Child abuse consultations initiated by child protective services: the role of expert opinions.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Lindsay; Martin, Kimberly D; Leventhal, John M

2011-01-01

To describe consultations provided by child abuse pediatricians for cases referred by child protective services (CPS); compare the opinions of the likelihood of child maltreatment of the initial physician, CPS, and the child abuse pediatrician; and examine predictors of the experts' opinions. Cases were referred by CPS for consultations between March 1, 1998, and June 30, 2005, to 2 child abuse pediatricians at Yale-New Haven Children's Hospital. We abstracted demographic and clinical information and the opinions of the initial physician, CPS, and the child abuse expert, each coded using a 5-point scale from definite maltreatment to definite benign cause (eg, accident). Of 187 cases, 50.3% occurred in children younger than 1 year of age. Children's most serious injuries were fractures (50.8%), burns (16.6%), and bruises/abrasions (15.0%). The child abuse experts' opinions were 47.6% definite or probable maltreatment, 8.6% uncertain, and 43.9% definite or probable benign. Of the 119 cases with opinions from all 3 assessors, the expert agreed with the physician in 57.1% of cases (κ = 0.34) and with CPS in 64.7% (κ = 0.42). The best predictor of the expert's opinion that the injury was due to maltreatment was agreement between the physician and CPS that maltreatment had occurred. Levels of agreement were fair to poor between the child abuse expert and either the physician or CPS. Child abuse experts' opinions have important value in selected cases to confirm previous assessments by the physician and/or CPS, or to change the opinion of the case. Copyright © 2011 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

2011-01-01

treatment of chronic TTH. Mirtazapine and venlafaxine are second-choice drugs. EXPERT OPINION: There is an urgent need for more research in nonpharmacological as well as pharmacological treatment possibilities of TTH. Future studies should examine the relative efficacy of the various treatment modalities...

Experts' opinions on the role of diet in caries prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

van Loveren, C; Duggal, M S

2004-01-01

A questionnaire was sent to 54 experts in preventive dentistry in 23 European countries in order to make an inventory of existing national dietary guidelines for the prevention of dental caries. In addition, the experts were asked to give their personal opinion on several issues concerning the relationship between diet and dental caries. Forty-five experts from 20 countries returned the questionnaire. In 13 European countries dietary guidelines for caries prevention were available issued by a National (Dental) Association or a Government Body. All guidelines emphasised a reduction of the frequency of intakes of cariogenic foods. Two of them included a threshold level for the amount of sugar. When asked for their personal opinions, almost all experts mentioned reduction of frequency of 'cariogenic' intakes as the principal dietary messages for caries prevention. Four experts, however, explicitly mentioned that proper oral hygiene with fluoride toothpaste is more important. There was no agreement among the experts about a daily number of cariogenic intakes in between meals that can be regarded as safe, nor whether the message: 'Use products with sugar substitutes' should be part of the dietary guidelines for the prevention of dental caries. There was no agreement amongst experts on preventive dentistry in Europe on the contemporary validity of the paradigm: 'Sucrose is the arch criminal of dental caries.' Taking the variation in opinions into account and the fact that a balanced diet may lead to a moderate eating and snacking frequency, the authors propose that the emphasis on good versus bad foods for caries prevention should be replaced by an emphasis on good versus bad diets. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

Science.gov (United States)

Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

2011-01-01

A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

2016-01-01

External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: an example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation.

Science.gov (United States)

Garabed, R B; Perez, A M; Johnson, W O; Thurmond, M C

2009-11-01

When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts' opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for "diagnosing" country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts' responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

Key considerations for preventing suicide in older adults: consensus opinions of an expert panel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete; Conwell, Yeates

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: The number of older adults is growing rapidly. This fact, combined with the high rates of suicide in later life, indicates that many more older adults will die by their own hands before rigorous trials can be conducted to fully understand the best approaches to prevent late life suicide....... AIMS: To disseminate key considerations for interventions addressing senior suicidal behavior. METHODS: An international expert panel has reviewed and discussed key considerations for interventions against suicide in older adults based on existing evidence, where available, and expert opinion. RESULTS...

Belief in nuclear energy: Attitudes and opinions of Dutch nuclear experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arts, F.; Klaassen, R.; De Ruiter, W.

1994-01-01

The public opinion in the Netherlands about nuclear energy has been rather stable during recent years. Since the Chernobyl accident roughly 60% of the Dutch population is opposed to extension of the use of nuclear energy. Nuclear experts play an important role in the formation of public opinion about nuclear energy. In this paper the social and cultural background of 87 Dutch nuclear energy experts is analyzed with respect to religious belief, age, life style, membership of a political party, birth order and career pattern. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 16 refs

Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V Hampson

Full Text Available Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa.A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.

Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

1994-01-01

We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

2005-01-01

The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To validate the developed method

Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion or good science? ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... Despite scientific evidence to the contrary, a popular incremental field test for endurance athletes (Conconi Test) ...

Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

Science.gov (United States)

Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

2018-02-01

Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

2005-01-15

The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To

Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fine, T.L.

1980-04-01

This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

Experts' opinion on the radioecology of the waste water of Esensham nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bliefert, M.; Marks, R.; Meier, A.; Wallenschus, M.

1978-01-01

Review of the legal steps taken in the dispute over the radiation burden due to the nuclear power plant. There are the experts Prof. Feld (official expert's opunion) with 0.0028 mrem/a and Prof. Bleck (plaintiff's expert's opinion) with 230 mrem/a. The different values obtained are attributed to transfer factors of Cs and to a manipulation of dose factors. (GL) [de

Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Jennifer

1987-01-01

A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest. (UK)

Oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism: Expert opinion versus current practice: Combined results of a systematic review, expert panel opinion and an international survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klok, F. A.; Schreiber, K.; Stach, K.; Ageno, W.; Middeldorp, S.; Eichinger, S.; Delluc, A.; Blondon, M.; Ay, C.

2017-01-01

The optimal management of oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is largely unknown. We aimed to elicit expert opinion and compare that to current practice as assessed by a world-wide international web-based survey among physicians. 10

Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

1987-08-01

The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

The opinion of experts in the assessment of reliability in nuclear power plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akersten, P.A.; Wirstad, J.

1983-06-01

An inventory of methods used for quantifying of the opinion of experts for use in fault tree evaluations is presented. A number of different methods are evaluated and future research is recommended for three, namely 1. Saatys Analytical Hierarchy Process. 2. Embreys SLIM-method with variations. 3. Methods for feed-back from the expert group during evaluation.(authors)

Expert opinion on climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordhaus, W.D.

1994-01-01

This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

2015-01-01

Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

Science.gov (United States)

Koehler, Derek J

2016-03-01

Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

[A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years].

Science.gov (United States)

Uhlenbrock, Judith; Hinrichs, Jens; Heuft, Gereon

2017-09-01

assessment verbally. It should be emphasized that OPD conflict and structural diagnostics appear indispensable also for assessing mental health prior to an external event (accident or assault). The use of the two severity ratings (ISS, GAF) is discussed. It is proposed that expert witnesses be requested to name all their clients fromthe last 5 years at the beginning or end of the expert opinion, so that their independence from possible conflicts of interest can be established.

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

Science.gov (United States)

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

Evaluating Presence Data versus Expert Opinions to Assess Occurrence, Habitat Preferences and Landscape Permeability: A Case Study of Butterflies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Arfan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI. Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

Automatic Annotation Method on Learners' Opinions in Case Method Discussion

Science.gov (United States)

Samejima, Masaki; Hisakane, Daichi; Komoda, Norihisa

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to annotate an attribute of a problem, a solution or no annotation on learners' opinions automatically for supporting the learners' discussion without a facilitator. The case method aims at discussing problems and solutions in a target case. However, the learners miss discussing some of problems and solutions.…

Ustekinumab in the management of Crohn's disease: Expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Armuzzi, Alessandro; Ardizzone, Sandro; Biancone, Livia; Castiglione, Fabiana; Danese, Silvio; Gionchetti, Paolo; Orlando, Ambrogio; Rizzello, Fernando; Scribano, Maria Lia; Vecchi, Maurizio; Daperno, Marco

2018-03-11

This expert-opinion paper reviews available evidence for the use of ustekinumab, a human interleukin 12/23 monoclonal antibody, in the treatment of Crohn's disease and discusses its potential role in the current treatment scenario for the condition. Ustekinumab appears to be associated with rapid and sustained clinical effect, as reported from the clinical research program, with additional support for potential mucosal healing. These characteristics are paralleled by a favorable safety profile, lack of immunogenicity and the presence of systemic anti-inflammatory activity. Importantly, ustekinumab requires only one single intravenous administration, while subsequent dosing is administered subcutaneously, with potential advantages for home-based therapy. Lastly, the dosage of ustekinumab is flexible. On the basis of the evidence, ustekinumab has a role in patients with primary failure or secondary loss of response to anti-tumor necrosis factor agents, as well as in those who have adverse events on front-line biologics or are reinitiating therapy after a treatment holiday. Current evidence suggests that ustekinumab may be particularly suitable in patients who present extra-intestinal manifestations of the disease or are at risk of infections. Ustekinumab may also be considered in the first-line setting, especially in frail patients, in young subjects or in those who have concomitant immune-mediated diseases. Copyright © 2018 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert opinion on laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer parallels evidence from a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillaume Martel

Full Text Available This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence.A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores.A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews. In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031 and open (n = 2,751 colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09. Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002-2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial.Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002-2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

Science.gov (United States)

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

2015-08-18

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-05-01

The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

Interdisciplinary management of EGFR-inhibitor-induced skin reactions: a German expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Potthoff, K; Hofheinz, R; Hassel, J C; Volkenandt, M; Lordick, F; Hartmann, J T; Karthaus, M; Riess, H; Lipp, H P; Hauschild, A; Trarbach, T; Wollenberg, A

2011-03-01

Anti-epidermal growth factor receptor treatment strategies, i.e. monoclonal antibodies such as cetuximab and panitumumab, or epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as erlotinib and gefitinib, have expanded the treatment options for different tumor types. Dermatologic toxic effects are the most common side-effects of EGFR inhibitor therapy. They can profoundly affect the patient's quality of life. The aim of this study was to provide interdisciplinary expert recommendations on how to treat patients with skin reactions undergoing anti-EGFR treatment. An expert panel from Germany with expertise in medical oncology, dermatology or clinical pharmacology was convened to develop expert recommendations based on published peer-reviewed literature. The expert recommendations for the state-of-the-art treatment of skin reactions induced by EGFR inhibitor therapy include recommendations for diagnostics and grading as well as grade-specific and stage-adapted treatment approaches and preventive measures. It was concluded that EGFR-inhibitor-related dermatologic reactions should always be treated combining basic care of the skin and a specific therapy adapted to stage and grade of skin reaction. For grade 2 and above, specific treatment recommendations for early- and later-stage skin reactions induced by EGFR-inhibitor therapy were proposed. This paper presents a German national expert opinion for the treatment of skin reactions in patients receiving EGFR inhibitor therapy.

Proposal for a structured computed tomography report in the evaluation of pancreatic neoplasms based on expert opinions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopes, Paulo Gustavo Maciel; Matsumoto, Carlos Alberto; Lobo, Edson José; D' Ippolito, Giuseppe, E-mail: pgmlopes87@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), SP (Brazil). Escola de Medicina

2018-03-15

Objective: To create a structured computed tomography (CT) report for the systematic evaluation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), based on the opinions of clinicians and surgeons. Materials And Methods: This was a prospective study in which we applied a 21-item questionnaire to experts in pancreatic diseases in order to create a model of a structured abdominal CT report. The questionnaire addressed the location and size of PDACs, as well as their effects on adjacent structures and on the vasculature, together with metastases. We used a Likert scale to determine which of those parameters should be included in the model. Results: A total of 18 experts (12 surgeons and 6 clinicians) from 9 institutions completed the questionnaire. All of the experts agreed that the following (if present) should be described in the CT report on a PDAC: the degree of enhancement; the diameter and location of the lesion; pancreatic duct obstruction; biliary dilatation; pancreatic atrophy; liver metastases; peritoneal nodules; ascites; lymph node enlargement; and invasion of adjacent structures. More than 80% of the experts agreed that the report should also describe the relationship between the PDAC and the surrounding vasculature. Conclusion: We have developed a template for a CT report on patients with PDAC, based on the opinions of experts involved in the treatment of such patients. (author)

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen Vives-Cases

Full Text Available Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

1998-01-01

A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson-Holt, Claire D; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C; Nevin, Owen T; Ramsey, Andrew D

2014-01-01

Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire D Stevenson-Holt

Full Text Available Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

[Professionalization of Legal Dental Experts in Germany: Results of Studies on Structured Focus Groups].

Science.gov (United States)

Brauer, H U; Walther, W; Dick, M

2018-04-01

Legal expert opinions are a crucial instrument of professional self-control in medicine. To give impulses for further development, focus groups were initiated to reflect upon the perspective of legal dental experts. 5 focus group discussions on the topic "Professionalization of legal dental experts" were conducted. A total of 32 experienced legal dental experts participated in the discussions. The results were evaluated by qualitative content analysis. A catalogue of 68 ideas was generated for improvement and divided into 15 categories. Among these were periodic quality circles, interprofessional exchange, supervision of novices and periodic feedback for legal dental experts and dentists. Self-reflection can be included as an instrument for quality improvement of legal dental expert opinions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding. [Of radioactive waste repositories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, J

1987-02-01

A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest.

Experts discuss unconventional conflicts in the Americas | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2015-07-10

Jul 10, 2015 ... Experts discuss unconventional conflicts in the Americas ... in illicit activities — like drug smuggling and illegal mining — that destabilize societies and ruin lives. ... Social exclusion and "violences" in Central American cities.

Perception of risks by opinion leaders 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The authors report a survey made just after the Fukushima accident on a panel of opinion leaders (belonging to political, economical or media sector) in order to compare their perception of risks with that of the public. The questions addressed the perception of risks, the role of scientific experts, the usefulness and breaks on the diffusion of expertise results, the perception of pluralist bodies, and the Fukushima accident. The answers are analysed and discussed with respect to fifteen hazardous situations, to their opinion of expertise, and to their opinion on safety audit and information

Expert-Opinion Elicitation for the Risk Analysis of Design-Improvement Alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ayyub, Bilal M

2002-01-01

This report documents the expert-opinion elicitation performed to meet risk analysis needs of the lower lock approach sediment management improvement alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam...

Building legitimacy by criticising the pharmaceutical industry: a qualitative study among prescribers and local opinion leaders.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittet, Anne-Laure; Saraga, Michael; Stiefel, Friedrich

2015-01-01

The literature has described opinion leaders not only as marketing tools of the pharmaceutical industry, but also as educators promoting good clinical practice. This qualitative study addresses the distinction between the opinion-leader-as-marketing-tool and the opinion-leader-as-educator, as it is revealed in the discourses of physicians and experts, focusing on the prescription of antidepressants. We explore the relational dynamic between physicians, opinion leaders and the pharmaceutical industry in an area of French-speaking Switzerland. Qualitative content analysis of 24 semistructured interviews with physicians and local experts in psychopharmacology, complemented by direct observation of educational events led by the experts, which were all sponsored by various pharmaceutical companies. Both physicians and experts were critical of the pharmaceutical industry and its use of opinion leaders. Local experts, in contrast, were perceived by the physicians as critical of the industry and, therefore, as a legitimate source of information. Local experts did not consider themselves opinion leaders and argued that they remained intellectually independent from the industry. Field observations confirmed that local experts criticised the industry at continuing medical education events. Local experts were vocal critics of the industry, which nevertheless sponsor their continuing education. This critical attitude enhanced their credibility in the eyes of the prescribing physicians. We discuss how the experts, despite their critical attitude, might still be beneficial to the industry's interests.

Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

Science.gov (United States)

Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

2017-06-01

To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Furthering patient adherence: a position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dulmen, Sandra; Sluijs, Emmy; van Dijk, Liset; de Ridder, Denise; Heerdink, Rob; Bensing, Jozien

2008-02-27

As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. The thirty-five corresponding authors of the review studies included in the meta-review were invited to join the International Expert Forum on Patient Adherence and to participate in a four-week web-based focus group discussion. The discussion was triggered by the points on the preliminary agenda presented as propositions to which forum members could react. Two researchers analysed the transcripts and selected relevant phrases. Twenty adherence experts participated. Various ideas and viewpoints were raised. After the closure of the web-site, the expert forum was asked to authorize the synthesis of the discussion, to list the propositions in order of priority and to answer a few questions on the use of the web-based focus group as a tool to obtain expert opinions. Their ranking showed that the development of simple interventions is the most promising step to take in fostering patient adherence, preferably within a multidisciplinary setting of medical, pharmaceutical, social and technical science and, not in the least, by incorporating patients' perspectives. For enhancing adherence, the development of simple interventions originating from a multidisciplinary perspective including patients' input, appears most promising. Disclosing patients' perspectives requires open communication about patients' expectations, needs and experiences in taking medication and about what might help them to become and remain adherent.

Furthering patient adherence: A position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heerdink Rob

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. Methods The thirty-five corresponding authors of the review studies included in the meta-review were invited to join the International Expert Forum on Patient Adherence and to participate in a four-week web-based focus group discussion. The discussion was triggered by the points on the preliminary agenda presented as propositions to which forum members could react. Two researchers analysed the transcripts and selected relevant phrases. Results Twenty adherence experts participated. Various ideas and viewpoints were raised. After the closure of the web-site, the expert forum was asked to authorize the synthesis of the discussion, to list the propositions in order of priority and to answer a few questions on the use of the web-based focus group as a tool to obtain expert opinions. Their ranking showed that the development of simple interventions is the most promising step to take in fostering patient adherence, preferably within a multidisciplinary setting of medical, pharmaceutical, social and technical science and, not in the least, by incorporating patients' perspectives. Conclusion For enhancing adherence, the development of simple interventions originating from a multidisciplinary perspective including patients' input, appears most promising. Disclosing patients' perspectives requires open communication about patients' expectations, needs and experiences in taking medication and about what might help them to become and remain adherent.

Expert opinion on detecting and treating depression in palliative care: A Delphi study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hotopf Matthew

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a dearth of data regarding the optimal method of detecting and treating depression in palliative care. This study applied the Delphi method to evaluate expert opinion on choice of screening tool, choice of antidepressant and choice of psychological therapy. The aim was to inform the development of best practice recommendations for the European Palliative Care Research Collaborative clinical practice guideline on managing depression in palliative care. Methods 18 members of an international, multi-professional expert group completed a structured questionnaire in two rounds, rating their agreement with proposed items on a scale from 0-10 and annotating with additional comments. The median and range were calculated to give a statistical average of the experts' ratings. Results There was contention regarding the benefits of screening, with 'routine informal asking' (median 8.5 (0-10 rated more highly than formal screening tools such as the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (median 7.0 (1-10. Mirtazapine (median 9 (7-10 and citalopram (median 9 (5-10 were the considered the best choice of antidepressant and cognitive behavioural therapy (median 9.0 (3-10 the best choice of psychological therapy. Conclusions The range of expert ratings was broad, indicating discordance in the views of experts. Direct comparative data from randomised controlled trials are needed to strengthen the evidence-base and achieve clarity on how best to detect and treat depression in this setting.

Perspectives of tax reforms in Croatia: expert opinion survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hrvoje Šimović

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In order to shape tax reform it is necessary objectively to assess the current stateof-the-art of and of the outlook for the tax system. After having reviewed all previous reforms in the light of the consumption-based (interest-adjusted concept of direct taxation, which was almost systematically implemented in Croatia in 1994, we present the results of a broad expert opinion survey about the Croatian tax system. The most interesting results suggest the maintenance/(reintroduction of different tax incentives and reduced VAT rates, rejection of a flat tax as well as decrease of tax brackets, an increase in alcohol and tobacco duties, the introduction of a financial activities tax, a further shift from income to consumption, a decrease of the tax share in GDP and a belief in the behavioral responsiveness of tax decreases/exemptions, as well as a firm commitment to the principle of equity. The last three economic views/values are important predictors of other tax attitudes.

Identifying deficiencies in national and foreign medical team responses through expert opinion surveys: implications for education and training.

Science.gov (United States)

Djalali, Ahmadreza; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Corte, Francesco Della; Foletti, Marco; Gallardo, Alba Ripoll; Ragazzoni, Luca; Kaptan, Kubilay; Lupescu, Olivera; Arculeo, Chris; von Arnim, Gotz; Friedl, Tom; Ashkenazi, Michael; Heselmann, Deike; Hreckovski, Boris; Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Khorrram-Manesh, Amir; Komadina, Radko; Lechner, Kostanze; Patru, Cristina; Burkle, Frederick M; Fisher, Philipp

2014-08-01

Unacceptable practices in the delivery of international medical assistance are reported after every major international disaster; this raises concerns about the clinical competence and practice of some foreign medical teams (FMTs). The aim of this study is to explore and analyze the opinions of disaster management experts about potential deficiencies in the art and science of national and FMTs during disasters and the impact these opinions might have on competency-based education and training. This qualitative study was performed in 2013. A questionnaire-based evaluation of experts' opinions and experiences in responding to disasters was conducted. The selection of the experts was done using the purposeful sampling method, and the sample size was considered by data saturation. Content analysis was used to explore the implications of the data. This study shows that there is a lack of competency-based training for disaster responders. Developing and performing standardized training courses is influenced by shortcomings in budget, expertise, and standards. There is a lack of both coordination and integration among teams and their activities during disasters. The participants of this study emphasized problems concerning access to relevant resources during disasters. The major findings of this study suggest that teams often are not competent during the response phase because of education and training deficiencies. Foreign medical teams and medically related nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) do not always provide expected capabilities and services. Failures in leadership and in coordination among teams are also a problem. All deficiencies need to be applied to competency-based curricula.

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

Running retraining to treat lower limb injuries: a mixed-methods study of current evidence synthesised with expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, C J; Bonanno, D R; Carr, J; Neal, B S; Malliaras, P; Franklyn-Miller, A; Menz, H B

2016-05-01

Running-related injuries are highly prevalent. Synthesise published evidence with international expert opinion on the use of running retraining when treating lower limb injuries. Mixed methods. A systematic review of clinical and biomechanical findings related to running retraining interventions were synthesised and combined with semistructured interviews with 16 international experts covering clinical reasoning related to the implementation of running retraining. Limited evidence supports the effectiveness of transition from rearfoot to forefoot or midfoot strike and increase step rate or altering proximal mechanics in individuals with anterior exertional lower leg pain; and visual and verbal feedback to reduce hip adduction in females with patellofemoral pain. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence, experts recommended running retraining for: iliotibial band syndrome; plantar fasciopathy (fasciitis); Achilles, patellar, proximal hamstring and gluteal tendinopathy; calf pain; and medial tibial stress syndrome. Tailoring approaches to each injury and individual was recommended to optimise outcomes. Substantial evidence exists for the immediate biomechanical effects of running retraining interventions (46 studies), including evaluation of step rate and strike pattern manipulation, strategies to alter proximal kinematics and cues to reduce impact loading variables. Our synthesis of published evidence related to clinical outcomes and biomechanical effects with expert opinion indicates running retraining warrants consideration in the treatment of lower limb injuries in clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

[Deontology of the medical expert].

Science.gov (United States)

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

Experts' discussion on reactor safety research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

The experts' discussion on reactor safety research deals with risk analysis, political realization, man and technics, as well as with the international state of affairs. Inspite of a controversy on individual issues and on the proportion of governmental and industrial involvment in reactor safety research, the continuation and intensification of corresponding research work is said to be necessary. Several participants demanded to consider possible 'conventional accidents' as well as a stronger financial commitment by the industry in this sector. The ratio 'man and technics' being an interface decisive for the proper functioning or failure of complex technical systems requires even more research work to be done. (GL) [de

Environment and health. Realistic risk assessment. Special expert opinion; Umwelt und Gesundheit. Risiken richtig einschaetzen. Sondergutachten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-12-01

In this special expert opinion, the Environmental Council discusses the problem of how to assess the risk of environment-induced health hazards. In many cases, there is a discrepancy between scientific risk assessment and subjective risk perception of the exposed population in this context. The Environmental Council suggests that communication between all parties concerned should be improved by target-finding models and also proposes an integrative risk assessment procedure. It is particularly important to identify and characterize vulnerable groups by scientific methods. [German] In seinem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Gesundheit - Risiken richtig einschaetzen greift der Umweltrat die Problematik von Risikoabschaetzungen umweltbedingter Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen auf. In diesem Zusammenhang ist vielfach eine Diskrepanz zwischen wissenschaftlicher Risikoabschaetzung und der subjektiven Risikowahrnehmung seitens der Betroffenen festzustellen. Der Umweltrat verweist zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation zwischen den beteiligten Gruppen auf entsprechende Modelle zur Zielfindung und schlaegt einen integrativen Ansatz zur Risikobewertung vor. Von besonderer Bedeutung bei der Bewertung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen ist die wissenschaftlich begruendete Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von empfindlichen Gruppen (vulnerablen Gruppen). (orig.)

Problems arising in connection with the commissioning of experts in conflict-oriented implementation of nuclear law. The legal status of expert opinions in administrative procedures under the Atomic Energy Act

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiebig, T.H.

1995-01-01

Court decisions available so far do not primarily consider the problems linked to the commissioning of an expert and his mandate, as well as the legal status of the commissioning of an expert as an administrative act which might be legally contestable. Thus there are at present no court decisions that would create legal certainty in matters of the act of commissioning a nuclear expert opinion. The current legal situation is such that an independent order for commissioning of an expert opinion in compliance with section 19 III AtG (Atomic Energy Act), which in general is given in response to the refusal of the facility operator to do so, can be independently contested on the basis of section 44 a, sentence 2 VwGO (Rules of Administrative Courts). The current practice of conflict-oriented, or nuclear power phase-out-oriented, implementation of the nuclear law poses a threat to our constitutional state and to our democracy. The supply of energy as a common good is of essential importance and thus deserves fair and objective treatment free of emotions, including the matter of nuclear energy. In cases of nuclear licensing procedures meeting with impedimental treatment by a Land government favouring the nuclear power phase-out, this treatment however not fitting into the Land governments' overall political line, there is reason to call upon the Federal Government to take action for clarifying the situation. (orig./HP) [de

Forensic medicine experts' opinion on medico-legal autopsies in hospital deaths: a questionnaire survey.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Souza, Deepak Herald; Pant, Sadip; Menezes, Ritesh George

2013-10-01

Medico-legal autopsy is conducted routinely in some countries and selectively in others in hospital deaths. This study was conducted to evaluate the views of the forensic medicine experts regarding this matter. A questionnaire pro forma was sent to sixty-five forensic medicine experts practicing in different medical institutions all around India. Designations and experiences of the participants were noted by requests in the same questionnaire. Their specific experience in conducting medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths was also requested for. Responses were charted in frequency distribution tables and analyzed using SPSS, version 17.0. One-third of the participants felt that a medico-legal autopsy was necessary in all the hospital death cases as defined in the present study. Ten percent of the participants opined that a medico-legal autopsy was unnecessary in hospital deaths. The majority of the experts mentioned finding the cause of death, followed by finding the manner of death and collecting the evidentiary materials, as the reasons for medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths. Twenty percent of the participants felt that internal findings at autopsy poorly matched with the case records. All the experts agreed that external autopsy findings matched with the hospital case records. Nearly two-third of the participants felt that it was difficult in some cases to interpret the autopsy findings without case records from the hospital where the deceased was treated. Our findings suggest that the exercise of carrying out medico-legal autopsy routinely in every hospital death as evident in the Indian framework is often unnecessary as per the experts' opinion. Autopsy findings in hospital deaths often correlate with hospital case records.

How Do Novice and Expert Learners Represent, Understand, and Discuss Geologic Time?

