WorldWideScience

Sample records for discounted average cost

  1. Life cycle costing with a discount rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, E. C.

    1978-01-01

    This article studies life cycle costing for a capability needed for the indefinite future, and specifically investigates the dependence of optimal policies on the discount rate chosen. The two costs considered are reprocurement cost and maintenance and operations (M and O) cost. The procurement price is assumed known, and the M and O costs are assumed to be a known function, in fact, a non-decreasing function, of the time since last reprocurement. The problem is to choose the optimum reprocurement time so as to minimize the quotient of the total cost over a reprocurement period divided by the period. Or one could assume a discount rate and try to minimize the total discounted costs into the indefinite future. It is shown that the optimum policy in the presence of a small discount rate hardly depends on the discount rate at all, and leads to essentially the same policy as in the case in which discounting is not considered.

  2. Book Discounts and Cost-Plus Pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andresen, David C.

    1974-01-01

    The adoption of cost-plus pricing by a major book jobber may have profound effects on the discounts that libraries receive. The article explains the pricing system and presents a set of graphs for libraries to use to determine its effects. (Author)

  3. Discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, P.M.S.

    1987-01-01

    Discounting is a procedure used to facilitate comparison of investment options where either or both the investment and income are spread out in time. It is based on the observation that under most circumstances a sum of money in the hand is worth more to the holder than the same sum in real terms in the future, because the holder can use the money in the intervening time. As discounting is used widely in economic assessment it is valid to use it for assessing electricity generation by nuclear power or fuel cycle costs. The way in which discounting works is explained, including factors such as risk and non-monetary aspects. The rate of the discount is a matter of government policy. In the United Kingdom it is currently (1986) 5 percent per annum for projects such as hospitals and road building. There is no good reason for this to be different for energy projects. (U.K.)

  4. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  5. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  6. Discounted cost model for condition-based maintenance optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weide, J.A.M. van der; Pandey, M.D.; Noortwijk, J.M. van

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents methods to evaluate the reliability and optimize the maintenance of engineering systems that are damaged by shocks or transients arriving randomly in time and overall degradation is modeled as a cumulative stochastic point process. The paper presents a conceptually clear and comprehensive derivation of formulas for computing the discounted cost associated with a maintenance policy combining both condition-based and age-based criteria for preventive maintenance. The proposed discounted cost model provides a more realistic basis for optimizing the maintenance policies than those based on the asymptotic, non-discounted cost rate criterion.

  7. Dual discounting in cost-benefit analysis for environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kula, Erhun; Evans, David

    2011-01-01

    Discounting has been a long-established intertemporal efficiency tool in cost-benefit analysis which focuses on project selection at communal level with a view to maximising the social welfare. However, with the relentless growth in environmental stress that, in good parts, stems from investment projects the established criterion in discounting appears to be inadequate especially when environmental issues are taken into consideration. This paper looks at how dual focus on efficiency and sustainability can be achieved by using dual discounting, i.e. discounting environmental benefits separately and differently from other costs and benefits and applies this alternative criterion to an afforestation scheme in the United Kingdom which contains carbon sequestration in addition to timber benefits.

  8. Discount rates for social cost benefit analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.A.

    1978-01-01

    The question that this paper addresses is how decisions affecting many citizens should be made when there are uncertain outcomes in the distant future. By distant is meant beyond the lifetimes of individuals alive now. Thus the proposed methodology would apply to many decisions in nuclear energy from the investment in new energy sources such as fusion, to the long-term storage of wastes. Decisions of this type have usually been analyzed using cost benefit analysis. In this case, future outcomes are discounted at the so-called social discount rate. By comparison, the proposed methodology uses information on individual citizen's preferences and willingness to pay to make a future generation better off. The connection between the proposed approach and more traditional discounting techniques is examined using the government decision about storing helium for the future as an example

  9. Discounting in the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme: A critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Mibei, Walter

    2015-07-31

    Discounting future costs and health benefits usually has a large effect on results of cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination because of delays between the initial expenditure in the programme and the health benefits from averting disease. Most guidelines currently recommend discounting both costs and health effects at a positive, constant, common rate back to a common point in time. A review of 84 published economic evaluations of vaccines found that most of them apply these recommendations. However, both technical and normative arguments have been presented for discounting health at a different rate to consumption (differential discounting), discounting at a rate that changes over time (non-constant discounting), discounting intra-generational and inter-generational effects at a different rate (two-stage discounting), and discounting the health gains from an intervention to a different discount year from the time of intervention (delayed discounting). These considerations are particularly acute for vaccines, because their effects can occur in a different generation from the one paying for them, and because the time of vaccination, of infection aversion, and of disease aversion usually differ. Using differential, two-stage or delayed discounting in model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination raises technical challenges, but mechanisms have been proposed to overcome them. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, Chris

    2008-01-01

    Equity weighting has been proposed as a way of allowing welfare equivalents to be included in the social cost of carbon since a dollar to a poor person is worth more than a dollar to a rich one. Here we use the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model to show that the social cost of carbon is higher without equity weights (an elasticity of marginal utility with respect to income of 0) than with them. This might seem counter-intuitive, but it comes about because of the logical link between equity weights and discount rates; as the elasticity goes from 0 to - 0.5 to - 1.0, the social rate of time preference rises, and the drop in present values that results far outweighs the small increase in impacts that equity weights bring. (author)

  11. 77 FR 1743 - Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-11

    ... OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs... Appendix C are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis, including lease-purchase analysis, as specified... (Revised December 2011) Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness, Lease Purchase, and Related Analyses...

  12. 76 FR 7881 - Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-11

    ... OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs... Appendix C are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis, including lease-purchase analysis, as specified... (Revised December 2010) DISCOUNT RATES FOR COST-EFFECTIVENESS, LEASE PURCHASE, AND RELATED ANALYSES...

  13. 78 FR 6140 - Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-29

    ... OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs... in Appendix C are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis, including lease-purchase analysis, as...) Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness, Lease Purchase, and Related Analyses Effective Dates. This appendix...

  14. Discounting and the social cost of carbon: A closer look at uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guo, J.K.; Hepburn, C.; Tol, R.S.J.; Anthoff, D.

    2006-01-01

    Recently, in the economics literature, several papers have put forward arguments for using a declining discount rate in social-cost benefit analysis. This paper examines the impact of employing a declining discount rate on the social cost of carbon-the marginal social damage from a ton of emitted

  15. OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF REWARD DELAYS AND THE DISCOUNTING OF HYPOTHETICAL MONEY AND CIGARETTES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Patrick S.; Herrmann, Evan S.; Johnson, Matthew W.

    2015-01-01

    Humans are reported to discount delayed rewards at lower rates than nonhumans. However, nonhumans are studied in tasks that restrict reinforcement during delays, whereas humans are typically studied in tasks that do not restrict reinforcement during delays. In nonhuman tasks, the opportunity cost of restricted reinforcement during delays may increase delay discounting rates. The present within-subjects study used online crowdsourcing (Amazon Mechanical Turk, or MTurk) to assess the discounting of hypothetical delayed money (and cigarettes in smokers) under four hypothetical framing conditions differing in the availability of reinforcement during delays. At one extreme, participants were free to leave their computer without returning, and engage in any behavior during reward delays (modeling typical human tasks). At the opposite extreme, participants were required to stay at their computer and engage in little other behavior during reward delays (modeling typical nonhuman tasks). Discounting rates increased as an orderly function of opportunity cost. Results also indicated predominantly hyperbolic discounting, the “magnitude effect,” steeper discounting of cigarettes than money, and positive correlations between discounting rates of these commodities. This is the first study to test the effects of opportunity costs on discounting, and suggests that procedural differences may partially account for observed species differences in discounting. PMID:25388973

  16. Method of levelized discounted costs applied in economic evaluation of nuclear power plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Li; Wang Yongqing; Liu Jingquan; Guo Jilin; Liu Wei

    2000-01-01

    The main methods of economic evaluation of bid which are in common use are introduced. The characteristics of levelized discounted cost method and its application are presented. The method of levelized discounted cost is applied to the cost calculation of a 200 MW nuclear heating reactor economic evaluation. The results indicate that the method of levelized discounted costs is simple, feasible and which is considered most suitable for the economic evaluation of various case. The method is suggested which is used in the national economic evaluation

  17. Explicit formulas for the variance of discounted life-cycle cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noortwijk, Jan M. van

    2003-01-01

    In life-cycle costing analyses, optimal design is usually achieved by minimising the expected value of the discounted costs. As well as the expected value, the corresponding variance may be useful for estimating, for example, the uncertainty bounds of the calculated discounted costs. However, general explicit formulas for calculating the variance of the discounted costs over an unbounded time horizon are not yet available. In this paper, explicit formulas for this variance are presented. They can be easily implemented in software to optimise structural design and maintenance management. The use of the mathematical results is illustrated with some examples

  18. Philosophical origins of the social rate of discount in cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, J C

    1990-01-01

    The social rate of discount--that is, the way decision makers today evaluate future consequences of collective activity--raises difficult issues of intergenerational justice. When benefits are discounted at the present rate the United States government requires, serious efforts to promote public health over the long term will fail cost-benefit tests. No consensus exists among theorists to establish fair rates; philosophers support discounting with economic arguments that economists reject, while economists no less paradoxically support the concept using philosophical arguments that philosophers disavow. A new emphasis on the role of consumers' and citizens' time preferences, however, will keep open rather than close debates on the social discount rate.

  19. REFCO83, Nuclear Fuel Cycle Cost Economics Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hermann, O.W.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: REFCO83 utilizes a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis procedure to calculate batch, cycle, and lifetime levelized average nuclear fuel cycle costs. The DCF analysis establishes an energy 'cost' associated with the fuel by requiring that the revenues from the sale of energy be adequate to pay the required return on outstanding capital, to pay all expenses including taxes, and to retire the outstanding investment to zero by the end of the economic life of the set of fuel investments. The program uses reactor mass flow information together with individual fuel cost parameters and utility capital structure and money costs to calculate levelized costs cumulatively through any batch or cycle. 2 - Method of solution: A fuel cycle cost component is considered to be any fuel material purchase, processing cost, or discharge material credit in the complete fuel cycle. The costs for each individual component, i.e. uranium, enrichment, etc., may either be expensed or capitalized for tax purposes or, in the case of waste disposal, the cost may also be made proportional to power production. To properly account for the effect of income taxes, all calculations in REFCO83 are done using 'then' current dollars, including price escalations caused by inflation. The database used for the default values for REFCO83 was taken from the Nuclear Energy Cost Data Base. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The maximum number of fuel batches is 120

  20. Average Costs versus Net Present Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.A. van der Laan (Erwin); R.H. Teunter (Ruud)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWhile the net present value (NPV) approach is widely accepted as the right framework for studying production and inventory control systems, average cost (AC) models are more widely used. For the well known EOQ model it can be verified that (under certain conditions) the AC approach gives

  1. 26 CFR 1.466-1 - Method of accounting for the redemption cost of qualified discount coupons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the coupon. (2) Definitions—(i) Discount coupon. A discount coupon is a sales promotion device used to... 26 Internal Revenue 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Method of accounting for the redemption cost of qualified discount coupons. 1.466-1 Section 1.466-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF...

  2. A Hybrid Dynamic Programming for Solving Fixed Cost Transportation with Discounted Mechanism

    OpenAIRE

    Farhad Ghassemi Tari

    2016-01-01

    The problem of allocating different types of vehicles for transporting a set of products from a manufacturer to its depots/cross docks, in an existing transportation network, to minimize the total transportation costs, is considered. The distribution network involves a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, with a variable transportation cost and a fixed cost in which a discount mechanism is applied on the fixed part of the transportation costs. It is assumed that the number of available vehicles i...

  3. Transactional Problem Content in Cost Discounting: Parallel Effects for Probability and Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Stephen; Oaksford, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Four experiments investigated the effects of transactional content on temporal and probabilistic discounting of costs. Kusev, van Schaik, Ayton, Dent, and Chater (2009) have shown that content other than gambles can alter decision-making behavior even when associated value and probabilities are held constant. Transactions were hypothesized to lead…

  4. Economic rate of discount and estimating cost benefit of viral immunisation programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R

    1999-01-01

    Many individual and societal decisions over purchase (or investment) involve consideration of timing, in that either the price may be paid now and the benefit enjoyed some time in the future or the converse the benefit enjoyed now and the price paid later. Since most individuals generally prefer the present to the future, economic theory has conventionally discounted future costs or benefits to estimate 'net present values'. The rationale for this is principally based on future uncertainty. In recent years, economists have turned their attention to valuing health as an economic 'good'. Observations of individual behaviour would imply that individuals discount future health, as other potential benefits, mostly because there is some uncertainty about their futures. Although economic theory is strongly predicated on the 'sovereignty of the individual', it does not necessarily follow that society discounts the future as do individuals, since for society the future is not so uncertain. Society's endorsement of many public health and preventive medicine objectives, which seek health gains in the future (rather than the present), imply that society's rate of discount may be appreciably lower than that of individuals. In immunisation, arguably one of the most effective of preventive measures, there is the additional benefit to others attributable to herd immunity. This paper argues that the future health gains for society arising from immunisation should not be underestimated by application of inappropriate discounting.

  5. Ordering Cost Reduction in Inventory Model with Defective Items and Backorder Price Discount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karuppuchamy Annadurai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the real market, as unsatisfied demands occur, the longer the length of lead time is, the smaller the proportion of backorder would be. In order to make up for the inconvenience and even the losses of royal and patient customers, the supplier may offer a backorder price discount to secure orders during the shortage period. Also, ordering policies determined by conventional inventory models may be inappropriate for the situation in which an arrival lot contains some defective items. To compensate for the inconvenience of backordering and to secure orders, the supplier may offer a price discount on the stockout item. The purpose of this study is to explore a coordinated inventory model including defective arrivals by allowing the backorder price discount and ordering cost as decision variables. There are two inventory models proposed in this paper, one with normally distributed demand and another with distribution free demand. A computer code using the software Matlab 7.0 is developed to find the optimal solution and present numerical examples to illustrate the models. The results in the numerical examples indicate that the savings of the total cost are realized through ordering cost reduction and backorder price discount.

  6. Concave utility, transaction costs, and risk in measuring discounting of delayed rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Kris N; Santiesteban, Mariana

    2003-01-01

    Research has consistently found that the decline in the present values of delayed rewards as delay increases is better fit by hyperbolic than by exponential delay-discounting functions. However, concave utility, transaction costs, and risk each could produce hyperbolic-looking data, even when the underlying discounting function is exponential. In Experiments 1 (N = 45) and 2 (N = 103), participants placed bids indicating their present values of real future monetary rewards in computer-based 2nd-price auctions. Both experiments suggest that utility is not sufficiently concave to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions. Experiment 2 provided no evidence that the effects of transaction costs and risk are large enough to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions.

  7. On multiple discount rates

    OpenAIRE

    Chambers, Christopher P.; Echenique, Federico

    2016-01-01

    We propose a theory of intertemporal choice that is robust to specific assumptions on the discount rate. One class of models requires that one utility stream be chosen over another if and only if its discounted value is higher for all discount factors in a set. Another model focuses on an average discount factor. Yet another model is pessimistic, and evaluates a flow by the lowest available discounted value.

  8. Influence of the discount rate when comparing costs of different nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Dars, A.; Loaec, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    The article describes the methodology and technical economic results obtained by Cea in the DERECO project. This project was aimed at evaluating ground-breaking and intricate scenarios of the nuclear fuel cycle, and developed on the long term (150 years), in the context of France. All 5 scenarios studied assume that the reliance on nuclear energy will continue in order to satisfy the electricity demand. Despite uncertainties, the trends are breaking free from the analysis. It appears that the scenarios in which fourth generation fast reactors take part are globally more economical than the keeping to the present strategy of plutonium mono-recycling in PWR. The scenario in which fuel reprocessing is stopped has a total cost concerning the fuel cycle similar to that of the present strategy but the disposal cost is twice as high because of the necessity of disposing spent fuels directly in geological formations. The comparative costs of the different scenarios are set out and the influence of the discount rate is highlighted. One must keep in mind that the actualization theory entails a diminishing value for long term costs due to an unavoidable mechanical effect of the discount rate

  9. PACTOLUS, Nuclear Power Plant Cost and Economics by Discounted Cash Flow Method. CLOTHO, Mass Flow Data Calculation for Program PACTOLUS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haffner, D.R.

    1976-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: PACTOLUS is a code for computing nuclear power costs using the discounted cash flow method. The cash flows are generated from input unit costs, time schedules and burnup data. CLOTHO calculates and communicates to PACTOLUS mass flow data to match a specified load factor history. 2 - Method of solution: Plant lifetime power costs are calculated using the discounted cash flow method. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 40 annual time periods into which all costs and mass flows are accumulated, 20 isotopic mass flows charged into and discharged from the reactor model

  10. 18 CFR 301.7 - Average System Cost methodology functionalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Average System Cost... REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS FOR FEDERAL POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS AVERAGE SYSTEM COST METHODOLOGY FOR SALES FROM UTILITIES TO BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION UNDER NORTHWEST POWER...

  11. Discounting and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, P.M.S.

    1984-01-01

    The paper describes the practice of discounting and its applicability to nuclear power, and the choice of discount rates. Opportunity cost of capital; risk; social time preference; intergenerational equity; non-monetary aspects; and discounting and nuclear energy; are all discussed. (U.K.)

  12. A Hybrid Dynamic Programming for Solving Fixed Cost Transportation with Discounted Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Ghassemi Tari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of allocating different types of vehicles for transporting a set of products from a manufacturer to its depots/cross docks, in an existing transportation network, to minimize the total transportation costs, is considered. The distribution network involves a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, with a variable transportation cost and a fixed cost in which a discount mechanism is applied on the fixed part of the transportation costs. It is assumed that the number of available vehicles is limited for some types. A mathematical programming model in the form of the discrete nonlinear optimization model is proposed. A hybrid dynamic programming algorithm is developed for finding the optimal solution. To increase the computational efficiency of the solution algorithm, several concepts and routines, such as the imbedded state routine, surrogate constraint concept, and bounding schemes, are incorporated in the dynamic programming algorithm. A real world case problem is selected and solved by the proposed solution algorithm, and the optimal solution is obtained.

  13. Application of the discounted value flows method in production cost calculations for Czechoslovak nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majer, P.

    1990-01-01

    The fundamentals are outlined of the discounted value flows method, which is used in industrial countries for calculating the specific electricity production costs. Actual calculations were performed for the first two units of the Temelin nuclear power plant. All costs associated with the construction, operation and decommissioning of this nuclear power plant were taken into account. With a high degree of certainty, the specific production costs of the Temelin nuclear power plant will lie within the range of 0.32 to 0.36 CSK/kWh. Nearly all results of the sensitivity analysis performed for the possible changes in the input values fall within this range. An increase in the interest rate to above 8% is an exception; this, however, can be regarded as rather improbable on a long-term basis. Sensitivity analysis gave evidence that the results of the electricity production cost calculations for the Temelin nuclear power plant can be considered sufficiently stable. (Z.M.). 7 figs., 2 tabs., 14 refs

  14. Discounting in Economic Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; Claxton, Karl

    2018-05-19

    Appropriate discounting rules in economic evaluations have received considerable attention in the literature and in national guidelines for economic evaluations. Rightfully so, as discounting can be quite influential on the outcomes of economic evaluations. The most prominent controversies regarding discounting involve the basis for and height of the discount rate, whether costs and effects should be discounted at the same rate, and whether discount rates should decline or stay constant over time. Moreover, the choice for discount rules depends on the decision context one adopts as the most relevant. In this article, we review these issues and debates, and describe and discuss the current discounting recommendations of the countries publishing their national guidelines. We finish the article by proposing a research agenda.

  15. Solving lot-sizing problem with quantity discount and transportation cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Amy H. I.; Kang, He-Yau; Lai, Chun-Mei

    2013-04-01

    Owing to today's increasingly competitive market and ever-changing manufacturing environment, the inventory problem is becoming more complicated to solve. The incorporation of heuristics methods has become a new trend to tackle the complex problem in the past decade. This article considers a lot-sizing problem, and the objective is to minimise total costs, where the costs include ordering, holding, purchase and transportation costs, under the requirement that no inventory shortage is allowed in the system. We first formulate the lot-sizing problem as a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. Next, an efficient genetic algorithm (GA) model is constructed for solving large-scale lot-sizing problems. An illustrative example with two cases in a touch panel manufacturer is used to illustrate the practicality of these models, and a sensitivity analysis is applied to understand the impact of the changes in parameters to the outcomes. The results demonstrate that both the MIP model and the GA model are effective and relatively accurate tools for determining the replenishment for touch panel manufacturing for multi-periods with quantity discount and batch transportation. The contributions of this article are to construct an MIP model to obtain an optimal solution when the problem is not too complicated itself and to present a GA model to find a near-optimal solution efficiently when the problem is complicated.

  16. Size and emotion averaging: costs of dividing attention after all.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, John; Oriet, Chris; Tottenham, Laurie Sykes

    2012-03-01

    Perceptual averaging is a process by which sets of similar items are represented by summary statistics such as their average size, luminance, or orientation. Researchers have argued that this process is automatic, able to be carried out without interference from concurrent processing. Here, we challenge this conclusion and demonstrate a reliable cost of computing the mean size of circles distinguished by colour (Experiments 1 and 2) and the mean emotionality of faces distinguished by sex (Experiment 3). We also test the viability of two strategies that could have allowed observers to guess the correct response without computing the average size or emotionality of both sets concurrently. We conclude that although two means can be computed concurrently, doing so incurs a cost of dividing attention.

  17. Intergenerational discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, T.C.

    1995-01-01

    A ''discount rate'' for the consumption of future generations from current investments for their benefit is typically composed of two parts: ''time preference'' and an allowance for the lower marginal utility of consumption due to higher average levels of consumption in the future. Time preference would be involved if one were postponing one's own consumption; it has little or nothing to do with income redistribution, which is what greenhouse abatement is about. A lower marginal utility of consumption is an anomaly in income redistribution: we rarely deliberately transfer consumption from the less to the more well-to-do. Time may serve as a kind of measure of distance; we may prefer beneficiaries who are closer in time, in geographical distance, in culture, surely in kinship. Perhaps to keep our thinking straight we should use a term like ''depreciation'', rather than ''discounting''. (Author)

  18. Discounting in Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the issue of discounting in weighted timed transition systems. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite runs and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. We show that when postulating a certain natural additivity property for the ......This paper deals with the issue of discounting in weighted timed transition systems. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite runs and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. We show that when postulating a certain natural additivity property...

  19. Cost Conscious: Incentive and Discount Programs Help Students Meet the Rising Cost of a Community College Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullman, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    Aware that rising costs could force some community colleges to compromise their long-standing open-door policies, administrators have put in place programs and incentives to offset the higher price of the average community college education. This article features ideas and programs to help struggling community colleges cope with rising costs such…

  20. Value of the future: Discounting in random environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Geanakoplos, John; Masoliver, Jaume; Montero, Miquel; Perelló, Josep

    2015-05-01

    We analyze how to value future costs and benefits when they must be discounted relative to the present. We introduce the subject for the nonspecialist and take into account the randomness of the economic evolution by studying the discount function of three widely used processes for the dynamics of interest rates: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, Feller, and log-normal. Besides obtaining exact expressions for the discount function and simple asymptotic approximations, we show that historical average interest rates overestimate long-run discount rates and that this effect can be large. In other words, long-run discount rates should be substantially less than the average rate observed in the past, otherwise any cost-benefit calculation would be biased in favor of the present and against interventions that may protect the future.

  1. Decomposing the social discount rate

    OpenAIRE

    Scarborough, Helen

    2010-01-01

    Recent modelling of the costs and benefits of climate change has renewed debate surrounding assumptions regarding the social discount rate in analysing the impacts of environmental change. Previous literature segments the social discount rate into being influenced by two key factors; the rate of pure time preference and the elasticity of marginal utility of future consumption. These components of the social discount rate reinforce the linkages between the choice of social discount rate and in...

  2. The Individual Health Discount Rate in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waljee, Akbar K.; Morris, Arden M.; Waljee, Jennifer F.; Higgins, Peter D.R.

    2015-01-01

    Background In cost-effectiveness analysis, discount rates are used in calculating the value of future costs and benefits. However, standard discount rates may not accurately describe the decision-making of patients with Ulcerative Colitis (UC). These patients often choose the long-term risks of immunosuppressive therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy, demonstrating very high discount rates for future health. In this study, we aimed to measure the discount rate in UC patients and identify variables associated with the discount rate. Methods We surveyed patients with UC and patients who were post-colectomy for UC to measure their valuations of UC and colectomy health states. We used Standard Gamble(SG) and Time-Trade-Off(TTO) methods to assess current and future health state valuations, and calculated the discount rate. Results Participants included 150 subjects with UC and 150 subjects who were post-colectomy for UC. Discount rates varied widely (20.6%–100%) with an overall median rate of 55.0%, which was significantly higher than the standard rate of 5%. Older age and male gender and predicted high discount rates (aversion to immediate risk in favor of distant future risk). For each additional decade of age, patients’ expected discount rate increased by 0.77%. Female gender was the only predictor of very low discount rates. Female patients’ discount rates averaged 8.1% less than age-matched males. Conclusions The accepted discount rate of 5% grossly underestimates UC patients’ preference for long-term over short-term risk. This might explain UC patients’ frequent choice of the long-term risks of immunosuppressive medical therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy. PMID:21560195

  3. Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands: the impact of varying the discount rate for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M; Brouwers, Jacobus R B J; Postma, Maarten J

    2009-02-05

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be profound for vaccines. When applying the current discount rate of 1.5% for health, the expected cost-effectiveness of HP vaccination is estimated below the informal Dutch threshold of euro 20,000/LYG when the HP prevalence is assumed > or =20% in the Dutch population. In conclusion, we showed that HP vaccination could possibly be a cost-effective intervention. However, this depends to a large extend on the prevalence of HP in the population. Furthermore, we showed the large impact of the discount rate for health on the cost-effectiveness of a HP vaccination program, illustrative for other vaccination programs.

  4. Comment 2 on workshop in economics - issues in benefit-cost analysis: Amplification channels and discounting long-term environmental damages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    Many environmental problems have long-term effects. Acid rain has long-term effects on soils, forests, and exposed materials. Global climate change has even longer-term effects. This difference in timing - between the near-term cost of environmental protection and the long-term environmental effects - makes it difficult to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of any program designed to abate environmental damages. The rate at which to discount long-term environmental damages becomes a key question in comparisons of benefits and costs. This comment points out an important facet of the discounting issue. The discount rate for calculating the present value of future environmental benefits may be much lower than the rate of return on investment. Cost-benefit analysis is a framework in which to evaluate policies and decisions. Because global climate change is a complex problem, extensions of cost-benefit theory can be expected to add additional insights, particularly in the following areas: distinguishing distributional effects among nations, over time, and among generations; determining the rate of discount that is appropriate for long-term environmental damages and separating risk aspects from the rate of discount; and assessing amplification effects when policies involve large expenditures relative to the economy or when affected sectors are significant sectors of the economy

  5. Individual health discount rate in patients with ulcerative colitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waljee, Akbar K; Morris, Arden M; Waljee, Jennifer F; Higgins, Peter D R

    2011-06-01

    In cost-effectiveness analysis, discount rates are used in calculating the value of future costs and benefits. However, standard discount rates may not accurately describe the decision-making of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). These patients often choose the long-term risks of immunosuppressive therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy, demonstrating very high discount rates for future health. In this study we aimed to measure the discount rate in UC patients and identify variables associated with the discount rate. We surveyed patients with UC and patients who were postcolectomy for UC to measure their valuations of UC and colectomy health states. We used Standard Gamble (SG) and Time-Trade-Off (TTO) methods to assess current and future health state valuations and calculated the discount rate. Participants included 150 subjects with UC and 150 subjects who were postcolectomy for UC. Adjusted discount rates varied widely (0%-100%), with an overall median rate of 55.0% (interquartile range [IQR] 20.6-100), which was significantly higher than the standard rate of 5%. Within the normal range of discount rates, patients' expected discount rate increased by 0.80% for each additional year of age, and female patients had discount rates that averaged ≈ 8% less than their age-matched counterparts and approached statistical significance. The accepted discount rate of 5% grossly underestimates UC patients' preference for long-term over short-term risk. This might explain UC patients' frequent choice of the long-term risks of immunosuppressive medical therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy. Copyright © 2010 Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc.

  6. Discounting Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    2014-01-01

    We re-evaluate the theory, experimental design and econometrics behind claims that individuals exhibit non-constant discounting behavior. Theory points to the importance of controlling for the non-linearity of the utility function of individuals, since the discount rate is defined over time-dated...

  7. Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands : The impact of varying the discount rate for health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M.; Brouwers, Jacobus R. B. J.; Postma, Maarten J.

    2009-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be

  8. 42 CFR 100.2 - Average cost of a health insurance policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Average cost of a health insurance policy. 100.2... VACCINE INJURY COMPENSATION § 100.2 Average cost of a health insurance policy. For purposes of determining..., less certain deductions. One of the deductions is the average cost of a health insurance policy, as...

  9. Costs and effectiveness of fingolimod versus alemtuzumab in the treatment of highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the UK: re-treatment, discount, and disutility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Stephen M; Kusel, Jeanette; Nicholas, Richard; Adlard, Nicholas

    2017-09-01

    Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with disease modifying therapies (DMTs) who continue to experience disease activity may be considered for escalation therapies such as fingolimod, or may be considered for alemtuzumab. Previous economic modeling used Markov models; applying one alternative technique, discrete event simulation (DES) modeling, allows re-treatment and long-term adverse events (AEs) to be included in the analysis. A DES was adapted to model relapse-triggered re-treatment with alemtuzumab and the effect of including ongoing quality-adjusted life year (QALY) decrements for AEs that extend beyond previous 1-year Markov cycles. As the price to the NHS of fingolimod in the UK is unknown, due to a confidential patient access scheme (PAS), a variety of possible discounts were tested. The interaction of re-treatment assumptions for alemtuzumab with the possible discounts for fingolimod was tested to determine which DMT resulted in lower lifetime costs. The lifetime QALY results were derived from modeled treatment effect and short- and long-term AEs. Most permutations of fingolimod PAS discount and alemtuzumab re-treatment rate resulted in fingolimod being less costly than alemtuzumab. As the percentage of patients who are re-treated with alemtuzumab due to experiencing a relapse approaches 100% of those who relapse whilst on treatment, the discount required for fingolimod to be less costly drops below 5%. Consideration of treatment effect alone found alemtuzumab generated 0.2 more QALYs/patient; the inclusion of AEs up to a duration of 1 year reduced this advantage to only 0.14 QALYs/patient. Modeling AEs with a lifetime QALY decrement found that both DMTs generated very similar QALYs with the difference only 0.04 QALYs/patient. When the model captured alemtuzumab re-treatment and long-term AE decrements, it was found that fingolimod is cost-effective compared to alemtuzumab, assuming application of only a modest level of

  10. Subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruderer Enzler, Heidi; Diekmann, Andreas; Meyer, Reto

    2014-01-01

    Why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms? Subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight, but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population. With regard to behavior, persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates. Based on a representative nation-wide study, the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007, and a follow-up survey, our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years. Income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates. Contrary to expectations, we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior. - Highlights: • Results of a large panel study in Switzerland. • Mean subjective discount rates in population are well above market interest rates. • Subjective discount rates are moderately stable over four years. • Theory suggests impact of subjective discount rates on energy saving behavior. • However, subjective discount rates do not contribute to explanation of energy saving behavior

  11. Intergenerational equity and the social discount rate

    OpenAIRE

    Scarborough, Helen

    2011-01-01

    Recent modelling of the costs and benefits of climate change has renewed debate regarding assumptions for the social discount rate in analysing the impacts of environmental change. Previous literature suggests two key factors influence estimates of the social discount rate: the rate of pure time preference and the elasticity of marginal utility of future consumption. These components of the social discount rate reinforce the linkages between the choice of social discount rate and intergenerat...

  12. 76 FR 13168 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-10

    ... average unit costs of residential energy in a Federal Register notice entitled, ``Energy Conservation... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency...

  13. 78 FR 17648 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-22

    ... Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy'', dated April 26, 2012... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency...

  14. Towards a healthier discount procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klock, Rogier M; Brouwer, Werner Bf; Annemans, Lieven Jp; Bos, Jasper M; Postma, Maarten J

    2005-02-01

    Most national guidelines for pharmacoeconomic research prescribe discounting, mostly of money and health against the same rate. There is much debate on whether this is adequate. Two theoretical arguments, the consistency argument of Weinstein and Stason, and the paralyzing paradox of Keeler and Cretin, are mostly responsible for the current standards. However, more recently, several authors have indicated that the basis to claim the necessity of using similar discount rates is rather weak, both practically and theoretically. In terms of finding a new theoretical basis on which to base discount rates for money and, in particular, health, Van Hout has made an important suggestion arguing that the discount rate for health could be based on the expected growth in life expectancy and the diminishing marginal utility related to such additional health. Similarly, Gravelle and Smith argue that if the value of health grows over time, discount rates that are used for costs cannot directly be applied to effects, but should be adjusted downwards.

  15. The average cost of pressure ulcer management in a community dwelling spinal cord injury population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Brian C; Nanwa, Natasha; Mittmann, Nicole; Bryant, Dianne; Coyte, Peter C; Houghton, Pamela E

    2013-08-01

    Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a common secondary complication experienced by community dwelling individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). There is a paucity of literature on the health economic impact of PU in SCI population from a societal perspective. The objective of this study was to determine the resource use and costs in 2010 Canadian dollars of a community dwelling SCI individual experiencing a PU from a societal perspective. A non-comparative cost analysis was conducted on a cohort of community dwelling SCI individuals from Ontario, Canada. Medical resource use was recorded over the study period. Unit costs associated with these resources were collected from publicly available sources and published literature. Average monthly cost was calculated based on 7-month follow-up. Costs were stratified by age, PU history, severity level, location of SCI, duration of current PU and PU surface area. Sensitivity analyses were also carried out. Among the 12 study participants, total average monthly cost per community dwelling SCI individual with a PU was $4745. Hospital admission costs represented the greatest percentage of the total cost (62%). Sensitivity analysis showed that the total average monthly costs were most sensitive to variations in hospitalisation costs. © 2012 The Authors. International Wound Journal © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Medicalhelplines.com Inc.

  16. Estimating average inpatient and outpatient costs and childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea treatment costs in an urban health centre in Zambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chola Lumbwe

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Millions of children die every year in developing countries, from preventable diseases such as pneumonia and diarrhoea, owing to low levels of investment in child health. Investment efforts are hampered by a general lack of adequate information that is necessary for priority setting in this sector. This paper measures the health system costs of providing inpatient and outpatient services, and also the costs associated with treating pneumonia and diarrhoea in under-five children at a health centre in Zambia. Methods Annual economic and financial cost data were collected in 2005-2006. Data were summarized in a Microsoft excel spreadsheet to obtain total department costs and average disease treatment costs. Results The total annual cost of operating the health centre was US$1,731,661 of which US$1 284 306 and US$447,355 were patient care and overhead departments costs, respectively. The average cost of providing out-patient services was US$3 per visit, while the cost of in-patient treatment was US$18 per bed day. The cost of providing dental services was highest at US$20 per visit, and the cost of VCT services was lowest, with US$1 per visit. The cost per out-patient visit for under-five pneumonia was US$48, while the cost per bed day was US$215. The cost per outpatient visit attributed to under-five diarrhoea was US$26, and the cost per bed day was US$78. Conclusion In the face of insufficient data, a cost analysis exercise is a difficult but feasible undertaking. The study findings are useful and applicable in similar settings, and can be used in cost effectiveness analyses of health interventions.

  17. The average cost of measles cases and adverse events following vaccination in industrialised countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kou Ulla

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Even though the annual incidence rate of measles has dramatically decreased in industrialised countries since the implementation of universal immunisation programmes, cases continue to occur in countries where endemic measles transmission has been interrupted and in countries where adequate levels of immunisation coverage have not been maintained. The objective of this study is to develop a model to estimate the average cost per measles case and per adverse event following measles immunisation using the Netherlands (NL, the United Kingdom (UK and Canada as examples. Methods Parameter estimates were based on a review of the published literature. A decision tree was built to represent the complications associated with measles cases and adverse events following imminisation. Monte-Carlo Simulation techniques were used to account for uncertainty. Results From the perspective of society, we estimated the average cost per measles case to be US$276, US$307 and US$254 for the NL, the UK and Canada, respectively, and the average cost of adverse events following immunisation per vaccinee to be US$1.43, US$1.93 and US$1.51 for the NL, UK and Canada, respectively. Conclusions These average cost estimates could be combined with incidence estimates and costs of immunisation programmes to provide estimates of the cost of measles to industrialised countries. Such estimates could be used as a basis to estimate the potential economic gains of global measles eradication.

  18. 44 CFR 353.5 - Average cost per FEMA professional staff-hour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Average cost per FEMA professional staff-hour. 353.5 Section 353.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... of exercise objectives and scenarios, pre-exercise logistics, exercise conduct and participation...

  19. The calculation of costs of postal network and universal postal service based on standard and average cost principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blagojević Mladenka Z.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The provision of universal postal service involves high costs for operator, especially in rural areas. The aim of this paper is to propose and test tool for managing the cost of providing universal postal service and maintaining the postal network in order to facilitate understanding of the problem in the sector. The proposed approach use standard prices and standard quantities (the redefined number of postal units, the number of employees, etc. as well as average costs for calculation of the costs of the universal postal service and postal network. The methodology provides the efficiency analysis, benchmarking and identification of causes of poor performance of management and resource allocation. It can be used for postal operators that do not have modern accounting systems.

  20. Average System Cost Methodology : Administrator's Record of Decision.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1984-06-01

    Significant features of average system cost (ASC) methodology adopted are: retention of the jurisdictional approach where retail rate orders of regulartory agencies provide primary data for computing the ASC for utilities participating in the residential exchange; inclusion of transmission costs; exclusion of construction work in progress; use of a utility's weighted cost of debt securities; exclusion of income taxes; simplification of separation procedures for subsidized generation and transmission accounts from other accounts; clarification of ASC methodology rules; more generous review timetable for individual filings; phase-in of reformed methodology; and each exchanging utility must file under the new methodology within 20 days of implementation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of the ten major participating utilities, the revised ASC will substantially only affect three. (PSB)

  1. Discount-Optimal Infinite Runs in Priced Timed Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new discounting semantics for priced timed automata. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite traces and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. In the discounting semantics, prices decrease exponentially, so that the contribution...

  2. Barrier-relevant crash modification factors and average costs of crashes on arterial roads in Indiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yaotian; Tarko, Andrew P

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to develop crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimate the average crash costs applicable to a wide range of road-barrier scenarios that involved three types of road barriers (concrete barriers, W-beam guardrails, and high-tension cable barriers) to produce a suitable basis for comparing barrier-oriented design alternatives and road improvements. The intention was to perform the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis allowed by the cross-sectional method and the crash data available in Indiana. To accomplish this objective and to use the available data efficiently, the effects of barrier were estimated on the frequency of barrier-relevant (BR) crashes, the types of harmful events and their occurrence during a BR crash, and the severity of BR crash outcomes. The harmful events component added depth to the analysis by connecting the crash onset with its outcome. Further improvement of the analysis was accomplished by considering the crash outcome severity of all the individuals involved in a crash and not just drivers, utilizing hospital data, and pairing the observations with and without road barriers along same or similar road segments to better control the unobserved heterogeneity. This study confirmed that the total number of BR crashes tended to be higher where medians had installed barriers, mainly due to collisions with barriers and, in some cases, with other vehicles after redirecting vehicles back to traffic. These undesirable effects of barriers were surpassed by the positive results of reducing cross-median crashes, rollover events, and collisions with roadside hazards. The average cost of a crash (unit cost) was reduced by 50% with cable barriers installed in medians wider than 50ft. A similar effect was concluded for concrete barriers and guardrails installed in medians narrower than 50ft. The studied roadside guardrails also reduced the unit cost by 20%-30%. Median cable barriers were found to be the most effective

  3. 77 FR 801 - National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program: Revised Amount of the Average Cost of a Health...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Health Resources and Services Administration National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program: Revised Amount of the Average Cost of a Health Insurance Policy The Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) is publishing an updated monetary amount of the average cost of a health insurance policy as it...

  4. Discounted Duration Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ody, Heinrich; Fränzle, Martin; Hansen, Michael Reichhardt

    2016-01-01

    To formally reason about the temporal quality of systems discounting was introduced to CTL and LTL. However, these logic are discrete and they cannot express duration properties. In this work we introduce discounting for a variant of Duration Calculus. We prove decidability of model checking...... for a useful fragment of discounted Duration Calculus formulas on timed automata under mild assumptions. Further, we provide an extensive example to show the usefulness of the fragment....

  5. Discounting and Expropriation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...

  6. Parabolic discounting of monetary rewards by physical effort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, M.N.; Hager, O.M.; Tobler, P.N.; Kaiser, S.

    2013-01-01

    When humans and other animals make decisions in their natural environments prospective rewards have to be weighed against costs. It is well established that increasing costs lead to devaluation or discounting of reward. While our knowledge about discount functions for time and probability costs is

  7. Estimating Discount Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Booth

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.

  8. The impact of hospital market structure on patient volume, average length of stay, and the cost of care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, J C; Luft, H S

    1985-12-01

    A variety of recent proposals rely heavily on market forces as a means of controlling hospital cost inflation. Sceptics argue, however, that increased competition might lead to cost-increasing acquisitions of specialized clinical services and other forms of non-price competition as means of attracting physicians and patients. Using data from hospitals in 1972 we analyzed the impact of market structure on average hospital costs, measured in terms of both cost per patient and cost per patient day. Under the retrospective reimbursement system in place at the time, hospitals in more competitive environments exhibited significantly higher costs of production than did those in less competitive environments.

  9. A novel multi-item joint replenishment problem considering multiple type discounts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligang Cui

    Full Text Available In business replenishment, discount offers of multi-item may either provide different discount schedules with a single discount type, or provide schedules with multiple discount types. The paper investigates the joint effects of multiple discount schemes on the decisions of multi-item joint replenishment. In this paper, a joint replenishment problem (JRP model, considering three discount (all-unit discount, incremental discount, total volume discount offers simultaneously, is constructed to determine the basic cycle time and joint replenishment frequencies of multi-item. To solve the proposed problem, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to find the optimal solutions and the corresponding total cost of the JRP model. Numerical experiment is performed to test the algorithm and the computational results of JRPs under different discount combinations show different significance in the replenishment cost reduction.

  10. Average cost per person victimized by an intimate partner of the opposite gender: a comparison of men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Ileana; Corso, Phaedra

    2005-08-01

    Differences in prevalence, injury, and utilization of services between female and male victims of intimate partner violence (IPV) have been noted. However, there are no studies indicating approximate costs of men's IPV victimization. This study explored gender differences in service utilization for physical IPV injuries and average cost per person victimized by an intimate partner of the opposite gender. Significantly more women than men reported physical IPV victimization and related injuries. A greater proportion of women than men reported seeking mental health services and reported more visits on average in response to physical IPV victimization. Women were more likely than men to report using emergency department, inpatient hospital, and physician services, and were more likely than men to take time off from work and from childcare or household duties because of their injuries. The total average per person cost for women experiencing at least one physical IPV victimization was more than twice the average per person cost for men.

  11. Pathways of low carbon transition at the lowest cost. Pathways of low carbon transition in France at the lowest cost - Dynamics and average abatement costs (MACC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Foussard, Alexis

    2016-11-01

    The objective to divide greenhouse gas emissions in France by a factor four by 2050 implies the mobilisation at the lowest cost of the whole set of known sources of reduction of emissions in all economic sectors. In this context, this report is based on a methodology (D-CAM in French for dynamics - average abatement costs, MACC in English for Medium Abatement Cost Curves) which relies on a theoretical business-as-usual scenario, on a database on the potential, rate of development, and cost of mobilizable sources, and on a dynamic model of cost minimisation. The MACC tool is used to explore, for each sector, scenarios of de-carbonation which allow objectives of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to be reached at different time horizons. An aggregated approach of this tool modifies the distribution of efforts of emission reduction between sectors with respect to a sector-based approach. Thus, a macro-assessment of low carbon transition does not reveal any obvious over-cost with respect to the business-as-usual scenario. A second document is a Power Point presentation which contains the same information, curves and graphs

  12. Survey of time preference, delay discounting models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Doyle

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper surveys over twenty models of delay discounting (also known as temporal discounting, time preference, time discounting, that psychologists and economists have put forward to explain the way people actually trade off time and money. Using little more than the basic algebra of powers and logarithms, I show how the models are derived, what assumptions they are based upon, and how different models relate to each other. Rather than concentrate only on discount functions themselves, I show how discount functions may be manipulated to isolate rate parameters for each model. This approach, consistently applied, helps focus attention on the three main components in any discounting model: subjectively perceived money; subjectively perceived time; and how these elements are combined. We group models by the number of parameters that have to be estimated, which means our exposition follows a trajectory of increasing complexity to the models. However, as the story unfolds it becomes clear that most models fall into a smaller number of families. We also show how new models may be constructed by combining elements of different models. The surveyed models are: Exponential; Hyperbolic; Arithmetic; Hyperboloid (Green and Myerson, Rachlin; Loewenstein and Prelec Generalized Hyperboloid; quasi-Hyperbolic (also known as beta-delta discounting; Benhabib et al's fixed cost; Benhabib et al's Exponential / Hyperbolic / quasi-Hyperbolic; Read's discounting fractions; Roelofsma's exponential time; Scholten and Read's discounting-by-intervals (DBI; Ebert and Prelec's constant sensitivity (CS; Bleichrodt et al.'s constant absolute decreasing impatience (CADI; Bleichrodt et al.'s constant relative decreasing impatience (CRDI; Green, Myerson, and Macaux's hyperboloid over intervals models; Killeen's additive utility; size-sensitive additive utility; Yi, Landes, and Bickel's memory trace models; McClure et al.'s two exponentials; and Scholten and Read's trade

  13. Accounting conventions for discounting in the optimisation of protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleishman, A.B.

    1983-01-01

    Some of the implications which arise from the use of accounting conventions in the cost benefit framework for optimization of radiation protection are briefly examined. Some accounting techniques which appear not to discount future detriment costs do so, in fact, at a hidden fixed rate; others give a free choice over whether to discount and at what rate. (U.K.)

  14. Values in Time Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilmann, Conrad

    2017-10-01

    Controversies about time discounting loom large in decisions about climate change. Prominently, a particularly controversial debate about time discounting in climate change decision-making has been conducted within climate economics, between the authors of Stern et al. (Stern review on the economics of climate change, 2006) and their critics (most prominently Dasgupta in Comments on the Stern review's economics of climate change, 2006; Tol in Energy Environ 17(6):977-981, 2006; Weitzman in J Econ Lit XLV:703-724, 2007; Nordhaus in J Econ Lit XLV:686-702, 2007). The article examines the role of values in this debate. Firstly, it is shown that time discounting is a case in which values are key because it is at heart an ethical problem. Secondly, it is argued that time discounting in climate economics is a case of economists making frequent and routine references to ethical values and indeed conduct ethical debates with each other. Thirdly, it is argued that there is evidence for deep and pervasive entanglement between facts and values in the prevalent methodologies for time discounting. Finally, it is argued that this means that economists have given up the 'value-free ideal' concerning time discounting, and discussed how the current methodology of time discounting in economics can be improved.

