Prior use of durable medical equipment as a risk adjuster for health-based capitation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.C. van Kleef (Richard); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines a new risk adjuster for capitation payments to Dutch health plans, based on the prior use of durable medical equipment (DME). The essence is to classify users of DME in a previous year into clinically homogeneous classes and to apply the resulting classification as a

A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Sherri

2016-12-01

To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

2017-12-01

Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Disease-Specific Trends of Comorbidity Coding and Implications for Risk Adjustment in Hospital Administrative Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Nimptsch, Ulrike

2016-06-01

To investigate changes in comorbidity coding after the introduction of diagnosis related groups (DRGs) based prospective payment and whether trends differ regarding specific comorbidities. Nationwide administrative data (DRG statistics) from German acute care hospitals from 2005 to 2012. Observational study to analyze trends in comorbidity coding in patients hospitalized for common primary diseases and the effects on comorbidity-related risk of in-hospital death. Comorbidity coding was operationalized by Elixhauser diagnosis groups. The analyses focused on adult patients hospitalized for the primary diseases of heart failure, stroke, and pneumonia, as well as hip fracture. When focusing the total frequency of diagnosis groups per record, an increase in depth of coding was observed. Between-hospital variations in depth of coding were present throughout the observation period. Specific comorbidity increases were observed in 15 of the 31 diagnosis groups, and decreases in comorbidity were observed for 11 groups. In patients hospitalized for heart failure, shifts of comorbidity-related risk of in-hospital death occurred in nine diagnosis groups, in which eight groups were directed toward the null. Comorbidity-adjusted outcomes in longitudinal administrative data analyses may be biased by nonconstant risk over time, changes in completeness of coding, and between-hospital variations in coding. Accounting for such issues is important when the respective observation period coincides with changes in the reimbursement system or other conditions that are likely to alter clinical coding practice. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Do diagnosis-related group-based payments incentivise hospitals to adjust output mix?

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Li-Lin

2015-04-01

This study investigates whether the diagnosis-related group (DRG)-based payment method motivates hospitals to adjust output mix in order to maximise profits. The hypothesis is that when there is an increase in profitability of a DRG, hospitals will increase the proportion of that DRG (own-price effects) and decrease those of other DRGs (cross-price effects), except in cases where there are scope economies in producing two different DRGs. This conjecture is tested in the context of the case payment scheme (CPS) under Taiwan's National Health Insurance programme over the period of July 1999 to December 2004. To tackle endogeneity of DRG profitability and treatment policy, a fixed-effects three-stage least squares method is applied. The results support the hypothesised own-price and cross-price effects, showing that DRGs which share similar resources appear to be complements rather substitutes. For-profit hospitals do not appear to be more responsive to DRG profitability, possibly because of their institutional characteristics and bonds with local communities. The key conclusion is that DRG-based payments will encourage a type of 'product-range' specialisation, which may improve hospital efficiency in the long run. However, further research is needed on how changes in output mix impact patient access and pay-outs of health insurance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs based on the minimum data set for home care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hirdes John P

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC. Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a client covariates only; b client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI. Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did

Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs) based on the minimum data set for home care

Science.gov (United States)

Dalby, Dawn M; Hirdes, John P; Fries, Brant E

2005-01-01

Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs) based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC). Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA) in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a) client covariates only; b) client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP) to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c) client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI). Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did substantially affect the

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Death by suicide and other externally caused injuries following a cancer diagnosis: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamauchi, Takashi; Inagaki, Masatoshi; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Iwasaki, Motoki; Inoue, Manami; Akechi, Tatsuo; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2014-09-01

There have been very few population-based prospective studies that have investigated the risks of deaths by suicide and other externally caused injuries (ECIs) among cancer patients in an Asian population. This study investigated whether the risk of death by both suicide and ECIs increases during the first year following the initial diagnosis of cancer. Data were analyzed from a population-based cohort of Japanese residents between 1990 and 2010, collected during the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted risk ratios (RRs) for both suicide and ECI deaths. To adjust for unmeasured confounding factors, case-crossover analyses were conducted for all patients with cancer who died by suicide and ECIs. A population-based cohort of 102,843 Japanese residents was established. During the follow-up period, there were 34 suicides and 48 ECI deaths among patients with cancer, as compared with 527 suicides and 707 ECI deaths among those who did not have cancer. Analyses revealed that those who were newly diagnosed with cancer were at a greatly increased risk of death by suicide and ECIs within the first year after their diagnosis (suicide RR = 23.9, 95% CI: 13.8-41.6; ECI RR = 18.8, 95% CI: 11.4-31.0). Furthermore, the case-crossover analyses generally confirmed the results of the Poisson regressions. The risks of suicide and ECI deaths within the first year after a cancer diagnosis were higher than those among cancer-free populations. A diagnosis of cancer is a critical experience that may increase the risk of fatal outcomes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Clinically diagnosed insomnia and risk of all-cause and diagnosis-specific sickness absence: a nationwide Swedish prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansson, Catarina; Alexanderson, Kristina; Kecklund, Göran; Åkerstedt, Torbjörn

2013-11-01

Insomnia is a large health problem. In some prior studies, positive associations between insomnia symptoms and sickness absence have been observed. There is, however, no previous nationwide cohort study of clinically diagnosed insomnia and risk of incident sickness absence. Prospective nationwide cohort study based on Swedish population-based registers including all 4,956,358 individuals registered as living in Sweden on 31 December 2004/2005, aged 17-64 years, not on disability pension, old-age pension or on-going sickness absence. Those having insomnia inpatient or outpatient care, defined as having at least one admission/specialist visit with a main or secondary diagnosis of disorders of initiating and maintaining sleep [insomnias] (ICD-10: G47.0) during 2000/2001-2005, were compared to those with no such care. All-cause and diagnosis-specific incident sickness absence were followed during 2006-2010. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression. In models adjusted for prior sickness absence, socio-demographic factors and inpatient and specialized outpatient care, associations between insomnia and increased risks of all-cause sickness absence (IRR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35) and sickness absence due to mental diagnoses (IRR 1.75, 95% CI 1.36-2.25) were observed. After further adjustment for insomnia medications these associations disappeared. No associations between insomnia and risk of sickness absence due to cancer, circulatory or musculoskeletal diagnoses, or injuries, were observed. In this nationwide cohort study, we observed increased risks of all-cause sickness absence and sickness absence due to mental diagnoses after adjustment for several potential confounders that disappeared after further adjustment for insomnia medications.

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... that are used in the development and application of a risk adjustment payment model. (b) Data... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PROGRAM Payments to Medicare Advantage Organizations § 422... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may...

Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

2013-01-01

Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Randall P. Ellis

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems.

Clinically Diagnosed Insomnia and Risk of All-Cause and Diagnosis-Specific Disability Pension: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catarina Jansson

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Insomnia and disability pension are major health problems, but few population-based studies have examined the association between insomnia and risk of disability pension. Methods. We conducted a prospective nationwide cohort study based on Swedish population-based registers including all 5,028,922 individuals living in Sweden on December 31, 2004/2005, aged 17–64 years, and not on disability or old age pension. Those having at least one admission/specialist visit with a diagnosis of disorders of initiating and maintaining sleep (insomnias (ICD-10: G47.0 during 2000/2001–2005 were compared to those with no such inpatient/outpatient care. All-cause and diagnosis-specific incident disability pension were followed from 2006 to 2010. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs were estimated by Cox regression. Results. In models adjusted for prior sickness absence, sociodemographic factors, and inpatient/specialized outpatient care, associations between insomnia and increased risks of all-cause disability pension (IRR 1.35, 95% CI 1.09–1.67 and disability pension due to mental diagnoses (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.38–2.50 were observed. After further adjustment for insomnia medications these associations disappeared. No associations between insomnia and risk of disability pension due to cancer, circulatory, or musculoskeletal diagnoses were observed. Conclusion. Insomnia seems to be positively associated with all-cause disability pension and disability pension due to mental diagnoses.

Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

Science.gov (United States)

Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

2003-07-01

Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

Science.gov (United States)

Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

2000-02-01

In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

OpenAIRE

Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

2017-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

Spatial implications of covariate adjustment on patterns of risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabel, Clive Eric; Wilson, Jeff Gaines; Kingham, Simon

2007-01-01

Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control...... for covariates such as deprivation, there has been limited investigative work on the spatial movement of risk at the intraurban scale due to the adjustment. It is important that the nature of any spatial relocation be well understood as a relocation to areas of increased risk may also introduce additional...... localised factors that influence the exposure-response relationship. This paper examines the spatial patterns of relative risk and clusters of hospitalisations based on an illustrative small-area example from Christchurch, New Zealand. A four-stage test of the spatial relocation effects of covariate...

The risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors: A South African case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mkhethwa Mkhize

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research was to examine the effects of female directors on the risk-adjusted performance of firms listed on the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (the JSE. The theoretical underpinning for the relationship between representation of female directors and the risk-adjusted performance of companies was based on institutional theory. The hypothesis that there is no difference between the risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors and that of companies without female directors was rejected. Implications of the results are discussed and suggestions for future research presented.

Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

1994-01-01

The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

Risk of subsequent primary malignancies after dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans diagnosis: a national study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurlander, David E; Martires, Kathryn J; Chen, Yanwen; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Bordeaux, Jeremy S

2013-05-01

Patients frequently live many years after diagnosis of dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP). We sought to determine the risk of subsequent primary malignancy (SPM) after DFSP diagnosis. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1973-2008) for 3734 patients with DFSP, we compared the risk of developing 14 SPMs (12 most prevalent cancers in the United States plus other nonepithelial and soft tissue) relative to risk in the general population of same sex, race, and age and year of diagnosis. Patients given the diagnosis of DFSP had an overall increased risk of SPM (observed:expected [O:E], 1.20; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.04-1.39), with much of the overall increased risk attributable to increased risk of nonepithelial skin cancer (O:E, 9.94; 95% CI, 3.38-22.30). Specifically, female patients with DFSP were at increased risk of other nonepithelial skin cancer (O:E, 14.50; 95% CI, 3.46-38.98), melanoma (O:E, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.02-5.35), and breast cancer (O:E, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.00-2.00). Male patients were not at increased overall risk (O:E, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.96-1.44) of SPM or at increased risk of any specific malignancy (P > .05) adjusted for multiplicity of t tests. Surveillance bias may have led to increased rates and earlier detection of primary malignances in patients with DFSP compared with the general population. Individual data that may reveal shared environmental causes of DFSP and SPM were unavailable. Patients with DFSP are at increased risk of a number of SPMs. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Portfolio balancing and risk adjusted values under constrained budget conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

1996-01-01

For a given hydrocarbon exploration opportunity, the influences of value, cost, success probability and corporate risk tolerance provide an optimal working interest that should be taken in the opportunity in order to maximize the risk adjusted value. When several opportunities are available, but when the total budget is insufficient to take optimal working interest in each, an analytic procedure is given for optimizing the risk adjusted value of the total portfolio; the relevant working interests are also derived based on a cost exposure constraint. Several numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit the use of the method under different budget conditions, and with different numbers of available opportunities. When value, cost, success probability, and risk tolerance are uncertain for each and every opportunity, the procedure is generalized to allow determination of probable optimal risk adjusted value for the total portfolio and, at the same time, the range of probable working interest that should be taken in each opportunity is also provided. The result is that the computations of portfolio balancing can be done quickly in either deterministic or probabilistic manners on a small calculator, thereby providing rapid assessments of opportunities and their worth to a corporation. (Author)

Risk of primary non-breast cancer after female breast cancer by age at diagnosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mellemkjær, Lene; Christensen, Jane; Frederiksen, Kirsten Skovsgaard

2011-01-01

Women diagnosed with breast cancer at young age have been shown to be at higher risk of developing a new primary cancer than women diagnosed at older ages, but little is known about whether adjustment for calendar year of breast cancer diagnosis, length of follow-up, and/or breast cancer treatment...

Competition Leverage : How the Demand Side Affects Optimal Risk Adjustment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijlsma, M.; Boone, J.; Zwart, Gijsbert

2011-01-01

We study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First, we find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences

Australian diagnosis related groups: Drivers of complexity adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Terri; Dimitropoulos, Vera; Madden, Richard; Gillett, Steve

2015-11-01

In undertaking a major revision to the Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Group (ARDRG) classification, we set out to contrast Australia's approach to using data on additional (not principal) diagnoses with major international approaches in splitting base or Adjacent Diagnosis Related Groups (ADRGs). Comparative policy analysis/narrative review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on international approaches to use of additional (secondary) diagnoses in the development of Australian and international DRG systems. European and US approaches to characterise complexity of inpatient care are well-documented, providing useful points of comparison with Australia's. Australia, with good data sources, has continued to refine its national DRG classification using increasingly sophisticated approaches. Hospital funders in Australia and in other systems are often under pressure from provider groups to expand classifications to reflect clinical complexity. DRG development in most healthcare systems reviewed here reflects four critical factors: these socio-political factors, the quality and depth of the coded data available to characterise the mix of cases in a healthcare system, the size of the underlying population, and the intended scope and use of the classification. Australia's relatively small national population has constrained the size of its DRG classifications, and development has been concentrated on inpatient care in public hospitals. Development of casemix classifications in health care is driven by both technical and socio-political factors. Use of additional diagnoses to adjust for patient complexity and cost needs to respond to these in each casemix application. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breast cancer risk after diagnosis by screening mammography of nonproliferative or proliferative benign breast disease: a study from a population-based screening program.

Science.gov (United States)

Castells, Xavier; Domingo, Laia; Corominas, Josep María; Torá-Rocamora, Isabel; Quintana, María Jesús; Baré, Marisa; Vidal, Carmen; Natal, Carmen; Sánchez, Mar; Saladié, Francina; Ferrer, Joana; Vernet, Mar; Servitja, Sonia; Rodríguez-Arana, Ana; Roman, Marta; Espinàs, Josep Alfons; Sala, María

2015-01-01

Benign breast disease increases the risk of breast cancer. This association has scarcely been evaluated in the context of breast cancer screening programs although it is a prevalent finding in mammography screening. We assessed the association of distinct categories of benign breast disease and subsequent risk of breast cancer, as well as the influence of a family history of breast cancer. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 545,171 women aged 50-69 years biennially screened for breast cancer in Spain. The median of follow-up was 6.1 years. The age-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of breast cancer for women with benign breast disease, histologically classified into nonproliferative and proliferative disease with and without atypia, compared with women without benign breast disease was estimated by Poisson regression analysis. A stratified analysis by family history of breast cancer was performed in a subsample. All tests were two-sided. The age-adjusted RR of breast cancer after diagnosis of benign breast disease was 2.51 (95 % CI: 2.14-2.93) compared with women without benign breast disease. The risk was higher in women with proliferative disease with atypia (RR = 4.56, 95 % CI: 2.06-10.07) followed by those with proliferative disease without atypia (RR = 3.58; 95 % CI = 2.61-4.91). Women with nonproliferative disease and without a family history of breast cancer remained also at increased risk of cancer (OR = 2.23, 95 % CI: 1.86-2.68). An increased risk of breast cancer was observed among screening participants with proliferative or nonproliferative benign breast disease, regardless of a family history of breast cancer. This information may be useful to explore risk-based screening strategies.

Introducing risk adjustment and free health plan choice in employer-based health insurance: Evidence from Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilny, Adam; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R

2017-12-01

To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

2018-04-17

The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Refined estimates of local recurrence risks by DCIS score adjusting for clinicopathological features: a combined analysis of ECOG-ACRIN E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovitch, E; Gray, R; Baehner, F L; Sutradhar, R; Crager, M; Gu, S; Nofech-Mozes, S; Badve, S S; Hanna, W; Hughes, L L; Wood, W C; Davidson, N E; Paszat, L; Shak, S; Sparano, J A; Solin, L J

2018-06-01

Better tools are needed to estimate local recurrence (LR) risk after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for DCIS. The DCIS score (DS) was validated as a predictor of LR in E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort (ODC) after BCS. We combined data from E5194 and ODC adjusting for clinicopathological factors to provide refined estimates of the 10-year risk of LR after treatment by BCS alone. Data from E5194 and ODC were combined. Patients with positive margins or multifocality were excluded. Identical Cox regression models were fit for each study. Patient-specific meta-analysis was used to calculate precision-weighted estimates of 10-year LR risk by DS, age, tumor size and year of diagnosis. The combined cohort includes 773 patients. The DS and age at diagnosis, tumor size and year of diagnosis provided independent prognostic information on the 10-year LR risk (p ≤ 0.009). Hazard ratios from E5194 and ODC cohorts were similar for the DS (2.48, 1.95 per 50 units), tumor size ≤ 1 versus  > 1-2.5 cm (1.45, 1.47), age ≥ 50 versus  15%) 10-year LR risk after BCS alone compared to utilization of DS alone or clinicopathological factors alone. The combined analysis provides refined estimates of 10-year LR risk after BCS for DCIS. Adding information on tumor size and age at diagnosis to the DS adjusting for year of diagnosis provides improved LR risk estimates to guide treatment decision making.

Statin use before diabetes diagnosis and risk of microvascular disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Sune F; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The role of statins in the development of microvascular disease in patients with diabetes is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that statin use increases the risk of diabetic retinopathy, diabetic neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, and gangrene of the foot in individuals with diabetes...... the cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy, diabetic neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, or gangrene of the foot in statin users versus non-statin users. We analysed data with Cox regression models, adjusted for covariates including sex, age at diabetes diagnosis, and method of diabetes diagnosis. To address...... diabetic neuropathy, 1248 developed diabetic nephropathy, and 2392 developed gangrene of the foot. Compared with non-statin users, statin users had a lower cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy (hazard ratio 0·60, 95% CI 0·54-0·66; pdiabetic neuropathy (0·66, 0·57-0·75; p

Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

2001-01-01

In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

Risk of head-and-neck cancer following a diagnosis of severe cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Denmark.

Science.gov (United States)

Svahn, M F; Munk, C; Jensen, S M; von Buchwald, C; Frederiksen, K; Kjaer, S K

2016-07-01

Women with a history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 including adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN3/AIS) may be more prone to develop cancers of the ano-genital region and head-and-neck cancers. The current literature is, however, limited. We established a nationwide cohort of approximately 2,500,000 Danish women born in 1918-1990. By linking the cohort to population-based health registries, we obtained information on CIN3/AIS, cancer, migration, death, education, and smoking. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between CIN3/AIS and risk of head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). HRs were presented for any HNSCC and for four subgroups categorized by their anticipated degree of association with human papillomavirus (HPV). A history of CIN3/AIS was significantly associated with an increased overall relative risk of HNSCC after adjustment for year of birth, attained age, and length of education. The risk was especially high for sites anticipated to be strongly associated with HPV (e.g. base of tongue, tonsils) (HR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.84-3.36). Lower risks were found for sites anticipated to be not or weakly associated with HPV (e.g. nasal cavity, middle ear, sinuses) (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.61-2.76). Women with a history of CIN3/AIS have a significantly higher risk of HNSCC than women without such a history. The increased relative risk persisted for at least 20years after the CIN3/AIS diagnosis. Women with CIN3/AIS may be more susceptible to the consequences of HPV and/or may have higher risk behavior, such as smoking. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

2016-08-01

To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

2015-03-01

A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

Work related physical activity and risk of a hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or flutter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frost, L; Frost, P; Vestergaard, P

2005-01-01

of atrial fibrillation or flutter associated with sedentary work in a standing position, light workload, or heavy workload in men or women. CONCLUSION: No evidence was found of an association between physical activities during working hours and risk of a hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation......, Cancer, and Health Study. The physical strain during working hours was categorised as sedentary, light, or heavy, and analysed using proportional hazard models. Subjects were followed up in the Danish National Registry of Patients and in the Danish Civil Registration System. RESULTS: During follow up...... (mean 5.7 years) a hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation or flutter occurred in 305 men and 113 women. When using the risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter associated with sedentary work at a sitting position as a reference, no excess risk (unadjusted as well as adjusted) was found...

Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

2018-02-21

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p reimbursement (p reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied significantly by state (p ≤ 0.01). Risk adjustment incorporating specific comorbidities demonstrated better performance than with use of DRG alone (r = 0.22 versus 0.15). Our results suggest that the proposed SHFFT bundled payment model should use more robust risk-adjustment methods to ensure that providers are reimbursed fairly and that

PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

2001-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

Risk factors for pancreatic cancer and early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamao, Kenji; Mizuno, Nobumasa; Sawaki, Akira; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Chang, K.J.

2008-01-01

This paper describes the strategy for improving the poor prognosis of the pancreatic (P) cancer by its early imaging diagnosis followed by resection, based on recent findings on its high risk group. Epidemiological studies have revealed that patients with diabetes, chronic pancreatitis, intraductal papillary-mucious tumor, P cyst, familial history of P cancer, and hereditary P cancer syndrome are involved in the high risk group of P cancer. Imaging diagnosis with CT and/or endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) followed by histological confirmation for resection can be a useful approach to improve the prognosis in those high risk, asymptomatic individuals with abnormal levels of P enzyme and tumor marker, and with US findings of P ductal dilation and cyst. The guideline 2006 for P cancer by Japan Pancreas Society shows the algorithm leading to the final diagnosis for the positive high risk group: firstly, CT and/or MRCP (MR cholangiopancreatography (CP)); or, in case of uncertainty, EUS and/or ERCP (E retrograde CP) and/or PET; and finally, cytological, histological diagnosis. The newer approach proposed recently for the group is: multi detector row (MD)-CT and EUS; then cytodiagnosis guided by ERCP and/or with fine needle aspiration by EUS, also a promising early diagnosis. As well, molecular biological approaches are supposedly useful for the future diagnosis. (R.T.)

Underwriters' view of risk - An adjuster's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews how a risk assessment is performed by an insurance adjuster to determine rates and insurability of a client. It provides a historical perspective on insurance and how information systems are used to monitor past claims to determine future risk. Although this paper does not specifically address the oil and gas industry, it is informative in identifying how insurance rates are determined and risk assessments for various oil and gas operations are performed

Appendectomy and Risk of Subsequent Diverticular Disease Requiring Hospitalization: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sköldberg, Filip; Olén, Ola; Ekbom, Anders; Schmidt, Peter T

2018-07-01

Appendicitis and acute diverticulitis share clinical features and are both influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Appendectomy has been positively associated with diverticular disease in hospital-based case-control studies. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in a population-based setting, whether appendectomy, with or without appendicitis, is associated with an altered risk of hospitalization with diverticular disease. This was a population-based case-control study. The study was based on national healthcare and population registers. We studied 41,988 individuals hospitalized between 2000 and 2010 with a first-time diagnosis of colonic diverticular disease and 413,115 matched control subjects. The association between appendectomy with or without appendicitis and diverticular disease was investigated by conditional logistic regression, including a model adjusting for hospital use. A total of 2813 cases (6.7%) and 19,037 controls (4.6%) had a previous record of appendectomy (appendectomy with acute appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.31 (95% CI, 1.24-1.39); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.23-1.38)). Appendectomy was most strongly associated with an increased risk of diverticular disease within 1 year (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 2.26 (95% CI, 1.61-3.16); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 3.98 (95% CI, 2.71-5.83)), but the association was still present ≥20 years after appendectomy (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.22 (95% CI, 1.12-1.32); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.19 (95% CI, 1.10-1.28)). Detailed clinical information on the cases was not available. There were unmeasured potential confounders, such as smoking and dietary factors. The findings are consistent with a hypothesis of appendectomy causing an increased risk of diverticular disease, for example, by affecting the mucosal immune system or the gut microbiome. However, several other mechanisms may contribute to, or account for, the positive association

[Remuneration distribution - should morbidity-dependent overall remuneration also be distributed after adjustments for morbidity?].

Science.gov (United States)

Walendzik, A; Trottmann, M; Leonhardt, R; Wasem, J

2013-04-01

In the 2009 reform of the German collective remuneration system for outpatient medical care, on the level of overall remuneration, the morbidity risk was transferred to the health funds fulfilling a long-term demand of physicians. Nevertheless not transferring morbidity adjustment to the levels of physician groups and singular practices can lead to budgets not related to patient needs and to incentives for risk selection for individual doctors. The systematics of the distribution of overall remuneration in the German remuneration system for outpatient care are analysed focusing on the aspect of morbidity adjustment. Using diagnostic and pharmaceutical information of about half a million insured subjects, a risk adjustment model able to predict individual expenditures for outpatient care for different provider groups is presented. This model enables to additively split the individual care burden into several parts attributed to different physician groups. Conditions for the use of the model in the distribution of overall remuneration between physician groups are developed. A simulation of the use of diagnoses-based risk adjustment in standard service volumes then highlights the conditions for a successfull installation of standard service volumes representing a higher degree of risk adjustment. The presented estimation model is generally applicable for the distribution of overall remuneration to different physician groups. The simulation of standard service volumes using diagnosis-based risk adjustment does not provide a more accurate prediction of the expenditures on the level of physician practices than the age-related calculation currently used in the German remuneration system for outpatient medical care. Using elements of morbidity-based risk adjustment the current German collective system for outpatient medical care could be transformed towards a higher degree of distributional justice concerning medical care for patients and more appropriate incentives

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The relationship between the C-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: a Monte Carlo Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Reeves, Mathew J

2013-03-01

Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of 3 factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card.

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-03-01

This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.

Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Oza, Ajay; Donohue, Fionnuala; Johnson, Howard; Cunney, Robert

2016-01-01

As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed. PMID:27541730

Increased risk of acute angle closure in retinitis pigmentosa: a population-based case-control study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Chieh Ko

Full Text Available To investigate the association between retinitis pigmentosa (RP and acute angle closure during a 15-year follow-up period.Using the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000, we identified 382 RP patients based on the diagnostic code of RP (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM 362.74 made during 1996-2010, excluding subjects under age of 20 years at diagnosis or subjects undergoing lens extraction before the index date. The control group included 3820 randomly selected non-RP subjects matched with the RP patients in age, gender and the index date of diagnosis. The incidence of acute angle closure during the study period was observed based on an ICD-9-CM code of 365.22. Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test was used to determine the odds ratio (OR of having acute angle closure in RP patients.The mean age at the diagnosis of RP was 51.1 years (standard deviation [SD] 16.7. Acute angle closure occurred in 5 RP patients (1.3% and in 15 controls (0.4%. The mean age with the acute angle closure was 53.3 years (SD 8.0 in RP patients and 64.6 years (SD 8.4 in controls (P = 0.015. After adjusting for age, gender and comorbid disorders, RP patients had 3.64-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-10.25, P<0.001 greater odds of having acute angle closure. After stratification for gender and age, the risk of acute angle closure in RP was higher in patients under age of 60 years (adjusted OR 11.84; 95% CI, 2.84-49.48 and male patients (adjusted OR 19.36; 95% CI, 3.43-109.40 (both P = 0.001.RP patients had increased risk of acute angle closure than controls. Contrary to the fact that angle closure disease is more prevalent in elderly females in general population, acute angle closure attack occurred earlier in life and the risk was higher in males among RP patients.

Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

2005-09-15

Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data.

Public Reporting of Primary Care Clinic Quality: Accounting for Sociodemographic Factors in Risk Adjustment and Performance Comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Wholey, Douglas R; Finch, Michael; Kreiger, Rob; Reeves, David

2018-01-03

Performance measurement and public reporting are increasingly being used to compare clinic performance. Intended consequences include quality improvement, value-based payment, and consumer choice. Unintended consequences include reducing access for riskier patients and inappropriately labeling some clinics as poor performers, resulting in tampering with stable care processes. Two analytic steps are used to maximize intended and minimize unintended consequences. First, risk adjustment is used to reduce the impact of factors outside providers' control. Second, performance categorization is used to compare clinic performance using risk-adjusted measures. This paper examines the effects of methodological choices, such as risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors in risk adjustment and accounting for patients clustering by clinics in performance categorization, on clinic performance comparison for diabetes care, vascular care, asthma, and colorectal cancer screening. The population includes all patients with commercial and public insurance served by clinics in Minnesota. Although risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors has a significant effect on quality, it does not explain much of the variation in quality. In contrast, taking into account the nesting of patients within clinics in performance categorization has a substantial effect on performance comparison.

Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

Science.gov (United States)

Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

2009-02-01

Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, Michael J; Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-10-31

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment.

Morbidity and risk of subsequent diagnosis of HIV

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard, Ole S; Lohse, Nicolai; Østergaard, Lars Jørgen

2012-01-01

Early identification of persons with undiagnosed HIV infection is an important health care issue. We examined associations between diseases diagnosed in hospitals and risk of subsequent HIV diagnosis.......Early identification of persons with undiagnosed HIV infection is an important health care issue. We examined associations between diseases diagnosed in hospitals and risk of subsequent HIV diagnosis....

The need for unique risk adjustment for surgical site infections at a high-volume, tertiary care center with inherent high-risk colorectal procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorgun, E; Benlice, C; Hammel, J; Hull, T; Stocchi, L

2017-08-01

The aim of the present study was to create a unique risk adjustment model for surgical site infection (SSI) in patients who underwent colorectal surgery (CRS) at the Cleveland Clinic (CC) with inherent high risk factors by using a nationwide database. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried to identify patients who underwent CRS between 2005 and 2010. Initially, CC cases were identified from all NSQIP data according to case identifier and separated from the other NSQIP centers. Demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes were compared. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between SSI and center-related factors. A total of 70,536 patients met the inclusion criteria and underwent CRS, 1090 patients (1.5%) at the CC and 69,446 patients (98.5%) at other centers. Male gender, work-relative value unit, diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease, pouch formation, open surgery, steroid use, and preoperative radiotherapy rates were significantly higher in the CC cases. Overall morbidity and individual postoperative complication rates were found to be similar in the CC and other centers except for the following: organ-space SSI and sepsis rates (higher in the CC cases); and pneumonia and ventilator dependency rates (higher in the other centers). After covariate adjustment, the estimated degree of difference between the CC and other institutions with respect to organ-space SSI was reduced (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.08-1.77). The unique risk adjustment strategy may provide center-specific comprehensive analysis, especially for hospitals that perform inherently high-risk procedures. Higher surgical complexity may be the reason for increased SSI rates in the NSQIP at tertiary care centers.

Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

2016-01-01

Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk-adjusted capitation funding models for chronic disease in Australia: alternatives to casemix funding.

Science.gov (United States)

Antioch, K M; Walsh, M K

2002-01-01

Under Australian casemix funding arrangements that use Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) the average price is policy based, not benchmarked. Cost weights are too low for State-wide chronic disease services. Risk-adjusted Capitation Funding Models (RACFM) are feasible alternatives. A RACFM was developed for public patients with cystic fibrosis treated by an Australian Health Maintenance Organization (AHMO). Adverse selection is of limited concern since patients pay solidarity contributions via Medicare levy with no premium contributions to the AHMO. Sponsors paying premium subsidies are the State of Victoria and the Federal Government. Cost per patient is the dependent variable in the multiple regression. Data on DRG 173 (cystic fibrosis) patients were assessed for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, structural stability and functional form. Stepwise linear regression excluded non-significant variables. Significant variables were 'emergency' (1276.9), 'outlier' (6377.1), 'complexity' (3043.5), 'procedures' (317.4) and the constant (4492.7) (R(2)=0.21, SE=3598.3, F=14.39, Probpayment (constant). The model explained 21% of the variance in cost per patient. The payment rate is adjusted by a best practice annual admission rate per patient. The model is a blended RACFM for in-patient, out-patient, Hospital In The Home, Fee-For-Service Federal payments for drugs and medical services; lump sum lung transplant payments and risk sharing through cost (loss) outlier payments. State and Federally funded home and palliative services are 'carved out'. The model, which has national application via Coordinated Care Trials and by Australian States for RACFMs may be instructive for Germany, which plans to use Australian DRGs for casemix funding. The capitation alternative for chronic disease can improve equity, allocative efficiency and distributional justice. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) is a promising alternative classification system for capitation arrangements.

Myastenia and risk of cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Emil Arnspang; Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between having non-thymoma myasthenia and the risk of extra-thymic cancer in a population-based setting. METHODS: A nationwide case-control study was conducted in Denmark based on medical registries. The study included all cases with a first time...... diagnosis of cancer during 2000-2009. Each case was matched by birth year and gender with eight population controls using risk set sampling. Subjects with myasthenia were identified through a validated register-based algorithm. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute crude and adjusted odds...... risk of overall cancer (OR 1.1; 95% CI 0.9-1.4). Adjusted ORs for major cancer sites were also close to unity, whereas an elevated risk of lymphomas was observed (OR 2.0; 95% CI 0.8-5.5). Early-onset myasthenia was associated with a slightly increased OR for overall cancer (1.5; 95% CI 1...

Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

2016-02-01

Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

Perinatal risk factors in offenders with severe personality disorder: a population-based investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fazel, Seena; Bakiyeva, Liliya; Cnattingius, Sven; Grann, Martin; Hultman, Christina M; Lichtenstein, Paul; Geddes, John R

2012-10-01

Although perinatal factors are associated with the development of several psychiatric disorders, it is unknown whether these factors are linked with personality disorder. Cases of personality disorder were drawn from a national registry of all forensic psychiatric evaluations (n = 150). Two control groups were used: (1) A sample of forensic evaluations without any psychiatric disorder (n = 97) allowing for a nested case-control investigation; and (2) A population-based sample matched by age and gender with no history of psychiatric hospitalization (n = 1498). Prematurity (personality disorder, both in the nested and the population-based case-control comparisons with adjusted odds ratios (OR) for this risk factor ranging from 2 to 4. Asphyxia (adjusted OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.4-4.1) and complicated delivery (adjusted OR = 1.5, 1.0-2.1) were associated with personality disorder in the population-based study, and the former remained significant in multivariate models. Overall, perinatal complications were found to be associated with a later diagnosis of personality disorder in this selected sample. As with other psychiatric disorders where such associations have been demonstrated, changes during the perinatal period may lead to abnormal brain development and function.

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

Science.gov (United States)

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

Science.gov (United States)

Antioch, K; Walsh, M

2000-01-01

This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

Unemployment risk and income change after testicular cancer diagnosis: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rottenberg, Yakir; Ratzon, Navah Z; Jacobs, Jeremy M; Cohen, Miraim; Peretz, Tamar; de Boer, Angela G E M

2016-01-01

Among patients with cancer, returning to full working may serve as an indicator for return to normal lifestyle following illness, as opposed to unemployment or shifting to part-time work. The aim of the project was to clarify the association between unemployment risk and decreased income at 4 years after the diagnosis of testicular cancer (TC). A case control in a cohort study includes baseline measurement of people participating in the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics 1995 National Census, and follow-up until 2011. Cancer incidence, employment status, and income level were ascertained through the Israel Cancer Registry and Tax Authority, respectively. A matched group was sampled from the population in the census. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess odds ratios (ORs) for study׳s outcomes, while controlling for age, ethnicity, education, and socioeconomic and employment status at 2 years before diagnosis. A total of 113 cases of TC and 468 persons in the matched group were included in the study after excluding persons who died during the study period. No association was found between TC and subsequent risk after the 4 years of unemployment (OR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.65-1.95) or decreased income (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 0.84-2.36). Predictors of subsequent unemployment were unemployment 2 years before diagnosis (OR = 6.91, 95% CI: 4.39-10.86) and increasing age (OR = 1.03 per year, 95% CI: 1.01-1.06). TC survivorship is not associated with subsequent unemployment or decreased income at 4 years after diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rational Multi-curve Models with Counterparty-risk Valuation Adjustments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Crépey, Stéphane; Macrina, Andrea; Nguyen, Tuyet Mai

2016-01-01

We develop a multi-curve term structure set-up in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to London Interbank Offer Rate swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor log-normal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market da...... with regulatory obligations. In order to compute counterparty-risk valuation adjustments, such as credit valuation adjustment, we show how default intensity processes with rational form can be derived. We flesh out our study by applying the results to a basis swap contract....... with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship between the models developed and calibrated under a risk-neutral measure Q and their consistent equivalence class under the real-world probability measure P. The consistent P-pricing models are applied to compute the risk exposures which may be required to comply...

Comorbidities in patients with gout prior to and following diagnosis: case-control study

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Chang-Fu; Grainge, Matthew J; Mallen, Christian; Zhang, Weiya; Doherty, Michael

2016-01-01

Objectives To determine the burden of comorbidities in patients with gout at diagnosis and the risk of developing new comorbidities post diagnosis. Methods There were 39 111 patients with incident gout and 39 111 matched controls identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Data-link. The risk of comorbidity before (ORs) and after the diagnosis of gout (HRs) were estimated, adjusted for age, sex, diagnosis year, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption. Results Gout was associated with adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of 1.39 (1.34 to 1.45), 1.89 (1.76 to 2.03) and 2.51 (2.19 to 2.86) for the Charlson index of 1–2, 3–4 and ≥5, respectively. Cardiovascular and genitourinary diseases, in addition to hyperlipidaemia, hypothyroidism, anaemia, psoriasis, chronic pulmonary diseases, osteoarthritis and depression, were associated with a higher risk for gout. Gout was also associated with an adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.41 (1.34 to 1.48) for having a Charlson index ≥1. Median time to first comorbidity was 43 months in cases and 111 months in controls. Risks for incident comorbidity were higher in cardiovascular, genitourinary, metabolic/endocrine and musculoskeletal diseases, in addition to liver diseases, hemiplegia, depression, anaemia and psoriasis in patients with gout. After additionally adjusting for all comorbidities at diagnosis, gout was associated with a HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality of 1.13 (1.08 to 1.18; pgout have worse pre-existing health status at diagnosis and the risk of incident comorbidity continues to rise following diagnosis. The range of associated comorbidities is broader than previously recognised and merits further evaluation. PMID:25398375

Risk adjustment policy options for casemix funding: international lessons in financing reform.

Science.gov (United States)

Antioch, Kathryn M; Ellis, Randall P; Gillett, Steve; Borovnicar, Daniel; Marshall, Ric P

2007-09-01

This paper explores modified hospital casemix payment formulae that would refine the diagnosis-related group (DRG) system in Victoria, Australia, which already makes adjustments for teaching, severity and demographics. We estimate alternative casemix funding methods using multiple regressions for individual hospital episodes from 2001 to 2003 on 70 high-deficit DRGs, focussing on teaching hospitals where the largest deficits have occurred. Our casemix variables are diagnosis- and procedure-based severity markers, counts of diagnoses and procedures, disease types, complexity, day outliers, emergency admission and "transfers in." The results are presented for four policy options that vary according to whether all of the dollars or only some are reallocated, whether all or some hospitals are used and whether the alternatives augment or replace existing payments. While our approach identifies variables that help explain patient cost variations, hospital-level simulations suggest that the approaches explored would only reduce teaching hospital underpayment by about 10%. The implications of various policy options are discussed.

A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

2018-01-01

Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased risk of ischemic stroke after hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state: a population-based follow-up study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jen-Yu Wang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although much attention has been focused on the association between chronic hyperglycemia and cerebrovascular diseases in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM patients, there is no data regarding the risk of ischemic stroke after a hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state (HHS attack. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke in type 2 DM patients after an HHS attack. METHODS: From 2004 to 2008, this retrospective observational study was conducted on a large cohort of Taiwanese using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD. We identified 19,031 type 2 DM patients who were discharged with a diagnosis of HHS and 521,229 type 2 DM patients without an HHS diagnosis. Using the propensity score generated from logistic regression models, conditional on baseline covariates, we matched 19,031 type 2 DM patients with an HHS diagnosis with the same number from the comparison cohort. The one-year cumulative rate for ischemic stroke was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. After adjusting covariates, Cox proportional hazard regression was used to compute the adjusted one-year rate of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: Of the patients sampled, 1,810 (9.5% of the type 2 DM patients with HHS and 996 (5.2% of the comparison cohort developed ischemic stroke during the one-year follow-up period. After adjusting for covariates, the adjusted HR for developing ischemic stroke during the one-year follow-up period was 1.8 (95% C.I., 1.67 to 1.95, P<0.001 for type 2 DM patients with HHS compared with those without HHS. CONCLUSION: Although DM is a well-recognized risk factor for atherosclerosis, type 2 DM patients that have suffered a HHS attacks are at an increased risk of developing ischemic stroke compared with those without HHS.