Science.gov (United States)

Layow, Erica Amanda

This dissertation examined the representations novice and expert learners constructed for the geologic timescale. Learners engaged in a three-part activity. The purpose was to compare novice learners' representations to those of expert learners. This provided insight into the similarities and differences between their strategies for event ordering, assigning values and scale to the geologic timescale model, as well as their language and practices to complete the model. With a qualitative approach to data analysis informed by an expert-novice theoretical framework grounded in phenomenography, learner responses comprised the data analyzed. These data highlighted learners' metacognitive thoughts that might not otherwise be shared through lectures or laboratory activities. Learners' responses were analyzed using a discourse framework that positioned learners as knowers. Novice and expert learners both excelled at ordering and discussing events before the Phanerozoic, but were challenged with events during the Phanerozoic. Novice learners had difficulty assigning values to events and establishing a scale for their models. Expert learners expressed difficulty with determining a scale because of the size of the model, yet eventually used anchor points and unitized the model to establish a scale. Despite challenges constructing their models, novice learners spoke confidently using claims and few hedging phrases indicating their confidence in statements made. Experts used more hedges than novices, however the hedging comments were made about more complex conceptions. Using both phenomenographic and discourse analysis approaches for analysis foregrounded learners' discussions of how they perceived geologic time and their ways of knowing and doing. This research is intended to enhance the geoscience community's understanding of the ways novice and expert learners think and discuss conceptions of geologic time, including the events and values of time, and the strategies used

Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davide Astiaso Garcia

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical, hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into chemical energy by means of the electrolysis of water which does not produce any toxic or climate-relevant emission. This paper aims to pinpoint the potential uses of renewable hydrogen storage systems in Europe, analysing current and potential locations, regulatory framework, governments’ outlooks, economic issues, and available renewable energy amounts. The expert opinion survey, already used in many research articles on different topics including energy, has been selected as an effective method to produce realistic results. The obtained results highlight strategies and actions to optimize the storage of hydrogen produced by renewables to face varying electricity demand and generation-driven fluctuations reducing the negative effects of the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix of European Countries.

Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

[Adolescent arsonists--psychodynamics, family dynamics and attempt at framing a typology based on 40 expert opinions].

Science.gov (United States)

Klosinski, G; Bertsch, S L

2001-02-01

Psychiatric, psychological and medical data of 40 adolescent firesetters are obtained from a retrospective analysis of expert opinions which have been drawn up by the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Tübingen over a period of 16 years (1981-1997). This analysis mainly focusses on the patients' physical and psychosexual development, their social integration and competence and their family dynamics. It further concentrates on the psychic situation at the time of the offense, the reasons and motives given for firesetting (by the patient and by the expert) and specific psychological test results. According to the results three different characteristic groups can be found: 1st a group of offenders who have set fires to their parents' house, 2nd firesetters being member of the firebrigade, and 3rd an unspecific inhomogeneous group of firesetters.

Expert judgment for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

2000-01-01

Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

Medico-legal and legal-penal aspects of expert opinions and adjudication in cases of intoxications with intoxicating agents and ethanol-like intoxicants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika Ćwiklińska

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The available legal regulations in Poland do not define the concentration thresholds enabling to differentiate between the states of “after-use” versus “under the influence” of a drug, as it is in the case of alcohol. The aim of the study was to analyse jurisdiction in cases regarding the evaluation of the effects of intoxicating agents and ethanol-like intoxicants and to identify ambiguities and gaps in the applicable regulations leading to problems in preparing expert opinions. Material and methods: The material included the opinions of experts in the field of toxicology and forensic medicine made by the Department of Forensic Medicine in Lublin in the years 2009–2011 and records obtained in the process of inquiry from the regional prosecutor’s offices and courts in 52 cases. Results : Amongst 52 cases in which the ordered toxicology examinations demonstrated the presence of intoxicating agents in drivers’ blood (tetrahydrocannabinols in 39 and amphetamine in 21 cases in 2 cases petty offence proceedings were instituted (Art. 87 of the Petty Offence Code although high concentrations of xenobiotics indicated the state of being “under the influence” of a narcotic drug (Art. 178a of the Penal Code. Three cases were discontinued despite expert opinions that the drivers were at least in the after-narcotic use state. In only 3 cases were witnesses asked to provide testimony about the circumstances of the driver’s conduct. Conclusions : The analysis has demonstrated that judicial bodies expect forensic expertise based exclusively on toxicological examination results; when expert findings are inconclusive, they only administer litigations opportunistically applying the principle of the presumption of innocence understood literally. Considering the above, threshold values of “use” and “influence” of the most commonly detected drugs should be urgently determined.

Evidence - based pharmacological treatment of atopic dermatitis: An expert opinion and new expectations

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Arnold P Oranje

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Atopic dermatitis (AD is one of the most common skin diseases with a complex multifactorial background. The clinical presentation, the aggravating factors and the complications vary according to the age of the patients. Most cases, approximately 60-80%, present for the 1 st time before the age of 12 months. Adult-onset AD has been observed as a special variant. Pruritus is the worst sign of AD, which also often indicates an exacerbation and is considered to be the most annoying symptom of AD. Treatment is preferably started based on the severity of AD. In only 10% of the cases, AD is so severe that systemic treatment is necessary. Systemic treatment including topical wet-wrap treatment is indicated in the worst and recalcitrant cases of AD. Systemic treatment of AD is discussed with regards to the evidence-based efficacy and safety aspects. I prefer wet-wraps as a crisis intervention in severe childhood cases, whereas UV and systemic treatments are the choices in patients older than 10 years. Probiotics are not useful in the treatment. If they have any effect at all it may only be in food-allergic children with AD. Finally, anti-histamines are not effective against pruritus in AD. They are only effective against urticarial flares and in cases with food-allergy. This article consists of an expert opinion on evidence-based pharmacological treatment of AD, but it is not a systemic review.

Right of residence under Article 20 TFEU of the Primary Carer of a Minor Union Citizen: Summary of an expert opinion on issues arising from the pending case of Chavez-Vilchez and others (C-133/15)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dziedzic, Lukasz; Davies, Gareth; De Lange, Janneke; Biersteker, Anouk; Navia-Rodriguez, Lorena

2015-01-01

This is an English language summary of an extensive Dutch expert opinion concerning a pending ECJ case of wide relevance - a follow up to Ruiz Zambrano and Dereci which explores some of the more complex and realistic scenarios which may arise. That expert opinion provides a legal analysis of the

Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine Rohde

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a “new” potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the “Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research” conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26–29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application.

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

Science.gov (United States)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

1984-11-01

The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables

Expert opinion in the management of aqueous Deficient Dry Eye Disease (DED).

Science.gov (United States)

Sy, Aileen; O'Brien, Kieran S; Liu, Margaret P; Cuddapah, Puja A; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M; Rose-Nussbaumer, Jennifer

2015-10-13

Dry eye disease (DED) affects millions of people worldwide. There are a variety of new treatments beyond traditional therapies such as preservative free artificial tears. Here, we conduct a survey to identify the most common treatments used among specialists and assess their interest in newer therapies. An international survey was distributed to dry eye researchers and expert practitioners via an internet survey. The survey data collected were analyzed with descriptive statistics. One hundred and fifteen respondents completed the survey; of these, 66 % were cornea specialists. The most commonly prescribed topical treatments included cyclosporine A (CSA) 0.05 % (71/104, 68 %), fluorometholone (FML) 0.1 % (59/99, 60 %), loteprednol etabonate 0.5 % (50/99, 51 %), and autologous serum eye drops (ASD; 48/97, 49 %). The most commonly prescribed non-topical medications included essential fatty acid supplements (72/104, 69 %), low-dose doxycycline (oral; 61/100, 61 %), and flaxseed supplements (32/96, 33 %) as well as punctal plugs (76/102, 75 %). Respondents reported treatment with topical corticosteroids for 2 to 8 weeks (46/86, 53 %), followed by less than 2 weeks (24/86, 28 %) and with topical CSA between 2 to 8 weeks (45/85, 53 %) followed by 2 to 6 months (24/85, 28 %). The top three signs and symptoms reported to indicate treatment response were, in order, fluorescein staining of the cornea, reduction in foreign body sensation, and reduction in burning sensation. This survey offers insight into current expert opinion in the treatment of DED. The results of this survey are hypothesis generating and will aid in the design of future clinical studies.

Dramatically Polarized Opinion on the Role of Brachytherapy Boost in Management of High-risk Prostate Cancer: A Survey of North American Genitourinary Expert Radiation Oncologists.

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McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

2018-06-01

Three randomized clinical trials have established brachytherapy (BT) boost in combination with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) as superior to definitive EBRT and ADT alone in terms of biochemical control (but not overall survival) at the expense of increased toxicity in men with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa). The current view regarding these 2 treatment algorithms among North American genitourinary (GU) experts is not known. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to opinions regarding BT as monotherapy for low-risk PCa and BT boost for HR PCa. Responders were asked to self-identify as BT experts versus non-experts. Treatment recommendations were correlated with practice patterns using the Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey, of whom 23 (55%) recommend EBRT and ADT alone and 19 (45%) recommend addition of BT boost. Twenty-five participants (60%) identified themselves as BT experts. Nearly 90% of those recommending BT boost were BT experts versus approximately 10% of non-BT experts (P < .001). Responders who recommended BT monotherapy as first-choice treatment for low-risk PCa were more likely to recommend BT boost for HR PCa (P < .0001). There is a dramatic polarization in opinions regarding incorporation of BT boost into EBRT + ADT therapy for patients with HR PCa among North American GU radiation oncology experts, who serve on decision-making committees and influence the national treatment guidelines and future clinical trials. Those who identify themselves as BT experts are significantly more likely to recommend BT boost. These findings are likely to influence the national guidelines and implementation of BT boost in current and future North American PCa clinical studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mental illness and legal fitness (competence) to stand trial in New York State: expert opinion and criminal defendants' psychiatric symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eugene; Rosner, Richard; Harmon, Ronnie

2014-07-01

Fitness to Stand Trial is a critical concept in the adjudication of justice-involved persons. A retrospective study was conducted to examine criminal defendants' specific psychiatric symptoms and those symptoms' associations with expert opinions on Competence to Stand Trial. One hundred charts were reviewed: 50 Cases (opined as Not Fit) were compared against 50 Controls (opined as Fit) with respect to ratings on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). A significance level of 0.001 was selected a priori. Statistically significant differences were found in seven of the eighteen BPRS symptom constructs (with the highest differences in Conceptual Disorganization and Unusual Thought Content) and two of the four BPRS higher-order syndrome factors (Thinking Disorder and Hostile-Suspiciousness). Consistent with previous reports, psychotic symptoms are found in this study to be inversely associated with Fitness. Validity, reliability, and limitations of this study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed herein. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

OpenAIRE

Dobrinić, Damir; Dvorski, Stjepan; Bosilj, Neven

2008-01-01

Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and...

Experiences and Opinions Related to End-of-Life Discussion: From Oncologists' and Resident Physicians' Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Su-Jin; Kim, Shinmi; Kim, JinShil; Keam, Bhumsuk; Heo, Dae Seog; Lee, Kyung Hee; Kim, Bong-Seog; Kim, Jee Hyun; Chang, Hye Jung; Baek, Sun Kyung

2018-04-01

The aims of this study were to explore how oncologists and resident physicians practice end-of-life (EOL) discussions and to solicit their opinions on EOL discussions as a means to improve the quality of EOL care. A survey questionnaire was developed to explore the experiences and opinions about EOL discussions among oncologists and residents. Descriptive statistics, the t test, and the chisquare test were performed for the analyses. A total of 147 oncologists and 229 residents participated in this study. The study respondents reported diverse definitions of "terminal state," and mostrespondents tried to disclose the patient's condition to the patient and/or family members. Both groups were involved in EOL care discussions, with a rather low satisfaction level (57.82/100). The best timing to initiate discussionwas consideredwhen metastasis or disease recurrence occurred orwhen withdrawal of chemotherapy was anticipated. Furthermore, the study respondents suggested that patients and their family members should be included in the EOL discussion. Medical, legal, and ethical knowledge and communication difficulties along with practical issues were revealed as barriers and facilitators for EOL discussion. This study explored various perspectives of oncologists and resident physicians for EOL discussion. Since the Life-Sustaining-Treatment Decision-Making Act will be implemented shortly in Korea, now is the time for oncologists and residents to prepare themselves by acquiring legal knowledge and communication skills. To achieve this, education, training, and clinical tools for healthcare professionals are required.

The rehabilitation of children and adolescents with severe or medically complicated obesity: an ISPED expert opinion document.

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Grugni, Graziano; Licenziati, Maria Rosaria; Valerio, Giuliana; Crinò, Antonino; Maffeis, Claudio; Tanas, Rita; Morino, Giuseppe Stefano

2017-03-01

Severe/medically complicated obesity in childhood, and particularly in adolescence, is a real disability that requires an intensive and continuous approach which should follow the procedures and schedule of rehabilitation medicine. Given the lack of a specific document focusing on children and adolescents, the Childhood Obesity Study Group set out to explore the available evidence for the treatment of severe or medically complicated obesity and to set standards tailored to the specific context of the Italian Health Service. Through a series of meetings and electronic communications, the writing committee (selected from members of the Study Group) selected the key issues, explored the literature and produced a draft document which was submitted to the other experts until the final synthesis was approved by the group. In brief, the following issues were involved: (1) definition and epidemiology; (2) identification of common goals designed to regain functional competence and limit the progression of metabolic and psychological complications; (3) a multi-professional team approach; (4) the care setting. This paper is an expert opinion document on the rehabilitation of severe and medically complicated obesity in children and adolescents produced by experts belonging to the Childhood Obesity Study Group of the Italian Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology (ISPED).

[Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake.part 1. between medicine and justice.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

2017-01-01

Creating medico-legal opinion is a sophisticated investigative, analytical, decision-making and creative process. Forensic medicine specialist in cooperation with clinical medicine consultants, on the basis of evidence analysis, which was gathered during procedures and contained in the acts has to create an objective and essential opinion. This opinion is a vital, very important and irreplaceable proof in every case. Judicial body consults with forensic medicine specialist or specialists if there are circumstances for settlement of which there is a need of classified informations - art. 193 of Penalty Code. Forensic medicine specialists face many difficulties which may have effect on quality, positiveness of opinion, compliance with the deadline, increasing expectancy of judicial body or sides. It is very difficult to find clinical specialists which except their clinical knowledge have basic knowledge about law, the role and duties of an court expert. In this article we discuss creating-opinion problems, role and position of court expert in confrontation with expectations of judicial body and the Justice with particular emphasis on medical mistakes and assessment of medical proceedings. We show the complexity of creating of medical opinions, especially these institutional.

Emotions, Public Opinion, and U.S. Presidential Approval Rates: A 5-Year Analysis of Online Political Discussions

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Gonzalez-Bailon, Sandra; Banchs, Rafael E.; Kaltenbrunner, Andreas

2012-01-01

This article examines how emotional reactions to political events shape public opinion. We analyze political discussions in which people voluntarily engage online to approximate the public agenda: Online discussions offer a natural approach to the salience of political issues and the means to analyze emotional reactions as political events take…

Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blome, Christine

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers.

Science.gov (United States)

Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

2017-01-01

Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

2014-12-01

Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

An expert system for uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

1989-01-01

Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

Heterodoxy, iconoclasm and spuriousness: the limits of novel expert evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Freckelton, Ian

2007-12-01

A difficult issue arises for courts' decision-making at common law and under statutory evidentiary regimes when expert opinions are significantly unorthodox, iconoclastic or methodologically flawed. This editorial analyses the relevant evidentiary principles and the Australian jurisprudence on the subject, giving particular attention to the decisions of the South Australian Supreme Court in R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 143 and R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 316 in which expert opinions about the existence, identifiability and transmissibility of HIV and its relationship to AIDS adduced on behalf of the defence in a criminal trial were found to be seriously wanting. A variety of factors indicative of low probative value in expert opinions are distilled.

Updated clinical indications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe aortic stenosis: expert opinion of the Italian Society of Cardiology and GISE.

Science.gov (United States)

Indolfi, Ciro; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Berti, Sergio; Golino, Paolo; Esposito, Giovanni; Musumeci, Giuseppe; Petronio, Sonia; Tamburino, Corrado; Tarantini, Giuseppe; Ussia, Gianpaolo; Vassanelli, Corrado; Spaccarotella, Carmen; Violini, Roberto; Mercuro, Giuseppe; Romeo, Francesco

2018-05-01

: The introduction of percutaneous treatment of severe aortic stenosis with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains one of the greatest achievements of interventional cardiology. In fact, TAVI emerged as a better option than either medical therapy or balloon aortic valvuloplasty for patients who cannot undergo surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or are at high surgical risk. Recently, increased operator experience and improved device systems have led to a worldwide trend toward the extension of TAVI to low-risk or intermediate-risk patients. In this expert opinion paper, we first discuss the basic pathophysiology of aortic stenosis in different settings then the key results of recent clinical investigations on TAVI in intermediate-risk aortic stenosis patients are summarized. Particular emphasis is placed on the results of the nordic aortic valve intervention, placement of aortic transcatheter valves (PARTNER) 2 and Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Randomized trials. The PARTNER 2 was the first large randomized trial that evaluated the outcome of TAVI in patients at intermediate risk. The PARTNER 2 data demonstrated that TAVI is a feasible and reasonable alternative to surgery in intermediate-risk patients (Society of Thoracic Surgeons 4-8%), especially if they are elderly or frail. There was a significant interaction between TAVI approach and mortality, with transfemoral TAVI showing superiority over SAVR. Moreover, we examine the complementary results of the recently concluded Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation trial. This prospective randomized trial demonstrated that TAVI is comparable with surgery (primary end point 12.6% in the TAVI group vs. 14.0% in the SAVR group) in severe aortic stenosis patients deemed to be at intermediate risk. We review the most relevant clinical evidence deriving from nonrandomized studies and meta-analyses. Altogether, clinical outcome available data

Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

2013-05-01

What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karin Kuster

Full Text Available Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively. Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest to 5 (highest. Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT, Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR. Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF, Enzootic Pneumonia (EP, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS, as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers

Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

2015-01-01

Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

Comparison of expert and nonexpert swimmers' opinions about the value, potency, and activity of four standard swimming strokes and underwater undulatory swimming.

Science.gov (United States)

Collard, L; Oboeuf, A

2009-04-01

Underwater undulatory swimming (UUS) is often perceived to be a nonessential aspect of aquatic propulsion. Given their solid theoretical and practical training in swimming, physical education students should be capable of judging the true value of the "fifth stroke," since it appears to be the most efficient technique in high level, competitive swimming. To compare opinions and connotations associated with the stroke and the four official strokes (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, and crawl), 198 students (32 of whom were expert swimmers; M age = 20.6 yr., SD = 1.2), were surveyed using the semantic differential of Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum. Although answers of expert and nonexpert swimmers differed significantly (p stroke was less attractive, less powerful, and less rapid than the four surface strokes (d = 2.88 for the expert swimmers). Putting one arm in front of the other and repeating the sequence still remains the most solidly held representation of "the right way" to swim. However, the high observed standard deviations for the underwater undulatory stimulus (SD > or = 1.1 with SD max = 3 for the expert swimmers) attests to the view being less strongly held by swimming specialists.

Expert panel on additional cross subsidisation. Considering arguments and providing expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faber, J.; Nelissen, D.; Lowe, S.; Mason, A.

2007-10-01

In the period end 2005 till September 2006 MVA London in cooperation with SEO Amsterdam was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Transport to perform an analysis of the economic and competition effects of the different proposals from the European Commission to include aviation in the European Emission Trading System (ETS). Roughly at the same time CE Delft was commissioned to study the overall impacts of this inclusion for the European Commission. Both studies considered the possibility that inclusion of aviation in the ETS could lead to the distortion of competition between airlines through cross-subsidisation. The studies concluded differently on additional possibilities for cross-subsidisation. As a result, both parties have different views on the possible distortion of the competitive market on routes where EU-based carriers compete directly with carriers based outside the EU. CE Delft concluded that 'none of the policy options considered in this study will significantly damage the competitive position of EU airlines relative to non-EU airlines'. In contrast, MVA and SEO (2006) concluded that 'effective cross-subsidisation by non-EU carriers in the Departing EU scope of the ETS appears to be more probable than cross-subsidisation by EU network carriers in the Intra-EU scope of the ETS'. In July 2007, the Dutch Ministry of Transport, DGTL commissioned CE Delft, MVA and SEO to study the causes for their different opinions and to see whether a further investigation could shed more light on the likelihood of additional cross-subsidisation. Formally, the aim of the work currently carried out is: (1) To determine whether it is possible to assess the impacts on the competitive market between EU based carriers and non-EU based carriers based on sound economic reasoning and analysis of empirical data; and, if so, (2) to determine whether the inclusion of aviation in ETS as proposed by the European Commission will offer non-EU airlines the opportunity to increase their

Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

Science.gov (United States)

Weed, Roger O.

2000-01-01

This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

Veterinary Expert Opinion on Potential Drivers and Opportunities for Changing Antimicrobial Usage Practices in Livestock in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís P. Carmo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Reducing antimicrobial use (AMU in livestock is requested by Public Health authorities. Ideally, this should be achieved without jeopardizing production output or animal health and welfare. Thus, efficient measures must be identified and developed to target drivers of AMU. Veterinarians play a central role in the identification and implementation of such efficient interventions. Sixty-seven veterinarians with expertise in livestock production in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland participated in an expert opinion study aimed at investigating experiences and opinions of veterinarians about the driving forces and practices related to AMU in the main livestock sectors (broiler, dairy cattle, fattening/veal calf, and pig industry of the aforementioned countries. Opinions on potential factors influencing the choice of antimicrobials and opportunities to reduce AMU were collected. Antibiograms are seldom used, mainly due to the time lag between testing and obtaining the results. The perceived percentage of treatment failures varied between countries and livestock sectors; however, little changes were reported over time (2005−2015. The animal health problems of each livestock sector most frequently leading to AMU did not vary substantially between countries. Mandatory official interventions (i.e., binding measures applied by national or international authorities were highlighted as having the biggest impact on AMU. There was a variation in the experts’ opinion regarding feasibility and impact of interventions both between countries and livestock sectors. Nevertheless, improved biosecurity and education of veterinarians frequently received high scores. Most veterinarians believed that AMU can be reduced. The median potential reduction estimates varied from 1% in Swiss broilers to 50% in Portuguese broilers and veal/fattening calves in all countries. We hypothesize that the differences in views could be related to disease epidemiology, animal

Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tyler D. Eddy

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation, compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Eddy, Tyler D; Cheung, William W L; Bruno, John F

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the 'shifting baseline syndrome'. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

2011-01-01

A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

Quantification of informed opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmuson, D.M.

1985-01-01

The objective of this session, Quantification of Informed Opinion, is to provide the statistician with a better understanding of this important area. The NRC uses informed opinion, sometimes called engineering judgment or subjective judgment, in many areas. Sometimes informed opinion is the only source of information that exists, especially in phenomenological areas, such as steam explosions, where experiments are costly and phenomena are very difficult to measure. There are many degrees of informed opinion. These vary from the weatherman who makes predictions concerning relatively high probability events with a large data base to the phenomenological expert who must use his intuition tempered with basic knowledge and little or no measured data to predict the behavior of events with a low probability of occurrence. The first paper in this session provides the reader with an overview of the subject area. The second paper provides some aspects that must be considered in the collection of informed opinion to improve the quality of the information. The final paper contains an example of the use of informed opinion in the area of seismic hazard characterization. These papers should be useful to researchers and statisticians who need to collect and use informed opinion in their work

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

2017-01-01

Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30-40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention.

From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendelson, Danuta

2012-12-01

In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness' testimony...

Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICHERSU Iulian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

2001-01-01

A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

1990-01-01

A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

Treatment of severe psoriasis in children: recommendations of an Italian expert group.

Science.gov (United States)

Fortina, Anna Belloni; Bardazzi, Federico; Berti, Samantha; Carnevale, Claudia; Di Lernia, Vito; El Hachem, Maya; Neri, Iria; Gelmetti, Carlo Mario; Lora, Viviana; Mazzatenta, Carlo; Milioto, Mirella; Moretta, Gaia; Patrizi, Annalisa; Peris, Ketty; Villani, Alberto

2017-10-01

This article provides comprehensive recommendations for the systemic treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis based on evidence obtained from a systematic review of the literature and the consensus opinion of expert dermatologists and pediatricians. For each systemic treatment, the grade of recommendation (A, B, C) based on the treatment's approval by the European Medicines Agency for childhood psoriasis and the experts' opinions is discussed. The grade of recommendation for narrow-band-ultraviolet B phototherapy, cyclosporine, and retinoids is C, while that for methotrexate is C/B. The use of adalimumab, etanercept, and ustekinumab has a grade A recommendation. No conventional systemic treatments are approved for pediatric psoriasis. Adalimumab is approved by the European Medicines Agency as a first-line treatment for severe chronic plaque psoriasis in children (≥ 4 years old) and adolescents. Etanercept and ustekinumab are approved as second-line therapy in children ≥ 6 and ≥ 12 years, respectively. A treatment algorithm as well as practical tools (i.e., tabular summaries of differential diagnoses, treatment mechanism of actions, dosing regimens, control parameters) are provided to assist in therapeutic reasoning and decision-making for individual patients. These treatment recommendations are endorsed by major Italian Pediatric and Dermatology Societies. What is Known: • Guidelines for the treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis are lacking and most traditional systemic treatments are not approved for use in young patients. Although there has been decades of experience with some of the traditional agents such as phototherapy, acitretin, and cyclosporine in children, there are no RCTs on their pediatric use while RCTs investigating new biologic agents have been performed. What is New: • In this manuscript, an Italian multidisciplinary team of experts focused on treatment recommendations for severe forms of psoriasis in children based on an up

Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

2017-05-06

This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70-80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70-80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the 'already dispensed here' pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an 'action taken' documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Involvement of experts in nuclear licensing and supervisory procedures who are known for their critical attitude towards nuclear technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schirp, W.

1996-01-01

The article discusses legal and procedural aspects in the context of expert opinions demanded by the supervisory and licensing authorities of nuclear power plants, and the role and activities of experts known for their critical approach to nuclear electricity generation. The aspects addressed are: Reasons to break the dominance of ''established'' experts who in general are members of the TUeV organisations (technical control boards), reasons for challenging motions such as suspicion of prejudice or insufficient expertise, order by the supervisory authority to take a ''dual approach'' and involve two experts for a task, as well as the relevant administrative and legal procedures. (orig./CB) [de

Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Rath, Ehud; Sharfman, Zachary T; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

2017-01-01

The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3-8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions.

School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

Science.gov (United States)

Fickes, Michael

2001-01-01

Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolger, Donnacha; Houlding, Brett

2017-01-01

Linear opinion pools are a common method for combining a set of distinct opinions into a single succinct opinion, often to be used in a decision making task. In this paper we consider a method, termed the Plug-in approach, for determining the weights to be assigned in this linear pool, in a manner that can be deemed as rational in some sense, while incorporating multiple forms of learning over time into its process. The environment that we consider is one in which every source in the pool is herself a decision maker (DM), in contrast to the more common setting in which expert judgments are amalgamated for use by a single DM. We discuss a simulation study that was conducted to show the merits of our technique, and demonstrate how theoretical probabilistic arguments can be used to exactly quantify the probability of this technique being superior (in terms of a probability density metric) to a set of alternatives. Illustrations are given of simulated proportions converging to these true probabilities in a range of commonly used distributional cases. - Highlights: • A novel context for combination of expert opinion is provided. • A dynamic reliability assessment method is stated, justified by properties and a data study. • The theoretical grounding underlying the data-driven justification is explored. • We conclude with areas for expansion and further relevant research.

