Two profitless delays for an SEIRS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission and pulse vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng Xinzhu; Jiao Jianjun; Chen Lansun

2009-01-01

Since the investigation of impulsive delay differential equations is beginning, the literature on delay epidemic models with pulse vaccination is not extensive. In this paper, we propose a new SEIRS epidemic disease model with two profitless delays and vertical transmission, and analyze the dynamics behaviors of the model under pulse vaccination. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain a 'infection-free' periodic solution, further, show that the 'infection-free' periodic solution is globally attractive when some parameters of the model are under appropriate conditions. Using a new modeling method, we obtain sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic model with pulse vaccination. We show that time delays, pulse vaccination and vertical transmission can bring different effects on the dynamics behaviors of the model by numerical analysis. Our results also show the delays are 'profitless'. In this paper, the main feature is to introduce two discrete time delays, vertical transmission and impulse into SEIRS epidemic model and to give pulse vaccination strategies.

Mathematical models for therapeutic approaches to control HIV disease transmission

CERN Document Server

Roy, Priti Kumar

2015-01-01

The book discusses different therapeutic approaches based on different mathematical models to control the HIV/AIDS disease transmission. It uses clinical data, collected from different cited sources, to formulate the deterministic as well as stochastic mathematical models of HIV/AIDS. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic and stochastic points of view, to optimal control strategy with perfect drug adherence and also tries to seek viewpoints of the same issue from different angles with various mathematical models to computer simulations. The book presents essential methods and techniques for students who are interested in designing epidemiological models on HIV/AIDS. It also guides research scientists, working in the periphery of mathematical modeling, and helps them to explore a hypothetical method by examining its consequences in the form of a mathematical modelling and making some scientific predictions. The model equations, mathematical analysis and several numerical simulations that are...

Deer density and disease prevalence influence transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in White-tailed Deer

Science.gov (United States)

Samuel, Michael D.; Richards, Bryan J.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul; Nicholas S. Keuler,; Timothy R. Van Deelen,

2013-01-01

Host-parasite dynamics and strategies for managing infectious diseases of wildlife depend on the functional relationship between disease transmission rates and host density. However, the disease transmission function is rarely known for free-living wildlife, leading to uncertainty regarding the impacts of diseases on host populations and effective control actions. We evaluated the influence of deer density, landscape features, and soil clay content on transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in young (disease prevalence and density of infected deer, performed better than simple density- and frequency-dependent models. Our results indicate a combination of social structure, non-linear relationships between infectious contact and deer density, and distribution of disease among groups are important factors driving CWD infection in young deer. The landscape covariates % deciduous forest cover and forest edge density also were positively associated with infection rates, but soil clay content had no measurable influences on CWD transmission. Lack of strong density-dependent transmission rates indicates that controlling CWD by reducing deer density will be difficult. The consequences of non-linear disease transmission and aggregation of disease on cervid populations deserves further consideration.

Insights into mechanisms of transmission and pathogenesis from transgenic mouse models of prion diseases

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Moreno, Julie A.; Telling, Glenn C.

2018-01-01

Prions represent a new paradigm of protein-mediated information transfer. In the case of mammals, prions are the cause of fatal, transmissible neurodegenerative diseases, sometimes referred to as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE’s), which frequently occur as epidemics. An increasing body of evidence indicates that the canonical mechanism of conformational corruption of cellular prion protein (PrPC) by the pathogenic isoform (PrPSc) that is the basis of prion formation in TSE’s, is common to a spectrum of proteins associated with various additional human neurodegenerative disorders, including the more common Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases. The peerless infectious properties of TSE prions, and the unparalleled tools for their study, therefore enable elucidation of mechanisms of template-mediated conformational propagation that are generally applicable to these related disease states. Many unresolved issues remain including the exact molecular nature of the prion, the detailed cellular and molecular mechanisms of prion propagation, and the means by which prion diseases can be both genetic and infectious. In addition, we know little about the mechanism by which neurons degenerate during prion diseases. Tied to this, the physiological role of the normal form of the prion protein remains unclear and it is uncertain whether or not loss of this function contributes to prion pathogenesis. The factors governing the transmission of prions between species remain unclear, in particular the means by which prion strains and PrP primary structure interact to affect inter-species prion transmission. Despite all these unknowns, advances in our understanding of prions have occurred because of their transmissibility to experimental animals and the development of transgenic (Tg) mouse models has done much to further our understanding about various aspects of prion biology. In this review we will focus on advances in our understanding of prion biology that

Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management

Science.gov (United States)

Potapov, Alex; Merrill, Evelyn; Pybus, Margo; Lewis, Mark A.

2016-01-01

We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD. PMID:26963921

Clozapine and GABA transmission in schizophrenia disease models: establishing principles to guide treatments.

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O'Connor, William T; O'Shea, Sean D

2015-06-01

Schizophrenia disease models are necessary to elucidate underlying changes and to establish new therapeutic strategies towards a stage where drug efficacy in schizophrenia (against all classes of symptoms) can be predicted. Here we summarise the evidence for a GABA dysfunction in schizophrenia and review the functional neuroanatomy of five pathways implicated in schizophrenia, namely the mesocortical, mesolimbic, ventral striopallidal, dorsal striopallidal and perforant pathways including the role of local GABA transmission and we describe the effect of clozapine on local neurotransmitter release. This review also evaluates psychotropic drug-induced, neurodevelopmental and environmental disease models including their compatibility with brain microdialysis. The validity of disease models including face, construct, etiological and predictive validity and how these models constitute theories about this illness is also addressed. A disease model based on the effect of the abrupt withdrawal of clozapine on GABA release is also described. The review concludes that while no single animal model is entirely successful in reproducing schizophreniform symptomatology, a disease model based on an ability to prevent and/or reverse the abrupt clozapine discontinuation-induced changes in GABA release in brain regions implicated in schizophrenia may be useful for hypothesis testing and for in vivo screening of novel ligands not limited to a single pharmacological class. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Schley, David; Whittle, Sophie; Taylor, Michael; Kiss, Istvan Zoltan

2012-09-15

Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution. Individual based network models are considered together with one- and two-class compartmental models, for which the final epidemic size is calculated as a function of the probability of disease transmission occurring during a given physical contact between two individuals. For numerical results the special cases of a viral disease with a fast recovery rate (foot-and-mouth disease) and a bacterial disease with a slow recovery rate (brucellosis) amongst sheep are considered. Quantitative results from observational studies of physical contact amongst domestic sheep are applied and results from the differently structured flocks (ewes with newborn lambs, ewes with nearly weaned lambs and ewes only) compared. These indicate that the breeding cycle leads to significant changes in the expected basic reproduction ratio of diseases. The observed heterogeneity of contacts amongst animals is best captured by full network simulations, although simple compartmental models describe the key features of an outbreak but, as expected, often overestimate the speed of an outbreak. Here the weights of contacts are heterogeneous, with many low weight links. However, due to the well-connected nature of the networks, this has little effect and differences between models remain small. These results indicate that simple compartmental models can be a useful tool for modelling real-world flocks; their applicability will be greater still for more homogeneously mixed livestock, which could be promoted by higher intensity farming practices. Copyright © 2012

A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

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Rachel Waema Mbogo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

Identifying Nodes of Transmission in Disease Diffusion Through Social Media

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, David Sebastian

The spread of infectious diseases can be described in terms of three interrelated components: interaction, movement, and scale. Transmission between individuals requires some form of interaction, which is dependent on the pathogen, to occur. Diseases spread through the movement of their hosts; they spread across many spatial scales from local neighborhoods to countries, or temporal scales from days to years, or periodic intervals. Prior research into the spread of disease have examined diffusion processes retrospectively at regional or country levels, or developed differential equation or simulation models of the dynamics of disease transmission. While some of the more recent models incorporate all three components, they are limited in the way they understand where interactions occur. The focus has been on home or work, including contact with family or coworkers. The models reflect a lack of knowledge about how transmissions are made at specific locations in time, so-called nodes of transmission. That is, how individuals' intersections in time and space function in disease transmission. This project sought to use the three factors of interaction, movement, and scale to better understand the spread of disease in terms of the place of interaction called the node of transmission. The overarching objective of this research was: how can nodes of transmission be identified through individual activity spaces incorporating the three factors of infectious disease spread: interaction, movement, and scale?. This objective fed into three main sub-objectives: defining nodes of transmission, developing an appropriate methodology to identifying nodes of transmission, and applying it using geotagged social media data from Twitter. To develop an appropriate framework, this research relied on time geography, and traditional disease. This particularly relied on the idea of bundling to create the nodes, and a nesting effect that integrated scale. The data source used to identify nodes

Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Shi-Fu; Li, Shen-Long; Huang, Liu-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Sun, Gui-Quan; Gai, Zhong-Tao; Jin, Zhen

2015-09-08

Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

Quantification of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus Transmission Rates Using Published Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goris, N.E.; Eble, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Clercq, K.

2009-01-01

Foot-and-mouth disease is an extremely infectious and devastating disease affecting all species of cloven-hoofed animals. To understand the epidemiology of the causative virus and predict viral transmission dynamics, quantified transmission parameters are essential to decision makers and modellers

Transmission Model of Hepatitis B Virus with the Migration Effect

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Muhammad Altaf Khan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a globally infectious disease. Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission is an interesting research area. In this paper, we present characteristics of HBV virus transmission in the form of a mathematical model. We analyzed the effect of immigrants in the model to study the effect of immigrants for the host population. We added the following flow parameters: “the transmission between migrated and exposed class” and “the transmission between migrated and acute class.” With these new features, we obtained a compartment model of six differential equations. First, we find the basic threshold quantity Ro and then find the local asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we find the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Previous similar publications have not added the kind of information about the numerical results of the model. In our case, from numerical simulation, a detailed discussion of the parameters and their numerical results is presented. We claim that with these assumptions and by adding the migrated class, the model informs policy for governments, to be aware of the immigrants and subject them to tests about the disease status. Immigrants for short visits and students should be subjected to tests to reduce the number of immigrants with disease.

Predictive modeling of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Caldwell, J.; Krystosik, A.; Mutuku, F.; Ndenga, B.; LaBeaud, D.; Mordecai, E.

2017-12-01

Approximately 390 million people are exposed to dengue virus every year, and with no widely available treatments or vaccines, predictive models of disease risk are valuable tools for vector control and disease prevention. The aim of this study was to modify and improve climate-driven predictive models of dengue vector abundance (Aedes spp. mosquitoes) and viral transmission to people in Kenya. We simulated disease transmission using a temperature-driven mechanistic model and compared model predictions with vector trap data for larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes collected between 2014 and 2017 at four sites across urban and rural villages in Kenya. We tested predictive capacity of our models using four temperature measurements (minimum, maximum, range, and anomalies) across daily, weekly, and monthly time scales. Our results indicate seasonal temperature variation is a key driving factor of Aedes mosquito abundance and disease transmission. These models can help vector control programs target specific locations and times when vectors are likely to be present, and can be modified for other Aedes-transmitted diseases and arboviral endemic regions around the world.

Frequency-Dependent Disease Transmission and the Dynamics of the Silene-Ustilago Host-Pathogen System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thrall, P.H.; Biere, A.; Uyenoyama, M.K.

1995-01-01

Models incorporating density-dependent disease transmission functions generally provide a good fit for airborne and directly transmitted bacterial or viral diseases. However, the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted and vector-borne diseases are likely to be frequency- rather than density-

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

The importance of age dependent mortality and the extrinsic incubation period in models of mosquito-borne disease transmission and control.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve E Bellan

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Nearly all mathematical models of vector-borne diseases have assumed that vectors die at constant rates. However, recent empirical research suggests that mosquito mortality rates are frequently age dependent. This work develops a simple mathematical model to assess how relaxing the classical assumption of constant mortality affects the predicted effectiveness of anti-vectorial interventions. The effectiveness of mosquito control when mosquitoes die at age dependent rates was also compared across different extrinsic incubation periods. Compared to a more realistic age dependent model, constant mortality models overestimated the sensitivity of disease transmission to interventions that reduce mosquito survival. Interventions that reduce mosquito survival were also found to be slightly less effective when implemented in systems with shorter EIPs. Future transmission models that examine anti-vectorial interventions should incorporate realistic age dependent mortality rates.

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: Implications for disease spread and management

Science.gov (United States)

Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.

Spatio-temporal transmission patterns of black-band disease in a coral community.

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Assaf Zvuloni

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transmission mechanisms of black-band disease (BBD in coral reefs are poorly understood, although this disease is considered to be one of the most widespread and destructive coral infectious diseases. The major objective of this study was to assess transmission mechanisms of BBD in the field based on the spatio-temporal patterns of the disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 3,175 susceptible and infected corals were mapped over an area of 10x10 m in Eilat (northern Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea and the distribution of the disease was examined monthly throughout almost two full disease cycles (June 2006-December 2007. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses were applied to infer the transmission pattern of the disease and to calculate key epidemiological parameters such as (basic reproduction number. We show that the prevalence of the disease is strongly associated with high water temperature. When water temperatures rise and disease prevalence increases, infected corals exhibit aggregated distributions on small spatial scales of up to 1.9 m. Additionally, newly-infected corals clearly appear in proximity to existing infected corals and in a few cases in direct contact with them. We also present and test a model of water-borne infection, indicating that the likelihood of a susceptible coral becoming infected is defined by its spatial location and by the relative spatial distribution of nearby infected corals found in the site. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide evidence that local transmission, but not necessarily by direct contact, is likely to be an important factor in the spread of the disease over the tested spatial scale. In the absence of potential disease vectors with limited mobility (e.g., snails, fireworms in the studied site, water-borne infection is likely to be a significant transmission mechanism of BBD. Our suggested model of water-borne transmission supports this hypothesis. The spatio-temporal analysis also points

Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

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Chowell Gerardo

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs, using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-05-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Don Klinkenberg

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection

Molecular Modeling of Prion Transmission to Humans

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Etienne Levavasseur

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Using different prion strains, such as the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease agent and the atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents, and using transgenic mice expressing human or bovine prion protein, we assessed the reliability of protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA to model interspecies and genetic barriers to prion transmission. We compared our PMCA results with in vivo transmission data characterized by attack rates, i.e., the percentage of inoculated mice that developed the disease. Using 19 seed/substrate combinations, we observed that a significant PMCA amplification was only obtained when the mouse line used as substrate is susceptible to the corresponding strain. Our results suggest that PMCA provides a useful tool to study genetic barriers to transmission and to study the zoonotic potential of emerging prion strains.

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

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Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

2015-06-19

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L.

2018-01-01

With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. PMID:29555754

Models of marine molluscan diseases: Trends and challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Eric N; Hofmann, Eileen E

2015-10-01

Disease effects on host population dynamics and the transmission of pathogens between hosts are two important challenges for understanding how epizootics wax and wane and how disease influences host population dynamics. For the management of marine shellfish resources, marine diseases pose additional challenges in early intervention after the appearance of disease, management of the diseased population to limit a decline in host abundance, and application of measures to restrain that decline once it occurs. Mathematical models provide one approach for quantifying these effects and addressing the competing goals of managing the diseased population versus managing the disease. The majority of models for molluscan diseases fall into three categories distinguished by these competing goals. (1) Models that consider disease effects on the host population tend to focus on pathogen proliferation within the host. Many of the well-known molluscan diseases are pandemic, in that they routinely reach high prevalence rapidly over large geographic expanses, are characterized by transmission that does not depend upon a local source, and exert a significant influence on host population dynamics. Models focused on disease proliferation examine the influence of environmental change on host population metrics and provide a basis to better manage diseased stocks. Such models are readily adapted to questions of fishery management and habitat restoration. (2) Transmission models are designed to understand the mechanisms triggering epizootics, identify factors impeding epizootic development, and evaluate controls on the rate of disease spread over the host's range. Transmission models have been used extensively to study terrestrial diseases, yet little attention has been given to their potential for understanding the epidemiology of marine molluscan diseases. For management of diseases of wild stocks, transmission models open up a range of options, including the application of area

Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

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Jason Asher

2018-03-01

Full Text Available We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics. Keywords: Ebola, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference

Mother to offspring transmission of chronic wasting disease in reeves' muntjac deer.

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Amy V Nalls

Full Text Available The horizontal transmission of prion diseases has been well characterized in bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, chronic wasting disease (CWD of deer and elk and scrapie of sheep, and has been regarded as the primary mode of transmission. Few studies have monitored the possibility of vertical transmission occurring within an infected mother during pregnancy. To study the potential for and pathway of vertical transmission of CWD in the native cervid species, we used a small cervid model-the polyestrous breeding, indoor maintainable, Reeves' muntjac deer-and determined that the susceptibility and pathogenesis of CWD in these deer reproduce that in native mule and white-tailed deer. Moreover, we demonstrate here that CWD prions are transmitted from doe to fawn. Maternal CWD infection also appears to result in lower percentage of live birth offspring. In addition, evolving evidence from protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA assays on fetal tissues suggest that covert prion infection occurs in utero. Overall, our findings demonstrate that transmission of prions from mother to offspring can occur, and may be underestimated for all prion diseases.

Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases

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E. Brooks-Pollock

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

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Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

2015-08-01

A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights.

Science.gov (United States)

Hertzberg, Vicki Stover; Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L

2018-04-03

With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Transmission of infectious diseases en route to habitat hotspots.

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Benavides, Julio; Walsh, Peter D; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Raymond, Michel; Caillaud, Damien

2012-01-01

The spread of infectious diseases in wildlife populations is influenced by patterns of between-host contacts. Habitat "hotspots"--places attracting a large numbers of individuals or social groups--can significantly alter contact patterns and, hence, disease propagation. Research on the importance of habitat hotspots in wildlife epidemiology has primarily focused on how inter-individual contacts occurring at the hotspot itself increase disease transmission. However, in territorial animals, epidemiologically important contacts may primarily occur as animals cross through territories of conspecifics en route to habitat hotspots. So far, the phenomenon has received little attention. Here, we investigate the importance of these contacts in the case where infectious individuals keep visiting the hotspots and in the case where these individuals are not able to travel to the hotspot any more. We developed a simulation epidemiological model to investigate both cases in a scenario when transmission at the hotspot does not occur. We find that (i) hotspots still exacerbate epidemics, (ii) when infectious individuals do not travel to the hotspot, the most vulnerable individuals are those residing at intermediate distances from the hotspot rather than nearby, and (iii) the epidemiological vulnerability of a population is the highest when the number of hotspots is intermediate. By altering animal movements in their vicinity, habitat hotspots can thus strongly increase the spread of infectious diseases, even when disease transmission does not occur at the hotspot itself. Interestingly, when animals only visit the nearest hotspot, creating additional artificial hotspots, rather than reducing their number, may be an efficient disease control measure.

Multi-agent systems in epidemiology: a first step for computational biology in the study of vector-borne disease transmission

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Guégan Jean-François

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational biology is often associated with genetic or genomic studies only. However, thanks to the increase of computational resources, computational models are appreciated as useful tools in many other scientific fields. Such modeling systems are particularly relevant for the study of complex systems, like the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases. So far, mathematical models remain the main tool for the epidemiological and ecological analysis of infectious diseases, with SIR models could be seen as an implicit standard in epidemiology. Unfortunately, these models are based on differential equations and, therefore, can become very rapidly unmanageable due to the too many parameters which need to be taken into consideration. For instance, in the case of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in wildlife many different potential host species could be involved in the life-cycle of disease transmission, and SIR models might not be the most suitable tool to truly capture the overall disease circulation within that environment. This limitation underlines the necessity to develop a standard spatial model that can cope with the transmission of disease in realistic ecosystems. Results Computational biology may prove to be flexible enough to take into account the natural complexity observed in both natural and man-made ecosystems. In this paper, we propose a new computational model to study the transmission of infectious diseases in a spatially explicit context. We developed a multi-agent system model for vector-borne disease transmission in a realistic spatial environment. Conclusion Here we describe in detail the general behavior of this model that we hope will become a standard reference for the study of vector-borne disease transmission in wildlife. To conclude, we show how this simple model could be easily adapted and modified to be used as a common framework for further research developments in this field.

Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

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Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

2011-12-01

Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

Research on an Infectious Disease Transmission by Flocking Birds

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Mingsheng Tang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The swarm intelligence is becoming a hot topic. The flocking of birds is a natural phenomenon, which is formed and organized without central or external controls for some benefits (e.g., reduction of energy consummation. However, the flocking also has some negative effects on the human, as the infectious disease H7N9 will easily be transmited from the denser flocking birds to the human. Zombie-city model has been proposed to help analyzing and modeling the flocking birds and the artificial society. This paper focuses on the H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and from the flocking birds to the human. And some interesting results have been shown: (1 only some simple rules could result in an emergence such as the flocking; (2 the minimum distance between birds could affect H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and even affect the virus transmissions from the flocking birds to the human.

Research on an infectious disease transmission by flocking birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Mingsheng; Mao, Xinjun; Guessoum, Zahia

2013-01-01

The swarm intelligence is becoming a hot topic. The flocking of birds is a natural phenomenon, which is formed and organized without central or external controls for some benefits (e.g., reduction of energy consummation). However, the flocking also has some negative effects on the human, as the infectious disease H7N9 will easily be transmited from the denser flocking birds to the human. Zombie-city model has been proposed to help analyzing and modeling the flocking birds and the artificial society. This paper focuses on the H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and from the flocking birds to the human. And some interesting results have been shown: (1) only some simple rules could result in an emergence such as the flocking; (2) the minimum distance between birds could affect H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and even affect the virus transmissions from the flocking birds to the human.

Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission.

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Barnett, Tony; Fournié, Guillaume; Gupta, Sunetra; Seeley, Janet

2015-01-01

Incorporation of 'social' variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection - a highly social process in human populations - may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Émile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of 'social currents'. Such 'currents' are what we might today describe as 'emergent properties', specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to represent complex social and economic processes bearing on infectious disease transmission.

Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

OpenAIRE

Shi Chen; Brad J. White; Michael W. Sanderson; David E. Amrine; Amiyaal Ilany; Cristina Lanzas

2014-01-01

Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmissio...

Efficient transmission and characterization of creutzfeldt-jakob disease strains in bank voles.

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2006-02-01

Full Text Available Transmission of prions between species is limited by the "species barrier," which hampers a full characterization of human prion strains in the mouse model. We report that the efficiency of primary transmission of prions from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease patients to a wild rodent species, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus, is comparable to that reported in transgenic mice carrying human prion protein, in spite of a low prion protein-sequence homology between man and vole. Voles infected with sporadic and genetic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease isolates show strain-specific patterns of spongiform degeneration and pathological prion protein-deposition, and accumulate protease-resistant prion protein with biochemical properties similar to the human counterpart. Adaptation of genetic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease isolates to voles shows little or no evidence of a transmission barrier, in contrast to the striking barriers observed during transmission of mouse, hamster, and sheep prions to voles. Our results imply that in voles there is no clear relationship between the degree of homology of the prion protein of the donor and recipient species and susceptibility, consistent with the view that the prion strain gives a major contribution to the species barrier. The vole is therefore a valuable model to study human prion diversity and, being susceptible to a range of animal prions, represents a unique tool for comparing isolates from different species.

The effect of recruitment rate and other demographic parameters on the transmission of dengue disease

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Supriatna, A. K.; Anggriani, N.

2015-03-01

One of important factors which always appears in most of dengue transmission mathematical model is the number of new susceptible recruited into the susceptible compartment. In this paper we discuss the effect of different rates of recruitment on the transmission of dengue disease. We choose a dengue transmission model with the most realistic form of recruitment rate and analyze the effect of environmental change to the transmission of dengue based on the selected model. We model the effect of environmental change by considering that it can alter the value of mosquito's carrying capacity and mosquito's death rate. We found that the most prevalent effect of the environmental change to the transmission of dengue is when it can alter the death rate of the mosquitoes.

Age patterns and transmission characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in China

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Jijun Zhao

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD has circulated in China and caused yearly outbreak. To understand the transmission of the disease and to assess the spatial variation in cases reported, we examined age-specific transmission characteristics and reporting rates of HFMD for 31 provinces in mainland China. Methods We first analyzed incidence spatial patterns and age-specific incidence patterns using dataset from 2008 to 2012. Transmission characteristics were estimated based on catalytic model. Reporting rates were estimated using a simple mass action model from “Time Series Susceptible Infectious Recovered” (TSIR modeling. Results We found age-specific spatial incidence patterns: age-specific proportions of HFMD cases varied geographically in China; larger case percentage was among children of 3–5 years old in the northern part of China and was among children of 0–2 years old in the southern part of China. Our analysis results revealed that: 1 reporting rates and transmission characteristics including the average age at infection, the force of infection and the basic reproduction number varied geographically in China; 2 patterns of the age-specific force of infection for 30 provinces were similar to that of childhood infections in developed countries; the age group that had the highest infection risk was 3–5 years old in 30 provinces, and 10–14 years old in Tibet; 3 a large difference in HFMD transmission existed between northwest region and southeast region; 4 transmission characteristics determined incidence patterns: the higher the disease transmission in a province, the earlier the annual seasonality started and the more case percentage was among children 0–2 years old and less among 3–5 years old. Conclusion Because HFMD has higher transmission than most childhood infections reported, high effective vaccine coverage is needed to substantially reduce HFMD incidence. Control measures before the vaccine

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes.

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LaDeau, Shannon L; Allan, Brian F; Leisnham, Paul T; Levy, Michael Z

2015-07-01

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

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Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

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Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

2013-11-01

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

A macroecological characterization of infectious disease transmission:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen-Ranberg, Emilie Ulrikka

2017-01-01

Presentation: Per M. Jensen*, Miguel L. Grilo, Christian B. Pipper, Emilie U. Andersen-Ranberg. A macroecological characterization of infectious disease transmission: the cases of Mycobacterium and Leptospira sp. The 2017 OIKOS meeting, 10th -11th March 2017, Copenhagen, Denmark......Presentation: Per M. Jensen*, Miguel L. Grilo, Christian B. Pipper, Emilie U. Andersen-Ranberg. A macroecological characterization of infectious disease transmission: the cases of Mycobacterium and Leptospira sp. The 2017 OIKOS meeting, 10th -11th March 2017, Copenhagen, Denmark...

Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

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Mathieu Andraud

Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

Modeling effective transmission pathways and control of the world's most successful parasite.

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Turner, Matthew; Lenhart, Suzanne; Rosenthal, Benjamin; Zhao, Xiaopeng

2013-06-01

Toxoplasma gondii(T. gondii) is a single-celled, intracellular protozoan responsible for the disease toxoplasmosis. The parasite is prevalent worldwide, and it infects all warm-blooded vertebrates. Consumption of meats in which this parasite has encysted confers risk of infection to people and other animals, as does ingestion of water or foods contaminated with environmentally resistant oocysts excreted by cats. Vertical transmission (from mother to offspring) is also possible, leading to disease risk and contributing additional means of ensuring perpetuation of transmission. In this work, we adopt a differential equation model to investigate the effective transmission pathways of T. gondii, as well as potential control mechanisms. Detailed analyses are carried out to examine the significance of transmission routes, virulence, vertical transmission, parasite-induced changes in host behavior, and controls based on vaccination and harvesting. Modeling and analysis efforts may shed insights into understanding the complex life cycle of T. gondii. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Viral Aerosol Transmission and Detection

KAUST Repository

Khalid, Maryam; Amin, Osama; Ahmed, Sajid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the spread mechanism of diseases in the atmosphere as an engineering problem. Among the viral transmission mechanisms that do not include physical contact, aerosol transmission is the most significant mode of transmission where virus-laden droplets are carried over long distances by wind. In this work, we focus on aerosol transmission of virus and introduce the idea of viewing virus transmission through aerosols and their transport as a molecular communication problem, where one has no control over transmission source but a robust receiver can be designed using nano-biosensors. To investigate this idea, a complete system is presented and end-toend mathematical model for the aerosol transmission channel is derived under certain constraints and boundary conditions. In addition to transmitter and channel, a receiver architecture composed of air sampler and Silicon Nanowire field effect transistor is also discussed. Furthermore, a detection problem is formulated for which maximum likelihood decision rule and the corresponding missed detection probability is discussed. At the end, simulation results are presented to investigate the parameters that affect the performance and justify the feasibility of proposed setup in related applications.

A mathematical model of Chagas disease transmission

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Hidayat, Dayat; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Nuraini, Nuning

2018-03-01

Chagas disease is a parasitic infection caused by protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi which is transmitted to human by insects of the subfamily Triatominae, including Rhodnius prolixus. This disease is a major problem in several countries of Latin America. A mathematical model of Chagas disease with separate vector reservoir and a neighboring human resident is constructed. The basic reproductive ratio is obtained and stability analysis of the equilibria is shown. We also performed sensitivity populations dynamics of infected humans and infected insects based on migration rate, carrying capacity, and infection rate parameters. Our findings showed that the dynamics of the infected human and insect is mostly affected by carrying capacity insect in the settlement.

Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease.

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Gerardo Chowell

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who seek hospitalization together with hospital capacity to achieve epidemic control. However, further modeling efforts of EVD transmission and control in West Africa should utilize the spatial-temporal patterns of spread in the region by incorporating spatial heterogeneity in the transmission process. Detailed datasets are urgently needed to characterize temporal changes in population behaviors, contact networks at different spatial scales, population mobility patterns, adherence to infection control measures in hospital settings, and hospitalization and reporting rates.

Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.

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Fengchen Liu

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21% in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, -0.15% (SD 1.85%, between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a

Quantifying Transmission.

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Woolhouse, Mark

2017-07-01

Transmissibility is the defining characteristic of infectious diseases. Quantifying transmission matters for understanding infectious disease epidemiology and designing evidence-based disease control programs. Tracing individual transmission events can be achieved by epidemiological investigation coupled with pathogen typing or genome sequencing. Individual infectiousness can be estimated by measuring pathogen loads, but few studies have directly estimated the ability of infected hosts to transmit to uninfected hosts. Individuals' opportunities to transmit infection are dependent on behavioral and other risk factors relevant given the transmission route of the pathogen concerned. Transmission at the population level can be quantified through knowledge of risk factors in the population or phylogeographic analysis of pathogen sequence data. Mathematical model-based approaches require estimation of the per capita transmission rate and basic reproduction number, obtained by fitting models to case data and/or analysis of pathogen sequence data. Heterogeneities in infectiousness, contact behavior, and susceptibility can have substantial effects on the epidemiology of an infectious disease, so estimates of only mean values may be insufficient. For some pathogens, super-shedders (infected individuals who are highly infectious) and super-spreaders (individuals with more opportunities to transmit infection) may be important. Future work on quantifying transmission should involve integrated analyses of multiple data sources.

Human prion diseases: surgical lessons learned from iatrogenic prion transmission.

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Bonda, David J; Manjila, Sunil; Mehndiratta, Prachi; Khan, Fahd; Miller, Benjamin R; Onwuzulike, Kaine; Puoti, Gianfranco; Cohen, Mark L; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Cali, Ignazio

2016-07-01

The human prion diseases, or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, have captivated our imaginations since their discovery in the Fore linguistic group in Papua New Guinea in the 1950s. The mysterious and poorly understood "infectious protein" has become somewhat of a household name in many regions across the globe. From bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly identified as mad cow disease, to endocannibalism, media outlets have capitalized on these devastatingly fatal neurological conditions. Interestingly, since their discovery, there have been more than 492 incidents of iatrogenic transmission of prion diseases, largely resulting from prion-contaminated growth hormone and dura mater grafts. Although fewer than 9 cases of probable iatrogenic neurosurgical cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) have been reported worldwide, the likelihood of some missed cases and the potential for prion transmission by neurosurgery create considerable concern. Laboratory studies indicate that standard decontamination and sterilization procedures may be insufficient to completely remove infectivity from prion-contaminated instruments. In this unfortunate event, the instruments may transmit the prion disease to others. Much caution therefore should be taken in the absence of strong evidence against the presence of a prion disease in a neurosurgical patient. While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) have devised risk assessment and decontamination protocols for the prevention of iatrogenic transmission of the prion diseases, incidents of possible exposure to prions have unfortunately occurred in the United States. In this article, the authors outline the historical discoveries that led from kuru to the identification and isolation of the pathological prion proteins in addition to providing a brief description of human prion diseases and iatrogenic forms of CJD, a brief history of prion disease nosocomial transmission

Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

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F.B. Agusto

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals. The Zika model is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Our model shows that asymptomatic individuals amplify the disease burden in the community, and the most important parameters for ZIKV spread are the death rate of mosquitoes, the mosquito biting rate, the mosquito recruitment rate, and the transmission per contact to mosquitoes and to adult humans. Scenario exploration indicates that personal-protection is a more effective control strategy than mosquito-reduction strategy. It also shows that delaying conception reduces the number of microcephaly cases, although this does little to prevent Zika transmission in the broader community. However, by coupling aggressive vector control and personal protection use, it is possible to reduce both microcephaly and Zika transmission. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 92B05, 93A30, 93C15. Keywords: Zika virus, Vertical transmission, Microcephaly, Stability, Control

Influence of breaking the symmetry between disease transmission and information propagation networks on stepwise decisions concerning vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukuda, Eriko; Tanimoto, Jun; Akimoto, Mitsuhiro

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We construct a model using epidemiological and vaccination dynamics. • We study effects of information propagation networks on disease propagation. • Information propagation networks affect the spatial structures of vaccinators. • Disease transmission network affects the information propagation network results. • Vaccination cost does not alter the effects of network-topology symmetry breaking. - Abstract: In previous epidemiological studies that address adaptive vaccination decisions, individuals generally act within a single network, which models the population structure. However, in reality, people are typically members of multiplex networks, which have various community structures. For example, a disease transmission network, which directly transmits infectious diseases, does not necessarily correspond with an information propagation network, in which individuals directly or indirectly exchange information concerning health conditions and vaccination strategies. The latter network may also be used for strategic interaction (strategy adaptation) concerning vaccination. Therefore, in order to reflect this feature, we consider the vaccination dynamics of structured populations whose members simultaneously belong to two types of networks: disease transmission and information propagation. Applying intensive numerical calculations, we determine that if the disease transmission network is modeled using a regular graph, such as a lattice population or random regular graph containing individuals of equivalent degrees, individuals should base their vaccination decisions on a different type of network. However, if the disease transmission network is a degree-heterogeneous graph, such as the Barabási–Albert scale-free network, which has a heterogeneous degree according to power low, then using the same network for information propagation more effectively prevents the spread of epidemics. Furthermore, our conclusions are unaffected by the relative

Analysis of a malaria model with mosquito-dependent transmission ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

model for the spread of malaria in human and mosquito population. ... tures, high humidity and water bodies allow mosquito and parasites to reproduce. The ... understand the main parameters in the transmission of the disease and to develop ...

Deterministic SLIR model for tuberculosis disease mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Aziz, Nazrina; Diah, Ijlal Mohd; Ahmad, Nazihah; Kasim, Maznah Mat

2017-11-01

Tuberculosis (TB) occurs worldwide. It can be transmitted to others directly through air when active TB persons sneeze, cough or spit. In Malaysia, it was reported that TB cases had been recognized as one of the most infectious disease that lead to death. Disease mapping is one of the methods that can be used as the prevention strategies since it can displays clear picture for the high-low risk areas. Important thing that need to be considered when studying the disease occurrence is relative risk estimation. The transmission of TB disease is studied through mathematical model. Therefore, in this study, deterministic SLIR models are used to estimate relative risk for TB disease transmission.

An epidemiological model of virus transmission in salmonid fishes of the Columbia River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, Paige F. B.; Breyta, Rachel; Brito, Ilana L.; Kurath, Gael; LaDeau, Shannon L.

2018-01-01

We have developed a dynamic epidemiological model informed by records of viral presence and genotypes to evaluate potential transmission routes maintaining a viral pathogen in economically and culturally important anadromous fish populations. In the Columbia River Basin, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) causes severe disease, predominantly in juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and less frequently in Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Mortality events following IHNV infection can be devastating for individual hatchery programs. Despite reports of high local mortality and extensive surveillance efforts, there are questions about how viral transmission is maintained. Modeling this system offers important insights into disease transmission in natural aquatic systems, as well as about the data requirements for generating accurate estimates about transmission routes and infection probabilities. We simulated six scenarios in which testing rates and the relative importance of different transmission routes varied. The simulations demonstrated that the model accurately identified routes of transmission and inferred infection probabilities accurately when there was testing of all cohort-sites. When testing records were incomplete, the model accurately inferred which transmission routes exposed particular cohort-sites but generated biased infection probabilities given exposure. After validating the model and generating guidelines for result interpretation, we applied the model to data from 14 annual cohorts (2000–2013) at 24 focal sites in a sub-region of the Columbia River Basin, the lower Columbia River (LCR), to quantify the relative importance of potential transmission routes in this focal sub-region. We demonstrate that exposure to IHNV via the return migration of adult fish is an important route for maintaining IHNV in the LCR sub-region, and the probability of infection following this exposure was relatively high at 0.16. Although only 1% of

Multiple mechanisms of transmission of the Caribbean coral disease white plague

Science.gov (United States)

Clemens, E.; Brandt, M. E.

2015-12-01

White plague is one of the most devastating coral diseases in the Caribbean, and yet important aspects of its epidemiology, including how the disease transmits, remain unknown. This study tested potential mechanisms and rates of transmission of white plague in a laboratory setting. Transmission mechanisms including the transport of water, contact with macroalgae, and predation via corallivorous worms and snails were tested on the host species Orbicella annularis. Two of the tested mechanisms were shown to transmit disease: water transport and the corallivorous snail Coralliophila abbreviata. Between these transmission mechanisms, transport of water between a diseased coral and a healthy coral resulted in disease incidence significantly more frequently in exposed healthy corals. Transmission via water transport also occurred more quickly and was associated with higher rates of tissue loss (up to 3.5 cm d-1) than with the corallivorous snail treatment. In addition, water that was in contact with diseased corals but was filtered with a 0.22-μm filter prior to being introduced to apparently healthy corals also resulted in the transmission of disease signs, but at a much lower rate than when water was not filtered. This study has provided important information on the transmission potential of Caribbean white plague disease and highlights the need for a greater understanding of how these processes operate in the natural environment.

Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

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Rajat Malik

Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise Gopherus agassizii: implications for disease modelling and management

Science.gov (United States)

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Summary Most directly transmitted infections require some form of close contact between infectious and susceptible hosts to spread. Often disease models assume contacts are equal and use mean field estimates of transmission probability for all interactions with infectious hosts.

Aerobiology and Its Role in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases

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Aaron Fernstrom

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Aerobiology plays a fundamental role in the transmission of infectious diseases. As infectious disease and infection control practitioners continue employing contemporary techniques (e.g., computational fluid dynamics to study particle flow, polymerase chain reaction methodologies to quantify particle concentrations in various settings, and epidemiology to track the spread of disease, the central variables affecting the airborne transmission of pathogens are becoming better known. This paper reviews many of these aerobiological variables (e.g., particle size, particle type, the duration that particles can remain airborne, the distance that particles can travel, and meteorological and environmental factors, as well as the common origins of these infectious particles. We then review several real-world settings with known difficulties controlling the airborne transmission of infectious particles (e.g., office buildings, healthcare facilities, and commercial airplanes, while detailing the respective measures each of these industries is undertaking in its effort to ameliorate the transmission of airborne infectious diseases.

Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

Science.gov (United States)

Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

2016-10-01

SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

2017-05-04

Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the  Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.

Efficient prion disease transmission through common environmental materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Pritzkow, Sandra; Morales, Rodrigo; Lyon, Adam; Concha-Marambio, Luis; Urayama, Akihiko; Soto, Claudio

2018-03-02

Prion diseases are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases associated with a protein-based infectious agent, termed prion. Compelling evidence suggests that natural transmission of prion diseases is mediated by environmental contamination with infectious prions. We hypothesized that several natural and man-made materials, commonly found in the environments of wild and captive animals, can bind prions and may act as vectors for disease transmission. To test our hypothesis, we exposed surfaces composed of various common environmental materials ( i.e. wood, rocks, plastic, glass, cement, stainless steel, aluminum, and brass) to hamster-adapted 263K scrapie prions and studied their attachment and retention of infectivity in vitro and in vivo Our results indicated that these surfaces, with the sole exception of brass, efficiently bind, retain, and release prions. Prion replication was studied in vitro using the protein misfolding cyclic amplification technology, and infectivity of surface-bound prions was analyzed by intracerebrally challenging hamsters with contaminated implants. Our results revealed that virtually all prion-contaminated materials transmitted the disease at high rates. To investigate a more natural form of exposure to environmental contamination, we simply housed animals with large contaminated spheres made of the different materials under study. Strikingly, most of the hamsters developed classical clinical signs of prion disease and typical disease-associated brain changes. Our findings suggest that prion contamination of surfaces commonly present in the environment can be a source of disease transmission, thus expanding our understanding of the mechanisms for prion spreading in nature. © 2018 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Mathematical models for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: Challenges and prospects

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Kaliannagounder Krishnamoorthy

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical models developed for describing the dynamics of transmission, infection, disease and control of lymphatic filariasis (LF gained momentum following the 1997 World Health Assembly resolution and the launching of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF in 2000. Model applications could provide valuable inputs for making decisions while implementing large scale programmes. However these models need to be evaluated at different epidemiological settings for optimization and fine-tuning with new knowledge and understanding on infection/disease dynamics. Discussion EPIFIL and LYMFASIM are the two mathematical simulation models currently available for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. Both models have been used for prediction and evaluation of control programmes under research settings. Their widespread application in evaluating large-scale elimination programmes warrants validation of assumptions governing the dynamics of infection and disease in different epidemiological settings. Furthermore, the predictive power of the models for decision support can be enhanced by generating knowledge on some important issues that pose challenges and incorporating such knowledge into the models. We highlight factors related to the efficacy of the drugs of choice, their mode of action, and the possibility that drug resistance may develop; the role of vector-parasite combinations; the magnitude of transmission thresholds; host-parasite interactions and their effects on the dynamics of infection and immunity; parasite biology, and progression to LF-associated disease. Summary The two mathematical models developed offer potential decision making tools for transmission and control of LF. In view of the goals of the GPELF, the predictive power of these models needs to be enhanced for their wide-spread application in large scale programmes. Assimilation and translation of new information into the models is

Vector species richness increases haemorrhagic disease prevalence through functional diversity modulating the duration of seasonal transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Andrew W; Cleveland, Christopher A; Dallas, Tad A; Corn, Joseph L

2016-06-01

Although many parasites are transmitted between hosts by a suite of arthropod vectors, the impact of vector biodiversity on parasite transmission is poorly understood. Positive relationships between host infection prevalence and vector species richness (SR) may operate through multiple mechanisms, including (i) increased vector abundance, (ii) a sampling effect in which species of high vectorial capacity are more likely to occur in species-rich communities, and (iii) functional diversity whereby communities comprised species with distinct phenologies may extend the duration of seasonal transmission. Teasing such mechanisms apart is impeded by a lack of appropriate data, yet could highlight a neglected role for functional diversity in parasite transmission. We used statistical modelling of extensive host, vector and microparasite data to test the hypothesis that functional diversity leading to longer seasonal transmission explained variable levels of disease in a wildlife population. We additionally developed a simple transmission model to guide our expectation of how an increased transmission season translates to infection prevalence. Our study demonstrates that vector SR is associated with increased levels of disease reporting, but not via increases in vector abundance or via a sampling effect. Rather, the relationship operates by extending the length of seasonal transmission, in line with theoretical predictions.

Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

2012-01-01

The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

Effect of human movement on airborne disease transmission in an airplane cabin: study using numerical modeling and quantitative risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Zhuyang; To, Gin Nam Sze; Fu, Sau Chung; Chao, Christopher Yu-Hang; Weng, Wenguo; Huang, Quanyi

2014-08-06

Airborne transmission of respiratory infectious disease in indoor environment (e.g. airplane cabin, conference room, hospital, isolated room and inpatient ward) may cause outbreaks of infectious diseases, which may lead to many infection cases and significantly influences on the public health. This issue has received more and more attentions from academics. This work investigates the influence of human movement on the airborne transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in an airplane cabin by using an accurate human model in numerical simulation and comparing the influences of different human movement behaviors on disease transmission. The Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is adopted to simulate the dispersion and deposition of the expiratory aerosols. The dose-response model is used to assess the infection risks of the occupants. The likelihood analysis is performed as a hypothesis test on the input parameters and different human movement pattern assumptions. An in-flight SARS outbreak case is used for investigation. A moving person with different moving speeds is simulated to represent the movement behaviors. A digital human model was used to represent the detailed profile of the occupants, which was obtained by scanning a real thermal manikin using the 3D laser scanning system. The analysis results indicate that human movement can strengthen the downward transport of the aerosols, significantly reduce the overall deposition and removal rate of the suspended aerosols and increase the average infection risk in the cabin. The likelihood estimation result shows that the risk assessment results better fit the outcome of the outbreak case when the movements of the seated passengers are considered. The intake fraction of the moving person is significantly higher than most of the seated passengers. The infection risk distribution in the airplane cabin highly depends on the movement behaviors of the passengers and the index patient. The walking activities of the crew

Global attractivity and permanence of a stage-structured pest management SI model with time delay and diseased pest impulsive transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiao Jianjun; Meng Xinzhu; Chen Lansun

2008-01-01

In this paper, we consider a stage-structured pest management SI model with time delay and diseased pests impulsive transmission. We obtain the sufficient conditions of the global attractivity of pest-extinction boundary periodic solution and the permanence of the system. We also prove that all solutions of the system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Our results provide a reliable tactic basis for the practice of pest management

[Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

2013-09-01

Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

Foot-and-mouth Disease Transmission in Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tekleghiorghis, T.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Weerdmeester, K.; Dekker, A.

2016-01-01

In Africa, for the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), more information is needed on the spread of the disease at local, regional and inter-regional level. The aim of this review is to identify the role that animal husbandry, trade and wildlife have on the transmission of FMD and to provide

Seroprevalence of Antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum Sporozoite Antigens as Predictive Disease Transmission Markers in an Area of Ghana with Seasonal Malaria Transmission.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwadwo A Kusi

Full Text Available As an increasing number of malaria-endemic countries approach the disease elimination phase, sustenance of control efforts and effective monitoring are necessary to ensure success. Mathematical models that estimate anti-parasite antibody seroconversion rates are gaining relevance as more sensitive transmission intensity estimation tools. Models however estimate yearly seroconversion and seroreversion rates and usually predict long term changes in transmission, occurring years before the time of sampling. Another challenge is the identification of appropriate antigen targets since specific antibody levels must directly reflect changes in transmission patterns. We therefore investigated the potential of antibodies to sporozoite and blood stage antigens for detecting short term differences in malaria transmission in two communities in Northern Ghana with marked, seasonal transmission.Cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the rainy and dry seasons in two communities, one in close proximity to an irrigation dam and the other at least 20 Km away from the dam. Antibodies against the sporozoite-specific antigens circumsporozoite protein (CSP and Cell traversal for ookinetes and sporozoites (CelTOS and the classical blood stage antigen apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Antibody levels and seroprevalence were compared between surveys and between study communities. Antibody seroprevalence data were fitted to a modified reversible catalytic model to estimate the seroconversion and seroreversion rates.Changes in sporozoite-specific antibody levels and seroprevalence directly reflected differences in parasite prevalence between the rainy and dry seasons and hence the extent of malaria transmission. Seroconversion rate estimates from modelled seroprevalence data did not however support the above observation.The data confirms the potential utility of sporozoite-specific antigens as useful markers for monitoring short term

A model-based clustering method to detect infectious disease transmission outbreaks from sequence variation.

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Rosemary M McCloskey

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Clustering infections by genetic similarity is a popular technique for identifying potential outbreaks of infectious disease, in part because sequences are now routinely collected for clinical management of many infections. A diverse number of nonparametric clustering methods have been developed for this purpose. These methods are generally intuitive, rapid to compute, and readily scale with large data sets. However, we have found that nonparametric clustering methods can be biased towards identifying clusters of diagnosis-where individuals are sampled sooner post-infection-rather than the clusters of rapid transmission that are meant to be potential foci for public health efforts. We develop a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering based on fitting a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP, which represents the evolution of transmission rates along the tree relating different infections. We evaluated this model-based method alongside five nonparametric clustering methods using both simulated and actual HIV sequence data sets. For simulated clusters of rapid transmission, the MMPP clustering method obtained higher mean sensitivity (85% and specificity (91% than the nonparametric methods. When we applied these clustering methods to published sequences from a study of HIV-1 genetic clusters in Seattle, USA, we found that the MMPP method categorized about half (46% as many individuals to clusters compared to the other methods. Furthermore, the mean internal branch lengths that approximate transmission rates were significantly shorter in clusters extracted using MMPP, but not by other methods. We determined that the computing time for the MMPP method scaled linearly with the size of trees, requiring about 30 seconds for a tree of 1,000 tips and about 20 minutes for 50,000 tips on a single computer. This new approach to genetic clustering has significant implications for the application of pathogen sequence analysis to public health, where

Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

OpenAIRE

Miao, Anqi; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Tongqian; Pradeep, B. G. Sampath Aruna

2017-01-01

A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tewa, Jean Jules; Dimi, Jean Luc; Bowong, Samuel

2009-01-01

In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.

Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tewa, Jean Jules [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Yaounde I, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde (Cameroon)], E-mail: tewa@univ-metz.fr; Dimi, Jean Luc [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University Marien Ngouabi, P.O. Box 69, Brazzaville (Congo, The Democratic Republic of the)], E-mail: jldimi@yahoo.fr; Bowong, Samuel [Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, P.O. Box 24157, Douala (Cameroon)], E-mail: samuelbowong@yahoo.fr

2009-01-30

In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.

Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molla, W.; Frankena, Klaas; Jong, de Mart

2017-01-01

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed

Landscape epidemiology: An emerging perspective in the mapping and modelling of disease and disease risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nnadi Nnaemeka Emmanuel

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Landscape epidemiology describes how the temporal dynamics of host, vector, and pathogen populations interact spatially within a permissive environment to enable transmission. It also aims at understanding the vegetation and geologic conditions that are necessary for the maintenance and transmission of a particular pathogen. The current review describes the evolution of landscape epidemiology. As a science, it also highlights the various methods of mapping and modeling diseases and disease risk factors. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk.

Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anqi Miao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

Non-malignant disease mortality in meat workers: a model for studying the role of zoonotic transmissible agents in non-malignant chronic diseases in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, E S; Zhou, Y; Sall, M; Faramawi, M El; Shah, N; Christopher, A; Lewis, N

2007-12-01

Current research efforts have mainly concentrated on evaluating the role of substances present in animal food in the aetiology of chronic diseases in humans, with relatively little attention given to evaluating the role of transmissible agents that are also present. Meat workers are exposed to a variety of transmissible agents present in food animals and their products. This study investigates mortality from non-malignant diseases in workers with these exposures. A cohort mortality study was conducted between 1949 and 1989, of 8520 meat workers in a union in Baltimore, Maryland, who worked in manufacturing plants where animals were killed or processed, and who had high exposures to transmissible agents. Mortality in meat workers was compared with that in a control group of 6081 workers in the same union, and also with the US general population. Risk was estimated by proportional mortality and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative SMR. A clear excess of mortality from septicaemia, subarachnoid haemorrhage, chronic nephritis, acute and subacute endocarditis, functional diseases of the heart, and decreased risk of mortality from pre-cerebral, cerebral artery stenosis were observed in meat workers when compared to the control group or to the US general population. The authors hypothesise that zoonotic transmissible agents present in food animals and their products may be responsible for the occurrence of some cases of circulatory, neurological and other diseases in meat workers, and possibly in the general population exposed to these agents.

Quantifying human-environment interactions using videography in the context of infectious disease transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Julian, Timothy R; Bustos, Carla; Kwong, Laura H; Badilla, Alejandro D; Lee, Julia; Bischel, Heather N; Canales, Robert A

2018-05-08

Quantitative data on human-environment interactions are needed to fully understand infectious disease transmission processes and conduct accurate risk assessments. Interaction events occur during an individual's movement through, and contact with, the environment, and can be quantified using diverse methodologies. Methods that utilize videography, coupled with specialized software, can provide a permanent record of events, collect detailed interactions in high resolution, be reviewed for accuracy, capture events difficult to observe in real-time, and gather multiple concurrent phenomena. In the accompanying video, the use of specialized software to capture humanenvironment interactions for human exposure and disease transmission is highlighted. Use of videography, combined with specialized software, allows for the collection of accurate quantitative representations of human-environment interactions in high resolution. Two specialized programs include the Virtual Timing Device for the Personal Computer, which collects sequential microlevel activity time series of contact events and interactions, and LiveTrak, which is optimized to facilitate annotation of events in real-time. Opportunities to annotate behaviors at high resolution using these tools are promising, permitting detailed records that can be summarized to gain information on infectious disease transmission and incorporated into more complex models of human exposure and risk.

Chagas disease transmission by consumption of game meat: systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Sangenis, Luiz Henrique Conde; Nielebock, Marco Antonio Prates; Santos, Ceumara da Silva; Silva, Mateus Curty Carriello da; Bento, Glauber Motta Ribeiro

2016-01-01

To evaluate the influence of game meat consumption in Chagas disease (CD) transmission, the conditions under which it occurs and the frequency of reports in the literature. Through systematic review, databases PubMed, LILACS, MEDLINE, and SciELO were consulted, and articles written in Portuguese, English, and Spanish were included, with no limitation over publication date. We used the following descriptors: oral, transmission, meat, wild animals, hunt, carnivory, and Chagas disease. Articles that mentioned consumption of animal meat as a form of human transmission of CD were included. We used epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory evidence criteria to confirm cases. Among the 298 articles identified, only six met the eligibility criteria. Only five episodes of oral transmission through wild animal meat or blood consumption were identified. However, in two of them, the possibility of vectorial transmission could not be ruled out. Most reports met the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory evidence criteria established to support the transmission. Though CD transmission is uncommon, hunting and consumption of wild mammals that serve as Trypanosoma cruzi reservoirs should be discouraged in endemic countries in light of the risks inherent to these practices.

Distinct transmissibility features of TSE sources derived from ruminant prion diseases by the oral route in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Noël Arsac

Full Text Available Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases associated with a misfolded form of host-encoded prion protein (PrP. Some of them, such as classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle (BSE, transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME, kuru and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, are acquired by the oral route exposure to infected tissues. We investigated the possible transmission by the oral route of a panel of strains derived from ruminant prion diseases in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein (A136R154Q171 under the control of the neuron-specific enolase promoter. Sources derived from Nor98, CH1641 or 87V scrapie sources, as well as sources derived from L-type BSE or cattle-passaged TME, failed to transmit by the oral route, whereas those derived from classical BSE and classical scrapie were successfully transmitted. Apart from a possible effect of passage history of the TSE agent in the inocula, this implied the occurrence of subtle molecular changes in the protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres following oral transmission that can raises concerns about our ability to correctly identify sheep that might be orally infected by the BSE agent in the field. Our results provide proof of principle that transgenic mouse models can be used to examine the transmissibility of TSE agents by the oral route, providing novel insights regarding the pathogenesis of prion diseases.

The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierre Nouvellet

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8 × 10(-4 (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0] × 10(-4. This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900-4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known

Co-feeding transmission facilitates strain coexistence in Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent

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S.L. States

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission may occur in the absence of systemic infection between two vectors feeding in close proximity, enabling pathogens to minimize competition and escape the host immune response. In a laboratory study, we demonstrated that co-feeding transmission can occur for a rapidly-cleared strain of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent, between two stages of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis while feeding on their dominant host, Peromyscus leucopus. In contrast, infections rapidly became systemic for the persistently infecting strain. In a field study, we assessed opportunities for co-feeding transmission by measuring co-occurrence of two tick stages on ears of small mammals over two years at multiple sites. Finally, in a modeling study, we assessed the importance of co-feeding on R0, the basic reproductive number. The model indicated that co-feeding increases the fitness of rapidly-cleared strains in regions with synchronous immature tick feeding. Our results are consistent with increased diversity of B. burgdorferi in areas of higher synchrony in immature feeding – such as the midwestern United States. A higher relative proportion of rapidly-cleared strains, which are less human pathogenic, would also explain lower Lyme disease incidence in this region. Finally, if co-feeding transmission also occurs on refractory hosts, it may facilitate the emergence and persistence of new pathogens with a more limited host range.

Transmission scenarios of major vector-borne diseases in Colombia, 1990-2016

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Julio César Padilla

2017-03-01

Conclusions: Persistent epidemic and endemic transmission of vector-borne diseases in urban and rural settings in Colombia was observed mainly in the case of malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis and Chagas disease. Such transmission was focused and had variable intensity patterns. On the other hand, the conditions that have favored the emergence of new arboviruses persist.

Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-5

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

2012-01-01

The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

A Systematic Review Regarding Tonometry and the Transmission of Infectious Diseases

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Atkins, Nicole; Hodge, William; Li, Bruce

2018-01-01

Tonometry has been identified as a common method for measuring the intraocular pressure in patients. The direct contact between the tonometer and the eye may contribute to the risk of cross infection, especially of viral particles, from one patient to another. A systematic review was undertaken to address the likelihood of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and prion diseases transmission through the use of tonometers. Additionally, a comparison of the current tonometer disinfection methods is provided to assist with identifying which technique effectively reduces the risk of disease transmission. An electronic literature search was conducted using the following databases: Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Biosis Previews, Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Google Scholar. Dissertation indexes were also searched, and these included: Dissertations and Abstracts, and Dissertations and Abstracts - UK/Ireland. Additionally, the Clinicaltrials.gov trial registry was searched to identify any other relevant literature. Two independent reviewers critically appraised the articles retrieved through the literature search. In total, 11 unique studies were deemed relevant for this systematic review. The available evidence demonstrated that the use of tonometers contributes to the transmission of these infectious diseases in vitro. The results also demonstrated variability in determining the most effective tonometer sterilization technique against these infectious diseases in vitro. There was limited evidence available regarding the transmission of HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and prion diseases through the use of tonometers. Additionally, due to the variability regarding the most effective sterilization techniques, it is difficult to identify which sterilization technique is most effective or adequately effective against these infectious diseases. Future research studies regarding infectious disease transmission through tonometry and

A Systematic Review Regarding Tonometry and the Transmission of Infectious Diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, Nicole; Hodge, William; Li, Bruce

2018-03-01

Tonometry has been identified as a common method for measuring the intraocular pressure in patients. The direct contact between the tonometer and the eye may contribute to the risk of cross infection, especially of viral particles, from one patient to another. A systematic review was undertaken to address the likelihood of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and prion diseases transmission through the use of tonometers. Additionally, a comparison of the current tonometer disinfection methods is provided to assist with identifying which technique effectively reduces the risk of disease transmission. An electronic literature search was conducted using the following databases: Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Biosis Previews, Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Google Scholar. Dissertation indexes were also searched, and these included: Dissertations and Abstracts, and Dissertations and Abstracts - UK/Ireland. Additionally, the Clinicaltrials.gov trial registry was searched to identify any other relevant literature. Two independent reviewers critically appraised the articles retrieved through the literature search. In total, 11 unique studies were deemed relevant for this systematic review. The available evidence demonstrated that the use of tonometers contributes to the transmission of these infectious diseases in vitro . The results also demonstrated variability in determining the most effective tonometer sterilization technique against these infectious diseases in vitro . There was limited evidence available regarding the transmission of HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and prion diseases through the use of tonometers. Additionally, due to the variability regarding the most effective sterilization techniques, it is difficult to identify which sterilization technique is most effective or adequately effective against these infectious diseases. Future research studies regarding infectious disease transmission through tonometry and

Is maternal transmission of coronary heart disease risk stronger than paternal transmission?

Science.gov (United States)

Kinra, S; Davey Smith, G; Okasha, M; McCarron, P; McEwen, J

2003-08-01

To test whether intergenerational transmission of coronary heart disease (CHD) to offspring is greater from the mother than from the father, the association between parental history of CHD and coronary mortality in male offspring was examined. Prospective cohort study with 43 years of follow up. University of Glasgow. Male students (n = 8402) aged 16-30 years when examined in 1948 to 1968. Fatal CHD. Of the 8402 men studied, 615 (7.3%) reported a history of CHD in at least one of the parents: 479 (5.8%) for fathers only, 124 (1.6%) for mothers only, and a further 12 (0.2%) for both their parents. During follow up, 373 (4.4%) men died of CHD. Parental history of disease was associated with fatal CHD and controlling for personal risk factors such as cigarette smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and father's social class did not attenuate this relation. The fully adjusted hazard ratios were 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08 to 2.18), 1.19 (95% CI 0.61 to 2.32), and 8.65 (95% CI 2.65 to 28.31) for father only, mother only, and both parents with CHD, respectively, compared with men whose parents did not have CHD. There was some evidence for interaction between parental histories (p = 0.049), with particularly high risk if both parents reported a history of CHD. This study found no differential transmission of CHD. Paternal history of CHD was at least as important as maternal history. Data from other comparable cohorts provide no consistent evidence of differential transmission. Intergenerational transmission of CHD does not appear to have differential effects between mothers and fathers.

Modeling freshwater snail habitat suitability and areas of potential snail-borne disease transmission in Uganda

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Jørgensen, Aslak; Kabatereine, N B

2006-01-01

-borne disease transmission areas. Furthermore, knowledge of abiotic factors affecting intra-molluscan parasitic development can be used to make "masks" based on remotely sensed climatic data, and these can in turn be used to refine these predictions. We used data from a recent freshwater snail survey from......Geographic information system (GIS-based modeling of an intermediate host snail species environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its spatial distribution. When other data are lacking, this can be used as a rough spatial prediction of potential snail...... Uganda, environmental data and the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to map the potential distribution of snail species known to act as intermediate hosts of several human and animal parasites. The results suggest that large areas of Uganda are suitable habitats for many of these snail...

An epidemic model for the interactions between thermal regime of rivers and transmission of Proliferative Kidney Disease in salmonid fish

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Carraro, Luca; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Strepparava, Nicole; Hartikainen, Hanna; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans (Fredericella sultana) and salmonids as primary and secondary hosts, respectively. Incidence and mortality, which can reach up to 90-100%, are known to be strongly related to water temperature. PKD has been present in brown trout population for a long time but has recently increased rapidly in incidence and severity causing a decline in fish catches in many countries. In addition, environmental changes are feared to cause PKD outbreaks at higher latitude and altitude regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development. This calls for a better comprehension of the interactions between disease dynamics and the thermal regime of rivers, in order to possibly devise strategies for disease management. In this perspective, a spatially explicit model of PKD epidemiology in riverine host metacommunities is proposed. The model aims at summarizing the knowledge on the modes of transmission of the disease and the life-cycle of the parasite, making the connection between temperature and epidemiological parameters explicit. The model accounts for both local population and disease dynamics of bryozoans and fish and hydrodynamic dispersion of the parasite spores and hosts along the river network. The model is time-hybrid, coupling inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics, the former being described in a continuous time domain, the latter seen as time steps of a discrete time domain. In order to test the model, a case study is conducted in river Wigger (Cantons of Aargau and Lucerne, Switzerland), where data about water temperature, brown trout and bryozoan populations and PKD prevalence are being collected.

Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

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Keeling Matthew J

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Quantifying human-environment interactions using videography in the context of infectious disease transmission

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Timothy R. Julian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Quantitative data on human-environment interactions are needed to fully understand infectious disease transmission processes and conduct accurate risk assessments. Interaction events occur during an individual’s movement through, and contact with, the environment, and can be quantified using diverse methodologies. Methods that utilize videography, coupled with specialized software, can provide a permanent record of events, collect detailed interactions in high resolution, be reviewed for accuracy, capture events difficult to observe in real-time, and gather multiple concurrent phenomena. In the accompanying video, the use of specialized software to capture humanenvironment interactions for human exposure and disease transmission is highlighted. Use of videography, combined with specialized software, allows for the collection of accurate quantitative representations of human-environment interactions in high resolution. Two specialized programs include the Virtual Timing Device for the Personal Computer, which collects sequential microlevel activity time series of contact events and interactions, and LiveTrak, which is optimized to facilitate annotation of events in real-time. Opportunities to annotate behaviors at high resolution using these tools are promising, permitting detailed records that can be summarized to gain information on infectious disease transmission and incorporated into more complex models of human exposure and risk.

A history of chagas disease transmission, control, and re-emergence in peri-rural La Joya, Peru.

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Delgado, Stephen; Castillo Neyra, Ricardo; Quispe Machaca, Víctor R; Ancca Juárez, Jenny; Chou Chu, Lily; Verastegui, Manuela Renee; Moscoso Apaza, Giovanna M; Bocángel, César D; Tustin, Aaron W; Sterling, Charles R; Comrie, Andrew C; Náquira, César; Cornejo del Carpio, Juan G; Gilman, Robert H; Bern, Caryn; Levy, Michael Z

2011-02-22

The history of Chagas disease control in Peru and many other nations is marked by scattered and poorly documented vector control campaigns. The complexities of human migration and sporadic control campaigns complicate evaluation of the burden of Chagas disease and dynamics of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional serological and entomological study to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of T. cruzi transmission in a peri-rural region of La Joya, Peru. We use a multivariate catalytic model and Bayesian methods to estimate incidence of infection over time and thereby elucidate the complex history of transmission in the area. Of 1,333 study participants, 101 (7.6%; 95% CI: 6.2-9.0%) were confirmed T. cruzi seropositive. Spatial clustering of parasitic infection was found in vector insects, but not in human cases. Expanded catalytic models suggest that transmission was interrupted in the study area in 1996 (95% credible interval: 1991-2000), with a resultant decline in the average annual incidence of infection from 0.9% (95% credible interval: 0.6-1.3%) to 0.1% (95% credible interval: 0.005-0.3%). Through a search of archival newspaper reports, we uncovered documentation of a 1995 vector control campaign, and thereby independently validated the model estimates. High levels of T. cruzi transmission had been ongoing in peri-rural La Joya prior to interruption of parasite transmission through a little-documented vector control campaign in 1995. Despite the efficacy of the 1995 control campaign, T. cruzi was rapidly reemerging in vector populations in La Joya, emphasizing the need for continuing surveillance and control at the rural-urban interface.

Prioritization of Companion Animal Transmissible Diseases for Policy Intervention in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cito, F.; Rijks, J.; Rantsios, A.T.

2016-01-01

A number of papers have been published on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in farm animals and wildlife, based either on semiquantitative or truly quantitative methods, but there is no published literature on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in companion animals. In this s...... reptiles. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to generate accurate priority lists according to narrower and more specific objectives....

Malaria transmission in Tripura: Disease distribution & determinants.

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Dev, Vas; Adak, Tridibes; Singh, Om P; Nanda, Nutan; Baidya, Bimal K

2015-12-01

Malaria is a major public health problem in Tripura and focal disease outbreaks are of frequent occurrence. The state is co-endemic for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and transmission is perennial and persistent. The present study was aimed to review data on disease distribution to prioritize high-risk districts, and to study seasonal prevalence of disease vectors and their bionomical characteristics to help formulate vector species-specific interventions for malaria control. Data on malaria morbidity in the State were reviewed retrospectively (2008-2012) for understanding disease distribution and transmission dynamics. Cross-sectional mass blood surveys were conducted in malaria endemic villages of South Tripura district to ascertain the prevalence of malaria and proportions of parasite species. Mosquito collections were made in human dwellings of malaria endemic villages aiming at vector incrimination and to study relative abundance, resting and feeding preferences, and their present susceptibility status to DDT. The study showed that malaria was widely prevalent and P. falciparum was the predominant infection (>90%), the remaining were P. vivax cases. The disease distribution, however, was uneven with large concentration of cases in districts of South Tripura and Dhalai coinciding with vast forest cover and tribal populations. Both Anopheles minimus s.s. and An. baimaii were recorded to be prevalent and observed to be highly anthropophagic and susceptible to DDT. Of these, An. minimus was incriminated (sporozoite infection rate 4.92%), and its bionomical characteristics revealed this species to be largely indoor resting and endophagic. For effective control of malaria in the state, it is recommended that diseases surveillance should be robust, and vector control interventions including DDT spray coverage, mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets/ long-lasting insecticidal nets should be intensified prioritizing population groups most at risk to

Development of a Discrete Spatial-Temporal SEIR Simulator for Modeling Infectious Diseases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McKenna, S.A.

2000-11-01

Multiple techniques have been developed to model the temporal evolution of infectious diseases. Some of these techniques have also been adapted to model the spatial evolution of the disease. This report examines the application of one such technique, the SEIR model, to the spatial and temporal evolution of disease. Applications of the SEIR model are reviewed briefly and an adaptation to the traditional SEIR model is presented. This adaptation allows for modeling the spatial evolution of the disease stages at the individual level. The transmission of the disease between individuals is modeled explicitly through the use of exposure likelihood functions rather than the global transmission rate applied to populations in the traditional implementation of the SEIR model. These adaptations allow for the consideration of spatially variable (heterogeneous) susceptibility and immunity within the population. The adaptations also allow for modeling both contagious and non-contagious diseases. The results of a number of numerical experiments to explore the effect of model parameters on the spread of an example disease are presented.

A rigorous approach to investigating common assumptions about disease transmission: Process algebra as an emerging modelling methodology for epidemiology.

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McCaig, Chris; Begon, Mike; Norman, Rachel; Shankland, Carron

2011-03-01

Changing scale, for example, the ability to move seamlessly from an individual-based model to a population-based model, is an important problem in many fields. In this paper, we introduce process algebra as a novel solution to this problem in the context of models of infectious disease spread. Process algebra allows us to describe a system in terms of the stochastic behaviour of individuals, and is a technique from computer science. We review the use of process algebra in biological systems, and the variety of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques available. The analysis illustrated here solves the changing scale problem: from the individual behaviour we can rigorously derive equations to describe the mean behaviour of the system at the level of the population. The biological problem investigated is the transmission of infection, and how this relates to individual interactions.

Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

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Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

2016-01-01

Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology. PMID:27070316

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

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Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

Biodiversity and disease: a synthesis of ecological perspectives on Lyme disease transmission.

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Wood, Chelsea L.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2013-01-01

Recent reviews have argued that disease control is among the ecosystem services yielded by biodiversity. Lyme disease (LD) is commonly cited as the best example of the ‘diluting’ effect of biodiversity on disease transmission, but many studies document the opposite relationship, showing that human LD risk can increase with forestation. Here, we unify these divergent perspectives and find strong evidence for a positive link between biodiversity and LD at broad spatial scales (urban to suburban to rural) and equivocal evidence for a negative link between biodiversity and LD at varying levels of biodiversity within forests. This finding suggests that, across zoonotic disease agents, the biodiversity–disease relationship is scale dependent and complex.

A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Roy, Sandip; McElwain, Terry F; Wan, Yan

2011-10-01

Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis) and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations), and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk) and points in the spread network (e.g., transhumance vs. sedentary herds). In addition, a preliminary

A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandip Roy

2011-10-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations, and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk and points in

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

2018-04-24

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Modeling of spectral atmosphere transmission for infrared radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiecek, B.; Olbrycht, R.

2009-01-01

IR radiation transmission of the atmosphere is an important factor during the thermovision remote sensing and measurement. Transmission coefficient of the atmosphere depends on its content and it is attenuated mainly due to the vapor concentration. Every calibrated thermal camera should be equipped with the digital system which implements the transmission model of the atmosphere. The model presented in this work is based on Beer and Bouguer laws. The proposed simplified model of transmission atmosphere is suitable for implementation in the thermal cameras. A simple digital controller of the camera can calculate the transmission coefficient and correct the temperature measurement. The model takes in account both scattering and absorption due the quantum effects when the photons are interacting with the molecules. (author)

Sheep movement networks and the transmission of infectious diseases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoriya V Volkova

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Various approaches have been used to investigate how properties of farm contact networks impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. The potential for transmission of an infection through a contact network can be evaluated in terms of the basic reproduction number, R(0. The magnitude of R(0 is related to the mean contact rate of a host, in this case a farm, and is further influenced by heterogeneities in contact rates of individual hosts. The latter can be evaluated as the second order moments of the contact matrix (variances in contact rates, and co-variance between contacts to and from individual hosts. Here we calculate these quantities for the farms in a country-wide livestock network: >15,000 Scottish sheep farms in each of 4 years from July 2003 to June 2007. The analysis is relevant to endemic and chronic infections with prolonged periods of infectivity of affected animals, and uses different weightings of contacts to address disease scenarios of low, intermediate and high animal-level prevalence.Analysis of networks of Scottish farms via sheep movements from July 2003 to June 2007 suggests that heterogeneities in movement patterns (variances and covariances of rates of movement on and off the farms make a substantial contribution to the potential for the transmission of infectious diseases, quantified as R(0, within the farm population. A small percentage of farms (80% and these farms could be efficiently targeted by interventions aimed at reducing spread of diseases via animal movement.

Bifurcation analysis of dengue transmission model in Baguio City, Philippines

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Libatique, Criselda P.; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris J.; Addawe, Joel M.

2017-11-01

In this study, we formulate a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever in Baguio City, Philippines. We analyzed the existence of the equilibria of the dengue model. We computed and obtained conditions for the existence of the equilibrium states. Stability analysis for the system is carried out for disease free equilibrium. We showed that the system becomes stable under certain conditions of the parameters. A particular parameter is taken and with the use of the Theory of Centre Manifold, the proposed model demonstrates a bifurcation phenomenon. We performed numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J

2016-07-01

Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than

Transmission Properties of Human PrP 102L Prions Challenge the Relevance of Mouse Models of GSS.

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Asante, Emmanuel A; Grimshaw, Andrew; Smidak, Michelle; Jakubcova, Tatiana; Tomlinson, Andrew; Jeelani, Asif; Hamdan, Shyma; Powell, Caroline; Joiner, Susan; Linehan, Jacqueline M; Brandner, Sebastian; Wadsworth, Jonathan D F; Collinge, John

2015-07-01

Inherited prion disease (IPD) is caused by autosomal-dominant pathogenic mutations in the human prion protein (PrP) gene (PRNP). A proline to leucine substitution at PrP residue 102 (P102L) is classically associated with Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker (GSS) disease but shows marked clinical and neuropathological variability within kindreds that may be caused by variable propagation of distinct prion strains generated from either PrP 102L or wild type PrP. To-date the transmission properties of prions propagated in P102L patients remain ill-defined. Multiple mouse models of GSS have focused on mutating the corresponding residue of murine PrP (P101L), however murine PrP 101L, a novel PrP primary structure, may not have the repertoire of pathogenic prion conformations necessary to accurately model the human disease. Here we describe the transmission properties of prions generated in human PrP 102L expressing transgenic mice that were generated after primary challenge with ex vivo human GSS P102L or classical CJD prions. We show that distinct strains of prions were generated in these mice dependent upon source of the inoculum (either GSS P102L or CJD brain) and have designated these GSS-102L and CJD-102L prions, respectively. GSS-102L prions have transmission properties distinct from all prion strains seen in sporadic and acquired human prion disease. Significantly, GSS-102L prions appear incapable of transmitting disease to conventional mice expressing wild type mouse PrP, which contrasts strikingly with the reported transmission properties of prions generated in GSS P102L-challenged mice expressing mouse PrP 101L. We conclude that future transgenic modeling of IPDs should focus exclusively on expression of mutant human PrP, as other approaches may generate novel experimental prion strains that are unrelated to human disease.

Modeling and Validation of Environmental Suitability for Schistosomiasis Transmission Using Remote Sensing.

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Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; Poda, Jean-Noël; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg; Raso, Giovanna

2015-11-01

Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health. We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children. Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire. A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

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Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

The impact of economic crises on communicable disease transmission and control: a systematic review of the evidence.

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Marc Suhrcke

Full Text Available There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the "SIR" (susceptible-infected-recovered model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control.

CystiSim - an agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission and control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah

2016-01-01

Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission...... interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes...... and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts...

On the 2-Row Rule for Infectious Disease Transmission on Aircraft.

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Hertzberg, Vicki Stover; Weiss, Howard

With over two billion airline passengers annually, in-flight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Many instances of in-flight transmission have been documented, but the relative influence of the many factors (see below) affecting in-flight transmission has not been quantified. Long-standing guidance by public health agencies is that the primary transmission risk associated with air travel for most respiratory infectious diseases is associated with sitting within two rows of an infectious passenger. The effect of proximity may be one of these factors. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of infection within and beyond the 2-row rule given by public health guidance. We searched the literature for reports of in-flight transmission of infection which included seat maps indicating where the infectious and infected passengers were seated. There is a ∼ 6% risk to passengers seated within the 2-rows of infected individual(s) and there is ∼ 2% risk to passengers seated beyond 2-rows from the infectious individual. Contact tracing limited to passengers within 2-rows of the infectious individual(s) could fail to detect other cases of infections. This has important consequences for assessing the spread of infectious diseases. Infection at a distance from the index case indicates other factors, such as airflow, movement of passenger/crew members, fomites and contacts between passengers in the departure gate before boarding, or after deplaning, are involved. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modeling for control zika transmission

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Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Naiborhu, Janson; Nuraini, Nuning; Ahmadin

2017-11-01

After 70 years since the zika was identified in Uganda, zika is now documented in 62 countries. In general, people infected with this disease do not experience severe conditions, but for pregnant women can cause serious problems because the zika can spread to the fetus. One result, zika can cause abnormalities in the fetal brain called microcephaly. Control and prevention are very important to reduce the spread of this disease. Here, we discussed the problem of optimal control in the model of zika transmission associated with the use of insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Using the approach of optimal control theory, we completed the objective function so that the infected population and its control cost are minimum. Numerically using the Forward-Backward Sweep Method, we obtained the control design of ITN and IRS as a function of time. The results show that the use of both simultaneously is more effective in reducing the population of infection than the use of ITN alone or the IRS alone.

Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

2016-01-01

Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

Turbulent dispersivity under conditions relevant to airborne disease transmission between laboratory animals

Science.gov (United States)

Halloran, Siobhan; Ristenpart, William

2013-11-01

Virologists and other researchers who test pathogens for airborne disease transmissibility often place a test animal downstream from an inoculated animal and later determine whether the test animal became infected. Despite the crucial role of the airflow in pathogen transmission between the animals, to date the infectious disease community has paid little attention to the effect of airspeed or turbulent intensity on the probability of transmission. Here we present measurements of the turbulent dispersivity under conditions relevant to experimental tests of airborne disease transmissibility between laboratory animals. We used time lapse photography to visualize the downstream transport and turbulent dispersion of smoke particulates released from a point source downstream of an axial fan, thus mimicking the release and transport of expiratory aerosols exhaled by an inoculated animal. We show that for fan-generated turbulence the plume width is invariant with the mean airspeed and, close to the point source, increases linearly with downstream position. Importantly, the turbulent dispersivity is insensitive to the presence of meshes placed downstream from the point source, indicating that the fan length scale dictates the turbulent intensity and corresponding dispersivity.

Self-propagative replication of Aβ oligomers suggests potential transmissibility in Alzheimer disease.

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Amit Kumar

Full Text Available The aggregation of amyloid-β (Aβ peptide and its deposition in parts of the brain form the central processes in the etiology of Alzheimer disease (AD. The low-molecular weight oligomers of Aβ aggregates (2 to 30 mers are known to be the primary neurotoxic agents whose mechanisms of cellular toxicity and synaptic dysfunction have received substantial attention in the recent years. However, how these toxic agents proliferate and induce widespread amyloid deposition throughout the brain, and what mechanism is involved in the amplification and propagation of toxic oligomer species, are far from clear. Emerging evidence based on transgenic mice models indicates a transmissible nature of Aβ aggregates and implicates a prion-like mechanism of oligomer propagation, which manifests as the dissemination and proliferation of Aβ toxicity. Despite accumulating evidence in support of a transmissible nature of Aβ aggregates, a clear, molecular-level understanding of this intriguing mechanism is lacking. Recently, we reported the characterization of unique replicating oligomers of Aβ42 (12-24 mers in vitro called Large Fatty Acid-derived Oligomers (LFAOs (Kumar et al., 2012, J. Biol. Chem. In the current report, we establish that LFAOs possess physiological activity by activating NF-κB in human neuroblastoma cells, and determine the experimental parameters that control the efficiency of LFAO replication by self-propagation. These findings constitute the first detailed report on monomer - oligomer lateral propagation reactions that may constitute potential mechanism governing transmissibility among Aβ oligomers. These data support the previous reports on transmissible mechanisms observed in transgenic animal models.

High-frequency electroacupuncture evidently reinforces hippocampal synaptic transmission in Alzheimer's disease rats

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei; Kong, Li-hong; Wang, Hui; Shen, Feng; Wang, Ya-wen; Zhou, Hua; Sun, Guo-jie

2016-01-01

The frequency range of electroacupuncture in treatment of Alzheimer's disease in rats is commonly 2–5 Hz (low frequency) and 50–100 Hz (high frequency). We established a rat model of Alzheimer's disease by injecting β-amyloid 1–42 (Aβ1–42) into the bilateral hippocampal dentate gyrus to verify which frequency may be better suited in treatment. Electroacupuncture at 2 Hz or 50 Hz was used to stimulate Baihui (DU20) and Shenshu (BL23) acupoints. The water maze test and electrophysiological studies demonstrated that spatial memory ability was apparently improved, and the ranges of long-term potentiation and long-term depression were increased in Alzheimer's disease rats after electroacupuncture treatment. Moreover, the effects of electroacupuncture at 50 Hz were better than that at 2 Hz. These findings suggest that high-frequency electroacupuncture may enhance hippocampal synaptic transmission and potentially improve memory disorders in Alzheimer's disease rats. PMID:27335565

Transmission of infectious diseases from internationally adopted children to their adoptive families.

Science.gov (United States)

Sciauvaud, J; Rigal, E; Pascal, J; Nourrisson, C; Poirier, P; Poirier, V; Vidal, M; Mrozek, N; Laurichesse, H; Beytout, J; Labbe, A; Lesens, O

2014-08-01

Internationally adopted children may suffer from different pathologies, including infectious diseases contracted in the country of origin. We evaluated the frequency of infectious diseases that may disseminate from adoptees to adoptive families on their arrival in France. All children who attended the clinic for international adoption in Clermont-Ferrand from January 2009 through to December 2011 were eligible for inclusion in the study. Standardized medical records dedicated to international adoption were retrospectively reviewed for demographic data, clinical diagnosis, and biological and radiological results. Data were completed by phone interviews with adoptive families after informed consent. One hundred and forty-two medical records were retrospectively reviewed and 86% of families agreed to be interviewed. One hundred and seventy-one potentially transmissible infections were diagnosed in 142 children, 12% (n = 20) of which were transmitted to adoptive families. Most of these infections were benign and transmission was restricted to the close family. Tinea was diagnosed in 44 adoptees and transmitted in 15 cases. Panton Valentine leukocidin producing methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) was transmitted to an adoptive father who required hospitalization for bursitis. Transmission also occurred for CMV (n = 1), hepatitis A (n = 1), giardiasis (n = 1), scabies (n = 1), Moluscum (n = 2) and pediculosis (n = 2). Two cases of chronic hepatitis B and latent tuberculosis were diagnosed without subsequent transmission. In conclusion, infectious diseases are common in internationally adopted children and should be detected shortly after arrival to avoid transmission. © 2013 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2013 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

Compassionate Love as a Predictor of Reduced HIV Disease Progression and Transmission Risk

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Heidemarie Kremer

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. This study examined if compassionate love (CL predicts HIV disease progression and transmission risk. Scientific study of CL emerged with Underwood’s working model of other-centered CL, defining five criteria: free choice, cognitive understanding, valuing/empowering, openness/receptivity for spirituality, and response of the heart. Method. This 10-year cohort study collected 6-monthly interviews/essays on coping with HIV and trauma of 177 people with HIV in South Florida. Secondary qualitative content analysis on other-centered CL inductively added the component of CL towards self. Deductively, we coded the presence of the five criteria of CL and rated the benefit of CL for the recipient on a 6-point Likert scale. Growth-curve modeling (reduced to 4 years due to cohort effects investigated if CL predicts CD4 slope (HIV disease progression and cumulative viral load detection (transmission risk. Results. Valuing/empowering and cognitive understanding were the essential criteria for CL to confer long-term benefits. CL had a higher benefit for recipients if given out of free choice. High scores of CL towards self were reciprocal with receiving (93% and giving (77% other-centered CL. Conversely, those rated low on CL towards self were least likely to score high on receiving (38% and giving (49% other-centered CL. Growth-curve modeling showed that CL towards self predicted 4-year cumulative undetectable viral load (independent from sociocultural differences, substance use disorder, baseline CD4 and viral load. Those high versus low on CL self were 2.25 times more likely to have undetectable viral load at baseline and 1.49 times more likely to maintain undetectable viral load over time. CL towards self predicted CD4 preservation after controlling for differences in CL giving. Conclusions. CL towards self is potentially the seed of being expressive and receptive of CL. Health care professionals prepared to walk the extra mile for those who

Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazil: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jörg

2014-08-01

To estimate the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and the risk of congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Brazil, through a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched electronic databases, grey literature and reference lists of included publications to identify epidemiological studies on the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and on the congenital transmission rate of T. cruzi infection in Brazil published between January 1980 and June 2013. Pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using fixed- and random-effects models. Sixteen articles were included - 12 studies on the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women (549,359 pregnant women) and nine on congenital transmission rates (1687 children born to infected mothers). Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women ranged from 0.1% to 8.5%, and congenital transmission rates from 0% to 5.2%. The pooled prevalence of Chagas disease among pregnant women across studies was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-2.0); the pooled congenital transmission rate was 1.7% (95% CI: 0.9-3.1). In 2010, 34,629 pregnant women were estimated to be infected with T. cruzi, and 312-1073 children born (mean: 589 cases) with congenital infection. Congenital Chagas disease is a neglected public health problem in Brazil. Systematic congenital Chagas disease control programs through routine prenatal screening for T. cruzi should be widely implemented in Brazil's endemic areas, to identify infected pregnant women and newborns at risk of congenital infection. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamics of tuberculosis transmission with exogenous reinfections and endogenous reactivation

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Khajanchi, Subhas; Das, Dhiraj Kumar; Kar, Tapan Kumar

2018-05-01

We propose and analyze a mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission to study the role of exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease free and an endemic equilibria. We observe that the TB model exhibits transcritical bifurcation when basic reproduction number R0 = 1. Our results demonstrate that the disease transmission rate β and exogenous reinfection rate α plays an important role to change the qualitative dynamics of TB. The disease transmission rate β give rises to the possibility of backward bifurcation for R0 < 1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria one of which is stable and another one is unstable. Our analysis suggests that R0 < 1 may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the disease. We also investigate that our TB transmission model undergoes Hopf-bifurcation with respect to the contact rate β and the exogenous reinfection rate α. We conducted some numerical simulations to support our analytical findings.

Prioritization of Companion Animal Transmissible Diseases for Policy Intervention in Europe.