  15. The average unit production cost of blood in Zimbabwe from a provider's perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mafirakureva, N.; Nyoni, H.; Chikwereti, R.; Khoza, S.; Mvere, D.A.; Emmanuel, J.C.; Postma, M.J.; Van Hulst, M.

    2014-01-01

    Background/Case Studies: Blood utilization and blood transfusion costs are generally perceived to be increasing at a time when healthcare budgets continue being constricted. There is a paucity of published data on the production costs of blood and the costs of blood transfusion in sub-Saharan

  16. 18 CFR 301.5 - Changes in Average System Cost methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS FOR FEDERAL POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS AVERAGE... customers, or from three-quarters of Bonneville's direct-service industrial customers may initiate a...

  17. Open access discount information

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Lauren Doyle

    Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. Wiley offers OA in: Gold: ... International Journal of Health Services. Journal of ... Camridge University Press offers waivers and discounts based on: 1) Authors of ... based on the World Bank list.

  18. Can we use human judgments to determine the discount rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, J

    2000-12-01

    It has been suggested that the long-term discount rate for environmental goods should decrease at longer delays. One justification for this suggestion is that human judgments support it. This article presents an experiment showing that judgments concerning discount rates are internally inconsistent. These results point to potential problems with the use of judgments referenda for determining discount rates in cost-benefit analyses.

  19. The economics of climate change and the theory of discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philibert, C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates. (author)

  20. Social Discounting under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jia; Pei, Guanxiong; Ma, Qingguo

    2017-01-01

    As a measure of how prosocial behavior depends on social distance, social discounting is defined as the decrease in generosity between the decision maker and the recipient as the social distance increases. While risk is a ubiquitous part of modern life, there is limited research on the relationship between risk and prosocial behavior. In the present experiment, we empirically test whether risk has an influence on social discounting. We use the choice titration procedure to examine this effect. Our data show that independent of risk, participants are less eager to forego money and exhibit more selfishness toward a specific person when the social distance increases; these findings are reflected in the hyperbolic model. Interestingly, risk influences the shape of the social discounting function, which is reflected in the notable different discount rates. Individuals who make decisions under risk yield a smaller discount rate than those who make decisions without risk, i.e., under risk subjects reduce less their generosity as a function of the social distance. Furthermore, this distinct type of generosity occurs typically among individuals with 10-distance recipients but not with the closest- and furthest-social-distance recipients.

  1. Discounting in the economic evaluation of health care interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahn, M; Gafni, A

    1993-05-01

    Do economic theories that underlie discounting have specific implications for program evaluation in health? In this study, both the contemporary practice and the theoretical foundations of discounting are reviewed. The social discount rate controversy is considered, and the two major concepts (i.e., opportunity cost and time preference) involved in the formulation of a social discount rate are outlined. Also described are the arguments for discounting proposed by thinkers in non-economic disciplines. Finally, the implications of choosing a discount rate for evaluation of individual health care programs are considered. It is argued that the conventional practice of discounting all health care programs at a rate of 5% may not consistently reflect societal or individual preference. Specific recommendations arising from this paper are: 1) given the considerable disagreement at the theoretical level as to the appropriate social discount rate, analysts should be specific about what theoretical approach underlies their choice of rate, especially when the analytic result is sensitive to the discount rate; 2) the discount rate chosen should be appropriate for the perspective of the analysis (social vs. individual vs. institutional, etc.); 3) when appropriate, measures should be taken to avoid double discounting, because some health related outcome measures already incorporate individuals' time preference; and 4) it is suggested that the political process may serve as the appropriate means of reflecting social values in the choice of a discount rate. In addition, the authors argue that a consensus conference approach, with political participation, offers a flexible, pragmatic, and explicit way of synthesizing the empirical, normative, and ethical considerations that underlie choice of a discount rate.

  2. 18 CFR 301.4 - Exchange Period Average System Cost determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS FOR FEDERAL POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS AVERAGE... Period and extend through four (4) years after the Exchange Period. The load forecast for Contract System... Utility's ASC until the change in service territory takes place. (g) ASC determination for Consumer-owned...

  3. 77 FR 24940 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-26

    ... 5-year average ratio with heating oil prices published in the Monthly Energy Review, but the propane... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Program... and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: In this notice, the U.S...

  4. 75 FR 13123 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... that of heating oil, based on the 2004-2008 averages for these two fuels. The source for these price... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Program... and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: In this notice, the U.S...

  5. Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    In cost-benefit analysis of climate policy there are two main approaches to discounting, each with implications conflicting with our moral intuitions. Thus, discounted utilitarianism implies that we hardly need to protect future generations against climate change, while classical utilitarianism

  6. Sales Trends in Price-Discounted Cigarettes, Large Cigars, Little Cigars, and Cigarillos-United States, 2011-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Teresa W; Falvey, Kyle; Gammon, Doris G; Loomis, Brett R; Kuiper, Nicole M; Rogers, Todd; King, Brian A

    2017-12-15

    Tobacco manufacturers continue to implement a range of pricing strategies to increase the affordability and consumption of tobacco products. To demonstrate the extent of retail- and brand-level price discounts at the point of sale, this study assessed national sales trends in price-discounted cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos. Retail scanner data for tobacco product sales were obtained for convenience stores (C-store) and all-other-outlets-combined (AOC) from September 25, 2011, to January 9, 2016. The proportion of price-discounted sales, average nondiscounted unit price, and average discounted unit price were examined by product category and brand. JoinPoint regression was used to assess average monthly percentage change. Overall, price-discounted sales accounted for 11.3% of cigarette, 3.4% of large cigar, 4.1% of little cigar, and 3.9% of cigarillo sales. The average difference between nondiscounted and discounted prices was 25.5% (C-store) and 36.7% (AOC) for cigarettes; 11.0% (C-store) and 11.2% (AOC) for large cigars; 19.2% (C-store) and 9.6% (AOC) for little cigars; and 5.3% (C-store) and 14.7% (AOC) for cigarillos. Furthermore, price-discounted sales of top-selling tobacco brands comprised up to 36% of cigarette, 7.4% of large cigar, 7.7% of little cigar, and 4.2% of cigarillo unit sales. These findings highlight the use of price discounts by tobacco manufacturers to reduce the cost of cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos to consumers. These sales patterns underscore the importance of sustained efforts to implement evidence-based strategies to increase prices and reduce availability and consumption of combustible tobacco in the United States. This study highlights the prevalence and provides a baseline of price-discounted cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos. Surveillance of tobacco sales data, including state-level trends and additional product types, is critical for informing approaches to

  7. The Average Network Flow Problem: Shortest Path and Minimum Cost Flow Formulations, Algorithms, Heuristics, and Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-13

    46, 1989. [75] S. Melkote and M.S. Daskin . An integrated model of facility location and transportation network design. Transportation Research Part A ... a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. AFIT/DS/ENS/12-09 THE AVERAGE NETWORK FLOW PROBLEM...focused thinking (VFT) are used sparingly, as is the case across the entirety of the supply chain literature. We provide a VFT tutorial for supply chain

  8. Aggregate Social Discount Rate Derived from Individual Discount Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth F. Reinschmidt

    2002-01-01

    In the economic evaluation of large public-sector projects, an aggregate social discount rate may be used in present worth comparison of alternatives. This paper uses the assumptions that individual discount rates are constant over time and approximately Normally distributed across the affected population, with mean \\mu and variance \\sigma 2 , to derive an aggregate discount function that is exponential in form but with time-dependent aggregate discount rate \\rho (t) = \\mu - \\sigma 2 t/2, whe...

  9. Explicit information reduces discounting behavior in monkeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John ePearson

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Animals are notoriously impulsive in common laboratory experiments, preferring smaller, sooner rewards to larger, delayed rewards even when this reduces average reward rates. By contrast, the same animals often engage in natural behaviors that require extreme patience, such as food caching, stalking prey, and traveling long distances to high quality food sites. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that standard laboratory delay discounting tasks artificially inflate impulsivity by subverting animals’ common learning strategies. To test this idea, we examined choices made by rhesus macaques in two variants of a standard delay discounting task. In the conventional variant, post-reward delays were uncued and adjusted to render total trial length constant; in the second, all delays were cued explicitly. We found that measured discounting was significantly reduced in the cued task, with discount rates well below those reported in studies using the standard uncued design. When monkeys had complete information, their decisions were more consistent with a strategy of reward rate maximization. These results indicate that monkeys, and perhaps other animals, are more patient than is normally assumed, and that laboratory measures of delay discounting may overstate impulsivity.

  10. On the Relation between Discounting of Climate Change and Edgeworth-Pareto Substitutability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kögel, M.T.

    2009-01-01

    To justify substantial carbon emission reductions, recent literature on cost-benefit analysis of climate change suggests discounting environmental quality at a lower discount rate than the standard consumption discount rate. Recent literature also shows that a theoretical foundation for such a lower

  11. Cognitive Procedures and Hyperbolic Discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nir, A.

    2004-01-01

    "Hyperbolic discount functions are characterized by a relatively high discount rate over short horizons and a relatively low discount rate over long horizons" (Laibson 1997).We suggest two cognitive procedures where individuals perceive future utility as decreasing at a decreasing rate as a function

  12. Increasing the competitiveness of maintenance contract rates by using an alternative methodology for the calculation of average vehicle maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Carstens

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Companies tend to outsource transport to fleet management companies to increase efficiencies if transport is a non-core activity. The provision of fleet management services on contract introduces a certain amount of financial risk to the fleet management company, specifically fixed rate maintenance contracts. The quoted rate needs to be sufficient and also competitive in the market. Currently the quoted maintenance rates are based on the maintenance specifications of the manufacturer and the risk management approach of the fleet management company. This is usually reflected in a contingency that is included in the quoted maintenance rate. An alternative methodology for calculating the average maintenance cost for a vehicle fleet is proposed based on the actual maintenance expenditures of the vehicles and accepted statistical techniques. The proposed methodology results in accurate estimates (and associated confidence limits of the true average maintenance cost and can beused as a basis for the maintenance quote.

  13. Shopping in discount stores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zielke, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    quarters of intentions to shop in discount stores. Value perception has the strongest total effect, which is partly mediated by enjoyment, shame and guilt. Attributions influence the shopping intention indirectly via value perception and emotions. The inferior quality attribution has the strongest total......This paper analyzes the impact of price-related attributions, emotions and value perception on the intention to shop at grocery discounters in an integrated framework. Moderating effects of price consciousness are also analyzed. The results show that the proposed model explains almost three...... effect, followed by the efficiency of the business model attribution. The unfairness to stakeholders and the tricks in price communication attribution mostly influence the shopping intention for less price-conscious customers....

  14. Discounting the distant future—Data on Australian discount rates estimated by a stochastic interest rate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Truong

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Data on certainty equivalent discount factors and discount rates for stochastic interest rates in Australia are provided in this paper. The data has been used for the analysis of investments into climate adaptation projects in ׳It׳s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events׳ (Truong and Trück, 2016 [3] and can be used for other cost-benefit analysis studies in Australia. The data is of particular interest for the discounting of projects that create monetary costs and benefits in the distant future.

  15. Discounting the distant future-Data on Australian discount rates estimated by a stochastic interest rate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Chi; Trück, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Data on certainty equivalent discount factors and discount rates for stochastic interest rates in Australia are provided in this paper. The data has been used for the analysis of investments into climate adaptation projects in ׳It׳s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events ׳ (Truong and Trück, 2016) [3] and can be used for other cost-benefit analysis studies in Australia. The data is of particular interest for the discounting of projects that create monetary costs and benefits in the distant future.

  16. Market value calculation and the solution of circularity between value and the weighted average cost of capital WACC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Vélez-Pareja

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Most finance textbooks present the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC calculation as: WACC = Kd×(1-T×D% + Ke×E%, where Kd is the cost of debt before taxes, T is the tax rate, D% is the percentage of debt on total value, Ke is the cost of equity and E% is the percentage of equity on total value. All of them precise (but not with enough emphasis that the values to calculate D% y E% are market values. Although they devote special space and thought to calculate Kd and Ke, little effort is made to the correct calculation of market values. This means that there are several points that are not sufficiently dealt with: Market values, location in time, occurrence of tax payments, WACC changes in time and the circularity in calculating WACC. The purpose of this note is to clear up these ideas, solve the circularity problem and emphasize in some ideas that usually are looked over. Also, some suggestions are presented on how to calculate, or estimate, the equity cost of capital.

  17. Optimising multi-product multi-chance-constraint inventory control system with stochastic period lengths and total discount under fuzzy purchasing price and holding costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allah Taleizadeh, Ata; Niaki, Seyed Taghi Akhavan; Aryanezhad, Mir-Bahador

    2010-10-01

    While the usual assumptions in multi-periodic inventory control problems are that the orders are placed at the beginning of each period (periodic review) or depending on the inventory level they can happen at any time (continuous review), in this article, we relax these assumptions and assume that the periods between two replenishments of the products are independent and identically distributed random variables. Furthermore, assuming that the purchasing price are triangular fuzzy variables, the quantities of the orders are of integer-type and that there are space and service level constraints, total discount are considered to purchase products and a combination of back-order and lost-sales are taken into account for the shortages. We show that the model of this problem is a fuzzy mixed-integer nonlinear programming type and in order to solve it, a hybrid meta-heuristic intelligent algorithm is proposed. At the end, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and to compare its performance with one of the existing algorithms in real world inventory control problems.

  18. A proposal for transmission pricing methodology in Thailand based on electricity tracing and long-run average incremental cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limpasuwan, T.; Bialek, J.W.; Ongsakul, W.; Limmeechokchai, B.

    2004-01-01

    Although there is no universally accepted methodology for restructuring of electricity supply industry, the transformations often involve separation of generation and transmission. Such separation results in a need for a transmission service charge to be levied on the system users. The National Energy Policy Office (NEPO) of Thailand has commissioned PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC) to propose a transmission service charge that is to be used during the market reform for the transmission business unit of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Although the PwCs transmission use of system charge (TUOS) based on the long-run average incremental cost (LRAIC) and average transmission loss can satisfy the financial requirements, the charge allocations are not economically efficient since they do not provide any locational signal which could reflect costs imposed on the system by locating a system user in a particular geographical location. This paper describes the TUOS methodology suggested by PwC and makes a comparison with a transmission pricing method based on combination of the electricity tracing and LRAIC. The results indicate that, with electricity tracing, the charge allocations are improved in terms of fairness, as the charge reflects the geographical location and system conditions

  19. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Simon [London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (United Kingdom); Asheim, Geir B. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics

    2011-08-15

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a 'business as usual' development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. (orig.)

  20. Long-term impacts of mega-projects: the discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, C.; Rietveld, P.; Priemus, H.; van Wee, B.

    2013-01-01

    In social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA), discount rates are used to convert costs and benefits that occur at different points in time, to present values that can be added and subtracted. Especially if important costs and benefits occur in the long term (more than say 30 years), the discount rate may

  1. Network Effects Versus Strategic Discounting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zucchini, Leon; Claussen, Jörg; Trüg, Moritiz

    . Alternatively, research on strategic discounting suggests small operators use on-net discounts to advertise with low on-net prices. We test the relative strength of these effects using data on tariff setting in German mobile telecommunications between 2001 and 2009. We find that large operators are more likely......Mobile telecommunication operators routinely charge subscribers lower prices for calls on their own network than for calls to other networks (on-net discounts). Studies on tariff-mediated network effects suggest this is due to large operators using on-net discounts to damage smaller rivals...

  2. Time discounting and protected-area priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R

    2018-05-08

    Should conservation organizations focus on protecting habitats that are at imminent risk of being converted but are expensive or more remote areas that are less immediately threatened but where a large amount of land can be set aside? Variants of this trade-off commonly arise in spatial planning. We examined this trade-off using models of land use change near a deforestation frontier. The optimal choice of where to protect was determined by how decisions taken today accounted for ecological benefits and economic costs of conservation actions that would occur sometime in the future. We used an ecological and economic discount rate to weight these benefits and costs. A large economic discount rate favored protecting more remote areas, whereas a large, positive ecological discount rate favored protecting habitat near the current deforestation frontier. We also showed how the decision over where to protect was impacted by the influence that economic factors had in determining landowners' decisions, the rate of technological change and ecological heterogeneity of the landscape. How benefits and costs through time are accounted for warrants careful consideration when specifying conservation objectives. It may provide a niche axis along which conservation organizations differentiate themselves when competing for donor funding or other support. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. 5 CFR 1315.7 - Discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... acceptance has occurred. Agencies are encouraged to include discount terms in a contract to give agencies... web site at http://www.fms.treas.gov/prompt/index.html. (b) Discounts taken after the discount date...

  4. Estimating Drug Costs: How do Manufacturer Net Prices Compare with Other Common US Price References?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, T Joseph; Levy, Joseph F; Slejko, Julia F; Onwudiwe, Nneka C; Perfetto, Eleanor M

    2018-05-12

    Drug costs are frequently estimated in economic analyses using wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), but what is the best approach to develop these estimates? Pharmaceutical manufacturers recently released transparency reports disclosing net price increases after accounting for rebates and other discounts. Our objective was to determine whether manufacturer net prices (MNPs) could approximate the discounted prices observed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). We compared the annual, average price discounts voluntarily reported by three pharmaceutical manufacturers with the VA price for specific products from each company. The top 10 drugs by total sales reported from company tax filings for 2016 were included. The discount observed by the VA was determined from each drug's list price, reported as WAC, in 2016. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the VA discount observed and a weighted price index was calculated using the lowest price to the VA (Weighted VA Index), which was compared with the manufacturer index. The discounted price as a percentage of the WAC ranged from 9 to 74%. All three indexes estimated by the average discount to the VA were at or below the manufacturer indexes (42 vs. 50% for Eli Lilly, 56 vs. 65% for Johnson & Johnson, and 59 vs. 59% for Merck). Manufacturer-reported average net prices may provide a close approximation of the average discounted price granted to the VA, suggesting they may be a useful proxy for the true pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) or payer cost. However, individual discounts for products have wide variation, making a standard discount adjustment across multiple products less acceptable.

  5. Retrospective cost adaptive Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes k-ω model for data-driven unsteady turbulent simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiyong; Hoagg, Jesse B.; Martin, Alexandre; Bailey, Sean C. C.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a data-driven computational model for simulating unsteady turbulent flows, where sparse measurement data is available. The model uses the retrospective cost adaptation (RCA) algorithm to automatically adjust the closure coefficients of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) k- ω turbulence equations to improve agreement between the simulated flow and the measurements. The RCA-RANS k- ω model is verified for steady flow using a pipe-flow test case and for unsteady flow using a surface-mounted-cube test case. Measurements used for adaptation of the verification cases are obtained from baseline simulations with known closure coefficients. These verification test cases demonstrate that the RCA-RANS k- ω model can successfully adapt the closure coefficients to improve agreement between the simulated flow field and a set of sparse flow-field measurements. Furthermore, the RCA-RANS k- ω model improves agreement between the simulated flow and the baseline flow at locations at which measurements do not exist. The RCA-RANS k- ω model is also validated with experimental data from 2 test cases: steady pipe flow, and unsteady flow past a square cylinder. In both test cases, the adaptation improves agreement with experimental data in comparison to the results from a non-adaptive RANS k- ω model that uses the standard values of the k- ω closure coefficients. For the steady pipe flow, adaptation is driven by mean stream-wise velocity measurements at 24 locations along the pipe radius. The RCA-RANS k- ω model reduces the average velocity error at these locations by over 35%. For the unsteady flow over a square cylinder, adaptation is driven by time-varying surface pressure measurements at 2 locations on the square cylinder. The RCA-RANS k- ω model reduces the average surface-pressure error at these locations by 88.8%.

  6. A finite and stable exponential growth-adjusted indirect cost of cancer associated with discounted years of life lost in Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar B. Da'ar

    2018-05-01

    Conclusion: Our findings reveal evidence of indirect cost associated with cancer premature deaths in Saudi Arabia. In order to develop cancer control actions, the results of this study can inform health system policymakers not only of the extent of the enormous economic burden but also drawing attention to epidemiological and economic factors that explain the variability of the burden.

  7. Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.

    2002-07-01

    We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)

  8. Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.

    2002-01-01

    We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)

  9. Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M

    2002-07-01

    We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)

  10. A comparison of discounted cashflow and modern asset pricing methods - project selection and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.

    2003-01-01

    We examine the differences in the net present values (NPVs) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the weighted average cost of capital and a modern asset pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cashflow components. NPV differences of more than $10 million were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies and could influence tax policy. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model

  11. Synchronisation of customers’ orders using discounts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhayenko, Viktoryia; van Eikenhorst, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Conventionally, price discounts are offered to enhance demand, for example to get rid of excess inventory. This paper, however, studies the possibility of using discounts in situations when total demand is non-sensitive to changes in prices. By introducing a discount in some periods, the supplier...... the supplier's profit a modification of the heuristic which differs in the discount approximation used is developed....

  12. Assessing delay discounting in mice

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Suzanne H.

    2014-01-01

    Delay discounting (also intertemporal choice or impulsive choice) is the process by which delayed outcomes, such as delayed food delivery, are valued less than the same outcomes delivered immediately or with a shorter delay. This process is of interest because many psychopathologies, including substance dependence, pathological gambling, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorder, are characterized by heightened levels of delay discounting. Some of these disorders are herit...

  13. Investigation of the existing methodology of value estimation and methods of discount rate estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Plikus, Iryna

    2017-01-01

    The subject of research is the current practice of determining the fair value of assets and liabilities at the present (discounted) cost. One of the most problematic places is the determination of the discount rate, which belongs to the jurisdiction of a professional accountant judgment.The methods of formalization, hypothetical assumption, system approach and scientific abstraction in substantiating the formation of accounting policy with respect to the choice of the discount rate are used i...

  14. Intergenerational transfers and the social discount rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howarth, R.B.; Norgaard, R.B.

    1992-08-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no distortions in capital markets and that all agents hold perfect foresight, cost-benefit techniques will result in a Pareto efficient resource allocation if the discount rate is set equal to the market rate of interest. But since the path of the interest rate depends on the level of intergenerational transfers, cost-benefit techniques do not ensure a socially desirable distribution of welfare between generations; a social optimum will result only if intergenerational transfers are properly chosen and enforced. Decentralized private altruism may result in intergenerational transfers that both present and future individuals would agree are too small if members of the present generation attach positive weight to the general welfare of future generations, not simply their personal descendants. In a world where intergenerational transfers are non-optimal, second-best policy-making may imply a constrained optimum that is inefficient. Together, these findings suggest that cost-benefit analysis is at best a partial criterion to policy formulation that should be used only in conjunction with ethical principles that define the proper distribution of welfare between present and future generations

  15. Initial public offerings in Brazil (2004-2006: Valuation with the use of multiples and discounting of cash flows using the appropriate cost of equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Felipe Jacques da Motta

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The pricing process of new shares in IPOs has been under study in several countries. This paper initially looks at the valuation process using multiples and seeks to classify the new shares under two categories: underpriced or overpriced at the time of the IPOs. Analysis of the cost of equity, comparing betas at the time of the offerings (usually calculated as the betas of comparable companies and the betas of the companies after 12 months of trading, is also carried out. Companies in the sample are those that went public between 2004 and 2006. Results indicated that companies were not undervalued, even after some high short-term returns. However there is no statistical evidence that they were overvalued. Finally, results indicated that betas after twelve months of trading are significantly higher than the comparable companies’ betas used at the time of the IPOs.

  16. Money earlier or later? Simple heuristics explain intertemporal choices better than delay discounting does.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ericson, Keith M Marzilli; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2015-06-01

    Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best-performing models predicted choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative percentage differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We concluded that heuristic models explain time-money trade-off choices in experiments better than do utility-discounting models. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzilli Ericson, Keith M.; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2015-01-01

    Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative (percentage) differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We conclude that heuristic models explain time-money tradeoff choices in experiments better than utility discounting models. PMID:25911124

  18. Heroin addicts have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than non-drug-using controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, K N; Petry, N M; Bickel, W K

    1999-03-01

    Fifty-six heroin addicts and 60 age-matched controls were offered choices between monetary rewards ($11-$80) available immediately and larger rewards ($25-$85) available after delays ranging from 1 week to 6 months. Participants had a 1-in-6 chance of winning a reward that they chose on one randomly selected trial. Delay-discounting rates were estimated from the pattern of participants' choices. The discounting model of impulsiveness (Ainslie, 1975) implies that delay-discounting rates are positively correlated with impulsiveness. On average, heroin addicts' discount rates were twice those of controls (p = .004), and discount rates were positively correlated with impulsivity as measured by self-report questionnaires (p discounting rate as a measure of impulsiveness, a characteristic associated with substance abuse.

  19. Incentivizing Decentralized Sanitation: The Role of Discount Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Alison; Blackhurst, Michael; Garland, Jay L; Lawler, Desmond F

    2016-06-21

    In adoption decisions for decentralized sanitation technologies, two decision makers are involved: the public utility and the individual homeowner. Standard life cycle cost is calculated from the perspective of the utility, which uses a market-based discount rate in these calculations. However, both decision-makers must be considered, including their differing perceptions of the time trade-offs inherent in a stream of costs and benefits. This study uses the discount rate as a proxy for these perceptions and decision-maker preferences. The results in two case studies emphasize the dependence on location of such analyses. Falmouth, Massachusetts, appears to be a good candidate for incentivizing decentralized sanitation while the Allegheny County Sanitary Authority service area in Pennsylvania appears to have no need for similar incentives. This method can be applied to any two-party decision in which the parties are expected to have different discount rates.

  20. Determining a Relationship between Higher Education Financial Position and Tuition Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, Julianna

    2013-01-01

    Institutions have increased the practice of tuition discounting, that is, the strategic use of price discrimination. During the past 30 years, both the average percent discount given to students and the proportion of students receiving tuition breaks have increased. As this practice has increased, there are financial determinants and implications…

  1. Accounting of discounts, acquired by an enterprise when purchasing production inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shishkina A.V.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Different types of discounts for the price of a product are quite common in transactions. They are frequently used by industrial enterprises as well: they receive discounts when they purchase production inventories; they offer discounts when they sell the finished product. Industrial enterprise strive to minimize costs when purchasing raw materials necessary for manufacturing and therefore it is interested in acquiring a discount from supplier. Acquiring a discount is a fact of economic life and must be registered in financial accounts of an enterprise, however nowadays the patterns of accounting of such operations are not regulated by any special normative documents and traditionally applied accounting patterns do not contain information on the amounts of received discounts. It is happening because they comply with the current rules of accounting, according to which inventories are accounted only after deduction of the received discount (so the discount is granted in form of verbal agreement. This is a precursor to the lack of data on the received discounts in financial accounting system of an industrial enterprise, to the impossibility of creation the information base for analyzing the effectiveness of the received discounts on its basis, to the violation of the principle of completeness and continuity of registering all the economic life events in accounting. The article offers the already existing variants of financial accounting of the received discounts, analyzes its advantages and disadvantages from the point of view of compliance with the current legislative system and economic contents of discount operation. Proprietary technology of financial accounting of discounts, received by an industrial enterprise when purchasing production stock, is offered. This technology allows solving the stated methodological issues.

  2. Spatial discounting of food and social rewards in guppies (Poecilia reticulata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly eMühlhoff

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In temporal discounting, animals trade off the time to obtain a reward against the quality of a reward, choosing between a smaller reward available sooner versus a larger reward available later. Similar discounting can apply over space, when animals choose between smaller and closer versus larger and more distant rewards. Most studies of temporal and spatial discounting in nonhuman animals use food as the reward, and it is not established whether animals trade off other preferred stimuli in similar ways. Here, we offered female guppies (Poecilia reticulata a spatial discounting task in which we measured preferences for a larger reward as the distance to it increased relative to a closer but smaller reward. We tested whether the fish discounted reward types differently by offering subjects either food items or same-sex conspecifics as rewards. Before beginning the discounting tasks, we conducted validation tests to ensure that subjects equally valued the food and social stimuli in the quantities provided. In the discounting task, subjects switched their preferences from the larger to the smaller reward as the distance to the larger reward increased (spatial discounting, but the pattern and magnitude of discounting did not differ across the two reward types. These findings indicate that guppies show similar patterns of discounting food and social rewards in a spatial task. In an analysis of travel times, however, the fish swam faster to food rewards than to shoaling partners. This difference in travel times implies that fish temporally discounted social rewards less steeply than food rewards. Thus, reward type influences temporal discounting, suggesting a dissociation between temporal and spatial discounting. Our results illustrate how animals adjust choices and travel times depending on both the type of cost (time, distance and benefits (food, social partners.

  3. A Discounted Cash Flow variant to detect the optimal amount of additional burdens in Public-Private Partnership transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copiello, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    The Discounted Cash Flow method is a long since well-known tool to assess the feasibility of investment projects, as the background which shapes a broad range of techniques, from the Cost-Benefit Analysis up to the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis. Its rationale lies in the comparison of deferred values, only once they have been discounted back to the present. The DCF variant proposed here fits into a specific application field. It is well-suited to the evaluations required in order to structure equitable transactions under the umbrella of Public-Private Partnership. •The discount rate relies upon the concept of expected return on equity, instead than on those of weighted average cost of capital, although the latter is the most common reference within the scope of real estate investment valuation.•Given a feasible project, whose Net Present Value is more than satisfactory, we aim to identify the amount of the additional burdens that could be charged to the project, under the condition of keeping the same economically viable.•The DCF variant essentially deals with an optimization problem, which can be solved by means of simple one-shot equations, derived from financial mathematics, or through iterative calculations if additional constraints must be considered.

  4. Explaining the heterogeneity in average costs per HIV/AIDS patient in Nigeria: The role of supply-side and service delivery characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanze, Ogbonna O.; La Hera-Fuentes, Gina; Silverman-Retana, Omar; Contreras-Loya, David; Ashefor, Gregory A.; Ogungbemi, Kayode M.

    2018-01-01

    Objective We estimated the average annual cost per patient of ART per facility (unit cost) in Nigeria, described the variation in costs across facilities, and identified factors associated with this variation. Methods We used facility-level data of 80 facilities in Nigeria, collected between December 2014 and May 2015. We estimated unit costs at each facility as the ratio of total costs (the sum of costs of staff, recurrent inputs and services, capital, training, laboratory tests, and antiretroviral and TB treatment drugs) divided by the annual number of patients. We applied linear regressions to estimate factors associated with ART cost per patient. Results The unit ART cost in Nigeria was $157 USD nationally and the facility-level mean was $231 USD. The study found a wide variability in unit costs across facilities. Variations in costs were explained by number of patients, level of care, task shifting (shifting tasks from doctors to less specialized staff, mainly nurses, to provide ART) and provider´s competence. The study illuminated the potentially important role that management practices can play in improving the efficiency of ART services. Conclusions Our study identifies characteristics of services associated with the most efficient implementation of ART services in Nigeria. These results will help design efficient program scale-up to deliver comprehensive HIV services in Nigeria by distinguishing features linked to lower unit costs. PMID:29718906

  5. Explaining the heterogeneity in average costs per HIV/AIDS patient in Nigeria: The role of supply-side and service delivery characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Bautista-Arredondo

    Full Text Available We estimated the average annual cost per patient of ART per facility (unit cost in Nigeria, described the variation in costs across facilities, and identified factors associated with this variation.We used facility-level data of 80 facilities in Nigeria, collected between December 2014 and May 2015. We estimated unit costs at each facility as the ratio of total costs (the sum of costs of staff, recurrent inputs and services, capital, training, laboratory tests, and antiretroviral and TB treatment drugs divided by the annual number of patients. We applied linear regressions to estimate factors associated with ART cost per patient.The unit ART cost in Nigeria was $157 USD nationally and the facility-level mean was $231 USD. The study found a wide variability in unit costs across facilities. Variations in costs were explained by number of patients, level of care, task shifting (shifting tasks from doctors to less specialized staff, mainly nurses, to provide ART and provider´s competence. The study illuminated the potentially important role that management practices can play in improving the efficiency of ART services.Our study identifies characteristics of services associated with the most efficient implementation of ART services in Nigeria. These results will help design efficient program scale-up to deliver comprehensive HIV services in Nigeria by distinguishing features linked to lower unit costs.

  6. Discount factor in planning decision of electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.L.; Maurer, L.T.A.

    1990-01-01

    Researchers and technicians have been giving a lot of attention to the issue of discount factor in planning in the electric sector. In this paper we review the most important points under consideration, attempting to broaden the discussion and stimulate the creativity of the technicians involved with the sector. There appears to be an emerging consensus that the discount factor to be used must consider the capital costs associated with the main financial sources utilized. The traditional factor of 10% per year must be re-evaluated and augmented, in order to best reflect long range economical and financial conditions. The paper emphasizes the importance of the discount factor to several decisions made within the sector, including energy conservation. Because of the relevance of the topic to Brazil future, we strongly suggest the utilization of sensitivity analysis techniques. (author)

  7. 18 CFR 704.39 - Discount rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Discount rate. 704.39... STANDARDS AND PROCEDURES Standards for Plan Formulation and Evaluation § 704.39 Discount rate. (a) The interest rate to be used in plan formulation and evaluation for discounting future benefits and computing...

  8. Discounting human lives: Uranium and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, B.A.

    1993-01-01

    Long-term, global environmental health risks complicate efforts to evaluate the efficiency and equity of economic activities from a public welfare perspective. This study sets out a practical framework based on the theory of neoclassical welfare economics for evaluating whether an economic activity yields such inefficient or inequitable net effects to justify government intervention from a variety of decision-making perspectives. It applies this empirical approach to the case of public policies that encouraged uranium production (the mining, milling, and refining of uranium ore) near Elliot Lake and Blind River in Northern Ontario. The analysis tests the two-fold hypothesis that if future negative externalities of production are considered along with past net effects, the these policies result in (1) an inefficient allocation of economic resources according to the potential Pareto criterion, and (2) an inequitable distribution of impacts according to Rawls' maximin criterion. The analytical framework to test these hypotheses has three parts: Risk-cost-benefit analysis, distributions analysis, and efficiency and equity analysis. Quantitative impacts are derived from empirical estimates of cost and benefit streams during 1956 to 1990, and modelled future cancer death costs. Net effects are aggregated to nine observations across three dimensions: Geographic, intergenerational, and social. Qualitative observations are provided about the boom-and-bust uranium economy, environmental burdens, and other unquantifiable impacts. The results illustrate how underlying normative assumptions overwhelm other aspects of efficiency and equity analyses of long-term, global environmental changes. These assumptions appear in discounting equations that ultimately derive from a priori allocations of rights to natural assets and corollary duties to protect such rights. More than two-thirds of the discounting scenarios yield inefficient outcomes and over ninety percent are inequitable

  9. Secretary Problems: Weights and Discounts

    OpenAIRE

    Babaioff, M.; Dinitz, M.; Gupta, A.; Immorlica, Nicole Simone; Talwar, K.

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe classical secretary problem studies the problem of selecting online an element (a “secretary”) with maximum value in a randomly ordered sequence. The difficulty lies in the fact that an element must be either selected or discarded upon its arrival, and this decision is irrevocable. Constant-competitive algorithms are known for the classical secretary problems and several variants. We study the following two extensions of the secretary problem: In the discounted secretary probl...

  10. Time-discounting and tobacco smoking: a systematic review and network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Pepita; McKee, Martin; Reeves, Aaron; Galea, Gauden; Stuckler, David

    2017-06-01

    Tobacco smoking harms health, so why do people smoke and fail to quit? An explanation originating in behavioural economics suggests a role for time-discounting, which describes how the value of a reward, such as better health, decreases with delay to its receipt. A large number of studies test the relationship of time-discounting with tobacco outcomes but the temporal pattern of this relationship and its variation according to measurement methods remain unclear. We review the association between time-discounting and smoking across (i) the life course, from initiation to cessation, and (ii) diverse discount measures. We identified 69 relevant studies in Web of Science and PubMed. We synthesized findings across methodologies and evaluated discount measures, study quality and cross-disciplinary fertilization. In 44 out of 54 studies, smokers more greatly discounted the future than non-smokers and, in longitudinal studies, higher discounting predicted future smoking. Smokers with lower time-discount rates achieved higher quit rates. Findings were consistent across studies measuring discount rates using hypothetical monetary or cigarette reward scenarios. The methodological quality of the majority of studies was rated as 'moderate' and co-citation analysis revealed an isolation of economics journals and a dearth of studies in public health. There is moderate yet consistent evidence that high time-discounting is a risk factor for smoking and unsuccessful cessation. Policy scenarios assuming a flat rate of population discounting may inadequately capture smokers' perceptions of costs and benefits. © The Author 2016; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

  11. State Averages

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of a variety of averages for each state or territory as well as the national average, including each quality measure, staffing, fine amount and number of...

  12. Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, Stephan; Freeman, Mark C.; Mann, Michael E.

    2017-09-01

    There is broad consensus among economists that unmitigated climate change will ultimately have adverse global economic consequences, that the costs of inaction will likely outweigh the cost of taking action, and that social planners should therefore put a price on carbon. However, there is considerable debate and uncertainty about the appropriate value of the social discount rate, that is the extent to which future damages should be discounted relative to mitigation costs incurred now. We briefly review the ethical issues surrounding the social discount rate and then report a simulation experiment that constrains the value of the discount rate by considering 4 sources of uncertainty and ambiguity: Scientific uncertainty about the extent of future warming, social uncertainty about future population and future economic development, political uncertainty about future mitigation trajectories, and ethical ambiguity about how much the welfare of future generations should be valued today. We compute a certainty-equivalent declining discount rate that accommodates all those sources of uncertainty and ambiguity. The forward (instantaneous) discount rate converges to a value near 0% by century's end and the spot (horizon) discount rate drops below 2% by 2100 and drops below previous estimates by 2070.

  13. Hyperbolic Discounting of the Far-Distant Future

    OpenAIRE

    Anchugina, Nina; Ryan, Matthew; Slinko, Arkadii

    2017-01-01

    We prove an analogue of Weitzman's (1998) famous result that an exponential discounter who is uncertain of the appropriate exponential discount rate should discount the far-distant future using the lowest (i.e., most patient) of the possible discount rates. Our analogous result applies to a hyperbolic discounter who is uncertain about the appropriate hyperbolic discount rate. In this case, the far-distant future should be discounted using the probability-weighted harmonic mean of the possible...

  14. Global warming: discounting is not the issue, but substitutability is

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumayer, E.

    1999-01-01

    The cost-benefit study of Nordhaus (1994) is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming. Nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted. Most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied. These criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious, inconsistent conclusions and inefficient policy choices. They miss the point because the real problem of Nordhaus's methodology is his implicit underlying assumption of perfect substitutability between natural and other forms of capital. Given the validity of this assumption, lowering the rate of discount is inconsistent with current savings behaviour, is ethically dubious because future generations will be much richer than the current one anyway, and is inefficient because scarce financial resources are channelled into emissions abatement that exhibits rates of return far inferior to alternative public investments. Any call for aggressive emission abatement must therefore directly attack the perfect substitutability assumption of neoclassical economics. The real disagreement is about whether consumption growth can compensate for environmental degradation caused by global warming. Discounting is not the issue, but substitutability is. (author)

  15. Optimal Discount Rates for Government Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Sangkyun

    2012-01-01

    Project selection based on the net present value can be optimal only if the discount rate is optimal. The optimal discount rate for a government project can be a risk-free rate, a comparable market rate (market interest rate corresponding to the risk of cash flows to the government), or an adjusted market rate, depending on circumstances. This paper clarifies the conditions for each case. Provided that the optimal discount rate is the comparable market rate, it varies across intervention meth...

  16. Essays on Discounting Behavior and Gambling Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Jessen, Lasse J.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis consists of three independent chapters on the elicitation of individual discount rates and on the estimation of gambling prevalence in Denmark. The first chapter, “Discount Rate Sensitivity to Background Consumption and Consumption Smoothing,” studies the sensitivity of individual discount rates with respect to background consumption and consumption smoothing. I use simulated choice data from standard decision tasks in time preference experiments and show that indiv...

  17. Discounting in economics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper examines the complexity of the issues surrounding the discounting issue as applied to the economics of climatic change. It is assumed that living standards will continue to improve, and that future generations will be more able to resource environmental improvements than our own. Measures to counter climate change now may have a deleterious effect on economic growth. Approaches to this situation include: lowering the discount rate; differential discounting; climate targeting; and emissions or concentrations limitations. Policies that focus directly on reducing pollutants are likely to have fewer deleterious economic effects than those that manipulate the discount rate on goods. 3 refs., 2 figs

  18. Coordinated Lot-sizing and Dynamic Prizing under a Supplier All-units Quantity Discount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Transchel

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available We consider an economic order quantity model where the supplier offers an all-units quantity discount and a price sensitive customer demand. We compare a decentralized decision framework where selling price and replenishment policy are determined independently to simultaneous decision making. Constant and dynamic pricing are distinguished. We derive structural properties and develop algorithms that determine the optimal pricing and replenishment policy and show how quantity discounts not only influence the purchasing strategy but also the pricing policy. A sensitivity analysis indicates the impact of the fixed-holding cost ratio, the discount policy, and the customers' price sensitivity on the optimal decisions.

  19. Commercial Discount Rate Estimation for Efficiency Standards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-04-13

    Underlying each of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) federal appliance and equipment standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). A proposed standard is considered economically justified when its benefits exceed its burdens, as represented by the projected net present value of costs and benefits. DOE performs multiple analyses to evaluate the balance of costs and benefits of commercial appliance and equipment e efficiency standards, at the national and individual building or business level, each framed to capture different nuances of the complex impact of standards on the commercial end user population. The Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels.1 Thus, the choice of commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the Life-Cycle Cost model implicitly plays a key role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels.2 This report is intended to provide a more in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process than can be readily included in standard rulemaking Technical Support Documents (TSDs).

  20. Key Recovery Using Noised Secret Sharing with Discounts over Large Clouds

    OpenAIRE

    JAJODIA , Sushil; Litwin , Witold; Schwarz , Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Encryption key loss problem is the Achilles's heel of cryptography. Key escrow helps, but favors disclosures. Schemes for recoverable encryption keys through noised secret sharing alleviate the dilemma. Key owner escrows a specifically encrypted backup. The recovery needs a large cloud. Cloud cost, money trail should rarefy illegal attempts. We now propose noised secret sharing schemes supporting discounts. The recovery request with discount code lowers the recovery complexity, easily by orde...

  1. Assessing Discount Rate for a Project Financed Entirely with Equity Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Vintila

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimating discount rate for an investment project is one of the most challenging tasks incapital budgeting. In this paper we discuss different kind of models for cost of equity capital proposed infinance literature (static CAPM, conditional CAPM, APT, build-up model, focusing especially on advantagesand disadvantages of using each of them. In the final section, we estimate the discount rate fora certain project financed entirely with equity capital, using a version of build-up model.

  2. How hyperbolic discounting preference affects Chinese consumers’ consumption choice between conventional and electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Tian; Shang, Zhe; Tian, Xin; Wang, Shouyang

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical model and addresses several issues related to life cycle cost analysis to illustrate how time-inconsistent preferences affect consumer choice. The particular case study selects involved consumer choice between a vehicle with high initial acquisition cost but low ownership cost (e.g., an Electric Vehicle, EV) and one with a low initial acquisition cost but high ownership cost (e.g., a conventional Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle, ICEV). To test our theoretical analysis, we conduct an empirical study on how time discounting rates affect consumer choice between ICEVs and EVs with different initial cost ratios. From the survey results, we find that individuals with higher present bias showed irrational purchase behavior even when controlling for wealth level. Specifically, people making some “stronger bias to present” decisions chose higher total cost ICEVs with lower initial cost but higher ownership cost over lower total cost EVs with higher initial cost and lower ownership cost. However, people’s long-term discount is not correlated with irrational vehicle purchase behavior. Furthermore, we study the present bias and long-term discount rate in one scenario and found present bias to be correlated with irrational behavior. - Highlights: • Theoretical model and survey based on psychological experiment are used for study. • Time inconsistency preferences may affect consumers' rational purchasing choice. • Present bias is correlated with irrational behavior, but long-term discount is not.

  3. A 5-trial adjusting delay discounting task: Accurate discount rates in less than 60 seconds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; Bickel, Warren K.

    2014-01-01

    Individuals who discount delayed rewards at a high rate are more likely to engage in substance abuse, overeating, or problem gambling. Findings such as these suggest the value of methods to obtain an accurate and fast measurement of discount rate that can be easily deployed in variety of settings. In the present study, we developed and evaluated the 5-trial adjusting delay task, a novel method of obtaining discount rate in less than one minute. We hypothesized that discount rates from the 5-trial adjusting delay task would be similar and correlated with discount rates from a lengthier task we have used previously, and that four known effects relating to delay discounting would be replicable with this novel task. To test these hypotheses, the 5-trial adjusting delay task was administered to 111 college students six times to obtain discount rates for six different commodities, along with a lengthier adjusting amount discounting task. We found that discount rates were similar and correlated between the 5-trial adjusting delay task and the adjusting amount task. Each of the four known effects relating to delay discounting was replicated with the 5-trial adjusting delay task to varying degrees. First, discount rates were inversely correlated with amount. Second, discount rates between past and future outcomes were correlated. Third, discount rates were greater for consumable rewards than with money, although we did not control for amount in this comparison. Fourth, discount rates were lower when zero amounts opposing the chosen time point were explicitly described. Results indicate that the 5-trial adjusting delay task is a viable, rapid method to assess discount rate. PMID:24708144

  4. A 5-trial adjusting delay discounting task: accurate discount rates in less than one minute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Bickel, Warren K

    2014-06-01

    Individuals who discount delayed rewards at a high rate are more likely to engage in substance abuse, overeating, or problem gambling. Such findings suggest the value of methods to obtain an accurate and fast measurement of discount rate that can be easily deployed in variety of settings. In the present study, we developed and evaluated the 5-trial adjusting delay task, a novel method of obtaining a discount rate in less than 1 min. We hypothesized that discount rates from the 5-trial adjusting delay task would be similar and would correlate with discount rates from a lengthier task we have used previously, and that 4 known effects relating to delay discounting would be replicable with this novel task. To test these hypotheses, the 5-trial adjusting delay task was administered to 111 college students 6 times to obtain discount rates for 6 different commodities, along with a lengthier adjusting amount discounting task. We found that discount rates were similar and correlated between the 5-trial adjusting delay task and the adjusting amount task. Each of the 4 known effects relating to delay discounting was replicated with the 5-trial adjusting delay task to varying degrees. First, discount rates were inversely correlated with amount. Second, discount rates between past and future outcomes were correlated. Third, discount rates were greater for consumable rewards than with money, although we did not control for amount in this comparison. Fourth, discount rates were lower when $0 amounts opposing the chosen time point were explicitly described. Results indicate that the 5-trial adjusting delay task is a viable, rapid method to assess discount rate. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  5. Evaluation of Deep Discount Fare Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-08-01

    This report evaluates the success of a fare pricing strategy known as deep discounting, that entails the bulk sale of transit tickets or tokens to customers at a significant discount compared to the full fare single ticket price. This market-driven s...