The effect of popular exemplars and expert account base-rate information on perceived public opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lefevere, J.; Walgrave, S.; de Swert, K.

2012-01-01

How people perceive public opinion is important because it affects their willingness to express themselves. This paper investigates whether two different portrayals of public opinion in the TV news affect people’s perception of public opinion. We use an experimental design in which roughly one

Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

2015-01-01

Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction.

[Medical data security in medico-legal opinioning].

Science.gov (United States)

Susło, Robert; Swiatek, Barbara

2005-01-01

Medical data security can be approached in medico-legal opinioning in three main situations: security of medical data, on which the opinion should be based, opinioning itself and whether the medical data security was properly ensured and ensuring medical data security during medico-legal opinion giving. The importance of medical data security, during collecting, processing and storing, as well in medical as in legal institutions, is of major importance for the possibility of providing a proper medico-legal opinion. Theoretically speeking, it is possible to give a proper medico-legal opinion using incorrect data, but the possibility is low. When the expert is given improper, unreadable, incomplete or even bogus in part or in the whole medical data it is extremely possible, that he fails in giving his opinion. The term "medical data" was defined and subsequently there was a brief review of medical data storing methods made and specific threats bound with them, based on modern literature. The authors also pointed out possible methods of preventing the threats. They listed Polish as well as international regulations and laws concerning the problem, accenting the importance of preserving medical data for the purposes of medico-legal opinioning.

Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

Science.gov (United States)

Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

2017-06-01

There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

1984-11-01

The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts

Study on advanced nuclear power plants expert evaluation system in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Qi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Zhou Zhiwei; Zhu Shutang; Ren Junsheng; Yang Mengjia; Gu Junyang

2005-01-01

Based on current status and developing trend of nuclear power plant technology, an evaluation software system is developed to assess advanced NPPs systematically according to a set of pre-established evaluation indices. The selection and classification of the indices, the determination of their weighting factors in applying AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method are discussed. The Fuzzy Comprehensive method and the Fuzzy Borda Number method are studied in detail. The original input data required by the evaluation system are deduced from the expert survey sheets Evaluation results with common significance of public attraction are discussed and analyzed according to the opinions of different experts grouped by age, profession and working expertise etc. The evaluation system is computer network based with high flexible and user friendly human-machine interface on which it is easy to manipulate and update the evaluation system, and to display evaluation results as well. (author)

Clinical relevance of molecular diagnostics in gastrointestinal (GI) cancer: European Society of Digestive Oncology (ESDO) expert discussion and recommendations from the 17th European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO)/World Congress on Gastrointestinal Cancer, Barcelona.

Science.gov (United States)

Baraniskin, Alexander; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc; Wyrwicz, Lucjan; Guller, Ulrich; Wasan, Harpreet S; Matysiak-Budnik, Tamara; Gruenberger, Thomas; Ducreux, Michel; Carneiro, Fatima; Van Cutsem, Eric; Seufferlein, Thomas; Schmiegel, Wolff

2017-11-01

In the epoch of precision medicine and personalised oncology, which aims to deliver the right treatment to the right patient, molecular genetic biomarkers are a topic of growing interest. The aim of this expert discussion and position paper is to review the current status of various molecular tests for gastrointestinal (GI) cancers and especially considering their significance for the clinical routine use. Opinion leaders and experts from diverse nationalities selected on scientific merit were asked to answer to a prepared set of questions about the current status of molecular diagnostics in different GI cancers. All answers were then discussed during a plenary session and reported here in providing a well-balanced reflection of both clinical expertise and updated evidence-based medicine. Preselected molecular genetic biomarkers that are described and disputed in the current medical literature in different GI cancers were debated, and recommendations for clinical routine practice were made whenever possible. Furthermore, the preanalytical variations were commented and proposals for quality controls of biospecimens were made. The current article summarises the recommendations of the expert committee regarding prognostic and predictive molecular genetic biomarkers in different entities of GI cancers. The briefly and comprehensively formulated guidelines should assist clinicians in the process of decision making in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Gabbay, Michael

Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

2016-01-01

The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo , but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

Seismic hazard characterization of 69 nuclear plant sites east of the Rocky Mountains: Results and discussion for the Batch 4 sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernreuter, D.L.; Savy, J.B.; Mensing, R.W.; Chen, J.C.

1989-01-01

The EUS Seismic Hazard Characterization Project (SHC) is the outgrowth of an earlier study performed as part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Systematic Evaluation Program (SEP). The objectives of the SHC were: (1) to develop a seismic hazard characterization methodology for the region east of the Rocky Mountains (EUS), and (2) the application of the methodology to 69 site locations, some of them with several local soil conditions. The method developed uses expert opinions to obtain the input to the analyses. An important aspect of the elicitation of the expert opinion process was the holding of two feedback meetings with all the experts in order to finalize the methodology and the input data bases. The hazard estimates are reported in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damping velocity response spectra (PSV). A total of eight volumes make up this report which contains a thorough description of the methodology, the expert opinion's elicitation process, the input data base as well as a discussion, comparison and summary volume (Volume 6). Consistent with previous analyses, this study finds that there are large uncertainties associated with the estimates of seismic hazard in the EUS, and it identifies the ground motion modeling as the prime contributor to those uncertainties. This document, Volume 5, provides the seismic hazard estimates for the 17 sites in ''Batch 4''

Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elham Dadgar

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

Factors influencing continuing professional development : A Delphi study among nursing experts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brekelmans, G.B.; Poell, R.F.; van Wijk, K.

2013-01-01

Purpose The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing

Effects of CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings 2008. Expert opinion; Effekte des CO{sub 2}-Gebaeudesanierungsprogramms 2008. Gutachten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clausnitzer, Klaus-Dieter; Gabriel, Juergen; Eilmes, Sabine [Bremer Energie-Institut, Bremen (Germany); Diefenbach, Nikolaus; Loga, Tobias [Institut Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Wosniok, Werner [Bremen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Statistik

2008-07-01

The climate protection, the securing of the power supply as well as the enabling of payable energy costs belong to the central tasks to the policy. In the year 2006, the working group consisting of the Bremen Energie Institute (Bremen, Federal Republic of Energy), Institute Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH (Darmstadt, Federal Republic of Germany) and the Institute for Statistics of the University of Bremen (Bremen, Federal Republic of Germany) was ordered to develop a model for the estimation of the positive effects of the CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings according to the reduction of CO{sub 2}, conservation of final energy, employment, progress in modernization and saving of heating cost. In the expert opinion under consideration, the influences are stated for the case of loan and grant for the year 2008.

Concept of expert system for modal split in transportation planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popović Maja M.

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a concept of expert system based on the survey of experts' opinions and their experience concerning relations in modal split, on the basis of parameters of transport system demand and transport supply, defined through PT travel time and city size, i.e. mean trip length. This expert system could be of use both to experts and less experienced planners who could apply the knowledge contained in this expert system for further improvement, on operational as well as on strategic level.

The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

1998-01-01

When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Funk

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

In search of an integral conceptual definition of frailty: opinions of experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Gobbens, Robbert J J; Luijkx, Katrien G; Wijnen-Sponselee, Maria Th; Schols, Jos M G A

2010-06-01

There are many different conceptual definitions of frailty in circulation. Most of these definitions focus mainly on physical problems affecting older people. Only a few also draw attention to other domains of human functioning such as the psychological domain. The authors of this article fear that this could lead to fragmentation of care for frail older people. The aim is to develop an integral conceptual definition of frailty that starts from the premise of a holistic view of the person. To achieve this, a literature search was carried out. Thereafter a group of experts (N=20) were consulted, both verbally during 2 expert meetings and via a written questionnaire. These experts were asked which existing conceptual definition of frailty places most stress on the integral functioning of older people. The experts expressed a clear preference for one of the conceptual definitions. The result of the literature search and the consultation with the experts led to a new integral conceptual definition of frailty. The conceptual definition is intended to offer a framework for an operational definition of frailty for identifying frail older people. Copyright 2010 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structured expert elicitation about Listeria monocytogenes cross-contamination in the environment of retail deli operations in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoelzer, Karin; Oliver, Haley F; Kohl, Larry R; Hollingsworth, Jill; Wells, Martin T; Wiedmann, Martin

2012-07-01

Listeria monocytogenes is among the foodborne pathogens with the highest death toll in the United States. Ready-to-eat foods contaminated at retail are an important source of infection. Environmental sites in retail deli operations can be contaminated. However, commonly contaminated sites are unlikely to come into direct contact with food and the public health relevance of environmental contamination has remained unclear. To identify environmental sites that may pose a considerable cross-contamination risk, to elucidate potential transmission pathways, and to identify knowledge gaps, we performed a structured expert elicitation of 41 experts from state regulatory agencies and the food retail industry with practical experience in retail deli operations. Following the "Delphi" method, the elicitation was performed in three consecutive steps: questionnaire, review and discussion of results, second questionnaire. Hands and gloves were identified as important potential contamination sources. However, bacterial transfers to and from hands or gloves represented a major data gap. Experts agreed about transfer probabilities from cutting boards, scales, deli cases, and deli preparation sinks to product, and about transfer probabilities from floor drains, walk-in cooler floors, and knife racks to food contact surfaces. Comparison of experts' opinions to observational data revealed a tendency among experts with certain demographic characteristics and professional opinions to overestimate prevalence. Experts' votes clearly clustered into separate groups not defined by place of employment, even though industry experts may have been somewhat overrepresented in one cluster. Overall, our study demonstrates the value and caveats of expert elicitation to identify data gaps and prioritize research efforts. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Zaleskiewicz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians. However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this

Patriotic Education of Youth in Russia: Problems, Opinions, Expert Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Жанна Васильевна Пузанова

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Patriotism is designated as a national idea in Russia; nowadays the questions the relevance of patriotic education of the most reactive of social groups - young people - is especially acute. Round table in the format of focus groups with 20 experts working with young people, among them - professors, teachers, veterans, employees public authorities to work with youth was held on the 27th of May 2016 on the basis of the museum-panorama “Battle of Stalingrad” in Volgograd, with the assistance of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. During the two-hour round table were discussed issues of civil and patriotic education of youth, including the theme - “Ultrapatriotizm-Patriotism-pseudo-patriotism” (ratio of the concepts, their similarities and differences, manifestations in modern Russian society among young people, “Today's youth and moral conflicts” (spiritually-moral development of today's youth, its values, “infantilism - the scourge of modern youth?” (problem of infantilism as a barrier in the way of civic and patriotic education, “Does extremist views attractive for young people?” (the attitude of youth to extremism and terrorism, effective countermeasures of youth involvement in extremist groups.

An expert display system and nuclear power plant control rooms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1988-01-01

An expert display system controls automatically the display of segments on a cathode ray tube's screen to form an image of plant operations. The image consists of an icon of: 1) the process (heat engine cycle), 2) plant control systems, and 3) safety systems. A set of data-driven, forward-chaining computer stored rules control the display of segments. As plant operation changes, measured plant data are processed through the rules, and the results control the deletion and addition of segments to the display format. The icon contains information needed by control rooms operators to monitor plant operations. One example of an expert display is illustrated for the operator's task of monitoring leakage from a safety valve in a steam line of a boiling water reactor (BWR). In another example, the use of an expert display to monitor plant operations during pre-trip, trip, and post-trip operations is discussed as a universal display. The viewpoints and opinions expressed herein are the author's personal ones, and they are not to be interpreted as Nuclear Regulatory Commission criteria, requirements, or guidelines

Curriculum Reform in 3D: A Panel of Experts Discuss the New HPE Curriculum in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Hickey, Chris; Kirk, David; Macdonald, Doune; Penney, Dawn

2014-01-01

This paper was developed at the request of the Organising Committee for the 27th Australian Council for Health, Physical Education and Recreation International Conference, in Melbourne, 2013. Its genesis was as a feature forum, wherein a panel of curriculum experts were bought together to discuss the emergence of the Australian Health and Physical…

Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

Science.gov (United States)

West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

2017-09-01

The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: thiagoreis@usp.b, E-mail: barroso@ipen.b, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-07-01

This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo

2011-01-01

This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

2017-01-01

by aggregating 25 primarily animal-based measurements based on 38 experts opinion on inter-measurement and inter-stage weights. AWIs were calculated on animal level as the weighted sums of prevalence of the measurements, and were calculated for each of the six stages: pick-up pen, loading, transport, unloading......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage......, this work has suggested a potential model for the aggregation of animal welfare measurements into animal welfare indexes for slaughter pigs on the day of slaughter. Further validation may allow simple comparison of the level of welfare between lorries, days, abattoirs etc. and may be used for future...

[Discussion on professor SHAO Jing-Ming's academic opinion of focusing spirit].

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Qiao-Lin; Gao, Xi-Yan; Shao, Su-Ju; Shao, Su-Xia; Hu, Bin

2014-06-01

During professor SHAO Jing-ming's academic research and medical practice, his academic opinion of focusing spirit is gradually developed. In terms of nurturing the spirit, attention should be paid on persistence as well as everyday health maintenance and exercise to nurture the spirit of physician. In terms of clinical diagnosis and treatment, patients' psychology, employment and life status should be observed and experienced, which could bring more methods to take essential care of patients' spirit. The treatment should work with psychological counseling, advocating that based on patients' qi and spirit, various forms of treatment methods should be properly used, such as acupuncture or moxibustion or combination of acupuncture and medicine, along with simple acupoint selection and harmony medication. Before clinical treatment of acupuncture, calming the mind is critically emphasized to make a clear diagnosis. During the acupuncture, calming and focusing the mind is necessary as well as emphasizing the details, so acupuncture could be integrated with Chi Gong to create a new warming-sensation technique. In a word, the academic opinion of focusing spirit is shedding an inspiring light upon further study.

Defining Sustainable Universities Following Public Opinion Formation Process

Science.gov (United States)

Zaptcioglu Celikdemir, Deniz; Gunay, Gonca; Katrinli, Alev; Penbek Alpbaz, Sebnem

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to define the sustainable university in Turkey, by considering perspectives of various stakeholders such as experts, intellectual, public, political parties and media using public opinion formation analysis. The paper aims to re-define the "sustainable university" with all dimensions including…

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

2015-01-01

Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

Public opinions and antinuclear contestations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silveira, P.R.N. da

1978-01-01

With the aim of demonstrating the importance of public opinion in the development of a nuclear program, a historical analysis of the different forms of anti-technological reactions is shown, starting with a study of the general aspects of mass communication and public opinion. The world-wide communication strategy adopted in the implantation of nuclear programs is discussed and, finally, the nuclear energy issue and public opinion in Brazil are analysed. (F.E.) [pt

Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

2017-08-01

The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

Recent advances in acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children and adolescents: an expert panel discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

Asselin, Barbara L; Gaynon, Paul; Whitlock, James A

2013-12-01

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common form of childhood leukemia, representing 75% to 80% of cases of acute leukemia among children. Dramatic improvements in the cure rates and survival outcomes for children with ALL have been seen over the past several decades; currently the 5-year survival rate for childhood ALL is more than 80%. These improvements have come about because of advances in the understanding of the molecular genetics and pathogenesis of the disease, incorporation of risk-adapted therapy, and the advent of new targeted agents. Scientific advances have provided new insights into leukemogenesis, drug resistance, and host pharmacogenomics, identified novel subtypes of leukemia, and suggested potential targets for therapy. At the same time novel monoclonal antibodies, small molecule inhibitors, chemotherapeutics, and cell-based treatment strategies have been developed and investigated. In this article, experts will discuss some of the current challenges and future directions in the treatment of pediatric ALL. The authors will offer expert guidance to practicing oncologists on how to best incorporate newer treatment approaches into the care of children and adolescents with ALL. The most important ongoing clinical trials in the area will also be reviewed.

Energy policy decision making and public opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstein, L.

1989-09-01

By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter-experts

Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

2008-01-01

The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

Science.gov (United States)

Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

2011-01-01

REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

Spallation Neutron Source Availability Top-Down Apportionment Using Characteristic Factors and Expert Opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haire, M.J.; Schryver, J.C.

1999-01-01

Apportionment is the assignment of top-level requirements to lower tier elements of the overall facility. A method for apportioning overall facility availability requirements among systems and subsystems is presented. Characteristics that influence equipment reliability and maintainability are discussed. Experts, using engineering judgment, scored each characteristic for each system whose availability design goal is to be established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to produce a set of weighted rankings for each characteristic for each alternative system. A mathematical model is derived which incorporates these weighting factors. The method imposes higher availability requirements on those systems in which an incremental increase in availability is easier to achieve, and lower availability requirements where greater availability is more difficult and costly. An example is given of applying this top-down apportionment methodology to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility

Radioecological experts' opinions on waste water of Esensham nuclear power plant. Final report of a part of the project: Pollution at the place of work and in the Lower Weser industrialized region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bliefert, M.; Marks, R.; Meier, A.; Wallenschus, M.

1978-01-01

In December 1977, there was a public hearing by the Oldenburg administrative court where, among others, evidence was heard on whether the experts' opinions on the discharge of liquid radioactive waste into the river Weser, for which licence has already been granted, contain some major errors so that the licences already granted would have to be revoked. This part of the long and tedious administrative lawsuit is reported. (orig.) [de

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

2010-02-01

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

Opinions and statements of the experts who studied the framework conditions of abandonment of nuclear power - presented by the OeTV Executive Board (Public Services and Transport Workers' Union)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-10-01

This second volume contains five annexes to the first volume, presenting in Annex 1 data, facts, tables and comments on the following topics: Electricity demand and supplies; possibilities of reducing electricity demand; alternative energy sources for electricity generation to replace the nuclear energy source; electricity imports; the costs arising from abandonment of nuclear power; environmental burdens and hazards of a power industry with or without nuclear energy. Annex 2 presents terms and definitions, and the remaining three annexes contain literature lists of the expert opinions. (HSCH) [de

Axelrod model: accepting or discussing

Science.gov (United States)

Dybiec, Bartlomiej; Mitarai, Namiko; Sneppen, Kim

2012-10-01

Agents building social systems are characterized by complex states, and interactions among individuals can align their opinions. The Axelrod model describes how local interactions can result in emergence of cultural domains. We propose two variants of the Axelrod model where local consensus is reached either by listening and accepting one of neighbors' opinion or two agents discuss their opinion and achieve an agreement with mixed opinions. We show that the local agreement rule affects the character of the transition between the single culture and the multiculture regimes.

An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damir Dobrinić

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and investigates the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. This research focuses mainly on understanding the potential and effectiveness of the use of mobile phones as a promotional medium, but we also try to recognize the level of concern of marketing experts associated with spam, relating to privacy intrusion and ethics components in m-advertising. Privacy and ethics concerns could create resistance to the adoption of m-advertising. Media selection becomes the most critical factor for the success of a promotional and advertising marketing campaign. Croatian experts still consider TV or newspapers the best way to reach a large number of potential consumers, but what are their expectations towards mobile advertising? To answer this question, we built a model that links attitudes towards advertising via classical media to the intention to use m-advertising.

Increasing uptake of comparative effectiveness and patient-centered outcomes research among stakeholders: insights from conference discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Ernest; Harrington, Rachel; Alexander, G Caleb; Saha, Soumi; Oehrlein, Elisabeth; Perfetto, Eleanor M

2018-02-01

The goal of comparative effectiveness research (CER) and patient-centered outcomes research (PCOR) is to improve health outcomes by providing stakeholders with evidence directly relevant to decision making. In January 2017, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association Foundation, alongside the Academy for Managed Care Pharmacy, organized a conference aimed at engaging experts and opinion leaders representing clinicians, patients and payers to identify and discuss barriers and strategies to enhancing uptake and use of CER/PCOR. This report summarizes the conference discussion in the following sections: preconference survey; summary of barriers and strategies to the uptake of CER/PCOR identified by conference attendees; and future perspectives on the field.

Social influence and the collective dynamics of opinion formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E; Analytis, Pantelis P; Neth, Hansjörg

2013-01-01

Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

OPINION GIVING SERVICES AS A SOURCE OF CONSUMER INFORMATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joanna Wyrwisz

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article is to determine the place and role of opinion giving services in consumer behaviours. The discussion is conducted around the thesis saying that in the information society, opinion giving services constitute an important source of information for consumers in the process of selecting and purchasing both products and services. In the article the research approach based on the theoretical and empirical examinations was presented. The discussion starts with presenting a defi nition and types of opinion giving services which constitute the base for the characteristics of activities and usefulness of web portals collecting consumers opinions. The use of opinion giving services provided in the purchase process was evaluated. An essential interest in other consumers opinions, placed in Internet, was observed together with perceiving them as credible. Positive assessment of the functionality of opinion giving services was noticed.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

2001-05-01

In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

The definition and diagnosis of cold hypersensitivity in the hands and feet: Finding from the experts survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Kwang-Ho; Jeong, Young-Seok; Go, Ho-Yeon; Sun, Seung-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hoon; Jung, Ki-Yong; Song, Yun-Kyung; Ko, Seong-Gyu; Choi, You-Kyung; Park, Jong-Hyeong; Lee, Siwoo; Lee, Youngseop; Jeon, Chan-Yong

2018-03-01

Cold hypersensitivity in the hands and feet (CHHF) is a symptom patients usually feel cold in their hands and feet, but not dealt with a disease in western medicine. However, it is often appealed by patients at a clinic of Korean medicine (KM), considered to be a sort of key diagnostic indicator, and actively treated by physicians. Nevertheless, there is no standardized diagnostic definition for CHHF. Therefore, we surveyed KM experts' opinions to address the clinical definition, diagnostic criteria, and other relevant things on CHHF. We developed a survey to assess the definition, diagnosis, causes, and accompanying symptoms on CHHF. 31 experts who work at specialized university hospitals affiliated with KM hospitals consented to participation. Experts responded to survey questions by selecting multiple-choice answers or stating their opinions. Vast majority of experts (83.8%) agreed with our definition on CHHF ("a feeling of cold as a symptom; that one's hands or feet become colder than those of average people in temperatures that are not normally perceived as cold"). 77.4% of experts considered subjective symptoms on CHHF were more important than medical instrument results. Constitution or genetic factors (87.1%) and stress (64.5%) were the most common causes reported for CHHF. This study offers an expert consensus regarding the themes, opinions, and experiences of practitioners with CHHF. Our results underscore the need for standardized definitions and diagnostic criteria for CHHF.

Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hora, Stephen

2002-09-01

The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches.

Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hora, Stephen

2002-09-01

The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches

Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

2018-05-29

reflect the lack of consistent evidence on the proposed policy options. This suggests that experts' opinions should be framed within strengthened inclusive and "evidence-informed deliberative processes" where the trade-offs along the 3 dimensions of UHC-extending the population covered against health hazards, expanding the range of services and benefits covered, and reducing out-of-pocket expenditures-can be discussed in a transparent and contextualized setting. © Paul et al.

Ask the experts how to treat individuals with spatial neglect: a survey study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Peii; Pitteri, Marco; Gillen, Glen; Ayyala, Harsha

2017-07-11

Spatial neglect (SN) impedes rehabilitation success and leaves long-term consequences. We asked experts to provide their opinions in addressing SN by scenario (ideal vs. reality) and by recovery phase (earliest, acute, subacute, and chronic). Experts were individuals who have assessed or treated patients with SN clinically. This study was conducted using an anonymous survey on the Internet with 189 responders over 3 months. Located in 23 different countries, 127 experts of seven disciplines were included (occupational therapy, physical therapy, nursing, speech and language pathology or therapy, neurology, physical medicine and rehabilitation, and psychology or neuropsychology). Comparing the two scenarios, more treatments were selected in the ideal than in the reality scenario for all recovery phases except for the chronic phase. In both scenarios, (1) more treatments were selected in acute and subacute phases than in earliest or chronic phases, (2) less experienced experts selected diverse treatment options more often, and (3) highly experienced experts were more likely to provide their reasons of treatment selection, suggestions of treatment delivery methods, and other insights. Finally, 83.7% reported obstacles in treating SN. Experts' treatment selections are consistent with current evidence and practice guidelines. Recognizing the limitation of evidence, their opinions may help generate ideas in various topics (e.g., dosing, integrative intervention, and treatment implementation) to be examined in future studies. Implications for Rehabilitation Clinicians with experience in treating people with spatial neglect (i.e., experts as defined in the present study) recognized the limitation of evidence but nonetheless suggested specific treatments by recovery phase. In both the reality and ideal scenarios, experts included visual scanning, active limb activation, and sustained attention training in the top-five selections. Prism adaptation was in the top

Basic foundations of phthisiology professionalization in the assessment of experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alenin P.N.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the work is to study the conditions and stereotypes that determine the process of professionalization in the field of phthisiology. The main factors have been analyzed that characterize the situation of ТВ as a public health sphere in Russia. Material and Methods. Applying qualitative research strategy — semi-structured expert interviews. The basis of the study is the expert opinion of practitioners in the field of ТВ: ТВ service specialists of Saratov Region (Regional Clinical ТВ Dispensary in Saratov and lecturers of the department of Phthisiopulmonology of Saratov State Medical University n.a. V. I. Razumovsky (n=10. Results. The article presents research materials, aimed at identifying the specifics of the basic foundations of national ТВ professionalization. The main factors of vocational choice include a personal interest in the profession, value preferences, information availability, safety and the risk of occupational diseases, the contingent of patients. Conclusion. On the basis of expert opinion the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors to assess ТВ status of the professional medical community, as well as students — physicians in the context of their future professional socialization have been described.

Expert Recommendations on Treating Psoriasis in Special Circumstances (Part II).

Science.gov (United States)

Carrascosa, J M; Galán, M; de Lucas, R; Pérez-Ferriols, A; Ribera, M; Yanguas, I

2016-11-01

There is insufficient information on how best to treat moderate to severe psoriasis in difficult clinical circumstances. We considered 5 areas where there is conflicting or insufficient evidence: pediatric psoriasis, risk of infection in patients being treated with biologics, psoriasis in difficult locations, biologic drug survival, and impact of disease on quality of life. Following discussion of the issues by an expert panel of dermatologists specialized in the management of psoriasis, participants answered a questionnaire survey according to the Delphi method. Consensus was reached on 66 (70.9%) of the 93 items analyzed; the experts agreed with 49 statements and disagreed with 17. It was agreed that body mass index, metabolic comorbidities, and quality of life should be monitored in children with psoriasis. The experts also agreed that the most appropriate systemic treatment for this age group was methotrexate, while the most appropriate biologic treatment was etanercept. Although it was recognized that the available evidence was inconsistent and difficult to extrapolate, the panel agreed that biologic drug survival could be increased by flexible, individualized dosing regimens, continuous treatment, and combination therapies. Finally, consensus was reached on using the Dermatology Quality of Life Index to assess treatment effectiveness and aid decision-making in clinical practice. The structured opinion of experts guides decision-making regarding aspects of clinical practice for which there is incomplete or conflicting information. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

More than 30 years of opinion of French people on nuclear risks - Special release of the 2012 IRSN opinion survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

2013-01-01

Illustrated by many graphs and tables, this report comments and discusses the evolution of opinion surveys performed in France on the perception of nuclear risks through thirty annual IRSN opinion surveys. It appears that the opinion on nuclear is rather steady, and that French people have a rather rational perception of risk hierarchy. The first part outlines that unemployment is the main concern for French people, and that environmental concerns depend on current events. The second part analyses the perception of the nuclear risk with respect to other societal concerns and to other risks, and discusses the evolution of opinion from a quantitative to a qualitative sensitivity. The third part addresses the representations people have of nuclear activities and how they challenge the reality: perception of nuclear plants and of radioactive wastes, fear of a serious accident. The last part deals with issues related to responsibilities, abilities and governance: how actors of nuclear risk management are perceived, and expectations in terms of transparency and opinion plurality

Communication skills training in oncology: a position paper based on a consensus meeting among European experts in 2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Stiefel, F; Barth, J; Bensing, J; Fallowfield, L; Jost, L; Razavi, D; Kiss, A

2010-02-01

Communication in cancer care has become a major topic of interest. Since there is evidence that ineffective communication affects both patients and oncology clinicians (physicians and nurses), so-called communication skills trainings (CSTs) have been developed over the last decade. While these trainings have been demonstrated to be effective, there is an important heterogeneity with regard to implementation and with regard to evidence of different aspects of CST. In order to review and discuss the scientific literature on CST in oncology and to formulate recommendations, the Swiss Cancer League has organised a consensus meeting with European opinion leaders and experts in the field of CST, as well as oncology clinicians, representatives of oncology societies and patient organisations. On the basis of a systematic review and a meta-analysis, recommendations have been developed and agreed upon. Recommendations address (i) the setting, objectives and participants of CST, (ii) its content and pedagogic tools, (iii) organisational aspects, (iv) outcome and (v) future directions and research. This consensus meeting, on the basis of European expert opinions and a systematic review and meta-analysis, defines key elements for the current provision and future development and evaluation of CST in oncology.