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Cito, F; Rijks, J; Rantsios, A T; Cunningham, A A; Baneth, G; Guardabassi, L; Kuiken, T; Giovannini, A

2016-07-01

A number of papers have been published on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in farm animals and wildlife, based either on semiquantitative or truly quantitative methods, but there is no published literature on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in companion animals. In this study, available epidemiological data for diseases transmissible from companion animals to man were analysed with the aim of developing a procedure suitable for their prioritization within a European framework. A new method and its associated questionnaire and scoring system were designed based on methods described by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Modifications were applied to allow for the paucity of specific information on companion animal transmissible diseases. The OIE method was also adapted to the subject and to the regional scope of the interprofessional network addressing zoonotic diseases transmitted via companion animals in Europe: the Companion Animals multisectoriaL interprofessionaL Interdisciplinary Strategic Think tank On zoonoses (CALLISTO). Adaptations were made based on information collected from expert groups on viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases using a structured questionnaire, in which all questions were closed-ended. The expert groups were asked to select the most appropriate answer for each question taking into account the relevance and reliability of the data available in the scientific literature. Subsequently, the scoring of the answers obtained for each disease covered by the questionnaire was analysed to obtain two final overall scores, one for human health impact and one for agricultural economic impact. The adapted method was then applied to select the 15 most important pathogens (five for each pathogen group: viral, bacterial and parasitic) on the basis of their overall impact on public health and agriculture. The result of the prioritization exercise was a joint priority list (available at www.callistoproject.eu) of

Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity

OpenAIRE

Lee, Elizabeth C.; Kelly, Michael R.; Ochocki, Brad M.; Akinwumi, Segun M.; Hamre, Karen E. S.; Tien, Joseph H.; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and other features. These differences may yield different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether model inferences are robust t...

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Vino, Thiripura; Singh, Gurmeet R; Davison, Belinda; Campbell, Patricia T; Lydeamore, Michael J; Robinson, Andrew; McVernon, Jodie; Tong, Steven Y C; Geard, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Households are an important location for the transmission of communicable diseases. Social contact between household members is typically more frequent, of greater intensity, and is more likely to involve people of different age groups than contact occurring in the general community. Understanding household structure in different populations is therefore fundamental to explaining patterns of disease transmission in these populations. Indigenous populations in Australia tend to live in larger households than non-Indigenous populations, but limited data are available on the structure of these households, and how they differ between remote and urban communities. We have developed a novel approach to the collection of household structure data, suitable for use in a variety of contexts, which provides a detailed view of age, gender, and room occupancy patterns in remote and urban Australian Indigenous households. Here we report analysis of data collected using this tool, which quantifies the extent of crowding in Indigenous households, particularly in remote areas. We use these data to generate matrices of age-specific contact rates, as used by mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. To demonstrate the impact of household structure, we use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza-like illness in different populations. Our simulations suggest that outbreaks in remote populations are likely to spread more rapidly and to a greater extent than outbreaks in non-Indigenous populations.

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thiripura Vino

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Households are an important location for the transmission of communicable diseases. Social contact between household members is typically more frequent, of greater intensity, and is more likely to involve people of different age groups than contact occurring in the general community. Understanding household structure in different populations is therefore fundamental to explaining patterns of disease transmission in these populations. Indigenous populations in Australia tend to live in larger households than non-Indigenous populations, but limited data are available on the structure of these households, and how they differ between remote and urban communities. We have developed a novel approach to the collection of household structure data, suitable for use in a variety of contexts, which provides a detailed view of age, gender, and room occupancy patterns in remote and urban Australian Indigenous households. Here we report analysis of data collected using this tool, which quantifies the extent of crowding in Indigenous households, particularly in remote areas. We use these data to generate matrices of age-specific contact rates, as used by mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. To demonstrate the impact of household structure, we use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza-like illness in different populations. Our simulations suggest that outbreaks in remote populations are likely to spread more rapidly and to a greater extent than outbreaks in non-Indigenous populations.

New Scenarios of Chagas Disease Transmission in Northern Colombia

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Catalina Tovar Acero

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease (CD is a systemic parasitic infection caused by the flagellated form of Trypanosoma cruzi. Córdoba department, located in the Colombian Caribbean Coast, was not considered as a region at risk of T. cruzi transmission. In this article, we describe the first acute CD case in Salitral village in Sahagún, Córdoba, confirmed by microscopy and serological tests. Our results draw attention to a new scenario of transmission of acute CD in nonendemic areas of Colombia and highlight the need to include CD in the differential diagnosis of febrile syndromes in this region.

[Basic research on BSE transmission to people].

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Bodemer, W; Kaup, F J

2002-08-01

Prion diseases of animal and man belong to neurological diseases with amyloidal deposition of the respective proteins. As to prion disease, the cellular prionprotein is in its abnormal isoform(s) an essential component of prionprotein aggregates found in affected tissue. In contrast to all neurodegenerative diseases like Morbus Alzheimer or Huntington's disease, prion diseases are transmissible. Therefore, prion diseases were designated Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSE). The diseases are well known since decades. Scrapie was first described around 1750, a BSE case was reported in the 1850, most likely a misdiagnosis, and in 1920/1930 the human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) had been described. Transmission of CJD i.e. Kuru had been suspected in the early 1950s and erronously classified as slow virus disease. The CJD transmission posed a problem to humans when transplants from CJD cases were used for treatment. Fortunately, these iatrogenic transmissions remained limited. But with the advent of BSE and appearance of variant CJD cases in the UK and some places in Europe scientists suspected that transmission from cattle to man could have happened. From animal models we know of successful transmission via several routes. Species barriers do not completely prevent transmission. Rather transmission barriers might exist controlling individual susceptibility against prions. Modes of transmission, susceptibility for transmission, identification of receptor molecules as well as molecular mechanisms of the transmission process are intensely investigated. Current knowledge let us to assume that inapparent stages of prion infection pretend a (not existing) species barrier. This inapparent infection preceeds overt disease and, thus, most re-search focuses on the development of highly sensitive assay systems for detection of minute amounts of pathological prionprotein in suspected cases. Inapparence also should warn us to underestimate BSE or human vCJD cases; at

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Paul E.; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K.; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J.; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E.; Naumova, Elena N.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Ready, Paul D.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

2015-01-01

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

Characteristics of cyprinid herpesvirus 3 in different phases of infection: implications for disease transmission and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Sunarto, Agus; McColl, Kenneth A; Crane, Mark St J; Schat, Karel A; Slobedman, Barry; Barnes, Andrew C; Walker, Peter J

2014-08-08

Koi herpesvirus disease (KHVD) is an emerging and highly contagious viral disease of koi and common carp (Cyprinus carpio), causing mass mortalities and huge economic losses to the carp aquaculture industry. The disease has spread rapidly to 28 countries worldwide. However, mechanisms of koi herpesvirus (species Cyprinid herpesvirus 3; CyHV-3) transmission remain unclear. A potential experimental model of CyHV-3 infection in carp was used to characterise CyHV-3 in different phases of infection and to demonstrate that CyHV-3 persists in survivor fish and has the capacity to reactivate and transmit the disease to healthy fish. During acute infection, which occurred when fish were maintained at 22°C, viral genes were abundantly expressed and infectious virus was produced in association with tissue damage, clinical disease and mortality. In fish maintained at a lower temperature (11°C), viral DNA was present but viral gene expression was absent or greatly restricted, infectious virus was not recovered and there was no evidence of disease. Productive replication was re-initiated following an increase in water temperature to 22°C, resulting in 45% mortality. Shedding of reactivated virus killed 75% of cohabitating naïve fish, suggesting a potential risk for disease transmission. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aerosol transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus Asia-1 under experimental conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Colenutt, C.; Gonzales, J.L.; Paton, D.J.; Gloster, J.; Nelson, N.; Sanders, C.

2016-01-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) control measures rely on understanding of virus transmission mechanisms. Direct contact between naïve and infected animals or spread by contaminated fomites is prevented by quarantines and rigorous decontamination procedures during outbreaks. Transmission of

Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

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Pauline van den Driessche

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with a simple population model, the concept is developed for a threshold value of ℛ0 determining whether or not the disease dies out. The next generation matrix method of calculating ℛ0 in a compartmental model is described and illustrated. To address control strategies, type and target reproduction numbers are defined, as well as sensitivity and elasticity indices. These theoretical ideas are then applied to models that are formulated for West Nile virus in birds (a vector-borne disease, cholera in humans (a disease with two transmission pathways, anthrax in animals (a disease that can be spread by dead carcasses and spores, and Zika in humans (spread by mosquitoes and sexual contacts. Some parameter values from literature data are used to illustrate the results. Finally, references for other ways to calculate ℛ0 are given. These are useful for more complicated models that, for example, take account of variations in environmental fluctuation or stochasticity. Keywords: Basic reproduction number, Disease control, West Nile virus, Cholera, Anthrax, Zika virus

Transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the incubation period in pigs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Stenfeldt

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV during the incubation (preclinical phase of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation. Contact-exposed pigs were co-mingled with infected donors through successive eight-hour time slots spanning from 8 to 64 hours post inoculation (hpi of the donor pigs. The transition from latent to infectious periods in the donor pigs was clearly defined by successful transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD to all contact pigs that were exposed to the donors from 24 hpi and later. This onset of infectiousness occurred concurrent with detection of viremia, but approximately 24 hours prior to the first appearance of clinical signs of FMD in the donors.Thus, the latent period of infection ended approximately 24 hours earlier than the end of the incubation period. There were significant differences between contact-exposed groups in the time elapsed from virus exposure to the first detection of FMDV shedding, viremia and clinical lesions. Specifically, the onset and progression of clinical FMD was more rapid in pigs that had been exposed to the donor pigs during more advanced phases of disease, suggesting that these animals had received a higher effective challenge dose. These results demonstrate transmission and dissemination of FMD within groups of pigs during the incubation period of infection. Furthermore, the findings suggest that under current conditions, shedding of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluids is a more precise proxy for FMDV infectiousness than clinical signs of infection. These findings may impact modeling of the propagation of

No between-pen transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in vaccinated pigs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roermund, van H.J.W.; Eblé, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Dekker, A.

2010-01-01

Many studies have shown transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) within groups of pigs, even when vaccinated, but only limited information is available on transmission between pens. Three new experiments were carried out in two replicates, which consisted of infectious pigs housed in a

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Samat, N. A.; Ma' arof, S. H. Mohd Imam [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjung Malim, Perak (Malaysia)

2014-12-04

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2014-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2014-12-01

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

Estimating risk factors for farm-level transmission of disease: Foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

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Paul R. Bessell

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Controlling an epidemic would be aided by establishing whether particular individuals in infected populations are more likely to transmit infection. However, few analyses have characterised such individuals. Such analyses require both data on who infected whom and on the likely determinants of transmission; data that are available at the farm level for the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease epidemic in Great Britain. Using these data a putative number of daughter infected premises (IPs resulting from each IP was calculated where these daughters were within 3 km of the IP. A set of possible epidemiological, demographic, spatial and temporal risk factors were analysed, with the final multivariate generalised linear model (Poisson error term having 6 statistically significant (p<0.05 main effects including geographic area, local cattle and sheep densities, and the number of non-IP culls. This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori. Such information could be used to help prioritise the response to an epidemic. Keywords: Foot and mouth disease, Epidemiology, Risk modelling, Livestock, Disease control

Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis: A comprehensive and integrative multi-modeling approach to disease prediction and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Erraguntla, Madhav; Zapletal, Josef; Lawley, Mark

2017-12-01

The impact of infectious disease on human populations is a function of many factors including environmental conditions, vector dynamics, transmission mechanics, social and cultural behaviors, and public policy. A comprehensive framework for disease management must fully connect the complete disease lifecycle, including emergence from reservoir populations, zoonotic vector transmission, and impact on human societies. The Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis is a software environment and conceptual architecture for data integration, situational awareness, visualization, prediction, and intervention assessment. Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis automatically collects biosurveillance data using natural language processing, integrates structured and unstructured data from multiple sources, applies advanced machine learning, and uses multi-modeling for analyzing disease dynamics and testing interventions in complex, heterogeneous populations. In the illustrative case studies, natural language processing from social media, news feeds, and websites was used for information extraction, biosurveillance, and situation awareness. Classification machine learning algorithms (support vector machines, random forests, and boosting) were used for disease predictions.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David L.; Perkins, T. Alex; Reiner, Robert C.; Barker, Christopher M.; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M.; George, Dylan B.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R. C.; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Garcia, Andres J.; Gatton, Michelle L.; Gething, Peter W.; Hartley, David M.; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y.; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L.; Pigott, David M.; Reisen, William K.; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K.; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J.; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Cohen, Justin M.; Hay, Simon I.; Scott, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control. PMID:24591453

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David L; Perkins, T Alex; Reiner, Robert C; Barker, Christopher M; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M; George, Dylan B; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A T; Garcia, Andres J; Gatton, Michelle L; Gething, Peter W; Hartley, David M; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L; Pigott, David M; Reisen, William K; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H Charles J; Cohen, Justin M; Hay, Simon I; Scott, Thomas W

2014-04-01

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Genesis of mammalian prions: from non-infectious amyloid fibrils to a transmissible prion disease.

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Natallia Makarava

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The transmissible agent of prion disease consists of a prion protein in its abnormal, β-sheet rich state (PrP(Sc, which is capable of replicating itself according to the template-assisted mechanism. This mechanism postulates that the folding pattern of a newly recruited polypeptide chain accurately reproduces that of a PrP(Sc template. Here we report that authentic PrP(Sc and transmissible prion disease can be generated de novo in wild type animals by recombinant PrP (rPrP amyloid fibrils, which are structurally different from PrP(Sc and lack any detectable PrP(Sc particles. When induced by rPrP fibrils, a long silent stage that involved two serial passages preceded development of the clinical disease. Once emerged, the prion disease was characterized by unique clinical, neuropathological, and biochemical features. The long silent stage to the disease was accompanied by significant transformation in neuropathological properties and biochemical features of the proteinase K-resistant PrP material (PrPres before authentic PrP(Sc evolved. The current work illustrates that transmissible prion diseases can be induced by PrP structures different from that of authentic PrP(Sc and suggests that a new mechanism different from the classical templating exists. This new mechanism designated as "deformed templating" postulates that a change in the PrP folding pattern from the one present in rPrP fibrils to an alternative specific for PrP(Sc can occur. The current work provides important new insight into the mechanisms underlying genesis of the transmissible protein states and has numerous implications for understanding the etiology of neurodegenerative diseases.

Dynamic modeling and analysis of sexually transmitted diseases on heterogeneous networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuping; Jin, Zhen

2015-06-01

Considering homosexual contacts and heterosexual contacts in the course of sexual contacts, double degrees which describe the numbers of homosexual contacts and heterosexual contacts are introduced, correlation coefficients about degrees based on the joint probability distribution are given, and an SIS mean-field model about sexually transmitted diseases is presented when degrees are uncorrelated. The basic reproduction number of diseases is studied by the method of next generation matrix. Results show that, when homosexual contacts and heterosexual contacts all exist, once the disease is epidemic in the interior of male (female) population which is caused by male (female) homosexual transmissions, or the disease is epidemic between the two species which is caused by heterosexual transmissions, the disease must be epidemic in the whole population. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results.

Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling

OpenAIRE

Bansal, Shweta; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Vespignani, Alessandro; Viboud, Cécile

2016-01-01

We devote a special issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases to review the recent advances of big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments and mobility. We consider a broad definition of big data for public health, one encompassing patient information gathered from high-volume electronic health records and participatory surveillance systems, as well as mining of digital traces such as socia...

Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin-feng; Guo, Yan-Sha; Christakos, George; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Liao, Yi-Lan; Li, Zhong-Jie; Li, Xiao-Zhou; Lai, Sheng-Jie; Chen, Hong-Yan

2011-04-05

The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types. HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

Place-based social contact and mixing: a typology of generic meeting places of relevance for infectious disease transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Strömgren, M; Holm, E; Dahlström, Ö; Ekberg, J; Eriksson, H; Spreco, A; Timpka, T

2017-09-01

This study aims to develop a typology of generic meeting places based on social contact and mixing of relevance for infectious disease transmission. Data were collected by means of a contact diary survey conducted on a representative sample of the Swedish population. The typology is derived from a cluster analysis accounting for four dimensions associated with transmission risk: visit propensity and its characteristics in terms of duration, number of other persons present and likelihood of physical contact. In the analysis, we also study demographic, socio-economic and geographical differences in the propensity of visiting meeting places. The typology identifies the family venue, the fixed activity site, the family vehicle, the trading plaza and the social network hub as generic meeting places. The meeting place typology represents a spatially explicit account of social contact and mixing relevant to infectious disease modelling, where the social context of the outbreak can be highlighted in light of the actual infectious disease.

Estimation of the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected sheep to cattle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bravo De Rueda, C.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Eble, P.L.; Dekker, A.

2014-01-01

The quantitative role of sheep in the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is not well known. To estimate the role of sheep in the transmission of FMDV, a direct contact transmission experiment with 10 groups of animals each consisting of 2 infected lambs and 1 contact calf was

The dangers of disease transmission by artificial insemination and embryo transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Philpott, M

1993-01-01

This review summarizes the major infectious diseases of the three major agricultural species (cattle, sheep and pigs) and horses, and presents the evidence for and against the possibility of infectious agents being transmitted between animals via the venereal route or by the use of semen or early embryos in commercial artificial insemination (AI) or embryo transfer (ET). Cattle feature most prominently in the widespread distribution of frozen semen, and national and international organizations have set out guidelines to work towards disease-free bull studs with semen free from potential pathogens. With the control of major epizootic diseases, attention has been focused on such diseases as IBR, BVD and blue tongue, where clinical signs are rarely evident but the detection of virus in semen is of great importance. New information on the relevance of bacterial disease such as Mycobacterium paratuberculosis, campylobacteriosis and leptospirosis is reviewed, along with details of the mycoplasma and ureaplasma species of the bull's genital tract. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has attracted much research and semen is not regarded as a source of infection. New work on the pathogenesis of a number of diseases and the use of new biotechnology in diagnosis is included. The International Embryo Transfer Society (IETS) has encouraged a great deal of experimental work--much originating in Canada--on the risk of transmission of disease from donors to recipients via a 7-day-old blastocyst. There has been much success in demonstrating that with an approved protocol of handling the embryos, to date there is very little danger in disease transmission with both viruses and bacteria. The mycoplasma group appear more intractable and the role of BSE is still being evaluated. In sheep, scrapie, Brucella ovis infection and blue tongue feature in current work. In the pig there is a surge in international movement of pig semen, and Aujeszky's disease and the new so-called Blue Ear

Meat and bone meal and mineral feed additives may increase the risk of oral prion disease transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Christopher J.; McKenzie, Debbie; Pedersen, Joel A.; Aiken, Judd M.

2011-01-01

Ingestion of prion-contaminated materials is postulated to be a primary route of prion disease transmission. Binding of prions to soil (micro)particles dramatically enhances peroral disease transmission relative to unbound prions, and it was hypothesized that micrometer-sized particles present in other consumed materials may affect prion disease transmission via the oral route of exposure. Small, insoluble particles are present in many substances, including soil, human foods, pharmaceuticals, and animal feeds. It is known that meat and bone meal (MBM), a feed additive believed responsible for the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), contains particles smaller than 20 μm and that the pathogenic prion protein binds to MBM. The potentiation of disease transmission via the oral route by exposure to MBM or three micrometer-sized mineral feed additives was determined. Data showed that when the disease agent was bound to any of the tested materials, the penetrance of disease was increased compared to unbound prions. Our data suggest that in feed or other prion-contaminated substances consumed by animals or, potentially, humans, the addition of MBM or the presence of microparticles could heighten risks of prion disease acquisition.

Disease elimination and re-emergence in differential-equation models.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhalgh, Scott; Galvani, Alison P; Medlock, Jan

2015-12-21

Traditional differential equation models of disease transmission are often used to predict disease trajectories and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies. However, such models cannot account explicitly for probabilistic events, such as those that dominate dynamics when disease prevalence is low during the elimination and re-emergence phases of an outbreak. To account for the dynamics at low prevalence, i.e. the elimination and risk of disease re-emergence, without the added analytical and computational complexity of a stochastic model, we develop a novel application of control theory. We apply our approach to analyze historical data of measles elimination and re-emergence in Iceland from 1923 to 1938, predicting the temporal trajectory of local measles elimination and re-emerge as a result of disease migration from Copenhagen, Denmark. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

2015-04-05

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Modelling of Rabies Transmission Dynamics Using Optimal Control Analysis

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Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We examine an optimal way of eradicating rabies transmission from dogs into the human population, using preexposure prophylaxis (vaccination and postexposure prophylaxis (treatment due to public education. We obtain the disease-free equilibrium, the endemic equilibrium, the stability, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal control model. Using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS, the forward-backward sweep scheme and the fourth-order Range-Kutta numerical method predict that the global alliance for rabies control’s aim of working to eliminate deaths from canine rabies by 2030 is attainable through mass vaccination of susceptible dogs and continuous use of pre- and postexposure prophylaxis in humans.

Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Osadolor Ebhuoma

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical

Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

2016-06-14

Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical

A Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Structured Vector Population and Seasonality

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Bakary Traoré

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of nonautonomous ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of malaria transmission with age structure for the vector population. The biting rate of mosquitoes is considered as a positive periodic function which depends on climatic factors. The basic reproduction ratio of the model is obtained and we show that it is the threshold parameter between the extinction and the persistence of the disease. Thus, by applying the theorem of comparison and the theory of uniform persistence, we prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if it is greater than 1, then there exists at least one positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical results.

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

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Max S Y Lau

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015. Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging.

Zika virus transmission to mouse ear by mosquito bite: a laboratory model that replicates the natural transmission process.

Science.gov (United States)

Secundino, Nagila Francinete Costa; Chaves, Barbara Aparecida; Orfano, Alessandra Silva; Silveira, Karine Renata Dias; Rodrigues, Nilton Barnabe; Campolina, Thais Bonifácio; Nacif-Pimenta, Rafael; Villegas, Luiz Eduardo Martinez; Silva, Breno Melo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Norris, Douglas Eric; Pimenta, Paulo Filemon Paolucci

2017-07-20

Zika disease has transformed into a serious global health problem due to the rapid spread of the arbovirus and alarming severity including congenital complications, microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted to humans through the bite of an infective mosquito, with Aedes aegypti being the main vector. We successfully developed a ZIKV experimental transmission model by single infectious Ae. aegypti bite to a laboratory mouse using circulating Brazilian strains of both arbovirus and vector. Mosquitoes were orally infected and single Ae. aegypti were allowed to feed on mouse ears 14 days post-infection. Additionally, salivary gland (SG) homogenates from infected mosquitoes were intrathoracically inoculated into naïve Ae. aegypti. Mosquito and mouse tissue samples were cultured in C6/36 cells and processed by quantitative real-time PCR. A total of 26 Ae. aegypti were allowed to feed individually on mouse ears. Of these, 17 mosquitoes fed, all to full engorgement. The transmission rate of ZIKV by bite from these engorged mosquitoes to mouse ears was 100%. The amount of virus inoculated into the ears by bites ranged from 2 × 10 2 -2.1 × 10 10 ZIKV cDNA copies and was positively correlated with ZIKV cDNA quantified from SGs dissected from mosquitoes post-feeding. Replicating ZIKV was confirmed in macerated SGs (2.45 × 10 7 cDNA copies), mouse ear tissue (1.15 × 10 3 cDNA copies, and mosquitoes 14 days post-intrathoracic inoculation (1.49 × 10 7 cDNA copies) by cytopathic effect in C6/36 cell culture and qPCR. Our model illustrates successful transmission of ZIKV by an infectious mosquito bite to a live vertebrate host. This approach offers a comprehensive tool for evaluating the development of infection in and transmission from mosquitoes, and the vertebrate-ZIKV interaction and progression of infection following a natural transmission process.

Using Dynamic Transmission Modeling to Determine Vaccination Coverage Rate Based on 5-Year Economic Burden of Infectious Disease: An Example of Pneumococcal Vaccine.

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Wen, Yu-Wen; Wu, Hsin; Chang, Chee-Jen

2015-05-01

Vaccination can reduce the incidence and mortality of an infectious disease and thus increase the years of life and productivity for the entire society. But when determining the vaccination coverage rate, its economic burden is usually not taken into account. This article aimed to use a dynamic transmission modeling (DTM), which is based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model and is a system of differential equations, to find the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the economic burden of an infectious disease. Vaccination for pneumococcal diseases was used as an example to demonstrate the main purpose. 23-Valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have shown their cost-effectiveness in elderly and children, respectively. Scenarios analysis of PPV23 to elderly aged 65+ years and of PCV13 to children aged 0 to 4 years was applied to assess the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the 5-year economic burden. Model parameters were derived from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, government data, and published literature. Various vaccination coverage rates, the vaccine efficacy, and all epidemiologic parameters were substituted into DTM, and all differential equations were solved in R Statistical Software. If the coverage rate of PPV23 for the elderly and of PCV13 for the children both reach 50%, the economic burden due to pneumococcal disease will be acceptable. This article provided an alternative perspective from the economic burden of diseases to obtain a vaccination coverage rate using the DTM. This will provide valuable information for vaccination policy decision makers. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review.

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Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason

2018-04-18

Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mesenchymal Stem Cells Inhibit Transmission of α-Synuclein by Modulating Clathrin-Mediated Endocytosis in a Parkinsonian Model

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Se Hee Oh

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Ample evidence suggests that α-synuclein is released from cells and propagated from one area of the brain to others via cell-to-cell transmission. In terms of their prion-like behavior, α-synuclein propagation plays key roles in the pathogenesis and progression of α-synucleinopathies. Using α-synuclein-enriched models, we show that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs inhibited α-synuclein transmission by blocking the clathrin-mediated endocytosis of extracellular α-synuclein via modulation of the interaction with N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors, which led to a prosurvival effect on cortical and dopaminergic neurons with functional improvement of motor deficits in α-synuclein-enriched models. Furthermore, we identify that galectin-1, a soluble factor derived from MSCs, played an important role in the transmission control of aggregated α-synuclein in these models. The present data indicated that MSCs exert neuroprotective properties through inhibition of extracellular α-synuclein transmission, suggesting that the property of MSCs may act as a disease-modifying therapy in subjects with α-synucleinopathies.

Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

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Santanu Biswas

Full Text Available Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To address this issue, we propose an extensive SIR-type model for anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission with seasonal fluctuations modeled in the form of periodic sandfly biting rate. Fitting the model for real data reported in South Sudan, we estimate the model parameters and compare the model predictions with known VL cases. Using optimal control theory, we study the effects of popular control strategies namely, drug-based treatment of symptomatic and PKDL-infected individuals, insecticide treated bednets and spray of insecticides on the dynamics of infected human and vector populations. We propose that the strategies remain ineffective in curbing the disease individually, as opposed to the use of optimal combinations of the mentioned strategies. Testing the model for different optimal combinations while considering periodic seasonal fluctuations, we find that the optimal combination of treatment of individuals and insecticide sprays perform well in controlling the disease for the time period of intervention introduced. Performing a cost-effective analysis we identify that the same strategy also proves to be efficacious and cost-effective. Finally, we suggest that our model would be helpful for policy makers to predict the best intervention strategies for specific time periods and their appropriate implementation for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis.

Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate

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Li Xiao-Zhou

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000 ~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. Methods and Findings HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation types. Conclusions HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

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Fred Brauer

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects.We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact. In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.

Vaccination of pigs two weeks before infection significantly reduces transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eble, P.L.; Bouma, A.; Bruin, de M.G.M.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van F.; Oirschot, van J.T.; Dekker, A.

2004-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate whether and at what time interval could vaccination reduce transmission of foot-and-Mouth disease virus (FMDV) among pigs. Reduction of virus transmission by vaccination was determined experimentally. Transmission of FMDV was studied in three groups of

Feeder density enhances house finch disease transmission in experimental epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Moyers, Sahnzi C; Adelman, James S; Farine, Damien R; Thomason, Courtney A; Hawley, Dana M

2018-05-05

Anthropogenic food provisioning of wildlife can alter the frequency of contacts among hosts and between hosts and environmental sources of pathogens. Despite the popularity of garden bird feeding, few studies have addressed how feeders influence host contact rates and disease dynamics. We experimentally manipulated feeder density in replicate aviaries containing captive, pathogen-naive, groups of house finches ( Haemorhous mexicanus ) and continuously tracked behaviours at feeders using radio-frequency identification devices. We then inoculated one bird per group with Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg), a common bacterial pathogen for which feeders are fomites of transmission, and assessed effects of feeder density on house finch behaviour and pathogen transmission. We found that pathogen transmission was significantly higher in groups with the highest density of bird feeders, despite a significantly lower rate of intraspecific aggressive interactions relative to the low feeder density groups. Conversely, among naive group members that never showed signs of disease, we saw significantly higher concentrations of Mg-specific antibodies in low feeder density groups, suggesting that birds in low feeder density treatments had exposure to subclinical doses of Mg. We discuss ways in which the density of garden bird feeders could play an important role in mediating the intensity of Mg epidemics.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Interferon lambda (IFN-λ) efficiently blocks norovirus transmission in a mouse model.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocha-Pereira, Joana; Jacobs, Sophie; Noppen, Sam; Verbeken, Eric; Michiels, Thomas; Neyts, Johan

2018-01-01

Human noroviruses are highly efficient in person to person transmission thus associated with explosive outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis. Outbreak control is limited to disinfection and isolation measures. Strategies to control the spread of noroviruses should be developed and models to study norovirus transmission will greatly facilitate this. Here, a mouse-to-mouse transmission model, in which mice develop acute murine norovirus (MNV)-induced diarrhea, was used to explore the role of interferon lambda (IFN-λ) in the control of a norovirus infection. Sentinel AG129 mice [deficient in IFN-α/β and IFN-γ receptors] that were co-housed with MNV-infected mice shedding high amounts of virus in their stool, developed a MNV-infection with associated diarrhea. Inoculation of such sentinel mice with an IFN-λ expression plasmid resulted in the production of circulating IFN-λ and upregulation of the expression of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs) of the gut. Injection of the IFN-λ-expressing plasmid to sentinels prevents MNV-induced disease upon exposure to MNV-infected mice, as well as MNV replication in the small intestine, the associated signs of inflammation and the mounting of a specific IgG-based immune response. This demonstrates that IFN-λ can alone mediate protection against transmission of norovirus. The development of a simple delivery method for IFN-λ could be explored as a strategy to control norovirus outbreaks and protect vulnerable populations such as the elderly and immunocompromised. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Malaria's missing number: calculating the human component of R0 by a within-host mechanistic model of Plasmodium falciparum infection and transmission.

