WorldWideScience

Sample records for disease transmission model

  1. A mathematical model of Chagas disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayat, Dayat; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Nuraini, Nuning

    2018-03-01

    Chagas disease is a parasitic infection caused by protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi which is transmitted to human by insects of the subfamily Triatominae, including Rhodnius prolixus. This disease is a major problem in several countries of Latin America. A mathematical model of Chagas disease with separate vector reservoir and a neighboring human resident is constructed. The basic reproductive ratio is obtained and stability analysis of the equilibria is shown. We also performed sensitivity populations dynamics of infected humans and infected insects based on migration rate, carrying capacity, and infection rate parameters. Our findings showed that the dynamics of the infected human and insect is mostly affected by carrying capacity insect in the settlement.

  2. Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

    2018-03-01

    Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

  3. Mathematical models for therapeutic approaches to control HIV disease transmission

    CERN Document Server

    Roy, Priti Kumar

    2015-01-01

    The book discusses different therapeutic approaches based on different mathematical models to control the HIV/AIDS disease transmission. It uses clinical data, collected from different cited sources, to formulate the deterministic as well as stochastic mathematical models of HIV/AIDS. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic and stochastic points of view, to optimal control strategy with perfect drug adherence and also tries to seek viewpoints of the same issue from different angles with various mathematical models to computer simulations. The book presents essential methods and techniques for students who are interested in designing epidemiological models on HIV/AIDS. It also guides research scientists, working in the periphery of mathematical modeling, and helps them to explore a hypothetical method by examining its consequences in the form of a mathematical modelling and making some scientific predictions. The model equations, mathematical analysis and several numerical simulations that are...

  4. Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases.

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    Willem, Lander; Stijven, Sean; Tijskens, Engelbert; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel; Broeckhove, Jan

    2015-06-02

    Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential of current high-performance workstations. We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simulation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26% up to more than 70%. We have investigated the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large difference. Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance.

  5. Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

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    Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

    2014-01-07

    Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD

  6. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  7. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L

    2015-03-01

    Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

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    Xia, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Shi-Fu; Li, Shen-Long; Huang, Liu-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Sun, Gui-Quan; Gai, Zhong-Tao; Jin, Zhen

    2015-09-08

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

  9. Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tewa, Jean Jules; Dimi, Jean Luc; Bowong, Samuel

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.

  10. Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tewa, Jean Jules [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Yaounde I, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde (Cameroon)], E-mail: tewa@univ-metz.fr; Dimi, Jean Luc [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University Marien Ngouabi, P.O. Box 69, Brazzaville (Congo, The Democratic Republic of the)], E-mail: jldimi@yahoo.fr; Bowong, Samuel [Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, P.O. Box 24157, Douala (Cameroon)], E-mail: samuelbowong@yahoo.fr

    2009-01-30

    In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.

  11. A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling

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    Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.

    2015-03-01

    Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.

  12. Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

    2013-01-01

    An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

  13. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  14. Monkeypox disease transmission in an experimental setting: prairie dog animal model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina L Hutson

    Full Text Available Monkeypox virus (MPXV is considered the most significant human public health threat in the genus Orthopoxvirus since the eradication of variola virus (the causative agent of smallpox. MPXV is a zoonotic agent endemic to forested areas of Central and Western Africa. In 2003, MPXV caused an outbreak in the United States due to the importation of infected African rodents, and subsequent sequential infection of North American prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus and humans. In previous studies, the prairie dog MPXV model has successfully shown to be very useful for understanding MPXV since the model emulates key characteristics of human monkeypox disease. In humans, percutaneous exposure to animals has been documented but the primary method of human-to-human MPXV transmission is postulated to be by respiratory route. Only a few animal model studies of MPXV transmission have been reported. Herein, we show that MPXV infected prairie dogs are able to transmit the virus to naive animals through multiple transmission routes. All secondarily exposed animals were infected with MPXV during the course of the study. Notably, animals secondarily exposed appeared to manifest more severe disease; however, the disease course was very similar to those of experimentally challenged animals including inappetence leading to weight loss, development of lesions, production of orthopoxvirus antibodies and shedding of similar levels or in some instances higher levels of MPXV from the oral cavity. Disease was transmitted via exposure to contaminated bedding, co-housing, or respiratory secretions/nasal mucous (we could not definitively say that transmission occurred via respiratory route exclusively. Future use of the model will allow us to evaluate infection control measures, vaccines and antiviral strategies to decrease disease transmission.

  15. Emerging Infectious Diseases and Blood Safety: Modeling the Transfusion-Transmission Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiely, Philip; Gambhir, Manoj; Cheng, Allen C; McQuilten, Zoe K; Seed, Clive R; Wood, Erica M

    2017-07-01

    While the transfusion-transmission (TT) risk associated with the major transfusion-relevant viruses such as HIV is now very low, during the last 20 years there has been a growing awareness of the threat to blood safety from emerging infectious diseases, a number of which are known to be, or are potentially, transfusion transmissible. Two published models for estimating the transfusion-transmission risk from EIDs, referred to as the Biggerstaff-Petersen model and the European Upfront Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT), respectively, have been applied to several EIDs in outbreak situations. We describe and compare the methodological principles of both models, highlighting their similarities and differences. We also discuss the appropriateness of comparing results from the two models. Quantitating the TT risk of EIDs can inform decisions about risk mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness. Finally, we present a qualitative risk assessment for Zika virus (ZIKV), an EID agent that has caused several outbreaks since 2007. In the latest and largest ever outbreak, several probable cases of transfusion-transmission ZIKV have been reported, indicating that it is transfusion-transmissible and therefore a risk to blood safety. We discuss why quantitative modeling the TT risk of ZIKV is currently problematic. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Insights into mechanisms of transmission and pathogenesis from transgenic mouse models of prion diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Julie A.; Telling, Glenn C.

    2018-01-01

    Prions represent a new paradigm of protein-mediated information transfer. In the case of mammals, prions are the cause of fatal, transmissible neurodegenerative diseases, sometimes referred to as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE’s), which frequently occur as epidemics. An increasing body of evidence indicates that the canonical mechanism of conformational corruption of cellular prion protein (PrPC) by the pathogenic isoform (PrPSc) that is the basis of prion formation in TSE’s, is common to a spectrum of proteins associated with various additional human neurodegenerative disorders, including the more common Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases. The peerless infectious properties of TSE prions, and the unparalleled tools for their study, therefore enable elucidation of mechanisms of template-mediated conformational propagation that are generally applicable to these related disease states. Many unresolved issues remain including the exact molecular nature of the prion, the detailed cellular and molecular mechanisms of prion propagation, and the means by which prion diseases can be both genetic and infectious. In addition, we know little about the mechanism by which neurons degenerate during prion diseases. Tied to this, the physiological role of the normal form of the prion protein remains unclear and it is uncertain whether or not loss of this function contributes to prion pathogenesis. The factors governing the transmission of prions between species remain unclear, in particular the means by which prion strains and PrP primary structure interact to affect inter-species prion transmission. Despite all these unknowns, advances in our understanding of prions have occurred because of their transmissibility to experimental animals and the development of transgenic (Tg) mouse models has done much to further our understanding about various aspects of prion biology. In this review we will focus on advances in our understanding of prion biology that

  17. Computational modeling of interventions and protective thresholds to prevent disease transmission in deploying populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Colleen; Peace, Angela; Everett, Rebecca; Allegri, Buena; Garman, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Military personnel are deployed abroad for missions ranging from humanitarian relief efforts to combat actions; delay or interruption in these activities due to disease transmission can cause operational disruptions, significant economic loss, and stressed or exceeded military medical resources. Deployed troops function in environments favorable to the rapid and efficient transmission of many viruses particularly when levels of protection are suboptimal. When immunity among deployed military populations is low, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks increases, impacting troop readiness and achievement of mission objectives. However, targeted vaccination and the optimization of preexisting immunity among deployed populations can decrease the threat of outbreaks among deployed troops. Here we describe methods for the computational modeling of disease transmission to explore how preexisting immunity compares with vaccination at the time of deployment as a means of preventing outbreaks and protecting troops and mission objectives during extended military deployment actions. These methods are illustrated with five modeling case studies for separate diseases common in many parts of the world, to show different approaches required in varying epidemiological settings.

  18. Computational Modeling of Interventions and Protective Thresholds to Prevent Disease Transmission in Deploying Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Burgess

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military personnel are deployed abroad for missions ranging from humanitarian relief efforts to combat actions; delay or interruption in these activities due to disease transmission can cause operational disruptions, significant economic loss, and stressed or exceeded military medical resources. Deployed troops function in environments favorable to the rapid and efficient transmission of many viruses particularly when levels of protection are suboptimal. When immunity among deployed military populations is low, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks increases, impacting troop readiness and achievement of mission objectives. However, targeted vaccination and the optimization of preexisting immunity among deployed populations can decrease the threat of outbreaks among deployed troops. Here we describe methods for the computational modeling of disease transmission to explore how preexisting immunity compares with vaccination at the time of deployment as a means of preventing outbreaks and protecting troops and mission objectives during extended military deployment actions. These methods are illustrated with five modeling case studies for separate diseases common in many parts of the world, to show different approaches required in varying epidemiological settings.

  19. Two profitless delays for an SEIRS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission and pulse vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Xinzhu; Jiao Jianjun; Chen Lansun

    2009-01-01

    Since the investigation of impulsive delay differential equations is beginning, the literature on delay epidemic models with pulse vaccination is not extensive. In this paper, we propose a new SEIRS epidemic disease model with two profitless delays and vertical transmission, and analyze the dynamics behaviors of the model under pulse vaccination. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain a 'infection-free' periodic solution, further, show that the 'infection-free' periodic solution is globally attractive when some parameters of the model are under appropriate conditions. Using a new modeling method, we obtain sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic model with pulse vaccination. We show that time delays, pulse vaccination and vertical transmission can bring different effects on the dynamics behaviors of the model by numerical analysis. Our results also show the delays are 'profitless'. In this paper, the main feature is to introduce two discrete time delays, vertical transmission and impulse into SEIRS epidemic model and to give pulse vaccination strategies.

  20. Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

    2014-01-01

    A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

  1. epidemix—An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Muellner

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, their mathematical formulation means that they may appear as a “black box” to those without the appropriate mathematical background. This may lead to a negative perception of their utility for guiding policy, and generate expectations, which are not in line with what these models can deliver. It is therefore important for policymakers, as well as public health and animal health professionals and researchers who collaborate with modelers and use results generated by these models for policy development or research purpose, to understand the key concepts and assumptions underlying these models.The software application epidemix (http://shinyapps.rvc.ac.uk presented here aims to make mathematical models of disease transmission accessible to a wider audience of users. By developing a visual interface for a suite of eight models, users can develop an understanding of the impact of various modelling assumptions – especially mixing patterns – on the trajectory of an epidemic and the impact of control interventions, without having to directly deal with the complexity of mathematical equations and programming languages. Models are compartmental or individual-based, deterministic or stochastic, and assume homogeneous or heterogeneous-mixing patterns (with the probability of transmission depending on the underlying structure of contact networks, or the spatial distribution of hosts. This application is intended to be used by scientists teaching mathematical modelling short courses to non

  2. Clozapine and GABA transmission in schizophrenia disease models: establishing principles to guide treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, William T; O'Shea, Sean D

    2015-06-01

    Schizophrenia disease models are necessary to elucidate underlying changes and to establish new therapeutic strategies towards a stage where drug efficacy in schizophrenia (against all classes of symptoms) can be predicted. Here we summarise the evidence for a GABA dysfunction in schizophrenia and review the functional neuroanatomy of five pathways implicated in schizophrenia, namely the mesocortical, mesolimbic, ventral striopallidal, dorsal striopallidal and perforant pathways including the role of local GABA transmission and we describe the effect of clozapine on local neurotransmitter release. This review also evaluates psychotropic drug-induced, neurodevelopmental and environmental disease models including their compatibility with brain microdialysis. The validity of disease models including face, construct, etiological and predictive validity and how these models constitute theories about this illness is also addressed. A disease model based on the effect of the abrupt withdrawal of clozapine on GABA release is also described. The review concludes that while no single animal model is entirely successful in reproducing schizophreniform symptomatology, a disease model based on an ability to prevent and/or reverse the abrupt clozapine discontinuation-induced changes in GABA release in brain regions implicated in schizophrenia may be useful for hypothesis testing and for in vivo screening of novel ligands not limited to a single pharmacological class. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Simulating the spread of malaria using a generic transmission model for mosquito-borne infectious diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kon, Cynthia Mui Lian; Labadin, Jane

    2016-06-01

    Malaria is a critical infection caused by parasites which are spread to humans through mosquito bites. Approximately half of the world's population is in peril of getting infected by malaria. Mosquito-borne diseases have a standard behavior where they are transmitted in the same manner, only through vector mosquito. Taking this into account, a generic spatial-temporal model for transmission of multiple mosquito-borne diseases had been formulated. Our interest is to reproduce the actual cases of different mosquito-borne diseases using the generic model and then predict future cases so as to improve control and target measures competently. In this paper, we utilize notified weekly malaria cases in four districts in Sarawak, Malaysia, namely Kapit, Song, Belaga and Marudi. The actual cases for 36 weeks, which is from week 39 in 2012 to week 22 in 2013, are compared with simulations of the generic spatial-temporal transmission mosquito-borne diseases model. We observe that the simulation results display corresponding result to the actual malaria cases in the four districts.

  4. Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkle, Jerod A.; Cross, Paul C.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Cole, Eric K.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2018-01-01

    Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission.Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [Cervus Canadensis] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts.Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands.Synthesis and applications. Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate

  5. Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schley, David; Whittle, Sophie; Taylor, Michael; Kiss, Istvan Zoltan

    2012-09-15

    Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution. Individual based network models are considered together with one- and two-class compartmental models, for which the final epidemic size is calculated as a function of the probability of disease transmission occurring during a given physical contact between two individuals. For numerical results the special cases of a viral disease with a fast recovery rate (foot-and-mouth disease) and a bacterial disease with a slow recovery rate (brucellosis) amongst sheep are considered. Quantitative results from observational studies of physical contact amongst domestic sheep are applied and results from the differently structured flocks (ewes with newborn lambs, ewes with nearly weaned lambs and ewes only) compared. These indicate that the breeding cycle leads to significant changes in the expected basic reproduction ratio of diseases. The observed heterogeneity of contacts amongst animals is best captured by full network simulations, although simple compartmental models describe the key features of an outbreak but, as expected, often overestimate the speed of an outbreak. Here the weights of contacts are heterogeneous, with many low weight links. However, due to the well-connected nature of the networks, this has little effect and differences between models remain small. These results indicate that simple compartmental models can be a useful tool for modelling real-world flocks; their applicability will be greater still for more homogeneously mixed livestock, which could be promoted by higher intensity farming practices. Copyright © 2012

  6. Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Tony; Fournié, Guillaume; Gupta, Sunetra; Seeley, Janet

    2015-01-01

    Incorporation of 'social' variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection - a highly social process in human populations - may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Émile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of 'social currents'. Such 'currents' are what we might today describe as 'emergent properties', specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to represent complex social and economic processes bearing on infectious disease transmission.

  7. Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

    2017-02-01

    Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

  8. Sexual transmission of Lyme disease: challenging the tickborne disease paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Raphael B; Middelveen, Marianne J

    2015-01-01

    Lyme disease caused by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi has become a major worldwide epidemic. In this article, we explore the clinical, epidemiological and experimental evidence for sexual transmission of Lyme disease in animal models and humans. Although the likelihood of sexual transmission of the Lyme spirochete remains speculative, the possibility of Lyme disease transmission via intimate human contact merits further study.

  9. A model-based clustering method to detect infectious disease transmission outbreaks from sequence variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary M McCloskey

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Clustering infections by genetic similarity is a popular technique for identifying potential outbreaks of infectious disease, in part because sequences are now routinely collected for clinical management of many infections. A diverse number of nonparametric clustering methods have been developed for this purpose. These methods are generally intuitive, rapid to compute, and readily scale with large data sets. However, we have found that nonparametric clustering methods can be biased towards identifying clusters of diagnosis-where individuals are sampled sooner post-infection-rather than the clusters of rapid transmission that are meant to be potential foci for public health efforts. We develop a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering based on fitting a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP, which represents the evolution of transmission rates along the tree relating different infections. We evaluated this model-based method alongside five nonparametric clustering methods using both simulated and actual HIV sequence data sets. For simulated clusters of rapid transmission, the MMPP clustering method obtained higher mean sensitivity (85% and specificity (91% than the nonparametric methods. When we applied these clustering methods to published sequences from a study of HIV-1 genetic clusters in Seattle, USA, we found that the MMPP method categorized about half (46% as many individuals to clusters compared to the other methods. Furthermore, the mean internal branch lengths that approximate transmission rates were significantly shorter in clusters extracted using MMPP, but not by other methods. We determined that the computing time for the MMPP method scaled linearly with the size of trees, requiring about 30 seconds for a tree of 1,000 tips and about 20 minutes for 50,000 tips on a single computer. This new approach to genetic clustering has significant implications for the application of pathogen sequence analysis to public health, where

  10. Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F Brouwer

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models provide a mechanistic approach to examining environmental interventions for outbreaks, such as water treatment or surface decontamination. The shift from the classical SIR framework to one incorporating the environment requires codifying the relationship between exposure to environmental pathogens and infection, i.e. the dose-response relationship. Much of the work characterizing the functional forms of dose-response relationships has used statistical fit to experimental data. However, there has been little research examining the consequences of the choice of functional form in the context of transmission dynamics. To this end, we identify four properties of dose-response functions that should be considered when selecting a functional form: low-dose linearity, scalability, concavity, and whether it is a single-hit model. We find that i middle- and high-dose data do not constrain the low-dose response, and different dose-response forms that are equally plausible given the data can lead to significant differences in simulated outbreak dynamics; ii the choice of how to aggregate continuous exposure into discrete doses can impact the modeled force of infection; iii low-dose linear, concave functions allow the basic reproduction number to control global dynamics; and iv identifiability analysis offers a way to manage multiple sources of uncertainty and leverage environmental monitoring to make inference about infectivity. By applying an environmentally mediated infectious disease model to the 1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak, we demonstrate that environmental monitoring allows for inference regarding the infectivity of the pathogen and thus improves our ability to identify outbreak characteristics such as pathogen strain.

  11. Modeling freshwater snail habitat suitability and areas of potential snail-borne disease transmission in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Jørgensen, Aslak; Kabatereine, N B

    2006-01-01

    -borne disease transmission areas. Furthermore, knowledge of abiotic factors affecting intra-molluscan parasitic development can be used to make "masks" based on remotely sensed climatic data, and these can in turn be used to refine these predictions. We used data from a recent freshwater snail survey from......Geographic information system (GIS-based modeling of an intermediate host snail species environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its spatial distribution. When other data are lacking, this can be used as a rough spatial prediction of potential snail...... Uganda, environmental data and the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to map the potential distribution of snail species known to act as intermediate hosts of several human and animal parasites. The results suggest that large areas of Uganda are suitable habitats for many of these snail...

  12. Modeling Marek's disease virus transmission: A framework for evaluating the impact of farming practices and evolution

    OpenAIRE

    David A. Kennedy; Patricia A. Dunn; Andrew F. Read

    2018-01-01

    Marek's disease virus (MDV) is a pathogen of chickens whose control has twice been undermined by pathogen evolution. Disease ecology is believed to be the main driver of this evolution, yet mathematical models of MDV disease ecology have never been confronted with data to test their reliability. Here, we develop a suite of MDV models that differ in the ecological mechanisms they include. We fit these models with maximum likelihood using iterated filtering in ‘pomp’ to data on MDV concentratio...

  13. Lyme Disease Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... not known to transmit Lyme disease include Lone star ticks ( Amblyomma americanum ), the American dog tick ( Dermacentor ... of Vector-Borne Diseases (DVBD) Email Recommend Tweet YouTube Instagram Listen Watch RSS ABOUT About CDC Jobs ...

  14. When More Transmission Equals Less Disease: Reconciling the Disconnect between Disease Hotspots and Parasite Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Andrew W.; Magori, Krisztian; White, Brad A.; Stallknecht, David E.

    2013-01-01

    The assumed straightforward connection between transmission intensity and disease occurrence impacts surveillance and control efforts along with statistical methodology, including parameter inference and niche modeling. Many infectious disease systems have the potential for this connection to be more complicated–although demonstrating this in any given disease system has remained elusive. Hemorrhagic disease (HD) is one of the most important diseases of white-tailed deer and is caused by viruses in the Orbivirus genus. Like many infectious diseases, the probability or severity of disease increases with age (after loss of maternal antibodies) and the probability of disease is lower upon re-infection compared to first infection (based on cross-immunity between virus strains). These broad criteria generate a prediction that disease occurrence is maximized at intermediate levels of transmission intensity. Using published US field data, we first fit a statistical model to predict disease occurrence as a function of seroprevalence (a proxy for transmission intensity), demonstrating that states with intermediate seroprevalence have the highest level of case reporting. We subsequently introduce an independently parameterized mechanistic model supporting the theory that high case reporting should come from areas with intermediate levels of transmission. This is the first rigorous demonstration of this phenomenon and illustrates that variation in transmission rate (e.g. along an ecologically-controlled transmission gradient) can create cryptic refuges for infectious diseases. PMID:23579922

  15. Training the Next Generation of Scientists: System Dynamics Modeling of Chagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis) transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, P.; Hulse, A.; Harder, H. R.; Pierce, L. A.; Rizzo, D.; Hanley, J.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Justi, S.; Monroy, C.

    2015-12-01

    A computational simulation has been designed as an investigative case study by high school students to introduce system dynamics modeling into high school curriculum. This case study approach leads users through the forensics necessary to diagnose an unknown disease in a Central American village. This disease, Chagas, is endemic to 21 Latin American countries. The CDC estimates that of the 110 million people living in areas with the disease, 8 million are infected, with as many as 300,000 US cases. Chagas is caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, and is spread via blood feeding insect (vectors), that feed on vertebrates and live in crevasses in the walls and roofs of adobe homes. One-third of the infected people will develop chronic Chagas who are asymptomatic for years before their heart or GI tract become enlarged resulting in death. The case study has three parts. Students play the role of WHO field investigators and work collaboratively to: 1) use genetics to identify the host(s) and vector of the disease 2) use a STELLA™ SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) system dynamics model to study Chagas at the village scale and 3) develop management strategies. The simulations identify mitigation strategies known as Ecohealth Interventions (e.g., home improvements using local materials) to help stakeholders test and compare multiple optima. High school students collaborated with researchers from the University of Vermont, Loyola University and Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala, working in labs, interviewing researchers, and incorporating mulitple field data as part of a NSF-funded multiyear grant. The model displays stable equilibria of hosts, vectors, and disease-states. Sensitivity analyses show measures of household condition and presence of vertebrates were significant leverage points, supporting other findings by the University research team. The village-scale model explores multiple solutions to disease mitigation for the purpose of producing

  16. Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise Gopherus agassizii: implications for disease modelling and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Most directly transmitted infections require some form of close contact between infectious and susceptible hosts to spread. Often disease models assume contacts are equal and use mean field estimates of transmission probability for all interactions with infectious hosts.

  17. An epidemic model for the interactions between thermal regime of rivers and transmission of Proliferative Kidney Disease in salmonid fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carraro, Luca; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Strepparava, Nicole; Hartikainen, Hanna; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans (Fredericella sultana) and salmonids as primary and secondary hosts, respectively. Incidence and mortality, which can reach up to 90-100%, are known to be strongly related to water temperature. PKD has been present in brown trout population for a long time but has recently increased rapidly in incidence and severity causing a decline in fish catches in many countries. In addition, environmental changes are feared to cause PKD outbreaks at higher latitude and altitude regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development. This calls for a better comprehension of the interactions between disease dynamics and the thermal regime of rivers, in order to possibly devise strategies for disease management. In this perspective, a spatially explicit model of PKD epidemiology in riverine host metacommunities is proposed. The model aims at summarizing the knowledge on the modes of transmission of the disease and the life-cycle of the parasite, making the connection between temperature and epidemiological parameters explicit. The model accounts for both local population and disease dynamics of bryozoans and fish and hydrodynamic dispersion of the parasite spores and hosts along the river network. The model is time-hybrid, coupling inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics, the former being described in a continuous time domain, the latter seen as time steps of a discrete time domain. In order to test the model, a case study is conducted in river Wigger (Cantons of Aargau and Lucerne, Switzerland), where data about water temperature, brown trout and bryozoan populations and PKD prevalence are being collected.

  18. A rigorous approach to investigating common assumptions about disease transmission: Process algebra as an emerging modelling methodology for epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaig, Chris; Begon, Mike; Norman, Rachel; Shankland, Carron

    2011-03-01

    Changing scale, for example, the ability to move seamlessly from an individual-based model to a population-based model, is an important problem in many fields. In this paper, we introduce process algebra as a novel solution to this problem in the context of models of infectious disease spread. Process algebra allows us to describe a system in terms of the stochastic behaviour of individuals, and is a technique from computer science. We review the use of process algebra in biological systems, and the variety of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques available. The analysis illustrated here solves the changing scale problem: from the individual behaviour we can rigorously derive equations to describe the mean behaviour of the system at the level of the population. The biological problem investigated is the transmission of infection, and how this relates to individual interactions.

  19. Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajat Malik

    Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

  20. Effect of human movement on airborne disease transmission in an airplane cabin: study using numerical modeling and quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zhuyang; To, Gin Nam Sze; Fu, Sau Chung; Chao, Christopher Yu-Hang; Weng, Wenguo; Huang, Quanyi

    2014-08-06

    Airborne transmission of respiratory infectious disease in indoor environment (e.g. airplane cabin, conference room, hospital, isolated room and inpatient ward) may cause outbreaks of infectious diseases, which may lead to many infection cases and significantly influences on the public health. This issue has received more and more attentions from academics. This work investigates the influence of human movement on the airborne transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in an airplane cabin by using an accurate human model in numerical simulation and comparing the influences of different human movement behaviors on disease transmission. The Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is adopted to simulate the dispersion and deposition of the expiratory aerosols. The dose-response model is used to assess the infection risks of the occupants. The likelihood analysis is performed as a hypothesis test on the input parameters and different human movement pattern assumptions. An in-flight SARS outbreak case is used for investigation. A moving person with different moving speeds is simulated to represent the movement behaviors. A digital human model was used to represent the detailed profile of the occupants, which was obtained by scanning a real thermal manikin using the 3D laser scanning system. The analysis results indicate that human movement can strengthen the downward transport of the aerosols, significantly reduce the overall deposition and removal rate of the suspended aerosols and increase the average infection risk in the cabin. The likelihood estimation result shows that the risk assessment results better fit the outcome of the outbreak case when the movements of the seated passengers are considered. The intake fraction of the moving person is significantly higher than most of the seated passengers. The infection risk distribution in the airplane cabin highly depends on the movement behaviors of the passengers and the index patient. The walking activities of the crew

  1. Towards an age-dependent transmission model of acquired and sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Pedro-Cuesta, Jesús; Mahillo-Fernandez, Ignacio; Calero, Miguel; Rábano, Alberto; Cruz, Mabel; Siden, Åke; Martínez-Martín, Pablo; Laursen, Henning; Ruiz-Tovar, María; Mølbak, Kåre

    2014-01-01

    Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) might be transmitted by surgery. The purpose of this study was to investigate potential susceptibility to sCJD from surgery at juvenile age and in early adulthood. From Danish and Swedish national registries we identified 167 definite and probable sCJD cases with onset from 1987 through 2003, and 835 age-, sex- and residence-matched controls along with their surgical histories. Main, anatomically or etiologically classified surgical procedures followed by a ≥20-year lag were analyzed using logistic regression, and stratified by age at first-registered surgical discharge. The risk of having a diagnosis of CJD depended strongly on age at first surgery with odds ratio (OR) of 12.80 (95% CI 2.56-64.0) in patients <30 years, 3.04 (95% 1.26-7.33) in 30-39 years, and 1.75 (95% CI 0.89-3.45) in ≥40 years, for anatomically classified surgical procedures. Similar figures were obtained for etiologically classified surgical procedures. Risk of surgical-acquired sCJD depends on age at exposure; this pattern is similar to age-specific profiles reported for CJD accidentally transmitted by human pituitary-derived growth hormone and susceptibility curves for variant CJD estimated after adjustment for dietary exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. There might be an age-at-exposure-related susceptibility to acquire all CJD forms, including sCJD from routine surgery.

  2. Echinococcosis : disease, detection and transmission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Craig, P.S.; Rogan, M T; Campos-Ponce, M

    2003-01-01

    Echinococcosis is one of the world's most geographically widespread parasitic zoonoses, with transmission occurring in tropical, temperate and arctic biomes. Most human infections are due to Echinococcus granulosus transmitted between domestic dogs and livestock, but this cosmopolitan species also

  3. The importance of age dependent mortality and the extrinsic incubation period in models of mosquito-borne disease transmission and control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve E Bellan

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Nearly all mathematical models of vector-borne diseases have assumed that vectors die at constant rates. However, recent empirical research suggests that mosquito mortality rates are frequently age dependent. This work develops a simple mathematical model to assess how relaxing the classical assumption of constant mortality affects the predicted effectiveness of anti-vectorial interventions. The effectiveness of mosquito control when mosquitoes die at age dependent rates was also compared across different extrinsic incubation periods. Compared to a more realistic age dependent model, constant mortality models overestimated the sensitivity of disease transmission to interventions that reduce mosquito survival. Interventions that reduce mosquito survival were also found to be slightly less effective when implemented in systems with shorter EIPs. Future transmission models that examine anti-vectorial interventions should incorporate realistic age dependent mortality rates.

  4. Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease): Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search the CDC Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease) Note: Javascript is disabled or is ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease) What is Ebola Virus Disease? ...

  5. Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (Prion Diseases)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... This research is aimed at determining how abnormal prion proteins lead to disease, at finding better tests ... This research is aimed at determining how abnormal prion proteins lead to disease, at finding better tests ...

  6. Non-malignant disease mortality in meat workers: a model for studying the role of zoonotic transmissible agents in non-malignant chronic diseases in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, E S; Zhou, Y; Sall, M; Faramawi, M El; Shah, N; Christopher, A; Lewis, N

    2007-12-01

    Current research efforts have mainly concentrated on evaluating the role of substances present in animal food in the aetiology of chronic diseases in humans, with relatively little attention given to evaluating the role of transmissible agents that are also present. Meat workers are exposed to a variety of transmissible agents present in food animals and their products. This study investigates mortality from non-malignant diseases in workers with these exposures. A cohort mortality study was conducted between 1949 and 1989, of 8520 meat workers in a union in Baltimore, Maryland, who worked in manufacturing plants where animals were killed or processed, and who had high exposures to transmissible agents. Mortality in meat workers was compared with that in a control group of 6081 workers in the same union, and also with the US general population. Risk was estimated by proportional mortality and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative SMR. A clear excess of mortality from septicaemia, subarachnoid haemorrhage, chronic nephritis, acute and subacute endocarditis, functional diseases of the heart, and decreased risk of mortality from pre-cerebral, cerebral artery stenosis were observed in meat workers when compared to the control group or to the US general population. The authors hypothesise that zoonotic transmissible agents present in food animals and their products may be responsible for the occurrence of some cases of circulatory, neurological and other diseases in meat workers, and possibly in the general population exposed to these agents.

  7. A macroecological characterization of infectious disease transmission:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen-Ranberg, Emilie Ulrikka

    2017-01-01

    Presentation: Per M. Jensen*, Miguel L. Grilo, Christian B. Pipper, Emilie U. Andersen-Ranberg. A macroecological characterization of infectious disease transmission: the cases of Mycobacterium and Leptospira sp. The 2017 OIKOS meeting, 10th -11th March 2017, Copenhagen, Denmark......Presentation: Per M. Jensen*, Miguel L. Grilo, Christian B. Pipper, Emilie U. Andersen-Ranberg. A macroecological characterization of infectious disease transmission: the cases of Mycobacterium and Leptospira sp. The 2017 OIKOS meeting, 10th -11th March 2017, Copenhagen, Denmark...

  8. Stability and disease persistence in an age-structured SIS epidemic model with vertical transmission and proportionate mixing assumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Doma, M.

    2001-02-01

    The stability of the endemic equilibrium of an SIS age-structured epidemic model of a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the force of infection is of proportionate mixing assumption type. We also investigate the uniform weak disease persistence. (author)

  9. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Asher

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics. Keywords: Ebola, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference

  10. Global attractivity and permanence of a stage-structured pest management SI model with time delay and diseased pest impulsive transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiao Jianjun; Meng Xinzhu; Chen Lansun

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a stage-structured pest management SI model with time delay and diseased pests impulsive transmission. We obtain the sufficient conditions of the global attractivity of pest-extinction boundary periodic solution and the permanence of the system. We also prove that all solutions of the system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Our results provide a reliable tactic basis for the practice of pest management

  11. Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

    2015-08-01

    A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

  12. A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Waema Mbogo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

  13. Molecular Modeling of Prion Transmission to Humans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Levavasseur

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Using different prion strains, such as the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease agent and the atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents, and using transgenic mice expressing human or bovine prion protein, we assessed the reliability of protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA to model interspecies and genetic barriers to prion transmission. We compared our PMCA results with in vivo transmission data characterized by attack rates, i.e., the percentage of inoculated mice that developed the disease. Using 19 seed/substrate combinations, we observed that a significant PMCA amplification was only obtained when the mouse line used as substrate is susceptible to the corresponding strain. Our results suggest that PMCA provides a useful tool to study genetic barriers to transmission and to study the zoonotic potential of emerging prion strains.

  14. Modeling of Viral Aerosol Transmission and Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Khalid, Maryam; Amin, Osama; Ahmed, Sajid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this work is to investigate the spread mechanism of diseases in the atmosphere as an engineering problem. Among the viral transmission mechanisms that do not include physical contact, aerosol transmission is the most significant mode of transmission where virus-laden droplets are carried over long distances by wind. In this work, we focus on aerosol transmission of virus and introduce the idea of viewing virus transmission through aerosols and their transport as a molecular communication problem, where one has no control over transmission source but a robust receiver can be designed using nano-biosensors. To investigate this idea, a complete system is presented and end-toend mathematical model for the aerosol transmission channel is derived under certain constraints and boundary conditions. In addition to transmitter and channel, a receiver architecture composed of air sampler and Silicon Nanowire field effect transistor is also discussed. Furthermore, a detection problem is formulated for which maximum likelihood decision rule and the corresponding missed detection probability is discussed. At the end, simulation results are presented to investigate the parameters that affect the performance and justify the feasibility of proposed setup in related applications.

  15. A mathematical model for the control of carrier-dependent infectious diseases with direct transmission and time delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Misra, A.K.; Mishra, S.N.; Pathak, A.L.; Srivastava, P.K.; Chandra, Peeyush

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a non-linear delay mathematical model for the control of carrier-dependent infectious diseases through insecticides is proposed and analyzed. In the modeling process, it is assumed that disease spreads due to direct contact between susceptibles and infectives as well as through carriers (indirect contact). Further, it is assumed that insecticides are used to kill carriers and the rate of introduction of insecticides is proportional to the density of carriers with some time lag. The model analysis suggests that as delay in using insecticides exceeds some critical value, the system loses its stability and Hopf-bifurcation occurs. The direction, stability and period of the bifurcating periodic solutions arising through Hopf-bifurcation are also analyzed using normal form concept and center manifold theory. Numerical simulation is carried out to confirm the obtained analytical results

  16. Relevance of indirect transmission for wildlife disease surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Lange

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological models of infectious diseases are essential tools in support of risk assessment, surveillance design and contingency planning in public and animal health. Direct pathogen transmission from host to host is an essential process of each host-pathogen system and respective epidemiological modelling concepts. It is widely accepted that numerous diseases involve indirect transmission through pathogens shed by infectious hosts to their environment. However, epidemiological models largely do not represent pathogen persistence outside the host explicitly. We hypothesize that this simplification might bias management-related model predictions for disease agents that can persist outside their host for a certain time span. We adapted an individual-based, spatially explicit epidemiological model that can mimic both transmission processes. One version explicitly simulated indirect pathogen transmission through a contaminated environment. A second version simulated direct host-to-host transmission only. We aligned the model variants by the transmission potential per infectious host (i.e. basic reproductive number R0 and the spatial transmission kernel of the infection to allow unbiased comparison of predictions. The quantitative model results are provided for the example of surveillance plans for early detection of foot-and-mouth disease in wild boar, a social host.We applied systematic sampling strategies on the serological status of randomly selected host individuals in both models. We compared between the model variants the time to detection and the area affected prior to detection, measures that strongly influence mitigation costs. Moreover, the ideal sampling strategy to detect the infection in a given time frame was compared between both models.We found the simplified, direct transmission model to underestimate necessary sample size by up to one order of magnitude, but to overestimate the area put under control measures. Thus, the model

  17. Pets, Purity and Pollution: Why Conventional Models of Disease Transmission Do Not Work for Pet Rat Owners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin, Charlotte; Perkins, Elizabeth; Watkins, Francine; Christley, Robert

    2017-12-07

    In the United Kingdom, following the emergence of Seoul hantavirus in pet rat owners in 2012, public health authorities tried to communicate the risk of this zoonotic disease, but had limited success. To explore this lack of engagement with health advice, we conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with pet rat owners and analysed them using a grounded theory approach. The findings from these interviews suggest that rat owners construct their pets as different from wild rats, and by elevating the rat to the status of a pet, the powerful associations that rats have with dirt and disease are removed. Removing the rat from the contaminated outside world moves their pet rat from being 'out of place' to 'in place'. A concept of 'bounded purity' keeps the rat protected within the home, allowing owners to interact with their pet, safe in the knowledge that it is clean and disease-free. Additionally, owners constructed a 'hierarchy of purity' for their pets, and it is on this structure of disease and risk that owners base their behaviour, not conventional biomedical models of disease.

  18. Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

    2016-10-01

    SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

    2011-12-01

    Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

  20. Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Shi Chen; Brad J. White; Michael W. Sanderson; David E. Amrine; Amiyaal Ilany; Cristina Lanzas

    2014-01-01

    Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmissio...

  1. Malaria transmission in Tripura: Disease distribution & determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dev, Vas; Adak, Tridibes; Singh, Om P; Nanda, Nutan; Baidya, Bimal K

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in Tripura and focal disease outbreaks are of frequent occurrence. The state is co-endemic for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and transmission is perennial and persistent. The present study was aimed to review data on disease distribution to prioritize high-risk districts, and to study seasonal prevalence of disease vectors and their bionomical characteristics to help formulate vector species-specific interventions for malaria control. Data on malaria morbidity in the State were reviewed retrospectively (2008-2012) for understanding disease distribution and transmission dynamics. Cross-sectional mass blood surveys were conducted in malaria endemic villages of South Tripura district to ascertain the prevalence of malaria and proportions of parasite species. Mosquito collections were made in human dwellings of malaria endemic villages aiming at vector incrimination and to study relative abundance, resting and feeding preferences, and their present susceptibility status to DDT. The study showed that malaria was widely prevalent and P. falciparum was the predominant infection (>90%), the remaining were P. vivax cases. The disease distribution, however, was uneven with large concentration of cases in districts of South Tripura and Dhalai coinciding with vast forest cover and tribal populations. Both Anopheles minimus s.s. and An. baimaii were recorded to be prevalent and observed to be highly anthropophagic and susceptible to DDT. Of these, An. minimus was incriminated (sporozoite infection rate 4.92%), and its bionomical characteristics revealed this species to be largely indoor resting and endophagic. For effective control of malaria in the state, it is recommended that diseases surveillance should be robust, and vector control interventions including DDT spray coverage, mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets/ long-lasting insecticidal nets should be intensified prioritizing population groups most at risk to

  2. Deer density and disease prevalence influence transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in White-tailed Deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Michael D.; Richards, Bryan J.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul; Nicholas S. Keuler,; Timothy R. Van Deelen,

    2013-01-01

    Host-parasite dynamics and strategies for managing infectious diseases of wildlife depend on the functional relationship between disease transmission rates and host density. However, the disease transmission function is rarely known for free-living wildlife, leading to uncertainty regarding the impacts of diseases on host populations and effective control actions. We evaluated the influence of deer density, landscape features, and soil clay content on transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in young (disease prevalence and density of infected deer, performed better than simple density- and frequency-dependent models. Our results indicate a combination of social structure, non-linear relationships between infectious contact and deer density, and distribution of disease among groups are important factors driving CWD infection in young deer. The landscape covariates % deciduous forest cover and forest edge density also were positively associated with infection rates, but soil clay content had no measurable influences on CWD transmission. Lack of strong density-dependent transmission rates indicates that controlling CWD by reducing deer density will be difficult. The consequences of non-linear disease transmission and aggregation of disease on cervid populations deserves further consideration.

  3. Using Dynamic Transmission Modeling to Determine Vaccination Coverage Rate Based on 5-Year Economic Burden of Infectious Disease: An Example of Pneumococcal Vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yu-Wen; Wu, Hsin; Chang, Chee-Jen

    2015-05-01

    Vaccination can reduce the incidence and mortality of an infectious disease and thus increase the years of life and productivity for the entire society. But when determining the vaccination coverage rate, its economic burden is usually not taken into account. This article aimed to use a dynamic transmission modeling (DTM), which is based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model and is a system of differential equations, to find the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the economic burden of an infectious disease. Vaccination for pneumococcal diseases was used as an example to demonstrate the main purpose. 23-Valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have shown their cost-effectiveness in elderly and children, respectively. Scenarios analysis of PPV23 to elderly aged 65+ years and of PCV13 to children aged 0 to 4 years was applied to assess the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the 5-year economic burden. Model parameters were derived from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, government data, and published literature. Various vaccination coverage rates, the vaccine efficacy, and all epidemiologic parameters were substituted into DTM, and all differential equations were solved in R Statistical Software. If the coverage rate of PPV23 for the elderly and of PCV13 for the children both reach 50%, the economic burden due to pneumococcal disease will be acceptable. This article provided an alternative perspective from the economic burden of diseases to obtain a vaccination coverage rate using the DTM. This will provide valuable information for vaccination policy decision makers. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysis of a malaria model with mosquito-dependent transmission ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    model for the spread of malaria in human and mosquito population. ... tures, high humidity and water bodies allow mosquito and parasites to reproduce. The ... understand the main parameters in the transmission of the disease and to develop ...

  5. Research on an infectious disease transmission by flocking birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Mingsheng; Mao, Xinjun; Guessoum, Zahia

    2013-01-01

    The swarm intelligence is becoming a hot topic. The flocking of birds is a natural phenomenon, which is formed and organized without central or external controls for some benefits (e.g., reduction of energy consummation). However, the flocking also has some negative effects on the human, as the infectious disease H7N9 will easily be transmited from the denser flocking birds to the human. Zombie-city model has been proposed to help analyzing and modeling the flocking birds and the artificial society. This paper focuses on the H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and from the flocking birds to the human. And some interesting results have been shown: (1) only some simple rules could result in an emergence such as the flocking; (2) the minimum distance between birds could affect H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and even affect the virus transmissions from the flocking birds to the human.