Application of expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basden, A

1983-11-01

This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

2009-01-01

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1987-04-01

Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

THE LAWYER`S OPINION IN MODERN CIVIL LAW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Evgenyevna Dubovaya

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose to define value of freedom and fight of opinions, views and lawyer’s positions in development of science of civil law.Methodology theoretical analysis, inductive and deductive methods.Results It is established that fight of opinions, collision of various positions allows to understand more deeply the discussed problem, to come nearer to truth. So, free expression of opinions is the engine of development of civil law.Practical implications introduction in educational process on disciplines of civil jurisprudence, further research of fight of opinions in civil law.Tendencies of the present stage of development of legal system are characterized by aspiration to fix in the Russian legal system of the beginning of private law, where at the head of a corner – people as a legal entity. Opinions of lawyers on various legal problems, and the attitudes towards these opinions are subject to considerable dynamics. The centuries-old history of development of the right showed that fight of opinions, collision of various positions allows to understand more deeply the discussed problem, to come nearer to truth. The modern civil law widely uses a method of comparative jurisprudence, studying experience of the civilized countries which promoted in development of the civil legislation.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

Preliminary statement concerning the expert opinion and other documents relating to the Wackersdorf fuel reprocessing plant, laid open between June 18 and July 15, 1985 by the Bavarian Ministry of State for Regional Development and Environmental Affairs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

The conclusion drawn in the statement is that the expert opinions and documents available do not justify the granting of a first partial licence for the erection of the fuel reprocessing plant. Such a first partial licence would include the site approval, the outline design approval, and part-construction permits, in this case for instance for the fuel element receiving store. The site approval would be a premature decision according to this statement, as some decisive expert opinions (on meteorological, hydrological, and radioecological site conditions) are not yet completed. The documents available for evaluation of the design concept are said to have been insufficient in many regards, so that all the authors can state at the present time is that 'there may be technically feasible solutions by now'. This is judged to be an insufficient basis for an outline design approval in accordance with the Atomic Energy Act. The reasons brought forward against licensing the fuel element receiving store are similar. For lack of appropriate documents, the authors of the statement found themselves unable to assess the safety of a major component, the fuel element storage tank. (orig./HSCH) [de

'Quicksand' of public opinion - trust in nuclear after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gieci, Adam; Maly, Stanislav; Palecek, Milos

2012-01-01

The following public opinion surveys are described: public opinion on nuclear power plants by the end of 2010; first public opinion polls after Fukushima in the US, UK and France; and public opinion and the future of nuclear in Japan. The following issues are discussed: Has nuclear any perspective after Fukushima? Will public opinion change after the Fukushima accident like it did after the TMI event? Will public opinion change after the Fukushima accident like it did after the oil spill accident in the Gulf of Mexico? In conclusion the new approaches to the fight for public confidence after Fukushima are described. (orig.)

Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

2014-04-01

The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

1995-02-01

Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Expert opinion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

2017-01-01

Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third......-line treatment for CSU. However, the definition of response to omalizumab treatment often differs between clinical trials, real-world studies, and daily practice of individual physicians globally. As such, a consensus definition of "complete", "partial" and "non-response" to omalizumab is required in order...... into a patient's disease burden and its changes during treatment. A potential omalizumab treatment approach based on speed and pattern of response at 1-3 and 3-6 months is suggested. In cases where there is no response during the first 1-3 months, physicians should consider reassessing the original CSU diagnosis...

Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: guptanidhi12@gmail.com; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); George, Saji, E-mail: saji_george@nyp.gov.sg [Nanyang Polytechnic, Centre for Sustainable Nanotechnology, School of Chemical and Life Sciences (Singapore); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

2013-08-15

The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

2013-01-01

The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors

Opinions and statements of the experts who studied the framework conditions of abandonment of nuclear power - presented by the commission set in by the OeTV Executive Board (Public Services and Transport Workers' Union)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-10-01

The publication consists of two volumes and explains the position and opinions of the OeTV Executive Board concerning abandonment of nuclear power. The first volume presents the Executive Board's statement given in September 1987: Nuclear power should be abandoned, and it can be done; energy policy has to take a new line, concentrating on energy conservation, enhanced use of coal for electricity generation, enhanced use of renewable energy sources; stepwise shutdown of nuclear power stations. The first volume also presents the documents and experience forming the basis of the Union's position, namely the expert opinions on this issue, and an information visit to Sweden together with a report of Sweden's Minister of Industry on effects of the Chernobyl reactor accident. The development of the Union's point of view of energy policy since the year 1976. (HSCH) [de

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitter, Gary G.

1989-01-01

Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

Desirability and feasibility of sustainable urban transport systems. An expert-based strategic scenario approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nijkamp, P.; Ouwersloot, H.; Rienstra, S.A. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1995-09-01

Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from sustainability and that major changes are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. Main problems may occur in urban transport, where not many promising solutions are expected, while the problems are severe. In view of the great number of uncertainties, we will in our paper resort to scenarios. In the paper, expert scenarios, which lead to a sustainable transport system are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts - both average scenarios and scenarios of segments of the respondents - which have been investigated by means of a survey. The expected scenarios indicate that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenarios on the other hand, suggest the emergence and the need for a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. In the paper the resulting urban transport systems are also discussed. By calculating the CO2 emissions in the average expected and desired scenario, it appears that the expected scenario does not lead to a large scale reduction of those emissions; the desired scenario however, may lead to a large scale reduction of the emissions. The conclusion is that the differences in expert opinion are small and that the road towards a sustainable (urban) transport system is still far away, although the compact city concept may perhaps offer some solution. 6 figs., 2 tabs., 18 refs.

Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Grider, Daryl A.

1994-01-01

Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

IRSN opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results June 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-06-01

After having commented the most remarkable results (importance of the economic crisis as a major concern for French people before environmental concerns, an improved perception of industrial risks, the Fukushima accident is fading away but specific traces remain, expectations regarding nuclear energy), this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to three aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: nuclear risk, ability and credibility of interveners, debate on energy transition. A last part addresses the perception of the Fukushima accident. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

Part of an observatory of opinions on risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenot, J.

1999-01-01

An observatory of opinions about risks constitutes the frame in which can be developed exchanges between research workers, engineers, experts, persons in charge of authorities and societies managers for who the way whom the public takes into account the risks constitutes an element of the management, the decision or the communication. The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (I.P.S.N.) has, with the passing of the years, build a such observatory whom activities are developed according to several directions. (N.C.)

Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining

CERN Document Server

Liu, Bing

2012-01-01

Sentiment analysis and opinion mining is the field of study that analyzes people's opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions from written language. It is one of the most active research areas in natural language processing and is also widely studied in data mining, Web mining, and text mining. In fact, this research has spread outside of computer science to the management sciences and social sciences due to its importance to business and society as a whole. The growing importance of sentiment analysis coincides with the growth of social media such as reviews, forum discussions

User Information Needs for Environmental Opinion-forming and Decision-making in Link-enriched Video

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.C. Palumbo; L. Hardman (Lynda)

2013-01-01

htmlabstractLink-enriched video can support users in informative processes of environmental opinion-forming and decision-making. To enable this, we need to specify the information that should be captured in an annotation schema for describing the video. We conducted expert interviews to elicit

Use of fuzzy set theory in the aggregation of expert judgments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Joo Hyun; Kang, Chang Sun

1999-01-01

It is sometimes impossible to make a correct decision in a certain engineering task without the help from professional expert judgments. Even though there are different expert opinions available, however, they should be appropriately aggregated to a useful form for making an acceptable engineering decision. This paper proposes a technique which utilizes the fuzzy set theory in the aggregation of expert judgments. In the technique, two main key concepts are employed: linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. Linguistic variables first represent the relative importance of evaluation criteria under consideration and the degree of confidence on each expert perceived by the decision maker, and then are replaced by suitable triangular fuzzy numbers for arithmetic manipulation. As a benchmark problem, the pressure increment in the containment of Sequoyah nuclear power plant due to reactor vessel breach was estimated to verify and validate the proposed technique

2002/03 public opinion survey 'Nuclear Energy - the Present and the Future'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trontl, K.; Gergeta, K.

2003-01-01

During the years 2000 and 2002 the Croatian Nuclear Society Young Generation Network carried out public opinion surveys among student population of around 650 individuals age 18-20. The results of the surveys suggested the necessity of a more active involvement of nuclear experts in high school education. Croatian Young Generation Network decided to prepare brochures on different subjects concerning nuclear energy and distribute them to high school students, primarily third and fourth graders. To be able to evaluate the influence of distributed materials, fresh reference data are needed. Therefore, a traditional public opinion survey 'Nuclear Energy - the Present and the Future' has been carried out among faculty student population. (author)

A Web-Based Rice Plant Expert System Using Rule-Based Reasoning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Rice plants can be attacked by various kinds of diseases which are possible to be determined from their symptoms. However, it is to recognize that to find out the exact type of disease, an agricultural expert’s opinion is needed, meanwhile the numbers of agricultural experts are limited and there are too many problems to be solved at the same time. This makes a system with a capability as an expert is required. This system must contain the knowledge of the diseases and symptom of rice plants as an agricultural expert has to have. This research designs a web-based expert system using rule-based reasoning. The rule are modified from the method of forward chaining inference and backward chaining in order to to help farmers in the rice plant disease diagnosis. The web-based rice plants disease diagnosis expert system has the advantages to access and use easily. With web-based features inside, it is expected that the farmer can accesse the expert system everywhere to overcome the problem to diagnose rice diseases.

Expert systems: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdejo, F.

1985-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes: a Delphi survey from Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaser, Jeremie; Cornuz, Jacques

2015-04-15

In some countries, nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are considered a consumer product without specific regulations. In others (eg, Switzerland), the sale of e-cigarettes containing nicotine is forbidden, despite the eagerness of many smokers to obtain them. As scientific data about efficacy and long-term safety of these products are scarce, tobacco control experts are divided on how to regulate them. In order to gain consensus among experts to provide recommendations to health authorities, we performed a national consensus study. We used a Delphi method with electronic questionnaires to bring together the opinion of Swiss experts on e-cigarettes. 40 Swiss experts from across the country. We measured the degree of consensus between experts on recommendations regarding regulation, sale, use of and general opinion about e-cigarettes containing nicotine. New recommendations and statements were added following the experts' answers and comments. There was consensus that e-cigarettes containing nicotine should be made available, but only under specific conditions. Sale should be restricted to adults, using quality standards, a maximum level of nicotine and with an accompanying list of authorised ingredients. Advertisement should be restricted and use in public places should be forbidden. These recommendations encompass three principles: (1) the reality principle, as the product is already on the market; (2) the prevention principle, as e-cigarettes provide an alternative to tobacco for actual smokers, and (3) the precautionary principle, to protect minors and non-smokers, since long-term effects are not yet known. Swiss authorities should design specific regulations to sell nicotine-containing e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

The use of expert judgement in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

The use of expert judgement in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

The use of expert judgement in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

Monitoring and control of microbioreactors: An expert opinion on development needs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gernaey, Krist; Baganz, Frank; Franco-Lara, Ezequiel

2012-01-01

This perspective article is based on an expert panel review on microbioreactor applications in biochemical and biomedical engineering that was organized by the M3C (measurement, monitoring, modelling and control) Working Group of the European Section of Biochemical Engineering Science (ESBES......) in the European Federation of Biotechnology (EFB). The aim of the panel was to provide an updated view on the present status of the subject and to identify critical needs and issues for furthering the successful development of microbioreactor monitoring and control. This will benefit future bioprocess development...

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

2014-12-01

It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

2016-08-01

In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teachers' opinion about learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical material in classification topics

Science.gov (United States)

Andriani, Aldina Eka; Subali, Bambang

2017-08-01

This research discusses learning continuum development for designing a curriculum. The objective of this study is to gather the opinion of public junior and senior high school teachers about learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical material in classification topics. This research was conducted in Yogyakarta province from October 2016 to January 2017. This research utilizes a descriptive survey method. Respondents in this study consist of 281 science teachers at junior and senior high school in Yogyakarta city and 4 regencies namely Sleman, Bantul, Kulonprogo, and Gunung Kidul. The sample were taken using a census. The collection of data used questionnaire that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements. Data were analyzed using a descriptive analysis technique. The results of the analysis show that the opinions of teachers regarding specific pedagogical material in classification topics of living things at the junior high school taught in grade VII to the ability level of C2 (Understanding). At senior high school level, it is taught in grade X with the ability level C2 (Understanding). Based on these results, it can be concluded that the opinions of teachers still refer to the current syllabus and curriculum so that the teachers do not have pure opinions about the student's competence level in classification topics that should be taught at the level of the grade in accordance with the level of corresponding competency.

Expert Systems Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

1983-01-01

Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

Risk perceptions starting to shift? U.S. citizens are forming opinions about nanotechnology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Priest, Susanna; Greenhalgh, Ted; Kramer, Victoria

2010-01-01

This article presents early results from an opinion formation study based on a 76-member panel of U.S. citizens, with comparison data from a group of 177 nanotechnology experts. While initially similar to the expert group in terms of their perceptions of the risks, benefits, and need for regulation characterizing several forms of nanotechnology, the first follow-up survey indicates that the panel is beginning to diverge from the experts, particularly with respect to perceptions of the levels of various 'societal' risks that nanotechnology might present. The data suggest that responding to public concerns may involve more than attention to physical risks in areas such as health and environment; concerns about other forms of risk actually appear more salient.

Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

2013-01-01

Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

IRSN 2014 opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

2014-06-01

A first and synthetic part of this report comments the most remarkable results of the opinion survey. It first addresses results related to a context of economic crisis (importance of the economic crisis and unemployment as major concerns for French people, environmental concerns) and then analyzes the different aspects of the nuclear risk, from the accident to nuclear safety: strong fears of a nuclear accident, Fukushima and Chernobyl are immediately present in people's mind, concerns about nuclear are also related to the environment and health, the actual benefit of nuclear is an economic one, nuclear safety is a major challenge on which French people doubt, French people wish a citizen look on nuclear safety, the opinion of French people on nuclear worsened in 2013. Then, this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to 3 aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: expectations in terms of nuclear risk management, fear of a serious accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, skill and credibility of interveners. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

Towards an ICF core set for ADHD: a worldwide expert survey on ability and disability

OpenAIRE

de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; Coghill, David; de Vries, Petrus J.; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Levy, Florence; Almodayfer, Omar; Rohde, Luis; Tannock, Rosemary; B?lte, Sven

2015-01-01

This is the second in a series of four empirical studies designed to develop International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF and Children and Youth version, ICF-CY) core sets for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The objective of this stage was to gather the opinions from international experts on which ability and disability concepts were considered relevant to functioning in ADHD. An email-based survey was carried out amongst international experts in AD...

Expert systems for assisting in design reviews

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brtis, J.S.; Johnson, W.J.; Weber, N.; Naser, J.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses Sargent and Lundy's (S and L's) use of expert system technologies to computerize the procedures used for engineering design reviews. This paper discusses expert systems and the advantages that result from using them to computerize the decision-making process. This paper also discusses the design review expert systems that S and L has developed to perform fire protection and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) design reviews, and is currently developing for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to perform 10 CFR 50.59 safety reviews

A Survey of Key Technology of Network Public Opinion Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Su Ying

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The internet has become an important base for internet users to make comments because of its interactivity and fast dissemination. The outbreak of internet public opinion has become a major risk for network information security. Domestic and foreign researchers had carried out extensive and in-depth study on public opinion. Fruitful results have achieved in the basic theory research and emergency handling and other aspects of public opinion. But research on the public opinion in China is still in the initial stage, the key technology of the public opinion analysis is still as a starting point for in-depth study and discussion.

THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

Science.gov (United States)

Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

The IRSN 2008 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about quantitative criteria of risk management and about the image of science), on their opinion of scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), incidents which occurred in 2007, the demand of information on the nuclear risk), and on their opinion about radiotherapy accidents in France

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Second-opinion interpretations of gynecologic oncologic MRI examinations by sub-specialized radiologists influence patient care

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakhman, Yulia; Vargas, Hebert Alberto; Sosa, Ramon E.; Hricak, Hedvig; Sala, Evis; D'Anastasi, Melvin; Micco, Maura; Scelzo, Chiara; Nougaret, Stephanie; Chi, Dennis S.; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R.

2016-01-01

To determine if second-opinion review of gynaecologic oncologic (GynOnc) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by sub-specialized radiologists impacts patient care. 469 second-opinion MRI interpretations rendered by GynOnc radiologists were retrospectively compared to the initial outside reports. Two gynaecologic surgeons, blinded to the reports' origins, reviewed all cases with discrepancies between initial and second-opinion MRI reports and recorded whether these discrepancies would have led to a change in patient management defined as a change in treatment approach, counselling, or referral. Histopathology or minimum 6-month imaging follow-up were used to establish the diagnosis. Second-opinion review of GynOnc MRIs would theoretically have affected management in 94/469 (20 %) and 101/469 (21.5 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. Specifically, second-opinion review would have theoretically altered treatment approach in 71/469 (15.1 %) and 60/469 (12.8 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. According to surgeons 1 and 2, these treatment changes would have prevented unnecessary surgery in 35 (7.5 %) and 31 (6.6 %) patients, respectively, and changed surgical procedure type/extent in 19 (4.1 %) and 12 (2.5 %) patients, respectively. Second-opinion interpretations were correct in 103 (83 %) of 124 cases with clinically relevant discrepancies between initial and second-opinion reports. Expert second-opinion review of GynOnc MRI influences patient care. (orig.)

Forming of political opinion and decision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urban, K.

1980-01-01

Taking the SNR-300 reactor in Kalkar as an example, the process of forming of political opinion and decision is reconstructed in order to get a picture of typical consensus- and conflict patterns in the discussion of safety problems. On this basis, it should be possible to derive a freedom of action for the political and administrative managing of safety matters by means of feed back with social groups. As a crucial point the aspects concerning the steps of the forming of political opinion and decision are examined. (DG) [de

How does injury compensation affect health and disability in patients with complaints of whiplash? A qualitative study among rehabilitation experts-professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Suzan; Pieterse, Marcel; Reneman, Michiel; Verhoeven, Jan; van der Palen, Job

2016-01-01

To explore rehabilitation professionals' opinions about the influence and the pathways of injury compensation (IC) on health and disability in patients with whiplash associated disorder (WAD). Semi-structured interviews were performed among a purposeful selected sample of Dutch expert-professionals in the field of rehabilitation of patients with WAD. Inclusion continued until saturation was reached. Inductive and deductive thematic analyses were performed. Ten rehabilitation expert-professionals (five females), working as physician, psychologist or physiotherapist, were interviewed. All expert-professionals acknowledged that IC can influence rehabilitation, health and disability. The expert-professionals provided three causal pathways; a pathway through prolonged distress, a behavioral pathway, and patient characteristics that may either attenuate or worsen their response. They assess the influence of IC mainly with interview techniques. Most professionals discuss the potential influence of IC with their patients, because they want to give clear information to the patient. Some emphasize that their role is neutral in relation with the IC. Others mention that financial consequences can accompany functional improvement. Rehabilitation expert-professionals believe that IC may affect rehabilitation, health and disability in patients with WAD. Three pathways are mentioned by the experts-professionals. According to rehabilitation expert-professionals, an injury compensation (IC) can lead to distress, by creating a (conscious or unconscious) conflict of interests within a patient between striving for compensation on one hand, and recovery on the other hand. Patient characteristics can either attenuate or worsen IC-related distress. Reliable and valid tools need to be developed to assess the influence of IC on health, disability and rehabilitation, and to limit the negative effects. Rehabilitation professionals can discuss the possible unintended effects of IC with their

A bioethical j’accuse: analysis of the discussion around thiomersal in Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Kottow, Miguel

2014-03-26

Chilean legislators have voted to ban vaccines preserved with thiomersal, an initiative that the Executive has vetoed. Most scientific evidence has dismissed the alleged toxicity of this substance, in accordance with the formal and publicly expressed opinion of local experts, and yet, medical authorities have issued contradictory statements. Some have argued that the principle of precaution suggests eliminating thiomersal preserved vaccines; others have declared that current vaccines should be maintained to protect the population. From the perspective of bioethics, this polemic is another example of the shortcoming of the deliberation process leading to controversial laws in lieu of including citizens in the discussion of regulations that harbor uncertainties, and respect for individual autonomy to accept or reject public immunization programs. The Chilean legal system has been unwilling to implement participatory democratic procedures like plebiscites or institutions such as the ombudsman. In 2006 a law was enacted that creates a National Commission of Bioethics, but successive governments have failed to create such a commission, which is an efficient social instrument to conduct deliberation on bioethical issues that require a balanced participation of the public, experts, and politicians.

The IRSN 2010 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 32 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 32 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

The IRSN 2009 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

Co-Evolution of Opinion and Strategy in Persuasion Dynamics:. AN Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun; Li, Yong

In this paper, a new model of opinion formation within the framework of evolutionary game theory is presented. The model simulates strategic situations when people are in opinion discussion. Heterogeneous agents adjust their behaviors to the environment during discussions, and their interacting strategies evolve together with opinions. In the proposed game, we take into account payoff discount to join a discussion, and the situation that people might drop out of an unpromising game. Analytical and emulational results show that evolution of opinion and strategy always tend to converge, with utility threshold, memory length, and decision uncertainty parameters influencing the convergence time. The model displays different dynamical regimes when we set differently the rule when people are at a loss in strategy.

Alleged child sexual abuse : The expert witness and the court

OpenAIRE

Gumpert, Clara Hellner

2001-01-01

Background During the past decades, the evaluation of alleged sexual abuse has manifested itself as a major challenge for professionals working within the field of child maltreatment. A new role for psychologists and psychiatrists has been to give expert opinions regarding the credibility and reliability of child witnesses in legal proceedings. Although some aspects of evaluating suspected sexual abuse cases are close to traditional clinical work, other aspects necessitate ...

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology : an expert stakeholder analysis

OpenAIRE

Gupta, N.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Lans, van der, I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

2012-01-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

OpenAIRE

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-01-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2006-01-01

Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

Identifying the Essential Elements of Effective Science Communication: What Do the Experts Say?

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, Belinda; France, Bev; Gilbert, John K.

2012-01-01

Experts in science communication were asked to identify the essential elements of a science communication course for post-graduate students. A Delphi methodology provided a framework for a research design that accessed their opinions and allowed them to contribute to, reflect on and identify 10 essential elements. There was a high level of…

The necessity of repeated assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records in medico-legal opinions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandra Borowska-Solonynko

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents two case reports of living victims, in which imaging studies of the chest conducted at a medical facility were an essential part of the medico-legal opinion. The first case was that of a young male hospitalized due to CT evidence of bilateral rib fractions, who claimed to have been assaulted by police officers. The other case was that of a six week old baby hospitalized due to chest X-ray evidence of right hand side rib fractions. The chest X-ray was performed due to one bruise found on the baby’s forehead and two small bruises on the back, which gave rise to suspicions of child abuse. In both cases, expert witnesses in radiology definitively excluded the presence of any fractures. These cases indicate that a new assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records is needed. Expert opinions based solely on the description of imaging studies may result in grave consequences.

Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

2016-01-01

There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

Bruxism: Conceptual discussion and review

Science.gov (United States)

Murali, R. V.; Rangarajan, Priyadarshni; Mounissamy, Anjana

2015-01-01

Bruxism is commonly considered a detrimental motor activity, potentially causing overload of the stomatognathic structures. The etiology of bruxism is unclear, but the condition has been associated with stress, occlusal disorders, allergies and sleep positioning. Due to its nonspecific pathology, bruxism may be difficult to diagnose. Unfortunately, very little data exists on the subject of a cause-and-effect relationship of bruxism to the point that expert opinions and cautionary approaches are still considered the best available sources for suggesting good practice indicators. The present paper reviewed current concepts on bruxism, etiology, diagnosis and management, underlining its effects on dental structures in an attempt to provide clinically useful suggestions based on scientifically sound data. PMID:26015729

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

CLINICAL PATHWAYS IN 17 EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES: A SURVEY OF EXPERT OPINIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Don Hindle

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Background. The main focus of the survey is on the extent to which clinical pathways are being used, and whether it might provide a basis for improved service planning and consequently strategic asset planning in health care.Methods. In the first stage, our aim was to make contact with one agency in each country (the primary agency below that would be able to provide contacts within that country with a mix of experts from each of the following types of agencies: Health sector government regulator, Health care purchasing (insurance agencies, Senior clinical managers in hospitals, Senior clinical managers in non-hospital care provider agencies (eg, home care, or primary medical care, Health professional societies (preferably medical and nursing, Accreditation or audit agencies, Consumer associations and Public or private agencies concerned with health facilities development. Definitions of these agencies and other terms were attached to the questionnaire itself. We would then ask the primary agency to choose the experts that were most likely to be aware of clinical pathway use. The persons thus contacted would then be asked to complete the questionnaire and send it back to the researchers. The aim was not to attempt to establish a random sample, but rather to target well-informed people.Results. 51 completed questionnaires were provided by largely self-selected experts from 17 EU countries. Respondents reported that pathways are important and becoming increasingly widely used (although the rate of progress is highly variable, the main constraints to their use are a cultural aversion among doctors and little encouragement from external parties, and there is growing recognition that multi-setting pathways have the greatest potential value.Conclusions. More needs to be done to achieve a common understanding of the ideas of pathways, strategic asset planning, and the interrelationships. Systems problems need systems solutions. In the case of clinical

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

Science.gov (United States)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Nuclear energy and public opinion: arousal of a myth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agrafiotis, D.; Delarminat, E.; Morlat, G.; Pages, J.P.