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Geoffrey L Johnston

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Human infection by malarial parasites of the genus Plasmodium begins with the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Current estimates place malaria mortality at over 650,000 individuals each year, mostly in African children. Efforts to reduce disease burden can benefit from the development of mathematical models of disease transmission. To date, however, comprehensive modeling of the parameters defining human infectivity to mosquitoes has remained elusive. Here, we describe a mechanistic within-host model of Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans and pathogen transmission to the mosquito vector. Our model incorporates the entire parasite lifecycle, including the intra-erythrocytic asexual forms responsible for disease, the onset of symptoms, the development and maturation of intra-erythrocytic gametocytes that are transmissible to Anopheles mosquitoes, and human-to-mosquito infectivity. These model components were parameterized from malaria therapy data and other studies to simulate individual infections, and the ensemble of outputs was found to reproduce the full range of patient responses to infection. Using this model, we assessed human infectivity over the course of untreated infections and examined the effects in relation to transmission intensity, expressed by the basic reproduction number R0 (defined as the number of secondary cases produced by a single typical infection in a completely susceptible population. Our studies predict that net human-to-mosquito infectivity from a single non-immune individual is on average equal to 32 fully infectious days. This estimate of mean infectivity is equivalent to calculating the human component of malarial R0 . We also predict that mean daily infectivity exceeds five percent for approximately 138 days. The mechanistic framework described herein, made available as stand-alone software, will enable investigators to conduct detailed studies into theories of malaria control, including the effects of

Abordagem nas doenças sexualmente transmissíveis Approach in sexually transmitted diseases

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Walter Belda Junior

2009-04-01

Full Text Available As doenças sexualmente transmissíveis estão entre os problemas de saúde pública mais comuns em todo o mundo. Entre suas consequências estão a infertilidade feminina e masculina, a transmissão de mãe para filho, determinando perdas gestacionais ou doença congênita, e o aumento do risco para a infecção pelo HIV. Dessa forma, este guideline tem o objetivo de contribuir para melhorar a qualidade de atenção às pessoas com infecções sexualmente transmissíveis mais frequentes no Brasil, trazendo de forma didática e concreta o estado atual dos conhecimentos para os dermatologistas e médicos em geral que atuam no atendimento dessas pessoas e as principais recomendações para o diagnóstico e tratamento das doenças sexualmente transmissíveis mais recorrentes.Nowadays, sexually transmitted diseases are one of the most common public health issues. Among its consequences are the possibility of transmission from mother to baby - which may cause miscarriages and congenital disease, male and female infertility, and the increase of HIV infection risk. Therefore, the main goal of these guidelines is to contribute to the improvement of the treatment for sexually transmitted diseases patients by presenting to the medical community how today's science stands on the matter and also what the recommendation for diagnosing and treating a patient are.

Transmissibility of the monkeypox virus clades via respiratory transmission: investigation using the prairie dog-monkeypox virus challenge system.

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Christina L Hutson

Full Text Available Monkeypox virus (MPXV is endemic within Africa where it sporadically is reported to cause outbreaks of human disease. In 2003, an outbreak of human MPXV occurred in the US after the importation of infected African rodents. Since the eradication of smallpox (caused by an orthopoxvirus (OPXV related to MPXV and cessation of routine smallpox vaccination (with the live OPXV vaccinia, there is an increasing population of people susceptible to OPXV diseases. Previous studies have shown that the prairie dog MPXV model is a functional animal model for the study of systemic human OPXV illness. Studies with this model have demonstrated that infected animals are able to transmit the virus to naive animals through multiple routes of exposure causing subsequent infection, but were not able to prove that infected animals could transmit the virus exclusively via the respiratory route. Herein we used the model system to evaluate the hypothesis that the Congo Basin clade of MPXV is more easily transmitted, via respiratory route, than the West African clade. Using a small number of test animals, we show that transmission of viruses from each of the MPXV clade was minimal via respiratory transmission. However, transmissibility of the Congo Basin clade was slightly greater than West African MXPV clade (16.7% and 0% respectively. Based on these findings, respiratory transmission appears to be less efficient than those of previous studies assessing contact as a mechanism of transmission within the prairie dog MPXV animal model.

Chronic wasting disease prions are not transmissible to transgenic mice overexpressing human prion protein.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandberg, Malin K; Al-Doujaily, Huda; Sigurdson, Christina J; Glatzel, Markus; O'Malley, Catherine; Powell, Caroline; Asante, Emmanuel A; Linehan, Jacqueline M; Brandner, Sebastian; Wadsworth, Jonathan D F; Collinge, John

2010-10-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease that affects free-ranging and captive cervids, including mule deer, white-tailed deer, Rocky Mountain elk and moose. CWD-infected cervids have been reported in 14 USA states, two Canadian provinces and in South Korea. The possibility of a zoonotic transmission of CWD prions via diet is of particular concern in North America where hunting of cervids is a popular sport. To investigate the potential public health risks posed by CWD prions, we have investigated whether intracerebral inoculation of brain and spinal cord from CWD-infected mule deer transmits prion infection to transgenic mice overexpressing human prion protein with methionine or valine at polymorphic residue 129. These transgenic mice have been utilized in extensive transmission studies of human and animal prion disease and are susceptible to BSE and vCJD prions, allowing comparison with CWD. Here, we show that these mice proved entirely resistant to infection with mule deer CWD prions arguing that the transmission barrier associated with this prion strain/host combination is greater than that observed with classical BSE prions. However, it is possible that CWD may be caused by multiple prion strains. Further studies will be required to evaluate the transmission properties of distinct cervid prion strains as they are characterized.

The role of the ratio of vector and host densities in the evolution of transmission modes in vector-borne diseases. The example of sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi.

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Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M

2012-11-07

Pathogens may use different routes of transmission to maximize their spread among host populations. Theoretical and empirical work conducted on directly transmitted diseases suggest that horizontal (i.e., through host contacts) and vertical (i.e., from mother to offspring) transmission modes trade off, on the ground that highly virulent pathogens, which produce larger parasite loads, are more efficiently transmitted horizontally, and that less virulent pathogens, which impair host fitness less significantly, are better transmitted vertically. Other factors than virulence such as host density could also select for different transmission modes, but they have barely been studied. In vector-borne diseases, pathogen transmission rate is strongly affected by host-vector relative densities and by processes of saturation in contacts between hosts and vectors. The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi which is transmitted by triatomine bugs to several vertebrate hosts is responsible for Chagas' disease in Latin America. It is also widespread in sylvatic cycles in the southeastern U.S. in which it typically induces no mortality costs to its customary hosts. Besides classical transmission via vector bites, alternative ways to generate infections in hosts such as vertical and oral transmission (via the consumption of vectors by hosts) have been reported in these cycles. The two major T. cruzi strains occurring in the U.S. seem to exhibit differential efficiencies at vertical and classical horizontal transmissions. We investigated whether the vector-host ratio affects the outcome of the competition between the two parasite strains using an epidemiological two-strain model considering all possible transmission routes for sylvatic T. cruzi. We were able to show that the vector-host ratio influences the evolution of transmission modes providing that oral transmission is included in the model as a possible transmission mode, that oral and classical transmissions saturate at different vector

Nonlinear dynamics modelling of multistage micro-planetary gear transmission

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Li Jianying

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The transmission structure of a 2K-H multistage micro-planetary gear transmission reducer is described in detail, and three assumptions are supposed in dynamic modelling. On basis of these assumptions, a three stages 2K-H micro-planetary gear transmission dynamic model is established, in which the relative displacement each meshing gear pairs can be obtained after including the comprehensive transmission error. According to gear kinematics, the friction arms between the sun gear, the ring gear and the nth planet are also obtained, and the friction coefficient in the mixed elastohydrodynamic lubrication is considered, the transmission system motion differential equations are obtained, including above factors and the time-varying meshing stiffness, damping and backlash, inter-stage coupling stiffness, it can be provided an theoretical foundation for further analysing the parameter sensitivity, dynamic stability and designing.

Modelling the epidemiology of infectious diseases for decision analysis: a primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Jit, Mark; Brisson, Marc

2011-05-01

The number of economic evaluations related to infectious disease topics has increased over the last 2 decades. However, many such evaluations rely on models that do not take into account unique features of infectious diseases that can affect the estimated value of interventions against them. These include their transmissibility from infected to susceptible individuals, the possibility of acquiring natural immunity following recovery from infection and the uncertainties that arise as a result of their complex natural history and epidemiology. Modellers conducting economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions need to know the main features of different types of infectious disease models, the situations in which they should be applied and the effects of model choices on the cost effectiveness of interventions.

Avian influenza H5N1 transmission in households, Indonesia.

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Tjandra Y Aditama

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Disease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared cases (n = 177 and contacts (n = 496 in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

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Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Quattrochi, Dale; Crosson, William; Hayden, Mary; Ernst, Kacey

2015-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US-Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

CystiSim - An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

2016-12-01

Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities-pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bansal, Shweta; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone

2016-01-01

We devote a special issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases to review the recent advances of big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments and mobility. We consider a broad definition of big data...... issue and highlight several cross-cutting areas that require further research, including representativeness, biases, volatility, and validation, and the need for robust statistical and hypotheses-driven analyses. Overall, we are optimistic that the big-data revolution will vastly improve the granularity...

Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinh, Minh-Chau; Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon; Yu, In-Keun

2012-01-01

The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinh, Minh-Chau, E-mail: thanchau7787@gmail.com [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Yu, In-Keun, E-mail: yuik@changwon.ac.kr [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of)

2012-08-15

The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Faye, Ousmane; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Heleze, Emmanuel; Faye, Oumar; Loucoubar, Cheikh; Magassouba, N'Faly; Soropogui, Barré; Keita, Sakoba; Gakou, Tata; Bah, El Hadji Ibrahima; Koivogui, Lamine; Sall, Amadou Alpha; Cauchemez, Simon

2015-03-01

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease of unprecedented size continues in parts of west Africa. For the first time, large urban centres such as Conakry, the capital of Guinea, are affected. We did an observational study of patients with Ebola virus disease in three regions of Guinea, including Conakry, aiming to map the routes of transmission and assess the effect of interventions. Between Feb 10, 2014, and Aug 25, 2014, we obtained data from the linelist of all confirmed and probable cases in Guinea (as of Sept 16, 2014), a laboratory database of information about patients, and interviews with patients and their families and neighbours. With this information, we mapped chains of transmission, identified which setting infections most probably originated from (community, hospitals, or funerals), and computed the context-specific and overall reproduction numbers. Of 193 confirmed and probable cases of Ebola virus disease reported in Conakry, Boffa, and Télimélé, 152 (79%) were positioned in chains of transmission. Health-care workers contributed little to transmission. In March, 2014, individuals with Ebola virus disease who were not health-care workers infected a mean of 2·3 people (95% CI 1·6-3·2): 1·4 (0·9-2·2) in the community, 0·4 (0·1-0·9) in hospitals, and 0·5 (0·2-1·0) at funerals. After the implementation of infection control in April, the reproduction number in hospitals and at funerals reduced to lower than 0·1. In the community, the reproduction number dropped by 50% for patients that were admitted to hospital, but remained unchanged for those that were not. In March, hospital transmissions constituted 35% (seven of 20) of all transmissions and funeral transmissions constituted 15% (three); but from April to the end of the study period, they constituted only 9% (11 of 128) and 4% (five), respectively. 82% (119 of 145) of transmission occurred in the community and 72% (105) between family members. Our simulations show that a 10% increase in

Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

2018-02-01

Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

2016-10-01

Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases

OpenAIRE

Fred Brauer

2017-01-01

We formulate and analyze an age of infection model for epidemics of diseases transmitted by a vector, including the possibility of direct transmission as well. We show how to determine a basic reproduction number. While there is no explicit final size relation as for diseases transmitted directly, we are able to obtain estimates for the final size of the epidemic.

Modeling Marek's disease virus transmission: A framework for evaluating the impact of farming practices and evolution

OpenAIRE

David A. Kennedy; Patricia A. Dunn; Andrew F. Read

2018-01-01

Marek's disease virus (MDV) is a pathogen of chickens whose control has twice been undermined by pathogen evolution. Disease ecology is believed to be the main driver of this evolution, yet mathematical models of MDV disease ecology have never been confronted with data to test their reliability. Here, we develop a suite of MDV models that differ in the ecological mechanisms they include. We fit these models with maximum likelihood using iterated filtering in ‘pomp’ to data on MDV concentratio...

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease lookback study: 21 years of surveillance for transfusion transmission risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Crowder, Lauren A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Dodd, Roger Y; Steele, Whitney R

2017-08-01

Transfusion transmission of human prion diseases has been observed for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), but not for the classic forms of prion disease (CJD: sporadic, genetic, and iatrogenic). Although the presence of prions or misfolded prion proteins in blood has been documented in some patients with the most common form of CJD, sporadic CJD, no transfusion-transmitted cases of CJD have been recognized. Since 1995, the American Red Cross has conducted a lookback study of the recipients of blood products from donors who develop CJD to assess the risk of blood-borne CJD transmission in the United States. Blood donors subsequently diagnosed with confirmed or probable CJD were enrolled and the consignees were asked to identify the recipients of their blood products. These donors' transfusion recipients are traced annually with the National Death Index to see if they subsequently die of CJD. To date, 65 CJD donors have been enrolled along with 826 of their blood recipients. These recipients have contributed 3934 person-years of follow-up and no transfusion-transmitted cases of CJD have been recognized. From this study, as well as other epidemiologic studies, there is no evidence of CJD transfusion transmission; this risk remains theoretical. © 2017 AABB.

Towards Chagas disease elimination: Neonatal screening for congenital transmission in rural communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Pennington, Pamela Marie; Juárez, José Guillermo; Arrivillaga, Margarita Rivera; De Urioste-Stone, Sandra María; Doktor, Katherine; Bryan, Joe P; Escobar, Clara Yaseli; Cordón-Rosales, Celia

2017-09-01

Chagas disease is a neglected tropical disease that continues to affect populations living in extreme poverty in Latin America. After successful vector control programs, congenital transmission remains as a challenge to disease elimination. We used the PRECEDE-PROCEED planning model to develop strategies for neonatal screening of congenital Chagas disease in rural communities of Guatemala. These communities have persistent high triatomine infestations and low access to healthcare. We used mixed methods with multiple stakeholders to identify and address maternal-infant health behaviors through semi-structured interviews, participatory group meetings, archival reviews and a cross-sectional survey in high risk communities. From December 2015 to April 2016, we jointly developed a strategy to illustratively advertise newborn screening at the Health Center. The strategy included socioculturally appropriate promotional and educational material, in collaboration with midwives, nurses and nongovernmental organizations. By March 2016, eight of 228 (3.9%) pregnant women had been diagnosed with T. cruzi at the Health Center. Up to this date, no neonatal screening had been performed. By August 2016, seven of eight newborns born to Chagas seropositive women had been parasitologically screened at the Health Center, according to international standards. Thus, we implemented a successful community-based neonatal screening strategy to promote congenital Chagas disease healthcare in a rural setting. The success of the health promotion strategies developed will depend on local access to maternal-infant services, integration with detection of other congenital diseases and reliance on community participation in problem and solution definition.

Local Stability of AIDS Epidemic Model Through Treatment and Vertical Transmission with Time Delay

Science.gov (United States)

Novi W, Cascarilla; Lestari, Dwi

2016-02-01

This study aims to explain stability of the spread of AIDS through treatment and vertical transmission model. Human with HIV need a time to positively suffer AIDS. The existence of a time, human with HIV until positively suffer AIDS can be delayed for a time so that the model acquired is the model with time delay. The model form is a nonlinear differential equation with time delay, SIPTA (susceptible-infected-pre AIDS-treatment-AIDS). Based on SIPTA model analysis results the disease free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. The disease free equilibrium point with and without time delay are local asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. The endemic equilibrium point will be local asymptotically stable if the time delay is less than the critical value of delay, unstable if the time delay is more than the critical value of delay, and bifurcation occurs if the time delay is equal to the critical value of delay.

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez-Bakker, Micaela; King, Aaron A; Rohani, Pejman

2015-06-01

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio's historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio's seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing "disease of development" hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio's historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

Burden of Disease Attributed to Waterborne Transmission of Selected Enteric Pathogens, Australia, 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibney, Katherine B; O'Toole, Joanne; Sinclair, Martha; Leder, Karin

2017-06-01

AbstractUniversal access to safe drinking water is a global priority. To estimate the annual disease burden of campylobacteriosis, nontyphoidal salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and norovirus attributable to waterborne transmission in Australia, we multiplied regional World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of the proportion of cases attributable to waterborne transmission by estimates of all-source disease burden for each study pathogen. Norovirus was attributed as causing the most waterborne disease cases (479,632; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0-1,111,874) followed by giardiasis and campylobacteriosis. The estimated waterborne disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden for campylobacteriosis (2,004; 95% UI: 0-5,831) was 7-fold greater than other study pathogens and exceeded the WHO guidelines for drinking water quality (1 × 10 -6 DALY per person per year) by 90-fold. However, these estimates include disease transmitted via either drinking or recreational water exposure. More precise country-specific and drinking water-specific attribution estimates would better define the health burden from drinking water and inform changes to treatment requirements.

The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

Science.gov (United States)

Geard, Nicholas; Glass, Kathryn; McCaw, James M; McBryde, Emma S; Korb, Kevin B; Keeling, Matt J; McVernon, Jodie

2015-12-01

The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. Here we use an individual based model with realistic and dynamic age and household structure to demonstrate the marked effect that demographic change has on disease transmission at the population and household level. The decline in fertility is associated with a decrease in disease incidence and an increase in the age of first infection, even in the absence of vaccination or other control measures. Although large households become rarer as fertility decreases, we show that there is a proportionate increase in incidence of disease in these households as the accumulation of susceptible clusters increases the potential for explosive outbreaks. By modelling vaccination, we provide a direct comparison of the relative importance of demographic change and vaccination on incidence of disease. We highlight the increased risks associated with unvaccinated households in a low fertility setting if vaccine behaviour is correlated with household membership. We suggest that models that do not account for future demographic change, and especially its effect on household structure, may potentially overestimate the impact of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rigorous theoretical derivation of lumped models to transmission line systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Jixiang

2012-01-01

By virtue of the negative electric parameter concept, i.e. negative lumped resistance, inductance, conductance and capacitance (N-RLGC), the lumped equivalent models of transmission line systems, including the circuit model, two-port π-network and T-network, are given. We start from the N-segment-ladder-like equivalent networks composed distributed parameters, and achieve the input impedance in the form of a continued fraction. Utilizing the continued fraction theory, the expressions of input impedance are obtained under three kinds of extreme cases, i.e. the load impedances are equal to zero, infinity and characteristic impedance, respectively. When the number of segment N is limited to infinity, they are transformed to lumped elements. Comparison between the distributed model and lumped model of transmission lines, the expression of tanh γd, which is the key term in the transmission line equations, are obtained by RLGC, furthermore, according to input admittance, admittance matrix and ABCD matrix of transmission lines, the lumped equivalent circuit models, π-networks and T-networks have been given. The models are verified in the frequency and time domain, respectively, showing that the models are accurate and efficient. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin

2015-10-01

Since the re-emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, comprehensive and stringent interventions have been implemented to decelerate the spread of the disease. The effectiveness of interventions still remains unclear. In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model that includes various controlling measures to systematically evaluate their effects on the disease transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to reported cumulative cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia until March 22, 2015, we estimate the basic reproduction number in these countries as 1.2552, 1.6093 and 1.7994, respectively. Model analysis shows that there exists a threshold of the effectiveness of isolation, below which increasing the fraction of latent individuals diagnosed prior to symptoms onset or shortening the duration between symptoms onset and isolation may lead to more Ebola infection. This challenges an existing view. Media coverage plays a substantial role in reducing the final epidemic size. The response to reported cumulative infected cases and deaths may have a different effect on the epidemic spread in different countries. Among all the interventions, we find that shortening the duration between death and burial and improving the effectiveness of isolation are two effective interventions for controlling the outbreak of Ebola virus infection.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Organ Donation: Is There Risk of Disease Transmission?

OpenAIRE

Holmes, Brandon B.; Diamond, Marc I.

2012-01-01

A new protocol suggests that patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are a viable source of tissue for organ transplantation. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that many neurodegenerative diseases, including ALS, might progress due to transcellular propagation of protein aggregation among neurons. Transmission of the disease state from donor to host thus may be possible under the permissive circumstances of graft transplantation. We argue for careful patient selection and ...

Defining sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease strains and their transmission properties

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, Matthew T.; Will, Robert G.; Manson, Jean C.

2010-01-01

The biological determinants of the phenotypic variation in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) are unknown. To categorize sCJD cases, the prion protein (PrP) codon 129 genotype and the biochemical characteristics of the disease-associated form of PrP (PrPSc) can be combined to form six subgroups (MM1, MM2, MV1, MV2, VV1, and VV2). This classification largely correlates with the known variation in the clinical and pathological features of sCJD, with the MM1 and MV1 cases representing the “classic” phenotype of sCJD. To address how this classification relates to different strains of sCJD we have inoculated each subgroup of sCJD to a panel of mice expressing different forms of the human PRNP gene (129MM, 129VV, and 129MV). We have established that all subtypes are transmissible to at least one genotype of mouse, and both agent and host factors determine transmission efficiency and the form of PrPSc deposited in the brain. Moreover, we have identified four distinct strains of sCJD using our in vivo strain typing panel. PMID:20547859

A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Feitosa

1993-06-01

Full Text Available A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66, probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11, probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

UK Iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: investigating human prion transmission across genotypic barriers using human tissue-based and molecular approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, Diane L; Barria, Marcelo A; Peden, Alexander H; Yull, Helen M; Kirkpatrick, James; Adlard, Peter; Ironside, James W; Head, Mark W

2017-04-01

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is the prototypic human prion disease that occurs most commonly in sporadic and genetic forms, but it is also transmissible and can be acquired through medical procedures, resulting in iatrogenic CJD (iCJD). The largest numbers of iCJD cases that have occurred worldwide have resulted from contaminated cadaveric pituitary-derived human growth hormone (hGH) and its use to treat primary and secondary growth hormone deficiency. We report a comprehensive, tissue-based and molecular genetic analysis of the largest series of UK hGH-iCJD cases reported to date, including in vitro kinetic molecular modelling of genotypic factors influencing prion transmission. The results show the interplay of prion strain and host genotype in governing the molecular, pathological and temporal characteristics of the UK hGH-iCJD epidemic and provide insights into the adaptive mechanisms involved when prions cross genotypic barriers. We conclude that all of the available evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the UK hGH-iCJD epidemic resulted from transmission of the V2 human prion strain, which is associated with the second most common form of sporadic CJD.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and organ donation: is there risk of disease transmission?

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Brandon B; Diamond, Marc I

2012-12-01

A new protocol suggests that patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are a viable source of tissue for organ transplantation. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that many neurodegenerative diseases, including ALS, might progress due to transcellular propagation of protein aggregation among neurons. Transmission of the disease state from donor to host thus may be possible under the permissive circumstances of graft transplantation. We argue for careful patient selection and close longitudinal follow-up of recipients when harvesting organs from individuals with neurodegenerative disease, especially dominantly inherited forms. Copyright © 2012 American Neurological Association.

Study on Tower Models for EHV Transmission Line

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Xu Bao-Qing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Lightning outage accident is one of the main factors that threat seriously the safe and reliable operation of power system. So it is very important to establish reasonable transmission tower model and evaluate the impulse response characteristic of lightning wave traveling on the transmission tower properly for determining reliable lightning protection performance. With the help of Electromagnetic Transient Program (EMTP, six 500kV tower models are built. Aiming at one line to one transformer operating mode of 500kV substation, the intruding wave overvoltage under different tower models is calculated. The effect of tower model on intruding overvoltage has been studied. The results show that different tower models can result in great differences to the calculation results. Hence, reasonable selection of the tower model in the calculation of back- strike intruding wave is very important.

Realistic modeling of radiation transmission inspection systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sale, K.E.

1993-01-01

We have applied Monte Carlo particle transport methods to assess a proposed neutron transmission inspection system for checked luggage. The geometry of the system and the time, energy and angle dependence of the source have been modeled in detail. A pulsed deuteron beam incident on a thick Be target generates a neutron pulse with a very broad energy spectrum which is detected after passage through the luggage item by a plastic scintillator detector operating in current mode (as opposed to pulse counting mode). The neutron transmission as a function of time information is used to infer the densities of hydrogen, carbon, oxygen and nitrogen in the volume sampled. The measured elemental densities can be compared to signatures for explosives or other contraband. By using such computational modeling it is possible to optimize many aspects of the design of an inspection system without costly and time consuming prototyping experiments or to determine that a proposed scheme will not work. The methods applied here can be used to evaluate neutron or photon schemes based on transmission, scattering or reaction techniques

CystiSim – An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

2016-01-01

Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities—pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

The selection pressures induced non-smooth infectious disease model and bifurcation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin, Wenjie; Tang, Sanyi

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A non-smooth infectious disease model to describe selection pressure is developed. • The effect of selection pressure on infectious disease transmission is addressed. • The key factors which are related to the threshold value are determined. • The stabilities and bifurcations of model have been revealed in more detail. • Strategies for the prevention of emerging infectious disease are proposed. - Abstract: Mathematical models can assist in the design strategies to control emerging infectious disease. This paper deduces a non-smooth infectious disease model induced by selection pressures. Analysis of this model reveals rich dynamics including local, global stability of equilibria and local sliding bifurcations. Model solutions ultimately stabilize at either one real equilibrium or the pseudo-equilibrium on the switching surface of the present model, depending on the threshold value determined by some related parameters. Our main results show that reducing the threshold value to a appropriate level could contribute to the efficacy on prevention and treatment of emerging infectious disease, which indicates that the selection pressures can be beneficial to prevent the emerging infectious disease under medical resource limitation

Nipah virus transmission in a hamster model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmie de Wit

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Based on epidemiological data, it is believed that human-to-human transmission plays an important role in Nipah virus outbreaks. No experimental data are currently available on the potential routes of human-to-human transmission of Nipah virus. In a first dose-finding experiment in Syrian hamsters, it was shown that Nipah virus was predominantly shed via the respiratory tract within nasal and oropharyngeal secretions. Although Nipah viral RNA was detected in urogenital and rectal swabs, no infectious virus was recovered from these samples, suggesting no viable virus was shed via these routes. In addition, hamsters inoculated with high doses shed significantly higher amounts of viable Nipah virus particles in comparison with hamsters infected with lower inoculum doses. Using the highest inoculum dose, three potential routes of Nipah virus transmission were investigated in the hamster model: transmission via fomites, transmission via direct contact and transmission via aerosols. It was demonstrated that Nipah virus is transmitted efficiently via direct contact and inefficiently via fomites, but not via aerosols. These findings are in line with epidemiological data which suggest that direct contact with nasal and oropharyngeal secretions of Nipah virus infected individuals resulted in greater risk of Nipah virus infection. The data provide new and much-needed insights into the modes and efficiency of Nipah virus transmission and have important public health implications with regards to the risk assessment and management of future Nipah virus outbreaks.

Modelling the geographic distribution of wind power and the impact on transmission needs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2003-01-01

Through energy systems modelling, transmission systems modelling and geographical modelling, the article examines the sensitivity of the response of the transmission system to the geographic distributions of wind power and in particular the sensitivity of the results to the accuracy...... of the distributed modelled. The results show that accuracy of the geographic modelling while important for the analysis of specific single transmission lines is not important for the analysis of the general response of the transmission system. The analyses thus corroborate previous analyses that demonstrated...