  6. Identifying Nodes of Transmission in Disease Diffusion Through Social Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, David Sebastian

    The spread of infectious diseases can be described in terms of three interrelated components: interaction, movement, and scale. Transmission between individuals requires some form of interaction, which is dependent on the pathogen, to occur. Diseases spread through the movement of their hosts; they spread across many spatial scales from local neighborhoods to countries, or temporal scales from days to years, or periodic intervals. Prior research into the spread of disease have examined diffusion processes retrospectively at regional or country levels, or developed differential equation or simulation models of the dynamics of disease transmission. While some of the more recent models incorporate all three components, they are limited in the way they understand where interactions occur. The focus has been on home or work, including contact with family or coworkers. The models reflect a lack of knowledge about how transmissions are made at specific locations in time, so-called nodes of transmission. That is, how individuals' intersections in time and space function in disease transmission. This project sought to use the three factors of interaction, movement, and scale to better understand the spread of disease in terms of the place of interaction called the node of transmission. The overarching objective of this research was: how can nodes of transmission be identified through individual activity spaces incorporating the three factors of infectious disease spread: interaction, movement, and scale?. This objective fed into three main sub-objectives: defining nodes of transmission, developing an appropriate methodology to identifying nodes of transmission, and applying it using geotagged social media data from Twitter. To develop an appropriate framework, this research relied on time geography, and traditional disease. This particularly relied on the idea of bundling to create the nodes, and a nesting effect that integrated scale. The data source used to identify nodes

  7. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

  8. Simulation of between-farm transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario, Canada using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Krishna K; Revie, Crawford W; Hurnik, Daniel; Poljak, Zvonimir; Sanchez, Javier

    2015-03-01

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), a viral disease of swine, has major economic impacts on the swine industry. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a spatial, stochastic, farm level state-transition modeling framework originally developed to simulate highly contagious and foreign livestock diseases. The objectives of this study were to develop a model to simulate between-farm spread of a homologous strain of PRRS virus in Ontario swine farms via direct (animal movement) and indirect (sharing of trucks between farms) contacts using the NAADSM and to compare the patterns and extent of outbreak under different simulated conditions. A total of 2552 swine farms in Ontario province were allocated to each census division of Ontario and geo-locations of the farms were randomly generated within the agriculture land of each Census Division. Contact rates among different production types were obtained using pig movement information from four regions in Canada. A total of 24 scenarios were developed involving various direct (movement of infected animals) and indirect (pig transportation trucks) contact parameters in combination with alternating the production type of the farm in which the infection was seeded. Outbreaks were simulated for one year with 1000 replications. The median number of farms infected, proportion of farms with multiple outbreaks and time to reach the peak epidemic were used to compare the size, progression and extent of outbreaks. Scenarios involving spread only by direct contact between farms resulted in outbreaks where the median percentage of infected farms ranged from 31.5 to 37% of all farms. In scenarios with both direct and indirect contact, the median percentage of infected farms increased to a range from 41.6 to 48.6%. Furthermore, scenarios with both direct and indirect contact resulted in a 44% increase in median epidemic size when compared to the direct contact scenarios. Incorporation of both animal

  9. Distinct transmissibility features of TSE sources derived from ruminant prion diseases by the oral route in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Noël Arsac

    Full Text Available Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases associated with a misfolded form of host-encoded prion protein (PrP. Some of them, such as classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle (BSE, transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME, kuru and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, are acquired by the oral route exposure to infected tissues. We investigated the possible transmission by the oral route of a panel of strains derived from ruminant prion diseases in a transgenic mouse model (TgOvPrP4 overexpressing the ovine prion protein (A136R154Q171 under the control of the neuron-specific enolase promoter. Sources derived from Nor98, CH1641 or 87V scrapie sources, as well as sources derived from L-type BSE or cattle-passaged TME, failed to transmit by the oral route, whereas those derived from classical BSE and classical scrapie were successfully transmitted. Apart from a possible effect of passage history of the TSE agent in the inocula, this implied the occurrence of subtle molecular changes in the protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres following oral transmission that can raises concerns about our ability to correctly identify sheep that might be orally infected by the BSE agent in the field. Our results provide proof of principle that transgenic mouse models can be used to examine the transmissibility of TSE agents by the oral route, providing novel insights regarding the pathogenesis of prion diseases.

  10. Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilcke, Joke; Chapman, Ruth; Atchison, Christina; Cromer, Deborah; Johnson, Helen; Willem, Lander; Cox, Martin; Edmunds, William John; Jit, Mark

    2015-07-01

    Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action. A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%-63%) and 44% (30%-62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available. Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Quantification of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus Transmission Rates Using Published Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goris, N.E.; Eble, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Clercq, K.

    2009-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is an extremely infectious and devastating disease affecting all species of cloven-hoofed animals. To understand the epidemiology of the causative virus and predict viral transmission dynamics, quantified transmission parameters are essential to decision makers and modellers

  12. Transmission of infectious diseases en route to habitat hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, Julio; Walsh, Peter D; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Raymond, Michel; Caillaud, Damien

    2012-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases in wildlife populations is influenced by patterns of between-host contacts. Habitat "hotspots"--places attracting a large numbers of individuals or social groups--can significantly alter contact patterns and, hence, disease propagation. Research on the importance of habitat hotspots in wildlife epidemiology has primarily focused on how inter-individual contacts occurring at the hotspot itself increase disease transmission. However, in territorial animals, epidemiologically important contacts may primarily occur as animals cross through territories of conspecifics en route to habitat hotspots. So far, the phenomenon has received little attention. Here, we investigate the importance of these contacts in the case where infectious individuals keep visiting the hotspots and in the case where these individuals are not able to travel to the hotspot any more. We developed a simulation epidemiological model to investigate both cases in a scenario when transmission at the hotspot does not occur. We find that (i) hotspots still exacerbate epidemics, (ii) when infectious individuals do not travel to the hotspot, the most vulnerable individuals are those residing at intermediate distances from the hotspot rather than nearby, and (iii) the epidemiological vulnerability of a population is the highest when the number of hotspots is intermediate. By altering animal movements in their vicinity, habitat hotspots can thus strongly increase the spread of infectious diseases, even when disease transmission does not occur at the hotspot itself. Interestingly, when animals only visit the nearest hotspot, creating additional artificial hotspots, rather than reducing their number, may be an efficient disease control measure.

  13. Transmission Model of Hepatitis B Virus with the Migration Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Altaf Khan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a globally infectious disease. Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission is an interesting research area. In this paper, we present characteristics of HBV virus transmission in the form of a mathematical model. We analyzed the effect of immigrants in the model to study the effect of immigrants for the host population. We added the following flow parameters: “the transmission between migrated and exposed class” and “the transmission between migrated and acute class.” With these new features, we obtained a compartment model of six differential equations. First, we find the basic threshold quantity Ro and then find the local asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we find the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Previous similar publications have not added the kind of information about the numerical results of the model. In our case, from numerical simulation, a detailed discussion of the parameters and their numerical results is presented. We claim that with these assumptions and by adding the migrated class, the model informs policy for governments, to be aware of the immigrants and subject them to tests about the disease status. Immigrants for short visits and students should be subjected to tests to reduce the number of immigrants with disease.

  14. Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Chowell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who seek hospitalization together with hospital capacity to achieve epidemic control. However, further modeling efforts of EVD transmission and control in West Africa should utilize the spatial-temporal patterns of spread in the region by incorporating spatial heterogeneity in the transmission process. Detailed datasets are urgently needed to characterize temporal changes in population behaviors, contact networks at different spatial scales, population mobility patterns, adherence to infection control measures in hospital settings, and hospitalization and reporting rates.

  15. Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

    2013-11-01

    Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

  16. Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengchen Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21% in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, -0.15% (SD 1.85%, between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a

  17. Research on an Infectious Disease Transmission by Flocking Birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingsheng Tang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The swarm intelligence is becoming a hot topic. The flocking of birds is a natural phenomenon, which is formed and organized without central or external controls for some benefits (e.g., reduction of energy consummation. However, the flocking also has some negative effects on the human, as the infectious disease H7N9 will easily be transmited from the denser flocking birds to the human. Zombie-city model has been proposed to help analyzing and modeling the flocking birds and the artificial society. This paper focuses on the H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and from the flocking birds to the human. And some interesting results have been shown: (1 only some simple rules could result in an emergence such as the flocking; (2 the minimum distance between birds could affect H7N9 virus transmission in the flocking birds and even affect the virus transmissions from the flocking birds to the human.

  18. Mathematical modeling for control zika transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Naiborhu, Janson; Nuraini, Nuning; Ahmadin

    2017-11-01

    After 70 years since the zika was identified in Uganda, zika is now documented in 62 countries. In general, people infected with this disease do not experience severe conditions, but for pregnant women can cause serious problems because the zika can spread to the fetus. One result, zika can cause abnormalities in the fetal brain called microcephaly. Control and prevention are very important to reduce the spread of this disease. Here, we discussed the problem of optimal control in the model of zika transmission associated with the use of insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Using the approach of optimal control theory, we completed the objective function so that the infected population and its control cost are minimum. Numerically using the Forward-Backward Sweep Method, we obtained the control design of ITN and IRS as a function of time. The results show that the use of both simultaneously is more effective in reducing the population of infection than the use of ITN alone or the IRS alone.

  19. Nipah virus transmission in a hamster model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmie de Wit

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on epidemiological data, it is believed that human-to-human transmission plays an important role in Nipah virus outbreaks. No experimental data are currently available on the potential routes of human-to-human transmission of Nipah virus. In a first dose-finding experiment in Syrian hamsters, it was shown that Nipah virus was predominantly shed via the respiratory tract within nasal and oropharyngeal secretions. Although Nipah viral RNA was detected in urogenital and rectal swabs, no infectious virus was recovered from these samples, suggesting no viable virus was shed via these routes. In addition, hamsters inoculated with high doses shed significantly higher amounts of viable Nipah virus particles in comparison with hamsters infected with lower inoculum doses. Using the highest inoculum dose, three potential routes of Nipah virus transmission were investigated in the hamster model: transmission via fomites, transmission via direct contact and transmission via aerosols. It was demonstrated that Nipah virus is transmitted efficiently via direct contact and inefficiently via fomites, but not via aerosols. These findings are in line with epidemiological data which suggest that direct contact with nasal and oropharyngeal secretions of Nipah virus infected individuals resulted in greater risk of Nipah virus infection. The data provide new and much-needed insights into the modes and efficiency of Nipah virus transmission and have important public health implications with regards to the risk assessment and management of future Nipah virus outbreaks.

  20. Predictive modeling of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J.; Krystosik, A.; Mutuku, F.; Ndenga, B.; LaBeaud, D.; Mordecai, E.

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 390 million people are exposed to dengue virus every year, and with no widely available treatments or vaccines, predictive models of disease risk are valuable tools for vector control and disease prevention. The aim of this study was to modify and improve climate-driven predictive models of dengue vector abundance (Aedes spp. mosquitoes) and viral transmission to people in Kenya. We simulated disease transmission using a temperature-driven mechanistic model and compared model predictions with vector trap data for larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes collected between 2014 and 2017 at four sites across urban and rural villages in Kenya. We tested predictive capacity of our models using four temperature measurements (minimum, maximum, range, and anomalies) across daily, weekly, and monthly time scales. Our results indicate seasonal temperature variation is a key driving factor of Aedes mosquito abundance and disease transmission. These models can help vector control programs target specific locations and times when vectors are likely to be present, and can be modified for other Aedes-transmitted diseases and arboviral endemic regions around the world.

  1. Aerobiology and Its Role in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Fernstrom

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerobiology plays a fundamental role in the transmission of infectious diseases. As infectious disease and infection control practitioners continue employing contemporary techniques (e.g., computational fluid dynamics to study particle flow, polymerase chain reaction methodologies to quantify particle concentrations in various settings, and epidemiology to track the spread of disease, the central variables affecting the airborne transmission of pathogens are becoming better known. This paper reviews many of these aerobiological variables (e.g., particle size, particle type, the duration that particles can remain airborne, the distance that particles can travel, and meteorological and environmental factors, as well as the common origins of these infectious particles. We then review several real-world settings with known difficulties controlling the airborne transmission of infectious particles (e.g., office buildings, healthcare facilities, and commercial airplanes, while detailing the respective measures each of these industries is undertaking in its effort to ameliorate the transmission of airborne infectious diseases.

  2. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    OpenAIRE

    Asher, Jason

    2017-01-01

    We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes ...

  3. Human prion diseases: surgical lessons learned from iatrogenic prion transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonda, David J; Manjila, Sunil; Mehndiratta, Prachi; Khan, Fahd; Miller, Benjamin R; Onwuzulike, Kaine; Puoti, Gianfranco; Cohen, Mark L; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Cali, Ignazio

    2016-07-01

    The human prion diseases, or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, have captivated our imaginations since their discovery in the Fore linguistic group in Papua New Guinea in the 1950s. The mysterious and poorly understood "infectious protein" has become somewhat of a household name in many regions across the globe. From bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly identified as mad cow disease, to endocannibalism, media outlets have capitalized on these devastatingly fatal neurological conditions. Interestingly, since their discovery, there have been more than 492 incidents of iatrogenic transmission of prion diseases, largely resulting from prion-contaminated growth hormone and dura mater grafts. Although fewer than 9 cases of probable iatrogenic neurosurgical cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) have been reported worldwide, the likelihood of some missed cases and the potential for prion transmission by neurosurgery create considerable concern. Laboratory studies indicate that standard decontamination and sterilization procedures may be insufficient to completely remove infectivity from prion-contaminated instruments. In this unfortunate event, the instruments may transmit the prion disease to others. Much caution therefore should be taken in the absence of strong evidence against the presence of a prion disease in a neurosurgical patient. While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) have devised risk assessment and decontamination protocols for the prevention of iatrogenic transmission of the prion diseases, incidents of possible exposure to prions have unfortunately occurred in the United States. In this article, the authors outline the historical discoveries that led from kuru to the identification and isolation of the pathological prion proteins in addition to providing a brief description of human prion diseases and iatrogenic forms of CJD, a brief history of prion disease nosocomial transmission

  4. Frequency-Dependent Disease Transmission and the Dynamics of the Silene-Ustilago Host-Pathogen System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thrall, P.H.; Biere, A.; Uyenoyama, M.K.

    1995-01-01

    Models incorporating density-dependent disease transmission functions generally provide a good fit for airborne and directly transmitted bacterial or viral diseases. However, the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted and vector-borne diseases are likely to be frequency- rather than density-

  5. Foot-and-mouth Disease Transmission in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekleghiorghis, T.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Weerdmeester, K.; Dekker, A.

    2016-01-01

    In Africa, for the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), more information is needed on the spread of the disease at local, regional and inter-regional level. The aim of this review is to identify the role that animal husbandry, trade and wildlife have on the transmission of FMD and to provide

  6. Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molla, W.; Frankena, Klaas; Jong, de Mart

    2017-01-01

    Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed

  7. Infectious Disease Transmission during Transfusion and Transplantation

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-08-13

    Dr. Matthew Kuehnert, Director of the Office of Blood, Organ, and Other Tissue Safety, discusses infections in transplants.  Created: 8/13/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 8/15/2012.

  8. Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.B. Agusto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals. The Zika model is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Our model shows that asymptomatic individuals amplify the disease burden in the community, and the most important parameters for ZIKV spread are the death rate of mosquitoes, the mosquito biting rate, the mosquito recruitment rate, and the transmission per contact to mosquitoes and to adult humans. Scenario exploration indicates that personal-protection is a more effective control strategy than mosquito-reduction strategy. It also shows that delaying conception reduces the number of microcephaly cases, although this does little to prevent Zika transmission in the broader community. However, by coupling aggressive vector control and personal protection use, it is possible to reduce both microcephaly and Zika transmission. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 92B05, 93A30, 93C15. Keywords: Zika virus, Vertical transmission, Microcephaly, Stability, Control

  9. The effect of recruitment rate and other demographic parameters on the transmission of dengue disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supriatna, A. K.; Anggriani, N.

    2015-03-01

    One of important factors which always appears in most of dengue transmission mathematical model is the number of new susceptible recruited into the susceptible compartment. In this paper we discuss the effect of different rates of recruitment on the transmission of dengue disease. We choose a dengue transmission model with the most realistic form of recruitment rate and analyze the effect of environmental change to the transmission of dengue based on the selected model. We model the effect of environmental change by considering that it can alter the value of mosquito's carrying capacity and mosquito's death rate. We found that the most prevalent effect of the environmental change to the transmission of dengue is when it can alter the death rate of the mosquitoes.

  10. Chagas disease transmission by consumption of game meat: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangenis, Luiz Henrique Conde; Nielebock, Marco Antonio Prates; Santos, Ceumara da Silva; Silva, Mateus Curty Carriello da; Bento, Glauber Motta Ribeiro

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the influence of game meat consumption in Chagas disease (CD) transmission, the conditions under which it occurs and the frequency of reports in the literature. Through systematic review, databases PubMed, LILACS, MEDLINE, and SciELO were consulted, and articles written in Portuguese, English, and Spanish were included, with no limitation over publication date. We used the following descriptors: oral, transmission, meat, wild animals, hunt, carnivory, and Chagas disease. Articles that mentioned consumption of animal meat as a form of human transmission of CD were included. We used epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory evidence criteria to confirm cases. Among the 298 articles identified, only six met the eligibility criteria. Only five episodes of oral transmission through wild animal meat or blood consumption were identified. However, in two of them, the possibility of vectorial transmission could not be ruled out. Most reports met the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory evidence criteria established to support the transmission. Though CD transmission is uncommon, hunting and consumption of wild mammals that serve as Trypanosoma cruzi reservoirs should be discouraged in endemic countries in light of the risks inherent to these practices.

  11. Modeling the effects of palm-house proximity on the theoretical risk of Chagas disease transmission in a rural locality of the Orinoco basin, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Erazo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chagas disease is a major public health concern in Latin America and it is transmitted by insects of the subfamily Triatominae, including Rhodnius spp. Since palm trees are ubiquitous in Colombia and a habitat for Rhodnius spp., the presence of palms near villages could increase contact rates between vectors and humans. Therefore, knowing whether a relationship exists between the proximity of palms to villages and the abundance and distribution of vectors therein, may be critical for Chagas disease prevention programs. Adapting a mathematical model for R. prolixus population dynamics in a small village, we model the implications of changing distances between palms and dwellings, to the risk of Chagas disease infection. Methods We implemented a mathematical model that reflects R. prolixus population dynamics in a small village located in the department of Casanare (Colombia to study the role of palm-house proximity. We varied the distance between palms and houses by monitoring the network global efficiency metric. We constructed 1,000 hypothetical villages varying distances and each one was run 100 times. Results According to the model, as palm-house proximity increases, houses were more likely to be visited by triatomine bugs. The number of bugs per unit time increased progressively in a non-linear fashion with high variability. We stress the importance of village configuration on the model output. Conclusions From a theoretical perspective, palm-house proximity may have a positive effect on the incidence of Chagas disease. The model predicts a 1% increase in new human cases per year when houses and palms are brought closer by 75%.

  12. Quantitative and histological assessment of maternal-fetal transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in guinea pigs: An experimental model of congenital Chagas disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jatziri Torres-Vargas

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the effect of Trypanosoma cruzi infection on fertility, gestation outcome, and maternal-fetal transmission in guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus.Animals were infected with T. cruzi H4 strain (TcI lineage before gestation (IBG or during gestation (IDG. Tissue and sera samples of dams and fetuses were obtained near parturition.All IBG and IDG dams were seropositive by two tests, and exhibited blood parasite load of 1.62±2.2 and 50.1±62 parasites/μl, respectively, by quantitative PCR. Histological evaluation showed muscle fiber degeneration and cellular necrosis in all infected dams. Parasite nests were not detected in infected dams by histology. However, qPCR analysis detected parasites-eq/g heart tissue of 153±104.7 and 169.3±129.4 in IBG and IDG dams, respectively. All fetuses of infected dams were positive for anti-parasite IgG antibodies and tissue parasites by qPCR, but presented a low level of tissue inflammatory infiltrate. Fetuses of IDG (vs. IBG dams exhibited higher degree of muscle fiber degeneration and cellular necrosis in the heart and skeletal tissues. The placental tissue exhibited no inflammatory lesions and amastigote nests, yet parasites-eq/g of 381.2±34.3 and 79.2±84.9 were detected in IDG and IBG placentas, respectively. Fetal development was compromised, and evidenced by a decline in weight, crow-rump length, and abdominal width in both groups.T. cruzi TcI has a high capacity of congenital transmission even when it was inoculated at a very low dose before or during gestation. Tissue lesions, parasite load, and fetal under development provide evidence for high virulence of the parasite during pregnancy. Despite finding of high parasite burden by qPCR, placentas were protected from cellular damage. Our studies offer an experimental model to study the efficacy of vaccines and drugs against congenital transmission of T. cruzi. These results also call for T. cruzi screening in pregnant women and adequate follow up of

  13. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel [Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 61300, Brno (Czech Republic); Bednářová, Petra [Institute of Technology and Business, Okružní 517/10, 370 01, České Budějovice (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

  14. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel; Bednářová, Petra

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches

  15. Transmission Dinamics Model Of Dengue Fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debora; Rendy; Rahmi

    2018-01-01

    Dengue fever is an endemic disease that is transmitted through the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector. The disease is present in more than 100 countries in America, Africa, and Asia, especially tropical countries. Differential equations can be used to represent the spread of dengue virus occurring in time intervals and model in the form of mathematical models. The mathematical model in this study tries to represent the spread of dengue fever based on the data obtained and the assumptions used. The mathematical model used is a mathematical model consisting of Susceptible (S), Infected (I), Viruses (V) subpopulations. The SIV mathematical model is then analyzed to see the solution behaviour of the system.

  16. Realistic modeling of radiation transmission inspection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sale, K.E.

    1993-01-01

    We have applied Monte Carlo particle transport methods to assess a proposed neutron transmission inspection system for checked luggage. The geometry of the system and the time, energy and angle dependence of the source have been modeled in detail. A pulsed deuteron beam incident on a thick Be target generates a neutron pulse with a very broad energy spectrum which is detected after passage through the luggage item by a plastic scintillator detector operating in current mode (as opposed to pulse counting mode). The neutron transmission as a function of time information is used to infer the densities of hydrogen, carbon, oxygen and nitrogen in the volume sampled. The measured elemental densities can be compared to signatures for explosives or other contraband. By using such computational modeling it is possible to optimize many aspects of the design of an inspection system without costly and time consuming prototyping experiments or to determine that a proposed scheme will not work. The methods applied here can be used to evaluate neutron or photon schemes based on transmission, scattering or reaction techniques

  17. Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Brooks-Pollock

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

  18. Bifurcation analysis of dengue transmission model in Baguio City, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libatique, Criselda P.; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris J.; Addawe, Joel M.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we formulate a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever in Baguio City, Philippines. We analyzed the existence of the equilibria of the dengue model. We computed and obtained conditions for the existence of the equilibrium states. Stability analysis for the system is carried out for disease free equilibrium. We showed that the system becomes stable under certain conditions of the parameters. A particular parameter is taken and with the use of the Theory of Centre Manifold, the proposed model demonstrates a bifurcation phenomenon. We performed numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  19. New Scenarios of Chagas Disease Transmission in Northern Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Tovar Acero

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease (CD is a systemic parasitic infection caused by the flagellated form of Trypanosoma cruzi. Córdoba department, located in the Colombian Caribbean Coast, was not considered as a region at risk of T. cruzi transmission. In this article, we describe the first acute CD case in Salitral village in Sahagún, Córdoba, confirmed by microscopy and serological tests. Our results draw attention to a new scenario of transmission of acute CD in nonendemic areas of Colombia and highlight the need to include CD in the differential diagnosis of febrile syndromes in this region.

  20. Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potapov, Alex; Merrill, Evelyn; Pybus, Margo; Lewis, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD. PMID:26963921

  1. Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

  2. Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

    2017-05-01

    Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

  3. Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Klinkenberg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection

  4. Flexible AC transmission systems modelling and control

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiao-Ping; Pal, Bikash

    2012-01-01

    The extended and revised second edition of this successful monograph presents advanced modeling, analysis and control techniques of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS). The book covers comprehensively a range of power-system control problems: from steady-state voltage and power flow control, to voltage and reactive power control, to voltage stability control, to small signal stability control using FACTS controllers. In the six years since the first edition of the book has been published research on the FACTS has continued to flourish while renewable energy has developed into a mature and

  5. Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L.

    2018-01-01

    With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. PMID:29555754

  6. Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertzberg, Vicki Stover; Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L

    2018-04-03

    With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  7. Efficient prion disease transmission through common environmental materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritzkow, Sandra; Morales, Rodrigo; Lyon, Adam; Concha-Marambio, Luis; Urayama, Akihiko; Soto, Claudio

    2018-03-02

    Prion diseases are a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases associated with a protein-based infectious agent, termed prion. Compelling evidence suggests that natural transmission of prion diseases is mediated by environmental contamination with infectious prions. We hypothesized that several natural and man-made materials, commonly found in the environments of wild and captive animals, can bind prions and may act as vectors for disease transmission. To test our hypothesis, we exposed surfaces composed of various common environmental materials ( i.e. wood, rocks, plastic, glass, cement, stainless steel, aluminum, and brass) to hamster-adapted 263K scrapie prions and studied their attachment and retention of infectivity in vitro and in vivo Our results indicated that these surfaces, with the sole exception of brass, efficiently bind, retain, and release prions. Prion replication was studied in vitro using the protein misfolding cyclic amplification technology, and infectivity of surface-bound prions was analyzed by intracerebrally challenging hamsters with contaminated implants. Our results revealed that virtually all prion-contaminated materials transmitted the disease at high rates. To investigate a more natural form of exposure to environmental contamination, we simply housed animals with large contaminated spheres made of the different materials under study. Strikingly, most of the hamsters developed classical clinical signs of prion disease and typical disease-associated brain changes. Our findings suggest that prion contamination of surfaces commonly present in the environment can be a source of disease transmission, thus expanding our understanding of the mechanisms for prion spreading in nature. © 2018 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  8. Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

  9. Vector species richness increases haemorrhagic disease prevalence through functional diversity modulating the duration of seasonal transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Andrew W; Cleveland, Christopher A; Dallas, Tad A; Corn, Joseph L

    2016-06-01

    Although many parasites are transmitted between hosts by a suite of arthropod vectors, the impact of vector biodiversity on parasite transmission is poorly understood. Positive relationships between host infection prevalence and vector species richness (SR) may operate through multiple mechanisms, including (i) increased vector abundance, (ii) a sampling effect in which species of high vectorial capacity are more likely to occur in species-rich communities, and (iii) functional diversity whereby communities comprised species with distinct phenologies may extend the duration of seasonal transmission. Teasing such mechanisms apart is impeded by a lack of appropriate data, yet could highlight a neglected role for functional diversity in parasite transmission. We used statistical modelling of extensive host, vector and microparasite data to test the hypothesis that functional diversity leading to longer seasonal transmission explained variable levels of disease in a wildlife population. We additionally developed a simple transmission model to guide our expectation of how an increased transmission season translates to infection prevalence. Our study demonstrates that vector SR is associated with increased levels of disease reporting, but not via increases in vector abundance or via a sampling effect. Rather, the relationship operates by extending the length of seasonal transmission, in line with theoretical predictions.

  10. Fully Implantable Deep Brain Stimulation System with Wireless Power Transmission for Long-term Use in Rodent Models of Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, Man Seung; Moon, Hyun Seok; Kim, Hee Chan; Park, Hyung Woo; Lim, Young Hoon; Paek, Sun Ha

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this study to develop new deep-brain stimulation system for long-term use in animals, in order to develop a variety of neural prostheses. Our system has two distinguished features, which are the fully implanted system having wearable wireless power transfer and ability to change the parameter of stimulus parameter. It is useful for obtaining a variety of data from a long-term experiment. To validate our system, we performed pre-clinical test in Parkinson's disease-rat models for 4 weeks. Through the in vivo test, we observed the possibility of not only long-term implantation and stability, but also free movement of animals. We confirmed that the electrical stimulation neither caused any side effect nor damaged the electrodes. We proved possibility of our system to conduct the long-term pre-clinical test in variety of parameter, which is available for development of neural prostheses.

  11. Sheep movement networks and the transmission of infectious diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoriya V Volkova

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Various approaches have been used to investigate how properties of farm contact networks impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. The potential for transmission of an infection through a contact network can be evaluated in terms of the basic reproduction number, R(0. The magnitude of R(0 is related to the mean contact rate of a host, in this case a farm, and is further influenced by heterogeneities in contact rates of individual hosts. The latter can be evaluated as the second order moments of the contact matrix (variances in contact rates, and co-variance between contacts to and from individual hosts. Here we calculate these quantities for the farms in a country-wide livestock network: >15,000 Scottish sheep farms in each of 4 years from July 2003 to June 2007. The analysis is relevant to endemic and chronic infections with prolonged periods of infectivity of affected animals, and uses different weightings of contacts to address disease scenarios of low, intermediate and high animal-level prevalence.Analysis of networks of Scottish farms via sheep movements from July 2003 to June 2007 suggests that heterogeneities in movement patterns (variances and covariances of rates of movement on and off the farms make a substantial contribution to the potential for the transmission of infectious diseases, quantified as R(0, within the farm population. A small percentage of farms (80% and these farms could be efficiently targeted by interventions aimed at reducing spread of diseases via animal movement.

  12. Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Alderton

    Full Text Available In this research, an agent-based model (ABM was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval. This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

  13. Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderton, Simon; Noble, Jason; Schaten, Kathrin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M

    2015-01-01

    In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

  14. Mathematical modeling of diphtheria transmission in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornbundit, Kan; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin

    2017-08-01

    In this work, a mathematical model for describing diphtheria transmission in Thailand is proposed. Based on the course of diphtheria infection, the population is divided into 8 epidemiological classes, namely, susceptible, symptomatic infectious, asymptomatic infectious, carrier with full natural-acquired immunity, carrier with partial natural-acquired immunity, individual with full vaccine-induced immunity, and individual with partial vaccine-induced immunity. Parameter values in the model were either directly obtained from the literature, estimated from available data, or estimated by means of sensitivity analysis. Numerical solutions show that our model can correctly describe the decreasing trend of diphtheria cases in Thailand during the years 1977-2014. Furthermore, despite Thailand having high DTP vaccine coverage, our model predicts that there will be diphtheria outbreaks after the year 2014 due to waning immunity. Our model also suggests that providing booster doses to some susceptible individuals and those with partial immunity every 10 years is a potential way to inhibit future diphtheria outbreaks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Is maternal transmission of coronary heart disease risk stronger than paternal transmission?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinra, S; Davey Smith, G; Okasha, M; McCarron, P; McEwen, J

    2003-08-01

    To test whether intergenerational transmission of coronary heart disease (CHD) to offspring is greater from the mother than from the father, the association between parental history of CHD and coronary mortality in male offspring was examined. Prospective cohort study with 43 years of follow up. University of Glasgow. Male students (n = 8402) aged 16-30 years when examined in 1948 to 1968. Fatal CHD. Of the 8402 men studied, 615 (7.3%) reported a history of CHD in at least one of the parents: 479 (5.8%) for fathers only, 124 (1.6%) for mothers only, and a further 12 (0.2%) for both their parents. During follow up, 373 (4.4%) men died of CHD. Parental history of disease was associated with fatal CHD and controlling for personal risk factors such as cigarette smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and father's social class did not attenuate this relation. The fully adjusted hazard ratios were 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08 to 2.18), 1.19 (95% CI 0.61 to 2.32), and 8.65 (95% CI 2.65 to 28.31) for father only, mother only, and both parents with CHD, respectively, compared with men whose parents did not have CHD. There was some evidence for interaction between parental histories (p = 0.049), with particularly high risk if both parents reported a history of CHD. This study found no differential transmission of CHD. Paternal history of CHD was at least as important as maternal history. Data from other comparable cohorts provide no consistent evidence of differential transmission. Intergenerational transmission of CHD does not appear to have differential effects between mothers and fathers.

  16. Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chowell Gerardo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs, using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.

  17. Feeder density enhances house finch disease transmission in experimental epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyers, Sahnzi C; Adelman, James S; Farine, Damien R; Thomason, Courtney A; Hawley, Dana M

    2018-05-05

    Anthropogenic food provisioning of wildlife can alter the frequency of contacts among hosts and between hosts and environmental sources of pathogens. Despite the popularity of garden bird feeding, few studies have addressed how feeders influence host contact rates and disease dynamics. We experimentally manipulated feeder density in replicate aviaries containing captive, pathogen-naive, groups of house finches ( Haemorhous mexicanus ) and continuously tracked behaviours at feeders using radio-frequency identification devices. We then inoculated one bird per group with Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg), a common bacterial pathogen for which feeders are fomites of transmission, and assessed effects of feeder density on house finch behaviour and pathogen transmission. We found that pathogen transmission was significantly higher in groups with the highest density of bird feeders, despite a significantly lower rate of intraspecific aggressive interactions relative to the low feeder density groups. Conversely, among naive group members that never showed signs of disease, we saw significantly higher concentrations of Mg-specific antibodies in low feeder density groups, suggesting that birds in low feeder density treatments had exposure to subclinical doses of Mg. We discuss ways in which the density of garden bird feeders could play an important role in mediating the intensity of Mg epidemics.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  18. Modelling of Rabies Transmission Dynamics Using Optimal Control Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine an optimal way of eradicating rabies transmission from dogs into the human population, using preexposure prophylaxis (vaccination and postexposure prophylaxis (treatment due to public education. We obtain the disease-free equilibrium, the endemic equilibrium, the stability, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal control model. Using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS, the forward-backward sweep scheme and the fourth-order Range-Kutta numerical method predict that the global alliance for rabies control’s aim of working to eliminate deaths from canine rabies by 2030 is attainable through mass vaccination of susceptible dogs and continuous use of pre- and postexposure prophylaxis in humans.

  19. Spatio-temporal transmission patterns of black-band disease in a coral community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Zvuloni

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transmission mechanisms of black-band disease (BBD in coral reefs are poorly understood, although this disease is considered to be one of the most widespread and destructive coral infectious diseases. The major objective of this study was to assess transmission mechanisms of BBD in the field based on the spatio-temporal patterns of the disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 3,175 susceptible and infected corals were mapped over an area of 10x10 m in Eilat (northern Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea and the distribution of the disease was examined monthly throughout almost two full disease cycles (June 2006-December 2007. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses were applied to infer the transmission pattern of the disease and to calculate key epidemiological parameters such as (basic reproduction number. We show that the prevalence of the disease is strongly associated with high water temperature. When water temperatures rise and disease prevalence increases, infected corals exhibit aggregated distributions on small spatial scales of up to 1.9 m. Additionally, newly-infected corals clearly appear in proximity to existing infected corals and in a few cases in direct contact with them. We also present and test a model of water-borne infection, indicating that the likelihood of a susceptible coral becoming infected is defined by its spatial location and by the relative spatial distribution of nearby infected corals found in the site. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide evidence that local transmission, but not necessarily by direct contact, is likely to be an important factor in the spread of the disease over the tested spatial scale. In the absence of potential disease vectors with limited mobility (e.g., snails, fireworms in the studied site, water-borne infection is likely to be a significant transmission mechanism of BBD. Our suggested model of water-borne transmission supports this hypothesis. The spatio-temporal analysis also points

  20. Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: Implications for disease spread and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.

  1. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

    OpenAIRE

    Miao, Anqi; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Tongqian; Pradeep, B. G. Sampath Aruna

    2017-01-01

    A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

  2. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anqi Miao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

  3. Transmission and epidemiology of zoonotic protozoal diseases of companion animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esch, Kevin J; Petersen, Christine A

    2013-01-01

    Over 77 million dogs and 93 million cats share our households in the United States. Multiple studies have demonstrated the importance of pets in their owners' physical and mental health. Given the large number of companion animals in the United States and the proximity and bond of these animals with their owners, understanding and preventing the diseases that these companions bring with them are of paramount importance. Zoonotic protozoal parasites, including toxoplasmosis, Chagas' disease, babesiosis, giardiasis, and leishmaniasis, can cause insidious infections, with asymptomatic animals being capable of transmitting disease. Giardia and Toxoplasma gondii, endemic to the United States, have high prevalences in companion animals. Leishmania and Trypanosoma cruzi are found regionally within the United States. These diseases have lower prevalences but are significant sources of human disease globally and are expanding their companion animal distribution. Thankfully, healthy individuals in the United States are protected by intact immune systems and bolstered by good nutrition, sanitation, and hygiene. Immunocompromised individuals, including the growing number of obese and/or diabetic people, are at a much higher risk of developing zoonoses. Awareness of these often neglected diseases in all health communities is important for protecting pets and owners. To provide this awareness, this review is focused on zoonotic protozoal mechanisms of virulence, epidemiology, and the transmission of pathogens of consequence to pet owners in the United States.

  4. Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin-feng; Guo, Yan-Sha; Christakos, George; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Liao, Yi-Lan; Li, Zhong-Jie; Li, Xiao-Zhou; Lai, Sheng-Jie; Chen, Hong-Yan

    2011-04-05

    The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types. HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

  5. Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Xiao-Zhou

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000 ~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. Methods and Findings HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation types. Conclusions HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

  6. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  7. Mother to offspring transmission of chronic wasting disease in reeves' muntjac deer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy V Nalls

    Full Text Available The horizontal transmission of prion diseases has been well characterized in bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, chronic wasting disease (CWD of deer and elk and scrapie of sheep, and has been regarded as the primary mode of transmission. Few studies have monitored the possibility of vertical transmission occurring within an infected mother during pregnancy. To study the potential for and pathway of vertical transmission of CWD in the native cervid species, we used a small cervid model-the polyestrous breeding, indoor maintainable, Reeves' muntjac deer-and determined that the susceptibility and pathogenesis of CWD in these deer reproduce that in native mule and white-tailed deer. Moreover, we demonstrate here that CWD prions are transmitted from doe to fawn. Maternal CWD infection also appears to result in lower percentage of live birth offspring. In addition, evolving evidence from protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA assays on fetal tissues suggest that covert prion infection occurs in utero. Overall, our findings demonstrate that transmission of prions from mother to offspring can occur, and may be underestimated for all prion diseases.

  8. Age-dependent decrease in glutamine synthetase expression in the hippocampal astroglia of the triple transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model: Mechanism for deficient glutamatergic transmission?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Olabarria, M.; Noristani, H. N.; Verkhratsky, Alexei; Rodríguez Arellano, Jose Julio

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 1 (2011), s. 55-63 ISSN 1750-1326 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA309/09/1696; GA ČR(CZ) GAP304/11/0184; GA ČR GA305/08/1384; GA ČR GA309/08/1381 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390703 Keywords : astroglia * glutamine synthetase * Alzheimer ?'?s disease Subject RIV: FH - Neurology Impact factor: 4.278, year: 2011

  9. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance....... of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area...

  10. Modeling effective transmission pathways and control of the world's most successful parasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Matthew; Lenhart, Suzanne; Rosenthal, Benjamin; Zhao, Xiaopeng

    2013-06-01

    Toxoplasma gondii(T. gondii) is a single-celled, intracellular protozoan responsible for the disease toxoplasmosis. The parasite is prevalent worldwide, and it infects all warm-blooded vertebrates. Consumption of meats in which this parasite has encysted confers risk of infection to people and other animals, as does ingestion of water or foods contaminated with environmentally resistant oocysts excreted by cats. Vertical transmission (from mother to offspring) is also possible, leading to disease risk and contributing additional means of ensuring perpetuation of transmission. In this work, we adopt a differential equation model to investigate the effective transmission pathways of T. gondii, as well as potential control mechanisms. Detailed analyses are carried out to examine the significance of transmission routes, virulence, vertical transmission, parasite-induced changes in host behavior, and controls based on vaccination and harvesting. Modeling and analysis efforts may shed insights into understanding the complex life cycle of T. gondii. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Efficient transmission and characterization of creutzfeldt-jakob disease strains in bank voles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Transmission of prions between species is limited by the "species barrier," which hampers a full characterization of human prion strains in the mouse model. We report that the efficiency of primary transmission of prions from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease patients to a wild rodent species, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus, is comparable to that reported in transgenic mice carrying human prion protein, in spite of a low prion protein-sequence homology between man and vole. Voles infected with sporadic and genetic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease isolates show strain-specific patterns of spongiform degeneration and pathological prion protein-deposition, and accumulate protease-resistant prion protein with biochemical properties similar to the human counterpart. Adaptation of genetic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease isolates to voles shows little or no evidence of a transmission barrier, in contrast to the striking barriers observed during transmission of mouse, hamster, and sheep prions to voles. Our results imply that in voles there is no clear relationship between the degree of homology of the prion protein of the donor and recipient species and susceptibility, consistent with the view that the prion strain gives a major contribution to the species barrier. The vole is therefore a valuable model to study human prion diversity and, being susceptible to a range of animal prions, represents a unique tool for comparing isolates from different species.

  12. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  13. Modelos de determinação social das doenças crônicas não-transmissíveis Models of social determination of chronic non-communicable diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomar Almeida-Filho

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Este ensaio revisa criticamente marcos referenciais e modelos teóricos de determinação social das chamadas Doenças Crônicas Não-Transmissíveis. A sociologia funcionalista gerou modelos socioculturais de saúde que influenciaram o campo de investigação epidemiológica da chamada "nova morbidade" (basicamente enfermidades crônicas e degenerativas, posteriormente agrupados sob o rótulo genérico de Teoria do Estresse. Analisam-se abordagens neodurkheimianas das desigualdades sociais, baseadas no conceito de capital social, criticando especialmente os usos quase-teóricos da noção de "estilo de vida" no campo da saúde. Discutem-se ainda alguns modelos derivados do materialismo dialético que se tornaram bastante influentes na epidemiologia social latino-americana, com base nos conceitos de trabalho e classe social. Finalmente, considerando lacunas teóricas e conceituais dessas teorias parciais no que diz respeito ao espaço simbólico da vida social, apresentam-se as bases conceituais de um enfoque teórico alternativo - a "teoria do modo de vida e saúde". Tomada como síntese possível dos modelos objeto desta revisão crítica, considera-se esta teoria como especialmente indicada para a elaboração de modelos epidemiológicos de determinação social de doenças crônicas não-transmissíveis.This essay critically revises theoretical frameworks and models of social determination of chronic non-communicable diseases. Functionalist sociology generated sociocultural models of health that influenced the field of epidemiologic investigation of so-called "new morbidity" (basically chronic and degenerative illnesses, later contained under the generic label of stress theory. Neo-durkheimian approaches of social inequalities, based on the social capital concept, are analyzed and theoretical uses of the lifestyle notion in the health field are criticized. Models derived from the dialectical materialism, grounded on the concepts of labor and

  14. The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaDeau, Shannon L; Allan, Brian F; Leisnham, Paul T; Levy, Michael Z

    2015-07-01

    Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain

  15. Tornado risk model for transmission line design

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Milford, RV

    1997-11-01

    Full Text Available is in combination with ice loading. The wind load used in most codes of practice and design recommendations for transmission line design have until recently been based almost exclusively on large-scale wind storms, which may include severe storms such as hurricanes...

  16. Vaccine preventable viral diseases and risks associated with waterborne transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Maria Ruggeri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Rotavirus and poliovirus are paradigmatic viruses for causing major diseases affecting the human population. The impact of poliovirus is remarkably diminished because of vaccination during the last half century. Poliomyelitis due to wild polio currently affects a limited number of countries, and since 2000 sporadic outbreaks have been associated to neurovirulent vaccine-derived polioviruses. Conversely, rotavirus is presently very diffuse, accounting for the largest fraction of severe gastroenteritis among children <5 years-old. Vaccination towards rotavirus is still in its dawn, and zoonotic strains contribute to the emergence and evolution of novel strains pathogenic to man. The environment, particularly surface water, is a possible vehicle for large transmission of both viruses, but environmental surveillance of circulating strains can help promptly monitor entry of new virulent strains into a country, their shedding and spread.