1977-01-01

In order to explain why an individual or the public opinion is in favour or against the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, one should not only consider the dimension of the involved risk, as radiation protection and safety experts will often do. Many other dimensions should be considered all the more as the nuclear problem is gaining importance on a national level, becoming the topic of the day in press and other media and the subject of 'definite' position from political parties and social groups. An investigation carried out within the Protection Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) has made it possible to specify the socio-cultural dimensions at the origin of the attitudes taken on the nuclear problem in France. The nuclear topic was therefore compared with other present topics interesting public opinion; this comparison was made possible by means of an attitude survey covering various social groups. A model of social perception was thus developed [fr

Bridge between public perception and expert assessment of nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-09-01

Preparation of the brief consisted of a comprehensive review of literature, selective interviews of available representative parties, and categorization of the spectrum of opinions. Analysis of the information thus obtained included identification of reconcilable and irreconcilable differences among the opinions and indication of possible ways to bridge some of the differences. Opinions were generally found to be best categorized as the pro, neutral, and contra opinions associated with experts and the public. The primary issues separating the opposing groups appear to be the following: 1) the required input for probabilistic risk analysis of accidents; 2) the evaluation of what constitutes an acceptable risk; 3) the evaluation of potential long-term consequences; 4) the general need for nuclear energy; and 5) the long-term risk to public health. Among the above issues, potential for reconciliation was found only for the first two, while the latter issues, because of the relatively short history of the industry and paucity of knowledge on relevant factors, were found difficult to reconcile without expansion of our present knowledge and data base. Reconciliation, generally, was proposed through augmentation of communication among the opposing groups through the availability of appropriate fora and development of a general spirit of good intention for a common cause: mankind's ultimate well-being

Ask the experts: the challenges and benefits of flow chemistry to optimize drug development.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Neal; Gernaey, Krist V; Jamison, Timothy F; Kircher, Manfred; Wiles, Charlotte; Leadbeater, Nicholas E; Sandford, Graham; Richardson, Paul

2012-09-01

Against a backdrop of a struggling economic and regulatory climate, pharmaceutical companies have recently been forced to develop new ways to provide more efficient technology to meet the demands of a competitive drug industry. This issue, coupled with an increase in patent legislation and a rising generics market, makes these themes common issues in the growth of drug development. As a consequence, the importance of process chemistry and scale-up has never been more under the spotlight. Future Medicinal Chemistry wishes to share the thoughts and opinions of a variety of experts from this field, discussing issues concerning the use of flow chemistry to optimize drug development, the potential regulatory and environmental challenges faced with this, and whether the academic and industrial sectors could benefit from a more harmonized system relevant to process chemistry.

Proof of causation through expert opinion evidence in low-level radiation cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heideck, R.E.

1985-01-01

Tort law requires that the injured person prove that the injury was caused by a particular exposure to radiation for which the defendant is responsible. Heideck shows how expert evidence helps the court or jury resolve this question. The author analyzes a recent effort to bridge the gap between the legal requirement of proof of causation in individual cases and the conclusions that derive from group statistics. Some scientists argue that this approach is more technically sound than traditional tort law because it attempts to develop a probability of causation in individual cases

Best practice strategies to safeguard drug prescribing and drug administration: an anthology of expert views and opinions.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidling, Hanna M; Stützle, Marion; Hoppe-Tichy, Torsten; Allenet, Benoît; Bedouch, Pierrick; Bonnabry, Pascal; Coleman, Jamie J; Fernandez-Llimos, Fernando; Lovis, Christian; Rei, Maria Jose; Störzinger, Dominic; Taylor, Lenka A; Pontefract, Sarah K; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; van der Sijs, Heleen; Haefeli, Walter E

2016-04-01

While evidence on implementation of medication safety strategies is increasing, reasons for selecting and relinquishing distinct strategies and details on implementation are typically not shared in published literature. We aimed to collect and structure expert information resulting from implementing medication safety strategies to provide advice for decision-makers. Medication safety experts with clinical expertise from thirteen hospitals throughout twelve European and North American countries shared their experience in workshop meetings, on-site-visits and remote structured interviews. We performed an expert-based, in-depth assessment of implementation of best-practice strategies to improve drug prescribing and drug administration. Workflow, variability and recommended medication safety strategies in drug prescribing and drug administration processes. According to the experts, institutions chose strategies that targeted process steps known to be particularly error-prone in the respective setting. Often, the selection was channeled by local constraints such as the e-health equipment and critically modulated by national context factors. In our study, the experts favored electronic prescribing with clinical decision support and medication reconciliation as most promising interventions. They agreed that self-assessment and introduction of medication safety boards were crucial to satisfy the setting-specific differences and foster successful implementation. While general evidence for implementation of strategies to improve medication safety exists, successful selection and adaptation of a distinct strategy requires a thorough knowledge of the institute-specific constraints and an ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the implemented measures.

Operational expert system applications in Europe

CERN Document Server

Zarri, Gian Piero

1992-01-01

Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-01-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts; Umweltpolitik. Umweltgutachten 2000 des Rates von Sachverstaendigen fuer Umweltfragen. Schritte ins naechste Jahrtausend. Kurzfassung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-05-01

The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states. [German] Eines der Schwerpunktthemen des Umweltgutachtens ist die Neuordnung der Energiepolitik. Der Umweltrat haelt die weitere Nutzung der Atomenergie vor allem wegen der Risiken der Entsorgung nicht fuer verantwortbar. Er befuerwortet die Einleitung einer Energiewende. Zur oekologischen Steuerreform werden weiterfuehrende Empfehlungen unterbreitet. An vielen Stellen nimmt der Rat die Umweltpolitik auch kritisch unter die Lupe. Er weist auf den hohen Handlungsbedarf im Naturschutz hin. Eine dauerhafte Trendwende beim Grad der Gefaehrdung heimischer Tier- und Pflanzenarten sei in Deutschland noch nicht erreicht. Der Rat bestaetigt in diesem Zusammenhang die naturschutzpolitische Konzeption der Bundesregierung fuer einen Naturschutz auf der ganzen Flaeche, kombiniert mit einem grossflaechigen Biotopverbundsystem auf 10% der Landesflaeche. Der

Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

Science.gov (United States)

Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

2017-10-01

The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

Nuclear power engineering: Public understanding and public opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kryshev, A.I.; Sazykina, T.G.

1998-01-01

Subjective and objective reasons for the formation of public opinion about nuclear power engineering of Russia were analyzed. Some methodological errors in work with the Russian public on the problems of nuclear energy and possible methods of their correction were discussed. The social groups of the general public, which are of greatest importance in forming the attitude towards nuclear power engineering were indicated. The conclusion was reached that opinion of the ordinary population is often indicative of real drawbacks in the work of specialists in the nuclear fuel cycle. Consequently, careful surveys of public opinion about the problems of the nuclear industry should be very useful in organizing research work properly and improving the radiation safety. (author)

Utility opinions on energy supply. Praise and reprimand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This article discusses the opinions expressed by several electricity utilities on the cost-covering remuneration of electricity produced using renewable resources. Positive and negative aspects of the system - in the opinion of the utilities - are listed. Positive issues discussed include the improved economic viability of installations using renewable energy sources, preservation of know-how, increased use of renewables and the minimisation of economic risk for the builders of such installations. Negative issues noted include the general financial burden placed on all electricity consumers, the limits placed by parliament on the remuneration scheme, various hindrances still active in the implementation of such installations and possible competition with other schemes that further the use of electricity from renewable resources.

Methodology toward second generation expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.

1989-01-01

So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

Computers Simulate Human Experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Steven K.

1983-01-01

Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

Modeling and Simulation of Polarization in Internet Group Opinions Based on Cellular Automata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaofeng Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Hot events on Internet always attract many people who usually form one or several opinion camps through discussion. For the problem of polarization in Internet group opinions, we propose a new model based on Cellular Automata by considering neighbors, opinion leaders, and external influences. Simulation results show the following: (1 It is easy to form the polarization for both continuous opinions and discrete opinions when we only consider neighbors influence, and continuous opinions are more effective in speeding the polarization of group. (2 Coevolution mechanism takes more time to make the system stable, and the global coupling mechanism leads the system to consensus. (3 Opinion leaders play an important role in the development of consensus in Internet group opinions. However, both taking the opinion leaders as zealots and taking some randomly selected individuals as zealots are not conductive to the consensus. (4 Double opinion leaders with consistent opinions will accelerate the formation of group consensus, but the opposite opinions will lead to group polarization. (5 Only small external influences can change the evolutionary direction of Internet group opinions.

Who are the opinion leaders? The physicians, pharmacists, patients, and direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Annisa Lai

2010-09-01

A popular perception holds that physicians prescribe requested drugs to patients influenced by mass mediated direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising. The phenomenon poses a serious challenge to the two-step flow model, which emphasizes the influence of opinion leaders on their followers and their legitimating power over the informing power of the mass media. This study investigates a 2002 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) survey and finds that patients searching for drug information through mass and hybrid media in newspapers and magazines' small print, the Internet, and toll-free numbers are more likely to seek information through interpersonal communication channels like health care providers. Patients using small print, toll-free numbers, one's own physician, and other physicians are associated with influencing their physicians with various drug-requesting behaviors. But physicians only prescribe requested drugs to patients who are influenced by other health care providers, such as pharmacists and other physicians, not the mass media. The influence of expert opinion leaders of drugs is so strong that the patients even would switch from their own unyielding physicians who do not prescribe drugs as advised by the pharmacists. Physicians and patients all are influenced more by other expert opinion leaders of drugs than by the mass media and therefore still uphold the basic tenet of the two-step model.

Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Illovsky, Michael E.

1994-01-01

Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

Types of arguments in parents-children discussions:: an argumentative analysis

OpenAIRE

Bova, Antonio; Arcidiacono, Francesco

2014-01-01

This study aims to single out the argumentative strategies most frequently used by parents to convince their children to accept their rules and prescriptions at mealtimes. The results of thestudy show that parents mostly put forward arguments based on the quality and quantity of food to persuade their childern to eat. Less frequently, the parents put forward other types of arguments such as the appeal to consistency, the arguments from expert opinion, and the argument from analogy. Whi...

A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

2017-01-01

developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

Content Analysis and Readibility Formulas as Applied To The Accounting Principles Board "Opinions"

Science.gov (United States)

Stead, Bette Ann

1977-01-01

Discusses a study analyzing twenty-four of the Accounting Principles Board "Opinions" (APB Opinions) and concludes that the APB context is very difficult to read and understand for both accounting and nonaccounting majors. (MH)

The IRSN 2012 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle

2012-01-01

This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (what is the most concerning issue in the present society and in the environment, science within concerns), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), on their opinion on 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities to protect them, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 33 situations), on their opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), and on the Fukushima accident (perception of the accident, quality of information, expectations on the assessment of nuclear power stations)

Essential elements of an early intervention service for psychosis: the opinions of expert clinicians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lewis Shôn

2004-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Early intervention teams attempt to improve outcome in schizophrenia through earlier detection and the provision of phase-specific treatments. Whilst the number of early intervention teams is growing, there is a lack of clarity over their essential structural and functional elements. Methods A 'Delphi' exercise was carried out to identify how far there was consensus on the essential elements of early intervention teams in a group of 21 UK expert clinicians. Using published guidelines, an initial list was constructed containing 151 elements from ten categories of team structure and function. Results Overall there was expert consensus on the importance of 136 (90% of these elements. Of the items on which there was consensus, 106 (70.2% were rated essential, meaning that in their absence the functioning of the team would be severely impaired. Conclusion This degree of consensus over essential elements suggests that it is reasonable to define a model for UK early intervention teams, from which a measure of fidelity could be derived.

Experts in science and society

CERN Document Server

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2004-01-01

In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

Contemporary Expert Debates on the SCO-Related Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor Evgen'evich Denisov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since its establishment the SCO has always attracted a lot of expert attention. The SCO Forum was founded in 2006 to bring together for annual debates experts from all member-states. Within this format in-depth discussions took place in April 2016 in Dushanbe, which hosted this year conference of the SCO Forum. Participating experts and officials reviewed problems of security, economic cooperation (including transport and water-energy issues and SCO enlargement, the latter being one of the most debatable. Experts presented some new thesis on all these problems, in particular on the enlargement issue. These new thesis are summed up in this article. Besides, the SCO Forum this year had many statements on the organization approaching a sort of new phase in its development. This line of discussions may lead in the future to even more active debates on SCO's role in the world. This article puts emphasis on the new elements of these debates and reviews major experts' attitudes within this line of discussion on the SCO being in front of a new stage of development.

Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

Science.gov (United States)

Olmstadt, William J.

2000-01-01

Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

Different contributions of internal reviewers and external experts to labelling decisions on therapeutic indications in new drug reviews in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Yokota, M; Kusama, M; Matsuki, N; Ono, S

2013-12-01

External experts play an important role in shaping regulatory decisions in the new drug review process in the United States, Europe and Japan. No rigorous study has been performed addressing how and to what extent external experts, in contrast to internal reviewers in the agency, influence the regulatory decisions during new drug reviews. We examined their contributions in Japanese regulatory reviews in contrast to the internal reviewers, focusing on the labelling decision on therapeutic indications. With the data set of 219 new molecular entities (NMEs) approved in Japan from 2000 to 2009, we observed how proposed indications in labelling were modified in a stepwise manner during the review process and conducted multinomial logistic analysis to examine the possible mechanism behind. We found that interim assessment of indications by the internal reviewers was modified substantially by the influence of the external experts in about 20% of the 219 NMEs. Our analysis suggested that internal reviewers provided their opinion mainly based on strict review discipline, whereas external experts added flexibility and reality to their reviews. Our analysis revealed different evaluations between internal reviewers and external experts during regulatory discussions in new drug reviews and how the external panel contributes to changing internal decisions. This study provides a new and quantitative approach to better label setting by emphasizing the contributions of each stakeholder in new drug reviews, which would improve the efficiency, quality and transparency of new drug reviews to enhance public health. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Public perceptions and preferences regarding large scale implementation of six CO2 capture and storage technologies. Well-informed and well-considered opinions versus uninformed pseudo-opinions of the Dutch public

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Best-Waldhober, M.; Daamen, D.

2006-03-01

Three research projects were carried out within the framework of the programme 'Sustainable use of fossil fuels'. Two research projects focussed on technical aspects of advanced fossil fuel options with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). The focus of the third project was on studying informed opinions of the general public regarding advanced fossil fuel options. This study has investigated the choices the general public would make after having received and evaluated expert information on the consequences pertaining to these choices. The method to collect these informed preferences is called the Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ). By comparing informed public preferences, obtained through administration of the ICQ, with current public opinions and preferences regarding fossil fuel options, collected in a more conventional survey, the outcomes of this project can indicate what options would be considered acceptable given sufficient knowledge, and how much and in what respect the current situation deviates from this possible future situation. Answering these questions constitutes the main goal of this project. This report describes the development and deployment of the Information-Choice Questionnaire on advanced fossil fuel options. It furthermore describes the parallel deployment of a more traditional questionnaire without expert information and a second measure of this more traditional questionnaire. This report encompasses all parts of the project 'Informed opinions of the general public as a tool for policy measures regarding advanced fossil fuel options'. This report will explain the ICQ methodology and its usefulness for this project. Furthermore, the development of the current ICQ, the method of the ICQ and of the more traditional questionnaires, and the results thereof, are described.

The effects of information and social conformity on opinion change.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallinson, Daniel J; Hatemi, Peter K

2018-01-01

Extant research shows that social pressures influence acts of political participation, such as turning out to vote. However, we know less about how conformity pressures affect one's deeply held political values and opinions. Using a discussion-based experiment, we untangle the unique and combined effects of information and social pressure on a political opinion that is highly salient, politically charged, and part of one's identity. We find that while information plays a role in changing a person's opinion, the social delivery of that information has the greatest effect. Thirty three percent of individuals in our treatment condition change their opinion due to the social delivery of information, while ten percent respond only to social pressure and ten percent respond only to information. Participants that change their opinion due to social pressure in our experiment are more conservative politically, conscientious, and neurotic than those that did not.

The effects of information and social conformity on opinion change

Science.gov (United States)

Hatemi, Peter K.

2018-01-01

Extant research shows that social pressures influence acts of political participation, such as turning out to vote. However, we know less about how conformity pressures affect one’s deeply held political values and opinions. Using a discussion-based experiment, we untangle the unique and combined effects of information and social pressure on a political opinion that is highly salient, politically charged, and part of one’s identity. We find that while information plays a role in changing a person’s opinion, the social delivery of that information has the greatest effect. Thirty three percent of individuals in our treatment condition change their opinion due to the social delivery of information, while ten percent respond only to social pressure and ten percent respond only to information. Participants that change their opinion due to social pressure in our experiment are more conservative politically, conscientious, and neurotic than those that did not. PMID:29718958

Building reactor operator sustain expert system with C language integrated production system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouyang Qin; Hu Shouyin; Wang Ruipian

2002-01-01

The development of the reactor operator sustain expert system is introduced, the capability of building reactor operator sustain expert system is discussed with C Language Integrated Production System (Clips), and a simple antitype of expert system is illustrated. The limitation of building reactor operator sustain expert system with Clips is also discussed

Paradigms and building tools for real-time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, U.; Flasinski, M.; Hagge, L.; Ohrenberg, K.

1994-01-01

An expert system is a software which can simulate the problem solving behavior of a human expert. The rule-based paradigm is chosen to describe the different aspects involved in expert system development. Differences between expert systems and common procedural or object-oriented programs are investigated. Expert system shells are introduced as a building tool for expert systems, together with some guidelines on the evaluation of such shells. A discussion of special needs for real-time expert system development concludes the paper

Socio-compatible energy policies. Experts' opinion on behalf of the Federal Government. Sozialvertraegliche Energiepolitik. Ein Gutachten fuer die Bundesregierung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O.; Albrecht, G.; Kotte, U.; Peters, H.P.; Stegelmann, H.U.

1985-01-01

The socio-compatibility project comprises three central analytical elements: 1) The arborescent value analysis: Eminent social groups (such as the trade-unions or the ecological institutes) were questioned on their values and criteria applied to evaluate different energy systems. 2) The energy system and scenario impact analysis: Indicators deduced from the arborescent value analysis serve to approximately cover the value dimensions affected by above criteria. 3) Impact analysis weighing executed by a group of arbitrarily chosen citizens. All reflections considered, it is evident that none of the energy policies discussed may claim the title 'socio-compatible'. The individual, i.e. neither scientist nor politician, cannot decide upon the socio-compatibility of one or the other concept. An altogether socially compatible solution accepted and classified as such by different social groups may only crystallize and be set against different options by the political formation of opinion. The studys' primary concern lies in furnishing information, i.e. aids for politicians having to decide on energy policies. Above all the study aimed at finding out about reactions, social protest, opposition or approval to be coped with by those who, having the say in political matters, want to speak up for one of the energy policies under public discussion. (orig./HSCH).

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

2012-05-15

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Public opinion and nuclear power decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benson, B.

1991-01-01

This document discusses public opinion regarding nuclear power which is particularly difficult to tie down because of five important paradoxes that characterize it: it can be based on sound reason, but also on intense emotion; it is both national and local in perspective; at varying times it has seen nuclear power as both ''clean'' and ''dirty''; it believes nuclear power is both economic, and uneconomic; and nuclear power is perceived as having a fairly safe record, but being potentially unsafe. Equally as complex as the process by which public opinion is formed is the process by which it is converted into public policy. The American political system has numerous checks and balances designed to moderate the power of public opinion. A complex series of legislative, judicial, and executive branch hurdles must be cleared before any idea, however popular, can become day-to-day operating reality in government. As a result, major changes in policy or programs are difficult, and we may expect that nuclear power will be no different; radical change in one direction or the other is unlikely. Nevertheless, carefully focused programs could achieve modest progress, and carefully designed public opinion surveys could support such programs

The role of the article 31 experts group in harmonising the standards for radiation protection in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Govaerts, P.

2002-01-01

Article 2 of the Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community) treaty requires the establishment of uniform safety standards to be implemented by each member state: Article 2, b: In order to perform its task the community shall establish uniform safety standards to protect the health of workers and of the general public and ensure that they are applied. The scope of those standards is defined by Article 30 and relates to doses compatible with adequate safety; levels of exposure and contamination; the fundamental principles governing the health surveillance of workers. Article 31 stipulates the decision making process with respect to those standards. Article 31: The basic standards shall be worked out by the Commission after it has obtained the opinion of a group of persons appointed by the Scientific and Technical Committee from among scientific experts, and in particular public health experts, in the Member States. The Commission shall obtain the opinion of the Economic and Social Committee on these basic standards. After consulting the Assembly the Council shall, on a proposal from the Commission, which shall forward to it the opinions from these Committees, establish the basic safety standards; the Council shall act by a qualified majority

Preserving experience through expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

1989-01-01

Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

Continental mapping of groundwater dependent ecosystems: A methodological framework to integrate diverse data and expert opinion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanya M. Doody

2017-04-01

New hydrological insights: It was identified that 34% of Australia’s landscape potentially contains GDEs of which 5% are classified with a high GDE potential. In addition, new continental scale insights into landscape processes where provided by the derivation and integration of remote sensing products using MODIS and Landsat. These products identify landscapes which are ‘wetter’ or ‘greener’ than surrounding areas, indicating these landscapes are accessing additional water, such as groundwater, supplementary to rainfall. The method reported also demonstrates the importance of expert knowledge, obtained through literature and expert elicitation, in order to provide a conceptual understanding of regional ecohydrological processes to develop rules of GDE dependency that would guide the extrapolation of known GDEs.

Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

2017-08-01

Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

Analyzing online political discussions: Methodological considerations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vergeer, M.R.M.; Hermans, E.A.H.M.

2008-01-01

Online political discussions are thought to lead to more political engagement and empowerment of peripheral groups in society and thereby contributing to deliberative citizenship. Because people have increased opportunities to voice their political opinions and publish these for a potentially large

Expert system technology for the military

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

1988-01-01

This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)

2016-03-11

Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.

The experience of a local partnership with experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Draulans, H.

2004-01-01

STOLA is an abbreviation for Structured Study group for Low-level short-lived radioactive waste, with all the actors of our small community of Dessel. You may know: social culture and economic factors of course all play a role in radioactive waste management and we work together with the experts of ONDRAF/NIRAS. But I am sure that was explained to you sufficiently yesterday and I can skip all that. 70 000 m 3 of low-level radioactive waste can be disposed of in our area and that only under certain safety conditions for humans and the environment. Of course one of the conditions is also that it has an added value for our municipality. In the past four years, I have participated in the activities of STOLA in Dessel and also led them. In that period, I met many, many experts, I spoke to them; I also really listened to them and together we worked on this disposal process. I will give you my personal opinion on that contact with those experts. Although I am going to be one in a long list of professors giving lectures today, I may not be the most scientific of speakers: I will be talking mainly from my experience with the people from STOLA. (author)

Aerosol measurements and nuclear accidents: a reconsideration, report of the round table discussion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raes, F.

1988-01-01

Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) is commonly divided into routine and emergency monitoring. Routine REM must demonstrate the adequacy of controls on releases as well as the compliance with radiological standards. It should also be able to give an early warning in case of abnormal concentrations, so that emergency REM may be initiated promptly. It should be clear, however, that stack monitoring and other in-plant measurements are the primary information sources for abnormal conditions. Emergency REM should rapidly assess the extent of an accident and provide the information needed for taking countermeasures. The collection of in-depth information on environmental processes for model validation is usually considered as an additional benefit of both routine and emergency REM. In discussing techniques for measuring radioactive aerosols, in particular the need for new and more sophisticated techniques, one must consider the objectives of REM, define how much weight should be given to each of them, and investigate whether new techniques might help in meeting the objectives. The opinions of the experts are organized into three chapters: the first compiles experiences and opinions about radioactive aerosol monitoring and defines the experimental needs for such monitoring with respect to early warning and early assessment in case of nuclear accidents; the second chapter discusses radioactive aerosol monitoring from the point of view of the scientist who wants to increase or validate his knowledge about the behaviour of radionuclides in the atmosphere; the third chapter reviews recent developments in field of aerosol and nuclear metrology and their interest for nuclear safety. Each chapter ends with a number of conclusions and recommendations

Conflicting perspectives compromising discussions on cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Groarke, J

2010-09-01

Healthcare professionals, patients and their relatives are expected to discuss resuscitation together. This study aims to identify the differences in the knowledge base and understanding of these parties. Questionnaires examining knowledge and opinion on resuscitation matters were completed during interviews of randomly selected doctors, nurses and the general public. 70% doctors, 24% nurses and 0% of a public group correctly estimated survival to discharge following in-hospital resuscitation attempts. Deficiencies were identified in doctor and nurse knowledge of ethics governing resuscitation decisions. Public opinion often conflicts with ethical guidelines. Public understanding of the nature of cardiopulmonary arrests and resuscitation attempts; and of the implications of a \\'Do Not Attempt Resuscitation (DNAR)\\' order is poor. Television medical dramas are the primary source of resuscitation knowledge. Deficiencies in healthcare professionals\\' knowledge of resuscitation ethics and outcomes may compromise resuscitation decisions. Educational initiatives to address deficiencies are necessary. Parties involved in discussion on resuscitation do not share the same knowledge base reducing the likelihood of meaningful discussion. Public misapprehensions surrounding resuscitation must be identified and corrected during discussion.

Implications of Public Opinion for Space Program Planning, 1980 - 2000

Science.gov (United States)

Overholt, W.; Wiener, A. J.; Yokelson, D.

1975-01-01

The effect of public opinion on future space programs is discussed in terms of direct support, apathy, or opposition, and concern about the tax burden, budgetary pressures, and national priorities. Factors considered include: the salience and visibility of NASA as compared with other issues, the sources of general pressure on the federal budget which could affect NASA, the public's opinions regarding the size and priority of NASA'S budget, the degree to which the executive can exercise leverage over NASA's budget through influencing or disregarding public opinion, the effects of linkages to other issues on space programs, and the public's general attitudes toward the progress of science.

Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

Public opinion and reaction to the Belene NPP construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jolov, G.; Josifov, A.

1990-01-01

The chapter offers a study on the social factors related to the Belene project including an analysis of the public attitude, the public opinion priority motivated pros and cons and the political aspects of the problems. The information sources of the sociological study are discussed. There are stipulations over the possible behavior in case of commissioning. A paragraph deals with the credibility of the opinion and the study of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences among different social groups. 1 tab. (R.Ts.)

A Child's Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Pate, Joshua W; Hush, Julia M; Hancock, Mark J; Moseley, G Lorimer; Butler, David S; Simons, Laura E; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-15

A child's 'concept of pain' refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts' opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child's concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child's concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child's concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child's concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8-12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child's concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child's concept of pain.

Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

2000-01-01

This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Science.gov (United States)

Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

D 3.6 Africa: Discussion report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mandrup, Thomas

2017-01-01

in general, sub-matter experts, experts on peace and conflict studies, and practitioners in crisis management. A total of eighteen speakers explored the effectiveness of international assistance to the four African examples from different perspectives, drawing a rather pessimistic picture of the current......One round-table event was organised within the framework of Work Package III, part of the IECEU project. The events focused on the WP3’s four case studies: Libya, CAR, South Sudan and DRC. This report provides information on the round-table event and presents the main points of discussion...... that emerged during it. The round-table discussion and the subsequent seminar on the Effectiveness of International Assistance and Local Ownership in the four case studies was organised by the Royal Danish Defence College on 31 October-1. November 2016. The round-table participants included experts on Africa...

Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

1Maryam Kazemi

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan. Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Kazemi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan.  Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

Cooperation of experts' opinion, experiment and computer code development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolfert, K.; Hicken, E.

The connection between code development, code assessment and confidence in the analysis of transients will be discussed. In this manner, the major sources of errors in the codes and errors in applications of the codes will be shown. Standard problem results emphasize that, in order to have confidence in licensing statements, the codes must be physically realistic and the code user must be qualified and experienced. We will discuss why there is disagreement between the licensing authority and vendor concerning assessment of the fullfillment of safety goal requirements. The answer to the question lies in the different confidence levels of the assessment of transient analysis. It is expected that a decrease in the disagreement will result from an increased confidence level. Strong efforts will be made to increase this confidence level through improvements in the codes, experiments and related organizational strcutures. Because of the low probability for loss-of-coolant-accidents in the nuclear industry, assessment must rely on analytical techniques and experimental investigations. (orig./HP) [de

Nonconformity defines the self: the role of minority opinion status in self-concept clarity.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Kimberly Rios; Wheeler, S Christian

2010-03-01

Drawing on distinctiveness and social identity theories, the present studies tested whether minority opinion holders would have a more clearly defined sense of self than majority opinion holders. In Study 1, participants who were induced to believe that they held a minority opinion on a controversial issue had higher subsequent self-concept clarity scores than did those who were induced to believe that they held a majority opinion, controlling for self-esteem. Furthermore, the relationship between minority opinion status and self-concept clarity was strongest among participants whose opinions were highly expressive of their values (Studies 2 and 3), as well as among participants who identified strongly with the group in which they were a minority (Study 3). Theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.

Descriptive Opinion “Boja Have Skate” Community in Boja

OpenAIRE

Kinasih, Octy Ayu

2016-01-01

“Boja Have Skate” is a skateboard community in Boja. Boja is a district in Semarang. The discussion of this thesis is about member's opinion about “Boja Have Skate” community in Boja. Boja teenagers have experienced the new culture process through skateboard. This research purposes to know about the opinion of “Boja Have Skate” community. Ten members of “Boja Have Skate” are taken as the respondents. The analyze and research use theory of social community and the use of cultural product....

Identification of component performance degradations caused by ageing using expert panels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitoi, Mirela; Cristea, Dumitru; Pavelescu, Margarit

2008-01-01

Since the component ageing can be considered as one of the important causes of operating events reported, the identification of ageing effects and implementation of appropriate methods for mitigation of these effects represent an important preoccupation of many organizations and research activities. In the process of identification of ageing manifestation we can use either analysis of operational data or expert opinions, each of the methods having specific advantages and disadvantages. A reasonable combination of statistical, structural reliability and expert panel methods would be an appropriate approach in the failure probability assessments. In case when there are not enough operational data, the expert judgments represent the only viable alternative in the effort dedicated to identification of components and systems vulnerability to ageing. The panel use judgments to analyse the degradation produced by ageing, to score the components based on specific criteria and to rank them relative to one another. The paper presents the approach developed, including evaluation criteria and assigning indices for assessment of particular types of ageing degradation (the case of secondary system of TRIGA reactor). (authors)

On the use of expert judgments to estimate the pressure increment in the Sequoyah containment at vessel breach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhibber, S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

1994-01-01

The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts' beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence

Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

2016-06-01

Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems - from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14-16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size of 45 experts (median of the rank

[The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

Science.gov (United States)

Stojer, Joanna

2011-01-01

The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasselbring, Ted S.

1986-01-01

The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

Opinion and Persuasion

OpenAIRE

Ioan Constantin Dima; Daniela Gîfu

2014-01-01

The research proves that persuasion has two types of objectives. Its main objective is the change of opinion. Its fundamental and foundational objectives are the change in attitude, generic conduct and situational behaviour. The main objective controls the fundamental objectives. The change in attitudes and conduct/behaviour is presided by changes in opinion. Persuasion is thus shown to be primarily and ultimately a matter of opinion. As such, its mechanism to manage and generate ...

On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, E.

1996-01-01

Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

2011-07-01

This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

Opinion dynamics in activity-driven networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dandan; Han, Dun; Ma, Jing; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Khouw, Timothy; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-10-01

Social interaction between individuals constantly affects the development of their personal opinions. Previous models such as the Deffuant model and the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model have assumed that individuals only update their opinions after interacting with neighbors whose opinions are similar to their own. However, people are capable of communicating widely with all of their neighbors to gather their ideas and opinions, even if they encounter a number of opposing attitudes. We propose a model in which agents listen to the opinions of all their neighbors. Continuous opinion dynamics are investigated in activity-driven networks with a tolerance threshold. We study how the initial opinion distribution, tolerance threshold, opinion-updating speed, and activity rate affect the evolution of opinion. We find that when the initial fraction of positive opinion is small, all opinions become negative by the end of the simulation. As the initial fraction of positive opinions rises above a certain value —about 0.45— the final fraction of positive opinions sharply increases and eventually equals 1. Increased tolerance threshold δ is found to lead to a more varied final opinion distribution. We also find that if the negative opinion has an initial advantage, the final fraction of negative opinion increases and reaches its peak as the updating speed λ approaches 0.5. Finally we show that the lower the activity rate of individuals, the greater the fluctuation range of their opinions.

The admissibility of offender profiling in courtroom: a review of legal issues and court opinions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosco, Dario; Zappalà, Angelo; Santtila, Pekka

2010-01-01

What is the future of Offender Profiling? Is it an important field of forensic science or is it only a glamorous art? After the trilogy "Daubert-Joiner-Kumho" and after the last version, in 2009, of the Federal Rules of Evidence (F.R.E.), the opinion of American Courts concerning the admissibility of scientific evidence has changed, and the questions above can now have new answers. The change is closely tied to the perceived difference between hard and soft sciences and, in this way, the new gatekeeping role of the Courts also concerns whether offender profiling can be regarded as scientific evidence and if offender profiling should be admitted in the Courtroom as scientific evidence. In this work we present a comprehensive review concerning the most important Court opinions in U.S.A, U.K., Canada and Australia, about reliability and admissibility of offender profiling, in its different forensic application, as scientific evidence, and we suggest how and when an expert witness in the field of offender profiling can, in the light of these opinions, be admitted in Court.

Expert-systems and computer-based industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrien, J.F.

1987-01-01

Framatome makes wide use of expert systems, computer-assisted engineering, production management and personnel training. It has set up separate business units and subsidiaries and also participates in other companies which have the relevant expertise. Five examples of the products and services available in these are discussed. These are in the field of applied artificial intelligence and expert-systems, in integrated computer-aid design and engineering, structural analysis, computer-related products and services and document management systems. The structure of the companies involved and the work they are doing is discussed. (UK)

Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

2015-01-01

In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Handbook of VLSI chip design and expert systems

CERN Document Server

Schwarz, A F

1993-01-01

Handbook of VLSI Chip Design and Expert Systems provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of expert systems, which provides a knowledge-based approach to problem solving. This book discusses the use of expert systems in every possible subtask of VLSI chip design as well as in the interrelations between the subtasks.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of design automation, which can be identified as Computer-Aided Design of Circuits and Systems (CADCAS). This text then presents the progress in artificial intelligence, with emphasis on expert systems.

Travel opinion leaders and seekers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yoo, Kyung-Hyan; Gretzel, Ulrike; Zach, Florian

2011-01-01

While opinion leadership has been recognized as important in tourism, there has been very little empirical research investigating the phenomenon. Given new developments in social media technologies, it is especially important to understand whether travel opinion leadership and seeking are drivers...... of specific social media perceptions and behaviours. Based on an online survey of US online travellers, this paper seeks to identify travel opinion leaders and seekers and their characteristics. Further, the research conducted investigated linkages between travel opinion leadership/seeking and travel social...... media use. The findings suggest that travel opinion leadership and seeking are distinct but connected. Both opinion leaders and seekers are technology savvy, young, educated, involved in travel planning and engaged in social media use for travel. What distinguishes opinion leaders is their greater...

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan E. Chamberlain

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

Jess, the Java expert system shell

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Friedman-Hill, E.J.

1997-11-01

This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

Expert Graphics System Research in the Department of the Navy.

Science.gov (United States)

Duff, Jon M.

1987-01-01

Presents current trends in the development of expert systems within the Department of the Navy, particularly research into expert graphics systems intended to support the Authoring Instructional Methods (AIM) research project. Defines artificial intelligence and expert systems. Discusses the operations and functions of the Navy's intelligent…

Advertising and Irreversible Opinion Spreading in Complex Social Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Candia, Julián

Irreversible opinion spreading phenomena are studied on small-world and scale-free networks by means of the magnetic Eden model, a nonequilibrium kinetic model for the growth of binary mixtures in contact with a thermal bath. In this model, the opinion of an individual is affected by those of their acquaintances, but opinion changes (analogous to spin flips in an Ising-like model) are not allowed. We focus on the influence of advertising, which is represented by external magnetic fields. The interplay and competition between temperature and fields lead to order-disorder transitions, which are found to also depend on the link density and the topology of the complex network substrate. The effects of advertising campaigns with variable duration, as well as the best cost-effective strategies to achieve consensus within different scenarios, are also discussed.

Social workers as "experts" in the family court system: is evidence-based practice a missing link or host-created knowledge?

Science.gov (United States)

Prescott, Dana E

2013-10-01

The graduate school curriculum for social workers requires that students learn to critically distinguish between opinion-based knowledge and evidence-based practices, or empirically-supported interventions. Once graduated, licensed social workers are often called upon to offer diagnostic and predictive opinions as experts in a variety of macro-environments. When the family courts are that "host" environment, social workers proffer expert opinions that may categorize and label parents or children for purposes of a judge's allocation of physical or legal custody. In this article, it is suggested that the social work profession, within all three domains of education, practice, and research, should more precisely link the design and fidelity of an evidence-based practice (EBP) with its potential misapplication or warping when proffered as science in "host" environments like family courts. As Foucault and other scholars warn, the failure to verify that an intervention is applied correctly may actually enhance the risk of social injustice by interpreting and translating EBP knowledge in the non-empirical form of authority-by-license. This article, therefore, proposes that the social work profession, from the classroom to the field, has an obligation to thoroughly understand and engage interdisciplinary practices that assure respect for the strengths and limits of social work knowledge.

A blended knowledge translation initiative to improve colorectal cancer staging [ISRCTN56824239

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan David P

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A significant gap has been documented between best practice and the actual practice of surgery. Our group identified that colorectal cancer staging in Ontario was suboptimal and subsequently developed a knowledge translation strategy using the principles of social marketing and the influence of expert and local opinion leaders for colorectal cancer. Methods/Design Opinion leaders were identified using the Hiss methodology. Hospitals in Ontario were cluster-randomized to one of two intervention arms. Both groups were exposed to a formal continuing medical education session given by the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer. In the treatment group the local Opinion Leader for colorectal cancer was detailed by the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer and received a toolkit. Forty-two centres agreed to have the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer come and give a formal continuing medical education session that lasted between 50 minutes and 4 hours. No centres refused the intervention. These sessions were generally well attended by most surgeons, pathologists and other health care professionals at each centre. In addition all but one of the local opinion leaders for colorectal cancer met with the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer for the academic detailing session that lasted between 15 and 30 minutes. Discussion We have enacted a unique study that has attempted to induce practice change among surgeons and pathologists using an adapted social marketing model that utilized the influence of both expert and local opinion leaders for colorectal cancer in a large geographic area with diverse practice settings.

Climate of opinion and information behaviour in the context of nuclear energy and the ENSI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonfadelli, H.; Kristiansen, S.

2012-11-01

This interim report issued by the University of Zurich for the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) was elaborated as a result of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan. The report discusses the questions raised concerning the independence of certain members of the inspectorate and discusses the results of an initial survey on the profile and reputation of the inspectorate. The development of public opinion concerning various aspects of nuclear energy over several years and for various categories of the population is noted in tables. Also, large changes in opinion after the Fukushima accident are noted. Risk assessments, confidence in the regulatory instances as well as opinions on how nuclear energy should be regulated are examined. Also, information and media use in connection with nuclear energy are looked at. Finally, the most important conclusions of the study are presented and discussed

Public Opinion Survey Data to Measure Sympathy and Support for Islamist Terrorism: A Look at Muslim Opinions on Al Qaeda and IS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex P. Schmid

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This Research Paper seeks to explore what ‘sympathy’ and ‘support’ actually mean when it comes to terrorism. The text addresses some of the problems of public opinion surveys, includes a conceptual discussion and then continues with the presentation of data from public opinion surveys. It notes that opinion polls can be helpful in gauging (verbal support for terrorism but also finds that the questions asked in opinion polls are generally lacking precision while the answers are often influenced by political pressures. When translating (generally low percentages of sympathy and support for al Qaeda and so-called Islamic State in various countries into actual population figures, it emerges that there is a sizeable radical milieu in both Muslim-majority countries and in Western Muslim diasporas, held together by the world wide web of the internet. While large majorities of Muslims in most countries have no love for jihadist extremists, there are more than enough breeding grounds for terrorism. The Research Paper concludes that better instruments for measuring sympathy and support for jihadist terrorism are needed to inform counter-terrorist strategies.

Defining the actinic keratosis field: a literature review and discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

Figueras Nart, I; Cerio, R; Dirschka, T; Dréno, B; Lear, J T; Pellacani, G; Peris, K; Ruiz de Casas, A

2018-04-01

Despite the chronic and increasingly prevalent nature of actinic keratosis (AK) and existing evidence supporting assessment of the entire cancerization field during clinical management, a standardized definition of the AK field to aid in the understanding and characterization of the disease is lacking. The objective of this review was to present and appraise the available evidence describing the AK cancerization field, with the aim of determining a precise definition of the AK field in terms of its molecular (including genetic and immunological), histological and clinical characteristics. Eight European dermatologists collaborated to conduct a review and expert appraisal of articles detailing the characteristics of the AK field. Articles published in English before August 2016 were identified using PubMed and independently selected for further assessment according to predefined preliminary inclusion and exclusion criteria. In addition, a retrospective audit of patients with AK was performed to define the AK field in clinical terms. A total of 32 review articles and 47 original research articles provided evidence of sun-induced molecular (including genetic and immunological) and histological skin changes in the sun-exposed area affected by AK. However, the available literature was deemed insufficient to inform a clinical definition of the AK field. During the retrospective audit, visible signs of sun damage in 40 patients with AK were assessed. Telangiectasia, atrophy and pigmentation disorders emerged as 'reliable or very reliable' indicators of AK field based on expert opinion, whereas 'sand paper' was deemed a 'moderately reliable' indicator. This literature review has revealed a significant gap of evidence to inform a clinical definition of the AK field. Therefore, the authors instead propose a clinical definition of field cancerization based on the identification of visible signs of sun damage that are reliable indicators of field cancerization based on expert

Public opinion polls on nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heller, E.D.

1980-07-01

Future developments in the attitude towards nuclear energy can not be predicted on account of this public opinion survey. The survey shows just how many different factors influence the attitude towards issues of public and political interst. For this reason in particular, it would be desirable to include such aspects into future surveys. The survey shows that public opinion polls quite often investigate on the ordering party's opinion rather than the pollees opinion. The attempt at making public opinion polls a means of forming political opinions, implying a certain desired opinion to be the majority opinion has brought those polls into disrepute. If real results are not required and manipulation prevails, results are prevented, which must not be blamed on the principle of public opinion polls as such. (orig.) [de

Opinion Integration and Summarization

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yue

2011-01-01

As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Griffith, Steven

This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-02-01

One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

America's Opinion Leader Historians on Behalf of Success.

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Ronald H.

1983-01-01

Examines the rhetorical role of several twentieth century historians who were opinion leaders on behalf of the American way of achieving success: by emulating the earlier qualities of our frontier and founding fathers. Discusses the role of Frederick Turner Jackson, Charles A. Beard, Carl Becker, Allan Nevins, and others. (PD)

The Complex Neutrosophic Soft Expert Relation and Its Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashraf Al-Quran

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel soft computing technique, called the complex neutrosophic soft expert relation (CNSER, to evaluate the degree of interaction between two hybrid models called complex neutrosophic soft expert sets (CNSESs. CNSESs are used to represent two-dimensional data that are imprecise, uncertain, incomplete and indeterminate. Moreover, it has a mechanism to incorporate the parameter set and the opinions of all experts in one model, thus making it highly suitable for use in decision-making problems where the time factor plays a key role in determining the final decision. The complex neutrosophic soft expert set and complex neutrosophic soft expert relation are both defined. Utilizing the properties of CNSER introduced, an empirical study is conducted on the relationship between the variability of the currency exchange rate and Malaysian exports and the time frame (phase of the interaction between these two variables. This study is supported further by an algorithm to determine the type and the degree of this relationship. A comparison between different existing relations and CNSER to show the ascendancy of our proposed CNSER is provided. Then, the notion of the inverse, complement and composition of CNSERs along with some related theorems and properties are introduced. Finally, we define the symmetry, transitivity and reflexivity of CNSERs, as well as the equivalence relation and equivalence classes on CNSESs. Some interesting properties are also obtained.

Treatment Guidelines for Preoperative Radiation Therapy for Retroperitoneal Sarcoma: Preliminary Consensus of an International Expert Panel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldini, Elizabeth H., E-mail: ebaldini@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Wang, Dian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Haas, Rick L.M. [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Catton, Charles N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Indelicato, Daniel J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida Medical Center, Jacksonville, Florida (United States); Kirsch, David G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Roberge, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l' Université de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Salerno, Kilian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York (United States); Deville, Curtiland [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Washington, DC (United States); Guadagnolo, B. Ashleigh [Department of Radiation Oncology, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); O' Sullivan, Brian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Petersen, Ivy A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (United States); Le Pechoux, Cecile [Department of Radiotherapy, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Abrams, Ross A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); DeLaney, Thomas F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2015-07-01

Purpose: Evidence for external beam radiation therapy (RT) as part of treatment for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) is limited. Preoperative RT is the subject of a current randomized trial, but the results will not be available for many years. In the meantime, many practitioners use preoperative RT for RPS, and although this approach is used in practice, there are no radiation treatment guidelines. An international expert panel was convened to develop consensus treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Methods and Materials: An expert panel of 15 academic radiation oncologists who specialize in the treatment of sarcoma was assembled. A systematic review of reports related to RT for RPS, RT for extremity sarcoma, and RT-related toxicities for organs at risk was performed. Due to the paucity of high-quality published data on the subject of RT for RPS, consensus recommendations were based largely on expert opinion derived from clinical experience and extrapolation of relevant published reports. It is intended that these clinical practice guidelines be updated as pertinent data become available. Results: Treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS are presented. Conclusions: An international panel of radiation oncologists who specialize in sarcoma reached consensus guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Many of the recommendations are based on expert opinion because of the absence of higher level evidence and, thus, are best regarded as preliminary. We emphasize that the role of preoperative RT for RPS has not been proven, and we await data from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) study of preoperative radiotherapy plus surgery versus surgery alone for patients with RPS. Further data are also anticipated pertaining to normal tissue dose constraints, particularly for bowel tolerance. Nonetheless, as we await these data, the guidelines herein can be used to establish treatment uniformity to aid future assessments of efficacy

[Ophthalmological opinions for liability affairs material damage (Part I) (author's transl)].

Science.gov (United States)

Burggraf, H

1979-02-01

German law abides anyone reponsible for the damage he or she has caused to another person's property or corporal integrity. This includes all medical costs directed towards the restitution of health as well as economical damage in direct consequence of the corporal damage. An ophthalmological expert is to state his opinion therefore in accordance with the specific conditions of every individual case and not just according to general charts. Financial compensation is only granted for the actual results of damage inquestion. Prior damage and disability have to be remarked but not to justify a financial compensation. The question of smart-money is dealt with in Part II.

Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hakala, S.; Wilson, B.

1999-01-01

Transparency and certainty are essential qualities for an acceptable and trusted valuation method. Based on the evaluation of the expert judgement method developed in the Delphi I study both of these criteria may be only partially accomplished by such a method. As for the technical procedure the method is well documented and transparency is good. Argumentation of the judgements, however, should be increased. The quality of the valuation indexes is explicitly available, but their certainty is very low for most interventions. The opinions of the experts differ much from each other. How much this depends on different values and how much on differences in knowledge etc. is impossible to assess. Also, how much the technique used and the statistical handling of the expert answers may have impacted the eventual scores of different interventions is difficult to assess. However, application of the expert judgement by means of the Delphi-technique to LCA valuation is a new idea, and, consequently, the method is still very much under development, far from maturity. This should be taken into account when considering the results out of the evaluation of the case study, which was the third of the kind in Europe

Operation and Structure of an Artificial Intelligence Expert Consultative System for Reading and Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Balajthy, Ernest

1989-01-01

The article examines decision-making expert systems and discusses their implications for diagnosis and prescription of reading difficulties. A detailed description of how a reading diagnostic expert system might operate to aid classroom teachers is followed by a discussion of advantages and limitations of expert systems for educational use.…

Computers start to think with expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-03-21

A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

Introducing Managers to Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Finlay, Paul N.; And Others

1991-01-01

Describes a short course to expose managers to expert systems, consisting of (1) introductory lecture; (2) supervised computer tutorial; (3) lecture and discussion about knowledge structuring and modeling; and (4) small group work on a case study using computers. (SK)

Omalizumab for treating chronic spontaneous urticaria: an expert review on efficacy and safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Giménez-Arnau, Ana M

2017-03-01

Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) is characterized by the recurrence of itchy hives and/or angioedema for greater than six weeks, with no known external trigger. Omalizumab, a humanized, recombinant, monoclonal anti-IgE antibody, is the only approved add-on therapy for H1-antihistamine refractory CSU patients. Areas covered: The objective of this article is to discuss the mechanism of action, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of omalizumab for the treatment of CSU. The review also summarizes efficacy and safety data from proof-of-concept, phase II (X-CUISITE, MYSTIQUE), and pivotal phase III omalizumab studies (ASTERIA I, ASTERIA II, and GLACIAL). Expert opinion: Omalizumab is a clinically effective and safe biological therapy for treating H1-antihistamine refractory CSU patients. It significantly reduces CSU symptoms (hives, itch and angioedema), and improves patient health-related quality of life. While omalizumab is already integral to the treatment of antihistamine refractory CSU, widespread use will depend on legal and economic factors, as well as improvements in the early and accurate diagnosis of CSU patients who would benefit from treatment.

[Women's opinion on abortion legalization in a middle size county in southern Brazil].

Science.gov (United States)

César, J A; Gomes, G; Horta, B L; de Oliveira, A K; Saraiva, A K; Pardo, D O; Silva, L M; Rodghiero, C L; Gross, M R

1997-12-01

Induced abortion is the main cause of maternal death in Brazil. Question of its legalization has been the subject of frequent discussion. In order to assess the influence of the variables affecting the opinion of women of reproductive age, a population-based systematic sample in the county of Rio Grande (Southern Brazil) was examined. Of a total of 1,456 interviews 30% endorsed the legalization, whatever the circumstances; this percentage was directly associated with age, schooling, family income and previous induced abortion (p abortion on favourable opinion. Schooling and previous induced abortion were the main determinants of women's favorable opinions regarding abortion legalization.

Expert systems for superalloy studies

Science.gov (United States)

Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

1990-01-01

There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2015-10-01

This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

Clarifying Delirium Management: Practical, Evidenced-Based, Expert Recommendations for Clinical Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Pirrello, Rosene D.; Hirst, Jeremy M.; Buckholz, Gary T.; Ferris, Frank D.

2013-01-01

Abstract Delirium is highly prevalent in those with serious or advanced medical illnesses. It is associated with many adverse consequences, including significant patient, family, and health care provider distress. This article suggests a novel approach to delirium assessment and management and provides useful, practical guidance for clinicians based on a complete review of the existing literature and the expert clinical opinion of the authors and their colleagues, derived from over a decade of collective bedside experience. Comprehensive assessment includes careful description of observed symptoms, signs, and behaviors; and an understanding of the patient's situation, including primary diagnosis, associated comorbidities, functional status, and prognosis. The importance of incorporating goals of care for the patient and family is discussed. The concepts of potential reversibility versus irreversible delirium and delirium subtype are proffered, with a description of how diagnostic and management strategies follow from these concepts. Pharmacological interventions that provide rapid, effective, and safe relief are presented. Employing both pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions, including patient and family education, improves symptoms and relieves patient and family distress, whether the delirium is reversible or irreversible, hyperactive or hypoactive. All interventions can be provided in any setting of care, including patients' homes. PMID:23480299

Public opinion on nuclear energy - background and causes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudloff, W.

1990-01-01

The nuclear energy discussion is as old as the discovery of nuclear fission. Its technical harnessing is one of the most important basic innovations of this century. The ambivalence of nuclear energy - peaceful and aggresssive utilization habe been equally realized - and potential endangerment by fission products have put a strain on its acceptance worldwide. The forming of public opinion is further complicated by the complexity of the system we call 'nuclear energy'. The beginning of its commercial utilization coincided with the first awareness of the 'limits to growth'. In many discussion and for many groups, also ideologically based ones, nuclear energy plays a substitute role in the social political debate on the 'right' way into the future. By means of one-sided and sometimes distorted representations, many media have contributed to the confusion. Industry and the business world, being interested in nuclear energy, have endeavored to take a stand in its defence, although not always qualitatively or quantitatively appropriate. These endeavors were impeded by sporadic strong politicalization of all relevant decisions. The specific roll behavior of those participating in the discussion was also at times a hindrance. The nuclear energy discussion is not locally limited, it is rather international. This should be taken into consideration in all endeavors for its acceptance. The beginning world-wide climate discussion will inveterately alter the position of nuclear energy and the public's opinion of it. (author)

Creative industries, creative class and competitiveness: expert opinions critically appraised

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bontje, M.A.; Musterd, S.

2009-01-01

In the debate on urban and regional competitiveness, it has become fashionable to stress the growing importance of creativity for economic development. Especially scientist-consultants with a keen eye for what politicians and business people want to hear have taken centre stage in this discussion.

[Medical expert consensus in AH on the clinical use of triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in Spain].

Science.gov (United States)

Mazón, P; Galve, E; Gómez, J; Gorostidi, M; Górriz, J L; Mediavilla, J D

The opinion of experts (different specialties) on the triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in clinical practice may differ. Online questionnaire with controversial aspects of the triple therapy answered by panel of experts in hypertension (HT) using two-round modified Delphi method. The questionnaire was completed by 158 experts: Internal Medicine (49), Nephrology (26), Cardiology (83). Consensus was reached (agreement) on 27/45 items (60%); 7 items showed differences statistically significant. Consensus was reached regarding: Predictive factors in the need for combination therapy and its efficacy vs. increasing the dose of a pretreatment, and advantage of triple therapy (prescription/adherence/cost/pressure control) vs. free combination. This consensus provides an overview of the clinical use of triple therapy in moderate-severe and resistant/difficult to control HT. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Application of expert system in library and information science: a review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhatti, A.R.

1988-09-01

This study seeks to provide an overview of the current state of development in the application of expert system in technology in the field of library and information science. The study starts briefly looking into the capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in general and then its relevance to LIS (Library Information System) work. A basic introduction to expert system technology and outgrowth of AI research is given. The major components of a generalized expert system are discussed in some detail, and the ways in which system development can be approached are looked at. The main area of expert system applications in library and information science are discussed, looking at cataloguing, classification, reference work and library management etc. (author)

Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

2014-01-01

Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

Online Discussion about Sexuality Education in Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Broadbear, James T.; Broadbear, Barbara C.

2012-01-01

Sexuality education in schools continues to be a controversial issue although public debate has seemingly calmed in recent years. Dialogue about the value and purpose of sexuality education for adolescents can provide health education specialists a better understanding of public opinion and online discussion may be a potentially ideal way to…

Continuous sedation until death: moral justifications of physicians and nurses-a content analysis of opinion pieces

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rys, S.; Mortier, F.; Deliens, L.; Deschepper, R.; Battin, M.P.; Bilsen, J.

2013-01-01

Continuous sedation until death (CSD), the act of reducing or removing the consciousness of an incurably ill patient until death, often provokes medical-ethical discussions in the opinion sections of medical and nursing journals. A content analysis of opinion pieces in medical and nursing literature

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

Accelerator shielding experts meet at CERN

CERN Multimedia

CERN Bulletin

2010-01-01

Fifteen years after its first CERN edition, the Shielding Aspects of Accelerator, Targets and Irradiation Facility (SATIF) conference was held again here from 2-4 June. Now at its 10th edition, SATIF10 brought together experts from all over the world to discuss issues related to the shielding techniques. They set out the scene for an improved collaboration and discussed novel shielding solutions.   This was the most attended meeting of the series with more than 65 participants from 34 institutions and 14 countries. “We welcomed experts from many different laboratories around the world. We come from different contexts but we face similar problems. In this year’s session, among other things, we discussed ways for improving the effectiveness of calculations versus real data, as well as experimental solutions to investigate the damage that radiation produces on various materials and the electronics”, says Marco Silari, Chair of the conference and member of the DGS/RP gro...

TOOL: The Open Opinion Layer

OpenAIRE

Masum, Hassan

2002-01-01

Shared opinions drive society: what we read, how we vote, and where we shop are all heavily influenced by the choices of others. However, the cost in time and money to systematically share opinions remains high, while the actual performance history of opinion generators is often not tracked. This article explores the development of a distributed open opinion layer, which is given the generic name of TOOL. Similar to the evolution of network protocols as an underlying layer for many comput...

'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzog-Evans, Martine

2016-01-01

Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IRSN 2011 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on nuclear and radiological risks. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (the main concerns in the present society and with respect to the environment, how science is considered). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (who should control a hazardous installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist bodies). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 33 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence in authorities, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of 33 situations and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear issue (nuclear risk, ability and credibility of nuclear actors, the Chernobyl accident, radioactive wastes, demand of information on the nuclear risk).

Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Korber, Katharina; Becker, Christian

2017-10-02

Determining what constitutes "good practice" in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic) evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents' thought that determinants of a program's success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators' unfamiliarity with a program's contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive approach of evaluation targeting measures in children and adolescents.

Lymphedema and employability - Review and results of a survey of Austrian experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Neubauer, Markus; Schoberwalter, Dieter; Cenik, Fadime; Keilani, Mohammad; Crevenna, Richard

2017-03-01

Literature about lymphedema and its influence on the ability to work and employability is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the opinion of Austrian experts on factors influencing the ability to work and employability in patients suffering from lymphedema. A self-administered questionnaire consisting of 6 questions was sent to 12 Austrian lymphedema experts with 6 different specializations from May to August 2016. These experts were asked about suitable and unsuitable professions, the possible influence of lymphedema on the ability to work and employability as well as about existing and additional measures to improve the return to work. The reply rate was 100% (12 out of 12). All experts agreed that lymphedema can restrict the ability to work and employability. The leading reason for limited ability to work and employability was restricted mobility or function of the affected limb along with time-consuming therapeutic modalities, pain and psychological stress. The most suitable job named was teacher and the most unsuitable job named was cook. As easements for return to work, early rehabilitation, self-management, coping strategies, patient education, employer's goodwill and employer's cooperation were reported. Furthermore, experts stressed the need for an adjustment of the legal framework as well as low-barrier and more therapy offers. Adjusted work demands seem to be of greater importance to support the ability to work and employability than recommendations for specific job profiles alone. Experts suggest an adjustment of the legal framework for affected patients, claiming a right for early rehabilitation as well as for life-long therapy. Even though some clinically useful conclusions may be drawn from this article, further research in the field is warranted.

Analysis of opinions issued in comment letters on the term prudence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor Ranieri Bomfim Sampaio de Araújo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Since 2001, the International Accounting Standards Board (Iasb has worked to revise the Conceptual Framework (CF. Therefore, it has issued Discussion papers (DP, aiming to collect the stakeholders’ opinions about different aspects of the CF. One of the aspects discussed is the inclusion or not of Prudence in the CF. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the opinions issued in the comment letters in response to the DPs between 2006 and 2013 about the exclusion of the term Prudence from the CF. The research was undertaken through the content analysis of 420 comment letters forwarded to the Iasb, among which 176 were identified that contain the terms Prudence/Conservatism, 117 of which are in favor of including the term. Among those against the inclusion, the main justification is the existence of conflict between Prudence and neutrality. The respondents’ opinions were also separated per location and interest groups, showing that the European respondents are more favorable to the inclusion of the term, while Anglo-Saxon America defends it least. What the interest groups is concerned, the group that was most in favor of the insertion of the term were the Preparers, while the Financial Institutions were the most unfavorable agents. Using Kappa Analysis, it was observed that the level of agreement among the respondents’ opinions indicates weak agreement with the total number of samples, suggesting that further debate and reflection on the theme is needed.

A method for using expert judgement in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

1997-03-01

The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

Substitution of Assisted Living Services by Assistive Technology - Experts Opinions and Technical Feasibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartze, Jonas; Prekazi, Arianit; Schrom, Harald; Marschollek, Michael

2017-01-01

Ambient assisted living (AAL) may support ageing in place but is primarily driven by technology. The aim of this work is, to identifying reasons to move into assisted living institutions, their range of service and possible substitutability. We did semi-structured interviews with five experts from assisted living institutions and used results to design and implement assistive technologies in an AAL environment using BASIS, a cross domain bus system for smart buildings. Reasons for moving to assisted living institutions are expected benefits for chronic health problems, safety, social isolation and carefree living. We implemented six application systems for inactivity monitoring, stove shutdown, air quality monitoring, medication and appointment reminders, detection of unwanted situations before leaving and optical ringing of the doorbell. Substitution of selected assisted living services is feasible and has potential to delay necessity to move into assisted living institution if complement social services are installed.

Opinion competition dynamics on multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, R.; Kouvaris, N. E.; San Miguel, M.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

2017-12-01

Multilayer and multiplex networks represent a good proxy for the description of social phenomena where social structure is important and can have different origins. Here, we propose a model of opinion competition where individuals are organized according to two different structures in two layers. Agents exchange opinions according to the Abrams-Strogatz model in each layer separately and opinions can be copied across layers by the same individual. In each layer a different opinion is dominant, so each layer has a different absorbing state. Consensus in one opinion is not the only possible stable solution because of the interaction between the two layers. A new mean field solution has been found where both opinions coexist. In a finite system there is a long transient time for the dynamical coexistence of both opinions. However, the system ends in a consensus state due to finite size effects. We analyze sparse topologies in the two layers and the existence of positive correlations between them, which enables the coexistence of inter-layer groups of agents sharing the same opinion.

Competing opinion diffusion on social networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Haibo

2017-11-01

Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people's opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world.

Roundtable discussion on the Third Global Symposium on Health Systems Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lazarus, Jeffrey V; Balabanova, Dina; Safreed-Harmon, Kelly

2015-01-01

Health systems experts from around the world discuss why they were meeting at the Third Global Symposium on Health Systems Research while people were dying of Ebola in West Africa.......Health systems experts from around the world discuss why they were meeting at the Third Global Symposium on Health Systems Research while people were dying of Ebola in West Africa....

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

2018-02-01

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

Science.gov (United States)

André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

2008-02-01

In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2013-04-01

Social dynamic opinion models have been widely studied to understand how interactions among individuals cause opinions to evolve. Most opinion models that utilize spin interaction models usually produce a consensus steady state in which only one opinion exists. Because in reality different opinions usually coexist, we focus on non-consensus opinion models in which above a certain threshold two opinions coexist in a stable relationship. We revisit and extend the non-consensus opinion (NCO) model introduced by Shao et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 103:01870, 2009). The NCO model in random networks displays a second order phase transition that belongs to regular mean field percolation and is characterized by the appearance (above a certain threshold) of a large spanning cluster of the minority opinion. We generalize the NCO model by adding a weight factor W to each individual's original opinion when determining their future opinion (NCO W model). We find that as W increases the minority opinion holders tend to form stable clusters with a smaller initial minority fraction than in the NCO model. We also revisit another non-consensus opinion model based on the NCO model, the inflexible contrarian opinion (ICO) model (Li et al. in Phys. Rev. E 84:066101, 2011), which introduces inflexible contrarians to model the competition between two opinions in a steady state. Inflexible contrarians are individuals that never change their original opinion but may influence the opinions of others. To place the inflexible contrarians in the ICO model we use two different strategies, random placement and one in which high-degree nodes are targeted. The inflexible contrarians effectively decrease the size of the largest rival-opinion cluster in both strategies, but the effect is more pronounced under the targeted method. All of the above models have previously been explored in terms of a single network, but human communities are usually interconnected, not isolated. Because opinions propagate not

Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Beheshti

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

Epidemiological studies on glyphosate - No new findings for the European risk assessment

OpenAIRE

German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment

2016-01-01

The assessment of epidemiological studies on the health effects of glyphosate is currently being discussed in the media. In this context, BfR evaluated a so-called expert opinion on epidemiological studies prepared by non-government organisations and concludes that no new findings are being reported for the joint European assessment of the active substance glyphosate. The accusations brought forth in the so-called expert opinion of scientific deception by the assessment authorities are c...

Fashion clothing involvement, opinion leadership and opinion seeking amongst black generation Y students / Pulaki Joseph Tshabalala

OpenAIRE

Tshabalala, Pulaki Joseph

2014-01-01

Opinion leadership and opinion seeking are central constructs in academic studies of new product innovations. Fashion opinion leaders as those individuals who accelerate the fashion maturity process by legitimising a fashionable trend and influence other consumers to adopt the new innovative style as a replacement for the current accepted one. Consumers who accept information and adopt new style innovations are called opinion seekers and are important to the diffusion of new fashions because ...

Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

2011-01-01

Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

Research Ideas for the Journal of Health & Medical Economics: Opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2015-01-01

textabstractThe purpose of this Opinion article is to discuss some ideas that might lead to papers that are suitable for publication in the Journal of Health and Medical Economics. The suggestions include the affordability and sustainability of universal health care insurance, monitoring and

"I would like to discuss it further with an expert": a focus group study of Finnish adults' perspectives on genetic secondary findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Vornanen, M; Aktan-Collan, K; Hallowell, N; Konttinen, H; Kääriäinen, H; Haukkala, A

2018-01-16

Lowered costs of genomic sequencing facilitate analyzing large segments of genetic data. Ethical debate has focused on whether and what kind of incidental or secondary findings (SFs) to report, and how to obtain valid informed consent. However, people's support needs after receiving SFs have received less attention. We explored Finnish adults' perspectives on reporting genetic SFs. In this qualitative study which included four focus group discussions (N = 23) we used four vignette letters, each reporting a genetic SF predisposing to a different disease: familial hypercholesterolemia, long QT syndrome, Lynch syndrome, and Li-Fraumeni syndrome. Transcribed focus group discussions were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Major themes were immediate shock, dealing with worry and heightened risk, fear of being left alone to deal with SFs, disclosing to family, and identified support needs. Despite their willingness to receive SFs, participants were concerned about being left alone to deal with them. Empathetic expert support and timely access to preventive care were seen as essential to coping with shock and worry, and disclosing SFs to family. Discussion around SFs needs to concern not only which findings to report, but also how healthcare systems need to prepare for providing timely access to preventive care and support for individuals and families.

Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

1990-05-01

This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

CIGEO public debate. Presentation of the Citizens' Conference - Press file. Presentation of the citizens panel opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermitte, Marie-Angele; Bedu, Clemence; Besnus, Francois; Brom, Jean-Marie; Grambow, Bernd; Ruedinger, Andreas; Fourniau, Jean-Michel; Bobbio, Luigi; Blatrix, Cecile

2013-01-01

After a presentation of the organisation and implementation of the Citizens' Conference, a presentation of the members of the steering committee and of the assessment committee of this conference, this document presents the opinion of the citizen panel in the framework of the public debate on the Cigeo project of deep underground disposal of radioactive wastes. This opinion notably outlines the waste issue as an inter-generational issue, comments the calendar and condition of the Cigeo project, states the panel opinion on risks which are specific to the Cigeo project, discusses the issue of recoverability and reversibility, discusses the issue of site memory, evokes the possibility of exploitation of geothermal energy, outlines the importance of health and environmental monitoring, comments opportunities for local development, and discusses cost and financing assessments. An appendix presents the different training programmes proposed during the citizens' conference

Strategies for the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents : Expert opinions from a Delphi study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vogel, I.; Brug, J.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Raat, H.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE. To identify parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents and potentially effective prevention strategies and interventions. METHODS. Thirty experts in fields such as scientific research, medical practice, community health professions, education, youth

CSNI technical opinion papers no.5. Managing and regulating organisational change in nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Nuclear licensees are increasingly required to adapt to a more challenging commercial environment as electricity markets are liberalized. One of the costs that is often perceived as being amenable to control is staffing, and hence there is significant exploration of new strategies for managing this cost - for example, by reducing staffing levels, changing organisational structures, adopting new shift strategies, introducing new technology or increasing the proportion of work carried out by external contractors. However, if changes to staffing levels or organisational structures and systems are inadequately conceived or executed they have the potential to affect the way in which safety is managed. In this context, the NEA Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) and its Special Expert Group on Human and Organisational Factors (SEGHOF) organised an international workshop to discuss the management and regulation of organisational change in 2001. This technical opinion paper distills the findings of that workshop and sets out the factors that regulatory bodies might reasonably expect to be addressed within licensees arrangements to manage organisational change. The paper should be of particular interest to both regulators and managers of nuclear utilities. (author)

Registration of qualified radiation protection experts in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abrahamse, J.C.; Kops, J.A.M.M.; Vermeulen, A.M.T.I.; Zuur, C.

2002-01-01

In Euratom Directive 96/29 (1) the Euratom Basic Safety Standards are given. The member states of the EC have to implement this directive in their national legislation. In the Netherlands this is done in the new radiation protection legislation (Radiation Protection Decree 2002 (2)), which came into force in the first half of 2002. In this new regulation is stated that radiological activities must be done by or under supervision of a qualified radiation protection expert. With respect to the qualified expert is stated that: the qualified expert must be registered in a notified registration system; rules will be formulated with respect to the demanded qualification levels of the experts. These demands can be different for different tasks rules will be formulated for the notification of the register, the way to become registered, the costs and so on. Mid 2001 a project is started to prepare the registration system. Information was gained from and discussions took place with the important parties on the radiological playing field in the Netherlands (employers, organisations of experts and education institutes). Furthermore information is obtained from certification institutes. It was decided to accept as starting point the education levels obtained from the radiation protection education institutes, which are approved at the moment. At a later phase will be evaluated whether this system needs to be changed. In section 2 of this paper the radiation protection system in the Netherlands will be discussed in more detail. Section 2 deals with the target group and in section 3 the outlines of the registration system to be developed are discussed

Scientific Opinion on the re-evaluation of carnauba wax (E 903) as a food additive

OpenAIRE

EFSA Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS)

2012-01-01

The Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) delivers a scientific opinion re-evaluating the safety of carnauba wax (E 903). Carnauba wax (E 903) is authorised in the EU as food additive as glazing agent. It has been evaluated by the Scientific Committee on Food (SCF) and by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) who allocated an Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 7 mg/kg bw/day. The SCF did not establish an ADI but considered the use of ca...

Are You Ready To Discuss IT Outsourcing on Your Campus?

Science.gov (United States)

McCord, Alan

2002-01-01

Explores why the idea of outsourcing campus information technology (IT) services rouses opinions and passions best handled by informed dialogue. Discusses how to conduct this dialog, including common myths about outsourcing and useful lessons. (EV)

Expert system support and juridical quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groothuis, Marga M.; Svensson, Jorgen S.; Breuker, J.; Leenes, R.E.; Winkels, R.

2000-01-01

This article discusses the use of expert systems as a means of achieving juridical quality within administrative organisations. Do these systems really improve the quality of decision making and provide the desired guarantees with respect to the correct treatment of clients?

Adaptation and Validation of the Brief Sexual Opinion Survey (SOS) in a Colombian Sample and Factorial Equivalence with the Spanish Version

Science.gov (United States)

Sierra, Juan Carlos; Soler, Franklin

2016-01-01

Attitudes toward sexuality are a key variable for sexual health. It is really important for psychology and education to have adapted and validated questionnaires to evaluate these attitudes. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adapt, validate and calculate the equivalence of the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey as compared to the same survey from Spain. To this end, a total of eight experts were consulted and 1,167 subjects from Colombia and Spain answered the Sexual Opinion Survey, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Massachusetts General Hospital-Sexual Functioning Questionnaire, and the Sexuality Scale. The evaluation was conducted by online and the results show adequate qualitative and quantitative properties of the items, with adequate reliability and external validity and compliance with the strong invariance between the two countries. Consequently, the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey is a valid and reliable scale and its scores can be compared with the ones from the Spain survey, with minimum bias. PMID:27627114

19 CFR 181.95 - Oral discussion of issues.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... the advance ruling request is filed. Such a discussion will only be scheduled when, in the opinion of the Customs personnel by whom the advance ruling request is under consideration, a conference will be... be so bound in writing. The conference will not conclude with the issuance of an advance ruling...

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Value systems and opinions on the disposal of radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seidl, R.; Moser, C.; Kruetli, P.; Stauffacher, M.

2011-06-01

This report by the Institute for Environmental Decisions at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, takes a look at factors concerning acceptance, values, chances and risks involved in the realisation of depositories for nuclear wastes in Switzerland. The aims of a study made on the subject are discussed. The study was organised in five steps: The first step involved a literature study covering value systems, value-connected concepts for geological deep repositories and their evaluation. In the second step, a screening in connection with the values involved and their influence on the formation of opinion is examined. The random sampling of public opinion involved in this step is described and discussed. A third step involved the evaluation of interviews made on the subject of radioactive waste disposal. The fourth step was to correlate the results and make conclusions on the methodology being used in connection with the disposal of radioactive wastes. Three appendices to the report present further details on the work done

78 FR 53138 - South Carolina Public Service Authority; Notice of Meeting to Discuss Santee-Cooper Biological...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-28

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Project No. 199-205] South Carolina Public Service Authority; Notice of Meeting to Discuss Santee-Cooper Biological Opinion On July 15, 2010, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) filed its Biological Opinion (BO) on the relicensing of...

Board composition and firm reputation: The role of business experts, support specialists and community influentials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma García-Meca

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of board resource diversity on firm reputation. We classify board members as business experts, support specialists, political directors and other community influentials, in an effort to address whether business, technical expertise or political ties in the boardroom affect stakeholders’ opinion and, therefore, firm reputation.This study confirms that not all outside directors are equally effective in improving firm reputation, and that certain kinds of outside directors, especially business experts, help increase it. However, the findings note an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship with these directors, which means that the effect of business experts on reputation is positive up to a point, after which the relationship becomes negative. The findings also evidence that, contrary to popular beliefs, directors with previous experience as politicians are not negatively viewed by stakeholders. Moreover, this type of community influential directors has positive effects on firm reputation in regulated firms as well as in those of the public work sector. JEL classification: G30, Keywords: Reputation, Board, Expertise, Corporate governance, Directors

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

2017-06-01

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Public opinion about energy: a literature review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farhar, B.C.; Weis, P.; Unseld, C.T.; Burns, B.A.

1979-06-01

A review and analysis of 115 surveys of the general population between 1973 and 1978 (before the Three Mile Island accident, sudden gasoline price increases, and spot gasoline shortages) are presented. The survey data are organized and analyzed according to a set of categories described in Chapter 2. The public's definition of the energy situation is the focus of Chapter 3. Chapter 4 describes public opinion concerning energy conservation pertaining to transportation and domestic energy use -- whether it is efficacious, how knowledgeable people are about conservation, whether they favor it, and whether they engage in it. Findings on the solar energy alternative are described in Chapter 5. Public opinion concerning more conventional sources of energy -- oil and natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy -- are discussed in Chapter 6. In Chapter 7, a summary of analytical findings by 10 major sociodemographic characteristics is presented. Chapter 8 describes analytical findings using various social-psychological variables. A summary is presented in Chapter 9.

Does Feedback Influence Student Postings to Online Discussions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrina A. Meyer, Ph.D.

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Feedback theory proposes that feedback influences the behavior of a system and its parts and that is governed by rules. This exploratory study attempts to test this theory in a graduate-level class on leadership theory. Twelve students were asked to participate in five online discussions, each lasting one week. The questions for each discussion were selected to be provocative and rich, without having any correct answer. At the end of the discussion, students were asked to indicate which posting and poster they felt was “best” or most valuable and why they felt the posting was “best.” There is mixed evidence that the voting influenced subsequent postings; some individuals did improve while others were consistently good or poor posters. Students selected postings that were (in declining frequency of occurrence: thoughtful or thought-provoking, well written or justified, uplifting, presented new information, same as their own opinions, changed me, or complex. These reasons are similar to those of the instructor, although the students’ difficulty in choosing and rationalizing a choice and the frequency at which students chose posts that captured their own thoughts and opinions are of some concern. This study provides some evidence that these graduate students could evaluate their own discussions without the instructor intruding or dictating an evaluation scheme, although this may not be true for other groups of online students.

REACTOR: an expert system for diagnosis and treatment of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

1982-01-01

REACTOR is an expert system under development at EG and G Idaho, Inc., that will assist operators in the diagnosis and treatment of nuclear reactor accidents. This paper covers the background of the nuclear industry and why expert system technology may prove valuable in the reactor control room. Some of the basic features of the REACTOR system are discussed, and future plans for validation and evaluation of REACTOR are presented. The concept of using both event-oriented and function-oriented strategies for accident diagnosis is discussed. The response tree concept for representing expert knowledge is also introduced

Expert systems for assisting the analysis of hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evrard, J.M.; Martinez, J.M.; Souchet, Y.

1990-01-01

The advantage of applying expert systems in the analysis of safety in the operation of nuclear power plants is discussed. Expert systems apply a method based on a common representation of nuclear power plants. The main steps of the method are summarized. The applications given concern in the following fields: the analysis of hazards in the electric power supplies of a gas-graphite power plant; the evaluation of the availability of safety procedures in a PWR power plant; the search for the sources of leakage in a PWR power plant. The analysis shows that expert systems are a powerful tool in the study of safety of nuclear power plants [fr

Seeking a second medical opinion: composition, reasons and perceived outcomes in Israel.

Science.gov (United States)

Shmueli, Liora; Davidovitch, Nadav; Pliskin, Joseph S; Balicer, Ran D; Hekselman, Igal; Greenfield, Geva

2017-12-08

Seeking a second-opinion (SO) is a common clinical practice that can optimize treatment and reduce unnecessary procedures and risks. We aim to characterize the composition of the population of SO seekers, their reasons for seeking a SO and choosing a specific physician, and their perceived outcomes following the SO. A cross-sectional national telephone survey, using a representative sample of the general Israeli population (n = 848, response rate = 62%). SO utilization was defined as seeking an additional clinical opinion from a specialist within the same specialty, for the same medical concern. We describe the characteristics of respondents who obtained SOs, their reasons for doing so and their perceived outcomes: (1) Satisfaction with the SO; (2) Experiencing health improvement after receiving a SO; (3) A difference in the diagnosis or treatment suggested in the first opinions and the second opinions; (4) Preference of the SO over the first one. Most of the respondents who sought a SO (n = 344) were above 60 years old, secular, living with a partner, perceived their income to be above average and their health status to be not so good. For the patients who utilized SOs, orthopedic surgeons were sought out more than any other medical professional.Reasons for seeking a SO included doubts about diagnosis or treatment (38%), search for a sub-specialty expert (19%) and dissatisfaction with communication (19%). SO seekers most frequently chose a specific specialist based on a recommendation from a friend or a relative (33%). About half of the SO seekers also searched for information on the internet. Most of the respondents who sought a SO mentioned that they were satisfied with it (84%), felt health improvement (77%), mentioned that there was a difference between the diagnosis or treatment between the first opinion and the SO (56%) and preferred the SO over the first one (91%). Clinical uncertainty or dissatisfaction with patient-physician communication

Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armen E Allahverdyan

Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

Issue-Relevant Values and Opinions About Gay Rights: Beyond Equality and Morality.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodebeck, Laurie

2018-01-01

Although many studies have examined the role of values in shaping public opinion, the number of values that inform this research is limited. This article employs the concept of issue-relevant values as a means to explore the broader range of values associated with policy issues. After discussing the concept in general terms, the article explores issue-relevant values pertinent to public opinion about gay rights. Using the policy examples of employment nondiscrimination and same-sex couple adoption, the present study identifies, measures, and assesses several values that add to the very short list previously used to explain public opinion about gay rights issues. Content from interest-group Web sites and news media coverage of the two issues aided in identifying the values. Data from an original Internet survey yield valid measures of the values. Multivariate analyses indicate that the values behave in predictable ways: they are strongly influenced by partisanship, and they strongly affect opinions about the two issues. The performance of the values is consistent with findings from previous research on the partisan basis of values and the value-based nature of opinions. The article concludes with suggestions for further empirical and theoretical work that could apply and extend the concept of issue-relevant values.

Patients' reflections on communication in the second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Roberta E; Sullivan, Amy; Back, Anthony L; Alexander, Stewart C; Matsuyama, Robin K; Lee, Stephanie J

2009-07-01

The nature of communication between patients and their second-opinion hematology consultants may be very different in these one-time consultations than for those that are within long-term relationships. This study explored patients' perceptions of their second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation to investigate physician-patient communication in malignant disease at a critical juncture in cancer patients' care and decision-making. In-depth telephone interviews with a subset of 20 patients from a larger study, following their subspecialty hematology consultations. Most patients wanted to contribute to the consultation agenda, but were unable to do so. Patients sought expert and honest advice delivered with empathy, though most did not expect the consultant to directly address their emotions. They wanted the physician to apply his/her knowledge to the specifics of their individual cases, and were disappointed and distrustful when physicians cited only general prognostic statistics. In contrast, physicians' consideration of the unique elements of patients' cases, and demonstrations of empathy and respect made patients' feel positively about the encounter, regardless of the prognosis. Patients provided concrete recommendations for physician and patient behaviors to enhance the consultation. Consideration of these recommendations may result in more effective communication and increased patient satisfaction with medical visits.

Expert Team Decision-Making and Problem Solving: Development and Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simona Tancig

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Traditional research of decision-making has not significantly contributed towards better understanding of professional judgment and decisions in practice. Researchers dealing with decision-making in various professions and natural settings initiated new perspectives called naturalistic, which put the expert in the focus of research and the expertise thus entered the core of decision-making research in natural situations.Expert team is more than a group of experts. It is defined as a group of interdependent team members with a high level of task related expertise and the mastering of team processes.There have been several advances in understanding of expertise and the team. By combining theories, models, and empirical evidence we are trying to explain effectiveness and adaptation of expert teams in problem-solving and decision-making in complex and dynamic situations.A considerable research has been devoted to finding out what are the characteristics of experts and expert teams during their optimal functioning. These characteristics are discussed as input, process and output factors. As input variables the cognitive, social-affective, and motivational characteristics are presented. Process variables encompass individual and team learning, problem solving and decision-making as presented in Kolb’s cycle of learning, in deeper structures of dialogue and discussion, and in phenomena of collaboration, alignment, and distributed cognition. Outcome variables deal with task performance – activities.

OpinionSeer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yingcai; Wei, Furu; Liu, Shixia; Au, Norman; Cui, Weiwei; Zhou, Hong; Qu, Huamin

2010-01-01

The rapid development of Web technology has resulted in an increasing number of hotel customers sharing their opinions on the hotel services. Effective visual analysis of online customer opinions is needed, as it has a significant impact on building a successful business. In this paper, we present OpinionSeer, an interactive visualization system that could visually analyze a large collection of online hotel customer reviews. The system is built on a new visualization-centric opinion mining technique that considers uncertainty for faithfully modeling and analyzing customer opinions. A new visual representation is developed to convey customer opinions by augmenting well-established scatterplots and radial visualization. To provide multiple-level exploration, we introduce subjective logic to handle and organize subjective opinions with degrees of uncertainty. Several case studies illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of OpinionSeer on analyzing relationships among multiple data dimensions and comparing opinions of different groups. Aside from data on hotel customer feedback, OpinionSeer could also be applied to visually analyze customer opinions on other products or services.

Expert systems - basic principles and possible applications in nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cain, D.G.; Schmidt, F.

