WorldWideScience

Sample records for demography

  1. Evolutionary Demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levitis, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    of biological and cultural evolution. Demographic variation within and among human populations is influenced by our biology, and therefore by natural selection and our evolutionary background. Demographic methods are necessary for studying populations of other species, and for quantifying evolutionary fitness......Demography is the quantitative study of population processes, while evolution is a population process that influences all aspects of biological organisms, including their demography. Demographic traits common to all human populations are the products of biological evolution or the interaction...

  2. Crossroads of demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Stanovništvo (Population journal, launched by the Center for demographic research in Belgrade in 1963. The anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on developments and trends in demography as a discipline, thus the paper points out certain specifics of these developments. The specifics discussed mirror the author's choice, which was guided primarily by the criterion of interestingness, but also by the intention to make a survey. Hence points about the development of demography are backed by insights made by a number of other demographers. The major source of references were papers and speeches given on similar occasions - anniversaries of journals, anniversaries of associations of demographers, as well as special issues of journals dedicated to theory and methodology. Certain points are also made based on other sources of reference. The major part of the paper is related to transformations of demography, which has started as a predominantly formal discipline and has developed into a social and interdisciplinary field. Topical and methodological expansion of demography induces mixed reactions among demographers. Ones welcome its diversification, whereas others see such changes as signs of abandoning the essence of demography. This makes it harder and harder to define the area of demographic research. Changes in demography are mostly studied from the standpoint of polarized dimensions: quantitative-qualitative, macro-micro, and, in the context of diversification, formal demography vs. population studies. Another important segment of development trends in demography is that of improving its vocabulary, which is affected by other fields related to demography. Terminological changes are also related to the specification of certain branches and subfields of demography. For instance, anthropological and spatial demography have roots in earlier development phases of demography. Still, these terms

  3. Family and household demography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.C.; Zeng, Yi

    2009-01-01

    Households are groups of people that co-reside and share some resources. Families are households of related individuals. Household and family demography is the study of these primary social groups or social units, and in particular of group membership and the relationships between members of the

  4. The anthropological demography of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Hutter

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a collection of related research studies on the anthropological demography of Europe. Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography that uses anthropological theory and methods to provide a better understanding of demographic phenomena in current and past populations. Its genesis and ongoing growth lies at the intersection of demography and socio-cultural anthropology and with their efforts to understand population processes: mainly fertility, migration, and mortality. Both disciplines share a common research subject, namely human populations, and they focus on mutually complementary aspects. The authors of this paper focus on the differences between the disciplines of anthropology and demography, the emergence of anthropological demography and its theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects. In addition, they critically summarize the contributions that were presented in the first workshop of the Working Group on Anthropological Demography of Europe of the European Association for Population Studies, held in Rostock in Fall 2005 and reflect on how these papers add to the further development of anthropological demography in Europe, i.e. elaborating the epistemology of anthropological demography; applying additional theoretical perspectives to better understand demographic behaviour in Europe ; illustrating the way in which culture plays a role in case studies on European demographic behaviour; and emphasizing the need for a holistic approach to data collection and the added value of triangulating quantitative and qualitative analyses.

  5. Serbian demographers on demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rašević Mirjana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The objective of this paper is to collect the opinions of the leading demographers in Serbia on four significant matters. The matters are: development, state and future of demography, the successfulness of researchers in this scientific discipline, improvement of the Stanovništvo journal, as well as the population priority of our society and range of population policies. Method: A qualitative interview was chosen as the instrument for data collection. Namely, a structured interview, based on nine questions was sent by e-mail to eleven addresses of relevant demographers in the second half of October 2013. The basic reason for sending questions by e-mail was the aspiration to obtain authentic replies which require time for contemplation. Ten completed questionnaires were returned within two weeks. On the one hand, an integral picture on the chosen themes for research was attempted to be obtained in the analysis of received opinions to certain groups of questions and on the other hand to portray the spectrum of different observations. The responses of our prominent demographers were analyzed and compared to clearly pronounced standpoints of eminent demographers published in world journals on similar themes and with findings of internet researches among members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Results: The results show that there is a high level of consent among demographers in Serbia regarding the well positioning of demography in relation to other social studies and its good perspectives. The interviewed experts see the future of demography in its integration with a wide circle of sciences, the application of demography and/or greater engagement of researchers in carrying out public policies. However, the estimations of the interviewed demographers as regards the development and state of demography in Serbia are divided. Although a large number of topics had been listed, migrations and population

  6. Anthropology and demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bošković Aleksandar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an outline of the relationship between anthropology and demography, sometimes depicted as "long, tortured, often ambivalent, and sometimes passionate." Although early anthropologists (primarily British social anthropologists routinely made use of demographic data, especially in their studies of kinship, the two disciplines gradually drifted away from each other. The re-approachment took place from 1960s, and the last fifteen years saw more intensive cooperation and more insights about possible mutual benefits that could be achieved through combining of methodologies and revision of some theoretical assumptions, primarily through anthropological demography. As summarized by Laura Bernardi and Inge Hutter, "Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography that uses anthropological theory and methods to provide a better understanding of demographic phenomena in current and past populations. Its genesis and ongoing growth lies at the intersection of demography and socio-cultural anthropology and with their efforts to understand population processes: mainly fertility, migration, and mortality. Both disciplines share a common research subject, namely human populations, and they focus on mutually complementary aspects" (2007: 541. In the first part of the paper, the author presents some general considerations, like the one that "demography is one of the best understood and predictable parts of human behavior, even if demographers still find themselves unable to predict accurately when parameters will change in interesting ways, such as the ′the baby boom′ or the shift to later childbeanng in the 1970s and 1980s North America" (Howell, 1986: 219. Nancy Howell also noted the importance of demographic anthropology, because, in her words "if we knew, reliably, the birth and death probability schedules of particular populations, we would know a great deal about their size, age composition, growth rate. And with just a

  7. [Romanian demography (1975-1989)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trebici, V

    1990-01-01

    The author describes developments in the study of demography in Romania over the period 1975-1989. The books and articles mentioned are classified by subject. The author notes that although few full-length monographs were published during the Ceausescu years, a steady stream of demographic articles appeared, most of which were published in the journal Viitorul Social, now retitled Sociologie Romaneasca.

  8. Formal demography of families and households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.; van Imhoff, E.; Wright, James D.

    2015-01-01

    ‘Family and household demography’ differs from traditional demography in that it explicitly recognizes and studies relationships between individuals. Formal demography focuses on the definition and measurement of families and households, and modeling of types, number, and composition of families and

  9. Introducing the new business demography statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Karen Grierson; Andrew Allen

    2008-01-01

    Introducing the new business demography statisticsA new National Statistics series waspublished on 28 November 2008 bythe Offi ce for National Statistics (ONS),providing data on business births,deaths and survival rates, called BusinessDemography: Enterprise Births andDeaths. The Department for Business,Enterprise & Regulatory Reform (BERR)also published its series Business start upsand closures: VAT registrations andde-registrations in 2007 on the sameday. The year 2008 is the final update t...

  10. Changing demography of Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Silva, S

    1986-06-01

    The point to be made in this article about the changing demography of Sri Lanka is that demographic conditions (an older population and growth rate of 1.6) are favorable for economic growth. Planning for economic growth is demonstrated in discussing trends and their relationship to economic development rather than providing a macroeconomic analysis. The 1st demographic characteristic of importance is the age structure of the population, which identifies labor force potential, dependents, and those not economically active in order to calculate required social services. Consumer expenditure patterns are affected, as well as educational costs. The rapid mortality decline of the 1940's and the high fertility up to the 1960's created a broad based age structure that swelled student populations and labor force (unemployment). The 1980's is marked by 39% 15 years in 1981 versus 35% in 1971, and 6.4$ 60 years in 1981 versus 6.6% in 1971. Anticipated trends based on either 2.1, 2.5, or 2.9 children/mother indicate that the population structure would remain the same except for those 0-14 years. This amounts to 20-21.3 million by 2001 and 5.5-6.7 million 15 years. Economic planning is affected by the following age groups: preschoolers, school age children, working population, and old age population. A gradual decline in preschoolers would eventually lead to a 9% population versus a 13% in 2001. 23% of the current population of 5-14 year olds will decrease after 1996 with slow or medium growth to 19-21%. The next 2 decades will experience a swelling of the working age population from 9.56 million to 12.7 million, which was 15 years ago the total population figure. The rate change is from 58.2% to 60-63%. By 2001 the 60 year old population will be 9% (1.8 million) or equal to those 5 years. Attention, thus, needs to be paid to the equitability of distribution of services and improvement in quality rather than expansion. New jobs need to be created to prevent high unemployment

  11. Gender inequality: The challenge of contemporary demography

    OpenAIRE

    Šobot Ankica

    2010-01-01

    Gender perspective is a heuristic device in researching social phenomena, and gender inequality is a social fact which requires an adequate answer. Also, social differences between women and men are examined as relevant factors of demographic phenomena. The contemporary demography is opening up space not only for the gender aspect, but also for gender inequality as a relevant research topic. This paper discusses the possibilities of demographic approach to studying social inequality between w...

  12. Economics of population versus economic demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Tkachenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article specifies the correlation between economic demography and the economy of population as the most important scientific areas of modern research. It is concluded that the Russian scientific community lags in the development of these sciences from the world scientific thought. Special attention is paid to the works and ideas of S. Kuznets and Amartya Sen as outstanding researchers of the interrelationships between the population and the economy. It is emphasized that their contribution was not only theoretical but also of practical importance. The importance of G. Myrdal’s works for modern studies of the consequences of population aging is considered. The article examines foreign training courses on “Population Economics”, presented at the Universities of Wisconsin and McMaster, their analysis led to the conclusion that the preparation of textbooks on courses is less productive than the use of scientific articles in journals, containing more recent ideas and achievements of science. The author considers the system, proposed in the course Michel Grignon and Byron G. Spencer «The Economics of Population» more preferable. The article substantiates the opinion that the economic theory of well-being should be the core of the population economy. It is concluded that the differences between economic demography and the economy of population are not just differences between the micro- and macro levels, as some authors write, but the transition to large scales and entropy.The author identifies three most important areas of demo-economic research, which include research in the field of human capital, international economic migration, especially remittance, analysis of the stratification of the population and society by the income in the global and national economies. One can single out the general area of interests of the population economy and economic demography in which these sciences are almost impossible to divide and in which only

  13. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...

  14. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...

  15. Demography of a forest elephant population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkalo, Andrea K.; Wrege, Peter H.

    2018-01-01

    African forest elephants face severe threats from illegal killing for ivory and bushmeat and habitat conversion. Due to their cryptic nature and inaccessible range, little information on the biology of this species has been collected despite its iconic status. Compiling individual based monitoring data collected over 20 years from the Dzanga Bai population in Central African Republic, we summarize sex and age specific survivorship and female age specific fecundity for a cohort of 1625 individually identified elephants. Annual mortality (average = 3.5%) and natality (average = 5.3%) were lower and markedly less variable relative to rates reported for savanna elephant populations. New individuals consistently entered the study system, leading to a 2.5% average annual increase in the registered population. Calf sex ratios among known birth did not differ from parity. A weak seasonal signal in births was detected suggesting increased conceptions during the wet season. Inter-calf intervals and age of primiparity were longer relative to savanna elephant populations. Within the population, females between the ages of 25–39 demonstrated the shortest inter-calf intervals and highest fecundity, and previous calf sex had no influence on the interval. Calf survivorship was high (97%) the first two years after birth and did not differ by sex. Male and female survival began to differ by the age of 13 years, and males demonstrated significantly lower survival relative to females by the age of 20. It is suspected these differences are driven by human selection for ivory. Forest elephants were found to have one of the longest generation times recorded for any species at 31 years. These data provide fundamental understanding of forest elephant demography, providing baseline data for projecting population status and trends. PMID:29447207

  16. Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Michael S

    2015-01-01

    The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

  17. Demography of Dall's sheep in northwestern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleckner, Christopher; Udevitz, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.; Shults, Brad S.

    2003-01-01

    largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.

  18. Soviet theories of economic demography: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P

    1983-06-01

    At this time Soviet demographic scientists maintain the position that population problems may in fact exist temporarily under socialism but that the planning principle will allow society to resolve population problems, through the use of the administrative, moral, and economic levers (subsidies, government policies, propaganda, education) emphasized by Urlanis (1974) and others. For planners to deal effectively with population management, the determinants of fertility and labor force participation must be established. The foundations of Soviet theories of human capital and fertility were laid by several writers. For the sake of simplicity, these are referred to as the Urlanis-Strumilin model, named after 2 pioneer researchers in Soviet demography and manpower economics. The formulations are based upon the writings of Strumlin (1964) and Urlanis (1974), supplemented by writings of numerous other Soviet researchers. Although their models avoid neoclassical terms such as marginal utility and income and price elasticities, they clearly employ these concepts. The Urlanis-Strumilin model, reduced to its basic elements, is a direct household utility maximizing model. The husband and wife, the household decision makers, must select optimal levels of child "quantity," child "quality," leisure, their own human capital (further education and training), and other goods. The Soviet theory recognizes that an increase in household income will increase relatively the demands for income elastic goods. The model postulates that the demand for child quality is inversely related to the price of children. The price of children is the opportunity cost of children, the major element of which is the income foregone by the mother in the course of childbearing and childrearing. The child quantity demand schedule has elastic and inelastic portions. The marginal utility of the 1st child is great. The marginal utilities of higher order children decline substantially. Families with at least 1

  19. Statistical methods with applications to demography and life insurance

    CERN Document Server

    Khmaladze, Estáte V

    2013-01-01

    Suitable for statisticians, mathematicians, actuaries, and students interested in the problems of insurance and analysis of lifetimes, Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance presents contemporary statistical techniques for analyzing life distributions and life insurance problems. It not only contains traditional material but also incorporates new problems and techniques not discussed in existing actuarial literature. The book mainly focuses on the analysis of an individual life and describes statistical methods based on empirical and related processes. Coverage ranges from analyzing the tails of distributions of lifetimes to modeling population dynamics with migrations. To help readers understand the technical points, the text covers topics such as the Stieltjes, Wiener, and Itô integrals. It also introduces other themes of interest in demography, including mixtures of distributions, analysis of longevity and extreme value theory, and the age structure of a population. In addi...

  20. Predation risk affects reproductive physiology and demography of elk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Christianson, David; Liley, Stewart; Winnie, John A

    2007-02-16

    Elk (Cervus elaphus) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem alter patterns of aggregation, habitat selection, vigilance, and foraging in the presence of wolves (Canis lupus). Antipredator behaviors like these can reduce predation risk but are also likely to carry costs. Data from five elk populations studied for 16 site years showed that progesterone concentrations (from 1489 fecal samples) declined with the ratio of elk to wolves. In turn, progesterone concentrations were a good predictor of calf recruitment in the subsequent year. Together, these data suggest that wolves indirectly affect the reproductive physiology and the demography of elk through the costs of antipredator behavior.

  1. Gendered Authorship and Demographic Research : An Analysis of 50 Years of Demography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krapf, Sandra; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Wolf, Katharina

    2016-01-01

    Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America, has been given the highest rating among demographic journals by the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Our aim here is to investigate the development of research subfields and female authorship in Demography over the last

  2. Demography of Honors: The Census of U.S. Honors Programs and Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Richard I.; Smith, Patricia J.; Cognard-Black, Andrew J.

    2017-01-01

    Beginning in 2013 and spanning four research articles, we have implemented an empirical analysis protocol for honors education that is rooted in demography (Scott; Scott and Smith; Smith and Scott "Growth"; Smith and Scott, "Demography"). The goal of this protocol is to describe the structure and distribution of the honors…

  3. Demography and ecology of nuclear power plant location

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefanescu, P.; Ghitescu, P.

    1997-01-01

    To select and licence a NPP site, as well as, once built, to run it, both demography and ecology of the geographical zone are crucial factors to take into account. On the other side the location and running of a NPP is a major factor in the economic and social development of NPP site surroundings. Meanwhile the population distribution around the NPP site has a determining role on intervention and rehabilitation plans. Risk and danger studies should be done for initial situation as well as during NPP running. The character of radioactive risks and the importance of possible consequences of a hypothetical nuclear accident which could affect a big Nuclear Power Plant request a special attention to population distribution around the plant site and surroundings. Therefore safety studies to locate and licence a site should refer to demography and ecology. Available data examination will permit to locate NPP in less-populated and ecologically not-concerning zones. On-site investigation should identify the population groups to watch for in order to estimate the results of a normal evaluation. The inquires will give reference primary data before NPP construction starts. Also they evaluate the possibility of short term population retain on location in case of an accident. (authors)

  4. A work bibliography on native food consumption, demography and lifestyle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, C.E.; Lee, W.J.

    1992-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a bibliography for the Native American tribe participants in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to use. The HEDR Project's primary objective is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Eight Native American tribes are responsible for estimating daily and seasonal consumption of traditional foods, demography, and other lifestyle factors that could have affected the radiation dose received by tribal members. This report provides a bibliography of recorded accounts that tribal researchers may use to verify their estimates. The bibliographic citations include references to information on the specific tribes, Columbia River plateau ethnobotany, infant feeding practices and milk consumption, nutritional studies and radiation, tribal economic and demographic characteristics (1940--1970), research methods, primary sources from the National Archives, regional archives, libraries, and museums

  5. A work bibliography on native food consumption, demography and lifestyle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, C.E.; Lee, W.J.

    1992-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a bibliography for the Native American tribe participants in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to use. The HEDR Project's primary objective is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Eight Native American tribes are responsible for estimating daily and seasonal consumption of traditional foods, demography, and other lifestyle factors that could have affected the radiation dose received by tribal members. This report provides a bibliography of recorded accounts that tribal researchers may use to verify their estimates. The bibliographic citations include references to information on the specific tribes, Columbia River plateau ethnobotany, infant feeding practices and milk consumption, nutritional studies and radiation, tribal economic and demographic characteristics (1940--1970), research methods, primary sources from the National Archives, regional archives, libraries, and museums.

  6. Coalescent Processes with Skewed Offspring Distributions and Nonequilibrium Demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matuszewski, Sebastian; Hildebrandt, Marcel E; Achaz, Guillaume; Jensen, Jeffrey D

    2018-01-01

    Nonequilibrium demography impacts coalescent genealogies leaving detectable, well-studied signatures of variation. However, similar genomic footprints are also expected under models of large reproductive skew, posing a serious problem when trying to make inference. Furthermore, current approaches consider only one of the two processes at a time, neglecting any genomic signal that could arise from their simultaneous effects, preventing the possibility of jointly inferring parameters relating to both offspring distribution and population history. Here, we develop an extended Moran model with exponential population growth, and demonstrate that the underlying ancestral process converges to a time-inhomogeneous psi-coalescent. However, by applying a nonlinear change of time scale-analogous to the Kingman coalescent-we find that the ancestral process can be rescaled to its time-homogeneous analog, allowing the process to be simulated quickly and efficiently. Furthermore, we derive analytical expressions for the expected site-frequency spectrum under the time-inhomogeneous psi-coalescent, and develop an approximate-likelihood framework for the joint estimation of the coalescent and growth parameters. By means of extensive simulation, we demonstrate that both can be estimated accurately from whole-genome data. In addition, not accounting for demography can lead to serious biases in the inferred coalescent model, with broad implications for genomic studies ranging from ecology to conservation biology. Finally, we use our method to analyze sequence data from Japanese sardine populations, and find evidence of high variation in individual reproductive success, but few signs of a recent demographic expansion. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

  7. The East Midlands in 2006: the demography of the East Midlands

    OpenAIRE

    Lawton, C

    2006-01-01

    The East Midlands in 2006 is the evidence base that was produced to underpin the devleopment of the regional economic strategy, A Flourishing Region. This document presents detailed analysis of the demography of the East Midlands.

  8. The implications of environmental variability on caribou demography: theoretical considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A. Schaefer

    1991-10-01

    Full Text Available Random environmental influences, such as snow cover, are widely regarded as an integral feature of caribou population dynamics. We conducted computer simulations to explore the ramifications of such stochastic variability for caribou demography. We devised 4 models with increasing levels of complexity: Model 1, density-independence under different levels of stochasticity and r; Model 2, non-linear effect of snow cover on r; Model 3, non-linear effect of snow cover on r and stochasticity as a function of population size; and Model 4, non-linear effect of snow cover on r, stochasticity as a funciton of population size, and density-dependence according to the logistic equation. The results of Model 1 indicated that nearly all caribou populations subject only to environmental vagaries experienced either extincition or irruption. Model 2 revealed that non-linear effect of snow cover depressed the realised r as a function of population size. Finally, Model 4 suggested long-term population as previously reported in literature, but with reduced chance of overshooting K under moderate to high environmental variability.

  9. Land use and demography survey for a large superfund site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattemer-Frey, H.A.; Quinlan, R.E.; Krieger, G.R.; Lau, V.

    1994-01-01

    Inconsistencies in the exposure assessment process often arise when risk assessors are forced to make assumptions about the frequency and duration of exposures in the absence of site-specific data. EPA encourages the collection of site-specific data so that risks can be more accurately assessed on a case-by-case basis. Typically, estimates of exposure frequency and duration represent the largest source of uncertainty for non-food related exposure pathways, while the largest source of uncertainty for foodchain pathways stems primarily from estimating the fraction ingested that originated from the affected area. A Land Use and Demography Survey was conducted to obtain site-specific information on: (1) the amount of time individuals spend indoors, outdoors, and on or near affected areas; (2) recreational use of surface water bodies on-site; (3) the percentage of food items consumed that were raised or produced locally; and (4) other behavioral patterns and activities that could influence their exposure to site-related chemicals. More than 300 households were randomly selected and the residents personally interviewed. A wide variety of individuals ranging from children to elderly residents with vastly different recreational, behavioral, and consumption patterns were interviewed. This paper discusses the survey results in relation to EPA standard default exposure assumptions

  10. Culture and Demography: From Reluctant Bedfellows to Committed Partners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachrach, Christine A.

    2015-01-01

    Demography and culture have had a long but ambivalent relationship. Cultural influences are widely recognized as important for demographic outcomes, but are often “backgrounded” in demographic research. I argue that progress towards a more successful integration is feasible and suggest a network model of culture as a potential tool. The network model bridges both traditional (holistic and institutional) and contemporary (tool kit) models of culture used in the social sciences and offers a simple vocabulary for the diverse set of cultural concepts such as attitudes, beliefs and norms, and quantitative measures of how culture is organized. The proposed model conceptualizes culture as a nested network of meanings which are represented by schemas that range in complexity from simple concepts to multifaceted cultural models. I illustrate the potential value of a model using accounts of the cultural changes underpinning the transformation of marriage in the U.S. and point to developments in the social, cognitive and computational sciences that could facilitate the application of the model in empirical demographic research. PMID:24338643

  11. Disentangling the effects of demography and selection in human history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajich, Jason E; Hahn, Matthew W

    2005-01-01

    Demographic events affect all genes in a genome, whereas natural selection has only local effects. Using publicly available data from 151 loci sequenced in both European-American and African-American populations, we attempt to distinguish the effects of demography and selection. To analyze large sets of population genetic data such as this one, we introduce "Perlymorphism," a Unix-based suite of analysis tools. Our analyses show that the demographic histories of human populations can account for a large proportion of effects on the level and frequency of variation across the genome. The African-American population shows both a higher level of nucleotide diversity and more negative values of Tajima's D statistic than does a European-American population. Using coalescent simulations, we show that the significantly negative values of the D statistic in African-Americans and the positive values in European-Americans are well explained by relatively simple models of population admixture and bottleneck, respectively. Working within these nonequilibrium frameworks, we are still able to show deviations from neutral expectations at a number of loci, including ABO and TRPV6. In addition, we show that the frequency spectrum of mutations--corrected for levels of polymorphism--is correlated with recombination rate only in European-Americans. These results are consistent with repeated selective sweeps in non-African populations, in agreement with recent reports using microsatellite data.

  12. Matrix dimensions bias demographic inferences: implications for comparative plant demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Plotkin, Joshua B

    2010-12-01

    While the wealth of projection matrices in plant demography permits comparative studies, variation in matrix dimensions complicates interspecific comparisons. Collapsing matrices to a common dimension may facilitate such comparisons but may also bias the inferred demographic parameters. Here we examine how matrix dimension affects inferred demographic elasticities and how different collapsing criteria perform. We analyzed 13 x 13 matrices representing nine plant species, collapsing these matrices (i) into even 7 x 7, 5 x 5, 4 x 4, and 3 x 3 matrices and (ii) into 5 x 5 matrices using different criteria. Stasis and fecundity elasticities increased when matrix dimension was reduced, whereas those of progression and retrogression decreased. We suggest a collapsing criterion that minimizes dissimilarities between the original- and collapsed-matrix elasticities and apply it to 66 plant species to study how life span and growth form influence the relationship between matrix dimension and elasticities. Our analysis demonstrates that (i) projection matrix dimension has significant effects on inferred demographic parameters, (ii) there are better-performing methods than previously suggested for standardizing matrix dimension, and (iii) herbaceous perennial projection matrices are particularly sensitive to changes in matrix dimensionality. For comparative demographic studies, we recommend normalizing matrices to a common dimension by collapsing higher classes and leaving the first few classes unaltered.

  13. Snowscape Ecology: Linking Snow Properties to Wildlife Movements and Demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prugh, L.; Verbyla, D.; van de Kerk, M.; Mahoney, P.; Sivy, K. J.; Liston, G. E.; Nolin, A. W.

    2017-12-01

    Snow enshrouds up to one third of the global land mass annually and exerts a major influence on animals that reside in these "snowscapes," (landscapes covered in snow). Dynamic snowscapes may have especially strong effects in arctic and boreal regions where dry snow persists for much of the year. Changes in temperature and hydrology are transforming northern regions, with profound implications for wildlife that are not well understood. We report initial findings from a NASA ABoVE project examining effects of snow properties on Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli). We used the MODSCAG snow fraction product to map spring snowline elevations and snow-off dates from 2000-2015 throughout the global range of Dall sheep in Alaska and northwestern Canada. We found a negative effect of spring snow cover on Dall sheep recruitment that increased with latitude. Using meteorological data and a daily freeze/thaw status product derived from passive microwave remote sensing from 1983-2012, we found that sheep survival rates increased in years with higher temperatures, less winter precipitation, fewer spring freeze-thaw events, and more winter freeze-thaw events. To examine the effects of snow depth and density on sheep movements, we used location data from GPS-collared sheep and a snowpack evolution model (SnowModel). We found that sheep selected for shallow, fluffy snow at high elevations, but they selected for denser snow as depth increased. Our field measurements identified a critical snow density threshold of 329 (± 18 SE) kg/m3 to support the weight of Dall sheep. Thus, sheep may require areas of shallow, fluffy snow for foraging, while relying on hard-packed snow for winter travel. These findings highlight the importance of multiple snowscape properties on wildlife movements and demography. The integrated study of snow properties and ecological processes, which we call snowscape ecology, will greatly improve global change forecasting.

  14. Gendered Authorship and Demographic Research: An Analysis of 50 Years of Demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapf, Sandra; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Wolf, Katharina

    2016-08-01

    Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America, has been given the highest rating among demographic journals by the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Our aim here is to investigate the development of research subfields and female authorship in Demography over the last 50 years. We find that female authorship in Demography has risen considerably since the 1980s and that currently a woman is about as likely as a man to be the sole or the first author of a paper published in the journal. However, we find some differences by subfield. Women seem to be overrepresented in the "family and household" research subfield but underrepresented in the "mortality and health" and "data and methods" categories.

  15. COMADRE: a global data base of animal demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R; Archer, C Ruth; Bein, Christoph; de Buhr, Hendrik; Farack, Claudia; Gottschalk, Fränce; Hartmann, Alexander; Henning, Anne; Hoppe, Gabriel; Römer, Gesa; Ruoff, Tara; Sommer, Veronika; Wille, Julia; Voigt, Jakob; Zeh, Stefan; Vieregg, Dirk; Buckley, Yvonne M; Che-Castaldo, Judy; Hodgson, David; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Caswell, Hal; Vaupel, James W

    2016-03-01

    The open-data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open-data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world-wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, an open-data online repository, which in its version 1.0.0 contains data on 345 species world-wide, from 402 studies with a total of 1625 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. We provide R code to some of these examples. We introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. Its open-data nature, together with its ancillary information, will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other aspects of the rich animal diversity, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and

  16. Population issues in economic planning: uses of demography in business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, R J

    1984-01-01

    Economists use demography in planning and forecasting business needs. As a bank, Westpac uses the information for its own internal business purposes and to assess general economic trends. Externally, the bank is expected by government and the public to have some authoritative views on the state of the economy. To form these views, it is necessary to understand a very wide array of statistical indicators, including demographic statistics. The main population issues of concern are: size, location, and changes in the population of Australia as a whole and by State; labor force (including projections); age profile of Australia and by State. The major source for this information is the Australian Bureau of Statistics. More detailed patterns often emerge, particularly for individual States, from papers prepared by others. This information is used by Westpac in 3 main planning areas and 2 broad assessment areas: planning -- location of bank branches, products/services offered, and marketing of products/services; and assessment -- economic outlook (labor force, housing needs, demand for funds) and specific industries. Recently, Westpac restructured its organization to cater to the changing needs of customers and the changing geographic patterns of population spread. The bank now has 4 major groups: retail financial services for personal and commercial markets; corporate and international; management services; and group planning (includes economic department). To offer products that fit the market, the bank needs to know the characteristics of the population by age, spending patterns, lifestyle preferences, and investment needs. Within Australia, a relatively new service offered by most financial institutions, which is directly related to population issues, is a counseling service for retirees. Westpac has a product called Club 55, which is a package of services designed for persons who have retired or are planning to retire. Another clearly perceived community need is for

  17. Demography-adjusted tests of neutrality based on genome-wide SNP data

    KAUST Repository

    Rafajlović, Marina

    2014-08-01

    Tests of the neutral evolution hypothesis are usually built on the standard model which assumes that mutations are neutral and the population size remains constant over time. However, it is unclear how such tests are affected if the last assumption is dropped. Here, we extend the unifying framework for tests based on the site frequency spectrum, introduced by Achaz and Ferretti, to populations of varying size. Key ingredients are the first two moments of the site frequency spectrum. We show how these moments can be computed analytically if a population has experienced two instantaneous size changes in the past. We apply our method to data from ten human populations gathered in the 1000 genomes project, estimate their demographies and define demography-adjusted versions of Tajima\\'s D, Fay & Wu\\'s H, and Zeng\\'s E. Our results show that demography-adjusted test statistics facilitate the direct comparison between populations and that most of the differences among populations seen in the original unadjusted tests can be explained by their underlying demographies. Upon carrying out whole-genome screens for deviations from neutrality, we identify candidate regions of recent positive selection. We provide track files with values of the adjusted and unadjusted tests for upload to the UCSC genome browser. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  18. Demography and population status of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, Nicholas J.; Regher, Eric V; Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the demography and population status of the Western Hudson Bay (WH) polar bear subpopulation for the period 1984-2011, using live-recapture data from research studies and management actions, and dead-recovery data from polar bears harvested for subsistence purposes or removed during human-bear conflicts.

  19. Demography of northern flying squirrels informs ecosystem management of western interior forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John F. Lehmkuhl; Keith D. Kistler; James S. Begley; John. Boulanger

    2006-01-01

    We studied northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) demography in the eastern Washington Cascade Range to test hypotheses about regional and local abundance patterns and to inform managers of the possible effects of fire and fuels management on flying squirrels. We quantified habitat characteristics and squirrel density, population trends, and...

  20. Demography and life history characteristics of two honey bee races (Apis mellifera).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winston, Mark L; Dropkin, Jennifer A; Taylor, Orley R

    1981-03-01

    Intra-colony demography and life history characteristics of neotropical Africanized and temperate European honey bearaces were compared under simulated feral conditions. Major differences in colony demography were found which nevertheless resulted in some similar reproductive characteristics. European colonies were larger than Africanized colonies, had more rapid initral growth rates of worker populations, showed better survivorship of brood and adult workers, and differed in patterns of worker age distribution. However, both races were similar in the brood and adult populations when colonies swarmed, the frequency and timing of swarming, and the number of workers in prime swarms. The factors most important in determining these colony growth and reproductive patterns were likely worker mortality rates, climate, and resource availability.

  1. The Demography of Royal Navy Surgeons: Some Views on the Process of Prosopography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher H Myers

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study is a brief social biography and demography of British naval doctors during the nineteenth century, asking why Scottish-educated surgeons were so prominent.  Understanding the demography and changing dynamics of naval surgeons’ labor illuminates the complex relationship among the military, discrimination, and nationalism that shaped this influential labor market. This study reviews how to collect demographic information from multiple types of sources: university archives, matriculation records, digitized medical journals, and student rolls.  It also uses chi-square tests to show the significance of the demographic information collected.  The results show us the entangled relationship between database conceptualization, data collection, and data analysis.  

  2. Stress and body condition are associated with climate and demography in Asian elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Hannah S; Mar, Khyne U; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2015-01-01

    Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar.

  3. Regions of homozygosity in the porcine genome: consequence of demography and the recombination landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirte Bosse

    Full Text Available Inbreeding has long been recognized as a primary cause of fitness reduction in both wild and domesticated populations. Consanguineous matings cause inheritance of haplotypes that are identical by descent (IBD and result in homozygous stretches along the genome of the offspring. Size and position of regions of homozygosity (ROHs are expected to correlate with genomic features such as GC content and recombination rate, but also direction of selection. Thus, ROHs should be non-randomly distributed across the genome. Therefore, demographic history may not fully predict the effects of inbreeding. The porcine genome has a relatively heterogeneous distribution of recombination rate, making Sus scrofa an excellent model to study the influence of both recombination landscape and demography on genomic variation. This study utilizes next-generation sequencing data for the analysis of genomic ROH patterns, using a comparative sliding window approach. We present an in-depth study of genomic variation based on three different parameters: nucleotide diversity outside ROHs, the number of ROHs in the genome, and the average ROH size. We identified an abundance of ROHs in all genomes of multiple pigs from commercial breeds and wild populations from Eurasia. Size and number of ROHs are in agreement with known demography of the populations, with population bottlenecks highly increasing ROH occurrence. Nucleotide diversity outside ROHs is high in populations derived from a large ancient population, regardless of current population size. In addition, we show an unequal genomic ROH distribution, with strong correlations of ROH size and abundance with recombination rate and GC content. Global gene content does not correlate with ROH frequency, but some ROH hotspots do contain positive selected genes in commercial lines and wild populations. This study highlights the importance of the influence of demography and recombination on homozygosity in the genome to understand

  4. Demography management and challenges of alternating shift work; Demographiemanagement und Herausforderungen der Wechselschicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzkowiak, Matthias [Arbeitsmedizin Rheinisches Revier, RWE Power AG, Bergheim (Germany); Schmitz, Michael [Personalcontrolling/-strategie, RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany); Feldhaus, Christian [Arbeitsmedizin/Betriebliches Gesundheitsmanagement, RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    RWE Power has launched a comprehensive process to develop strategies for future demography management. A special focus is on the challenges which result from the age structure of the workforce in connection with alternating shift work. A comprehensive catalogue of measures was developed which is currently being implemented. Among other things, it includes programmes for the employees on issues like health and ergonomics or optimisation of existing shift systems. Several follow-up projects are also included. The measures presented in this paper are meant to help in responding proactively to future demographic trends and the resulting challenges. (orig.)

  5. Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2003-08-01

    The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

  6. Retrospective analysis of attitudes to ageing in the Economist: apocalyptic demography for opinion formers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Ruth; Williams, Caroline; O'Neill, Desmond

    2009-12-08

    To investigate the description of older people and ageing in a major weekly newspaper, influential in political and financial circles, to see whether it reflected ageing in a balanced manner, and to what extent it indulged in apocalyptic demography-the portrayal of population ageing as a financial burden rather than a scientific advance. Electronic search of the digital archive of the Economist of articles published between January 1997 and April 2008. Main outcomes measures Categorisation of articles as portraying population ageing as a burden or a benefit or with a balanced view. Of 6306 identified articles, 262 were relevant. Most featured pensions, demography, and politics. Of these 262, 64% portrayed population ageing as a burden and 12% as a benefit; 24% had a balanced view. Most articles therefore showed a predominantly ageist view of older people as a burden on society, often portraying them as frail non-contributors. Recurrent themes included pension and demographic "time bombs" and future unsustainable costs of health care for older people. This negative view of older people might be influential in shaping the attitudes of readers, who include opinion formers in political and economic circles. Gerontologists (including geriatricians) need to engage with influential media, as well as helping to promote a professional development of journalists that is informed and knowledgeable about the negative impact of ageism on the wellbeing of older people.

  7. Late Holocene Lake Level Fluctuations at Laguna Arapa, Peru and Connections to Human Demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Werne, J. P.; Arkush, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Ferland, T.; Holmes, E.; Puhnaty, C.; Woods, A.

    2016-12-01

    The relationship between variations in hydroclimate and human demography on the Peruvian Altiplano has significant implications for understanding how people in the past have adapted to changes in freshwater resources. To investigate these human-environmental interactions, this project presents a 2,000 year sediment record from Laguna Arapa, a large lake that is Titicaca. Using sedimentology and stratigraphy as well as a suite of organic geochemical proxies including fecal 5β-stanols and leaf waxes (long chain n-alkanoic acids), we aim to tie together proxies of human population with indicators of regional hydroclimate. Preliminary results of sedimentology and stratigraphy show notable transitions from sand to silt to clay, suggesting rising lake level sequences at 500 and 700 AD. The last 1,300 years of sediment are characterized by alternating layers of organic rich material with abundant charcoal and black inorganic clay, suggesting intermittent periods of aridity and/or anthropogenic fire-setting. These layers are particularly frequent during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was characterized by dry and warm conditions. These results agree well with other records of hydroclimate from regional lakes as well as accumulation rate and temperature from the Quelccaya ice cap. Organic geochemical work is currently in progress and shows promise for linking together proxies of human demography with hydroclimate to understand the relationship between human settlement and climate change.

  8. DIM SUM: demography and individual migration simulated using a Markov chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jeremy M; Savidge, Kevin; McTavish, Emily Jane B

    2011-03-01

    An increasing number of studies seek to infer demographic history, often jointly with genetic relationships. Despite numerous analytical methods for such data, few simulations have investigated the methods' power and robustness, especially when underlying assumptions have been violated. DIM SUM (Demography and Individual Migration Simulated Using a Markov chain) is a stand-alone Java program for the simulation of population demography and individual migration while recording ancestor-descendant relationships. It does not employ coalescent assumptions or discrete population boundaries. It is extremely flexible, allowing the user to specify border positions, reactions of organisms to borders, local and global carrying capacities, individual dispersal kernels, rates of reproduction and strategies for sampling individuals. Spatial variables may be specified using image files (e.g., as exported from gis software) and may vary through time. In combination with software for genetic marker simulation, DIM SUM will be useful for testing phylogeographic (e.g., nested clade phylogeographic analysis, coalescent-based tests and continuous-landscape frameworks) and landscape-genetic methods, specifically regarding violations of coalescent assumptions. It can also be used to explore the qualitative features of proposed demographic scenarios (e.g. regarding biological invasions) and as a pedagogical tool. DIM SUM (with user's manual) can be downloaded from http://code.google.com/p/bio-dimsum. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. Women, Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Udi

    2018-04-01

    Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables' influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics-namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables-female-related predictors, in particular-have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.

  10. Evolutionary demography and the population history of the European early Neolithic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shennan, Stephen

    2009-04-01

    In this paper I propose that evolutionary demography and associated theory from human behavioral ecology provide a strong basis for explaining the available evidence for the patterns observed in the first agricultural settlement of Europe in the 7th-5th millennium cal. BC, linking together a variety of what have previously been disconnected observations and casting doubt on some long-standing existing models. An outline of relevant aspects of life history theory, which provides the foundation for understanding demography, is followed by a review of large-scale demographic patterns in the early Neolithic, which point to rapid population increase and a process of demic diffusion. More localized socioeconomic and demographic patterns suggesting rapid expansion to local carrying capacities and an associated growth of inequality in the earliest farming communities of central Europe (the Linear Pottery Culture, or LBK) are then outlined and shown to correspond to predictions of spatial population ecology and reproductive skew theory. Existing models of why it took so long for farming to spread to northern and northwest Europe, which explain the spread in terms of the gradual disruption of hunter-gatherer ways of life, are then questioned in light of evidence for population collapse at the end of the LBK. Finally, some broader implications of the study are presented, including the suggestion that the pattern of an initial agricultural boom followed by a bust may be relevant in other parts of the world.

  11. Reproductive demography of a temperate protogynous and herbivorous fish, Odax pullus (Labridae, Odacini)

    KAUST Repository

    Laman Trip, Elizabeth; Raubenheimer, David; Clements, Kendall D.; Choat, John Howard

    2011-01-01

    A common view is that, in marine fishes, herbivory and sex change are subject to physiological constraints at high latitudes, which are likely to affect growth rates and reproductive outputs. The present study examines the reproductive demography of Odax pullus, an herbivorous and protogynous species of temperate New Zealand. We establish an otolith-based methodology for age estimation and investigate sex-specific growth, longevity and age-based reproductive events. Individuals achieved a maximum age of 11 years, reached 85% of adult body size (455mm FL) within the first 3.5 years of life, were sexually mature by the age of 1.11.5 years and changed sex at 2.83.5 years, indicating fast simultaneous somatic and reproductive growth. There was no significant difference in growth or body size between the sexes. Ovary weight of spawning females increased significantly with size and age, suggesting the presence of size- and age-fecundity skews underlying the absence of sex change in larger and older females. Testes of reproductively active males comprised less than 1% of bodyweight, suggesting pair-spawning and little sperm competition. The present study provides metrics to support comparisons of the demography of this temperate protogynous and herbivorous labrid across spatial or temporal strata. © CSIRO 2011.

  12. Reproductive demography of a temperate protogynous and herbivorous fish, Odax pullus (Labridae, Odacini)

    KAUST Repository

    Laman Trip, Elizabeth

    2011-03-07

    A common view is that, in marine fishes, herbivory and sex change are subject to physiological constraints at high latitudes, which are likely to affect growth rates and reproductive outputs. The present study examines the reproductive demography of Odax pullus, an herbivorous and protogynous species of temperate New Zealand. We establish an otolith-based methodology for age estimation and investigate sex-specific growth, longevity and age-based reproductive events. Individuals achieved a maximum age of 11 years, reached 85% of adult body size (455mm FL) within the first 3.5 years of life, were sexually mature by the age of 1.11.5 years and changed sex at 2.83.5 years, indicating fast simultaneous somatic and reproductive growth. There was no significant difference in growth or body size between the sexes. Ovary weight of spawning females increased significantly with size and age, suggesting the presence of size- and age-fecundity skews underlying the absence of sex change in larger and older females. Testes of reproductively active males comprised less than 1% of bodyweight, suggesting pair-spawning and little sperm competition. The present study provides metrics to support comparisons of the demography of this temperate protogynous and herbivorous labrid across spatial or temporal strata. © CSIRO 2011.

  13. Eastern wood-pewee (Contopus virens) breeding demography across a gradient of savanna, woodland, and forest in the Missouri Ozarks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah W. Kendrick; Frank R. Thompson; Jennifer L. Reidy

    2013-01-01

    Better knowledge of bird response to savanna and woodland restoration is needed to inform management of these communities. We related temporal and habitat variables to breeding demography and densities of the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens) across a gradient of savanna, woodland, and forest. We determined nest success, clutch size, young fledged...

  14. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-10-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

  15. Comparison of multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) demography in monoculture and mosaic agricultural habitat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sluydts, Vincent; Davis, Stephen; Mercelis, Saskia

    2009-01-01

    . The multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is a major pest in rural areas throughout sub-Saharan Africa. It appears difficult to control since it has an opportunistic diet and the capacity for explosive population growth. We compared demographic rates between a population in an extensive maize monoculture...... in the mosaic compared to the monoculture. The probability of capture was higher in the mosaic structured grid for both the subadult and adult part of the population. The model selection procedure demonstrated that a model without an effect of habitat in both survival and seniority received most support from...... the data. No differences in the multimammate mouse demography between the monoculture and mosaic structured habitat were observed which had a substantial impact on population dynamics. This means that rodent management options in both agricultural systems could focus on the same aspects of rodent ecology....

  16. A non-marine source of variability in Adélie Penguin demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, William R.; Patterson-Fraser, Donna L.; Ribic, Christine; Schofield, Oscar; Ducklow, Hugh

    2013-01-01

    A primary research objective of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has been to identify and understand the factors that regulate the demography of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae). In this context, our work has been focused on variability in the marine environment on which this species depends for virtually all aspects of its life history (Ainley, 2002). As we show here, however, there are patterns evident in the population dynamics of Adélie penguins that are better explained by variability in breeding habitat quality rather than by variability in the marine system. Interactions between the geomorphology of the terrestrial environment that, in turn, affect patterns of snow deposition, drive breeding habitat quality.

  17. A work bibliography on native food consumption, demography and lifestyle. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, C.E.; Lee, W.J.

    1992-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a bibliography for the Native American tribe participants in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to use. The HEDR Project`s primary objective is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy`s Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Eight Native American tribes are responsible for estimating daily and seasonal consumption of traditional foods, demography, and other lifestyle factors that could have affected the radiation dose received by tribal members. This report provides a bibliography of recorded accounts that tribal researchers may use to verify their estimates. The bibliographic citations include references to information on the specific tribes, Columbia River plateau ethnobotany, infant feeding practices and milk consumption, nutritional studies and radiation, tribal economic and demographic characteristics (1940--1970), research methods, primary sources from the National Archives, regional archives, libraries, and museums.

  18. Owned dog ecology and demography in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisiel, Luz Maria; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Sargeant, Jan M; Coe, Jason B; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Reynoso Palomar, Alejandro; Canales Vargas, Erick J; Greer, Amy L

    2016-12-01

    Dog overpopulation in developing countries has negative implications for the health and safety of people, including the transmission of zoonotic diseases, physical attacks and intimidation to humans and animals, as well as impacts on canine welfare. Understanding the ecology and demographic characteristics of a dog population can help in the planning and monitoring of canine population control programs. Little data exist regarding demography and dynamics of domestic dog populations in semi-urban areas in Mexico. A cross-sectional study was carried out between October 21 and November 7, 2015, to characterize the dog ecology and demography in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A face-to-face survey was used to collect data from randomly selected households in four contiguous communities using stratified two-stage cluster sampling. Within each household, adults answered questions related to their dogs and their experiences with dog bites and aggression. A total of 328 households were interviewed, representing a participation rate of 90.9% (328/361) and 1,450 people. Approximately 65.2% of the households owned one or more dogs, with a mean of 1.3 (SD=1.5) and 2.0 (SD=1.5) owned dogs in all participant households and dog-owning households, respectively. The human: owned dog ratio for all participant households was 3.4:1 (1450/428), and for the dog-owning households was 2.3:1 (984/428). The owned dog male: female ratio was 1.4:1 (249/179). Approximately 74.4% (95.0% CI=69.8% - 78.7%) of the owned dogs were older than one year (mean age: 2.9 years; SD=2.5). The mean age of owned female dogs at first litter was 1.9 years (SD=1.2) and the mean litter size was 4.2 puppies (SD=2.1). Approximately 36.9% (95.0% CI=31.8% - 46.4%) of the females were spayed, and 14.1% (95.0% CI=10.7% - 19.7%) of the males were neutered. Only 44.9% (95.0% CI=40.1% - 49.7%) were always confined when unsupervised. Approximately 84.4% (95.0% CI=80.6% - 87.7%) were reported to have been vaccinated

  19. Leaf development and demography explain photosynthetic seasonality in Amazon evergreen forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jin; Albert, Lauren; Lopes, Aline; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Hayek, Matthew; Wiedemann, Kenia T.; Guan, Kaiyu; Stark, Scott C.; Christoffersen, Bradley; Prohaska, Neill; Tavares, Julia V.; Marostica, Suelen; Kobayashi, Hideki; Ferreira, Maurocio L.; Campos, Kleber Silva; da Silva, Rodrigo; Brando, Paulo M.; Dye, Dennis G.; Huxman, Travis E.; Huete, Alfredo; Nelson, Bruce; Saleska, Scott

    2016-01-01

    In evergreen tropical forests, the extent, magnitude, and controls on photosynthetic seasonality are poorly resolved and inadequately represented in Earth system models. Combining camera observations with ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at forests across rainfall gradients in Amazônia, we show that aggregate canopy phenology, not seasonality of climate drivers, is the primary cause of photosynthetic seasonality in these forests. Specifically, synchronization of new leaf growth with dry season litterfall shifts canopy composition toward younger, more light-use efficient leaves, explaining large seasonal increases (~27%) in ecosystem photosynthesis. Coordinated leaf development and demography thus reconcile seemingly disparate observations at different scales and indicate that accounting for leaf-level phenology is critical for accurately simulating ecosystem-scale responses to climate change.

  20. Diagnosing the dangerous demography of manta rays using life history theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas K. Dulvy

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and devil rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography within the context of other sharks and rays.Methods. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to estimate the intrinsic risk of extinction (as indexed by the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase rmax for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler–Lotka demographic model. This model requires only three traits to calculate the maximum intrinsic population growth rate rmax: von Bertalanffy growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity. To account for the uncertainty in life history parameters, we created plausible parameter ranges and propagate these uncertainties through the model to calculate a distribution of the plausible range of rmax values.Results. The maximum population growth rate rmax of manta ray is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median rmax of 0.116 year−1 95th percentile [0.089–0.139] is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information.Discussion. In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value large-bodied sharks and rays the combination of very low population growth rates of manta rays, combined with the high value of their gill rakers and the international nature of trade, is highly likely to lead to rapid depletion and potential local extinction unless a rapid conservation management response occurs worldwide. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to derive important insights into the demography extinction risk of data-poor species using well-established life

  1. Coupling mammalian demography to climate through satellite time series of plant phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    The seasonality of plant productivity governs the demography of primary and secondary consumers, and in arid ecosystems primary production is constrained by water availability. We relate the behavior, demography, and spatial distribution of large mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed indices of climate and vegetation across the western United States from 2000-2014. Terrain and plant community composition moderate the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in spatial variation in ecosystem susceptibility to water stress. Herbivores track these patterns through habitat selection during key periods such as birthing and migration. Across a broad climatological gradient, timing of the start of growing season explains 75% of the variation in herbivore birth timing and 56% of the variation in neonatal survival rates. Initiation of autumn migration corresponds with the end of the growing season. Although indirectly coupled to primary production, carnivore home range size and population density are strongly correlated with plant productivity and growing-season length. Satellite measures of green reflectance during the peak of the growing season explain over 84% of the variation in carnivore home range size and 59% of the variation in density. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming temperatures and shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that increased climatological variability will contribute to fluctuations in the composition and phenology of plant communities. These changes will propagate through consumer trophic levels, manifesting as increased home range area, shifts in the timing of migration, and greater volatility in large mammal populations. Combined with expansion and amplification of human land uses, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict and loss of ecosystem services.

  2. Diagnosing the dangerous demography of manta rays using life history theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulvy, Nicholas K; Pardo, Sebastián A; Simpfendorfer, Colin A; Carlson, John K

    2014-01-01

    Background. The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and devil rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography within the context of other sharks and rays. Methods. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to estimate the intrinsic risk of extinction (as indexed by the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase r max) for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler-Lotka demographic model. This model requires only three traits to calculate the maximum intrinsic population growth rate r max: von Bertalanffy growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity. To account for the uncertainty in life history parameters, we created plausible parameter ranges and propagate these uncertainties through the model to calculate a distribution of the plausible range of r max values. Results. The maximum population growth rate r max of manta ray is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median r max of 0.116 year(-1) 95th percentile [0.089-0.139] is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information. Discussion. In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value large-bodied sharks and rays the combination of very low population growth rates of manta rays, combined with the high value of their gill rakers and the international nature of trade, is highly likely to lead to rapid depletion and potential local extinction unless a rapid conservation management response occurs worldwide. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to derive important insights into the demography extinction risk of data-poor species using well-established life history theory.

