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Sample records for discrete-time garch model

  1. GARCH and Irregularly Spaced Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meddahi, N.; Renault, E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    An exact discretization of continuous time stochastic volatility processes observed at irregularly spaced times is used to give insights on how a coherent GARCH model can be specified for such data. The relation of our approach with those in the existing literature is studied.

  2. Multivariate GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes nonparametric and semiparametric models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical example...

  3. TESTING GARCH-X TYPE MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We present novel theory for testing for reduction of GARCH-X type models with an exogenous (X) covariate to standard GARCH type models. To deal with the problems of potential nuisance parameters on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identification under the null, we exploit...... a noticeable property of specific zero-entries in the inverse information of the GARCH-X type models. Specifically, we consider sequential testing based on two likelihood ratio tests and as demonstrated the structure of the inverse information implies that the proposed test neither depends on whether...... the nuisance parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space, nor on lack of identification. Our general results on GARCH-X type models are applied to Gaussian based GARCH-X models, GARCH-X models with Student's t-distributed innovations as well as the integer-valued GARCH-X (PAR-X) models....

  4. Empirical investigation on modeling solar radiation series with ARMA–GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Yan, Dong; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Jianzhong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Apply 6 ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to model and forecast solar radiation. • The ARMA–GARCH(-M) models produce more accurate radiation forecasting than conventional methods. • Show that ARMA–GARCH-M models are more effective for forecasting solar radiation mean and volatility. • The ARMA–EGARCH-M is robust and the ARMA–sGARCH-M is very competitive. - Abstract: Simulation of radiation is one of the most important issues in solar utilization. Time series models are useful tools in the estimation and forecasting of solar radiation series and their changes. In this paper, the effectiveness of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models with various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) processes, namely ARMA–GARCH models are evaluated for their effectiveness in radiation series. Six different GARCH approaches, which contain three different ARMA–GARCH models and corresponded GARCH in mean (ARMA–GARCH-M) models, are applied in radiation data sets from two representative climate stations in China. Multiple evaluation metrics of modeling sufficiency are used for evaluating the performances of models. The results show that the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models are effective in radiation series estimation. Both in fitting and prediction of radiation series, the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models show better modeling sufficiency than traditional models, while ARMA–EGARCH-M models are robustness in two sites and the ARMA–sGARCH-M models appear very competitive. Comparisons of statistical diagnostics and model performance clearly show that the ARMA–GARCH-M models make the mean radiation equations become more sufficient. It is recommended the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to be the preferred method to use in the modeling of solar radiation series

  5. GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Chu; Stephen Chan; Saralees Nadarajah; Joerg Osterrieder

    2017-01-01

    With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

  6. GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

  7. Bayesian Non-Parametric Mixtures of GARCH(1,1 Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W. Lau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional GARCH models describe volatility levels that evolve smoothly over time, generated by a single GARCH regime. However, nonstationary time series data may exhibit abrupt changes in volatility, suggesting changes in the underlying GARCH regimes. Further, the number and times of regime changes are not always obvious. This article outlines a nonparametric mixture of GARCH models that is able to estimate the number and time of volatility regime changes by mixing over the Poisson-Kingman process. The process is a generalisation of the Dirichlet process typically used in nonparametric models for time-dependent data provides a richer clustering structure, and its application to time series data is novel. Inference is Bayesian, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the posterior distribution is described. The methodology is illustrated on the Standard and Poor's 500 financial index.

  8. Modelling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model extends the Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Ter¨asvirta (2005) by including...... another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition......, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. The model is applied to a selection of world stock indices, and it is found that time is an important factor affecting...

  9. Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.

    2016-01-01

    We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.

  10. Empirical study of the GARCH model with rational errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it to stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform Bayesian inference to the model. Bayesian inference is implemented by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive multi-dimensional Student's t-proposal density. In order to compare our model with the GARCH model with the standard normal errors, we calculate the information criteria AIC and DIC, and find that both criteria favor the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. We also calculate the accuracy of the volatility by using the realized volatility and find that a good accuracy is obtained for the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. Thus we conclude that the GARCH model with a rational error distribution is superior to the GARCH model with the normal errors and it can be used as an alternative GARCH model to those with other fat-tailed distributions

  11. A discrete-time two-factor model for pricing bonds and interest rate derivatives under random volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Heston, Steven L.; Nandi, Saikat

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a discrete-time two-factor model of interest rates with analytical solutions for bonds and many interest rate derivatives when the volatility of the short rate follows a GARCH process that can be correlated with the level of the short rate itself. Besides bond and bond futures, the model yields analytical solutions for prices of European options on discount bonds (and futures) as well as other interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, average rate options, yield curv...

  12. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smooth...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  13. A comparison of monthly precipitation point estimates at 6 locations in Iran using integration of soft computing methods and GARCH time series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

    2017-11-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in determining the climate of a region. Precise estimation of precipitation is required to manage and plan water resources, as well as other related applications such as hydrology, climatology, meteorology and agriculture. Time series of hydrologic variables such as precipitation are composed of deterministic and stochastic parts. Despite this fact, the stochastic part of the precipitation data is not usually considered in modeling of precipitation process. As an innovation, the present study introduces three new hybrid models by integrating soft computing methods including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Bayesian networks (BN) and gene expression programming (GEP) with a time series model, namely generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) for modeling of the monthly precipitation. For this purpose, the deterministic (obtained by soft computing methods) and stochastic (obtained by GARCH time series model) parts are combined with each other. To carry out this research, monthly precipitation data of Babolsar, Bandar Anzali, Gorgan, Ramsar, Tehran and Urmia stations with different climates in Iran were used during the period of 1965-2014. Root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determination coefficient (R2) were employed to evaluate the performance of conventional/single MARS, BN and GEP, as well as the proposed MARS-GARCH, BN-GARCH and GEP-GARCH hybrid models. It was found that the proposed novel models are more precise than single MARS, BN and GEP models. Overall, MARS-GARCH and BN-GARCH models yielded better accuracy than GEP-GARCH. The results of the present study confirmed the suitability of proposed methodology for precise modeling of precipitation.

  14. Conditional density estimation using fuzzy GARCH models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Bastürk, N.; Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Kruse, R.; Berthold, M.R.; Moewes, C.; Gil, M.A.; Grzegorzewski, P.; Hryniewicz, O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. Time series data exhibits complex behavior including non-linearity and path-dependency. This paper proposes a flexible fuzzy GARCH model that can capture different properties of data, such as skewness, fat tails and multimodality in one single model. Furthermore, additional information and

  15. Volatility estimation using a rational GARCH model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Takaishi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The rational GARCH (RGARCH model has been proposed as an alternative GARCHmodel that captures the asymmetric property of volatility. In addition to the previously proposedRGARCH model, we propose an alternative RGARCH model called the RGARCH-Exp model thatis more stable when dealing with outliers. We measure the performance of the volatility estimationby a loss function calculated using realized volatility as a proxy for true volatility and compare theRGARCH-type models with other asymmetric type models such as the EGARCH and GJR models.We conduct empirical studies of six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and find that a volatilityestimation using the RGARCH-type models outperforms the GARCH model and is comparable toother asymmetric GARCH models.

  16. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  17. Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits ''volatility clustering'' also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics

  18. Option valuation with the simplified component GARCH model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce the Simplified Component GARCH (SC-GARCH) option pricing model, show and discuss sufficient conditions for non-negativity of the conditional variance, apply it to low-frequency and high-frequency financial data, and consider the option valuation, comparing the model performance...

  19. Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annestiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    A new multivariate volatility model that belongs to the family of conditional correlation GARCH models is introduced. The GARCH equations of this model contain a multiplicative deterministic component to describe long-run movements in volatility and, in addition, the correlations...

  20. Modeling the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar using the ARCH/GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačević Radovan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of time series with conditional heteroskedasticity (changeable time variability, conditional variance instability, the phenomenon called volatility is the main task of ARCH and GARCH models. The aim of these models is to calculate some of the volatility indicators needed for financial decisions. This paper examines the performance of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model in modeling the daily changes of the log exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. Several GARCH models have been applied for modeling the daily log exchange rate returns of the euro, with a different number of parameters. The characteristic of estimated GARCH models is that the obtained coefficients of lagged squared residuals and the conditional variance parameters in the equation of conditional variance have a strong statistical significance. The sum of these two coefficients' estimates is close to a unit, which is typical for GARCH models that are applied on the data of financial assets returns. This means that the shocks in the conditional variance equation will be long lasting. The great value of the sum of these two coefficients shows that the high rates of positive or negative returns leads to a large forecasted value of the variance in the prolonged period. The asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1 model has showed the best results in modeling the euro exchange rate returns. The asymmetry term in the conditional variance equation of this model is negative and statistically significant. A negative value of this term suggests that the positive shock has less impact on the conditional variance than the negative shocks. The asymmetric EGARCH (1,1 model provides evidence of a leverage effect.

  1. Nonlinear GARCH model and 1 / f noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kononovicius, A.; Ruseckas, J.

    2015-06-01

    Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1,1) process and its nonlinear modifications, reminiscent of NGARCH model. We investigate the possibility to reproduce power law statistics, probability density function and power spectral density, using ARCH family models. For this purpose we derive stochastic differential equations from the GARCH processes in consideration. We find the obtained equations to be similar to a general class of stochastic differential equations known to reproduce power law statistics. We show that linear GARCH(1,1) process has power law distribution, but its power spectral density is Brownian noise-like. However, the nonlinear modifications exhibit both power law distribution and power spectral density of the 1 /fβ form, including 1 / f noise.

  2. Realized GARCH: A Complete Model of Returns and Realized Measures of Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Huang, Zhuo (Albert); Shek, Howard Howan

    GARCH models have been successful in modeling financial returns. Still, much is to be gained by incorporating a realized measure of volatility in these models. In this paper we introduce a new framework for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility. The Realized GARCH...... framework nests most GARCH models as special cases and is, in many ways, a natural extension of standard GARCH models. We pay special attention to linear and log-linear Realized GARCH specifications. This class of models has several attractive features. It retains the simplicity and tractability...... to latent volatility. This equation facilitates a simple modeling of the dependence between returns and future volatility that is commonly referred to as the leverage effect. An empirical application with DJIA stocks and an exchange traded index fund shows that a simple Realized GARCH structure leads...

  3. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  4. Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-08-01

    The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

  5. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  6. PERBANDINGAN MODEL OPSI BLACKSCHOLES DAN MODEL OPSI GARCH DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riko Hendrawan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research was to compare the accuracy of Black-Scholes Opt ionModel and GARCH opt ion models for Stock opt ion ut ilizing data f rom Ast ra, BCA, Indofoodand Telkom at the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The intraday stock return of Astra, BCA, Indofoodand Telkom exhibited an overwhelming presence of volat ilit y cluster, suggesting that GARCHmodel had an ef fect which best corresponded with the actual price. The best model wasconst ructed using ARIMA model and the best lag in GARCH model was ext racted. The findingf rom this research showed that by comparing the average percentage mean squared errors ofthe GARCH Opt ion Model and the Black-Scholes Opt ion Model, the former was found moreaccurate than the lat ter. GARCH Model relat ively improved average percentage mean squarederrors of Black-Scholes Model; one month opt ion showed a twent y eight point ten percentimprovement , two month option showed twenty three point thirt y percent and three monthopt ion showed twent y percent .

  7. Volatility forecasting with the wavelet transformation algorithm GARCH model: Evidence from African stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Tahir Ismail

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The daily returns of four African countries' stock market indices for the period January 2, 2000, to December 31, 2014, were employed to compare the GARCH(1,1 model and a newly proposed Maximal Overlap Discreet Wavelet Transform (MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model. The results showed that although both models fit the returns data well, the forecast produced by the GARCH(1,1 model underestimates the observed returns whereas the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model generates an accurate forecast value of the observed returns. The results generally showed that the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model best fits returns series for these African countries. Hence the proposed MODWT-GARCH should be applied on other context to further verify its validity.

  8. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  9. Evaluating Portfolio Value-At-Risk Using Semi-Parametric GARCH Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.V.K. Rombouts; M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.

  10. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  11. Empirical Results of Modeling EUR/RON Exchange Rate using ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea – Cristina PETRICĂ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study consists in examining the changes in the volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using on the one hand symmetric GARCH models (ARCH and GARCH and on the other hand the asymmetric GARCH models (EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH, since the conditional variance is time-varying. The analysis takes into account daily quotations of EUR/RON exchange rate over the period of 04th January 1999 to 13th June 2016. Thus, we are modeling heteroscedasticity by applying different specifications of GARCH models followed by looking for significant parameters and low information criteria (minimum Akaike Information Criterion. All models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of several distributions of the innovation terms such as: Normal (Gaussian distribution, Student’s t distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED, Student’s with fixed df. Distribution, and GED with fixed parameter distribution. The predominant models turned out to be EGARCH and PARCH models, and the empirical results point out that the best model for estimating daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate is EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 under the assumption of Student’s t distributed innovation terms. This can be explained by the fact that in case of EGARCH model, the restriction regarding the positivity of the conditional variance is automatically satisfied.

  12. Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, Jui-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Chih; Liu, Hung-Chun

    2008-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate distribution for return innovations is important in VaR applications owing to its ability to directly affect the estimation quality of the required quantiles. This study investigates the influence of fat-tailed innovation process on the performance of one-day-ahead VaR estimates using three GARCH models (GARCH-N, GARCH-t and GARCH-HT). Daily spot prices of five energy commodities (WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, heating oil 2, propane and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular) are used to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the VaR models. Empirical results suggest that for asset returns that exhibit leptokurtic and fat-tailed features, the VaR estimates generated by the GARCH-HT models have good accuracy at both low and high confidence levels. Additionally, MRSB indicates that the GARCH-HT model is more efficient than alternatives for most cases at high confidence levels. These findings suggest that the heavy-tailed distribution is more suitable for energy commodities, particularly VaR calculation. (author)

  13. Cross-Sectional Distribution of GARCH Coefficients across S&P 500 Constituents: Time-Variation over the Period 2000-2012

    OpenAIRE

    David Ardia; Lennart F. Hoogerheide

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the time-variation of the cross-sectional distribution of asymmetric GARCH model parameters over the S&P 500 constituents for the period 2000-2012. We find the following results. First, the unconditional variances in the GARCH model obviously show major time-variation, with a high level after the dot-com bubble and the highest peak in the latest financial crisis. Second, in these more volatile periods it is especially the persistence of deviations of volatility from is uncondit...

  14. Realized Beta GARCH: A Multivariate GARCH Model with Realized Measures of Volatility and CoVolatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Voev, Valeri

    We introduce a multivariate GARCH model that utilizes and models realized measures of volatility and covolatility. The realized measures extract information contained in high-frequency data that is particularly beneficial during periods with variation in volatility and covolatility. Applying the ...

  15. On discrete models of space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horzela, A.; Kempczynski, J.; Kapuscik, E.; Georgia Univ., Athens, GA; Uzes, Ch.

    1992-02-01

    Analyzing the Einstein radiolocation method we come to the conclusion that results of any measurement of space-time coordinates should be expressed in terms of rational numbers. We show that this property is Lorentz invariant and may be used in the construction of discrete models of space-time different from the models of the lattice type constructed in the process of discretization of continuous models. (author)

  16. On Diagnostic Checking of Vector ARMA-GARCH Models with Gaussian and Student-t Innovations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongning Wang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the diagnostic checking of vector ARMA (VARMA models with multivariate GARCH errors. For a fitted VARMA-GARCH model with Gaussian or Student-t innovations, we derive the asymptotic distributions of autocorrelation matrices of the cross-product vector of standardized residuals. This is different from the traditional approach that employs only the squared series of standardized residuals. We then study two portmanteau statistics, called Q1(M and Q2(M, for model checking. A residual-based bootstrap method is provided and demonstrated as an effective way to approximate the diagnostic checking statistics. Simulations are used to compare the performance of the proposed statistics with other methods available in the literature. In addition, we also investigate the effect of GARCH shocks on checking a fitted VARMA model. Empirical sizes and powers of the proposed statistics are investigated and the results suggest a procedure of using jointly Q1(M and Q2(M in diagnostic checking. The bivariate time series of FTSE 100 and DAX index returns is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed portmanteau statistics. The results show that it is important to consider the cross-product series of standardized residuals and GARCH effects in model checking.

  17. Ranking multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. The two most widely known and used are the Scalar BEKK model of Engle and Kroner (1995) and Ding and Engle (2001), and the DCC model of Engle (2002). Some recent research has begun to

  18. International evidence on crude oil price dynamics. Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Hassan; Su, Lixian

    2010-01-01

    We examine the usefulness of several ARIMA-GARCH models for modeling and forecasting the conditional mean and volatility of weekly crude oil spot prices in eleven international markets over the 1/2/1997-10/3/2009 period. In particular, we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four volatility models - GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH and FIGARCH over January 2009 to October 2009. Forecasting results are somewhat mixed, but in most cases, the APARCH model outperforms the others. Also, conditional standard deviation captures the volatility in oil returns better than the traditional conditional variance. Finally, shocks to conditional volatility dissipate at an exponential rate, which is consistent with the covariance-stationary GARCH models than the slow hyperbolic rate implied by the FIGARCH alternative. (author)

  19. Quadratic Term Structure Models in Discrete Time

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Realdon

    2006-01-01

    This paper extends the results on quadratic term structure models in continuos time to the discrete time setting. The continuos time setting can be seen as a special case of the discrete time one. Recursive closed form solutions for zero coupon bonds are provided even in the presence of multiple correlated underlying factors. Pricing bond options requires simple integration. Model parameters may well be time dependent without scuppering such tractability. Model estimation does not require a r...

  20. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  1. Modeling discrete time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-01-01

    This book focuses on statistical methods for the analysis of discrete failure times. Failure time analysis is one of the most important fields in statistical research, with applications affecting a wide range of disciplines, in particular, demography, econometrics, epidemiology and clinical research. Although there are a large variety of statistical methods for failure time analysis, many techniques are designed for failure times that are measured on a continuous scale. In empirical studies, however, failure times are often discrete, either because they have been measured in intervals (e.g., quarterly or yearly) or because they have been rounded or grouped. The book covers well-established methods like life-table analysis and discrete hazard regression models, but also introduces state-of-the art techniques for model evaluation, nonparametric estimation and variable selection. Throughout, the methods are illustrated by real life applications, and relationships to survival analysis in continuous time are expla...

  2. Modeling Covariance Breakdowns in Multivariate GARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Xin; Maheu, John M

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a flexible way of modeling dynamic heterogeneous covariance breakdowns in multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models. During periods of normal market activity, volatility dynamics are governed by an MGARCH specification. A covariance breakdown is any significant temporary deviation of the conditional covariance matrix from its implied MGARCH dynamics. This is captured through a flexible stochastic component that allows for changes in the conditional variances, covariances and impl...

  3. Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Jingzhou; Zhou, Jianting; Yang, Simon X; Li, Xiaoqing; Wang, Yu

    2018-01-19

    Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1) the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2) the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3) in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity); the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data using sensing

  4. Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingzhou Xin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH. Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1 the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2 the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3 in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity; the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data

  5. Discrete-time rewards model-checked

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larsen, K.G.; Andova, S.; Niebert, Peter; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a model-checking approach for analyzing discrete-time Markov reward models. For this purpose, the temporal logic probabilistic CTL is extended with reward constraints. This allows to formulate complex measures – involving expected as well as accumulated rewards – in a precise and

  6. Volatility in GARCH Models of Business Tendency Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuni, Dwi A. S.; Wage, Sutarman; Hartono, Ateng

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to obtain a model of business tendency index by considering volatility factor. Volatility factor detected by ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity). The ARCH checking was performed using the Lagrange multiplier test. The modeling is Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) are able to overcome volatility problems by incorporating past residual elements and residual variants.

  7. Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. We provide an empirical comparison of alternative MGARCH models,

  8. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  9. Determining the Best Arch/Garch Model and Comparing JKSE with Stock Index in Developed Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The slow movement of Indonesia economic growth in 2014 due to several factors, in internal factors; due to the high interest rates in Indonesia and external factors from the US which will raise the fed rate this year. However, JKSE shows a sharp increase trend from the beginning of 2014 until the second quarter of 2015 although it remains fluctuate but insignificant. The purpose of this research is to determine the best ARCH/ GARCH model in JKSE and stock index in developed countries (FTSE, Nasdaq and STI and then compare the JKSE with the stock index in developed countries (FTSE, Nasdaq and STI. The results obtained in this study is to determine the best model of ARCH / GARCH, it is obtained that JKSE is GARCH (1,2, while the FTSE obtains GARCH (2,2, NASDAQ produces the best model which is GARCH (1,1 and STI with GARCH (2,1, and the results of the comparison of JKSE with FTSE, NASDAQ and STI are that even though JKSE fluctuates with moderate levels but the trend shown upward trend. This is different with other stock indexes fluctuated highly and tends to have a downward trend.

  10. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  11. Physical models on discrete space and time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorente, M.

    1986-01-01

    The idea of space and time quantum operators with a discrete spectrum has been proposed frequently since the discovery that some physical quantities exhibit measured values that are multiples of fundamental units. This paper first reviews a number of these physical models. They are: the method of finite elements proposed by Bender et al; the quantum field theory model on discrete space-time proposed by Yamamoto; the finite dimensional quantum mechanics approach proposed by Santhanam et al; the idea of space-time as lattices of n-simplices proposed by Kaplunovsky et al; and the theory of elementary processes proposed by Weizsaecker and his colleagues. The paper then presents a model proposed by the authors and based on the (n+1)-dimensional space-time lattice where fundamental entities interact among themselves 1 to 2n in order to build up a n-dimensional cubic lattice as a ground field where the physical interactions take place. The space-time coordinates are nothing more than the labelling of the ground field and take only discrete values. 11 references

  12. Semiparametric Inference in a GARCH-in-Mean Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    A new semiparametric estimator for an empirical asset pricing model with general nonpara- metric risk-return tradeoff and a GARCH process for the underlying volatility is introduced. The estimator does not rely on any initial parametric estimator of the conditional mean func- tion, and this feature...... facilitates the derivation of asymptotic theory under possible nonlinearity of unspecified form of the risk-return tradeoff. Besides the nonlinear GARCH-in-mean effect, our specification accommodates exogenous regressors that are typically used as conditioning variables entering linearly in the mean equation...... with the fully parametric approach and the iterative semiparametric approach using a parametric initial esti- mate proposed by Conrad and Mammen (2008). An empirical application to the daily S&P 500 stock market returns suggests that the linear relation between conditional expected return and conditional...

  13. Using Garch-in-Mean Model to Investigate Volatility and Persistence at Different Frequencies for Bucharest Stock Exchange during 1997-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian PANAIT

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In our paper we use data mining to compare the volatility structure of high (daily and low (weekly, monthly frequencies for seven Romanian companies traded on Bucharest Stock Exchange and three market indices, during 1997-2012. For each of the 10 time series and three frequencies we fit a GARCH-in-mean model and we find that persistency is more present in the daily returns as compared with the weekly and monthly series. On the other hand, the GARCH-in-mean failed to confirm (on our data the theoretical hypothesis that an increase in volatility leads to a rise in future returns, mainly because the variance coefficient from the mean equation of the model was not statistically significant for most of the time series analyzed and on most of the frequencies. The diagnosis that we ran in order the verify the goodness of fit for the model showed that GARCH-in-mean was well fitted on the weekly and monthly time series but behaved less well on the daily time series.

  14. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  15. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  16. The problem with time in mixed continuous/discrete time modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovers, K.C.; Kuper, Jan; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    The design of cyber-physical systems requires the use of mixed continuous time and discrete time models. Current modelling tools have problems with time transformations (such as a time delay) or multi-rate systems. We will present a novel approach that implements signals as functions of time,

  17. Nonstationary ARCH and GARCH with t-distributed Innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the maximum likelihood estimators in the nonstationary ARCH and GARCH models with general t-distributed innovations. The results hold for joint estimation of (G)ARCH effects and the degrees of freedom parameter parametrizing the t-distribut......Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the maximum likelihood estimators in the nonstationary ARCH and GARCH models with general t-distributed innovations. The results hold for joint estimation of (G)ARCH effects and the degrees of freedom parameter parametrizing the t......-distribution. With T denoting sample size, classic square-root T-convergence is shown to hold with closed form expressions for the multivariate covariances....

  18. Estimating Price Volatility Structure in Iran’s Meat Market: Application of General GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Rasouli Birami

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past few years, the price volatility of agricultural products and food markets has attracted attention of many researchers and policy makers. This growing attention was started from the food price crisis in 2007 and 2008 when major agricultural products faced accelerated price increases and then rapidly decreased. This paper focused on the price volatility of major commodities related to three market levels of Iran’s meat market, including hay (the input level, calf and sheep (the wholesale level and beef and mutton (the retail level. In particular, efforts will made to find more appropriate models for explaining the behavior of volatility of the return series and to identify which return series are more volatile. The effects of good and bad news on the volatility of prices in each return series will also be studied. Materials and Methods: Different GARCH type models have been considered the best for modeling volatility of return series. Nonlinear GARCH models were introduced to capture the effect of good and bad news separately. The paper uses some GARCH type models including GARCH, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, Threshold GARCH (TGARCH, Simple Asymmetric GARCH (SAGARCH, Power GARCH (PGARCH, Non-linear GARCH (NGARCH, Asymmetric Power GARCH (APGARCH and Non-linear Power GARCH (NPGARCH to model the volatility of hay, calf, sheep, beef and mutton return series. The data on hay, calf, sheep, and beef and mutton monthly prices are published by Iran’s livestock support firm. The paper uses monthly data over the sample period of the May 1992 to the March 2014. Results and Discussion: Descriptive statistics of the studied return series show evidence of skewness and kurtosis. The results here show that all the series has fat tails. The significant p-values for the Ljung-Box Q-statistics mean that the auto-correlation exists in the squared residuals. The presence of unit roots in the return series is confirmed by the

  19. Ecological monitoring in a discrete-time prey-predator model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gámez, M; López, I; Rodríguez, C; Varga, Z; Garay, J

    2017-09-21

    The paper is aimed at the methodological development of ecological monitoring in discrete-time dynamic models. In earlier papers, in the framework of continuous-time models, we have shown how a systems-theoretical methodology can be applied to the monitoring of the state process of a system of interacting populations, also estimating certain abiotic environmental changes such as pollution, climatic or seasonal changes. In practice, however, there may be good reasons to use discrete-time models. (For instance, there may be discrete cycles in the development of the populations, or observations can be made only at discrete time steps.) Therefore the present paper is devoted to the development of the monitoring methodology in the framework of discrete-time models of population ecology. By monitoring we mean that, observing only certain component(s) of the system, we reconstruct the whole state process. This may be necessary, e.g., when in a complex ecosystem the observation of the densities of certain species is impossible, or too expensive. For the first presentation of the offered methodology, we have chosen a discrete-time version of the classical Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. This is a minimal but not trivial system where the methodology can still be presented. We also show how this methodology can be applied to estimate the effect of an abiotic environmental change, using a component of the population system as an environmental indicator. Although this approach is illustrated in a simplest possible case, it can be easily extended to larger ecosystems with several interacting populations and different types of abiotic environmental effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. GARCH Option Valuation: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Ornthanalai, Chayawat

    We survey the theory and empirical evidence on GARCH option valuation models. Our treatment includes the range of functional forms available for the volatility dynamic, multifactor models, nonnormal shock distributions as well as style of pricing kernels typically used. Various strategies...... for empirical implementation are laid out and we also discuss the links between GARCH and stochastic volatility models. In the appendix we provide Matlab computer code for option pricing via Monte Carlo simulation for nonaffine models as well as Fourier inversion for affine models....

  1. Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIn the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. In this paper, we provide an empirical comparison of a set of models,

  2. Exponential GARCH Modeling with Realized Measures of Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Huang, Zhuo

    returns and volatility. We apply the model to DJIA stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index and find that specifications with multiple realized measures dominate those that rely on a single realized measure. The empirical analysis suggests some convenient simplifications......We introduce the Realized Exponential GARCH model that can utilize multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series. The model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures, and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between...

  3. Hedging with futures: an application of GARCH to european electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    G. Zanotti; G. Gabbi; M. Geranio

    2009-01-01

    European electricity markets have been subject to a broad deregulation process in the last few decades. We analyse hedging policies implemented through different hedge ratios estimation. More specifically we compare naïve, ordinary least squares, and GARCH conditional variance and correlations models to test if GARCH models lead to higher variance reduction in a context of high time varying volatility as the case of electricity markets. Our results show that the choice of the hedge ratio esti...

  4. Applied discrete-time queues

    CERN Document Server

    Alfa, Attahiru S

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces the theoretical fundamentals for modeling queues in discrete-time, and the basic procedures for developing queuing models in discrete-time. There is a focus on applications in modern telecommunication systems. It presents how most queueing models in discrete-time can be set up as discrete-time Markov chains. Techniques such as matrix-analytic methods (MAM) that can used to analyze the resulting Markov chains are included. This book covers single node systems, tandem system and queueing networks. It shows how queues with time-varying parameters can be analyzed, and illustrates numerical issues associated with computations for the discrete-time queueing systems. Optimal control of queues is also covered. Applied Discrete-Time Queues targets researchers, advanced-level students and analysts in the field of telecommunication networks. It is suitable as a reference book and can also be used as a secondary text book in computer engineering and computer science. Examples and exercises are includ...

  5. Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2014-09-01

    The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

  6. Performance analysis of chi models using discrete-time probabilistic reward graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Markovski, J.; Andova, S.; Vink, de E.P.

    2008-01-01

    We propose the model of discrete-time probabilistic reward graphs (DTPRGs) for performance analysis of systems exhibiting discrete deterministic time delays and probabilistic behavior, via their interpretation as discrete-time Markov reward chains, full-fledged platform for qualitative and

  7. Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    -run and the short-run dynamic behaviour of the volatilities. The structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time. We apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the S&P 500 composite index and traded at the New York Stock Exchange......In this paper we investigate the effects of careful modelling the long-run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure. To this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in Conditional Correlation GARCH models to change smoothly over time...... by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations. The modelling technique to determine the parametric structure of this time-varying component is based on a sequence of specification Lagrange multiplier-type tests derived in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011). The variance equations combine the long...

  8. Modelling of cayenne production in Central Java using ARIMA-GARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarno; Sudarno; Ispriyanti, Dwi; Suparti

    2018-05-01

    Some regencies/cities in Central Java Province are known as producers of horticultural crops in Indonesia, for example, Brebes which is the largest area of shallot producer in Central Java, while the others, such as Cilacap and Wonosobo are the areas of cayenne commodities production. Currently, cayenne is a strategic commodity and it has broad impact to Indonesian economic development. Modelling the cayenne production is necessary to predict about the commodity to meet the need for society. The needs fulfillment of society will affect stability of the concerned commodity price. Based on the reality, the decreasing of cayenne production will cause the increasing of society’s basic needs price, and finally it will affect the inflation level at that area. This research focused on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling by considering the effect of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) to study about cayenne production in Central Java. The result of empirical study of ARIMA-GARCH modelling for cayenne production in Central Java from January 2003 to November 2015 is ARIMA([1,3],0,0)-GARCH(1,0) as the best model.

  9. American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stentoft, Lars Peter

    In this paper we propose a feasible way to price American options in a model with time varying volatility and conditional skewness and leptokurtosis using GARCH processes and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. We show how the risk neutral dynamics can be obtained in this model, we interpret...... properties shows that there are important option pricing differences compared to the Gaussian case as well as to the symmetric special case. A large scale empirical examination shows that our model outperforms the Gaussian case for pricing options on three large US stocks as well as a major index...

  10. A Monte Carlo study of time-aggregation in continuous-time and discrete-time parametric hazard models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, ter F.; Wedel, M.

    1998-01-01

    This study investigates the effects of time aggregation in discrete and continuous-time hazard models. A Monte Carlo study is conducted in which data are generated according to various continuous and discrete-time processes, and aggregated into daily, weekly and monthly intervals. These data are

  11. Assessing Efficiency of D-Vine Copula ARMA-GARCH Method in Value at Risk Forecasting: Evidence from PSE Listed Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Klepáč

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out the possibilities of using static D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model for estimation of 1 day ahead market Value at Risk. For the illustration we use data of the four companies listed on Prague Stock Exchange in range from 2010 to 2014. Vine copula approach allows us to construct high-dimensional copula from both elliptical and Archimedean bivariate copulas, i.e. multivariate probability distribution, created from process innovations. Due to a deeper shortage of existing domestic results or comparison studies with advanced volatility governed VaR forecasts we backtested D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model against the VaR rolling out of sample forecast from October 2012 to April 2014 of chosen benchmark models, e.g. multivariate VAR-GO-GARCH, VAR-DCC-GARCH and univariate ARMA-GARCH type models. Common backtesting via Kupiec and Christoffersen procedures offer generalization that technological superiority of model supports accuracy only in case of an univariate modeling – working with non-basic GARCH models and innovations with leptokurtic distributions. Multivariate VAR governed type models and static Copula Vines performed in stated backtesting comparison worse than selected univariate ARMA-GARCH, i.e. it have overestimated the level of actual market risk, probably due to hardly tractable time-varying dependence structure.

  12. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  13. MODEL NON LINIER GARCH (NGARCH UNTUK MENGESTIMASI NILAI VALUE at RISK (VaR PADA IHSG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I KOMANG TRY BAYU MAHENDRA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In investment, risk measurement is important. One of risk measure is Value at Risk (VaR. There are many methods that can be used to estimate risk based on VaR framework. One of them Non Linier GARCH (NGARCH model. In this research, determination of VaR used NGARCH model. NGARCH model allowed for asymetric behaviour in the volatility such that “good news” or positive return and “bad news” or negative return. Based on calculations of VaR, the higher of the confidence level and the longer the investment period, the risk was greater. Determination of VaR using NGARCH model was less than GARCH model.

  14. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Zhongfu; Zhang, Jinliang; Xu, Jun; Wang, Jianhui

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel price forecasting method based on wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models. By wavelet transform, the historical price series is decomposed and reconstructed into one approximation series and some detail series. Then each subseries can be separately predicted by a suitable time series model. The final forecast is obtained by composing the forecasted results of each subseries. This proposed method is examined on Spanish and PJM electricity markets and compared with some other forecasting methods. (author)

  15. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  16. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiechen Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR. Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  17. Time-aggregation effects on the baseline of continuous-time and discrete-time hazard models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ter Hofstede, F.; Wedel, M.

    In this study we reinvestigate the effect of time-aggregation for discrete- and continuous-time hazard models. We reanalyze the results of a previous Monte Carlo study by ter Hofstede and Wedel (1998), in which the effects of time-aggregation on the parameter estimates of hazard models were

  18. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  19. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  20. Nonparametric volatility density estimation for discrete time models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Es, van Bert; Spreij, P.J.C.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2005-01-01

    We consider discrete time models for asset prices with a stationary volatility process. We aim at estimating the multivariate density of this process at a set of consecutive time instants. A Fourier-type deconvolution kernel density estimator based on the logarithm of the squared process is proposed

  1. Discrete-time modelling of musical instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaelimaeki, Vesa; Pakarinen, Jyri; Erkut, Cumhur; Karjalainen, Matti

    2006-01-01

    This article describes physical modelling techniques that can be used for simulating musical instruments. The methods are closely related to digital signal processing. They discretize the system with respect to time, because the aim is to run the simulation using a computer. The physics-based modelling methods can be classified as mass-spring, modal, wave digital, finite difference, digital waveguide and source-filter models. We present the basic theory and a discussion on possible extensions for each modelling technique. For some methods, a simple model example is chosen from the existing literature demonstrating a typical use of the method. For instance, in the case of the digital waveguide modelling technique a vibrating string model is discussed, and in the case of the wave digital filter technique we present a classical piano hammer model. We tackle some nonlinear and time-varying models and include new results on the digital waveguide modelling of a nonlinear string. Current trends and future directions in physical modelling of musical instruments are discussed

  2. Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2018-04-12

    We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

  3. Inference and testing on the boundary in extended constant conditional correlation GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    We consider inference and testing in extended constant conditional correlation GARCH models in the case where the true parameter vector is a boundary point of the parameter space. This is of particular importance when testing for volatility spillovers in the model. The large-sample properties...

  4. Stable cycling in discrete-time genetic models.

    OpenAIRE

    Hastings, A

    1981-01-01

    Examples of stable cycling are discussed for two-locus, two-allele, deterministic, discrete-time models with constant fitnesses. The cases that cycle were found by using numerical techniques to search for stable Hopf bifurcations. One consequence of the results is that apparent cases of directional selection may be due to stable cycling.