  6. Smoking, Discount Rates, and Returns to Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fersterer, Josef; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf

    2003-01-01

    Individual time preference determines schooling enrolment. Moreover, smoking behavior in early ages has been shown to be highly related to time preference rates. Insofar as discount rates are uncorrelated to ability, predicting school enrolment by discount rates can get rid of the ability bias in an earnings regression. Accordingly, we use smoking…

  7. Essays on Discounting Behavior and Gambling Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jessen, Lasse J.

    This thesis consists of three independent chapters on the elicitation of individual discount rates and on the estimation of gambling prevalence in Denmark. The first chapter, “Discount Rate Sensitivity to Background Consumption and Consumption Smoothing,” studies the sensitivity of individual...

  8. Choosing the Discount Rate for Defense Decisionmaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-07-01

    a weighted average of the after-personal-income-tax rate of return to savers and the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch calcu].ates...occurs between the corporate and noncorporate sector. Many economists assume 100 percent shifting of the corporate income tax , so if the corporate ...capital is a weighted average of the after-personal-income-tax rate of return to savers and the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch

  9. Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azar, Christian; Sterner, Thomas

    1996-01-01

    The economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate. Both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions. It is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant, but it is not. If we assume that a CO 2 -equivalent doubling implies costs equal to 1.5% of the income in both high and low income countries, a pure rate of time preference equal to zero, and a utility function which is logarithmic in income, then the marginal cost of CO 2 emissions is estimated at 260-590 USD/ton C for a time horizon in the range 300-1000 years, an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of CO 2 emissions on purely economic grounds. The estimate is approximately 50-100-times larger than the estimate made by Nordhaus in his DICE model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle. Finally, the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed

  10. Production costs for SRIC Populus biomass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strauss, C.H.

    1991-01-01

    Production costs for short rotation, intensive culture (SRIC) Populus biomass were developed from commercial-sized plantations under investigation throughout the US. Populus hybrid planted on good quality agricultural sites at a density of 850 cuttings/acre was projected to yield an average of 7 ovendry (OD) tons/acre/year. Discounted cash-flow analysis of multiple rotations showed preharvest production costs of $14/ton (OD). Harvesting and transportation expenses would increase the delivered cost to $35/ton (OD). Although this total cost compared favorably with the regional market price for aspen (Populus tremuloides), future investments in SRIC systems will require the development of biomass energy markets

  11. Discounting future health benefits: the poverty of consistency arguments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nord, Erik

    2011-01-01

    In economic evaluation of health care, main stream practice is to discount benefits at the same rate as costs. But main papers in which this practice is advocated have missed a distinction between two quite different evaluation problems: (1) How much does the time of program occurrence matter for value and (2) how much do delays in health benefits from programs implemented at a given time matter? The papers have furthermore focused on logical and arithmetic arguments rather than on real value considerations. These 'consistency arguments' are at best trivial, at worst logically flawed. At the end of the day, there is a sensible argument for equal discounting of costs and benefits rooted in microeconomic theory of rational, utility maximising consumers' saving behaviour. But even this argument is problematic, first because the model is not clearly supported by empirical observations of individuals' time preferences for health, second because it relates only to evaluation in terms of overall individual utility. It does not provide grounds for claiming that decision makers with a wider societal perspective, which may include concerns for fair distribution, need to discount Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Dissociable roles of glucocorticoid and noradrenergic activation on social discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margittai, Zsofia; van Wingerden, Marijn; Schnitzler, Alfons; Joëls, Marian; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2018-04-01

    People often exhibit prosocial tendencies towards close kin and friends, but generosity decreases as a function of increasing social distance between donor and recipient, a phenomenon called social discounting. Evidence suggests that acute stress affects prosocial behaviour in general and social discounting in particular. We tested the causal role of the important stress neuromodulators cortisol (CORT) and noradrenaline (NA) in this effect by considering two competing hypotheses. On the one hand, it is possible that CORT and NA act in concert to increase generosity towards socially close others by reducing the aversiveness of the cost component in costly altruism and enhancing the emotional salience of vicarious reward. Alternatively, it is equally plausible that CORT and NA exert dissociable, opposing effects on prosocial behaviour based on prior findings implicating CORT in social affiliation, and NA in aggressive and antagonistic tendencies. We pharmacologically manipulated CORT and NA levels in a sample of men (N = 150) and found that isolated hydrocortisone administration promoted prosocial tendencies towards close others, reflected in an altered social discount function, but this effect was offset by concurrent noradrenergic activation brought about by simultaneous yohimbine administration. These results provide inceptive evidence for causal, opposing roles of these two important stress neuromodulators on prosocial behaviour, and give rise to the possibility that, depending on the neuroendocrine response profile, stress neuromodulator action can foster both tend-and-befriend and fight-or-flight tendencies at the same time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Time discounting and pain anticipation. Experimental evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brañas Garza, Pablo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with pain anticipation experienced before medical procedures. our experimental results show that individuals with lower time discount factors are more prone to suffer pain in advance. We provide a framework to rationalize the connection between pain anticipation and impatience. in this set up, more impatient subjects, who only value very near events, mainly take into account the present negative effects of medical procedures (the costs, whereas more patient individuals have a net positive valuation of medical events, given that they are able to value both the cost incurred now and all the benefits to be accrued in the future.

    Este artículo trata de la anticipación del dolor experimentada antes de los procedimientos médicos. nuestros resultados experimentales muestran que los individuos con factor de descuento temporal más bajo son más proclives a sufrir dolor por adelantado. el artículo proporciona un marco en el que racionalizar la relación existente entre impaciencia y anticipación del dolor. en este marco, los sujetos más impacientes, que evalúan sólo los eventos muy próximos en el tiempo, focalizan su atención principalmente en los efectos negativos de los procedimientos médicos (sólo los costes, mientras que los individuos más pacientes tienen una valoración neta positiva de los actos médicos puesto que valoran tanto el coste en el que se incurre en el presente como los beneficios que se obtendrán en el futuro.

  14. Discounting Behaviour and the Magnitude Effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the claim that individuals exhibit a magnitude effect in their discounting behaviour, where higher discount rates are inferred from choices made with lower principals, all else being equal. If the magnitude effect is quantitatively significant, it is not appropriate to use one discount...... rate that is independent of the scale of the project for cost–benefit analysis and capital budgeting. Using data from a field experiment in Denmark, we find statistically significant evidence of a magnitude effect that is much smaller than is claimed. This evidence surfaces only if one controls...

  15. The weighted average cost of capital over the lifecycle of the firm: Is the overinvestment problem of mature firms intensified by a higher WACC?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos S. Garcia

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Firm lifecycle theory predicts that the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC will tend to fall over the lifecycle of the firm (Mueller, 2003, p. 80-81. However, given that previous research finds that corporate governance deteriorates as firms get older (Mueller and Yun, 1998; Saravia, 2014 there is good reason to suspect that the opposite could be the case, that is, that the WACC is higher for older firms. Since our literature review indicates that no direct tests to clarify this question have been carried out up till now, this paper aims to fill the gap by testing this prediction empirically. Our findings support the proposition that the WACC of younger firms is higher than that of mature firms. Thus, we find that the mature firm overinvestment problem is not intensified by a higher cost of capital, on the contrary, our results suggest that mature firms manage to invest in negative net present value projects even though they have access to cheaper capital. This finding sheds new light on the magnitude of the corporate governance problems found in mature firms.

  16. Estimation of social discount rate for Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilma Kazlauskiene

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper seeks to analyse the problematics of estimation of the social discount rate (SDR. The SDR is the critical parameter of cost-benefit analysis, which allows calculating the present value of cost and the benefit of public sector investment projects. Incorrect choice of the SDR can lead to the realisation of ineffective public project or conversely, cost-effective project will be rejected. The relevance of this problem analysis is determined by discussions and different viewpoints of scientists on the choice of the most appropriate approach to determine the SDR and absence of methodically based the SDR on the national level of Lithuania. Methodology/methods: The research is performed by the scientific and methodical literature analysis, systematization, time series and regression analysis. Scientific aim: The aim of the article is to calculate the SDR based on the statistical data of Lithuania. Findings: The analysis of methods of SDR determination, as well as the researches performed by foreign researchers, allows stating that the social rate of time preference (SRTP approach is the most appropriate. The SDR, calculated by the SRTP approach, reflects the main purpose of public investment projects, i.e. to enhance social benefit for society, the best. The analyses of SDR determination practice of the foreign countries shows that the SDR level should not be universal for all states. Each country should calculate the SDR based on its own data and apply it for the assessment of public projects. Conclusions: The calculated SDR for Lithuania using the SRTP approach varies between 3.5% and 4.3%. Although it is lower than 5% that is offered by European Commission, this rate is based on the statistical data of Lithuania and should be used for the assessment of the national public projects. Applicatio

  17. Positive mood effects on delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsh, Jacob B; Guindon, Alex; Morisano, Dominique; Peterson, Jordan B

    2010-10-01

    Delay discounting is the process by which the value of an expected reward decreases as the delay to obtaining that reward increases. Individuals with higher discounting rates tend to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. Previous research has indicated that personality can influence an individual's discounting rates, with higher levels of Extraversion predicting a preference for immediate gratification. The current study examined how this relationship would be influenced by situational mood inductions. While main effects were observed for both Extraversion and cognitive ability in the prediction of discounting rates, a significant interaction was also observed between Extraversion and positive affect. Extraverted individuals were more likely to prefer an immediate reward when first put in a positive mood. Extraverts thus appear particularly sensitive to impulsive, incentive-reward-driven behavior by temperament and by situational factors heightening positive affect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Discounting risks in the far future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Risks to life and health in the future must be discounted in quantitative risk analysis. Yet, risks in the distant future become trivialized if any reasonable constant interest rate is used. Our responsibility toward future generations rules out such drastic discounting. A solution to this problem is proposed here, resting on the ethical principle that our duty with respect to saving lives is the same to all generations, whether in the near or far future. It is shown that when a choice between prospects involving different risks has a financing horizon T, then ordinary principles of discounting apply up to this time T, while no further discounting is justifiable after T. The principle implies that risk events beyond the financing horizon should be valued as if they occurred at the financing horizon

  19. Time management problems and discounted utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Cornelius J; Kleinmann, Martin

    2007-05-01

    The lens of behavioral decision theory offers a new perspective for research on time management. The basic idea of this approach is that people discount future consequences of their time management decisions, meaning that they work on tasks with smaller but sooner outcomes rather than on tasks with larger but later outcomes. The authors performed 2 experimental studies to test whether people are sensitive to differences in the discounted utility of time management decisions. In Experiment 1, they used vignettes of typical time management situations; Experiment 2 was a laboratory simulation (an in-basket task that was part of a training assessment). Participants in both studies were German students. As expected, manipulating the discounted utility of options resulted in different time management decisions. In Experiment 1, reactions to time management situations were judged as less likely if the reactions had lower discounted utilities. In Experiment 2, people spent less time on an interruption.

  20. Do Declining Discount Rates lead to Time Inconsistent Economic Advice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anders Chr.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the risk of time inconsistency in economic appraisals related to the use of hyperbolic discounting (declining discount rates) instead of exponential discounting (constant discount rate). Many economists are uneasy about the prospects of potential time inconsistency. The paper...

  1. 7 CFR 1786.153 - Discounted present value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Discounted present value. 1786.153 Section 1786.153... Discounted Prepayments on RUS Electric Loans § 1786.153 Discounted present value. (a) The discounted present value shall be calculated by summing the present values of all remaining payments on all Qualified Notes...

  2. 7 CFR 1786.53 - Discounted present value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Discounted present value. 1786.53 Section 1786.53... Special Discounted Prepayments on RUS Direct/Insured Loans § 1786.53 Discounted present value. The Discounted Present Value shall be calculated five business days before prepayment is made by summing the...

  3. TD Waterhouse discount brokerage: a competitive strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Dangerfield, Catherine

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides a strategic analysis of TD Waterhouse (TDW), the discount brokerage provider within TD Bank Financial Group (TDBFG). Discount brokerage in Canada is an increasingly lucrative industry and contributes significantly to the bottom lines of every major financial institution in the country. It is also a rapidly changing and intensely price-competitive industry in which an explicit, educated business strategy is of the utmost importance. TDW currently employs a somewhat ambiguou...

  4. Discounting Models for Outcomes over Continuous Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harvey, Charles M.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Events that occur over a period of time can be described either as sequences of outcomes at discrete times or as functions of outcomes in an interval of time. This paper presents discounting models for events of the latter type. Conditions on preferences are shown to be satisfied if and only if t...... if the preferences are represented by a function that is an integral of a discounting function times a scale defined on outcomes at instants of time....

  5. ACCOUNTING TREATMENT FOR COMMERCIAL DISCOUNTS ON GOODS PURCHASED FOR RESALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HOLT GHEORGHE

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the specialized literature there are two major categories of discounts applied between business partners: trade discounts and financial discounts. In terms of accounting, the method of calculation of interest is commercial and financial cuts, especially the tax treatment of them. Trade discounts are applied prior to financial services, and both types of discounts are calculated on the net earlier. Discounts are calculated after applying discounts and special an issue is to know the level of rebates, which are determined periodically based on the turnover.

  6. The effect of discounting, different mortality reduction schemes and predictive cohort life tables on risk acceptability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rackwitz, Ruediger

    2006-01-01

    Technical facilities should be optimal with respect to benefits and cost. Optimization of technical facilities involving risks for human life and limb require an acceptability criterion and suitable discount rates both for the public and the operator depending on for whom the optimization is carried out. The life quality index is presented and embedded into modem socio-economic concepts. A general risk acceptability criterion is derived. The societal life saving cost to be used in optimization as life saving or compensation cost and the societal willingness-to-pay based on the societal value of a statistical life or on the societal life quality index are developed. Different mortality reduction schemes are studied. Also, predictive cohort life tables are derived and applied. Discount rates γ must be long-term averages in view of the time horizon of some 20 to more than 100 years for the facilities of interest and net of inflation and taxes. While the operator may use long-term averages from the financial market for his cost-benefit analysis the assessment of interest rates for investments of the public into risk reduction is more difficult. The classical Ramsey model decomposes the real interest rate (=output growth rate) into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is proposed to use a relatively small interest rate of 3% implying a rate of time preference of consumption of about 1%. This appears intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Risk-consequence curves are derived for an example

  7. Observed and Normative Discount Functions in Addiction and other Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Cruz Rambaud, Salvador; Mu?oz Torrecillas, Mar?a J.; Takahashi, Taiki

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to find a suitable discount function able to describe the progression of a certain addiction or disease under treatment as a discounting process. In effect, a certain indicator related to a disease decays over time in a manner which is mathematically similar to the way in which discounting has been modeled. We analyze the discount functions observed in experiments which study addictive and other problematic behaviors as well as some alternative hyperbola-like discount...

  8. Sleep deprivation alters effort discounting but not delay discounting of monetary rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libedinsky, Camilo; Massar, Stijn A A; Ling, Aiqing; Chee, Weiyan; Huettel, Scott A; Chee, Michael W L

    2013-06-01

    To determine whether sleep deprivation would affect the discounting of delayed rewards, of rewards entailing the expense of effort, or both. We measured rates of two types of reward discounting under conditions of rested wakefulness (RW) and sleep deprivation (SD). Delay discounting was defined as the willingness to accept smaller monetary rewards sooner rather than larger monetary rewards later. Effort discounting was defined as the willingness to accept smaller rewards that require less effort to obtain (e.g., typing a small number of letter strings backward) over larger but more effortful rewards (e.g., typing more letter strings to receive the reward). The first two experiments used a crossover design in which one session was conducted after a normal night of sleep (RW), and the other after a night without sleep (SD). The first experiment evaluated only temporal discounting whereas the second evaluated temporal and effort discounting. In the second experiment, the discounting tasks were repeatedly administered prior to the state comparisons to minimize the effects of order and/or repeated testing. In a third experiment, participants were studied only once in a between-subject evaluation of discounting across states. The study took place in a research laboratory. Seventy-seven healthy young adult participants: 20 in Experiment 1, 27 in Experiment 2, and 30 in Experiment 3. N/A. Sleep deprivation elicited increased effort discounting but did not affect delay discounting. The dissociable effects of sleep deprivation on two forms of discounting behavior suggest that they may have differing underlying neural mechanisms.

  9. A review of the IEA/NEA Projected Costs of Electricity – 2015 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatib, Hisham

    2016-01-01

    The IEA/NEA recently issued their eighth edition of the Study on the “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” – 2015 edition. The Study is mainly concerned with calculating the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE). The LCOE calculations are based on a levelised average life time cost approach using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The analysis was this year, and for the first time, performed using three discount rates (3%, 7%, and 10%). The LCOE can serve as a tool for calculating the cost of different generation technologies. However the Study's usefulness is affected by its narrow base of a limited set of countries that are not necessarily representative. It ignored the negative role of subsidies and did not provide a methodology for selective application of the discount rates and costing of carbon. The global power generation scene is changing. Generation growth in OECD countries has become very limited; simultaneously there is rapid growth of varying renewables (VRE) generation which needs special criteria for assessing its system cost. All this demands a rethinking of the application and usefulness of the LCOE in future generation planning. - Highlights: • LCOE is a useful tool for economics of generation technologies. • The IEA/NEA study did not cover fully the required criteria for assessment. • It ignored interpretation of: the discount rate, carbon costing and subsidies. • The world energy scene is changing, this requires reassessment of LCOE.

  10. Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

    2011-01-01

    Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Analytical solution to the circularity problem in the discounted cash flow valuation framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Mejía-Peláez

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose an analytical solution to the circularity problem between value and cost of capital. Our solution is derived starting from a central principle of finance that relates value today to value, cash flow, and the discount rate for next period. We present a general formulation without circularity for the equity value (E, cost of levered equity (Ke, levered firm value (V, and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC. We furthermore compare the results obtained from these formulas with the results of the application of the Adjusted Present Value approach (no circularity and the iterative solution of circularity based upon the iteration feature of a spreadsheet, concluding that all methods yield exactly the same answer. The advantage of this solution is that it avoids problems such as using manual methods (i.e., the popular “Rolling WACC” ignoring the circularity issue, setting a target leverage (usually constant with the inconsistencies that result from it, the wrong use of book values, or attributing the discrepancies in values to rounding errors.

  12. Discount cosmetic surgery: industry trends and strategies for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Lloyd M

    2002-08-01

    likely a small segment of the overall patient population. Plastic surgeons that buck the trend toward discount cosmetic surgery must take concrete and potentially costly steps to implement a plausible strategy for distinguishing their practices within the crowded cosmetic surgery market.

  13. 10% discount at Novae restaurants for students

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    A 10% discount will be granted for students dining in restaurants 1 and 2 (on the Meyrin site) during the summer from 15 June 2016 to 15 September 2016.   A special badge will be issued by the respective secretariats if the student fulfils the following criteria:  Is under 25 years old; Is in possession of a student card issued by a University or college; Has a CERN contract > 1 month (Users, Summer Students, Trainees, etc). This badge and the CERN access card will have to be shown at the Novae restaurants in order to benefit from this discount.

  14. An adaptive, individualized fMRI delay discounting procedure to increase flexibility and optimize scanner time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Deshpande, Harshawardhan U; Lisinski, Jonathan M; Eklund, Anders; Bickel, Warren K; LaConte, Stephen M

    2017-11-01

    Research on the rate at which people discount the value of future rewards has become increasingly prevalent as discount rate has been shown to be associated with many unhealthy patterns of behavior such as drug abuse, gambling, and overeating. fMRI research points to a fronto-parietal-limbic pathway that is active during decisions between smaller amounts of money now and larger amounts available after a delay. Researchers in this area have used different variants of delay discounting tasks and reported various contrasts between choice trials of different types from these tasks. For instance, researchers have compared 1) choices of delayed monetary amounts to choices of the immediate monetary amounts, 2) 'hard' choices made near one's point of indifference to 'easy' choices that require little thought, and 3) trials where an immediate choice is available versus trials where one is unavailable, regardless of actual eventual choice. These differences in procedure and analysis make comparison of results across studies difficult. In the present experiment, we designed a delay discounting task with the intended capability of being able to construct contrasts of all three comparisons listed above while optimizing scanning time to reduce costs and avoid participant fatigue. This was accomplished with an algorithm that customized the choice trials presented to each participant with the goal of equalizing choice trials of each type. We compared this task, which we refer to here as the individualized discounting task (IDT), to two other delay discounting tasks previously reported in the literature (McClure et al., 2004; Amlung et al., 2014) in 18 participants. Results show that the IDT can examine each of the three contrasts mentioned above, while yielding a similar degree of activation as the reference tasks. This suggests that this new task could be used in delay discounting fMRI studies to allow researchers to more easily compare their results to a majority of previous

  15. On Discounting of Health Gains from Human Papillomavirus Vaccination : Effects of Different Approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westra, Tjalke A.; Parouty, Mehraj; Brouwer, Werner B.; Beutels, Philippe H.; Rogoza, Raina M.; Rozenbaum, Mark H.; Daemen, Toos; Wilschut, Jan C.; Boersma, Cornelis; Postma, Maarten J.

    Objectives: Discounting has long been a matter of controversy in the field of health economic evaluations. How to weigh future health effects has resulted in ongoing discussions. These discussions are imminently relevant for health care interventions with current costs but future benefits. Different

  16. "Just Give Me a Number!" Practical Values for the Social Discount Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Mark A.; Boardman, Anthony E.; Vining, Aidan R.; Weimer, David L.; Greenberg, David H.

    2004-01-01

    A major reason the quality of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) varies widely is inconsistent use of the social discount rate (SDR). This article offers guidance about the choice of the SDR. Namely, we recommend the following procedures: If the project is intragenerational (does not have effects beyond 50 years) and there is no crowding out of private…

  17. Determining Optimal Discount Policies for a Supplier in B2B Relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhayenko, Viktoryia; van Eikenhorst, Erik

    the total discount offered is greater than their total cost increase. This research assumes zero or low price elasticity of the demand, thus lower prices do not result in greater total demand, they only affect when orders will be placed. A heuristic solution is given by separating the problem into when...

  18. Payers' experiences with confidential pharmaceutical price discounts: A survey of public and statutory health systems in North America, Europe, and Australasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Steven G; Vogler, Sabine; Wagner, Anita K

    2017-04-01

    Institutional payers for pharmaceuticals worldwide appear to be increasingly negotiating confidential discounts off of the official list price of pharmaceuticals purchased in the community setting. We conducted an anonymous survey about experiences with and attitudes toward confidential discounts on patented pharmaceuticals in a sample of high-income countries. Confidential price discounts are now common among the ten health systems that participated in our study, though some had only recently begun to use these pricing arrangements on a routine basis. Several health systems had used a wide variety of discounting schemes in the past two years. The most frequent discount received by participating health systems was between 20% and 29% of official list prices; however, six participants reported their health system received one or more discount over the past two years that was valued at 60% or more of the list prices. On average, participants reported that confidential discounts were more common, complex, and significant for specialty pharmaceuticals than for primary care pharmaceuticals. Participants had a more favorable view of the impact of confidential discount schemes on their health systems than on the global marketplace. Overall, the frequency, complexity, and scale of confidential discounts being routinely negotiated suggest that the list prices for medicines bear limited resemblance to what many institutional payers actually pay. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Discounts at the Carlson Wagonlit travel agency

    CERN Document Server

    2008-01-01

    The Carlson Wagonlit travel agency is offering exceptional discounts of up to 40% for bookings with M-Travel before 29 February 2008 and Helvetic Tours before 30 March 2008. For terms and conditions and further information please contact the CERN Carlson Wagonlit Travel office, Main Building (500), Tel. 72763.

  20. Skiba points for small discount rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagener, F.O.O.

    2006-01-01

    The present article uses perturbation techniques to approximate the value function of an economic minimization problem for small values of the discount rate. This can be used to obtain the approximate location of the Skiba states in the problem; these are states for which there are two distinct

  1. Discounted Markov games : generalized policy iteration method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, van der J.

    1978-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two-person zero-sum discounted Markov games with finite state and action spaces. We show that the Newton-Raphson or policy iteration method as presented by Pollats-chek and Avi-Itzhak does not necessarily converge, contradicting a proof of Rao, Chandrasekaran, and Nair.

  2. Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, R.G.; Pizer, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Consequences in the distant future - such as those from climate change--have little value today when discounted using conventional rates. This result contradicts our 'gut feeling' about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons - a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons. We review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and, importantly, the impact of likely variation in rates in the future. Correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate, thereby raising the value of future consequences - regardless of opinions concerning the current rate. Using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates, we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more, almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4% discounting. Ironically, uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate

  3. A Delay Discounting Model of Psychotherapy Termination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift, Joshua K.; Callahan, Jennifer L.

    2009-01-01

    Delay discounting (DD) procedures are emerging as an important new method for psychotherapy researchers. In this paper a framework for conceptualizing existing, seemingly discrepant, research findings on termination is introduced and new directions for research are described. To illustrate the value of a DD framework, the common psychotherapy…

  4. Win-Win Strategies at Discount Stores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Deleersnyder (Barbara); M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); J-B.E.M. Steenkamp (Jan-Benedict); O. Koll (Oliver)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractAn important development that contributes to store brands’ growing success in the grocery market is the increasing number of discount stores that sell predominantly own, private-label, brands. To fight private labels, manufacturers of national brands feel increasingly compelled to

  5. Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

    2011-01-01

    The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…

  6. The value-based medicine comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of penetrating keratoplasty for keratoconus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roe, Richard H; Lass, Jonathan H; Brown, Gary C; Brown, Melissa M

    2008-10-01

    To perform a base case, comparative effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness (cost-utility) analysis of penetrating keratoplasty for patients with severe keratoconus. Visual acuity data were obtained from a large, retrospective multicenter study in which patients with keratoconus with less than 20/40 best corrected visual acuity and/or the inability to wear contact lenses underwent penetrating keratoplasty, with an average follow-up of 2.1 years. The results were combined with other retrospective studies investigating complication rates of penetrating keratoplasty. The data were then incorporated into a cost-utility model using patient preference-based, time trade-off utilities, computer-based decision analysis, and a net present value model to account for the time value of outcomes and money. The comparative effectiveness of the intervention is expressed in quality-of-life gain and QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years), and the cost-effectiveness results are expressed in the outcome of $/QALY (dollars spent per QALY). Penetrating keratoplasty in 1 eye for patients with severe keratoconus results in a comparative effectiveness (value gain) of 16.5% improvement in quality of life every day over the 44-year life expectancy of the average patient with severe keratoconus. Discounting the total value gain of 5.36 QALYs at a 3% annual discount rate yields 3.05 QALYs gained. The incremental cost for penetrating keratoplasty, including all complications, is $5934 ($5913 discounted at 3% per year). Thus, the incremental cost-utility (discounted at 3% annually) for this intervention is $5913/3.05 QALYs = $1942/QALY. If both eyes undergo corneal transplant, the total discounted value gain is 30% and the overall cost-utility is $2003. Surgery on the second eye confers a total discounted value gain of 2.5 QALYs, yielding a quality-of-life gain of 11.6% and a discounted cost-utility of $2238/QALY. Penetrating keratoplasty for patients with severe keratoconus seems to be a

  7. A discount ordering strategy in two-level supply chain: A case study of textile industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laleh Tashakori

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection, inventory management and optimal lot sizing has been one of the most important issues in many industries especially in production planning issues associated with texture industry. The proposed model of this paper first introduces an algorithm to choose the best supplier and it determines the optimal lot size using discount strategy. The proposed model of this paper considers different influencing factors such as location, quality of materials, cost, and mutual trust for supplier selection, determines their relative importance weights and then a discounting method is used to determine the ordering lot-size. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper can be implemented in texture industry, very efficiently since the ordering discount policy is not sensitive to changes on inventory holding and setup expenditures.

  8. Measurement-theoretic foundations of time discounting in economics

    OpenAIRE

    Conrad Heilmann

    2008-01-01

    In economics, the concept of time discounting introduces weights on future goods to make these less valuable. Yet, both the conceptual motivation for time discounting and its specic functional form remain contested. To address these problems, this paper provides a measurement-theoretic framework of representation for time discounting. The representation theorem characterises time discounting factors by representations of time dierences. This general result can be interpreted with existing the...

  9. Do the Powerful Discount the Future Less? The Effects of Power on Temporal Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jinyun; Wu, Sherry J; Sun, Luying

    2017-01-01

    Individuals have the tendency to discount rewards in the future, known as temporal discounting, and we find that sense of power (the felt capacity to influence the thinking and behavior of others) reduces such tendency. In Studies 1 and 2, we used both an experiment and a survey with organizational employees to demonstrate that power reduced temporal discounting. In Study 3, we replicated study 1 while exploring a unique cultural trait of Danbo , or indifference to fame and wealth, across two ethnic groups (Han and Tibetan groups) in China. While power reduces temporal discounting, the relationship between the two may be leveraged by individual differences of optimism, frustration, and Danbo . The results imply a more nuanced interpretation of how individual and situational factors can affect intertemporal choice.

  10. Destination discount : A sensible road for national brands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deleersnyder, B.; Koll, O.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to study the consequences of listing national brands in discounters. Is the discount channel a promising outlet for manufacturer brands? Is it an effective means to attract new buyers? Which combination of brand and discount destination at which price is best suited for

  11. 48 CFR 952.251-70 - Contractor employee travel discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Contractor employee travel... Contractor employee travel discounts. As prescribed in 951.7002, insert the following clause: Contractor Employee Travel Discounts (AUG 2009) (a) The Contractor shall take advantage of travel discounts offered to...

  12. 7 CFR 1786.98 - Discounted present value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Discounted present value. 1786.98 Section 1786.98... Discounted present value. (a) The Discounted Present Value shall be calculated by RUS before prepayment is made by summing the present values of all remaining payments on all outstanding notes according to the...

  13. Discounting medical malpractice claim reserves for self-insured hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frese, Richard; Kitchen, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    The hospital CFO often works with the hospital's actuary and external auditor to calculate the reserves recorded in financial statements. Hospital management, usually the CFO, needs to decide the discount rate that is most appropriate. A formal policy addressing the rationale for discounting and the rationale for selecting the discount rate can be helpful to the CFO, actuary, and external auditor.

  14. The discount rate in the economic evaluation of prevention: a thought experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneux, L; Birnie, E

    2001-02-01

    In the standard economic model of evaluation, constant discount rates devalue the long term health benefits of prevention strongly. This study shows that it is unlikely that this reflects societal preference. A thought experiment in a cause elimination life table calculates savings of eliminating cardiovascular disease from the Dutch population. A cost effectiveness analysis calculates the acceptable costs of such an intervention at a threshold of 18 000 Euro per saved life year. Cause specific mortality (all cardiovascular causes of death and all other causes) and health care costs (all costs of cardiovascular disease and all other causes of costs) by age and male sex of 1994. At a 0% discount rate, an intervention eliminating cardiovascular disease may cost 71 100 Euro. At the same threshold but at discount rates of 3% or 6%, the same intervention may cost 8100 Euro (8.8 times less) or 1100 Euro (65 times less). The standard economic model needs more realistic duration dependent models of time preference, which reflect societal preference.

  15. Probabilistic Discounting of Hypothetical Monetary Gains: University Students Differ in How They Discount "Won" and "Owed" Money

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N.; Derenne, Adam

    2013-01-01

    The present study tested whether participants would discount "won" money differently than they would "owed" money in a probability-discounting task. Participants discounted $1000 or $100,000 that they had won in a sweepstakes or that was owed to them using the multiple-choice (Experiment 1) or fill-in-the-blank (Experiment 2) method of collecting…

  16. Discount rate in the spent fuel storage and disposal fee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forster, J.D.; Cohen, S.

    1980-04-01

    After introducing the financial analyses, discount rates, and interest rates involved, the study discusses existing government guidelines for establishing charges for any service provided by the government to be paid by users of those services. Three current government user charges are analyzed including specifically their interest rate policies and how these charges provide precedent for the spent fuel acceptance and disposal fee: uranium enrichment services, the sale of electric power, and the delivery of experiments to orbit by the NASA Space Shuttle. The current DOE policy regarding this storage and disposal fee is stated and discussed. Features of this policy include: the full government cost is borne by users of the services provided; the fee is established and due in full at the time of spent fuel delivery; and the fee is adjusted when spent fuel is transferred from the AFR to the repository. Four evaluation criteria for use in analyzing the applications of discount rates in the spent fuel acceptance fee calculation are discussed. Three outstanding issues are discussed

  17. Deeply discounted medications: Implications of generic prescription drug wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czechowski, Jessica L; Tjia, Jennifer; Triller, Darren M

    2010-01-01

    To describe the history of generic prescription pricing programs at major pharmacy chains and their potential implications on prescribing, quality of care, and patient safety. Publicly available generic prescription discount program drug lists as of May 1, 2009. Fierce competition among major pharmacy chains such as Walgreens, CVS, and Walmart has led to a generic prescription pricing war with unclear public health implications. Introduced in 2006, currently 7 of the 10 largest pharmacy chains advertise a version of a deeply discounted medication (DDM) program, accounting for more than 25,000 locations nationally. By early 2008, almost 70 million Americans had used these programs. Although DDM programs lower drug costs for many patients, DDM formularies include potentially ineffective or harmful medications, have the potential to influence physician prescribing behavior, and may impair pharmacists' ability to review complete drug-dispensing records. DDMs are widespread but have the potential for unintended consequences on patients, providers, and the health care system. A systematic review of DDMs needs to evaluate the clinical, economic, and system-level implications of such programs.

  18. ChargeOut! : discounted cash flow compared with traditional machine-rate analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ted Bilek

    2008-01-01

    ChargeOut!, a discounted cash-flow methodology in spreadsheet format for analyzing machine costs, is compared with traditional machine-rate methodologies. Four machine-rate models are compared and a common data set representative of logging skidders’ costs is used to illustrate the differences between ChargeOut! and the machine-rate methods. The study found that the...

  19. Delay Discounting: Pigeon, Rat, Human – Does it Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderveldt, Ariana; Oliveira, Luís; Green, Leonard

    2016-01-01

    Delay discounting refers to the decrease in subjective value of an outcome as the time to its receipt increases. Across species and situations, animals discount delayed rewards, and their discounting is well-described by a hyperboloid function. The current review begins with a comparison of discounting models and the procedures used to assess delay discounting in nonhuman animals. We next discuss the generality of discounting, reviewing the effects of different variables on the degree of discounting delayed reinforcers by nonhuman animals. Despite the many similarities in discounting observed between human and nonhuman animals, several differences have been proposed (e.g., the magnitude effect; nonhuman animals discount over a matter of seconds whereas humans report willing to wait months, if not years before receiving a reward), raising the possibility of fundamental species differences in intertemporal choice. After evaluating these differences, we discuss delay discounting from an adaptationist perspective. The pervasiveness of discounting across species and situations suggests it is a fundamental process underlying decision making. PMID:26881899

  20. Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabris, Christopher F; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Taubinsky, Dmitry

    2008-12-01

    We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

  1. Towards a social discount rate for the economic evaluation of health technologies in Germany: an exploratory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schad, Mareike; John, Jürgen

    2012-04-01

    Over the last decades, methods for the economic evaluation of health care technologies were increasingly used to inform reimbursement decisions. For a short time, the German Statutory Health Insurance makes use of these methods to support reimbursement decisions on patented drugs. In this context, the discounting procedure emerges as a critical component of these methods, as discount rates can strongly affect the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The aim of this paper is to identify the appropriate value of a social discount rate to be used by the German Statutory Health Insurance for the economic evaluation of health technologies. On theoretical grounds, we build on the widespread view of contemporary economists that the social rate of time preference (SRTP) is the adequate social discount rate. For quantifying the SRTP, we first apply the market behaviour approach, which assumes that the SRTP is reflected in observable market interest rates. As a second approach, we derive the SRTP from optimal growth theory by using the Ramsey equation. A major part of the paper is devoted to specify the parameters of this equation. Depending on various assumptions, our empirical findings result in the range of 1.75-4.2% for the SRTP. A reasonable base case discount rate for Germany, thus, would be about 3%. Furthermore, we deal with the much debated question whether a common discount rate for costs and health benefits or a lower rate for health should be applied in health economic evaluations. In the German social health insurance system, no exogenously fixed budget constraint does exist. When evaluating a new health technology, the health care decision maker is obliged to conduct an economic evaluation in order to examine whether there is an economically appropriate relation between the value of the health gains and the additional costs which are given by the value of the consumption losses due to the additional health care expenditures. Therefore, a discount

  2. Is there time discounting for risk premium?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shavit, Tal; Rosenboim, Mosi

    2015-03-01

    Individuals with a higher subjective discount rate concentrate more on the present and delay is more significant for them. However, when a risky asset is delayed, not only is the outcome delayed but also the risk. In this paper, we suggest a new, two-stage experimental method with real monetary incentives that allows us to distinguish between the effect of the risk and the effect of the time when pricing a risky asset. We show that when individuals have greater preference for the present, their risk aversion for a risky asset realized in the future decreases. We argue that the effect of the risk for future asset is lower for individuals with higher time preference because they discount not only the outcome but also the risks. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  3. Discount method for programming language evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurtev, Svetomir; Christensen, Tommy Aagaard; Thomsen, Bent

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents work in progress on developing a Discount Method for Programming Language Evaluation inspired by the Discount Usability Evaluation method (Benyon 2010) and the Instant Data Analysis method (Kjeldskov et al. 2004). The method is intended to bridge the gap between small scale...... internal language design evaluation methods and large scale surveys and quantitative evaluation methods. The method is designed to be applicable even before a compiler or IDE is developed for a new language. To test the method, a usability evaluation experiment was carried out on the Quorum programming...... language (Stefik et al. 2016) using programmers with experience in C and C#. When comparing our results with previous studies of Quorum, most of the data was comparable though not strictly in agreement. However, the discrepancies were mainly related to the programmers pre-existing expectations...

  4. Tobacco demand, delay discounting, and smoking topography among smokers with and without psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Abrantes, Ana M; Zvolensky, Michael J

    2017-10-01

    Tobacco demand (i.e., relative value attributed to a given reinforcer) and delay discounting (i.e., relative preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards) are two behavioral economic processes that are linked to the progression of problematic substance use. These processes have not been studied among those with psychopathology, a vulnerable group of smokers. The current study examined differences in tobacco demand and delay discounting, and their association with smoking topography among smokers with (n=43) and without (n=64) past-year psychopathology. Adult daily smokers (n=107,M age =43.5; SD=9.7) participated in a study on "smoking behavior." Past-year psychological disorders were assessed via a clinician-administered diagnostic assessment. All subjects participated in an ad libitum smoking trial and then completed an assessment of delay discounting (Monetary Choice Questionnaire) and tobacco demand (Cigarette Purchase Task) approximately 45-60min post-smoking. Smokers with psychopathology, compared to those without, had significantly higher demand intensity and maximum expenditure on tobacco (O max ), but did not differ on other demand indices or delay discounting. Smokers with psychopathology had shorter average inter-puff intervals and shorter time to cigarette completion than smokers without psychopathology. Tobacco demand and delay discounting measures were significantly intercorrelated among smokers with psychopathology, but not those without. Both behavioral economic measures were associated with specific aspects of smoking topography in smokers with psychopathology. The association between tobacco demand and delay discounting is evident among smokers with psychopathology and both measures were most consistently related to smoking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Accounting and Tax Issues Concerning Commercial Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sava Raluca

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Commercial discounts accounting presents a particular importance because, on the one hand, of their widely spread on a large scale in the commercial activity and on the second hand, due to the influence of the accounting and reporting method over the value added tax. The paper theoretically addresses commercial reductions and also their reflection in the accounting according with the latest regulations in force.

  6. The economic feasibility of price discounts to improve diet in Australian Aboriginal remote communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Anne; Moodie, Marj L; Ferguson, Megan; Cobiac, Linda J; Liberato, Selma C; Brimblecombe, Julie

    2016-04-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of fiscal measures applied in remote community food stores for Aboriginal Australians. Six price discount strategies on fruit, vegetables, diet drinks and water were modelled. Baseline diet was measured as 12 months' actual food sales data in three remote Aboriginal communities. Discount-induced changes in food purchases were based on published price elasticity data while the weight of the daily diet was assumed constant. Dietary change was converted to change in sodium and energy intake, and body mass index (BMI) over a 12-month period. Improved lifetime health outcomes, modelled for the remote population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) saved using a proportional multistate lifetable model populated with diet-related disease risks and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rates of disease. While dietary change was small, five of the six price discount strategies were estimated as cost-effective, below a $50,000/DALY threshold. Stakeholders are committed to finding ways to reduce important inequalities in health status between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and non-Indigenous Australians. Price discounts offer potential to improve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. Verification of these results by trial-based research coupled with consideration of factors important to all stakeholders is needed. © 2015 The Authors.

  7. Positive autobiographical memory retrieval reduces temporal discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Speer, Megan E; Delgado, Mauricio R; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2017-10-01

    People generally prefer rewards sooner rather than later. This phenomenon, temporal discounting, underlies many societal problems, including addiction and obesity. One way to reduce temporal discounting is to imagine positive future experiences. Since there is overlap in the neural circuitry associated with imagining future experiences and remembering past events, here we investigate whether recalling positive memories can also promote more patient choice. We found that participants were more patient after retrieving positive autobiographical memories, but not when they recalled negative memories. Moreover, individuals were more impulsive after imagining novel positive scenes that were not related to their memories, showing that positive imagery alone does not drive this effect. Activity in the striatum and temporo parietal junction during memory retrieval predicted more patient choice, suggesting that to the extent that memory recall is rewarding and involves perspective-taking, it influences decision-making. Furthermore, representational similarity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex between memory recall and decision phases correlated with the behavioral effect across participants. Thus, we have identified a novel manipulation for reducing temporal discounting-remembering the positive past-and have begun to characterize the psychological and neural mechanisms behind it. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

  8. In-gap discounts in Medicare Part D and specialty drug use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jeah; Xu, Wendy Yi; Cheong, Chelim

    2017-09-01

    Specialty drugs can bring significant benefits to patients, but they can be expensive. Medicare Part D plans charge relatively high cost-sharing costs for specialty drugs. A provision in the Affordable Care Act reduced cost sharing in the Part D coverage gap phase in an attempt to mitigate the financial burden of beneficiaries with high drug spending. We examined the early impact of the Part D in-gap discount on specialty cancer drug use and patients' out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Natural experimental design. We compared changes in outcomes before and after the in-gap discount among beneficiaries with and without low-income subsidies (LIS). Beneficiaries with LIS, who were not affected by the in-gap discount, made up the control group. We studied a random sample of elderly standalone prescription drug plan enrollees with relatively uncommon cancers (eg, leukemia, skin, pancreas, kidney, sarcomas, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma) between 2009 and 2013. We constructed 4 outcome variables annually: 1) use of any specialty cancer drug, 2) the number of specialty cancer drug fills, 3) total specialty drug spending, and 4) OOP spending for specialty cancer drugs. The in-gap discount did not influence specialty cancer drug use, but reduced annual OOP spending for specialty cancer drugs among users without LIS by $1108. In-gap discounts in Part D decreased patients' financial burden to some extent, but resulted in no change in specialty drug use. As demand for specialty drugs increases, it will be important to ensure patients' access to needed drugs, while simultaneously reducing their financial burden.

  9. Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jun Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

  10. Heroin and cocaine abusers have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than alcoholics or non-drug-using controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Kris N; Petry, Nancy M

    2004-04-01

    To test a prediction of the discounting model of impulsiveness that discount rates would be positively associated with addiction. The delay-discount rate refers to the rate of reduction in the present value of a future reward as the delay to that reward increases. We estimated participants' discount rates on the basis of their pattern of choices between smaller immediate rewards ($11-80) and larger, delayed rewards ($25-85; at delays from 1 week to 6 months) in a questionnaire format. Participants had a one-in-six chance of winning a reward that they chose on one randomly selected trial. Heroin (n = 27), cocaine (n = 41) and alcohol (n = 33) abusers and non-drug-using controls (n = 44) were recruited from advertisements. They were tested in a drug abuse research clinic at a medical school. On average, the cocaine and heroin groups had higher rates than controls (both P rates for heroin abusers (P = 0.03), but not for cocaine or alcohol abusers (both P > 0.50). These data suggest that discount rates vary with the preferred drug of abuse, and that high discount rates should be considered in the development of substance abuse prevention and treatment efforts.

  11. Episodic Future Thinking about the Ideal Self Induces Lower Discounting, Leading to a Decreased Tendency toward Cheating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wen-Hsiung; Cheng, Wen; Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2017-01-01

    Delay discounting refers to a pervasive tendency toward preferring smaller immediate gains over larger future gains. Recent empirical research has shown that episodic future thinking (EFT; i.e., projecting oneself into the future to pre-experience forthcoming events) can reduce the tendency toward discounting. A common tenet of psychological theories of crime is that delinquency results from focusing on short-term gains while failing to consider adequately the longer-term consequences of delinquent behavior. We investigated whether an EFT intervention involving the ideal self could induce lower discounting rates and, as a consequence, reduced delinquency. The results showed that, compared with control participants, participants engaging in EFT, that is, envisaging life events that would be experienced by their ideal selves, exhibited a lower discounting rate in a monetary choice task (Experiments 1 and 2), as well as a decreased tendency to make delinquent choices in imaginary scenarios (Experiment 1) and cheat in a matrix task (Experiment 2). The discounting tendency mediated the relationship between engaging in EFT pertaining to the ideal self and the tendency toward morally questionable behavior (Experiments 1 and 2). The findings of the two experiments indicate that engagement in EFT with a focus on the ideal self is sufficient to induce lower discounting rates, by promoting consideration of distant costs and thus increasing resistance to delinquent involvement and cheating (given the temptation of the immediate benefits that may accrue from such behavior). The current research constitutes an innovative approach to delinquency prevention and the promotion of morality.

  12. Drinking status but not acute alcohol consumption influences delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Sally; Attwood, Angela S; Munafò, Marcus R

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the following: (a) the effects of acute alcohol on delay discounting; (b) the effects of drinking status on delayed discounting; and (c) whether these effects differ according to reward type (alcohol vs. money). Heavy and light social alcohol users (n = 96) were randomized to receive either an acute dose of alcohol at 0.4 or 0.6 g/kg or placebo in a between-subjects, double-blind design. Delay discounting of alcohol and monetary rewards was measured using a hyperbolic model, with higher scores indicative of greater delay discounting. ANOVA of discount scores indicated a main effect of reward type, where all participants had higher discount scores for alcohol versus money rewards. A main effect of drinking status was also observed, where heavier drinkers had higher discount scores compared with lighter drinkers. We did not observe a main effect of acute alcohol use on delay discounting or the hypothesized interactions between acute alcohol use and drinking status with reward type. Our data suggest that heavier drinkers discount the value of delayed rewards more steeply than lighter drinkers. Delay discounting may therefore be a promising marker of heavy alcohol consumption in social drinkers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Observed and Normative Discount Functions in Addiction and other Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz Rambaud, Salvador; Muñoz Torrecillas, María J; Takahashi, Taiki

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to find a suitable discount function able to describe the progression of a certain addiction or disease under treatment as a discounting process. In effect, a certain indicator related to a disease decays over time in a manner which is mathematically similar to the way in which discounting has been modeled. We analyze the discount functions observed in experiments which study addictive and other problematic behaviors as well as some alternative hyperbola-like discount functions in order to fit the patience exhibited by the subject after receiving the treatment. Additionally, it has been experimentally found that people with addiction display high rates of discount (impatience) and preference reversals (dynamic inconsistency). This excessive discounting must be correctly modeled by a suitable discount function, otherwise, it can become a trans-disease process underlying addiction and other disorders. The (generalized) exponentiated hyperbolic discount function is proposed to describe the progression of a disease with respect to the treatment, since it maintains the property of inconsistency by exhibiting a decreasing discount rate after an initial period in which the opposite occurs.

  14. Expanding the usefulness of unit supply cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenzie, M.B.; Petr, K.

    1992-01-01

    Unit supply cost is a widely used tool in the energy business for providing a one number-unit cost description. For example, controllable costs such as finding costs, development costs and operating costs have traditionally been described in an average cost per unit of reserves format for the oil and gas industry, however using this approach on more specific applications is not always informative. Projects with widely varying controllable parameters can still yield the same unit cost, making comparisons difficult. The application of unit supply cost can be readily expanded by adding a new unit cost component termed cost of capital. This element introduces the impacts of timing and return on investment into the supply cost determination through discounting annual costs. The cost of capital component adds the ability to represent a project's unique characteristics, particularly reserves' depletion rate and the timing or phasing of development. Introducing the cost of capital element into the supply cost analysis provides additional information and improves the likelihood of drawing correct conclusions when comparing and ranking projects. 4 figs., 6 tabs

  15. Lifetime Costs and Outcomes of Repair of Tetralogy of Fallot Compared to Natural Progression of the Disease: Great Ormond Street Hospital Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Rachael Maree; Isaac, Mark; Frigiola, Alessandra; Blundell, David; Brown, Kate; Bull, Kate

    2013-01-01

    Background Tetralogy of Fallot is a congenital heart disease that requires surgical repair without which survival through childhood is extremely rare. The aim of this paper is to use data from the mandatory follow-up of patients with Tetralogy of Fallot to model the health-related costs and outcomes over the first 55-years of life. Method A decision analytical model was developed to establish costs and outcomes for patients up to 55 years after diagnosis and first repair of Tetralogy of Fallot compared to natural progression. Data from Adult Congenital Heart Disease (ACHD) centres that follow up Tetralogy of Fallot patients and Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), London, United Kingdom (UK) medical records was used to establish the cost and effectiveness of current interventions. Data from a Czech cohort was used for the natural, no intervention condition. Results The average cost per patient of a repair for Tetralogy of Fallot was £26,938 (SE = £4,140). The full life time cost per patient, with no discount rate, was £65,310 (95% CI £64,981–£65,729); £56,559 discounted (95% CI £56,159–£56,960). Patients with a repair had an average of 35 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per patient over 55 years undiscounted and 20.16 QALYs discounted. If the disorder was left to take its natural course, patients on average had a total of 3 QALYs per patient with no discount rate and 2.30 QALYs discounted. Conclusion A model has been developed that provides an estimate of the value for money of an expensive repair of a congenital heart disease. The model could be used to test the cost-effectiveness of making amendments to the care pathway. PMID:23533645

  16. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan D James

    Full Text Available Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9 years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03. More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002 and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006. Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015 and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026 persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment; the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078. These findings are consistent with the

  17. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that

  18. On the Dividend Strategies with Non-Exponential Discounting

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Qian; Wei, Jiaqin; Wang, Rongming

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study the dividend strategies for a shareholder with non-constant discount rate in a diffusion risk model. We assume that the dividends can only be paid at a bounded rate and restrict ourselves to the Markov strategies. This is a time inconsistent control problem. The extended HJB equation is given and the verification theorem is proved for a general discount function. Considering the pseudo-exponential discount functions (Type I and Type II), we get the equilibrium dividend...

  19. Testable Implications of Quasi-Hyperbolic and Exponential Time Discounting

    OpenAIRE

    Echenique, Federico; Imai, Taisuke; Saito, Kota

    2014-01-01

    We present the first revealed-preference characterizations of the models of exponential time discounting, quasi-hyperbolic time discounting, and other time-separable models of consumers’ intertemporal decisions. The characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests, which we take to data using the results of a recent experiment conducted by Andreoni and Sprenger (2012). For such data, we find that less than half the subjects are consistent with exponential discounting, and on...

  20. The effects of the framing of time on delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHart, William Brady; Odum, Amy L

    2015-01-01

    We examined the effects of the framing of time on delay discounting. Delay discounting is the process by which delayed outcomes are devalued as a function of time. Time in a titrating delay discounting task is often framed in calendar units (e.g., as 1 week, 1 month, etc.). When time is framed as a specific date, delayed outcomes are discounted less compared to the calendar format. Other forms of framing time; however, have not been explored. All participants completed a titrating calendar unit delay-discounting task for money. Participants were also assigned to one of two delay discounting tasks: time as dates (e.g., June 1st, 2015) or time in units of days (e.g., 5000 days), using the same delay distribution as the calendar delay-discounting task. Time framed as dates resulted in less discounting compared to the calendar method, whereas time framed as days resulted in greater discounting compared to the calendar method. The hyperboloid model fit best compared to the hyperbola and exponential models. How time is framed may alter how participants attend to the delays as well as how the delayed outcome is valued. Altering how time is framed may serve to improve adherence to goals with delayed outcomes. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  1. Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R

    1996-06-01

    To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision.

  2. Mixed integer linear programming model for dynamic supplier selection problem considering discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adi Wicaksono Purnawan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection is one of the most important elements in supply chain management. This function involves evaluation of many factors such as, material costs, transportation costs, quality, delays, supplier capacity, storage capacity and others. Each of these factors varies with time, therefore, supplier identified for one period is not necessarily be same for the next period to supply the same product. So, mixed integer linear programming (MILP was developed to overcome the dynamic supplier selection problem (DSSP. In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming model is built to solve the lot-sizing problem with multiple suppliers, multiple periods, multiple products and quantity discounts. The buyer has to make a decision for some products which will be supplied by some suppliers for some periods cosidering by discount. To validate the MILP model with randomly generated data. The model is solved by Lingo 16.

  3. Model Persediaan Multi Item dengan Mempertimbangkan Faktor Kedaluwarsa dan Faktor All Unit Discount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Limansyah

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with determination of ordering policy for perishable goods, namely joint order policy or individual order policy. Expiration date is an important factor to be considered in the inventory system, especially in chemical or food industry. The problem becomes more complicated when the company has more goods with different expired dates. Another factor that has an influence to the inventory system is the supplier discount factor. A company can get benefit from this factor in order to reduce a total cost of inventory. In this paper, performance’s criteria used for the selected policy is ordering policy that minimize the total cost of inventory by considering the expiration date and all unit discount.

  4. Cost curves for implantation of small scale hydroelectric power plant project in function of the average annual energy production; Curvas de custo de implantacao de pequenos projetos hidreletricos em funcao da producao media anual de energia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veja, Fausto Alfredo Canales; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes; Beluco, Alexandre

    2008-10-15

    Because of its maturity, small hydropower generation is one of the main energy sources to be considered for electrification of areas far from the national grid. Once a site with hydropower potential is identified, technical and economical studies to assess its feasibility shall be done. Cost curves are helpful tools in the appraisal of the economical feasibility of this type of projects. This paper presents a method to determine initial cost curves as a function of the average energy production of the hydropower plant, by using a set of parametric cost curves and the flow duration curve at the analyzed location. The method is illustrated using information related to 18 pre-feasibility studies made in 2002, at the Central-Atlantic rural region of Nicaragua. (author)

  5. The Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination on Discounted Net Tax Revenue in Egypt: A Government Perspective Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mark P. Connolly; Oleksandr Topachevskyi; Baudouin Standaert; Omayra Ortega; Maarten Postma

    2012-01-01

    Background:Background: We evaluated national rotavirus (RV) immunization programme costs to estimate how resulting changes in morbidity and mortality will influence government fiscal accounts over time. The assumption was that increased childhood survival in vaccinated cohorts leads to increased numbers of children consuming government resource, and an increased number of future tax payers. Abstract: Objective:Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the difference in lifetime discounted net ...

  6. 77 FR 54482 - Allocation of Costs Under the Simplified Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-05

    ... cost of goods sold cash or trade discounts that taxpayers do not capitalize for book purposes (and... to adjust additional section 263A costs for cash or trade discounts described in Sec. 1.471-3(b... Allocation of Costs Under the Simplified Methods AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Treasury. ACTION...

  7. Positive autobiographical memory retrieval reduces temporal discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Speer, Megan E; Delgado, Mauricio R

    2017-01-01

    Abstract People generally prefer rewards sooner rather than later. This phenomenon, temporal discounting, underlies many societal problems, including addiction and obesity. One way to reduce temporal discounting is to imagine positive future experiences. Since there is overlap in the neural circuitry associated with imagining future experiences and remembering past events, here we investigate whether recalling positive memories can also promote more patient choice. We found that participants were more patient after retrieving positive autobiographical memories, but not when they recalled negative memories. Moreover, individuals were more impulsive after imagining novel positive scenes that were not related to their memories, showing that positive imagery alone does not drive this effect. Activity in the striatum and temporo parietal junction during memory retrieval predicted more patient choice, suggesting that to the extent that memory recall is rewarding and involves perspective-taking, it influences decision-making. Furthermore, representational similarity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex between memory recall and decision phases correlated with the behavioral effect across participants. Thus, we have identified a novel manipulation for reducing temporal discounting—remembering the positive past—and have begun to characterize the psychological and neural mechanisms behind it. PMID:28655195

  8. Internet Addiction and Delay Discounting in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saville, Bryan K.; Gisbert, Amanda; Kopp, Jason; Telesco, Carolyn

    2010-01-01

    To examine the relation between Internet addiction and delay discounting, we gave 276 college students a survey designed to measure Internet addiction and a paper-based delay-discounting task. In our larger sample, we identified 14 students who met the criteria for Internet addiction; we also identified 14 matched controls who were similar to the…

  9. Brain Structure Linking Delay Discounting and Academic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Song; Kong, Feng; Zhou, Ming; Chen, Taolin; Yang, Xun; Chen, Guangxiang; Gong, Qiyong

    2017-08-01

    As a component of self-discipline, delay discounting refers to the ability to wait longer for preferred rewards and plays a pivotal role in shaping students' academic performance. However, the neural basis of the association between delay discounting and academic performance remains largely unknown. Here, we examined the neuroanatomical substrates underlying delay discounting and academic performance in 214 adolescents via voxel-based morphometry (VBM) by performing structural magnetic resonance imaging (S-MRI). Behaviorally, we confirmed the significant correlation between delay discounting and academic performance. Neurally, whole-brain regression analyses indicated that regional gray matter volume (rGMV) of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) was associated with both delay discounting and academic performance. Furthermore, delay discounting partly accounted for the association between academic performance and brain structure. Differences in the rGMV of the left DLPFC related to academic performance explained over one-third of the impact of delay discounting on academic performance. Overall, these results provide the first evidence for the common neural basis linking delay discounting and academic performance. Hum Brain Mapp 38:3917-3926, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

    2016-01-01

    This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

  11. ChargeOut! : determining machine and capital equipment charge-out rates using discounted cash-flow analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.M. (Ted) Bilek

    2007-01-01

    The model ChargeOut! was developed to determine charge-out rates or rates of return for machines and capital equipment. This paper introduces a costing methodology and applies it to a piece of capital equipment. Although designed for the forest industry, the methodology is readily transferable to other sectors. Based on discounted cash-flow analysis, ChargeOut!...

  12. Associations between Antisocial Personality Disorder and Sex on Discounting Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Leonardo F; Riven, Levi; Petry, Nancy M

    2014-12-01

    Numerous studies show that individuals with substance use and gambling problems discount delayed and probabilistic outcomes at different rates than controls. Few studies, however, investigated the association of discounting with antisocial personality disorders (ASPD), and none evaluated whether sex impacts these relationships. Because females with ASPD exhibit different patterns of antisocial behavior than their male counterparts, they may also differ in their decision-making tendencies. This study examined the effects of ASPD and sex on discounting in pathological gamblers. Results revealed effects of ASPD, and an interaction between ASPD and sex, on probability discounting rates. None of these variables, however, were related to delay discounting. Females with ASPD highly preferred probabilistic outcomes, suggesting that female gamblers with ASPD are particularly impulsive when it comes to probabilistic rewards. Greater understanding of sex differences in ASPD might help guide the selection of more effective sex-specific prevention and treatment programs.

  13. The Contrast Effect in Temporal and Probabilistic Discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng; He, Guibing

    2016-01-01

    In this information age, messages related to time, and uncertainty surround us. At the same time, our daily lives are filled with decisions accompanied by temporal delay or uncertainty. Will such information influence our temporal and probabilistic discounting? The authors address this question from the perspectives of decision by sampling (DbS) theory and psychological distance theory. Studies 1 and 2 investigated the effect of contextual messages on temporal discounting and probabilistic discounting, respectively. The results indicated that participants who memorized messages about long-term and low-probability events rated delay or uncertainty as mentally closer and exhibited a less degree of value discounting than those who memorized messages regarding short-term and high-probability events. In addition, a sense of distance from present or reality mediated the effect of contextual messages on value discounting. The implications of the current findings for theory and applications are discussed. PMID:27014122

  14. Delay and probability discounting among payday and title loan recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Colin T; Lawyer, Steven R

    2016-04-01

    Payday and title loans are short-term loans associated with significant economic impact. Behavioral theories of impulsive choice may provide insight into behavioral processes that underlie the propensity to take out payday and title loans. Adults between the ages of 18 and 30 recruited from the community completed delay and probability discounting tasks for hypothetical money as well as measures of substance use. Patterns of discounting were characterized using a hyperbolic decay model and area under the curve. Participants who took out a payday and/or title loan in the past (n=41) exhibited more impulsive choice patterns on the delay discounting task than did those who did not (n=255). Substance use mediated this relationship between payday and title loan retention and delay discounting. These findings suggest potentially important relationships between payday/title loan borrowing, substance use, and delay discounting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. WORK COMPETENCES AT WESTERN BANK DISCOUNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haidee Coste

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The research aimed to identify the generic work competences in the staff of the Vice Presidency of Compensation and Development of the Western Bank Discount. Authors were consulted such as Alles (2008, Tobon (2006 and Hay Group (2004, among others. The research is descriptive, non-experimental, transactional and field design. The population consisted of twelve (12 subjects belonging to the vice presidency. It was applied a questionnaire of thirty (30 items, validated by the trial of three (3 experts, with 0.92 reliability by Cronbach alpha coefficient.  It is concluded the employees of the vice presidency have a high level of the generic work competences customer focus, teamwork, effective communication, innovation, emotional intelligence and making decisions. It is strength for the institution, because staff with those competences contributes doing the best for the development of the institution.

  16. Valuing companies by cash flow discounting: Ten methods and nine theories

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández , Pablo

    2002-01-01

    This paper is a summarized compendium of all the methods and theories on company valuation using cash flow discounting. The paper shows the ten most commonly used methods for valuing companies by cash flow discounting: 1) free cash flow discounted at the WACC; 2) equity cash flows discounted at the required return to equity; 3) capital cash flows discounted at the WACC before tax; 4) APV (Adjusted Present Value); 5) the business's risk-adjusted free cash flows discounted at the required retur...

  17. Equivalence of the different discounted cash flow valuation methods. Different alternatives for determining the discounted value of tax shields and their implications for the valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández, Pablo

    1999-01-01

    This paper addresses the valuation of firms by cash flow discounting. The first part shows that the four most commonly used discounted cash flow valuation methods (free cash flow discounted at the WACC; cash flow available for equity holders discounted at the required return on the equity flows; capital cash flow discounted at the WACC before taxes; and Adjusted Present Value) always give the same value. This result is logical because all the methods analyse the same reality under the same hy...

  18. Discount factor in planning decision of electric sector. A taxa de desconto nas decisoes de planejamento do setor eletrico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, J L [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Maurer, L T.A. [Booz, Allen and Hamilton Inc. (United States)

    1990-01-01

    Researchers and technicians have been giving a lot of attention to the issue of discount factor in planning in the electric sector. In this paper we review the most important points under consideration, attempting to broaden the discussion and stimulate the creativity of the technicians involved with the sector. There appears to be an emerging consensus that the discount factor to be used must consider the capital costs associated with the main financial sources utilized. The traditional factor of 10% per year must be re-evaluated and augmented, in order to best reflect long range economical and financial conditions. The paper emphasizes the importance of the discount factor to several decisions made within the sector, including energy conservation. Because of the relevance of the topic to Brazil future, we strongly suggest the utilization of sensitivity analysis techniques. (author).

  19. Joint Economic Lot Sizing Optimization in a Supplier-Buyer Inventory System When the Supplier Offers Decremental Temporary Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Puspita Sari

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This research discusses mathematical models of joint economic lot size optimization in a supplier-buyer inventory system in a situation when the supplier offers decremental temporary discounts during a sale period. Here, the sale period consists of n phases and the phases of discounts offered descend as much as the number of phases. The highest discount will be given when orders are placed in the first phase while the lowest one will be given when they are placed in the last phase. In this situation, the supplier attempts to attract the buyer to place orders as early as possible during the sale period. The buyers will respon these offers by ordering a special quantity in one of the phase. In this paper, we propose such a forward buying model with discount-proportionally-distributed time phases. To examine the behaviour of the proposed model, we conducted numerical experiments. We assumed that there are three phases of discounts during the sale period. We then compared the total joint costs of special order placed in each phase for two scenarios. The first scenario is the case of independent situation – there is no coordination between the buyer and the supplie-, while the second scenario is the opposite one, the coordinated model. Our results showed the coordinated model outperform the independent model in terms of producing total joint costs. We finally conducted a sensitivity analyzis to examine the other behaviour of the proposed model. Keywords: supplier-buyer inventory system, forward buying model, decremental temporary discounts, joint economic lot sizing, optimization.

  20. Conditions for the Solvability of the Linear Programming Formulation for Constrained Discounted Markov Decision Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufour, F., E-mail: dufour@math.u-bordeaux1.fr [Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux, INRIA Bordeaux Sud Ouest, Team: CQFD, and IMB (France); Prieto-Rumeau, T., E-mail: tprieto@ccia.uned.es [UNED, Department of Statistics and Operations Research (Spain)

    2016-08-15

    We consider a discrete-time constrained discounted Markov decision process (MDP) with Borel state and action spaces, compact action sets, and lower semi-continuous cost functions. We introduce a set of hypotheses related to a positive weight function which allow us to consider cost functions that might not be bounded below by a constant, and which imply the solvability of the linear programming formulation of the constrained MDP. In particular, we establish the existence of a constrained optimal stationary policy. Our results are illustrated with an application to a fishery management problem.

  1. Incomplete information and the closed-end fund discount

    OpenAIRE

    Barone-Adesi, Giovanni; Kim, Youngsoo

    2008-01-01

    We model the closed-end fund discount/premium in a version of Merton’s (1978) asset pricing model with incomplete information. In this economy, investors trade only assets which they “ know about” . The model generates a closed-end fund discount or premium, depending on risk-aversion parameters. The fund share price reverts to the net asset value on open-ending of the fund. The discount/premium is a result of two economic forces: (1) the fund manager’s objective is to maximize expected utilit...

  2. Where do we stand on discounts? - A Danish perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergqvist, Christian

    The dominant undertaking’s ability to award discounts and other loyalty inducing considerations are subject to much ambiguity and many unsettled issues. Despite discounts being a commercial requirement, even for the dominant undertaking, it’s difficult to draw up clear principles, and while...... the approach to non-dominant undertaking’s restriction of competition has been fundamentally recast over the last 20 years, the appraisal of single company behaviour remains more formal and rigid. However, there have recently been indications that some of the same leniency might have been extended to discounts...

  3. Where Do We Stand on Discounts? - A Nordic Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastida, Vladimir; Ballebye Okholm, Henrik; Pedersen, Torben

    Dominant undertakings’ ability, under competition law, to award discounts and other loyalty inducing considerations are subject to much ambiguity and unsettled issues. Despite discounts being a commercial requirement, even for the dominant undertaking, it is difficult to draw up clear principles....... to dis-counts and unilateral behaviour and in particular the 2017 Court of Justice rul-ing in Intel has reopened the discussions. The objective of this book is to pro-vide guidance on the matter under EU and Nordic competition law and to align these with economic theory....

  4. Cost-Effectiveness of Ibrutinib Compared With Obinutuzumab With Chlorambucil in Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients With Comorbidities in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Richa; Redekop, William Ken

    2018-02-01

    Ibrutinib shows superiority over obinutuzumab with chlorambucil (G-Clb) in untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia with comorbidities who cannot tolerate fludarabine-based therapy. However, ibrutinib is relatively more expensive than G-Clb. In this study we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ibrutinib compared with G-Clb from the United Kingdom (UK) health care perspective. A 3-state semi-Markov model was parameterized to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits associated with ibrutinib compared with G-Clb as first-line treatment. Idelalisib with rituximab was considered as second-line treatment. Unit costs were derived from standard sources, (dis)utilities from UK elicitation studies, progression-free survival, progression, and death from clinical trials, and postprogression survival and background mortality from published sources. Additional analyses included threshold analyses with ibrutinib and idelalisib at various discount rates, and scenario analysis with ibrutinib as second-line treatment after G-Clb. An average gain of 1.49 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was estimated for ibrutinib compared with G-Clb at an average additional cost of £112,835 per patient. To be cost-effective as per the UK thresholds, ibrutinib needs to be discounted at 30%, 40%, and 50% if idelalisib is discounted at 0%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £75,648 and £-143,279 per QALY gained for the base-case and scenario analyses, respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results. As per base-case analyses, an adequate discount on ibrutinib is required to make it cost-effective as per the UK thresholds. The scenario analysis substantiates ibrutinib's cost-savings for the UK National Health Services and advocates patient's access to ibrutinib in the UK. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Intergenerational Justice: How Reasonable Man Discounts Climate Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc D. Davidson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Moral philosophers and economists have evaluated the intergenerational problem of climate change by applying the whole gamut of theories on distributive justice. In this article, however, it is argued that intergenerational justice cannot imply the application of moral ideal theories to future generations. The formal principle of equality simply requires us to treat like cases as like. If intergenerational justice is to have any meaning, it would require future generations to receive the same treatment under the law and the same treatment from the authorities, as far as cases are like. In the context of climate change, the reasonable man standard from tort law is of particular relevance. There is no justification to handle pollution across generational boundaries according to norms which differ from the (international laws for handling pollution across national borders. It is argued that this implies, for example, that a zero social rate of time preference should be used in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy: climate damage experienced by future generations should be discounted neither for their higher expected wealth, nor purely for their being remote.

  6. Future so bright? Delay discounting and consideration of future consequences predict academic performance among college drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

    2017-10-01

    College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. A Social Discount Rate for Climate Damage to Future Generations Based on Regulatory Law

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davidson, M.D. [Department of Philosophy, Faculty of Humanities, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Doelenstraat 15, 1012 CP Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-05-15

    This article examines the implications for the social discount rate for damage due to climate change if risk to future generations is handled in accordance with the laws regulating our handling of risk to contemporaries. The conclusions are the following. Under current law, neither geographic distance nor differences in wealth between risk creator and risk bearer play any part in establishing a standard of 'reasonable care'. The concept of intergenerational justice requires these same principles to be applied in the intergenerational context too, implying a zero consumption rate of interest for climate damage. Assuming that the extent to which mitigation is at the expense of alternative investments is equal to society's marginal propensity to save, the social discount rate becomes society's marginal propensity to save times the long-term market rate of return on private investment, implying a social discount rate of around one per cent or a fraction of one per cent. This formula is exact under the assumption of average saving behaviour and by attributing consumption losses due to investment in damage prevention before damage occurs to the risk creator and after damage occurs to the risk bearer.

  8. A social discounting model based on Tsallis’ statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2010-09-01

    Social decision making (e.g. social discounting and social preferences) has been attracting attention in economics, econophysics, social physics, behavioral psychology, and neuroeconomics. This paper proposes a novel social discounting model based on the deformed algebra developed in the Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics. Furthermore, it is suggested that this model can be utilized to quantify the degree of consistency in social discounting in humans and analyze the relationships between behavioral tendencies in social discounting and other-regarding economic decision making under game-theoretic conditions. Future directions in the application of the model to studies in econophysics, neuroeconomics, and social physics, as well as real-world problems such as the supply of live organ donations, are discussed.

  9. Review of assessment methods discount rate in investment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamaletdinova Guzel Hamidullovna

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the current methods of calculating discount rate in investment analysis and business valuation, as well as analyzes the key problems using various techniques in terms of the Russian economy.

  10. Welcome to professional courtesy discounts: the medical community's pandora's box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, A D

    1998-01-01

    Recent government regulations on fraud and abuse have transformed the tradition of professional courtesy discounts into a legal minefield threatening to explode on the uninformed medical provider. This paper offers an understanding of the issues involved and provider options.

  11. Online Discount Luxury: In Search of Guilty Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Nikolai Ostapenko

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Discount luxury sites mainly serve as online platform for the “flash sales” method, offering limited-time availability of high fashion, travel, home décor, and culinary bargains to its members. The idea of moving “sample sales” online was first realized on a European website, Vente-Privee.com, which now has more than 13 million customers. Following Gilt’s introduction in the United States, flash sales skyrocketed and led to the launching of many new sites, which have proved popular both with consumers seeking impressive discounts on luxury goods, and with exclusive brands wanting to unload their unsold stock quickly. Recently we found that many of the sites are going through the customer fatigue stage, and their further success requires more than just deep discounts. The article reviews possible new business strategies and models within discount luxury retail segment mainly based upon experience of the Gilt Groupe.

  12. Discounting of quantity surveying fees in South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    by clients have forced Quantity Surveying firms into competition with ... Furthermore, 43% of consulting engineering firms were discounting their fees at a rate of .... Quantity. Surveying services are also offered in the fields of dispute resolution,.

  13. Heaven can wait. How religion modulates temporal discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paglieri, Fabio; Borghi, Anna M; Colzato, Lorenza S; Hommel, Bernhard; Scorolli, Claudia

    2013-11-01

    Evidence suggests that religious systems have specific effects on attentional and action control processes. The present study investigated whether religions also modulate choices that involve higher-order knowledge and the delay of gratification in particular. We tested Dutch Calvinists, Italian Catholics, and Atheists from both countries/cultures using an intertemporal choice task where participants could choose between a small immediate and a larger delayed monetary reward. Based on the Calvinist theory of predestination and the Catholic concept of a cycle of sin-confession-expiation, we predicted a reduced delay tolerance, i.e., higher discount rate, for Italian Catholics than for Dutch Calvinists, and intermediate rates for the two atheist groups. Analyses of discount rates support our hypotheses. We also found a magnitude effect on temporal discounting and faster responses for large than for small rewards across religions and countries/cultures. We conclude that temporal discounting is specifically modulated by religious upbringing rather than by generic cultural differences.

  14. INFLUENCE OF DISCOUNT PRICE ANNOUNCEMENTS ON CONSUMER’S BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliana Isabella

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler´s Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers’ behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts. Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

  15. Delayed discounting of pain with and without monetary reward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kicman Paweł

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effect of monetary rewards on the rate of pain discounting. Our aim, also, was to understand the effect of previous painful dental experiences on the rate of discounting pain. Two groups (N = 148 completed a discounting task. In the first group, delayed pain was weaker than immediate pain, and in the second group delayed pain was stronger than immediate pain. Two conditions were studied: pain was either accompanied by a monetary reward or not. We found that people preferred immediate pain when it was weaker than delayed pain; however, when delayed pain was stronger than immediate pain, there was no clear preference. In both groups the preference for immediate pain was higher when pain was accompanied by a monetary reward. Previous painful experiences were not related to the rate of discounting. It was concluded that the preference for delayed pain depends on the intensity of pain, and it can be modified by rewards that accompany pain.

  16. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Marques-Perez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  17. On the Effects of Central Japan Expressway's Commuter Toll Discount Policy in Nagoya Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YING Jiangqian; Ryosuke Ando

    2007-01-01

    Road pricing policies have two equally important objectives that have to be considered: the optimal use of the road network and the fiscal sustainability for the management of the network. The aim of this work is to examine the effects on these two objectives of a recent pricing policy implemented in Japan's expressway networks. Recently the Nippon (Japan) Expressway Companies (NEXCO, operators of Japan's nation wide expressway network) have implemented several toll discount policies for users equipped with electronic toll collectors (ETCs). One of the policies is the commuter discount policy that discounts 50% for a journey on the NEXCO expressway no longer than 100 km during the commuting peak hours. This paper examines its effect on congestion reduction in the road network of Nagoya area and its influence on the use of expressways operated by another major local public expressway company in Nagoya. The congestion easing effect of this policy is compared with a potential marginal cost pricing scheme. These observations suggest that policy coordination regarding toll levels is needed for expressway corporations and transportation authorities for improving transportation efficiency of utilization of the whole network.

  18. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-09-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  19. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  20. A study of the cost-effective markets for new technology agricultural aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.; Clyne, F.

    1979-01-01

    A previously developed data base was used to estimate the regional and total U.S. cost-effective markets for a new technology agricultural aircraft as incorporating features which could result from NASA-sponsored aerial applications research. The results show that the long-term market penetration of a new technology aircraft would be near 3,000 aircraft. This market penetration would be attained in approximately 20 years. Annual sales would be about 200 aircraft after 5 to 6 years of introduction. The net present value of cost savings benefit which this aircraft would yield (measured on an infinite horizon basis) would be about $35 million counted at a 10 percent discount rate and $120 million at a 5 percent discount rate. At both discount rates the present value of cost savings exceeds the present value of research and development (R&D) costs estimated for the development of the technology base needed for the proposed aircraft. These results are quite conservative as they have been derived neglecting future growth in the agricultural aviation industry, which has been averaging about 12 percent per year over the past several years.

  1. Marketing cigarettes when all else is unavailable: evidence of discounting in price-sensitive neighbourhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Suzan; Williams, Kelly; Fry, Rae; Chapman, Kathy; Soulos, Greg; Tang, Anita; Walsberger, Scott; Egger, Sam

    2014-05-01

    Since price is both a key determinant of smoking and one of the few remaining marketing strategies available in countries without point-of-sale tobacco display, this study examines cigarette price variations in the Australian market and assesses whether those variations are consistent with price being used to increase or maintain smoking among price-sensitive groups. An audit of 1739 tobacco retailers was used to collect variations in the price of the best-selling Australian cigarette brand, as well as record retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. We examined variation in pricing across outlet type, demographic variations (socioeconomic level, % in the area under 18 and % born in Australia), remoteness and retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. Multipacks were offered by 27.8% of retailers, with the average pack price in a twin pack $1.32 (or 7.3%) cheaper than a single pack. Prices were significantly lower in some outlet types, in lower socioeconomic postcodes and in those with a higher percentage of people under 18. In contrast with other consumer goods, prices were lower (although not significantly so) outside major cities. The provision of substantial multi-pack discounts and lower prices in postcodes with a higher proportion of price-sensitive smokers (young people and those from lower socioeconomic groups) is consistent with targeted discounts being used as a tobacco marketing strategy. The results support policy interventions to counter selective discounts and to require disclosure of trade-based discounts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Neutron resonance averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.

    1986-10-01

    The principles of resonance averaging as applied to neutron capture reactions are described. Several illustrations of resonance averaging to problems of nuclear structure and the distribution of radiative strength in nuclei are provided. 30 refs., 12 figs

  3. A Rational Model of the Closed-End Fund Discount

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Berk; Richard Stanton

    2004-01-01

    The discount on closed-end funds is widely accepted as proof of investor irrationality. We show,however, that a parsimonious rational model can generate a discount that exhibits many of the characteristics observed in practice. The only required features of the model are that managers have (imperfectly observable) ability to generate excess returns; they sign long-term contracts guaranteeing them a fee each year equal to a fixed fraction of assets under management; and they can leave to earn ...

  4. Discount Rate and Timber Rotation: the Case of Eucalyptus Saligna

    OpenAIRE

    Camilo Restrepo; Mauricio Alviar

    2010-01-01

    Eucalyptus is one of the most important economical and environmental species in Colombia. The main goal of this article is to study the relationship between the discount rate and the year of Eucalyptus Saligna optimal harvest, through the Fisher and Hotelling’s method. The methodology consists of calculating the maximum Net Present Value and performing a sensitivity analysis between the year of harvest and the discount rate. The area of study is located in the eastern region of the state of A...

  5. The neural basis of cultural differences in delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Bokyung; Sung, Young Shin; McClure, Samuel M

    2012-03-05

    People generally prefer to receive rewarding outcomes sooner rather than later. Such preferences result from delay discounting, or the process by which outcomes are devalued for the expected delay until their receipt. We investigated cultural differences in delay discounting by contrasting behaviour and brain activity in separate cohorts of Western (American) and Eastern (Korean) subjects. Consistent with previous reports, we find a dramatic difference in discounting behaviour, with Americans displaying much greater present bias and elevated discount rates. Recent neuroimaging findings suggest that differences in discounting may arise from differential involvement of either brain reward areas or regions in the prefrontal and parietal cortices associated with cognitive control. We find that the ventral striatum is more greatly recruited in Americans relative to Koreans when discounting future rewards, but there is no difference in prefrontal or parietal activity. This suggests that a cultural difference in emotional responsivity underlies the observed behavioural effect. We discuss the implications of this research for strategic interrelations between Easterners and Westerners.

  6. Weighted Average Cost of Retail Gas (WACORG) highlights pricing effects in the US gas value chain: Do we need wellhead price-floor regulation to bail out the unconventional gas industry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weijermars, Ruud

    2011-01-01

    The total annual revenue stream in the US natural gas value chain over the past decade is analyzed. Growth of total revenues has been driven by higher wellhead prices, which peaked in 2008. The emergence of the unconventional gas business was made possible in part by the pre-recessional rise in global energy prices. The general rise in natural gas prices between 1998 and 2008 did not lower overall US gas consumption, but shifts have occurred during the past decade in the consumption levels of individual consumer groups. Industry's gas consumption has decreased, while power stations increased their gas consumption. Commercial and residential consumers maintained flat gas consumption patterns. This study introduces the Weighted Average Cost of Retail Gas (WACORG) as a tool to calculate and monitor an average retail price based on the different natural gas prices charged to the traditional consumer groups. The WACORG also provides insight in wellhead revenues and may be used as an instrument for calibrating retail prices in support of wellhead price-floor regulation. Such price-floor regulation is advocated here as a possible mitigation measure against excessive volatility in US wellhead gas prices to improve the security of gas supply. - Highlights: → This study introduces an average retail price, WACORG. → WACORG can monitor price differentials for the traditional US gas consumer groups. → WACORG also provides insight in US wellhead revenues. → WACORG can calibrate retail prices in support of wellhead price-floor regulation. → Gas price-floor can improve security of gas supply by reducing price volatility.

  7. The economic costs and benefits of dog guides for the blind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, Kathleen E; Rein, David B

    2008-01-01

    To document the economic costs and benefits associated with providing dog guide services for blind individuals able to benefit from them. This study estimates the annual cost of dog guide services accounting for cost offsets associated with reduced informal and formal care costs over the working life of the animal (8 years). We estimated the cost per dog guide trained using previously unpublished survey data from dog guide training schools in the United States. We also estimated the incremental economic benefits as the reduction in costs associated with formal and informal care using published studies and a set of reasonable assumptions. Costs were discounted to 2006$ using a 3% discount rate. We found the average total cost per dog guide over its working life was $40,598, of which $21,568 were off-set by reductions in other costs. The costs associated with dog guides included $35,536 in dog acquisition costs and $5,061 for annual maintenance over the animal's working life. The economic benefits included $16,324 and $5,244 in reduced formal and informal care costs, respectively. The average net cost of dog guide ownership per year over the working life of the animal was $2,379. Using available information and reasonable assumptions, this study documents the costs of dog guides accounting for a limited number of cost off-setting elements. However, given limited available evidence, further study of the impact of guide dogs on the lives of blind individuals who use them should be conducted to validate this study's results.

  8. The Vivid Present: Visualization Abilities Are Associated with Steep Discounting of Future Rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathi, Trishala; McConnell, Mairead H; Luery, Jeffrey; Kable, Joseph W

    2017-01-01

    Humans and other animals discount the value of future rewards, a phenomenon known as delay discounting. Individuals vary widely in the extent to which they discount future rewards, and these tendencies have been associated with important life outcomes. Recent studies have demonstrated that imagining the future reduces subsequent discounting behavior, but no research to date has examined whether a similar principle applies at the trait level, and whether training visualization changes discounting. The current study examined if individual differences in visualization abilities are linked to individual differences in discounting and whether practicing visualization can change discounting behaviors in a lasting way. Participants ( n = 48) completed the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire (VVIQ) and delay discounting task and then underwent a 4-week intervention consisting of visualization training (intervention) or relaxation training (control). Contrary to our hypotheses, participants who reported greater visualization abilities (lower scores) on the VVIQ were higher discounters. To further examine this relationship, an additional 106 participants completed the VVIQ and delay discounting task. In the total sample ( n = 154), there was a significant negative correlation between VVIQ scores and discount rates, showing that individuals who are better visualizers are also higher discounters. Consistent with this relationship but again to our surprise, visualization training tended, albeit weakly, to increase discount rates, and those whose VVIQ decreased the most were those whose discount rates increased the most. These results suggest a novel association between visualization abilities and delay discounting.

  9. Combining Environmental and Spatial Discount Rates for Valuation of Assets According to International Financial Reporting Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaunzeme Justine Sophia

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Application of discount rate in finance and accounting is founded on the concept of time value of money. Discounted cash flow model is widely used for asset valuation under the International Financial Reporting Standards (in abbreviation, IFRS. The discount rate applied in valuation models normally is the best rate of return that investors would earn alternative investments. With emergence of ecological economics as a separate branch of economics, the concept of ecological (or in other words, environmental discount rate has been elaborated. Muller (2013 in his paper ‘The Discounting Confusion: an Ecological Economics Perspective’, argues that traditional discounting can undermine long-term sustainability of the economy. In his work, Frank G. Muller considered adjusting the traditional discount rate in order to arrive at an environmental discount rate, which would help to ensure the sustainability of the economy. Hannon (2001 and Perrings (2001 in their paper ‘An Introduction to Spatial Discounting’ consider another variation of the discount rate - spatial discount rate. Spatial discount rate represents the rate at which the diffusion of environmental effects of economic activities is discounted over space. By February 2016, neither the application of environmental nor spatial discount rates under IFRS has been considered. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications that environmental and spatial discounting would have for the application of discounted cash flow model according to IFRS. The research methods applied are methods of economic analysis and synthesis.

  10. Which cost of debt should be used in forecasting cash flows?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Vélez–Pareja

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Frequently, analysts and teachers use the capitalized rate of interest for the cost of debt when forecasting and discounting cash flows. Others estimate the interest payments when forecasting annual financial statements or cash flows based on the average of debt calculated with the beginning and ending balance. Others use the end of year convention that calculates the yearly interest multiplying the beginning balance times its contractual cost. The use of one or other methods is critical for the definition of the tax savings. These approaches are illustrated with examples and the differences in using them. A simple proposal to solve the problem is presented.

  11. Selection of a discount rate for use in NRC regulatory analyses and application of discount rates to future averted health effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paananen, O.H.; Hendrickson, P.L.

    1993-01-01

    The principal objective of this report is to provide background information and recommendations on the use of discount rates in the regulatory analysis process. The report focuses on two issues selecting the appropriate discount rate or rates to use when conducting a regulatory analysis, and applying the selected discount rate to future health-related benefits estimated to result from alternative regulatory actions

  12. Tracking the Discount: Tuition Discount Rates, Net Tuition Revenue, and Efforts to Inform Institutional Practices. Professional File. Article 133, Fall 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Natalie Pullaro; Redd, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    This article uses findings from the 2012 Tuition Discounting Study (TDS) conducted by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) to provide a framework for institutional researchers to develop and adapt their own custom tuition discounting definitions and formulas. Under tuition discounting, colleges and…

  13. Procurement-distribution model for perishable items with quantity discounts incorporating freight policies under fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makkar Sandhya

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A significant issue of the supply chain problem is how to integrate different entities. Managing supply chain is a difficult task because of complex integrations, especially when the products are perishable in nature. Little attention has been paid on ordering specific perishable products jointly in uncertain environment with multiple sources and multiple destinations. In this article, we propose a supply chain coordination model through quantity and freight discount policy for perishable products under uncertain cost and demand information. A case is provided to validate the procedure.

  14. Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

    2016-01-01

    The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.

  15. Cost-effectiveness of kidney transplantation compared with chronic dialysis in end-stage renal disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Rosselli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To estimate the costs and effectiveness measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALY of kidney transplantation compared with dialysis in adults suffering from end-stage renal disease from the perspective of the Colombian healthcare system, we designed a Markov model with monthly cycles over a five-year time horizon and eight transitional states, including death as an absorbing state. Transition probabilities were obtained from international registries, costs from different local sources [case studies, official tariffs (ISS 2001 + 35% for procedures and SISMED for medications]. Data were validated by an expert panel and we performed univariate, multivariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Effectiveness indicators were months of life gained, months of dialysis averted and deaths prevented. The annual discount rate was 3% and the cost-utility threshold (willingness to pay was three times gross domestic product (GDP = USD 20,000 per QALY. The costs were adopted in US dollars (USD using the 2012 average exchange rate (1 USD = COP$ 1798. The discounted average total cost for five years was USD 76,718 for transplantation and USD 76,891 for dialysis, with utilities 2.98 and 2.10 QALY, respectively. Additionally, renal transplantation represented 6.9 months gained, 35 months in dialysis averted per patient and one death averted for each of the five patients transplanted in five years. We conclude that renal transplantation improves the overall survival rates and quality of life and is a cost-saving alternative compared with dialysis.

  16. Results of reference pricing and reimbursement discount rate schemes of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guvenc Kockaya

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: General Directorate of Pharmaceuticals and Pharmacy (IEGM is responsible for setting all prices for human medicinal products. The reference pricing system is used for setting these prices. Reference countries are reviewed annually and may be subject to certain alterations. There were 5 reference countries in 2009: Spain, Italy, Germany, France and Greece. The aim of this study is to show the distribution of reference countries which were used for reference pricing.METHODS: The price list of pharmaceuticals which was published by IEGM on 15.04.2011 was used for analysis. Distribution of reference countries and prices were evaluated.RESULTS: Prices of 6,251 generic and 3,703 original products were set according to the price list. 5,283 of generics and 3,306 of originals were in the positive list for reimbursement. Reference pricing was used for 2,352 generics and 2,281 originals. Prices of the remaining were set outside of reference pricing. 32 different countries were used for reference pricing. Italy was the most popular country for reference pricing. Even if it was not a reference country, Germany was used in some of the pharmaceuticals. The average reimbursement discount rate and price were 24.43% and 249 TL, respectively. There were no colerations between price and reimbursement discount rate, or reference country and reimbursement rate.CONCLUSION: It has been shown that Italy has the highest impact on the pricing of all pharmaceuticals in Turkey. Even if it was not a reference country, Germany showed to affect pharmaceuticals more than other countries which were also not used for reference pricing. Even if reimbursement discount rates are stated by the Social Security Institution (SGK, there are different discount rates for pharmaceuticals. The analysis stated that there were correlation between price, country and discount rates. This analysis is first for the literature. Further analysis is necessary in the light of price

  17. The Discount Rate for Defense Decisionmaking: Some New Considerations,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-11-01

    the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch calculates the pre-tax rate of return in several corporate sectors and takes a weighted average...economists assume 100 percent shifting of the corporate income tax , so if the corporate income tax is 50 percent, then the rate of return in the

  18. Estimating implied rates of discount in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R; McNabb, R; Thompson, A G H; Sheldon, T A; Grimley Evans, J

    2003-01-01

    To consider whether implied rates of discounting from the perspectives of individual and society differ, and whether implied rates of discounting in health differ from those implied in choices involving finance or "goods". The study comprised first a review of economics, health economics and social science literature and then an empirical estimate of implied rates of discounting in four fields: personal financial, personal health, public financial and public health, in representative samples of the public and of healthcare professionals. Samples were drawn in the former county and health authority district of South Glamorgan, Wales. The public sample was a representative random sample of men and women, aged over 18 years and drawn from electoral registers. The health professional sample was drawn at random with the cooperation of professional leads to include doctors, nurses, professions allied to medicine, public health, planners and administrators. The literature review revealed few empirical studies in representative samples of the population, few direct comparisons of public with private decision-making and few direct comparisons of health with financial discounting. Implied rates of discounting varied widely and studies suggested that discount rates are higher the smaller the value of the outcome and the shorter the period considered. The relationship between implied discount rates and personal attributes was mixed, possibly reflecting the limited nature of the samples. Although there were few direct comparisons, some studies found that individuals apply different rates of discount to social compared with private comparisons and health compared with financial. The present study also found a wide range of implied discount rates, with little systematic effect of age, gender, educational level or long-term illness. There was evidence, in both samples, that people chose a lower rate of discount in comparisons made on behalf of society than in comparisons made for

  19. Temporal discounting and heart rate reactivity to stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diller, James W; Patros, Connor H G; Prentice, Paula R

    2011-07-01

    Temporal discounting is the reduction of the value of a reinforcer as a function of increasing delay to its presentation. Impulsive individuals discount delayed consequences more rapidly than self-controlled individuals, and impulsivity has been related to substance abuse, gambling, and other problem behaviors. A growing body of literature has identified biological correlates of impulsivity, though little research to date has examined relations between delay discounting and markers of poor health (e.g., cardiovascular reactivity to stress). We evaluated the relation between one aspect of impulsivity, measured using a computerized temporal discounting task, and heart rate reactivity, measured as a change in heart rate from rest during a serial subtraction task. A linear regression showed that individuals who were more reactive to stress responded more impulsively (i.e., discounted delayed reinforcers more rapidly). When results were stratified by gender, the effect was observed for females, but not for males. This finding supports previous research on gender differences in cardiovascular reactivity and suggests that this type of reactivity may be an important correlate of impulsive behavior. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Maximizing the Spread of Influence via Generalized Degree Discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Zhao, Chengli; Yi, Dongyun

    2016-01-01

    It is a crucial and fundamental issue to identify a small subset of influential spreaders that can control the spreading process in networks. In previous studies, a degree-based heuristic called DegreeDiscount has been shown to effectively identify multiple influential spreaders and has severed as a benchmark method. However, the basic assumption of DegreeDiscount is not adequate, because it treats all the nodes equally without any differences. To consider a general situation in real world networks, a novel heuristic method named GeneralizedDegreeDiscount is proposed in this paper as an effective extension of original method. In our method, the status of a node is defined as a probability of not being influenced by any of its neighbors, and an index generalized discounted degree of one node is presented to measure the expected number of nodes it can influence. Then the spreaders are selected sequentially upon its generalized discounted degree in current network. Empirical experiments are conducted on four real networks, and the results show that the spreaders identified by our approach are more influential than several benchmark methods. Finally, we analyze the relationship between our method and three common degree-based methods.

  1. Description, prescription and the choice of discount rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, Seth D.

    2009-01-01

    The choice of discount rates is a key issue in the analysis of long-term societal issues, in particular environmental issues such as climate change. Approaches to choosing discount rates are generally placed into two categories: the descriptive approach and the prescriptive approach. The descriptive approach is often justified on grounds that it uses a description of how society discounts instead of having analysts impose their own discounting views on society. This paper analyzes the common forms of the descriptive and prescriptive approaches and finds that, in contrast with customary thinking, both forms are equally descriptive and prescriptive. The prescriptions concern who has standing (i.e. who is included) in society, how the views of these individuals are measured, and how the measurements are aggregated. Such prescriptions are necessary to choose from among the many possible descriptions of how society discounts. The descriptions are the measurements made given a choice of measurement technique. Thus, the labels 'descriptive approach' and 'prescriptive approach' are deeply misleading, as analysts cannot avoid imposing their own views on society. (author)

  2. Examining weight concern and delay discounting in adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thamotharan, Sneha; Lange, Krista; Ramos, Ashley; Fields, Sherecce

    2016-04-01

    Pediatric obesity is a growing public health concern that contributes to high rates of negative long-term physical and mental health outcomes. Research focused on identifying risk for pediatric obesity has linked delay discounting, or an inclination for immediate rewards, as well as weight concern to individuals with greater Body Mass Index (BMI). The current study seeks to fill a void in the literature by examining how these two variables interact to promote higher BMI in female adolescents. Adolescent (n=60) females between the ages of 13-19years (mage=17.45, SD=1.74) of age completed the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q) and the Delay Discounting Questionnaire. A mediation model examined whether delay discounting accounted for the relationship between weight concern and BMI. Results indicate that in the current study weight concern was negatively related to delay discounting and delay discounting was negatively related to BMI. The overall model revealed that a partial mediation occurred [b=1.28, t(60)=4.92, pconcerns contribute to greater BMI. Nevertheless, the results indicate that prevention and interventions should identify females with high levels of both weight concern and impulsivity as an increased risk for experiencing pediatric obesity and long-term negative health outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Capitals Cost and the Investments Actualisation Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the author has assumed himself an assignment somehow ostentatious but useful, we believe, naming the one to illustrate by means of figures, the influence of both leverage and economic growth over the cost of capital, cost which will be used in capital budgeting. This synthesis is meant to be a forthcoming approach to a later investigation of the problems raised by the estimation of the cost of capital in the specific conditions of both the financial market in Romania and the quality of the economic-financial information, information available for this estimation. The discount rate for an investment project (kinv with a risk equal to the risk undertaken by the enterprise and financed within the firm’s capital structure itself (having the same leverage is equal to the (weighted average cost of capital in the respective risk class (k. Under these circumstances, it is interesting to find out this opportunity cost of capital invested in a medium-sized enterprise: a with investments in rebuilding the productive capacity, all equity financed; b with investments in rebuilding the productive capacity, financed both by equity and debt; c with new investments, all equity financed; d with new investments, financed both by equity and debt. Under these conditions, we estimate the effect of both the leverage and economic growth over the cost of capital (kec and kc to be able to determine in the end the discount rate of the analyzed investment (kinv: for enterprises with only maintaining investments (g = 0, unlevered (U and levered (L; for enterprises with growing investments (g > 0, unlevered (U and levered (L.

  4. Capitals Cost and the Investments Actualisation Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the author has assumed himself an assignment somehow ostentatious but useful, we believe, naming the one to illustrate by means of figures, the influence of both leverage and economic growth over the cost of capital, cost which will be used in capital budgeting. This synthesis is meant to be a forthcoming approach to a later investigation of the problems raised by the estimation of the cost of capital in the specific conditions of both the financial market in Romania and the quality of the economic-financial information, information available for this estimation. The discount rate for an investment project (kinv with a risk equal to the risk undertaken by the enterprise and financed within the firm’s capital structure itself (having the same leverage is equal to the (weighted average cost of capital in the respective risk class (k. Under these circumstances, it is interesting to find out this opportunity cost of capital invested in a medium-sized enterprise: a with investments in rebuilding the productive capacity, all equity financed; b with investments in rebuilding the productive capacity, financed both by equity and debt; c with new investments, all equity financed; d with new investments, financed both by equity and debt. Under these conditions, we estimate the effect of both the leverage and economic growth over the cost of capital (kec and kc to be able to determine in the end the discount rate of the analyzed investment (kinv: for enterprises with only maintaining investments (g = 0, unlevered (U and levered (L; for enterprises with growing investments (g > 0, unlevered (U and levered (L.

  5. Norplant debate: dollars v. sense. Is Norplant discount in U.S. too little, too late?

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    At a Congressional hearing of the pricing strategy for Norplant, and after several family planning specialists testified that Norplant's cost ($365) makes it inaccessible to many US women, Wyeth-Ayerst announced that, in 2 years, it would provide Norplant to public sector family planning clinics at a discount price. Just 1.4% of clients at Planned Parenthood clinics choose Norplant, because it is too costly. While Title X clinic officials are pleased with this announcement, many family planning providers wonder what the manufacturer's motives are. The president of the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association believes that the announcement is a press ploy. The Wyeth spokesperson said the original licensing agreement with the Population Council allowed a public sector price 5 years after Norplant's introduction in the US market. The 5-year delay was intended to build private sector support and to allow Wyeth to recover its marketing and training expenses. Wyeth also wanted Norplant to become a mainstream contraceptive, so it became concerned about the private sector. Yet, the law requires a 15% rebate for qualified public health clinics now. Few family planners expressed praise for Wyeth, since it revealed no details on the public sector price. Further, health care reform may alter drug pricing before the 2-year period. In early 1994, Wyeth's exclusive patent on Norplant and on levonorgestrel expires, allowing other companies to enter the implant market. Yet, other companies need at least 1 year to negotiate with the US Food and Drug Administration for approval, thereby allowing Wyeth a window to dominate the market. Thus, by the time the 2 years is up, the discount will have no meaning. Family planners have criticized Wyeth for not offering a public sector discount for a long time, especially since public funds contributed to Norplant's development. Wyeth's only contribution was levonorgestrel. It allowed the Population Council to use

  6. Trends in the Use of Premium and Discount Cigarette Brands: Findings from the ITC US Surveys (2002–2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelius, Monica E.; Driezen, Pete; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Hyland, Andrew; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Carpenter, Matthew J.; Cummings, K. Michael

    2014-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this paper was to examine trends in the use of premium and discount cigarette brands and determine correlates of type of brand used and brand switching. Methods Data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) US adult smoker cohort survey were analyzed. The total study sample included 6669 adult cigarette smokers recruited and followed from 2002 to 2011 over eight different survey waves. Each survey wave included an average of 1700 smokers per survey with replenishment of those lost to follow-up. Results Over the eight survey waves, a total of 260 different cigarette brands were reported by smokers, of which 17% were classified as premium and 83% as discount brands. Marlboro, Newport, and Camel were the most popular premium brands reported by smokers in our sample over all eight survey waves. The percentage of smokers using discount brands increased between 2002 and 2011, with a marked increase in brand switching from premium to discount cigarettes observed after 2009 corresponding to the $0.61 increase in the federal excise tax on cigarettes. Cigarette brand preferences varied by age group and income levels with younger, higher income smokers more likely to report smoking premium brand cigarettes, while older, middle and lower income, heavier smokers were more likely to report using discount brands. Conclusions Our data suggest that demographic and smoking trends favor the continued growth of low priced cigarette brands. From a tobacco control perspective, the findings from this study suggest that governments should consider enacting stronger minimum pricing laws in order to keep the base price of cigarettes high, since aggressive price marketing will likely continue to be used by manufacturers to compete for the shrinking pool of remaining smokers in the population. PMID:24092600

  7. Trends in the use of premium and discount cigarette brands: findings from the ITC US Surveys (2002-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelius, Monica E; Driezen, Pete; Fong, Geoffrey T; Chaloupka, Frank J; Hyland, Andrew; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Carpenter, Matthew J; Cummings, K Michael

    2014-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to examine trends in the use of premium and discount cigarette brands and determine correlates of type of brand used and brand switching. Data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) US adult smoker cohort survey were analysed. The total study sample included 6669 adult cigarette smokers recruited and followed from 2002 to 2011 over eight different survey waves. Each survey wave included an average of 1700 smokers per survey with replenishment of those lost to follow-up. Over the eight survey waves, a total of 260 different cigarette brands were reported by smokers, of which 17% were classified as premium and 83% as discount brands. Marlboro, Newport, and Camel were the most popular premium brands reported by smokers in our sample over all eight survey waves. The percentage of smokers using discount brands increased between 2002 and 2011, with a marked increase in brand switching from premium to discount cigarettes observed after 2009 corresponding to the $0.61 increase in the federal excise tax on cigarettes. Cigarette brand preferences varied by age group and income levels with younger, higher income smokers more likely to report smoking premium brand cigarettes, while older, middle and lower income, heavier smokers were more likely to report using discount brands. Our data suggest that demographic and smoking trends favour the continued growth of low priced cigarette brands. From a tobacco control perspective, the findings from this study suggest that governments should consider enacting stronger minimum pricing laws in order to keep the base price of cigarettes high, since aggressive price marketing will likely continue to be used by manufacturers to compete for the shrinking pool of remaining smokers in the population.

  8. Dynamical instabilities in a simple minority game with discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Challet, D; De Martino, A; Marsili, M

    2008-01-01

    We explore the effect of discounting and experimentation in a simple model of interacting adaptive agents. Agents belong to either of two types and each has to decide whether to participate in a game or not, the game being profitable when there is an excess of players of the other type. We find the emergence of large fluctuations as a result of the onset of a dynamical instability which may arise discontinuously (increasing the discount factor) or continuously (decreasing the experimentation rate). The phase diagram is characterized in detail and noise amplification close to a bifurcation point is identified as the physical mechanism behind the instability. (letter)

  9. Life Insurance and Annuity Demand under Hyperbolic Discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siqi Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyse and construct a lifetime utility maximisation model with hyperbolic discounting. Within the model, a number of assumptions are made: complete markets, actuarially fair life insurance/annuity is available, and investors have time-dependent preferences. Time dependent preferences are in contrast to the usual case of constant preferences (exponential discounting. We find: (1 investors (realistically demand more life insurance after retirement (in contrast to the standard model, which showed strong demand for life annuities, and annuities are rarely purchased; (2 optimal consumption paths exhibit a humped shape (which is usually only found in incomplete markets under the assumptions of the standard model.

  10. 47 CFR 54.505 - Discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    .... (2) For libraries and library consortia, the level of poverty shall be based on the percentage of the... shared by two or more of their schools, libraries, or consortia members by calculating an average based..., school districts, libraries, or library consortia based on the institution's level of poverty and...

  11. Concordance between monetary and sexual delay discounting in men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeb; Guest, Jodie L; Sullivan, Patrick S; Kramer, Michael R; Jenness, Samuel M; Sales, Jessica M

    2017-12-07

    Background: Delay discounting has been found to be associated with numerous health-related outcomes, including risky sexual behaviour. To date, it is unclear whether delay discounting measured in different domains is associated within individuals. The goal of this study was to assess the concordance of monetary and sexual delay discounting in men who have sex with men. Methods: Participants completed an online survey, including the Monetary Choice Questionnaire and the Sexual Discounting Task. Linear regression models were used to assess the association between monetary and sexual discount rates. Results: Sexual discount rates did not predict monetary discount rates. There was a substantial amount of clustering of sexual discount rates, requiring sexual discounting data to be categorised. Conclusions: Monetary and sexual delay discounting are distinct processes that are not necessarily associated within individuals, and monetary delay discounting is not an appropriate proxy measure for sexual impulsivity. Data from the Sexual Discounting Task are typically rank-transformed for analysis. These data suggest that this might be an invalid method of analysis. Future studies should investigate the distribution of their data to determine if it is appropriate to analyse sexual discounting data as a continuous measure.

  12. On Averaging Rotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gramkow, Claus

    1999-01-01

    In this article two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very offten the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belo...... approximations to the Riemannian metric, and that the subsequent corrections are inherient in the least squares estimation. Keywords: averaging rotations, Riemannian metric, matrix, quaternion......In this article two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very offten the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong...

  13. Climate change and the ethics of discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate policy-making requires a balancing, however rudimentary, of the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions against the benefits of reduced risks of climate change. Since those creating and those facing the risks of climate change belong to different generations, striking the balance is

  14. Comparison of Biomarkers of Tobacco Exposure between Premium and Discount Brand Cigarette Smokers in the NHANES 2011-2012 Special Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasserman, Emily J; Reilly, Samantha M; Goel, Reema; Foulds, Jonathan; Richie, John P; Muscat, Joshua E

    2018-05-01

    Background: Increased cigarette costs have inadvertently strengthened the appeal of discounted brands to price-sensitive smokers. Although smokers perceive discounted brands as having poorer quality, little is known about their delivery of toxic tobacco smoke constituents compared with premium-branded tobacco products. Methods: We investigated the differences between discount and premium brand smokers using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2012 Special Smoker Sample. Our analyses focused on demographic differences and 27 biomarkers of harmful and potentially harmful constituents (HPHC) listed by the FDA, including volatile organic compounds, 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol and its glucuronide [4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol glucuronide; reported as total NNAL (tNNAL)], metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Data were analyzed using linear regression models adjusting for potential confounders. Results: A total of 976 non-tobacco users and 578 recent cigarette smokers were eligible for analysis, of which 141 (26.0% weighted) smoked discount brand cigarettes and 437 (74.0% weighted) smoked premium. Discount brand smokers were older, predominantly non-Hispanic white, and had higher serum cotinine. Discount brand smokers had significantly higher levels of 13 smoking-related biomarkers, including tNNAL, uranium, styrene, xylene, and biomarkers of exposure to PAHs (naphthalene, fluorene, and phenanthrene), compared with premium brand smokers. Conclusions: These findings suggest that discount cigarette use is associated with higher exposure to several carcinogenic and toxic HPHCs. Impact: These results may have important regulatory implications for product standards, as higher exposures could lead to a greater degree of harm. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(5); 601-9. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

  15. Are Academic Discounting and Devaluing Double-Edged Swords? Their Relations to Global Self-Esteem, Achievement Goals, and Performance among Stigmatized Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loose, Florence; Regner, Isabelle; Morin, Alexandre J. S.; Dumas, Florence

    2012-01-01

    Often taken for granted, the coexistence of benefits and costs of discounting and devaluing has never been tested. Yet, not only are there inconsistent findings about the relations between these processes and global self-esteem, but little is known about their relations to motivation and performance. Here we simultaneously examined how academic…

  16. Averaged RMHD equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichiguchi, Katsuji

    1998-01-01

    A new reduced set of resistive MHD equations is derived by averaging the full MHD equations on specified flux coordinates, which is consistent with 3D equilibria. It is confirmed that the total energy is conserved and the linearized equations for ideal modes are self-adjoint. (author)

  17. Determining average yarding distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger H. Twito; Charles N. Mann

    1979-01-01

    Emphasis on environmental and esthetic quality in timber harvesting has brought about increased use of complex boundaries of cutting units and a consequent need for a rapid and accurate method of determining the average yarding distance and area of these units. These values, needed for evaluation of road and landing locations in planning timber harvests, are easily and...

  18. Average Revisited in Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane; Chick, Helen

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the responses of 247 middle school students to items requiring the concept of average in three different contexts: a city's weather reported in maximum daily temperature, the number of children in a family, and the price of houses. The mixed but overall disappointing performance on the six items in the three contexts indicates…

  19. Averaging operations on matrices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-07-03

    Jul 3, 2014 ... Role of Positive Definite Matrices. • Diffusion Tensor Imaging: 3 × 3 pd matrices model water flow at each voxel of brain scan. • Elasticity: 6 × 6 pd matrices model stress tensors. • Machine Learning: n × n pd matrices occur as kernel matrices. Tanvi Jain. Averaging operations on matrices ...

  20. Average-energy games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Bouyer

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Two-player quantitative zero-sum games provide a natural framework to synthesize controllers with performance guarantees for reactive systems within an uncontrollable environment. Classical settings include mean-payoff games, where the objective is to optimize the long-run average gain per action, and energy games, where the system has to avoid running out of energy. We study average-energy games, where the goal is to optimize the long-run average of the accumulated energy. We show that this objective arises naturally in several applications, and that it yields interesting connections with previous concepts in the literature. We prove that deciding the winner in such games is in NP inter coNP and at least as hard as solving mean-payoff games, and we establish that memoryless strategies suffice to win. We also consider the case where the system has to minimize the average-energy while maintaining the accumulated energy within predefined bounds at all times: this corresponds to operating with a finite-capacity storage for energy. We give results for one-player and two-player games, and establish complexity bounds and memory requirements.

  1. Generic drug discount programs: are prescriptions being submitted for pharmacy benefit adjudication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tungol, Alexandra; Starner, Catherine I; Gunderson, Brent W; Schafer, Jeremy A; Qiu, Yang; Gleason, Patrick P

    2012-01-01

    supply on July 1, 2006, was the index claim. Members with a Kmart pharmacy index claim were excluded, since the Kmart membership drug discount program began prior to July 1, 2006. Levothyroxine claims capture nonpersistency, defined as the occurrence of a claim supply end date prior to a 180-day gap, was the primary outcome variable and was assessed from July 1, 2006, through June 30, 2010 (follow-up period). The odds of levothyroxine claims capture nonpersistency by pharmacy group were assessed using a logistic regression analysis adjusted for the following covariates: age, gender, median income in the ZIP code of residence (binomial for ≤ $50,000 vs. greater than $50,000), switch to a brand levothyroxine product during the follow-up period, index levothyroxine claim supply of 90 days or more, and index levothyroxine claim member cost share per 30-day supply in tertiles (≤ $5.00, $5.01-$7.99, ≥ $8.00). Of 2,632,855 eligible members aged 18 years or older, 13,427 met all study eligibility criteria. The baseline pharmacy groups were membership with 3,595 (26.8%), nonmembership with 1,919 (14.3%), and all other pharmacies with 7,913 (58.9%) members. The rates of levothyroxine claims capture persistency throughout the 4-year follow-up period were 85.4% for nonmembership (P = 0.593 vs. all other pharmacies), 77.7% for the membership group (P  less than  0.001 vs. all other pharmacies), and 85.9% for all other pharmacies. The Kaplan-Meier comparison of claims capture persistency found nearly identical claims capture loss for the nonmembership compared with all other pharmacies group, and when compared in a multivariate logistic regression model, there was no difference in the odds of levothyroxine claims capture over 4 years follow-up (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.88-1.16, P = 0.900). The membership generic drug discount programs (Walgreens, CVS, Alberstons, and Savon pharmacies) had a statistically significant 61% higher odds (OR = 1.61, 95

  2. Delay discounting as a function of intrinsic/extrinsic religiousness, religious fundamentalism, and regular church attendance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N; Plumm, Karyn M

    2012-01-01

    Delay discounting occurs when the subjective value of an outcome decreases because its delivery is delayed. Previous research has suggested that the rate at which some, but not all, outcomes are discounted varies as a function of regular church attendance. In the present study, 509 participants completed measures of intrinsic religiousness, extrinsic religiousness, religious fundamentalism, and whether they regularly attended church services. They then completed a delay-discounting task involving five outcomes. Although religiousness was not a significant predictor of discounting for all outcomes, participants scoring high in intrinsic religiousness tended to display less delay discounting than participants scoring low. Likewise, participants scoring high in religious fundamentalism tended to display more delay discounting than participants scoring low. These results partially replicate previous ones in showing that the process of discounting may vary as a function of religiousness. The results also provide some direction for those interested in altering how individuals discount.

  3. A comparison of probability of ruin and expected discounted utility ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Individuals in defined-contribution retirement funds currently have a number of options as to how to finance their post-retirement spending. The paper considers the ranking of selected annuitisation strategies by the probability of ruin and by expected discounted utility under different scenarios. 'Ruin' is defined as occurring ...

  4. Deriving the Dividend Discount Model in the Intermediate Microeconomics Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Stephen; Schlaudraff, Jonathan; White, Karianne; Wills, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the authors show that the dividend discount model can be derived using the basic intertemporal consumption model that is introduced in a typical intermediate microeconomics course. This result will be of use to instructors who teach microeconomics to finance students in that it demonstrates the value of utility maximization in…

  5. Age Differences in Future Orientation and Delay Discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Laurence; Graham, Sandra; O'Brien, Lia; Woolard, Jennifer; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Banich, Marie

    2009-01-01

    Age differences in future orientation are examined in a sample of 935 individuals between 10 and 30 years using a delay discounting task as well as a new self-report measure. Younger adolescents consistently demonstrate a weaker orientation to the future than do individuals aged 16 and older, as reflected in their greater willingness to accept a…

  6. 24 CFR 201.13 - Interest and discount points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... Interest on the loan shall accrue from the date of the loan, and shall be calculated on a simple interest... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest and discount points. 201... TITLE I PROPERTY IMPROVEMENT AND MANUFACTURED HOME LOANS Loan and Note Provisions § 201.13 Interest and...

  7. MODERN INDICATORS DERIVED FROM VALUE CREATION AND DISCOUNTED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cican Simona

    2013-07-01

    In this article, we will present the connection between discounted cash flow methods and the indicators derived from value creation, based on the business finance theory, which says that firm value will increase if projects with positive net present value are accepted, while it will be destroyed if projects with negative net present value are accepted.

  8. Implicit individual discount rate in China: A contingent valuation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hua; He, Jie

    2018-03-15

    Two contingent valuation (CV) surveys were conducted in Kunming, China, to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP) for the Panlong River rehabilitation project. The two surveys were conducted using the same procedures and questionnaires except for the payment schedule arrangements, which permitted a calculation of respondents' implicit discount rate. The surveys provided two estimates of WTP, one with a mean of 23 Yuan in monthly payment over 5 years and the other with a mean of 311 Yuan in a lump-sum payment that will cover all the expenses for a period of 5 years. The results produce an estimate of monthly discount rate of 7.6%-12.6% or annual discount rate of 141-315%. The estimates are higher than that reported from those studies conducted in the U.S., but are compatible with that of some other studies. This study also shows that both mean individual WTP and implicit individual discount rates are closely related to household demographic and economic characteristics and environment-related perceptions, as reported in the studies conducted in other countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Relation between Time Perspective and Delay Discounting: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teuscher, Ursina; Mitchell, Suzanne H.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we examine the relation between delay discounting and future time perspective by reviewing how these concepts have been measured and quantified in order to assess their conceptual similarities. The extent to which the different measures are empirically related is reviewed by describing studies that have assessed both constructs…

  10. Gender-Specific Effects of Cognitive Load on Social Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strombach, Tina; Margittai, Zsofia; Gorczyca, Barbara; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    We live busy, social lives, and meeting the challenges of our complex environments puts strain on our cognitive systems. However, cognitive resources are limited. It is unclear how cognitive load affects social decision making. Previous findings on the effects of cognitive load on other-regarding preferences have been ambiguous, allowing no coherent opinion whether cognitive load increases, decreases or does not affect prosocial considerations. Here, we suggest that social distance between individuals modulates whether generosity towards a recipient increases or decreases under cognitive load conditions. Participants played a financial social discounting task with several recipients at variable social distance levels. In this task, they could choose between generous alternatives, yielding medium financial rewards for the participant and recipient at variable social distances, or between a selfish alternative, yielding larger rewards for the participant alone. We show that the social discount function of male participants was significantly flattened under high cognitive load conditions, suggesting they distinguished less between socially close and socially distant recipients. Unexpectedly, the cognitive-load effect on social discounting was gender-specific: while social discounting was strongly dependent on cognitive load in men, women were nearly unaffected by cognitive load manipulations. We suggest that cognitive load leads men, but not women to simplify the decision problem by neglecting the social distance information. We consider our study a good starting point for further experiments exploring the role of gender in prosocial choice.

  11. Market and Impact Study Setting Up MMX Discount Store

    OpenAIRE

    Sabina Irimie; Andreea Ionică; Virginia Băleanu; Cristina Osvath

    2008-01-01

    The paper is focused on the following elements of the impact study’s content: social and economic features of the area and the social, economic and commercial impact. Currently we witness the materialisation of the research’s results by setting up such a store MMX DISCOUNT in the town of Vulcan from the Jiu Valley

  12. College Students Discount Money "Won" More than Money "Owed"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N.; Derenne, Adam; Terrell, Heather K.

    2010-01-01

    Evidence in the research literature indicates people may treat "won" money differently than they would their own money. The present study had a sample of 648 college students complete a delay-discounting task that involved the hypothetical monetary amounts of $1,000 or $100,000. Participants were asked repeatedly what amount they would…

  13. Maximizing the model for Discounted Stream of Utility from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osagiede et al. (2009) considered an analytic model for maximizing discounted stream of utility from consumption when the rate of production is linear. A solution was provided to a level where methods of solving order differential equations will be applied, but they left off there, as a result of the mathematical complexity ...

  14. Special discount to the members of the Staff Association

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2012-01-01

    FNAC 5% discount on gifts card available in four Swiss shops without any restriction. Gifts card on sale to the Staff Association Secretariat. TPG 50 CHF discount on annual subscriptions. Subscription « tout Genève » for adult: 650 CHF; for junior: 400 CHF. On sale to the Staff Association Secretariat. Théâtre de Carouge Discount of 5.-CHF for all shows (30.– CHF instead of 35.-CHF) and on season tickets « first performance » ( 132.– CHF instead 162.– CHF) and also on « classical » ( 150.– CHF instead of 180.– CHF) upon presentation of your Staff Association membership card before payment. Aquaparc Discounted prices on admission of whole day. Children from 5 to 15 years: 30.-CHF instead of 39.-CHF; Adults from 16 years: 36.-CHF instead of 49.-CHF. Tickets on sale to the Staff Association Secretariat. Go Sport 15% off on all purchases in the whole shop upon present...

  15. Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andonov, Aleksandar; Bauer, Rob; Cremers, Martijn

    2017-01-01

    The unique regulation of U.S. public pension funds links their liability discount rate to the expected return on assets, which gives them incentives to invest more in risky assets in order to report a better funding status. Comparing public and private pension funds in the United States, Canada, and

  16. A comparison of average wages with age-specific wages for assessing indirect productivity losses: analytic simplicity versus analytic precision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark P; Tashjian, Cole; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Bhatt, Aomesh; Postma, Maarten J

    2017-07-01

    Numerous approaches are used to estimate indirect productivity losses using various wage estimates applied to poor health in working aged adults. Considering the different wage estimation approaches observed in the published literature, we sought to assess variation in productivity loss estimates when using average wages compared with age-specific wages. Published estimates for average and age-specific wages for combined male/female wages were obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics. A polynomial interpolation was used to convert 5-year age-banded wage data into annual age-specific wages estimates. To compare indirect cost estimates, average wages and age-specific wages were used to project productivity losses at various stages of life based on the human capital approach. Discount rates of 0, 3, and 6 % were applied to projected age-specific and average wage losses. Using average wages was found to overestimate lifetime wages in conditions afflicting those aged 1-27 and 57-67, while underestimating lifetime wages in those aged 27-57. The difference was most significant for children where average wage overestimated wages by 15 % and for 40-year-olds where it underestimated wages by 14 %. Large differences in projecting productivity losses exist when using the average wage applied over a lifetime. Specifically, use of average wages overestimates productivity losses between 8 and 15 % for childhood illnesses. Furthermore, during prime working years, use of average wages will underestimate productivity losses by 14 %. We suggest that to achieve more precise estimates of productivity losses, age-specific wages should become the standard analytic approach.

  17. An Examination of The Transdiagnostic Role of Delay Discounting in Psychological Inflexibility and Mental Health Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Levin, Michael; Haeger, Jack; Ong, Clarissa W.; Twohig, Michael P.

    2018-01-01

    Delay discounting is a basic behavioral process that has been found to predict addictive behaviors, and more recently, other mental health problems. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT), is a transdiagnostic treatment that appears to alter delay discounting, possibly through reducing psychological inflexibility. The current study sought to further bridge research on delay discounting and ACT by examining the relation of delay discounting to a broad range of selfreported mental health probl...

  18. Tariff-Mediated Network Effects versus Strategic Discounting: Evidence from German Mobile Telecommunications

    OpenAIRE

    Zucchini, Leon; Claussen, Jörg; Trüg, Moritz

    2013-01-01

    Mobile telecommunication operators routinely charge subscribers lower prices for calls on their own network than for calls to other networks (on-net discounts). Studies on tariff-mediated network effects suggest this is due to large operators using on-net discounts to damage smaller rivals. Alternatively, research on strategic discounting suggests small operators use on-net discounts to advertise with low on-net prices. We test the relative strength of these effects using data on tariff setti...

  19. On Averaging Rotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gramkow, Claus

    2001-01-01

    In this paper two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very often the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong ...... approximations to the Riemannian metric, and that the subsequent corrections are inherent in the least squares estimation.......In this paper two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very often the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong...

  20. Optimal batch production strategies under continuous price decrease and time discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandal S.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Single price discount in unit cost for bulk purchasing is quite common in reality as well as in inventory literature. However, in today's high-tech industries such as personal computers and mobile industries, continuous decrease in unit cost is a regular phenomenon. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to investigate the effects of continuous price decrease and time-value of money on optimal decisions for inventoried goods having time-dependent demand and production rates. The proposed models are developed over a finite time horizon considering both shortages and without shortages in inventory. Numerical examples are taken to illustrate the developed models and to examine the sensitivity of model parameters.

  1. The Importance of using Discounted Cash Flow Methodology in Techno-economic Analyses of Energy and Chemical Production Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zorka Novak Pintarič

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the correct application of discounted cash flow methodology forevaluating and designing energy and chemical production plants. Such processes usuallycorrespond to capital intensive long-term projects. Simple economic criteria, like theprofit or production cost are insufficient for this type of decision making because they donot take into account the time value of money and underestimate the profitabilities of theevaluated plants. This paper shows that some of those criteria based on the discountedcash flows establish suitable compromises between long-term cash flow generation andprofitability. As several alternative options are usually evaluated in parallel, it is shownhow to rank mutually exclusive alternatives properly and how to select the best optionfrom among them. Two large-scale case studies demonstrate that using discounted cashflow methodology can result in substantially different decisions than non-discountedcriteria, however, these decisions are affected by several input parameters.

  2. Dynamic optimization approach for integrated supplier selection and tracking control of single product inventory system with product discount

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutrisno; Widowati; Heru Tjahjana, R.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in the form of dynamic/multi-stage optimization to solve an integrated supplier selection problem and tracking control problem of single product inventory system with product discount. The product discount will be stated as a piece-wise linear function. We use dynamic programming to solve this proposed optimization to determine the optimal supplier and the optimal product volume that will be purchased from the optimal supplier for each time period so that the inventory level tracks a reference trajectory given by decision maker with minimal total cost. We give a numerical experiment to evaluate the proposed model. From the result, the optimal supplier was determined for each time period and the inventory level follows the given reference well.

  3. 78 FR 67393 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-12

    ... Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate...

  4. 31 CFR 356.21 - How are awards at the high yield or discount rate calculated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... discount rate calculated? 356.21 Section 356.21 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money... high yield or discount rate calculated? (a) Awards to submitters. We generally prorate bids at the highest accepted yield or discount rate under § 356.20(a)(2) of this part. For example, if 80.15% is the...

  5. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  6. Effects of a Capital Investment and a Discount Rate on the Optimal Operational Duration of an HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Lee, Min Soo; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won

    2008-01-01

    This study aims to estimate the effects of a capital investment and a discount rate on the optimal operational duration of an HLW repository. According to the previous researches of the KRS(Korea Reference System) for an HLW repository, the amounts of 7,068,200 C$K and 2,636.2 MEUR are necessary to construct and operate surface and underground facilities. Since these huge costs can be a burden to some national economies, a study for a cost optimization should be performed. So we aim to drive the dominant cost driver for an optimal operational duration. A longer operational duration may be needed to dispose of more spent fuels continuously from a nuclear power plant, or to attain a retrievability of an HLW repository at a depth of 500 m below the ground level in a stable plutonic rock body. In this sense, an extended operational duration for an HLW repository affects the overall disposal costs of a repository. In this paper, only the influence of a capital investment and a discount rate was estimated from the view of optimized economics. Because these effects must be significant factors to minimize the overall disposal costs based on minimizing the sum of operational costs and capital investments

  7. Successful alliances driven by processes, not discounts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brett, J.F.; Craig, V.B.; Pile, K.E.; Wadsworth, D.B.; Brett, K.V.; Aslakson, J.

    1996-01-01

    When alliances are executed properly and partners have a full understanding of true integration, drilling ventures can improve their potential to reduce costs and accelerate production by 12--30%. Many companies enter alliances without a full grasp of the economic potential such a relationship might offer. Many alliances rely too heavily on relationship issues and commercial terms instead of focusing on integrating their technical processes successfully. Process-driven alliance (PDA) is the term adopted by a new Gas Research Institute report prepared by OGCI Management Inc. to represent a fundamentally different way to plan, execute, and evaluate drilling projects. This paper discusses the findings of the GRI study, describing the stability of PDAs, value chain, successful PDAs, changed commercial terms, and characteristics of failure

  8. Average is Over

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2018-02-01

    The popular perception of statistical distributions is depicted by the iconic bell curve which comprises of a massive bulk of 'middle-class' values, and two thin tails - one of small left-wing values, and one of large right-wing values. The shape of the bell curve is unimodal, and its peak represents both the mode and the mean. Thomas Friedman, the famous New York Times columnist, recently asserted that we have entered a human era in which "Average is Over" . In this paper we present mathematical models for the phenomenon that Friedman highlighted. While the models are derived via different modeling approaches, they share a common foundation. Inherent tipping points cause the models to phase-shift from a 'normal' bell-shape statistical behavior to an 'anomalous' statistical behavior: the unimodal shape changes to an unbounded monotone shape, the mode vanishes, and the mean diverges. Hence: (i) there is an explosion of small values; (ii) large values become super-large; (iii) 'middle-class' values are wiped out, leaving an infinite rift between the small and the super large values; and (iv) "Average is Over" indeed.

  9. Assessing the full costs of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, Jan Horst

    2016-01-01

    For decades, economists, energy specialists and policy-makers have been satisfied with assessing the comparative costs of electricity generation on the basis of discounted average costs over the lifetime and the total output of a generating plant. As a standardised form of cost-benefit accounting (CBA), these levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) indicate the required expenditures in terms of capital, fuel, and operations and management (O and M), adjusted for their incidence in time or the different technology options per unit of output (i.e. a MWh of electricity). This straightforward, transparent and comparatively simple metric worked well in a context of regulated markets where generators were centrally dispatched according to system requirements, tariffs were set by regulators and load factors could be predicted with confidence. In order to satisfy a given demand for electricity, the technology with the lowest LCOE was usually chosen, thus minimising the costs of the electricity system. Nuclear energy thus competed with hydro, where available, and coal and gas on the basis of their respective capital, labour and fuel costs at the level of the individual plant. (author)

  10. Costs and Cost Effectiveness of Three Approaches for Cervical Cancer Screening among HIV-Positive Women in Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lince-Deroche, Naomi; Phiri, Jane; Michelow, Pam; Smith, Jennifer S; Firnhaber, Cindy

    2015-01-01

    South Africa has high rates of HIV and HPV and high incidence and mortality from cervical cancer. However, cervical cancer is largely preventable when early screening and treatment are available. We estimate the costs and cost-effectiveness of conventional cytology (Pap), visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) and HPV DNA testing for detecting cases of CIN2+ among HIV-infected women currently taking antiretroviral treatment at a public HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. Method effectiveness was derived from a validation study completed at the clinic. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using micro-costing between June 2013-April 2014. Capital costs were annualized using a discount rate of 3%. Two different service volume scenarios were considered. Threshold analysis was used to explore the potential for reducing the cost of HPV DNA testing. VIA was least costly in both scenarios. In the higher volume scenario, the average cost per procedure was US$ 3.67 for VIA, US$ 8.17 for Pap and US$ 54.34 for HPV DNA. Colposcopic biopsies cost on average US$ 67.71 per procedure. VIA was least sensitive but most cost-effective at US$ 17.05 per true CIN2+ case detected. The cost per case detected for Pap testing was US$ 130.63 using a conventional definition for positive results and US$ 187.52 using a more conservative definition. HPV DNA testing was US$ 320.09 per case detected. Colposcopic biopsy costs largely drove the total and per case costs. A 71% reduction in HPV DNA screening costs would make it competitive with the conservative Pap definition. Women need access to services which meet their needs and address the burden of cervical dysplasia and cancer in this region. Although most cost-effective, VIA may require more frequent screening due to low sensitivity, an important consideration for an HIV-positive population with increased risk for disease progression.

  11. Costs and Cost Effectiveness of Three Approaches for Cervical Cancer Screening among HIV-Positive Women in Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi Lince-Deroche

    Full Text Available South Africa has high rates of HIV and HPV and high incidence and mortality from cervical cancer. However, cervical cancer is largely preventable when early screening and treatment are available. We estimate the costs and cost-effectiveness of conventional cytology (Pap, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA and HPV DNA testing for detecting cases of CIN2+ among HIV-infected women currently taking antiretroviral treatment at a public HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa.Method effectiveness was derived from a validation study completed at the clinic. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using micro-costing between June 2013-April 2014. Capital costs were annualized using a discount rate of 3%. Two different service volume scenarios were considered. Threshold analysis was used to explore the potential for reducing the cost of HPV DNA testing.VIA was least costly in both scenarios. In the higher volume scenario, the average cost per procedure was US$ 3.67 for VIA, US$ 8.17 for Pap and US$ 54.34 for HPV DNA. Colposcopic biopsies cost on average US$ 67.71 per procedure. VIA was least sensitive but most cost-effective at US$ 17.05 per true CIN2+ case detected. The cost per case detected for Pap testing was US$ 130.63 using a conventional definition for positive results and US$ 187.52 using a more conservative definition. HPV DNA testing was US$ 320.09 per case detected. Colposcopic biopsy costs largely drove the total and per case costs. A 71% reduction in HPV DNA screening costs would make it competitive with the conservative Pap definition.Women need access to services which meet their needs and address the burden of cervical dysplasia and cancer in this region. Although most cost-effective, VIA may require more frequent screening due to low sensitivity, an important consideration for an HIV-positive population with increased risk for disease progression.

  12. Benefit assessment in Germany: implications for price discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theidel, Ulrike; von der Schulenburg, J-Matthias Graf

    2016-12-01

    The AMNOG regulation, introduced in 2011 in Germany, changed the game for new drugs. Now, the industry is required to submit a dossier to the GBA (the central decision body in the German sickness fund system) to show additional benefit. After granting the magnitude of the additional benefit by the GBA, the manufacturer is entitled to negotiate the reimbursement price with the GKV-SV (National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds). The reimbursement price is defined as a discount on the drug price at launch. As the price or discount negotiations between the manufacturers and the GKV-SV takes place behind closed doors, the factors influencing the results of the negotiation are not known. The aim of this evaluation is to identify factors influencing the results of the AMNOG price negotiation process. The analysis was based on a dataset containing detailed information on all assessments until the end of 2015. A descriptive analysis was followed by an econometric analysis of various potential factors (benefit rating, size of target population, deviating from appropriate comparative therapy and incorporation of HRQoL-data). Until December 2015, manufacturers and the GKV-SV finalized 96 negotiations in 193 therapeutic areas, based on assessment conducted by the GBA. The GBA has granted an additional benefit to 100/193 drug innovations. Negotiated discount was significantly higher for those drugs without additional benefit (p = 0.030) and non-orphan drugs (p = 0.015). Smaller population size, no deviation from recommended appropriate comparative therapy and the incorporation of HRQoL-data were associated with a lower discount on the price at launch. However, neither a uni- nor the multivariate linear regression showed enough power to predict the final discount. Although the AMNOG regulation implemented binding and strict rules for the benefit assessment itself, the outcome of the discount negotiations are still unpredictable. Obviously, negotiation

  13. Average nuclear surface properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groote, H. von.

    1979-01-01

    The definition of the nuclear surface energy is discussed for semi-infinite matter. This definition is extended also for the case that there is a neutron gas instead of vacuum on the one side of the plane surface. The calculations were performed with the Thomas-Fermi Model of Syler and Blanchard. The parameters of the interaction of this model were determined by a least squares fit to experimental masses. The quality of this fit is discussed with respect to nuclear masses and density distributions. The average surface properties were calculated for different particle asymmetry of the nucleon-matter ranging from symmetry beyond the neutron-drip line until the system no longer can maintain the surface boundary and becomes homogeneous. The results of the calculations are incorporated in the nuclear Droplet Model which then was fitted to experimental masses. (orig.)

  14. Americans' Average Radiation Exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    We live with radiation every day. We receive radiation exposures from cosmic rays, from outer space, from radon gas, and from other naturally radioactive elements in the earth. This is called natural background radiation. It includes the radiation we get from plants, animals, and from our own bodies. We also are exposed to man-made sources of radiation, including medical and dental treatments, television sets and emission from coal-fired power plants. Generally, radiation exposures from man-made sources are only a fraction of those received from natural sources. One exception is high exposures used by doctors to treat cancer patients. Each year in the United States, the average dose to people from natural and man-made radiation sources is about 360 millirem. A millirem is an extremely tiny amount of energy absorbed by tissues in the body

  15. Costs and benefits of individuals conceived after IVF: a net tax evaluation in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moolenaar, L M; Connolly, M; Huisman, B; Postma, M J; Hompes, P G A; van der Veen, F; Mol, B W J

    2014-02-01

    This study evaluated the lifetime future net tax revenues from individuals conceived after IVF relative to those naturally conceived. A model based on the method of generational accounting was developed to evaluate investments in IVF. Calculations were based on average investments paid and received from the government by an individual. All costs were discounted to their net present values and adjusted for survival. The lifetime net present value of IVF-conceived individuals was -€81,374 (the minus sign reflecting negative net present value). The lifetime net present value of IVF-conceived men and women were -€47,091 and -€123,177, respectively. The lifetime net present value of naturally conceived individuals was -€70,392; respective amounts for men and women were -€36,109 and -€112,195. The model was most sensitive to changes in the growth of healthcare costs, economic growth and the discount rate. Therefore, it is concluded that, similarly to naturally conceived individuals in the Netherlands, IVF-conceived individuals have negative discounted net tax revenue at the end of life. The analytic framework described here undervalues the incremental value of an additional birth because it only considers the fiscal consequences of life and does not take into consideration broader macroeconomic benefits. This study evaluated the lifetime future net tax revenues from individuals conceived after IVF relative those naturally conceived. A model based on the method of generational accounting to evaluate investments in IVF was used. Calculations were based on average investments paid and received from the government by an individual. The lifetime net present value of IVF-conceived individuals was -€81,374 (the minus sign reflecting negative net present value). The lifetime net present value of IVF-conceived men and women were -€47,091 and -€123,177, respectively. The lifetime net present value of naturally conceived individuals was -€70,392; respective

  16. Steeper discounting of delayed rewards in schizophrenia but not first-degree relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Linda Q; Lee, Sangil; Katchmar, Natalie; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Kable, Joseph W; Wolf, Daniel H

    2017-06-01

    Excessive discounting of future rewards has been related to a variety of risky behaviors and adverse clinical conditions. Prior work examining delay discounting in schizophrenia suggests an elevated discount rate. However, it remains uncertain whether this reflects the disease process itself or an underlying genetic vulnerability, whether it is selective for delay discounting or reflects pervasive changes in decision-making, and whether it is driven by specific clinical dimensions such as cognitive impairment. Here we investigated delay discounting, as well as loss aversion and risk aversion, in three groups: schizophrenia (SZ), unaffected first-degree family members (FM), and controls without a family history of psychosis (NC). SZ had elevated discounting, without changes in loss aversion or risk aversion. Contrary to expectations, the FM group did not show an intermediate phenotype in discounting. Higher discount rates correlated with lower cognitive performance on verbal reasoning, but this did not explain elevated discount rates in SZ. Group differences were driven primarily by the non-smoking majority of the sample. This study provides further evidence for elevated discounting in schizophrenia, and demonstrates that steeper discounting is not necessarily associated with familial risk, cannot be wholly accounted for by cognitive deficits, and is not attributable to smoking-related impulsivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

    2010-01-01

    Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

  18. Optimal repairable spare-parts procurement policy under total business volume discount environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascual, Rodrigo; Santelices, Gabriel; Lüer-Villagra, Armin; Vera, Jorge; Cawley, Alejandro Mac

    2017-01-01

    In asset intensive fields, where components are expensive and high system availability is required, spare parts procurement is often a critical issue. To gain competitiveness and market share is common for vendors to offer Total Business Volume Discounts (TBVD). Accordingly, companies must define the procurement and stocking policy of their spare parts in order to reduce procurement costs and increase asset availability. In response to those needs, this work presents an optimization model that maximizes the availability of the equipment under a TBVD environment, subject to a budget constraint. The model uses a single-echelon structure where parts can be repaired. It determines the optimal number of repairable spare parts to be stocked, giving emphasis on asset availability, procurement costs and service levels as the main decision criteria. A heuristic procedure that achieves high quality solutions in a fast and time-consistent way was implemented to improve the time required to obtain the model solution. Results show that using an optimal procurement policy of spare parts and accounting for TBVD produces better overall results and yields a better availability performance. - Highlights: • We propose a model for procurement of repairable components in single-echelon and business volume discount environments. • We used a mathematical model to develop a competitive heuristic that provides high quality solutions in very short times. • Our model places emphasis on using system availability, procurement costs and service levels as leading decision criteria. • The model can be used as an engine for a multi-criteria Decision Support System.

  19. The impact of building orientation and discount rates on a Portuguese reference building refurbishment decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandão de Vasconcelos, Ana; Cabaço, António; Pinheiro, Manuel Duarte; Manso, Armando

    2016-01-01

    Refurbishment, as part of the construction industry, has a strong global impact, not only from the viewpoint of economies but also from social and energy-efficiency perspectives. A thermal refurbishment process, in particular, involves numerous decisions and choices; the decision-makers being ultimately confronted with two major questions: which criterion should be adopted in the choice of the refurbishment construction solutions and which refurbishment construction solutions should be chosen? In this paper, a criterion based on technical and economic points of view is proposed, aiming to identify the cost-optimal package of energy efficient solutions from among a set of possible refurbishment measures, within the life cycle of buildings. Sensitivity analyses are also performed so that the results may help the decision-maker choose the appropriate refurbishment solutions to be adopted when different discount rates and building orientations are taken into consideration. A total of seven scenarios, for a macroeconomic perspective, and nine, for a financial perspective, are performed. The costoptimal methodology adopted, following the Directive 2010/31/EU (2010) recommendations, is applied to a Portuguese reference building. The analysis carried out allows obtaining low global life cycle costs solutions and points towards nearly Zero Energy Building (nZEB) concept. The results are important for drawing national political instruments on buildings energy efficiency. - Highlights: •Building refurbishment decision based on technical and economic points of view. •35.000 Packages of thermal rehabilitation solutions considered. •Building orientation and discount rate impact on the cost-optimal package of solutions. •Portuguese reference building case base.

  20. Individual discount rates and smoking: evidence from a field experiment in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Glenn W; Lau, Morten I; Rutström, E Elisabet

    2010-09-01

    We elicit measures of individual discount rates from a representative sample of the Danish population and test two substantive hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that smokers have higher individual discount rates than non-smokers. The second hypothesis is that smokers are more likely to have time inconsistent preferences than non-smokers, where time inconsistency is indicated by a hyperbolic discounting function. We control for the concavity of the utility function in our estimates of individual discount rates and find that male smokers have significantly higher discount rates than male non-smokers. However, smoking has no significant association with discount rates among women. This result is robust across exponential and hyperbolic discounting functions. We consider the sensitivity of our conclusions to a statistical specification that allows each observation to potentially be generated by more than one latent data-generating process. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Social interaction anxiety and the discounting of positive interpersonal events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilopoulos, Stephanos P; Banerjee, Robin

    2010-10-01

    Recent research has indicated that individuals with social interaction anxiety make biased interpretations of positive social interactions, with greater general apprehension in response to such events and more negative predictions about the future. There has also been some preliminary evidence for a second facet of interpretation bias, namely a failure to accept others' positive reactions at face value, but this has so far not been adequately studied. The present study developed a new measure of this "discounting" dimension and utilized a nonclinical sample of undergraduate students to provide an initial analysis of the scale. Results provide early support for the psychometric properties of our scale, and indicate that discounting mediates the relationship between social interaction anxiety and low positive affect, over and above the previously studied aspect of positive event interpretation bias. The implications for treatment interventions and further research are discussed.

  2. Three residual income valuation methods and discounted cash flow valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Pablo

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we show that the three residual Income models for equity valuation always yield the same value as the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation models. We use three residual income measures: Economic Profit, Economic Value Added (EVA) and Cash Value Added. We also show that economic profit and EVA are different, although Copeland, Koller and Murrin (2000, page 55) say that economic profit is a synonym of EVA. Specifically, we first show that the present value of the Economic Profit discoun...

  3. Watch for pitfalls of discounted cash flow techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, C W; McNamee, A H

    1991-04-01

    Discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques can enhance the effectiveness of a healthcare organization's capital budgeting decisions. But a financial manager unaware of common misapplications of DCF techniques may make capital decisions with a hidden bias against long-term projects, an inaccurate evaluation of options, or inappropriate estimations of expected inflation and risk. Social and psychological factors also can impede effective decisions on projects already introduced.

  4. Equivalence of ten different discounted cash flow valuation methods

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Pablo

    2004-01-01

    This paper shows that ten methods of company valuation using discounted cash flows (WACC; equity cash flow; capital cash flow; adjusted present value; residual income; EVA; business's risk-adjusted equity cash flow; business's risk-adjusted free cash flow; risk-free-adjusted equity cash flow; and risk-free-adjusted free cash flow) always give the same value when identical assumptions are used. This result is logical, since all the methods analyze the same reality using the same assumptions; t...

  5. Hippocampus, delay discounting, and vicarious trial-and-error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bett, David; Murdoch, Lauren H; Wood, Emma R; Dudchenko, Paul A

    2015-05-01

    In decision-making, an immediate reward is usually preferred to a delayed reward, even if the latter is larger. We tested whether the hippocampus is necessary for this form of temporal discounting, and for vicarious trial-and-error at the decision point. Rats were trained on a recently developed, adjustable delay-discounting task (Papale et al. (2012) Cogn Affect Behav Neurosci 12:513-526), which featured a choice between a small, nearly immediate reward, and a larger, delayed reward. Rats then received either hippocampus or sham lesions. Animals with hippocampus lesions adjusted the delay for the larger reward to a level similar to that of sham-lesioned animals, suggesting a similar valuation capacity. However, the hippocampus lesion group spent significantly longer investigating the small and large rewards in the first part of the sessions, and were less sensitive to changes in the amount of reward in the large reward maze arm. Both sham- and hippocampus-lesioned rats showed a greater amount of vicarious trial-and-error on trials in which the delay was adjusted. In a nonadjusting version of the delay discounting task, animals with hippocampus lesions showed more variability in their preference for a larger reward that was delayed by 10 s compared with sham-lesioned animals. To verify the lesion behaviorally, rat were subsequently trained on a water maze task, and rats with hippocampus lesions were significantly impaired compared with sham-lesioned animals. The findings on the delay discounting tasks suggest that damage to the hippocampus may impair the detection of reward magnitude. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  7. TEMPORAL INSENSITIVITY OF PVWTP AND IMPLIED DISCOUNT RATES IN CVM

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Sooil; Haab, Timothy C.

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of WTP is tested in terms of the present value and the implied discount rates are derived by varying the length of benefit and the temporal payment schedules. Results show that holding the length of the project constant, the present value of willingness to pay does not vary significantly across payment schemes (one time payment, versus life of the project, versus perpetuity). Heteroskedasticity of error term over payment schemes fails to be accepted. Holding the payment scheme...

  8. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...

  9. 10 CFR 600.145 - Cost and price analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE RULES Uniform Administrative Requirements for Grants and Cooperative Agreements With Institutions of Higher Education, Hospitals, and Other... quotations submitted, market prices and similar indicia, together with discounts. Cost analysis is the review...

  10. Hoarders Only Discount Consumables and are More Patient for Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Donald Vickers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with hoarding disorder (HD excessively acquire and retain goods while also exhibiting characteristics of impulsivity and addiction. However, HD individuals do not always perform impulsively in experiments, they do not appear interested in money, and they exhibit many features of risk-aversion and future-planning. To examine impulsivity in HD, we compared validated community participants high and low in hoarding tendencies on questionnaire measures of hoarding and impulsivity as well as a standard experimental measure of impulsivity (intertemporal discounting that was modified to compare decisions about money, pens, and snacks. Common discounting effects were replicated. Compared to the low hoarding group, the high hoarding group was more impatient for consumables (pens and snacks but they were more patient for money. This increased patience for money in high hoarding individuals is in contrast to all other studies on discounting in disordered populations, but consistent with the phenomenology of HD. HD does not appear to be driven by a fundamental inability to wait, but rather a specific, potent desire for consumable rewards.

  11. Hoarders Only Discount Consumables and Are More Patient for Money.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Brian D; Preston, Stephanie D; Gonzalez, Richard; Angott, Andrea M

    2016-01-01

    Individuals with hoarding disorder (HD) excessively acquire and retain goods while also exhibiting characteristics of impulsivity and addiction. However, HD individuals do not always perform impulsively in experiments, they do not appear interested in money, and they exhibit many features of risk-aversion and future-planning. To examine impulsivity in HD, we compared validated community participants high and low in hoarding tendencies on questionnaire measures of hoarding and impulsivity as well as a standard experimental measure of impulsivity (intertemporal discounting) that was modified to compare decisions about money, pens, and snacks. Common discounting effects were replicated. Compared to the low hoarding group, the high hoarding group was more impatient for consumables (pens and snacks) but they were more patient for money. This increased patience for money in high hoarding individuals is in contrast to all other studies on discounting in disordered populations, but consistent with the phenomenology of HD. HD does not appear to be driven by a fundamental inability to wait, but rather a specific, potent desire for consumable rewards.

  12. The impact of rotavirus vaccination on discounted net tax revenue in Egypt: a government perspective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark P; Topachevskyi, Oleksandr; Standaert, Baudouin; Ortega, Omayra; Postma, Maarten

    2012-08-01

    We evaluated national rotavirus (RV) immunization programme costs to estimate how resulting changes in morbidity and mortality will influence government fiscal accounts over time. The assumption was that increased childhood survival in vaccinated cohorts leads to increased numbers of children consuming government resource, and an increased number of future tax payers. Our objective was to evaluate the difference in lifetime discounted net tax revenue generated by RV vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts from the Egyptian government perspective. The model framework adopts the Egyptian government perspective for RV immunization costs (year 2009 values) and all government transfers (e.g. education costs, health costs, pensions). To reflect the government tax revenue, we applied a fixed income tax burden to earnings over the lifetime of vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. At each year of the model, we derive net taxes (gross taxes less transfers) discounted to the immunization year to reflect the present value of RV vaccination investment costs. Projected incremental net present values of the vaccinated cohort versus the unvaccinated cohort are $US6.1 million, $US58.1 million and $US55.7 million at 25-, 50- and 72-year time horizons, respectively. The internal rate of return for the government based on RV vaccination at years 25, 50 and 72 was 10.8%, 15.1% and 14.9, respectively. Within the first 5 years of vaccination, 76% of vaccine acquisition costs were offset due to direct and indirect cost savings attributed to a reduction in RV-related disease burden. Investments in RV vaccination in a single year are entirely offset when the vaccinated cohort of newborns reach 22 years of age. The government perspective is useful for evaluating investments in RV vaccination because of ongoing government transfers and tax receipts attributed to changes in RV-attributed morbidity and mortality. The analysis described here illustrates that investing in RV offers tangible long

  13. An EPQ model under cash discount and permissible delay in payments derived without derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Yung-Fu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the case where the retailer’s unit selling price and the purchasing price per unit are not necessarily equal within the economic production quantity (EPQ framework under cash discount and permissible delay in payments. We establish the retailer’s inventory system as a cost minimization problem to determine the retailer’s optimal inventory cycle time, optimal order quantity and optimal payment time. This paper provides an algebraic approach to determine the optimal cycle time, optimal order quantity and optimal payment time. This approach provides one theorem to efficiently determine the optimal solution. Some previously published results of other researchers are deduced as special cases. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the result and the managerial insights are also obtained.

  14. Analysis of the carbon sequestration costs of afforestation and reforestation agroforestry practices and the use of cost curves to evaluate their potential for implementation of climate change mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres, Arturo Balderas [Environment Department, University of York, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Occidente (ITESO), Tlaquepaque CP (Mexico); Technology and Sustainable Development Section, Center for Clean Technology and Environmental Policy, University of Twente/CSTM, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Marchant, Rob; Smart, James C.R. [Environment Department, University of York, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Lovett, Jon C. [Environment Department, University of York, YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Technology and Sustainable Development Section, Center for Clean Technology and Environmental Policy, University of Twente/CSTM, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Tipper, Richard [Ecometrica, Edinburgh, EH9 1PJ (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Carbon sequestration in forest sinks is an important strategy to remove greenhouse gases and to mitigate climate change; however its implementation has been limited under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol which has not created the incentives for widespread implementation. The objective of this paper is to analyze the sequestration costs of agroforestry afforestation and reforestation projects (ARPs) following a partial market equilibrium using average cost curves and economic break even analysis to identify the supply costs. The modelling done in this work contrasts the voluntary and clean development mechanism transaction costs. Data is based on the voluntary project, Scolel Te, being implemented in Mexico. Cost curves are developed for seven different sequestration options considering transaction and implementation costs; information from agricultural production in Chiapas Mexico is used to integrate opportunity costs of two agroforestry practices suggesting that sequestration costs may follow a 'U' shape, with an initial reduction due to economies of scale and a subsequent increase caused by high opportunity costs. The widespread implementation of agroforestry options not requiring complete land conversion (e.g. living fences and coffee under shade) might be cost effective strategies not generating high opportunity costs. Results also suggest that payments in the early years of the project and lower transaction costs favour the development of ARPs in the voluntary market especially in marginal rural areas with high discount rates. (author)

  15. Discounting of qualitatively different delayed health outcomes in current and never smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Jonathan E.; DeHart, William B.; Frye, Charles C. J.; Rung, Jillian M.; Odum, Amy L.

    2016-01-01

    In delay discounting, temporally remote outcomes have less value. Cigarette smoking is associated with steeper discounting of money and consumable outcomes. It is presently unclear whether smokers discount health outcomes more than non-smokers. We sought to establish the generality of steep discounting for different types of health outcomes in cigarette smokers. Seventy participants (38 smokers and 32 non-smokers) completed four hypothetical outcome delay-discounting tasks: a gain of $500, a loss of $500, a temporary boost in health, and temporary cure from a debilitating disease. Participants reported the duration of each health outcome that would be equivalent to $500; these durations were then used in the respective discounting tasks. Delays ranged from 1 week to 25 years. Smokers’ indifference points for monetary gains, boosts in health, and temporary cures were lower than indifference points from non-smokers. Indifference points of one outcome were correlated with indifference points of other outcomes. Smokers demonstrate steeper discounting across a range of delayed outcomes. How a person discounts one outcome predicts how they will discount other outcomes. These two findings support our assertion that delay discounting is in part a trait. PMID:26691848

  16. Unique prediction of cannabis use severity and behaviors by delay discounting and behavioral economic demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Justin C; Lile, Joshua A; Stoops, William W

    2017-07-01

    Few studies have simultaneously evaluated delay discounting and behavioral economic demand to determine their unique contribution to drug use. A recent study in cannabis users found that monetary delay discounting uniquely predicted cannabis dependence symptoms, whereas cannabis demand uniquely predicted use frequency. This study sought to replicate and extend this research by evaluating delay discounting and behavioral economic demand measures for multiple commodities and including a use quantity measure. Amazon.com's Mechanical Turk was used to sample individuals reporting recent cannabis use (n=64) and controls (n=72). Participants completed measures of monetary delay discounting as well as alcohol and cannabis delay discounting and demand. Cannabis users and controls did not differ on monetary delay discounting or alcohol delay discounting and demand. Among cannabis users, regression analyses indicated that cannabis delay discounting uniquely predicted use severity, whereas cannabis demand uniquely predicted use frequency and quantity. These effects remained significant after controlling for other delay discounting and demand measures. This research replicates previous outcomes relating delay discounting and demand with cannabis use and extends them by accounting for the contribution of multiple commodities. This research also demonstrates the ability of online crowdsourcing methods to complement traditional human laboratory techniques. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Cocaine dependent individuals discount future rewards more than future losses for both cocaine and monetary outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew W; Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Patrick S

    2015-01-01

    Cocaine dependence and other forms of drug dependence are associated with steeper devaluation of future outcomes (delay discounting). Although studies in this domain have typically assessed choices between monetary gains (e.g., receive less money now versus receive more money after a delay), delay discounting is also applicable to decisions involving losses (e.g., small loss now versus larger delayed loss), with gains typically discounted more than losses (the "sign effect"). It is also known that drugs are discounted more than equivalently valued money. In the context of drug dependence, however, relatively little is known about the discounting of delayed monetary and drug losses and the presence of the sign effect. In this within-subject, laboratory study, delay discounting for gains and losses was assessed for cocaine and money outcomes in cocaine-dependent individuals (n=89). Both cocaine and monetary gains were discounted at significantly greater rates than cocaine and monetary losses, respectively (i.e., the sign effect). Cocaine gains were discounted significantly more than monetary gains, but cocaine and monetary losses were discounted similarly. Results suggest that cocaine is discounted by cocaine-dependent individuals in a systematic manner similar to other rewards. Because the sign effect was shown for both cocaine and money, delayed aversive outcomes may generally have greater impact than delayed rewards in shaping present behavior in this population. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Hearing focuses on price of Norplant; Wyeth pledges discount for public sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-11-23

    In November 1993, Democratic US Representative Ron Wyden held a hearing on the cost of the contraceptive implant Norplant. Its US distributor, Wyeth-Ayerst, informed the US House Subcommittee on Regulation, Business Opportunities and Technology that it would offer the public sector a discounted price for Norplant 5 years after it had been on the US market. Public funds contributed to the development of Norplant. USAID provided $17.2 million of the $41.3 million that the Population Council spent on developing Norplant. Wyeth provided the Council levonorgestrel, the drug used in Norplant, thereby holding the right to market Norplant in the US and Canada. USAID buys Norplant from the distributor for all other countries for $23, while Wyeth sells Norplant in a package of insertion and educational materials for $365. This large gap infuriates groups providing family planning services to low-income women. Medicaid pays for Norplant and its insertion for the poorest women. Wealthier women either pay for Norplant themselves, or their health insurance pays for it. This leaves low-income women with no access to Norplant. Wyeth has formed the Norplant Foundation to provide Norplant to low-income women whom Medicaid will not cover. It also trains most providers in insertion and removal procedures. The law requires Wyeth to reimburse qualified public health clinics 15% of costs. The reason Wyeth does not yet give the public sector a discounted price is that it wants Norplant to become firmly entrenched in the private sector first. Other panelists commented on how Norplant's success may encourage other companies to return to contraception research. Liability and political controversy are still concerns, however. Another panelist expressed concern that consumers have become too dependent on pharmaceutical companies and their commercial interests.

  19. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Estimation of cost-effectiveness of poplar wood production in poplar plantations in Ravni Srem based on the cost-benefit method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keča Ljiljana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost-effectiveness of polar cultivation was analyzed based on one of the indicators for the assessment of agriculture and forestry projects - cost-benefit (r. Poplar plantations of the clone I-214 of different rotations and on different soil types were analyzed in the area of Ravni Srem. The aim of the study was to evaluate the justification of the invested financial means in wood production in poplar plantations, based on the analysis of costs and receipts at different plantation ages, using the cost-benefit method. It was found that in all 13 analyzed compartments, the average cost-benefit ratio was 0.36. This means that the costs at the discount rate of 12% are about 2.8 times higher than the receipts. Accordingly, it can be asserted that it is economically unjustified to invest in the projected stands, but only in the case when the value of social capital accounts for 12%. Based on the analysis of sensitivity of the cost-benefit method, it was concluded that cost benefit ratio for p=8-12% was below 1 within the study range of costs and receipts changes, while for p=4-6% this ratio was above 1 in some cases of decrease in costs, i.e. increase in receipts. It was noted that the change in r depending on the change in costs, developed by the exponential function, and the change in r depending on the change in receipts developed by the linear function. Also, it was concluded that at the lower discount rates, the values of r moved towards 1, so for 8% r=0.71, and for 6% r=0.94. The value at the discount rate of 4% indicates that the project is cost-effective and that the invested € 1 makes € 1.22. This fact is especially important when poplar cultivation projects are ranked. For this reason, this method is used for the evaluation of social benefits, i.e. for economic analyses. It is almost never applied in the analysis of private investments.

  1. Cost estimation of sumatra electricity expansion planning with nuclear option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwaren Liun

    2008-01-01

    The objective of the study is to obtain the cost analysis on optimum solution of Sumatra electricity system using WASP-IV Program. Considering the economic aspect, nuclear power plant (NPP) is feasible in the future. From the geographical aspect Sumatra is prospecting for NPP site, especially the east coastal area due to the absence of hydro power potential and geothermal field. The use of petroleum as fuel in large scale power plants is not feasible. Beside causing high cost for electricity sector, it is also an important fuel for any other sectors such as transportation, electrification of isolated areas. Gas fuelled power plants is still feasible for next several decades in limited capacity. The study presents three scenarios, i.e. Low Scenario, Base Scenario and High Scenario applying discount rate of 8%, 10% and 12% respectively. Cost estimation for Sumatra System Expansion Planning is 57 465 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 8%, 59 349 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 10%, and 57 796 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 12%. The objective function is 15 172 US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 8%, 12 663 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 10%, and 11 017 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 12%. (author)

  2. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  3. Investing in health: is social housing value for money? A cost-utility analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, K D; Kearns, A; Petticrew, M; Fenwick, E A L

    2013-10-01

    There is a healthy public policy agenda investigating the health impacts of improving living conditions. However, there are few economic evaluations, to date, assessing value for money. We conducted the first cost-effectiveness analysis of a nationwide intervention transferring social and private tenants to new-build social housing, in Scotland. A quasi-experimental prospective study was undertaken involving 205 intervention households and 246 comparison households, over 2 years. A cost-utility analysis assessed the average cost per change in health utility (a single score summarising overall health-related quality of life), generated via the SF-6D algorithm. Construction costs for new builds were included. Analysis was conducted for all households, and by family, adult and elderly households; with estimates adjusted for baseline confounders. Outcomes were annuitised and discounted at 3.5%. The average discounted cost was £18, 708 per household, at a national programme cost of £ 28.4 million. The average change in health utility scores in the intervention group attributable to the intervention were +0.001 for all households, +0.001 for family households, -0.04 for adult households and -0.03 for elderly households. All estimates were statistically insignificant. At face value, the interventions were not value for money in health terms. However, because the policy rationale was the amenity provision of housing for disadvantaged groups, impacts extend beyond health and may be fully realised over the long term. Before making general value-for-money inferences, economic evaluation should attempt to estimate the full social value of interventions, model long-term impacts and explicitly incorporate equity considerations.

  4. Decision processes in choice overload: a product of delay and probability discounting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D

    2013-07-01

    Recent research in the behavioral decision making literature has demonstrated that humans hyperbolically discount the subjective value of options as the number of options increases (Reed et al., 2012). These findings provide a cognitive-behavioral synthesis of the "choice overload" phenomenon, also known as the "paradox of choice." Specifically, these findings suggest that temporal discounting may serve as the underlying process contributing to this effect. As an extension, this study examined the effects of reward magnitude sizes had on rates temporal and options discounting. This manipulation was conducted to determine what role temporal discounting plays in discounting of options. The present results suggest that temporal discounting may not be the only process contributing to the choice overload effect. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. NREL: News - New Design Tool Analyzes Cost of Operating a Building Over its

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imagine being able to estimate the energy life-cycle costs of a new building by simply entering numbers upgrades including a discounted cash-flow evaluation of a building over its lifetime and a more powerful graphing package. The cash-flow evaluation of a building is determined and discounted to the present value

  6. Tuition fees and sunk-cost effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ketel, N.; Linde, J.; Oosterbeek, H.; van der Klaauw, B.

    2016-01-01

    This article reports on a field experiment testing for sunk-cost effects in an education setting. Students signing up for extra-curricular tutorial sessions randomly received a discount on the tuition fee. The sunk-cost effect predicts that students who pay more will attend more tutorial sessions,

  7. Manipulating the discount rate when valuing international investment projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Medved

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the practice of evaluation of international investment projects using the cash flow discounting rate. The problem of the discount rate manipulating is connected with the category “country risk”, which often determines the impact on the rate and, accordingly, the investment decisions. Critically examines existing approaches to the definition of “country risk”. Categories that make up a complete picture of “country risk” are distinguished. The general defect of existing country risk concepts is revealed – the fact that the measurements are based on rather subjective assessments and do not have sufficient empirical evidence, the fact that almost all of them have a clear liberal democratic bias: as a rule, drawing attention to the relationship between the political system and stability, the liberal democratic structure of society is recognized as the most stable, without any acceptable scientific evidence, followed by autocracy, military dictatorships and new independent states. The author affirms the lack of a clear and unambiguous definition of this category, the controversial approach to ranking of countries. The author analyzes and proves the bias of rating assigned by foreign companies. As a conclusion the need to create a national research concept of the “country risk” category is аffirms with the subsequent promotion of national rating agencies to the world market. The author's conception of the category “country risk” is proposed, an author's definition is given to this notion, it is recommended to establish the primacy of national ratings over foreign ones both in domestic and international relations in order to have independent influence on international capital flows. It is also proposed the evaluation of projects based on the dynamic discounting rates, especially for long-term strategic projects.

  8. Uncertainty in relative cost investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.; Viahos, K.

    1989-01-01

    One of the consequences of the privatization of the Central Electricity Generating Board has been a weakening of the economic case for nuclear generation over coal. Nuclear has higher capital, but lower operating costs than coal and is therefore favoured in capital budgeting by discounting at lower rates of return. In the Sizewell case (in 1987), discounting at the public sector rate of 5 per cent favoured nuclear. However, the private sector will require higher rates of return, thus rendering nuclear less attractive. Hence the imposition by the government of a diversity constraint on the privatized industry to ensure that contracts are made for a minimum fraction of non-fossil (essentially nuclear) energy. An electricity capacity planning model was developed to estimate the costs of imposing various non-fossil energy constraints on the planning decision of a privatized electricity supply industry, as a function of various discount rates. Using a large-scale linear programming technique, the model optimizes over a 50 year horizon the schedule of installation, and mix of generating capacity, both with and without a minimum non-fossil constraint. The conclusion is that the opportunity cost of diversity may be a complex joint substation of more than one type of plant (eg coal and gas) depending on the discount rate. (author)

  9. Usability testing for the rest of us: the application of discount usability principles in the development of an online communications assessment application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, Douglas; Kim, Sara; Palmer, Odawni; Gallagher, Thomas; Holmboe, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Usability evaluation provides developers and educators with the means to understand user needs, improve overall product utility, and increase user satisfaction. The application of "discount usability" principles developed to make usability testing more practical and useful may improve user experience at minimal cost and require little existing expertise to conduct. We describe an application of discount usability to a high-fidelity online communications assessment application developed by the University of Washington for the American Board of Internal Medicine. Eight internal medicine physicians completed a discount usability test. Sessions were recorded and the videos analyzed for significant usability concerns. Concerns were identified, summarized, discussed, and prioritized by the authors in collaboration with the software developers before implementing any changes to the interface. Thirty-eight significant usability issues were detected and four technical problems were identified. Each issue was responded to through modification of the software, by providing additional instruction, or delayed for a later version to be developed. Discount usability can be easily implemented in academic developmental activities. Our study resulted in the discovery and remediation of significant user problems, in addition to giving important insight into the novel methods built into the application.

  10. The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Krüger, Philipp; Landier, Augustin; Thesmar, David

    2011-01-01

    We document investment distortions induced by the use of a single discount rate within firms. According to textbook capital budgeting, firms should value any project using a discount rate determined by the risk characteristics of the project. If they use a unique company-wide discount rate, they overinvest (resp. underinvest) in divisions with a market beta higher (resp. lower) than the firm's core industry beta. We directly test this consequence of the WACC fallacy and establish a robust and...

  11. The vanishing discount problem and viscosity Mather measures. Part 2: boundary value problems

    OpenAIRE

    Ishii, Hitoshi; Mitake, Hiroyoshi; Tran, Hung V.

    2016-01-01

    In arXiv:1603.01051 (Part 1 of this series), we have introduced a variational approach to studying the vanishing discount problem for fully nonlinear, degenerate elliptic, partial differential equations in a torus. We develop this approach further here to handle boundary value problems. In particular, we establish new representation formulas for solutions of discount problems, critical values, and use them to prove convergence results for the vanishing discount problems.

  12. Integrating discount usability in scrum development process in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teka, Degif; Dittrich, Y.; Kifle, Mesfin

    2017-01-01

    be adapted and integrated into the Scrum-agile development with especial emphasis on the Ethiopian context. The research aims at adapting software engineering and ICT development methods to the specific situation and integrating user-centered design (UCD) and lightweight usability methods into agile...... end users and developers. Culturally adapted user pair testing and heuristic evaluation supported usability testing and supported developers in getting early feedback. Integrated approach of discount usability with the Scrum process has been developed and evaluated first with the involved...

  13. Does temporal discounting explain unhealthy behavior? A systematic review and reinforcement learning perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Story, Giles W.; Vlaev, Ivo; Seymour, Ben; Darzi, Ara; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2014-01-01

    The tendency to make unhealthy choices is hypothesized to be related to an individual's temporal discount rate, the theoretical rate at which they devalue delayed rewards. Furthermore, a particular form of temporal discounting, hyperbolic discounting, has been proposed to explain why unhealthy behavior can occur despite healthy intentions. We examine these two hypotheses in turn. We first systematically review studies which investigate whether discount rates can predict unhealthy behavior. These studies reveal that high discount rates for money (and in some instances food or drug rewards) are associated with several unhealthy behaviors and markers of health status, establishing discounting as a promising predictive measure. We secondly examine whether intention-incongruent unhealthy actions are consistent with hyperbolic discounting. We conclude that intention-incongruent actions are often triggered by environmental cues or changes in motivational state, whose effects are not parameterized by hyperbolic discounting. We propose a framework for understanding these state-based effects in terms of the interplay of two distinct reinforcement learning mechanisms: a “model-based” (or goal-directed) system and a “model-free” (or habitual) system. Under this framework, while discounting of delayed health may contribute to the initiation of unhealthy behavior, with repetition, many unhealthy behaviors become habitual; if health goals then change, habitual behavior can still arise in response to environmental cues. We propose that the burgeoning development of computational models of these processes will permit further identification of health decision-making phenotypes. PMID:24659960

  14. Delay discounting of oral morphine and sweetened juice rewards in dependent and non-dependent rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey-Lewis, Colin; Perdrizet, Johnna; Franklin, Keith B J

    2014-07-01

    Opioid-dependent humans are reported to show accelerated delay discounting of opioid rewards when compared to monetary rewards. It has been suggested that this may reflect a difference in discounting of consumable and non-consumable goods not specific to dependent individuals. Here, we evaluate the discounting of similar morphine and non-morphine oral rewards in dependent and non-dependent rats We first tested the analgesic and rewarding effects of our morphine solution. In a second experiment, we assigned rats randomly to either dependent or non-dependent groups that, 30 min after daily testing, received 30 mg/kg subcutaneous dose of morphine, or saline, respectively. Delay discounting of drug-free reward was examined prior to initiation of the dosing regimen. We tested discounting of the morphine reward in half the rats and retested the discounting of the drug-free reward in the other half. All tests were run 22.5 h after the daily maintenance dose. Rats preferred the morphine cocktail to the drug-free solution and consumed enough to induce significant analgesia. The control quinine solution did not produce these effects. Dependent rats discounted morphine rewards more rapidly than before dependence and when compared to discounting drug-free rewards. In non-dependent rats both reward types were discounted similarly. These results show that morphine dependence increases impulsiveness specifically towards a drug reward while morphine experience without dependence does not.

  15. Delay discounting of food by rhesus monkeys: Cocaine and food choice in isomorphic and allomorphic situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huskinson, Sally L; Woolverton, William L; Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Freeman, Kevin B

    2015-06-01

    Research on delay discounting has focused largely on nondrug reinforcers in an isomorphic context in which choice is between alternatives that involve the same type of reinforcer. Less often, delay discounting has been studied with drug reinforcers in a more ecologically valid allomorphic context where choice is between alternatives involving different types of reinforcers. The present experiment is the first to examine discounting of drug and nondrug reinforcers in both isomorphic and allomorphic situations using a theoretical model (i.e., the hyperbolic discounting function) that allows for comparisons of discounting rates between reinforcer types and amounts. The goal of the current experiment was to examine discounting of a delayed, nondrug reinforcer (food) by male rhesus monkeys when the immediate alternative was either food (isomorphic situation) or cocaine (allomorphic situation). In addition, we sought to determine whether there was a magnitude effect with delayed food in the allomorphic situation. Choice of immediate food and immediate cocaine increased with amount and dose, respectively. Choice functions for immediate food and cocaine generally shifted leftward as delay increased. Compared to isomorphic situations in which food was the immediate alternative, delayed food was discounted more steeply in allomorphic situations where cocaine was the immediate alternative. Notably, discounting was not affected by the magnitude of the delayed reinforcer. These data indicate that how steeply a delayed nondrug reinforcer is discounted may depend more on the qualitative characteristics of the immediate reinforcer and less on the magnitude of the delayed one. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. A discount strategy in word-of-mouth marketing and its assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Tianrui; Yang, Xiaofan; Yang, Lu-Xing; Tang, Yuan Yan; Wu, Yingbo

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses the discount pricing in word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing. A new discount strategy known as the Infection-Based Discount (IBD) strategy is proposed. The basic idea of the IBD strategy lies in that each customer enjoys a discount that is linearly proportional to his/her influence in the WOM network. To evaluate the performance of the IBD strategy, the WOM spreading process is modeled as a dynamic model known as the DPA model, and the performance of the IBD strategy is modeled ...

  17. Changing delay discounting in the light of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Jarmolowicz, David P; Mueller, E Terry; Bickel, Warren K

    2013-01-01

    Excessively devaluing delayed reinforcers co-occurs with a wide variety of clinical conditions such as drug dependence, obesity, and excessive gambling. If excessive delay discounting is a trans-disease process that underlies the choice behavior leading to these and other negative health conditions, efforts to change an individual's discount rate are arguably important. Although discount rate is often regarded as a relatively stable trait, descriptions of interventions and environmental manipulations that successfully alter discount rate have begun to appear in the literature. In this review, we compare published examples of procedures that change discount rate and classify them into categories of procedures, including therapeutic interventions, direct manipulation of the executive decision-making system, framing effects, physiological state effects, and acute drug effects. These changes in discount rate are interpreted from the perspective of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory, which describes a combination of neurological and behavioral processes that account for delay discounting. We also suggest future directions that researchers could take to identify the mechanistic processes that allow for changes in discount rate and to test whether the competing neurobehavioral decision systems view of delay discounting is correct. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  18. Long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions in patients with COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogendoorn, Martine; Feenstra, Talitha L; Hoogenveen, Rudolf T; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H

    2010-08-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the long-term (cost-) effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A systematic review was performed of randomised controlled trials on smoking cessation interventions in patients with COPD reporting 12-month biochemical validated abstinence rates. The different interventions were grouped into four categories: usual care, minimal counselling, intensive counselling and intensive counselling + pharmacotherapy ('pharmacotherapy'). For each category the average 12-month continuous abstinence rate and intervention costs were estimated. A dynamic population model for COPD was used to project the long-term (cost-) effectiveness (25 years) of 1-year implementation of the interventions for 50% of the patients with COPD who smoked compared with usual care. Uncertainty and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed for variations in the calculation of the abstinence rates, the type of projection, intervention costs and discount rates. Nine studies were selected. The average 12-month continuous abstinence rates were estimated to be 1.4% for usual care, 2.6% for minimal counselling, 6.0% for intensive counselling and 12.3% for pharmacotherapy. Compared with usual care, the costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for minimal counselling, intensive counselling and pharmacotherapy were euro 16 900, euro 8200 and euro 2400, respectively. The results were most sensitive to variations in the estimation of the abstinence rates and discount rates. Compared with usual care, intensive counselling and pharmacotherapy resulted in low costs per QALY gained with ratios comparable to results for smoking cessation in the general population. Compared with intensive counselling, pharmacotherapy was cost saving and dominated the other interventions.

  19. What makes a reach movement effortful? Physical effort discounting supports common minimization principles in decision making and motor control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Morel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available When deciding between alternative options, a rational agent chooses on the basis of the desirability of each outcome, including associated costs. As different options typically result in different actions, the effort associated with each action is an essential cost parameter. How do humans discount physical effort when deciding between movements? We used an action-selection task to characterize how subjective effort depends on the parameters of arm transport movements and controlled for potential confounding factors such as delay discounting and performance. First, by repeatedly asking subjects to choose between 2 arm movements of different amplitudes or durations, performed against different levels of force, we identified parameter combinations that subjects experienced as identical in effort (isoeffort curves. Movements with a long duration were judged more effortful than short-duration movements against the same force, while movement amplitudes did not influence effort. Biomechanics of the movements also affected effort, as movements towards the body midline were preferred to movements away from it. Second, by introducing movement repetitions, we further determined that the cost function for choosing between effortful movements had a quadratic relationship with force, while choices were made on the basis of the logarithm of these costs. Our results show that effort-based action selection during reaching cannot easily be explained by metabolic costs. Instead, force-loaded reaches, a widely occurring natural behavior, imposed an effort cost for decision making similar to cost functions in motor control. Our results thereby support the idea that motor control and economic choice are governed by partly overlapping optimization principles.

  20. Feasibility and Costs of Natural Gas as a Bridge to Deep Decarbonization in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; McJeon, H. C.; Muratori, M.; Shi, W.

    2015-12-01

    Achieving emissions reductions consistent with a 2 degree Celsius global warming target requires nearly complete replacement of traditional fossil fuel combustion with near-zero carbon energy technologies in the United States by 2050. There are multiple technological change pathways consistent with this deep decarbonization, including strategies that rely on renewable energy, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The replacement of coal-fired power plants with natural gas-fired power plants has also been suggested as a bridge strategy to achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. These gas plants, however, would need to be replaced by near-zero energy technologies or retrofitted with CCS by 2050 in order to achieve longer-term targets. Here we examine the costs and feasibility of a natural gas bridge strategy. Using the Global Change Assessment (GCAM) model, we develop multiple scenarios that each meet the recent US Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to reduce GHG emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 levels in 2025, as well as a deep decarbonization target of 80% emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2050. We find that the gas bridge strategy requires that gas plants be retired on average 20 years earlier than their designed lifetime of 45 years, a potentially challenging outcome to achieve from a policy perspective. Using a more idealized model, we examine the net energy system costs of this gas bridge strategy compared to one in which near-zero energy technologies are deployed in the near tem. We explore the sensitivity of these cost results to four factors: the discount rate applied to future costs, the length (or start year) of the gas bridge, the relative capital cost of natural gas vs. near-zero energy technology, and the fuel price of natural gas. The discount rate and cost factors are found to be more important than the length of the bridge. However, we find an important interaction as well. At low discount rates

  1. Beyond discounting: possible experimental models of impulse control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monterosso, J; Ainslie, G

    1999-10-01

    Animal studies of impulsivity have typically used one of three models: a delay of reward procedure, a differential reinforcement for low rate responding (DRL) procedure, or an autoshaping procedure. In each of these paradigms, we argue, measurement of impulsivity is implicitly or explicitly equated with the effect delay has on the value of reward. The steepness by which delay diminishes value (the temporal discount function) is treated as an index of impulsivity. In order to provide a better analog of human impulsivity, this model needs to be expanded to include the converse of impulsivity - self-control. Through mechanisms such as committing to long range interests before the onset of temptation, or through bundling individual choices into classes of choices that are made at once, human decision-making can often look far less myopic than single trial experiments predict. For people, impulsive behavior may be more often the result of the breakdown of self-control mechanisms than of steep discount functions. Existing animal models of self-control are discussed, and future directions are suggested for psychopharmacological research.

  2. Personality influences temporal discounting preferences: behavioral and brain evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Joshua; Hedden, Trey; Wickens, Nina; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Prelec, Drazen; Gabrieli, John D E

    2014-09-01

    Personality traits are stable predictors of many life outcomes that are associated with important decisions that involve tradeoffs over time. Therefore, a fundamental question is how tradeoffs over time vary from person to person in relation to stable personality traits. We investigated the influence of personality, as measured by the Five-Factor Model, on time preferences and on neural activity engaged by intertemporal choice. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants made choices between smaller-sooner and larger-later monetary rewards. For each participant, we estimated a constant-sensitivity discount function that dissociates impatience (devaluation of future consequences) from time sensitivity (consistency with rational, exponential discounting). Overall, higher neuroticism was associated with a relatively greater preference for immediate rewards and higher conscientiousness with a relatively greater preference for delayed rewards. Specifically, higher conscientiousness correlated positively with lower short-term impatience and more exponential time preferences, whereas higher neuroticism (lower emotional stability) correlated positively with higher short-term impatience and less exponential time preferences. Cognitive-control and reward brain regions were more activated when higher conscientiousness participants selected a smaller-sooner reward and, conversely, when higher neuroticism participants selected a larger-later reward. The greater activations that occurred when choosing rewards that contradicted personality predispositions may reflect the greater recruitment of mental resources needed to override those predispositions. These findings reveal that stable personality traits fundamentally influence how rewards are chosen over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Energy costs form European wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milborrow, D [Windpower Monthly, Knebel (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    Energy generation costs from European wind farms span a very wide range. Reasons for these variations, include differences in capital and operating costs, wind speeds and differing legislative and regulatory frameworks. This article compares costs, wind speeds and discount rates for British and German windfarms and sets these alongside data from elsewhere in the European Union. In this way it is possible to determine the reasons for differences in energy generation costs. (author)

  4. Energy costs form European wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milborrow, D. [Windpower Monthly, Knebel (Denmark)

    1995-12-31

    Energy generation costs from European wind farms span a very wide range. Reasons for these variations, include differences in capital and operating costs, wind speeds and differing legislative and regulatory frameworks. This article compares costs, wind speeds and discount rates for British and German windfarms and sets these alongside data from elsewhere in the European Union. In this way it is possible to determine the reasons for differences in energy generation costs. (author)

  5. Energy costs form European wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milborrow, D.

    1995-01-01

    Energy generation costs from European wind farms span a very wide range. Reasons for these variations, include differences in capital and operating costs, wind speeds and differing legislative and regulatory frameworks. This article compares costs, wind speeds and discount rates for British and German windfarms and sets these alongside data from elsewhere in the European Union. In this way it is possible to determine the reasons for differences in energy generation costs. (author)

  6. Temporal discounting across three psychiatric disorders: Anorexia nervosa, obsessive compulsive disorder, and social anxiety disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinglass, Joanna E.; Lempert, Karolina M.; Choo, Tse-Hwei; Kimeldorf, Marcia B.; Wall, Melanie; Walsh, B. Timothy; Fyer, Abby J.; Schneier, Franklin R.; Simpson, H. Blair

    2018-01-01

    Background Temporal discounting refers to the tendency for rewards to lose value as the expected delay to receipt increases. Individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) have been found to show reduced temporal discounting rates, indicating a greater preference for delayed rewards compared to healthy peers. Obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) and social anxiety disorder (SAD) commonly co-occur with AN, and anxiety has been related to development and prognosis of AN. We examined whether reduced temporal discounting is present across these potentially related disorders, and explored the relationship between temporal discounting and anxiety trans-diagnostically. Methods One hundred ninety six individuals (75 healthy controls (HC); 50 OCD; 27 AN; 44 SAD) completed two temporal discounting tasks in which they chose between smaller-sooner and larger-later monetary rewards. Two measures of discounting—discount rate and discount factor—were compared between diagnostic groups, and associations with anxious traits were examined. Results Individuals with AN showed decreased temporal discounting compared to HC. OCD and SAD groups did not differ significantly from HC. Across the sample, anxiety was associated with decreased discounting; more anxious individuals showed a greater preference for delayed reward. Conclusions We replicated the findings that individuals with AN show an increased preference for delayed reward relative to HC and that individuals with OCD do not differ from HC. We also showed that individuals with SAD do not differ from HC in discounting. Across this large sample, two measures of anxious temperament were associated with temporal discounting. These data raise new questions about the relationship between this dimensional trait and psychopathology. PMID:28009473

  7. Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew W; Johnson, Patrick S; Herrmann, Evan S; Sweeney, Mary M

    2015-01-01

    Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability

  8. Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W Johnson

    Full Text Available Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23 and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24 were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task, delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task, and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and

  9. Delay Discounting of Losses in Alcohol Use Disorders and Antisocial Psychopathology: Effects of a Working Memory Load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerst, Kyle R; Gunn, Rachel L; Finn, Peter R

    2017-10-01

    Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are associated with increased discounting of delayed rewards and reduced executive working memory (eWM) capacity. This association is amplified when comorbid with antisocial psychopathology (AP). Furthermore, recent studies suggest that reduced WM capacity is associated with disinhibited decisions reflected by increased impulsive decision making on the delay discounting of rewards task. While discounting of delayed rewards is well studied, the discounting of delayed losses has received significantly less experimental attention. The current study investigated (i) the rate of discounting of delayed losses in individuals with AUD only (n = 61), AUD with comorbid AP (n = 79) and healthy controls (n = 64); (ii) the relationship between eWM capacity and discounting of delayed losses; and (iii) the effect of a WM load on discounting of delayed losses. Discounting performance was assessed using a computerized discounting of delayed losses task. Results showed that the AUD-only and AUD-AP groups had higher rates of discounting of delayed losses and lower eWM capacity compared to the control groups. Lower individual eWM capacity was associated with increased discounting of delayed losses. However, WM load did not increase discounting rates overall. These results support the hypothesis that greater discounting of delayed losses is associated with AUD and comorbid AP problems and lower individual eWM capacity. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of carfilzomib plus dexamethasone compared with bortezomib plus dexamethasone for patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakubowiak, Andrzej J; Houisse, Ivan; Májer, István; Benedict, Ágnes; Campioni, Marco; Panjabi, Sumeet; Ailawadhi, Sikander

    2017-12-01

    We assessed the economic value of carfilzomib 56 mg/m 2 and dexamethasone (Kd56) vs. bortezomib and dexamethasone (Vd) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (R/RMM) using ENDEAVOR trial results. Cost-effectiveness of Kd56 vs. Vd was assessed using a partitioned survival model by estimating progression-free survival, overall survival, and direct costs over a lifetime horizon. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) survival data were extrapolated after matching registry and ENDEAVOR patients. Utilities were sourced from the literature and mapped from patient-reported quality of life in ENDEAVOR to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from life-years (LYs). The model predicted an average gain of 1.66 LYs and 1.50 QALYs with Kd56 vs. Vd, and lifetime additional costs of $182,699, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $121,828/QALY gained. The ICER was $114,793/QALY in patients with 1 prior treatment; $99,263/QALY in those not transplanted, and discount in bortezomib price. Kd56 is cost-effective for patients with R/RMM at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Trial data in the model may limit generalizability; however, SEER registry data mitigates this challenge. Kd56 provides additional value in key subgroups, and remains cost-effective after steep comparator discounts.

  11. A random utility model of delay discounting and its application to people with externalizing psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junyi; Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Finn, Peter R

    2016-10-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach. First, the deterministic perspective on delay discounting underlying the indifference point method might be inappropriate. Second, the estimation procedure using the R2 measure often leads to poor model fit. Third, when parameters are estimated using indifference points only, much of the information collected in a delay discounting decision task is wasted. To overcome these problems, this article proposes a random utility model of delay discounting. The proposed model has 2 parameters, 1 for delay discounting and 1 for choice variability. It was fit to choice data obtained from a recently published data set using both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian parameter estimation. As in previous studies, the delay discounting parameter was significantly associated with both externalizing problems and working memory capacity. Furthermore, choice variability was also found to be significantly associated with both variables. This finding suggests that randomness in decisions may be a mechanism by which externalizing problems and low working memory capacity are associated with poor decision making. The random utility model thus has the advantage of disclosing the role of choice variability, which had been masked by the traditional deterministic model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. The meanings of discounts in contemporary art markets: the case of India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Komarova, N.

    2015-01-01

    Although discounts in art markets are commonplace, the phenomenon remains largely unresearched. This paper looks at how art market actors understand the functions of discounts, focusing on ‘suppliers’ of the market and drawing on qualitative interviews with artists and art dealers from New Delhi and

  13. Beyond the Shadow of a Trait: Understanding Discounting through Item-Level Analysis of Personality Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Shawn R.; Gossett, Bradley D.; Charlton, Veda A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporal discounting, the loss in perceived value associated with delayed outcomes, correlates with a number of personality measures, suggesting that an item-level analysis of trait measures might provide a more detailed understanding of discounting. The current report details two studies that investigate the utility of such an item-level…

  14. When Discounts Hurt Sales: The Case of Daily-Deal Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Cao (Zike); K.L. Hui (Kai-Lung); Xu, H.

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate whether the discounts offered by online daily deals help attract consumer purchases. By tracking the sales of 19,978 deals on Groupon.com and conducting a battery of identification and falsification tests, we find that deep discounts reduce sales. A one-percent increase in

  15. 78 FR 16706 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-18

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  16. 75 FR 8106 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-23

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  17. 75 FR 82066 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-29

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  18. 76 FR 73674 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  19. Does private-label production by national-brand manufacturers create discounter goodwill?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ter Braak, A.M.; Deleersnyder, B.; Geyskens, I.; Dekimpe, M.G.

    2013-01-01

    Discount stores have a private-label dominated assortment where national brands have only limited shelf access. These limited spots are in high demand by national-brand manufacturers. We examine whether private-label production by leading national-brand manufacturers for two important discounters

  20. Changing Delay Discounting in the Light of the Competing Neurobehavioral Decision Systems Theory: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; Jarmolowicz, David P.; Mueller, E. Terry; Bickel, Warren K.

    2013-01-01

    Excessively devaluing delayed reinforcers co-occurs with a wide variety of clinical conditions such as drug dependence, obesity, and excessive gambling. If excessive delay discounting is a trans-disease process that underlies the choice behavior leading to these and other negative health conditions, efforts to change an individual's discount rate…

  1. The consumption discount rate for the distant future (if we do not die out)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeylen, K.

    2013-01-01

    Gollier and Weitzman (2010) show that if future consumption discount rates are uncertain and persistent, the consumption discount rate should decline to its lowest possible value for events in the most distant future. In this paper, I argue that the lowest possible growth rate of consumption per

  2. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing:A Robustness Check of the Bilateral Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a robustness check of the stochastic discount factor approach to international (bilateral) risk-sharing given in Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006). We demonstrate two main inherent limitations of the bilateral SDF approach to international risk-sharing. First, the discount

  3. Neural congruence between intertemporal and interpersonal self-control: Evidence from delay and social discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Paul F; Yi, Richard; Spreng, R Nathan; Diana, Rachel A

    2017-11-15

    Behavioral studies using delay and social discounting as indices of self-control and altruism, respectively, have revealed functional similarities between farsighted and social decisions. However, neural evidence for this functional link is lacking. Twenty-five young adults completed a delay and social discounting task during fMRI scanning. A spatiotemporal partial least squares analysis revealed that both forms of discounting were well characterized by a pattern of brain activity in areas comprising frontoparietal control, default, and mesolimbic reward networks. Both forms of discounting appear to draw on common neurocognitive mechanisms, regardless of whether choices involve intertemporal or interpersonal outcomes. We also observed neural profiles differentiating between high and low discounters. High discounters were well characterized by increased medial temporal lobe and limbic activity. In contrast, low discount rates were associated with activity in the medial prefrontal cortex and right temporoparietal junction. This pattern may reflect biological mechanisms underlying behavioral heterogeneity in discount rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Discounting of Delayed Food Rewards in Pigeons and Rats: Is There a Magnitude Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Holt, Daniel D.; Slavin, John R.; Estle, Sara J.

    2004-01-01

    Temporal discounting refers to the decrease in the present, subjective value of a reward as the time to its receipt increases. Results from humans have shown that a hyperbola-like function describes the form of the discounting function when choices involve hypothetical monetary rewards. In addition, magnitude effects have been reported in which…

  5. Temporal discounting in life cycle assessment: A critical review and theoretical framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Chris; Wang, Endong; Zhai, Qiang; Yang, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Temporal homogeneity of inventory data is one of the major problems in life cycle assessment (LCA). Addressing temporal homogeneity of life cycle inventory data is important in reducing the uncertainties and improving the reliability of LCA results. This paper attempts to present a critical review and discussion on the fundamental issues of temporal homogeneity in conventional LCA and propose a theoretical framework for temporal discounting in LCA. Theoretical perspectives for temporal discounting in life cycle inventory analysis are discussed first based on the key elements of a scientific mechanism for temporal discounting. Then generic procedures for performing temporal discounting in LCA is derived and proposed based on the nature of the LCA method and the identified key elements of a scientific temporal discounting method. A five-step framework is proposed and reported in details based on the technical methods and procedures needed to perform a temporal discounting in life cycle inventory analysis. Challenges and possible solutions are also identified and discussed for the technical procedure and scientific accomplishment of each step within the framework. - Highlights: • A critical review for temporal homogeneity problem of life cycle inventory data • A theoretical framework for performing temporal discounting on inventory data • Methods provided to accomplish each step of the temporal discounting framework

  6. Cost-effectiveness of school support for orphan girls to prevent HIV infection in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ted; Hallfors, Denise; Cho, Hyunsan; Luseno, Winnie; Waehrer, Geetha

    2013-10-01

    This cost-effectiveness study analyzes the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in a randomized controlled trial that tested school support as a structural intervention to prevent HIV risk factors among Zimbabwe orphan girl adolescents. The intervention significantly reduced early marriage, increased years of schooling completed, and increased health-related quality of life. By reducing early marriage, the literature suggests the intervention reduced HIV infection. The intervention yielded an estimated US$1,472 in societal benefits and an estimated gain of 0.36 QALYs per orphan supported. It cost an estimated US$6/QALY gained, about 1 % of annual per capita income in Zimbabwe. That is well below the maximum price that the World Health Organization (WHO) Commission on Macroeconomics and Health recommends paying for health gains in low and middle income countries. About half the girls in the intervention condition were boarded when they reached high school. For non-boarders, the intervention's financial benefits exceeded its costs, yielding an estimated net cost savings of $502 per pupil. Without boarding, the intervention would yield net savings even if it were 34 % less effective in replication. Boarding was not cost-effective. It cost an additional $1,234 per girl boarded (over the 3 years of the study, discounted to present value at a 3 % discount rate) but had no effect on any of the outcome measures relative to girls in the treatment group who did not board. For girls who did not board, the average cost of approximately 3 years of school support was US$973.

  7. The difference between alternative averages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Vaupel

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Demographers have long been interested in how compositional change, e.g., change in age structure, affects population averages. OBJECTIVE We want to deepen understanding of how compositional change affects population averages. RESULTS The difference between two averages of a variable, calculated using alternative weighting functions, equals the covariance between the variable and the ratio of the weighting functions, divided by the average of the ratio. We compare weighted and unweighted averages and also provide examples of use of the relationship in analyses of fertility and mortality. COMMENTS Other uses of covariances in formal demography are worth exploring.

  8. The cost function for the preventive - maintenance replacement problem

    OpenAIRE

    Vilaplana, Jose Perez

    1994-01-01

    Let a discounted continuous review preventive-maintenance replacement model be such that its total discounted cost is given by means of two functional equations. We assume that downtime is caused by equipment breakdowns, and the length of a given downtime is the time necessary to repair the equipment and set it back in operation. The periodic preventive replacement policy is to replace the equipment by a new identical equipment when service age X is reached, or when the equipment ...

  9. Direct costs of managing adverse drug reactions during rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis treatment in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnippel, K; Firnhaber, C; Berhanu, R; Page-Shipp, L; Sinanovic, E

    2018-04-01

    To estimate the provider costs of managing adverse drug reactions (ADRs) to standard long-course treatment for multidrug- and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) according to South African guidelines. We parameterised a published Markov health state model for MDR/RR-TB with guidelines-based, bottom-up public-sector provider costing of ADR management. Frequency of ADR occurrence was extracted from the literature. Costs were estimated over 10 years, discounted 3% annually and tested using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. On average, guidelines-based costing of moderate ADRs weighted by the frequency of occurrence was US$135.76 (standard deviation [SD] US$17.18) and the cost of serious ADRs was US$521.29 (SD US$55.99). We estimated that the incremental costs of ADR management were US$380.17 annually per patient initiating MDR/RR-TB treatment. The incremental costs of ADR management for the public health sector in South Africa was US$4.76 million, 8.3% of the estimated cohort costs of MDR/RR-TB treatment ($57.55 million) for the 2015 cohort of 12 527 patients. Management of multiple ADRs and serious ADRs, which are common during the first 6 months of standard, long-course MDR/RR-TB treatment, substantially increases provider treatment costs. These results need to be taken into account when comparing regimen costs, and highlight the urgent need to identify drug regimens with improved safety profiles.

  10. Optimal conservation resource allocation under variable economic and ecological time discounting rates in boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Pouzols, Federico Montesino; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Kotiaho, Janne S; Strandman, Harri; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-09-15

    Resource allocation to multiple alternative conservation actions is a complex task. A common trade-off occurs between protection of smaller, expensive, high-quality areas versus larger, cheaper, partially degraded areas. We investigate optimal allocation into three actions in boreal forest: current standard forest management rules, setting aside of mature stands, or setting aside of clear-cuts. We first estimated how habitat availability for focal indicator species and economic returns from timber harvesting develop through time as a function of forest type and action chosen. We then developed an optimal resource allocation by accounting for budget size and habitat availability of indicator species in different forest types. We also accounted for the perspective adopted towards sustainability, modeled via temporal preference and economic and ecological time discounting. Controversially, we found that in boreal forest set-aside followed by protection of clear-cuts can become a winning cost-effective strategy when accounting for habitat requirements of multiple species, long planning horizon, and limited budget. It is particularly effective when adopting a long-term sustainability perspective, and accounting for present revenues from timber harvesting. The present analysis assesses the cost-effective conditions to allocate resources into an inexpensive conservation strategy that nevertheless has potential to produce high ecological values in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Breakeven costs for embryo transfer in a commercial dairy herd.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferris, T A; Troyer, B W

    1987-11-01

    Differences in Estimated Breeding Values expressed in dollars were compared by simulation of two, 100-cow, closed herds. One herd practiced normal intensity of female selection. The other herd generated various herd replacements by embryo transfer by varying 1) selection rate of embryo transfer dams and 2) numbers of daughters per dam from which embryos were transferred, while varying the merit of mates of embryo transfer dams. Estimated Breeding Value dollars were compounded each generation and regressed to remove age adjustments and added feed and health costs. Beginning values in both herds included a standard deviation of 55 Cow Index dollars, herd average of -23 Cow Index dollars, and a 120 Predicted Difference dollars for mates of dams not embryo transferred. Average merit of all sires used increased $12 per year. Herd calving rate (.70), proportion females (.5), calf loss (.15), and heifer survival rate (.83) were used. Breakeven cost per embryo transfer cow entering the milking herd was computed by Net Present Value analysis using a 10% discount rate over 10 and 20 yr. Breakeven cost or the maximum expense that would allow a 10% return on the expenditure ranged from $135 to $510 per surviving cow, $24 to $125 per transfer, $47 to $178 per pregnancy, and $81 to $357 per female calf born. As the number of replacements resulting from embryo transfer increased, breakeven cost per embryo transfer cow decreased due to diminishing return.

  12. Social Discounting of Large Dams with Climate Change Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Jeuland

    2010-06-01

    This paper reviews the recent discounting controversy and examines its implications for the appraisal of an illustrative hydropower project in Ethiopia. The analysis uses an integrated hydro-economic model that accounts for how the dam’s transboundary impacts vary with climate change. The real value of the dam is found to be highly sensitive to assumptions about future economic growth. The argument for investment is weakest under conditions of robust global economic growth, particularly if these coincide with unfavourable hydrological or development factors related to the project. If however long-term growth is reduced, the value of the dam tends to increase. There may also be distributional or local arguments favouring investment, if growth in the investment region lags behind that of the rest of the globe. In such circumstances, a large dam can be seen as a form of insurance that protects future vulnerable generations against the possibility of macroeconomic instability or climate shocks.

  13. Accelerated decomposition techniques for large discounted Markov decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larach, Abdelhadi; Chafik, S.; Daoui, C.

    2017-12-01

    Many hierarchical techniques to solve large Markov decision processes (MDPs) are based on the partition of the state space into strongly connected components (SCCs) that can be classified into some levels. In each level, smaller problems named restricted MDPs are solved, and then these partial solutions are combined to obtain the global solution. In this paper, we first propose a novel algorithm, which is a variant of Tarjan's algorithm that simultaneously finds the SCCs and their belonging levels. Second, a new definition of the restricted MDPs is presented to ameliorate some hierarchical solutions in discounted MDPs using value iteration (VI) algorithm based on a list of state-action successors. Finally, a robotic motion-planning example and the experiment results are presented to illustrate the benefit of the proposed decomposition algorithms.

  14. Average-case analysis of numerical problems

    CERN Document Server

    2000-01-01

    The average-case analysis of numerical problems is the counterpart of the more traditional worst-case approach. The analysis of average error and cost leads to new insight on numerical problems as well as to new algorithms. The book provides a survey of results that were mainly obtained during the last 10 years and also contains new results. The problems under consideration include approximation/optimal recovery and numerical integration of univariate and multivariate functions as well as zero-finding and global optimization. Background material, e.g. on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and random fields, is provided.

  15. Temporal discounting rates and their relation to exercise behavior in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tate, Linda M; Tsai, Pao-Feng; Landes, Reid D; Rettiganti, Mallikarjuna; Lefler, Leanne L

    2015-12-01

    As our nation's population ages, the rates of chronic illness and disability are expected to increase significantly. Despite the knowledge that exercise may prevent chronic disease and promote health among older adults, many still are inactive. Factors related to exercise behaviors have been explored in recent years. However, temporal discounting is a motivational concept that has not been explored in regard to exercise in older adults. Temporal discounting is a decision making process by which an individual chooses a smaller more immediate reward over a larger delayed reward. The aim of this study was to determine if temporal discounting rates vary between exercising and non-exercising older adults. This study used cross-sectional survey of 137 older adults living in the community. Older adults were recruited from 11 rural Arkansas churches. The Kirby delay-discounting Monetary Choice Questionnaire was used to collect discounting rates and then bivariate analysis was performed to compare temporal discounting rate between the exercisers and non-exercisers. Finally, multivariate analysis was used to compare discounting rate controlling for other covariates. The results indicated that exercising older adults display lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercising older adults. After controlling for education, exercisers still have lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercisers (phealth conditions relate to lack of exercise especially in older adults. This research suggests that if we can find appropriate incentives for discounting individuals, some type of immediate reward, then potentially we can design programs to engage and retain older adults in exercise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Cost-benefit analysis for invasive species control: the case of greater Canada goose Branta canadensis in Flanders (northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaas Reyns

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Sound decisions on control actions for established invasive alien species (IAS require information on ecological as well as socio-economic impact of the species and of its management. Cost-benefit analysis provides part of this information, yet has received relatively little attention in the scientific literature on IAS. Methods We apply a bio-economic model in a cost-benefit analysis framework to greater Canada goose Branta canadensis, an IAS with documented social, economic and ecological impacts in Flanders (northern Belgium. We compared a business as usual (BAU scenario which involved non-coordinated hunting and egg destruction with an enhanced scenario based on a continuation of these activities but supplemented with coordinated capture of moulting birds. To assess population growth under the BAU scenario we fitted a logistic growth model to the observed pre-moult capture population. Projected damage costs included water eutrophication and damage to cultivated grasslands and were calculated for all scenarios. Management costs of the moult captures were based on a representative average of the actual cost of planning and executing moult captures. Results Comparing the scenarios with different capture rates, different costs for eutrophication and various discount rates, showed avoided damage costs were in the range of 21.15 M€ to 45.82 M€ under the moult capture scenario. The lowest value for the avoided costs applied to the scenario where we lowered the capture rate by 10%. The highest value occurred in the scenario where we lowered the real discount rate from 4% to 2.5%. Discussion The reduction in damage costs always outweighed the additional management costs of moult captures. Therefore, additional coordinated moult captures could be applied to limit the negative economic impact of greater Canada goose at a regional scale. We further discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our approach and its potential application to other

  17. Cost-benefit analysis for invasive species control: the case of greater Canada goose Branta canadensis in Flanders (northern Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casaer, Jim; De Smet, Lieven; Devos, Koen; Huysentruyt, Frank; Robertson, Peter A.; Verbeke, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Background Sound decisions on control actions for established invasive alien species (IAS) require information on ecological as well as socio-economic impact of the species and of its management. Cost-benefit analysis provides part of this information, yet has received relatively little attention in the scientific literature on IAS. Methods We apply a bio-economic model in a cost-benefit analysis framework to greater Canada goose Branta canadensis, an IAS with documented social, economic and ecological impacts in Flanders (northern Belgium). We compared a business as usual (BAU) scenario which involved non-coordinated hunting and egg destruction with an enhanced scenario based on a continuation of these activities but supplemented with coordinated capture of moulting birds. To assess population growth under the BAU scenario we fitted a logistic growth model to the observed pre-moult capture population. Projected damage costs included water eutrophication and damage to cultivated grasslands and were calculated for all scenarios. Management costs of the moult captures were based on a representative average of the actual cost of planning and executing moult captures. Results Comparing the scenarios with different capture rates, different costs for eutrophication and various discount rates, showed avoided damage costs were in the range of 21.15 M€ to 45.82 M€ under the moult capture scenario. The lowest value for the avoided costs applied to the scenario where we lowered the capture rate by 10%. The highest value occurred in the scenario where we lowered the real discount rate from 4% to 2.5%. Discussion The reduction in damage costs always outweighed the additional management costs of moult captures. Therefore, additional coordinated moult captures could be applied to limit the negative economic impact of greater Canada goose at a regional scale. We further discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our approach and its potential application to other IAS. PMID

  18. Passenger vehicles that minimize the costs of ownership and environmental damages in the Indian market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Patwardhan, Anand

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Full costs (private and social) are evaluated for Indian passenger cars. • Diesel has low ownership costs, but higher climate and health damages. • Compressed natural gas cars have lower costs and damages than petrol cars. • Electric cars have higher damages due to electricity generation emissions. • CNG and less carbon intensive electricity minimizes Indian cars’ full cost. - Abstract: Rapid expansion of population and income growth in developing countries, such as India, is increasing the demand for many goods and services, including four-wheeled passenger cars. Passenger cars provide personal mobility; however, they also have negative implications for human wellbeing from increased air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, we evaluate the range of passenger vehicles available in the Indian market to identify options that minimize costs, human health effects and climate damages. Our approach is to compare alternative fuel/powertrain vehicles with similar conventional gasoline fueled vehicles and assess the differences in full (private and societal) costs for each pair. Private costs are the combination of capital costs and the discounted expected future fuel costs over the vehicle lifetime. The costs to human health from air quality are calculated using intake fractions to estimate exposure and literature values for the damage costs adjusted by benefits transfer methods. We use the Social Cost of Carbon to estimate climate damages. We find that, on average, the net present value (NPV) of the full costs of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles are lower than comparable gasoline vehicles, while, diesel vehicles have higher costs. Presently, electric vehicles have higher private costs (due to high capital costs) and societal costs (due to electricity generation emissions). Either a less carbon intensive electricity grid or an increase in the CNG fleet would minimize total costs, human health effects and GHG emissions from the

  19. Discounting of Monetary Rewards That Are Both Delayed and Probabilistic: Delay and Probability Combine Multiplicatively, Not Additively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderveldt, Ariana; Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel

    2015-01-01

    The value of an outcome is affected both by the delay until its receipt (delay discounting) and by the likelihood of its receipt (probability discounting). Despite being well-described by the same hyperboloid function, delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different processes, as revealed, for example, by the differential effects…

  20. Testing the Reliability of Delay Discounting of Ten Commodities Using the Fill-in-the-Blank Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N.; Derenne, Adam; Terrell, Heather K.

    2011-01-01

    Several measures of delay discounting have been shown to be reliable over periods of up to 3 months. In the present study, 115 participants completed a fill-in-the-blank (FITB) delay-discounting task on sets of 5 different commodities, 12 weeks apart. Results showed that discounting rates were not well described by a hyperbolic function but were…

  1. A Job with a Future? Delay Discounting, Magnitude Effects, and Domain Independence of Utility for Career Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfelder, Thomas E.; Hantula, Donald A.

    2003-01-01

    Seniors (n=20) assessed two job offers with differences in domain (salary/tasks), delay (career-long earnings), and magnitude (initial salary offer). Contrary to discounted utility theory, choices reflected nonconstant discount rates for future salary/tasks (delay effect), lower discount rates for salary/preferred tasks (magnitude effect), and a…

  2. Cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening and treatment methods: a systematic review of systematic reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azar, Farbod Ebadifard; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Pournaghi-Azar, Fatemeh; Mazdaki, Alireza; Rezapour, Aziz; Ebrahimi, Parvin; Yousefzadeh, Negar

    2017-06-19

    Due to extensive literature in the field of lung cancer and their heterogeneous results, the aim of this study was to systematically review of systematic reviews studies which reviewed the cost-effectiveness of various lung cancer screening and treatment methods. In this systematic review of systematic reviews study, required data were collected searching the following key words which selected from Mesh: "lung cancer", "lung oncology", "lung Carcinoma", "lung neoplasm", "lung tumors", "cost- effectiveness", "systematic review" and "Meta-analysis". The following databases were searched: PubMed, Cochrane Library electronic databases, Google Scholar, and Scopus. Two reviewers (RA and A-AS) evaluated the articles according to the checklist of "assessment of multiple systematic reviews" (AMSTAR) tool. Overall, information of 110 papers was discussed in eight systematic reviews. Authors focused on cost-effectiveness of lung cancer treatments in five systematic reviews. Targeted therapy options (bevacizumab, Erlotinib and Crizotinib) show an acceptable cost-effectiveness. Results of three studies failed to show cost-effectiveness of screening methods. None of the studies had used the meta-analysis method. The Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) tool and Drummond checklist were mostly used in assessing the quality of articles. Most perspective was related to the Payer (64 times) and the lowest was related to Social (11times). Most cases referred to Incremental analysis (82%) and also the lowest point of referral was related to Discounting (in 49% of the cases). The average quality score of included studies was calculated 9.2% from 11. Targeted therapy can be an option for the treatment of lung cancer. Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of computerized tomographic colonography (CTC) in lung cancer screening is recommended. The perspective of the community should be more taken into consideration in studies of cost-effectiveness. Paying more attention to the topic of

  3. Asynchronous Gossip for Averaging and Spectral Ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkar, Vivek S.; Makhijani, Rahul; Sundaresan, Rajesh

    2014-08-01

    We consider two variants of the classical gossip algorithm. The first variant is a version of asynchronous stochastic approximation. We highlight a fundamental difficulty associated with the classical asynchronous gossip scheme, viz., that it may not converge to a desired average, and suggest an alternative scheme based on reinforcement learning that has guaranteed convergence to the desired average. We then discuss a potential application to a wireless network setting with simultaneous link activation constraints. The second variant is a gossip algorithm for distributed computation of the Perron-Frobenius eigenvector of a nonnegative matrix. While the first variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for an average cost controlled Markov decision problem, the second variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for risk-sensitive control. We then discuss potential applications of the second variant to ranking schemes, reputation networks, and principal component analysis.

  4. Exchanging the liquidity hypothesis: Delay discounting of money and self-relevant non-money rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Tormohlen, Kayla N; Yi, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Evidence that primary rewards (e.g., food and drugs of abuse) are discounted more than money is frequently attributed to money's high degree of liquidity, or exchangeability for many commodities. The present study provides some evidence against this liquidity hypothesis by contrasting delay discounting of monetary rewards (liquid) and non-monetary commodities (non-liquid) that are self-relevant and utility-matched. Ninety-seven (97) undergraduate students initially completed a conventional binary-choice delay discounting of money task. Participants returned one week later and completed a self-relevant commodity delay discounting task. Both conventional hypothesis testing and more-conservative tests of statistical equivalence revealed correspondence in rate of delay discounting of money and self-relevant commodities, and in one magnitude condition, less discounting for the latter. The present results indicate that liquidity of money cannot fully account for the lower rate of delay discounting compared to non-money rewards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Delay or probability discounting in a model of impulsive behavior: effect of alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, J B; Zhang, L; Mitchell, S H; de Wit, H

    1999-01-01

    Little is known about the acute effects of drugs of abuse on impulsivity and self-control. In this study, impulsivity was assessed in humans using a computer task that measured delay and probability discounting. Discounting describes how much the value of a reward (or punisher) is decreased when its occurrence is either delayed or uncertain. Twenty-four healthy adult volunteers ingested a moderate dose of ethanol (0.5 or 0.8 g/kg ethanol: n = 12 at each dose) or placebo before completing the discounting task. In the task the participants were given a series of choices between a small, immediate, certain amount of money and $10 that was either delayed (0, 2, 30, 180, or 365 days) or probabilistic (i.e., certainty of receipt was 1.0, .9, .75, .5, or .25). The point at which each individual was indifferent between the smaller immediate or certain reward and the $10 delayed or probabilistic reward was identified using an adjusting-amount procedure. The results indicated that (a) delay and probability discounting were well described by a hyperbolic function; (b) delay and probability discounting were positively correlated within subjects; (c) delay and probability discounting were moderately correlated with personality measures of impulsivity; and (d) alcohol had no effect on discounting. PMID:10220927

  6. Trading Later Rewards for Current Pleasure: Pornography Consumption and Delay Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negash, Sesen; Sheppard, Nicole Van Ness; Lambert, Nathaniel M; Fincham, Frank D

    2016-01-01

    Internet pornography is a multi-billion-dollar industry that has grown increasingly accessible. Delay discounting involves devaluing larger, later rewards in favor of smaller, more immediate rewards. The constant novelty and primacy of sexual stimuli as particularly strong natural rewards make Internet pornography a unique activator of the brain's reward system, thereby having implications for decision-making processes. Based on theoretical studies of evolutionary psychology and neuroeconomics, two studies tested the hypothesis that consuming Internet pornography would relate to higher rates of delay discounting. Study 1 used a longitudinal design. Participants completed a pornography use questionnaire and a delay discounting task at Time 1 and then again four weeks later. Participants reporting higher initial pornography use demonstrated a higher delay discounting rate at Time 2, controlling for initial delay discounting. Study 2 tested for causality with an experimental design. Participants were randomly assigned to abstain from either their favorite food or pornography for three weeks. Participants who abstained from pornography use demonstrated lower delay discounting than participants who abstained from their favorite food. The finding suggests that Internet pornography is a sexual reward that contributes to delay discounting differently than other natural rewards. Theoretical and clinical implications of these studies are highlighted.

  7. Low Discounting Behavior among Small-Scale Fishers in Fiji and Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise S. L. Teh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the socio-economic factors that are associated with fishers’ willingness to delay gratification may be useful for designing appropriate fisheries management and conservation policies. We aim to identify the predictors of low discounting behaviour among fishers, which is analogous to having a longer-term outlook. We base our empirical study on two small-scale tropical reef fisheries in Sabah, Malaysia, and Fiji. We use an experimental approach to identify fishers with low discount rates, and then use a logistic regression model to identify predictors of low discount rates. We find that 42% of the respondents have low discount rates, and that site and village level variables are significant predictors of low discount rates. Within Sabah and Fiji, boat ownership and relative catch differentiate low discounting from non-low discounting fishers, but these variables have contradictory effects in Sabah and Fiji. Overall, our results imply that a substantial proportion of reef fishers may be willing to engage in conservation initiatives; however, local socio-cultural, economic, and ecological conditions have to be considered first during the process of designing management interventions.

  8. Future Discounting in Congo Basin Hunter-Gatherers Declines with Socio-Economic Transitions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gul Deniz Salali

    Full Text Available Humans have a tendency to discount the future; that is we value small, short-term rewards over larger, long-term rewards. The degree of future discounting, however, changes in response to socio-ecological factors. Here, we study Mbendjele BaYaka hunter-gatherers of northern Congo and their farmer neighbours to investigate adaptations in inter-temporal preferences in humans. We argue that in immediate-return systems, where food storage is absent and egalitarianism is enforced through levelling mechanisms, future discounting is an adaptive strategy to prevent wealth accumulation and the emergence of hierarchies. This ensures food sharing and allows for survival in unpredictable environments where there is risk of an energy shortfall. On the other hand, when food storage is made possible by the emergence of agriculture or as seen in some delayed-return hunter-gatherer populations, wealth accumulation, hierarchies and lower discount rates become the adaptive strategy. Therefore, individuals in immediate-return, egalitarian societies will discount the future more than those in non-egalitarian, delayed-return societies. Consistent with the predictions we found that market integration and socio-economic transitions decrease the future discounting in Mbendjele hunter-gatherers. Our measures of socio-economic differences marked this transition in hunter-gatherers living in a logging town. The degree of future-discounting was the same between more market-integrated hunter-gatherers and their farmer neighbours.

  9. The effect of natural scenes on temporal and probability discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2015-09-01

    Results: There was no significant difference in delay discounting between groups F(1,172 = .613, p = .607. Males discounted significantly less than females on temporal and probability discounting tasks F(1,300 = 6.795, p = .010; F(1,300 = 9.941, p = .002, respectively. Older individuals delay discount significantly less than younger individuals F(3,300 = 11.826, p < .001. Older individuals had significantly higher positive affect than younger individuals F(3,300 = 7.956, p < .001. Conclusions: The discounting functions obtained were consistent with previous studies. The results for age and gender on discounting contributes to discussion of these matters: While lower levels of impulsivity in older adults is perhaps to be expected, the gender effect obtained here is less easily explained. Contrary to Berry et al. (2014 we found no evidence for any effect of viewing natural scenes on discounting, regardless of their aesthetic properties. While this discrepancy could relate to the differences in methodology employed, it would suggest that the claims for an effect of natural scenes on impulsivity should be treated with caution.

  10. Delay discounting, self-control, and substance use among adult drug court participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Craig G A; Fearnley, Helen; Panagiotopoulos, Barbara; Kemp, Richard I

    2015-08-01

    The current study examined the relationship between two measures of impulsiveness and the odds of substance use among a sample of participants on an Australian drug court (n=80). Participants completed a computer-based delay discounting task, a paper-based delay discounting task, and a questionnaire-based measure of self-control. The delay discounting tasks measured individual differences in the value attributed to distal outcomes, which is one aspect of impulsive behavior that has been found to be over-represented among illicit drug users. The relationship between the measures of impulsiveness and the odds of substance use was assessed by fitting longitudinal panel regression models with adjustment for informative treatment dropout. Consistent with previous research, drug court participants were found to have higher discount rates (i.e. were more impulsive) than a noncriminal population of university students (n=101). Drug court participants also discounted delayed gains more than delayed losses. Delay discounting was not significantly associated with the odds of substance use on the drug court program. There was a positive relationship between the survey-based measure of impulsivity and the mean substance use frequency. The authors conclude that impulsivity is correlated with substance use among drug court participants but not when measuring impulsivity using a delay discounting paradigm.

  11. Psychological aspects of nuclear waste disposal: Long time perception and the question of discounting of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, G.; Svenson, O.

    1988-01-01

    Subjects of different ages and basic training indicated how they perceived risks related to spent nuclear fuel storage and located at different points of time into the future. The results indicated that minorities in all groups, ranging from about 10 to 40%, did not want to discount risks into the future. Those who discounted exhibited great inter and intra group variability. The physical discounting curves for e.g. both total radiation and for Pu-239 and -240 are within the range of curves generated by the groups for subjective discounting of risk. Politicians and experts were attributed equal shares of responsibility for risks of spent nuclear fuel in the future. About 10% to 40% of the subjects did not wish to discount responsibility. Discounting rates for those discounting varied so that some subjects decreased the level of responsibility to less than half 10 000 years into the future while others attributed this level of responsibility for 100 000 years and more. (orig./HP)

  12. Retailer's inventory system in a two-level trade credit financing with selling price discount and partial order cancelations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangam, A.

    2015-06-01

    In today's fast marketing over the Internet or online, many retailers want to trade at the same time and change their marketing strategy to attract more customers. Some of the customers may decide to cancel their orders partially with a retailer due to various reasons such as increase in customer's waiting time, loss of customer's goodwill on retailer's business, attractive promotional schemes offered by other retailers etc. Even though there is a lag in trading and order cancelation, this paper attempts to develop the retailer's inventory model with the effect of order cancelations during advance sales period. The retailer announces a price discount program during advance sales period to promote his sales and also he offers trade credit financing during the sales periods. The retailer availing trade credit period from his supplier offers a permissible delay period to his customers. The customer who gets an item has allowed paying on or before the permissible delay period which is accounted from the buying time rather than the start period of inventory sales. This accounts for significant changes in the calculations of interest payable and interest earned by the retailer. The retailer's total cost is minimized so as to find out the optimal replenishment cycle time and price discount policies through a solution procedure. The results derived in mathematical theorems are implemented in numerical examples and sensitivity analyses on several inventory parameters are obtained.

  13. Retailer's inventory system in a two-level trade credit financing with selling price discount and partial order cancellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangam, A.

    2014-02-01

    In today's fast marketing over the Internet or online, many retailers want to trade at the same time and change their marketing strategy to attract more customers. Some of the customers may decide to cancel their orders partially with a retailer due to various reasons such as increase in customer's waiting time, loss of customer's goodwill on retailer's business, and attractive promotional schemes offered by other retailers. Even though there is a lag in trading and order cancellation, this paper attempts to develop the retailer's inventory model with the effect of order cancellations during advance sales period. The retailer announces a price discount program during advance sales period to promote his sales and also offers trade credit financing during the sales periods. The retailer availing trade credit period from his supplier offers a permissible delay period to his customers. The customer who gets an item is allowed to pay on or before the permissible delay period which is accounted from the buying time rather than from the start period of inventory sales. This accounts for significant changes in the calculations of interest payable and interest earned by the retailer. The retailer's total cost is minimized so as to find out the optimal replenishment cycle time and price discount policies through a solution procedure. The results derived in mathematical theorems are implemented in numerical examples, and sensitivity analyses on several inventory parameters are obtained.

  14. PPICA, Power Plant Investment Cost Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, J.C.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: This software package contains two modules: - CAPITAL1 calculates investment costs from overnight costs, based on the capital structure of the utility (debt/equity ratio), return and interest rates according to the type of securities involved, and a standard-shaped curve of capital outlays during construction of a power plant. - FCRATE1 calculates the year-by-year revenue requirements to cover the capital-related charges incurred by the new investment and their economic equivalent: the levelled fixed-charge rate and capital contribution to the levelled unit power generation cost per kWh. They are proposed as an alternative to the corresponding modules CAPITAL and FCRATE, included in the LPGC (Levelled Power Generation Cost) suite of codes developed by ORNL and US-DOE. They perform the same type of analysis and provide the same results. 2 - Methods: Results output from CAPITAL1, in terms of the initial investment at startup and the fraction thereof that is allowable for tax depreciation, can be transferred automatically as data input to FCRATE1. Other user-defined data are: the project life, the time horizon of the economic analysis (which does not necessarily coincide with the project life), the plant load factor (lifetime average), the tax rate applicable to utility's income, the tax depreciation scheme and the tax charge accounting method (normalised or flow- through). The results of CAPITAL1 and FCRATE1 are expressed both in current money and in constant money of a reference year. Inflation rate and escalation rate of construction expenditures during construction period, and of fixed charges during service life are defined by the user. The discount rate is set automatically by the programme, equal to the weighted average tax-adjusted cost of money. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: CAPITAL1 and FCRATE1 are 'alternatives', not 'substitutes', to the corresponding programs CAPITAL and FCRATE of the LPGC

  15. How to average logarithmic retrievals?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Funke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Calculation of mean trace gas contributions from profiles obtained by retrievals of the logarithm of the abundance rather than retrievals of the abundance itself are prone to biases. By means of a system simulator, biases of linear versus logarithmic averaging were evaluated for both maximum likelihood and maximum a priori retrievals, for various signal to noise ratios and atmospheric variabilities. These biases can easily reach ten percent or more. As a rule of thumb we found for maximum likelihood retrievals that linear averaging better represents the true mean value in cases of large local natural variability and high signal to noise ratios, while for small local natural variability logarithmic averaging often is superior. In the case of maximum a posteriori retrievals, the mean is dominated by the a priori information used in the retrievals and the method of averaging is of minor concern. For larger natural variabilities, the appropriateness of the one or the other method of averaging depends on the particular case because the various biasing mechanisms partly compensate in an unpredictable manner. This complication arises mainly because of the fact that in logarithmic retrievals the weight of the prior information depends on abundance of the gas itself. No simple rule was found on which kind of averaging is superior, and instead of suggesting simple recipes we cannot do much more than to create awareness of the traps related with averaging of mixing ratios obtained from logarithmic retrievals.

  16. Lagrangian averaging with geodesic mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Marcel

    2017-11-01

    This paper revisits the derivation of the Lagrangian averaged Euler (LAE), or Euler- α equations in the light of an intrinsic definition of the averaged flow map as the geodesic mean on the volume-preserving diffeomorphism group. Under the additional assumption that first-order fluctuations are statistically isotropic and transported by the mean flow as a vector field, averaging of the kinetic energy Lagrangian of an ideal fluid yields the LAE Lagrangian. The derivation presented here assumes a Euclidean spatial domain without boundaries.

  17. Cost effectiveness of eptifibatide in acute coronary syndromes; an economic analysis of Western European patients enrolled in the PURSUIT trial. The Platelet IIa/IIb in unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R E; Henderson, R A; Koster, D; Hutton, J; Simoons, M L

    2002-01-01

    To assess the direct medical costs and cost effectiveness of routine eptifibatide use amongst patients with unstable angina and myocardial infarction without persistent ST-segment elevation in the Western European subgroup of the PURSUIT trial. Health care resources were collected for the Western European PURSUIT trial patients (n=3697). Unit costs for major resources were developed within six countries using a consistent bottom-up methodology. Resource consumption from the Western European population was used to calculate the average direct medical costs per patient in the eptifibatide and placebo arms of the trial. Eptifibatide was estimated to cost 524 Euros per treatment. Long-term survival estimated from the 6-month trial survival data and combined with the cost data was used to calculate cost-effectiveness ratios. Additionally, cost per death and non-fatal myocardial infarction at 30 days was calculated. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the discount rate and resource consumption. Cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from 9603 Euros to 18 115 Euros per year of life saved with 3% discount. Using resource consumption based on countries with low coronary arteriography rates, the cost per year of life saved was between 3329 Euros and 10 079 Euros. Using resource consumption based on high coronary arteriography rate countries, the cost per year of life saved was between 17 089 Euros and 24 099 Euros. Assuming no difference in treatment costs except for the addition of eptifibatide, the incremental cost per year of life saved was 23 818 Euros. Routine eptifibatide use was associated with a reduction in the combined end-point of death and myocardial infarction at 30 days, which was sustained at 6 months. Long-term projections indicate a modest increase in survival in eptifibatide patients. These data translate into cost-effectiveness ratios that compare favourably with other new technologies that are currently in use. Copyright 2001 The European Society of

  18. Averaging in spherically symmetric cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coley, A. A.; Pelavas, N.

    2007-01-01

    The averaging problem in cosmology is of fundamental importance. When applied to study cosmological evolution, the theory of macroscopic gravity (MG) can be regarded as a long-distance modification of general relativity. In the MG approach to the averaging problem in cosmology, the Einstein field equations on cosmological scales are modified by appropriate gravitational correlation terms. We study the averaging problem within the class of spherically symmetric cosmological models. That is, we shall take the microscopic equations and effect the averaging procedure to determine the precise form of the correlation tensor in this case. In particular, by working in volume-preserving coordinates, we calculate the form of the correlation tensor under some reasonable assumptions on the form for the inhomogeneous gravitational field and matter distribution. We find that the correlation tensor in a Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background must be of the form of a spatial curvature. Inhomogeneities and spatial averaging, through this spatial curvature correction term, can have a very significant dynamical effect on the dynamics of the Universe and cosmological observations; in particular, we discuss whether spatial averaging might lead to a more conservative explanation of the observed acceleration of the Universe (without the introduction of exotic dark matter fields). We also find that the correlation tensor for a non-FLRW background can be interpreted as the sum of a spatial curvature and an anisotropic fluid. This may lead to interesting effects of averaging on astrophysical scales. We also discuss the results of averaging an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution as well as calculations of linear perturbations (that is, the backreaction) in an FLRW background, which support the main conclusions of the analysis

  19. Efficient computation of discounted asymmetric information zero-sum stochastic games

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Lichun; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2015-01-01

    In asymmetric information zero-sum games, one player has superior information about the game over the other. Asymmetric information games are particularly relevant for security problems, e.g., where an attacker knows its own skill set or alternatively a system administrator knows the state of its resources. In such settings, the informed player is faced with the tradeoff of exploiting its superior information at the cost of revealing its superior information. This tradeoff is typically addressed through randomization, in an effort to keep the uninformed player informationally off balance. A lingering issue is the explicit computation of such strategies. This paper, building on prior work for repeated games, presents an LP formulation to compute suboptimal strategies for the informed player in discounted asymmetric information stochastic games in which state transitions are not affected by the uninformed player. Furthermore, the paper presents bounds between the security level guaranteed by the sub-optimal strategy and the optimal value. The results are illustrated on a stochastic intrusion detection problem.

  20. Efficient computation of discounted asymmetric information zero-sum stochastic games

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Lichun

    2015-12-15

    In asymmetric information zero-sum games, one player has superior information about the game over the other. Asymmetric information games are particularly relevant for security problems, e.g., where an attacker knows its own skill set or alternatively a system administrator knows the state of its resources. In such settings, the informed player is faced with the tradeoff of exploiting its superior information at the cost of revealing its superior information. This tradeoff is typically addressed through randomization, in an effort to keep the uninformed player informationally off balance. A lingering issue is the explicit computation of such strategies. This paper, building on prior work for repeated games, presents an LP formulation to compute suboptimal strategies for the informed player in discounted asymmetric information stochastic games in which state transitions are not affected by the uninformed player. Furthermore, the paper presents bounds between the security level guaranteed by the sub-optimal strategy and the optimal value. The results are illustrated on a stochastic intrusion detection problem.

  1. Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Noventa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.

  2. An analysis of the influence of discount sales promotion in consumer buying intent and the moderating effects of attractiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando de Oliveira Santini

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of discount sales promotion in the purchase intention and the moderating effects of attractiveness in the relationship between intention to purchase a discounted product and the impulsiveness, hedonic perception and financial risk. Thus, an experiment involving 613 students was conducted. The hypotheses predicted that a product with discount promotion would relate positively with impulsivity, as well as with a hedonic perception about the good offered, and negatively with the perception of financial risk associated with the product offered with discount. A positive moderation was expected of the perceived attractiveness of the announced discount promotion on the intentions of behaviors. The results confirmed the hypothesis, indicating positive effects of impulsivity and hedonic perception by purchasing the discounted products, in addition to the negative link between the intention of purchasing discounted products and the perception of a financial risk. The moderating effects were not confirmed. Final considerations conclude the work.

  3. High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

    2013-03-01

    Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

  4. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. 26 CFR 1.818-3 - Amortization of premium and accrual of discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... required under section 818(b) on account of accruable discounts. (f) Denial of double inclusion. Any amount... section shall not be includible in gross income under section 1232(a) (relating to the taxation of bonds...

  6. The discount rate in the economic evaluation of prevention: a thought experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.G.A. Bonneux (Luc); E. Birnie (Erwin)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVES: In the standard economic model of evaluation, constant discount rates devalue the long term health benefits of prevention strongly. This study shows that it is unlikely that this reflects societal preference. DESIGN: A thought experiment in a

  7. Reviewing and piloting methods for decreasing discount rates; someone, somewhere in time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parouty, Mehraj B Y; Krooshof, Daan G M; Westra, Tjalke A; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Postma, Maarten J

    2013-08-01

    There has been substantial debate on the need for decreasing discounting for monetary and health gains in economic evaluations. Next to the discussion on differential discounting, a way to identify the need for such discounting strategies is through eliciting the time preferences for monetary and health outcomes. In this article, the authors investigate the perceived time preference for money and health gains through a pilot survey on Dutch university students using methods on functional forms previously suggested. Formal objectives of the study were to review such existing methods and to pilot them on a convenience sample using a questionnaire designed for this specific purpose. Indeed, a negative relation between the time of delay and the variance of the discounting rate for all models was observed. This study was intended as a pilot for a large-scale population-based investigation using the findings from this pilot on wording of the questionnaire, interpretation, scope and analytic framework.

  8. 15 CFR 990.63 - Discounting and compounding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OIL POLLUTION ACT REGULATIONS.... (a) Estimated future restoration costs. When determining estimated future costs of implementing a.... The price indices used to project future inflation should reflect the major components of the...

  9. Optimizing Discount Rates: Expressing Preferences for Sustainable Outcomes in Present Value Calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Axelrod, David

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes how the discount rate used in present value calculations expresses the preference for sustainability in decision making, and its implication for sustainable economic growth. In essence, the lower the discount rate, the greater the regard for the future, and the more likely we choose behaviors that lead to long-term sustainability. The theoretical framework combines behavioral economics and holonomics, which involve limitations of regard for the future due to constraints o...

  10. Insulin, Central Dopamine D2 Receptors, and Monetary Reward Discounting in Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenstein, Sarah A; Gredysa, Danuta M; Antenor-Dorsey, Jo Ann; Green, Leonard; Arbeláez, Ana Maria; Koller, Jonathan M; Black, Kevin J; Perlmutter, Joel S; Moerlein, Stephen M; Hershey, Tamara

    2015-01-01

    Animal research finds that insulin regulates dopamine signaling and reward behavior, but similar research in humans is lacking. We investigated whether individual differences in body mass index, percent body fat, pancreatic β-cell function, and dopamine D2 receptor binding were related to reward discounting in obese and non-obese adult men and women. Obese (n = 27; body mass index>30) and non-obese (n = 20; body mass indexmonetary rewards relative to immediate, certain smaller monetary rewards was measured using delayed and probabilistic reward discounting tasks. Positron emission tomography using a non-displaceable D2-specific radioligand, [11C](N-methyl)benperidol quantified striatal D2 receptor binding. Groups differed in body mass index, percent body fat, and disposition index, but not in striatal D2 receptor specific binding or reward discounting. Higher percent body fat in non-obese women related to preference for a smaller, certain reward over a larger, less likely one (greater probabilistic discounting). Lower β-cell function in the total sample and lower insulin sensitivity in obese related to stronger preference for an immediate and smaller monetary reward over delayed receipt of a larger one (greater delay discounting). In obese adults, higher striatal D2 receptor binding related to greater delay discounting. Interestingly, striatal D2 receptor binding was not significantly related to body mass index, percent body fat, or β-cell function in either group. Our findings indicate that individual differences in percent body fat, β-cell function, and striatal D2 receptor binding may each contribute to altered reward discounting behavior in non-obese and obese individuals. These results raise interesting questions about whether and how striatal D2 receptor binding and metabolic factors, including β-cell function, interact to affect reward discounting in humans.

  11. Association of cognition with temporal discounting in community based older persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyle Patricia A

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that cognitive function is negatively associated with temporal discounting in old age. Methods Participants were 388 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging in the Chicago metropolitan area. Temporal discounting was measured using standard questions in which participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one. Cognition was measured using a detailed battery including 19 tests. The association between cognition and temporal discounting was examined via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, income, and the number of chronic medical conditions. Results Descriptive data revealed a consistent pattern whereby older persons with lower cognitive function were more likely to discount greater but delayed rewards compared to those with higher cognitive function. Further, in a mixed effect model adjusted for age, sex, education, income, and chronic medical conditions, global cognitive function was negatively associated with temporal discounting (estimate = −0.45, SE = 0.18, p = 0.015, such that a person with lower cognition exhibited greater discounting. Finally, in subsequent models examining domain specific associations, perceptual speed and visuospatial abilities were associated with temporal discounting, but episodic memory, semantic memory and working memory were not. Conclusion Among older persons without dementia, a lower level of cognitive function is associated with greater temporal discounting. These findings have implications regarding the ability of older persons to make decisions that involve delayed rewards but maximize well-being.

  12. Analisi Pengaruh Store Name, Brand Name, Dan Price Discounts Terhadap Purchase Intentions Konsumen Infinite Tunjungan Plaza

    OpenAIRE

    Gunawan, Andy

    2013-01-01

    Andy Gunawan:SkripsiAnalisis pengaruh store name, brand name dan price discounts terhadap purchase intention konsumen infnite tunjungan plaza Di era globalisasi ini, persaingan dagang antara Perusahaan – Perusahaan baik lokal maupun global menjadi semakin ketat, oleh karena itu Perusahaan selalu berusaha untuk meningkatkan ketertarikan minat beli konsumen. Beberapa variabel yang menjadi fokus Perusahaan adalah store name, brand name, dan price discount. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meng...

  13. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

    OpenAIRE

    John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller

    1986-01-01

    A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate re...

  14. Optimal harvesting of fish stocks under a time-varying discount rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Stephen; Hepburn, Cameron; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2011-01-21

    Optimal control theory has been extensively used to determine the optimal harvesting policy for renewable resources such as fish stocks. In such optimisations, it is common to maximise the discounted utility of harvesting over time, employing a constant time discount rate. However, evidence from human and animal behaviour suggests that we have evolved to employ discount rates which fall over time, often referred to as "hyperbolic discounting". This increases the weight on benefits in the distant future, which may appear to provide greater protection of resources for future generations, but also creates challenges of time-inconsistent plans. This paper examines harvesting plans when the discount rate declines over time. With a declining discount rate, the planner reduces stock levels in the early stages (when the discount rate is high) and intends to compensate by allowing the stock level to recover later (when the discount rate will be lower). Such a plan may be feasible and optimal, provided that the planner remains committed throughout. However, in practice there is a danger that such plans will be re-optimized and adjusted in the future. It is shown that repeatedly restarting the optimization can drive the stock level down to the point where the optimal policy is to harvest the stock to extinction. In short, a key contribution of this paper is to identify the surprising severity of the consequences flowing from incorporating a rather trivial, and widely prevalent, "non-rational" aspect of human behaviour into renewable resource management models. These ideas are related to the collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in the 1970's. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Escaping the repugnant conclusion: rank-discounted utilitarianism with variable population

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir Bjarne; Zuber, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    We contribute to population ethics by proposing and axiomatizing rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (RDCLU). Population ethics is needed for evaluation of policies, e.g., concerning climate change, where population size depends on the chosen policy. We show that critical-level generalized utilitarianism and (a version of) critical-level leximin are the limits of RDCLU for extreme values of the rank utility discount factor. Moreover, we establish how RDCLU avoids serious...

  16. Higher-moment stochastic discount factor specifications and the cross-section of asset returns

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Dengli

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic discount factor model provides a general framework for pricing assets. A suitably specified discount factor encompasses most of the theories currently in use, including the CAPM, consumption CAPM, higher-moment CAPM and their conditional versions. In this thesis, we focus on the empirical admissibility of alternative SDFs under restrictions that ensure that investors’ risk-preferences are well behaved. More innovatively, we explore whether the SDF implied by the 3 and 4-mome...

  17. Comorbid depression, antisocial personality, and substance dependence: Relationship with delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, Lara; Franck, Christopher; Bickel, Warren K

    2016-03-01

    Within the field of addiction, as many as four-fifths of individuals in treatment for substance use disorder have co-existing lifetime psychopathology and as high as two-thirds have current psychopathology. Among substance-dependent individuals, excessive delay discounting is pervasive. Despite evidence of excessive discounting across substance use disorders, few studies have investigated the impact of co-occurring psychopathologies and SUD on delay discounting. We compared delay discounting in currently abstaining substance users with (a) SUD (n=166), (b) SUD and managed major depressive disorder (MDD; n=44), (c) SUD and antisocial personality disorder (APD; n=35), (d) SUD and managed MDD and APD (n=22) and (e) no SUD or co-occurring psychopathology (n=60). All groups with SUD discounted future delayed rewards significantly more than healthy controls (p<0.001 in each case, d=0.686, 0.835, 1.098 and 1.650, respective to groups a-d above). Individuals with both APD and SUD and individuals with MDD, APD, and SUD discounted future rewards significantly more than substance users without comorbid psychopathology (p=0.029, d=0.412 and p<0.001, d=0.964, respectively). Overall, individuals with multiple psychopathologies in addition to substance use have exacerbated deficits in discounting of the future, above and beyond that observed in substance use alone. Increased discounting in combined substance and psychopathology profiles suggest a greater chance of treatment failure and therefore may necessitate individualized treatment using adjunctive interventions to achieve better treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluations of average level spacings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liou, H.I.

    1980-01-01

    The average level spacing for highly excited nuclei is a key parameter in cross section formulas based on statistical nuclear models, and also plays an important role in determining many physics quantities. Various methods to evaluate average level spacings are reviewed. Because of the finite experimental resolution, to detect a complete sequence of levels without mixing other parities is extremely difficult, if not totally impossible. Most methods derive the average level spacings by applying a fit, with different degrees of generality, to the truncated Porter-Thomas distribution for reduced neutron widths. A method that tests both distributions of level widths and positions is discussed extensivey with an example of 168 Er data. 19 figures, 2 tables

  19. Exploring the market for third-party-owned residential photovoltaic systems: insights from lease and power-purchase agreement contract structures and costs in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Carolyn; Steinberg, Daniel; Margolis, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several years, third-party-ownership (TPO) structures for residential photovoltaic (PV) systems have become the predominant ownership model in the US residential market. Under a TPO contract, the PV system host typically makes payments to the third-party owner of the system. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the total TPO contract payments made by the customer can differ significantly from payments in which the system host directly purchases the system. Furthermore, payments can vary depending on TPO contract structure. To date, a paucity of data on TPO contracts has precluded studies evaluating trends in TPO contract cost. This study relies on a sample of 1113 contracts for residential PV systems installed in 2010–2012 under the California Solar Initiative to evaluate how the timing of payments under a TPO contract impacts the ultimate cost of the system to the customer. Furthermore, we evaluate how the total cost of TPO systems to customers has changed through time, and the degree to which contract costs have tracked trends in the installed costs of a PV system. We find that the structure of the contract and the timing of the payments have financial implications for the customer: (1) power-purchase contracts, on average, cost more than leases, (2) no-money-down contracts are more costly than prepaid contracts, assuming a customer’s discount rate is lower than 17% and (3) contracts that include escalator clauses cost more, for both power-purchase agreements and leases, at most plausible discount rates. In addition, all contract costs exhibit a wide range, and do not parallel trends in installed costs over time. (letter)

  20. Ergodic averages via dominating processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2006-01-01

    We show how the mean of a monotone function (defined on a state space equipped with a partial ordering) can be estimated, using ergodic averages calculated from upper and lower dominating processes of a stationary irreducible Markov chain. In particular, we do not need to simulate the stationary...... Markov chain and we eliminate the problem of whether an appropriate burn-in is determined or not. Moreover, when a central limit theorem applies, we show how confidence intervals for the mean can be estimated by bounding the asymptotic variance of the ergodic average based on the equilibrium chain....

  1. Production cost of biomasses from eucalyptus and elefant grass for energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Marie Roger Quéno

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This work established the unit energy cost generated from biomass of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus sp. and elephant grass (Pennisetum sp. and applied a sensitivity analysis to verify the influences of factors such as the silviculture of eucalyptus, production volume of each species, the cost of land and the interest rate. It was shown that the treatment of eucalyptus in very short rotation of 2 years with reform of stand every 6 years has a average cost of production higher than the traditional treatment of short rotation of 6 years with reform only at the age of 18. It was also observed that eucalyptus has a Production Cost on average of R$ 4,41 /Gj, lower than the elephant grass which is on average of R$ 5,44/Gj, which however has a higher annual capacity of dry matter production. The elephant grass has the possibility to compete with eucalyptus when a set of conditions is met: discount rate higher than or equal to 8%, High price of land, and elephant grass high volume production, greater than or equal to 35 tonnes of dry matter per hectare and year.

  2. Cost recovery of NGO primary health care facilities: a case study in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alam Khurshid

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the cost recovery of primary health care facilities in Bangladesh. This study estimated the cost recovery of a primary health care facility run by Building Resources Across Community (BRAC, a large NGO in Bangladesh, for the period of July 2004 - June 2005. This health facility is one of the seven upgraded BRAC facilities providing emergency obstetric care and is typical of the government and private primary health care facilities in Bangladesh. Given the current maternal and child mortality in Bangladesh and the challenges to addressing health-related Millennium Development Goal (MDG targets the financial sustainability of such facilities is crucial. Methods The study was designed as a case study covering a single facility. The methodology was based on the 'ingredient approach' using the allocation techniques by inpatient and outpatient services. Cost recovery of the facility was estimated from the provider's perspective. The value of capital items was annualized using 5% discount rate and its market price of 2004 (replacement value. Sensitivity analysis was done using 3% discount rate. Results The cost recovery ratio of the BRAC primary care facility was 59%, and if excluding all capital costs, it increased to 72%. Of the total costs, 32% was for personnel while drugs absorbed 18%. Capital items were17% of total costs while operational cost absorbed 12%. Three-quarters of the total cost was variable costs. Inpatient services contributed 74% of total revenue in exchange of 10% of total utilization. An average cost per patient was US$ 10 while it was US$ 67 for inpatient and US$ 4 for outpatient. Conclusion The cost recovery of this NGO primary care facility is important for increasing its financial sustainability and decreasing donor dependency, and achieving universal health coverage in a developing country setting. However, for improving the cost recovery of the health facility, it needs to increase

  3. Predictive Validity of Delay Discounting Behavior in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isen, Joshua D.; Sparks, Jordan C.; Iacono, William G.

    2014-01-01

    A standard assumption in the delay discounting literature is that individuals who exhibit steeper discounting of hypothetical rewards also experience greater difficulty deferring gratification to real-world rewards. There is ample cross-sectional evidence that delay discounting paradigms reflect a variety of maladaptive psychosocial outcomes, including substance use pathology. We sought to determine whether a computerized assessment of hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) taps into behavioral impulsivity in a community sample of adolescent twins (N = 675). Using a longitudinal design, we hypothesized that greater HDD at age 14–15 predicts real-world impulsive choices and risk for substance use disorders in late adolescence. We also examined the genetic and environmental structure of HDD performance. Individual differences in HDD behavior showed moderate heritability, and were prospectively associated with real-world temporal discounting at age 17–18. Contrary to expectations, HDD was not consistently related to substance use or trait impulsivity. Although a significant association between HDD behavior and past substance use emerged in males, this effect was mediated by cognitive ability. In both sexes, HDD failed to predict a comprehensive index of substance use problems and behavioral disinhibition in late adolescence. In sum, we present some of the first evidence that HDD performance is heritable and predictive of real-world temporal discounting of rewards. Nevertheless, HDD might not serve as a valid marker of substance use disorder risk in younger adolescents, particularly females. PMID:24999868

  4. Individual differences in delay discounting under acute stress: the role of trait perceived stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina M. Lempert

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Delay discounting refers to the reduction of the value of a future reward as the delay to that reward increases. The rate at which individuals discount future rewards varies as a function of both individual and contextual differences, and high delay discounting rates have been linked with problematic behaviors, including drug abuse and gambling. The current study investigated the effects of acute anticipatory stress on delay discounting, while considering two important factors: individual perceptions of stress and whether the stressful situation is future-focused or present-focused. Half of the participants experienced acute stress by anticipating giving a videotaped speech. This stress was either future-oriented (speech about future job or present-oriented (speech about physical appearance. They then performed a delay discounting task, in which they chose between smaller, immediate rewards and larger, delayed rewards. Their scores on the Perceived Stress Scale were also collected. The way in which one appraises a stressful situation interacts with acute stress to influence choices; under stressful conditions, delay discounting rate was highest in individuals with low perceived stress and lowest for individuals with high perceived stress. This result might be related to individual variation in reward responsiveness under stress. Furthermore, the time orientation of the task interacted with its stressfulness to affect the individual’s propensity to choose immediate rewards. These findings add to our understanding of the intermediary factors between stress and decision making.

  5. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  6. Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline

    2007-04-01

    We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.

  7. Psychosocial Influences on Fruit and Vegetable Intake Following a NYC Supermarket Discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernales-Korins, Maria; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Khan, Shamima; Geliebter, Allan

    2017-08-01

    To assess the effect of a 50% discount on fruits and vegetables (F&V) on the purchase and intake of F&V and on psychosocial determinants of F&V intake: self-efficacy (SE), stages of change (SOC), and perceived barriers (PB). This randomized controlled trial was conducted in local supermarkets over 16 weeks, including a 4-week baseline, 8-week discount intervention, and 4-week follow-up. Shoppers with overweight or obesity (BMI > 25) were randomized to receive a discount or no discount via their reward scan card after the baseline. Twenty-four-hour recalls and psychosocial measures were obtained for each study period. Purchases (P supermarket discount intervention led to increases in purchases and intakes of F&V and increases in the psychosocial factors SE and SOC and did not decrease PB. The discount intervention prompted participants to move from the preparation to action stage of SOC, which acted as a mediator for increased F&V intake. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  8. Intertemporal Decision Making After Brain Injury: Amount-Dependent Steeper Discounting after Frontal Cortex Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Białaszek Wojciech

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injuries to the frontal lobes are associated with many maladaptive forms of behavior. We investigated the association between brain damage and impulsivity, as measured by the rate of delay discounting (i.e., the extent to which future outcomes are devalued in time. The main aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of steeper discounting of different amounts in a group of patients with frontal lobe damage. We used a delay discounting task in the form of a structured interview. A total of 117 participants were divided into five groups: three neurological groups and two groups without brain damage. Our analyses showed that patients with focal damage to the frontal lobes demonstrated steeper delay discounting than other participants. Other clinical groups demonstrated similar discounting rates. The data pattern related to the magnitude effect on the group level suggested that the magnitude effect is absent in the group of patients with damage to the frontal lobes; however, results were less consistent on an individual level. Amount-dependent discounting was observed in only two groups, the healthy control group and the neurological group with other cortical areas damaged.

  9. High average power supercontinuum sources

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The physical mechanisms and basic experimental techniques for the creation of high average spectral power supercontinuum sources is briefly reviewed. We focus on the use of high-power ytterbium-doped fibre lasers as pump sources, and the use of highly nonlinear photonic crystal fibres as the nonlinear medium.

  10. High average power linear induction accelerator development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayless, J.R.; Adler, R.J.

    1987-07-01

    There is increasing interest in linear induction accelerators (LIAs) for applications including free electron lasers, high power microwave generators and other types of radiation sources. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has developed LIA technology in combination with magnetic pulse compression techniques to achieve very impressive performance levels. In this paper we will briefly discuss the LIA concept and describe our development program. Our goals are to improve the reliability and reduce the cost of LIA systems. An accelerator is presently under construction to demonstrate these improvements at an energy of 1.6 MeV in 2 kA, 65 ns beam pulses at an average beam power of approximately 30 kW. The unique features of this system are a low cost accelerator design and an SCR-switched, magnetically compressed, pulse power system. 4 refs., 7 figs

  11. Baseline-dependent averaging in radio interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnholds, S. J.; Willis, A. G.; Salvini, S.

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents a detailed analysis of the applicability and benefits of baseline-dependent averaging (BDA) in modern radio interferometers and in particular the Square Kilometre Array. We demonstrate that BDA does not affect the information content of the data other than a well-defined decorrelation loss for which closed form expressions are readily available. We verify these theoretical findings using simulations. We therefore conclude that BDA can be used reliably in modern radio interferometry allowing a reduction of visibility data volume (and hence processing costs for handling visibility data) by more than 80 per cent.

  12. Cost minimisation analysis of fingolimod vs natalizumab as a second line of treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, C; Izquierdo, G; García-Ruiz, A; Granell, M; Brosa, M

    2014-05-01

    At present, there is a lack of economic assessments of second-line treatments for relapsing-recurring multiple sclerosis. The aim of this study was to compare the efficiency between fingolimod and natalizumab in Spain. A cost minimisation analysis model was developed for a 2-year horizon. The same relapse rate was applied to both treatment arms and the cost of resources was calculated using Spain's stipulated rates for 2012 in euros. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of Spain's national health system and an annual discount rate of 3% was applied to future costs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to validate the robustness of the model. Indirect comparison of fingolimod with natalizumab revealed no significant differences (hazard ratio between 0.82 and 1.07). The total direct cost, considering a 2-year analytical horizon, a 7.5% discount stipulated by Royal Decree, and a mean annual relapse rate of 0.22, was € 40914.72 for fingolimod and € 45890.53 for natalizumab. Of the total direct costs that were analysed, the maximum cost savings derived from prescribing fingolimod prescription was € 4363.63, corresponding to lower administration and treatment maintenance costs. Based on the sensitivity analysis performed, fingolimod use was associated with average savings of 11% (range 3.1%-18.7%). Fingolimod is more efficient than natalizumab as a second-line treatment option for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and it generates savings for the Spanish national health system. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. DISCOUNT-G, Nuclear Power Program with Cost Analysis and Pu Production Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliffe, C.E.; Jones, R.A.; Cope, F.; Howard, J.

    1976-01-01

    1 - Nature of physical problem solved - The programme builds up a complete nuclear power programme and, among other things, matches plutonium produced within the programme to that required within it. The output includes the variation of load factor with time for each type of station and the present worth of the total expenditure. Also included are the minimum selling prices of any specified amounts of plutonium sold at any specified times. 2 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Time interval must be year or half-year. Number of intervals must not exceed 200

  14. Non-marginal cost-benefit analysis and the tyranny of discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeylen, K.

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses the Kaldor-Hicks compensation principle to compute the present value (PV) of a non-marginal future event. Three theoretical results stand out: First, decreasing returns to capital create a wedge between the PV of future generations' willingness to pay (WTP) and the PV of their

  15. When good = better than average

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don A. Moore

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available People report themselves to be above average on simple tasks and below average on difficult tasks. This paper proposes an explanation for this effect that is simpler than prior explanations. The new explanation is that people conflate relative with absolute evaluation, especially on subjective measures. The paper then presents a series of four studies that test this conflation explanation. These tests distinguish conflation from other explanations, such as differential weighting and selecting the wrong referent. The results suggest that conflation occurs at the response stage during which people attempt to disambiguate subjective response scales in order to choose an answer. This is because conflation has little effect on objective measures, which would be equally affected if the conflation occurred at encoding.

  16. Preventive health screenings and health consultations in primary care increase life expectancy without increasing costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Susanne R; Thomsen, Janus Laust; Kilsmark, Janni

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: The intention was to investigate whether preventive health checks and health discussions are cost effective. METHODS: In a randomized trial the authors compared two intervention groups (A and B) and one control group. In 1991 2,000 30- to 49-year-old persons were invited and those who...... were given fixed appointments for health consultations. The follow-up period was six years. Analysis was carried out on the "intention to treat" principle. Outcome parameters were life years gained, and direct and total health costs (including productivity costs), discounted by 3% annually. Costs were...... in average direct (3,255 euro (3,703 euro) versus 4,186 euro) and total costs (10,409 euro (9,399 euro) versus 10,667 euro). The effect in group B is, however, better than in group A with no significant differences in costs. The results are insensitive to a range of assumptions regarding costs, effects...

  17. Autoregressive Moving Average Graph Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Isufi, Elvin; Loukas, Andreas; Simonetto, Andrea; Leus, Geert

    2016-01-01

    One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions, which (i) are able to approximate any desired graph frequency response, and (ii) give exact solutions for tasks such as graph signal denoising and interpolation. The design phi...

  18. Cost-utility analysis of memantine extended release added to cholinesterase inhibitors compared to cholinesterase inhibitor monotherapy for the treatment of moderate-to-severe dementia of the Alzheimer's type in the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint-Laurent Thibault, Catherine; Özer Stillman, Ipek; Chen, Stephanie; Getsios, Denis; Proskorovsky, Irina; Hernandez, Luis; Dixit, Shailja

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of memantine extended release (ER) as an add-on therapy to acetylcholinesterase inhibitor (AChEI) [combination therapy] for treatment of patients with moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease (AD) from both a healthcare payer and a societal perspective over 3 years when compared to AChEI monotherapy in the US. A phase III trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of memantine ER for treatment of AD patients taking an AChEI. The analysis assessed the long-term costs and health outcomes using an individual patient simulation in which AD progression is modeled in terms of cognition, behavior, and functioning changes. Input parameters are based on patient-level trial data, published literature, and publicly available data sources. Changes in anti-psychotic medication use are incorporated based on a published retrospective cohort study. Costs include drug acquisition and monitoring, total AD-related medical care, and informal care associated with caregiver time. Incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR), life years, care time for caregiver, time in community and institution, time on anti-psychotics, time by disease severity, and time without severe symptoms are reported. Costs and health outcomes are discounted at 3% per annum. Considering a societal perspective over 3 years, this analysis shows that memantine ER combined with an AChEI provides better clinical outcomes and lower costs than AChEI monotherapy. Discounted average savings were estimated at $18,355 and $20,947 per patient and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by an average of 0.12 and 0.13 from a societal and healthcare payer perspective, respectively. Patients on combination therapy spent an average of 4 months longer living at home and spend less time in moderate-severe and severe stages of the disease. Combination therapy for patients with moderate-to-severe AD is a cost-effective treatment compared to AChEI monotherapy in the US.

  19. Averaging Robertson-Walker cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Iain A.; Robbers, Georg; Behrend, Juliane

    2009-01-01

    The cosmological backreaction arises when one directly averages the Einstein equations to recover an effective Robertson-Walker cosmology, rather than assuming a background a priori. While usually discussed in the context of dark energy, strictly speaking any cosmological model should be recovered from such a procedure. We apply the scalar spatial averaging formalism for the first time to linear Robertson-Walker universes containing matter, radiation and dark energy. The formalism employed is general and incorporates systems of multiple fluids with ease, allowing us to consider quantitatively the universe from deep radiation domination up to the present day in a natural, unified manner. Employing modified Boltzmann codes we evaluate numerically the discrepancies between the assumed and the averaged behaviour arising from the quadratic terms, finding the largest deviations for an Einstein-de Sitter universe, increasing rapidly with Hubble rate to a 0.01% effect for h = 0.701. For the ΛCDM concordance model, the backreaction is of the order of Ω eff 0 ≈ 4 × 10 −6 , with those for dark energy models being within a factor of two or three. The impacts at recombination are of the order of 10 −8 and those in deep radiation domination asymptote to a constant value. While the effective equations of state of the backreactions in Einstein-de Sitter, concordance and quintessence models are generally dust-like, a backreaction with an equation of state w eff < −1/3 can be found for strongly phantom models

  20. Trends in the use and advertising of discount versus premium snuff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timberlake, David S; Pechmann, Cornelia

    2013-02-01

    The Conwood Company, a major producer of discount moist snuff, was awarded a $1 billion antitrust settlement in the year 2000 against its leading competitor, the U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company. The objective of this study was to examine the trends in use and advertising of discount versus premium snuff since the Conwood settlement, a topic seldom addressed in the tobacco control literature. 2 sources of data were analyzed in 2011: (a) male snuff users from the 2002-2009 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N = 13,172) and (b) total advertisements of moist snuff identified from over 350 consumer magazines dated 2005-2009 (N = 861). For the survey data, demographic and tobacco-related measures were assessed as predictors of use of discount versus premium snuff in logistic regression models. For the advertising data, associations were examined between the snuff category and nicotine content, magazine youth readership, and year of magazine publication. The prevalence of discount and premium snuff use among males increased and decreased, respectively, from 2002 to 2009. Significant predictors of using discount versus premium snuff were being an adolescent, being an African-American, being a current or former smoker, living in a less populated region of the country, and using snuff frequently. Discount snuff advertising was associated with publication in magazines with a high youth readership. Discount snuff has grown in popularity among male adolescents who have been a target of advertising. The tobacco's cheap price and high nicotine content pose a public health problem because of the potential for long-term tobacco use and dependence.

  1. Unhealthy diets, obesity and time discounting: a systematic literature review and network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Pepita; Reeves, Aaron; McKee, Martin; Galea, Gauden; Stuckler, David

    2016-09-01

    There is an increasing policy commitment to address the avoidable burdens of unhealthy diet, overweight and obesity. However, to design effective policies, it is important to understand why people make unhealthy dietary choices. Research from behavioural economics suggests a critical role for time discounting, which describes how people's value of a reward, such as better health, decreases with delay to its receipt. We systematically reviewed the literature on the relationship of time discounting with unhealthy diets, overweight and obesity in Web of Science and PubMed. We identified 41 studies that met our inclusion criteria as they examined the association between time discount rates and (i) unhealthy food consumption; (ii) overweight and (iii) response to dietary and weight loss interventions. Nineteen out of 25 cross-sectional studies found time discount rates positively associated with overweight, obesity and unhealthy diets. Experimental studies indicated that lower time discounting was associated with greater weight loss. Findings varied by how time discount rates were measured; stronger results were observed for food than monetary-based measurements. Network co-citation analysis revealed a concentration of research in nutrition journals. Overall, there is moderate evidence that high time discounting is a significant risk factor for unhealthy diets, overweight and obesity and may serve as an important target for intervention. © 2016 The Authors Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Association for the Study of Obesity (IASO). © 2016 The Authors Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Association for the Study of Obesity (IASO).

  2. Cost-benefit assessment of energy efficiency investments: Accounting for future resources, savings and risks in the Australian residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, J.; Meyrick, B.; Sivaraman, D.; Horne, R.E.; Berry, M.

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on the impact of the discount rate on cost-benefit assessment of investment options for residential building efficiency. An integrated thermal modeling, life cycle costing approach is applied to an extensive sample of dominant house designs for Australian conditions. The relative significance of predicted thermal performance and the applied discount rate on the Present Value of energy savings from alternative investment scenarios is investigated. Costs and benefits are also evaluated at the economy-wide scale, including carbon pricing considerations, and for a test-case household faced with alternative investment options at the point of construction. The influence of the applied discount rate on produced cost-benefit calculations is investigated, as is the interaction between critical cost-benefit input parameters. Findings support that the discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in estimates about costs and benefits of higher standards of efficiency in the residential sector. Results demonstrate that agreement on a low discount rate based on sustainability principals would prioritise those projects with significant environmental benefits. - Highlights: ► High thermal efficiency is a key strategy to limit energy use in buildings. ► Integrated thermal modeling—life-cycle costing methods are applied to dominant house designs. ► The discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in observed costs. ► The selection of optimal performance investment options depends on the discount rate. ► Application of a discount rate of 3.5% or lower favours energy saving projects

  3. Using crowdsourcing to compare temporal, social temporal, and probability discounting among obese and non-obese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickel, Warren K; George Wilson, A; Franck, Christopher T; Terry Mueller, E; Jarmolowicz, David P; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Fede, Samantha J

    2014-04-01

    Previous research comparing obese and non-obese samples on the delayed discounting procedure has produced mixed results. The aim of the current study was to clarify these discrepant findings by comparing a variety of temporal discounting measures in a large sample of internet users (n=1163) obtained from a crowdsourcing service, Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Measures of temporal, social-temporal (a combination of standard and social temporal), and probability discounting were obtained. Significant differences were obtained on all discounting measures except probability discounting, but the obtained effect sizes were small. These data suggest that larger-N studies will be more likely to detect differences between obese and non-obese samples, and may afford the opportunity, in future studies, to decompose a large obese sample into different subgroups to examine the effect of other relevant measures, such as the reinforcing value of food, on discounting. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Discounting of Condom-Protected Sex as a Measure of High Risk for Sexually Transmitted Infection Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collado, Anahí; Johnson, Patrick S; Loya, Jennifer M; Johnson, Matthew W; Yi, Richard

    2017-10-01

    The study examined sexual delay discounting, or the devaluation of condom-protected sex in the face of delay, as a risk factor for sexually transmitted infection (STI) among college students. Participants (143 females, 117 males) completed the sexual delay discounting task (Johnson & Bruner, 2012) and questionnaires of risky sexual behavior, risk perception, and knowledge. Participants exhibited steeper sexual delay discounting (above and beyond general likelihood of having unprotected sex) when partners were viewed as more desirable or less likely to have a STI, with males demonstrating greater sexual delay discounting than females across most conditions. Importantly, greater self-reported risky sexual behaviors were associated with higher rates of sexual delay discounting, but not with likelihood of using a condom in the absence of delay. These results provide support for considering sexual delay discounting, with particular emphasis on potential delays to condom use, as a risk factor for STI among college students.

  5. Cost functions of greenhouse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderoth, H.

    2000-01-01

    The benchmark is equal to the cost (D) caused by an increase in temperature since the middle of the nineteenth century (T) of nearly 2.5 deg. C. According to mainstream economists, the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, but very different estimates can also be found. Even though there appears to be agreement among a number of economists that the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, major differences exist when it comes to estimating D for different sectors. One of the main problems is how to estimate non-market activities. Normally, the benchmark is the best guess, but due to the possibility of catastrophic events this can be considerable smaller than the mean. Certainly, the cost function is skewed to the right. The benchmark is just one point on the cost curve. To a great extent, cost functions are alike in greenhouse models (D = α ''.T'' λ). Cost functions are region and sector dependent in several models. In any case, both α (benchmark) and λ are rough estimates. Besides being dependent on α and λ, the marginal emission cost depends on the discount rate. In fact, because emissions have effects continuing for many years, the discount rate is clearly the most important parameter. (au) (au)

  6. Singular Perturbation for the Discounted Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, O. L. V.; Dufour, F.

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the expected discounted continuous control of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP’s) using a singular perturbation approach for dealing with rapidly oscillating parameters. The state space of the PDMP is written as the product of a finite set and a subset of the Euclidean space ℝ n . The discrete part of the state, called the regime, characterizes the mode of operation of the physical system under consideration, and is supposed to have a fast (associated to a small parameter ε>0) and a slow behavior. By using a similar approach as developed in Yin and Zhang (Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Applications: A Singular Perturbation Approach, Applications of Mathematics, vol. 37, Springer, New York, 1998, Chaps. 1 and 3) the idea in this paper is to reduce the number of regimes by considering an averaged model in which the regimes within the same class are aggregated through the quasi-stationary distribution so that the different states in this class are replaced by a single one. The main goal is to show that the value function of the control problem for the system driven by the perturbed Markov chain converges to the value function of this limit control problem as ε goes to zero. This convergence is obtained by, roughly speaking, showing that the infimum and supremum limits of the value functions satisfy two optimality inequalities as ε goes to zero. This enables us to show the result by invoking a uniqueness argument, without needing any kind of Lipschitz continuity condition.

  7. Effects of blood glucose on delay discounting, food intake and counterregulation in lean and obese men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klement, Johanna; Kubera, Britta; Eggeling, Jonas; Rädel, Christin; Wagner, Christin; Park, Soyoung Q; Peters, Achim

    2018-03-01

    Delay discounting as a measure of impulsivity has been shown to be higher in obesity with an association of increased food intake. Moreover, obese humans showed a higher wanting for high-calorie food than lean men when blood glucose concentrations were low. First studies linking blood glucose levels to delay discounting yielded mixed results. We hypothesized that obese people - in comparison to lean men - have a relative lack of energy, especially when blood glucose levels are low, that results in higher levels of delay discounting, food intake and hormonal counterregulation. We investigated 20 lean and 20 obese healthy young men in a single-blind balanced cross-over design. With a standardized glucose clamp technique, subjects underwent a hypoglycemic state in one condition and a euglycemic state in the control condition. Regularly, blood was sampled for assessment of hormonal status, and questionnaires were filled out to assess delay discounting and symptom awareness. After normalizing blood glucose concentrations, subjects were free to eat from a standardized test buffet, followed by a snack test. Delay discounting was higher in obese than in lean men throughout experiments (p  0.1). Furthermore, the discounting performance did not correlate with food intake from the test buffet or snack test (p > 0.3). As a response to hypoglycemia, hormonal counterregulation was pronounced in both weight groups (p  0.5). Our data suggest that augmented delay discounting is a robust feature in obesity that is not linked to glucose levels or actual food intake. With our systematically controlled approach, combining performance in delay discounting with regard to distinct blood glucose levels, different weight groups, counterregulatory behavior and food intake, our results imply that delay discounting is not susceptible to fluctuations of blood glucose and do not support the assumption that a low body's energy content leads to increased impulsivity. Further

  8. A dual-process approach to exploring the role of delay discounting in obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Menna; Higgs, Suzanne; Maw, James; Lee, Michelle

    2016-08-01

    Delay discounting of financial rewards has been related to overeating and obesity. Neuropsychological evidence supports a dual-system account of both discounting and overeating behaviour where the degree of impulsive decision making is determined by the relative strength of reward desire and executive control. A dual-parameter model of discounting behaviour is consistent with this theory. In this study, the fit of the commonly used one-parameter model was compared to a new dual-parameter model for the first time in a sample of adults with wide ranging BMI. Delay discounting data from 79 males and females (males=26) across a wide age (M=28.44years (SD=8.81)) and BMI range (M=25.42 (SD=5.16)) was analysed. A dual-parameter model (saturating-hyperbolic; Doya, [Doya (2008) ]) was applied to the data and compared on model fit indices to the single-parameter model. Discounting was significantly greater in the overweight/obese participants using both models, however, the two parameter model showed a superior fit to data (pdual-system account of inter-temporal choice behaviour. The dual-parameter model showed superior fit to data and the two parameters were shown to be related yet distinct indices sensitive to differences between weight groups. Findings are discussed in terms of the impulsive reward and executive control systems that contribute to unhealthy food choice and within the context of obesity related research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A behavioral economic analysis of texting while driving: Delay discounting processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Miller, Kimberly; Foreman, Anne M; Wirth, Oliver

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine an impulsive decision-making process underlying texting while driving from a behavioral economic perspective. A sample of 108 college students completed a novel discounting task that presented participants with a hypothetical scenario in which, after receiving a text message while driving, they rated the likelihood of replying to a text message immediately versus waiting to reply for a specific period of time. Participants also completed a delay discounting task in which they made repeated hypothetical choices between obtaining a larger amount of money available after a delay and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the duration of the delay is a critical variable that strongly determines whether participants choose to wait to reply to a text message, and that the decrease in the likelihood of waiting as a function of delay is best described by a hyperbolic delay discounting function. The results also show that participants who self-reported higher frequency of texting while driving discounted the opportunity to reply to a text message at greater rates, whereas there was no relation between the rates of discounting of hypothetical monetary rewards and the frequency of texting while driving. The results support the conclusion that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Exploratory study on the effect of discount pricing strategies for new product introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Zaib, Nurul Afiqah; Bazin, Nor Erne Nazira; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna

    2013-04-01

    Rapid introduction of new product into the market has resulted in growing competition between retailers. Nowadays, retailers compete with one another in order to increase revenue and to maintain their position in the marketplace. This situation has forced the retailers to enhance their strategic management as well as creating competitive advantages. Generally, this situation can be observed in highly demanded product such as fashion goods and high technology electronic devices (smart phone, notebook). The consequence from the intense competition and new product introduction is difficulties in retailers pricing management. Retailers are now facing with complexity in making decisions on suitable pricing strategies and discount level for new product in association with the product life cycle. Thus, this research aims to investigate the suitable discount pricing strategies that can be integrated in every phase of product life cycle. This paper presents relationships between the discount pricing and the stages in the product life cycle in the form of conceptual diagram and mathematical expression. A system dynamic approach is used for developing the conceptual diagram and formulating the mathematical expression for the discount pricing strategies to visualize the relationship between discount pricing and product life cycle.

  11. Using 340B drug discounts to provide a financially sustainable medication discharge service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Timothy; Williams, Carla; Vranek, Kathryn; Mattingly, T Joseph

    2018-03-27

    The 340B Drug Pricing Program was intended to stretch federal resources by providing significant discounts to covered entities providing care to underserved populations. Program implementation and evidence of expanding services to higher income patients has brought more scrutiny and calls for elimination of the program. While additional review and reform may be warranted, profitability from 340B discounts enables covered entities to provide additional services that may not be feasible in absence of the program. This case report demonstrates one institution's use of 340B discounts to financially justify providing bedside medication delivery services for patients at the time of discharge from an inpatient admission. A simple financial model was developed using hospital data and inputs from available literature to estimate gross profit and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) with and without 340B discounts. Without the 340B drug price discounts, the service would operate at a financial loss, and further investigation must be done to determine whether other clinical or economic benefits would warrant discharge medication delivery at the institution. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Cross-cultural comparisons of delay discounting of gain and loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Keiko; Gang, Lili; Takahashi, Taiki

    2016-11-01

    People generally tend to discount future outcomes in favor of smaller but immediate gains (i.e., delay discounting). The present research examined cultural similarities and differences in delay discounting of gain and loss between Chinese and Japanese, based on a q-exponential model of intertemporal choice. Using a hypothetical situation, we asked 65 Japanese participants and 51 Chinese participants to choose between receiving (or paying) a different amount of money immediately or with a specified delay (1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, and 25 years). For each delay, participants completed a series of 40 binary choices for gain or loss. Regardless of cultures, the q-exponential model was the optimal model. Both impulsivity and time-inconsistency were higher for future gains than for future losses. In addition to the cultural similarities, Chinese participants discounted future gains and losses more steeply than did Japanese. In contrast, Japanese participants were more time-inconsistent in delay discounting than were Chinese, suggesting that the reduction in their subjective value depended relatively on delay.

  13. An alternative approach to calculating Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) in delay discounting research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Allison M; Kuang, Jinyi; Milhorn, Hannah; Yi, Richard

    2016-09-01

    Applied to delay discounting data, Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) provides an atheoretical index of the rate of delay discounting. The conventional method of calculating AUC, by summing the areas of the trapezoids formed by successive delay-indifference point pairings, does not account for the fact that most delay discounting tasks scale delay pseudoexponentially, that is, time intervals between delays typically get larger as delays get longer. This results in a disproportionate contribution of indifference points at long delays to the total AUC, with minimal contribution from indifference points at short delays. We propose two modifications that correct for this imbalance via a base-10 logarithmic transformation and an ordinal scaling transformation of delays. These newly proposed indices of discounting, AUClog d and AUCor d, address the limitation of AUC while preserving a primary strength (remaining atheoretical). Re-examination of previously published data provides empirical support for both AUClog d and AUCor d . Thus, we believe theoretical and empirical arguments favor these methods as the preferred atheoretical indices of delay discounting. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  14. Reliability of the Discounting Inventory: An extension into substance-use population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malesza Marta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent research introduced the Discounting Inventory that allows the measurement of individual differences in the delay, probabilistic, effort, and social discounting rates. The goal of this investigation was to determine several aspects of the reliability of the Discounting Inventory using the responses of 385 participants (200 non-smokers and 185 current-smokers. Two types of reliability are of interest. Internal consistency and test-retest stability. A secondary aim was to extend such reliability measures beyond the non-clinical participant. The current study aimed to measure the reliability of the DI in a nicotine-dependent individuals and non-nicotine-dependent individuals. It is concluded that the internal consistency of the DI is excellent, and that the test-retest reliability results suggest that items intended to measure three types of discounting were likely testing trait, rather than state, factors, regardless of whether “non-smokers” were included in, or excluded from, the analyses (probabilistic discounting scale scores being the exception. With these cautions in mind, however, the psychometric properties of the DI appear to be very good.

  15. Lifetime cost of everolimus vs axitinib in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who failed prior sunitinib therapy in the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, Allison; Sherman, Steven; Pal, Sumanta; Chua, Andrew; Gorritz, Magdaliz; Liu, Zhimei; Wang, Xufang; Culver, Kenneth; Casciano, Roman; Garrison, Louis P

    2015-03-01

    Everolimus and axitinib are approved in the US to treat patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after failure on sunitinib or sorafenib, and one prior systemic therapy (e.g., sunitinib), respectively. Two indirect comparisons performed to evaluate progression-free survival in patients treated with everolimus vs axitinib suggested similar efficacy between the two treatments. Therefore, this analysis compares the lifetime costs of these two therapies among sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients from a US payer perspective. A Markov model was developed to simulate a cohort of sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients and estimate the cost of treating patients with everolimus vs axitinib. The following health states were included: stable disease without adverse events (AEs), stable disease with AEs, disease progression (PD), and death. The model included the following resources: active treatments, post-progression treatments, adverse events, physician and nurse visits, scans and tests, and palliative care. Resource utilization inputs were derived from a US claims database analysis. Additionally, a 3% annual discount rate was applied to costs, and the robustness of the model results was tested by conducting sensitivity analyses, including those on dosing scheme and post-progression treatment costs. Base case results demonstrated that patients treated with everolimus cost an average of $12,985 (11%) less over their lifetimes than patients treated with axitinib. The primary difference in costs was related to active treatment, which was largely driven by axitinib's higher dose intensity. RESULTS remained consistent across sensitivity analyses for AE and PD treatment costs, as well as dose intensity and discount rates. The results suggest that everolimus likely leads to lower lifetime costs than axitinib for sunitinib-refractory advanced RCC patients in the US.

  16. Topological quantization of ensemble averages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil

    2009-01-01

    We define the current of a quantum observable and, under well-defined conditions, we connect its ensemble average to the index of a Fredholm operator. The present work builds on a formalism developed by Kellendonk and Schulz-Baldes (2004 J. Funct. Anal. 209 388) to study the quantization of edge currents for continuous magnetic Schroedinger operators. The generalization given here may be a useful tool to scientists looking for novel manifestations of the topological quantization. As a new application, we show that the differential conductance of atomic wires is given by the index of a certain operator. We also comment on how the formalism can be used to probe the existence of edge states

  17. Flexible time domain averaging technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ming; Lin, Jing; Lei, Yaguo; Wang, Xiufeng

    2013-09-01

    Time domain averaging(TDA) is essentially a comb filter, it cannot extract the specified harmonics which may be caused by some faults, such as gear eccentric. Meanwhile, TDA always suffers from period cutting error(PCE) to different extent. Several improved TDA methods have been proposed, however they cannot completely eliminate the waveform reconstruction error caused by PCE. In order to overcome the shortcomings of conventional methods, a flexible time domain averaging(FTDA) technique is established, which adapts to the analyzed signal through adjusting each harmonic of the comb filter. In this technique, the explicit form of FTDA is first constructed by frequency domain sampling. Subsequently, chirp Z-transform(CZT) is employed in the algorithm of FTDA, which can improve the calculating efficiency significantly. Since the signal is reconstructed in the continuous time domain, there is no PCE in the FTDA. To validate the effectiveness of FTDA in the signal de-noising, interpolation and harmonic reconstruction, a simulated multi-components periodic signal that corrupted by noise is processed by FTDA. The simulation results show that the FTDA is capable of recovering the periodic components from the background noise effectively. Moreover, it can improve the signal-to-noise ratio by 7.9 dB compared with conventional ones. Experiments are also carried out on gearbox test rigs with chipped tooth and eccentricity gear, respectively. It is shown that the FTDA can identify the direction and severity of the eccentricity gear, and further enhances the amplitudes of impulses by 35%. The proposed technique not only solves the problem of PCE, but also provides a useful tool for the fault symptom extraction of rotating machinery.

  18. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research: discount rate determination and the fossil fuel price effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-25

    In current and previous efforts, ECON has provided a preliminary economic assessment of a fusion research program. Part of this effort was the demonstration of a methodology for the estimation of reactor system costs and risk and for the treatment of program alternatives as a series of steps (tests) to buy information, thereby controlling program risk and providing a sound economic rationale for properly constructed research programs. The first phase of work also identified two areas which greatly affect the overall economic evaluation of fusion research and which warranted further study in the second phase. This led to the two tasks of the second phase reported herein: (1) discount rate determination and (2) evaluation of the effect of the expectation of the introduction of fusion power on current fossil fuel prices. In the first task, various conceptual measures of the social rate of discount were reviewed and critiqued. In the second task, a benefit area that had been called out by ECON was further examined. Long-range R and D yields short-term benefits in the form of lower nonrenewable energy resource prices because the R and D provides an expectation of future competition for the remaining reserves at the time of technology availability. ECON developed a model of optimal OPEC petroleum pricing as a function of the expectation of future competing technologies. It was shown that the existence of this expectation lowers the optimal OPEC export price and that accelerated technology R and D programs should provide further price decreases. These price reductions translate into benefits to the U.S. of at least a billion dollars.

  19. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Seminatural Wetlands and Activated Sludge Wastewater-Treatment Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Ilda; Franco, Daniel; Piccioni, Enrico; Favero, Laura; Mattiuzzo, Erika; Zanetto, Gabriele

    2008-01-01

    A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to evaluate the competitiveness of seminatural Free Water Surface (FWS) wetlands compared to traditional wastewater-treatment plants. Six scenarios of the service costs of three FWS wetlands and three different wastewater-treatment plants based on active sludge processes were compared. The six scenarios were all equally effective in their wastewater-treatment capacity. The service costs were estimated using real accounting data from an experimental wetland and by means of a market survey. Some assumptions had to be made to perform the analysis. A reference wastewater situation was established to solve the problem of the different levels of dilution that characterize the inflow water of the different systems; the land purchase cost was excluded from the analysis, considering the use of public land as shared social services, and an equal life span for both seminatural and traditional wastewater-treatment plants was set. The results suggest that seminatural systems are competitive with traditional biotechnological systems, with an average service cost improvement of 2.1-fold to 8-fold, according to the specific solution and discount rate. The main improvement factor was the lower maintenance cost of the seminatural systems, due to the self-regulating, low artificial energy inputs and the absence of waste to be disposed. In this work, only the waste-treatment capacity of wetlands was considered as a parameter for the economic competitiveness analysis. Other goods/services and environmental benefits provided by FWS wetlands were not considered.

  20. Time-driven activity based costing of total knee replacement surgery at a London teaching hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Alvin; Sabharwal, Sanjeeve; Akhtar, Kashif; Makaram, Navnit; Gupte, Chinmay M

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study was to conduct a time-driven activity based costing (TDABC) analysis of the clinical pathway for total knee replacement (TKR) and to determine where the major cost drivers lay. The in-patient pathway was prospectively mapped utilising a TDABC model, following 20 TKRs. The mean age for these patients was 73.4 years. All patients were ASA grade I or II and their mean BMI was 30.4. The 14 varus knees had a mean deformity of 5.32° and the six valgus knee had a mean deformity of 10.83°. Timings were prospectively collected as each patient was followed through the TKR pathway. Pre-operative costs including pre-assessment and joint school were £ 163. Total staff costs for admission and the operating theatre were £ 658. Consumables cost for the operating theatre were £ 1862. The average length of stay was 5.25 days at a total cost of £ 910. Trust overheads contributed £ 1651. The overall institutional cost of a 'noncomplex' TKR in patients without substantial medical co-morbidities was estimated to be £ 5422, representing a profit of £ 1065 based on a best practice tariff of £ 6487. The major cost drivers in the TKR pathway were determined to be theatre consumables, corporate overheads, overall ward cost and operating theatre staffing costs. Appropriate discounting of implant costs, reduction in length of stay by adopting an enhanced recovery programme and control of corporate overheads through the use of elective orthopaedic treatment centres are proposed approaches for reducing the overall cost of treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.