  17. Modeling of spectral atmosphere transmission for infrared radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiecek, B.; Olbrycht, R.

    2009-01-01

    IR radiation transmission of the atmosphere is an important factor during the thermovision remote sensing and measurement. Transmission coefficient of the atmosphere depends on its content and it is attenuated mainly due to the vapor concentration. Every calibrated thermal camera should be equipped with the digital system which implements the transmission model of the atmosphere. The model presented in this work is based on Beer and Bouguer laws. The proposed simplified model of transmission atmosphere is suitable for implementation in the thermal cameras. A simple digital controller of the camera can calculate the transmission coefficient and correct the temperature measurement. The model takes in account both scattering and absorption due the quantum effects when the photons are interacting with the molecules. (author)

  18. Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keeling Matthew J

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

  19. Age patterns and transmission characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jijun Zhao

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD has circulated in China and caused yearly outbreak. To understand the transmission of the disease and to assess the spatial variation in cases reported, we examined age-specific transmission characteristics and reporting rates of HFMD for 31 provinces in mainland China. Methods We first analyzed incidence spatial patterns and age-specific incidence patterns using dataset from 2008 to 2012. Transmission characteristics were estimated based on catalytic model. Reporting rates were estimated using a simple mass action model from “Time Series Susceptible Infectious Recovered” (TSIR modeling. Results We found age-specific spatial incidence patterns: age-specific proportions of HFMD cases varied geographically in China; larger case percentage was among children of 3–5 years old in the northern part of China and was among children of 0–2 years old in the southern part of China. Our analysis results revealed that: 1 reporting rates and transmission characteristics including the average age at infection, the force of infection and the basic reproduction number varied geographically in China; 2 patterns of the age-specific force of infection for 30 provinces were similar to that of childhood infections in developed countries; the age group that had the highest infection risk was 3–5 years old in 30 provinces, and 10–14 years old in Tibet; 3 a large difference in HFMD transmission existed between northwest region and southeast region; 4 transmission characteristics determined incidence patterns: the higher the disease transmission in a province, the earlier the annual seasonality started and the more case percentage was among children 0–2 years old and less among 3–5 years old. Conclusion Because HFMD has higher transmission than most childhood infections reported, high effective vaccine coverage is needed to substantially reduce HFMD incidence. Control measures before the vaccine

  20. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

    2015-06-19

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  1. Seroprevalence of Antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum Sporozoite Antigens as Predictive Disease Transmission Markers in an Area of Ghana with Seasonal Malaria Transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwadwo A Kusi

    Full Text Available As an increasing number of malaria-endemic countries approach the disease elimination phase, sustenance of control efforts and effective monitoring are necessary to ensure success. Mathematical models that estimate anti-parasite antibody seroconversion rates are gaining relevance as more sensitive transmission intensity estimation tools. Models however estimate yearly seroconversion and seroreversion rates and usually predict long term changes in transmission, occurring years before the time of sampling. Another challenge is the identification of appropriate antigen targets since specific antibody levels must directly reflect changes in transmission patterns. We therefore investigated the potential of antibodies to sporozoite and blood stage antigens for detecting short term differences in malaria transmission in two communities in Northern Ghana with marked, seasonal transmission.Cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the rainy and dry seasons in two communities, one in close proximity to an irrigation dam and the other at least 20 Km away from the dam. Antibodies against the sporozoite-specific antigens circumsporozoite protein (CSP and Cell traversal for ookinetes and sporozoites (CelTOS and the classical blood stage antigen apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Antibody levels and seroprevalence were compared between surveys and between study communities. Antibody seroprevalence data were fitted to a modified reversible catalytic model to estimate the seroconversion and seroreversion rates.Changes in sporozoite-specific antibody levels and seroprevalence directly reflected differences in parasite prevalence between the rainy and dry seasons and hence the extent of malaria transmission. Seroconversion rate estimates from modelled seroprevalence data did not however support the above observation.The data confirms the potential utility of sporozoite-specific antigens as useful markers for monitoring short term

  2. Grounding modelling for transient overvoltage simulation in electric power transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno O, German; Valencia V, Jaime A; Villada, Fernando

    1992-01-01

    Grounding plays an important role in transmission line outages and consequently on electric energy transmission quality indexes. Fundamentals of an accurate modelling for transient behaviour analysis, particularly for the response of transmission lines to lightning, are presented. Also, a method to take into account the electromagnetic propagation guided by the grounding electrodes and finally to assess the grounding impedance in order to simulate the transmission line behaviour under lightning is presented. Analysis of impedance behaviour for diverse configurations and simulation results of over voltages on a real 220 kV line are presented to illustrate the capabilities of the method and of the computational program developed

  3. Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin

    2015-10-01

    Since the re-emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, comprehensive and stringent interventions have been implemented to decelerate the spread of the disease. The effectiveness of interventions still remains unclear. In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model that includes various controlling measures to systematically evaluate their effects on the disease transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to reported cumulative cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia until March 22, 2015, we estimate the basic reproduction number in these countries as 1.2552, 1.6093 and 1.7994, respectively. Model analysis shows that there exists a threshold of the effectiveness of isolation, below which increasing the fraction of latent individuals diagnosed prior to symptoms onset or shortening the duration between symptoms onset and isolation may lead to more Ebola infection. This challenges an existing view. Media coverage plays a substantial role in reducing the final epidemic size. The response to reported cumulative infected cases and deaths may have a different effect on the epidemic spread in different countries. Among all the interventions, we find that shortening the duration between death and burial and improving the effectiveness of isolation are two effective interventions for controlling the outbreak of Ebola virus infection.

  4. Characteristics of cyprinid herpesvirus 3 in different phases of infection: implications for disease transmission and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunarto, Agus; McColl, Kenneth A; Crane, Mark St J; Schat, Karel A; Slobedman, Barry; Barnes, Andrew C; Walker, Peter J

    2014-08-08

    Koi herpesvirus disease (KHVD) is an emerging and highly contagious viral disease of koi and common carp (Cyprinus carpio), causing mass mortalities and huge economic losses to the carp aquaculture industry. The disease has spread rapidly to 28 countries worldwide. However, mechanisms of koi herpesvirus (species Cyprinid herpesvirus 3; CyHV-3) transmission remain unclear. A potential experimental model of CyHV-3 infection in carp was used to characterise CyHV-3 in different phases of infection and to demonstrate that CyHV-3 persists in survivor fish and has the capacity to reactivate and transmit the disease to healthy fish. During acute infection, which occurred when fish were maintained at 22°C, viral genes were abundantly expressed and infectious virus was produced in association with tissue damage, clinical disease and mortality. In fish maintained at a lower temperature (11°C), viral DNA was present but viral gene expression was absent or greatly restricted, infectious virus was not recovered and there was no evidence of disease. Productive replication was re-initiated following an increase in water temperature to 22°C, resulting in 45% mortality. Shedding of reactivated virus killed 75% of cohabitating naïve fish, suggesting a potential risk for disease transmission. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Urban transmission of Chagas disease in Cochabamba, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Medrano-Mercado

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease is a major public health problem in Bolivia. In the city of Cochabamba, 58% of the population lives in peripheral urban districts ("popular zones" where the infection prevalence is extremely high. From 1995 to 1999, we studied the demographics of Chagas infections in children from five to 13 years old (n = 2218 from the South zone (SZ and North zone (NZ districts, which differ in social, environmental, and agricultural conditions. Information gathered from these districts demonstrates qualitative and quantitative evidence for the active transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in urban Cochabamba. Seropositivity was high in both zones (25% in SZ and 19% in NZ. We observed a high risk of infection in children from five to nine years old in SZ, but in NZ, a higher risk occurred in children aged 10-13, with odds ratio for infection three times higher in NZ than in SZ. This difference was not due to triatomine density, since more than 1,000 Triatoma infestans were captured in both zones, but was possibly secondary to the vector infection rate (79% in SZ and 37% in NZ. Electrocardiogram abnormalities were found to be prevalent in children and pre-adolescents (SZ = 40%, NZ = 17%, indicating that under continuous exposure to infection and re-infection, a severe form of the disease may develop early in life. This work demonstrates that T. cruzi infection should also be considered an urban health problem and is not restricted to the rural areas and small villages of Bolivia.

  6. An epidemiological model of virus transmission in salmonid fishes of the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Paige F. B.; Breyta, Rachel; Brito, Ilana L.; Kurath, Gael; LaDeau, Shannon L.

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a dynamic epidemiological model informed by records of viral presence and genotypes to evaluate potential transmission routes maintaining a viral pathogen in economically and culturally important anadromous fish populations. In the Columbia River Basin, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) causes severe disease, predominantly in juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and less frequently in Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Mortality events following IHNV infection can be devastating for individual hatchery programs. Despite reports of high local mortality and extensive surveillance efforts, there are questions about how viral transmission is maintained. Modeling this system offers important insights into disease transmission in natural aquatic systems, as well as about the data requirements for generating accurate estimates about transmission routes and infection probabilities. We simulated six scenarios in which testing rates and the relative importance of different transmission routes varied. The simulations demonstrated that the model accurately identified routes of transmission and inferred infection probabilities accurately when there was testing of all cohort-sites. When testing records were incomplete, the model accurately inferred which transmission routes exposed particular cohort-sites but generated biased infection probabilities given exposure. After validating the model and generating guidelines for result interpretation, we applied the model to data from 14 annual cohorts (2000–2013) at 24 focal sites in a sub-region of the Columbia River Basin, the lower Columbia River (LCR), to quantify the relative importance of potential transmission routes in this focal sub-region. We demonstrate that exposure to IHNV via the return migration of adult fish is an important route for maintaining IHNV in the LCR sub-region, and the probability of infection following this exposure was relatively high at 0.16. Although only 1% of

  7. Criticality of Parasitic Disease Transmission in a Diffusive Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Minhua; Zhang Duanming; Yin Yanping; Chen Zhiyuan; Pan Guijun

    2008-01-01

    Through using the methods of finite-size effect and short time dynamic scaling, we study the critical behavior of parasitic disease spreading process in a diffusive population mediated by a static vector environment. Through comprehensive analysis of parasitic disease spreading we find that this model presents a dynamical phase transition from disease-free state to endemic state with a finite population density. We determine the critical population density, above which the system reaches an epidemic spreading stationary state. We also perform a scaling analysis to determine the order parameter and critical relaxation exponents. The results show that the model does not belong to the usual directed percolation universality class and is compatible with the class of directed percolation with diffusive and conserved fields

  8. Cosmic Transmission of Periodontal, Cardiovascular and Kidney Disease via Nanobacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafar Kolahi

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nanobacteria (NB are mysterious particles that have spurred one of the biggest controversies in modern micro-biology. NB has been reported to be present in animal and human blood, tissue culture cell lines, wastewater and etc. NB appear to cause or contribute to common diseases of the mankind e.g. periodontitis, formation of kidney stone, heart calcifications, coronary artery calcification, atherosclerotic plaque. Recent data on the far-ultraviolet extinction of starlight in our galaxy and in external galaxies is interpreted in terms of the widespread occurrence of organic particles of optical refractive index 1.4 and radii less than or equal to 20 nm. Such particles are candidates for NB such as recently been found in abundance on the Earth. Unbelievably nanobacteria-like rods observed at the surface of the Tataouine meteorite and Martian rock.The hypothesis: It seems logic to hypothesize that aliens from inner space, nanobacteria, can bring us new disease such as periodontal, cardiovascular and kidney diseases via space travels or meteorites or interstellar dusts.Evaluation of the hypothesis: The main criticism with this idea is how NB can keep alive during transfer among seriously life threatening condition in interstellar space. NB are generally thought to be very difficult to deactivation, exceptionally resistant to heat, are not deactivated by physical or chemical treatments including autoclaving, UV treatment, and various biocides. Health care providers, health policy makers and space agencies e.g. NASA and European Space Agency should make a concentrated effort to prevent transmission of NB especially following space travels.

  9. Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis: Transmission and Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Swaminathan

    2004-01-01

    textabstractLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito borne parasitic disease of the tropics. Of the three species of parasites causing the disease, W. bancrofti transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus is the most widely prevalent. Infection can lead to disabling chronic manifestations: lymphoedema,

  10. Nonlinear dynamics modelling of multistage micro-planetary gear transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jianying

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The transmission structure of a 2K-H multistage micro-planetary gear transmission reducer is described in detail, and three assumptions are supposed in dynamic modelling. On basis of these assumptions, a three stages 2K-H micro-planetary gear transmission dynamic model is established, in which the relative displacement each meshing gear pairs can be obtained after including the comprehensive transmission error. According to gear kinematics, the friction arms between the sun gear, the ring gear and the nth planet are also obtained, and the friction coefficient in the mixed elastohydrodynamic lubrication is considered, the transmission system motion differential equations are obtained, including above factors and the time-varying meshing stiffness, damping and backlash, inter-stage coupling stiffness, it can be provided an theoretical foundation for further analysing the parameter sensitivity, dynamic stability and designing.

  11. Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

    2012-01-01

    The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

  12. Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

    2012-01-01

    The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

  13. Estimation of the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected sheep to cattle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda, C.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Eble, P.L.; Dekker, A.

    2014-01-01

    The quantitative role of sheep in the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is not well known. To estimate the role of sheep in the transmission of FMDV, a direct contact transmission experiment with 10 groups of animals each consisting of 2 infected lambs and 1 contact calf was

  14. Co-feeding transmission facilitates strain coexistence in Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.L. States

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission may occur in the absence of systemic infection between two vectors feeding in close proximity, enabling pathogens to minimize competition and escape the host immune response. In a laboratory study, we demonstrated that co-feeding transmission can occur for a rapidly-cleared strain of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent, between two stages of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis while feeding on their dominant host, Peromyscus leucopus. In contrast, infections rapidly became systemic for the persistently infecting strain. In a field study, we assessed opportunities for co-feeding transmission by measuring co-occurrence of two tick stages on ears of small mammals over two years at multiple sites. Finally, in a modeling study, we assessed the importance of co-feeding on R0, the basic reproductive number. The model indicated that co-feeding increases the fitness of rapidly-cleared strains in regions with synchronous immature tick feeding. Our results are consistent with increased diversity of B. burgdorferi in areas of higher synchrony in immature feeding – such as the midwestern United States. A higher relative proportion of rapidly-cleared strains, which are less human pathogenic, would also explain lower Lyme disease incidence in this region. Finally, if co-feeding transmission also occurs on refractory hosts, it may facilitate the emergence and persistence of new pathogens with a more limited host range.

  15. Deterministic SLIR model for tuberculosis disease mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Nazrina; Diah, Ijlal Mohd; Ahmad, Nazihah; Kasim, Maznah Mat

    2017-11-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) occurs worldwide. It can be transmitted to others directly through air when active TB persons sneeze, cough or spit. In Malaysia, it was reported that TB cases had been recognized as one of the most infectious disease that lead to death. Disease mapping is one of the methods that can be used as the prevention strategies since it can displays clear picture for the high-low risk areas. Important thing that need to be considered when studying the disease occurrence is relative risk estimation. The transmission of TB disease is studied through mathematical model. Therefore, in this study, deterministic SLIR models are used to estimate relative risk for TB disease transmission.

  16. Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium E0, when the effective reproduction number RVT≤1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium E1, when RVT>1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at RVT=1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education. Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.

  17. Biodiversity and disease: a synthesis of ecological perspectives on Lyme disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Chelsea L.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2013-01-01

    Recent reviews have argued that disease control is among the ecosystem services yielded by biodiversity. Lyme disease (LD) is commonly cited as the best example of the ‘diluting’ effect of biodiversity on disease transmission, but many studies document the opposite relationship, showing that human LD risk can increase with forestation. Here, we unify these divergent perspectives and find strong evidence for a positive link between biodiversity and LD at broad spatial scales (urban to suburban to rural) and equivocal evidence for a negative link between biodiversity and LD at varying levels of biodiversity within forests. This finding suggests that, across zoonotic disease agents, the biodiversity–disease relationship is scale dependent and complex.

  18. High-frequency electroacupuncture evidently reinforces hippocampal synaptic transmission in Alzheimer's disease rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Kong, Li-hong; Wang, Hui; Shen, Feng; Wang, Ya-wen; Zhou, Hua; Sun, Guo-jie

    2016-01-01

    The frequency range of electroacupuncture in treatment of Alzheimer's disease in rats is commonly 2–5 Hz (low frequency) and 50–100 Hz (high frequency). We established a rat model of Alzheimer's disease by injecting β-amyloid 1–42 (Aβ1–42) into the bilateral hippocampal dentate gyrus to verify which frequency may be better suited in treatment. Electroacupuncture at 2 Hz or 50 Hz was used to stimulate Baihui (DU20) and Shenshu (BL23) acupoints. The water maze test and electrophysiological studies demonstrated that spatial memory ability was apparently improved, and the ranges of long-term potentiation and long-term depression were increased in Alzheimer's disease rats after electroacupuncture treatment. Moreover, the effects of electroacupuncture at 50 Hz were better than that at 2 Hz. These findings suggest that high-frequency electroacupuncture may enhance hippocampal synaptic transmission and potentially improve memory disorders in Alzheimer's disease rats. PMID:27335565

  19. Quantifying human-environment interactions using videography in the context of infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julian, Timothy R; Bustos, Carla; Kwong, Laura H; Badilla, Alejandro D; Lee, Julia; Bischel, Heather N; Canales, Robert A

    2018-05-08

    Quantitative data on human-environment interactions are needed to fully understand infectious disease transmission processes and conduct accurate risk assessments. Interaction events occur during an individual's movement through, and contact with, the environment, and can be quantified using diverse methodologies. Methods that utilize videography, coupled with specialized software, can provide a permanent record of events, collect detailed interactions in high resolution, be reviewed for accuracy, capture events difficult to observe in real-time, and gather multiple concurrent phenomena. In the accompanying video, the use of specialized software to capture humanenvironment interactions for human exposure and disease transmission is highlighted. Use of videography, combined with specialized software, allows for the collection of accurate quantitative representations of human-environment interactions in high resolution. Two specialized programs include the Virtual Timing Device for the Personal Computer, which collects sequential microlevel activity time series of contact events and interactions, and LiveTrak, which is optimized to facilitate annotation of events in real-time. Opportunities to annotate behaviors at high resolution using these tools are promising, permitting detailed records that can be summarized to gain information on infectious disease transmission and incorporated into more complex models of human exposure and risk.

  20. Quantifying human-environment interactions using videography in the context of infectious disease transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy R. Julian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative data on human-environment interactions are needed to fully understand infectious disease transmission processes and conduct accurate risk assessments. Interaction events occur during an individual’s movement through, and contact with, the environment, and can be quantified using diverse methodologies. Methods that utilize videography, coupled with specialized software, can provide a permanent record of events, collect detailed interactions in high resolution, be reviewed for accuracy, capture events difficult to observe in real-time, and gather multiple concurrent phenomena. In the accompanying video, the use of specialized software to capture humanenvironment interactions for human exposure and disease transmission is highlighted. Use of videography, combined with specialized software, allows for the collection of accurate quantitative representations of human-environment interactions in high resolution. Two specialized programs include the Virtual Timing Device for the Personal Computer, which collects sequential microlevel activity time series of contact events and interactions, and LiveTrak, which is optimized to facilitate annotation of events in real-time. Opportunities to annotate behaviors at high resolution using these tools are promising, permitting detailed records that can be summarized to gain information on infectious disease transmission and incorporated into more complex models of human exposure and risk.

  1. Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Andraud

    Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

  2. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  3. ARMAX, OE and SSIF model predictors for power transmission and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Three mathematical model structures, namely: ARMAX, OE and a SSIF are first formulated followed by the formulation of their respective model predictors for the model identification and prediction of power transmission and distribution within Akure and its environs. A total of 51,350 data samples from the Power Holding ...

  4. Transmission scenarios of major vector-borne diseases in Colombia, 1990-2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio César Padilla

    2017-03-01

    Conclusions: Persistent epidemic and endemic transmission of vector-borne diseases in urban and rural settings in Colombia was observed mainly in the case of malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis and Chagas disease. Such transmission was focused and had variable intensity patterns. On the other hand, the conditions that have favored the emergence of new arboviruses persist.

  5. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  6. Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Elizabeth C.; Kelly, Michael R.; Ochocki, Brad M.; Akinwumi, Segun M.; Hamre, Karen E. S.; Tien, Joseph H.; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and other features. These differences may yield different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether model inferences are robust t...

  7. Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. Results In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries. The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Conclusions Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and

  8. The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Nouvellet

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8 × 10(-4 (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0] × 10(-4. This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900-4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known

  9. A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zivzivadze, O.; Zivzivadze, L.

    2009-01-01

    Difficulties associated with the development of calculation models are analyzed, and the ways of resolution of these problems are given. A version of the equivalent circuit as a six-pole network, the parameters of which do not depend on the angle of shift Θ between the voltage vectors of circuits is offered. The interrelation between the parameters of the equivalent circuit and the transmission constants of the line was determined. A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line was elaborated. The model allows calculating the stationary modes of lines of such classes at any angle of shift Θ between the circuits. (author)

  10. Analysis of a Malaria Model with Mosquito-Dependent Transmission ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we discuss an ordinary differential equation mathematical model for the spread of malaria in human and mosquito population. We suppose the human population to act as a reservoir. Both the species follow a logistic population model. The transmission coefficient or the interaction coefficient of humans is ...

  11. Flexible AC transmission systems. Modelling and control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xiao-Ping [Birmingham Univ. (United Kingdom); Rehtanz, Christian [Technische Univ. Dortmund (Germany); Pal, Bikash [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)

    2012-11-01

    This monograph presents advanced modelling, analysis and control techniques of FACTS. These topics reflect the recent research and development of FACTS controllers, and anticipate the future applications of FACTS in power systems. The book covers comprehensively a range of power-system control problems: from steady-state voltage and power flow control, to voltage and reactive power control, to voltage stability control, to small signal stability control using FACTS controllers. The book presents the modelling of the latest FACTS controllers for power flow control, compensation and power quality (IPFC, GUPF, VSC HVDC and M-VSCHVDC, etc.) in power system analysis. The selection is evaluated by the actual and likely future practical relevance of each. The material is derived mainly from the research and industrial development in which the authors have been heavily involved. The book is timely and of great value to power engineering engineers and students of modelling, simulations and control design of FACTS for a broad practical range of power system operation, planning and control problems.

  12. Mathematical model of transmission network static state estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Aleksandar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the characteristics and capabilities of the power transmission network static state estimator are presented. The solving process of the mathematical model containing the measurement errors and their processing is developed. To evaluate difference between the general model of state estimation and the fast decoupled state estimation model, the both models are applied to an example, and so derived results are compared.

  13. The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geard, Nicholas; Glass, Kathryn; McCaw, James M; McBryde, Emma S; Korb, Kevin B; Keeling, Matt J; McVernon, Jodie

    2015-12-01

    The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. Here we use an individual based model with realistic and dynamic age and household structure to demonstrate the marked effect that demographic change has on disease transmission at the population and household level. The decline in fertility is associated with a decrease in disease incidence and an increase in the age of first infection, even in the absence of vaccination or other control measures. Although large households become rarer as fertility decreases, we show that there is a proportionate increase in incidence of disease in these households as the accumulation of susceptible clusters increases the potential for explosive outbreaks. By modelling vaccination, we provide a direct comparison of the relative importance of demographic change and vaccination on incidence of disease. We highlight the increased risks associated with unvaccinated households in a low fertility setting if vaccine behaviour is correlated with household membership. We suggest that models that do not account for future demographic change, and especially its effect on household structure, may potentially overestimate the impact of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Rigorous theoretical derivation of lumped models to transmission line systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Jixiang

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of the negative electric parameter concept, i.e. negative lumped resistance, inductance, conductance and capacitance (N-RLGC), the lumped equivalent models of transmission line systems, including the circuit model, two-port π-network and T-network, are given. We start from the N-segment-ladder-like equivalent networks composed distributed parameters, and achieve the input impedance in the form of a continued fraction. Utilizing the continued fraction theory, the expressions of input impedance are obtained under three kinds of extreme cases, i.e. the load impedances are equal to zero, infinity and characteristic impedance, respectively. When the number of segment N is limited to infinity, they are transformed to lumped elements. Comparison between the distributed model and lumped model of transmission lines, the expression of tanh γd, which is the key term in the transmission line equations, are obtained by RLGC, furthermore, according to input admittance, admittance matrix and ABCD matrix of transmission lines, the lumped equivalent circuit models, π-networks and T-networks have been given. The models are verified in the frequency and time domain, respectively, showing that the models are accurate and efficient. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  15. Transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the incubation period in pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Stenfeldt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV during the incubation (preclinical phase of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation. Contact-exposed pigs were co-mingled with infected donors through successive eight-hour time slots spanning from 8 to 64 hours post inoculation (hpi of the donor pigs. The transition from latent to infectious periods in the donor pigs was clearly defined by successful transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD to all contact pigs that were exposed to the donors from 24 hpi and later. This onset of infectiousness occurred concurrent with detection of viremia, but approximately 24 hours prior to the first appearance of clinical signs of FMD in the donors.Thus, the latent period of infection ended approximately 24 hours earlier than the end of the incubation period. There were significant differences between contact-exposed groups in the time elapsed from virus exposure to the first detection of FMDV shedding, viremia and clinical lesions. Specifically, the onset and progression of clinical FMD was more rapid in pigs that had been exposed to the donor pigs during more advanced phases of disease, suggesting that these animals had received a higher effective challenge dose. These results demonstrate transmission and dissemination of FMD within groups of pigs during the incubation period of infection. Furthermore, the findings suggest that under current conditions, shedding of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluids is a more precise proxy for FMDV infectiousness than clinical signs of infection. These findings may impact modeling of the propagation of

  16. Comparison of Transmission Line Methods for Surface Acoustic Wave Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, William; Atkinson, Gary

    2009-01-01

    Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) technology is low cost, rugged, lightweight, extremely low power and can be used to develop passive wireless sensors. For these reasons, NASA is investigating the use of SAW technology for Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM) of aerospace structures. To facilitate rapid prototyping of passive SAW sensors for aerospace applications, SAW models have been developed. This paper reports on the comparison of three methods of modeling SAWs. The three models are the Impulse Response Method (a first order model), and two second order matrix methods; the conventional matrix approach, and a modified matrix approach that is extended to include internal finger reflections. The second order models are based upon matrices that were originally developed for analyzing microwave circuits using transmission line theory. Results from the models are presented with measured data from devices. Keywords: Surface Acoustic Wave, SAW, transmission line models, Impulse Response Method.

  17. AIDS and transmissible opportunistic diseases in the Brazilian border area

    OpenAIRE

    RODRIGUES-JÚNIOR, Antonio Luiz; CASTILHO, Euclides Ayres de

    2010-01-01

    INTRODUÇÃO: A transmissão do HIV e de outras doenças transmissíveis, de pessoa a pessoa, pode ser associada à mobilidade humana. Este trabalho avaliou a incidência de doenças oportunistas transmissíveis entre os casos de AIDS, nos municípios da faixa de fronteira brasileira. MÉTODOS: Os municípios da faixa de fronteira brasileira foram agrupados em três regiões culturais; foram consideradas as notificações feitas ao Ministério da Saúde, entre 1990 e 2003, que tenham sido feitas com os critéri...

  18. Influence of breaking the symmetry between disease transmission and information propagation networks on stepwise decisions concerning vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukuda, Eriko; Tanimoto, Jun; Akimoto, Mitsuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We construct a model using epidemiological and vaccination dynamics. • We study effects of information propagation networks on disease propagation. • Information propagation networks affect the spatial structures of vaccinators. • Disease transmission network affects the information propagation network results. • Vaccination cost does not alter the effects of network-topology symmetry breaking. - Abstract: In previous epidemiological studies that address adaptive vaccination decisions, individuals generally act within a single network, which models the population structure. However, in reality, people are typically members of multiplex networks, which have various community structures. For example, a disease transmission network, which directly transmits infectious diseases, does not necessarily correspond with an information propagation network, in which individuals directly or indirectly exchange information concerning health conditions and vaccination strategies. The latter network may also be used for strategic interaction (strategy adaptation) concerning vaccination. Therefore, in order to reflect this feature, we consider the vaccination dynamics of structured populations whose members simultaneously belong to two types of networks: disease transmission and information propagation. Applying intensive numerical calculations, we determine that if the disease transmission network is modeled using a regular graph, such as a lattice population or random regular graph containing individuals of equivalent degrees, individuals should base their vaccination decisions on a different type of network. However, if the disease transmission network is a degree-heterogeneous graph, such as the Barabási–Albert scale-free network, which has a heterogeneous degree according to power low, then using the same network for information propagation more effectively prevents the spread of epidemics. Furthermore, our conclusions are unaffected by the relative

  19. Transmission of chronic wasting disease identifies a prion strain causing cachexia and heart infection in hamsters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard A Bessen

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is an emerging prion disease of free-ranging and captive cervids in North America. In this study we established a rodent model for CWD in Syrian golden hamsters that resemble key features of the disease in cervids including cachexia and infection of cardiac muscle. Following one to three serial passages of CWD from white-tailed deer into transgenic mice expressing the hamster prion protein gene, CWD was subsequently passaged into Syrian golden hamsters. In one passage line there were preclinical changes in locomotor activity and a loss of body mass prior to onset of subtle neurological symptoms around 340 days. The clinical symptoms included a prominent wasting disease, similar to cachexia, with a prolonged duration. Other features of CWD in hamsters that were similar to cervid CWD included the brain distribution of the disease-specific isoform of the prion protein, PrP(Sc, prion infection of the central and peripheral neuroendocrine system, and PrP(Sc deposition in cardiac muscle. There was also prominent PrP(Sc deposition in the nasal mucosa on the edge of the olfactory sensory epithelium with the lumen of the nasal airway that could have implications for CWD shedding into nasal secretions and disease transmission. Since the mechanism of wasting disease in prion diseases is unknown this hamster CWD model could provide a means to investigate the physiological basis of cachexia, which we propose is due to a prion-induced endocrinopathy. This prion disease phenotype has not been described in hamsters and we designate it as the 'wasting' or WST strain of hamster CWD.

  20. Study on Tower Models for EHV Transmission Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Bao-Qing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lightning outage accident is one of the main factors that threat seriously the safe and reliable operation of power system. So it is very important to establish reasonable transmission tower model and evaluate the impulse response characteristic of lightning wave traveling on the transmission tower properly for determining reliable lightning protection performance. With the help of Electromagnetic Transient Program (EMTP, six 500kV tower models are built. Aiming at one line to one transformer operating mode of 500kV substation, the intruding wave overvoltage under different tower models is calculated. The effect of tower model on intruding overvoltage has been studied. The results show that different tower models can result in great differences to the calculation results. Hence, reasonable selection of the tower model in the calculation of back- strike intruding wave is very important.

  1. The impact of economic crises on communicable disease transmission and control: a systematic review of the evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Suhrcke

    Full Text Available There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the "SIR" (susceptible-infected-recovered model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control.

  2. Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santanu Biswas

    Full Text Available Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To address this issue, we propose an extensive SIR-type model for anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission with seasonal fluctuations modeled in the form of periodic sandfly biting rate. Fitting the model for real data reported in South Sudan, we estimate the model parameters and compare the model predictions with known VL cases. Using optimal control theory, we study the effects of popular control strategies namely, drug-based treatment of symptomatic and PKDL-infected individuals, insecticide treated bednets and spray of insecticides on the dynamics of infected human and vector populations. We propose that the strategies remain ineffective in curbing the disease individually, as opposed to the use of optimal combinations of the mentioned strategies. Testing the model for different optimal combinations while considering periodic seasonal fluctuations, we find that the optimal combination of treatment of individuals and insecticide sprays perform well in controlling the disease for the time period of intervention introduced. Performing a cost-effective analysis we identify that the same strategy also proves to be efficacious and cost-effective. Finally, we suggest that our model would be helpful for policy makers to predict the best intervention strategies for specific time periods and their appropriate implementation for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis.

  3. Multiple mechanisms of transmission of the Caribbean coral disease white plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemens, E.; Brandt, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    White plague is one of the most devastating coral diseases in the Caribbean, and yet important aspects of its epidemiology, including how the disease transmits, remain unknown. This study tested potential mechanisms and rates of transmission of white plague in a laboratory setting. Transmission mechanisms including the transport of water, contact with macroalgae, and predation via corallivorous worms and snails were tested on the host species Orbicella annularis. Two of the tested mechanisms were shown to transmit disease: water transport and the corallivorous snail Coralliophila abbreviata. Between these transmission mechanisms, transport of water between a diseased coral and a healthy coral resulted in disease incidence significantly more frequently in exposed healthy corals. Transmission via water transport also occurred more quickly and was associated with higher rates of tissue loss (up to 3.5 cm d-1) than with the corallivorous snail treatment. In addition, water that was in contact with diseased corals but was filtered with a 0.22-μm filter prior to being introduced to apparently healthy corals also resulted in the transmission of disease signs, but at a much lower rate than when water was not filtered. This study has provided important information on the transmission potential of Caribbean white plague disease and highlights the need for a greater understanding of how these processes operate in the natural environment.

  4. ROUTES OF TRANSMISSION OF DISEASES IN DENTAL PRACTICE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Department of Community and Preventive Dentistry. Faculty of Dentistry, Muhimbili University College of Health Sciences,. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Contamination and infection. Transmission of microorganisms ego bacteria, viruses; fungi and protozoa is a hazard in dental practice (1-4) .. Introduction of microorganisms.

  5. Some Advances in the Circuit Modeling of Extraordinary Optical Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Medina

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of extraordinary optical transmission (EOT through electrically small holes perforated on opaque metal screens has been a hot topic in the optics community for more than one decade. This experimentally observed frequency-selective enhanced transmission of electromagnetic power through holes, for which classical Bethe's theory predicts very poor transmission, later attracted the attention of engineers working on microwave engineering or applied electromagnetics. Extraordinary transmission was first linked to the plasma-like behavior of metals at optical frequencies. However, the primary role played by the periodicity of the distribution of holes was soon made evident, in such a way that extraordinary transmission was disconnected from the particular behavior of metals at optical frequencies. Indeed, the same phenomenon has been observed in the microwave and millimeter wave regime, for instance. Nowadays, the most commonly accepted theory explains EOT in terms of the interaction of the impinging plane wave with the surface plasmon-polariton-Bloch waves (SPP-Bloch supported by the periodically perforated plate. The authors of this paper have recently proposed an alternative model whose details will be briefly summarized here. A parametric study of the predictions of the model and some new potential extensions will be reported to provide additional insight.

  6. Towards Chagas disease elimination: Neonatal screening for congenital transmission in rural communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, Pamela Marie; Juárez, José Guillermo; Arrivillaga, Margarita Rivera; De Urioste-Stone, Sandra María; Doktor, Katherine; Bryan, Joe P; Escobar, Clara Yaseli; Cordón-Rosales, Celia

    2017-09-01

    Chagas disease is a neglected tropical disease that continues to affect populations living in extreme poverty in Latin America. After successful vector control programs, congenital transmission remains as a challenge to disease elimination. We used the PRECEDE-PROCEED planning model to develop strategies for neonatal screening of congenital Chagas disease in rural communities of Guatemala. These communities have persistent high triatomine infestations and low access to healthcare. We used mixed methods with multiple stakeholders to identify and address maternal-infant health behaviors through semi-structured interviews, participatory group meetings, archival reviews and a cross-sectional survey in high risk communities. From December 2015 to April 2016, we jointly developed a strategy to illustratively advertise newborn screening at the Health Center. The strategy included socioculturally appropriate promotional and educational material, in collaboration with midwives, nurses and nongovernmental organizations. By March 2016, eight of 228 (3.9%) pregnant women had been diagnosed with T. cruzi at the Health Center. Up to this date, no neonatal screening had been performed. By August 2016, seven of eight newborns born to Chagas seropositive women had been parasitologically screened at the Health Center, according to international standards. Thus, we implemented a successful community-based neonatal screening strategy to promote congenital Chagas disease healthcare in a rural setting. The success of the health promotion strategies developed will depend on local access to maternal-infant services, integration with detection of other congenital diseases and reliance on community participation in problem and solution definition.

  7. Towards Chagas disease elimination: Neonatal screening for congenital transmission in rural communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela Marie Pennington

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease is a neglected tropical disease that continues to affect populations living in extreme poverty in Latin America. After successful vector control programs, congenital transmission remains as a challenge to disease elimination. We used the PRECEDE-PROCEED planning model to develop strategies for neonatal screening of congenital Chagas disease in rural communities of Guatemala. These communities have persistent high triatomine infestations and low access to healthcare. We used mixed methods with multiple stakeholders to identify and address maternal-infant health behaviors through semi-structured interviews, participatory group meetings, archival reviews and a cross-sectional survey in high risk communities. From December 2015 to April 2016, we jointly developed a strategy to illustratively advertise newborn screening at the Health Center. The strategy included socioculturally appropriate promotional and educational material, in collaboration with midwives, nurses and nongovernmental organizations. By March 2016, eight of 228 (3.9% pregnant women had been diagnosed with T. cruzi at the Health Center. Up to this date, no neonatal screening had been performed. By August 2016, seven of eight newborns born to Chagas seropositive women had been parasitologically screened at the Health Center, according to international standards. Thus, we implemented a successful community-based neonatal screening strategy to promote congenital Chagas disease healthcare in a rural setting. The success of the health promotion strategies developed will depend on local access to maternal-infant services, integration with detection of other congenital diseases and reliance on community participation in problem and solution definition.

  8. Quantifying Transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Transmissibility is the defining characteristic of infectious diseases. Quantifying transmission matters for understanding infectious disease epidemiology and designing evidence-based disease control programs. Tracing individual transmission events can be achieved by epidemiological investigation coupled with pathogen typing or genome sequencing. Individual infectiousness can be estimated by measuring pathogen loads, but few studies have directly estimated the ability of infected hosts to transmit to uninfected hosts. Individuals' opportunities to transmit infection are dependent on behavioral and other risk factors relevant given the transmission route of the pathogen concerned. Transmission at the population level can be quantified through knowledge of risk factors in the population or phylogeographic analysis of pathogen sequence data. Mathematical model-based approaches require estimation of the per capita transmission rate and basic reproduction number, obtained by fitting models to case data and/or analysis of pathogen sequence data. Heterogeneities in infectiousness, contact behavior, and susceptibility can have substantial effects on the epidemiology of an infectious disease, so estimates of only mean values may be insufficient. For some pathogens, super-shedders (infected individuals who are highly infectious) and super-spreaders (individuals with more opportunities to transmit infection) may be important. Future work on quantifying transmission should involve integrated analyses of multiple data sources.

  9. Self-propagative replication of Aβ oligomers suggests potential transmissibility in Alzheimer disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar

    Full Text Available The aggregation of amyloid-β (Aβ peptide and its deposition in parts of the brain form the central processes in the etiology of Alzheimer disease (AD. The low-molecular weight oligomers of Aβ aggregates (2 to 30 mers are known to be the primary neurotoxic agents whose mechanisms of cellular toxicity and synaptic dysfunction have received substantial attention in the recent years. However, how these toxic agents proliferate and induce widespread amyloid deposition throughout the brain, and what mechanism is involved in the amplification and propagation of toxic oligomer species, are far from clear. Emerging evidence based on transgenic mice models indicates a transmissible nature of Aβ aggregates and implicates a prion-like mechanism of oligomer propagation, which manifests as the dissemination and proliferation of Aβ toxicity. Despite accumulating evidence in support of a transmissible nature of Aβ aggregates, a clear, molecular-level understanding of this intriguing mechanism is lacking. Recently, we reported the characterization of unique replicating oligomers of Aβ42 (12-24 mers in vitro called Large Fatty Acid-derived Oligomers (LFAOs (Kumar et al., 2012, J. Biol. Chem. In the current report, we establish that LFAOs possess physiological activity by activating NF-κB in human neuroblastoma cells, and determine the experimental parameters that control the efficiency of LFAO replication by self-propagation. These findings constitute the first detailed report on monomer - oligomer lateral propagation reactions that may constitute potential mechanism governing transmissibility among Aβ oligomers. These data support the previous reports on transmissible mechanisms observed in transgenic animal models.

  10. No between-pen transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in vaccinated pigs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roermund, van H.J.W.; Eblé, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Dekker, A.

    2010-01-01

    Many studies have shown transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) within groups of pigs, even when vaccinated, but only limited information is available on transmission between pens. Three new experiments were carried out in two replicates, which consisted of infectious pigs housed in a

  11. Aerosol transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus Asia-1 under experimental conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colenutt, C.; Gonzales, J.L.; Paton, D.J.; Gloster, J.; Nelson, N.; Sanders, C.

    2016-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) control measures rely on understanding of virus transmission mechanisms. Direct contact between naïve and infected animals or spread by contaminated fomites is prevented by quarantines and rigorous decontamination procedures during outbreaks. Transmission of

  12. The fusion rate in the transmission resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaendel, M.

    1992-01-01

    Resonant transmission of deuterons through a chain of target deuterons in a metal matrix has been suggested as an explanation for the cold fusion phenomena. In this paper the fusion rate in such transmission resonance models is estimated, and the basic physical constraints are discussed. The dominating contribution to the fusion yield is found to come from metastable states. The fusion rate is well described by the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin approximation and appears to be much too small to explain the experimental anomalies

  13. [Anorectal manifestations of sexually transmissible diseases. Kaposi's sarcoma].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libeskind, M; Malbran, J; Agard, D; Pannetier, C; Lecouillard, C; Ivanovic, A

    1984-01-01

    The proctologist is above all concerned with the known recrudescence of venereal diseases. Examples reviewed are diseases of bacterial origin (syphilis, gonorrhea, soft chancre, donovanosis and chlamydiosis), appropriate antibiotic therapy and diseases of viral origin (herpes, condyloma acuminatum). Also noted are other bacterial, viral and parasitic diseases and, indeed, cancers of which Kaposi's sarcoma is the example, even though these are not manifested anorectally. New data on Kaposi's sarcoma, its' relationships with venereal disease and AIDS are presented. With these complex problems, the central role of male homosexuality and lowered cellular immunity widens considerably the professional scope of the proctologist.

  14. Analytical Model for High Impedance Fault Analysis in Transmission Lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Maximov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A high impedance fault (HIF normally occurs when an overhead power line physically breaks and falls to the ground. Such faults are difficult to detect because they often draw small currents which cannot be detected by conventional overcurrent protection. Furthermore, an electric arc accompanies HIFs, resulting in fire hazard, damage to electrical devices, and risk with human life. This paper presents an analytical model to analyze the interaction between the electric arc associated to HIFs and a transmission line. A joint analytical solution to the wave equation for a transmission line and a nonlinear equation for the arc model is presented. The analytical model is validated by means of comparisons between measured and calculated results. Several cases of study are presented which support the foundation and accuracy of the proposed model.