  5. Stable cycling in discrete-time genetic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, A

    1981-11-01

    Examples of stable cycling are discussed for two-locus, two-allele, deterministic, discrete-time models with constant fitnesses. The cases that cycle were found by using numerical techniques to search for stable Hopf bifurcations. One consequence of the results is that apparent cases of directional selection may be due to stable cycling.

  6. Discrete-Slots Models of Visual Working-Memory Response Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donkin, Christopher; Nosofsky, Robert M.; Gold, Jason M.; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Much recent research has aimed to establish whether visual working memory (WM) is better characterized by a limited number of discrete all-or-none slots or by a continuous sharing of memory resources. To date, however, researchers have not considered the response-time (RT) predictions of discrete-slots versus shared-resources models. To complement the past research in this field, we formalize a family of mixed-state, discrete-slots models for explaining choice and RTs in tasks of visual WM change detection. In the tasks under investigation, a small set of visual items is presented, followed by a test item in 1 of the studied positions for which a change judgment must be made. According to the models, if the studied item in that position is retained in 1 of the discrete slots, then a memory-based evidence-accumulation process determines the choice and the RT; if the studied item in that position is missing, then a guessing-based accumulation process operates. Observed RT distributions are therefore theorized to arise as probabilistic mixtures of the memory-based and guessing distributions. We formalize an analogous set of continuous shared-resources models. The model classes are tested on individual subjects with both qualitative contrasts and quantitative fits to RT-distribution data. The discrete-slots models provide much better qualitative and quantitative accounts of the RT and choice data than do the shared-resources models, although there is some evidence for “slots plus resources” when memory set size is very small. PMID:24015956

  7. Bitcoin, gold and the dollar: A GARCH volatility analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the financial asset capabilities of bitcoin using GARCH models. The initial model showed several similarities to gold and the dollar indicating hedging capabilities and advantages as a medium of exchange. The asymmetric GARCH showed that bitcoin may be useful in risk management and ideal for risk averse investors in anticipation of negative shocks to the market. Overall bitcoin has a place on the financial markets and in portfolio management as it can be classified as some...

  8. Integrating Continuous-Time and Discrete-Event Concepts in Process Modelling, Simulation and Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Gordijn, S.H.F.; Rooda, J.E.; Ertas, A.

    1995-01-01

    Currently, modelling of systems in the process industry requires the use of different specification languages for the specification of the discrete-event and continuous-time subsystems. In this way, models are restricted to individual subsystems of either a continuous-time or discrete-event nature.

  9. Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

    2014-07-01

    Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

  10. The relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and stock volatility in GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Chen, Ting Ting

    2016-08-01

    We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatility. The impact of trading volumes or number of transactions on volatility is measured using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We find that the GARCH effects, that is, persistence of volatility, is not always removed by adding trading volumes or number of transactions, indicating that trading volumes and number of transactions do not adequately represent the rate of information arrivals.

  11. Local and global dynamics of Ramsey model: From continuous to discrete time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzowska, Malgorzata; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2018-05-01

    The choice of time as a discrete or continuous variable may radically affect equilibrium stability in an endogenous growth model with durable consumption. In the continuous-time Ramsey model [F. P. Ramsey, Econ. J. 38(152), 543-559 (1928)], the steady state is locally saddle-path stable with monotonic convergence. However, in the discrete-time version, the steady state may be unstable or saddle-path stable with monotonic or oscillatory convergence or periodic solutions [see R.-A. Dana et al., Handbook on Optimal Growth 1 (Springer, 2006) and G. Sorger, Working Paper No. 1505 (2015)]. When this occurs, the discrete-time counterpart of the continuous-time model is not consistent with the initial framework. In order to obtain a discrete-time Ramsey model preserving the main properties of the continuous-time counterpart, we use a general backward and forward discretisation as initially proposed by Bosi and Ragot [Theor. Econ. Lett. 2(1), 10-15 (2012)]. The main result of the study here presented is that, with this hybrid discretisation method, fixed points and local dynamics do not change. For what it concerns global dynamics, i.e., long-run behavior for initial conditions taken on the state space, we mainly perform numerical analysis with the main scope of comparing both qualitative and quantitative evolution of the two systems, also varying some parameters of interest.

  12. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  13. Space-Time Discrete KPZ Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannizzaro, G.; Matetski, K.

    2018-03-01

    We study a general family of space-time discretizations of the KPZ equation and show that they converge to its solution. The approach we follow makes use of basic elements of the theory of regularity structures (Hairer in Invent Math 198(2):269-504, 2014) as well as its discrete counterpart (Hairer and Matetski in Discretizations of rough stochastic PDEs, 2015. arXiv:1511.06937). Since the discretization is in both space and time and we allow non-standard discretization for the product, the methods mentioned above have to be suitably modified in order to accommodate the structure of the models under study.

  14. Partition-based discrete-time quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konno, Norio; Portugal, Renato; Sato, Iwao; Segawa, Etsuo

    2018-04-01

    We introduce a family of discrete-time quantum walks, called two-partition model, based on two equivalence-class partitions of the computational basis, which establish the notion of local dynamics. This family encompasses most versions of unitary discrete-time quantum walks driven by two local operators studied in literature, such as the coined model, Szegedy's model, and the 2-tessellable staggered model. We also analyze the connection of those models with the two-step coined model, which is driven by the square of the evolution operator of the standard discrete-time coined walk. We prove formally that the two-step coined model, an extension of Szegedy model for multigraphs, and the two-tessellable staggered model are unitarily equivalent. Then, selecting one specific model among those families is a matter of taste not generality.

  15. Hybrid discrete-time neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hongjun; Ibarz, Borja

    2010-11-13

    Hybrid dynamical systems combine evolution equations with state transitions. When the evolution equations are discrete-time (also called map-based), the result is a hybrid discrete-time system. A class of biological neural network models that has recently received some attention falls within this category: map-based neuron models connected by means of fast threshold modulation (FTM). FTM is a connection scheme that aims to mimic the switching dynamics of a neuron subject to synaptic inputs. The dynamic equations of the neuron adopt different forms according to the state (either firing or not firing) and type (excitatory or inhibitory) of their presynaptic neighbours. Therefore, the mathematical model of one such network is a combination of discrete-time evolution equations with transitions between states, constituting a hybrid discrete-time (map-based) neural network. In this paper, we review previous work within the context of these models, exemplifying useful techniques to analyse them. Typical map-based neuron models are low-dimensional and amenable to phase-plane analysis. In bursting models, fast-slow decomposition can be used to reduce dimensionality further, so that the dynamics of a pair of connected neurons can be easily understood. We also discuss a model that includes electrical synapses in addition to chemical synapses with FTM. Furthermore, we describe how master stability functions can predict the stability of synchronized states in these networks. The main results are extended to larger map-based neural networks.

  16. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  17. Targeting estimation of CCC-GARCH models with infinite fourth moments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard

    . In this paper we consider the large-sample properties of the variance targeting estimator for the multivariate extended constant conditional correlation GARCH model when the distribution of the data generating process has infinite fourth moments. Using non-standard limit theory we derive new results...... for the estimator stating that its limiting distribution is multivariate stable. The rate of consistency of the estimator is slower than √Τ (as obtained by the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator) and depends on the tails of the data generating process....

  18. Fermion systems in discrete space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finster, Felix

    2007-01-01

    Fermion systems in discrete space-time are introduced as a model for physics on the Planck scale. We set up a variational principle which describes a non-local interaction of all fermions. This variational principle is symmetric under permutations of the discrete space-time points. We explain how for minimizers of the variational principle, the fermions spontaneously break this permutation symmetry and induce on space-time a discrete causal structure

  19. Fermion systems in discrete space-time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finster, Felix [NWF I - Mathematik, Universitaet Regensburg, 93040 Regensburg (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Fermion systems in discrete space-time are introduced as a model for physics on the Planck scale. We set up a variational principle which describes a non-local interaction of all fermions. This variational principle is symmetric under permutations of the discrete space-time points. We explain how for minimizers of the variational principle, the fermions spontaneously break this permutation symmetry and induce on space-time a discrete causal structure.

  20. Fermion Systems in Discrete Space-Time

    OpenAIRE

    Finster, Felix

    2006-01-01

    Fermion systems in discrete space-time are introduced as a model for physics on the Planck scale. We set up a variational principle which describes a non-local interaction of all fermions. This variational principle is symmetric under permutations of the discrete space-time points. We explain how for minimizers of the variational principle, the fermions spontaneously break this permutation symmetry and induce on space-time a discrete causal structure.

  1. Fermion systems in discrete space-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finster, Felix

    2007-05-01

    Fermion systems in discrete space-time are introduced as a model for physics on the Planck scale. We set up a variational principle which describes a non-local interaction of all fermions. This variational principle is symmetric under permutations of the discrete space-time points. We explain how for minimizers of the variational principle, the fermions spontaneously break this permutation symmetry and induce on space-time a discrete causal structure.

  2. A mathematical approach for evaluating Markov models in continuous time without discrete-event simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rosmalen, Joost; Toy, Mehlika; O'Mahony, James F

    2013-08-01

    Markov models are a simple and powerful tool for analyzing the health and economic effects of health care interventions. These models are usually evaluated in discrete time using cohort analysis. The use of discrete time assumes that changes in health states occur only at the end of a cycle period. Discrete-time Markov models only approximate the process of disease progression, as clinical events typically occur in continuous time. The approximation can yield biased cost-effectiveness estimates for Markov models with long cycle periods and if no half-cycle correction is made. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of methods for evaluating Markov models in continuous time. These methods use mathematical results from stochastic process theory and control theory. The methods are illustrated using an applied example on the cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B. The main result is a mathematical solution for the expected time spent in each state in a continuous-time Markov model. It is shown how this solution can account for age-dependent transition rates and discounting of costs and health effects, and how the concept of tunnel states can be used to account for transition rates that depend on the time spent in a state. The applied example shows that the continuous-time model yields more accurate results than the discrete-time model but does not require much computation time and is easily implemented. In conclusion, continuous-time Markov models are a feasible alternative to cohort analysis and can offer several theoretical and practical advantages.

  3. Thermodynamic modeling, energy equipartition, and nonconservation of entropy for discrete-time dynamical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chellaboina Vijaysekhar

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop thermodynamic models for discrete-time large-scale dynamical systems. Specifically, using compartmental dynamical system theory, we develop energy flow models possessing energy conservation, energy equipartition, temperature equipartition, and entropy nonconservation principles for discrete-time, large-scale dynamical systems. Furthermore, we introduce a new and dual notion to entropy; namely, ectropy, as a measure of the tendency of a dynamical system to do useful work and grow more organized, and show that conservation of energy in an isolated thermodynamic system necessarily leads to nonconservation of ectropy and entropy. In addition, using the system ectropy as a Lyapunov function candidate, we show that our discrete-time, large-scale thermodynamic energy flow model has convergent trajectories to Lyapunov stable equilibria determined by the system initial subsystem energies.

  4. Dense time discretization technique for verification of real time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makackas, Dalius; Miseviciene, Regina

    2016-01-01

    Verifying the real-time system there are two different models to control the time: discrete and dense time based models. This paper argues a novel verification technique, which calculates discrete time intervals from dense time in order to create all the system states that can be reached from the initial system state. The technique is designed for real-time systems specified by a piece-linear aggregate approach. Key words: real-time system, dense time, verification, model checking, piece-linear aggregate

  5. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, M.; Ramahatana, F.; Trombe, Pierre-Julien

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting of the solar irradiance is a key feature in order to increase the penetration rate of solar energy into the energy grids. Indeed, the anticipation of the fluctuations of the solar renewables allows a better management of the production means of electricity and a better operation...... sky index show some similarities with that of financial time series. The aim of this paper is to assess the performances of a commonly used combination of two linear models (ARMA and GARCH) in econometrics in order to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance. In addition, a recursive...... regarding the statistical distribution of the error, the reliability of the probabilistic forecasts stands in the same order of magnitude as other works done in the field of solar forecasting....

  6. Discrete time modelization of human pilot behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, D.; Soulatges, D.

    1975-01-01

    This modelization starts from the following hypotheses: pilot's behavior is a time discrete process, he can perform only one task at a time and his operating mode depends on the considered flight subphase. Pilot's behavior was observed using an electro oculometer and a simulator cockpit. A FORTRAN program has been elaborated using two strategies. The first one is a Markovian process in which the successive instrument readings are governed by a matrix of conditional probabilities. In the second one, strategy is an heuristic process and the concepts of mental load and performance are described. The results of the two aspects have been compared with simulation data.

  7. Global Risk Evolution and Diversification: a Copula-DCC-GARCH Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Brutti Righi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we estimate a dynamic portfolio composed by the U.S., German, British, Brazilian, Hong Kong and Australian markets, the period considered started on September 2001 and finished in September 2011. We ran the Copula-DCC-GARCH model on the daily returns conditional covariance matrix. The results allow us to conclude that there were changes in portfolio composition, occasioned by modifications in volatility and dependence between markets. The dynamic approach significantly reduced the portfolio risk if compared to the traditional static approach, especially in turbulent periods. Furthermore, we verified that the estimated copula model outperformed the conventional DCC model for the sample studied.

  8. Modeling and forecasting the volatility of Islamic unit trust in Malaysia using GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Nuraini; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

    2015-10-01

    Due to the tremendous growth of Islamic unit trust in Malaysia since it was first introduced on 12th of January 1993 through the fund named Tabung Ittikal managed by Arab-Malaysian Securities, vast studies have been done to evaluate the performance of Islamic unit trust offered in Malaysia's capital market. Most of the studies found that one of the factors that affect the performance of the fund is the volatility level. Higher volatility produces better performance of the fund. Thus, we believe that a strategy must be set up by the fund managers in order for the fund to perform better. By using a series of net asset value (NAV) data of three different types of fund namely CIMB-IDEGF, CIMB-IBGF and CIMB-ISF from a fund management company named CIMB Principal Asset Management Berhad over a six years period from 1st January 2008 until 31st December 2013, we model and forecast the volatility of these Islamic unit trusts. The study found that the best fitting models for CIMB-IDEGF, CIMB-IBGF and CIMB-ISF are ARCH(4), GARCH(3,3) and GARCH(3,1) respectively. Meanwhile, the fund that is expected to be the least volatile is CIMB-IDEGF and the fund that is expected to be the most volatile is CIMB-IBGF.

  9. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  10. Modelling and real-time simulation of continuous-discrete systems in mechatronics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindow, H. [Rostocker, Magdeburg (Germany)

    1996-12-31

    This work presents a methodology for simulation and modelling of systems with continuous - discrete dynamics. It derives hybrid discrete event models from Lagrange`s equations of motion. This method combines continuous mechanical, electrical and thermodynamical submodels on one hand with discrete event models an the other hand into a hybrid discrete event model. This straight forward software development avoids numeric overhead.

  11. Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga-Haszonits, I.; Kondor, I.

    2007-11-01

    This paper investigates the efficiency of minimum variance portfolio optimization for stock price movements following the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH process proposed by Bollerslev. Simulations show that the quality of portfolio selection can be improved substantially by computing optimal portfolio weights from conditional covariances instead of unconditional ones. Measurement noise can be further reduced by applying some filtering method on the conditional correlation matrix (such as Random Matrix Theory based filtering). As an empirical support for the simulation results, the analysis is also carried out for a time series of S&P500 stock prices.

  12. Forecasting the variance and return of Mexican financial series with symmetric GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Irina VILLALBA PADILLA

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The present research shows the application of the generalized autoregresive conditional heteroskedasticity models (GARCH in order to forecast the variance and return of the IPC, the EMBI, the weighted-average government funding rate, the fix exchange rate and the Mexican oil reference, as important tools for investment decisions. Forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample are performed. The covered period involves from 2005 to 2011.

  13. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  14. Time Discretization Techniques

    KAUST Repository

    Gottlieb, S.; Ketcheson, David I.

    2016-01-01

    The time discretization of hyperbolic partial differential equations is typically the evolution of a system of ordinary differential equations obtained by spatial discretization of the original problem. Methods for this time evolution include

  15. Discrete-time control system design with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rabbath, C A

    2014-01-01

    This book presents practical techniques of discrete-time control system design. In general, the design techniques lead to low-order dynamic compensators that ensure satisfactory closed-loop performance for a wide range of sampling rates. The theory is given in the form of theorems, lemmas, and propositions. The design of the control systems is presented as step-by-step procedures and algorithms. The proposed feedback control schemes are applied to well-known dynamic system models. This book also discusses: Closed-loop performance of generic models of mobile robot and airborne pursuer dynamic systems under discrete-time feedback control with limited computing capabilities Concepts of discrete-time models and sampled-data models of continuous-time systems, for both single- and dual-rate operation Local versus global digital redesign Optimal, closed-loop digital redesign methods Plant input mapping design Generalized holds and samplers for use in feedback control loops, Numerical simulation of fixed-point arithm...

  16. Discrete-Time Nonlinear Control of VSC-HVDC System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TianTian Qian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because VSC-HVDC is a kind of strong nonlinear, coupling, and multi-input multioutput (MIMO system, its control problem is always attracting much attention from scholars. And a lot of papers have done research on its control strategy in the continuous-time domain. But the control system is implemented through the computer discrete sampling in practical engineering. It is necessary to study the mathematical model and control algorithm in the discrete-time domain. The discrete mathematical model based on output feedback linearization and discrete sliding mode control algorithm is proposed in this paper. And to ensure the effectiveness of the control system in the quasi sliding mode state, the fast output sampling method is used in the output feedback. The results from simulation experiment in MATLAB/SIMULINK prove that the proposed discrete control algorithm can make the VSC-HVDC system have good static, dynamic, and robust characteristics in discrete-time domain.

  17. Importance of the macroeconomic variables for variance prediction: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Hou, Ai Jun; Javed, Farrukh

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long-term compone......This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long...

  18. Process algebra with timing : real time and discrete time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baeten, J.C.M.; Middelburg, C.A.; Bergstra, J.A.; Ponse, A.J.; Smolka, S.A.

    2001-01-01

    We present real time and discrete time versions of ACP with absolute timing and relative timing. The starting-point is a new real time version with absolute timing, called ACPsat, featuring urgent actions and a delay operator. The discrete time versions are conservative extensions of the discrete

  19. Process algebra with timing: Real time and discrete time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baeten, J.C.M.; Middelburg, C.A.

    1999-01-01

    We present real time and discrete time versions of ACP with absolute timing and relative timing. The startingpoint is a new real time version with absolute timing, called ACPsat , featuring urgent actions and a delay operator. The discrete time versions are conservative extensions of the discrete

  20. Prediction of selected Indian stock using a partitioning–interpolation based ARIMA–GARCH model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Narendra Babu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate long-term prediction of time series data (TSD is a very useful research challenge in diversified fields. As financial TSD are highly volatile, multi-step prediction of financial TSD is a major research problem in TSD mining. The two challenges encountered are, maintaining high prediction accuracy and preserving the data trend across the forecast horizon. The linear traditional models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH preserve data trend to some extent, at the cost of prediction accuracy. Non-linear models like ANN maintain prediction accuracy by sacrificing data trend. In this paper, a linear hybrid model, which maintains prediction accuracy while preserving data trend, is proposed. A quantitative reasoning analysis justifying the accuracy of proposed model is also presented. A moving-average (MA filter based pre-processing, partitioning and interpolation (PI technique are incorporated by the proposed model. Some existing models and the proposed model are applied on selected NSE India stock market data. Performance results show that for multi-step ahead prediction, the proposed model outperforms the others in terms of both prediction accuracy and preserving data trend.

  1. A Model of Discrete-Continuum Time for a Simple Physical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karimov A. R.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Proceeding from the assumption that the time flow of an individual object is a real physical value, in the framework of a physical kinetics approach we propose an analogy between time and temperature. The use of such an analogy makes it possible to work out a discrete-continuum model of time for a simple physical system. The possible physical properties of time for the single object and time for the whole system are discussed.

  2. Semiclassical expanding discrete space-times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cobb, W.K.; Smalley, L.L.

    1981-01-01

    Given the close ties between general relativity and geometry one might reasonably expect that quantum effects associated with gravitation might also be tied to the geometry of space-time, namely, to some sort of discreteness in space-time itself. In particular it is supposed that space-time consists of a discrete lattice of points rather than the usual continuum. Since astronomical evidence seems to suggest that the universe is expanding, the lattice must also expand. Some of the implications of such a model are that the proton should presently be stable, and the universe should be closed although the mechanism for closure is quantum mechanical. (author)

  3. Comprehensive synchronous reference frame discrete-time modelling of a grid-connected PV for fast DC-side voltage control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, P.M.; Barbosa, P.G.; Duarte, J.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel comprehensive discrete-time model of a three-phase single stage grid-connected photovoltaic generation system. The detailed model is carried out on synchronous reference frame. It is shown that both converter's AC and DC-side discrete time model differs from the

  4. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  5. Stability Analysis and H∞ Model Reduction for Switched Discrete-Time Time-Delay Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Fan Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of exponential stability and H∞ model reduction of a class of switched discrete-time systems with state time-varying delay. Some subsystems can be unstable. Based on the average dwell time technique and Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional (LKF approach, sufficient conditions for exponential stability with H∞ performance of such systems are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. For the high-order systems, sufficient conditions for the existence of reduced-order model are derived in terms of LMIs. Moreover, the error system is guaranteed to be exponentially stable and an H∞ error performance is guaranteed. Numerical examples are also given to demonstrate the effectiveness and reduced conservatism of the obtained results.

  6. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  7. Single-crossover recombination in discrete time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wangenheim, Ute; Baake, Ellen; Baake, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Modelling the process of recombination leads to a large coupled nonlinear dynamical system. Here, we consider a particular case of recombination in discrete time, allowing only for single crossovers. While the analogous dynamics in continuous time admits a closed solution (Baake and Baake in Can J Math 55:3-41, 2003), this no longer works for discrete time. A more general model (i.e. without the restriction to single crossovers) has been studied before (Bennett in Ann Hum Genet 18:311-317, 1954; Dawson in Theor Popul Biol 58:1-20, 2000; Linear Algebra Appl 348:115-137, 2002) and was solved algorithmically by means of Haldane linearisation. Using the special formalism introduced by Baake and Baake (Can J Math 55:3-41, 2003), we obtain further insight into the single-crossover dynamics and the particular difficulties that arise in discrete time. We then transform the equations to a solvable system in a two-step procedure: linearisation followed by diagonalisation. Still, the coefficients of the second step must be determined in a recursive manner, but once this is done for a given system, they allow for an explicit solution valid for all times.

  8. Bifurcations in a discrete time model composed of Beverton-Holt function and Ricker function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jin; Li, Bingtuan; Barnard, Michael R

    2015-05-01

    We provide rigorous analysis for a discrete-time model composed of the Ricker function and Beverton-Holt function. This model was proposed by Lewis and Li [Bull. Math. Biol. 74 (2012) 2383-2402] in the study of a population in which reproduction occurs at a discrete instant of time whereas death and competition take place continuously during the season. We show analytically that there exists a period-doubling bifurcation curve in the model. The bifurcation curve divides the parameter space into the region of stability and the region of instability. We demonstrate through numerical bifurcation diagrams that the regions of periodic cycles are intermixed with the regions of chaos. We also study the global stability of the model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Discrete time duration models with group-level heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Anders; Honoré, Bo; Hu, Loujia

    2007-01-01

    Dynamic discrete choice panel data models have received a great deal of attention. In those models, the dynamics is usually handled by including the lagged outcome as an explanatory variable. In this paper we consider an alternative model in which the dynamics is handled by using the duration...

  10. Day of the week effect on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange: A non-linear GARCH analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Batsirai Winmore Mazviona

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study analysed the day of the week effect on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE by taking into account volatility of returns. The purpose of the study was to establish whether daily mean returns across a trading week differ from each other. We employ a non-linear approach in modelling the day of the week effects. In particular, we used the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH and the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH models. We used industrial and mining daily closing indices data from 19 February 2009 to 31 December 2013. The data was retrieved from the ZSE website. EViews 7 software was utilised for data analysis. In order to test the null hypothesis of equality of daily mean returns, a Wald test was carried out. The Wald F-statistic rejected the null hypothesis of equality of mean returns for the industrial index. We found the traditional negative Monday and positive Friday effect for the industrial index in GARCH (1,1 and EGARCH (1,1 models. The GARCH (1,1 detected a negative Friday effect and the EGARCH (1,1 detected negative Wednesday effect for the mining index. We found evidence of model dependency for the mining index results.

  11. MEMBANDINGKAN RISIKO SISTEMATIS MENGGUNAKAN CAPM-GARCH DAN CAPM-EGARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIKY AMELIAH

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In making stock investments, investors usually pay attention to the rate of return and risk of the stock investment. To calculate risk using capital asset pricing model (CAPM, GARCH, and EGARCH. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of daily closing price (daily close price, JII price index and monthly SBI rate. All data were processed using matlab 13. The research sample consisted of 6 flagship shares for the period of 2013-2017 ie ADHI, SMGR, UNTR, BSDE, ICBP, KLBF. The conclusion of the research is the beta of each stock including aggressive beta because beta greater than 1. For return CAPM GARACH and CAPM EGARCH obtained Kalbe Farma stock (KLBF has small beta and big return means GARCH and EGARCH model equally Can predict that stock KLBF shares the least risk and large returns among the six stocks.

  12. Time Evolution Of The Wigner Function In Discrete Quantum Phase Space For A Soluble Quasi-spin Model

    CERN Document Server

    Galetti, D

    2000-01-01

    Summary: The discrete phase space approach to quantum mechanics of degrees of freedom without classical counterparts is applied to the many-fermions/quasi-spin Lipkin model. The Wigner function is written for some chosen states associated to discrete angle and angular momentum variables, and the time evolution is numerically calculated using the discrete von Neumann-Liouville equation. Direct evidences in the time evolution of the Wigner function are extracted that identify a tunnelling effect. A connection with an $SU(2)$-based semiclassical continuous approach to the Lipkin model is also presented.

  13. Reliable gain-scheduled control of discrete-time systems and its application to CSTR model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakthivel, R.; Selvi, S.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Shi, Y.

    2016-10-01

    This paper is focused on reliable gain-scheduled controller design for a class of discrete-time systems with randomly occurring nonlinearities and actuator fault. Further, the nonlinearity in the system model is assumed to occur randomly according to a Bernoulli distribution with measurable time-varying probability in real time. The main purpose of this paper is to design a gain-scheduled controller by implementing a probability-dependent Lyapunov function and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach such that the closed-loop discrete-time system is stochastically stable for all admissible randomly occurring nonlinearities. The existence conditions for the reliable controller is formulated in terms of LMI constraints. Finally, the proposed reliable gain-scheduled control scheme is applied on continuously stirred tank reactor model to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed design technique.

  14. Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Bui Quang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

  15. Disease-induced mortality in density-dependent discrete-time S-I-S epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, John E; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2008-12-01

    The dynamics of simple discrete-time epidemic models without disease-induced mortality are typically characterized by global transcritical bifurcation. We prove that in corresponding models with disease-induced mortality a tiny number of infectious individuals can drive an otherwise persistent population to extinction. Our model with disease-induced mortality supports multiple attractors. In addition, we use a Ricker recruitment function in an SIS model and obtained a three component discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) cycle attractor coexisting with a fixed point attractor. The basin boundaries of the coexisting attractors are fractal in nature, and the example exhibits sensitive dependence of the long-term disease dynamics on initial conditions. Furthermore, we show that in contrast to corresponding models without disease-induced mortality, the disease-free state dynamics do not drive the disease dynamics.

  16. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  17. Discrete random walk models for space-time fractional diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenflo, Rudolf; Mainardi, Francesco; Moretti, Daniele; Pagnini, Gianni; Paradisi, Paolo

    2002-01-01

    A physical-mathematical approach to anomalous diffusion may be based on generalized diffusion equations (containing derivatives of fractional order in space or/and time) and related random walk models. By space-time fractional diffusion equation we mean an evolution equation obtained from the standard linear diffusion equation by replacing the second-order space derivative with a Riesz-Feller derivative of order α is part of (0,2] and skewness θ (moduleθ≤{α,2-α}), and the first-order time derivative with a Caputo derivative of order β is part of (0,1]. Such evolution equation implies for the flux a fractional Fick's law which accounts for spatial and temporal non-locality. The fundamental solution (for the Cauchy problem) of the fractional diffusion equation can be interpreted as a probability density evolving in time of a peculiar self-similar stochastic process that we view as a generalized diffusion process. By adopting appropriate finite-difference schemes of solution, we generate models of random walk discrete in space and time suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation

  18. Principles of discrete time mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Jaroszkiewicz, George

    2014-01-01

    Could time be discrete on some unimaginably small scale? Exploring the idea in depth, this unique introduction to discrete time mechanics systematically builds the theory up from scratch, beginning with the historical, physical and mathematical background to the chronon hypothesis. Covering classical and quantum discrete time mechanics, this book presents all the tools needed to formulate and develop applications of discrete time mechanics in a number of areas, including spreadsheet mechanics, classical and quantum register mechanics, and classical and quantum mechanics and field theories. A consistent emphasis on contextuality and the observer-system relationship is maintained throughout.

  19. Discrete modeling considerations in multiphase fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ransom, V.H.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1988-01-01

    The modeling of multiphase flows play a fundamental role in light water reactor safety. The main ingredients in our discrete modeling Weltanschauung are the following considerations: (1) Any physical model must be cast into discrete form for a digital computer. (2) The usual approach of formulating models in differential form and then discretizing them is potentially hazardous. It may be preferable to formulate the model in discrete terms from the outset. (3) Computer time and storage constraints limit the resolution that can be employed in practical calculations. These limits effectively define the physical phenomena, length scales, and time scales which cannot be directly represented in the calculation and therefore must be modeled. This information should be injected into the model formulation process at an early stage. (4) Practical resolution limits are generally so coarse that traditional convergence and truncation-error analyses become irrelevant. (5) A discrete model constitutes a reduced description of a physical system, from which fine-scale details are eliminated. This elimination creates a statistical closure problem. Methods from statistical physics may therefore be useful in the formulation of discrete models. In the present paper we elaborate on these themes and illustrate them with simple examples. 48 refs

  20. Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theodorou, Petros; Karyampas, Dimitrios

    2008-01-01

    Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact. (author)

  1. Discrete-time sliding mode control for MR vehicle suspension system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, J W; Choi, S B [Smart Structures and Systems Laboratory, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 402-751 (Korea, Republic of); Wereley, N M [Smart Structures Laboratory, Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)], E-mail: seungbok@inha.ac.kr

    2009-02-01

    This paper presents control performance of a full-vehicle suspension system featuring magnetorheological (MR) dampers via a discrete-time sliding mode control algorithm (DSMC). A cylindrical MR damper is designed by incorporating Bingham model of the MR fluid and the field-dependent damping characteristics of the MR damper are evaluated. A full-vehicle suspension model installed with independent four MR dampers is constructed and the governing equations which include vertical, pitch and roll motion are derived. A discrete-time control model is established with considering system uncertainties and a discrete-time sliding mode controller which has inherent robustness to model uncertainty and external disturbance is formulated. Vibration control performances under bump excitation are evaluated and presented.

  2. Discrete-time sliding mode control for MR vehicle suspension system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, J W; Choi, S B; Wereley, N M

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents control performance of a full-vehicle suspension system featuring magnetorheological (MR) dampers via a discrete-time sliding mode control algorithm (DSMC). A cylindrical MR damper is designed by incorporating Bingham model of the MR fluid and the field-dependent damping characteristics of the MR damper are evaluated. A full-vehicle suspension model installed with independent four MR dampers is constructed and the governing equations which include vertical, pitch and roll motion are derived. A discrete-time control model is established with considering system uncertainties and a discrete-time sliding mode controller which has inherent robustness to model uncertainty and external disturbance is formulated. Vibration control performances under bump excitation are evaluated and presented.

  3. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  4. Discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) susceptible infected susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lismawati, Eka; Respatiwulan; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    The SIS epidemic model describes the pattern of disease spread with characteristics that recovered individuals can be infected more than once. The number of susceptible and infected individuals every time follows the discrete time Markov process. It can be represented by the discrete time Markov chains (DTMC) SIS. The DTMC SIS epidemic model can be developed for two pathogens in two patches. The aims of this paper are to reconstruct and to apply the DTMC SIS epidemic model with two pathogens in two patches. The model was presented as transition probabilities. The application of the model obtain that the number of susceptible individuals decreases while the number of infected individuals increases for each pathogen in each patch.

  5. Simulating continuous-time Hamiltonian dynamics by way of a discrete-time quantum walk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitz, A.T.; Schwalm, W.A.

    2016-01-01

    Much effort has been made to connect the continuous-time and discrete-time quantum walks. We present a method for making that connection for a general graph Hamiltonian on a bigraph. Furthermore, such a scheme may be adapted for simulating discretized quantum models on a quantum computer. A coin operator is found for the discrete-time quantum walk which exhibits the same dynamics as the continuous-time evolution. Given the spectral decomposition of the graph Hamiltonian and certain restrictions, the discrete-time evolution is solved for explicitly and understood at or near important values of the parameters. Finally, this scheme is connected to past results for the 1D chain. - Highlights: • A discrete-time quantum walk is purposed which approximates a continuous-time quantum walk. • The purposed quantum walk could be used to simulate Hamiltonian dynamics on a quantum computer. • Given the spectra decomposition of the Hamiltonian, the quantum walk is solved explicitly. • The method is demonstrated and connected to previous work done on the 1D chain.

  6. Modeling commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisham, Azie Farhani Badrol; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    In order for Islamic finance to remain competitive as the conventional, there needs a new development of Islamic compliance product such as Islamic derivative that can be used to manage the risk. However, under syariah principles and regulations, all financial instruments must not be conflicting with five syariah elements which are riba (interest paid), rishwah (corruption), gharar (uncertainty or unnecessary risk), maysir (speculation or gambling) and jahl (taking advantage of the counterparty's ignorance). This study has proposed a traditional Islamic contract namely salam that can be built as an Islamic derivative product. Although a lot of studies has been done on discussing and proposing the implementation of salam contract as the Islamic product however they are more into qualitative and law issues. Since there is lack of quantitative study of salam contract being developed, this study introduces mathematical models that can value the appropriate salam price for a commodity salam contract between two parties. In modeling the commodity salam contract, this study has modified the existing conventional derivative model and come out with some adjustments to comply with syariah rules and regulations. The cost of carry model has been chosen as the foundation to develop the commodity salam model between two parties for discrete and continuous time series. However, the conventional time value of money results from the concept of interest that is prohibited in Islam. Therefore, this study has adopted the idea of Islamic time value of money which is known as the positive time preference, in modeling the commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series.

  7. Models for discrete-time self-similar vector processes with application to network traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seungsin; Rao, Raghuveer M.; Narasimha, Rajesh

    2003-07-01

    The paper defines self-similarity for vector processes by employing the discrete-time continuous-dilation operation which has successfully been used previously by the authors to define 1-D discrete-time stochastic self-similar processes. To define self-similarity of vector processes, it is required to consider the cross-correlation functions between different 1-D processes as well as the autocorrelation function of each constituent 1-D process in it. System models to synthesize self-similar vector processes are constructed based on the definition. With these systems, it is possible to generate self-similar vector processes from white noise inputs. An important aspect of the proposed models is that they can be used to synthesize various types of self-similar vector processes by choosing proper parameters. Additionally, the paper presents evidence of vector self-similarity in two-channel wireless LAN data and applies the aforementioned systems to simulate the corresponding network traffic traces.

  8. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that both distributions may forecast quite well with a slight advantage to the. GARCH(1 ... Financial time series tend to exhibit certain characteristic features such as volatility ... Heteroscedasticity-adjusted MAE to evaluate the forecasts. Chuanga et .... the Student's-t distribution or the GED with the following probability density.

  9. PERHITUNGAN NILAI BETA DARI BEBERAPA SAHAM UNGGULAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NI KADEK PUSPITAYANTI

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of investment in the capital market is to acquire dividends and capital gain. The fact proves that the advantage of investation risky assets is uncertain . This is because of the difficulty in analyzing and predicting Return and stock losses due to factors that affect the movement of the stock price , such as economic factors , political , social , and security. The model can be used by investors in predicting stock returns expected that Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity (GARCH. In this study calculations beta value of some leading stocks in Indonesia by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity (GARCH are presented . The data used this search is secondary data covering daily data sampled 5 shares of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk , PT Indosat Tbk , PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk , PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk , PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk. From the results described fifth beta value of these shares using the method GARCH beta greater than the market in the period from 23 September 2013 until 24 September 2014.