AIDS e doenças oportunistas transmissíveis na faixa de fronteira Brasileira AIDS and transmissible opportunistic diseases in the Brazilian border area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Luiz Rodrigues-Júnior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available INTRODUÇÃO: A transmissão do HIV e de outras doenças transmissíveis, de pessoa a pessoa, pode ser associada à mobilidade humana. Este trabalho avaliou a incidência de doenças oportunistas transmissíveis entre os casos de AIDS, nos municípios da faixa de fronteira brasileira. MÉTODOS: Os municípios da faixa de fronteira brasileira foram agrupados em três regiões culturais; foram consideradas as notificações feitas ao Ministério da Saúde, entre 1990 e 2003, que tenham sido feitas com os critérios de definição CDC adaptado, Rio de Janeiro/Caracas e óbito; as doenças oportunistas detectadas foram agrupadas de acordo com o tipo de transmissão: 1 inalação do agente; 2 ingestão de água/alimento contaminado e 3 contato interpessoal. A análise descritiva considerou regiões culturais, anos de escolaridade, categoria de transmissão, sexo e faixa etária. RESULTADOS: Houve diferentes padrões de incidência de AIDS nos grupos de doenças oportunistas em cada região cultural. A região extremo-sul apresentou a maior incidência de AIDS; o número de casos de AIDS do sexo feminino foi maior na categoria heterossexual; o número de casos de AIDS do sexo masculino foi maior entre usuários de drogas injetáveis; as doenças transmitidas pelo contato interpessoal foram as mais frequentes, destacando a incidência de monilíases; a tuberculose e a pneumonia foram as mais frequentes dentre as doenças transmitidas pela inalação do agente; as doenças transmitidas pela ingestão de água/alimentos contaminados mostraram um padrão de incidência estável. CONCLUSÕES: A fronteira brasileira é um espaço geográfico importante e heterogêneo; o enfrentamento da AIDS deve reconhecer as diferentes geografias culturais.INTRODUCTION: Person-to-person transmission of HIV and other communicable diseases may be associated with human geographic mobility. This article evaluated the incidence of transmissible opportunistic diseases among

Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

2003-11-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

Towards Chagas disease elimination: Neonatal screening for congenital transmission in rural communities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pamela Marie Pennington

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease is a neglected tropical disease that continues to affect populations living in extreme poverty in Latin America. After successful vector control programs, congenital transmission remains as a challenge to disease elimination. We used the PRECEDE-PROCEED planning model to develop strategies for neonatal screening of congenital Chagas disease in rural communities of Guatemala. These communities have persistent high triatomine infestations and low access to healthcare. We used mixed methods with multiple stakeholders to identify and address maternal-infant health behaviors through semi-structured interviews, participatory group meetings, archival reviews and a cross-sectional survey in high risk communities. From December 2015 to April 2016, we jointly developed a strategy to illustratively advertise newborn screening at the Health Center. The strategy included socioculturally appropriate promotional and educational material, in collaboration with midwives, nurses and nongovernmental organizations. By March 2016, eight of 228 (3.9% pregnant women had been diagnosed with T. cruzi at the Health Center. Up to this date, no neonatal screening had been performed. By August 2016, seven of eight newborns born to Chagas seropositive women had been parasitologically screened at the Health Center, according to international standards. Thus, we implemented a successful community-based neonatal screening strategy to promote congenital Chagas disease healthcare in a rural setting. The success of the health promotion strategies developed will depend on local access to maternal-infant services, integration with detection of other congenital diseases and reliance on community participation in problem and solution definition.

The Application of Contagious Disease Epidemiological Models to Known Population Structure and Movement

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

concept model ( Ebola ) • Time-varying disease transmission rate () Influenza model • Population structure represented via finite scale-free network...I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S The Application of Contagious Disease Epidemiological Models to Known Population Structure ...Known Population Structure and Movement Julia K. Burr Robert L. Cubeta Lucas A. LaViolet Carl A. Curling This page is intentionally blank. iii

Light aircraft sound transmission studies - Noise reduction model

Science.gov (United States)

Atwal, Mahabir S.; Heitman, Karen E.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

1987-01-01

Experimental tests conducted on the fuselage of a single-engine Piper Cherokee light aircraft suggest that the cabin interior noise can be reduced by increasing the transmission loss of the dominant sound transmission paths and/or by increasing the cabin interior sound absorption. The validity of using a simple room equation model to predict the cabin interior sound-pressure level for different fuselage and exterior sound field conditions is also presented. The room equation model is based on the sound power flow balance for the cabin space and utilizes the measured transmitted sound intensity data. The room equation model predictions were considered good enough to be used for preliminary acoustical design studies.

Designing and Evaluating Interventions to Halt the Transmission of Tuberculosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowdy, David W; Grant, Alison D; Dheda, Keertan; Nardell, Edward; Fielding, Katherine; Moore, David A J

2017-11-03

To reduce the incidence of tuberculosis, it is insufficient to simply understand the dynamics of tuberculosis transmission. Rather, we must design and rigorously evaluate interventions to halt transmission, prioritizing those interventions most likely to achieve population-level impact. Synergy in reducing tuberculosis transmission may be attainable by combining interventions that shrink the reservoir of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (preventive therapy), shorten the time between disease onset and treatment initiation (case finding and diagnosis), and prevent transmission in key settings, such as the built environment (infection control). In evaluating efficacy and estimating population-level impact, cluster-randomized trials and mechanistic models play particularly prominent roles. Historical and contemporary evidence suggests that effective public health interventions can halt tuberculosis transmission, but an evidence-based approach based on knowledge of local epidemiology is necessary for success. We provide a roadmap for designing, evaluating, and modeling interventions to interrupt the process of transmission that fuels a diverse array of tuberculosis epidemics worldwide. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

A survey of the transmission of infectious diseases/infections between wild and domestic ungulates in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

The domestic animals/wildlife interface is becoming a global issue of growing interest. However, despite studies on wildlife diseases being in expansion, the epidemiological role of wild animals in the transmission of infectious diseases remains unclear most of the time. Multiple diseases affecting livestock have already been identified in wildlife, especially in wild ungulates. The first objective of this paper was to establish a list of infections already reported in European wild ungulates. For each disease/infection, three additional materials develop examples already published, specifying the epidemiological role of the species as assigned by the authors. Furthermore, risk factors associated with interactions between wild and domestic animals and regarding emerging infectious diseases are summarized. Finally, the wildlife surveillance measures implemented in different European countries are presented. New research areas are proposed in order to provide efficient tools to prevent the transmission of diseases between wild ungulates and livestock. PMID:21635726

FIRST REPORT OF ACUTE CHAGAS DISEASE BY VECTOR TRANSMISSION IN RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Henrique Conde SANGENIS

2015-08-01

Full Text Available SUMMARY Chagas disease (CD is an endemic anthropozoonosis from Latin America of which the main means of transmission is the contact of skin lesions or mucosa with the feces of triatomine bugs infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. In this article, we describe the first acute CD case acquired by vector transmission in the Rio de Janeiro State and confirmed by parasitological, serological and PCR tests. The patient presented acute cardiomyopathy and pericardial effusion without cardiac tamponade. Together with fever and malaise, a 3 cm wide erythematous, non-pruritic, papule compatible with a "chagoma" was found on his left wrist. This case report draws attention to the possible transmission of CD by non-domiciled native vectors in non-endemic areas. Therefore, acute CD should be included in the diagnostic workout of febrile diseases and acute myopericarditis in Rio de Janeiro.

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. Results In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries. The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Conclusions Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and

A delay differential equation model for dengue transmission with regular visits to a mosquito breeding site

Science.gov (United States)

Yaacob, Y.; Yeak, S. H.; Lim, R. S.; Soewono, E.

2015-03-01

Dengue disease has been known as one of widely transmitted vector-borne diseases which potentially affects millions of people throughout the world especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries. One of the main factors contributing in the complication of the transmission process is the mobility of people in which people may get infection in the places far from their home. Here we construct a delay differential equation model for dengue transmission in a closed population where regular visits of people to a mosquito breeding site out of their residency such as traditional market take place daily. Basic reproductive ratio of the system is obtained and depends on the ratio between the outgoing rates of susceptible human and infective human. It is shown that the increase of mobility with different variation of mobility rates may contribute to different level of basic reproductive ratio as well as different level of outbreaks.

Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A

Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-02-17

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Britton

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis Disease Activity and Transmission Using Information Technology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Sohail Ahmed

Full Text Available While formal reporting, surveillance, and response structures remain essential to protecting public health, a new generation of freely accessible, online, and real-time informatics tools for disease tracking are expanding the ability to raise earlier public awareness of emerging disease threats. The rationale for this study is to test the hypothesis that the HealthMap informatics tools can complement epidemiological data captured by traditional surveillance monitoring systems for meningitis due to Neisseria meningitides (N. meningitides by highlighting severe transmissible disease activity and outbreaks in the United States.Annual analyses of N. meningitides disease alerts captured by HealthMap were compared to epidemiological data captured by the Centers for Disease Control's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs for N. meningitides. Morbidity and mortality case reports were measured annually from 2010 to 2013 (HealthMap and 2005 to 2012 (ABCs.HealthMap N. meningitides monitoring captured 80-90% of alerts as diagnosed N. meningitides, 5-20% of alerts as suspected cases, and 5-10% of alerts as related news articles. HealthMap disease alert activity for emerging disease threats related to N. meningitides were in agreement with patterns identified historically using traditional surveillance systems. HealthMap's strength lies in its ability to provide a cumulative "snapshot" of weak signals that allows for rapid dissemination of knowledge and earlier public awareness of potential outbreak status while formal testing and confirmation for specific serotypes is ongoing by public health authorities.The underreporting of disease cases in internet-based data streaming makes inadequate any comparison to epidemiological trends illustrated by the more comprehensive ABCs network published by the Centers for Disease Control. However, the expected delays in compiling confirmatory reports by traditional surveillance systems (at the time of writing, ABCs data

The landscape configuration of zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus disease in West and Central Africa: interaction between population density and vegetation cover

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael G. Walsh

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Ebola virus disease (EVD is an emerging infectious disease of zoonotic origin that has been responsible for high mortality and significant social disruption in West and Central Africa. Zoonotic transmission of EVD requires contact between susceptible human hosts and the reservoir species for Ebolaviruses, which are believed to be fruit bats. Nevertheless, features of the landscape that may facilitate such points of contact have not yet been adequately identified. Nor have spatial dependencies between zoonotic EVD transmission and landscape structures been delineated. This investigation sought to describe the spatial relationship between zoonotic EVD transmission events, or spillovers, and population density and vegetation cover. An inhomogeneous Poisson process model was fitted to all precisely geolocated zoonotic transmissions of EVD in West and Central Africa. Population density was strongly associated with spillover; however, there was significant interaction between population density and green vegetation cover. In areas of very low population density, increasing vegetation cover was associated with a decrease in risk of zoonotic transmission, but as population density increased in a given area, increasing vegetation cover was associated with increased risk of zoonotic transmission. This study showed that the spatial dependencies of Ebolavirus spillover were associated with the distribution of population density and vegetation cover in the landscape, even after controlling for climate and altitude. While this is an observational study, and thus precludes direct causal inference, the findings do highlight areas that may be at risk for zoonotic EVD transmission based on the spatial configuration of important features of the landscape.

Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

OpenAIRE

Asher, Jason

2017-01-01

We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes ...

EpiModel: An R Package for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease over Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenness, Samuel M; Goodreau, Steven M; Morris, Martina

2018-04-01

Package EpiModel provides tools for building, simulating, and analyzing mathematical models for the population dynamics of infectious disease transmission in R. Several classes of models are included, but the unique contribution of this software package is a general stochastic framework for modeling the spread of epidemics on networks. EpiModel integrates recent advances in statistical methods for network analysis (temporal exponential random graph models) that allow the epidemic modeling to be grounded in empirical data on contacts that can spread infection. This article provides an overview of both the modeling tools built into EpiModel , designed to facilitate learning for students new to modeling, and the application programming interface for extending package EpiModel , designed to facilitate the exploration of novel research questions for advanced modelers.

Predictive modeling of coral disease distribution within a reef system.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gareth J Williams

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Diseases often display complex and distinct associations with their environment due to differences in etiology, modes of transmission between hosts, and the shifting balance between pathogen virulence and host resistance. Statistical modeling has been underutilized in coral disease research to explore the spatial patterns that result from this triad of interactions. We tested the hypotheses that: 1 coral diseases show distinct associations with multiple environmental factors, 2 incorporating interactions (synergistic collinearities among environmental variables is important when predicting coral disease spatial patterns, and 3 modeling overall coral disease prevalence (the prevalence of multiple diseases as a single proportion value will increase predictive error relative to modeling the same diseases independently. Four coral diseases: Porites growth anomalies (PorGA, Porites tissue loss (PorTL, Porites trematodiasis (PorTrem, and Montipora white syndrome (MWS, and their interactions with 17 predictor variables were modeled using boosted regression trees (BRT within a reef system in Hawaii. Each disease showed distinct associations with the predictors. Environmental predictors showing the strongest overall associations with the coral diseases were both biotic and abiotic. PorGA was optimally predicted by a negative association with turbidity, PorTL and MWS by declines in butterflyfish and juvenile parrotfish abundance respectively, and PorTrem by a modal relationship with Porites host cover. Incorporating interactions among predictor variables contributed to the predictive power of our models, particularly for PorTrem. Combining diseases (using overall disease prevalence as the model response, led to an average six-fold increase in cross-validation predictive deviance over modeling the diseases individually. We therefore recommend coral diseases to be modeled separately, unless known to have etiologies that respond in a similar manner to

Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone

2015-01-01

that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance....... of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area...

Transmission Risks of Schistosomiasis Japonica: Extraction from Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Model

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jun-Fang; Xu, Jing; Li, Shi-Zhu; Jia, Tia-Wu; Huang, Xi-Bao; Zhang, Hua-Ming; Chen, Mei; Yang, Guo-Jing; Gao, Shu-Jing; Wang, Qing-Yun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2013-01-01

Background The transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in a local setting is still poorly understood in the lake regions of the People's Republic of China (P. R. China), and its transmission patterns are closely related to human, social and economic factors. Methodology/Principal Findings We aimed to apply the integrated approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression model in assessment of transmission risks of Schistosoma japonicum with epidemiological data collected from 2339 villagers from 1247 households in six villages of Jiangling County, P.R. China. By using the back-propagation (BP) of the ANN model, 16 factors out of 27 factors were screened, and the top five factors ranked by the absolute value of mean impact value (MIV) were mainly related to human behavior, i.e. integration of water contact history and infection history, family with past infection, history of water contact, infection history, and infection times. The top five factors screened by the logistic regression model were mainly related to the social economics, i.e. village level, economic conditions of family, age group, education level, and infection times. The risk of human infection with S. japonicum is higher in the population who are at age 15 or younger, or with lower education, or with the higher infection rate of the village, or with poor family, and in the population with more than one time to be infected. Conclusion/Significance Both BP artificial neural network and logistic regression model established in a small scale suggested that individual behavior and socioeconomic status are the most important risk factors in the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica. It was reviewed that the young population (≤15) in higher-risk areas was the main target to be intervened for the disease transmission control. PMID:23556015

Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

2010-01-15

Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

2010-01-01

Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

Training the Next Generation of Scientists: System Dynamics Modeling of Chagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis) transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Goff, P.; Hulse, A.; Harder, H. R.; Pierce, L. A.; Rizzo, D.; Hanley, J.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Justi, S.; Monroy, C.

2015-12-01

A computational simulation has been designed as an investigative case study by high school students to introduce system dynamics modeling into high school curriculum. This case study approach leads users through the forensics necessary to diagnose an unknown disease in a Central American village. This disease, Chagas, is endemic to 21 Latin American countries. The CDC estimates that of the 110 million people living in areas with the disease, 8 million are infected, with as many as 300,000 US cases. Chagas is caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, and is spread via blood feeding insect (vectors), that feed on vertebrates and live in crevasses in the walls and roofs of adobe homes. One-third of the infected people will develop chronic Chagas who are asymptomatic for years before their heart or GI tract become enlarged resulting in death. The case study has three parts. Students play the role of WHO field investigators and work collaboratively to: 1) use genetics to identify the host(s) and vector of the disease 2) use a STELLA™ SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) system dynamics model to study Chagas at the village scale and 3) develop management strategies. The simulations identify mitigation strategies known as Ecohealth Interventions (e.g., home improvements using local materials) to help stakeholders test and compare multiple optima. High school students collaborated with researchers from the University of Vermont, Loyola University and Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala, working in labs, interviewing researchers, and incorporating mulitple field data as part of a NSF-funded multiyear grant. The model displays stable equilibria of hosts, vectors, and disease-states. Sensitivity analyses show measures of household condition and presence of vertebrates were significant leverage points, supporting other findings by the University research team. The village-scale model explores multiple solutions to disease mitigation for the purpose of producing

The role of remote sensing and GIS for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Palaniyandi, M

2012-12-01

There have been several attempts made to the appreciation of remote sensing and GIS for the study of vectors, biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases with respect to space and time. This study was made for reviewing and appraising the potential use of remote sensing and GIS applications for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission. The nature of the presence and the abundance of vectors and vector-borne diseases, disease infection and the disease transmission are not ubiquitous and are confined with geographical, environmental and climatic factors, and are localized. The presence of vectors and vector-borne diseases is most complex in nature, however, it is confined and fueled by the geographical, climatic and environmental factors including man-made factors. The usefulness of the present day availability of the information derived from the satellite data including vegetation indices of canopy cover and its density, soil types, soil moisture, soil texture, soil depth, etc. is integrating the information in the expert GIS engine for the spatial analysis of other geoclimatic and geoenvironmental variables. The present study gives the detailed information on the classical studies of the past and present, and the future role of remote sensing and GIS for the vector-borne diseases control. The ecological modeling directly gives us the relevant information to understand the spatial variation of the vector biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases in association with geoclimatic and the environmental variables. The probability map of the geographical distribution and seasonal variations of horizontal and vertical distribution of vector abundance and its association with vector -borne diseases can be obtained with low cost remote sensing and GIS tool with reliable data and speed.

Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Elizabeth C; Kelly, Michael R; Ochocki, Brad M; Akinwumi, Segun M; Hamre, Karen E S; Tien, Joseph H; Eisenberg, Marisa C

2017-05-07

Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and a range of other features. These differences can affect model dynamics, with different models potentially yielding different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of mathematical models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess model distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether inferences from the model are robust to realistic variations in model structure). In this paper, we examined the effects of uncertainty in model structure in the context of epidemic cholera, testing a range of models with differences in transmission and loss of immunity structure, based on known features of cholera epidemiology. We fit these models to simulated epidemic and long-term data, as well as data from the 2006 Angola epidemic. We evaluated model distinguishability based on fit to data, and whether the parameter values, model behavior, and forecasting ability can accurately be inferred from incidence data. In general, all models were able to successfully fit to all data sets, both real and simulated, regardless of whether the model generating the simulated data matched the fitted model. However, in the long-term data, the best model fits were achieved when the loss of immunity structures matched those of the model that simulated the data. Two parameters, one representing person-to-person transmission and the other representing the reporting rate, were accurately estimated across all models, while the remaining parameters showed broad variation across the different models and data sets. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was often poorly estimated even using the correct model, due to practical unidentifiability issues in the waterborne transmission pathway which were consistent across all models. Forecasting

Malaria's Missing Number: Calculating the Human Component of R0 by a Within-Host Mechanistic Model of Plasmodium falciparum Infection and Transmission

OpenAIRE

Johnston, Geoffrey L.; Smith, David L.; Fidock, David A.

2013-01-01

Human infection by malarial parasites of the genus Plasmodium begins with the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Current estimates place malaria mortality at over 650,000 individuals each year, mostly in African children. Efforts to reduce disease burden can benefit from the development of mathematical models of disease transmission. To date, however, comprehensive modeling of the parameters defining human infectivity to mosquitoes has remained elusive. Here, we describe a mechanistic wi...

The corallivorous invertebrate Drupella aids in transmission of brown band disease on the Great Barrier Reef

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolet, K. J.; Hoogenboom, M. O.; Gardiner, N. M.; Pratchett, M. S.; Willis, B. L.

2013-06-01

Brown band disease (BrB) is an increasingly prevalent coral disease in the Indo-Pacific, but although the macroscopic signs of BrB have been associated with the ciliate Philaster guamensis, many aspects of its ecology remain unknown, particularly how the disease is transmitted among coral colonies. The aim of this study was to assess biotic factors affecting BrB transmission, explicitly testing whether corallivorous species contribute to disease spread. Several fish species were observed feeding on diseased tissue in the field, but did not influence either the progression or transmission rates of BrB on coral colonies in situ. In aquarium-based experiments, the butterflyfish Chaetodon aureofasciatus neither aided nor hindered the transmission of BrB from infected to uninfected corals. In contrast, the coral-feeding gastropod Drupella sp. was a highly effective vector of BrB, infecting more than 40 % of experimental colonies. This study also demonstrated the importance of injury in facilitating BrB infection, supporting the hypothesis that the BrB pathogen invades compromised coral tissue. In conclusion, disturbances and corallivorous activities that injure live corals are likely to contribute to increased occurrence of BrB provided that feeding scars create entry wounds sufficiently extensive to facilitate infection. These findings increase the understanding of the ecology of BrB, enabling better predictions of the prevalence and severity of this disease, and informing strategies for managing the impact of BrB on coral reefs.

A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julien Riou

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The recent global dissemination of Chikungunya and Zika has fostered public health concern worldwide. To better understand the drivers of transmission of these two arboviral diseases, we propose a joint analysis of Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the same territories, taking into account the common epidemiological features of the epidemics: transmitted by the same vector, in the same environments, and observed by the same surveillance systems. We analyse eighteen outbreaks in French Polynesia and the French West Indies using a hierarchical time-dependent SIR model accounting for the effect of virus, location and weather on transmission, and based on a disease specific serial interval. We show that Chikungunya and Zika have similar transmission potential in the same territories (transmissibility ratio between Zika and Chikungunya of 1.04 [95% credible interval: 0.97; 1.13], but that detection and reporting rates were different (around 19% for Zika and 40% for Chikungunya. Temperature variations between 22 °C and 29 °C did not alter transmission, but increased precipitation showed a dual effect, first reducing transmission after a two-week delay, then increasing it around five weeks later. The present study provides valuable information for risk assessment and introduces a modelling framework for the comparative analysis of arboviral infections that can be extended to other viruses and territories.

The Dynamics of an HIV/AIDS Model with Screened Disease Carriers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. D. Hove-Musekwa

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The presence of carriers usually complicates the dynamics and prevention of a disease. They are not recognized as disease cases themselves unless they are screened and they usually spread the infection without them being aware. We argue that this has been one of the major causes of the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. We propose, in this paper, a model for the heterogeneous transmission of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the presence of disease carriers. The model allows us to assess the role of screening, as an intervention program that can slow the epidemic. A threshold value ψ*, for the screening rate is obtained. It is shown numerically that if 80% or more of the carrier population is screened, the epidemic can be contained. The qualitative analysis is done in terms of the model reproduction number R. The model has two equilibria, the disease free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium. The disease free equilibrium is globally stable of R  1. A detailed discussion of the model reproduction number is given and numerical simulations are done to show the role of some of the important model parameters.

A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

2016-04-01

Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus

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Xiao, Yanyu; Beier, John C.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Cosner, Chris; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ruan, Shigui

2015-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held).

Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

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Helen C Johnson

Full Text Available Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58 are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45 is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.

Transmission of chronic wasting disease identifies a prion strain causing cachexia and heart infection in hamsters.

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Richard A Bessen

Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is an emerging prion disease of free-ranging and captive cervids in North America. In this study we established a rodent model for CWD in Syrian golden hamsters that resemble key features of the disease in cervids including cachexia and infection of cardiac muscle. Following one to three serial passages of CWD from white-tailed deer into transgenic mice expressing the hamster prion protein gene, CWD was subsequently passaged into Syrian golden hamsters. In one passage line there were preclinical changes in locomotor activity and a loss of body mass prior to onset of subtle neurological symptoms around 340 days. The clinical symptoms included a prominent wasting disease, similar to cachexia, with a prolonged duration. Other features of CWD in hamsters that were similar to cervid CWD included the brain distribution of the disease-specific isoform of the prion protein, PrP(Sc, prion infection of the central and peripheral neuroendocrine system, and PrP(Sc deposition in cardiac muscle. There was also prominent PrP(Sc deposition in the nasal mucosa on the edge of the olfactory sensory epithelium with the lumen of the nasal airway that could have implications for CWD shedding into nasal secretions and disease transmission. Since the mechanism of wasting disease in prion diseases is unknown this hamster CWD model could provide a means to investigate the physiological basis of cachexia, which we propose is due to a prion-induced endocrinopathy. This prion disease phenotype has not been described in hamsters and we designate it as the 'wasting' or WST strain of hamster CWD.

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

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Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

2018-05-01

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies.

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Jamie T Griffin

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools.We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS, mass screening and treatment (MSAT, and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs, vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year], LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (90% or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels.Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting, provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through

The effect of neighbourhood definitions on spatio-temporal models of disease outbreaks: Separation distance versus range overlap.

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Laffan, Shawn W; Wang, Zhaoyuan; Ward, Michael P

2011-12-01

The definition of the spatial relatedness between infectious and susceptible animal groups is a fundamental component of spatio-temporal modelling of disease outbreaks. A common neighbourhood definition for disease spread in wild and feral animal populations is the distance between the centroids of neighbouring group home ranges. This distance can be used to define neighbourhood interactions, and also to describe the probability of successful disease transmission. Key limitations of this approach are (1) that a susceptible neighbour of an infectious group with an overlapping home range - but whose centroid lies outside the home range of an infectious group - will not be considered for disease transmission, and (2) the degree of overlap between the home ranges is not taken into account for those groups with centroids inside the infectious home range. We assessed the impact of both distance-based and range overlap methods of disease transmission on model-predicted disease spread. Range overlap was calculated using home ranges modelled as circles. We used the Sirca geographic automata model, with the population data from a nine-county study area in Texas that we have previously described. For each method we applied 100 model repetitions, each of 100 time steps, to 30 index locations. The results show that the rate of disease spread for the range-overlap method is clearly less than the distance-based method, with median outbreaks modelled using the latter being 1.4-1.45 times larger. However, the two methods show similar overall trends in the area infected, and the range-overlap median (48 and 120 for cattle and pigs, respectively) falls within the 5th-95th percentile range of the distance-based method (0-96 and 0-252 for cattle and pigs, respectively). These differences can be attributed to the calculation of the interaction probabilities in the two methods, with overlap weights generally resulting in lower interaction probabilities. The definition of spatial

Theoretical vibro-acoustic modeling of acoustic noise transmission through aircraft windows

Science.gov (United States)

Aloufi, Badr; Behdinan, Kamran; Zu, Jean

2016-06-01

In this paper, a fully vibro-acoustic model for sound transmission across a multi-pane aircraft window is developed. The proposed model is efficiently applied for a set of window models to perform extensive theoretical parametric studies. The studied window configurations generally simulate the passenger window designs of modern aircraft classes which have an exterior multi-Plexiglas pane, an interior single acrylic glass pane and a dimmable glass ("smart" glass), all separated by thin air cavities. The sound transmission loss (STL) characteristics of three different models, triple-, quadruple- and quintuple-paned windows identical in size and surface density, are analyzed for improving the acoustic insulation performances. Typical results describing the influence of several system parameters, such as the thicknesses, number and spacing of the window panes, on the transmission loss are then investigated. In addition, a comparison study is carried out to evaluate the acoustic reduction capability of each window model. The STL results show that the higher frequencies sound transmission loss performance can be improved by increasing the number of window panels, however, the low frequency performance is decreased, particularly at the mass-spring resonances.

Mathematical model of transmission network static state estimation

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Ivanov Aleksandar

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper the characteristics and capabilities of the power transmission network static state estimator are presented. The solving process of the mathematical model containing the measurement errors and their processing is developed. To evaluate difference between the general model of state estimation and the fast decoupled state estimation model, the both models are applied to an example, and so derived results are compared.

Modeling two strains of disease via aggregate-level infectivity curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Romanescu, Razvan; Deardon, Rob

2016-04-01

Well formulated models of disease spread, and efficient methods to fit them to observed data, are powerful tools for aiding the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. Our project considers the problem of the simultaneous spread of two related strains of disease in a context where spatial location is the key driver of disease spread. We start our modeling work with the individual level models (ILMs) of disease transmission, and extend these models to accommodate the competing spread of the pathogens in a two-tier hierarchical population (whose levels we refer to as 'farm' and 'animal'). The postulated interference mechanism between the two strains is a period of cross-immunity following infection. We also present a framework for speeding up the computationally intensive process of fitting the ILM to data, typically done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a Bayesian framework, by turning the inference into a two-stage process. First, we approximate the number of animals infected on a farm over time by infectivity curves. These curves are fit to data sampled from farms, using maximum likelihood estimation, then, conditional on the fitted curves, Bayesian MCMC inference proceeds for the remaining parameters. Finally, we use posterior predictive distributions of salient epidemic summary statistics, in order to assess the model fitted.

A controlled human malaria infection model enabling evaluation of transmission-blocking interventions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Collins, K.A.; Wang, C.Y.; Adams, M.; Mitchell, H.; Rampton, M.; Elliott, S.; Reuling, I.J.; Bousema, T.; Sauerwein, R.; Chalon, S.; Mohrle, J.J.; McCarthy, J.S.