  15. Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danson, F Mark; Giraudoux, Patrick; Craig, Philip S

    2006-01-01

    Recent research in central China has suggested that the most likely transmission mechanism for Echinococcus multilocularis to humans is via domestic dogs which are allowed to roam freely and hunt (infected) small mammals within areas close to villages or in areas of tented pasture. This assertion has led to the hypothesis that there is a landscape control on transmission risk since the proximity of suitable habitat for susceptible small mammals appears to be the key. We have tested this hypothesis in a number of endemic areas in China, notably south Gansu Province and the Tibetan region of western Sichuan Province. The fundamental landscape control is its effect at a regional scale on small mammal species assemblages (susceptible species are not ubiquitous) and, at a local scale, the spatial distributions of small mammal populations. To date the research has examined relationships between landscape composition and patterns of human infection, landscape and small mammal distributions and recently the relationships between landscape and dog infection rates. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk. This paper reviews the progress that has been made so far in spatial modeling of the ecology of E. multilocularis with particular reference to China, outlines current research issues, and describes a framework for building a spatial-temporal model of transmission ecology.

  16. Prioritization of Companion Animal Transmissible Diseases for Policy Intervention in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cito, F.; Rijks, J.; Rantsios, A.T.

    2016-01-01

    A number of papers have been published on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in farm animals and wildlife, based either on semiquantitative or truly quantitative methods, but there is no published literature on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in companion animals. In this s...... reptiles. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to generate accurate priority lists according to narrower and more specific objectives....

  17. [Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

    2013-09-01

    Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

  18. Light aircraft sound transmission studies - Noise reduction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwal, Mahabir S.; Heitman, Karen E.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

    1987-01-01

    Experimental tests conducted on the fuselage of a single-engine Piper Cherokee light aircraft suggest that the cabin interior noise can be reduced by increasing the transmission loss of the dominant sound transmission paths and/or by increasing the cabin interior sound absorption. The validity of using a simple room equation model to predict the cabin interior sound-pressure level for different fuselage and exterior sound field conditions is also presented. The room equation model is based on the sound power flow balance for the cabin space and utilizes the measured transmitted sound intensity data. The room equation model predictions were considered good enough to be used for preliminary acoustical design studies.

  19. Zika virus transmission to mouse ear by mosquito bite: a laboratory model that replicates the natural transmission process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secundino, Nagila Francinete Costa; Chaves, Barbara Aparecida; Orfano, Alessandra Silva; Silveira, Karine Renata Dias; Rodrigues, Nilton Barnabe; Campolina, Thais Bonifácio; Nacif-Pimenta, Rafael; Villegas, Luiz Eduardo Martinez; Silva, Breno Melo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Norris, Douglas Eric; Pimenta, Paulo Filemon Paolucci

    2017-07-20

    Zika disease has transformed into a serious global health problem due to the rapid spread of the arbovirus and alarming severity including congenital complications, microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted to humans through the bite of an infective mosquito, with Aedes aegypti being the main vector. We successfully developed a ZIKV experimental transmission model by single infectious Ae. aegypti bite to a laboratory mouse using circulating Brazilian strains of both arbovirus and vector. Mosquitoes were orally infected and single Ae. aegypti were allowed to feed on mouse ears 14 days post-infection. Additionally, salivary gland (SG) homogenates from infected mosquitoes were intrathoracically inoculated into naïve Ae. aegypti. Mosquito and mouse tissue samples were cultured in C6/36 cells and processed by quantitative real-time PCR. A total of 26 Ae. aegypti were allowed to feed individually on mouse ears. Of these, 17 mosquitoes fed, all to full engorgement. The transmission rate of ZIKV by bite from these engorged mosquitoes to mouse ears was 100%. The amount of virus inoculated into the ears by bites ranged from 2 × 10 2 -2.1 × 10 10 ZIKV cDNA copies and was positively correlated with ZIKV cDNA quantified from SGs dissected from mosquitoes post-feeding. Replicating ZIKV was confirmed in macerated SGs (2.45 × 10 7 cDNA copies), mouse ear tissue (1.15 × 10 3 cDNA copies, and mosquitoes 14 days post-intrathoracic inoculation (1.49 × 10 7 cDNA copies) by cytopathic effect in C6/36 cell culture and qPCR. Our model illustrates successful transmission of ZIKV by an infectious mosquito bite to a live vertebrate host. This approach offers a comprehensive tool for evaluating the development of infection in and transmission from mosquitoes, and the vertebrate-ZIKV interaction and progression of infection following a natural transmission process.

  20. Mule deer spatial association patterns and potential implications for transmission of an epizootic disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Fernanda Mejía-Salazar

    Full Text Available Animal social behaviour can have important effects on the long-term dynamics of diseases. In particular, preferential spatial relationships between individuals can lead to differences in the rates of disease spread within a population. We examined the concurrent influence of genetic relatedness, sex, age, home range overlap, time of year, and prion disease status on proximal associations of adult Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus in a chronic wasting disease endemic area. We also quantified the temporal stability of these associations across different sex, age, and disease status classes. We used three years of high frequency telemetry data from 74 individuals to record encounters within 25 m of each other, and to calculate seasonal home range overlap measured by volume of intersection (VI. The strength of pairwise spatial association between adult mule deer was independent of genetic relatedness, age and disease status. Seasonal variation in association strength was not consistent across years, perhaps due to annual changes in weather conditions. The influence of home range overlap on association strength varied seasonally, whereby associations were stronger in pre-rut and fawning than in the rest of the seasons. The sexes of individuals also interacted with both VI and season. At increasing levels of VI, associations were stronger between females than between males and between females and males. The strongest associations in pre-rut were between males, while the strongest in rut were between females and males. The temporal stability of associations was markedly dependant on the sex and the diagnosis of the associating pair. Our findings highlight the importance of considering concurrent effects of biological and environmental factors when seeking to understand the role of social preference in behavioural ecology and disease spread. Applying this knowledge in epidemiological modelling will shed light on the dynamics of

  1. Models of marine molluscan diseases: Trends and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Eric N; Hofmann, Eileen E

    2015-10-01

    Disease effects on host population dynamics and the transmission of pathogens between hosts are two important challenges for understanding how epizootics wax and wane and how disease influences host population dynamics. For the management of marine shellfish resources, marine diseases pose additional challenges in early intervention after the appearance of disease, management of the diseased population to limit a decline in host abundance, and application of measures to restrain that decline once it occurs. Mathematical models provide one approach for quantifying these effects and addressing the competing goals of managing the diseased population versus managing the disease. The majority of models for molluscan diseases fall into three categories distinguished by these competing goals. (1) Models that consider disease effects on the host population tend to focus on pathogen proliferation within the host. Many of the well-known molluscan diseases are pandemic, in that they routinely reach high prevalence rapidly over large geographic expanses, are characterized by transmission that does not depend upon a local source, and exert a significant influence on host population dynamics. Models focused on disease proliferation examine the influence of environmental change on host population metrics and provide a basis to better manage diseased stocks. Such models are readily adapted to questions of fishery management and habitat restoration. (2) Transmission models are designed to understand the mechanisms triggering epizootics, identify factors impeding epizootic development, and evaluate controls on the rate of disease spread over the host's range. Transmission models have been used extensively to study terrestrial diseases, yet little attention has been given to their potential for understanding the epidemiology of marine molluscan diseases. For management of diseases of wild stocks, transmission models open up a range of options, including the application of area

  2. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  3. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  4. Sound transmission through lightweight double-leaf partitions: theoretical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Lu, T. J.; Woodhouse, J.; Langley, R. S.; Evans, J.

    2005-09-01

    This paper presents theoretical modelling of the sound transmission loss through double-leaf lightweight partitions stiffened with periodically placed studs. First, by assuming that the effect of the studs can be replaced with elastic springs uniformly distributed between the sheathing panels, a simple smeared model is established. Second, periodic structure theory is used to develop a more accurate model taking account of the discrete placing of the studs. Both models treat incident sound waves in the horizontal plane only, for simplicity. The predictions of the two models are compared, to reveal the physical mechanisms determining sound transmission. The smeared model predicts relatively simple behaviour, in which the only conspicuous features are associated with coincidence effects with the two types of structural wave allowed by the partition model, and internal resonances of the air between the panels. In the periodic model, many more features are evident, associated with the structure of pass- and stop-bands for structural waves in the partition. The models are used to explain the effects of incidence angle and of the various system parameters. The predictions are compared with existing test data for steel plates with wooden stiffeners, and good agreement is obtained.

  5. Compassionate Love as a Predictor of Reduced HIV Disease Progression and Transmission Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidemarie Kremer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. This study examined if compassionate love (CL predicts HIV disease progression and transmission risk. Scientific study of CL emerged with Underwood’s working model of other-centered CL, defining five criteria: free choice, cognitive understanding, valuing/empowering, openness/receptivity for spirituality, and response of the heart. Method. This 10-year cohort study collected 6-monthly interviews/essays on coping with HIV and trauma of 177 people with HIV in South Florida. Secondary qualitative content analysis on other-centered CL inductively added the component of CL towards self. Deductively, we coded the presence of the five criteria of CL and rated the benefit of CL for the recipient on a 6-point Likert scale. Growth-curve modeling (reduced to 4 years due to cohort effects investigated if CL predicts CD4 slope (HIV disease progression and cumulative viral load detection (transmission risk. Results. Valuing/empowering and cognitive understanding were the essential criteria for CL to confer long-term benefits. CL had a higher benefit for recipients if given out of free choice. High scores of CL towards self were reciprocal with receiving (93% and giving (77% other-centered CL. Conversely, those rated low on CL towards self were least likely to score high on receiving (38% and giving (49% other-centered CL. Growth-curve modeling showed that CL towards self predicted 4-year cumulative undetectable viral load (independent from sociocultural differences, substance use disorder, baseline CD4 and viral load. Those high versus low on CL self were 2.25 times more likely to have undetectable viral load at baseline and 1.49 times more likely to maintain undetectable viral load over time. CL towards self predicted CD4 preservation after controlling for differences in CL giving. Conclusions. CL towards self is potentially the seed of being expressive and receptive of CL. Health care professionals prepared to walk the extra mile for those who

  6. Landscape epidemiology: An emerging perspective in the mapping and modelling of disease and disease risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nnadi Nnaemeka Emmanuel

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Landscape epidemiology describes how the temporal dynamics of host, vector, and pathogen populations interact spatially within a permissive environment to enable transmission. It also aims at understanding the vegetation and geologic conditions that are necessary for the maintenance and transmission of a particular pathogen. The current review describes the evolution of landscape epidemiology. As a science, it also highlights the various methods of mapping and modeling diseases and disease risk factors. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk.

  7. Animal models for oral transmission of Listeria monocytogenes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E F D'Orazio

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has been recognized as a food borne pathogen in humans since the 1980s, but we still understand very little about oral transmission of L. monocytogenes or the host factors that determine susceptibility to gastrointestinal infection, due to the lack of an appropriate small animal model of oral listeriosis. Early feeding trials suggested that many animals were highly resistant to oral infection, and the more reproducible intravenous or intraperitoneal routes of inoculation soon came to be favored. There are a fair number of previously published studies using an oral infection route, but the work varies widely in terms of bacterial strain choice, the methods used for oral transmission, and various manipulations used to enhance infectivity. This mini review will summarize the published literature using oral routes of L. monocytogenes infection and will highlight recent technological advances that have made oral infection a more attractive model system.

  8. A rumor transmission model with incubation in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jianwen; Wu, Wenjiang

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a rumor transmission model with incubation period and constant recruitment in social networks. By carrying out an analysis of the model, we study the stability of rumor-free equilibrium and come to the local stable condition of the rumor equilibrium. We use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations for showing the global stability of the rumor equilibrium. And when ℜ0 = 1, the new model occurs a transcritical bifurcation. Furthermore, numerical simulations are used to support the analysis. At last, some conclusions are presented.

  9. Method of modeling transmissions for real-time simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebbale, Kumaraswamy V.

    2012-09-25

    A transmission modeling system includes an in-gear module that determines an in-gear acceleration when a vehicle is in gear. A shift module determines a shift acceleration based on a clutch torque when the vehicle is shifting between gears. A shaft acceleration determination module determines a shaft acceleration based on at least one of the in-gear acceleration and the shift acceleration.

  10. Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

    2016-01-01

    Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology. PMID:27070316

  11. Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

    2017-05-04

    Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the  Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.

  12. [Ticks and transmission of some important diseases by ticks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazyağci, Aycan Nuriye; Aydenızöz, Meral

    2010-01-01

    Ticks which are commonly found all around the world are ectoparasites which are obliged to suck blood from vertebrates such as mammals and birds during all of their periods of develeopment. They may cause toxicities and paralyses in the course of blood sucking through saliva injection and the attachment sites may become ports of entry for secondary agents. Healthy animals that are severely infested by ticks can show a decreased yield and anemia. Young and sick animals can even die. Besides this, ticks are both biological and mechanical vectors for viruses, bacteria, rickettsias, spirochaetas, protozoons and helminths. Ten percent of the ticks identified in the world are associated with 200 diseases. In this review the taxonomy and morphology of ticks, some of the important diseases they carry and the diagnosis and treatment of these diseases are mentioned.

  13. Place-based social contact and mixing: a typology of generic meeting places of relevance for infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strömgren, M; Holm, E; Dahlström, Ö; Ekberg, J; Eriksson, H; Spreco, A; Timpka, T

    2017-09-01

    This study aims to develop a typology of generic meeting places based on social contact and mixing of relevance for infectious disease transmission. Data were collected by means of a contact diary survey conducted on a representative sample of the Swedish population. The typology is derived from a cluster analysis accounting for four dimensions associated with transmission risk: visit propensity and its characteristics in terms of duration, number of other persons present and likelihood of physical contact. In the analysis, we also study demographic, socio-economic and geographical differences in the propensity of visiting meeting places. The typology identifies the family venue, the fixed activity site, the family vehicle, the trading plaza and the social network hub as generic meeting places. The meeting place typology represents a spatially explicit account of social contact and mixing relevant to infectious disease modelling, where the social context of the outbreak can be highlighted in light of the actual infectious disease.

  14. CystiSim - an agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission and control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission...... interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes...... and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts...

  15. Mathematical models for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: Challenges and prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaliannagounder Krishnamoorthy

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical models developed for describing the dynamics of transmission, infection, disease and control of lymphatic filariasis (LF gained momentum following the 1997 World Health Assembly resolution and the launching of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF in 2000. Model applications could provide valuable inputs for making decisions while implementing large scale programmes. However these models need to be evaluated at different epidemiological settings for optimization and fine-tuning with new knowledge and understanding on infection/disease dynamics. Discussion EPIFIL and LYMFASIM are the two mathematical simulation models currently available for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. Both models have been used for prediction and evaluation of control programmes under research settings. Their widespread application in evaluating large-scale elimination programmes warrants validation of assumptions governing the dynamics of infection and disease in different epidemiological settings. Furthermore, the predictive power of the models for decision support can be enhanced by generating knowledge on some important issues that pose challenges and incorporating such knowledge into the models. We highlight factors related to the efficacy of the drugs of choice, their mode of action, and the possibility that drug resistance may develop; the role of vector-parasite combinations; the magnitude of transmission thresholds; host-parasite interactions and their effects on the dynamics of infection and immunity; parasite biology, and progression to LF-associated disease. Summary The two mathematical models developed offer potential decision making tools for transmission and control of LF. In view of the goals of the GPELF, the predictive power of these models needs to be enhanced for their wide-spread application in large scale programmes. Assimilation and translation of new information into the models is

  16. Preventing Airborne Disease Transmission: Review of Methods for Ventilation Design in Health Care Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliabadi, Amir A.; Rogak, Steven N.; Bartlett, Karen H.; Green, Sheldon I.

    2011-01-01

    Health care facility ventilation design greatly affects disease transmission by aerosols. The desire to control infection in hospitals and at the same time to reduce their carbon footprint motivates the use of unconventional solutions for building design and associated control measures. This paper considers indoor sources and types of infectious aerosols, and pathogen viability and infectivity behaviors in response to environmental conditions. Aerosol dispersion, heat and mass transfer, deposition in the respiratory tract, and infection mechanisms are discussed, with an emphasis on experimental and modeling approaches. Key building design parameters are described that include types of ventilation systems (mixing, displacement, natural and hybrid), air exchange rate, temperature and relative humidity, air flow distribution structure, occupancy, engineered disinfection of air (filtration and UV radiation), and architectural programming (source and activity management) for health care facilities. The paper describes major findings and suggests future research needs in methods for ventilation design of health care facilities to prevent airborne infection risk. PMID:22162813

  17. Multi-agent systems in epidemiology: a first step for computational biology in the study of vector-borne disease transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guégan Jean-François

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational biology is often associated with genetic or genomic studies only. However, thanks to the increase of computational resources, computational models are appreciated as useful tools in many other scientific fields. Such modeling systems are particularly relevant for the study of complex systems, like the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases. So far, mathematical models remain the main tool for the epidemiological and ecological analysis of infectious diseases, with SIR models could be seen as an implicit standard in epidemiology. Unfortunately, these models are based on differential equations and, therefore, can become very rapidly unmanageable due to the too many parameters which need to be taken into consideration. For instance, in the case of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in wildlife many different potential host species could be involved in the life-cycle of disease transmission, and SIR models might not be the most suitable tool to truly capture the overall disease circulation within that environment. This limitation underlines the necessity to develop a standard spatial model that can cope with the transmission of disease in realistic ecosystems. Results Computational biology may prove to be flexible enough to take into account the natural complexity observed in both natural and man-made ecosystems. In this paper, we propose a new computational model to study the transmission of infectious diseases in a spatially explicit context. We developed a multi-agent system model for vector-borne disease transmission in a realistic spatial environment. Conclusion Here we describe in detail the general behavior of this model that we hope will become a standard reference for the study of vector-borne disease transmission in wildlife. To conclude, we show how this simple model could be easily adapted and modified to be used as a common framework for further research developments in this field.

  18. A history of chagas disease transmission, control, and re-emergence in peri-rural La Joya, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Stephen; Castillo Neyra, Ricardo; Quispe Machaca, Víctor R; Ancca Juárez, Jenny; Chou Chu, Lily; Verastegui, Manuela Renee; Moscoso Apaza, Giovanna M; Bocángel, César D; Tustin, Aaron W; Sterling, Charles R; Comrie, Andrew C; Náquira, César; Cornejo del Carpio, Juan G; Gilman, Robert H; Bern, Caryn; Levy, Michael Z

    2011-02-22

    The history of Chagas disease control in Peru and many other nations is marked by scattered and poorly documented vector control campaigns. The complexities of human migration and sporadic control campaigns complicate evaluation of the burden of Chagas disease and dynamics of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional serological and entomological study to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of T. cruzi transmission in a peri-rural region of La Joya, Peru. We use a multivariate catalytic model and Bayesian methods to estimate incidence of infection over time and thereby elucidate the complex history of transmission in the area. Of 1,333 study participants, 101 (7.6%; 95% CI: 6.2-9.0%) were confirmed T. cruzi seropositive. Spatial clustering of parasitic infection was found in vector insects, but not in human cases. Expanded catalytic models suggest that transmission was interrupted in the study area in 1996 (95% credible interval: 1991-2000), with a resultant decline in the average annual incidence of infection from 0.9% (95% credible interval: 0.6-1.3%) to 0.1% (95% credible interval: 0.005-0.3%). Through a search of archival newspaper reports, we uncovered documentation of a 1995 vector control campaign, and thereby independently validated the model estimates. High levels of T. cruzi transmission had been ongoing in peri-rural La Joya prior to interruption of parasite transmission through a little-documented vector control campaign in 1995. Despite the efficacy of the 1995 control campaign, T. cruzi was rapidly reemerging in vector populations in La Joya, emphasizing the need for continuing surveillance and control at the rural-urban interface.

  19. Theory and Circuit Model for Lossy Coaxial Transmission Line

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Genoni, T. C.; Anderson, C. N.; Clark, R. E.; Gansz-Torres, J.; Rose, D. V.; Welch, Dale Robert

    2017-04-01

    The theory of signal propagation in lossy coaxial transmission lines is revisited and new approximate analytic formulas for the line impedance and attenuation are derived. The accuracy of these formulas from DC to 100 GHz is demonstrated by comparison to numerical solutions of the exact field equations. Based on this analysis, a new circuit model is described which accurately reproduces the line response over the entire frequency range. Circuit model calculations are in excellent agreement with the numerical and analytic results, and with finite-difference-time-domain simulations which resolve the skindepths of the conducting walls.

  20. Phase space model for transmission of light beam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Shinian

    1989-01-01

    Based on Fermat's principle of ray optics, the Hamiltonian of an optical ray is derived by comparison with classical mechanics. A phase space model of light beam is proposed, assuming that the light beam, regarded as a group of rays, can be described by an ellipse in the μ-phase space. Therefore, the transmission of light beam is represented by the phase space matrix transformation. By means of this non-wave formulation, the same results are obtained as those from wave equation such as Kogelnik's ABCD law. As an example of the application on this model, the matching problem of optical cavity is solved

  1. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-02-17

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.

  2. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A

  3. MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND TVP-VAR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ROŞOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is a subject of major importance for central banks because, by using these measures, central banks can achieve their purpose of ensuring price stability without neglecting the objective of sustainable economic growth. In order to analyze the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania, a time varying structural vector autoregression model is estimated, by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the posterior evolution. The conclusions of the empirical study are: both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the investigated period of time, the systematic response of the interest rate to shocks in inflation and unemployment being faster over the recent period. Also, non-policy shocks seem more important than interest rate shocks in explaining inflation and unemployment evolution.

  4. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  5. Modeling and Validation of Environmental Suitability for Schistosomiasis Transmission Using Remote Sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; Poda, Jean-Noël; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg; Raso, Giovanna

    2015-11-01

    Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health. We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children. Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire. A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail

  6. Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Elizabeth C; Kelly, Michael R; Ochocki, Brad M; Akinwumi, Segun M; Hamre, Karen E S; Tien, Joseph H; Eisenberg, Marisa C

    2017-05-07

    Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and a range of other features. These differences can affect model dynamics, with different models potentially yielding different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of mathematical models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess model distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether inferences from the model are robust to realistic variations in model structure). In this paper, we examined the effects of uncertainty in model structure in the context of epidemic cholera, testing a range of models with differences in transmission and loss of immunity structure, based on known features of cholera epidemiology. We fit these models to simulated epidemic and long-term data, as well as data from the 2006 Angola epidemic. We evaluated model distinguishability based on fit to data, and whether the parameter values, model behavior, and forecasting ability can accurately be inferred from incidence data. In general, all models were able to successfully fit to all data sets, both real and simulated, regardless of whether the model generating the simulated data matched the fitted model. However, in the long-term data, the best model fits were achieved when the loss of immunity structures matched those of the model that simulated the data. Two parameters, one representing person-to-person transmission and the other representing the reporting rate, were accurately estimated across all models, while the remaining parameters showed broad variation across the different models and data sets. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was often poorly estimated even using the correct model, due to practical unidentifiability issues in the waterborne transmission pathway which were consistent across all models. Forecasting

  7. Mathematical modeling of agricultural fires beneath high voltage transmission lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Zohri, Emad H.; Shafey, Hamdy M.; Abdel-Salam, M.; Ahmed, A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for agricultural fires based on a multi-phase formulation. The model includes dehydration and pyrolysis of agricultural fuel and pyrolysis products. The model considers a homogeneous distribution of the agricultural solid fuel particles, interacting with the gas flow via source terms. These terms include: drag forces, production of water vapour and pyrolysis products, radiative and convective heat exchange. A multi-phase radiative transfer equation for absorbing-emitting medium is considered to account for the radiative heat exchange between the gas and solid phases of the fire. The main outputs of the present model are most important to study the influence of agricultural fire occurring beneath high voltage transmission lines. The agricultural fire causes a flashover due to the ambient temperature rise and soot accumulation on the insulator of these transmission lines. Numerical results of the present model are obtained for flat grassland fires to study the effects of wind velocity, solid fuel moisture content and ignition length on some selected fire outputs. These outputs include the temperature, velocity, soot volume fraction fields of the gas phase, together with fire propagation rate and flame geometry. The numerical results are compared to the available experimental work in the literature. -- Research highlights: → The model is sensitive to the initial condition of the ignition length affecting the fire propagation rate and width. → The model predicts the effects of both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content on fire propagation rate, in agreement with the available experimental work in the literature. → The model shows that both the wind velocity and the fuel moisture content are important factors affecting the fire plume thickness, location, and inclination. → The model is able to visualize the flame geometry through tracing radiative heat rates exceeding a threshold value for flame visibility (60 k

  8. TRANSMISSION SPECTRA OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL HOT JUPITER MODEL ATMOSPHERES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortney, J. J.; Shabram, M.; Showman, A. P.; Lian, Y.; Lewis, N. K.; Freedman, R. S.; Marley, M. S.

    2010-01-01

    We compute models of the transmission spectra of planets HD 209458b, HD 189733b, and generic hot Jupiters. We examine the effects of temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity for the generic planets as a guide to understanding transmission spectra in general. We find that carbon dioxide absorption at 4.4 and 15 μm is prominent at high metallicity, and is a clear metallicity indicator. For HD 209458b and HD 189733b, we compute spectra for both one-dimensional and three-dimensional model atmospheres and examine the differences between them. The differences are usually small, but can be large if atmospheric temperatures are near important chemical abundance boundaries. The calculations for the three-dimensional atmospheres, and their comparison with data, serve as constraints on these dynamical models that complement the secondary eclipse and light curve data sets. For HD 209458b, even if TiO and VO gases are abundant on the dayside, their abundances can be considerably reduced on the cooler planetary limb. However, given the predicted limb temperatures and TiO abundances, the model's optical opacity is too high. For HD 189733b we find a good match with some infrared data sets and constrain the altitude of a postulated haze layer. For this planet, substantial differences can exist between the transmission spectra of the leading and trailing hemispheres, which are an excellent probe of carbon chemistry. In thermochemical equilibrium, the cooler leading hemisphere is methane-dominated, and the hotter trailing hemisphere is CO-dominated, but these differences may be eliminated by non-equilibrium chemistry due to vertical mixing. It may be possible to constrain the carbon chemistry of this planet, and its spatial variation, with James Webb Space Telescope.

  9. A delay differential equation model for dengue transmission with regular visits to a mosquito breeding site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaacob, Y.; Yeak, S. H.; Lim, R. S.; Soewono, E.

    2015-03-01

    Dengue disease has been known as one of widely transmitted vector-borne diseases which potentially affects millions of people throughout the world especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries. One of the main factors contributing in the complication of the transmission process is the mobility of people in which people may get infection in the places far from their home. Here we construct a delay differential equation model for dengue transmission in a closed population where regular visits of people to a mosquito breeding site out of their residency such as traditional market take place daily. Basic reproductive ratio of the system is obtained and depends on the ratio between the outgoing rates of susceptible human and infective human. It is shown that the increase of mobility with different variation of mobility rates may contribute to different level of basic reproductive ratio as well as different level of outbreaks.

  10. A Systematic Review Regarding Tonometry and the Transmission of Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Nicole; Hodge, William; Li, Bruce

    2018-03-01

    Tonometry has been identified as a common method for measuring the intraocular pressure in patients. The direct contact between the tonometer and the eye may contribute to the risk of cross infection, especially of viral particles, from one patient to another. A systematic review was undertaken to address the likelihood of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and prion diseases transmission through the use of tonometers. Additionally, a comparison of the current tonometer disinfection methods is provided to assist with identifying which technique effectively reduces the risk of disease transmission. An electronic literature search was conducted using the following databases: Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Biosis Previews, Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Google Scholar. Dissertation indexes were also searched, and these included: Dissertations and Abstracts, and Dissertations and Abstracts - UK/Ireland. Additionally, the Clinicaltrials.gov trial registry was searched to identify any other relevant literature. Two independent reviewers critically appraised the articles retrieved through the literature search. In total, 11 unique studies were deemed relevant for this systematic review. The available evidence demonstrated that the use of tonometers contributes to the transmission of these infectious diseases in vitro . The results also demonstrated variability in determining the most effective tonometer sterilization technique against these infectious diseases in vitro . There was limited evidence available regarding the transmission of HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and prion diseases through the use of tonometers. Additionally, due to the variability regarding the most effective sterilization techniques, it is difficult to identify which sterilization technique is most effective or adequately effective against these infectious diseases. Future research studies regarding infectious disease transmission through tonometry and

  11. A Systematic Review Regarding Tonometry and the Transmission of Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Nicole; Hodge, William; Li, Bruce

    2018-01-01

    Tonometry has been identified as a common method for measuring the intraocular pressure in patients. The direct contact between the tonometer and the eye may contribute to the risk of cross infection, especially of viral particles, from one patient to another. A systematic review was undertaken to address the likelihood of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and prion diseases transmission through the use of tonometers. Additionally, a comparison of the current tonometer disinfection methods is provided to assist with identifying which technique effectively reduces the risk of disease transmission. An electronic literature search was conducted using the following databases: Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Biosis Previews, Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Google Scholar. Dissertation indexes were also searched, and these included: Dissertations and Abstracts, and Dissertations and Abstracts - UK/Ireland. Additionally, the Clinicaltrials.gov trial registry was searched to identify any other relevant literature. Two independent reviewers critically appraised the articles retrieved through the literature search. In total, 11 unique studies were deemed relevant for this systematic review. The available evidence demonstrated that the use of tonometers contributes to the transmission of these infectious diseases in vitro. The results also demonstrated variability in determining the most effective tonometer sterilization technique against these infectious diseases in vitro. There was limited evidence available regarding the transmission of HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and prion diseases through the use of tonometers. Additionally, due to the variability regarding the most effective sterilization techniques, it is difficult to identify which sterilization technique is most effective or adequately effective against these infectious diseases. Future research studies regarding infectious disease transmission through tonometry and

  12. Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Gussmann, Maya Katrin

    2017-01-01

    the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most...... tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models....

  13. Lumped parametric model of the human ear for sound transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Bin; Gan, Rong Z

    2004-09-01

    A lumped parametric model of the human auditoria peripherals consisting of six masses suspended with six springs and ten dashpots was proposed. This model will provide the quantitative basis for the construction of a physical model of the human middle ear. The lumped model parameters were first identified using published anatomical data, and then determined through a parameter optimization process. The transfer function of the middle ear obtained from human temporal bone experiments with laser Doppler interferometers was used for creating the target function during the optimization process. It was found that, among 14 spring and dashpot parameters, there were five parameters which had pronounced effects on the dynamic behaviors of the model. The detailed discussion on the sensitivity of those parameters was provided with appropriate applications for sound transmission in the ear. We expect that the methods for characterizing the lumped model of the human ear and the model parameters will be useful for theoretical modeling of the ear function and construction of the ear physical model.

  14. Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline van den Driessche

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with a simple population model, the concept is developed for a threshold value of ℛ0 determining whether or not the disease dies out. The next generation matrix method of calculating ℛ0 in a compartmental model is described and illustrated. To address control strategies, type and target reproduction numbers are defined, as well as sensitivity and elasticity indices. These theoretical ideas are then applied to models that are formulated for West Nile virus in birds (a vector-borne disease, cholera in humans (a disease with two transmission pathways, anthrax in animals (a disease that can be spread by dead carcasses and spores, and Zika in humans (spread by mosquitoes and sexual contacts. Some parameter values from literature data are used to illustrate the results. Finally, references for other ways to calculate ℛ0 are given. These are useful for more complicated models that, for example, take account of variations in environmental fluctuation or stochasticity. Keywords: Basic reproduction number, Disease control, West Nile virus, Cholera, Anthrax, Zika virus

  15. Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vino, Thiripura; Singh, Gurmeet R; Davison, Belinda; Campbell, Patricia T; Lydeamore, Michael J; Robinson, Andrew; McVernon, Jodie; Tong, Steven Y C; Geard, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    Households are an important location for the transmission of communicable diseases. Social contact between household members is typically more frequent, of greater intensity, and is more likely to involve people of different age groups than contact occurring in the general community. Understanding household structure in different populations is therefore fundamental to explaining patterns of disease transmission in these populations. Indigenous populations in Australia tend to live in larger households than non-Indigenous populations, but limited data are available on the structure of these households, and how they differ between remote and urban communities. We have developed a novel approach to the collection of household structure data, suitable for use in a variety of contexts, which provides a detailed view of age, gender, and room occupancy patterns in remote and urban Australian Indigenous households. Here we report analysis of data collected using this tool, which quantifies the extent of crowding in Indigenous households, particularly in remote areas. We use these data to generate matrices of age-specific contact rates, as used by mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. To demonstrate the impact of household structure, we use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza-like illness in different populations. Our simulations suggest that outbreaks in remote populations are likely to spread more rapidly and to a greater extent than outbreaks in non-Indigenous populations.

  16. Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiripura Vino

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Households are an important location for the transmission of communicable diseases. Social contact between household members is typically more frequent, of greater intensity, and is more likely to involve people of different age groups than contact occurring in the general community. Understanding household structure in different populations is therefore fundamental to explaining patterns of disease transmission in these populations. Indigenous populations in Australia tend to live in larger households than non-Indigenous populations, but limited data are available on the structure of these households, and how they differ between remote and urban communities. We have developed a novel approach to the collection of household structure data, suitable for use in a variety of contexts, which provides a detailed view of age, gender, and room occupancy patterns in remote and urban Australian Indigenous households. Here we report analysis of data collected using this tool, which quantifies the extent of crowding in Indigenous households, particularly in remote areas. We use these data to generate matrices of age-specific contact rates, as used by mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. To demonstrate the impact of household structure, we use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza-like illness in different populations. Our simulations suggest that outbreaks in remote populations are likely to spread more rapidly and to a greater extent than outbreaks in non-Indigenous populations.

  17. Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie T Griffin

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools.We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS, mass screening and treatment (MSAT, and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs, vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year], LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (90% or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels.Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting, provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through

  18. Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

    2017-05-01

    Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

  19. Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10–11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive

  20. FIRST REPORT OF ACUTE CHAGAS DISEASE BY VECTOR TRANSMISSION IN RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Henrique Conde SANGENIS

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available SUMMARY Chagas disease (CD is an endemic anthropozoonosis from Latin America of which the main means of transmission is the contact of skin lesions or mucosa with the feces of triatomine bugs infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. In this article, we describe the first acute CD case acquired by vector transmission in the Rio de Janeiro State and confirmed by parasitological, serological and PCR tests. The patient presented acute cardiomyopathy and pericardial effusion without cardiac tamponade. Together with fever and malaise, a 3 cm wide erythematous, non-pruritic, papule compatible with a "chagoma" was found on his left wrist. This case report draws attention to the possible transmission of CD by non-domiciled native vectors in non-endemic areas. Therefore, acute CD should be included in the diagnostic workout of febrile diseases and acute myopericarditis in Rio de Janeiro.

  1. Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera) and vector transmission of Chagas disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, Janine M; Peterson, A Townsend; Carmona-Castro, Oscar; Moo-Llanes, David A; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Butrick, Morgan; Tun-Ku, Ezequiel; de la Cruz-Félix, Keynes; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N

    2015-01-01

    Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species, Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzi transmission. PMID:25993505

  2. Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera and vector transmission of Chagas disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janine M Ramsey

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species, Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzi transmission.

  3. The importance of hemovigilance in the transmission of infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto Juliano Martins

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Hemovigilance is an organized system of surveillance throughout the transfusion chain intended to evaluate information in order to prevent the appearance or recurrence of adverse reactions related to the use of blood products. Objective: The aims of this study were to assess the late reporting of incidents related to possible seroconversion in respect to age, marital status and ethnical background, annual variations in late reporting, the number of reports opened and closed, seroconversion of donors and transfusions of blood products within the window period. Methods: This retrospective, descriptive study used data on blood donations in the blood bank in Uberaba during the period from 2004 to 2011. Some socio-epidemiological characteristics of the donors and serology test results of donors and recipients were analyzed in respect to the late reporting of incidents related to possible seroconversion. The Chi-square test, odds ratio and a regression model were used for statistical analysis. Results: From 2004 to 2011, the blood bank in Uberaba collected 117,857 blood bags, 284 (0.24% of which were investigated for late reported incidents. The profile of the donors was less than 29 years old, unmarried and non-Whites. Differences in age (p-value < 0.0001, marital status (p-value = 0.0002 and ethnical background (p-value < 0.0001 were found to be statistically significant. There was no statistical difference between men and women (0.24% and 0.23% respectively; p-value = 0.951. The number of late reported incidents increased until 2008 followed by a downward trend until 2011. There were twelve cases of seroconversion in subsequent donations (seven human immunodeficiency virus, four hepatitis B and one hepatitis C with proven human immunodeficiency virus infection after screening of only one recipient. Conclusion: The twelve cases of seroconversion in donors with subsequent infection proven in one recipient underscores the importance of

  4. Transmission Delay Modeling of Packet Communication over Digital Subscriber Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Vodrazka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Certain multimedia and voice services, such as VoIP, IPTV, etc., are significantly delay sensitive and their performance is influenced by the overall transmission delay and its variance. One of the most common solutions used in access networks are xDSL lines, especially ADSL2+ or VDSL2. Although these subscriber lines also use packet communication, there are several differences and mechanisms, which influence their resulting delay. Their delay characteristics are also dependent on the individual settings of each xDSL provider, therefore we decided to investigate this area for typical commercially available lines in Czech Republic. Based on the measured values and experiments with real ADSL2+ lines we also developed a potential modeling method, which is presented in this article as well. The parameters for packet jitter based on the generalized Pareto distribution were modeled.

  5. Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J

    2016-07-01

    Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than

  6. Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Organ Donation: Is There Risk of Disease Transmission?

    OpenAIRE

    Holmes, Brandon B.; Diamond, Marc I.

    2012-01-01

    A new protocol suggests that patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are a viable source of tissue for organ transplantation. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that many neurodegenerative diseases, including ALS, might progress due to transcellular propagation of protein aggregation among neurons. Transmission of the disease state from donor to host thus may be possible under the permissive circumstances of graft transplantation. We argue for careful patient selection and ...

  7. A new mutation for Huntington disease following maternal transmission of an intermediate allele

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semaka, Alicia; Kay, Chris; Belfroid, René D. M.; Bijlsma, Emilia K.; Losekoot, Monique; van Langen, Irene M.; van Maarle, Merel C.; Oosterloo, Mayke; Hayden, Michael R.; van Belzen, Martine J.

    2015-01-01

    New mutations for Huntington disease (HD) originate from CAG repeat expansion of intermediate alleles (27-35 CAG). Expansions of such alleles into the pathological range (≥ 36 CAG) have been exclusively observed in paternal transmission. We report the occurrence of a new mutation that defies the

  8. Vaccination of pigs two weeks before infection significantly reduces transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eble, P.L.; Bouma, A.; Bruin, de M.G.M.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van F.; Oirschot, van J.T.; Dekker, A.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate whether and at what time interval could vaccination reduce transmission of foot-and-Mouth disease virus (FMDV) among pigs. Reduction of virus transmission by vaccination was determined experimentally. Transmission of FMDV was studied in three groups of

  9. Lossy transmission line model of hydrofractured well dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patzek, T.W. [Department of Materials Science and Mineral Engineering, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); De, A. [Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The real-time detection of hydrofracture growth is crucial to the successful operation of water, CO{sub 2} or steam injection wells in low-permeability reservoirs and to the prevention of subsidence and well failure. In this paper, we describe propagation of very low frequency (1-10 to 100 Hz) Stoneley waves in a fluid-filled wellbore and their interactions with the fundamental wave mode in a vertical hydrofracture. We demonstrate that Stoneley-wave loses energy to the fracture and the energy transfer from the wellbore to the fracture opening is most efficient in soft rocks. We conclude that placing the wave source and receivers beneath the injection packer provides the most efficient means of hydrofracture monitoring. We then present the lossy transmission line model of wellbore and fracture for the detection and characterization of fracture state and volume. We show that this model captures the wellbore and fracture geometry, the physical properties of injected fluid and the wellbore-fracture system dynamics. The model is then compared with experimentally measured well responses. The simulated responses are in good agreement with published experimental data from several water injection wells with depths ranging from 1000 ft to 9000 ft. Hence, we conclude that the transmission line model of water injectors adequately captures wellbore and fracture dynamics. Using an extensive data set for the South Belridge Diatomite waterfloods, we demonstrate that even for very shallow wells the fracture size and state can be adequately recognized at wellhead. Finally, we simulate the effects of hydrofracture extension on the transient response to a pulse signal generated at wellhead. We show that hydrofracture extensions can indeed be detected by monitoring the wellhead pressure at sufficiently low frequencies.

  10. The corallivorous invertebrate Drupella aids in transmission of brown band disease on the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolet, K. J.; Hoogenboom, M. O.; Gardiner, N. M.; Pratchett, M. S.; Willis, B. L.

    2013-06-01

    Brown band disease (BrB) is an increasingly prevalent coral disease in the Indo-Pacific, but although the macroscopic signs of BrB have been associated with the ciliate Philaster guamensis, many aspects of its ecology remain unknown, particularly how the disease is transmitted among coral colonies. The aim of this study was to assess biotic factors affecting BrB transmission, explicitly testing whether corallivorous species contribute to disease spread. Several fish species were observed feeding on diseased tissue in the field, but did not influence either the progression or transmission rates of BrB on coral colonies in situ. In aquarium-based experiments, the butterflyfish Chaetodon aureofasciatus neither aided nor hindered the transmission of BrB from infected to uninfected corals. In contrast, the coral-feeding gastropod Drupella sp. was a highly effective vector of BrB, infecting more than 40 % of experimental colonies. This study also demonstrated the importance of injury in facilitating BrB infection, supporting the hypothesis that the BrB pathogen invades compromised coral tissue. In conclusion, disturbances and corallivorous activities that injure live corals are likely to contribute to increased occurrence of BrB provided that feeding scars create entry wounds sufficiently extensive to facilitate infection. These findings increase the understanding of the ecology of BrB, enabling better predictions of the prevalence and severity of this disease, and informing strategies for managing the impact of BrB on coral reefs.

  11. Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason

    2018-04-18

    Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues

  13. Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-02-26

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.

  14. Modeling HIV transmission and AIDS in the united states

    CERN Document Server

    Hethcote, Herbert W

    1992-01-01

    The disease that came to be called acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was first identified in the summer of 1981. By that time, nearly 100,000 persons in the United States may have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). By the time the routes of transmission were clearly identified and HIV was established as the cause of AIDS in 1983, over 300,000 people may have been infected. That number has continued to increase, with approximately 1,000,000 Americans believed to be infected in 1991. The epidemic is of great public health concern because HlV is infectious, causes severe morbidity and death in most if not all of those infected, and often occurs in relatively young persons. In addition, the cost of medical care for a person with HIV disease is high, and the medical care needs of HIV-infected persons place a severe burden on the medical care systems in many areas. Understanding and controlling the HIV epidemic is a particularly difficult challenge. The long and variable period between H...

  15. Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

    2018-02-01

    Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

  16. Genesis of mammalian prions: from non-infectious amyloid fibrils to a transmissible prion disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natallia Makarava

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The transmissible agent of prion disease consists of a prion protein in its abnormal, β-sheet rich state (PrP(Sc, which is capable of replicating itself according to the template-assisted mechanism. This mechanism postulates that the folding pattern of a newly recruited polypeptide chain accurately reproduces that of a PrP(Sc template. Here we report that authentic PrP(Sc and transmissible prion disease can be generated de novo in wild type animals by recombinant PrP (rPrP amyloid fibrils, which are structurally different from PrP(Sc and lack any detectable PrP(Sc particles. When induced by rPrP fibrils, a long silent stage that involved two serial passages preceded development of the clinical disease. Once emerged, the prion disease was characterized by unique clinical, neuropathological, and biochemical features. The long silent stage to the disease was accompanied by significant transformation in neuropathological properties and biochemical features of the proteinase K-resistant PrP material (PrPres before authentic PrP(Sc evolved. The current work illustrates that transmissible prion diseases can be induced by PrP structures different from that of authentic PrP(Sc and suggests that a new mechanism different from the classical templating exists. This new mechanism designated as "deformed templating" postulates that a change in the PrP folding pattern from the one present in rPrP fibrils to an alternative specific for PrP(Sc can occur. The current work provides important new insight into the mechanisms underlying genesis of the transmissible protein states and has numerous implications for understanding the etiology of neurodegenerative diseases.