  10. Discrete-time moment closure models for epidemic spreading in populations of interacting individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasca, Mattia; Sharkey, Kieran J

    2016-06-21

    Understanding the dynamics of spread of infectious diseases between individuals is essential for forecasting the evolution of an epidemic outbreak or for defining intervention policies. The problem is addressed by many approaches including stochastic and deterministic models formulated at diverse scales (individuals, populations) and different levels of detail. Here we consider discrete-time SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) dynamics propagated on contact networks. We derive a novel set of 'discrete-time moment equations' for the probability of the system states at the level of individual nodes and pairs of nodes. These equations form a set which we close by introducing appropriate approximations of the joint probabilities appearing in them. For the example case of SIR processes, we formulate two types of model, one assuming statistical independence at the level of individuals and one at the level of pairs. From the pair-based model we then derive a model at the level of the population which captures the behavior of epidemics on homogeneous random networks. With respect to their continuous-time counterparts, the models include a larger number of possible transitions from one state to another and joint probabilities with a larger number of individuals. The approach is validated through numerical simulation over different network topologies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Robust self-triggered model predictive control for constrained discrete-time LTI systems based on homothetic tubes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aydiner, E.; Brunner, F.D.; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Allgower, F.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present a robust self-triggered model predictive control (MPC) scheme for discrete-time linear time-invariant systems subject to input and state constraints and additive disturbances. In self-triggered model predictive control, at every sampling instant an optimization problem based

  12. A discrete time-varying internal model-based approach for high precision tracking of a multi-axis servo gantry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Yan, Peng; Jiang, Huan; Ye, Peiqing

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we consider the discrete time-varying internal model-based control design for high precision tracking of complicated reference trajectories generated by time-varying systems. Based on a novel parallel time-varying internal model structure, asymptotic tracking conditions for the design of internal model units are developed, and a low order robust time-varying stabilizer is further synthesized. In a discrete time setting, the high precision tracking control architecture is deployed on a Voice Coil Motor (VCM) actuated servo gantry system, where numerical simulations and real time experimental results are provided, achieving the tracking errors around 3.5‰ for frequency-varying signals. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciortea, E. M.

    2015-11-01

    The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

  14. Mathematical aspects of the discrete space-time hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sardanashvili, G.A.

    1979-01-01

    A hypothesis of a microcosm space discreteness is considered from the theoretical-mathematical point of view. The type of topological spaces, which formalizes representations on the discrete space-time, is determined. It is explained, how these spaces arise in physical models. The physical task, in which the discrete space could arise as a version of its solution, is considered. It is shown that the discrete structure of space can arise with a certain interaction type in the system, for example, with its considerable self-shielding, which can take place, in particular, in the particles or in the cosmological and astrophysical singularities

  15. Memorized discrete systems and time-delay

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Albert C J

    2017-01-01

    This book examines discrete dynamical systems with memory—nonlinear systems that exist extensively in biological organisms and financial and economic organizations, and time-delay systems that can be discretized into the memorized, discrete dynamical systems. It book further discusses stability and bifurcations of time-delay dynamical systems that can be investigated through memorized dynamical systems as well as bifurcations of memorized nonlinear dynamical systems, discretization methods of time-delay systems, and periodic motions to chaos in nonlinear time-delay systems. The book helps readers find analytical solutions of MDS, change traditional perturbation analysis in time-delay systems, detect motion complexity and singularity in MDS; and determine stability, bifurcation, and chaos in any time-delay system.

  16. Discrete time motion model for guiding people in urban areas using multiple robots

    OpenAIRE

    Garrell Zulueta, Anais; Sanfeliu Cortés, Alberto; Moreno-Noguer, Francesc

    2009-01-01

    We present a new model for people guidance in urban settings using several mobile robots, that overcomes the limitations of existing approaches, which are either tailored to tightly bounded environments, or based on unrealistic human behaviors. Although the robots motion is controlled by means of a standard particle filter formulation, the novelty of our approach resides in how the environment and human and robot motions are modeled. In particular we define a “Discrete-Time-Motion” model, whi...

  17. Period-doubling bifurcation and chaos control in a discrete-time mosquito model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qamar Din

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the study of some qualitative properties of a discrete-time mosquito Model. It is shown that there exists period-doubling bifurcation for wide range of bifurcation parameter for the unique positive steady-state of given system. In order to control the bifurcation we introduced a feedback strategy. For further confirmation of complexity and chaotic behavior largest Lyapunov exponents are plotted.

  18. Time Discretization Techniques

    KAUST Repository

    Gottlieb, S.

    2016-10-12

    The time discretization of hyperbolic partial differential equations is typically the evolution of a system of ordinary differential equations obtained by spatial discretization of the original problem. Methods for this time evolution include multistep, multistage, or multiderivative methods, as well as a combination of these approaches. The time step constraint is mainly a result of the absolute stability requirement, as well as additional conditions that mimic physical properties of the solution, such as positivity or total variation stability. These conditions may be required for stability when the solution develops shocks or sharp gradients. This chapter contains a review of some of the methods historically used for the evolution of hyperbolic PDEs, as well as cutting edge methods that are now commonly used.

  19. Hopf Bifurcation in a Cobweb Model with Discrete Time Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Gori

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a cobweb model with discrete time delays that characterise the length of production cycle. We assume a market comprised of homogeneous producers that operate as adapters by taking the (expected profit-maximising quantity as a target to adjust production and consumers with a marginal willingness to pay captured by an isoelastic demand. The dynamics of the economy is characterised by a one-dimensional delay differential equation. In this context, we show that (1 if the elasticity of market demand is sufficiently high, the steady-state equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable and (2 if the elasticity of market demand is sufficiently low, quasiperiodic oscillations emerge when the time lag (that represents the length of production cycle is high enough.

  20. Continuous and Discrete-Time Optimal Controls for an Isolated Signalized Intersection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiyuan Tan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A classical control problem for an isolated oversaturated intersection is revisited with a focus on the optimal control policy to minimize total delay. The difference and connection between existing continuous-time planning models and recently proposed discrete-time planning models are studied. A gradient descent algorithm is proposed to convert the optimal control plan of the continuous-time model to the plan of the discrete-time model in many cases. Analytic proof and numerical tests for the algorithm are also presented. The findings shed light on the links between two kinds of models.

  1. 12 May 1979: 'Atom Disaster' in Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerwin, R.

    1979-01-01

    'Die Zeit', in its number 25 (15 June 79), dealt with the mass media's reporting on a fire in a laboratory of the Technical University of Munich in Garching (District Munich) of 12 May 79. Under the headline 'After the fire in Garching - sensations at any price. The fire provoked the journalists' imagination', Robert Gerwin, the press agent of the Max Planck Society, dealt with the question of whether or not the TV and newspapers' reports on this fire were extremely exaggerating, suggesting the readers a sensation which was no sensation at all. The press section of the Max Planck Society kindly gave its permission to print this article in 'brandschutz'. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Discrete-time Calogero-Moser system and Lagrangian 1-form structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo-Kong, Sikarin; Lobb, Sarah; Nijhoff, Frank

    2011-01-01

    We study the Lagrange formalism of the (rational) Calogero-Moser (CM) system, both in discrete time and continuous time, as a first example of a Lagrangian 1-form structure in the sense of the recent paper (Lobb and Nijhoff 2009 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor.42 454013). The discrete-time model of the CM system was established some time ago arising as a pole reduction of a semi-discrete version of the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili (KP) equation, and was shown to lead to an exactly integrable correspondence (multivalued map). In this paper, we present the full KP solution based on the commutativity of the discrete-time flows in the two discrete KP variables. The compatibility of the corresponding Lax matrices is shown to lead directly to the relevant closure relation on the level of the Lagrangians. Performing successive continuum limits on both the level of the KP equation and the level of the CM system, we establish the proper Lagrangian 1-form structure for the continuum case of the CM model. We use the example of the three-particle case to elucidate the implementation of the novel least-action principle, which was presented in Lobb and Nijhoff (2009), for the simpler case of Lagrangian 1-forms. (paper)

  3. The effects of host-feeding on stability of discrete-time host-parasitoid population dynamic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerick, Brooks; Singh, Abhyudai

    2016-02-01

    Discrete-time models are the traditional approach for capturing population dynamics of a host-parasitoid system. Recent work has introduced a semi-discrete framework for obtaining model update functions that connect host-parasitoid population levels from year-to-year. In particular, this framework uses differential equations to describe the host-parasitoid interaction during the time of year when they come in contact, allowing specific behaviors to be mechanistically incorporated. We use the semi-discrete approach to study the effects of host-feeding, which occurs when a parasitoid consumes a potential host larva without ovipositing. We find that host-feeding by itself cannot stabilize the system, and both populations exhibit behavior similar to the Nicholson-Bailey model. However, when combined with stabilizing mechanisms such as density-dependent host mortality, host-feeding contracts the region of parameter space that allows for a stable host-parasitoid equilibrium. In contrast, when combined with a density-dependent parasitoid attack rate, host-feeding expands the non-zero equilibrium stability region. Our results show that host-feeding causes inefficiency in the parasitoid population, which yields a higher population of hosts per generation. This suggests that host-feeding may have limited long-term impact in terms of suppressing host levels for biological control applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Soundness of Timed-Arc Workflow Nets in Discrete and Continuous-Time Semantics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mateo, Jose Antonio; Srba, Jiri; Sørensen, Mathias Grund

    2015-01-01

    Analysis of workflow processes with quantitative aspectslike timing is of interest in numerous time-critical applications. We suggest a workflow model based on timed-arc Petri nets and studythe foundational problems of soundness and strong (time-bounded) soundness.We first consider the discrete-t...

  5. Stochastic ℋ∞ Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Systems with Packet Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingqi Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the stochastic finite-time stabilization and ℋ∞ control problem for one family of linear discrete-time systems over networks with packet loss, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, the dynamic model description studied is given, which, if the packet dropout is assumed to be a discrete-time homogenous Markov process, the class of discrete-time linear systems with packet loss can be regarded as Markovian jump systems. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions are established for the resulting closed-loop discrete-time system with Markovian jumps to be stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness and then state feedback controllers are designed to guarantee stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time stabilization of the class of stochastic systems. The stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the robust stochastic stabilization of the class of linear systems with packet loss. Finally, simulation examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the developed scheme.

  6. Time-Discrete Higher-Order ALE Formulations: Stability

    KAUST Repository

    Bonito, Andrea; Kyza, Irene; Nochetto, Ricardo H.

    2013-01-01

    on the stability of the PDE but may influence that of a discrete scheme. We examine this critical issue for higher-order time stepping without space discretization. We propose time-discrete discontinuous Galerkin (dG) numerical schemes of any order for a time

  7. Forecasting of exported volume for brazilian fruits by time series analysis: an arima/garch approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdinardo Moreira Barreto de Oliveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to offer econometric forecasting models to the Brazilian exported volume fruits, with a view to assisting the planning and production control, also motivated by the existence of a few published papers dealing with this issue. In this sense, it was used the ARIMA/GARCH models, considering, likewise, the occurrence of a multiplicative stochastic seasonality in these series. They were collected 300 observations of exported net weight (kg between Jan/1989 and Dec/2013 of the following fruits: pineapple, banana, orange, lemon, apple, papaya, mango, watermelon, melon and grape, which selection criteria was its importance in the exported basket fruit, because they represented 97% of total received dollars, and 99% of total volume sold in 2010, of a population about 28 kinds of exported fruits. The results showed that it was not only observed the existence of a 12 month multiplicative seasonality in banana and mango. On the other hand, they were identified two fruits groups: (1 those which are continuously exported, and (2 those which have export peaks. On the quality of the models, they were considered satisfactory for six of the ten fruits analyzed. On the volatility, it was seen a high persistence in banana and papaya series, pointing to the existence of a structural break in time series, which could be linked to the economic crises happened in the last 17 years.

  8. Discrete-Time Domain Modelling of Voltage Source Inverters in Standalone Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federico, de Bosio; de Sousa Ribeiro, Luiz Antonio; Freijedo Fernandez, Francisco Daniel

    2017-01-01

    modelling of the LC plant with consideration of delay and sample-and-hold effects on the state feedback cross-coupling decoupling is derived. From this plant formulation, current controllers with wide bandwidth and good relative stability properties are developed. Two controllers based on lead compensation......The decoupling of the capacitor voltage and inductor current has been shown to improve significantly the dynamic performance of voltage source inverters in standalone applications. However, the computation and PWM delays still limit the achievable bandwidth. In this paper a discrete-time domain...

  9. Construction of Discrete Time Shadow Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogala, Tomasz; Stettner, Lukasz

    2015-01-01

    In the paper expected utility from consumption over finite time horizon for discrete time markets with bid and ask prices and strictly concave utility function is considered. The notion of weak shadow price, i.e. an illiquid price, depending on the portfolio, under which the model without bid and ask price is equivalent to the model with bid and ask price is introduced. Existence and the form of weak shadow price is shown. Using weak shadow price usual (called in the paper strong) shadow price is then constructed

  10. Clustering of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Urso, Pierpaolo; Cappelli, Carmela; Di Lallo, Dario; Massari, Riccardo

    2013-05-01

    This paper addresses the topic of classifying financial time series in a fuzzy framework proposing two fuzzy clustering models both based on GARCH models. In general clustering of financial time series, due to their peculiar features, needs the definition of suitable distance measures. At this aim, the first fuzzy clustering model exploits the autoregressive representation of GARCH models and employs, in the framework of a partitioning around medoids algorithm, the classical autoregressive metric. The second fuzzy clustering model, also based on partitioning around medoids algorithm, uses the Caiado distance, a Mahalanobis-like distance, based on estimated GARCH parameters and covariances that takes into account the information about the volatility structure of time series. In order to illustrate the merits of the proposed fuzzy approaches an application to the problem of classifying 29 time series of Euro exchange rates against international currencies is presented and discussed, also comparing the fuzzy models with their crisp version.

  11. Galerkin v. discrete-optimal projection in nonlinear model reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barone, Matthew Franklin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Antil, Harbir [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Discrete-optimal model-reduction techniques such as the Gauss{Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) method have shown promise, as they have generated stable, accurate solutions for large-scale turbulent, compressible ow problems where standard Galerkin techniques have failed. However, there has been limited comparative analysis of the two approaches. This is due in part to difficulties arising from the fact that Galerkin techniques perform projection at the time-continuous level, while discrete-optimal techniques do so at the time-discrete level. This work provides a detailed theoretical and experimental comparison of the two techniques for two common classes of time integrators: linear multistep schemes and Runge{Kutta schemes. We present a number of new ndings, including conditions under which the discrete-optimal ROM has a time-continuous representation, conditions under which the two techniques are equivalent, and time-discrete error bounds for the two approaches. Perhaps most surprisingly, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that decreasing the time step does not necessarily decrease the error for the discrete-optimal ROM; instead, the time step should be `matched' to the spectral content of the reduced basis. In numerical experiments carried out on a turbulent compressible- ow problem with over one million unknowns, we show that increasing the time step to an intermediate value decreases both the error and the simulation time of the discrete-optimal reduced-order model by an order of magnitude.

  12. Parisian ruin for the dual risk process in discrete-time

    OpenAIRE

    Palmowski, Zbigniew; Ramsden, Lewis; Papaioannou, Apostolos D.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we consider the Parisian ruin probabilities for the dual risk model in a discrete-time setting. By exploiting the strong Markov property of the risk process we derive a recursive expression for the fnite-time Parisian ruin probability, in terms of classic discrete-time dual ruin probabilities. Moreover, we obtain an explicit expression for the corresponding infnite-time Parisian ruin probability as a limiting case. In order to obtain more analytic results, we employ a conditioni...

  13. A discrete-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    Dependability tools are becoming an indispensable tool for modeling and analyzing (critical) systems. However the growing complexity of such systems calls for increasing sophistication of these tools. Dependability tools need to not only capture the complex dynamic behavior of the system components, but they must be also easy to use, intuitive, and computationally efficient. In general, current tools have a number of shortcomings including lack of modeling power, incapacity to efficiently handle general component failure distributions, and ineffectiveness in solving large models that exhibit complex dependencies between their components. We propose a novel reliability modeling and analysis framework based on the Bayesian network (BN) formalism. The overall approach is to investigate timed Bayesian networks and to find a suitable reliability framework for dynamic systems. We have applied our methodology to two example systems and preliminary results are promising. We have defined a discrete-time BN reliability formalism and demonstrated its capabilities from a modeling and analysis point of view. This research shows that a BN based reliability formalism is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, being based on the BN formalism, the framework is easy to use and intuitive for non-experts, and provides a basis for more advanced and useful analyses such as system diagnosis

  14. Discrete Feature Model (DFM) User Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geier, Joel (Clearwater Hardrock Consulting, Corvallis, OR (United States))

    2008-06-15

    This manual describes the Discrete-Feature Model (DFM) software package for modelling groundwater flow and solute transport in networks of discrete features. A discrete-feature conceptual model represents fractures and other water-conducting features around a repository as discrete conductors surrounded by a rock matrix which is usually treated as impermeable. This approximation may be valid for crystalline rocks such as granite or basalt, which have very low permeability if macroscopic fractures are excluded. A discrete feature is any entity that can conduct water and permit solute transport through bedrock, and can be reasonably represented as a piecewise-planar conductor. Examples of such entities may include individual natural fractures (joints or faults), fracture zones, and disturbed-zone features around tunnels (e.g. blasting-induced fractures or stress-concentration induced 'onion skin' fractures around underground openings). In a more abstract sense, the effectively discontinuous nature of pathways through fractured crystalline bedrock may be idealized as discrete, equivalent transmissive features that reproduce large-scale observations, even if the details of connective paths (and unconnected domains) are not precisely known. A discrete-feature model explicitly represents the fundamentally discontinuous and irregularly connected nature of systems of such systems, by constraining flow and transport to occur only within such features and their intersections. Pathways for flow and solute transport in this conceptualization are a consequence not just of the boundary conditions and hydrologic properties (as with continuum models), but also the irregularity of connections between conductive/transmissive features. The DFM software package described here is an extensible code for investigating problems of flow and transport in geological (natural or human-altered) systems that can be characterized effectively in terms of discrete features. With this

  15. Discrete Feature Model (DFM) User Documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geier, Joel

    2008-06-01

    This manual describes the Discrete-Feature Model (DFM) software package for modelling groundwater flow and solute transport in networks of discrete features. A discrete-feature conceptual model represents fractures and other water-conducting features around a repository as discrete conductors surrounded by a rock matrix which is usually treated as impermeable. This approximation may be valid for crystalline rocks such as granite or basalt, which have very low permeability if macroscopic fractures are excluded. A discrete feature is any entity that can conduct water and permit solute transport through bedrock, and can be reasonably represented as a piecewise-planar conductor. Examples of such entities may include individual natural fractures (joints or faults), fracture zones, and disturbed-zone features around tunnels (e.g. blasting-induced fractures or stress-concentration induced 'onion skin' fractures around underground openings). In a more abstract sense, the effectively discontinuous nature of pathways through fractured crystalline bedrock may be idealized as discrete, equivalent transmissive features that reproduce large-scale observations, even if the details of connective paths (and unconnected domains) are not precisely known. A discrete-feature model explicitly represents the fundamentally discontinuous and irregularly connected nature of systems of such systems, by constraining flow and transport to occur only within such features and their intersections. Pathways for flow and solute transport in this conceptualization are a consequence not just of the boundary conditions and hydrologic properties (as with continuum models), but also the irregularity of connections between conductive/transmissive features. The DFM software package described here is an extensible code for investigating problems of flow and transport in geological (natural or human-altered) systems that can be characterized effectively in terms of discrete features. With this software, the

  16. Discrete time population dynamics of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ladino, Lilia M.; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta; Valverde, Jose C.

    2016-01-01

    This work models and analyzes the dynamics of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture factors. It arises from the discretization of a previous model developed by Ladino and Valverde (2013), which represents a progress in the knowledge of the dynamics of exploited populations. Although the methods used here are related to the study of discrete-time systems and are different from those related to continuous version, the results are similar in both the discrete and the continuous case what confirm the skill in the selection of the factors to design the model. Unlike for the continuous-time case, for the discrete-time one some (non-negative) parametric constraints are derived from the biological significance of the model and become fundamental for the proofs of such results. Finally, numerical simulations show different scenarios of dynamics related to the analytical results which confirm the validity of the model.

  17. PHASE CHAOS IN THE DISCRETE KURAMOTO MODEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maistrenko, V.; Vasylenko, A.; Maistrenko, Y.

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the appearance of a novel, high-dimensional chaotic regime, called phase chaos, in a time-discrete Kuramoto model of globally coupled phase oscillators. This type of chaos is observed at small and intermediate values of the coupling strength. It arises from the nonlinear...... interaction among the oscillators, while the individual oscillators behave periodically when left uncoupled. For the four-dimensional time-discrete Kuramoto model, we outline the region of phase chaos in the parameter plane and determine the regions where phase chaos coexists with different periodic...

  18. Recursive smoothers for hidden discrete-time Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakhdar Aggoun

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a discrete-time Markov chain observed through another Markov chain. The proposed model extends models discussed by Elliott et al. (1995. We propose improved recursive formulae to update smoothed estimates of processes related to the model. These recursive estimates are used to update the parameter of the model via the expectation maximization (EM algorithm.

  19. A Multiscale Time-Splitting Discrete Fracture Model of Nanoparticles Transport in Fractured Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed F.; Kou, Jisheng; Sun, Shuyu

    2017-01-01

    Recently, applications of nanoparticles have been considered in many branches of petroleum engineering, especially, enhanced oil recovery. The current paper is devoted to investigate the problem of nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media, numerically. We employed the discrete-fracture model (DFM) to represent the flow and transport in the fractured formations. The system of the governing equations consists of the mass conservation law, Darcy's law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat. The variation of porosity and permeability due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores is also considered. We employ the multiscale time-splitting strategy to control different time-step sizes for different physics, such as pressure and concentration. The cell-centered finite difference (CCFD) method is used for the spatial discretization. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multiscale time splitting approach.

  20. A Multiscale Time-Splitting Discrete Fracture Model of Nanoparticles Transport in Fractured Porous Media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed F.

    2017-06-06

    Recently, applications of nanoparticles have been considered in many branches of petroleum engineering, especially, enhanced oil recovery. The current paper is devoted to investigate the problem of nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media, numerically. We employed the discrete-fracture model (DFM) to represent the flow and transport in the fractured formations. The system of the governing equations consists of the mass conservation law, Darcy\\'s law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat. The variation of porosity and permeability due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores is also considered. We employ the multiscale time-splitting strategy to control different time-step sizes for different physics, such as pressure and concentration. The cell-centered finite difference (CCFD) method is used for the spatial discretization. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multiscale time splitting approach.

  1. Discrete-Time Systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We also describe discrete-time systems in terms of difference ... A more modern alternative, especially for larger systems, is to convert ... In other words, ..... picture?) State-variable equations are also called state-space equations because the ...

  2. Model-Checking Discrete Duration Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Reichhardt

    1994-01-01

    can do model-checking. The subset we consider is expressive enough to formalize the requirements to the gas burner system given by A.P. Ravn (1993); but only for a discrete time domain. Model-checking is done by reducing the correctness problem ℳ|=𝒟 to the inclusion problem of regular...

  3. Discrete-Time LPV Current Control of an Induction Motor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, Klaus

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new method for gain-scheduled output feedback control of nonlinear systems to current control of an induction motor. The method relies on recently developed controller synthesis results for linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems, where the controller synthesis is formulated...... as a set of linear matrix inequalities with full-block multipliers. A standard nonlinear model of the motor is constructed and written on LPV form. We then show that, although originally developed in continuous time, the controller synthesis results can be applied to a discrete-time model as well without...... further complications. The synthesis method is applied to the model, yielding an LPV discrete-time controller. Finally, the efficiency of the control scheme is validated via simulations as well as on the actual induction motor, both in open-loop current control and when an outer speed control loop...

  4. Multiple periodic solutions for a discrete time model of plankton allelopathy

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Jianbao; Fang Hui

    2006-01-01

    We study a discrete time model of the growth of two species of plankton with competitive and allelopathic effects on each other N1(k+1) = N1(k)exp{r1(k)-a11(k)N1(k)-a12(k)N2(k)-b1(k)N1(k)N2(k)}, N2(k+1) = N2(k)exp{r2(k)-a21(k)N2(k)-b2(k)N1(k)N1(k)N2(k)}. A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence of multiple positive periodic solutions for this model. The approach is based on Mawhin's continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory as well as some a priori estimates. Some...

  5. Symmetries in discrete-time mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorrami, M.

    1996-01-01

    Based on a general formulation for discrete-time quantum mechanics, introduced by M. Khorrami (Annals Phys. 224 (1995), 101), symmetries in discrete-time quantum mechanics are investigated. It is shown that any classical continuous symmetry leads to a conserved quantity in classical mechanics, as well as quantum mechanics. The transformed wave function, however, has the correct evolution if and only if the symmetry is nonanomalous. Copyright copyright 1996 Academic Press, Inc

  6. RF Negative Ion Source Development at IPP Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraus, W.; McNeely, P.; Berger, M.; Christ-Koch, S.; Falter, H. D.; Fantz, U.; Franzen, P.; Froeschle, M.; Heinemann, B.; Leyer, S.; Riedl, R.; Speth, E.; Wuenderlich, D.

    2007-01-01

    IPP Garching is heavily involved in the development of an ion source for Neutral Beam Heating of the ITER Tokamak. RF driven ion sources have been successfully developed and are in operation on the ASDEX-Upgrade Tokamak for positive ion based NBH by the NB Heating group at IPP Garching. Building on this experience a RF driven H- ion source has been under development at IPP Garching as an alternative to the ITER reference design ion source. The number of test beds devoted to source development for ITER has increased from one (BATMAN) by the addition of two test beds (MANITU, RADI). This paper contains descriptions of the three test beds. Results on diagnostic development using laser photodetachment and cavity ringdown spectroscopy are given for BATMAN. The latest results for long pulse development on MANITU are presented including the to date longest pulse (600 s). As well, details of source modifications necessitated for pulses in excess of 100 s are given. The newest test bed RADI is still being commissioned and only technical details of the test bed are included in this paper. The final topic of the paper is an investigation into the effects of biasing the plasma grid

  7. Time-Discrete Higher-Order ALE Formulations: Stability

    KAUST Repository

    Bonito, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) formulations deal with PDEs on deformable domains upon extending the domain velocity from the boundary into the bulk with the purpose of keeping mesh regularity. This arbitrary extension has no effect on the stability of the PDE but may influence that of a discrete scheme. We examine this critical issue for higher-order time stepping without space discretization. We propose time-discrete discontinuous Galerkin (dG) numerical schemes of any order for a time-dependent advection-diffusion-model problem in moving domains, and study their stability properties. The analysis hinges on the validity of the Reynold\\'s identity for dG. Exploiting the variational structure and assuming exact integration, we prove that our conservative and nonconservative dG schemes are equivalent and unconditionally stable. The same results remain true for piecewise polynomial ALE maps of any degree and suitable quadrature that guarantees the validity of the Reynold\\'s identity. This approach generalizes the so-called geometric conservation law to higher-order methods. We also prove that simpler Runge-Kutta-Radau methods of any order are conditionally stable, that is, subject to a mild ALE constraint on the time steps. Numerical experiments corroborate and complement our theoretical results. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  8. A Discrete Heterogeneous-Group Economic Growth Model with Endogenous Leisure Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a one-sector multigroup growth model with endogenous labor supply in discrete time. Proposing an alternative approach to behavior of households, we examine the dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. We show how human capital levels, preferences, and labor force of heterogeneous households determine the national economic growth, wealth, and income distribution and time allocation of the groups. By simulation we demonstrate, for instance, that in the three-group economy when the rich group's human capital is improved, all the groups will economically benefit, and the leisure times of all the groups are reduced but when any other group's human capital is improved, the group will economically benefit, the other two groups economically lose, and the leisure times of all the groups are increased.

  9. Volatility Modeling, Seasonality and Risk-Return Relationship in GARCH-in-Mean Framework: The Case of Indian Stock and Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Brajesh Kumar; Singh, Priyanka

    2008-01-01

    This paper is based on an empirical study of volatility, risk premium and seasonality in risk-return relation of the Indian stock and commodity markets. This investigation is conducted by means of the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the mean model (GARCH-in-Mean) introduced by Engle et al. (1987). A systematic approach to model volatility in returns is presented. Volatility clustering and asymmetric nature is examined for Indian stock and commodity markets. The risk-r...

  10. Integrals of Motion for Discrete-Time Optimal Control Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Torres, Delfim F. M.

    2003-01-01

    We obtain a discrete time analog of E. Noether's theorem in Optimal Control, asserting that integrals of motion associated to the discrete time Pontryagin Maximum Principle can be computed from the quasi-invariance properties of the discrete time Lagrangian and discrete time control system. As corollaries, results for first-order and higher-order discrete problems of the calculus of variations are obtained.

  11. Explicit/multi-parametric model predictive control (MPC) of linear discrete-time systems by dynamic and multi-parametric programming

    KAUST Repository

    Kouramas, K.I.; Faí sca, N.P.; Panos, C.; Pistikopoulos, E.N.

    2011-01-01

    This work presents a new algorithm for solving the explicit/multi- parametric model predictive control (or mp-MPC) problem for linear, time-invariant discrete-time systems, based on dynamic programming and multi-parametric programming techniques

  12. Order-disorder transitions in time-discrete mean field systems with memory: a novel approach via nonlinear autoregressive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T D; Mongkolsakulvong, S

    2015-01-01

    In a previous study strongly nonlinear autoregressive (SNAR) models have been introduced as a generalization of the widely-used time-discrete autoregressive models that are known to apply both to Markov and non-Markovian systems. In contrast to conventional autoregressive models, SNAR models depend on process mean values. So far, only linear dependences have been studied. We consider the case in which process mean values can have a nonlinear impact on the processes under consideration. It is shown that such models describe Markov and non-Markovian many-body systems with mean field forces that exhibit a nonlinear impact on single subsystems. We exemplify that such nonlinear dependences can describe order-disorder phase transitions of time-discrete Markovian and non-Markovian many-body systems. The relevant order parameter equations are derived and issues of stability and stationarity are studied. (paper)

  13. Fractional-Order Discrete-Time Laguerre Filters: A New Tool for Modeling and Stability Analysis of Fractional-Order LTI SISO Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Stanisławski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents new results on modeling and analysis of dynamics of fractional-order discrete-time linear time-invariant single-input single-output (LTI SISO systems by means of new, two-layer, “fractional-order discrete-time Laguerre filters.” It is interesting that the fractionality of the filters at the upper system dynamics layer is directly projected from the lower Laguerre-based approximation layer for the Grünwald-Letnikov difference. A new stability criterion for discrete-time fractional-order Laguerre-based LTI SISO systems is introduced and supplemented with a stability preservation analysis. Both the stability criterion and the stability preservation analysis bring up rather surprising results, which is illustrated with simulation examples.

  14. Identification of a parametric, discrete-time model of ankle stiffness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarin, Diego L; Jalaleddini, Kian; Kearney, Robert E

    2013-01-01

    Dynamic ankle joint stiffness defines the relationship between the position of the ankle and the torque acting about it and can be separated into intrinsic and reflex components. Under stationary conditions, intrinsic stiffness can described by a linear second order system while reflex stiffness is described by Hammerstein system whose input is delayed velocity. Given that reflex and intrinsic torque cannot be measured separately, there has been much interest in the development of system identification techniques to separate them analytically. To date, most methods have been nonparametric and as a result there is no direct link between the estimated parameters and those of the stiffness model. This paper presents a novel algorithm for identification of a discrete-time model of ankle stiffness. Through simulations we show that the algorithm gives unbiased results even in the presence of large, non-white noise. Application of the method to experimental data demonstrates that it produces results consistent with previous findings.

  15. Taylor O(h³) Discretization of ZNN Models for Dynamic Equality-Constrained Quadratic Programming With Application to Manipulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Bolin; Zhang, Yunong; Jin, Long

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, a new Taylor-type numerical differentiation formula is first presented to discretize the continuous-time Zhang neural network (ZNN), and obtain higher computational accuracy. Based on the Taylor-type formula, two Taylor-type discrete-time ZNN models (termed Taylor-type discrete-time ZNNK and Taylor-type discrete-time ZNNU models) are then proposed and discussed to perform online dynamic equality-constrained quadratic programming. For comparison, Euler-type discrete-time ZNN models (called Euler-type discrete-time ZNNK and Euler-type discrete-time ZNNU models) and Newton iteration, with interesting links being found, are also presented. It is proved herein that the steady-state residual errors of the proposed Taylor-type discrete-time ZNN models, Euler-type discrete-time ZNN models, and Newton iteration have the patterns of O(h(3)), O(h(2)), and O(h), respectively, with h denoting the sampling gap. Numerical experiments, including the application examples, are carried out, of which the results further substantiate the theoretical findings and the efficacy of Taylor-type discrete-time ZNN models. Finally, the comparisons with Taylor-type discrete-time derivative model and other Lagrange-type discrete-time ZNN models for dynamic equality-constrained quadratic programming substantiate the superiority of the proposed Taylor-type discrete-time ZNN models once again.

  16. A new epidemic modeling approach: Multi-regions discrete-time model with travel-blocking vicinity optimal control strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakary, Omar; Rachik, Mostafa; Elmouki, Ilias

    2017-08-01

    First, we devise in this paper, a multi-regions discrete-time model which describes the spatial-temporal spread of an epidemic which starts from one region and enters to regions which are connected with their neighbors by any kind of anthropological movement. We suppose homogeneous Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) populations, and we consider in our simulations, a grid of colored cells, which represents the whole domain affected by the epidemic while each cell can represent a sub-domain or region. Second, in order to minimize the number of infected individuals in one region, we propose an optimal control approach based on a travel-blocking vicinity strategy which aims to control only one cell by restricting movements of infected people coming from all neighboring cells. Thus, we show the influence of the optimal control approach on the controlled cell. We should also note that the cellular modeling approach we propose here, can also describes infection dynamics of regions which are not necessarily attached one to an other, even if no empty space can be viewed between cells. The theoretical method we follow for the characterization of the travel-locking optimal controls, is based on a discrete version of Pontryagin's maximum principle while the numerical approach applied to the multi-points boundary value problems we obtain here, is based on discrete progressive-regressive iterative schemes. We illustrate our modeling and control approaches by giving an example of 100 regions.

  17. Synchronization of discrete-time hyperchaotic systems: An application in communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilar-Bustos, A.Y.; Cruz-Hernandez, C.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the synchronization problem of discrete-time complex dynamics is presented. In particular, we use the model-matching approach from nonlinear control theory to synchronize two unidirectionally coupled discrete-time hyperchaotic systems. A potential application to secure/private communication of confidential information is also given. By using different (hyperchaotic) encryption schemes with a single and two transmission channels, we show that output synchronization of hyperchaotic maps is indeed suitable for encryption, transmission, and decryption of information.

  18. On Stochastic Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Fuzzy Systems with Packet Dropout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingqi Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness problems for one family of fuzzy discrete-time systems over networks with packet dropout, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, we present the dynamic model description studied, in which the discrete-time fuzzy T-S systems with packet loss can be described by one class of fuzzy Markovian jump systems. Then, the concepts of stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness and problem formulation are given. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions on stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness are established for the resulting closed-loop fuzzy discrete-time system with Markovian jumps, and state-feedback controllers are designed to ensure stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness of the class of fuzzy systems. The stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the stochastic stability of the class of fuzzy T-S systems with packet loss. Finally, two illustrative examples are presented to show the validity of the developed methodology.

  19. From Discrete Space-Time to Minkowski Space: Basic Mechanisms, Methods and Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finster, Felix

    This survey article reviews recent results on fermion systems in discrete space-time and corresponding systems in Minkowski space. After a basic introduction to the discrete setting, we explain a mechanism of spontaneous symmetry breaking which leads to the emergence of a discrete causal structure. As methods to study the transition between discrete space-time and Minkowski space, we describe a lattice model for a static and isotropic space-time, outline the analysis of regularization tails of vacuum Dirac sea configurations, and introduce a Lorentz invariant action for the masses of the Dirac seas. We mention the method of the continuum limit, which allows to analyze interacting systems. Open problems are discussed.

  20. Dynamics of a two-dimensional discrete-time SIS model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime H. Barrera

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We analyze a two-dimensional discrete-time SIS model with a non-constant total population. Our goal is to determine the interaction between the total population, the susceptible class and the infective class, and the implications this may have for the disease dynamics. Utilizing a constant recruitment rate in the susceptible class, it is possible to assume the existence of an asymptotic limiting equation, which enables us to reduce the system of, two-equations into a single, dynamically equivalent equation. In this case, we are able to demonstrate the global stability of the disease-free and the endemic equilibria when the basic reproductive number (Ro is less than one and greater than one, respectively. When we consider a non-constant recruitment rate, the total population bifurcates as we vary the birth rate and the death rate. Using computer simulations, we observe different behavior among the infective class and the total population, and possibly, the occurrence of a strange attractor.