  3. Demography and sex work characteristics of female sex workers in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McPherson Sam

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs. We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them. Methods Detailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population. Results A total of 5010 (75.4%, 1499 (22.5%, and 139 (2.1% street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20–34 years (75.6%, belonging to scheduled caste (35.3% and scheduled tribe (10.5%, illiterate (74.7%, and of those separated/divorced (30.7% was higher among FSWs (p 5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12–15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively. Conclusion These data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India.

  4. Demography and sex work characteristics of female sex workers in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandona, Rakhi; Dandona, Lalit; Kumar, G Anil; Gutierrez, Juan Pablo; McPherson, Sam; Samuels, Fiona; Bertozzi, Stefano M

    2006-01-01

    Background The majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs). We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them. Methods Detailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population. Results A total of 5010 (75.4%), 1499 (22.5%), and 139 (2.1%) street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20–34 years (75.6%), belonging to scheduled caste (35.3%) and scheduled tribe (10.5%), illiterate (74.7%), and of those separated/divorced (30.7%) was higher among FSWs (p 5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12–15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years) and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years) was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively). Conclusion These data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India. PMID:16615869

  5. Demography of a population collapse: the Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, P.W.; Runge, M.C.

    2002-01-01

    We studied the demography of a population of Northern Idaho ground squirrels (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus) in Adams Co., Idaho. The population was completely censused yearly from 1987 to 1999, during which time it declined from 272 to 10 animals. The finite population growth rate, based on a Leslie matrix model of average life-history parameters, was only 0.72 (i.e., significantly conifers to encroach on inhabited meadows, shrinking them and closing dispersal routes. The proximate cause of the population's collapse was mortality of older breeding females, which reduced the mean age of breeders. Younger females had lower average pregnancy rates and litter sizes. To place our results in context we developed a new, general classification of anthropogenic population declines, based on whether they are caused by changes in the means of the life-history parameters (blatant disturbances), their variances (inappropriate variations), or the correlations among them (evolutionary traps). Many S. b. brunneus populations have disappeared in recent years, apparently due to blatant disturbances, especially loss of habitat and changes in food-plant composition, resulting in inadequate prehibernation nutrition and starvation overwinter. In addition, our study population may have been caught in an evolutionary trap, because the vegetational cues that could potentially enable the animals to adjust reproduction to the anticipated food supply no longer correlate with availability of fat-laden seeds.

  6. Demography-based adaptive network model reproduces the spatial organization of human linguistic groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capitán, José A.; Manrubia, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of human linguistic groups presents a number of interesting and nontrivial patterns. The distributions of the number of speakers per language and the area each group covers follow log-normal distributions, while population and area fulfill an allometric relationship. The topology of networks of spatial contacts between different linguistic groups has been recently characterized, showing atypical properties of the degree distribution and clustering, among others. Human demography, spatial conflicts, and the construction of networks of contacts between linguistic groups are mutually dependent processes. Here we introduce an adaptive network model that takes all of them into account and successfully reproduces, using only four model parameters, not only those features of linguistic groups already described in the literature, but also correlations between demographic and topological properties uncovered in this work. Besides their relevance when modeling and understanding processes related to human biogeography, our adaptive network model admits a number of generalizations that broaden its scope and make it suitable to represent interactions between agents based on population dynamics and competition for space.

  7. Demography of a breeding population of whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perz, Johanna

    I used a GIS raster layer of an area in the Churchill, Manitoba region to investigate the effect of breeding habitat on demography and density of Whimbrel from 2010 through 2013. Program MARK was used to quantify adult and daily nest survival. Apparent annual survival of 0.73 +/- 0.06 SE (95% CI = 0.60-0.83) did not significantly differ between sexes or habitats and was lower than expected based on longevity records and estimates for other large-bodied shorebirds. Nest success, corrected for exposure days, was highly variable, ranging from a low of 3% (95% CI = 0-12%) in 2011 to a high of 71% (95% CI = 54-83%) in 2013. The highest rate of nest survival occurred in the spring with the warmest mean temperature. I developed a generalized linear model (GLM) with a negative-binomial distribution from random plots that were surveyed for abundance to extrapolate a local breeding population size of 410 +/- 230 SE and density of 3.2 birds per square km +/- 1.8 SE. The result of my study suggests that other aspects of habitat not captured by the land cover categories may be more important to population dynamics.

  8. Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sear, Rebecca; Lawson, David W; Kaplan, Hillard; Shenk, Mary K

    2016-04-19

    Decades of research on human fertility has presented a clear picture of how fertility varies, including its dramatic decline over the last two centuries in most parts of the world. Why fertility varies, both between and within populations, is not nearly so well understood. Fertility is a complex phenomenon, partly physiologically and partly behaviourally determined, thus an interdisciplinary approach is required to understand it. Evolutionary demographers have focused on human fertility since the 1980s. The first wave of evolutionary demographic research made major theoretical and empirical advances, investigating variation in fertility primarily in terms of fitness maximization. Research focused particularly on variation within high-fertility populations and small-scale subsistence societies and also yielded a number of hypotheses for why fitness maximization seems to break down as fertility declines during the demographic transition. A second wave of evolutionary demography research on fertility is now underway, paying much more attention to the cultural and psychological mechanisms underpinning fertility. It is also engaging with the complex, multi-causal nature of fertility variation, and with understanding fertility in complex modern and transitioning societies. Here, we summarize the history of evolutionary demographic work on human fertility, describe the current state of the field, and suggest future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  9. Demography and dog-human relationships of the dog population in Zimbabwean communal lands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, J R; Bingham, J

    2000-10-14

    Dogs are Zimbabwe's primary vector for rabies, and the majority live in communal lands (traditional agropastoralist rural areas). In 1994, a household questionnaire survey was conducted to provide baseline data on the demography and dog-human relationships of the dogs in the communal lands. The survey showed that all the dogs were owned, and there was no evidence of a feral population. They were unrestricted and semi-dependent on people. The numbers of dogs per capita varied little in each communal land, resulting in higher dog densities in communal lands with higher human densities, and indicating that people were not intolerant of dogs at higher densities. The population turnover was rapid: the life expectancy of the dogs was 1.1 years, the mean age 2.0 years, and 71.8 per cent died in their first year. The population was heavily skewed towards juveniles, with 40.8 per cent aged less than 12 months. Despite the high juvenile mortality, the population was growing by 6.52 per cent per annum. It was estimated that in 1994 there were 1.36 million dogs in communal lands.

  10. Mismatch between birth date and vegetation phenology slows the demography of roe deer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floriane Plard

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition.

  11. Confronting the stigma of eugenics: genetics, demography and the problems of population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsden, Edmund

    2009-12-01

    Building upon the work of Thomas Gieryn and Erving Goffman, this paper will explore how the concepts of stigma and boundary work can be usefully applied to history of population science. Having been closely aligned to eugenics in the early 20th century, from the 1930s both demographers and geneticists began to establish a boundary between their own disciplines and eugenic ideology. The eugenics movement responded to this process of stigmatization. Through strategies defined by Goffman as 'disclosure' and 'concealment', stigma was managed, and a limited space for eugenics was retained in science and policy. Yet by the 1960s, a revitalized eugenics movement was bringing leading social and biological scientists together through the study of the genetic demography of characteristics such as intelligence. The success of this programme of 'stigma transformation' resulted from its ability to allow geneticists and demographers to conceive of eugenic improvement in ways that seemed consistent with the ideals of individuality, diversity and liberty. In doing so, it provided them with an alternative, and a challenge, to more radical and controversial programmes to realize an optimal genotype and population. The processes of stigma attribution and management are, however, ongoing, and since the rise of the nature-nurture controversy in the 1970s, the use of eugenics as a 'stigma symbol' has prevailed.

  12. Eugenics from the New Deal to the Great Society: genetics, demography and population quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsden, Edmund

    2008-12-01

    The relationship between biological and social scientists as regards the study of human traits and behavior has often been perceived in terms of mutual distrust, even antipathy. In the interwar period, population study seemed an area that might allow for closer relations between them-united as they were by a concern to improve the eugenic quality of populations. Yet these relations were in tension: by the early post-war era, social demographers were denigrating the contributions of biologists to the study of population problems as embodying the elitist ideology of eugenics. In response to this loss of credibility, the eugenics movement pursued a simultaneous program of withdrawal and expansion: its leaders helped focus concern with biological quality onto the developing field of medical genetics, while at the same moment, extended their scope to improving the social quality of populations through birth control policies, guided by demography. While this approach maintained boundaries between the social and the biological, in the 1960s, a revitalized American Eugenics Society helped reunite leading demographers and geneticists. This paper will assess the reasons for this period of influence for eugenics, and explore its implications for the social and biological study of human populations.

  13. King penguin demography since the last glaciation inferred from genome-wide data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trucchi, Emiliano; Gratton, Paolo; Whittington, Jason D; Cristofari, Robin; Le Maho, Yvon; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Le Bohec, Céline

    2014-07-22

    How natural climate cycles, such as past glacial/interglacial patterns, have shaped species distributions at the high-latitude regions of the Southern Hemisphere is still largely unclear. Here, we show how the post-glacial warming following the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 18 000 years ago), allowed the (re)colonization of the fragmented sub-Antarctic habitat by an upper-level marine predator, the king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus. Using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing and standard mitochondrial data, we tested the behaviour of subsets of anonymous nuclear loci in inferring past demography through coalescent-based and allele frequency spectrum analyses. Our results show that the king penguin population breeding on Crozet archipelago steeply increased in size, closely following the Holocene warming recorded in the Epica Dome C ice core. The following population growth can be explained by a threshold model in which the ecological requirements of this species (year-round ice-free habitat for breeding and access to a major source of food such as the Antarctic Polar Front) were met on Crozet soon after the Pleistocene/Holocene climatic transition. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  14. Mismatch Between Birth Date and Vegetation Phenology Slows the Demography of Roe Deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plard, Floriane; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Coulson, Tim; Hewison, A. J. Mark; Delorme, Daniel; Warnant, Claude; Bonenfant, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition. PMID:24690936

  15. Application of demography to energy facility development projects. Working Paper No. 39

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krannich, R.S.; Stanfield, G.G.

    1977-01-01

    The emergence of concern regarding socioeconomic consequences of large-scale development projects has resulted in a growing literature directed as estimating the types and levels of various impact dimensions which can be expected to result in human communities experiencing such development. Among these dimensions, a focus on population change has been prevalent. Accurate demographic predictions may be viewed as critical for the adequate comprehension of and preparation for impacts deriving from projects such as energy facility developments. Unfortunately, the state of the art in projecting demographic consequences of energy projects has been generally inadequate. Several of the more influential prior methods for estimating local demographic effects of developing energy facilities are critiqued, although their specific prediction figures are not summarized. The studies reviewed were found to be of dubious practical utility, probably due in part to the failure of basic demography to provide a base of support for applied demographic research. This report sets forth recommendations for the development of a theoretical perspective which would more adequately serve the needs of practitioners attempting to predict local demographic effects of energy facility development

  16. Climatic and biotic stochasticity: disparate causes of convergent demographies in rare, sympatric plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Laurel R

    2007-12-01

    Species with known demographies may be used as proxies, or approximate models, to predict vital rates and ecological properties of target species that either have not been studied or are species for which data may be difficult to obtain. These extrapolations assume that model and target species with similar properties respond in the same ways to the same ecological factors, that they have similar population dynamics, and that the similarity of vital rates reflects analogous responses to the same factors. I used two rare, sympatric annual plants (sand gilia [Gilia tenuiflora arenaria] and Monterey spineflower [Chorizanthe pungens pungens]) to test these assumptions experimentally. The vital rates of these species are similar and strongly correlated with rainfall, and I added water and/or prevented herbivore access to experimental plots. Their survival and reproduction were driven by different, largely stochastic factors and processes: sand gilia by herbivory and Monterey spineflower by rainfall. Because the causal agents and processes generating similar demographic patterns were species specific, these results demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that it is critical to identify the ecological processes generating observed effects and that experimental manipulations are usually needed to determine causal mechanisms. Without such evidence to identify mechanisms, extrapolations among species may lead to counterproductive management and conservation practices.

  17. The Role of Demography and Markets in Determining Deforestation Rates Near Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Christopher P.; Holmes, Christopher; Kramer, Karen; Barnett, Barry; Keitt, Timothy H.

    2009-01-01

    The highland forests of Madagascar are home to some of the world's most unique and diverse flora and fauna and to some of its poorest people. This juxtaposition of poverty and biodiversity is continually reinforced by rapid population growth, which results in increasing pressure on the remaining forest habitat in the highland region, and the biodiversity therein. Here we derive a mathematical expression for the subsistence of households to assess the role of markets and household demography on deforestation near Ranomafana National Park. In villages closest to urban rice markets, households were likely to clear less land than our model predicted, presumably because they were purchasing food at market. This effect was offset by the large number of migrant households who cleared significantly more land between 1989–2003 than did residents throughout the region. Deforestation by migrant households typically occurred after a mean time lag of 9 years. Analyses suggest that while local conservation efforts in Madagascar have been successful at reducing the footprint of individual households, large-scale conservation must rely on policies that can reduce the establishment of new households in remaining forested areas. PMID:19536282

  18. Climate and demography in early prehistory: using calibrated (14)C dates as population proxies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riede, Felix

    2009-04-01

    Although difficult to estimate for prehistoric hunter-gatherer populations, demographic variables-population size, density, and the connectedness of demes-are critical for a better understanding of the processes of material culture change, especially in deep prehistory. Demography is the middle-range link between climatic changes and both biological and cultural evolutionary trajectories of human populations. Much of human material culture functions as a buffer against climatic changes, and the study of prehistoric population dynamics, estimated through changing frequencies of calibrated radiocarbon dates, therefore affords insights into how effectively such buffers operated and when they failed. In reviewing a number of case studies (Mesolithic Ireland, the origin of the Bromme culture, and the earliest late glacial human recolonization of southern Scandinavia), I suggest that a greater awareness of demographic processes, and in particular of demographic declines, provides many fresh insights into what structured the archaeological record. I argue that we cannot sideline climatic and environmental factors or extreme geophysical events in our reconstructions of prehistoric culture change. The implications of accepting demographic variability as a departure point for evaluating the archaeological record are discussed.

  19. The demography of the lizard Tropidurus torquatus (Squamata, Tropiduridae in a highly seasonal Neotropical savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helga C. Wiederhecker

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The demography of a population of Tropidurus torquatus was studied from March 1996 until December 1998, in the Cerrado biome of the Central Brazil, using the method of capture and recapture. Population size, number of incoming individuals in the population, and age structure varied seasonally, reflecting the reproductive cycle of the species. The instantaneous rate of population increase did not differ from zero throughout the study. In general, the permanence rate of juveniles and adults were low, indicating a large turnover of individuals in the population, with a maximum life expectancy of three years. The sex-ratio among adults was biased toward females. Since no bias was observed among juveniles and there was no difference in adults permanence between sexes, we suggestet that the biased adult sex-ratio resulted from a lower permanence of males during a short ontogenetic period, when secondary sexual characteristics develop. When compared to T. itambere, the studied population of T. torquatus attained a higher density and a greater female bias in the sex-ratio. In general, the studied population presented characteristics that, according to life history theory, should be associated with early age at maturity and polyginy: short life expectancy, high population turnover, and female biased sex-ratios.

  20. Effects of attitudes and demography on public support for endangered species conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Anastasiadou, Magdalini; Karavasias, Efstathios

    2017-10-01

    It is critical for managers to understand how attitudes and demography affect public's preferences for species protection for designing successful conservation projects. 1080 adults in Greece were asked to rate pictures of 12 endangered species on aesthetic and negativistic attitudes, and intention to support their conservation. Factor analysis identified a group of animals for which respondents indicated high levels of support for their conservation (red deer, loggerhead sea turtle, brown bear, common pheasant, European ground squirrel, glossy ibis) and a group of animals for which respondents indicated low levels of support (black vulture, great white shark, fire-bellied toad, western barbastelle, Cretan tube web spider, Milos viper). The species that received the highest support were also rated as the most attractive and safest, excluding the fearsome brown bear. Structural models revealed that aesthetic, moralistic and negativistic attitudes were the stronger predictors of support. Aesthetic and moralistic attitudes were positively, and negativistic attitudes negatively, correlated with support for conservation in both groups. Consumptive users scored lower in aesthetics and were less supportive of protection in the high support group, while nonconsumptive users showed the opposite trend. Respondents residing in urban areas deemed animals of high support more attractive and less fearsome and were more supportive of conservation than rural residents in both groups. Females of higher education viewed animals of low support as fearsome, however they supported their conservation. Our study identified popular species that can be used as flagship species to facilitate the implementation of conservation projects. The results of this study could also be used to design a communication and outreach campaign to raise awareness about the ecosystem value of less attractive species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Mitochondrial DNA regionalism and historical demography in the extant populations of Chirocephalus kerkyrensis (Branchiopoda: Anostraca).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketmaier, Valerio; Marrone, Federico; Alfonso, Giuseppe; Paulus, Kirsten; Wiemann, Annika; Tiedemann, Ralph; Mura, Graziella

    2012-01-01

    Mediterranean temporary water bodies are important reservoirs of biodiversity and host a unique assemblage of diapausing aquatic invertebrates. These environments are currently vanishing because of increasing human pressure. Chirocephalus kerkyrensis is a fairy shrimp typical of temporary water bodies in Mediterranean plain forests and has undergone a substantial decline in number of populations in recent years due to habitat loss. We assessed patterns of genetic connectivity and phylogeographic history in the seven extant populations of the species from Albania, Corfu Is. (Greece), Southern and Central Italy. We analyzed sequence variation at two mitochondrial DNA genes (Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16s rRNA) in all the known populations of C. kerkyrensis. We used multiple phylogenetic, phylogeographic and coalescence-based approaches to assess connectivity and historical demography across the whole distribution range of the species. C. kerkyrensis is genetically subdivided into three main mitochondrial lineages; two of them are geographically localized (Corfu Is. and Central Italy) and one encompasses a wide geographic area (Albania and Southern Italy). Most of the detected genetic variation (≈81%) is apportioned among the aforementioned lineages. Multiple analyses of mismatch distributions consistently supported both past demographic and spatial expansions with the former predating the latter; demographic expansions were consistently placed during interglacial warm phases of the Pleistocene while spatial expansions were restricted to cold periods. Coalescence methods revealed a scenario of past isolation with low levels of gene flow in line with what is already known for other co-distributed fairy shrimps and suggest drift as the prevailing force in promoting local divergence. We recommend that these evolutionary trajectories should be taken in proper consideration in any effort aimed at protecting Mediterranean temporary water bodies.

  2. Signals of forest degradation in the demography of common Asian amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy E. Karraker

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Lowland areas in tropical East and Southeast Asia have a long history of conversion from forestland to agricultural land, with many remaining forests being chronically degraded by wood cutting, livestock grazing, and burning. Wetland-breeding amphibians that have evolved in lowland forests in the region have adjusted to changes in habitat composition caused by humans’ activities, and populations continue to persist. However, we have little understanding of the impacts of forest disturbance on these species beyond assessments of abundance and distribution, and species considered to be common and widespread have been largely neglected. Methods We examined body condition and sex ratios of toads (Duttaphrynus melanostictus, predation risk in treefrogs (2 Polypedates spp., and growth and survival of leaf litter frogs (2 Microhyla spp. in agricultural land, degraded forest, and intact forest in two study areas, Thailand and Hong Kong. Results Toad populations exhibited higher body condition and female-biased sex ratios in intact forest. Predation of treefrog embryos by flies was lower in intact and degraded forests than in agricultural land. Embryonic survival and larval growth and survival in leaf litter frogs were lower in intact forests than in agricultural land. Results for each study were similar between study areas. Discussion For three of five of these common amphibian species, we documented signals of forest loss and disturbance in their populations. Although these species occur in disturbed habitats, loss of forest cover continues to degrade aspects of their population demography. We urge conservation biologists to consider that populations of species appearing to be common, widespread, and tolerant of human disturbance may be eroding over time.

  3. Population Structure and Historical Demography of the Oriental River Prawn (Macrobrachium nipponense) in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Ta-Jen; Wang, Daryi; Lee, Ying-Chou; Tzeng, Tzong-Der

    2015-01-01

    The oriental river prawn (Macrobrachium nipponense) is a non-obligatory amphidromous prawn, and it has a wide distribution covering almost the entire Taiwan. Mitochondrial DNA fragment sequences of the cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S rRNA were combined and used to elucidate the population structure and historical demography of oriental river prawn in Taiwan. A total of 202 individuals from six reservoirs and three estuaries were separately collected. Nucleotide diversity (π) of all populations was 0.01217, with values ranging from 0.00188 (Shihmen Reservoir, SMR, northern Taiwan) to 0.01425 (Mingte Reservoir, MTR, west-central Taiwan). All 76 haplotypes were divided into 2 lineages: lineage A included individuals from all sampling areas except SMR, and lineage B included specimens from all sampling locations except Chengching Lake Reservoir (CLR) and Liyu Lake Reservoir (LLR). All F ST values among nine populations were significantly different except the one between Jhonggang River Estuary (JGE, west-central Taiwan) and Kaoping River Estuary (KPE, southern Taiwan). UPGMA tree of nine populations showed two main groups: the first group included the SMR and Tamsui River Estuary (TSE) (both located northern Taiwan), and the second one included the other seven populations (west-central, southern and eastern Taiwan). Demographic analyses implied a population expansion occurred during the recent history of the species. The dispersal route of this species might be from China to west-central and west-southern Taiwan, and then the part individuals belonging to lineage A and B dispersed southerly and northerly, respectively. And then part individuals in west-central Taiwan fell back to and stay at estuaries as the sea level rose about 18,000 years ago. PMID:26716687

  4. Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

  5. Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

  6. Madeiran Arabidopsis thaliana reveals ancient long-range colonization and clarifies demography in Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulgione, Andrea; Koornneef, Maarten; Roux, Fabrice; Hermisson, Joachim; Hancock, Angela M

    2017-12-05

    The study of model organisms on islands may shed light on rare long-range dispersal events, uncover signatures of local evolutionary processes, and inform demographic inference on the mainland. Here, we sequenced the genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana samples from the oceanic island of Madeira. These samples include the most diverged worldwide, likely a result of long isolation on the island. We infer that colonisation of Madeira happened between 70 and 85 kya, consistent with a propagule dispersal model (of size > =10), or with an ecological window of opportunity. This represents a clear example of a natural long-range dispersal event in A. thaliana. Long-term effective population size on the island, rather than the founder effect, had the greatest impact on levels of diversity, and rates of coalescence. Our results uncover a selective sweep signature on the ancestral haplotype of a known translocation in Eurasia, as well as the possible importance of the low phosphorous availability in volcanic soils, and altitude, in shaping early adaptations to the island conditions. Madeiran genomes, sheltered from the complexities of continental demography, help illuminate ancient demographic events in Eurasia. Our data support a model in which two separate lineages of A. thaliana, one originating in Africa and the other from the Caucasus expanded and met in Iberia, resulting in a secondary contact zone there. While previous studies inferred that the westward expansion of A. thaliana coincided with the spread of human agriculture, our results suggest it happened much earlier (20-40 kya). © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  7. Type 2 diabetes in young adults in Central Auckland: demography and complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beig, Junaid; Khanolkar, Manish; Cundy, Tim

    2018-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes (T2D) in young adults is associated with a high risk of diabetes complications. To investigated the demography and the emergence of complications of young adults with T2D in the central Auckland region where there has been substantial immigration. In total, 310 young adults with T2D (Auckland Diabetes Centre in 2015. We documented demographic, anthropometric and metabolic variables and prevalence and the emergence of complications. Three demographic groups accounted for 243 participants (78%): 135 (44%) were migrants of Asian or Pacific Island origin, diagnosed a median 9 years after migration at a mean age of 28 ± 6 years; 88 (29%) were New Zealand-born Pāsifika descent, with a high prevalence of morbid obesity and 37 (12%) had major mental illness or intellectual disability. At diagnosis, the median HbA1c was 80 mmol/mol, and in 28%, it was ≥100 mmol/mol. A median 6 years after diagnosis, 56% had some degree of retinopathy, with the prevalence related both to the duration of diabetes and glycaemic control (P = 0.001). Forty-four percent of subjects had abnormal albuminuria at diagnosis (12% with macroalbuminuria). Increased albuminuria was strongly associated with obesity (P = 0.002). The development of CKD stages 4-5 was related both to the severity of retinopathy and degree of albuminuria at diagnosis (P = 0.0001). Major cardiovascular events were related to the severity of retinopathy at diagnosis (P = 0.0001). New migrants, New Zealand-born Pāsifika and patients with mental illness or an intellectual disability comprise the bulk of young onset T2D. The disease is aggressive, and by the age of 40, patients are already developing advanced complications. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  8. A general population genetic framework for antagonistic selection that accounts for demography and recurrent mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connallon, Tim; Clark, Andrew G

    2012-04-01

    Antagonistic selection--where alleles at a locus have opposing effects on male and female fitness ("sexual antagonism") or between components of fitness ("antagonistic pleiotropy")--might play an important role in maintaining population genetic variation and in driving phylogenetic and genomic patterns of sexual dimorphism and life-history evolution. While prior theory has thoroughly characterized the conditions necessary for antagonistic balancing selection to operate, we currently know little about the evolutionary interactions between antagonistic selection, recurrent mutation, and genetic drift, which should collectively shape empirical patterns of genetic variation. To fill this void, we developed and analyzed a series of population genetic models that simultaneously incorporate these processes. Our models identify two general properties of antagonistically selected loci. First, antagonistic selection inflates heterozygosity and fitness variance across a broad parameter range--a result that applies to alleles maintained by balancing selection and by recurrent mutation. Second, effective population size and genetic drift profoundly affect the statistical frequency distributions of antagonistically selected alleles. The "efficacy" of antagonistic selection (i.e., its tendency to dominate over genetic drift) is extremely weak relative to classical models, such as directional selection and overdominance. Alleles meeting traditional criteria for strong selection (N(e)s > 1, where N(e) is the effective population size, and s is a selection coefficient for a given sex or fitness component) may nevertheless evolve as if neutral. The effects of mutation and demography may generate population differences in overall levels of antagonistic fitness variation, as well as molecular population genetic signatures of balancing selection.

  9. Biological invasion by Myrica faya in Hawaii: Plant demography, nitrogen fixation, ecosystem effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitousek, P.M.; Walker, L.R.

    1989-01-01

    Myrica faya, an introduced actinorhizal nitrogen fixer, in invading young volcanic sites in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. We examined the population biology of the invader and ecosystem-level consequences of its invasion in open-canopied forests resulting from volcanic cinder-fall. Although Myrica faya is nominally dioecious, both males and females produce large amounts of fruit that are utilized by a number of exotic and native birds, particularly the exotic Zosterops japonica. In areas of active colonization, Myrica seed rain under perch trees of the dominant native Metrosideros polymorpha ranged from 6 to 60 seeds m -2 yr -1 ; no seeds were captured in the open. Planted seeds of Myrica also germinated an established better under isolated individuals of Metrosideros than in the open. Diameter growth of Myrica is > 15-fold greater than that of Metrosideros, and the Myrica population is increasing rapidly. Rates of nitrogen fixation were measured using the acetylene reduction assay calibrated with 15 N. Myrica nodules reduced acetylene at between 5 and 20 μmol g -1 h -1 , a rate that extrapolated to nitrogen fixation of 18 kg ha -1 in a densely colonized site. By comparison, all native sources of nitrogen fixation summed to 0.2 kg ha -1 yr -1 , and precipitation added -1 yr -1 . Measurements of litter decomposition and nitrogen release, soil nitrogen mineralization, and plant growth in bioassays all demonstrated that nitrogen fixed by Myrica becomes available to other organisms as well. We conclude that biological invasion by Myrica faya alters ecosystem-level properties in this young volcanic area; at least in this case, the demography and physiology of one species controls characteristics of a whole ecosystem

  10. Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

  11. Oregon Spotted Frog (Rana pretiosa) movement and demography at Dilman Meadow: Implications for future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelgren, Nathan D.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Bowerman, Jay; Adams, Michael J.

    2007-01-01

    From 2001 to 2005, we studied the demography and seasonal movement of Oregon spotted frogs (Rana pretiosa) translocated into created ponds in Dilman Meadow in central Oregon. Our objectives were to inform future monitoring and management at the site, and to elucidate poorly known aspects of the species’ population ecology. Movement rates revealed complementary use of sites seasonally, with one small spring being preferred during winter that was rarely used during the rest of the year. Growth rates were significantly higher in ponds that were not used for breeding, and larger size resulted in significantly higher survival. When variation in survival by size was accounted for there was little variation among ponds in survival. Seasonal estimates of survival were lowest for males during the breeding/post-breeding redistribution period, suggesting a high cost of breeding for males. Overwintering survival for both genders was relatively high. Our study supports others in suggesting Oregon spotted frogs are specific in their overwintering habitat requirements, and that predator-free springs may be of particular value. We suggest that any future monitoring include measures of the rate of pond succession. Demographic monitoring should include metrics of both frog reproduction and survival: counts of egg masses at all ponds during spring, and capture-recapture study of survival in mid and late summer when capture rates are highest. Additional study of early life stages would be particularly useful to broaden our understanding of the species’ ecology. Specifically, adding intensive capture and marking effort after larval transformation in fall would enable a full understanding of the annual life cycle. Complete study of the annual life cycle is needed to isolate the life stages and mechanisms through which Oregon spotted frogs are affected by stressors such as nonnative predators. Dilman Meadow, which lacks many hypothesized stressors, is an important reference for

  12. Functional traits help predict post-disturbance demography of tropical trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.

  13. Border Terriers under primary veterinary care in England: demography and disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Dan G; Darwent, Elisabeth C; Church, David B; Brodbelt, Dave C

    2017-01-01

    The Border Terrier is a working terrier type that is generally considered to be a relatively healthy and hardy breed. This study aimed to characterise the demography and common disorders of Border Terriers receiving veterinary care in England using de-identified electronic patient record data within the VetCompass™ Programme. Annual birth proportion for Border Terriers showed a decreasing trend from 1.46% in 2005 to 0.78% in 2014. The median adult bodyweight for males (10.9 kg, IQR: 9.6-12.3, range: 6.3-25.0) was higher than for females (9.1 kg, IQR: 8.2-10.3, range: 5.2-21.6) ( P  skin disorder (10.17%, 95% CI: 8.60-11.93).Syndromic analysis showed that the most prevalent body locations affected were the head-and-neck (37.75%, 95% CI: 35.14-40.43), abdomen (18.61%, 95% CI: 16.55-20.81) and limb (11.53%, 95% CI: 9.86-13.37). At least one organ system was affected in 834 (62.85%) Border Terriers. The most prevalent organ systems affected were the digestive (32.03%, 95% CI: 29.52-34.61), integument (26.68%, 95% CI: 24.31-29.14), connective/soft tissue (11.15%, 95% CI: 9.51-12.97) and auditory (9.87%, 95% CI: 8.32-11.60). At least one affected pathophysiological process was described in 881 (66.39%) Border Terriers. The most prevalent pathophysiologic processes recorded were inflammation (31.65%, 95% CI: 29.15-34.23), nutritional (9.04%, 95% CI: 7.55-10.72), mass/swelling (8.89%, 95% CI: 7.42-10.55), traumatic (7.99%, 95% CI: 6.59-9.58) and infectious (7.76%, 95% CI: 6.38-9.33). This study documented a trend towards reducing ownership and relatively long-livedness in the Border Terrier. The most common disorders were periodontal disease, overweight/obesity and otitis externa. Predisposition to dental and neurological disease was suggested. These results can provide a comprehensive evidence resource to support breed-based health plans that can contribute positively to reforms to improve health and welfare within the breed.

  14. Effects of drought and prolonged winter on Townsend's ground squirrel demography in shrubsteppe habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horne, Beatrice; Olson, Gail S.; Schooley, Robert L.; Corn, Janelle G.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1997-01-01

    in persistence and density and produced more young per female during the next active season following the drought (1993) than did ground squirrels in grassland habitat, where densities had been significantly higher prior to the drought and prolonged winter.Studies involving habitat comparisons of animal demography should always be placed in the context of long-term weather patterns, because habitat quality rankings based on density, reproduction, and survival may differ with environmental conditions. Physiological effects of environmental “crunches” on consumers may persist beyond the period of influence on food resources, reducing reproductive success and growth rates of future offspring.

  15. Comparative demography of two common scleractinian corals: Orbicella annularis and Porites astreoides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Soto-Santiago

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background Studies directed at understanding the demography and population dynamics of corals are relatively scarce. This limits our understanding of both the dynamics of coral populations and our capacity to develop management and conservation initiatives directed at conserving such ecosystems. Methods From 2012 to 2014, we collected data on the growth, survival, and recruitment rates of two common Caribbean coral species, the stress-tolerant Orbicella annularis and the weedy Porites astreoides. A set of size-based population matrix model was developed for two localities in Northeastern Puerto Rico and used to estimate population growth rates (λ and determine the life cycle transition(s that contribute the most to spatiotemporal differences in λs. The model was parameterized by following the fate of 100 colonies of each species at the two sites for two years. Results Our data indicate that spatial variability in vital rates of both species was higher than temporal variability. During the first year, populations of O. annularis exhibited λs below equilibrium at Carlos Rosario (0.817 and Palomino (0.694, followed by a considerable decline at both sites during the second year (0.700 and 0.667. Populations of P. astreoides showed higher λs than O. annularis during the first census period at Carlos Rosario (0.898 and Palomino (0.894 with a decline at one of the sites (0.681 and 0.893 during the second census period. Colony fate in both species exhibited a significant interaction with respect to location but not to time (G2 = 20.96; df = 3 for O. annularis and G2 = 9.55; df = 3 for P. astreoides. Discussion The similar variability of λs as well as the similar survival rates for both species during the two-year census period (2012–2014 show similar variability on demographic patterns in space and time. Our results suggest that location rather than time is important for the resiliency in coral colonies. Also, P. astreoides will show higher

  16. Socio-demography and medical history as predictors of health-related quality of life of breast cancer survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadas, Amutha; Qureshi, Ahmad Munir; Dominic, Nisha Angela; Botross, Nevein Philip; Riad, Amgad; Thirunavuk Arasoo, Valliammai Jayanthi; Elangovan, Soman

    2015-01-01

    Even after completion of conventional treatment, breast cancer survivors continue to exhibit a variety of psychological and physical symptoms, affecting their quality of life. The study aimed to investigate the relationship between socio-demography, medical characteristics and health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) of a sample of breast cancer survivors in Malaysia. This pilot cross-sectional survey was conducted among breast cancer survivors (n=40) who were members of Breast Cancer Support Group Centre Johor Bahru. A validated self-administered questionnaire was used to identify the relationships between socio-demography, medical characteristics and HR-QOL of the participants. Living with family and completion of treatment were significant predictive factors of self-rated QOL, while living with family and ever giving birth significantly predicted satisfaction with health and physical health. Psychological health had moderate correlations with number of children and early cancer stage. Survivors' higher personal income (>MYR4,500) was the only significant predictor of social relationship, while age, income more than MYR4,500 and giving birth significantly predicted environment domain score. The findings suggested the survivors coped better in all four HR-QOL domains if they were married, lived with family, had children and were employed.

  17. Growth and demography of the solitary scleractinian coral Leptopsammia pruvoti along a sea surface temperature gradient in the Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Caroselli

    Full Text Available The demographic traits of the solitary azooxanthellate scleractinian Leptopsammia pruvoti were determined in six populations on a sea surface temperature (SST gradient along the western Italian coasts. This is the first investigation of the growth and demography characteristics of an azooxanthellate scleractinian along a natural SST gradient. Growth rate was homogeneous across all populations, which spanned 7 degrees of latitude. Population age structures differed between populations, but none of the considered demographic parameters correlated with SST, indicating possible effects of local environmental conditions. Compared to another Mediterranean solitary scleractinian, Balanophyllia europaea, zooxanthellate and whose growth, demography and calcification have been studied in the same sites, L. pruvoti seems more tolerant to temperature increase. The higher tolerance of L. pruvoti, relative to B. europaea, may rely on the absence of symbionts, and thus the lack of an inhibition of host physiological processes by the heat-stressed zooxanthellae. However, the comparison between the two species must be taken cautiously, due to the likely temperature differences between the two sampling depths. Increasing research effort on determining the effects of temperature on the poorly studied azooxanthellate scleractinians may shed light on the possible species assemblage shifts that are likely to occur during the current century as a consequence of global climatic change.

  18. Fear affects parental care, which predicts juvenile survival and exacerbates the total cost of fear on demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudeck, Blair P; Clinchy, Michael; Allen, Marek C; Zanette, Liana Y

    2018-01-01

    Fear itself (perceived predation risk) can affect wildlife demography, but the cumulative impact of fear on population dynamics is not well understood. Parental care is arguably what most distinguishes birds and mammals from other taxa, yet only one experiment on wildlife has tested fear effects on parental food provisioning and the repercussions this has for the survival of dependent offspring, and only during early-stage care. We tested the effect of fear on late-stage parental care of mobile dependent offspring, by locating radio-tagged Song Sparrow fledglings and broadcasting predator or non-predator playbacks in their vicinity, measuring their parent's behavior and their own, and tracking the offspring's survival to independence. Fear significantly reduced late-stage parental care, and parental fearfulness (as indexed by their reduction in provisioning when hearing predators) significantly predicted their offspring's condition and survival. Combining results from this experiment with that on early-stage care, we project that fear itself is powerful enough to reduce late-stage survival by 24%, and cumulatively reduce the number of young reaching independence by more than half, 53%. Experiments in invertebrate and aquatic systems demonstrate that fear is commonly as important as direct killing in affecting prey demography, and we suggest focusing more on fear effects and on offspring survival will reveal the same for wildlife. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Unraveling the effects of selection and demography on immune gene variation in free-ranging plains zebra (Equus quagga) populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L; Getz, Wayne M

    2012-01-01

    Demography, migration and natural selection are predominant processes affecting the distribution of genetic variation among natural populations. Many studies use neutral genetic markers to make inferences about population history. However, the investigation of functional coding loci, which directly reflect fitness, is critical to our understanding of species' ecology and evolution. Immune genes, such as those of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC), play an important role in pathogen recognition and provide a potent model system for studying selection. We contrasted diversity patterns of neutral data with MHC loci, ELA-DRA and -DQA, in two southern African plains zebra (Equus quagga) populations: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Results from neutrality tests, along with observations of elevated diversity and low differentiation across populations, supported previous genus-level evidence for balancing selection at these loci. Despite being low, MHC divergence across populations was significant and may be attributed to drift effects typical of geographically separated populations experiencing little to no gene flow, or alternatively to shifting allele frequency distributions driven by spatially variable and fluctuating pathogen communities. At the DRA, zebra exhibited geographic differentiation concordant with microsatellites and reduced levels of diversity in Etosha due to highly skewed allele frequencies that could not be explained by demography, suggestive of spatially heterogeneous selection and local adaptation. This study highlights the complexity in which selection affects immune gene diversity and warrants the need for further research on the ecological mechanisms shaping patterns of adaptive variation among natural populations.

  20. Unraveling the effects of selection and demography on immune gene variation in free-ranging plains zebra (Equus quagga populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline L Kamath

    Full Text Available Demography, migration and natural selection are predominant processes affecting the distribution of genetic variation among natural populations. Many studies use neutral genetic markers to make inferences about population history. However, the investigation of functional coding loci, which directly reflect fitness, is critical to our understanding of species' ecology and evolution. Immune genes, such as those of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC, play an important role in pathogen recognition and provide a potent model system for studying selection. We contrasted diversity patterns of neutral data with MHC loci, ELA-DRA and -DQA, in two southern African plains zebra (Equus quagga populations: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Results from neutrality tests, along with observations of elevated diversity and low differentiation across populations, supported previous genus-level evidence for balancing selection at these loci. Despite being low, MHC divergence across populations was significant and may be attributed to drift effects typical of geographically separated populations experiencing little to no gene flow, or alternatively to shifting allele frequency distributions driven by spatially variable and fluctuating pathogen communities. At the DRA, zebra exhibited geographic differentiation concordant with microsatellites and reduced levels of diversity in Etosha due to highly skewed allele frequencies that could not be explained by demography, suggestive of spatially heterogeneous selection and local adaptation. This study highlights the complexity in which selection affects immune gene diversity and warrants the need for further research on the ecological mechanisms shaping patterns of adaptive variation among natural populations.

  1. Spatial structure and nest demography reveal the influence of competition, parasitism and habitat quality on slavemaking ants and their hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharf, Inon; Fischer-Blass, Birgit; Foitzik, Susanne

    2011-03-28

    Natural communities are structured by intra-guild competition, predation or parasitism and the abiotic environment. We studied the relative importance of these factors in two host-social parasite ecosystems in three ant communities in Europe (Bavaria) and North America (New York, West Virginia). We tested how these factors affect colony demography, life-history and the spatial pattern of colonies, using a large sample size of more than 1000 colonies. The strength of competition was measured by the distance to the nearest competitor. Distance to the closest social parasite colony was used as a measure of parasitism risk. Nest sites (i.e., sticks or acorns) are limited in these forest ecosystems and we therefore included nest site quality as an abiotic factor in the analysis. In contrast to previous studies based on local densities, we focus here on the positioning and spatial patterns and we use models to compare our predictions to random expectations. Colony demography was universally affected by the size of the nest site with larger and more productive colonies residing in larger nest sites of higher quality. Distance to the nearest competitor negatively influenced host demography and brood production in the Bavarian community, pointing to an important role of competition, while social parasitism was less influential in this community. The New York community was characterized by the highest habitat variability, and productive colonies were clustered in sites of higher quality. Colonies were clumped on finer spatial scales, when we considered only the nearest neighbors, but more regularly distributed on coarser scales. The analysis of spatial positioning within plots often produced different results compared to those based on colony densities. For example, while host and slavemaker densities are often positively correlated, slavemakers do not nest closer to potential host colonies than expected by random. The three communities are differently affected by biotic and

  2. Spatial structure and nest demography reveal the influence of competition, parasitism and habitat quality on slavemaking ants and their hosts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer-Blass Birgit

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Natural communities are structured by intra-guild competition, predation or parasitism and the abiotic environment. We studied the relative importance of these factors in two host-social parasite ecosystems in three ant communities in Europe (Bavaria and North America (New York, West Virginia. We tested how these factors affect colony demography, life-history and the spatial pattern of colonies, using a large sample size of more than 1000 colonies. The strength of competition was measured by the distance to the nearest competitor. Distance to the closest social parasite colony was used as a measure of parasitism risk. Nest sites (i.e., sticks or acorns are limited in these forest ecosystems and we therefore included nest site quality as an abiotic factor in the analysis. In contrast to previous studies based on local densities, we focus here on the positioning and spatial patterns and we use models to compare our predictions to random expectations. Results Colony demography was universally affected by the size of the nest site with larger and more productive colonies residing in larger nest sites of higher quality. Distance to the nearest competitor negatively influenced host demography and brood production in the Bavarian community, pointing to an important role of competition, while social parasitism was less influential in this community. The New York community was characterized by the highest habitat variability, and productive colonies were clustered in sites of higher quality. Colonies were clumped on finer spatial scales, when we considered only the nearest neighbors, but more regularly distributed on coarser scales. The analysis of spatial positioning within plots often produced different results compared to those based on colony densities. For example, while host and slavemaker densities are often positively correlated, slavemakers do not nest closer to potential host colonies than expected by random. Conclusions The

  3. A simple, sufficient, and consistent method to score the status of threats and demography of imperiled species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob W. Malcom

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Managers of large, complex wildlife conservation programs need information on the conservation status of each of many species to help strategically allocate limited resources. Oversimplifying status data, however, runs the risk of missing information essential to strategic allocation. Conservation status consists of two components, the status of threats a species faces and the species’ demographic status. Neither component alone is sufficient to characterize conservation status. Here we present a simple key for scoring threat and demographic changes for species using detailed information provided in free-form textual descriptions of conservation status. This key is easy to use (simple, captures the two components of conservation status without the cost of more detailed measures (sufficient, and can be applied by different personnel to any taxon (consistent. To evaluate the key’s utility, we performed two analyses. First, we scored the threat and demographic status of 37 species recently recommended for reclassification under the Endangered Species Act (ESA and 15 control species, then compared our scores to two metrics used for decision-making and reports to Congress. Second, we scored the threat and demographic status of all non-plant ESA-listed species from Florida (54 spp., and evaluated scoring repeatability for a subset of those. While the metrics reported by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS are often consistent with our scores in the first analysis, the results highlight two problems with the oversimplified metrics. First, we show that both metrics can mask underlying demographic declines or threat increases; for example, ∼40% of species not recommended for reclassification had changes in threats or demography. Second, we show that neither metric is consistent with either threats or demography alone, but conflates the two. The second analysis illustrates how the scoring key can be applied to a substantial set of species to

  4. Research, Teaching Training in Demography: A Directory of Institutions in the ESCAP Region. Asian Population Studies Series No. 8, Supplement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok (Thailand).

    This directory contains information on 39 institutions and 108 projects of research teaching and training in demography in Asia and the Pacific. Eight countries are represented: Australia, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Japan, New Zealand, and Pakistan. The following information is given for each institution: name, address, person in charge,…

  5. Variation in ploidy level and phenology can result in large and unexpected differences in demography and climatic sensitivity between closely related ferns.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de G.A.; Zuidema, P.A.; Groot, H.; During, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    • Premise of the study: Current environmental changes may affect the dynamics and viability of plant populations. This environmental sensitivity may differ between species of different ploidy level because polyploidization can influence life history traits. We compared the demography and climatic

  6. Demographic studies of Joshua trees in Mojave Desert National Parks: demography with emphasis on germination and recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esque, T.C.; Reynolds, B.; DeFalco, L.A.; Waitman, B.A.; Hughson, Debra

    2010-01-01

    The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.

  7. Uncloaking a cryptic, threatened rail with molecular markers: origins, connectivity and demography of a recently-discovered population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Philippe; Takekawa, John Y.; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2010-01-01

    The threatened California Black Rail lives under dense marsh vegetation, is rarely observed, flies weakly and has a highly disjunct distribution. The largest population of rails is found in 8–10 large wetlands in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay), but a population was recently discovered in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (Foothills), within a wetland network comprised of over 200 small marshes. Using microsatellite and mitochondrial analyses, our objectives were to determine the origins, connectivity and demography of this recently-discovered population. Analyses of individuals from the Foothills (n = 31), SF Bay (n = 31), the Imperial Valley (n = 6) and the East Coast (n = 3), combined with rigorous power evaluations, provided valuable insights into past history and current dynamics of the species in Northern California that challenge conventional wisdom about the species. The Foothills and SF Bay populations have diverged strongly from the Imperial Valley population, even more strongly than from individuals of the East Coast subspecies. The data also suggest a historical presence of the species in the Foothills. The SF Bay and Foothills populations had similar estimated effective population size over the areas sampled and appeared linked by a strongly asymmetrical migration pattern, with a greater probability of movement from the Foothills to SF Bay than vice versa. Random mating was inferred in the Foothills, but local substructure among marshes and inbreeding were detected in SF Bay, suggesting different dispersal patterns within each location. The unexpected dimensions of Black Rail demography and population structure suggested by these analyses and their potential importance for management are discussed.

  8. Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

    2013-01-01

    Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

  9. Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

  10. Demography and behavior of polar bears summering on land in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Lily

    2014-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea population (SB) are spending increased time on the coastal North Slope of Alaska between July and October (Gleason and Rode 2010). The duration spent on land by polar bears, satellite collared on the sea-ice in the spring, during the summer and fall has also increased (USGS, unpublished data; Figure 1). This change in polar bear ecology has relevance for human-bear interactions, subsistence harvest, prevalence of defense kills, and disturbance associated with existing land-based development [e.g., National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (NPRA), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)], Native Alaskan communities, recreation (ANWR) and tourism (e.g., bear viewing in Kaktovik, AK). These activities have the potential to impact, in new ways, the status of the entire SB population. Concomitantly, the change in polar bear ecology will impact these human activities, and a base-line characterization of this phenomenon can better inform mitigation (e.g., industry permitting under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act). In this study we aim to characterize the demography, habitat-use, and aspects of foraging ecology and health of polar bears spending fall on land. The SB population is characterized by a divergent-sea ice ecology, where polar bears typically spend most of the year on the sea-ice, even as the pack ice retreats northward, away from the coast, to its minimal extent in September (Amstrup et al. 2008; Durner et al. 2009). From 2000 – 2005, using coastal aerial surveys, Schliebe et al. (2008) observed between 3.7 and 8% of polar bears from SB (~ 60 – 120 of 1526, Regher et al. 2006) on land during the autumn. Sighting probability was not estimated in these surveys, and therefore the numbers represent minimum numbers of bears on land. Our analysis of USGS data suggest an annual average of 15% (± 3%, SE) of polar bears satellite-tagged on the spring-time sea ice (total n = 18 of 124

  11. Demography of zooplankton (Anuraeopsis fissa, Brachionus rubens and Moina macrocopa) fed Chlorella vulgaris and Scenedesmus acutus cultured on different media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Ventura, Jesús; Nandini, S; Sarma, S S S; Castellanos-Páez, Maria Elena

    2012-09-01

    Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold's basal) medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan). Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0 x 10(6) cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5 x 10(6) cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23 +/- 1 degrees C in 100 mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates). For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (vulgaris cultured in Bold medium. Regardless of the culture medium, Chlorella resulted in significantly higher gross and net reproductive rates for B. rubens than S. acutus diets. The reproductive rates of M. macrocopa were significantly higher in all the tested diets except when fed with S. acutus in Bold medium. The population increase rate, derived from growth experiments of A. fissa and B. rubens, ranged from 0.1-0.25/d and were significantly higher on C vulgaris cultured in liquid fertilizer as compared to the other diets. The growth rates of M. macrocopa ranged from 0.1 to 0.38/d, and were highest with diets of C. vulgaris cultured in Bold medium and S. acutus cultured in fertilizer. Thus, regardless of the culture medium used, the growth rates of the evaluated zooplankton species were higher with Chlorella than with Scenedesmus. The peak population density was highest (2 800ind/mL) for A. fissa fed Chlorella that was cultured on

  12. The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse

  13. Oceanic, Latitudinal, and Sex-Specific Variation in Demography of a Tropical Deepwater Snapper across the Indo-Pacific Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley J. Williams

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Deepwater tropical fisheries provide an important source of income and protein to Pacific and Indian Ocean coastal communities who are highly dependent on fish for food security. The development of quantitative assessments and management strategies for these deepwater fisheries has been hindered by insufficient biological and fisheries data. We examine the age-specific demography of the pygmy ruby snapper Etelis carbunculus, an important target species in tropical deepwater fisheries, across 90° of longitude and 20° of latitude in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Our results show that growth of E. carbunculus varies significantly between oceans and sexes and across latitudes in both oceans. Estimates of natural and fishing mortality were similar between oceans, but higher for females than males in both oceans. Evidence of greater fishing pressure on females than males is likely due to the larger size-at-age of females compared to males, assuming that selectivity of the fishing gear is related directly to fish size. Sex ratios were significantly female biased in both oceans despite this species being gonochoristic, and maturity schedules were similar between sexes in the Pacific Ocean. This species exhibits a protracted spawning season from mid-spring to autumn (i.e., October to May in the Pacific Ocean. These results represent the first estimates of age-specific demographic parameters for E. carbunculus, and provide the foundation for the development of the first species-specific assessment models and harvest strategies for the species. Future stock assessment models for E. carbunculus should consider sex-specific demographic parameters and spatial variation in demography. Our results reveal substantial differences in biology between E. carbunculus and the giant ruby snapper E. sp., a cryptic congeneric species, and thus contribute to greater clarity in managing fisheries that are dependent on these two species. Furthermore, the improved

  14. [Demography of Caulerpa paspaloides var. wudermanni (Bryopsidales: Caulerpaceae) in the coastal zone of Campeche, México].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Sergio Armando; Gallegos, Margarita E; Mandujano, María C

    2014-06-01

    Demography of Caulerpa paspaloides var. wudermanni (Bryopsidales: Caulerpaceae) in the coastal zone of Campeche, México. The subaquatic vegetation of Los Petenes, Campeche, Mexico, stands out due to its considerable floristic diversity, composed of a great variety of sea grasses and several species of the genus Caulerpa sp. This is a genus of ecological relevance, with the invasive species in the Mediterranean, with negative impact on several native sub-aquatic plants; nevertheless, little is known about the demography and population dynamics of Caulerpa species and their contribution to food webs. Thus the main objective of this study was to describe the demographics of Caulerpa paspaloides var. wudermanni, using the number of stolons, complete and incomplete fronds, the diameter of the stolons and the biomass. The information was used to determine the growth rate (lambda) of this species. The study was conducted in the Biosphere Reserve of Los Petenes, which is located in the Northwest of the state of Campeche. The submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Petenes Biosphere consists of monospecific and mixed populations of seagrass species (Thalassia testudinum, Halodule wrightii and Syringodium filiforme). Although chlorophytes, brown algae and red algae, are fundamental elements in the specific composition of the SAV in Petenes, several species of Caulerpa are prominent because of their coverage and abundance. In May and June of 2010, significant differences in the quantity of stolons, their diameter, incomplete and complete fronds, and the size of the stolons and rhizomes, were observed. In 2010, the finite population growth rate (lambda) was 2.38 +/- 0.1571 for individuals and 1.20 +/- 0.1356 for the population, and in 2011 the values of lambda were 1.80 +/- 0.3608 and 1.35 +/- 0.1571, respectively. From these results it can be concluded that the population is growing; however, growth is controlled by biotic and abiotic factors. Despite there was no apparent

  15. Associations between toddlers' and parents' BMI, in relation to family socio-demography: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindkvist, Marie; Ivarsson, Anneli; Silfverdal, Sven Arne; Eurenius, Eva

    2015-12-17

    It is well established that the pregnancy and the first years of life are important for future childhood health and body weight. Even though current evidence suggests that both parents are important for childhood health, the influence that parents' BMI and socio-demography has on toddlers' BMI has so far received little attention. This study aimed to increase our knowledge on the association between toddlers' and parents' BMI, in relation to family socio-demography. Further, the aim was to investigate the interaction between the mothers' and fathers' BMI in relation to their child's BMI. A total of 697 children with a median age of 18 months (range 16-24 months) participated in the study along with their mothers (n = 697) and fathers (n = 674). As regards representability, our parental sample had a lower proportion of immigrants and the parents were more gainfully employed compared to parents in the rest of Sweden (when the child was 18 months old). The parents completed a questionnaire on parental and child health. Data on parental weight, height, and socio-demographics were recorded along with the child's weight and height measured at an ordinary child health care visit. We used the thresholds for children's BMI that were recommended for surveillance by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in 2012 based on the WHO reference population. Among the toddlers, 33 % had a BMI above the WHO 85(th) percentile and 14 % had a BMI above the WHO 95(th) percentile. The probability of a toddler having a BMI above the WHO 95(th) percentile was significantly increased if either the mother or father was overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2)). Furthermore, we found a positive synergistic effect between the mother and father being overweight and their child having a BMI above the WHO 85(th) percentile. No associations were found between the toddlers' BMI and the family's socio-demographics, but there were associations between the parents' BMI and the family

  16. Historical demography of common carp estimated from individuals collected from various parts of the world using the pairwise sequentially markovian coalescent approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zihao; Huang, Wei; Liu, Shikai; Xu, Peng; Dunham, Rex; Liu, Zhanjiang

    2018-04-01

    The inference of historical demography of a species is helpful for understanding species' differentiation and its population dynamics. However, such inference has been previously difficult due to the lack of proper analytical methods and availability of genetic data. A recently developed method called Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) offers the capability for estimation of the trajectories of historical populations over considerable time periods using genomic sequences. In this study, we applied this approach to infer the historical demography of the common carp using samples collected from Europe, Asia and the Americas. Comparison between Asian and European common carp populations showed that the last glacial period starting 100 ka BP likely caused a significant decline in population size of the wild common carp in Europe, while it did not have much of an impact on its counterparts in Asia. This was probably caused by differences in glacial activities in East Asia and Europe, and suggesting a separation of the European and Asian clades before the last glacial maximum. The North American clade which is an invasive population shared a similar demographic history as those from Europe, consistent with the idea that the North American common carp probably had European ancestral origins. Our analysis represents the first reconstruction of the historical population demography of the common carp, which is important to elucidate the separation of European and Asian common carp clades during the Quaternary glaciation, as well as the dispersal of common carp across the world.

  17. The Phylogeography and Population Demography of the Yunnan Caecilian (Ichthyophis bannanicus: Massive Rivers as Barriers to Gene Flow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    Full Text Available Ichthyophis bannanicus is the only caecilian species in China. In this study, the phylogeography and population demography of I. bannanicus were explored, based on the mitochondrial DNA genes (cyt b and ND2 and 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Altogether 158 individuals were collected from five populations in Yunnan province, Guangxi province, Guangdong province, and Northern Vietnam. Phylogeographical and population structure analysis identified either two groups (Xishuangbanna, Northern Vietnam-Yulin-Yangchun-Deqing or three groups (Xishuangbanna, Northern Vietnam-Yulin-Yangchun, and Deqing, indicating that the Red River and Pearl River systems may have acted as gene-flow barriers for I. bannanicus. Historical population expansion that happened 15-17 Ka ago was detected for mtDNA data and was possibly triggered by warmer weather after the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the Bayesian simulations of population history based on microsatellite data pinpointed population decline in all populations since 19,123 to 1,029 years ago, demonstrating a significant influence of anthropogenic habitat alteration on I. bannanicus.

  18. Bayesian salamanders: analysing the demography of an underground population of the European plethodontid Speleomantes strinatii with state-space modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvidio Sebastiano

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been suggested that Plethodontid salamanders are excellent candidates for indicating ecosystem health. However, detailed, long-term data sets of their populations are rare, limiting our understanding of the demographic processes underlying their population fluctuations. Here we present a demographic analysis based on a 1996 - 2008 data set on an underground population of Speleomantes strinatii (Aellen in NW Italy. We utilised a Bayesian state-space approach allowing us to parameterise a stage-structured Lefkovitch model. We used all the available population data from annual temporary removal experiments to provide us with the baseline data on the numbers of juveniles, subadults and adult males and females present at any given time. Results Sampling the posterior chains of the converged state-space model gives us the likelihood distributions of the state-specific demographic rates and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Analysing the resulting parameterised Lefkovitch matrices shows that the population growth is very close to 1, and that at population equilibrium we expect half of the individuals present to be adults of reproductive age which is what we also observe in the data. Elasticity analysis shows that adult survival is the key determinant for population growth. Conclusion This analysis demonstrates how an understanding of population demography can be gained from structured population data even in a case where following marked individuals over their whole lifespan is not practical.

  19. Mapping the Indonesian territory, based on pollution, social demography and geographical data, using self organizing feature map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernawati, Kuswari; Insani, Nur; Bambang S. H., M.; Nur Hadi, W.; Sahid

    2017-08-01

    This research aims to mapping the 33 (thirty-three) provinces in Indonesia, based on the data on air, water and soil pollution, as well as social demography and geography data, into a clustered model. The method used in this study was unsupervised method that combines the basic concept of Kohonen or Self-Organizing Feature Maps (SOFM). The method is done by providing the design parameters for the model based on data related directly/ indirectly to pollution, which are the demographic and social data, pollution levels of air, water and soil, as well as the geographical situation of each province. The parameters used consists of 19 features/characteristics, including the human development index, the number of vehicles, the availability of the plant's water absorption and flood prevention, as well as geographic and demographic situation. The data used were secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia. The data are mapped into SOFM from a high-dimensional vector space into two-dimensional vector space according to the closeness of location in term of Euclidean distance. The resulting outputs are represented in clustered grouping. Thirty-three provinces are grouped into five clusters, where each cluster has different features/characteristics and level of pollution. The result can used to help the efforts on prevention and resolution of pollution problems on each cluster in an effective and efficient way.

  20. Impacts of Frequent Burning on Live Tree Carbon Biomass and Demography in Post-Harvest Regrowth Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke Collins

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The management of forest ecosystems to increase carbon storage is a global concern. Fire frequency has the potential to shift considerably in the future. These shifts may alter demographic processes and growth of tree species, and consequently carbon storage in forests. Examination of the sensitivity of forest carbon to the potential upper and lower extremes of fire frequency will provide crucial insight into the magnitude of possible change in carbon stocks associated with shifts in fire frequency. This study examines how tree biomass and demography of a eucalypt forest regenerating after harvest is affected by two experimentally manipulated extremes in fire frequency (i.e., ~3 year fire intervals vs. unburnt sustained over a 23 year period. The rate of post-harvest biomass recovery of overstorey tree species, which constituted ~90% of total living tree biomass, was lower within frequently burnt plots than unburnt plots, resulting in approximately 20% lower biomass in frequently burnt plots by the end of the study. Significant differences in carbon biomass between the two extremes in frequency were only evident after >15–20 years of sustained treatment. Reduced growth rates and survivorship of smaller trees on the frequently burnt plots compared to unburnt plots appeared to be driving these patterns. The biomass of understorey trees, which constituted ~10% of total living tree biomass, was not affected by frequent burning. These findings suggest that future shifts toward more frequent fire will potentially result in considerable reductions in carbon sequestration across temperate forest ecosystems in Australia.

  1. Population status, demography and habitat preferences of the threatened lipstick palm Cyrtostachys renda Blume in Kerumutan Reserve, Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widyatmoko, Didik; Burgman, Mark A.; Guhardja, Edi; Mogea, Johanis P.; Walujo, Eko B.; Setiadi, Dede

    2005-09-01

    Population status and demography of a population of the threatened lipstick palm Cyrtostachys renda in a peat swamp ecosystem of Kerumutan Reserve, Sumatra (one of the largest remaining populations) was documented at 16 different sites, covering a wide range of forest and habitat types, vegetation associations, and population sizes. Population sizes were dominated by suckers comprising 89% of the total population. Individuals with stem heights between 0 and 4 m (47.5%), stem diameters between 4 and 10 cm (82.0%), and leaf scar numbers between 0 and 60 (69.2%) dominated. Ages of individuals were estimated and used to fit a curvilinear relationship between age and stem height. Wild plants reach reproductive maturity within 25-30 years, or when they have stem heights in excess of 2.0 m, or when they have 15-25 leaf scars. They can survive more than 80 years. Cultivated plants appear to reproduce earlier and produce more seeds than wild plants. Individual growth was plant size-dependent with the adult stage being the most productive. Higher mortality was experienced by suckers, especially in continuously waterlogged conditions and locations with dense canopies. Sucker growth was faster than seedling growth, an adaptation that may allow the species to cope with periodically waterlogged conditions. Population abundances varied with habitat types; well-drained areas were the most suitable habitat. To conserve the most important remaining populations of the lipstick palm, it is crucial to protect well-drained sites in Kerumutan Reserve.

  2. Comorbid post-traumatic stress disorder in alcohol use disorder: relationships to demography, drinking and neuroimmune profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Sudan Prasad; Bramness, Jørgen G; Lien, Lars

    2017-08-29

    This study examined how alcohol use disorder (AUD) patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) differed from those without PTSD in terms of demography, drinking patterns and C-reactive protein, inflammatory cytokines, tryptophan metabolism parameters, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). A consecutive sample (N = 187) of treatment-receiving AUD individuals were recruited from Nepalese facilities. They underwent fully structured psychiatric interviews. Serum levels of inflammatory cytokines [interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1 Receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and interferon-gamma (IFN-γ)] were determined by a multiplex assay, kynurenine and tryptophan levels by high-performance liquid chromatography, and BDNF by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The prevalence of exposure to severe trauma and PTSD was 74% and 17%, respectively. PTSD comorbidity was not associated with age, gender, or socioeconomic status, but with co-occurring major depression, history of attempted suicide, earlier peak of drinking problems, higher drinking quantity and withdrawal symptoms, experiencing alcoholic blackouts, and drinking problems among parents. None of the assessed neuroimmune parameters was related to comorbid PTSD. The findings support routine trauma screening in AUD treatment samples and screening for risky drinking in trauma populations to help guide interventions. The expected aberrations in neuroimmune functioning may not be found when examined in a sample with multiple psychiatric morbidities.

  3. Long-term effects of tetanus toxoid inoculation on the demography and life expectancy of the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Matthew J; Hernández Pacheco, Raisa; Rawlins, Richard G; Ruiz-Lambrides, Angelina; Delgado, Diana L; Sabat, Alberto M

    2015-02-01

    Tetanus was a major cause of mortality in the free-ranging population of rhesus monkeys on Cayo Santiago prior to 1985 when the entire colony was given its first dose of tetanus toxoid. The immediate reduction in mortality that followed tetanus toxoid inoculation (TTI) has been documented, but the long-term demographic effects of eliminating tetanus infections have not. This study uses the Cayo Santiago demographic database to construct comparative life tables 12 years before, and 12 years after, TTI. Life tables and matrix projection models are used to test for differences in: (i) survival among all individuals as well as among social groups, (ii) long-term fitness of the population, (iii) age distribution, (iv) reproductive value, and (v) life expectancy. A retrospective life table response experiment (LTRE) was performed to determine which life cycle transition contributed most to observed changes in long-term fitness of the population post-TTI. Elimination of clinical tetanus infections through mass inoculation improved the health and well-being of the monkeys. It also profoundly affected the population by increasing survivorship and long-term fitness, decreasing the differences in survival rates among social groups, shifting the population's age distribution towards older individuals, and increasing reproductive value and life expectancy. These findings are significant because they demonstrate the long-term effects of eradicating a major cause of mortality at a single point in time on survival, reproduction, and overall demography of a naturalistic population of primates. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. The demography of Atelopus decline: Harlequin frog survival and abundance in central Panama prior to and during a disease outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca McCaffery

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Harlequin frogs (Bufonidae: Atelopus are a species-rich genus of Neotropical toads that have experienced disproportionately severe population declines and extinctions caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. The genus Atelopus is of high conservation concern, but relatively little is known about the population dynamics and life history of the majority of species. We examined the demography of one population of Atelopus zeteki and two populations of A. varius in central Panama using three to six years of mark-recapture data collected prior to and during an outbreak of Bd. We estimated male survival probabilities prior to the arrival of Bd and sex-specific population sizes for these three populations using state-space Bayesian population models. Prior to the arrival of Bd, monthly apparent survival probabilities were higher for A. varius males than for A. zeteki males, and recaptures among years were low in both species. Abundance of both species varied over time and declined rapidly after the arrival of Bd. Male densities were generally greater than female densities, though female densities were higher or equivalent to males after the arrival of Bd. Estimates of survival and abundance over time may be explained by differences in the use of stream habitat by the two sexes and three populations, both during and between breeding seasons. These estimates provide key baseline population information that can be used to inform reintroductions from captive assurance colonies and studies of extant Atelopus populations as part of conservation and management programs.

  5. Radiation oncology training in France: demography, analysis of motivations of the young specialists, evaluation of the training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantor, G.; Kantor, G.; Gerard, G.P.; Kantor, G.; Bey, P.; Huguet, F.; Toledano, A.; Lafond, C.; Quero, L.; Servagi, S.

    2005-01-01

    During the 5 past national courses organised by the French society of radiation oncology (SFRO), three different types of survey were performed to analyse demography, motivations and quality of training of the young specialists. During the 5 past years, 50 radiation oncologists were training for the whole country (about 15 per year were graduated). A recent increase the number of young specialists is observed with a total number of 50 in 2000 to 75 in 2005. Nevertheless, the number of young specialists is dramatically insufficient and exposes for the future to an important demographic crisis. Analysis of motivations of choice for radiation oncology confirms the influence of a practical stage of oncology during the second cycle of the medical studies for 60% of the young specialists. Analysis of practical and theoretical training was performed according to the point of view and living experiences of the students. On the other hand, informations from teachers were less complete. Some needs are emphasised as: 1) the quality of the follow during the training (importance of the recent implementation of a logbook); 2) importance of theoretical and practical training at the radiotherapy department: 3) help and incentive for research and scientific publication. (author)

  6. Demography of zooplankton (Anuraeopsis fissa, Brachionus rubens and Moina macrocopa fed Chlorella vulgaris and Scenedesmus acutus cultured on different media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Morales-Ventura

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold’s basal medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan. Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0x10(6cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5x10(6cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23±1ºC in 100mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates. For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (<24h old into each test jar containing the specific algal type and concentration. For the rotifer experiments, we set 5mL tubes with one neonate each and 10 replicates for each algal species and culture medium. We found that the average rotifer life span was not influenced by the diet, but for M. macrocopa fed S. acutus cultured in Bold’s medium, the average lifespan was significantly lower than with the other diets. The gross and net reproductive rates of A. fissa (ranging from 18-36 offspring per female were significantly higher for C. vulgaris cultured in Bold medium. Regardless of the culture medium, Chlorella resulted in significantly higher gross and net reproductive rates for B. rubens than S. acutus diets. The reproductive rates of M. macrocopa were significantly higher in all the tested diets except when fed with S. acutus in Bold medium. The population increase rate, derived from growth experiments of A. fissa and B. rubens

  7. Demography of zooplankton (Anuraeopsis fissa, Brachionus rubens and Moina macrocopa fed Chlorella vulgaris and Scenedesmus acutus cultured on different media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Morales-Ventura

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold’s basal medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan. Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0x10(6cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5x10(6cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23±1ºC in 100mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates. For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (Generalmente el crecimiento del zooplancton está a menudo limitado por la calidad de su dieta de algas. La demografía del zooplancton durante la alimentación con algas no ha sido estudiada, a pesar de que el cultivo de algas con fertilizantes es una práctica económica común en acuacultura. Se analizó la demografía de Anuraeopsis fissa y Brachionus rubens (rotíferos y Moina macrocopa (cladóceros, alimentados con las algas verdes Scenedesmus acutus o Chlorella vulgaris cultivadas en medio Bold o fertilizante líquido comercial (Bayfolan, de Bayer. En los rotíferos no se observaron diferencias significativas en el promedio de vida, sin embargo, este parámetro en M. macrocopa con S. acutus cultivada en Medio Bold, fue significativamente menor que en otras dietas. Las tasas de reproducción bruta y neta de A. fissa fueron significativamente mayores con C. vulgaris cultivada en medio Bold, que con el fertilizante; estas tasas en B

  8. A Multiproxy Approach to Unraveling Climate and Human Demography in the Peruvian Altiplano from a 5000 year Lake Sediment Core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaught-Mijares, R. M.; Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Werne, J. P.; Arkush, E.

    2017-12-01

    Drought and flood events are thought to have shaped the ways in which Andean societies have adapted to life in the Titicaca Basin region, particularly with regard to land use practices and settlement patterns. This study examines a small lake in the region, Laguna Orurillo. Water isotopes suggest that the lake primarily loses water through evaporation, making it hydrologically sensitive. In 2015, a 3.4 m overlapping sediment record was collected and inspected for evidence of shallow water facies and erosional unconformities to reconstruct paleohydrology. Sediment core chronology was established using 7 AMS radiocarbon dates and 210Pb dating and indicates that the core spans 5000 years. Additional sediment core measurements include magnetic susceptibility, bulk density, organic/carbonate content, and XRD. Results show a pronounced change in sediment composition from brittle, angular salt deposits to massive calcareous silt and clay around 5000 years BP. Multiple transitions from clay to sand show potential lake level depressions at 1540, 2090, and 2230, yr BP that are supported by a drastic increase in carbonate composition from 2760-1600 yr BP. Additional shallow-water periods may be reflected in the presence of rip-up clasts from 4000 to 3000 yr BP. These early interpretations align well with existing hydrologic records from Lake Titicaca. In order to develop a more detailed climate and land use record, isotope analyses of authigenic carbonate minerals using δ13C and δ18O and leaf waxes using δD are being developed. Ultimately, this record will be linked with records from nearby Lagunas Arapa and Umayo. Additional proxies for human population such as fecal 5β-stanols and proximal anthropologic surveys will be synthesized to contribute to a regional understanding of Holocene climate variability and human demography in the Peruvian Altiplano.

  9. Demography, types, outcome and relationship of surgically treated intracranial suppuration complicating chronic suppurative otitis media and bacterial rhinosinusitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olufemi Emmanuel Idowu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Surgically treated intracranial suppurations (ICS are uncommon, life-threatening neurosurgical emergencies. They can result from complication of chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM and bacterial rhinosinusitis (BRS. The objective of this study was to know the frequency of BRS and CSOM and relate it to its rare complication of surgically treated ICS while also describing the demography, type and outcome of ICS that resulted from BRS and CSOM. Materials and Methods: All patients that presented to the Otorhinolaryngological department and Neurosurgical unit of the same institution with clinical and radiological features of CSOM, BRS, and ICS were prospectively studied over a 5-year period. Patients were followed up for a minimum of 3 months. Results: Two thousand, two hundred and seventy-nine patients presented during the 5-year study period. Of all these patients, 1511 had CSOM (66.3% and 768 (33.7% presented with features of BRS. Eleven (0.73% had ICS complicating their CSOM while 8 (1.04% cases of surgically treated ICS followed BRS. Bacterial rhinosinusitis was not more likely to lead to ICS (P = 0.4348. The Odds ratio (OR of a child ≤ 18 years of age with CSOM developing ICS was 5.24 (95% Confidence interval 1.13-24.34; P = 0.0345, while it was 7.60 (95% Confidence interval 1.52-37.97; P = 0.0134 for children with BRS. Conclusions: The most common type of ICS complicating CSOM and BRS was brain abscess and subdural empyema, respectively. Children are more prone to develop surgical ICS following CSOM and BRS. The proportion of males that had ICS was higher in both CSOM and BRS patients. Optimal outcome is achieved in patients that presented with GCS of 13 and above.

  10. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  11. The Effects of Habitat Type and Volcanic Eruptions on the Breeding Demography of Icelandic Whimbrels Numenius phaeopus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katrínardóttir, Borgný; Alves, José A; Sigurjónsdóttir, Hrefna; Hersteinsson, Páll; Gunnarsson, Tómas G

    2015-01-01

    Distinct preference of species for habitats is most often driven by long term differences in demographic rates between habitats. Estimating variation in those rates is key for developing successful conservation strategies. Stochastic events can interact with underlying variation in habitat quality in regulating demography but the opportunities to explore such interactions are rare. Whimbrels in Iceland show a strong preference for sparsely vegetated riverplains. Such habitats in Iceland face various threats, e.g., climate change, river regulation and spread of alien plant species. In this study we compared demographic parameters of breeding Whimbrels between riverplains and other habitats before, during and after volcanic eruption events to estimate the importance of the habitats for the species and the effect of ash deposit on breeding success. We found that an estimated minimum of 23% of the Icelandic population of Whimbrels and c. 10% of the world population of the species breed in riverplain habitats in Iceland. Whimbrels bred consistently at much higher densities in riverplain habitats than in other habitats and riverplains also had higher densities of pairs with fledglings although the proportion of successful breeders was similar between habitats. Predation by livestock may have had a considerable negative effect on breeding success on our study sites. Breeding was negatively affected by the volcanic activity, probably through the effects of ash on the invertebrate food supply, with breeding success being gradually worse closer to the eruption. Breeding success was equally affected by volcanism across habitats which differed in underlying habitat quality. This study gives an example of how populations can be regulated by factors which operate at different spatial scales, such as local variation in habitat quality and stochastic events which impact larger areas.

  12. The carbon debt from Amazon forest degradation: integrating airborne lidar, field measurements, and an ecosystem demography model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.

  13. Effects of an invasive grass on the demography of the Caribbean cactus Harrisia portoricensis: Implications for cacti conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas-Sandoval, Julissa; Meléndez-Ackerman, Elvia

    2012-05-01

    The impact of exotic species around the world is among the primary threats to the conservation and management of rare and endangered species. In this work we asked whether or not the presence of the African grass Megathyrsus maximus on Mona Island was associated with negative impacts on the demography of the endangered Caribbean cactus Harrisia portoricensis. To address this question we performed field observations where we compared demographic data collected at un-manipulated areas invaded by Megathyrsus with un-manipulated areas non-invaded by this exotic grass. Additionally, demographic data were also collected in areas in which we removed the exotic grass biomass using two alternative treatments: complete and partial grass removal. Results demonstrated that the presence of Megathyrsus has negative effects on demographic parameters of Harrisia at various stages throughout its life cycle. In general, the survival, growth, and reproduction of Harrisia plants were depressed under the presence of Megathyrsus. Growth and survival of seedlings and juveniles of Harrisia were more impacted by the presence of Megathyrsus than adult performance and seedling recruitment only occurred in areas with grass absence. Our combined results suggest that modifications of the micro-environment by the presence of Megathyrsus may add an additional level of vulnerability to the persistence of Harrisia, and as such this factor must be considered when designing conservation strategies for this endangered species. This study highlights the need for a greater emphasis on understanding the interactions between invasive grass species and native cacti, and the importance of such information in designing conservation strategies for cacti species elsewhere.

  14. A Personal Account of the History of Historical Demography in Europe at the End of the Glorious Thirty (1967-1975

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoinette Fauve-Chamoux

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Encouraged by her masters at the Annales School—historians Fernand Braudel and Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, demographer Louis Henry from Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques (INED, and sociologist Peter Laslett from Cambridge—the author, a baby-boomer, experienced major socio-economic and cultural changes in family behavior and reproduction models induced in Europe by the revolutionary events of 1968 in Paris. In this essay, she presents a personal account of the history of historical demography in Europe, between 1967 and 1975, in other words at the end of the post-WWII Glorious Thirty period (1945-1975. She then became involved in the development of a global network that had been formed in 1960 in Stockholm, linking professional national and international associations and academic units in Historical Demography and History of the Family. This network spread quickly overseas during the following decades. The period under study was marked by the beginning of important behavioral changes in socio-economic contexts and attitudes to family life, gender and human reproduction. These major shifts were called the Second Demographic Transition by two Dutch demographers, inspired by French scholars. The year 1976 is identified as a major turning point for Historical Demography as a discipline, mostly through the creation of the Social Science History Association and the Journal of Family History, which brought new theoretical approaches and methodologies. A generation of productive researchers appeared with the end of the 20th century and the new millennium. They took advantage of an increasingly digitalized world to widely disseminate a rich store of knowledge about past population behavior gathered since the 1960s by their predecessors.

  15. Urban park characteristics, genetic variation, and historical demography of white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus populations in New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Munshi-South

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Severe fragmentation is a typical fate of native remnant habitats in cities, and urban wildlife with limited dispersal ability are predicted to lose genetic variation in isolated urban patches. However, little information exists on the characteristics of urban green spaces required to conserve genetic variation. In this study, we examine whether isolation in New York City (NYC parks results in genetic bottlenecks in white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus, and test the hypotheses that park size and time since isolation are associated with genetic variability using nonlinear regression and information-theoretic model selection. White-footed mice have previously been documented to exhibit male-biased dispersal, which may create disparities in genetic variation between males and females in urban parks. We use genotypes of 18 neutral microsatellite data and four different statistical tests to assess this prediction. Given that sex-biased dispersal may create disparities between population genetic patterns inferred from bi- vs. uni-parentally inherited markers, we also sequenced a 324 bp segment of the mitochondrial D-loop for independent inferences of historical demography in urban P. leucopus. We report that isolation in urban parks does not necessarily result in genetic bottlenecks; only three out of 14 populations in NYC parks exhibited a signature of a recent bottleneck at 18 neutral microsatellite loci. Mouse populations in larger urban parks, or parks that have been isolated for shorter periods of time, also do not generally contain greater genetic variation than populations in smaller parks. These results suggest that even small networks of green spaces may be sufficient to maintain the evolutionary potential of native species with certain characteristics. We also found that isolation in urban parks results in weak to nonexistent sex-biased dispersal in a species known to exhibit male-biased dispersal in less fragmented environments. In

  16. The effect of migration on ages at vital events: a critique of family reconstitution in historical demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasakoff, A B; Adams, J W

    1995-09-01

    study focuses on questioning the analytical units in historical demography and suggests closer study of migrants and the disaggregation of ages at vital events in the study of such complex processes as modernization.

  17. Size and demography pattern of the domestic dog population in Bhutan: Implications for dog population management and disease control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinzin, Karma; Tenzin, Tenzin; Robertson, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the demography of domestic dogs is essential to plan the dog population management and rabies control program. In this study, we estimated the owned and stray dog population and the proportion of owned dogs that are free-roaming in Bhutan. For this, a cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in six districts (both urban and rural areas) and two border towns in southern Bhutan. The population estimation was done by extrapolation of the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person, whilst mark-resight survey was conducted to estimate the proportion of owned dogs that were free-roaming. A total of 1,301 (rural:585; urban:716) respondents (one per household) were interviewed of which 173 households (24.4%) in urban areas owned 237 dogs whilst 238 households (40.8%) in rural areas owned 353 dogs. The mean number of dogs per dog owning household was estimated to be 1.44 (urban:1.37 dogs; rural:1.48 dogs) and dogs per household was estimated to be 0.45 (urban:0.33; rural:0.60). The dog: human ratio was 1:16.30 (0.06 dogs per person) in urban areas and 1:8.43 (0.12 dogs per person) in rural areas. The total owned dog population based on the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person were estimated to be 65,312 and 71,245 in the country, respectively. The male: female ratio of the owned dog was 1.31:1 in urban areas and 2.05:1 in rural areas. Majority of the dogs were local non-descript breeds in both urban (60.8%) and rural (78%) areas, and the most common source was acquisition from friends or family (44.7%). The stray dog population in Bhutan was estimated to be 48,379 (urban:22,772; rural:25,607). Of the total estimated owned dog population in the two border towns, the proportion that were found free-roaming was estimated to be 31%. The different dog population estimation methods were compared and discussed in this paper. This study generated baseline data on the demographic patterns of the owned and stray dogs in Bhutan which

  18. Reproductive efficiency and herd demography of Nguni cattle in village-owned and group-owned enterprises under low-input communal production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Obert; Muchenje, Voster; Dzama, Kennedy

    2013-08-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the herd demography and reproductive efficiency of the Nguni cattle in village-owned and group-owned enterprises under low-input communal production systems. Data on husbandry practices, reason of cattle entry/exist, herd structure, bulling rates, breeding females, age at first calving and calving interval were obtained from 22 village-owned and 19 group-owned enterprises in a cross-sectional survey of an ecologically controlled low-input cattle production system. Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests of association were computed on enterprise ownership patterns, husbandry practices and herd demography. An AN(C)OVA was used to determine significant factors affecting herd structure, mortality, age at first calving and calving interval in the enterprises. Village-owned enterprises had higher (p 0.05). Significant differences were observed on the calving interval (p bulling rate was higher in village-owned enterprises, while the proportion of breeding females was higher in group-owned enterprises. Farmers with a college education had Nguni animals with the shortest calving interval. It was concluded that group-owned enterprises had significantly better calving intervals, mortality rates and overall herd structure than village-owned enterprises.

  19. Gender, Poverty and Demography

    OpenAIRE

    Buvinic, Mayra; Gupta, Monica Da; Casabonne, Ursula

    2009-01-01

    Much has been written on gender inequality and how it affects fertility and mortality outcomes as well as economic outcomes. What is not well understood is the role of gender inequality, embedded in the behavior of the family, the market, and society, in mediating the impact of demographic processes on economic outcomes. This article reviews the empirical evidence on the possible economic impacts of gender inequalities that work by exacerbating demographic stresses associated with different d...

  20. Demography as Destiny?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladner, Matthew; Lips, Dan

    2009-01-01

    A major debate among education reformers over how best to reduce the achievement gap broke out during the 2008 presidential campaign. Most advocates on both sides backed Barack Obama, but they urged him to pursue different policies. The Education Equality Project (EEP) supported a continuation of accountability and other school-focused reforms.…

  1. The demography of menopause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, K

    1996-03-01

    Menopause marks a time of dramatic hormonal and often social change for women. Both risk factors and health needs are likely to change as women pass through menopause. This paper examines the demographic characteristics of the world population of menopausal and post-menopausal women, and also examines the implication of menopause for mortality risks. The numbers of women involved are large. Using age 50 as a proxy for menopause, about 25 million women pass through menopause each year, and we estimate that in 1990 there were 467 million post-menopausal women in the world, with an average age of about 60 years. By 2030, the world population of menopausal and postmenopausal women is projected to increase to 1.2 billion, with 47 million new entrants each year. The mortality implications of menopause are also substantial. Ratios of female to male mortality risks from all causes and from all major cause groups except neoplasms decline to low levels around menopause or shortly thereafter, and then rise again to near unity. This pattern is taken as evidence that the female reproductive period is broadly protective of health, but that this protection disappears after menopause. The main protective effect is through reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality, partially offset by increased risks of cancer mortality, particularly of the breast and endometrium.

  2. Demography and disorders of the French Bulldog population under primary veterinary care in the UK in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Dan G; Baral, Lauren; Church, David B; Brodbelt, Dave C; Packer, Rowena M A

    2018-01-01

    Despite its Gallic name, the French Bulldog is a breed of both British and French origin that was first recognised by The Kennel Club in 1906. The French Bulldog has demonstrated recent rapid rises in Kennel Club registrations and is now (2017) the second most commonly registered pedigree breed in the UK. However, the breed has been reported to be predisposed to several disorders including ocular, respiratory, neurological and dermatological problems. The VetCompass™ Programme collates de-identified clinical data from primary-care veterinary practices in the UK for epidemiological research. Using VetCompass™ clinical data, this study aimed to characterise the demography and common disorders of the general population of French Bulldogs under veterinary care in the UK. French Bulldogs comprised 2228 (0.49%) of 445,557 study dogs under veterinary care during 2013. Annual proportional birth rates showed that the proportional ownership of French Bulldog puppies rose steeply from 0.02% of the annual birth cohort attending VetCompass™ practices in 2003 to 1.46% in 2013. The median age of the French Bulldogs overall was 1.3 years (IQR 0.6-2.5, range 0.0-13.0). The most common colours of French Bulldogs were brindle (solid or main) (32.36%) and fawn (solid or main) (29.9%). Of the 2228 French Bulldogs under veterinary care during 2013, 1612 (72.4%) had at least one disorder recorded. The most prevalent fine-level precision disorders recorded were otitis externa (14.0%, 95% CI: 12.6-15.5), diarrhoea (7.5%, 95% CI: 6.4-8.7), conjunctivitis (3.2%, 95% CI: 2.5-4.0), nails overlong (3.1%, 95% CI% 2.4-3.9) and skin fold dermatitis (3.0%, 95% CI% 2.3-3.8). The most prevalent disorder groups were cutaneous (17.9%, 95% CI: 16.3-19.6), enteropathy (16.7%, 95% CI: 15.2-18.3), aural (16.3%, 95% CI: 14.8-17.9), upper respiratory tract (12.7%, 95% CI: 11.3-14.1) and ophthalmological (10.5%, 95% CI: 9.3-11.9). Ownership of French Bulldogs in the UK is rising steeply. This means

  3. Study of occurrence, demography and pathomorphology of ankle and foot fractures and evaluation of the treatment outcome of calcaneal fractures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarfraz, A.H.; Masood, F.

    2014-01-01

    This study highlights which injury has greatest burden, how frequent are the injuries of foot and ankle areas, which is an extremely neglected specialty in orthopedics and also the importance of proper diagnosis, classification of fractures, appropriate pre-operative planning and timely conservative as well as surgical intervention of ankle and foot fractures that resulted in a satisfactory outcome Despite the fact, foot and ankle is the most important locomotor unit of our lower limb, there have been few studies addressing the problem and treatment outcome of such fractures. Objective: To determine the occurrence, demography and pathomorphology of ankle and foot fractures, also evaluation of treatment outcome of calcaneal fractures. Methodology: This was a longitudinal interventional study which dealt with acute traumatic ankle and foot fracture patients coming to Accident and Emergency Department of MHL, DOST unit 1, with inclusion and exclusion criteria clearly defined. Results: Total 100 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 35.71+-13.60 years. Minimum age of patients was 14 and maximum age of patients was 70 years respectively. Gender distribution of patients shows that 15 patients were female and the remaining 85 patients were male. Male patients were greater in number as compared to female patients ie. M: F, 6:1. Mechanism of the injury showed that there were 48 patients who suffered from RTA , 37 patients had trauma due to fall from height, 6 patients had industrial injuries, 5 patients had Fire Arm Injury, and 2 patients had injuries due to domestic activity, 1 had trauma due to sports activity and 1 had injury due to agricultural work. There were 41 patients with fractures of calcaneum and out of which 5 had bilateral fracture calcaneum. They were classified according to CT based Sanders classification. Out of these 22 patients were of Sanders type III, 12 patients were of Sander type II, 5 patients were of Sander type IV, 2

  4. ALM-FATES: Using dynamic vegetation and demography to capture changes in forest carbon cycling and competition at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2017-12-01

    The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.

  5. Technical note: A hydrological routing scheme for the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2+R tested in the Tapajós River basin in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. Pereira

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models are excellent tools for studying how climate change and land use affect surface hydrology. However, in order to assess the impacts of Earth processes on river flows, simulated changes in runoff need to be routed through the landscape. In this technical note, we describe the integration of the Ecosystem Demography (ED2 model with a hydrological routing scheme. The purpose of the study was to create a tool capable of incorporating to hydrological predictions the terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate, carbon dioxide, and land-use change, as simulated with terrestrial biosphere models. The resulting ED2+R model calculates the lateral routing of surface and subsurface runoff resulting from the terrestrial biosphere models' vertical water balance in order to determine spatiotemporal patterns of river flows within the simulated region. We evaluated the ED2+R model in the Tapajós, a 476 674 km2 river basin in the southeastern Amazon, Brazil. The results showed that the integration of ED2 with the lateral routing scheme results in an adequate representation (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.76, Kling–Gupta efficiency up to 0.86, Pearson's R up to 0.88, and volume ratio up to 1.06 of daily to decadal river flow dynamics in the Tapajós. These results are a consistent step forward with respect to the no river representation common among terrestrial biosphere models, such as the initial version of ED2.

  6. Prevalence of intestinal parasites among captive Asian Elephants Elephas maximus: effect of season, host demography, and management systems in Tamil Nadu, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Vanitha

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Maintenance of wild animals in captivity is fraught with numerous challenges, including the control of disease. This study evaluates the effect of season, host demography (age-sex, and differing management systems on the prevalence of intestinal parasites among elephants managed in three captive systems: temple, private, and forest department, in Tamil Nadu. In addition, the study also assessed the availability of veterinary care for elephants in these systems. The parasitic prevalence was evaluated by direct microscopic identification of helminth eggs in faecal samples (n = 115 collected from different age/sex classes of elephants. Of the 115 elephants examined, 37% showed positive results, being infected only with Strongyles sp. The prevalence rate varied significantly across seasons, with the highest rate during summer (49% followed by monsoon (41% and the lowest rate during winter (15%. While males had a significantly lower parasite prevalence compared to females (29% vs. 40%, age classes showed no significant difference. Despite the fact that the proportion of animals receiving veterinary care was higher under the forest department system (100% compared to the private system (26%, parasite prevalence was significantly higher under the former (48% than the latter (31% system. The difference in the proportion of animals with parasitic prevalence among the three systems could be due to differing management practices (i.e. in solitary versus groups and the details are discussed.

  7. Early Pleistocene lineages of Bagre bagre (Linnaeus, 1766 (Siluriformes: Ariidae, from the Atlantic coast of South America, with insights into the demography and biogeography of the species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wemerson C. da Silva

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Coastal and marine environments are characterized by a lack of evident physical barriers or geographic isolation, and it may be difficult to understand how divergence can arise and be sustained in marine environments. The identification of 'soft' barriers is a crucial step towards the understanding of gene flow in marine environments. The marine catfishes of the family Ariidae are a demersal group with restricted migratory behavior, no pelagic larval stages, and mechanisms of larval retention, representing a potentially useful model for the understanding of historical processes of allopatric speciation in the marine environment. In the present study, two lineages of the Coco sea catfish, Bagre bagre , were recognized from their complete segregation at both mitochondrial and morphological levels. One lineage is distributed between Venezuela and the northern coast of Brazil, including the semiarid northeast coast, while the second lineage is found on the eastern coast of Brazil, including the humid northeast coast. Based on distribution area, habitats preference, and genetic variability, inferences are made in relation to biogeography and demography of lineages in Atlantic coast of South America.

  8. Temporal variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae), on Isla Palma, Malaga Bay, pacific coast of Valle del Cauca

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garces Restrepo, Mario Fernando; Giraldo, Alan; Carr, John L

    2014-01-01

    Few long-term demographic studies have been conducted in freshwater turtles of South America despite the need for this type of inquiry to investigate natural variation and strengthen conservation efforts for these species. In this study, we examined variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle (Rhinoclemmys nasuta) based on a population from an island locality in the Colombian pacific region between 2005 and 2012. At this locality we captured turtles by hand in five streams with a total area of 0.4 ha. We calculated population size with the jolly-seber method and compared the population structure of four time periods (2005-06, 2007, 2011 and 2012). we calculated the probability of survival and capture probability for males, females and juveniles using the cormack jolly seber model and we estimated the rate of population growth with the Popan model. We found increases and decreases in population size, and a significant increase in the percentage of juveniles in 2011 and 2012. In all periods, females dominated the sex structure of the population. Temporal variation in population size may be due to natural changes in habitat or density dependent effects. However, it may correspond with normal fluctuations in population parameters, therefore continuous monitoring that can be correlated with environmental and physical factors of the habitat could elucidate the causes of the variation.

  9. Influences of past climatic changes on historical population structure and demography of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Ana R; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Bilgmann, Kerstin; Freitas, Luís; Robertson, Kelly M; Sequeira, Marina; Stockin, Karen A; Coelho, M M; Möller, Luciana M

    2012-10-01

    Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from 10 oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short-beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo-Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long-beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short-beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Demography and movement patterns of leopard sharks (Triakis semifasciata) aggregating near the head of a submarine canyon along the open coast of southern California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosal, D.C.; Cartamil, D.C.; Long, J.W.; Luhrmann, M.; Wegner, N.C.; Graham, J.B.

    2013-01-01

    The demography, spatial distribution, and movement patterns of leopard sharks (Triakis semifasciata) aggregating near the head of a submarine canyon in La Jolla, California, USA, were investigated to resolve the causal explanations for this and similar shark aggregations. All sharks sampled from the aggregation site (n=140) were sexually mature and 97.1 % were female. Aerial photographs taken during tethered balloon surveys revealed high densities of milling sharks of up to 5470 sharks ha-1. Eight sharks were each tagged with a continuous acoustic transmitter and manually tracked without interruption for up to 48 h. Sharks exhibited strong site-fidelity and were generally confined to a divergence (shadow) zone of low wave energy, which results from wave refraction over the steep bathymetric contours of the submarine canyon. Within this divergence zone, the movements of sharks were strongly localized over the seismically active Rose Canyon Fault. Tracked sharks spent most of their time in shallow water (≤2 m for 71.0 % and ≤10 m for 95.9 % of time), with some dispersing to deeper (max: 53.9 m) and cooler (min: 12.7 °C) water after sunset, subsequently returning by sunrise. These findings suggest multiple functions of this aggregation and that the mechanism controlling its formation, maintenance, and dissolution is complex and rooted in the sharks' variable response to numerous confounding environmental factors.

  11. Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

  12. Population structure and historical demography of Dipteronia dyeriana (Sapindaceae), an extremely narrow palaeoendemic plant from China: implications for conservation in a biodiversity hot spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C; Lu, R S; Zhu, S S; Tamaki, I; Qiu, Y X

    2017-08-01

    Inferring past demography is a central question in evolutionary and conservation biology. It is, however, sometimes challenging to disentangle their roles of contemporary versus historical processes in shaping the current patterns of genetic variation in endangered species. In this study, we used both chloroplast microsatellite (cpSSR) loci and nuclear microsatellite (nSSR) loci to assess the levels of genetic differentiation, genetic effective population size, contemporary/historical levels of gene flow and demographic history for five populations sampled across the range of Dipteronia dyeriana, an endangered palaeoendemism from Southwestern China. We found that D. dyeriana had a mixed pattern of moderate genetic diversity and high inbreeding. Bayesian clustering divided D. dyeriana populations into two nSSR genetic clusters. Coalescent-based approximate Bayesian computation analyses suggest the western and eastern groups of D. dyeriana likely persisted in a long-term refuge in Southern China since the beginning of the last glacial period, whereas increasingly colder and arid climates at the onset of the last glacial maximum might have fostered the fragmentation of D. dyeriana within refugia. Following their divergence, the western group kept relatively stable effective population size, whereas the eastern group had experienced 500-fold population expansion during the Holocene. Although clear loss of genetic diversity by human activities was not suggested, recent habitat fragmentation has led to a reduction of population connectivity and increased genetic differentiation by ongoing genetic drift in isolated populations, possibly owing to decreased population size in recent dozen years. Finally, we discussed the implications of these results on conservation policies.

  13. Direct and indirect effects of climate on demography and early growth of Pinus sylvestris at the rear edge: changing roles of biotic and abiotic factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Benavides

    Full Text Available Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation. Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.

  14. Direct and indirect effects of climate on demography and early growth of Pinus sylvestris at the rear edge: changing roles of biotic and abiotic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, Raquel; Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Escudero, Adrián; Hódar, José A; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Rincón, Ana M; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition) and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation). Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.

  15. Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

  16. [Population demography in Rhinella arenarum (Anura: Bufonidae) and Physalaemus biligonigerus (Anura: Leiuperidae) in agroecosystems in the province of Córdoba, Argentina].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bionda, Clarisa; Lajmanovich, Rafael; Salas, Nancy; Martino, Adolfo; di Tada, Ismael

    2013-09-01

    The advancing agricultural frontier has led to an important loss of natural habitats, with significant consequences for biodiversity. The demography for two species of anurans, Physalaemus biligonigerus and Rhinella arenarum, both associated with agricultural systems in the central region of the C6rdoba Province, were analyzed and compared in this study. Four sites were sampled: three agroecosystems with different alteration degrees (C1, C2 and SM1) and a fourth site not cultivated (SM2). The sampling was conducted during two reproductive periods, from September 2008 to April 2009 and September 2009 to April 2010. Individuals were captured using live pitfall traps for the metamorphic, juveniles and adults; and visual encounter survey, for the capture of eggs and larvae. With the abundance data, the survival for each age class was estimated using the KNM method (Kiritani Nakasuki Manly). With survival rates and fertility population, Leslie matrices were elaborated to obtain a quantitative projection of the population size. Altered environments showed lower eggs and larvae survival. Population projections were favorable in the site SM2 and were less favorable and a tendency to extinction, in sites dominated by crops. This study showed that the agroecosystems of this region are possibly inhospitable environments for reproduction and survival of the species studied. The aquatic stages in the life cycle of both species would be the more affected, since water bodies deterioration is present or may occur in those areas. We can recognize species-specific effects of agricultural ecosystems; P. biligonigerus was the most affected species, possibly because of their life histories and habitat requirements. We suggested that environmental degradation caused by the cropland in the central region of Argentina would impact on the demographics of the anuran populations in the area.

  17. A morphometric study of antral G-cell density in a sample of adult general population: comparison of three different methods and correlation with patient demography, helicobacter pylori infection, histomorphology and circulating gastrin levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Fredrik; Borch, Kurt; Rehfeld, Jens F

    2008-01-01

    whether these methods are intercorrelated and the relation of these methods to plasma gastrin concentrations, demography, the occurrence of H. pylori infection and chronic gastritis. Gastric antral mucosal biopsy sections from 273 adults (188 with and 85 without H pylori infection) from a general...... population sample were examined immunohistochemically for G-cells using cell counting, stereology (point counting) and computerized image analysis. Gastritis was scored according to the updated Sydney system. Basal plasma gastrin concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay. The three methods for G...

  18. [Demography and employment in Portugal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barata, O S

    1981-01-01

    The population of Portugal showed a period of slow growth between 1950-60; however, in the 1970s, the return of large numbers of former residents in African territories along with a reduction in emigration changed the trend so that the 1981 census showed a significant increase. The Portuguese economy, on the other hand, is in a state of crisis which has resulted in large numbers of unemployed. The growth of the population along with these hard times has made it more difficult to reduce the rate of unemployment. It is also more difficult for those leaving school to find jobs. The better educated generations are seeking jobs in industry and in other services that Portugal will find difficult to offer in sufficient numbers in the immediate future. At present, the Portuguese economy has a large component of agricultural labor. In any case, the means of economic and social intervention to fight unemployment have limited potential. Therefore, many of those unable to find jobs in Portugal will attempt to emigrate. Many Portuguese are already working in Germany, France, and in other Western European countries but migration today is much more difficult. In addition, these countries cannot be expected to recive many more migrant workers in the future. In fact, those better educated workers from Portugal will not be very interested in the low paying jobs which can be found more easily by foreign workers in Western Euorpe. Many will therefore attempt to find jobs in non-European countries. There has been a recent increase of migration to Canada and the US. A renewal of interest in jobs in Brazil and other South Amerian countries is also to be expected. There may also be a future increase in the number of experts, technicians, and other qualified personnel emigrating to Portuguese speaking African countries if there is adequate security and if these countries find the way to expand economic growth. (author's modified)

  19. Fertility transition: forecast for demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, M; Nicotra, M; Gloria-Bottini, E

    2008-08-01

    By the end of the 20th century most industrialized nations had undergone the so-called fertility transition, characterized by a reduction in fertility to below replacement level and a delay in age at initiation of child-bearing. An emerging concern is the severe economic and social consequences of this demographic decline. We present an overview of fertility changes in Italy in the second half of the 20th century and a mathematical model that may provide projections for the future of the demographic situation. Starting in 1950 the increment of the number of children born in Italy is initially positive; however, beginning in 1965 the trend suddenly becomes negative, and this negative trend further increased in 1975. A slight improvement is observed in 1980, followed by a stable situation beginning in 1987. Relevant socioeconomic and cultural events in Italy coincide with these variations in the fertility trend. Malnutrition, which had been endemic for centuries in some areas of central and southern Italy, disappeared rather abruptly in early 1960. The improvement in the economic situation was also associated with a decrease in illiteracy and with many sociocultural changes, with the emergence of new demands that decreased propensity for childbearing. The additional deceleration observed in 1975 corresponds to the diffusion of contraceptive procedures. The progression of sociocultural changes has led to a progressive liberation of women from the biological burden of childbearing. Two phenomena seem relevant in this context: women's emerging interest in entering the workforce and the possibility to disconnect sex from childbearing. The social function of feminism has overwhelmed the primary function of survival and diffusion of the species, giving rise to relevant and worrying demographic effects. However, the modern woman has an unconscious memory of her primary biological role, depending on both her genetic structure and cultural heritage, that should bring about a change in the present strong tendency to demographic decline. The basic notion of memory functions is widely recognized in sciences, for example, in the evolutionary theory of Darwin. Here, we introduce into the equations governing population growth a memory mechanism and a perturbation, and we estimate the reactions of the system to perturbations caused by environmental changes and subsequent delayed effects, such as those that appear in the birth rate beginning in 1965 and 1975. The mathematical modeling of the effects of perturbations of the fertility rate in the Italian population, with the introduction of a mathematical memory formalism, suggests that the effect is strongly reduced, with a relaxation time of about 10 years when the fertility rate approaches a stable value.

  20. Demography or selection on linked cultural traits or genes? Investigating the driver of low mtDNA diversity in the sperm whale using complementary mitochondrial and nuclear genome analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Phillip A; Foote, Andrew D; Baker, C Scott; Hancock-Hanser, Brittany L; Kaschner, Kristin; Mate, Bruce R; Mesnick, Sarah L; Pease, Victoria L; Rosel, Patricia E; Alexander, Alana

    2018-04-19

    Mitochondrial DNA has been heavily utilized in phylogeography studies for several decades. However, underlying patterns of demography and phylogeography may be misrepresented due to coalescence stochasticity, selection, variation in mutation rates, and cultural hitchhiking (linkage of genetic variation to culturally transmitted traits affecting fitness). Cultural hitchhiking has been suggested as an explanation for low genetic diversity in species with strong social structures, counteracting even high mobility, abundance and limited barriers to dispersal. One such species is the sperm whale, which shows very limited phylogeographic structure and low mtDNA diversity despite a worldwide distribution and large population. Here, we use analyses of 175 globally distributed mitogenomes and three nuclear genomes to evaluate hypotheses of a population bottleneck/expansion versus a selective sweep due to cultural-hitchhiking or selection on mtDNA as the mechanism contributing to low worldwide mitochondrial diversity in sperm whales. In contrast to mtDNA control region (CR) data, mitogenome haplotypes are largely ocean-specific, with only one of 80 shared between the Atlantic and Pacific. Demographic analyses of nuclear genomes suggest low mtDNA diversity is consistent with a global reduction in population size that ended approximately 125,000 years ago, correlated with the Eemian interglacial. Phylogeographic analysis suggests that extant sperm whales descend from maternal lineages endemic to the Pacific during the period of reduced abundance, and have subsequently colonized the Atlantic several times. Results highlight the apparent impact of past climate change, and suggest selection and hitchhiking are not the sole processes responsible for low mtDNA diversity in this highly social species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. COMADRE: a global database of animal demography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salguero-Gómez, R.; Jones, O.R.; Archer, C.R.; Bein, C.; de Buhr, H.; Farack, C.; Gottschalk, F.; Hartmann, A.; Henning, A.; Hoppe, G.; Römer, G.; Ruoff, T.; Sommer, V.; Wille, J.; Voigt, J; Zeh, S.; Vieregg, D.; Buckley, Y.M.; Che-Castaldo, J.; Hodgson, D.; Scheuerlein, A.; Caswell, H.; Vaupel, J.W.

    2016-01-01

    1. The open-data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open-data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics

  2. Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rougoor, Ward; Van Marrewijk, Charles

    2015-01-01

    Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic

  3. The bicalutamide Early Prostate Cancer Program. Demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    See, W A.; McLeod, D; Iversen, P

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The optimal treatment for early prostate cancer has yet to be established. A well-tolerated hormonal therapy such as bicalutamide could be a useful treatment option in this setting, either as adjuvant or immediate therapy. A major collaborative clinical trials program was set up...... to investigate bicalutamide as a treatment option for local prostate cancer (localized or locally advanced disease). METHODS: The bicalutamide Early Prostate Cancer program comprises three randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of similar design that are being conducted in distinct geographical...... areas (North America; Australia, Europe, Israel, South Africa and Mexico; and Scandinavia). Men with T1b-4N0-1M0 (TNM 1997) prostate cancer have been randomized on a 1:1 basis to receive bicalutamide 150 mg daily or placebo. Recruitment to the program closed in July 1998, and follow-up is ongoing. Study...

  4. Interdisciplinary approach to the demography of Jamaica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deason, Michael L; Salas, Antonio; Newman, Simon P; Macaulay, Vincent A; St A Morrison, Errol Y; Pitsiladis, Yannis P

    2012-02-23

    The trans-Atlantic slave trade dramatically changed the demographic makeup of the New World, with varying regions of the African coast exploited differently over roughly a 400 year period. When compared to the discrete mitochondrial haplotype distribution of historically appropriate source populations, the unique distribution within a specific source population can prove insightful in estimating the contribution of each population. Here, we analyzed the first hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA in a sample from the Caribbean island of Jamaica and compared it to aggregated populations in Africa divided according to historiographically defined segments of the continent's coastline. The results from these admixture procedures were then compared to the wealth of historic knowledge surrounding the disembarkation of Africans on the island. In line with previous findings, the matriline of Jamaica is almost entirely of West African descent. Results from the admixture analyses suggest modern Jamaicans share a closer affinity with groups from the Gold Coast and Bight of Benin despite high mortality, low fecundity, and waning regional importation. The slaves from the Bight of Biafra and West-central Africa were imported in great numbers; however, the results suggest a deficit in expected maternal contribution from those regions. When considering the demographic pressures imposed by chattel slavery on Jamaica during the slave era, the results seem incongruous. Ethnolinguistic and ethnographic evidence, however, may explain the apparent non-random levels of genetic perseverance. The application of genetics may prove useful in answering difficult demographic questions left by historically voiceless groups.

  5. Epidemiology and demography in public health

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Killewo, J. Z. J; Heggenhougen, Kris; Quah, Stella R

    2010-01-01

    ... PageAcademic Press is an imprint of Elsevier 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA 32 Jamestown Road, London NW1 7BY, ...

  6. Demography and the extinction of European Neanderthals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent

    2011-01-01

    Causes previously suggested for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) in Europe, starting around 35,000 years ago, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. The aim here is to formulate a demographic model with reconstructed fertility and de...... uncertainty. Finally, the option of regional migration between northern, middle and southern Europe is added, in order to capture population movements away from a region in response to deteriorating or improving climate. This model accounts for population developments, including the re......-population of the Middle and Northern regions of Europe during and after the warm Eem period. However, parameter choices that give plausible results during the initial 210,000 years also predict that the Neanderthals should have survived the latter part of the Weichselian ice age, despite competing for food with Modern...

  7. Geography, demography, and economic growth in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, D E; Sachs, J D

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate, topography, and natural ecology on public health, nutrition, demographics, technological diffusion, international trade and other determinants of economic development in Africa. The goal of this paper is to emphasize the need for intensified research on the issues at the intersection of ecology and human society. Geography was given emphasis because of three reasons: the minimal gain from another recitation of the damage caused by statism, protectionism and corruption to African economic performance; negligence of the role of natural forces in shaping economic performance; and tailoring of policies to geographical realities. The paper also discusses the general problems of tropical development and the focus of Africa's problems in worldwide tropical perspectives; demographic trends in Africa; use of standard cross-country growth equations with demographic and geographic variables, to account for the relative roles of geography; and the future growth strategies and the need for urban-based export growth in manufacturing and services. Lastly, the authors provide a summary of conclusions and discuss the agenda for future research.

  8. Demography and findings of reported rape cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quader, M M; Rahman, M H; Kamal, M; Ahmed, A U; Saha, S K

    2010-01-01

    Six hundred and ninety nine cases of alleged rape were studied by the authors during the period from 2007-2008 at the Mymensingh Medical College, Mymensingh. Of these cases, 122 had positive findings of recent sexual intercourse; 250 cases had the positive findings of habituated sexual intercourse, and 327 cases had no findings of sexual intercourse but they complained of forcible sexual intercourse and found no sign of sexual intercourse. Most of the alleged victims of rape were nulliparous 87.12% and parous was only 12.87%. 430 (61.51%) cases of reported victims who were students of schools and colleges were not considered as rape cases considering their victim's history of love affairs, leaving home secretly with their lovers, living with them for many days. Gang rape was not so common (4.29% of raped cases) in our study. Age groups, their occupations, living areas, time of arrival for medico-legal examination have been studied. Most of the cases were students (61.51%). A few numbers of victims were subjected to gang rape. Examination and reporting the cases have been discussed.

  9. Data bases and statistical systems: demography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreyenfeld, M.; Willekens, F.J.; Wright, James D.

    2015-01-01

    This article deals with the availability of large-scale data for demographic analysis. The main sources of data that demographers work with are censuses data, microcensus data, population registers, other administrative data, survey data, and big data. Data of this kind can be used to generate

  10. Demography and childcare in preindustrial societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewlett, B S

    1991-01-01

    The preliminary comparison of hunter gatherers, horticulturalists, and pastoralists is based on 57 preindustrial populations with demographic and child care data out of a potential of 1264 documented cultures from the Ethnographic Atlas. The purpose of this effort is to demonstrate that the demographic characteristics of a population influence its child care practices and provides clues to understanding child care patterns. Traditional practices and provides clues to understanding child care patterns. Traditional practices including multiple caregiving, multistage play groups, and parents or siblings as cultural transmitters are reviewed in a demographic context. Other emerging practices are also discussed: the role of stepparents and differential parental investment in sons and daughters. Anthropological data published and unpublished included only those using standardized methods on total fertility, infant or child mortality, and/or sex/age distribution. Problems with the data set include limited cultural representation, small study sizes, limited time trends, and reliability. There is a concentration on the ]Kung San, Efe, Aka, Gidjingali, Yanomamo, Dusan, Semai, and Kipsigis. Only 7 of the 57 are outside the tropics. Foragers are farmers are primarily represented, because the pastoralists are primarily East African and smaller samples. Tables provide cultural specific data on total fertility rates (TRF), infant and child mortality, and sex ratios at birth and among the juvenile and adult population. Sections are devoted to methods, general patterns, traditional characteristics of childcare based on 5 hypotheses, and emergent trends with 2 more hypotheses on stepparenting and male preference. 2 patterns prevail: 1) hunter gatherers and horticulturalists/pastoralists show great intercultural variability in fertility and mortality rates, and 2) the ranges and means of both groups are very similiar. In the discussion of specific cultures, the hypothesis is proposed and then examples are drawn from the 57 studies to provide support or rejection of the hypothesis. The 1st postulated that the level of multiple care increases with the number of adult women without children increasing. The 2nd hypothesis is that the greater the density or compactness of the settlement, the greater the level of multiple care. It is reasoned in the 3rd that fertility and mortality patterns influence the nature of indulgent care of infants. The 4th hypothesis is that sex and age distributions and compactness of the camp influence the nature of the play ground and type of supervision. The 5th is that father involvement will be greater in societies with low population densities or isolated. The 6th is that a child rarely stays with natural parents throughout the dependency period. The 7th is that male biased juvenile sex ratios will exist in societies where the cost of raising males is or = that of raising families, or where males contribute more calories to the diet, or where male mortality is high.

  11. "Terrain Paper" on Demography and Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkinson, Harold L.

    Major demographic trends and consequences for higher education are examined. The Baby Boom sharply increased birth rates from 1946 to 1964 and was followed by a decline in births that lasted from 1964 to 1978. Currently there is an increased birth rate, but of much smaller size than the Baby Boom rates, due largely to the smaller size of the…

  12. Rattans of Vietnam: ecology, demography and harvesting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bui, My Binh

    2009-01-01

    Rattans are spiny climbing palms belonging to the Arecaceae family. Rattans may be single-stemmed or multi-stemmed in which stems (ramet) are clustered in a clump (genet). Rattan is an important non-timber forest product (NTFP) in almost all Southeast Asian countries. As demand for rattan products

  13. Asymmetric Demography and Global Financial Governance | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Different countries are at different stages of demographic change. These differences ("asymmetries") can create opportunities for mutually beneficial financial cooperation between them. However, flaws in the current international financial architecture and weak financial institutions in the developing world may constrain the ...

  14. Demography and the Evolution of Educational Inequality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mare, Robert D.

    The combined effects of differential fertility, differential mortality, and intergenerational educational mobility on the distribution of educational attainment in the United States were studied for women in the past half century. A simple model for the reproduction of educational hierarchies was used that takes these factors, plus age structure…

  15. Demography, Selection and Evolution in Conifers

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz Daniels, Rose

    2017-01-01

    Tesis Doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Biología. Fecha de lectura: 12-09-2017 La presente tesis doctoral la componen un total de 3 capítulos dedicados a inferir diferentes aspectos de la adaptación molecular en las coníferas. En el primer capítulo introducimos el trabajo y lo contextualizamos en el actual entendimiento de la genética molecular de las coníferas. En el segundo capítulo nos centramos en el estudio d...

  16. Temporal variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae), on Isla Palma, Malaga Bay, pacific coast of Valle del Cauca; Variacion demografica temporal de la tortuga de Rio Chocoana, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae), en Isla Palma, Bahia Malaga, Pacifico del Valle del Cauca.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garces Restrepo, Mario Fernando; Giraldo, Alan; Carr, John L

    2014-07-01

    Few long-term demographic studies have been conducted in freshwater turtles of South America despite the need for this type of inquiry to investigate natural variation and strengthen conservation efforts for these species. In this study, we examined variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle (Rhinoclemmys nasuta) based on a population from an island locality in the Colombian pacific region between 2005 and 2012. At this locality we captured turtles by hand in five streams with a total area of 0.4 ha. We calculated population size with the jolly-seber method and compared the population structure of four time periods (2005-06, 2007, 2011 and 2012). we calculated the probability of survival and capture probability for males, females and juveniles using the cormack jolly seber model and we estimated the rate of population growth with the Popan model. We found increases and decreases in population size, and a significant increase in the percentage of juveniles in 2011 and 2012. In all periods, females dominated the sex structure of the population. Temporal variation in population size may be due to natural changes in habitat or density dependent effects. However, it may correspond with normal fluctuations in population parameters, therefore continuous monitoring that can be correlated with environmental and physical factors of the habitat could elucidate the causes of the variation.

  17. Demography, migration, and the labour market in the UAE

    OpenAIRE

    DE BEL-AIR, Françoise

    2015-01-01

    GLMM - Gulf Labour Markets and Migration The objective of the paper is to draw a sketch of UAE’s population and migration dynamics, using the scarce data available from the federal and emirate-level statistical bureaus. In 2010, expatriates in the UAE were estimated to number 7,316,073 persons, twenty times the 1975’s figure of 356,343. Foreign nationals thus made up 88.5 per cent of the country’s total population; most were believed to come from Asia and especially from India. In the empl...

  18. Demography of publications in South Asian Orthodontic Journals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Gyawali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the demographic features of the articles published in South Asian orthodontic journals in the last 6 years. Materials and Methods: All the orthodontic journals published from or representing South Asian countries from 2011 to 2016 were analyzed for the number of issues published, number of articles, number of authors, country affiliation of principal author, and international collaboration in authorship. Further, article type was classified and number of citations was noted. Descriptive statistics was used to characterize the various features of the published articles. Results: A total of 825 articles were found in five orthodontic journals published from or representing South Asian region with the number authors per article ranging up to 10. International collaboration in authorship varied from 0.98% to 12.75% of articles among those journals. For all journals, principal authors of most of the articles originated from the country of publishing journal. Cross-sectional study overnumbered other types of researches. However, systematic reviews and meta-analysis which are considered as the highest form of evidence were very scant in these journals. Conclusions: International collaboration in authorship and foreign principal investigator was found minimum. Greater percentage of publications were cross-sectional studies with few randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews/meta-analysis in the last 6 years.

  19. DEMOGRAPHY AND SPATIAL POPULATION STRUCTURE IN CALIFORNIA TIGER SALAMANDER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although the causes of many amphibian declines remain mysterious, there is general agreement that human habitat alteration represents the greatest threat to amphibian populations. In January 2000 the US Fish and Wildlife Service proposed listing Santa Barbara County California Ti...

  20. Probabilistic and spatially variable niches inferred from demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey M. Diez; Itamar Giladi; Robert Warren; H. Ronald. Pulliam

    2014-01-01

    Summary 1. Mismatches between species distributions and habitat suitability are predicted by niche theory and have important implications for forecasting how species may respond to environmental changes. Quantifying these mismatches is challenging, however, due to the high dimensionality of species niches and the large spatial and temporal variability in population...

  1. COMADRE - A global data base of animal demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R.; Archer, C. Ruth

    2016-01-01

    spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world-wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population...... models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating...... comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal...

  2. [Demography and labor shortage. Future challenges of labor market policy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, J

    2013-03-01

    For demographic reasons, the German labor force will decrease dramatically and it will be much older on average. However, labor demand, especially for qualified workers, is expected to remain high. This paper focuses on the possibilities of expanding the labor force by increasing the participation rates of women and older persons. Herein, the change in the labor force is decomposed with respect to population and labor participation and, moreover, the effects of higher participation rates are simulated. The decomposition and simulation scenarios are based on data published by the Institute for Employment Research. The analysis clearly reveals that the effect of a considerably higher labor participation of women and older workers will disappear over time when the working-age population shrinks more and more. In addition, individuals who are currently unemployed or out of the labor force are not skilled enough. Since it seems difficult to get more qualified workers in the short and even in the medium term, improving the conditions for women and older people to take up jobs should be tackled soon. This includes investments in education and health care.

  3. Demography and genetic structure of a recovering grizzly bear population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, K.C.; Stetz, J.B.; Boulanger, J.; Macleod, A.C.; Paetkau, David; White, Gary C.

    2009-01-01

    Grizzly bears (brown bears; Ursus arctos) are imperiled in the southern extent of their range worldwide. The threatened population in northwestern Montana, USA, has been managed for recovery since 1975; yet, no rigorous data were available to monitor program success. We used data from a large noninvasive genetic sampling effort conducted in 2004 and 33 years of physical captures to assess abundance, distribution, and genetic health of this population. We combined data from our 3 sampling methods (hair trap, bear rub, and physical capture) to construct individual bear encounter histories for use in Huggins-Pledger closed mark-recapture models. Our population estimate, N?? = 765 (95% CI = 715-831) was more than double the existing estimate derived from sightings of females with young. Based on our results, the estimated known, human-caused mortality rate in 2004 was 4.6% (95% CI = 4.2-4.9%), slightly above the 4% considered sustainable; however, the high proportion of female mortalities raises concern. We used location data from telemetry, confirmed sightings, and genetic sampling to estimate occupied habitat. We found that grizzly bears occupied 33,480 km2 in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) during 1994-2007, including 10,340 km beyond the Recovery Zone. We used factorial correspondence analysis to identify potential barriers to gene flow within this population. Our results suggested that genetic interchange recently increased in areas with low gene flow in the past; however, we also detected evidence of incipient fragmentation across the major transportation corridor in this ecosystem. Our results suggest that the NCDE population is faring better than previously thought, and they highlight the need for a more rigorous monitoring program.

  4. [Electoral demography. The demographic dimension of a political process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, J M

    1991-01-01

    A complete and reliable knowledge of the potential voters is indispensable for holding elections in a democratic society. In 1990 a new Federal Code of Electoral Institutions and Procedures (COFIRE) was approved in Mexico. A new list of potential voters was to be created based on the 1990 census and without reference to the old list. The planning and implementation of the 1991 electoral rolls required great efficiency in order to complete the work in time for elections, while assuring its validity and legitimacy through a clear and participatory process in which all political parties played a permanent role. COFIRE designated July 1991 as the date for completion, allowing just 10 months for the entire process from planning to completion. The 1991 work represented a political process as much as a technical challenge. A working group from the political parties provided advice on all aspects of the work, from defining the social communications campaign to cartographic review and organization of field work. Although the list potential voters not intended for demographic purposes, its validity, coverage, and variety of information make it a rich source of sociodemographic information. An estimated 95% of individuals included in the 1990 census were included in the lists of prospective voters. Of these, 39,500,000 citizens, or 86% of the census population, actually registered as of the deadline on May 31. The final coverage by states varied from a low of 79.3% in Guerrero to a high of 91.0% in the Federal District.

  5. Ukrainean crisis: History, demography, economics, science, personal impressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaina, Alex

    An overview of the Economic and Demographic situation in Ukraine has been given. Some historical-scientific aspects of the actual crisis has been revealed. Between them: The soveitization of the Science, when scientists of Ukrainean origin work outside its borders, while the most influent and proliferous scientists inside the Country are of Russian origin. The percentage of astronomers of Russian origin is as great as ~40% while the percentage of the Russian population in Ukraine is about 20%. Another problem consist in low knowledge of the Ukrainean language by scientists working inside the Country.

  6. Mass Psychogenic Illness: Demography and Symptom Profile of an Episode

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binoy Krishna Tarafder

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mass psychogenic illness has been a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh over recent times. Objectives. This study was aimed at investigating the demographic characteristics and symptom profile of an outbreak of mass psychogenic illness occurring in a girls’ high school. Methods and Materials. In 14 April 2013, a total of 93 students of a girls’ high school suddenly developed various symptoms following intake of tiffin cake which resulted in panic and hospital admission. A descriptive, cross-sectional observational survey was done to define various characteristics of the outbreak. Results. No organic explanation for the reported illnesses was found. 93 female students were included who were hospitalized during the incident. Trigger factor was found in 98% of students. Most of the students were 13 years old. Average interval between exposure to the trigger and onset of symptoms was 151.5 minutes. Commonest symptoms were abdominal pain (83%, headache (73%, chest pain (69%, body ache (63%, nausea (69%, and generalized weakness and fatigue (61%. Hospital stay following the incident was about 12 hours on average. Conclusion. To avoid unnecessary panic in the community a prompt, coordinated response is important in resolving widespread community anxiety surrounding these episodes.

  7. Mass Psychogenic Illness: Demography and Symptom Profile of an Episode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarafder, Binoy Krishna; Khan, Mohammad Ashik Imran; Islam, Md. Tanvir; Mahmud, Sheikh Abdullah Al; Sarker, Md. Humayun Kabir; Faruq, Imtiaz; Miah, Md. Titu; Arafat, S. M. Yasir

    2016-01-01

    Background. Mass psychogenic illness has been a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh over recent times. Objectives. This study was aimed at investigating the demographic characteristics and symptom profile of an outbreak of mass psychogenic illness occurring in a girls' high school. Methods and Materials. In 14 April 2013, a total of 93 students of a girls' high school suddenly developed various symptoms following intake of tiffin cake which resulted in panic and hospital admission. A descriptive, cross-sectional observational survey was done to define various characteristics of the outbreak. Results. No organic explanation for the reported illnesses was found. 93 female students were included who were hospitalized during the incident. Trigger factor was found in 98% of students. Most of the students were 13 years old. Average interval between exposure to the trigger and onset of symptoms was 151.5 minutes. Commonest symptoms were abdominal pain (83%), headache (73%), chest pain (69%), body ache (63%), nausea (69%), and generalized weakness and fatigue (61%). Hospital stay following the incident was about 12 hours on average. Conclusion. To avoid unnecessary panic in the community a prompt, coordinated response is important in resolving widespread community anxiety surrounding these episodes. PMID:27294104

  8. Banking Strategy Demography - Future Population Trend: Implication for Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Teo, Lee Koon; Tripathi, Sanjay; Kazi, Zaid

    2010-01-01

    The world is going through a major shift in demographic structure that will affect the economies and global markets in a major way over the next few decades. While extensive research has been done on the macro-economic implications of demographic changes, very little research has been conducted on the demographic challenges at an industry level or for firms and on how these firms should react. The banking sector, in particular has received little attention. The project is initiated by the Glo...

  9. The Demography and Political Economy of Mexican Poverty: Conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serron, Luis A.

    To determine whether the poverty which afflicts between 50% and 60% of Mexico's population can be described in an ideologically neutral perspective, the paper formulates ten questions about political and economic issues which are sensitive to both capitalist and Marxist theorists. The questions concern: (1) the balance between food supply and…

  10. Evolutionary demography of agricultural expansion in preindustrial northern Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helle, Samuli; Brommer, Jon E.; Pettay, Jenni E.; Lummaa, Virpi; Enbuske, Matti; Jokela, Jukka

    2014-01-01

    A shift from nomadic foraging to sedentary agriculture was a major turning point in human evolutionary history, increasing our population size and eventually leading to the development of modern societies. We however lack understanding of the changes in life histories that contributed to the increased population growth rate of agriculturalists, because comparable individual-based reproductive records of sympatric populations of agriculturalists and foragers are rarely found. Here, we compared key life-history traits and population growth rate using comprehensive data from the seventieth to nineteenth century Northern Finland: indigenous Sami were nomadic hunter-fishers and reindeer herders, whereas sympatric agricultural Finns relied predominantly on animal husbandry. We found that agriculture-based families had higher lifetime fecundity, faster birth spacing and lower maternal mortality. Furthermore, agricultural Finns had 6.2% higher annual population growth rate than traditional Sami, which was accounted by differences between the subsistence modes in age-specific fecundity but not in mortality. Our results provide, to our knowledge, the most detailed demonstration yet of the demographic changes and evolutionary benefits that resulted from agricultural revolution. PMID:25232134

  11. Multiple classification analysis. Theory and application to Demography

    OpenAIRE

    Suseł, Aleksander

    2011-01-01

    Model analizy klasyfikacji wielokrotnej (MCA) jest addytywnym modelem mającym szersze możliwości zastosowania niż, np. modele regresji liniowej. Przede wszystkim ze względu na to, gdyż zmienne w modelu MCA mogą pochodzić ze skal np. przedziałowej czy nominalnej. Poza tym, możliwe jest określenie stopnia wpływu zmiennych niezależnych zarówno przed jak i po uwzględnieniu zmiennych kontrolnych. Wreszcie, nie jest wymagane spełnienie założenia liniowej zależności p...

  12. Unexpected demography in the recovery of an endangered primate population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen B Strier

    Full Text Available Assessments of the status of endangered species have focused on population sizes, often without knowledge of demographic and behavioral processes underlying population recovery. We analyzed demographic data from a 28-year study of a critically endangered primate, the northern muriqui, to investigate possible changes in demographic rates as this population recovered from near extirpation. As the population increased from 60 to nearly 300 individuals, its growth rate declined due to increased mortality and male-biased birth sex ratios; the increased mortality was not uniform across ages and sexes, and there has been a recent increase in mortality of prime-aged males. If not for a concurrent increase in fertility rates, the population would have stabilized at 200 individuals instead of continuing to grow. The unexpected increase in fertility rates and in adult male mortality can be attributed to the muriquis' expansion of their habitat by spending more time on the ground. The demographic consequences of this behavioral shift must be incorporated into management tactics for this population and emphasize the importance of understanding demographic rates in the recovery of endangered species.

  13. Demography of exploited tree species in the Bolivian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.

    2000-01-01

    Tropical forests are threatened world-wide. Therefore, there is a search for ways to use the forests in a sustainable way, as this could assist in the conservation of these special ecosystems. Non-timber products collected from trees in tropical forests are often mentioned as examples of

  14. The Influence of Demography on European and Future Armed Forces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stemmer, Ekkehard

    2005-01-01

    ... dramatically decline over the next thirty years. In comparison to Europe, the trend of aging in developing counties, for example in the Middle East and Northern Africa, presents a stark contrast...

  15. Genetic diversity and historical demography of kuruma shrimp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of kuruma shrimp ( Penaeus japonicus ) species complex off China based on ... of 454-bp at 5' end of mitochondrial DNA control region were conducted. ... analyses suggested a late Pleistocene population expansion for both variety I ...

  16. Demography of the Pryor Mountain wild horses, 1993-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelle, James E.; Singer, Francis J.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.; Ransom, Jason I.; Coates-Markle, Linda; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.

    2010-01-01

    Wild horses (Equus caballus) at Pryor Mountain were studied by direct observation from 1993 through 2007. All horses present were individually identifiable on the basis of coat coloration, head and leg markings, gender, and band associations. Of the 609 horses either present prior to foaling in 1993 or born since, ages were precisely known for 491 (observed as a foal). Ages for 52 horses were estimated through tooth eruption and wear patterns, and for the remaining 66 horses through body size, morphology, and anecdotal evidence concerning when they were present on the range. At varying intensities, never less than 30 days per year, all horses were inventoried and their band associations noted. Foals were paired with dams based on observations of attachment during the early days and weeks of life. Year of death was determined by identification of the carcass where possible. In the absence of finding a carcass, an animal that was not observed for 2 years was considered to have died in the year that it went missing. Animals that were removed from the herd and mares that were part of a contraception study were excluded from calculations of survival and foaling rates, respectively, as appropriate. The average prefoaling population over the 15 years of the study was 148.8 animals (range = 120-187), and the annual foal crop averaged 32.1 (range = 23-40). Large removals (19-60 animals) in four years helped maintain the herd at this level; apparent growth rate (calculated as though removals had not occurred) was 9.6 percent annually (? = 1.096, range = 0.977-1.220). This annual growth rate is relatively low compared to that for many western horse herds, at least in part because of a decline in foal survival. Sex ratio of the foal crop varied widely among years, but pooled across years did not differ from 50:50. Sex ratio in the herd changed mostly as a result of removals. The average age of both males and females in the herd increased during the course of the study. Annual survival of males did not differ from that of females, nor did gender affect annual survival of foals. Pooled across years, ages, and sexes, the annual survival rate was 0.899. Annual foal survival rate was 0.697 and declined through time, with a tendency toward recovery in 2005-2007. Foal survival was higher in larger bands, but did not differ between foals born to primiparous and multiparous mares. A few 2-year-old mares produced foals; foaling rate (excluding contracepted mares and foals they produced) increased through age 10, remained high through age 15, and declined thereafter. Overall foaling rate for mares =3 years of age was 0.576 foals per mare, with no apparent trend during the period of our study. Foaling rate in years following gathers was somewhat lower than in other years. There was a positive relation between foaling rate and band size. Primiparous mares were somewhat less likely to foal in the following year than were multiparous mares. Most stallions that acquired a harem did so at age 5 or 6, and the average age of harem stallions increased during our study. Most harems had 1-3 mares =2 years of age, but harem size varied with age of the stallion, increasing through about age 11 and declining thereafter. About 6 percent of bands had a satellite stallion (=5 years of age), but the mean number of mares did not differ between single- and multistallion bands. Most stallions left their natal band at age 2 or 3, but 17 percent remained with their natal band until age 4 or 5. Foal survival rate was positively related to precipitation, suggesting a possible link to forage production and availability mediated through mare fitness. There also was evidence for density-dependent population regulation, as both population growth rate and survival rate were negatively correlated with population size from the previous year. These and other factors were not sufficient to stabilize the population during our period of study, however, as evidenced by the necess

  17. The changing world demography of type 2 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Green, Anders; Hirsch, Niels Christian; Pramming, Stig Krøger

    2003-01-01

    In recent years it has been estimated that the current global prevalence of type 2 diabetes amounts to about 150 million patients. Projections suggest that by the year 2025 the number of prevalent patients in the world will reach approximately 300 million. It is assumed that the increase in the n...

  18. Enterprise demography and foreign ownership: effects on employment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urlings, N.; Korvorst, M.; Fortanier, F.N.

    2011-01-01

    Current research has shown that foreign controlled enterprises are generally larger, employ more high-skilled employees and pay higher wages. However, a proper assessment of the employment consequences of firms requires consideration of longitudinal developments and demographic events such as

  19. [Historia magistra vitae: on the methods of historical demography].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botev, N

    1992-01-01

    Indirect estimation techniques are applied to data for Bulgaria from 1891 to 1958 to assess trends in population dynamics. An interdisciplinary approach is suggested for the study of countries where data are often incomplete. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

  20. Nontraumatic spinal cord injury: etiology, demography and clinics

    OpenAIRE

    Quintana-Gonzales, Asencio; Dirección Ejecutiva de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Funciones Motoras, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitador.; Sotomayor-Espichan, Rosa; Departamento de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Lesiones Medulares, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitado.; Martínez-Romero, María; Departamento de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Lesiones Medulares, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitador.; Kuroki-García, César; Departamento de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Unidad Motora y Dolor, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitador.

    2014-01-01

    We performed a retrospective and descriptive cross-sectional; study in 210 hospitalized patients with spinal cord injury at the National Institute of Rehabilitation (INR), Callao, Peru from 2000-2006. The goal was to describe etiology, and clinical and socio-demographic characteristics of non traumatic spinal cord injuries (LMNT). We found a prevalence of 27 % for LMNT, average age at onset of 32.0 years, male gender 50.5 %, and secondary education completed in 41.9 %, poverty 90.5 %. The inf...

  1. Genetic diversity and historical demography of Chinese shrimp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Both mismatch distribution analyses and neutrality tests suggested a late Pleistocene or Holocene population expansion (12,100 – 28,500 years ago) for the species, which was consistent with the geological period of formation of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. These results indicated that F. chinensis in the Yellow Sea and ...

  2. Epidemiology of Burn Injury and Demography of Burn Care Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-06-01

    epidemiologic surveillance, vide the nursing care required by an exten- microbiology support is required for diagno-v sively burned patient is one of the...MA. Pittsburgh bur study. 28. Purdue GF, Hunt JL, Prescott PR. Child abuse bynig an iandnci o, suspiciro JA Traumarg 1988 t Pittsburgh and Allegheny

  3. Demography, Psychosocial Factors, and Emotional Problems of Korean American Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sangmi; Bae, Sung-Woo

    2005-01-01

    This study attempted to identify emotional problems and examine the related demographic and psychosocial factors of 340 Korean American adolescents in a major metropolitan area. Results revealed that lower GPA, longer length of residence in the United States, subjects' poor self-esteem, greater severity of conflict with parents, and poor…

  4. Dairy goat demography and Q fever infection dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogerwerf, Lenny; Courcoul, Aurélie; Klinkenberg, Don; Beaudeau, François; Vergu, Elisabeta; Nielen, Mirjam

    2013-04-26

    Between 2007 and 2009, the largest human Q fever epidemic ever described occurred in the Netherlands. The source was traced back to dairy goat farms, where abortion storms had been observed since 2005. Since one putative cause of these abortion storms is the intensive husbandry systems in which the goats are kept, the objective of this study was to assess whether these could be explained by herd size, reproductive pattern and other demographic aspects of Dutch dairy goat herds alone. We adapted an existing, fully parameterized simulation model for Q fever transmission in French dairy cattle herds to represent the demographics typical for Dutch dairy goat herds. The original model represents the infection dynamics in a herd of 50 dairy cows after introduction of a single infected animal; the adapted model has 770 dairy goats. For a full comparison, herds of 770 cows and 50 goats were also modeled. The effects of herd size and goat versus cattle demographics on the probability of and time to extinction of the infection, environmental bacterial load and abortion rate were studied by simulation. The abortion storms could not be fully explained by demographics alone. Adequate data were lacking at the moment to attribute the difference to characteristics of the pathogen, host, within-herd environment, or a combination thereof. The probability of extinction was higher in goat herds than in cattle herds of the same size. The environmental contamination was highest within cattle herds, which may be taken into account when enlarging cattle farming systems.

  5. [Demography perspectives and forecasts of the demand for electricity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, L; Guimond, E

    1995-01-01

    "Demographic perspectives form an integral part in the development of electric load forecasts. These forecasts in turn are used to justify the addition and repair of generating facilities that will supply power in the coming decades. The goal of this article is to present how demographic perspectives are incorporated into the electric load forecasting in Quebec. The first part presents the methods, hypotheses and results of population and household projections used by Hydro-Quebec in updating its latest development plan. The second section demonstrates applications of such demographic projections for forecasting the electric load, with a focus on the residential sector." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) excerpt

  6. Demography of the Seychelles Black Paradise-flycatcher ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    % (13) of which were confirmed as territory-holding individuals. We present a simple model to predict population growth using the above data, and discuss implications for the creation of additional self-sustaining populations on suitable islands.

  7. Influence of demography and environment on persistence in toad populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Brad A.; Schorr, Robert A.; Schneider, Scott C.; Muths, Erin L.

    2016-01-01

    Effective conservation of rare species requires an understanding of how potential threats affect population dynamics. Unfortunately, information about population demographics prior to threats (i.e., baseline data) is lacking for many species. Perturbations, caused by climate change, disease, or other stressors can lead to population declines and heightened conservation concerns. Boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) have undergone rangewide declines due mostly to the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), with only a few sizable populations remaining in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, that are disease-free. Despite the apparent region-wide occurrence of Bd, our focal populations in central Colorado were disease free over a 14-year capture-mark-recapture study until the recent discovery of Bd at one of the sites. We used recapture data and the Pradel reverse-time model to assess the influence of environmental and site-specific conditions on survival and recruitment. We then forecast changes in the toad populations with 2 growth models; one using an average lambda value to initiate the projection, and one using the most recent value to capture potential effects of the incursion of disease into the system. Adult survival was consistently high at the 3 sites, whereas recruitment was more variable and markedly low at 1 site. We found that active season moisture, active season length, and breeding shallows were important factors in estimating recruitment. Population growth models indicated a slight increase at 1 site but decreasing trends at the 2 other sites, possibly influenced by low recruitment. Insight into declining species management can be gained from information on survival and recruitment and how site-specific environmental factors influence these demographic parameters. Our data are particularly useful because they provide baseline data on demographics in populations before a disease outbreak and enhance our ability to detect changes in population parameters potentially caused by the disease.

  8. Relational demography in coach-athlete dyads | Zhang | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study used an adapted version of Zhang's (2004) trust questionnaire to examine perceived characteristic and trust differences between coach and athlete dyads that differ in gender or ethnicity as well as in dyads that were similar. The four different gender dyad groups were male athlete with male coach (MAMC), ...

  9. Compulsive buying. Demography, phenomenology, and comorbidity in 46 subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, S; Black, D W; Repertinger, S; Freet, D

    1994-05-01

    Compulsive buying has been generally ignored in the psychiatric literature, although it is apparently frequent, underrecognized, and can lead to severe financial and legal consequences for its sufferers. The current investigation was designed to assess the overall life-style and problems of subjects identified as compulsive shoppers. Forty-six compulsive buyers were assessed for comorbid psychiatric disorders with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, the Structured Interview for DSM-III-R Personality Disorders, and a semistructured interview to assess buying behavior. The typical shopper was a 31-year-old female who had developed compulsive buying at age 18 years. Subjects spent their money on clothing, shoes, and records/compact discs. The average debt load accrued was $5,422 out of an average yearly income of $23,443. More than two-thirds met lifetime criteria for a major (Axis I) mental disorder, most commonly anxiety, substance abuse, and mood disorders. Nearly 60% were found to meet criteria for a DSM-III-R personality disorder, most commonly the obsessive-compulsive, borderline, and avoidant types. The authors conclude that compulsive buying is a definable clinical syndrome which can cause its sufferers significant distress and is associated with significant psychiatric comorbidity.

  10. Demography, genetic diversity, and population relationships among Argentinean Mapuche Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicia S. Goicoechea

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available Fertility, mortality and migration data from four Mapuche Indian communities located along a 215-km NE-SW linear area in the Province of Río Negro, Argentina, were collated with genetic information furnished by nine blood group systems and by mtDNA haplogroups. The demographic and genetic data indicated a clear dichotomy, which split the four populations into two groups of two. Differing degrees of non-Indian exchanges was probably the main determining factor for this separation. Total genetic variability was very similar in all groups, and the interpopulational variability accounted for only 10% of the total variability. A low prevalence of the Diego(a antigen among the Mapuche was confirmed. The fact that significant genetic heterogeneity and population clusters were found in such a small territorial region attests to the sensitivity of demographic and genetic approaches in unraveling human history.Dados relativos a fertilidade, mortalidade e migração de quatro comunidades de índios Mapuche localizadas em uma área linear na direção nordeste-sudoeste com 215 km de extensão na Província de Rio Negro, Argentina, foram associados com a informação genética fornecida por nove sistemas de grupos sangüíneos e os haplogrupos do DNA mitocondrial. Ambos os tipos de informação apontam claramente para uma dicotomia, as quatro populações sendo divididas em grupos de duas. O principal fator responsável por esta separação é provavelmente graus diferentes de mistura com não-índios. A variabilidade genética total foi muito similar em todos os grupos, aquela entre populações sendo de apenas 10% deste valor. Foi confirmada a baixa prevalência do antígeno Diego(a entre os Mapuche. O fato de que heterogeneidade genética significativa e conjuntos populacionais diversos foram observados em uma região territorial tão pequena demonstra a sensibilidade dos enfoques demográfico e genético no esclarecimento da história humana.

  11. The prehistory of the Arabian peninsula: deserts, dispersals, and demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groucutt, Huw S; Petraglia, Michael D

    2012-05-01

    As a geographic connection between Africa and the rest of Eurasia, the Arabian Peninsula occupies a central position in elucidating hominin evolution and dispersals. Arabia has been characterized by extreme environmental fluctuation in the Quaternary, with profound evolutionary and demographic consequences. Despite the importance of the region, Arabia remains understudied. Recent years, however, have seen major developments in environmental studies and archeology, revealing that the region contains important records that should play a significant role in future paleoanthropological narratives.(1-3) The emerging picture of Arabia suggests that numerous dispersals of hominin populations into the region occurred. Populations subsequently followed autochthonous trajectories, creating a distinctive regional archeological record. Debates continue on the respective roles of regional hominin extinctions and population continuity, with the latter suggesting adaptation to arid conditions. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Wittemyer

    Full Text Available Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing. These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults, annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years and females (21.8 years. Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches, supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.

  13. The pace of aging: Intrinsic time scales in demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Wrycza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pace of aging is a concept that captures the time-related aspect of aging. It formalizesthe idea of a characteristic life span or intrinsic population time scale. In the rapidly developing field of comparative biodemography, measures that account for inter-speciesdifferences in life span are needed to compare how species age. Objective: We aim to provide a mathematical foundation for the concept of pace. We derive desiredmathematical properties of pace measures and suggest candidates which satisfy these properties. Subsequently, we introduce the concept of pace-standardization, which reveals differences in demographic quantities that are not due to pace. Examples and consequences are discussed. Conclusions: Mean life span (i.e., life expectancy from birth or from maturity is intuitively appealing,theoretically justified, and the most appropriate measure of pace. Pace-standardizationprovides a serviceable method for comparative aging studies to explore differences indemographic patterns of aging across species, and it may considerably alter conclusionsabout the strength of aging.

  14. Cultural complexity and demography: the case of folktales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acerbi, A.; Kendal, J.; Tehrani, J.

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the relationship between cultural complexity and population size in a non-technological cultural domain for which we have suitable quantitative records: folktales. We define three levels of complexity for folk narratives: the number of tale types, the number of narrative motifs, and,

  15. The Influence of Demography on European and Future Armed Forces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stemmer, Ekkehard

    2005-01-01

    Such demographic factors in Europe as low fertility rates, high life expectancy, and the restricted immigration policy have caused European societies to age rapidly and the population of Europe will...

  16. Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.

  17. Demography in the United States: Some Twentieth Century Myths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egbert, Robert L.

    Five demographic myths related to education pose dangers to educational planning and thinking. The first myth says the return of service personnel after World War II caused the baby boom. Actually the baby boom began in 1939 and was not related to service personnel. The second myth claims the Great Depression decreased the birth and fertility…

  18. Demography of Northern Spotted Owls in southwestern Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabel, Cynthia J.; Salmons, Susan E.; Forsman, Eric D.; DeStefano, Stephen; Raphael, Martin G.; Gutierrez, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) are associated with lower elevation, commercially valuable, late-successional coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest. Meta-analyses of demographic parameters indicate that Northern Spotted Owl populations are declining throughout their range (Anderson and Burnham 1992, Burnham et al. this volume). Recent research has attempted to determine whether management activities have affected the viability of Spotted Owl populations, and results have led to development of conservation plans for the species (Dawson et al. 1987, Thomas et al. 1990, Murphy and Noon 1992, USDI 1992, Thomas et al. 1993b).In the Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl (USDI 1992b) threats to the species were identified as small population sizes, declining populations, limited amounts of habitat, continued loss and fragmentation of habitat, geographically isolated populations, and predation and competition from other avian species. Weather and fire are natural processes that also may affect reproductive success of Spotted Owls. Weather may be a factor in the high annual variability in fecundity of Spotted Owls, as has been suggested for other predatory bird species (Newton, 1979, 1986). However, these factors have not been addressed in previous studies of Spotted Owls.Our objectives were to estimate survival, fecundity, and annual rates of population change (l) for resident, territorial female Spotted Owls at two study areas in the coastal mountains of southwestern Oregon. We tested if the amount of rainfall was correlated with reproduction of Spotted Owls. While surveying for Spotted Owls, we documented the increased presence of Barred Owls (Strix varia), a potential competitor of Spotted Owls.

  19. White and Black Teachers' Job Satisfaction: Does Relational Demography Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Susan; Tobias, Robert; Corcoran, Sean; Djukic, Maja; Kovner, Christine; Noguera, Pedro

    2012-01-01

    Data on the impact of student, teacher, and principal racial and gender composition in urban schools on teacher work outcomes are limited. This study, a secondary data analysis of White and Black urban public school teachers using data taken from the restricted use 2003-04 Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), examines the effects of relational…

  20. Ramet demography of a nurse bromeliad in Brazilian restingas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Michelle C; Picó, F Xavier; Scarano, Fabio R

    2005-04-01

    Restingas are sandy coastal plains that stand between the sea and the Brazilian Atlantic forest mountains. The predominant restinga vegetation type in northern Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is characterized by the formation of islands that begins with colonization by some pioneer herbs and/or woody plants. Pioneer plants are stress-resistant and nurse many other less-resistant plant species. Determining the spatiotemporal variation in the dynamics of nurse plants is essential to understand the ecological functioning of restingas as a whole. The goal of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics of the nurse bromeliad Aechmea nudicaulis. We monitored A. nudicaulis ramets in different habitats, microhabitats, and years. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in demographic traits and in population growth rate. Results showed young ramet traits were more variable at the microhabitat level, and when variable, vegetative ramet traits varied at all spatiotemporal scales. Overall, λ values indicated that A. nudicaulis basically remained spatiotemporally stable as most of the λ values did not significantly differ from unity. Hence, the stability of A. nudicaulis in different microhabitats and habitats in the restinga may create several settlement opportunities for many other less-resistant species.

  1. Climate, demography, and zoogeography predict introgression thresholds in salmonid hybrid zones in Rocky Mountain streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Kevin S. McKelvey; Taylor M. Wilcox; Daniel M. Bingham; Kristine L. Pilgrim; Kellie J. Carim; Matthew R. Campbell; Matthew P. Corsi; Dona L. Horan; David E. Nagel; Michael K. Schwartz

    2016-01-01

    Among the many threats posed by invasions of nonnative species is introgressive hybridization, which can lead to the genomic extinction of native taxa. This phenomenon is regarded as common and perhaps inevitable among native cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout in western North America, despite that these taxa naturally co-occur in some locations. We conducted...

  2. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  3. Long-term demography of the Northern Goshawk in a variable environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Reynolds; Jeffrey S. Lambert; Curtis H. Flather; Gary C. White; Benjamin J. Bird; L. Scott Baggett; Carrie Lambert; Shelley Bayard De Bolo

    2017-01-01

    The Nearctic northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillis) is a resident of conifer, broadleaf, and mixed forests from the boreal to the southwestern montane regions of North America. We report on a 20-year mark-recapture investigation (1991-2010) of the distribution and density of breeders, temporal and spatial variability in breeding, nestling sex ratios, local...

  4. Comparative demography of two co-occurring Linum species with different distribution patterns

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2013), s. 963-970 ISSN 1435-8603 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : closely related species * flax * habitat occupancy Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.405, year: 2013

  5. Effects of the crisis in the resin sector on the demography of rural municipalities in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortuno Perez, S.; Garcia Robredo, F.; Ayuga Tellez, E.; Fullana Belda, C.

    2013-05-01

    Aim of study: The aim of this work is to test the positive effect of a substantially developed resin sector on rural demographic evolution. This work shows how in the period between 1970 and 2010 the demographic decline in the interior regions of Spain was more pronounced in areas characterized by the importance of resin-producing forest stands compared to other nearby rural municipalities where this natural resource is not present. Area of study: The study area consists of a set of rural municipalities in Central Spain, both resin and non-resin producing, in the provinces of Segovia, Avila, Valladolid, Burgos, Soria, Cuenca and Guadalajara. Material and methods: The relationship between resin production and population in resin and non-resin producing municipalities was modeled by means of linear regression analysis. Main results: Generally speaking, between 1950 and 1970 the production of resin halted demographic decline in the regions where this activity was substantially developed. However, when the resin sector entered into crisis in the 1970s, and the economic repercussions of this activity gradually ceased to be felt, the demographic decline in the regions which had been involved in resin production was much more acute than in other non-resin-producing rural areas. Research highlights: This work shows the relationship between resin extraction activity and population evolution in rural municipalities. Sustainable resin exploitation can contribute to the maintenance and development of rural communities, and should be used as a tool for generating employment in rural areas. (Author) 37 refs.

  6. Synergistic effects of seasonal rainfall, parasites and demography on fluctuations in springbok body condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential impacts on demographic groups, and the different time scales at which they operate. PMID:21831195

  7. SPATIALLY AUTOCORRELATED DEMOGRAPHY AND INTERPOND MIGRATION IN THE CALIFORNIA TIGER SALAMANDER (AMBYSTOME CALIFORNIENSE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We investigated the metapopulation structure of the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) using a combination of indirect and direct methods to evaluate two key requirements of modern metapopulation models: 1) that patches support somewhat independent populations ...

  8. Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high probability of nesting again. These results are encouraging considering that survival and reproduction have been major challenges in past reintroductions of this species. The demographic estimates developed will support construction of a management model designed to facilitate exploration of management actions of interest, and will provide critical guidance in future planning for this reintroduction. An approach similar to what we describe could be usefully applied to many reintroduced populations.

  9. Joint Estimation of Contamination, Error and Demography for Nuclear DNA from Ancient Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slatkin, Montgomery

    2016-01-01

    When sequencing an ancient DNA sample from a hominin fossil, DNA from present-day humans involved in excavation and extraction will be sequenced along with the endogenous material. This type of contamination is problematic for downstream analyses as it will introduce a bias towards the population of the contaminating individual(s). Quantifying the extent of contamination is a crucial step as it allows researchers to account for possible biases that may arise in downstream genetic analyses. Here, we present an MCMC algorithm to co-estimate the contamination rate, sequencing error rate and demographic parameters—including drift times and admixture rates—for an ancient nuclear genome obtained from human remains, when the putative contaminating DNA comes from present-day humans. We assume we have a large panel representing the putative contaminant population (e.g. European, East Asian or African). The method is implemented in a C++ program called ‘Demographic Inference with Contamination and Error’ (DICE). We applied it to simulations and genome data from ancient Neanderthals and modern humans. With reasonable levels of genome sequence coverage (>3X), we find we can recover accurate estimates of all these parameters, even when the contamination rate is as high as 50%. PMID:27049965

  10. Ancestry and demography and descendants of Iron Age nomads of the Eurasian Steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unterländer, Martina; Palstra, Friso; Lazaridis, Iosif; Pilipenko, Aleksandr; Hofmanová, Zuzana; Groß, Melanie; Sell, Christian; Blöcher, Jens; Kirsanow, Karola; Rohland, Nadin; Rieger, Benjamin; Kaiser, Elke; Schier, Wolfram; Pozdniakov, Dimitri; Khokhlov, Aleksandr; Georges, Myriam; Wilde, Sandra; Powell, Adam; Heyer, Evelyne; Currat, Mathias; Reich, David; Samashev, Zainolla; Parzinger, Hermann; Molodin, Vyacheslav I.; Burger, Joachim

    2017-03-01

    During the 1st millennium before the Common Era (BCE), nomadic tribes associated with the Iron Age Scythian culture spread over the Eurasian Steppe, covering a territory of more than 3,500 km in breadth. To understand the demographic processes behind the spread of the Scythian culture, we analysed genomic data from eight individuals and a mitochondrial dataset of 96 individuals originating in eastern and western parts of the Eurasian Steppe. Genomic inference reveals that Scythians in the east and the west of the steppe zone can best be described as a mixture of Yamnaya-related ancestry and an East Asian component. Demographic modelling suggests independent origins for eastern and western groups with ongoing gene-flow between them, plausibly explaining the striking uniformity of their material culture. We also find evidence that significant gene-flow from east to west Eurasia must have occurred early during the Iron Age.

  11. Conflicting research on the demography, ecology, and social behavior of Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogland, John L.; Cully, Jack F.; Rayor, Linda S.; Fitzgerald, James P.

    2012-01-01

    Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) are rare, diurnal, colonial, burrowing, ground-dwelling squirrels. Studies of marked individuals living under natural conditions in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s showed that males are heavier than females throughout the year; that adult females living in the same territory are consistently close kin; and that females usually mate with the sexually mature male(s) living in the home territory. Research from 2007 through 2010 challenges all 3 of these findings. Here we discuss how different methods might have led to the discrepancies.

  12. Impacts of ungulates on the demography and diversity of small mammals in central Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keesing, Felicia

    1998-09-01

    The impacts of ungulates on small mammals in an East African savanna habitat were investigated by monitoring the population and community responses of small mammals on replicated 4-ha plots from which ungulates had been excluded. The dominant small mammal in this habitat is the pouched mouse, Saccostomusmearnsi, a medium-sized murid rodent. Eight other small mammal species, including Arvicanthis sp., Mus sp., Mastomys sp., Dendromus sp., Crocidura sp., and, rarely, Tatera sp., Aethomys sp., and Acomys sp., were also captured. The dominant ungulates are elephant (Loxodonta africana), giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis), Grevy's and common zebra (Equus grevyi and E. burchelli), buffalo (Syncerus cafer), eland (Taurotragus oryx), Grant's gazelle (Gazella granti), and domestic cattle. Within 1 year, S. mearnsi populations had responded dramatically to the exclusion of large mammals by a two-fold increase in density, a difference that was maintained through pronounced seasonal fluctuations in the second year. Though individual pouched mice showed no significant differences in their use of space with and without ungulates, male S. mearnsi maintained significantly higher body weights in the absence of ungulates, indicating that habitat quality had increased. One other species, Mastomys sp., also increased in the absence of ungulates. Overall, the small mammal community maintained relatively constant species diversity on the plots to which ungulates did not have access. On the plots to which ungulates did have access, on the other hand, there was a rapid 75% decrease in diversity in the control plots during one trapping session. Ungulates are most likely affecting small mammals through their effects on food quality, since there were no detectable differences in their exposure to predators, as determined by vegetative cover, in the absence of ungulates. These results demonstrate that ungulates can have strong and rapid impacts on small mammal abundance and diversity in East African savannas, an interaction which has not previously been given serious consideration.

  13. Impacts of road deicing salt on the demography of vernal pool-breeding amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karraker, Nancy E; Gibbs, James P; Vonesh, James R

    2008-04-01

    Deicing agents, primarily road salt, are applied to roads in 26 states in the United States and in a number of European countries, yet the scale of impacts of road salt on aquatic organisms remains largely under-studied. The issue is germane to amphibian conservation because both adult and larval amphibians are known to be particularly sensitive to changes in their osmolar environments. In this study, we combined survey, experimental, and demographic modeling approaches to evaluate the possible effects of road salt on two common vernal-pond-breeding amphibian species, the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and the wood frog (Rana sylvatica). We found that in the Adirondack Mountain Region of New York (USA), road salt traveled up to 172 m from the highway into wetlands. Surveys showed that egg mass densities of spotted salamanders (A. maculatum) and wood frogs (R. sylvatica) were two times higher in forest pools than roadside pools, but this pattern was better explained by road proximity than by increased salinity. Experiments demonstrated that embryonic and larval survival were reduced at moderate (500 muS) and high conductivities (3000 muS) in A. maculatum and at high conductivities in R. sylvatica. Demographic models suggest that such egg and larval stage effects of salt may have important impacts on populations near roads, particularly in the case of A. maculatum, for which salt exposure may lead to local extinction. For both species, the effect of road salt was dependent upon the strength of larval density dependence and declined rapidly with distance from the roadside, with the greatest negative effects being limited to within 50 m. Based on this evidence, we argue that efforts to protect local populations of A. maculatum and R. sylvatica in roadside wetlands should, in part, be aimed at reducing application of road salt near wetlands with high conductivity levels.

  14. Demography and conservation of an isolated Spur-thighed tortoise Testudo graeca population in Dobrogea (Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Buică

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Spur-thighed tortoise is a vulnerable species. The local declines of populations led to an imperative need for conservation. Testudo graeca reaches its northern range limit in Dobrogea region, Romania. We studied a population from this region, which occupies an enclosed area of 32 ha within Histria Archaeological Complex. Based on a capture-mark-recapture study we estimated the population size of 221 ± 12.2 individuals. The observed density was 5.1 individuals/ha. The predicted population size suggests a relatively high density in relation to the area thus raising attention for a future conservation strategy. The population structure shows reduced sexual dimorphism and an unbiased sex ratio, implying a young population structure. We suggest correlating the future archaeological studies with conservation requirements of tortoises.

  15. The quick and the dead: microbial demography at the yeast thermal limit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Colin S; Magwene, Paul M

    2017-03-01

    The niche of microorganisms is determined by where their populations can expand. Populations can fail to grow because of high death or low birth rates, but these are challenging to measure in microorganisms. We developed a novel technique that enables single-cell measurement of age-structured birth and death rates in the budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and used this method to study responses to heat stress in a genetically diverse panel of strains. We find that individual cells show significant heterogeneity in their rates of birth and death during heat stress. Genotype-by-environment effects on processes that regulate asymmetric cell division contribute to this heterogeneity. These lead to either premature senescence or early life mortality during heat stress, and we find that a mitochondrial inheritance defect explains the early life mortality phenotype of one of the strains we studied. This study demonstrates how the interplay of physiology, genetic variation and environmental variables influence where microbial populations survive and flourish. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Demography of invasive black and pale swallow-wort populations in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincetoxicum nigrum (Black Swallow-wort) and Vincetoxicum rossicum (Pale Swallow-wort) are perennial twining vines introduced from Europe. Both species have become invasive in northeastern North America in a variety of habitats. To develop parameters for a population model for evaluating potential b...

  17. Sustainable development, demography and sexual and reproductive health: inseparable linkages and their policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Michael

    2014-05-01

    The greatest challenge today is to meet the needs of current and future generations, of a large and growing world population, without imposing catastrophic pressures on the natural environment. Meeting this challenge depends on decisive policy changes in three areas: more inclusive economic growth, greener economic growth, and population policies. This article focuses on efforts to address and harness demographic changes for sustainable development, which are largely outside the purview of the current debate. Efforts to this end must be based on the recognition that demographic changes are the cumulative result of individual choices and opportunities, and that demographic changes are best addressed through policies that enlarge these choices and opportunities, with a focus on ensuring unrestricted and universal access to sexual and reproductive health information and services, empowering women to fully participate in social, economic and political life, and investing in the education of the younger generation beyond the primary level. The article provides a strong argument for why the Programme of Action that was agreed at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) 20 years ago continues to hold important implications and lessons for the formulation of the post-2015 development agenda, which is expected to supersede the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Copyright © 2014 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Demography and disorders of German Shepherd Dogs under primary veterinary care in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Dan G; Coulson, Noel R; Church, David B; Brodbelt, Dave C

    2017-01-01

    The German Shepherd Dog (GSD) has been widely used for a variety of working roles. However, concerns for the health and welfare of the GSD have been widely aired and there is evidence that breed numbers are now in decline in the UK. Accurate demographic and disorder data could assist with breeding and clinical prioritisation. The VetCompass TM Programme collects clinical data on dogs under primary veterinary care in the UK. This study included all VetCompass TM dogs under veterinary care during 2013. Demographic, mortality and clinical diagnosis data on GSDs were extracted and reported. GSDs dropped from 3.5% of the annual birth cohort in 2005 to 2.2% in 2013. The median longevity of GSDs was 10.3 years (IQR 8.0-12.1, range 0.2-17.0). The most common causes of death were musculoskeletal disorder (16.3%) and inability to stand (14.9%). The most prevalent disorders recorded were otitis externa ( n  = 131, 7.89, 95% CI: 6.64-9.29), osteoarthritis (92, 5.54%, 95% CI: 4.49-6.75), diarrhoea (87, 5.24%, 95% CI: 4.22-6.42), overweight/obesity (86, 5.18%, 95% CI: 4.16-6.36) and aggression (79, 4.76%, 95% CI: 3.79-5.90). This study identified that GSDs have been reducing in numbers in the UK in recent years. The most frequent disorders in GSDs were otitis externa, osteoarthritis, diarrhoea, overweight/obesity and aggression, whilst the most common causes of death were musculoskeletal disorders and inability to stand. Aggression was more prevalent in males than in females. These results may assist veterinarians to offer evidence-based advice at a breed level and help to identify priorities for GSD health that can improve the breed's health and welfare.

  19. [Demography and donation frequencies of blood and plasma donor populations in Germany].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Sabine; Willand, L; Reinhard, B; Offergeld, R; Hamouda, O

    2008-08-01

    According to Article 22 of the Transfusion Act, the Robert Koch Institute collects and evaluates nationwide data on the prevalence and incidence of transfusion-relevant infections among blood and plasma donors in Germany. Due to revision of the Transfusion Act in 2005 not only the number of donations but also the number of donors has become available for analysis. Here we give a detailed account on the demographic profile and donation frequencies of German whole blood, plasma and platelet donors in 2006. Overall, 4 % of the German population eligible to donate were active as repeat whole blood donors in 2006; 0.3 % repeatedly donated plasma or platelets. Irrespective of the type of donation, the percentage of donors among the general population was highest among the youngest age group (18 to 24 years). While the age distribution of whole blood repeat donors roughly resembled that of the general population, with the greatest number among those aged 35 to 44, younger age groups were overrepresented among repeat plasma donors. Donation frequency varied depending on donor age and sex, with an average of 1.9 per year for whole blood donations, 11.9 for plasmapheresis and 4.0 for plateletpheresis. With the exception of the latter, men donated more frequently than women. For both sexes, donation frequency increased with age. Detailed knowledge of the demographic profile and changes in the composition of donor populations are essential for planning adequate blood supply. The data presented may serve as reference for assessing the consequences of measures that affect the number of donors and/or donations (for example changing deferral criteria) in Germany.

  20. The devil is in the dispersers: Predictions of landscape connectivity change with demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas B. Elliot; Samuel A. Cushman; David W. Macdonald; Andrew J. Loveridge

    2014-01-01

    Concern about the effects of habitat fragmentation has led to increasing interest in dispersal and connectivity modelling. Most modern techniques for connectivity modelling have resistance surfaces as their foundation. However, resistance surfaces for animal movement are frequently estimated without considering dispersal, despite being the principal natural mechanism...

  1. Habitat use and demography of Mus musculus in a rural landscape of Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Vanina A; Fraschina, Jimena; Guidobono, Juan S; Busch, Maria

    2013-04-01

    The main goal of the paper was to determine the habitat distribution of the house mouse (Mus musculus) within a rural landscape of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. We also studied the seasonal variation in abundance and reproductive activity. The habitats studied were poultry farms, human houses in a small village, cropfields, pastures, cropfield and pasture edges, riparian habitats (streams), railway embankments and woodlots. We captured 817 M. musculus and 690 individuals of 5 native rodent species. M. musculus was captured in poultry farms, houses, riparian habitats, cropfield and borders, but it showed a significantly higher abundance in poultry farms compared to the other habitats. Its presence outside poultry farms was significantly related to the distance to streams and poultry farms. The mean trapping success index of M. musculus did not show significant variations between periods, but the proportion of active males was significantly higher in the spring-summer period than in the autumn-winter period. All captures of M. musculus in cropfields, borders and riparian habitats occurred in the spring-summer period. The capture of M. musculus in many types of habitats suggests that it can disperse outside poultry farms, and streams may be used as corridors. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  2. The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Boulanger

    Full Text Available One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

  3. Reproductive value, sensitivity, and nonlinearity: Population-management heuristics derived from classical demography

    OpenAIRE

    Karsten R.; Teismann H.; Vogels A.

    2013-01-01

    In classical demographic theory, reproductive value and stable age distribution are proportional to the sensitivities of the asymptotic population size to changes in mortality and maternity, respectively. In this note we point out that analogous relationships hold if the maternity function is allowed to depend on the population density. The relevant formulae can essentially be obtained by replacing the growth rate ("Lotka'sr") with zero. These facts may be used to derive heuristics for popula...

  4. The demography of disability and the effects of immigrant history: older Asians in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutchler, Jan E; Prakash, Archana; Burr, Jeffrey A

    2007-05-01

    Using data from the 2000 U.S. census, we compare the older Asian population with U.S.-born, non-Hispanic whites with respect to three indicators of disability. Insofar as any Asian "advantage" in health vis-a-vis whites exists among the population aged 65 and over, our evidence suggests that it occurs primarily among the U.S.-born segments of this population. We also investigate how differences in disability levels among Asian immigrant groups are influenced by country of birth and by the combined effects of duration of residence in the United States and life cycle stage at entry. These results highlight the diversity of the older Asian population with respect to the ways in which immigration and origin history are linked to disability outcomes. We conclude that in later life, immigrant status confers few disability advantages among the Asian population in the United States.

  5. A contemporary issue in demography: the rising age at first birth, pros and cons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beets, G.C.N.

    2011-01-01

    Two decades after Aleš Hrdlička’s death the introduction of effective contraceptives broke the evolutionary link between sexuality and procreation. Since then we decide about having children or not, and if we want them we can also decide about their timing. As a consequence the number of children

  6. Population demography of the muskoxen in Jameson Land, 1982-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Aastrup

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies of the Jameson Land muskox population in Northeast Greenland were conducted 1982-1990 in conjunction with an oil exploration. A population monitoring program consisted of one yearly aerial survey in late winter and a ground survey for population composition in August. The estimated unadjusted minimum average population size was approximately 4000 with a maximum size of 4700 and a minimum of 2800 muskoxen. The monitoring program was adequate to detect an annual change of about 10%. Population composition data proved to be essential. The only indication of a negative impact from oil exploration was detected in the fraction of yearlings. The average calf proportion was roughly 18% and about half of the calves died during their first year. The population density and composition was similar to the Banks Island muskox population in Canada and to the West Greenland population although the latter population had a higher productivity. Seismic operations and/or climatic conditions may have had a negative impact on the calf survival during 1986-1989, when fractions of yearlings were significantly lower than before and after the exploration.

  7. Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

    1998-01-01

    The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

  8. Reproductive value, sensitivity, and nonlinearity: population-management heuristics derived from classical demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsten, Richard; Teismann, Holger; Vogels, Angela

    2013-05-01

    In classical demographic theory, reproductive value and stable age distribution are proportional to the sensitivities of the asymptotic population size to changes in mortality and maternity, respectively. In this note we point out that analogous relationships hold if the maternity function is allowed to depend on the population density. The relevant formulae can essentially be obtained by replacing the growth rate ("Lotka's r") with zero. These facts may be used to derive heuristics for population management (pest control). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The ecogenetic link between demography and evolution: can we bridge the gap between theory and data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; López-Sepulcre, Andrés

    2007-09-01

    Calls to understand the links between ecology and evolution have been common for decades. Population dynamics, i.e. the demographic changes in populations, arise from life history decisions of individuals and thus are a product of selection, and selection, on the contrary, can be modified by such dynamical properties of the population as density and stability. It follows that generating predictions and testing them correctly requires considering this ecogenetic feedback loop whenever traits have demographic consequences, mediated via density dependence (or frequency dependence). This is not an easy challenge, and arguably theory has advanced at a greater pace than empirical research. However, theory would benefit from more interaction between related fields, as is evident in the many near-synonymous names that the ecogenetic loop has attracted. We also list encouraging examples where empiricists have shown feasible ways of addressing the question, ranging from advanced data analysis to experiments and comparative analyses of phylogenetic data.

  10. Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Crone, Elizabeth E; Ramula, Satu; Tyre, Andrew J

    2018-04-01

    Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 × 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 × 10 observations). © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  11. Let's Put Demography Back into Economics: Population Pyramids in Excel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Humberto

    2018-01-01

    The economics curriculum today does not emphasize the study of population. This needs to change immediately because we are in the midst of another demographic sea change, slamming on the brakes right after a rapid acceleration during the last half of the twentieth century. Instead of glibly tossing a dependency ratio onto a slide, this article…

  12. Life and Death in the City: Demography and Living Standards during Stockholm's Industrialization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molitoris, Joseph John

    2015-01-01

    ’s intergenerational social mobility, and infant and child mortality during Stockholm’s industrialization and fertility transition. The results of this work challenge many existing explanations of the fertility decline and reveal how, despite overall improvements in living standards, elite socioeconomic groups were......This dissertation uses longitudinal micro-data from Stockholm between 1878 and 1926 to study the causes and consequences of the fertility transition and to examine the development of living standards inequality during industrialization. Although both processes have received much interest from...... able to continually leverage their superior resources to maintain significantly lower levels of infant and child mortality....

  13. Analysing the Demography and Migration Related Challenges within the Internal Periphery of South-Heves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tunde Bogardi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of my study is to perform an analysis with the application of regional statistical data, in order to understand the changes within the number of the population at South-Heves in the past period, and to the reveal its special characteristics compared to regional, national trends. The examined area is a classic internal periphery, a region “hit severely by social, economic and environmental crisis” (according to the draft proposal of Heves county’s regional development concept (2014-2020. Considering such regions, besides the examination of the intention to migrate, it is also important to see who will remain in the region. Experiences show that in case of regions with a more disadvantageous situation than average, generally classes of lower social statuses will become dominant, while as it is described by Győri-Nagy (2003, “the escape of competent classes of the population” can be observed. It results in a contra-selected local society which is unable to retain the young and ambitious. The future of the affected regions, settlements is largely determined by the perspectives perceived by young people who live there, and who shall start their families and careers there in the near future. I have conducted an empirical research amongst high-school students living and studying at South-Heves, focusing on issues such as whether the high-school age-group of this classic periphery is considering migration; if so, then what are the reasons, destinations, and as an important question from the aspect of the national strategy as well, how could these young people who are longing to go elsewhere manage their lives here, and how could we make them stay in their homeland (in a narrow sense. By investigating the intention to migrate, we also receive indirect answers for questions such as how could significant regional differences be reduced, and how could we close the gap in case of the most disadvantageous regions.

  14. AFSC/NMML/CCEP: Northern fur seal demography at San Miguel Island, California, 1974 - 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Mammal Laboratories' California Current Ecosystem Program (AFSC/NOAA) initiated a long-term marking program of northern fur seals (Callorhinus...

  15. Analyses of pig genomes provide insight into porcine demography and evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenen, Martien A. M.; Archibald, Alan L.; Uenishi, Hirohide; Tuggle, Christopher K.; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Rothschild, Max F.; Rogel-Gaillard, Claire; Park, Chankyu; Milan, Denis; Megens, Hendrik-Jan; Li, Shengting; Larkin, Denis M.; Kim, Heebal; Frantz, Laurent A. F.; Caccamo, Mario; Ahn, Hyeonju; Aken, Bronwen L.; Anselmo, Anna; Anthon, Christian; Auvil, Loretta; Badaoui, Bouabid; Beattie, Craig W.; Bendixen, Christian; Berman, Daniel; Blecha, Frank; Blomberg, Jonas; Bolund, Lars; Bosse, Mirte; Botti, Sara; Bujie, Zhan; Bystrom, Megan; Capitanu, Boris; Silva, Denise Carvalho; Chardon, Patrick; Chen, Celine; Cheng, Ryan; Choi, Sang-Haeng; Chow, William; Clark, Richard C.; Clee, Christopher; Crooijmans, Richard P. M. A.; Dawson, Harry D.; Dehais, Patrice; De Sapio, Fioravante; Dibbits, Bert; Drou, Nizar; Du, Zhi-Qiang; Eversole, Kellye; Fadista, João; Fairley, Susan; Faraut, Thomas; Faulkner, Geoffrey J.; Fowler, Katie E.; Fredholm, Merete; Fritz, Eric; Gilbert, James G. R.; Giuffra, Elisabetta; Gorodkin, Jan; Griffin, Darren K.; Harrow, Jennifer L.; Hayward, Alexander; Howe, Kerstin; Hu, Zhi-Liang; Humphray, Sean J.; Hunt, Toby; Hornshøj, Henrik; Jeon, Jin-Tae; Jern, Patric; Jones, Matthew; Jurka, Jerzy; Kanamori, Hiroyuki; Kapetanovic, Ronan; Kim, Jaebum; Kim, Jae-Hwan; Kim, Kyu-Won; Kim, Tae-Hun; Larson, Greger; Lee, Kyooyeol; Lee, Kyung-Tai; Leggett, Richard; Lewin, Harris A.; Li, Yingrui; Liu, Wansheng; Loveland, Jane E.; Lu, Yao; Lunney, Joan K.; Ma, Jian; Madsen, Ole; Mann, Katherine; Matthews, Lucy; McLaren, Stuart; Morozumi, Takeya; Murtaugh, Michael P.; Narayan, Jitendra; Nguyen, Dinh Truong; Ni, Peixiang; Oh, Song-Jung; Onteru, Suneel; Panitz, Frank; Park, Eung-Woo; Park, Hong-Seog; Pascal, Geraldine; Paudel, Yogesh; Perez-Enciso, Miguel; Ramirez-Gonzalez, Ricardo; Reecy, James M.; Zas, Sandra Rodriguez; Rohrer, Gary A.; Rund, Lauretta; Sang, Yongming; Schachtschneider, Kyle; Schraiber, Joshua G.; Schwartz, John; Scobie, Linda; Scott, Carol; Searle, Stephen; Servin, Bertrand; Southey, Bruce R.; Sperber, Goran; Stadler, Peter; Sweedler, Jonathan V.; Tafer, Hakim; Thomsen, Bo; Wali, Rashmi; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jun; White, Simon; Xu, Xun; Yerle, Martine; Zhang, Guojie; Zhang, Jianguo; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Shuhong; Rogers, Jane; Churcher, Carol; Schook, Lawrence B.

    2013-01-01

    For 10,000 years pigs and humans have shared a close and complex relationship. From domestication to modern breeding practices, humans have shaped the genomes of domestic pigs. Here we present the assembly and analysis of the genome sequence of a female domestic Duroc pig (Sus scrofa) and a comparison with the genomes of wild and domestic pigs from Europe and Asia. Wild pigs emerged in South East Asia and subsequently spread across Eurasia. Our results reveal a deep phylogenetic split between European and Asian wild boars ~1 million years ago, and a selective sweep analysis indicates selection on genes involved in RNA processing and regulation. Genes associated with immune response and olfaction exhibit fast evolution. Pigs have the largest repertoire of functional olfactory receptor genes, reflecting the importance of smell in this scavenging animal. The pig genome sequence provides an important resource for further improvements of this important livestock species, and our identification of many putative disease-causing variants extends the potential of the pig as a biomedical model. PMID:23151582

  16. Is Demography Destiny? Urban Population Change and Economic Vitality of Future Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Poot

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world. KEYWORDS: World population projections, urbanization, ageing, migration, ethnic diversity

  17. Influence of salinity on the life table demography of a rare Cladocera Latonopsis australis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Haridevan, G.; Jyothibabu, R.; Arunpandi, N.; Jagadeesan, L.; Biju, A.

    , 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 and 22 salinity). Triplicates were maintained for each treatment. The desired salinity in the experiment vials was prepared by dilution of GF/C filtered and autoclaved sea water with the desired volume of distilled water... production -0.943 p<0.001 23    Table 3 Tukeys HSD Pair wise comparison for age specific fecundity (mx) in different salinity treatments. Bold values indicates at significance level at p < 0.05. Salinity F. water 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 F. water 1 2 0.968 1...

  18. Demography and monitoring of Welsh's milkweed (Asclepias welshii) at Coral Pink Sand Dunes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent C. Palmer; L. Armstrong

    2001-01-01

    Results are presented of a 12-year monitoring program on the Coral Pink Sand Dunes and Sand Hills populations of the threatened Welsh's milkweed, Asclepias welshii N & P Holmgren. The species is an early sera1 member of the dune flora, colonizing blowouts and advancing with shifting dunes. When an area stabilizes and other vegetation encroaches, A. welshii is...

  19. Demography and sustainable management of two fiber-producing Astrocaryum palms in Colombia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    García, Nestor; Zuidema, P.A.; Galeano, G.; Bernal, R.

    2016-01-01

    The spear leaves of the palms Astrocaryum chambira and A. standleyanum have been traditionally used by Colombian indigenous communities as a source of fiber for handicraft production. Traditional management practices, including destructive harvest, have reduced population sizes of both species. We

  20. The Use of Historical Demography for Historical Sociolinguistics : the Case of Dunkirk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knooihuizen, Remco; Langer, Nils; Davies, Steffen; Vandenbussche, Wim

    2011-01-01

    This chapter combines historical demographic and linguistic research to come to an understanding of language shift in seventeenth-century Northern France. The article details the Francophone immigration to the town of Dunkirk around and after its annexation to France in 1662, focusing in particular

  1. Living on the edge: demography of the slender-billed gull in the Western Mediterranean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Sanz-Aguilar

    Full Text Available Small and peripheral populations are typically vulnerable to local extinction processes but important for the metapopulation dynamics of species. The Slender-billed gull (Chroicocephalus genei is a long-lived species breeding in unstable ephemeral coastal habitats. Their Western Mediterranean populations are relatively small and represent the edge of their global geographical distribution. At a local scale, using long-term data (14 years on annual breeding success and capture-resights of marked individuals, we estimated and compared the vital rates and evaluated the connectivity of two Spanish populations (Ebro Delta and Doñana varying in their local environmental conditions. At a metapopulation scale, we analyzed 22 years of data on breeding numbers to predict their future prospects by means of population demographic models. Local survival and breeding success of gulls from the Ebro Delta was lower than those from Doñana, which is likely the result of higher permanent emigration and/or winter mortality in the former. Gulls from the Ebro Delta wintered mostly in Mediterranean areas whereas those from Doñana did so in Atlantic coasts, where food availability is higher. Whereas adult local survival was constant, juvenile local survival showed temporal parallel variations between colonies, probably related to natal dispersal to other breeding colonies. Our results suggested that dispersal was higher at the Ebro Delta and gulls emigrating from their natal colonies settled preferentially in close patches. We found large fluctuations in breeding numbers among local populations probably related to the fact that the Slender-billed gull is a species adapted to unstable and unpredictable habitats with high abilities to disperse between suitable patches depending on environmental stochastic conditions during breeding.

  2. The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frye, Margaret; Bachan, Lauren

    2017-07-01

    This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response-such as 'don't know' or 'it's up to God'-have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women's 'calculus of conscious choice'. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country's fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women's likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.

  3. Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

  4. Population demography of an endangered lizard, the Blue Mountains Water Skink

    OpenAIRE

    Dubey, Sylvain; Sinsch, Ulrich; Dehling, Maximilian J; Chevalley, Maya; Shine, Richard

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Information on the age structure within populations of an endangered species can facilitate effective management. The Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is a viviparous scincid lizard that is restricted to < 40 isolated montane swamps in south-eastern Australia. We used skeletochronology of phalanges (corroborated by mark-recapture data) to estimate ages of 222 individuals from 13 populations. RESULTS: These lizards grow rapidly, from neonatal size (30 mm snou...

  5. The interplay of demography and selection during maize domestication and expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    The history of maize has been characterized by major demographic events including changes in population size associated with domestication and subsequent range expansion as well as gene flow with wild relatives. This complex demographic history and its interplay with selection have shaped diversity ...

  6. The Impact of Selection, Gene Conversion, and Biased Sampling on the Assessment of Microbial Demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapierre, Marguerite; Blin, Camille; Lambert, Amaury; Achaz, Guillaume; Rocha, Eduardo P C

    2016-07-01

    Recent studies have linked demographic changes and epidemiological patterns in bacterial populations using coalescent-based approaches. We identified 26 studies using skyline plots and found that 21 inferred overall population expansion. This surprising result led us to analyze the impact of natural selection, recombination (gene conversion), and sampling biases on demographic inference using skyline plots and site frequency spectra (SFS). Forward simulations based on biologically relevant parameters from Escherichia coli populations showed that theoretical arguments on the detrimental impact of recombination and especially natural selection on the reconstructed genealogies cannot be ignored in practice. In fact, both processes systematically lead to spurious interpretations of population expansion in skyline plots (and in SFS for selection). Weak purifying selection, and especially positive selection, had important effects on skyline plots, showing patterns akin to those of population expansions. State-of-the-art techniques to remove recombination further amplified these biases. We simulated three common sampling biases in microbiological research: uniform, clustered, and mixed sampling. Alone, or together with recombination and selection, they further mislead demographic inferences producing almost any possible skyline shape or SFS. Interestingly, sampling sub-populations also affected skyline plots and SFS, because the coalescent rates of populations and their sub-populations had different distributions. This study suggests that extreme caution is needed to infer demographic changes solely based on reconstructed genealogies. We suggest that the development of novel sampling strategies and the joint analyzes of diverse population genetic methods are strictly necessary to estimate demographic changes in populations where selection, recombination, and biased sampling are present. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  7. Plantations, paternalism, and profitability: factors affecting African demography in the old British Empire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littlefield, D C

    1981-01-01

    The author examines the reasons why the black population in North America during the colonial period managed to reproduce itself, in contrast to the black populations of the West Indies and Latin America, which did not. The answers are sought in the different rationales of the various plantation systems; in North America, the system resulted in better treatment, more equal numbers of men and women, and more importation of African women.

  8. Unintended pregnancy and the changing demography of American women, 1987-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athena Tapales

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In 1987, the U.S. unintended pregnancy rate was 59 per 1,000 women ages 15-44; the rate fell to 54 in 2008. Over this period, American women experienced dramatic demographic shifts, including an aging population that was better educated and more racially and ethnically diverse. Objective: This study aims to explain trends in unintended pregnancy and understand what factors contributed most strongly to changes in rates over time, focusing on population composition and group-specific changes. Methods: We used the 1988 and 2006-10 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth and employed a decomposition approach, looking jointly at age, relationship status and educational attainment. Results: When we decomposed by the demographic factors together, we found that changes in population composition contributed to an increase in the overall rate, but this was more than offset by group-specific rate declines, which had an impact nearly twice as great in the downward direction. Increases in the share of the population that was cohabiting and the share that was Hispanic were offset by declines in rates among married women. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that a combination of compositional shifts and changes in group-specific rates drove unintended pregnancy, sometimes acting as counterbalancing forces, other times operating in tandem. Contribution: This paper shows the importance of both changes in population composition and changes in group-specific behaviors to the changing unintended pregnancy rate in the United States.

  9. Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K

    2001-12-07

    Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we should expect to observe extinction rates higher than those predicted by simple species-area models. Here, we show that extinction rates for 41 species of large mammals in six nature reserves in West Africa are 14-307 times higher than those predicted by models based on reserve size alone. Human population and reserve size accounted for 98% of the observed variation in extinction rates between reserves. Extinction occurred at higher rates than predicted by species-area models for carnivores, primates and ungulates, and at the highest rates overall near reserve borders. Our results indicate that, where the harvest of wildlife is common, conservation plans should focus on increasing the size of reserves and reducing the rate of hunting.

  10. Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

    OpenAIRE

    Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K

    2001-01-01

    Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we...

  11. Drivers of plant species’ potential to spread: the importance of demography versus seed dispersal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hemrová, Lucie; Bullock, J. M.; Hooftman, D. A. P.; White, S. M.; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 123, č. 10 (2017), s. 1493-1500 ISSN 0030-1299 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.30.0048 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : landscape modelling * local oppulation dynamics * species traits Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.030, year: 2016

  12. Population structure and historical demography of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata, Rajidae) in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevolot, M.; Wolfs, P.H.J.; Palsson, J.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.; Stam, W.T.; Olsen, J.L.

    2007-01-01

    Population genetic structure of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) was surveyed in >300 individuals sampled from Newfoundland, Iceland, Norway, the Kattegat and the central North Sea. A 290-bp fragment of the mt cytochrome-b gene was first screened by SSCP. Sequences of SSCP haplotypes revealed

  13. Population structure and historical demography of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata, Rajidae) in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevolot, Malia; Wolfs, Peter H. J.; Palsson, Jonbjorn; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D.; Stam, Wytze T.; Olsen, Jeanine L.; Palson, J.

    Population genetic structure of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) was surveyed in > 300 individuals sampled from Newfoundland, Iceland, Norway, the Kattegat and the central North Sea. A 290-bp fragment of the mt cytochrome-b gene was first screened by SSCP. Sequences of SSCP haplotypes revealed

  14. Demography, Education, and Democracy: global trends and the case of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Cuaresma, Jesús Crespo; Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal

    2010-01-01

    Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambiguities about the effect of improving education as assessed using a global set of national time series. The results show consistently strong effects of improving overall levels of educational attainment, of a narrowing gender gap in education, and of fertility declines and the subsequent changes in age structure on improvements in the democracy indicator. This global relationship is then applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past two decades Iran has experienced the world's most rapid fertility decline associated with massive increases in female education. The results show that based on the experience of 120 countries since 1970, Iran has a high chance of significant movement toward more democracy over the following two decades.

  15. Demography of black-tailed prairie dog populations reoccupying sites treated with rodenticide

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. P. Cincotta; Daniel W. Uresk; R. M. Hansen

    1987-01-01

    A rodenticide, zinc phosphide, was applied to remove black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) from 6 haofa prairie dog colony in southwestern South Dakota. Another adjacent 6 ha was left untreated. The removal experiment was repeated two consecutive years. Contingency table analysis showed that the resultant population was not homogeneous;...

  16. Demography-adjusted tests of neutrality based on genome-wide SNP data

    KAUST Repository

    Rafajlović, Marina; Klassmann, Alexander; Eriksson, Anders; Wiehe, Thomas H E; Mehlig, Bernhard

    2014-01-01

    Tests of the neutral evolution hypothesis are usually built on the standard model which assumes that mutations are neutral and the population size remains constant over time. However, it is unclear how such tests are affected if the last assumption

  17. Accounting for clonality in comparative plant demography – growth or reproduction?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janovský, Zdeněk; Herben, Tomáš; Klimešová, Jitka

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 52, 3-4 (2017), s. 433-442 ISSN 1211-9520 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-19245S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Population matrices * Clo-Pla * Compadre Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 1.017, year: 2016

  18. The COMPADRE plant matrix database: an open online repository for plant demography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salguero-Gómez, R.; Jones, O.R.; Archer, C.R.; Buckley, Y.M.; Che-Castaldo, J.; Caswell, H.; Hodgson, D.; Scheuerlein, A.; Conde, D.A.; Brinks, E.; de Buhr, H.; Farack, C.; Gottschalk, F.; Hartmann, A.; Henning, A.; Hoppe, G.; Römer, G.; Runge, J.; Ruoff, T.; Wille, J.; Zeh, S.; Davison, R.; Vieregg, D.; Baudisch, A.; Altwegg, R.; Colchero, F.; Dong, M.; de Kroon, H.; Lebreton, J.D.; Metcalf, C.J.E.; Neele, M.M.; Parker, I.M.; Takada, T.; Valverde, T.; Vélez-Espino, L.A.; Wardle, G.M.; Franco, M.; Vaupel, J.W.

    2014-01-01

    Schedules of survival, growth and reproduction are key life-history traits. Data on how these traits vary among species and populations are fundamental to our understanding of the ecological conditions that have shaped plant evolution. Because these demographic schedules determine population growth

  19. Extrinsic ureteropelvic junction obstruction from a crossing renal vessel: demography and imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rooks, V.J.; Lebowitz, R.L. [Children' s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Dept. of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2001-02-01

    Background. The increase in the use of prenatal ultrasound has revolutionized the detection of hydronephrosis and has had an unanticipated consequence. Objective. To describe the new demographics of symptomatic ureteropelvic junction (UPJ) obstruction and the characteristic imaging findings, when the obstruction is extrinsic, from a crossing renal vessel. Materials and methods. From a uroradiology database (1994 through 1999) we identified children with surgically corrected UPJ obstruction from intrinsic and extrinsic causes. Results. One hundred children had symptomatic UPJ obstruction treated by surgery. In 51 (49 %), obstruction was due to a crossing vessel. One hundred and one had UPJ obstruction detected by prenatal sonography. Only 11 (11 %) were due to a vessel. Two clinical and imaging findings were strongly suggestive of obstruction from a vessel: (1) in 5 of the 100 children the symptoms (pain, nausea, and vomiting) were intermittent. Only when symptoms were present were there hydronephrosis and obstruction; (2) in 51 of the 100 children a short segment of ureter, just below the UPJ, was filled with contrast or urine (on renal sonography, intravenous urography, or retrograde/antegrade ureterography). Conclusions. Extrinsic UPJ obstruction caused by a vessel is an uncommon cause of obstruction when all patients are considered. However, in symptomatic older patients whose hydronephrosis was not first identified on prenatal sonography, a vessel was the cause of obstruction in one-half. (orig.)

  20. A Demography and Taxonomy of Long-term Immigration Detention in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Bull

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The practice of long-term immigration detention is a relatively recent aspect of Australian Government policy. There has been much debate about the wisdom of such policy, raising concerns regarding the health of detainees, the dereliction of human rights, and the legal robustness of such practice. Despite considerable interest, little detail is available describing who is being held and the reasons for their long-term detention. This paper addresses this noticeable gap through a systematic analysis of the Commonwealth Ombudsman’s Immigration Reports over the period 2005 through 2009. From such reporting it has been possible to produce a demographic profile of people held in Australian detention and to develop a taxonomy of the reasons contributing to the ongoing containment.

  1. [Demography of children in the Czech Republic in the 1980s].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fialova, L

    1996-01-01

    The author analyzes demographic trends affecting children in the Czech Republic in the 1980s. Aspects considered include parental age, employment status of mothers, divorce and remarriage, marriage patterns and living arrangements of young adults, and births outside marriage. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  2. Decadal change of forest biomass carbon stocks and tree demography in the Delaware River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing Xu; Yude Pan; Alain F. Plante; Arthur Johnson; Jason Cole; Richard Birdsey

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying forest biomass carbon (C) stock change is important for understanding forest dynamics and their feedbacks with climate change. Forests in the northeastern U.S. have been a net carbon sink in recent decades, but C accumulation in some northern hardwood forests has been halted due to the impact of emerging stresses such as invasive pests, land use change and...

  3. Minimum area requirements for an at-risk butterfly based on movement and demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Leone M; Crone, Elizabeth E

    2016-02-01

    Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species' traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7-1.5 ha, in accordance with trait-based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture-mark-recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape-scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Zostera marina root demography in an intertidal estuarine environment measured using minirhizotron technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over the last four decades there have been major advances in our understanding of the biology, ecology and physiology of seagrasses and their interaction with the environment. Despite these advances, there has been relatively little advancement in our understanding of the belowg...

  5. Demography, Capital Flows and Asset Allocation over the Life-cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Mann, Katja; Davenport, Margaret

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of population aging on portfolio choice, asset prices and international asset trades. In a multi-period OLG model, we analyze how an increase in longevity or a decrease in fertility in a country affects the demand for safe and risky assets. In a closed economy, given a fixed supply, the riskfree rate falls and the risk premium rises, because retirees prefer to hold a larger share of safe assets in their portfolio than working-age households. In a financially inte...

  6. Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Laurent

    2014-05-01

    The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

  7. Behavior and demography in an urban colony of Tadarida brasiliensis (Chiroptera: Molossidae in Rosario, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo C Romano

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Bat colonies were sampled in the city of Rosario to increase the understanding of bat ecology in urban areas of the southern cone of South America. Seven species were recorded, of which three are new records for Rosario. One representative colony was chosen for intensive ecological study. Approximately 64 000 Tadarida brasiliensis formed a maternity colony in the attic of an old building. Most of the bats were pregnant or lactating females and their young.. Adults arrive in the colony in mid-September and leave in February, no bats were present at this site from the beginning of March to mid-September. Births occur between mid-November and mid-December. Pups roosted in compact clusters in the nursery areas, spatially segregated from adults. Densities of these aggregations were 643 + 76 bats/m2 (p Con el objetivo de incrementar el conocimiento de la ecología de los murciélagos en áreas urbanas, se muestrearon colonias en la ciudad de Rosario. Fueron registradas siete especies, de las cuales tres son nuevos registros. Se seleccionó una colonia que se consideró más representativa, para realizar un intensivo estudio ecológico. Se realizaron conteos poblacionales, que arrojaron aproximadamente 64 000 Tadarida brasiliensis formando una colonia maternal en el ático de un antigüo edificio. Se hicieron registros de comportamiento (fechas de arribo y partida, patrones diarios de actividad, pariciones, etc.. Los adultos arrivan al refugio a mediados de septiembre y lo abandonan en febrero. Las pariciones ocurren entre mediados de noviembre y mediados de diciembre. Las crías se ubicaron en grupos compactos en áreas separadas de los adultos, siendo su densidad de 643 + 76 /m2 (p < 0.20. y la de los adultos de 161 + 21 /m2 (p < 0.20. 182 animales capturados fueron identificados, sexados y pesados. Los registros incluyeron patrones diarios de actividad.. Se detectó predación por "lechuza de campanario" (Tyto alba y gatos domésticos. La búsqueda de virus rábico resultó negativa. Se estimó el control ejercido sobre poblaciones de insectos que, para esta colonia puede ser de 209 a 385 kg por noche entre septiembre y febrero, demostrando el importante rol que desempeñan en el ecosistema urbano.

  8. Geographic and evolutionary patterns in the demography of scarine labrids, parrotfishes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choat, John Howard; Knudsen, Steen Wilhelm; Clements, Kendall

    2013-01-01

    . In this interval parrotfishes colonized the world's tropical reefs and today represent a numerically dominant assemblage of grazing fishes. Colonization occurred differentially resulting in distinctive taxonomic and functional assemblages in the tropical Atlantic vs the Indo-Pacific and in clearly partitioned...... that members of the Atlantic sparisomatinines manifest faster growth rates and generally shorter life spans than the scarinines of the Indo-Pacific, suggesting that for this group the demographic clocks are running faster in the Atlantic. Resolution of this issue requires taking phylogenetic influences, ocean...

  9. Demography and genome divergence of lake and stream populations of an East African cichlid fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egger, Bernd; Roesti, Marius; Böhne, Astrid; Roth, Olivia; Salzburger, Walter

    2017-10-01

    Disentangling the processes and mechanisms underlying adaptive diversification is facilitated by the comparative study of replicate population pairs that have diverged along a similar environmental gradient. Such a setting is realized in a cichlid fish from southern Lake Tanganyika, Astatotilapia burtoni, which occurs within the lake proper as well as in various affluent rivers. Previously, we demonstrated that independent lake and stream populations show similar adaptations to the two habitat regimes. However, little is known about the evolutionary and demographic history of the A. burtoni populations in question and the patterns of genome divergence among them. Here, we apply restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) to examine the evolutionary history, the population structure and genomic differentiation of lake and stream populations in A. burtoni. A phylogenetic reconstruction based on genome-wide molecular data largely resolved the evolutionary relationships among populations, allowing us to re-evaluate the independence of replicate lake-stream population clusters. Further, we detected a strong pattern of isolation by distance, with baseline genomic divergence increasing with geographic distance and decreasing with the level of gene flow between lake and stream populations. Genome divergence patterns were heterogeneous and inconsistent among lake-stream population clusters, which is explained by differences in divergence times, levels of gene flow and local selection regimes. In line with the latter, we only detected consistent outlier loci when the most divergent lake-stream population pair was excluded. Several of the thus identified candidate genes have inferred functions in immune and neuronal systems and show differences in gene expression between lake and stream populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Demography and genetic diversity of the Mexican black iguana Ctenosaura pectinata

    OpenAIRE

    Aguirre-Hlidalgo, Victor

    2008-01-01

    The hunting of the black iguana (Ctenosaura pectinata) in some regions of Mexico constitutes an acute problem because mature, gravid females arc killed and eaten just before they lay their eggs. This practice thus impacts both the survival of adults and the otherwise imminent recruitment of new individuals to the population. The objective of this project was to compare the demographic behaviour and the genetic variability of two population of the black iguana, one protected and...

  11. Social Demography of Transitional Dietary Patterns in Thailand: Prospective Evidence from the Thai Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keren Papier

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, a health-risk transition with changes in diet and lifestyle in low and middle-income countries (LMICs led to an emergence of chronic diseases. These trends in Southeast Asian LMICs are not well studied. Here, we report on transitional dietary patterns and their socio-demographic predictors in Thai adults. Dietary data in 2015 were from a random sub-sample (N = 1075 of 42,785 Thai Cohort Study (TCS members who completed all three TCS surveys (2005, 2009, 2013. Principle Component Analysis identified dietary patterns and multivariable linear regression assessed associations (Beta estimates (ß and confidence intervals (CIs between socio-demographic factors and dietary intake pattern scores. Four dietary patterns emerged: Healthy Transitional, Fatty Western, Highly Processed, and Traditional. In women, higher income (≥30,001 Baht/month vs. ≤10,000 and managerial work (vs. office assistant was associated with lower scores for Traditional (ß = −0.67, 95% CI −1.15, −0.19 and Fatty Western diets (ß = −0.60, 95% CI −1.14, −0.05, respectively. University education associated with lower Highly Processed (ß = −0.57, 95% CI −0.98, −0.17 and higher Traditional diet scores (ß = 0.42, 95% CI 0.03, 0.81. In men and women, urban residence associated with higher Fatty Western and lower Traditional diets. Local policy makers should promote healthy diets, particularly in urban residents, in men, and in low-SEP adults.

  12. Genetic diversity and population demography of the Chinese crocodile lizard (Shinisaurus crocodilurus in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huayuan Huang

    Full Text Available The Chinese crocodile lizard Shinisaurus crocodilurus is a critically endangered species, listed in Appendix II of CITES. Its populations and habitat in China have undergone significant changes in recent years. Understanding the genetic variability and phylogeography of this species is very important for successful conservation. In this study, samples were taken from 11 wild ponds and two captive populations in China. We sequenced mitochondrial CYTB, partial ND6, and partial tRNA-Glu and genotyped 10 microsatellite loci. Our analyses of these data showed low genetic variability, no strong isolation caused by distance, and a lack of a phylogeographic structure in this species. Based on our results, the basal divergence between two clades of S. crocodilurus in China may have been caused by the formation of the Pearl River system. We found a population expansion in one of these clades. Microsatellite analysis indicated the presence of three clusters, separated by significant genetic differences. We found that most individuals in the two captive populations were from the Luokeng (Guangdong and Guangxi wild source populations, respectively.

  13. Regional livestock grazing, human demography and fire incidence in the Portuguese landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipa Torres-Manso

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study:Wildfire incidence in Portugal is high in comparison with other Mediterranean Europe countries. Wildfire problems have been worsened by complex interactions between land use, livestock grazing and human population during the 20th century. In this study we try to understand these interactions and relationships.Area of study: Portugal country. Material and Methods: For the mainland Portuguese territory we present a statistical temporal analysis (1930-2001 based on the densities of livestock grazing and human inhabitants at the smallest administrative unit level, the parish. We compare these data with fire incidence descriptors (average area burned and average fire density between 1990 and 2007. Research highlights: We have identified clusters of parishes sharing common trends in the evolution of livestock and human inhabitant densities. A cause-effect relationship was not detected between livestock grazing density and fire incidence. However, the results point out clusters of parishes where conflicts between forest, fire and livestock grazing are important in the North, Centre and South regions of Portugal.Key Words: Livestock grazing; inhabitants; forest; fire; vegetation.

  14. Aboveground and belowground mammalian herbivores regulate the demography of deciduous woody species in conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan A. Endress; Bridgett J. Naylor; Burak K. Pekin; Michael J. Wisdom

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian herbivory can have profound impacts on plant population and community dynamics. However, our understanding of specific herbivore effects remains limited, even in regions with high densities of domestic and wild herbivores, such as the semiarid conifer forests of western North America. We conducted a seven-year manipulative experiment to evaluate the effects...

  15. Biogeography of species richness gradients : Linking adaptive traits, demography and diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Brotons, Lluis; Stefanescu, Constanti; Penuelas, Josep

    Here we review how adaptive traits contribute to the emergence and maintenance of species richness gradients through their influence on demographic and diversification processes. We start by reviewing how demographic dynamics change along species richness gradients. Empirical studies show that

  16. Health and demography in late 19th century Kimberley : a palaeopathological assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merwe, Alie Emily van der

    2010-01-01

    One-hundred-and-forty-five unmarked graves were accidentally uncovered outside the Gladstone cemetery in Kimberley, South Africa, in 2003. This study aimed to describe the archaeological findings, demographic composition and health of the unknown human remains excavated from the site. Fifteen graves

  17. Demography and growth: two forces leading to rising global income inequality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rougoor, W.; van Marrewijk, C.; Jiaotong, X.

    2014-01-01

    Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic

  18. Producing citizens, reproducing the "French race": immigration, demography, and pronatalism in early twentieth-century France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camiscioli, E

    2001-01-01

    This essay examines how, in the context of depopulation and mass immigration, members of the French pronatalist movement advanced a policy favouring immigrants from Italy, Spain, and Poland. Because the 'demographic crisis' created a shortage of citizens as well as workers, pronatalists held that foreign workers must also be assimilable, and able to produce French offspring. While the racial difference of colonial subjects was deemed immutable, pronatalists called for the immigration of white foreigners whose less 'modern' condition promoted fecundity, traditionalism, and gender dimorphism. Evidence is drawn from demographic studies, the press of France's largest pronatalist movement, and a pronatalist advisory committee created by the Ministry of Health in 1920.

  19. Non Price Interaction and Business Fluctuations in an Agent Based Model of Firms’ Demography

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto Leombruni

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents some artificial stylised facts emerging in a simulated contestable market where firms interact with each other in taking their stay or go decision. I use nearly zero-intelligence firms: no optimisation is considered, and all the firms sell at a fixed price an equal quantity of the good. The entry of new firms is triggered by the overall profitability of the market, measured by the spread between the average rate of profit and the interest rate. The exit decision is modelle...

  20. Mapping the Profit Motive: The Distinct Geography and Demography of For-Profit Charter Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, W. Brett

    2015-01-01

    For-profit charter schools represent a controversial new market-based education reform (Garcia, Barber, & Molnar, 2009; Conn, 2002). This essay explores how schools operated by for-profit corporations differ from those operated by non-profit organizations. Specifically, do for-profit charter schools locate in demographically distinct areas and…

  1. Taxonomic and Geographic Bias in Conservation Biology Research: A Systematic Review of Wildfowl Demography Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Beth E I; Harris, W Edwin; Hilton, Geoff M; Marsden, Stuart J

    2016-01-01

    Demographic data are important to wildlife managers to gauge population health, to allow populations to be utilised sustainably, and to inform conservation efforts. We analysed published demographic data on the world's wildfowl to examine taxonomic and geographic biases in study, and to identify gaps in knowledge. Wildfowl (order: Anseriformes) are a comparatively well studied bird group which includes 169 species of duck, goose and swan. In all, 1,586 wildfowl research papers published between 1911 and 2010 were found using Web of Knowledge (WoK) and Google Scholar. Over half of the research output involved just 15 species from seven genera. Research output was strongly biased towards 'high income' countries, common wildfowl species, and measures of productivity, rather than survival and movement patterns. There were significantly fewer demographic data for the world's 31 threatened wildfowl species than for non-threatened species. Since 1994, the volume of demographic work on threatened species has increased more than for non-threatened species, but still makes up only 2.7% of total research output. As an aid to research prioritisation, a metric was created to reflect demographic knowledge gaps for each species related to research output for the species, its threat status, and availability of potentially useful surrogate data from congeneric species. According to the metric, the 25 highest priority species include thirteen threatened taxa and nine species each from Asia and South America, and six from Africa.

  2. Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2009-11-01

    The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

  3. DEMOGRAPHY OF ALPINE SHORT-LIVED PLANTS, LONGEVITY AND ONTOGENY STAGE DURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Kazantseva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim - to evaluate lifespan (full cycle and ontogeny stage durations of nine alpine short-lived North- West Caucasus plants.Methods. For calculation we used a new method which was developed and suggested earlier by us. This method is based on a discrete ontogeny description and on the probability theory and random processes. The data on the monitoring of the marked individuals were collected during six years.Results. We found out that the lifespan of Anthyllis vulneraria is 2.6±0.3 years (hereinafter “±” is Standard error, Draba hispida – 4.5±0.3, Murbeckiella huetii – 4.6±1.1, Carum meifolium – 7.8±1.4, Eritrichium caucasicum – 9.1±1.4, Trifolium badium – 10.3±2.6, Sedum tenellum – 11±2.05, Androsace albana – 12.1±2.5, Minuartia recurva – 22.9±4.5. Also we demonstrated the matrix population models for studied plants, which show the probability of transition of individuals from one ontogeny stage to another in time interval (in our experiment – 1 year.Conclusion. Mortality of seedlings and juvenile plants, except Murbeckiella huetii, is around and more than 50%. Two years is the minimal amount of time that is necessary for full cycle of short-lived alpine plants, as it was shown for Anthyllis vulneraria, Murbeckiella huetii и Trifolium badium. A 3-12 years lifespan was calculated for other studied species. Persistence of Eritrichium caucasicum and Androsace albana populations provided by resistance of adult vegetative plants.

  4. Demography and natural history of the common fruit bat, Artibeus jamaicensis, on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Bats were marked and monitored on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to study seasonal and annual variation in distribution, abundance, and natural history from 1975 through 1980. Data gathered advances our knowledge about flocking; abundance; feeding strategies; social behavior; species richness; population structure and stability; age and sex ratios; life expectancy and longevity; nightly, seasonal, and annual movements; synchrony within and between species in reproductive activity; timing of reproductive cycles; survival and dispersal of recruits; intra-and inter-specific relationships; and day and night roost selection. Barro Colorado Island (BCI) harbors large populations of bats that feed on the fruit of canopy trees, especially figs. These trees are abundant, and the individual asynchrony of their fruiting rhythms results in a fairly uniform abundance of fruit. When figs are scarce, a variety of other fruits is available to replace them. This relatively dependable food supply attracts a remarkably rich guild of bats. Although we marked all bats caught, we tried to maximize the number of Artibeus jamaicensis netted, because it is abundant (2/3 of the total catch of bats on BCI), easily captured by conventional means (mist nets set at ground level), and responds well to handling and marking. An average Artibeus jamaicensis is a 45 g frugivore that eats roughly its weight in fruit every night. These bats prefer figs and often seek them out even when other types of fruit they might eat are far more abundant. They commute several hundred meters to feeding trees on the average, feeding on fruit from one to four trees each night, and returning to a single fruiting tree an average of four nights in succession. The bats tend to fly farther when fewer fig trees are bearing ripe fruit, and they feed from fewer trees, on the average, when the moon is nearly full. These bats, like their congeners, do not feed in the fruiting tree itself. Instead, they select a fruit and carry it to a feeding roost typically about 100 m away before eating it. We utilized radio telemetry to assess feeding rates from the number of ?feeding passes??transits between fruit tree and feeding roost. Bats are often netted while carrying fruit, revealing their diet. Feces also reveal dietary information. Adult female A. jamaicensis live in harems of three to 30 individuals with a single adult male. On BCI the harem groups roost during the day in hollow trees. There is presumably a large population of surplus males that roost together with nonadults of both sexes in foliage. Females commute an average of 600 m from their day roosts to feeding sites, and harem males travel less than 300 m. Twice a year most females give birth to a single young, once in March or April, and again in July or August; active gestation averages about 19 weeks. Juveniles are first netted when they are about ten weeks old, and females usually first bear young in March or April following their year of birth.

  5. Bayesian analysis of multi-state data with individual covariates for estimating genetic effects on demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Urbanek, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    Inbreeding depression is frequently a concern of managers interested in restoring endangered species. Decisions to reduce the potential for inbreeding depression by balancing genotypic contributions to reintroduced populations may exact a cost on long-term demographic performance of the population if those decisions result in reduced numbers of animals released and/or restriction of particularly successful genotypes (i.e., heritable traits of particular family lines). As part of an effort to restore a migratory flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) to eastern North America using the offspring of captive breeders, we obtained a unique dataset which includes post-release mark-recapture data, as well as the pedigree of each released individual. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multi-state model to analyze radio-telemetry, band-resight, and dead recovery data on reintroduced individuals, in order to track survival and breeding state transitions. We used studbook-based individual covariates to examine the comparative evidence for and degree of effects of inbreeding, genotype, and genotype quality on post-release survival of reintroduced individuals. We demonstrate implementation of the Bayesian multi-state model, which allows for the integration of imperfect detection, multiple data types, random effects, and individual- and time-dependent covariates. Our results provide only weak evidence for an effect of the quality of an individual's genotype in captivity on post-release survival as well as for an effect of inbreeding on post-release survival. We plan to integrate our results into a decision-analytic modeling framework that can explicitly examine tradeoffs between the effects of inbreeding and the effects of genotype and demographic stochasticity on population establishment.

  6. Demography of Oenocarpus bataua and implications for sustainable harvest of its fruit in western Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Isaza, Carolina; Matorrell, C; Cevallos, G

    2016-01-01

    Oenocarpus bataua is one of the most abundant and most used palm in the Amazon region. The main resource obtained from the species is the fruits that are harvested for human consumption. Across its distribution area adults are felled to obtain the racemes, which may affect the palm’s populations...... with an average of 11 adults ha-1 (variation 0–132 adults ha-1). The population finite growth rate (λ) in Amacayacu, Colombia, was 0.9103 because of slow growth and low survival of stemless individuals and low recruitment. On the contrary, in Yasuní we found a growing population with λ=1.0368. According to our...

  7. Bottom-up processes influence the demography and life-cycle phenology of Hawaiian bird communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jared D. Wolfe; C. John Ralph; Andrew Wiegardt

    2017-01-01

    Changes in climate can indirectly regulate populations at higher trophic levels by influencing the availability of food resources in the lower reaches of the food web. As such, species that rely on fruit and nectar food resources may be particularly sensitive to these bottom-up perturbations due to the strength of their trophic linkages with climatically-...

  8. High functional diversity in Mycobacterium tuberculosis driven by genetic drift and human demography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Hershberg

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Mycobacterium tuberculosis infects one third of the human world population and kills someone every 15 seconds. For more than a century, scientists and clinicians have been distinguishing between the human- and animal-adapted members of the M. tuberculosis complex (MTBC. However, all human-adapted strains of MTBC have traditionally been considered to be essentially identical. We surveyed sequence diversity within a global collection of strains belonging to MTBC using seven megabase pairs of DNA sequence data. We show that the members of MTBC affecting humans are more genetically diverse than generally assumed, and that this diversity can be linked to human demographic and migratory events. We further demonstrate that these organisms are under extremely reduced purifying selection and that, as a result of increased genetic drift, much of this genetic diversity is likely to have functional consequences. Our findings suggest that the current increases in human population, urbanization, and global travel, combined with the population genetic characteristics of M. tuberculosis described here, could contribute to the emergence and spread of drug-resistant tuberculosis.

  9. Large data analysis: automatic visual personal identification in a demography of 1.2 billion persons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daugman, John

    2014-05-01

    The largest biometric deployment in history is now underway in India, where the Government is enrolling the iris patterns (among other data) of all 1.2 billion citizens. The purpose of the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) is to ensure fair access to welfare benefits and entitlements, to reduce fraud, and enhance social inclusion. Only a minority of Indian citizens have bank accounts; only 4 percent possess passports; and less than half of all aid money reaches its intended recipients. A person who lacks any means of establishing their identity is excluded from entitlements and does not officially exist; thus the slogan of UIDAI is: To give the poor an identity." This ambitious program enrolls a million people every day, across 36,000 stations run by 83 agencies, with a 3-year completion target for the entire national population. The halfway point was recently passed with more than 600 million persons now enrolled. In order to detect and prevent duplicate identities, every iris pattern that is enrolled is first compared against all others enrolled so far; thus the daily workflow now requires 600 trillion (or 600 million-million) iris cross-comparisons. Avoiding identity collisions (False Matches) requires high biometric entropy, and achieving the tremendous match speed requires phase bit coding. Both of these requirements are being delivered operationally by wavelet methods developed by the author for encoding and comparing iris patterns, which will be the focus of this Large Data Award" presentation.

  10. Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models...

  11. Epilepsy in sub-Saharan Africa: its socio-demography, aetiology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To assess epileptics with regard to socio-demographic characteristics, aetiology, EEG results and classification. Design: A descriptive cohort study from 1997 to 2001. Setting: Parirenyatwa Group of Hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe. Subjects: A total of 229 consecutive epileptic subjects. Results: The mean (s.d.) ...

  12. A web platform for landuse, climate, demography, hydrology and beach erosion in the Black Sea catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Anthony; Guigoz, Yaniss; Ray, Nicolas; Mancosu, Emanuele; Abbaspour, Karim C; Rouholahnejad Freund, Elham; Allenbach, Karin; De Bono, Andrea; Fasel, Marc; Gago-Silva, Ana; Bär, Roger; Lacroix, Pierre; Giuliani, Gregory

    2017-07-04

    The Black Sea catchment (BSC) is facing important demographic, climatic and landuse changes that may increase pollution, vulnerability and scarcity of water resources, as well as beach erosion through sea level rise. Limited access to reliable time-series monitoring data from environmental, statistical, and socio-economical sources is a major barrier to policy development and decision-making. To address these issues, a web-based platform was developed to enable discovery and access to key environmental information for the region. This platform covers: landuse, climate, and demographic scenarios; hydrology and related water vulnerability and scarcity; as well as beach erosion. Each data set has been obtained with state-of-the-art modelling tools from available monitoring data using appropriate validation methods. These analyses were conducted using global and regional data sets. The data sets are intended for national to regional assessments, for instance for prioritizing environmental protection projects and investments. Together they form a unique set of information, which lay out future plausible change scenarios for the BSC, both for scientific and policy purposes.

  13. Impact of selection and demography on the diffusion of lactase persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbault, Pascale; Moret, Céline; Currat, Mathias; Sanchez-Mazas, Alicia

    2009-07-24

    The lactase enzyme allows lactose digestion in fresh milk. Its activity strongly decreases after the weaning phase in most humans, but persists at a high frequency in Europe and some nomadic populations. Two hypotheses are usually proposed to explain the particular distribution of the lactase persistence phenotype. The gene-culture coevolution hypothesis supposes a nutritional advantage of lactose digestion in pastoral populations. The calcium assimilation hypothesis suggests that carriers of the lactase persistence allele(s) (LCT*P) are favoured in high-latitude regions, where sunshine is insufficient to allow accurate vitamin-D synthesis. In this work, we test the validity of these two hypotheses on a large worldwide dataset of lactase persistence frequencies by using several complementary approaches. We first analyse the distribution of lactase persistence in various continents in relation to geographic variation, pastoralism levels, and the genetic patterns observed for other independent polymorphisms. Then we use computer simulations and a large database of archaeological dates for the introduction of domestication to explore the evolution of these frequencies in Europe according to different demographic scenarios and selection intensities. Our results show that gene-culture coevolution is a likely hypothesis in Africa as high LCT*P frequencies are preferentially found in pastoral populations. In Europe, we show that population history played an important role in the diffusion of lactase persistence over the continent. Moreover, selection pressure on lactase persistence has been very high in the North-western part of the continent, by contrast to the South-eastern part where genetic drift alone can explain the observed frequencies. This selection pressure increasing with latitude is highly compatible with the calcium assimilation hypothesis while the gene-culture coevolution hypothesis cannot be ruled out if a positively selected lactase gene was carried at the front of the expansion wave during the Neolithic transition in Europe.

  14. The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, John; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-01-01

    One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

  15. Comparative demography of the exotic Harmonia axyridis with other aphidophagous coccinellids reared on artificial diet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julianne Milléo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to compare biological aspects and life table parameters of the coccinellids Harmonia axyridis, Cycloneda sanguinea and Hippodamia convergens. Insects were fed eggs of Anagasta kuehniella, and reared at 24.5±1ºC, 70±10% relative humidity, with a 12 hour photophase. Hippodamia convergens took about 1.6 day to complete development, longer than H. axyridis, and 2.4 day longer than C. sanguinea. At immature stages, H. axyridis exhibited the highest survival percentage (49.2%, in comparison to the other coccinellids. For mean adult longevity, H. convergens was deficient, in comparison with the other species. Mean period of pre oviposition was the longest in C. sanguinea; the longest oviposition time occurred for H. axyridis; and the post oviposition period was similar between the coccinellids. Considering the reproductive parameters, H. axyridis showed the best performance in all aspects. For life table, the values of H. convergens were higher than, although close, to those of H. axyridis. Nevertheless, the high net reproductive rate of H. axyridis showed this species potential to increase population size. The biological characteristics of the exotic H. axyridis favors its invasion and establishment in Brazil, corroborating results noticed in other countries.

  16. Comparing functional diversity in traits and demography of Central European vegetation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Herben, Tomáš; Nováková, Z.; Klimešová, Jitka

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 5 (2013), s. 910-920 ISSN 1100-9233 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA526/09/0963 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : botanical garden * plant functional traits * funtional diversity Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.372, year: 2013

  17. Changes in college demography and employment : new challenges for career counselors

    OpenAIRE

    Loureiro, Nazaré; Pinto, Joana Carneiro; Taveira, Maria do Céu

    2009-01-01

    According to official data (GPEARI, 2008), the major proportion of unemployed graduates in Portugal, are female (70.9%) and live in the depressed north region of the country (41.3%). The same report shows an increase of 54% in the attendance of college courses, over the last ten years. This is especially true, for master and PhD courses and for women. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the effects of two forms of a Personal Career Management Seminar (PCMS, forms A and B; Taveira...

  18. Linking larval history to juvenile demography in the bicolor damselfish Stegastes partitus (Perciformes:Pomacentridae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S Nemeth

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Otolith-based reconstructions of daily larval growth increments were used to examine the effect of variation in larval growth on size and age at settlement and post-settlement growth,survival and habitat preferences of juvenile bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus Poey.During August 1992 and 1994,newly settled S. partitus were collected from Montastraea coral heads and Porites rubble piles in Tague Bay,St.Croix,U.S. Virgin Islands (17 °45 ’ N,64 °42 ’ W.Daily lapillar otolith increments from each fish were counted and measured with Optimas image analysis software.S.partitus pelagic larval duration was 23.7 d in 1992 (n =70and 24.6 d in 1994 (n =38and larval age at settlement averaged 13.0 mm total length both years.Analysis of daily otolith increments demonstrated that variation in larval growth rates and size and age at settlement had no detectable effect on post-settlement survivorship but that larger larvae showed a preference for Montastraea coral at settlement.Late larval and early juvenile growth rates showed a significant positive relationship indicating that growth patterns established during the planktonic stage can span metamorphosis and continue into the benthic juvenile phase.Larval growth rates during the first two weeks post-hatching also had a strong effect on age to developmental competence (ability to undergo metamorphosisin both 1992 and 1994 with the fastest growing larvae being 8 d younger and 0.8 mm smaller at settlement than the slowest growing larvae.These differential growth rates in early stage larvae established trajectories toward larval developmental competence and may prove important in biogeographical studies of larval dispersal.Reconstruyendo aumentos diarios de otolitos se compará la variación en crecimiento larval sobre el tamaño y la edad de asentamiento,y el crecimiento post-acentamiento, sobrevivencia y preferencia de hábitat,del pez damisela bicolor (Stegastes partitus Poeyjoven.En agosto de 1992 y 1994 se recolectó S.partitus recientemente asentados en colonias de Montastraea y en escombros de Porites en Tague Bay,St.Croix,Islas Vírgenes Estadounidenses (17 °45 ’ N,64 °42 ’ W.A cada pez se le midió el aumento diario en el otolito con el programa de análisis de imágenes Optimas .El estadío de larva pelágica de S.partitus duró 23.7 d en 1992 (n =70y 24.6 d en 1994 (n =38y,al asentarse,el largo total promedio en ambos años fue de 13.0 mm.Los otolitos indican que las variaciones en las tasas de crecimiento,tamaño y edad de asentamiento no tienen un efecto detectable en la sobrevivencia post-asentamiento.Sin embargo,las larvas más grandes mostraron preferencia por asentarse en el coral Montastraea .Las tasas de crecimiento larval tardío y juvenil temprano tuvieron una correlación positiva significativa:los patrones de crecimiento establecidos durante el estadío planctónico pasan la metamorfosis y continúan en la fase juvenil béntica.La tasa de crecimiento larval durante las primeras dos semanas después de eclosionar también tiene un efecto sobre la edad a la que concluyeron su desarrollo (momento de la metamorfosisen 1992 y 1994.Las larvas de crecimiento rápido fueron 8 d más jóvenes y 0.8 mm más pequeñas al asentarse.Este crecimiento diferencial en el estadío larval temprano establece diferencias en la duración del desarrollo larval y puede ser importante en estudios biogeográficos sobre dispersión de larvas.

  19. Applications of the Galton-Watson process to human DNA evolution and demography

    CERN Document Server

    Neves, A G M

    2005-01-01

    We show that the problem of existence of a mitochondrial Eve can be understood as an application of the Galton--Watson process and presents interesting analogies with critical phenomena in Statistical Mechanics. In the approximation of small survival probability, and assuming limited progeny, we are able to find for a genealogic tree the maximum and minimum survival probabilities over all probability distributions for the number of children per woman constrained to a given mean. As a consequence, we can relate existence of a mitochondrial Eve to quantitative demographic data of early mankind. In particular, we show that a mitochondrial Eve may exist even in an exponentially growing population, provided that the mean number of children per woman $\\overline N$ is constrained to a small range depending on the probability $p$ that a child is a female. Assuming that the value $p \\approx 0.488$ valid nowadays has remained fixed for thousands of generations, the range where a mitochondrial Eve occurs with sizeable p...

  20. Effects of the light environment and stand history on beargrass (Xerophyllum tenax) morphology and demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    David H. Peter; Timothy B. Harrington; Mark Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Beargrass (Xerophyllum tenax [Pursh] Nutt.) is an herbaceous, evergreen perennial found in higher elevations of the northern Rocky, Sierra Nevada, Klamath, Siskiyou, Cascade and Olympic Mountains and in coastal areas from Washington to northern California. It is used by Native Americans for basketry and is an important floral green, but the...

  1. Impact of selection and demography on the diffusion of lactase persistence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascale Gerbault

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The lactase enzyme allows lactose digestion in fresh milk. Its activity strongly decreases after the weaning phase in most humans, but persists at a high frequency in Europe and some nomadic populations. Two hypotheses are usually proposed to explain the particular distribution of the lactase persistence phenotype. The gene-culture coevolution hypothesis supposes a nutritional advantage of lactose digestion in pastoral populations. The calcium assimilation hypothesis suggests that carriers of the lactase persistence allele(s (LCT*P are favoured in high-latitude regions, where sunshine is insufficient to allow accurate vitamin-D synthesis. In this work, we test the validity of these two hypotheses on a large worldwide dataset of lactase persistence frequencies by using several complementary approaches. METHODOLOGY: We first analyse the distribution of lactase persistence in various continents in relation to geographic variation, pastoralism levels, and the genetic patterns observed for other independent polymorphisms. Then we use computer simulations and a large database of archaeological dates for the introduction of domestication to explore the evolution of these frequencies in Europe according to different demographic scenarios and selection intensities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that gene-culture coevolution is a likely hypothesis in Africa as high LCT*P frequencies are preferentially found in pastoral populations. In Europe, we show that population history played an important role in the diffusion of lactase persistence over the continent. Moreover, selection pressure on lactase persistence has been very high in the North-western part of the continent, by contrast to the South-eastern part where genetic drift alone can explain the observed frequencies. This selection pressure increasing with latitude is highly compatible with the calcium assimilation hypothesis while the gene-culture coevolution hypothesis cannot be ruled out if a positively selected lactase gene was carried at the front of the expansion wave during the Neolithic transition in Europe.

  2. Demography and viability of the largest population of greater one-horned rhinoceros in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naresh Subedi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Megaherbivores are characterized by slow life history traits which when coupled with human exploitation makes them vulnerable to local extinctions. An understanding of key demographic parameters assists in guiding management interventions to ensure their recovery and persistence over the longer term. We monitored 110 (30 calves, 80 young and adults individually known greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis for seven years in Chitwan National Park, Nepal (2009–15. Using known fate model with staggered entry design in program MARK we estimated annual calf survival at 0.765 ± 0.026 SE and that of remaining older age groups between 0.96 and 0.985. Both genders exhibited a typical Type I survivorship curve. The population consisted of 62% adults, 13% sub-adults and 26% juveniles and calves (dependent animals. The adult sex ratio (female: male was 1.23 ± 0.09 SE and dependent: cow ratio was 0.636 ± 0.03 SE. Age at first calving was 7.91 years ± 0.31 SE. Shorter inter-calving intervals were observed for young adults compared to old adults. Overall inter-calving interval was 41.28 months ± 2.33 SE. Chitwan rhino population grew at a maximum realized rate of r = 0.051 ± 0.005 SE. PHVA results showed that low level continuous poaching increased extinction probability compared to high but intermittent poaching episodes. An increase in annual poaching of over six females and 12 males over the current average of 5.5 rhinos per year, coupled with habitat degradation, caused by the alien invasive Mikania micrantha resulted in high extinction risks. Annually upto 13 rhinos (8 males and 5 females from Chitwan can be used for reintroduction and supplementation of rhinoceros across their current and historic range.

  3. Spatial pattern analysis and demography of two tropical trees in the Brazilian Caatinga

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maira Fontes Manzan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Aspidosperma pyrifolium (Apocynaceae and Caesalpinia pyramidalis (Fabaceae share the same habitat in the Brazilian Caatinga domain. In this paper, we investigate the intra and inter-species interactions between these two plants using spatial pattern analysis among cohorts. The results showed that the adult trees of each species present higher densities at distances shorter than 9 m to 12 m. However, due to seed dispersal via autochory, we expected a more aggregate density for C. pyramidalis than A. pyrifolium as the later disperses seeds through anemochory. Difference in spatial aggregation among cohorts was not observed and therefore the results contradict the expectations of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. It is likely that this is associated with anthropogenic factors in the past such as fire, animal husbandry and logging. Using a bivariate analysis of the neighborhood density, we also confirmed the significant coexistence between the two species. This coexistence could be explained by the process of positive interspecific interactions, such as facilitation, which is common in semi-arid regions under stressful conditions.

  4. Linking tree demography to climate change feedbacks: fire, larch forests, and carbon pools of the Siberian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, H. D.; Loranty, M. M.; Natali, S.; Pena, H., III; Ludwig, S.; Spektor, V.; Davydov, S. P.; Zimov, N.; Mack, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Fire severity is increasing in larch forests of the Siberian Arctic as climate warms, and initial fire impacts on tree demographic processes could be an especially important determinant of long-term forest structure and carbon (C) dynamics. We hypothesized that (1) larch forest regrowth post-fire is largely determined by residual soil organic layer (SOL) depth because of the SOL's role as a seedbed and thermal regulator, and (2) changes in post-fire larch recruitment impact C accumulation through stand density impacts on understory microclimate and permafrost thaw. We tested these hypotheses by (1) experimentally creating a soil burn severity gradient in a Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) forest near Cherskiy, Russia and (2) quantifying C pools across a stand density gradient within a 75-year old fire scar. From 2012-2015, we added larch seeds to plots burned at different severities and monitored recruitment along with permafrost and active layer (i.e., subject to annual freeze-thaw) conditions (SOL depth, temperature, moisture, and thaw depth). Across the density gradient, we inventoried larch trees and harvested ground-layer vegetation to estimate aboveground contribution to C pools. We quantified woody debris C pools and sampled belowground C pools (soil, fine roots, and coarse roots) in the organic + upper (0-10 cm) mineral soil. Larch recruits were rare in unburned and low severity plots, but a total of 6 new germinants m-2 were tallied in moderate and high severity plots during the study. Seedling survival for > 1 year was only 40 and 25% on moderate and high severity treatments, respectively, but yielded net larch recruitment of 2 seedlings m-2, compared to 0.3 seedlings m-2 on low severity plots. Density of both total and established recruits increased with decreasing residual SOL depth, which correlated with increased soil temperature, moisture, and thaw depth. At 75-year post-fire, total C pools increased with increased larch density, largely due to increased tree aboveground C pools and decreased ground-layer vegetation C pools, which corresponded to higher canopy cover, cooler soils, and shallower active layer depths. Our findings highlight the potential for a climate-driven increase in fire severity to alter tree recruitment, successional dynamics, and C cycling in Siberian larch forests.

  5. Linking anti-predator behaviour to prey demography reveals limited risk effects of an actively hunting large carnivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Arthur D; Kauffman, Matthew J; McWhirter, Douglas E; Jimenez, Michael D; Cook, Rachel C; Cook, John G; Albeke, Shannon E; Sawyer, Hall; White, P J

    2013-08-01

    Ecological theory predicts that the diffuse risk cues generated by wide-ranging, active predators should induce prey behavioural responses but not major, population- or community-level consequences. We evaluated the non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of an active predator, the grey wolf (Canis lupus), by simultaneously tracking wolves and the behaviour, body fat, and pregnancy of elk (Cervus elaphus), their primary prey in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. When wolves approached within 1 km, elk increased their rates of movement, displacement and vigilance. Even in high-risk areas, however, these encounters occurred only once every 9 days. Ultimately, despite 20-fold variation in the frequency of encounters between wolves and individual elk, the risk of predation was not associated with elk body fat or pregnancy. Our findings suggest that the ecological consequences of actively hunting large carnivores, such as the wolf, are more likely transmitted by consumptive effects on prey survival than NCEs on prey behaviour. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  6. Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Arthur D; Morrison, Thomas A; Fortin, Jennifer K; Robbins, Charles T; Proffitt, Kelly M; White, P J; McWhirter, Douglas E; Koel, Todd M; Brimeyer, Douglas G; Fairbanks, W Sue; Kauffman, Matthew J

    2013-07-07

    The loss of aquatic subsidies such as spawning salmonids is known to threaten a number of terrestrial predators, but the effects on alternative prey species are poorly understood. At the heart of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, an invasion of lake trout has driven a dramatic decline of native cutthroat trout that migrate up the shallow tributaries of Yellowstone Lake to spawn each spring. We explore whether this decline has amplified the effect of a generalist consumer, the grizzly bear, on populations of migratory elk that summer inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Recent studies of bear diets and elk populations indicate that the decline in cutthroat trout has contributed to increased predation by grizzly bears on the calves of migratory elk. Additionally, a demographic model that incorporates the increase in predation suggests that the magnitude of this diet shift has been sufficient to reduce elk calf recruitment (4-16%) and population growth (2-11%). The disruption of this aquatic-terrestrial linkage could permanently alter native species interactions in YNP. Although many recent ecological changes in YNP have been attributed to the recovery of large carnivores--particularly wolves--our work highlights a growing role of human impacts on the foraging behaviour of grizzly bears.

  7. Effects of region, demography, and protection from fishing on batch fecundity of common coral trout ( Plectropomus leopardus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Alex B.; Davies, Campbell R.; Mapstone, Bruce D.; Russ, Garry R.; Tobin, Andrew J.; Williams, Ashley J.

    2014-09-01

    Batch fecundity of female Plectropomus leopardus, a coral reef fish targeted by commercial and recreational fishing, was compared between reefs open to fishing and reefs within no-take marine reserves within three regions of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Length, weight, and age had positive effects on batch fecundity of spawners from northern and central reefs but negligible effects on spawners from southern reefs. Females were least fecund for a given length, weight, and age in the southern GBR. Batch fecundity of a 500-mm fork length female was 430 % greater on central reefs and 207 % greater on northern reefs than on southern reefs. The effects of length and age on batch fecundity did not differ significantly between reserve and fished reefs in any region, but weight-specific fecundity was 100 % greater for large 2.0 kg females on reserve reefs compared with fished reefs in the central GBR. We hypothesize that regional variation in batch fecundity is likely driven by water temperature and prey availability. Significant regional variation in batch fecundity highlights the need for understanding spatial variation in reproductive output where single conservation or fishery management strategies cover large, potentially diverse, spatial scales.

  8. The attractions of medicine: the generic motivations of medical school applicants in relation to demography, personality and achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, I C; Livingston, G; Katona, Cornelius

    2006-02-21

    The motivational and other factors used by medical students in making their career choices for specific medical specialities have been looked at in a number of studies in the literature. There are however few studies that assess the generic factors which make medicine itself of interest to medical students and to potential medical students. This study describes a novel questionnaire that assesses the interests and attractions of different aspects of medical practice in a varied range of medical scenarios, and relates them to demographic, academic, personality and learning style measures in a large group of individuals considering applying to medical school. A questionnaire study was conducted among those attending Medlink, a two-day conference for individuals considering applying to medical school for a career in medicine. The main outcome measure was the Medical Situations Questionnaire, in which individuals ranked the attraction of three different aspects of medical practise in each of nine detailed, realistic medical scenarios in a wide range of medical specialities. As well as requiring clear choices, the questionnaire was also designed so that all of the possible answers were attractive and positive, thereby helping to eliminate social demand characteristics. Factor analysis of the responses found four generic motivational dimensions, which we labelled Indispensability, Helping People, Respect and Science. Background factors assessed included sex, ethnicity, class, medical parents, GCSE academic achievement, the 'Big Five' personality factors, empathy, learning styles, and a social desirability scale. 2867 individuals, broadly representative of applicants to medical schools, completed the questionnaire. The four generic motivational factors correlated with a range of background factors. These correlations were explored by multiple regression, and by path analysis, using LISREL to assess direct and indirect effects upon the factors. Helping People was particularly related to agreeableness; Indispensability to a strategic approach to learning; Respect to a surface approach to learning; and Science to openness to experience. Sex had many indirect influences upon generic motivations. Ethnic origin also had indirect influences via neuroticism and surface learning, and social class only had indirect influences via lower academic achievement. Coming from a medical family had no influence upon generic motivations. Generic motivations for medicine as a career can be assessed using the Medical Situations Questionnaire, without undue response bias due to demand characteristics. The validity of the motivational factors is suggested by the meaningful and interpretable correlations with background factors such as demographics, personality, and learning styles. Further development of the questionnaire is needed if it is to be used at an individual level, either for counselling or for student selection.

  9. Demography of the California spotted owl in the Sierra National Forest and Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    George N. Steger; Thomas E. Munton; Kenneth D. Johnson; Gary P. Eberlein

    2002-01-01

    Nine years (1990–1998) of demographic data on California spotted owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) in two study areas on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada—one in the Sierra National Forest (SNF), the other in Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks (SNP)—are summarized. Numbers of territorial owls fluctuated from 85 to 50 in SNF and 80 to 58...

  10. Ettevõtluse demograafia Eesti piirkondades aastal 2005 = Business demography in the regions of Estonia in 2005 / Svetlana Shutova

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Shutova, Svetlana

    2007-01-01

    Ettevõtluse demograafia jälgib majanduslikult aktiivsete üksuste kogumi suuruse ja koosseisu muutusi, analüüsides, kui palju tekib igal aastal uusi ettevõtteid (ettevõtte sünd) ja kui palju lõpetab tegevuse (ettevõtte surm). Ettevõtluse demograafia annab ka pildi, kui palju luuakse ja kaotatakse töökohti ettevõtete sündide ja surmade arvelt. Lisatud tabelid ja diagrammid

  11. Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Arthur D.; Morrison, Thomas A.; Fortin, Jennifer K.; Robbins, Charles T.; Proffitt, Kelly M.; White, P.J.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; Koel, Todd M.; Brimeyer, Douglas G.; Fairbanks, W. Sue; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2013-01-01

    The loss of aquatic subsidies such as spawning salmonids is known to threaten a number of terrestrial predators, but the effects on alternative prey species are poorly understood. At the heart of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, an invasion of lake trout has driven a dramatic decline of native cutthroat trout that migrate up the shallow tributaries of Yellowstone Lake to spawn each spring. We explore whether this decline has amplified the effect of a generalist consumer, the grizzly bear, on populations of migratory elk that summer inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Recent studies of bear diets and elk populations indicate that the decline in cutthroat trout has contributed to increased predation by grizzly bears on the calves of migratory elk. Additionally, a demographic model that incorporates the increase in predation suggests that the magnitude of this diet shift has been sufficient to reduce elk calf recruitment (4–16%) and population growth (2–11%). The disruption of this aquatic–terrestrial linkage could permanently alter native species interactions in YNP. Although many recent ecological changes in YNP have been attributed to the recovery of large carnivores—particularly wolves—our work highlights a growing role of human impacts on the foraging behaviour of grizzly bears.

  12. Prevalent Long-Term Trends of Hypertension in Austria: The Impact of Obesity and Socio-Demography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Großschädl

    Full Text Available Globally there are only less long-term-studies on hypertension available to provide reliable estimates and identify risk groups. This study aims to analyse the prevalence and long-term-trend of hypertension in Austria, recognize affected subpopulations and investigate social inequalities.This representative population-based study is based on self-reported data of adults (mean age: 47.7 ± 17.5; n = 178,818 that were taken from five health surveys between 1973 and 2007. An adjustment of self-reported BMI was performed based on a preliminary validation study. Absolute changes (AC and aetiologic fractions (AF were calculated from logistic regressions in order to measure trends. To quantify the extent of social inequality, a relative index of inequality (RII was computed.During the study period the age-standardized hypertension prevalence increased from 1.0% to 18.8%, with a considerable rise from 1991 onwards. There was a positive trend in all subpopulations, with the highest AC among obese women (+50.2% and obese subjects aged 75 years and older (+54.4%, whereas the highest risk was observed among the youngest obese adults (AF: 99.4%. The RII for hypertension was higher for women than men, but in general unstable during the investigation period.Obesity and older age are significant factors for increased morbidity of hypertension. The most undesirable trends occurred in obese women and obese subjects aged 75 years and older. These risk groups should be given special attention when planning hypertension prevention programs. The high increase in the prevalence of hypertension is due to different aspects, e.g. a demographic change and a change in the definition of hypertension. These findings help to understand why hypertension is becoming more common in the Austrian population.

  13. Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  14. AFSC/NMML/CCEP: Harbor seal demography in Washington; capture, tagging, branding data from 1981 to 2007

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Mammal Laboratories' California Current Ecosystem Program (AFSC/NOAA) in collaboration with Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife captured...

  15. Phosphorus flux due to Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in an oligotrophic upland stream: effects of management and demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith H. Nislow; John D. Armstrong; Simon. McKelvey

    2004-01-01

    Little is known concerning the role of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the transport of nutrients to and from river systems. We used demographic data from the River Bran, an oligotrophic river in Scotland, UK, to construct a budget for the transport of phosphorus (P) and applied it to investigate the effects of management strategies and demographic...

  16. A comparison of habitat use and demography of red squirrels at the southern edge of their range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine M. Leonard; John L. Koprowski

    2009-01-01

    Populations at the edge of their geographic range may demonstrate different population dynamics from central populations. Endangered Mt. Graham red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis), endemic to southeastern Arizona, represent the southernmost red squirrel population and are found at lower densities than conspecifics in the center of the...

  17. Inferring the distribution and demography of an invasive species from sighting data: the red fox incursion into Tasmania.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Caley

    Full Text Available A recent study has inferred that the red fox (Vulpes vulpes is now widespread in Tasmania as of 2010, based on the extraction of fox DNA from predator scats. Heuristically, this inference appears at first glance to be at odds with the lack of recent confirmed discoveries of either road-killed foxes--the last of which occurred in 2006, or hunter killed foxes--the most recent in 2001. This paper demonstrates a method to codify this heuristic analysis and produce inferences consistent with assumptions and data. It does this by formalising the analysis in a transparent and repeatable manner to make inference on the past, present and future distribution of an invasive species. It utilizes Approximate Bayesian Computation to make inferences. Importantly, the method is able to inform management of invasive species within realistic time frames, and can be applied widely. We illustrate the technique using the Tasmanian fox data. Based on the pattern of carcass discoveries of foxes in Tasmania, we infer that the population of foxes in Tasmania is most likely extinct, or restricted in distribution and demographically weak as of 2013. It is possible, though unlikely, that that population is widespread and/or demographically robust. This inference is largely at odds with the inference from the predator scat survey data. Our results suggest the chances of successfully eradicating the introduced red fox population in Tasmania may be significantly higher than previously thought.

  18. Inferring the distribution and demography of an invasive species from sighting data: the red fox incursion into Tasmania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caley, Peter; Ramsey, David S L; Barry, Simon C

    2015-01-01

    A recent study has inferred that the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is now widespread in Tasmania as of 2010, based on the extraction of fox DNA from predator scats. Heuristically, this inference appears at first glance to be at odds with the lack of recent confirmed discoveries of either road-killed foxes--the last of which occurred in 2006, or hunter killed foxes--the most recent in 2001. This paper demonstrates a method to codify this heuristic analysis and produce inferences consistent with assumptions and data. It does this by formalising the analysis in a transparent and repeatable manner to make inference on the past, present and future distribution of an invasive species. It utilizes Approximate Bayesian Computation to make inferences. Importantly, the method is able to inform management of invasive species within realistic time frames, and can be applied widely. We illustrate the technique using the Tasmanian fox data. Based on the pattern of carcass discoveries of foxes in Tasmania, we infer that the population of foxes in Tasmania is most likely extinct, or restricted in distribution and demographically weak as of 2013. It is possible, though unlikely, that that population is widespread and/or demographically robust. This inference is largely at odds with the inference from the predator scat survey data. Our results suggest the chances of successfully eradicating the introduced red fox population in Tasmania may be significantly higher than previously thought.

  19. [Demography and donation frequencies of blood and plasma donor populations in Germany. Update 2010 and 5-year comparison].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, S; Hamouda, O; Offergeld, R

    2012-08-01

    The Robert Koch Institute collects and evaluates nationwide data on the incidence and prevalence of transfusion-relevant infections among blood and plasma donors in Germany. Since 2006 data not only on the number of donations tested but also on the number of the respective donors have become available. The demographic profile and donation frequencies of German whole blood, plasma and platelet donors in 2010 and the percentages among the general population are described and compared to data from 2006. Although the general population eligible to donate blood is on the decline since 2003, with a loss of 2% between 2006 and 2010, this has not led to a decrease in the number of blood donors and donations. Instead, the number of new and repeat whole blood donors increased by 8% and 7%, respectively. At the same time, the number of new plasma donors grew by 23%, that of repeat plasma donors by 41%. In 2010 more than 4.3% of the population aged 18-68 years was active as repeat whole blood donors; 0.4% repeatedly donated plasma or platelets. Since 2006 the percentage of donors among the general population increased significantly, especially among the youngest age group (18-24 years). Donation frequency varied depending on donor age and sex, with an average of 1.9 per year for whole blood donations, 12.5 for plasmapheresis and 5.0 for plateletpheresis. While the donation frequency for whole blood remained unchanged since 2006, the frequency of apheresis donations increased, especially among older donors. By recruiting more new donors and retaining and reactivating existing ones more effectively, the number of whole blood and apheresis donations was augmented.

  20. Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Luo

    Full Text Available For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors, based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88 and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85, demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

  1. Disease, predation and demography: Assessing the impacts of bovine tuberculosis on African buffalo by monitoring at individual and population levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, P.C.; Heisey, D.M.; Bowers, J.A.; Hay, C.T.; Wolhuter, J.; Buss, P.; Hofmeyr, M.; Michel, A.L.; Bengis, Roy G.; Bird, T.L.F.; du Toit, Johan T.; Getz, W.M.

    2009-01-01

    1. Understanding the effects of disease is critical to determining appropriate management responses, but estimating those effects in wildlife species is challenging. We used bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo Syncerus caffer population of Kruger National Park, South Africa, as a case study to highlight the issues associated with estimating chronic disease effects in a long-lived host. 2. We used known and radiocollared buffalo, aerial census data, and a natural gradient in pathogen prevalence to investigate if: (i) at the individual level, BTB infection reduces reproduction; (ii) BTB infection increases vulnerability to predation; and (iii) at the population level, increased BTB prevalence causes reduced population growth. 3. There was only a marginal reduction in calving success associated with BTB infection, as indexed by the probability of sighting a known adult female with or without a calf (P = 0??065). 4. Since 1991, BTB prevalence increased from 27 to 45% in the southern region and from 4 to 28% in the central region of Kruger National Park. The prevalence in the northern regions was only 1??5% in 1998. Buffalo population growth rates, however, were neither statistically different among regions nor declining over time. 5. Lions Panthera leo did not appear to preferentially kill test-positive buffalo. The best (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) AICc model with BTB as a covariate [exp(??) = 0??49; 95% CI = (0??24-1??02)] suggested that the mortality hazard for positive individuals was no greater than for test-negative individuals. 6. Synthesis and applications. Test accuracy, time-varying disease status, and movement among populations are some of the issues that make the detection of chronic disease impacts challenging. For these reasons, the demographic impacts of bovine tuberculosis in the Kruger National Park remain undetectable despite 6 years of study on known individuals and 40 years of population counts. However, the rainfall and forage conditions during this study were relatively good and the impacts of many chronic diseases may be a non-linear function of environmental conditions such that they are only detectable in stressful periods. ?? 2008 British Ecological Society.

  2. Demography and clinical course of ulcerative colitis in a multiracial Asian population: a nationwide study from Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmi, I; Singh, R; Ganesananthan, S; Yatim, I; Radzi, M; Chua, A B S; Tan, H J; Huang, S; Chin, K S; Menon, J; Goh, K L

    2009-02-01

    To establish the clinical course of ulcerative colitis (UC) in the Malaysian population, comparing the three major ethnic groups: Malay, Chinese and Indian. Patients who were diagnosed with UC from seven major medical referral centers in Malaysia were recruited. Their baseline characteristics, and the extent of the disease, its clinical course and complications were recorded. A total of 118 patients was included. The extent of disease was as follows: proctitis alone in 22 (18.6%), sigmoid colon in 23 (19.5%), descending colon in 16 (13.6%), transverse colon in 11 (9.3%), ascending colon and pancolitis 46 (39%). Most patients had chronic intermittent disease. Extra-intestinal complications were seen in 27 (22.9%) patients and fulminant colitis was seen in four (3.4%). None developed colorectal cancer. The overall cumulative colectomy rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 3.4% (CI: 0.9-8.5), 5.9% (CI: 1.9-13.2) and 15.6% (CI: 6.5-29.4), respectively. There was a higher prevalence of extra-intestinal manifestations and a trend towards more extensive disease among Indian patients. However, no significant differences were seen in the age of onset, the severity of disease (fulminant colitis, refractory disease) and the colectomy rate. As in developed countries, most of our patients have a remitting and relapsing pattern of disease but the clinical course appears to be milder, with lower rates of colectomies. There are differences in clinical presentation among the three major ethnic groups, with Indians having a higher prevalence of extra-intestinal manifestations and a trend towards more extensive disease.

  3. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M Ferreira

    Full Text Available The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008 and white rhinos (2010 together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487 was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956. The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564 overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183. Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  4. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Sam M; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A; Knight, Mike H; Smit, Izak P J; Pienaar, Danie

    2015-01-01

    The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  5. Exposure to air pollutants and mortality in hypertensive patients according to demography: a 10 year case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Tam, Wilson W S; Wang, Harry H X; Lao, X Q; Zhang, Daisy Dexing; Chan, Sky W M; Kwan, Mandy W M; Fan, Carmen K M; Cheung, Clement S K; Tong, Ellen L H; Cheung, N T; Tse, L A; Yu, Ignatius T S

    2014-09-01

    This study evaluated whether short term exposures to NO2, O3, particulate matter <10 mm in diameter (PM10) were associated with higher risk of mortality. A total of 223,287 hypertensive patients attended public health-care services and newly prescribed at least 1 antihypertensive agent were followed-up for up to 5 years. A time-stratified, bi-directional case-crossover design was adopted. For all-cause mortality, significant positive associations were observed for NO2 and PM10 at lag 0-3 days per 10 μg/m(3) increase in concentration (excess risks 1.187%-2.501%). Significant positive associations were found for O3 at lag 1 and 2 days and the excess risks were 1.654% and 1.207%, respectively. We found similarly positive associations between these pollutants and respiratory disease mortality. These results were significant among those aged ≥65 years and in cold seasons only. Older hypertensive patients are susceptible to all-cause and respiratory disease-specific deaths from these air pollutants in cold weather. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Of travertine and time: otolith chemistry and microstructure detect provenance and demography of endangered humpback chub in Grand Canyon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limburg, Karin E.; Hayden, Todd A.; Pine, William E.; Yard, Michael D.; Kozdon, Reinhard; Valley, John W.

    2013-01-01

    We developed a geochemical atlas of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon and in its tributary, the Little Colorado River, and used it to identify provenance and habitat use by Federally Endangered humpback chub, Gila cypha. Carbon stable isotope ratios (δ13C) discriminate best between the two rivers, but fine scale analysis in otoliths requires rare, expensive instrumentation. We therefore correlated other tracers (SrSr, Ba, and Se in ratio to Ca) to δ13C that are easier to quantify in otoliths with other microchemical techniques. Although the Little Colorado River’s water chemistry varies with major storm events, at base flow or near base flow (conditions occurring 84% of the time in our study) its chemistry differs sufficiently from the mainstem to discriminate one from the other. Additionally, when fish egress from the natal Little Colorado River to the mainstem, they encounter cold water which causes the otolith daily growth increments to decrease in size markedly. Combining otolith growth increment analysis and microchemistry permitted estimation of size and age at first egress; size at first birthday was also estimated. Emigrants < 1 year old averaged 51.2 ± 4.4 (SE) days and 35.5 ± 3.6 mm at egress; older fish that had recruited to the population averaged 100 ± 7.8 days old and 51.0 ± 2.2 mm at egress, suggesting that larger, older emigrants recruit better. Back-calculated size at age 1 was unimodal and large (78.2 ± 3.3 mm) in Little Colorado caught fish but was bimodally distributed in Colorado mainstem caught fish (49.9 ± 3.6 and 79 ± 4.9 mm) suggesting that humpback chub can also rear in the mainstem. The study demonstrates the coupled usage of the two rivers by this fish and highlights the need to consider both rivers when making management decisions for humpback chub recovery.

  7. Landscape of Research on Older Adults' Health in the Arab Region: Is It Demography-Driven or Development-Dependent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibai, Abla Mehio; Rizk, Anthony; Costanian, Christy; Beard, John Roland

    2017-07-01

    To describe the quantity, methods, themes, and collaboration profiles of research on older adults' health in the Arab world, and map research productivity against demographic, economic, and development indicators. A scoping review of research on older adults' health drawing from 7 databases and covering the period 1994-2013. Aging research output has increased 6-fold over the study period, with middle-income countries showing the sharpest rise. The majority of the reviewed publications are descriptive in nature, oriented toward examining the extent of disease or factors associated with various morbidity and mortality outcomes (88.5%). Despite the increasing regional instability, there is a dearth of studies on "seniors in emergencies." Collaboration with international coauthors (16.0%) has been more frequent than with regional coauthors (4.2%). Correlation analysis suggests that research production has been more strongly influenced by literacy rates than by population aging indicators, Gross Domestic Product, or government investment in research and development. This study lays the basis for a "roadmap" for research on older adults' health in the Arab region. It calls for cooperation among various stakeholders to produce a targeted and well-informed research agenda that is more responsive to emerging and context-specific needs of older adults in the region. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Demography of a man-made human catastrophe: The case of massive famine in Ukraine 1932-1933

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omelian Rudnytskyi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of 1932–34 famine direct losses (excess deaths by age and sex and indirect losses (lost births are calculated, for the first time, for rural and urban areas of Ukraine. Total losses are estimated at 4.5 million, with 3.9 million excess deaths and 0.6 million lost births. Rural and urban excess deaths are equivalent to 16.5 and 4.0 per cent of respective 1933 populations. We show that urban and rural losses are the result of very different dynamics, as reflected in the respective urban and rural age structures of relative excess deaths.

  9. The attractions of medicine: the generic motivations of medical school applicants in relation to demography, personality and achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katona Cornelius

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The motivational and other factors used by medical students in making their career choices for specific medical specialities have been looked at in a number of studies in the literature. There are however few studies that assess the generic factors which make medicine itself of interest to medical students and to potential medical students. This study describes a novel questionnaire that assesses the interests and attractions of different aspects of medical practice in a varied range of medical scenarios, and relates them to demographic, academic, personality and learning style measures in a large group of individuals considering applying to medical school. Methods A questionnaire study was conducted among those attending Medlink, a two-day conference for individuals considering applying to medical school for a career in medicine. The main outcome measure was the Medical Situations Questionnaire, in which individuals ranked the attraction of three different aspects of medical practise in each of nine detailed, realistic medical scenarios in a wide range of medical specialities. As well as requiring clear choices, the questionnaire was also designed so that all of the possible answers were attractive and positive, thereby helping to eliminate social demand characteristics. Factor analysis of the responses found four generic motivational dimensions, which we labelled Indispensability, Helping People, Respect and Science. Background factors assessed included sex, ethnicity, class, medical parents, GCSE academic achievement, the 'Big Five' personality factors, empathy, learning styles, and a social desirability scale. Results 2867 individuals, broadly representative of applicants to medical schools, completed the questionnaire. The four generic motivational factors correlated with a range of background factors. These correlations were explored by multiple regression, and by path analysis, using LISREL to assess direct and indirect effects upon the factors. Helping People was particularly related to agreeableness; Indispensability to a strategic approach to learning; Respect to a surface approach to learning; and Science to openness to experience. Sex had many indirect influences upon generic motivations. Ethnic origin also had indirect influences via neuroticism and surface learning, and social class only had indirect influences via lower academic achievement. Coming from a medical family had no influence upon generic motivations. Conclusion Generic motivations for medicine as a career can be assessed using the Medical Situations Questionnaire, without undue response bias due to demand characteristics. The validity of the motivational factors is suggested by the meaningful and interpretable correlations with background factors such as demographics, personality, and learning styles. Further development of the questionnaire is needed if it is to be used at an individual level, either for counselling or for student selection.

  10. Ecology and Demography of Free-Roaming Domestic Dogs in Rural Villages near Serengeti National Park in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czupryna, Anna M; Brown, Joel S; Bigambo, Machunde A; Whelan, Christopher J; Mehta, Supriya D; Santymire, Rachel M; Lankester, Felix J; Faust, Lisa J

    2016-01-01

    Free-roaming dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) are of public health and conservation concern because of their potential to transmit diseases, such as rabies, to both people and wildlife. Understanding domestic dog population dynamics and how they could potentially be impacted by interventions, such as rabies vaccination, is vital for such disease control efforts. For four years, we measured demographic data on 2,649 free-roaming domestic dogs in four rural villages in Tanzania: two villages with and two without a rabies vaccination campaign. We examined the effects of body condition, sex, age and village on survivorship and reproduction. Furthermore, we compared sources of mortality among villages. We found that adult dogs (>12mos) had higher survival than puppies in all villages. We observed a male-biased sex ratio across all age classes. Overall survival in one non-vaccination village was lower than in the other three villages, all of which had similar survival probabilities. In all villages, dogs in poor body condition had lower survival than dogs in ideal body condition. Sickness and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) predation were the two main causes of dog death. Within vaccination villages, vaccinated dogs had higher survivorship than unvaccinated dogs. Dog population growth, however, was similar in all the villages suggesting village characteristics and ownership practices likely have a greater impact on overall dog population dynamics than vaccination. Free-roaming domestic dogs in rural communities exist in the context of their human owners as well as the surrounding wildlife. Our results did not reveal a clear effect of vaccination programs on domestic dog population dynamics. An investigation of the role of dogs and their care within these communities could provide additional insight for planning and implementing rabies control measures such as mass dog vaccination.

  11. Demography of a common butterfly on humid grasslands: Argynnis aglaja (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) studied by mark-recapture

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zimmermann, Kamil; Konvička, Martin; Fric, Zdeněk; Čihaková, V.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 4 (2009), s. 715-727 ISSN 1505-2249 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073; GA ČR GD206/08/H044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : butterfly ecology * conservation * grasslands Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.384, year: 2009

  12. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Porčić

    Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

  13. Demography of some non-native isopods (Crustacea, Isopoda, Oniscidea in a Mid-Atlantic forest, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth Hornung

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduced species dominate the terrestrial isopod fauna in most inland habitats of North America, including urban landscapes. These non-native species are often very abundant and thus potentially play a significant role in detritus processing. We monitored isopod assemblages in an urban forest for a year to examine the relationship between surface activity and abiotic environmental factors, and to analyze reproductive characteristics that might contribute to their successful establishment. Using pitfall trap samples we recorded five species, two of which, Trachelipus rathkii and Cylisticus convexus, were highly abundant. We determined size, sex and reproductive state of each individual. Surface activity of both species reflected variability in abiotic stress factors for isopods, such as soil moisture and soil temperature. Early spring the main trigger was soil temperature while later in the season increasing temperature and decreasing soil moisture jointly affected population dynamics. Activity significantly correlated with soil moisture. The temporal pattern of sex ratios supported the secondary sex ratio hypothesis. Males dominated the samples on the onset of the mating season in search of females. The pattern was reversed as females searched for suitable microsites for their offspring. Size independent fecundity decreased as conditions became more stressful late in the season.

  14. Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wei; Nguyen, Thin; Nichols, Melanie; Tran, Truyen; Rana, Santu; Gupta, Sunil; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha; Allender, Steve

    2015-01-01

    For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

  15. Initial study of wild horse and burro demography: determination of pregnancy and lactation rates in various herds. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfe, M.L.; Ellis, L.C.

    1982-01-01

    Blood serum concentrations of reproductive hormones were used to estimate pregnancy rates in 558 wild and free-roaming horses (Equus caballus) from Nevada, Oregon, and Wyoming; and 165 burros from California. Levels of progesterone, pregnant mares' serum gonadotropin (PMSG), and estradiol 17B were determined by radioimmunoassay procedures. Based on comparison with the results of pregnancy diagnosis from rectal palpations (n =124), the following endocrine concentrations were established as criteria sufficient to indicate pregnancy: progesterone, 0.05 ng/ml; and/or PMSG, 3.0 mg/ml; and/or estradiol, 300 pg/ml. Estimated accuracy of pregnancy diagnoses from endocrine criteria was 80 to 85 percent. The mean incidence of pregnancy among mares sampled from Nevada, Oregon, and Wyoming was 58.4 percent, 69.2 percent, and 85.3 percent respectively

  16. Relationship Marketing: Association of Demography, Ethical Ideologies and Personalisation with Customer Value and Relationship Duration in Travel & Leisure Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Chew, Jennie Lay Peng

    2010-01-01

    Casino industry relationship management has created interest among the Asia region especially with the opening of the two Integrated Resorts (IR) – Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands in year 2010 after the success of Macau – The Asia Las Vegas. Underlying the threat to Genting Malaysia, this study is aim to analysis the relationship marketing theoretically and empirically on customer value and commitment of Genting patronage since the opening of the two IR. The dynamicity of relati...

  17. Mechanisms of radiation in a bat group from the genus Pipistrellus inferred by phylogeography, demography and population genetics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hulva, P.; Fornůsková, Alena; Chudárková, A.; Evin, A.; Allegrini, B.; Benda, P.; Bryja, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 24 (2010), s. 5417-5431 ISSN 0962-1083 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : hybrid speciation * introgression * Mediterranean * microsatellites * mitochondrial DNA * phylogeography * bats * radiation Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 6.457, year: 2010

  18. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jón Einar Jónsson

    Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment.

  19. UK Renal Registry 11th Annual Report (December 2008): Chapter 13 Demography of the UK paediatric renal replacement therapy population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Malcolm A; Shaw, Joanne; Sinha, Manish; Adalat, Shazia; Hussain, Farida; Inward, Carol

    2009-01-01

    To describe the demographics of the paediatric RRT population in the UK and analyse changes in demographics with time. Extraction and analysis of data from the UK paediatric Renal Registry. The UK paediatric established renal failure (ERF) population in April 2008 was 875 patients. The prevalence under the age of 16 years was 55 per million age related population (pmp) and the incidence 7.92 pmp. The incidence and prevalence for South Asian and Other ethnic groups were 3 times that of the White and Black populations. Renal dysplasia was the most common cause of ERF accounting for 33% of prevalent cases. Diseases with autosomal recessive inheritance were more common in patients from ethnic minority groups. The spectrum of diseases seen has changed over a generation. Overall 5 year survival for children with ERF was 91.8%. Five year survival of infants starting dialysis was just 62%. Transplanted patients accounted for 74% of the current population. The proportion with grafts from living donors has steadily risen to 34%. Children from ethnic minority groups were less likely to have an allograft and living donation was less frequent in this population. For those on dialysis, 57% were receiving peritoneal dialysis. This was the main treatment modality for patients under 4 years of age. The paediatric ERF population continued to expand slowly. Incidence and prevalence rates were stable and similar to other developed nations. The high incidence in patients from ethnic minority groups will lead to a greater proportion of the population being from these groups in time. To maintain the high proportion of engrafted patients it will be necessary to encourage living donation in the ethnic minority population. The spectrum of diseases seen has already changed over a generation with the treatment of young children with diseases such as congenital nephrosis. The incidence of cystinosis causing ERF was reduced, probably reflecting better early treatment. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Profile of graduates of Israeli medical schools in 1981--2000: educational background, demography and evaluation of medical education programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitterman, Noemi; Shalev, Ilana

    2005-05-01

    In light of changes in the medical profession, the different requirements placed on physicians and the evolving needs of the healthcare system, the need arose to examine the medical education curriculum in Israel. This survey, conducted by the Samuel Neaman Institute for Science and Technology, summarizes 20 years of medical education in Israel's four medical schools, as the first stage in mapping the existing state of medical education in Israel and providing a basis for decision-making on future medical education programs. To characterize the academic background of graduates, evaluate their attitudes towards current and alternative medical education programs, and examine subgroups among graduates according to gender, medical school, high school education, etc. The survey included graduates from all four Israeli medical schools who graduated between the years 1981 and 2000 in a sample of 1:3. A questionnaire and stamped return envelope were sent to every third graduate; the questionnaire included open and quantitative questions graded on a scale of 1 to 5. The data were processed for the entire graduate population and further analyzed according to subgroups such as medical schools, gender, high school education, etc. The response rate was 41.3%. The survey provided a demographic profile of graduates over a 20 year period, their previous educational and academic background, additional academic degrees achieved, satisfaction, and suggestions for future medical education programs. The profile of the medical graduates in Israel is mostly homogenous in terms of demographics, with small differences among the four medical schools. In line with recommendations of the graduates, and as an expression of the changing requirements in the healthcare system and the medical profession, the medical schools should consider alternative medical education programs such as a bachelor's degree in life sciences followed by MD studies, or education programs that combine medicine with disciplines such as law, engineering, computer science, among others.

  1. Executive Management Team Demography and Minority Student Retention: Does Executive Team Diversity Influence the Retention of Minority Students?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fincher, Mark; Katsinas, Stephen; Bush, V. Barbara

    2010-01-01

    Many colleges and universities are expected to produce more graduates while responding to an increasing level of racial and ethnic diversity among students. While the importance of diversity within executive management leadership teams may be accepted among nonprofit higher education institutions, the connection between diversity among the…

  2. Phylogeography and historical demography of the Lusitanian snail Elona quimperiana reveal survival in unexpected separate glacial refugia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bellido Alain

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Present day distributions of Palearctic taxa in northern latitudes mainly result from populations having survived in local patches during the Late Pleistocene and/or from recolonizing populations from southern temperate refugia. If well-studied Mediterranean and eastern European refugia are widely accepted, some recent biogeographical assumptions still remain unclear, such as the occurrence of multiple glacial refugia in Iberia and cryptic refugia in northern Europe during the last glaciations. The Lusitanian snail Elona quimperiana has a remarkably disjunct distribution, limited to northwestern France (Brittany, northwestern Spain and the Basque Country. By describing the phylogeographical structure of this species across its entire range, the present study attempts to identify refugia and subsequent recolonization routes. Results Results based on 16S and COI gene sequences showed that the low genetic diversity observed in the Brittany populations should be associated with a recent demographic expansion. By contrast, populations from Spain exhibit several differentiated lineages and are characterized by demographic equilibrium, while the Basque populations are the only ones harboring typical distinct haplotypes. The center of the star-like networks of both gene sequences is occupied by a common ancestral-like haplotype found in Brittany and Spain, which might have originated from the middle of Northern Spain (i.e. Asturias, eastern Lugo and western Cantabria. Estimates of the divergence time between the Spain-Brittany and Basque lineages strongly suggest that E. quimperiana survived the Pleistocene glaciations in distinct refugia on the Iberian Peninsula, one of which is situated in Picos de Europa, and the other in the Basque Country. The occurrence of a northern refugium in France cannot be rejected as of yet. Conclusion Present results confirm the Iberian origin of the land snail E. quimperiana and strongly support the emerging phylogeographic hypothesis of multiple refugia in Iberia during the last glaciations. The scenario of a spatial expansion of E. quimperiana from an Iberian refuge located in Asturias to northern areas provides the most probable explanation for the present distribution of this land snail. By harboring distinct haplotypes, the Basque Country populations appear to be of great importance in terms of potential adaptation, long term persistence and hence, the conservation of E. quimperiana.

  3. Demography and dispersal ability of a threatened saproxylic beetle: A mark-recapture study of the rosalia longicorn (Rosalia alpina)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Drag, Lukáš; Hauck, David; Pokluda, Pavel; Zimmermann, Kamil; Čížek, Lukáš

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 6 (2011), e21345 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Grant - others:Ministerstvo životního prostředí(CZ) VaV/SP/2d3/153/08 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : Rosalia alpina Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.092, year: 2011

  4. Population demography of alpine butterflies: Boloria pales and Boloria napaea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and their specific adaptations to high mountain environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehl, Stefan; Ebertshäuser, Marlene; Gros, Patrick; Schmitt, Thomas

    2017-11-01

    High mountain ecosystems are extreme habitats, and adaptation strategies to this ecosystem are still poorly understood in most groups. To unravel such strategies, we performed a MRR study in the Hohe Tauern National Park (Salzburg, Austria) with two nymphalid butterfly species, Boloria pales and B. napaea. We analysed their population structure over one flight period by studying the development of population size and wing wear. B. pales had more individuals and a higher survival probability than B. napaea; the sensitivity to extreme weather conditions or other external influences was higher in B. napaea. We only observed proterandry in B. pales. Imagines of both species survived under snow for at least some days. Additionally, we observed a kind of risk-spreading, in that individuals of both species, and especially B. pales, have regularly emerged throughout the flight period. This emergence pattern divided the population's age structure into three phases: an initial phase with decreasing wing quality (emergence > mortality), followed by an equilibrium phase with mostly constant average wing condition (emergence = mortality) and a final ageing phase with strongly deteriorating wing condition (mortality » emergence). Consequently, neither species would likely become extinct because of particularly unsuitable weather conditions during a single flight period. The observed differences between the two species suggest a better regional adaptation of B. pales, which is restricted to high mountain systems of Europe. In contrast, the arctic-alpine B. napaea might be best adapted to conditions in the Arctic and not the more southern high mountain systems. However, this needs to be examined during future research in the Arctic.

  5. Race, deprivation, and immigrant isolation: The spatial demography of air-toxic clusters in the continental United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liévanos, Raoul S

    2015-11-01

    This article contributes to environmental inequality outcomes research on the spatial and demographic factors associated with cumulative air-toxic health risks at multiple geographic scales across the United States. It employs a rigorous spatial cluster analysis of census tract-level 2005 estimated lifetime cancer risk (LCR) of ambient air-toxic emissions from stationary (e.g., facility) and mobile (e.g., vehicular) sources to locate spatial clusters of air-toxic LCR risk in the continental United States. It then tests intersectional environmental inequality hypotheses on the predictors of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters with tract-level principal component factor measures of economic deprivation by race and immigrant status. Logistic regression analyses show that net of controls, isolated Latino immigrant-economic deprivation is the strongest positive demographic predictor of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters, followed by black-economic deprivation and isolated Asian/Pacific Islander immigrant-economic deprivation. Findings suggest scholarly and practical implications for future research, advocacy, and policy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Short-term spatial variation in the demography of a common Neotropical liana is influenced by environmental factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franci, Luciana De Campos; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2016-01-01

    We used matrix models to investigate the relation between population dynamics of the liana Mansoa difficilis and environmental factors in frag- mented Atlantic forest in Brazil. The fate (growth and mortality) of individuals and the number of new individuals were recorded for 3 years in 100 plots...... of light availability on k was less important than tree community structure, which allowed high population growth rates only in a small part of the forest. These findings support the notion that tree community characteristics are the key to understand and predict the observed recent increase in the density...

  7. Machine-learning techniques for family demography: an application of random forests to the analysis of divorce determinants in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Arpino, Bruno; Le Moglie, Marco; Mencarini, Letizia

    2018-01-01

    Demographers often analyze the determinants of life-course events with parametric regression-type approaches. Here, we present a class of nonparametric approaches, broadly defined as machine learning (ML) techniques, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of a popular type known as random forest. We argue that random forests can be useful either as a substitute, or a complement, to more standard parametric regression modeling. Our discussion of random forests is intuitive and...

  8. Demography, breeding success and effects of nest type in artificial colonies of Red-footed Falcons and allies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotymán László

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Shortage of breeding sites is an important limiting factor of bird populations. Artificial breeding platforms, nest-boxes or man-made twig nests often present solutions with remarkable results, however long-term sustainability of these populations remains to be resolved. Furthermore, the question whether the inference of results of studies conducted on birds breeding in artificial breeding sites can be generalized to other populations, still remains open. Here we present the history, and the results of a 20 year old (1995-2015 nest-box programme initiated to increase potential breeding possibilities of Red-footed Falcons in an area, where nest-site shortage was a severe limiting factor. We show how various other species (Jackdaws, Kestrels and Long-eared Owls have utilized these resources, and present descriptive statistics on their reproductive performance. Analysing the data of a total of 1432 breeding attempts, we show that Red-footed Falcons have similar clutch sizes, and nesting success (i.e. ratio of nests with at least on fledgling, however fledging success (ratio of the number of eggs/fledged nestlings was different in artificial nest-boxes. When we excluded closed box types from artificial nests, this difference was not apparent. In case of Kestrels (n=1626 breeding attempts clutch size was significantly higher in artificial nests, while we found no difference in fledging or nesting success. When only comparing open boxes to natural nests, the difference in clutch size was no longer significant. We also analysed the effect of nest box design on reproductive parameters of the two species using regression trees. Inter annual effects were the most important in shaping clutch size and fledging rate of both falcon species, however we also found nest-box design effects, but only in Red-footed Falcons. In years when mean clutch size was high, these birds had lower clutch size in an older, darker nest-box type compared to an alternative design, and to open boxes. However, fledging rate in the same years was lower for both open boxes and older nest-boxes. We conclude that artificial colonies are an important and successful tool in Red-footed Falcon conservation, and that the breeding parameters measured in artificial colonies depend on nest-box design. We present correlative evidence that closed boxes have a significant positive species specific effect on reproduction, probably due to their protection against weather. We also show that birds may have a preference for a certain nest-box design, and that the breeding success in the less favoured box type may be similar to that in open nests. We recommend that future studies incorporate nest-type and nest-box design effects in all comparisons made on reproductive performance in case of Red-footed Falcons and Kestrels.

  9. Inbreeding in Southeastern Spain : The Impact of Geography and Demography on Marital Mobility and Marital Distance Patterns (1900-1969).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón, R; Hernández, C L; García-Varela, G; Masciarelli, D; Cuesta, P

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, the structure of a southeastern Spanish population was studied for the first time with respect to its inbreeding patterns and its relationship with demographic and geographic factors. Data on consanguineous marriages (up to second cousins) from 1900 to 1969 were taken from ecclesiastic dispensations. Our results confirm that the patterns and trends of inbreeding in the study area are consistent with those previously observed in most non-Cantabrian Spanish populations. The rate of consanguineous marriages was apparently stable between 1900 and 1935 and then sharply decreased since 1940, which coincides with industrialization in Spain. A marked departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectations (0.25) in the ratio of first cousin (M22) to second cousin (M33) marriages in the study population (0.88) was observed. The high levels of endogamy (>80%) and its significant steadiness throughout the twentieth century is noteworthy. Accordingly, our results show that exogamous marriages were not only poorly represented but also that this reduced mobility (relationships between population size and consanguinity rates and inbreeding fit power-law distributions. A significant positive correlation was observed between inbreeding and elevation. Many Spanish populations have experienced a prolonged and considerable isolation across generations, which has led to high proportions of historical and local endogamy that is associated, in general, with high [Formula: see text] values. Thus, assessing genomic inbreeding using runs of homozygosity (ROH) in current Spanish populations could be an additional pertinent strategy for obtaining a more refined perspective regarding the population history inferred from the extent and frequency of ROH regions.

  10. Demography and mobility of three common understory butterfly species from tropical rain forest of Papua New Guinea

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vlašánek, Petr; Novotný, Vojtěch

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 2 (2015), s. 445-455 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-04258S; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11008 Grant - others:National Science Foundation(US) DEB 0841885; GA JU(CZ) 121/2010/P; GA JU(CZ) 136/2010/P; European Social Fund(CZ) CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0064 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Jolly-Seber * Lepidoptera * mark-release-recapture Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.698, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10144-015-0480-7

  11. Tracking the decline of the once-common butterfly: delayed oviposition, demography and population genetics in the hermit Chazara briseis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kadlec, T.; Vrba, P.; Kepka, P.; Schmitt, T.; Konvička, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 2 (2010), s. 172-183 ISSN 1367-9430 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Grant - others:GA MŽP(CZ) VaV/620/1/03; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/05/H012 Program:GD Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : allozyme electrophoresis * Lepidoptera * mark-recapture Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.906, year: 2010

  12. Rationale, design, methods and baseline demography of participants of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial. ASCOT investigators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sever, P S; Dahlöf, B; Poulter, N R

    2001-01-01

    To test the primary hypothesis that a newer antihypertensive treatment regimen (calcium channel blocker +/- an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor) is more effective than an older regimen (beta-blocker +/- a diuretic) in the primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). To test a second...

  13. Multidecadal trends in the nesting phenology of Pacific and Atlantic leatherback turtles are associated with population demography

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Nathan J.; Valentine, Sara E.; Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of the mechanisms influencing phenology can provide insights into the adaptability of species to climate change. Here, we investigated the factors influencing multidecadal trends in the nesting phenology of the leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, in the eastern Pacific Ocean and at Sandy Point, US Virgin Islands, in the western Atlantic Ocean. Between 1993 and 2013, the median nesting date (MND) at Playa Grande occurred later, at a rate of ~0.3 d yr-...

  14. The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Catherine; Forsman, Eric D.; Franklin, Alan B.; Davis, Raymond J.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Doherty, Paul F.; Bailey, Larissa; Clark, Darren A.; Ackers, Steven H.; Andrews, Lawrence S.; Augustine, Benjamin; Biswell, Brian L.; Blakesley, Jennifer; Carlson, Peter C.; Clement, Matthew J.; Diller, Lowell V.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Green, Adam; Gremel, Scott A.; Herter, Dale R.; Higley, J. Mark; Hobson, Jeremy; Horn, Rob B.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; McCafferty, Christopher; McDonald, Trent; McDonnell, Kevin; Olson, Gail S.; Reid, Janice A.; Rockweit, Jeremy; Ruiz, Viviana; Saenz, Jessica; Sovern, Stan G.

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls (Strix varia). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λRJS) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.

  15. Sea-level change and demography during the last glacial termination and early Holocene across the Australian continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Sapienza, Tom; Lewis, Stephen; Turney, Chris S. M.

    2018-02-01

    Future changes in sea-level are projected to have significant environmental and social impacts, but we have limited understanding of comparable rates of change in the past. Using comprehensive palaeoenvironmental and archaeological datasets, we report the first quantitative model of the timing, spatial extent and pace of sea-level change in the Sahul region between 35-8 ka, and explore its effects on hunter-gatherer populations. Results show that the continental landmass (excluding New Guinea) increased to 9.80 million km2 during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), before a reduction of 2.12 million km2 (or ∼21.6%) to the early Holocene (8 ka). Almost 90% of this inundation occurs during and immediately following Meltwater Pulse (MWP) 1a between 14.6 and 8 ka. The location of coastlines changed on average by 139 km between the LGM and early Holocene, with some areas >300 km, and at a rate of up to 23.7 m per year (∼0.6 km land lost every 25-year generation). Spatially, inundation was highly variable, with greatest impacts across the northern half of Australia, while large parts of the east, south and west coastal margins were relatively unaffected. Hunter-gatherer populations remained low throughout (hypothesis that late Pleistocene coastal populations were low, with use of coastal resources embedded in broad-ranging foraging strategies, and which would have been severely disrupted in some regions and at some time periods by sea-level change outpacing tolerances of mangals and other near-shore ecological communities.

  16. The effects of pastoralism and protection on lion behaviour, demography and space use in the Mara Region of Kenya

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, Niels L.; Oguto, Joseph O.; Dabelsteen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    Contraction of their historic geographic ranges and conflicts with humans underpins declines in large carnivore populations worldwide. These declines, which characterize pastoral systems where carnivores, people and livestock live in close contact, may be paralleled by changes in carnivore...... the three prides except when the ranch lions were severely disturbed and became more nocturnal and inactive. The reserve lions ate their kills on open plains and returned to them often but the ranch lions did so only inside bushes and abandoned unfinished kills during a drought in 2005. The reserve lions...

  17. Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N L

    2016-01-01

    Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees ("N fixers") are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds-a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers' rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers' successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers' successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role.

  18. Spatial and temporal patterning of bank vole demography and the epidemiology of the Puumala hantavirus in northeastern France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augot, D; Sauvage, F; Boue, F; Bouloy, M; Artois, M; Demerson, J M; Combes, B; Coudrier, D; Zeller, H; Cliquet, F; Pontier, D

    2008-12-01

    Epidemiological data from bank voles, Myodes glareolus, naturally infected by the hantavirus Puumala (PUUV) were collected by a capture-mark-recapture protocol from 2000 to 2002 in the French department of Ardennes. Four monitored trapping sites were established in two forests located in two cantons (Flize and Monthermé). We captured 912 bank voles corresponding to 557 different individuals during 8820 trapping nights for an overall trapping success of 10.34%. The average PUUV seroprevalence was 22.4%. Characteristics of the system reported in North European countries are confirmed in France. PUUV seroprevalence and abundance of rodents appeared weakly linked. Adult voles were more frequently antibody-positive, but no difference between sexes was established. Anti-PUUV seropositive voles were captured and high seroprevalence was observed from both forests, without human infection reported in Flize canton during the study. One site among the four exhibited peculiar infection dynamics, where vole weight and infection risk were negatively correlated.

  19. Comprehensive Analysis of Pan-African Mitochondrial DNA Variation Provides New Insights into Continental Variation and Demography

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cerezo, M.; Gusmão, L.; Černý, Viktor; Uddin, N.; Syndercombe-Court, D.; Gómez-Carballa, A.; Göbel, T.; Schneider, P. M.; Salas, A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 3 (2016), s. 133-143 ISSN 1673-8527 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-37998S Institutional support: RVO:67985912 Keywords : mtDNA * haplotype * haplogroup * SNP * MALDI-TOF Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology Impact factor: 4.051, year: 2016

  20. Public health challenges for the 21st century: Convergence of demography, economics, environment and biology: Nalanda distinguished lecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, K M Venkat

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly changing and interdependent world under the mega-force of globalization presents unique challenges and opportunities for public health. Focusing on the example of type 2 diabetes, I argue that an appreciation for the evolution of demographic and economic contexts is essential to appropriately address today's dynamic and complex health challenges. For the vast majority of the past 2000 years, India and China were the world's largest economies until the rise of western European nations in the 18th century and later the USA. In the case of India, inflation-adjusted per capita income remained flat between 1700 and 1950, while in the same period that of the UK grew more than 7-fold, although the population of the UK relatively grew 3-times faster than that of India in the same period. This 250-year gap in industrial and economic development may be central to understanding the large burden of diabetes among individuals of Indian descent, and should be taken into account in a wider context to understand the divergence in health development between India and parts of the world which benefited from early industrial progress and accompanying improvements in food supply, hygiene and living conditions. Lessons from high-income countries support a strong emphasis on public health to achieve important populationwide health gains, and offer insights into the broader determinants of health such as economic and food security, equity, urban infrastructure, health-promoting environments, and access to high-quality health systems. Critical to contemporary public health is also strong data systems and evidence-based decision-making.

  1. Loco or no loco? Holocene climatic fluctuations, human demography and community base management of coastal resources in northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Calogero M.; Gayo, Eugenia M.; Carter, Chris; Standen, Vivien G.; Castro, Victoria; Valenzuela, Daniela; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Marquet, Pablo A.; Latorre, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    The abundance of the southern Pacific mollusk loco (Concholepas concholepas), among other conspicuous marine supplies, are often cited as critical resources behind the long-term cultural and demographic fluctuations of prehistoric hunter-gatherers at the coastal Atacama Desert. These societies inhabited one of the world’s most productive marine environments flanked by one the world’s driest deserts. Both of these environments have witnessed significant ecological variation since people first colonized them at the end of the Pleistocene (c. 13,000 cal yr BP). Here, we examine the relationship between the relative abundance of shellfish (a staple resource) along a 9,500-year sequence of archaeological shell midden accumulations at Caleta (a small inlet or cove) Vitor, with past demographic trends (established via summed probability distributions of radiocarbon ages) and technological innovations together with paleoceanographic data on past primary productivity. We find that shellfish extraction varied considerably from one cultural period to the next in terms of the number of species and their abundance, with diversity increasing during periods of regionally decreased productivity. Such shifts in consumption patterns are considered community based management decisions, and for the most part they were synchronous with large and unusual regional demographic fluctuations experienced by prehistoric coastal societies in northern Chile. When taken together with their technological innovations, our data illustrates how these human groups tailored their socio-cultural patterns to what were often abrupt and prolonged environmental changes throughout the Holocene.

  2. Human Social Behavior and Demography Drive Patterns of Fine-Scale Dengue Transmission in Endemic Areas of Colombia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harish Padmanabha

    Full Text Available Dengue is known to transmit between humans and A. aegypti mosquitoes living in neighboring houses. Although transmission is thought to be highly heterogeneous in both space and time, little is known about the patterns and drivers of transmission in groups of houses in endemic settings. We carried out surveys of PCR positivity in children residing in 2-block patches of highly endemic cities of Colombia. We found high levels of heterogeneity in PCR positivity, varying from less than 30% in 8 of the 10 patches to 56 and 96%, with the latter patch containing 22 children simultaneously PCR positive (PCR22 for DEN2. We then used an agent-based model to assess the likely eco-epidemiological context of this observation. Our model, simulating daily dengue dynamics over a 20 year period in a single two block patch, suggests that the observed heterogeneity most likely derived from variation in the density of susceptible people. Two aspects of human adaptive behavior were critical to determining this density: external social relationships favoring viral introduction (by susceptible residents or infectious visitors and immigration of households from non-endemic areas. External social relationships generating frequent viral introduction constituted a particularly strong constraint on susceptible densities, thereby limiting the potential for explosive outbreaks and dampening the impact of heightened vectorial capacity. Dengue transmission can be highly explosive locally, even in neighborhoods with significant immunity in the human population. Variation among neighborhoods in the density of local social networks and rural-to-urban migration is likely to produce significant fine-scale heterogeneity in dengue dynamics, constraining or amplifying the impacts of changes in mosquito populations and cross immunity between serotypes.

  3. For whom the bells toll: Demography of the last population of the butterfly Euphydryas maturna in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Konvička, Martin; Čížek, Oldřich; Filipová, L.; Fric, Zdeněk; Beneš, Jiří; Křupka, M.; Zámečník, J.; Dočkalová, Z.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 5 (2005), s. 551-557 ISSN 0006-3088 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA526/04/0417 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : butterfly conservation * dynamics metapopulation * mark-release-recapture Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.240, year: 2005

  4. The last population of the Woodland Brown butterfly (Lopinga achine) in the Czech Republic: habitat use, demography and site management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Konvička, Martin; Novák, J.; Beneš, Jiří; Fric, Zdeněk; Bradley, J.; Keil, P.; Hrček, J.; Chobot, K.; Marhoul, P.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 5 (2008), s. 549-560 ISSN 1366-638X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA526/04/0417; GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : butterfly conservation * canopy * forest ground flora Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.838, year: 2008

  5. The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart

    2015-01-01

    Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...

  6. The geography of demography: long-term demographic studies and species distribution models reveal a species border limited by adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckhart, V M; Geber, M A; Morris, W F; Fabio, E S; Tiffin, P; Moeller, D A

    2011-10-01

    Potential causes of species' geographic distribution limits fall into two broad classes: (1) limited adaptation across spatially variable environments and (2) limited opportunities to colonize unoccupied areas. Combining demographic studies, analyses of demographic responses to environmental variation, and species distribution models, we investigated the causes of range limits in a model system, the eastern border of the California annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Vital rates of 20 populations varied with growing season temperature and precipitation: fruit number and overwinter survival of 1-year-old seeds declined steeply, while current-year seed germination increased modestly along west-to-east gradients in decreasing temperature, decreasing mean precipitation, and increasing variation in precipitation. Long-term stochastic finite rate of increase, λ(s), exhibited a fourfold range and varied among geologic surface materials as well as with temperature and precipitation. Growth rate declined significantly toward the eastern border, falling below 1 in three of the five easternmost populations. Distribution models employing demographically important environmental variables predicted low habitat favorability beyond the eastern border. Models that filtered or weighted population presences by λ(s) predicted steeper eastward declines in favorability and assigned greater roles in setting the distribution to among-year variation in precipitation and to geologic surface material. These analyses reveal a species border likely set by limited adaptation to declining environmental quality.

  7. Genes, Demography, and Life Span: The Contribution of Demographic Data in Genetic Studies on Aging and Longevity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yashin, AI; De Benedictis, G; Vaupel, JW

    1999-01-01

    In population studies on aging, the data on genetic markers are often collected for individuals from different age groups. The purpose of such studies is to identify, by comparison of the frequencies of selected genotypes, “longevity” or “frailty” genes in the oldest and in younger groups...... of individuals. To address questions about more-complicated aspects of genetic influence on longevity, additional information must be used. In this article, we show that the use of demographic information, together with data on genetic markers, allows us to calculate hazard rates, relative risks, and survival...... functions for respective genes or genotypes. New methods of combining genetic and demographic information are discussed. These methods are tested on simulated data and then are applied to the analysis of data on genetic markers for two haplogroups of human mtDNA. The approaches suggested in this article...

  8. Effects of selected pharmaceuticals (ibuprofen and amoxicillin on the demography of Brachionus calyciflorus and Brachionus havanaensis (Rotifera

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda Karen González-Pérez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The levels of emerging chemicals have increased dramatically during the last two decades posing problems for human and environmental health. Pain-killers such as ibuprofen and antibiotics such as amoxicillin are generally consumed together and hence are discharged into waterbodies as effluents. The lack of a rigorous control of pharmaceutical discharges into natural waterbodies is a concern for limnologists and ecotoxicologists because of their possible effects on non-target organisms. Rotifers, due to their sensitivity, short generation time and high reproductive rates, are widely used as bioassay organisms in testing the effects of different substances including pharmaceuticals. Here we quantified the demographic responses of Brachionus calyciflorus and Brachionus havanaensis exposed to three sublethal concentrations of ibuprofen (25, 12.5 and 6.25 mg L−1 and amoxicillin (200, 100 and 50 μg L−1. Our data showed that both survivorship- and reproduction-related variables were negatively affected with increasing concentrations of both pharmaceuticals. The rate of population increase of B. calyciflorus (0.63–0.72 d−1 was not affected by amoxicillin or by ibuprofen but for B. havanaensis, it was decreased significantly (from 0.89 to 0.38 d−1. Compared to ibuprofen, amoxicillin had more adverse effects on both the rotifer species.

  9. Loco or no Loco? Holocene Climatic Fluctuations, Human Demography, and Community Based Management of Coastal Resources in Northern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calogero M. Santoro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of the southern Pacific mollusk loco (Concholepas concholepas, among other conspicuous marine supplies, are often cited as critical resources behind the long-term cultural and demographic fluctuations of prehistoric hunter-gatherers in the coastal Atacama Desert. These societies inhabited one of the world's most productive marine environments flanked by one the world's driest deserts. Both of these environments have witnessed significant ecological variation since people first colonized them at the end of the Pleistocene (c. 13,000 cal yr BP. Here, we examine the relationship between the relative abundance of shellfish (a staple resource along a 9,500-year sequence of archeological shell midden accumulations at Caleta (a small inlet or cove Vitor, with past demographic trends (established via summed probability distributions of radiocarbon ages and technological innovations together with paleoceanographic data on past primary productivity. We find that shellfish extraction varied considerably from one cultural period to the next in terms of the number of species and their abundance, with diversity increasing during periods of regionally decreased productivity. Such shifts in consumption patterns are considered community based management decisions, and for the most part they were synchronous with large and unusual regional demographic fluctuations experienced by prehistoric coastal societies in northern Chile. When taken together with their technological innovations, our data illustrates how these human groups tailored their socio-cultural patterns to what were often abrupt and prolonged environmental changes throughout the Holocene.

  10. The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katie M. Dugger; Eric D. Forsman; Alan B. Franklin; Raymond J. Davis; Gary C. White; Carl J. Schwarz; Kenneth P. Burnham; James D. Nichols; James E. Hines; Charles B. Yackulic; Paul F. Doherty; Larissa Bailey; Darren A. Clark; Steven H. Ackers; Lawrence S. Andrews; Benjamin Augustine; Brian L. Biswell; Jennifer Blakesley; Peter C. Carlson; Matthew J. Clement; Lowell V. Diller; Elizabeth M. Glenn; Adam Green; Scott A. Gremel; Dale R. Herter; J. Mark Higley; Jeremy Hobson; Rob B. Horn; Kathryn P. Huyvaert; Christopher McCafferty; Trent McDonald; Kevin McDonnell; Gail S. Olson; Janice A. Reid; Jeremy Rockweit; Viviana Ruiz; Jessica Saenz; Stan G. Sovern

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of species’ vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis...

  11. The use of data and knowledge about bird numbers and population demography for the conservation and management of migratory birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fox, Anthony David

    2011-01-01

    Flyway level assessment of changes in abundance is essential to assess the effectiveness of conservation and management. Additional data on demographic rates (reproduction and survival) is needed to underpin the causes of changes. Data on immigration or emigration are helpful but more difficult t...... to obtain. There should be more attention to the effects of hunting on population sizes. Much can be achieved if citizen science (counters are almost all volunteers!) is well organised but on the basis of good professional leadership to get the maximum out of it....

  12. Demography of the endangered tree species Ocotea porosa (Lauraceae along a gradient of forest disturbance in southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cibele Amato Munhoz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Ocotea porosa (Ness Barroso (Lauraceae, a typical tree of the southern Atlantic Forest in Brazil, was heavily exploited for timber in the last century. With the aim of examining the status of the remaining populations, we surveyed five forest fragments in the state of Paraná, in southern Brazil, and evaluated whether disturbances caused by selective logging and fragmentation were related to population structure of O. porosa. We assessed demographic aspects related to tree density, size hierarchy and individual allometry, correlating those parameters with fragment structure variables (fragment size, isolation and logging level. We found that, although all populations occurred in low densities (60-440 individuals ha−¹, the number of adults was significantly lower in the smaller and most disturbed fragments (13 and 35 individuals ha−¹, respectively. We did not detect changes in allometric relationships among individuals in the five populations studied. However, we found that populations in more heavily disturbed areas presented lower size hierarchy (i.e., less dominance of larger trees than did those in undisturbed areas, suggesting that selective logging affects the population structure of O. porosa, possibly affecting the rates of reproduction and fecundity, which may ultimately increase the probability of local extinction.

  13. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Hawaiian Archipelago since 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Hawaiian archipelago since 2013. Juvenile...

  14. Geography, population, demography, socioeconomic, anthropometry, and environmental status in the MAL-ED cohort and case-control study Sites in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Aldo A M; Oriá, Reinaldo B; Soares, Alberto M; Filho, José Q; de Sousa, Francisco; Abreu, Cláudia B; Bindá, Alexandre; Lima, Ila; Quetz, Josiane; Moraes, Milena; Maciel, Bruna; Costa, Hilda; Leite, Alvaro M; Lima, Noélia L; Mota, Francisco S; Di Moura, Alessandra; Scharf, Rebecca; Barrett, Leah; Guerrant, Richard L

    2014-11-01

    The Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort in the study's Fortaleza, Brazil, catchment area has a population of approximately 82 300 inhabitants. Most of the households (87%) have access to clean water, 98% have electricity, and 69% have access to improved toilet/sanitation. Most childbirths occur at the hospital, and the under-5 mortality rate is 20 per 1000 live births. The MAL-ED case-control study population, identified through the Institute for the Promotion of Nutrition and Human Development (IPREDE), serves 600 000 inhabitants from areas totaling about 42% of the city of Fortaleza. IPREDE receives referrals from throughout the state of Ceará for infant nutrition, and provides services including teaching activities and the training of graduate students and health professionals, while supporting research projects on child nutrition and health. In this article, we describe the geographic, demographic, socioeconomic, anthropometric, and environmental status of the MAL-ED cohort and case-control study populations in Fortaleza, Brazil. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. The XMM-Newton Wide-field Survey in the Cosmos Field (XMM-COSMOS) : Demography and Multiwavelength Properties of Obscured and Unobscured Luminous Active Galactic Nuclei

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brusa, M.; Civano, F.; Comastri, A.; Miyaji, T.; Salvato, M.; Zamorani, G.; Cappelluti, N.; Fiore, F.; Hasinger, G.; Mainieri, V.; Merloni, A.; Bongiorno, A.; Capak, P.; Elvis, M.; Gilli, R.; Hao, H.; Jahnke, K.; Koekemoer, A. M.; Ilbert, O.; Le Floc'h, E.; Lusso, E.; Mignoli, M.; Schinnerer, E.; Silverman, J. D.; Treister, E.; Trump, J. D.; Vignali, C.; Zamojski, M.; Aldcroft, T.; Aussel, H.; Bardelli, S.; Bolzonella, M.; Cappi, A.; Caputi, K.; Contini, T.; Finoguenov, A.; Fruscione, A.; Garilli, B.; Impey, C. D.; Iovino, A.; Iwasawa, K.; Kampczyk, P.; Kartaltepe, J.; Kneib, J. P.; Knobel, C.; Kovac, K.; Lamareille, F.; Leborgne, J. -F.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fevre, O.; Lilly, S. J.; Maier, C.; McCracken, H. J.; Pello, R.; Peng, Y. -J.; Perez-Montero, E.; de Ravel, L.; Sanders, D.; Scodeggio, M.; Scoville, N. Z.; Tanaka, M.; Taniguchi, Y.; Tasca, L.; de la Torre, S.; Tresse, L.; Vergani, D.; Zucca, E.

    2010-01-01

    We report the final optical identifications of the medium-depth (~60 ks), contiguous (2 deg2) XMM-Newton survey of the COSMOS field. XMM-Newton has detected ~1800 X-ray sources down to limiting fluxes of ~5 × 10-16, ~3 × 10-15, and ~7 × 10-15 erg cm-2 s-1 in the 0.5-2 keV, 2-10 keV, and 5-10 keV

  16. Elderly people as "apocalyptic demography"? A study of the life stories of older people in Hong Kong born in the 1930s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Jackie Yan Chi; Ku, Ben Hok Bun

    2016-01-01

    In Hong Kong, the general view still follows the biomedical discourse to define aging. The government and leading gerontologists follow the prevailing representation of elderly and describe growing old as a process of becoming "frail, infirm, and vulnerable" (Fealy et al., 2012: 91). Discussions of demographic trends often focus on the drastic effects of an aging society on economic development. Our research indicates that Hong Kong's construction of aging is a product of its market-driven economy. Drawing from the life stories of eight participants born in the 1930s, we examine the meaning of aging and the formation of character in a specific historical context, adopting the life-course perspective. We wish to understand how larger movements in the social and political world shaped the experiences of the participants and the strategies they developed to maintain agency and control in life. The participants in our study struggled for survival through unprecedented political disasters and social turmoil in their youth. When they reached maturity in the 1960s and 1970s, they devoted themselves to bettering their lives and contributed to the economic boom of the city. We maintain that the biomedical model offers a reductive and unjust means of viewing the people in this cohort, who are often seen as a problem and a burden. Challenging the prevailing ageist attitude, we set the life stories of the participants against the dominant biomedical model of aging. Our work aims to establish a just description of the life experiences of Hong Kong people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Demography, reproductive biology and diet of the bushveld gerbil Tatera leucogaster (Rodentia: Gerbillinae) in the Lake Rukwa valley, southwestern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odhiambo, Richgard O.; Makundi, Rhodes H.; Leirs, Herwig

    2008-01-01

    Seasonal abundance, reproductive biology and feeding ecology of the bushveld gerbil Tatera leucogaster (Peters, 1852) were investigated in small-scale maize field-fallow land mosaics in south-western Tanzania. The gerbils were collected over a 2-year period using Sherman live and Victor hold......-fast snap traps in permanent 4.5-ha grids. A total of 664 individuals were captured over 13 650 trap nights, giving an overall trap success rate of 4.9%. Trap success varied between seasons with and without crops in the field but not between habitat types. At this site, the breeding activity of this species...

  18. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, Nicholas J; Servanty, Sabrina; Regehr, Eric V; Converse, Sarah J; Richardson, Evan; Stirling, Ian

    2016-07-01

    Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. The effects of isolation on the demography and genetic diversity of long-lived species: Implications for conservation and management of the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennen, J.R.; Birkhead, R.D.; Kreiser, B.R.; Gaillard, D.L.; Qualls, C.P.; Lovich, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    In the southeastern United States, habitat loss has fragmented the landscape and isolated many populations of this region's flora and fauna, which has presumably resulted in smaller population sizes and reduced levels of genetic diversity. For example, forestry practices and anthropogenic disturbances are both cited as factors fragmenting the once extensive range of Gopherus polyphemus. One localized, but extreme, source of fragmentation was the impoundment of the Chattahoochee River in 1963 to form Walter F. George Reservoir along the border of Georgia and Alabama. The formation of this reservoir isolated populations of G. polyphemus on two newly created islands providing a natural laboratory to explore the demographics and genetic effects of fragmentation on a long-lived species. These populations were first surveyed in 1984 and, 21 years later, we revisited them to collect demographic data and tissue samples for genetic analysis. We genotyped all individuals for 10 microsatellite loci, and we tested these data for bottlenecks and compared them to levels of genetic diversity for populations from other portions of the range. We found 45 and two individuals on the larger and smaller islands, respectively. On the large island, however, the population size was identical to the 1984 survey. Only the population structure based on estimated age differed between the 1984 and 2004 surveys, while population size structure based on carapace length, sex ratio, and sex-specific growth rates did not differ. The population of the large island showed genetic evidence of a past bottleneck. The genetic diversity indices from the population of the large island, however, were comparable to or greater than those found at mainland sites, in particular from western populations.

  20. Distribution and demography of San Francisco gartersnakes (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) at Mindego Ranch, Russian Ridge Open Space Preserve, San Mateo County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Richard; Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2018-04-26

    San Francisco gartersnakes (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) are a subspecies of common gartersnakes endemic to the San Francisco Peninsula of northern California. Because of habitat loss and collection for the pet trade, San Francisco gartersnakes were listed as endangered under the precursor to the Federal Endangered Species Act. A population of San Francisco gartersnakes resides at Mindego Ranch, San Mateo County, which is part of the Russian Ridge Open Space Preserve owned and managed by the Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District (MROSD). Because the site contained non-native fishes and American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus), MROSD implemented management to eliminate or reduce the abundance of these non-native species in 2014. We monitored the population using capture-mark-recapture techniques to document changes in the population during and following management actions. Although drought confounded some aspects of inference about the effects of management, prey and San Francisco gartersnake populations generally increased following draining of Aquatic Feature 3. Continued management of the site to keep invasive aquatic predators from recolonizing or increasing in abundance, as well as vegetation management that promotes heterogeneous grassland/shrubland near wetlands, likely would benefit this population of San Francisco gartersnakes.

  1. Depth-acclimation of photosynthesis, morphology and demography of Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa in the Spanish Mediterranean Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, B.; Enríquez, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2002-01-01

    and roots at greater depths, thereby promoting the balance between photosynthesis and respiration in the shoots. C. nodosa, being a potentially fast-growing species compared to P. oceanica, had higher maximum photosynthetic and respiration rates as well as light compensation points for photosynthesis....... Photosynthetic efficiency at low light, however, was almost the same for the 2 species as suggested by the relatively small differences in mass-specific light absorption. Only C. nodosa acclimated physiologically to depth as light-use efficiency increased, and light compensation point declined significantly from...... shallow to deep water. P. oceanica, however, possessed low respiration rates and slightly lower light compensation points values than C. nodosa throughout the depth range. Shoot mortality and recruitment rates were unaffected by rooting depth. C. nodosa stand experienced fast shoot turnover compared to P...

  2. Influence of geology and human activity on the genetic structure and demography of the Oriental fire-bellied toad (Bombina orientalis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Jonathan J; Li, Pi-Peng; Yang, Bao-Tian; Zhou, Zheng-Yan; Leaché, Adam D; Min, Mi-Sook; Waldman, Bruce

    2016-04-01

    The Oriental fire-bellied toad (Bombina orientalis) is a commonly used study organism, but knowledge of its evolutionary history is incomplete. We analyze sequence data from four genetic markers (mtDNA genes encoding cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, cytochrome b, and 12S-16S rRNA; nuDNA gene encoding recombination activating gene 2) from 188 individuals across its range in Northeast Asia to elucidate phylogeographic patterns and to identify the historic events that shaped its evolutionary history. Although morphologically similar across its range, B. orientalis exhibits phylogeographic structure, which we infer was shaped by geologic, climatic, and anthropogenic events. Phylogenetic and divergence-dating analyses recover four genetically distinct groups of B. orientalis: Lineage 1-Shandong Province and Beijing (China); Lineage 2-Bukhan Mountain (Korea); Lineage 3-Russia, Northeast China, and northern South Korea; and Lineage 4-South Korea. Lineage 2 was previously unknown. Additionally, we discover an area of secondary contact on the Korean Peninsula, and infer a single dispersal event as the origin of the insular Jeju population. Skyline plots estimate different population histories for the four lineages: Lineages 1 and 2 experienced population decreases, Lineage 3 remained stable, while Lineage 4 experienced a sharp increase during the Holocene. The timing of the population expansion of Lineage 4 coincides with the advent of rice cultivation, which may have facilitated the increase in population size by providing additional breeding habitat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Harbor seal demography in Washington; capture, tagging, branding data collected from 1981-04-09 to 2007-11-20 (NCEI Accession 0140930)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Mammal Laboratories' California Current Ecosystem Program (AFSC/NOAA) in collaboration with Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife captured...

  4. Northern fur seal demography studies at San Miguel Island, California conducted from 1975-10-07 to 2014-09-26 (NCEI Accession 0141240)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Mammal Laboratories' California Current Ecosystem Program (AFSC/NOAA) initiated a long-term marking program of northern fur seals (Callorhinus...

  5. Predation risk and optimal foraging trade-off in the demography and spacing of the George River Herd, 1958 to 1993

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur T. Bergerud

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The behavior options of feeding animals lie on a continuum between energy maximization and minimization of predation risk. We studied the distribution, mobility, and energy budgets of the George River herd, Ungava from 1974 to 1993. We arranged the annual cycle into 6 phases where we argue that the importance between the priorities of optimal foraging and predation risk change between periods. At calving, risk is more important than foraging for females but males take more risk to optimally forage. During the mosquito season, insect avoidance takes priority over risk and for¬aging. Optimal foraging takes precedent over risk in the late summer and fall and it is at this time that the herd expanded its range relative to numbers and forage abundance. In the winter (December to mid-March animals sought restricted localized ranges with low snow cover to reduce predation risk. The spring migration of females may have increased risk during the interval the females were moving back to the tundra to give birth to their neonates on the low risk calv¬ing ground. In May, females sought early greens near treeline, which may have increased risk in order to provide maximum nutrition to their fetuses in the last weeks of pregnancy. The ancestors of the George River Herd during the Pleistocene, 18 000 yr. BP may have reduced predation risk by spacing-out in the Appalachian Mountains, removed from the major specie of the megafauna in the lowlands. With global warming, it is argued the major problem for caribou will be increased wolf predation rather than changing forage and nutritional regimes. It is essential that First Nation residents of the North maintain their option to manage wolf numbers if excessive predation in the future adversely affects the migratory herds of the Northwest Territories and Ungava.

  6. Demography of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) in the Bolivian Amazon : impact of seed extraction on recruitment and population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Boot, R.G.A.

    2002-01-01

    A demographic study was carried out on Bertholletia excelsa, the Brazil nut tree, in two primary forest sites in Northern Bolivia where Brazil nuts have been harvested for several decades. In spite of the large proportion (93€of seeds that are harvested, reasonable densities of recently emerged

  7. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, Nicholas J.; Servanty, Sabrina; Regehr, Eric V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture–recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993–1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653–984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001–2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98–1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00–1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92–1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

  8. Historical demography and historical sociolinguistics : the role of migrant integration in the development of Dunkirk French in the 17th century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knooihuizen, Remco; Dediu, D.

    2012-01-01

    Widespread minority language shift in Early Modern Europe is often ascribed to restrictive language policies and the migration of both majority- and minority-language speakers. However, without a sociohistorically credible account of the mechanisms through which these events caused a language shift,

  9. Identifying specific non-attending groups in breast cancer screening - population-based registry study of participation and socio-demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jensen Line

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A population-based breast cancer screening programme was implemented in the Central Denmark Region in 2008–09. The objective of this registry-based study was to examine the association between socio-demographic characteristics and screening participation and to examine whether the group of non-participants can be regarded as a homogeneous group of women. Method Participation status was obtained from a regional database for all women invited to the first screening round in the Central Denmark Region in 2008–2009 (n=149,234. Participation data was linked to registries containing socio-demographic information. Distance to screening site was calculated using ArcGIS. Participation was divided into ‘participants’ and ‘non-participants’, and non-participants were further stratified into ‘active non-participants’ and ‘passive non-participants’ based on whether the woman called and cancelled her participation or was a ‘no-show’. Results The screening participation rate was 78.9%. In multivariate analyses, non-participation was associated with older age, immigrant status, low OECD-adjusted household income, high and low level education compared with middle level education, unemployment, being unmarried, distance to screening site >20 km, being a tenant and no access to a vehicle. Active and passive non-participants comprised two distinct groups with different socio-demographic characteristics, with passive non-participants being more socially deprived compared with active non-participants. Conclusion Non-participation was associated with low social status e.g. low income, unemployment, no access to vehicle and status as tenant. Non-participants were also more likely than participants to be older, single, and of non-Danish origin. Compared to active non-participants, passive non-participants were characterized by e.g. lower income and lower educational level. Different interventions might be warranted to increase participation in the two non-participant groups.

  10. Is Demography Still Destiny? Neighborhood Demographics and Public High School Students' Readiness for College in New York City. A Research and Policy Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fruchter, Norm; Hester, Megan; Mokhtar, Christina; Shahn, Zach

    2012-01-01

    Over the past decade, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has reorganized the New York City school system using principles and strategies extrapolated from his corporate sector experience. The mayor and his administration have restructured the public school system into a portfolio district centered on choice, autonomy, and accountability. These strategies…

  11. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across American Samoa since 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across American Samoa in 2015. Juvenile colony surveys...

  12. Genetic Structuration, Demography and Evolutionary History of Mycobacterium tuberculosis LAM9 Sublineage in the Americas as Two Distinct Subpopulations Revealed by Bayesian Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynaud, Yann; Millet, Julie; Rastogi, Nalin

    2015-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) remains broadly present in the Americas despite intense global efforts for its control and elimination. Starting from a large dataset comprising spoligotyping (n = 21183 isolates) and 12-loci MIRU-VNTRs data (n = 4022 isolates) from a total of 31 countries of the Americas (data extracted from the SITVIT2 database), this study aimed to get an overview of lineages circulating in the Americas. A total of 17119 (80.8%) strains belonged to the Euro-American lineage 4, among which the most predominant genotypic family belonged to the Latin American and Mediterranean (LAM) lineage (n = 6386, 30.1% of strains). By combining classical phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian approaches, this study revealed for the first time a clear genetic structuration of LAM9 sublineage into two subpopulations named LAM9C1 and LAM9C2, with distinct genetic characteristics. LAM9C1 was predominant in Chile, Colombia and USA, while LAM9C2 was predominant in Brazil, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe and French Guiana. Globally, LAM9C2 was characterized by higher allelic richness as compared to LAM9C1 isolates. Moreover, LAM9C2 sublineage appeared to expand close to twenty times more than LAM9C1 and showed older traces of expansion. Interestingly, a significant proportion of LAM9C2 isolates presented typical signature of ancestral LAM-RDRio MIRU-VNTR type (224226153321). Further studies based on Whole Genome Sequencing of LAM strains will provide the needed resolution to decipher the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this successful family. PMID:26517715

  13. Comparative changes in density and demography of large herbivores in the Masai Mara Reserve and its surrounding human-dominated pastoral ranches in Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhola, Nina; Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y.; Reid, Robin S.; Hobbs, N. Thompson; Olff, Han

    Wildlife habitats in pastoral lands adjoining protected areas in east African savannas are getting progressively degraded, fragmented and compressed by expanding human populations and intensification of land use. To understand the consequences of these influences on wildlife populations, we

  14. Demography, diagnostics, and medication in dementia with Lewy bodies and Parkinson's disease with dementia: data from the Swedish Dementia Quality Registry (SveDem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fereshtehnejad SM

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad,1 Dorota Religa,2,3 Eric Westman,1 Dag Aarsland,2,4 Johan Lökk,1,3 Maria Eriksdotter1,3 1Division of Clinical Geriatrics, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences, and Society (NVS, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; 2Alzheimer's Disease Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; 3Department of Geriatric Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; 4Centre for Age-Related Diseases, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway Introduction: Whether dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB and Parkinson's disease with dementia (PDD should be considered as one entity or two distinct conditions is a matter of controversy. The aim of this study was to compare the characteristics of DLB and PDD patients using data from the Swedish Dementia Quality Registry (SveDem. Methods: SveDem is a national Web-based quality registry initiated to improve the quality of diagnostic workup, treatment, and care of patients with dementia across Sweden. Patients with newly diagnosed dementia of various types were registered in SveDem during the years 2007–2011. The current cross-sectional report is based on DLB (n = 487 and PDD (n = 297 patients. Demographic characteristics, diagnostic workup, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE score, and medications were compared between DLB and PDD groups. Results: No gender differences were observed between the two study groups (P = 0.706. PDD patients were significantly younger than DLB patients at the time of diagnosis (74.8 versus 76.8 years, respectively; P < 0.001. A significantly higher prevalence of patients with MMSE score #24 were found in the PDD group (75.2% versus 67.6%; P = 0.030. The mean number of performed diagnostic modalities was significantly higher in the DLB group (4.9 ± 1.7 than in the PDD group (4.1 ± 1.6; P< 0.001. DLB patients were more likely than PDD patients to be treated with cholinesterase inhibitors (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval = 1.8–3.5, whereas the use of memantine, antidepressants, and antipsychotics did not differ between the groups. Conclusion: This study demonstrates several differences in the dementia work-up between DLB and PDD. The onset of dementia was significantly earlier in PDD, while treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors was more common in DLB patients. Severe cognitive impairment (MMSE score ≤24 was more frequent in the PDD group, whereas more diagnostic tests were used to confirm a DLB diagnosis. Some similarities also were found, such as gender distribution and use of memantine, antidepressants, and antipsychotics drugs. Further follow-up cost-effectiveness studies are needed to provide more evidence for workup and treatment guidelines of DLB and PDD. Keywords: dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson's disease with dementia, age, diagnostic approach, medication, Mini-Mental State Examination

  15. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Pacific Remote Island Areas since 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Pacific Remote Island Areas since 2014....

  16. Coral reef ecosystem marine protected area monitoring in Fagamalo, American Samoa: comprehensive assessment of coral demography (adult and juvenile corals) from belt transect surveys in 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2010 the village of Fagamalo, Tutuila, American Samoa, designated a no-take Marine Protected Area that sees the protection of 2.25 square kilometers of ocean....

  17. Benthic Surveys in Vatia, American Samoa since 2015: comprehensive assessment of coral demography (adult and juvenile corals) from belt transect surveys in 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Jurisdictional managers have expressed concerns that nutrients from the village of Vatia, Tutuila, American Samoa, are having an adverse effect on the adjacent coral...

  18. Determining Watershed Management Efficacy in West Maui: Belt transect surveys of coral demography (adult and juvenile corals) from 2014 to 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The focus of the Wahikuli-Honokowai Watershed Management Plan is the land use practices and alterations affected in the agricultural and urban districts that have...

  19. Past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities affect genetic structure and population demography of the greater long-tailed hamster in northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Junbin; Xiao, Zhenlong; Li, Chuanhai; Wang, Fusheng; Liao, Jicheng; Fu, Jinzhong; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-09-01

    The genetic diversity and the spatial structure of a species are likely consequences of both past and recent evolutionary processes, but relevant studies are still rare in East Asia where the Pleistocene climate has unique influences. In this study, we examined the impact of past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities on the genetic structure and population size of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton), an agricultural rodent pest species in northern China. DNA sequence data of 2 mitochondrial genes and genotypic data of 11 microsatellite DNA loci from 41 populations (545 individuals) were gathered. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as well as species distribution modeling and coalescent simulations, were conducted to infer its historical and demographic patterns and processes. Two deeply diverged mitochondrial clades were recovered. A small one was restricted to the Shandong Peninsula while the main clade was further divided into 3 geographic clusters by their microsatellite DNA genotypes: Northwest, North-center and Northeast. Divergence dating indicated a Middle-to-Late Pleistocene divergence between the 2 clades. Demographic analysis indicated that all 3 and pooled populations showed consistent long-period expansions during last glacial period; but not during the Holocene, probably due to the impact of climate warming and human disturbances. Conflicting patterns between mtDNA and microsatellite markers imply an anthropogenic impact on North-center populations due to intensified agricultural cultivation in this region. Our study demonstrated that the impact of past glaciation on organisms in East Asia significantly differs from that of Europe and North America, and human activity is an important factor in determining the genetic diversity of a species, as well as its spatial structure. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  20. Improving mating performance of mass-reared sterile Mediterranean fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) through changes in adult holding conditions: demography and mating competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liedo, P.; Salgado, S.; Oropeza, A.; Toledo, J.

    2007-01-01

    Mass rearing conditions affect the mating behavior of Mediterranean fruit flies (medflies) Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann). We evaluated the effect of slight changes in the adult holding conditions of adult flies maintained for egg production on their mating performance. Colonization was initiated from wild flies collected as larvae from infested coffee berries (Coffea arabica L.). When pupae were close to adult emergence, they were randomly divided into 3 groups and the emerging adults were reared under the following conditions: (1) Metapa System (MS, control), consisting of 70 x 45 x 15 cm aluminum frame, mesh covered cages, with a density of 2,200 flies per cage and a 1:1 initial sex ratio; (2) Insert System (IS), with the same type of cage, and the same fly density and sex ratio as in the MS treatment, but containing twelve Plexiglas pieces (23 x 8.5 cm) to provide additional horizontal surface areas inside the cage; and (3) Sex-ratio System (SS), same as IS, but in this case the initial male: female ratio was 4:1. Three d later, newly emerged females were introduced, so the ratio became 3:1 and on the 6th d another group of newly emerged females was added to provide a 2:1 final sex ratio, at which the final density reached 1,675 flies per cage. The eggs collected from each of the 3 treatments were reared independently following standard procedures and the adults were held under the same experimental conditions. This process was repeated for over 10 to 13 generations (1 year). The experiment was repeated 3 times in 3 consecutive years, starting each replicate with a new collection of wild flies. Life tables were constructed for each treatment at the parental, 3rd, 6th, and 9th generations. Standard quality control parameters (pupation at 24 h, pupal weight, adult emergence, and flight ability), were estimated for each treatment every third generation in the third year. For the last generation each year, mating competitiveness was evaluated in field cage tests with wild flies. As colonization progressed, life expectancy and fecundity rates increased in the 3 rearing systems. There was no significant difference in standard quality control parameters among the 3 rearing systems. Wild males always achieved more matings than any of the mass reared males. Mating competitiveness of males from the IS, although surprisingly not from the SS, was significantly greater than that of males from the MS. Our results indicate that these slight changes in the adult holding conditions can significantly reduce the harmful effects of mass rearing on the mating performance of sterile flies. (author) [es

  1. Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: a prospective study of demography and clinical characteristics of 543 patients in the Spanish colorectal metastasectomy registry (GECMP-CCR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embún, R; Fiorentino, F; Treasure, T; Rivas, J J; Molins, L

    2013-05-28

    To capture an accurate contemporary description of the practice of pulmonary metastasectomy for colorectal carcinoma in one national healthcare system. A national registry set up in Spain by Grupo Español de Cirugía Metástasis Pulmonares de Carcinoma Colo-Rectal (GECMP-CCR). 32 Spanish thoracic units. All patients with one or more histologically proven lung metastasis removed by surgery between March 2008 and February 2010. Pulmonary metastasectomy for one or more pulmonary nodules proven to be metastatic colorectal carcinoma. The age and sex of the patients having this surgery were recorded with the number of metastases removed, the interval between the primary colorectal cancer operation and the pulmonary metastasectomy, and the carcinoembryonic antigen level. Also recorded were the practices with respect to mediastinal lymphadenopathy and coexisting liver metastases. Data were available on 543 patients from 32 units (6-43/unit). They were aged 32-88 (mean 65) years, and 65% were men. In 55% of patients, there was a solitary metastasis. The median interval between the primary cancer resection and metastasectomy was 28 months and the serum carcinoembryonic antigen was low/normal in the majority. Liver metastatic disease was present in 29% of patients at some point prior to pulmonary metastasectomy. Mediastinal lymphadenectomy varied from 9% to 100% of patients. The data represent a prospective comprehensive national data collection on pulmonary metastasectomy. The practice is more conservative than the impression gained when members of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons were surveyed in 2006/2007 but is more inclusive than would be recommended on the basis of recent outcome analyses. Further analyses on the morbidity associated with this surgery and the correlation between imaging studies and pathological findings are being published separately by GECMP-CCR.

  2. Lesiones medulares no traumáticas: etiología, demografía y clínica Nontraumatic spinal cord injury: etiology, demography and clinics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asencio Quintana-Gonzales

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Se realizó un estudio retrospectivo y descriptivo en 210 pacientes hospitalizados con lesión medular del Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación (INR, Callao-Perú (2000-2006 para conocer la etiología, características clínicas y socio-demográficas de los pacientes con lesiones medulares no traumáticas (LMNT. Se encontró una prevalencia de 27 % para LMNT siendo la edad promedio al inicio de la lesión 32,0 años; siendo varones el 50,5 %, y el 41,9 % tuvieron educación secundaría, el nivel de pobreza alcanzó el 90,5 %. Predominó la etiología infecciosa (viral y bacteriana en 37,6 %, con un 11,9 % de infección por HTLVI. No obstante ser el INR un centro de referencia, nuestros resultados son preliminares, siendo necesario realizar mayores estudios para proponer estrategias de prevención y control, dado el alto costo del tratamiento integral de rehabilitación en estos pacientes.We performed a retrospective and descriptive cross-sectional; study in 210 hospitalized patients with spinal cord injury at the National Institute of Rehabilitation (INR, Callao, Peru from 2000-2006. The goal was to describe etiology, and clinical and socio-demographic characteristics of non traumatic spinal cord injuries (LMNT. We found a prevalence of 27 % for LMNT, average age at onset of 32.0 years, male gender 50.5 %, and secondary education completed in 41.9 %, poverty 90.5 %. The infectious etiology (viral and bacterial was predominant in 37.6 %, with 11.9 infected with HTLVI. Although the INR is a reference center, the findings can’t be generalized because it isn’t a representative sample of the Peruvian population, further studies are necessary to propose strategies for prevention and control, considering the high cost of integral rehabilitation treatment in these patients.

  3. Demography of adults of the Marsh fritillary butterfly, Euphydras aurinia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) in the Czech Republic: Patterns across sites and seasons

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zimmermann, Kamil; Blažková, P.; Čížek, O.; Fric, Zdeněk; Hůla, V.; Kepka, Pavel; Novotný, David; Slámová, Irena; Konvička, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 108, č. 2 (2011), s. 243-254 ISSN 1210-5759 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP505/10/2167; GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : Lepidoptera * Nymphalidae * Euphydryas aurinia Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.061, year: 2011 http://www.eje.cz/scripts/viewabstract.php?abstract=1613

  4. Temporal Variation in Demography of the Chocoan River Turtle, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae, on Isla Palma, Malaga Bay, Pacific Coast of Valle del Cauca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Fernando Gárces Restrepo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Pocos estudios demográficos de larga duración han sido realizados en tortugas dulceacuícolas de Suramérica, pese a la necesidad de este tipo de investigación para esclarecer las variaciones naturales y fortalecer procesos de conservación en este grupo particular. En esta investigación se estudió la variación en la demografía de una población de la tortuga de río chocoana (Rhinoclemmys nasuta, a partir de información registrada en una localidad insular del Pacífico colombiano entre 2005 y 2012. En esta localidad se capturaron manualmente tortugas en cinco riachuelos con un área total de 0,4 ha. Se calculó el tamaño poblacional con el método Jolly-Seber en cuatro periodos (2005–06, 2007, 2011 y 2012, y se comparó la estructura poblacional. Se estimó la probabilidad de supervivencia y la probabilidad de captura para machos, hembras y juveniles utilizando el modelo Cormack-Jolly-Seber, y la tasa de crecimiento poblacional con el modelo POPAN. Se evidenciaron aumentos y disminuciones en el tamaño de la población. Se evidenció un aumento significativo del porcentaje de juveniles que hacen parte de la población durante el periodo de estudio. En todos los periodos las hembras dominaron la estructura de sexos de la población. Las variaciones temporales en el tamaño poblacional pueden deberse a cambios naturales en el hábitat o a efectos denso-dependientes. Sin embargo, también pueden corresponder a fluctuaciones normales en los parámetros poblacionales, por lo tanto monitoreos continuos donde se puedan correlacionar factores ambientales y físicos del hábitat podrían permitirnos elucidar a que se deben estas variaciones.

  5. Energy use and production, demography and the world-market oil price-influencing twenty years of economic performance and environment degradation in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez Lemus, Luis Gerardo [SUNY College of Environmental Science & Forestry (United States)

    1997-07-01

    I present a compilation of data describing Mexico's economic performance as it relates to demographic and natural resource characteristics. Statistical correlations suggest that long term economic output and energy efficiency are influenced mostly by human population numbers and fuel consumption rate, although its fluctuations have been clearly driven by those of the world-market oil price throughout 1970-90. Neither energy production, agricultural yield, OPEC's oil price or forest coverage appeared important in determining Mexican GDP response for this 20-year period. Significant relations of these fluctuations were found also in the rates of deforestation, air pollution and agricultural production, being all of these variables seemingly independent of the intrinsic human population growth rate. I discuss how Mexico could bridge the GDP gap with its current Nafta partners from this system-energy perspective. [Spanish] Presento una coleccion de datos que describen el comportamiento de la economia de Mexico relacionado con las caracteristicas demograficas y de sus recursos naturales. Las correlaciones estadisticas sugieren que la produccion economica a largo plazo y la eficiencia de la energia estan influenciadas principalmente por las cifras de poblacion humana y por el regimen de consumo de combustible, si bien sus fluctuaciones han sido claramente impulsadas por los precios del petroleo en mercado mundial a traves de 1970 a 1990. Ni la produccion de energia, el rendimiento agricola, el precio del petroleo de OPEC o la extension de los bosques resultaron importantes en la determinacion de la respuesta del PIB de Mexico para este periodo de 20 anos. Se encontraron relaciones significativas de estas fluctuaciones tambien en los regimenes de deforestacion, contaminacion del aire y produccion agricola, siendo todas esta variables de forma similar independientes de regimen intrinseco del crecimiento de la poblacion humana. Analizo como podria Mexico salvar la brecha del PIB con sus actuales socios del TLC de America del Norte desde la perspectiva de este sistema de energia.

  6. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Mariana Archipelago since 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Mariana archipelago since 2014. Juvenile...

  7. Phylogeography, historical demography and distribution modelling of freshwater fishes inhabiting seasonally fluctuating Mediterranean river systems: a case study using the Iberian cyprinid Squalius valentinus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Perea

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean freshwater fish fauna has evolved under constraints imposed by the seasonal weather/hydrological patterns that define the Mediterranean climate. These conditions have influenced the genetic and demographic structure of aquatic communities since their origins in the Mid-Pliocene. Freshwater species in Mediterranean-type climates will likely constitute genetically well-differentiated populations as a consequence of fragmentation resulting from drought/flood cycles, to varying extents depending on basin size. We developed an integrative framework to study spatial patterns in genetic diversity, demographic trends, distribution modelling, and landscape genetics to evaluate the evolutionary response of Mediterranean-type freshwater fish to seasonal fluctuations in weather. To test this evolutionary response, the model species used was Squalius valentinus, an endemic cyprinid of the Spanish Levantine area, where seasonal weather fluctuations are extreme, although our findings may be extrapolated to other Mediterranean-type species. Our results underscore the significant role of the Mediterranean climate, along with Pleistocene glaciations, in diversification of S. valentinus. We found higher nuclear diversity in larger drainage basins, but higher mitochondrial diversity correlated to habitat suitability rather than basin size. We also found strong correlation between genetic structure and climatic factors associated with Mediterranean seasonality. Demographic and migration analyses suggested population expansion during glacial periods that also contributed to the current genetic structure of S. valentinus populations. The inferred species distribution models support the significant contribution of precipitation and isothermality for S. valentinus habitat suitability. We highlight the importance of stable habitat conditions, fostered by typical karstic springs found on the Mediterranean littoral coasts, for the preservation of freshwater species inhabiting seasonally fluctuating river systems.

  8. Effects of experimental removal of Barred Owls on population demography of Northern Spotted Owls in Washington and Oregon—2017 progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lesmeister, Damon B.; Dilione, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

    2018-05-21

    Populations of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter referred to as Spotted Owl) are declining throughout this subspecies’ geographic range. Evidence indicates that competition with invading populations of Barred Owls (S. varia) has contributed significantly to those declines. A pilot study in California showed that localized removal of Barred Owls coupled with conservation of suitable forest conditions can slow or even reverse population declines of Spotted Owls. It remains unknown, however, whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions, greater densities of Barred Owls, and fewer remaining Spotted Owls. During 2015–17, we initiated a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experiment at three study areas in Oregon and Washington to determine if removal of Barred Owls can improve population trends of Spotted Owls. Each study area had at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on Spotted Owls, and represented different forest conditions occupied by the two owl species in the Pacific Northwest. This report describes research accomplishments and preliminary results from the first 2.5 years (March 2015–August 2017) of the planned 5-year experiment.

  9. Latinos en los Estados Unidos: Demografía, transnacionalismo, culturas e identidades. Latinos in the United States: Demography, transnationalism, cultures and identities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Ofelia Rodríguez Soriano

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available El fenómeno del crecimiento acelerado de la población latina en los Estados Unidos, ha suscitado el creciente interés en su abordaje por parte de científicos de diversas disciplinas. Entre los temas menos estudiados desde las sociedades emisoras, se encuentra la problemática sociocultural de los latinos en la sociedad estadounidense, los procesos de asimilación y/o inserción sociocultural a la misma y la (reconfiguración de sus identidades. En Cuba, sólo en los últimos años se han desarrollado algunas investigaciones que los abordan bajo un lente cualitativo. El estudio presentado realiza un acercamiento a esa problemática, a partir de la sistematización de obras de autores latinos, estadounidenses, y algunos resultados de investigaciones realizadas en nuestro país, aportando la sistematización de la autora con base en las experiencias acumuladas en el estudio del tema desde hace varios años, para la cual se propuso una breve caracterización de la heterogénea población latina de los Estados Unidos a partir de algunos rasgos sociodemográficos e indicadores socioeconómicos; describió el clima de intolerancia y racismo de que son objeto los latinos en ella, contexto en el cual estos desarrollan sus identidades; y analizó las pautas de las interacciones culturales entre las diferentes culturas latinas, la anglosajona y otras en la sociedad norteamericana- y las identidades múltiples resultantes de esos procesos de hibridación interculturales en los que intervienen diversos factores diferenciadores como el origen étnico, la clase social, el género, las generaciones etarias y migratorias, el color de la piel, y sus vínculos transnacionales.

  10. The population size, demography and the harvest strategy for the red deer (Cervus elaphus L. in the Polish eastern Carpathians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merta, D.

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a line intercept snow track index, the population density and numbers of red deer (Cervus elaphusL. in 8 Forest Districts (Baligród, Cisna, Dukla, Lutowiska, Komacza, Stuposiany, Rymanów and Wetlina were estimated during February 2000. The total number of red deer inhabiting the study area (134.0 thousand hectares of forest was 4,081 individuals. The average population density was 30.4 red deer/1000 ha and it ranged from 10.1 animals/1000 ha in Wetlina Forest District to 39.3 individuals/1000 ha in Dukla Forest District. In September 2000, observation records of 952 red deer indicated that male/female ratio was 1:1.6, and the calf/female index was 31 calves per 100 females. Using a population dynamics model, an annual population recruitment rate was calculated. It ranged from 10.5% to 18.1% of the population size in March and it was negatively correlated with the population density of wolves. A computer simulation of various harvest strategies showed that the low percentage of old stags in the present red deer population was caused by over-harvest of 2-5-year-old stags. Therefore, it is suggested that the percentage of young males in the hunting bag should not be higher than 30% of the total harvested males.

    [fr]
    En février 2000 nous avons estimé la densité de population et le nombre de cerfs (Cervus elaphusL. dans 8 Districts Forestiers (Baligrod, Cisn, Dukla, Lutowiska, Komancza, Stuposiany, Rymanow et Wetlina. Pour cela un index des empreintes sur la neige interceptant une ligne a été utilisé. Le nombre total de cerfs habitant dans la zone d'étude -134.000 ha de forêt- s'élevait à 4 081 animais. La densité moyenne de la population était de 30,4 cerfs par 1000 ha, chiffre oscillant entre 10,1 animais par 1000 ha dans le District Forestier de Wetlina et 39,3 individus par 1000 ha dans le District Forestier de Dukla. En Septembre 2000, les observations enregistrées pour 952 cerfs ont montré que le sex-ratio était de 1:1,6, et la relation faon/femelle était de 31 faons pour 100 femelles. En appliquant un modèle de dynamique de population, nous avons calculé le taux de recrutement, lequel peut aller de 10,5% à 18,1 % du total de la population au mois de mars; il était négativement corrélé avec la densité de population de loups. La simulation sur ordinateur des différentes stratégies d'extraction a montré que le has pourcentage de vieux mâles observé dans la population actuelle était dû à la surchasse des mâles âgés de 2-5 ans. Nous pouvons recommander que la pression de chasse sur les jeunes mâles ne dépasse pas 30% du nombre total de mâles chassés.
    [es]
    Durante febrero del 2000 se estimó la densidad de población y el número de ciervos (Cervus elaphusL. en 8 distritos forestales (Baligród, Cisna, Dukla, Lutowiska, Komacza, Stuposiany, Rymanów y Wetlina por medio del índice de intercepción lineal de huellas en la nieve. Se obtuvo un total de 4081 individuos para el área de estudio (134.000 ha de bosque. La densidad media fue de 30,4 ciervos/1000 ha y su rango osciló de 10,1 ciervos/1000 ha (Distrito Forestal de Wetlina a 39,3 individuos/ 1000 ha (Distrito Forestal de Dukla. En septiembre de 2000 la observación de 952 individuos arrojó una sex-ratio de 1:1,6 (machos: hembra y un índice de 31 crías por cada 100 hembras. La tasa de reclutamiento anual se calculó mediante un modelo de dinámica poblacional, oscilando ésta entre el 10,5% y el 18,1% del tamaño poblacional en marzo y estando correlacionada negativamente con la densidad de lobos. Un programa informático de simulación de distintas estrategias de aprovechamiento cinegético mostró que el bajo porcentaje de machos viejos era debido a un exceso de caza de los venados de 2 a 5 años de edad. Por lo tanto, se recomendó que la proporción de machos jóvenes en el cupo no debería superar el 30% del total de machos cazados.

  11. Comparative demography of an epiphytic lichen: support for general life history patterns and solutions to common problems in demographic parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shriver, Robert K; Cutler, Kerry; Doak, Daniel F

    2012-09-01

    Lichens are major components in many terrestrial ecosystems, yet their population ecology is at best only poorly understood. Few studies have fully quantified the life history or demographic patterns of any lichen, with particularly little attention to epiphytic species. We conducted a 6-year demographic study of Vulpicida pinastri, an epiphytic foliose lichen, in south-central Alaska. After testing multiple size-structured functions to describe patterns in each V. pinastri demographic rate, we used the resulting estimates to construct a stochastic demographic model for the species. This model development led us to propose solutions to two general problems in construction of demographic models for many taxa: how to simply but accurately characterize highly skewed growth rates, and how to estimate recruitment rates that are exceptionally difficult to directly observe. Our results show that V. pinastri has rapid and variable growth and, for small individuals, low and variable survival, but that these traits are coupled with considerable longevity (e.g., >50 years mean future life span for a 4-cm(2) thallus) and little deviation of the stochastic population growth rate from the deterministic expectation. Comparisons of the demographic patterns we found with those of other lichen studies suggest that their relatively simple architecture may allow clearer generalities about growth patterns for lichens than for other taxa, and that the expected pattern of faster growth rates for epiphytic species is substantiated.

  12. Effects of experimental removal of barred owls on population demography of northern spotted owls in Washington and Oregon—2015 progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lewicki, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

    2016-03-14

    Evidence indicates that competition with newly established barred owls (Strix varia) is causing rapid declines in populations of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), and that the longterm persistence of spotted owls may be in question without additional management intervention. A pilot study in California showed that lethal removal of barred owls in combination with habitat conservation may be able to slow or even reverse population declines of spotted owls at local scales, but it remains unknown whether similar results can be obtained in larger areas with different forest conditions and where barred owls are more abundant. In 2015, we implemented a before-after-controlimpact (BACI) experimental design on two study areas in Oregon and Washington with at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on spotted owls to determine if removal of barred owls can improve population trends of spatially associated spotted owls. Here we provide an overview of our research accomplishments and preliminary results in Oregon and Washington in 2015.

  13. Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter; Lloyd, Patsy

    2011-02-01

    To estimate Toxocara infection rates by age, gender and ethnicity for US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). After initial analysis to account for missing data, a binary regression model is applied to obtain relative risks of Toxocara infection for 20,396 survey subjects. The regression incorporates interplay between demographic attributes (age, ethnicity and gender), family poverty and geographic context (region, metropolitan status). Prevalence estimates for counties are then made, distinguishing between subpopulations in poverty and not in poverty. Even after allowing for elevated infection risk associated with poverty, seropositivity is elevated among Black non-Hispanics and other ethnic groups. There are also distinct effects of region. When regression results are translated into county prevalence estimates, the main influences on variation in county rates are percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks and county poverty. For targeting prevention it is important to assess implications of national survey data for small area prevalence. Using data from NHANES, the study confirms that both individual level risk factors and geographic contextual factors affect chances of Toxocara infection.

  14. Patterns of Nucleotide Diversity at the Regions Encompassing the Drosophila Insulin-Like Peptide (dilp) Genes: Demography vs. Positive Selection in Drosophila melanogaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guirao-Rico, Sara; Aguadé, Montserrat

    2013-01-01

    In Drosophila, the insulin-signaling pathway controls some life history traits, such as fertility and lifespan, and it is considered to be the main metabolic pathway involved in establishing adult body size. Several observations concerning variation in body size in the Drosophila genus are suggestive of its adaptive character. Genes encoding proteins in this pathway are, therefore, good candidates to have experienced adaptive changes and to reveal the footprint of positive selection. The Drosophila insulin-like peptides (DILPs) are the ligands that trigger the insulin-signaling cascade. In Drosophila melanogaster, there are several peptides that are structurally similar to the single mammalian insulin peptide. The footprint of recent adaptive changes on nucleotide variation can be unveiled through the analysis of polymorphism and divergence. With this aim, we have surveyed nucleotide sequence variation at the dilp1-7 genes in a natural population of D. melanogaster. The comparison of polymorphism in D. melanogaster and divergence from D. simulans at different functional classes of the dilp genes provided no evidence of adaptive protein evolution after the split of the D. melanogaster and D. simulans lineages. However, our survey of polymorphism at the dilp gene regions of D. melanogaster has provided some evidence for the action of positive selection at or near these genes. The regions encompassing the dilp1-4 genes and the dilp6 gene stand out as likely affected by recent adaptive events. PMID:23308258

  15. Demography, maternal health and the epidemiology of malaria and other major infectious diseases in the rural department Tsamba-Magotsi, Ngounie Province, in central African Gabon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Zoleko Manego

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiological transition from a predominance of infectious diseases to non-communicable and lifestyle related conditions. However, the pace of this transition and the pattern of disease epidemiology are uneven between affluent urban and rural poor populations. To address this question for a remote rural region located in the central African rainforest region of Gabon, this study was conducted to assess reasons for health care attendance and to characterize the epidemiology of malaria and other major infectious diseases for the department of Tsamba Magotsi. Methods Major causes for health care attendance were collected from local hospital records. Cross sectional population based surveys were performed for the assessment of local malaria epidemiology. Pregnant women attending antenatal care services were surveyed as a sentinel population for the characterization of chronic viral and parasitic infections in the community. Results Infectious diseases were responsible for 71% (7469 of a total of 10,580 consultations at the formal health care sector in 2010. Overall, malaria – defined by clinical syndrome – remained the most frequent cause for health care attendance. A cross sectional malaria survey in 840 asymptomatic individuals residing in Tsamba Magotsi resulted in a Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence of 37%. The infection rate in 2–10 year old asymptomatic children – a standard measure for malaria endemicity – was 46% (100 of 217 with P. falciparum as predominant species (79%. Infection with other plasmodial species (P. ovale and P. malariae presented most commonly as coinfections (23.2%. Prevalence of HIV, HBV, and syphilis were 6.2, 7.3, and 2.5%, respectively, in cross-sectional assessments of antenatal care visits of pregnant women. Urogenital schistosomiasis and the filarial pathogens Loa loa and Mansonella perstans are highly prevalent chronic parasitic infections affecting the local population. Conclusions Despite major improvements in the accessibility of Tsamba Magotsi over the past decade the epidemiological transition does not appear to have majorly changed on the spectrum of diseases in this rural Gabonese population. The high prevalence of Plasmodium infection indicates a high burden of malaria related morbidity. Infectious diseases remain one of the most important health issues and further research activities in the field of tropical medicine and infectious diseases could help improve health care for the local population.

  16. Identifying specific non-attending groups in breast cancer screening - population-based registry study of participation and socio-demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Line Flytkjær; Pedersen, Anette Fischer; Andersen, Berit

    2012-01-01

    inviteret til første screeningrunde i Region Midtjylland (n=149.234). Resultaterne viste, at der er sociale forskelle blandt kvinder som deltager og kvinder som ikke deltager i brystkræft screening. De ældste kvinder, ugifte kvinder, kvinder med lav indkomst og lav uddannelse, kvinder ude for arbejdsmarked...

  17. Leprosy in a Lombard-Avar cemetery in central Italy (Campochiaro, Molise, 6th-8th century AD): ancient DNA evidence and demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubini, Mauro; Zaio, Paola; Spigelman, Mark; Donoghue, Helen D

    2017-09-01

    The study of past infectious diseases increases knowledge of the presence, impact and spread of pathogens within ancient populations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to examine bones for the presence of Mycobacterium leprae ancient DNA (aDNA) as, even when leprosy is present, bony changes are not always pathognomonic of the disease. This study also examined the demographic profile of this population and compared it with two other populations to investigate any changes in mortality trends between different infectious diseases and between the pre-antibiotic and antibiotic eras. The individuals were from a site in Central Italy (6th-8th CE) and were examined for the presence of Mycobacterium leprae aDNA. In addition, an abridged life mortality table was constructed. Two individuals had typical leprosy palaeopathology, and one was positive for Mycobacterium leprae aDNA. However, the demographic profile shows a mortality curve similar to that of the standard, in contrast to a population that had been subjected to bubonic plague. This study shows that, in the historical population with leprosy, the risk factors for health seem to be constant and distributed across all age classes, similar to what is found today in the antibiotic era. There were no peaks of mortality equivalent to those found in fatal diseases such as the plague, probably due to the long clinical course of leprosy.

  18. Reexamination of Color Vision Standards, Part I: Status of Color Use in ATC Displays and Demography of Color-Deficit Controllers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xing, Jing; Schroeder, David J

    2006-01-01

    This report describes the status of color use in current air traffic control (ATC) displays. It represents the first step in an effort to reexamine the color vision standards for air traffic controllers...

  19. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    ... technical expertise from the following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics... Advisory Committee are essential for sustained Advisory Committee membership as well as submission of... must have scientific and technical expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography...

  20. Population demography of Northern muriquis (Brachyteles hypoxanthus) at the Estação Biológica de Caratinga/Reserva particular do Patrimônio Natural-Felìciano Miguel Abdala, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strier, Karen B; Boubli, Jean P; Possamai, Carla B; Mendes, Sérgio L

    2006-06-01

    The 957-ha forest at the Estação Biológica de Caratinga/Reserva Particular do Patrimônio Natural-Felìciano Miguel Abdala, in Minas Gerais, Brazil, supports one of the largest known populations of the critically endangered northern muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus). We combine long-term data on one group that has been monitored since 1982 with new data obtained on the other three groups since 2002 and 2003 to describe the demographic structure of this population, evaluate its potential for future growth, and predict how dispersal and competitive regimes may change in response to current demographic conditions. As of January 2005, the 226 individuals in the population were divided into four mixed-sex groups with 37-77 members, and an all-male unit whose eight males maintained transient associations with two of the mixed-sex groups. Although 51.77% of the population was female, the sex ratio among adults and subadults was female-biased (0.75), while that among immatures was male-biased (1.47). Consistent with expectations from mean interbirth intervals, 64.18% of adult females gave birth in 2003 and 2004. However, by January 2005, only 52.31% of adult females were still carrying infants <24 months of age due to unusually high infant mortality. First-year survivorship among the 25 infants born in the population in 2003 was only 76%, considerably lower than previously documented in the longest-studied group. High female fecundity is indicative of a healthy population, but the current male bias in births will result in a decline in the population growth rate within two decades, and may increase levels of male reproductive competition and alter dispersal patterns. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. Microcystis extracts and single cells have differential impacts on the demography of cladocerans: a case study on Moina cf. micrura isolated from the Mediterranean coastal shallow lake (L'Albufera, Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nandini, S.; Miracle, M. R.; Vicente, E.; Sarma, S. S. S.; Gulati, R. D.

    2017-01-01

    Cyanobacteria often have a deleterious effect on zooplankton. We hypothesized that the presence of either M. aeruginosa cells or microcystin extracts from M. aeruginosa would have a significant impact on the population growth rate, survivorship, and fecundity of Moina cf. micrura isolated from

  2. "Brought under the law of the land" : the history, demography and geography of crossculturalism in early modern Izmir, and the Köprülü Project of 1678

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olnon, Merlijn

    2014-01-01

    The port-city of Izmir (old Smyrna) plays a crucial role in modern world history. From the 1570s, that city became subjected to European mercantile interests and quickly developed into the main conductor of an irreversible European takeover of the Ottoman economy – the structural basis of a

  3. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Pacific Remote Island Areas from 2017-04-02 to 2017-04-23 (NCEI Accession 0163743)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across Wake, Baker, Howland and Jarvis in 2017....

  4. Determining Watershed Management Efficacy in West Maui: Belt transect surveys of coral demography (adult and juvenile corals) from 2014-06-29 to 2015-12-01 (NCEI Accession 0137092)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The focus of the Wahikuli-Honokowai Watershed Management Plan is the land use practices and alterations affected in the agricultural and urban districts that have...

  5. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Main Hawaiian Islands from 2013-08-02 to 2013-10-29 (NCEI Accession 0159147)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Main Hawaiian Islands in 2013. Juvenile...

  6. Benthic Surveys in Vatia, American Samoa: comprehensive assessment of coral demography (adult and juvenile corals) from belt transect surveys between 2015-11-02 and 2015-11-12 (NCEI Accession 0165016)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Jurisdictional managers have expressed concerns that nutrients from the village of Vatia, Tutuila, American Samoa, are having an adverse effect on the adjacent coral...

  7. Coral reef ecosystem marine protected area monitoring in Fagamalo, American Samoa: comprehensive assessment of coral demography (adult and juvenile corals) from belt transect surveys from 2015-10-26 to 2015-11-13 (NCEI Accession 0166380)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2010 the village of Fagamalo, Tutuila, American Samoa, designated a no-take Marine Protected Area that sees the protection of 2.25 square kilometers of ocean....

  8. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across Wake Island from 2014-03-16 to 2014-03-20 (NCEI Accession 0159162)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across Wake Island in 2014. Juvenile colony surveys...

  9. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Mariana Archipelago from 2014-03-25 to 2014-05-07 (NCEI Accession 0159166)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Mariana Archipelago in 2014. Juvenile colony...

  10. Molecular Identification and Historic Demography of the Marine Tucuxi (Sotalia guianensis at the Amazon River’s Mouth by Means of Mitochondrial Control Region Gene Sequences and Implications for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Mark Shostell

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2005, three fishermen, with artisan fishing vessels and drift gillnets, accidentally captured around 200 dolphins between Vigia and Salinópolis in the Amazon River estuary. The dolphins died and they then prepared their vaginas and penises in order to sell them in the Ver-ao-Peso market in the city of Belem within the Brazilian state of Pará. We randomly sampled a minimal quantity of tissue of these sexual organs from 78 of these 200 dolphins and we determined the following results after sequencing 689 base pairs (bp from the mitochondrial control region gene: (1 96.15% (75/78 of these dolphins belonged to the species Sotalia guianensis. The other species detected were Steno brenadensis, Stenella coeruleoalba and Tursiops truncatus; (2 The levels of gene diversity found in this sample of S. guianensis were high (33 haplotypes, haplotype diversity of 0.917 and nucleotide diversity of 0.0045 compared to gene diversities found in other Brazilian S. guianensis locations; (3 All the population genetics methods employed indicated a clear population expansion in this population. This population expansion could have begun 400,000 years ago; (4 The haplotype divergence within this population could have begun around 2.1 millions of years ago (MYA, with posterior splits around 2.0–1.8 MYA, 1.7–1.8 MYA, 1–1.5 MYA, 0.6–0.8 MYA, 0.4–0.2 MYA and 0.16–0.02 MYA, all during the Pleistocene.

  11. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Hawaiian Archipelago from 2016-07-13 to 2016-09-27 (NCEI Accession 0159163)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Hawaiian archipelago in 2016. Juvenile...

  12. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across Jarvis Island from 2016-05-16 to 2016-05-22 (NCEI Accession 0159164)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across Jarvis Island in 2016. Juvenile colony surveys...

  13. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Pacific Remote Island Areas from 2015-0126 to 2015-04-28 (NCEI Accession 0159161)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Pacific Remote Island Areas in 2015....

  14. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across the Mariana Archipelago from 2017-05-05 to 2017-06-21 (NCEI Accession 0166383)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across the Mariana archipelago in 2017. Juvenile colony...

  15. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Stratified Random Surveys (StRS) of Coral Demography (Adult and Juvenile Corals) across Rose Atoll from 2016-05-01 to 2016-05-04 (NCEI Accession 0159167)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic coral demographic surveys for two life stages (juveniles, adults) across Rose Atoll in 2016. Juvenile colony surveys...

  16. The applicability of the South African census 2011 data for evidence-based urban planning

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse-Makhanya, Sibusisiwe

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available us? , - Volume 17 (1) June 2016 Southern African Journal of Demography Southern African Journal of Demography Volume 17(1) June 2016 CONTENTS Estimation of Swaziland fertility: What do the methods tell.... Quantitative and qualitative articles that enhance knowledge of the demography and its interaction with population issues in the Southern Africa region are considered. Articles may cover pure demography (fertility, mortality and migration...

  17. Fertility and pregnancy: an epidemiologic perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wilcox, Allen J

    2010-01-01

    .... Weaving together history, biology, obstetrics, pediatrics, demography, infectious diseases, molecular genetics, and evolutionary biology, Allen Wilcox brings a fresh coherence to the epidemiologic...

  18. Sexual behaviour and condom use among university students in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Onja Holisoa Rahamefy, Michèle Rivard, Madeleine Ravaoarinoro, Lala Ranaivoharisoa, Andriamiliharison Jean Rasamindrakotroka, Richard Morisset

    2008-03-26

    Mar 26, 2008 ... intercourse (Directorate of Demography and Social Statistics,. 2000). ..... partner refusal, immediate unavailability of condoms, intention ... of sexual acts, embarrassment when purchasing condoms, ..... Available online at.

  19. Dojížďkový přístup k vymezení městského, příměstského a venkovského obyvatelstva v České republice

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vobecká, Jana

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 1 (2009), s. 14-23 ISSN 0011-8265 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA700280802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70280505 Keywords : commuting * demography * countryside Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  20. Seasonal productivity and nest survival of Golden-cheeked Warblers vary with forest type and edge density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebecca G. Peak; Frank R., III Thompson

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the demography and habitat requirements of the endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is needed for its recovery, including measures of productivity instead of reproductive indices. We report on breeding phenology and demography, calculate model-based estimates of nest survival and seasonal productivity and evaluate...

  1. Variability in the Contribution of Different Life Stages to Population Growth as a Key Factor in the Invasion Success of Pinus strobus

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Münzbergová, Zuzana; Hadincová, Věroslava; Wild, Jan; Kindlmannová, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2013), no.-e56953 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA526/05/0430 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : comparative demography * biological control * plant demography Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  2. Demographic and Subsistence Change in a Complex Fisher-Forager Village: Evidence from Housepit 54, Bridge River Site, British Columbia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prentiss, Anne Marie; Walsh, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Paper presented in the symposium “Understanding Change in Prehistoric Demography and Subsistence” at World Archaeological Congress 8, Kyoto, Japan.......Paper presented in the symposium “Understanding Change in Prehistoric Demography and Subsistence” at World Archaeological Congress 8, Kyoto, Japan....

  3. Executive summary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Nimwegen, N.; van Nimwegen, N.; van der Erf, R.

    2009-01-01

    The Demography Monitor 2008 gives a concise overview of current demographic trends and related developments in education, the labour market and retirement for the European Union and some other countries. This executive summary highlights the major findings of the Demography Monitor 2008 and further

  4. Evolution of historical demography in the context of the New History تطور الديموغرافيا التاريخية في سياق التاريخ الجديد

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed Hali

    2014-01-01

    استندت الديموغرافيا منذ ظهورها في غرب أوربا في أواخر القرن التاسع عشر ومطلع القرن العشرون، إلى مناهج التقدير الكمي في دراسة السكان. وقد مهدت الدراسات الديموغرافية لنشأة الديموغرافيا التاريخية عند ما شرع الديموغرافيون في دراسة دينامية السكان في بعدها التاريخي. إلا أن طبيعة الوثائق والمواضيع فرضت على الباحثين في حقل الديموغرافيا التاريخية، بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية، تعديل أدوات المنهج الديموغرافي، وتبني المقاربة الكيفية في إطار المنهج التاريخي، بديلاً عن النماذج الرياضية المعقدة، وذلك في دراسة...

  5. South Africa : tous les projets | Page 3 | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sujet: INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL POLICY, DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION. Région: Americas, Brazil, South America, Asia, China, Far East Asia, India, South and Central Asia, Global, Africa, South Africa, South of Sahara.

  6. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  7. An Assessment of the Emerging Networks of Support for Street ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    Bamiwuye Olusina - Department of Demography and Social Statistics,. Obafemi Awolowo .... epidemic in 2010 is estimated to be more than double its present figure. ... spread of HIV/AIDS may not be complete without taking into consideration.

  8. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-08

    ... the Census Bureau on the uses of scientific developments in statistical data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  9. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-10

    ... the U.S. Census Bureau on the uses of scientific developments in statistical data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and... following disciplines: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  10. Legitimita a legitimizace

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šafr, Jiří

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 3, 1-2 (2005), s. 23-24 ISSN 1214-1720 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70280505 Keywords : Legitimacy * legitimization * authority Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography http://www.socioweb.cz

  11. Psychological distress and user experiences with health care provision in persons living with spinal cord injury for more than 20 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakimovska, V M; Kostovski, E; Biering-Sørensen, F

    2017-01-01

    were cases according to the GHQ-20. The cases did not differ from non-cases concerning demography, time since injury, injury aetiology, injury severity, marital status or employment status. The regression analysis revealed that cases were associated (P

  12. Economics | Page 12 | IDRC - International Development Research ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a must read for the next decade. David Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography and ... of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, USA.

  13. Employment and Growth | Page 72 | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography ... of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, USA ... This book explores the place of poor people within a rich variety of value chains, ...

  14. Demografické souvislosti stárnutí

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dimitrová, Michaela

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2007), s. 24-30 ISSN 1214-438X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70280505 Keywords : demographic (population) aging * individual aging * age structure Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  15. Vzdělávání dětí cizinců na pražských základních školách

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vojtíšková, Kateřina

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 2 (2012), s. 10-19 ISSN 1214-438X Institutional support: RVO:68378025 Keywords : inclusive education * qualitative research * acculturation strategies Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  16. Do Family Structure and Poverty Affect Sexual Risk Behaviors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    Family Structure, Poverty and Sexual Risk Behaviors ... Johannesburg, South Africa; 2Demography and Social Statistics Department, .... to high rate of adolescent sexual promiscuity as a ..... birth control and consequences of premarital sex.

  17. 78 FR 28411 - Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-14

    ..., motivation, experience, demography) and is also difficult to predict (Southall et al. 2007). Currently NMFS... travel to the eastern Beaufort Sea each summer despite seismic exploration in their summer and autumn...

  18. 77 FR 49921 - Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-17

    ... sound sources and their paths) and the receiving animals (hearing, motivation, experience, demography... (Johnson et al., 2007). Similarly, bowhead whales have continued to travel to the eastern Beaufort Sea each...

  19. Emigrace v Evropě a její bezpečnostní rizika

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cílek, Václav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 21 (2014), s. 32-37 ISSN 2336-4971 Keywords : migration * immigrants * refugees * nationalism * patriotism * territoriality * Europe * world conflicts * climate changes * integration of immigrants * assimilation * Muslims * foreigners Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  20. Rebuilding Status Consistency in a Post-Communist Society. The Czech Republic, 1991-97

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějů, Petr; Kreidl, Martin

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2001), s. 17-34 ISSN 1351-1610 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7028912 Keywords : status consistency * social transformation * Czech republic Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  1. (Ne)rovnost mužů a žen v práci

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křížková, Alena

    č. 9 (2003), s. 24-25 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IBS7028002 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7028912 Keywords : gender inequality * glass ceiling * gender stereotyping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  2. All projects related to india | Page 8 | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Region: South Asia, Central Asia, Far East Asia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Nepal, ... small and off-farm enterprises, especially those operated by women, in South Asia. ... Asymmetric Demography and Global Financial Governance. Project.

  3. HRD in the Netherlands: participation and costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Streumer, J.N.; Wognum, I.; Kwakman, C.H.E.; Heijden, B.I.J.M. van der; Zolingen, S.J. van

    2002-01-01

    Developments in economy, technology and demography have profound consequences for the training function in organisations. Training is, for instance, no longer an isolated activity for which training professionals alone are responsible. It has been given a strategic function. Training professionals

  4. Stručná historie chudoby. V bludném kruhu

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cílek, Václav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, č. 3 (2015), s. 38-41 ISSN 2336-4971 Keywords : poverty * hunger * food crisis * delinquency * violence * overpopulation * homelessness * begging * social assistance * climate * agriculture * economy * USA * western Europe Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  5. HRD in the Netherlands. Participation and costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Streumer, Jan; Wognum, Ida; Kwakman, C.H.E.; van der Heijden, Beatrice; van Zolingen, S.J.

    2002-01-01

    Developments in economy, technology and demography have profound consequences for the training function in organisations. Training is, for instance, no longer an isolated activity for which training professionals alone are responsible. It has been given a strategic function. Training professionals

  6. Final environmental statement: Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station, Unit No. 2. Final supplement. Docket No. 50-471

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    Information on candidate sites is presented concerning aquatic biology and water quality; terrestrial ecology and land use; demography; nearby industrial, transportation, and military facilities; hydrology; socioeconomics; and geology, seismology, and geotechnical engineering

  7. Na jaké otázky odpovídali sociologičtí klasikové? - 1. část

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Simonová, Natalie

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 4 (2003), s. 1 ISSN 1214-1720 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7028912 Keywords : August Comte * Max Weber * beginning of sociology Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography http://www.socioweb.cz

  8. Geografická mobilita židovského obyvatelstva v Čechách ve světle Soupisu židovských rodin z roku 1793

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Woitschová, K.; Woitsch, Jiří; Řezníček, M.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 30, - (2006), s. 31-66 ISSN 0323-0937 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z90580513 Keywords : geographic mobility * Jews * historical demography Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology

  9. Pracující rodiče: ženy i muži?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křížková, Alena

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 1 (2006), s. 6-8 ISSN 1214-1720 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70280505 Keywords : parenthood * discrimination of women Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography http://www.socioweb.cz

  10. Single Motherhood and Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Course Perspective

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Clark, S.; Hamplová, Dana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 5 (2013), s. 1521-1549 ISSN 0070-3370 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 Keywords : Child mortality * single motherhood * Africa Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 2.631, year: 2013

  11. Sub-Saharan Africa

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Feb 15, 2013 ... Institute for Mathematical Sciences – Next Einstein Initiative. The institute's ... for Mathematical. Sciences, applications for the August intake are now open! .... Organization, the National Institutes of Statistics and. Demography ...

  12. Life History Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Owen

    2016-01-01

    of these patterns and highlights the need to consider senescence from a broad taxonomic scope to truly understand the evolution of aging. Keywords: Aging; Demography; Evolution; Fertility; Gompertz; Life span; Mortality; Ontogenescence; Reproduction; Reproductive senescence; Senescence; Survivorship...

  13. Školy: mlčení o reformě

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějů, Petr

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 18, - (2006), s. 8 ISSN 1210-1168 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IBS7028302 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70280505 Keywords : university * education * reform Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  14. An overview of environmental indicators ; state of the art and perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkes JA; Born GJ van den; Helder JC; Swart RJ; Hope CW; Parker JDE; Rijksinstituut voor; University of Cambridge; ISC; MTV; Cambridge Universiteit Engeland

    1994-01-01

    Work on indicators is critically reviewed, focusing on a number of key issues ; air and water pollution ; natural resources and biodiversity ; climate change ; ozone depletion ; public health; demography ; production ; consumption ; and technology ; waste ; and costs of environmental protection

  15. 75 FR 64276 - Takes of Marine Mammals Incidental to Specified Activities; Navy Training Conducted at the Silver...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-19

    ... is to require shutdown or power-down of noise sources when a cetacean species is detected within the... sources and their paths) and the receiving animals (hearing, motivation, experience, demography) and is...

  16. Influence of DNA isolation from historical otoliths on nuclear-mitochondrial marker amplification and age determination in an overexploited fish, the common sole (Solea solea L.)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuveliers, E.L.; Bolle, L.J.; Volckaert, F.A.M.; Maes, G.E.

    2009-01-01

    Historical otolith collections are crucial in assessing the evolutionary consequences of natural and anthropogenic changes on the demography and connectivity of commercially important fish species. Hence, it is important to define optimal protocols for purifying DNA from such valuable information

  17. The Associate Program on Ethnobiology, Socio-Economic Value Assessment and Community Based Conservation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Twu, Maurice

    2000-01-01

    .... Current research efforts in the Korup Forest Dynamics Plot focus on data management and correction, as well as complementary research projects analyzing forest structure and composition, demography, and phenology...

  18. Epistemologie a dělení kvantitativní a kvalitativní sociologie

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ďurďovič, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 46, č. 4 (2014), s. 351-372 ISSN 0049-1225 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 Keywords : epistemology * sociological theory * quantitative sociology Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 0.200, year: 2014

  19. Speed kills, speed thrills. Constraining and enabling accelerations in academic work-life

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vostal, Filip

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 3 (2015), s. 295-314 ISSN 1476-7724 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : social acceleration * intensification * time * academia * academic work Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  20. Examining the Role of Couples' Characteristics in Contraceptive use ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria1; Provincial Education. Offices ... advertisements and jingles in the mass media, ... Unlike Nigeria, the percentage of women in union .... Both Muslim.