  17. Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinh, Minh-Chau; Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon; Yu, In-Keun

    2012-01-01

    The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

  18. Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinh, Minh-Chau, E-mail: thanchau7787@gmail.com [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Yu, In-Keun, E-mail: yuik@changwon.ac.kr [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-08-15

    The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

  19. Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

    2018-04-24

    Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

  20. Animal Models of Cardiovascular Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Zaragoza

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases are the first leading cause of death and morbidity in developed countries. The use of animal models have contributed to increase our knowledge, providing new approaches focused to improve the diagnostic and the treatment of these pathologies. Several models have been developed to address cardiovascular complications, including atherothrombotic and cardiac diseases, and the same pathology have been successfully recreated in different species, including small and big animal models of disease. However, genetic and environmental factors play a significant role in cardiovascular pathophysiology, making difficult to match a particular disease, with a single experimental model. Therefore, no exclusive method perfectly recreates the human complication, and depending on the model, additional considerations of cost, infrastructure, and the requirement for specialized personnel, should also have in mind. Considering all these facts, and depending on the budgets available, models should be selected that best reproduce the disease being investigated. Here we will describe models of atherothrombotic diseases, including expanding and occlusive animal models, as well as models of heart failure. Given the wide range of models available, today it is possible to devise the best strategy, which may help us to find more efficient and reliable solutions against human cardiovascular diseases.

  1. Animal models of cardiovascular diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragoza, Carlos; Gomez-Guerrero, Carmen; Martin-Ventura, Jose Luis; Blanco-Colio, Luis; Lavin, Begoña; Mallavia, Beñat; Tarin, Carlos; Mas, Sebastian; Ortiz, Alberto; Egido, Jesus

    2011-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are the first leading cause of death and morbidity in developed countries. The use of animal models have contributed to increase our knowledge, providing new approaches focused to improve the diagnostic and the treatment of these pathologies. Several models have been developed to address cardiovascular complications, including atherothrombotic and cardiac diseases, and the same pathology have been successfully recreated in different species, including small and big animal models of disease. However, genetic and environmental factors play a significant role in cardiovascular pathophysiology, making difficult to match a particular disease, with a single experimental model. Therefore, no exclusive method perfectly recreates the human complication, and depending on the model, additional considerations of cost, infrastructure, and the requirement for specialized personnel, should also have in mind. Considering all these facts, and depending on the budgets available, models should be selected that best reproduce the disease being investigated. Here we will describe models of atherothrombotic diseases, including expanding and occlusive animal models, as well as models of heart failure. Given the wide range of models available, today it is possible to devise the best strategy, which may help us to find more efficient and reliable solutions against human cardiovascular diseases.

  2. The role of the ratio of vector and host densities in the evolution of transmission modes in vector-borne diseases. The example of sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M

    2012-11-07

    Pathogens may use different routes of transmission to maximize their spread among host populations. Theoretical and empirical work conducted on directly transmitted diseases suggest that horizontal (i.e., through host contacts) and vertical (i.e., from mother to offspring) transmission modes trade off, on the ground that highly virulent pathogens, which produce larger parasite loads, are more efficiently transmitted horizontally, and that less virulent pathogens, which impair host fitness less significantly, are better transmitted vertically. Other factors than virulence such as host density could also select for different transmission modes, but they have barely been studied. In vector-borne diseases, pathogen transmission rate is strongly affected by host-vector relative densities and by processes of saturation in contacts between hosts and vectors. The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi which is transmitted by triatomine bugs to several vertebrate hosts is responsible for Chagas' disease in Latin America. It is also widespread in sylvatic cycles in the southeastern U.S. in which it typically induces no mortality costs to its customary hosts. Besides classical transmission via vector bites, alternative ways to generate infections in hosts such as vertical and oral transmission (via the consumption of vectors by hosts) have been reported in these cycles. The two major T. cruzi strains occurring in the U.S. seem to exhibit differential efficiencies at vertical and classical horizontal transmissions. We investigated whether the vector-host ratio affects the outcome of the competition between the two parasite strains using an epidemiological two-strain model considering all possible transmission routes for sylvatic T. cruzi. We were able to show that the vector-host ratio influences the evolution of transmission modes providing that oral transmission is included in the model as a possible transmission mode, that oral and classical transmissions saturate at different vector

  3. Model documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System; Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-02-24

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is a component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. This report documents the archived version of NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 1994, DOE/EIA-0383(94). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. It is intended to fulfill the legal obligation of the EIA to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). This report represents Volume 1 of a two-volume set. (Volume 2 will report on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.) Subsequent chapters of this report provide: (1) an overview of the NGTDM (Chapter 2); (2) a description of the interface between the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the NGTDM (Chapter 3); (3) an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM (Chapter 4); (4) the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module (Chapter 5); (5) the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module (Chapter 6); (6) the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module (Chapter 7); (7) the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module (Chapter 8); and (8) a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs (Chapter 9).

  4. Chronic wasting disease prions are not transmissible to transgenic mice overexpressing human prion protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, Malin K; Al-Doujaily, Huda; Sigurdson, Christina J; Glatzel, Markus; O'Malley, Catherine; Powell, Caroline; Asante, Emmanuel A; Linehan, Jacqueline M; Brandner, Sebastian; Wadsworth, Jonathan D F; Collinge, John

    2010-10-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease that affects free-ranging and captive cervids, including mule deer, white-tailed deer, Rocky Mountain elk and moose. CWD-infected cervids have been reported in 14 USA states, two Canadian provinces and in South Korea. The possibility of a zoonotic transmission of CWD prions via diet is of particular concern in North America where hunting of cervids is a popular sport. To investigate the potential public health risks posed by CWD prions, we have investigated whether intracerebral inoculation of brain and spinal cord from CWD-infected mule deer transmits prion infection to transgenic mice overexpressing human prion protein with methionine or valine at polymorphic residue 129. These transgenic mice have been utilized in extensive transmission studies of human and animal prion disease and are susceptible to BSE and vCJD prions, allowing comparison with CWD. Here, we show that these mice proved entirely resistant to infection with mule deer CWD prions arguing that the transmission barrier associated with this prion strain/host combination is greater than that observed with classical BSE prions. However, it is possible that CWD may be caused by multiple prion strains. Further studies will be required to evaluate the transmission properties of distinct cervid prion strains as they are characterized.

  5. Turbulent dispersivity under conditions relevant to airborne disease transmission between laboratory animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halloran, Siobhan; Ristenpart, William

    2013-11-01

    Virologists and other researchers who test pathogens for airborne disease transmissibility often place a test animal downstream from an inoculated animal and later determine whether the test animal became infected. Despite the crucial role of the airflow in pathogen transmission between the animals, to date the infectious disease community has paid little attention to the effect of airspeed or turbulent intensity on the probability of transmission. Here we present measurements of the turbulent dispersivity under conditions relevant to experimental tests of airborne disease transmissibility between laboratory animals. We used time lapse photography to visualize the downstream transport and turbulent dispersion of smoke particulates released from a point source downstream of an axial fan, thus mimicking the release and transport of expiratory aerosols exhaled by an inoculated animal. We show that for fan-generated turbulence the plume width is invariant with the mean airspeed and, close to the point source, increases linearly with downstream position. Importantly, the turbulent dispersivity is insensitive to the presence of meshes placed downstream from the point source, indicating that the fan length scale dictates the turbulent intensity and corresponding dispersivity.

  6. The role of remote sensing and GIS for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palaniyandi, M

    2012-12-01

    There have been several attempts made to the appreciation of remote sensing and GIS for the study of vectors, biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases with respect to space and time. This study was made for reviewing and appraising the potential use of remote sensing and GIS applications for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission. The nature of the presence and the abundance of vectors and vector-borne diseases, disease infection and the disease transmission are not ubiquitous and are confined with geographical, environmental and climatic factors, and are localized. The presence of vectors and vector-borne diseases is most complex in nature, however, it is confined and fueled by the geographical, climatic and environmental factors including man-made factors. The usefulness of the present day availability of the information derived from the satellite data including vegetation indices of canopy cover and its density, soil types, soil moisture, soil texture, soil depth, etc. is integrating the information in the expert GIS engine for the spatial analysis of other geoclimatic and geoenvironmental variables. The present study gives the detailed information on the classical studies of the past and present, and the future role of remote sensing and GIS for the vector-borne diseases control. The ecological modeling directly gives us the relevant information to understand the spatial variation of the vector biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases in association with geoclimatic and the environmental variables. The probability map of the geographical distribution and seasonal variations of horizontal and vertical distribution of vector abundance and its association with vector -borne diseases can be obtained with low cost remote sensing and GIS tool with reliable data and speed.

  7. Transmission of infectious diseases from internationally adopted children to their adoptive families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciauvaud, J; Rigal, E; Pascal, J; Nourrisson, C; Poirier, P; Poirier, V; Vidal, M; Mrozek, N; Laurichesse, H; Beytout, J; Labbe, A; Lesens, O

    2014-08-01

    Internationally adopted children may suffer from different pathologies, including infectious diseases contracted in the country of origin. We evaluated the frequency of infectious diseases that may disseminate from adoptees to adoptive families on their arrival in France. All children who attended the clinic for international adoption in Clermont-Ferrand from January 2009 through to December 2011 were eligible for inclusion in the study. Standardized medical records dedicated to international adoption were retrospectively reviewed for demographic data, clinical diagnosis, and biological and radiological results. Data were completed by phone interviews with adoptive families after informed consent. One hundred and forty-two medical records were retrospectively reviewed and 86% of families agreed to be interviewed. One hundred and seventy-one potentially transmissible infections were diagnosed in 142 children, 12% (n = 20) of which were transmitted to adoptive families. Most of these infections were benign and transmission was restricted to the close family. Tinea was diagnosed in 44 adoptees and transmitted in 15 cases. Panton Valentine leukocidin producing methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) was transmitted to an adoptive father who required hospitalization for bursitis. Transmission also occurred for CMV (n = 1), hepatitis A (n = 1), giardiasis (n = 1), scabies (n = 1), Moluscum (n = 2) and pediculosis (n = 2). Two cases of chronic hepatitis B and latent tuberculosis were diagnosed without subsequent transmission. In conclusion, infectious diseases are common in internationally adopted children and should be detected shortly after arrival to avoid transmission. © 2013 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2013 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  8. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and organ donation: is there risk of disease transmission?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Brandon B; Diamond, Marc I

    2012-12-01

    A new protocol suggests that patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are a viable source of tissue for organ transplantation. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that many neurodegenerative diseases, including ALS, might progress due to transcellular propagation of protein aggregation among neurons. Transmission of the disease state from donor to host thus may be possible under the permissive circumstances of graft transplantation. We argue for careful patient selection and close longitudinal follow-up of recipients when harvesting organs from individuals with neurodegenerative disease, especially dominantly inherited forms. Copyright © 2012 American Neurological Association.

  9. Optimal treatment interruptions control of TB transmission model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nainggolan, Jonner; Suparwati, Titik; Kawuwung, Westy B.

    2018-03-01

    A tuberculosis model which incorporates treatment interruptions of infectives is established. Optimal control of individuals infected with active TB is given in the model. It is obtained that the control reproduction numbers is smaller than the reproduction number, this means treatment controls could optimize the decrease in the spread of active TB. For this model, controls on treatment of infection individuals to reduce the actively infected individual populations, by application the Pontryagins Maximum Principle for optimal control. The result further emphasized the importance of controlling disease relapse in reducing the number of actively infected and treatment interruptions individuals with tuberculosis.

  10. Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward M. Hill

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for

  11. A Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Structured Vector Population and Seasonality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakary Traoré

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of nonautonomous ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of malaria transmission with age structure for the vector population. The biting rate of mosquitoes is considered as a positive periodic function which depends on climatic factors. The basic reproduction ratio of the model is obtained and we show that it is the threshold parameter between the extinction and the persistence of the disease. Thus, by applying the theorem of comparison and the theory of uniform persistence, we prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if it is greater than 1, then there exists at least one positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical results.

  12. Factors determining the potential for onward transmission of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease via surgical instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garske, Tini; Ward, Hester J.T; Clarke, Paul; Will, Robert G; Ghani, Azra C

    2006-01-01

    While the number of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (vCJD) cases continues to decline, concern has been raised that transmission could occur directly from one person to another through routes including the transfer of blood and shared use of surgical instruments. Here we firstly present data on the surgical procedures undertaken on vCJD patients prior to onset of clinical symptoms, which supports the hypothesis that cases via this route are possible. We then apply a mathematical framework to assess the potential for self-sustaining epidemics via surgical procedures. Data from hospital episode statistics on the rates of high- and medium-risk procedures in the UK were used to estimate model parameters, and sensitivity to other unknown parameters about surgically transmitted vCJD was assessed. Our results demonstrate that a key uncertainty determining the scale of an epidemic and whether it is self-sustaining is the number of times a single instrument is re-used, alongside the infectivity of contaminated instruments and the effectiveness of cleaning. A survey into the frequency of re-use of surgical instruments would help reduce these uncertainties. PMID:17015298

  13. Transmission and adaptation of chronic wasting disease to hamsters and transgenic mice: evidence for strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Gregory J; Raymond, Lynne D; Meade-White, Kimberly D; Hughson, Andrew G; Favara, Cynthia; Gardner, Donald; Williams, Elizabeth S; Miller, Michael W; Race, Richard E; Caughey, Byron

    2007-04-01

    In vitro screening using the cell-free prion protein conversion system indicated that certain rodents may be susceptible to chronic wasting disease (CWD). Therefore, CWD isolates from mule deer, white-tailed deer, and elk were inoculated intracerebrally into various rodent species to assess the rodents' susceptibility and to develop new rodent models of CWD. The species inoculated were Syrian golden, Djungarian, Chinese, Siberian, and Armenian hamsters, transgenic mice expressing the Syrian golden hamster prion protein, and RML Swiss and C57BL10 wild-type mice. The transgenic mice and the Syrian golden, Chinese, Siberian, and Armenian hamsters had limited susceptibility to certain of the CWD inocula, as evidenced by incomplete attack rates and long incubation periods. For serial passages of CWD isolates in Syrian golden hamsters, incubation periods rapidly stabilized, with isolates having either short (85 to 89 days) or long (408 to 544 days) mean incubation periods and distinct neuropathological patterns. In contrast, wild-type mouse strains and Djungarian hamsters were not susceptible to CWD. These results show that CWD can be transmitted and adapted to some species of rodents and suggest that the cervid-derived CWD inocula may have contained or diverged into at least two distinct transmissible spongiform encephalopathy strains.

  14. Transplacental transmission of Leishmania infantum as a means for continued disease incidence in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggiatto, Paola Mercedes; Gibson-Corley, Katherine Nicole; Metz, Kyle; Gallup, Jack Michael; Hostetter, Jesse Michael; Mullin, Kathleen; Petersen, Christine Anne

    2011-04-12

    Dogs are the predominant domestic reservoir for human L. infantum infection. Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) is an emerging problem in some U.S. dog breeds, with an annual quantitative PCR prevalence of greater than 20% within an at-risk Foxhound population. Although classically Leishmania is transmitted by infected sand flies and phlebotomine sand flies exist in the United States, means of ongoing L. infantum transmission in U.S. dogs is currently unknown. Possibilities include vertical (transplacental/transmammary) and horizontal/venereal transmission. Several reports have indicated that endemic ZVL may be transmitted vertically. Our aims for this present study were to establish whether vertical/transplacental transmission was occurring in this population of Leishmania-infected US dogs and determine the effect that this means of transmission has on immune recognition of Leishmania. A pregnant L. infantum-infected dam donated to Iowa State University gave birth in-house to 12 pups. Eight pups humanely euthanized at the time of birth and four pups and the dam humanely euthanized three months post-partum were studied via L. infantum-kinetoplast specific quantitative PCR (kqPCR), gross and histopathological assessment and CD4+ T cell proliferation assay. This novel report describes disseminated L. infantum parasites as identified by kqPCR in 8 day old pups born to a naturally-infected, seropositive U.S. dog with no travel history. This is the first report of vertical transmission of L. infantum in naturally-infected dogs in North America, emphasizing that this novel means of transmission could possibly sustain infection within populations. Evidence that vertical transmission of ZVL may be a driving force for ongoing disease in an otherwise non-endemic region has significant implications on current control strategies for ZVL, as at present parasite elimination efforts in endemic areas are largely focused on vector-borne transmission between canines and people

  15. Transplacental transmission of Leishmania infantum as a means for continued disease incidence in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Mercedes Boggiatto

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Dogs are the predominant domestic reservoir for human L. infantum infection. Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL is an emerging problem in some U.S. dog breeds, with an annual quantitative PCR prevalence of greater than 20% within an at-risk Foxhound population. Although classically Leishmania is transmitted by infected sand flies and phlebotomine sand flies exist in the United States, means of ongoing L. infantum transmission in U.S. dogs is currently unknown. Possibilities include vertical (transplacental/transmammary and horizontal/venereal transmission. Several reports have indicated that endemic ZVL may be transmitted vertically.Our aims for this present study were to establish whether vertical/transplacental transmission was occurring in this population of Leishmania-infected US dogs and determine the effect that this means of transmission has on immune recognition of Leishmania.A pregnant L. infantum-infected dam donated to Iowa State University gave birth in-house to 12 pups. Eight pups humanely euthanized at the time of birth and four pups and the dam humanely euthanized three months post-partum were studied via L. infantum-kinetoplast specific quantitative PCR (kqPCR, gross and histopathological assessment and CD4+ T cell proliferation assay.This novel report describes disseminated L. infantum parasites as identified by kqPCR in 8 day old pups born to a naturally-infected, seropositive U.S. dog with no travel history. This is the first report of vertical transmission of L. infantum in naturally-infected dogs in North America, emphasizing that this novel means of transmission could possibly sustain infection within populations.Evidence that vertical transmission of ZVL may be a driving force for ongoing disease in an otherwise non-endemic region has significant implications on current control strategies for ZVL, as at present parasite elimination efforts in endemic areas are largely focused on vector-borne transmission between canines

  16. Abordagem nas doenças sexualmente transmissíveis Approach in sexually transmitted diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Belda Junior

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available As doenças sexualmente transmissíveis estão entre os problemas de saúde pública mais comuns em todo o mundo. Entre suas consequências estão a infertilidade feminina e masculina, a transmissão de mãe para filho, determinando perdas gestacionais ou doença congênita, e o aumento do risco para a infecção pelo HIV. Dessa forma, este guideline tem o objetivo de contribuir para melhorar a qualidade de atenção às pessoas com infecções sexualmente transmissíveis mais frequentes no Brasil, trazendo de forma didática e concreta o estado atual dos conhecimentos para os dermatologistas e médicos em geral que atuam no atendimento dessas pessoas e as principais recomendações para o diagnóstico e tratamento das doenças sexualmente transmissíveis mais recorrentes.Nowadays, sexually transmitted diseases are one of the most common public health issues. Among its consequences are the possibility of transmission from mother to baby - which may cause miscarriages and congenital disease, male and female infertility, and the increase of HIV infection risk. Therefore, the main goal of these guidelines is to contribute to the improvement of the treatment for sexually transmitted diseases patients by presenting to the medical community how today's science stands on the matter and also what the recommendation for diagnosing and treating a patient are.

  17. On the 2-Row Rule for Infectious Disease Transmission on Aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertzberg, Vicki Stover; Weiss, Howard

    With over two billion airline passengers annually, in-flight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Many instances of in-flight transmission have been documented, but the relative influence of the many factors (see below) affecting in-flight transmission has not been quantified. Long-standing guidance by public health agencies is that the primary transmission risk associated with air travel for most respiratory infectious diseases is associated with sitting within two rows of an infectious passenger. The effect of proximity may be one of these factors. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of infection within and beyond the 2-row rule given by public health guidance. We searched the literature for reports of in-flight transmission of infection which included seat maps indicating where the infectious and infected passengers were seated. There is a ∼ 6% risk to passengers seated within the 2-rows of infected individual(s) and there is ∼ 2% risk to passengers seated beyond 2-rows from the infectious individual. Contact tracing limited to passengers within 2-rows of the infectious individual(s) could fail to detect other cases of infections. This has important consequences for assessing the spread of infectious diseases. Infection at a distance from the index case indicates other factors, such as airflow, movement of passenger/crew members, fomites and contacts between passengers in the departure gate before boarding, or after deplaning, are involved. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  19. Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yanyu; Beier, John C.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Cosner, Chris; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ruan, Shigui

    2015-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held).

  20. Analysis of a Model for Computer Virus Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Qin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computer viruses remain a significant threat to computer networks. In this paper, the incorporation of new computers to the network and the removing of old computers from the network are considered. Meanwhile, the computers are equipped with antivirus software on the computer network. The computer virus model is established. Through the analysis of the model, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated. The stability conditions of the equilibria are derived. To illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are also included. The results provide a theoretical basis to control the spread of computer virus.

  1. Corticomuscular transmission of tremor signals by propriospinal neurons in Parkinson's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manzhao Hao

    Full Text Available Cortical oscillatory signals of single and double tremor frequencies act together to cause tremor in the peripheral limbs of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD. But the corticospinal pathway that transmits the tremor signals has not been clarified, and how alternating bursts of antagonistic muscle activations are generated from the cortical oscillatory signals is not well understood. This paper investigates the plausible role of propriospinal neurons (PN in C3-C4 in transmitting the cortical oscillatory signals to peripheral muscles. Kinematics data and surface electromyogram (EMG of tremor in forearm were collected from PD patients. A PN network model was constructed based on known neurophysiological connections of PN. The cortical efferent signal of double tremor frequencies were integrated at the PN network, whose outputs drove the muscles of a virtual arm (VA model to simulate tremor behaviors. The cortical efferent signal of single tremor frequency actuated muscle spindles. By comparing tremor data of PD patients and the results of model simulation, we examined two hypotheses regarding the corticospinal transmission of oscillatory signals in Parkinsonian tremor. Hypothesis I stated that the oscillatory cortical signals were transmitted via the mono-synaptic corticospinal pathways bypassing the PN network. The alternative hypothesis II stated that they were transmitted by way of PN multi-synaptic corticospinal pathway. Simulations indicated that without the PN network, the alternating burst patterns of antagonistic muscle EMGs could not be reliably generated, rejecting the first hypothesis. However, with the PN network, the alternating burst patterns of antagonist EMGs were naturally reproduced under all conditions of cortical oscillations. The results suggest that cortical commands of single and double tremor frequencies are further processed at PN to compute the alternating burst patterns in flexor and extensor muscles, and the

  2. Corticomuscular transmission of tremor signals by propriospinal neurons in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Manzhao; He, Xin; Xiao, Qin; Alstermark, Bror; Lan, Ning

    2013-01-01

    Cortical oscillatory signals of single and double tremor frequencies act together to cause tremor in the peripheral limbs of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). But the corticospinal pathway that transmits the tremor signals has not been clarified, and how alternating bursts of antagonistic muscle activations are generated from the cortical oscillatory signals is not well understood. This paper investigates the plausible role of propriospinal neurons (PN) in C3-C4 in transmitting the cortical oscillatory signals to peripheral muscles. Kinematics data and surface electromyogram (EMG) of tremor in forearm were collected from PD patients. A PN network model was constructed based on known neurophysiological connections of PN. The cortical efferent signal of double tremor frequencies were integrated at the PN network, whose outputs drove the muscles of a virtual arm (VA) model to simulate tremor behaviors. The cortical efferent signal of single tremor frequency actuated muscle spindles. By comparing tremor data of PD patients and the results of model simulation, we examined two hypotheses regarding the corticospinal transmission of oscillatory signals in Parkinsonian tremor. Hypothesis I stated that the oscillatory cortical signals were transmitted via the mono-synaptic corticospinal pathways bypassing the PN network. The alternative hypothesis II stated that they were transmitted by way of PN multi-synaptic corticospinal pathway. Simulations indicated that without the PN network, the alternating burst patterns of antagonistic muscle EMGs could not be reliably generated, rejecting the first hypothesis. However, with the PN network, the alternating burst patterns of antagonist EMGs were naturally reproduced under all conditions of cortical oscillations. The results suggest that cortical commands of single and double tremor frequencies are further processed at PN to compute the alternating burst patterns in flexor and extensor muscles, and the neuromuscular dynamics

  3. Transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by blood transfusion: risk factor or possible biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puopolo, Maria; Ladogana, Anna; Vetrugno, Vito; Pocchiari, Maurizio

    2011-07-01

    The occurrence of transfusion transmissions of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) cases has reawakened attention to the possible similar risk posed by other forms of CJD. CJD with a definite or probable diagnosis (sporadic CJD, n = 741; genetic CJD, n = 175) and no-CJD patients with definite alternative diagnosis (n = 482) with available blood transfusion history were included in the study. The risk of exposure to blood transfusion occurring more than 10 years before disease onset and for some possible confounding factors was evaluated by calculating crude odds ratios (ORs). Variables with significant ORs in univariate analyses were included in multivariate logistic regression analyses. In the univariate model, blood transfusion occurring more than 10 years before clinical onset is 4.1-fold more frequent in sporadic CJD than in other neurologic disorders. This significance is lost when the 10-year lag time was not considered. Multivariate analyses show that the risk of developing sporadic CJD after transfusion increases (OR, 5.05) after adjusting for possible confounding factors. Analysis conducted on patients with genetic CJD did not reveal any significant risk factor associated with transfusion. This is the first case-control study showing a significant risk of transfusion occurring more than 10 years before clinical onset in sporadic CJD patients. It remains questionable whether the significance of these data is biologically plausible or the consequence of biases in the design of the study, but they counterbalance previous epidemiologic negative reports that might have overestimated the assessment of blood safety in sporadic CJD. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

  4. CystiSim - An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

    2016-12-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities-pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

  5. CystiSim – An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

    2016-01-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities—pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

  6. Analyzing the Dynamics of a Rumor Transmission Model with Incubation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang'an Huo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers a rumor transmission model with incubation that incorporates constant recruitment and has infectious force in the latent period and infected period. By carrying out a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium, we use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations which is based on the use of higher-order generalization of Bendixson’s criterion. It shows that either the number of rumor infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or the rumor persists. We prove that the transcritical bifurcation occurs at R0 crosses the bifurcation threshold R0=1 by projecting the flow onto the extended center manifold. Since the rumor endemic level at the equilibrium is a continuous function of R0, as a consequence for successful eradication of the rumor, one should simply reduce R0 continuously below the threshold value 1. Finally, the obtained results are numerically validated and then discussed from both the mathematical and the sociological perspectives.

  7. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  8. Modelling the geographic distribution of wind power and the impact on transmission needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2003-01-01

    Through energy systems modelling, transmission systems modelling and geographical modelling, the article examines the sensitivity of the response of the transmission system to the geographic distributions of wind power and in particular the sensitivity of the results to the accuracy...... of the distributed modelled. The results show that accuracy of the geographic modelling while important for the analysis of specific single transmission lines is not important for the analysis of the general response of the transmission system. The analyses thus corroborate previous analyses that demonstrated...

  9. Prioritization of Companion Animal Transmissible Diseases for Policy Intervention in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cito, F; Rijks, J; Rantsios, A T; Cunningham, A A; Baneth, G; Guardabassi, L; Kuiken, T; Giovannini, A

    2016-07-01

    A number of papers have been published on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in farm animals and wildlife, based either on semiquantitative or truly quantitative methods, but there is no published literature on the prioritization of transmissible diseases in companion animals. In this study, available epidemiological data for diseases transmissible from companion animals to man were analysed with the aim of developing a procedure suitable for their prioritization within a European framework. A new method and its associated questionnaire and scoring system were designed based on methods described by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Modifications were applied to allow for the paucity of specific information on companion animal transmissible diseases. The OIE method was also adapted to the subject and to the regional scope of the interprofessional network addressing zoonotic diseases transmitted via companion animals in Europe: the Companion Animals multisectoriaL interprofessionaL Interdisciplinary Strategic Think tank On zoonoses (CALLISTO). Adaptations were made based on information collected from expert groups on viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases using a structured questionnaire, in which all questions were closed-ended. The expert groups were asked to select the most appropriate answer for each question taking into account the relevance and reliability of the data available in the scientific literature. Subsequently, the scoring of the answers obtained for each disease covered by the questionnaire was analysed to obtain two final overall scores, one for human health impact and one for agricultural economic impact. The adapted method was then applied to select the 15 most important pathogens (five for each pathogen group: viral, bacterial and parasitic) on the basis of their overall impact on public health and agriculture. The result of the prioritization exercise was a joint priority list (available at www.callistoproject.eu) of

  10. Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen C Johnson

    Full Text Available Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58 are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45 is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.

  11. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease lookback study: 21 years of surveillance for transfusion transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowder, Lauren A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Dodd, Roger Y; Steele, Whitney R

    2017-08-01

    Transfusion transmission of human prion diseases has been observed for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), but not for the classic forms of prion disease (CJD: sporadic, genetic, and iatrogenic). Although the presence of prions or misfolded prion proteins in blood has been documented in some patients with the most common form of CJD, sporadic CJD, no transfusion-transmitted cases of CJD have been recognized. Since 1995, the American Red Cross has conducted a lookback study of the recipients of blood products from donors who develop CJD to assess the risk of blood-borne CJD transmission in the United States. Blood donors subsequently diagnosed with confirmed or probable CJD were enrolled and the consignees were asked to identify the recipients of their blood products. These donors' transfusion recipients are traced annually with the National Death Index to see if they subsequently die of CJD. To date, 65 CJD donors have been enrolled along with 826 of their blood recipients. These recipients have contributed 3934 person-years of follow-up and no transfusion-transmitted cases of CJD have been recognized. From this study, as well as other epidemiologic studies, there is no evidence of CJD transfusion transmission; this risk remains theoretical. © 2017 AABB.

  12. The dangers of disease transmission by artificial insemination and embryo transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philpott, M

    1993-01-01

    This review summarizes the major infectious diseases of the three major agricultural species (cattle, sheep and pigs) and horses, and presents the evidence for and against the possibility of infectious agents being transmitted between animals via the venereal route or by the use of semen or early embryos in commercial artificial insemination (AI) or embryo transfer (ET). Cattle feature most prominently in the widespread distribution of frozen semen, and national and international organizations have set out guidelines to work towards disease-free bull studs with semen free from potential pathogens. With the control of major epizootic diseases, attention has been focused on such diseases as IBR, BVD and blue tongue, where clinical signs are rarely evident but the detection of virus in semen is of great importance. New information on the relevance of bacterial disease such as Mycobacterium paratuberculosis, campylobacteriosis and leptospirosis is reviewed, along with details of the mycoplasma and ureaplasma species of the bull's genital tract. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has attracted much research and semen is not regarded as a source of infection. New work on the pathogenesis of a number of diseases and the use of new biotechnology in diagnosis is included. The International Embryo Transfer Society (IETS) has encouraged a great deal of experimental work--much originating in Canada--on the risk of transmission of disease from donors to recipients via a 7-day-old blastocyst. There has been much success in demonstrating that with an approved protocol of handling the embryos, to date there is very little danger in disease transmission with both viruses and bacteria. The mycoplasma group appear more intractable and the role of BSE is still being evaluated. In sheep, scrapie, Brucella ovis infection and blue tongue feature in current work. In the pig there is a surge in international movement of pig semen, and Aujeszky's disease and the new so-called Blue Ear

  13. The landscape configuration of zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus disease in West and Central Africa: interaction between population density and vegetation cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael G. Walsh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Ebola virus disease (EVD is an emerging infectious disease of zoonotic origin that has been responsible for high mortality and significant social disruption in West and Central Africa. Zoonotic transmission of EVD requires contact between susceptible human hosts and the reservoir species for Ebolaviruses, which are believed to be fruit bats. Nevertheless, features of the landscape that may facilitate such points of contact have not yet been adequately identified. Nor have spatial dependencies between zoonotic EVD transmission and landscape structures been delineated. This investigation sought to describe the spatial relationship between zoonotic EVD transmission events, or spillovers, and population density and vegetation cover. An inhomogeneous Poisson process model was fitted to all precisely geolocated zoonotic transmissions of EVD in West and Central Africa. Population density was strongly associated with spillover; however, there was significant interaction between population density and green vegetation cover. In areas of very low population density, increasing vegetation cover was associated with a decrease in risk of zoonotic transmission, but as population density increased in a given area, increasing vegetation cover was associated with increased risk of zoonotic transmission. This study showed that the spatial dependencies of Ebolavirus spillover were associated with the distribution of population density and vegetation cover in the landscape, even after controlling for climate and altitude. While this is an observational study, and thus precludes direct causal inference, the findings do highlight areas that may be at risk for zoonotic EVD transmission based on the spatial configuration of important features of the landscape.

  14. Risk of equine infectious disease transmission by non-race horse movements in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Nishiguchi, Akiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

    2010-07-01

    For determining surveillance programs or infectious disease countermeasures, risk evaluation approaches have been recently undertaken in the field of animal health. In the present study, to help establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases, we evaluated the potential risk of equine infectious disease transmission in non-race horses from the viewpoints of horse movements and health management practices by conducting a survey of non-race horse holdings. From the survey, the non-race horse population was classified into the following five sectors based on their purposes: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, fattening sector and others. Our survey results showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had the largest population sizes, and movements between and within these sectors occurred quite frequently, while there was little movement in the other sectors. Qualitative evaluation showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had relatively high risks of equine infectious disease transmission through horse movements. Therefore, it would be effective to concentrate on these two sectors when implementing surveillance or preventative measures. Special priority should be given to the private owner sector because this sector has not implemented inspection and vaccination well compared with the equestrian sector, which possesses a high compliance rate for these practices. This qualitative risk evaluation focused on horse movements and health management practices could provide a basis for further risk evaluation to establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases.

  15. Disease modeling in genetic kidney diseases: zebrafish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Heiko; Müller-Deile, Janina; Kinast, Mark; Schiffer, Mario

    2017-07-01

    Growing numbers of translational genomics studies are based on the highly efficient and versatile zebrafish (Danio rerio) vertebrate model. The increasing types of zebrafish models have improved our understanding of inherited kidney diseases, since they not only display pathophysiological changes but also give us the opportunity to develop and test novel treatment options in a high-throughput manner. New paradigms in inherited kidney diseases have been developed on the basis of the distinct genome conservation of approximately 70 % between zebrafish and humans in terms of existing gene orthologs. Several options are available to determine the functional role of a specific gene or gene sets. Permanent genome editing can be induced via complete gene knockout by using the CRISPR/Cas-system, among others, or via transient modification by using various morpholino techniques. Cross-species rescues succeeding knockdown techniques are employed to determine the functional significance of a target gene or a specific mutation. This article summarizes the current techniques and discusses their perspectives.

  16. The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdazo-González, Begoña; Kim, Jan T; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

    2015-06-01

    Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  18. Interferon lambda (IFN-λ) efficiently blocks norovirus transmission in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha-Pereira, Joana; Jacobs, Sophie; Noppen, Sam; Verbeken, Eric; Michiels, Thomas; Neyts, Johan

    2018-01-01

    Human noroviruses are highly efficient in person to person transmission thus associated with explosive outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis. Outbreak control is limited to disinfection and isolation measures. Strategies to control the spread of noroviruses should be developed and models to study norovirus transmission will greatly facilitate this. Here, a mouse-to-mouse transmission model, in which mice develop acute murine norovirus (MNV)-induced diarrhea, was used to explore the role of interferon lambda (IFN-λ) in the control of a norovirus infection. Sentinel AG129 mice [deficient in IFN-α/β and IFN-γ receptors] that were co-housed with MNV-infected mice shedding high amounts of virus in their stool, developed a MNV-infection with associated diarrhea. Inoculation of such sentinel mice with an IFN-λ expression plasmid resulted in the production of circulating IFN-λ and upregulation of the expression of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs) of the gut. Injection of the IFN-λ-expressing plasmid to sentinels prevents MNV-induced disease upon exposure to MNV-infected mice, as well as MNV replication in the small intestine, the associated signs of inflammation and the mounting of a specific IgG-based immune response. This demonstrates that IFN-λ can alone mediate protection against transmission of norovirus. The development of a simple delivery method for IFN-λ could be explored as a strategy to control norovirus outbreaks and protect vulnerable populations such as the elderly and immunocompromised. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Modeling the role of public transportation in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Jason R; Morrow, Carl; Wood, Robin

    2013-03-15

    Current tuberculosis notification rates in South Africa are among the highest ever recorded. Although the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic has been a critical factor, the density of respiratory contacts in high-risk environments may be an important and underappreciated driver. Using a modified Wells-Riley model for airborne disease transmission, we estimated the risk of tuberculosis transmission on 3 modes of public transit (minibus taxis, buses, and trains) in Cape Town, South Africa, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a natural tracer gas to evaluate air exchange. Carbon dioxide measurements were performed between October and December of 2011. Environmental risk, reflected in the rebreathed fraction of air, was highest in minibus taxis and lowest in trains; however, the average number of passengers sharing an indoor space was highest in trains and lowest in minibus taxis. Among daily commuters, the annual risk of tuberculosis infection was projected to be 3.5%-5.0% and was highest among minibus taxi commuters. Assuming a duration of infectiousness of 1 year, the basic reproductive number attributable to transportation was more than 1 in all 3 modes of transportation. Given its poor ventilation and high respiratory contact rates, public transportation may play a critical role in sustaining tuberculosis transmission in South African cities.

  20. An individual-based model of transmission of resistant bacteria in a veterinary teaching hospital.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj Suthar

    Full Text Available Veterinary nosocomial infections caused by antibiotic resistant bacteria cause increased morbidity, higher cost and length of treatment and increased zoonotic risk because of the difficulty in treating them. In this study, an individual-based model was developed to investigate the effects of movements of canine patients among ten areas (transmission points within a veterinary teaching hospital, and the effects of these movements on transmission of antibiotic susceptible and resistant pathogens. The model simulates contamination of transmission points, healthcare workers, and patients as well as the effects of decontamination of transmission points, disinfection of healthcare workers, and antibiotic treatments of canine patients. The model was parameterized using data obtained from hospital records, information obtained by interviews with hospital staff, and the published literature. The model suggested that transmission resulting from contact with healthcare workers was common, and that certain transmission points (housing wards, diagnostics room, and the intensive care unit presented higher risk for transmission than others (lobby and surgery. Sensitivity analyses using a range of parameter values demonstrated that the risk of acquisition of colonization by resistant pathogens decreased with shorter patient hospital stays (P<0.0001, more frequent decontamination of transmission points and disinfection of healthcare workers (P<0.0001 and better compliance of healthcare workers with hygiene practices (P<0.0001. More frequent decontamination of heavily trafficked transmission points was especially effective at reducing transmission of the model pathogen.

  1. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. Subsequent chapters of this report provide: an overview of NGTDM; a description of the interface between the NEMS and NGTDM; an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM; the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module; the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module; the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module; the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module; and a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs.

  2. ELABORATION OF THE COMPUTATIONAL MODEL OF THE PLANETARY PRECESSIONAL TRANSMISSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOSTAN Ion

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The specific character of sphere-spatial motion used in the precessional transmissions makes impossible the utilization of involute profiles of classical teeth. This fact requires the elaboration of new non-standard profiles, which in conditions of using the sphere-spatial motion with an immovable point of the satellite would assure constancy transfer function, the multiplicity of the precessional gear and consequently high carrying capacity of the precessional transmission in general.

  3. Burden of Disease Attributed to Waterborne Transmission of Selected Enteric Pathogens, Australia, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibney, Katherine B; O'Toole, Joanne; Sinclair, Martha; Leder, Karin

    2017-06-01

    AbstractUniversal access to safe drinking water is a global priority. To estimate the annual disease burden of campylobacteriosis, nontyphoidal salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and norovirus attributable to waterborne transmission in Australia, we multiplied regional World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of the proportion of cases attributable to waterborne transmission by estimates of all-source disease burden for each study pathogen. Norovirus was attributed as causing the most waterborne disease cases (479,632; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0-1,111,874) followed by giardiasis and campylobacteriosis. The estimated waterborne disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden for campylobacteriosis (2,004; 95% UI: 0-5,831) was 7-fold greater than other study pathogens and exceeded the WHO guidelines for drinking water quality (1 × 10 -6 DALY per person per year) by 90-fold. However, these estimates include disease transmitted via either drinking or recreational water exposure. More precise country-specific and drinking water-specific attribution estimates would better define the health burden from drinking water and inform changes to treatment requirements.

  4. Possible iatrogenic transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via tonometer tips: a review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walia, J S; Chronister, C L

    2001-10-01

    Tonometer tips are used by optometrists to measure intraocular pressures. The recommended procedure of soaking in bleach solution kills bacteria and certain viruses, such as human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus-1 and herpes simplex virus-2, adenovirus 8, and hepatitis B, from the tip. Conversely, recommendations made in literature to sterilize equipment that may have come in contact with virus-contaminated tissue from patients with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease have a somewhat tougher requirement. Autoclaving for 1 hour at a temperature of at least 120 degrees C (15 psi), or a 1-hour exposure to 0.5% sodium hypochlorite (a 10-fold dilution of household bleach) should provide excellent disinfection. One-hour exposure to 1 N Sodium hydroxide has also been mentioned in the literature. Studies have shown that corneas of guinea pigs with Cruetzfeldt-Jakob disease (C-J disease) are infectious. Infected corneas have been shown to cause transmission via corneal transplants, and via experimental placement of infected guinea pig's cornea into the anterior chamber of uninfected guinea pigs. Many researchers have strongly suggested that C-J disease can be iatrogenically transmitted via applanation tonometer tips. An epidemiologic case-controlled study found statistically significant odds ratio for intraocular pressure testing in the medical history of patients with C-J disease. Even though there have not been any proven studies confirming iatrogenic transmission through tonometer tips, optometrists should be cautious if a patient has C-J disease, or manifests symptoms of C-J disease and use alternatives to Goldmann applanation tonometry.

  5. Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Bansal, Shweta; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Vespignani, Alessandro; Viboud, Cécile

    2016-01-01

    We devote a special issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases to review the recent advances of big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments and mobility. We consider a broad definition of big data for public health, one encompassing patient information gathered from high-volume electronic health records and participatory surveillance systems, as well as mining of digital traces such as socia...

  6. Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Drees, Kevin P.; Luikart, Gordon; Quance, Christine; Anderson, Neil J.; Clarke, P. Ryan; Cole, Eric K.; Drew, Mark L.; Edwards, William H.; Rhyan, Jack C.; Treanor, John J.; Wallen, Rick L.; White, Patrick J.; Robbe-Austerman, Suelee; Cross, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

  7. First field trial of a transmissible recombinant vaccine against myxomatosis and rabbit hemorrhagic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, J M; Sánchez, C; Ramírez, M A; Morales, M; Bárcena, J; Ferrer, J; Espuña, E; Pagès-Manté, A; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2001-08-14

    As a novel approach for immunisation of wild rabbits, we have recently developed a transmissible vaccine against myxomatosis and rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD) based on a recombinant myxoma virus (MV) expressing the RHDV capsid protein [J. Virol. 74 (2000) 1114]. The efficacy and safety of the vaccine have been extensively evaluated under laboratory conditions. In this study, we report the first limited field trial of the candidate vaccine that was undertaken in an island of 34 Has containing a population of around 300 rabbits. Following administration by the subcutaneous route to 76 rabbits, the vaccine induced specific antibody responses against both myxomatosis and RHDV in all the inoculated rabbits. Furthermore, the recombinant virus exhibited a limited horizontal transmission capacity, promoting seroconversion of around 50% of the uninoculated rabbit population. No evidence of undesirable effects due to the recombinant virus field release was detected.