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Drugs and vaccines that can interrupt the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum will be important for malaria control and elimination. However, models for early clinical evaluation of candidate transmission-blocking interventions are currently unavailable. Here, we describe a new model

Risk of equine infectious disease transmission by non-race horse movements in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Nishiguchi, Akiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

2010-07-01

For determining surveillance programs or infectious disease countermeasures, risk evaluation approaches have been recently undertaken in the field of animal health. In the present study, to help establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases, we evaluated the potential risk of equine infectious disease transmission in non-race horses from the viewpoints of horse movements and health management practices by conducting a survey of non-race horse holdings. From the survey, the non-race horse population was classified into the following five sectors based on their purposes: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, fattening sector and others. Our survey results showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had the largest population sizes, and movements between and within these sectors occurred quite frequently, while there was little movement in the other sectors. Qualitative evaluation showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had relatively high risks of equine infectious disease transmission through horse movements. Therefore, it would be effective to concentrate on these two sectors when implementing surveillance or preventative measures. Special priority should be given to the private owner sector because this sector has not implemented inspection and vaccination well compared with the equestrian sector, which possesses a high compliance rate for these practices. This qualitative risk evaluation focused on horse movements and health management practices could provide a basis for further risk evaluation to establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases.

The fusion rate in the transmission resonance model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaendel, M.

1992-01-01

Resonant transmission of deuterons through a chain of target deuterons in a metal matrix has been suggested as an explanation for the cold fusion phenomena. In this paper the fusion rate in such transmission resonance models is estimated, and the basic physical constraints are discussed. The dominating contribution to the fusion yield is found to come from metastable states. The fusion rate is well described by the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin approximation and appears to be much too small to explain the experimental anomalies

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

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Henry de-Graft Acquah

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

A new mutation for Huntington disease following maternal transmission of an intermediate allele

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Semaka, Alicia; Kay, Chris; Belfroid, René D. M.; Bijlsma, Emilia K.; Losekoot, Monique; van Langen, Irene M.; van Maarle, Merel C.; Oosterloo, Mayke; Hayden, Michael R.; van Belzen, Martine J.

2015-01-01

New mutations for Huntington disease (HD) originate from CAG repeat expansion of intermediate alleles (27-35 CAG). Expansions of such alleles into the pathological range (≥ 36 CAG) have been exclusively observed in paternal transmission. We report the occurrence of a new mutation that defies the

Optimal control of diarrhea transmission in a flood evacuation zone

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Erwina, N.; Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.

2014-03-01

Evacuation of residents and diarrhea disease outbreak in evacuation zone have become serious problem that frequently happened during flood periods. Limited clean water supply and infrastructure in evacuation zone contribute to a critical spread of diarrhea. Transmission of diarrhea disease can be reduced by controlling clean water supply and treating diarrhea patients properly. These treatments require significant amount of budget, which may not be fulfilled in the fields. In his paper, transmission of diarrhea disease in evacuation zone using SIRS model is presented as control optimum problem with clean water supply and rate of treated patients as input controls. Existence and stability of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are investigated analytically for constant input controls. Optimum clean water supply and rate of treatment are found using optimum control technique. Optimal results for transmission of diarrhea and the corresponding controls during the period of observation are simulated numerically. The optimum result shows that transmission of diarrhea disease can be controlled with proper combination of water supply and rate of treatment within allowable budget.

An individual-based model of transmission of resistant bacteria in a veterinary teaching hospital.

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Neeraj Suthar

Full Text Available Veterinary nosocomial infections caused by antibiotic resistant bacteria cause increased morbidity, higher cost and length of treatment and increased zoonotic risk because of the difficulty in treating them. In this study, an individual-based model was developed to investigate the effects of movements of canine patients among ten areas (transmission points within a veterinary teaching hospital, and the effects of these movements on transmission of antibiotic susceptible and resistant pathogens. The model simulates contamination of transmission points, healthcare workers, and patients as well as the effects of decontamination of transmission points, disinfection of healthcare workers, and antibiotic treatments of canine patients. The model was parameterized using data obtained from hospital records, information obtained by interviews with hospital staff, and the published literature. The model suggested that transmission resulting from contact with healthcare workers was common, and that certain transmission points (housing wards, diagnostics room, and the intensive care unit presented higher risk for transmission than others (lobby and surgery. Sensitivity analyses using a range of parameter values demonstrated that the risk of acquisition of colonization by resistant pathogens decreased with shorter patient hospital stays (P<0.0001, more frequent decontamination of transmission points and disinfection of healthcare workers (P<0.0001 and better compliance of healthcare workers with hygiene practices (P<0.0001. More frequent decontamination of heavily trafficked transmission points was especially effective at reducing transmission of the model pathogen.

A comprehensive computational model of sound transmission through the porcine lung.

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Dai, Zoujun; Peng, Ying; Henry, Brian M; Mansy, Hansen A; Sandler, Richard H; Royston, Thomas J

2014-09-01

A comprehensive computational simulation model of sound transmission through the porcine lung is introduced and experimentally evaluated. This "subject-specific" model utilizes parenchymal and major airway geometry derived from x-ray CT images. The lung parenchyma is modeled as a poroviscoelastic material using Biot theory. A finite element (FE) mesh of the lung that includes airway detail is created and used in comsol FE software to simulate the vibroacoustic response of the lung to sound input at the trachea. The FE simulation model is validated by comparing simulation results to experimental measurements using scanning laser Doppler vibrometry on the surface of an excised, preserved lung. The FE model can also be used to calculate and visualize vibroacoustic pressure and motion inside the lung and its airways caused by the acoustic input. The effect of diffuse lung fibrosis and of a local tumor on the lung acoustic response is simulated and visualized using the FE model. In the future, this type of visualization can be compared and matched with experimentally obtained elastographic images to better quantify regional lung material properties to noninvasively diagnose and stage disease and response to treatment.

The Influence of Spatial Configuration of Residential Area and Vector Populations on Dengue Incidence Patterns in an Individual-Level Transmission Model.

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Kang, Jeon-Young; Aldstadt, Jared

2017-07-15

Dengue is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical countries. Many individual-level simulation models have been developed to test hypotheses about dengue virus transmission. Often these efforts assume that human host and mosquito vector populations are randomly or uniformly distributed in the environment. Although, the movement of mosquitoes is affected by spatial configuration of buildings and mosquito populations are highly clustered in key buildings, little research has focused on the influence of the local built environment in dengue transmission models. We developed an agent-based model of dengue transmission in a village setting to test the importance of using realistic environments in individual-level models of dengue transmission. The results from one-way ANOVA analysis of simulations indicated that the differences between scenarios in terms of infection rates as well as serotype-specific dominance are statistically significant. Specifically, the infection rates in scenarios of a realistic environment are more variable than those of a synthetic spatial configuration. With respect to dengue serotype-specific cases, we found that a single dengue serotype is more often dominant in realistic environments than in synthetic environments. An agent-based approach allows a fine-scaled analysis of simulated dengue incidence patterns. The results provide a better understanding of the influence of spatial heterogeneity on dengue transmission at a local scale.

Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel [Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 61300, Brno (Czech Republic); Bednářová, Petra [Institute of Technology and Business, Okružní 517/10, 370 01, České Budějovice (Czech Republic)

2015-03-10

The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel; Bednářová, Petra

2015-01-01

The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches

Can antibodies against flies alter malaria transmission in birds by changing vector behavior?

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Ghosh, Suma; Waite, Jessica L; Clayton, Dale H; Adler, Frederick R

2014-10-07

Transmission of insect-borne diseases is shaped by the interactions among parasites, vectors, and hosts. Any factor that alters movement of infected vectors from infected to uninfeced hosts will in turn alter pathogen spread. In this paper, we study one such pathogen-vector-host system, avian malaria in pigeons transmitted by fly ectoparasites, where both two-way and three-way interactions play a key role in shaping disease spread. Bird immune defenses against flies can decrease malaria prevalence by reducing fly residence time on infected birds or increase disease prevalence by enhancing fly movement and thus infection transmission. We develop a mathematical model that illustrates how these changes in vector behavior influence pathogen transmission and show that malaria prevalence is maximized at an intermediate level of defense avoidance by the flies. Understanding how host immune defenses indirectly alter disease transmission by influencing vector behavior has implications for reducing the transmission of human malaria and other vectored pathogens. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code%Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

呼义翔; 雷天时; 吴撼宇; 郭宁; 韩娟娟; 邱爱慈; 王亮平; 黄涛; 丛培天; 张信军; 李岩; 曾正中; 孙铁平

2011-01-01

The transmission-line-circuit model of the Z accelerator, developed originally by W. A. STYGAR, P. A. CORCORAN, et al., is revised. The revised model uses different calculations for the electron loss and flow impedance in the magnetically insulated transmission line system of the Z accelerator before and after magnetic insulation is established. By including electron pressure and zero electric field at the cathode, a closed set of equations is obtained at each time step, and dynamic shunt resistance （used to represent any electron loss to the anode） and flow impedance are solved, which have been incorporated into the transmission line code for simulations of the vacuum section in the Z accelerator. Finally, the results are discussed in comparison with earlier findings to show the effectiveness and limitations of the model.

Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

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Cross, Paul C.; Maichak, Eric J.; Rogerson, Jared D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Jones, Jennifer D; Heisey, Dennis M.; Edwards, William H.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

2015-01-01

Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the

Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

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Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium E0, when the effective reproduction number RVT≤1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium E1, when RVT>1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at RVT=1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education. Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.

Altered vector competence in an experimental mosquito-mouse transmission model of Zika infection.

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Ryuta Uraki

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Few animal models of Zika virus (ZIKV infection have incorporated arthropod-borne transmission. Here, we establish an Aedes aegypti mosquito model of ZIKV infection of mice, and demonstrate altered vector competency among three strains, (Orlando, ORL, Ho Chi Minh, HCM, and Patilas, PAT. All strains acquired ZIKV in their midguts after a blood meal from infected mice, but ZIKV transmission only occurred in mice fed upon by HCM, and to a lesser extent PAT, but not ORL, mosquitoes. This defect in transmission from ORL or PAT mosquitoes was overcome by intrathoracic injection of ZIKV into mosquito. Genetic analysis revealed significant diversity among these strains, suggesting a genetic basis for differences in ability for mosquito strains to transmit ZIKV. The intrathoracic injection mosquito-mouse transmission model is critical to understanding the influence of mosquitoes on ZIKV transmission, infectivity and pathogenesis in the vertebrate host, and represents a natural transmission route for testing vaccines and therapeutics.

Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Taikjin; Lee, Hyuk-jae

2014-01-01

There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics

Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Hyuk-jae; Lee, Taikjin

2014-03-01

There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics.

Grounding modelling for transient overvoltage simulation in electric power transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno O, German; Valencia V, Jaime A; Villada, Fernando

1992-01-01

Grounding plays an important role in transmission line outages and consequently on electric energy transmission quality indexes. Fundamentals of an accurate modelling for transient behaviour analysis, particularly for the response of transmission lines to lightning, are presented. Also, a method to take into account the electromagnetic propagation guided by the grounding electrodes and finally to assess the grounding impedance in order to simulate the transmission line behaviour under lightning is presented. Analysis of impedance behaviour for diverse configurations and simulation results of over voltages on a real 220 kV line are presented to illustrate the capabilities of the method and of the computational program developed

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. Subsequent chapters of this report provide: an overview of NGTDM; a description of the interface between the NEMS and NGTDM; an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM; the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module; the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module; the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module; the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module; and a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs.

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Huang, Tang-Luen; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Bansal, Shweta; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Vespignani, Alessandro; Viboud, Cécile

2016-12-01

We devote a special issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases to review the recent advances of big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments and mobility. We consider a broad definition of big data for public health, one encompassing patient information gathered from high-volume electronic health records and participatory surveillance systems, as well as mining of digital traces such as social media, Internet searches, and cell-phone logs. We introduce nine independent contributions to this special issue and highlight several cross-cutting areas that require further research, including representativeness, biases, volatility, and validation, and the need for robust statistical and hypotheses-driven analyses. Overall, we are optimistic that the big-data revolution will vastly improve the granularity and timeliness of available epidemiological information, with hybrid systems augmenting rather than supplanting traditional surveillance systems, and better prospects for accurate infectious diseases models and forecasts. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Modeling the role of public transportation in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Jason R; Morrow, Carl; Wood, Robin

2013-03-15

Current tuberculosis notification rates in South Africa are among the highest ever recorded. Although the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic has been a critical factor, the density of respiratory contacts in high-risk environments may be an important and underappreciated driver. Using a modified Wells-Riley model for airborne disease transmission, we estimated the risk of tuberculosis transmission on 3 modes of public transit (minibus taxis, buses, and trains) in Cape Town, South Africa, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a natural tracer gas to evaluate air exchange. Carbon dioxide measurements were performed between October and December of 2011. Environmental risk, reflected in the rebreathed fraction of air, was highest in minibus taxis and lowest in trains; however, the average number of passengers sharing an indoor space was highest in trains and lowest in minibus taxis. Among daily commuters, the annual risk of tuberculosis infection was projected to be 3.5%-5.0% and was highest among minibus taxi commuters. Assuming a duration of infectiousness of 1 year, the basic reproductive number attributable to transportation was more than 1 in all 3 modes of transportation. Given its poor ventilation and high respiratory contact rates, public transportation may play a critical role in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South African cities.

Drivers of Tuberculosis Transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathema, Barun; Andrews, Jason R; Cohen, Ted; Borgdorff, Martien W; Behr, Marcel; Glynn, Judith R; Rustomjee, Roxana; Silk, Benjamin J; Wood, Robin

2017-11-03

Measuring tuberculosis transmission is exceedingly difficult, given the remarkable variability in the timing of clinical disease after Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection; incident disease can result from either a recent (ie, weeks to months) or a remote (ie, several years to decades) infection event. Although we cannot identify with certainty the timing and location of tuberculosis transmission for individuals, approaches for estimating the individual probability of recent transmission and for estimating the fraction of tuberculosis cases due to recent transmission in populations have been developed. Data used to estimate the probable burden of recent transmission include tuberculosis case notifications in young children and trends in tuberculin skin test and interferon γ-release assays. More recently, M. tuberculosis whole-genome sequencing has been used to estimate population levels of recent transmission, identify the distribution of specific strains within communities, and decipher chains of transmission among culture-positive tuberculosis cases. The factors that drive the transmission of tuberculosis in communities depend on the burden of prevalent tuberculosis; the ways in which individuals live, work, and interact (eg, congregate settings); and the capacity of healthcare and public health systems to identify and effectively treat individuals with infectious forms of tuberculosis. Here we provide an overview of these factors, describe tools for measurement of ongoing transmission, and highlight knowledge gaps that must be addressed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Transmission and epidemiology of zoonotic protozoal diseases of companion animals.

Science.gov (United States)

Esch, Kevin J; Petersen, Christine A

2013-01-01

Over 77 million dogs and 93 million cats share our households in the United States. Multiple studies have demonstrated the importance of pets in their owners' physical and mental health. Given the large number of companion animals in the United States and the proximity and bond of these animals with their owners, understanding and preventing the diseases that these companions bring with them are of paramount importance. Zoonotic protozoal parasites, including toxoplasmosis, Chagas' disease, babesiosis, giardiasis, and leishmaniasis, can cause insidious infections, with asymptomatic animals being capable of transmitting disease. Giardia and Toxoplasma gondii, endemic to the United States, have high prevalences in companion animals. Leishmania and Trypanosoma cruzi are found regionally within the United States. These diseases have lower prevalences but are significant sources of human disease globally and are expanding their companion animal distribution. Thankfully, healthy individuals in the United States are protected by intact immune systems and bolstered by good nutrition, sanitation, and hygiene. Immunocompromised individuals, including the growing number of obese and/or diabetic people, are at a much higher risk of developing zoonoses. Awareness of these often neglected diseases in all health communities is important for protecting pets and owners. To provide this awareness, this review is focused on zoonotic protozoal mechanisms of virulence, epidemiology, and the transmission of pathogens of consequence to pet owners in the United States.

Assessing the impact of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics

OpenAIRE

C.P. Bhunu

2015-01-01

Care for the people living with HIV/AIDS is more than the provision of antiretroviral therapy. The effects of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission are captured through a mathematical model. The mathematical model is rigorously analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. Results from the analysis of the reproduction number suggests that homelessness enhances both HIV transmission and progression to the AIDS stage. T...

Assessing the impact of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.P. Bhunu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Care for the people living with HIV/AIDS is more than the provision of antiretroviral therapy. The effects of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission are captured through a mathematical model. The mathematical model is rigorously analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. Results from the analysis of the reproduction number suggests that homelessness enhances both HIV transmission and progression to the AIDS stage. This is further supported by numerical simulations which show that some elements of homelessness (lack of entertainment enhances HIV/AIDS transmission.

Chains of transmission and control of Ebola Virus Disease in Conakry, Guinea in 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Faye, Ousmane; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Heleze, Emmanuel; Faye, Oumar; Loucoubar, Cheikh; Magassouba, N’Faly; Soropogui, Barré; Keita, Sakoba; Gakou, Tata; Bah, El Hadji Ibrahima; Koivogui, Lamine; Sall, Amadou Alpha; Cauchemez, Simon

2015-01-01

Background An Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic of unprecedented magnitude is ongoing in West Africa, affecting for the first time large urban centers like Conakry, the capital of Guinea. Methods Interviews of EVD patients, relatives and neighbors and laboratory databases were used to reconstruct EVD chains of transmission in Conakry, from March to August 2014. Findings Out of 193 confirmed and probable EVD cases reported in Conakry, Boffa and Télimélé, 152 (79%) were positioned in the chains of transmission. In March, non-Health Care Workers cases infected on average 2.3 (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) persons, breaking down into 1.4 (95% CI: 0.9, 2.2) persons in the community, 0.4 (95% CI: 0.1, 0.9) in the hospital and 0.5 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.0) at funerals. Following implementation of infection control in April, the reproduction number in the hospital and at funerals reduced below 0.1. In the community, the reproduction number, which was positively correlated with patients viremia, dropped by 50% for hospitalized cases but remained unchanged for those not hospitalized. Hospital and funeral transmission represented 35% (7/20) and 15% (3/20) of all transmissions in March; but only 9% (11/128) and 4% (5/128) from April onward. Overall, 82% (119/145) of transmission occurred in the community and 72% (105/145) between family members. Simulations showed that a 10% increase in hospitalizations could have reduced the length of chains by 26% (95% CI: 4%, 45%). Interpretation Monitoring chains of transmission is critical to evaluate and optimize local control strategies for EVD. In Conakry, interventions had the potential to stop the epidemic but reintroductions of the disease and lack of cooperation of a small number of families led to prolonged low-level spread, highlighting challenges of EVD control in large urban centers. Funding Labex IBEID, Reacting, PREDEMICS, NIGMS MIDAS initiative, Institut Pasteur de Dakar. PMID:25619149

Experimental oral transmission of chronic wasting disease to reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gordon B Mitchell

Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids, remains prevalent in North American elk, white-tailed deer and mule deer. A natural case of CWD in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus has not been reported despite potential habitat overlap with CWD-infected deer or elk herds. This study investigates the experimental transmission of CWD from elk or white-tailed deer to reindeer by the oral route of inoculation. Ante-mortem testing of the three reindeer exposed to CWD from white-tailed deer identified the accumulation of pathological PrP (PrP(CWD in the recto-anal mucosa associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT of two reindeer at 13.4 months post-inoculation. Terminal CWD occurred in the two RAMALT-positive reindeer at 18.5 and 20 months post-inoculation while one other reindeer in the white-tailed deer CWD inoculum group and none of the 3 reindeer exposed to elk CWD developed disease. Tissue distribution analysis of PrP(CWD in CWD-affected reindeer revealed widespread deposition in central and peripheral nervous systems, lymphoreticular tissues, the gastrointestinal tract, neuroendocrine tissues and cardiac muscle. Analysis of prion protein gene (PRNP sequences in the 6 reindeer identified polymorphisms at residues 2 (V/M, 129 (G/S, 138 (S/N and 169 (V/M. These findings demonstrate that (i a sub-population of reindeer are susceptible to CWD by oral inoculation implicating the potential for transmission to other Rangifer species, and (ii certain reindeer PRNP polymorphisms may be protective against CWD infection.

A few bad apples: a model of disease influenced agent behaviour in a heterogeneous contact environment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Enright

Full Text Available For diseases that infect humans or livestock, transmission dynamics are at least partially dependent on human activity and therefore human behaviour. However, the impact of human behaviour on disease transmission is relatively understudied, especially in the context of heterogeneous contact structures such as described by a social network. Here, we use a strategic game, coupled with a simple disease model, to investigate how strategic agent choices impact the spread of disease over a contact network. Using beliefs that are based on disease status and that build up over time, agents choose actions that stochastically determine disease spread on the network. An agent's disease status is therefore a function of both his own and his neighbours actions. The effect of disease on agents is modelled by a heterogeneous payoff structure. We find that the combination of network shape and distribution of payoffs has a non-trivial impact on disease prevalence, even if the mean payoff remains the same. An important scenario occurs when a small percentage (called noncooperators have little incentive to avoid disease. For diseases that are easily acquired when taking a risk, then even when good behavior can lead to disease eradication, a small increase in the percentage of noncooperators (less than 5% can yield a large (up to 25% increase in prevalence.

Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy and Meat Safety

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Hester J. T.; Knight, Richard S. G.

Prion diseases or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) comprise a wide-ranging group of neurodegenerative diseases found in animals and humans. They have diverse causes and geographical distributions, but have similar pathological features, transmissibility and, are ultimately, fatal. Central to all TSEs is the presence of an abnormal form of a normal host protein, namely the prion protein. Because of their potential transmissibility, these diseases have wide public health ramifications.

Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera) and vector transmission of Chagas disease

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsey, Janine M; Peterson, A Townsend; Carmona-Castro, Oscar; Moo-Llanes, David A; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Butrick, Morgan; Tun-Ku, Ezequiel; de la Cruz-Félix, Keynes; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N

2015-01-01

Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species, Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzi transmission. PMID:25993505

Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera and vector transmission of Chagas disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janine M Ramsey

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species, Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzi transmission.

Some Advances in the Circuit Modeling of Extraordinary Optical Transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Medina

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of extraordinary optical transmission (EOT through electrically small holes perforated on opaque metal screens has been a hot topic in the optics community for more than one decade. This experimentally observed frequency-selective enhanced transmission of electromagnetic power through holes, for which classical Bethe's theory predicts very poor transmission, later attracted the attention of engineers working on microwave engineering or applied electromagnetics. Extraordinary transmission was first linked to the plasma-like behavior of metals at optical frequencies. However, the primary role played by the periodicity of the distribution of holes was soon made evident, in such a way that extraordinary transmission was disconnected from the particular behavior of metals at optical frequencies. Indeed, the same phenomenon has been observed in the microwave and millimeter wave regime, for instance. Nowadays, the most commonly accepted theory explains EOT in terms of the interaction of the impinging plane wave with the surface plasmon-polariton-Bloch waves (SPP-Bloch supported by the periodically perforated plate. The authors of this paper have recently proposed an alternative model whose details will be briefly summarized here. A parametric study of the predictions of the model and some new potential extensions will be reported to provide additional insight.

A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivzivadze, O.; Zivzivadze, L.

2009-01-01

Difficulties associated with the development of calculation models are analyzed, and the ways of resolution of these problems are given. A version of the equivalent circuit as a six-pole network, the parameters of which do not depend on the angle of shift Θ between the voltage vectors of circuits is offered. The interrelation between the parameters of the equivalent circuit and the transmission constants of the line was determined. A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line was elaborated. The model allows calculating the stationary modes of lines of such classes at any angle of shift Θ between the circuits. (author)

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward M. Hill

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for

Influence of contact definitions in assessment of the relative importance of social settings in disease transmission risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsty J Bolton

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of social settings in respiratory pathogen spread using three measures of person contact hours (PCH as proxies for transmission risk with an aim to inform bipartite network models of respiratory pathogen transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our survey examines the contact behaviour for a convenience sample of 65 adults, with each encounter classified as occurring in a work, retail, home, social, travel or "other" setting. The diary design allows for extraction of PCH-interaction (cumulative time in face-face conversational or touch interaction with contacts--analogous to the contact measure used in several existing surveys--as well as PCH-setting (product of time spent in setting and number of people present and PCH-reach (product of time spent in setting and number of people in close proximity. Heterogeneities in day-dependent distribution of risk across settings are analysed using partitioning and cluster analyses and compared between days and contact measures. Although home is typically the highest-risk setting when PCH measures isolate two-way interactions, its relative importance compared to social and work settings may reduce when adopting a more inclusive contact measure that considers the number and duration of potential exposure events. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneities in location-dependent contact behaviour as measured by contact diary studies depend on the adopted contact definition. We find that contact measures isolating face-face conversational or touch interactions suggest that contact in the home dominates, whereas more inclusive contact measures indicate that home and work settings may be of higher importance. In the absence of definitive knowledge of the contact required to facilitate transmission of various

Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Marie Aerts

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

SimWIND: A geospatial infrastructure model for optimizing wind power generation and transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, Benjamin R.; Middleton, Richard S.

2012-01-01

Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with the capacity to satisfy 20% or more of U.S. electricity demand. Presently, wind potential is limited by a paucity of electrical transmission lines and/or capacity between promising wind resources and primary load centers. We present the model SimWIND to address this shortfall. SimWIND is an integrated optimization model for the geospatial arrangement and cost minimization of wind-power generation–transmission–delivery infrastructure. Given a set of possible wind-farm sites, the model simultaneously determines (1) where and how much power to generate and (2) where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity in order to minimize the cost for delivering a targeted amount of power to load. Costs and routing of transmission lines consider geographic and social constraints as well as electricity losses. We apply our model to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Interconnection, considering scenarios that deliver up to 20 GW of new wind power. We show that SimWIND could potentially reduce ERCOT's projected ∼$5B transmission network upgrade line length and associated costs by 50%. These results suggest that SimWIND's coupled generation–transmission–delivery modeling approach could play a critical role in enhancing planning efforts and reducing costs for wind energy integration. - Highlights: ► Wind power is limited by transmission capacity between resources and demands. ► SimWIND is a coupled generation-transmission-delivery model for wind infrastructure. ► The model minimizes costs considering realistic transmission routing and networking. ► We show that SimWIND could save 50% of $5B costs for expanding the Texas grid. ► Results suggest SimWIND may play a critical role in enhancings wind planning efforts.

Side-coupled cavity model for surface plasmon-polariton transmission across a groove

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, J.S.Q.

2010-01-01

We demonstrate that the transmission properties of surface plasmon-polaritons (SPPs) across a rectangular groove in a metallic film can be described by an analytical model that treats the groove as a side-coupled cavity to propagating SPPs on the metal surface. The coupling efficiency to the groove is quantified by treating it as a truncated metal-dielectric-metal (MDM) waveguide. Finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) simulations and mode orthogonality relations are employed to derive the basic scattering coefficients that describe the interaction between the relevant modes in the system. The modeled SPP transmission and reflection intensities show excellent agreement with full-field simulations over a wide range of groove dimensions, validating this intuitive model. The model predicts the sharp transmission minima that occur whenever an incident SPP resonantly couples to the groove. We also for the first time show the importance of evanescent, reactive MDM SPP modes to the transmission behavior. SPPs that couple to this mode are resonantly enhanced upon reflection from the bottom of the groove, leading to high field intensities and sharp transmission minima across the groove. The resonant behavior exhibited by the grooves has a number of important device applications, including SPP mirrors, filters, and modulators.

Wildlife disease elimination and density dependence

KAUST Repository

Potapov, A.

2012-05-16

Disease control by managers is a crucial response to emerging wildlife epidemics, yet the means of control may be limited by the method of disease transmission. In particular, it is widely held that population reduction, while effective for controlling diseases that are subject to density-dependent (DD) transmission, is ineffective for controlling diseases that are subject to frequency-dependent (FD) transmission. We investigate control for horizontally transmitted diseases with FD transmission where the control is via culling or harvest that is non-selective with respect to infection and the population can compensate through DD recruitment or survival. Using a mathematical model, we show that culling or harvesting can eradicate the disease, even when transmission dynamics are FD. Eradication can be achieved under FD transmission when DD birth or recruitment induces compensatory growth of new, healthy individuals, which has the net effect of reducing disease prevalence by dilution. We also show that if harvest is used simultaneously with vaccination, and there is high enough transmission coefficient, application of both controls may be less efficient than vaccination alone. We illustrate the effects of these control approaches on disease prevalence for chronic wasting disease in deer where the disease is transmitted directly among deer and through the environment.

Sound transmission through lightweight double-leaf partitions: theoretical modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Lu, T. J.; Woodhouse, J.; Langley, R. S.; Evans, J.

2005-09-01

This paper presents theoretical modelling of the sound transmission loss through double-leaf lightweight partitions stiffened with periodically placed studs. First, by assuming that the effect of the studs can be replaced with elastic springs uniformly distributed between the sheathing panels, a simple smeared model is established. Second, periodic structure theory is used to develop a more accurate model taking account of the discrete placing of the studs. Both models treat incident sound waves in the horizontal plane only, for simplicity. The predictions of the two models are compared, to reveal the physical mechanisms determining sound transmission. The smeared model predicts relatively simple behaviour, in which the only conspicuous features are associated with coincidence effects with the two types of structural wave allowed by the partition model, and internal resonances of the air between the panels. In the periodic model, many more features are evident, associated with the structure of pass- and stop-bands for structural waves in the partition. The models are used to explain the effects of incidence angle and of the various system parameters. The predictions are compared with existing test data for steel plates with wooden stiffeners, and good agreement is obtained.

Simulation model of an electrohydraulic-actuated double-clutch transmission vehicle: modelling and system design

Science.gov (United States)

Schoeftner, J.; Ebner, W.

2017-12-01

Automated and manual transmissions are the main link between engine and powertrain. The technical term when the transmission provides the desired torque during all possible driving conditions is denoted as powertrain matching. Recent developments in the last years show that double-clutch-transmissions (DCTs) are a reasonable compromise in terms of production costs, shifting quality, drivability and fuel efficiency. They have several advantages compared to other automatic transmissions (AT). Most DCTs nowadays consist of a hydraulic actuation control unit, which controls the clutches of the gearbox in order to induce a desired drivetrain torque into the driveline. The main functions of hydraulic systems are manifold: they initiate gear shifts, they provide sufficient oil for lubrication and they control the shift quality by suitably providing a desired oil flow or pressure for the clutch actuation. In this paper, a mathematical model of a passenger car equipped with a DCT is presented. The objective of this contribution is to get an increased understanding for the dynamics of the hydraulic circuit and its coupling to the vehicle drivetrain. The simulation model consists of a hydraulic and a mechanical domain: the hydraulic actuation circuit is described by nonlinear differential equations and includes the dynamics of the line pressure and the proportional valve, as well as the influence of the pressure reducing valve, pipe resistances and accumulator dynamics. The drivetrain with its gear ratios, moments of inertia, torsional stiffness of the rotating shafts and a simple longitudinal vehicle model represent the mechanical domain. The link between hydraulic and mechanical domain is given by the clutch, which combines hydraulic equations and Newton's laws. The presented mathematical model may not only be used as a simulation model for developing the transmission control software, it may also serve as a virtual layout for the design process phase. At the end of this

Reprint of “Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS”

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinh, Minh-Chau; Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon; Yu, In-Keun

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system was designed and fabricated. ► A real-time simulation using Real Time Digital Simulator has been performed. ► The AC loss characteristics of HTS DC power cable caused by harmonics were analyzed. ► The AC loss of the HTS DC power cable will be used as a parameter to design the cable cooling system. -- Abstract: The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail

Reprint of “Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS”

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinh, Minh-Chau, E-mail: thanchau7787@gmail.com [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Yu, In-Keun, E-mail: yuik@changwon.ac.kr [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of)

2013-01-15

Highlights: ► A model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system was designed and fabricated. ► A real-time simulation using Real Time Digital Simulator has been performed. ► The AC loss characteristics of HTS DC power cable caused by harmonics were analyzed. ► The AC loss of the HTS DC power cable will be used as a parameter to design the cable cooling system. -- Abstract: The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

Comparison of Transmission Line Methods for Surface Acoustic Wave Modeling

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Wilson, William; Atkinson, Gary

2009-01-01

Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) technology is low cost, rugged, lightweight, extremely low power and can be used to develop passive wireless sensors. For these reasons, NASA is investigating the use of SAW technology for Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM) of aerospace structures. To facilitate rapid prototyping of passive SAW sensors for aerospace applications, SAW models have been developed. This paper reports on the comparison of three methods of modeling SAWs. The three models are the Impulse Response Method (a first order model), and two second order matrix methods; the conventional matrix approach, and a modified matrix approach that is extended to include internal finger reflections. The second order models are based upon matrices that were originally developed for analyzing microwave circuits using transmission line theory. Results from the models are presented with measured data from devices. Keywords: Surface Acoustic Wave, SAW, transmission line models, Impulse Response Method.

Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

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Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-04-01

The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

Disease prevalence and transmission of Microsporidium phytoseiuli infecting the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis (Acari: Phytoseiidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Bjørnson, S; Keddie, B A

2001-02-01

Isolated colonies of the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis, were used to gain information regarding prevalence and transmission of Microsporidium phytoseiuli. Two colonies of P. persimilis were reared on spider mite (Tetranychus urticae)-infested bean plants in isolated cages. Disease prevalence of predators from Colony 1 remained relatively low (between 0 and 15%) over 57 weeks of observation whereas disease prevalence of predators from Colony 2 increased over 3 months (from 12 to 100%). Disease prevalence among predators from Colony 1 had increased to 100% 2 months after weekly sampling had ceased for this colony and periodic sampling confirmed that disease prevalence among individuals of both colonies remained at 100%. Microsporidian spores were not detected in randomly chosen samples of T. urticae prey mites that were removed and examined biweekly during this period. Although numerous microsporidian spores were observed in smear preparations of fecal pellets examined by light microscopy, spores were not observed on leaf surfaces or predator feces when examined by SEM. The latter appeared as intact aggregates composed of numerous dumbbell-shaped crystals and it is unlikely that spores are liberated from intact fecal pellets onto leaf surfaces. Vertical transmission of M. phytoseiuli was 100%; horizontal transmission was low (14.3%) and occurred only when immature P. persimilis were permitted to develop in contact with infected immature and adult predators. The mean number of eggs produced per mated pair was highest when uninfected females were mated with uninfected males (63.2 eggs per mated pair). Although mean egg production decreased when one or both parents were infected, not all differences were significant. Male predatory mites did not contribute to infection of their progeny. Results suggest that routine examination of P. persimilis for microsporidian spores is essential for the management of M. phytoseiuli within P. persimilis colonies. Low disease

Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Danson, F Mark; Giraudoux, Patrick; Craig, Philip S

2006-01-01

Recent research in central China has suggested that the most likely transmission mechanism for Echinococcus multilocularis to humans is via domestic dogs which are allowed to roam freely and hunt (infected) small mammals within areas close to villages or in areas of tented pasture. This assertion has led to the hypothesis that there is a landscape control on transmission risk since the proximity of suitable habitat for susceptible small mammals appears to be the key. We have tested this hypothesis in a number of endemic areas in China, notably south Gansu Province and the Tibetan region of western Sichuan Province. The fundamental landscape control is its effect at a regional scale on small mammal species assemblages (susceptible species are not ubiquitous) and, at a local scale, the spatial distributions of small mammal populations. To date the research has examined relationships between landscape composition and patterns of human infection, landscape and small mammal distributions and recently the relationships between landscape and dog infection rates. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk. This paper reviews the progress that has been made so far in spatial modeling of the ecology of E. multilocularis with particular reference to China, outlines current research issues, and describes a framework for building a spatial-temporal model of transmission ecology.

Small passenger car transmission test-Chevrolet 200 transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Bujold, M. P.

1980-01-01

The small passenger car transmission was tested to supply electric vehicle manufacturers with technical information regarding the performance of commerically available transmissions which would enable them to design a more energy efficient vehicle. With this information the manufacturers could estimate vehicle driving range as well as speed and torque requirements for specific road load performance characteristics. A 1979 Chevrolet Model 200 automatic transmission was tested per a passenger car automatic transmission test code (SAE J651b) which required drive performance, coast performance, and no load test conditions. The transmission attained maximum efficiencies in the mid-eighty percent range for both drive performance tests and coast performance tests. Torque, speed and efficiency curves map the complete performance characteristics for Chevrolet Model 200 transmission.

Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matt Begun

Full Text Available The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development

Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Begun, Matt; Newall, Anthony T; Marks, Guy B; Wood, James G

2013-01-01

The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and

Modelos de determinação social das doenças crônicas não-transmissíveis Models of social determination of chronic non-communicable diseases

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Naomar Almeida-Filho

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Este ensaio revisa criticamente marcos referenciais e modelos teóricos de determinação social das chamadas Doenças Crônicas Não-Transmissíveis. A sociologia funcionalista gerou modelos socioculturais de saúde que influenciaram o campo de investigação epidemiológica da chamada "nova morbidade" (basicamente enfermidades crônicas e degenerativas, posteriormente agrupados sob o rótulo genérico de Teoria do Estresse. Analisam-se abordagens neodurkheimianas das desigualdades sociais, baseadas no conceito de capital social, criticando especialmente os usos quase-teóricos da noção de "estilo de vida" no campo da saúde. Discutem-se ainda alguns modelos derivados do materialismo dialético que se tornaram bastante influentes na epidemiologia social latino-americana, com base nos conceitos de trabalho e classe social. Finalmente, considerando lacunas teóricas e conceituais dessas teorias parciais no que diz respeito ao espaço simbólico da vida social, apresentam-se as bases conceituais de um enfoque teórico alternativo - a "teoria do modo de vida e saúde". Tomada como síntese possível dos modelos objeto desta revisão crítica, considera-se esta teoria como especialmente indicada para a elaboração de modelos epidemiológicos de determinação social de doenças crônicas não-transmissíveis.This essay critically revises theoretical frameworks and models of social determination of chronic non-communicable diseases. Functionalist sociology generated sociocultural models of health that influenced the field of epidemiologic investigation of so-called "new morbidity" (basically chronic and degenerative illnesses, later contained under the generic label of stress theory. Neo-durkheimian approaches of social inequalities, based on the social capital concept, are analyzed and theoretical uses of the lifestyle notion in the health field are criticized. Models derived from the dialectical materialism, grounded on the concepts of labor and

Mule deer spatial association patterns and potential implications for transmission of an epizootic disease.

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María Fernanda Mejía-Salazar

Full Text Available Animal social behaviour can have important effects on the long-term dynamics of diseases. In particular, preferential spatial relationships between individuals can lead to differences in the rates of disease spread within a population. We examined the concurrent influence of genetic relatedness, sex, age, home range overlap, time of year, and prion disease status on proximal associations of adult Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus in a chronic wasting disease endemic area. We also quantified the temporal stability of these associations across different sex, age, and disease status classes. We used three years of high frequency telemetry data from 74 individuals to record encounters within 25 m of each other, and to calculate seasonal home range overlap measured by volume of intersection (VI. The strength of pairwise spatial association between adult mule deer was independent of genetic relatedness, age and disease status. Seasonal variation in association strength was not consistent across years, perhaps due to annual changes in weather conditions. The influence of home range overlap on association strength varied seasonally, whereby associations were stronger in pre-rut and fawning than in the rest of the seasons. The sexes of individuals also interacted with both VI and season. At increasing levels of VI, associations were stronger between females than between males and between females and males. The strongest associations in pre-rut were between males, while the strongest in rut were between females and males. The temporal stability of associations was markedly dependant on the sex and the diagnosis of the associating pair. Our findings highlight the importance of considering concurrent effects of biological and environmental factors when seeking to understand the role of social preference in behavioural ecology and disease spread. Applying this knowledge in epidemiological modelling will shed light on the dynamics of

Transmission of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the Immunocompromised Ferret Model

Science.gov (United States)

de Waal, Leon; Smits, Saskia L.; Veldhuis Kroeze, Edwin J. B.; van Amerongen, Geert; Pohl, Marie O.; Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E.; Stittelaar, Koert J.

2018-01-01

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) causes substantial morbidity and mortality in vulnerable patients, such as the very young, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals of any age. Nosocomial transmission of HRSV remains a serious challenge in hospital settings, with intervention strategies largely limited to infection control measures, including isolation of cases, high standards of hand hygiene, cohort nursing, and use of personal protective equipment. No vaccines against HRSV are currently available, and treatment options are largely supportive care and expensive monoclonal antibody or antiviral therapy. The limitations of current animal models for HRSV infection impede the development of new preventive and therapeutic agents, and the assessment of their potential for limiting HRSV transmission, in particular in nosocomial settings. Here, we demonstrate the efficient transmission of HRSV from immunocompromised ferrets to both immunocompromised and immunocompetent contact ferrets, with pathological findings reproducing HRSV pathology in humans. The immunocompromised ferret-HRSV model represents a novel tool for the evaluation of intervention strategies against nosocomial transmission of HRSV. PMID:29301313

Transmission Dinamics Model Of Dengue Fever

Science.gov (United States)

Debora; Rendy; Rahmi

2018-01-01

Dengue fever is an endemic disease that is transmitted through the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector. The disease is present in more than 100 countries in America, Africa, and Asia, especially tropical countries. Differential equations can be used to represent the spread of dengue virus occurring in time intervals and model in the form of mathematical models. The mathematical model in this study tries to represent the spread of dengue fever based on the data obtained and the assumptions used. The mathematical model used is a mathematical model consisting of Susceptible (S), Infected (I), Viruses (V) subpopulations. The SIV mathematical model is then analyzed to see the solution behaviour of the system.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyun M Yang

2001-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Mniszewski, S M; Manore, C A; Bryan, C; Del Valle, S Y; Roberts, D

2014-07-01

Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread.

Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romain Silhol

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0-11 years old.Moreover, the individual-based model structure allowed us to reproduce several observed features of VZV epidemiology which were not included as hypotheses in the model: the age at varicella in first-born children was older than in other children, in accordance with observation; the same was true for children residing in rural areas. Model predicted incidence was comparable to observed incidence over time. These results show that models based on detailed census data on a small scale provide valid small scale prediction. By simulating several scenarios, we evaluate how varicella epidemiology is shaped by policies, such as age at first school enrolment, and school eviction. This supports the use of such models for investigating outcomes of public health measures.

Analytical Model for High Impedance Fault Analysis in Transmission Lines

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S. Maximov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A high impedance fault (HIF normally occurs when an overhead power line physically breaks and falls to the ground. Such faults are difficult to detect because they often draw small currents which cannot be detected by conventional overcurrent protection. Furthermore, an electric arc accompanies HIFs, resulting in fire hazard, damage to electrical devices, and risk with human life. This paper presents an analytical model to analyze the interaction between the electric arc associated to HIFs and a transmission line. A joint analytical solution to the wave equation for a transmission line and a nonlinear equation for the arc model is presented. The analytical model is validated by means of comparisons between measured and calculated results. Several cases of study are presented which support the foundation and accuracy of the proposed model.

Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

2016-11-01

The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Animal models for oral transmission of Listeria monocytogenes

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Sarah E F D'Orazio

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has been recognized as a food borne pathogen in humans since the 1980s, but we still understand very little about oral transmission of L. monocytogenes or the host factors that determine susceptibility to gastrointestinal infection, due to the lack of an appropriate small animal model of oral listeriosis. Early feeding trials suggested that many animals were highly resistant to oral infection, and the more reproducible intravenous or intraperitoneal routes of inoculation soon came to be favored. There are a fair number of previously published studies using an oral infection route, but the work varies widely in terms of bacterial strain choice, the methods used for oral transmission, and various manipulations used to enhance infectivity. This mini review will summarize the published literature using oral routes of L. monocytogenes infection and will highlight recent technological advances that have made oral infection a more attractive model system.

Use of element model to evaluate transmissibility reduction due to barriers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svanes, T.; South, D.; Dronen, O.M. [Statoil, Bergen (Norway)

1997-08-01

Water breakthrough has been observed a year earlier than expected in the productive Oseberg Formation in the Veslefrikk Field. Production data revealed extensive water override, whereas the opposite situation was expected based on a homogeneous and coarse flow simulation model. A new model was developed to include geological heterogeneities using a simple upscaling method. The Oseberg Fm. consists of an upper homogeneous unit (zone 2) and a lower unit containing thin barriers of shale and calcite cemented sandstone (zone 1). The barrier content varies laterally. When barriers are distributed in a complex 3D pattern, they reduce the upscaled horizontal transmissibility more than what is obtained by multiplying the sand permeability by the net-to-gross ratio (N/G). However, the transmissibility reduction strongly depends on the spatial distribution of barriers and their geometry. Therefore, a fine scale element model was used to derive the average transmissibility reduction as a function of N/G for alternative geological descriptions of the barriers. A geo-statistical method called General Marked Point Process was used to generate the fine scale descriptions. This work has resulted in a simple upscaling routine for horizontal transmissibility, which represents an effective bridge between geological evaluation of uncertainties and fluid flow simulation. The method combines geo-statistical and deterministic modelling in an elegant manner, recognising that most often these methods complement one another.

Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spreac

Science.gov (United States)

Henaux, Viviane; Jane Parmley,; Catherine Soos,; Samuel, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Estimating disease transmission in wildlife populations is critical to understand host–pathogen dynamics, predict disease risks and prioritize surveillance activities. However, obtaining reliable estimates for free-ranging populations is extremely challenging. In particular, disease surveillance programs may routinely miss the onset or end of epizootics and peak prevalence, limiting the ability to evaluate infectious processes.

Possible iatrogenic transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via tonometer tips: a review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Walia, J S; Chronister, C L

2001-10-01

Tonometer tips are used by optometrists to measure intraocular pressures. The recommended procedure of soaking in bleach solution kills bacteria and certain viruses, such as human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus-1 and herpes simplex virus-2, adenovirus 8, and hepatitis B, from the tip. Conversely, recommendations made in literature to sterilize equipment that may have come in contact with virus-contaminated tissue from patients with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease have a somewhat tougher requirement. Autoclaving for 1 hour at a temperature of at least 120 degrees C (15 psi), or a 1-hour exposure to 0.5% sodium hypochlorite (a 10-fold dilution of household bleach) should provide excellent disinfection. One-hour exposure to 1 N Sodium hydroxide has also been mentioned in the literature. Studies have shown that corneas of guinea pigs with Cruetzfeldt-Jakob disease (C-J disease) are infectious. Infected corneas have been shown to cause transmission via corneal transplants, and via experimental placement of infected guinea pig's cornea into the anterior chamber of uninfected guinea pigs. Many researchers have strongly suggested that C-J disease can be iatrogenically transmitted via applanation tonometer tips. An epidemiologic case-controlled study found statistically significant odds ratio for intraocular pressure testing in the medical history of patients with C-J disease. Even though there have not been any proven studies confirming iatrogenic transmission through tonometer tips, optometrists should be cautious if a patient has C-J disease, or manifests symptoms of C-J disease and use alternatives to Goldmann applanation tonometry.

Analysis of a Malaria Model with Mosquito-Dependent Transmission ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In this paper, we discuss an ordinary differential equation mathematical model for the spread of malaria in human and mosquito population. We suppose the human population to act as a reservoir. Both the species follow a logistic population model. The transmission coefficient or the interaction coefficient of humans is ...

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen M Campbell

Full Text Available Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather.We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5

Lyme Disease Transmission

Science.gov (United States)

... not known to transmit Lyme disease include Lone star ticks ( Amblyomma americanum ), the American dog tick ( Dermacentor ... of Vector-Borne Diseases (DVBD) Email Recommend Tweet YouTube Instagram Listen Watch RSS ABOUT About CDC Jobs ...

Echinococcosis : disease, detection and transmission

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Craig, P.S.; Rogan, M T; Campos-Ponce, M

2003-01-01

Echinococcosis is one of the world's most geographically widespread parasitic zoonoses, with transmission occurring in tropical, temperate and arctic biomes. Most human infections are due to Echinococcus granulosus transmitted between domestic dogs and livestock, but this cosmopolitan species also

Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

INVITED ARTICLE James M. Hughes and Mary E. Wilson, Section Editors Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical...for risk mitigation. Few data on the epidemiology of infectious diseases occurring among traveling health care workers (HCWs) exist. Surveillance... Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b

Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Baggaley, Rebecca F.; Fraser, Christophe

2010-01-01

Purpose of review To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact. Recent findings We use mathematical modelling of “universal test and treat” as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission. Summary Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, while complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and thus be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis where assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis. PMID:20543600

Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Gussmann, Maya Katrin

2017-01-01

the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most...... tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models....

A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cécile Viboud

2016-06-01

Conclusions: Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon, especially for pathogens that are not airborne. Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of “deceleration parameters” may be useful to refine existing mathematical transmission models and improve disease forecasts.

Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilcke, Joke; Chapman, Ruth; Atchison, Christina; Cromer, Deborah; Johnson, Helen; Willem, Lander; Cox, Martin; Edmunds, William John; Jit, Mark

2015-07-01

Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action. A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%-63%) and 44% (30%-62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available. Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination. © The Author(s) 2015.

The pathogen transmission avoidance theory of sexual selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loehle, C.

1997-08-01

The current theory that sexual selection results from female preference for males with good genes suffers from several problems. An alternative explanation, the pathogen transmission avoidance hypothesis, argues that the primary function of showy traits is to provide a reliable signal of current disease status, so that sick individuals can be avoided during mating. This study shows that a significant risk of pathogen transmission occurs during mating and that showy traits are reliable indicators of current disease status. The origin of female choosiness is argued to lie in a general tendency to avoid sick individuals, even in the absence of showy traits, which originate as exaggerations of normal traits that are indicative of good health (bright feathers, vigorous movement, large size). Thus, in this new model the origins of both showy traits and female choosiness are not problematic and there is no threshold effect. This model predicts that when the possession of male showy traits does not help to reduce disease in the female, showy traits are unlikely to occur. This case corresponds to thorough exposure of every animal to all group pathogens, on average, in large groups. Such species are shown with a large data set on birds to be less likely to exhibit showy traits. The good-genes model does not make this prediction. The pathogen transmission avoidance model can also lead to the evolution of showy traits even when selection is not effective against a given pathogen (e.g., when there is no heritable variation for resistance), but can result in selection for resistance if such genes are present. Monogamy is argued to reduce selection pressures for showy traits; data show monogamous species to be both less parasitized and less showy. In the context of reduction of pathogen transmission rates in showy populations, selection pressure becomes inversely frequency-dependent, which makes showy traits likely to be self-limiting rather than runaway.

Modeling and analysis of strategic forward contracting in transmission constrained power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, C.W.; Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wang, X.

2010-01-01

Taking the effects of transmission network into account, strategic forward contracting induced by the interaction of generation firms' strategies in the spot and forward markets is investigated. A two-stage game model is proposed to describe generation firms' strategic forward contracting and spot market competition. In the spot market, generation firms behave strategically by submitting bids at their nodes in a form of linear supply function (LSF) and there are arbitrageurs who buy and resell power at different nodes where price differences exceed the costs of transmission. The owner of the grid is assumed to ration limited transmission line capacity to maximize the value of the transmission services in the spot market. The Cournot-type competition is assumed for the strategic forward contract market. This two-stage model is formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC); in which each firm's optimization problem in the forward market is a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and parameter-dependent spot market equilibrium as the inner problem. A nonlinear complementarity method is employed to solve this EPEC model. (author)

High resolution transmission spectroscopy as a diagnostic for Jovian exoplanet atmospheres: constraints from theoretical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kempton, Eliza M.-R. [Department of Physics, Grinnell College, Grinnell, IA 50112 (United States); Perna, Rosalba [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794 (United States); Heng, Kevin, E-mail: kemptone@grinnell.edu [University of Bern, Center for Space and Habitability, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

2014-11-01

We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model Jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9-55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple one-dimensional (1D) models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blueshifts of up to 3 km s{sup –1}, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. We find only minor differences between transmission spectra for atmospheres with temperature inversions and those without. Compared to 1D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption

Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-02-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA's modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes

Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-02-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA`s modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes.

All Clinically-Relevant Blood Components Transmit Prion Disease following a Single Blood Transfusion: A Sheep Model of vCJD

Science.gov (United States)

de Wolf, Christopher; Tan, Boon Chin; Smith, Antony; Groschup, Martin H.; Hunter, Nora; Hornsey, Valerie S.; MacGregor, Ian R.; Prowse, Christopher V.; Turner, Marc; Manson, Jean C.

2011-01-01

Variant CJD (vCJD) is an incurable, infectious human disease, likely arising from the consumption of BSE-contaminated meat products. Whilst the epidemic appears to be waning, there is much concern that vCJD infection may be perpetuated in humans by the transfusion of contaminated blood products. Since 2004, several cases of transfusion-associated vCJD transmission have been reported and linked to blood collected from pre-clinically affected donors. Using an animal model in which the disease manifested resembles that of humans affected with vCJD, we examined which blood components used in human medicine are likely to pose the greatest risk of transmitting vCJD via transfusion. We collected two full units of blood from BSE-infected donor animals during the pre-clinical phase of infection. Using methods employed by transfusion services we prepared red cell concentrates, plasma and platelets units (including leucoreduced equivalents). Following transfusion, we showed that all components contain sufficient levels of infectivity to cause disease following only a single transfusion and also that leucoreduction did not prevent disease transmission. These data suggest that all blood components are vectors for prion disease transmission, and highlight the importance of multiple control measures to minimise the risk of human to human transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion. PMID:21858015

The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Valdazo-González, Begoña; Kim, Jan T; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

2015-06-01

Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Communicative Modelling of Cultural Transmission and Evolution Through a Holographic Cognition Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ambjörn Naeve

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article presents communicative ways to model the transmission and evolution of the processes and artefacts of a culture as the result of ongoing interactions between its members - both at the tacit and the explicit level. The purpose is not to model the entire cultural process, but to provide semantically rich “conceptual placeholders” for modelling any cultural activity that is considered important enough within a certain context. The general purpose of communicative modelling is to create models that improve the quality of communication between people. In order to capture the subjective aspects of Gregory Bateson’s definition of information as “a difference that makes a difference,” the article introduces a Holographic Cognition Model that uses optical holography as an analogy for human cognition, with the object beam of holography corresponding to the first difference (the situation that the cognitive agent encounters, and the reference beam of holography corresponding to the subjective experiences and biases that the agent brings to the situation, and which makes the second difference (the interference/interpretation pattern unique for each agent. By combining the HCM with a semantically rich and recursive form of process modelling, based on the SECI-theory of knowledge creation, we arrive at way to model the cultural transmission and evolution process that is consistent with the Unified Theory of Information (the Triple-C model with its emphasis on intra-, inter- and supra-actions.

Research on investment decisions model of trans-regional transmission network based on the theory of NPV

Science.gov (United States)

Zai, Wenjiao; Wang, Bo; Liu, Jichun; Shi, Haobo; Zeng, Pingliang

2018-02-01

The investment decision model of trans-regional transmission network in the context of Global Energy Internet was studied in this paper. The key factors affecting the trans-regional transmission network investment income: the income tax rate, the loan interest rate, the expected return on investment of the investment subject, the per capita GDP and so on were considered in the transmission network investment income model. First, according to the principle of system dynamics, the causality diagram of key factors was constructed. Then, the dynamic model of transmission investment decision was established. A case study of the power transmission network between China and Mongolia, through the simulation of the system dynamic model, the influence of the above key factors on the investment returns was analyzed, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model was proved.

Mathematical modeling of zika virus disease with nonlinear incidence and optimal control

Science.gov (United States)

Goswami, Naba Kumar; Srivastav, Akhil Kumar; Ghosh, Mini; Shanmukha, B.

2018-04-01

The Zika virus was first discovered in a rhesus monkey in the Zika Forest of Uganda in 1947, and it was isolated from humans in Nigeria in 1952. Zika virus disease is primarily a mosquito-borne disease, which is transmitted to human primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito. However, there is documented evidence of sexual transmission of this disease too. In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model for Zika virus by considering nonlinear incidence is formulated and analyzed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number (R0) of the model are found. The stability of the different equilibria of the model is discussed in detail. When the basic reproduction number R0 1, we have endemic equilibrium which is locally stable under some restriction on parameters. Further this model is extended to optimal control model and is analyzed by using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. It has been observed that optimal control plays a significant role in reducing the number of zika infectives. Finally, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the analytical findings.

Training Systems Modelers through the Development of a Multi-scale Chagas Disease Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hanley, J.; Stevens-Goodnight, S.; Kulkarni, S.; Bustamante, D.; Fytilis, N.; Goff, P.; Monroy, C.; Morrissey, L. A.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Dorn, P.; Lucero, D.; Rios, J.; Rizzo, D. M.

2012-12-01

The goal of our NSF-sponsored Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences grant is to create a multidisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit models of vector-borne disease risk using Chagas disease as our model. Chagas disease is a parasitic disease endemic to Latin America that afflicts an estimated 10 million people. The causative agent (Trypanosoma cruzi) is most commonly transmitted to humans by blood feeding triatomine insect vectors. Our objectives are: (1) advance knowledge on the multiple interacting factors affecting the transmission of Chagas disease, and (2) provide next generation genomic and spatial analysis tools applicable to the study of other vector-borne diseases worldwide. This funding is a collaborative effort between the RSENR (UVM), the School of Engineering (UVM), the Department of Biology (UVM), the Department of Biological Sciences (Loyola (New Orleans)) and the Laboratory of Applied Entomology and Parasitology (Universidad de San Carlos). Throughout this five-year study, multi-educational groups (i.e., high school, undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral) will be trained in systems modeling. This systems approach challenges students to incorporate environmental, social, and economic as well as technical aspects and enables modelers to simulate and visualize topics that would either be too expensive, complex or difficult to study directly (Yasar and Landau 2003). We launch this research by developing a set of multi-scale, epidemiological models of Chagas disease risk using STELLA® software v.9.1.3 (isee systems, inc., Lebanon, NH). We use this particular system dynamics software as a starting point because of its simple graphical user interface (e.g., behavior-over-time graphs, stock/flow diagrams, and causal loops). To date, high school and undergraduate students have created a set of multi-scale (i.e., homestead, village, and regional) disease models. Modeling the system at multiple spatial scales forces recognition that