Does risk-adjusted payment influence primary care providers’ decision on where to set up practices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta; Dietrichson, Jens

2018-01-01

Background: Providing equal access to healthcare is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where private providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access...... to care, 15 out 21 county councils in Sweden have implemented risk-adjusted capitation based on the Care Need Index, which increases capitation to primary care centers with a large share of patients with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Our aim is to estimate the effects of using...... Index values. Results: Risk-adjusted capitation significantly increases the number of private primary care centers in areas with relatively high Care Need Index values. The adjustment results in a changed distribution of private centers within county councils; the total number of private centers does...

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

Effect of age at diagnosis of breast cancer on the patterns and risk of mortality from all causes: a population-based study in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Beadle, Geoffrey Francis; McCarthy, Nicole Jean; Baade, Peter David

2013-06-01

This retrospective, population-based study investigated the patterns and risks of mortality from breast cancer, other cancers and non-cancer causes according to the age at diagnosis of breast cancer. Mortality was assessed in all Australian women (n = 179,653) aged 30-79 years who were diagnosed with breast cancer between 1982 and 2004 and who survived a minimum of 1 year. The mean follow up was 6.3 years (range 0-23 years). Before December 2005, 52,934 women had died (34,459 of breast cancer, 5019 of other cancers and 13,456 of non-cancer causes). There was an inverse age-related relative risk of mortality (calculated as the standardized mortality ratio [SMR]) from breast cancer (linear trend across age P cancer survivors the age-adjusted SMR was 0.99 for other cancers and 0.81(P cancer causes in comparison with the general population. The SMR for other cancers and non-cancer causes was highest in the 30-39-year-old age group (2.13, P cancer, other cancers and non-cancer causes. These findings suggest that younger Australian women require long-term health surveillance and that older women with limited comorbidities require optimal treatment of their breast cancer. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

1994-01-01

textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that

Ants avoid superinfections by performing risk-adjusted sanitary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Konrad, Matthias; Pull, Christopher D; Metzler, Sina; Seif, Katharina; Naderlinger, Elisabeth; Grasse, Anna V; Cremer, Sylvia

2018-03-13

Being cared for when sick is a benefit of sociality that can reduce disease and improve survival of group members. However, individuals providing care risk contracting infectious diseases themselves. If they contract a low pathogen dose, they may develop low-level infections that do not cause disease but still affect host immunity by either decreasing or increasing the host's vulnerability to subsequent infections. Caring for contagious individuals can thus significantly alter the future disease susceptibility of caregivers. Using ants and their fungal pathogens as a model system, we tested if the altered disease susceptibility of experienced caregivers, in turn, affects their expression of sanitary care behavior. We found that low-level infections contracted during sanitary care had protective or neutral effects on secondary exposure to the same (homologous) pathogen but consistently caused high mortality on superinfection with a different (heterologous) pathogen. In response to this risk, the ants selectively adjusted the expression of their sanitary care. Specifically, the ants performed less grooming and more antimicrobial disinfection when caring for nestmates contaminated with heterologous pathogens compared with homologous ones. By modulating the components of sanitary care in this way the ants acquired less infectious particles of the heterologous pathogens, resulting in reduced superinfection. The performance of risk-adjusted sanitary care reveals the remarkable capacity of ants to react to changes in their disease susceptibility, according to their own infection history and to flexibly adjust collective care to individual risk.

Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

2015-01-01

Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

2012-08-01

Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

Risk and Protective Factors at Age 16: Psychological Adjustment in Children With a Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

Science.gov (United States)

Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie; Kvalem, Ingela Lundin

2015-09-01

Explore psychological functioning in adolescents with a cleft at age 16 from a broad perspective, including cognitive, emotional, behavioral, appearance-related, and psychosocial adjustment. High-risk groups were identified within each area of adjustment to investigate whether vulnerable adolescents were found across domains or whether risk was limited to specific areas of adjustment. Cross-sectional data based on psychological assessments at age 16 (N = 857). The effect of gender, cleft visibility, and the presence of an additional condition were investigated on all outcome variables. Results were compared with large national samples. Hopkins Symptom Checklist, Harter Self-Perception Scale for Adolescents, Child Experience Questionnaire, and Satisfaction With Appearance scale. The main factor influencing psychological adjustment across domains was gender, with girls in general reporting more psychological problems, as seen in reference groups. The presence of an additional condition also negatively affected some of the measures. No support was found for cleft visibility as a risk factor except for dissatisfaction with appearance. Correlation analyses of risk groups seem to point to an association between social and emotional risk and between social risk and dissatisfaction with appearance. Associations between other domains were found to be weak. The results point to areas of both risk and strength in adolescents born with a cleft lip and/or palate. Future research should investigate how protective factors could counteract potential risk in adolescents with a cleft.

Pneumonia is an independent risk factor for pyogenic liver abscess: A population-based, nested, case-control study.

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Ho, Sai-Wai; Yeh, Chao-Bin; Yang, Shun-Fa; Yeh, Han-Wei; Huang, Jing-Yang; Teng, Ying-Hock

2017-01-01

Bacteremic pneumonia is considered a potential cause of distal organ abscess formation. Therefore, we hypothesize that pneumonia is a risk factor for pyogenic liver abscess (PLA).The aim of this study is to explore the association between pneumonia and PLA. A nationwide, population-based, nested, case-control study was conducted using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In total, 494 patients with PLA and 1,976 propensity score matched controls were enrolled. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) in patients with exposure to pneumonia before PLA. After matched and adjusted for confounding factors including age, sex, urbanization, income, chronic liver disease, alcohol-related disease, biliary stone, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic liver disease, and cancer, hospitalization for pneumonia remained an independent risk factor for PLA with an aORs of 2.104 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.309-3.379, p = 0.0021]. Moreover, the aORs were significantly higher among patients hospitalized for pneumonia within 30 days (aORs = 10.73, 95% CI = 3.381-34.054), 30-90 days (aORs = 4.698, 95% CI = 1.541-14.327) and 90-180 (aORs = 4.000, 95% CI = 1.158-13.817) days before PLA diagnosis. Pneumonia is an independent risk factor for subsequent PLA. Moreover, hospitalization for pneumonia within 180 days before PLA diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of PLA.

Risk-adjusted capitation: Recent experiences in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida)

1994-01-01

textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the

Personality, emotional adjustment, and cardiovascular risk: marriage as a mechanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Timothy W; Baron, Carolynne E; Grove, Jeremy L

2014-12-01

A variety of aspects of personality and emotional adjustment predict the development and course of coronary heart disease (CHD), as do indications of marital quality (e.g., satisfaction, conflict, strain, disruption). Importantly, the personality traits and aspects of emotional adjustment that predict CHD are also related to marital quality. In such instances of correlated risk factors, traditional epidemiological and clinical research typically either ignores the potentially overlapping effects or examines independent associations through statistical controls, approaches that can misrepresent the key components and mechanisms of psychosocial effects on CHD. The interpersonal perspective in personality and clinical psychology provides an alternative and integrative approach, through its structural and process models of interpersonal behavior. We present this perspective on psychosocial risk and review research on its application to the integration of personality, emotional adjustment, and marital processes as closely interrelated influences on health and disease. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Risk adjusted assessment of quality of perinatal centers - results of perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance in Saxonia].

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, R; Gmyrek, D; Vogtmann, Ch

2005-12-01

The weak point of the country-wide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance as a tool for evaluation of achievements of a distinct clinic, is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case-mix of patients. Therefore, that approach can not result in a reliable bench marking. To adjust the results of quality assessment of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal data base of 12.783 newborns of the saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2000 was analyzed. 4 relevant quality indicators of newborn outcome -- a) severe intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants 2500 g and d) hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy -- were targeted to find out specific risk predictors by considering 26 risk factors. A logistic regression model was used to develop the risk predictors. Risk predictors for the 4 quality indicators could be described by 3 - 9 out of 26 analyzed risk factors. The AUC (ROC)-values for these quality indicators were 82, 89, 89 and 89 %, what signifies their reliability. Using the new specific predictors for calculation the risk adjusted incidence rates of quality indicator yielded in some remarkable changes. The apparent differences in the outcome criteria of analyzed hospitals were found to be much less pronounced. The application of the proposed method for risk adjustment of quality indicators makes it possible to perform a more objective comparison of neonatal outcome criteria between different hospitals or regions.

At risk of pressure ulcers - a nursing diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ľubica Poledníková

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Aim: The aim of the study was content validation of the nursing diagnosis of at Risk of Impaired Skin Integrity by a sample of Slovak nurse-experts. It focuses on identifying the major risk factors in pressure ulcer development. Design: Retrospective study. Methods: The Diagnostic Content Validity Model designed by Fehring was used for validation of the nursing diagnosis; we used it to establish the significance of the risk factors of the nursing diagnosis of at Risk of Impaired Skin Integrity in relation to pressure ulcer development. Correlation analysis was used for evaluation of the relationships between the risk factors. The sample consisted of 126 nurse-experts in accordance with modified Fehring criteria. Results: Out of 23 items, the nurses rated nine as significant (the most frequently present risk factors (the weighted scores are shown in brackets: physical immobilisation (0.92, skeletal prominence (0.9, imbalanced nutritional state (0.86, moisture (0.86, mechanical factors (e.g., shearing forces, pressure, restraint (0.84, a Norton Scale score of 14 ≥ points (0.81, hyperthermia (0.81, excretions (0.77, and extremes of age (0.76. Statistically significant correlations, which are positive and range between 0.2 and 0.4, were found between some risk factors. The strongest correlations were found between moisture and mechanical factors (r = 0.4008 and moisture and physical immobilization (r = 0.3072. Conclusion: Using the DCV model, the experts identified nine significant risk factors which can be predictors of pressure ulcer development.

High-Risk Stress Fractures: Diagnosis and Management.

Science.gov (United States)

McInnis, Kelly C; Ramey, Lindsay N

2016-03-01

Stress fractures are common overuse injuries in athletes. They occur during periods of increased training without adequate rest, disrupting normal bone reparative mechanisms. There are a host of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, including biochemical and biomechanical, that put athletes at risk. In most stress fractures, the diagnosis is primarily clinical, with imaging indicated at times, and management focused on symptom-free relative rest with advancement of activity as tolerated. Overall, stress fractures in athletes have an excellent prognosis for return to sport, with little risk of complication. There is a subset of injuries that have a greater risk of fracture progression, delayed healing, and nonunion and are generally more challenging to treat with nonoperative care. Specific locations of high-risk stress fracture include the femoral neck (tension side), patella, anterior tibia, medial malleolus, talus, tarsal navicular, proximal fifth metatarsal, and great toe sesamoids. These sites share a characteristic region of high tensile load and low blood flow. High-risk stress fractures require a more aggressive approach to evaluation, with imaging often necessary, to confirm early and accurate diagnosis and initiate immediate treatment. Treatment consists of nonweight-bearing immobilization, often with a prolonged period away from sport, and a more methodic and careful reintroduction to athletic activity. These stress fractures may require surgical intervention. A high index of suspicion is essential to avoid delayed diagnosis and optimize outcomes in this subset of stress fractures. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular diagnosis of bacterial vaginosis: Does adjustment for total bacterial load or human cellular content improve diagnostic performance?

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Plummer, E L; Garland, S M; Bradshaw, C S; Law, M G; Vodstrcil, L A; Hocking, J S; Fairley, C K; Tabrizi, S N

2017-02-01

We investigated the utility of quantitative PCR assays for diagnosis of bacterial vaginosis and found that while the best model utilized bacterial copy number adjusted for total bacterial load (sensitivity=98%, specificity=93%, AUC=0.95[95%CI=0.93,0.97]), adjusting for total bacterial or human cell load did not consistently increase the diagnostic performance of the assays. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risks of road injuries in patients with bipolar disorder and associations with drug treatments: A population-based matched cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Lee, Chuan-Pin; Wong, Jennifer; Ponton, Lynn; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Huang, Kuo-You; Wu, Shu-I

2018-01-15

Using a nation-wide, population-based dataset, we aimed to investigate the risk of road injury among individuals with bipolar disorder (BD) compared to individuals without BD. In addition, we investigated the putative moderating effects of prescription for lithium, anticonvulsants, antidepressants, and/or first- or second-generation antipsychotic agents on the association between BD and risk of road injury. As part of an16-year longitudinal cohort study, we compared the risk of road injuries among study subjects aged 16 and above with a diagnosis of BD, with ten age- and sex-matched sample of individuals without BD. Individuals were compared on measures of incidence on road injuries using medical claims data based on the ICD-9-CM codes: E800~807, E810~817, E819~830, E840~848. Time dependent Cox regression models were used to adjust for time-varying covariates such as age, and medication uses. Hazard ratios before and after adjusting for age, sex, other comorbidities, and drug use were calculated. 3953 people with BD were matched with 39,530 controls from general population. Adjusted hazard ratios revealed a 1.66-fold (95% CI 1.40-1.97) increase in risk of road injuries among bipolar subjects when compared to controls. Female gender, older age (i.e. over 80), residence in areas of highest levels of urbanization, and use of antidepressants were associated with a lower risk of road injuries. In this large, national, population-based cohort, BD was associated with an elevated risk of road injuries. However, prescriptions of antidepressants might help mitigate the foregoing risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Integral Care Guide for Early Detection and Diagnosis of Depressive Episodes and Recurrent Depressive Disorder in Adults. Integral Attention of Adults with a Diagnosis of Depressive Episodes and Recurrent Depressive Disorder: Part I: Risk Factors, Screening, Suicide Risk Diagnosis and Assessment in Patients with a Depression Diagnosis].

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Restrepo, Carlos; Peñaranda, Adriana Patricia Bohórquez; Valencia, Jenny García; Guarín, Maritza Rodríguez; Narváez, Eliana Bravo; Jaramillo, Luis Eduardo; Acosta, Carlos Alberto Palacio; Pedraza, Ricardo Sánchez; Díaz, Sergio Mario Castro

2012-12-01

Depression is an important cause of morbidity and disability in the world; however, it is under-diagnosed at all care levels. The purpose here is to present recommendations based on the evidence gathered to answer a series of clinical questions concerning risk factors, screening, suicide risk diagnosis and evaluation in patients undergoing a depressive episode and recurrent depressive disorder. Emphasis has been made upon the approach used at the primary care level so as to grant adult diagnosed patients the health care guidelines based on the best and more updated evidence available thus achieving minimum quality standards. A practical clinical guide was elaborated according to standards of the Methodological Guide of the Ministry of Social Protection. Recommendation from guides NICE90 and CANMAT were adopted and updated so as to answer the questions posed while de novo questions were developed. Recommendations 1-22 corresponding to screening, suicide risk and depression diagnosis were presented. The corresponding degree of recommendation is included. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Pharmaceutically treated anxiety but not depression prior to cancer diagnosis predicts the onset of cardiovascular disease among breast cancer survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoormans, Dounya; van de Poll-Franse, Lonneke; Vissers, Pauline; van Herk-Sukel, Myrthe P P; Pedersen, Susanne S; Rottmann, Nina; Horsbøl, Trine; Dalton, Susanne; Denollet, Johan

2017-11-01

To examine the associations between pharmaceutically treated anxiety and depression present in the year prior to breast cancer diagnosis and the risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), while controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and clinical characteristics in a population-based observational study. Adult 1-year breast cancer survivors (n = 7227), diagnosed between 01-01-1999 and 12-31-2010, with no history of CVD, were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Drug dispensing data were derived from the PHARMO Database Network and used as proxy for CVD, anxiety, and depression. By multivariable Cox regression analysis, we examined the risk associated with pharmaceutically treated anxiety and depression for developing CVD after cancer diagnosis, adjusting for age, pharmaceutically treated hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus in the year prior to cancer diagnosis, tumor stage, and cancer treatment. During the 13-year follow-up period, 193 (3%) breast cancer survivors developed CVD. Women pharmaceutically treated for anxiety in the year prior to their cancer diagnosis had a 48% increased hazard for CVD [HR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.05-1.08] after full adjustment. This association was restricted to breast cancer survivors who were 65 years or younger. Depression was not associated with CVD risk [HR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.52-1.53]. Older age [HR = 1.06; 95% CI 1.05-1.08], hypertension [HR = 1.80; 95% CI 1.32-2.46], and hypercholesterolemia [HR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.15-2.33] were associated with an increased hazard for incident CVD, whereas hormone therapy [HR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.42-0.83] was protective. Anxiety present in the year prior to breast cancer diagnosis increases the risk of incident CVD in 1-year breast cancer survivors, after adjustment for depression, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and clinical characteristics.

Breeds of risk-adjusted fundamentalist strategies in an order-driven market

Science.gov (United States)

LiCalzi, Marco; Pellizzari, Paolo

2006-01-01

This paper studies an order-driven stock market where agents have heterogeneous estimates of the fundamental value of the risky asset. The agents are budget-constrained and follow a value-based trading strategy which buys or sells depending on whether the price of the asset is below or above its risk-adjusted fundamental value. This environment generates returns that are remarkably leptokurtic and fat-tailed. By extending the study over a grid of different parameters for the fundamentalist trading strategy, we exhibit the existence of monotone relationships between the bid-ask spread demanded by the agents and several statistics of the returns. We conjecture that this effect, coupled with positive dependence of the risk premium on the volatility, generates positive feedbacks that might explain volatility bursts.

[Family characteristics, organic risk factors, psychopathological picture and premorbid adjustment of hospitalized adolescent patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Małkiewicz-Borkowska, M; Namysłowska, I; Siewierska, A; Puzyńska, E; Sredniawa, H; Zechowski, C; Iwanek, A; Ruszkowska, E

1996-01-01

The relation of some family characteristics such as cohesion and adaptability with organic risk factors, developmental psychopathology, clinical picture and premorbid adjustment was assessed in the group of 100 hospitalized adolescent patients and families. We found correlation between: some of organic risk factors (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood), some of indicators of developmental psychopathology (eating disorders, conduct disorders), some of clinical signs (mannerism, grandiosity, hostility, suspciousness, disturbances of content of thinking), premorbid adjustment, and variables related to families, described before. We think that biological variables characterizing child (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood) have an influence on some family characteristics as independent variable. General system theory and circular thinking support these conclusions. In order to verify them, it is necessary to undertake further investigations, based on other methodology, using this results as preliminary findings.

Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

2015-02-24

Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, pUSA 8.6%, pUSA 11.2%, pUSA 77%, pUSA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

Science.gov (United States)

de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

Science.gov (United States)

Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

2013-06-01

complications. Variables selected for risk adjustment in studies using administrative databases appear to be inadequate to control for case mix bias between low-volume and high-volume surgeons. Risk adjustment should empirically analyze for case mix imbalances between surgeons to identify meaningful risk modifiers in clinical practice such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification. A true relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes remains uncertain, and caution is advised in developing policies based on these findings.

Risk of postoperative hypoxemia in ambulatory orthopedic surgery patients with diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea: a retrospective observational study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ma Yan

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is unclear when it is safe to discharge patients with a diagnosis of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA after ambulatory surgical procedures due to concern for postoperative respiratory compromise and hypoxemia. Our OSA patients undergoing ambulatory-type orthopedic procedures are monitored overnight in the PACU, thus we reviewed patient records to determine incidence of complications. Methods Two hundred and six charts of patients with preoperative diagnosis of OSA based on ICD-9 codes were reviewed for outcomes including episodes of hypoxemia. Univariate analysis followed by logistic regression and propensity analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for hypoxemia and association with adverse outcomes. Results The majority of patients had regional anesthesia (95%. Thirty four percent of patients had hypoxemia in the PACU. Initial risk factors for hypoxemia identified by univariate analysis were BMI ≥ 35, increased age, history of COPD, upper extremity procedure, and use of peripheral nerve block. Independent risk factors identified by logistic regression were history of COPD (OR 3.64 with 95% CI 1.03-12.88 and upper extremity procedure (2.53, 1.36-4.68. After adjustment with propensity scores, adverse events were rare, and unplanned hospital admission after PACU stay was not increased with hypoxemia (11% vs 16% Conclusions Episodes of postoperative hypoxemia in OSA patients undergoing ambulatory surgery with regional anesthesia are not associated with increased adverse outcomes or unplanned hospital admission.

Nine-year risk of depression diagnosis increases with increasing self-reported concussions in retired professional football players.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Zachary Y; Marshall, Stephen W; Harding, Herndon P; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

2012-10-01

Concussions may accelerate the progression to long-term mental health outcomes such as depression in athletes. To prospectively determine the effects of recurrent concussions on the clinical diagnosis of depression in a group of retired football players. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Members of the National Football League Retired Players Association responded to a baseline General Health Survey (GHS) in 2001. They also completed a follow-up survey in 2010. Both surveys asked about demographic information, number of concussions sustained during their professional football career, physical/mental health, and prevalence of diagnosed medical conditions. A physical component summary (Short Form 36 Measurement Model for Functional Assessment of Health and Well-Being [SF-36 PCS]) was calculated from responses for physical health. The main exposure, the history of concussions during the professional playing career (self-report recalled in 2010), was stratified into 5 categories: 0 (referent), 1 to 2, 3 to 4, 5 to 9, and 10+ concussions. The main outcome was a clinical diagnosis of depression between the baseline and follow-up GHS. Classic tabular methods computed crude risk ratios. Binomial regression with a Poisson residual and robust variance estimation to stabilize the fitting algorithm estimated adjusted risk ratios. χ(2) analyses identified associations and trends between concussion history and the 9-year risk of a depression diagnosis. Of the 1044 respondents with complete data from the baseline and follow-up GHS, 106 (10.2%) reported being clinically diagnosed as depressed between the baseline and follow-up GHS. Approximately 65% of all respondents self-reported sustaining at least 1 concussion during their professional careers. The 9-year risk of a depression diagnosis increased with an increasing number of self-reported concussions, ranging from 3.0% in the "no concussions" group to 26.8% in the "10+" group (linear trend: P football and 2001 SF-36 PCS

Increased Risk of Vascular Events in Emergency Room Patients Discharged Home with Diagnosis of Dizziness or Vertigo: A 3-Year Follow-Up Study

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ching-Chih; Ho, Hsu-Chueh; Su, Yu-Chieh; Chiu, Brian C-H; Su, Yung-Cheng; Lee, Yi-Da; Chou, Pesus

2012-01-01

Background Dizziness and vertigo symptoms are commonly seen in emergency room (ER). However, these patients are often discharged without a definite diagnosis. Conflicting data regarding the vascular event risk among the dizziness or vertigo patients have been reported. This study aims to determine the risk of developing stroke or cardiovascular events in ER patients discharged home with a diagnosis of dizziness or vertigo. Methodology A total of 25,757 subjects with at least one ER visit in 2004 were identified. Of those, 1,118 patients were discharged home with a diagnosis of vertigo or dizziness. A Cox proportional hazard model was performed to compare the three-year vascular event-free survival rates between the dizziness/vertigo patients and those without dizziness/vertigo after adjusting for confounding and risk factors. Results We identified 52 (4.7%) vascular events in patients with dizziness/vertigo and 454 (1.8%) vascular events in patients without dizziness/vertigo. ER patients discharged home with a diagnosis of vertigo or dizziness had 2-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35–2.96; pvertigo during the first year. Conclusions ER patients discharged home with a diagnosis of dizziness or vertigo were at a increased risk of developing subsequent vascular events than those without dizziness/vertigo after the onset of dizziness or vertigo. Further studies are warranted for developing better diagnostic and follow-up strategies in increased risk patients. PMID:22558272

Maternal diagnosis of obesity and risk of cerebral palsy in the child.

Science.gov (United States)

Crisham Janik, Mary D; Newman, Thomas B; Cheng, Yvonne W; Xing, Guibo; Gilbert, William M; Wu, Yvonne W

2013-11-01

To examine the association between maternal hospital diagnoses of obesity and risk of cerebral palsy (CP) in the child. For all California hospital births from 1991-2001, we linked infant and maternal hospitalization discharge abstracts to California Department of Developmental Services records of children receiving services for CP. We identified maternal hospital discharge diagnoses of obesity (International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition 646.1, 278.00, or 278.01) and morbid obesity (International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition 278.01), and performed logistic regression to explore the relationship between maternal obesity diagnoses and CP. Among 6.2 million births, 67 200 (1.1%) mothers were diagnosed with obesity, and 7878 (0.1%) with morbid obesity; 8798 (0.14%) children had CP. A maternal diagnosis of obesity (relative risk [RR] 1.30, 95% CI 1.09-1.55) or morbid obesity (RR 2.70, 95% CI 1.89-3.86) was associated with increased risk of CP. In multivariable analysis adjusting for maternal race, age, education, prenatal care, insurance status, and infant sex, both obesity (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.06-1.52) and morbid obesity (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.79-3.66) remained independently associated with CP. On stratified analyses, the association of obesity (RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.25-2.35) or morbid obesity (RR 3.79, 95% CI 2.35-6.10) with CP was only significant among women who were hospitalized prior to the birth admission. Adjusting for potential comorbidities and complications of obesity did not eliminate this association. Maternal obesity may confer an increased risk of CP in some cases. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Pharmaceutically treated anxiety but not depression prior to cancer diagnosis predicts the onset of cardiovascular disease among breast cancer survivors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoormans, Dounya; van de Poll-Franse, Lonneke; Vissers, Pauline

2017-01-01

PURPOSE: To examine the associations between pharmaceutically treated anxiety and depression present in the year prior to breast cancer diagnosis and the risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), while controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and clinical characteristics...... adjustment for depression, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and clinical characteristics......., anxiety, and depression. By multivariable Cox regression analysis, we examined the risk associated with pharmaceutically treated anxiety and depression for developing CVD after cancer diagnosis, adjusting for age, pharmaceutically treated hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus...

[Adjustment disorder and DSM-5: A review].

Science.gov (United States)

Appart, A; Lange, A-K; Sievert, I; Bihain, F; Tordeurs, D

2017-02-01

This paper exposes the complexity and discrete characteristic of the adjustment disorder with reference to its clinical and scientific diagnosis. Even though the disorder occurs in frequent clinical circumstances after important life events, such as mobbing, burn-out, unemployment, divorce or separation, pregnancy denial, surgical operation or cancer, the adjustment disorder is often not considered in the diagnosis since better known disorders with similar symptoms prevail, such as major depression and anxiety disorder. Ten years ago, Bottéro had already noticed that the adjustment disorder diagnosis remained rather uncommon with reference to patients he was working with while Langlois assimilated this disorder with an invisible diagnosis. In order to maximize the data collection, we used the article review below and challenged their surveys and results: National Center for Biotechnology Information (NBCI - Pubmed) for international articles and Cairn.info for French literature. Moreover, we targeted the following keywords on the search engine and used articles, which had been published from 1 February 1975 to 31 January 2015: "adjustment", "adjustment disorder" and the French translation "trouble de l'adaptation". One hundred and ninety-one articles matched our search criteria. However, after a closer analysis, solely 105 articles were selected as being of interest. Many articles were excluded since they were related to non-psychiatric fields induced by the term "adaptation". Indeed, the number of corresponding articles found for the adjustment disorder literally pointed-out the lack of existing literature on that topic in comparison to more known disorders such as anxiety disorder (2661 articles) or major depression (5481 articles). This represents up to 50 times more articles in comparison to the number of articles we found on adjustment disorder and up to 20 times more articles for the eating disorder (1994), although the prevalence is not significantly

Can rent adjustment clauses reduce the income risk of farms?

OpenAIRE

Hotopp, Henning; Mußhoff, Oliver

2012-01-01

Risk management is gaining importance in agriculture. In addition to traditional instruments, new risk management instruments are increasingly being proposed. These proposals include the rent adjustment clauses (RACs), which seem to be an unusual instrument at first sight. In contrast with conventional instruments, RACs intentionally allow fixed-cost ‘rent payments’ to fluctuate. We investigate the whole-farm risk reduction potential of different types of RACs via a historical simulation....

Morbidity before and after the Diagnosis of Hyperthyroidism: A Nationwide Register-Based Study

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Frans; Thvilum, Marianne; Almind, Dorthe; Christensen, Kaare; Green, Anders; Hegedüs, Laszlo; Brix, Thomas Heiberg

2013-01-01

Background Hyperthyroidism has been linked with different morbidities, like atrial fibrillation, stroke and diabetes mellitus. However, our knowledge regarding the extent and temporal relation between hyperthyroidism and other diseases is fragmented. Here, we aimed at evaluating various morbidities before and after the diagnosis of hyperthyroidism. Methods Observational cohort study. From nationwide Danish health registers 2631 hyperthyroid singletons and 375 twin pairs discordant for hyperthyroidism were identified and followed for an average of 6 years (range 0–13). Data on the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases, lung diseases, diabetes mellitus, rheumatic diseases and malignant diseases was obtained by person-to-person record linkage with the National Danish Patient Register and/or the Danish National Prescription Registry (lung diseases and diabetes mellitus). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the risk of morbidity before and after the diagnosis of hyperthyroidism, respectively. All Cox regression analyses were adjusted for the degree of co-morbidity preceding the diagnosis of hyperthyroidism, using the Charlson score. Results Hyperthyroid individuals had a significantly higher risk of being diagnosed with cardiovascular diseases (odds ratio (OR) 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45–1.87), lung diseases (OR 1.53; 95% CI: 1.29–1.60), and diabetes mellitus (OR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.20–1.72), but not with malignant diseases (OR 1.16, 95% CI: 0.99–1.36) prior to the diagnosis of hyperthyroidism. After the diagnosis of hyperthyroidism, subjects had a significantly higher risk of being diagnosed with cardiovascular diseases (hazard ratio (HR) 1.34; 95% CI: 1.15–1.56), lung diseases (HR 1.28; 95% CI: 1.10–1.49), and diabetes mellitus (HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.16–1.84), but not with rheumatic diseases (HR 1.39, 95% CI: 0.92–2.09) or malignant diseases (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.97–1.42). Conclusions We demonstrate a significantly increased

Risk selection and risk adjustment: improving insurance in the individual and small group markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Baicker, Katherine; Dow, William H

2009-01-01

Insurance market reforms face the key challenge of addressing the threat that risk selection poses to the availability, of stable, high-value insurance policies that provide long-term risk protection. Many of the strategies in use today fail to address this breakdown in risk pooling, and some even exacerbate it. Flexible risk adjustment schemes are a promising avenue for promoting market stability and limiting insurer cream-skimming, potentially providing greater benefits at lower cost. Reforms intended to increase insurance coverage and the value of care delivered will be much more effective if implemented in conjunction with policies that address these fundamental selection issues.

A novel case-control design to estimate the extent of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to organised population-based mammography screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckmann, Kerri R; Lynch, John W; Hiller, Janet E; Farshid, Gelareh; Houssami, Nehmat; Duffy, Stephen W; Roder, David M

2015-03-15

Debate about the extent of breast cancer over-diagnosis due to mammography screening has continued for over a decade, without consensus. Estimates range from 0 to 54%, but many studies have been criticized for having flawed methodology. In this study we used a novel study design to estimate over-diagnosis due to organised mammography screening in South Australia (SA). To estimate breast cancer incidence at and following screening we used a population-based, age-matched case-control design involving 4,931 breast cancer cases and 22,914 controls to obtain OR for yearly time intervals since women's last screening mammogram. The level of over-diagnosis was estimated by comparing the cumulative breast cancer incidence with and without screening. The former was derived by applying ORs for each time window to incidence rates in the absence of screening, and the latter, by projecting pre-screening incidence rates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess potential biases. Over-diagnosis was estimated to be 8% (95%CI 2-14%) and 14% (95%CI 8-19%) among SA women aged 45 to 85 years from 2006-2010, for invasive breast cancer and all breast cancer respectively. These estimates were robust when applying various sensitivity analyses, except for adjustment for potential confounding assuming higher risk among screened than non-screened women, which reduced levels of over-diagnosis to 1% (95%CI 5-7%) and 8% (95%CI 2-14%) respectively when incidence rates for screening participants were adjusted by 10%. Our results indicate that the level of over-diagnosis due to mammography screening is modest and considerably lower than many previous estimates, including others for Australia. © 2014 UICC.

Application of learning techniques based on kernel methods for the fault diagnosis in industrial processes

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Jose M. Bernal-de-Lázaro

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This article summarizes the main contributions of the PhD thesis titled: "Application of learning techniques based on kernel methods for the fault diagnosis in Industrial processes". This thesis focuses on the analysis and design of fault diagnosis systems (DDF based on historical data. Specifically this thesis provides: (1 new criteria for adjustment of the kernel methods used to select features with a high discriminative capacity for the fault diagnosis tasks, (2 a proposed approach process monitoring using statistical techniques multivariate that incorporates a reinforced information concerning to the dynamics of the Hotelling's T2 and SPE statistics, whose combination with kernel methods improves the detection of small-magnitude faults; (3 an robustness index to compare the diagnosis classifiers performance taking into account their insensitivity to possible noise and disturbance on historical data.

[Factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis: Development of a risk-adjusted model based on administrative data from German hospitals].

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König, Volker; Kolzter, Olaf; Albuszies, Gerd; Thölen, Frank

2018-05-01

Inpatient administrative data from hospitals is already used nationally and internationally in many areas of internal and public quality assurance in healthcare. For sepsis as the principal condition, only a few published approaches are available for Germany. The aim of this investigation is to identify factors influencing hospital mortality by employing appropriate analytical methods in order to improve the internal quality management of sepsis. The analysis was based on data from 754,727 DRG cases of the CLINOTEL hospital network charged in 2015. The association then included 45 hospitals of all supply levels with the exception of university hospitals (range of beds: 100 to 1,172 per hospital). Cases of sepsis were identified via the ICD codes of their principal diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors influencing in-hospital lethality for this population. The model was developed using sociodemographic and other potential variables that could be derived from the DRG data set, and taking into account current literature data. The model obtained was validated with inpatient administrative data of 2016 (51 hospitals, 850,776 DRG cases). Following the definition of the inclusion criteria, 5,608 cases of sepsis (2016: 6,384 cases) were identified in 2015. A total of 12 significant and, over both years, stable factors were identified, including age, severity of sepsis, reason for hospital admission and various comorbidities. The AUC value of the model, as a measure of predictability, is above 0.8 (H-L test p>0.05, R 2 value=0.27), which is an excellent result. The CLINOTEL model of risk adjustment for in-hospital lethality can be used to determine the mortality probability of patients with sepsis as principal diagnosis with a very high degree of accuracy, taking into account the case mix. Further studies are needed to confirm whether the model presented here will prove its value in the internal quality assurance of hospitals

Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

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Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

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Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

2016-01-06

Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

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Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2012-05-01

The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

The association between adjustment disorder diagnosed at psychiatric treatment facilities and completed suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gradus, Jaimie L; Qin, Ping; Lincoln, Alisa K

2010-01-01

Adjustment disorder is a diagnosis given following a significant psychosocial stressor from which an individual has difficulty recovering. The individual's reaction to this event must exceed what would be observed among similar people experiencing the same stressor. Adjustment disorder is associa...... regression analyses revealed that those diagnosed with adjustment disorder had 12 times the rate of suicide as those without an adjustment disorder diagnosis, after controlling for history of depression diagnosis, marital status, income, and the matched factors....... is associated with suicidal ideation and suicide attempt. However the association between adjustment disorder and completed suicide has yet to be examined. The current study is a population-based case control study examining this association in the population of Denmark aged 15 to 90 years. All suicides...... in Denmark from 1994 to 2006 were included, resulting in 9,612 cases. For each case, up to 30 controls were matched on gender, exact date of birth, and calendar time, yielding 199,306 controls. Adjustment disorder diagnosis was found in 7.6% of suicide cases and 0.52% of controls. Conditional logistic...

Risk of anxiety and depressive disorders in patients with myocardial infarction: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Hsin-Pei; Chien, Wu-Chien; Cheng, Wei-Tung; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Cheng, Shu-Meng; Tzeng, Wen-Chii

2016-08-01

Anxiety and depressive symptoms are associated with adverse cardiovascular events after an acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, most studies focusing on anxiety or depression have used rating scales or self-report methods rather than clinical diagnosis. This study aimed to investigate the association between psychiatrist-diagnosed psychiatric disorders and cardiovascular prognosis.We sampled data from the National Health Insurance Research Database; 1396 patients with MI were recruited as the study cohort and 13,960 patients without MI were recruited as the comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the effect of MI on the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders.During the first 2 years of follow-up, patients with MI exhibited a significantly higher risk of anxiety disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 5.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.61-5.54) and depressive disorders (adjusted HR = 7.23, 95% CI: 4.88-10.88) than those without MI did. Greater risk for anxiety and depressive disorders was observed among women and patients aged 45 to 64 years following an acute MI. Patients with post-MI anxiety had a 9.37-fold (95% CI: 4.45-19.70) higher risk of recurrent MI than those without MI did after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities.This nationwide population-based cohort study provides evidence that MI increases the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders during the first 2 years post-MI, and post-MI anxiety disorders are associated with a higher risk of recurrent MI.

Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

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Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

2014-02-01

To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

The Experience of Risk-Adjusted Capitation Payment for Family Physicians in Iran: A Qualitative Study.

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Esmaeili, Reza; Hadian, Mohammad; Rashidian, Arash; Shariati, Mohammad; Ghaderi, Hossien

2016-04-01

When a country's health system is faced with fundamental flaws that require the redesign of financing and service delivery, primary healthcare payment systems are often reformed. This study was conducted with the purpose of exploring the experiences of risk-adjusted capitation payment of urban family physicians in Iran when it comes to providing primary health care (PHC). This is a qualitative study using the framework method. Data were collected via digitally audio-recorded semi-structured interviews with 24 family physicians and 5 executive directors in two provinces of Iran running the urban family physician pilot program. The participants were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. The codes were extracted using inductive and deductive methods. Regarding the effects of risk-adjusted capitation on the primary healthcare setting, five themes with 11 subthemes emerged, including service delivery, institutional structure, financing, people's behavior, and the challenges ahead. Our findings indicated that the health system is enjoying some major changes in the primary healthcare setting through the implementation of risk-adjusted capitation payment. With regard to the current challenges in Iran's health system, using risk-adjusted capitation as a primary healthcare payment system can lead to useful changes in the health system's features. However, future research should focus on the development of the risk-adjusted capitation model.

Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

2014-10-01

We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Nursing Diagnosis of risk for pressure ulcer: content validation

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Cássia Teixeira dos Santos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objective: to validate the content of the new nursing diagnosis, termed risk for pressure ulcer. Method: the content validation with a sample made up of 24 nurses who were specialists in skin care from six different hospitals in the South and Southeast of Brazil. Data collection took place electronically, through an instrument constructed using the SurveyMonkey program, containing a title, definition, and 19 risk factors for the nursing diagnosis. The data were analyzed using Fehring's method and descriptive statistics. The project was approved by a Research Ethics Committee. Results: title, definition and seven risk factors were validated as "very important": physical immobilization, pressure, surface friction, shearing forces, skin moisture, alteration in sensation and malnutrition. Among the other risk factors, 11 were validated as "important": dehydration, obesity, anemia, decrease in serum albumin level, prematurity, aging, smoking, edema, impaired circulation, and decrease in oxygenation and in tissue perfusion. The risk factor of hyperthermia was discarded. Conclusion: the content validation of these components of the nursing diagnosis corroborated the importance of the same, being able to facilitate the nurse's clinical reasoning and guiding clinical practice in the preventive care for pressure ulcers.

In-hospital delirium risk assessment, diagnosis and management; medications to avoid

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Andrew Clegg

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Delirium is a common, but potentially preventable complication of acute illness that is associated with important adverse outcomes including increased length of hospital admission, risk of dementia and admission to long-term care. In-hospital risk assessment and diagnosis: Age over 65, severe illness, current hip fracture and presence of cognitive impairment or dementia are important risk factors for delirium. Assess people with any of these risk factors for recent changes or fluctuations in behaviour that might indicate delirium. If any indicators are present, complete a full cognitive assessment to confirm the diagnosis of delirium. In-hospital risk management: Multicomponent delirium prevention interventions can reduce the incidence of delirium in hospital by around one third and should be provided to people with any of the important risk factors that do not have delirium at admission. A medication review that considers both the number and type of prescribed medications is an important part of the multicomponent delirium prevention intervention. Which medications to avoid in people at risk of delirium: For people at risk of delirium, avoid new prescriptions of benzodiazepines or consider reducing or stopping these medications where possible. Opioids should be prescribed with caution in people at risk of delirium but this should be tempered by the observation that untreated severe pain can itself trigger delirium. Caution is also required when prescribing dihydropyridines and antihistamine H1 antagonists for people at risk of delirium and considered individual patient assessment is advocated. Conclusion: Delirium is common, distressing to patients, relatives and carers and is associated with important adverse outcomes. Multicomponent delirium prevention interventions can reduce the incidence of delirium by approximately one third and usually incorporate a medication review. Identification of which medications to avoid in people at

Sleep Disorder Diagnosis During Pregnancy and Risk of Preterm Birth.

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Felder, Jennifer N; Baer, Rebecca J; Rand, Larry; Jelliffe-Pawlowski, Laura L; Prather, Aric A

2017-09-01

To test the hypothesis that sleep disorder diagnosis would be associated with increased risk of preterm birth and to examine risk by gestational age, preterm birth type, and specific sleep disorder (insomnia, sleep apnea, movement disorder, and other). In this observational study, participants were from a cohort of nearly 3 million women in California between 2007 and 2012. Inclusion criteria were women with singleton neonates liveborn between 20 and 44 weeks of gestation without chromosomal abnormalities or major structural birth defects linked to a hospital discharge database maintained by the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development and without mental illness during pregnancy. Sleep disorder was defined based on International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification diagnostic code (n=2,265). Propensity score matching was used to select a referent population at a one-to-one ratio. Odds of preterm birth were examined by gestational age (less than 34 weeks, 34-36 weeks, and less than 37 weeks of gestation) and type (spontaneous, indicated). Prevalence of preterm birth (before 37 weeks of gestation) was 10.9% in the referent group compared with 14.6% among women with a recorded sleep disorder diagnosis. Compared with the referent group, odds (95% CI, P value, percentage) of preterm birth were 1.3 (1.0-1.7, P=.023, 14.1%) for insomnia and 1.5 (1.2-1.8, P<.001, 15.5%) for sleep apnea. Risk varied by gestational age and preterm birth type. Odds of preterm birth were not significantly increased for sleep-related movement disorders or other sleep disorders. Insomnia and sleep apnea were associated with significantly increased risk of preterm birth. Considering the high prevalence of sleep disorders during pregnancy and availability of evidence-based nonpharmacologic interventions, current findings suggest that screening for severe presentations would be prudent.

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

12 CFR 615.5210 - Risk-adjusted assets.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... appropriate credit conversion factor in § 615.5212, is assigned to one of the risk categories specified in... risk-based capital requirement for the credit-enhanced assets, the risk-based capital required under..., determine the appropriate risk weight for any asset or credit equivalent amount that does not fit wholly...

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study.

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Adelborg, Kasper; Szépligeti, Szimonetta Komjáthiné; Holland-Bill, Louise; Ehrenstein, Vera; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Henderson, Victor W; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-01-31

To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort. Nationwide, population based cohort study. All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013. 51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year. Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis. Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted after additional multivariable adjustment for body mass index and smoking

Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

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Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

1981-01-01

The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

The experience of adjusting to a diagnosis of non-epileptic attack disorder (NEAD) and the subsequent process of psychological therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wyatt, Caroline; Laraway, Alec; Weatherhead, Stephen

2014-10-01

Research suggests psychological therapy as the treatment of choice for individuals diagnosed with NEAD. This study explored the experience of adjusting to a diagnosis of NEAD and engagement with therapy through a qualitative methodology. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 6 people with a diagnosis of NEAD and analysed using thematic analysis. Six master-themes were generated, with four discussed. Two themes were not discussed due to previous coverage in the literature and their less direct relevance to the service context. Theme 1: 'understanding NEAD' incorporated participants' evolving understanding of the diagnosis and their reflections on this. Theme 2: 'I can't deal with you' centres on participants' accounts of relationships with professionals in the context of NEAD. Theme 3: 'experiences of psychological therapy' reflected participants' experience of being referred to psychology and gaining a deeper understanding of themselves through therapy. Theme 4: 'adjusting to life with NEAD' explores participants' views on living with NEAD and their expectations for the future. This study extended previous research by highlighting the impact of how the diagnosis is received and understood on engagement in therapy. Improving awareness of NEAD amongst healthcare professionals is of key importance in reducing stigma and encouraging engagement in therapy. Copyright © 2014 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method to adjust radiation dose-response relationships for clinical risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R

2012-01-01

Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...

Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

2013-09-01

BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

Obstetric conditions and risk of first admission with schizophrenia: A Danish national register based study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Byrne, Majella; Agerbo, Esben; Bennedsen, Birgit

2007-01-01

and 24, 826 individually matched controls. Adjusting for the other obstetric factors, family psychiatric history, and socio-economic and demographic factors, risk of schizophrenia was associated with maternal non-attendance at antenatal appointments (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 2.08, 95% CI: 1.0, 4...... (IRR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.1, 4.4), and maternal sepsis of childbirth and the puerperium (IRR 2.91, 95% CI: 1.1, 7.9). There was no significant interaction between the obstetric factors and either sex or family psychiatric history. The data suggest a modest association between prematurity, indicators......-control study based on Danish longitudinal registers was conducted to investigate the risk of schizophrenia associated with exposure to a range of obstetric events. The sample included 1039 first admissions to, or contacts with Danish psychiatric services with an ICD-8 or ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia...

Birth weight and risk of paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma: Findings from a population-based record linkage study in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Triebwasser, Corey; Wang, Rong; DeWan, Andrew T; Metayer, Catherine; Morimoto, Libby; Wiemels, Joseph L; Kadan-Lottick, Nina; Ma, Xiaomei

2016-12-01

To evaluate the relationship between birth weight (along with a variety of pre and perinatal characteristics) and the risk of paediatric Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) diagnosed at age birth records from 1978-2009 and cancer diagnosis data from 1988-2011 to conduct a population-based case-control study with 1216 cases and 4485 controls (matched on birth month and year, sex, and race/ethnicity). Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of paediatric HL overall and by age of diagnosis, controlling for other perinatal factors. Compared to children with a normal birth weight (2500-3999 g), those who had a high birth weight (≥4000 g) had an increased risk of paediatric HL overall (OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.02-1.48) after adjusting for birth order, maternal age at the time of delivery, and paternal age at the time of delivery. The magnitude of association appeared larger for subgroups of children whose age of diagnosis was 0-10 years (OR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.04-2.24) or 15-19 years (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.11-1.83), while no association was observed in 11-14 year olds. Compared with firstborn children, those who were third or higher in birth order had a reduced risk of paediatric HL overall (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67-0.95), and this association also varied by age of diagnosis. In this study with the largest number of paediatric HL cases, high birth weight was associated with an increased disease risk for most but not all ages of diagnosis. The different findings by age of diagnosis regarding both birth weight and birth order underscore the importance to stratify paediatric HL by age at diagnosis in future etiological investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between Metformin Use and Cancer Stage at Diagnosis among Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries with Preexisting Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Incident Prostate Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amit D. Raval

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To examine the association between metformin use and cancer stage at diagnosis among elderly men with preexisting diabetes mellitus and incident prostate cancer. Methods. This study used a population-based observational cohort of elderly men (≥66 years with preexisting diabetes and incident prostate cancer between 2008 and 2009 (N=2,652. Cancer stage at diagnosis (localized versus advanced was based on the American Joint Cancer Committee classification. Metformin use and other independent variables were measured during the one year before cancer diagnosis. Logistic regressions with inverse probability treatment weights were used to control for the observed selection bias. Results. A significantly lower percentage of metformin users were diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer as compared to nonusers (4.7% versus 6.7%, p<0.03. After adjusting for the observed selection bias and other independent variables, metformin use was associated with a 32% reduction in the risk of advanced prostate cancer (adjusted odds ratio, AOR: 0.68, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.48, 0.97. Conclusions. This is the first epidemiological study to support the role of metformin in reducing the risk of advanced prostate cancer. Randomized clinical trials are needed to confirm the causal link between metformin use and prostate cancer diagnosis stage.

Lifetime interpersonal violence and self-reported chlamydia trachomatis diagnosis among California women.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez, Jennifer; Pavao, Joanne; Mack, Katelyn P; Chow, Joan M; Baumrind, Nikki; Kimerling, Rachel

2009-01-01

To examine the relationship between cumulative exposure to various types of interpersonal violence throughout the life span and self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) diagnosis in a population-based sample of California women. This was a cross-sectional analysis of a population-based survey of California women aged 18-44 years (n = 3521). Participants reported their experience of multiple types of interpersonal violence: physical or sexual abuse in childhood or adulthood and intimate partner violence (IPV) in the past 12 months. Current posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depressive symptoms were also reported. Separate logistic regression models assessed the association between experiencing each type of interpersonal violence, as well as women's cumulative exposure to violence, and past CT diagnosis, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and poverty, as well as mental health problems. Six percent of women reported a past diagnosis of CT, and 40.8% reported experiencing at least one type of interpersonal violence in their lifetime. All types of violence were significantly associated with higher odds of having a past CT diagnosis even after controlling for sociodemographics. Women who reported experiencing four or more types of violence experiences had over five times the odds of reporting a lifetime CT diagnosis compared with women who never experienced interpersonal violence (adjusted odds ratio = 5.71, 95% CI 3.27-9.58). Current PTSD and depressive symptoms did not significantly affect the relationship between a woman's cumulative experience of violence and her risk of past CT diagnosis. There is a robust association between experiencing multiple forms of violence and having been diagnosed with CT. Women who seek treatment for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), such as CT, should be assessed for their lifetime history of violence, especially violence in their current intimate relationships. Sexual risk reduction counseling may also be important

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Ontology based decision system for breast cancer diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Trabelsi Ben Ameur, Soumaya; Cloppet, Florence; Wendling, Laurent; Sellami, Dorra

2018-04-01

In this paper, we focus on analysis and diagnosis of breast masses inspired by expert concepts and rules. Accordingly, a Bag of Words is built based on the ontology of breast cancer diagnosis, accurately described in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. To fill the gap between low level knowledge and expert concepts, a semantic annotation is developed using a machine learning tool. Then, breast masses are classified into benign or malignant according to expert rules implicitly modeled with a set of classifiers (KNN, ANN, SVM and Decision Tree). This semantic context of analysis offers a frame where we can include external factors and other meta-knowledge such as patient risk factors as well as exploiting more than one modality. Based on MRI and DECEDM modalities, our developed system leads a recognition rate of 99.7% with Decision Tree where an improvement of 24.7 % is obtained owing to semantic analysis.

Intelligent Mechanical Fault Diagnosis Based on Multiwavelet Adaptive Threshold Denoising and MPSO

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Hao Sun

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The condition diagnosis of rotating machinery depends largely on the feature analysis of vibration signals measured for the condition diagnosis. However, the signals measured from rotating machinery usually are nonstationary and nonlinear and contain noise. The useful fault features are hidden in the heavy background noise. In this paper, a novel fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on multiwavelet adaptive threshold denoising and mutation particle swarm optimization (MPSO is proposed. Geronimo, Hardin, and Massopust (GHM multiwavelet is employed for extracting weak fault features under background noise, and the method of adaptively selecting appropriate threshold for multiwavelet with energy ratio of multiwavelet coefficient is presented. The six nondimensional symptom parameters (SPs in the frequency domain are defined to reflect the features of the vibration signals measured in each state. Detection index (DI using statistical theory has been also defined to evaluate the sensitiveness of SP for condition diagnosis. MPSO algorithm with adaptive inertia weight adjustment and particle mutation is proposed for condition identification. MPSO algorithm effectively solves local optimum and premature convergence problems of conventional particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. It can provide a more accurate estimate on fault diagnosis. Practical examples of fault diagnosis for rolling element bearings are given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Gene-Based Multiclass Cancer Diagnosis with Class-Selective Rejections

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Jrad, Nisrine; Grall-Maës, Edith; Beauseroy, Pierre

2009-01-01

Supervised learning of microarray data is receiving much attention in recent years. Multiclass cancer diagnosis, based on selected gene profiles, are used as adjunct of clinical diagnosis. However, supervised diagnosis may hinder patient care, add expense or confound a result. To avoid this misleading, a multiclass cancer diagnosis with class-selective rejection is proposed. It rejects some patients from one, some, or all classes in order to ensure a higher reliability while reducing time and expense costs. Moreover, this classifier takes into account asymmetric penalties dependant on each class and on each wrong or partially correct decision. It is based on ν-1-SVM coupled with its regularization path and minimizes a general loss function defined in the class-selective rejection scheme. The state of art multiclass algorithms can be considered as a particular case of the proposed algorithm where the number of decisions is given by the classes and the loss function is defined by the Bayesian risk. Two experiments are carried out in the Bayesian and the class selective rejection frameworks. Five genes selected datasets are used to assess the performance of the proposed method. Results are discussed and accuracies are compared with those computed by the Naive Bayes, Nearest Neighbor, Linear Perceptron, Multilayer Perceptron, and Support Vector Machines classifiers. PMID:19584932

Associations between DSM-IV mental disorders and subsequent COPD diagnosis

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Rapsey, Charlene M.; Lim, Carmen C.W.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Alonso, Jordi; Bruffaerts, Ronny; Caldas-de-Almeida, J.M.; Florescu, Silvia; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Hu, Chiyi; Kessler, Ronald C.; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Elena Medina-Mora, María; Murphy, Sam; Ono, Yutaka; Piazza, Maria; Posada-Villa, Jose; ten Have, Margreet; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Scott, Kate M.

2016-01-01

Objectives COPD and mental disorder comorbidity is commonly reported, although findings are limited by substantive weaknesses. Moreover, few studies investigate mental disorder as a risk for COPD onset. This research aims to investigate associations between current (12-month) DSM-IV mental disorders and COPD, associations between temporally prior mental disorders and subsequent COPD diagnosis, and cumulative effect of multiple mental disorders. Methods Data were collected using population surveys of 19 countries (n = 52,095). COPD diagnosis was assessed by self-report of physician's diagnosis. The World Mental Health-Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) was used to retrospectively assess lifetime prevalence and age at onset of 16 DSM-IV disorders. Adjusting for age, gender, smoking, education, and country, survival analysis estimated associations between first onset of mental disorder and subsequent COPD diagnosis. Results COPD and several mental disorders were concurrently associated across the 12-month period (ORs 1.5–3.8). When examining associations between temporally prior disorders and COPD, all but two mental disorders were associated with COPD diagnosis (ORs 1.7–3.5). After comorbidity adjustment, depression, generalized anxiety disorder, and alcohol abuse were significantly associated with COPD (ORs 1.6–1.8). There was a substantive cumulative risk of COPD diagnosis following multiple mental disorders experienced over the lifetime. Conclusions: Mental disorder prevalence is higher in those with COPD than those without COPD. Over time, mental disorders are associated with subsequent diagnosis of COPD; further, the risk is cumulative for multiple diagnoses. Attention should be given to the role of mental disorders in the pathogenesis of COPD using prospective study designs. PMID:26526305

Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

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Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

2016-08-17

Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

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Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2016-01-01

This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

Measuring Risk-adjusted Customer Lifetime Value and its Impact on Relationship Marketing Strategies and Shareholder Value

OpenAIRE

Ryals, Lynette; Knox, Simon

2005-01-01

The calculations which underlie efforts to balance marketing spending on customer acquisition and customer retention are usually based on either single- period customer profitability or forecasts of customer lifetime value (CLTV). This paper argues instead for risk-adjusted CLTV, which is termed the economic value (EV) of a customer, as the means for marketing to assess both customer profitability and shareholder value gains.

[Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

2017-11-01

The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

Risk-adjusted survival after tissue versus mechanical aortic valve replacement: a 23-year assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaca, Jeffrey G; Clare, Robert M; Rankin, J Scott; Daneshmand, Mani A; Milano, Carmelo A; Hughes, G Chad; Wolfe, Walter G; Glower, Donald D; Smith, Peter K

2013-11-01

Detailed analyses of risk-adjusted outcomes after mitral valve surgery have documented significant survival decrements with tissue valves at any age. Several recent studies of prosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) also have suggested a poorer performance of tissue valves, although analyses have been limited to small matched series. The study aim was to test the hypothesis that AVR with tissue valves is associated with a lower risk-adjusted survival, as compared to mechanical valves. Between 1986 and 2009, primary isolated AVR, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), was performed with currently available valve types in 2148 patients (1108 tissue valves, 1040 mechanical). Patients were selected for tissue valves to be used primarily in the elderly. Baseline and operative characteristics were documented prospectively with a consistent variable set over the entire 23-year period. Follow up was obtained with mailed questionnaires, supplemented by National Death Index searches. The average time to death or follow up was seven years, and follow up for survival was 96.2% complete. Risk-adjusted survival characteristics for the two groups were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection of candidate variables. Differences in baseline characteristics between groups were (tissue versus mechanical): median age 73 versus 61 years; non-elective surgery 32% versus 28%; CABG 45% versus 35%; median ejection fraction 55% versus 55%; renal failure 6% versus 1%; diabetes 18% versus 7% (pvalves; however, after risk adjustment for the adverse profiles of tissue valve patients, no significant difference was observed in survival after tissue or mechanical AVR. Thus, the hypothesis did not hold, and risk-adjusted survival was equivalent, of course qualified by the fact that selection bias was evident. With selection criteria that employed tissue AVR more frequently in elderly patients, tissue and mechanical valves achieved similar survival

Smoking and the Risk of Hospitalization for Symptomatic Diverticular Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study from Sweden.

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Humes, David J; Ludvigsson, Jonas F; Jarvholm, Bengt

2016-02-01

Current studies reporting on the risk of smoking and development of symptomatic diverticular disease have reported conflicting results. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between smoking and symptomatic diverticular disease. This is a cohort study : Information was derived from the Swedish Construction Workers Cohort 1971-1993. Patients were selected from construction workers in Sweden. The primary outcome measured was the development of symptomatic diverticular disease and complicated diverticular disease (abscess and perforation) as identified in the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register. Adjusted relative risks of symptomatic diverticular disease according to smoking status were estimated by using negative binomial regression analysis. In total, the study included 232,685 men and 14,592 women. During follow-up, 3891 men and 318 women had a diagnosis of later symptomatic diverticular disease. In men, heavy smokers (≥15 cigarettes a day) had a 1.6-fold increased risk of developing symptomatic diverticular disease compared with nonsmokers (adjusted relative risk, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.42-1.72). There was evidence of a dose-response relationship, because moderate and ex-smokers had a 1.4- and 1.2-fold increased risk compared with nonsmokers (adjusted relative risk, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.27-1.52 and adjusted relative risk, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.27). These relationships were similar in women, but the risk estimates were less precise owing to smaller numbers. Male ever-smokers had a 2.7-fold increased risk of developing complicated diverticular disease (perforation/abscess) compared with nonsmokers (adjusted relative risks, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.69-4.41). We were unable to account for other confounding variables such as comorbidity, prescription medication, or lifestyle factors. Smoking is associated with symptomatic diverticular disease in both men and women and with an increased risk of developing complicated diverticular disease.

Thyroid disorders and breast cancer risk in Asian population: a nationwide population-based case-control study in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Chien-Hsiang; Chen, Yi-Huei; Lin, Ching-Heng; Luo, Xun; Lin, Tseng-Hsi

2018-03-30

To evaluate whether hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism increases the risk of subsequent breast cancer in an Asian population. Nationwide population-based case-control study. All healthcare facilities in Taiwan. A total of 103 466 women (mean age 53.3 years) were enrolled. 51 733 adult women with newly diagnosed primary breast cancer without a previous cancer history between 2006 and 2011 were identified and included in our study. 51 733 women with no cancer diagnosis prior to the index date were age matched as controls. Diagnosis of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism prior to the diagnosis of breast cancer or the same index date was identified, age, histories of thyroid disease treatment, oestrogen use and radioactive iodine treatment were adjusted. To identify risk differences in developing breast cancer among patients with a medical history of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. There was a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in women with hyperthyroidism under the age of 55 years (age hypothyroidism also showed an increased risk of breast cancer (OR 1.19, P=0.029) without statistical significance after stratification by age group (age 55 years). Treatment for thyroid disorders did not alter the association in subgroup analyses (P=0.857; 0.262, respectively). Asian women under 55 years of age with history of hyperthyroidism have a significantly increased risk of breast cancer regardless of treatment. Women with history of hypothyroidism may also have an increased risk. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The Effect of Adding Comorbidities to Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central-Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection Risk-Adjustment Methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Sarah S; Leekha, Surbhi; Magder, Laurence S; Pineles, Lisa; Anderson, Deverick J; Trick, William E; Woeltje, Keith F; Kaye, Keith S; Stafford, Kristen; Thom, Kerri; Lowe, Timothy J; Harris, Anthony D

2017-09-01

BACKGROUND Risk adjustment is needed to fairly compare central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates between hospitals. Until 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) methodology adjusted CLABSI rates only by type of intensive care unit (ICU). The 2017 CDC models also adjust for hospital size and medical school affiliation. We hypothesized that risk adjustment would be improved by including patient demographics and comorbidities from electronically available hospital discharge codes. METHODS Using a cohort design across 22 hospitals, we analyzed data from ICU patients admitted between January 2012 and December 2013. Demographics and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) discharge codes were obtained for each patient, and CLABSIs were identified by trained infection preventionists. Models adjusting only for ICU type and for ICU type plus patient case mix were built and compared using discrimination and standardized infection ratio (SIR). Hospitals were ranked by SIR for each model to examine and compare the changes in rank. RESULTS Overall, 85,849 ICU patients were analyzed and 162 (0.2%) developed CLABSI. The significant variables added to the ICU model were coagulopathy, paralysis, renal failure, malnutrition, and age. The C statistics were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) for the ICU-type model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) for the ICU-type plus patient case-mix model. When the hospitals were ranked by adjusted SIRs, 10 hospitals (45%) changed rank when comorbidity was added to the ICU-type model. CONCLUSIONS Our risk-adjustment model for CLABSI using electronically available comorbidities demonstrated better discrimination than did the CDC model. The CDC should strongly consider comorbidity-based risk adjustment to more accurately compare CLABSI rates across hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1019-1024.

Non-tuberculous mycobacterial lung disease: diagnosis based on computed tomography of the chest

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Kwak, Nakwon; Han, Sung Koo; Yim, Jae-Joon [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, 101 Daehak-Ro, Jongno-Gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Chang Hyun; Lee, Hyun-Ju [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, and Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Young Ae [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Institute of Chest Diseases, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jae Ho [Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine, Seongnam, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

To elucidate the accuracy and inter-observer agreement of non-tuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTM-LD) diagnosis based on chest CT findings. Two chest radiologists and two pulmonologists interpreted chest CTs of 66 patients with NTM-LD, 33 with pulmonary tuberculosis and 33 with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. These observers selected one of these diagnoses for each case without knowing any clinical information except age and sex. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated according to degree of observer confidence. Inter-observer agreement was assessed using Fleiss' κ values. Multiple logistic regression was performed to elucidate which radiological features led to the correct diagnosis. The sensitivity of NTM-LD diagnosis was 56.4 % (95 % CI 47.9-64.7) and specificity 80.3 % (73.1-86.0). The specificity of NTM-LD diagnosis increased with confidence: 44.4 % (20.5-71.3) for possible, 77.4 % (67.4-85.0) for probable, 95.2 % (87.2-98.2) for definite (P < 0.001) diagnoses. Inter-observer agreement for NTM-LD diagnosis was moderate (κ = 0.453). Tree-in-bud pattern (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.24, P < 0.001), consolidation (aOR 1.92, P = 0.036) and atelectasis (aOR 3.73, P < 0.001) were associated with correct NTM-LD diagnoses, whereas presence of pleural effusion (aOR 0.05, P < 0.001) led to false diagnoses. NTM-LD diagnosis based on chest CT findings is specific but not sensitive. (orig.)

Improved implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor surgical outcome quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Keefe, Matthew J; Loda, Justin B; Elhabashy, Ahmad E; Woodall, William H

2017-06-01

The traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart for monitoring surgical outcome quality requires waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery before incorporating patient outcome information. We propose a simple but powerful implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart that incorporates outcome information as soon as it is available, rather than waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery. A simulation study is presented that compares the performance of the traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to our improved implementation. We show that incorporating patient outcome information as soon as it is available leads to quicker detection of process deterioration. Deterioration of surgical performance could be detected much sooner using our proposed implementation, which could lead to the earlier identification of problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Beyond preadoptive risk: The impact of adoptive family environment on adopted youth's psychosocial adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Juye; Brooks, Devon; Barth, Richard P; Kim, Hansung

2010-07-01

Adopted children often are exposed to preadoptive stressors--such as prenatal substance exposure, child maltreatment, and out-of-home placements--that increase their risks for psychosocial maladjustment. Psychosocial adjustment of adopted children emerges as the product of pre- and postadoptive factors. This study builds on previous research, which fails to simultaneously assess the influences of pre- and postadoptive factors, by examining the impact of adoptive family sense of coherence on adoptee's psychosocial adjustment beyond the effects of preadoptive risks. Using a sample of adoptive families (n = 385) taking part in the California Long Range Adoption Study, structural equation modeling analyses were performed. Results indicate a significant impact of family sense of coherence on adoptees' psychosocial adjustment and a considerably less significant role of preadoptive risks. The findings suggest the importance of assessing adoptive family's ability to respond to stress and of helping families to build and maintain their capacity to cope with stress despite the sometimes fractious pressures of adoption.

Issues in practical model-based diagnosis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, R.R.; Bakker, R.R.; van den Bempt, P.C.A.; van den Bempt, P.C.A.; Mars, Nicolaas; Out, D.-J.; Out, D.J.; van Soest, D.C.; van Soes, D.C.

1993-01-01

The model-based diagnosis project at the University of Twente has been directed at improving the practical usefulness of model-based diagnosis. In cooperation with industrial partners, the research addressed the modeling problem and the efficiency problem in model-based reasoning. Main results of

Cancer Risk in Relatives of Testicular Cancer Patients by Histology Type and Age at Diagnosis: A Joint Study from Five Nordic Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Kharazmi, Elham; Hemminki, Kari; Pukkala, Eero; Sundquist, Kristina; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Tretli, Steinar; Olsen, Jörgen H; Fallah, Mahdi

2015-08-01

None of the population-based epidemiologic studies to date has had a large enough sample size to show the familial risk of testicular cancer (TC) by age at diagnosis for patients and their relatives or for rare histologic subtypes. To estimate absolute and relative risks of TC in relatives of TC patients by age at diagnosis in patients and their relatives and histological subtypes. In a joint population-based cohort study, 97 402 first-degree relatives of 21 254 TC patients who were diagnosed between 1955 and 2010 in five European countries were followed for cancer incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated using histology-, age-, period-, and country-specific incidence rates as references. Lifetime cumulative risks were also calculated. The lifetime cumulative risk of TC in brothers of a patient with TC was 2.3%, which represents a fourfold increase in risk (SIR 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6-4.6) compared to the general population. TC in a father increased the risk by up to twofold in his son (95% CI 1.7-2.4; lifetime risk 1.2%) and vice versa. When there were two or more TC patients diagnosed in a family, the lifetime TC risk for relatives was 10-11%. Depending on age at diagnosis, twins had a 9-74% lifetime risk of TC. Family history of most of the histologic subtypes of TC increased the risk of concordant and most discordant subtypes. There was a tendency toward concordant age at diagnosis of TC among relatives. This study provides clinically relevant age-specific cancer risk estimates for relatives of TC patients. Familial TC patients tended to develop TC at an age close to the age at diagnosis of TC among their relatives, which is a novel finding of this study. This joint European population study showed that sons and brothers of testicular cancer patients are at higher risk of developing this cancer at an age close to the age at diagnosis of their relatives. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

Science.gov (United States)

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

2017-01-01

Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

2017-12-01

Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.

Risk of Fractures in Youths with Celiac Disease-A Population-Based Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Canova, Cristina; Pitter, Gisella; Zanier, Loris; Simonato, Lorenzo; Michaelsson, Karl; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2018-04-19

To assess the risk of any fracture requiring hospital care in a cohort of individuals with celiac disease diagnosed in childhood/adolescence compared with reference individuals matched by age and sex. Our study cohort consisted of 213 635 people born and residing in Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region, Italy, in 1989-2011. We selected, through pathology reports, hospital discharge records, or co-payment exemptions, 1233 individuals with celiac disease (aged 0-17 years at diagnosis) and compared them with 6167 reference individuals matched by sex and year of birth. Fractures were identified through hospital discharge records. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for any fracture after celiac disease diagnosis (or index date for reference individuals) with Cox regression and ORs for any fracture before celiac disease diagnosis with conditional logistic regression. During the follow-up period (maximum 23 years), 22 individuals with celiac disease (9394 person-years) and 128 reference individuals (47 308 person-years) experienced a fracture, giving an overall HR of 0.87 (95% CI 0.55-1.37). The risk was not modified by sex, age at diagnosis, or calendar period of diagnosis. We obtained similar HRs when excluding fractures occurring after the age of 18 years and adjusting for maternal education or vitamin D supplementation. The odds of previous fracture also did not differ between subjects with celiac disease and reference individuals (22 and 96 cases, respectively: OR 1.15; 95% CI 0.72-1.84). We did not find any evidence of an increased risk of fractures during childhood and youth among patients with celiac disease. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

2014-05-01

Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

2016-09-06

Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

Repeat polymorphisms in ESR2 and AR and colorectal cancer risk and prognosis: results from a German population-based case-control study.

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Rudolph, Anja; Shi, Hong; Försti, Asta; Hoffmeister, Michael; Sainz, Juan; Jansen, Lina; Hemminki, Kari; Brenner, Hermann; Chang-Claude, Jenny

2014-11-07

Evidence has accumulated which suggests that sex steroids influence colorectal cancer development and progression. We therefore assessed the association of repeat polymorphisms in the estrogen receptor β gene (ESR2) and the androgen receptor gene (AR) with colorectal cancer risk and prognosis. The ESR2 CA and AR CAG repeat polymorphisms were genotyped in 1798 cases (746 female, 1052 male) and 1810 controls (732 female, 1078 male), matched for sex, age and county of residence. Colorectal cancer risk associations overall and specific for gender were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for sex, county of residence and age. Associations with overall and disease-specific survival were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for established prognostic factors (diagnosis of other cancer after colorectal cancer diagnosis, detection by screening, treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy, tumour extent, nodal status, distant metastasis, body mass index, age at diagnosis and year of diagnosis) and stratified for grade of differentiation. Heterogeneity in gender specific associations was assessed by comparing models with and without a multiplicative interaction term by means of a likelihood ratio test. The average number of ESR2 CA repeats was associated with a small 5% increase in colorectal cancer risk (OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10) without significant heterogeneity according to gender or tumoural ESR2 expression. We found no indication for an association between the AR CAG repeat polymorphisms and risk of colorectal cancer. The ESR2 CA and AR CAG repeat polymorphisms were not associated with overall survival or disease specific survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis. Higher numbers of ESR2 CA repeats are potentially associated with a small increase in colorectal cancer risk. Our study does not support an association between colorectal cancer prognosis and the investigated repeat polymorphisms.

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Age-adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

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U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA age-adjusted prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the...

Autoimmune diseases and severe infections as risk factors for schizophrenia: a 30-year population-based register study.

Science.gov (United States)

Benros, Michael E; Nielsen, Philip R; Nordentoft, Merete; Eaton, William W; Dalton, Susanne O; Mortensen, Preben B

2011-12-01

Autoimmune diseases have been associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia. It has been suggested that brain-reactive autoantibodies are part of the mechanisms behind this association. Furthermore, an increased permeability of the blood-brain barrier has been observed during periods of infection and inflammation. The authors therefore investigated whether autoimmune diseases combined with exposures to severe infections may increase the risk of schizophrenia Nationwide population-based registers in Denmark were linked, and the data were analyzed in a cohort study using survival analysis. All analyses were adjusted for calendar year, age, and sex. Incidence rate ratios and accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs) as measures of relative risk were used. A prior autoimmune disease increased the risk of schizophrenia by 29% (incidence rate ratio=1.29; 95% CI=1.18-1.41). Any history of hospitalization with infection increased the risk of schizophrenia by 60% (incidence rate ratio=1.60; 95% CI=1.56-1.64). When the two risk factors were combined, the risk of schizophrenia was increased even further (incidence rate ratio=2.25; 95% CI=2.04-2.46). The risk of schizophrenia was increased in a dose-response relationship, where three or more infections and an autoimmune disease were associated with an incidence rate ratio of 3.40 (95% CI=2.91-3.94). The results remained significant after adjusting for substance use disorders and family history of psychiatric disorders. Hospital contact with infection occurred in nearly 24% of individuals prior to a schizophrenia diagnosis. Autoimmune disease and the number of infections requiring hospitalization are risk factors for schizophrenia. The increased risk is compatible with an immunological hypothesis in subgroups of schizophrenia patients.

A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Subdistribution with Covariates-adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

He, Peng; Eriksson, Frank; Scheike, Thomas H.

2016-01-01

function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate-adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate-adjusted weight......With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution...... and the covariates are independent. Covariate-dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate-dependent censoring. We consider a covariate-adjusted weight...

Knowledge-based diagnosis for aerospace systems

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, David J.

1988-01-01

The need for automated diagnosis in aerospace systems and the approach of using knowledge-based systems are examined. Research issues in knowledge-based diagnosis which are important for aerospace applications are treated along with a review of recent relevant research developments in Artificial Intelligence. The design and operation of some existing knowledge-based diagnosis systems are described. The systems described and compared include the LES expert system for liquid oxygen loading at NASA Kennedy Space Center, the FAITH diagnosis system developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the PES procedural expert system developed at SRI International, the CSRL approach developed at Ohio State University, the StarPlan system developed by Ford Aerospace, the IDM integrated diagnostic model, and the DRAPhys diagnostic system developed at NASA Langley Research Center.

Community-Based HIV-1 Early Diagnosis and Risk Behavior Analysis of Men Having Sex with Men in Hong Kong.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianguo Liang

Full Text Available The increasing prevalence of HIV-1 among men having sex with men (MSM calls for an investigation of HIV-1 prevalence and incidence in MSM by early diagnosis to assist with early preventive interventions in Hong Kong. The participants were recruited randomly from MSM communities within a one-year period. Rapid HIV Test (RHT and real-time dried blood spot (DBS-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction (DBS-qPCR were used for the early diagnosis of 474 participants. Risk behavior analysis was performed by studying information obtained from the participants during the study period. The HIV-1 prevalence and incident rates in the studied MSM population were 4.01% (19/474 and 1.47% (7/474, respectively. Three infected participants were found at the acute phase of infection by DBS-qPCR. Only 46.4% (220/474 MSM were using condoms regularly for anal sex. HIV infection significantly correlated with unprotected receptive anal sex and syphilis infection. An increased number of infections was found among foreign MSM in Hong Kong. This study is the first to use DBS-qPCR to identify acutely infected individuals in a community setting and to provide both the prevalence and incident rates of HIV-1 infection among MSM in Hong Kong. The risk analysis provided evidence that behavior intervention strengthening is necessary to fight against the increasing HIV-1 epidemic among MSM in Hong Kong and surrounding regions in Asia.

A population-based case-control study on statin exposure and risk of acute diverticular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Sköldberg, Filip; Svensson, Tobias; Olén, Ola; Hjern, Fredrik; Schmidt, Peter T; Ljung, Rickard

2016-01-01

A reduced risk of perforated diverticular disease among individuals with current statin exposure has been reported. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether statins reduce the risk of acute diverticular disease. A nation-wide population-based case-control study was performed, including 13,127 cases hospitalised during 2006-2010 with a first-time diagnosis of colonic diverticular disease, and 128,442 control subjects (matched for sex, age, county of residence and calendar year). Emergency surgery, assumed to be a proxy for complicated diverticulitis, was performed on 906 of the cases during the index admission, with 8818 matched controls. Statin exposure was classified as "current" or "former" if a statin prescription was last dispensed ≤ 125 days or >125 days before index date, respectively. The association between statin exposure and acute diverticular disease was investigated by conditional logistic regression, including models adjusting for country of birth, educational level, marital status, comorbidities, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug/steroid exposure and healthcare utilisation. A total of 1959 cases (14.9%) and 16,456 controls (12.8%) were current statin users (crude OR 1.23 [95% CI 1.17-1.30]; fully adjusted OR 1.00 [0.94-1.06]). One hundred and thirty-two of the cases subjected to surgery (14.6%), and 1441 of the corresponding controls (16.3%) were current statin users (crude OR 0.89 [95% CI 0.73-1.08]; fully adjusted OR 0.70 [0.55-0.89]). The results do not indicate that statins affect the development of symptomatic diverticular disease in general. However, current statin use was associated with a reduced risk of emergency surgery for diverticular disease.

Bead-based competitive fluorescence immunoassay for sensitive and rapid diagnosis of cyanotoxin risk in drinking water.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hye-Weon; Jang, Am; Kim, Lan Hee; Kim, Sung-Jo; Kim, In S

2011-09-15

Due to the increased occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins in drinking water sources, effective management based on a sensitive and rapid analytical method is in high demand for security of safe water sources and environmental human health. Here, a competitive fluorescence immunoassay of microcystin-LR (MCYST-LR) is developed in an attempt to improve the sensitivity, analysis time, and ease-of-manipulation of analysis. To serve this aim, a bead-based suspension assay was introduced based on two major sensing elements: an antibody-conjugated quantum dot (QD) detection probe and an antigen-immobilized magnetic bead (MB) competitor. The assay was composed of three steps: the competitive immunological reaction of QD detection probes against analytes and MB competitors, magnetic separation and washing, and the optical signal generation of QDs. The fluorescence intensity was found to be inversely proportional to the MCYST-LR concentration. Under optimized conditions, the proposed assay performed well for the identification and quantitative analysis of MCYST-LR (within 30 min in the range of 0.42-25 μg/L, with a limit of detection of 0.03 μg/L). It is thus expected that this enhanced assay can contribute both to the sensitive and rapid diagnosis of cyanotoxin risk in drinking water and effective management procedures.

Statin use and risk of endometrial cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sperling, Cecilie D.; Verdoodt, Freija; Friis, Soren

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Laboratory and epidemiological evidence have suggested that statin use may protect against the development of certain cancers, including endometrial cancer. In a nationwide registry-based case-control study, we examined the association between statin use and risk of endometrial cancer....... MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cases were female residents of Denmark with a primary diagnosis of endometrial cancer during 2000-2009. For each case, we selected 15 female population controls matched on date of birth (±one month) using risk-set sampling. Ever use of statin was defined as two or more prescriptions...... on separate dates. Conditional logistic regressions were used to estimate age-matched (by design) and multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for endometrial cancer associated with statin use. The multivariable-adjusted models included parity, hormone replacement therapy...

Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

2003-01-01

Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria may need adjustment based on MRI to estimate the presurgical risk of extrapelvic infiltration in patients with uterine endometrial cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudo, Satoko; Sakuragi, Noriaki [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Gynecology, Sapporo (Japan); Hattori, Naoya; Manabe, Osamu; Hirata, Kenji; Tamaki, Nagara [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kitaku, Sapporo (Japan); Kato, Fumi; Mimura, Rie; Magota, Keiichi; Sugimori, Hiroyuki [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Sapporo (Japan)

2015-04-01

The staging of endometrial cancer requires surgery which carries the risk of morbidity. FDG PET/CT combined with anatomical imaging may reduce the number of unnecessary lymphadenectomies by demonstrating the risk of extrapelvic infiltration. The purpose of this study was to optimize FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria for risk assessment in endometrial cancer after first-line risk triage with MRI. The study population comprised 37 patients who underwent curative surgery for the treatment of endometrial cancer. First, the risk of extrapelvic infiltration was triaged using MRI. Second, multiple glucose metabolic profiles of the primary lesion were assessed with FDG PET/CT, and these were correlated with the histopathological risk of extrapelvic infiltration including lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) and high-grade malignancy (grades 2 and 3). The results of histological correlation were used to adjust FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria. Presurgical assessment using MRI was positive for deep (>50 %) myometrial invasion in 17 patients. The optimal FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria vary depending on the results of MRI. Specifically, SUVmax (≥16.0) was used to indicate LVSI risk with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 88.2 % in patients with MRI findings showing myometrial invasion. High-grade malignancy did not correlate with any of metabolic profiles in this patient group. In the remaining patients without myometrial invasion, lesion glycolysis (LG) or metabolic volume were better indicators of LVSI than SUVmax with the same diagnostic accuracy of 80.0 %. In addition, LG (≥26.9) predicted high-grade malignancy with an accuracy of 72.2 %. Using the optimized cut-off criteria for LVSI, glucose metabolic profiling of primary lesions correctly predicted lymph node metastasis with an accuracy of 73.0 %, which was comparable with the accuracy of visual assessment for lymph node metastasis using MRI and FDG PET/CT. FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria may need adjustment based on the

Fertility problems and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Signe; Kjær, Susanne K; Jørgensen, M. E.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether women with a history of fertility problems have a higher risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) than women without a history of fertility problems after adjustment for maternal factors. Design Nationwide population-based cohort study. Setting Not applicable...... of diabetes, level of education, and smoking during pregnancy. Result(s) In total, 7,433 (2%) pregnant women received a diagnosis of GDM. Multivariate analysis showed that pregnant women with a history of fertility problems had a statistically significantly higher risk of GDM than pregnant women without...

Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andressa Magalhães Teixeira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. Method: an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. Results: altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. Conclusions: risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation.

Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

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Zuhairan Y Yunan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

Association between alcohol, cannabis, and other illicit substance abuse and risk of developing schizophrenia: a nationwide population based register study.

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Nielsen, S M; Toftdahl, N G; Nordentoft, M; Hjorthøj, C

2017-07-01

Several studies have examined whether use of substances can cause schizophrenia. However, due to methodological limitations in the existing literature (e.g. selection bias and lack of adjustment of co-abuse) uncertainties still remain. We aimed to investigate whether substance abuse increases the risk of developing schizophrenia, addressing some of these limitations. The longitudinal, nationwide Danish registers were linked to establish a cohort of 3 133 968 individuals (105 178 673 person-years at risk), identifying 204 505 individuals diagnosed with substance abuse and 21 305 diagnosed with schizophrenia. Information regarding substance abuse was extracted from several registers and did not include psychotic symptoms caused by substance abuse in the definition. This resulted in a large, generalizable sample of exposed individuals. The data was analysed using Cox regression analyses, and adjusted for calendar year, gender, urbanicity, co-abuse, other psychiatric diagnosis, parental substance abuse, psychiatric history, immigration and socioeconomic status. A diagnosis of substance abuse increased the overall risk of developing schizophrenia [hazard ratio (HR) 6.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.84-6.26]. Cannabis (HR 5.20, 95% CI 4.86-5.57) and alcohol (HR 3.38, 95% CI 3.24-3.53) presented the strongest associations. Abuse of hallucinogens (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.43-2.41), sedatives (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.49-1.90), and other substances (HR 2.85, 95% CI 2.58-3.15) also increased the risk significantly. The risk was found to be significant even 10-15 years subsequent to a diagnosis of substance abuse. Our results illustrate robust associations between almost any type of substance abuse and an increased risk of developing schizophrenia later in life.

Risk of bipolar disorder in patients with COPD: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Pei-Jung; Liao, Yin-To; Lee, Charles Tzu-Chi; Hsu, Chung-Yao; Hsieh, Ming-Hong; Tsai, Chia-Jui; Hsieh, Ming-Han; Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung

2016-01-01

Few studies have investigated the relationship between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and bipolar outcomes in the world. We sought to investigate the association between COPD and risk of bipolar disorder in a large national sample. The insured aged 15 years or more with a new primary diagnosis of COPD (ICD-9: 491, 492, 494 and 496) between 2000 and 2007 were identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We included individuals with an inpatient diagnosis of COPD and/or at least 1 year of two diagnoses of COPD in outpatient services. These 35,558 cases were compared to 35,558 sex-, age-, residence- and insurance premium-matched controls. We followed both groups until the end of 2008 for incidence of bipolar disorder, defined as ICD-9 codes 296.0-296.16, 296.4-296.81 and 296.89. Competing risk-adjusted Cox regression analyses were applied with adjusting for sex, age, residence, insurance premium, prednisone use, Charlson comorbidity index, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, cardiovascular diseases, hospital admission days, outpatients' visits and mortality. Of the total 71,116 subjects, 202 were newly diagnosed with bipolar disorder during the study period. The mean follow-up time was 6.0 (SD=2.2) years. COPD, younger age, lower economic status, lower dose of prednisone use, higher hospital admission days and higher outpatient visits were independent predictors of bipolar disorder. COPD was associated with increased risk of bipolar disorder independent of a number of potential confounding factors in this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term prediction of prostate cancer diagnosis and death using PSA and obesity related anthropometrics at early middle age: data from the malmö preventive project.

Science.gov (United States)

Assel, Melissa J; Gerdtsson, Axel; Thorek, Daniel L J; Carlsson, Sigrid V; Malm, Johan; Scardino, Peter T; Vickers, Andrew; Lilja, Hans; Ulmert, David

2018-01-19

To evaluate whether anthropometric parameters add to PSA measurements in middle-aged men for risk assessment of prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and death. After adjusting for PSA, both BMI and weight were significantly associated with an increased risk of PCa death with the odds of a death corresponding to a 10 kg/m2 or 10 kg increase being 1.58 (95% CI 1.10, 2.28; p = 0.013) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02, 1.26; p = 0.016) times greater, respectively. AUCs did not meaningfully increase with the addition of weight or BMI to prediction models including PSA. In 1974 to 1986, 22,444 Swedish men aged 44 to 50 enrolled in Malmö Preventive Project, Sweden, and provided blood samples and anthropometric data. Rates of PSA screening in the cohort were very low. Documentation of PCa diagnosis and disease-specific death up to 2014 was retrieved through national registries. Among men with anthropometric measurements available at baseline, a total of 1692 men diagnosed with PCa were matched to 4190 controls, and 464 men who died of disease were matched to 1390 controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to determine whether diagnosis or death from PCa were associated with weight and body mass index (BMI) at adulthood after adjusting for PSA. Men with higher BMI and weight at early middle age have an increased risk of PCa diagnosis and death after adjusting for PSA. However, in a multi-variable numerical statistical model, BMI and weight do not importantly improve the predictive accuracy of PSA. Risk-stratification of screening should be based on PSA without reference to anthropometrics.

Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

OpenAIRE

Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after exposure to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination or infection: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghaderi, Sara; Gunnes, Nina; Bakken, Inger Johanne; Magnus, Per; Trogstad, Lill; Håberg, Siri Eldevik

2016-01-01

Vaccinations and infections are possible triggers of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). However, studies on GBS after vaccinations during the influenza A(H1N1)pmd09 pandemic in 2009, show inconsistent results. Only few studies have addressed the role of influenza infection. We used information from national health data-bases with information on the total Norwegian population (N = 4,832,211). Cox regression analyses with time-varying covariates and self-controlled case series was applied. The risk of being hospitalized with GBS during the pandemic period, within 42 days after an influenza diagnosis or pandemic vaccination was estimated. There were 490 GBS cases during 2009-2012 of which 410 cases occurred after October 1, 2009 of which 46 new cases occurred during the peak period of the influenza pandemic. An influenza diagnosis was registered for 2.47% of the population and the vaccination coverage was 39.25%. The incidence rate ratio of GBS during the pandemic peak relative to other periods was 1.46 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.98]. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of GBS within 42 days after a diagnosis of pandemic influenza was 4.89 (95% CI 1.17-20.36). After pandemic vaccination the adjusted HR was 1.11 (95% CI 0.51-2.43). Our results indicated that there was a significantly increased risk of GBS during the pandemic season and after pandemic influenza infection. However, vaccination did not increase the risk of GBS. The small number of GBS cases in this study warrants caution in the interpretation of the findings.

Are people at high risk for diabetes visiting health facility for confirmation of diagnosis? A population-based study from rural India.

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasapura Venkateshmurthy, Nikhil; Soundappan, Kathirvel; Gummidi, Balaji; Bhaskara Rao, Malipeddi; Tandon, Nikhil; Reddy, K Srinath; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Mohan, Sailesh

2018-01-01

India is witnessing a rising burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus. India's National Programme for Prevention and Control of Diabetes, Cancer, Cardiovascular diseases and Stroke recommends population-based screening and referral to primary health centre for diagnosis confirmation and treatment initiation. However, little is known about uptake of confirmatory tests among screen positives. To estimate the uptake of confirmatory tests and identify the reasons for not undergoing confirmation by those at high risk for developing diabetes. We analysed data collected under project UDAY, a comprehensive diabetes and hypertension prevention and management programme, being implemented in rural Andhra Pradesh, India. Under UDAY, population-based screening for diabetes was carried out by project health workers using a diabetes risk score and capillary blood glucose test. Participants at high risk for diabetes were asked to undergo confirmatory tests. On follow-up visit, health workers assessed if the participant had undergone confirmation and ask for reasons if not so. Of the 35,475 eligible adults screened between April 2015 and August 2016, 10,960 (31%) were determined to be at high risk. Among those at high risk, 9670 (88%) were followed up, and of those, only 616 (6%) underwent confirmation. Of those who underwent confirmation, 'lack of symptoms of diabetes warranting visit to health facility' (52%) and 'being at high risk was not necessary enough to visit' (41%) were the most commonly reported reasons for non-confirmation. Inconvenient facility time (4.4%), no nearby facility (3.2%), un-affordability (2.2%) and long waiting time (1.6%) were the common health system-related factors that affected the uptake of the confirmatory test. Confirmation of diabetes was abysmally low in the study population. Low uptake of the confirmatory test might be due to low 'risk perception'. The uptake can be increased by improving the population risk perception through individual and

[Susceptibility to strategy of the drug component of the IPHCC+RxGroups classification system in a risk-adjusted morbidity compensation scheme--a conceptional and data-supported analysis].

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Behrend, C; Felder, S; Busse, R

2007-01-01

A report commissioned by the German Ministry of Health recommends to the existing scheme for calculating risk-adjusted transfers to sickness funds supplement with the IPHCC+RxGroups method. The method is based on inpatient diagnoses and prescribed drugs as health status measures deduced from prior use. The present study investigates the sickness fund's expected net return from gaming based on the drug component of the risk adjuster. The study explores three possible strategies using the RxGroups method. For the stimulations, insurees are assigned to additional indications or to higher valued RxGroups within the same indication. Then, costs and financial benefits attributable to the altered drug use are estimated and compared with the status quo. The study uses 2000 and 2001 sample data of more than 370,000 insurees of Germany's company-based sickness funds system (BKK). While upgrading increases overall costs, it can be beneficial for the individual sickness funds. Their net return crucially depends on the number of sickness funds gaming the system: the more participating in the game, the smaller is the average net return. Moreover, not participating often is even worse, which in turn points to a prisoner's dilemma. When extending the risk adjustment scheme in social health insurance, the German legislator should take into account the perverse incentives of risk adjusters such as the described prescription drug model.

Association among depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, sleep disturbance, and suicidal ideation in Taiwanese adolescent.

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Chung, Ming-Shun; Chiu, Hsien-Jane; Sun, Wen-Jung; Lin, Chieh-Nan; Kuo, Chien-Cheng; Huang, Wei-Che; Chen, Ying-Sheue; Cheng, Hui-Ping; Chou, Pesus

2014-09-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the association among depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, sleep disturbance, and suicidal ideation in Taiwanese adolescent. We recruited 607 students (grades 5-9) to fill out the investigation of basic data and sleep disturbance. Psychiatrists then used the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview-Kid to interview these students to assess their suicidal ideation and psychiatric diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression with forward conditionals was used to find the risk factors for multivariate analysis. Female, age, depressive disorder, adjustment disorder, and poor sleep all contributed to adolescent suicidal ideation in univariate analysis. However, poor sleep became non-significant under the control of depressive disorder and adjustment disorder. We found that both depressive disorder and adjustment disorder play important roles in sleep and adolescent suicidal ideation. After controlling both depressive disorder and adjustment disorder, sleep disturbance was no longer a risk of adolescent suicidal ideation. We also confirm the indirect influence of sleep on suicidal ideation in adolescent. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Association of influenza vaccination and reduced risk of stroke hospitalization among the elderly: a population-based case-control study.

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Lin, Hui-Chen; Chiu, Hui-Fen; Ho, Shu-Chen; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2014-04-02

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of influenza vaccination (and annual revaccination) on the risk of stroke admissions. We conducted a population-based case-control study in Taiwan. Cases consisted of patients >65 years of age who had a first-time diagnosis of stroke during the influenza seasons from 2006 to 2009. Controls were selected by matching age, sex, and index date to cases. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Ever vaccinated individuals in the current vaccination season were associated with a reduced risk of ischemic stroke admissions (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.60-0.97). Compared with individuals never vaccinated against influenza during the past 5 years, the adjusted ORs were 0.92 (95% CI = 0.68-1.23) for the group with 1 or 2 vaccinations, 0.73 (95% CI = 0.54-1.00) for the group with 3 or 4 vaccinations, and 0.56 (95% CI = 0.38-0.83) for the group with 5 vaccinations. There was a significant trend of decreasing risk of ischemic stroke admissions with an increasing number of vaccinations. This study provides evidence that vaccination against influenza may reduce the risk of hospitalization for ischemic stroke and that annual revaccination provides greater protection.

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

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Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

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Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

2009-05-01

To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

2011-01-01

Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

Reproductive Status at First Diagnosis Influences Risk of Radiation-Induced Second Primary Contralateral Breast Cancer in the WECARE Study

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Brooks, Jennifer D., E-mail: brooksj@mskcc.org [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States); Boice, John D. [International Epidemiology Institute, Rockville, MD and Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt School of Medicine, Nashville, TN (United States); Stovall, Marilyn [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Reiner, Anne S. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States); Bernstein, Leslie [Division of Cancer Etiology, Department of Population Sciences, Beckman Research Institute and City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center, Duarte, CA (United States); John, Esther M. [Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Fremont, CA, and Stanford University School of Medicine and Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford, CA (United States); Lynch, Charles F. [Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States); Mellemkjaer, Lene [Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen (Denmark); Knight, Julia A. [Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto and Samuel Lunenfeld Research Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Thomas, Duncan C.; Haile, Robert W. [Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Smith, Susan A. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Capanu, Marinela; Bernstein, Jonine L. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States); Shore, Roy E. [Department of Environmental Medicine, New York University, New York, NY (United States); Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima (Japan)

2012-11-15

Purpose: Our study examined whether reproductive and hormonal factors before, at the time of, or after radiation treatment for a first primary breast cancer modify the risk of radiation-induced second primary breast cancer. Methods and Materials: The Women's Environmental, Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study is a multicenter, population-based study of 708 women (cases) with asynchronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and 1399 women (controls) with unilateral breast cancer. Radiotherapy (RT) records, coupled with anthropomorphic phantom simulations, were used to estimate quadrant-specific radiation dose to the contralateral breast for each patient. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed to assess the relationship between reproductive factors and risk of CBC. Results: Women who were nulliparous at diagnosis and exposed to {>=}1 Gy to the contralateral breast had a greater risk for CBC than did matched unexposed nulliparous women (RR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0). No increased risk was seen in RT-exposed parous women (RR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.4). Women treated with RT who later became pregnant (8 cases and 9 controls) had a greater risk for CBC (RR = 6.0; 95% CI, 1.3-28.4) than unexposed women (4 cases and 7 controls) who also became pregnant. The association of radiation with risk of CBC did not vary by number of pregnancies, history of breastfeeding, or menopausal status at the time of first breast cancer diagnosis. Conclusion: Nulliparous women treated with RT were at an increased risk for CBC. Although based on small numbers, women who become pregnant after first diagnosis also seem to be at an increased risk for radiation-induced CBC.

[Comparison of screening performance between primary high-risk HPV screening and high-risk HPV screening plus liquid-based cytology cotesting in diagnosis of cervical precancerous or cancerous lesions].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, X L; Remila, Rezhake; Hu, S Y; Zhang, L; Xu, X Q; Chen, F; Pan, Q J; Zhang, X; Zhao, F H

2018-05-06

Objective: To evaluate and compare the screening performance of primary high-risk HPV(HR-HPV) screening and HR-HPV screening plus liquid-based cytology (LBC) cotesting in diagnosis of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions (CIN2+). Methods: We pooled 17 population-based cross-sectional studies which were conducted across China from 1999 to 2008. After obtaining informed consent, all women received liquid-based cytology(LBC)testing, HR-HPV DNA testing. Totally 28 777 women with complete LBC, HPV and biopsy results were included in the final analysis. Screening performance of primary HR-HPV DNA screening and HPV screening plus LBC co-testing in diagnosis of CIN2+ were calculated and compared among different age groups. Results: Among the whole population, the detection rates of primary HR-HPV screening and HR-HPV screening plus LBC co-testing are 3.05% (879 CIN2+) and 3.13%(900 CIN2+), respectively. The sensitivity were 96.4% and 98.7% (χ(2)=19.00, PHPV screening performed better than co-testing (AUC were 0.913 and 0.888; Z= 6.16, PHPV screening, co-testing showed significantly higher colposcopy referral rates (16.5% and 23.6%, respectively, χ(2)=132.00, PHPV screening in diagnosis of CIN2+, and was 12.5 (15.7%(288 cases) vs 1.3%(23 cases)) times as much as the detection rate of HR-HPV screening plus cytology contesting. Conclusion: Compared with primary HR-HPV screening, HR-HPV screening plus cytology co-testing does not show better results in the screening performance for CIN2+ detection, and the cost-effectiveness is not good enough, especially in younger age group.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome: Autopsy Based Approach to Diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asaranti Kar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Meckel-Gruber syndrome (MGS is a rare lethal congenital malformation affecting 1 in 13,250-140,000 live births. The classical diagnostic triad comprises multicystic dysplastic kidneys, occipital encephalocele, and postaxial polydactyly. It can variably be associated with other malformations such as cleft lip and palate, pulmonary hypoplasia, hepatic fibrosis, and anomalies of central nervous system. A 20 weeks fetus was diagnosed as MGS with classical features along with many other congenital abnormalities such as microcephaly, microphthalmia, hypertelorism, cleft lip and palate, neonatal teeth, and the right side club foot which were detected only after doing autopsy. This case is reported because of its rarity emphasizing the importance of neonatal autopsy in every case of fetal death, especially where the antenatal diagnosis has not been made previously. A systematic approach to accurate diagnosis of MGS based on autopsy will be described here which can allow recurrence risk counseling and proper management in future pregnancies.

Age-adjusted high-sensitivity troponin T cut-off value for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaeberich, Anja; Seeber, Valerie; Jiménez, David; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Dellas, Claudia; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Pruszczyk, Piotr; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

2015-05-01

High-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) helps in identifying pulmonary embolism patients at low risk of an adverse outcome. In 682 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients we investigate whether an optimised hsTnT cut-off value and adjustment for age improve the identification of patients at elevated risk. Overall, 25 (3.7%) patients had an adverse 30-day outcome. The established hsTnT cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) retained its high prognostic value (OR (95% CI) 16.64 (2.24-123.74); p=0.006) compared with the cut-off value of 33 pg·mL(-1) calculated by receiver operating characteristic analysis (7.14 (2.64-19.26); pvalue of 45 pg·mL(-1) but not the established cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) predicted an adverse outcome. An age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value (≥14 pg·mL(-1) for patients aged risk (12.4% adverse outcome). Risk assessment of normotensive pulmonary embolism patients was improved by the introduction of an age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value. A three-step approach helped identify patients at higher risk of an adverse outcome who might benefit from advanced therapy. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2015-09-15

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

2007-12-01

Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chong

2016-01-01

This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

The case for risk-based premiums in public health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Zweifel, Peter; Breuer, Michael

2006-04-01

Uniform, risk-independent insurance premiums are accepted as part of 'managed competition' in health care. However, they are not compatible with optimality of health insurance contracts in the presence of both ex ante and ex post moral hazard. They have adverse effects on insurer behaviour even if risk adjustment is taken into account. Risk-based premiums combined with means-tested, tax-financed transfers are advocated as an alternative.

Longitudinal Psychosocial Adjustment of Women to Human Papillomavirus Infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Yu-Yun; Wang, Wei-Ming; Fetzer, Susan Jane; Cheng, Ya-Min; Hsu, Keng-Fu

2018-05-29

The aim of this study was to examine the psychosocial adjustment trajectory, focusing on psychological distress, sexual relationships and health care information, as well as factors which have an impact on adjustment on receiving a positive diagnosis of human papillomavirus infection. Human papillomavirus is a common sexually transmitted infection in females. To date, knowledge of the longitudinal psychosocial response to the diagnosis of human papillomavirus is limited. A prospective longitudinal design was conducted with a convenience sample. Women aged 20-65 years old were followed at one, 6 and 12 months after a diagnosis of HPV. Participants completed measures of initial emotional distress and followed-up psychosocial adjustment. A mixed-effects model was applied to analyze the longitudinal changes in psychosocial adjustment. Seventy human papillomavirus positive women participated in the study with nearly 20% of the women reporting emotional distress during their first visit. Mixed-effects model analyses showed that a trajectory of psychosocial adjustment in health care orientation, sexual relationship and psychosocial distress occur from one to 6 months after HPV diagnosis. However, a declining trend from 6-12 months was significant in health care orientation. Initial emotional distress was associated with changes in psychological adjustment. Psychosocial adjustment to human papillomavirus was worse at one month compared with 6 and 12 months after diagnosis. Healthcare providers should offer health information and psychosocial support to women according to their disease progression. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

School Adjustment of Pupils with ADHD: Cognitive, Emotional and Temperament Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Perez, Noelia; Gonzalez-Salinas, Carmen

2013-01-01

From different research perspectives, the cognitive and emotional characteristics associated with ADHD in children have been identified as risk factors for the development of diverse adjustment problems in the school context. Research in nonclinical population can additionally help in understanding ADHD deficits, since children with specific…

Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F., E-mail: s_kudo@rea.or.jp [Instituto of Radiation Epidemiology, Radiation Effects Association, 1-9-16 Kajicho, Chiyoda-ku, 101-0044 Tokyo (Japan)

2015-10-15

Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F.

2015-10-01

Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

Long-term allopurinol use decreases the risk of prostate cancer in patients with gout: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, H-J; Kao, M-C; Tsai, P-S; Fan, Y-C; Huang, C-J

2017-09-01

Clinical observations indicated an increased risk of developing prostate cancer in gout patients. Chronic inflammation is postulated to be one crucial mechanism for prostate carcinogenesis. Allopurinol, a widely used antigout agent, possesses potent anti-inflammation capacity. We elucidated whether allopurinol decreases the risk of prostate cancer in gout patients. We analyzed data retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Database between January 2000 and December 2012. Patients diagnosed with gout during the study period with no history of prostate cancer and who had never used allopurinol were selected. Four allopurinol use cohorts (that is, allopurinol use (>365 days), allopurinol use (181-365 days), allopurinol use (91-180 days) and allopurinol use (31-90 days)) and one cohort without using allopurinol (that is, allopurinol use (No)) were included. The study end point was the diagnosis of new-onset prostate cancer. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and propensity score-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between the risk of prostate cancer and allopurinol treatment in gout patients after adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 25 770 gout patients (aged between 40 and 100 years) were included. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk of developing prostate cancer in the allopurinol use (>365 days) cohort was significantly lower than the allopurinol use (No) cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.45-0.9, P=0.011). After propensity score adjustment, the trend remained the same (adjusted HR=0.66, 95% CI=0.46-0.93, P=0.019). Long-term (more than 1 year) allopurinol use may associate with a decreased risk of prostate cancer in gout patients.

Risk of erectile dysfunction in transfusion-naive thalassemia men: a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

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Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-04-01

Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction. This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities.

Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimmel Marek

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

Ontology-Based Method for Fault Diagnosis of Loaders.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Feixiang; Liu, Xinhui; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Chen; Cao, Bingwei

2018-02-28

This paper proposes an ontology-based fault diagnosis method which overcomes the difficulty of understanding complex fault diagnosis knowledge of loaders and offers a universal approach for fault diagnosis of all loaders. This method contains the following components: (1) An ontology-based fault diagnosis model is proposed to achieve the integrating, sharing and reusing of fault diagnosis knowledge for loaders; (2) combined with ontology, CBR (case-based reasoning) is introduced to realize effective and accurate fault diagnoses following four steps (feature selection, case-retrieval, case-matching and case-updating); and (3) in order to cover the shortages of the CBR method due to the lack of concerned cases, ontology based RBR (rule-based reasoning) is put forward through building SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. An application program is also developed to implement the above methods to assist in finding the fault causes, fault locations and maintenance measures of loaders. In addition, the program is validated through analyzing a case study.

Maternal thyroid dysfunction and risk of seizure in the child

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Stine Linding; Laurberg, Peter; Wu, Chunsen

2013-01-01

Thyroid hormones are essential for brain development, and maternal thyroid disease may affect child neurocognitive development. Some types of seizures may also depend upon early exposure of the developing central nervous system, and we hypothesized that maternal thyroid dysfunction could increase...... the risk of seizure in the child. In a Danish population-based study we included 1,699,693 liveborn singletons, and from the Danish National Hospital Register we obtained information on maternal diagnosis of hyper- or hypothyroidism and neonatal seizure, febrile seizure, and epilepsy in the child. Maternal...... diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction before or after birth of the child was registered in two percent of the singleton births. In adjusted analyses, maternal hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism first time diagnosed after birth of the child were associated with a significant increased risk of epilepsy...

Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Szabo, Laszlo [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies C. Inca Garcilaso, 3. E-41092 Sevilla (Spain)

2010-07-15

Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment. (author)

Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf; Szabo, Laszlo

2010-01-01

Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment.

Fatherhood status and risk of prostate cancer: nationwide, population-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirén, Sara M; Drevin, Linda I; Carlsson, Sigrid V; Akre, Olof; Holmberg, Erik C; Robinson, David E; Garmo, Hans G; Stattin, Pär E

2013-08-15

Previous studies have shown a decreased risk of prostate cancer for childless men; however, the cause of the association remains to be elucidated. The aim of our study was to assess the risk of prostate cancer by fatherhood status, also considering potential confounding factors. In a case-control study in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden 2.0, a nationwide, population-based cohort, data on number of children, marital status, education, comorbidity and tumor characteristics obtained through nationwide healthcare registers and demographic databases for 117,328 prostate cancer cases and 562,644 controls, matched on birth year and county of residence, were analyzed. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for prostate cancer overall and by risk category, adjusting for marital status and education. Childless men had a decreased risk of prostate cancer compared to fathers, OR = 0.83 (95% CI = 0.82-0.84), and risk was lower for low-risk prostate cancer, OR = 0.74 (95% CI = 0.72-0.77), than for metastatic prostate cancer, OR = 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90-0.97). Adjustment for marital status and education attenuated the association in the low-risk category, adjusted OR = 0.87 (95% CI = 0.84-0.91), whereas OR for metastatic cancer remained virtually unchanged, adjusted OR = 0.92 (95% CI = 0.88-0.96). Our data indicate that the association between fatherhood status and prostate cancer to a large part is due to socioeconomic factors influencing healthcare-seeking behavior including testing of prostate-specific antigen levels. Copyright © 2013 UICC.

Fatherhood status and risk of prostate cancer: Nationwide, population-based case–control study

Science.gov (United States)

Wirén, Sara M; Drevin, Linda I; Carlsson, Sigrid V; Akre, Olof; Holmberg, Erik C; Robinson, David E; Garmo, Hans G; Stattin, Pär E

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown a decreased risk of prostate cancer for childless men; however, the cause of the association remains to be elucidated. The aim of our study was to assess the risk of prostate cancer by fatherhood status, also considering potential confounding factors. In a case–control study in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden 2.0, a nationwide, population-based cohort, data on number of children, marital status, education, comorbidity and tumor characteristics obtained through nationwide healthcare registers and demographic databases for 117,328 prostate cancer cases and 562,644 controls, matched on birth year and county of residence, were analyzed. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for prostate cancer overall and by risk category, adjusting for marital status and education. Childless men had a decreased risk of prostate cancer compared to fathers, OR = 0.83 (95% CI = 0.82–0.84), and risk was lower for low-risk prostate cancer, OR = 0.74 (95% CI = 0.72–0.77), than for metastatic prostate cancer, OR = 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90–0.97). Adjustment for marital status and education attenuated the association in the low-risk category, adjusted OR = 0.87 (95% CI = 0.84–0.91), whereas OR for metastatic cancer remained virtually unchanged, adjusted OR = 0.92 (95% CI = 0.88–0.96). Our data indicate that the association between fatherhood status and prostate cancer to a large part is due to socioeconomic factors influencing healthcare-seeking behavior including testing of prostate-specific antigen levels. PMID:23354735

Usefulness of administrative databases for risk adjustment of adverse events in surgical patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigo-Rincón, Isabel; Martin-Vizcaíno, Marta P; Tirapu-León, Belén; Zabalza-López, Pedro; Abad-Vicente, Francisco J; Merino-Peralta, Asunción; Oteiza-Martínez, Fabiola

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of clinical-administrative databases for the development of risk adjustment in the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. The study was conducted at the Hospital of Navarra, a tertiary teaching hospital in northern Spain. We studied 1602 hospitalizations of surgical patients from 2008 to 2010. We analysed 40 comorbidity variables included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement (NSQIP) Program of the American College of Surgeons using 2 sources of information: The clinical and administrative database (CADB) and the data extracted from the complete clinical records (CR), which was considered the gold standard. Variables were catalogued according to compliance with the established criteria: sensitivity, positive predictive value and kappa coefficient >0.6. The average number of comorbidities per study participant was 1.6 using the CR and 0.95 based on CADB (p<.0001). Thirteen types of comorbidities (accounting for 8% of the comorbidities detected in the CR) were not identified when the CADB was the source of information. Five of the 27 remaining comorbidities complied with the 3 established criteria; 2 pathologies fulfilled 2 criteria, whereas 11 fulfilled 1, and 9 did not fulfil any criterion. CADB detected prevalent comorbidities such as comorbid hypertension and diabetes. However, the CABD did not provide enough information to assess the variables needed to perform the risk adjustment proposed by the NSQIP for the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Association between global functioning at first schizophrenia diagnosis and treatment resistance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Horsdal, Henriette T; Wimberley, Theresa; Köhler-Forsberg, Ole

2017-01-01

individuals, severe functional impairment (GAF-F ≤ 30) was associated with TRS within 2 years after diagnosis (adjusted HR = 1.38 [95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.87). GAF-F had virtually no impact on the associations between investigated known risk factors and TRS. CONCLUSIONS: GAF-F was independently...

Internal hernia due to adjustable gastric band tubing: review of the literature and illustrative case video.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamed, Osama H; Simpson, Lashondria; Lomenzo, Emanuele; Kligman, Mark D

2013-11-01

Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) is a commonly performed bariatric procedure. Device-related morbidity is typically associated with the subcutaneous port or the band itself. Complications related to band tubing are unusual. Small bowel obstruction (SBO) after LAGB is a unique and serious complication; there is the potential of delayed diagnosis and the risk of closed-loop bowel obstruction. SBO secondary to internal hernia caused by band tubing is very rare, with only five cases reported in the literature. In this article, we describe our experience and provide an illustrative video of a case of SBO related to band tubing. We also provide a detailed review of the few previously published case reports. Based on the common features of our case and other published case reports, we hypothesize some risk factors that might lead to this unique morbidity of adjustable gastric band tubing and provide potential solutions to prevent this problem. Tubing-related SBO is a serious complication with the risk of closed-loop bowel obstruction. Urgent operative exploration is required to avoid bowel strangulation. To prevent recurrence we advise functionally shortening the tubing by tucking it to the right upper quadrant above the liver and also provide some omental coverage between the bowel and band tubing if possible.

Risk of complications in coeliac patients depends on age at diagnosis and type of clinical presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Biagi, Federico; Schiepatti, Annalisa; Maiorano, Gregorio; Fraternale, Giacomo; Agazzi, Simona; Zingone, Fabiana; Ciacci, Carolina; Volta, Umberto; Caio, Giacomo; Tortora, Raffaella; Klersy, Catherine; Corazza, Gino R

2018-06-01

Coeliac disease is characterised by an increased mortality mostly due to its complications. To study the risk of developing complications according to clinical presentation and age at diagnosis, a combined retrospective-prospective longitudinal study was performed in three Italian centres. Incidence of complications and mortality rates were calculated using type and age at diagnosis of coeliac disease, sex, and centre of diagnosis as predictors. Patients referred after being found to suffer from coeliac disease elsewhere were excluded. Between 01/1999 and 06/2015, 2225 adult coeliac patients were directly diagnosed in our centres. 17 of them developed a complication and 29 died. In patients older than 60 years at diagnosis of coeliac disease, the risk of complication is 18 times higher than in patients diagnosed at 18-40 years and 9 times higher than in patients diagnosed at 40-60 years. Classical presentation increases the risk of complications by 7 times compared to non-classical presentation; in asymptomatic patients the risk of complication is virtually absent. The risk of developing complications in coeliac patients is linked to age at diagnosis of coeliac disease and type of clinical presentation. Follow-up methods of coeliac patients should be tailored according to these parameters. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Household adjustment to flood risk: a survey of coastal residents in Texas and Florida, United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Samuel D; Lee, Yoonjeong; Highfield, Wesley E

2017-07-01

Individual households have increasingly borne responsibility for reducing the adverse impacts of flooding on their property. Little observational research has been conducted, however, at the household level to examine the major factors contributing to the selection of a particular household adjustment. This study addresses the issue by evaluating statistically the factors influencing the adoption of various household flood hazard adjustments. The results indicate that respondents with higher-value homes or longer housing tenure are more likely to adopt structural and expensive techniques. In addition, the information source and the Community Rating System (CRS) score for the jurisdiction where the household is located have a significant bearing on household adjustment. In contrast, proximity to risk zones and risk perception yield somewhat mixed results or behave counter to assumptions in the literature. The study findings provide insights that will be of value to governments and decision-makers interested in encouraging homeowners to take protective action given increasing flood risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Fault Features Extraction and Identification based Rolling Bearing Fault Diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin, B; Sun, G D; Zhang L Y; Wang J G; HU, J

2017-01-01

For the fault classification model based on extreme learning machine (ELM), the diagnosis accuracy and stability of rolling bearing is greatly influenced by a critical parameter, which is the number of nodes in hidden layer of ELM. An adaptive adjustment strategy is proposed based on vibrational mode decomposition, permutation entropy, and nuclear kernel extreme learning machine to determine the tunable parameter. First, the vibration signals are measured and then decomposed into different fault feature models based on variation mode decomposition. Then, fault feature of each model is formed to a high dimensional feature vector set based on permutation entropy. Second, the ELM output function is expressed by the inner product of Gauss kernel function to adaptively determine the number of hidden layer nodes. Finally, the high dimension feature vector set is used as the input to establish the kernel ELM rolling bearing fault classification model, and the classification and identification of different fault states of rolling bearings are carried out. In comparison with the fault classification methods based on support vector machine and ELM, the experimental results show that the proposed method has higher classification accuracy and better generalization ability. (paper)

Maintenance therapy of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia revisited—Should drug doses be adjusted by white blood cell, neutrophil, or lymphocyte counts?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmiegelow, Kjeld; Nersting, Jacob; Nielsen, Stine Nygaard

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: 6-Mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate (MTX) based maintenance therapy is a critical phase of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia treatment. Wide interindividual variations in drug disposition warrant frequent doses adjustments, but there is a lack of international consensus on dose...... levels of 6-thioguanine nucleotides or MTX (including its polyglutamates) to be significant relapse predictors. The parameters significantly associated with risk of relapse (N = 83) were male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 2.0 [1.3-3.1], P = 0.003), WBC at diagnosis (HR = 1.04 per 10 × 10(9) /l rise [1...

Risk of suicide in male prison inmates.

Science.gov (United States)

Saavedra, Javier; López, Marcelino

2015-01-01

Many studies have demonstrated that the risk of suicide in prison is higher than in the general population. This study has two aims. First, to explore the risk of suicide in men sentenced in Andalusian prisons. And second, to study the sociodemographic, criminal and, especially, psychopathological factors associated with this risk. An assessment was made of 472 sentenced inmates in two Andalusian prisons, and included a sociodemographic interview, the IPDE personality disorders questionnaire, the SCID-I diagnostic interview (DSMIV), and the Plutchick suicide risk questionnaire. The interviewers were experienced clinical psychologists with training in prison environments. Adjusted ORs were calculated using a logistic regression. A risk of committing suicide was detected in 33.5% of the sample. The diagnoses (lifetime prevalence) of affective disorder (adjusted OR 3329), substance dependence disorders (adjusted OR 2733), personality disorders (adjusted OR 3115) and anxiety disorder (adjusted OR 1650), as well as a family psychiatric history (adjusted OR 1650), were the predictors that remained as risk factors after the regression analysis. No socio-demographic risk factor was significant in the regression analysis. The psychopathological variables are essential and the most powerful factors to explain suicide risk in prisons. A correct and systematic diagnosis, and an appropriate treatment by mental health professionals during the imprisonment are essential to prevent the risk of suicide. Copyright © 2013 SEP y SEPB. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Diabetes mellitus in Zambia and the Western Cape province of South Africa: Prevalence, risk factors, diagnosis and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Sarah Lou; Ayles, Helen; Beyers, Nulda; Godfrey-Faussett, Peter; Muyoyeta, Monde; du Toit, Elizabeth; Yudkin, John S; Floyd, Sian

2016-08-01

To determine the prevalence of and risk factors for diabetes mellitus and examine its diagnosis and management in the study communities. This is a population-based cross-sectional study among adults in 24 communities from Zambia and the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa. Diabetes is defined as a random blood glucose concentration (RBG)⩾11.1mmol/L, or RBGdiabetes diagnosis. For individuals with a prior diagnosis of diabetes, RBGprevalence of diabetes was 3.5% and 7.2% respectively. The highest risk groups identified were those of older age and those with obesity. Of those identified to have diabetes, 34.5% in Zambia and 12.7% in WC were previously unaware of their diagnosis. Among Zambian participants with diabetes, this proportion was lower among individuals with better education or with higher household socio-economic position. Of all those with previously diagnosed diabetes, 66.0% in Zambia and 59.4% in WC were not on any diabetes treatment, and 34.4% in Zambia and 32.7% in WC had a RBG concentration beyond the recommended level, ⩾7.8mmol/L. The diabetes risk factor profile for our study communities is similar to that seen in high-income populations. A high proportion of individuals with diabetes are not on diabetes treatment and of those on treatment a high proportion have high glycaemic concentrations. Such data may assist in healthcare planning to ensure timely diagnosis and management of diabetes. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Increased dementia risk predominantly in diabetes mellitus rather than in hypertension or hyperlipidemia: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Yen-Chun; Hsu, Jung-Lung; Tung, Hong-Yi; Chou, Chia-Chi; Bai, Chyi-Huey

2017-02-06

The pathophysiology of insulin resistance-induced hypertension and hyperlipidemia might entail differences in dementia risk in cases with hypertension and hyperlipidemia without prior diabetes mellitus (DM). This study investigated whether incident hypertension, incident hyperlipidemia, or both, increased the dementia risk in patients with and without DM. A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted. The study sample was obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database. We enrolled 10,316 patients with a new diagnosis of DM between 2000 and 2002 in the DM cohort. For the same period, we randomly selected 41,264 patients without DM in the non-DM cohort (matched by age and sex at a 1:4 ratio with the DM cohort). Both cohorts were then separately divided into four groups on the basis of incident hypertension or incident hyperlipidemia status. In total, 51,580 patients aged between 20 and 99 years were enrolled. The dementia risk was higher in the DM cohort than in the non-DM cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30-1.67, p hypertension and hyperlipidemia did not significantly increase compared with that in those without hypertension and hyperlipidemia (p = 0.529). Similar results were observed in those with either hypertension (p = 0.341) or hyperlipidemia (p = 0.189). In the non-DM cohort, patients with both hypertension and hyperlipidemia had a higher dementia risk (adjusted HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.09-1.63, p = 0.006). The results remained largely unchanged in patients with only hypertension (adjusted HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.05-1.40, p = 0.008). However, the dementia risk did not increase significantly in patients with only hyperlipidemia (p = 0.187). The development of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, or both, following a diagnosis of incident diabetes is secondary to diabetes onset and likely mediated through insulin resistance associated with diabetes, which

Early dementia diagnosis and the risk of suicide and euthanasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Draper, Brian; Peisah, Carmelle; Snowdon, John; Brodaty, Henry

2010-01-01

Diagnosis of dementia is occurring earlier, and much research concerns the identification of predementia states and the hunt for biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease. Reports of suicidal behavior and requests for euthanasia in persons with dementia may be increasing. We performed a selective literature review of suicide risk in persons with dementia and the ethical issues associated with euthanasia in this population. In the absence of any effective treatments for Alzheimer's disease or other types of dementia, there is already evidence that persons with mild cognitive change and early dementia are at risk of suicidal behavior, often in the context of comorbid depression. The ensuing clinical, ethical, and legal dilemmas associated with physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia in the context of dementia are a subject of intense debate. By analogy, the preclinical and early diagnoses of Huntington's disease are associated with an increased risk of suicidal behavior. Thus there is the potential for a preclinical and early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (through biomarkers, neuroimaging, and clinical assessment) to result in increased suicide risk and requests for physician-assisted suicide. Although dementia specialists have long recognized the importance of a sensitive approach to conveying bad news to patients and families and the possibility of depressive reactions, suicidal behavior has not been regarded as a likely outcome. Such preconceptions will need to change, and protocols to monitor and manage suicide risk will need to be developed for this population. 2010 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognosis and Risk Factors for Congenital Airway Anomalies in Children with Congenital Heart Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Study in Taiwan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Sheng Lee

Full Text Available The mortality risk associated with congenital airway anomalies (CAA in children with congenital heart disease (CHD is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with CAA, and the associated mortality risk, among children with CHD.This nationwide, population-based study evaluated 39,652 children with CHD aged 0-5 years between 2000 and 2011, using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD. We performed descriptive, logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression analyses of the data.Among the children with CHD, 1,591 (4.0% had concomitant CAA. Children with CHD had an increased likelihood of CAA if they were boys (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.64, infants (OR, 5.42; 95%CI, 4.06-7.24, or had a congenital musculoskeletal anomaly (OR, 3.19; 95%CI, 2.67-3.81, and were typically identified 0-3 years after CHD diagnosis (OR, 1.33; 95%CI 1.17-1.51. The mortality risk was increased in children with CHD and CAA (crude hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95%CI, 1.77-2.37, even after adjusting for confounders (adjusted HR, 1.76; 95%CI, 1.51-2.04. Mortality risk also changed by age and sex (adjusted HR and 95%CI are quoted: neonates, infants, and toddlers and preschool children, 1.67 (1.40-2.00, 1.93 (1.47-2.55, and 4.77 (1.39-16.44, respectively; and boys and girls, 1.62 (1.32-1.98 and 2.01 (1.61-2.50, respectively.The mortality risk is significantly increased among children with CHD and comorbid CAA. Clinicians should actively seek CAA during the follow-up of children with CHD.

Sleep apnea and the subsequent risk of Parkinson’s disease: a 3-year nationwide population-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chou PS

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Ping-Song Chou,1 Chiou-Lian Lai,1–3 Yii-Her Chou,4,5,* Wei-Pin Chang6,* 1Department of Neurology, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, 2Department of Neurology, Faculty of Medicine, College of Medicine, 3Department of Neurology, Kaohsiung Municipal Hsiao-Kang Hospital, 4Department of Urology, Faculty of Medicine, College of Medicine, 5Department of Urology, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, 6School of Health Care Administration, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: Sleep apnea (SA-induced chronic intermittent hypoxia increases oxidative stress and inflammation, which may contribute to the pathophysiology of Parkinson’s disease (PD. This study evaluated the risk of PD following SA diagnosis.Patients and methods: This was a 3-year nationwide population-based matched cohort study using claims data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD, Taiwan. We analyzed 1,944 patients diagnosed as having SA between 1997 and 2005 and a matched cohort of 9,720 non-SA patients from the NHIRD. Patients with a history of PD were excluded. Each patient was followed up for 3 years to evaluate subsequent PD development.Results: Of the 11,664 patients, 17 (0.9% and 38 (0.4% from the SA and matched non-SA cohorts, respectively, were subsequently diagnosed as having PD during follow-up. After adjustments for potential confounders, the SA cohort had a 1.85-fold higher risk of PD than the non-SA cohort (95% confidence interval [CI] =1.02–3.35; P=0.042. After age and sex stratification, PD development was independently associated with SA only in men (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.26; 95% CI =1.11–4.63; P<0.05 and in patients aged ≥60 years (adjusted HR, 1.93; 95% CI =1.01–3.71; P<0.05.Conclusion: Our study suggests that patients with SA are at an increased longitudinal risk of PD. Furthermore, age and male sex are independently

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-01-01

Abstract This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan. We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk. A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98–2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy. PMID:27015220

Relative Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction in People with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

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Shu-I Wu

Full Text Available Despite high mortality associated with serious mental illness, risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI remains unclear, especially for patients with bipolar disorder. The main objective was to investigate the relative risk of AMI associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorders in a national sample.Using nationwide administrative data, an 11-year historic cohort study was assembled, comprised of cases aged 18 and above who had received a diagnosis of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, compared to a random sample of all other adults excluding those with diagnoses of serious mental illness. Incident AMI as a primary diagnosis was ascertained. Hazard ratios stratified by age and gender were calculated and Cox regression models were used to adjust for other covariates.A total of 70,225 people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder and 207,592 people without serious mental illness were compared. Hazard ratios in men adjusted for age, income and urbanization were 1.15 (95% CI 1.01~1.32 for schizophrenia and 1.37 (1.08~1.73for bipolar disorder, and in women, 1.85 (1.58~2.18 and 1.88(1.47~2.41 respectively. Further adjustment for treated hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia attenuated the hazard ratio for men with schizophrenia but not the other comparison groups. Hazard ratios were significantly stronger in women than men and were stronger in younger compared to older age groups for both disorders; however, gender modification was only significant in people with schizophrenia, and age modification only significant in people with bipolar disorder.In this large national sample, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were associated with raised risk of AMI in women and in the younger age groups although showed differences in potential confounding and modifying factors.

Relative Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction in People with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shu-I; Chen, Su-Chiu; Liu, Shen-Ing; Sun, Fang-Ju; Juang, Jimmy J M; Lee, Hsin-Chien; Kao, Kai-Liang; Dewey, Michael E; Prince, Martin; Stewart, Robert

2015-01-01

Despite high mortality associated with serious mental illness, risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains unclear, especially for patients with bipolar disorder. The main objective was to investigate the relative risk of AMI associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorders in a national sample. Using nationwide administrative data, an 11-year historic cohort study was assembled, comprised of cases aged 18 and above who had received a diagnosis of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, compared to a random sample of all other adults excluding those with diagnoses of serious mental illness. Incident AMI as a primary diagnosis was ascertained. Hazard ratios stratified by age and gender were calculated and Cox regression models were used to adjust for other covariates. A total of 70,225 people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder and 207,592 people without serious mental illness were compared. Hazard ratios in men adjusted for age, income and urbanization were 1.15 (95% CI 1.01~1.32) for schizophrenia and 1.37 (1.08~1.73)for bipolar disorder, and in women, 1.85 (1.58~2.18) and 1.88(1.47~2.41) respectively. Further adjustment for treated hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia attenuated the hazard ratio for men with schizophrenia but not the other comparison groups. Hazard ratios were significantly stronger in women than men and were stronger in younger compared to older age groups for both disorders; however, gender modification was only significant in people with schizophrenia, and age modification only significant in people with bipolar disorder. In this large national sample, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were associated with raised risk of AMI in women and in the younger age groups although showed differences in potential confounding and modifying factors.

Internet-Based Self-Help Intervention for ICD-11 Adjustment Disorder: Preliminary Findings.

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Eimontas, Jonas; Rimsaite, Zivile; Gegieckaite, Goda; Zelviene, Paulina; Kazlauskas, Evaldas

2018-06-01

Adjustment disorder is one of the most diagnosed mental disorders. However, there is a lack of studies of specialized internet-based psychosocial interventions for adjustment disorder. We aimed to analyze the outcomes of an internet-based unguided self-help psychosocial intervention BADI for adjustment disorder in a two armed randomized controlled trial with a waiting list control group. In total 284 adult participants were randomized in this study. We measured adjustment disorder as a primary outcome, and psychological well-being as a secondary outcome at pre-intervention (T1) and one month after the intervention (T2). We found medium effect size of the intervention for the completer sample on adjustment disorder symptoms. Intervention was effective for those participants who used it at least one time in 30-day period. Our results revealed the potential of unguided internet-based self-help intervention for adjustment disorder. However, high dropout rates in the study limits the generalization of the outcomes of the intervention only to completers.

Performance based fault diagnosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niemann, Hans Henrik

2002-01-01

Different aspects of fault detection and fault isolation in closed-loop systems are considered. It is shown that using the standard setup known from feedback control, it is possible to formulate fault diagnosis problems based on a performance index in this general standard setup. It is also shown...

Hepatitis B vaccination of male neonates and autism diagnosis, NHIS 1997-2002.

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Gallagher, Carolyn M; Goodman, Melody S

2010-01-01

Universal hepatitis B vaccination was recommended for U.S. newborns in 1991; however, safety findings are mixed. The association between hepatitis B vaccination of male neonates and parental report of autism diagnosis was determined. This cross-sectional study used weighted probability samples obtained from National Health Interview Survey 1997-2002 data sets. Vaccination status was determined from the vaccination record. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds for autism diagnosis associated with neonatal hepatitis B vaccination among boys age 3-17 years, born before 1999, adjusted for race, maternal education, and two-parent household. Boys vaccinated as neonates had threefold greater odds for autism diagnosis compared to boys never vaccinated or vaccinated after the first month of life. Non-Hispanic white boys were 64% less likely to have autism diagnosis relative to nonwhite boys. Findings suggest that U.S. male neonates vaccinated with the hepatitis B vaccine prior to 1999 (from vaccination record) had a threefold higher risk for parental report of autism diagnosis compared to boys not vaccinated as neonates during that same time period. Nonwhite boys bore a greater risk.

Risk of ischemic stroke after atrial fibrillation diagnosis: A national sample cohort.

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Mi Kyoung Son

Full Text Available Atrial fibrillation (AF is a major risk factor for ischemic stroke and associated with a 5-fold higher risk of stroke. In this retrospective cohort study, the incidence of and risk factors for ischemic stroke in patients with AF were identified. All patients (≥30 years old without previous stroke who were diagnosed with AF in 2007-2013 were selected from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort. To identify factors that influenced ischemic stroke risk, Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted. During a mean follow-up duration of 3.2 years, 1022 (9.6% patients were diagnosed with ischemic stroke. The overall incidence rate of ischemic stroke was 30.8/1000 person-years. Of all the ischemic stroke that occurred during the follow-up period, 61.0% occurred within 1-year after AF diagnosis. Of the patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥2, only 13.6% were receiving warfarin therapy within 30 days after AF diagnosis. Relative to no antithrombotic therapy, warfarin treatment for >90 days before the index event (ischemic stroke in stroke patients and death/study end in non-stroke patients associated with decreased ischemic stroke risk (Hazard Ratio = 0.41, 95%confidence intervals = 0.32-0.53. Heart failure, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus associated with greater ischemic stroke risk. AF patients in Korea had a higher ischemic stroke incidence rate than patients in other countries and ischemic stroke commonly occurred at early phase after AF diagnosis. Long-term (>90 days continuous warfarin treatment may be beneficial for AF patients. However, warfarin treatment rates were very low. To prevent stroke, programs that actively detect AF and provide anticoagulation therapy are needed.

Price adjustment for traditional Chinese medicine procedures: Based on a standardized value parity model.

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Wang, Haiyin; Jin, Chunlin; Jiang, Qingwu

2017-11-20

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is an important part of China's medical system. Due to the prolonged low price of TCM procedures and the lack of an effective mechanism for dynamic price adjustment, the development of TCM has markedly lagged behind Western medicine. The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized the need to enhance the development of alternative and traditional medicine when creating national health care systems. The establishment of scientific and appropriate mechanisms to adjust the price of medical procedures in TCM is crucial to promoting the development of TCM. This study has examined incorporating value indicators and data on basic manpower expended, time spent, technical difficulty, and the degree of risk in the latest standards for the price of medical procedures in China, and this study also offers a price adjustment model with the relative price ratio as a key index. This study examined 144 TCM procedures and found that prices of TCM procedures were mainly based on the value of medical care provided; on average, medical care provided accounted for 89% of the price. Current price levels were generally low and the current price accounted for 56% of the standardized value of a procedure, on average. Current price levels accounted for a markedly lower standardized value of acupuncture, moxibustion, special treatment with TCM, and comprehensive TCM procedures. This study selected a total of 79 procedures and adjusted them by priority. The relationship between the price of TCM procedures and the suggested price was significantly optimized (p based on a standardized value parity model is a scientific and suitable method of price adjustment that can serve as a reference for other provinces and municipalities in China and other countries and regions that mainly have fee-for-service (FFS) medical care.

Weight-based nutritional diagnosis of Mexican children and adolescents with neuromotor disabilities.

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Vega-Sanchez, Rodrigo; de la Luz Gomez-Aguilar, Maria; Haua, Karime; Rozada, Guadalupe

2012-07-04

Nutrition related problems are increasing worldwide but they have scarcely been evaluated in people with neuromotor disabilities, particularly in developing countries. In this study our aim was to describe the weight-based nutritional diagnoses of children and adolescents with neuromotor disabilities who attended a private rehabilitation center in Mexico City. Data from the first visit's clinical records of 410 patients who attended the Nutrition department at the Teleton Center for Children Rehabilitation, between 1999 and 2008, were analyzed. Sex, age, weight and height, length or segmental length data were collected and used to obtain the nutritional diagnosis based on international growth charts, as well as disability-specific charts. Weight for height was considered the main indicator. Cerebral palsy was the most frequent diagnosis, followed by spina bifida, muscular dystrophy, and Down's syndrome. Children with cerebral palsy showed a higher risk of presenting low weight/undernutrition (LW/UN) than children with other disabilities, which was three times higher in females. In contrast, children with spina bifida, particularly males, were more likely to be overweight/obese (OW/OB), especially after the age of 6 and even more after 11. Patients with muscular dystrophy showed a significantly lower risk of LW/UN than patients with other disabilities. In patients with Down's syndrome neither LW/UN nor OW/OB were different between age and sex. This is the first study that provides evidence of the nutritional situation of children and adolescents with neuromotor disabilities in Mexico, based on their weight status. Low weight and obesity affect a large number of these patients due to their disability, age and sex. Early nutritional diagnosis must be considered an essential component in the treatment of these patients to prevent obesity and malnutrition, and improve their quality of life.

Geographic Variations of Colorectal and Breast Cancer Late-Stage Diagnosis and the Effects of Neighborhood-Level Factors.

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Lin, Yan; Wimberly, Michael C

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the geographic variations of late-stage diagnosis in colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer as well as to investigate the effects of 3 neighborhood-level factors-socioeconomic deprivation, urban/rural residence, and spatial accessibility to health care-on the late-stage risks. This study used population-based South Dakota cancer registry data from 2001 to 2012. A total of 4,878 CRC cases and 6,418 breast cancer cases were included in the analyses. Two-level logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk of late-stage CRC and breast cancer. For CRC, there was a small geographic variation across census tracts in late-stage diagnosis, and residing in isolated small rural areas was significantly associated with late-stage risk. However, this association became nonsignificant after adjusting for census-tract level socioeconomic deprivation. Socioeconomic deprivation was an independent predictor of CRC late-stage risk, and it explained the elevated risk among American Indians. No relationship was found between spatial accessibility and CRC late-stage risk. For breast cancer, no geographic variation in the late-stage diagnosis was observed across census tracts, and none of the 3 neighborhood-level factors was significantly associated with late-stage risk. Results suggested that socioeconomic deprivation, rather than spatial accessibility, contributed to CRC late-stage risks in South Dakota as a rural state. CRC intervention programs could be developed to target isolated small rural areas, socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, as well as American Indians residing in these areas. © 2016 National Rural Health Association.

Psychosocial risks in university education teachers: Diagnosis and prevention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Matilde García

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the psychosocial risks of university teachers and identify enhancement areas for a healthy organization in a sample of 621 teachers from the University of A Coruña, Spain. To achieve this aim, the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (CoPsoQ adapted to the Spanish population (ISTAS21 Method was applied. The results showed an unfavorable situation for psychosocial health in five dimensions: high psychological demands, low esteem, high double presence, low social support, and high job insecurity. In contrast, a favorable situation for health is the dimension active work and development opportunities. It was also found that there is not a single profile of university teacher in psychosocial risk. To conclude, a diagnosis of psychosocial risks of university teachers is made and, in that scenario, some risk prevention strategies at university level are proposed.

Risk of Peripheral Artery Occlusive Disease in Patients with Vertigo, Tinnitus, or Sudden Deafness: A Secondary Case-Control Analysis of a Nationwide, Population-Based Health Claims Database.

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Koo, Malcolm; Chen, Jin-Cherng; Hwang, Juen-Haur

2016-01-01

Cochleovestibular symptoms, such as vertigo, tinnitus, and sudden deafness, are common manifestations of microvascular diseases. However, it is unclear whether these symptoms occurred preceding the diagnosis of peripheral artery occlusive disease (PAOD). Therefore, the aim of this case-control study was to investigate the risk of PAOD among patients with vertigo, tinnitus, and sudden deafness using a nationwide, population-based health claim database in Taiwan. We identified 5,340 adult patients with PAOD diagnosed between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2010 and 16,020 controls, frequency matched on age interval, sex, and year of index date, from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Risks of PAOD in patients with vertigo, tinnitus, or sudden deafness were separately evaluated with multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of the 5,340 patients with PAOD, 12.7%, 6.7%, and 0.3% were diagnosed with vertigo, tinnitus, and sudden deafness, respectively. In the controls, 10.6%, 6.1%, and 0.3% were diagnosed with vertigo (P vertigo (adjusted odds ratio = 1.12, P = 0.027) but not in those with tinnitus or sudden deafness. A modest increase in the risk of PAOD was observed among Taiwanese patients with vertigo, after adjustment for comorbidities.

Risk of leukaemia in children infected with enterovirus: a nationwide, retrospective, population-based, Taiwanese-registry, cohort study.

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Lin, Jiun-Nong; Lin, Cheng-Li; Lin, Ming-Chia; Lai, Chung-Hsu; Lin, Hsi-Hsun; Yang, Chih-Hui; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-10-01

The association between enterovirus infections in children and risk of leukaemia is unclear. We aimed to assess the risk of leukaemia after enterovirus infection in children. We did a nationwide retrospective cohort study by analysing data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan. Children with enterovirus infections aged younger than 18 years were identified. With use of computer-generated random numbers, children not infected with enterovirus were randomly selected and frequency matched (1:1) with children infected with enterovirus by sex, age, urbanisation level, parental occupation, and index year of enterovirus infection. We only included children with complete baseline data for age and sex and who had at least three clinic visits with the diagnosis of enterovirus infection. The diagnosis date of the first clinic visit for the enterovirus infection was defined as the index date for initiation of follow-up person-year measurement and participants. All study patients were followed up until they developed leukaemia, were lost to follow-up, withdrew from the NHI programme, or until the end of the study without leukaemia (censored). Our primary endpoint was a diagnosis of leukaemia during follow-up. Insurance claims data for 3 054 336 children younger than 18 years were randomly selected from all insured children in the NHIRD. We identified 282 360 children infected with enterovirus and 282 355 children not infected with enterovirus between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2007. The incidence density rates of leukaemia were 3·26 per 100 000 person-years for the enterovirus-infected and 5·84 per 100 000 person-years for the non-enterovirus-infected cohorts. The risk of leukaemia was significantly lower in the enterovirus-infected cohort than in the non-enterovirus-infected cohort (adjusted subhazard ratio [SHR] 0·44, 95% CI 0·31-0·60; penterovirus have a reduced risk of both lymphocytic leukaemia (adjusted SHR 0·44, 0·30-0�

The Effect of Family Communication Patterns on Adopted Adolescent Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

Rueter, Martha A.; Koerner, Ascan F.

2008-01-01

Adoption and family communication both affect adolescent adjustment. We proposed that adoption status and family communication interact such that adopted adolescents in families with certain communication patterns are at greater risk for adjustment problems. We tested this hypothesis using a community-based sample of 384 adoptive and 208…

Infrared thermography based on artificial intelligence as a screening method for carpal tunnel syndrome diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jesensek Papez, B; Palfy, M; Mertik, M; Turk, Z

2009-01-01

This study further evaluated a computer-based infrared thermography (IRT) system, which employs artificial neural networks for the diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) using a large database of 502 thermal images of the dorsal and palmar side of 132 healthy and 119 pathological hands. It confirmed the hypothesis that the dorsal side of the hand is of greater importance than the palmar side when diagnosing CTS thermographically. Using this method it was possible correctly to classify 72.2% of all hands (healthy and pathological) based on dorsal images and > 80% of hands when only severely affected and healthy hands were considered. Compared with the gold standard electromyographic diagnosis of CTS, IRT cannot be recommended as an adequate diagnostic tool when exact severity level diagnosis is required, however we conclude that IRT could be used as a screening tool for severe cases in populations with high ergonomic risk factors of CTS.

Psychosocial Adjustment and Sibling Relationships in Siblings of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: Risk and Protective Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

2015-01-01

This study compared sibling adjustment and relationships in siblings of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD-Sibs; n = 69) and siblings of children with typical development (TD-Sibs; n = 93). ASD-Sibs and TD-Sibs demonstrated similar emotional/behavioral adjustment. Older male ASD-Sibs were at increased risk for difficulties. Sibling…

Odds per adjusted standard deviation: comparing strengths of associations for risk factors measured on different scales and across diseases and populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopper, John L

2015-11-15

How can the "strengths" of risk factors, in the sense of how well they discriminate cases from controls, be compared when they are measured on different scales such as continuous, binary, and integer? Given that risk estimates take into account other fitted and design-related factors-and that is how risk gradients are interpreted-so should the presentation of risk gradients. Therefore, for each risk factor X0, I propose using appropriate regression techniques to derive from appropriate population data the best fitting relationship between the mean of X0 and all the other covariates fitted in the model or adjusted for by design (X1, X2, … , Xn). The odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) presents the risk association for X0 in terms of the change in risk per s = standard deviation of X0 adjusted for X1, X2, … , Xn, rather than the unadjusted standard deviation of X0 itself. If the increased risk is relative risk (RR)-fold over A adjusted standard deviations, then OPERA = exp[ln(RR)/A] = RR(s). This unifying approach is illustrated by considering breast cancer and published risk estimates. OPERA estimates are by definition independent and can be used to compare the predictive strengths of risk factors across diseases and populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risks of neurological and immune-related diseases, including narcolepsy, after vaccination with Pandemrix: a population- and registry-based cohort study with over 2 years of follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Persson, I; Granath, F; Askling, J; Ludvigsson, J F; Olsson, T; Feltelius, N

2014-02-01

To investigate the association between vaccination with Pandemrix and risk of selected neurological and immune-related diseases including narcolepsy. Population-based prospective cohort study using data from regional vaccination registries and national health registries. Seven healthcare regions in Sweden comprising 61% of the Swedish population. Study population of 3,347,467 vaccinated and 2,497,572 nonvaccinated individuals (vaccination coverage ≈ 60%) followed between 2009 and 2011 for 6.9 million person-years after exposure and 6.0 million person-years without exposure. First recorded diagnosis of neurological and immune-related diseases. Relative risks [hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] assessed using Cox regression, adjusted for covariates. For all selected neurological and immune-related outcomes under study, other than allergic vaccine reactions (for which we verified an expected increase in risk) and narcolepsy, HRs were close to 1.0 and always below 1.3. We observed a three-fold increased risk of a diagnosis of narcolepsy (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.78-4.79; that is, four additional cases per 100,000 person-years) in individuals ≤ 20 years of age at vaccination and a two-fold increase (HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.00-4.75) amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years of age. The excess risk declined successively with increasing age at vaccination; no increase in risk was seen after 40 years of age. For a large number of selected neurological and immune-related diseases, we could neither confirm any causal association with Pandemrix nor refute entirely a small excess risk. We confirmed an increased risk for a diagnosis of narcolepsy in individuals ≤ 20 years of age and observed a trend towards an increased risk also amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Sherri; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McWilliams, J Michael

2016-03-01

Spending targets (or benchmarks) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program must be set carefully to encourage program participation while achieving fiscal goals and minimizing unintended consequences, such as penalizing ACOs for serving sicker patients. Recently proposed regulatory changes include measures to make benchmarks more similar for ACOs in the same area with different historical spending levels. We found that ACOs vary widely in how their spending levels compare with those of other local providers after standard case-mix adjustments. Additionally adjusting for survey measures of patient health meaningfully reduced the variation in differences between ACO spending and local average fee-for-service spending, but substantial variation remained, which suggests that differences in care efficiency between ACOs and local non-ACO providers vary widely. Accordingly, measures to equilibrate benchmarks between high- and low-spending ACOs--such as setting benchmarks to risk-adjusted average fee-for-service spending in an area--should be implemented gradually to maintain participation by ACOs with high spending. Use of survey information also could help mitigate perverse incentives for risk selection and upcoding and limit unintended consequences of new benchmarking methodologies for ACOs serving sicker patients. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Dementia and Risk of 30-Day Readmission in Older Adults After Discharge from Acute Care Hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakata, Nobuo; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Nakanishi, Miharu; Ogawa, Asao

2018-02-20

To assess the association between dementia and risk of hospital readmission and to evaluate whether the effect of dementia on hospital readmission varies according to primary diagnosis. Retrospective cohort study. Nationwide discharge database of acute care hospitals in Japan. Individuals aged 65 and older diagnosed with one of the 30 most common diagnoses and discharged from 987 hospitals between April 2014 and September 2015 (N = 1,834,378). The primary outcome was unplanned hospital readmission within 30 days. Poisson generalized estimating equation models were fitted to assess the risks of readmission for individuals with and without dementia, using primary diagnosis as a possible effect modifier and clinical factors as potential confounders. The overall prevalence of dementia was 14.7% and varied according to primary diagnosis, ranging from 3.0% in individuals with prostate cancer to 69.4% in those with aspiration pneumonia. Overall, individuals with dementia had a higher risk of hospital readmission (8.3%) than those without (4.1%) (adjusted risk ratio (aRR])=1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.44-1.49), although diagnostic category substantially modified the relationship between dementia and hospital readmission. For hip fracture, dementia was associated with greater risk of hospital readmission (adjusted risk 11.5% vs 7.9%; aRR=1.46; 95% CI=1.28-1.68); this risk was attenuated for cholecystitis (adjusted risk 12.8% vs 12.4%; aRR=1.03; 95% CI=0.90-1.18). Risk of hospital readmission associated with dementia varied according to primary diagnosis. Healthcare providers could enforce interventions to minimize readmission by focusing on comorbid conditions in individuals with dementia and specific primary diagnoses that increase their risk of readmission. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Gout and the Risk of Non-vertebral Fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seoyoung C; Paik, Julie M; Liu, Jun; Curhan, Gary C; Solomon, Daniel H

2017-02-01

Prior studies suggest an association between osteoporosis, systemic inflammation, and pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin (IL)-1 and IL-6. Conflicting findings exist on the association between hyperuricemia and osteoporosis. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether gout, a common inflammatory arthritis, affects fracture risk. Using data from a US commercial health plan (2004-2013), we evaluated the risk of non-vertebral fracture (ie, forearm, wrist, hip, and pelvis) in patients with gout versus those without. Gout patients were identified with ≥2 diagnosis codes and ≥1 dispensing for a gout-related drug. Non-gout patients, identified with ≥2 visits coded for any diagnosis and ≥1 dispensing for any prescription drugs, were free of gout diagnosis and received no gout-related drugs. Hip fracture was the secondary outcome. Fractures were identified with a combination of diagnosis and procedure codes. Cox proportional hazards models compared the risk of non-vertebral fracture in gout patients versus non-gout, adjusting for more than 40 risk factors for osteoporotic fracture. Among gout patients with baseline serum uric acid (sUA) measurements available, we assessed the risk of non-vertebral fracture associated with sUA. We identified 73,202 gout and 219,606 non-gout patients, matched on age, sex, and the date of study entry. The mean age was 60 years and 82% were men. Over the mean 2-year follow-up, the incidence rate of non-vertebral fracture per 1,000 person-years was 2.92 in gout and 2.66 in non-gout. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-1.12) for non-vertebral fracture and 0.83 (95% CI 0.65-1.07) for hip fracture in gout versus non-gout. Subgroup analysis (n = 15,079) showed no association between baseline sUA and non-vertebral fracture (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.93-1.15), adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity score, and number of any prescription drugs. Gout was not associated with a risk of non

What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed Mohammed A

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

Use of surveillance data for prevention of healthcare-associated infection: risk adjustment and reporting dilemmas.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Neill, Eoghan

2009-08-01

Healthcare-associated or nosocomial infection (HCAI) is of increasing importance to healthcare providers and the public. Surveillance is crucial but must be adjusted for risk, especially when used for interhospital comparisons or for public reporting.

Association of atrial fibrillation and cancer: Analysis from two large population-based case-control studies.

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Saliba, Walid; Rennert, Hedy S; Gronich, Naomi; Gruber, Stephen B; Rennert, Gad

2018-01-01

An association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk of cancer has been suggested in several studies, including prospective cohort studies. However, the magnitude and the temporal nature of this association remain unclear. Data from two large prospective population-based case-control studies, the Molecular Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer (MECC, n = 8,383) and the Breast Cancer in Northern Israel Study (BCINIS, n = 11,608), were used to better understand the nature and temporality of a possible association between cancer diagnosis and AF events before and after cancer diagnosis. A case-control study approach was employed to study prior AF as a risk factor for cancer, and a cohort study approach was employed to study incident cancer as a risk factor for AF. AF was associated with a significant reduced odds of cancer as reflected in the case-control approach, with an adjusted OR = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.65-0.91), while cancer was not found to be significantly associated with elevated risk of AF in the cohort approach, with an adjusted HR = 1.10 (0.98-1.23). The immediate period (90 days) after an AF event was associated with a 1.85 times increased risk of cancer, and the immediate period after the diagnosis of cancer was associated with a 3.4 fold increased risk of AF. These findings probably reflect both the effect of acute transient conditions associated with new cancer diagnosis and detection bias. Similar results were identified with colorectal and breast cancer cases. Atrial fibrillation of longer than 90 days duration is associated with reduced odds of new cancer diagnosis. The results of this study suggest that an association observed in prior research may be due to instances related to cancer diagnosis and detection bias rather than a causal relationship. However, there may be bias in the sampling and residual confounding that distort the associations.

Case mix adjustment of health outcomes, resource use and process indicators in childbirth care: a register-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mesterton, Johan; Lindgren, Peter; Ekenberg Abreu, Anna; Ladfors, Lars; Lilja, Monica; Saltvedt, Sissel; Amer-Wåhlin, Isis

2016-05-31

Unwarranted variation in care practice and outcomes has gained attention and inter-hospital comparisons are increasingly being used to highlight and understand differences between hospitals. Adjustment for case mix is a prerequisite for meaningful comparisons between hospitals with different patient populations. The objective of this study was to identify and quantify maternal characteristics that impact a set of important indicators of health outcomes, resource use and care process and which could be used for case mix adjustment of comparisons between hospitals. In this register-based study, 139 756 deliveries in 2011 and 2012 were identified in regional administrative systems from seven Swedish regions, which together cover 67 % of all deliveries in Sweden. Data were linked to the Medical birth register and Statistics Sweden's population data. A number of important indicators in childbirth care were studied: Caesarean section (CS), induction of labour, length of stay, perineal tears, haemorrhage > 1000 ml and post-partum infections. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics deemed relevant for case mix adjustment of outcomes and resource use were identified based on previous literature and based on clinical expertise. Adjustment using logistic and ordinary least squares regression analysis was performed to quantify the impact of these characteristics on the studied indicators. Almost all case mix factors analysed had an impact on CS rate, induction rate and length of stay and the effect was highly statistically significant for most factors. Maternal age, parity, fetal presentation and multiple birth were strong predictors of all these indicators but a number of additional factors such as born outside the EU, body mass index (BMI) and several complications during pregnancy were also important risk factors. A number of maternal characteristics had a noticeable impact on risk of perineal tears, while the impact of case mix factors was less pronounced for

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

.... Cost-plus-incentive-free (4) 1.0 0 to 2. Cost-plus-fixed-fee (4) 0.5 0 to 1. Time-and-materials... considered cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts for the purposes of assigning profit values. They shall not receive... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) and Response Adjusted for Duration of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR).

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Scott R; Rubin, Daniel; Follmann, Dean; Pennello, Gene; Huskins, W Charles; Powers, John H; Schoenfeld, David; Chuang-Stein, Christy; Cosgrove, Sara E; Fowler, Vance G; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Chambers, Henry F

2015-09-01

Clinical trials that compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use are of critical importance but are limited by competing risks that distort outcome interpretation, complexities of noninferiority trials, large sample sizes, and inadequate evaluation of benefits and harms at the patient level. The Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group strives to overcome these challenges through innovative trial design. Response adjusted for duration of antibiotic risk (RADAR) is a novel methodology utilizing a superiority design and a 2-step process: (1) categorizing patients into an overall clinical outcome (based on benefits and harms), and (2) ranking patients with respect to a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR). DOORs are constructed by assigning higher ranks to patients with (1) better overall clinical outcomes and (2) shorter durations of antibiotic use for similar overall clinical outcomes. DOOR distributions are compared between antibiotic use strategies. The probability that a randomly selected patient will have a better DOOR if assigned to the new strategy is estimated. DOOR/RADAR represents a new paradigm in assessing the risks and benefits of new strategies to optimize antibiotic use. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk of incident clinical diagnosis of AD-type dementia attributable to pathology-confirmed vascular disease

Science.gov (United States)

Dodge, Hiroko H.; Zhu, Jian; Woltjer, Randy; Nelson, Peter T.; Bennett, David A.; Cairns, Nigel J.; Fardo, David W.; Kaye, Jeffrey A.; Lyons, Deniz-Erten; Mattek, Nora; Schneider, Julie A; Silbert, Lisa C.; Xiong, Chengjie; Yu, Lei; Schmitt, Frederick A.; Kryscio, Richard J.; Abner, Erin L.

2016-01-01

Introduction Presence of cerebrovascular pathology may increase the risk of clinical diagnosis of AD. Methods We examined excess risk of incident clinical diagnosis of AD (probable and possible AD) posed by the presence of lacunes and large infarcts beyond AD pathology using data from the Statistical Modelling of Aging and Risk of Transition (SMART) study, a consortium of longitudinal cohort studies with over 2000 autopsies. We created six mutually exclusive pathology patterns combining three levels of AD pathology (low, moderate or high AD pathology) and two levels of vascular pathology (without lacunes and large infarcts or with lacunes and/or large infarcts). Results The coexistence of lacunes and large infarcts results in higher likelihood of clinical diagnosis of AD only when AD pathology burden is low. Discussion Our results reinforce the diagnostic importance of AD pathology in clinical AD. Further harmonization of assessment approaches for vascular pathologies is required. PMID:28017827

Adiposity, post-diagnosis weight change, and risk of cardiovascular events among early-stage breast cancer survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Cespedes Feliciano, Elizabeth M; Kwan, Marilyn L; Kushi, Lawrence H; Weltzien, Erin K; Castillo, Adrienne L; Caan, Bette J

2017-04-01

Little research examines whether adiposity or post-diagnosis weight changes influence Cardiovascular disease (CVD) among breast cancer patients for whom effects may differ due to treatment and recovery. We studied Stage I-III breast cancer survivors 18 to  diagnosis and weight and waist circumference (WC) around 24 months post diagnosis. Using Cox models for time to incident coronary artery disease, heart failure, valve abnormality, arrhythmia, stroke, or CVD death, we examined at-diagnosis body mass index (BMI, n = 3109) and post-diagnosis WC (n = 1898) and weight change (n = 1903, stable, ±5 to  diagnosis, 25% of women gained and 14% lost ≥10-lbs; mean (SD) WC was 90 (15) cm. Over a median of 8.28 years, 915 women developed CVD. BMI 25-30-kg/m 2 (vs. BMI diagnosis weight change had no association with CVD. Extreme adiposity and any elevation in WC increased risk of CVD among breast cancer survivors; however, changes in weight in the early post-diagnosis period were not associated with CVD. Survivors with high WC and existing CVD risk factors should be monitored.

Model-Based Methods for Fault Diagnosis: Some Guide-Lines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patton, R.J.; Chen, J.; Nielsen, S.B.

1995-01-01

This paper provides a review of model-based fault diagnosis techniques. Starting from basic principles, the properties.......This paper provides a review of model-based fault diagnosis techniques. Starting from basic principles, the properties....

Mate guarding in the Seychelles warbler is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Komdeur, J

2001-10-22

Males may increase their fitness through extra-pair copulations (copulations outside the pair bond) that result in extra-pair fertilizations, but also risk lost paternity when they leave their own mate unguarded. The fitness costs of cuckoldry for Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) are considerable because warblers have a single-egg clutch and, given the short breeding season, no time for a successful replacement clutch. Neighbouring males are the primary threat to a male's genetic paternity. Males minimize their loss of paternity by guarding their mates to prevent them from having extra-pair copulations during their fertile period. Here, I provide experimental evidence that mate-guarding behaviour is energetically costly and that the expression of this trade-off is adjusted to paternity risk (local male density). Free-living males that were induced to reduce mate guarding spent significantly more time foraging and gained significantly better body condition than control males. The larger the reduction in mate guarding, the more pronounced was the increase in foraging and body condition (accounting for food availability). An experimental increase in paternity risk resulted in an increase in mate-guarding intensity and a decrease in foraging and body condition, and vice versa. This is examined using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. This study on the Seychelles warbler offers experimental evidence that mate guarding is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

Relapse insomnia increases greater risk of anxiety and depression: evidence from a population-based 4-year cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ping-Jen; Huang, Charles Lung-Cheng; Weng, Shih-Feng; Wu, Ming-Ping; Ho, Chung-Han; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Tsai, Wan-Chi; Hsu, Ya-Wen

2017-10-01

We investigated the longitudinal impacts of insomnia on the subsequent developments of anxiety and depression during a four-year follow-up. We further categorized individuals with insomnia into different insomnia subgroups to examine whether the risk of anxiety and depression varies by subtype. Participants were identified from National Health Insurance enrollees in Taiwan during 2002-2009. The study included 19,273 subjects with insomnia and 38,546 matched subjects without insomnia. All subjects did not have previous diagnosis of insomnia, sleep apnea, anxiety, or depression. Compared with non-insomniacs, insomniacs had a higher risk of developing anxiety only [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 8.83, 95% CI = 7.59-10.27], depression only (adjusted HR = 8.48, 95% CI = 6.92-10.39), and both anxiety and depression (adjusted HR = 17.98, 95% CI = 12.65-25.56). When breaking down the insomnia subgroups, individuals with a relapse of insomnia (adjusted HR = 10.42-26.80) had the highest risk of anxiety only, depression only, and both anxiety and depression, followed by persistent insomnia (adjusted HR = 9.82-18.98), then remitted insomnia (adjusted HR = 4.50-8.27). All three insomnia subgroups had a greater four-year cumulative incidence rate than the non-insomnia group for anxiety only, depression only, and both anxiety and depression (p anxiety or/and depression. Awareness of insomnia and treatment of insomnia should be recommended at clinics, and patterns of insomnia should be monitored to help treatment and control of subsequent psychiatric disorders. Future research with comprehensive data collection is needed to identify factors that contribute to different insomnia subtypes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dietary inflammation potential and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in a German case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Isabell; Rudolph, Anja; Shivappa, Nitin; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Hébert, James R; Chang-Claude, Jenny

2015-08-01

Unhealthy dietary habits can increase the risk for serious medical conditions, such as cancer, yet the association between diet and breast cancer remains unclear. We investigated whether individual diets based on their inflammatory potential are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk by employing an energy-adjusted dietary inflammation index. In a German population-based case-control study, 2887 postmenopausal breast cancer patients (aged 50-74 years, first diagnosed between 2002 and 2005) and 5512 healthy age-matched controls provided information on dietary habits for the year prior to diagnosis (cases) or recruitment (controls) using a 176-items food frequency questionnaire. Associations between the energy-adjusted dietary inflammation index (E-DII) score (both as continuous variable and in quintiles) and risk for breast cancer were assessed using conditional logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders. No significant associations between the E-DII score and postmenopausal breast cancer risk were observed (adjusted OR Q5 vs Q1: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86-1.17). Associations did not differ by estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor status (ER + PR+: adjusted OR Q5 vs Q1: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.88-1.27; ER + or PR+: OR Q5 vs Q1: 1,07, 95% CI: 0.79-1.45; ER-PR-: OR Q5 vs Q1: 0.87 95% CI: 0.63-1.20). Our results regarding E-DII are consistent with previous studies reporting a lack of association between C-reactive protein, a marker of systemic inflammation, and postmenopausal breast cancer risk. The findings may reflect a real absence of association between dietary inflammatory potential and postmenopausal cancer risk or an underestimation of association due to recall bias. Further investigation is warranted in cohort studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Obesity, weight gain, and ovarian cancer risk in African American women.

Science.gov (United States)

Bandera, Elisa V; Qin, Bo; Moorman, Patricia G; Alberg, Anthony J; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Bondy, Melissa; Cote, Michele L; Funkhouser, Ellen; Peters, Edward S; Schwartz, Ann G; Terry, Paul; Schildkraut, Joellen M

2016-08-01

Although there is growing evidence that higher adiposity increases ovarian cancer risk, little is known about its impact in African American (AA) women, the racial/ethnic group with the highest prevalence of obesity. We evaluated the impact of body mass index (BMI) 1 year before diagnosis and weight gain since age 18 years on ovarian cancer risk in a population-based case-control study in AA women in 11 geographical areas in the US. Cases (n = 492) and age and site matched controls (n = 696) were identified through rapid case ascertainment and random-digit-dialing, respectively. Information was collected on demographic and lifestyle factors, including self-reported height, weight at age 18 and weight 1 year before diagnosis/interview. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for potential covariates. Obese women had elevated ovarian cancer risk, particularly for BMI ≥ 40 kg/m(2) compared to BMI Obesity and excessive adult weight gain may increase ovarian cancer risk in post-menopausal AA women. © 2016 UICC.

Fault tolerant control based on active fault diagnosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niemann, Hans Henrik

2005-01-01

An active fault diagnosis (AFD) method will be considered in this paper in connection with a Fault Tolerant Control (FTC) architecture based on the YJBK parameterization of all stabilizing controllers. The architecture consists of a fault diagnosis (FD) part and a controller reconfiguration (CR......) part. The FTC architecture can be applied for additive faults, parametric faults, and for system structural changes. Only parametric faults will be considered in this paper. The main focus in this paper is on the use of the new approach of active fault diagnosis in connection with FTC. The active fault...... diagnosis approach is based on including an auxiliary input in the system. A fault signature matrix is introduced in connection with AFD, given as the transfer function from the auxiliary input to the residual output. This can be considered as a generalization of the passive fault diagnosis case, where...

A population-based case-cohort study of the risk of myocardial infarction following radiation therapy for breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paszat, Lawrence F.; Vallis, Katherine A.; Benk, Veronique M.A.; Groome, Patti A.; Mackillop, William J.; Wielgosz, Andreas

2007-01-01

Objective: To describe the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer (BrCa) in an exposed population. Methods: We identified and validated cases of AMI (vAMI), by electrocardiographic or enzyme criteria, among all 6680 women who received post-operative RT following lumpectomy or mastectomy, within 12 months following diagnosis of BrCa between 1982 and 1988 in Ontario, Canada. We identified women without vAMI whose death certification was ascribed to AMI (dAMI). We abstracted risk factors and treatment exposures for a random sample of women from the 6680, and for all with vAMI or dAMI. The hazards of vAMI and of dAMI were estimated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, corrected for study design. Results: We validated 121 cases of vAMI and identified 92 cases of dAMI. The risk of vAMI associated with RT to the left breast HR = 1.96 (1.09, 3.54) among women at age ≥ 60 at time of RT, adjusted for history of smoking and prior MI. The adjusted HR dAMI = 1.90 (1.08, 3.35) for exposure to anterior internal mammary node (IMC) RT. Among women who received anterior left breast boost RT, increasing area of the boost is associated with adjusted HR vAMI = 1.02 (1.00, 1.03)/cm 2 , and adjusted HR dAMI = 1.02 (1.01, 1.03)/cm 2 . Conclusion: The risks of vAMI and dAMI following RT for BrCa are related to anatomic sites of RT (left breast, area of anterior left breast boost field, and anterior IMC field)

Energy-Saving Performance of Flap-Adjustment-Based Centrifugal Fan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Genglin Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The current paper mainly focuses on finding a more appropriate way to enhance the fan performance at off-design conditions. The centrifugal fan (CF based on flap-adjustment (FA has been investigated through theoretical, experimental, and finite element methods. To obtain a more predominant performance of CF from the different adjustments, we carried out a comparative analysis on FA and leading-adjustment (LA in aerodynamic performances, which included the adjusted angle of blades, total pressure, efficiency, system-efficiency, adjustment-efficiency, and energy-saving rate. The contribution of this paper is the integrated performance curve of the CF. Finally, the results showed that the effects of FA and LA on economic performance and energy savings of the fan varied with the blade angles. Furthermore, FA was feasible, which is more sensitive than LA. Moreover, the CF with FA offered a more extended flow-range of high economic characteristic in comparison with LA. Finally, when the operation flow-range extends, energy-saving rate of the fan with FA would have improvement.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

2018-01-01

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

The Association between Statin Use and the Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer in a Population-Based Cohort

Science.gov (United States)

Breau, Rodney H.; Karnes, R. Jeffrey; Jacobson, Debra J.; McGree, Michaela E.; Jacobsen, Steven J.; Nehra, Ajay; Lieber, Michael M.; St. Sauver, Jennifer L.

2011-01-01

Purpose The effect of statin medication use on risk of prostate cancer is unknown. Materials and Methods We examined data from a longitudinal, population-based cohort of 2447 men between the ages of 40 and 79 that were followed from 1990 to 2007. Information on statin use was self-reported and obtained by biennial questionnaires. A randomly selected subset of men (634; 26%) completed biennial urologic examinations that included serum PSA measurements. Information on prostate biopsy and prostate cancer was obtained through review of community medical records. Results Of 634 statin users, 38 (6%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer compared to 186 (10%) of 1813 non-statin users. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of receiving a prostate biopsy (HR: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.24, 0.40), prostate cancer diagnosis (HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.25, 0.53) and high-grade (Gleason ≥7) prostate cancer diagnosis (HR: 0.25; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.58). Statin use was also associated with a non-significant decreased risk of exceeding a PSA threshold of 4.0 ng/mL (HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.35, 1.13). In addition, longer duration of statin use was associated with lower risk of these outcomes (all tests for trend pStatin use is associated with a decreased risk of prostate cancer diagnosis. This association may be explained by decreased detection or cancer prevention. PMID:20620405

A Novel Evidence Theory and Fuzzy Preference Approach-Based Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Technique for Fault Diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fuyuan Xiao

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The multi-sensor data fusion technique plays a significant role in fault diagnosis and in a variety of such applications, and the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory is employed to improve the system performance; whereas, it may generate a counter-intuitive result when the pieces of evidence highly conflict with each other. To handle this problem, a novel multi-sensor data fusion approach on the basis of the distance of evidence, belief entropy and fuzzy preference relation analysis is proposed. A function of evidence distance is first leveraged to measure the conflict degree among the pieces of evidence; thus, the support degree can be obtained to represent the reliability of the evidence. Next, the uncertainty of each piece of evidence is measured by means of the belief entropy. Based on the quantitative uncertainty measured above, the fuzzy preference relations are applied to represent the relative credibility preference of the evidence. Afterwards, the support degree of each piece of evidence is adjusted by taking advantage of the relative credibility preference of the evidence that can be utilized to generate an appropriate weight with respect to each piece of evidence. Finally, the modified weights of the evidence are adopted to adjust the bodies of the evidence in the advance of utilizing Dempster’s combination rule. A numerical example and a practical application in fault diagnosis are used as illustrations to demonstrate that the proposal is reasonable and efficient in the management of conflict and fault diagnosis.

Process fault diagnosis using knowledge-based systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sudduth, A.L.

1991-01-01

Advancing technology in process plants has led to increased need for computer based process diagnostic systems to assist the operator. One approach to this problem is to use an embedded knowledge based system to interpret measurement signals. Knowledge based systems using only symptom based rules are inadequate for real time diagnosis of dynamic systems; therefore a model based approach is necessary. Though several forms of model based reasoning have been proposed, the use of qualitative causal models incorporating first principles knowledge of process behavior structure, and function appear to have the most promise as a robust modeling methodology. In this paper the structure of a diagnostic system is described which uses model based reasoning and conventional numerical methods to perform process diagnosis. This system is being applied to emergency diesel generator system in nuclear stations

Contemporary risk estimates of three HbA1c variables in relation to heart failure following diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Skrtic, Stanko; Cabrera, Claudia; Olsson, Marita; Schnecke, Volker; Lind, Marcus

2017-03-01

We evaluated the association between glycaemic control and the risk of heart failure (HF) in a contemporary cohort of persons followed after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Persons with T2D diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 were retrieved from the Clinical Practice Research Data Link in the UK and followed from diagnosis until the event of HF, mortality, drop out from the database due to any other reason, or the end of the study on 1 July 2015. The association between each of three different haemoglobin A 1C (HbA 1c ) metrics and HF was estimated using adjusted proportional hazard models. In the overall cohort (n=94 332), the increased risk for HF per 1% (10 mmol/mol) increase in HbA 1c was 1.15 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.18) for updated mean HbA 1c , and 1.06 (1.04 to 1.07) and 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08) for baseline HbA 1c and updated latest HbA 1c , respectively. When categorised, the hazard risk (HR) for the updated mean HbA 1c in relation to HF became higher than for baseline and updated latest HbA 1c above HbA 1c levels of 9%, but did not differ at lower HbA 1c levels. The updated latest variable showed an increased risk for HbA 1c <6% (42 mmol/mol) of 1.16 (1.07 to 1.25), relative category 6-7%, while the HRs for updated mean and baseline HbA 1c showed no such J-shaped pattern. Hyperglycaemia is still a risk factor for HF in persons with T2D of similar magnitude as in earlier cohorts. Such a relationship exists for current glycaemic levels, at diagnosis and the overall level but the pattern differs for these variables. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Organizational Diagnosis in Project-Based Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behrouz Zarei

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop a new method for corporate diagnosis (CD. To this end, a method is developed for the diagnosis process of project-based companies. The article presents a case study in a large company where data have been collected through focus groups. Project delay, high project cost, and low profitability are examples of project deficiency in project-based companies. Such issues have made managers pay special attention to find effective solutions to improve them. Prominent factors are inappropriate strategy, structure, system, human resource management, and PMBOK(Project Management Body of Knowledge processes. Thus, CD and analysis is an important task in improvement of corporate performance. The CD model that is developed in this article could be used for project-based companies. The proposed method can be used for CD in any project-based company. This article provides an emphatic application of CD as a prerequisite for restructuring in project-based companies.

Risk of Periodontal Diseases in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Te-Chun; Chang, Pei-Ying; Lin, Cheng-Li; Chen, Chia-Hung; Tu, Chih-Yen; Hsia, Te-Chun; Shih, Chuen-Ming; Hsu, Wu-Huei; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-11-01

Several studies have reported an association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and periodontal diseases. However, a large-scale population-based cohort study was previously absent from the literature. Therefore, we evaluated the risk of periodontal diseases in patients with COPD in a nationwide population.From the National Health Insurance claims data of Taiwan, we identified 22,332 patients with COPD who were newly diagnosed during 2000 to 2010. For each case, two individuals without COPD were randomly selected and frequency matched by age, sex, and diagnosis year. Both groups were followed up till the end of 2011.The overall incidence of periodontal diseases was 1.19-fold greater in the COPD group than in the comparison group (32.2 vs 26.4 per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-1.24). Compared with non-COPD patients, the adjusted hazard ratios of patients with COPD increased with the number of emergency room visits (from 1.14 [95% CI 1.10-1.19] to 5.09 [95% CI 4.53-5.72]) and admissions (from 1.15 [95% CI 1.10-1.20] to 3.17 [95% CI 2.81-3.57]). In addition, the adjusted hazard ratios of patients with COPD treated with inhaled corticosteroids (1.22, 95% CI 1.11-1.34) and systemic corticosteroids (1.15, 95% CI 1.07-1.23) were significantly higher than those of patients not treated with corticosteroids.Patient with COPD are at a higher risk of developing periodontal diseases than the general population. Our results also support that the risk of periodontal diseases is proportional to COPD control. In addition, patients who receive corticosteroid treatment are at a higher risk of developing periodontal diseases.

Rule - based Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deng Xiao-Wen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Under the trend of increasing installed capacity of wind power, the intelligent fault diagnosis of wind turbine is of great significance to the safe and efficient operation of wind farms. Based on the knowledge of fault diagnosis of wind turbines, this paper builds expert system diagnostic knowledge base by using confidence production rules and expert system self-learning method. In Visual Studio 2013 platform, C # language is selected and ADO.NET technology is used to access the database. Development of Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine. The purpose of this paper is to realize on-line diagnosis of wind turbine fault through human-computer interaction, and to improve the diagnostic capability of the system through the continuous improvement of the knowledge base.

Risk of thyroid cancer in patients with thyroiditis: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chien-Liang; Cheng, Shih-Ping; Lin, Hui-Wen; Lai, Yuen-Liang

2014-03-01

The causative relationship between autoimmune thyroiditis and thyroid cancer remains a controversial issue. The aim of this population-based study was to investigate the risk of thyroid cancer in patients with thyroiditis. From the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005) of Taiwan, we identified adult patients newly diagnosed with thyroiditis between 2004 and 2009 (n = 1,654). The comparison cohort (n = 8,270) included five randomly selected age- and sex-matched controls for each patient in the study cohort. All patients were followed up from the date of cohort entry until they developed thyroid cancer or to the end of 2010. Multivariate Cox regression was used to assess the risk of developing thyroid cancer. A total of 1,000 bootstrap replicates were created for internal validation. A total of 35 patients developed thyroid cancer during the study period, of whom 24 were from the thyroiditis cohort and 11 were from the comparison cohort (incidence 353 and 22 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for thyroid cancer in patients with thyroiditis was 13.24 (95 % CI 6.40-27.39). Excluding cancers occurring within 1 year of follow-up, the HR remained significantly increased (6.64; 95 % CI 2.35-18.75). Hypothyroidism was not an independent factor associated with the occurrence of thyroid cancer. We found an increased risk for the development of thyroid cancer after a diagnosis of thyroiditis, independent of comorbidities.

[Rapid prenatal genetic diagnosis of a fetus with a high risk for Morquio A syndrome].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yi-bin; Ai, Yang; Zhao, Yan; Tang, Jia; Jiang, Wei-ying; Du, Min-lian; Ma, Hua-mei; Zhong, Yan-fang

2012-04-01

To provide rapid and accurate prenatal genetic diagnosis for a fetus with high risk of Morquio A syndrome. Based on ascertained etiology of the proband and genotypes of the parents, particular mutations of the GALNS gene were screened at 10th gestational week with amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS), denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC), and direct DNA sequencing. DHPLC screening has identified abnormal double peaks in the PCR products of exons 1 and 10, whilst only a single peak was detected in normal controls. Amplification of ARMS specific primers derived a specific product for the fetus's gene, whilst no similar product was detected in normal controls. Sequencing of PCR products confirmed that exons 1 and 10 of the GALNS gene from the fetus contained a heterozygous paternal c.106-111 del (p.L36-L37 del) deletion and a heterozygous maternal c.1097 T>C (p.L366P) missense mutation, which resulted in a compound heterozygote status. The fetus was diagnosed with Morquio A syndrome and a genotype similar to the proband. Termination of the pregnancy was recommended. Combined ARMS, DHPLC and DNA sequencing are effective for rapid and accurate prenatal diagnosis for fetus with a high risk for Morquio A syndrome. Such methods are particularly suitable for early diagnosis when pathogenesis is clear. Furthermore, combined ARMS and DHPLC are suitable for rapid processing of large numbers of samples for the identification of new mutations.

Failure diagnosis using deep belief learning based health state classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamilselvan, Prasanna; Wang, Pingfeng

2013-01-01

Effective health diagnosis provides multifarious benefits such as improved safety, improved reliability and reduced costs for operation and maintenance of complex engineered systems. This paper presents a novel multi-sensor health diagnosis method using deep belief network (DBN). DBN has recently become a popular approach in machine learning for its promised advantages such as fast inference and the ability to encode richer and higher order network structures. The DBN employs a hierarchical structure with multiple stacked restricted Boltzmann machines and works through a layer by layer successive learning process. The proposed multi-sensor health diagnosis methodology using DBN based state classification can be structured in three consecutive stages: first, defining health states and preprocessing sensory data for DBN training and testing; second, developing DBN based classification models for diagnosis of predefined health states; third, validating DBN classification models with testing sensory dataset. Health diagnosis using DBN based health state classification technique is compared with four existing diagnosis techniques. Benchmark classification problems and two engineering health diagnosis applications: aircraft engine health diagnosis and electric power transformer health diagnosis are employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach

5 CFR 9901.312 - Maximum rates of base salary and adjusted salary.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Maximum rates of base salary and adjusted salary. 9901.312 Section 9901.312 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE HUMAN RESOURCES....312 Maximum rates of base salary and adjusted salary. (a) Subject to § 9901.105, the Secretary may...

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

A typology of interpartner conflict and maternal parenting practices in high-risk families: examining spillover and compensatory models and implications for child adjustment.

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Sturge-Apple, Melissa L; Davies, Patrick T; Cicchetti, Dante; Fittoria, Michael G

2014-11-01

The present study incorporates a person-based approach to identify spillover and compartmentalization patterns of interpartner conflict and maternal parenting practices in an ethnically diverse sample of 192 2-year-old children and their mothers who had experienced higher levels of socioeconomic risk. In addition, we tested whether sociocontextual variables were differentially predictive of theses profiles and examined how interpartner-parenting profiles were associated with children's physiological and psychological adjustment over time. As expected, latent class analyses extracted three primary profiles of functioning: adequate functioning, spillover, and compartmentalizing families. Furthermore, interpartner-parenting profiles were differentially associated with both sociocontextual predictors and children's adjustment trajectories. The findings highlight the developmental utility of incorporating person-based approaches to models of interpartner conflict and maternal parenting practices.

Perceived social risk in medical decision-making for physical child abuse: a mixed-methods study.

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Keenan, Heather T; Campbell, Kristine A; Page, Kent; Cook, Lawrence J; Bardsley, Tyler; Olson, Lenora M

2017-12-22

The medical literature reports differential decision-making for children with suspected physical abuse based on race and socioeconomic status. Differential evaluation may be related to differences of risk indicators in these populations or differences in physicians' perceptions of abuse risk. Our objective was to understand the contribution of the child's social ecology to child abuse pediatricians' perception of abuse risk and to test whether risk perception influences diagnostic decision-making. Thirty-two child abuse pediatrician participants prospectively contributed 746 consultations from for children referred for physical abuse evaluation (2009-2013). Participants entered consultations to a web-based interface. Participants noted their perception of child race, family SES, abuse diagnosis. Participants rated their perception of social risk for abuse and diagnostic certainty on a 1-100 scale. Consultations (n = 730) meeting inclusion criteria were qualitatively analyzed for social risk indicators, social and non-social cues. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we examined the associations of social risk indicators with participant social risk perception. We reversed social risk indicators in 102 cases whilst leaving all injury mechanism and medical information unchanged. Participants reviewed these reversed cases and recorded their social risk perception, diagnosis and diagnostic certainty. After adjustment for physician characteristics and social risk indicators, social risk perception was highest in the poorest non-minority families (24.9 points, 95%CI: 19.2, 30.6) and minority families (17.9 points, 95%CI, 12.8, 23.0). Diagnostic certainty and perceived social risk were associated: certainty increased as social risk perception increased (Spearman correlation 0.21, p < 0.001) in probable abuse cases; certainty decreased as risk perception increased (Spearman correlation (-)0.19, p = 0.003) in probable not abuse cases. Diagnostic decisions changed

Family characteristics as risk factors for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a population-based case-control study.

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Martin Feller

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To date, few risk factors for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL have been confirmed and the scientific literature is full of controversial "evidence." We examined if family characteristics, particularly maternal and paternal age and number of older siblings, were risk factors for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this population-based nationwide matched case-control study, patients 0-14 years of age with ALL diagnosed 1991-2006 and registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry were linked with their census records of 1990 and 2000. Eight controls per case were selected from the census. The association between family characteristics and ALL was analyzed by conditional logistic regressions. We found that increasing maternal age was associated with incidence of ALL in the offspring (OR per 5-year increase in maternal age 1.18, 95% CI 1.05-1.31; p = 0.004, remaining stable (trend OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.99-1.31; p = 0.060 after adjustment for other risk factors. The association with paternal age was weaker (OR per 5-year increase 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28, p = 0.032 and disappeared after adjustments. Number of older siblings was not associated with risk of ALL in the overall group of children aged 0-14 years at diagnosis. However, we found a negative trend between number of older siblings and ALL diagnosed at age 0-4 years (OR per sibling 0.85, 95% CI 0.68-1.06; p = 0.141 and a positive trend for ALL diagnosed at age 5-9 (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.05-1.72; p = 0.019, with some evidence for an effect modification (p-value for interaction  = 0.040. CONCLUSIONS: As in other studies, increasing maternal, but not paternal age was associated with risk of ALL. We found only a weak association with the number of older siblings, suggesting a delay in disease manifestation rather than a decrease in incidence.

A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

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Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

2016-04-01

Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

Timing of initiation of enzyme replacement therapy after diagnosis of type 1 Gaucher disease: effect on incidence of avascular necrosis

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Mistry, Pramod K; Deegan, Patrick; Vellodi, Ashok; Cole, J Alexander; Yeh, Michael; Weinreb, Neal J

2009-01-01

Data from the International Collaborative Gaucher Group Gaucher Registry were analysed to assess the relationship between enzyme replacement therapy with imiglucerase (ERT) and incidence of avascular necrosis (AVN) in type 1 Gaucher disease (GD1), and to determine whether the time interval between diagnosis and initiation of ERT influences the incidence rate of AVN. All patients with GD1 enrolled in the Gaucher Registry who received ERT and did not report AVN prior to starting therapy (n = 2700) were included. The incidence rate of AVN following initiation of ERT was determined. An incidence rate of AVN of 13·8 per 1000 person-years was observed in patients receiving ERT. Patients who initiated ERT within 2 years of diagnosis had an incidence rate of 8·1 per 1000 person-years; patients who started ERT ≥2 years after diagnosis had an incidence rate of 16·6 per 1000 person-years. The adjusted incidence rate ratio was 0·59 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·36–0·96, P = 0·0343]. Splenectomy was an independent risk factor for AVN (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2·23, 95% CI 1·61–3·08, P < 0·0001). In conclusion, the risk of AVN was reduced among patients who initiated ERT within 2 years of diagnosis, compared to initiating treatment ≥2 years after diagnosis. A higher risk of AVN was observed among patients who had previously undergone splenectomy. PMID:19732054

Impact of gender on the risk of AIDS-defining illnesses and mortality in Danish HIV-1-infected patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorsteinsson, Kristina; Ladelund, Steen; Jensen-Fangel, Søren

2012-01-01

Abstract Background: Gender differences in the risk of AIDS-defining illness (ADI) and mortality have been reported in the HIV-1-infected (HIV-positive) population, with conflicting findings. We aimed to assess the impact of gender on the risk of ADI and death in HIV-positive patients infected...... sexually. Methods: This was a population-based, nationwide cohort study of incident Danish HIV-positive individuals infected by sexual contact. Outcomes were progression to AIDS and death. We used Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression analyses to calculate the risk of progression to AIDS...... diagnosis MSM had a lower prevalence of AIDS compared to MSW. Women and MSW presented more often with tuberculosis and less often with AIDS-defining cancers compared to MSM. In the adjusted analyses we observed no differences in progression to AIDS. In the adjusted analyses of risk of death, there were...

Quality of life, psychological adjustment, and adaptive functioning of patients with intoxication-type inborn errors of metabolism - a systematic review.

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Zeltner, Nina A; Huemer, Martina; Baumgartner, Matthias R; Landolt, Markus A

2014-10-25

In recent decades, considerable progress in diagnosis and treatment of patients with intoxication-type inborn errors of metabolism (IT-IEM) such as urea cycle disorders (UCD), organic acidurias (OA), maple syrup urine disease (MSUD), or tyrosinemia type 1 (TYR 1) has resulted in a growing group of long-term survivors. However, IT-IEM still require intense patient and caregiver effort in terms of strict dietetic and pharmacological treatment, and the threat of metabolic crises is always present. Furthermore, crises can affect the central nervous system (CNS), leading to cognitive, behavioural and psychiatric sequelae. Consequently, the well-being of the patients warrants consideration from both a medical and a psychosocial viewpoint by assessing health-related quality of life (HrQoL), psychological adjustment, and adaptive functioning. To date, an overview of findings on these topics for IT-IEM is lacking. We therefore aimed to systematically review the research on HrQoL, psychological adjustment, and adaptive functioning in patients with IT-IEM. Relevant databases were searched with predefined keywords. Study selection was conducted in two steps based on predefined criteria. Two independent reviewers completed the selection and data extraction. Eleven articles met the inclusion criteria. Studies were of varying methodological quality and used different assessment measures. Findings on HrQoL were inconsistent, with some showing lower and others showing higher or equal HrQoL for IT-IEM patients compared to norms. Findings on psychological adjustment and adaptive functioning were more consistent, showing mostly either no difference or worse adjustment of IT-IEM patients compared to norms. Single medical risk factors for HrQoL, psychological adjustment, or adaptive functioning have been addressed, while psychosocial risk factors have not been addressed. Data on HrQoL, psychological adjustment, and adaptive functioning for IT-IEM are sparse. Studies are inconsistent in

[Definition of the Diagnosis Osteomyelitis-Osteomyelitis Diagnosis Score (ODS)].

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Schmidt, H G K; Tiemann, A H; Braunschweig, R; Diefenbeck, M; Bühler, M; Abitzsch, D; Haustedt, N; Walter, G; Schoop, R; Heppert, V; Hofmann, G O; Glombitza, M; Grimme, C; Gerlach, U-J; Flesch, I

2011-08-01

The disease "osteomyelitis" is characterised by different symptoms and parameters. Decisive roles in the development of the disease are played by the causative bacteria, the route of infection and the individual defense mechanisms of the host. The diagnosis is based on different symptoms and findings from the clinical history, clinical symptoms, laboratory results, diagnostic imaging, microbiological and histopathological analyses. While different osteomyelitis classifications have been published, there is to the best of our knowledge no score that gives information how sure the diagnosis "osteomyelitis" is in general. For any scientific study of a disease a valid definition is essential. We have developed a special osteomyelitis diagnosis score for the reliable classification of clinical, laboratory and technical findings. The score is based on five diagnostic procedures: 1) clinical history and risk factors, 2) clinical examination and laboratory results, 3) diagnostic imaging (ultrasound, radiology, CT, MRI, nuclear medicine and hybrid methods), 4) microbiology, and 5) histopathology. Each diagnostic procedure is related to many individual findings, which are weighted by a score system, in order to achieve a relevant value for each assessment. If the sum of the five diagnostic criteria is 18 or more points, the diagnosis of osteomyelitis can be viewed as "safe" (diagnosis class A). Between 8-17 points the diagnosis is "probable" (diagnosis class B). Less than 8 points means that the diagnosis is "possible, but unlikely" (class C diagnosis). Since each parameter can score six points at a maximum, a reliable diagnosis can only be achieved if at least 3 parameters are scored with 6 points. The osteomyelitis diagnosis score should help to avoid the false description of a clinical presentation as "osteomyelitis". A safe diagnosis is essential for the aetiology, treatment and outcome studies of osteomyelitis. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Group-based parent training programmes for improving emotional and behavioural adjustment in young children.

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Barlow, Jane; Bergman, Hanna; Kornør, Hege; Wei, Yinghui; Bennett, Cathy

2016-08-01

reduced negative behaviour (SMD -0.22, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.06; 7 studies, 941 participants, moderate quality evidence), and improved positive behaviour (SMD 0.48, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.79; 4 studies, 173 participants, moderate quality evidence) as rated by independent observers postintervention. No further meta-analyses were possible. Results of subgroup analyses show no evidence for treatment duration (seven weeks or less versus more than eight weeks) and inconclusive evidence for prevention versus treatment interventions. The findings of this review, which relate to the broad group of universal and at-risk (targeted) children and parents, provide tentative support for the use of group-based parenting programmes to improve the overall emotional and behavioural adjustment of children with a maximum mean age of three years and 11 months, in the short-term. There is, however, a need for more research regarding the role that these programmes might play in the primary prevention of both emotional and behavioural problems, and their long-term effectiveness.

Adjustment of lifetime risks of space radiation-induced cancer by the healthy worker effect and cancer misclassification

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Leif E. Peterson

2015-12-01

Conclusions. The typical life table approach for projecting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality and incidence for astronauts and radiation workers can be improved by adjusting for HWE while simulating the uncertainty of input rates, input excess risk coefficients, and bias correction factors during multiple Monte Carlo realizations of the life table.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

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Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

Population-Adjusted Street Connectivity, Urbanicity and Risk of Obesity in the U.S

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Wang, Fahui; Wen, Ming; Xu, Yanqing

2013-01-01

Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic variations across the rural-urban continuum (urbanicity), major racial-ethnic groups and various poverty levels. The population-adjusted street connectivity index is proposed as a better measure than the regular index for a large area such as county due to likely concentration of population in limited space within the large area. Based on the data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), this paper uses multilevel modeling to analyze its association with physical activity and obesity while controlling for various individual and county-level variables. Analysis of data subsets indicates that the influences of individual and county-level variables on obesity risk vary across areas of different urbanization levels. The positive influence of street connectivity on obesity control is limited to the more but not the mostly urbanized areas. This demonstrates the value of obesogenic environment research in different geographic settings, helps us reconcile and synthesize some seemingly contradictory results reported in different studies, and also promotes that effective policies need to be highly sensitive to the diversity of demographic groups and geographically adaptable. PMID:23667278

Impact of selected risk factors on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

2007-01-01

AIMS: The construct quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combines mortality and overall health status and can be used to quantify the impact of risk factors on population health. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity...... Health Survey 2000, and Danish EQ-5D values. RESULTS: The quality-adjusted life expectancy of 25-year-olds was 10-11 QALYs shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke. The difference in life expectancy was 9-10 years. Men and women with high alcohol consumption could expect to lose about 5...... and 3 QALYs, respectively. Sedentary persons could expect to have about 7 fewer QALYs than physically active persons. Obesity shortened QALYs by almost 3 for men and 6 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and obesity strongly reduce life expectancy and health...

Learning-based diagnosis and repair

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roos, Nico

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a new form of diagnosis and repair based on reinforcement learning. Self-interested agents learn locally which agents may provide a low quality of service for a task. The correctness of learned assessments of other agents is proved under conditions on exploration versus

Socioeconomic disparities in breast cancer survival: relation to stage at diagnosis, treatment and race

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Yu Xue

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have documented lower breast cancer survival among women with lower socioeconomic status (SES in the United States. In this study, I examined the extent to which socioeconomic disparity in breast cancer survival was explained by stage at diagnosis, treatment, race and rural/urban residence using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER data. Methods Women diagnosed with breast cancer during 1998-2002 in the 13 SEER cancer registry areas were followed-up to the end of 2005. The association between an area-based measure of SES and cause-specific five-year survival was estimated using Cox regression models. Six models were used to assess the extent to which SES differences in survival were explained by clinical and demographical factors. The base model estimated the hazard ratio (HR by SES only and then additional adjustments were made sequentially for: 1 age and year of diagnosis; 2 stage at diagnosis; 3 first course treatment; 4 race; and 5 rural/urban residence. Results An inverse association was found between SES and risk of dying from breast cancer (p Conclusion Stage at diagnosis, first course treatment and race explained most of the socioeconomic disparity in breast cancer survival. Targeted interventions to increase breast cancer screening and treatment coverage in patients with lower SES could reduce much of socioeconomic disparity.

Congenital and hereditary causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk stratification.

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Stojanovska, Jadranka; Garg, Anubhav; Patel, Smita; Melville, David M; Kazerooni, Ella A; Mueller, Gisela C

2013-01-01

Sudden cardiac death is defined as death from unexpected circulatory arrest-usually a result of cardiac arrhythmia-that occurs within 1 hour of the onset of symptoms. Proper and timely identification of individuals at risk for sudden cardiac death and the diagnosis of its predisposing conditions are vital. A careful history and physical examination, in addition to electrocardiography and cardiac imaging, are essential to identify conditions associated with sudden cardiac death. Among young adults (18-35 years), sudden cardiac death most commonly results from a previously undiagnosed congenital or hereditary condition, such as coronary artery anomalies and inherited cardiomyopathies (eg, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC], dilated cardiomyopathy, and noncompaction cardiomyopathy). Overall, the most common causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults are, in descending order of frequency, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery anomalies with an interarterial or intramural course, and ARVC. Often, sudden cardiac death is precipitated by ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation and may be prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Risk stratification to determine the need for an ICD is challenging and involves imaging, particularly echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Coronary artery anomalies, a diverse group of congenital disorders with a variable manifestation, may be depicted at coronary computed tomographic angiography or MR angiography. A thorough understanding of clinical risk stratification, imaging features, and complementary diagnostic tools for the evaluation of cardiac disorders that may lead to sudden cardiac death is essential to effectively use imaging to guide diagnosis and therapy.

Increased risk of ischemic stroke in young patients with ankylosing spondylitis: a population-based longitudinal follow-up study.

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Lin, Chia-Wei; Huang, Ya-Ping; Chiu, Yueh-Hsia; Ho, Yu-Tsun; Pan, Shin-Liang

2014-01-01

Prospective data on the association between ischemic stroke and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in the young are sparse. The purpose of this population-based, age- and sex-matched longitudinal follow-up study was to investigate the risk of developing ischemic stroke in young patients with AS. A total of 4562 patients aged 18- to 45-year-old with at least two ambulatory visits in 2001 with a principal diagnosis of AS were enrolled in the AS group. The non-AS group consisted of 22810 age- and sex-matched, randomly sampled subjects without AS. The two-year ischemic stroke-free survival rate for each group were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratio of ischemic stroke after adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. During follow-up, 21 patients in the AS group and 53 in the non-AS group developed ischemic stroke. The ischemic stroke-free survival rate over the 2 year follow-up was lower in the AS group than the non-AS group (p = 0.0021). The crude hazard ratio of ischemic stroke for the AS group was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.20-3.29; p = 0.0079) and the adjusted hazard ratio after controlling for demographic and comorbid medical disorders was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.16-3.20; p = 0.0110). Our study showed an increased risk of developing ischemic stroke in young patients with AS.

Performance of risk-adjusted control charts to monitor in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients: A simulation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; de Jonge, Evert; Cook, David A.; Peek, Niels

2012-01-01

Objectives: Increases in case-mix adjusted mortality may be indications of decreasing quality of care. Risk-adjusted control charts can be used for in-hospital mortality monitoring in intensive care units by issuing a warning signal when there are more deaths than expected. The aim of this study was

Influence of family size and birth order on risk of cancer: a population-based study.

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Bevier, Melanie; Weires, Marianne; Thomsen, Hauke; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2011-05-09

Family size and birth order are known to influence the risk of some cancers. However, it is still unknown whether these effects change from early to later adulthood. We used the data of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to further analyze these effects. We selected over 5.7 million offspring with identified parents but no parental cancer. We estimated the effect of birth order and family size by Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, period, region and socioeconomic status. We divided the age at diagnosis in two groups, below and over 50 years, to identify the effect of family size and birth order for different age periods. Negative associations for increasing birth order were found for endometrial, testicular, skin, thyroid and connective tissue cancers and melanoma. In contrast, we observed positive association between birth order and lung, male and female genital cancers. Family size was associated with decreasing risk for endometrial and testicular cancers, melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma; risk was increased for leukemia and nervous system cancer. The effect of birth order decreased for lung and endometrial cancer from age at diagnosis below to over 50 years. Combined effects for birth order and family size were marginally significant for thyroid gland tumors. Especially, the relative risk for follicular thyroid gland tumors was significantly decreased for increasing birth order. Our findings suggest that the effect of birth order decreases from early to late adulthood for lung and endometrial cancer.

Influence of family size and birth order on risk of cancer: a population-based study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bevier, Melanie; Weires, Marianne; Thomsen, Hauke; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2011-01-01

Family size and birth order are known to influence the risk of some cancers. However, it is still unknown whether these effects change from early to later adulthood. We used the data of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to further analyze these effects. We selected over 5.7 million offspring with identified parents but no parental cancer. We estimated the effect of birth order and family size by Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, period, region and socioeconomic status. We divided the age at diagnosis in two groups, below and over 50 years, to identify the effect of family size and birth order for different age periods. Negative associations for increasing birth order were found for endometrial, testicular, skin, thyroid and connective tissue cancers and melanoma. In contrast, we observed positive association between birth order and lung, male and female genital cancers. Family size was associated with decreasing risk for endometrial and testicular cancers, melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma; risk was increased for leukemia and nervous system cancer. The effect of birth order decreased for lung and endometrial cancer from age at diagnosis below to over 50 years. Combined effects for birth order and family size were marginally significant for thyroid gland tumors. Especially, the relative risk for follicular thyroid gland tumors was significantly decreased for increasing birth order. Our findings suggest that the effect of birth order decreases from early to late adulthood for lung and endometrial cancer

Influence of family size and birth order on risk of cancer: a population-based study

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Sundquist Jan

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Family size and birth order are known to influence the risk of some cancers. However, it is still unknown whether these effects change from early to later adulthood. We used the data of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to further analyze these effects. Methods We selected over 5.7 million offspring with identified parents but no parental cancer. We estimated the effect of birth order and family size by Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, period, region and socioeconomic status. We divided the age at diagnosis in two groups, below and over 50 years, to identify the effect of family size and birth order for different age periods. Results Negative associations for increasing birth order were found for endometrial, testicular, skin, thyroid and connective tissue cancers and melanoma. In contrast, we observed positive association between birth order and lung, male and female genital cancers. Family size was associated with decreasing risk for endometrial and testicular cancers, melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma; risk was increased for leukemia and nervous system cancer. The effect of birth order decreased for lung and endometrial cancer from age at diagnosis below to over 50 years. Combined effects for birth order and family size were marginally significant for thyroid gland tumors. Especially, the relative risk for follicular thyroid gland tumors was significantly decreased for increasing birth order. Conclusion Our findings suggest that the effect of birth order decreases from early to late adulthood for lung and endometrial cancer.

DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF CHOLECYSTITIS DEVELOPMENT ON THE BASIS OF NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS

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V. A. Lazarenko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. To develop an artificial neural network for diagnosing and predicting the development of cholecystitis based on an analysis of data on risk factors, and to explore the possibilities of its application in real clinical practice.Materials and methods. The collection of materials was held in at the hospitals of the city of Kursk and included a survey of 488 patients with hepatopancreatoduodenal diseases. 203 patients were suffering from cholecystitis, in 285 patients the diagnosis of cholecystitis was excluded. Analysis of risk factors’ data (such as sex, age, bad habits, profession, family relationships, etc. was carried out using an internally developed artificial neural network (multilayer perceptron with hyperbolic tangent as the activation function. The computer program “System of Intellectual Analysis and Diagnosis of Diseases” was registered in accordance with established procedure (Certificate No. 2017613090.Results. The use of neural network analysis of data on risk factors in comparison with the processing of information that forms a clinical picture allows the diagnosis of a potential disease with cholecystitis before the onset of symptoms. The training of the artificial neural network with a quantitative output coding the age of probable hospitalization made it possible to generate an array of values, signifficantly (α ≤ 0.001 not differing from the empirical data. The difference between the mean calculated and mean empirical values was 0.45 for the training set and 1.75 for the clinical approbation group. The mean absolute error was within the range of 1.87–2.07 years.Conclusion. 1. The proposed new approach to the diagnosis and prognosis of cholecystitis has demonstrated its effectiveness, which is confirmed in clinical approbation by the levels of sensitivity (94.44%, m = 2.26 and specificity (80.6%, m = 3.9.2. The error in predicting the age of probable hospitalization of patients with cholecystitis did not

Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

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W. Septiani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

Risk of Dementia in Patients with Spinal Cord Injury: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

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Huang, Shih-Wei; Wang, Wei-Te; Chou, Lin-Chuan; Liou, Tsan-Hon; Lin, Hui-Wen

2017-02-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) can cause physical disability and psychological distress; however, whether SCI is a risk factor for dementia is unclear. This study evaluated the incidence of dementia in patients with SCI. Study participants were recruited from a nationwide cohort during 2004-2007 and categorized into SCI (patients diagnosed with SCI; n = 941) and non-SCI (age- and sex-matched controls; n = 5060) cohorts. Each participant was followed for 7 years until diagnosis of dementia or December 31, 2010, whichever occurred first. Data were subjected to Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. The incidence of dementia was significantly higher in the SCI cohort (1106 per 100,000 person-years) than in the non-SCI cohort (p < 0.001). Patients with SCI had a significantly higher risk of dementia than did those without SCI (crude hazard ratio [HR] = 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.57-2.92, p < 0.001 vs. adjusted HR = 1.95, 95% CI, 1.43-2.67, p < 0.001). Further analysis found that there is no statistical significance of higher risk for developing Alzheimer's disease among SCI patients, but that SCI patients were at higher risk of developing other types of dementia than the control cohort (crude HR = 1.88, 95% CI, 1.33-2.63, p < 0.001 vs. adjusted HR = 1.90, 95% CI, 1.35-2.68, p < 0.001). In conclusion, patients with SCI are at high risk of dementia, and effective dementia prevention strategies are recommended for comprehensive SCI care.

The Impact of Capital Structure on Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Performance

OpenAIRE

Porteous, Bruce; Tapadar, Pradip

2008-01-01

The impact that capital structure and capital asset allocation have on financial services firm economic capital and risk adjusted performance is considered. A stochastic modelling approach is used in conjunction with banking and insurance examples. It is demonstrated that gearing up Tier 1 capital with Tier 2 capital can be in the interests of bank Tier 1 capital providers, but may not always be so for insurance Tier 1 capital providers. It is also shown that, by allocating a bank or insuranc...

Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

2017-12-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Change in cardiovascular risk factors following early diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: a cohort analysis of a cluster-randomised trial

OpenAIRE

Black, James A; Sharp, Stephen J; Wareham, Nicholas J; Sandbæk, Annelli; Rutten, Guy EHM; Lauritzen, Torsten; Khunti, Kamlesh; Davies, Melanie J; Borch-Johnsen, Knut; Griffin, Simon J; Simmons, Rebecca K

2014-01-01

Background There is little evidence to inform the targeted treatment of individuals found early in the diabetes disease trajectory. Aim To describe cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles and treatment of individual CVD risk factors by modelled CVD risk at diagnosis; changes in treatment, modelled CVD risk, and CVD risk factors in the 5 years following diagnosis; and how these are patterned by socioeconomic status. Design and setting Cohort analysis of a cluster-randomised trial (ADDITION-...

Assessing At-Risk Youth Using the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory with a Latino Population

Science.gov (United States)

Balkin, Richard S.; Cavazos, Javier, Jr.; Hernandez, Arthur E.; Garcia, Roberto; Dominguez, Denise L.; Valarezo, Alexandra

2013-01-01

Factor analyses were conducted on scores from the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory (RAASI; Reynolds, 2001) representing at-risk Latino youth. The 4-factor model of the RAASI did not exhibit a good fit. However, evidence of generalizability for Latino youth was noted. (Contains 3 tables.)

High yield of culture-based diagnosis in a TB-endemic setting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Demers, Anne-Marie; Verver, Suzanne; Boulle, Andrew; Warren, Robin; van Helden, Paul; Behr, Marcel A.; Coetzee, David

2012-01-01

Background: In most of the world, microbiologic diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is limited to microscopy. Recent guidelines recommend culture-based diagnosis where feasible. Methods: In order to evaluate the relative and absolute incremental diagnostic yield of culture-based diagnosis in a

Research on Fault Diagnosis Method Based on Rule Base Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zheng Ni

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between fault phenomenon and fault cause is always nonlinear, which influences the accuracy of fault location. And neural network is effective in dealing with nonlinear problem. In order to improve the efficiency of uncertain fault diagnosis based on neural network, a neural network fault diagnosis method based on rule base is put forward. At first, the structure of BP neural network is built and the learning rule is given. Then, the rule base is built by fuzzy theory. An improved fuzzy neural construction model is designed, in which the calculated methods of node function and membership function are also given. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of this method.

Contrast Enhancement Algorithm Based on Gap Adjustment for Histogram Equalization

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Chung-Cheng; Ting, Chih-Chung

2016-01-01

Image enhancement methods have been widely used to improve the visual effects of images. Owing to its simplicity and effectiveness histogram equalization (HE) is one of the methods used for enhancing image contrast. However, HE may result in over-enhancement and feature loss problems that lead to unnatural look and loss of details in the processed images. Researchers have proposed various HE-based methods to solve the over-enhancement problem; however, they have largely ignored the feature loss problem. Therefore, a contrast enhancement algorithm based on gap adjustment for histogram equalization (CegaHE) is proposed. It refers to a visual contrast enhancement algorithm based on histogram equalization (VCEA), which generates visually pleasing enhanced images, and improves the enhancement effects of VCEA. CegaHE adjusts the gaps between two gray values based on the adjustment equation, which takes the properties of human visual perception into consideration, to solve the over-enhancement problem. Besides, it also alleviates the feature loss problem and further enhances the textures in the dark regions of the images to improve the quality of the processed images for human visual perception. Experimental results demonstrate that CegaHE is a reliable method for contrast enhancement and that it significantly outperforms VCEA and other methods. PMID:27338412

Contrast Enhancement Algorithm Based on Gap Adjustment for Histogram Equalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Cheng Chiu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Image enhancement methods have been widely used to improve the visual effects of images. Owing to its simplicity and effectiveness histogram equalization (HE is one of the methods used for enhancing image contrast. However, HE may result in over-enhancement and feature loss problems that lead to unnatural look and loss of details in the processed images. Researchers have proposed various HE-based methods to solve the over-enhancement problem; however, they have largely ignored the feature loss problem. Therefore, a contrast enhancement algorithm based on gap adjustment for histogram equalization (CegaHE is proposed. It refers to a visual contrast enhancement algorithm based on histogram equalization (VCEA, which generates visually pleasing enhanced images, and improves the enhancement effects of VCEA. CegaHE adjusts the gaps between two gray values based on the adjustment equation, which takes the properties of human visual perception into consideration, to solve the over-enhancement problem. Besides, it also alleviates the feature loss problem and further enhances the textures in the dark regions of the images to improve the quality of the processed images for human visual perception. Experimental results demonstrate that CegaHE is a reliable method for contrast enhancement and that it significantly outperforms VCEA and other methods.

Concomitant NSAID use during antipsychotic treatment and risk of 2-year relapse - a population-based study of 16,253 incident patients with schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, Karl Ole; Petersen, Liselotte; Benros, Michael Eriksen

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials have indicated antipsychotic effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) among incident patients with schizophrenia. We aimed to study, in a population-based setting, whether concomitant use of NSAIDs or paracetamol, changed 2-year relapse risk...... for schizophrenia. METHODS: We identified all incident patients with schizophrenia in Denmark diagnosed 1996-2012 initiating antipsychotic treatment within the year after diagnosis. We calculated concomitant treatment intervals for antipsychotic and NSAID or paracetamol use. Hazard rate ratios (HRR) were estimated...... using Cox regression adjusted for important covariates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 2-year relapse, i.e. (re)-hospitalizations with schizophrenia. RESULTS: Among 16,235 incident patients with schizophrenia using antipsychotics, 1480 (9.1%) used NSAIDs and 767 (4.7%) paracetamol. Concomitant use of NSAIDs...

Increased incidence of peptic ulcer disease in central serous chorioretinopathy patients: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, San-Ni; Lian, Iebin; Chen, Yi-Chiao; Ho, Jau-Der

2015-02-01

To investigate peptic ulcer disease and other possible risk factors in patients with central serous chorioretinopathy (CSR) using a population-based database. In this population-based retrospective cohort study, longitudinal data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were analyzed. The study cohort comprised 835 patients with CSR and the control cohort comprised 4175 patients without CSR from January 2000 to December 2009. Conditional logistic regression was applied to examine the association of peptic ulcer disease and other possible risk factors for CSR, and stratified Cox regression models were applied to examine whether patients with CSR have an increased chance of peptic ulcer disease and hypertension development. The identifiable risk factors for CSR included peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odd ratio: 1.39, P = 0.001) and higher monthly income (adjusted odd ratio: 1.30, P = 0.006). Patients with CSR also had a significantly higher chance of developing peptic ulcer disease after the diagnosis of CSR (adjusted odd ratio: 1.43, P = 0.009). Peptic ulcer disease and higher monthly income are independent risk factors for CSR. Whereas, patients with CSR also had increased risk for peptic ulcer development.

High-risk diagnosis, social stress, and parent-child relationships: A moderation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, Eryn; Millman, Zachary B; Thompson, Elizabeth; Demro, Caroline; Kline, Emily; Pitts, Steven C; DeVylder, Jordan E; Smith, Melissa Edmondson; Reeves, Gloria; Schiffman, Jason

2016-07-01

Stress is related to symptom severity among youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis, although this relation may be influenced by protective factors. We explored whether the association of CHR diagnosis with social stress is moderated by the quality of parent-child relationships in a sample of 96 (36 CHR; 60 help-seeking controls) adolescents and young adults receiving mental health services. We examined self-reported social stress and parent-child relationships as measured by the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2), and determined CHR status from the clinician-administered Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndrome (SIPS). The social stress subscale, part of the clinical domain of the BASC-2, assesses feelings of stress and tension in personal relationships and the relations with parents subscale, part of the adaptive domain of the BASC-2, assesses perceptions of importance in family and quality of parent-child relationship. There was a modest direct relation between risk diagnosis and social stress. Among those at CHR, however, there was a significant relation between parent-child relationships and social stress (b=-0.73, t[92]=-3.77, psocial stress for those at risk for psychosis. Findings provide additional evidence to suggest that interventions that simultaneously target both social stress and parent-child relationships might be relevant for adolescents and young adults at clinical high-risk for psychosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Celiac Disease Does Not Influence Fracture Risk in Young Patients with Type 1 Diabetes

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, Norelle R; Lebwohl, Benjamin; Mollazadegan, Kaziwe; Michaëlsson, Karl; Green, Peter HR; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2015-01-01

Objectives To examine the risk of any fractures in patients with both type 1 diabetes (T1D) and celiac disease (CD) vs patients with T1D only. Study design We performed a population-based cohort study. We defined T1D as individuals aged ≤30 years who had a diagnosis of diabetes recorded in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1964–2009. Individuals with CD were identified through biopsy report data between 1969–2008 from any of Sweden’s 28 pathology departments. Some 958 individuals had both T1D and CD and were matched for sex, age and calendar period with 4,598 reference individuals with T1D only. We then used a stratified Cox regression analysis, where CD was modeled as a time-dependent covariate, to estimate the risk of any fractures and osteoporotic fractures (hip, distal forearm, thoracic and lumbar spine, and proximal humerus) in patients with both T1D and CD compared with that in patients with T1D only. Results During follow-up, 12 patients with T1D and CD had a fracture (1 osteoporotic fracture). CD did not influence the risk of any fracture (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.77; 95%CI=0.42–1.41) or osteoporotic fractures (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.46; 95%CI=0.06–3.51) in patients with T1D. Stratification for time since CD diagnosis did not affect risk estimates. Conclusion Having a diagnosis of CD does not seem to influence fracture risk in young patients with T1D. Follow-up in this study was, however, too short to ascertain osteoporotic fractures which traditionally occur in old age. PMID:26589343

Cardiometabolic Syndrome in People With Spinal Cord Injury/Disease: Guideline-Derived and Nonguideline Risk Components in a Pooled Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, Mark S; Tractenberg, Rochelle E; Mendez, Armando J; David, Maya; Ljungberg, Inger H; Tinsley, Emily A; Burns-Drecq, Patricia A; Betancourt, Luisa F; Groah, Suzanne L

2016-10-01

To assess cardiometabolic syndrome (CMS) risk definitions in spinal cord injury/disease (SCI/D). Cross-sectional analysis of a pooled sample. Two SCI/D academic medical and rehabilitation centers. Baseline data from subjects in 7 clinical studies were pooled; not all variables were collected in all studies; therefore, participant numbers varied from 119 to 389. The pooled sample included men (79%) and women (21%) with SCI/D >1 year at spinal cord levels spanning C3-T2 (American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale [AIS] grades A-D). Not applicable. We computed the prevalence of CMS using the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guideline (CMS diagnosis as sum of risks ≥3 method) for the following risk components: overweight/obesity, insulin resistance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. We compared this prevalence with the risk calculated from 2 routinely used nonguideline CMS risk assessments: (1) key cut scores identifying insulin resistance derived from the homeostatic model 2 (HOMA2) method or quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), and (2) a cardioendocrine risk ratio based on an inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP])-adjusted total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, injury level and AIS grade were unrelated to CMS or risk factors. Of the participants, 13% and 32.1% had CMS when using the sum of risks or HOMA2/QUICKI model, respectively. Overweight/obesity and (pre)hypertension were highly prevalent (83% and 62.1%, respectively), with risk for overweight/obesity being significantly associated with CMS diagnosis (sum of risks, χ(2)=10.105; adjusted P=.008). Insulin resistance was significantly associated with CMS when using the HOMA2/QUICKI model (χ(2)2=21.23, adjusted P<.001). Of the subjects, 76.4% were at moderate to high risk from elevated CRP, which was significantly associated with CMS determination (both methods; sum of risks, χ(2

Early mortality in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a developing country: the role of malnutrition at diagnosis. A multicenter cohort MIGICCL study.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-Trejo, Jorge Alfonso; Núñez-Enríquez, Juan Carlos; Fajardo-Gutiérrez, Arturo; Medina-Sansón, Aurora; Flores-Lujano, Janet; Jiménez-Hernández, Elva; Amador-Sanchez, Raquel; Peñaloza-Gonzalez, José Gabriel; Alvarez-Rodriguez, Francisco Javier; Bolea-Murga, Victoria; Espinosa-Elizondo, Rosa Martha; de Diego Flores-Chapa, José; Pérez-Saldivar, Maria Luisa; Rodriguez-Zepeda, María Del Carmen; Dorantes-Acosta, Elisa María; Núñez-Villegas, Nora Nancy; Velazquez-Aviña, Martha Margarita; Torres-Nava, José Refugio; Reyes-Zepeda, Nancy Carolina; González-Bonilla, César Raúl; Flores-Villegas, Luz Victoria; Rangel-López, Angélica; Rivera-Luna, Roberto; Paredes-Aguilera, Rogelio; Cárdenas-Cardós, Rocío; Martínez-Avalos, Armando; Gil-Hernández, Ana Elena; Duarte-Rodríguez, David Aldebarán; Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

2017-04-01

The role of malnutrition at diagnosis as a predictor of early mortality in Mexican leukemia children remains controversial. The objective of present study was to investigate whether malnutrition was a predictor of early mortality during the first year of treatment in Mexican acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) children through the first population-based study. A total of 794 newly diagnosed ALL pediatric patients from public hospitals of Mexico City were enrolled. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed and adjusted by patient's age at diagnosis, gender, hospital of treatment, and socioeconomic status. Early mortality was high (12.1%) and malnutrition by different indicators was not associated with mortality at induction phase and at 6th month; a high risk of dying (RR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.08-4.01) was observed in the group of malnourished children with a high-risk ALL.

Competing Risk Approach (CRA) for Estimation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY's) for Female Breast Cancer in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunnavil, Radhika; Thirthahalli, Chethana; Nooyi, Shalini Chandrashekar; Shivaraj, N S; Murthy, Nandagudi Srinivasa

2015-10-01

Competing Risk Approach (CRA) has been used to compute burden of disease in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) based on a life table for an initially disease-free cohort over time. To compute Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality, Years of life lost due to Disability (YLD), DALYs and loss in expectation of life (LEL) using competing risk approach for female breast cancer patients for the year 2008 in India. The published data on breast cancer by age & sex, incidence & mortality for the year 2006-2008 relating to six population based cancer registries (PBCR) under Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), general mortality rates of 2007 in India, published in national health profile 2010; based on Sample Registration System (SRS) were utilized for computations. Three life tables were constructed by applying attrition of factors: (i) risk of death from all causes ('a'; where a is the general death rate); (ii) risk of incidence and that of death from causes other than breast cancer ('b-a+c'; where 'b' is the incidence of breast cancer and 'c' is the mortality of breast cancer); and (iii) risk of death from all other causes after excluding cancer mortality ('a-c'). Taking the differences in Total Person Years Lived (TPYL), YLD and YLL were derived along with LEL. CRA revealed that the DALYs were 40209 per 100,000 females in the life time of 0-70+ years with a LEL of 0.11 years per person. Percentage of YLL to DALYs was 28.20% in the cohort. The method of calculation of DALYs based on the CRA is simple and this will help to identify the burden of diseases using minimal information in terms of YLL, YLD, DALYs and LEL.

Engine control system having fuel-based adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

Willi, Martin L [Dunlap, IL; Fiveland, Scott B [Metamora, IL; Montgomery, David T [Edelstein, IL; Gong, Weidong [Dunlap, IL

2011-03-15

A control system for an engine having a cylinder is disclosed having an engine valve configured to affect a fluid flow of the cylinder, an actuator configured to move the engine valve, and an in-cylinder sensor configured to generate a signal indicative of a characteristic of fuel entering the cylinder. The control system also has a controller in communication with the actuator and the sensor. The controller is configured to determine the characteristic of the fuel based on the signal and selectively regulate the actuator to adjust a timing of the engine valve based on the characteristic of the fuel.

Increased relative risk of subsequent affective disorders in patients with a hospital diagnosis of obesity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, A F; Kvist, T K; Andersen, P K

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk of clinical affective disorders of patients who were hospitalized because of obesity in the study period 1 January 1977 to 31 December 1999. METHOD: Using data from Danish hospital registers, three study cohorts were identified by their diagnoses at discharge from...... discharged with an index diagnosis was identified. In total, 1081 events occurred in the observation period. An index diagnosis of obesity was associated with an increased risk of affective-disorders hospitalization when compared with patients with osteoarthritis (Rate ratio: 1.35 (95% CI: 1.......09-1.67)) and tended to be associated with an increased risk when compared to patients with non-toxic goiter (Rate ratio: 1.23 (95% CI: 0.99-1.53)). Patients with obesity diagnoses who did not have additional hospital diagnoses of substance- or alcohol abuse had a risk of affective disorders that was 1.55 (95% CI: 1...

Parent-Child Communication and Adjustment Among Children With Advanced and Non-Advanced Cancer in the First Year Following Diagnosis or Relapse.

Science.gov (United States)

Keim, Madelaine C; Lehmann, Vicky; Shultz, Emily L; Winning, Adrien M; Rausch, Joseph R; Barrera, Maru; Gilmer, Mary Jo; Murphy, Lexa K; Vannatta, Kathryn A; Compas, Bruce E; Gerhardt, Cynthia A

2017-09-01

To examine parent-child communication (i.e., openness, problems) and child adjustment among youth with advanced or non-advanced cancer and comparison children. Families (n = 125) were recruited after a child's diagnosis/relapse and stratified by advanced (n = 55) or non-advanced (n = 70) disease. Comparison children (n = 60) were recruited from local schools. Children (ages 10-17) reported on communication (Parent-Adolescent Communication Scale) with both parents, while mothers reported on child adjustment (Child Behavior Checklist) at enrollment (T1) and one year (T2). Openness/problems in communication did not differ across groups at T1, but problems with fathers were higher among children with non-advanced cancer versus comparisons at T2. Openness declined for all fathers, while changes in problems varied by group for both parents. T1 communication predicted later adjustment only for children with advanced cancer. Communication plays an important role, particularly for children with advanced cancer. Additional research with families affected by life-limiting conditions is needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Increased risk of breast cancer development after diagnosis of salivary gland tumour

NARCIS (Netherlands)

In der Maur, Caroline D.; Klokman, Willem J.; van Leeuwen, Floor E.; Tan, I. Bing; Rutgers, Emiel J. Th; Balm, Alfons J. M.

2005-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether patients with salivary gland tumours are at increased risk of developing breast cancer. A retrospective cohort study was performed. Female patients (n = 439) with a salivary gland tumour (major and minor) were included. The diagnosis was confirmed

Urinary proteomic biomarkers for diagnosis and risk stratification of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a multicentric study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas D Kistler

Full Text Available Treatment options for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD will likely become available in the near future, hence reliable diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for the disease are strongly needed. Here, we aimed to define urinary proteomic patterns in ADPKD patients, which aid diagnosis and risk stratification. By capillary electrophoresis online coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS, we compared the urinary peptidome of 41 ADPKD patients to 189 healthy controls and identified 657 peptides with significantly altered excretion, of which 209 could be sequenced using tandem mass spectrometry. A support-vector-machine based diagnostic biomarker model based on the 142 most consistent peptide markers achieved a diagnostic sensitivity of 84.5% and specificity of 94.2% in an independent validation cohort, consisting of 251 ADPKD patients from five different centers and 86 healthy controls. The proteomic alterations in ADPKD included, but were not limited to markers previously associated with acute kidney injury (AKI. The diagnostic biomarker model was highly specific for ADPKD when tested in a cohort consisting of 481 patients with a variety of renal and extrarenal diseases, including AKI. Similar to ultrasound, sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic score depended on patient age and genotype. We were furthermore able to identify biomarkers for disease severity and progression. A proteomic severity score was developed to predict height adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV based on proteomic analysis of 134 ADPKD patients and showed a correlation of r = 0.415 (p<0.0001 with htTKV in an independent validation cohort consisting of 158 ADPKD patients. In conclusion, the performance of peptidomic biomarker scores is superior to any other biochemical markers of ADPKD and the proteomic biomarker patterns are a promising tool for prognostic evaluation of ADPKD.

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

2013-10-29

Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

Cancer and the risk for taking early retirement pension: a Danish cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlsen, Kathrine; Oksbjerg Dalton, Susanne; Frederiksen, Kirsten

2008-01-01

, physical and psychological comorbidity, low education and low income. Three risk categories were identified (high, medium and low) by cancer site and we found that in the high risk category, people diagnosed with leukemia, prostate cancer or ovary cancer had a more than two-fold increased risk for ERP......AIMS: The purpose of this study was to determine the risk for taking early retirement pension (ERP) in cancer survivors who were working at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide and population based cohort study including 44,905 persons aged 30-60 years diagnosed with selected...... cancers in the period 1981-2000 and 211,562 randomly sampled cancer-free controls. Information on socioeconomic status, demography and physical and psychiatric comorbidity was obtained from Danish administrative registries. RESULTS: We analyzed the risk for ERP adjusted for known risk factors and found...

39 CFR 3010.25 - Limitation on unused rate adjustment authority rate adjustments.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... only be applied together with inflation-based limitation rate adjustments or when inflation-based... used in lieu of an inflation-based limitation rate adjustment. ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation on unused rate adjustment authority...

Effects of externally rated job demand and control on depression diagnosis claims in an industrial cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

DeSanto Iennaco, Joanne; Cullen, Mark R; Cantley, Linda; Slade, Martin D; Fiellin, Martha; Kasl, Stanislav V

2010-02-01

This study examined whether externally rated job demand and control were associated with depression diagnosis claims in a heavy industrial cohort. The retrospective cohort sample consisted of 7,566 hourly workers aged 18-64 years who were actively employed at 11 US plants between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2003, and free of depression diagnosis claims during an initial 2-year run-in period. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of tertiles of demand and control exposure on depression diagnosis claims. Demand had a significant positive association with depression diagnosis claims in bivariate models and models adjusted for demographic (age, gender, race, education, job grade, tenure) and lifestyle (smoking status, body mass index, cholesterol level) variables (high demand odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.86). Control was associated with greater risk of depression diagnosis at moderate levels in unadjusted models only (odds ratio = 1.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.93), while low control, contrary to expectation, was not associated with depression. The effects of the externally rated demand exposure were lost with adjustment for location. This may reflect differences in measurement or classification of exposure, differences in depression diagnosis by location, or other location-specific factors.

Web-based diagnosis and therapy of auditory prerequisites for reading and spelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krammer, Sandra

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Cognitive deficits in auditory or visual processing or in verbal short-term-memory are amongst others risk factors for the development of dyslexia (reading and spelling disability. By early identification and intervention (optimally before school entry, detrimental effects of these cognitive deficits on reading and spelling might be prevented. The goal of the CASPAR-project is to develop and evaluate web-based tools for diagnosis and therapy of cognitive prerequisites for reading and spelling, which are appropriate for kindergarten children. In the first approach CASPAR addresses auditory processing disorders. This article describes a computerized and web-based approach for screening and testing phoneme discrimination and for promoting phoneme discrimination abilities through interactive games in kindergarteners.

Risk factors for HIV and STI diagnosis in a community-based HIV/STI testing and counselling site for men having sex with men (MSM) in a large German city in 2011-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Marcus, Ulrich; Ort, Jasmin; Grenz, Marc; Eckstein, Kai; Wirtz, Karin; Wille, Andreas

2015-01-13

In recent years community-based voluntary counselling and testing sites (CB-VCT) for men having sex with men (MSM) have been established in larger cities in Germany to offer more opportunities for HIV testing. Increasingly, CB-VCTs also offer testing for other bacterial sexually transmitted infections. In Hamburg, tests in CB-VCTs are offered free and anonymously. Data on demographics and sexual risk behaviours are collected with a paper questionnaire. Questionnaire data from the MSM CB-VCT in Hamburg were linked with serological test results for HIV and syphilis, and with rectal and pharyngeal swab results for gonorrhoea and chlamydia. MSM were defined as males reporting male sex partners. CB-VCT clients were characterized demographically, and associations between sexual behaviour variables and diagnosis of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STI) were analysed by bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among the male clients of the CB-VCT in 2011-2012 who were tested for HIV or any STI 1476 reported male sex partners. Unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) was reported as reason for testing by 61% of the clients. Forty-one of 1413 clients testing for HIV were tested positive (2.9%). Twenty-four of 1380 clients testing for syphilis required treatment (1.7%). Tests for simultaneous detection of N. gonorrhoea and Chlamydia trachomatis were conducted on 882 pharyngeal and 642 rectal swabs, revealing 58 (=6.6%) pharyngeal and 71 (=11.1%) rectal infections with one or both pathogens. In multivariate logistic regression analysis number of partners, UAI (OR=2.42) and relying on visual impression when selecting sex partners (OR = 2.92) were associated with increased risks for diagnosis of syphilis or a rectal STI. Syphilis or rectal STI diagnosis (OR=4.52) were associated with increased risk for HIV diagnosis. The MSM CB-VCT in Hamburg reaches clients at high risk for HIV and STIs. The diagnosis of syphilis or a rectal STI was associated with increased

Birth dimensions and risk of depression in adulthood

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osler, Merete; Nordentoft, Merete; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo

2005-01-01

of depression. RESULTS: A total of 190 men, corresponding to 1.8% of the cohort, had a discharge diagnosis of depression. The Cox's regression analyses failed to show any association between birth dimensions (birth weight and ponderal index) and risk of psychiatric ward diagnosis of depression in adult life......, before or after adjustment for social indicators at birth. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not support the existence of a relation between birth dimensions and psychiatric ward admission for depression in adult men.......BACKGROUND: Two British cohort studies have reported birth weight to be associated with self-reported depression in adulthood, even after adjustment for socio-economic factors. AIMS: To examine the relationship between birth dimensions and discharge from a psychiatric ward with a depression...

Chronic disease health risk behaviours amongst people with a mental illness.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlem, Kate M; Bowman, Jennifer A; Bailey, Jacqueline M; Freund, Megan; Wye, Paula M; Lecathelinais, Christophe; McElwaine, Kathleen M; Campbell, Elizabeth M; Gillham, Karen E; Wiggers, John H

2015-08-01

Amongst people with a mental illness, modifiable health risk behaviours contribute substantially to increased chronic disease morbidity and mortality. This study examined the prevalence of and interest in changing such behaviours amongst community mental health service clients in Australia. A telephone interview was undertaken with Australian community mental health service clients. Participants reported engagement in four health risk behaviours: tobacco smoking, fruit and vegetable consumption, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. Participants were classified as at risk based upon Australian national guidelines. At-risk participants were asked whether they were considering improving their health risk behaviour within the next month. The association between psychiatric diagnosis and risk, and interest in improving health risk behaviours was examined. Risk prevalence was highest for inadequate vegetable consumption (78.3%), followed by inadequate fruit consumption (60%), smoking (50.7%), physical inactivity (46.8%), short-term alcohol risk (40.3%) and chronic alcohol risk (35.3%). A majority of at-risk participants were considering improving their health risk behaviour for smoking, physical inactivity and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption (65.1%, 71.1%, and 53.3%, respectively). After adjusting for demographic factors, no diagnostic categories were associated with risk for any behaviour. Those with a diagnosis of depression were more likely to be interested in quitting smoking and increasing physical activity. Regardless of diagnosis, a high prevalence of chronic disease health risk behaviours was identified, with many participants expressing an interest in improving these behaviours. Such findings reinforce recommendations that preventive care addressing the chronic disease risks of clients be provided routinely by mental health clinicians. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000693729. URL: www.anzctr.org.au/. © The

An evidence based approach for diagnosis of adolescent polycystic ovarian syndrome

OpenAIRE

Aboubakr Elnashar

2016-01-01

The overlap between normal pubertal development and characteristic features of PCOS may confound an accurate diagnosis of PCOS among adolescent girls. Other disorders associated with irregular menses or hyperandrogenism need to be excluded from diagnostic consideration. Even in the absence of a definitive diagnosis and the lack of an approved therapy for PCOS in adolescence, treatment options that both alleviate the current symptoms and decrease the risk for subsequent associated comorbiditie...

Hydra: A web-based system for cardiovascular analysis, diagnosis and treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Novo, J; Hermida, A; Ortega, M; Barreira, N; Penedo, M G; López, J E; Calvo, C

2017-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is a highly complex process involving an extensive set of clinical trials to support the clinical decision-making process. There are many clinical conditions (e.g. diabetes, obesity, stress, etc.) that can lead to the early diagnosis or establishment of cardiovascular disease. In order to determine all these clinical conditions, a complete set of clinical patient analyses is typically performed, including a physical examination, blood analysis, electrocardiogram, blood pressure (BP) analysis, etc. This article presents a web-based system, called Hydra, which integrates a full and detailed set of services and functionalities for clinical decision support in order to help and improve the work of clinicians in cardiovascular patient diagnosis, risk assessment, treatment and monitoring over time. Hydra integrates a number of different services: a service for inputting all the information gathered by specialists (physical examination, habits, BP, blood analysis, electrocardiogram, etc.); a tool to automatically determine the CV risk stratification, including well-known standard risk stratification tables; and, finally, various tools to incorporate, analyze and graphically present the records of the ambulatory BP monitoring that provides BP analysis over a given period of time (24 or 48 hours). In addition, the platform presents a set of reports derived from all the information gathered from the patient in order to support physicians in their clinical decisions. Hydra was tested and validated in a real domain. In particular, internal medicine specialists at the Hypertension Unit of the Santiago de Compostela University Hospital (CHUS) validated the platform and used it in different clinical studies to demonstrate its utility. It was observed that the platform increased productivity and accuracy in the assessment of patient data yielding a cost reduction in clinical practice. This paper proposes a complete platform that includes

Clinical diagnosis of gestational diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Edmond A

2013-12-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) diagnosis remains controversial. ACOG criteria are based on the long-term risk of maternal diabetes. ADA recently suggested diagnosing GDM with 1 elevated value on an oral glucose tolerance test based on a 1.75-fold risk of large-for-gestational age infants resulting in a 17.8% rate of GDM. Given the lack of neonatal-based outcomes for the traditional position and problems of reproducibility and benefit/harm balance of the ADA approach, an alternative is presented herein based on a 2-fold risk of a large-for-gestational age baby, requiring 2 separate abnormalities to reduce false positives giving a more balanced benefit/harm ratio (10% GDM rate).

Flexible Multi-Objective Transmission Expansion Planning with Adjustable Risk Aversion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Qiu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-objective transmission expansion planning (TEP framework. Rather than using the conventional deterministic reliability criterion, a risk component based on the probabilistic reliability criterion is incorporated into the TEP objectives. This risk component can capture the stochastic nature of power systems, such as load and wind power output variations, component availability, and incentive-based demand response (IBDR costs. Specifically, the formulation of risk value after risk aversion is explicitly given, and it aims to provide network planners with the flexibility to conduct risk analysis. Thus, a final expansion plan can be selected according to individual risk preferences. Moreover, the economic value of IBDR is modeled and integrated into the cost objective. In addition, a relatively new multi-objective evolutionary algorithm called the MOEA/D is introduced and employed to find Pareto optimal solutions, and tradeoffs between overall cost and risk are provided. The proposed approach is numerically verified on the Garver’s six-bus, IEEE 24-bus RTS and Polish 2383-bus systems. Case study results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively reduce cost and hedge risk in relation to increasing wind power integration.

Decision tree and PCA-based fault diagnosis of rotating machinery

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Weixiang; Chen, Jin; Li, Jiaqing

2007-04-01

After analysing the flaws of conventional fault diagnosis methods, data mining technology is introduced to fault diagnosis field, and a new method based on C4.5 decision tree and principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed. In this method, PCA is used to reduce features after data collection, preprocessing and feature extraction. Then, C4.5 is trained by using the samples to generate a decision tree model with diagnosis knowledge. At last the tree model is used to make diagnosis analysis. To validate the method proposed, six kinds of running states (normal or without any defect, unbalance, rotor radial rub, oil whirl, shaft crack and a simultaneous state of unbalance and radial rub), are simulated on Bently Rotor Kit RK4 to test C4.5 and PCA-based method and back-propagation neural network (BPNN). The result shows that C4.5 and PCA-based diagnosis method has higher accuracy and needs less training time than BPNN.

FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

1999-01-01

The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

Size-Adjustable Microdroplets Generation Based on Microinjection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shibao Li

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Microinjection is a promising tool for microdroplet generation, while the microinjection for microdroplets generation still remains a challenging issue due to the Laplace pressure at the micropipette opening. Here, we apply a simple and robust substrate-contacting microinjection method to microdroplet generation, presenting a size-adjustable microdroplets generation method based on a critical injection (CI model. Firstly, the micropipette is adjusted to a preset injection pressure. Secondly, the micropipette is moved down to contact the substrate, then, the Laplace pressure in the droplet is no longer relevant and the liquid flows out in time. The liquid constantly flows out until the micropipette is lifted, ending the substrate-contacting situation, which results in the recovery of the Laplace pressure at the micropipette opening, and the liquid injection is terminated. We carry out five groups of experiments whereupon 1600 images are captured within each group and the microdroplet radius of each image is detected. Then we determine the relationship among microdroplet radius, radius at the micropipette opening, time, and pressure, and, two more experiments are conducted to verify the relationship. To verify the effectiveness of the substrate-contacting method and the relationship, we conducted two experiments with six desired microdroplet radii are set in each experiment, by adjusting the injection time with a given pressure, and adjusting the injection pressure with a given time. Then, six arrays of microdroplets are obtained in each experiment. The results of the experiments show that the standard errors of the microdroplet radii are less than 2% and the experimental errors fall in the range of ±5%. The average operating speed is 20 microdroplets/min and the minimum radius of the microdroplets is 25 μm. This method has a simple experimental setup that enables easy manipulation and lower cost.

Community-based stillbirth rates and risk factors in rural Sarlahi, Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Anne C; Mullany, Luke C; Tielsch, James M; Katz, Joanne; Khatry, Subarna K; Leclerq, Steven C; Adhikari, Ramesh K; Darmstadt, Gary L

2011-06-01

To assess stillbirth rates and antepartum risk factors in rural Nepal. Data were collected prospectively during a cluster-randomized, community-based trial in Sarlahi, Nepal, from 2002 to 2006. Multivariate regression modeling was performed to calculate adjusted relative risk estimates. Among 24531 births, the stillbirth rate was 35.4 per 1000 births (term stillbirth rate 21.2 per 1000 births). Most births occurred at home without a skilled birth attendant. The majority (69%) of intrapartum maternal deaths resulted in stillbirth. The adjusted RR (aRR) of stillbirth was 2.74 among nulliparas and 1.47 among mothers with history of a child death. Mothers above the age of 30 years carried a 1.59-fold higher risk for stillbirth than mothers who were 20-24 years old. The stillbirth risk was lower among households where the father had any formal education (aRR 0.70). Land ownership (aRR 0.85) and Pahadi ethnicity (aRR 0.67; reference: Madhesi ethnicity) were associated with significantly lower risks of stillbirth. Stillbirth rates were high in rural Nepal, with the majority of stillbirths occurring at full-term gestation. Nulliparity, history of prior child loss, maternal age above 30 years, Madhesi ethnicity, and socioeconomic disadvantage were significant risk factors for stillbirth. Clinicaltrials.govNCT00 109616. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Balancing the risks and benefits of drinking water disinfection: disability adjusted life-years on the scale.

OpenAIRE

Havelaar, A H; De Hollander, A E; Teunis, P F; Evers, E G; Van Kranen, H J; Versteegh, J F; Van Koten, J E; Slob, W

2000-01-01

To evaluate the applicability of disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) as a measure to compare positive and negative health effects of drinking water disinfection, we conducted a case study involving a hypothetical drinking water supply from surface water. This drinking water supply is typical in The Netherlands. We compared the reduction of the risk of infection with Cryptosporidium parvum by ozonation of water to the concomitant increase in risk of renal cell cancer arising from the produc...

Lifestyle factors, medication use and risk for ischaemic heart disease hospitalisation: a longitudinal population-based study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony S Gunnell

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Lifestyle factors have been implicated in ischaemic heart disease (IHD development however a limited number of longitudinal studies report results stratified by cardio-protective medication use. PURPOSE: This study investigated the influence of self-reported lifestyle factors on hospitalisation for IHD, stratified by blood pressure and/or lipid-lowering therapy. METHODS: A population-based cohort of 14,890 participants aged 45+ years and IHD-free was identified from the Western Australian Health and wellbeing Surveillance System (2004 to 2010 inclusive, and linked with hospital administrative data. Adjusted hazard ratios for future IHD-hospitalisation were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Current smokers remained at higher risk for IHD-hospitalisation (adjusted HR=1.57; 95% CI: 1.22-2.03 after adjustment for medication use, as did those considered overweight (BMI=25-29 kg/m(2; adjusted HR=1.28; 95% CI: 1.04-1.57 or obese (BMI of ≥30 kg/m(2; adjusted HR=1.31; 95% CI: 1.03-1.66. Weekly leisure-time physical activity (LTPA of 150 minutes or more and daily intake of 3 or more fruit/vegetable servings reduced risk by 21% (95% CI: 0.64-0.97 and 26% (95% CI: 0.58-0.96 respectively. Benefits of LTPA appeared greatest in those on blood pressure lowering medication (adjusted HR=0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.82 [for LTPA=150 mins]. IHD risk in smokers was most pronounced in those taking neither medication (adjusted HR=2.00; 95% CI: 1.41-2.83. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the contribution of previously reported lifestyle factors towards IHD hospitalisation, even after adjustment for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication use. Medication stratified results suggest that IHD risks related to LTPA and smoking may differ according to medication use.

[A brief of gestational diabetes mellitus, risk factors and current criteria of diagnosis].

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Aissa, Zahra; Hadarits, Orsolya; Rosta, Klára; Zóka, András; Rigó, János; Firneisz, Gábor; Somogyi, Anikó

2017-02-01

Diabetes is one of the most common metabolic disorders that may cause pathological pregnancy. Treating diabetes recognized during pregnancy results in lowering maternal and fetal complications. These patients present higher risk for excessive weight gain, preeclampsia, delivery with cesarean sections, high risk of developing type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in the future. Fetuses of mothers with gestational diabetes are at higher risk for macrosomia and birth trauma, after delivery they present higher risk of developing neonatal hypoglycemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and respiratory distress syndrome. There is still no consensus in the recommendations for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus by expert committees. Orv. Hetil., 2017, 158(8), 283-290.

Effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in reducing the risk of death from right and left colon cancer: a large community-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Doubeni, Chyke A; Corley, Douglas A; Quinn, Virginia P; Jensen, Christopher D; Zauber, Ann G; Goodman, Michael; Johnson, Jill R; Mehta, Shivan J; Becerra, Tracy A; Zhao, Wei K; Schottinger, Joanne; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Levin, Theodore R; Weiss, Noel S; Fletcher, Robert H

2018-02-01

Screening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing colorectal cancer mortality risk in community populations is unclear, particularly for right-colon cancers, leading to recommendations against its use for screening in some countries. This study aimed to determine whether, among average-risk people, receipt of screening colonoscopy reduces the risk of dying from both right-colon and left-colon/rectal cancers. We conducted a nested case-control study with incidence-density matching in screening-eligible Kaiser Permanente members. Patients who were 55-90 years old on their colorectal cancer death date during 2006-2012 were matched on diagnosis (reference) date to controls on age, sex, health plan enrolment duration and geographical region. We excluded patients at increased colorectal cancer risk, or with prior colorectal cancer diagnosis or colectomy. The association between screening colonoscopy receipt in the 10-year period before the reference date and colorectal cancer death risk was evaluated while accounting for other screening exposures. We analysed 1747 patients who died from colorectal cancer and 3460 colorectal cancer-free controls. Compared with no endoscopic screening, receipt of a screening colonoscopy was associated with a 67% reduction in the risk of death from any colorectal cancer (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.33, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.52). By cancer location, screening colonoscopy was associated with a 65% reduction in risk of death for right-colon cancers (aOR=0.35, CI 0.18 to 0.65) and a 75% reduction for left-colon/rectal cancers (aOR=0.25, CI 0.12 to 0.53). Screening colonoscopy was associated with a substantial and comparably decreased mortality risk for both right-sided and left-sided cancers within a large community-based population. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Maternal Thyroid Dysfunction and Risk of Seizure in the Child: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stine Linding Andersen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Thyroid hormones are essential for brain development, and maternal thyroid disease may affect child neurocognitive development. Some types of seizures may also depend upon early exposure of the developing central nervous system, and we hypothesized that maternal thyroid dysfunction could increase the risk of seizure in the child. In a Danish population-based study we included 1,699,693 liveborn singletons, and from the Danish National Hospital Register we obtained information on maternal diagnosis of hyper- or hypothyroidism and neonatal seizure, febrile seizure, and epilepsy in the child. Maternal diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction before or after birth of the child was registered in two percent of the singleton births. In adjusted analyses, maternal hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism first time diagnosed after birth of the child were associated with a significant increased risk of epilepsy in the child. Moreover, hypothyroidism diagnosed after birth of the child was associated with a significant increased risk of neonatal and febrile seizures. No significant association was seen for maternal diagnosis prior to birth of the child. We speculate if some degree of maternal thyroid dysfunction was already present during the pregnancy in mothers diagnosed after birth of the child and if this untreated condition may present a neurodevelopmental risk.

Maternal thyroid dysfunction and risk of seizure in the child: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Stine Linding; Laurberg, Peter; Wu, Chun Sen; Olsen, Jørn

2013-01-01

Thyroid hormones are essential for brain development, and maternal thyroid disease may affect child neurocognitive development. Some types of seizures may also depend upon early exposure of the developing central nervous system, and we hypothesized that maternal thyroid dysfunction could increase the risk of seizure in the child. In a Danish population-based study we included 1,699,693 liveborn singletons, and from the Danish National Hospital Register we obtained information on maternal diagnosis of hyper- or hypothyroidism and neonatal seizure, febrile seizure, and epilepsy in the child. Maternal diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction before or after birth of the child was registered in two percent of the singleton births. In adjusted analyses, maternal hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism first time diagnosed after birth of the child were associated with a significant increased risk of epilepsy in the child. Moreover, hypothyroidism diagnosed after birth of the child was associated with a significant increased risk of neonatal and febrile seizures. No significant association was seen for maternal diagnosis prior to birth of the child. We speculate if some degree of maternal thyroid dysfunction was already present during the pregnancy in mothers diagnosed after birth of the child and if this untreated condition may present a neurodevelopmental risk.

Risk of anxiety and depressive disorders in patients with myocardial infarction

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Hsin-Pei; Chien, Wu-Chien; Cheng, Wei-Tung; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Cheng, Shu-Meng; Tzeng, Wen-Chii

2016-01-01

Abstract Anxiety and depressive symptoms are associated with adverse cardiovascular events after an acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, most studies focusing on anxiety or depression have used rating scales or self-report methods rather than clinical diagnosis. This study aimed to investigate the association between psychiatrist-diagnosed psychiatric disorders and cardiovascular prognosis. We sampled data from the National Health Insurance Research Database; 1396 patients with MI were recruited as the study cohort and 13,960 patients without MI were recruited as the comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the effect of MI on the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders. During the first 2 years of follow-up, patients with MI exhibited a significantly higher risk of anxiety disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 5.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.61–5.54) and depressive disorders (adjusted HR = 7.23, 95% CI: 4.88–10.88) than those without MI did. Greater risk for anxiety and depressive disorders was observed among women and patients aged 45 to 64 years following an acute MI. Patients with post-MI anxiety had a 9.37-fold (95% CI: 4.45–19.70) higher risk of recurrent MI than those without MI did after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities. This nationwide population-based cohort study provides evidence that MI increases the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders during the first 2 years post-MI, and post-MI anxiety disorders are associated with a higher risk of recurrent MI. PMID:27559951

Approximation Algorithms for Model-Based Diagnosis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feldman, A.B.

2010-01-01

Model-based diagnosis is an area of abductive inference that uses a system model, together with observations about system behavior, to isolate sets of faulty components (diagnoses) that explain the observed behavior, according to some minimality criterion. This thesis presents greedy approximation

AUTOMATIC ADJUSTMENT OF WIDE-BASE GOOGLE STREET VIEW PANORAMAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Boussias-Alexakis

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on the issue of sparse matching in cases of extremely wide-base panoramic images such as those acquired by Google Street View in narrow urban streets. In order to effectively use affine point operators for bundle adjustment, panoramas must be suitably rectified to simulate affinity. To this end, a custom piecewise planar projection (triangular prism projection is applied. On the assumption that the image baselines run parallel to the street façades, the estimated locations of the vanishing lines of the façade plane allow effectively removing projectivity and applying the ASIFT point operator on panorama pairs. Results from comparisons with multi-panorama adjustment, based on manually measured image points, and ground truth indicate that such an approach, if further elaborated, may well provide a realistic answer to the matching problem in the case of demanding panorama configurations.

Disparities in cancer stage at diagnosis and survival of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal South Australians.

Science.gov (United States)

Banham, David; Roder, David; Keefe, Dorothy; Farshid, Gelareh; Eckert, Marion; Cargo, Margaret; Brown, Alex

2017-06-01

This study tested the utility of retrospectively staging cancer registry data for comparing stage and stage-specific survivals of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people. Differences by area level factors were also explored. This test dataset comprised 950 Aboriginal cases and all other cases recorded on the South Australian cancer registry with a 1977-2010 diagnosis. A sub-set of 777 Aboriginal cases diagnosed in 1990-2010 were matched with randomly selected non-Aboriginal cases by year of birth, diagnostic year, sex, and primary site of cancer. Competing risk regression summarised associations of Aboriginal status, stage, and geographic attributes with risk of cancer death. Aboriginal cases were 10 years younger at diagnosis, more likely to present in recent diagnostic years, to be resident of remote areas, and have primary cancer sites of head & neck, lung, liver and cervix. Risk of cancer death was associated in the matched analysis with more advanced stage at diagnosis. More Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal cases had distant metastases at diagnosis (31.3% vs 22.0, pAboriginal residents had higher risks of cancer death than Aboriginal residents of metropolitan areas. Non-Aboriginal cases had the lowest risk of cancer death. Retrospective staging proved to be feasible using registry data. Results indicated more advanced stages for Aboriginal than matched non-Aboriginal cases. Aboriginal people had higher risks of cancer death, which persisted after adjusting for stage, and applied irrespective of remoteness of residence, with highest risk of death occurring among Aboriginal people from remote areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased risk of ischemic stroke in young patients with ankylosing spondylitis: a population-based longitudinal follow-up study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Wei Lin

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prospective data on the association between ischemic stroke and ankylosing spondylitis (AS in the young are sparse. The purpose of this population-based, age- and sex-matched longitudinal follow-up study was to investigate the risk of developing ischemic stroke in young patients with AS. METHODS: A total of 4562 patients aged 18- to 45-year-old with at least two ambulatory visits in 2001 with a principal diagnosis of AS were enrolled in the AS group. The non-AS group consisted of 22810 age- and sex-matched, randomly sampled subjects without AS. The two-year ischemic stroke-free survival rate for each group were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratio of ischemic stroke after adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. RESULTS: During follow-up, 21 patients in the AS group and 53 in the non-AS group developed ischemic stroke. The ischemic stroke-free survival rate over the 2 year follow-up was lower in the AS group than the non-AS group (p = 0.0021. The crude hazard ratio of ischemic stroke for the AS group was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.20-3.29; p = 0.0079 and the adjusted hazard ratio after controlling for demographic and comorbid medical disorders was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.16-3.20; p = 0.0110. CONCLUSION: Our study showed an increased risk of developing ischemic stroke in young patients with AS.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease and risk for bipolar disorder: a nationwide population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Wan-Shan; Hu, Li-Yu; Liu, Chia-Jen; Hsu, Chih-Chao; Shen, Cheng-Che; Wang, Yen-Po; Hu, Yu-Wen; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Chen, Pan-Ming; Su, Tung-Ping; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lu, Ti

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that chronic inflammation may play a vital role in the pathophysiology of both gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and bipolar disorder. Among patients with GERD, the risk of bipolar disorder has not been well characterized. We explored the relationship between GERD and the subsequent development of bipolar disorder, and examined the risk factors for bipolar disorder in patients with GERD. We identified patients who were diagnosed with GERD in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort without GERD was matched according to age, sex, and comorbidities. The occurrence of bipolar disorder was evaluated in both cohorts based on diagnosis and the prescription of medications. The GERD cohort consisted of 21,674 patients, and the comparison cohort consisted of 21,674 matched control patients without GERD. The incidence of bipolar disorder (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-3.36, Pdisorder (HR 4.89, 95% CI 3.06-7.84, P = .004) were independent risk factors for the development of bipolar disorder among GERD patients. GERD may increase the risk of developing bipolar disorder. Based on our data, we suggest that attention should be focused on female patients younger than 60 years, and patients with alcohol use disorder, following a GERD diagnosis.

FINANCIAL DIAGNOSIS OF A COMPANY’S ACTIVITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUCIU GHEORGHE

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Financial diagnosis consists of a number of instruments and methods which help to evaluate a company’s financial situation and performances. The financial diagnosis identifies the favourable and unfavourable factors which will affect the company’s future activity. The purpose of financial diagnosis is to draw a comparison with similar companies, in order to establish risk, profitability, and value parameters, by estimating the cost of capital (discount rate. The financial diagnosis helps to appreciate the past and present financial situation, and based on them to make projections for the future.

The effect of breast cancer on personal income three years after diagnosis by cancer stage and education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ingelise; Kolodziejczyk, Christophe; Thielen, Karsten

2015-01-01

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there is an association between stage of incident breast cancer (BC) and personal income three years after diagnosis. The analysis further considered whether the association differed among educational groups. Methods: The study...... was based on information from Danish nationwide registers. A total of 7,372 women aged 30¿60 years diagnosed with BC, 48% with metastasis, were compared to 213,276 controls. Generalised linear models were used to estimate the effect of a cancer diagnosis on personal gross income three years after diagnosis......, stratified by education and stage of cancer. The models were adjusted for income two years prior to cancer diagnosis and demographic, geographic and co-morbidity covariates. Results: Adjusting for income two years prior to cancer diagnosis and other baseline covariates (see above), cancer had a minor effect...

An Event-Based Approach to Distributed Diagnosis of Continuous Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhurry, Indranil; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon

2010-01-01

Distributed fault diagnosis solutions are becoming necessary due to the complexity of modern engineering systems, and the advent of smart sensors and computing elements. This paper presents a novel event-based approach for distributed diagnosis of abrupt parametric faults in continuous systems, based on a qualitative abstraction of measurement deviations from the nominal behavior. We systematically derive dynamic fault signatures expressed as event-based fault models. We develop a distributed diagnoser design algorithm that uses these models for designing local event-based diagnosers based on global diagnosability analysis. The local diagnosers each generate globally correct diagnosis results locally, without a centralized coordinator, and by communicating a minimal number of measurements between themselves. The proposed approach is applied to a multi-tank system, and results demonstrate a marked improvement in scalability compared to a centralized approach.

Association between adult otitis media and nasopharyngeal cancer: A nationwide population-based cohort study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Wen-Yen; Lin, Che-Chen; Jen, Yee-Min; Lin, Kuen-Tze; Yang, Muh-Hwa; Chen, Chang-Ming; Chang, Ying-Nan; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2012-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether the diagnosis of otitis media (OM) in adults is associated with an increased risk for the subsequent development of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) using a nationwide population-based retrospective study. Methods and materials: We selected 13,513 adult patients that had been previously diagnosed with OM between 2000 and 2005 from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 as the study cohort, and randomly extracted the data of 135,130 participants matched by sex, age, and baseline year for the comparison cohort. The follow-up period was terminated upon developing NPC, withdrawal from the national health insurance system, or the end of 2009. Cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HRs) of NPC development were determined. Results: The subsequent NPC incidence rates in the OM and comparison cohorts were 6.41 and 0.58 per 10 000 person-years, respectively (adjusted HR, 11.04; 95% CI, 7.68–5.87; P < 0.0001). The NPC risk for males was significantly higher than that for females (adjusted HR = 3.24; 95% CI, 2.16–4.85). In both female and male patients, the diagnosis of OM was associated with a significantly increased risk for NPC (adjusted HR, 11.91 vs. 10.78, respectively). Among the OM cohort, 62 participants were subsequently diagnosed with NPC, with 71% of them occurring within 1 year following the diagnosis of OM. However, even after 5-year follow-up, the OM cohort still displayed a higher risk for NPC (adjusted HR = 2.50). Stratified by the frequency of OM episodes, more than one episode per year had a significantly greater risk of developing NPC, compared with the comparison cohort (HR = 29.22; 95% CI, 20.19–42.27). Conclusion: We found that adult OM is a warning sign for the development of NPC in Taiwan, with approximately an 11-fold higher risk for adult OM patients. We recommend that OM patients undergo follow-up examinations for at least 5 years. To extrapolate our findings, further studies are warranted in other

Prolonged job strain and subsequent risk of cancer in women–a longitudinal study, based on the Danish Nurse Cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesterlund, Gitte K.; Høeg, Beverley L.; Johansen, Christoffer

2017-01-01

Background: The role of psychological stress in cancer risk is continuously debated. Stress at work is the most common form of stress and previous studies have shown inconsistent results regarding cancer risk. In this longitudinal study, we examined the association between prolonged job strain......-related, digestive and lung cancers according to level of prolonged job strain. The women were followed from 1 January 2000 until cancer diagnosis, emigration, death or 31 December 2013 (mean follow-up 13 years) and models were adjusted for potential confounders. Effect modification was examined according to working...... nightshifts and full time. Results: No significant differences in the risk of overall cancer or any of the cancer subgroups were identified in relation to prolonged busyness, speed, influence, or overall job strain. Effect modification by working full time was observed when examining job influence in relation...

Reduced Risk of Barrett's Esophagus in Statin Users: Case-Control Study and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Beales, Ian L P; Dearman, Leanne; Vardi, Inna; Loke, Yoon

2016-01-01

Use of statins has been associated with a reduced incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in population-based studies. However there are few studies examining statin use and the development of Barrett's esophagus. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between statin use and the presence of Barrett's esophagus in patients having their first gastroscopy. We have performed a case-control study comparing statin use between patients with, and without, an incident diagnosis of non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus. Male Barrett's cases (134) were compared to 268 male age-matched controls in each of two control groups (erosive gastro-esophageal reflux and dyspepsia without significant upper gastrointestinal disease). Risk factor and drug exposure were established using standardised interviews. Logistic regression was used to compare statin exposure and correct for confounding factors. We performed a meta-analysis pooling our results with three other case-control studies. Regular statin use was associated with a significantly lower incidence of Barrett's esophagus compared to the combined control groups [adjusted OR 0.62 (95 % confidence intervals 0.37-0.93)]. This effect was more marked in combined statin plus aspirin users [adjusted OR 0.43 (95 % CI 0.21-0.89)]. The inverse association between statin or statin plus aspirin use and risk of Barrett's was significantly greater with longer duration of use. Meta-analysis of pooled data (1098 Barrett's, 2085 controls) showed that statin use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of Barrett's esophagus [pooled adjusted OR 0.63 (95 % CI 0.51-0.77)]. Statin use is associated with a reduced incidence of a new diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus.

Splenectomy and increased subsequent cancer risk: a nationwide population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Chen, Hsuan-Ju; Jeng, Long-Bin; Li, Tsai-Chung; Wu, Shih-Chi; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-08-01

Splenectomy has been suggested to have an impact on immunological function, and subsequent development of cancer has been recognized as a possible adverse effect of splenectomy. This study evaluated the possible association between splenectomy and malignancy in Taiwan. A cohort study consisted of including 2,603 patients with nontraumatic and 2,295 patients with traumatic splenectomy, and then randomly frequency matched with 4 participants without splenectomy. The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted to estimate the influence of splenectomy on cancer risk. Both nontraumatic and traumatic splenectomy had a significantly higher risk for overall cancer development (adjusted hazard ratios are 2.64 and 1.29 for nontraumatic and traumatic reasons, respectively). After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, patients with splenectomy were associated with significantly higher risks for developing certain gastrointestinal tract cancers, other head and neck cancers, and hematological malignancies, and the phenomenon is more prominent in nontraumatic splenectomy group. This nationwide population-based study found that people with splenectomy have higher risks of developing overall cancer, as well as certain site-specific cancers, especially for patients with nontraumatic reasons. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of cardiovascular events in people prescribed glucocorticoids with iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome: cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fardet, Laurence; Petersen, Irene; Nazareth, Irwin

2012-07-30

To investigate whether there is an increased risk of cardiovascular events in people who exhibit iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome during treatment with glucocorticoids. Cohort study. 424 UK general practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network database. People prescribed systemic glucocorticoids and with a diagnosis of iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome (n = 547) and two comparison groups: those prescribed glucocorticoids and with no diagnosis of iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome (n = 3231) and those not prescribed systemic glucocorticoids (n = 3282). Incidence of cardiovascular events within a year after diagnosis of iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome or after a randomly selected date, and association between iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome and risk of cardiovascular events. 417 cardiovascular events occurred in 341 patients. Taking into account only the first event by patient (coronary heart disease n = 177, heart failure n = 101, ischaemic stroke n = 63), the incidence rates of cardiovascular events per 100 person years at risk were 15.1 (95% confidence interval 11.8 to 18.4) in those prescribed glucocorticoids and with a diagnosis of iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome, 6.4 (5.5 to 7.3) in those prescribed glucocorticoids without a diagnosis of iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome, and 4.1 (3.4 to 4.8) in those not prescribed glucocorticoids. In multivariate analyses adjusted for sex, age, intensity of glucocorticoid use, underlying disease, smoking status, and use of aspirin, diabetes drugs, antihypertensive drugs, lipid lowering drugs, or oral anticoagulant drugs, the relation between iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome and cardiovascular events was strong (adjusted hazard ratios 2.27 (95% confidence interval 1.48 to 3.47) for coronary heart disease, 3.77 (2.41 to 5.90) for heart failure, and 2.23 (0.96 to 5.17) for ischaemic cerebrovascular events). The adjusted hazard ratio for any cardiovascular event was 4.16 (2.98 to 5.82) when the group prescribed glucocorticoids and with

77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...-weighted assets for residential mortgages, securitization exposures, and counterparty credit risk. The.... Risk-Weighted Assets--Proposed Modifications to the Advanced Approaches Rules A. Counterparty Credit... Margin Period of Risk 3. Changes to the Internal Models Methodology (IMM) 4. Credit Valuation Adjustments...

Lung cancer among coal miners, ore miners and quarrymen : smoking-adjusted risk estimates from the synergy pooled analysis of case-control studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Taeger, Dirk; Pesch, Beate; Kendzia, Benjamin; Behrens, Thomas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Dahmann, Dirk; Siemiatycki, Jack; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel; Peters, Susan; Olsson, Ann; Brüske, Irene; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Stücker, Isabelle; Guida, Florence; Tardón, Adonina; Merletti, Franco; Mirabelli, Dario; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Pohlabeln, Hermann; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Landi, Maria Teresa; Caporaso, Neil; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Mukeriya, Anush; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Lissowska, Jolanta; Gustavsson, Per; Field, John; Marcus, Michael W; Fabianova, Eleonora; 't Mannetje, Andrea; Pearce, Neil; Rudnai, Peter; Bencko, Vladimir; Janout, Vladimir; Dumitru, Rodica Stanescu; Foretova, Lenka; Forastiere, Francesco; John McLaughlin, John McLaughlin; Paul Demers, Paul Demers; Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita; Joachim Schüz, Joachim Schüz; Kurt Straif, Kurt Straif; Brüning, Thomas

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Working in mines and quarries has been associated with an elevated lung cancer risk but with inconsistent results for coal miners. This study aimed to estimate the smoking-adjusted lung cancer risk among coal miners and compare the risk pattern with lung cancer risks among ore miners and

Sports injuries: population based representative data on incidence, diagnosis, sequelae, and high risk groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, S; Seither, B; Tönges, S; Schmitt, H

2006-04-01

To generate national representative data on the incidence, diagnosis, severity, and nature of medically treated sports injuries and to identify high risk groups. The first national health survey for the Federal Republic of Germany, conducted in the format of a standardised, written, cross sectional survey in the period October 1997 to March 1999, gathered data on the incidence of accident and injury and information on social demographics, injury related disability/time off work, and injury location/setting. The net sample comprised 7124 people aged 18-79. 3.1% of adult Germans said they sustained a sports injury during the previous year, corresponding to an annual injury rate of 5.6% among those engaging in regular recreational physical activity and ranking sports injuries as the second most common type of accident. About 62% of all sports injuries result in time taken off work. The period of occupational disability is 14 days or less in around two thirds of these cases. The occupational disability rate after occupational and traffic accidents is much higher by comparison. Dislocations, distortions, and/or torn ligaments make up 60% of all sports injuries, followed by fractures (18%), contusions, surface wounds, or open wounds (12%). Three out of four sports injury casualties are male. The incidence declines noticeably in higher age groups. Future injury prevention measures should focus on the high risk group of young male recreational athletes. The data indicate that the fear of damage to health and injury, believed to be significant internal psychological barriers to participation in sports, is largely unwarranted for the female population and/or older age groups. Sporting injuries are a marginal phenomenon among the female population and mobile seniors actively engaged in sports.

Cardiovascular risk factors, micro and macrovascular complications at diagnosis in patients with young onset type 2 diabetes in India: CINDI 2

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Bhavana Sosale

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Context: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in young adults is increasing in India. Data on the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV risk factors and complications associated with young-onset T2DM (YOD at the time of diagnosis of diabetes are limited. This data can aid in aggressive diabetes management, CV risk reduction, and prevention of complications. Aim: To determine the prevalence of CV risk factors, micro and macrovascular complications in patients with newly diagnosed YOD. To assess the percentage of patients who require statin therapy based on current American Diabetes Association (ADA guidelines. Settings and Design: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of 1500 patients with newly detected YOD across seven centers from 2013 to 2015. Designs and Methods: Patients were evaluated for complications of diabetes and CV risk factors such as body mass index (BMI, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and smoking. Statistical Analysis: Measurements have been presented as mean ± standard deviation; results on categorical measurements have been presented in percentages. Results: The mean age, glycated hemoglobin and BMI were 34.7 ± 4.2 years, 9.9 ± 2.4%, and 26.8 ± 4.7 kg/m2. Hypertension, dyslipidemia, BMI >23 kg/m2, and smoking were presented in 27.6%, 62.4%, 84.2%, and 24%. Diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy, and nephropathy were seen in 5.1%, 13.2%, and 0.9%. Ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and stroke were presented in 0.7%, 2%, and 0.1%. As per current guidelines, 95.33% needed statin therapy. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that patients with YOD have micro and macrovascular complications at diagnosis. Nearly, every patient required a statin to reduce CV risk. This highlights the importance of screening patients with YOD for CV risk factors and complications of diabetes at the time of diagnosis.

Risk factors for feelings of sadness and suicide attempts among cancer survivors in South Korea: findings from nationwide cross-sectional study (KNHANES IV-VI).

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jeewoong; Lee, Mijo; Ki, Myung; Lee, Ju-Yeong; Song, Yeong-Jun; Kim, Miram; Lee, Sunyoung; Park, Soonjoo; Lim, Jiseun

2017-12-14

As the number of cancer survivors is rapidly increasing with the increased incidence of the disease and improved survival of patients, the prevalence of, and risk factors for, mental health problems and suicidality among cancer survivors should be examined. Using data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2013), we examined 1285 and 33 772 participants who had been and never been diagnosed with cancer, respectively. We investigated the risks of feelings of sadness and suicide attempts among cancer survivors and general population and examined differences in the risks of cancer survivors among subgroups according to cancer-related characteristics. The median age of survivors at the time of the survey and at diagnosis was 63 and 54 years, respectively. After adjusting for sex, level of education, household income, occupation, marital status, cancer type, current status of treatment, age at diagnosis and years since diagnosis, the risk of suicide attempts was significantly higher in participants diagnosed with cancer before 45 years of age compared with those diagnosed at 45-64 years (adjusted OR=3.81, 95% CI 1.07 to 13.60, P=0.039), and the higher risk of suicide attempts with borderline significance was found in those for whom more than 10 years had passed since diagnosis compared with those for whom the diagnosis was made only 2-10 years ago (adjusted OR=3.38, 95% CI 0.98 to 11.70, P=0.055). However, feelings of sadness were not significantly associated with any cancer-related characteristic. Our results reveal an increased risk of suicide attempts among cancer survivors diagnosed early in life and in those for whom more than 10 years has passed since the diagnosis, suggesting the need for intensive monitoring and support for mental health problems and suicidal risks in this population. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial

FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

1999-11-14

The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

Alcohol consumption, physical activity, and chronic disease risk factors: a population-based cross-sectional survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Djoussé Luc

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Whether the association of alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease is the product of confounding and the degree to which this concern applies to other behaviors are unclear. Methods Using the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a population-based telephone survey of adults in the US, we compared chronic disease risk factors between 123,359 abstainers and 126,674 moderate drinkers, defined as intake of ≤ 2 drinks per day among men and ≤ 1 drink per day among women, using age- and sex- and multivariable-adjusted models. We also compared sedentary and active individuals, defined as moderate physical activity ≥ 30 minutes per day for ≥ 5 days per week, or vigorous activity for ≥ 20 minutes per day on ≥ 3 days. Results Chronic disease risk factors and features of unhealthy lifestyle were generally more prevalent among abstainers than drinkers in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, but these differences were generally attenuated or eliminated by additional adjustment for race and education. For low fruit and vegetable intake, divorced marital status, and absence of a personal physician, adjustment for race and education reversed initially positive age- and sex-adjusted associations with abstention. Comparison of sedentary and active individuals produced similar findings, with generally lower levels of risk factors among more physical active individuals. Conclusion The differences between abstainers and drinkers are attenuated after adjustment for limited sociodemographic features, and sedentary and active individuals share a similar pattern. Although observational studies of both factors may be susceptible to uncontrolled confounding, our results provide no evidence that moderate drinking is unique in this regard. Ultimately, randomized trials of all such lifestyle factors will be needed to answer these questions definitively.

Covariate-adjusted measures of discrimination for survival data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

White, Ian R; Rapsomaniki, Eleni; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth

2015-01-01

by the study design (e.g. age and sex) influence discrimination and can make it difficult to compare model discrimination between studies. Although covariate adjustment is a standard procedure for quantifying disease-risk factor associations, there are no covariate adjustment methods for discrimination...... statistics in censored survival data. OBJECTIVE: To develop extensions of the C-index and D-index that describe the prognostic ability of a model adjusted for one or more covariate(s). METHOD: We define a covariate-adjusted C-index and D-index for censored survival data, propose several estimators......, and investigate their performance in simulation studies and in data from a large individual participant data meta-analysis, the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. RESULTS: The proposed methods perform well in simulations. In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration data, the age-adjusted C-index and D-index were...

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Molecular diagnosis and immunotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sastre, Joaquín; Sastre-Ibañez, Marina

2016-12-01

To describe recent insights into how molecular diagnosis can improve indication and selection of suitable allergens for specific immunotherapy and increase the safety of this therapy. As specific allergen immunotherapy targets specific allergens, identification of the disease-eliciting allergen is a prerequisite for accurate prescription of treatment. In areas of complex sensitization to aeroallergens or in cases of hymenoptera venom allergy, the use of molecular diagnosis has demonstrated that it may lead to a change in indication and selection of allergens for immunotherapy in a large proportion of patients when compared with diagnosis based on skin prick testing and/or specific IgE determination with commercial extracts. These changes in immunotherapy prescription aided by molecular diagnosis have been demonstrated to be cost-effective in some scenarios. Certain patterns of sensitization to grass or olive pollen and bee allergens may identify patients with higher risk of adverse reaction during immunotherapy. Molecular diagnosis, when used with other tools and patients' clinical records, can help clinicians better to select the most appropriate patients and allergens for specific immunotherapy and, in some cases, predict the risk of adverse reactions. The pattern of sensitization to allergens could potentially predict the efficacy of allergen immunotherapy provided that these immunotherapy products contain a sufficient amount of these allergens. Nevertheless, multiplex assay remains a third-level approach, not to be used as screening method in current practice.

Prostate cancer risk profiles of Asian-American men: disentangling the effects of immigration status and race/ethnicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichtensztajn, Daphne Y; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Sieh, Weiva; Chung, Benjamin I; Cheng, Iona; Brooks, James D

2014-04-01

Asian-American men with prostate cancer have been reported to present with higher grade and later stage disease than white American men. However, Asian-American men comprise a heterogeneous population with distinct health outcomes. We compared prostate cancer risk profiles among the diverse racial and ethnic groups in California. We used data from the California Cancer Registry on 90,845 nonHispanic white, nonHispanic black and Asian-American men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 2004 and 2010. Patients were categorized into low, intermediate and high risk groups based on clinical stage, Gleason score and prostate specific antigen at diagnosis. Using polytomous logistic regression we estimated adjusted ORs for the association of race/ethnicity and nativity with risk group. In addition to the nonHispanic black population, 6 Asian-American groups (United States born Chinese, foreign born Chinese, United States born Japanese, foreign born Japanese, foreign born Filipino and foreign born Vietnamese) were more likely to have an unfavorable risk profile compared to nonHispanic white men. The OR for high vs intermediate risk disease ranged from 1.23 (95% CI 1.02-1.49) for United States born Japanese men to 1.45 (95% CI 1.31-1.60) for foreign born Filipino men. These associations appeared to be driven by higher grade and prostate specific antigen rather than by advanced clinical stage at diagnosis. In this large, ethnically diverse, population based cohort Asian-American men were more likely to have an unfavorable risk profile at diagnosis. This association varied by racial/ethnic group and nativity, and was not attributable to later stage at diagnosis. This suggests that Asian men may have biological differences that predispose to more severe disease. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Population-Based Cohort Study on Peripheral Arterial Disease in Patients with Schizophrenia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Yu Hsu

Full Text Available Peripheral arterial disease (PAD is considered the leading cause of atherosclerotic cardiovascular morbidity. Several risk factors of PAD have been observed in patients with schizophrenia. Therefore, we hypothesize that the incidence of PAD is higher in the schizophrenia population than in the general population.The patients in this population-based cohort study were selected from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of the claims data from 2000 to 2011. We compared the incidence of PAD between schizophrenia and nonschizophrenia cohorts. Cox proportional hazard regression models were employed for analyzing the risk of PAD after adjustment for sex, age, and comorbidities.The adjusted hazard ratio (HR for PAD in the schizophrenia cohort was 1.26-fold higher than that in the nonschizophrenia cohort. Furthermore, patients with schizophrenia using atypical antipsychotics exhibited a high adjusted HR for PAD.Compared with the general population, the risk of PAD is higher among patients with schizophrenia. Early diagnosis and intervention can mitigate complications resulting from cardiovascular diseases and lower mortality.

[Effects in the adherence treatment and psychological adjustment after the disclosure of HIV/AIDS diagnosis with the "DIRE" clinical model in Colombian children under 17].

Science.gov (United States)

Trejos, Ana María; Reyes, Lizeth; Bahamon, Marly Johana; Alarcón, Yolima; Gaviria, Gladys

2015-08-01

A study in five Colombian cities in 2006, confirms the findings of other international studies: the majority of HIV-positive children not know their diagnosis, caregivers are reluctant to give this information because they believe that the news will cause emotional distress to the child becoming primary purpose of this study to validate a model of revelation. We implemented a clinical model, referred to as: "DIRE" that hypothetically had normalizing effects on psychological adjustment and adherence to antiretroviral treatment of HIV seropositive children, using a quasi-experimental design. Test were administered (questionnaire to assess patterns of disclosure and non-disclosure of the diagnosis of VIH/SIDA on children in health professionals and participants caregivers, Family Apgar, EuroQol EQ- 5D, MOS Social Support Survey Questionnaire Information treatment for VIH/SIDA and child Symptom Checklist CBCL/6-18 adapted to Latinos) before and after implementation of the model to 31 children (n: 31), 30 caregivers (n: 30) and 41 health professionals. Data processing was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Science version 21 by applying parametric tests (Friedman) and nonparametric (t Student). No significant differences in adherence to treatment (p=0.392), in the psychological adjustment were found positive significant differences at follow-ups compared to baseline 2 weeks (p: 0.001), 3 months (p: 0.000) and 6 months (p: 0.000). The clinical model demonstrated effectiveness in normalizing of psychological adjustment and maintaining treatment compliance. The process also generated confidence in caregivers and health professionals in this difficult task.

Adjustment Criterion and Algorithm in Adjustment Model with Uncertain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SONG Yingchun

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty often exists in the process of obtaining measurement data, which affects the reliability of parameter estimation. This paper establishes a new adjustment model in which uncertainty is incorporated into the function model as a parameter. A new adjustment criterion and its iterative algorithm are given based on uncertainty propagation law in the residual error, in which the maximum possible uncertainty is minimized. This paper also analyzes, with examples, the different adjustment criteria and features of optimal solutions about the least-squares adjustment, the uncertainty adjustment and total least-squares adjustment. Existing error theory is extended with new observational data processing method about uncertainty.

A Risk-Based Interval Two-Stage Programming Model for Agricultural System Management under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye Xu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Nonpoint source (NPS pollution caused by agricultural activities is main reason that water quality in watershed becomes worse, even leading to deterioration. Moreover, pollution control is accompanied with revenue’s fall for agricultural system. How to design and generate a cost-effective and environmentally friendly agricultural production pattern is a critical issue for local managers. In this study, a risk-based interval two-stage programming model (RBITSP was developed. Compared to general ITSP model, significant contribution made by RBITSP model was that it emphasized importance of financial risk under various probabilistic levels, rather than only being concentrated on expected economic benefit, where risk is expressed as the probability of not meeting target profit under each individual scenario realization. This way effectively avoided solutions’ inaccuracy caused by traditional expected objective function and generated a variety of solutions through adjusting weight coefficients, which reflected trade-off between system economy and reliability. A case study of agricultural production management with the Tai Lake watershed was used to demonstrate superiority of proposed model. Obtained results could be a base for designing land-structure adjustment patterns and farmland retirement schemes and realizing balance of system benefit, system-failure risk, and water-body protection.

Case-mix adjustment approach to benchmarking prevalence rates of nosocomial infection in hospitals in Cyprus and Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Kritsotakis, Evangelos I; Dimitriadis, Ioannis; Roumbelaki, Maria; Vounou, Emelia; Kontou, Maria; Papakyriakou, Panikos; Koliou-Mazeri, Maria; Varthalitis, Ioannis; Vrouchos, George; Troulakis, George; Gikas, Achilleas

2008-08-01

To examine the effect of heterogeneous case mix for a benchmarking analysis and interhospital comparison of the prevalence rates of nosocomial infection. Cross-sectional survey. Eleven hospitals located in Cyprus and in the region of Crete in Greece. The survey included all inpatients in the medical, surgical, pediatric, and gynecology-obstetrics wards, as well as those in intensive care units. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria were used to define nosocomial infection. The information collected for all patients included demographic characteristics, primary admission diagnosis, Karnofsky functional status index, Charlson comorbidity index, McCabe-Jackson severity of illness classification, use of antibiotics, and prior exposures to medical and surgical risk factors. Outcome data were also recorded for all patients. Case mix-adjusted rates were calculated by using a multivariate logistic regression model for nosocomial infection risk and an indirect standardization method.Results. The overall prevalence rate of nosocomial infection was 7.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.9%-8.3%) among 1,832 screened patients. Significant variation in nosocomial infection rates was observed across hospitals (range, 2.2%-9.6%). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the mean predicted risk of nosocomial infection across hospitals ranged from 3.7% to 10.3%, suggesting considerable variation in patient risk. Case mix-adjusted rates ranged from 2.6% to 12.4%, and the relative ranking of hospitals was affected by case-mix adjustment in 8 cases (72.8%). Nosocomial infection was significantly and independently associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 3.6 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-6.1]). The first attempt to rank the risk of nosocomial infection in these regions demonstrated the importance of accounting for heterogeneous case mix before attempting interhospital comparisons.

Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Age-Adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to present)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS combined land line and cell phone age-adjusted prevalence data. The BRFSS is a continuous, state-based surveillance system that collects...