  8. Horizontal transmissible protection against myxomatosis and rabbit hemorrhagic disease by using a recombinant myxoma virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárcena, J; Morales, M; Vázquez, B; Boga, J A; Parra, F; Lucientes, J; Pagès-Manté, A; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M; Blasco, R; Torres, J M

    2000-02-01

    We have developed a new strategy for immunization of wild rabbit populations against myxomatosis and rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD) that uses recombinant viruses based on a naturally attenuated field strain of myxoma virus (MV). The recombinant viruses expressed the RHDV major capsid protein (VP60) including a linear epitope tag from the transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) nucleoprotein. Following inoculation, the recombinant viruses induced specific antibody responses against MV, RHDV, and the TGEV tag. Immunization of wild rabbits by the subcutaneous and oral routes conferred protection against virulent RHDV and MV challenges. The recombinant viruses showed a limited horizontal transmission capacity, either by direct contact or in a flea-mediated process, promoting immunization of contact uninoculated animals.

  9. Phenotype Variation in Human Immunodeficiency virus Type 1 Transmission and Disease Progression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariangela Cavarelli

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1 infects target cells through interaction with the CD4 molecule and chemokine receptors, mainly CCR5 and CXCR4. Viral isolates can be phenotypically classified based on the co-receptor they utilize to infect target cells. Thus, R5 and X4 virus use respectively CCR5 and CXCR4, whereas R5X4 virus can use either CCR5 or CXCR4. This review describes the central role played by co-receptor expression and usage for HIV-1 cell tropism, transmission and pathogenesis. We discuss various hypotheses proposed to explain the preferential transmission of R5 viruses and the mechanisms driving the change of HIV-1 co-receptor usage in the course of infection. Recent insights in the intrinsic variability of R5 viruses and their role in influencing disease progression in both adults and children are also discussed.

  10. Phenotype variation in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 transmission and disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavarelli, Mariangela; Scarlatti, Gabriella

    2009-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) infects target cells through interaction with the CD4 molecule and chemokine receptors, mainly CCR5 and CXCR4. Viral isolates can be phenotypically classified based on the co-receptor they utilize to infect target cells. Thus, R5 and X4 virus use respectively CCR5 and CXCR4, whereas R5X4 virus can use either CCR5 or CXCR4. This review describes the central role played by co-receptor expression and usage for HIV-1 cell tropism, transmission and pathogenesis. We discuss various hypotheses proposed to explain the preferential transmission of R5 viruses and the mechanisms driving the change of HIV-1 co-receptor usage in the course of infection. Recent insights in the intrinsic variability of R5 viruses and their role in influencing disease progression in both adults and children are also discussed.

  11. Influence of contact definitions in assessment of the relative importance of social settings in disease transmission risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsty J Bolton

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of social settings in respiratory pathogen spread using three measures of person contact hours (PCH as proxies for transmission risk with an aim to inform bipartite network models of respiratory pathogen transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our survey examines the contact behaviour for a convenience sample of 65 adults, with each encounter classified as occurring in a work, retail, home, social, travel or "other" setting. The diary design allows for extraction of PCH-interaction (cumulative time in face-face conversational or touch interaction with contacts--analogous to the contact measure used in several existing surveys--as well as PCH-setting (product of time spent in setting and number of people present and PCH-reach (product of time spent in setting and number of people in close proximity. Heterogeneities in day-dependent distribution of risk across settings are analysed using partitioning and cluster analyses and compared between days and contact measures. Although home is typically the highest-risk setting when PCH measures isolate two-way interactions, its relative importance compared to social and work settings may reduce when adopting a more inclusive contact measure that considers the number and duration of potential exposure events. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneities in location-dependent contact behaviour as measured by contact diary studies depend on the adopted contact definition. We find that contact measures isolating face-face conversational or touch interactions suggest that contact in the home dominates, whereas more inclusive contact measures indicate that home and work settings may be of higher importance. In the absence of definitive knowledge of the contact required to facilitate transmission of various

  12. Simulation model of an electrohydraulic-actuated double-clutch transmission vehicle: modelling and system design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeftner, J.; Ebner, W.

    2017-12-01

    Automated and manual transmissions are the main link between engine and powertrain. The technical term when the transmission provides the desired torque during all possible driving conditions is denoted as powertrain matching. Recent developments in the last years show that double-clutch-transmissions (DCTs) are a reasonable compromise in terms of production costs, shifting quality, drivability and fuel efficiency. They have several advantages compared to other automatic transmissions (AT). Most DCTs nowadays consist of a hydraulic actuation control unit, which controls the clutches of the gearbox in order to induce a desired drivetrain torque into the driveline. The main functions of hydraulic systems are manifold: they initiate gear shifts, they provide sufficient oil for lubrication and they control the shift quality by suitably providing a desired oil flow or pressure for the clutch actuation. In this paper, a mathematical model of a passenger car equipped with a DCT is presented. The objective of this contribution is to get an increased understanding for the dynamics of the hydraulic circuit and its coupling to the vehicle drivetrain. The simulation model consists of a hydraulic and a mechanical domain: the hydraulic actuation circuit is described by nonlinear differential equations and includes the dynamics of the line pressure and the proportional valve, as well as the influence of the pressure reducing valve, pipe resistances and accumulator dynamics. The drivetrain with its gear ratios, moments of inertia, torsional stiffness of the rotating shafts and a simple longitudinal vehicle model represent the mechanical domain. The link between hydraulic and mechanical domain is given by the clutch, which combines hydraulic equations and Newton's laws. The presented mathematical model may not only be used as a simulation model for developing the transmission control software, it may also serve as a virtual layout for the design process phase. At the end of this

  13. Chains of transmission and control of Ebola Virus Disease in Conakry, Guinea in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faye, Ousmane; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Heleze, Emmanuel; Faye, Oumar; Loucoubar, Cheikh; Magassouba, N’Faly; Soropogui, Barré; Keita, Sakoba; Gakou, Tata; Bah, El Hadji Ibrahima; Koivogui, Lamine; Sall, Amadou Alpha; Cauchemez, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Background An Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic of unprecedented magnitude is ongoing in West Africa, affecting for the first time large urban centers like Conakry, the capital of Guinea. Methods Interviews of EVD patients, relatives and neighbors and laboratory databases were used to reconstruct EVD chains of transmission in Conakry, from March to August 2014. Findings Out of 193 confirmed and probable EVD cases reported in Conakry, Boffa and Télimélé, 152 (79%) were positioned in the chains of transmission. In March, non-Health Care Workers cases infected on average 2.3 (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) persons, breaking down into 1.4 (95% CI: 0.9, 2.2) persons in the community, 0.4 (95% CI: 0.1, 0.9) in the hospital and 0.5 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.0) at funerals. Following implementation of infection control in April, the reproduction number in the hospital and at funerals reduced below 0.1. In the community, the reproduction number, which was positively correlated with patients viremia, dropped by 50% for hospitalized cases but remained unchanged for those not hospitalized. Hospital and funeral transmission represented 35% (7/20) and 15% (3/20) of all transmissions in March; but only 9% (11/128) and 4% (5/128) from April onward. Overall, 82% (119/145) of transmission occurred in the community and 72% (105/145) between family members. Simulations showed that a 10% increase in hospitalizations could have reduced the length of chains by 26% (95% CI: 4%, 45%). Interpretation Monitoring chains of transmission is critical to evaluate and optimize local control strategies for EVD. In Conakry, interventions had the potential to stop the epidemic but reintroductions of the disease and lack of cooperation of a small number of families led to prolonged low-level spread, highlighting challenges of EVD control in large urban centers. Funding Labex IBEID, Reacting, PREDEMICS, NIGMS MIDAS initiative, Institut Pasteur de Dakar. PMID:25619149

  14. Tisza, Transmission and Innovation: An Innovative Bottom-up Model for Transmission and Promotion of Tisza Cultural Heritage

    OpenAIRE

    Barberis Rami, Matías Ezequiel; Berić, Dejan; Mátai, Anikó; Opriş, Lavinia-Ioana; Ricci, Giulia; Rustja, Dritan

    2015-01-01

    The project aims to promote and preserve both tangible and intangible cultural heritage in a particular region of the Danube river basin, Tisza Region (TR). The TR cultural heritage is less-well-known in the rest of Europe and is at risk of being lost or forgotten if not preserved and supported. In this project is presented an innovative and strategic bottom-up model which allows local people to manage how their heritage is disseminated through transmission and promotion of their ...

  15. Transmission Properties of Human PrP 102L Prions Challenge the Relevance of Mouse Models of GSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asante, Emmanuel A; Grimshaw, Andrew; Smidak, Michelle; Jakubcova, Tatiana; Tomlinson, Andrew; Jeelani, Asif; Hamdan, Shyma; Powell, Caroline; Joiner, Susan; Linehan, Jacqueline M; Brandner, Sebastian; Wadsworth, Jonathan D F; Collinge, John

    2015-07-01

    Inherited prion disease (IPD) is caused by autosomal-dominant pathogenic mutations in the human prion protein (PrP) gene (PRNP). A proline to leucine substitution at PrP residue 102 (P102L) is classically associated with Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker (GSS) disease but shows marked clinical and neuropathological variability within kindreds that may be caused by variable propagation of distinct prion strains generated from either PrP 102L or wild type PrP. To-date the transmission properties of prions propagated in P102L patients remain ill-defined. Multiple mouse models of GSS have focused on mutating the corresponding residue of murine PrP (P101L), however murine PrP 101L, a novel PrP primary structure, may not have the repertoire of pathogenic prion conformations necessary to accurately model the human disease. Here we describe the transmission properties of prions generated in human PrP 102L expressing transgenic mice that were generated after primary challenge with ex vivo human GSS P102L or classical CJD prions. We show that distinct strains of prions were generated in these mice dependent upon source of the inoculum (either GSS P102L or CJD brain) and have designated these GSS-102L and CJD-102L prions, respectively. GSS-102L prions have transmission properties distinct from all prion strains seen in sporadic and acquired human prion disease. Significantly, GSS-102L prions appear incapable of transmitting disease to conventional mice expressing wild type mouse PrP, which contrasts strikingly with the reported transmission properties of prions generated in GSS P102L-challenged mice expressing mouse PrP 101L. We conclude that future transgenic modeling of IPDs should focus exclusively on expression of mutant human PrP, as other approaches may generate novel experimental prion strains that are unrelated to human disease.

  16. Altered vector competence in an experimental mosquito-mouse transmission model of Zika infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryuta Uraki

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Few animal models of Zika virus (ZIKV infection have incorporated arthropod-borne transmission. Here, we establish an Aedes aegypti mosquito model of ZIKV infection of mice, and demonstrate altered vector competency among three strains, (Orlando, ORL, Ho Chi Minh, HCM, and Patilas, PAT. All strains acquired ZIKV in their midguts after a blood meal from infected mice, but ZIKV transmission only occurred in mice fed upon by HCM, and to a lesser extent PAT, but not ORL, mosquitoes. This defect in transmission from ORL or PAT mosquitoes was overcome by intrathoracic injection of ZIKV into mosquito. Genetic analysis revealed significant diversity among these strains, suggesting a genetic basis for differences in ability for mosquito strains to transmit ZIKV. The intrathoracic injection mosquito-mouse transmission model is critical to understanding the influence of mosquitoes on ZIKV transmission, infectivity and pathogenesis in the vertebrate host, and represents a natural transmission route for testing vaccines and therapeutics.

  17. Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spreac

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henaux, Viviane; Jane Parmley,; Catherine Soos,; Samuel, Michael D.

    2013-01-01

    Estimating disease transmission in wildlife populations is critical to understand host–pathogen dynamics, predict disease risks and prioritize surveillance activities. However, obtaining reliable estimates for free-ranging populations is extremely challenging. In particular, disease surveillance programs may routinely miss the onset or end of epizootics and peak prevalence, limiting the ability to evaluate infectious processes.

  18. Chagas Disease in Ecuador: Evidence for Disease Transmission in an Indigenous Population in the Amazon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chico H Martha

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Two well-defined synthetic peptides TcD and PEP2 were used in a sero-epidemiological study for the detection of Trypanosoma cruzi infections in an indigenous group in the Amazon region of Ecuador. Of the 18 communities studied along the Río Napo, province of Napo, 15 (83.3% were found to be positive for T. cruzi infection. Of the 1,011 individuals examined 61 (6.03% resulted positive. A prevalence of infection of 4.8% was found in children aged 1-5 years. The prevalence of infection increased with age, with adults 50 years or older showing a maximum prevalence of 18.8%. Autochthonous transmission of T. cruzi is present among this isolated indigenous population

  19. Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lemieux-Mellouki

    2017-12-01

    Conclusions: Modelling genital-site only transmission may overestimate vaccination impact if extragenital infections contribute to systemic natural immunity or underestimate vaccination impact if a high proportion of genital infections originate from extragenital infections. Under current understanding of heterosexual HPV transmission and immunity, a substantial bias from using uni-site models in predicting vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV infection is unlikely to occur.

  20. A controlled human malaria infection model enabling evaluation of transmission-blocking interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Collins, K.A.; Wang, C.Y.; Adams, M.; Mitchell, H.; Rampton, M.; Elliott, S.; Reuling, I.J.; Bousema, T.; Sauerwein, R.; Chalon, S.; Mohrle, J.J.; McCarthy, J.S.

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Drugs and vaccines that can interrupt the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum will be important for malaria control and elimination. However, models for early clinical evaluation of candidate transmission-blocking interventions are currently unavailable. Here, we describe a new model

  1. Experimental Study of Dispersion and Deposition of Expiratory Aerosols in Aircraft Cabins and Impact on Infectious Disease Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    To, G.N.S.; Wan, M.P.; Chao, C.Y.H.

    2009-01-01

    The dispersion and deposition characteristics of polydispersed expiratory aerosols were investigated in an aircraft cabin mockup to study the transmission of infectious diseases. The airflow was characterized by particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements. Aerosol dispersionwas measured...

  2. Local Stability of AIDS Epidemic Model Through Treatment and Vertical Transmission with Time Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novi W, Cascarilla; Lestari, Dwi

    2016-02-01

    This study aims to explain stability of the spread of AIDS through treatment and vertical transmission model. Human with HIV need a time to positively suffer AIDS. The existence of a time, human with HIV until positively suffer AIDS can be delayed for a time so that the model acquired is the model with time delay. The model form is a nonlinear differential equation with time delay, SIPTA (susceptible-infected-pre AIDS-treatment-AIDS). Based on SIPTA model analysis results the disease free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. The disease free equilibrium point with and without time delay are local asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. The endemic equilibrium point will be local asymptotically stable if the time delay is less than the critical value of delay, unstable if the time delay is more than the critical value of delay, and bifurcation occurs if the time delay is equal to the critical value of delay.

  3. Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis Disease Activity and Transmission Using Information Technology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Sohail Ahmed

    Full Text Available While formal reporting, surveillance, and response structures remain essential to protecting public health, a new generation of freely accessible, online, and real-time informatics tools for disease tracking are expanding the ability to raise earlier public awareness of emerging disease threats. The rationale for this study is to test the hypothesis that the HealthMap informatics tools can complement epidemiological data captured by traditional surveillance monitoring systems for meningitis due to Neisseria meningitides (N. meningitides by highlighting severe transmissible disease activity and outbreaks in the United States.Annual analyses of N. meningitides disease alerts captured by HealthMap were compared to epidemiological data captured by the Centers for Disease Control's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs for N. meningitides. Morbidity and mortality case reports were measured annually from 2010 to 2013 (HealthMap and 2005 to 2012 (ABCs.HealthMap N. meningitides monitoring captured 80-90% of alerts as diagnosed N. meningitides, 5-20% of alerts as suspected cases, and 5-10% of alerts as related news articles. HealthMap disease alert activity for emerging disease threats related to N. meningitides were in agreement with patterns identified historically using traditional surveillance systems. HealthMap's strength lies in its ability to provide a cumulative "snapshot" of weak signals that allows for rapid dissemination of knowledge and earlier public awareness of potential outbreak status while formal testing and confirmation for specific serotypes is ongoing by public health authorities.The underreporting of disease cases in internet-based data streaming makes inadequate any comparison to epidemiological trends illustrated by the more comprehensive ABCs network published by the Centers for Disease Control. However, the expected delays in compiling confirmatory reports by traditional surveillance systems (at the time of writing, ABCs data

  4. Three pathogens in sympatric populations of pumas, bobcats, and domestic cats: implications for infectious disease transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah N Bevins

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic landscape change can lead to increased opportunities for pathogen transmission between domestic and non-domestic animals. Pumas, bobcats, and domestic cats are sympatric in many areas of North America and share many of the same pathogens, some of which are zoonotic. We analyzed bobcat, puma, and feral domestic cat samples collected from targeted geographic areas. We examined exposure to three pathogens that are taxonomically diverse (bacterial, protozoal, viral, that incorporate multiple transmission strategies (vector-borne, environmental exposure/ingestion, and direct contact, and that vary in species-specificity. Bartonella spp., Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV, and Toxoplasma gondii IgG were detected in all three species with mean respective prevalence as follows: puma 16%, 41% and 75%; bobcat 31%, 22% and 43%; domestic cat 45%, 10% and 1%. Bartonella spp. were highly prevalent among domestic cats in Southern California compared to other cohort groups. Feline Immunodeficiency Virus exposure was primarily associated with species and age, and was not influenced by geographic location. Pumas were more likely to be infected with FIV than bobcats, with domestic cats having the lowest infection rate. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was high in both pumas and bobcats across all sites; in contrast, few domestic cats were seropositive, despite the fact that feral, free ranging domestic cats were targeted in this study. Interestingly, a directly transmitted species-specific disease (FIV was not associated with geographic location, while exposure to indirectly transmitted diseases--vector-borne for Bartonella spp. and ingestion of oocysts via infected prey or environmental exposure for T. gondii--varied significantly by site. Pathogens transmitted by direct contact may be more dependent upon individual behaviors and intra-specific encounters. Future studies will integrate host density, as well as landscape features, to better

  5. Three pathogens in sympatric populations of pumas, bobcats, and domestic cats: Implications for infections disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevins, Sarah N.; Carver, Scott; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Alldredge, Mat; Logan, Kenneth A.; Riley, Seth P.D.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Boyce, Walter; Salman, Mo; Lappin, Michael R.; Crooks, Kevin R.; VandeWoude, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic landscape change can lead to increased opportunities for pathogen transmission between domestic and non-domestic animals. Pumas, bobcats, and domestic cats are sympatric in many areas of North America and share many of the same pathogens, some of which are zoonotic. We analyzed bobcat, puma, and feral domestic cat samples collected from targeted geographic areas. We examined exposure to three pathogens that are taxonomically diverse (bacterial, protozoal, viral), that incorporate multiple transmission strategies (vector-borne, environmental exposure/ingestion, and direct contact), and that vary in species-specificity. Bartonella spp., Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV), and Toxoplasma gondii IgG were detected in all three species with mean respective prevalence as follows: puma 16%, 41% and 75%; bobcat 31%, 22% and 43%; domestic cat 45%, 10% and 1%. Bartonella spp. were highly prevalent among domestic cats in Southern California compared to other cohort groups. Feline Immunodeficiency Virus exposure was primarily associated with species and age, and was not influenced by geographic location. Pumas were more likely to be infected with FIV than bobcats, with domestic cats having the lowest infection rate. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was high in both pumas and bobcats across all sites; in contrast, few domestic cats were seropositive, despite the fact that feral, free ranging domestic cats were targeted in this study. Interestingly, a directly transmitted species-specific disease (FIV) was not associated with geographic location, while exposure to indirectly transmitted diseases – vector-borne for Bartonella spp. and ingestion of oocysts via infected prey or environmental exposure for T. gondii – varied significantly by site. Pathogens transmitted by direct contact may be more dependent upon individual behaviors and intra-specific encounters. Future studies will integrate host density, as well as landscape features, to better

  6. Foot-and-mouth disease in British deer: transmission of virus to cattle, sheep and deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, E P; Herniman, K A; Lawman, M J; Sellers, R F

    1975-06-28

    After exposure for two hours to cattle with foot-and-mouth disease, each of the five species of deer found in the British countryside became infected. Clinical disease was typical and severe in the roe and muntjac deer, with some animals dying, less severe in the sika deer and usually subclinical in the fallow and red deer. Each species transmitted disease to its own species and to cattle and sheep. The amounts of virus present in the blood, and in oesophageal/pharyngeal samples and excreted as an aerosol during the course of the infection in the deer were similar to those recorded for the sheep and cattle in the same experiment. The fallow and sika deer commonly carried virus in the pharynx beyond 28 days after exposure; some red deer also became carriers. In epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, it is likely that deer would have such intimate contact with farm animals as occurred in this study. The natural behavior of free-living deer in the UK suggests that, although the five species are susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease, they are unlikely to be an important factor in the maintenance and transmission of the virus during an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in domestic livestock.

  7. Programming of maternal and offspring disease: impact of growth restriction, fetal sex and transmission across generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Jean N; Wlodek, Mary E; Moritz, Karen M; Cuffe, James S M

    2016-09-01

    Babies born small are at an increased risk of developing myriad adult diseases. While growth restriction increases disease risk in all individuals, often a second hit is required to unmask 'programmed' impairments in physiology. Programmed disease outcomes are demonstrated more commonly in male offspring compared with females, with these sex-specific outcomes partly attributed to different placenta-regulated growth strategies of the male and female fetus. Pregnancy is known to be a major risk factor for unmasking a number of conditions and can be considered a 'second hit' for women who were born small. As such, female offspring often develop impairments of physiology for the first time during pregnancy that present as pregnancy complications. Numerous maternal stressors can further increase the risk of developing a maternal complication during pregnancy. Importantly, these maternal complications can have long-term consequences for both the mother after pregnancy and the developing fetus. Conditions such as preeclampsia, gestational diabetes and hypertension as well as thyroid, liver and kidney diseases are all conditions that can complicate pregnancy and have long-term consequences for maternal and offspring health. Babies born to mothers who develop these conditions are often at a greater risk of developing disease in adulthood. This has implications as a mechanism for transmission of disease across generations. In this review, we discuss the evidence surrounding long-term intergenerational implications of being born small and/or experiencing stress during pregnancy on programming outcomes. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

  8. Animal Models of Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Santoro

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Allergic diseases have great impact on the quality of life of both people and domestic animals. They are increasing in prevalence in both animals and humans, possibly due to the changed lifestyle conditions and the decreased exposure to beneficial microorganisms. Dogs, in particular, suffer from environmental skin allergies and develop a clinical presentation which is very similar to the one of children with eczema. Thus, dogs are a very useful species to improve our understanding on the mechanisms involved in people’s allergies and a natural model to study eczema. Animal models are frequently used to elucidate mechanisms of disease and to control for confounding factors which are present in studies with patients with spontaneously occurring disease and to test new therapies that can be beneficial in both species. It has been found that drugs useful in one species can also have benefits in other species highlighting the importance of a comprehensive understanding of diseases across species and the value of comparative studies. The purpose of the current article is to review allergic diseases across species and to focus on how these diseases compare to the counterpart in people.

  9. Predictive modeling of coral disease distribution within a reef system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth J Williams

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Diseases often display complex and distinct associations with their environment due to differences in etiology, modes of transmission between hosts, and the shifting balance between pathogen virulence and host resistance. Statistical modeling has been underutilized in coral disease research to explore the spatial patterns that result from this triad of interactions. We tested the hypotheses that: 1 coral diseases show distinct associations with multiple environmental factors, 2 incorporating interactions (synergistic collinearities among environmental variables is important when predicting coral disease spatial patterns, and 3 modeling overall coral disease prevalence (the prevalence of multiple diseases as a single proportion value will increase predictive error relative to modeling the same diseases independently. Four coral diseases: Porites growth anomalies (PorGA, Porites tissue loss (PorTL, Porites trematodiasis (PorTrem, and Montipora white syndrome (MWS, and their interactions with 17 predictor variables were modeled using boosted regression trees (BRT within a reef system in Hawaii. Each disease showed distinct associations with the predictors. Environmental predictors showing the strongest overall associations with the coral diseases were both biotic and abiotic. PorGA was optimally predicted by a negative association with turbidity, PorTL and MWS by declines in butterflyfish and juvenile parrotfish abundance respectively, and PorTrem by a modal relationship with Porites host cover. Incorporating interactions among predictor variables contributed to the predictive power of our models, particularly for PorTrem. Combining diseases (using overall disease prevalence as the model response, led to an average six-fold increase in cross-validation predictive deviance over modeling the diseases individually. We therefore recommend coral diseases to be modeled separately, unless known to have etiologies that respond in a similar manner to

  10. Disease prevalence and transmission of Microsporidium phytoseiuli infecting the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis (Acari: Phytoseiidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnson, S; Keddie, B A

    2001-02-01

    Isolated colonies of the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis, were used to gain information regarding prevalence and transmission of Microsporidium phytoseiuli. Two colonies of P. persimilis were reared on spider mite (Tetranychus urticae)-infested bean plants in isolated cages. Disease prevalence of predators from Colony 1 remained relatively low (between 0 and 15%) over 57 weeks of observation whereas disease prevalence of predators from Colony 2 increased over 3 months (from 12 to 100%). Disease prevalence among predators from Colony 1 had increased to 100% 2 months after weekly sampling had ceased for this colony and periodic sampling confirmed that disease prevalence among individuals of both colonies remained at 100%. Microsporidian spores were not detected in randomly chosen samples of T. urticae prey mites that were removed and examined biweekly during this period. Although numerous microsporidian spores were observed in smear preparations of fecal pellets examined by light microscopy, spores were not observed on leaf surfaces or predator feces when examined by SEM. The latter appeared as intact aggregates composed of numerous dumbbell-shaped crystals and it is unlikely that spores are liberated from intact fecal pellets onto leaf surfaces. Vertical transmission of M. phytoseiuli was 100%; horizontal transmission was low (14.3%) and occurred only when immature P. persimilis were permitted to develop in contact with infected immature and adult predators. The mean number of eggs produced per mated pair was highest when uninfected females were mated with uninfected males (63.2 eggs per mated pair). Although mean egg production decreased when one or both parents were infected, not all differences were significant. Male predatory mites did not contribute to infection of their progeny. Results suggest that routine examination of P. persimilis for microsporidian spores is essential for the management of M. phytoseiuli within P. persimilis colonies. Low disease

  11. Estimating risk factors for farm-level transmission of disease: Foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R. Bessell

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Controlling an epidemic would be aided by establishing whether particular individuals in infected populations are more likely to transmit infection. However, few analyses have characterised such individuals. Such analyses require both data on who infected whom and on the likely determinants of transmission; data that are available at the farm level for the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease epidemic in Great Britain. Using these data a putative number of daughter infected premises (IPs resulting from each IP was calculated where these daughters were within 3 km of the IP. A set of possible epidemiological, demographic, spatial and temporal risk factors were analysed, with the final multivariate generalised linear model (Poisson error term having 6 statistically significant (p<0.05 main effects including geographic area, local cattle and sheep densities, and the number of non-IP culls. This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori. Such information could be used to help prioritise the response to an epidemic. Keywords: Foot and mouth disease, Epidemiology, Risk modelling, Livestock, Disease control

  12. Dynamic modeling of fluid power transmissions for wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diepeveen, N.F.B.; Jarquin Laguna, A.

    2011-01-01

    Fluid power transmission for wind turbines is quietly gaining more ground/interest. The principle of the various concepts presented so far is to convert aerodynamic torque of the rotor blades into a pressurized fluid flow by means of a positive displacement pump. At the other end of the fluid power

  13. A Multi-objective Model for Transmission Planning Under Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Chunyu; Wang, Qi; Ding, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The significant growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) associated with smart grid technologies has prompted excessive uncertainties in the transmission system. The most representative is the novel notation of commercial aggregator who has lighted a bright way for DERs to participate power...

  14. Tuberculosis in a South African prison – a transmission modelling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Prisons are recognised internationally as institutions with very high tuberculosis (TB) burdens where transmission is predominantly determined by contact between infectious and susceptible prisoners. A recent South African court case described the conditions under which prisoners awaiting trial were kept.

  15. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-04-05

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  16. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E.; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K.; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J.; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E.; Naumova, Elena N.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Ready, Paul D.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

  17. Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazil: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jörg

    2014-08-01

    To estimate the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and the risk of congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Brazil, through a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched electronic databases, grey literature and reference lists of included publications to identify epidemiological studies on the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women and on the congenital transmission rate of T. cruzi infection in Brazil published between January 1980 and June 2013. Pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using fixed- and random-effects models. Sixteen articles were included - 12 studies on the prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women (549,359 pregnant women) and nine on congenital transmission rates (1687 children born to infected mothers). Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women ranged from 0.1% to 8.5%, and congenital transmission rates from 0% to 5.2%. The pooled prevalence of Chagas disease among pregnant women across studies was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-2.0); the pooled congenital transmission rate was 1.7% (95% CI: 0.9-3.1). In 2010, 34,629 pregnant women were estimated to be infected with T. cruzi, and 312-1073 children born (mean: 589 cases) with congenital infection. Congenital Chagas disease is a neglected public health problem in Brazil. Systematic congenital Chagas disease control programs through routine prenatal screening for T. cruzi should be widely implemented in Brazil's endemic areas, to identify infected pregnant women and newborns at risk of congenital infection. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. AIDS e doenças oportunistas transmissíveis na faixa de fronteira Brasileira AIDS and transmissible opportunistic diseases in the Brazilian border area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Luiz Rodrigues-Júnior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUÇÃO: A transmissão do HIV e de outras doenças transmissíveis, de pessoa a pessoa, pode ser associada à mobilidade humana. Este trabalho avaliou a incidência de doenças oportunistas transmissíveis entre os casos de AIDS, nos municípios da faixa de fronteira brasileira. MÉTODOS: Os municípios da faixa de fronteira brasileira foram agrupados em três regiões culturais; foram consideradas as notificações feitas ao Ministério da Saúde, entre 1990 e 2003, que tenham sido feitas com os critérios de definição CDC adaptado, Rio de Janeiro/Caracas e óbito; as doenças oportunistas detectadas foram agrupadas de acordo com o tipo de transmissão: 1 inalação do agente; 2 ingestão de água/alimento contaminado e 3 contato interpessoal. A análise descritiva considerou regiões culturais, anos de escolaridade, categoria de transmissão, sexo e faixa etária. RESULTADOS: Houve diferentes padrões de incidência de AIDS nos grupos de doenças oportunistas em cada região cultural. A região extremo-sul apresentou a maior incidência de AIDS; o número de casos de AIDS do sexo feminino foi maior na categoria heterossexual; o número de casos de AIDS do sexo masculino foi maior entre usuários de drogas injetáveis; as doenças transmitidas pelo contato interpessoal foram as mais frequentes, destacando a incidência de monilíases; a tuberculose e a pneumonia foram as mais frequentes dentre as doenças transmitidas pela inalação do agente; as doenças transmitidas pela ingestão de água/alimentos contaminados mostraram um padrão de incidência estável. CONCLUSÕES: A fronteira brasileira é um espaço geográfico importante e heterogêneo; o enfrentamento da AIDS deve reconhecer as diferentes geografias culturais.INTRODUCTION: Person-to-person transmission of HIV and other communicable diseases may be associated with human geographic mobility. This article evaluated the incidence of transmissible opportunistic diseases among

  19. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osadolor Ebhuoma

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical

  20. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-06-14

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical

  1. Visual Darkness Reduces Perceived Risk of Contagious-Disease Transmission From Interpersonal Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Ping; Zhong, Chen-Bo

    2018-05-01

    We examined the psychological impact of visual darkness on people's perceived risk of contagious-disease transmission. We posited that darkness triggers an abstract construal level and increases perceived social distance from others, rendering threats from others to seem less relevant to the self. We found that participants staying in a dimly lit room (Studies 1 and 3-5) or wearing sunglasses (Study 2) tended to estimate a lower risk of catching contagious diseases from others than did those staying in a brightly lit room or wearing clear glasses. The effect persisted in both laboratory (Studies 1-4) and real-life settings (Study 5). The effect arises because visual darkness elevates perceived social distance from the contagion (Study 3) and is attenuated among abstract (vs. concrete) thinkers (Study 4). These findings delineate a systematic, unconscious influence of visual darkness-a subtle yet pervasive situational factor-on perceived risk of contagion. Theoretical contributions and policy implications are discussed.

  2. Histochemical approaches to assess cell-to-cell transmission of misfolded proteins in neurodegenerative diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Natale

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Formation, aggregation and transmission of abnormal proteins are common features in neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and Huntington’s disease. The mechanisms underlying protein alterations in neurodegenerative diseases remain controversial. Novel findings highlighted altered protein clearing systems as common biochemical pathways which generate protein misfolding, which in turn causes protein aggregation and protein spreading. In fact, proteinaceous aggregates are prone to cell-to-cell propagation. This is reminiscent of what happens in prion disorders, where the prion protein misfolds thus forming aggregates which spread to neighbouring cells. For this reason, the term prionoids is currently used to emphasize how several misfolded proteins are transmitted in neurodegenerative diseases following this prion-like pattern. Histochemical techniques including the use of specific antibodies covering both light and electron microscopy offer a powerful tool to describe these phenomena and investigate specific molecular steps. These include: prion like protein alterations; glycation of prion-like altered proteins to form advanced glycation end-products (AGEs; mechanisms of extracellular secretion; interaction of AGEs with specific receptors placed on neighbouring cells (RAGEs. The present manuscript comments on these phenomena aimed to provide a consistent scenario of the available histochemical approaches to dissect each specific step.

  3. A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Sandip; McElwain, Terry F; Wan, Yan

    2011-10-01

    Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis) and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations), and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk) and points in the spread network (e.g., transhumance vs. sedentary herds). In addition, a preliminary

  4. A Hierarchical Modeling for Reactive Power Optimization With Joint Transmission and Distribution Networks by Curve Fitting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Tao; Li, Cheng; Huang, Can

    2018-01-01

    –slave structure and improves traditional centralized modeling methods by alleviating the big data problem in a control center. Specifically, the transmission-distribution-network coordination issue of the hierarchical modeling method is investigated. First, a curve-fitting approach is developed to provide a cost......In order to solve the reactive power optimization with joint transmission and distribution networks, a hierarchical modeling method is proposed in this paper. It allows the reactive power optimization of transmission and distribution networks to be performed separately, leading to a master...... optimality. Numerical results on two test systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical modeling and curve-fitting methods....

  5. Communicative Modelling of Cultural Transmission and Evolution Through a Holographic Cognition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambjörn Naeve

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents communicative ways to model the transmission and evolution of the processes and artefacts of a culture as the result of ongoing interactions between its members - both at the tacit and the explicit level. The purpose is not to model the entire cultural process, but to provide semantically rich “conceptual placeholders” for modelling any cultural activity that is considered important enough within a certain context. The general purpose of communicative modelling is to create models that improve the quality of communication between people. In order to capture the subjective aspects of Gregory Bateson’s definition of information as “a difference that makes a difference,” the article introduces a Holographic Cognition Model that uses optical holography as an analogy for human cognition, with the object beam of holography corresponding to the first difference (the situation that the cognitive agent encounters, and the reference beam of holography corresponding to the subjective experiences and biases that the agent brings to the situation, and which makes the second difference (the interference/interpretation pattern unique for each agent. By combining the HCM with a semantically rich and recursive form of process modelling, based on the SECI-theory of knowledge creation, we arrive at way to model the cultural transmission and evolution process that is consistent with the Unified Theory of Information (the Triple-C model with its emphasis on intra-, inter- and supra-actions.

  6. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  7. Animal Models for Periodontal Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helieh S. Oz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Animal models and cell cultures have contributed new knowledge in biological sciences, including periodontology. Although cultured cells can be used to study physiological processes that occur during the pathogenesis of periodontitis, the complex host response fundamentally responsible for this disease cannot be reproduced in vitro. Among the animal kingdom, rodents, rabbits, pigs, dogs, and nonhuman primates have been used to model human periodontitis, each with advantages and disadvantages. Periodontitis commonly has been induced by placing a bacterial plaque retentive ligature in the gingival sulcus around the molar teeth. In addition, alveolar bone loss has been induced by inoculation or injection of human oral bacteria (e.g., Porphyromonas gingivalis in different animal models. While animal models have provided a wide range of important data, it is sometimes difficult to determine whether the findings are applicable to humans. In addition, variability in host responses to bacterial infection among individuals contributes significantly to the expression of periodontal diseases. A practical and highly reproducible model that truly mimics the natural pathogenesis of human periodontal disease has yet to be developed.

  8. Animal Models for Periodontal Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oz, Helieh S.; Puleo, David A.

    2011-01-01

    Animal models and cell cultures have contributed new knowledge in biological sciences, including periodontology. Although cultured cells can be used to study physiological processes that occur during the pathogenesis of periodontitis, the complex host response fundamentally responsible for this disease cannot be reproduced in vitro. Among the animal kingdom, rodents, rabbits, pigs, dogs, and nonhuman primates have been used to model human periodontitis, each with advantages and disadvantages. Periodontitis commonly has been induced by placing a bacterial plaque retentive ligature in the gingival sulcus around the molar teeth. In addition, alveolar bone loss has been induced by inoculation or injection of human oral bacteria (e.g., Porphyromonas gingivalis) in different animal models. While animal models have provided a wide range of important data, it is sometimes difficult to determine whether the findings are applicable to humans. In addition, variability in host responses to bacterial infection among individuals contributes significantly to the expression of periodontal diseases. A practical and highly reproducible model that truly mimics the natural pathogenesis of human periodontal disease has yet to be developed. PMID:21331345

  9. Experimental oral transmission of chronic wasting disease to reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon B Mitchell

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids, remains prevalent in North American elk, white-tailed deer and mule deer. A natural case of CWD in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus has not been reported despite potential habitat overlap with CWD-infected deer or elk herds. This study investigates the experimental transmission of CWD from elk or white-tailed deer to reindeer by the oral route of inoculation. Ante-mortem testing of the three reindeer exposed to CWD from white-tailed deer identified the accumulation of pathological PrP (PrP(CWD in the recto-anal mucosa associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT of two reindeer at 13.4 months post-inoculation. Terminal CWD occurred in the two RAMALT-positive reindeer at 18.5 and 20 months post-inoculation while one other reindeer in the white-tailed deer CWD inoculum group and none of the 3 reindeer exposed to elk CWD developed disease. Tissue distribution analysis of PrP(CWD in CWD-affected reindeer revealed widespread deposition in central and peripheral nervous systems, lymphoreticular tissues, the gastrointestinal tract, neuroendocrine tissues and cardiac muscle. Analysis of prion protein gene (PRNP sequences in the 6 reindeer identified polymorphisms at residues 2 (V/M, 129 (G/S, 138 (S/N and 169 (V/M. These findings demonstrate that (i a sub-population of reindeer are susceptible to CWD by oral inoculation implicating the potential for transmission to other Rangifer species, and (ii certain reindeer PRNP polymorphisms may be protective against CWD infection.

  10. Defining sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease strains and their transmission properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Matthew T.; Will, Robert G.; Manson, Jean C.

    2010-01-01

    The biological determinants of the phenotypic variation in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) are unknown. To categorize sCJD cases, the prion protein (PrP) codon 129 genotype and the biochemical characteristics of the disease-associated form of PrP (PrPSc) can be combined to form six subgroups (MM1, MM2, MV1, MV2, VV1, and VV2). This classification largely correlates with the known variation in the clinical and pathological features of sCJD, with the MM1 and MV1 cases representing the “classic” phenotype of sCJD. To address how this classification relates to different strains of sCJD we have inoculated each subgroup of sCJD to a panel of mice expressing different forms of the human PRNP gene (129MM, 129VV, and 129MV). We have established that all subtypes are transmissible to at least one genotype of mouse, and both agent and host factors determine transmission efficiency and the form of PrPSc deposited in the brain. Moreover, we have identified four distinct strains of sCJD using our in vivo strain typing panel. PMID:20547859

  11. Mathematical model on Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Wenrui; Friedman, Avner

    2016-11-18

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that destroys memory and cognitive skills. AD is characterized by the presence of two types of neuropathological hallmarks: extracellular plaques consisting of amyloid β-peptides and intracellular neurofibrillary tangles of hyperphosphorylated tau proteins. The disease affects 5 million people in the United States and 44 million world-wide. Currently there is no drug that can cure, stop or even slow the progression of the disease. If no cure is found, by 2050 the number of alzheimer's patients in the U.S. will reach 15 million and the cost of caring for them will exceed $ 1 trillion annually. The present paper develops a mathematical model of AD that includes neurons, astrocytes, microglias and peripheral macrophages, as well as amyloid β aggregation and hyperphosphorylated tau proteins. The model is represented by a system of partial differential equations. The model is used to simulate the effect of drugs that either failed in clinical trials, or are currently in clinical trials. Based on these simulations it is suggested that combined therapy with TNF- α inhibitor and anti amyloid β could yield significant efficacy in slowing the progression of AD.

  12. Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code%Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    呼义翔; 雷天时; 吴撼宇; 郭宁; 韩娟娟; 邱爱慈; 王亮平; 黄涛; 丛培天; 张信军; 李岩; 曾正中; 孙铁平

    2011-01-01

    The transmission-line-circuit model of the Z accelerator, developed originally by W. A. STYGAR, P. A. CORCORAN, et al., is revised. The revised model uses different calculations for the electron loss and flow impedance in the magnetically insulated transmission line system of the Z accelerator before and after magnetic insulation is established. By including electron pressure and zero electric field at the cathode, a closed set of equations is obtained at each time step, and dynamic shunt resistance (used to represent any electron loss to the anode) and flow impedance are solved, which have been incorporated into the transmission line code for simulations of the vacuum section in the Z accelerator. Finally, the results are discussed in comparison with earlier findings to show the effectiveness and limitations of the model.

  13. A comprehensive computational model of sound transmission through the porcine lung.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Zoujun; Peng, Ying; Henry, Brian M; Mansy, Hansen A; Sandler, Richard H; Royston, Thomas J

    2014-09-01

    A comprehensive computational simulation model of sound transmission through the porcine lung is introduced and experimentally evaluated. This "subject-specific" model utilizes parenchymal and major airway geometry derived from x-ray CT images. The lung parenchyma is modeled as a poroviscoelastic material using Biot theory. A finite element (FE) mesh of the lung that includes airway detail is created and used in comsol FE software to simulate the vibroacoustic response of the lung to sound input at the trachea. The FE simulation model is validated by comparing simulation results to experimental measurements using scanning laser Doppler vibrometry on the surface of an excised, preserved lung. The FE model can also be used to calculate and visualize vibroacoustic pressure and motion inside the lung and its airways caused by the acoustic input. The effect of diffuse lung fibrosis and of a local tumor on the lung acoustic response is simulated and visualized using the FE model. In the future, this type of visualization can be compared and matched with experimentally obtained elastographic images to better quantify regional lung material properties to noninvasively diagnose and stage disease and response to treatment.

