WorldWideScience

Sample records for developing global climate

  1. Development directions of the global climate protection law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Katharina

    2014-01-01

    The contribution on development directions of the global climate protection law covers the origination process of the Kyoto protocol, the precise form of the Kyoto protocol, the climate protection regime afterwards: Montreal 2005 - implementation-improvement-innovation, Nairobi 2006 - climatic change very close, Bali 2007 - roadmap, Posen 2008 - intermediate step, Copenhagen 2009 - stagnancy, Cancun 2010 - comeback, Durban 2011 - gleam of hope, Doha 2012 - minimum compromise, Warsaw 2013 - hope. The last chapter discusses the fundamental problems and perspectives of the climate protection laws.

  2. Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2015-11-01

    A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

  3. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  4. An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1995-01-01

    ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

  5. Global climate convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonis, U.E.

    1991-01-01

    The effort of negotiate a global convention on climate change is one of mankind's great endeavours - and a challenge to economists and development planners. The inherent linkages between climate and the habitability of the earth are increasingly well recognized, and a convention could help to ensure that conserving the environment and developing the economy in the future must go hand in hand. Due to growing environmental concern the United Nations General Assembly has set into motion an international negotiating process for a framework convention on climate change. One the major tasks in these negotiations is how to share the duties in reducing climate relevant gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), between the industrial and the developing countries. The results and proposals could be among the most far-reaching ever for socio-economic development, indeed for global security and survival itself. While the negotiations will be about climate and protection of the atmosphere, they will be on fundamental global changes in energy policies, forestry, transport, technology, and on development pathways with low greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these aspects of a climate convention, particularly the distributional options and consequences for the North-South relations, are addressed in this chapter. (orig.)

  6. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  7. Making climate change negotiable: The development of the Global Warming Potential index

    OpenAIRE

    Skodvin, Tora

    1999-01-01

    One important contribution from science to environmental negotiations is the provision of scientific models, methods and concepts that may serve as decision-making tools and that hence may assist policy-makers in developing adequate solutions to environmental problems. In the context of climate change, the Global Warming Potential index has served a significant role in the process of making climate change negotiable. The Global Warming Potential index, which is a methodology for comparing the...

  8. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  9. Simulating Global Climate Summits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

  10. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  11. Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Booster to Enable Sustainable Global Development and Beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhore, Subhash Janardhan

    2016-11-14

    The global warming and its adverse effects on the atmosphere, the biosphere, the lithosphere, and the hydrosphere are obvious. Based on this fact, the international community is fully convinced that we need to fix the problem urgently for our survival, good health, and wellbeing. The aim of this article is to promote the awareness about the United Nations (UN) historic 'Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC)' which entered into-force on 4 November 2016. The expected impact of PACC on the global average temperature rise by 2100 as well as its role in enabling accomplishment of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) for the people and planet is also highlighted.

  12. Climate Change, Global Warming and Global Inequity in Developed and Developing Countries (Analytical Perspective, Issue, Problem and Solution)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijaya, A. S.

    2014-03-01

    Climate change becomes one of the most significant challenges faced by most environmentalist all over the world. Every country either developed or developing one has the same need in climate change impact mitigation and adaptation. However, developed countries are believed to have better ability rather than developing countries in particular to climate change adaptation impact. It is described by several indications pointed out by several practitioners. The methods compare findings in both developing and developed countries. It is analyzing two salient data justified by rational arguments and emphasizing with some justifications then finally summarizing with solutions and recommendations.

  13. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  14. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  15. Climate change, conflict and development in Sudan: global neo-Malthusian narratives and local power struggles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoeven, Harry

    2011-01-01

    Dystopian accounts of climate change posit that it will lead to more conflict, causing state failure and mass population movements. Yet these narratives are both theoretically and empirically problematic: the conflict–environment hypothesis merges a global securitization agenda with local manipulations of Northern fears about the state of planetary ecology. Sudan has experienced how damaging this fusion of wishful thinking, power politics and top-down development can be. In the 1970s, global resource scarcity concerns were used locally to impose the fata morgana of Sudan as an Arab-African breadbasket: in the name of development, violent evictions of local communities contributed to Sudan's second civil war and associated famines. Today, Darfur has been labelled ‘the world's first climate change conflict’, masking the long-term political-economic dynamics and Sudanese agency underpinning the crisis. Simultaneously, the global food crisis is instrumentalized to launch a dam programme and agricultural revival that claim to be African answers to resource scarcity. The winners, however, are Sudan's globalized Islamist elites and foreign investors, whilst the livelihoods of local communities are undermined. Important links exist between climatic developments and security, but global Malthusian narratives about state failure and conflict are dangerously susceptible to manipulations by national elites; the practical outcomes decrease rather than increase human security. In the climate change era, the breakdown of institutions and associated violence is often not an unfortunate failure of the old system due to environmental shock, but a strategy of elites in wider processes of power and wealth accumulation and contestation.

  16. Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkett, Virginia

    2011-01-01

    The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity, air and water temperature, precipitation patterns, the rate of sea level rise, storm intensity, and wave regime. These key drivers have the potential to independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore oil and gas exploration, production, and transportation, and several impacts of climate change have already been observed in North America. - Highlights: ► Climate change effects on coastal and offshore energy development have been observed in some regions. ► Key drivers include changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, storm intensity and wave regime. ► These can independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore exploration, production, and transportation. ► A methodical vulnerability and impact assessment is needed to support adaptation in this sector of the global economy.

  17. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  18. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  19. Global Climate Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Hourly Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically...

  20. China’s Peaceful Development and Global Climate Change: A Legal Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Tianbao

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, China has witnessed rapid socio-economic progress accompanied by serious environmental problems, such as climate change, which have had a major impact on the global environment and aroused international concern about China’s peaceful development. International law on climate change has taken shape with the core instruments of the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Under the current arrangement China is temporarily exempt from having to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs, although it will face strong pressure to commit to do so in the near future. In order to prepare for future challenges and to ensure peaceful development, it is proposed that China takes the initiative at the international level, participates in events and negotiations on implementation in respect of climate change, stresses the integration of state interests and the common interest of humankind, argues for the responsibility allocation principle of common but differentiated responsibilities of developed and developing countries, and undertakes international cooperation with regards to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM. At the national level, it is advisable that China persists in and develops a legal system that favours recycling and improves policies and laws on energy and resources with a view to consolidate the construction of a conservation-minded society.

  1. Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in

  2. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  3. Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Booster to Enable Sustainable Global Development and Beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subhash Janardhan Bhore

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The global warming and its adverse effects on the atmosphere, the biosphere, the lithosphere, and the hydrosphere are obvious. Based on this fact, the international community is fully convinced that we need to fix the problem urgently for our survival, good health, and wellbeing. The aim of this article is to promote the awareness about the United Nations (UN historic ‘Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC’ which entered into-force on 4 November 2016. The expected impact of PACC on the global average temperature rise by 2100 as well as its role in enabling accomplishment of global sustainable development goals (SDGs for the people and planet is also highlighted.

  4. Ontology development for provenance tracing in National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Linyun; Ma, Xiaogang; Zheng, Jin; Goldstein, Justin; Duggan, Brian; West, Patrick; Aulenbach, Steve; Tilmes, Curt; Fox, Peter

    2014-05-01

    This poster will show how we used a case-driven iterative methodology to develop an ontology to represent the content structure and the associated provenance information in a National Climate Assessment (NCA) report of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). We applied the W3C PROV-O ontology to implement a formal representation of provenance. We argue that the use case-driven, iterative development process and the application of a formal provenance ontology help efficiently incorporate domain knowledge from earth and environmental scientists in a well-structured model interoperable in the context of the Web of Data.

  5. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker Compton J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

  6. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    Despite the great progresses of the last century in the agricultural sector and food supply, still about 820 million of people in developing countries are facing food scarcity and malnutrition. More than 180 million children are underweight. Except in Africa, 80 percent of the production gains came from increased yields in major cereal crops. The area cultivated has actually begun to decline in some regions. From now on, however, even Africa, which has always relied on cultivation of new land for production increases, will have to count on yield gains or pay high financial and ecological costs for expansion into areas not yet cultivated. The global scenario is changing fast. The technological, climatic and human-induced factors are creating long-lasting effects on the lives of people and on economic activities around the globe. In particular, climate change and/or variability is exacerbating rural increasing heat stress to natural habitats and human settlements, increasing climatic extremes, including drought and impacting food production. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress; as a result there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance. These climate change effects are particularly harmful in tropical regions of South America, Africa and South East Asia where food production is feeding a large part of world countries and poses serious risks to global food security in the future. Despite global projected climate change will affect a general decline of

  7. Small island developing states and global climate change: overcoming the constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashe, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    In the context of the debate on climate change, and related impacts such as sea-level rise, one fact that has generally been recognized is that small island developing states (SIDS) and low-lying coastal states are especially at risk. The drafters of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change identified these two categories of countries as 'particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change'. Thus sea-level rise, as one of the more nefarious manifestations of the so-called 'adverse impacts' of human-induced climate change, presents particular challenges for SIDS. These include increased erosion, flooding, loss of wetlands, and increased salinity of surface and groundwater caused by saltwater intrusion. While precise and exact answers to the questions of impacts are not yet known, climatologists, using various tools such as computer generated global circulation models, have been able to define the causes and the likely impacts of global climate change. For example, using results from the computer models, climatologists have estimated that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations from pre-industrial levels will cause global temperatures to rise between 1.0-3.5 deg. C. They have also been able to predict that with such an increase in temperature and consequent sea-level rise, severe impacts are likely to be experienced by coastal and low-lying States. These will lead directly to saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers, endangerment of wetlands and inundation of especially low-lying areas. The IPCC report also states (Watson et al., 1996) that coastal zones and small islands contain some of the world's most diverse and productive resources, and their global importance in terms of both ecological and socio-economic values is widely recognized. Their complex and specialized ecosystems such as mangroves, coral reefs and seagrasses, are highly sensitive to human intervention and support a variety of economic activities, including

  8. Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blasiak, Robert; Spijkers, Jessica; Tokunaga, Kanae; Pittman, Jeremy; Yagi, Nobuyuki; Österblom, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries' adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.

  9. Greenhouse Development Rights. An approach to the global climate regime that takes climate protection seriously while also preserving the right to human development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athanasiou, T.; Kartha, S.; Baer, P.

    2006-11-15

    This brief paper introduces a new approach to the global climate regime, one designed to recognize the urgency of the climate crisis, while at the same time embracing the fundamental right to human development. This 'Greenhouse Development Rights' approach is not primarily defended on ethical grounds. It's core justification, rather, is a realistic one - our claim is that this approach, or something like it, is needed if we're to break the global impasse over developmental equity in a climate constrained world. We put forward this new approach not because we believe that it will be readily adopted as the foundation of the post-2012 regime. Rather, we intend it as a standard of comparison, a reference framework that marks out the steps that must be part of an effective climate regime, while refusing to prejudge which of them will or will not ultimately be deemed politically acceptable. Against this reference framework, given regime proposals can be measured to determine how realistic they are, from the standpoint of genuinely addressing the North/South impasse and having a chance of preventing a climate catastrophe. The climate crisis, as most everyone in the climate community knows, is upon us. Still, the pace of our response has been profoundly inadequate, so this paper will begin with the blunt truth. The science now tells us that we're pushing beyond mere 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', and are rather on the verge of committing to catastrophic interference.

  10. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  11. Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of

  12. Developing Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Annette Skovsted

    2017-01-01

    This chapter is the first qualitative micro case study of one aspect of globalization: personal networks as a concrete outcome of development assistance spending. The empirical findings related in this paper present circumstantial evidence that Japanese foreign aid has contributed to globalization...

  13. Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Fuerstenberger, Georg; Stephan, Gunter

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R and D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem

  14. Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenle, Ademola A; Azadi, Hossein; Arbiol, Joseph

    2015-09-15

    Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The tundra - a threat to global climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roejle Christensen, T.

    1997-01-01

    The tundra biome has an important direct influence on the global climate through its exchange of radiatively active 'greenhouse gases', carbon dioxide and methane. A number of suggestions have been raised as to how a changing climate may alter the natural state of this exchange causing significant feedback effects in a changing climate. This paper provides a brief discussion of three different issues relating to the interaction between tundra and climate. It is concluded that release of methane hydrates, permafrost degradation and major biome changes are processes which in the long term may have important effects on further development of the global climate. (au) 32 refs

  16. Essays on globalization. Policies in trade, development, resources and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerkelae, L.

    2009-07-01

    This research study on globalization consists of an introduction on the methodology applied, a summary and four independent essays focussing on applied policy research in international trade. The study follows the CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) research tradition. The simulation environment is the publicly available GTAP model. The essays examine the specific topics of trade and aid policies, price liberalization of the Russian energy markets, trade preferences in the sugar sector of the EU and the role of carbon sinks in mitigating climate change. The first essay examines trade and aid policies in Mozambique. The essay analyses the impact of alternative options like trade agreements, aid and trade facilitation. The results suggest that Mozambique has very little to gain from trade agreements or the Doha Round, although some agreements with the EU do yield some benefit. Trade facilitation and aid-for-trade programs on the other hand have the potential for larger benefits. The second essay examines the impact of liberalising RussiaAEs energy sector. The analysis is based on the implicit subsidies in regulated prices of electricity and gas and focuses on the effect of the different taxes and subsidies with respect to welfare and GDP in Russia and abroad. Increases in the price of electricity and gas improve efficiency and shift output from domestic markets to exports. The third essay investigates the impact of liberalising the EUAEs sugar sector by taking into account the complex structure of the EU sugar market and preferences in imports for developing countries. The fourth essay focuses on the effects of including carbon sinks into the analysis of the impacts of the Kyoto agreement. (orig.)

  17. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  18. Globalizing the science classroom" : Exploring the development of students’ conceptual understanding of climate change from international peer collaboration

    OpenAIRE

    Korsager, Majken

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is not local, it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today’s increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently, climate change awareness and attention from the entire world’s population needs to be a global priority and we need to work collaboratively to attai...

  19. Russia and Global Climate Politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tynkkynen, Nina

    2014-09-01

    Russia, as the fourth largest greenhouse-gas emitter in the world, and a major supplier of fossil fuels causing these emissions, played a decisive role in the enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol, the main instrument of global climate policy so far. Domestically, serious political measures to combat climate change have yet to be taken. Thus, Russia's performance in global climate politics indicates that goals other than genuinely environmental ones, such as political or economic benefits, are the main motivation of Russia's participation. Also, Russia's national pride and its status as a great power are at stake here. This paper scrutinizes Russia's stance in global climate politics, offering an overview of Russia's engagement in international climate politics and its domestic climate policy. In the second part of the paper, Russia's engagement in global environmental politics is discussed in the context of Russia's world status and the great-power concept. Accordingly, the paper aims to shed light on how and why Russia behaves in global climate politics in the way it does. This may be of interest to actors in international environmental politics in general, and relevant to future climate negotiations in particular. (author)

  20. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  1. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  2. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  3. Development of land data sets for studies of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadowski, F.G.; Watkins, A.H.

    1991-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has begun a major initiative to organize, produce, and distribute land data sets that will support the land data requirements of the global change science community. Satellite image data sets, produced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensors, will be developed to provide repetitive, synoptic coverage of regional, continental, and global land areas. These data sets, integrated with related land data and supplemented by coregistered Landsat data sets, will enable scientists to quantify the fundamental land surface attributes that are needed to model land surface processes, to detect and monitor land surface change, and to map land cover. These well-structured, consistent land data sets will form the historical record of land observations prior to the era of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System sensors

  4. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher A. Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others, while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.

  5. Future climate developments in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foerland, Eirik J.; Nordeng, Thor Erik

    1999-01-01

    The article presents the first results in the project RegClim which seeks to develop detailed scenarios for climatic change in Norway due to global warming. The modeling methods are described and they are based on results from the large global climatic models: Dynamic and empirical down scaling. Preliminary results on the temperature and precipitation alterations are presented

  6. Global climate change -- taking action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

  7. Climate and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, A.K.

    1984-01-01

    The authors review the existing knowledge on the inter-relationships between climate and patterns of development; the impact variables on water and agricultural development; and the effects of climate on human health. A case study is also given of the effect of climatic fluctuations on human population in Mesopotamia. Contents: Climate and Development; Climate and Agriculture; Climate and Water Management; Climate and Health; Effects of Climate Fluctation on Human Populations; Study of Mesopotamian Society.

  8. Climate Compatible Development in the Mongolia Steppe: analysis of vulnerability and adaptation response to global changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Togtokh, C.; Galvin, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    INTRODUCTION: Climate change and variability, market and policy changes are shaping pastoral communities' decisions on what pathways their future livelihoods will take and how the steppe landscapes and river basins, are managed. Recent droughts and damaging winter storms (zuds) of the past two decades have exacerbated the situation and undermined the natural capital on which the pastoral livelihoods depend upon. River basins are critical natural resources well-being of social-ecological systems in Mongolia. River basins provide the ecosystem services which support pastoral communities and industrial and urban development. Green development strategies are strongly dependent on water resources. Consequently, integrated planning of river basin management is needed to maintain these critical ecosystem services to meet the multiple needs of livelihoods of communities in these basins and to support sustainable development activities within the basins. For this study our team worked in nine sums (i.e., county level administrative areas) in three river basins in two provinces (aimags) to collect household data from 144 households. We also collected census data from the aimags and national level to understand trends at the level of ecosystems and river basins. We have selected 3 sums in each river basis, representing forest steppe, steppe and desert steppe regions for comparison across river basins and ecological zones. FINDINGS: Integrated planning efforts would be enhanced through, one, use of a social-ecological framework and, two, the development of a cross-ministerial working group to address natural resource considerations. Across the three basins agriculture, pastoral, industrial, and urban needs vie for similar ecosystem services. The natural capital and ecosystem services of these basins need to be assessed to understand the vulnerability and capacity of the resources. The most frequently listed "best coping strategy" across all ecosystem types was for herders to

  9. Governing carbon: China in global climate politics

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Szu-hung

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to examine the dynamics of China’s engagement with global\\ud climate change. After critically reviewing mainstream neo-realist and neo-liberal\\ud institutionalist approaches to International Relations and climate change, the thesis\\ud develops a revised governmentality framework based on a critical engagement with\\ud critical IPE and Foucauldian approaches. This provides the basis for an analytical\\ud framework focusing on four distinct ‘rationalities of government’ ...

  10. Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel C; Boyd, William; Stickler, Claudia M; Bezerra, Tathiana; Azevedo, Andrea A

    2013-06-05

    Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropical nations and states that reduce their GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Market transformation, best represented by agricultural commodity roundtables, seeks to exclude unsustainable farmers from commodity markets through international social and environmental standards for farmers and processors. These global initiatives could potentially become synergistically integrated through (i) a shared approach for measuring and favouring high environmental and social performance of land use across entire jurisdictions and (ii) stronger links with the domestic policies, finance and laws in the jurisdictions where agricultural expansion is moving into forests. To achieve scale, the principles of REDD+ and sustainable farming systems must be embedded in domestic low-emission rural development models capable of garnering support across multiple constituencies. We illustrate this potential with the case of Mato Grosso State in the Brazilian Amazon.

  11. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  12. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  13. State of the Climate - Global Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  14. State of the Climate - Global Hazards

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  15. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  16. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  17. Development of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain scaling relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available To produce probability distributions for regional climate change in surface temperature and precipitation, a probability distribution for global mean temperature increase has been combined with the probability distributions for the appropriate scaling variables, i.e. the changes in regional temperature/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed. The uncertainty of the scaling relationship arises from systematic differences between the regional changes from global and regional climate model simulations and from natural variability. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty to the total variance of the scaling variable are estimated from simulated temperature and precipitation data in a suite of regional climate model experiments conducted within the framework of the EU-funded project PRUDENCE, using an Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA. For the area covered in the 2001–2004 EU-funded project SWURVE, five case study regions (CSRs are considered: NW England, the Rhine basin, Iberia, Jura lakes (Switzerland and Mauvoisin dam (Switzerland. The resulting regional climate changes for 2070–2099 vary quite significantly between CSRs, between seasons and between meteorological variables. For all CSRs, the expected warming in summer is higher than that expected for the other seasons. This summer warming is accompanied by a large decrease in precipitation. The uncertainty of the scaling ratios for temperature and precipitation is relatively large in summer because of the differences between regional climate models. Differences between the spatial climate-change patterns of global climate model simulations make significant contributions to the uncertainty of the scaling ratio for temperature. However, no meaningful contribution could be found for the scaling ratio for precipitation due to the small number of global climate models in the PRUDENCE project and natural variability, which is

  18. The global land rush and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  19. International Business and Global Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

  20. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  1. Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development

    OpenAIRE

    Nepstad, Daniel C.; Boyd, William; Stickler, Claudia M.; Bezerra, Tathiana; Azevedo, Andrea A.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropica...

  2. Clean coal technologies and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, R.S.

    1993-01-01

    The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

  3. Essays on globalization : policies in trade, development, resources and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kerkelä, Leena

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation on globalization consists of an introduction on the methodology applied, a summary and four independent essays focussing on applied policy research in international trade. The study follows the CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) research tradition. The simulation environment is the publicly available GTAP model. The essays examine the specific topics of trade and aid policies, price liberalization of the Russian energy markets, trade preferences in the sugar sector of the ...

  4. Can Skateboarding Save the Planet? A Curricular Unit on Global Climate Change Developed Through the NASA LIFT-OFF Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruett, L. E.; Burrell, S.; Chidester, C.; Metzger, E. P.