1987-01-01

One of the primary goals of the application of mathematical methods and computational techniques in reactor physics is the effective and accurate solution of the neutron diffusion equation under various conditions. To reach this goal still requires much skill, experience, knowledge and imagination as can be seen from various contributions at this and other conferences. Experts are necessary. Will expert systems replace them. We shall discuss this question by describing the basic principles of problem solving by expert systems as compared to problem solving by mathematical and computational methods. From this we shall identify areas of possible applications of the new techniques in nuclear energy and develop some thoughts on present limitations. As a result we conclude that expert systems will not be able to replace experts as long as the experts use the systems to improve their own expertise

Breaking The Traditional Communication Flow: Exploration of Social Media Opinion Leaders in Health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Emma

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Opinion leaders play an important role in mitigating health issues and are able to influence attitudes and health behaviors to a certain extent. However, in the world we are living today, individual health decision making no longer rely fully on doctor’s advice, but often persuaded by people or organisations deemed reliable and trustworthy. Interestingly, one does not have to have a medical degree to be seen as “reliable” or “trustworthy” in giving out medical advices. Computer-mediated-communication changes the way opinion leaders emerge in virtual communities, specifically in the context of health. Through increased access to both traditional and online media, people have a fair access to communication technology and therefore, our definition of opinion leaders have shifted from how we used to understand it through Lazarsfeld’s two-steps flow theory. In fact, the way opinion leaders operate via social media platform is very different from how it used to be through the traditional mass media. This paper will discuss on the characteristics of new media opinion leaders, particularly in the context of health, in hopes to learn new ways to promote health in future communication campaigns.

What do experts stakeholders think about chemical risks and uncertainties. An Internet survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Assmuth, T.; Lyytimaeki, J.; Hilden, M.; Lindholm, M.; Munier, B.

2007-07-01

This report presents results from a web-based explorative survey on integrated risk assessment. The survey was conducted in the EU-funded project NoMiracle (Novel Methods for Risk Assessment of Cumulative Stressors in Europe) which develops methods for assessing cumulative risks from combined exposures to multiple stressors. The objectives of the survey were to give a general picture of perceptions and views among experts and stakeholders concerning risks, risk assessment and risk management. The survey focused on chemicals with an emphasis on information related to complex risks and uncertainties in a management context. The methodology of the survey combined traditional multiple choice questions and a novel approach that charted the importance of different types of information in two-dimensional graphs describing simultaneously use in regulatory procedures and public discussion. Another part was linked to new methods of presenting risks and explored the ranking of separate and cumulative risks in map grids. The survey was e-mailed to 952 recipients representing researchers, national and EU level administrators, enterprises, NGOs and international organizations, and most EU member states and some other countries. The response rate (26 %) can be considered acceptable but limits the possibilities to make quantitative claims concerning the views held by different groups although it gives an overview of the types of views one encounter among experts. A key finding was the pronounced variability of concepts and views regarding risks and uncertainties, and regarding information and knowledge about these. Opinions on risks and risk assessment, particularly on integrated risk assessment, on related principles, and on the role of experts are genuinely variable. They cannot be reduced to any simple model, and cannot (and need not) be dispelled in a forced manner. The observations should be taken into account in the development and application of novel methods for risk

Environmental problems: the expert opinions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The environmental problems constitute one of the questions the most complicated which sets up to modern societies. Indeed, their reasons are multiple and their consequences are not always known with certainty. Several scientific contributions are given in this book on the following fields: the stratospheric ozone, the oceans pollution, the industrial and municipal wastes, the urbanization, the transports, the civil nuclear, the greenhouse effect, the air pollution, the water pollution and the main industrial accidents. Only the five last points are detailed later on. (O.L.). refs., tabs

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Adaptability of expert visual anticipation in baseball batting.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Sean; Fadde, Peter J; Harbaugh, Allen G

2017-09-01

By manipulating stimulus variation in terms of opponent pitcher actions, this study investigated the capability of expert (n = 30) and near-expert (n = 95) professional baseball batters to adapt anticipation skill when using the video simulation temporal occlusion paradigm. Participants watched in-game footage of two pitchers, one after the other, that was temporally occluded at ball release and various points during ball flight. They were required to make a written prediction of pitch types and locations. Per cent accuracy was calculated for pitch type, for pitch location, and for type and location combined. Results indicated that experts and near-experts could adapt their anticipation to predict above guessing level across both pitchers, but adaptation to the left-handed pitcher was poorer than the right-handed pitcher. Small-to-moderate effect sizes were found in terms of superior adaptation by experts over near-experts at the ball release and early ball flight occlusion conditions. The findings of this study extend theoretical and applied knowledge of expertise in striking sports. Practical application of the instruments and findings are discussed in terms of applied researchers, practitioners and high-performance staff in professional sporting organisations.

Introduction of direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription drugs in Canada: an opinion survey on regulatory policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Mintzes, Barbara; Barer, Morris; Lexchin, Joel; Bassett, Ken L

2005-06-01

Canada is strongly influenced by US cross-border direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) and has held consultations to discuss introduction of DTCA since 1996. This article describes a survey of Canadian drug policy experts carried out in 2001, during one such legislative review. The survey results are compared to more recent DTCA policy developments. We recruited key informants on pharmaceutical policy to complete a faxed questionnaire that queried their opinions on DTCA information quality, effects on drug and health care use, and regulatory issues. Respondents were asked about the evidence they had used to back their opinions. Analysis was descriptive. Of 79 identified potential participants, 60 (76%) participated, 40% of whom were from federal and provincial government; 3% were private insurers; 18%, 15%, and 8% were from health professional groups, consumer groups, and patient groups, respectively; 8% and 7% were from pharmaceutical and advertising industries, respectively. Opinions were highly polarized on the effects of DTCA on drug and health care use. Advertising and pharmaceutical industry respondents were generally positive, public sector, health professional and consumer groups generally negative. Over 80% believed DTCA leads to higher private and public drug costs and more frequent physician visits. Fewer judged billboards or television to be appropriate media for DTCA than magazines or the Internet, and most believed that children and adolescents should not be targeted. Given the polarization observed within this survey, we examined how DTCA policy has evolved in Canada since 2001. The federal government has legislative authority over DTCA, but bears few of the additional costs potentially incurred through policy change. These fall to the provinces, which provide an eroding patchwork of public coverage for prescription drugs in the face of rapidly increasing costs. No new federal legislation has been tabled since 2001. However, considerable shifts in

Telecontrol - Expert systems. Real-time monitoring and remote diagnostic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lam, A.

1996-09-01

The role of expert systems in programming simple and complex tasks in utilities companies was discussed with examples from B.C. Hydro, where expert systems have been used in such diverse applications as an in-house programmable logic controller (PLC) training course, and a machine audit on a 150 MW steam turbine generating unit at their Burrard Thermal Generating Plant. The PLC tutoring program uses expert system technology for the air blast circuit breakers` air drier system, for individualized on-site training. The steam turbine audits (an eight-month long project) were performed remotely by dialing an on-site computer configured with customized expert software. Details of these, and other potential applications, such as transformer monitoring and diagnostics, circuit breaker performance analysis, and information management, were described.

Distributed expert systems for nuclear reactor control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otaduy, P.J.

1992-01-01

A network of distributed expert systems is the heart of a prototype supervisory control architecture developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for an advanced multimodular reactor. Eight expert systems encode knowledge on signal acquisition, diagnostics, safeguards, and control strategies in a hybrid rule-based, multiprocessing and object-oriented distributed computing environment. An interactive simulation of a power block consisting of three reactors and one turbine provides a realistic, testbed for performance analysis of the integrated control system in real-time. Implementation details and representative reactor transients are discussed

Attitudes of Agricultural Experts Toward Genetically Modified Crops: A Case Study in Southwest Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghanian, Mansour; Ghoochani, Omid M; Kitterlin, Miranda; Jahangiry, Sheida; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Van Passel, Steven; Azadi, Hossein

2016-04-01

The production of genetically modified (GM) crops is growing around the world, and with it possible opportunities to combat food insecurity and hunger, as well as solutions to current problems facing conventional agriculture. In this regard the use of GMOs in food and agricultural applications has increased greatly over the past decade. However, the development of GM crops has been a matter of considerable interest and worldwide public controversy. This, in addition to skepticism, has stifled the use of this practice on a large scale in many areas, including Iran. It stands to reason that a greater understanding of this practice could be formed after a review of the existing expert opinions surrounding GM crops. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the predictors that influence agricultural experts' attitudes toward the development of and policies related to GM crops. Using a descriptive correlational research method, questionnaire data was collected from 65 experts from the Agricultural Organization in the Gotvand district in Southwest Iran. Results indicated that agricultural experts were aware of the environmental benefits and possible risks associated with GM crops. The majority of participants agreed that GM crops could improve food security and accelerate rural development, and were proponents of labeling practices for GM crops. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the perception of benefits and attitudes towards GM crops.

Concierge and Second-Opinion Radiology: Review of Current Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaikh, Shehbaz; Bafana, Rounak; Halabi, Safwan S

2016-01-01

Radiology's core assets include the production, interpretation, and distribution of quality imaging studies. Second-opinion services and concierge practices in radiology aim to augment traditional services by providing patient-centered and physician-centered care, respectively. Patient centeredness enhances patients' understanding and comfort with their radiology tests and procedures and allows them to make better decisions about their health care. As the fee-for-service paradigm shifts to value-based care models, radiology practices have begun to diversify imaging service delivery and communication to coincide with the American College of Radiology Imaging 3.0 campaign. Physician-centered consultation allows for communication of evidence-based guidelines to assist referring physicians and other providers in making the most appropriate imaging or treatment decision for a specific clinical condition. There are disparate practice models and payment schema for the various second-opinion and concierge practices. This review article explores the current state and payment models of second-opinion and concierge practices in radiology. This review also includes a discussion on the benefits, roadblocks, and ethical issues that surround these novel types of practices. Copyright © 2015 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[German national second-opinion network for testicular cancer and penile carcinoma : Two sources for evidence-based information].

Science.gov (United States)

Schrader, M; Zengerling, F; Hakenberg, O W; Protzel, C

2016-09-01

The second-opinion network for testicular cancer is an internet-based platform addressing physicians treating testicular cancer patients. They are offered a second-opinion before determining further therapy after orchiectomy and completion of staging. The high rate of discrepancies between the first and second opinion in more than 30 % supports the assumption of a deficit in the implementation of treatment guidelines. In 2015, approximately 22 % of the newly diagnosed cases with testicular cancer in Germany were covered by this system. According to the present interim analysis, the second-opinion platform helps to avoid overtreatment of testicular cancer patients. The high acceptance of the project and the encouraging results of this interim analysis gave rise to considerations to apply the second-opinion model to penile carcinoma. Data from the UK and the Netherlands show that the second-opinion network for penile cancer could help to improve treatment standards and results in Germany. Current data and the intended further development of the system are discussed.

Opinion formation models on a gradient.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael T Gastner

Full Text Available Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales proportional g(-1/4, not proportional g(-4/7 as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation.

Opinion dynamics within a virtual small group: the stubbornness effect

Science.gov (United States)

Guazzini, Andrea; Cini, Alessandro; Bagnoli, Franco; Ramasco, José

2015-09-01

The modeling of opinion dynamics is social systems has attracted a good deal of attention in the last decade. Even though based on intuition and observation, the mechanisms behind many of these models need solid empirical grounding. In this work, we investigate the relation among subjective variables (such as the personality), the dynamics of the affinity network dynamics, the communication patterns emerging throughout the social interactions and the opinions dynamics in a series of experiments with five small groups of ten people each. In order to ignite the discussion, the polemic topic of animal experimentation was proposed. The groups essentially polarized in two factions with a set of stubborn individuals (those not changing their opinions in time) playing the role of anchors. Our results suggest that the different layers present in the group dynamics (i.e., individual level, group dynamics and meso-communication) are deeply intermingled, specifically the stubbornness effect appears to be related to the dynamical features of the network topologies, and only in an undirected way to the personality of the participants.

Opinion dynamics within a virtual small group: the stubbornness effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea eGuazzini

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The modeling of opinion dynamics is social systems has attracted a good deal of attention in the last decade. Even though based on intuition and observation, the mechanisms behind many of these models need solid empirical grounding. In this work, we investigate the relation among subjective variables (such as the personality, the dynamics of the affinity network dynamics, the communication patterns emerging throughout the social interactions and the opinions dynamics in a series of experiments with five small groups of ten people each. In order to ignite the discussion, the polemic topic of animal experimentation was proposed. The groups essentially polarized in two factions with a set of stubborn individuals (those not changing their opinions in time playing the role of anchors. Our results suggest that the different layers present in the group dynamics (i.e., individual level, group dynamics and meso-communication are deeply intermingled, specifically the stubbornness effect appears to be related to the dynamical features of the network topologies, and only in an undirected way to the personality of the participants.

Application of Delphi expert panel in joint venture projects

Science.gov (United States)

Adnan, H.; Rosman, M. R.; Rashid, Z. Z. Ahmad; Mohamad Yusuwan, N.; Bakhary, N. A.

2018-02-01

This study was conducted with the aim to identify the application of the Delphi Technique in validating findings obtained from questionnaire surveys and interviews done in- depth on the subject of joint venture projects in Malaysia. The Delphi technique aims to achieve a consensus of opinion amongst expert panellist that were selected on the primary factors in JV projects. To achieve research objectives, a progressive series of questions was designed where a selected panel of expert to confirm and validate the final findings. The rationale, benefits, limitations and recommendations for the use of Delphi were given in this study. From the literature review done, twenty-one factors were identified as critical factors to the making any joint venture project successful. Detail information from contractors were obtained by using the questionnaire survey method and forty-three in-depth interviews were carried out. Trust between partners, mutual understanding, partner selection criteria, agreement of contract, objective compatibility, conflict, and commitment were confirmed by the Delphi panel to be the critical success factors besides another fourteen factors which were found to be the Failure Reduction Criteria. Delphi techniques has proven to successfully assist in recognising the main factors and would be beneficial in supplementing the success of joint venture arrangements application for construction projects in Malaysia.

The development of an expert system to tune a beam line

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, D.E.; Brown, P.A.; British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC

1989-01-01

The experience of developing an Expert System to aid in the tuning of the Ion Source Injection beam line at TRIUMF is described. The challenging and complex task of introducing Expert System technology into an established accelerator operation is outlined. Success in this environment depends strongly on the choice of project, the choice of experts, the choice of tools, and the methods used to represent the expertise. All these choices are discussed

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wight, L.H.

1980-05-01

Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wight, L.H.

1980-05-01

Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue

The Quality of Life of High-Skilled Employees in Hungary. The Experts' Opinion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CRISTINA LEOVARIDIS

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This article aims to provide an overview of the working conditions of high-skilled employees in Hungary, by resorting to comparisons with the other Central and Eastern European countries, based on research carried out by the author during a three-month placement (August 1st-October 31st 2011 at the Institute of Sociology of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. This work combines several sources and methods for gathering information: theoretical documentation, secondary analysis of data, in-depth interviews with some experts in the field. The study results indicate the presence, for the knowledge workers in Hungary, of some common problems of this category of employees in all former communist countries, such as number of working hours per week more than EU average, low rate of participation in training, problems health such as stress, depression, heart disease etc., employees' complaints related to overworking associated with low wages in the public sector and with rigid hierarchy, lack of work-life balance, standards imposed by the parent company etc. in some multinational firms; cases of good practice appear at the micro level, mainly in Scandinavian capital firms or in companies in the IT sector.

Expert system technology to support emergency response: its prospects and limitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belardo, S.; Wallace, W.A.

1988-01-01

The capabilities for computer technologies to provide decision support in emergency response are now well recognized. The information flow prior to, during, and after potentially catastrophic events must be managed in order to have effective response. We feel strongly that computer technology can be a crucial component in this management process. We will first review a relatively new facet of computer technology - expert systems. We will then provide a conceptual framework for decision making under crisis, a situation typified by emergency response. We follow with a discussion of a prototype expert system for response to an accident at a nuclear power generation facility. Our final section discusses the potential advantages and limitations of expert system technology in emergency response. (author)

Realization of economic evaluation expert system for uranium mine project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Haifeng

1993-01-01

By studying the EVALUATOR, economic evaluation expert system of uranium mine project, the theoretical fundamentals of expert system, principle of inference mechanism, implementation of knowledge base, realization of explanation mechanism, acquisition of domain knowledge and representation of knowledge were described, especially the subjective Bayes approach for inexact reasoning problem used in EVALUATOR was discussed in detail

Backlash or a Positive Response?: Public Opinion of LGB Issues After Obergefell v. Hodges.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazyak, Emily; Stange, Mathew

2018-01-10

Following Obergefell v. Hodges, same-sex marriage remains controversial and anti-LGBT state legislation has been passed, which raises questions about whether the Supreme Court's ruling may have created a backlash. We use data from two waves of a general population survey of Nebraskans conducted before and after the decision to answer three questions. First, we test three theories of how the court decision influenced public opinion. We find that support for same-sex marriage was significantly higher following the ruling, suggesting that there was not a backlash to it. Second, we assess whether people perceive that the court accurately reflects the public's opinion. We find that people who favor same-sex marriage are more likely to think that the ruling refects public opinion very well; those who oppose same-sex marriage are more likely to think that the ruling does not at all reflect public opinion. Third, we examine the association between discussing gay rights and support for same-sex marriage, finding that those who talk about LGB issues very often are more likely to favor same-sex marriage. We discuss the implications of these findings in relation to two of the themes of this special issue: the influence of marriage equality on Americans' understandings of marriage and the impact of marriage equality on future LGBT activism.

Opinion mining feature-level using Naive Bayes and feature extraction based analysis dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Sanda, Regi; Baizal, Z. K. Abdurahman; Nhita, Fhira

2015-12-01

Development of internet and technology, has major impact and providing new business called e-commerce. Many e-commerce sites that provide convenience in transaction, and consumers can also provide reviews or opinions on products that purchased. These opinions can be used by consumers and producers. Consumers to know the advantages and disadvantages of particular feature of the product. Procuders can analyse own strengths and weaknesses as well as it's competitors products. Many opinions need a method that the reader can know the point of whole opinion. The idea emerged from review summarization that summarizes the overall opinion based on sentiment and features contain. In this study, the domain that become the main focus is about the digital camera. This research consisted of four steps 1) giving the knowledge to the system to recognize the semantic orientation of an opinion 2) indentify the features of product 3) indentify whether the opinion gives a positive or negative 4) summarizing the result. In this research discussed the methods such as Naï;ve Bayes for sentiment classification, and feature extraction algorithm based on Dependencies Analysis, which is one of the tools in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and knowledge based dictionary which is useful for handling implicit features. The end result of research is a summary that contains a bunch of reviews from consumers on the features and sentiment. With proposed method, accuration for sentiment classification giving 81.2 % for positive test data, 80.2 % for negative test data, and accuration for feature extraction reach 90.3 %.

The contributions of the cerebellum in sensorimotor control: what are the prevailing opinions which will guide forthcoming studies?

Science.gov (United States)

Manto, Mario; Oulad Ben Taib, Nordeyn

2013-06-01

Although considerable progress has been made in developing models of cerebellar function in sensorimotor control, the exact nature of the basic operations performed by the cerebellum remain elusive. Several major theories have emerged these last decades. According to the hypothesis of Marr and Albus, the climbing fiber input carries an error signal weakening the strength of a subset of parallel fibers/Purkinje neurons synapses in the cerebellar cortex. Cerebellar circuits would gain the control of movement through trial and error. The hypothesis of internal models emulating movements is currently highly cited. There is a general agreement that (1) the central nervous system has to cope with an intrinsic time delay of sensory feedback related to motor activities and (2) estimations of future motor states are essential to perform fast and accurate movements. According to this second theory, cerebellar dysmetria, one of the cardinal cerebellar deficits, would result from a distorted predictive control. A third popular theory relates to the inverse models that would be stored in the cerebellum. Acquisition of a motor act would require forward models, and the acquisition process itself would generate an inverse model to allow an unconscious coordinated movement. Recently, an international panel of experts from various disciplines discussed the prevailing opinions in a consensus statement and tried to extract their clinical relevance in terms of pathogenesis of the clinical symptoms. Although a consensus is still not reached, the prevailing opinions provide a sound framework to conduct novel studies and try to discover the secrets of cerebellar circuits.

Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

2017-11-01

Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

Survey Methods, Traditional, Public Opinion Polling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elmelund-Præstekær, Christian; Hopmann, David Nicolas; Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

2017-01-01

Traditional public opinion polls are surveys in which a random sample of a given population is asked questions about their attitudes, knowledge, or behavior. If conducted properly, the answers from such surveys are approximately representative of the entire population. Traditional public opinion...... polling is typically based on four different methods of data gathering, or combinations hereof: face-to-face, postal surveys, phone surveys, and web surveys. Given that opinion polls are based on a sample, we cannot be sure that the sample reflects public opinion perfectly, however—even if randomness...... is perfect. Moreover, responses may be highly dependent on the contextual information provided with the question. Also, it may be difficult to capture past or complex causes of attitudes or behavior. In short, surveys are a precise way of measuring public opinion, but they do not come without challenges....

The role of the expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smeesters, P.

1998-01-01

The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)

Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

Science.gov (United States)

Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

2016-11-01

Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The learning continuum of ecology based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material

Science.gov (United States)

Pramesti, Indah Cahaya; Subali, Bambang

2017-08-01

This study aims at designing learning continuum for developing a curriculum based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material on ecological aspect targeted for students of Primary and Secondary Education. This research is a descriptive research using survey methods. The researchers conducted a census by distributing questionnaires that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements to 147 natural science teachers at junior high school and 134 Biology teachers at senior high school as a population throughout 4 regencies and 1 city in Yogyakarta Special Region.. Data analysis techniques used descriptive analysis. In conclusion, teacher's opinion is influenced by curriculum that exist today. According to the opinions of Natural Science teachers at Junior High School, most of the ecological aspects such as characteristics of biomes, characteristics of ecosystems, characteristics of communities, characteristics of populations, etc. should be taught in grade VII with the level of competence: to understand (C2), while Biology teachers at Senior High School state that the ecological aspect should be taught in class X with the level of competence: to understand (C2), apply (C3) and analyze (C4). Teachers should be a privy in the formulation of the curriculum, so they're not only accept and apply the existing curriculum but also give opinions to improve the curriculum, especially in terms of ecology.

Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

An expert system for configuring a network for a Milstar terminal

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, Melissa J.; Wilson, Elizabeth J.

1994-01-01

This paper describes a rule-based expert system which assists the user in configuring a network for Air Force terminals using the Milstar satellite system. The network configuration expert system approach uses CLIPS. The complexity of network configuration is discussed, and the methods used to model it are described.

Transfer Effects of Semantic Networks on Expert Systems: Mindtools at Work.

Science.gov (United States)

Marra, Rose M.; Jonassen, David H.

2002-01-01

Discussion of computers as mindtools focuses on semantic networks and expert systems that help learners build a representation of what they know by designing their own knowledge bases. Describes a study of undergraduates that examined the effects of building semantic networks on the construction of expert systems. (Author/LRW)

Opinion Change: Information or Partisanship?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Justesen, Mogens K.; Klemmensen, Robert; Leavitt, Thomas

Currently two paradigms seek to explain how voters change their opinion when they are confronted with new information. One school argues that voters are bayesian updaters who rationally change their opinion. Another school argues that voters are inherently biased in their evaluation of new...... information. According to this line of thought voters are more likely to accept information that con_rms their opinion compared to information that contradict their point of view. Using a quasi experiment we investigate the extent to which voters rely on bayesian updating or on motivated reasoning when...

Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

Nuclear power crises and public opinion: Russian Experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gagarinski, A.Y.

1998-01-01

This report presents the state of Russian nuclear power, which provides 13 per cent of the country's electricity production (up to 80 per cent in some large regions) and shows no recession trends, characteristic of the whole Russian economic complex. The report discusses measures taken both for improvement of the safety of operating and future new-generation NPPs, and for improvement of public confidence in them. Also considered are the problems related to both civil power and the military heritage, which are most actively discussed in mass media. This report provides the prognosis for nuclear power and public opinion for the next 10-15 years. (author)

Expert System Dan Aplikasinya Dalam Auditing: Suatu Metode Mempelajari Pertimbangan Materialitas

OpenAIRE

Suryandari, Erni

2001-01-01

Expert system is an intellegence computer system that uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve quite a difficult problem which in unstructured in its nature. This purpose of this study is to discuss the benefit of expert system as an aid in decision making by auditors in auditing financial statement, especially when auditors are making audit planner. In making audit planner, expert system helps evaluate audit risk and judgment materiality. Judgment materiality planning will effect the...

Expert System dan Aplikasinya dalam Auditing: Suatu Metode Mempelajari Pertimbangan Materialitas

OpenAIRE

Erni Suryandari

2005-01-01

Expert system is an intellegence computer system that uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve quite a difficult problem which in unstructured in its nature. This purpose of this study is to discuss the benefit of expert system as an aid in decision making by auditors in auditing financial statement, especially when auditors are making audit planner. In making audit planner, expert system helps evaluate audit risk and judgment materiality. Judgment materiality planning will effect the...

IRSN 2017 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

2017-07-01

Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, fear of a severe accident, attention given by French people to nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector

IRSN 2016 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

2016-07-01

Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector, fear of serious nuclear accidents, perception of the two main nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011)

Physicians' opinions about partner notification methods: case reporting, patient referral, and provider referral.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogben, M; St Lawrence, J S; Montaño, D E; Kasprzyk, D; Leichliter, J S; Phillips, W R

2004-02-01

The United States has relied upon partner notification strategies to help break the chain of infection and re-infection for sexually transmitted diseases (STD). Physicians are a vital link in the system of STD control, but little is known of physician opinions about partner notification strategies. We collected opinions about partner notification from a national probability sample of physicians in specialties diagnosing STDs. Physicians responded to 17 questions about three relevant forms of STD partner notification: patient based referral, provider based referral, and case reporting. Exploratory factor analyses showed that responses for each form of partner notification could be grouped into four categories: perceived practice norms, infection control, patient relationships, and time/money. Multivariate analyses of the factors showed that physicians endorsed patient based referral most favourably and provider based referral least favourably. Physicians' opinions about partner notification strategies appear to reflect objective reality in some areas, but not in others. Strategies that improve the fit between physicians' opinions and effective notification are needed: some are discussed here.

The influence of local majority opinions on the dynamics of the Sznajd model

Science.gov (United States)

Crokidakis, Nuno

2014-03-01

In this work we study a Sznajd-like opinion dynamics on a square lattice of linear size L. For this purpose, we consider that each agent has a convincing power C, that is a time-dependent quantity. Each high convincing power group of four agents sharing the same opinion may convince its neighbors to follow the group opinion, which induces an increase of the group's convincing power. In addition, we have considered that a group with a local majority opinion (3 up/1 down spins or 1 up/3 down spins) can persuade the agents neighboring the group with probability p, since the group's convincing power is high enough. The two mechanisms (convincing powers and probability p) lead to an increase of the competition among the opinions, which avoids dictatorship (full consensus, all spins parallel) for a wide range of model's parameters, and favors the occurrence of democratic states (partial order, the majority of spins pointing in one direction). We have found that the relaxation times of the model follow log-normal distributions, and that the average relaxation time τ grows with system size as τ ~ L5/2, independent of p. We also discuss the occurrence of the usual phase transition of the Sznajd model.

The influence of local majority opinions on the dynamics of the Sznajd model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crokidakis, Nuno [Departamento de Física, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

2014-03-11

In this work we study a Sznajd-like opinion dynamics on a square lattice of linear size L. For this purpose, we consider that each agent has a convincing power C, that is a time-dependent quantity. Each high convincing power group of four agents sharing the same opinion may convince its neighbors to follow the group opinion, which induces an increase of the group's convincing power. In addition, we have considered that a group with a local majority opinion (3 up/1 down spins or 1 up/3 down spins) can persuade the agents neighboring the group with probability p, since the group's convincing power is high enough. The two mechanisms (convincing powers and probability p) lead to an increase of the competition among the opinions, which avoids dictatorship (full consensus, all spins parallel) for a wide range of model's parameters, and favors the occurrence of democratic states (partial order, the majority of spins pointing in one direction). We have found that the relaxation times of the model follow log-normal distributions, and that the average relaxation time τ grows with system size as τ ∼ L{sup 5/2}, independent of p. We also discuss the occurrence of the usual phase transition of the Sznajd model.