  14. Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA's modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes

  15. Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA`s modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes.

  16. Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram; Cordova, Julio Alvin Vacacela; Aldhahri, Musab; Dolatshahi-Pirouz, Alireza; Akbari, Mohsen; Nikkhah, Mehdi

    2017-09-01

    There is a great need for the development of biomimetic human tissue models that allow elucidation of the pathophysiological conditions involved in disease initiation and progression. Conventional two-dimensional (2D) in vitro assays and animal models have been unable to fully recapitulate the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue models have propelled our understanding of diseases' characteristics (i.e. initiation and progression). The future perspectives on the use of bioprinted 3D tissue models for drug discovery application are also highlighted.

  17. Issues affecting the electricity transmission system in Mexico under a competitive integrated model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila Rosales, M.A.; Gonzalez Flores, J. [Federal Electricity Commission, Mexico City (Mexico)

    2008-07-01

    The electricity sector in Mexico is undergoing a process of significant structural change. The traditional industry framework has been exposed to new market structures and greater competition, both of which are being introduced by changing regulations regarding who can generate, transmit, distribute and sell electricity. Mexico's power industry is changing to a competitive integrated model. Electricity industry restructuring is partly based on the assumption that transmission systems should be flexible, reliable, and open to all exchanges no matter where the suppliers and consumers of energy are located and who they are. However, neither the existing transmission systems nor its management infrastructure can fully support this open exchange. This paper described the primary issues affecting the transmission system in Mexico under a competitive environment and a transmission expansion planning approach that took the uncertainties associated with the location and size of new generating power stations into consideration in order to produce least-cost and robust transmission plans. The paper described the planning process, including a rigorous analysis of the economics of the resulting transmission plans. Specifically, the paper described the current regulatory framework and supply adequacy as well as current procedures and methodologies for transmission management and expansion planning. The transmission planning methodology was also presented. This included a minimum cost analysis; profit analysis; and least-cost transmission plan. It was concluded that the transmission expansion planning approach stressed that a horizon year viewpoint was important because transmission additions have long-term use. The transmission expansion planning approach, further defined the process of selecting transmission projects as one of comparing and optimizing attributes such as near-term needs; long-term utilization; contribution to overall reliability; and favorable or least

  18. Risks of Zoonosic Disease transmission in pets in Sancti Spíritus City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odmara M. Castellanos Yero

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available For the development of this work the urban zone of Sancti Spíritus was taken as a sample. The main objective was to identify the risk factors associated to the ignorance of zoonosis transmitted by pet animals. The tests were applied to 50 homes in 5 People’s Council, having as a total 250 housings. Dogs were the animals which predominated in houses (66.6%.The risks of Zoonosis showed that 393 persons are in direct contact with the animals, 330 played with them and 234 bathe them. The 64.0 % of the persons that were tested knew about the risk of animals for the human health, the lowest knowledge was obtained in the People’s Council of kilo 12 and Jesus Maria. Tested persons agreed that animals have lowest risk of transmitting disease to human. The 62 % of tested persons said that the most common way of zoonosic disease transmission is by bites. For the tested population the most known zoonosic diseases were: Leptospirosis, Brucellosis, Rabia and Salmonellosis, the population showed great desire for being training about zoonosic diseases, giving more responsibility in this task to Veterinarian Service (75.2 %.

  19. Mycobacterium avium complex--the role of potable water in disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiley, H; Keegan, A; Giglio, S; Bentham, R

    2012-08-01

    Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is a group of opportunistic pathogens of major public health concern. It is responsible for a wide spectrum of disease dependent on subspecies, route of infection and patients pre-existing conditions. Presently, there is limited research on the incidence of MAC infection that considers both pulmonary and other clinical manifestations. MAC has been isolated from various terrestrial and aquatic environments including natural waters, engineered water systems and soils. Identifying the specific environmental sources responsible for human infection is essential in minimizing disease prevalence. This paper reviews current literature and case studies regarding the wide spectrum of disease caused by MAC and the role of potable water in disease transmission. Potable water was recognized as a putative pathway for MAC infection. Contaminated potable water sources associated with human infection included warm water distribution systems, showers, faucets, household drinking water, swimming pools and hot tub spas. MAC can maintain long-term contamination of potable water sources through its high resistance to disinfectants, association with biofilms and intracellular parasitism of free-living protozoa. Further research is required to investigate the efficiency of water treatment processes against MAC and into construction and maintenance of warm water distribution systems and the role they play in MAC proliferation. No claim to Australian Government works Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  20. Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardin, Jaline; Bever, Caitlin A; Bridenbecker, Daniel; Hamainza, Busiku; Silumbe, Kafula; Miller, John M; Eisele, Thomas P; Eckhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A

    2017-06-12

    Reactive case detection could be a powerful tool in malaria elimination, as it selectively targets transmission pockets. However, field operations have yet to demonstrate under which conditions, if any, reactive case detection is best poised to push a region to elimination. This study uses mathematical modelling to assess how baseline transmission intensity and local interconnectedness affect the impact of reactive activities in the context of other possible intervention packages. Communities in Southern Province, Zambia, where elimination operations are currently underway, were used as representatives of three archetypes of malaria transmission: low-transmission, high household density; high-transmission, low household density; and high-transmission, high household density. Transmission at the spatially-connected household level was simulated with a dynamical model of malaria transmission, and local variation in vectorial capacity and intervention coverage were parameterized according to data collected from the area. Various potential intervention packages were imposed on each of the archetypical settings and the resulting likelihoods of elimination by the end of 2020 were compared. Simulations predict that success of elimination campaigns in both low- and high-transmission areas is strongly dependent on stemming the flow of imported infections, underscoring the need for regional-scale strategies capable of reducing transmission concurrently across many connected areas. In historically low-transmission areas, treatment of clinical malaria should form the cornerstone of elimination operations, as most malaria infections in these areas are symptomatic and onward transmission would be mitigated through health system strengthening; reactive case detection has minimal impact in these settings. In historically high-transmission areas, vector control and case management are crucial for limiting outbreak size, and the asymptomatic reservoir must be addressed through

  1. Mouse Models of Graves' Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Nagayama, Yuji

    2005-01-01

    Graves' disease is characterized by overstimulation of the thyroid gland with agonistic autoantibodies against the thyrotropin (TSH) receptor, leading to hyperthyroidism and diffuse hyperplasia of the thyroid gland. Our and other laboratories have recently established several animal models of Graves' hyperthyroidism with novel immunization approaches, i.e., in vivo expression of the TSH receptor by injection of syngeneic living cells co-expressing the TSH receptor and major histocompatibility...

  2. A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Huang, Tang-Luen; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Foot-and-mouth disease virus : the role of infection routes and species differences in the transmission of FMDV

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda Cabrera, C.

    2015-01-01

    ÁFoot-and-mouth disease is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals (e.g. cattle, sheep, pigs) and can cause severe economic losses to the farm animal industries. The aim of this thesis was to quantify underlying mechanisms regarding transmission of FMDV. With data from past animal

  4. Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram

    2017-01-01

    the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical...... challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue...... models have propelled our understanding of diseases’ characteristics (i.e. initiation and progression). The future perspectives on the use of bioprinted 3D tissue models for drug discovery application are also highlighted....

  5. Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Chapman, Ruth; Hughes, Owain; Choi, Yoon Hong

    2011-09-27

    To compare the effect and cost effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, taking into account differences in licensure indications, protection against non-vaccine type disease, protection against disease related to HPV types 6 and 11, and reported long term immunogenicity. A model of HPV transmission and disease previously used to inform UK vaccination policy, updated with recent evidence and expanded to include scenarios where the two vaccines differ in duration of protection, cross protection, and end points prevented. United Kingdom. Population Males and females aged 12-75 years. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios for both vaccines and additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective as the bivalent vaccine. The bivalent vaccine needs to be cheaper than the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective, mainly because of its lack of protection against anogenital warts. The price difference per dose ranges from a median of £19 (interquartile range £12-£27) to £35 (£27-£44) across scenarios about vaccine duration, cross protection, and end points prevented (assuming one quality adjusted life year (QALY) is valued at £30,000 and both vaccines can prevent all types of HPV related cancers). The quadrivalent vaccine may have an advantage over the bivalent vaccine in reducing healthcare costs and QALYs lost. The bivalent vaccine may have an advantage in preventing death due to cancer. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the differential benefit of the two vaccines.

  6. Multi-scale modelling of supercapacitors: From molecular simulations to a transmission line model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pean, C.; Rotenberg, B.; Simon, P.; Salanne, M.

    2016-09-01

    We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a typical nanoporous-carbon based supercapacitor. The organic electrolyte consists in 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium and hexafluorophosphate ions dissolved in acetonitrile. We simulate systems at equilibrium, for various applied voltages. This allows us to determine the relevant thermodynamic (capacitance) and transport (in-pore resistivities) properties. These quantities are then injected in a transmission line model for testing its ability to predict the charging properties of the device. The results from this macroscopic model are in good agreement with non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, which validates its use for interpreting electrochemical impedance experiments.

  7. Mesenchymal Stem Cells Inhibit Transmission of α-Synuclein by Modulating Clathrin-Mediated Endocytosis in a Parkinsonian Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Se Hee Oh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Ample evidence suggests that α-synuclein is released from cells and propagated from one area of the brain to others via cell-to-cell transmission. In terms of their prion-like behavior, α-synuclein propagation plays key roles in the pathogenesis and progression of α-synucleinopathies. Using α-synuclein-enriched models, we show that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs inhibited α-synuclein transmission by blocking the clathrin-mediated endocytosis of extracellular α-synuclein via modulation of the interaction with N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors, which led to a prosurvival effect on cortical and dopaminergic neurons with functional improvement of motor deficits in α-synuclein-enriched models. Furthermore, we identify that galectin-1, a soluble factor derived from MSCs, played an important role in the transmission control of aggregated α-synuclein in these models. The present data indicated that MSCs exert neuroprotective properties through inhibition of extracellular α-synuclein transmission, suggesting that the property of MSCs may act as a disease-modifying therapy in subjects with α-synucleinopathies.

  8. The behaviour of Homo sapiens, the forgotten factor in the transmission of tropical disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillett, J D

    1985-01-01

    The behaviour of the pathogens responsible for tropical disease and the behaviour of the hosts other than man are both studied in great detail, but the behaviour of man, the third component in these cycles of transmission, is for the most part totally and inexplicably disregarded. Even when the pathogens are actively brought to us through the agency of an arthropod host, we too often ease the passage of the vectors either by unthinkingly providing facilities for their breeding or by neglecting the simple steps that can be taken to prevent their feeding on us. The problem resolves itself into two parts, (i) the collection and collation of relevant data on human behaviour, and (ii) the taking of steps to change this behaviour. Part two has recently been greatly facilitated by the development of radio transmission via artificial satellite. While WHO is now making a start on both these aspects it is doing so at a relatively low level. Instead, the two phases of this new approach should be given top priority even if it means large scale reorganization of relevant university departments and even of WHO itself. We have, after all, had almost 100 years to try out the old methods and, as far as the Third World is concerned, they have for the most part failed.

  9. Oregon ESA 2010 BKD vertical transmission - Test of analyses for bacterial kidney disease as predictors of vertical transmission

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Although the pathogen causing bacterial kidney disease is known to be transmitted from broodstock female to offspring, there is large uncertainty around the...

  10. Meat and bone meal and mineral feed additives may increase the risk of oral prion disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher J.; McKenzie, Debbie; Pedersen, Joel A.; Aiken, Judd M.

    2011-01-01

    Ingestion of prion-contaminated materials is postulated to be a primary route of prion disease transmission. Binding of prions to soil (micro)particles dramatically enhances peroral disease transmission relative to unbound prions, and it was hypothesized that micrometer-sized particles present in other consumed materials may affect prion disease transmission via the oral route of exposure. Small, insoluble particles are present in many substances, including soil, human foods, pharmaceuticals, and animal feeds. It is known that meat and bone meal (MBM), a feed additive believed responsible for the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), contains particles smaller than 20 μm and that the pathogenic prion protein binds to MBM. The potentiation of disease transmission via the oral route by exposure to MBM or three micrometer-sized mineral feed additives was determined. Data showed that when the disease agent was bound to any of the tested materials, the penetrance of disease was increased compared to unbound prions. Our data suggest that in feed or other prion-contaminated substances consumed by animals or, potentially, humans, the addition of MBM or the presence of microparticles could heighten risks of prion disease acquisition.

  11. A survey of the transmission of infectious diseases/infections between wild and domestic ungulates in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The domestic animals/wildlife interface is becoming a global issue of growing interest. However, despite studies on wildlife diseases being in expansion, the epidemiological role of wild animals in the transmission of infectious diseases remains unclear most of the time. Multiple diseases affecting livestock have already been identified in wildlife, especially in wild ungulates. The first objective of this paper was to establish a list of infections already reported in European wild ungulates. For each disease/infection, three additional materials develop examples already published, specifying the epidemiological role of the species as assigned by the authors. Furthermore, risk factors associated with interactions between wild and domestic animals and regarding emerging infectious diseases are summarized. Finally, the wildlife surveillance measures implemented in different European countries are presented. New research areas are proposed in order to provide efficient tools to prevent the transmission of diseases between wild ungulates and livestock. PMID:21635726

  12. The current screening programme for congenital transmission of Chagas disease in Catalonia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basile, L; Oliveira, I; Ciruela, P; Plasencia, A

    2011-09-22

    Due to considerable numbers of migrants from Chagas disease-endemic countries living in Catalonia, the Catalonian Health Department has recently implemented a screening programme for preventing congenital transmission, targeting Latin American pregnant women who attend antenatal consultations. Diagnosis of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in women is based on two positive serological tests. Screening of newborns from mothers with positive serology is based on a parasitological test during the first 48 hours of life and/or conventional serological analysis at the age of nine months. If either of these tests is positive, treatment with benznidazole is started following the World Health Organization's recommendations. The epidemiological surveillance of the programme is based on the Microbiological Reporting System of Catalonia, a well established network of laboratories. Once a positive case is reported, the responsible physician is asked to complete a structured epidemiological questionnaire. Clinical and demographic data are registered in the Voluntary Case Registry of Chagas Disease, a database administered by the Catalonian Health Department. It is expected that this programme will improve the understanding of the real burden of Chagas disease in the region. Furthermore, this initiative could encourage the implementation of similar programmes in other regions of Spain and even in other European countries.

  13. Pathogens and diseases of freshwater mussels in the United States: Studies on bacterial transmission and depuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starliper, Clifford E.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

    2011-01-01

    Unionid mussels are recognized as important contributors to healthy aquatic ecosystems, as well as bioindicators of environmental perturbations. Because they are sedentary, filter feeding animals and require hosts (i.e., fishes) to transform embryonic glochidia, mussels are susceptible to direct adverse environmental parameters, and indirect parameters that restrict the timely presence of the host(s). Their numbers have declined in recent decades to a point that this fauna is regarded as one of the most imperiled in North America. The most significant threat to populations of native unionids in recent years has been the introduction and spread of zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha. Many federal and state agencies, and private interests are now engaged in mussel conservation efforts, including collecting selected imperiled species from impacted rivers and lakes and propagating them at refuges for future population augmentations. One essential consideration with mussel propagation and their intensive culture at refugia is the prevention of pathogen introductions and control of diseases. Currently, there are few reports of etiological agents causing diseases among freshwater mussels; however, because of increased observations of mussel die-offs in conjunction with transfers of live animals between natural waters and refugia, disease problems can be anticipated to emerge. This review summarizes research to develop bacterial isolation techniques, study pathogen transmission between fish and mussels, identify causes of seasonal mussel die-offs, and develop non-destructive methods for pathogen detection. These efforts were done to develop disease preventative techniques for use by resource managers to avoid potential large-scale disease problems in restoration and population augmentation efforts among imperiled populations.

  14. Transmission of hazardous diseases via nanobacterial contamination of medical and dental equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafar Kolahi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nanobacteria (calcifying nanoparticles, nanobes are one of the most controversial issues in contemporary biology. Studies show accumulating evidence on association of nanobacteria with pathologic calcifications such as kidney stone, arterial plaque, calcification of coronary arteries, and cardiac valves calculus. The Hypothesis: Nanobacteria can tolerate harsh conditions extremely well. The apatite mineral layer around the organism and slow metabolism is likely to be the reason for the resistance of nanobacteria. They showed a wide resistance to the several disinfecting and sterilizating chemicals as well as autoclaving, ultraviolet light, microwaves, heating and drying treatments. Hence, it seems logic to postulate that hazardous diseases can be easily transmitted via nanobacterial contamination of medical and dental equipment. Evaluation of the Hypothesis: It is not enough to claim an agent not living according to the standard view on living creatures, as irrelevant to biological safety of cell cultures, or to human and animal health. Although the nature of prions is still under debate and prions are classified as nonliving, they exist and cause diseases, and thus form a serious risk for animal and human health. The risk was recognized only after enormous economical losses. It appears that nanobacteria situation is rather similar, except the fact that nanobacteria appear to cause or contribute to common hazardous diseases of the mankind. Hence, world-widely well-known organizations such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and the World Health Organization should pay more attention to transmission of hazardous diseases via nanobacterial contamination of medical and dental equipment.

  15. [Possible oral transmission of Chagas disease among hydrocarbons sector workers in Casanare, Colombia, 2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuleta-Dueñas, Liliana Patricia; López-Quiroga, Ángela Johana; Torres-Torres, Fernando; Castañeda-Porras, Oneida

    2017-06-01

    Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent for Chagas disease, can be transmitted by oral intake of contaminated food or drinks. During epidemiological week 14 of 2014, two cases of acute Chagas disease were notified among hydrocarbons sector workers in Paz de Ariporo, Casanare. To characterize the affected population, to establish control and prevention measures and to confirm the outbreak. We conducted an outbreak investigation that included the following components: a) Search for symptomatic people compatible with Chagas disease according to the case definition for their referral to medical services; b) entomological survey (192/197 houses); c) sanitary inspection and microbiological analysis of food samples; and d) study of reservoirs. Data management and analysis were done with Epi-Info 7.1.5 using descriptive statistics. We also calculated intradomicile and peridomicile triatomine infestation indexes. We detected 552 exposed people; 40 had the disease (7.2%), of whom seven were women (17,5%) and 33, men (82.5%), i.e., a male-female ratio of 5:1. The mean age was 39.1 ± 10.8 years; the attack rate was 7.2% and lethality, 5% (2/40). Symptoms included fever (100% of cases), headache (80%), myalgia and arthralgia (65%), facial edema (55%), and abdominal pain (37.5%). The mean incubation time was 17 days (range: 3-21). Rhodnius prolixus domiciliary infestation index was 3.3 % and 2.2% in the peridomicile. In the five restaurants inspected sanitary conditions were deficient and food samples were microbiologically non-conforming. We found a dog and two opossums positive for IgG antibodies by ELISA. Environmental, sanitary and epidemiological conditions at the place confirmed an outbreak of Chagas diseases related to occupational exposure, possibly by oral transmission, which may be the largest to date in Colombia.

  16. High resolution transmission spectroscopy as a diagnostic for Jovian exoplanet atmospheres: constraints from theoretical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kempton, Eliza M.-R. [Department of Physics, Grinnell College, Grinnell, IA 50112 (United States); Perna, Rosalba [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794 (United States); Heng, Kevin, E-mail: kemptone@grinnell.edu [University of Bern, Center for Space and Habitability, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2014-11-01

    We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model Jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9-55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple one-dimensional (1D) models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blueshifts of up to 3 km s{sup –1}, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. We find only minor differences between transmission spectra for atmospheres with temperature inversions and those without. Compared to 1D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption

  17. Foot-and-mouth Disease Transmission in Africa: Implications for Control, a Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekleghiorghis, T; Moormann, R J M; Weerdmeester, K; Dekker, A

    2016-04-01

    In Africa, for the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), more information is needed on the spread of the disease at local, regional and inter-regional level. The aim of this review is to identify the role that animal husbandry, trade and wildlife have on the transmission of FMD and to provide a scientific basis for different FMD control measures in Africa. Review of literature, published reports and databases shows that there is more long distance spread of FMD virus serotypes within North, West, Central and East Africa than in southern Africa. In North, West, Central and East Africa migratory animal husbandry systems often related with search for grazing and water as well as trade are practiced to a greater extent than in southern Africa. In southern Africa, the role of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is more extensively studied than in the other parts of Africa, but based on the densities of African buffalo in Central and East Africa, one would assume that buffalo should also play a role in the epidemiology of FMD in this part of Africa. More sampling of buffalo is necessary in West, Central and East Africa. The genetic analysis of virus strains has proven to be valuable to increase our understanding in the spread of FMD in Africa. This review shows that there is a difference in FMD occurrence between southern Africa and the rest of the continent; this distinction is most likely based on differences in animal husbandry and trade systems. Insufficient data on FMD in wildlife outside southern Africa is limiting our understanding on the role wildlife plays in the transmission of FMD in the other buffalo inhabited areas of Africa. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2015-03-11

    Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

  19. Familial transmission of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in adoptees: a Swedish nationwide family study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zöller, Bengt; Li, Xinjun; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2015-04-13

    Familial clustering of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is well established, but the familial risk of COPD has not been determined among adoptees. The aim was to determine whether the familial transmission of COPD is related to disease in biological and/or adoptive parents. Historic cohort study. 80,214 (50% females). The Swedish Multi-Generation Register was used to follow all Swedish-born adoptees born in 1932-2004 (n=80,214) between 1 January 1964 and 31 December 2010 for COPD (n=1978). The risk of COPD was estimated in adoptees with at least one biological parent with COPD but no adoptive parent with COPD (n=162) compared with adoptees without a biological or adoptive parent with COPD. The risk of COPD was also determined in adoptees with at least one adoptive parent but no biological parent with COPD (n=110), and in adoptees with both affected biological and adoptive parents (n=162). COPD in adoptees. Adoptees with COPD in at least one biological parent but no adoptive parent were more likely to have COPD than adoptees without a biological or adoptive parent with COPD (standardised incidence ratio, SIR=1.98 (95% CI 1.69 to 2.31)). The familial SIR for adoptees with both a biological parent and an adoptive parent with COPD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.39 to 2.00). Adoptees with at least one adoptive parent with COPD but no biological parent with COPD were not at an increased risk of COPD (SIR=1.12 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.35)). The findings of the study show that the familial transmission of COPD is associated with COPD in biological but not adoptive parents, suggesting that genetic or early life factors are important in the familial transmission of COPD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Distantiae transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi: a new epidemiological feature of acute Chagas disease in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samanta Cristina das Chagas Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The new epidemiological scenario of orally transmitted Chagas disease that has emerged in Brazil, and mainly in the Amazon region, needs to be addressed with a new and systematic focus. Belém, the capital of Pará state, reports the highest number of acute Chagas disease (ACD cases associated with the consumption of açaí juice. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The wild and domestic enzootic transmission cycles of Trypanosoma cruzi were evaluated in the two locations (Jurunas and Val-de Cães that report the majority of the autochthonous cases of ACD in Belém city. Moreover, we evaluated the enzootic cycle on the three islands that provide most of the açaí fruit that is consumed in these localities. We employed parasitological and serological tests throughout to evaluate infectivity competence and exposure to T. cruzi. In Val-de-Cães, no wild mammal presented positive parasitological tests, and 56% seroprevalence was observed, with low serological titers. Three of 14 triatomines were found to be infected (TcI. This unexpected epidemiological picture does not explain the high number of autochthonous ACD cases. In Jurunas, the cases of ACD could not be autochthonous because of the absence of any enzootic cycle of T. cruzi. In contrast, in the 3 island areas from which the açaí fruit originates, 66.7% of wild mammals and two dogs displayed positive hemocultures, and 15.6% of triatomines were found to be infected by T. cruzi. Genotyping by mini-exon gene and PCR-RFLP (1f8/Akw21I targeting revealed that the mammals and triatomines from the islands harbored TcI and Trypanosoma rangeli in single and mixed infections. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings show that cases of Chagas disease in the urban area of Belém may be derived from infected triatomines coming together with the açaí fruits from distant islands. We term this new epidemiological feature of Chagas disease as "Distantiae transmission".

  1. Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: the case of SARS in Hong Kong.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Cori

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (+/-0.3 days. The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings.

  2. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin

    2018-01-01

    While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation–either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995–2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting

  3. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hester Korthals Altes

    Full Text Available While tuberculosis (TB represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI. Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers: Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that

  4. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korthals Altes, Hester; Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin

    2018-01-01

    While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting

  5. Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faye, Ousmane; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Heleze, Emmanuel; Faye, Oumar; Loucoubar, Cheikh; Magassouba, N'Faly; Soropogui, Barré; Keita, Sakoba; Gakou, Tata; Bah, El Hadji Ibrahima; Koivogui, Lamine; Sall, Amadou Alpha; Cauchemez, Simon

    2015-03-01

    An epidemic of Ebola virus disease of unprecedented size continues in parts of west Africa. For the first time, large urban centres such as Conakry, the capital of Guinea, are affected. We did an observational study of patients with Ebola virus disease in three regions of Guinea, including Conakry, aiming to map the routes of transmission and assess the effect of interventions. Between Feb 10, 2014, and Aug 25, 2014, we obtained data from the linelist of all confirmed and probable cases in Guinea (as of Sept 16, 2014), a laboratory database of information about patients, and interviews with patients and their families and neighbours. With this information, we mapped chains of transmission, identified which setting infections most probably originated from (community, hospitals, or funerals), and computed the context-specific and overall reproduction numbers. Of 193 confirmed and probable cases of Ebola virus disease reported in Conakry, Boffa, and Télimélé, 152 (79%) were positioned in chains of transmission. Health-care workers contributed little to transmission. In March, 2014, individuals with Ebola virus disease who were not health-care workers infected a mean of 2·3 people (95% CI 1·6-3·2): 1·4 (0·9-2·2) in the community, 0·4 (0·1-0·9) in hospitals, and 0·5 (0·2-1·0) at funerals. After the implementation of infection control in April, the reproduction number in hospitals and at funerals reduced to lower than 0·1. In the community, the reproduction number dropped by 50% for patients that were admitted to hospital, but remained unchanged for those that were not. In March, hospital transmissions constituted 35% (seven of 20) of all transmissions and funeral transmissions constituted 15% (three); but from April to the end of the study period, they constituted only 9% (11 of 128) and 4% (five), respectively. 82% (119 of 145) of transmission occurred in the community and 72% (105) between family members. Our simulations show that a 10% increase in

  6. A Transmission-Cost-Based Model to Estimate the Amount of Market-Integrable Wind Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    are made to share the expenses in transmission derived from their integration, they may see the doors of electricity markets closed for not being competitive enough. This paper presents a model to decide the amount of wind resources that are economically exploitable at a given location from a transmission......In the pursuit of the large-scale integration of wind power production, it is imperative to evaluate plausible frictions among the stochastic nature of wind generation, electricity markets, and the investments in transmission required to accommodate larger amounts of wind. If wind producers......-cost perspective. This model accounts for the uncertain character of wind by using a modeling framework based on stochastic optimization, simulates market barriers by means of a bi-level structure, and considers the financial risk of investments in transmission through the conditional value-at-risk. The major...

  7. Malaria's Missing Number: Calculating the Human Component of R0 by a Within-Host Mechanistic Model of Plasmodium falciparum Infection and Transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, Geoffrey L.; Smith, David L.; Fidock, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Human infection by malarial parasites of the genus Plasmodium begins with the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Current estimates place malaria mortality at over 650,000 individuals each year, mostly in African children. Efforts to reduce disease burden can benefit from the development of mathematical models of disease transmission. To date, however, comprehensive modeling of the parameters defining human infectivity to mosquitoes has remained elusive. Here, we describe a mechanistic wi...

  8. Transmission Risks of Schistosomiasis Japonica: Extraction from Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun-Fang; Xu, Jing; Li, Shi-Zhu; Jia, Tia-Wu; Huang, Xi-Bao; Zhang, Hua-Ming; Chen, Mei; Yang, Guo-Jing; Gao, Shu-Jing; Wang, Qing-Yun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2013-01-01

    Background The transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in a local setting is still poorly understood in the lake regions of the People's Republic of China (P. R. China), and its transmission patterns are closely related to human, social and economic factors. Methodology/Principal Findings We aimed to apply the integrated approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression model in assessment of transmission risks of Schistosoma japonicum with epidemiological data collected from 2339 villagers from 1247 households in six villages of Jiangling County, P.R. China. By using the back-propagation (BP) of the ANN model, 16 factors out of 27 factors were screened, and the top five factors ranked by the absolute value of mean impact value (MIV) were mainly related to human behavior, i.e. integration of water contact history and infection history, family with past infection, history of water contact, infection history, and infection times. The top five factors screened by the logistic regression model were mainly related to the social economics, i.e. village level, economic conditions of family, age group, education level, and infection times. The risk of human infection with S. japonicum is higher in the population who are at age 15 or younger, or with lower education, or with the higher infection rate of the village, or with poor family, and in the population with more than one time to be infected. Conclusion/Significance Both BP artificial neural network and logistic regression model established in a small scale suggested that individual behavior and socioeconomic status are the most important risk factors in the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica. It was reviewed that the young population (≤15) in higher-risk areas was the main target to be intervened for the disease transmission control. PMID:23556015

  9. Parathyroid diseases and animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imanishi, Yasuo; Nagata, Yuki; Inaba, Masaaki

    2012-01-01

    CIRCULATING CALCIUM AND PHOSPHATE ARE TIGHTLY REGULATED BY THREE HORMONES: the active form of vitamin D (1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D), fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23, and parathyroid hormone (PTH). PTH acts to stimulate a rapid increment in serum calcium and has a crucial role in calcium homeostasis. Major target organs of PTH are kidney and bone. The oversecretion of the hormone results in hypercalcemia, caused by increased intestinal calcium absorption, reduced renal calcium clearance, and mobilization of calcium from bone in primary hyperparathyroidism. In chronic kidney disease, secondary hyperparathyroidism of uremia is observed in its early stages, and this finally develops into the autonomous secretion of PTH during maintenance hemodialysis. Receptors in parathyroid cells, such as the calcium-sensing receptor, vitamin D receptor, and FGF receptor (FGFR)-Klotho complex have crucial roles in the regulation of PTH secretion. Genes such as Cyclin D1, RET, MEN1, HRPT2, and CDKN1B have been identified in parathyroid diseases. Genetically engineered animals with these receptors and the associated genes have provided us with valuable information on the patho-physiology of parathyroid diseases. The application of these animal models is significant for the development of new therapies.

  10. Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis: A comprehensive and integrative multi-modeling approach to disease prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erraguntla, Madhav; Zapletal, Josef; Lawley, Mark

    2017-12-01

    The impact of infectious disease on human populations is a function of many factors including environmental conditions, vector dynamics, transmission mechanics, social and cultural behaviors, and public policy. A comprehensive framework for disease management must fully connect the complete disease lifecycle, including emergence from reservoir populations, zoonotic vector transmission, and impact on human societies. The Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis is a software environment and conceptual architecture for data integration, situational awareness, visualization, prediction, and intervention assessment. Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis automatically collects biosurveillance data using natural language processing, integrates structured and unstructured data from multiple sources, applies advanced machine learning, and uses multi-modeling for analyzing disease dynamics and testing interventions in complex, heterogeneous populations. In the illustrative case studies, natural language processing from social media, news feeds, and websites was used for information extraction, biosurveillance, and situation awareness. Classification machine learning algorithms (support vector machines, random forests, and boosting) were used for disease predictions.

  11. Constant Transmission Properties of Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease in 5 Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diack, Abigail B.; Ritchie, Diane; Bishop, Matthew; Pinion, Victoria; Brandel, Jean-Philippe; Haik, Stephane; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Van Duijn, Cornelia; Belay, Ermias D.; Gambetti, Pierluigi; Schonberger, Lawrence B.; Piccardo, Pedro; Will, Robert G.

    2012-01-01

    Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been reported in 12 countries. We hypothesized that a common strain of agent is responsible for all vCJD cases, regardless of geographic origin. To test this hypothesis, we inoculated strain-typing panels of wild-type mice with brain material from human vCJD case-patients from France, the Netherlands, Italy, and the United States. Mice were assessed for clinical disease, neuropathologic changes, and glycoform profile; results were compared with those for 2 reference vCJD cases from the United Kingdom. Transmission to mice occurred from each sample tested, and data were similar between non-UK and UK cases, with the exception of the ranking of mean clinical incubation times of mouse lines. These findings support the hypothesis that a single strain of infectious agent is responsible for all vCJD infections. However, differences in incubation times require further subpassage in mice to establish any true differences in strain properties between cases. PMID:23017202

  12. Optical modeling of fiber organic photovoltaic structures using a transmission line method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonas, N; Stathopoulos, N A; O'Connor, B T; Bedeloglu, A Celik; Savaidis, S P; Vasiliadis, S

    2017-12-01

    An optical model has been developed and evaluated for the calculation of the external quantum efficiency of cylindrical fiber photovoltaic structures. The model is based on the transmission line theory and has been applied on single and bulk heterojunction fiber-photovoltaic cells. Using this model, optimum design characteristics have been proposed for both configurations, and comparison with experimental results has been assessed.

  13. Supplementation with Abscisic Acid Reduces Malaria Disease Severity and Parasite Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glennon, Elizabeth K. K.; Adams, L. Garry; Hicks, Derrick R.; Dehesh, Katayoon; Luckhart, Shirley

    2016-01-01

    Nearly half of the world's population is at risk for malaria. Increasing drug resistance has intensified the need for novel therapeutics, including treatments with intrinsic transmission-blocking properties. In this study, we demonstrate that the isoprenoid abscisic acid (ABA) modulates signaling in the mammalian host to reduce parasitemia and the formation of transmissible gametocytes and in the mosquito host to reduce parasite infection. Oral ABA supplementation in a mouse model of malaria was well tolerated and led to reduced pathology and enhanced gene expression in the liver and spleen consistent with infection recovery. Oral ABA supplementation also increased mouse plasma ABA to levels that can signal in the mosquito midgut upon blood ingestion. Accordingly, we showed that supplementation of a Plasmodium falciparum-infected blood meal with ABA increased expression of mosquito nitric oxide synthase and reduced infection prevalence in a nitric oxide-dependent manner. Identification of the mechanisms whereby ABA reduces parasite growth in mammals and mosquitoes could shed light on the balance of immunity and metabolism across eukaryotes and provide a strong foundation for clinical translation. PMID:27001761

  14. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

    2003-11-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

  15. Transmission-line-circuit model of an 85-TW, 25-MA pulsed-power accelerator

    OpenAIRE

    B. T. Hutsel; P. A. Corcoran; M. E. Cuneo; M. R. Gomez; M. H. Hess; D. D. Hinshelwood; C. A. Jennings; G. R. Laity; D. C. Lamppa; R. D. McBride; J. K. Moore; A. Myers; D. V. Rose; S. A. Slutz; W. A. Stygar

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a physics-based transmission-line-circuit model of the Z pulsed-power accelerator. The 33-m-diameter Z machine generates a peak electrical power as high as 85 TW, and delivers as much as 25 MA to a physics load. The circuit model is used to design and analyze experiments conducted on Z. The model consists of 36 networks of transmission-line-circuit elements and resistors that represent each of Zs 36 modules. The model of each module includes a Marx generator, intermediate-en...

  16. Intersubjective model of value transmission: parents using perceived norms as reference when socializing children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Kim-Pong; Lee, Sau-Lai; Kim, Young-Hoon; Li, Yanmei; Chao, Melody Manchi

    2012-08-01

    What values do parents want to transmit to children? The intersubjective model of value transmission posits that parents want to transmit not only the values they personally endorse but also the values they perceive to be normatively important in the society. The present research shows support to this premise. Furthermore, Studies 1 and 2 revealed that the use of perceived norms is moderated by families' social contexts and parents' personality: It was particularly pronounced among parents who were immigrants, who had a stronger need for closure, and who were more conforming. In addition, Studies 3 and 4 demonstrated that parents' perceived norms can explain actual value transmission: Values parents perceived to be normatively important were to some extent internalized by children. The intersubjective model paves some new directions for value transmission research, contributes to the understanding of cultural transmission and cultural change, and extends the intersubjective approach to culture.

  17. The Sociospatial Network: Risk and the Role of Place in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Logan

    Full Text Available Control of sexually transmitted infections and blood-borne pathogens is challenging due to their presence in groups exhibiting complex social interactions. In particular, sharing injection drug use equipment and selling sex (prostitution puts people at high risk. Previous work examining the involvement of risk behaviours in social networks has suggested that social and geographic distance of persons within a group contributes to these pathogens' endemicity. In this study, we examine the role of place in the connectedness of street people, selected by respondent driven sampling, in the transmission of blood-borne and sexually transmitted pathogens. A sample of 600 injection drug users, men who have sex with men, street youth and homeless people were recruited in Winnipeg, Canada from January to December, 2009. The residences of participants and those of their social connections were linked to each other and to locations where they engaged in risk activity. Survey responses identified 101 unique sites where respondents participated in injection drug use or sex transactions. Risk sites and respondents' residences were geocoded, with residence representing the individuals. The sociospatial network and estimations of geographic areas most likely to be frequented were mapped with network graphs and spatially using a Geographic Information System (GIS. The network with the most nodes connected 7.7% of respondents; consideration of the sociospatial network increased this to 49.7%. The mean distance between any two locations in the network was within 3.5 kilometres. Kernel density estimation revealed key activity spaces where the five largest networks overlapped. Here, the combination of spatial and social entities in network analysis defines the overlap of vulnerable populations in risk space, over and above the person to person links. Implications of this work are far reaching, not just for understanding transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted

  18. Vertically acquired hepatitis C virus infection: Correlates of transmission and disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovo, Pier-Angelo; Calitri, Carmelina; Scolfaro, Carlo; Gabiano, Clara; Garazzino, Silvia

    2016-01-28

    The worldwide prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in children is 0.05%-0.4% in developed countries and 2%-5% in resource-limited settings, where inadequately tested blood products or un-sterile medical injections still remain important routes of infection. After the screening of blood donors, mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HCV has become the leading cause of pediatric infection, at a rate of 5%. Maternal HIV co-infection is a significant risk factor for MTCT and anti-HIV therapy during pregnancy seemingly can reduce the transmission rate of both viruses. Conversely, a high maternal viral load is an important, but not preventable risk factor, because at present no anti-HCV treatment can be administered to pregnant women to block viral replication. Caution is needed in adopting obstetric procedures, such as amniocentesis or internal fetal monitoring, that can favor fetal exposure to HCV contaminated maternal blood, though evidence is lacking on the real risk of single obstetric practices. Mode of delivery and type of feeding do not represent significant risk factors for MTCT. Therefore, there is no reason to offer elective caesarean section or discourage breast-feeding to HCV infected parturients. Information on the natural history of vertical HCV infection is limited. The primary infection is asymptomatic in infants. At least one quarter of infected children shows a spontaneous viral clearance (SVC) that usually occurs within 6 years of life. IL-28B polymorphims and genotype 3 infection have been associated with greater chances of SVC. In general, HCV progression is mild or moderate in children with chronic infection who grow regularly, though cases with marked liver fibrosis or hepatic failure have been described. Non-organ specific autoantibodies and cryoglobulins are frequently found in children with chronic infection, but autoimmune diseases or HCV associated extrahepatic manifestations are rare.

  19. Maternal transmission of Alzheimer's disease: Prodromal metabolic phenotype and the search for genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mosconi Lisa

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract After advanced age, having a parent affected with Alzheimer's disease (AD is the most significant risk factor for developing AD among cognitively normal (NL individuals. Although rare genetic mutations have been identified among the early-onset forms of familial AD (EOFAD, the genetics of the more common forms of late-onset AD (LOAD remain elusive. While some LOAD cases appear to be sporadic in nature, genetically mediated risk is evident from the familial aggregation of many LOAD cases. The patterns of transmission and biological mechanisms through which a family history of LOAD confers risk to the offspring are not known. Brain imaging studies using 2-[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG PET have shown that NL individuals with a maternal history of LOAD, but not with a paternal family history, express a phenotype characterised by a pattern of progressive reductions of brain glucose metabolism, similar to that in AD patients. As maternally inherited AD may be associated with as many as 20 per cent of the total LOAD population, understanding the causes and mechanisms of expression of this form of AD is of great relevance. This paper reviews known genetic mutations implicated in EOFAD and their effects on brain chemistry, structure and function; epidemiology and clinical research findings in LOAD, including in vivo imaging findings showing selective patterns of hypometabolism in maternally inherited AD; possible genetic mechanisms involved in maternal transmission of AD, including chromosome X mutations, mitochondrial DNA and imprinting; and genetic mechanisms involved in other neurological disorders with known or suspected maternal inheritance. The review concludes with a discussion of the potential role of brain imaging for identifying endophenotypes in NL individuals at risk for AD, and for directing investigation of potential susceptibility genes for AD.

  20. The Sociospatial Network: Risk and the Role of Place in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, James J; Jolly, Ann M; Blanford, Justine I

    2016-01-01

    Control of sexually transmitted infections and blood-borne pathogens is challenging due to their presence in groups exhibiting complex social interactions. In particular, sharing injection drug use equipment and selling sex (prostitution) puts people at high risk. Previous work examining the involvement of risk behaviours in social networks has suggested that social and geographic distance of persons within a group contributes to these pathogens' endemicity. In this study, we examine the role of place in the connectedness of street people, selected by respondent driven sampling, in the transmission of blood-borne and sexually transmitted pathogens. A sample of 600 injection drug users, men who have sex with men, street youth and homeless people were recruited in Winnipeg, Canada from January to December, 2009. The residences of participants and those of their social connections were linked to each other and to locations where they engaged in risk activity. Survey responses identified 101 unique sites where respondents participated in injection drug use or sex transactions. Risk sites and respondents' residences were geocoded, with residence representing the individuals. The sociospatial network and estimations of geographic areas most likely to be frequented were mapped with network graphs and spatially using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The network with the most nodes connected 7.7% of respondents; consideration of the sociospatial network increased this to 49.7%. The mean distance between any two locations in the network was within 3.5 kilometres. Kernel density estimation revealed key activity spaces where the five largest networks overlapped. Here, the combination of spatial and social entities in network analysis defines the overlap of vulnerable populations in risk space, over and above the person to person links. Implications of this work are far reaching, not just for understanding transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted infections by

  1. A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun M Yang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

  2. SimWIND: A geospatial infrastructure model for optimizing wind power generation and transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, Benjamin R.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2012-01-01

    Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with the capacity to satisfy 20% or more of U.S. electricity demand. Presently, wind potential is limited by a paucity of electrical transmission lines and/or capacity between promising wind resources and primary load centers. We present the model SimWIND to address this shortfall. SimWIND is an integrated optimization model for the geospatial arrangement and cost minimization of wind-power generation–transmission–delivery infrastructure. Given a set of possible wind-farm sites, the model simultaneously determines (1) where and how much power to generate and (2) where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity in order to minimize the cost for delivering a targeted amount of power to load. Costs and routing of transmission lines consider geographic and social constraints as well as electricity losses. We apply our model to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Interconnection, considering scenarios that deliver up to 20 GW of new wind power. We show that SimWIND could potentially reduce ERCOT's projected ∼$5B transmission network upgrade line length and associated costs by 50%. These results suggest that SimWIND's coupled generation–transmission–delivery modeling approach could play a critical role in enhancing planning efforts and reducing costs for wind energy integration. - Highlights: ► Wind power is limited by transmission capacity between resources and demands. ► SimWIND is a coupled generation-transmission-delivery model for wind infrastructure. ► The model minimizes costs considering realistic transmission routing and networking. ► We show that SimWIND could save 50% of $5B costs for expanding the Texas grid. ► Results suggest SimWIND may play a critical role in enhancings wind planning efforts.