    2010-12-01

    The inclusion of global climate change education in California public high schools is constrained by several factors, including the planning time needed to effectively correlate state content standards to the multidisciplinary science of climate change, the lack of time in the curriculum, and budget constraints that limit resources for teachers. Recent efforts by the NASA LIFT-OFF program to support classroom teachers in the development of inquiry-based curricular materials have helped to alleviate many of these burdens. NASA LIFT-OFF is funded by a grant to the Alameda County Office of Education and involves a partnership between the Alameda, Santa Clara, and Los Angeles county offices of education and science faculty at California State University (CSU) East Bay, San Jose State University (SJSU), and Cal Poly Pomona. LIFT-OFF goals are to improve high school science teachers’ content knowledge through interactions with scientists from the CSU campuses, NASA, and the SETI Institute and to enhance their ability to plan and implement high-quality science inquiry in their classrooms. LIFT-OFF teachers at the three CSU campuses are developing instructional cases that use NASA resources and research-based pedagogical practices to explore engaging real-world questions. We participated in SJSU’s 2010 LIFT-OFF summer institute and worked as a team to develop a 12-day unit for high school students that focuses on the science behind global climate change. In addition to delivering science content, the unit engages students in critical thinking and evaluation. Students generate, access and interpret data, and use the knowledge gained to make small lifestyle changes that aid in the reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions. Not only does this unit of study empower students to make science-based decisions, it also incorporates diverse learning strategies, such as the use of visuals aids, language acquisition techniques to improve literacy, formative assessments and daily

  5. The development and climate nexus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidson, O.; Halsnæs, K.; Huq, S.

    2003-01-01

    in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development......This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered...... by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined...

  6. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lúcio, F.

    2012-04-01

    Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

  7. Climate change and the global malaria recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-05-20

    The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

  8. Developing Countries and Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options for Growth

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bernstein, Mark

    1999-01-01

    .... If these investments are made according to business-as-usual (BAU) investment trends, CO(2) emissions from developing country power generation will nearly triple their 1995 levels within 20 years...

  9. Transfer payments in global climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Florian; Bernauer, Thomas

    2012-08-01

    Many scientists and policymakers agree that large financial flows from richer to poorer countries will be necessary to reach an agreement on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions enough to keep global warming below 2°C. But the required amounts of transfer payments and justifications for them remain contested. We contribute to this debate by developing an argument for transfer payments that derives from the differences between carbon prices that different countries may set in light of two distinct criteria for appropriate levels of emission reductions. If, for reasons of cost efficiency, a globally uniform carbon price was installed, transfer payments would be required to offset these differences. We combine global climate modelling with regional welfare analysis to estimate regional carbon prices under various climate change, emissions and economic scenarios. The estimated ratios between regional carbon prices are surprisingly robust to different modelling assumptions. To the extent that burden-sharing choices in global climate policy are motivated by regional carbon prices, our analysis allows for a quantification of required transfer payments. Assuming a global carbon price of US$35 per tCO2, for example, our estimates would justify transfer payments of the order of US$15-48 billion per year.

  10. Global warming and global development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obasi, G.O.P.

    1992-01-01

    There are many challenges to be met as nations and peoples seek to achieve their development goals. This article addresses one related area of concern, which has drawn much public attention: the impending climate change. There is now greater awareness of this issue and of the many implications it has on developmental activities

  11. Sustainable Development South and North. Climate Change Policy Coherence in Global Trade and Financial Flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wysham, D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper has been prepared by the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network, a project of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, DC, to identify ways of encouraging support for low-carbon, anti-poverty projects in developing countries, and discouraging international financial institutions (IFIs) and export credit agencies (ECAs) from investing in carbon-intensive infrastructure. Given the slow progress of IFI and ECA reform, the paper examines a number of measures that can be introduced independent of IFI and ECA reform

  12. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  13. Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

    2015-01-01

    The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

  14. Costs of global climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the cost implications of the air pollution abatement recommendations contained in a recently published IPSEP (International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths) study on the feasibility of the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions deemed significantly responsible for the greenhouse effect and its associated negative impacts on this planet's climatic equilibrium. The air pollution abatement strategies are to be enforced in five highly industrialized European countries - Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Holland. The study's overall results indicate the feasibility of 50% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions within the next 30 years even with a more than doubling of GNP's and a contemporaneous phase-out of nuclear power production, and all this taking place in a cost effective way and with increased employment. In addition, IPSEP's report states that the implementation of effective program management strategies would bolster Western Europe's competitiveness on a global scale

  15. Cloud Compute for Global Climate Station Summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, R.; May, B.; Cogbill, P.

    2017-12-01

    Global Climate Station Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically are statistical analyses of station data over 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-year or longer time periods. The summaries are computed from the global surface hourly dataset. This dataset totaling over 500 gigabytes is comprised of 40 different types of weather observations with 20,000 stations worldwide. NCEI and the U.S. Navy developed these value added products in the form of hourly summaries from many of these observations. Enabling this compute functionality in the cloud is the focus of the project. An overview of approach and challenges associated with application transition to the cloud will be presented.

  16. Developing a system of multi-evaluation of the impact of global climate change on human health in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granberg, I.; Golitsyn, G.; Istoshin, N.; Efimenko, N.; Alekhin, A.; Rogoza, A.; Povolotskaya, N.; Artamonova, M.; Pogarski, F.

    2009-04-01

    High people sensitivity to weather and space factors, particularly encumbered by various illnesses, was from time immemorial. Now, in terms of global climate change, accompanied by frequent and severe restructuring of atmospheric processes, thermal anomalies, droughts, environmental change through meteorological and heliogeophysical factors affect the human body particularly intense, causing adverse effects to health. There are currently beginning to develop methods for evaluating multifactor of the external environment and prevention of their negative influence on people. For those sensitive to such influences, with adverse weather in response to sudden changes in weather factors pathological of meteopathic reactions may arise. In doing so, even among healthy individuals it is up to 35-45% of meteosensitive. Meteopathic reactions lead to the appearance and progression of pathological disorders, and the associated increase in chronic diseases. In this connection the tasks solution related to assessing the impact of meteorological and climatic variations of different space-time scale on the health of the population of Russia becomes extremely important, especially for the people with cardiovascular disease. This is confirmed by as clinical observations, and the state of vital systems of meteosensitive people. Based on the results of comprehensive research of Pyatigorsk State Research Institute of Curortology (PSRIC), the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP), and Hydrometeocenter of Russia in the region of Caucasian Mineral Waters (CMW) by scientists of IAP and PSRIC there was established a system of Operational Medical Weather Forecast (OMWF), which aims to have possibility on time to host events for the prevention of meteopathic reactions of people with high meteodependence. Also, we have introduced improved definition of Weather Pathogenicity Index (WPI) for medical weather forecast. As a basis of medical weather

  17. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  18. Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

    2014-09-01

    Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the

  19. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  20. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  1. Development studies towards an 11-year global gridded aerosol optical thickness reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Zhang, J.; Hogan, T. F.; Hyer, E. J.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D. A.; Shi, Y.; Campbell, J. R.; Rubin, J. I.; Sessions, W. R.; Turk, F. J.; Walker, A. L.

    2015-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need in numerous climate and applied applications for a fused product on a regular grid. Aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers, and like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see significant use in the near future. Here we present a standardized 2003-2013 global 1° × 1° and 6 hourly modal aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product. This dataset can be applied to basic and applied earth system science studies of significant aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and electro-optical propagation and sensor performance, among other uses. This paper describes the science of how to develop and score an aerosol reanalysis product. This reanalysis utilizes a modified Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled retrievals of AOT from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra. The aerosol source functions, including dust and smoke, were regionally tuned to obtain the best match between the model fine and coarse mode AOTs and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOTs. Other model processes, including deposition, were tuned to minimize the AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT. Aerosol wet deposition in the tropics is driven with satellite retrieved precipitation, rather than the model field. The final reanalyzed fine and coarse mode AOT at 550 nm is shown to have good agreement with AERONET observations, with global mean root mean square error around 0.1 for both fine and coarse mode AOTs. This paper includes a discussion of issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses, considerations for extending such a reanalysis outside of the NASA A-Train era, and examples of how the

  2. Global climate change and children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely (>90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health, many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  3. Global climate change and life on earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyman, R.L. (ed.)

    1991-01-01

    The main theme of the conference was the consequence for life of the greenhouse effect and global climate change. Information on climate change is integrated with information on overpopulation, air pollution, ozone depletion species extinction, and habitat destruction. Descriptions are given of global climate change and the environmental changes that may be associated with it. The evidence for climate change is presented and general circulation models are described. Information provided by the GCMs to predict what the consequences may be, is used. The final chapters deal with the direct impacts of climate change on human beings and on policy response that are needed to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

  4. Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

    OpenAIRE

    Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

  5. Globalization and Climate Change Regulations in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Sulistiawati, Linda Yanti

    2012-01-01

    Globalization is rampant in every aspect of human life. Climate change is a global issue and hence Indonesia must equip itself with sufficient national laws and regulations that are easily implemented. Securing funds from the international community is also a strategy to prepare the nation to face climate change. Globalisasi terjadi di setiap aspek kehidupan manusia. Perubahan iklim adalah isu global sehingga Indonesia harus mempersiapkan diri dengan cara menyusun peraturan perundang-undangan...

  6. Climate change and global infectious disease threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, E K

    The world's climate is warming up and, while debate continues about how much change we can expect, it is becoming clear that even small changes in climate can have major effects on the spread of disease. Erwin K Jackson, a member of Greenpeace International's Climate Impacts Unit and a delegate to the 11th session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Rome, 11-15 December), reviews the scientific evidence of this new global threat to health.

  7. Towards a global climate constitution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weikard, H.P.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper my concern is the study of the incentives of individual countries to sign an international climate agreement that sets the terms of a climate constitution, that is, it establishes emission rights and rules for trading these rights to combat the climate problem effectively and

  8. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs......Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels...

  9. Developing Successful Global Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Training, 2011

    2011-01-01

    Everyone seems to agree the world desperately needs strong leaders who can manage a global workforce and all the inherent challenges that go with it. That's a big part of the raison d'etre for global leadership development programs. But are today's organizations fully utilizing these programs to develop global leaders, and, if so, are they…

  10. Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

    1991-01-01

    If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

  11. Antarctic snow and global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granberg, H.B.

    2001-01-01

    Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that global warming will be most pronounced at polar regions and high latitudes, causing concern about the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. A project entitled the Seasonal Snow in Antarctica examined the properties of the near surface snow to determine the current conditions that influence snow cover development. The goal was to assess the response of the snow cover in Queen Maud Land (QML) to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content. The Antarctic snow cover in QML was examined as part of the FINNARP expeditions in 1999 and 2000 which examined the processes that influence the snow cover. Its energy and mass balance were also assessed by examining the near surface snow strata in shallow (1-2 m) pits and by taking measurements of environmental variables. This made it possible to determine if the glacier is in danger of melting at this northerly location in the Antarctic. The study also made it possible to determine which variables need to change and by how much, for significant melting to occur. It was shown that the Antarctic anticyclone creates particular conditions that protect the snow cover from melting. The anticyclone brings dry air from the stratosphere during most of the year and is exempt from the water vapour feedback. It was concluded that even a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not produce major snow melt runoff. 8 refs

  12. Global climate change and rangelands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if possible, how to mitigate its negative impacts. The presentations in this session will move beyond the prediction of ...

  13. [The global climate: a sick patient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lidegaard, O.; Lidegaard, M.

    2008-01-01

    , and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8/25......Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature...

  14. [The global climate: a sick patient].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lidegaard, Øjvind; Lidegaard, Martin

    2008-08-25

    Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature, and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives.

  15. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  16. Malaysia's contributions towards global climate change concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzlaini Mohd Yusop; Yvonne Lunsong; Norhayati Kamaruddin

    2000-01-01

    Concerns about Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change were voiced by the scientific community as far back as the International Geophysical year in 1957 when climate changes scenarios and impacts were analysed. More recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, renewing a global acknowledgement and commitment towards curbing GHG emissions. Little progress was made until the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, over 5 years later. Basically, developed countries would not commit to strong measures if there were no global effort (i. e. corresponding efforts by developing countries) while developing countries are waiting for developed countries to show concrete results first. Since 1950, developed countries cumulatively produced more than 80% of worldwide GHG emissions. Between 1950 and 1990, North America alone contributed 40 billion tons of carbon while Western and Eastern Europe contributed 57 billion tons. Developing countries produced only 24 billion tons of carbon emissions during the same period. At present, per capita emission in developed countries are also about ten times higher than those of developing countries. This imbalance has caused most developing countries to adopt a wait till others do it stance and justifiably so. Nonetheless, curbing GHG emissions should be a larger community effort (which includes business and the public) and not just the efforts of Governments and officials. Thus, the deciding factors should make more business or economic sense. It is likely that business and the general public would listen and contribute positively if they are made aware of potential cost savings and international competitiveness to be derived from these efforts. During the current economic slowdown, especially in East Asia, it makes business sense to defer the capital investment in new electricity generating capacity and related energy supply infrastructure. Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  17. Impact of solar panels on global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Aixue; Levis, Samuel; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Washington, Warren M.; Oleson, Keith W.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; He, Mingqiong; Strand, Warren G.

    2016-03-01

    Regardless of the harmful effects of burning fossil fuels on global climate, other energy sources will become more important in the future because fossil fuels could run out by the early twenty-second century given the present rate of consumption. This implies that sooner or later humanity will rely heavily on renewable energy sources. Here we model the effects of an idealized large-scale application of renewable energy on global and regional climate relative to a background climate of the representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6; ref. ). We find that solar panels alone induce regional cooling by converting incoming solar energy to electricity in comparison to the climate without solar panels. The conversion of this electricity to heat, primarily in urban areas, increases regional and global temperatures which compensate the cooling effect. However, there are consequences involved with these processes that modulate the global atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in regional precipitation.

  18. Climate finance, climate investors and assets for low emission development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins C Ngwakwe

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between climate finance, growth in climate investors and growth in climate assets for low emission development. It also evaluates the effect of climate policy evolution on the growth of climate investors and climate assets. Adopting a positivist paradigm, the paper makes use of a quantitative research approach and applies the causal and correlational research design. The paper made use of secondary data from the World Bank Carbon Finance Unit and from the Carbon Disclosure Project (ADP. The major objective was to examine the combined effect of climate finance and climate policy on the growth of carbon investors and carbon assets for the companies in the Carbon Disclosure Project which includes the 100 JSE companies. Findings from the test reveal that the combined effect of growth in climate finance and climate policy evolution has a significant relationship with growth in climate investors and climate assets. Given this result the paper proceeded to examine if the growth in climate finance has any correlation with South Africa’s emission reduction trend. Results however indicate that South Africa’s GHG emission trend does not correlate with climate finance availability; GHG emissions in South Africa have continued to soar despite a seeming growth in climate finance. The paper reasoned that the global climate finance might not be effectively available to corporates in South Africa at the expected level of financing to initiate the expected level of climate investment to effect a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This confirms literature assertions that global climate finance might not easily be accessible, at least to entities in developing countries. In conclusion, the paper suggests the establishment of a Southern African Climate Finance pool where the public and private sector can contribute and that such pool should be made easily available to carbon investors at a cheap rate with

  19. Power Engineering and Global Climate Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Канило, П. М.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, three ecological problems are in the focus of humanities concern: the global climate warming on Earth, the future of the ozone layer and the circularity of global bio-geo-chemical cycles (the concept of biotic regulation of the environment). Further climate warming can result in adverse consequences such as enhanced evaporation of World Ocean water and intensification of the greenhouse effect, stratosphere cooling and respective thinning of the protective ozone screen, a rising lev...

  20. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  1. National Security and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    and jobs needed by large urban populations. Climate change does not respect politi- cal borders. People may be forced to move across those boundaries...make the world safer from climate change . Effective mitigation could help clean the environment and eliminate oil depen- dency. Building resiliency...global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious discussion by polar- izing decisionmakers and the public into camps of “believers” and “skeptics

  2. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

  3. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  4. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Global climate change has already begun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

  6. Climate change impacts on global agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Betts, Richard; Falloon, Pete; Wiltshire, Andy; Tol, Richard S J

    Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the

  7. The global climate Policy Evaluation Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohan, D.; Stafford, R.K.; Scheraga, J.D.; Herrod, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Policy Evaluation Framework (PEF) is a decision analysis tool that enables decision makers to continuously formulate policies that take into account the existing uncertainties, and to refine policies as new scientific information is developed. PEF integrates deterministic parametric models of physical, biological, and economic systems with a flexible decision tree system. The deterministic models represent greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric accumulation of these gases, global and regional climate changes, ecosystem impacts, economic impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options, The decision tree system captures the key scientific and economic uncertainties, and reflects the wide range of possible outcomes of alternative policy actions. The framework contains considerable flexibility to allow a wide range of scientific and economic assumptions or scenarios to be represented and explored. A key feature of PEF is its capability to address both mitigation policies and investments in anticipatory adaptation to protect ecological and economic systems, as well as interactions among such options. PEF's time structure allows issues related to the timing and flexibility of alternatives to be evaluated, while the decision tree structure facilitates examining questions involving the value of information, contingent actions, and probabilistic representations. This paper is intended to introduce PEF to the global climate policy community. The paper provides an overview of the structure, modules, and capabilities of PEF, and discusses selected results from an initial set of illustrative applications

  8. Global Warming and Climate Change Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Atul

    2008-03-01

    Global climate change has emerged as a major scientific and political issue within a few short decades. Scientific evidence clearly indicates that this change is a result of a complex interplay between a number of human-related and natural earth systems. While the complexity of the earth-ocean-atmosphere system makes the understanding and prediction of global climate change very difficult, improved scientific knowledge and research capabilities are advancing our understanding of global climate change resulting from rising atmospheric levels of radiatively important (mostly heat-trapping) gases and particles. The effects of climate change can be assessed with climate models, which account for complex physical, chemical and biological processes, and interactions of these processes with human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels along with land use changes. This presentation begins with a discussion of the current understanding of the concerns about climate change, and then discusses the role climate models in scientific projections of climate change as well as their current strengths and weaknesses.

  9. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

    2011-01-01

    Whether it is caused totally by human activity, the Earth’s own natural cycles, or a combination of the two, climate change is a fact. Some changes – melting polar ice, thawing of the tundra, increasing average temperature – already are being felt, and others will manifest themselves in the next...... few decades. Because climate change itself will have a profound effect on where food is grown, what food is grown, and where people live, and because addressing the impact climate change have an effect on the way resources – natural, human, corporate, financial – are accessed and mobilized......, it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...

  10. Globalization and Climate Change Regulations in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Yanti Sulistiawati

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalization is rampant in every aspect of human life. Climate change is a global issue and hence Indonesia must equip itself with sufficient national laws and regulations that are easily implemented. Securing funds from the international community is also a strategy to prepare the nation to face climate change. Globalisasi terjadi di setiap aspek kehidupan manusia. Perubahan iklim adalah isu global sehingga Indonesia harus mempersiapkan diri dengan cara menyusun peraturan perundang-undangan nasional yang dapat diterapkan dengan mudah. Mendapatkan dana bantuan internasional juga merupakan strategi yang dapat diambil untuk mempersiapkan diri menghadapi perubahan iklim.

  11. Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Baker, Paul A.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E.; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Mix, Alan C.; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Pahnke, Katharina

    2012-01-01

    Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to th...

  12. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  13. Globalization, consumption, development

    OpenAIRE

    Binsbergen, van, W.M.J.; Fardon, R.; Binsbergen, van, W.M.J.; Dijk, van, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The papers collected in this volume were first presented at a conference on 'Globalization, development and the making of consumers: what are collective identities for?' which was held in The Hague, The Netherlands, on 13-16 March 1997. The papers are concerned with the challenge to the development paradigm presented by its potential submersion within processes of economic globalization. The following chapters are on Africa: The accountability of commodities in a global marketplace: the cases...

  14. A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

  15. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  16. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  17. Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

  18. Global change researchers assess projections of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Eric J.

    In October 1994 climate researchers met at the Forum on Global Change Modeling to create a consensus document summarizing the debate on issues related to the use of climate models to influence policy. The charge to the Forum was to develop a brief statement on the credibility of projections of climate change provided by General Circulation Models. The Forum focused specifically on the climate aspects of the entire global change issue, not on emission scenarios, the consequences of change to ecosystems and natural resource systems, or the socio-economic implications and potential for responses.The Forum report put thoughts on this often divisive issue into perspective for use by the Government Accounting Office in developing and considering national policy options. The forum was organized in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology by the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research, abranch of the new Committee on Earth and Natural Resources set up by the Clinton administration.

  19. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  20. Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL; Vineyard, Edward Allan [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.

  1. National action to mitigate global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    Over 170 participants from 60 countries met for three days in Copenhagen from 7 to 9 June 1994 to discuss howe the aims of the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change can be translated into practical action. The Conference was organised by the UNEP collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), with financial support from the Danish International Development Agency (Danida), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark. The main objective of the conference was to identify common approaches to national mitigation analysis for countries to use in meeting their commitments under the FCCC, and in setting priorities for national actions. Although addressing a broader theme, the conference marked the completion and publication of the second phase on UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Study. (au)

  2. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, Fred

    2009-01-01

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  3. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  4. Global climate change. A petroleum industry perspective. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flannery, B.P.; Clarke, R.

    1992-01-01

    The proceedings of a symposium organised by the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) in 1992 are presented. The topics covered include: the science and environmental impacts of global climate change; future greenhouse gas emissions and reduction prospects; the role of energy in development; international and regional processes relating to climate change; the scale and timing of options in response to climate change; cutting carbon emissions; implementation strategies, mechanisms and institution; long and short term energy planning; North Sea oil and gas development; Indonesian oil and gas development; Italian experience of the role of natural gas in reducing greenhouse gas emissions; opportunities for improving energy efficiency and the environment in power generation; issues to consider in the economic analysis of global climate change policies; economic assessment of CO 2 control policies; developing economic responses; the impact of response measures by industrialized countries on the world economy; reducing US CO 2 emissions - the value of flexibility in timing; criteria for policy analysis. (UK)

  5. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  6. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  7. Global climate change and California's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaux, H.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  8. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  9. Global product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Thomas Paul; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2016-01-01

    Selecting key performance indicators in conventional product development is a challenging task for project management and is compound by global product development. Informed from the findings of two in depth case studies conducted with large Danish manufacturing companies, in this paper we develop...... and test a framework that supports the selection of Leading and Lagging key performance indicators in global product development. The framework provides an alternative approach to design, select and document key performance indicators by incorporating a challenge-oriented approach to selection....

  10. Global product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Thomas Paul; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2016-01-01

    and test a framework that supports the selection of Leading and Lagging key performance indicators in global product development. The framework provides an alternative approach to design, select and document key performance indicators by incorporating a challenge-oriented approach to selection.......Selecting key performance indicators in conventional product development is a challenging task for project management and is compound by global product development. Informed from the findings of two in depth case studies conducted with large Danish manufacturing companies, in this paper we develop...

  11. Climate change impact on global potato production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Robertson, Richard; Petsakos, Athanasios; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Quiroz, Roberto; Hareau, Guy; Wolf, Joost

    2017-01-01

    Potato is the most important non-grain crop in the world. Therefore, understanding the potential impacts of climate change on potato production is critical for future global food security. The SUBSTOR-Potato model was recently evaluated across a wide range of growing conditions, and improvements

  12. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Tami C

    2007-01-01

    'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

  13. Global alteration of climate - hopes and fears

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viktorov, V.V.

    1992-01-01

    Problems concerning gaseous emission affecting the global climate alteration connected with hotbed effect are considered. Economical and social-political ways of solution of the problem of minimization of gaseous wastes are described. Role of nuclear power plants and alternative power plants in the hotbed effect are analyzed. International cooperation in environmental protection policy is discussed

  14. Climat Policy of the Russian Federation and the Problem of Global Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliya A. Rusakova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the participation of Russia in the system of global governance of climate change. Object of analysis is the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation. Climate Doctrine states that global warming may have both a negative and positive consequences for our country in view of its geographical position, length and area. These features, as well as the low population density in the regions of greatest climate risk, open up additional opportunities for adaptation to climate change. At the same time it emphasizes the need to prevent conflict of regional interests in the formation of climate policy. The author advocates a more active position of Russia in overcoming the effects of climate change, as well as the reduction of anthropogenic impact on the global climate effects. It emphasizes the role of civil society and the media in the development of environmental awareness among the political elite of the country. The article separately considers Moscow's participation in the formulation and implementation of climate policy in Russia. Currently, the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of Moscow is working on updating the Memorandum of Understanding between Moscow and C40 (Partnership of major cities in the fight against climate change as the main framework document regulating cooperation with the C40 and the membership of Moscow in the organization.

  15. Development through globalization?

    OpenAIRE

    Nayyar, Deepak

    2006-01-01

    This paper seeks to analyze the prospects for development in a changed international context, where globalization has diminished the policy space so essential for countries that are latecomers to development. The main theme is that, to use the available policy space for development, it is necessary to redesign strategies by introducing correctives and to rethink development by incorporating different perspectives, if development is to bring about an improvement in the well-being of people. In...

  16. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  17. Globalization, Democracy and Development

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge Braga de Macedo; Luis Brites Pereira; Joaquim Oliveira Martins; João Tovar Jalles

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the interactions between globalization, the quality of democracy, and economic convergence using simultaneous estimation techniques. To reflect process, we use multi-dimensional, de facto, and continuous measures of democracy and globalization. To reflect context, as defined by space (geography) and time (history), we control for the distance to the income frontier. Using this measure of development, we extend the test for the two-way relationship between democracy and gl...

  18. Climate change and developing country interests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Chinowsky, Paul; Fant, Charles

    We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for...

  19. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  20. Globalization, consumption, development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Binsbergen, van W.M.J.; Fardon, R.; Binsbergen, van W.M.J.; Dijk, van R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The papers collected in this volume were first presented at a conference on 'Globalization, development and the making of consumers: what are collective identities for?' which was held in The Hague, The Netherlands, on 13-16 March 1997. The papers are concerned with the challenge to the development

  1. Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Bergh, Jeroen; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a

  2. Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.

    2017-11-01

    The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.

  3. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  4. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  5. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  6. Developing a Global Soil Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Boer

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available From the 1960s onwards, the global community became more aware of the phenomena of air and water pollution. More recently, the issues of climate change, loss of biodiversity, desertification, drought, and land degradation have become more prominent. While biodiversity loss and climate change have garnered close attention, issues of land degradation and sustainability of soils has attracted less focus in international fora and by national governments. We argue here that soil, as a vital biological and cultural resource, demands attention on the same level as biological diversity and climate change, and that this should be reflected in both international law and in legislation at national level. This article explores the elements that could form the basis of a global instrument for the conservation and sustainable use of soil, and sets out the premise for the community of nations to support the negotiation and drafting of such an instrument. It does so in light of the recent discussion on the introduction of a provision in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals on the achievement of zero net land degradation, the revision of the World Soil Charter as well as the work of the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food. It also briefly explores other complementary mechanisms that can be used for promoting the sustainable use of soils.

  7. Global product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2011-01-01

    Globalisation has enabled companies to globalise their product development process. Today, everything from manufacturing to R&D can be globally distributed. This has led to a more complex and disintegrated product development process. This paper investigates the impacts companies have experienced...... as a result of this, and how they have been addressed. Data was collected through case studies of five Danish multinational corporations. The findings showed that the companies experienced several challenges when they globalised their product development process. They consequently implemented various...... operational solutions to counteract the negative impacts with varying degrees of success. This paper presents a unique look into global product development through an investigation of its impact on the organisation, the product development process, and the product. Furthermore, it shows the solutions...

  8. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Peterson, A.T.; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios...

  9. Developing Global Transformational Leaders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramsey, Jase R.; Rutti, Raina M.; Lorenz, Melanie P.

    2016-01-01

    Despite significant increases in training and development of global managers, little is known about the precursors of transformational leadership in Multilatinas. While prior cross-cultural literature suggests that being an autocratic leader is ideal in Multilatinas, using transformational leader...... of transformational leadership because they are better able to understand the differences of other cultures, and appropriately adjust their behavior....

  10. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global Snow & Ice

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  11. Global climate-friendly trade : Canada's chance to clean up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldfarb, D.

    2010-03-01

    This paper discussed the global trade and investment in climate-friendly technologies, Canada's current position in this market, and the policy changes that are necessary for Canadian businesses to gain a stronger foothold in this sector. The global market for climate-friendly technologies is growing rapidly, but Canadian businesses have generally failed to exploit opportunities to export climate-friendly technologies and have generally lagged other countries in adopting such technologies developed elsewhere. Although Canadian businesses generally underperform in this sector, Canada does have notable strengths in 13 identified areas, including waste management technologies, energy technologies, and in parts of the value chains associated with wind and solar power. Targeting these areas of relative strength for further development could position Canada as a global leader in some climate-friendly technologies. For this to happen, Canadian governments need to establish clear policies, invest in research and development, and remove domestic and international barriers to the development and trade in climate-friendly technologies. 30 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs.

  12. State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the sun lit upper layer of the global ocean is the overwhelmingly dominant source of organic matter that fuels marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the global (land and ocean) net primary production (NPP; gross photosynthesis minus plant respiration) and phytoplankton carbon fixation is the primary conduit through which atmospheric CO2 concentrations interact with the ocean s carbon cycle. Phytoplankton productivity depends on the availability of sunlight, macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorous), and micronutrients (e.g., iron), and thus is sensitive to climate-driven changes in the delivery of these resources to the euphotic zone

  13. Tropical forest policies for the global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

  14. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the trop...

  15. Forecasting the Development of the Tourism Industry in the Regions of Russia in Light of Global Climate Change and Environmental Situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evreinov, O. B.; Maksimova, E. M.; Bakanova, A. A.; Yakovleva, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting the development of the tourism industry is a strategic planning for periods ranging from 20 to 50 years. Basis for the development of tourism in the region is the presence of the necessary infrastructure - roads, communications, accommodation facilities and hospitality. Thus, all investments in the tourism industry are very long-term. Current approaches to long-term planning in tourism based on the most efficient use of the region's resources - natural, cultural, etc. But what will happen to these resources in 20-30 years? Global warming and climate change, a change in environmental conditions - all this gives the real impact today. Summer 2010 in Moscow and in the whole of Europe, warm snowless winters in St. Petersburg, monthly temperature records, permafrost thawing in Siberia - all this can affect the characteristics of the tourist regions in the future. In the presentation, the authors have tried to reflect the basic principles of strategic planning with regard to global and regional changes and to show the possible impact of such changes on Tourism industry in specific regions of Russia for the next 30-50 years.

  16. Global software development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiesen, Stina

    2016-01-01

    This overview presents the mid stages of my doctoral research-based on ethnographic work conducted in IT companies in India and in Denmark-on collaborative work within global software development (GSD). In the following I briefly introduce how this research seeks to spark a debate in CSCW...... by challenging contemporary ideals about software development outsourcing through the exploration of the multiplicities and asymmetric dynamics inherent in the collaborative work of GSD....

  17. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    Committee on Science, Space , and Technology, Technologies and Strategies for Addressing Global Climate Change, Hearings, 17 July 1991 (Washington...Generations, Economic Analysis, and the Policy Process,” in U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Science, Space , and Technology, Technologies and...through the ecological lens, lives and such values as intergenerational equity should not be quantified as a commodity.68 What people need are

  18. Health effects of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  19. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  20. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  1. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  2. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  3. Global Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søderberg, Anne-Marie; Krishna, S.; Bjørn, Pernille

    2013-01-01

    -term relationships with European clients are created and maintained, both at company and project levels. We investigate this issue through qualitative interviews with various vendor representatives in offshore and on-site teams in a top tier multinational company of Indian origin. In the analysis of interview....... The article draws attention to the important collaborative work done by people who are able to span boundaries in the complex organizational set-up of global IT development projects....

  4. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  5. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  6. Climate change and the World Bank: opportunity for global governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehmer-Christiansen, S.A.

    1999-01-01

    The direct and indirect efforts of the World Bank and its off-spring, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), to become leading international agents of global environmental 'governance' and 'sustainable development' are described and analysed politically with reference to the development of an implementation regime of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Bank/GEF are seen as engaging in a potentially dangerous experiment of 'global ecological modernisation', or industrial transformation, in 'emerging economies', an experiment legitimised by reference to the catastrophic threat of man-made 'global warming'. This threat is already being translated into political, commercial and bureaucratic benefits accruing to a small global elite. How was this achieved and what are the likely political implications? (author)

  7. Addressing Pre-service Teachers Ideas About Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, R. V.; Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Lindgren, J.; Edwards, A.; Soden, B.

    2011-12-01

    Despite the scientific consensus about global climate change (GCC) and the potential risk, the media often portrays the science as controversial and as a debate (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011). According to a recent report, young adults are divided on the issue of global warming (Feldman, Nisbet, Leiserowitz, & Maibach, 2010). Understanding both the science and the nature of this issue is especially important for future teachers. Also, given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. This study examines undergraduate science methods students' views of GCC, the relationship between students' views and their knowledge of GCC, and the impact of the course instructional approach. Students' views of GCC were assessed using the Views of Global Climate Change instrument (VGCC), a survey developed by the authors of this study (Lambert et al., 2010). The survey was developed to specifically measure students' views on: 1) their knowledge of GCC, 2) causes of GCC, 3) evidence (or indicators) of GCC, 4) impacts of GCC, 5) actions or solutions, 6) influence of politics on the issue of GCC, 7) scientific consensus, 8) trust of sources of information, and 9) concern about GCC. The Knowledge of Global Climate Change instrument (KGCC) (Lambert, Bleicher, & Lindgren, 2011) was employed to measure students' understanding of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and consequences of GCC. Pre-surveys indicated that 49% of the students felt that human activity was the main cause of climate change. At the conclusion of the course, 72% of the students thought that humans were causing climate change, and students' overall views about global warming significantly shifted toward being more concerned. Students' knowledge of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and impacts also increased significantly

  8. Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

    2012-03-28

    In this DOE project the improvements to parameterization of marine primary organic matter (POM) emissions, hygroscopic properties of marine POM, marine isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emissions, surfactant effects, new cloud droplet activation parameterization have been implemented into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), with a seven mode aerosol module from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Modal Aerosol Model (MAM7). The effects of marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) on microphysical properties of clouds were explored by conducting 10 year CAM5.0-MAM7 model simulations at a grid resolution 1.9° by 2.5° with 30 vertical layers. Model-predicted relationship between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of CCN in remote marine atmosphere was compared to data from the A-Train satellites (MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E). Model simulations show that on average, primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from the ocean can yield up to 20% increase in Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) at 0.2% Supersaturation, and up to 5% increases in droplet number concentration of global maritime shallow clouds. Marine organics were treated as internally or externally mixed with sea salt. Changes associated with cloud properties reduced (absolute value) the model-predicted short wave cloud forcing from -1.35 Wm-2 to -0.25 Wm-2. By using different emission scenarios, and droplet activation parameterizations, this study suggests that addition of marine primary aerosols and biologically generated reactive gases makes an important difference in radiative forcing assessments. All baseline and sensitivity simulations for 2001 and 2050 using global-through-urban WRF/Chem (GU-WRF) were completed. The main objective of these simulations was to evaluate the capability of GU-WRF for an accurate representation of the global atmosphere by exploring the most accurate

  9. Global warming and abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, A. J.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.

    2004-05-01

    Despite recent the recent IPCC (2001) assessment that "Most models show weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Thermohaline Circulation (THC), which contributes to a reduction of surface warming in the northern North Atlantic. Even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe due to increased greenhouse gases." there is still a widespread misunderstanding of the possible consequence of climate change on the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning. In particular, it is often touted, especially in the media that a possible consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is: "Global warming will cause the onset of the next ice age". Here we document the history from where this misconception arose and quantitatively show how it is impossible for an ice age to ensue as a consequence of global warming. Through analysis of the paleoclimate record as well as a number of climate model simulations, we also suggest that it is very unlikely that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning will cease to be active in the near future. We further suggest that a region where intermediate water formation may shut down is in the Labrador Sea, although this has more minor consequences for climate than if deep water formation in the Nordic Seas were to cease.

  10. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Hannah

    Full Text Available International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  11. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  12. Development of a Climate Prediction Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulston, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

  13. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  14. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-09-23

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

  15. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  16. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  17. "we cannot Wait to ACT!" Simulating Global Climate Summits with Gifted and Talented Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haste, T.; Vesperman, D.; Alrivy, S.

    2012-12-01

    Students simulated the 2011 Durban Climate Summit in order to experience two roles: global diplomats attempting to solve a significant global problem and scientists as contributors of knowledge. Together, they worked to develop a framework to provide global solutions as world leaders. This project demonstrated [highlighted?] student work from the climate summit, describing how students promoted dialogue and provided climate science information to their diplomatic peers, who then used this information in diplomatic negotiations. By focusing on increasing student climate literacy, students engaged in both climate science and global diplomacy through meaningful simulations to understand the global and political issues surrounding Climate Change mitigation. Three classes of international middle school students attending Johns Hopkins Center for Talented Youth summer programs enacted the 2011 Durban Model United Nations meeting. One class developed a deep understanding of climate and climate science by working with computer models and data to represent members of the IPCC. Members of this class collaborated with climate scientists, conducted experiments, and developed a well-rounded understanding of paleoclimate, current climatic trends, carbon cycling, and modeling future outcomes. Two additional classes took on the roles of UN diplomats, researched their respective nations, engaged in practice UN simulations, and developed a working understanding of the diplomatic process. Students representing the IPCC assisted their diplomatic peers in developing and proposing possible UN resolutions. All three classes worked together to enact the Durban Climate Summit with the underlying focus of developing diplomatic Climate Change mitigation strategies and ultimately resolutions for member nations.

  18. Climate Services for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunby, M.; Bhaskaran, B.; Buontempo, C.; Willett, K.

    2010-09-01

    Working to improve the lives of the poorest people in the world is a huge challenge that has cost 2.3 trillion over the last 50 years. The work is far from done. Now there is also the challenge of adapting to changes in climate that threaten the very land on which the poorest live and work. There can be no simple plan to solve these problems, but those with information, knowledge or skills that could make a difference have a vital role to play. In this presentation we explore recent developments in communications technologies, the use of these technologies in assisting development in poorer countries, and how "open data" is enabling the rapid flow of information to those who need it most. Examples of recent Met Office projects and collaborations illustrate challenges faced and technical approaches already available. We pay particular attention to "feedback" - gathering information from end users throughout the entire lifetime of a service in order to best allocate resources and make rapid improvements in the quality, reach and benefits of climate services.

  19. Amazonia: Burning and global climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molion, L.C.B.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, humans have been playing a major role in reducing the natural forest cover in the tropics through different forms of slash and burn. The most serious destruction, it is said, is occurring in the Amazon, which is the largest expanse of tropical forest remaining on the planet. This chapter reviews briefly the causes and the extent of Amazonian deforestation and focuses on its global and local climate impacts. In addition, the effects of loss of diversity and need to preserve Indian cultures and societies are briefly discussed

  20. A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

  1. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2015-04-01

    The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva 2009) unanimously decided to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO to guide the development and application of science-based climate information and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors. By promoting science-based decision-making, the GFCS is empowering governments, communities and companies to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to impacts. The initial priority areas of GFCS are Agriculture and Food Security; Disaster Risk Reduction; Health; and Water Resources. The implementation of GFCS is well underway with a governance structure now fully established. The governance structure of GFCS includes the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC), which is GFCS's stakeholder engagement mechanism. The membership of the PAC allows for a broad participation of stakeholders. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Commission (EC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Global Water Partnership (GWP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO have already joined the PAC. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and Pacific Small Islands Developing States through flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas of GFCS to enable the development of a Proof of Concept. The focus at national level is on strengthening institutional capacities needed for development of capacities for co-design and co-production of climate services and their application in support of decision-making in climate sensitive

  2. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  3. From climate to global change: Following the footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin

    2017-10-01

    To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.

  4. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2014-05-01

    The GFCS is a global partnership of governments and UN and international agencies that produce and use climate information and services. WMO, which is leading the initiative in collaboration with UN ISDR, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNESCO, UNDP and other UN and international partners are pooling their expertise and resources in order to co-design and co-produce knowledge, information and services to support effective decision making in response to climate variability and change in four priority areas (agriculture and fod security, water, health and disaster risk reduction). To address the entire value chain for the effective production and application of climate services the GFCS main components or pillars are being implemented, namely: • User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact to identify needs and capacities and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services; • Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data, products and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards; • Observations and Monitoring - to generate the necessary data for climate services according to agreed standards; • Research, Modelling and Prediction — to harness science capabilities and results and develop appropriate tools to meet the needs of climate services; • Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South pacific Islands. This paper will provide details on the status of implementation of the GFCS worldwider.

  5. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  6. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

    2010-10-07

    Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

  7. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengård

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective: To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results: The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion: Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health.

  8. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E; Street-Perrott, F Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset.

  9. Climate legacies drive global soil carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Eldridge, David J; Maestre, Fernando T; Karunaratne, Senani B; Trivedi, Pankaj; Reich, Peter B; Singh, Brajesh K

    2017-04-01

    Climatic conditions shift gradually over millennia, altering the rates at which carbon (C) is fixed from the atmosphere and stored in the soil. However, legacy impacts of past climates on current soil C stocks are poorly understood. We used data from more than 5000 terrestrial sites from three global and regional data sets to identify the relative importance of current and past (Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene) climatic conditions in regulating soil C stocks in natural and agricultural areas. Paleoclimate always explained a greater amount of the variance in soil C stocks than current climate at regional and global scales. Our results indicate that climatic legacies help determine global soil C stocks in terrestrial ecosystems where agriculture is highly dependent on current climatic conditions. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering how climate legacies influence soil C content, allowing us to improve quantitative predictions of global C stocks under different climatic scenarios.

  10. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I; Araújo, Miguel B

    2008-06-18

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  11. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Townsend Peterson

    Full Text Available Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055 climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  12. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. [National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands)]|[Univ. of Limburg, Maastricht (Netherlands); Niessen, L.W. [National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Jetten, T.H. [Wageningen Agricultural Univ. (Netherlands); McMichael, A.J. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (United Kingdom)

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Fracking in the face of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, P.; Gautier, C.

    2015-12-01

    Until recently, "peak oil" was regarded as imminent. Now, however, the recent rapid increase in US oil and gas production from shale exploitation has delayed peak oil. This delay raises grave climate concerns. The development of new technologies (such as horizontal drilling) means that enormous unconventional reserves distributed worldwide may be readily recoverable, with large negative consequences on the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. If even a small portion of these unconventional reserves were exploited, it is highly likely that limiting global Earth warming to 2ºC, a goal being discussed for COP 21, will be impossible. Instead, tipping points in the climate system will likely be reached, with serious effects, including greatly accelerated ice melting, leading to large and unstoppable global sea level rise. The enthusiasm for shale gas stems in part from its potential role as a bridge fuel to wean the country from coal until low-carbon alternatives come into full play. However, shale gas and oil production entail direct adverse environmental impacts (air and water pollution, induced earthquakes and public health risks) that are only now coming to light. Gas production through fracking also has severe impacts on climate through the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that leaks from production sites. In intensive fracking regions, high methane concentrations are measured on the ground and are now detectable in satellite data. Proponents of gas fracking argue that with the right policies to protect communities and the environment, natural gas can be harnessed as part of a broad climate strategy. But opponents of gas fracking believe that no regulation will be adequate to protect communities and the local environment. They also fear that natural gas produced through fracking will delay progress toward a carbon-free future. We will explore the consequences for the global climate of exploiting these very large oil and gas resources.

  14. Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Global Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hussein, Zekarias; Golub, Alla A.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2012-01-01

    Mitigating the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading environmental policy concerns of the 21st Century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, content and, most importantly, about the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One major contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. This paper provides quantitative evidence on t...

  15. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desbois, M.; Desalmand, F.

    1994-01-01

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  16. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  17. Global PV Market Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, F.

    2009-01-01

    The dawn of 2009 saw several events which caused major turbulence in the global photovoltaic industry. In 2008 the Spanish PV market grew beyond all expectations and even outranked Germany as the world's number one market. However, the promotion scheme was modified and a market cap was introduced in 2009, cutting back the maximum capacity to be installed to about the level of 2007. In addition, the industry is facing an oversupply of PV modules and a harsh recession which is significantly affecting the traditionally strong PV markets. International photovoltaic companies are challenged by a changing market situation: all of a sudden, competition has increased significantly, pushing the customer to the fore. As a result, a consolidation process is expected within the PV industry worldwide. However, the story is not all negative. In the U.S., the election of Barack Obama may be seen as the starting signal for a massive expansion in PV, likely to bring the country to first place globally within the next five years. Furthermore, different markets and market segments are being opened up - especially in Europe - thanks to the gradual arrival of generation parity and new PV support mechanisms. EuPD Research has observed and studied international PV markets since its foundation. The information included in the presentation is based on a wide range of quantitative and qualitative studies that EuPD Research has conducted in the key markets since 2002. Florian Schmidt, EuPD Research's Head of Product Management, will give an overview of the global PV market and how it is developing in this crucial year 2009. Aspects such as technology development, production capacities and the demand side will be included, with a special emphasis on the European PV markets. So far Chinese PV companies have often benefited from the booming PV markets in Europe, above all Germany and Spain. Due to the lack of domestic market, the Chinese industry strongly depends on the export and is

  18. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  19. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group] [and others

    2012-09-15

    vulnerable to climate change impacts. Here we focus on tipping elements within the physical / biological system. In the following two sections, we briefly highlight some of our methodological research regarding global mean precipitation and regional climate change. These methodological developments provided the underpinning for our subsequent analysis of individual large-scale climate impacts, as e.g. mass losses of the Greenland ice sheet, the release of greenhouse gases by the thawing of permafrost regions or the threat of coral reefs by high ocean temperatures.

  20. Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trygve Lavik

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

  1. Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

  2. Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Lake, Iain R.; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food pro...

  3. Global climate change: A U.S. business community's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shales, J.

    1994-01-01

    Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO 2 , the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO 2 greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and the world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  5. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  6. Critical Global Health: Responding to Poverty, Inequality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, David

    2017-01-01

    A recent article by Sol Benatar calls on the global health community to reassess its approach to twin crises of global poverty and climate change. I build on his article by challenging mainstream narratives that claim satisfactory progress in efforts to reduce poverty and improve health for all, and arguing that any eradication of poverty that is consistent with environmental sustainability will require a more explicit emphasis on the redistribution of power and wealth. I suggest that the global health community has been largely socialised into accepting that progress and future solutions can be attained through more neoliberal development, technological advancement and philanthropic endeavour and that a more critical global health is required. I propose three steps that the global health community should take: first, create more space for the social, political and political sciences within global health; second, be more prepared to act politically and challenge power; and third, do more to bridge the global-local divide in recognition of the fact that progressive change requires mobilisation from the bottom-up in conjunction with top-down policy and legislative change. PMID:28949467

  7. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Thuwal, Saudi Arabia. 2Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan. ... decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to .... observations and to use in prediction but are less complex than coupled ...

  8. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  9. Session B4 Management for sustainable use — Global climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The IPCC Third Assessment Report confirms that the evidence for global climate change is now stronger than ever. While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if ...

  10. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  11. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  12. The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

  13. Maize production in terms of global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekavac Goran

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

  14. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    OpenAIRE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  15. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  16. Developing Global Nurse Influencers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spies, Lori A

    2016-01-01

    How can universities create engaged citizens and global leaders? Each year, a select group of advanced practice nursing students at Baylor University Louise Herrington School of Nursing travel to Africa for a month-long clinical mission experience. Students work alongside local and missionary healthcare providers in a comprehensive Christian outreach to the community at a high-volume clinic. Creating rich learning experiences in a global setting in significant and sustainable ways is difficult, but intentionally focusing on what we are called to do and who we serve provides ballast for faculty and students. The success of the trip in preparing students to be global influencers is evident by the work graduates elect to do around the world, following graduation.

  17. Advancement of the climate dual strategy. New concepts for a globally effective climate protection; Weiterentwicklung der baden-wuerttembergischen Klimadoppelstrategie. Neue Konzepte fuer einen global wirksamen Klimaschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-10-15

    The Baden-Wuerttemberg Council on Sustainable Development (Stuttgart, Federal Republic of Germany) presents a climate expert report with new concepts for a globally effective climate protection. First of all, the development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide since 1990 is described. The development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide up to 2050 is forecasted. Four general criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, fairness and acceptance) for a comparative evaluation of climate protection concepts are introduced. A proposal for solution on the basis of a globally effective cap-and-trade system as well as an identical scenario as an alternative with respect to the implementation are described. This alternative scenario is based on a cap-and-trade system but it develops on the basis of national self-commitment in accordance with an incentive and sanctionative system. Both implementation proposals are compared. Recommendations of the national government Baden-Wuerttemberg are given.

  18. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  19. Development and the global environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1992-01-01

    The development of the Third World and the protection of the environment are two major global problems interconnected by energy - the motor of economic growth and the main cause of deterioration of the global environment. They can no longer be separated. The threats of ozone, acid rain, and global warming are global in scope and solutions must involve energy consumption, conservations, and renewable resources. The precept that development should hinge on sound management of natural resources and the environment no longer has merely local or regional significance. It is a global concern and each person should feel a sense of ethical commitment as a world citizen

  20. Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

    2017-12-01

    Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more

  1. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  2. National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, K.H.

    2006-01-01

    question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited......This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...

  3. Arctic climate change with a 2C global warming. Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, J.O.; New, M.

    2006-01-01

    The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 106 km 2 or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra

  4. Climate change and global carbon cycle: Perspectives and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppel, Carolyn D.; Pohlman, John W.

    2008-01-01

    The relevance of methane hydrates research to broader societal themes is often framed in terms of methane’s role in the global carbon cycle and its potential contribution to future climate change. To date, investigations of these fundamental issues have remained largely disconnected from applied studies focused on locating natural gas hydrate deposits, developing production technologies, and analyzing and mitigating hydrate-related geohazards. The 2005 reauthorization of the 2000 Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act provides broad latitude for better integration of applied and basic research related to methane hydrates, the carbon cycle, and climate change through its direction “to assess and to mitigate the environmental impact of hydrate degassing.” This mandate includes sponsoring research that evaluates whether methane hydrate degassing triggered by either natural or anthropogenic perturbations will (1) contribute to global climate change and (2) release significant quantities of currently sequestered carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. This article provides an overview of progress and challenges in these areas and sets the stage for future research on related issues under the auspices of the Methane Hydrate Act.

  5. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  6. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  7. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

    OpenAIRE

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, ...

  8. Globalization, Development and Human Security

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Ștefanachi

    2011-01-01

    The conjunction between globalization, development and human security is absolutely necessary and extremely useful to understand and to explain the contemporary space of international relations. The globalization process, even more obvious after the end of Cold War, offers the conditions to define human development and human security, focusing on the normative priority of the impact of policies on the individual. The international space, transformed under the pressure of globalization, become...

  9. Prototype Mcs Parameterization for Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncrieff, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    Excellent progress has been made with observational, numerical and theoretical studies of MCS processes but the parameterization of those processes remain in a dire state and are missing from GCMs. The perceived complexity of the distribution, type, and intensity of organized precipitation systems has arguably daunted attention and stifled the development of adequate parameterizations. TRMM observations imply links between convective organization and large-scale meteorological features in the tropics and subtropics that are inadequately treated by GCMs. This calls for improved physical-dynamical treatment of organized convection to enable the next-generation of GCMs to reliably address a slew of challenges. The multiscale coherent structure parameterization (MCSP) paradigm is based on the fluid-dynamical concept of coherent structures in turbulent environments. The effects of vertical shear on MCS dynamics implemented as 2nd baroclinic convective heating and convective momentum transport is based on Lagrangian conservation principles, nonlinear dynamical models, and self-similarity. The prototype MCS parameterization, a minimalist proof-of-concept, is applied in the NCAR Community Climate Model, Version 5.5 (CAM 5.5). The MCSP generates convectively coupled tropical waves and large-scale precipitation features notably in the Indo-Pacific warm-pool and Maritime Continent region, a center-of-action for weather and climate variability around the globe.

  10. Stormy weather: 101 solutions to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dauncey, G.; Mazza, P.

    2001-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to energy efficiency measures that would rid the world of the threat of global warming caused by the wasteful use of hydrocarbon fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The actions to be taken are not directed to governments and industry alone; indeed, the change must involve every segment of society to be effective. Accordingly, the book recommends actions that could be taken by individuals, citizen organizations, municipalities, businesses and organizations, energy companies, automobile companies, states and provinces, national governments, developing nations and global solutions. The recommendations range from choosing energy efficient appliances and buying green power, through increased recycling, reuse and reduced consumption, building solar and other renewable energy capacity, using sustainable fuels in automobiles, introducing tax measures favouring energy efficiency and sustainable development, to launching macro-level plans for a global green deal, establishing a global climate fund, accelerating the phase-out of CHCs, HCFCs and HFCs, forming a global ecological alliance and declaring a century of ecological restoration. Bibliographic notes, illustrations

  11. Globalization, Migration and Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George, Susan

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishMigration may become the most important branch of demography in the earlydecades of the new millennium in a rapidly globalizing world. This paper discusses the causes, costsand benefits of international migration to countries of the South and North, and key issues of commonconcern. International migration is as old as national boundaries, though its nature, volume,direction, causes and consequences have changed. The causes of migration are rooted in the rate ofpopulation growth and the proportion of youth in the population, their education and training,employment opportunities, income differentials in society, communication and transportationfacilities, political freedom and human rights and level of urbanization. Migration benefits the Souththrough remittances of migrants, improves the economic welfare of the population (particularly womenof South countries generally, increases investment, and leads to structural changes in the economy.However, emigration from the South has costs too, be they social or caused by factors such as braindrain. The North also benefits by migration through enhancement of economic growth, development ofnatural resources, improved employment prospects, social development and through exposure toimmigrants' new cultures and lifestyles. Migration also has costs to the North such as of immigrantintegration, a certain amount of destabilization of the economy, illegal immigration, and socialproblems of discrimination and exploitation. Issues common to both North and South include impact onprivate investment, trade, international cooperation, and sustainable development. Both North andSouth face a dilemma in seeking an appropriate balance between importing South's labour or itsproducts and exporting capital and technology from the North.FrenchLa migration est sans doute devenue la partie la plus importante de la démographie des premières décennies du nouveau millénaire dans un monde qui change rapidement. Ce

  12. United States policy for mitigating global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, P.; Kane, R.; Kildow, J.

    1998-01-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to explain current US policy on global climate change. US Department of Energy (DOE) efforts to implement this policy are described. A secondary objective of this paper is to discuss from a US perspective the social and political efforts which must be initiated in order for ocean storage of CO 2 to be considered as a viable CO 2 mitigation option. The fact that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has not been successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now recognized. Thus, US policy has shifted towards the development of binding medium-term emissions targets and long-term atmosphere concentration goals. The US believes these goals can be accomplished through the adoption of cost-effective joint implementation agreements and international emissions trading mechanisms. Studies are currently underway to assess specific targets and timetables for emissions reductions. Voluntary efforts on the part of US industry have proven to be extremely successful in reducing US CO 2 -emissions. The US electric utility industry has taken the lead in voluntarily lowering greenhouse gas emissions under the DOE Climate Challenge Program. Areas of research interest to DOE include the development of high efficiency advanced power generation cycles and CO 2 sequestration technology. The US currently spends $1.6 billion on understanding global climate phenomena and only $1.6 million on CO 2 mitigation research. A number of socio-political considerations must be looked at in assessing the feasibility of ocean storage of CO 2 . Developing public trust appears to be a major concern in establishing the acceptability of ocean storage. Uncertainties in the effects of CO 2 on marine life, potential safety hazards associated with pipelining, and ship transport of CO 2 are all issues which must be dealt with as soon as possible. Some hidden costs associated with ocean disposal is also discussed

  13. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  14. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  16. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic......Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...

  17. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  18. Scientist's Perceptions of Uncertainty During Discussions of Global Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanello, S.; Fortner, R.; Dervin, B.

    2003-04-01

    This research examines the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists during discussions of global climate change. In particular, it explores whether the disagreements between natural and social scientists are related to the ontological, epistemological, or methodological nature of the uncertainty of global climate change during these discussions. A purposeful sample of 30 natural and social scientists recognized as experts in global climate change by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and National Academies Committee on Global Change were interviewed to elicit their perceptions of disagreements during their three most troublesome discussions on global climate change. A mixed-method (qualitative plus quantitative research) approach with three independent variables was used to explore nature of uncertainty as a mediating variable in the relationships between academic training, level of sureness, level of knowledge, and position on global climate change, and the nature of disagreements and bridging strategies of natural and social scientists (Patton, 1997; Frechtling et al., 1997). This dissertation posits that it is the differences in the nature of uncertainty communicated by natural and social scientists and not sureness, knowledge, and position on global climate change that causes disagreements between the groups. By describing the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists and illuminating bridging techniques scientists use during these disagreements, it is hoped that information collected from this research will create a better dialogue between the scientists studying global climate change by providing communication strategies which will allow those versed in one particular area to speak to non-experts whether they be other scientists, media officials, or the public. These tangible strategies can then be used by government agencies to create better communications and education plans, which can

  19. DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    1995-05-02

    May 2, 1995 ... Mr. Ossa has written on exchange rate policies, export diversification, industrial development and external debt of developing countries. ...... I think most people would agree that the World Bank, for example, should not only finance governments but should directly finance the private sector in developing ...

  20. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  1. Land-use change and global climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitz, V.

    2004-03-01

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  2. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  3. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  4. Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate

  5. Global health equity and climate stabilisation: a common agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friel, Sharon; Marmot, Michael; McMichael, Anthony J; Kjellstrom, Tord; Vågerö, Denny

    2008-11-08

    Although health has improved for many people, the extent of health inequities between and within countries is growing. Meanwhile, humankind is disrupting the global climate and other life-supporting environmental systems, thereby creating serious risks for health and wellbeing, especially in vulnerable populations but ultimately for everybody. Underlying determinants of health inequity and environmental change overlap substantially; they are signs of an economic system predicated on asymmetric growth and competition, shaped by market forces that mostly disregard health and environmental consequences rather than by values of fairness and support. A shift is needed in priorities in economic development towards healthy forms of urbanisation, more efficient and renewable energy sources, and a sustainable and fairer food system. Global interconnectedness and interdependence enable the social and environmental determinants of health to be addressed in ways that will increase health equity, reduce poverty, and build societies that live within environmental limits.

  6. Climate resilient urban development : why responsible land governance is important

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mitchell, D.; Enemark, S.; van der Molen, P.

    2015-01-01

    In less-developed countries, the major global pressures of rapid urbanization and climate change are resulting in increased vulnerability for urban dwellers. Much of the climate impact is concentrated in urban and coastal areas, as urban development spreads into areas that are hazard-prone. Often

  7. Development assistance and climate finance

    OpenAIRE

    Arndt, Channing

    2015-01-01

    The distinction between development assistance and climate finance is driven by an optic of compensation largely derived from the 'polluter pays' principle. For practical as well as conceptual reasons, this principle provides a weak basis for climate finance. The distinction also cuts against the need to holistically consider developmental, adaptation, and mitigation policies and naturally focuses on government-to-government flows despite the manifest need to catalyse non-official sources of ...

  8. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pumphrey, Carolyn

    2008-01-01

    .... But this notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the 20th century, the scientific community gradually came to terms with this theory and began to regard climate change even rapid climate change as more than a distant possibility...

  9. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  10. Globalization, Development and Human Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Ștefanachi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The conjunction between globalization, development and human security is absolutely necessary and extremely useful to understand and to explain the contemporary space of international relations. The globalization process, even more obvious after the end of Cold War, offers the conditions to define human development and human security, focusing on the normative priority of the impact of policies on the individual. The international space, transformed under the pressure of globalization, becomes relevant in the extent that an alternative discourse that encompasses all these transformations comes out. This new narration transforms the individual in the referent object of development and security, as well.

  11. Global climate change attitudes and perceptions among south American zoo visitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luebke, Jerry F; Clayton, Susan; Kelly, Lisa-Anne DeGregoria; Grajal, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    There is a substantial gap between the scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change and the human response to this evidence. Perceptions of and responses to climate change can differ among regions of the world, as well as within countries. Therefore, information about the public's attitudes and perceptions related to climate change is essential to the development of relevant educational resources. In the present study, zoo visitors in four South American countries responded to a questionnaire regarding their attitudes and perceptions toward global climate change. Results indicated that most respondents are already highly concerned about global climate change and are interested in greater engagement in pro-environmental behaviors. Visitors also perceive various obstacles to engagement in climate change mitigation behaviors. We discuss the results of our study in terms of addressing visitors' climate change attitudes and perceptions within the social and emotional context of zoo settings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  13. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The threat of global environmental change has tended to focus on the possible impacts of a changing environment on agriculture and the implications for global food security. From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale ...

  14. Book Review: Climate Justice: Case Studies in Global and Regional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Book Title: Climate Justice: Case Studies in Global and Regional Governance Challenges. Book Author: Randall S. Abate (Ed.) Environmental Law Institute Washington DC 2016. ISBN 978-1-58576-181-4 ...

  15. Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciardini, Virginia; Contessa, Gian Marco; Falsaperla, Rosaria; Gómez-Amo, José Luis; Meloni, Daniela; Monteleone, Francesco; Pace, Giandomenico; Piacentino, Salvatore; Sferlazzo, Damiano; di Sarra, Alcide

    2016-01-01

    Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications. Regional climate changes impact health and ecosystems, creating new risks, determined not only by weather events, but also by changing exposures and vulnerabilities. These issues, and in particular those regarding occupational safety, have not been sufficiently addressed to date.

  16. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  17. Disability and global development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durocher, Joan; Lord, Janet; Defranco, Allison

    2012-07-01

    The United States invests billions of taxpayer dollars each year into foreign assistance programs that foster international diplomacy and development directed toward improving the quality of life for people around the world. These programs develop economies and combat poverty, promote democracy and governance, build new infrastructure, advance and protect human rights, among other development goals. The United States cannot effectively accomplish the goals of foreign assistance programs unless it undertakes measures to ensure that the programs are accessible to and inclusive of people with disabilities. The United States has been a leader in advancing the rights of people with disabilities and must continue to promote disability rights through its international development work. Overseas economic development will not be successful unless people with disabilities are included. Because of the significant number of people with disabilities in developing countries, if they are not included, the very economic growth the United States is trying to foster will be hindered. The goals of democracy and governance programs cannot be achieved without the inclusion of people with disabilities. In many countries, domestic law contains blatant discriminatory provisions for people with disabilities that undermine access to justice and full participation in society. The provisions that discriminate against people with disabilities include arbitrary exclusions in electoral codes, sweeping plenary guardianship laws with no due-process protections, discriminatory banking practices, and inaccessible court proceedings. National disability legal frameworks remain underdeveloped throughout the world. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

  19. Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2014-03-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

  20. U.S. insurance industry perspectives on global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mills, Evan

    2001-01-01

    The insurance industry stands to be impacted by global climate change, and also has considerable opportunity for participating in mitigation and adaptation. Weather-related events touch almost all types of insurance providers, although the degree of vulnerability varies substantially. U.S. insurers currently pay 60% of global losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, and these types of losses are expected to rise as a result of climate change. The effects of increased losses can lead ...

  1. Globalization, Migration and Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Samuel

    2002-12-01

    exploitation. Issues common to both North and South include impact on private investment, trade, international cooperation, and sustainable development. Both North and South face a dilemma in seeking an appropriate balance between importing South’s labour or its products and exporting capital and technology from the North.

  2. Global Warming, Climate Change and Glacier Retreat of Nepal Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, S.; Hisaki, Y.

    2007-12-01

    Global average air temperature near the earth surface rose 0.74¡¾0.18¨¬C during the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that observed increased globally averaged temperatures since mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increment in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Climate models referred by IPCC project that global surface temperature are likely to be increase by 1.1 to 6.4¨¬C between 1990 and 2100. An increase in global temperature is expected to cause other changes including glacier retreat, sea level rise, increase intensity of extreme weather events and change in the pattern of precipitation, etc. The Nepal Himalaya revealed 3,252 glaciers and 2,323 lakes, which are 3,500 m above the sea level. They cover an area of 5,323 km2 with an estimated ice reserve of 481 km3. The average temperature in Nepal is rising by 0.5¨¬C per decade, and because of this reason, big glacial lakes in the country are at high risk of flooding from glacial lake bursts, which would have an adverse effect, such as huge loss of life and property. Nepal is facing a disturbance in mountain climate, flash floods, cloudbursts, erratic weather patterns and so on. The death of number of people due to floods and landslides is increasing annually. It is reported that more than 164 people already died because of floods and landslides during the current year, 2007 rainy season. Nepal does emit negligible greenhouse gases compare to developed and industrialized countries, however, country and people are facing the consequences of actions of other developed and industrialized countries. Study shows the¡¡disasters in current years and possible hazards in future due to the probable causes of global warming and recommends some suggestions for controlling of green house gases emission.

  3. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  4. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  5. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  6. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  7. Development and validation of an experimental life support system for assessing the effects of global climate change and environmental contamination on estuarine and coastal marine benthic communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Rocha, Rui J M; Pires, Ana C C; Ladeiro, Bruno; Castanheira, José M; Costa, Rodrigo; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Ribeiro, Rui; Pereira, Ruth; Lopes, Isabel; Marques, Catarina; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Calado, Ricardo; Cleary, Daniel F R; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-08-01

    An experimental life support system (ELSS) was constructed to study the interactive effects of multiple stressors on coastal and estuarine benthic communities, specifically perturbations driven by global climate change and anthropogenic environmental contamination. The ELSS allows researchers to control salinity, pH, temperature, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), tidal rhythms and exposure to selected contaminants. Unlike most microcosms previously described, our system enables true independent replication (including randomization). In addition to this, it can be assembled using commercially available materials and equipment, thereby facilitating the replication of identical experimental setups in different geographical locations. Here, we validate the reproducibility and environmental quality of the system by comparing chemical and biological parameters recorded in our ELSS with those prevalent in the natural environment. Water, sediment microbial community and ragworm (the polychaete Hediste diversicolor) samples were obtained from four microcosms after 57 days of operation. In general, average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3 (-) ; NH4 (+) and PO4 (-3) ) in the water column of the ELSS experimental control units were within the range of concentrations recorded in the natural environment. While some shifts in bacterial community composition were observed between in situ and ELSS sediment samples, the relative abundance of most metabolically active bacterial taxa appeared to be stable. In addition, ELSS operation did not significantly affect survival, oxidative stress and neurological biomarkers of the model organism Hediste diversicolor. The validation data indicate that this system can be used to assess independent or interactive effects of climate change and environmental contamination on benthic communities. Researchers will be able to simulate the effects of these stressors on processes driven by microbial communities, sediment and seawater

  8. Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

    2014-12-01

    The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

  9. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  10. Global climate change and California agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  11. The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey E. Rustad

    2008-01-01

    Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and...

  12. Globalization and local development

    OpenAIRE

    Boisier, Sergio; Canzanelli, Giancarlo

    2008-01-01

    In the debate about the role of the local level for economic development, “globalists” and “territorialists” stand face-to-face in defending their positions. In any case, the importance of the local dimension cannot be underestimated, considering its capacity to resolve production crises, to convert the industrial sector and to create employment possibilities through concerted actions between different actors to achieve shared outcomes, local innovation, enhancement of diversities and optimis...

  13. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  15. Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esty, Daniel C; Bell, Michelle L

    2018-04-01

    In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.

  16. Climate change mitigation: Deposing global warming potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Alissa

    2014-05-01

    Accounting for time-dependent mechanisms in greenhouse gas radiative forcing and evaluating the performance of mitigation technologies in the context of climate stabilization targets can better inform technology choices today and in the future.

  17. Development of an indicator system for the German action plan to global climate change (DAS); Entwicklung eines Indikatorensystems fuer die Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie an den Klimawandel (DAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Nickel, Darla [Ecologic gGmbH Institut fuer Internationale und Europaeische Umweltpolitik, Berlin (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS: Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie) (BUNDESREGIERUNG 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and foremost, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide guidance for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in the process. The Strategy is divided into 13 action fields and two cross-sectional fields (=14+15). (1) Human health (2) Building sector (3) Water regime, water management, coastal and marine protection (4) Soil (5) Biological diversity (6) Agriculture (7) Woodland and forestry (8) Fishery (9) Energy industry (conversion, transport and supply) (10) Financial services industry (11) Transport, transport infrastructure (12) Trade and industry (13) Tourism industry (14) Spatial, regional and physical development planning (15) Civil protection. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and implement the DAS. This will be made available for download from www.anpassung.net. An integral part of this will be the 'Tatenbank' (www.tatenbank.anpassung.net), the 'Klimalotse' (www.klimalotse.anpassung.net), FISKA (special information system 'Adaptation') and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far as the Indicator System is concerned, it has been decided to prepare a Report on Indicators for the challenges facing Germany and the

  18. Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:

    OpenAIRE

    Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald; Robertson, Richard; Funes, Jose; Verner, Dorte

    2011-01-01

    There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for d...

  19. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  20. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

    2017-08-01

    Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

  1. Australian Medical Students' Association Global Health Essay Competition - Global climate change, geo-engineering and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyages, Costa S

    2013-10-07

    Rio+20's proposed Sustainable Development Goals have the potential to redefine the course of international action on climate change. They recognise that environmental health is inextricably linked with human health, and that environmental sustainability is of paramount importance in safeguarding global health. Competition entrants were asked to discuss ways of making global health a central component of international sustainable development initiatives and environmental policy, using one or two concrete examples

  2. Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, C.

    2017-12-01

    Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

  3. Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waha, K.; Bussel, van L.G.J.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.

    2012-01-01

    Aim To simulate the sowing dates of 11 major annual crops at the global scale at high spatial resolution, based on climatic conditions and crop-specific temperature requirements. Location Global. Methods Sowing dates under rainfed conditions are simulated deterministically based on a set of rules

  4. Fighting windmills? EU industrial interest and global climate negotiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steiner Brand, U.; Tinggaard Svendsen, G.

    2003-01-01

    Why has the EU been so eager to continue the climate negotiations? Can it be solely attributed to the EU feeling morally obliged to be the main initiator of continued progress on the climate change negotiations, or can industrial interests in the EU, at least partly, explain the behaviour of the EU? We suggest that the EU has a rational economic interest in forcing the technological development of renewable energy sources to get a fast-mover advantage, which will only pay if a sufficient number of countries implement sufficiently stringent GHG reductions. The Kyoto Protocol, which imposes binding reductions on 38 OECD countries, implies that, as a first-mover, the EU will be to sell the necessary new renewable technologies, most prominently wind mills, to other countries, when they ratify and implement the Kyoto target levels. In the latest EU proposal made in Johannesburg, the EU pushed for setting a target of 15% of all energy to come from sources such as windmills, solar panels and waves by 2015. Such a target would further the EU's interests globally, and could explain, in economic terms, why the EU eagerly promotes GHG trade at a global level whereas the US has left the Kyoto agreement to save the import costs of buying the EU's renewable systems. (au)

  5. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  6. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  7. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtel, Michael M.; Scheve, Kenneth F.

    2013-01-01

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation—costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement—affect individuals’ willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals’ beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements. PMID:23886666

  8. Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. The rise and fall of the global climate polity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited to engine......Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited...... or ‘Danelaw’ – a power structure in northern and eastern England in the ninth and tenth centuries – have come and gone. It is too early to write the definitive story of ‘the rise and fall’ of the global climate polity, but this chapter makes a start by considering the bigger picture of a climate polity, what...

  10. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  11. Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riahi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

  12. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available...... studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a metadatabase of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected......, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change...

  13. Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitz, V

    2004-03-15

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  14. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Grecequet

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

  15. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  16. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  17. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  18. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  19. The global effects of subglobal climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Fischer, Carolyn; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2010-01-01

    Individual countries are in the process of legislating responses to the challenges posed by climate change. The prospect of rising carbon prices raises concerns in these nations about the effects on the competitiveness of their own energy-intensive industries and the potential for carbon leakage,

  20. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  1. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  2. Global wind power development: Economics and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Cornelis van Kooten, G.; Narbel, Patrick A.

    2013-01-01

    Existing literature indicates that theoretically, the earth's wind energy supply potential significantly exceeds global energy demand. Yet, only 2–3% of global electricity demand is currently derived from wind power despite 27% annual growth in wind generating capacity over the last 17 years. More than 95% of total current wind power capacity is installed in the developed countries plus China and India. Our analysis shows that the economic competitiveness of wind power varies at wider range across countries or locations. A climate change damage cost of US$20/tCO 2 imposed to fossil fuels would make onshore wind competitive to all fossil fuels for power generation; however, the same would not happen to offshore wind, with few exceptions, even if the damage cost is increased to US$100/tCO 2 . To overcome a large number of technical, financial, institutional, market and other barriers to wind power, many countries have employed various policy instruments, including capital subsidies, tax incentives, tradable energy certificates, feed-in tariffs, grid access guarantees and mandatory standards. Besides, climate change mitigation policies, such as the Clean Development Mechanism, have played a pivotal role in promoting wind power. Despite these policies, intermittency, the main technical constraint, could remain as the major challenge to the future growth of wind power. - Highlights: • Global wind energy potential is enormous, yet the wind energy contribution is very small. • Existing policies are boosting development of wind power. • Costs of wind energy are higher than cost of fossil-based energies. • Reasonable premiums for climate change mitigation substantially promote wind power. • Intermittency is the key challenge to future development of wind power

  3. A Kantian approach to a sustainable development indicator for climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greaker, Mads; Stoknes, Per Espen; Alfsen, Knut H.; Ericson, Torgeir

    2012-11-01

    How can the informed citizen know if the government is implementing a good-enough climate change policy? Most developed democracies have their own set of indicators for sustainable development, including indicators for climate change. These include yearly national emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), global concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and time series for global temperatures. However, without some kind of benchmark neither national emissions of GHGs nor global concentration of GHGs or temperatures, make it possible for the general public to evaluate the current climate policy of a nation state. In this paper we propose a benchmark for national climate policy based on a remaining Co2 budget allocated by egalitarian principles. Moreover, based on Kantian ethics we argue that this benchmark should be used as a sustainable development indicator for climate change. One way of interpreting Kantian ethics is to demand that each nation state should act as if a just global treaty on climate change were in place. We discuss possible important elements in a global treaty, and show how the different elements can be integrated in a forward-looking indicator of national climate policy.(auth)

  4. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  5. Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

  6. Global Climate Model Scenarios for Precipitation in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlfeld, D.

    2005-12-01

    Global and regional climate models are valuable tools for assessing the impacts of alternate greenhouse emission scenarios on future climate. In recent years, the number of models available has increased and the sophistication of these models has generally improved. Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made model output from a range of global climate models available through the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. A comparison is made between observed and predicted precipitation from 18 global climate models for the period 1979 to 2000 in three regions of North America using monthly averaged output of the 20C3M experiment (climate of the 20th century) and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. Precipitation averaged over monthly, seasonal and annual time periods is considered. The three regions encompass western, central and eastern North America excluding Alaska, northern Canada and Latin America. Most models compare well with observed precipitation for the central and eastern regions at all time scales. Discrepancies between model results and observed precipitation are generally smallest in summer and fall seasons. For the western region, models are less successful in comparison to observed precipitation. A subset of models, those deemed to be most successful at reproducing observed precipitation, are used to analyze the impact of various greenhouse gas emission scenarios (including the Commit and SRESB1 experiments) on precipitation in the mid- and late-21st century.

  7. Global warming /climate change: Involving students using local example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isiorho, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    The current political climate has made it apparent that the general public does not believe in global warming. Also, there appears to be some confusion between global warming and climate change; global warming is one aspect of climate change. Most scientists believe there is climate change and global warming, although, there is still doubt among students on global warming. Some upper level undergraduate students are required to conduct water level/temperature measurements as part of their course grade. In addition to students having their individual projects, the various classes also utilize a well field within a wetland on campus to conduct group projects. Twelve wells in the well field on campus are used regularly by students to measure the depth of groundwater, the temperature of the waters and other basic water chemistry parameters like pH, conductivity and total dissolved solid (TDS) as part of the class group project. The data collected by each class is added to data from previous classes. Students work together as a group to interpret the data. More than 100 students have participated in this venture for more than 10 years of the four upper level courses: hydrogeology, environmental and urban geology, environmental conservation and wetlands. The temperature trend shows the seasonal variation as one would expect, but it also shows an upward trend (warming). These data demonstrate a change in climate and warming. Thus, the students participated in data collection, learn to write report and present their result to their peers in the classrooms.

  8. Climate Objectives and Development: Promoting Convergence between Millennium and Climate Goals in Climate Negotiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine

    2015-01-01

    The next Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in France in late 2015. The aim of the gathering will be to arrive at an international agreement to keep global warming below an upper limit of 2 deg. C (above 1990 levels) by the end of the century. As the COPs of recent years have shown, this is an ambitious goal and many obstacles stand in its way, among them the development of emerging and developing nations. Why should these countries be forced to restrict their economic development when 'liability for climate change' rests mainly with the developed nations? The question is entirely legitimate, which is why it would probably be more constructive, as Sandrine Mathy advocates here, to negotiate in a way that combines thinking on Millennium Development Goals with climate objectives. As this article shows, it is entirely possible to combine these two types of aim and promote economic development and poverty reduction while, at the same time, striving to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Mathy shows what the common factors are and frames concrete recommendations for establishing a mechanism to promote this convergence between poverty reduction and climate preservation. (author)

  9. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  10. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  11. Global climate: Methane contribution to greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metalli, P.

    1992-01-01

    The global atmospheric concentration of methane greatly contributes to the severity of the greenhouse effect. It has been estimated that this concentration, due mainly to human activities, is growing at the rate of roughly 1.1% per year. Environmental scientists suggest that a reduction, even as small as 10%, in global methane emissions would be enough to curtail the hypothetical global warning scenarios forecasted for the up-coming century. Through the recovery of methane from municipal and farm wastes, as well as, through the control of methane leaks and dispersions in coal mining and petrochemical processes, substantial progress towards the abatement of greenhouse gas effects could be achieved without having to resort to economically detrimental limitations on the use of fossil fuels

  12. Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

  13. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

  14. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  15. Global Climate Exchange: Peer collaboration in a “Global classroom”

    OpenAIRE

    Korsager, Majken; Jorde, Doris; Slotta, Jim

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on student peer collaboration in an online environment in an international shared curriculum, the Global Climate Exchange. Four cohorts of students (age 16 -19) from Canada, China, Norway and Sweden (n=157) were engaged in four wiki-based activities where they collaborated with peers locally and internationally. Previously, impact from Global Climate Exchange on students’ conceptual understanding was analysed, indicating a positive impact which might be explained by the amo...

  16. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Riedy, Chris; Herriman, Jade

    2011-01-01

    On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews). WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15) in December 2009. In this paper, we examine t...

  17. Thirteen Plus One. A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldy, J.E.; Barrett, S.; Stavins, R.N.

    2003-07-01

    We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is t oo little, too fast ; developing countries should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance

  18. Thirteen plus one. A comparison of global climate policy architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldy, Joseph E.; Barrett, Scott; Stavins, Robert N.

    2003-01-01

    We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is 'too little, too fast'; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance

  19. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  20. Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

    2012-10-01

    Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.

    2016-08-01

    The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

  2. Global Development Network: Supporting Global Research Capacity

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    GDN's capacity-building objective is being strengthened through their Global Research Capacity Building program, which provides up to six years of direct support for collaborative and cross-disciplinary research through regional competitions. This increased focus on capacity building enhances the commonalities with ...

  3. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  4. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  5. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  6. Uncertainty and learning in a strategic environment. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change is rife with uncertainties. Yet, we can expect to resolve much of this uncertainty in the next 100 years or so. Therefore, current actions should reflect the value of flexibility. Nevertheless, most models of climate change, particularly game-theoretic models, abstract from uncertainty. A model of the impacts of uncertainty and learning in a non-cooperative game shows that the level of correlation of damages across countries is crucial for determining optimal policy

  7. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

  8. Estonia in the system of global climate change. Publication 4/1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Punning, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Estonia is among the countries who signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at the UN Conference in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The FCCC calls on its parties to inventory national sources, to reduction in greenhouse gases and to development of projects responding to climate change. In 1994, an Estonian Country Study Project was initiated within the U.S. Country Studies Program. The Estonian Country Study Project is comprehensive, covering all sectors and directions of activity in Estonia that might impact climate change or be influenced by Global Climate Change. This book contains a collection of papers, covering the aims of the Estonian Country Study Project

  9. Using Argumentation to Foster Learning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2012-12-01

    Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

  10. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  11. Global soil-climate-biome diagram: linking soil properties to climate and biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X.; Yang, Y.; Fang, J.

    2017-12-01

    As a critical component of the Earth system, soils interact strongly with both climate and biota and provide fundamental ecosystem services that maintain food, climate, and human security. Despite significant progress in digital soil mapping techniques and the rapidly growing quantity of observed soil information, quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale remain unclear. By compiling a large global soil database, we mapped seven major soil properties (bulk density [BD]; sand, silt and clay fractions; soil pH; soil organic carbon [SOC] density [SOCD]; and soil total nitrogen [STN] density [STND]) based on machine learning algorithms (regional random forest [RF] model) and quantitatively assessed the linkage between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale. Our results demonstrated a global soil-climate-biome diagram, which improves our understanding of the strong correspondence between soils, climate and biomes. Soil pH decreased with greater mean annual precipitation (MAP) and lower mean annual temperature (MAT), and the critical MAP for the transition from alkaline to acidic soil pH decreased with decreasing MAT. Specifically, the critical MAP ranged from 400-500 mm when the MAT exceeded 10 °C but could decrease to 50-100 mm when the MAT was approximately 0 °C. SOCD and STND were tightly linked; both increased in accordance with lower MAT and higher MAP across terrestrial biomes. Global stocks of SOC and STN were estimated to be 788 ± 39.4 Pg (1015 g, or billion tons) and 63 ± 3.3 Pg in the upper 30-cm soil layer, respectively, but these values increased to 1654 ± 94.5 Pg and 133 ± 7.8 Pg in the upper 100-cm soil layer, respectively. These results reveal quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale, suggesting co-evolution of the soil, climate and biota under conditions of global environmental change.

  12. Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases

  13. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  14. Can global chemistry-climate models reproduce air quality extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, J.; Prather, M. J.; Holmes, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    We identify and characterize extreme ozone pollution episodes over the USA and EU through a novel analysis of ten years (2000-2010) of surface ozone measurements. An optimal interpolation scheme is developed to create grid-cell averaged values of surface ozone that can be compared with gridded model simulations. In addition, it also allows a comparison of two non-coincident observational networks in the EU. The scheme incorporates techniques borrowed from inverse distance weighting and Kriging. It uses all representative observational site data while still recognizing the heterogeneity of surface ozone. Individual, grid-cell level events are identified as an exceedance of historical percentile (10 worst days in a year, 97.3 percentile). A clustering algorithm is then used to construct the ozone episodes from the individual events. We then test the skill of the high-resolution (100 km) two-year (2005-2006) hindcast from the UCI global chemistry transport model in reproducing the events/episodes identified in the observations using the same identification criteria. Although the UCI CTM has substantial biases in surface ozone, we find that it has considerable skill in reproducing both individual grid-cell level extreme events and their connectedness in space and time with an overall skill of 24% (32%) for the US (EU). The grid-cell level extreme ozone events in both the observations and UCI CTM are found to occur mostly (~75%) in coherent, multi-day, connected episodes covering areas greater than 1000 x 1000 square km. In addition the UCI CTM has greater skill in reproducing these larger episodes. We conclude that even at relatively coarse resolution, global chemistry-climate models can be used to project major synoptic pollution episodes driven by large-scale climate and chemistry changes even with their known biases.

  15. The BRICS on climate change global governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Leal Rinaldi

    2016-12-01

    Este artigo objetiva avaliar a evolução da posição do BRICS na governança global sobre mudança climática. Discute-se as implicações desse posicionamento para o papel do grupo neste tema. A partir da análise dos principais regimes e acordos, argumentamos que embora haja a disposição de agir nos fóruns multilaterais, eles enfrentam uma série de constrangimentos que dificultam a adoção de uma posição comum.

  16. Using Updated Climate Accounting to Slow Global Warming Before 2035

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, T.

    2015-12-01

    The current and projected worsening of climate impacts make clear the urgency of limiting the global mean temperature to 2°C over preindustrial levels. But while mitigation policy today may slow global warming at the end of the century, it will not keep global warming within these limits. This failure arises in large part from the climate accounting system used to inform this policy, which does not factor in several scientific findings from the last two decades, including: The urgent need to slow global warming before 2035. This can postpone the time the +1.5°C limit is passed, and is the only way to avoid the most serious long-term climate disruptions. That while it may mitigate warming by the end of the century, reducing emissions of CO2 alone, according to UNEP/WMO[1], will do "little to mitigate warming over the next 20-30 years," and "may temporarily enhance near-term warming as sulfate [cooling] is reduced." That the only emissions reductions that can slow warming before 2035 are focused on short-lived climate pollutants. A small increase in current mitigation funding could fund these projects, the most promising of which target emissions in regional climate "hot spots" like the Arctic and India.[2] To ensure policies can effectively slow global warming before 2035, a new climate accounting system is needed. Such an updated system is being standardized in the USA,[3] and has been proposed for use in ISO standards. The key features of this updated system are: consideration of all climate pollutants and their multi-faceted climate effects; use of time horizons which prioritize mitigation of near-term warming; a consistent and accurate accounting for "biogenic" CO2; protocols ensuring that new scientific findings are incorporated; and a distinct accounting for emissions affecting regional "hot spots". This accounting system also considers environmental impacts outside of climate change, a feature necessary to identify "win-win" projects with climate benefits

  17. Outstanding challenges limiting the development of climate services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, Carlo; Soares, Marta Bruno; Liggins, Felicity

    2016-04-01

    Climate services attempt to make the available (or forthcoming) climate knowledge more usable by decision and policy makers in the development of a climate smart society. Since the launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services in 2009 there has been an exponential increase in investment in the development and delivery of climate services, leading to an array of projects and initiatives across Europe. However, to date little attention has been given to understanding the different ways in which climate services are defined, implemented, and evaluated in Europe. In addition, other aspects such as how to pursue the necessary processes of co-production, which business models to apply, and the implications for the careers of scientists and others involved in the development of climate services are also crucial elements that need to be further examined and discussed. Such aspects are critical to the future development of climate services as they have the potential to significantly constrain the growth of climate services in Europe. Starting from a set of questions that have arisen within some of the most prominent climate services projects and initiatives in Europe, our paper highlights and expands on the outstanding challenges that need to be resolved by both the scientific community and the funders in order to ensure climate services can prosper and grow in Europe.

  18. The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

  19. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  20. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  1. Likely impact of global warming on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topping, J.

    1992-01-01

    Over the last couple of years there has been mounting evidence that the human costs of rapid global warming are likely to be concentrated especially in developing countries and that some countries may be gravely affected. Climate impacts research has until recently been focused principally on a handful of more affluent countries, but studies of climate impacts on developing countries are now under way and preliminary results are likely to be available for many areas of the world within the next year

  2. Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Bonnie; Lynch, Abigail; Bunnell, David; Chu, Cindy; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Paukert, Craig

    2017-01-01

    Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

  3. Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B.; Pollard, David; Thompson, Starley L.

    1992-10-01

    TERRESTRIAL ecosystems are thought to play an important role in determining regional and global climate1-6 one example of this is in Amazonia, where destruction of the tropical rainforest leads to warmer and drier conditions4-6. Boreal forest ecosystems may also affect climate. As temperatures rise, the amount of continental and oceanic snow and ice is reduced, so the land and ocean surfaces absorb greater amounts of solar radiation, reinforcing the warming in a 'snow/ice/albedo' feedback which results in large climate sensitivity to radiative forcings7-9. This sensitivity is moderated, however, by the presence of trees in northern latitudes, which mask the high reflectance of snow10,11, leading to warmer winter temperatures than if trees were not present12-14. Here we present results from a global climate model which show that the boreal forest warms both winter and summer air temperatures, relative to simulations in which the forest is replaced with bare ground or tundra vegetation. Our results suggest that future redistributions of boreal forest and tundra vegetation (due, for example, to extensive logging, or the influence of global warming) could initiate important climate feedbacks, which could also extend to lower latitudes.

  4. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world. © 2012 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  5. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  6. Linking Urban Air Pollution to Global Tropospheric Chemistry and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chien

    2005-01-01

    The two major tasks of this project are to study: (a) the impact of urban nonlinear chemistry on chemical budgets of key pollutants in non-urban areas; and (b) the influence of air pollution control strategies in selected metropolitan areas, particularly of emerging economies in East and South Asia, on tropospheric chemistry and hence on regional and global climate.

  7. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  8. Modeling the potential impacts of global climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the hottest issues in the recent environmental research worldwide has become the harmful effects of climate change on the ecosystems and environment due to global warming. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries not only in the South East Asia but also in the world. It is predicted that a large portion of ...

  9. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  10. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  11. The Changing Global Climate and its Implication on Sea Level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract— Global mean sea levels show a general rising trend that has been accelerated by the recent changes in world climate. This is ascertained through geological and historical records, measurements from in situ tide gauges around the globe and since 1992, through satellite altimetry. About 60% of the 34 tide gauge ...

  12. Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S; Chiaradia, André

    2017-02-01

    Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world's richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation.

  13. In brief... A Global Apollo Programme to tackle climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Layard

    2015-01-01

    Leading thinkers across the worlds of science, public service and academia have launched a new global programme to combat climate change. Richard Layard outlines their proposal for big public investment in research that will dramatically reduce the costs of clean energy.

  14. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  15. Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

    2009-01-01

    The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

  16. Trace gases and other potential perturbations to global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Washington, W.M.; Isaacs, R.G.; Molnar, G.

    1986-01-01

    We review the various natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect the climate. The purpose is to summarize our understanding of these factors and their potential future climatic effects so that CO 2 -induced climate change can be viewed in a proper context. The factors we discuss include trace gases, anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, variation of solar constant, change of surface characteristics, and releases of waste heat. We discuss the origins of the various natural and anthropogenic perturbations, the physical and chemical processes and their interactions, model sensitivity calculations, and model projections of their potential future climatic effects. The discussions center on trace gases because of their potentially large climatic effects. It appears that the increases of atmospheric trace gases of other kinds in addition to CO 2 could have important climatic effects. The model calculations suggest that the combined effect of these other trace gases, and the associated change of atmospheric ozone and water vapor distributions, could potentially warm the climate by an amount comparable in magnitude to the effect of doubling the CO 2 . Aerosols of anthropogenic origins may have substantial effects on regional climate, while the volcanic aerosols may have an effect on large-scale climate for up to a few years after injection. Changes of surface characteristics and releases of waste heat may also have substantial effects on the regional climate, but these effects are most likely to be small when compared with the effect of CO 2 increase. Changes of solar constant could have an effect on the global scale, but the time scale is much longer. There is much more that needs to be learned with regard to the above mentioned natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect the climate. A brief summary of those needs is presented

  17. Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development

    OpenAIRE

    Docquier, Frédéric; Rapoport, Hillel

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews four decades of economics research on the brain drain, with a focus on recent contributions and on development issues. We first assess the magnitude, intensity, and determinants of the brain drain, showing that brain drain (or high-skill) migration is becoming a dominant pattern of international migration and a major aspect of globalization. We then use a stylized growth model to analyze the various channels through which a brain drain affects the sending countries and revi...

  18. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

  19. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  20. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  1. Proceedings from the sustainable development and climate change workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halsnaes, K.; Olhoff, A.

    2001-01-01

    The specific objectives of the workshop were: 1) To consider how longer-term development priorities link with climate change concerns. 2) To identify options for meeting developing countries needs and priorities while contributing to sustainable development both locally and globally. 3) To discuss possible longer term action at domestic and international levels by countries to further the sustainable development and climate change discussion. First of all, it was recognised that there has been a strong support, endorsement, and agreement among all participants on using sustainable development as a framework for climate change olicies, and this agreement is very encouraging for further activities and collaboration. Furthermore, there is a need for new innovative international financial schemes taht can support sustainable development investments with large climate change benefits. This is maybe beyond the scope of the UNFCCC, but will maybe be more important than the convention in controlling global GHG emissions. It was several times emphasised in the discussion that capacity building and institutional strengthening in developning countries are needed to implement long-term global strategies. Several national examples of sustainable development policies with large impacts on climate change were given at the workshop. These include: 1) The ethanol programme of Brazil. 2)Energy efficiency programmes in China that are part of general economic development strategies. 3) Development of natural gas supply through investment in a pipeline project in Shanghai in China. 4) Energy efficiency and renewable energy programme in India that are linked to economic development programmes. Detailed national programmes for forestry, agriculture and land use sectors. 5) National development programmes including climate change policies in South Korea with broad stakeholder participation, and the use of market instruments. 6) The South Africa approach to use sustainable development

  2. Proceedings from the sustainable development and climate change workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K.; Olhoff, A.

    2001-07-01

    The specific objectives of the workshop were: 1) To consider how longer-term development priorities link with climate change concerns. 2) To identify options for meeting developing countries needs and priorities while contributing to sustainable development both locally and globally. 3) To discuss possible longer term action at domestic and international levels by countries to further the sustainable development and climate change discussion. First of all, it was recognised that there has been a strong support, endorsement, and agreement among all participants on using sustainable development as a framework for climate change olicies, and this agreement is very encouraging for further activities and collaboration. Furthermore, there is a need for new innovative international financial schemes taht can support sustainable development investments with large climate change benefits. This is maybe beyond the scope of the UNFCCC, but will maybe be more important than the convention in controlling global GHG emissions. It was several times emphasised in the discussion that capacity building and institutional strengthening in developning countries are needed to implement long-term global strategies. Several national examples of sustainable development policies with large impacts on climate change were given at the workshop. These include: 1) The ethanol programme of Brazil. 2)Energy efficiency programmes in China that are part of general economic development strategies. 3) Development of natural gas supply through investment in a pipeline project in Shanghai in China. 4) Energy efficiency and renewable energy programme in India that are linked to economic development programmes. Detailed national programmes for forestry, agriculture and land use sectors. 5) National development programmes including climate change policies in South Korea with broad stakeholder participation, and the use of market instruments. 6) The South Africa approach to use sustainable development

  3. Climate Change | Page 18 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Language English. Read more about DFID-IDRC Global Adaptation Research Program. Language English. Read more about Synthesizing Learning on Adaptation to Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Strengthening Local Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Bolivian Altiplano. Language ...

  4. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-04-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

  5. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  6. Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

    2017-12-01

    Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

  7. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  8. Climate-induced forest dieback: An escalating global phenomenon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig D.

    2009-01-01

    Forests, which today cover 30 percent of the world’s land surface (FAO, 2006), are being rapidly and directly transformed in many areas by the impacts of expanding human populations and economies. Less evident are the pervasive effects of ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Recent examples of drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback (defined here as tree mortality noticeably above usual mortality levels) are being documented from all forested continents, making it possible to begin to see global patterns. This article introduces these patterns and considers the possibility that many forests and woodlands today are at increasing risk of climate-induced dieback. A more comprehensive article (Allen et al., 2009) addresses this topic in considerably greater detail. While climate events can damage forests in many ways ranging from ice storms to tornadoes and hurricanes, the emphasis here is on climatic water stress, driven by drought and warm temperatures.

  9. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available......, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change....... Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shiftswere, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts...

  10. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  11. How Climate Change became a Business Risk: Analyzing Non-State Agency in Global Climate Politics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattberg, P.H.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is widely acknowledged as a key business risk. Companies around the globe are taking action to mitigate their carbon emissions, develop climate-friendly products and services, and prepare for the negative impacts of climate change for their operations. Financial investors, on their

  12. Climate change at the coast: from global to local; Impact du changement climatique sur la cote: de global a local

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watkinson, A.R. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (United Kingdom); East Anglia Univ., School of East Science, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  13. Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusi...

  14. Climate Process Team "Representing calving and iceberg dynamics in global climate models"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergienko, O. V.; Adcroft, A.; Amundson, J. M.; Bassis, J. N.; Hallberg, R.; Pollard, D.; Stearns, L. A.; Stern, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    Iceberg calving accounts for approximately 50% of the ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. By changing a glacier's geometry, calving can also significantly perturb the glacier's stress-regime far upstream of the grounding line. This process can enhance discharge of ice across the grounding line. Once calved, icebergs drift into the open ocean where they melt, injecting freshwater to the ocean and affecting the large-scale ocean circulation. The spatial redistribution of the freshwater flux have strong impact on sea-ice formation and its spatial variability. A Climate Process Team "Representing calving and iceberg dynamics in global climate models" was established in the fall 2014. The major objectives of the CPT are: (1) develop parameterizations of calving processes that are suitable for continental-scale ice-sheet models that simulate the evolution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets; (2) compile the data sets of the glaciological and oceanographic observations that are necessary to test, validate and constrain the developed parameterizations and models; (3) develop a physically based iceberg component for inclusion in the large-scale ocean circulation model. Several calving parameterizations based suitable for various glaciological settings have been developed and implemented in a continental-scale ice sheet model. Simulations of the present-day Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show that the ice-sheet geometric configurations (thickness and extent) are sensitive to the calving process. In order to guide the development as well as to test calving parameterizations, available observations (of various kinds) have been compiled and organized into a database. Monthly estimates of iceberg distribution around the coast of Greenland have been produced with a goal of constructing iceberg size distribution and probability functions for iceberg occurrence in particular regions. A physically based iceberg model component was used in a GFDL

  15. Global Governance of Climate Change The Paris Agreement as a New Component of the UN Climate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Wirth

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force less than a year later, is the newest instrument to be adopted in the United Nations-sponsored global climate regime. The Paris Agreement takes its place under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and next to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2012 Doha Amendment. After describing the historical evolution of the UN climate regime employing the tools of international law, this Article explores the structural, institutional, and legal relationships between the new Paris Agreement and the prior development and content of UN-sponsored efforts on climate protection under the auspices of the 1992 Framework Convention. The need for such an analysis is particularly urgent because the new instrument was purposely not identified as a “protocol,” and its relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol is unclear. This Article consequently traces the development of the universal, UN-anchored climate regime from its origins in the 1990s to the present moment, with particular attention to the structural relationship among its various components and historical junctures. The Article then examines the text and structure of the Paris Agreement, along with its context, against this background. The significance of the Agreement’s status as an instrument other than a “protocol,” and its uncertain textual and institutional relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol, receive particular scrutiny. The Article concludes that the Paris Agreement, from a structural and institutional point of view, represents both a break with the past designed to initiate a new, globally-inclusive multilateral approach to climate protection, but also contains indications of continuity with prior questions of global climate policy.

  16. Education for Sustainable Development A Global Agenda for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FEKEDE

    problems and became issues of developed and developing countries. Because of environmental problems. (climate change, airborne toxins, pollution of air and water, solid waste management, global warming, loss of biodiversity, ozone depletion, resource depletion, acid rain etc), for which the human action is the major.

  17. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

  18. A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonchalermkit, S.

    1994-01-01

    Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

  19. The economics of long-term global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  20. Global climate and the distribution of plant biomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, F I; Lomas, M R; Kelly, C K

    2004-10-29

    Biomes are areas of vegetation that are characterized by the same life-form. Traditional definitions of biomes have also included either geographical or climatic descriptors. This approach describes a wide range of biomes that can be correlated with characteristic climatic conditions, or climatic envelopes. The application of remote sensing technology to the frequent observation of biomes has led to a move away from the often subjective definition of biomes to one that is objective. Carefully characterized observations of life-form, by satellite, have been used to reconsider biome classification and their climatic envelopes. Five major tree biomes can be recognized by satellites based on leaf longevity and morphology: needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf evergreen, needleleaf deciduous, broadleaf cold deciduous and broadleaf drought deciduous. Observations indicate that broadleaf drought deciduous vegetation grades substantially into broadleaf evergreen vegetation. The needleleaf deciduous biome occurs in the world's coldest climates, where summer drought and therefore a drought deciduous biome are absent. Traditional biome definitions are quite static, implying no change in their life-form composition with time, within their particular climatic envelopes. However, this is not the case where there has been global ingress of grasslands and croplands into forested vegetation. The global spread of grasses, a new super-biome, was probably initiated 30-45 Myr ago by an increase in global aridity, and was driven by the natural spread of the disturbances of fire and animal grazing. These disturbances have been further extended over the Holocene era by human activities that have increased the land areas available for domestic animal grazing and for growing crops. The current situation is that grasses now occur in most, if not all biomes, and in many areas they dominate and define the biome. Croplands are also increasing, defining a new and relatively recent component to the

  1. Global travel within the 2 °C climate target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girod, Bastien; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Deetman, Sebastiaan

    2012-01-01

    Long-term scenarios generally project a steep increase in global travel demand, leading to an rapid rise in CO 2 emissions. Major driving forces are the increasing car use in developing countries and the global growth in air travel. Meeting the 2 °C climate target, however, requires a deep cut in CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we explore how extensive emission reductions may be achieved, using a newly developed travel model. This bottom-up model covers 26 world regions, 7 travel modes and different vehicle types. In the experiments, we applied a carbon tax and looked into the model’s responses in terms of overall travel demand, modal split shifts, and changes in technology and fuel choice. We introduce two main scenarios in which biofuels are assumed to be carbon neutral (not subject to taxation, scenario A) or to lead to some greenhouse gas emissions (and therefore subject to taxation, scenario B). This leads to very different outcomes. Scenario A achieves emission reductions mostly through changes in fuel use. In Scenario B efficiency improvement and model split changes also play a major role. In both scenarios total travel volume is affected only marginally. - Highlights: ► This study evaluates deep reduction in direct CO 2 emissions of passenger transportation. ► The TRAVEL model is used to derive cost optimal scenarios. ► TRAVEL considers changes in fuel use, energy efficiency and mode split. ► Emissions reductions in line with the 2 °C target are feasible. ► Despite high carbon tax resulting reduction in travel demand is low.

  2. Global warming: a changing climate for hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oud, E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper quantifies the benefits attributable to hydroelectric power generation in preventing carbon dioxide emissions from the use of thermal plants. It proposes that utilities and funding agencies consider the societal costs associated with the emission of CO 2 in power system planning. It also suggests that the industrialized countries should consider changing their funding practice and give more appropriate credits for the construction of hydro plants in developing countries, with a view to avoiding the construction and operation of fossil fuelled powerplants. (author)

  3. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2010-01-01

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

  4. Global climate and infectious disease: The cholera paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colwell, R.R. [Univ. of Maryland Biotechnology Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-12-20

    Historically, infectious diseases have had a profound effect on human populations, including their evolution and cultural development. Despite significant advances in medical science, infectious diseases continue to impact human populations in many parts of the world. Emerging diseases are considered to be those infections that either are newly appearing in the population or are rapidly increasing in incidence or expanding in geographic range. Emergence of disease is not a simple phenomenon, mainly because infectious diseases are dynamic. Most new infections are not caused by truly new pathogens but are microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and helminths) that find a new way to enter a susceptible host and are newly recognized because of recently developed, sensitive techniques. Human activities drive emergence of disease and a variety of social, economic, political, climatic, technological, and environmental factors can shape the pattern of a disease and influence its emergence into populations. For example, travel affects emergence of disease, and human migrations have been the main source of epidemics throughout history. Trade caravans, religious pilgrimage, and military campaigns facilitated the spread of plague, smallpox, and cholera. Global travel is a fact of modern life and, equally so, the continued evolution of microorganisms; therefore, new infections will continue to emerge, and known infections will change in distribution, frequency, and severity. 88 refs., 1 fig.

  5. Assessing In-service Secondary School Science Teachers knowledge base about global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, D.; Roehrig, G. H.; Karahan, E.; Liu, S.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is a crucial environmental issue that is challenging all Americans. With an effective collaboration between researchers, scientists and teachers, conceptual frameworks and methods can be developed for creating climate change content for classroom implementation. In this paper, we describe how teachers' conceptualize and understand global climate change. The information generated by this study can further be used to develop theme based, structured curricula to enhance teachers' understanding of the phenomenon of global climate change. Recent national documents concerning science education have focused on an Earth System approach and concentrate on the fundamental concepts and big ideas in earth science and climate change (e.g., The Earth Science Literacy Initiative (ESLI) (National Science Foundation (NSF), 2009) and Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), 2009)). Unfortunately, research related to teachers' earth science content knowledge has not focused on an earth systems approach rather researchers have examined teachers' misconceptions about isolated earth science concepts, such as moon phases and plate tectonics. While such research implies teachers' lack of knowledge and awareness of earth as a system, it does not provide direct information about teachers' earth system knowledge. Similarly, research on teachers' and students' knowledge of climate change has focused on isolated topics, such as the greenhouse effect and global warming. Our study focused on eliciting secondary school science teachers' understanding of global climate change using a multifaceted and integrated approach. We do so in the context of a 3-year teacher professional development program where the climate science content provided to the teachers was aligned with essential principles of climate science (EPCS-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), 2009). Our study was guided

  6. ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowland, F. S.

    2010-01-01

    The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

  7. GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AMERICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PATRICK PATERSON

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming presents one of the most serious threats to South American nations. Countries in the region are at risk of a variety of climate change related problems: rising sea levels, diminishing potable water supplies, forest res, intense storms and ooding, heat waves and the spread of diseases. These disasters are occurring more frequently in the region and will likely increase in intensity also. The armed forces in the region are the only government departments with both the capacity and the manpower to respond to these massive catastrophes. Military support to civilian authorities will be required more frequently and under more severe conditions as climate change conditions worsen.

  8. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  9. Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Syud A; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W

    2009-01-01

    Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample-particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa-with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

  10. Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Syud A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2009-07-01

    Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

  11. Role of Bioethanol in Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheehan, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy. The program was initiated in a flood of funding in the late 1970s related to the energy shortages experienced in that period. The flooding turned rapidly to drought as falling oil prices dissipated public concern about energy supplies. In the late 1980s, funding for the program slowly increased, driven by national security issues.

  12. Workshop in political institutions - institutional analysis and global climate change: Design principles for robust international regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGinnis, M.

    1992-01-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that human activities have a significant effect on the world's climate. Political pressures are growing to establish political institutions at the global level that would help manage the social and economic consequences of climate change. Disagreements remain about the magnitude of these effects, as well as the regional distribution of the detrimental consequences of climate change. In this paper we do not wish to enter into the complexities of these technical debates. Instead, we wish to challenge a seemingly widespread consensus about the nature of the political response appropriate to this global dilemma. Specifically, we question the extent to which the open-quotes answerclose quotes can be said to reside primarily in the establishment of the new global institutions likely to emerge from the first open-quotes Earth Summitclose quotes - the United Nations (UN) Conference on Environment and Development - scheduled for June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro

  13. BRICS COUNTRIES’ POLITICAL AND LEGAL PARTICIPATION IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Gladun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an overview and analysis of international legal regulations on climate change. The authors examine how the international regime related to climate change has evolved in multilateral agreements. A special focus is put on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities which became the basis of discord among states in discussing targets and responsibilities in climate change mitigation. The authors note that in 2015 the international climate change regime entered a new stage where the most important role is determined for developing countries, both in the legal and in the financial infrastructure, and in the formation of an international climate change policy.The importance of the participation of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS in an international climate change regime has been recognized for some time. The article describes the policy and regulations on climate-related issues in BRICS. The authors compare the key actions and measures BRICS have taken for complying with international climate change documents. They highlight that global climate change action cannot be successful without BRICS countries’ involvement. BRICS must therefore make adequate efforts in emissions reduction measures and significant commitments in respect of the international climate change regime. The authors propose three major steps for BRICS to take the lead in dealing with climate change. First, BRICS need to foster further discussion and cooperation on climate issues and work out an obligatory legal framework to fight climate change collectively as well as unified legislation at their domestic levels. Second, Russia and other BRICS countries have the potential to cooperate in the field of renewable energy through the exchange of technology, investment in the sector, and the participation of their energy companies in each other’s domestic market. Assuming Russia will support the development and enhancement of

  14. Implications of global climate change for housing, human settlements and public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hales, Simon; Baker, Michael; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Menne, Bettina; Woodruff, Rosalie; Woodward, Alistair

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change has profound implications for human societies. The present---ecologically unsustainable--trajectory of human development fails to provide for the basic needs of a substantial fraction of the global population, while diminishing the prospects for future generations. Human-caused climate change has already begun to affect weather patterns, physical and biological phenomena, and vulnerable human communities. Because the social processes of production and consumption have their own momentum, and because carbon dioxide has a long atmospheric lifetime, further climate change is inevitable over the coming century, even allowing for the adoption of mitigation measures. This situation implies that we should also try to reduce, and where possible to prevent, the adverse effects of climate changes by planned adaptation. Will human settlements be able to provide a healthy living environment and shelter from extreme climate events, such as cyclones and heat waves? In this paper, we review the nexus between human health, climate change, and the planning of housing and human settlements. We conclude that adapting to a rapidly changing global environment will be a major challenge, in the context of increasing population and per capita consumption, without increasing pressures on natural systems. Energy-efficient cities and the creation of opportunities for poor countries will be important elements of people centered, ecologically sustainable, development in the twenty-first century.

  15. Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

  16. Regional climate agreements are more effective than global ones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froyn, Camilla Bretteville

    2004-01-01

    The more countries that contribute to climate gas reductions, the more effective the climate regime will be. But the contribution from one country alone will have little impact on the global emissions. Each country must bear its own costs, and since each country's efforts involve more expenses than advantages, it is tempting to be a free rider as long as there is no guarantee that a sufficient number of countries will contribute to the reduction. There are decision-makers on all levels, from international organizations to single firms and individuals, and so it is very difficult to find a climate political strategy that is acceptable for all. Therefore it is also difficult for a government to choose a position in international forums. It is precisely this ambiguity, and the fact that the climate policy cannot be isolated from other socioeconomic goals, that makes the international climate negotiations so complex. Conflicting interests are thus the greatest hindrance for arriving at a common political strategy against anthropogenic climate changes

  17. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  18. Health, globalization and developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilingiroglu, Nesrin

    2005-02-01

    In health care today, scientific and technological frontiers are expanding at unprecedented rates, even as economic and financial pressures shrink profit margins, intensify competition, and constrain the funds available for investment. Therefore, the world today has more economic, and social opportunities for people than 10 or 100 years since globalization has created a new ground somewhat characterized by rapid economic transformation, deregulation of national markets by new trade regimes, amazing transport, electronic communication possibilities and high turnover of foreign investment and capital flow as well as skilled labor. These trends can easily mask great inequalities in developing countries such as importation and spreading of infectious and non-communicable diseases; miniaturization of movement of medical technology; health sector trades management driven by economics without consideration to the social and health aspects and its effects, increasing health inequalities and their economic and social burden creation; multinational companies' cheap labor employment promotion in widening income differentials; and others. As a matter of fact, all these factors are major determinants of ill health. Health authorities of developing countries have to strengthen their regulatory framework in order to ensure that national health systems derive maximum benefit in terms of equity, quality and efficiency, while reducing potential social cost to a minimum generated risky side of globalization.

  19. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  20. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    OpenAIRE

    B. B. B. Booth; D. Bernie; D. McNeall; E. Hawkins; J. Caesar; C. Boulton; P. Friedlingstein; D. Sexton

    2012-01-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concen...

  1. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  2. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  3. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  4. Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn

    2017-05-01

    Information about weather and climate is vital for many areas of decision-making, particularly under conditions of increasing vulnerability and uncertainty related to climate change. We have quantified the global commercial supply of weather and climate information services. Although government data are sometimes freely available, the interpretation and analysis of those data, alongside additional data collection, are required to formulate responses to specific challenges in areas such as health, agriculture, and the built environment. Using transactional data, we analyzed annual spending by private and public organizations on commercial weather and climate information in more than 180 countries by industrial sector, region, per capita, and percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) and against the country's climate and extreme weather risk. There are major imbalances regarding access to these essential services between different countries based on region and development status. There is also no relationship between the level of climate and weather risks that a country faces and the level of per capita spending on commercial weather and climate information in that country. At the international level, action is being taken to improve access to information services. With a better understanding of the flows of commercial weather and climate information, as explored in this study, it will be possible to tackle these regional and development-related disparities and thus to increase resilience to climate and weather risks.

  5. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  6. Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, R R

    1996-12-20

    The origin of cholera has been elusive, even though scientific evidence clearly shows it is a waterborne disease. However, standard bacteriological procedures for isolation of the cholera vibrio from environmental samples, including water, between epidemics generally were unsuccessful. Vibrio cholerae, a marine vibrio, requiring salt for growth, enters into a dormant, viable but nonculturable stage when conditions are unfavorable for growth and reproduction. The association of Vibrio cholerae with plankton, notably copepods, provides further evidence for the environmental origin of cholera, as well as an explanation for the sporadic and erratic occurrence of cholera epidemics. On a global scale, cholera epidemics can now be related to climate and climatic events, such as El Niño, as well as the global distribution of the plankton host. Remote sensing, with the use of satellite imagery, offers the potential for predicting conditions conducive to cholera outbreaks or epidemics.

  7. Climate change adaptation planning for Global South megacities: The case of Dhaka

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Araos, Malcolm; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, L.; Biesbroek, G.R.; Moser, S.

    2017-01-01

    Megacities in low- and middle-income countries face unique threats from climate change as vulnerable populations and infrastructure are concentrated in high-risk areas. This paper develops a theoretical framework to characterize adaptation readiness in Global South cities and applies the framework

  8. Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation - an analysis with REMIND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bauer, Nico; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Luderer, Gunnar; Baumstark, Lavinia; Brecha, Robert J.; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kriegler, Elmar

    We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs

  9. Global climate change: US-Japan cooperative leadership for environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, J.E.; Fri, R.W.; Ikuta, Toyoaki; Guertin, D.L.; Tomitate, Takao.

    1991-01-01

    Over the past decade the Atlantic Council of the United States has engaged in continuing dialogue with the Committee for Energy Policy Promotion (Japan), The Institute of Energy Economics (Japan) and the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (Japan) on a range of energy issues, including environmentally related considerations. Cooperation on environmental issues is the subject of this joint US-Japanese policy paper on global climate change. The Japanese and US participants who prepared this paper agreed on a number of conclusions, principles to guide action, and common recommendations on how best to address global climate change issues. The agreed upon principles include development of strategies in a long-term time frame (50-100 years); aggressive action to increase efficiency or reduce pollution when economically and technologically justified; utilization of market forces to the maximum extent possible; and assistance to developing countries in reducing pollution and increasing energy efficiency. The key recommendations include: The need to strengthen research to better understand global climate change, its implications and appropriate response strategies; The importance of involving as many nations as possible in formulating a framework agreement on global climate change; Recognition that, given economic and technical capabilities, each country should develop its own response strategies; Additional public and private sector efforts to increase the efficient use of resources and the use of alternate, less polluting energy resources when economically justified; Actions to address obstacles to technology cooperation with developing countries; and Increased flow of information to opinion leaders and the general public on global climate change

  10. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  11. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  12. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  13. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  14. Resolving the Aerosol Piece of the Global Climate Picture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    Factors affecting our ability to calculate climate forcing and estimate model predictive skill include direct radiative effects of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Several decades of Earth-observing satellite observations have produced a global aerosol column-amount (AOD) record, but an aerosol microphysical property record required for climate and many air quality applications is lacking. Surface-based photometers offer qualitative aerosol-type classification, and several space-based instruments map aerosol air-mass types under favorable conditions. However, aerosol hygroscopicity, mass extinction efficiency (MEE), and quantitative light absorption, must be obtained from in situ measurements. Completing the aerosol piece of the climate picture requires three elements: (1) continuing global AOD and qualitative type mapping from space-based, multi-angle imagers and aerosol vertical distribution from near-source stereo imaging and downwind lidar, (2) systematic, quantitative in situ observations of particle properties unobtainable from space, and (3) continuing transport modeling to connect observations to sources, and extrapolate limited sampling in space and time. At present, the biggest challenges to producing the needed aerosol data record are: filling gaps in particle property observations, maintaining global observing capabilities, and putting the pieces together. Obtaining the PDFs of key particle properties, adequately sampled, is now the leading observational deficiency. One simplifying factor is that, for a given aerosol source and season, aerosol amounts often vary, but particle properties tend to be repeatable. SAM-CAAM (Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses), a modest aircraft payload deployed frequently could fill this gap, adding value to the entire satellite data record, improving aerosol property assumptions in retrieval algorithms, and providing MEEs to translate between remote-sensing optical constraints

  15. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    OpenAIRE

    Lauwaet, Dirk; Hooyberghs, Hans; Maiheu, Bino; Lefebvre, Wouter; Driesen, Guy; Looy, Stijn Van; Ridder, Koen De

    2015-01-01

    A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005) and future (2081–2100) climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban hea...

  16. Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

    2015-03-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

  17. Cyclic volcanism at convergent margins: Controlled by global climate changes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutterolf, S.; Freundt, A.; Kwasnitschka, T.; Jegen, M.; Graf, H.-F.; Perez, W.; Schmincke, H.-U.

    2009-04-01

    The records of widespread tephras of sub-Plinian to Plinian, and occasionally co-ignimbrite origin, which are particularly well preserved on the ocean floor, are representative of how eruption frequency varied with time. We investigate temporal variations of tephra deposits since the Pleistocene around the Pacific Ring of Fire accounting for about half of the global length of 44,000 km of active subduction. Eruptions at such arc volcanoes tend to be highly explosive and climatically relevant because their magmas are commonly volatile rich. Volcanic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire evolved through alternating phases of high and low frequencies similar to periodicities as enforced by the Milankovich orbital parameters of the Earth and which also are observed in long-term climate proxies. For the first time we are able to show that there is a significant correlation between volcanic activity, changes in global sea-level and glacial stages such that peak volcanic activity occurs with a delay of about 20 ka after times of maximum rates in sea-level rise and strong deglaciation on the continents, helping the climate system to return to less intense warming and thus modulating the climate variations forced by orbital changes of the Earth.

  18. The United Nations and Climate Change: Legal and Policy Developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunn, Isabella D.

    2009-07-01

    The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has declared that climate change is "the defining challenge of our times." Climate change trends indicate increasingly severe negative impacts on the majority of countries, with disproportionate effects on poor and vulnerable populations. The scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have placed the issue on the forefront of the international agenda. This article examines how climate change is shaping legal and policy developments in five key areas of UN responsibility: international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security. It concludes with some observations about high-level efforts to coordinate the response of multilateral institutions, the changing stance of the US government, and the role of environmental protection in addressing the current global economic crisis.

  19. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  20. Development and Validation of an Instrument for Assessing Climate Change Knowledge and Perceptions: The Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Scott L.; McNeal, Karen S.

    2013-01-01

    The Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) was developed to measure knowledge and perceptions of global climate change, while also considering information sources that respondents 'trust.' The CSS was drafted using a three-stage approach: development of salient scales, writing individual items, and field testing and analyses. Construct validity and…

  1. Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Lindsay F

    2010-01-01

    The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well. © 2010 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  2. Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jing X

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Development and Climate Change in Fiji. Focus on Coastal Mangroves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawala, S.; Ota, Tomoko; Van Aalst, M.; Smith, J.; Hagenstad, M.; Risbey, J.; Koshy, K.; Prasad, B.

    2003-01-01

    This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity jointly overseen by the EPOC Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the DAC Network on Environment and Development Co-operation (ENVIRONET). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. This report presents the integrated case study for Fiji carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tier framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Fiji are assessed, and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are analyzed to examine the proportion of donor activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for Fiji's coastal mangroves which help reduce coastal inundation and storm surge damages, but are also themselves vulnerable to climate change

  4. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    BRASPENNING-RADU Olivia; VAN DEN BERG Maarten; KLIMONT Zbigniew; DEETMAN Sebastiaan; JANSSENS-MAENHOUT Greet; MUNTEAN Marilena; HEYES Chris; DENTENER Franciscus; VAN VUUREN Detlef

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightl...

  5. Atmospheric Rivers in Climate Simulations: A Multi-model, Global Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. To date, there have been very limited broad characterizations of AR representations in global weather and climate models despite the increasing awareness of ARs' global signatures and impacts in all continents. Part of the challenge in AR-related global model evaluation has been the lack of automated AR detection algorithms suitable for such applications. One such algorithm was recently developed, evaluated, and applied to reanalysis products to provide a baseline characterization of the global climatology of ARs (Guan and Waliser, 2015). In this work, the above algorithm is applied to 20-year, 6-hourly simulations by 24 global weather/climate models from the GASS-YoTC Multi-model Experiment. Multiple reanalysis products are used as references. Model performance is examined for key characteristics of ARs (frequency, geometry, intensity, climate variations, etc.), with the focus on identifying and understanding systematic biases in simulated ARs. The results highlight the range of model performances relative to reanalysis uncertainties in representing the most basic features of ARs. Possible connections between AR simulation qualities and model configurations (e.g., spatial resolution, air-sea coupling) will be discussed. The work will contribute to the development of a suite of AR simulation diagnostics and model performance metrics and associated software packages.

  6. Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Peter L.

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

  7. A climate for development. Climate change policy options for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okoth-Ogendo, H.W.O.; Ojwang, J.B.

    1995-01-01

    The seriousness of the potential impacts of climate change on development in Africa is now well recognized within, and increasingly outside, scientific circles. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a landmark in international environmental governance, providing a mechanism for exchange, negotiation and institution-building to re-direct development towards more efficient use of resources, especially energy. The message of 'A climate for Development' is that unless policy-makers fully understand both the international commitments made under the Convention and the essential national development priorities of their own countries, effective action on climate change is unlikely to be realized. The action needed, however, can at the same time stimulate capacity-building, planning and policy change which would strengthen the economic and ecological base of African countries. The climate change issue has hence brought us face to face with the urgency of the basic issues of sustainable development in Africa. The book discusses key issues that cut across all African countries, such as emissions and their impacts, financial resources and technology transfer for emissions abatement strategies. It then provides a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and abatement options focusing on energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and transportation. The book concludes with guidelines for options which may be considered by African countries to ensure that climate change concerns are effectively dealt with in the context of their development priorities. 113 refs

  8. Environmental and socio-economic impacts of global climate change: An overview on mitigation approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhat Kumar Rai

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to bring about major change in freshwater availability, the productive capacity of soils, and in patterns of human settlement. Likewise, climate change is intimately linked to human health either directly or indirectly. However, considerable uncertainties exist with regard to the extent and geographical distribution of these changes. Predicting scenarios for how climate-related environmental change may influence human societies and political systems necessarily involves an even higher degree of uncertainty. Societies have a long record of adapting to climate risks and, climate changes. Household asset portfolios and livelihood choices are shaped by the need to manage climatic risks, especially in rural areas and for lowincome households. Likewise, disaggregated analysis revealed that demographic and environmental variables have a very profound effect on the risk of civil conflict and hence peace. In nutshell, we can say that there may be multifaceted impact of climate change in its totality. Further, different views, issues and mitigation measures are discussed particularly in Indian scenario. In this direction, The "National Action Plan on Climate Change" was set by Indian Prime Minister which encompasses a broad and extensive range of measures, and focuses on eight missions, which will be pursued as key components of the strategy for sustainable development. These include missions on solar energy, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, conserving water, sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem, creating a "Green India," sustainable agriculture and, finally, establishing a strategic knowledge platform for climate change. Finally, different steps/approaches pertaining to green, eco-friendly and sustainable technology has been discussed in order to mitigate the impact of global environmental damage originating from increased industrialization and hence appropriately address this global disaster which is being the

  9. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

    2011-09-06

    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

  10. Distributed Generation to Support Development-Focused Climate Action

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sadie; Gagnon, Pieter; Stout, Sherry; Zinaman, Owen; Watson, Andrea; Hotchkiss, Eliza

    2016-09-01

    This paper explores the role of distributed generation, with a high renewable energy contribution, in supporting low emission climate-resilient development. The paper presents potential impacts on development (via energy access), greenhouse gas emission mitigation, and climate resilience directly associated with distributed generation, as well as specific actions that may enhance or increase the likelihood of climate and development benefits. This paper also seeks to provide practical and timely insights to support distributed generation policymaking and planning within the context of common climate and development goals as the distributed generation landscape rapidly evolves globally. Country-specific distributed generation policy and program examples, as well as analytical tools that can inform efforts internationally, are also highlighted throughout the paper.

  11. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    2014-03-01

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane.

  12. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  13. Developing Climate Change Literacy With the Humanities: A Narrative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siperstein, S.

    2015-12-01

    Teaching the science and policy of climate change is necessary but insufficient for helping students to develop a robust climate literacy. Climate change educators must also teach students how to evaluate historical trends, to unpack the assumptions in shared cultural narratives, to grapple with ethical dilemmas, and more generally to traverse the turbulence of feeling that is a hallmark of living in a time of global climate chaos. In short, climate literacy must include the skills and strategies of the humanities, and specifically literary and cultural studies. After providing an overview of how literary and cultural studies scholars from around the world are developing innovative pedagogical methods for addressing climate change (drawing on the presenter's experience editing the forthcoming volume Teaching Climate Change in the Humanities), the presentation will then report on a specific Literary Genres course taught at the University of Oregon. The course, offered to undergraduate non-majors who entered the class with little or no knowledge of climate change, constituted a case study of action research into the transdisciplinary teaching of climate change. The presentation will thus draw on quantitative course assessments, student coursework, and the instructor's own experiences in arguing that three key narratives underpin the work we do as multidisciplinary climate change educators: narratives of observation, narratives of speculation, and narratives of conversion. That is, we guide students through the processes of witnessing climate change, imagining more just and sustainable futures, and by so doing, transforming themselves and their communities. In the particular Literary Genres course under consideration, students used the tools of literary and cultural studies first to analyze existing versions of these narratives and then to compose their own versions of these narratives based on their local communities and ecologies. In the context of multidisciplinary

  14. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  15. Entrepreneurship Development and Business Climate of Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kydyrova, Zhamilya Sh.; Satymbekova, Katira B.; Kerimbek, Galymzhan E.; Imanbayev?, Zauresh O.; Saparbayev?, Saule S.; Nurgalieva, Ainash A.; Ilyas, Akylbek A.; Zhalbinova, Saule K.; Jrauovai, Kuralay S.; Kanafina, Ainura T.

    2016-01-01

    The goal is to explore the state of development of entrepreneurship and business climate for the formation of a clear mechanism of state support for small and average business in conditions of economy modernization. A special science-based methodology was developed to monitor the condition of entrepreneurship development and business climate in…

  16. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shongwe, M. E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate extremes are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of extreme events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and extremes in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented extremes cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these extreme events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of extremes. In this thesis temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the extremes, their predictability and their likely response to global warming. The focus is on some selected seasons when extremes typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the extreme event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of

  17. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  18. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  19. Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, F.

    2013-12-01

    The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view

  20. Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

    2011-06-01

    Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

  1. Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-05-01

    Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Global Crop Yields, Climatic Trends and Technology Enhancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Kogan, F.

    2016-12-01

    During the last decades the global agricultural production has soared up and technology enhancement is still making positive contribution to yield growth. However, continuing population, water crisis, deforestation and climate change threaten the global food security. Attempts to predict food availability in the future around the world can be partly understood from the impact of changes to date. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country scale using climate covariates and technology trend is presented in this paper. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling and/or clustering to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Geopotential height (GPH), historical CO2 level and time-trend as a relatively reliable approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2007. Results show that these indicators can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications.

  3. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  4. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  5. Tourism policy, climate change and sustainable development

    OpenAIRE

    Metodijeski, Dejan; Temelkov, Zoran

    2017-01-01

    The subject of this paper is tourism policy, climate change and sustainable development. We consider climate change to be one of the biggest problems of modern living, and the tourism is one of the many sectors affected mainly through the changing faces of tourist destinations. After the climate change we observe reduced numbers of tourists in those tourist destinations. Tourism is the antithesis of bad weather and can be developed only in areas that are not affected by such conditions. For t...

  6. Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

    2000-01-01

    A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

  7. Climate change awareness in a developing nations' second level education system - Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Buggy, Conor J.; McGlynn, Gale

    2014-01-01

    Even if stringent global emission reductions and mitigation efforts over the next few decades prove to be successful, global climate change appears to be inevitable. 'Adaptation' has therefore emerged as a key policy response to manage the impending impacts of climate change. Adaptation is particularly relevant in the context of developing nations, as climate change impacts pose a substantial threat to their continued sustainable development. Adaptive capacity is affected by many socio-econom...

  8. From global framing to local action : translation of climate change impacts in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ogunseitan, O.A. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2000-06-01

    There is considerable controversy regarding policy and climate change mitigation in Africa. Its resolution will require integrating local knowledge and values into climate impact assessments. Africa's vulnerability to climate change can be traced to the frequency of socio-ecological devastation that comes from major climate variations on the continent. The incidence of famines, homelessness and disease epidemics that require international assistance are reflections of weak policies and institution action frames used to cope with climate and weather related emergencies. However, the valuation of climate change impacts has a subjective dimension that can be gained only through indigenous experience and an understanding of values associated with life-saving intervention programs. A recent study showed that discount rates applied to future life-saving programs by Africans are very different from the rates applied in developed countries, and that the difference should be reflected in national development programs and transnational initiatives for capacity building. The study suggests that if the boundary institutions responsible for public health security have not been too effective in resolving the policy controversy surrounding Africa's participation in climate change assessments, it is due partly to the limitations imposed by cross-scale issues in framing. It was concluded that efforts to reduce Africa's dependence on global emergency health response systems will necessitate the development of autonomous capacity to adapt to natural disasters. Appropriate frame reflection is needed at the local level. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  9. Regional climate change under high-end global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Michael; Hemming, Deborah; Betts, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. If no steps are taken to reduce these emissions, it is likely that global temperatures will exceed the limit of 2 deg.C by 2100 (relative to the preindustrial period) desired by the EU. The climate projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) suggest that global temperatures will increase between 1.6 and 6.9 deg.C by 2100, relative to the preindustrial period. Global mean temperature increases of 4 deg.C or more (referred to as 'high-end' projections) are therefore entirely possible. Here, we examine changes in temperature and precipitation from several ensembles of climate models, focusing on those projections where global mean temperatures increase by 4 deg.C or more by the 2090s. We have examined projections from the AR4 models, and the Hadley Centre's perturbed physics ensembles (Qump; based on the HadCM3 climate model). One of the Qump ensembles included an interactive carbon cycle. Previous work has shown that feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle can result in enhanced global warming. These ensembles used greenhouse gas concentrations from a subset of the SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B, A2 and A1FI. The results show that high-end climate change would be avoided if emissions follow the B1 trajectory. However, high-end changes become increasingly frequent under the A1B, A2 and A1FI scenarios (in that order). Overall, 52 of the 131 projections analysed were classed as high-end. The high-end projections suggest that 4 deg.C global warming could be reached by the 2080s, or by the 2070s if emissions are high. If feedbacks from the carbon cycle are strong, 4 deg.C could be reached as early as the 2060s, although our current understanding suggests that such strong feedbacks are unlikely. We also compared global maps of temperature and precipitation changes from the high-end and the remaining members of each ensemble. We found that, using multi

  10. Equity and the Global Policy on Climate Change: A Law and Economic Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andri Gunawan Wibisana

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The opponents of the global commitment to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs emissions seem to have shifted their arguments from the one emphasising on the issue of uncertainty to the one focusing on the economic burdens disproportionately placed on the current generation in general, and some developed countries in particular. Inevitably, the issue of equity becomes of highly importance in the recent climate policy debates. This paper attempts to analyze the implementation of equity principles, i.e. intergenerational and intragenerational equity, in the global climate policy. In doing so, it will first briefly outline some prominent economic appraisals on the impacts of climate change. Afterwards, some proposals to incorporate equity into the economic appraisals will be analyzed. Emphasizing on the concepts of equity, this paper will finally offer some recommendations for post-Kyoto negotiations.

  11. EU Action against Climate Change. EU emissions trading. An open scheme promoting global innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The European Union is committed to global efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that threaten to cause serious disruption to the world's climate. Building on the innovative mechanisms set up under the Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and international emissions trading - the EU has developed the largest company-level scheme for trading in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), making it the world leader in this emerging market. The emissions trading scheme started in the 25 EU Member States on 1 January 2005

  12. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs

  13. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from 1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  14. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to 1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  15. Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munguía, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre F.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2012-01-01

    A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions. PMID:22511938

  16. Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccord, G. C.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

  17. Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerman, Frank; Stanton, Elizabeth A.; Hope, Chris; Alberth, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review received widespread attention for its innovative approach to the economics of climate change when it appeared in 2006, and generated controversies that have continued to this day. One key controversy concerns the magnitude of the expected impacts of climate change. Stern's estimates, based on results from the PAGE2002 model, sounded substantially greater than those produced by many other models, leading several critics to suggest that Stern had inflated his damage figures. We reached the opposite conclusion in a recent application of PAGE2002 in a study of the costs to the US economy of inaction on climate change. This article describes our revisions to the PAGE estimates, and explains our conclusion that the model runs used in the Stern Review may well underestimate US and global damages. Stern's estimates from PAGE2002 implied that mean business-as-usual damages in 2100 would represent just 0.4 percent of GDP for the United States and 2.2 percent of GDP for the world. Our revisions and reinterpretation of the PAGE model imply that climate damages in 2100 could reach 2.6 percent of GDP for the United States and 10.8 percent for the world.

  18. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  19. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  20. The local, remote, and global consequences of climate feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldl, Nicole

    Climate feedbacks offer a powerful framework for revealing the energetic pathways by which the system adjusts to an imposed forcing, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2. We investigate how local atmospheric feedbacks, such as those associated with Arctic sea ice and the Walker circulation, affect both global climate sensitivity and spatial patterns of warming. Emphasis is placed on a general circulation model with idealized boundary conditions, for the clarity it provides. For this aquaplanet simulation, we account for rapid tropospheric adjustments to CO2 and explicitly diagnose feedbacks (using radiative kernels) and forcing for this precise model set-up. In particular, a detailed closure of the energy budget within a clean experimental set-up allows us to consider nonlinear interactions between feedbacks. The inclusion of a tropical Walker circulation is found to prime the Hadley Circulation for a larger deceleration under CO2 doubling, by altering subtropical stratus decks and the meridional feedback gradient. We perform targeted experiments to isolate the atmospheric processes responsible for the variability in climate sensitivity, with implications for high-sensitivity paleoclimates. The local climate response is characterized in terms of the meridional structure of feedbacks, atmospheric heat transport, nonlinearities, and forcing. Our results display a combination of positive subtropical feedbacks and polar amplified warming. These two factors imply a critical role for transport and nonlinear effects, with the latter acting to substantially reduce global climate sensitivity. At the hemispheric scale, a rich picture emerges: anomalous divergence of heat flux away from positive feedbacks in the subtropics; clear-sky nonlinearities that reinforce the pattern of tropical cooling and high-latitude warming tendencies; and strong ice-line feedbacks that drive further amplification of polar warming. These results have implications for regional climate

  1. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....

  2. Global Response of Clear-Air Turbulence to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Joshi, Manoj M.

    2017-10-01

    Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is one of the largest causes of weather-related aviation incidents. Here we use climate model simulations to study the impact that climate change could have on global CAT by the period 2050-2080. We extend previous work by analyzing eight geographic regions, two flight levels, five turbulence strength categories, and four seasons. We find large relative increases in CAT, especially in the midlatitudes in both hemispheres, with some regions experiencing several hundred per cent more turbulence. The busiest international airspace experiences the largest increases, with the volume of severe CAT approximately doubling over North America, the North Pacific, and Europe. Over the North Atlantic, severe CAT in future becomes as common as moderate CAT historically. These results highlight the increasing need to improve operational CAT forecasts and to use them effectively in flight planning, to limit discomfort and injuries among passengers and crew.

  3. Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

    2017-12-01

    As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

  4. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

    2018-03-01

    During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

  6. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... which constitutes awareness creation. As a result, district development plans failed to address climate change adaptation adequately. The paper concludes that there is the need to raise awareness and build local institutional capacities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation for sustainable development in Ghana.

  7. Enabling Linked Science in Global Climate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsethagen, T.; Stephan, E.; Lin, G.; Williams, D.; Banks, E.

    2012-12-01

    This paper shares a real-world global climate UQ science use case and illustrates how a linked science application called Provenance Environment (ProvEn), currently being developed, enables and facilitates scientific teams to publish, share, link, and discover new links over their UQ research results. UQ results include terascale datasets that are published to an Earth Systems Grid Federation (ESGF) repository. ProvEn demonstrates how a scientific team conducting UQ studies can discover dataset links using its domain knowledgebase, allowing them to better understand the UQ study research objectives, the experimental protocol used, the resulting dataset lineage, related analytical findings, ancillary literature citations, along with the social network of scientists associated with the study. This research claims that scientists using this linked science approach will not only allow them to greatly benefit from understanding a particular dataset within a knowledge context, a benefit can also be seen by the cross reference of knowledge among the numerous UQ studies being stored in ESGF. ProvEn collects native forms of data provenance resources as the UQ study is carried out. The native data provenance resources can be collected from a variety of sources such as scripts, a workflow engine log, simulation log files, scientific team members etc. Schema alignment is used to translate the native forms of provenance into a set of W3C PROV-O semantic statements used as a common interchange format which will also contain URI references back to resources in the UQ study dataset for querying and cross referencing. ProvEn leverages Fedora Commons' digital object model in a Resource Oriented Architecture (ROA) (i.e. a RESTful framework) to logically organize and partition native and translated provenance resources by UQ study. The ROA also provides scientists the means to both search native and translated forms of provenance.

  8. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  9. Spatially enabling the Global Framework for Climate Services: Reviewing geospatial solutions to efficiently share and integrate climate data & information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Giuliani

    2017-12-01

    Considering that climate data is part of the broader Earth observation and geospatial data domain, the aim of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art geospatial technologies that can support the delivery of efficient and effective climate services, and enhancing the value chain of climate data in support of the objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The major benefit of spatially-enabling climate services is that it brings interoperability along the entire climate data value chain. It facilitates storing, visualizing, accessing, processing/analyzing, and integrating climate data and information and enables users to create value-added products and services.

  10. Global climate change and planktic foraminiferal response in the Maastrichtian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramovich, Sigal; Yovel-Corem, Shlomit; Almogi-Labin, Ahuva; Benjamini, Chaim

    2010-04-01

    The lengthy warm, stable climate of the Cretaceous terminated in the Campanian with a cooling trend, interrupted in the early and latest Maastrichtian by two events of global warming, at ˜70-68 Ma and at 65.78-65.57 Ma. These climatic oscillations had a profound effect on pelagic ecosystems, especially on planktic foraminiferal populations. Here we compare biotic responses in the tropical-subtropical (Tethyan) open ocean and mesotrophic (Zin Valley, Israel) and oligotrophic (Tunisia) slopes, which correlate directly with global warming and cooling. The two warming events coincide with blooms of Guembelitria, an extreme opportunist genus best known as the main survivor of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) catastrophe. In the Maastrichtian, Guembelitria bloomed in the uppermost surface water above shelf and slope environments but failed to reach the open ocean as it did at K-Pg. The coldest interval of the late Maastrichtian (˜68-65.78 Ma) is marked by an acme of the otherwise rare species Gansserina gansseri, a deep-dwelling keeled globotruncanid. The G. gansseri acme event can be traced from the deep ocean even onto the Tethyan slope, marking copious production and circulation of cold intermediate water. This acme is abruptly terminated by extinction of the species, a dramatic reversal attributed to a short-term global warming episode. This extinction corresponds precisely with the second bloom of Guembelitria that began ˜300 kyr prior to the K-Pg event. The antithetical relationship between blooming of Guembelitria and the G. gansseri acme reflects planktic foraminiferal sensitivity to warm-cool-warm-cool climatic oscillations marking the end of the Cretaceous.

  11. Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

  12. Agricultural development in the context of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate change and continued intensification of agriculture are two "mega-trends" that will impact agricultural systems in the coming decades. While often these two trends are analyzed in isolation, recent work describes how climate change has historically offset some crop yield gains that would have otherwise occurred. Here we spatially analyze how these interactions between climate change and agricultural development may continue to 2025. We highlight areas that will be hit hardest by climate change and require aggressive management changes, as well as areas where large productivity increases are likely given current trends. To carry out our analysis we rely on a recently developed climate analog model to produce projections of climate-induced yield changes, projections of business-as-usual crop yield trends utilizing time-series data from ~13,500 agricultural census units, and published estimates of possible crop yield increases from aggressive intervention to close yield gaps. We find that a rich picture of agriculture in 2025 emerges when analyzing these multiple critical drivers. In many regions, existing yield trends or more aggressive management interventions (closing yield gaps) can overcome negative impacts from climate change. Thus, intensification can provide a buffer from near-term climate impacts, but it is unclear how long society may be able to rely on this buffering capacity.

  13. ``Global Warming/Climate Change'': A Critical Look

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Laurence I.

    2011-11-01

    There continues to be an increasing number of scientists from around the world who are challenging the dominant claim that has been bolstered by so-called ``consensus'' scientific views -- that dangerous ``global warming/climate change'' is caused primarily by human-produced carbon dioxide. This poster will show scientific evidence contradicting that claim. It will also explain some of the errors that have been introduced from a corruption of the scientific method. (Further information can be found at http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/lgould/)

  14. Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, Heidi Lada

    This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected

  15. Global climate change and effects on Pacific Northwest salmonids: An exploratory case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shankle, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    Recently, a number of papers have addressed global warming and freshwater fisheries. The recent report to Congress by the US Environmental Protection Agency included an analysis of potential effects of global warming on fisheries of the Great Lakes, California, and the Southeast. In California, the report stated that salinity increases in the San Francisco Bay could enhance the abundance of marine fish species, while anadromous species could be adversely affected. This paper discusses global climate changes and the effects on Pacific Northwest Salmonids. The impacts of climate change or Spring Chinook production in the Yakima Sub-basin was simulated using a computer modeling system developed for the Northwest Power planning council. 35 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  16. Financial globalization and economic development

    OpenAIRE

    TSINTSADZE ASIE ENVEROVNA; PHUTKARADZE BEKA ZAUROVICH

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of financial globalization on economic growth. Advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed, applying various theoretical aspects, as well as empirical data for the period of 2000-2011

  17. Exploring Science Teachers' Argumentation and Personal Epistemology About Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiyu; Roehrig, Gillian

    2017-06-01

    This case study investigated the nature of in-service science teachers' argumentation and personal epistemology about global climate change during a 3-year professional development program on climate change education. Qualitative analysis of data from interviews and written assessments revealed that while these teachers grounded their arguments on climate issues in evidence, the evidence was often insufficient to justify their causal claims. Compared with generating arguments for their own views, teachers had more difficulties in constructing evidence-based arguments for alternative perspectives. Moreover, while these teachers shared some similarities in their epistemology about climate science, they varied in their beliefs about specific aspects such as scientists' expertise and the credibility of scientific evidence. Such similarities and distinctions were shown to relate to how teachers used evidence to justify claims in their arguments. The findings also suggested a mismatch between teachers' personal epistemology about science in general and climate science, which was revealed through their argumentation. This work helps to further the ongoing discussions in environmental education about what knowledge and skills teachers need in order to teach climate issues and prepare students for future decision making. It constitutes first steps to facilitate reasoning and argumentation in climate change education and provides important implications for future design of professional development programs.

  18. Global warning : an ethnography of the encounter between global and local climate-change discourses in the Bamenda Grassfields, Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de S.

    2015-01-01

    Moving beyond existing approaches that largely deal with the biophysical consequences of climate change realities in Africa, this book explores an alternative perspective that traces climate change as a travelling idea. It focuses on how globally constructed discourses on climate change find their

  19. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2018-04-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  20. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  1. Sustainable development and climate change: Lessons from country studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Shukla, P.; Garg, A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustainable development has been suggested as a framework for integrating development and climate change policies in developing countries. Mainstreaming climate change into sustainable development policies would allow these countries to achieve their development goals while addressing climate cha...

  2. The treat of global climate change has important implications throughout the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hejazi, R.

    2008-01-01

    Energy in general is essential for economic and social development, prosperity, health and security of citizens. of the other hand, world population over the last 10 years has increased by more than 12%, and now it is exactly about 6.4 billion people and it means more demand for energy. Meanwhile, global primary energy consumption has seen an increase of 20%. Energy supply has some sources and unfortunately most of them have impact on life cycle in biosphere. However, the developed countries, that are only 16% in the population in 2000, consume the energy of 80%. This article deals with the threat of global climate change and its implications throughout the world

  3. Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Mission EARTH (GME) program delivers climate change science content, pedagogy, and data resources to K12 educators, future teachers, and professional development providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrom, T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation will include a series of visuals that discuss how hands-on learning activities and field investigations from the the Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Mission EARTH (GME) program deliver climate change science content, pedagogy, and data resources to K12 educators, future teachers, and professional development providers. The GME program poster presentation will also show how teachers strengthen student preparation for Science, Technology, Engineering, Art and Mathematics (STEAM)-related careers while promoting diversity in the future STEM workforce. In addition to engaging students in scientific inquiry, the GME program poster will show how career exploration and preparation experiences is accomplished through direct connection to scientists and real science practices. The poster will show which hands-on learning activities that are being implemented in more than 30,000 schools worldwide, with over a million students, teachers, and scientists collecting environmental measurements using the GLOBE scientific protocols. This poster will also include how Next Generation Science Standards connect to GME learning progressions by grade strands. The poster will present the first year of results from the implementation of the GME program. Data is currently being agrigated by the east, midwest and westen regional operations.

  4. Experts' workshop on critical issues in the science of global climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    A summary is given of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association's Workshop on 'Critical issues in the science of global climate change' held in 1994. The topics of the panel sessions were (1) modelling global climate change: capabilities and limitations; (2)the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas concentrations; (3) other factors in predicting climate change; and (4) ecosystem response. (UK)

  5. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  6. Global energy efficiency governance in the context of climate politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, J.; Ivanova, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper argues that energy efficiency and conservation is a noncontroversial, critical, and equitable option for rich and poor alike. Although there is growing scientific and political consensus on its significance as an important option at global and national level, the political momentum for taking action is not commensurate with the potential in the sector or the urgency with which measures need to be taken to deal with climate change. The current global energy (efficiency) governance framework is diffuse. This paper submits that there are four substantive reasons why global governance should play a complementary role in promoting energy efficiency worldwide. Furthermore, given that market mechanisms are unable to rapidly mobilize energy efficiency projects and that there are no clear vested interests in this field which involves a large number of actors, there is need for a dedicated agency to promote energy efficiency and conservation. This paper provides an overview of energy efficiency options presented by IPCC, the current energy efficiency governance structure at global level, and efforts taken at supranational and national levels, and makes suggestions for a governance framework.

  7. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  8. Global markets and the differential effects of climate and weather on conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, K. C.; Hsiang, S. M.; Cane, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Both climate and weather have been attributed historically as possible drivers for violence. Previous empirical studies have either focused on isolating local idiosyncratic weather variation or have conflated weather with spatially coherent climatic changes. This paper provides the first study of the differential impacts of climate and weather variation by employing methods developed in earlier work linking the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the onset of civil conflicts. By separating the effects of climate from local weather, we are able to test possible mechanisms by which atmospheric changes can cause violence. It is generally difficult to separate the effect of year-to-year climate variations from other global events that might drive conflict. We avoid this problem by examining the set of tropical countries that are strongly teleconnected to ENSO. For this region, the ENSO cycle parallels the common year-to-year pattern of violence. Using ENSO, we isolate the influence of climatic changes from other global determinants of violence and compare it with the effect of local weather variations. We find that while climate affects the onset of civil conflicts in teleconnected countries, local weather has no significant effect. Productivity overall as well as across major sectors is more affected by local weather than by climatic variation. This is particularly evident in the agricultural sector where total value and cereal yield decline much greater from a 1°C increase in local temperature than a 1°C increase in ENSO. However, when examining the effect on food prices, we find that ENSO is associated with a large and statistically significant increase in cereal prices but no effect from hotter local temperatures. Altogether, this evidence points toward the ability of global and regional commodity markets to insure against the effects of local weather variation and their limitations in containing losses from aggregate shocks such as El Nino events. We posit

  9. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-10-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  10. Enhancing climate literacy through the use of an interdisciplinary global change framework and conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Zoehfeld, K.; Mitchell, K.; Levine, J.; White, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate change and how to mitigate the causes and consequences of anthropogenic activities are essential components of the Next Generations Science Standards. To comprehend climate change today and why current rates and magnitudes of change are of concern, students must understand the various factors that drive Earth system processes and also how they interrelate. The Understanding Global Change web resource in development from the UC Museum of Paleontology will provide science educators with a conceptual framework, graphical models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS aligned, interdisciplinary, climate change curricula. To facilitate students learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system of ongoing processes, the Understanding Global Change site will provide explicit conceptual links for the causes of climate change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation), Earth system processes (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and the changes scientists measure in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The conceptual links among topics will be presented in a series of storyboards that visually represent relationships and feedbacks among components of the Earth system and will provide teachers with guides for implementing NGSS-aligned climate change instruction that addresses physical science, life sciences, Earth and space science, and engineering performance expectations. These visualization and instructional methods are used by teachers during professional development programs at UC Berkeley and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and are being tested in San Francisco Bay Area classrooms.

  11. Global climate change and the equity-efficiency puzzle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, Alan S.; Stephan, Gunter

    2005-01-01

    There is a broad consensus that the costs of abatement of global climate change can be reduced efficiently through the assignment of quota rights and through international trade in these rights. There is, however, no consensus on whether the initial assignment of emissions permits can affect the Pareto-optimal global level of abatement. This paper provides some insight into the equity-efficiency puzzle. Qualitative results are obtained from a small-scale model; then quantitative evidence of separability is obtained from MERGE, a multiregion integrated assessment model. It is shown that if all the costs of climate change can be expressed in terms of GDP losses, Pareto-efficient abatement strategies are independent of the initial allocation of emissions rights. This is the case sometimes described as 'market damages'. If, however, different regions assign different values to nonmarket damages such as species losses, different sharing rules may affect the Pareto-optimal level of greenhouse gas abatement. Separability may then be demonstrated only in specific cases (e.g. identical welfare functions or quasi-linearity of preferences or small shares of wealth devoted to abatement)

  12. Impacts of continental arcs on global carbon cycling and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. T.; Jiang, H.; Carter, L.; Dasgupta, R.; Cao, W.; Lackey, J. S.; Lenardic, A.; Barnes, J.; McKenzie, R.

    2017-12-01

    On myr timescales, climatic variability is tied to variations in atmospheric CO2, which in turn is driven by geologic sources of CO2 and modulated by the efficiency of chemical weathering and carbonate precipitation (sinks). Long-term variability in CO2 has largely been attributed to changes in mid-ocean ridge inputs or the efficiency of global weathering. For example, the Cretaceous greenhouse is thought to be related to enhanced oceanic crust production, while the late Cenozoic icehouse is attributed to enhanced chemical weathering associated with the Himalayan orogeny. Here, we show that continental arcs may play a more important role in controlling climate, both in terms of sources and sinks. Continental arcs differ from island arcs and mid-ocean ridges in that the continental plate through which arc magmas pass may contain large amounts of sedimentary carbonate, accumulated over the history of the continent. Interaction of arc magmas with crustal carbonates via assimilation, reaction or heating can significantly add to the mantle-sourced CO2 flux. Detrital zircons and global mapping of basement rocks shows that the length of continental arcs in the Cretaceous was more than twice that in the mid-Cenozoic; maps also show many of these arcs intersected crustal carbonates. The increased length of continental arc magmatism coincided with increased oceanic spreading rates, placing convergent margins into compression, which favors continental arcs. Around 50 Ma, however, nearly all the continental arcs in Eurasia and North America terminated as India collided with Eurasia and the western Pacific rolled back, initiating the Marianas-Tonga-Kermadec intra-oceanic subduction complex and possibly leading to a decrease in global CO2 production. Meanwhile, extinct continental arcs continued to erode, resulting in regionally enhanced chemical weathering unsupported by magmatic fluxes of CO2. Continental arcs, during their magmatic lifetimes, are thus a source of CO2, driving

  13. Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

    2006-12-01

    Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the

  14. Global Software Development : - Software Architecture - Organization - Communication

    OpenAIRE

    Førde, Dan Sørensen

    2003-01-01

    Our globalized world has an impact on almost any area of our lives. The globalization affecting the business running around the globe, and forces employees and managers to think of new ways of doing their business. Globalization in the software development industry increased through the 1990s and is still increasing. The Internet makes the collaboration possible and the developers do not need to be co-located to work together on a common software development project. The ...

  15. ECONOMY GLOBALIZATION AND TRANSNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT

    OpenAIRE

    Maida Mušović; Azra Ćatović; Aferdita Crnišanin

    2013-01-01

    Evidence of globalization can be seen everywhere: at home, at work, in major department stores, newspapers and business journals, the monthly government statistics, and academic literature. These processes have led to a global understanding of the business and the concept of transnational development. This paper will put emphasis on the impact of globalization on business in the world and on markets in the region, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of globalization politics in terms ...

  16. A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

    2018-02-01

    Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

  17. Climate Change | Page 10 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about The Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development. Language English. Read more about Solutions d'adaptation liées aux changements climatiques et à l'eau. Language French. Read more about Adaptation to ...

  18. Climate Change | Page 29 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This case study discusses how climate change adaptation can be incorporated into local community development. Research led by the NGO Initiatives pour un développement intégré et durable found that farmers need irrigation support, better access to agro-meterological information, and support for climate disaster ...

  19. Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, Randall B; Conant, Richard T; Sircely, Jason; Thornton, Philip K; Herrero, Mario

    2018-03-01

    Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m -2  year -1 in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m -2  year -1 ). Responses vary substantially from place-to-place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (-46% in sub-Saharan western Africa) and Australia (-17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., -18% in sub-Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peppe, D.J.; Royer, D.L.; Cariglino, B.; Oliver, S.Y.; Newman, S.; Leight, E.; Enikolopov, G.; Fernandez-Burgos, M.; Herrera, F.; Adams, J.M.; Correa, E.; Currano, E.D.; Erickson, J.M.; Hinojosa, L.F.; Hoganson, J.W.; Iglesias, A.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Johnson, K.R.; Jordan, G.J.; Kraft, N.J.B.; Lovelock, E.C.; Lusk, C.H.; Niinemets, U.; Penuelas, J.; Rapson, G.; Wing, S.L.; Wright, I.J.

    2011-01-01

    Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (??4.0 vs 4.8??C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships. ?? 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist ?? 2011 New Phytologist Trust.