Discrete stochastic processes and applications
Collet, Jean-François
2018-01-01
This unique text for beginning graduate students gives a self-contained introduction to the mathematical properties of stochastics and presents their applications to Markov processes, coding theory, population dynamics, and search engine design. The book is ideal for a newly designed course in an introduction to probability and information theory. Prerequisites include working knowledge of linear algebra, calculus, and probability theory. The first part of the text focuses on the rigorous theory of Markov processes on countable spaces (Markov chains) and provides the basis to developing solid probabilistic intuition without the need for a course in measure theory. The approach taken is gradual beginning with the case of discrete time and moving on to that of continuous time. The second part of this text is more applied; its core introduces various uses of convexity in probability and presents a nice treatment of entropy.
Stochastic transport processes in discrete biological systems
Frehland, Eckart
1982-01-01
These notes are in part based on a course for advanced students in the applications of stochastic processes held in 1978 at the University of Konstanz. These notes contain the results of re cent studies on the stochastic description of ion transport through biological membranes. In particular, they serve as an introduction to an unified theory of fluctuations in complex biological transport systems. We emphasize that the subject of this volume is not to introduce the mathematics of stochastic processes but to present a field of theoretical biophysics in which stochastic methods are important. In the last years the study of membrane noise has become an important method in biophysics. Valuable information on the ion transport mechanisms in membranes can be obtained from noise analysis. A number of different processes such as the opening and closing of ion channels have been shown to be sources of the measured current or voltage fluctuations. Bio logical 'transport systems can be complex. For example, the tr...
Discrete stochastic processes and optimal filtering
Bertein, Jean-Claude
2012-01-01
Optimal filtering applied to stationary and non-stationary signals provides the most efficient means of dealing with problems arising from the extraction of noise signals. Moreover, it is a fundamental feature in a range of applications, such as in navigation in aerospace and aeronautics, filter processing in the telecommunications industry, etc. This book provides a comprehensive overview of this area, discussing random and Gaussian vectors, outlining the results necessary for the creation of Wiener and adaptive filters used for stationary signals, as well as examining Kalman filters which ar
Persistence of a continuous stochastic process with discrete-time sampling: non-Markov processes.
Ehrhardt, George C M A; Bray, Alan J; Majumdar, Satya N
2002-04-01
We consider the problem of "discrete-time persistence," which deals with the zero crossings of a continuous stochastic process X(T) measured at discrete times T=nDeltaT. For a Gaussian stationary process the persistence (no crossing) probability decays as exp(-theta(D)T)=[rho(a)](n) for large n, where a=exp(-DeltaT/2) and the discrete persistence exponent theta(D) is given by theta(D)=(ln rho)/(2 ln a). Using the "independent interval approximation," we show how theta(D) varies with DeltaT for small DeltaT and conclude that experimental measurements of persistence for smooth processes, such as diffusion, are less sensitive to the effects of discrete sampling than measurements of a randomly accelerated particle or random walker. We extend the matrix method developed by us previously [Phys. Rev. E 64, 015101(R) (2001)] to determine rho(a) for a two-dimensional random walk and the one-dimensional random-acceleration problem. We also consider "alternating persistence," which corresponds to a<0, and calculate rho(a) for this case.
Parzen, Emanuel
1962-01-01
Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine
Discrete-event control of stochastic networks multimodularity and regularity
Altman, Eitan; Hordijk, Arie
2003-01-01
Opening new directions in research in both discrete event dynamic systems as well as in stochastic control, this volume focuses on a wide class of control and of optimization problems over sequences of integer numbers. This is a counterpart of convex optimization in the setting of discrete optimization. The theory developed is applied to the control of stochastic discrete-event dynamic systems. Some applications are admission, routing, service allocation and vacation control in queueing networks. Pure and applied mathematicians will enjoy reading the book since it brings together many disciplines in mathematics: combinatorics, stochastic processes, stochastic control and optimization, discrete event dynamic systems, algebra.
Borodin, Andrei N
2017-01-01
This book provides a rigorous yet accessible introduction to the theory of stochastic processes. A significant part of the book is devoted to the classic theory of stochastic processes. In turn, it also presents proofs of well-known results, sometimes together with new approaches. Moreover, the book explores topics not previously covered elsewhere, such as distributions of functionals of diffusions stopped at different random times, the Brownian local time, diffusions with jumps, and an invariance principle for random walks and local times. Supported by carefully selected material, the book showcases a wealth of examples that demonstrate how to solve concrete problems by applying theoretical results. It addresses a broad range of applications, focusing on concrete computational techniques rather than on abstract theory. The content presented here is largely self-contained, making it suitable for researchers and graduate students alike.
Stochastic processes in cell biology
Bressloff, Paul C
2014-01-01
This book develops the theory of continuous and discrete stochastic processes within the context of cell biology. A wide range of biological topics are covered including normal and anomalous diffusion in complex cellular environments, stochastic ion channels and excitable systems, stochastic calcium signaling, molecular motors, intracellular transport, signal transduction, bacterial chemotaxis, robustness in gene networks, genetic switches and oscillators, cell polarization, polymerization, cellular length control, and branching processes. The book also provides a pedagogical introduction to the theory of stochastic process – Fokker Planck equations, stochastic differential equations, master equations and jump Markov processes, diffusion approximations and the system size expansion, first passage time problems, stochastic hybrid systems, reaction-diffusion equations, exclusion processes, WKB methods, martingales and branching processes, stochastic calculus, and numerical methods. This text is primarily...
Essentials of stochastic processes
Durrett, Richard
2016-01-01
Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatm...
Dimension Reduction and Discretization in Stochastic Problems by Regression Method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
1996-01-01
The chapter mainly deals with dimension reduction and field discretizations based directly on the concept of linear regression. Several examples of interesting applications in stochastic mechanics are also given.Keywords: Random fields discretization, Linear regression, Stochastic interpolation...
Carpentier, Pierre; Cohen, Guy; De Lara, Michel
2015-01-01
The focus of the present volume is stochastic optimization of dynamical systems in discrete time where - by concentrating on the role of information regarding optimization problems - it discusses the related discretization issues. There is a growing need to tackle uncertainty in applications of optimization. For example the massive introduction of renewable energies in power systems challenges traditional ways to manage them. This book lays out basic and advanced tools to handle and numerically solve such problems and thereby is building a bridge between Stochastic Programming and Stochastic Control. It is intended for graduates readers and scholars in optimization or stochastic control, as well as engineers with a background in applied mathematics.
Characterization of Stochastic Dominance for Discrete Random Variable
Courtault, Jean-Michel; Crettez, Bertrand; Hayek, Naïla
2006-01-01
Working paper; Available characterizations of the various notions of stochastic dominance concern continuous random variables. Yet, discrete random variables are often used either in pedagogical presentations of stochastic dominance or in experimental tests of this notion. This note provides complete characterizations of the various notions of stochastic dominance for discrete random variables.
Improved stochastic approximation methods for discretized parabolic partial differential equations
Guiaş, Flavius
2016-12-01
We present improvements of the stochastic direct simulation method, a known numerical scheme based on Markov jump processes which is used for approximating solutions of ordinary differential equations. This scheme is suited especially for spatial discretizations of evolution partial differential equations (PDEs). By exploiting the full path simulation of the stochastic method, we use this first approximation as a predictor and construct improved approximations by Picard iterations, Runge-Kutta steps, or a combination. This has as consequence an increased order of convergence. We illustrate the features of the improved method at a standard benchmark problem, a reaction-diffusion equation modeling a combustion process in one space dimension (1D) and two space dimensions (2D).
Stochastic processes inference theory
Rao, Malempati M
2014-01-01
This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.
Composite stochastic processes
Kampen, N.G. van
Certain problems in physics and chemistry lead to the definition of a class of stochastic processes. Although they are not Markovian they can be treated explicitly to some extent. In particular, the probability distribution for large times can be found. It is shown to obey a master equation. This
Optimization of stochastic discrete systems and control on complex networks computational networks
Lozovanu, Dmitrii
2014-01-01
This book presents the latest findings on stochastic dynamic programming models and on solving optimal control problems in networks. It includes the authors' new findings on determining the optimal solution of discrete optimal control problems in networks and on solving game variants of Markov decision problems in the context of computational networks. First, the book studies the finite state space of Markov processes and reviews the existing methods and algorithms for determining the main characteristics in Markov chains, before proposing new approaches based on dynamic programming and combinatorial methods. Chapter two is dedicated to infinite horizon stochastic discrete optimal control models and Markov decision problems with average and expected total discounted optimization criteria, while Chapter three develops a special game-theoretical approach to Markov decision processes and stochastic discrete optimal control problems. In closing, the book's final chapter is devoted to finite horizon stochastic con...
Research in Stochastic Processes.
1984-10-01
description, from the stochastic point of view, of the celebrated Hodgkin - Huxley equations. Ph.D. students under Gopinath Kallianpur Victor Perez-Abreu...optimal filter in the general white noise model is shown to be a Markov process. More precisely, it is shown that Ft( Y ) and rt( y ) - the normalized...and unnormalized conditional distribution (where y is the white noise observation) regards as measure-valued processes either on the quasi- P
Stochastic conditional intensity processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bauwens, Luc; Hautsch, Nikolaus
2006-01-01
In this article, we introduce the so-called stochastic conditional intensity (SCI) model by extending Russell’s (1999) autoregressive conditional intensity (ACI) model by a latent common dynamic factor that jointly drives the individual intensity components. We show by simulations that the propos...... for a joint latent factor and show that its inclusion allows for an improved and more parsimonious specification of the multivariate intensity process...
Stochastic Spectral Descent for Discrete Graphical Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlson, David; Hsieh, Ya-Ping; Collins, Edo; Carin, Lawrence; Cevher, Volkan
2015-01-01
Interest in deep probabilistic graphical models has in-creased in recent years, due to their state-of-the-art performance on many machine learning applications. Such models are typically trained with the stochastic gradient method, which can take a significant number of iterations to converge. Since the computational cost of gradient estimation is prohibitive even for modestly sized models, training becomes slow and practically usable models are kept small. In this paper we propose a new, largely tuning-free algorithm to address this problem. Our approach derives novel majorization bounds based on the Schatten- norm. Intriguingly, the minimizers of these bounds can be interpreted as gradient methods in a non-Euclidean space. We thus propose using a stochastic gradient method in non-Euclidean space. We both provide simple conditions under which our algorithm is guaranteed to converge, and demonstrate empirically that our algorithm leads to dramatically faster training and improved predictive ability compared to stochastic gradient descent for both directed and undirected graphical models.
Discreteness of the Spectrum of the Laplacian and Stochastic Incompleteness
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Harmer, Mark
2009-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 2 (2009), s. 358-372 ISSN 1050-6926 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LC06002 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : discrete spectrum * stochastic completeness * Laplacian Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 0.646, year: 2009
Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun
2012-01-01
it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...
Stochastic ℋ∞ Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Systems with Packet Loss
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yingqi Zhang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the stochastic finite-time stabilization and ℋ∞ control problem for one family of linear discrete-time systems over networks with packet loss, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, the dynamic model description studied is given, which, if the packet dropout is assumed to be a discrete-time homogenous Markov process, the class of discrete-time linear systems with packet loss can be regarded as Markovian jump systems. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions are established for the resulting closed-loop discrete-time system with Markovian jumps to be stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness and then state feedback controllers are designed to guarantee stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time stabilization of the class of stochastic systems. The stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the robust stochastic stabilization of the class of linear systems with packet loss. Finally, simulation examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the developed scheme.
Analysis of stochastic effects in Kaldor-type business cycle discrete model
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Sysolyatina, Anna
2016-07-01
We study nonlinear stochastic phenomena in the discrete Kaldor model of business cycles. A numerical parametric analysis of stochastically forced attractors (equilibria, closed invariant curves, discrete cycles) of this model is performed using the stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A spatial arrangement of random states in stochastic attractors is modeled by confidence domains. The phenomenon of noise-induced transitions ;chaos-order; is discussed.
Aggregation patterns from nonlocal interactions: Discrete stochastic and continuum modeling
Hackett-Jones, Emily J.
2012-04-17
Conservation equations governed by a nonlocal interaction potential generate aggregates from an initial uniform distribution of particles. We address the evolution and formation of these aggregating steady states when the interaction potential has both attractive and repulsive singularities. Currently, no existence theory for such potentials is available. We develop and compare two complementary solution methods, a continuous pseudoinverse method and a discrete stochastic lattice approach, and formally show a connection between the two. Interesting aggregation patterns involving multiple peaks for a simple doubly singular attractive-repulsive potential are determined. For a swarming Morse potential, characteristic slow-fast dynamics in the scaled inverse energy is observed in the evolution to steady state in both the continuous and discrete approaches. The discrete approach is found to be remarkably robust to modifications in movement rules, related to the potential function. The comparable evolution dynamics and steady states of the discrete model with the continuum model suggest that the discrete stochastic approach is a promising way of probing aggregation patterns arising from two- and three-dimensional nonlocal interaction conservation equations. © 2012 American Physical Society.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making Based on Discrete Linguistic Stochastic Variables
Ren, Jian; Gao, Yang; Bian, Can
2013-01-01
For solving the discrete linguistic stochastic multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete information, a new decision making method based on the differences between the superiorities and the inferiorities is proposed. According to the two basic parameters which are the possible outcome and the state probability, the superior decision matrix and the inferior decision matrix of the alternative set under each criterion are first worked out. Then, by the differences between the el...
Multivariable controller for discrete stochastic amplitude-constrained systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hannu T. Toivonen
1983-04-01
Full Text Available A sub-optimal multivariable controller for discrete stochastic amplitude-constrained systems is presented. In the approach the regulator structure is restricted to the class of linear saturated feedback laws. The stationary covariances of the controlled system are evaluated by approximating the stationary probability distribution of the state by a gaussian distribution. An algorithm for minimizing a quadratic loss function is given, and examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the sub-optimal controller.
A stochastic discrete optimization model for designing container terminal facilities
Zukhruf, Febri; Frazila, Russ Bona; Burhani, Jzolanda Tsavalista
2017-11-01
As uncertainty essentially affect the total transportation cost, it remains important in the container terminal that incorporates several modes and transshipments process. This paper then presents a stochastic discrete optimization model for designing the container terminal, which involves the decision of facilities improvement action. The container terminal operation model is constructed by accounting the variation of demand and facilities performance. In addition, for illustrating the conflicting issue that practically raises in the terminal operation, the model also takes into account the possible increment delay of facilities due to the increasing number of equipment, especially the container truck. Those variations expectantly reflect the uncertainty issue in the container terminal operation. A Monte Carlo simulation is invoked to propagate the variations by following the observed distribution. The problem is constructed within the framework of the combinatorial optimization problem for investigating the optimal decision of facilities improvement. A new variant of glow-worm swarm optimization (GSO) is thus proposed for solving the optimization, which is rarely explored in the transportation field. The model applicability is tested by considering the actual characteristics of the container terminal.
An introduction to stochastic processes with applications to biology
Allen, Linda J S
2010-01-01
An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Applications to Biology, Second Edition presents the basic theory of stochastic processes necessary in understanding and applying stochastic methods to biological problems in areas such as population growth and extinction, drug kinetics, two-species competition and predation, the spread of epidemics, and the genetics of inbreeding. Because of their rich structure, the text focuses on discrete and continuous time Markov chains and continuous time and state Markov processes.New to the Second EditionA new chapter on stochastic differential equations th
Stochastic processes an introduction
Jones, Peter Watts
2009-01-01
Some Background on ProbabilityIntroduction Probability Conditional probability and independence Discrete random variables Continuous random variables Mean and variance Some standard discrete probability distributions Some standard continuous probability distributions Generating functions Conditional expectationSome Gambling ProblemsGambler's ruin Probability of ruin Some numerical simulations Duration of the game Some variations of gambler's ruinRandom WalksIntroduction Unrestricted random walks The probability distribution after n steps First returns of the symmetric random walkMarkov ChainsS
An introduction to probability and stochastic processes
Melsa, James L
2013-01-01
Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
The dynamics of stochastic processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Basse-O'Connor, Andreas
In the present thesis the dynamics of stochastic processes is studied with a special attention to the semimartingale property. This is mainly motivated by the fact that semimartingales provide the class of the processes for which it is possible to define a reasonable stochastic calculus due...... to the Bichteler-Dellacherie Theorem. The semimartingale property of Gaussian processes is characterized in terms of their covariance function, spectral measure and spectral representation. In addition, representation and expansion of filtration results are provided as well. Special attention is given to moving...
Verification of Stochastic Process Calculi
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Skrypnyuk, Nataliya
process calculi. The description of a system in the syntax of a particular stochastic process calculus can be analysed in a compositional way, without expanding the state space by explicitly resolving all the interdependencies between the subsystems which may lead to the state space explosion problem....... In support of this claim we have developed analysis methods that belong to a particular type of Static Analysis { Data Flow / Pathway Analysis. These methods have previously been applied to a number of non-stochastic process calculi. In this thesis we are lifting them to the stochastic calculus...... description of a system. The presented methods have a clear application in the areas of embedded systems, (randomised) protocols run between a fixed number of parties etc....
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Multiple Criteria Decision Making Based on Discrete Linguistic Stochastic Variables
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jian Ren
2013-01-01
Full Text Available For solving the discrete linguistic stochastic multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete information, a new decision making method based on the differences between the superiorities and the inferiorities is proposed. According to the two basic parameters which are the possible outcome and the state probability, the superior decision matrix and the inferior decision matrix of the alternative set under each criterion are first worked out. Then, by the differences between the elements on the appropriate locations of these matrices, the corresponding dominant decision matrices are formed. Subsequently, with the help of the weight vector of the criterion set, the weighted integrated dominant decision matrix of the alternative set is built. Consequently, the weighted integrated dominant indices' sum of each alternative is calculated. Thus, the rank of the alternatives comes out. Finally, a numerical example is given. The result shows the superiority of the method.
Stochastic effects in a discretized kinetic model of economic exchange
Bertotti, M. L.; Chattopadhyay, A. K.; Modanese, G.
2017-04-01
Linear stochastic models and discretized kinetic theory are two complementary analytical techniques used for the investigation of complex systems of economic interactions. The former employ Langevin equations, with an emphasis on stock trade; the latter is based on systems of ordinary differential equations and is better suited for the description of binary interactions, taxation and welfare redistribution. We propose a new framework which establishes a connection between the two approaches by introducing random fluctuations into the kinetic model based on Langevin and Fokker-Planck formalisms. Numerical simulations of the resulting model indicate positive correlations between the Gini index and the total wealth, that suggest a growing inequality with increasing income. Further analysis shows, in the presence of a conserved total wealth, a simultaneous decrease in inequality as social mobility increases, in conformity with economic data.
Fourier analysis and stochastic processes
Brémaud, Pierre
2014-01-01
This work is unique as it provides a uniform treatment of the Fourier theories of functions (Fourier transforms and series, z-transforms), finite measures (characteristic functions, convergence in distribution), and stochastic processes (including arma series and point processes). It emphasises the links between these three themes. The chapter on the Fourier theory of point processes and signals structured by point processes is a novel addition to the literature on Fourier analysis of stochastic processes. It also connects the theory with recent lines of research such as biological spike signals and ultrawide-band communications. Although the treatment is mathematically rigorous, the convivial style makes the book accessible to a large audience. In particular, it will be interesting to anyone working in electrical engineering and communications, biology (point process signals) and econometrics (arma models). A careful review of the prerequisites (integration and probability theory in the appendix, Hilbert spa...
Introduction to stochastic processes
Cinlar, Erhan
2013-01-01
Clear presentation employs methods that recognize computer-related aspects of theory. Topics include expectations and independence, Bernoulli processes and sums of independent random variables, Markov chains, renewal theory, more. 1975 edition.
Esparza, Javier
In many areas of computer science entities can “reproduce”, “replicate”, or “create new instances”. Paramount examples are threads in multithreaded programs, processes in operating systems, and computer viruses, but many others exist: procedure calls create new incarnations of the callees, web crawlers discover new pages to be explored (and so “create” new tasks), divide-and-conquer procedures split a problem into subproblems, and leaves of tree-based data structures become internal nodes with children. For lack of a better name, I use the generic term systems with process creation to refer to all these entities.
Stochastic conditional intensity processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bauwens, Luc; Hautsch, Nikolaus
2006-01-01
model allows for a wide range of (cross-)autocorrelation structures in multivariate point processes. The model is estimated by simulated maximum likelihood (SML) using the efficient importance sampling (EIS) technique. By modeling price intensities based on NYSE trading, we provide significant evidence...
Dynamical and hamiltonian dilations of stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baumgartner, B.; Gruemm, H.-R.
1982-01-01
This is a study of the problem, which stochastic processes could arise from dynamical systems by loss of information. The notions of ''dilation'' and ''approximate dilation'' of a stochastic process are introduced to give exact definitions of this particular relationship. It is shown that every generalized stochastic process is approximately dilatable by a sequence of dynamical systems, but for stochastic processes in full generality one needs nets. (Author)
Stochastic processes and filtering theory
Jazwinski, Andrew H
1970-01-01
This unified treatment of linear and nonlinear filtering theory presents material previously available only in journals, and in terms accessible to engineering students. Its sole prerequisites are advanced calculus, the theory of ordinary differential equations, and matrix analysis. Although theory is emphasized, the text discusses numerous practical applications as well.Taking the state-space approach to filtering, this text models dynamical systems by finite-dimensional Markov processes, outputs of stochastic difference, and differential equations. Starting with background material on probab
Stochastic processes, slaves and supersymmetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Drummond, I T; Horgan, R R
2012-01-01
We extend the work of Tănase-Nicola and Kurchan on the structure of diffusion processes and the associated supersymmetry algebra by examining the responses of a simple statistical system to external disturbances of various kinds. We consider both the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for the process and the associated diffusion equation. The influence of the disturbances can be understood by augmenting the original SDE with an equation for slave variables. The evolution of the slave variables describes the behaviour of line elements carried along in the stochastic flow. These line elements, together with the associated surface and volume elements constructed from them, provide the basis of the supersymmetry properties of the theory. For ease of visualization, and in order to emphasize a helpful electromagnetic analogy, we work in three dimensions. The results are all generalizable to higher dimensions and can be specialized to one and two dimensions. The electromagnetic analogy is a useful starting point for calculating asymptotic results at low temperature that can be compared with direct numerical evaluations. We also examine the problems that arise in a direct numerical simulation of the stochastic equation together with the slave equations. We pay special attention to the dependence of the slave variable statistics on temperature. We identify in specific models the critical temperature below which the slave variable distribution ceases to have a variance and consider the effect on estimates of susceptibilities. (paper)
Hopf Bifurcation Analysis for a Stochastic Discrete-Time Hyperchaotic System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Ran
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of a discrete-time hyperchaotic system and the amplitude control of Hopf bifurcation for a stochastic discrete-time hyperchaotic system are investigated in this paper. Numerical simulations are presented to exhibit the complex dynamical behaviors in the discrete-time hyperchaotic system. Furthermore, the stochastic discrete-time hyperchaotic system with random parameters is transformed into its equivalent deterministic system with the orthogonal polynomial theory of discrete random function. In addition, the dynamical features of the discrete-time hyperchaotic system with random disturbances are obtained through its equivalent deterministic system. By using the Hopf bifurcation conditions of the deterministic discrete-time system, the specific conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation in the equivalent deterministic system are derived. And the amplitude control with random intensity is discussed in detail. Finally, the feasibility of the control method is demonstrated by numerical simulations.
Generation and monitoring of a discrete stable random process
Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O
2002-01-01
A discrete stochastic process with stationary power law distribution is obtained from a death-multiple immigration population model. Emigrations from the population form a random series of events which are monitored by a counting process with finite-dynamic range and response time. It is shown that the power law behaviour of the population is manifested in the intermittent behaviour of the series of events. (letter to the editor)
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Dupačová, J.; Sladký, Karel
2002-01-01
Roč. 82, 11/12 (2002), s. 753-765 ISSN 0044-2267 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/99/0264; GA ČR GA402/99/1136; GA MŠk 113200008 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : multistage stochastic programs with recourse * dynamic programming * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2002
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
Ambit processes and stochastic partial differential equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut
Ambit processes are general stochastic processes based on stochastic integrals with respect to Lévy bases. Due to their flexible structure, they have great potential for providing realistic models for various applications such as in turbulence and finance. This papers studies the connection between...... ambit processes and solutions to stochastic partial differential equations. We investigate this relationship from two angles: from the Walsh theory of martingale measures and from the viewpoint of the Lévy noise analysis....
Anomalous transport and stochastic processes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balescu, R. [Universite Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium)
1996-03-01
The relation between kinetic transport theory and theory of stochastic processes is reviewed. The Langevin equation formalism provides important, but rather limited information about diffusive processes. A quite promising new approach to modeling complex situations, such as transport in incompletely destroyed magnetic surfaces, is provided by the theory of Continuous Time Random Walks (CTRW), which is presented in some detail. An academic test problem is discussed in great detail: transport of particles in a fluctuating magnetic field, in the limit of infinite perpendicular correlation length. The well-known subdiffusive behavior of the Mean Square Displacement (MSD), proportional to t{sup 1/2}, is recovered by a CTRW, but the complete density profile is not. However, the quasilinear approximation of the kinetic equation has the form of a non-Markovian diffusion equation and can thus be generated by a CTRW. 16 refs., 3 figs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen-Jer Chang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available For nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems, a fuzzy controller design methodology is developed in this paper subject to state variance constraint and passivity constraint. According to fuzzy model based control technique, the nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems considered in this paper are represented by the discrete-time Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models with multiplicative noise. Employing Lyapunov stability theory, upper bound covariance control theory, and passivity theory, some sufficient conditions are derived to find parallel distributed compensation based fuzzy controllers. In order to solve these sufficient conditions, an iterative linear matrix inequality algorithm is applied based on the linear matrix inequality technique. Finally, the fuzzy stabilization problem for nonlinear discrete ship steering stochastic systems is investigated in the numerical example to illustrate the feasibility and validity of proposed fuzzy controller design method.
Efficient computation of parameter sensitivities of discrete stochastic chemical reaction networks
Rathinam, Muruhan; Sheppard, Patrick W.; Khammash, Mustafa
2010-01-01
Parametric sensitivity of biochemical networks is an indispensable tool for studying system robustness properties, estimating network parameters, and identifying targets for drug therapy. For discrete stochastic representations of biochemical networks where Monte Carlo methods are commonly used, sensitivity analysis can be particularly challenging, as accurate finite difference computations of sensitivity require a large number of simulations for both nominal and perturbed values of the parameters. In this paper we introduce the common random number (CRN) method in conjunction with Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm, which exploits positive correlations obtained by using CRNs for nominal and perturbed parameters. We also propose a new method called the common reaction path (CRP) method, which uses CRNs together with the random time change representation of discrete state Markov processes due to Kurtz to estimate the sensitivity via a finite difference approximation applied to coupled reaction paths that emerge naturally in this representation. While both methods reduce the variance of the estimator significantly compared to independent random number finite difference implementations, numerical evidence suggests that the CRP method achieves a greater variance reduction. We also provide some theoretical basis for the superior performance of CRP. The improved accuracy of these methods allows for much more efficient sensitivity estimation. In two example systems reported in this work, speedup factors greater than 300 and 10 000 are demonstrated.
Markov Decision Processes Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming
Puterman, Martin L
2005-01-01
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This text is unique in bringing together so many results hitherto found only in part in other texts and papers. . . . The text is fairly self-contained, inclusive of some basic mathematical results needed, and provides a rich diet
Parallel discrete-event simulation of FCFS stochastic queueing networks
Nicol, David M.
1988-01-01
Physical systems are inherently parallel. Intuition suggests that simulations of these systems may be amenable to parallel execution. The parallel execution of a discrete-event simulation requires careful synchronization of processes in order to ensure the execution's correctness; this synchronization can degrade performance. Largely negative results were recently reported in a study which used a well-known synchronization method on queueing network simulations. Discussed here is a synchronization method (appointments), which has proven itself to be effective on simulations of FCFS queueing networks. The key concept behind appointments is the provision of lookahead. Lookahead is a prediction on a processor's future behavior, based on an analysis of the processor's simulation state. It is shown how lookahead can be computed for FCFS queueing network simulations, give performance data that demonstrates the method's effectiveness under moderate to heavy loads, and discuss performance tradeoffs between the quality of lookahead, and the cost of computing lookahead.
Robust synchronization of an array of coupled stochastic discrete-time delayed neural networks.
Liang, Jinling; Wang, Zidong; Liu, Yurong; Liu, Xiaohui
2008-11-01
This paper is concerned with the robust synchronization problem for an array of coupled stochastic discrete-time neural networks with time-varying delay. The individual neural network is subject to parameter uncertainty, stochastic disturbance, and time-varying delay, where the norm-bounded parameter uncertainties exist in both the state and weight matrices, the stochastic disturbance is in the form of a scalar Wiener process, and the time delay enters into the activation function. For the array of coupled neural networks, the constant coupling and delayed coupling are simultaneously considered. We aim to establish easy-to-verify conditions under which the addressed neural networks are synchronized. By using the Kronecker product as an effective tool, a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to derive several sufficient criteria ensuring the coupled delayed neural networks to be globally, robustly, exponentially synchronized in the mean square. The LMI-based conditions obtained are dependent not only on the lower bound but also on the upper bound of the time-varying delay, and can be solved efficiently via the Matlab LMI Toolbox. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed synchronization scheme.
Rumor Processes on and Discrete Renewal Processes
Gallo, Sandro; Garcia, Nancy L.; Junior, Valdivino Vargas; Rodríguez, Pablo M.
2014-05-01
We study two rumor processes on , the dynamics of which are related to an SI epidemic model with long range transmission. Both models start with one spreader at site and ignorants at all the other sites of , but differ by the transmission mechanism. In one model, the spreaders transmit the information within a random distance on their right, and in the other the ignorants take the information from a spreader within a random distance on their left. We obtain the probability of survival, information on the distribution of the range of the rumor and limit theorems for the proportion of spreaders. The key step of our proofs is to show that, in each model, the position of the spreaders on can be related to a suitably chosen discrete renewal process.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šmíd, Martin
2009-01-01
Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf
American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ping LI
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.
Statistical inference for stochastic processes
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S
1980-01-01
The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...
Space-time-modulated stochastic processes.
Giona, Massimiliano
2017-10-01
Starting from the physical problem associated with the Lorentzian transformation of a Poisson-Kac process in inertial frames, the concept of space-time-modulated stochastic processes is introduced for processes possessing finite propagation velocity. This class of stochastic processes provides a two-way coupling between the stochastic perturbation acting on a physical observable and the evolution of the physical observable itself, which in turn influences the statistical properties of the stochastic perturbation during its evolution. The definition of space-time-modulated processes requires the introduction of two functions: a nonlinear amplitude modulation, controlling the intensity of the stochastic perturbation, and a time-horizon function, which modulates its statistical properties, providing irreducible feedback between the stochastic perturbation and the physical observable influenced by it. The latter property is the peculiar fingerprint of this class of models that makes them suitable for extension to generic curved-space times. Considering Poisson-Kac processes as prototypical examples of stochastic processes possessing finite propagation velocity, the balance equations for the probability density functions associated with their space-time modulations are derived. Several examples highlighting the peculiarities of space-time-modulated processes are thoroughly analyzed.
Space-time-modulated stochastic processes
Giona, Massimiliano
2017-10-01
Starting from the physical problem associated with the Lorentzian transformation of a Poisson-Kac process in inertial frames, the concept of space-time-modulated stochastic processes is introduced for processes possessing finite propagation velocity. This class of stochastic processes provides a two-way coupling between the stochastic perturbation acting on a physical observable and the evolution of the physical observable itself, which in turn influences the statistical properties of the stochastic perturbation during its evolution. The definition of space-time-modulated processes requires the introduction of two functions: a nonlinear amplitude modulation, controlling the intensity of the stochastic perturbation, and a time-horizon function, which modulates its statistical properties, providing irreducible feedback between the stochastic perturbation and the physical observable influenced by it. The latter property is the peculiar fingerprint of this class of models that makes them suitable for extension to generic curved-space times. Considering Poisson-Kac processes as prototypical examples of stochastic processes possessing finite propagation velocity, the balance equations for the probability density functions associated with their space-time modulations are derived. Several examples highlighting the peculiarities of space-time-modulated processes are thoroughly analyzed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ryashko, Lev [Ural Federal University, Lenina, 51, Ekaterinburg, 620000 (Russian Federation)
2015-11-30
A stabilization problem of the equilibrium of stochastically forced nonlinear discrete-time system with incomplete information is considered. Our approach uses a regulator which synthesizes the required stochastic sensitivity of the equilibrium. Mathematically, this problem is reduced to the solution of some quadratic matrix equations. A description of attainability sets and algorithms for regulators design is given. The general results are applied to the suppression of unwanted large-amplitude oscillations around the equilibria of the stochastically forced Verhulst model with noisy observations.
Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Granita; Bahar, Arifah
2015-01-01
The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution
Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)
2015-10-22
The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.
ON THE ANISOTROPIC NORM OF DISCRETE TIME STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS WITH STATE DEPENDENT NOISE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isaac Yaesh
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to determine conditions for the bound-edness of the anisotropic norm of discrete-time linear stochastic sys-tems with state dependent noise. It is proved that these conditions canbe expressed in terms of the feasibility of a specific system of matrixinequalities.
Statistical inference for discrete-time samples from affine stochastic delay differential equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Küchler, Uwe; Sørensen, Michael
2013-01-01
Statistical inference for discrete time observations of an affine stochastic delay differential equation is considered. The main focus is on maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators, which are easy to calculate in practice. A more general class of prediction-based estimating functions is investigated...
Modelling and application of stochastic processes
1986-01-01
The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...
Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory
Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe
1990-01-01
This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.
SIMMAP: Stochastic character mapping of discrete traits on phylogenies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bollback Jonathan P
2006-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Character mapping on phylogenies has played an important, if not critical role, in our understanding of molecular, morphological, and behavioral evolution. Until very recently we have relied on parsimony to infer character changes. Parsimony has a number of serious limitations that are drawbacks to our understanding. Recent statistical methods have been developed that free us from these limitations enabling us to overcome the problems of parsimony by accommodating uncertainty in evolutionary time, ancestral states, and the phylogeny. Results SIMMAP has been developed to implement stochastic character mapping that is useful to both molecular evolutionists, systematists, and bioinformaticians. Researchers can address questions about positive selection, patterns of amino acid substitution, character association, and patterns of morphological evolution. Conclusion Stochastic character mapping, as implemented in the SIMMAP software, enables users to address questions that require mapping characters onto phylogenies using a probabilistic approach that does not rely on parsimony. Analyses can be performed using a fully Bayesian approach that is not reliant on considering a single topology, set of substitution model parameters, or reconstruction of ancestral states. Uncertainty in these quantities is accommodated by using MCMC samples from their respective posterior distributions.
SIMMAP: stochastic character mapping of discrete traits on phylogenies.
Bollback, Jonathan P
2006-02-23
Character mapping on phylogenies has played an important, if not critical role, in our understanding of molecular, morphological, and behavioral evolution. Until very recently we have relied on parsimony to infer character changes. Parsimony has a number of serious limitations that are drawbacks to our understanding. Recent statistical methods have been developed that free us from these limitations enabling us to overcome the problems of parsimony by accommodating uncertainty in evolutionary time, ancestral states, and the phylogeny. SIMMAP has been developed to implement stochastic character mapping that is useful to both molecular evolutionists, systematists, and bioinformaticians. Researchers can address questions about positive selection, patterns of amino acid substitution, character association, and patterns of morphological evolution. Stochastic character mapping, as implemented in the SIMMAP software, enables users to address questions that require mapping characters onto phylogenies using a probabilistic approach that does not rely on parsimony. Analyses can be performed using a fully Bayesian approach that is not reliant on considering a single topology, set of substitution model parameters, or reconstruction of ancestral states. Uncertainty in these quantities is accommodated by using MCMC samples from their respective posterior distributions.
Stochastic cluster algorithms for discrete Gaussian (SOS) models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evertz, H.G.; Hamburg Univ.; Hasenbusch, M.; Marcu, M.; Tel Aviv Univ.; Pinn, K.; Muenster Univ.; Solomon, S.
1990-10-01
We present new Monte Carlo cluster algorithms which eliminate critical slowing down in the simulation of solid-on-solid models. In this letter we focus on the two-dimensional discrete Gaussian model. The algorithms are based on reflecting the integer valued spin variables with respect to appropriately chosen reflection planes. The proper choice of the reflection plane turns out to be crucial in order to obtain a small dynamical exponent z. Actually, the successful versions of our algorithm are a mixture of two different procedures for choosing the reflection plane, one of them ergodic but slow, the other one non-ergodic and also slow when combined with a Metropolis algorithm. (orig.)
Chen, Guiling; Li, Dingshi; Shi, Lin; van Gaans, Onno; Verduyn Lunel, Sjoerd
2018-03-01
We present new conditions for asymptotic stability and exponential stability of a class of stochastic recurrent neural networks with discrete and distributed time varying delays. Our approach is based on the method using fixed point theory, which do not resort to any Liapunov function or Liapunov functional. Our results neither require the boundedness, monotonicity and differentiability of the activation functions nor differentiability of the time varying delays. In particular, a class of neural networks without stochastic perturbations is also considered. Examples are given to illustrate our main results.
Is human failure a stochastic process?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dougherty, Ed M.
1997-01-01
Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance
Exponential stability result for discrete-time stochastic fuzzy uncertain neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mathiyalagan, K.; Sakthivel, R.; Marshal Anthoni, S.
2012-01-01
This Letter addresses the stability analysis problem for a class of uncertain discrete-time stochastic fuzzy neural networks (DSFNNs) with time-varying delays. By constructing a new Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional combined with the free weighting matrix technique, a new set of delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the robust exponential stability of the considered DSFNNs is established in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Finally, numerical examples with simulation results are provided to illustrate the applicability and usefulness of the obtained theory. -- Highlights: ► Applications of neural networks require the knowledge of dynamic behaviors. ► Exponential stability of discrete-time stochastic fuzzy neural networks is studied. ► Linear matrix inequality optimization approach is used to obtain the result. ► Delay-dependent stability criterion is established in terms of LMIs. ► Examples with simulation are provided to show the effectiveness of the result.
Banerjee, Mahan Raj; Succi, Sauro; Ansumali, Santosh; Adhikari, R.
2017-10-01
The dynamics of thermally fluctuating conserved order parameters are described by stochastic conservation laws. Thermal equilibrium in such systems requires the dissipative and stochastic components of the flux to be related by detailed balance. Preserving this relation in spatial and temporal discretization is necessary to obtain solutions that have fidelity to the continuum. Here, we propose a finite-difference discretization that preserves the detailed balance on the lattice, has a spatial error that is isotropic to leading order in lattice spacing, and can be integrated accurately in time using a delayed difference method. We benchmark the method for model B dynamics with a φ4 Landau free energy and obtain excellent agreement with the analytical results.
Lectures on Topics in Spatial Stochastic Processes
Capasso, Vincenzo; Ivanoff, B Gail; Dozzi, Marco; Dalang, Robert C; Mountford, Thomas S
2003-01-01
The theory of stochastic processes indexed by a partially ordered set has been the subject of much research over the past twenty years. The objective of this CIME International Summer School was to bring to a large audience of young probabilists the general theory of spatial processes, including the theory of set-indexed martingales and to present the different branches of applications of this theory, including stochastic geometry, spatial statistics, empirical processes, spatial estimators and survival analysis. This theory has a broad variety of applications in environmental sciences, social sciences, structure of material and image analysis. In this volume, the reader will find different approaches which foster the development of tools to modelling the spatial aspects of stochastic problems.
A new approach of stochastic dominance for ranking transformations on the discrete random variable
Gao, Jianwei; Zhao, Feng
2016-01-01
This paper develops some new stochastic dominance (SD) rules for ranking transformations on a random variable, which is the first time to study ranking approach for transformations on the discrete framework. By using the expected utility theory, the authors first present a sufficient condition for general transformations by first degree SD (FSD), and further develop it into the necessary and sufficient condition for the monotonic transformations. For the second degree SD (SSD) case, the autho...
Improved result on stability analysis of discrete stochastic neural networks with time delay
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu Zhengguang; Su Hongye; Chu Jian; Zhou Wuneng
2009-01-01
This Letter investigates the problem of exponential stability for discrete stochastic time-delay neural networks. By defining a novel Lyapunov functional, an improved delay-dependent exponential stability criterion is established in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. Meanwhile, the computational complexity of the newly established stability condition is reduced because less variables are involved. Numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the benefits of the proposed method.
Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2001-01-01
A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...
Minimum Entropy Rate Simplification of Stochastic Processes.
Henter, Gustav Eje; Kleijn, W Bastiaan
2016-02-23
This document contains supplemental material for the IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence article "Minimum Entropy Rate Simplification of Stochastic Processes." The supplement is divided into three appen- dices: the first on MERS for Gaussian processes, and the remaining two on, respectively, the theory and the experimental results of MERS for Markov chains.
Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process
Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.
2018-03-01
Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.
Hybrid Discrete-Continuous Markov Decision Processes
Feng, Zhengzhu; Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicholas; Washington, Rich
2003-01-01
This paper proposes a Markov decision process (MDP) model that features both discrete and continuous state variables. We extend previous work by Boyan and Littman on the mono-dimensional time-dependent MDP to multiple dimensions. We present the principle of lazy discretization, and piecewise constant and linear approximations of the model. Having to deal with several continuous dimensions raises several new problems that require new solutions. In the (piecewise) linear case, we use techniques from partially- observable MDPs (POMDPS) to represent value functions as sets of linear functions attached to different partitions of the state space.
ON REGRESSION REPRESENTATIONS OF STOCHASTIC-PROCESSES
RUSCHENDORF, L; DEVALK, [No Value
We construct a.s. nonlinear regression representations of general stochastic processes (X(n))n is-an-element-of N. As a consequence we obtain in particular special regression representations of Markov chains and of certain m-dependent sequences. For m-dependent sequences we obtain a constructive
Stationary stochastic processes theory and applications
Lindgren, Georg
2012-01-01
Some Probability and Process BackgroundSample space, sample function, and observablesRandom variables and stochastic processesStationary processes and fieldsGaussian processesFour historical landmarksSample Function PropertiesQuadratic mean propertiesSample function continuityDerivatives, tangents, and other characteristicsStochastic integrationAn ergodic resultExercisesSpectral RepresentationsComplex-valued stochastic processesBochner's theorem and the spectral distributionSpectral representation of a stationary processGaussian processesStationary counting processesExercisesLinear Filters - General PropertiesLinear time invariant filtersLinear filters and differential equationsWhite noise in linear systemsLong range dependence, non-integrable spectra, and unstable systemsThe ARMA-familyLinear Filters - Special TopicsThe Hilbert transform and the envelopeThe sampling theoremKarhunen-Loève expansionClassical Ergodic Theory and MixingThe basic ergodic theorem in L2Stationarity and transformationsThe ergodic th...
Probability of stochastic processes and spacetime geometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Canessa, E.
2007-01-01
We made a first attempt to associate a probabilistic description of stochastic processes like birth-death processes with spacetime geometry in the Schwarzschild metrics on distance scales from the macro- to the micro-domains. We idealize an ergodic system in which system states communicate through a curved path composed of transition arrows where each arrow corresponds to a positive, analogous birth or death rate. (author)
Semiclassical analysis for diffusions and stochastic processes
Kolokoltsov, Vassili N
2000-01-01
The monograph is devoted mainly to the analytical study of the differential, pseudo-differential and stochastic evolution equations describing the transition probabilities of various Markov processes. These include (i) diffusions (in particular,degenerate diffusions), (ii) more general jump-diffusions, especially stable jump-diffusions driven by stable Lévy processes, (iii) complex stochastic Schrödinger equations which correspond to models of quantum open systems. The main results of the book concern the existence, two-sided estimates, path integral representation, and small time and semiclassical asymptotics for the Green functions (or fundamental solutions) of these equations, which represent the transition probability densities of the corresponding random process. The boundary value problem for Hamiltonian systems and some spectral asymptotics ar also discussed. Readers should have an elementary knowledge of probability, complex and functional analysis, and calculus.
Ohkubo, Jun
2011-12-01
A scheme is developed for estimating state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients in a stochastic differential equation from time-series data. The scheme does not require to specify parametric forms for the drift and diffusion coefficients in advance. In order to perform the nonparametric estimation, a maximum likelihood method is combined with a concept based on a kernel density estimation. In order to deal with discrete observation or sparsity of the time-series data, a local linearization method is employed, which enables a fast estimation.
A Theory of Markovian Time-inconsistent Stochastic Control in Discrete Time
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Björk, Tomas; Murgoci, Agatha
2014-01-01
We develop a theory for a general class of discrete-time stochastic control problems that, in various ways, are time-inconsistent in the sense that they do not admit a Bellman optimality principle. We attack these problems by viewing them within a game theoretic framework, and we look for subgame...... and the optimal value function for the consistent problem coincide with the equilibrium control and value function, respectively for the time-inconsistent problem. To exemplify the theory, we study some concrete examples, such as hyperbolic discounting and mean–variance control....
Nonparametric estimation of stochastic differential equations with sparse Gaussian processes.
García, Constantino A; Otero, Abraham; Félix, Paulo; Presedo, Jesús; Márquez, David G
2017-08-01
The application of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of SDEs from a densely observed discrete time series. The use of Gaussian processes as priors permits working directly in a function-space view and thus the inference takes place directly in this space. To cope with the computational complexity that requires the use of Gaussian processes, a sparse Gaussian process approximation is provided. This approximation permits the efficient computation of predictions for the drift and diffusion terms by using a distribution over a small subset of pseudosamples. The proposed method has been validated using both simulated data and real data from economy and paleoclimatology. The application of the method to real data demonstrates its ability to capture the behavior of complex systems.
Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew Phillips
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instantiated with the stochastic simulation algorithm known as Gillespie's Direct Method. We also discuss the wider implications of such an abstract machine, and outline how it can be used to simulate multiple calculi simultaneously within a common framework.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dall-Anese, Emiliano [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhou, Xinyang [University of Colorado; Liu, Zhiyuan [University of Colorado; Chen, Lijun [University of Colorado
2017-10-03
This paper considers distribution networks with distributed energy resources and discrete-rate loads, and designs an incentive-based algorithm that allows the network operator and the customers to pursue given operational and economic objectives, while concurrently ensuring that voltages are within prescribed limits. Four major challenges include: (1) the non-convexity from discrete decision variables, (2) the non-convexity due to a Stackelberg game structure, (3) unavailable private information from customers, and (4) different update frequency from two types of devices. In this paper, we first make convex relaxation for discrete variables, then reformulate the non-convex structure into a convex optimization problem together with pricing/reward signal design, and propose a distributed stochastic dual algorithm for solving the reformulated problem while restoring feasible power rates for discrete devices. By doing so, we are able to statistically achieve the solution of the reformulated problem without exposure of any private information from customers. Stability of the proposed schemes is analytically established and numerically corroborated.
Convergence of posteriors for discretized log Gaussian Cox processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge
2004-01-01
In Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior computation for log Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs) a discretization of the continuously indexed Gaussian field is required. It is demonstrated that approximate posterior expectations computed from discretized LGCPs converge to the exact posterior expectations...... when the cell sizes of the discretization tends to zero. The effect of discretization is studied in a data example....
Bao, Haibo; Cao, Jinde
2011-01-01
This paper is concerned with the state estimation problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic neural networks (DSNNs) with random delays. The effect of both variation range and distribution probability of the time delay are taken into account in the proposed approach. The stochastic disturbances are described in terms of a Brownian motion and the time-varying delay is characterized by introducing a Bernoulli stochastic variable. By employing a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, sufficient delay-distribution-dependent conditions are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) that guarantee the existence of the state estimator which can be checked readily by the Matlab toolbox. The main feature of the results obtained in this paper is that they are dependent on not only the bound but also the distribution probability of the time delay, and we obtain a larger allowance variation range of the delay, hence our results are less conservative than the traditional delay-independent ones. One example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed result. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cseke, Botond; Schnoerr, David; Sanguinetti, Guido; Opper, Manfred
2016-01-01
We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajectories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference, giving rise to an expectation propagation type algorithm. For non-linear diffusion processes, this is achieved by leveraging moment closure approximations. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump processes by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these classes of inverse problems. (paper)
Stationary stochastic processes for scientists and engineers
Lindgren, Georg; Sandsten, Maria
2013-01-01
""This book is designed for a first course in stationary stochastic processes in science and engineering and does a very good job in introducing many concepts and ideas to students in these fields. … the book has probably been tested in the classroom many times, which also manifests itself in its virtual lack of typos. … Another great feature of the book is that it contains a wealth of worked example from many different fields. These help clarify concepts and theorems and I believe students will appreciate them-I certainly did. … The book is well suited for a one-semester course as it contains
A first course in stochastic processes
Karlin, Samuel
1975-01-01
The purpose, level, and style of this new edition conform to the tenets set forth in the original preface. The authors continue with their tack of developing simultaneously theory and applications, intertwined so that they refurbish and elucidate each other.The authors have made three main kinds of changes. First, they have enlarged on the topics treated in the first edition. Second, they have added many exercises and problems at the end of each chapter. Third, and most important, they have supplied, in new chapters, broad introductory discussions of several classes of stochastic processe
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Benseghir, Rym, E-mail: benseghirrym@ymail.com, E-mail: benseghirrym@ymail.com; Benchettah, Azzedine, E-mail: abenchettah@hotmail.com [LANOS Laboratory, Badji Mokhtar University, BP 12, 23000, Annaba (Algeria); Raynaud de Fitte, Paul, E-mail: prf@univ-rouen.fr [Normandie Univ, Laboratoire Raphaël Salem, UMR CNRS 6085, Rouen (France)
2015-11-30
A stochastic equation system corresponding to the description of the motion of a barotropic viscous gas in a discretized one-dimensional domain with a weight regularizing the density is considered. In [2], the existence of an invariant measure was established for this discretized problem in the stationary case. In this paper, applying a slightly modified version of Khas’minskii’s theorem [5], we generalize this result in the periodic case by proving the existence of a periodic measure for this problem.
XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes
Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo
2015-01-01
This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dongyan Chen
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the optimal Kalman filtering problem for a class of discrete stochastic systems with multiplicative noises and random two-step sensor delays. Three Bernoulli distributed random variables with known conditional probabilities are introduced to characterize the phenomena of the random two-step sensor delays which may happen during the data transmission. By using the state augmentation approach and innovation analysis technique, an optimal Kalman filter is constructed for the augmented system in the sense of the minimum mean square error (MMSE. Subsequently, the optimal Kalman filtering is derived for corresponding augmented system in initial instants. Finally, a simulation example is provided to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed filtering method.
Liu, Hongjian; Wang, Zidong; Shen, Bo; Huang, Tingwen; Alsaadi, Fuad E
2018-06-01
This paper is concerned with the globally exponential stability problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic memristive neural networks (DSMNNs) with both leakage delays as well as probabilistic time-varying delays. For the probabilistic delays, a sequence of Bernoulli distributed random variables is utilized to determine within which intervals the time-varying delays fall at certain time instant. The sector-bounded activation function is considered in the addressed DSMNN. By taking into account the state-dependent characteristics of the network parameters and choosing an appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, some sufficient conditions are established under which the underlying DSMNN is globally exponentially stable in the mean square. The derived conditions are made dependent on both the leakage and the probabilistic delays, and are therefore less conservative than the traditional delay-independent criteria. A simulation example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed stability criterion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
An Excursion-Theoretic Approach to Stability of Discrete-Time Stochastic Hybrid Systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chatterjee, Debasish, E-mail: chatterjee@control.ee.ethz.ch [ETH Zuerich, ETL I19 (Switzerland); Pal, Soumik, E-mail: soumik@math.washington.edu [University of Washington, Department of Mathematics (United States)
2011-04-15
We address stability of a class of Markovian discrete-time stochastic hybrid systems. This class of systems is characterized by the state-space of the system being partitioned into a safe or target set and its exterior, and the dynamics of the system being different in each domain. We give conditions for L{sub 1}-boundedness of Lyapunov functions based on certain negative drift conditions outside the target set, together with some more minor assumptions. We then apply our results to a wide class of randomly switched systems (or iterated function systems), for which we give conditions for global asymptotic stability almost surely and in L{sub 1}. The systems need not be time-homogeneous, and our results apply to certain systems for which functional-analytic or martingale-based estimates are difficult or impossible to get.
Stochastic processes from physics to finance
Paul, Wolfgang
2013-01-01
This book introduces the theory of stochastic processes with applications taken from physics and finance. Fundamental concepts like the random walk or Brownian motion but also Levy-stable distributions are discussed. Applications are selected to show the interdisciplinary character of the concepts and methods. In the second edition of the book a discussion of extreme events ranging from their mathematical definition to their importance for financial crashes was included. The exposition of basic notions of probability theory and the Brownian motion problem as well as the relation between conservative diffusion processes and quantum mechanics is expanded. The second edition also enlarges the treatment of financial markets. Beyond a presentation of geometric Brownian motion and the Black-Scholes approach to option pricing as well as the econophysics analysis of the stylized facts of financial markets, an introduction to agent based modeling approaches is given.
Chemical kinetics, stochastic processes, and irreversible thermodynamics
Santillán, Moisés
2014-01-01
This book brings theories in nonlinear dynamics, stochastic processes, irreversible thermodynamics, physical chemistry, and biochemistry together in an introductory but formal and comprehensive manner. Coupled with examples, the theories are developed stepwise, starting with the simplest concepts and building upon them into a more general framework. Furthermore, each new mathematical derivation is immediately applied to one or more biological systems. The last chapters focus on applying mathematical and physical techniques to study systems such as: gene regulatory networks and ion channels. The target audience of this book are mainly final year undergraduate and graduate students with a solid mathematical background (physicists, mathematicians, and engineers), as well as with basic notions of biochemistry and cellular biology. This book can also be useful to students with a biological background who are interested in mathematical modeling, and have a working knowledge of calculus, differential equatio...
Heidergott, B.F.; van den Boom, T.J.J.; de Schutter, B.
2007-01-01
Model predictive control (MPC) is a popular controller design technique in the process industry. Recently, MPC has been extended to a class of discrete event systems that can be described by a model that is "linear" in the max-plus algebra. In this context both the perturbations-free case and for
Stochastic processes and long range dependence
Samorodnitsky, Gennady
2016-01-01
This monograph is a gateway for researchers and graduate students to explore the profound, yet subtle, world of long-range dependence (also known as long memory). The text is organized around the probabilistic properties of stationary processes that are important for determining the presence or absence of long memory. The first few chapters serve as an overview of the general theory of stochastic processes which gives the reader sufficient background, language, and models for the subsequent discussion of long memory. The later chapters devoted to long memory begin with an introduction to the subject along with a brief history of its development, followed by a presentation of what is currently the best known approach, applicable to stationary processes with a finite second moment. The book concludes with a chapter devoted to the author’s own, less standard, point of view of long memory as a phase transition, and even includes some novel results. Most of the material in the book has not previously been publis...
Stochastic differential equations and diffusion processes
Ikeda, N
1989-01-01
Being a systematic treatment of the modern theory of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, the theory is developed within the martingale framework, which was developed by J.L. Doob and which plays an indispensable role in the modern theory of stochastic analysis.A considerable number of corrections and improvements have been made for the second edition of this classic work. In particular, major and substantial changes are in Chapter III and Chapter V where the sections treating excursions of Brownian Motion and the Malliavin Calculus have been expanded and refined. Sectio
Stochastic Energetics for Non-Gaussian Processes
Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Sagawa, Takahiro; Hayakawa, Hisao
2012-05-01
By introducing a new stochastic integral, we investigate the energetics of classical stochastic systems driven by non-Gaussian white noises. In particular, we introduce a decomposition of the total energy difference into the work and the heat for each trajectory, and derive a formula to calculate the heat from experimental data on the dynamics. We apply our formulation and results to a Langevin system driven by a Poisson noise.
Robust Proactive Project Scheduling Model for the Stochastic Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hongbo Li
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We study the project budget version of the stochastic discrete time/cost trade-off problem (SDTCTP-B from the viewpoint of the robustness in the scheduling. Given the project budget and a set of activity execution modes, each with uncertain activity time and cost, the objective of the SDTCTP-B is to minimize the expected project makespan by determining each activity’s mode and starting time. By modeling the activity time and cost using interval numbers, we propose a proactive project scheduling model for the SDTCTP-B based on robust optimization theory. Our model can generate robust baseline schedules that enable a freely adjustable level of robustness. We convert our model into its robust counterpart using a form of the mixed-integer programming model. Extensive experiments are performed on a large number of randomly generated networks to validate our model. Moreover, simulation is used to investigate the trade-off between the advantages and the disadvantages of our robust proactive project scheduling model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E Scholtz
2012-12-01
Full Text Available The cash management of an autoteller machine (ATM is a multi-objective optimisation problem which aims to maximise the service level provided to customers at minimum cost. This paper focus on improved cash management in a section of the South African retail banking industry, for which a decision support system (DSS was developed. This DSS integrates four Operations Research (OR methods: the vehicle routing problem (VRP, the continuous review policy for inventory management, the knapsack problem and stochastic, discrete-event simulation. The DSS was applied to an ATM network in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, to investigate 90 different scenarios. Results show that the application of a formal vehicle routing method consistently yields higher service levels at lower cost when compared to two other routing approaches, in conjunction with selected ATM reorder levels and a knapsack-based notes dispensing algorithm. It is concluded that the use of vehicle routing methods is especially beneficial when the bank has substantial control over transportation cost.
Visualisation for Stochastic Process Algebras: The Graphic Truth
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Smith, Michael James Andrew; Gilmore, Stephen
2011-01-01
There have historically been two approaches to performance modelling. On the one hand, textual language-based formalisms such as stochastic process algebras allow compositional modelling that is portable and easy to manage. In contrast, graphical formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets and stoch...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nishiura Hiroshi
2011-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting. Methods A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case study to the weekly incidence of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009 in Japan. By imposing a branching process approximation and by assuming the linear growth of cases within each reporting interval, the epidemic curve is predicted using only two parameters. The uncertainty bounds of the forecasts are computed using chains of conditional offspring distributions. Results The quality of the forecasts made before the epidemic peak appears largely to depend on obtaining valid parameter estimates. The forecasts of both weekly incidence and final epidemic size greatly improved at and after the epidemic peak with all the observed data points falling within the uncertainty bounds. Conclusions Real-time forecasting using the discrete time stochastic model with its simple computation of the uncertainty bounds was successful. Because of the simplistic model structure, the proposed model has the potential to additionally account for various types of heterogeneity, time-dependent transmission dynamics and epidemiological details. The impact of such complexities on forecasting should be explored when the data become available as part of the disease surveillance.
100 years after Smoluchowski: stochastic processes in cell biology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holcman, D; Schuss, Z
2017-01-01
100 years after Smoluchowski introduced his approach to stochastic processes, they are now at the basis of mathematical and physical modeling in cellular biology: they are used for example to analyse and to extract features from a large number (tens of thousands) of single molecular trajectories or to study the diffusive motion of molecules, proteins or receptors. Stochastic modeling is a new step in large data analysis that serves extracting cell biology concepts. We review here Smoluchowski’s approach to stochastic processes and provide several applications for coarse-graining diffusion, studying polymer models for understanding nuclear organization and finally, we discuss the stochastic jump dynamics of telomeres across cell division and stochastic gene regulation. (topical review)
Introduction to probability and stochastic processes with applications
Castañ, Blanco; Arunachalam, Viswanathan; Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu
2012-01-01
An easily accessible, real-world approach to probability and stochastic processes Introduction to Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications presents a clear, easy-to-understand treatment of probability and stochastic processes, providing readers with a solid foundation they can build upon throughout their careers. With an emphasis on applications in engineering, applied sciences, business and finance, statistics, mathematics, and operations research, the book features numerous real-world examples that illustrate how random phenomena occur in nature and how to use probabilistic t
Verification and Planning for Stochastic Processes with Asynchronous Events
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Younes, Hakan L
2005-01-01
.... The most common assumption is that of history-independence: the Markov assumption. In this thesis, the author considers the problems of verification and planning for stochastic processes with asynchronous events, without relying on the Markov assumption...
Analyzing Properties of Stochastic Business Processes By Model Checking
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin
2013-01-01
This chapter presents an approach to precise formal analysis of business processes with stochastic properties. The method presented here allows for both qualitative and quantitative properties to be individually analyzed at design time without requiring a full specification. This provides...
Discretization of Lévy semistationary processes with application to estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bennedsen, Mikkel; Lunde, Asger; Pakkanen, Mikko
Motivated by the construction of the Ito stochastic integral, we consider a step function method to discretize and simulate volatility modulated Lévy semistationary processes. Moreover, we assess the accuracy of the method with a particular focus on integrating kernels with a singularity...... at the origin. Using the simulation method, we study the finite sample properties of some recently developed estimators of realized volatility and associated parametric estimators for Brownian semistationary processes. Although the theoretical properties of these estimators have been established under high...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Angstmann, C.N.; Donnelly, I.C.; Henry, B.I.; Jacobs, B.A.; Langlands, T.A.M.; Nichols, J.A.
2016-01-01
We have introduced a new explicit numerical method, based on a discrete stochastic process, for solving a class of fractional partial differential equations that model reaction subdiffusion. The scheme is derived from the master equations for the evolution of the probability density of a sum of discrete time random walks. We show that the diffusion limit of the master equations recovers the fractional partial differential equation of interest. This limiting procedure guarantees the consistency of the numerical scheme. The positivity of the solution and stability results are simply obtained, provided that the underlying process is well posed. We also show that the method can be applied to standard reaction–diffusion equations. This work highlights the broader applicability of using discrete stochastic processes to provide numerical schemes for partial differential equations, including fractional partial differential equations.
Controlling roughening processes in the stochastic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation
Kalliadasis, Serafim; Gomes, Susana; Papageorgiou, Demetrios; Pavliotis, Greg; Pradas, Marc
2017-11-01
We present a novel methodology to control the roughening processes of semilinear parabolic stochastic partial differential equations in one dimension, which we exemplify with the stochastic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. The original equation is split into a linear stochastic and a nonlinear deterministic equation so that we can apply linear feedback control methods. Our control strategy is then based on two steps: first, stabilize the zero solution of the deterministic part and, second, control the roughness of the stochastic linear equation. We consider both periodic controls and point actuated ones, observing in all cases that the second moment of the solution evolves in time according to a power-law until it saturates at the desired controlled value. Furthermore, our control framework allows us to force the interfaces to have a prescribed shape. We observe from our numerical experiments that our results are valid for different types of nonlinearity (in particular, the Burgers and KPZ ones) as well as white and coloured noise.
An adaptive algorithm for simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferm, Lars; Hellander, Andreas; Loetstedt, Per
2010-01-01
We propose an adaptive hybrid method suitable for stochastic simulation of diffusion dominated reaction-diffusion processes. For such systems, simulation of the diffusion requires the predominant part of the computing time. In order to reduce the computational work, the diffusion in parts of the domain is treated macroscopically, in other parts with the tau-leap method and in the remaining parts with Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) as implemented in the next subvolume method (NSM). The chemical reactions are handled by SSA everywhere in the computational domain. A trajectory of the process is advanced in time by an operator splitting technique and the timesteps are chosen adaptively. The spatial adaptation is based on estimates of the errors in the tau-leap method and the macroscopic diffusion. The accuracy and efficiency of the method are demonstrated in examples from molecular biology where the domain is discretized by unstructured meshes.
Diffusive processes in a stochastic magnetic field
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, H.; Vlad, M.; Vanden Eijnden, E.; Spineanu, F.; Misguich, J.H.; Balescu, R.
1995-01-01
The statistical representation of a fluctuating (stochastic) magnetic field configuration is studied in detail. The Eulerian correlation functions of the magnetic field are determined, taking into account all geometrical constraints: these objects form a nondiagonal matrix. The Lagrangian correlations, within the reasonable Corrsin approximation, are reduced to a single scalar function, determined by an integral equation. The mean square perpendicular deviation of a geometrical point moving along a perturbed field line is determined by a nonlinear second-order differential equation. The separation of neighboring field lines in a stochastic magnetic field is studied. We find exponentiation lengths of both signs describing, in particular, a decay (on the average) of any initial anisotropy. The vanishing sum of these exponentiation lengths ensures the existence of an invariant which was overlooked in previous works. Next, the separation of a particle's trajectory from the magnetic field line to which it was initially attached is studied by a similar method. Here too an initial phase of exponential separation appears. Assuming the existence of a final diffusive phase, anomalous diffusion coefficients are found for both weakly and strongly collisional limits. The latter is identical to the well known Rechester-Rosenbluth coefficient, which is obtained here by a more quantitative (though not entirely deductive) treatment than in earlier works
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ali, M. Syed
2014-01-01
In this paper, the global asymptotic stability problem of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays (MJSCGNNs) is considered. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by constructing a new Lyapunov functional to guarantee the asymptotic stability of MJSCGNNs. Our results can be easily verified and they are also less restrictive than previously known criteria and can be applied to Cohen—Grossberg neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and cellular neural networks. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples
Su, Weiwei; Chen, Yiming
2009-02-01
The paper is concerned with the problem of robust asymptotic stability analysis of stochastic Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technology, some sufficient conditions are derived to ensure the global robust convergence of the equilibrium point. The proposed conditions can be checked easily by LMI Control Toolbox in Matlab. Furthermore, all the results are obtained under mild conditions, assuming neither differentiability nor strict monotonicity for activation function. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our results.
Wang, Tong; Ding, Yongsheng; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Kuangrong
2015-03-01
This paper considered the state estimation for stochastic neural networks of neutral type with discrete and distributed delays. By using available output measurements, the state estimator can approximate the neuron states, and the asymptotic property of the state error is mean square exponential stable and also almost surely exponential stable in the presence of discrete and distributed delays. Under the Lipschitz assumptions for the activation functions and the measurement nonlinearity, a delay-dependent linear matrix inequality (LMI) criterion is proposed to guarantee the existence of the desired estimators by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii function. It is shown that the existence conditions and the explicit expression of the state estimator can be parameterised in terms of the solution to a LMI. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the validity of the theoretical results and show that the theorem can provide less conservative conditions.
Discrete random signal processing and filtering primer with Matlab
Poularikas, Alexander D
2013-01-01
Engineers in all fields will appreciate a practical guide that combines several new effective MATLAB® problem-solving approaches and the very latest in discrete random signal processing and filtering.Numerous Useful Examples, Problems, and Solutions - An Extensive and Powerful ReviewWritten for practicing engineers seeking to strengthen their practical grasp of random signal processing, Discrete Random Signal Processing and Filtering Primer with MATLAB provides the opportunity to doubly enhance their skills. The author, a leading expert in the field of electrical and computer engineering, offe
Hybrid pathwise sensitivity methods for discrete stochastic models of chemical reaction systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wolf, Elizabeth Skubak, E-mail: ewolf@saintmarys.edu [Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Saint Mary’s College, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556 (United States); Anderson, David F., E-mail: anderson@math.wisc.edu [Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States)
2015-01-21
Stochastic models are often used to help understand the behavior of intracellular biochemical processes. The most common such models are continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs). Parametric sensitivities, which are derivatives of expectations of model output quantities with respect to model parameters, are useful in this setting for a variety of applications. In this paper, we introduce a class of hybrid pathwise differentiation methods for the numerical estimation of parametric sensitivities. The new hybrid methods combine elements from the three main classes of procedures for sensitivity estimation and have a number of desirable qualities. First, the new methods are unbiased for a broad class of problems. Second, the methods are applicable to nearly any physically relevant biochemical CTMC model. Third, and as we demonstrate on several numerical examples, the new methods are quite efficient, particularly if one wishes to estimate the full gradient of parametric sensitivities. The methods are rather intuitive and utilize the multilevel Monte Carlo philosophy of splitting an expectation into separate parts and handling each in an efficient manner.
Classical and spatial stochastic processes with applications to biology
Schinazi, Rinaldo B
2014-01-01
The revised and expanded edition of this textbook presents the concepts and applications of random processes with the same illuminating simplicity as its first edition, but with the notable addition of substantial modern material on biological modeling. While still treating many important problems in fields such as engineering and mathematical physics, the book also focuses on the highly relevant topics of cancerous mutations, influenza evolution, drug resistance, and immune response. The models used elegantly apply various classical stochastic models presented earlier in the text, and exercises are included throughout to reinforce essential concepts. The second edition of Classical and Spatial Stochastic Processes is suitable as a textbook for courses in stochastic processes at the advanced-undergraduate and graduate levels, or as a self-study resource for researchers and practitioners in mathematics, engineering, physics, and mathematical biology. Reviews of the first edition: An appetizing textbook for a f...
Analyzing Properties of Stochastic Business Processes By Model Checking
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin
2013-01-01
This chapter presents an approach to precise formal analysis of business processes with stochastic properties. The method presented here allows for both qualitative and quantitative properties to be individually analyzed at design time without requiring a full specification. This provides...... an effective means to explore possible designs for a business process and to debug any flaws....
Anomalous scaling of stochastic processes and the Moses effect.
Chen, Lijian; Bassler, Kevin E; McCauley, Joseph L; Gunaratne, Gemunu H
2017-04-01
The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time t is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like t^{1/2}. However, processes in which the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent differs from 1/2 are known. The search for possible origins of such "anomalous" scaling and approaches to quantify them are the motivations for the work reported here. In processes with stationary increments, where the stochastic process is time-independent, autocorrelations between increments and infinite variance of increments can cause anomalous scaling. These sources have been referred to as the Joseph effect and the Noah effect, respectively. If the increments are nonstationary, then scaling of increments with t can also lead to anomalous scaling, a mechanism we refer to as the Moses effect. Scaling exponents quantifying the three effects are defined and related to the Hurst exponent that characterizes the overall scaling of the stochastic process. Methods of time series analysis that enable accurate independent measurement of each exponent are presented. Simple stochastic processes are used to illustrate each effect. Intraday financial time series data are analyzed, revealing that their anomalous scaling is due only to the Moses effect. In the context of financial market data, we reiterate that the Joseph exponent, not the Hurst exponent, is the appropriate measure to test the efficient market hypothesis.
A Constructive Sharp Approach to Functional Quantization of Stochastic Processes
Junglen, Stefan; Luschgy, Harald
2010-01-01
We present a constructive approach to the functional quantization problem of stochastic processes, with an emphasis on Gaussian processes. The approach is constructive, since we reduce the infinite-dimensional functional quantization problem to a finite-dimensional quantization problem that can be solved numerically. Our approach achieves the sharp rate of the minimal quantization error and can be used to quantize the path space for Gaussian processes and also, for example, Lévy processes.
Learning Theory Estimates with Observations from General Stationary Stochastic Processes.
Hang, Hanyuan; Feng, Yunlong; Steinwart, Ingo; Suykens, Johan A K
2016-12-01
This letter investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by general, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that when the stochastic processes satisfy a generalized Bernstein-type inequality, a unified treatment on analyzing the learning schemes with various mixing processes can be conducted and a sharp oracle inequality for generic regularized empirical risk minimization schemes can be established. The obtained oracle inequality is then applied to derive convergence rates for several learning schemes such as empirical risk minimization (ERM), least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) using given generic kernels, and SVMs using gaussian kernels for both least squares and quantile regression. It turns out that for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) processes, our learning rates for ERM recover the optimal rates. For non-i.i.d. processes, including geometrically [Formula: see text]-mixing Markov processes, geometrically [Formula: see text]-mixing processes with restricted decay, [Formula: see text]-mixing processes, and (time-reversed) geometrically [Formula: see text]-mixing processes, our learning rates for SVMs with gaussian kernels match, up to some arbitrarily small extra term in the exponent, the optimal rates. For the remaining cases, our rates are at least close to the optimal rates. As a by-product, the assumed generalized Bernstein-type inequality also provides an interpretation of the so-called effective number of observations for various mixing processes.
Stochastic analysis in production process and ecology under uncertainty
Bieda, Bogusław
2014-01-01
The monograph addresses a problem of stochastic analysis based on the uncertainty assessment by simulation and application of this method in ecology and steel industry under uncertainty. The first chapter defines the Monte Carlo (MC) method and random variables in stochastic models. Chapter two deals with the contamination transport in porous media. Stochastic approach for Municipal Solid Waste transit time contaminants modeling using MC simulation has been worked out. The third chapter describes the risk analysis of the waste to energy facility proposal for Konin city, including the financial aspects. Environmental impact assessment of the ArcelorMittal Steel Power Plant, in Kraków - in the chapter four - is given. Thus, four scenarios of the energy mix production processes were studied. Chapter five contains examples of using ecological Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) - a relatively new method of environmental impact assessment - which help in preparing pro-ecological strategy, and which can lead to reducing t...
Gene regulation and noise reduction by coupling of stochastic processes.
Ramos, Alexandre F; Hornos, José Eduardo M; Reinitz, John
2015-02-01
Here we characterize the low-noise regime of a stochastic model for a negative self-regulating binary gene. The model has two stochastic variables, the protein number and the state of the gene. Each state of the gene behaves as a protein source governed by a Poisson process. The coupling between the two gene states depends on protein number. This fact has a very important implication: There exist protein production regimes characterized by sub-Poissonian noise because of negative covariance between the two stochastic variables of the model. Hence the protein numbers obey a probability distribution that has a peak that is sharper than those of the two coupled Poisson processes that are combined to produce it. Biochemically, the noise reduction in protein number occurs when the switching of the genetic state is more rapid than protein synthesis or degradation. We consider the chemical reaction rates necessary for Poisson and sub-Poisson processes in prokaryotes and eucaryotes. Our results suggest that the coupling of multiple stochastic processes in a negative covariance regime might be a widespread mechanism for noise reduction.
Discrete Control Processes, Dynamic Games and Multicriterion Control Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru Lozovanu
2002-07-01
Full Text Available The discrete control processes with state evaluation in time of dynamical system is considered. A general model of control problems with integral-time cost criterion by a trajectory is studied and a general scheme for solving such classes of problems is proposed. In addition the game-theoretical and multicriterion models for control problems are formulated and studied.
Yifat, Jonathan; Gannot, Israel
2015-03-01
Early detection of malignant tumors plays a crucial role in the survivability chances of the patient. Therefore, new and innovative tumor detection methods are constantly searched for. Tumor-specific magnetic-core nano-particles can be used with an alternating magnetic field to detect and treat tumors by hyperthermia. For the analysis of the method effectiveness, the bio-heat transfer between the nanoparticles and the tissue must be carefully studied. Heat diffusion in biological tissue is usually analyzed using the Pennes Bio-Heat Equation, where blood perfusion plays an important role. Malignant tumors are known to initiate an angiogenesis process, where endothelial cell migration from neighboring vasculature eventually leads to the formation of a thick blood capillary network around them. This process allows the tumor to receive its extensive nutrition demands and evolve into a more progressive and potentially fatal tumor. In order to assess the effect of angiogenesis on the bio-heat transfer problem, we have developed a discrete stochastic 3D model & simulation of tumor-induced angiogenesis. The model elaborates other angiogenesis models by providing high resolution 3D stochastic simulation, capturing of fine angiogenesis morphological features, effects of dynamic sprout thickness functions, and stochastic parent vessel generator. We show that the angiogenesis realizations produced are well suited for numerical bio-heat transfer analysis. Statistical study on the angiogenesis characteristics was derived using Monte Carlo simulations. According to the statistical analysis, we provide analytical expression for the blood perfusion coefficient in the Pennes equation, as a function of several parameters. This updated form of the Pennes equation could be used for numerical and analytical analyses of the proposed detection and treatment method. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Shi, Peng; Zhang, Yingqi; Chadli, Mohammed; Agarwal, Ramesh K
2016-04-01
In this brief, the problems of the mixed H-infinity and passivity performance analysis and design are investigated for discrete time-delay neural networks with Markovian jump parameters represented by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. The main purpose of this brief is to design a filter to guarantee that the augmented Markovian jump fuzzy neural networks are stable in mean-square sense and satisfy a prescribed passivity performance index by employing the Lyapunov method and the stochastic analysis technique. Applying the matrix decomposition techniques, sufficient conditions are provided for the solvability of the problems, which can be formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.
Stochastic MPC with applications to process control
Jurado, I.; Millán, P.; Quevedo, D.; Rubio, F. R.
2015-04-01
This paper presents a model predictive control formulation for Networked Control Systems subject to independent and identically distributed delays and packet dropouts. The design takes into account the presence of a communication network in the control loop, resorting to a buffer at the actuator side to store and consistently apply delayed control sequences when fresh control inputs are not available. The proposed approach uses a statistical description of transmissions to optimise the expected future control performance conditioned upon the current system state, previously calculated control packets and transmission acknowledgements. Experimental studies using a quadruple tank process illustrate the applicability of the method to process control.
Deterministic geologic processes and stochastic modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.; Flint, A.L.
1991-01-01
Recent outcrop sampling at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has produced significant new information regarding the distribution of physical properties at the site of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. Consideration of the spatial distribution of measured values and geostatistical measures of spatial variability indicates that there are a number of widespread deterministic geologic features at the site that have important implications for numerical modeling of such performance aspects as ground water flow and radionuclide transport. These deterministic features have their origin in the complex, yet logical, interplay of a number of deterministic geologic processes, including magmatic evolution; volcanic eruption, transport, and emplacement; post-emplacement cooling and alteration; and late-stage (diagenetic) alteration. Because of geologic processes responsible for formation of Yucca Mountain are relatively well understood and operate on a more-or-less regional scale, understanding of these processes can be used in modeling the physical properties and performance of the site. Information reflecting these deterministic geologic processes may be incorporated into the modeling program explicitly, using geostatistical concepts such as soft information, or implicitly, through the adoption of a particular approach to modeling. It is unlikely that any single representation of physical properties at the site will be suitable for all modeling purposes. Instead, the same underlying physical reality will need to be described many times, each in a manner conducive to assessing specific performance issues
Unrelated Machine Scheduling with Stochastic Processing Times
Skutella, Martin; Sviridenko, Maxim; Uetz, Marc Jochen
Two important characteristics encountered in many real-world scheduling problems are heterogeneous processors and a certain degree of uncertainty about the processing times of jobs. In this paper we address both, and study for the first time a scheduling problem that combines the classical unrelated
Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radu Lupu
2006-05-01
Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.
Stochasticity in processes fundamentals and applications to chemistry and biology
Schuster, Peter
2016-01-01
This book has developed over the past fifteen years from a modern course on stochastic chemical kinetics for graduate students in physics, chemistry and biology. The first part presents a systematic collection of the mathematical background material needed to understand probability, statistics, and stochastic processes as a prerequisite for the increasingly challenging practical applications in chemistry and the life sciences examined in the second part. Recent advances in the development of new techniques and in the resolution of conventional experiments at nano-scales have been tremendous: today molecular spectroscopy can provide insights into processes down to scales at which current theories at the interface of physics, chemistry and the life sciences cannot be successful without a firm grasp of randomness and its sources. Routinely measured data is now sufficiently accurate to allow the direct recording of fluctuations. As a result, the sampling of data and the modeling of relevant processes are doomed t...
Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radu Lupu
2006-03-01
Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.
Elliott, Thomas J.; Gu, Mile
2018-03-01
Continuous-time stochastic processes pervade everyday experience, and the simulation of models of these processes is of great utility. Classical models of systems operating in continuous-time must typically track an unbounded amount of information about past behaviour, even for relatively simple models, enforcing limits on precision due to the finite memory of the machine. However, quantum machines can require less information about the past than even their optimal classical counterparts to simulate the future of discrete-time processes, and we demonstrate that this advantage extends to the continuous-time regime. Moreover, we show that this reduction in the memory requirement can be unboundedly large, allowing for arbitrary precision even with a finite quantum memory. We provide a systematic method for finding superior quantum constructions, and a protocol for analogue simulation of continuous-time renewal processes with a quantum machine.
Stochastic Models in the Identification Process
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Slovák, Dalibor; Zvárová, Jana
2011-01-01
Roč. 7, č. 1 (2011), s. 44-50 ISSN 1801-5603 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : identification process * weight-of evidence formula * coancestry coefficient * beta- binomial sampling formula * DNA mixtures Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science http://www.ejbi.eu/images/2011-1/Slovak_en.pdf
5th Seminar on Stochastic Processes, Random Fields and Applications
Russo, Francesco; Dozzi, Marco
2008-01-01
This volume contains twenty-eight refereed research or review papers presented at the 5th Seminar on Stochastic Processes, Random Fields and Applications, which took place at the Centro Stefano Franscini (Monte Verità) in Ascona, Switzerland, from May 30 to June 3, 2005. The seminar focused mainly on stochastic partial differential equations, random dynamical systems, infinite-dimensional analysis, approximation problems, and financial engineering. The book will be a valuable resource for researchers in stochastic analysis and professionals interested in stochastic methods in finance. Contributors: Y. Asai, J.-P. Aubin, C. Becker, M. Benaïm, H. Bessaih, S. Biagini, S. Bonaccorsi, N. Bouleau, N. Champagnat, G. Da Prato, R. Ferrière, F. Flandoli, P. Guasoni, V.B. Hallulli, D. Khoshnevisan, T. Komorowski, R. Léandre, P. Lescot, H. Lisei, J.A. López-Mimbela, V. Mandrekar, S. Méléard, A. Millet, H. Nagai, A.D. Neate, V. Orlovius, M. Pratelli, N. Privault, O. Raimond, M. Röckner, B. Rüdiger, W.J. Runggaldi...
Stochastic processes dominate during boreal bryophyte community assembly.
Fenton, Nicole J; Bergeron, Yves
2013-09-01
Why are plant species found in certain locations and not in others? The study of community assembly rules has attempted to answer this question, and many studies articulate the historic dichotomy of deterministic (predictable niches) vs. stochastic (random or semi-random processes). The study of successional sequences to determine whether they converge, as would be expected by deterministic theory, or diverge, as stochastic theory would suggest, has been one method used to investigate this question. In this article we ask the question: Do similar boreal bryophyte communities develop in the similar habitat created by convergent succession after fires of different severities? Or do the stochastic processes generated by fires of different severity lead to different communities? Specifically we predict that deterministic structure will be more important for large forest-floor species than stochastic processes, and that the inverse will be true for small bryophyte species. We used multivariate regression trees and model selection to determine the relative weight of structure (forest structure, substrates, soil structure) and processes (fire severity) for two groups of bryophyte species sampled in 12 sites (seven high-severity and five low-severity fires). Contrary to our first hypothesis, processes were as important for large forest-floor bryophytes as for small pocket species. Fire severity, its interaction with the quality of available habitat, and its impact on the creation of biological legacies played dominant roles in determining community structure. In this study, sites with nearly identical forest structure, generated via convergent succession after high- and low-severity fire, were compared to see whether these sites supported similar bryophyte communities. While similar to some degree, both the large forest-floor species and the pocket species differed after high-severity fire compared to low-severity fire. This result suggests that the "how," or process of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Hongjie; Yue Dong
2010-01-01
The paper investigates the synchronization stability problem for a class of complex dynamical networks with Markovian jumping parameters and mixed time delays. The complex networks consist of m modes and the networks switch from one mode to another according to a Markovian chain with known transition probability. The mixed time delays are composed of discrete and distributed delays, the discrete time delay is assumed to be random and its probability distribution is known a priori. In terms of the probability distribution of the delays, the new type of system model with probability-distribution-dependent parameter matrices is proposed. Based on the stochastic analysis techniques and the properties of the Kronecker product, delay-dependent synchronization stability criteria in the mean square are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities which can be readily solved by using the LMI toolbox in MATLAB, the solvability of derived conditions depends on not only the size of the delay, but also the probability of the delay-taking values in some intervals. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
Fundamental aspects of brittle damage processes -- discrete systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krajcinovic, D.; Lubarda, V.
1993-01-01
The analysis of cooperative brittle processes are performed on simple discrete models admitting closed form solutions. A connection between the damage and fracture mechanics is derived and utilized to illustrate the relation between two theories. The performed analyses suggest that the stress concentrations (direct interaction between defects) represent a second order effect during the hardening part of the response in the case of disordered solids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nafidi, A.; Gutiérrez, R.; Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R.; Ramos-Ábalos, E.; El Hachimi, S.
2016-01-01
The aim of this study is to model electric power consumption during a period of economic crisis, characterised by declining gross domestic product. A novel aspect of this study is its use of a Gamma-type diffusion process for short and medium-term forecasting – other techniques that have been used to describe such consumption patterns are not valid in this situation. In this study, we consider a new extension of the stochastic Gamma diffusion process by introducing time functions (exogenous factors) that affect its trend. This extension is defined in terms of Kolmogorov backward and forward equations. After obtaining the transition probability density function and the moments (specifically, the trend function), the inference on the process parameters is obtained by discrete sampling of the sample paths. Finally, this stochastic process is applied to model total net electricity consumption in Spain, when affected by the following set of exogenous factors: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Final Domestic Consumption (FDC). - Highlights: • The aim is modelling and predicting electricity consumption in Spain. • We propose a Gamma-type diffusion process for short and medium-term forecasting. • We compared the fit using diffusion processes with different exogenous factors.
Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dobay, M. P. D., E-mail: maria.pamela.david@physik.uni-muenchen.de; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Raedler, J. O., E-mail: joachim.raedler@physik.uni-muenchen.de [Ludwig-Maximilians University, Faculty of Physics, Center for NanoScience (Germany)
2012-03-15
Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.
Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.
2012-01-01
Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.
Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras
Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.
2012-03-01
Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.
Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B
2016-04-01
We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Persistence of non-Markovian Gaussian stationary processes in discrete time
Nyberg, Markus; Lizana, Ludvig
2018-04-01
The persistence of a stochastic variable is the probability that it does not cross a given level during a fixed time interval. Although persistence is a simple concept to understand, it is in general hard to calculate. Here we consider zero mean Gaussian stationary processes in discrete time n . Few results are known for the persistence P0(n ) in discrete time, except the large time behavior which is characterized by the nontrivial constant θ through P0(n ) ˜θn . Using a modified version of the independent interval approximation (IIA) that we developed before, we are able to calculate P0(n ) analytically in z -transform space in terms of the autocorrelation function A (n ) . If A (n )→0 as n →∞ , we extract θ numerically, while if A (n )=0 , for finite n >N , we find θ exactly (within the IIA). We apply our results to three special cases: the nearest-neighbor-correlated "first order moving average process", where A (n )=0 for n >1 , the double exponential-correlated "second order autoregressive process", where A (n ) =c1λ1n+c2λ2n , and power-law-correlated variables, where A (n ) ˜n-μ . Apart from the power-law case when μ <5 , we find excellent agreement with simulations.
Barbhuiya, F A; Agarwal, Mayank; Purwar, Sanketh; Biswas, Santosh; Nandi, Sukumar
2015-09-01
TCP is the most widely accepted transport layer protocol. The major emphasis during the development of TCP was its functionality and efficiency. However, not much consideration was given on studying the possibility of attackers exploiting the protocol, which has lead to several attacks on TCP. This paper deals with the induced low rate TCP attack. Since the attack is relatively new, only a few schemes have been proposed to mitigate it. However, the main issues with these schemes are scalability, change in TCP header, lack of formal frameworks, etc. In this paper, we have adapted the stochastic DES framework for detecting the attack, which addresses most of these issues. We have successfully deployed and tested the proposed DES based IDS on a test bed. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Chkifa, Abdellah
2015-04-08
Motivated by the numerical treatment of parametric and stochastic PDEs, we analyze the least-squares method for polynomial approximation of multivariate functions based on random sampling according to a given probability measure. Recent work has shown that in the univariate case, the least-squares method is quasi-optimal in expectation in [A. Cohen, M A. Davenport and D. Leviatan. Found. Comput. Math. 13 (2013) 819–834] and in probability in [G. Migliorati, F. Nobile, E. von Schwerin, R. Tempone, Found. Comput. Math. 14 (2014) 419–456], under suitable conditions that relate the number of samples with respect to the dimension of the polynomial space. Here “quasi-optimal” means that the accuracy of the least-squares approximation is comparable with that of the best approximation in the given polynomial space. In this paper, we discuss the quasi-optimality of the polynomial least-squares method in arbitrary dimension. Our analysis applies to any arbitrary multivariate polynomial space (including tensor product, total degree or hyperbolic crosses), under the minimal requirement that its associated index set is downward closed. The optimality criterion only involves the relation between the number of samples and the dimension of the polynomial space, independently of the anisotropic shape and of the number of variables. We extend our results to the approximation of Hilbert space-valued functions in order to apply them to the approximation of parametric and stochastic elliptic PDEs. As a particular case, we discuss “inclusion type” elliptic PDE models, and derive an exponential convergence estimate for the least-squares method. Numerical results confirm our estimate, yet pointing out a gap between the condition necessary to achieve optimality in the theory, and the condition that in practice yields the optimal convergence rate.
Quantitative sociodynamics stochastic methods and models of social interaction processes
Helbing, Dirk
1995-01-01
Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioural changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics but they have very often proved their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces the most important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches a very fundamental dynamic model is obtained which seems to open new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models as special cases, e.g. the log...
Quantitative Sociodynamics Stochastic Methods and Models of Social Interaction Processes
Helbing, Dirk
2010-01-01
This new edition of Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioral changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics and mathematics, but they have very often proven their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences as well. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (e.g. synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches, a fundamental dynamic model is obtained, which opens new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models a...
Informational and Causal Architecture of Discrete-Time Renewal Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarah E. Marzen
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic for their prediction (the set of causal states, calculate the historical memory capacity required to store those states (statistical complexity, delineate what information is predictable (excess entropy, and decompose the entropy of a single measurement into that shared with the past, future, or both. The causal state equivalence relation defines a new subclass of renewal processes with a finite number of causal states despite having an unbounded interevent count distribution. We use the resulting formulae to analyze the output of the parametrized Simple Nonunifilar Source, generated by a simple two-state hidden Markov model, but with an infinite-state ϵ-machine presentation. All in all, the results lay the groundwork for analyzing more complex processes with infinite statistical complexity and infinite excess entropy.
Stochastic transitions between neural states in taste processing and decision-making.
Miller, Paul; Katz, Donald B
2010-02-17
Noise, which is ubiquitous in the nervous system, causes trial-to-trial variability in the neural responses to stimuli. This neural variability is in turn a likely source of behavioral variability. Using Hidden Markov modeling, a method of analysis that can make use of such trial-to-trial response variability, we have uncovered sequences of discrete states of neural activity in gustatory cortex during taste processing. Here, we advance our understanding of these patterns in two ways. First, we reproduce the experimental findings in a formal model, describing a network that evinces sharp transitions between discrete states that are deterministically stable given sufficient noise in the network; as in the empirical data, the transitions occur at variable times across trials, but the stimulus-specific sequence is itself reliable. Second, we demonstrate that such noise-induced transitions between discrete states can be computationally advantageous in a reduced, decision-making network. The reduced network produces binary outputs, which represent classification of ingested substances as palatable or nonpalatable, and the corresponding behavioral responses of "spit" or "swallow". We evaluate the performance of the network by measuring how reliably its outputs follow small biases in the strengths of its inputs. We compare two modes of operation: deterministic integration ("ramping") versus stochastic decision-making ("jumping"), the latter of which relies on state-to-state transitions. We find that the stochastic mode of operation can be optimal under typical levels of internal noise and that, within this mode, addition of random noise to each input can improve optimal performance when decisions must be made in limited time.
Weak Approximation of SDEs by Discrete-Time Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henryk Zähle
2008-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the martingale problem related to the solution of an SDE on the line. It is shown that the solution of this martingale problem can be approximated by solutions of the corresponding time-discrete martingale problems under some conditions. This criterion is especially expedient for establishing the convergence of population processes to SDEs. We also show that the criterion yields a weak Euler scheme approximation of SDEs under fairly weak assumptions on the driving force of the approximating processes.
Multiple-scale stochastic processes: Decimation, averaging and beyond
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bo, Stefano, E-mail: stefano.bo@nordita.org [Nordita, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden); Celani, Antonio [Quantitative Life Sciences, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Strada Costiera 11, I-34151 - Trieste (Italy)
2017-02-07
The recent experimental progresses in handling microscopic systems have allowed to probe them at levels where fluctuations are prominent, calling for stochastic modeling in a large number of physical, chemical and biological phenomena. This has provided fruitful applications for established stochastic methods and motivated further developments. These systems often involve processes taking place on widely separated time scales. For an efficient modeling one usually focuses on the slower degrees of freedom and it is of great importance to accurately eliminate the fast variables in a controlled fashion, carefully accounting for their net effect on the slower dynamics. This procedure in general requires to perform two different operations: decimation and coarse-graining. We introduce the asymptotic methods that form the basis of this procedure and discuss their application to a series of physical, biological and chemical examples. We then turn our attention to functionals of the stochastic trajectories such as residence times, counting statistics, fluxes, entropy production, etc. which have been increasingly studied in recent years. For such functionals, the elimination of the fast degrees of freedom can present additional difficulties and naive procedures can lead to blatantly inconsistent results. Homogenization techniques for functionals are less covered in the literature and we will pedagogically present them here, as natural extensions of the ones employed for the trajectories. We will also discuss recent applications of these techniques to the thermodynamics of small systems and their interpretation in terms of information-theoretic concepts.
Distributed state-space generation of discrete-state stochastic models
Ciardo, Gianfranco; Gluckman, Joshua; Nicol, David
1995-01-01
High-level formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets can be used to model complex systems. Analysis of logical and numerical properties of these models of ten requires the generation and storage of the entire underlying state space. This imposes practical limitations on the types of systems which can be modeled. Because of the vast amount of memory consumed, we investigate distributed algorithms for the generation of state space graphs. The distributed construction allows us to take advantage of the combined memory readily available on a network of workstations. The key technical problem is to find effective methods for on-the-fly partitioning, so that the state space is evenly distributed among processors. In this paper we report on the implementation of a distributed state-space generator that may be linked to a number of existing system modeling tools. We discuss partitioning strategies in the context of Petri net models, and report on performance observed on a network of workstations, as well as on a distributed memory multi-computer.
Population density equations for stochastic processes with memory kernels
Lai, Yi Ming; de Kamps, Marc
2017-06-01
We present a method for solving population density equations (PDEs)-a mean-field technique describing homogeneous populations of uncoupled neurons—where the populations can be subject to non-Markov noise for arbitrary distributions of jump sizes. The method combines recent developments in two different disciplines that traditionally have had limited interaction: computational neuroscience and the theory of random networks. The method uses a geometric binning scheme, based on the method of characteristics, to capture the deterministic neurodynamics of the population, separating the deterministic and stochastic process cleanly. We can independently vary the choice of the deterministic model and the model for the stochastic process, leading to a highly modular numerical solution strategy. We demonstrate this by replacing the master equation implicit in many formulations of the PDE formalism by a generalization called the generalized Montroll-Weiss equation—a recent result from random network theory—describing a random walker subject to transitions realized by a non-Markovian process. We demonstrate the method for leaky- and quadratic-integrate and fire neurons subject to spike trains with Poisson and gamma-distributed interspike intervals. We are able to model jump responses for both models accurately to both excitatory and inhibitory input under the assumption that all inputs are generated by one renewal process.
Population density equations for stochastic processes with memory kernels.
Lai, Yi Ming; de Kamps, Marc
2017-06-01
We present a method for solving population density equations (PDEs)--a mean-field technique describing homogeneous populations of uncoupled neurons-where the populations can be subject to non-Markov noise for arbitrary distributions of jump sizes. The method combines recent developments in two different disciplines that traditionally have had limited interaction: computational neuroscience and the theory of random networks. The method uses a geometric binning scheme, based on the method of characteristics, to capture the deterministic neurodynamics of the population, separating the deterministic and stochastic process cleanly. We can independently vary the choice of the deterministic model and the model for the stochastic process, leading to a highly modular numerical solution strategy. We demonstrate this by replacing the master equation implicit in many formulations of the PDE formalism by a generalization called the generalized Montroll-Weiss equation-a recent result from random network theory-describing a random walker subject to transitions realized by a non-Markovian process. We demonstrate the method for leaky- and quadratic-integrate and fire neurons subject to spike trains with Poisson and gamma-distributed interspike intervals. We are able to model jump responses for both models accurately to both excitatory and inhibitory input under the assumption that all inputs are generated by one renewal process.
Conditional Stochastic Processes Applied to Wave Load Predictions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
2015-01-01
with an application where measured wave responses are used to predict the future variation in the responses within the next 5-30 seconds. The main part of the article is devoted to the application of the First Order Reliability Method for derivation of critical wave episodes for different nonlinear wave......The concept of conditional stochastic processes provides a powerful tool for evaluation and estimation of wave loads on ships and offshore structures. This article first considers conditional waves with a focus on critical wave episodes. Then the inherent uncertainty in the results is illustrated...
Counting statistics of non-markovian quantum stochastic processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Flindt, Christian; Novotny, T.; Braggio, A.
2008-01-01
We derive a general expression for the cumulant generating function (CGF) of non-Markovian quantum stochastic transport processes. The long-time limit of the CGF is determined by a single dominating pole of the resolvent of the memory kernel from which we extract the zero-frequency cumulants...... of the current using a recursive scheme. The finite-frequency noise is expressed not only in terms of the resolvent, but also initial system-environment correlations. As an illustrative example we consider electron transport through a dissipative double quantum dot for which we study the effects of dissipation...
Shen, Bo; Wang, Zidong; Liu, Xiaohui
2011-01-01
In this paper, new synchronization and state estimation problems are considered for an array of coupled discrete time-varying stochastic complex networks over a finite horizon. A novel concept of bounded H(∞) synchronization is proposed to handle the time-varying nature of the complex networks. Such a concept captures the transient behavior of the time-varying complex network over a finite horizon, where the degree of bounded synchronization is quantified in terms of the H(∞)-norm. A general sector-like nonlinear function is employed to describe the nonlinearities existing in the network. By utilizing a time-varying real-valued function and the Kronecker product, criteria are established that ensure the bounded H(∞) synchronization in terms of a set of recursive linear matrix inequalities (RLMIs), where the RLMIs can be computed recursively by employing available MATLAB toolboxes. The bounded H(∞) state estimation problem is then studied for the same complex network, where the purpose is to design a state estimator to estimate the network states through available output measurements such that, over a finite horizon, the dynamics of the estimation error is guaranteed to be bounded with a given disturbance attenuation level. Again, an RLMI approach is developed for the state estimation problem. Finally, two simulation examples are exploited to show the effectiveness of the results derived in this paper.
An extension of clarke's model with stochastic amplitude flip processes
Hoel, Hakon
2014-07-01
Stochastic modeling is an essential tool for studying statistical properties of wireless channels. In multipath fading channel (MFC) models, the signal reception is modeled by a sum of wave path contributions, and Clarke\\'s model is an important example of such which has been widely accepted in many wireless applications. However, since Clarke\\'s model is temporally deterministic, Feng and Field noted that it does not model real wireless channels with time-varying randomness well. Here, we extend Clarke\\'s model to a novel time-varying stochastic MFC model with scatterers randomly flipping on and off. Statistical properties of the MFC model are analyzed and shown to fit well with real signal measurements, and a limit Gaussian process is derived from the model when the number of active wave paths tends to infinity. A second focus of this work is a comparison study of the error and computational cost of generating signal realizations from the MFC model and from its limit Gaussian process. By rigorous analysis and numerical studies, we show that in many settings, signal realizations are generated more efficiently by Gaussian process algorithms than by the MFC model\\'s algorithm. Numerical examples that strengthen these observations are also presented. © 2014 IEEE.
Sequential stochastic optimization
Cairoli, Renzo
1996-01-01
Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-paramet
Process algebra with timing: Real time and discrete time
Baeten, J.C.M.; Middelburg, C.A.
1999-01-01
We present real time and discrete time versions of ACP with absolute timing and relative timing. The startingpoint is a new real time version with absolute timing, called ACPsat , featuring urgent actions and a delay operator. The discrete time versions are conservative extensions of the discrete
A spatiotemporal stochastic process model for species spread.
Fewster, R M
2003-09-01
We use a spatiotemporal Markov process to model the spread of an ecological population through its environment over time. Available habitat is divided into sites, and a parametric function of spatial variables is used to model the probability that one site is colonized from another. This allows us both to make predictions about the future spread of a population, and to determine which are the important factors governing colonizations. The model evolves in discrete time, allowing the population distribution to change seasonally in accordance with breeding patterns. Discrete time formulations are natural for ecological populations, but are problematic due to difficulties of fitting and predicting over irregular time intervals. The model described here can accommodate years of missing data and can therefore fit and predict at irregular intervals. Two methods of approximating the likelihood are described and applied to ornithological survey data for the woodlark, Lullula arborea, from Thetford Forest in the U.K.
Neural network connectivity and response latency modelled by stochastic processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tamborrino, Massimiliano
is connected to thousands of other neurons. The rst question is: how to model neural networks through stochastic processes? A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, obtained as a diffusion approximation of a jump process, is the proposed answer. Obviously, dependencies between neurons imply dependencies...... between their spike times. Therefore, the second question is: how to detect neural network connectivity from simultaneously recorded spike trains? Answering this question corresponds to investigate the joint distribution of sequences of rst passage times. A non-parametric method based on copulas...... generation of pikes. When a stimulus is applied to the network, the spontaneous rings may prevail and hamper detection of the effects of the stimulus. Therefore, the spontaneous rings cannot be ignored and the response latency has to be detected on top of a background signal. Everything becomes more dicult...
On the Fractional Poisson Process and the Discretized Stable Subordinator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rudolf Gorenflo
2015-08-01
Full Text Available We consider the renewal counting number process N = N(t as a forward march over the non-negative integers with independent identically distributed waiting times. We embed the values of the counting numbers N in a “pseudo-spatial” non-negative half-line x ≥ 0 and observe that for physical time likewise we have t ≥ 0. Thus we apply the Laplace transform with respect to both variables x and t. Applying then a modification of the Montroll-Weiss-Cox formalism of continuous time random walk we obtain the essential characteristics of a renewal process in the transform domain and, if we are lucky, also in the physical domain. The process t = t(N of accumulation of waiting times is inverse to the counting number process, in honour of the Danish mathematician and telecommunication engineer A.K. Erlang we call it the Erlang process. It yields the probability of exactly n renewal events in the interval (0; t]. We apply our Laplace-Laplace formalism to the fractional Poisson process whose waiting times are of Mittag-Leffler type and to a renewal process whose waiting times are of Wright type. The process of Mittag-Leffler type includes as a limiting case the classical Poisson process, the process of Wright type represents the discretized stable subordinator and a re-scaled version of it was used in our method of parametric subordination of time-space fractional diffusion processes. Properly rescaling the counting number process N(t and the Erlang process t(N yields as diffusion limits the inverse stable and the stable subordinator, respectively.
D'Onofrio, Giuseppe; Pirozzi, Enrica
2017-05-01
We consider a stochastic differential equation in a strip, with coefficients suitably chosen to describe the acto-myosin interaction subject to time-varying forces. By simulating trajectories of the stochastic dynamics via an Euler discretization-based algorithm, we fit experimental data and determine the values of involved parameters. The steps of the myosin are represented by the exit events from the strip. Motivated by these results, we propose a specific stochastic model based on the corresponding time-inhomogeneous Gauss-Markov and diffusion process evolving between two absorbing boundaries. We specify the mean and covariance functions of the stochastic modeling process taking into account time-dependent forces including the effect of an external load. We accurately determine the probability density function (pdf) of the first exit time (FET) from the strip by solving a system of two non singular second-type Volterra integral equations via a numerical quadrature. We provide numerical estimations of the mean of FET as approximations of the dwell-time of the proteins dynamics. The percentage of backward steps is given in agreement to experimental data. Numerical and simulation results are compared and discussed.
Stem Cell Differentiation as a Non-Markov Stochastic Process.
Stumpf, Patrick S; Smith, Rosanna C G; Lenz, Michael; Schuppert, Andreas; Müller, Franz-Josef; Babtie, Ann; Chan, Thalia E; Stumpf, Michael P H; Please, Colin P; Howison, Sam D; Arai, Fumio; MacArthur, Ben D
2017-09-27
Pluripotent stem cells can self-renew in culture and differentiate along all somatic lineages in vivo. While much is known about the molecular basis of pluripotency, the mechanisms of differentiation remain unclear. Here, we profile individual mouse embryonic stem cells as they progress along the neuronal lineage. We observe that cells pass from the pluripotent state to the neuronal state via an intermediate epiblast-like state. However, analysis of the rate at which cells enter and exit these observed cell states using a hidden Markov model indicates the presence of a chain of unobserved molecular states that each cell transits through stochastically in sequence. This chain of hidden states allows individual cells to record their position on the differentiation trajectory, thereby encoding a simple form of cellular memory. We suggest a statistical mechanics interpretation of these results that distinguishes between functionally distinct cellular "macrostates" and functionally similar molecular "microstates" and propose a model of stem cell differentiation as a non-Markov stochastic process. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Time-variant reliability assessment through equivalent stochastic process transformation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Zequn; Chen, Wei
2016-01-01
Time-variant reliability measures the probability that an engineering system successfully performs intended functions over a certain period of time under various sources of uncertainty. In practice, it is computationally prohibitive to propagate uncertainty in time-variant reliability assessment based on expensive or complex numerical models. This paper presents an equivalent stochastic process transformation approach for cost-effective prediction of reliability deterioration over the life cycle of an engineering system. To reduce the high dimensionality, a time-independent reliability model is developed by translating random processes and time parameters into random parameters in order to equivalently cover all potential failures that may occur during the time interval of interest. With the time-independent reliability model, an instantaneous failure surface is attained by using a Kriging-based surrogate model to identify all potential failure events. To enhance the efficacy of failure surface identification, a maximum confidence enhancement method is utilized to update the Kriging model sequentially. Then, the time-variant reliability is approximated using Monte Carlo simulations of the Kriging model where system failures over a time interval are predicted by the instantaneous failure surface. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to accurately predict the time evolution of system reliability while requiring much less computational efforts compared with the existing analytical approach. - Highlights: • Developed a new approach for time-variant reliability analysis. • Proposed a novel stochastic process transformation procedure to reduce the dimensionality. • Employed Kriging models with confidence-based adaptive sampling scheme to enhance computational efficiency. • The approach is effective for handling random process in time-variant reliability analysis. • Two case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy
Analyzing a stochastic process driven by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise
Lehle, B.; Peinke, J.
2018-01-01
A scalar Langevin-type process X (t ) that is driven by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise η (t ) is non-Markovian. However, the joint dynamics of X and η is described by a Markov process in two dimensions. But even though there exists a variety of techniques for the analysis of Markov processes, it is still a challenge to estimate the process parameters solely based on a given time series of X . Such a partially observed 2D process could, e.g., be analyzed in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Alternatively, an embedding strategy can be applied, where first the joint dynamics of X and its temporal derivative X ˙ is analyzed. Subsequently, the results can be used to determine the process parameters of X and η . In this paper, we propose a more direct approach that is purely based on the moments of the increments of X , which can be estimated for different time-increments τ from a given time series. From a stochastic Taylor expansion of X , analytic expressions for these moments can be derived, which can be used to estimate the process parameters by a regression strategy.
Energy thresholds of discrete breathers in thermal equilibrium and relaxation processes.
Ming, Yi; Ling, Dong-Bo; Li, Hui-Min; Ding, Ze-Jun
2017-06-01
So far, only the energy thresholds of single discrete breathers in nonlinear Hamiltonian systems have been analytically obtained. In this work, the energy thresholds of discrete breathers in thermal equilibrium and the energy thresholds of long-lived discrete breathers which can remain after a long time relaxation are analytically estimated for nonlinear chains. These energy thresholds are size dependent. The energy thresholds of discrete breathers in thermal equilibrium are the same as the previous analytical results for single discrete breathers. The energy thresholds of long-lived discrete breathers in relaxation processes are different from the previous results for single discrete breathers but agree well with the published numerical results known to us. Because real systems are either in thermal equilibrium or in relaxation processes, the obtained results could be important for experimental detection of discrete breathers.
Interacting Stochastic Processes: From Viciousness to Caging to Force Chains
Xu, Shiliyang
This thesis documents a quest to develop and study several novel interacting stochastic processes. As for the first example, we generalize a system of vicious random walkers in which the only interaction between any two random walkers is that when they intersect, both walkers are annihilated. We define a system of N vicious accelerating walkers with each walker undergoing random acceleration and compute the survival probability distribution for this system. We also define and study a system of N vicious Levy flights in which any two Levy flights crossing one another annihilate each other. The average mean-squared displacement of a Levy flight is not proportional to time, but scales with what is known as the Levy index divided by two. In both cases, vicious accelerating walkers and vicious Levy flights, we are motivated by ultimately generalizing our understanding of Gaussian random matrices via non-Markovian and non-Gaussian extensions respectively. Moreover, inspired by recent experiments on periodically sheared colloids at low densities, we define and investigate several new contact processes, or interacting stochastic processes, with conserved particle number and three-or-more-body interactions. We do so to characterize the periodically sheared colloidal system at higher densities. We find two new dynamical phase transitions between an active phase, where some fraction of the colloids are always being displaced from their position at the beginning and end of each shear cycle, and an inactive phase in which all colloids return to their initial positions at the end of each shear cycle. One of the transitions is discontinuous, while the second, which is due to a caging, or crowding, effect at high densities, appears to be continuous and in a new universality from what is known as conserved directed percolation. The latter transition may have implications for the onset of glassiness in dense, particulate systems. In addition, this thesis also includes analysis of
Stochastic processes and their spectral representations over non-archimedean fields
Ludkovsky, S. V.
2008-01-01
The article is devoted to stochastic processes with values in finite- and infinite-dimensional vector spaces over infinite fields $\\bf K$ of zero characteristics with non-trivial non-archimedean norms. For different types of stochastic processes controlled by measures with values in $\\bf K$ and in complete topological vector spaces over $\\bf K$ stochastic integrals are investigated. Vector valued measures and integrals in spaces over $\\bf K$ are studied. Theorems about spectral decompositions...
Lognormal-like statistics of a stochastic squeeze process
Shapira, Dekel; Cohen, Doron
2017-10-01
We analyze the full statistics of a stochastic squeeze process. The model's two parameters are the bare stretching rate w and the angular diffusion coefficient D . We carry out an exact analysis to determine the drift and the diffusion coefficient of log(r ) , where r is the radial coordinate. The results go beyond the heuristic lognormal description that is implied by the central limit theorem. Contrary to the common "quantum Zeno" approximation, the radial diffusion is not simply Dr=(1 /8 ) w2/D but has a nonmonotonic dependence on w /D . Furthermore, the calculation of the radial moments is dominated by the far non-Gaussian tails of the log(r ) distribution.
Stochastic calculus for fractional Brownian motion and related processes
Mishura, Yuliya S
2008-01-01
The theory of fractional Brownian motion and other long-memory processes are addressed in this volume. Interesting topics for PhD students and specialists in probability theory, stochastic analysis and financial mathematics demonstrate the modern level of this field. Among these are results about Levy characterization of fractional Brownian motion, maximal moment inequalities for Wiener integrals including the values 0
A measure theoretical approach to quantum stochastic processes
Von Waldenfels, Wilhelm
2014-01-01
This monograph takes as starting point that abstract quantum stochastic processes can be understood as a quantum field theory in one space and in one time coordinate. As a result it is appropriate to represent operators as power series of creation and annihilation operators in normal-ordered form, which can be achieved using classical measure theory. Considering in detail four basic examples (e.g. a two-level atom coupled to a heat bath of oscillators), in each case the Hamiltonian of the associated one-parameter strongly continuous group is determined and the spectral decomposition is explicitly calculated in the form of generalized eigen-vectors. Advanced topics include the theory of the Hudson-Parthasarathy equation and the amplified oscillator problem. To that end, a chapter on white noise calculus has also been included.
Model of the discrete destruction process of a solid body
Glagolev, V. V.; Markin, A. A.
2018-03-01
Destruction is considered as a discrete thermomechanical process, in which the deformation of a solid body is achieved by changing the boundary stresses acting on the part of the volume being destroyed with the external load unchanged. On the basis of the proposed concept, a model for adhesive stratification of a composite material is constructed. When adhesive stratification is used, the stress state of one or two boundaries of the adhesive layer changes to zero if the bonds with the joined body are broken. As a result of the stratification, the interaction between the part of the composite, which may include an adhesive layer and the rest of the body stops. When solving the elastoplastic problem of cohesive stratification, the region in which the destruction criterion is achieved is identified. With the help of a repeated solution of the problem of subcritical deformation with the known law of motion of the boundary of the region, the distribution of the load (nodal forces) acting from the region to the body is located. The next step considers the change in the stress–strain state of the body in the process of destruction of the selected area. The elastoplastic problem is solved with a simple unloading of the formed surface of the body and preservation of the external load corresponding to the beginning of the process of destruction.
Stochastic process corrosion growth models for pipeline reliability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bazán, Felipe Alexander Vargas; Beck, André Teófilo
2013-01-01
Highlights: •Novel non-linear stochastic process corrosion growth model is proposed. •Corrosion rate modeled as random Poisson pulses. •Time to corrosion initiation and inherent time-variability properly represented. •Continuous corrosion growth histories obtained. •Model is shown to precisely fit actual corrosion data at two time points. -- Abstract: Linear random variable corrosion models are extensively employed in reliability analysis of pipelines. However, linear models grossly neglect well-known characteristics of the corrosion process. Herein, a non-linear model is proposed, where corrosion rate is represented as a Poisson square wave process. The resulting model represents inherent time-variability of corrosion growth, produces continuous growth and leads to mean growth at less-than-one power of time. Different corrosion models are adjusted to the same set of actual corrosion data for two inspections. The proposed non-linear random process corrosion growth model leads to the best fit to the data, while better representing problem physics
Stochastic evolution of the Universe: A possible dynamical process ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
C Sivakumar
2017-12-11
Dec 11, 2017 ... Abstract. In this paper, we propose a stochastic evolution of the early Universe which can lead to a fractal correlation in galactic distribution in the Universe. The stochastic equation of state, due to fluctuating creation rates of various components in a many-component fluid, leads to a fluctuating expansion ...
Stochastic evolution of the Universe: A possible dynamical process ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In this paper, we propose a stochastic evolution of the early Universe which can lead to a fractal correlation in galactic distribution in the Universe. The stochastic equation of state, due to fluctuating creation rates of various components in a many-component fluid, leads to a fluctuating expansion rate for the Universe in the ...
On the modelling of nested risk-neutral stochastic processes with applications in insurance
S.N. Singor (Stefan); A. Boer; J.S.C. Alberts; C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)
2017-01-01
textabstractWe propose a modelling framework for risk-neutral stochastic processes nested in a real-world stochastic process. The framework is important for insurers that deal with the valuation of embedded options and in particular at future points in time. We make use of the class of State Space
Economic-Oriented Stochastic Optimization in Advanced Process Control of Chemical Processes
Dobos, László; Király, András; Abonyi, János
2012-01-01
Finding the optimal operating region of chemical processes is an inevitable step toward improving economic performance. Usually the optimal operating region is situated close to process constraints related to product quality or process safety requirements. Higher profit can be realized only by assuring a relatively low frequency of violation of these constraints. A multilevel stochastic optimization framework is proposed to determine the optimal setpoint values of control loops with respect t...
Fish Processed Production Planning Using Integer Stochastic Programming Model
Firmansyah, Mawengkang, Herman
2011-06-01
Fish and its processed products are the most affordable source of animal protein in the diet of most people in Indonesia. The goal in production planning is to meet customer demand over a fixed time horizon divided into planning periods by optimizing the trade-off between economic objectives such as production cost and customer satisfaction level. The major decisions are production and inventory levels for each product and the number of workforce in each planning period. In this paper we consider the management of small scale traditional business at North Sumatera Province which performs processing fish into several local seafood products. The inherent uncertainty of data (e.g. demand, fish availability), together with the sequential evolution of data over time leads the production planning problem to a nonlinear mixed-integer stochastic programming model. We use scenario generation based approach and feasible neighborhood search for solving the model. The results which show the amount of each fish processed product and the number of workforce needed in each horizon planning are presented.
Discretized screening to apply EOR process in Western field, Venezuela
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gonzalez, E.; Rodriguez, T.; Gonzalez, O. [PDVSA Petroleos de Venezuela SA, Caracas (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of). INTEVEP; Lara, V. [PDVSA Petroleos de Venezuela SA, Caracas (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of). CVP
2009-07-01
Increases in oil recovery factors through enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies has become an important issue in the petroleum industry because of depleting reserves of conventional fossil fuels and the low low mobility of extra heavy oils. Methodologies with different approaches have been developed to define the most suitable technology in specific reservoirs. The purpose of this paper was to determine which EOR technologies were the most appropriate for the entire Urdaneta reservoir in Venezuela, and to determine where the technologies could be applied in terms of reservoir volume. Specifically, the paper described the discretized screening methodology and showed an example of its application in the Urdaneta field. The processing of the static model of this field was described, since this is an input requirement for the EOR screening methodology. Screening results were also analysed and shown as color codes maps. The EOR screening methodology demonstrates that it is possible to evaluate the reservoir using very detailed input information. 4 refs., 3 tabs., 10 figs.
Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md
2014-01-01
In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits
Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)
2014-06-19
In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.
Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.
This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...
Weiss, Charles J.
2017-01-01
An introduction to digital stochastic simulations for modeling a variety of physical and chemical processes is presented. Despite the importance of stochastic simulations in chemistry, the prevalence of turn-key software solutions can impose a layer of abstraction between the user and the underlying approach obscuring the methodology being…
White noise based stochastic calculus associated with a class of Gaussian processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Alpay
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Using the white noise space setting, we define and study stochastic integrals with respect to a class of stationary increment Gaussian processes. We focus mainly on continuous functions with values in the Kondratiev space of stochastic distributions, where use is made of the topology of nuclear spaces. We also prove an associated Ito formula.
Kozachenko, Yuriy; Troshki, Viktor
2015-01-01
We consider a measurable stationary Gaussian stochastic process. A criterion for testing hypotheses about the covariance function of such a process using estimates for its norm in the space $L_p(\\mathbb {T}),\\,p\\geq1$, is constructed.
Simulating biological processes: stochastic physics from whole cells to colonies
Earnest, Tyler M.; Cole, John A.; Luthey-Schulten, Zaida
2018-05-01
The last few decades have revealed the living cell to be a crowded spatially heterogeneous space teeming with biomolecules whose concentrations and activities are governed by intrinsically random forces. It is from this randomness, however, that a vast array of precisely timed and intricately coordinated biological functions emerge that give rise to the complex forms and behaviors we see in the biosphere around us. This seemingly paradoxical nature of life has drawn the interest of an increasing number of physicists, and recent years have seen stochastic modeling grow into a major subdiscipline within biological physics. Here we review some of the major advances that have shaped our understanding of stochasticity in biology. We begin with some historical context, outlining a string of important experimental results that motivated the development of stochastic modeling. We then embark upon a fairly rigorous treatment of the simulation methods that are currently available for the treatment of stochastic biological models, with an eye toward comparing and contrasting their realms of applicability, and the care that must be taken when parameterizing them. Following that, we describe how stochasticity impacts several key biological functions, including transcription, translation, ribosome biogenesis, chromosome replication, and metabolism, before considering how the functions may be coupled into a comprehensive model of a ‘minimal cell’. Finally, we close with our expectation for the future of the field, focusing on how mesoscopic stochastic methods may be augmented with atomic-scale molecular modeling approaches in order to understand life across a range of length and time scales.
Stochastic process for white matter injury detection in preterm neonates
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irene Cheng
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Preterm births are rising in Canada and worldwide. As clinicians strive to identify preterm neonates at greatest risk of significant developmental or motor problems, accurate predictive tools are required. Infants at highest risk will be able to receive early developmental interventions, and will also enable clinicians to implement and evaluate new methods to improve outcomes. While severe white matter injury (WMI is associated with adverse developmental outcome, more subtle injuries are difficult to identify and the association with later impairments remains unknown. Thus, our goal was to develop an automated method for detection and visualization of brain abnormalities in MR images acquired in very preterm born neonates. We have developed a technique to detect WMI in T1-weighted images acquired in 177 very preterm born infants (24–32 weeks gestation. Our approach uses a stochastic process that estimates the likelihood of intensity variations in nearby pixels; with small variations being more likely than large variations. We first detect the boundaries between normal and injured regions of the white matter. Following this we use a measure of pixel similarity to identify WMI regions. Our algorithm is able to detect WMI in all of the images in the ground truth dataset with some false positives in situations where the white matter region is not segmented accurately.
Sedwards, Sean; Mazza, Tommaso
2007-10-15
Compartments and membranes are the basis of cell topology and more than 30% of the human genome codes for membrane proteins. While it is possible to represent compartments and membrane proteins in a nominal way with many mathematical formalisms used in systems biology, few, if any, explicitly model the topology of the membranes themselves. Discrete stochastic simulation potentially offers the most accurate representation of cell dynamics. Since the details of every molecular interaction in a pathway are often not known, the relationship between chemical species in not necessarily best described at the lowest level, i.e. by mass action. Simulation is a form of computer-aided analysis, relying on human interpretation to derive meaning. To improve efficiency and gain meaning in an automatic way, it is necessary to have a formalism based on a model which has decidable properties. We present Cyto-Sim, a stochastic simulator of membrane-enclosed hierarchies of biochemical processes, where the membranes comprise an inner, outer and integral layer. The underlying model is based on formal language theory and has been shown to have decidable properties (Cavaliere and Sedwards, 2006), allowing formal analysis in addition to simulation. The simulator provides variable levels of abstraction via arbitrary chemical kinetics which link to ordinary differential equations. In addition to its compact native syntax, Cyto-Sim currently supports models described as Petri nets, can import all versions of SBML and can export SBML and MATLAB m-files. Cyto-Sim is available free, either as an applet or a stand-alone Java program via the web page (http://www.cosbi.eu/Rpty_Soft_CytoSim.php). Other versions can be made available upon request.
Granita, Bahar, A.
2015-03-01
This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Granita; Bahar, A.
2015-01-01
This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. Mathematical Education, State Islamic University of Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, 28293 Indonesia and Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,Johor (Malaysia); Bahar, A. [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,Johor Malaysia and UTM Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)
2015-03-09
This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found.
Stochastic stability of mechanical systems under renewal jump process parametric excitation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Larsen, Jesper Winther
2005-01-01
independent, negative exponential distributed variables; hence, the arrival process may be termed as a generalized Erlang renewal process. The excitation process is governed by the stochastic equation driven by two independent Poisson processes, with different parameters. If the response in a single mode...... is investigated, the problem is governed in the state space by two stochastic equations, because the stochastic equation for the excitation process is autonomic. However due to the parametric nature of the excitation, the nonlinear term appears at the right-hand sides of the equations. The equations become linear...... of the stochastic equation governing the natural logarithm of the hyperspherical amplitude process and using the modification of the method wherein the time averaging of the pertinent expressions is replaced by ensemble averaging. It is found that the direct simulation is more suitable and that the asymptotic mean...
Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zeng, Kebin
form of discrete PH distributions as computational vehicle on measuring the performance of concurrent wireless sensor networks. Secondly, choosing stochastic process algebras as a widely accepted formalism, we study the compositionality of continuous PH distributions in order to support modelling...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Thomsen, Per Grove; Madsen, Henrik
2007-01-01
We present a novel numerically robust and computationally efficient extended Kalman filter for state estimation in nonlinear continuous-discrete stochastic systems. The resulting differential equations for the mean-covariance evolution of the nonlinear stochastic continuous-discrete time systems...... for nonlinear stochastic continuous-discrete time systems is more than two orders of magnitude faster than a conventional implementation. This is of significance in nonlinear model predictive control applications, statistical process monitoring as well as grey-box modelling of systems described by stochastic...
ARMA modeling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor with significant detection noise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zavaljevski, N.
1992-01-01
The theoretical basis of ARMA modelling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor was presented in a previous paper, neglecting observational noise. The identification of real reactor data indicated that in some experiments the detection noise is significant. Thus a more rigorous theoretical modelling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor is performed. Starting from the fundamental stochastic differential equations of the Langevin type for the interaction of the detector with neutron field, a new theoretical ARMA model is developed. preliminary identification results confirm the theoretical expectations. (author)
Stochastic processes analysis in nuclear reactor using ARMA models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zavaljevski, N.
1990-01-01
The analysis of ARMA model derived from general stochastic state equations of nuclear reactor is given. The dependence of ARMA model parameters on the main physical characteristics of RB nuclear reactor in Vinca is presented. Preliminary identification results are presented, observed discrepancies between theory and experiment are explained and the possibilities of identification improvement are anticipated. (author)
On the rate of convergence of some stochastic processes
Kern, Walter
1989-01-01
We present a general technique for obtaining bounds on the deviation of the optimal value of some stochastic combinatorial problems from their mean. As a particular application, we prove an exponential rate of convergence for the length of a shortest path through n random points in the unit square.
Lanchier, Nicolas
2017-01-01
Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the ...
Stochastic dynamics and irreversibility
Tomé, Tânia
2015-01-01
This textbook presents an exposition of stochastic dynamics and irreversibility. It comprises the principles of probability theory and the stochastic dynamics in continuous spaces, described by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, and in discrete spaces, described by Markov chains and master equations. Special concern is given to the study of irreversibility, both in systems that evolve to equilibrium and in nonequilibrium stationary states. Attention is also given to the study of models displaying phase transitions and critical phenomema both in thermodynamic equilibrium and out of equilibrium. These models include the linear Glauber model, the Glauber-Ising model, lattice models with absorbing states such as the contact process and those used in population dynamic and spreading of epidemic, probabilistic cellular automata, reaction-diffusion processes, random sequential adsorption and dynamic percolation. A stochastic approach to chemical reaction is also presented.The textbook is intended for students of ...
Economic-oriented stochastic optimization in advanced process control of chemical processes.
Dobos, László; Király, András; Abonyi, János
2012-01-01
Finding the optimal operating region of chemical processes is an inevitable step toward improving economic performance. Usually the optimal operating region is situated close to process constraints related to product quality or process safety requirements. Higher profit can be realized only by assuring a relatively low frequency of violation of these constraints. A multilevel stochastic optimization framework is proposed to determine the optimal setpoint values of control loops with respect to predetermined risk levels, uncertainties, and costs of violation of process constraints. The proposed framework is realized as direct search-type optimization of Monte-Carlo simulation of the controlled process. The concept is illustrated throughout by a well-known benchmark problem related to the control of a linear dynamical system and the model predictive control of a more complex nonlinear polymerization process.
Capasso, Vincenzo
2015-01-01
This textbook, now in its third edition, offers a rigorous and self-contained introduction to the theory of continuous-time stochastic processes, stochastic integrals, and stochastic differential equations. Expertly balancing theory and applications, the work features concrete examples of modeling real-world problems from biology, medicine, industrial applications, finance, and insurance using stochastic methods. No previous knowledge of stochastic processes is required. Key topics include: * Markov processes * Stochastic differential equations * Arbitrage-free markets and financial derivatives * Insurance risk * Population dynamics, and epidemics * Agent-based models New to the Third Edition: * Infinitely divisible distributions * Random measures * Levy processes * Fractional Brownian motion * Ergodic theory * Karhunen-Loeve expansion * Additional applications * Additional exercises * Smoluchowski approximation of Langevin systems An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes, Third Editio...
A discrete time formulation for batch processes with storage capacity and storage time limitations
Kilic, O.A.; van Donk, D.P.; Wijngaard, J.
This paper extends the conventional discrete time mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for scheduling multiproduct/multipurpose batch processes by introducing storage capacity and storage time limitations. For this purpose, storage vessels are explicitly modeled on which material
Stochastic partial differential equations
Chow, Pao-Liu
2014-01-01
Preliminaries Introduction Some Examples Brownian Motions and Martingales Stochastic Integrals Stochastic Differential Equations of Itô Type Lévy Processes and Stochastic IntegralsStochastic Differential Equations of Lévy Type Comments Scalar Equations of First Order Introduction Generalized Itô's Formula Linear Stochastic Equations Quasilinear Equations General Remarks Stochastic Parabolic Equations Introduction Preliminaries Solution of Stochastic Heat EquationLinear Equations with Additive Noise Some Regularity Properties Stochastic Reaction-Diffusion Equations Parabolic Equations with Grad
Determination of non-stationary stochastic processes compatible with seismic response/design spectra
Giaralis, A.; Spanos, P. D.
2011-01-01
In this paper the problem of deriving non-stationary stochastic processes defined by a parametric evolutionary power spectrum (EPS) compatible with a given (target) design spectrum is addressed. An inverse stochastic dynamics problem is formulated and solved in a least-square sense to determine the requisite EPS. This involves the incorporation of a “peak factor” which is used to relate statistically the target spectrum to the EPS. Special attention is focused on deriving design spectrum comp...
Leander, Jacob; Lundh, Torbjörn; Jirstrand, Mats
2014-05-01
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating parameters in ordinary differential equations given discrete time experimental data. The impact of going from an ordinary to a stochastic differential equation setting is investigated as a tool to overcome the problem of local minima in the objective function. Using two different models, it is demonstrated that by allowing noise in the underlying model itself, the objective functions to be minimized in the parameter estimation procedures are regularized in the sense that the number of local minima is reduced and better convergence is achieved. The advantage of using stochastic differential equations is that the actual states in the model are predicted from data and this will allow the prediction to stay close to data even when the parameters in the model is incorrect. The extended Kalman filter is used as a state estimator and sensitivity equations are provided to give an accurate calculation of the gradient of the objective function. The method is illustrated using in silico data from the FitzHugh-Nagumo model for excitable media and the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system. The proposed method performs well on the models considered, and is able to regularize the objective function in both models. This leads to parameter estimation problems with fewer local minima which can be solved by efficient gradient-based methods. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Ximei; Johnston, Eric R; Liu, Wei; Li, Linghao; Han, Xingguo
2016-01-01
Both 'species fitness difference'-based deterministic processes, such as competitive exclusion and environmental filtering, and 'species fitness difference'-independent stochastic processes, such as birth/death and dispersal/colonization, can influence the assembly of soil microbial communities. However, how both types of processes are mediated by anthropogenic environmental changes has rarely been explored. Here we report a novel and general pattern that almost all anthropogenic environmental changes that took place in a grassland ecosystem affected soil bacterial community assembly primarily through promoting or restraining stochastic processes. We performed four experiments mimicking 16 types of environmental changes and separated the compositional variation of soil bacterial communities caused by each environmental change into deterministic and stochastic components, with a recently developed method. Briefly, because the difference between control and treatment communities is primarily caused by deterministic processes, the deterministic change was quantified as (mean compositional variation between treatment and control) - (mean compositional variation within control). The difference among replicate treatment communities is primarily caused by stochastic processes, so the stochastic change was estimated as (mean compositional variation within treatment) - (mean compositional variation within control). The absolute of the stochastic change was greater than that of the deterministic change across almost all environmental changes, which was robust for both taxonomic and functional-based criterion. Although the deterministic change may become more important as environmental changes last longer, our findings showed that changes usually occurred through mediating stochastic processes over 5 years, challenging the traditional determinism-dominated view. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Selroos, J. O.; Appleyard, P.; Bym, T.; Follin, S.; Hartley, L.; Joyce, S.; Munier, R.
2015-12-01
In 2011 the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) applied for a license to start construction of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark in Northern Uppland, Sweden. The repository is to be built at approximately 500 m depth in crystalline rock. A stochastic, discrete fracture network (DFN) concept was chosen for interpreting the surface-based (incl. boreholes) data, and for assessing the safety of the repository in terms of groundwater flow and flow pathways to and from the repository. Once repository construction starts, also underground data such as tunnel pilot borehole and tunnel trace data will become available. It is deemed crucial that DFN models developed at this stage honors the mapped structures both in terms of location and geometry, and in terms of flow characteristics. The originally fully stochastic models will thus increase determinism towards the repository. Applying the adopted probabilistic framework, predictive modeling to support acceptance criteria for layout and disposal can be performed with the goal of minimizing risks associated with the repository. This presentation describes and illustrates various methodologies that have been developed to condition stochastic realizations of fracture networks around underground openings using borehole and tunnel trace data, as well as using hydraulic measurements of inflows or hydraulic interference tests. The methodologies, implemented in the numerical simulators ConnectFlow and FracMan/MAFIC, are described in some detail, and verification tests and realistic example cases are shown. Specifically, geometric and hydraulic data are obtained from numerical synthetic realities approximating Forsmark conditions, and are used to test the constraining power of the developed methodologies by conditioning unconditional DFN simulations following the same underlying fracture network statistics. Various metrics are developed to assess how well the conditional simulations compare to
Osada, Hirofumi; Osada, Shota
2018-01-01
We prove tail triviality of determinantal point processes μ on continuous spaces. Tail triviality has been proved for such processes only on discrete spaces, and hence we have generalized the result to continuous spaces. To do this, we construct tree representations, that is, discrete approximations of determinantal point processes enjoying a determinantal structure. There are many interesting examples of determinantal point processes on continuous spaces such as zero points of the hyperbolic Gaussian analytic function with Bergman kernel, and the thermodynamic limit of eigenvalues of Gaussian random matrices for Sine_2 , Airy_2 , Bessel_2 , and Ginibre point processes. Our main theorem proves all these point processes are tail trivial.
ARMA modelling of neutron stochastic processes with large measurement noise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zavaljevski, N.; Kostic, Lj.; Pesic, M.
1994-01-01
An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model of the neutron fluctuations with large measurement noise is derived from langevin stochastic equations and validated using time series data obtained during prompt neutron decay constant measurements at the zero power reactor RB in Vinca. Model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) off-line algorithm and an adaptive pole estimation algorithm based on the recursive prediction error method (RPE). The results show that subcriticality can be determined from real data with high measurement noise using much shorter statistical sample than in standard methods. (author)
Effect of multiplicative noise on stationary stochastic process
Kargovsky, A. V.; Chikishev, A. Yu.; Chichigina, O. A.
2018-03-01
An open system that can be analyzed using the Langevin equation with multiplicative noise is considered. The stationary state of the system results from a balance of deterministic damping and random pumping simulated as noise with controlled periodicity. The dependence of statistical moments of the variable that characterizes the system on parameters of the problem is studied. A nontrivial decrease in the mean value of the main variable with an increase in noise stochasticity is revealed. Applications of the results in several physical, chemical, biological, and technical problems of natural and humanitarian sciences are discussed.
Stochastic Modeling and Deterministic Limit of Catalytic Surface Processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Starke, Jens; Reichert, Christian; Eiswirth, Markus
2007-01-01
Three levels of modeling, microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic are discussed for the CO oxidation on low-index platinum single crystal surfaces. The introduced models on the microscopic and mesoscopic level are stochastic while the model on the macroscopic level is deterministic. It can......, such that in contrast to the microscopic model the spatial resolution is reduced. The derivation of deterministic limit equations is in correspondence with the successful description of experiments under low-pressure conditions by deterministic reaction-diffusion equations while for intermediate pressures phenomena...
Preservation properties for the discrete mean residual life ordering
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdulhakim Al-Babtain
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to prove several preservation properties of stochastic comparisons based on the discrete mean residual life ordering d-MRL under the reliability operations of convolutions, mixtures. Fi nally we introduce a discrete renewal process application
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xuefeng Li
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Based on solving numerically the generalized nonlinear Langevin equation describing the nonlinear dynamics of stochastic resonance by Fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, an aperiodic stochastic resonance based on an optical bistable system is numerically investigated. The numerical results show that a parameter-tuning stochastic resonance system can be realized by choosing the appropriate optical bistable parameters, which performs well in reconstructing aperiodic signals from a very high level of noise background. The influences of optical bistable parameters on the stochastic resonance effect are numerically analyzed via cross-correlation, and a maximum cross-correlation gain of 8 is obtained by optimizing optical bistable parameters. This provides a prospective method for reconstructing noise-hidden weak signals in all-optical signal processing systems.
Disentangling the importance of ecological niches from stochastic processes across scales
Chase, Jonathan M.; Myers, Jonathan A.
2011-01-01
Deterministic theories in community ecology suggest that local, niche-based processes, such as environmental filtering, biotic interactions and interspecific trade-offs largely determine patterns of species diversity and composition. In contrast, more stochastic theories emphasize the importance of chance colonization, random extinction and ecological drift. The schisms between deterministic and stochastic perspectives, which date back to the earliest days of ecology, continue to fuel contemporary debates (e.g. niches versus neutrality). As illustrated by the pioneering studies of Robert H. MacArthur and co-workers, resolution to these debates requires consideration of how the importance of local processes changes across scales. Here, we develop a framework for disentangling the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes in generating site-to-site variation in species composition (β-diversity) along ecological gradients (disturbance, productivity and biotic interactions) and among biogeographic regions that differ in the size of the regional species pool. We illustrate how to discern the importance of deterministic processes using null-model approaches that explicitly account for local and regional factors that inherently create stochastic turnover. By embracing processes across scales, we can build a more synthetic framework for understanding how niches structure patterns of biodiversity in the face of stochastic processes that emerge from local and biogeographic factors. PMID:21768151
3-D discrete shearlet transform and video processing.
Negi, Pooran Singh; Labate, Demetrio
2012-06-01
In this paper, we introduce a digital implementation of the 3-D shearlet transform and illustrate its application to problems of video denoising and enhancement. The shearlet representation is a multiscale pyramid of well-localized waveforms defined at various locations and orientations, which was introduced to overcome the limitations of traditional multiscale systems in dealing with multidimensional data. While the shearlet approach shares the general philosophy of curvelets and surfacelets, it is based on a very different mathematical framework, which is derived from the theory of affine systems and uses shearing matrices rather than rotations. This allows a natural transition from the continuous setting to the digital setting and a more flexible mathematical structure. The 3-D digital shearlet transform algorithm presented in this paper consists in a cascade of a multiscale decomposition and a directional filtering stage. The filters employed in this decomposition are implemented as finite-length filters, and this ensures that the transform is local and numerically efficient. To illustrate its performance, the 3-D discrete shearlet transform is applied to problems of video denoising and enhancement, and compared against other state-of-the-art multiscale techniques, including curvelets and surfacelets.
Consensus states of local majority rule in stochastic process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luo, Yu-Pin; Tang, Chia-Wei; Xu, Hong-Yuan; Wu, Jinn-Wen; Huang, Ming-Chang
2015-01-01
A sufficient condition for a network system to reach a consensus state of the local majority rule is shown. The influence of interpersonal environment on the occurrence probability of consensus states for Watts–Strogatz and scale-free networks with random initial states is analyzed by numerical method. We also propose a stochastic local majority rule to study the mean first passage time from a random state to a consensus and the escape rate from a consensus state for systems in a noisy environment. Our numerical results show that there exists a window of fluctuation strengths for which the mean first passage time from a random to a consensus state reduces greatly, and the escape rate of consensus states obeys the Arrhenius equation in the window. - Highlights: • A sufficient condition for reaching a consensus. • The relation between the geometry of networks and the reachability of a consensus. • Stochastic local majority rule. • The mean first-passage time and the escape rate of consensus states
Numerical Analysis for Stochastic Partial Differential Delay Equations with Jumps
Li, Yan; Hu, Junhao
2013-01-01
We investigate the convergence rate of Euler-Maruyama method for a class of stochastic partial differential delay equations driven by both Brownian motion and Poisson point processes. We discretize in space by a Galerkin method and in time by using a stochastic exponential integrator. We generalize some results of Bao et al. (2011) and Jacob et al. (2009) in finite dimensions to a class of stochastic partial differential delay equations with jumps in infinite dimensions.
Integer valued autoregressive processes with generalized discrete Mittag-Leffler marginals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kanichukattu K. Jose
2013-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper we consider a generalization of discrete Mittag-Leffler distributions. We introduce and study the properties of a new distribution called geometric generalized discrete Mittag-Leffler distribution. Autoregressive processes with geometric generalized discrete Mittag-Leffler distributions are developed and studied. The distributions are further extended to develop a more general class of geometric generalized discrete semi-Mittag-Leffler distributions. The processes are extended to higher orders also. An application with respect to an empirical data on customer arrivals in a bank counter is also given. Various areas of potential applications like human resource development, insect growth, epidemic modeling, industrial risk modeling, insurance and actuaries, town planning etc are also discussed.
Parametric statistical inference for discretely observed diffusion processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Asger Roer
Part 1: Theoretical results Part 2: Statistical applications of Gaussian diffusion processes in freshwater ecology......Part 1: Theoretical results Part 2: Statistical applications of Gaussian diffusion processes in freshwater ecology...
Migliorati, G.
2013-05-30
In this work we consider the random discrete L^2 projection on polynomial spaces (hereafter RDP) for the approximation of scalar quantities of interest (QOIs) related to the solution of a partial differential equation model with random input parameters. In the RDP technique the QOI is first computed for independent samples of the random input parameters, as in a standard Monte Carlo approach, and then the QOI is approximated by a multivariate polynomial function of the input parameters using a discrete least squares approach. We consider several examples including the Darcy equations with random permeability, the linear elasticity equations with random elastic coefficient, and the Navier--Stokes equations in random geometries and with random fluid viscosity. We show that the RDP technique is well suited to QOIs that depend smoothly on a moderate number of random parameters. Our numerical tests confirm the theoretical findings in [G. Migliorati, F. Nobile, E. von Schwerin, and R. Tempone, Analysis of the Discrete $L^2$ Projection on Polynomial Spaces with Random Evaluations, MOX report 46-2011, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy, submitted], which have shown that, in the case of a single uniformly distributed random parameter, the RDP technique is stable and optimally convergent if the number of sampling points is proportional to the square of the dimension of the polynomial space. Here optimality means that the weighted $L^2$ norm of the RDP error is bounded from above by the best $L^\\\\infty$ error achievable in the given polynomial space, up to logarithmic factors. In the case of several random input parameters, the numerical evidence indicates that the condition on quadratic growth of the number of sampling points could be relaxed to a linear growth and still achieve stable and optimal convergence. This makes the RDP technique very promising for moderately high dimensional uncertainty quantification.
Levy-Student processes for a stochastic model of beam halos
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petroni, N. Cufaro; De Martino, S.; De Siena, S.; Illuminati, F.
2006-01-01
We describe the transverse beam distribution in particle accelerators within the controlled, stochastic dynamical scheme of the stochastic mechanics which produces time reversal invariant diffusion processes. In this paper we analyze the consequences of introducing the generalized Student laws, namely non-Gaussian, Levy infinitely divisible (but not stable) distributions. We will analyze this idea from two different standpoints: (a) first by supposing that the stationary distribution of our (Wiener powered) stochastic model is a Student distribution; (b) by supposing that our model is based on a (non-Gaussian) Levy process whose increments are Student distributed. In the case (a) the longer tails of the power decay of the Student laws, and in the case (b) the discontinuities of the Levy-Student process can well account for the rare escape of particles from the beam core, and hence for the formation of a halo in intense beams
Stochastic processes, multiscale modeling, and numerical methods for computational cellular biology
2017-01-01
This book focuses on the modeling and mathematical analysis of stochastic dynamical systems along with their simulations. The collected chapters will review fundamental and current topics and approaches to dynamical systems in cellular biology. This text aims to develop improved mathematical and computational methods with which to study biological processes. At the scale of a single cell, stochasticity becomes important due to low copy numbers of biological molecules, such as mRNA and proteins that take part in biochemical reactions driving cellular processes. When trying to describe such biological processes, the traditional deterministic models are often inadequate, precisely because of these low copy numbers. This book presents stochastic models, which are necessary to account for small particle numbers and extrinsic noise sources. The complexity of these models depend upon whether the biochemical reactions are diffusion-limited or reaction-limited. In the former case, one needs to adopt the framework of s...
Comments on the use of stochastic processes in the field of the ionizing radiations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alvarez Romero, Jose T.
2008-01-01
Stochastic process is the name given to a time dependent random process, unfortunately, its time dependence is not always clearly emphasized. In fact, such dependence is not unequivocally stated in the different disciplines of radiation physics, radiobiology or in radiation protection. This is the cause of some conceptual confusion when interpreting relationships between quantities is analyzed, e.g.: imparted energy vs. absorbed dose, stochastic vs. deterministic biological effects; or in radiation protection models, whether: linear or quadratic, relative or absolute. Most of these relationships are associated to stochastic phenomena, and they carry a time dependence that requires clarification. To mention some examples, in radiation physics: the absorbed dose is a non stochastic quantity resulting from averaging a stochastic one namely, the imparted energy, over a representative ensemble via an operation analogous to the Gibbs-Einstein algorithm. On the other hand stochastic quantities require specialized mathematical techniques of stochastic processes to handle them. These refinements are unfortunately ignored in the reports of ICRU 33 and 60. Essentially, a problem to be solved is to establish a clear relationship between micro or mesoscopic stochastic quantities and their macroscopic counterparts, these latter ones possibly being time dependent or not. This is the main objective of microdosimetry. Another problem is to describe phenomena such as electronic equilibrium which is nothing else than a stationary state thus exhibiting no time dependence. Still a different question is the interpretation of radioactive decay as a stochastic process of the Poisson and Markov type. In radiobiology a basic problem is the study of biological stochastic phenomena is to determine the characteristics and structure of those time dependent probabilistic functions allowing the quantification of macroscopic biological manifestations, such as carcinogenesis or genetic effects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frank, T D
2005-01-01
Stationary distributions of processes are derived that involve a time delay and are defined by a linear stochastic neutral delay differential equation. The distributions are Gaussian distributions. The variances of the Gaussian distributions are either monotonically increasing or decreasing functions of the time delays. The variances become infinite when fixed points of corresponding deterministic processes become unstable. (letter to the editor)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petras Rupšys
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A stochastic modeling approach based on the Bertalanffy law gained interest due to its ability to produce more accurate results than the deterministic approaches. We examine tree crown width dynamic with the Bertalanffy type stochastic differential equation (SDE and mixed-effects parameters. In this study, we demonstrate how this simple model can be used to calculate predictions of crown width. We propose a parameter estimation method and computational guidelines. The primary goal of the study was to estimate the parameters by considering discrete sampling of the diameter at breast height and crown width and by using maximum likelihood procedure. Performance statistics for the crown width equation include statistical indexes and analysis of residuals. We use data provided by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory from Scots pine trees to illustrate issues of our modeling technique. Comparison of the predicted crown width values of mixed-effects parameters model with those obtained using fixed-effects parameters model demonstrates the predictive power of the stochastic differential equations model with mixed-effects parameters. All results were implemented in a symbolic algebra system MAPLE.
Crisan, Dan
2011-01-01
"Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa
Adiabatic reduction of a model of stochastic gene expression with jump Markov process.
Yvinec, Romain; Zhuge, Changjing; Lei, Jinzhi; Mackey, Michael C
2014-04-01
This paper considers adiabatic reduction in a model of stochastic gene expression with bursting transcription considered as a jump Markov process. In this model, the process of gene expression with auto-regulation is described by fast/slow dynamics. The production of mRNA is assumed to follow a compound Poisson process occurring at a rate depending on protein levels (the phenomena called bursting in molecular biology) and the production of protein is a linear function of mRNA numbers. When the dynamics of mRNA is assumed to be a fast process (due to faster mRNA degradation than that of protein) we prove that, with appropriate scalings in the burst rate, jump size or translational rate, the bursting phenomena can be transmitted to the slow variable. We show that, depending on the scaling, the reduced equation is either a stochastic differential equation with a jump Poisson process or a deterministic ordinary differential equation. These results are significant because adiabatic reduction techniques seem to have not been rigorously justified for a stochastic differential system containing a jump Markov process. We expect that the results can be generalized to adiabatic methods in more general stochastic hybrid systems.
Homogeneous Discrete Time Alternating Compound Renewal Process: A Disability Insurance Application
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guglielmo D’Amico
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Discrete time alternating renewal process is a very simple tool that permits solving many real life problems. This paper, after the presentation of this tool, introduces the compound environment in the alternating process giving a systematization to this important tool. The claim costs for a temporary disability insurance contract are presented. The algorithm and an example of application are also provided.
Ising Processing Units: Potential and Challenges for Discrete Optimization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Coffrin, Carleton James [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Nagarajan, Harsha [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bent, Russell Whitford [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-07-05
The recent emergence of novel computational devices, such as adiabatic quantum computers, CMOS annealers, and optical parametric oscillators, presents new opportunities for hybrid-optimization algorithms that leverage these kinds of specialized hardware. In this work, we propose the idea of an Ising processing unit as a computational abstraction for these emerging tools. Challenges involved in using and bench- marking these devices are presented, and open-source software tools are proposed to address some of these challenges. The proposed benchmarking tools and methodology are demonstrated by conducting a baseline study of established solution methods to a D-Wave 2X adiabatic quantum computer, one example of a commercially available Ising processing unit.
Infinite Horizon Discrete Time Control Problems for Bounded Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2009-03-01
Full Text Available We establish Pontryagin Maximum Principles in the strong form for infinite horizon optimal control problems for bounded processes, for systems governed by difference equations. Results due to Ioffe and Tihomirov are among the tools used to prove our theorems. We write necessary conditions with weakened hypotheses of concavity and without invertibility, and we provide new results on the adjoint variable. We show links between bounded problems and nonbounded ones. We also give sufficient conditions of optimality.
Kemper, A; Nishino, T; Schadschneider, A; Zittartz, J
2003-01-01
We develop a new variant of the recently introduced stochastic transfer matrix DMRG which we call stochastic light-cone corner-transfer-matrix DMRG (LCTMRG). It is a numerical method to compute dynamic properties of one-dimensional stochastic processes. As suggested by its name, the LCTMRG is a modification of the corner-transfer-matrix DMRG, adjusted by an additional causality argument. As an example, two reaction-diffusion models, the diffusion-annihilation process and the branch-fusion process are studied and compared with exact data and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the capability and accuracy of the new method. The number of possible Trotter steps of more than 10 sup 5 shows a considerable improvement on the old stochastic TMRG algorithm.
Upper and lower bounds for stochastic processes modern methods and classical problems
Talagrand, Michel
2014-01-01
The book develops modern methods and in particular the "generic chaining" to bound stochastic processes. This methods allows in particular to get optimal bounds for Gaussian and Bernoulli processes. Applications are given to stable processes, infinitely divisible processes, matching theorems, the convergence of random Fourier series, of orthogonal series, and to functional analysis. The complete solution of a number of classical problems is given in complete detail, and an ambitious program for future research is laid out.
Processing of pulse oximeter data using discrete wavelet analysis.
Lee, Seungjoon; Ibey, Bennett L; Xu, Weijian; Wilson, Mark A; Ericson, M Nance; Coté, Gerard L
2005-07-01
A wavelet-based signal processing technique was employed to improve an implantable blood perfusion monitoring system. Data was acquired from both in vitro and in vivo sources: a perfusion model and the proximal jejunum of an adult pig. Results showed that wavelet analysis could isolate perfusion signals from raw, periodic, in vitro data as well as fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods. However, for the quasi-periodic in vivo data segments, wavelet analysis provided more consistent results than the FFT analysis for data segments of 50, 10, and 5 s in length. Wavelet analysis has thus been shown to require less data points for quasi-periodic data than FFT analysis making it a good choice for an indwelling perfusion monitor where power consumption and reaction time are paramount.
Hybrid Semantics of Stochastic Programs with Dynamic Reconfiguration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto Policriti
2009-10-01
Full Text Available We begin by reviewing a technique to approximate the dynamics of stochastic programs --written in a stochastic process algebra-- by a hybrid system, suitable to capture a mixed discrete/continuous evolution. In a nutshell, the discrete dynamics is kept stochastic while the continuous evolution is given in terms of ODEs, and the overall technique, therefore, naturally associates a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process with a stochastic program. The speciﬁc contribution in this work consists in an increase of the ﬂexibility of the translation scheme, obtained by allowing a dynamic reconﬁguration of the degree of discreteness/continuity of the semantics. We also discuss the relationships of this approach with other hybrid simulation strategies for biochemical systems.
Stochastic processes and functional analysis a volume of recent advances in honor of M. M. Rao
Krinik, Alan C
2004-01-01
This extraordinary compilation is an expansion of the recent American Mathematical Society Special Session celebrating M. M. Rao's distinguished career and includes most of the presented papers as well as ancillary contributions from session invitees. This book shows the effectiveness of abstract analysis for solving fundamental problems of stochastic theory, specifically the use of functional analytic methods for elucidating stochastic processes, as made manifest in M. M. Rao's prolific research achievements. Featuring a biography of M. M. Rao, a complete bibliography of his published works,
ℋ∞ constant gain state feedback stabilization of stochastic hybrid systems with Wiener process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. K. Boukas
2004-01-01
Full Text Available This paper considers the stabilization problem of the class of continuous-time linear stochastic hybrid systems with Wiener process. The ℋ∞ state feedback stabilization problem is treated. A state feedback controller with constant gain that does not require access to the system mode is designed. LMI-based conditions are developed to design the state feedback controller with constant gain that stochastically stabilizes the studied class of systems and, at the same time, achieve the disturbance rejection of a desired level. The minimum disturbance rejection is also determined. Numerical examples are given to show the usefulness of the proposed results.
Goodman, Roe W
2016-01-01
This textbook for undergraduate mathematics, science, and engineering students introduces the theory and applications of discrete Fourier and wavelet transforms using elementary linear algebra, without assuming prior knowledge of signal processing or advanced analysis.It explains how to use the Fourier matrix to extract frequency information from a digital signal and how to use circulant matrices to emphasize selected frequency ranges. It introduces discrete wavelet transforms for digital signals through the lifting method and illustrates through examples and computer explorations how these transforms are used in signal and image processing. Then the general theory of discrete wavelet transforms is developed via the matrix algebra of two-channel filter banks. Finally, wavelet transforms for analog signals are constructed based on filter bank results already presented, and the mathematical framework of multiresolution analysis is examined.
Using stochastic population process models to predict the impact of climate change.
van der Meer, J.; Beukema, J.J.; Dekker, R.
2013-01-01
More than ten years ago a paper was published in which stochastic population process models were fitted to time series of two marine polychaete species in the western Wadden Sea, The Netherlands (Van der Meer et al., 2000). For the predator species, model fits pointed to a strong effect of average
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ondreját, Martin
2006-01-01
Roč. 6, č. 1 (2006), s. 23-52 ISSN 0219-4937 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/01/1197 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : stochastic wave equation * spatially homogeneous Wiener process * martingale solution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics
Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes
Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom
2016-01-01
Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.
Nonlocal discrete regularization on weighted graphs: a framework for image and manifold processing.
Elmoataz, Abderrahim; Lezoray, Olivier; Bougleux, Sébastien
2008-07-01
We introduce a nonlocal discrete regularization framework on weighted graphs of the arbitrary topologies for image and manifold processing. The approach considers the problem as a variational one, which consists of minimizing a weighted sum of two energy terms: a regularization one that uses a discrete weighted p-Dirichlet energy and an approximation one. This is the discrete analogue of recent continuous Euclidean nonlocal regularization functionals. The proposed formulation leads to a family of simple and fast nonlinear processing methods based on the weighted p-Laplace operator, parameterized by the degree p of regularity, the graph structure and the graph weight function. These discrete processing methods provide a graph-based version of recently proposed semi-local or nonlocal processing methods used in image and mesh processing, such as the bilateral filter, the TV digital filter or the nonlocal means filter. It works with equal ease on regular 2-D and 3-D images, manifolds or any data. We illustrate the abilities of the approach by applying it to various types of images, meshes, manifolds, and data represented as graphs.
Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters
Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf
2018-03-01
This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.
Application of an enhanced discrete element method to oil and gas drilling processes
Ubach, Pere Andreu; Arrufat, Ferran; Ring, Lev; Gandikota, Raju; Zárate, Francisco; Oñate, Eugenio
2016-03-01
The authors present results on the use of the discrete element method (DEM) for the simulation of drilling processes typical in the oil and gas exploration industry. The numerical method uses advanced DEM techniques using a local definition of the DEM parameters and combined FEM-DEM procedures. This paper presents a step-by-step procedure to build a DEM model for analysis of the soil region coupled to a FEM model for discretizing the drilling tool that reproduces the drilling mechanics of a particular drill bit. A parametric study has been performed to determine the model parameters in order to maintain accurate solutions with reduced computational cost.
Zou, Yong; Donner, Reik V; Kurths, Jürgen
2015-02-01
Long-range correlated processes are ubiquitous, ranging from climate variables to financial time series. One paradigmatic example for such processes is fractional Brownian motion (fBm). In this work, we highlight the potentials and conceptual as well as practical limitations when applying the recently proposed recurrence network (RN) approach to fBm and related stochastic processes. In particular, we demonstrate that the results of a previous application of RN analysis to fBm [Liu et al. Phys. Rev. E 89, 032814 (2014)] are mainly due to an inappropriate treatment disregarding the intrinsic nonstationarity of such processes. Complementarily, we analyze some RN properties of the closely related stationary fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) processes and find that the resulting network properties are well-defined and behave as one would expect from basic conceptual considerations. Our results demonstrate that RN analysis can indeed provide meaningful results for stationary stochastic processes, given a proper selection of its intrinsic methodological parameters, whereas it is prone to fail to uniquely retrieve RN properties for nonstationary stochastic processes like fBm.
Stochastic Analysis of a Queue Length Model Using a Graphics Processing Unit
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Přikryl, Jan; Kocijan, J.
2012-01-01
Roč. 5, č. 2 (2012), s. 55-62 ISSN 1802-971X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) MEB091015 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : graphics processing unit * GPU * Monte Carlo simulation * computer simulation * modeling Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/prikryl-stochastic analysis of a queue length model using a graphics processing unit.pdf
Stochastic Greybox Modeling of an Alternating Activated Sludge Process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halvgaard, Rasmus Fogtmann; Munk-Nielsen, T.; Tychsen, P.
Summary of key findings We found a greybox model for state estimation and control of the BioDenitro process based on a reduced ASM1. We then applied Maximum Likelihood Estimation on measurements from a real full-scale waste water treatment plant to estimate the model parameters. The estimation me...
Stochastic Greybox Modeling of an Alternating Activated Sludge Process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halvgaard, Rasmus Fogtmann; Munk-Nielsen, T.; Tychsen, P.
Summary of key findings We found a greybox model for state estimation and control of the BioDenitro process based on a reduced ASM1. We then applied Maximum Likelihood Estimation on measurements from a real full-scale waste water treatment plant to estimate the model parameters. The estimation me...... forecasts of the load....
Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno
2011-01-01
Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...
Simulation based sequential Monte Carlo methods for discretely observed Markov processes
Neal, Peter
2014-01-01
Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for obtaining samples from the posterior distribution of the parameters. In particular, we introduce two key innovations, coupled simulations, which allow us to study multiple parameter values on the basis of a single sim...
Ooster, van 't A.; Bontsema, J.; Henten, van E.J.; Hemming, S.
2013-01-01
Greenhouse crop system design for maximum efficiency and quality of labour is an optimisation problem that benefits from model-based design evaluation. This study focussed on the harvest process of roses in a static system as a step in this direction. The objective was to identify parameters with
Nonequilibrium critical behavior in unidirectionally coupled stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goldschmidt, Y.Y.; Hinrichsen, H.; Howard, M.; Taeuber, U.C.
1999-01-01
Phase transitions from an active into an absorbing, inactive state are generically described by the critical exponents of directed percolation (DP), with upper critical dimension d c =4. In the framework of single-species reaction-diffusion systems, this universality class is realized by the combined processes A→A+A, A+A→A, and A→0. We study a hierarchy of such DP processes for particle species A,B,hor-ellipsis, unidirectionally coupled via the reactions A→B,hor-ellipsis (with rates μ AB ,hor-ellipsis). When the DP critical points at all levels coincide, multicritical behavior emerges, with density exponents β i which are markedly reduced at each hierarchy level i≥2. This scenario can be understood on the basis of the mean-field rate equations, which yield β i =1/2 i-1 at the multicritical point. Using field-theoretic renormalization-group techniques in d=4-ε dimensions, we identify a new crossover exponent φ, and compute φ=1+O(ε 2 ) in the multicritical regime (for small μ AB ) of the second hierarchy level. In the active phase, we calculate the fluctuation correction to the density exponent on the second hierarchy level, β 2 =1/2-ε/8+O(ε 2 ). Outside the multicritial region, we discuss the crossover to ordinary DP behavior, with the density exponent β 1 =1-ε/6+O(ε 2 ). Monte Carlo simulations are then employed to confirm the crossover scenario, and to determine the values for the new scaling exponents in dimensions d≤3, including the critical initial slip exponent. Our theory is connected to specific classes of growth processes and to certain cellular automata, and the above ideas are also applied to unidirectionally coupled pair annihilation processes. We also discuss some technical as well as conceptual problems of the loop expansion, and suggest some possible interpretations of these difficulties. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society
Anomalous diffusion and scaling in coupled stochastic processes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bel, Golan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nemenman, Ilya [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2009-01-01
Inspired by problems in biochemical kinetics, we study statistical properties of an overdamped Langevin processes with the friction coefficient depending on the state of a similar, unobserved, process. Integrating out the latter, we derive the Pocker-Planck the friction coefficient of the first depends on the state of the second. Integrating out the latter, we derive the Focker-Planck equation for the probability distribution of the former. This has the fonn of diffusion equation with time-dependent diffusion coefficient, resulting in an anomalous diffusion. The diffusion exponent can not be predicted using a simple scaling argument, and anomalous scaling appears as well. The diffusion exponent of the Weiss-Havlin comb model is derived as a special case, and the same exponent holds even for weakly coupled processes. We compare our theoretical predictions with numerical simulations and find an excellent agreement. The findings caution against treating biochemical systems with unobserved dynamical degrees of freedom by means of standandard, diffusive Langevin descritpion.
Tempered stable distributions stochastic models for multiscale processes
Grabchak, Michael
2015-01-01
This brief is concerned with tempered stable distributions and their associated Levy processes. It is a good text for researchers interested in learning about tempered stable distributions. A tempered stable distribution is one which takes a stable distribution and modifies its tails to make them lighter. The motivation for this class comes from the fact that infinite variance stable distributions appear to provide a good fit to data in a variety of situations, but the extremely heavy tails of these models are not realistic for most real world applications. The idea of using distributions that modify the tails of stable models to make them lighter seems to have originated in the influential paper of Mantegna and Stanley (1994). Since then, these distributions have been extended and generalized in a variety of ways. They have been applied to a wide variety of areas including mathematical finance, biostatistics,computer science, and physics.
Multiobjective optimization in structural design with uncertain parameters and stochastic processes
Rao, S. S.
1984-01-01
The application of multiobjective optimization techniques to structural design problems involving uncertain parameters and random processes is studied. The design of a cantilever beam with a tip mass subjected to a stochastic base excitation is considered for illustration. Several of the problem parameters are assumed to be random variables and the structural mass, fatigue damage, and negative of natural frequency of vibration are considered for minimization. The solution of this three-criteria design problem is found by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It is observed that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution, assuming the proper balance of the various objective functions. The procedures used in the present investigation are expected to be useful in the design of general dynamic systems involving uncertain parameters, stochastic process, and multiple objectives.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Milojević Ivan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Almost all processes in the area of business management, especially those of determining reliability of the accounting-information system in business management are connected with certain risk, i.e. they are of a stochastic character, which means that every method for solving these problems must be related to the probability theory and corresponding mathematical-statistical methods. This is why it can be noted that only reliable means for determining the reliability rate of the accounting information system are corresponding mathematical-statistical methods. Having this in mind, in this paper we tried to have the problem of forming the risk rate in the area of reliability of the accounting system solved by applying methods based on stochastic processes of Markov's type.
Whole-field visual motion drives swimming in larval zebrafish via a stochastic process.
Portugues, Ruben; Haesemeyer, Martin; Blum, Mirella L; Engert, Florian
2015-05-01
Caudo-rostral whole-field visual motion elicits forward locomotion in many organisms, including larval zebrafish. Here, we investigate the dependence on the latency to initiate this forward swimming as a function of the speed of the visual motion. We show that latency is highly dependent on speed for slow speeds (1.5 s, which is much longer than neuronal transduction processes. What mechanisms underlie these long latencies? We propose two alternative, biologically inspired models that could account for this latency to initiate swimming: an integrate and fire model, which is history dependent, and a stochastic Poisson model, which has no history dependence. We use these models to predict the behavior of larvae when presented with whole-field motion of varying speed and find that the stochastic process shows better agreement with the experimental data. Finally, we discuss possible neuronal implementations of these models. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
Reddy, V R; Reddy, T G; Reddy, P Y; Reddy, K R
2003-01-01
An AC modulation technique is described to convert stochastic signal variations into an amplitude variation and its retrieval through Fourier analysis. It is shown that this AC detection of signals of stochastic processes when processed through auto- and cross-correlation techniques improve the signal-to-noise ratio; the correlation techniques serve a similar purpose of frequency and phase filtering as that of phase-sensitive detection. A few model calculations applied to nuclear spectroscopy measurements such as Angular Correlations, Mossbauer spectroscopy and Pulse Height Analysis reveal considerable improvement in the sensitivity of signal detection. Experimental implementation of the technique is presented in terms of amplitude variations of harmonics representing the derivatives of normal spectra. Improved detection sensitivity to spectral variations is shown to be significant. These correlation techniques are general and can be made applicable to all the fields of particle counting where measurements ar...
Yang, Xin; Zeng, Zhenxiang; Wang, Ruidong; Sun, Xueshan
2016-01-01
This paper presents a novel method on the optimization of bi-objective Flexible Job-shop Scheduling Problem (FJSP) under stochastic processing times. The robust counterpart model and the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) are used to solve the bi-objective FJSP with consideration of the completion time and the total energy consumption under stochastic processing times. The case study on GM Corporation verifies that the NSGA-II used in this paper is effective and has advantages to solve the proposed model comparing with HPSO and PSO+SA. The idea and method of the paper can be generalized widely in the manufacturing industry, because it can reduce the energy consumption of the energy-intensive manufacturing enterprise with less investment when the new approach is applied in existing systems.
Stationary and related stochastic processes sample function properties and their applications
Cramér, Harald
2004-01-01
This graduate-level text offers a comprehensive account of the general theory of stationary processes, with special emphasis on the properties of sample functions. Assuming a familiarity with the basic features of modern probability theory, the text develops the foundations of the general theory of stochastic processes, examines processes with a continuous-time parameter, and applies the general theory to procedures key to the study of stationary processes. Additional topics include analytic properties of the sample functions and the problem of time distribution of the intersections between a
Model-free stochastic processes studied with q-wavelet-based informational tools
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perez, D.G.; Zunino, L.; Martin, M.T.; Garavaglia, M.; Plastino, A.; Rosso, O.A.
2007-01-01
We undertake a model-free investigation of stochastic processes employing q-wavelet based quantifiers, that constitute a generalization of their Shannon counterparts. It is shown that (i) interesting physical information becomes accessible in such a way (ii) for special q values the quantifiers are more sensitive than the Shannon ones and (iii) there exist an implicit relationship between the Hurst parameter H and q within this wavelet framework
Stochastic processes, optimization, and control theory a volume in honor of Suresh Sethi
Yan, Houmin
2006-01-01
This edited volume contains 16 research articles. It presents recent and pressing issues in stochastic processes, control theory, differential games, optimization, and their applications in finance, manufacturing, queueing networks, and climate control. One of the salient features is that the book is highly multi-disciplinary. The book is dedicated to Professor Suresh Sethi on the occasion of his 60th birthday, in view of his distinguished career.
Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão
2015-03-17
Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with microbial primary succession to better understand mechanisms governing the stochastic/deterministic balance. Synthesizing previous work, we devised a conceptual model that links ecosystem development to alternative hypotheses related to shifts in ecological assembly processes. Conceptual model hypotheses were tested by coupling spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions in a salt marsh chronosequence spanning 105 years of succession. Analyses within successional stages showed community composition to be initially governed by stochasticity, but as succession proceeded, there was a progressive increase in deterministic selection correlated with increasing sodium concentration. Analyses of community turnover among successional stages--which provide a larger spatiotemporal scale relative to within stage analyses--revealed that changes in the concentration of soil organic matter were the main predictor of the type and relative influence of determinism. Taken together, these results suggest scale-dependency in the mechanisms underlying selection. To better understand mechanisms governing these patterns, we developed an ecological simulation model that revealed how changes in selective environments cause shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. Finally, we propose an extended--and experimentally testable--conceptual model integrating ecological assembly processes with primary and secondary succession. This framework provides a priori hypotheses for future experiments, thereby facilitating a systematic approach to understand assembly and succession in microbial communities across ecosystems.
A decision dependent stochastic process model for repairable systems with applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul F. Zantek
2015-12-01
This paper mathematically formalizes the notion of how management actions impact the functioning of a repairable system over time by developing a new stochastic process model for such systems. The proposed model is illustrated using both simulated and real data. The proposed model compares favorably to other models for well-known data on Boeing airplanes. The model is further illustrated and compared to other models on failure time and maintenance data stemming from the South Texas Project nuclear power plant.
Stochastic Differential Equations and Markov Processes in the Modeling of Electrical Circuits
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Rezaeyan
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Stochastic differential equations(SDEs, arise from physical systems that possess inherent noise and certainty. We derive a SDE for electrical circuits. In this paper, we will explore the close relationship between the SDE and autoregressive(AR model. We will solve SDE related to RC circuit with using of AR(1 model (Markov process and however with Euler-Maruyama(EM method. Then, we will compare this solutions. Numerical simulations in MATLAB are obtained.
Stochastic spectral-spatial permutation ordering combination for nonlocal morphological processing
Lézoray, Olivier
2017-01-01
International audience; The extension of mathematical morphology to mul-tivariate data has been an active research topic in recent years. In this paper we propose an approach that relies on the consensus combination of several stochastic permutation orderings. The latter are obtained by searching for a smooth shortest path on a graph representing an image. The construction of the graph can be based on both spatial and spectral information and naturally enables patch-based nonlocal processing.
Using linear programming to analyze and optimize stochastic flow lines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Helber, Stefan; Schimmelpfeng, Katja; Stolletz, Raik
2011-01-01
This paper presents a linear programming approach to analyze and optimize flow lines with limited buffer capacities and stochastic processing times. The basic idea is to solve a huge but simple linear program that models an entire simulation run of a multi-stage production process in discrete time......, to determine a production rate estimate. As our methodology is purely numerical, it offers the full modeling flexibility of stochastic simulation with respect to the probability distribution of processing times. However, unlike discrete-event simulation models, it also offers the optimization power of linear...
Pricing foreign equity option under stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes
Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian
2017-10-01
Considering that financial assets returns exhibit leptokurtosis, asymmetry properties as well as clustering and heteroskedasticity effect, this paper substitutes the logarithm normal jumps in Heston stochastic volatility model by the classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution and normal tempered stable (NTS) distribution to construct stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes (TSSV) model. The TSSV model framework permits infinite activity jump behaviors of return dynamics and time varying volatility consistently observed in financial markets through subordinating tempered stable process to stochastic volatility process, capturing leptokurtosis, fat tailedness and asymmetry features of returns. By employing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique, the formula for probability density function (PDF) of TSSV returns is derived, making the analytical formula for foreign equity option (FEO) pricing available. High frequency financial returns data are employed to verify the effectiveness of proposed models in reflecting the stylized facts of financial markets. Numerical analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between the corresponding parameters and the implied volatility of foreign equity option.
Strong practical stability and stabilization of uncertain discrete linear repetitive processes
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Dabkowski, Pavel; Galkowski, K.; Bachelier, O.; Rogers, E.; Kummert, A.; Lam, J.
2013-01-01
Roč. 20, č. 2 (2013), s. 220-233 ISSN 1070-5325 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : strong practical stability * stabilization * uncertain discrete linear repetitive processes * linear matrix inequality Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.424, year: 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/nla.812/abstract
Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier
1994-01-01
The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processe...
Susceptibility of optimal train schedules to stochastic disturbances of process times
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Rune; Pranzo, Marco; D’Ariano, Andrea
2013-01-01
This work focuses on the stochastic evaluation of train schedules computed by a microscopic scheduler of railway operations based on deterministic information. The research question is to assess the degree of sensitivity of various rescheduling algorithms to variations in process times (running...... and dwell times). In fact, the objective of railway traffic management is to reduce delay propagation and to increase disturbance robustness of train schedules at a network scale. We present a quantitative study of traffic disturbances and their effects on the schedules computed by simple and advanced...... rescheduling algorithms. Computational results are based on a complex and densely occupied Dutch railway area; train delays are computed based on accepted statistical distributions, and dwell and running times of trains are subject to additional stochastic variations. From the results obtained on a real case...
Tsekouras, Georgios; Ioannou, Christos; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
2013-04-01
The drawbacks of conventional energy sources including their negative environmental impacts emphasize the need to integrate renewable energy sources into energy balance. However, the renewable sources strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological processes, including wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of hybrid energy systems we investigate the stochastic properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence. We use wind speed and sunshine duration time series retrieved from a European database of daily records and we estimate representative values of the Hurst coefficient for both variables. We conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale. To this we use the Castalia software system which performs multivariate stochastic simulation. Using these time series as input, we perform stochastic simulation of an autonomous hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system and optimize its performance using genetic algorithms. For the system design we optimize the sizing of the system in order to satisfy the energy demand with high reliability also minimizing the cost. While the simulation scale is the daily, a simple method allows utilizing the subdaily distribution of the produced wind power. Various scenarios are assumed in order to examine the influence of input parameters, such as the Hurst coefficient, and design parameters such as the photovoltaic panel angle.
Dimension reduction of Karhunen-Loeve expansion for simulation of stochastic processes
Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zixin; Peng, Yongbo
2017-11-01
Conventional Karhunen-Loeve expansions for simulation of stochastic processes often encounter the challenge of dealing with hundreds of random variables. For breaking through the barrier, a random function embedded Karhunen-Loeve expansion method is proposed in this paper. The updated scheme has a similar form to the conventional Karhunen-Loeve expansion, both involving a summation of a series of deterministic orthonormal basis and uncorrelated random variables. While the difference from the updated scheme lies in the dimension reduction of Karhunen-Loeve expansion through introducing random functions as a conditional constraint upon uncorrelated random variables. The random function is expressed as a single-elementary-random-variable orthogonal function in polynomial format (non-Gaussian variables) or trigonometric format (non-Gaussian and Gaussian variables). For illustrative purposes, the simulation of seismic ground motion is carried out using the updated scheme. Numerical investigations reveal that the Karhunen-Loeve expansion with random functions could gain desirable simulation results in case of a moderate sample number, except the Hermite polynomials and the Laguerre polynomials. It has the sound applicability and efficiency in simulation of stochastic processes. Besides, the updated scheme has the benefit of integrating with probability density evolution method, readily for the stochastic analysis of nonlinear structures.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E
2003-01-01
Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Azam Imomov
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Our principal aim is to observe a Markov discrete-time process of population growth with long-living trajectory. First we study asymptotical decay of generating function of Galton-Watson process for all cases as the Basic Lemma. Afterwards we get a Differential analogue of the Basic Lemma. This Lemma plays main role in our discussions throughout the paper. Hereupon we improve and supplement classical results concerning Galton-Watson process. Further we investigate properties of the population process so called Q-process. In particular we obtain a joint limit law of Q-process and its total state. And also we state and prove the analogue of Law of large numbers and the Central limit theorem for total state of Q-process.
Noninvertibility and resonance in discrete-time neural networks for time-series processing
Gicquel, N.; Anderson, J. S.; Kevrekidis, I. G.
1998-01-01
We present a computer-assisted study emphasizing certain elements of the dynamics of artificial neural networks (ANNs) used for discrete time-series processing and nonlinear system identification. The structure of the network gives rise to the possibility of multiple inverses of a phase point backward in time; this is not possible for the continuous-time system from which the time series are obtained. Using a two-dimensional illustrative model in an oscillatory regime, we study here the interaction of attractors predicted by the discrete-time ANN model (invariant circles and periodic points locked on them) with critical curves. These curves constitute a generalization of critical points for maps of the interval (in the sense of Julia-Fatou); their interaction with the model-predicted attractors plays a crucial role in the organization of the bifurcation structure and ultimately in determining the dynamic behavior predicted by the neural network.
Variations of Ship’s Deck Elevation Due to Stochastic Process of Containers Loading
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Przemyslaw Krata
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The stochastic process of container loading is described in the paper with special emphasis to ship motion when she is lying at a quay. The 3 DOF system was applied to describe rolling, pitching and heaving of a vessel which may cause a significant variations of momentary deck elevation. The realistic range of such variations are assessed for a variety of cargo locations on-board and a phase shift between two independent gantries engaged in cargo operations. The process is modeled with regard to random character of crucial variables affecting ship motion due to cargo loading.
SDE decomposition and A-type stochastic interpretation in nonequilibrium processes
Yuan, Ruoshi; Tang, Ying; Ao, Ping
2017-12-01
An innovative theoretical framework for stochastic dynamics based on the decomposition of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) into a dissipative component, a detailed-balance-breaking component, and a dual-role potential landscape has been developed, which has fruitful applications in physics, engineering, chemistry, and biology. It introduces the A-type stochastic interpretation of the SDE beyond the traditional Ito or Stratonovich interpretation or even the α-type interpretation for multidimensional systems. The potential landscape serves as a Hamiltonian-like function in nonequilibrium processes without detailed balance, which extends this important concept from equilibrium statistical physics to the nonequilibrium region. A question on the uniqueness of the SDE decomposition was recently raised. Our review of both the mathematical and physical aspects shows that uniqueness is guaranteed. The demonstration leads to a better understanding of the robustness of the novel framework. In addition, we discuss related issues including the limitations of an approach to obtaining the potential function from a steady-state distribution.
A stochastic model of the processes in PCR based amplification of STR DNA in forensic applications.
Weusten, Jos; Herbergs, Jos
2012-01-01
In forensic DNA profiling use is made of the well-known technique of PCR. When the amount of DNA is high, generally unambiguous profiles can be obtained, but for low copy number DNA stochastic effects can play a major role. In order to shed light on these stochastic effects, we present a simple model for the amplification process. According to the model, three possible things can happen to an individual single DNA strand in each complete cycle: successful amplification, no amplification, or amplification with the introduction of stutter. The model is developed in mathematical terms using a recursive approach: given the numbers of chains at a given cycle, the numbers in the next can be described using a multinomial probability distribution. A full set of recursive relations is derived for the expectations and (co)variances of the number of amplicon chains with no, 1 or 2 stutters. The exact mathematical solutions of this set are given, revealing the development of the expectations and (co)variances as function of the cycle number. The equations reveal that the expected number of amplicon chains without stutter grows exponentially with the cycle number, but for the chains with stutter the relation is more complex. The relative standard deviation on the numbers of chains (coefficient of variation) is inversely proportional to the square root of the expected number of DNA strands entering the amplification. As such, for high copy number DNA the stochastic effects can be ignored, but they play an important role at low concentrations. For the allelic peak, the coefficient of variation rapidly stabilizes after a few cycles, but for the chains with stutter the decrease is more slowly. Further, the ratio of the expected intensity of the stutter peak over that of the allelic peak increases linearly with the number of cycles. Stochastic models, like the one developed in the current paper, can be important in further developing interpretation rules in a Bayesian context
Hidden symmetries and equilibrium properties of multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arenas, Zochil González; Barci, Daniel G
2012-01-01
Multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes continue to attract attention in a wide area of scientific research. The variety of prescriptions available for defining them makes the development of general tools for their characterization difficult. In this work, we study equilibrium properties of Markovian multiplicative white-noise processes. For this, we define the time reversal transformation for such processes, taking into account that the asymptotic stationary probability distribution depends on the prescription. Representing the stochastic process in a functional Grassmann formalism, we avoid the necessity of fixing a particular prescription. In this framework, we analyze equilibrium properties and study hidden symmetries of the process. We show that, using a careful definition of the equilibrium distribution and taking into account the appropriate time reversal transformation, usual equilibrium properties are satisfied for any prescription. Finally, we present a detailed deduction of a covariant supersymmetric formulation of a multiplicative Markovian white-noise process and study some of the constraints that it imposes on correlation functions using Ward–Takahashi identities. (paper)
Peccati, Giovanni
2016-01-01
Stochastic geometry is the branch of mathematics that studies geometric structures associated with random configurations, such as random graphs, tilings and mosaics. Due to its close ties with stereology and spatial statistics, the results in this area are relevant for a large number of important applications, e.g. to the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of telecommunication networks, geostatistics and image analysis. In recent years – due mainly to the impetus of the authors and their collaborators – a powerful connection has been established between stochastic geometry and the Malliavin calculus of variations, which is a collection of probabilistic techniques based on the properties of infinite-dimensional differential operators. This has led in particular to the discovery of a large number of new quantitative limit theorems for high-dimensional geometric objects. This unique book presents an organic collection of authoritative surveys written by the principal actors in this rapidly evolvi...
Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monràs, Alex; Winter, Andreas
2016-01-01
Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651–664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine
Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Monràs, Alex [Física Teòrica: Informació i Fenòmens Quàntics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, 3 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); Winter, Andreas [Física Teòrica: Informació i Fenòmens Quàntics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, 3 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); ICREA—Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Pg. Lluis Companys, 23, 08010 Barcelona (Spain)
2016-01-15
Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651–664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine
Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem
Monràs, Alex; Winter, Andreas
2016-01-01
Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651-664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gupta, Chinmaya; López, José Manuel; Azencott, Robert; Ott, William; Bennett, Matthew R.; Josić, Krešimir
2014-01-01
Delay is an important and ubiquitous aspect of many biochemical processes. For example, delay plays a central role in the dynamics of genetic regulatory networks as it stems from the sequential assembly of first mRNA and then protein. Genetic regulatory networks are therefore frequently modeled as stochastic birth-death processes with delay. Here, we examine the relationship between delay birth-death processes and their appropriate approximating delay chemical Langevin equations. We prove a quantitative bound on the error between the pathwise realizations of these two processes. Our results hold for both fixed delay and distributed delay. Simulations demonstrate that the delay chemical Langevin approximation is accurate even at moderate system sizes. It captures dynamical features such as the oscillatory behavior in negative feedback circuits, cross-correlations between nodes in a network, and spatial and temporal information in two commonly studied motifs of metastability in biochemical systems. Overall, these results provide a foundation for using delay stochastic differential equations to approximate the dynamics of birth-death processes with delay
Gupta, Chinmaya; López, José Manuel; Azencott, Robert; Bennett, Matthew R; Josić, Krešimir; Ott, William
2014-05-28
Delay is an important and ubiquitous aspect of many biochemical processes. For example, delay plays a central role in the dynamics of genetic regulatory networks as it stems from the sequential assembly of first mRNA and then protein. Genetic regulatory networks are therefore frequently modeled as stochastic birth-death processes with delay. Here, we examine the relationship between delay birth-death processes and their appropriate approximating delay chemical Langevin equations. We prove a quantitative bound on the error between the pathwise realizations of these two processes. Our results hold for both fixed delay and distributed delay. Simulations demonstrate that the delay chemical Langevin approximation is accurate even at moderate system sizes. It captures dynamical features such as the oscillatory behavior in negative feedback circuits, cross-correlations between nodes in a network, and spatial and temporal information in two commonly studied motifs of metastability in biochemical systems. Overall, these results provide a foundation for using delay stochastic differential equations to approximate the dynamics of birth-death processes with delay.
Stochastic R matrix for Uq (An(1))
Kuniba, A.; Mangazeev, V. V.; Maruyama, S.; Okado, M.
2016-12-01
We show that the quantum R matrix for symmetric tensor representations of Uq (An(1)) satisfies the sum rule required for its stochastic interpretation under a suitable gauge. Its matrix elements at a special point of the spectral parameter are found to factorize into the form that naturally extends Povolotsky's local transition rate in the q-Hahn process for n = 1. Based on these results we formulate new discrete and continuous time integrable Markov processes on a one-dimensional chain in terms of n species of particles obeying asymmetric stochastic dynamics. Bethe ansatz eigenvalues of the Markov matrices are also given.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Neu, Charles R; Davenport, Jon; Smith, William R
2007-01-01
This paper uses discrete-event simulation modeling, inventory-reduction, and process improvement concepts to identify and analyze possibilities for improving the training continuum at the Marine Corps...
Stochastic Processes and Queueing Theory used in Cloud Computer Performance Simulations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florin-Catalin ENACHE
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The growing character of the cloud business has manifested exponentially in the last 5 years. The capacity managers need to concentrate on a practical way to simulate the random demands a cloud infrastructure could face, even if there are not too many mathematical tools to simulate such demands.This paper presents an introduction into the most important stochastic processes and queueing theory concepts used for modeling computer performance. Moreover, it shows the cases where such concepts are applicable and when not, using clear programming examples on how to simulate a queue, and how to use and validate a simulation, when there are no mathematical concepts to back it up.
Krylov, N. V.; Priola, E.
2017-09-01
We show, among other things, how knowing Schauder or Sobolev-space estimates for the one-dimensional heat equation allows one to derive their multidimensional analogs for equations with coefficients depending only on the time variable with the same constants as in the case of the one-dimensional heat equation. The method is quite general and is based on using the Poisson stochastic process. It also applies to equations involving non-local operators. It looks like no other methods are available at this time and it is a very challenging problem to find a purely analytical approach to proving such results.
The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process
Ishii, Akira; Arakaki, Hisashi; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshida, Narihiko
2012-06-01
A mathematical model for the ‘hit’ phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vignes, J.
1986-01-01
Any result of algorithms provided by a computer always contains an error resulting from floating-point arithmetic round-off error propagation. Furthermore signal processing algorithms are also generally performed with data containing errors. The permutation-perturbation method, also known under the name CESTAC (controle et estimation stochastique d'arrondi de calcul) is a very efficient practical method for evaluating these errors and consequently for estimating the exact significant decimal figures of any result of algorithms performed on a computer. The stochastic approach of this method, its probabilistic proof, and the perfect agreement between the theoretical and practical aspects are described in this paper [fr
StochPy: a comprehensive, user-friendly tool for simulating stochastic biological processes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Timo R Maarleveld
Full Text Available Single-cell and single-molecule measurements indicate the importance of stochastic phenomena in cell biology. Stochasticity creates spontaneous differences in the copy numbers of key macromolecules and the timing of reaction events between genetically-identical cells. Mathematical models are indispensable for the study of phenotypic stochasticity in cellular decision-making and cell survival. There is a demand for versatile, stochastic modeling environments with extensive, preprogrammed statistics functions and plotting capabilities that hide the mathematics from the novice users and offers low-level programming access to the experienced user. Here we present StochPy (Stochastic modeling in Python, which is a flexible software tool for stochastic simulation in cell biology. It provides various stochastic simulation algorithms, SBML support, analyses of the probability distributions of molecule copy numbers and event waiting times, analyses of stochastic time series, and a range of additional statistical functions and plotting facilities for stochastic simulations. We illustrate the functionality of StochPy with stochastic models of gene expression, cell division, and single-molecule enzyme kinetics. StochPy has been successfully tested against the SBML stochastic test suite, passing all tests. StochPy is a comprehensive software package for stochastic simulation of the molecular control networks of living cells. It allows novice and experienced users to study stochastic phenomena in cell biology. The integration with other Python software makes StochPy both a user-friendly and easily extendible simulation tool.
Discrete event simulation tool for analysis of qualitative models of continuous processing systems
Malin, Jane T. (Inventor); Basham, Bryan D. (Inventor); Harris, Richard A. (Inventor)
1990-01-01
An artificial intelligence design and qualitative modeling tool is disclosed for creating computer models and simulating continuous activities, functions, and/or behavior using developed discrete event techniques. Conveniently, the tool is organized in four modules: library design module, model construction module, simulation module, and experimentation and analysis. The library design module supports the building of library knowledge including component classes and elements pertinent to a particular domain of continuous activities, functions, and behavior being modeled. The continuous behavior is defined discretely with respect to invocation statements, effect statements, and time delays. The functionality of the components is defined in terms of variable cluster instances, independent processes, and modes, further defined in terms of mode transition processes and mode dependent processes. Model construction utilizes the hierarchy of libraries and connects them with appropriate relations. The simulation executes a specialized initialization routine and executes events in a manner that includes selective inherency of characteristics through a time and event schema until the event queue in the simulator is emptied. The experimentation and analysis module supports analysis through the generation of appropriate log files and graphics developments and includes the ability of log file comparisons.
Analysis methods of stochastic transient electro–magnetic processes in electric traction system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. M. Mishchenko
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Purpose. The essence and basic characteristics of calculation methods of transient electromagnetic processes in the elements and devices of non–linear dynamic electric traction systems taking into account the stochastic changes of voltages and currents in traction networks of power supply subsystem and power circuits of electric rolling stock are developed. Methodology. Classical methods and the methods of non–linear electric engineering, as well as probability theory method, especially the methods of stationary ergodic and non–stationary stochastic processes application are used in the research. Findings. Using the above-mentioned methods an equivalent circuit and the system of nonlinear integra–differential equations for electromagnetic condition of the double–track inter-substation zone of alternating current electric traction system are drawn up. Calculations allow obtaining electric traction current distribution in the areas of feeder zones. Originality. First of all the paper is interesting and important from scientific point of view due to the methods, which allow taking into account probabilistic character of change for traction voltages and electric traction system currents. On the second hand the researches develop the most efficient methods of nonlinear circuits’ analysis. Practical value. The practical value of the research is presented in application of the methods to the analysis of electromagnetic and electric energy processes in the traction power supply system in the case of high-speed train traffic.
Strategic WIP Inventory Positioning for Make-to-Order Production with Stochastic Processing Times
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jingjing Jiang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available It is vital for make-to-order manufacturers to shorten the lead time to meet the customers’ requirements. Holding work-in-process (WIP inventory at more stations can reduce the lead time, but it also brings about higher inventory holding cost. Therefore, it is important to seek out the optimal set of stations to hold WIP inventory to minimize the total inventory holding cost, while meeting the required due date for the final product at the same time. Since the problem with deterministic processing times at the stations has been addressed, as a natural extension, in this study, we address the problem with stochastic processing times, which is more realistic in the manufacturing environment. Assuming that the processing times follow normal distributions, we propose a solution procedure using genetic algorithm.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Drawert Brian
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Experiments in silico using stochastic reaction-diffusion models have emerged as an important tool in molecular systems biology. Designing computational software for such applications poses several challenges. Firstly, realistic lattice-based modeling for biological applications requires a consistent way of handling complex geometries, including curved inner- and outer boundaries. Secondly, spatiotemporal stochastic simulations are computationally expensive due to the fast time scales of individual reaction- and diffusion events when compared to the biological phenomena of actual interest. We therefore argue that simulation software needs to be both computationally efficient, employing sophisticated algorithms, yet in the same time flexible in order to meet present and future needs of increasingly complex biological modeling. Results We have developed URDME, a flexible software framework for general stochastic reaction-transport modeling and simulation. URDME uses Unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes to resolve general geometries, and relies on the Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation formalism to model the processes under study. An interface to a mature geometry and mesh handling external software (Comsol Multiphysics provides for a stable and interactive environment for model construction. The core simulation routines are logically separated from the model building interface and written in a low-level language for computational efficiency. The connection to the geometry handling software is realized via a Matlab interface which facilitates script computing, data management, and post-processing. For practitioners, the software therefore behaves much as an interactive Matlab toolbox. At the same time, it is possible to modify and extend URDME with newly developed simulation routines. Since the overall design effectively hides the complexity of managing the geometry and meshes, this means that newly developed methods
Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui; Peng, Yongbo
2018-03-01
In view of the Fourier-Stieltjes integral formula of multivariate stationary stochastic processes, a unified formulation accommodating spectral representation method (SRM) and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is deduced. By introducing random functions as constraints correlating the orthogonal random variables involved in the unified formulation, the dimension-reduction spectral representation method (DR-SRM) and the dimension-reduction proper orthogonal decomposition (DR-POD) are addressed. The proposed schemes are capable of representing the multivariate stationary stochastic process with a few elementary random variables, bypassing the challenges of high-dimensional random variables inherent in the conventional Monte Carlo methods. In order to accelerate the numerical simulation, the technique of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is integrated with the proposed schemes. For illustrative purposes, the simulation of horizontal wind velocity field along the deck of a large-span bridge is proceeded using the proposed methods containing 2 and 3 elementary random variables. Numerical simulation reveals the usefulness of the dimension-reduction representation methods.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub
2013-01-01
There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huapu Lu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper aims at introducing a new improved stochastic differential equation related to Gompertz curve for the projection of vehicle ownership growth. This diffusion model explains the relationship between vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, which has been studied as a Gompertz-like function before. The main innovations of the process lie in two parts: by modifying the deterministic part of the original Gompertz equation, the model can present the remaining slow increase when the S-shaped curve has reached its saturation level; by introducing the stochastic differential equation, the model can better fit the real data when there are fluctuations. Such comparisons are carried out based on data from US, UK, Japan, and Korea with a time span of 1960–2008. It turns out that the new process behaves better in fitting curves and predicting short term growth. Finally, a prediction of Chinese vehicle ownership up to 2025 is presented with the new model, as China is on the initial stage of motorization with much fluctuations in growth.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
2013-10-15
There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.
Producing a functional eukaryotic messenger RNA (mRNA) requires the coordinated activity of several large protein complexes to initiate transcription, elongate nascent transcripts, splice together exons, and cleave and polyadenylate the 3’ end. Kinetic competition between these various processes has been proposed to regulate mRNA maturation, but this model could lead to multiple, randomly determined, or stochastic, pathways or outcomes. Regulatory checkpoints have been suggested as a means of ensuring quality control. However, current methods have been unable to tease apart the contributions of these processes at a single gene or on a time scale that could provide mechanistic insight. To begin to investigate the kinetic relationship between transcription and splicing, Daniel Larson, Ph.D., of CCR’s Laboratory of Receptor Biology and Gene Expression, and his colleagues employed a single-molecule RNA imaging approach to monitor production and processing of a human β-globin reporter gene in living cells.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Hongshun; Zhou Huaichun; Lu Jidong; Zheng Chuguang
2003-01-01
In most of the discrete ordinate schemes (DOS) reported in the literature, the discrete directions are fixed, and unable to be arbitrarily adjusted; therefore, it is difficult to employ these schemes to calculate the radiative energy image-formation of pulverized-coal furnaces. On the basis of a new DOS, named the discrete ordinate scheme with (an) infinitely small weight(s), which was recently proposed by the authors, a novel algorithm for computing the pinhole image-formation process is developed in this work. The performance of this algorithm is tested, and is found to be also suitable for parallel computation
Li, Nan; Wang, Junzheng
2016-03-01
A highly efficient Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory (SDRAM) controller supporting variable-length burst access and batch process for discrete reads is proposed in this paper. Based on the Principle of Locality, command First In First Out (FIFO) and address range detector are designed within this controller to accelerate its responses to discrete read requests, which dramatically improves the average Effective Bus Utilization Ratio (EBUR) of SDRAM. Our controller is finally verified by driving the Micron 256-Mb SDRAM MT48LC16M16A2. Successful simulation and verification results show that our controller exhibits much higher EBUR than do most existing designs in case of discrete reads.
Medium Term Hydroelectric Production Planning - A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
BITA ANALUI
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Multistage stochastic programming is a key technology for making decisions over time in an uncertain environment. One of the promising areas in which this technology is implementable, is medium term planning of electricity production and trading where decision makers are typically faced with uncertain parameters (such as future demands and market prices that can be described by stochastic processes in discrete time. We apply this methodology to hydrosystem operation assuming random electricity prices and random inflows to the reservoir system. After describing the multistage stochastic model a simple case study is presented. In particular we use the model for pricing an electricity delivery contract in the framework of indifference pricing.
Wang, Jianjun; Shen, Ji; Wu, Yucheng; Tu, Chen; Soininen, Janne; Stegen, James C; He, Jizheng; Liu, Xingqi; Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Enlou
2013-01-01
Increasing evidence has emerged for non-random spatial distributions of microbes, but knowledge of the processes that cause variation in microbial assemblage among ecosystems is lacking. For instance, some studies showed that deterministic processes such as habitat specialization are important, while other studies hold that bacterial communities are assembled by stochastic forces. Here we examine the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes for bacterial communities from subsurface environments, stream biofilm, lake water, lake sediment and soil using pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. We show that there is a general pattern in phylogenetic signal in species ecological niches across recent evolutionary time for all studied habitats, enabling us to infer the influences of community assembly processes from patterns of phylogenetic turnover in community composition. The phylogenetic dissimilarities among-habitat types were significantly higher than within them, and the communities were clustered according to their original habitat types. For communities within-habitat types, the highest phylogenetic turnover rate through space was observed in subsurface environments, followed by stream biofilm on mountainsides, whereas the sediment assemblages across regional scales showed the lowest turnover rate. Quantifying phylogenetic turnover as the deviation from a null expectation suggested that measured environmental variables imposed strong selection on bacterial communities for nearly all sample groups. For three sample groups, spatial distance reflected unmeasured environmental variables that impose selection, as opposed to spatial isolation. Such characterization of spatial and environmental variables proved essential for proper interpretation of partial Mantel results based on observed beta diversity metrics. In summary, our results clearly indicate a dominant role of deterministic processes on bacterial assemblages and highlight that
Inhomogeneous point-process entropy: An instantaneous measure of complexity in discrete systems
Valenza, Gaetano; Citi, Luca; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale; Barbieri, Riccardo
2014-05-01
Measures of entropy have been widely used to characterize complexity, particularly in physiological dynamical systems modeled in discrete time. Current approaches associate these measures to finite single values within an observation window, thus not being able to characterize the system evolution at each moment in time. Here, we propose a new definition of approximate and sample entropy based on the inhomogeneous point-process theory. The discrete time series is modeled through probability density functions, which characterize and predict the time until the next event occurs as a function of the past history. Laguerre expansions of the Wiener-Volterra autoregressive terms account for the long-term nonlinear information. As the proposed measures of entropy are instantaneously defined through probability functions, the novel indices are able to provide instantaneous tracking of the system complexity. The new measures are tested on synthetic data, as well as on real data gathered from heartbeat dynamics of healthy subjects and patients with cardiac heart failure and gait recordings from short walks of young and elderly subjects. Results show that instantaneous complexity is able to effectively track the system dynamics and is not affected by statistical noise properties.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vieira, Fabio P.B.; Bevilacqua, Joyce S.
2014-01-01
The use of electron paramagnetic resonance spectrometers - EPR - in radiation dosimetry is known for more than four decades. It is an important tool in the retrospective determination of doses absorbed. To estimate the dose absorbed by the sample, it is necessary to know the amplitude of the peak to peak signature of the substance in its EPR spectrum. This information can be compromised by the presence of spurious information: noise - of random and low intensity nature; and the behavior of the baseline - coming from the coupling between the resonator tube and the sample analyzed. Due to the intrinsic characteristics of the three main components of the signal, i.e. signature, noise, and baseline - the analysis in the frequency domain allows, through post-processing techniques to filter spurious information. In this work, an algorithm that retrieves the signature of a substance has been implemented. The Discrete Fourier Transform is applied to the signal and without user intervention, the noise is filtered. From the filtered signal, recovers the signature by Inverse Discrete Fourier Transform. The peak to peak amplitude, and the absorbed dose is calculated with an error of less than 1% for signals wherein the base line is linearized. Some more general cases are under investigation and with little user intervention, you can get the same error
Giordano, Peter J
2014-06-01
An important objective of personality psychology is to provide compelling descriptions and explanations of intraindividual personality dynamics that capture the unique qualities of persons. Among contemporary Western personality theories, the Five-Factor Model enjoys prominence in describing individual differences in personality traits. It falls short, however, in its ability to work with intraindividual personality function. This article argues that classical Confucianism, originating 2500 years ago in mainland China, offers Western personality psychologists important theoretical resources for capturing the complex and dynamic processes inherent in human personality. The Confucian perspective emphasizes a behaviorally anchored, continuous, stochastic, process-oriented understanding of the self as relationally constructed and proposes an elegant description of the relational virtuosity of exemplary persons. The article concludes with five characteristics of a Confucian inspired model of personality and questions the viability of a universal theory of personality.
Sulis, William H
2017-10-01
Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.
Experimentally modeling stochastic processes with less memory by the use of a quantum processor.
Palsson, Matthew S; Gu, Mile; Ho, Joseph; Wiseman, Howard M; Pryde, Geoff J
2017-02-01
Computer simulation of observable phenomena is an indispensable tool for engineering new technology, understanding the natural world, and studying human society. However, the most interesting systems are often so complex that simulating their future behavior demands storing immense amounts of information regarding how they have behaved in the past. For increasingly complex systems, simulation becomes increasingly difficult and is ultimately constrained by resources such as computer memory. Recent theoretical work shows that quantum theory can reduce this memory requirement beyond ultimate classical limits, as measured by a process' statistical complexity, C . We experimentally demonstrate this quantum advantage in simulating stochastic processes. Our quantum implementation observes a memory requirement of C q = 0.05 ± 0.01, far below the ultimate classical limit of C = 1. Scaling up this technique would substantially reduce the memory required in simulations of more complex systems.
The use of discrete-event simulation modelling to improve radiation therapy planning processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Werker, Greg; Saure, Antoine; French, John; Shechter, Steven
2009-01-01
Background and purpose: The planning portion of the radiation therapy treatment process at the British Columbia Cancer Agency is efficient but nevertheless contains room for improvement. The purpose of this study is to show how a discrete-event simulation (DES) model can be used to represent this complex process and to suggest improvements that may reduce the planning time and ultimately reduce overall waiting times. Materials and methods: A simulation model of the radiation therapy (RT) planning process was constructed using the Arena simulation software, representing the complexities of the system. Several types of inputs feed into the model; these inputs come from historical data, a staff survey, and interviews with planners. Results: The simulation model was validated against historical data and then used to test various scenarios to identify and quantify potential improvements to the RT planning process. Conclusions: Simulation modelling is an attractive tool for describing complex systems, and can be used to identify improvements to the processes involved. It is possible to use this technique in the area of radiation therapy planning with the intent of reducing process times and subsequent delays for patient treatment. In this particular system, reducing the variability and length of oncologist-related delays contributes most to improving the planning time.
The use of discrete-event simulation modelling to improve radiation therapy planning processes.
Werker, Greg; Sauré, Antoine; French, John; Shechter, Steven
2009-07-01
The planning portion of the radiation therapy treatment process at the British Columbia Cancer Agency is efficient but nevertheless contains room for improvement. The purpose of this study is to show how a discrete-event simulation (DES) model can be used to represent this complex process and to suggest improvements that may reduce the planning time and ultimately reduce overall waiting times. A simulation model of the radiation therapy (RT) planning process was constructed using the Arena simulation software, representing the complexities of the system. Several types of inputs feed into the model; these inputs come from historical data, a staff survey, and interviews with planners. The simulation model was validated against historical data and then used to test various scenarios to identify and quantify potential improvements to the RT planning process. Simulation modelling is an attractive tool for describing complex systems, and can be used to identify improvements to the processes involved. It is possible to use this technique in the area of radiation therapy planning with the intent of reducing process times and subsequent delays for patient treatment. In this particular system, reducing the variability and length of oncologist-related delays contributes most to improving the planning time.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vasile Dr ̆agan
2017-06-01
Full Text Available We investigate the problem for solving a discrete-time periodic gen- eralized Riccati equation with an indefinite sign of the quadratic term. A necessary condition for the existence of bounded and stabilizing solution of the discrete-time Riccati equation with an indefinite quadratic term is derived. The stabilizing solution is positive semidefinite and satisfies the introduced sign conditions. The proposed condition is illustrated via a numerical example.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schiøler, Henrik; Leth, John-Josef
2011-01-01
Results are given in [Yang et. al. 2009] regarding the overall stability of switched diffusion processes based on stability properties of separate processes combined through stochastic switching. This paper argues two main results to be empty, in that the presented hypotheses are logically...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2005-01-01
Some specific stochastic, jumping processes have been studied. They are defined in terms of the jump size distribution and the waiting time distribution which are mutually dependent. For the simplest case (the kangaroo process), the corresponding master equation has been completely solved and simple asymptotic expressions for the time-dependent probability distributions have been derived. A generalized version of that process, which takes into account the memory effects, has been proposed and a connection to transport processes, namely to the Boltzmann kinetic theory and diffusion, has been demonstrated. The same process, but defined on the circle instead of the axis, can possess the power law autocorrelation function; a simple formula for this function has been derived. Therefore, the process can serve as a useful model for the colored noises, in particular for the 1/f noise. It has been applied as a model of the driving force in the generalized Langevin equation, an impossible task with the standard kangaroo process. The equation has been solved by means of the Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting velocity and energy distributions exhibit extremely long memory about the initial conditions, despite an apparent fast equilibration of their comprehensive shape. The tails of both distributions fall faster than in the Maxwellian case
Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Saha, S.
We consider the problem of estimating stochastic volatility from stock data. The estimation of the volatility process of the Heston model is not in the usual framework of the filtering theory. Discretizing the continuous Heston model to the discrete-time one, we can derive the exact volatility
Tucker, C. J.; Garratt, M. W.
1977-01-01
A stochastic leaf radiation model based upon physical and physiological properties of dicot leaves has been developed. The model accurately predicts the absorbed, reflected, and transmitted radiation of normal incidence as a function of wavelength resulting from the leaf-irradiance interaction over the spectral interval of 0.40-2.50 micron. The leaf optical system has been represented as Markov process with a unique transition matrix at each 0.01-micron increment between 0.40 micron and 2.50 micron. Probabilities are calculated at every wavelength interval from leaf thickness, structure, pigment composition, and water content. Simulation results indicate that this approach gives accurate estimations of actual measured values for dicot leaf absorption, reflection, and transmission as a function of wavelength.
Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shilong Li
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigate the validity condition of this new model. We also discuss actuarial present values of several life annuities under this new interest model. Simulations are done to illustrate the theoretical results and the effect of parameters in interest model on actuarial present values is also analyzed.
Strategy Complexity of Finite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes and Simple Stochastic Games
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus; Chatterjee, Krishnendu
2012-01-01
Markov decision processes (MDPs) and simple stochastic games (SSGs) provide a rich mathematical framework to study many important problems related to probabilistic systems. MDPs and SSGs with finite-horizon objectives, where the goal is to maximize the probability to reach a target state in a given...... finite time, is a classical and well-studied problem. In this work we consider the strategy complexity of finite-horizon MDPs and SSGs. We show that for all ε > 0, the natural class of counter-based strategies require at most loglog(1 ϵ )+n+1 memory states, and memory of size Ω(loglog(1 ϵ )+n......) is required, for ε-optimality, where n is the number of states of the MDP (resp. SSG). Thus our bounds are asymptotically optimal. We then study the periodic property of optimal strategies, and show a sub-exponential lower bound on the period for optimal strategies....
Stochastic dynamical model of a growing citation network based on a self-exciting point process.
Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin
2012-08-31
We put under experimental scrutiny the preferential attachment model that is commonly accepted as a generating mechanism of the scale-free complex networks. To this end we chose a citation network of physics papers and traced the citation history of 40,195 papers published in one year. Contrary to common belief, we find that the citation dynamics of the individual papers follows the superlinear preferential attachment, with the exponent α=1.25-1.3. Moreover, we show that the citation process cannot be described as a memoryless Markov chain since there is a substantial correlation between the present and recent citation rates of a paper. Based on our findings we construct a stochastic growth model of the citation network, perform numerical simulations based on this model and achieve an excellent agreement with the measured citation distributions.
Just, Sarah; Toschkoff, Gregor; Funke, Adrian; Djuric, Dejan; Scharrer, Georg; Khinast, Johannes; Knop, Klaus; Kleinebudde, Peter
2013-03-01
Coating of solid dosage forms is an important unit operation in the pharmaceutical industry. In recent years, numerical simulations of drug manufacturing processes have been gaining interest as process analytical technology tools. The discrete element method (DEM) in particular is suitable to model tablet-coating processes. For the development of accurate simulations, information on the material properties of the tablets is required. In this study, the mechanical parameters Young's modulus, coefficient of restitution (CoR), and coefficients of friction (CoF) of gastrointestinal therapeutic systems (GITS) and of active-coated GITS were measured experimentally. The dynamic angle of repose of these tablets in a drum coater was investigated to revise the CoF. The resulting values were used as input data in DEM simulations to compare simulation and experiment. A mean value of Young's modulus of 31.9 MPa was determined by the uniaxial compression test. The CoR was found to be 0.78. For both tablet-steel and tablet-tablet friction, active-coated GITS showed a higher CoF compared with GITS. According to the values of the dynamic angle of repose, the CoF was adjusted to obtain consistent tablet motion in the simulation and in the experiment. On the basis of this experimental characterization, mechanical parameters are integrated into DEM simulation programs to perform numerical analysis of coating processes.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Araujo, Leonardo Rodrigues de [Instituto Federal do Espirito Santo, Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: leoaraujo@ifes.edu.br; Donatelli, Joao Luiz Marcon [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo (UFES), Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: joaoluiz@npd.ufes.br; Silva, Edmar Alino da Cruz [Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica (ITA/CTA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Azevedo, Joao Luiz F. [Instituto de Aeronautica e Espaco (CTA/IAE/ALA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)
2010-07-01
Thermal systems are essential in facilities such as thermoelectric plants, cogeneration plants, refrigeration systems and air conditioning, among others, in which much of the energy consumed by humanity is processed. In a world with finite natural sources of fuels and growing energy demand, issues related with thermal system design, such as cost estimative, design complexity, environmental protection and optimization are becoming increasingly important. Therefore the need to understand the mechanisms that degrade energy, improve energy sources use, reduce environmental impacts and also reduce project, operation and maintenance costs. In recent years, a consistent development of procedures and techniques for computational design of thermal systems has occurred. In this context, the fundamental objective of this study is a performance comparative analysis of structural and parametric optimization of a cogeneration system using stochastic methods: genetic algorithm and simulated annealing. This research work uses a superstructure, modelled in a process simulator, IPSEpro of SimTech, in which the appropriate design case studied options are included. Accordingly, the cogeneration system optimal configuration is determined as a consequence of the optimization process, restricted within the configuration options included in the superstructure. The optimization routines are written in MsExcel Visual Basic, in order to work perfectly coupled to the simulator process. At the end of the optimization process, the system optimal configuration, given the characteristics of each specific problem, should be defined. (author)
Papalexiou, Simon Michael
2018-05-01
Hydroclimatic processes come in all "shapes and sizes". They are characterized by different spatiotemporal correlation structures and probability distributions that can be continuous, mixed-type, discrete or even binary. Simulating such processes by reproducing precisely their marginal distribution and linear correlation structure, including features like intermittency, can greatly improve hydrological analysis and design. Traditionally, modelling schemes are case specific and typically attempt to preserve few statistical moments providing inadequate and potentially risky distribution approximations. Here, a single framework is proposed that unifies, extends, and improves a general-purpose modelling strategy, based on the assumption that any process can emerge by transforming a specific "parent" Gaussian process. A novel mathematical representation of this scheme, introducing parametric correlation transformation functions, enables straightforward estimation of the parent-Gaussian process yielding the target process after the marginal back transformation, while it provides a general description that supersedes previous specific parameterizations, offering a simple, fast and efficient simulation procedure for every stationary process at any spatiotemporal scale. This framework, also applicable for cyclostationary and multivariate modelling, is augmented with flexible parametric correlation structures that parsimoniously describe observed correlations. Real-world simulations of various hydroclimatic processes with different correlation structures and marginals, such as precipitation, river discharge, wind speed, humidity, extreme events per year, etc., as well as a multivariate example, highlight the flexibility, advantages, and complete generality of the method.
Koester, Martin; García, R Edwin; Thommes, Markus
2014-12-30
Spheronization is an important pharmaceutical manufacturing technique to produce spherical agglomerates of 0.5-2mm diameter. These pellets have a narrow size distribution and a spherical shape. During the spheronization process, the extruded cylindrical strands break in short cylinders and evolve from a cylindrical to a spherical state by deformation and attrition/agglomeration mechanisms. Using the discrete element method, an integrated modeling-experimental framework is presented, that captures the particle motion during the spheronization process. Simulations were directly compared and validated against particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments with monodisperse spherical and dry γ-Al2O3 particles. demonstrate a characteristic torus like flow pattern, with particle velocities about three times slower than the rotation speed of the friction plate. Five characteristic zones controlling the spheronization process are identified: Zone I, where particles undergo shear forces that favors attrition and contributes material to the agglomeration process; Zone II, where the static wall contributes to the mass exchange between particles; Zone III, where gravitational forces combined with particle motion induce particles to collide with the moving plate and re-enter Zone I; Zone IV, where a subpopulation of particles are ejected into the air when in contact with the friction plate structure; and Zone V where the low poloidal velocity favors a stagnant particle population and is entirely controlled by the batch size. These new insights in to the particle motion are leading to deeper process understanding, e.g., the effect of load and rotation speed to the pellet formation kinetics. This could be beneficial for the optimization of a manufacturing process as well as for the development of new formulations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Processing and study of the wear and friction behaviour of discrete ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Discrete functionally graded composites are the novel composites which have high potential in the brake friction material applications. In this paper, we have prepared discrete functional graded Cu/10%SiC/20%graphite(Gr)/10%boron nitride (h-BN) hybrid composites by the layer stacking compaction and pressure sintering ...
Lopopolo, Alessandro; Frank, Stefan L; van den Bosch, Antal; Willems, Roel M
2017-01-01
Language comprehension involves the simultaneous processing of information at the phonological, syntactic, and lexical level. We track these three distinct streams of information in the brain by using stochastic measures derived from computational language models to detect neural correlates of phoneme, part-of-speech, and word processing in an fMRI experiment. Probabilistic language models have proven to be useful tools for studying how language is processed as a sequence of symbols unfolding in time. Conditional probabilities between sequences of words are at the basis of probabilistic measures such as surprisal and perplexity which have been successfully used as predictors of several behavioural and neural correlates of sentence processing. Here we computed perplexity from sequences of words and their parts of speech, and their phonemic transcriptions. Brain activity time-locked to each word is regressed on the three model-derived measures. We observe that the brain keeps track of the statistical structure of lexical, syntactic and phonological information in distinct areas.
StochPy: A Comprehensive, User-Friendly Tool for Simulating Stochastic Biological Processes
T.R. Maarleveld (Timo); B.G. Olivier (Brett); F.J. Bruggeman (Frank)
2013-01-01
htmlabstractSingle-cell and single-molecule measurements indicate the importance of stochastic phenomena in cell biology. Stochasticity creates spontaneous differences in the copy numbers of key macromolecules and the timing of reaction events between genetically-identical cells. Mathematical models
Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models
Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael
2016-01-01
This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.
Hu, Jian Zhi [Richland, WA; Sears, Jr., Jesse A.; Hoyt, David W [Richland, WA; Wind, Robert A [Kennewick, WA
2009-05-19
Described are a "Discrete Magic Angle Turning" (DMAT) system, devices, and processes that combine advantages of both magic angle turning (MAT) and magic angle hopping (MAH) suitable, e.g., for in situ magnetic resonance spectroscopy and/or imaging. In an exemplary system, device, and process, samples are rotated in a clockwise direction followed by an anticlockwise direction of exactly the same amount. Rotation proceeds through an angle that is typically greater than about 240 degrees but less than or equal to about 360 degrees at constant speed for a time applicable to the evolution dimension. Back and forth rotation can be synchronized and repeated with a special radio frequency (RF) pulse sequence to produce an isotropic-anisotropic shift 2D correlation spectrum. The design permits tubes to be inserted into the sample container without introducing plumbing interferences, further allowing control over such conditions as temperature, pressure, flow conditions, and feed compositions, thus permitting true in-situ investigations to be carried out.
Measure of Uncertainty in Process Models Using Stochastic Petri Nets and Shannon Entropy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martin Ibl
2016-01-01
Full Text Available When modelling and analysing business processes, the main emphasis is usually put on model validity and accuracy, i.e., the model meets the formal specification and also models the relevant system. In recent years, a series of metrics has begun to develop, which allows the quantification of the specific properties of process models. These characteristics are, for instance, complexity, comprehensibility, cohesion, and uncertainty. This work is focused on defining a method that allows us to measure the uncertainty of a process model, which was modelled by using stochastic Petri nets (SPN. The principle of this method consists of mapping of all reachable marking of SPN into the continuous-time Markov chain and then calculating its stationary probabilities. The uncertainty is then measured as the entropy of the Markov chain (it is possible to calculate the uncertainty of the specific subset of places as well as of whole net. Alternatively, the uncertainty index is quantified as a percentage of the calculated entropy against maximum entropy (the resulting value is normalized to the interval <0,1>. The calculated entropy can also be used as a measure of the model complexity.
A customizable stochastic state point process filter (SSPPF) for neural spiking activity.
Xin, Yao; Li, Will X Y; Min, Biao; Han, Yan; Cheung, Ray C C
2013-01-01
Stochastic State Point Process Filter (SSPPF) is effective for adaptive signal processing. In particular, it has been successfully applied to neural signal coding/decoding in recent years. Recent work has proven its efficiency in non-parametric coefficients tracking in modeling of mammal nervous system. However, existing SSPPF has only been realized in commercial software platforms which limit their computational capability. In this paper, the first hardware architecture of SSPPF has been designed and successfully implemented on field-programmable gate array (FPGA), proving a more efficient means for coefficient tracking in a well-established generalized Laguerre-Volterra model for mammalian hippocampal spiking activity research. By exploring the intrinsic parallelism of the FPGA, the proposed architecture is able to process matrices or vectors with random size, and is efficiently scalable. Experimental result shows its superior performance comparing to the software implementation, while maintaining the numerical precision. This architecture can also be potentially utilized in the future hippocampal cognitive neural prosthesis design.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bouziane, T.
2004-04-01
The purpose of this work was to construct a Brownian motion with values in simplicial complexes with piecewise differential structure. After a martingale theory attempt, we constructed a family of continuous Markov processes with values in an admissible complex; we named every process of this family, isotropic transport process. We showed that the family of the isotropic processes contains a subsequence, which converged weakly to a measure; we named it the Wiener measure. Then, we constructed, thanks to the finite dimensional distributions of the Wiener measure a new continuous Markov process with values in an admissible complex: the Brownian motion. We finished with a geometric analysis of this Brownian motion, to determinate, under hypothesis on the complex, the recurrent or transient behavior of such process. (author)
A Stochastic Cobweb Dynamical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Serena Brianzoni
2008-01-01
_,__0__1, and the forward predictor with probability (1−, so that the expected price at time is a random variable and consequently the dynamics describing the price evolution in time is governed by a stochastic dynamical system. The dynamical system becomes a Markov process when the memory rate vanishes. In particular, we study the Markov chain in the cases of discrete and continuous time. Using a mixture of analytical tools and numerical methods, we show that, when prices take discrete values, the corresponding Markov chain is asymptotically stable. In the case with continuous prices and nonnecessarily zero memory rate, numerical evidence of bounded price oscillations is shown. The role of the memory rate is studied through numerical experiments, this study confirms the stabilizing effects of the presence of resistant memory.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Scott Ferrenberg
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the
Ferrenberg, Scott; Martinez, Alexander S; Faist, Akasha M
2016-01-01
Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species) and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers) arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community) and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community) and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity) among samples. Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the aboveground arthropod communities and vegetation
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in Ranking Non-Parametric Stochastic Rainfall and Streamflow Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masengo Ilunga
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP is used in the selection of categories of non-parametric stochastic models for hydrological data generation and its formulation is based on pairwise comparisons of models. These models or techniques are obtained from a recent study initiated by the Water Research Commission of South Africa (WRC and were compared predominantly based on their capability to extrapolate data beyond the range of historic hydrological data. The different categories of models involved in the selection process were: wavelet (A, reordering (B, K-nearest neighbor (C, kernel density (D and bootstrap (E. In the AHP formulation, criteria for the selection of techniques are: "ability for data to preserve historic characteristics", "ability to generate new hydrological data", "scope of applicability", "presence of negative data generated" and "user friendliness". The pairwise comparisons performed through AHP showed that the overall order of selection (ranking of models was D, C, A, B and C. The weights of these techniques were found to be 27.21%, 24.3 %, 22.15 %, 13.89 % and 11.80 % respectively. Hence, bootstrap category received the highest preference while nearest neighbor received the lowest preference when all selection criteria are taken into consideration.
Deterministic flows of order-parameters in stochastic processes of quantum Monte Carlo method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Inoue, Jun-ichi
2010-01-01
In terms of the stochastic process of quantum-mechanical version of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (the MCMC), we analytically derive macroscopically deterministic flow equations of order parameters such as spontaneous magnetization in infinite-range (d(= ∞)-dimensional) quantum spin systems. By means of the Trotter decomposition, we consider the transition probability of Glauber-type dynamics of microscopic states for the corresponding (d + 1)-dimensional classical system. Under the static approximation, differential equations with respect to macroscopic order parameters are explicitly obtained from the master equation that describes the microscopic-law. In the steady state, we show that the equations are identical to the saddle point equations for the equilibrium state of the same system. The equation for the dynamical Ising model is recovered in the classical limit. We also check the validity of the static approximation by making use of computer simulations for finite size systems and discuss several possible extensions of our approach to disordered spin systems for statistical-mechanical informatics. Especially, we shall use our procedure to evaluate the decoding process of Bayesian image restoration. With the assistance of the concept of dynamical replica theory (the DRT), we derive the zero-temperature flow equation of image restoration measure showing some 'non-monotonic' behaviour in its time evolution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Antonia A Paschali
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine whether exposure to human suffering is associated with negative changes in perceptions about personal health. We further examined the relation of possible health perception changes, to changes in five discrete emotions (i.e., fear, guilt, hostility/anger, and joviality, as a guide to understand the processes underlying health perception changes, provided that each emotion conveys information regarding triggering conditions. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: An experimental group (N = 47 was exposed to images of human affliction, whereas a control group (N = 47 was exposed to relaxing images. Participants in the experimental group reported more health anxiety and health value, as well as lower health-related optimism and internal health locus of control, in comparison to participants exposed to relaxing images. They also reported more fear, guilt, hostility and sadness, as well as less joviality. Changes in each health perception were related to changes in particular emotions. CONCLUSION: These findings imply that health perceptions are shaped in a constant dialogue with the representations about the broader world. Furthermore, it seems that the core of health perception changes lies in the acceptance that personal well-being is subject to several potential threats, as well as that people cannot fully control many of the factors the determine their own well-being.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Herbold, E. B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Walton, O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Homel, M. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2015-10-26
This document serves as a final report to a small effort where several improvements were added to a LLNL code GEODYN-L to develop Discrete Element Method (DEM) algorithms coupled to Lagrangian Finite Element (FE) solvers to investigate powder-bed formation problems for additive manufacturing. The results from these simulations will be assessed for inclusion as the initial conditions for Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS) simulations performed with ALE3D. The algorithms were written and performed on parallel computing platforms at LLNL. The total funding level was 3-4 weeks of an FTE split amongst two staff scientists and one post-doc. The DEM simulations emulated, as much as was feasible, the physical process of depositing a new layer of powder over a bed of existing powder. The DEM simulations utilized truncated size distributions spanning realistic size ranges with a size distribution profile consistent with realistic sample set. A minimum simulation sample size on the order of 40-particles square by 10-particles deep was utilized in these scoping studies in order to evaluate the potential effects of size segregation variation with distance displaced in front of a screed blade. A reasonable method for evaluating the problem was developed and validated. Several simulations were performed to show the viability of the approach. Future investigations will focus on running various simulations investigating powder particle sizing and screen geometries.
A discrete element based simulation framework to investigate particulate spray deposition processes
Mukherjee, Debanjan
2015-06-01
© 2015 Elsevier Inc. This work presents a computer simulation framework based on discrete element method to analyze manufacturing processes that comprise a loosely flowing stream of particles in a carrier fluid being deposited on a target surface. The individual particulate dynamics under the combined action of particle collisions, fluid-particle interactions, particle-surface contact and adhesive interactions is simulated, and aggregated to obtain global system behavior. A model for deposition which incorporates the effect of surface energy, impact velocity and particle size, is developed. The fluid-particle interaction is modeled using appropriate spray nozzle gas velocity distributions and a one-way coupling between the phases. It is found that the particle response times and the release velocity distribution of particles have a combined effect on inter-particle collisions during the flow along the spray. It is also found that resolution of the particulate collisions close to the target surface plays an important role in characterizing the trends in the deposit pattern. Analysis of the deposit pattern using metrics defined from the particle distribution on the target surface is provided to characterize the deposition efficiency, deposit size, and scatter due to collisions.
Parallel, but Dissociable, Processing in Discrete Corticostriatal Inputs Encodes Skill Learning.
Kupferschmidt, David A; Juczewski, Konrad; Cui, Guohong; Johnson, Kari A; Lovinger, David M
2017-10-11
Changes in cortical and striatal function underlie the transition from novel actions to refined motor skills. How discrete, anatomically defined corticostriatal projections function in vivo to encode skill learning remains unclear. Using novel fiber photometry approaches to assess real-time activity of associative inputs from medial prefrontal cortex to dorsomedial striatum and sensorimotor inputs from motor cortex to dorsolateral striatum, we show that associative and sensorimotor inputs co-engage early in action learning and disengage in a dissociable manner as actions are refined. Disengagement of associative, but not sensorimotor, inputs predicts individual differences in subsequent skill learning. Divergent somatic and presynaptic engagement in both projections during early action learning suggests potential learning-related in vivo modulation of presynaptic corticostriatal function. These findings reveal parallel processing within associative and sensorimotor circuits that challenges and refines existing views of corticostriatal function and expose neuronal projection- and compartment-specific activity dynamics that encode and predict action learning. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Martinent, Guillaume; Ferrand, Claude
2009-06-01
The purpose of this study was to explore the directional interpretation process of discrete emotions experienced by table tennis players during competitive matches by adopting a naturalistic qualitative video-assisted approach. Thirty self-confrontation interviews were conducted with 11 national table tennis players (2 or 3 matches per participants). Nine discrete emotions were identified through the inductive analyses of the participants' transcriptions: anger, anxiety, discouragement, disappointment, disgust, joy, serenity, relief, and hope. Inductive analyses revealed the emergence of 4 categories and 13 themes among the 9 discrete emotions: positive direction (increased concentration, increased motivation, increased confidence, positive sensations, and adaptive behaviors), negative direction (decreased concentration, decreased motivation, too confident, decreased confidence, negative sensations, and maladaptive behaviors), neutral direction (take more risk and take less risk), and no perceived influence on own performance. Results are discussed in terms of current research on directional interpretation and emotions in sport.
Mixed effects in stochastic differential equation models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Susanne; De Gaetano, Andrea
2005-01-01
maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes......maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Linshan; Zhang Zhe; Wang Yangfan
2008-01-01
Some criteria for the global stochastic exponential stability of the delayed reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters are presented. The jumping parameters considered here are generated from a continuous-time discrete-state homogeneous Markov process, which are governed by a Markov process with discrete and finite state space. By employing a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to establish some easy-to-test criteria of global exponential stability in the mean square for the stochastic neural networks. The criteria are computationally efficient, since they are in the forms of some linear matrix inequalities
Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems
Kulkarni, V G
2011-01-01
This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akira Ikuta
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In real sound environment system, a specific signal shows various types of probability distribution, and the observation data are usually contaminated by external noise (e.g., background noise of non-Gaussian distribution type. Furthermore, there potentially exist various nonlinear correlations in addition to the linear correlation between input and output time series. Consequently, often the system input and output relationship in the real phenomenon cannot be represented by a simple model using only the linear correlation and lower order statistics. In this study, complex sound environment systems difficult to analyze by using usual structural method are considered. By introducing an estimation method of the system parameters reflecting correlation information for conditional probability distribution under existence of the external noise, a prediction method of output response probability for sound environment systems is theoretically proposed in a suitable form for the additive property of energy variable and the evaluation in decibel scale. The effectiveness of the proposed stochastic signal processing method is experimentally confirmed by applying it to the observed data in sound environment systems.
Stability of Event Synchronisation in Distributed Discrete Event Simulation
Kumar, Anurag; Shorey, Rajeev
1994-01-01
This paper is concerned with the behaviour of message queues in distributed discrete event simulafors. We view a logical process in a distributed simulation as comprising a message sequencer with associah-d message queues, followed by an event processor. We show that, with standard stochastic assumptions for message arrival and time-stamp processes, the message queues are unstable for conservative sequencing, and for conservative sequencing with maximum lookah,ead and hence for optimistic res...
The measurement problem on classical diffusion process: inverse method on stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bigerelle, M.; Iost, A.
2004-01-01
In a high number of diffusive systems, measures are processed to calculate material parameters such as diffusion coefficients, or to verify the accuracy of mathematical models. However, the precision of the parameter determination or of the model relevance depends on the location of the measure itself. The aim of this paper is first to analyse, for a mono-dimensional system, the precision of the measure in relation with its location by an inverse problem algorithm and secondly to examine the physical meaning of the results. Statistical mechanic considerations show that, passing over a time-distance criterion, measurement becomes uncertain whatever the initial conditions. The criterion proves that this chaotic mode is related to the production of anti-entropy at a mesoscopique scale that is in violation to quantum theory about measurement
Huang, Tsung-Yu; Tseng, Ching-Wei; Yeh, Ting-Tso; Yeh, Tien-Tien; Luo, Chih-Wei; Akalin, Tahsin; Yen, Ta-Jen
2015-01-01
We design and demonstrate a flexible, ultrathin and double-sided metamaterial perfect absorber (MPA) at 2.39 terahertz (THz), which enables excellent light absorbance under incidences from two opposite sides. Herein, the MPA is fabricated on a ?0/10.1-thick flexible polyethylene terephthalate substrate of ?r?=?2.75???(1?+?0.12i), sandwiched by two identical randomized metallic patterns by our stochastic design process. Such an MPA provides tailored permittivity and permeability to approach th...
Information and (co)variances in discrete evolutionary genetics involving solely selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huillet, Thierry E
2009-01-01
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we introduce the general formalism of evolutionary genetics dynamics involving fitnesses, under both the deterministic and stochastic setups, and chiefly in discrete time. In the process, we particularize it to a one-parameter model where only a selection parameter is unknown. Then and in a parallel manner, we discuss the problems of estimation of the selection parameter on the basis of a single-generation frequency distribution shift under both deterministic and stochastic evolutionary dynamics. In the stochastics, we consider both the celebrated Wright–Fisher and Moran models
van der Meulen, F.H.; Schauer, M.R.
2017-01-01
Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing data problem where the diffusion bridges in between
Meulen, van der F.; Schauer, M.
2017-01-01
Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing data problem where the diffusion bridges in between
Stochastic modeling of catalytic processes in nanoporous materials: Beyond mean-field approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garcia, Andres [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
2017-08-05
Transport and reaction in zeolites and other porous materials, such as mesoporous silica particles, has been a focus of interest in recent years. This is in part due to the possibility of anomalous transport effects (e.g. single-file diffusion) and its impact in the reaction yield in catalytic processes. Computational simulations are often used to study these complex nonequilibrium systems. Computer simulations using Molecular Dynamics (MD) techniques are prohibitive, so instead coarse grained one-dimensional models with the aid of Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations are used. Both techniques can be computationally expensive, both time and resource wise. These coarse-grained systems can be exactly described by a set of coupled stochastic master equations, that describe the reaction-diffusion kinetics of the system. The equations can be written exactly, however, coupling between the equations and terms within the equations make it impossible to solve them exactly; approximations must be made. One of the most common methods to obtain approximate solutions is to use Mean Field (MF) theory. MF treatments yield reasonable results at high ratios of reaction rate k to hop rate h of the particles, but fail completely at low k=h due to the over-estimation of fluxes of particles within the pore. We develop a method to estimate fluxes and intrapore diffusivity in simple one- dimensional reaction-diffusion models at high and low k=h, where the pores are coupled to an equilibrated three-dimensional fluid. We thus successfully describe analytically these simple reaction-diffusion one-dimensional systems. Extensions to models considering behavior with long range steric interactions and wider pores require determination of multiple boundary conditions. We give a prescription to estimate the required parameters for these simulations. For one dimensional systems, if single-file diffusion is relaxed, additional parameters to describe particle exchange have to be introduced. We use
Tang, T B; Chen, H; Murray, A F
2004-02-01
An adaptive stochastic classifier based on a simple, novel neural architecture--the Continuous Restricted Boltzmann Machine (CRBM) is demonstrated. Together with sensors and signal conditioning circuits, the classifier is capable of measuring and classifying (with high accuracy) the H+ ion concentration, in the presence of both random noise and sensor drift. Training on-line, the stochastic classifier is able to overcome significant drift of real incomplete sensor data dynamically. As analogue hardware, this signal-level sensor fusion scheme is therefore suitable for real-time analysis in a miniaturised multisensor microsystem such as a Lab-in-a-Pill (LIAP).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Chumak
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The author substantiates that only methodological training systems of mathematical disciplines with implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT can meet the requirements of modern educational paradigm and make possible to increase the educational efficiency. Due to this fact, the necessity of developing the methodology of theory of probability and stochastic processes computer-based learning for pre-service engineers is underlined in the paper. The results of the experimental study for analysis of the efficiency of methodological system of theory of probability and stochastic processes computer-based learning for pre-service engineers are shown. The analysis includes three main stages: ascertaining, searching and forming. The key criteria of the efficiency of designed methodological system are the level of probabilistic and stochastic skills of students and their learning motivation. The effect of implementing the methodological system of probability theory and stochastic processes computer-based learning on the level of students’ IT literacy is shown in the paper. The expanding of the range of objectives of ICT applying by students is described by author. The level of formation of students’ learning motivation on the ascertaining and forming stages of the experiment is analyzed. The level of intrinsic learning motivation for pre-service engineers is defined on these stages of the experiment. For this purpose, the methodology of testing the students’ learning motivation in the chosen specialty is presented in the paper. The increasing of intrinsic learning motivation of the experimental group students (E group against the control group students (C group is demonstrated.
Adaptive hybrid simulations for multiscale stochastic reaction networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hepp, Benjamin; Gupta, Ankit; Khammash, Mustafa
2015-01-01
The probability distribution describing the state of a Stochastic Reaction Network (SRN) evolves according to the Chemical Master Equation (CME). It is common to estimate its solution using Monte Carlo methods such as the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA). In many cases, these simulations can take an impractical amount of computational time. Therefore, many methods have been developed that approximate sample paths of the underlying stochastic process and estimate the solution of the CME. A prominent class of these methods include hybrid methods that partition the set of species and the set of reactions into discrete and continuous subsets. Such a partition separates the dynamics into a discrete and a continuous part. Simulating such a stochastic process can be computationally much easier than simulating the exact discrete stochastic process with SSA. Moreover, the quasi-stationary assumption to approximate the dynamics of fast subnetworks can be applied for certain classes of networks. However, as the dynamics of a SRN evolves, these partitions may have to be adapted during the simulation. We develop a hybrid method that approximates the solution of a CME by automatically partitioning the reactions and species sets into discrete and continuous components and applying the quasi-stationary assumption on identifiable fast subnetworks. Our method does not require any user intervention and it adapts to exploit the changing timescale separation between reactions and/or changing magnitudes of copy-numbers of constituent species. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method by considering examples from systems biology and showing that very good approximations to the exact probability distributions can be achieved in significantly less computational time. This is especially the case for systems with oscillatory dynamics, where the system dynamics change considerably throughout the time-period of interest
Ding, Shaojie; Qian, Min; Qian, Hong; Zhang, Xuejuan
2016-12-01
The stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model is one of the best-known examples of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), in which the electrical potential across a cell membrane, V(t), is coupled with a mesoscopic Markov jump process representing the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels embedded in the membrane. The rates of the channel kinetics, in turn, are voltage-dependent. Due to this interdependence, an accurate and efficient sampling of the time evolution of the hybrid stochastic systems has been challenging. The current exact simulation methods require solving a voltage-dependent hitting time problem for multiple path-dependent intensity functions with random thresholds. This paper proposes a simulation algorithm that approximates an alternative representation of the exact solution by fitting the log-survival function of the inter-jump dwell time, H(t), with a piecewise linear one. The latter uses interpolation points that are chosen according to the time evolution of the H(t), as the numerical solution to the coupled ordinary differential equations of V(t) and H(t). This computational method can be applied to all PDMPs. Pathwise convergence of the approximated sample trajectories to the exact solution is proven, and error estimates are provided. Comparison with a previous algorithm that is based on piecewise constant approximation is also presented.
Walker, Martin; Hall, Andrew; Basáñez, María-Gloria
2010-10-01
The importance of the mode of acquisition of infectious stages of directly-transmitted parasitic helminths has been acknowledged in population dynamics models; hosts may acquire eggs/larvae singly in a "trickle" type manner or in "clumps". Such models have shown that the mode of acquisition influences the distribution and dynamics of parasite loads, the stability of host-parasite systems and the rate of emergence of anthelmintic resistance, yet very few field studies have allowed these questions to be explored with empirical data. We have analysed individual worm weight data for the parasitic roundworm of humans, Ascaris lumbricoides, collected from a three-round chemo-expulsion study in Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the aim of discerning whether a trickle or a clumped infection process predominates. We found that hosts tend to harbour female worms of a similar weight, indicative of a clumped infection process, but acknowledged that unmeasured host heterogeneities (random effects) could not be completely excluded as a cause. Here, we complement our previous statistical analyses using a stochastic infection model to simulate sizes of individual A. lumbricoides infecting a population of humans. We use the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) as a quantitative measure of similarity among simulated worm sizes and explore the behaviour of this statistic under assumptions corresponding to trickle or clumped infections and unmeasured host heterogeneities. We confirm that both mechanisms are capable of generating aggregates of similar-sized worms, but that the particular pattern of ICCs described pre- and post-anthelmintic treatment in the data is more consistent with aggregation generated by clumped infections than by host heterogeneities alone. This provides support to the notion that worms may be acquired in clumps. We discuss our results in terms of the population biology of A. lumbricoides and highlight the significance of our modelling approach for the study of the
Hybrid stochastic simplifications for multiscale gene networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Debussche Arnaud
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic simulation of gene networks by Markov processes has important applications in molecular biology. The complexity of exact simulation algorithms scales with the number of discrete jumps to be performed. Approximate schemes reduce the computational time by reducing the number of simulated discrete events. Also, answering important questions about the relation between network topology and intrinsic noise generation and propagation should be based on general mathematical results. These general results are difficult to obtain for exact models. Results We propose a unified framework for hybrid simplifications of Markov models of multiscale stochastic gene networks dynamics. We discuss several possible hybrid simplifications, and provide algorithms to obtain them from pure jump processes. In hybrid simplifications, some components are discrete and evolve by jumps, while other components are continuous. Hybrid simplifications are obtained by partial Kramers-Moyal expansion 123 which is equivalent to the application of the central limit theorem to a sub-model. By averaging and variable aggregation we drastically reduce simulation time and eliminate non-critical reactions. Hybrid and averaged simplifications can be used for more effective simulation algorithms and for obtaining general design principles relating noise to topology and time scales. The simplified models reproduce with good accuracy the stochastic properties of the gene networks, including waiting times in intermittence phenomena, fluctuation amplitudes and stationary distributions. The methods are illustrated on several gene network examples. Conclusion Hybrid simplifications can be used for onion-like (multi-layered approaches to multi-scale biochemical systems, in which various descriptions are used at various scales. Sets of discrete and continuous variables are treated with different methods and are coupled together in a physically justified approach.
Stochastic Greybox Modeling for Control of an Alternating Activated Sludge Process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halvgaard, Rasmus Fogtmann; Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, M.
We present a stochastic greybox model of a BioDenitro WWTP that can be used for short time horizon Model Predictive Control. The model is based on a simpliﬁed ASM1 model and takes model uncertainty in to account. It estimates unmeasured state variables in the system, e.g. the inlet concentration...
Stochastic quantization and supersymmetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirschner, R.
1984-04-01
In the last years interest in stochastic quantization has increased. The method of quantization by stochastic relaxation processes has been proposed by Parisi and Wu, inspired by the extensive application of Monte Carlo simulations to quantum systems. Starting with the classical equations of motion of the system (field theory) and adding random force terms - the random force obeys a Gaussian distribution (white noise) - stochastic differential equations are obtained, in this context called Langevin equations, which are a central object in the theory of stochastic processes. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Soltani
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Inside individual cells, expression of genes is inherently stochastic and manifests as cell-to-cell variability or noise in protein copy numbers. Since proteins half-lives can be comparable to the cell-cycle length, randomness in cell-division times generates additional intercellular variability in protein levels. Moreover, as many mRNA/protein species are expressed at low-copy numbers, errors incurred in partitioning of molecules between two daughter cells are significant. We derive analytical formulas for the total noise in protein levels when the cell-cycle duration follows a general class of probability distributions. Using a novel hybrid approach the total noise is decomposed into components arising from i stochastic expression; ii partitioning errors at the time of cell division and iii random cell-division events. These formulas reveal that random cell-division times not only generate additional extrinsic noise, but also critically affect the mean protein copy numbers and intrinsic noise components. Counter intuitively, in some parameter regimes, noise in protein levels can decrease as cell-division times become more stochastic. Computations are extended to consider genome duplication, where transcription rate is increased at a random point in the cell cycle. We systematically investigate how the timing of genome duplication influences different protein noise components. Intriguingly, results show that noise contribution from stochastic expression is minimized at an optimal genome-duplication time. Our theoretical results motivate new experimental methods for decomposing protein noise levels from synchronized and asynchronized single-cell expression data. Characterizing the contributions of individual noise mechanisms will lead to precise estimates of gene expression parameters and techniques for altering stochasticity to change phenotype of individual cells.
Eichhorn, Ralf; Aurell, Erik
2014-04-01
theory for small deviations from equilibrium, in which a general framework is constructed from the analysis of non-equilibrium states close to equilibrium. In a next step, Prigogine and others developed linear irreversible thermodynamics, which establishes relations between transport coefficients and entropy production on a phenomenological level in terms of thermodynamic forces and fluxes. However, beyond the realm of linear response no general theoretical results were available for quite a long time. This situation has changed drastically over the last 20 years with the development of stochastic thermodynamics, revealing that the range of validity of thermodynamic statements can indeed be extended deep into the non-equilibrium regime. Early developments in that direction trace back to the observations of symmetry relations between the probabilities for entropy production and entropy annihilation in non-equilibrium steady states [5-8] (nowadays categorized in the class of so-called detailed fluctuation theorems), and the derivations of the Bochkov-Kuzovlev [9, 10] and Jarzynski relations [11] (which are now classified as so-called integral fluctuation theorems). Apart from its fundamental theoretical interest, the developments in stochastic thermodynamics have experienced an additional boost from the recent experimental progress in fabricating, manipulating, controlling and observing systems on the micro- and nano-scale. These advances are not only of formidable use for probing and monitoring biological processes on the cellular, sub-cellular and molecular level, but even include the realization of a microscopic thermodynamic heat engine [12] or the experimental verification of Landauer's principle in a colloidal system [13]. The scientific program Stochastic Thermodynamics held between 4 and 15 March 2013, and hosted by The Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita), was attended by more than 50 scientists from the Nordic countries and elsewhere, amongst them
Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems
Bujorianu, Luminita Manuela
2012-01-01
Stochastic reachability analysis (SRA) is a method of analyzing the behavior of control systems which mix discrete and continuous dynamics. For probabilistic discrete systems it has been shown to be a practical verification method but for stochastic hybrid systems it can be rather more. As a verification technique SRA can assess the safety and performance of, for example, autonomous systems, robot and aircraft path planning and multi-agent coordination but it can also be used for the adaptive control of such systems. Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems is a self-contained and accessible introduction to this novel topic in the analysis and development of stochastic hybrid systems. Beginning with the relevant aspects of Markov models and introducing stochastic hybrid systems, the book then moves on to coverage of reachability analysis for stochastic hybrid systems. Following this build up, the core of the text first formally defines the concept of reachability in the stochastic framework and then...
Formal Abstractions for Automated Verification and Synthesis of Stochastic Systems
Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani, S.
2014-01-01
Stochastic hybrid systems involve the coupling of discrete, continuous, and probabilistic phenomena, in which the composition of continuous and discrete variables captures the behavior of physical systems interacting with digital, computational devices. Because of their versatility and generality,
Horowitz, Jordan M
2015-07-28
The stochastic thermodynamics of a dilute, well-stirred mixture of chemically reacting species is built on the stochastic trajectories of reaction events obtained from the chemical master equation. However, when the molecular populations are large, the discrete chemical master equation can be approximated with a continuous diffusion process, like the chemical Langevin equation or low noise approximation. In this paper, we investigate to what extent these diffusion approximations inherit the stochastic thermodynamics of the chemical master equation. We find that a stochastic-thermodynamic description is only valid at a detailed-balanced, equilibrium steady state. Away from equilibrium, where there is no consistent stochastic thermodynamics, we show that one can still use the diffusive solutions to approximate the underlying thermodynamics of the chemical master equation.
Stochastic Finite Elements in Reliability-Based Structural Optimization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.
1995-01-01
Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect to optimi......Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect...... to optimization variables can be performed. A computer implementation is described and an illustrative example is given....
Stochastic Finite Elements in Reliability-Based Structural Optimization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.
Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect to optimi......Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect...
Parametric inference for stochastic differential equations: a smooth and match approach
Gugushvili, S.; Spreij, P.
2012-01-01
We study the problem of parameter estimation for a univariate discretely observed ergodic diffusion process given as a solution to a stochastic differential equation. The estimation procedure we propose consists of two steps. In the first step, which is referred to as a smoothing step, we smooth the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ching-Hua Yeh
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Based on an online discrete choice experiment (DCE this study investigates the relative importance of food label information (country of origin, production methods, chemical residue testing (CRT and price for Taiwanese consumers’ in their purchase of sweet peppers. Results show that respondents focus mostly on the COO labeling during their sweet-pepper shopping, followed by price. Information concerning CRT results and production methods are of less importance. Our findings also indicate that interaction between attributes matter and that preference for attribute levels differs depending on socioeconomic characteristics.
Ngo, Tri Dat; Fourno, André; Noetinger, Benoit
2017-11-01
Most industrial and field studies of transport processes in Discrete Fracture Networks (DFNs) involve strong simplifying assumptions, especially at the meshing stage. High-accuracy simulations are therefore required for validating these simplified models and their domain of validity. The present paper proposes an efficient workflow based on open-source software to obtain transport simulations. High-quality computational meshes for DFNs are first generated using the conforming meshing approach FraC. Then, a tracer transport model implemented in the open-source code DuMux is used for simulating tracer transport driven by the advection-dispersion equation. We adopt the box method, a vertex-centered finite volume scheme for spatial discretization, which ensures concentration continuity and mass conservation at intersections between fractures. Numerical results on simple networks for validation purposes and on complex realistic DFNs are presented. An a-posteriori convergence study of the discretization method shows an order of convergence O(h) for tracer concentration with h the mesh size.
Stochastic processes in climate modeling: from Lorenz to the El-Niño recharge oscillator and beyond
Ghil, M.; Chekroun, M. D.; Simonnet, E.
2009-04-01
In the past few years, much of the climate community's work has gone toward building highly detailed, IPCC-class general circulation models (GCMs) capable of simulating climate change. In this context, subgrid-scale physics has increasingly been modeled using stochastic processes, but the broader consequences of this approach have not yet been sufficiently explored. Stochastic subgrid-scale parametrizations have substantial non-local effects on the low-frequency dynamics itself. Moreover, due to the random forcing present in these parametrizations, traditional dynamical systems concepts — e.g., strange attractors and deterministic bifurcations — are no longer appropriate. In this talk, we present and apply mathematical concepts and tools developed by L. Arnold and his Bremen school during the last two decades. These tools have not been widely exploited so far in climate research, although they offer powerful theoretical and numerical ways of investigating stochastic models. More specifically, we use random dynamical systems (RDS) theory to analyze the stochastic dynamics of climate models. To illustrate our approach, we consider at first simple conceptual models. The first example is the well-known 3-variable Lorenz (1963) model, to which we add multiplicative noise. We show how to obtain a full description of the resulting stochastic dynamics by computing this model's random attractor and its associated invariant measure. The second example is Timmermann and Jin's (GRL, 2002) nonlinear recharge-discharge model of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a model that captures several essential features of ENSO physics. A multiplicative noise term is added to this TJ model to represent wind bursts. Numerical simulations of the modified TJ model's random attractor show that Smale horseshoes are excited by the multiplicative noise, even for a parameter regime in which a Hopf bifurcation occurs in the deterministic system; such intricate structures only arise in
Regular and stochastic acceleration of electrons in the surfatron configuration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mendonca, J.T. [Inst. Superior Tecnico, Lisboa (Portugal). Centro de Electrodinamica
1996-11-01
We present here a theoretical approach to the problem of electron acceleration using the surfatron configuration. We show first how the acceleration process can be described with the help of a perturbation technique. Secondly, we discuss the transition from a regular to a stochastic acceleration regime, making use of the results of Hamiltonian chaos. Finally, we reduce the particle dynamics to a discrete map, generalizing the Karney map to the relativistic domain. (orig.).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuang Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We study the pricing of American options in an incomplete market in which the dynamics of the underlying risky asset is driven by a jump diffusion process with stochastic volatility. By employing a risk-minimization criterion, we obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and consequently a linear complementarity problem (LCP for American option price. An iterative method is then established to solve the LCP problem for American put option price. Our numerical results show that the model and numerical scheme are robust in capturing the feature of incomplete finance market, particularly the influence of market volatility on the price of American options.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Colombino, A.; Mosiello, R.; Norelli, F.; Jorio, V.M.; Pacilio, N.
1975-01-01
A nuclear system kinetics is formulated according to a stochastic approach. The detailed probability balance equations are written for the probability of finding the mixed population of neutrons and detected neutrons, i.e. detectrons, at a given level for a given instant of time. Equations are integrated in search of a probability profile: a series of cases is analyzed through a progressive criterium. It tends to take into account an increasing number of physical processes within the chosen model. The most important contribution is that solutions interpret analytically experimental conditions of equilibrium (moise analysis) and non equilibrium (pulsed neutron measurements, source drop technique, start up procedures)
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Záležák, Tomáš; Svoboda, Jiří; Dlouhý, Antonín
2017-01-01
Roč. 97, OCT (2017), s. 1-23 ISSN 0749-6419 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-22834S; GA ČR(CZ) GA202/09/2073; GA ČR(CZ) GD106/09/H035; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0214; GA MŠk OC 162 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 309916 - Z-ULTRA Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : 3D discrete dislocation dynamics * Dislocations * Strengthening mechanisms * Low angle grain boundaries * Particulate reinforced material Subject RIV: JI - Composite Materials OBOR OECD: Composites (including laminates, reinforced plastics, cermets, combined natural and synthetic fibre fabrics Impact factor: 5.702, year: 2016
Effluent trading in river systems through stochastic decision-making process: a case study.
Zolfagharipoor, Mohammad Amin; Ahmadi, Azadeh
2017-09-01
The objective of this paper is to provide an efficient framework for effluent trading in river systems. The proposed framework consists of two pessimistic and optimistic decision-making models to increase the executability of river water quality trading programs. The models used for this purpose are (1) stochastic fallback bargaining (SFB) to reach an agreement among wastewater dischargers and (2) stochastic multi-criteria decision-making (SMCDM) to determine the optimal treatment strategy. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to incorporate the uncertainty into analysis. This uncertainty arises from stochastic nature and the errors in the calculation of wastewater treatment costs. The results of river water quality simulation model are used as the inputs of models. The proposed models are used in a case study on the Zarjoub River in northern Iran to determine the best solution for the pollution load allocation. The best treatment alternatives selected by each model are imported, as the initial pollution discharge permits, into an optimization model developed for trading of pollution discharge permits among pollutant sources. The results show that the SFB-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 14,834 while providing a relative consensus among pollutant sources. Meanwhile, the SMCDM-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 218,852, but it is less acceptable by pollutant sources. Therefore, it appears that giving due attention to stability, or in other words acceptability of pollution trading programs for all pollutant sources, is an essential element of their success.
The remarkable discreteness of being
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Life is a discrete, stochastic phenomenon: for a biological organism, the time of the two most important events of its life (reproduction and death) is random and these events change the number of individuals of the species by single units. These facts can have surprising, counterintuitive consequences. I review here three ...
A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel Waema Mbogo
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.
Streamer inception from hydrometeors as a stochastic process with a particle-based model
Rutjes, Casper; Dubinova, Anna; Ebert, Ute; Teunissen, Jannis; Buitink, Stijn; Scholten, Olaf; Trihn, Gia
2017-04-01
In thunderstorms, streamers (as precursors for lightning leaders) can be initiated from hydrometeors (droplets, graupel, ice needles, etc.) which enhance the thundercloud electric field to values above electric breakdown; and initial electrons may come from extensive air showers [1]. Typically, streamer inception from hydrometeors is theoretically studied with deterministic fluid simulations (i.e. drift-diffusion-reaction coupled with Poisson), see [1, 2, 3] and references therein. However, electrons will only multiply in the area above breakdown, which is of the order of a cubic millimeter for hydrometeors of sub-centimeter scale. Initial electron densities, even in extreme extensive air shower events, do not exceed 10 per cubic millimeter. Hence only individual electron avalanches - with their intrinsically random nature - are entering the breakdown area sequentially. On these scales, a deterministic fluid description is thus not valid. Therefore, we developed a new stochastic particle-based model to study the behavior of the system described above, to calculate the probability of streamer inception, for given hydrometeor, electric field and initial electron density. Results show that the discharge starts with great jitter and usually off the symmetry axis, demanding stochastic approach in full 3D for streamer inception in realistic thunderstorm conditions. The developed software will be made publically available as an open source project. [1] Dubinova et al. 2015. Phys. Rev. Lett. 115(1), 015002. [2] Liu et al. 2012. Phys. Rev. Lett. 109(2), 025002. [3] Babich et al. 2016. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 6393-6403.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ganesh, M.; Hawkins, S.C.
2013-01-01
We consider absorption and scattering of acoustic waves from uncertain configurations comprising multiple two dimensional bodies with various material properties (sound-soft, sound-hard, absorbing and penetrable) and develop tools to address the problem of quantifying uncertainties in the acoustic cross sections of the configurations. The uncertainty arises because the locations and orientations of the particles in the configurations are described through random variables, and statistical moments of the far-fields induced by the stochastic configurations facilitate quantification of the uncertainty. We develop an efficient algorithm, based on a hybrid of the stochastic pseudospectral discretization (to truncate the infinite dimensional stochastic process) and an efficient stable truncated version of Waterman's T-matrix approach (for cost effective realization at each multiple particle configuration corresponding to the pseudospectral quadrature points) to simulate the statistical properties of the stochastic model. We demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm for configurations with non-smooth and non-convex bodies with distinct material properties, and random locations and orientations with normal and log-normal distributions. -- Highlights: ► Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic multiple scattering models is considered. ► A novel hybrid algorithm combining deterministic and stochastic methods is developed. ► An exponentially accurate stable a priori estimate based T-matrix method is used. ► The stochastic approximation is a spectrally accurate discrete polynomial chaos method. ► Multiple stochastic particle simulations highlight efficiency of the UQ algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zwingelstein, Gilles; Thabet, Gabriel.
1977-01-01
Control algorithms for components of nuclear power plants are currently based on external diagnostic methods. Modeling and identification techniques for autoregressive moving average models (ARMA) for stochastic processes are described. The identified models provide a means of estimating the power spectral density with improved accuracy and computer time compared with the classical methods. They are particularly will suited for on-line estimation of the power spectral density. The observable stochastic process y (t) is modeled assuming that it is the output of a linear filter driven by Gaussian while noise w (t). Two identification schemes were tested to find the orders m and n of the ARMA (m,n) models and to estimate the parameters of the recursion equation relating the input and output signals. The first scheme consists in transforming the ARMA model to an autoregressive model. The parameters of this AR model are obtained using least squares estimation techniques. The second scheme consists in finding the parameters of the ARMA by nonlinear programming techniques. The power spectral density of y(t) is instantaneously deduced from these ARMA models [fr
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge Barrientos
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The introduction of non-conventional energy sources (NCES to industrial processes is a viable alternative to reducing the energy consumed from the grid. However, a robust coordination of the local energy resources with the power imported from the distribution grid is still an open issue, especially in countries that do not allow selling energy surpluses to the main grid. In this paper, we propose a stochastic-programming-based energy management system (EMS focused on self-consumption that provides robustness to both sudden NCES or load variations, while preventing power injection to the main grid. The approach is based on a finite number of scenarios that combines a deterministic structure based on spectral analysis and a stochastic model that represents variability. The parameters to generate these scenarios are updated when new information arrives. We tested the proposed approach with data from a copper extraction mining process. It was compared to a traditional EMS with perfect prediction, i.e., a best case scenario. Test results show that the proposed EMS is comparable to the EMS with perfect prediction in terms of energy imported from the grid (slightly higher, but with less power changes in the distribution side and enhanced dynamic response to transients of wind power and load. This improvement is achieved with a non-significant computational time overload.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stentoft, Peter Alexander; Munk-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen
2017-01-01
In the alternating activated sludge process with rule-based control, online N-measurements are of great importance for maintaining good control. These measurements can be delayed due to sensor processing time, turbulence at the location in the aeration tank where the sensor is placed, etc....... The measurements may also be temporarily unavailable because of recalibration, communication faults or other errors. Here we present a method that handles such delay and missing observations. The model is based on zero order hold stochastic differential equations which use binary signals for influent flow...... and aeration to determine the state of the alternating process. It also uses measured ammonium and nitrate concentrations, which are shifted to account for delay. The method is developed and tested with data from a WWTP located in Kolding, Denmark. Results indicate that even though the model is simple...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stavrakakis, G.; Lucia, A.C.; Solomos, G. (Commission of the European Communities, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre)
1990-01-01
The two computer codes COVASTOL and RELIEF, developed for the modeling of cumulative damage processes in the framework of probabilistic structural reliability, are compared. They are based respectively on the randomisation of a differential crack growth law and on the theory of discrete Markov processes. The codes are applied for fatigue crack growth predictions using two sets of data of crack propagation curves from specimens. The results are critically analyzed and an extensive discussion follows on the merits and limitations of each code. Their transferability for the reliability assessment of real structures is investigated. (author).
Hu, Mengsu; Rutqvist, Jonny; Wang, Yuan
2017-04-01
In this study, a numerical manifold method (NMM) model was developed for fully coupled analysis of hydro-mechanical (HM) processes in porous rock masses with discrete fractures. Using an NMM two-cover-mesh system of mathematical and physical covers, fractures are conveniently discretized by dividing the mathematical cover along fracture traces to physical cover, resulting in a discontinuous model on a non-conforming mesh. In this model, discrete fracture deformation (e.g. open and slip) and fracture fluid flow within a permeable and deformable porous rock matrix are rigorously considered. For porous rock, direct pore-volume coupling was modeled based on an energy-work scheme. For mechanical analysis of fractures, a fracture constitutive model for mechanically open states was introduced. For fluid flow in fractures, both along-fracture and normal-to-fracture fluid flow are modeled without introducing additional degrees of freedom. When the mechanical aperture of a fracture is changing, its hydraulic aperture and hydraulic conductivity is updated. At the same time, under the effect of coupled deformation and fluid flow, the contact state may dynamically change, and the corresponding contact constraint is updated each time step. Therefore, indirect coupling is realized under stringent considerations of coupled HM effects and fracture constitutive behavior transfer dynamically. To verify the new model, examples involving deformable porous media containing a single and two sets of fractures were designed, showing good accuracy. Last, the model was applied to analyze coupled HM behavior of fractured porous rock domains with complex fracture networks under effects of loading and injection.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Aasted
2011-01-01
The objectives of Discrete Mathematics (IDISM2) are: The introduction of the mathematics needed for analysis, design and verification of discrete systems, including the application within programming languages for computer systems. Having passed the IDISM2 course, the student will be able...... to accomplish the following: -Understand and apply formal representations in discrete mathematics. -Understand and apply formal representations in problems within discrete mathematics. -Understand methods for solving problems in discrete mathematics. -Apply methods for solving problems in discrete mathematics......; construct a finite state machine for a given application. Apply these concepts to new problems. The teaching in Discrete Mathematics is a combination of sessions with lectures and students solving problems, either manually or by using Matlab. Furthermore a selection of projects must be solved and handed...
On the physical realizability of quantum stochastic walks
Taketani, Bruno; Govia, Luke; Schuhmacher, Peter; Wilhelm, Frank
Quantum walks are a promising framework that can be used to both understand and implement quantum information processing tasks. The recently developed quantum stochastic walk combines the concepts of a quantum walk and a classical random walk through open system evolution of a quantum system, and have been shown to have applications in as far reaching fields as artificial intelligence. However, nature puts significant constraints on the kind of open system evolutions that can be realized in a physical experiment. In this work, we discuss the restrictions on the allowed open system evolution, and the physical assumptions underpinning them. We then introduce a way to circumvent some of these restrictions, and simulate a more general quantum stochastic walk on a quantum computer, using a technique we call quantum trajectories on a quantum computer. We finally describe a circuit QED approach to implement discrete time quantum stochastic walks.
A stochastic constrained optimization technique and its application to detector array processing.
Winkler, L. P.; Schwartz, M.
1971-01-01
A stochastic projected gradient algorithm is proposed which can be used for finding a constrained optimum point for a concave or convex objective function subject to nonlinear constraints which form a connected region even when only a noisy estimate of the objective function is available. For a constraint described by a single linear equation, convergence to the constrained optimum value is proved, and the rate of convergence of the algorithm to the constrained optimum value is determined. The algorithm is applied to the nonlinear problem of obtaining automatically an array of detectors which forms a beam in a desired direction in space in the presence of interfering noise so as to maximize the SNR subject to a constraint on the super-gain ratio.
Stochastic modelling of landfill processes incorporating waste heterogeneity and data uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zacharof, A.I.; Butler, A.P.
2004-01-01
A landfill is a very complex heterogeneous environment and as such it presents many modelling challenges. Attempts to develop models that reproduce these complexities generally involve the use of large numbers of spatially dependent parameters that cannot be properly characterised in the face of data uncertainty. An alternative method is presented, which couples a simplified microbial degradation model with a stochastic hydrological and contaminant transport model. This provides a framework for incorporating the complex effects of spatial heterogeneity within the landfill in a simplified manner, along with other key variables. A methodology for handling data uncertainty is also integrated into the model structure. Illustrative examples of the model's output are presented to demonstrate effects of data uncertainty on leachate composition and gas volume prediction
Álvarez-Rúa, Carmen; Borge, Javier
2016-01-01
Thermodynamic processes are complex phenomena that can be understood as a set of successive stages. When treating processes, classical thermodynamics (and most particularly, the Gibbsian formulation, predominantly used in chemistry) only pays attention to initial and final states. However, reintroducing the notion of process is absolutely…
Stochastic quantization and gravity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rumpf, H.
1984-01-01
We give a preliminary account of the application of stochastic quantization to the gravitational field. We start in Section I from Nelson's formulation of quantum mechanics as Newtonian stochastic mechanics and only then introduce the Parisi-Wu stochastic quantization scheme on which all the later discussion will be based. In Section II we present a generalization of the scheme that is applicable to fields in physical (i.e. Lorentzian) space-time and treat the free linearized gravitational field in this manner. The most remarkable result of this is the noncausal propagation of conformal gravitons. Moreover the concept of stochastic gauge-fixing is introduced and a complete discussion of all the covariant gauges is given. A special symmetry relating two classes of covariant gauges is exhibited. Finally Section III contains some preliminary remarks on full nonlinear gravity. In particular we argue that in contrast to gauge fields the stochastic gravitational field cannot be transformed to a Gaussian process. (Author)
Casson, Alexander J
2015-12-17
Ultra low power signal processing is an essential part of all sensor nodes, and particularly so in emerging wearable sensors for biomedical applications. Analog signal processing has an important role in these low power, low voltage, low frequency applications, and there is a key drive to decrease the power consumption of existing analog domain signal processing and to map more signal processing approaches into the analog domain. This paper presents an analog domain signal processing circuit which approximates the output of the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) for use in ultra low power wearable sensors. Analog filters are used for the DWT filters and it is demonstrated how these generate analog domain DWT-like information that embeds information from Butterworth and Daubechies maximally flat mother wavelet responses. The Analog DWT is realised in hardware via g(m)C circuits, designed to operate from a 1.3 V coin cell battery, and provide DWT-like signal processing using under 115 nW of power when implemented in a 0.18 μm CMOS process. Practical examples demonstrate the effective use of the new Analog DWT on ECG (electrocardiogram) and EEG (electroencephalogram) signals recorded from humans.
Firth, Jean M
1992-01-01
The analysis of signals and systems using transform methods is a very important aspect of the examination of processes and problems in an increasingly wide range of applications. Whereas the initial impetus in the development of methods appropriate for handling discrete sets of data occurred mainly in an electrical engineering context (for example in the design of digital filters), the same techniques are in use in such disciplines as cardiology, optics, speech analysis and management, as well as in other branches of science and engineering. This text is aimed at a readership whose mathematical background includes some acquaintance with complex numbers, linear differen tial equations, matrix algebra, and series. Specifically, a familiarity with Fourier series (in trigonometric and exponential forms) is assumed, and an exposure to the concept of a continuous integral transform is desirable. Such a background can be expected, for example, on completion of the first year of a science or engineering degree cour...
Stochastic switching in biology: from genotype to phenotype
Bressloff, Paul C.
2017-03-01
There has been a resurgence of interest in non-equilibrium stochastic processes in recent years, driven in part by the observation that the number of molecules (genes, mRNA, proteins) involved in gene expression are often of order 1-1000. This means that deterministic mass-action kinetics tends to break down, and one needs to take into account the discrete, stochastic nature of biochemical reactions. One of the major consequences of molecular noise is the occurrence of stochastic biological switching at both the genotypic and phenotypic levels. For example, individual gene regulatory networks can switch between graded and binary responses, exhibit translational/transcriptional bursting, and support metastability (noise-induced switching between states that are stable in the deterministic limit). If random switching persists at the phenotypic level then this can confer certain advantages to cell populations growing in a changing environment, as exemplified by bacterial persistence in response to antibiotics. Gene expression at the single-cell level can also be regulated by changes in cell density at the population level, a process known as quorum sensing. In contrast to noise-driven phenotypic switching, the switching mechanism in quorum sensing is stimulus-driven and thus noise tends to have a detrimental effect. A common approach to modeling stochastic gene expression is to assume a large but finite system and to approximate the discrete processes by continuous processes using a system-size expansion. However, there is a growing need to have some familiarity with the theory of stochastic processes that goes beyond the standard topics of chemical master equations, the system-size expansion, Langevin equations and the Fokker-Planck equation. Examples include stochastic hybrid systems (piecewise deterministic Markov processes), large deviations and the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) method, adiabatic reductions, and queuing/renewal theory. The major aim of this
Flow Dynamics of green sand in the DISAMATIC moulding process using Discrete element method (DEM)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hovad, Emil; Larsen, P.; Walther, Jens Honore
2015-01-01
to emulate some of these important conditions found in the real moulding process. The sand flow is simulated with the DEM and compared with corresponding video footages from the interior of the chamber during the moulding process. The effect of the rolling resistance and the static friction coefficient...
Digital simulation of an arbitrary stationary stochastic process by spectral representation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yura, Harold T.; Hanson, Steen Grüner
2011-01-01
In this paper we present a straightforward, efficient, and computationally fast method for creating a large number of discrete samples with an arbitrary given probability density function and a specified spectral content. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set...... of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In contrast to previous work, where the analyses were limited...... to auto regressive and or iterative techniques to obtain satisfactory results, we find that a single application of the inverse transform method yields satisfactory results for a wide class of arbitrary probability distributions. Although a single application of the inverse transform technique does...
Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems
Strubbe, S.N.
2005-01-01
In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete
Kuwahara, Jun; Miyata, Hajime; Konno, Hidetoshi
2017-09-01
Recently, complex dynamics of globally coupled oscillators have been attracting many researcher's attentions. In spite of their numerous studies, their features of nonlinear oscillator systems with global and local couplings in two-dimension (2D) are not understood fully. The paper focuses on 2D states of coherent, clustered and chaotic oscillation especially under the effect of negative global coupling (NGC) in 2D Alief-Panfilov model. It is found that the tuning NGC can cause various new coupling-parameter dependency on the features of oscillations. Then quantitative characterization of various states of oscillations (so called spiral wave turbulence) is examined by using the pragmatic information (PI) which have been utilized in analyzing multimode laser, solar activity and neuronal systems. It is demonstrated that the dynamics of the PI for various oscillations can be characterized successfully by the Hyper-Gamma stochastic process.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ceschia, M.; Garfagnini, R.; Lavenia, A.; Toppano, E.
The daily average air temperatures collected during 1984 in Udine and Lignano are studied using stochastic processes. In order to obtain the seasonal component, a computational method has been developed involving the Fourier expansion, while the study of the stationary residual series is carried out by means of ARMA recursive filters. It was found that an autoregressive model of the third order represents the residual data fairly well. This method may also be applied to other meteorological parameters with significant frequencies and with a time behaviour which can be made stationary at least in the wide sense. This work was carried out in the scope of the MICMET program which is aimed at obtaining a detailed analysis of micrometeorological phenomena in the region of Friuli-Venezia Giulia.
Modeling bias and variation in the stochastic processes of small RNA sequencing.
Argyropoulos, Christos; Etheridge, Alton; Sakhanenko, Nikita; Galas, David
2017-06-20
The use of RNA-seq as the preferred method for the discovery and validation of small RNA biomarkers has been hindered by high quantitative variability and biased sequence counts. In this paper we develop a statistical model for sequence counts that accounts for ligase bias and stochastic variation in sequence counts. This model implies a linear quadratic relation between the mean and variance of sequence counts. Using a large number of sequencing datasets, we demonstrate how one can use the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) distributional regression framework to calculate and apply empirical correction factors for ligase bias. Bias correction could remove more than 40% of the bias for miRNAs. Empirical bias correction factors appear to be nearly constant over at least one and up to four orders of magnitude of total RNA input and independent of sample composition. Using synthetic mixes of known composition, we show that the GAMLSS approach can analyze differential expression with greater accuracy, higher sensitivity and specificity than six existing algorithms (DESeq2, edgeR, EBSeq, limma, DSS, voom) for the analysis of small RNA-seq data. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.
Dias, Edgard; Ebdon, James; Taylor, Huw
2015-01-01
This study proposes that calculating and interpreting removal coefficients (K20) for bacteriophages in activated sludge (AS) and trickling filter (TF) systems using stochastic modelling may provide important information that may be used to estimate the removal of phages in such systems using simplified models. In order to achieve this, 14 samples of settled wastewater and post-secondary sedimentation wastewater were collected every 2 weeks, over a 6-month period (May to November), from two AS and two TF systems situated in southern England. Initial results have demonstrated that the removal of somatic coliphages in both AS and TF systems is considerably higher than that of F-RNA coliphages, and that AS more effectively removes both phage groups than TF. The results have also demonstrated that K20 values for phages in AS are higher than in TF, which could be justified by the higher removal rates observed in AS and the models assumed for both systems. The research provides a suggested framework for calculating and predicting removal rates of pathogens and indicator organisms in wastewater treatment systems using simplified models in order to support integrated water and sanitation safety planning approaches to human health risk management.
Confidence estimation as a stochastic process in a neurodynamical system of decision making
Wei, Ziqiang
2015-01-01
Evaluation of confidence about one's knowledge is key to the brain's ability to monitor cognition. To investigate the neural mechanism of confidence assessment, we examined a biologically realistic spiking network model and found that it reproduced salient behavioral observations and single-neuron activity data from a monkey experiment designed to study confidence about a decision under uncertainty. Interestingly, the model predicts that changes of mind can occur in a mnemonic delay when confidence is low; the probability of changes of mind increases (decreases) with task difficulty in correct (error) trials. Furthermore, a so-called “hard-easy effect” observed in humans naturally emerges, i.e., behavior shows underconfidence (underestimation of correct rate) for easy or moderately difficult tasks and overconfidence (overestimation of correct rate) for very difficult tasks. Importantly, in the model, confidence is computed using a simple neural signal in individual trials, without explicit representation of probability functions. Therefore, even a concept of metacognition can be explained by sampling a stochastic neural activity pattern. PMID:25948870
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marinescu, D.C.; Radulescu, T.G.
1977-06-01
The Integral Fourier Transform has a large range of applications in such areas as communication theory, circuit theory, physics, etc. In order to perform discrete Fourier Transform the Finite Fourier Transform is defined; it operates upon N samples of a uniformely sampled continuous function. All the properties known in the continuous case can be found in the discrete case also. The first part of the paper presents the relationship between the Finite Fourier Transform and the Integral one. The computing of a Finite Fourier Transform is a problem in itself since in order to transform a set of N data we have to perform N 2 ''operations'' if the transformation relations are used directly. An algorithm known as the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) reduces this figure from N 2 to a more reasonable Nlog 2 N, when N is a power of two. The original Cooley and Tuckey algorithm for FFT can be further improved when higher basis are used. The price to be paid in this case is the increase in complexity of such algorithms. The recurrence relations and a comparation among such algorithms are presented. The key point in understanding the application of FFT resides in the convolution theorem which states that the convolution (an N 2 type procedure) of the primitive functions is equivalent to the ordinar multiplication of their transforms. Since filtering is actually a convolution process we present several procedures to perform digital filtering by means of FFT. The best is the one using the segmentation of records and the transformation of pairs of records. In the digital processing of signals, besides digital filtering a special attention is paid to the estimation of various statistical characteristics of a signal as: autocorrelation and correlation functions, periodiograms, density power sepctrum, etc. We give several algorithms for the consistent and unbiased estimation of such functions, by means of FFT. (author)
DSP for Matlab and Labview I fundamentals of discrete signal processing
Isen, Forester W
2009-01-01
This book is Volume I of the series DSP for MATLAB™ and LabVIEW™. The entire series consists of four volumes that collectively cover basic digital signal processing in a practical and accessible manner, but which nonetheless include all essential foundation mathematics. As the series title implies, the scripts (of which there are more than 200) described in the text and supplied in code form here will run on both MATLAB and LabVIEW. Volume I consists of four chapters. The first chapter gives a brief overview of the field of digital signal processing. This is followed by a chapter detailing man
Automating the Simulation of SME Processes through a Discrete Event Parametric Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Aggogeri
2015-02-01
Full Text Available At the factory level, the manufacturing system can be described as a group of processes governed by complex weaves of engineering strategies and technologies. Decision- making processes involve a lot of information, driven by managerial strategies, technological implications and layout constraints. Many factors affect decisions, and their combination must be carefully managed to determine the best solutions to optimize performances. In this way, advanced simulation tools could support the decisional process of many SMEs. The accessibility of these tools is limited by knowledge, cost, data availability and development time. These tools should be used to support strategic decisions rather than specific situations. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed that aims to facilitate the simulation of manufacturing processes by fast modelling and evaluation. The idea is to realize a model that is able to be automatically adapted to the user’s specific needs. The model must be characterized by a high degree of flexibility, configurability and adaptability in order to automatically simulate multiple/heterogeneous industrial scenarios. In this way, even a SME can easily access a complex tool, perform thorough analyses and be supported in taking strategic decisions. The parametric DES model is part of a greater software platform developed during COPERNICO EU funded project.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hovad, Emil; Spangenberg, Jon; Larsen, P.
2016-01-01
. The DEM parameters describing the static friction coefficients are obtained using a ring shear tester and the rolling resistance and cohesion value is subsequently calibrated with a sand pile experiment. The calibrated DEM model is used to model the sand shot in the DISAMATIC process for three different...
Van Volsem, Sofie; Dullaert, Wout; Van Landeghem, Hendrik
2007-01-01
The problem of determining the optimal inspection strategy for a given multi-stage production process, i.e. the inspection strategy that results in the lowest total inspection cost, while still assuring a required output quality, is modelled as a joint optimization of inspection location, type and
ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Peiyuan; Pedersen, Troels; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
2010-01-01
This paper proposes a stochastic wind power model based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. The model takes into account the nonstationarity and physical limits of stochastic wind power generation. The model is constructed based on wind power measurement of one year from...... the Nysted offshore wind farm in Denmark. The proposed limited-ARIMA (LARIMA) model introduces a limiter and characterizes the stochastic wind power generation by mean level, temporal correlation and driving noise. The model is validated against the measurement in terms of temporal correlation...... and probability distribution. The LARIMA model outperforms a first-order transition matrix based discrete Markov model in terms of temporal correlation, probability distribution and model parameter number. The proposed LARIMA model is further extended to include the monthly variation of the stochastic wind power...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Busch, Peter Andre; Zinner Henriksen, Helle
2018-01-01
discretion is suggested to reduce this footprint by influencing or replacing their discretionary practices using ICT. What is less researched is whether digital discretion can cause changes in public policy outcomes, and under what conditions such changes can occur. Using the concept of public service values......This study reviews 44 peer-reviewed articles on digital discretion published in the period from 1998 to January 2017. Street-level bureaucrats have traditionally had a wide ability to exercise discretion stirring debate since they can add their personal footprint on public policies. Digital......, we suggest that digital discretion can strengthen ethical and democratic values but weaken professional and relational values. Furthermore, we conclude that contextual factors such as considerations made by policy makers on the macro-level and the degree of professionalization of street...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alistair M. S. Smith
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Recent years have seen the progression of light detection and ranging (lidar from the realm of research to operational use in natural resource management. Numerous government agencies, private industries, and public/private stakeholder consortiums are planning or have recently acquired large-scale acquisitions, and a national U.S. lidar acquisition is likely before 2020. Before it is feasible for land managers to integrate lidar into decision making, resource assessment, or monitoring across the gambit of natural resource applications, consistent standards in project planning, data processing, and user-driven products are required. This paper introduces principal lidar acquisition parameters, and makes recommendations for project planning, processing, and product standards to better serve natural resource managers across multiple disciplines.
Nonlinear Stochastic PDEs: Analysis and Approximations
2016-05-23
Approximation to Nonlinear SPDEs with Discrete Random Variables , SIAM J Scientific Computing, (08 2015): 1872. doi: R. Mikulevicius, B. Rozovskii. On...multiplicative discrete random variables , ( ) S. Lototsky, B. Rozovsky. Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, (09 2015) B. Rozovsky, R...B. Rozovsky and G.E. Karniadakis, "Adaptive Wick-Malliavin approximation to nonlinear SPDEs with discrete random variables ," SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 37
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel
2009-01-01
The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.
Stochastic Models of Evolution
Bezruchko, Boris P.; Smirnov, Dmitry A.
To continue the discussion of randomness given in Sect. 2.2.1, we briefly touch on stochastic models of temporal evolution (random processes). They can be specified either via explicit definition of their statistical properties (probability density functions, correlation functions, etc., Sects. 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3) or via stochastic difference or differential equations. Some of the most widely known equations, their properties and applications are discussed in Sects. 4.4 and 4.5.
Derivation and computation of discrete-delay and continuous-delay SDEs in mathematical biology.
Allen, Edward J
2014-06-01
Stochastic versions of several discrete-delay and continuous-delay differential equations, useful in mathematical biology, are derived from basic principles carefully taking into account the demographic, environmental, or physiological randomness in the dynamic processes. In particular, stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE) models are derived and studied for Nicholson's blowflies equation, Hutchinson's equation, an SIS epidemic model with delay, bacteria/phage dynamics, and glucose/insulin levels. Computational methods for approximating the SDDE models are described. Comparisons between computational solutions of the SDDEs and independently formulated Monte Carlo calculations support the accuracy of the derivations and of the computational methods.
Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier
1994-06-01
The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processes, such as ARCH, jump or Lévy processes. We also address thé case of correlated Gaussian processes, which is shown to be a good description of three différent market indices (MATIF, CAC40, FTSE100). Our main result is thé introduction of thé concept of an optimal strategy in the sense of (functional) minimization of the risk with respect to the portfolio. If the risk may be made to vanish for particular continuous uncorrelated 'quasiGaussian' stochastic processes (including Black and Scholes model), this is no longer the case for more general stochastic processes. The value of the residual risk is obtained and suggests the concept of risk-corrected option prices. In the presence of very large deviations such as in Lévy processes, new criteria for rational fixing of the option prices are discussed. We also apply our method to other types of options, `Asian', `American', and discuss new possibilities (`doubledecker'...). The inclusion of transaction costs leads to the appearance of a natural characteristic trading time scale. L'aptitude à quantifier le coût du risque et à définir une stratégie optimale de gestion de portefeuille dans un marché aléatoire constitue la base de la théorie moderne de la finance. Nous considérons d'abord le problème le plus simple de ce type, à savoir celui de l'option d'achat `européenne', qui a été résolu par Black et Scholes à l'aide du calcul stochastique d'Ito appliqué aux marchés modélisés par un processus Log
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
IAS Admin
V S Borkar is the Institute. Chair Professor of. Electrical Engineering at. IIT Bombay. His research interests are stochastic optimization, theory, algorithms and applica- tions. 1 'Markov Chain Monte Carlo' is another one (see [1]), not to mention schemes that combine both. Stochastic approximation is one of the unsung.
Stochastic resonance in overdamped systems with fractional power nonlinearity
Yang, Jianhua; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.; Chen, Pengpeng; Liu, Houguang
2017-10-01
The stochastic resonance phenomenon in overdamped systems with fractional power nonlinearity is thoroughly investigated. The first kind of nonlinearity is a general fractional power function. The second kind of nonlinearity is a fractional power function with deflection. For the first case, the response is clearly divergent for some fractional exponent values. The curve of the spectral amplification factor versus the fractional exponent presents some discrete regions. For the second case, the response will not be divergent for any fractional exponent value. The spectral amplification factor decreases with the increase in the fractional exponent. For both cases, the nonlinearity is the necessary ingredient to induce stochastic resonance. However, it is not the sufficient cause to amplify the weak signal. On the one hand, the noise cannot induce stochastic resonance in the corresponding linear system. On the other hand, the spectral amplification factor of the nonlinear system is lower than that of the corresponding linear system. Through the analysis carried out in this paper, we are able to find that the system with fractional deflection nonlinearity is a better stochastic resonance system, especially when an appropriate exponent value is chosen. The results in this paper might have a certain reference value for signal processing problems in relation with the stochastic resonance method.
Discrete Network Modeling for Field-Scale Flow and Transport Through Porous Media
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Howington, Stacy
1997-01-01
.... Specifically, a stochastic, high-resolution, discrete network model is developed and explored for simulating macroscopic flow and conservative transport through macroscopic porous media Networks...
Hybrid scheme for Brownian semistationary processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bennedsen, Mikkel; Lunde, Asger; Pakkanen, Mikko S.
We introduce a simulation scheme for Brownian semistationary processes, which is based on discretizing the stochastic integral representation of the process in the time domain. We assume that the kernel function of the process is regularly varying at zero. The novel feature of the scheme is to ap...
On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit
2012-10-01
Pricing carbon is a central concern in environmental economics, due to the importance of emissions trading schemes worldwide to regulate pollution. This paper documents the presence of small and large jumps in the stochastic process of the CO 2 futures price. The large jumps have a discrete origin, i.e. they can arise from various demand factors or institutional decisions on the tradable permits market. Contrary to the previously established literature, we show that the stochastic process of the carbon futures prices does not contain a continuous component (Brownian motion). The results are derived by using high-frequency data in the activity signature function framework (Todorov and Tauchen (2010, 2011)). The implication is that the carbon futures price should be rather modelled as an appropriately sampled, centered Levy or Poisson process. The pure-jump behavior of the carbon price could be explained by the lower volume of trades on this allowance market (compared to other highly liquid financial markets). (authors)
Some considerations on stochastic neutron populations (u)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souto, Francisco J.; Prinja, Anil K.
2010-01-01
The neutron population in a multiplying body containing a weak random source may depart considerably from its average or expected value. The resulting behavior of the system is then unpredictable and a fully stochastic description of the neutron population becomes necessary. Stochastic considerations are especially important when dealing with pulsed reactors or in the case of criticality excursions in the presence of a weak source. Using the theory of discrete-state continuous-time Markov processes, and subject to some physical approximations, Bell (I) obtained approximate solutions for the neutron number probability distributions (pdf), with and without an intrinsic rapdom neutron source, that were valid at late times and/ large neutron populations. In recent work (4), we obtained exact solutions for Bell's model problem, and in this paper we use these exact probability distributions to: (I) assess the accuracy of Bell's asymptotic solutions and show how the latter follow from the exact solutions, (2) rigorously examine the probability of obtaining a divergent chain reaction, and (3) demonstrate the existence of an abrupt transition from a stochastic to a deterministic phase with increasing source strength.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Aasted
2010-01-01
The introduction of the mathematics needed for analysis, design and verification of discrete systems, including applications within programming languages for computer systems. Course sessions and project work. Semester: Spring 2010 Ectent: 5 ects Class size: 18......The introduction of the mathematics needed for analysis, design and verification of discrete systems, including applications within programming languages for computer systems. Course sessions and project work. Semester: Spring 2010 Ectent: 5 ects Class size: 18...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Aasted
2010-01-01
The introduction of the mathematics needed for analysis, design and verification of discrete systems, including applications within programming languages for computer systems. Course sessions and project work. Semester: Autumn 2010 Ectent: 5 ects Class size: 15......The introduction of the mathematics needed for analysis, design and verification of discrete systems, including applications within programming languages for computer systems. Course sessions and project work. Semester: Autumn 2010 Ectent: 5 ects Class size: 15...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E.; Benth, Fred Espen; Szozda, Benedykt
This paper generalizes the integration theory for volatility modulated Brownian-driven Volterra processes onto the space G∗ of Potthoff--Timpel distributions. Sufficient conditions for integrability of generalized processes are given, regularity results and properties of the integral are discusse...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
E. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Szozda, Benedykt
This paper generalizes the integration theory for volatility modulated Brownian-driven Volterra processes onto the space G* of Potthoff-Timpel distributions. Sufficient conditions for integrability of generalized processes are given, regularity results and properties of the integral are discussed...
Ghasemi, Fatemeh; Sahimi, Muhammad; Peinke, J; Friedrich, R; Jafari, G Reza; Tabar, M Reza Rahimi
2007-06-01
We describe a general method for analyzing a nonstationary stochastic process X(t) which, unlike many of the previous analysis methods, does not require X(t) to have any scaling feature. The method is used to study the fluctuations in the daily price of oil. It is shown that the returns time series, y(t)=ln[X(t+1)X(t)] , is a stationary and Markov process, characterized by a Markov time scale t_{M} . The coefficients of the Kramers-Moyal expansion for the probability density function P(y,tmid R:y_{0},t_{0}) are computed. P(y,tmid R:,y_{0},t_{0}) satisfies a Fokker-Planck equation, which is equivalent to a Langevin equation for y(t) that provides quantitative predictions for the oil price over times that are of the order of t_{M}. Also studied is the average frequency of positive-slope crossings, nu_{alpha};{+}=P(y_{i}>alpha,y_{i-1}
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Svetlana Strbac Savic
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Forecasting the operational efficiency of an existing underground mine plays an important role in strategic planning of production. Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL is used to express the operational efficiency of production. The forecasting model should be able to involve common time horizon, taking the characteristics of the input variables that directly affect the value of DOL. Changes in the magnitude of any input variable change the value of DOL. To establish the relationship describing the way of changing we applied multivariable grey modeling. Established time sequence multivariable response formula is also used to forecast the future values of operating leverage. Operational efficiency of production is often associated with diverse sources of uncertainties. Incorporation of these uncertainties into multivariable forecasting model enables mining company to survive in today’s competitive environment. Simulation of mean reversion process and geometric Brownian motion is used to describe the stochastic diffusion nature of metal price, as a key element of revenues, and production costs, respectively. By simulating a forecasting model, we imitate its action in order to measure its response to different inputs. The final result of simulation process is the expected value of DOL for every year of defined time horizon.
Petersen, R. A.; Uccellini, L. W.
1979-01-01
An explicit technique for calculating atmospheric trajectories is presented as an alternative method to the standard implicit scheme of Danielsen (1961). The technique uses the inviscid equations of motion and the discrete model formulation derived by Greenspan (1972, 1973) to compute trajectories on isentropic surfaces, assuming adiabatic flow. The discrete model formulation is designed specifically for a Lagrangian system and objectively accounts for the geostrophic departures, local psi-tendencies, and the subsequent accelerations along the entire length of the trajectory. Application of the discrete formulation to a diagnostic case study yielded favorable results.
Wolff, Hans
This paper deals with a stochastic process for the approximation of the root of a regression equation. This process was first suggested by Robbins and Monro. The main result here is a necessary and sufficient condition on the iteration coefficients for convergence of the process (convergence with probability one and convergence in the quadratic…
Stochastic Pi-calculus Revisited
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cardelli, Luca; Mardare, Radu Iulian
2013-01-01
We develop a version of stochastic Pi-calculus with a semantics based on measure theory. We dene the behaviour of a process in a rate environment using measures over the measurable space of processes induced by structural congruence. We extend the stochastic bisimulation to include the concept...
Analysis of the stochastic channel model by Saleh & Valenzuela via the theory of point processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jakobsen, Morten Lomholt; Pedersen, Troels; Fleury, Bernard Henri
2012-01-01
In this paper we revisit the classical channel model by Saleh & Valenzuela via the theory of spatial point processes. By reformulating this model as a particular point process and by repeated application of Campbell’s Theorem we provide concise and elegant access to its overall structure and unde......In this paper we revisit the classical channel model by Saleh & Valenzuela via the theory of spatial point processes. By reformulating this model as a particular point process and by repeated application of Campbell’s Theorem we provide concise and elegant access to its overall structure...... to define, analyze, and compare most channel models already suggested in literature and that the powerful tools of this framework have not been fully exploited in this context yet....
Hutzenthaler, Martin
2015-01-01
Many stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in the literature have a superlinearly growing nonlinearity in their drift or diffusion coefficient. Unfortunately, moments of the computationally efficient Euler-Maruyama approximation method diverge for these SDEs in finite time. This article develops a general theory based on rare events for studying integrability properties such as moment bounds for discrete-time stochastic processes. Using this approach, the authors establish moment bounds for fully and partially drift-implicit Euler methods and for a class of new explicit approximation method
McKean, Henry P
2005-01-01
This little book is a brilliant introduction to an important boundary field between the theory of probability and differential equations. -E. B. Dynkin, Mathematical Reviews This well-written book has been used for many years to learn about stochastic integrals. The book starts with the presentation of Brownian motion, then deals with stochastic integrals and differentials, including the famous Itô lemma. The rest of the book is devoted to various topics of stochastic integral equations, including those on smooth manifolds. Originally published in 1969, this classic book is ideal for supplemen
On Drift Parameter Estimation in Models with Fractional Brownian Motion by Discrete Observations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuliya Mishura
2014-06-01
Full Text Available We study a problem of an unknown drift parameter estimation in a stochastic differen- tial equation driven by fractional Brownian motion. We represent the likelihood ratio as a function of the observable process. The form of this representation is in general rather complicated. However, in the simplest case it can be simplified and we can discretize it to establish the a. s. convergence of the discretized version of maximum likelihood estimator to the true value of parameter. We also investigate a non-standard estimator of the drift parameter showing further its strong consistency.
Hermann, Philipp; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Mattfeldt, Torsten; Minárová, Mária; Helisová, Kateřina; Nicolis, Orietta; Wartner, Fabian; Stehlík, Milan
2015-08-15
Fractals are models of natural processes with many applications in medicine. The recent studies in medicine show that fractals can be applied for cancer detection and the description of pathological architecture of tumors. This fact is not surprising, as due to the irregular structure, cancerous cells can be interpreted as fractals. Inspired by Sierpinski carpet, we introduce a flexible parametric model of random carpets. Randomization is introduced by usage of binomial random variables. We provide an algorithm for estimation of parameters of the model and illustrate theoretical and practical issues in generation of Sierpinski gaskets and Hausdorff measure calculations. Stochastic geometry models can also serve as models for binary cancer images. Recently, a Boolean model was applied on the 200 images of mammary cancer tissue and 200 images of mastopathic tissue. Here, we describe the Quermass-interaction process, which can handle much more variations in the cancer data, and we apply it to the images. It was found out that mastopathic tissue deviates significantly stronger from Quermass-interaction process, which describes interactions among particles, than mammary cancer tissue does. The Quermass-interaction process serves as a model describing the tissue, which structure is broken to a certain level. However, random fractal model fits well for mastopathic tissue. We provide a novel discrimination method between mastopathic and mammary cancer tissue on the basis of complex wavelet-based self-similarity measure with classification rates more than 80%. Such similarity measure relates to Hurst exponent and fractional Brownian motions. The R package FractalParameterEstimation is developed and introduced in the paper. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Lp -norm minimization for stochastic process power spectrum estimation subject to incomplete data
Zhang, Yuanjin; Comerford, Liam; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Beer, Michael
2018-02-01
A general Lp norm (0 process power spectra subject to realizations with incomplete/missing data. Specifically, relying on the assumption that the recorded incomplete data exhibit a significant degree of sparsity in a given domain, employing appropriate Fourier and wavelet bases, and focusing on the L1 and L1/2 norms, it is shown that the approach can satisfactorily estimate the spectral content of the underlying process. Further, the accuracy of the approach is significantly enhanced by utilizing an adaptive basis re-weighting scheme. Finally, the effect of the chosen norm on the power spectrum estimation error is investigated, and it is shown that the L1/2 norm provides almost always a sparser solution than the L1 norm. Numerical examples consider several stationary, non-stationary, and multi-dimensional processes for demonstrating the accuracy and robustness of the approach, even in cases of up to 80% missing data.
Joseph Buongiorno
2001-01-01
Faustmann's formula gives the land value, or the forest value of land with trees, under deterministic assumptions regarding future stand growth and prices, over an infinite horizon. Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's approach by recognizing that future stand states and prices are known only as probabilistic distributions. The...
Counseling as a Stochastic Process: Fitting a Markov Chain Model to Initial Counseling Interviews
Lichtenberg, James W.; Hummel, Thomas J.
1976-01-01
The goodness of fit of a first-order Markov chain model to six counseling interviews was assessed by using chi-square tests of homogeneity and simulating sampling distributions of selected process characteristics against which the same characteristics in the actual interviews were compared. The model fit four of the interviews. Presented at AERA,…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liang Jing
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a hybrid stochastic-interval analytic hierarchy process (SIAHP approach to address uncertainty in group decision making by integrating interval judgment, probabilistic distribution, lexicographic goal programming, and Monte Carlo simulation. A case study related to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP effluent reuse was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Four candidate alternatives including city moat landscaping, municipal reuse, industrial reuse, and agricultural irrigation were evaluated by five experts according to technical, economic, and environmental criteria. The results suggest that industrial reuse (0.18–0.3 is more preferred over municipal reuse (0.16–0.25 or agricultural irrigation (0.17–0.26 in most replications. The final score of city moat landscaping ranges from 0.11 to 0.31 which indicates a great divergence of expert opinions. It can be concluded that choosing industrial reuse seems to give the best overall account of technical, economic, and environmental concerns. The proposed SIAHP approach can aid group decision making by accommodating linguistic information and dealing with insufficient information or biased opinions.
Huang, Tsung-Yu; Tseng, Ching-Wei; Yeh, Ting-Tso; Yeh, Tien-Tien; Luo, Chih-Wei; Akalin, Tahsin; Yen, Ta-Jen
2015-12-01
We design and demonstrate a flexible, ultrathin and double-sided metamaterial perfect absorber (MPA) at 2.39 terahertz (THz), which enables excellent light absorbance under incidences from two opposite sides. Herein, the MPA is fabricated on a λ0/10.1-thick flexible polyethylene terephthalate substrate of εr = 2.75 × (1 + 0.12i), sandwiched by two identical randomized metallic patterns by our stochastic design process. Such an MPA provides tailored permittivity and permeability to approach the impedance of free space for minimizing reflectance and a great imaginary part of the refractive index for reducing transmittance and finally results in high absorbance. Both experimental measurement and numerical simulation are in a good agreement. The flexible, ultrathin and double-sided MPA significantly differs from traditional quarter-wavelength absorbers and other single-sided perfect absorbers, paving a way toward practical THz applications in thermal emission, sensing and imaging, communications, stealth technique, and even energy harvesting.
spate: An R Package for Spatio-Temporal Modeling with a Stochastic Advection-Diffusion Process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabio Sigrist
2015-02-01
This package aims at providing tools for simulating and modeling of spatio-temporal processes using an SPDE based approach. The package contains functions for obtaining parametrizations, such as propagator or innovation covariance matrices, of the spatio-temporal model. This allows for building customized hierarchical Bayesian models using the SPDE based model at the process stage. The functions of the package then provide computationally efficient algorithms needed for doing inference with the hierarchical model. Furthermore, an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm implemented in the package can be used as an algorithm for doing inference without any additional modeling. This function is flexible and allows for application specific customizing. The MCMC algorithm supports data that follow a Gaussian or a censored distribution with point mass at zero. Spatio-temporal covariates can be included in the model through a regression term.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Augusto Hernández Vidal
2011-12-01
Full Text Available In order to strengthen the concept of municipal autonomy, this essay proposes an extensive interpretation of administrative discretion. Discretion is the exercise of free judgment given by law to authorities for performing official acts. This legislative technique seems to be suitable whenever the legislative is intended to legislate over the essential core of municipal autonomy. This way, an eventual abuse of that autonomy could be avoided, for the disproportional restriction of the local faculty to oversee the local issues. This alternative is presented as a tool to provide with dynamism the performing of administrative activities as well, aiming to assimilate public administration new practices.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, T.D.
1985-01-01
This paper reviews the role of time throughout all phases of mechanics: classical mechanics, non-relativistic quantum mechanics, and relativistic quantum theory. As an example of the relativistic quantum field theory, the case of a massless scalar field interacting with an arbitrary external current is discussed. The comparison between the new discrete theory and the usual continuum formalism is presented. An example is given of a two-dimensional random lattice and its duel. The author notes that there is no evidence that the discrete mechanics is more appropriate than the usual continuum mechanics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Aasted
2011-01-01
The objectives of Discrete Mathematics (IDISM2) are: The introduction of the mathematics needed for analysis, design and verification of discrete systems, including the application within programming languages for computer systems. Having passed the IDISM2 course, the student will be able....... Having completed this the student is able to carry out the following: Expressions and sets: Define a set; define a logic expression; negate a logic expression; combine logic expressions; construct a truth table for a logic expression; apply reduction rules for logic expressions. Apply these concepts...
Caltagirone, Jean-Paul
2014-01-01
This book presents the fundamental principles of mechanics to re-establish the equations of Discrete Mechanics. It introduces physics and thermodynamics associated to the physical modeling. The development and the complementarity of sciences lead to review today the old concepts that were the basis for the development of continuum mechanics. The differential geometry is used to review the conservation laws of mechanics. For instance, this formalism requires a different location of vector and scalar quantities in space. The equations of Discrete Mechanics form a system of equations where the H
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2006-01-01
Full Text Available RF circuits for multi-GHz frequencies have recently migrated to low-cost digital deep-submicron CMOS processes. Unfortunately, this process environment, which is optimized only for digital logic and SRAM memory, is extremely unfriendly for conventional analog and RF designs. We present fundamental techniques recently developed that transform the RF and analog circuit design complexity to digitally intensive domain for a wireless RF transceiver, so that it enjoys benefits of digital and switched-capacitor approaches. Direct RF sampling techniques allow great flexibility in reconfigurable radio design. Digital signal processing concepts are used to help relieve analog design complexity, allowing one to reduce cost and power consumption in a reconfigurable design environment. The ideas presented have been used in Texas Instruments to develop two generations of commercial digital RF processors: a single-chip Bluetooth radio and a single-chip GSM radio. We further present details of the RF receiver front end for a GSM radio realized in a 90-nm digital CMOS technology. The circuit consisting of low-noise amplifier, transconductance amplifier, and switching mixer offers 32.5 dB dynamic range with digitally configurable voltage gain of 40 dB down to 7.5 dB. A series of decimation and discrete-time filtering follows the mixer and performs a highly linear second-order lowpass filtering to reject close-in interferers. The front-end gains can be configured with an automatic gain control to select an optimal setting to form a trade-off between noise figure and linearity and to compensate the process and temperature variations. Even under the digital switching activity, noise figure at the 40 dB maximum gain is 1.8 dB and +50 dBm IIP2 at the 34 dB gain. The variation of the input matching versus multiple gains is less than 1 dB. The circuit in total occupies 3.1 mm 2 . The LNA, TA, and mixer consume less than 15.3 mA at a supply voltage of 1.4 V.
Stochastic Dynamics through Hierarchically Embedded Markov Chains
Vasconcelos, Vítor V.; Santos, Fernando P.; Santos, Francisco C.; Pacheco, Jorge M.
2017-02-01
Studying dynamical phenomena in finite populations often involves Markov processes of significant mathematical and/or computational complexity, which rapidly becomes prohibitive with increasing population size or an increasing number of individual configuration states. Here, we develop a framework that allows us to define a hierarchy of approximations to the stationary distribution of general systems that can be described as discrete Markov processes with time invariant transition probabilities and (possibly) a large number of states. This results in an efficient method for studying social and biological communities in the presence of stochastic effects—such as mutations in evolutionary dynamics and a random exploration of choices in social systems—including situations where the dynamics encompasses the existence of stable polymorphic configurations, thus overcoming the limitations of existing methods. The present formalism is shown to be general in scope, widely applicable, and of relevance to a variety of interdisciplinary problems.
Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wei, Qingda, E-mail: weiqd@hqu.edu.cn [Huaqiao University, School of Economics and Finance (China); Chen, Xian, E-mail: chenxian@amss.ac.cn [Peking University, School of Mathematical Sciences (China)
2016-10-15
In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hernandez Ramos, Hugo
2008-12-15
The electrical energy prices own very particular characteristics that make them different from the prices of any good which are immersed under the fluctuation of the laws of supply and demand. The present work proposes a revision and modification of the model for the prices of electrical energy based on stochastic processes, developed in 2002 by M.T. Barlow. Our model satisfactorily explains the dynamics of the prices, having as an example the case of the energy market of Alberta, CA. The proposed model is based on the power transformation of Yeo-Johnson in 2000, which does not have dominion restrictions. Also, it is assumed that the energy price depends on the demand, which is modeled as a process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. The proposed model was applied to real data, obtaining corresponding estimations of the interest parameters, as well as their validation. Also simulation results are shown to determine the empirical distribution of the estimators of maximum credibility of the parameters. [Spanish] Los precios de energia electrica poseen caracteristicas muy particulares que los hacen diferentes a los precios de cualquier bien que estan inmersos bajo la fluctuacion de las leyes de la oferta y la demanda. El presente trabajo propone una revision y modificacion del modelo para los precios de energia electrica basado en procesos estocasticos, desarrollado en 2002 por M. T. Barlow. Nuestro modelo explica satisfactoriamente la dinamica de los precios, teniendo como ejemplo el caso del mercado de energia de Alberta, Ca. El modelo propuesto esta basado en la transformacion potencia de Yeo-Johnson en 2000, la cual no tiene restricciones de dominio. Tambien, se asume que el precio de la energia depende de la demanda, la cual es modelada como un proceso de Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. El modelo propuesto se aplico a datos reales, obteniendo estimaciones correspondientes de los parametros de interes, asi como su validacion. Tambien se muestran resultados de simulacion para determinar la
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petrică Andreea-Cristina
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Modeling exchange rate volatility became an important topic for research debate starting with 1973, when many countries switched to floating exchange rate system. In this paper, we focus on the EUR/RON exchange rate both as an economic measure and present the implied economic links, and also as a financial investment and analyze its movements and fluctuations through two volatility stochastic processes: the Standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (GARCH and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (EGARCH. The objective of the conditional variance processes is to capture dependency in the return series of the EUR/RON exchange rate. On this account, analyzing exchange rates could be seen as the input for economic decisions regarding Romanian macroeconomics - the exchange rates being influenced by many factors such as: interest rates, inflation, trading relationships with other countries (imports and exports, or investments - portfolio optimization, risk management, asset pricing. Therefore, we talk about political stability and economic performance of a country that represents a link between the two types of inputs mentioned above and influences both the macroeconomics and the investments. Based on time-varying volatility, we examine implied volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using the standard GARCH model and the asymmetric EGARCH model, whose parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method and the error terms follow two distributions (Normal and Student’s t. The empirical results show EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 and Student’s t error terms distribution performs better than all the estimated standard GARCH models (GARCH(1,1, GARCH(1,2, GARCH(2,1 and GARCH(2,2. This conclusion is supported by the major advantage of the EGARCH model compared to the GARCH model which consists in allowing good and bad news having different impact on the
Pooley, C M; Bishop, S C; Marion, G
2015-06-06
Bayesian statistics provides a framework for the integration of dynamic models with incomplete data to enable inference of model parameters and unobserved aspects of the system under study. An important class of dynamic models is discrete state space, continuous-time Markov processes (DCTMPs). Simulated via the Doob-Gillespie algorithm, these have been used to model systems ranging from chemistry to ecology to epidemiology. A new type of proposal, termed 'model-based proposal' (MBP), is developed for the efficient implementation of Bayesian inference in DCTMPs using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This new method, which in principle can be applied to any DCTMP, is compared (using simple epidemiological SIS and SIR models as easy to follow exemplars) to a standard MCMC approach and a recently proposed particle MCMC (PMCMC) technique. When measurements are made on a single-state variable (e.g. the number of infected individuals in a population during an epidemic), model-based proposal MCMC (MBP-MCMC) is marginally faster than PMCMC (by a factor of 2-8 for the tests performed), and significantly faster than the standard MCMC scheme (by a factor of 400 at least). However, when model complexity increases and measurements are made on more than one state variable (e.g. simultaneously on the number of infected individuals in spatially separated subpopulations), MBP-MCMC is significantly faster than PMCMC (more than 100-fold for just four subpopulations) and this difference becomes increasingly large. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sharpe, Eric
2003-01-01
In this article we explain discrete torsion. Put simply, discrete torsion is the choice of orbifold group action on the B field. We derive the classification H 2 (Γ,U(1)), the twisted sector phases appearing in string loop partition functions, Douglas's description of discrete torsion for D-branes in terms of a projective representation of the orbifold group, and outline how the results of Vafa and Witten fit into this framework. In addition, we observe that additional degrees of freedom (known as shift orbifolds) appear in describing orbifold group actions on B fields, in addition to those classified by H 2 (Γ,U(1)), and explain how these degrees of freedom appear in terms of twisted sector contributions to partition functions and in terms of orbifold actions on D-brane worldvolumes. This paper represents a technically simplified version of prior papers by the author on discrete torsion. We repeat here technically simplified versions of results from those papers, and have included some new material
Stochastic Integration in Abstract Spaces
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. K. Brooks
2010-01-01
-valued process (∫ called the stochastic integral. The Lebesgue space of these integrable processes is studied and convergence theorems are given. Extensions to general locally convex spaces are presented.
On Nash Equilibria in Stochastic Games
2003-10-01
Traditionally automata theory and veri cation has considered zero sum or strictly competitive versions of stochastic games . In these games there are two players...zero- sum discrete-time stochastic dynamic games . SIAM J. Control and Optimization, 19(5):617{634, 1981. 18. R.J. Lipton, E . Markakis, and A. Mehta...Playing large games using simple strate- gies. In EC 03: Electronic Commerce, pages 36{41. ACM Press, 2003. 19. A. Maitra and W. Sudderth. Finitely
Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Valor
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.
HYDRASTAR - a code for stochastic simulation of groundwater flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Norman, S.
1992-05-01
The computer code HYDRASTAR was developed as a tool for groundwater flow and transport simulations in the SKB 91 safety analysis project. Its conceptual ideas can be traced back to a report by Shlomo Neuman in 1988, see the reference section. The main idea of the code is the treatment of the rock as a stochastic continuum which separates it from the deterministic methods previously employed by SKB and also from the discrete fracture models. The current report is a comprehensive description of HYDRASTAR including such topics as regularization or upscaling of a hydraulic conductivity field, unconditional and conditional simulation of stochastic processes, numerical solvers for the hydrology and streamline equations and finally some proposals for future developments
Lukacs, Eugene; Lukacs, E
1975-01-01
Stochastic Convergence, Second Edition covers the theoretical aspects of random power series dealing with convergence problems. This edition contains eight chapters and starts with an introduction to the basic concepts of stochastic convergence. The succeeding chapters deal with infinite sequences of random variables and their convergences, as well as the consideration of certain sets of random variables as a space. These topics are followed by discussions of the infinite series of random variables, specifically the lemmas of Borel-Cantelli and the zero-one laws. Other chapters evaluate the po
Nonparametric Bayesian drift estimation for multidimensional stochastic differential equations
Gugushvili, S.; Spreij, P.
2014-01-01
We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the drift coefficient of a multidimensional stochastic differential equation from discrete-time observations on the solution of this equation. Under suitable regularity conditions, we establish posterior consistency in this context.
Yang, Hanyu; Cranford, James A; Li, Runze; Buu, Anne
2015-02-20
This study proposes a generalized time-varying effect model that can be used to characterize a discrete longitudinal covariate process and its time-varying effect on a later outcome that may be discrete. The proposed method can be applied to examine two important research questions for daily process data: measurement reactivity and predictive validity. We demonstrate these applications using health risk behavior data collected from alcoholic couples through an interactive voice response system. The statistical analysis results show that the effect of measurement reactivity may only be evident in the first week of interactive voice response assessment. Moreover, the level of urge to drink before measurement reactivity takes effect may be more predictive of a later depression outcome. Our simulation study shows that the performance of the proposed method improves with larger sample sizes, more time points, and smaller proportions of zeros in the binary longitudinal covariate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R.A. Zait
2016-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper, the stochastic Wiener Hermite expansion (WHE is used to find the statistical measures (mean and variance of the first order stochastic approximation (Gaussian part of the stochastic solution processes related to the nonlinear damped Duffing oscillator model which is excited randomly by white noise process. Under the application of WHE, a deterministic model is generated to simulate the statistical measures. In next stages, smi-analytical treatments are performed under applying multi-step differential transformed method (Ms-DTM and some cases study are illustrated related to the statistical properties using Mathematica10 software.
Schillinger, Dominik
2013-07-01
The method of separation can be used as a non-parametric estimation technique, especially suitable for evolutionary spectral density functions of uniformly modulated and strongly narrow-band stochastic processes. The paper at hand provides a consistent derivation of method of separation based spectrum estimation for the general multi-variate and multi-dimensional case. The validity of the method is demonstrated by benchmark tests with uniformly modulated spectra, for which convergence to the analytical solution is demonstrated. The key advantage of the method of separation is the minimization of spectral dispersion due to optimum time- or space-frequency localization. This is illustrated by the calibration of multi-dimensional and multi-variate geometric imperfection models from strongly narrow-band measurements in I-beams and cylindrical shells. Finally, the application of the method of separation based estimates for the stochastic buckling analysis of the example structures is briefly discussed. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
Research in Stochastic Processes.
1982-10-31
Medicine 70, (1981), 960-970. G. Kallianpur, Same ramifications of Wiener’s ideas on nonlinear prediction, in Norbert Wiener , Collected Works Volume III... Norbert Wiener " at the Meetings of the American Mathematical Society at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland (October 1982). (8) The Layman...joint error M5E(SP) is computed when the input is Gaussian. For a Wiener input, the joint distribution of the sanple point and predictive errors is
Stochastic dynamics and control
Sun, Jian-Qiao; Zaslavsky, George
2006-01-01
This book is a result of many years of author's research and teaching on random vibration and control. It was used as lecture notes for a graduate course. It provides a systematic review of theory of probability, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. The feedback control is also reviewed in the book. Random vibration analyses of SDOF, MDOF and continuous structural systems are presented in a pedagogical order. The application of the random vibration theory to reliability and fatigue analysis is also discussed. Recent research results on fatigue analysis of non-Gaussian stress proc
Kirstein, Bernd
2015-01-01
The volume is dedicated to Lev Sakhnovich, who made fundamental contributions in operator theory and related topics. Besides bibliographic material, it includes a number of selected papers related to Lev Sakhnovich's research interests. The papers are related to operator identities, moment problems, random matrices and linear stochastic systems.
Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos
2015-10-01
processes. As originally developed by Norbert Weiner, a polynomial chaos represents key properties of a stochastic process through the application of...polynomial chaos method for representing the properties of second order stochastic processes. As originally developed by Norbert Weiner, a...any real or complex functional ][xF in 2L converges to ][xF in the 2L sense with Wiener measure.[3] In the same reference, the orthogonality of
Set-Valued Stochastic Lebesque Integral and Representation Theorems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jungang Li
2008-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we shall firstly illustrate why we should introduce set-valued stochastic integrals, and then we shall discuss some properties of set-valued stochastic processes and the relation between a set-valued stochastic process and its selection set. After recalling the Aumann type definition of stochastic integral, we shall introduce a new definition of Lebesgue integral of a set-valued stochastic process with respect to the time t . Finally we shall prove the presentation theorem of set-valued stochastic integral and dis- cuss further properties that will be useful to study set-valued stochastic differential equations with their applications.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rescigno, Thomas N.; Horner, Daniel A.; Yip, Frank L.; McCurdy,C. William
2005-08-29
Gaussian basis functions, routinely employed in molecular electronic structure calculations, can be combined with numerical grid-based functions in a discrete variable representation to provide an efficient method for computing molecular continuum wave functions. This approach, combined with exterior complex scaling, obviates the need for slowly convergent single-center expansions, and allows one to study a variety of electron-molecule collision problems. The method is illustrated by computation of various bound and continuum properties of H2+.
Approximation Methods in Stochastic Max-Plus Systems
Safaei Farahani, S.
2012-01-01
Stochastic max-plus systems belong to a special class of discrete-event systems. This class consists of systems with synchronization but no choice and the models of such systems are defined using the operators maximization and addition. Stochastic max-plus systems can be further extended to
Mean square exponential stability of stochastic delayed Hopfield neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wan Li; Sun Jianhua
2005-01-01
Stochastic effects to the stability property of Hopfield neural networks (HNN) with discrete and continuously distributed delay are considered. By using the method of variation parameter, inequality technique and stochastic analysis, the sufficient conditions to guarantee the mean square exponential stability of an equilibrium solution are given. Two examples are also given to demonstrate our results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gutierrez, R.; Gutierrez-Sanchez, R.; Nafidi, A.
2009-01-01
The main aim of this study is to model the trend of the evolution of the total stock of private petrol-driven cars. In Spain, as in other EU countries, this trend between 2000 and 2005 differed significantly from that observed from 1986 to 1999. Moreover, it varies greatly from that corresponding to the stock of diesel-driven cars, which consistently presents an exponential Gompertz-type increase. Spain constitutes a typical example of a failure to observe the maximum CO 2 emission levels assigned to it by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (1992); a significant percentage of these excess emissions is accounted for by the land transport sector, in general, and by the private cars subsector, in particular. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a new non homogeneous stochastic gamma-type diffusion process which it is a stochastic version of a Gamma function type deterministic growth model considered in Skiadas . We describe its main probabilistic characteristics and establish a statistical methodology by which it can be fitted to real data and obtain medium-term forecasts that, in statistical terms, are quite accurate
Mizell, Carolyn Barrett; Malone, Linda
2007-01-01
The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.
Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators
Le Maître, O. P.
2015-06-28
This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.
Parker, R Gary
1988-01-01
This book treats the fundamental issues and algorithmic strategies emerging as the core of the discipline of discrete optimization in a comprehensive and rigorous fashion. Following an introductory chapter on computational complexity, the basic algorithmic results for the two major models of polynomial algorithms are introduced--models using matroids and linear programming. Further chapters treat the major non-polynomial algorithms: branch-and-bound and cutting planes. The text concludes with a chapter on heuristic algorithms.Several appendixes are included which review the fundamental ideas o
Counting Processes for Retail Default Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kiefer, Nicholas Maximilian; Larson, C. Erik
in a discrete state space. In a simple case, the states could be default/non-default; in other models relevant for credit modeling the states could be credit scores or payment status (30 dpd, 60 dpd, etc.). Here we focus on the use of stochastic counting processes for mortgage default modeling, using data...
Overruled harmonic explorers in the plane and stochastic Löwner evolution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Celani, A; Mazzino, A; Tizzi, M
2009-01-01
The stochastic Löwner evolutions SLE κ are a family of continuous stochastic curves in the real parameter κ, but only few and isolated examples of two-dimensional discrete growth processes are known to converge to a SLE κ . Although one-parameter families of discrete stochastic processes are provided by spin models such as the O(n) model or the q-state Potts model, building an exploration process on the basis of these is onerous and computationally expensive, because it requires solving for the entire domain at each step. The basic idea of the present work is the search for a one-parameter family of computationally cheap exploration processes in one-to-one correspondence with SLE κ . We introduce a class of exploration processes in the plane that extends the harmonic explorer. These processes, dubbed overruled harmonic explorers, enjoy the domain Markov property by construction and are supposed to converge to SLE κ in the scaling limit. We show by means of numerical simulations that crossing probabilities in rectangular domains are indeed conformally invariant, and conjecture a linear relation between κ and the parameter p labelling the overruled harmonic explorer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prateek Sharma
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Simulation can be regarded as the emulation of the behavior of a real-world system over an interval of time. The process of simulation relies upon the generation of the history of a system and then analyzing that history to predict the outcome and improve the working of real systems. Simulations can be of various kinds but the topic of interest here is one of the most important kind of simulation which is Discrete-Event Simulation which models the system as a discrete sequence of events in time. So this paper aims at introducing about Discrete-Event Simulation and analyzing how it is beneficial to the real world systems.
Entropy Production in Stochastics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
2017-10-01
Full Text Available While the modern definition of entropy is genuinely probabilistic, in entropy production the classical thermodynamic definition, as in heat transfer, is typically used. Here we explore the concept of entropy production within stochastics and, particularly, two forms of entropy production in logarithmic time, unconditionally (EPLT or conditionally on the past and present having been observed (CEPLT. We study the theoretical properties of both forms, in general and in application to a broad set of stochastic processes. A main question investigated, related to model identification and fitting from data, is how to estimate the entropy production from a time series. It turns out that there is a link of the EPLT with the climacogram, and of the CEPLT with two additional tools introduced here, namely the differenced climacogram and the climacospectrum. In particular, EPLT and CEPLT are related to slopes of log-log plots of these tools, with the asymptotic slopes at the tails being most important as they justify the emergence of scaling laws of second-order characteristics of stochastic processes. As a real-world application, we use an extraordinary long time series of turbulent velocity and show how a parsimonious stochastic model can be identified and fitted using the tools developed.
On the Hamiltonian structure of large deviations in stochastic hybrid systems
Bressloff, Paul C.; Faugeras, Olivier
2017-03-01
We present a new derivation of the classical action underlying a large deviation principle (LDP) for a stochastic hybrid system, which couples a piecewise deterministic dynamical system in {{{R}}d} with a time-homogeneous Markov chain on some discrete space Γ . We assume that the Markov chain on Γ is ergodic, and that the discrete dynamics is much faster than the piecewise deterministic dynamics (separation of time-scales). Using the Perron-Frobenius theorem and the calculus-of-variations, we show that the resulting action Hamiltonian is given by the Perron eigenvalue of a | Γ | -dimensional linear equation. The corresponding linear operator depends on the transition rates of the Markov chain and the nonlinear functions of the piecewise deterministic system. We compare the Hamiltonian to one derived using WKB methods, and show that the latter is a reduction of the former. We also indicate how the analysis can be extended to a multi-scale stochastic process, in which the continuous dynamics is described by a piecewise stochastic differential equations (SDE). Finally, we illustrate the theory by considering applications to conductance-based models of membrane voltage fluctuations in the presence of stochastic ion channels.
Zheng, Ying; Wong, David Shan-Hill; Wang, Yan-Wei; Fang, Huajing
2014-07-01
In many batch-based industrial manufacturing processes, feedback run-to-run control is used to improve production quality. However, measurements may be expensive and cannot always be performed online. Thus, the measurement delay always exists. The metrology delay will affect the stability and performance of the process. Moreover, since quality measurements are performed offline, delay is not fixed but is stochastic in nature. In this paper, a modeling approach Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) model is presented to handle stochastic metrology delay in both single-product and mixed-product processes. Based on the Markov characteristics of the delay, the membership of the T-S model is derived. Performance indices such as the mean and the variance of the closed-loop output of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control algorithm can be derived. A steady-state error of the process output always exists, which leads the output deviating from the target. To remove the steady-state error, an algorithm called compensatory EWMA run-to-run (COM-EWMA-RtR) algorithm is proposed. The validity of the T-S model analysis and the efficiency of the proposed COM-EWMA-RtR algorithm are confirmed by simulation.
Muralisankar, S.; Manivannan, A.; Balasubramaniam, P.
2012-10-01
In this paper, the robust stability for uncertain neutral stochastic system with Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model and Markovian jumping parameters (MJPs) are investigated. The jumping parameters considered here are generated from a continuous-time discrete-state homogeneous Markov process, which are governed by a Markov process with discrete and finite-state space. Some novel sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point in the mean square. By utilizing the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, stochastic analysis theory, some free weighting matrices and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, the upper bound of time-varying delay is obtained by using Matlab® control toolbox. Finally, some numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.
Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Differential Equations; An Overview
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jan Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik; Young, P. C.
2000-01-01
This paper presents an overview of the progress of research on parameter estimation methods for stochastic differential equations (mostly in the sense of Ito calculus) over the period 1981-1999. These are considered both without measurement noise and with measurement noise, where the discretely...... observed stochastic differential equations are embedded in a continuous-discrete time state space model. Every attempts has been made to include results from other scientific disciplines. Maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in nonlinear stochastic differential equations is in general not possible...
Stochasticity, decoherence and an arrow of time from the ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
physics pp. 593–606. Stochasticity, decoherence and an arrow of time from the discretization of time? M C VALSAKUMAR. Materials Science Division, Indira ... concepts of space and time to be intuitively obvious, and view space–time as an .... unique definition of a discrete-time derivative, we do this by first stipulating the.
Stochastic estimation of electricity consumption
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Electricity consumption forecasting represents a part of the stable functioning of the power system. It is very important because of rationality and increase of control process efficiency and development planning of all aspects of society. On a scientific basis, forecasting is a possible way to solve problems. Among different models that have been used in the area of forecasting, the stochastic aspect of forecasting as a part of quantitative models takes a very important place in applications. ARIMA models and Kalman filter as stochastic estimators have been treated together for electricity consumption forecasting. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to present the stochastic forecasting aspect using short time series. (author)
Sun, Bo; Liao, Baopeng; Li, Mengmeng; Ren, Yi; Feng, Qiang; Yang, Dezhen
2018-03-27
In the degradation process, the randomness and multiplicity of variables are difficult to describe by mathematical models. However, they are common in engineering and cannot be neglected, so it is necessary to study this issue in depth. In this paper, the copper bending pipe in seawater piping systems is taken as the analysis object, and the time-variant reliability is calculated by solving the interference of limit strength and maximum stress. We did degradation experiments and tensile experiments on copper material, and obtained the limit strength at each time. In addition, degradation experiments on copper bending pipe were done and the thickness at each time has been obtained, then the response of maximum stress was calculated by simulation. Further, with the help of one kind of Monte Carlo method we propose, the time-variant reliability of copper bending pipe was calculated based on the stochastic degradation process and interference theory. Compared with traditional methods and verified by maintenance records, the results show that the time-variant reliability model based on the stochastic degradation process proposed in this paper has better applicability in the reliability analysis, and it can be more convenient and accurate to predict the replacement cycle of copper bending pipe under seawater-active corrosion.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bo Sun
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In the degradation process, the randomness and multiplicity of variables are difficult to describe by mathematical models. However, they are common in engineering and cannot be neglected, so it is necessary to study this issue in depth. In this paper, the copper bending pipe in seawater piping systems is taken as the analysis object, and the time-variant reliability is calculated by solving the interference of limit strength and maximum stress. We did degradation experiments and tensile experiments on copper material, and obtained the limit strength at each time. In addition, degradation experiments on copper bending pipe were done and the thickness at each time has been obtained, then the response of maximum stress was calculated by simulation. Further, with the help of one kind of Monte Carlo method we propose, the time-variant reliability of copper bending pipe was calculated based on the stochastic degradation process and interference theory. Compared with traditional methods and verified by maintenance records, the results show that the time-variant reliability model based on the stochastic degradation process proposed in this paper has better applicability in the reliability analysis, and it can be more convenient and accurate to predict the replacement cycle of copper bending pipe under seawater-active corrosion.
Forward, backward, and weighted stochastic bridges
Drummond, Peter D.
2017-10-01
We define stochastic bridges as conditional distributions of stochastic paths that leave a specified point in phase-space in the past and arrive at another one in the future. These can be defined relative to either forward or backward stochastic differential equations and with the inclusion of arbitrary path-dependent weights. The underlying stochastic equations are not the same except in linear cases. Accordingly, we generalize the theory of stochastic bridges to include time-reversed and weighted stochastic processes. We show that the resulting stochastic bridges are identical, whether derived from a forward or a backward time stochastic process. A numerical algorithm is obtained to sample these distributions. This technique, which uses partial stochastic equations, is robust and easily implemented. Examples are given, and comparisons are made to previous work. In stochastic equations without a gradient drift, our results confirm an earlier conjecture, while generalizing this to cases with path-dependent weights. An example of a two-dimensional stochastic equation with no potential solution is analyzed and numerically solved. We show how this method can treat unexpectedly large excursions occurring during a tunneling or escape event, in which a system escapes from one quasistable point to arrive at another one at a later time.
Sandell, N. R., Jr.; Athans, M.
1975-01-01
The development of the theory of the finite - state, finite - memory (FSFM) stochastic control problem is discussed. The sufficiency of the FSFM minimum principle (which is in general only a necessary condition) was investigated. By introducing the notion of a signaling strategy as defined in the literature on games, conditions under which the FSFM minimum principle is sufficient were determined. This result explicitly interconnects the information structure of the FSFM problem with its optimality conditions. The min-H algorithm for the FSFM problem was studied. It is demonstrated that a version of the algorithm always converges to a particular type of local minimum termed a person - by - person extremal.
Dubos, Gregory F.; Cornford, Steven
2012-01-01
While the ability to model the state of a space system over time is essential during spacecraft operations, the use of time-based simulations remains rare in preliminary design. The absence of the time dimension in most traditional early design tools can however become a hurdle when designing complex systems whose development and operations can be disrupted by various events, such as delays or failures. As the value delivered by a space system is highly affected by such events, exploring the trade space for designs that yield the maximum value calls for the explicit modeling of time.This paper discusses the use of discrete-event models to simulate spacecraft development schedule as well as operational scenarios and on-orbit resources in the presence of uncertainty. It illustrates how such simulations can be utilized to support trade studies, through the example of a tool developed for DARPA's F6 program to assist the design of "fractionated spacecraft".