  1. The discretized Schroedinger equation and simple models for semiconductor quantum wells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boykin, Timothy B; Klimeck, Gerhard

    2004-01-01

    The discretized Schroedinger equation is one of the most commonly employed methods for solving one-dimensional quantum mechanics problems on the computer, yet many of its characteristics remain poorly understood. The differences with the continuous Schroedinger equation are generally viewed as shortcomings of the discrete model and are typically described in purely mathematical terms. This is unfortunate since the discretized equation is more productively viewed from the perspective of solid-state physics, which naturally links the discrete model to realistic semiconductor quantum wells and nanoelectronic devices. While the relationship between the discrete model and a one-dimensional tight-binding model has been known for some time, the fact that the discrete Schroedinger equation admits analytic solutions for quantum wells has gone unnoted. Here we present a solution to this new analytically solvable problem. We show that the differences between the discrete and continuous models are due to their fundamentally different bandstructures, and present evidence for our belief that the discrete model is the more physically reasonable one

  2. Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Hudson

    Full Text Available The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period, PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd rather than individual level.

  3. Multifractality, imperfect scaling and hydrological properties of rainfall time series simulated by continuous universal multifractal and discrete random cascade models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Serinaldi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Discrete multiplicative random cascade (MRC models were extensively studied and applied to disaggregate rainfall data, thanks to their formal simplicity and the small number of involved parameters. Focusing on temporal disaggregation, the rationale of these models is based on multiplying the value assumed by a physical attribute (e.g., rainfall intensity at a given time scale L, by a suitable number b of random weights, to obtain b attribute values corresponding to statistically plausible observations at a smaller L/b time resolution. In the original formulation of the MRC models, the random weights were assumed to be independent and identically distributed. However, for several studies this hypothesis did not appear to be realistic for the observed rainfall series as the distribution of the weights was shown to depend on the space-time scale and rainfall intensity. Since these findings contrast with the scale invariance assumption behind the MRC models and impact on the applicability of these models, it is worth studying their nature. This study explores the possible presence of dependence of the parameters of two discrete MRC models on rainfall intensity and time scale, by analyzing point rainfall series with 5-min time resolution. Taking into account a discrete microcanonical (MC model based on beta distribution and a discrete canonical beta-logstable (BLS, the analysis points out that the relations between the parameters and rainfall intensity across the time scales are detectable and can be modeled by a set of simple functions accounting for the parameter-rainfall intensity relationship, and another set describing the link between the parameters and the time scale. Therefore, MC and BLS models were modified to explicitly account for these relationships and compared with the continuous in scale universal multifractal (CUM model, which is used as a physically based benchmark model. Monte Carlo simulations point out

  4. A latent class multiple constraint multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model of time use and goods consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    This paper develops a microeconomic theory-based multiple discrete continuous choice model that considers: (a) that both goods consumption and time allocations (to work and non-work activities) enter separately as decision variables in the utility fu...

  5. Discrete-Time Biomedical Signal Encryption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grigoraş

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Chaotic modulation is a strong method of improving communication security. Analog and discrete chaotic systems are presented in actual literature. Due to the expansion of digital communication, discrete-time systems become more efficient and closer to actual technology. The present contribution offers an in-depth analysis of the effects chaos encryption produce on 1D and 2D biomedical signals. The performed simulations show that modulating signals are precisely recovered by the synchronizing receiver if discrete systems are digitally implemented and the coefficients precisely correspond. Channel noise is also applied and its effects on biomedical signal demodulation are highlighted.

  6. The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and

  7. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  8. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  9. A discrete-time adaptive control scheme for robot manipulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarokh, M.

    1990-01-01

    A discrete-time model reference adaptive control scheme is developed for trajectory tracking of robot manipulators. The scheme utilizes feedback, feedforward, and auxiliary signals, obtained from joint angle measurement through simple expressions. Hyperstability theory is utilized to derive the adaptation laws for the controller gain matrices. It is shown that trajectory tracking is achieved despite gross robot parameter variation and uncertainties. The method offers considerable design flexibility and enables the designer to improve the performance of the control system by adjusting free design parameters. The discrete-time adaptation algorithm is extremely simple and is therefore suitable for real-time implementation. Simulations and experimental results are given to demonstrate the performance of the scheme.

  10. Value-at-risk estimations of energy commodities via long-memory, asymmetry and fat-tailed GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aloui, Chaker; Mabrouk, Samir

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfalls for some major crude oil and gas commodities for both short and long trading positions. Classical VaR estimations as well as RiskMetrics and other extensions to cases considering for long-range memory, asymmetry and fat-tail in energy markets volatility were conducted. We computed the VaR for three ARCH/GARCH-type models including FIGARCH, FIAPARCH and HYGARCH. These models were estimated in the presence of three alternative innovation's distributions: normal, Student and skewed Student. Our results show that considering for long-range memory, fat-tails and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one-day-ahead VaR for both short and long trading positions. Moreover, the FIAPARCH model outperforms the other models in the VaR's prediction. These results present several potential implications for energy markets risk quantifications and hedging strategies. (author)

  11. Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

  12. Discrete Variational Approach for Modeling Laser-Plasma Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. Paxon; Shadwick, B. A.

    2014-10-01

    The traditional approach for fluid models of laser-plasma interactions begins by approximating fields and derivatives on a grid in space and time, leading to difference equations that are manipulated to create a time-advance algorithm. In contrast, by introducing the spatial discretization at the level of the action, the resulting Euler-Lagrange equations have particular differencing approximations that will exactly satisfy discrete versions of the relevant conservation laws. For example, applying a spatial discretization in the Lagrangian density leads to continuous-time, discrete-space equations and exact energy conservation regardless of the spatial grid resolution. We compare the results of two discrete variational methods using the variational principles from Chen and Sudan and Brizard. Since the fluid system conserves energy and momentum, the relative errors in these conserved quantities are well-motivated physically as figures of merit for a particular method. This work was supported by the U. S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-SC0008382 and by the National Science Foundation under Contract No. PHY-1104683.

  13. Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucky I. Igbinosun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Most of the models of road traffic flow at fixed-cycle controlled intersection assume stationary distributions and provide steady state results. The assumption that a constant number of vehicles can leave the system during the green phase is unrealistic in real life situations. A discrete time queuing model was developed to describe the operation of traffic flow at a road intersection with fixed-cycle signalized control and to account for the randomness in the number of vehicles that can leave the system. The results show the expected queue size in the system when the traffic is light and for a busy period, respectively. For the light period, when the traffic intensity is less than one, it takes a shorter green cycle time for vehicles to clear up than during high traffic intensity (the road junction is saturated. Increasing the number of cars that can leave the junction at the turn of the green phase reduces the number of cycle times before the queue is cleared.

  14. Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romilly, Peter

    2005-07-01

    Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

  15. Symposium on disruptive instabilities at Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lackner, K.

    1979-01-01

    The phenomenon of disruptive instabilities was investigated with a special care at the IPP at Garching. After lectures and panel sessions it appears suitable, to subdivide the disruptive phenomena into four classes: 1. The internal disruption (the socalled saw-tooth oscillators). 2. the socalled reconnection disruptions. 3. The large disruptions. 4. The small disruptions. The four appearance forms of the phenomena are briefly explained. (GG) [de

  16. Limit theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH (1,1) process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mikosch, T; Starica, C

    2000-01-01

    The asymptotic theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH(I, 1) process is provided. Special attention is given to the case when the sum of the ARCH and GARCH parameters is close to 1, that is, when one is close to an infinite Variance marginal distribution. This situation has

  17. Mode locking and quasiperiodicity in a discrete-time Chialvo neuron model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fengjuan; Cao, Hongjun

    2018-03-01

    The two-dimensional parameter spaces of a discrete-time Chialvo neuron model are investigated. Our studies demonstrate that for all our choice of two parameters (i) the fixed point is destabilized via Neimark-Sacker bifurcation; (ii) there exist mode locking structures like Arnold tongues and shrimps, with periods organized in a Farey tree sequence, embedded in quasiperiodic/chaotic region. We determine analytically the location of the parameter sets where Neimark-Sacker bifurcation occurs, and the location on this curve where Arnold tongues of arbitrary period are born. Properties of the transition that follows the so-called two-torus from quasiperiodicity to chaos are presented clearly and proved strictly by using numerical simulations such as bifurcation diagrams, the largest Lyapunov exponent diagram on MATLAB and C++.

  18. Robust performance results for discrete-time systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Magdi S.

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available The problems of robust performance and feedback control synthesis for a class of linear discrete-time systems with time-varying parametric uncertainties are addressed in this paper. The uncertainties are bound and have a linear matrix fractional form. Based on the concept of strongly robust H ∞ -performance criterion, results of robust stability and performance are developed and expressed in easily computable linear matrix inequalities. Synthesis of robust feedback controllers is carried out for several system models of interest.

  19. Mapping of uncertainty relations between continuous and discrete time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiuchiù, Davide; Pigolotti, Simone

    2018-03-01

    Lower bounds on fluctuations of thermodynamic currents depend on the nature of time, discrete or continuous. To understand the physical reason, we compare current fluctuations in discrete-time Markov chains and continuous-time master equations. We prove that current fluctuations in the master equations are always more likely, due to random timings of transitions. This comparison leads to a mapping of the moments of a current between discrete and continuous time. We exploit this mapping to obtain uncertainty bounds. Our results reduce the quests for uncertainty bounds in discrete and continuous time to a single problem.

  20. A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Kretschmer, Uta; Pigorsch, Christian

    We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuoustime components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday...... dependencies inherent in the high-frequency intraday data....

  1. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  2. Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishiura Hiroshi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting. Methods A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case study to the weekly incidence of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009 in Japan. By imposing a branching process approximation and by assuming the linear growth of cases within each reporting interval, the epidemic curve is predicted using only two parameters. The uncertainty bounds of the forecasts are computed using chains of conditional offspring distributions. Results The quality of the forecasts made before the epidemic peak appears largely to depend on obtaining valid parameter estimates. The forecasts of both weekly incidence and final epidemic size greatly improved at and after the epidemic peak with all the observed data points falling within the uncertainty bounds. Conclusions Real-time forecasting using the discrete time stochastic model with its simple computation of the uncertainty bounds was successful. Because of the simplistic model structure, the proposed model has the potential to additionally account for various types of heterogeneity, time-dependent transmission dynamics and epidemiological details. The impact of such complexities on forecasting should be explored when the data become available as part of the disease surveillance.

  3. Discrete-Time Sliding-Mode Control of Uncertain Systems with Time-Varying Delays via Descriptor Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maode Yan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of robust discrete-time sliding-mode control (DT-SMC design for a class of uncertain linear systems with time-varying delays. By applying a descriptor model transformation and Moon's inequality for bounding cross terms, a delay-dependent sufficient condition for the existence of stable sliding surface is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Based on this existence condition, the synthesized sliding mode controller can guarantee the sliding-mode reaching condition of the specified discrete-time sliding surface for all admissible uncertainties and time-varying delays. An illustrative example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Time-discrete higher order ALE formulations: a priori error analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Bonito, Andrea

    2013-03-16

    We derive optimal a priori error estimates for discontinuous Galerkin (dG) time discrete schemes of any order applied to an advection-diffusion model defined on moving domains and written in the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) framework. Our estimates hold without any restrictions on the time steps for dG with exact integration or Reynolds\\' quadrature. They involve a mild restriction on the time steps for the practical Runge-Kutta-Radau methods of any order. The key ingredients are the stability results shown earlier in Bonito et al. (Time-discrete higher order ALE formulations: stability, 2013) along with a novel ALE projection. Numerical experiments illustrate and complement our theoretical results. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  5. ITER technical advisory committee meeting at Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiwara, M.

    1999-01-01

    The ITER Technical Advisory Committee meeting took place on 24-27 February at the Garching Joint Work Site. According to the discussions at the ITER meeting in Yokohama in October 1998, the Technical Advisory Committee was requested to conduct a thorough review of the document 'Options for the reduced technical objectives / reduced cost ITER'

  6. First-principles modeling of electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishchenko, Michael I.; Dlugach, Janna M.; Yurkin, Maxim A.; Bi, Lei; Cairns, Brian; Liu, Li; Panetta, R. Lee; Travis, Larry D.; Yang, Ping; Zakharova, Nadezhda T.

    2018-01-01

    A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell–Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell–Lorentz equations, we trace the development

  7. First-principles modeling of electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishchenko, Michael I.; Dlugach, Janna M.; Yurkin, Maxim A.; Bi, Lei; Cairns, Brian; Liu, Li; Panetta, R. Lee; Travis, Larry D.; Yang, Ping; Zakharova, Nadezhda T.

    2016-01-01

    A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell–Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell–Lorentz equations, we trace the development

  8. First-principles modeling of electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishchenko, Michael I., E-mail: michael.i.mishchenko@nasa.gov [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Dlugach, Janna M. [Main Astronomical Observatory of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 27 Zabolotny Str., 03680, Kyiv (Ukraine); Yurkin, Maxim A. [Voevodsky Institute of Chemical Kinetics and Combustion, SB RAS, Institutskaya str. 3, 630090 Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Pirogova 2, 630090 Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Bi, Lei [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Cairns, Brian [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Liu, Li [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Panetta, R. Lee [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Travis, Larry D. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Yang, Ping [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Zakharova, Nadezhda T. [Trinnovim LLC, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States)

    2016-05-16

    A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell–Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell–Lorentz equations, we trace the development

  9. First-Principles Modeling Of Electromagnetic Scattering By Discrete and Discretely Heterogeneous Random Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishchenko, Michael I.; Dlugach, Janna M.; Yurkin, Maxim A.; Bi, Lei; Cairns, Brian; Liu, Li; Panetta, R. Lee; Travis, Larry D.; Yang, Ping; Zakharova, Nadezhda T.

    2016-01-01

    A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell's equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell- Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell-Lorentz equations, we trace the development of

  10. Ruin Analysis of a Discrete-Time Dependent Sparre Andersen Model with External Financial Activities and Randomized Dividends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Soo Kim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We consider a discrete-time dependent Sparre Andersen risk model which incorporates multiple threshold levels characterizing an insurer’s minimal capital requirement, dividend paying situations, and external financial activities. We focus on the development of a recursive computational procedure to calculate the finite-time ruin probabilities and expected total discounted dividends paid prior to ruin associated with this model. We investigate several numerical examples and make some observations concerning the impact our threshold levels have on the finite-time ruin probabilities and expected total discounted dividends paid prior to ruin.

  11. Investigation on biokinetics of 134Cs and 241Am radionuclides in three different organisms and a new evaluation by using discrete time model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guengoer, N.

    1999-05-01

    In this study, 134 Cs and 241 Am biokinetic experiments have been observed originally for Black Sea condition with using the gastropod Patella coerulea and the macro algae Enteremorpha linza and the common mussel Mytilus galloprovlncialis as bio indicator organisms. The experiments that have at least three originality, have been carried out very carefully and biokinetic parameters have been calculated by using classical model. The results are compared with the proportionally similar experiments in the literature globally. In this thesis, a new model application has proposed for the biokinetic evaluation for loss experiments of organisms. That is discrete time model. Loss experiments can be evaluated proportionally in a quick and easy way by using this model. Then, it can be observed that the calculated decreasing factor (r) by discrete time model, shows the loss process quality. Moreover, the loss experiments can be stopped when the decreasing factor goes to 1. So, the loss experiment can be evaluated rapidly and quickly with the adequate reliability by using discrete time model. Furthermore, the loss process in the organisms becomes slower and biologic half-lives becomes longer, when the decreasing factor (r) goes to 1. On the other hand, the biological depuration rate (k) goes to nearly zero. So, the proposed discrete time model that is applied in this thesis originally for biokinetic, can be evident that it has an adequate reliability for the biokinetic evaluation

  12. Arnold tongues and the Devil's Staircase in a discrete-time Hindmarsh–Rose neuron model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felicio, Carolini C.; Rech, Paulo C.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a three-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system, described by a three-dimensional map derived from a continuous-time Hindmarsh–Rose neuron model by the forward Euler method. For a fixed integration step size, we report a two-dimensional parameter-space for this system, where periodic structures, the so-called Arnold tongues, can be seen with periods organized in a Farey tree sequence. We also report possible modifications in this parameter-space, as a function of the integration step size. - Highlights: • We investigate the parameter-space of a particular 3D map. • Periodic structures, namely Arnold tongues, can be seen there. • They are organized in a Farey tree sequence. • The map was derived from a continuous-time Hindmarsh–Rose neuron model. • The forward Euler method was used for such purpose.

  13. The existence and global attractivity of almost periodic sequence solution of discrete-time neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Zhenkun; Wang Xinghua; Gao Feng

    2006-01-01

    In this Letter, we discuss discrete-time analogue of a continuous-time cellular neural network. Sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence of a unique almost periodic sequence solution which is globally attractive. Our results demonstrate dynamics of the formulated discrete-time analogue as mathematical models for the continuous-time cellular neural network in almost periodic case. Finally, a computer simulation illustrates the suitability of our discrete-time analogue as numerical algorithms in simulating the continuous-time cellular neural network conveniently

  14. Adaptive control of discrete-time chaotic systems: a fuzzy control approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Gang; Chen Guanrong

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses adaptive control of a class of discrete-time chaotic systems from a fuzzy control approach. Using the T-S model of discrete-time chaotic systems, an adaptive control algorithm is developed based on some conventional adaptive control techniques. The resulting adaptively controlled chaotic system is shown to be globally stable, and its robustness is discussed. A simulation example of the chaotic Henon map control is finally presented, to illustrate an application and the performance of the proposed control algorithm

  15. A continuous-time/discrete-time mixed audio-band sigma delta ADC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yan; Hua Siliang; Wang Donghui; Hou Chaohuan

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a mixed continuous-time/discrete-time, single-loop, fourth-order, 4-bit audio-band sigma delta ADC that combines the benefits of continuous-time and discrete-time circuits, while mitigating the challenges associated with continuous-time design. Measurement results show that the peak SNR of this ADC reaches 100 dB and the total power consumption is less than 30 mW. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  16. On the stability analysis of a general discrete-time population model involving predation and Allee effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a general discrete-time population dynamics involving predation with and without Allee effects which occur at low population density. The mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that the Allee effect has a stabilizing role on the local stability of the positive equilibrium points of this model.

  17. Hopf Bifurcation Analysis for a Stochastic Discrete-Time Hyperchaotic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Ran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of a discrete-time hyperchaotic system and the amplitude control of Hopf bifurcation for a stochastic discrete-time hyperchaotic system are investigated in this paper. Numerical simulations are presented to exhibit the complex dynamical behaviors in the discrete-time hyperchaotic system. Furthermore, the stochastic discrete-time hyperchaotic system with random parameters is transformed into its equivalent deterministic system with the orthogonal polynomial theory of discrete random function. In addition, the dynamical features of the discrete-time hyperchaotic system with random disturbances are obtained through its equivalent deterministic system. By using the Hopf bifurcation conditions of the deterministic discrete-time system, the specific conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation in the equivalent deterministic system are derived. And the amplitude control with random intensity is discussed in detail. Finally, the feasibility of the control method is demonstrated by numerical simulations.

  18. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Discrete- vs. Continuous-Time Modeling of Unequally Spaced Experience Sampling Method Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia de Haan-Rietdijk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Experience Sampling Method is a common approach in psychological research for collecting intensive longitudinal data with high ecological validity. One characteristic of ESM data is that it is often unequally spaced, because the measurement intervals within a day are deliberately varied, and measurement continues over several days. This poses a problem for discrete-time (DT modeling approaches, which are based on the assumption that all measurements are equally spaced. Nevertheless, DT approaches such as (vector autoregressive modeling are often used to analyze ESM data, for instance in the context of affective dynamics research. There are equivalent continuous-time (CT models, but they are more difficult to implement. In this paper we take a pragmatic approach and evaluate the practical relevance of the violated model assumption in DT AR(1 and VAR(1 models, for the N = 1 case. We use simulated data under an ESM measurement design to investigate the bias in the parameters of interest under four different model implementations, ranging from the true CT model that accounts for all the exact measurement times, to the crudest possible DT model implementation, where even the nighttime is treated as a regular interval. An analysis of empirical affect data illustrates how the differences between DT and CT modeling can play out in practice. We find that the size and the direction of the bias in DT (VAR models for unequally spaced ESM data depend quite strongly on the true parameter in addition to data characteristics. Our recommendation is to use CT modeling whenever possible, especially now that new software implementations have become available.

  20. Discrete-time inverse optimal control for nonlinear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sanchez, Edgar N

    2013-01-01

    Discrete-Time Inverse Optimal Control for Nonlinear Systems proposes a novel inverse optimal control scheme for stabilization and trajectory tracking of discrete-time nonlinear systems. This avoids the need to solve the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and minimizes a cost functional, resulting in a more efficient controller. Design More Efficient Controllers for Stabilization and Trajectory Tracking of Discrete-Time Nonlinear Systems The book presents two approaches for controller synthesis: the first based on passivity theory and the second on a control Lyapunov function (CLF). Th

  1. Analysis of Time Discretization and its Effect on Simulation Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert-Rainer Gillich

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the influence of time discretization on the results of simulations of technical systems. In this sense the systems are mod-eled using the SciLab/SCICOS environment, using different time inter-vals. Ulterior the processes are simulated and the results are com-pared.

  2. Railway capacity and expansion analysis using time discretized paths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinhardt, Line Blander; Pisinger, David; Lusby, Richard Martin

    2017-01-01

    of railway freight transportation on a long term strategic level. The model uses an hourly time discretization and analyses the impact of railway network expansions based on future demand forecasts. It provides an optimal macroscopic freight train schedule and can indicate the time and place of any...... variable penalties for the different passenger busy time slots. As part of a European Union project, all models are applied to a realistic case study that focuses on analyzing the capacity of railway network, in Denmark and Southern Sweden using demand forecasts for 2030. Results suggest that informative...

  3. A discrete event simulation model for evaluating time delays in a pipeline network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spricigo, Deisi; Muggiati, Filipe V.; Lueders, Ricardo; Neves Junior, Flavio [Federal University of Technology of Parana (UTFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Currently in the oil industry the logistic chain stands out as a strong candidate to obtain highest profit, since recent studies have pointed out to a cost reduction by adoption of better policies for distribution of oil derivatives, particularly those where pipelines are used to transport products. Although there are models to represent transfers of oil derivatives in pipelines, they are quite complex and computationally burden. In this paper, we are interested on models that are less detailed in terms of fluid dynamics but provide more information about operational decisions in a pipeline network. We propose a discrete event simulation model in ARENA that allows simulating a pipeline network based on average historical data. Time delays for transferring different products can be evaluated through different routes. It is considered that transport operations follow a historical behavior and average time delays can thus be estimated within certain bounds. Due to its stochastic nature, time quantities are characterized by average and dispersion measures. This allows comparing different operational scenarios for product transportation. Simulation results are compared to data obtained from a real world pipeline network and different scenarios of production and demand are analyzed. (author)

  4. Discrete-time optimal control and games on large intervals

    CERN Document Server

    Zaslavski, Alexander J

    2017-01-01

    Devoted to the structure of approximate solutions of discrete-time optimal control problems and approximate solutions of dynamic discrete-time two-player zero-sum games, this book presents results on properties of approximate solutions in an interval that is independent lengthwise, for all sufficiently large intervals. Results concerning the so-called turnpike property of optimal control problems and zero-sum games in the regions close to the endpoints of the time intervals are the main focus of this book. The description of the structure of approximate solutions on sufficiently large intervals and its stability will interest graduate students and mathematicians in optimal control and game theory, engineering, and economics. This book begins with a brief overview and moves on to analyze the structure of approximate solutions of autonomous nonconcave discrete-time optimal control Lagrange problems.Next the structures of approximate solutions of autonomous discrete-time optimal control problems that are discret...

  5. Handbook on modelling for discrete optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Pitsoulis, Leonidas; Williams, H

    2006-01-01

    The primary objective underlying the Handbook on Modelling for Discrete Optimization is to demonstrate and detail the pervasive nature of Discrete Optimization. While its applications cut across an incredibly wide range of activities, many of the applications are only known to specialists. It is the aim of this handbook to correct this. It has long been recognized that "modelling" is a critically important mathematical activity in designing algorithms for solving these discrete optimization problems. Nevertheless solving the resultant models is also often far from straightforward. In recent years it has become possible to solve many large-scale discrete optimization problems. However, some problems remain a challenge, even though advances in mathematical methods, hardware, and software technology have pushed the frontiers forward. This handbook couples the difficult, critical-thinking aspects of mathematical modeling with the hot area of discrete optimization. It will be done in an academic handbook treatment...

  6. Differential-discrete mathematical model of two phase flow heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debeljkovic, D.Lj.; Zitek, Pavel; Simeunovic, G.; Inard, Christian

    2007-01-01

    A dynamic thermal-hydraulic mathematical model of evaporator dynamics of a once - through sub critical steam generator is derived and presented. This model allows the investigation of evaporator dynamics including its transients responses. The evaporator was considered as a part of three-section (economizer, evaporator and super-heater) model with time varying phase boundaries and is described by a set of linearized discrete - difference equations which, with some other algebraic equations, constitutes a closed system of equations possible for exact computer solution. This model has been derived upon the fundamental equations of mass, energy and momentum balance. For the first time, a discrete differential approach has been applied in order to investigate such complex, two phase processes. Namely, this approach allows one to escape from the model of this process usually described by a set of partial differential equations and enables one, using this method, to simulate evaporators dynamics in an extraordinarily simple way. In current literature this approach is sometimes called physical discretization. (author)

  7. Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2015-11-01

    This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

  8. Scaled Bilateral Teleoperation Using Discrete-Time Sliding-Mode Controller

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khan, S.; Sabanovic, A.; Nergiz, A.O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the design of a discrete-time sliding-mode controller based on Lyapunov theory is presented along with a robust disturbance observer and is applied to a piezostage for high-precision motion. A linear model of a piezostage was used with nominal parameters to compensate the disturbance

  9. Engineering applications of discrete-time optimal control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui; Ravn, Hans V.

    1990-01-01

    Many problems of design and operation of engineering systems can be formulated as optimal control problems where time has been discretisized. This is also true even if 'time' is not involved in the formulation of the problem, but rather another one-dimensional parameter. This paper gives a review...... of some well-known and new results in discrete time optimal control methods applicable to practical problem solving within engineering. Emphasis is placed on dynamic programming, the classical maximum principle and generalized versions of the maximum principle for optimal control of discrete time systems...

  10. Time-discrete higher order ALE formulations: a priori error analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Bonito, Andrea; Kyza, Irene; Nochetto, Ricardo H.

    2013-01-01

    We derive optimal a priori error estimates for discontinuous Galerkin (dG) time discrete schemes of any order applied to an advection-diffusion model defined on moving domains and written in the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) framework. Our

  11. Discrete ellipsoidal statistical BGK model and Burnett equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu-Dong; Xu, Ai-Guo; Zhang, Guang-Cai; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Wang, Pei

    2018-06-01

    A new discrete Boltzmann model, the discrete ellipsoidal statistical Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (ESBGK) model, is proposed to simulate nonequilibrium compressible flows. Compared with the original discrete BGK model, the discrete ES-BGK has a flexible Prandtl number. For the discrete ES-BGK model in the Burnett level, two kinds of discrete velocity model are introduced and the relations between nonequilibrium quantities and the viscous stress and heat flux in the Burnett level are established. The model is verified via four benchmark tests. In addition, a new idea is introduced to recover the actual distribution function through the macroscopic quantities and their space derivatives. The recovery scheme works not only for discrete Boltzmann simulation but also for hydrodynamic ones, for example, those based on the Navier-Stokes or the Burnett equations.

  12. Perbandingan Berbagai Model Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Dalam Analisis Risiko Investasi Saham Syariah Dengan Metode Value At Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Farhan Qudratullah

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Value at Risk (VaR is one of the tools recommended Bank Indonesia to gauge the risk of an investment, the VaR approach tends to be more associated with the conventional assumption of a normal distribution, while contemporary empirical findings indicate the existence of patterns of abnormality in the nature of statistical data, especially on financial data. Up to this time shares in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII is still heavily influenced by the dynamics of market volatility which one, so the necessary in-depth analysis to help investors make the right decisions in investing. This research addresses the issue of risk analysis model using the VaR approach using a variety of model Heterokedastic Timeseris Conditionals (CHT and find the best model. As for the data used is the daily closing stock index data-Sharia stocks (JII post-crisis global 2008 (January 2009 – June 2011 and the software used is E-Views 5.1 and Excel 2007. The results obtained are of 16 (sixteen model approach to VaR-CHT used, only 5 (five a valid model on a confidence level of 99%, i.e. Approach (2.2 GARCH, GARCH M standard deviation GARCH (1,1, M Log (Variansi (1,1, TARCH M Log (Variansi (1,1, EGARCH and M Log (Variansi (1,1. The VaR Model of the CHT are the best and recommended in analyzing the risks of stock investment is Shariah (JII is a model that gives the value of the VaR model, i.e. the smallest VaR GARCH-M standard deviation (1,1 that gives the value of VaR is equal to 3.2396%.

  13. Convergence of discrete Aubry–Mather model in the continuous limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xifeng; Thieullen, Philippe

    2018-05-01

    We develop two approximation schemes for solving the cell equation and the discounted cell equation using Aubry–Mather–Fathi theory. The Hamiltonian is supposed to be Tonelli, time-independent and periodic in space. By Legendre transform it is equivalent to find a fixed point of some nonlinear operator, called Lax-Oleinik operator, which may be discounted or not. By discretizing in time, we are led to solve an additive eigenvalue problem involving a discrete Lax–Oleinik operator. We show how to approximate the effective Hamiltonian and some weak KAM solutions by letting the time step in the discrete model tend to zero. We also obtain a selected discrete weak KAM solution as in Davini et al (2016 Invent. Math. 206 29–55), and show that it converges to a particular solution of the cell equation. In order to unify the two settings, continuous and discrete, we develop a more general formalism of the short-range interactions.

  14. Road maintenance optimization through a discrete-time semi-Markov decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xueqing; Gao Hui

    2012-01-01

    Optimization models are necessary for efficient and cost-effective maintenance of a road network. In this regard, road deterioration is commonly modeled as a discrete-time Markov process such that an optimal maintenance policy can be obtained based on the Markov decision process, or as a renewal process such that an optimal maintenance policy can be obtained based on the renewal theory. However, the discrete-time Markov process cannot capture the real time at which the state transits while the renewal process considers only one state and one maintenance action. In this paper, road deterioration is modeled as a semi-Markov process in which the state transition has the Markov property and the holding time in each state is assumed to follow a discrete Weibull distribution. Based on this semi-Markov process, linear programming models are formulated for both infinite and finite planning horizons in order to derive optimal maintenance policies to minimize the life-cycle cost of a road network. A hypothetical road network is used to illustrate the application of the proposed optimization models. The results indicate that these linear programming models are practical for the maintenance of a road network having a large number of road segments and that they are convenient to incorporate various constraints on the decision process, for example, performance requirements and available budgets. Although the optimal maintenance policies obtained for the road network are randomized stationary policies, the extent of this randomness in decision making is limited. The maintenance actions are deterministic for most states and the randomness in selecting actions occurs only for a few states.

  15. Stabilisation of discrete-time polynomial fuzzy systems via a polynomial lyapunov approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasiri, Alireza; Nguang, Sing Kiong; Swain, Akshya; Almakhles, Dhafer

    2018-02-01

    This paper deals with the problem of designing a controller for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems which is represented by discrete-time polynomial fuzzy model. Most of the existing control design methods for discrete-time fuzzy polynomial systems cannot guarantee their Lyapunov function to be a radially unbounded polynomial function, hence the global stability cannot be assured. The proposed control design in this paper guarantees a radially unbounded polynomial Lyapunov functions which ensures global stability. In the proposed design, state feedback structure is considered and non-convexity problem is solved by incorporating an integrator into the controller. Sufficient conditions of stability are derived in terms of polynomial matrix inequalities which are solved via SOSTOOLS in MATLAB. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

  16. A discrete control model of PLANT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, C. M.

    1985-01-01

    A model of the PLANT system using the discrete control modeling techniques developed by Miller is described. Discrete control models attempt to represent in a mathematical form how a human operator might decompose a complex system into simpler parts and how the control actions and system configuration are coordinated so that acceptable overall system performance is achieved. Basic questions include knowledge representation, information flow, and decision making in complex systems. The structure of the model is a general hierarchical/heterarchical scheme which structurally accounts for coordination and dynamic focus of attention. Mathematically, the discrete control model is defined in terms of a network of finite state systems. Specifically, the discrete control model accounts for how specific control actions are selected from information about the controlled system, the environment, and the context of the situation. The objective is to provide a plausible and empirically testable accounting and, if possible, explanation of control behavior.

  17. Thermal modelling using discrete vasculature for thermal therapy: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, H.P.; Gellermann, J.; van den Berg, C.A.T.; Stauffer, P.R.; Hand, J.W.; Crezee, J.

    2013-01-01

    Reliable temperature information during clinical hyperthermia and thermal ablation is essential for adequate treatment control, but conventional temperature measurements do not provide 3D temperature information. Treatment planning is a very useful tool to improve treatment quality and substantial progress has been made over the last decade. Thermal modelling is a very important and challenging aspect of hyperthermia treatment planning. Various thermal models have been developed for this purpose, with varying complexity. Since blood perfusion is such an important factor in thermal redistribution of energy in in vivo tissue, thermal simulations are most accurately performed by modelling discrete vasculature. This review describes the progress in thermal modelling with discrete vasculature for the purpose of hyperthermia treatment planning and thermal ablation. There has been significant progress in thermal modelling with discrete vasculature. Recent developments have made real-time simulations possible, which can provide feedback during treatment for improved therapy. Future clinical application of thermal modelling with discrete vasculature in hyperthermia treatment planning is expected to further improve treatment quality. PMID:23738700

  18. Stabilization of discrete-time LTI positive systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krokavec Dušan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper mitigates the existing conditions reported in the previous literature for control design of discrete-time linear positive systems. Incorporating an associated structure of linear matrix inequalities, combined with the Lyapunov inequality guaranteing asymptotic stability of discrete-time positive system structures, new conditions are presented with which the state-feedback controllers and the system state observers can be designed. Associated solutions of the proposed design conditions are illustrated by numerical illustrative examples.

  19. A time-varying extremum-seeking control approach for discrete-time systems with application to model predictive control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guay, M.; Beerens, R.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the solution of a real-time optimization problem using adaptive extremum seeking control for a class of unknown discrete-time nonlinear systems. It is assumed that the equations describing the dynamics of the nonlinear system and the cost function to be minimized are unknown and

  20. Stability analysis of implicit time discretizations for the Compton-scattering Fokker-Planck equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Densmore, Jeffery D.; Warsa, James S.; Lowrie, Robert B.; Morel, Jim E.

    2009-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation is a widely used approximation for modeling the Compton scattering of photons in high energy density applications. In this paper, we perform a stability analysis of three implicit time discretizations for the Compton-Scattering Fokker-Planck equation. Specifically, we examine (i) a Semi-Implicit (SI) scheme that employs backward-Euler differencing but evaluates temperature-dependent coefficients at their beginning-of-time-step values, (ii) a Fully Implicit (FI) discretization that instead evaluates temperature-dependent coefficients at their end-of-time-step values, and (iii) a Linearized Implicit (LI) scheme, which is developed by linearizing the temperature dependence of the FI discretization within each time step. Our stability analysis shows that the FI and LI schemes are unconditionally stable and cannot generate oscillatory solutions regardless of time-step size, whereas the SI discretization can suffer from instabilities and nonphysical oscillations for sufficiently large time steps. With the results of this analysis, we present time-step limits for the SI scheme that prevent undesirable behavior. We test the validity of our stability analysis and time-step limits with a set of numerical examples.

  1. Stability analysis of implicit time discretizations for the Compton-scattering Fokker-Planck equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Densmore, Jeffery D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Warsa, James S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lowrie, Robert B [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Morel, Jim E [TEXAS A& M UNIV

    2008-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation is a widely used approximation for modeling the Compton scattering of photons in high energy density applications. In this paper, we perform a stability analysis of three implicit time discretizations for the Compton-Scattering Fokker-Planck equation. Specifically, we examine (i) a Semi-Implicit (SI) scheme that employs backward-Euler differencing but evaluates temperature-dependent coefficients at their beginning-of-time-step values, (ii) a Fully Implicit (FI) discretization that instead evaluates temperature-dependent coefficients at their end-of-time-step values, and (iii) a Linearized Implicit (LI) scheme, which is developed by linearizing the temperature dependence of the FI discretization within each time step. Our stability analysis shows that the FI and LI schemes are unconditionally stable and cannot generate oscillatory solutions regardless of time-step size, whereas the SI discretization can suffer from instabilities and nonphysical oscillations for sufficiently large time steps. With the results of this analysis, we present time-step limits for the SI scheme that prevent undesirable behavior. We test the validity of our stability analysis and time-step limits with a set of numerical examples.

  2. Stability analysis of implicit time discretizations for the Compton-scattering Fokker-Planck equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Jeffery D.; Warsa, James S.; Lowrie, Robert B.; Morel, Jim E.

    2009-09-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation is a widely used approximation for modeling the Compton scattering of photons in high energy density applications. In this paper, we perform a stability analysis of three implicit time discretizations for the Compton-Scattering Fokker-Planck equation. Specifically, we examine (i) a Semi-Implicit (SI) scheme that employs backward-Euler differencing but evaluates temperature-dependent coefficients at their beginning-of-time-step values, (ii) a Fully Implicit (FI) discretization that instead evaluates temperature-dependent coefficients at their end-of-time-step values, and (iii) a Linearized Implicit (LI) scheme, which is developed by linearizing the temperature dependence of the FI discretization within each time step. Our stability analysis shows that the FI and LI schemes are unconditionally stable and cannot generate oscillatory solutions regardless of time-step size, whereas the SI discretization can suffer from instabilities and nonphysical oscillations for sufficiently large time steps. With the results of this analysis, we present time-step limits for the SI scheme that prevent undesirable behavior. We test the validity of our stability analysis and time-step limits with a set of numerical examples.

  3. Discrete Emotion Effects on Lexical Decision Response Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesemeister, Benny B.; Kuchinke, Lars; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2011-01-01

    Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far. Using backward elimination and multiple regression analyses, we show that five discrete emotions (i.e., happiness, disgust, fear, anger and sadness) explain as much variance as two published dimensional models assuming continuous or categorical valence, with the variables happiness, disgust and fear significantly contributing to this account. Moreover, these effects even persist in an experiment with discrete emotion conditions when the stimuli are controlled for emotional valence and arousal levels. We interpret this result as evidence for discrete emotion effects in visual word recognition that cannot be explained by the two dimensional affective space account. PMID:21887307

  4. Discrete emotion effects on lexical decision response times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesemeister, Benny B; Kuchinke, Lars; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2011-01-01

    Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far. Using backward elimination and multiple regression analyses, we show that five discrete emotions (i.e., happiness, disgust, fear, anger and sadness) explain as much variance as two published dimensional models assuming continuous or categorical valence, with the variables happiness, disgust and fear significantly contributing to this account. Moreover, these effects even persist in an experiment with discrete emotion conditions when the stimuli are controlled for emotional valence and arousal levels. We interpret this result as evidence for discrete emotion effects in visual word recognition that cannot be explained by the two dimensional affective space account.

  5. Discrete emotion effects on lexical decision response times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benny B Briesemeister

    Full Text Available Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far. Using backward elimination and multiple regression analyses, we show that five discrete emotions (i.e., happiness, disgust, fear, anger and sadness explain as much variance as two published dimensional models assuming continuous or categorical valence, with the variables happiness, disgust and fear significantly contributing to this account. Moreover, these effects even persist in an experiment with discrete emotion conditions when the stimuli are controlled for emotional valence and arousal levels. We interpret this result as evidence for discrete emotion effects in visual word recognition that cannot be explained by the two dimensional affective space account.

  6. A systematic method for constructing time discretizations of integrable lattice systems: local equations of motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchida, Takayuki

    2010-01-01

    We propose a new method for discretizing the time variable in integrable lattice systems while maintaining the locality of the equations of motion. The method is based on the zero-curvature (Lax pair) representation and the lowest-order 'conservation laws'. In contrast to the pioneering work of Ablowitz and Ladik, our method allows the auxiliary dependent variables appearing in the stage of time discretization to be expressed locally in terms of the original dependent variables. The time-discretized lattice systems have the same set of conserved quantities and the same structures of the solutions as the continuous-time lattice systems; only the time evolution of the parameters in the solutions that correspond to the angle variables is discretized. The effectiveness of our method is illustrated using examples such as the Toda lattice, the Volterra lattice, the modified Volterra lattice, the Ablowitz-Ladik lattice (an integrable semi-discrete nonlinear Schroedinger system) and the lattice Heisenberg ferromagnet model. For the modified Volterra lattice, we also present its ultradiscrete analogue.

  7. Fermion Systems in Discrete Space-Time Exemplifying the Spontaneous Generation of a Causal Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diethert, A.; Finster, F.; Schiefeneder, D.

    As toy models for space-time at the Planck scale, we consider examples of fermion systems in discrete space-time which are composed of one or two particles defined on two up to nine space-time points. We study the self-organization of the particles as described by a variational principle both analytically and numerically. We find an effect of spontaneous symmetry breaking which leads to the emergence of a discrete causal structure.

  8. A Discrete-Time Geo/G/1 Retrial Queue with Two Different Types of Vacations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze a discrete-time Geo/G/1 retrial queue with two different types of vacations and general retrial times. Two different types of vacation policies are investigated in this model, one of which is nonexhaustive urgent vacation during serving and the other is normal exhaustive vacation. For this model, we give the steady-state analysis for the considered queueing system. Firstly, we obtain the generating functions of the number of customers in our model. Then, we obtain the closed-form expressions of some performance measures and also give a stochastic decomposition result for the system size. Moreover, the relationship between this discrete-time model and the corresponding continuous-time model is also investigated. Finally, some numerical results are provided to illustrate the effect of nonexhaustive urgent vacation on some performance characteristics of the system.

  9. Recent developments in volatility modeling and applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Thavaneswaran

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In financial modeling, it has been constantly pointed out that volatility clustering and conditional nonnormality induced leptokurtosis observed in high frequency data. Financial time series data are not adequately modeled by normal distribution, and empirical evidence on the non-normality assumption is well documented in the financial literature (details are illustrated by Engle (1982 and Bollerslev (1986. An ARMA representation has been used by Thavaneswaran et al., in 2005, to derive the kurtosis of the various class of GARCH models such as power GARCH, non-Gaussian GARCH, nonstationary and random coefficient GARCH. Several empirical studies have shown that mixture distributions are more likely to capture heteroskedasticity observed in high frequency data than normal distribution. In this paper, some results on moment properties are generalized to stationary ARMA process with GARCH errors. Application to volatility forecasts and option pricing are also discussed in some detail.

  10. Hopf bifurcations of a ratio-dependent predator–prey model involving two discrete maturation time delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karaoglu, Esra; Merdan, Huseyin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A ratio-dependent predator–prey system involving two discrete maturation time delays is studied. • Hopf bifurcations are analyzed by choosing delay parameters as bifurcation parameters. • When a delay parameter passes through a critical value, Hopf bifurcations occur. • The direction of bifurcation, the period and the stability of periodic solution are also obtained. - Abstract: In this paper we give a detailed Hopf bifurcation analysis of a ratio-dependent predator–prey system involving two different discrete delays. By analyzing the characteristic equation associated with the model, its linear stability is investigated. Choosing delay terms as bifurcation parameters the existence of Hopf bifurcations is demonstrated. Stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions is determined by using the center manifold theorem and the normal form theory introduced by Hassard et al. Furthermore, some of the bifurcation properties including direction, stability and period are given. Finally, theoretical results are supported by some numerical simulations

  11. Discrete time and continuous time dynamic mean-variance analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Reiss, Ariane

    1999-01-01

    Contrary to static mean-variance analysis, very few papers have dealt with dynamic mean-variance analysis. Here, the mean-variance efficient self-financing portfolio strategy is derived for n risky assets in discrete and continuous time. In the discrete setting, the resulting portfolio is mean-variance efficient in a dynamic sense. It is shown that the optimal strategy for n risky assets may be dominated if the expected terminal wealth is constrained to exactly attain a certain goal instead o...

  12. Global consensus for discrete-time competitive systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shih, C.-W.; Tseng, J.-P.

    2009-01-01

    Grossberg established a remarkable convergence theorem for a class of competitive systems without knowing and using Lyapunov function for the systems. We present the parallel investigations for the discrete-time version of the Grossberg's model. Through developing an extended component-competing analysis for the coupled system, without knowing a Lyapunov function and applying the LaSalle's invariance principle, the global pattern formation or the so-called global consensus for the system can be achieved. A numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the present theory.

  13. Stability analysis of the Euler discretization for SIR epidemic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suryanto, Agus

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we consider a discrete SIR epidemic model obtained by the Euler method. For that discrete model, existence of disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is established. Sufficient conditions on the local asymptotical stability of both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are also derived. It is found that the local asymptotical stability of the existing equilibrium is achieved only for a small time step size h. If h is further increased and passes the critical value, then both equilibriums will lose their stability. Our numerical simulations show that a complex dynamical behavior such as bifurcation or chaos phenomenon will appear for relatively large h. Both analytical and numerical results show that the discrete SIR model has a richer dynamical behavior than its continuous counterpart

  14. Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

  15. A discrete classical space-time could require 6 extra-dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillemant, Philippe; Medale, Marc; Abid, Cherifa

    2018-01-01

    We consider a discrete space-time in which conservation laws are computed in such a way that the density of information is kept bounded. We use a 2D billiard as a toy model to compute the uncertainty propagation in ball positions after every shock and the corresponding loss of phase information. Our main result is the computation of a critical time step above which billiard calculations are no longer deterministic, meaning that a multiverse of distinct billiard histories begins to appear, caused by the lack of information. Then, we highlight unexpected properties of this critical time step and the subsequent exponential evolution of the number of histories with time, to observe that after certain duration all billiard states could become possible final states, independent of initial conditions. We conclude that if our space-time is really a discrete one, one would need to introduce extra-dimensions in order to provide supplementary constraints that specify which history should be played.

  16. Examining School-Based Bullying Interventions Using Multilevel Discrete Time Hazard Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagaman, M. Alex; Geiger, Jennifer Mullins; Bermudez-Parsai, Monica; Hedberg, E. C.

    2014-01-01

    Although schools have been trying to address bulling by utilizing different approaches that stop or reduce the incidence of bullying, little remains known about what specific intervention strategies are most successful in reducing bullying in the school setting. Using the social-ecological framework, this paper examines school-based disciplinary interventions often used to deliver consequences to deter the reoccurrence of bullying and aggressive behaviors among school-aged children. Data for this study are drawn from the School-Wide Information System (SWIS) with the final analytic sample consisting of 1,221 students in grades K – 12 who received an office disciplinary referral for bullying during the first semester. Using Kaplan-Meier Failure Functions and Multi-level discrete time hazard models, determinants of the probability of a student receiving a second referral over time were examined. Of the seven interventions tested, only Parent-Teacher Conference (AOR=0.65, pbullying and aggressive behaviors. By using a social-ecological framework, schools can develop strategies that deter the reoccurrence of bullying by identifying key factors that enhance a sense of connection between the students’ mesosystems as well as utilizing disciplinary strategies that take into consideration student’s microsystem roles. PMID:22878779

  17. Speeding Up Network Simulations Using Discrete Time

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, Aaron; Armbruster, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    We develop a way of simulating disease spread in networks faster at the cost of some accuracy. Instead of a discrete event simulation (DES) we use a discrete time simulation. This aggregates events into time periods. We prove a bound on the accuracy attained. We also discuss the choice of step size and do an analytical comparison of the computational costs. Our error bound concept comes from the theory of numerical methods for SDEs and the basic proof structure comes from the theory of numeri...

  18. Discrete Hamiltonian evolution and quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, Viqar; Winkler, Oliver

    2004-01-01

    We study constrained Hamiltonian systems by utilizing general forms of time discretization. We show that for explicit discretizations, the requirement of preserving the canonical Poisson bracket under discrete evolution imposes strong conditions on both allowable discretizations and Hamiltonians. These conditions permit time discretizations for a limited class of Hamiltonians, which does not include homogeneous cosmological models. We also present two general classes of implicit discretizations which preserve Poisson brackets for any Hamiltonian. Both types of discretizations generically do not preserve first class constraint algebras. Using this observation, we show that time discretization provides a complicated time gauge fixing for quantum gravity models, which may be compared with the alternative procedure of gauge fixing before discretization

  19. Particle Swarm Based Approach of a Real-Time Discrete Neural Identifier for Linear Induction Motors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alma Y. Alanis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focusses on a discrete-time neural identifier applied to a linear induction motor (LIM model, whose model is assumed to be unknown. This neural identifier is robust in presence of external and internal uncertainties. The proposed scheme is based on a discrete-time recurrent high-order neural network (RHONN trained with a novel algorithm based on extended Kalman filter (EKF and particle swarm optimization (PSO, using an online series-parallel con…figuration. Real-time results are included in order to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme.

  20. On synchronized regions of discrete-time complex dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Zhisheng; Chen Guanrong

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the local synchronization of discrete-time complex networks is studied. First, it is shown that for any natural number n, there exists a discrete-time network which has at least left floor n/2 right floor +1 disconnected synchronized regions for local synchronization, which implies the possibility of intermittent synchronization behaviors. Different from the continuous-time networks, the existence of an unbounded synchronized region is impossible for discrete-time networks. The convexity of the synchronized regions is also characterized based on the stability of a class of matrix pencils, which is useful for enlarging the stability region so as to improve the network synchronizability.

  1. Ruin Probabilities in a Dependent Discrete-Time Risk Model With Gamma-Like Tailed Insurance Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing-Fang Huang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper considered a dependent discrete-time risk model, in which the insurance risks are represented by a sequence of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables with a common Gamma-like tailed distribution; the financial risks are denoted by another sequence of independent and identically distributed positive random variables with a finite upper endpoint, but a general dependence structure exists between each pair of the insurance risks and the financial risks. Following the works of Yang and Yuen in 2016, we derive some asymptotic relations for the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities. As a complement, we demonstrate our obtained result through a Crude Monte Carlo (CMC simulation with asymptotics.

  2. Equilibrium and response properties of the integrate-and-fire neuron in discrete time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz Helias

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The integrate-and-fire neuron with exponential postsynaptic potentials is a frequently employed model to study neural networks. Simulations in discrete time still have highest performance at moderate numerical errors, which makes them first choice for long-term simulations of plastic networks. Here we extend the population density approach to investigate how the equilibrium and response properties of the leaky integrate-and-fire neuron are affected by time discretization. We present a novel analytical treatment of the boundary condition at threshold, taking both discretization of time and finite synaptic weights into account. We uncover an increased membrane potential density just below threshold as the decisive property that explains the deviations found between simulations and the classical diffusion approximation. Temporal discretization and finite synaptic weights both contribute to this effect. Our treatment improves the standard formula to calculate the neuron’s equilibrium firing rate. Direct solution of the Markov process describing the evolution of the membrane potential density confirms our analysis and yields a method to calculate the firing rate exactly. Knowing the shape of the membrane potential distribution near threshold enables us to devise the transient response properties of the neuron model to synaptic input. We find a pronounced non-linear fast response component that has not been described by the prevailing continuous time theory for Gaussian white noise input.

  3. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cekus, Dawid; Warys, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible

  4. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

    2015-03-10

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

  5. Discrete Model Reference Adaptive Control System for Automatic Profiling Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Song

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Automatic profiling machine is a movement system that has a high degree of parameter variation and high frequency of transient process, and it requires an accurate control in time. In this paper, the discrete model reference adaptive control system of automatic profiling machine is discussed. Firstly, the model of automatic profiling machine is presented according to the parameters of DC motor. Then the design of the discrete model reference adaptive control is proposed, and the control rules are proven. The results of simulation show that adaptive control system has favorable dynamic performances.

  6. Discrete dispersion models and their Tweedie asymptotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Bent; Kokonendji, Célestin C.

    2016-01-01

    The paper introduce a class of two-parameter discrete dispersion models, obtained by combining convolution with a factorial tilting operation, similar to exponential dispersion models which combine convolution and exponential tilting. The equidispersed Poisson model has a special place in this ap......The paper introduce a class of two-parameter discrete dispersion models, obtained by combining convolution with a factorial tilting operation, similar to exponential dispersion models which combine convolution and exponential tilting. The equidispersed Poisson model has a special place...... in this approach, whereas several overdispersed discrete distributions, such as the Neyman Type A, Pólya-Aeppli, negative binomial and Poisson-inverse Gaussian, turn out to be Poisson-Tweedie factorial dispersion models with power dispersion functions, analogous to ordinary Tweedie exponential dispersion models...... with power variance functions. Using the factorial cumulant generating function as tool, we introduce a dilation operation as a discrete analogue of scaling, generalizing binomial thinning. The Poisson-Tweedie factorial dispersion models are closed under dilation, which in turn leads to a Poisson...

  7. Stability and bifurcation analysis for a discrete-time bidirectional ring neural network model with delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan-Ke Du

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We study a class of discrete-time bidirectional ring neural network model with delay. We discuss the asymptotic stability of the origin and the existence of Neimark-Sacker bifurcations, by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equation. Employing M-matrix theory and the Lyapunov functional method, global asymptotic stability of the origin is derived. Applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem, the direction of the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation and the stability of bifurcating periodic solutions are obtained. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main results.

  8. Adaptive Event-Triggered Control Based on Heuristic Dynamic Programming for Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Lu; Zhong, Xiangnan; Sun, Changyin; He, Haibo

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents the design of a novel adaptive event-triggered control method based on the heuristic dynamic programming (HDP) technique for nonlinear discrete-time systems with unknown system dynamics. In the proposed method, the control law is only updated when the event-triggered condition is violated. Compared with the periodic updates in the traditional adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) control, the proposed method can reduce the computation and transmission cost. An actor-critic framework is used to learn the optimal event-triggered control law and the value function. Furthermore, a model network is designed to estimate the system state vector. The main contribution of this paper is to design a new trigger threshold for discrete-time systems. A detailed Lyapunov stability analysis shows that our proposed event-triggered controller can asymptotically stabilize the discrete-time systems. Finally, we test our method on two different discrete-time systems, and the simulation results are included.

  9. Maximum likelihood unit rooting test in the presence GARCH: A new test with increased power

    OpenAIRE

    Cook , Steve

    2008-01-01

    Abstract The literature on testing the unit root hypothesis in the presence of GARCH errors is extended. A new test based upon the combination of local-to-unity detrending and joint maximum likelihood estimation of the autoregressive parameter and GARCH process is presented. The finite sample distribution of the test is derived under alternative decisions regarding the deterministic terms employed. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the newly proposed ML t-test is shown to exhibit incre...

  10. Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

  11. Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

  12. Arnold tongues and the Devil's Staircase in a discrete-time Hindmarsh–Rose neuron model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Felicio, Carolini C., E-mail: carolini.cf@gmail.com; Rech, Paulo C., E-mail: paulo.rech@udesc.br

    2015-11-06

    We investigate a three-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system, described by a three-dimensional map derived from a continuous-time Hindmarsh–Rose neuron model by the forward Euler method. For a fixed integration step size, we report a two-dimensional parameter-space for this system, where periodic structures, the so-called Arnold tongues, can be seen with periods organized in a Farey tree sequence. We also report possible modifications in this parameter-space, as a function of the integration step size. - Highlights: • We investigate the parameter-space of a particular 3D map. • Periodic structures, namely Arnold tongues, can be seen there. • They are organized in a Farey tree sequence. • The map was derived from a continuous-time Hindmarsh–Rose neuron model. • The forward Euler method was used for such purpose.

  13. The complete treatment of the time evolution in the case of a discretized atom-field interaction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seke, J.; Adam, G.; Soldatov, A.V.; Bogolubov, N.N.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The dynamics of a discretized atom-field interaction model with a physically relevant form factor is analyzed. It is shown that after some short time interval only a small fraction of eigenvalues and eigenstates (belonging to the close vicinity of the excited atomic state energy E=ω 0 /2) contributes to the nondecay probability amplitudes in the long-time regime, whereas the contribution of all other eigenstates and eigenvalues is negligible. Nevertheless, to describe correctly the non-Markovian dynamics in the short-time regime the contribution of all eigenstates and eigenvalues must be taken into account. (author)

  14. A Discrete Model for HIV Infection with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brahim EL Boukari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We give a consistent discretization of a continuous model of HIV infection, with distributed time delays to express the lag between the times when the virus enters a cell and when the cell becomes infected. The global stability of the steady states of the model is determined and numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.

  15. Discrete-time nonlinear sliding mode controller

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Keywords: Discrete-time delay system, Sliding mode control, nonlinear sliding ... of engineering systems such as chemical process control, delay in the actuator ...... instrumentation from Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology (MNNIT),.

  16. The ITER Management Advisory Committee (MAC) meeting in Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, M.

    1999-01-01

    The ITER management advisory committee meeting was held on 22-23 July 1999 in Garching, Germany. The main topics were the ITER EDA status, task status summary and work program, joint fund, information technology needs at the ITER joint work sites, the disposition of R and D components and a schedule of ITER meetings

  17. Distinct timing mechanisms produce discrete and continuous movements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul Huys

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The differentiation of discrete and continuous movement is one of the pillars of motor behavior classification. Discrete movements have a definite beginning and end, whereas continuous movements do not have such discriminable end points. In the past decade there has been vigorous debate whether this classification implies different control processes. This debate up until the present has been empirically based. Here, we present an unambiguous non-empirical classification based on theorems in dynamical system theory that sets discrete and continuous movements apart. Through computational simulations of representative modes of each class and topological analysis of the flow in state space, we show that distinct control mechanisms underwrite discrete and fast rhythmic movements. In particular, we demonstrate that discrete movements require a time keeper while fast rhythmic movements do not. We validate our computational findings experimentally using a behavioral paradigm in which human participants performed finger flexion-extension movements at various movement paces and under different instructions. Our results demonstrate that the human motor system employs different timing control mechanisms (presumably via differential recruitment of neural subsystems to accomplish varying behavioral functions such as speed constraints.

  18. Current density and continuity in discretized models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boykin, Timothy B; Luisier, Mathieu; Klimeck, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    Discrete approaches have long been used in numerical modelling of physical systems in both research and teaching. Discrete versions of the Schroedinger equation employing either one or several basis functions per mesh point are often used by senior undergraduates and beginning graduate students in computational physics projects. In studying discrete models, students can encounter conceptual difficulties with the representation of the current and its divergence because different finite-difference expressions, all of which reduce to the current density in the continuous limit, measure different physical quantities. Understanding these different discrete currents is essential and requires a careful analysis of the current operator, the divergence of the current and the continuity equation. Here we develop point forms of the current and its divergence valid for an arbitrary mesh and basis. We show that in discrete models currents exist only along lines joining atomic sites (or mesh points). Using these results, we derive a discrete analogue of the divergence theorem and demonstrate probability conservation in a purely localized-basis approach.

  19. Discrete vapour cavity model with improved timing of opening and collapse of cavities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergant, A.; Tijsseling, A.S.; Vítkovský, J.P.; Simpson, A.R.; Lambert, M.F.

    2007-01-01

    Transient vaporous cavitation occurs in hydraulic piping systems when the liquid pressure falls to the vapour pressure. Cavitation may occur as a localized vapour cavity (large void fraction) or as distributed vaporous cavitation (small void fraction). The discrete vapour cavity model (DVCM) with

  20. Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio: Using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH-EVT-Copula model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zong-Run; Chen, Xiao-Hong; Jin, Yan-Bo; Zhou, Yan-Ju

    2010-11-01

    This paper introduces GARCH-EVT-Copula model and applies it to study the risk of foreign exchange portfolio. Multivariate Copulas, including Gaussian, t and Clayton ones, were used to describe a portfolio risk structure, and to extend the analysis from a bivariate to an n-dimensional asset allocation problem. We apply this methodology to study the returns of a portfolio of four major foreign currencies in China, including USD, EUR, JPY and HKD. Our results suggest that the optimal investment allocations are similar across different Copulas and confidence levels. In addition, we find that the optimal investment concentrates on the USD investment. Generally speaking, t Copula and Clayton Copula better portray the correlation structure of multiple assets than Normal Copula.

  1. Three-dimensional discrete-time Lotka-Volterra models with an application to industrial clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischi, G. I.; Tramontana, F.

    2010-10-01

    We consider a three-dimensional discrete dynamical system that describes an application to economics of a generalization of the Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. The dynamic model proposed is used to describe the interactions among industrial clusters (or districts), following a suggestion given by [23]. After studying some local and global properties and bifurcations in bidimensional Lotka-Volterra maps, by numerical explorations we show how some of them can be extended to their three-dimensional counterparts, even if their analytic and geometric characterization becomes much more difficult and challenging. We also show a global bifurcation of the three-dimensional system that has no two-dimensional analogue. Besides the particular economic application considered, the study of the discrete version of Lotka-Volterra dynamical systems turns out to be a quite rich and interesting topic by itself, i.e. from a purely mathematical point of view.

  2. Dynamics of continuous-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses and their discrete counterparts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Haifeng; Li Wantong

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the global stability characteristics of a system of equations modelling the dynamics of continuous-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a unique equilibrium and its exponential stability of the networks are obtained. For the goal of computation, discrete-time analogues of the corresponding continuous-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses are also formulated and studied. Our results show that the above continuous-time and discrete-time systems with impulses preserve the dynamics of the networks without impulses when we make some modifications and impose some additional conditions on the systems, the convergence characteristics dynamics of the networks are preserved by both continuous-time and discrete-time systems with some restriction imposed on the impulse effect.

  3. Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

  4. Local discrete symmetries from superstring derived models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faraggi, A.E.

    1996-10-01

    Discrete and global symmetries play an essential role in many extensions of the Standard Model, for example, to preserve the proton lifetime, to prevent flavor changing neutral currents, etc. An important question is how can such symmetries survive in a theory of quantum gravity, like superstring theory. In a specific string model the author illustrates how local discrete symmetries may arise in string models and play an important role in preventing fast proton decay and flavor changing neutral currents. The local discrete symmetry arises due to the breaking of the non-Abelian gauge symmetries by Wilson lines in the superstring models and forbids, for example dimension five operators which mediate rapid proton decay, to all orders of nonrenormalizable terms. In the context of models of unification of the gauge and gravitational interactions, it is precisely this type of local discrete symmetries that must be found in order to insure that a given model is not in conflict with experimental observations

  5. Chaotic properties between the nonintegrable discrete nonlinear Schroedinger equation and a nonintegrable discrete Heisenberg model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Qing

    2007-01-01

    We prove that the integrable-nonintegrable discrete nonlinear Schroedinger equation (AL-DNLS) introduced by Cai, Bishop and Gronbech-Jensen (Phys. Rev. Lett. 72 591(1994)) is the discrete gauge equivalent to an integrable-nonintegrable discrete Heisenberg model from the geometric point of view. Then we study whether the transmission and bifurcation properties of the AL-DNLS equation are preserved under the action of discrete gauge transformations. Our results reveal that the transmission property of the AL-DNLS equation is completely preserved and the bifurcation property is conditionally preserved to those of the integrable-nonintegrable discrete Heisenberg model

  6. A new doubly discrete analogue of smoke ring flow and the real time simulation of fluid flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinkall, Ulrich; Springborn, Boris; Weissmann, Steffen

    2007-01-01

    Modelling incompressible ideal fluids as a finite collection of vortex filaments is important in physics (super-fluidity, models for the onset of turbulence) as well as for numerical algorithms used in computer graphics for the real time simulation of smoke. Here we introduce a time-discrete evolution equation for arbitrary closed polygons in 3-space that is a discretization of the localized induction approximation of filament motion. This discretization shares with its continuum limit the property that it is a completely integrable system. We apply this polygon evolution to a significant improvement of the numerical algorithms used in computer graphics

  7. Output-Feedback Control for Discrete-Time Spreading Models in Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Alarcón Ramos

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of stabilizing the spreading process to a prescribed probability distribution over a complex network is considered, where the dynamics of the nodes in the network is given by discrete-time Markov-chain processes. Conditions for the positioning and identification of actuators and sensors are provided, and sufficient conditions for the exponential stability of the desired distribution are derived. Simulations results for a network of N = 10 6 corroborate our theoretical findings.

  8. Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

  9. Rational solutions of the discrete time Toda lattice and the alternate discrete Painleve II equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Common, Alan K; Hone, Andrew N W

    2008-01-01

    The Yablonskii-Vorob'ev polynomials y n (t), which are defined by a second-order bilinear differential-difference equation, provide rational solutions of the Toda lattice. They are also polynomial tau-functions for the rational solutions of the second Painleve equation (P II ). Here we define two-variable polynomials Y n (t, h) on a lattice with spacing h, by considering rational solutions of the discrete time Toda lattice as introduced by Suris. These polynomials are shown to have many properties that are analogous to those of the Yablonskii-Vorob'ev polynomials, to which they reduce when h = 0. They also provide rational solutions for a particular discretization of P II , namely the so-called alternate discrete P II , and this connection leads to an expression in terms of the Umemura polynomials for the third Painleve equation (P III ). It is shown that the Baecklund transformation for the alternate discrete Painleve equation is a symplectic map, and the shift in time is also symplectic. Finally we present a Lax pair for the alternate discrete P II , which recovers Jimbo and Miwa's Lax pair for P II in the continuum limit h → 0

  10. Averaged multivalued solutions and time discretization for conservation laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenier, Y.

    1985-01-01

    It is noted that the correct shock solutions can be approximated by averaging in some sense the multivalued solution given by the method of characteristics for the nonlinear scalar conservation law (NSCL). A time discretization for the NSCL equation based on this principle is considered. An equivalent analytical formulation is shown to lead quite easily to a convergence result, and a third formulation is introduced which can be generalized for the systems of conservation laws. Various numerical schemes are constructed from the proposed time discretization. The first family of schemes is obtained by using a spatial grid and projecting the results of the time discretization. Many known schemes are then recognized (mainly schemes by Osher, Roe, and LeVeque). A second way to discretize leads to a particle scheme without space grid, which is very efficient (at least in the scalar case). Finally, a close relationship between the proposed method and the Boltzmann type schemes is established. 14 references

  11. Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time and Discrete-Time Quaternion-Valued Neural Networks With Linear Threshold Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaofeng; Song, Qiankun; Li, Zhongshan; Zhao, Zhenjiang; Liu, Yurong

    2018-07-01

    This paper addresses the problem of stability for continuous-time and discrete-time quaternion-valued neural networks (QVNNs) with linear threshold neurons. Applying the semidiscretization technique to the continuous-time QVNNs, the discrete-time analogs are obtained, which preserve the dynamical characteristics of their continuous-time counterparts. Via the plural decomposition method of quaternion, homeomorphic mapping theorem, as well as Lyapunov theorem, some sufficient conditions on the existence, uniqueness, and global asymptotical stability of the equilibrium point are derived for the continuous-time QVNNs and their discrete-time analogs, respectively. Furthermore, a uniform sufficient condition on the existence, uniqueness, and global asymptotical stability of the equilibrium point is obtained for both continuous-time QVNNs and their discrete-time version. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  12. Formal methods for discrete-time dynamical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Belta, Calin; Aydin Gol, Ebru

    2017-01-01

    This book bridges fundamental gaps between control theory and formal methods. Although it focuses on discrete-time linear and piecewise affine systems, it also provides general frameworks for abstraction, analysis, and control of more general models. The book is self-contained, and while some mathematical knowledge is necessary, readers are not expected to have a background in formal methods or control theory. It rigorously defines concepts from formal methods, such as transition systems, temporal logics, model checking and synthesis. It then links these to the infinite state dynamical systems through abstractions that are intuitive and only require basic convex-analysis and control-theory terminology, which is provided in the appendix. Several examples and illustrations help readers understand and visualize the concepts introduced throughout the book.

  13. Discrete time-crystalline order in black diamond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hengyun; Choi, Soonwon; Choi, Joonhee; Landig, Renate; Kucsko, Georg; Isoya, Junichi; Jelezko, Fedor; Onoda, Shinobu; Sumiya, Hitoshi; Khemani, Vedika; von Keyserlingk, Curt; Yao, Norman; Demler, Eugene; Lukin, Mikhail D.

    2017-04-01

    The interplay of periodic driving, disorder, and strong interactions has recently been predicted to result in exotic ``time-crystalline'' phases, which spontaneously break the discrete time-translation symmetry of the underlying drive. Here, we report the experimental observation of such discrete time-crystalline order in a driven, disordered ensemble of 106 dipolar spin impurities in diamond at room-temperature. We observe long-lived temporal correlations at integer multiples of the fundamental driving period, experimentally identify the phase boundary and find that the temporal order is protected by strong interactions; this order is remarkably stable against perturbations, even in the presence of slow thermalization. Our work opens the door to exploring dynamical phases of matter and controlling interacting, disordered many-body systems.

  14. Discretization-dependent model for weakly connected excitable media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo, Pedro André; Alonso, Sergio; Weber dos Santos, Rodrigo

    2018-03-01

    Pattern formation has been widely observed in extended chemical and biological processes. Although the biochemical systems are highly heterogeneous, homogenized continuum approaches formed by partial differential equations have been employed frequently. Such approaches are usually justified by the difference of scales between the heterogeneities and the characteristic spatial size of the patterns. Under different conditions, for example, under weak coupling, discrete models are more adequate. However, discrete models may be less manageable, for instance, in terms of numerical implementation and mesh generation, than the associated continuum models. Here we study a model to approach discreteness which permits the computer implementation on general unstructured meshes. The model is cast as a partial differential equation but with a parameter that depends not only on heterogeneities sizes, as in the case of quasicontinuum models, but also on the discretization mesh. Therefore, we refer to it as a discretization-dependent model. We validate the approach in a generic excitable media that simulates three different phenomena: the propagation of action membrane potential in cardiac tissue, in myelinated axons of neurons, and concentration waves in chemical microemulsions.

  15. Adaptive interpolation of discrete-time signals that can be modeled as autoregressive processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.J.E.M.; Veldhuis, R.N.J.; Vries, L.B.

    1986-01-01

    The authors present an adaptive algorithm for the restoration of lost sample values in discrete-time signals that can locally be described by means of autoregressive processes. The only restrictions are that the positions of the unknown samples should be known and that they should be embedded in a

  16. Adaptive interpolation of discrete-time signals that can be modeled as autoregressive processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.J.E.M.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Vries, Lodewijk B.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents an adaptive algorithm for the restoration of lost sample values in discrete-time signals that can locally be described by means of autoregressive processes. The only restrictions are that the positions of the unknown samples should be known and that they should be embedded in a

  17. Discrete-Time Filter Synthesis using Product of Gegenbauer Polynomials

    OpenAIRE

    N. Stojanovic; N. Stamenkovic; I. Krstic

    2016-01-01

    A new approximation to design continuoustime and discrete-time low-pass filters, presented in this paper, based on the product of Gegenbauer polynomials, provides the ability of more flexible adjustment of passband and stopband responses. The design is achieved taking into account a prescribed specification, leading to a better trade-off among the magnitude and group delay responses. Many well-known continuous-time and discrete-time transitional filter based on the classical polynomial approx...

  18. Finite approximations in discrete-time stochastic control quantized models and asymptotic optimality

    CERN Document Server

    Saldi, Naci; Yüksel, Serdar

    2018-01-01

    In a unified form, this monograph presents fundamental results on the approximation of centralized and decentralized stochastic control problems, with uncountable state, measurement, and action spaces. It demonstrates how quantization provides a system-independent and constructive method for the reduction of a system with Borel spaces to one with finite state, measurement, and action spaces. In addition to this constructive view, the book considers both the information transmission approach for discretization of actions, and the computational approach for discretization of states and actions. Part I of the text discusses Markov decision processes and their finite-state or finite-action approximations, while Part II builds from there to finite approximations in decentralized stochastic control problems. This volume is perfect for researchers and graduate students interested in stochastic controls. With the tools presented, readers will be able to establish the convergence of approximation models to original mo...

  19. Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

    2016-03-01

    We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

  20. The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, William J; Steele, Fiona; Golalizadeh, Mousa; Green, Martin J

    2009-06-01

    We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.

  1. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium attractors for a discrete, selection-migration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

    2003-01-01

    This study presents a discrete-time model for the effects of selection and immigration on the demographic and genetic compositions of a population. Under biologically reasonable conditions, it is shown that the model always has an equilibrium. Although equilibria for similar models without migration must have real eigenvalues, for this selection-migration model we...

  2. Stochastic nonlinear time series forecasting using time-delay reservoir computers: performance and universality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigoryeva, Lyudmila; Henriques, Julie; Larger, Laurent; Ortega, Juan-Pablo

    2014-07-01

    Reservoir computing is a recently introduced machine learning paradigm that has already shown excellent performances in the processing of empirical data. We study a particular kind of reservoir computers called time-delay reservoirs that are constructed out of the sampling of the solution of a time-delay differential equation and show their good performance in the forecasting of the conditional covariances associated to multivariate discrete-time nonlinear stochastic processes of VEC-GARCH type as well as in the prediction of factual daily market realized volatilities computed with intraday quotes, using as training input daily log-return series of moderate size. We tackle some problems associated to the lack of task-universality for individually operating reservoirs and propose a solution based on the use of parallel arrays of time-delay reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T.; Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL -1 ]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT -1 ]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and statistical

  4. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T. [Golder Associates Inc., Seattle (United States); Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan [Golder Grundteknik KB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL{sup -1}]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT{sup -1}]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and

  5. Nonlinear Estimation of Discrete-Time Signals Under Random Observation Delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caballero-Aguila, R.; Jimenez-Lopez, J. D.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.; Linares-Perez, J.; Nakamori, S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an approximation to the nonlinear least-squares estimation problem of discrete-time stochastic signals using nonlinear observations with additive white noise which can be randomly delayed by one sampling time. The observation delay is modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables whose values, zero or one, indicate that the real observation arrives on time or it is delayed and, hence, the available measurement to estimate the signal is not up-to-date. Assuming that the state-space model generating the signal is unknown and only the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are ready for use, a filtering algorithm based on linear approximations of the real observations is proposed.

  6. Sampling rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitelam, Stephen

    2018-03-01

    We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate functions (and upper bounds on such functions) for dynamical quantities extensive in the length of the Markov chain. We illustrate the method using a series of simple examples, and use it to study the fluctuations of a lattice-based model of active matter that can undergo motility-induced phase separation.

  7. Discrete approximations to vector spin models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Enter, Aernout C D [University of Groningen, Johann Bernoulli Institute of Mathematics and Computing Science, Postbus 407, 9700 AK Groningen (Netherlands); Kuelske, Christof [Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum, Fakultaet fuer Mathematik, D44801 Bochum (Germany); Opoku, Alex A, E-mail: A.C.D.v.Enter@math.rug.nl, E-mail: Christof.Kuelske@ruhr-uni-bochum.de, E-mail: opoku@math.leidenuniv.nl [Mathematisch Instituut, Universiteit Leiden, Postbus 9512, 2300 RA, Leiden (Netherlands)

    2011-11-25

    We strengthen a result from Kuelske and Opoku (2008 Electron. J. Probab. 13 1307-44) on the existence of effective interactions for discretized continuous-spin models. We also point out that such an interaction cannot exist at very low temperatures. Moreover, we compare two ways of discretizing continuous-spin models, and show that except for very low temperatures, they behave similarly in two dimensions. We also discuss some possibilities in higher dimensions. (paper)

  8. Discrete approximations to vector spin models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Enter, Aernout C D; Külske, Christof; Opoku, Alex A

    2011-01-01

    We strengthen a result from Külske and Opoku (2008 Electron. J. Probab. 13 1307–44) on the existence of effective interactions for discretized continuous-spin models. We also point out that such an interaction cannot exist at very low temperatures. Moreover, we compare two ways of discretizing continuous-spin models, and show that except for very low temperatures, they behave similarly in two dimensions. We also discuss some possibilities in higher dimensions. (paper)

  9. A fast iterative model for discrete velocity calculations on triangular grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szalmas, Lajos; Valougeorgis, Dimitris

    2010-01-01

    A fast synthetic type iterative model is proposed to speed up the slow convergence of discrete velocity algorithms for solving linear kinetic equations on triangular lattices. The efficiency of the scheme is verified both theoretically by a discrete Fourier stability analysis and computationally by solving a rarefied gas flow problem. The stability analysis of the discrete kinetic equations yields the spectral radius of the typical and the proposed iterative algorithms and reveal the drastically improved performance of the latter one for any grid resolution. This is the first time that stability analysis of the full discrete kinetic equations related to rarefied gas theory is formulated, providing the detailed dependency of the iteration scheme on the discretization parameters in the phase space. The corresponding characteristics of the model deduced by solving numerically the rarefied gas flow through a duct with triangular cross section are in complete agreement with the theoretical findings. The proposed approach may open a way for fast computation of rarefied gas flows on complex geometries in the whole range of gas rarefaction including the hydrodynamic regime.

  10. Design of a Discrete Tracking Controller for a Magnetic Levitation System: A Nonlinear Rational Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Gómez-Salas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a discrete-time nonlinear rational approximate model for the unstable magnetic levitation system. Based on this model and as an application of the input-output linearization technique, a discrete-time tracking control design will be derived using the corresponding classical state space representation of the model. A simulation example illustrates the efficiency of the proposed methodology.

  11. Mittag-Leffler function for discrete fractional modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Cheng Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available From the difference equations on discrete time scales, this paper numerically investigates one discrete fractional difference equation in the Caputo delta’s sense which has an explicit solution in form of the discrete Mittag-Leffler function. The exact numerical values of the solutions are given in comparison with the truncated Mittag-Leffler function.

  12. A Discrete-Time Queue with Balking, Reneging, and Working Vacations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veena Goswami

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of balking and reneging in finite-buffer discrete-time single server queue with single and multiple working vacations. An arriving customer may balk with a probability or renege after joining according to a geometric distribution. The server works with different service rates rather than completely stopping the service during a vacation period. The service times during a busy period, vacation period, and vacation times are assumed to be geometrically distributed. We find the explicit expressions for the stationary state probabilities. Various system performance measures and a cost model to determine the optimal service rates are presented. Moreover, some queueing models presented in the literature are derived as special cases of our model. Finally, the influence of various parameters on the performance characteristics is shown numerically.

  13. Long-time behaviour of discretizations of the simple pendulum equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cieslinski, Jan L [Uniwersytet w Bialymstoku, Wydzial Fizyki, ul. Lipowa 41, 15-424 Bialystok (Poland); Ratkiewicz, Boguslaw [Doctoral Studies, Wydzial Fizyki, Uniwersytet Adama Mickiewicza, Poznan (Poland)], E-mail: janek@alpha.uwb.edu.pl, E-mail: bograt@poczta.onet.pl

    2009-03-13

    We compare several discretizations of the simple pendulum equation in a series of numerical experiments. The stress is put on the long-time behaviour. The chosen numerical schemes are either symplectic maps or integrable (energy-preserving) maps, or both. Therefore, they preserve qualitative features of solutions (such as periodicity). We describe characteristic periodic time dependences of numerical estimates of the period and the amplitude, and explain them as systematic numerical by-effects produced by any method. Finally, we propose a new numerical scheme which is a modification of the discrete gradient method. This modified discrete gradient method preserves (almost exactly) the period of small oscillations for any time step.

  14. Long-time behaviour of discretizations of the simple pendulum equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cieslinski, Jan L; Ratkiewicz, Boguslaw

    2009-01-01

    We compare several discretizations of the simple pendulum equation in a series of numerical experiments. The stress is put on the long-time behaviour. The chosen numerical schemes are either symplectic maps or integrable (energy-preserving) maps, or both. Therefore, they preserve qualitative features of solutions (such as periodicity). We describe characteristic periodic time dependences of numerical estimates of the period and the amplitude, and explain them as systematic numerical by-effects produced by any method. Finally, we propose a new numerical scheme which is a modification of the discrete gradient method. This modified discrete gradient method preserves (almost exactly) the period of small oscillations for any time step

  15. On the application of Discrete Time Optimal Control Concepts to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the application of Discrete Time Optimal Control Concepts to Economic Problems. ... Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics ... Abstract. An extension of the use of the maximum principle to solve Discrete-time Optimal Control Problems (DTOCP), in which the state equations are in the form of general ...

  16. Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2006-01-01

    Forecasts of oil price volatility are important inputs into macroeconometric models, financial market risk assessment calculations like value at risk, and option pricing formulas for futures contracts. This paper uses several different univariate and multivariate statistical models to estimate forecasts of daily volatility in petroleum futures price returns. The out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated using forecast accuracy tests and market timing tests. The TGARCH model fits well for heating oil and natural gas volatility and the GARCH model fits well for crude oil and unleaded gasoline volatility. Simple moving average models seem to fit well in some cases provided the correct order is chosen. Despite the increased complexity, models like state space, vector autoregression and bivariate GARCH do not perform as well as the single equation GARCH model. Most models out perform a random walk and there is evidence of market timing. Parametric and non-parametric value at risk measures are calculated and compared. Non-parametric models outperform the parametric models in terms of number of exceedences in backtests. These results are useful for anyone needing forecasts of petroleum futures volatility. (author)

  17. Direct output feedback control of discrete-time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.C.; Chung, L.L.; Lu, K.H.

    1993-01-01

    An optimal direct output feedback control algorithm is developed for discrete-time systems with the consideration of time delay in control force action. Optimal constant output feedback gains are obtained through variational process such that certain prescribed quadratic performance index is minimized. Discrete-time control forces are then calculated from the multiplication of output measurements by these pre-calculated feedback gains. According to the proposed algorithm, structural system is assured to remain stable even in the presence of time delay. The number of sensors and controllers may be very small as compared with the dimension of states. Numerical results show that direct velocity feedback control is more sensitive to time delay than state feedback but, is still quite effective in reducing the dynamic responses under earthquake excitation. (author)

  18. IPP Max Planck Institute of Plasma of Physics at Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The cost accounting system of the IPP Max Planck Institute of Plasma Physics at Garching is described with all details as there are cost class accounting, cost centers, cost units and resulting overall cost summary. Detailed instructions are given about the implementation of this cost accounting system into the organisational structure of the IPP. (A.N.)

  19. An Improved Global Harmony Search Algorithm for the Identification of Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems Based on Volterra Filter Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongyan Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an improved global harmony search (IGHS algorithm for identifying the nonlinear discrete-time systems based on second-order Volterra model. The IGHS is an improved version of the novel global harmony search (NGHS algorithm, and it makes two significant improvements on the NGHS. First, the genetic mutation operation is modified by combining normal distribution and Cauchy distribution, which enables the IGHS to fully explore and exploit the solution space. Second, an opposition-based learning (OBL is introduced and modified to improve the quality of harmony vectors. The IGHS algorithm is implemented on two numerical examples, and they are nonlinear discrete-time rational system and the real heat exchanger, respectively. The results of the IGHS are compared with those of the other three methods, and it has been verified to be more effective than the other three methods on solving the above two problems with different input signals and system memory sizes.

  20. H∞ Filtering for Discrete Markov Jump Singular Systems with Mode-Dependent Time Delay Based on T-S Fuzzy Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Gong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the H∞ filtering problem of discrete singular Markov jump systems (SMJSs with mode-dependent time delay based on T-S fuzzy model. First, by Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach, a delay-dependent sufficient condition on H∞-disturbance attenuation is presented, in which both stability and prescribed H∞ performance are required to be achieved for the filtering-error systems. Then, based on the condition, the delay-dependent H∞ filter design scheme for SMJSs with mode-dependent time delay based on T-S fuzzy model is developed in term of linear matrix inequality (LMI. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the result.

  1. Synchronization of discrete-time spatiotemporal chaos via adaptive fuzzy control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Yueju; Yang Shiyuan

    2003-01-01

    A discrete-time adaptive fuzzy control scheme is presented to synchronize model-unknown coupled Henon-map lattices (CHMLs). The proposed method is robust to approximate errors, parameter mismatches and disturbances, because it integrates the merits of the adaptive fuzzy systems and the variable structure control with a sector. The simulation results of synchronization of CHMLs show that it not only can synchronize model-unknown CHMLs but also is robust against parameter mismatches and noise of the systems. These merits are advantageous for engineering realization

  2. Synchronization of discrete-time spatiotemporal chaos via adaptive fuzzy control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue Yueju E-mail: xueyj@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; Yang Shiyuan E-mail: ysy-dau@tsinghua.edu.cn

    2003-08-01

    A discrete-time adaptive fuzzy control scheme is presented to synchronize model-unknown coupled Henon-map lattices (CHMLs). The proposed method is robust to approximate errors, parameter mismatches and disturbances, because it integrates the merits of the adaptive fuzzy systems and the variable structure control with a sector. The simulation results of synchronization of CHMLs show that it not only can synchronize model-unknown CHMLs but also is robust against parameter mismatches and noise of the systems. These merits are advantageous for engineering realization.

  3. Adaptive Control and Function Projective Synchronization in 2D Discrete-Time Chaotic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yin; Chen Yong; Li Biao

    2009-01-01

    This study addresses the adaptive control and function projective synchronization problems between 2D Rulkov discrete-time system and Network discrete-time system. Based on backstepping design with three controllers, a systematic, concrete and automatic scheme is developed to investigate the function projective synchronization of discrete-time chaotic systems. In addition, the adaptive control function is applied to achieve the state synchronization of two discrete-time systems. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

  4. Discrete-Time Filter Synthesis using Product of Gegenbauer Polynomials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Stojanovic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A new approximation to design continuoustime and discrete-time low-pass filters, presented in this paper, based on the product of Gegenbauer polynomials, provides the ability of more flexible adjustment of passband and stopband responses. The design is achieved taking into account a prescribed specification, leading to a better trade-off among the magnitude and group delay responses. Many well-known continuous-time and discrete-time transitional filter based on the classical polynomial approximations(Chebyshev, Legendre, Butterworth are shown to be a special cases of proposed approximation method.

  5. Discrete-Time Pricing and Optimal Exercise of American Perpetual Warrants in the Geometric Random Walk Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderbei, Robert J.; Pınar, Mustafa Ç.; Bozkaya, Efe B.

    2013-01-01

    An American option (or, warrant) is the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell an underlying equity at any time up to a predetermined expiration date for a predetermined amount. A perpetual American option differs from a plain American option in that it does not expire. In this study, we solve the optimal stopping problem of a perpetual American option (both call and put) in discrete time using linear programming duality. Under the assumption that the underlying stock price follows a discrete time and discrete state Markov process, namely a geometric random walk, we formulate the pricing problem as an infinite dimensional linear programming (LP) problem using the excessive-majorant property of the value function. This formulation allows us to solve complementary slackness conditions in closed-form, revealing an optimal stopping strategy which highlights the set of stock-prices where the option should be exercised. The analysis for the call option reveals that such a critical value exists only in some cases, depending on a combination of state-transition probabilities and the economic discount factor (i.e., the prevailing interest rate) whereas it ceases to be an issue for the put.

  6. Discrete-Time Pricing and Optimal Exercise of American Perpetual Warrants in the Geometric Random Walk Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderbei, Robert J., E-mail: rvdb@princeton.edu [Princeton University, Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering (United States); P Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I nar, Mustafa C., E-mail: mustafap@bilkent.edu.tr [Bilkent University, Department of Industrial Engineering (Turkey); Bozkaya, Efe B. [Sabanc Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I University, Faculty of Administrative Sciences (Turkey)

    2013-02-15

    An American option (or, warrant) is the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell an underlying equity at any time up to a predetermined expiration date for a predetermined amount. A perpetual American option differs from a plain American option in that it does not expire. In this study, we solve the optimal stopping problem of a perpetual American option (both call and put) in discrete time using linear programming duality. Under the assumption that the underlying stock price follows a discrete time and discrete state Markov process, namely a geometric random walk, we formulate the pricing problem as an infinite dimensional linear programming (LP) problem using the excessive-majorant property of the value function. This formulation allows us to solve complementary slackness conditions in closed-form, revealing an optimal stopping strategy which highlights the set of stock-prices where the option should be exercised. The analysis for the call option reveals that such a critical value exists only in some cases, depending on a combination of state-transition probabilities and the economic discount factor (i.e., the prevailing interest rate) whereas it ceases to be an issue for the put.

  7. Model documentation for relations between continuous real-time and discrete water-quality constituents in Cheney Reservoir near Cheney, Kansas, 2001--2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Mandy L.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Gatotho, Jackline W.

    2013-01-01

    Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary water supplies for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated a continuous real-time water-quality monitoring station in Cheney Reservoir since 2001; continuously measured physicochemical properties include specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, fluorescence (wavelength range 650 to 700 nanometers; estimate of total chlorophyll), and reservoir elevation. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 2001 through 2009 and analyzed for sediment, nutrients, taste-and-odor compounds, cyanotoxins, phytoplankton community composition, actinomycetes bacteria, and other water-quality measures. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physicochemical properties to compute concentrations of constituents that are not easily measured in real time. The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because it allows quantification and characterization of potential constituents of concern in Cheney Reservoir. This report updates linear regression models published in 2006 that were based on data collected during 2001 through 2003. The update uses discrete and continuous data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. Updated models to compute dissolved solids, sodium, chloride, and suspended solids were similar to previously published models. However, several other updated models changed substantially from previously published models. In addition to updating relations that were previously developed, models also were developed for four new constituents, including magnesium, dissolved phosphorus, actinomycetes bacteria, and the cyanotoxin microcystin. In addition, a conversion factor of 0.74 was established to convert the Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI) model 6026 turbidity sensor measurements to the newer YSI

  8. Can time be a discrete dynamical variable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    The possibility that time can be regarded as a discrete dynamical variable is examined through all phases of mechanics: from classical mechanics to nonrelativistic quantum mechanics, and to relativistic quantum field theories. (orig.)

  9. Testing constancy of unconditional variance in volatility models by misspecification and specification tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    The topic of this paper is testing the hypothesis of constant unconditional variance in GARCH models against the alternative that the unconditional variance changes deterministically over time. Tests of this hypothesis have previously been performed as misspecification tests after fitting a GARCH...... models. An application to exchange rate returns is included....

  10. Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania

    2012-01-01

    Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

  11. Discrete time analysis of a repairable machine

    OpenAIRE

    Alfa, Attahiru Sule; Castro, I. T.

    2002-01-01

    We consider, in discrete time, a single machine system that operates for a period of time represented by a general distribution. This machine is subject to failures during operations and the occurrence of these failures depends on how many times the machine has previously failed. Some failures are repairable and the repair times may or may not depend on the number of times the machine was previously repaired. Repair times also have a general distribution. The operating times...

  12. Distributed-observer-based cooperative control for synchronization of linear discrete-time multi-agent systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hongjing; Zhang, Huaguang; Wang, Zhanshan

    2015-11-01

    This paper considers output synchronization of discrete-time multi-agent systems with directed communication topologies. The directed communication graph contains a spanning tree and the exosystem as its root. Distributed observer-based consensus protocols are proposed, based on the relative outputs of neighboring agents. A multi-step algorithm is presented to construct the observer-based protocols. In light of the discrete-time algebraic Riccati equation and internal model principle, synchronization problem is completed. At last, numerical simulation is provided to verify the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling biological tissue growth: discrete to continuum representations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hywood, Jack D; Hackett-Jones, Emily J; Landman, Kerry A

    2013-09-01

    There is much interest in building deterministic continuum models from discrete agent-based models governed by local stochastic rules where an agent represents a biological cell. In developmental biology, cells are able to move and undergo cell division on and within growing tissues. A growing tissue is itself made up of cells which undergo cell division, thereby providing a significant transport mechanism for other cells within it. We develop a discrete agent-based model where domain agents represent tissue cells. Each agent has the ability to undergo a proliferation event whereby an additional domain agent is incorporated into the lattice. If a probability distribution describes the waiting times between proliferation events for an individual agent, then the total length of the domain is a random variable. The average behavior of these stochastically proliferating agents defining the growing lattice is determined in terms of a Fokker-Planck equation, with an advection and diffusion term. The diffusion term differs from the one obtained Landman and Binder [J. Theor. Biol. 259, 541 (2009)] when the rate of growth of the domain is specified, but the choice of agents is random. This discrepancy is reconciled by determining a discrete-time master equation for this process and an associated asymmetric nonexclusion random walk, together with consideration of synchronous and asynchronous updating schemes. All theoretical results are confirmed with numerical simulations. This study furthers our understanding of the relationship between agent-based rules, their implementation, and their associated partial differential equations. Since tissue growth is a significant cellular transport mechanism during embryonic growth, it is important to use the correct partial differential equation description when combining with other cellular functions.

  14. Time-delay analyzer with continuous discretization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayatyan, G.L.; Darbinyan, K.T.; Mkrtchyan, K.K.; Stepanyan, S.S.

    1988-01-01

    A time-delay analyzer is described which when triggered by a start pulse of adjustable duration performs continuous discretization of the analyzed signal within nearly 22 ns time intervals, the recording in a memory unit with following slow read-out of the information to the computer and its processing. The time-delay analyzer consists of four CAMAC-VECTOR systems of unit width. With its help one can separate comparatively short, small-amplitude rare signals against the background of quasistationary noise processes. 4 refs.; 3 figs

  15. A New Approach to Rational Discrete-Time Approximations to Continuous-Time Fractional-Order Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Matos , Carlos; Ortigueira , Manuel ,

    2012-01-01

    Part 10: Signal Processing; International audience; In this paper a new approach to rational discrete-time approximations to continuous fractional-order systems of the form 1/(sα+p) is proposed. We will show that such fractional-order LTI system can be decomposed into sub-systems. One has the classic behavior and the other is similar to a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) system. The conversion from continuous-time to discrete-time systems will be done using the Laplace transform inversion integr...

  16. Exponential stability of continuous-time and discrete-time bidirectional associative memory networks with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Jinling; Cao Jinde

    2004-01-01

    First, convergence of continuous-time Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks are studied. By using Lyapunov functionals and some analysis technique, the delay-independent sufficient conditions are obtained for the networks to converge exponentially toward the equilibrium associated with the constant input sources. Second, discrete-time analogues of the continuous-time BAM networks are formulated and studied. It is shown that the convergence characteristics of the continuous-time systems are preserved by the discrete-time analogues without any restriction imposed on the uniform discretionary step size. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results

  17. Discrete Events as Units of Perceived Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liverence, Brandon M.; Scholl, Brian J.

    2012-01-01

    In visual images, we perceive both space (as a continuous visual medium) and objects (that inhabit space). Similarly, in dynamic visual experience, we perceive both continuous time and discrete events. What is the relationship between these units of experience? The most intuitive answer may be similar to the spatial case: time is perceived as an…

  18. Simulation of quasistatic deformations using discrete rod models

    OpenAIRE

    Linn, J.; Stephan, T.

    2008-01-01

    Recently we developed a discrete model of elastic rods with symmetric cross section suitable for a fast simulation of quasistatic deformations [33]. The model is based on Kirchhoff’s geometrically exact theory of rods. Unlike simple models of “mass & spring” type typically used in VR applications, our model provides a proper coupling of bending and torsion. The computational approach comprises a variational formulation combined with a finite difference discretization of the continuum model. A...

  19. A theory of Markovian time-inconsistent stochastic control in discrete time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjork, Tomas; Murgoci, Agatha

    2014-01-01

    We develop a theory for a general class of discrete-time stochastic control problems that, in various ways, are time-inconsistent in the sense that they do not admit a Bellman optimality principle. We attack these problems by viewing them within a game theoretic framework, and we look for subgame...

  20. On the mixed discretization of the time domain magnetic field integral equation

    KAUST Repository

    Ulku, Huseyin Arda

    2012-09-01

    Time domain magnetic field integral equation (MFIE) is discretized using divergence-conforming Rao-Wilton-Glisson (RWG) and curl-conforming Buffa-Christiansen (BC) functions as spatial basis and testing functions, respectively. The resulting mixed discretization scheme, unlike the classical scheme which uses RWG functions as both basis and testing functions, is proper: Testing functions belong to dual space of the basis functions. Numerical results demonstrate that the marching on-in-time (MOT) solution of the mixed discretized MFIE yields more accurate results than that of classically discretized MFIE. © 2012 IEEE.

  1. Modulational instability and discrete breathers in a nonlinear helicoidal lattice model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Jinmin; Wu, Tianle; Chang, Xia; Tang, Bing

    2018-06-01

    We investigate the problem on the discrete modulation instability of plane waves and discrete breather modes in a nonlinear helicoidal lattice model, which is described by a discrete nonlinear Schrödinger equation with the first-, second-, and third-neighbor coupling. By means of the linear stability analysis, we present an analytical expression of the instability growth rate and identify the regions of modulational instability of plane waves. It is shown that the introduction of the third-neighbor coupling will affect the shape of the areas of modulational instability significantly. Based on the results obtained by the modulational instability analysis, we predict the existence conditions for the stationary breather modes. Otherwise, by making use of the semidiscrete multiple-scale method, we obtain analytical solutions of discrete breather modes and analyze their properties for different types of nonlinearities. Our results show that the discrete breathers obtained are stable for a long time only when the system exhibits the repulsive nonlinearity. In addition, it is found that the existence of the stable bright discrete breather closely relates to the presence of the third-neighbor coupling.

  2. Decentralized control of discrete-time linear time invariant systems with input saturation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deliu, C.; Deliu, Ciprian; Malek, Babak; Roy, Sandip; Saberi, Ali; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij

    We study decentralized stabilization of discrete-time linear time invariant (LTI) systems subject to actuator saturation, using LTI controllers. The requirement of stabilization under both saturation constraints and decentralization impose obvious necessary conditions on the open-loop plant, namely

  3. Decentralized control of discrete-time linear time invariant systems with input saturation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deliu, Ciprian; Deliu, C.; Malek, Babak; Roy, Sandip; Saberi, Ali; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij

    2009-01-01

    We study decentralized stabilization of discrete time linear time invariant (LTI) systems subject to actuator saturation, using LTI controllers. The requirement of stabilization under both saturation constraints and decentralization impose obvious necessary conditions on the open-loop plant, namely

  4. Discrete and continuous time dynamic mean-variance analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Reiss, Ariane

    1999-01-01

    Contrary to static mean-variance analysis, very few papers have dealt with dynamic mean-variance analysis. Here, the mean-variance efficient self-financing portfolio strategy is derived for n risky assets in discrete and continuous time. In the discrete setting, the resulting portfolio is mean-variance efficient in a dynamic sense. It is shown that the optimal strategy for n risky assets may be dominated if the expected terminal wealth is constrained to exactly attain a certain goal instead o...

  5. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  6. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel [Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 61300, Brno (Czech Republic); Bednářová, Petra [Institute of Technology and Business, Okružní 517/10, 370 01, České Budějovice (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

  7. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel; Bednářová, Petra

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches

  8. Modelling a reliability system governed by discrete phase-type distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Castro, Juan Eloy; Perez-Ocon, Rafael; Fernandez-Villodre, Gemma

    2008-01-01

    We present an n-system with one online unit and the others in cold standby. There is a repairman. When the online fails it goes to repair, and instantaneously a standby unit becomes the online one. The operational and repair times follow discrete phase-type distributions. Given that any discrete distribution defined on the positive integers is a discrete phase-type distribution, the system can be considered a general one. A model with unlimited number of units is considered for approximating a system with a great number of units. We show that the process that governs the system is a quasi-birth-and-death process. For this system, performance reliability measures; the up and down periods, and the involved costs are calculated in a matrix and algorithmic form. We show that the discrete case is not a trivial case of the continuous one. The results given in this paper have been implemented computationally with Matlab

  9. Modelling a reliability system governed by discrete phase-type distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz-Castro, Juan Eloy [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain)], E-mail: jeloy@ugr.es; Perez-Ocon, Rafael [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain)], E-mail: rperezo@ugr.es; Fernandez-Villodre, Gemma [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain)

    2008-11-15

    We present an n-system with one online unit and the others in cold standby. There is a repairman. When the online fails it goes to repair, and instantaneously a standby unit becomes the online one. The operational and repair times follow discrete phase-type distributions. Given that any discrete distribution defined on the positive integers is a discrete phase-type distribution, the system can be considered a general one. A model with unlimited number of units is considered for approximating a system with a great number of units. We show that the process that governs the system is a quasi-birth-and-death process. For this system, performance reliability measures; the up and down periods, and the involved costs are calculated in a matrix and algorithmic form. We show that the discrete case is not a trivial case of the continuous one. The results given in this paper have been implemented computationally with Matlab.

  10. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  11. Fault diagnosis for discrete event systems: Modelling and verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simeu-Abazi, Zineb; Di Mascolo, Maria; Knotek, Michal

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes an effective way for diagnosis of discrete-event systems using a timed-automaton. It is based on the model-checking technique, thanks to time analysis of the timed model. The paper proposes a method to construct all the timed models and details the different steps used to obtain the diagnosis path. A dynamic model with temporal transitions is proposed in order to model the system. By 'dynamical model', we mean an extension of timed automata for which the faulty states are identified. The model of the studied system contains the faultless functioning states and all the faulty states. Our method is based on the backward exploitation of the dynamic model, where all possible reverse paths are searched. The reverse path is the connection of the faulty state to the initial state. The diagnosis method is based on the coherence between the faulty occurrence time and the reverse path length. A real-world batch process is used to demonstrate the modelling steps and the proposed backward time analysis method to reach the diagnosis results.

  12. Discrete Element Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, J; Johnson, S

    2007-12-03

    The Distinct Element Method (also frequently referred to as the Discrete Element Method) (DEM) is a Lagrangian numerical technique where the computational domain consists of discrete solid elements which interact via compliant contacts. This can be contrasted with Finite Element Methods where the computational domain is assumed to represent a continuum (although many modern implementations of the FEM can accommodate some Distinct Element capabilities). Often the terms Discrete Element Method and Distinct Element Method are used interchangeably in the literature, although Cundall and Hart (1992) suggested that Discrete Element Methods should be a more inclusive term covering Distinct Element Methods, Displacement Discontinuity Analysis and Modal Methods. In this work, DEM specifically refers to the Distinct Element Method, where the discrete elements interact via compliant contacts, in contrast with Displacement Discontinuity Analysis where the contacts are rigid and all compliance is taken up by the adjacent intact material.

  13. Globally asymptotically stable analysis in a discrete time eco-epidemiological system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Zengyun; Teng, Zhidong; Zhang, Tailei; Zhou, Qiming; Chen, Xi

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Dynamical behaviors of a discrete time eco-epidemiological system are discussed. • Global asymptotical stability of this system is obtained by an iteration scheme which can be expended to general dimensional discrete system. • More complex dynamical behaviors are obtained by numerical simulations. - Abstract: In this study, the dynamical behaviors of a discrete time eco-epidemiological system are discussed. The local stability, bifurcation and chaos are obtained. Moreover, the global asymptotical stability of this system is explored by an iteration scheme. The numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results and exhibit the complex dynamical behaviors such as flip bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and chaotic dynamical behaviors. Our main results provide an efficient method to analyze the global asymptotical stability for general three dimensional discrete systems.

  14. Variable elasticity of substituition in a discrete time Solow–Swan growth model with differential saving

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► One dimensional piecewise smooth map: border collision bifurcations. ► Numerical simulations: complex dynamics. ► Ves production function in the solow–swan growth model and comparison with the ces production function. - Abstract: We study the dynamics shown by the discrete time neoclassical one-sector growth model with differential savings as in Bohm and Kaas while assuming VES production function in the form given by Revankar . It is shown that the model can exhibit unbounded endogenous growth despite the absence of exogenous technical change and the presence of non-reproducible factors if the elasticity of substitution is greater than one. We then consider parameters range related to non-trivial dynamics (i.e. the elasticity of substitution in less than one and shareholders save more than workers) and we focus on local and global bifurcations causing the transition to more and more complex asymptotic dynamics. In particular, as our map is non-differentiable in a subset of the states space, we show that border collision bifurcations occur. Several numerical simulations support the analysis.

  15. Current Density and Continuity in Discretized Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykin, Timothy B.; Luisier, Mathieu; Klimeck, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    Discrete approaches have long been used in numerical modelling of physical systems in both research and teaching. Discrete versions of the Schrodinger equation employing either one or several basis functions per mesh point are often used by senior undergraduates and beginning graduate students in computational physics projects. In studying…

  16. Advances in discrete differential geometry

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This is one of the first books on a newly emerging field of discrete differential geometry and an excellent way to access this exciting area. It surveys the fascinating connections between discrete models in differential geometry and complex analysis, integrable systems and applications in computer graphics. The authors take a closer look at discrete models in differential geometry and dynamical systems. Their curves are polygonal, surfaces are made from triangles and quadrilaterals, and time is discrete. Nevertheless, the difference between the corresponding smooth curves, surfaces and classical dynamical systems with continuous time can hardly be seen. This is the paradigm of structure-preserving discretizations. Current advances in this field are stimulated to a large extent by its relevance for computer graphics and mathematical physics. This book is written by specialists working together on a common research project. It is about differential geometry and dynamical systems, smooth and discrete theories, ...

  17. Frequency interval balanced truncation of discrete-time bilinear systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jazlan, Ahmad; Sreeram, Victor; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a new model reduction method for discrete-time bilinear systems based on the balanced truncation framework. In many model reduction applications, it is advantageous to analyze the characteristics of the system with emphasis on particular frequency intervals...... are the solution to a pair of new generalized Lyapunov equations. The conditions for solvability of these new generalized Lyapunov equations are derived and a numerical solution method for solving these generalized Lyapunov equations is presented. Numerical examples which illustrate the usage of the new...... generalized frequency interval controllability and observability gramians as part of the balanced truncation framework are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method....

  18. Discrete-fracture-model of multi–scale time-splitting two–phase flow including nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed

    2017-11-23

    In this article, we consider a two-phase immiscible incompressible flow including nanoparticles transport in fractured heterogeneous porous media. The system of the governing equations consists of water saturation, Darcy’s law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat, as well as, porosity and permeability variation due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores. The discrete-fracture model (DFM) is used to describe the flow and transport in fractured porous media. Moreover, multiscale time-splitting strategy has been employed to manage different time-step sizes for different physics, such as saturation, concentration, etc. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multi-scale time splitting approach.

  19. Discrete-fracture-model of multi–scale time-splitting two–phase flow including nanoparticles transport in fractured porous media

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed; Kou, Jisheng; Sun, Shuyu

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we consider a two-phase immiscible incompressible flow including nanoparticles transport in fractured heterogeneous porous media. The system of the governing equations consists of water saturation, Darcy’s law, nanoparticles concentration in water, deposited nanoparticles concentration on the pore-wall, and entrapped nanoparticles concentration in the pore-throat, as well as, porosity and permeability variation due to the nanoparticles deposition/entrapment on/in the pores. The discrete-fracture model (DFM) is used to describe the flow and transport in fractured porous media. Moreover, multiscale time-splitting strategy has been employed to manage different time-step sizes for different physics, such as saturation, concentration, etc. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed multi-scale time splitting approach.

  20. Continuous time modeling of panel data by means of SEM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Delsing, M.J.M.H.; Montfort, C.A.G.M.; Oud, J.H.L.; Satorra, A.

    2010-01-01

    After a brief history of continuous time modeling and its implementation in panel analysis by means of structural equation modeling (SEM), the problems of discrete time modeling are discussed in detail. This is done by means of the popular cross-lagged panel design. Next, the exact discrete model

  1. A discrete dislocation–transformation model for austenitic single crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, J; Turteltaub, S; Remmers, J J C; Van der Giessen, E

    2008-01-01

    A discrete model for analyzing the interaction between plastic flow and martensitic phase transformations is developed. The model is intended for simulating the microstructure evolution in a single crystal of austenite that transforms non-homogeneously into martensite. The plastic flow in the untransformed austenite is simulated using a plane-strain discrete dislocation model. The phase transformation is modeled via the nucleation and growth of discrete martensitic regions embedded in the austenitic single crystal. At each instant during loading, the coupled elasto-plasto-transformation problem is solved using the superposition of analytical solutions for the discrete dislocations and discrete transformation regions embedded in an infinite homogeneous medium and the numerical solution of a complementary problem used to enforce the actual boundary conditions and the heterogeneities in the medium. In order to describe the nucleation and growth of martensitic regions, a nucleation criterion and a kinetic law suitable for discrete regions are specified. The constitutive rules used in discrete dislocation simulations are supplemented with additional evolution rules to account for the phase transformation. To illustrate the basic features of the model, simulations of specimens under plane-strain uniaxial extension and contraction are analyzed. The simulations indicate that plastic flow reduces the average stress at which transformation begins, but it also reduces the transformation rate when compared with benchmark simulations without plasticity. Furthermore, due to local stress fluctuations caused by dislocations, martensitic systems can be activated even though transformation would not appear to be favorable based on the average stress. Conversely, the simulations indicate that the plastic hardening behavior is influenced by the reduction in the effective austenitic grain size due to the evolution of transformation. During cyclic simulations, the coupled plasticity

  2. Compensatory neurofuzzy model for discrete data classification in biomedical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceylan, Rahime

    2015-03-01

    Biomedical data is separated to two main sections: signals and discrete data. So, studies in this area are about biomedical signal classification or biomedical discrete data classification. There are artificial intelligence models which are relevant to classification of ECG, EMG or EEG signals. In same way, in literature, many models exist for classification of discrete data taken as value of samples which can be results of blood analysis or biopsy in medical process. Each algorithm could not achieve high accuracy rate on classification of signal and discrete data. In this study, compensatory neurofuzzy network model is presented for classification of discrete data in biomedical pattern recognition area. The compensatory neurofuzzy network has a hybrid and binary classifier. In this system, the parameters of fuzzy systems are updated by backpropagation algorithm. The realized classifier model is conducted to two benchmark datasets (Wisconsin Breast Cancer dataset and Pima Indian Diabetes dataset). Experimental studies show that compensatory neurofuzzy network model achieved 96.11% accuracy rate in classification of breast cancer dataset and 69.08% accuracy rate was obtained in experiments made on diabetes dataset with only 10 iterations.

  3. A Robust Computational Technique for Model Order Reduction of Two-Time-Scale Discrete Systems via Genetic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Othman M. K. Alsmadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A robust computational technique for model order reduction (MOR of multi-time-scale discrete systems (single input single output (SISO and multi-input multioutput (MIMO is presented in this paper. This work is motivated by the singular perturbation of multi-time-scale systems where some specific dynamics may not have significant influence on the overall system behavior. The new approach is proposed using genetic algorithms (GA with the advantage of obtaining a reduced order model, maintaining the exact dominant dynamics in the reduced order, and minimizing the steady state error. The reduction process is performed by obtaining an upper triangular transformed matrix of the system state matrix defined in state space representation along with the elements of B, C, and D matrices. The GA computational procedure is based on maximizing the fitness function corresponding to the response deviation between the full and reduced order models. The proposed computational intelligence MOR method is compared to recently published work on MOR techniques where simulation results show the potential and advantages of the new approach.

  4. Robust Moving Horizon H∞ Control of Discrete Time-Delayed Systems with Interval Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yıldız Tascikaraoglu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, design of a delay-dependent type moving horizon state-feedback control (MHHC is considered for a class of linear discrete-time system subject to time-varying state delays, norm-bounded uncertainties, and disturbances with bounded energies. The closed-loop robust stability and robust performance problems are considered to overcome the instability and poor disturbance rejection performance due to the existence of parametric uncertainties and time-delay appeared in the system dynamics. Utilizing a discrete-time Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, some delay-dependent linear matrix inequality (LMI based conditions are provided. It is shown that if one can find a feasible solution set for these LMI conditions iteratively at each step of run-time, then we can construct a control law which guarantees the closed-loop asymptotic stability, maximum disturbance rejection performance, and closed-loop dissipativity in view of the actuator limitations. Two numerical examples with simulations on a nominal and uncertain discrete-time, time-delayed systems, are presented at the end, in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

  5. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Cristi Spulbar; Mihai Nitoi

    2012-01-01

    Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent peri...

  6. Global exponential stability of BAM neural networks with time-varying delays: The discrete-time case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, R.; Marshal Anthoni, S.

    2011-02-01

    This paper deals with the problem of stability analysis for a class of discrete-time bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays. By employing the Lyapunov functional and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, a new sufficient conditions is proposed for the global exponential stability of discrete-time BAM neural networks. The proposed LMI based results can be easily checked by LMI control toolbox. Moreover, an example is also provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Neimark-Sacker bifurcation for the discrete-delay Kaldor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobrescu, Loretti I.; Opris, Dumitru

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-delay time, Kaldor nonlinear business cycle model in income and capital. Given an investment function, resembling the one discussed by Rodano, we use the linear approximation analysis to state the local stability property and local bifurcations, in the parameter space. Finally, we will give some numerical examples to justify the theoretical results.

  8. Discrete-Time Local Value Iteration Adaptive Dynamic Programming: Admissibility and Termination Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Qinglai; Liu, Derong; Lin, Qiao

    In this paper, a novel local value iteration adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm is developed to solve infinite horizon optimal control problems for discrete-time nonlinear systems. The focuses of this paper are to study admissibility properties and the termination criteria of discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithms. In the discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithm, the iterative value functions and the iterative control laws are both updated in a given subset of the state space in each iteration, instead of the whole state space. For the first time, admissibility properties of iterative control laws are analyzed for the local value iteration ADP algorithm. New termination criteria are established, which terminate the iterative local ADP algorithm with an admissible approximate optimal control law. Finally, simulation results are given to illustrate the performance of the developed algorithm.In this paper, a novel local value iteration adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm is developed to solve infinite horizon optimal control problems for discrete-time nonlinear systems. The focuses of this paper are to study admissibility properties and the termination criteria of discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithms. In the discrete-time local value iteration ADP algorithm, the iterative value functions and the iterative control laws are both updated in a given subset of the state space in each iteration, instead of the whole state space. For the first time, admissibility properties of iterative control laws are analyzed for the local value iteration ADP algorithm. New termination criteria are established, which terminate the iterative local ADP algorithm with an admissible approximate optimal control law. Finally, simulation results are given to illustrate the performance of the developed algorithm.

  9. Modelling biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays: a hybrid semi-parametric approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliveira Rui

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents a method for modelling dynamical biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays. Since the fundamental mechanisms leading to such delays are many times unknown, non conventional modelling approaches become necessary. Herein, a hybrid semi-parametric identification methodology is proposed in which discrete time series are incorporated into fundamental material balance models. This integration results in hybrid delay differential equations which can be applied to identify unknown cellular dynamics. Results The proposed hybrid modelling methodology was evaluated using two case studies. The first of these deals with dynamic modelling of transcriptional factor A in mammalian cells. The protein transport from the cytosol to the nucleus introduced a delay that was accounted for by discrete time series formulation. The second case study focused on a simple network with distributed time delays that demonstrated that the discrete time delay formalism has broad applicability to both discrete and distributed delay problems. Conclusions Significantly better prediction qualities of the novel hybrid model were obtained when compared to dynamical structures without time delays, being the more distinctive the more significant the underlying system delay is. The identification of the system delays by studies of different discrete modelling delays was enabled by the proposed structure. Further, it was shown that the hybrid discrete delay methodology is not limited to discrete delay systems. The proposed method is a powerful tool to identify time delays in ill-defined biochemical networks.

  10. Development of discrete-time H∞ filtering method for time-delay compensation of rhodium incore detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Moon Kyu; Kim, Yong Hee; Cha, Kune Ho; Kim, Myung Ki

    1998-01-01

    A method is described to develop an H∞ filtering method for the dynamic compensation of self-powered neutron detectors normally used for fixed incore instruments. An H∞ norm of the filter transfer matrix is used as the optimization criteria in the worst-case estimation error sense. Filter modeling is performed for discrete-time model. The filter gains are optimized in the sense of noise attenuation level of H∞ setting. By introducing Bounded Real Lemma, the conventional algebraic Riccati inequalities are converted into Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Finally, the filter design problem is solved via the convex optimization framework using LMIs. The simulation results show that remarkable improvements are achieved in view of the filter response time and the filter design efficiency

  11. HIGHLY-ACCURATE MODEL ORDER REDUCTION TECHNIQUE ON A DISCRETE DOMAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. D. Ribeiro

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available AbstractIn this work, we present a highly-accurate technique of model order reduction applied to staged processes. The proposed method reduces the dimension of the original system based on null values of moment-weighted sums of heat and mass balance residuals on real stages. To compute these sums of weighted residuals, a discrete form of Gauss-Lobatto quadrature was developed, allowing a high degree of accuracy in these calculations. The locations where the residuals are cancelled vary with time and operating conditions, characterizing a desirable adaptive nature of this technique. Balances related to upstream and downstream devices (such as condenser, reboiler, and feed tray of a distillation column are considered as boundary conditions of the corresponding difference-differential equations system. The chosen number of moments is the dimension of the reduced model being much lower than the dimension of the complete model and does not depend on the size of the original model. Scaling of the discrete independent variable related with the stages was crucial for the computational implementation of the proposed method, avoiding accumulation of round-off errors present even in low-degree polynomial approximations in the original discrete variable. Dynamical simulations of distillation columns were carried out to check the performance of the proposed model order reduction technique. The obtained results show the superiority of the proposed procedure in comparison with the orthogonal collocation method.

  12. On periodic orbits in discrete-time cascade systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huimin Li

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present some results on existence, minimum period, number of periodic orbits, and stability of periodic orbits in discrete-time cascade systems. Some examples are presented to illustrate these results.

  13. A modified GO-FLOW methodology with common cause failure based on Discrete Time Bayesian Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Dongming; Wang, Zili; Liu, Linlin; Ren, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Identification of particular causes of failure for common cause failure analysis. • Comparison two formalisms (GO-FLOW and Discrete Time Bayesian network) and establish the correlation between them. • Mapping the GO-FLOW model into Bayesian network model. • Calculated GO-FLOW model with common cause failures based on DTBN. - Abstract: The GO-FLOW methodology is a success-oriented system reliability modelling technique for multi-phase missions involving complex time-dependent, multi-state and common cause failure (CCF) features. However, the analysis algorithm cannot easily handle the multiple shared signals and CCFs. In addition, the simulative algorithm is time consuming when vast multi-state components exist in the model, and the multiple time points of phased mission problems increases the difficulty of the analysis method. In this paper, the Discrete Time Bayesian Network (DTBN) and the GO-FLOW methodology are integrated by the unified mapping rules. Based on these rules, the multi operators can be mapped into DTBN followed by, a complete GO-FLOW model with complex characteristics (e.g. phased mission, multi-state, and CCF) can be converted to the isomorphic DTBN and easily analyzed by utilizing the DTBN. With mature algorithms and tools, the multi-phase mission reliability parameter can be efficiently obtained via the proposed approach without considering the shared signals and the various complex logic operation. Meanwhile, CCF can also arise in the computing process.

  14. Discrete-Time LPV Current Control of an Induction Motor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, Klaus

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new method for gain-scheduled output feedback control of nonlinear systems to current control of an induction motor. The method relies on recently developed controller synthesis results for linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems, where the controller synthesis is formulated...... without further complications. The synthesis method is applied to the model, yielding an LPV discrete-time controller. Finally, the efficiency of the control scheme is validated via simulations as well as experimentally on the actual induction motor, both in open-loop current control and when an outer...... speed control loop is closed around the current loop...

  15. Discrete-Time LPV Current Control of an Induction Motor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, Klaus

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new method for gain-scheduled output feedback control of nonlinear systems to current control of an induction motor. The method relies on recently developed controller synthesis results for linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems, where the controller synthesis is formulated...... further complications. The synthesis method is applied to the model, yielding an LPV discrete-time controller. Finally, the efficiency of the control scheme is validated via simulations as well as on the actual induction motor, both in open-loop current control and when an outer speed control loop...... is closed around the current loop....

  16. Discretization of space and time in wave mechanics: the validity limit

    OpenAIRE

    Roatta , Luca

    2017-01-01

    Assuming that space and time can only have discrete values, it is shown that wave mechanics must necessarily have a specific applicability limit: in a discrete context, unlike in a continuous one, frequencies can not have arbitrarily high values.

  17. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator–prey model with ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator–prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rateof the predator.We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure ...

  18. Coordination Frictions and Job Heterogeneity: A Discrete Time Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennes, John; Le Maire, Christian Daniel

    This paper develops and extends a dynamic, discrete time, job to worker matching model in which jobs are heterogeneous in equilibrium. The key assumptions of this economic environment are (i) matching is directed and (ii) coordination frictions lead to heterogeneous local labor markets. We de- rive...... a number of new theoretical results, which are essential for the empirical application of this type of model to matched employer-employee microdata. First, we o¤er a robust equilibrium concept in which there is a continu- ous dispersion of job productivities and wages. Second, we show that our model can...... of these results preserve the essential tractability of the baseline model with aggregate shocks. Therefore, we o¤er a parsimonious, general equilibrium framework in which to study the process by which the contin- uous dispersion of wages and productivities varies over the business cycle for a large population...

  19. Applications of discrete element method in modeling of grain postharvest operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grain kernels are finite and discrete materials. Although flowing grain can behave like a continuum fluid at times, the discontinuous behavior exhibited by grain kernels cannot be simulated solely with conventional continuum-based computer modeling such as finite-element or finite-difference methods...

  20. A geometric renormalization group in discrete quantum space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Requardt, Manfred

    2003-01-01

    We model quantum space-time on the Planck scale as dynamical networks of elementary relations or time dependent random graphs, the time dependence being an effect of the underlying dynamical network laws. We formulate a kind of geometric renormalization group on these (random) networks leading to a hierarchy of increasingly coarse-grained networks of overlapping lumps. We provide arguments that this process may generate a fixed limit phase, representing our continuous space-time on a mesoscopic or macroscopic scale, provided that the underlying discrete geometry is critical in a specific sense (geometric long range order). Our point of view is corroborated by a series of analytic and numerical results, which allow us to keep track of the geometric changes, taking place on the various scales of the resolution of space-time. Of particular conceptual importance are the notions of dimension of such random systems on the various scales and the notion of geometric criticality

  1. Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Tsai, Hsien-Tang

    2008-01-01

    Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. (author)

  2. The large discretization step method for time-dependent partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haras, Zigo; Taasan, Shlomo

    1995-01-01

    A new method for the acceleration of linear and nonlinear time dependent calculations is presented. It is based on the Large Discretization Step (LDS) approximation, defined in this work, which employs an extended system of low accuracy schemes to approximate a high accuracy discrete approximation to a time dependent differential operator. Error bounds on such approximations are derived. These approximations are efficiently implemented in the LDS methods for linear and nonlinear hyperbolic equations, presented here. In these algorithms the high and low accuracy schemes are interpreted as the same discretization of a time dependent operator on fine and coarse grids, respectively. Thus, a system of correction terms and corresponding equations are derived and solved on the coarse grid to yield the fine grid accuracy. These terms are initialized by visiting the fine grid once in many coarse grid time steps. The resulting methods are very general, simple to implement and may be used to accelerate many existing time marching schemes.

  3. Generalized Synchronization of Time-Delayed Discrete Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing Jianyi; Min Lequan

    2009-01-01

    This paper establishes two theorems for two time-delayed (chaotic) discrete systems to achieve time-delayed generalized synchronization (TDGS). These two theorems uncover the general forms of two TDGS systems via a prescribed transformation. As examples, we convert the Lorenz three-dimensional chaotic map to an equal time-delayed system as the driving system, and construct the TDGS driven systems according to the Theorems 1 and 2. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed theorems. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  4. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  5. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E [Applied Mathematics Division, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD (United Kingdom)

    2003-11-21

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated.

  6. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E

    2003-01-01

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated

  7. Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2011-01-01

    A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

  8. ADAM: analysis of discrete models of biological systems using computer algebra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkelmann, Franziska; Brandon, Madison; Guang, Bonny; McNeill, Rustin; Blekherman, Grigoriy; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2011-07-20

    Many biological systems are modeled qualitatively with discrete models, such as probabilistic Boolean networks, logical models, Petri nets, and agent-based models, to gain a better understanding of them. The computational complexity to analyze the complete dynamics of these models grows exponentially in the number of variables, which impedes working with complex models. There exist software tools to analyze discrete models, but they either lack the algorithmic functionality to analyze complex models deterministically or they are inaccessible to many users as they require understanding the underlying algorithm and implementation, do not have a graphical user interface, or are hard to install. Efficient analysis methods that are accessible to modelers and easy to use are needed. We propose a method for efficiently identifying attractors and introduce the web-based tool Analysis of Dynamic Algebraic Models (ADAM), which provides this and other analysis methods for discrete models. ADAM converts several discrete model types automatically into polynomial dynamical systems and analyzes their dynamics using tools from computer algebra. Specifically, we propose a method to identify attractors of a discrete model that is equivalent to solving a system of polynomial equations, a long-studied problem in computer algebra. Based on extensive experimentation with both discrete models arising in systems biology and randomly generated networks, we found that the algebraic algorithms presented in this manuscript are fast for systems with the structure maintained by most biological systems, namely sparseness and robustness. For a large set of published complex discrete models, ADAM identified the attractors in less than one second. Discrete modeling techniques are a useful tool for analyzing complex biological systems and there is a need in the biological community for accessible efficient analysis tools. ADAM provides analysis methods based on mathematical algorithms as a web

  9. Discrete time process algebra and the semantics of SDL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Bergstra; C.A. Middelburg; Y.S. Usenko (Yaroslav)

    1998-01-01

    htmlabstractWe present an extension of discrete time process algebra with relative timing where recursion, propositional signals and conditions, a counting process creation operator, and the state operator are combined. Except the counting process creation operator, which subsumes the original

  10. Discrete competing risk model with application to modeling bus-motor failure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, R.

    2010-01-01

    Failure data are often modeled using continuous distributions. However, a discrete distribution can be appropriate for modeling interval or grouped data. When failure data come from a complex system, a simple discrete model can be inappropriate for modeling such data. This paper presents two types of discrete distributions. One is formed by exponentiating an underlying distribution, and the other is a two-fold competing risk model. The paper focuses on two special distributions: (a) exponentiated Poisson distribution and (b) competing risk model involving a geometric distribution and an exponentiated Poisson distribution. The competing risk model has a decreasing-followed-by-unimodal mass function and a bathtub-shaped failure rate. Five classical data sets on bus-motor failures can be simultaneously and appropriately fitted by a general 5-parameter competing risk model with the parameters being functions of the number of successive failures. The lifetime and aging characteristics of the fitted distribution are analyzed.

  11. Stabilization and tracking controller for a class of nonlinear discrete-time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, B.B.; Kar, I.N.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We present recursive design of stabilizing controller for nonlinear discrete-time systems. → Problem of stabilizing and tracking control of single link manipulator system is addressed. → We extend the proposed results to output tracking problems. → The proposed methodology is applied satisfactorily to discrete-time chaotic maps. - Abstract: In this paper, stabilization and tracking control problem for parametric strict feedback class of discrete time systems is addressed. Recursive design of control function based on contraction theory framework is proposed instead of traditional Lyapunov based method. Explicit structure of controller is derived for the addressed class of nonlinear discrete-time systems. Conditions for exponential stability of system states are derived in terms of controller parameters. At each stage of recursive procedure a specific structure of Jacobian matrix is ensured so as to satisfy conditions of stability. The closed loop dynamics in this case remains nonlinear in nature. The proposed algorithm establishes global stability results in quite a simple manner as it does not require formulation of error dynamics. Problem of stabilization and output tracking control in case of single link manipulator system with actuator dynamics is analyzed using the proposed strategy. The proposed results are further extended to stabilization of discrete time chaotic systems. Numerical simulations presented in the end show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  12. Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.

  13. Discrete gradients in discrete classical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renna, L.

    1987-01-01

    A simple model of discrete classical mechanics is given where, starting from the continuous Hamilton equations, discrete equations of motion are established together with a proper discrete gradient definition. The conservation laws of the total discrete momentum, angular momentum, and energy are demonstrated

  14. Parrondo's game using a discrete-time quantum walk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandrashekar, C.M.; Banerjee, Subhashish

    2011-01-01

    We present a new form of a Parrondo game using discrete-time quantum walk on a line. The two players A and B with different quantum coins operators, individually losing the game can develop a strategy to emerge as joint winners by using their coins alternatively, or in combination for each step of the quantum walk evolution. We also present a strategy for a player A (B) to have a winning probability more than player B (A). Significance of the game strategy in information theory and physical applications are also discussed. - Highlights: → Novel form of Parrondo's game on a single particle discrete-time quantum walk. → Strategies for players to emerge as individual winners or as joint winners. → General framework for controlling and using quantum walk with multiple coins. → Strategies can be used in algorithms and situations involving directed motion.

  15. Discrete-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with variable delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Jinling; Cao Jinde; Ho, Daniel W.C.

    2005-01-01

    Based on the linear matrix inequality (LMI), some sufficient conditions are presented in this Letter for the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of discrete-time bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with variable delays. Some of the stability criteria obtained in this Letter are delay-dependent, and some of them are delay-independent, they are less conservative than the ones reported so far in the literature. Furthermore, the results provide one more set of easily verified criteria for determining the exponential stability of discrete-time BAM neural networks

  16. Discrete-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with variable delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, variable delays [rapid communication] J.; Cao, J.; Ho, D. W. C.

    2005-02-01

    Based on the linear matrix inequality (LMI), some sufficient conditions are presented in this Letter for the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of discrete-time bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with variable delays. Some of the stability criteria obtained in this Letter are delay-dependent, and some of them are delay-independent, they are less conservative than the ones reported so far in the literature. Furthermore, the results provide one more set of easily verified criteria for determining the exponential stability of discrete-time BAM neural networks.

  17. A discrete stress-strength interference model based on universal generating function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An Zongwen; Huang Hongzhong; Liu Yu

    2008-01-01

    Continuous stress-strength interference (SSI) model regards stress and strength as continuous random variables with known probability density function. This, to some extent, results in a limitation of its application. In this paper, stress and strength are treated as discrete random variables, and a discrete SSI model is presented by using the universal generating function (UGF) method. Finally, case studies demonstrate the validity of the discrete model in a variety of circumstances, in which stress and strength can be represented by continuous random variables, discrete random variables, or two groups of experimental data

  18. Approximation-Based Discrete-Time Adaptive Position Tracking Control for Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jinpeng; Shi, Peng; Yu, Haisheng; Chen, Bing; Lin, Chong

    2015-07-01

    This paper considers the problem of discrete-time adaptive position tracking control for a interior permanent magnet synchronous motor (IPMSM) based on fuzzy-approximation. Fuzzy logic systems are used to approximate the nonlinearities of the discrete-time IPMSM drive system which is derived by direct discretization using Euler method, and a discrete-time fuzzy position tracking controller is designed via backstepping approach. In contrast to existing results, the advantage of the scheme is that the number of the adjustable parameters is reduced to two only and the problem of coupling nonlinearity can be overcome. It is shown that the proposed discrete-time fuzzy controller can guarantee the tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin and all the signals are bounded. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and the potentials of the theoretic results obtained.

  19. A discrete model for compressible flows in heterogeneous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Metayer, O.; Massol, A.; Favrie, N.; Hank, S.

    2011-01-01

    This work deals with the building of a discrete model able to describe and to predict the evolution of complex gas flows in heterogeneous media. In many physical applications, large scales numerical simulation is no longer possible because of a lack of computing resources. Indeed the medium topology may be complex due to the presence of many obstacles (walls, pipes, equipments, geometric singularities etc.). Aircraft powerplant compartments are examples where topology is complex due to the presence of pipes, ducts, coolers and other equipment. Other important examples are gas explosions and large scale dispersion of hazardous materials in urban places, cities or underground involving obstacles such as buildings and various infrastructures. In all cases efficient safety responses are required. Then a new discrete model is built and solved in reasonable execution times for large cells volumes including such obstacles. Quantitative comparisons between experimental and numerical results are shown for different significant test cases, showing excellent agreement.

  20. Timing comparison of two-dimensional discrete-ordinates codes for criticality calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.F. Jr.; Alcouffe, R.E.; Bosler, G.E.; Brinkley, F.W. Jr.; O'dell, R.D.

    1979-01-01

    The authors compare two-dimensional discrete-ordinates neutron transport computer codes to solve reactor criticality problems. The fundamental interest is in determining which code requires the minimum Central Processing Unit (CPU) time for a given numerical model of a reasonably realistic fast reactor core and peripherals. The computer codes considered are the most advanced available and, in three cases, are not officially released. The conclusion, based on the study of four fast reactor core models, is that for this class of problems the diffusion synthetic accelerated version of TWOTRAN, labeled TWOTRAN-DA, is superior to the other codes in terms of CPU requirements

  1. Discrete-Event Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prateek Sharma

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Simulation can be regarded as the emulation of the behavior of a real-world system over an interval of time. The process of simulation relies upon the generation of the history of a system and then analyzing that history to predict the outcome and improve the working of real systems. Simulations can be of various kinds but the topic of interest here is one of the most important kind of simulation which is Discrete-Event Simulation which models the system as a discrete sequence of events in time. So this paper aims at introducing about Discrete-Event Simulation and analyzing how it is beneficial to the real world systems.

  2. Geometry and Hamiltonian mechanics on discrete spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talasila, V; Clemente-Gallardo, J; Schaft, A J van der

    2004-01-01

    Numerical simulation is often crucial for analysing the behaviour of many complex systems which do not admit analytic solutions. To this end, one either converts a 'smooth' model into a discrete (in space and time) model, or models systems directly at a discrete level. The goal of this paper is to provide a discrete analogue of differential geometry, and to define on these discrete models a formal discrete Hamiltonian structure-in doing so we try to bring together various fundamental concepts from numerical analysis, differential geometry, algebraic geometry, simplicial homology and classical Hamiltonian mechanics. For example, the concept of a twisted derivation is borrowed from algebraic geometry for developing a discrete calculus. The theory is applied to a nonlinear pendulum and we compare the dynamics obtained through a discrete modelling approach with the dynamics obtained via the usual discretization procedures. Also an example of an energy-conserving algorithm on a simple harmonic oscillator is presented, and its effect on the Poisson structure is discussed

  3. Modelling the Volatility-Return Trade-off when Volatility may be Nonstationary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    In this paper a new GARCH-M type model, denoted the GARCH-AR, is proposed. In particular, it is shown that it is possible to generate a volatility-return trade-off in a regression model simply by introducing dynamics in the standardized disturbance process. Importantly, the volatility in the GARCH......, we provide an empirical illustration showing the empirical relevance of the GARCH-AR model based on modelling a wide range of leading US stock return series....

  4. Discrete Second-Order Sliding Mode Adaptive Controller Based on Characteristic Model for Servo Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihong Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the varying inertia and load torque in high speed and high accuracy servo systems, a novel discrete second-order sliding mode adaptive controller (DSSMAC based on characteristic model is proposed, and a command observer is also designed. Firstly, the discrete characteristic model of servo systems is established. Secondly, the recursive least square algorithm is adopted to identify time-varying parameters in characteristic model, and the observer is applied to predict the command value of next sample time. Furthermore, the stability of the closed-loop system and the convergence of the observer are analyzed. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only can adapt to varying inertia and load torque, but also has good disturbance rejection ability and robustness to uncertainties.

  5. Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Hang T.; Nabney, Ian T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their NMSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively. (author)

  6. Simulation of interim spent fuel storage system with discrete event model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Wan Ki; Song, Ki Chan; Lee, Jae Sol; Park, Hyun Soo

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes dynamic simulation of the spent fuel storage system which is described by statistical discrete event models. It visualizes flow and queue of system over time, assesses the operational performance of the system activities and establishes the system components and streams. It gives information on system organization and operation policy with reference to the design. System was tested and analyzed over a number of critical parameters to establish the optimal system. Workforce schedule and resources with long processing time dominate process. A combination of two workforce shifts a day and two cooling pits gives the optimal solution of storage system. Discrete system simulation is an useful tool to get information on optimal design and operation of the storage system. (Author)

  7. Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

  8. Sampled-data and discrete-time H2 optimal control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trentelman, Harry L.; Stoorvogel, Anton A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the sampled-data H2 optimal control problem. Given a linear time-invariant continuous-time system, the problem of minimizing the H2 performance over all sampled-data controllers with a fixed sampling period can be reduced to a pure discrete-time H2 optimal control problem. This

  9. On time discretizations for the simulation of the batch settling-compression process in one dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bürger, Raimund; Diehl, Stefan; Mejías, Camilo

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the recently introduced Bürger-Diehl simulation model for secondary settling tanks was to resolve spatial discretization problems when both hindered settling and the phenomena of compression and dispersion are included. Straightforward time integration unfortunately means long computational times. The next step in the development is to introduce and investigate time-integration methods for more efficient simulations, but where other aspects such as implementation complexity and robustness are equally considered. This is done for batch settling simulations. The key findings are partly a new time-discretization method and partly its comparison with other specially tailored and standard methods. Several advantages and disadvantages for each method are given. One conclusion is that the new linearly implicit method is easier to implement than another one (semi-implicit method), but less efficient based on two types of batch sedimentation tests.

  10. Modelling and nonlinear shock waves for binary gas mixtures by the discrete Boltzmann equation with multiple collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianchi, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    The discrete Boltzmann equation is a mathematical model in the kinetic theory of gases which defines the time and space evolution of a system of gas particles with a finite number of selected velocities. Discrete kinetic theory is an interesting field of research in mathematical physics and applied mathematics for several reasons. One of the relevant fields of application of the discrete Boltzmann equation is the analysis of nonlinear shock wave phenomena. Here, a new multiple collision regular plane model for binary gas mixtures is proposed within the discrete theory of gases and applied to the analysis of the classical problems of shock wave propagation

  11. Multiple-event probability in general-relativistic quantum mechanics. II. A discrete model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondragon, Mauricio; Perez, Alejandro; Rovelli, Carlo

    2007-01-01

    We introduce a simple quantum mechanical model in which time and space are discrete and periodic. These features avoid the complications related to continuous-spectrum operators and infinite-norm states. The model provides a tool for discussing the probabilistic interpretation of generally covariant quantum systems, without the confusion generated by spurious infinities. We use the model to illustrate the formalism of general-relativistic quantum mechanics, and to test the definition of multiple-event probability introduced in a companion paper [Phys. Rev. D 75, 084033 (2007)]. We consider a version of the model with unitary time evolution and a version without unitary time evolution

  12. Study of solar radiation prediction and modeling of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Yan, Dong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We investigate relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables. • A strong relationship exists between solar radiation and sunshine duration. • Daily global radiation can be estimated accurately with ARMAX–GARCH models. • MGARCH model was applied to investigate time-varying relationships. - Abstract: The traditional approaches that employ the correlations between solar radiation and other measured meteorological variables are commonly utilized in studies. It is important to investigate the time-varying relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation to determine which variables have the strongest correlations with solar radiation. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX–GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time-series approaches were applied to investigate the associations between solar radiation and several meteorological variables. For these investigations, the long-term daily global solar radiation series measured at three stations from January 1, 2004 until December 31, 2007 were used in this study. Stronger relationships were observed to exist between global solar radiation and sunshine duration than between solar radiation and temperature difference. The results show that 82–88% of the temporal variations of the global solar radiation were captured by the sunshine-duration-based ARMAX–GARCH models and 55–68% of daily variations were captured by the temperature-difference-based ARMAX–GARCH models. The advantages of the ARMAX–GARCH models were also confirmed by comparison of Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and neutral network (ANN) models in the estimation of daily global solar radiation. The strong heteroscedastic persistency of the global solar radiation series was revealed by the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto

  13. Function Projective Synchronization in Discrete-Time Chaotic System with Uncertain Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yong; Li Xin

    2009-01-01

    The function projective synchronization of discrete-time chaotic systems is presented. Based on backstepping design with three controllers, a systematic, concrete and automatic scheme is developed to investigate function projective synchronization (FPS) of discrete-time chaotic systems with uncertain parameters. With the aid of symbolic-numeric computation, we use the proposed scheme to illustrate FPS between two identical 3D Henon-like maps with uncertain parameters. Numeric simulations are used to verify the effectiveness of our scheme. (general)

  14. Cryptanalysis of a discrete-time synchronous chaotic encryption system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arroyo, David; Alvarez, Gonzalo; Li Shujun; Li Chengqing; Nunez, Juana

    2008-01-01

    Recently a chaotic cryptosystem based on discrete-time synchronization has been proposed. Some weaknesses of that new encryption system are addressed and exploited in order to successfully cryptanalyze the system

  15. Filtering of Discrete-Time Switched Neural Networks Ensuring Exponential Dissipative and $l_{2}$ - $l_{\\infty }$ Performances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyun Duck; Ahn, Choon Ki; Karimi, Hamid Reza; Lim, Myo Taeg

    2017-10-01

    This paper studies delay-dependent exponential dissipative and l 2 - l ∞ filtering problems for discrete-time switched neural networks (DSNNs) including time-delayed states. By introducing a novel discrete-time inequality, which is a discrete-time version of the continuous-time Wirtinger-type inequality, we establish new sets of linear matrix inequality (LMI) criteria such that discrete-time filtering error systems are exponentially stable with guaranteed performances in the exponential dissipative and l 2 - l ∞ senses. The design of the desired exponential dissipative and l 2 - l ∞ filters for DSNNs can be achieved by solving the proposed sets of LMI conditions. Via numerical simulation results, we show the validity of the desired discrete-time filter design approach.

  16. Fixed Points in Discrete Models for Regulatory Genetic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orozco Edusmildo

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available It is desirable to have efficient mathematical methods to extract information about regulatory iterations between genes from repeated measurements of gene transcript concentrations. One piece of information is of interest when the dynamics reaches a steady state. In this paper we develop tools that enable the detection of steady states that are modeled by fixed points in discrete finite dynamical systems. We discuss two algebraic models, a univariate model and a multivariate model. We show that these two models are equivalent and that one can be converted to the other by means of a discrete Fourier transform. We give a new, more general definition of a linear finite dynamical system and we give a necessary and sufficient condition for such a system to be a fixed point system, that is, all cycles are of length one. We show how this result for generalized linear systems can be used to determine when certain nonlinear systems (monomial dynamical systems over finite fields are fixed point systems. We also show how it is possible to determine in polynomial time when an ordinary linear system (defined over a finite field is a fixed point system. We conclude with a necessary condition for a univariate finite dynamical system to be a fixed point system.

  17. Real-time frequency-to-time mapping based on spectrally-discrete chromatic dispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yitang; Li, Jilong; Zhang, Ziping; Yin, Feifei; Li, Wangzhe; Xu, Kun

    2017-07-10

    Traditional photonics-assisted real-time Fourier transform (RTFT) usually suffers from limited chromatic dispersion, huge volume, or large time delay and attendant loss. In this paper we propose frequency-to-time mapping (FTM) by spectrally-discrete dispersion to increase frequency sensitivity greatly. The novel media has periodic ON/OFF intensity frequency response while quadratic phase distribution along disconnected channels, which de-chirps matched optical input to repeated Fourier-transform-limited output. Real-time FTM is then obtained within each period. Since only discrete phase retardation rather than continuously-changed true time delay is required, huge equivalent dispersion is then available by compact device. Such FTM is theoretically analyzed, and implementation by cascaded optical ring resonators is proposed. After a numerical example, our theory is demonstrated by a proof-of-concept experiment, where a single loop containing 0.5-meters-long fiber is used. FTM under 400-MHz unambiguous bandwidth and 25-MHz resolution is reported. Highly-sensitive and linear mapping is achieved with 6.25 ps/MHz, equivalent to ~4.6 × 10 4 -km standard single mode fiber. Extended instantaneous bandwidth is expected by ring cascading. Our proposal may provide a promising method for real-time, low-latency Fourier transform.

  18. Synchronization of Markovian jumping stochastic complex networks with distributed time delays and probabilistic interval discrete time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Hongjie; Yue Dong

    2010-01-01

    The paper investigates the synchronization stability problem for a class of complex dynamical networks with Markovian jumping parameters and mixed time delays. The complex networks consist of m modes and the networks switch from one mode to another according to a Markovian chain with known transition probability. The mixed time delays are composed of discrete and distributed delays, the discrete time delay is assumed to be random and its probability distribution is known a priori. In terms of the probability distribution of the delays, the new type of system model with probability-distribution-dependent parameter matrices is proposed. Based on the stochastic analysis techniques and the properties of the Kronecker product, delay-dependent synchronization stability criteria in the mean square are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities which can be readily solved by using the LMI toolbox in MATLAB, the solvability of derived conditions depends on not only the size of the delay, but also the probability of the delay-taking values in some intervals. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Discrete-Feature Model Implementation of SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geier, Joel (Clearwater Hardrock Consulting, Corvallis, OR (United States))

    2010-03-15

    A discrete-feature model (DFM) was implemented for the Forsmark repository site based on the final site descriptive model from surface based investigations. The discrete-feature conceptual model represents deformation zones, individual fractures, and other water-conducting features around a repository as discrete conductors surrounded by a rock matrix which, in the present study, is treated as impermeable. This approximation is reasonable for sites in crystalline rock which has very low permeability, apart from that which results from macroscopic fracturing. Models are constructed based on the geological and hydrogeological description of the sites and engineering designs. Hydraulic heads and flows through the network of water-conducting features are calculated by the finite-element method, and are used in turn to simulate migration of non-reacting solute by a particle-tracking method, in order to estimate the properties of pathways by which radionuclides could be released to the biosphere. Stochastic simulation is used to evaluate portions of the model that can only be characterized in statistical terms, since many water-conducting features within the model volume cannot be characterized deterministically. Chapter 2 describes the methodology by which discrete features are derived to represent water-conducting features around the hypothetical repository at Forsmark (including both natural features and features that result from the disturbance of excavation), and then assembled to produce a discrete-feature network model for numerical simulation of flow and transport. Chapter 3 describes how site-specific data and repository design are adapted to produce the discrete-feature model. Chapter 4 presents results of the calculations. These include utilization factors for deposition tunnels based on the emplacement criteria that have been set forth by the implementers, flow distributions to the deposition holes, and calculated properties of discharge paths as well as

  20. Discrete-Feature Model Implementation of SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geier, Joel

    2010-03-01

    A discrete-feature model (DFM) was implemented for the Forsmark repository site based on the final site descriptive model from surface based investigations. The discrete-feature conceptual model represents deformation zones, individual fractures, and other water-conducting features around a repository as discrete conductors surrounded by a rock matrix which, in the present study, is treated as impermeable. This approximation is reasonable for sites in crystalline rock which has very low permeability, apart from that which results from macroscopic fracturing. Models are constructed based on the geological and hydrogeological description of the sites and engineering designs. Hydraulic heads and flows through the network of water-conducting features are calculated by the finite-element method, and are used in turn to simulate migration of non-reacting solute by a particle-tracking method, in order to estimate the properties of pathways by which radionuclides could be released to the biosphere. Stochastic simulation is used to evaluate portions of the model that can only be characterized in statistical terms, since many water-conducting features within the model volume cannot be characterized deterministically. Chapter 2 describes the methodology by which discrete features are derived to represent water-conducting features around the hypothetical repository at Forsmark (including both natural features and features that result from the disturbance of excavation), and then assembled to produce a discrete-feature network model for numerical simulation of flow and transport. Chapter 3 describes how site-specific data and repository design are adapted to produce the discrete-feature model. Chapter 4 presents results of the calculations. These include utilization factors for deposition tunnels based on the emplacement criteria that have been set forth by the implementers, flow distributions to the deposition holes, and calculated properties of discharge paths as well as

  1. Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

    2014-10-01

    This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A Review of Fuzzy Logic and Neural Network Based Intelligent Control Design for Discrete-Time Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiming Jiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last few decades, the intelligent control methods such as fuzzy logic control (FLC and neural network (NN control have been successfully used in various applications. The rapid development of digital computer based control systems requires control signals to be calculated in a digital or discrete-time form. In this background, the intelligent control methods developed for discrete-time systems have drawn great attentions. This survey aims to present a summary of the state of the art of the design of FLC and NN-based intelligent control for discrete-time systems. For discrete-time FLC systems, numerous remarkable design approaches are introduced and a series of efficient methods to deal with the robustness, stability, and time delay of FLC discrete-time systems are recommended. Techniques for NN-based intelligent control for discrete-time systems, such as adaptive methods and adaptive dynamic programming approaches, are also reviewed. Overall, this paper is devoted to make a brief summary for recent progresses in FLC and NN-based intelligent control design for discrete-time systems as well as to present our thoughts and considerations of recent trends and potential research directions in this area.

  3. Volatility Forecast in Crises and Expansions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergii Pypko

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available We build a discrete-time non-linear model for volatility forecasting purposes. This model belongs to the class of threshold-autoregressive models, where changes in regimes are governed by past returns. The ability to capture changes in volatility regimes and using more accurate volatility measures allow outperforming other benchmark models, such as linear heterogeneous autoregressive model and GARCH specifications. Finally, we show how to derive closed-form expression for multiple-step-ahead forecasting by exploiting information about the conditional distribution of returns.

  4. Modeling of asphalt by means of discrete element method – an initial study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Huan; Hededal, Ole; Stang, Henrik

    of conducting time-consuming and lab-costly procedures. The use of numerical models, capable of reducing greatly the testing cost, has shown great potential in characterizing asphalt-aggregate mixtures for both material evaluation and structural design purposes, [1],[2]. Discrete element method (DEM) is one...... – will be applied. The work presented here will focus on the discrete element method as a tool for modelling composite materials, i.e. determination of a representative volume; boundary conditions; characterisation of the components mastic (binder + filler) and aggregates; and establishment of virtual test samples....... Results from initial tests will be presented and the future development of the model towards characterising asphalt from its composition will be outlined....

  5. Impact of the rail-pad multi-discrete model upon the prediction of the rail response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazilu, T.; Leu, M.

    2017-08-01

    Wheel/rail vibration has many technical effects such as wear of the rolling surfaces, rolling noise, settlement of the ballast and subgrade etc. This vibration is depending on the rail pad characteristic and subsequently, it is important to have an accurate overview on the relation between the rail pad characteristic and the level of the wheel/rail vibration. To this end, much theoretical and experimental research has been developed in the past, and for the theoretical approach the track model, in general, and, particularly, the rail pad model is of crucial importance. Usually, the rail pad model is discrete model one, neglecting the length of the rail pad. This fact is questionable because the sleepers span is only 4 times the rail pad length. Using the rail pad discrete model, the rail response is overestimated when the frequency of the excitation equals the pinned-pinned resonance frequency. In this paper, a multi-discrete model for the rail pad, consisting in many Kelvin-Voigt parallel systems, is inserted into an analytical model of the track. The track model is reduced to a rail taken as infinite Timoshenko beam, discretely supported via rail pad, sleeper and ballast. The influence of the number of Kelvin-Voigt systems of the rail pad model on the rail response is analysed.

  6. Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

    2007-01-01

    Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....

  7. Autonomous learning by simple dynamical systems with a discrete-time formulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilen, Agustín M.; Kaluza, Pablo

    2017-05-01

    We present a discrete-time formulation for the autonomous learning conjecture. The main feature of this formulation is the possibility to apply the autonomous learning scheme to systems in which the errors with respect to target functions are not well-defined for all times. This restriction for the evaluation of functionality is a typical feature in systems that need a finite time interval to process a unit piece of information. We illustrate its application on an artificial neural network with feed-forward architecture for classification and a phase oscillator system with synchronization properties. The main characteristics of the discrete-time formulation are shown by constructing these systems with predefined functions.

  8. Should investors diversify their portfolios with stocks from major trading countries? A comparative multivariate GARCH-DCC and wavelet correlation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dwihasri, Dhaifina; Masih, Mansur

    2015-01-01

    The existing literature have evaluated the performance of stock markets without taking into account the time-varying correlations and different investment horizons of the investors. The present paper attempts to investigate to what extent the Indonesian sharia stock returns can earn portfolio diversification benefits if they are trading with sharia stocks from its major trading partners (China, Japan, United States). The recent Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation, the Continuou...

  9. Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...

  10. Discretization of space and time: determining the values of minimum length and minimum time

    OpenAIRE

    Roatta , Luca

    2017-01-01

    Assuming that space and time can only have discrete values, we obtain the expression of the minimum length and the minimum time interval. These values are found to be exactly coincident with the Planck's length and the Planck's time but for the presence of h instead of ħ .

  11. Discrete modelling of drapery systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoeni, Klaus; Giacomini, Anna

    2016-04-01

    Drapery systems are an efficient and cost-effective measure in preventing and controlling rockfall hazards on rock slopes. The simplest form consists of a row of ground anchors along the top of the slope connected to a horizontal support cable from which a wire mesh is suspended down the face of the slope. Such systems are generally referred to as simple or unsecured draperies (Badger and Duffy 2012). Variations such as secured draperies, where a pattern of ground anchors is incorporated within the field of the mesh, and hybrid systems, where the upper part of an unsecured drapery is elevated to intercept rockfalls originating upslope of the installation, are becoming more and more popular. This work presents a discrete element framework for simulation of unsecured drapery systems and its variations. The numerical model is based on the classical discrete element method (DEM) and implemented into the open-source framework YADE (Šmilauer et al., 2010). The model takes all relevant interactions between block, drapery and slope into account (Thoeni et al., 2014) and was calibrated and validated based on full-scale experiments (Giacomini et al., 2012).The block is modelled as a rigid clump made of spherical particles which allows any shape to be approximated. The drapery is represented by a set of spherical particle with remote interactions. The behaviour of the remote interactions is governed by the constitutive behaviour of the wire and generally corresponds to a piecewise linear stress-strain relation (Thoeni et al., 2013). The same concept is used to model wire ropes. The rock slope is represented by rigid triangular elements where material properties (e.g., normal coefficient of restitution, friction angle) are assigned to each triangle. The capabilities of the developed model to simulate drapery systems and estimate the residual hazard involved with such systems is shown. References Badger, T.C., Duffy, J.D. (2012) Drapery systems. In: Turner, A.K., Schuster R

  12. Discrete Emotion Effects on Lexical Decision Response Times

    OpenAIRE

    Briesemeister, Benny B.; Kuchinke, Lars; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2018-01-01

    Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far....

  13. Long- and Short-Term Cryptocurrency Volatility Components: A GARCH-MIDAS Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Conrad

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500 realized volatility has a negative and highly significant effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. The finding is atypical for volatility co-movements across financial markets. Moreover, we find that the S&P 500 volatility risk premium has a significantly positive effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. Finally, we find a strong positive association between the Baltic dry index and long-term Bitcoin volatility. This result shows that Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to global economic activity. Overall, our findings can be used to construct improved forecasts of long-term Bitcoin volatility.

  14. Quantum mechanical Hamiltonian models of discrete processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benioff, P.

    1981-01-01

    Here the results of other work on quantum mechanical Hamiltonian models of Turing machines are extended to include any discrete process T on a countably infinite set A. The models are constructed here by use of scattering phase shifts from successive scatterers to turn on successive step interactions. Also a locality requirement is imposed. The construction is done by first associating with each process T a model quantum system M with associated Hilbert space H/sub M/ and step operator U/sub T/. Since U/sub T/ is not unitary in general, M, H/sub M/, and U/sub T/ are extended into a (continuous time) Hamiltonian model on a larger space which satisfies the locality requirement. The construction is compared with the minimal unitary dilation of U/sub T/. It is seen that the model constructed here is larger than the minimal one. However, the minimal one does not satisfy the locality requirement

  15. The SMM Model as a Boundary Value Problem Using the Discrete Diffusion Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Joel

    2007-01-01

    A generalized single step stepwise mutation model (SMM) is developed that takes into account an arbitrary initial state to a certain partial difference equation. This is solved in both the approximate continuum limit and the more exact discrete form. A time evolution model is developed for Y DNA or mtDNA that takes into account the reflective boundary modeling minimum microsatellite length and the original difference equation. A comparison is made between the more widely known continuum Gaussian model and a discrete model, which is based on modified Bessel functions of the first kind. A correction is made to the SMM model for the probability that two individuals are related that takes into account a reflecting boundary modeling minimum microsatellite length. This method is generalized to take into account the general n-step model and exact solutions are found. A new model is proposed for the step distribution.

  16. A study of discrete nonlinear systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhillon, H.S.

    2001-04-01

    An investigation of various spatially discrete time-independent nonlinear models was undertaken. These models are generically applicable to many different physical systems including electron-phonon interactions in solids, magnetic multilayers, layered superconductors and classical lattice systems. To characterise the possible magnetic structures created on magnetic multilayers a model has been formulated and studied. The Euler-Lagrange equation for this model is a discrete version of the Sine-Gordon equation. Solutions of this equation are generated by applying the methods of Chaotic Dynamics - treating the space variable associated with the layer number as a discrete time variable. The states found indicate periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic structures. Analytic solutions to the discrete nonlinear Schroedinger Equation (DNSE) with cubic nonlinearity are presented in the strong coupling limit. Using these as a starting point, a procedure is developed to determine the wave function and the energy eigenvalue for moderate coupling. The energy eigenvalues of the different structures of the wave function are found to be in excellent agreement with the exact strong coupling result. The solutions to the DNSE indicate commensurate and incommensurate spatial structures associated with different localisation patterns of the wave function. The states which arise may be fractal, periodic, quasiperiodic or chaotic. This work is then extended to solve a first order discrete nonlinear equation. The exact solutions for both the first and second order discrete nonlinear equations with cubic nonlinearity suggests that this method of studying discrete nonlinear equations may be applied to solve discrete equations with any order difference and cubic nonlinearity. (author)

  17. Guaranteed Cost Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Positive Impulsive Switched Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leipo Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the guaranteed cost finite-time boundedness of discrete-time positive impulsive switched systems. Firstly, the definition of guaranteed cost finite-time boundedness is introduced. By using the multiple linear copositive Lyapunov function (MLCLF and average dwell time (ADT approach, a state feedback controller is designed and sufficient conditions are obtained to guarantee that the corresponding closed-loop system is guaranteed cost finite-time boundedness (GCFTB. Such conditions can be solved by linear programming. Finally, a numerical example is provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. Modeling discrete and rhythmic movements through motor primitives: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degallier, Sarah; Ijspeert, Auke

    2010-10-01

    Rhythmic and discrete movements are frequently considered separately in motor control, probably because different techniques are commonly used to study and model them. Yet the increasing interest in finding a comprehensive model for movement generation requires bridging the different perspectives arising from the study of those two types of movements. In this article, we consider discrete and rhythmic movements within the framework of motor primitives, i.e., of modular generation of movements. In this way we hope to gain an insight into the functional relationships between discrete and rhythmic movements and thus into a suitable representation for both of them. Within this framework we can define four possible categories of modeling for discrete and rhythmic movements depending on the required command signals and on the spinal processes involved in the generation of the movements. These categories are first discussed in terms of biological concepts such as force fields and central pattern generators and then illustrated by several mathematical models based on dynamical system theory. A discussion on the plausibility of theses models concludes the work.

  19. An application of a discrete fixed point theorem to the Cournot model

    OpenAIRE

    Sato, Junichi

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we apply a discrete fixed point theorem of [7] to the Cournot model [1]. Then we can deal with the Cournot model where the production of the enterprises is discrete. To handle it, we define a discrete Cournot-Nash equilibrium, and prove its existence.

  20. Comparing the Discrete and Continuous Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2008-01-01

    The solutions of the discrete logistic growth model based on a difference equation and the continuous logistic growth model based on a differential equation are compared and contrasted. The investigation is conducted using a dynamic interactive spreadsheet. (Contains 5 figures.)

  1. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

  2. Video modeling to train staff to implement discrete-trial instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catania, Cynthia N; Almeida, Daniel; Liu-Constant, Brian; DiGennaro Reed, Florence D

    2009-01-01

    Three new direct-service staff participated in a program that used a video model to train target skills needed to conduct a discrete-trial session. Percentage accuracy in completing a discrete-trial teaching session was evaluated using a multiple baseline design across participants. During baseline, performances ranged from a mean of 12% to 63% accuracy. During video modeling, there was an immediate increase in accuracy to a mean of 98%, 85%, and 94% for each participant. Performance during maintenance and generalization probes remained at high levels. Results suggest that video modeling can be an effective technique to train staff to conduct discrete-trial sessions.

  3. State estimation for discrete-time Markovian jumping neural networks with mixed mode-dependent delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yurong; Wang Zidong; Liu Xiaohui

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, we investigate the state estimation problem for a new class of discrete-time neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters as well as mode-dependent mixed time-delays. The parameters of the discrete-time neural networks are subject to the switching from one mode to another at different times according to a Markov chain, and the mixed time-delays consist of both discrete and distributed delays that are dependent on the Markovian jumping mode. New techniques are developed to deal with the mixed time-delays in the discrete-time setting, and a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional is put forward to reflect the mode-dependent time-delays. Sufficient conditions are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) that guarantee the existence of the state estimators. We show that both the existence conditions and the explicit expression of the desired estimator can be characterized in terms of the solution to an LMI. A numerical example is exploited to show the usefulness of the derived LMI-based conditions

  4. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  5. The time-dependent 3D discrete ordinates code TORT-TD with thermal-hydraulic feedback by ATHLET models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seubert, A.; Velkov, K.; Langenbuch, S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the time-dependent 3D discrete ordinates transport code TORT-TD. Thermal-hydraulic feedback is considered by coupling TORT-TD with the thermal-hydraulics system code ATHLET. The coupled code TORT-TD/ATHLET allows 3D pin-by-pin analyses of transients in few energy groups and anisotropic scattering by solving the time-dependent transport equation using the unconditionally stable implicit method. The nuclear cross sections are interpolated between pre-calculated table values of fuel temperature, moderator density and boron concentration. For verification of the implementation, selected test cases have been calculated by TORT-TD/ATHLET. They include a control rod ejection transient in a small PWR fuel assembly arrangement and a local boron concentration change in a single PWR fuel assembly. In the latter, special attention has been paid to study the influence of the thermal-hydraulic feedback modelling in ATHLET. The results obtained for a control rod ejection accident in a PWR quarter core demonstrate the applicability of TORT-TD/ATHLET. (authors)

  6. Geometry and Hamiltonian mechanics on discrete spaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talasila, V.; Clemente Gallardo, J.J.; Clemente-Gallardo, J.; van der Schaft, Arjan

    2004-01-01

    Numerical simulation is often crucial for analysing the behaviour of many complex systems which do not admit analytic solutions. To this end, one either converts a 'smooth' model into a discrete (in space and time) model, or models systems directly at a discrete level. The goal of this paper is to

  7. Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

    2006-01-01

    In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

  8. Phase Chaos and Multistability in the Discrete Kuramoto Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maistrenko, V. L.; Vasylenko, A. A.; Maistrenko, Y. L.

    2008-01-01

    The paper describes the appearance of a novel high-dimensional chaotic regime, called phase chaos, in the discrete Kuramoto model of globally coupled phase oscillators. This type of chaos is observed at small and intermediate values of the coupling strength. It is caused by the nonlinear interact......The paper describes the appearance of a novel high-dimensional chaotic regime, called phase chaos, in the discrete Kuramoto model of globally coupled phase oscillators. This type of chaos is observed at small and intermediate values of the coupling strength. It is caused by the nonlinear...... interaction of the oscillators, while the individual oscillators behave periodically when left uncoupled. For the four-dimensional discrete Kuramoto model, we outline the region of phase chaos in the parameter plane, distinguish the region where the phase chaos coexists with other periodic attractors...

  9. Geometry and Hamiltonian mechanics on discrete spaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talasila, V.; Clemente-Gallardo, J.; Schaft, A.J. van der

    2004-01-01

    Numerical simulation is often crucial for analysing the behaviour of many complex systems which do not admit analytic solutions. To this end, one either converts a ‘smooth’ model into a discrete (in space and time) model, or models systems directly at a discrete level. The goal of this paper is to

  10. Quantum circuit dynamics via path integrals: Is there a classical action for discrete-time paths?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penney, Mark D.; Enshan Koh, Dax; Spekkens, Robert W.

    2017-07-01

    It is straightforward to compute the transition amplitudes of a quantum circuit using the sum-over-paths methodology when the gates in the circuit are balanced, where a balanced gate is one for which all non-zero transition amplitudes are of equal magnitude. Here we consider the question of whether, for such circuits, the relative phases of different discrete-time paths through the configuration space can be defined in terms of a classical action, as they are for continuous-time paths. We show how to do so for certain kinds of quantum circuits, namely, Clifford circuits where the elementary systems are continuous-variable systems or discrete systems of odd-prime dimension. These types of circuit are distinguished by having phase-space representations that serve to define their classical counterparts. For discrete systems, the phase-space coordinates are also discrete variables. We show that for each gate in the generating set, one can associate a symplectomorphism on the phase-space and to each of these one can associate a generating function, defined on two copies of the configuration space. For discrete systems, the latter association is achieved using tools from algebraic geometry. Finally, we show that if the action functional for a discrete-time path through a sequence of gates is defined using the sum of the corresponding generating functions, then it yields the correct relative phases for the path-sum expression. These results are likely to be relevant for quantizing physical theories where time is fundamentally discrete, characterizing the classical limit of discrete-time quantum dynamics, and proving complexity results for quantum circuits.

  11. GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS AND GARCH EFFECTS IN STOCK RETURN DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Craig A. Depken II

    2001-01-01

    It is shown that the volume of trade can be decomposed into proportional proxies for stochastic flows of good news and bad news into the market. Positive (good) information flows are assumed to increase the price of a financial vehicle while negative (bad) information flows decrease the price. For the majority of a sample of ten split-stocks it is shown that the proposed decomposition explains more GARCH than volume itself. Using the proposed decomposition, the variance of returns for younger...

  12. Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K.

    2004-01-01

    Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

  13. Discrete event simulation: Modeling simultaneous complications and outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quik, E.H.; Feenstra, T.L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To present an effective and elegant model approach to deal with specific characteristics of complex modeling. METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model with multiple complications and multiple outcomes that each can occur simultaneously was developed. In this DES model parameters,

  14. Discrete-continuous analysis of optimal equipment replacement

    OpenAIRE

    YATSENKO, Yuri; HRITONENKO, Natali

    2008-01-01

    In Operations Research, the equipment replacement process is usually modeled in discrete time. The optimal replacement strategies are found from discrete (or integer) programming problems, well known for their analytic and computational complexity. An alternative approach is represented by continuous-time vintage capital models that explicitly involve the equipment lifetime and are described by nonlinear integral equations. Then the optimal replacement is determined via the opt...

  15. Finite-Time Stability Analysis of Discrete-Time Linear Singular Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songlin Wo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The finite-time stability (FTS problem of discrete-time linear singular systems (DTLSS is considered in this paper. A necessary and sufficient condition for FTS is obtained, which can be expressed in terms of matrix inequalities. Then, another form of the necessary and sufficient condition for FTS is also given by using matrix-null space technology. In order to solve the stability problem expediently, a sufficient condition for FTS is given via linear matrix inequality (LMI approach; this condition can be expressed in terms of LMIs. Finally, an illustrating example is also given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Displacement in the parameter space versus spurious solution of discretization with large time step

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, Eduardo; Letellier, Christophe

    2004-01-01

    In order to investigate a possible correspondence between differential and difference equations, it is important to possess discretization of ordinary differential equations. It is well known that when differential equations are discretized, the solution thus obtained depends on the time step used. In the majority of cases, such a solution is considered spurious when it does not resemble the expected solution of the differential equation. This often happens when the time step taken into consideration is too large. In this work, we show that, even for quite large time steps, some solutions which do not correspond to the expected ones are still topologically equivalent to solutions of the original continuous system if a displacement in the parameter space is considered. To reduce such a displacement, a judicious choice of the discretization scheme should be made. To this end, a recent discretization scheme, based on the Lie expansion of the original differential equations, proposed by Monaco and Normand-Cyrot will be analysed. Such a scheme will be shown to be sufficient for providing an adequate discretization for quite large time steps compared to the pseudo-period of the underlying dynamics

  17. Zak Phase in Discrete-Time Quantum Walks

    OpenAIRE

    Puentes, G.; Santillán, O.

    2015-01-01

    We report on a simple scheme that may present a non-trivial geometric Zak phase ($\\Phi_{Zak}$) structure, which is based on a discrete-time quantum walk architecture. By detecting the Zak phase difference between two trajectories connecting adjacent Dirac points where the quasi-energy gap closes for opposite values of quasi-momentum ($k$), it is possible to identify geometric invariants. These geometric invariants correspond to $|\\Phi_{Zak}^{+(-)}-\\Phi_{Zak}^{-(+)}|=\\pi$ and $|\\Phi_{Zak}^{+(-...

  18. Dynamic modeling method for infrared smoke based on enhanced discrete phase model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhendong; Yang, Chunling; Zhang, Yan; Zhu, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    The dynamic modeling of infrared (IR) smoke plays an important role in IR scene simulation systems and its accuracy directly influences the system veracity. However, current IR smoke models cannot provide high veracity, because certain physical characteristics are frequently ignored in fluid simulation; simplifying the discrete phase as a continuous phase and ignoring the IR decoy missile-body spinning. To address this defect, this paper proposes a dynamic modeling method for IR smoke, based on an enhanced discrete phase model (DPM). A mathematical simulation model based on an enhanced DPM is built and a dynamic computing fluid mesh is generated. The dynamic model of IR smoke is then established using an extended equivalent-blackbody-molecule model. Experiments demonstrate that this model realizes a dynamic method for modeling IR smoke with higher veracity.

  19. A Parallel Framework with Block Matrices of a Discrete Fourier Transform for Vector-Valued Discrete-Time Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Soto-Quiros

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel implementation of a kind of discrete Fourier transform (DFT: the vector-valued DFT. The vector-valued DFT is a novel tool to analyze the spectra of vector-valued discrete-time signals. This parallel implementation is developed in terms of a mathematical framework with a set of block matrix operations. These block matrix operations contribute to analysis, design, and implementation of parallel algorithms in multicore processors. In this work, an implementation and experimental investigation of the mathematical framework are performed using MATLAB with the Parallel Computing Toolbox. We found that there is advantage to use multicore processors and a parallel computing environment to minimize the high execution time. Additionally, speedup increases when the number of logical processors and length of the signal increase.

  20. Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.

    1992-02-01

    Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)

  1. Incertidumbre, crecimiento del producto, inflación y depreciación cambiaria en México: Evidencia de modelos GARCH multivariados

    OpenAIRE

    Rodolfo Cermeño; Benjamín Oliva

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we investigate empirically the relationship among conditional mean and variances of exchange rate depreciation, inflation and output growth in Mexico using a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model (MGARCH-M). The study is performed with monthly data over the period 1993-2009. The results support the existence of a positive relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility as well as a negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on output growth. On the other hand, no...

  2. Strong Stability Preserving Property of the Deferred Correction Time Discretization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Liu, Yuan; Shu, Chi-Wang; Zhang, Mengping

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we study the strong stability preserving "SSP" property of a class of deferred correction time discretization methods, for solving the method-of-lines schemes approximating hyperbolic...

  3. Cycles of a discrete time bipolar artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Suisun; Chen, J.-S.; Yueh, W.-C.

    2009-01-01

    A discrete time bipolar neural network depending on two parameters is studied. It is observed that its dynamical behaviors can be classified into six cases. For each case, the long time behaviors can be summarized in terms of fixed points, periodic points, basin of attractions, and related initial distributions. Mathematical reasons are supplied for these observations and applications in cellular automata are illustrated.

  4. Asymptotic stability of discrete-time systems with time-varying delay subject to saturation nonlinearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.-F.

    2009-01-01

    The asymptotic stability problem for discrete-time systems with time-varying delay subject to saturation nonlinearities is addressed in this paper. In terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), a delay-dependent sufficient condition is derived to ensure the asymptotic stability. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the theoretical results.

  5. Explicit/multi-parametric model predictive control (MPC) of linear discrete-time systems by dynamic and multi-parametric programming

    KAUST Repository

    Kouramas, K.I.

    2011-08-01

    This work presents a new algorithm for solving the explicit/multi- parametric model predictive control (or mp-MPC) problem for linear, time-invariant discrete-time systems, based on dynamic programming and multi-parametric programming techniques. The algorithm features two key steps: (i) a dynamic programming step, in which the mp-MPC problem is decomposed into a set of smaller subproblems in which only the current control, state variables, and constraints are considered, and (ii) a multi-parametric programming step, in which each subproblem is solved as a convex multi-parametric programming problem, to derive the control variables as an explicit function of the states. The key feature of the proposed method is that it overcomes potential limitations of previous methods for solving multi-parametric programming problems with dynamic programming, such as the need for global optimization for each subproblem of the dynamic programming step. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Quantum circuit dynamics via path integrals: Is there a classical action for discrete-time paths?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penney, Mark D; Koh, Dax Enshan; Spekkens, Robert W

    2017-01-01

    It is straightforward to compute the transition amplitudes of a quantum circuit using the sum-over-paths methodology when the gates in the circuit are balanced, where a balanced gate is one for which all non-zero transition amplitudes are of equal magnitude. Here we consider the question of whether, for such circuits, the relative phases of different discrete-time paths through the configuration space can be defined in terms of a classical action, as they are for continuous-time paths. We show how to do so for certain kinds of quantum circuits, namely, Clifford circuits where the elementary systems are continuous-variable systems or discrete systems of odd-prime dimension. These types of circuit are distinguished by having phase-space representations that serve to define their classical counterparts. For discrete systems, the phase-space coordinates are also discrete variables. We show that for each gate in the generating set, one can associate a symplectomorphism on the phase-space and to each of these one can associate a generating function, defined on two copies of the configuration space. For discrete systems, the latter association is achieved using tools from algebraic geometry. Finally, we show that if the action functional for a discrete-time path through a sequence of gates is defined using the sum of the corresponding generating functions, then it yields the correct relative phases for the path-sum expression. These results are likely to be relevant for quantizing physical theories where time is fundamentally discrete, characterizing the classical limit of discrete-time quantum dynamics, and proving complexity results for quantum circuits. (paper)

  7. A Discrete Dynamical Model of Signed Partitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chiaselotti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We use a discrete dynamical model with three evolution rules in order to analyze the structure of a partially ordered set of signed integer partitions whose main properties are actually not known. This model is related to the study of some extremal combinatorial sum problems.

  8. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

  9. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  10. Data driven discrete-time parsimonious identification of a nonlinear state-space model for a weakly nonlinear system with short data record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relan, Rishi; Tiels, Koen; Marconato, Anna; Dreesen, Philippe; Schoukens, Johan

    2018-05-01

    Many real world systems exhibit a quasi linear or weakly nonlinear behavior during normal operation, and a hard saturation effect for high peaks of the input signal. In this paper, a methodology to identify a parsimonious discrete-time nonlinear state space model (NLSS) for the nonlinear dynamical system with relatively short data record is proposed. The capability of the NLSS model structure is demonstrated by introducing two different initialisation schemes, one of them using multivariate polynomials. In addition, a method using first-order information of the multivariate polynomials and tensor decomposition is employed to obtain the parsimonious decoupled representation of the set of multivariate real polynomials estimated during the identification of NLSS model. Finally, the experimental verification of the model structure is done on the cascaded water-benchmark identification problem.

  11. Factors associated with supermarket and convenience store closure: a discrete time spatial survival modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Joshua L; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2018-06-01

    While there is a literature on the distribution of food stores across geographic and social space, much of this research uses cross-sectional data. Analyses attempting to understand whether the availability of stores across neighborhoods is associated with diet and/or health outcomes are limited by a lack of understanding of factors that shape the emergence of new stores and the closure of others. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations spanning seven years (2006-2012) and tract-level census data in four US cities: Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; San Francisco, California. A spatial discrete-time survival model was used to identify factors associated with an earlier and/or later closure time of a store. Sales volume was typically the strongest indicator of store survival. We identified heterogeneity in the association between tract-level poverty and racial composition with respect to store survival. Stores in high poverty, non-White tracts were often at a disadvantage in terms of survival length. The observed patterns of store survival varied by some of the same neighborhood sociodemographic factors associated with lifestyle and health outcomes, which could lead to confusion in interpretation in studies of the estimated effects of introduction of food stores into neighborhoods on health.

  12. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  13. Report on the combined meeting of the core confinement and internal transport barrier expert group, confinement database and modeling expert group and edge pedestal expert group, 12-16 April 1999, Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janeschitz, G.; Connor, J.W.; Cordey, G.; Kardaun, O.; Mukhovatov, V.; Stambaugh, R.; Ryter, F.; Wakatani, M.

    1999-01-01

    This contribution to the ITER EDA Newsletter reports on the combined meeting of the core confinement and internal transport barrier expert group, confinement database and modeling expert group and edge pedestal expert group in Garching, Germany. This is the first workshop of its kind after the re-organisation of the expert groups. The new scheme of the meetings, namely to permit more interaction between groups by arranging them at the same time and location turned out to be very successful. The main issues discussed were for the Confinement Database: merging of edge pedestal and confinement data, improvement of the density- and magnetic shape parameters, addition of new dedicated threshold data, the effect of different divertors in JET; for the H-Mode Power Threshold Database: assembly of a new version of the database with about 650 time points from 10 tokamaks; for the 1-D Modelling Workshop: management of the database after the re-organisation of the Joint Central Team an ongoing efforts in plasma transport modelling; for the newly formed pedestal group: issues of the H-mode shear layer at the plasma edge. There was also an executive summary given of a recent USA workshop on internal transport barriers and regimes with weak or negative magnetic shear

  14. Time dependence linear transport III convergence of the discrete ordinate method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, D.G.

    1983-01-01

    In this paper the uniform pointwise convergence of the discrete ordinate method for weak and strong solutions of the time dependent, linear transport equation posed in a multidimensional, rectangular parallelepiped with partially reflecting walls is established. The first result is that a sequence of discrete ordinate solutions converges uniformly on the quadrature points to a solution of the continuous problem provided that the corresponding sequence of truncation errors for the solution of the continuous problem converges to zero in the same manner. The second result is that continuity of the solution with respect to the velocity variables guarantees that the truncation erros in the quadrature formula go the zero and hence that the discrete ordinate approximations converge to the solution of the continuous problem as the discrete ordinate become dense. An existence theory for strong solutions of the the continuous problem follows as a result

  15. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Niţoi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent period is to be avoided because it can have financial and economic consequences with a very high cost for Romania.

  16. Modelling volatility by variance decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the variance of the model to have a smooth time-varying structure of either additive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterisations describe both nonlinearity and structural change in the condit...

  17. Discrete event simulation tool for analysis of qualitative models of continuous processing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T. (Inventor); Basham, Bryan D. (Inventor); Harris, Richard A. (Inventor)

    1990-01-01

    An artificial intelligence design and qualitative modeling tool is disclosed for creating computer models and simulating continuous activities, functions, and/or behavior using developed discrete event techniques. Conveniently, the tool is organized in four modules: library design module, model construction module, simulation module, and experimentation and analysis. The library design module supports the building of library knowledge including component classes and elements pertinent to a particular domain of continuous activities, functions, and behavior being modeled. The continuous behavior is defined discretely with respect to invocation statements, effect statements, and time delays. The functionality of the components is defined in terms of variable cluster instances, independent processes, and modes, further defined in terms of mode transition processes and mode dependent processes. Model construction utilizes the hierarchy of libraries and connects them with appropriate relations. The simulation executes a specialized initialization routine and executes events in a manner that includes selective inherency of characteristics through a time and event schema until the event queue in the simulator is emptied. The experimentation and analysis module supports analysis through the generation of appropriate log files and graphics developments and includes the ability of log file comparisons.

  18. Invariant set computation for constrained uncertain discrete-time systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Athanasopoulos, N.; Bitsoris, G.

    2010-01-01

    In this article a novel approach to the determination of polytopic invariant sets for constrained discrete-time linear uncertain systems is presented. First, the problem of stabilizing a prespecified initial condition set in the presence of input and state constraints is addressed. Second, the

  19. Aggregation patterns from nonlocal interactions: Discrete stochastic and continuum modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Hackett-Jones, Emily J.

    2012-04-17

    Conservation equations governed by a nonlocal interaction potential generate aggregates from an initial uniform distribution of particles. We address the evolution and formation of these aggregating steady states when the interaction potential has both attractive and repulsive singularities. Currently, no existence theory for such potentials is available. We develop and compare two complementary solution methods, a continuous pseudoinverse method and a discrete stochastic lattice approach, and formally show a connection between the two. Interesting aggregation patterns involving multiple peaks for a simple doubly singular attractive-repulsive potential are determined. For a swarming Morse potential, characteristic slow-fast dynamics in the scaled inverse energy is observed in the evolution to steady state in both the continuous and discrete approaches. The discrete approach is found to be remarkably robust to modifications in movement rules, related to the potential function. The comparable evolution dynamics and steady states of the discrete model with the continuum model suggest that the discrete stochastic approach is a promising way of probing aggregation patterns arising from two- and three-dimensional nonlocal interaction conservation equations. © 2012 American Physical Society.

  20. Interfacial properties in a discrete model for tumor growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moglia, Belén; Guisoni, Nara; Albano, Ezequiel V.

    2013-03-01

    We propose and study, by means of Monte Carlo numerical simulations, a minimal discrete model for avascular tumor growth, which can also be applied for the description of cell cultures in vitro. The interface of the tumor is self-affine and its width can be characterized by the following exponents: (i) the growth exponent β=0.32(2) that governs the early time regime, (ii) the roughness exponent α=0.49(2) related to the fluctuations in the stationary regime, and (iii) the dynamic exponent z=α/β≃1.49(2), which measures the propagation of correlations in the direction parallel to the interface, e.g., ξ∝t1/z, where ξ is the parallel correlation length. Therefore, the interface belongs to the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class, in agreement with recent experiments of cell cultures in vitro. Furthermore, density profiles of the growing cells are rationalized in terms of traveling waves that are solutions of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. In this way, we achieved excellent agreement between the simulation results of the discrete model and the continuous description of the growth front of the culture or tumor.