  3. Computer models for fading channels with applications to digital transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loo, Chun; Secord, Norman

    1991-11-01

    The authors describe computer models for Rayleigh, Rician, log-normal, and land-mobile-satellite fading channels. All computer models for the fading channels are based on the manipulation of a white Gaussian random process. This process is approximated by a sum of sinusoids with random phase angle. These models compare very well with analytical models in terms of their probability distribution of envelope and phase of the fading signal. For the land mobile satellite fading channel, results of level crossing rate and average fade duration are given. These results show that the computer models can provide a good coarse estimate of the time statistic of the faded signal. Also, for the land-mobile-satellite fading channel, the results show that a 3-pole Butterworth shaping filter should be used with the model. An example of the application of the land-mobile-satellite fading-channel model to predict the performance of a differential phase-shift keying signal is described.

  4. Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bansal, Shweta; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone

    2016-01-01

    We devote a special issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases to review the recent advances of big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments and mobility. We consider a broad definition of big data...... issue and highlight several cross-cutting areas that require further research, including representativeness, biases, volatility, and validation, and the need for robust statistical and hypotheses-driven analyses. Overall, we are optimistic that the big-data revolution will vastly improve the granularity...

  5. Disease-associated prion protein in neural and lymphoid tissues of mink (Mustela vison) inoculated with transmissible mink encephalopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D A; Harrington, R D; Zhuang, D; Yan, H; Truscott, T C; Dassanayake, R P; O'Rourke, K I

    2012-11-01

    Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are diagnosed by immunodetection of disease-associated prion protein (PrP(d)). The distribution of PrP(d) within the body varies with the time-course of infection and between species, during interspecies transmission, as well as with prion strain. Mink are susceptible to a form of TSE known as transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME), presumed to arise due to consumption of feed contaminated with a single prion strain of ruminant origin. After extended passage of TME isolates in hamsters, two strains emerge, HY and DY, each of which is associated with unique structural isoforms of PrP(TME) and of which only the HY strain is associated with accumulation of PrP(TME) in lymphoid tissues. Information on the structural nature and lymphoid accumulation of PrP(TME) in mink is limited. In this study, 13 mink were challenged by intracerebral inoculation using late passage TME inoculum, after which brain and lymphoid tissues were collected at preclinical and clinical time points. The distribution and molecular nature of PrP(TME) was investigated by techniques including blotting of paraffin wax-embedded tissue and epitope mapping by western blotting. PrP(TME) was detected readily in the brain and retropharyngeal lymph node during preclinical infection, with delayed progression of accumulation within other lymphoid tissues. For comparison, three mink were inoculated by the oral route and examined during clinical disease. Accumulation of PrP(TME) in these mink was greater and more widespread, including follicles of rectoanal mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue. Western blot analyses revealed that PrP(TME) accumulating in the brain of mink is structurally most similar to that accumulating in the brain of hamsters infected with the DY strain. Collectively, the results of extended passage in mink are consistent with the presence of only a single strain of TME, the DY strain, capable of inducing accumulation of PrP(TME) in the lymphoid

  6. A transparency model and its applications for simulation of reflector arrays and sound transmission (A)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus Lynge; Rindel, Jens Holger

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes a new method for simulating the frequency-dependent reflection and transmission of reflector arrays, and the frequency-dependent airborne sound insulation between rooms by means of a room acoustic computer model. The method makes use of a transparency method in the ray...... of the partition, and this is useful for the auralization of sound transmission through different building constructions. The acoustic properties like volume, reverberation time, and the area of the transmitting surfaces are included in the simulation....

  7. A Computational Model to Investigate Astrocytic Glutamate Uptake Influence on Synaptic Transmission and Neuronal Spiking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushmita Lakshmi Allam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, our view of astrocytes has switched from passive support cells to active processing elements in the brain. The current view is that astrocytes shape neuronal communication and also play an important role in many neurodegenerative diseases. Despite the growing awareness of the importance of astrocytes, the exact mechanisms underlying neuron-astrocyte communication and the physiological consequences of astrocytic-neuronal interactions remain largely unclear. In this work, we define a modeling framework that will permit to address unanswered questions regarding the role of astrocytes. Our computational model of a detailed glutamatergic synapse facilitates the analysis of neural system responses to various stimuli and conditions that are otherwise difficult to obtain experimentally, in particular the readouts at the sub-cellular level. In this paper, we extend a detailed glutamatergic synaptic model, to include astrocytic glutamate transporters. We demonstrate how these glial transporters, responsible for the majority of glutamate uptake, modulate synaptic transmission mediated by ionotropic AMPA and NMDA receptors at glutamatergic synapses. Furthermore, we investigate how these local signaling effects at the synaptic level are translated into varying spatio-temporal patterns of neuron firing. Paired pulse stimulation results reveal that the effect of astrocytic glutamate uptake is more apparent when the input inter-spike interval is sufficiently long to allow the receptors to recover from desensitization. These results suggest an important functional role of astrocytes in spike timing dependent processes and demand further investigation of the molecular basis of certain neurological diseases specifically related to alterations in astrocytic glutamate uptake, such as epilepsy.

  8. Influence of landscape factors and management decisions on spatial and temporal patterns of the transmission of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn O’Hara Ruiz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD has been reported in white-tailed deer at the border of the US states of Illinois and Wisconsin since 2002. Transmission of infectious prions between animals and from the environment has resulted in spatial and temporal structure observable in the spatio-temporal patterns of reported cases. Case locations of 382 positive cases from 28,954 deer tested between 2002 and 2009 provided insight into the potential risk factors and landscape features associated with transmission using a combination of clustering, generalised linear modelling and descriptive evaluations of a risk map of predicted cases of CWD. A species distribution map of white-tailed deer developed using MaxEnt provided an estimate of deer locations. We found that deer probability increased in areas with larger forests and less urban and agricultural lands. Spatial clustering analysis revealed a core area of persistent CWD transmission in the northern part of the region. The regression model indicated that larger and more compact forests were associated with higher risk for CWD. High risk areas also had soils with less clay and more sand than other parts of the region. The transmission potential was higher where landscape features indicated the potential for higher deer concentrations. The inclusion of spatial lag variables improved the model. Of the 102 cases reported in the study area in the two years following the study period, 89 (87% of those were in the 32% of the study area with the highest 50% of predicted risk of cases.

  9. Heterogeneity in District-Level Transmission of Ebola Virus Disease during the 2013-2015 Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabienne Krauer

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in West Africa in 2013-2015 spread heterogeneously across the three hardest-hit countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and the estimation of national transmission of EVD provides little information about local dynamics. To investigate district-level transmissibility of EVD, we applied a statistical modelling approach to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0 for each affected district and each country using weekly incident case numbers. We estimated growth rates during the early exponential phase of the outbreak using exponential regression of the case counts on the first eight weeks since onset. To take into account the heterogeneity between and within countries, we fitted a mixed effects model and calculated R0 based on the predicted individual growth rates and the reported serial interval distribution. At district level, R0 ranged from 0.36 (Dubréka to 1.72 (Beyla in Guinea, from 0.53 (Maryland to 3.37 (Margibi in Liberia and from 1.14 (Koinadugu to 2.73 (Western Rural in Sierra Leone. At national level, we estimated an R0 of 0.97 (95% CI 0.77-1.18 for Guinea, 1.26 (95% CI 0.98-1.55 for Liberia and 1.66 (95% CI 1.32-2.00 for Sierra Leone. Socio-demographic variables related to urbanisation such as high population density and high wealth index were found positively associated with R0 suggesting that the consequences of fast urban growth in West Africa may have contributed to the increased spread of EVD.

  10. armax, oe and ssif model predictors for power transmission

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vincent

    collected for thirteen different parameters that influences the evaluation and analysis in the case study area. ... regression model for short term load prediction while Haida and Muto ...... The OE is a special stochastic case which is achieved by.

  11. CRLH Transmission Lines for Telecommunications: Fast and Effective Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A different parameter extraction approach based on zero immittances for composite right/left-handed (CRLH structure is presented. For lossless unit cell equivalent circuit model, LC parameters of series and parallel branches are extracted according to series resonance frequency and parallel resonance frequency, respectively. This approach can be applied to symmetric and unbalanced CRLH structures. The parameter extraction procedure is provided and validated by T-type unit cell model. The responses of distributed prototype and extracted equivalent LC circuit model are in good agreement. The equivalent circuit modeling can improve the degree of freedom in the CRLH TLs design. This parameter extraction method provides an effective and straightforward way in CRLH metamaterials design and applications in telecommunication systems.

  12. Modelling the physics in iterative reconstruction for transmission computed tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuyts, Johan; De Man, Bruno; Fessler, Jeffrey A.; Zbijewski, Wojciech; Beekman, Freek J.

    2013-01-01

    There is an increasing interest in iterative reconstruction (IR) as a key tool to improve quality and increase applicability of X-ray CT imaging. IR has the ability to significantly reduce patient dose, it provides the flexibility to reconstruct images from arbitrary X-ray system geometries and it allows to include detailed models of photon transport and detection physics, to accurately correct for a wide variety of image degrading effects. This paper reviews discretisation issues and modelling of finite spatial resolution, Compton scatter in the scanned object, data noise and the energy spectrum. Widespread implementation of IR with highly accurate model-based correction, however, still requires significant effort. In addition, new hardware will provide new opportunities and challenges to improve CT with new modelling. PMID:23739261

  13. Grid Transmission Expansion Planning Model Based on Grid Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Quan; Wang, Xi; Li, Ting; Zhang, Quanming; Zhang, Hongli; Li, Huaqiang

    2018-03-01

    Based on grid vulnerability and uniformity theory, proposed global network structure and state vulnerability factor model used to measure different grid models. established a multi-objective power grid planning model which considering the global power network vulnerability, economy and grid security constraint. Using improved chaos crossover and mutation genetic algorithm to optimize the optimal plan. For the problem of multi-objective optimization, dimension is not uniform, the weight is not easy given. Using principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensive assessment of the population every generation, make the results more objective and credible assessment. the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by simulation results of Garver-6 bus system and Garver-18 bus.

  14. Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul C.; Maichak, Eric J.; Rogerson, Jared D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Jones, Jennifer D; Heisey, Dennis M.; Edwards, William H.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the

  15. Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Peter

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918. Methods Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution. Results Basic reproduction number (R0 values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population. Conclusion These R0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.

  16. An SIS model for cultural trait transmission with conformity bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Caroline E; Kendal, Jeremy R

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models have been applied to human health-related behaviors that are affected by social interaction. Typically these models have not considered conformity bias, that is, the exaggerated propensity to adopt commonly observed behaviors or opinions, or content biases, where the content of the learned trait affects the probability of adoption. Here we consider an interaction of these two effects, presenting an SIS-type model for the spread and persistence of a behavior which is transmitted via social learning. Uptake is controlled by a nonlinear dependence on the proportion of individuals demonstrating the behavior in a population. Three equilibrium solutions are found, their linear stability is analyzed and the results are compared with a model for unbiased social learning. Our analysis focuses on the effects of the strength of conformity bias and the effects of content biases which alter a conformity threshold frequency of the behavior, above which there is an exaggerated propensity for adoption. The strength of the conformity bias is found to qualitatively alter the predictions regarding whether the trait becomes endemic within the population and the proportion of individuals who display the trait when it is endemic. As the conformity strength increases, the number of feasible equilibrium solutions increases from two to three, leading to a situation where the stable equilibrium attained is dependent upon the initial state. Varying the conformity threshold frequency directionally alters the behavior invasion threshold. Finally we discuss the possible application of this model to binge drinking behavior. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Quattrochi, Dale; Crosson, William; Hayden, Mary; Ernst, Kacey

    2015-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US-Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

  18. Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    INVITED ARTICLE James M. Hughes and Mary E. Wilson, Section Editors Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical...for risk mitigation. Few data on the epidemiology of infectious diseases occurring among traveling health care workers (HCWs) exist. Surveillance... Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b

  19. Mannose-binding Lectin and the Risk of HIV Transmission and Disease Progression in Children A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Israëls, Joël; Scherpbier, Henriette J.; Frakking, Florine N. J.; van de Wetering, Marianne D.; Kremer, Leontien C. M.; Kuijpers, Taco W.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) can activate the complement system by binding to carbohydrates, such as those presented on the HIV virion surface. It is unclear whether genetically determined MBL deficiency is related to vertical HIV transmission and disease progression in HIV-infected

  20. Glia and extracellular matrix changes affect extracellular diffusion and volume transmission in the brain in health and disease

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vargová, Lýdia; Syková, Eva

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, S1 (2011), S38 ISSN 0894-1491. [European meeting on Glia l Cells in Health and Disease /10./. 13.09.2011-17.09.2011, Prague] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390512; CEZ:AV0Z50390703 Keywords : diffusion * extracellular matrix * extrasynaptic transmission Subject RIV: FH - Neurology

  1. Quantification of foot and mouth disease virus excretion and transmission within groups of lambs with and without vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orsel, K.; Dekker, A.; Bouma, A.; Stegeman, J.A.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2007-01-01

    Sheep are well known to be susceptible for foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), but it is unknown whether the infection can spread and persist in a sheep population. We therefore quantified virus transmission by performing experiments with FMD virus strain O/NET/2001 in groups of lambs. We used six

  2. Nosocomial transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: results from a risk-based assessment of surgical interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Pedro-Cuesta, Jesús; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Rábano, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Evidence of surgical transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) remains debatable in part due to misclassification of exposure levels. In a registry-based case-control study, the authors applied a risk-based classification of surgical interventions to determine the association...

  3. Dynamic queuing transmission model for dynamic network loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raovic, Nevena; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2017-01-01

    and allowing for the representation of multiple vehicle classes, queue spillbacks and shock waves. The model assumes that a link is split into a moving part plus a queuing part, and p that traffic dynamics are given by a triangular fundamental diagram. A case-study is investigated and the DQTM is compared...

  4. Prediction model for sound transmission from machinery in buildings: feasible approaches and problems to be solved

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerretsen, E.

    2000-01-01

    Prediction models for the airborne and impact sound transmission in buildings have recently been established (EN 12354- 1&2:1999). However, these models do not cover technical installations and machinery as a source of sound in buildings. Yet these can cause unacceptable sound levels and it is

  5. A simplified mathematical model for scattered transmission of X-rays in raw brown coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braune, M.

    1983-01-01

    A simplified mathematical model is presented which renders it possible to calculate the ash content of lignite from scattered transmission of X radiation taking into account two grain classes, the bulk density, and the fill height. The fine grain is assigned to sand and the coarse one to lignite. The model provides a correlation between the fine grain content and the counting rate

  6. Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggaley, Rebecca F.; Fraser, Christophe

    2010-01-01

    Purpose of review To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact. Recent findings We use mathematical modelling of “universal test and treat” as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission. Summary Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, while complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and thus be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis where assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis. PMID:20543600

  7. Side-coupled cavity model for surface plasmon-polariton transmission across a groove

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J.S.Q.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate that the transmission properties of surface plasmon-polaritons (SPPs) across a rectangular groove in a metallic film can be described by an analytical model that treats the groove as a side-coupled cavity to propagating SPPs on the metal surface. The coupling efficiency to the groove is quantified by treating it as a truncated metal-dielectric-metal (MDM) waveguide. Finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) simulations and mode orthogonality relations are employed to derive the basic scattering coefficients that describe the interaction between the relevant modes in the system. The modeled SPP transmission and reflection intensities show excellent agreement with full-field simulations over a wide range of groove dimensions, validating this intuitive model. The model predicts the sharp transmission minima that occur whenever an incident SPP resonantly couples to the groove. We also for the first time show the importance of evanescent, reactive MDM SPP modes to the transmission behavior. SPPs that couple to this mode are resonantly enhanced upon reflection from the bottom of the groove, leading to high field intensities and sharp transmission minima across the groove. The resonant behavior exhibited by the grooves has a number of important device applications, including SPP mirrors, filters, and modulators.

  8. Switched causual modeling of transmission with clutch in hybrid electric vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    LHOMME, W; TRIGUI, R; DELARU, P; JEANNERET, B; BOUSCAUROL, A; BADIN, F

    2008-01-01

    Certain difficulties arise when attempting to model a clutch in a power train transmission due to its nonlinear behavior. Two different states have to be taken into account-the first being when the clutch is locked and the second being when the clutch is slipping. In this paper, a clutch model is developed using the Energetic Macroscopic Representation, which is, in turn, used in the modeling of complete hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Two different models are used, and a specific condition ...

  9. The AURIC-M Atmospheric Transmission and Radiance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    ZAER , ZNEW, and ZNEWV, and used locally to set the array ZMDL for use elsewhere in the program. 3) The user input data layers for Model 7, which...including the layering. For this reason, the original calculation layer altitudes were kept in place (array ZAER ), and new ones were added in a separate...variable (ZAUR), used only when the AURIC mode is on. The ZAER altitudes vary in 1 km steps from 0 to 25 kin, in 5 km steps up through 50 kin, with

  10. Quantum model of light transmission in array waveguide gratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capmany, J; Mora, J; Fernández-Pousa, C R; Muñoz, P

    2013-06-17

    We develop, to the best of our knowledge, the first model for an array waveguide grating (AWG) device subject to quantum inputs and analyze its basic transformation functionalities for single-photon states. A commercial, cyclic AWG is experimentally characterized with weak input coherent states as a means of exploring its behaviour under realistic quantum detection. In particular it is shown the existence of a cutoff value of the average photon number below which quantum crosstalk between AWG ports is negligible with respect to dark counts. These results can be useful when considering the application of AWG devices to integrated quantum photonic systems.

  11. Organoids: Modelling polycystic kidney disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romagnani, Paola

    2017-11-01

    Cysts were generated from organoids in vitro and the removal of adherent cues was shown to play a key role in polycystic kidney disease progression. These cysts resembled those of diseased tissue phenotypically and were capable of remodelling their microenvironment.

  12. Transmission and Adaptation of Chronic Wasting Disease to Hamsters and Transgenic Mice: Evidence for Strains▿

    OpenAIRE

    Raymond, Gregory J.; Raymond, Lynne D.; Meade-White, Kimberly D.; Hughson, Andrew G.; Favara, Cynthia; Gardner, Donald; Williams, Elizabeth S.; Miller, Michael W.; Race, Richard E.; Caughey, Byron

    2007-01-01

    In vitro screening using the cell-free prion protein conversion system indicated that certain rodents may be susceptible to chronic wasting disease (CWD). Therefore, CWD isolates from mule deer, white-tailed deer, and elk were inoculated intracerebrally into various rodent species to assess the rodents' susceptibility and to develop new rodent models of CWD. The species inoculated were Syrian golden, Djungarian, Chinese, Siberian, and Armenian hamsters, transgenic mice expressing the Syrian g...

  13. Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggo, Rosalind M; Lenczner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers of epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected and loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one community to the next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor of temporal shifts in environmental conditions and human behavior and because of the difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. Objective The aim was to characterize naturally arising patterns of human contact that are capable of producing simulated epidemics with multiple wave structures. Methods We used an extensive dataset of proximal physical contacts between users of a public Wi-Fi Internet system to evaluate the epidemiological implications of an empirical urban contact network. We characterized the modularity (community structure) of the network and then estimated epidemic dynamics under a percolation-based model of infectious disease spread on the network. We classified simulated epidemics as multiwave using a novel metric and we identified network structures that were critical to the network’s ability to produce multiwave epidemics. Results We identified robust community structure in a large, empirical urban contact network from which multiwave epidemics may emerge naturally. This pattern was fueled by a special kind of insularity in which locally popular individuals were not the ones forging contacts with more distant social groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic

  14. A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Fred Brauer

    2017-01-01

    We formulate and analyze an age of infection model for epidemics of diseases transmitted by a vector, including the possibility of direct transmission as well. We show how to determine a basic reproduction number. While there is no explicit final size relation as for diseases transmitted directly, we are able to obtain estimates for the final size of the epidemic.

  15. A Rare Case of Transfusion Transmission of Hepatitis A Virus to Two Patients with Haematological Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Suely Gonçalves Cordeiro; Leon, Luciane Almeida Amado; Alves, Gilda; Brito, Selma Magalhães; Sandes, Valcieny de Souza; Lima, Magda Maria Adorno Ferreira; Nogueira, Marta Colares; Tavares, Rita de Cássia Barbosa da Silva; Dobbin, Jane; Apa, Alexandre; de Paula, Vanessa Salete; Oliveira, Jaqueline Mendes de Oliveira; Pinto, Marcelo Alves; Ferreira, Orlando da Costa; Motta, Iara de Jesus Ferreira

    2016-03-01

    This paper describes the transmission of hepatitis A virus (HAV) to two blood recipients from a healthy donor that later presented to the blood bank with jaundice. The RNA of HAV was detected by qualitative nested reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (nested RT-PCR) and quantified by real-time RT-PCR. HAV RNA samples were genotyped by direct sequencing of PCR products. A sequence from a fragment of 168 bp from the VP1/2A HAV region was used to construct a phylogenetic tree. A 31-year-old male donor accepted for donation of a whole blood unit returned to the blood bank with clinical jaundice 20 days after donation. His serological and NAT tests were negative for HBV and HCV. Serological tests for HAV IgM and IgG were negative on donation sample but positive on follow-up sample, confirming donor's HAV acute infection. Both recipients of red blood cells (R1) and platelet concentrate (R2) from the same implicated donation were HAV IgM-negative and IgG-positive. Qualitative PCR was positive on samples from all three individuals and phylogenetic analysis of viruses proved HAV transmission to the two recipients of blood products. HAV viral load on donor follow-up sample and the platelet recipient was 1.3 and 1.5 × 10(3) IU/ml, respectively. The RBC recipient, also infected by HCV, was undergoing bone marrow transplantation and died from fulminant hepatitis, 26 days after the implicated HAV transfusion. The blood donor, a garbage collector, spontaneously returned to the blood bank when developing jaundice. This highlights the importance of donor education to immediately report to blood banks of any signs and symptoms related to infectious disease developed after blood donation. The fact that one immunocompromised patient with HCV infection died from fulminant hepatitis after receiving a HAV-contaminated platelet transfusion underpins the importance of a HAV vaccination program for these group of patients.

  16. Puffy Skin Disease Is an Emerging Transmissible Condition in Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cano, Irene; Verner-Jeffreys, David W; van Aerle, Ronny; Paley, Richard K; Peeler, Edmund J; Green, Matthew; Rimmer, Georgina S E; Savage, Jacqueline; Joiner, Claire L; Bayley, Amanda E; Mewett, Jason; Hulland, Jonathan; Feist, Stephen W

    2016-01-01

    The transmission of puffy skin disease (PSD) to rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum was tested in the laboratory by conducting co-habitation challenges with puffy skin (PS)-affected fish (Trojans) collected from the field. Two separate challenges were conducted using Trojans sourced from two different sites and diploid (first trial) or triploid (second trial) naïve fish. PSD-specific clinical signs were observed in both groups of naïve fish, with 66% of the fish sampled during the challenges showing signs of varying severity. The first clinical features of PSD were presented as white oval skin patches on one or both flanks 15-21 days post-challenge (dpc). The extent of the lesions ranged from 10 to 90% of the body surface, depending on the severity of the lesion. Both the severity and number of affected fish increased during the challenge. Macroscopically, oedema of the skin and multifocal petechial haemorrhaging were observed towards the end of the trials. Abnormal fish behaviour consisting of "flashing" and excessive mucous production was noted from 15 dpc onwards. Fish with severe PSD lesions also displayed inappetence and associated emaciation. Rodlet cells were observed in 41% of the fresh skin scrapes analysed from the second trial. Histologically epidermal oedema was observed in 31% of the naive fish showing gross pathology, with additional 12% displaying epidermal hyperplasia, mostly observed at the end of the challenge. Other concomitant features of the PSD lesions in challenged fish were epithelial erosion and sloughing, and occasionally mild or focal inflammation. No consistent pathology of internal organs was observed. The parasites Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Ichthyobodo necator were observed in skin samples of a proportion of naïve challenged fish and in Trojans but not in control fish. The presence of these and other known fish pathogens in the skin of PSD-fish was confirmed by high-throughput sequencing analysis. In summary, we have

  17. A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Feitosa

    1993-06-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66, probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11, probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

  18. Safety evaluation of a recombinant myxoma-RHDV virus inducing horizontal transmissible protection against myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, J M; Ramírez, M A; Morales, M; Bárcena, J; Vázquez, B; Espuña, E; Pagès-Manté, A; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2000-09-15

    We have recently developed a transmissible vaccine to immunize rabbits against myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease based on a recombinant myxoma virus (MV) expressing the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) capsid protein [Bárcena et al. Horizontal transmissible protection against myxomatosis and rabbit haemorragic disease using a recombinant myxoma virus. J. Virol. 2000;74:1114-23]. Administration of the recombinant virus protects rabbits against lethal RHDV and MV challenges. Furthermore, the recombinant virus is capable of horizontal spreading promoting protection of contact animals, thus providing the opportunity to immunize wild rabbit populations. However, potential risks must be extensively evaluated before considering its field use. In this study several safety issues concerning the proposed vaccine have been evaluated under laboratory conditions. Results indicated that vaccine administration is safe even at a 100-fold overdose. No undesirable effects were detected upon administration to immunosuppressed or pregnant rabbits. The recombinant virus maintained its attenuated phenotype after 10 passages in vivo.

  19. Modeling transmission parameters of polymer microstructured fibers for applications in FTTH networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gdula, P.; Welikow, K.; Szczepański, P.; Buczyński, R.; Piramidowicz, R.

    2011-10-01

    This paper is focused on selected aspects of designing and modeling of transmission parameters of plastic optical fibers (POFs), considered in the context of their potential applications in optical access networks and, specifically, in Fiber-To- The-Home (FTTH) systems. The survey of state-of-the-art solutions is presented and possibility of improving transmission properties of POFs by microstructurization is discussed on the basis of the first results of numerical modeling. In particular, the microstructured POF was designed supporting propagation of limited number of modes while keeping relatively large mode area and, simultaneously, significantly lowered bending losses.

  20. Solar radiation transmissivity of a single-span greenhouse through measurements on scale models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papadakis, G.; Manolakos, D.; Kyritsis, S.

    1998-01-01

    The solar transmissivity of a single-span greenhouse has been investigated experimentally using a scale model, of dimensions 40 cm width and 80 cm length. The solar transmissivity was measured at 48 positions on the “ground” surface of the scale model using 48 small silicon solar cells. The greenhouse model was positioned horizontally on a specially made goniometric mechanism. In this way, the greenhouse azimuth could be changed so that typical days of the year could be simulated using different combinations of greenhouse azimuth and the position of the sun in the sky. The measured solar transmissivity distribution at the “ground” surface and the average greenhouse solar transmissivity are presented and analysed, for characteristic days of the year, for winter and summer for a latitude of 37°58′ (Athens, Greece). It is shown that for the latitude of 37°58′ N during winter, the E–W orientation is preferable to the N–S one. The side walls, and especially the East and West ones for the E–W orientation, reduce considerably the greenhouse transmissivity at areas close to the walls for long periods of the day when the angle of incidence of the solar rays to these walls is large. (author)

  1. Network flow model of force transmission in unbonded and bonded granular media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tordesillas, Antoinette; Tobin, Steven T; Cil, Mehmet; Alshibli, Khalid; Behringer, Robert P

    2015-06-01

    An established aspect of force transmission in quasistatic deformation of granular media is the existence of a dual network of strongly versus weakly loaded particles. Despite significant interest, the regulation of strong and weak forces through the contact network remains poorly understood. We examine this aspect of force transmission using data on microstructural fabric from: (I) three-dimensional discrete element models of grain agglomerates of bonded subspheres constructed from in situ synchrotron microtomography images of silica sand grains under unconfined compression and (II) two-dimensional assemblies of unbonded photoelastic circular disks submitted to biaxial compression under constant volume. We model force transmission as a network flow and solve the maximum flow-minimum cost (MFMC) problem, the solution to which yields a percolating subnetwork of contacts that transmits the "maximum flow" (i.e., the highest units of force) at "least cost" (i.e., the dissipated energy from such transmission). We find the MFMC describes a two-tier hierarchical architecture. At the local level, it encapsulates intraconnections between particles in individual force chains and in their conjoined 3-cycles, with the most common configuration having at least one force chain contact experiencing frustrated rotation. At the global level, the MFMC encapsulates interconnections between force chains. The MFMC can be used to predict most of the force chain particles without need for any information on contact forces, thereby suggesting the network flow framework may have potential broad utility in the modeling of force transmission in unbonded and bonded granular media.

  2. The Role of the Home Environment in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Lori J.; Aiello, Allison E.; Larson, Elaine

    2002-01-01

    Examines current health care literature on the microbiology of the home environment, summarizing evidence of transmission within the home and assessing the effectiveness of cleaning practices and products. The article focuses on the kitchen, bathroom, and laundry room, then looks at routes of transmission of infection within the home and discusses…

  3. Stochastic Modeling of Direct Radiation Transmission in Particle-Laden Turbulent Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banko, Andrew; Villafane, Laura; Kim, Ji Hoon; Esmaily Moghadam, Mahdi; Eaton, John K.

    2017-11-01

    Direct radiation transmission in turbulent flows laden with heavy particles plays a fundamental role in systems such as clouds, spray combustors, and particle-solar-receivers. Owing to their inertia, the particles preferentially concentrate and the resulting voids and clusters lead to deviations in mean transmission from the classical Beer-Lambert law for exponential extinction. Additionally, the transmission fluctuations can exceed those of Poissonian media by an order of magnitude, which implies a gross misprediction in transmission statistics if the correlations in particle positions are neglected. On the other hand, tracking millions of particles in a turbulence simulation can be prohibitively expensive. This work presents stochastic processes as computationally cheap reduced order models for the instantaneous particle number density field and radiation transmission therein. Results from the stochastic processes are compared to Monte Carlo Ray Tracing (MCRT) simulations using the particle positions obtained from the point-particle DNS of isotropic turbulence at a Taylor Reynolds number of 150. Accurate transmission statistics are predicted with respect to MCRT by matching the mean, variance, and correlation length of DNS number density fields. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy under Grant No. DE-NA0002373-1 and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DGE-114747.

  4. A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adiveppa S. Kadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. Method. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R0, using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated R0 from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. Result. The estimated R0 with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of R0. Conclusion. Basic reproduction number R0 provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth.

  5. Parent of origin, mosaicism, and recurrence risk: probabilistic modeling explains the broken symmetry of transmission genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ian M; Stewart, Jonathan R; James, Regis A; Lupski, James R; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Olofsson, Peter; Shaw, Chad A

    2014-10-02

    Most new mutations are observed to arise in fathers, and increasing paternal age positively correlates with the risk of new variants. Interestingly, new mutations in X-linked recessive disease show elevated familial recurrence rates. In male offspring, these mutations must be inherited from mothers. We previously developed a simulation model to consider parental mosaicism as a source of transmitted mutations. In this paper, we extend and formalize the model to provide analytical results and flexible formulas. The results implicate parent of origin and parental mosaicism as central variables in recurrence risk. Consistent with empirical data, our model predicts that more transmitted mutations arise in fathers and that this tendency increases as fathers age. Notably, the lack of expansion later in the male germline determines relatively lower variance in the proportion of mutants, which decreases with paternal age. Subsequently, observation of a transmitted mutation has less impact on the expected risk for future offspring. Conversely, for the female germline, which arrests after clonal expansion in early development, variance in the mutant proportion is higher, and observation of a transmitted mutation dramatically increases the expected risk of recurrence in another pregnancy. Parental somatic mosaicism considerably elevates risk for both parents. These findings have important implications for genetic counseling and for understanding patterns of recurrence in transmission genetics. We provide a convenient online tool and source code implementing our analytical results. These tools permit varying the underlying parameters that influence recurrence risk and could be useful for analyzing risk in diverse family structures. Copyright © 2014 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessing the impact of intervention strategies against Taenia solium cysticercosis using the EPICYST transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winskill, Peter; Harrison, Wendy E; French, Michael D; Dixon, Matthew A; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette; Basáñez, María-Gloria

    2017-02-09

    The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, and associated human infections, taeniasis, cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis, are serious public health problems, especially in developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for having a validated strategy for control and elimination of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis by 2015 and interventions scaled-up in selected countries by 2020. Timely achievement of these internationally-endorsed targets requires that the relative benefits and effectiveness of potential interventions be explored rigorously within a quantitative framework. A deterministic, compartmental transmission model (EPICYST) was developed to capture the dynamics of the taeniasis/cysticercosis disease system in the human and pig hosts. Cysticercosis prevalence in humans, an outcome of high epidemiological and clinical importance, was explicitly modelled. A next generation matrix approach was used to derive an expression for the basic reproduction number, R 0 . A full sensitivity analysis was performed using a methodology based on Latin-hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient index. EPICYST outputs indicate that chemotherapeutic intervention targeted at humans or pigs would be highly effective at reducing taeniasis and cysticercosis prevalence when applied singly, with annual chemotherapy of humans and pigs resulting, respectively, in 94 and 74% of human cysticercosis cases averted. Improved sanitation, meat inspection and animal husbandry are less effective but are still able to reduce prevalence singly or in combination. The value of R 0 for taeniasis was estimated at 1.4 (95% Credible Interval: 0.5-3.6). Human- and pig-targeted drug-focussed interventions appear to be the most efficacious approach from the options currently available. The model presented is a forward step towards developing an informed control and elimination strategy for cysticercosis. Together with its validation against field data, EPICYST will be a

  7. A unified modeling and control design for precision transmission system with friction and backlash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiulan Bao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The structural flexibility, nonlinear friction, and backlash are the major factors limiting the control performance of precision transmission systems. If uncompensated, these factors compromise the positioning and tracking accuracy of precision transmission systems and even cause limit cycles and oscillation. In this article, a framework for integrated design from dynamic modeling to controller design is proposed. A multi-state dynamic model is presented, which can unify the modeling for a multi-state, discontinuous system including the motor state, the motion state, the mechanical contact state, and the friction state. Then, a control design method related to the dynamic modeling using perturbation separation of the model parameters is presented. Using the proposed modeling method, a continuous dynamic model is established to include all different partition models. The model comprehensively describes the mechanical and electrical characteristics of the precision transmission system. A robust controller is designed using the proposed control method. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed modeling method is accurate and the proposed control method significantly improves accuracy and robustness of the controller compared to traditional control methods.

  8. A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max S Y Lau

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015. Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging.

  9. EpiModel: An R Package for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease over Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Samuel M; Goodreau, Steven M; Morris, Martina

    2018-04-01

    Package EpiModel provides tools for building, simulating, and analyzing mathematical models for the population dynamics of infectious disease transmission in R. Several classes of models are included, but the unique contribution of this software package is a general stochastic framework for modeling the spread of epidemics on networks. EpiModel integrates recent advances in statistical methods for network analysis (temporal exponential random graph models) that allow the epidemic modeling to be grounded in empirical data on contacts that can spread infection. This article provides an overview of both the modeling tools built into EpiModel , designed to facilitate learning for students new to modeling, and the application programming interface for extending package EpiModel , designed to facilitate the exploration of novel research questions for advanced modelers.

  10. Transmission line model for coupled rectangular double split‐ring resonators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Lei; Tang, Meng; Krozer, Viktor

    2011-01-01

    In this work, a model based on a coupled transmission line formulation is developed for microstrip rectangular double split‐ring resonators (DSRRs). This model allows using the physical dimensions of the DSRRs as an input avoiding commonly used extraction of equivalent parameters. The model inclu...... simulations of the DSRR structures. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53:1311–1315, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.25988...

  11. Theoretical vibro-acoustic modeling of acoustic noise transmission through aircraft windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloufi, Badr; Behdinan, Kamran; Zu, Jean

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a fully vibro-acoustic model for sound transmission across a multi-pane aircraft window is developed. The proposed model is efficiently applied for a set of window models to perform extensive theoretical parametric studies. The studied window configurations generally simulate the passenger window designs of modern aircraft classes which have an exterior multi-Plexiglas pane, an interior single acrylic glass pane and a dimmable glass ("smart" glass), all separated by thin air cavities. The sound transmission loss (STL) characteristics of three different models, triple-, quadruple- and quintuple-paned windows identical in size and surface density, are analyzed for improving the acoustic insulation performances. Typical results describing the influence of several system parameters, such as the thicknesses, number and spacing of the window panes, on the transmission loss are then investigated. In addition, a comparison study is carried out to evaluate the acoustic reduction capability of each window model. The STL results show that the higher frequencies sound transmission loss performance can be improved by increasing the number of window panels, however, the low frequency performance is decreased, particularly at the mass-spring resonances.

  12. ANASEC: a model for studying the operation security of a power transmission system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batut, J; Dodu, J C [Electricite de France, 92 - Clamart

    1985-01-01

    Presently, planning studies for the EHV system are carried out using probabilistic models which allow for an assessment of the characteristic values linked to the power transmission system. Among these values, the unsupplied energy (UE) measures the performances of the system from the standpoint of service quality, whereas the availability of the system at a given moment is characterized by the unsupplied power (UP). The ANASEC model computes the mathematical expectation of the UP and UE due to transient losses of load for a fixed load point. To achieve this, the model simulates a great number of incidents liable to result in a progressive degradation of the system. Such a degradation results in the cascade tripping of transmission equipment and generation units through the interplay of protection devices and automata. This cascade tripping is due either to load transfers on the lines, or a loss of unit stability. Since 1983, the ANASEC model is used in the decision-making studies for the planning of EHV transmission systems. To the traditional components of the assets of a new transmission equipment (fuel saving and reduction in structural UE), the ANASEC model makes it possible to add its contribution to the improvement of operation security.

  13. Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Brauer

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects.We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact. In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.

  14. Generation of a non-transmissive Borna disease virus vector lacking both matrix and glycoprotein genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Kan; Yamamoto, Yusuke; Daito, Takuji; Makino, Akiko; Honda, Tomoyuki; Tomonaga, Keizo

    2017-09-01

    Borna disease virus (BoDV), a prototype of mammalian bornavirus, is a non-segmented, negative strand RNA virus that often causes severe neurological disorders in infected animals, including horses and sheep. Unique among animal RNA viruses, BoDV transcribes and replicates non-cytopathically in the cell nucleus, leading to establishment of long-lasting persistent infection. This striking feature of BoDV indicates its potential as an RNA virus vector system. It has previously been demonstrated by our team that recombinant BoDV (rBoDV) lacking an envelope glycoprotein (G) gene develops persistent infections in transduced cells without loss of the viral genome. In this study, a novel non-transmissive rBoDV, rBoDV ΔMG, which lacks both matrix (M) and G genes in the genome, is reported. rBoDV-ΔMG expressing green fluorescence protein (GFP), rBoDV ΔMG-GFP, was efficiently generated in Vero/MG cells stably expressing both BoDV M and G proteins. Infection with rBoDV ΔMG-GFP was persistently maintained in the parent Vero cells without propagation within cell culture. The optimal ratio of M and G for efficient viral particle production by transient transfection of M and G expression plasmids into cells persistently infected with rBoDV ΔMG-GFP was also demonstrated. These findings indicate that the rBoDV ΔMG-based BoDV vector may provide an extremely safe virus vector system and could be a novel strategy for investigating the function of M and G proteins and the host range of bornaviruses. © 2017 The Societies and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  15. Transmission dynamics of rabies virus in Thailand: Implications for disease control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puanghat Apirom

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Thailand, rabies remains a neglected disease with authorities continuing to rely on human death statistics while ignoring the financial burden resulting from an enormous increase in post-exposure prophylaxis. Past attempts to conduct a mass dog vaccination and sterilization program have been limited to Bangkok city and have not been successful. We have used molecular epidemiology to define geographic localization of rabies virus phylogroups and their pattern of spread in Thailand. Methods We analyzed 239 nucleoprotein gene sequences from animal and human brain samples collected from all over Thailand between 1998 and 2002. We then reconstructed a phylogenetic tree correlating these data with geographical information. Results All sequences formed a monophyletic tree of 2 distinct phylogroups, TH1 and TH2. Three subgroups were identified in the TH1 subgroup and were distributed in the middle region of the country. Eight subgroups of TH2 viruses were identified widely distributed throughout the country overlapping the TH1 territory. There was a correlation between human-dependent transportation routes and the distribution of virus. Conclusion Inter-regional migration paths of the viruses might be correlated with translocation of dogs associated with humans. Interconnecting factors between human socioeconomic and population density might determine the transmission dynamics of virus in a rural-to-urban polarity. The presence of 2 or more rabies virus groups in a location might be indicative of a gene flow, reflecting a translocation of dogs within such region and adjacent areas. Different approaches may be required for rabies control based on the homo- or heterogeneity of the virus. Areas containing homogeneous virus populations should be targeted first. Control of dog movement associated with humans is essential.

  16. Modeling human disease using organotypic cultures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schweiger, Pawel J; Jensen, Kim B

    2016-01-01

    animal models and in vitro cell culture systems. However, it has been exceedingly difficult to model disease at the tissue level. Since recently, the gap between cell line studies and in vivo modeling has been narrowing thanks to progress in biomaterials and stem cell research. Development of reliable 3D...... culture systems has enabled a rapid expansion of sophisticated in vitro models. Here we focus on some of the latest advances and future perspectives in 3D organoids for human disease modeling....

  17. Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhásová L.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

  18. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin

    2015-01-01

    Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region. The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.

  19. A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Roy

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations, and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk and points in

  20. Zoonotic disease in a peripheral population: persistence and transmission of Leishmania major in a putative sink-source system in the Negev Highlands, Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Ruti; Wasserberg, Gideon; Warburg, Alon; Orshan, Laor; Kotler, Burt P

    2014-08-01

    Populations at the edge of their geographic distributions are referred to as peripheral populations. Very little attention has been given to this topic in the context of persistence of infectious disease in natural populations. In this study, we examined this question using zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania major in the Negev Desert of Israel as a model system. Here, we suggest that the regional persistence of Phlebotomus papatasi populations and L. major transmission in the Sede Boqer region could be explained through processes akin to sink-source and/or mainland-island metapopulation dynamics. Given its potentially enzootically superior ecological conditions, we hypothesize that the Zin Valley ecotope constitutes the "mainland" or the "source" patch for the Sede Boqer area where L. major transmission is persistent and resistant to local extinctions (die-outs) whereas the local sand fly populations on the Zin Plateau ("island patch" or "sink patch") are more prone to local extinctions. Between 2007 and 2008, we trapped sand flies and sand rats in the two areas and compared sand fly abundance and L. major infection prevalence in both. In both 2007 and 2008, sand fly abundance was high and continuous in the Zin Wadi but low and discontinuous in the Zin Plateau. Infection prevalence of sand rats was significantly higher in the Wadi (13%) compared with the Zin Plateau (3%). Minimum infection rate in sand flies did not differ significantly between the two areas. Overall, our results are consistent with the premise that the Zin Valley population is relatively robust in terms of L. major transmission, whereas transmission is potentially more tenuous in the plateau. Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes enabling the persistence of L. major and other vector-borne diseases in peripheral disease foci is important for predicting the effect of anthropogenic land use and climate change.

  1. Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

    2018-04-01

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcom