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Sample records for demands decision latitude

  1. Individual and work-unit measures of psychological demands and decision latitude and the use of antihypertensive medication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugaard, S; Andersen, JH; Grynderup, M B

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: To analyse whether psychological demands and decision latitude measured on individual and work-unit level were related to prescription of antihypertensive medication. METHODS: A total of 3,421 women and 897 men within 388 small work units completed a questionnaire concerning psychological...... working conditions according to the job strain model. Mean levels of psychological demands and decision latitude were computed for each work unit to obtain exposure measures that were less influenced by reporting bias. Dispensed antihypertensive medication prescriptions were identified in The Danish...... National Prescription Registry. Odds ratios (OR) comparing the highest and lowest third of the population at individual and work-unit level, respectively, were estimated by multilevel logistic regression adjusted for confounders. Psychological demands and decision latitude were tested for interaction...

  2. A two-year follow-up study of risk of depression according to work-unit measures of psychological demands and decision latitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grynderup, Matias Brødsgaard; Mors, Ole; Hansen, Åse Marie;

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine if high psychological demands and low decision latitude at work increase the risk of depression.......The aim of this study was to examine if high psychological demands and low decision latitude at work increase the risk of depression....

  3. Is the effect of job strain on myocardial infarction risk due to interaction between high psychological demands and low decision latitude?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallqvist, J; Diderichsen, Finn; Theorell, T;

    1998-01-01

    referents were included in the analysis. Exposure categories of job strain were formed from self reported questionnaire information. The results show that high demands and low decision latitude interact with a synergy index of 7.5 (95% C.I.: 1.8-30.6) providing empirical support for the core mechanism......The objectives are to examine if the excess risk of myocardial infarction from exposure to job strain is due to interaction between high demands and low control and to analyse what role such an interaction has regarding socioeconomic differences in risk of myocardial infarction. The material...... of the job strain model. Manual workers are more susceptible when exposed to job strain and its components and this increased susceptibility explains about 25-50% of the relative excess risk among manual workers. Low decision latitude may also, as a causal link, explain about 30% of the socioeconomic...

  4. No association found between cardiovascular mortality, and job demands and decision latitude: experience from the Västerbotten Intervention Programme in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padyab, Mojgan; Blomstedt, Yulia; Norberg, Margareta

    2014-09-01

    The current prospective study with the longest follow-up period in Northern Sweden aims to investigate the association between job demands and decision latitude and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Further, we aim to assess the effect of conventional risk factors (i.e., body mass index, alcohol consumption, physical activity, marital status, education and smoking) on the association between job demands and decision latitude and CVD mortality. The data originated from the Linnaeus database, available at the Center for Population Studies, Umeå University, Sweden. A cohort of men and women aged 40, 50 and 60 years were recruited from the Västerbotten Intervention Programme. Deaths due to stroke and myocardial infarction at the end of the follow up are considered the outcome. Baseline job characteristics were defined by the Swedish version of the Karasek demand/control model. Statistical methods include proportional Cox hazard modeling and Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI) to assess interactions. The findings from this study did not support the association between job demands and decision latitude and CVD mortality. Instead, conventional risk factors were found stronger predictors, most evidently education differentials were associated with CVD mortality. We know from previous research that the greater the attenuation of the gradient after adjustment for a given risk factor, the greater the potential to reduce educational inequality via interventions that target this factor. Based on the present findings of the experience in Västerbotten, further research is needed to identify other risk factors besides job strain and its components that would reduce the socioeconomic gradient in CVD mortality.

  5. Is the effect of job strain on myocardial infarction risk due to interaction between high psychological demands and low decision latitude? Results from Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program (SHEEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallqvist, J; Diderichsen, F; Theorell, T; Reuterwall, C; Ahlbom, A

    1998-06-01

    The objectives are to examine if the excess risk of myocardial infarction from exposure to job strain is due to interaction between high demands and low control and to analyse what role such an interaction has regarding socioeconomic differences in risk of myocardial infarction. The material is a population-based case-referent study having incident first events of myocardial infarction as outcome (SHEEP: Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program). The analysis is restricted to males 45-64 yr of age with a more detailed analysis confined to those still working at inclusion. In total, 1047 cases and 1450 referents were included in the analysis. Exposure categories of job strain were formed from self reported questionnaire information. The results show that high demands and low decision latitude interact with a synergy index of 7.5 (95% C.I.: 1.8-30.6) providing empirical support for the core mechanism of the job strain model. Manual workers are more susceptible when exposed to job strain and its components and this increased susceptibility explains about 25-50% of the relative excess risk among manual workers. Low decision latitude may also, as a causal link, explain about 30% of the socioeconomic difference in risk of myocardial infarction. The distinction between the interaction and the causal link mechanisms identifies new etiologic questions and intervention alternatives. The specific causes of the increased susceptibility among manual workers to job strain and its components seem to be an interesting and important research question.

  6. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations.

  7. Decision Making and the Avoidance of Cognitive Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kool, Wouter; McGuire, Joseph T.; Rosen, Zev B.; Botvinick, Matthew M.

    2010-01-01

    Behavioral and economic theories have long maintained that actions are chosen so as to minimize demands for exertion or work, a principle sometimes referred to as the “law of less work.” The data supporting this idea pertain almost entirely to demands for physical effort. However, the same minimization principle has often been assumed also to apply to cognitive demand. We set out to evaluate the validity of this assumption. In six behavioral experiments, participants chose freely between courses of action associated with different levels of demand for controlled information processing. Together, the results of these experiments revealed a bias in favor of the less demanding course of action. The bias was obtained across a range of choice settings and demand manipulations, and was not wholly attributable to strategic avoidance of errors, minimization of time on task, or maximization of the rate of goal achievement. Remarkably, the effect also did not depend on awareness of the demand manipulation. Consistent with a motivational account, avoidance of demand displayed sensitivity to task incentives and co-varied with individual differences in the efficacy of executive control. The findings reported, together with convergent neuroscientific evidence, lend support to the idea that anticipated cognitive demand plays a significant role in behavioral decision-making. PMID:20853993

  8. Disaggregating residential water demand for improved forecasts and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, G.; Brookshire, D.; Chermak, J.; Krause, K.; Roach, J.; Stewart, S.; Tidwell, V.

    2003-04-01

    -using fixtures, and ranges from hedonism (installing pools and whirlpool tubs) to satisficing (adjusting irrigation timers only twice per year) to acting on deeply-held conservation ethics in ways that not only fail any benefit-cost test, but are discouraged, or even illegal (reuse of gray water and black water). Research findings are being captured in dynamic simulation models that integrate social and natural science to create tools to assist water resource managers in providing sustainable water supplies and improving residential water demand forecasts. These models feature simple, graphical user interfaces and output screens that provide decision makers with visual, easy-to-understand information at the basin level. The models reveal connections between various supply and demand components, and highlight direct impacts and feedback mechanisms associated with various policy options.

  9. The decision optimization of product development by considering the customer demand saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-song Xing

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of over meeting customer demands on the product development process, which is on the basis of the quantitative model of customer demands, development cost and time. Then propose the corresponding product development optimization decision. Design/methodology/approach: First of all, investigate to obtain the customer demand information, and then quantify customer demands weights by using variation coefficient method. Secondly, analyses the relationship between customer demands and product development time and cost based on the quality function deployment and establish corresponding mathematical model. On this basis, put forward the concept of customer demand saturation and optimization decision method of product development, and then apply it in the notebook development process of a company. Finally, when customer demand is saturated, it also needs to prove the consistency of strengthening satisfies customer demands and high attention degree customer demands, and the stability of customer demand saturation under different parameters. Findings: The development cost and the time will rise sharply when over meeting the customer demand. On the basis of considering the customer demand saturation, the relationship between customer demand and development time cost is quantified and balanced. And also there is basically consistent between the sequence of meeting customer demands and customer demands survey results. Originality/value: The paper proposes a model of customer demand saturation. It proves the correctness and effectiveness on the product development decision method.

  10. Decision Making and the Avoidance of Cognitive Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kool, Wouter; McGuire, Joseph T.; Rosen, Zev B.; Botvinick, Matthew M.

    2010-01-01

    Behavioral and economic theories have long maintained that actions are chosen so as to minimize demands for exertion or work, a principle sometimes referred to as the "law of less work". The data supporting this idea pertain almost entirely to demands for physical effort. However, the same minimization principle has often been assumed also to…

  11. The Effects of Task Demands on Children's Metamemorial Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steuck, Kurt W.; Enright, Robert

    Using five metamemory question types and the Counting Span Test (CST), this research investigated the effects of metamemory task demands, and the relationship of the amount of information one can hold in working memory to metamemory question performance. One hundred twenty kindergarten, first, third, and fifth grade children served as subjects.…

  12. Small firms' demand for health insurance: the decision to offer insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Jack; Reschovsky, James D

    2002-01-01

    This paper explores the decisions by small business establishments (offer health insurance. We estimate a theoretically derived model of establishments' demand for insurance using nationally representative data from the 1997 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Employer Health Insurance Survey and other sources. Findings show that offer decisions reflect worker demand, labor market conditions, and establishments' costs of providing coverage. Premiums have a moderate effect on offer decisions (elasticity = -.54), though very small establishments and those employing low-wage workers are more responsive. This suggests that premium subsidies to employers would be an inefficient means of increasing insurance coverage. Greater availability of public insurance and safety net care has a small negative effect on offer decisions.

  13. SUPPLY CHAIN DECISION-MAKING AND COORDINATION UNDER PRICE-DEPENDENT DEMAND

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guangming HUANG; Lu LIU

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the decision-making and coordination of supply chain (SC) considering the effect of price-dependent demand. By assuming demand decreases as the price increases, we analyse the impacts of the dependence on the SC in three different models: decentralized without coordination,centralized coordination and decentralized with coordination by revenue sharing contract. The existence of the best solution in the different models is proved, and the performance of revenue sharing coordination SC is similar to the centralized one. We find that the more evidently the price affects the demand, the more revenue sharing contract improves the performance of SC. The dependence affects the decision-making and the parameter setting of revenue sharing contract is also found.

  14. Inventory and Credit Decisions under Day-Terms Credit Linked Demand and Allowance for Bad Debts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. Aggarwal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to stimulate demand of their product, firms generally give credit period to their customers. However, selling on credit exposes the firms to the additional dimension of bad debts expense (i.e., customer’s default. Moreover, credit period through its influence on demand becomes a determinant of inventory decisions and inventory sold on credit gets converted to accounts receivable indicating the interaction between the two. Since inventory and credit decisions are interrelated, inventory decisions must be determined jointly with credit decisions. Consequently, in this paper, a mathematical model is developed to determine inventory and credit decisions jointly. The demand rate is assumed to be a logistic function of credit period. The accounts receivable carrying cost along with an explicit consideration of bad debt expense which have been often ignored in previous models are incorporated in the present model. The discounted cash flow approach (DCF is used to develop the model and the objective is to maximize the present value of the firm’s net profit per unit time. Finally, numerical example and sensitivity analysis have been done to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  15. Demand driven decision support for efficient water resources allocation in irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuetze, Niels; Grießbach, Ulrike Ulrike; Röhm, Patric; Stange, Peter; Wagner, Michael; Seidel, Sabine; Werisch, Stefan; Barfus, Klemens

    2014-05-01

    Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, such as longer dry spells in the summer months, may have an increasing impact on the agriculture in Saxony (Eastern Germany). For this reason, and, additionally, declining amounts of rainfall during the growing season the use of irrigation will be more important in future in Eastern Germany. To cope with this higher demand of water, a new decision support framework is developed which focuses on an integrated management of both irrigation water supply and demand. For modeling the regional water demand, local (and site-specific) water demand functions are used which are derived from the optimized agronomic response at farms scale. To account for climate variability the agronomic response is represented by stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) which provide the estimated yield subject to the minimum amount of irrigation water. These functions take into account the different soil types, crops and stochastically generated climate scenarios. By applying mathematical interpolation and optimization techniques, the SCWPF's are used to compute the water demand considering different constraints, for instance variable and fix costs or the producer price. This generic approach enables the computation for both multiple crops at farm scale as well as of the aggregated response to water pricing at a regional scale for full and deficit irrigation systems. Within the SAPHIR (SAxonian Platform for High Performance Irrigation) project a prototype of a decision support system is developed which helps to evaluate combined water supply and demand management policies for an effective and efficient utilization of water in order to meet future demands. The prototype is implemented as a web-based decision support system and it is based on a service-oriented geo-database architecture.

  16. [Pelvi-perineal chronic pain, urgent demands of care and decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quistrebert-Davanne, V; Boudoukha, A-H; Levesque, A; Guérin, P; Nizard, J; Labat, J-J

    2017-06-01

    Some patients suffering from pelvi-perineal chronic pain express urgent, even vital, demands of care. The objective was to compare the profile and the psychological functioning of the patients, who have shown an imperious demand of care, in that of the patients who do not have an imperious demand of care. From the medical consultations for chronic pelviperineal pain, we realized a comparative study including 26 patients (experimental group) expressing an urgent demand of care (i.e., patients who, during the last 3months, called an emergency service concerning the pains for which they consult in the service) and 28 patients (control group) without an urgent demand of care (i.e., patient who, during the last 3months, did not call an emergency service concerning the pains for which they consult in the service). All the patients were tested through a cognitive task of decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task) and through explicit measures of pain and its main psychological associated factors (anxiety, depression, impulsivity an catastrophism). In the first place, the patients from the experimental group possess decision-making abilities equivalent to the patients of the control group; however, both groups of patients show, in the beginning of the test, a deficit in the decision-making (F(4.208)=3.4116; P=.009). Secondly, the measures to questionnaires reveal that the patients of the control group have less severe scores in the scales of depression (t(52)=-2.068; Pcognitivo-behavioral techniques. 3. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Optimal decisions and comparison of VMI and CPFR under price-sensitive uncertain demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasaman Kazemi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of two advanced supply chain coordination mechanisms, Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI and Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR, under a price-sensitive uncertain demand environment, and to make the optimal decisions on retail price and order quantity for both mechanisms. Design/ methodology/ approach: Analytical models are first applied to formulate a profit maximization problem; furthermore, by applying simulation optimization solution procedures, the optimal decisions and performance comparisons are accomplished. Findings: The results of the case study supported the widely held view that more advanced coordination mechanisms yield greater supply chain profit than less advanced ones. Information sharing does not only increase the supply chain profit, but also is required for the coordination mechanisms to achieve improved performance. Research limitations/implications: This study considers a single vendor and a single retailer in order to simplify the supply chain structure for modeling. Practical implications: Knowledge obtained from this study about the conditions appropriate for each specific coordination mechanism and the exact functions of coordination programs is critical to managerial decisions for industry practitioners who may apply the coordination mechanisms considered. Originality/value: This study includes the production cost in Economic Order Quantity (EOQ equations and combines it with price-sensitive demand under stochastic settings while comparing VMI and CPFR supply chain mechanisms and maximizing the total profit. Although many studies have worked on information sharing within the supply chain, determining the performance measures when the demand is price-sensitive and stochastic was not reported by researchers in the past literature.

  18. Optimal Guaranteed Service Time and Service Level Decision with Time and Service Level Sensitive Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangjun Park

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. The retailer sells a product to customer and the supplier provides a product in a make-to-order mode. In this case, the supplier’s decisions on service time and service level and the retailer’s decision on retail price have effects on customer demand. We develop optimization models to determine the optimal retail price, the optimal guaranteed service time, the optimal service level, and the optimal capacity to maximize the expected profit of the whole supply chain. The results of numerical experiments show that it is more profitable to determine the optimal price, the optimal guaranteed service time, and the optimal service level simultaneously and the proposed model is more profitable in service level sensitive market.

  19. Dynamic replenishment, production, and pricing decisions in the face of supply disruption and random price-sensitive demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Stuart X.

    2013-01-01

    We study a joint decision problem for replenishment, production, pricing strategies in the face of both supply and demand uncertainties. The supply of the raw material suffers from a potential supply disruption while the demand for the finished goods is price-sensitive and random. We assume that the

  20. A cumulative energy demand indicator (CED), life cycle based, for industrial waste management decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, Rita; Fullana-I-Palmer, Pere; Baquero, Grau; Riba, Jordi-Roger; Bala, Alba

    2013-12-01

    Life cycle thinking is a good approach to be used for environmental decision-support, although the complexity of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies sometimes prevents their wide use. The purpose of this paper is to show how LCA methodology can be simplified to be more useful for certain applications. In order to improve waste management in Catalonia (Spain), a Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (LCA-based) has been used to obtain four mathematical models to help the government in the decision of preventing or allowing a specific waste from going out of the borders. The conceptual equations and all the subsequent developments and assumptions made to obtain the simplified models are presented. One of the four models is discussed in detail, presenting the final simplified equation to be subsequently used by the government in decision making. The resulting model has been found to be scientifically robust, simple to implement and, above all, fulfilling its purpose: the limitation of waste transport out of Catalonia unless the waste recovery operations are significantly better and justify this transport. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Pricing decision research for TPL considering different logistics service level influencing the market demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: With the rapid development of economy and the support of government policy, the development of the logistics industry has become a new economic growth engine. As we all know, the reasonable price of logistics service is the most critical factor for logistics enterprises to win market share and make profit. At the same time, the service level is one of the most important factors which will influence the size of the market share. Therefore, this paper constructs a pricing model considering a situation that the logistics service level affects the market demand. This model helps the enterprises to make scientific decisions.Methodology: To achieve this objective, this paper constructs the TPL service and the pricing decision models based on the game theory.Findings: The conclusion shows that under the situation of independent decision-making, the enterprise which has strong ability of logistics service does not necessarily have a competitive advantage, while pricing equilibrium under the situation of joint decision-making, not only make both sides get more income, but also be conducive to improve the level of service.Research limitations: In this research, there are some assumptions that might affect the accuracy the model such as there are only two TPL enterprises to participate in, and considerations are taken under the condition of complete information environment. These assumptions can be relaxed in the future work.Originality: In this research, logistics service level is taken account into the areas of logistics service pricing, which makes the models more practical and more perfect. And this paper constructs game models based on game theory to make up the limitations of traditional pricing theories in logistics service pricing.

  2. 19 CFR 103.24 - Procedure in the event a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. 103.24 Section 103.24 Customs... Procedure in the event a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. If response to a demand is required before the instructions from the Chief Counsel...

  3. 12 CFR 404.32 - Procedure in the event a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. 404.32 Section 404.32 Banks... event a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. If response to a demand is required before a determination has been rendered by the General...

  4. Dynamic Request Routing for Online Video-on-Demand Service: A Markov Decision Process Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianxiong Wan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the request routing problem in the CDN-based Video-on-Demand system. We model the system as a controlled queueing system including a dispatcher and several edge servers. The system is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP. Since the MDP formulation suffers from the so-called “the curse of dimensionality” problem, we then develop a greedy heuristic algorithm, which is simple and can be implemented online, to approximately solve the MDP model. However, we do not know how far it deviates from the optimal solution. To address this problem, we further aggregate the state space of the original MDP model and use the bounded-parameter MDP (BMDP to reformulate the system. This allows us to obtain a suboptimal solution with a known performance bound. The effectiveness of two approaches is evaluated in a simulation study.

  5. 10 CFR 202.25 - Procedure where a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Procedure where a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. 202.25 Section 202.25 Energy DEPARTMENT OF... is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. If response to the demand...

  6. 22 CFR 206.4 - Procedure where a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Procedure where a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. 206.4 Section 206.4 Foreign... prior to the time a response to the demand is required. If the response to the demand is required...

  7. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferri, Gabriele; Cococcioni, Marco; Alvarez, Alberto

    2015-12-26

    This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality), used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called A η , is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support). The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided and show that So

  8. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Ferri

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality, used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called A η , is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support. The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided

  9. Behavioral indicators of household decision-making and demand for sanitation and potential gains from social marketing in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Marion W; Scott, Beth

    2007-06-01

    Household demand for improved sanitation in developing countries is an important social and behavioral process with implications for public health, sanitation policy and planning, and sanitation design and technology development. This paper develops a behavioral approach to assess household demand for improved sanitation in Ghana. Adoption decision stages of preference, intention, and choice to install a toilet in Ghana are defined, measured in a survey, and used to estimate sanitation demand, identify factors affecting demand at each stage, and classify households by adoption stage to identify targeted demand-stimulation strategies. Results from a representative national sample of 536 households indicate that of 74% of households without any home sanitation, 31% have some likelihood of installing a toilet within the next year, but only 6% are very likely to do so; 62% had not considered the idea. Motivating and constraining factors are compared at each adoption stage and strategies likely to increase toilet installation in Ghana discussed. The approach is useful for assessing behavioral indicators of sanitation demand in developing countries and suggesting where marketing approaches can and cannot work to accelerate adoption of household sanitation improvements.

  10. MOBILE 5G TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION INVESTMENT TIMING DECISION MAKERS CLUSTERING AND WILLINGNESS TO INVEST UNDER VOLATILE DEMAND CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saulius Adamauskas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises need to identify the optimal timing for technological change in order to increase competitiveness and increase the value of the company in an uncertain demanding environment. Investment decisions for adopting new technologies are costly and sometimes risky because technological investments are irreversible. To simulate the process, comprehensive technological adoption regarding investment timing was used in a management decision support model. The constructed model is structured as follows: 1 historical demand paths analysis; 2 application of statistical data validity tests; 3 the forecast of market parameters regarding data arrays using the geometric Brownian motion method, based on Monte Carlo simulation; 4 determination of technological life cycle using a Hodrick–Prescott filter; 5 technological adoption time-window determination; and 6 calculation of company net present values (NPV based on change in free cash-flow. The model for mature 5G mobile markets, created and empirical tested, was performed in relation to 18 largest Europe mobile service providers, as potential decision makers operating across 33 countries. Results confirmed that selection of the technological investment time depends on companies’ strategic financial decisions and financial state. The performed simulations revealed the consequence of 5G technology investment for investor roles, clustered according to financial data within a 5-year period (2010–2014. The analyzed companies were assigned to roles of pioneers-innovators, pragmatics, followers, or laggards. Finally, it is assumed and argued that financial parameters indicate the willingness to adopt new technologies in a global technologically changing environment.

  11. On the Law of Demand for Decision-Making to Push Forward the Development of Information Industry%论推动信息产业发展的决策需求律

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑英隆

    2000-01-01

    The motive force of the development of information industry is bred in information demand and is in a contradictory movement between information demand and information supply,whereas information demand focuses on the demand for decision-making for competitive dominance.Thus,the demand of information industry is actually driven hy decision-making demand.The paper points out that the key for the development of China's information industry is the cultivation of the decision-making people.

  12. 29 CFR 2.23 - Procedure where a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Procedure where a decision concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. 2.23 Section 2.23 Labor Office of the Secretary... concerning a demand is not made prior to the time a response to the demand is required. If the response...

  13. Impact of Risk Aversion on Price and Quality Decisions under Demand Uncertainty via the CARA Utility Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinqin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates optimal price and quality decisions of a manufacturer-retailer supply chain under demand uncertainty, in which players are both risk-averse decision makers. The manufacturer determines the wholesale price and quality of the product, and the retailer determines the retail price. By means of game theory, we employ the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA function to analyze two different supply chain structures, that is, manufacturer Stackelberg model (MS and retailer Stackelberg model (RS. We then analyze the results to explore the effects of risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer upon the equilibrium decisions. Our results imply that both the risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer play an important role in the price and quality decisions. We find that, in general, in MS and RS models, the optimal wholesale price and quality decrease with the risk aversion of the manufacturer but increase with the risk aversion of the retailer, while the retail price decreases with the risk aversion of the manufacturer as well as the retailer. We also examine the impact of quality cost coefficient on the optimal decisions. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the different degree of effects of players’ risk aversion on equilibrium results and to compare results in different models considered.

  14. Scrutinizing individuals’ leisure-shopping travel decisions to appraise activity-based models of travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Kusamastuti (Diana); E. Hannes (Els); D. Janssens (Davy); G. Wets (Geert); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractActivity-based models for modeling individuals’ travel demand have come to a new era in addressing individuals’ and households’ travel behavior on a disaggregate level. Quantitative data are mainly used in this domain to enable a realistic representation of individual choices and a true

  15. Scrutinizing individuals’ leisure-shopping travel decisions to appraise activity-based models of travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Kusamastuti (Diana); E. Hannes (Els); D. Janssens (Davy); G. Wets (Geert); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractActivity-based models for modeling individuals’ travel demand have come to a new era in addressing individuals’ and households’ travel behavior on a disaggregate level. Quantitative data are mainly used in this domain to enable a realistic representation of individual choices and a true

  16. Policy Decisions for a Price Dependent Demand Rate Inventory Model with Progressive Payments Scheme

    OpenAIRE

    Rajat Kumar; Mukesh Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Problem statement: In this proposed research, we developed an inventory model to formulate an optimal ordering policies for supplier who offers progressive permissible delay periods to the retailer to settle his/her account. We assumed that the annual demand rate as a decreasing function of price with constant rate of deterioration and time-varying holding cost. Shortages in inventory are allowed which is completely backlogged. Approach: The main objective of this study to frame an inventory ...

  17. Multi-crew Model Analytic Assessment of Landing Performance and Decision-making Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milgram, P.; Vanderwijngaart, R.; Veerbeek, H.; Bleeker, O. F.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the relative merits of the PROCRU approach to modelling multi-crew flight deck activity during approach to landing are discussed. On the basis of two realistic flight scenarios, the ability of the model to simulate different vectored approaches is demonstrated. A secondary exemplary analysis of a nominal and an accelerated final approach is performed, illustrating the potential of the expected net gain (ENGP) functions as a measure of decision-making load.

  18. Equilibrium Decision Method for Earthquake First-Aid Medicine Allocation Based on Demand Information Updating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Ye

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The allocation of rescue resources after an earthquake has become a popular research topic in the field of emergency management. The allocation of first-aid medicine for earthquake rescue has stronger time sensitivity than that of general rescue materials. This study focuses on the problem of first-aid medicine allocation in earthquake response. First, we consider the incompleteness and renewal of decision information in an emergency environment, as well as the balance between the risk of decision error and delay. Second, we propose an equilibrium decision method for the allocation of first-aid medicine in earthquake rescue based on information update. This method attempts to realize a fair allocation to all disaster places and minimize total transport time loss. Third, a simulation analysis is performed in which the proposed method is applied to the first-aid medicine allocation problem in the Wenchuan earthquake response. Results show that the method can be used to create a good allocation plan in an earthquake rescue situation.

  19. Pricing Decisions of a Dual-Channel Closed-Loop Supply Chain under Uncertain Demand of Indirect Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Gao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer under uncertain demand of an indirect channel is constructed. In this paper, we establish three pricing models under decentralized decision making, namely, the Nash game between the manufacturer and the retailer, the manufacturer-Stackelberg game, and the retailer-Stackelberg game, to investigate pricing decisions of the CLSC in which the manufacturer uses the direct channel and indirect channel to sell products and entrusts the retailer to collect the used products. We numerically analyze the impact of customer acceptance of the direct channel (θ on pricing decisions and excepted profits of the CLSC. The results show that when the variable θ changes in a certain range, the wholesale price, retail price, and expected profits of the retailer all decrease when θ increases, while the direct online sales price and manufacturer’s expected profits in the retailer-Stackelberg game all increase when θ increases. However, the optimal recycling transfer price and optimal acquisition price of used product are unaffected by θ.

  20. Policy Decisions for a Price Dependent Demand Rate Inventory Model with Progressive Payments Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajat Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In this proposed research, we developed an inventory model to formulate an optimal ordering policies for supplier who offers progressive permissible delay periods to the retailer to settle his/her account. We assumed that the annual demand rate as a decreasing function of price with constant rate of deterioration and time-varying holding cost. Shortages in inventory are allowed which is completely backlogged. Approach: The main objective of this study to frame an inventory model in real life situations. In this study, we introduced a new idea of trade credits, namely, the supplier charges the retailer progressive interest rates if the retailer prolongs its unpaid balance. By offering progressive interest rates to the retailers, a supplier, can secure competitive market advantage over the competitors and possibly improve market share profit. This study has two main purposes, first the mathematical model of an inventory system are establish under the above conditions and second demonstrate that the optimal solution not only exists but also feasible. We developed theoretical results to obtain the optimal replenishment interval by examine the explicit condition. An algorithm is given to find the flow of optimal ordering policy. Results: The results is illustrated with the help of numerical example using Mathematica software and the optimal solution of the problem is Z (p, T1 = 76.8586 at (p, T1 = (0.952656, 0.128844. Conclusion: We proposed an algorithm to find the optimal ordering policy. A numerical study has been performed to observe the sensitivity of the effect of demand parameter changes.

  1. The neuroeconomics of alcohol demand: an initial investigation of the neural correlates of alcohol cost-benefit decision making in heavy drinking men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKillop, James; Amlung, Michael T; Acker, John; Gray, Joshua C; Brown, Courtney L; Murphy, James G; Ray, Lara A; Sweet, Lawrence H

    2014-07-01

    Neuroeconomics integrates concepts and methods from psychology, economics, and cognitive neuroscience to understand how the brain makes decisions. In economics, demand refers to the relationship between a commodity's consumption and its cost, and, in behavioral studies, high alcohol demand has been consistently associated with greater alcohol misuse. Relatively little is known about how the brain processes demand decision making, and the current study is an initial investigation of the neural correlates of alcohol demand among heavy drinkers. Using an event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm, participants (N=24) selected how much they would drink under varying levels of price. These choices determined access to alcohol during a subsequent bar laboratory self-administration period. During decisions to drink in general, greater activity was present in multiple distinct subunits of the prefrontal and parietal cortices. In contrast, during decisions to drink that were demonstrably affected by the cost of alcohol, significantly greater activation was evident in frontostriatal regions, suggesting an active interplay between cognitive deliberation and subjective reward value. These choices were also characterized by significant deactivation in default mode network regions, suggesting suppression resulting from greater cognitive load. Across choice types, the anterior insula was notably recruited in diverse roles, further implicating the importance of interoceptive processing in decision-making behavior. These findings reveal the neural signatures subserving alcohol cost-benefit decision making, providing a foundation for future clinical applications of this paradigm and extending this approach to understanding the neural correlates of demand for other addictive commodities.

  2. Analysis of production-inventory decisions in a decentralized supply chain with price-dependent demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurdhi, N. A.; Irsanianto, S. T.; Sutanto

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a production-inventory supply chain system with single-manufacturer and single-retailer. There are many types of contract that guarantee the supply chain. However, the administrative costs of the contract are usually neglected in real situation. The additional gain from integration may not cover the extra administrative costs may not addressed to supply chain. Therefore, a Stackelberg game and RFM policy are examined in order to investigate its performance on supply chain. The RFM policy is applied because its administrative costs are lower than othe policies. Although RFM policy is not capable of coordinating the channel, it leads to considerable improvements over the channel. The purpose of this research is to present a model of integrated policy, in which the goal is to maximize the whole system profit, and to evaluate decentralized-Stackelberg and RFM policies, in which individual firms in the supply chain have their own objectives and decisions to optimize.

  3. Lot-Sizing Decisions under Trade Credit Depending on the Ordering Quantity in Fuzzy Annual Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chui-Yu Chiu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In reality, there are of various products such as liquids, volatile, medicines and materials, in which the rate of deterioration is very large. However, little attention has been mentioned what the effects of deterioration occur in most inventory systems. Also, the loss of the deterioration should not be neglected as an important issue. Approach: In this study, we proposed the problem of determining the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ for exponentially deteriorating items under the conditions of permissible delay in payments. Recent researches revealed that the payment for the product must be made forthwith when the order quantity is less than the allowable delay in payments. The fixed trade credit period was permitted, or else. Therefore, we utilized the fuzzy theory to implement more considerable answers via numerical examples which were provided to illustrate the results clearly at the end of study. Results: This study discussed the optimal replenishment cycle time for an exponentially deteriorating product under conditions of permissible delay in payments to take the order quantity into account. Conclusion/Recommendations: This study presented another fuzzy environment inventory model which accounts for the permissible delay in payments offered by supplier to the retailer. From the results, it can be concluded that another point of view to decision makers in uncertainty.

  4. Pricing decision model for new and remanufactured short-life cycle products with time-dependent demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu San Gan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we develop a model that optimizes the price for new and remanufactured short life-cycle products where demands are time-dependent and price sensitive. While there has been very few published works that attempt to model remanufacturing decisions for products with short life cycle, we believe that there are many situations where remanufacturing short life cycle products is rewarding economically as well as environmentally. The system that we model consists of a retailer, a manufacturer, and a collector of used product from the end customers. Two different scenarios are evaluated for the system. The first is the independent situation where each party attempts to maximize his/her own total profit and the second is the joint profit model where we optimize the combined total profit for all three members of the supply chain. Manufacturer acts as the Stackelberg leader in the independently optimized scenario, while in the other the intermediate prices are determined by coordinated pricing policy. The results suggest that (i reducing the price of new products during the decline phase does not give better profit for the whole system, (ii the total profit obtained from optimizing each player is lower than the total profit of the integrated model, and (iii speed of change in demand influences the robustness of the prices as well as the total profit gained.

  5. How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulus, Moritz

    2012-02-15

    During the last decade, China has evolved into the largest consumer by far and one of the largest importers of coal. The main driver for the increase in coal demand in China has been economic growth. Future Chinese growth rates, and therefore coal consumption and coal imports, are highly uncertain, which may affect profitability of new investments of international mining companies. Furthermore, China has actively employed an array of instruments to control coal trade flows in the last years. In this paper, we analyse the potential impact of increased Chinese coal import volatility and of potential exertion of Chinese market power on global mining investment decisions. For this purpose, we develop a multi-stage stochastic equilibrium model which is able to simulate investments under uncertainty and a monopolistic player in addition to a competitive fringe. We find that accounting for Chinese demand uncertainty yields significant costs for investors and also leads to a delay in investments. Additionally, the exertion of Chinese market power further reduces overall investment activity.

  6. Evidence-based process for decision-making in the analysis of legal demands for medicines in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Tatiana Aragão; Osorio-de-Castro, Claudia Garcia Serpa; Pepe, Vera Lúcia Edais

    2013-11-01

    Legal actions have been playing a significant role as an alternative pathway to access to medicines in Brazil. These lawsuits demand medicines used in Primary Health Care as well as medicines that are still in clinical research and have not been market approved by the Brazilian National Agency for Sanitary Surveillance (ANVISA). The goal was to analyze medicines demanded through lawsuits brought to the judicial district which includes the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from July/2007 to June/2008. The medicines in 281 lawsuits were examined for their respective indications, classified according to their presence in publicly-funded lists, market approval by ANVISA, compliance with national clinical guidelines, existence of alternative therapies in lists and support of indication by scientific evidence. Six different categories were described, which are deemed useful to managers and the Judiciary in decision-making. The support of evidence is of utmost importance for medicines that are not included in public funding lists and also for those with no available therapeutic alternatives.

  7. Task demands modulate decision and eye movement responses in the chimeric face test: examining the right hemisphere processing account

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason eCoronel

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A large and growing body of work, conducted in both brain-intact and brain-damaged populations, has used the free viewing chimeric face test as a measure of hemispheric dominance for the extraction of emotional information from faces. These studies generally show that normal right-handed individuals tend to perceive chimeric faces as more emotional if the emotional expression is presented on the half of the face to the viewer’s left (left hemiface. However, the mechanisms underlying this lateralized bias remain unclear. Here, we examine the extent to which this bias is driven by right hemisphere processing advantages versus default scanning biases in a unique way -- by changing task demands. In particular, we compare the original task with one in which right-hemisphere-biased processing cannot provide a decision advantage. Our behavioral and eye-movement data are inconsistent with the predictions of a default scanning bias account and support the idea that the left hemiface bias found in the chimeric face test is largely due to strategic use of right hemisphere processing mechanisms.

  8. Lack of adjustment latitude at work as a trigger of taking sick leave-a Swedish case-crossover study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Hultin

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Research has shown that individuals reporting a low level of adjustment latitude, defined as having few possibilities to temporarily adjust work demands to illness, have a higher risk of sick leave. To what extent lack of adjustment latitude influences the individual when making the decision to take sick leave is unknown. We hypothesize that ill individuals are more likely to take sick leave on days when they experience a lack of adjustment latitude at work than on days with access to adjustment latitude. METHODS: A case-crossover design was applied to 546 sick-leave spells, extracted from a cohort of 1 430 employees at six Swedish workplaces, with a 3-12 month follow-up of all new sick-leave spells. Exposure to lack of adjustment latitude on the first sick-leave day was compared with exposure during several types of control periods sampled from the previous two months for the same individual. RESULTS: Only 35% of the respondents reported variations in access to adjustment latitude, and 19% reported a constant lack of adjustment latitude during the two weeks prior to the sick-leave spell. Among those that did report variation, the risk of sick leave was lower on days with lack of adjustment latitude, than on days with access (Odds Ratio 0.36, 95% Confidence Interval 0.25-0.52. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show the influence of adjustment latitude on the decision to take sick leave. Among those with variations in exposure, lack of adjustment latitude was a deterrent of sick leave, which is contrary to the à priori hypothesis. These results indicate that adjustment latitude may not only capture long-lasting effects of a flexible working environment, but also temporary possibilities to adjust work to being absent. Further studies are needed to disentangle the causal mechanisms of adjustment latitude on sick-leave.

  9. The Neuroeconomics of Tobacco Demand: An Initial Investigation of the Neural Correlates of Cigarette Cost-Benefit Decision Making in Male Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Joshua C.; Amlung, Michael T.; Owens, Max; Acker, John; Brown, Courtney L.; Brody, Gene H.; Sweet, Lawrence H.; MacKillop, James

    2017-01-01

    How the brain processes cigarette cost-benefit decision making remains largely unknown. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), this study investigated the neural correlates of decisions for cigarettes (0–10 cigarettes) at varying levels of price during a Cigarette Purchase Task (CPT) in male regular smokers (N = 35). Differential neural activity was examined between choices classified as inelastic, elastic, and suppressed demand, operationalized as consumption unaffected by cost, partially suppressed by cost, and entirely suppressed by cost, respectively. Decisions reflecting elastic demand, putatively the most effortful decisions, elicited greater activation in regions associated with inhibition and planning (e.g., middle frontal gyrus and inferior frontal gyrus), craving and interoceptive processing (anterior insula), and conflict monitoring (e.g., anterior cingulate cortex). Exploratory examination in a harmonized dataset of both cigarette and alcohol demand (N = 59) suggested common neural activation patterns across commodities, particularly in the anterior insula, caudate, anterior cingulate, medial frontal gyrus, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Collectively, these findings provide initial validation of a CPT fMRI paradigm; reveal the interplay of brain regions associated with executive functioning, incentive salience, and interoceptive processing in cigarette decision making; and add to the literature implicating the insula as a key brain region in addiction. PMID:28157228

  10. Demand-control-person: integrating the demand-control and conservation of resources models to test an expanded stressor-strain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubino, Cristina; Perry, Sara Jansen; Milam, Alex C; Spitzmueller, Christiane; Zapf, Dieter

    2012-10-01

    We propose an expanded stressor-strain model that explicitly incorporates person characteristics, the Demand-Control-Person model. This model integrates Karasek's traditional Demand-Control model with Hobfoll's (1989) Conservation of Resources theory. With participants from two organizations, we tested the moderating role of emotional stability in conjunction with two job demands (i.e., uncertainty and time pressure) and control (i.e., decision latitude) in predicting two forms of strain (i.e., job dissatisfaction and disengagement). Our findings support the expanded Demand-Control-Person model, such that a significant three-way interaction emerged for uncertainty and time pressure. As predicted, the traditional Demand-Control model only held among individuals high in emotional stability, such that low-emotional stability individuals did either not benefit as readily from decision latitude or were more susceptible to job demands when they had decision latitude. Thus, the Demand-Control-Person model may provide a more comprehensive model and consistent prediction of the effect of stressors on strain as determined by individual characteristics.

  11. The construction of a decision tool to analyse local demand and local supply for GP care using a synthetic estimation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf-Ruizendaal, Willemijn A; de Bakker, Dinny H

    2013-10-27

    This study addresses the growing academic and policy interest in the appropriate provision of local healthcare services to the healthcare needs of local populations to increase health status and decrease healthcare costs. However, for most local areas information on the demand for primary care and supply is missing. The research goal is to examine the construction of a decision tool which enables healthcare planners to analyse local supply and demand in order to arrive at a better match. National sample-based medical record data of general practitioners (GPs) were used to predict the local demand for GP care based on local populations using a synthetic estimation technique. Next, the surplus or deficit in local GP supply were calculated using the national GP registry. Subsequently, a dynamic internet tool was built to present demand, supply and the confrontation between supply and demand regarding GP care for local areas and their surroundings in the Netherlands. Regression analysis showed a significant relationship between sociodemographic predictors of postcode areas and GP consultation time (F [14, 269,467] = 2,852.24; P 1,000 inhabitants in the Netherlands covering 97% of the total population. Confronting these estimated demand figures with the actual GP supply resulted in the average GP workload and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GP too much/too few for local areas to cover the demand for GP care. An estimated shortage of one FTE GP or more was prevalent in about 19% of the postcode areas with >1,000 inhabitants if the surrounding postcode areas were taken into consideration. Underserved areas were mainly found in rural regions. The constructed decision tool is freely accessible on the Internet and can be used as a starting point in the discussion on primary care service provision in local communities and it can make a considerable contribution to a primary care system which provides care when and where people need it.

  12. Optimal Decisions in a Single-Period Supply Chain with Price-Sensitive Random Demand under a Buy-Back Contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a single-period supply chain with a buy-back contract under a Stackelberg game model, in which the supplier (leader decides on the wholesale price, and the retailer (follower responds to determine the retail price and the order quantity. We analytically investigate the decentralized retailer’s optimal decision. Our results demonstrate that the retailer has a unique optimal simultaneous decision on the retail price and the order quantity, under a mild restriction on the demand distribution. Moreover, as it can be shown that the decentralized supply chain facing price-sensitive random demand cannot be coordinated with buy-back contract, we propose a scheme for the system to achieve Pareto-improvement. Theoretical analysis suggests that there exists a unique Pareto-equilibrium for the supply chain. In particular, when the Pareto-equilibrium is reached, the supply chain is coordinated. Numerical experiments confirm our results.

  13. The impact of demand management strategies on parents' decision-making for out-of-hours primary care: findings from a survey in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesen, Marie-Jeanne; Keizer, Ellen; van de Pol, Julia; Knoben, Joris; Wensing, Michel; Giesen, Paul

    2017-05-09

    To explore the potential impact of demand management strategies on patient decision-making in medically non-urgent and urgent scenarios during out-of-hours for children between the ages of 0 and 4 years. We conducted a cross-sectional survey with paper-based case scenarios. A survey was sent to all 797 parents of children aged between 0 and 4 years from four Dutch general practitioner (GP) practices. Four demand management strategies (copayment, online advice, overview medical cost and GP appointment next morning) were incorporated in two medically non-urgent and two urgent case scenarios. Combining the case scenarios with the demand management strategies resulted in 16 cases (four scenarios each with four demand management strategies). Each parent randomly received a questionnaire with three different case scenarios with three different demand strategies and a baseline case scenario without a demand management strategy. The response rate was 47.4%. The strategy online advice led to more medically appropriate decision-making for both non-urgent case scenarios (OR 0.26; CI 0.11 to 0.58) and urgent case scenarios (OR 0.16; CI 0.08 to 0.32). Overview of medical cost (OR 0.59; CI 0.38 to 0.92) and a GP appointment planned the next morning (OR 0.57; CI 0.34 to 0.97) had some influence on patient decisions for urgent cases, but not for non-urgent cases. Copayment had no influence on patient decisions. Online advice has the highest potential to reduce medically unnecessary use. Furthermore it enhanced safety of parents' decisions on seeking help for their young children during out-of-hours primary care. Valid online information on health symptoms for patients should be promoted. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Evaluating Job Demands and Control Measures for Use in Farm Worker Health Surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alterman, Toni; Gabbard, Susan; Grzywacz, Joseph G; Shen, Rui; Li, Jia; Nakamoto, Jorge; Carroll, Daniel J; Muntaner, Carles

    2015-10-01

    Workplace stress likely plays a role in health disparities; however, applying standard measures to studies of immigrants requires thoughtful consideration. The goal of this study was to determine the appropriateness of two measures of occupational stressors ('decision latitude' and 'job demands') for use with mostly immigrant Latino farm workers. Cross-sectional data from a pilot module containing a four-item measure of decision latitude and a two-item measure of job demands were obtained from a subsample (N = 409) of farm workers participating in the National Agricultural Workers Survey. Responses to items for both constructs were clustered toward the low end of the structured response-set. Percentages of responses of 'very often' and 'always' for each of the items were examined by educational attainment, birth country, dominant language spoken, task, and crop. Cronbach's α, when stratified by subgroups of workers, for the decision latitude items were (0.65-0.90), but were less robust for the job demands items (0.25-0.72). The four-item decision latitude scale can be applied to occupational stress research with immigrant farm workers, and potentially other immigrant Latino worker groups. The short job demands scale requires further investigation and evaluation before suggesting widespread use.

  15. Just in Time: How Evidence-on-Demand Services Support Decision Making in Ontario's Child and Youth Mental Health Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notarianni, Maryann; Sundar, Purnima; Carter, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Using the best available evidence to inform decision making is important for the design or delivery of effective health-related services and broader public policy. Several studies identify barriers and facilitators to evidence-informed decision making in Canadian health settings. This paper describes how the Ontario Centre of Excellence for Child…

  16. Better Demand Signal, Better Decisions? Evaluation of Big Data in a Licensed Remanufacturing Supply Chain with Environmental Risk Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Baozhuang; Zou, Zongbao

    2017-08-01

    Big data ability helps obtain more accurate demand signal. However, is better demand signal always beneficial for the supply chain parties? To answer this question, we investigate a remanufacturing supply chain (RSC), where demand uncertainty is significant, and the value to reduce environmental risk is large. Specifically, we focus on a licensed RSC comprising an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a third-party remanufacturer (3PR). The latter pays a unit license fee to the former, and can be risk averse to the demand of remanufactured products. We show that the OEM and the risk-neutral 3PR always have incentives to improve their big data abilities to increase their profits. However, when the 3PR is risk averse, big data might hurt its profit: the value of big data is positive if its demand signal accuracy is sufficiently low. Interestingly, we find that while information sharing hurts the 3PR, it benefits the OEM as well as the supply chain. Thus, if costly information sharing is allowed, a win-win situation can be achieved. We also find that information sharing generates more valuation when the 3PR is risk averse than that when the 3PR is risk neutral. More importantly, we find that the 3PR's risk attitude and demand signal accuracy can significantly mitigate the negative environmental impact (measured by the amount of the waste): (1) the more risk neutral the 3PR is, the better the environment is; (2) the more accurate demand signal is, the better the environment is. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. 弹性需求下交通BOT项目特许期决策%Decision-Making on Concession Period for Traffic BOT Project under Elastic Demand

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王东波; 宋金波; 戴大双; 李铮

    2011-01-01

    为解决弹性需求务件下的特许期决策问题,本文以交通BOT项目为研究对象,以实现政府社会消费者总剩余最大化与项目公司收益净现值最大化为决策目标,构建了完全信息动态博彝模型.求解出模型的精炼纳什均衡解,针对均衡解的性质展开讨论,从价格弹性视角分析了交通量需求变动对特许期决策的影响.最后,通过算例对特许期决策模型和均衡解的性质进行了验证.%Recently, BOT (build-operate-transfer) which could relieve the government' s financial burden and improve operating efficiency becomes an important method to operate the traffic infrastructure projects, and related researches of decision-making on concession period for traffic BOT project rapidly attract broad attention of both academic and practical field. The existing decision-making models of concession period usually ignore the price elasticity of traffic demand. In fact, traffic demand varies with the price and further affects the decision-making on concession period under the circumstances of multiple parallel toll roads in the same area or multiple toll bridges on the same river. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the price elasticity of traffic demand while making decision on concession period for traffic BOT projects.In the first part, the research takes traffic BOT projects as research subject, and develops a dynamic game model of complete information with several hypotheses to maximize government' s total consumer surplus and to maximize project company' s net present value of revenue respectively.In the second part, the backward induction is used to solve the perfect Nash equilibrium solution of the model, and the government' s optimal choice of concession period and project company' s optimal choice of concession price are achieved. ……In the third part, three properties of the equilibrium solution are concluded, and the effects of traffic demand variation on concession period' s

  18. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  19. A deterministic model for deteriorating items with displayed inventory level dependent demand rate incorporating marketing decisions with transportation cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Bhunia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with an inventory model, which considers the impact of marketing strategies such as pricing and advertising as well as the displayed inventory level on the demand rate of the system. In addition, the demand rate during the stock-out period differs from that during the stock-in period by a function varied on the waiting time up to the beginning of the next cycle. Shortage are allowed and partially backlogged. Here, the deterioration rate is assumed to follow the Weibull distribution. Considering all these factors with others, different scenarios of the system are investigated. To obtain the solutions of these cases and to illustrate the model, an example is considered. Finally, to study the effects of changes of different parameters of the system, sensitivity analyses have been carried out with respect to the different parameters of the system.

  20. Impact of Risk Aversion on Price and Quality Decisions under Demand Uncertainty via the CARA Utility Function

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Li, Qinqin; Liu, Zhiying; He, Yi

    2014-01-01

    ... large degree of decline; for example, Li Ning suffered a net loss of $318.78 million for 2012 and its revenue declined 24.5 percent year-on-year to $1.09 billion. The traditional assumption of risk-neutrality seems to be largely invalid for contemporary supply chain management. When facing random demand, the supply chain members, who are subject to ...

  1. A quantitative analysis of the supply and demand of veterinary manpower in India: implications for policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasidhar, P V K; Reddy, P Gopal

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate and forecastthe supply and demand of veterinary manpower in India. Intake numbers of veterinary students and numbers of graduates and postgraduates were collected for the period 1997 to 2007. Based on the annual growth rate, the demand and supply for the years 2015 and 2020 were predicted. Between 1997 and 2002 the average annual number of veterinary graduates was 1,675. This increased to 1,707 between 2002 and 2007, with a marginal growth rate of 1.87%. With a growth rate of 1.87% in graduates, and 4.5% growth rate in the Indian livestock sector, the number of additional graduates required to fill the gap between supply and demand for the years 2015 and 2020 would be 1,710 and 2,364, respectively. The annual postgraduate requirement for education and research and development is 310. However, between 2002 and 2007 the average annual number of veterinary postgraduates was 995, with a growth rate of 5.3% when compared with the period between 1997 and 2002, indicating a more than three-fold surplus. With a 5.3% growth rate in postgraduates and 4.5% growth rate in the livestock sector, the surplus postgraduates available by 2015 and 2020 will be 1,027 and 1,316, respectively. The study revealed that India is training fewer veterinary graduates and more postgraduates than the system requires. Therefore, it is recommended that attention and resources be directed to the expansion of professional undergraduate veterinary education, while postgraduate veterinary education should be contained and consolidated.

  2. Application of demand-control theory to sign language interpreting: implications for stress and interpreter training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, R K; Pollard, R Q

    2001-01-01

    The translation work of sign language interpreters involves much more than language. The characteristics and goings-on in the physical environment, the dynamics and interactions between the people who are present, and even the "inner noise" of the interpreter contribute to the accuracy, or lack thereof, of the resulting translation. The competent interpreter must understand and respond appropriately to the language and nonlanguage aspects of each interpreting assignment. We use the framework of demand-control theory (Karasek, 1979) to examine the complex occupation of sign language interpreting. Demand-control theory is a job analysis method useful in studies of occupational stress and reduction of stress-related illness, injury, and burnout. We describe sources of demand in the interpreting profession, including demands that arise from factors other than those associated with languages (linguistic demands). These include environmental, interpersonal, and intrapersonal demands. Karasek's concept of control, or decision latitude, is also explored in relation to the interpreting profession. We discuss the prevalence of cumulative trauma disorders (CTD), turnover, and burnout in the interpreting profession in light of demand-control theory and data from interpreter surveys, including a new survey study described herein. We conclude that nonlinguistic demand factors in particular and perceived restrictions in decision latitude likely contribute to stress, CTD, burnout, and the resulting shortage of sign language interpreters. We make suggestions for improvements in interpreter education and professional development, including the institution of an advanced, supervised professional training period, modeled after internships common in other high demand professional occupations.

  3. A decision aiding and action management tool to control the energy demand - from conception to development; Un outil d`aide a la decision et de gestion des actions pour la maitrise de la demande d`energie - de la conception au developpement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaehler, J.W.M.

    1993-07-06

    This work presents a synthesis of three points: the environment, energy and man. The consideration of these aspects allows us to confront the unequal distribution of energy resources, the constraints and political influences which determine the exploitation of these energy resources, and the concentration of the consumption of energy by one fifth of the world`s population and the perspective of future growth of energy use by the remaining four-fifths. It is understanding of the importance and the benefits of reducing energy requirements, combined with the environmental perspectives, that forms the core of the Integrated Resource Planning of Least is proposed. This framework will utilize the knowledge of the engineer for developing a system to aid with decision making and the management of information, and particularly with the notions henceforth referred to as `Demand-Site Management` as applied to the electrical grid. The model of such a Management Information System which demonstrates these theoretical advances is called SIADEME (Systeme Interactif d`Aide a la Decision et de Gestion des Actions de Maitrise de la Demande d`energie). This includes some examples for the management of electricity demand for both the lighting and refrigeration cases in large (> 2500 m{sup 2}) supermarkets for the French environmental and energy management agency (Ademe). (author) 216 refs.

  4. Job demands, job resources, and job performance in japanese workers: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Yuko; Inoue, Akiomi; Kawakami, Norito; Tsuno, Kanami; Tomioka, Kimiko; Nakanishi, Mayuko; Mafune, Kosuke; Hiro, Hisanori

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the cross-sectional association of job demands (i.e., psychological demands) and job resources (i.e., decision latitude, supervisor support, co-worker support, and extrinsic reward) with job performance. A total of 1,198 workers (458 males and 740 females) from a manufacturing company in Japan completed a self-administered questionnaire that included the Job Content Questionnaire, Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, World Health Organization Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, and demographic survey. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, decision latitude (β=0.107, p=0.001) and extrinsic reward (β=0.158, pextrinsic reward enhance job performance among Japanese employees.

  5. What are parents' perspectives on psychological empowerment in the MMR vaccination decision? A focus group study

    OpenAIRE

    Fadda, Marta; Galimberti, Elisa; Carraro, Valter; Peter J Schulz

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Most developed countries do not have compulsory immunisation requirements, but instead issue recommendations. Although parents are expected to make an informed, autonomous (ie, empowered) decision regarding their children's vaccinations, there is no evidence about how parents' interpret this demand nor on the latitude of their decision-making. The goal of this study is to gain insights from parents residing in a low measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) uptake area on what constitutes feelin...

  6. Improving World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by Integrating NASA Remote Sensing Soil Moisture Data into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, W. L.; de Jeu, R. A.; Doraiswamy, P. C.; Kempler, S. J.; Shannon, H. D.

    2009-12-01

    A primary goal of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is to expand markets for U.S. agricultural products and support global economic development. The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) supports this goal by developing monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the U.S. and major foreign producing countries. Because weather has a significant impact on crop progress, conditions, and production, WAOB prepares frequent agricultural weather assessments, in a GIS-based, Global Agricultural Decision Support Environment (GLADSE). The main objective of this project, thus, is to improve WAOB's estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing soil moisture observations and research results into GLADSE. Soil moisture is a primary data gap at WAOB. Soil moisture data, generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM, developed by NASA GSFC and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) and customized to WAOB's requirements, will be directly integrated into GLADSE, as well as indirectly by first being integrated into USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS)'s Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model. The LPRM-enhanced EPIC will be validated using three major agricultural regions important to WAOB and then integrated into GLADSE. Project benchmarking will be based on retrospective analyses of WAOB's analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns. WAOB is the focal point for economic intelligence within the USDA. Thus, improving WAOB's agricultural estimates by integrating NASA satellite observations and model outputs will visibly demonstrate the value of NASA resources and maximize the societal benefits of NASA investments.

  7. Energy Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E. et al.

    2014-01-01

    Key policy issues – How will energy demand evolve particularly in emerging and medium- and low- income economies? – What is the mix of end-use energy carriers to meet future energy demand? – How can energy efficiency contribute to reducing the growth rate of energy demand and mitigate pressures on t

  8. Job demands, job resources and safety outcomes: The roles of emotional exhaustion and safety compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Jiang, Li; Yao, Xiang; Li, YongJuan

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the job demands-resources (JD-R) model in explaining the relationship of job demands and resources with safety outcomes (i.e., workplace injuries and near-misses). We collected self-reported data from 670 crude oil production workers from three sub-companies of a major oilfield company in China. The results of a structural equation analysis indicated that job demands (psychological and physical demands) and job resources (decision latitude, supervisor support and coworker support) could affect emotional exhaustion and safety compliance, and thus influence the occurrence of injuries and near-misses. The implications of the present findings regarding both the JD-R model and occupational safety research were discussed.

  9. A forecast of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and demand in typhoid endemic low- and middle-income countries to support vaccine introduction policy and decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogasale, Vittal; Ramani, Enusa; Park, Il Yeon; Lee, Jung Seok

    2017-09-02

    A Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) is expected to acquire WHO prequalification soon, which will pave the way for its use in many low- and middle-income countries where typhoid fever is endemic. Thus it is critical to forecast future vaccine demand to ensure supply meets demand, and to facilitate vaccine policy and introduction planning. We forecasted introduction dates for countries based on specific criteria and estimated vaccine demand by year for defined vaccination strategies in 2 scenarios: rapid vaccine introduction and slow vaccine introduction. In the rapid introduction scenario, we forecasted 17 countries and India introducing TCV in the first 5 y of the vaccine's availability while in the slow introduction scenario we forecasted 4 countries and India introducing TCV in the same time period. If the vaccine is targeting infants in high-risk populations as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand peaks around 40 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. Similarly, if the vaccine is targeting infants in the general population as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand increases to 160 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. The demand forecast projected here is an upper bound estimate of vaccine demand, where actual demand depends on various factors such as country priorities, actual vaccine introduction, vaccination strategies, Gavi financing, costs, and overall product profile. Considering the potential role of TCV in typhoid control globally; manufacturers, policymakers, donors and financing bodies should work together to ensure vaccine access through sufficient production capacity, early WHO prequalification of the vaccine, continued Gavi financing and supportive policy.

  10. Ulysses breaks latitude record

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-06-01

    Ulysses is gathering important new information concerning the Sun and its environment. Its prime mission objective is to carry out the first systematic exploration of the inner part of the heliosphere - the region of space carved out of the interstellar medium by the solar wind - at all latitudes from the solar equator to the poles. The spacecraft, launched by the space shuttle Discovery on 6 October 1990 in the framework of an ESA-NASA collaborative venture, underwent a gravity assist manoeuvre at Jupiter in February 1992 and is now in a highly inclined solar orbit that will bring it over the south pole of the Sun in September 1994. At that time, Ulysses will establish a new record as it climbs to its maximum latitude of just over 80 degrees. The spacecraft and its scientific instruments are in excellent condition and the data coverage since launch has been consistently close to 100% thanks to the dedicated efforts of the joint ESA-NASA Mission Operations Team and NASA's Deep Space Network. Although the most exciting phase of the mission - the study of the Sun's polar regions - will only begin in mid-1994, Ulysses has already produced a wealth of new scientific results. These include : * - The first direct detection of neutral helium atoms arriving from interstellar space. * - The measurement of micron-sized dust grains arriving from interstellar space. * - The first measurement of singly-charged H, N, O and Ne ions which entered the heliosphere as interstellar neutral atoms and were then ionised. * - The highest-resolution measurements to date of the isotopic composition of cosmic ray nuclei (e.g. C, N, O, Ne, Si and Mg). In addition to the above, the traversal of Jupiter's magnetosphere at the time of the fly-by enabled the Ulysses investigators to acquire new and highly valuable data concerning this very complex and dynamic plasma environment. Among the more exciting results to emerge are the possible entry into the polar cap of Jupiter's magnetosphere near the

  11. The construction of a decision tool to analyse local demand and local supply for GP care using a synthetic estimation model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaf-Ruizendaal, W.A. de; Bakker, D.H. de

    2013-01-01

    Background: This study addresses the growing academic and policy interest in the appropriate provision of local healthcare services to the healthcare needs of local populations to increase health status and decrease healthcare costs. However, for most local areas information on the demand for primar

  12. The Effects of Job Demands and Low Job Control on Work-Family Conflict: The Role of Fairness in Decision Making and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pekkarinen, Laura; Sinervo, Timo; Kouvonen, Anne

    2008-01-01

    The present study examined whether perceptions of organizational fairness (the procedural and interactional components) were able to diminish the negative effects of high job demands and low job control on the balance between work and family. The study participants were 713 women working in long-term care for elderly people in Finland. The results…

  13. Optimality of cycle time and inventory decisions in a two echelon inventory system with exponential price dependent demand under credit period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krugon, Seelam; Nagaraju, Dega

    2017-05-01

    This work describes and proposes an two echelon inventory system under supply chain, where the manufacturer offers credit period to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The model is framed as demand is expressed as exponential function of retailer’s unit selling price. Mathematical model is framed to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. The major objective of the paper is to provide trade credit concept from the manufacturer to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The retailer would like to delay the payments of the manufacturer. At the first stage retailer and manufacturer expressions are expressed with the functions of ordering cost, carrying cost, transportation cost. In second stage combining of the manufacturer and retailer expressions are expressed. A MATLAB program is written to derive the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. From the optimality criteria derived managerial insights can be made. From the research findings, it is evident that the total cost of the supply chain is decreased with the increase in credit period under exponential price dependent demand. To analyse the influence of the model parameters, parametric analysis is also done by taking with help of numerical example.

  14. Information Demand Pattern for Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Dirk Stamer; Kurt Sandkuhl; Veronika Zeiner

    2016-01-01

    Modern organizations face the challenge of having to manage an increasing amount of information. The resulting information overload leads more and more to problems in decision making with potentially negative economic consequences. Decision-makers and knowledge intensive workers are especially affected. To address this problem, information demand patterns were proposed which capture organizational knowledge about the information demand of single roles. This work extends the concept of informa...

  15. Assessing Competing Demands and Charting a Course: A Phenomenological Study of Advanced Placement U.S. History Teachers' Decision Making and Course Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Kerry D.

    2014-01-01

    Florida has experienced some of the greatest growth of Advanced Placement (AP) programs in recent years and student scores on the AP exams have evolved into a highly significant metric in evaluating student proficiency and teacher and school effectiveness. Despite this growth, it is not well known how AP teachers make decisions about the content…

  16. Managers’ Interview Decisions about Older Job Applicants: Effects of Human Capital-Related Characteristics, General Economic Conditions, and Changes in Job Demands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Mulders, J.; Henkens, K.; Liu, Y.; Schippers, J.J.; Wang, M.

    2016-01-01

    Older job applicants are vulnerable to stereotype related bias in the recruitment process. In the current study, we examined how managers’ job in terview invitation decisions regarding older job applicants are influenced by a pplicants’ human capital-related characteristics, general economic conditi

  17. Assessing Competing Demands and Charting a Course: A Phenomenological Study of Advanced Placement U.S. History Teachers' Decision Making and Course Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Kerry D.

    2014-01-01

    Florida has experienced some of the greatest growth of Advanced Placement (AP) programs in recent years and student scores on the AP exams have evolved into a highly significant metric in evaluating student proficiency and teacher and school effectiveness. Despite this growth, it is not well known how AP teachers make decisions about the content…

  18. DEMAND AND PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA MARIA

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Studying the consumer’s behavior by the ordinal approach of utility with the help of indifference curves allows us to deduce the two “movement laws of demand” in this chapter: the demand for a “normal” good is decreasing function of its price and an increasing function of income. We will use the elasticity concept to measure the intensity of the relation that is established between the demand, on the one hand, and prices or income, on the other hand: elasticity – price, direct and crossed, and elasticity – income. We can classify the goods in many categories, depending on the values that this elasticity takes. The demand elasticity can be determined depending on price and income. It reflects the proportion in which the demand for different products changes with the modification of the consumers’ income, the other factors remaining constant. The elasticity compared to the income is a demonstration of legality from the consumer’s sphere, which determines a certain hierarchy of the needs of each population category in a certain level of income. The movement of prices orients both the options and decisions of producers, namely the most useful productions and the most efficient investments, as well as the consumers’ options and decisions on the most advantageous buying of goods and services that they need. The prices appear as a “signal system” coordinating and making coherence the economic agents’ decisions – producers, consumers and population.

  19. Information Demand Pattern for Teams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Stamer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Modern organizations face the challenge of having to manage an increasing amount of information. The resulting information overload leads more and more to problems in decision making with potentially negative economic consequences. Decision-makers and knowledge intensive workers are especially affected. To address this problem, information demand patterns were proposed which capture organizational knowledge about the information demand of single roles. This work extends the concept of information demand patterns from single roles to teams. Using the knowledge intensive field of project management, the paper shows how to apply the concept of information demand patterns for a whole team. The contributions of this work are (1 the methodical approach to develop information demand patterns for teams, (2 an actual information demand pattern for a steering committee in the context of project management, (3 reflections on the differences between role patterns and team patterns.

  20. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  1. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  2. Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern : The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.; Uiterkamp, A. J. M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses the electricity demand pattern in the relatively temperate climate of the Netherlands (latitude 52 degrees 30'N). Daily electricity demand and average temperature during the period from 1970 until 2007 are investigated for possible trends in the temperature dependence of electric

  3. Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern : The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.; Uiterkamp, A. J. M. Schoot

    This study assesses the electricity demand pattern in the relatively temperate climate of the Netherlands (latitude 52 degrees 30'N). Daily electricity demand and average temperature during the period from 1970 until 2007 are investigated for possible trends in the temperature dependence of

  4. Decision Method of Products Sold on Credit in Declining Period based on the Measurement of Demand Shifting%基于需求转移测度的衰退期产品赊销决策方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙庆文; 石旭辉; 栾晓慧

    2015-01-01

    According to customer choice behavior theory, this thesis established a demand shifting model on the basis of implementing dynamic and differential pricing strategy for different credit rating customers, and solved cash and credit demand of each credit rating in every price adjustment period.Then, the optimal decision model was set up by analyzing the effects of credit risk cost, the probability of credit discrimination and the probability of business opportunity on total income.By case analysis, it pointed out the effects of demand shifting on profit evaluation and credit decision, which helps the enterprise to grasp the best time to launch credit.%本文依据顾客选择行为理论,在赊销企业对不同信用等级客户实行动态差别定价的基础上,构建需求转移模型,求解不同价格调整期间各信用等级客户分别以现销和赊销两种销售方式购买的需求量;同时,通过综合分析赊销信用风险成本、信用等级判别概率及商机存在概率对企业总收益估测的影响,构建赊销决策优化模型。在此基础上,本文进一步利用案例分析指出需求转移程度对赊销收益估测及决策的影响,为企业推出赊销的最佳时机提供了决策参考。

  5. 卫生信息平台管理决策支持系统需求分析%Demand Analysis of Decision Support System about Health Information Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王春容; 李道苹

    2012-01-01

    需求分析在系统分析和设计过程中占有重要地位,是决定系统开发能否成功的关键因素之一.为设计出满足卫生管理人员需求的决策支持系统,对系统用户和部门组织结构等进行了分析,详细介绍了卫生管理决策所需的信息内容及信息来源,并对系统的决策功能需求进行了探讨.%Demand analysis plays an important role in the process of system analysis and design, which is one of the key factors of success. In order to design a decision support system to meet the needs for health management, the paper analyzes the users and department organization structure, and introduces the information content and information source for the health management decision-making- Finally, it discusses the decision-making function requirement of system.

  6. An inventory model of two-warehouse system with variable demand dependent on instantaneous displayed stock and marketing decisions via hybrid RCGA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Bhunia

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a single item deterministic inventory model with two separate warehouses called owned warehouse/show-room (OW and rented warehouse (RW is developed. The proposed model of this paper also considers a realistic assumption regarding the storage capacity of the rented warehouse. Demand is a function of selling price, advertisement of an item and displayed inventory level in OW. The stocks of RW are shipped to OW under bulk release pattern where shortages are not allowed. We discuss different scenarios of the proposed model to address relative size of stock dependency parameters and the capacity of owned warehouse. For each scenario, the corresponding problem is formulated as a constrained mixed integer nonlinear programming problem with three integer and two non-integer variables and a real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA is developed to solve the resulted problem. The proposed model of the paper is also examined using some numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed.

  7. Optimal ordering decisions for garment supply chain with demand information updating%需求信息更新下服装供应链的最优订货决策研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡觉亮; 孔云鹏; 韩曙光; 杨旭东

    2012-01-01

    为了帮助服装零售商成功地应对不确定的服装产品市场需求,研究了需求信息更新下服装供应链的最优订货决策.从一个由供应商和零售商组成的服装产品二级供应链出发,研究服装零售商如何根据服装产品销售期的特点,结合需求信息的更新状况,在1个销售期内进行合理订货.在分析比较了零售商只进行一次订货和三次订货的策略后,结果显示零售商进行三次订货时的效益会有明显提高;并且销售期开始前零售商对市场需求的预测准确性对供应链效率有很大的影响.%To help garment retailers successfully cope with the uncertainty of market demand on garment products, optimal ordering decisions for the supply chain with demand information updating are studied. Starting from the second supply chain consisting of suppliers and retailers, how to place reasonable orders for a retailer in a sales period is discussed based on the selling cycle characteristics of garment products and demand information updating. After comparing the strategy of one-time-ordering with three-time-ordering, it shows that three-time-ordering is more profitable and the accuracy of the market demand forecast made by retailers before the start of sales period have great influence on garment supply chain benefit.

  8. Demanding Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguntoyinbo, Lekan

    2010-01-01

    It was the kind of crisis most universities dread. In November 2006, a group of minority student leaders at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) threatened to sue the university if administrators did not heed demands that included providing more funding for multicultural student groups. This article discusses how this threat…

  9. The active learning hypothesis of the job-demand-control model: an experimental examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häusser, Jan Alexander; Schulz-Hardt, Stefan; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The active learning hypothesis of the job-demand-control model [Karasek, R. A. 1979. "Job Demands, Job Decision Latitude, and Mental Strain: Implications for Job Redesign." Administration Science Quarterly 24: 285-307] proposes positive effects of high job demands and high job control on performance. We conducted a 2 (demands: high vs. low) × 2 (control: high vs. low) experimental office workplace simulation to examine this hypothesis. Since performance during a work simulation is confounded by the boundaries of the demands and control manipulations (e.g. time limits), we used a post-test, in which participants continued working at their task, but without any manipulation of demands and control. This post-test allowed for examining active learning (transfer) effects in an unconfounded fashion. Our results revealed that high demands had a positive effect on quantitative performance, without affecting task accuracy. In contrast, high control resulted in a speed-accuracy tradeoff, that is participants in the high control conditions worked slower but with greater accuracy than participants in the low control conditions.

  10. Dimensional structure of the demand control support questionnaire: a Brazilian context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hökerberg, Yara Hahr Marques; Aguiar, Odaleia Barbosa; Reichenheim, Michael; Faerstein, Eduardo; Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus; Passos, Sonia Regina Lambert

    2010-04-01

    According to Karasek, job strain results from an interaction between high demands and low decision latitude. To reassess the dimensional structure and evaluate the internal consistency of demand control support questionnaire (DCSQ), a shortened version of job content questionnaire that was not sufficiently evaluated in validation studies. The study investigated 825 workers who completed the DCSQ in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; to 399 workers, the questionnaire was self-administered at a hospital (2004-2005), and 426 workers were interviewed at nine restaurants (2006-2007). Confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation models was used to test theoretical structure of dimensionality. Internal consistency was evaluated by composite reliability and convergent validity by average variance extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the instrument in three dimensions: demands, skill discretion and decision authority. The best fit model was achieved by removing social support at work and the item repetitive work (skill discretion). A cross-loading from learning new things on demands and an error measurement correlation between work fast and work intense were confirmed. Composite reliability was acceptable for all dimensions, except for demands (0.58), which also showed inadequate average variance extracted (0.32). This final model was confirmed in separate analyses according to work setting, but the loadings of demands were lower for restaurant workers. Our results indicated that skill discretion and decision authority formed two distinct dimensions. Additionally, the item repetitive work should be removed, as well as one of the items work fast or work intense (demands). Future research is still required to confirm these findings.

  11. Consumer demand for caesarean sections in Brazil: informed decision making, patient choice, or social inequality? A population based birth cohort study linking ethnographic and epidemiological methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béhague, Dominique P; Victora, Cesar G; Barros, Fernando C

    2002-04-20

    To investigate why some women prefer caesarean sections and how decisions to medicalise birthing are influenced by patients, doctors, and the sociomedical environment. Population based birth cohort study, using ethnographic and epidemiological methods. Epidemiological study: women living in the urban area of Pelotas, Brazil who gave birth in hospital during the study. Ethnographic study: subsample of 80 women selected at random from the birth cohort. Nineteen medical staff were interviewed. 5304 women who gave birth in any of the city's hospitals in 1993. Birth by caesarean section or vaginal delivery. In both samples women from families with higher incomes and higher levels of education had caesarean sections more often than other women. Many lower to middle class women sought caesarean sections to avoid what they considered poor quality care and medical neglect, resulting from social prejudice. These women used medicalised prenatal and birthing health care to increase their chance of acquiring a caesarean section, particularly if they had social power in the home. Both social power and women's behaviour towards seeking medicalised health care remained significantly associated with type of birth after controlling for family income and maternal education. Fear of substandard care is behind many poor women's preferences for a caesarean section. Variables pertaining to women's role in the process of redefining and negotiating medical risks were much stronger correlates of caesarean section rates than income or education. The unequal distribution of medical technology has altered concepts of good and normal birthing. Arguments supporting interventionist birthing for all on the basis of equal access to health care must be reviewed.

  12. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... the high rate of exit seen in the first years of exporting. Finally, when faced with multiple countries in which to export, some firms will choose to sequentially export in order to slowly learn more about its chances for success in untested markets....

  13. Latitudes: new Indian transnational cinema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarejo, Amy

    2014-01-01

    This article examines films and video art that speak to conditions of exile and displacement, including the work of Mona Hatoum, Sonali Gulati, and Onir. It proposes the term "latitude" to interrogate the aesthetic and formal properties of these artworks, seeking to understand how lesbian and same-sex eroticism and identities are central to their efficacy.

  14. 潜在市场需求不确定下的风险厌恶供应链决策%Risk-Aversion Supply Chain Decisions under Potential Market Demand Uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡新平; 邓腾腾

    2014-01-01

    When a new product is put into market , it is necessary to consider supply chain risk aversion under the uncertainty of market demands .For such a problem , a utility function for manufacturers and re-tailers is constructed.Also, based on advertising cost, levels of service, and selling prices, an optimal short-term decision-making model is established .Then, with the model, effects of the demand risk and the risk tolerance level of members in a supply chain on the optimal short-term decisions for the supply chain is analyzed .Through numerical simulation , the optimal long-term decisions for a supply chain are also ana-lyzed .Results indicate that the optimal advertising cost is a monotonically increasing function of demand risk and a monotonically decreasing function of risk tolerance level .The best selling price and the optimal service level , as differing from an industry to another and other factors , are U-shape or inverted U-shape with the change of demand risk and risk tolerance level .The selling price and the service level need to make different adjustments in different conditions of market when the circumstance of market is changing . The adjustment of advertising cost has nothing to do with the market features .In the long run , the manu-facturers can achieve the utility maximization , while the retailer can only make the utility suboptimal .%考虑新产品投入市场时潜在市场需求不确定下的供应链风险厌恶,构造了一个考虑制造商和零售商的效用函数,建立了基于广告费用、服务水平以及销售价格的最优短期决策模型,分析了需求风险和供应链成员风险容忍水平对供应链最优短期决策的影响,采用数值仿真分析了供应链最优长期决策。研究结果表明:最优广告费用分别是需求风险和风险容忍水平的单调递增和递减函数,最优销售价格和服务水平则因行业等因素不同与需求风险和风险容忍水平呈U型或倒U型

  15. Latitude, birth date, and allergy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Wjst

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The space and time distribution of risk factors for allergic diseases may provide insights into disease mechanisms. Allergy is believed to vary by month of birth, but multinational studies taking into account latitude have not been conducted. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A questionnaire was distributed in 54 centres to a representative sample of 20- to 44-y-old men and women mainly in Europe but also including regions in North Africa, India, North America, Australia, and New Zealand. Data from 200,682 participants were analyzed. The median prevalence of allergic rhinitis was 22%, with a substantial variation across centres. Overall, allergic rhinitis decreased with geographical latitude, but there were many exceptions. No increase in prevalence during certain winters could be observed. Also, no altered risk by birth month was found, except borderline reduced risks in September and October. Effect estimates obtained by a multivariate analysis of total and specific IgE values in 18,085 individuals also excluded major birth month effects and confirmed the independent effect of language grouping. CONCLUSION: Neither time point of first exposure to certain allergens nor early infections during winter months seems to be a major factor for adult allergy. Although there might be effects of climate or environmental UV exposure by latitude, influences within language groups seem to be more important, reflecting so far unknown genetic or cultural risk factors.

  16. High Latitude Mottling on Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The familiar banded appearance of Jupiter at low and middle latitudes gradually gives way to a more mottled appearance at high latitudes in this striking true color image taken Dec. 13, 2000, by NASA's Cassini spacecraft.The intricate structures seen in the polar region are clouds of different chemical composition, height and thickness. Clouds are organized by winds, and the mottled appearance in the polar regions suggests more vortex-type motion and winds of less vigor at higher latitudes.The cause of this difference is not understood. One possible contributor is that the horizontal component of the Coriolis force, which arises from the planet's rotation and is responsible for curving the trajectories of ocean currents and winds on Earth, has its greatest effect at high latitudes and vanishes at the equator. This tends to create small, intense vortices at high latitudes on Jupiter. Another possibility may lie in that fact that Jupiter overall emits nearly as much of its own heat as it absorbs from the Sun, and this internal heat flux is very likely greater at the poles. This condition could lead to enhanced convection at the poles and more vortex-type structures. Further analysis of Cassini images, including analysis of sequences taken over a span of time, should help us understand the cause of equator-to-pole differences in cloud organization and evolution.By the time this picture was taken, Cassini had reached close enough to Jupiter to allow the spacecraft to return images with more detail than what's possible with the planetary camera on NASA's Earth-orbiting Hubble Space Telescope. The resolution here is 114 kilometers (71 miles) per pixel. This contrast-enhanced, edge-sharpened frame was composited from images take at different wavelengths with Cassini's narrow-angle camera, from a distance of 19 million kilometers (11.8 million miles). The spacecraft was in almost a direct line between the Sun and Jupiter, so the solar illumination on Jupiter is almost full

  17. Relationship between Latitude and Melanoma in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocetti, Emanuele; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Chiarugi, Alessandra; Nardini, Paolo; Pimpinelli, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Objective. Evaluate the ecological relationship between skin melanoma epidemiology and latitude in Italy. Methods. We used data from the Italian network of cancer registries (Airtum). In a Poisson model, we evaluated the effect on incidence, mortality, and survival of latitude, adjusting for some demographic, social, phenotypic, and behavioural variables. Results. Incidence increased in Italy by 17% for each degree of increase in latitude. The effect of latitude was statistically significantly present also adjusting for other variables (incidence rate ratio = 1.08). The effect of latitude on increasing mortality (mortality rate ratio = 1.27) and improving survival (relative excess risk of death = 0.93) was no longer present in the multivariate model. Conclusion. Melanoma incidence, mortality, and survival vary in Italy according to latitude. After adjustment for several confounders, incidence still grows with growing latitude. Presumably, latitude expresses other variables that might be related to individual susceptibility and/or local care.

  18. 商誉和价格影响需求的易逝品动态定价与广告决策%Dynamic pricing and advertising decision of perishable item with goodwill-and-price-dependent demand

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李建启; 路立浩

    2016-01-01

    研究需求受价格和商誉共同影响下易逝品动态定价与广告投资策略的联合决策问题. 在初始库存确定的情形下,在某待定销售周期内,企业通过投入广告提升自身商誉从而拓宽市场,以企业利润最大化为目标,建立联合最优动态定价及广告投资策略模型. 应用庞特里亚金极大值原理,求得不同系统参数下最优动态定价和广告投资策略及最优的销售周期. 通过数值算例验证方法的有效性,结合参数灵敏度分析检验系统参数对最优策略的影响并给出相应管理意义.%The joint decision problem is studied of dynamic pricing and advertising decision of perishable item with demand influenced by price and goodwill. The model of joint optimal dynamic pricing and advertising investment strategy is established under the conditions that the initial inventory is defined, the sales period is predetermined, the enterprise can expand the market by putting into advertising to enhance its goodwill, and the aim is maximizing profit. The optimal dynamic pricing and advertising investment strategy and the optimal sales cycle are obtained under different system parameters by applying Pontryagin maximum principle. The validity of the model is verified through numerical example method. The influence of system parameters on the optimal strategy is analyzed combining parameter sensitivity analysis, and the corresponding management significance is also given.

  19. Two-echelon Supply Chain Decision Model with Price-and-Carbon-Emission Dependent Demand%需求依赖于价格和碳排放的两层供应链决策模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄妍

    2015-01-01

    As consumers’environmental awareness is growing,the impact of carbon emission on the demand is increasingly apparent. Based on price-and-carbon-emission dependent demand ,we construct a two-echelon decision model consists of a manufacturer and a retailer. In this model,the manufacturer decides the wholesale price and emissions per unit of output produced,while the retailer decides the retail price and order quantity. We solve the model under the centralized and decentralized scenarios and propose a coordination contract that can improve profits of both sides and realize the perfect coordination of both sides. Through numerical examples we find that as the impact of carbon emission on demand increases,the strategies of both the manufacturer and retailer change obviously,also we validate the effectiveness of the contract.%随着消费者环保意识的增强,产品碳排放量对需求的影响愈发显著。基于价格和碳排放量灵敏需求,构造了一个由制造商和零售商组成的两层决策模型。模型中,上游制造商决策批发价格和产品碳排放水平,而下游零售商决策零售价格和订货批量。在分散和集中决策模式下,分别求解该模型并基于集中决策模式提出了协调契约,以实现两方利润的帕累托改善。最后,在实例数据下,发现在上述两种情形下,随着碳排放对需求影响的增大,上下游的决策都有明显的变化,并且验证了契约的有效性。

  20. On-Demand Special Use Airspace Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We design and develope a Decision Support Tool (DST) that supports On-Demand Special Use Airspace (SUA) scheduling and flight plan optimization around SUA between...

  1. On-Demand Special Use Airspace Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We design and develop a Decision Support Tool (DST) that supports On-Demand Special Use Airspace (SUA) scheduling and flight plan optimization around SUA between...

  2. Saving Electricity and Demand Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki

    A lot of people lost their lives in the tremendous earthquake in Tohoku region on March 11. A large capacity of electric power plants in TEPCO area was also damaged and large scale power shortage in this summer is predicted. In this situation, electricity customers are making great effort to save electricity to avoid planned outage. Customers take actions not only by their selves but also by some customers' cooperative movements. All actions taken actually are based on responses to request form the government or voluntary decision. On the other hand, demand response based on a financial stimulus is not observed as an actual behavior. Saving electricity by this demand response only discussed in the newspapers. In this commentary, the events regarding electricity-saving measure after this disaster are described and the discussions on demand response, especially a raise in power rate, are put into shapes in the context of this electricity supply-demand gap.

  3. Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

    OpenAIRE

    Freitas, Miguel Lebre de; Veiga, Francisco José

    2006-01-01

    We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimising model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case Currency Substitution decisions and Asset Substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency subst...

  4. Relative effects of demand and control on task-related cardiovascular reactivity, task perceptions, performance accuracy, and mood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Niamh; James, Jack E

    2009-05-01

    The hypothesis that work control has beneficial effects on well-being is the basis of the widely applied, yet inconsistently supported, Job Demand Control (JDC) Model [Karasek, R.A., 1979. Job demands, job decision latitude and mental strain: Implications for job redesign. Adm. Sci. Q. 24, 285-308.; Karasek, R., Theorell, T., 1990. Healthy Work: Stress, Productivity, and the Reconstruction of Working Life. Basic Books, Oxford]. The model was tested in an experiment (N=60) using a cognitive stressor paradigm that sought to prevent confounding between demand and control. High-demand was found to be associated with deleterious effects on physiological, subjective, and performance outcomes. In contrast, few main effects were found for control. Evidence for the buffer interpretation of the JDC Model was limited to a significant demand-control interaction for performance accuracy, whereas substantial support was found for the strain interpretation of the model [van der Doef, M., Maes, S., 1998. The job demand-control(-support) model and physical health outcomes: A review of the strain and buffer hypotheses. Psychol. Health 13, 909-936., van der Doef, M., Maes, S., 1999. The Job Demand-Control(-Support) model and psychological well-being: A review of 20 years of empirical research. Work Stress 13, 87-114]. Manipulation checks revealed that objective control altered perceptions of control but not perceptions of demand. It is suggested that beneficial effects of work-related control are unlikely to occur in the absence of reductions in perceived demand. Thus, contrary to the propositions of Karasek and colleagues, demand and control do not appear to be independent factors.

  5. THE DEMAND DISRUPTION MANAGEMENT PROBLEM FOR A SUPPLY CHAIN SYSTEM WITH NONLINEAR DEMAND FUNCTIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Minghui XU; Xiangtong QI; Gang YU; Hanqin ZHANG; Chengxiu GAO

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of handling the uncertainty of demand in aone-supplier-one-retailer supply chain system. Demand variation often makes the real productiondifferent from what is originally planned, causing a deviation cost from the production plan. Assumethe market demand is sensitive to the retail price in a nonlinear form, we show how to effectivelyhandle the demand uncertainty in a supply chain, both for the case of centralized-decision-makingsystem and the case of decentralized-decision-making system with perfect coordination.

  6. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2005-01-01

    Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... as the basis for measurement. This paper presents the case against both objections. First, if one is interested in learning whether decisions about building transport infrastructure are based on reliable information, then it is exactly the traffic forecasted at the time of making the decision to build...... in travel demand forecasts are likely to be conservatively biased, i.e., accuracy in travel demand forecasts estimated from such samples would likely be higher than accuracy in travel demand forecasts in the project population. This bias must be taken into account when interpreting the results from...

  7. Low-latitude ionospheric effects on SBAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, J.; Sardón, E.; Sainz, A.; Ochoa, B.; Magdaleno, S.

    2016-06-01

    Satellite-based augmentation systems (SBAS) provide augmentation to Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) users in three areas: (1) broadcasting accurate corrections to GNSS satellite ephemeris, (2) providing a real-time empirical ionospheric model in the service area, and (3) providing integrity information in the form of estimates of the confidence of the ephemeris corrections and ionospheric delays. Ionospheric effects on SBAS are twofold: (a) the input data used by the SBAS will be affected by ionospheric effects, and (b) the more perturbed the ionosphere is, the more difficult it will be to provide accurate and reliable ionospheric information to the users. The ionosphere at low latitudes presents larger variability and more intense phenomena than at midlatitudes. Therefore, SBAS providing service to low-latitude regions will be more affected than those at other latitudes. From the different low-latitude ionospheric effects, this paper will focus on those having the largest impact on SBAS, which are total electron content temporal and spatial gradients, ionospheric scintillations, and depletions. This paper will present the impact of these effects on EGNOS (European Global Navigation Overlay System), the European SBAS. Although EGNOS can be considered as a midlatitude SBAS, it has to provide coverage down to rather low latitudes, so sometimes low-latitude ionospheric effects are observed in the EGNOS data. It will be shown how EGNOS performs under nominal conditions and how its performance is degraded when low-latitude ionospheric phenomena occur. Real EGNOS data affected by low-latitude ionospheric phenomena will be used.

  8. Demand Forecasting Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James

    2005-01-01

    Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand fore...

  9. Warming: mechanism and latitude dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yury

    2010-05-01

    flows distribution with respect the Earth's hemispheres in first caused by eccentric position of the Earth core with respect to the mantle (displaced in present geological epoch in direction to Brasil). Of course the asymmetric distribution of heat loss is a long-term phenomenon in the geological history. But in present epoch due to drift of the core to the North we must observe some increasing of the heat flow of the Northern hemisphere and decreasing of the heat flow of the Southern hemisphere. In reality mentioned changes of heat flows are contrast (asymmetrical) and can have general tendency of increasing heat flows in both hemispheres (due to activization of relative oscillations of the core and mantle relatively polar axis). Contrast secular warming of Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth in present epoch. Dependence of warming from latitude. And warm flows are asymmetrically, more intensively warm is redistributed in northern hemisphere of the Earth and less intensively in a southern hemisphere. From here it follows, that the phenomenon of more intensive warming up of northern hemisphere, rather than southern in present period should be observed. Data of climatic observations (in first temperature trends for various latitude belts). More detailed analysis shows, that the phenomenon of warming in different form is shown in various latitudinal belts of the Earth. This phenomenon is more clearly shown in latitudinal belts further situated on latitude from South Pole, i.e. in high northern latitudes. Really, the trend of increase of temperature in northern hemisphere is characterized by greater rate, than a trend of temperature in a southern hemisphere. And not only trend components of temperatures increase with increasing of latitudes from southern pole to northern pole, but also amplitudes of decade fluctuations of temperature in high northern breadthes are more bigger than in southern hemisphere. Thus again it is necessary to expect a contrast and

  10. Tidi Observations Relating to High Latitude Aeronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gell, D.; Niciejewski, R.; Killeen, T.; Wu, Q.; Skinner, W.; Solomon, S.; Ortland, D.; Kafkalidis, J.; Gablehouse, D.; Johnson, R.

    2003-12-01

    Unique observations of the horizontal neutral winds at high latitudes in the altitude range 60 to 180 km have been performed by TIDI (Thermosphere Ionosphere Doppler Interferometer) since January 2002. The satellite orbit is such that the TIDI field of view includes latitudes to both the north pole and the south pole. Though high latitude neutral wind measurements have been obtained from space with the DE-2 satellite and the UARS satellite, TIDI is the first instrument to sample the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere up to and including both polar regions on a long-term basis. Ground based studies have previously reported a strong semi-diurnal tide in the mesosphere over Resolute, Canada. This paper will describe the climatology that has been obtained by the TIDI instrument since early 2002 for high latitudes. The precession rate of TIMED supports two month averaging of data sets in order to sample all local solar time.

  11. The SDSS High Latitude Cloud Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGehee, P. M.

    2009-01-01

    The high latitude clouds (|b| > 30) are primarily translucent molecular clouds and diffuse Galactic cirrus with the majority of them seen at high latitude simply due to their proximity to the Sun. The rare exceptions are those, like the Draco and other intermediate or high velocity clouds, found significantly above or below the Galactic plane. To date, star formation has only been verified in MBM 12 and MBM 20, which are two of the densest high latitude molecular clouds. We present results from an ongoing study of high latitude clouds based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS). This study consists of two major efforts, the first (described here) to provide a 3-D mapping of the interstellar dust using a color-excess technique, the second to identify candidate low-mass Classical T Tauri stars in the field.

  12. Low Latitude Aurora: Index of Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekli, M. R.; Aissani, D.; Chadou, I.

    2010-10-01

    Observations of aurora borealis at low latitudes are rare, and are clearly associated with high solar activity. In this paper, we analyze some details of the solar activity during the years 1769-1792. Moreover, we describe in detail three low latitude auroras. The first event was reported by ash-Shalati and observed in North Africa (1770 AD). The second and third events were reported by l'Abbé Mann and observed in Europe (1770 and 1777 AD).

  13. A Water Demand Curve for Rice Paddy Field

    OpenAIRE

    佐藤, 豊信

    1989-01-01

    Demand for water use in rice paddy fields in Japan has traditionally been measured according to a unit known as "Gensuishin" However, it does not consider farmer decisions on how much water to use in rice production, while the quantity of water measured by "Gensuishin" takes into account biologocal and physical conditions. This paper reports that analysis of water demand in rice production ought to incorporate a farmer's subjective equilibrium and water demand quantity. The water demand cu...

  14. Quiet time enhancements over African latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orford, Nicola; Katamzi, Zama; Buresova, Dalia

    2016-07-01

    F2 layer disturbances not related to geomagnetic activity are known as quiet time enhancements (QTEs). The phenomenon of QTEs has not yet been studied over African latitudes. We therefore explore the occurrence of QTEs over Africa in order to expand our knowledge on the behaviour of the ionosphere over this region. Several GPS stations in the middle to equatorial latitudes, during the solar minimum (2009) and near solar maximum (2013), are used. This data was examined for possible trends in variation with solar cycle, season and latitude as well as time of commencement of enhancements. Over the southern mid-latitude region of Africa we have observed that the QTEs are more likely to commence during the night in both solar minimum and maximum, however a slightly larger portion of daytime commencements during solar minimum than during solar maximum were observed. The total number of enhancements for the solar minimum period appears greater than during solar maximum. A seasonal trend is seen with the maximum number of enhancements occurring in summer during solar minimum and in winter during solar maximum. We explore further whether these trends are mirrored or different at low latitude/equatorial African regions.

  15. Research on cooperative advertising decisions in a dual-channel supply chain under asymmetric demand information%需求信息不对称下的双渠道供应链合作广告投资决策分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨磊; 纪静娜; 张智勇

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the advertising decisions in a dual-channel supply chain involved one manufacturer and one retailer. A Stackelberg game dominated by the manufacturer is established. The influence of asymmetric demand information and dual-channel on the cooperative advertising decisions is analyzed. The study shows that the retailer will lie about the demand when it has demand information advantages. Under certain conditions, the optimal lied strategy would decrease manufacturer's profit but increase the profit of the supply chain. Under such circumstances, the manufacturer could not use the incentive contract to encourage the retailer to share demand information. In addition, when the market share proportion between direct sales channel and distribution channel is less than a certain value, the introduction of direct sales channel can be beneficial to both the supply chain participants under optimal advertising strategies.%研究制造商主导的Stackelberg博弈下双渠道供应链的合作广告策略,分析信息不对称及双渠道对供应链合作广告投资决策的影响.研究表明,零售商在具有需求信息优势时会谎报需求信息,并且在一定条件下其谎报决策会降低制造商的利润,但能提高供应链的利润,这种情况下制造商无法通过激励合同促使零售商共享信息.另外,在最优合作广告策略下,当直销渠道与分销渠道所占市场份额的分配比例小于一定值时,制造商采取双渠道会使供应链参与者均受益.

  16. Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

  17. Innovation and Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2007-01-01

    the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

  18. What Challenges Manual Workers’ Ability to Cope with Back Pain at Work, and What Influences Their Decision to Call in Sick?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Pernille; Karsten, Mette Marie V.; Indahl, Aage

    2015-01-01

    . Thematic analysis was used for interpretation. Results were matched with the Flags system framework to guide future recommendations. RESULTS: Workers with BP were challenged by poor physical work conditions and a lack of supervisor support/trust (i.e. lack of adjustment latitude). Organization of workers......INTRODUCTION: Although back pain (BP) is a very common cause for sickness absence, most people stay at work during BP episodes. Existing knowledge on the factors influencing the decision to stay at work despite pain is limited. The aim of this study was to explore challenges for coping with BP...... at work and decisive factors for work attendance among workers with high physical work demands. METHODS: Three focus groups (n = 20) were conducted using an explorative inductive method. Participants were public-employed manual workers with high physical work demands. All had personal BP experience...

  19. Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.; Hilgen, F.J.; Tuenter, Erik; Lourens, L.J.

    2015-01-01

    The influence of obliquity, the tilt of the Earth's rotational axis, on incoming solar radiation at low latitudes is small, yet many tropical and subtropical palaeoclimate records reveal a clear obliquity signal. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this signal, such as the remote

  20. Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.; Hilgen, F.J.; Tuenter, Erik; Lourens, L.J.

    2015-01-01

    The influence of obliquity, the tilt of the Earth's rotational axis, on incoming solar radiation at low latitudes is small, yet many tropical and subtropical palaeoclimate records reveal a clear obliquity signal. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this signal, such as the remote influe

  1. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  2. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  3. Divers of Passenger Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Wittmer, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    -Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

  4. A Forecasting Decision Support System

    OpenAIRE

    Sayed, Hanaa E.; Hossam A. Gabbar; Fouad, Soheir A.; Ahmed, Khalil M.; Miyazaki, Shigeji

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays forecasting is needed in many fields such as weather forecasting, population estimation, industry demand forecasting, and many others. As complexity and factors increase, it becomes impossible for a human being to do the prediction operation without support of computer system. A Decision support system is needed to model all demand factors and combine with expert opinions to enhance forecasting accuracy. In this research work, we present a decision support system using winters', simp...

  5. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2005-01-01

    as the basis for measurement. This paper presents the case against both objections. First, if one is interested in learning whether decisions about building transport infrastructure are based on reliable information, then it is exactly the traffic forecasted at the time of making the decision to build......Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... that is of interest. Second, although ideally studies should take into account so-called demand ??ramp up?? over a period of years, the empirical evidence and practical considerations do not support this ideal requirement, at least not for large- N studies. Finally, the paper argues that large samples of inaccuracy...

  6. Paramedic Physical Demands Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    medical bags, cardiac monitor, stretcher, stair chair, etc.) were not standardized across services. As a result the total amount of equipment weight ...report describes the pushing/pulling, walking, and stair climbing demands as observed during the observation periods. Walking demands varied between the...standard deviation about the mean. .................................................................. 25 Figure 7 - The maximum weight (heaviest patient

  7. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  8. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari;

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on causality in demand. A methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co-integrated demand model, not prespecified, is suggested. The methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system. The methodology is applied...... to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...... implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information. The results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large European whitefish market, where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market. Redfish is a substitute on both markets...

  9. 基于决策者风险规避特性的供应链需求信息共享价值分析%Analysis of Supply Chain's Demand Information Sharing Values Based on Decision-Maker's Risk Aversion Characteristics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶飞; 陈晓明; 林强

    2012-01-01

    在随机需求条件下,利用条件风险估值( conditional value-at-risk,CVaR)的风险度量准则建立了供应链的需求信息共享决策模型,着重分析了零售商的风险规避程度以及市场需求的不确定性信息对供应链各决策者以及供应链整体信息共享价值的影响.研究结果表明,需求信息共享价值与零售商的风险规避程度、市场不确定性大小以及市场不确定信息所预测的市场需求变化情况有关.数值分析结果表明,零售商越害怕市场的不确定性风险,需求信息共享越有利于提升分散供应链的运作效率;但当市场信息反映出未来的市场需求是消极且零售商接近风险中性时,供应链的需求信息共享价值反而小于零,此时没有进行信息共享的必要.%In the 21st century, enterprises are competing with each other on supply chain efficiency and effectiveness. Although information integration across supply chain partners is critical to supply chain competitiveness and profitability, its actualization remains challenging because of the prevalent information sharing barriers, such as asymmetric information, bounded rationality, opportunism, risk prevention, etc. The current literature often calculates information sharing values in a supply chain based on the assumption that decision-makers are risk neutral. This paper proposes a new model be built to consider the potential impact of decision makers' risk aversion characteristics. We therefore propose a supply chain demand information-sharing model based conditional value-at-risk criterion under stochastic demand. This paper analyzes how a retailer's risk aversion and demand uncertainty would affect the information sharing value of supply chain. We build a Stackelberg game that considers supplier and retailer as leader and follower. This study assumes that the retailer is able to pay a certain fee to obtain information about demand uncertainty and can decide whether to

  10. Decision on Using of By-Product in the Demand with Preference%基于产出存在偏好的废弃物利用策略研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘娟; 孔令丞

    2012-01-01

    decision and the production decision of the generating company had no association with the ones of the using company. Secondly, when the using company only produced product B, both the generating company's price decision and the production decision and the ones of the using company had no association with the replace of the product B to product R. Thirdly, as the waste rate changed, the enterprise decisions would change. This article could provide the academic basis for the relevant enterprises.

  11. Demand-oriented traffic management for incidents and disasters

    OpenAIRE

    Flötteröd, Yun-Pang; Bieker, Laura

    2012-01-01

    Traffic simulation has been extensively used as a decision support tool for efficient traffic management in daily life. During disasters and incidents, traffic simulation can further help rescue teams to understand the current traffic state and the possible impacts of proposed strategies and then to make proper decisions. At this point, the changes in traffic demand should also be considered in the simulation to reflect the latest traffic state. In this paper, a demand-oriented traffic manage...

  12. Job demand-control and job stress at work: A cross-sectional study among prison staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbari, Jafar; Akbari, Rouhollah; Shakerian, Mahnaz; Mahaki, Behzad

    2017-01-01

    Job stress can impose significant costs to the workplaces and organizations due to some issues such as absenteeism, less productivity, and medical costs. Job overload and lack of decision latitude can lead to job stress. The current study aimed to investigate the job demands and control as predictor of job stress and its relationship, with some of the demographic characteristics of Iranian prison staff. This study was performed on 171 male employees working in four prisons located in Ilam, Iran. The sampling method was census and all four prisons' staff were selected to respond the Job Content Questionnaires. Finally, the data were analyzed using t-test or independent samples test as well as SPSS 20. The highest amount of job demand (mean = 21.28) and the lowest amount of job control on average (9.76) were reported by those staff working in Darehshahr prison. There was also a significant relationship between job post and job control among the prison staff (β = -0.375, P = 0.001). The level of job stress reported by prison staff was high in this study mainly caused by high job demand and low job control, especially in Darehshahr prison staff.

  13. Spacecraft design project: High latitude communications satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josefson, Carl; Myers, Jack; Cloutier, Mike; Paluszek, Steve; Michael, Gerry; Hunter, Dan; Sakoda, Dan; Walters, Wes; Johnson, Dennis; Bauer, Terry

    1989-01-01

    The spacecraft design project was part of AE-4871, Advanced Spacecraft Design. The project was intended to provide experience in the design of all major components of a satellite. Each member of the class was given primary responsibility for a subsystem or design support function. Support was requested from the Naval Research Laboratory to augment the Naval Postgraduate School faculty. Analysis and design of each subsystem was done to the extent possible within the constraints of an eleven week quarter and the design facilities (hardware and software) available. The project team chose to evaluate the design of a high latitude communications satellite as representative of the design issues and tradeoffs necessary for a wide range of satellites. The High-Latitude Communications Satellite (HILACS) will provide a continuous UHF communications link between stations located north of the region covered by geosynchronous communications satellites, i.e., the area above approximately 60 N latitude. HILACS will also provide a communications link to stations below 60 N via a relay Net Control Station (NCS), which is located with access to both the HILACS and geosynchronous communications satellites. The communications payload will operate only for that portion of the orbit necessary to provide specified coverage.

  14. Environmental harshness, latitude and incipient speciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Jason T

    2014-02-01

    Are rates of evolution and speciation fastest where diversity is greatest - the tropics? A commonly accepted theory links the latitudinal diversity gradient to a speciation pump model whereby the tropics produce species at a faster rate than extra-tropical regions. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Botero et al. () test the speciation pump model using subspecies richness patterns for more than 9000 species of birds and mammals as a proxy for incipient speciation opportunity. Rather than using latitudinal centroids, the authors investigate the role of various environmental correlates of latitude as drivers of subspecies richness. Their key finding points to environmental harshness as a positive predictor of subspecies richness. The authors link high subspecies richness in environmental harsh areas to increased opportunities for geographic range fragmentation and/or faster rates of trait evolution as drivers of incipient speciation. Because environmental harshness generally increases with latitude, these results suggest that opportunity for incipient speciation is lowest where species richness is highest. The authors interpret this finding as incompatible with the view of the tropics as a cradle of diversity. Their results are consistent with a growing body of evidence that reproductive isolation and speciation occur fastest at high latitudes.

  15. Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambwera, M.; Folmer, H.

    2007-01-01

    In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey

  16. Fuel switching in Harare : An almost ideal demand system approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

    In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey

  17. Fuel switching in Harare : An almost ideal demand system approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

    2007-01-01

    In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey c

  18. Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambwera, M.; Folmer, H.

    2007-01-01

    In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey c

  19. Domestic Demand Will Work

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    China can invigorate its economy by expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption chinese bankers are preparing to set up finance companies that provide consumer loans in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

  20. Intelligent energy demand forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Wei-Chiang

    2013-01-01

    This book offers approaches and methods to calculate optimal electric energy allocation, using evolutionary algorithms and intelligent analytical tools to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. Focuses on improving the drawbacks of existing algorithms.

  1. Household fuel demand analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohn, S.; Hirst, E.; Jackson, J.

    1976-01-01

    This study develops econometric models of residential demands for electricity, natural gas, and petroleum products. Fuel demands per household are estimated as functions of fuel prices, per capita income, heating degree days, and mean July temperature. Cross-sectional models are developed using a large data base containing observations for each state and year from 1951 through 1974. Long-run own-price elasticities for all three fuels are greater than unity with natural gas showing the greatest sensitivity to own-price changes. Cross-price elasticities are all less than unity except for the elasticity of demand for oil with respect to the price of gas (which is even larger than the own-price elasticity of demand for oil). The models show considerable stabiity with respect to own-price elasticities but much instability with respect to the cross-price and income elasticities.

  2. Impact of Energy Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambel, Ali B.

    1970-01-01

    The types of pollutants associated with the process of power production are identified. A nine-point proposal is presented on the ways the increase in power demands might be achieved with the minimum threat to the environment. (PR)

  3. Effect of Latitude on Vitamin D Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leary, Patrick F; Zamfirova, Ina; Au, Johnathan; McCracken, Ward H

    2017-07-01

    Vitamin D levels have been linked to bone health and to numerous diseases; however, an element that lacks substantial direct data and limits the evidence basis regarding whom to screen for vitamin D deficiency is the effect of latitude on vitamin D levels. To determine whether latitude influences vitamin D levels and to investigate the influence of other factors that may affect vitamin D levels, including sex, race, skin type, and body mass index. Osteopathic medical students were recruited from campuses in Bradenton, Florida, and Erie, Pennsylvania. Surveys were administered to obtain demographic information, and blood samples were drawn to measure total vitamin D levels. Two-sample t tests, Fisher exact test, and logistic regression was used to assess differences in total vitamin D levels between the 2 locations. A total of 359 medical students (aged 22-57 years) were included in the study, 194 at the Bradenton campus and 214 at the Erie campus. The mean (SD) vitamin D level was 34.5 (11.8) ng/mL among participants in Bradenton and 28.1 (12.4) ng/mL among participants in Erie. Logistic regression models revealed an adjusted OR of 3.3 (95% CI, 1.73-6.4) for deficient total vitamin D among Erie students. Non-white race, male sex, and high body mass index were also statistically significant risk factors for vitamin D deficiency in regression models (P<.05). Latitude was found to be a statistically significant risk factor for vitamin D deficiency. Additionally, the findings suggest that persons with darker skin tone and, to a lesser degree, men and persons who are overweight or obese are also at increased risk for vitamin D deficiency. Physicians should be cognizant of these risk factors when deciding whom to screen.

  4. Corotating Interaction Regions at High Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunow, H.; Lee, M. A.; Fisk, L. A.; Forsyth, R. J.; Heber, B.; Horbury, T. S.; Keppler, E.; Kóta, J.; Lou, Y.-Q.; McKibben, R. B.; Paizis, C.; Potgieter, M. S.; Roelof, E. C.; Sanderson, T. R.; Simnett, G. M.; von Steiger, R.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Jokipii, J. R.

    1999-07-01

    Ulysses observed a stable strong CIR from early 1992 through 1994 during its first journey into the southern hemisphere. After the rapid latitude scan in early 1995, Ulysses observed a weaker CIR from early 1996 to mid-1997 in the northern hemisphere as it traveled back to the ecliptic at the orbit of Jupiter. These two CIRs are the observational basis of the investigation into the latitudinal structure of CIRs. The first CIR was caused by an extension of the northern coronal hole into the southern hemisphere during declining solar activity, whereas the second CIR near solar minimum activity was caused by small warps in the streamer belt. The latitudinal structure is described through the presentation of three 26-day periods during the southern CIR. The first at ˜24°S shows the full plasma interaction region including fast and slow wind streams, the compressed shocked flows with embedded stream interface and heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and the forward and reverse shocks with associated accelerated ions and electrons. The second at 40°S exhibits only the reverse shock, accelerated particles, and the 26-day modulation of cosmic rays. The third at 60°S shows only the accelerated particles and modulated cosmic rays. The possible mechanisms for the access of the accelerated particles and the CIR-modulated cosmic rays to high latitudes above the plasma interaction region are presented. They include direct magnetic field connection across latitude due to stochastic field line weaving or to systematic weaving caused by solar differential rotation combined with non-radial expansion of the fast wind. Another possible mechanism is particle diffusion across the average magnetic field, which includes stochastic field line weaving. A constraint on connection to a distant portion of the CIR is energy loss in the solar wind, which is substantial for the relatively slow-moving accelerated ions. Finally, the weaker northern CIR is compared with the southern CIR. It is weak

  5. Saturn Chorus as a Function of Latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menietti, J. D.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Gurnett, D. A.; Shprits, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Not only the dust but also the spatial scale of Saturn, including the background magnetic field inhomogeneity, make the study of whistler mode plasma wave emissions at Saturn quite different from Earth. The significant decrease in chorus intensity nearest the Saturn magnetic equator along a nearly constant L shell has already been reported. In the current study we analyze all known examples of these data and report the collective functional dependence of chorus intensity and wave normal angle, as well as density and magnetic inhomogeneity versus latitude. These values are important in the modeling of pitch angle scattering and possible electron acceleration at Saturn.

  6. Split Decisions, Split Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The lead stories in Nature and Science went in opposite directions this week. Science chose outer space, launching into NASA’s hotly disputed decision to shelve a planned mission to Pluto. Nature plunged into inner space with a story about a report to the European Commission advising against granting “premature” approval to create human embryos for stem-cell research.

  7. China Steel Pipes Demand Rising Steadily

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ Steel pipes industry is an industry to play a decisive role in the national economic development. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the steel pipes output has been increased distinctly. Based on experts forecast,the steel pipes demand in China will still be in tendency of increase during the Eleventh FiveYear Plan period, which will doubtlessly bring new opportunity and challenge to the steel pipes enterprises in China.

  8. Demand sensing in e-business

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K Ravikumar; Atul Saroop; H K Narahari; Pankaj Dayama

    2005-04-01

    In this paper, we identify various models from the optimization and econometrics literature that can potentially help sense customer demand in the e-business era. While modelling reality is a difficult task, many of these models come close to modelling the customer’s decision-making process. We provide a brief overview of these techniques, interspersing the discussion occasionally with a tutorial introduction of the underlying concepts.

  9. Travel Demand Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, Frank [ORNL; Garrow, Dr. Laurie [Georgia Institute of Technology

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes the principal types of both passenger and freight demand models in use today, providing a brief history of model development supported by references to a number of popular texts on the subject, and directing the reader to papers covering some of the more recent technical developments in the area. Over the past half century a variety of methods have been used to estimate and forecast travel demands, drawing concepts from economic/utility maximization theory, transportation system optimization and spatial interaction theory, using and often combining solution techniques as varied as Box-Jenkins methods, non-linear multivariate regression, non-linear mathematical programming, and agent-based microsimulation.

  10. Education on Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Lis; Hende, Merete

    2015-01-01

    Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de to temat......Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de...

  11. Demand Modelling in Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chvalina

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models. 

  12. Owning, letting and demanding second homes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bloze, Gintautas; Skak, Morten

    An increasing number of households consume housing beyond the primary home as owners of a second home. Economic studies of second homeownership are still very scarce, and the present empirical study fills this gap to some extent. It is based on Danish survey data combined with administrative...... register data and presents estimations of the probability of owning a second home, the decision to let the second home and the number of let weeks per year. Also income elasticities for primary and second housing demand are estimated. We find a conventional monotonic increase in demand elasticities...... for primary housing demand for non-owners of second homes; however, owners of second homes have the highest income elasticity in the middle income group....

  13. Policy analysis of electricity demand flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas

    include a clear commitment to develop an "intelligent" energy system that utilises the flexibility potential of the demand side, a coherent policy strategy covering all aspects of the flexibility challenge has not yet been defined. By use of economic models and concepts of policy analysis, this thesis...... failures in the classic economic sense or systemic failures founded in market design, rules and regulations. The analysis covers impacts of failures stemming from incomplete markets for flexibility and inappropriate regulation that distort the observed value or risks of demand flexibility. Furthermore......, it considers various types of transaction costs related to adopting a demand response contract (switching costs) and to activation (monitoring and decision costs). The thesis develops methods to quantify the impacts of these failures and applies them in relation to the Danish case. Switching costs...

  14. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  15. TIDI observations relating to low latitude aeronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niciejewski, R.; Killeen, T.; Kafkalidis, J.; Wu, Q.; Skinner, W.; Solomon, S.; Ortland, D.; Gell, D.; Gablehouse, D.; Johnson, R.

    2003-04-01

    The TIDI instrument aboard the TIMED satellite has been observing the neutral winds in the upper atmosphere on a routine basis since early January 2002. The instrument simultaneously samples the thin limb of the Earth with four separate telescopes providing two forward views and two rearward views, one of each on either side of the orbital path. At equator crossings, these two side views are separated by about 30 degrees of longitude at the tangent point altitude, or 2 hours of local time. Thus, on any orbit TIDI obtains two horizontal vector winds at the dayside equator crossing and two on the nightside equator crossing as well as for all low latitudes. This is significantly greater than the data output of either the HRDI or the DE-2 satellite observations. This paper will describe the climatology that has been obtained by the TIDI instrument since early 2002 for low latitudes. The precession rate of TIMED supports two month averaging of data sets in order to sample all local solar time. Tidal structure is evident in the resulting zonal and meridional winds for mesosphere and lower thermosphere altitudes.

  16. Magnotospheric imaging of high latitude ion outflows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Garrido

    Full Text Available High latitude ion outflows mostly consist of upward streaming O+ and He+ emanating from the ionosphere. At heights above 1000 km, these flows consist of cold and hot components which resonantly scatter solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV light, however, the ion populations respond differently to Doppler shifting resulting from the large relative velocities between the ions and the Sun. The possibility of optical detection of the Doppler effect on the scattering rate will be discussed for the O+ (83.4 nm ions. We have contrasted the EUV solar resonance images of these outflows by simulations of the 30.4 nm He+ and 83.4 nm O+ emissions for both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Input data for the 1000 km level has been obtained from the EICS instrument aboard the Dynamics Explorer satellite. Our results show emission rates of 50 and 56 milli-Rayleighs at 30.4 nm for quiet and disturbed conditions and 65 and 75 milli-Rayleighs at 83.4 nm for quiet and disturbed conditions, respectively, obtained for a polar orbiting satellite and viewing radially outward. We also find that an imager at an equatorial distance of 9 RE or more is in a favourable position for detecting ion outflows, particularly when the plasmapause is depressed in latitude. However, an occultation disk is necessary to obscure the bright plasmaspheric emissions.

  17. What Challenges Manual Workers' Ability to Cope with Back Pain at Work, and What Influences Their Decision to Call in Sick?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Pernille; Karsten, Mette Marie V; Indahl, Aage; Bendix, Tom

    2015-12-01

    Although back pain (BP) is a very common cause for sickness absence, most people stay at work during BP episodes. Existing knowledge on the factors influencing the decision to stay at work despite pain is limited. The aim of this study was to explore challenges for coping with BP at work and decisive factors for work attendance among workers with high physical work demands. Three focus groups (n = 20) were conducted using an explorative inductive method. Participants were public-employed manual workers with high physical work demands. All had personal BP experience. Thematic analysis was used for interpretation. Results were matched with the Flags system framework to guide future recommendations. Workers with BP were challenged by poor physical work conditions and a lack of supervisor support/trust (i.e. lack of adjustment latitude). Organization of workers into teams created close co-worker relationships, which positively affected BP coping. Workers responded to BP by applying helpful individual adjustments to reduce or prevent pain. Traditional ergonomics was considered inconvenient, but nonetheless ideal. When pain was not decisive, the decision to call in sick was mainly governed by workplace factors (i.e. sick absence policies, job strain, and close co-workers relationships) and to a less degree by personal factors. Factors influencing BP coping at work and the decision to report sick was mainly governed by factors concerning general working conditions. Creating a flexible and inclusive working environment guided by the senior management and overall work environment regulations seems favourable.

  18. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  19. The demand for euros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the demand for euros using panel data for 10 euro area countries covering the period from 1999 to 2008. Monetary aggregates are constructed to ensure that money is a national concept by excluding deposits owned by non-residents and including external deposits owned by

  20. Ungulate Reproductive Parameters Track Satellite Observations of Plant Phenology across Latitude and Climatological Regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoner, David C; Sexton, Joseph O; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Bernales, Heather H; Edwards, Thomas C

    2016-01-01

    The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004-2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season ("Start" and "Peak", respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production, across

  1. Dust transport into Martian polar latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J. R.; Pollack, J. B.

    1992-01-01

    The presence of suspended dust in the Martian atmosphere, and its return to the planet's surface, is implicated in the formation of the polar layered terrain and the dichotomy in perennial CO2 polar cap retention in the two hemispheres. A three dimensional model was used to study Martian global dust storms. The model accounts for the interactive feedbacks between the atmospheric thermal and dynamical states and an evolving radiatively active suspended dust load. Results from dust storm experiments, as well as from simulations in which there is interest in identifying the conditions under which surface dust lifting occurs at various locations and times, indicate that dust transport due to atmospheric eddy motions is likely to be important in the arrival of suspended dust at polar latitudes. The layered terrain in both polar regions of Mars is interpreted as the reality of cyclical episodes of volatile (CO2, H2O) and dust deposition.

  2. High latitude electromagnetic plasma wave emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurnett, D. A.

    1983-01-01

    The principal types of electromagnetic plasma wave emission produced in the high latitude auroral regions are reviewed. Three types of radiation are described: auroral kilometric radiation, auroral hiss, and Z mode radiation. Auroral kilometric radiation is a very intense radio emission generated in the free space R-X mode by electrons associated with the formation of discrete auroral arcs in the local evening. Theories suggest that this radiation is an electron cyclotron resonance instability driven by an enhanced loss cone in the auroral acceleration region at altitudes of about 1 to 2 R sub E. Auroral hiss is a somewhat weaker whistler mode emission generated by low energy (100 eV to 10 keV) auroral electrons. The auroral hiss usually has a V shaped frequency time spectrum caused by a freqency dependent beaming of the whistler mode into a conical beam directed upward or downward along the magnetic field.

  3. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

  4. Electrodynamics of ionospheric weather over low latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdu, Mangalathayil Ali

    2016-12-01

    The dynamic state of the ionosphere at low latitudes is largely controlled by electric fields originating from dynamo actions by atmospheric waves propagating from below and the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction from above. These electric fields cause structuring of the ionosphere in wide ranging spatial and temporal scales that impact on space-based communication and navigation systems constituting an important segment of our technology-based day-to-day lives. The largest of the ionosphere structures, the equatorial ionization anomaly, with global maximum of plasma densities can cause propagation delays on the GNSS signals. The sunset electrodynamics is responsible for the generation of plasma bubble wide spectrum irregularities that can cause scintillation or even disruptions of satellite communication/navigation signals. Driven basically by upward propagating tides, these electric fields can suffer significant modulations from perturbation winds due to gravity waves, planetary/Kelvin waves, and non-migrating tides, as recent observational and modeling results have demonstrated. The changing state of the plasma distribution arising from these highly variable electric fields constitutes an important component of the ionospheric weather disturbances. Another, often dominating, component arises from solar disturbances when coronal mass ejection (CME) interaction with the earth's magnetosphere results in energy transport to low latitudes in the form of storm time prompt penetration electric fields and thermospheric disturbance winds. As a result, drastic modifications can occur in the form of layer restructuring (Es-, F3 layers etc.), large total electron content (TEC) enhancements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) latitudinal expansion/contraction, anomalous polarization electric fields/vertical drifts, enhanced growth/suppression of plasma structuring, etc. A brief review of our current understanding of the ionospheric weather variations and the

  5. Demand surge following earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anna H.

    2012-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

  6. Revisiting the question: Does high-latitude solar activity lead low-latitude solar activity in time phase?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kong, D. F.; Qu, Z. N. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Guo, Q. L., E-mail: kdf@ynao.ac.cn [College of Mathematics Physics and Information Engineering, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001 (China)

    2014-05-01

    Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are used to investigate whether high-latitude solar activity leads low-latitude solar activity in time phase or not, using the data of the Carte Synoptique solar filaments archive from 1919 March to 1989 December. From the cross-correlation analysis, high-latitude solar filaments have a time lead of 12 Carrington solar rotations with respect to low-latitude ones. Both the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence indicate that high-latitude solar filaments lead low-latitude ones in time phase. Furthermore, low-latitude solar activity is better correlated with high-latitude solar activity of the previous cycle than with that of the following cycle, which is statistically significant. Thus, the present study confirms that high-latitude solar activity in the polar regions is indeed better correlated with the low-latitude solar activity of the following cycle than with that of the previous cycle, namely, leading in time phase.

  7. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  8. Market Expects Demand Increase

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In the recent releasing Textile Industry Invigorating Plan,"givingattention to both domestlc and overseas markets"is put into a keyposition.Under a series policies,such as increasing the tax rebaterate for textile and garment exports,and granting loan for SME,thefurther development of this industry is expectative.Otherwise,weshould know that it costs time for demand driving.This need ourpatients.The only questionis how much time we have to wait.

  9. Migration and Tourism Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This study considers the relationship between immigration and Portuguese tourism demand for the period 1995-2008, using a dynamic panel data approach. The findings indicate that Portuguese tourism increased significantly during the period in accordance with the values expected for a developed country. The regression results show that income, shock of immigration, population, and geographical distance between Portugal and countries of origin are the main determinants of Portuguese tourism.

  10. Process latitude comparison of advanced DUV photoresists to latest-generation 193-nm photoresists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joesten, Lori A.; Reilly, Michael T.; Linskens, Frank T.; Jehoul, Christiane; Parker, Colin R.

    2001-09-01

    The introduction of resolution enhancement techniques (RETs) and higher numerical aperture (NA) scanners has pushed the capability of 248nm (DUV) processes to below 130nm. This extension of DUV technology has made the decision to insert 193nm difficult. The decision to either extend the current DUV processes or to change to 193nm will depend on several things: mask costs, tool costs, material availability and photoresist performance. The focus of this paper is on photoresist performance. The process latitudes of advanced DUV photoresists are compared to the latest generation of 193nm resists and simulation is used to estimate the performance obtained on the next generation scanners. This paper examines resist process latitude at several feature sizes to determine the strengths and weaknesses of each platform. The feature sizes to be examined include 130nm, 120nm and 110nm with a pitch ratio of 1:1 Lines/Spaces. The resists are processed on the appropriate anti-reflectant and a resist film thickness of approximately 3,000 angstrom is used. The measured lithographic response will be the individual process windows. The examination of each platform's performance will clarify the differences between the two resists on current scanners and estimate the differences on the next generation scanners. The results show experimentally that the current 193nm resist has slightly better process latitudes than the DUV resist for 1:1 Line/Spaces below 130nm. The estimation of performance on the next generation higher NA scanners indicate that the DUV resist will have better performance than the current 193nm resist. However, when the 193nm resists reach the same maturity as the DUV resist and respond to the aerial images accordingly, the 193nm resist will have better process latitude. While few resolution enhancement techniques are used in the experiments, the results do provide a piece of information required to decide between DUV and 193nm.

  11. Meeting increased demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Andrew

    2004-07-01

    New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number

  12. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  13. Using the Price Elasticity of Demand in Educational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joseph D.; Moracco, Judy N.

    1984-01-01

    Describes a study and methods used by Navy Campus to choose a funding arrangement that would make the best use of the money available for voluntary educational purposes. Discusses modifying the economic concept of price elasticity to the interests of educationally oriented audiences. (JOW)

  14. Using the Price Elasticity of Demand in Educational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joseph D.; Moracco, Judy N.

    1984-01-01

    Describes a study and methods used by Navy Campus to choose a funding arrangement that would make the best use of the money available for voluntary educational purposes. Discusses modifying the economic concept of price elasticity to the interests of educationally oriented audiences. (JOW)

  15. Bayesian Image Classification At High Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulgin, Claire E.; Eastwood, Steinar; Merchant, Chris J.

    2013-12-01

    The European Space Agency created the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) to maximize the usefulness of Earth Observations to climate science. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable to which satellite observations make a crucial contribution, and is one of the projects within the CCI program. SST retrieval is dependent on successful cloud clearing and identification of clear-sky pixels over ocean. At high latitudes image classification is more difficult due to the presence of sea-ice. Newly formed ice has a temperature close to the freezing point of water and a dark surface making it difficult to distinguish from open ocean using data at visible and infrared wavelengths. Similarly, melt ponds on the sea-ice surface make image classification more difficult. We present here a three- way Bayesian classifier for the AATSR instrument classifying pixels as ‘clear-sky over ocean', ‘clear-sky over ice' or ‘cloud' using the 0.6, 1.6, 11 and 12 micron channels. We demonstrate the ability of the classifier to successfully identify sea-ice and consider the potential for generating an ice surface temperature record from AATSR which could be extended using data from SLSTR.

  16. Assimilative modeling of low latitude ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pi, Xiaoqing; Wang, Chunining; Hajj, George A.; Rosen, I. Gary; Wilson, Brian D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we present an observation system simulation experiment for modeling low-latitude ionosphere using a 3-dimensional (3-D) global assimilative ionospheric model (GAIM). The experiment is conducted to test the effectiveness of GAIM with a 4-D variational approach (4DVAR) in estimation of the ExB drift and thermospheric wind in the magnetic meridional planes simultaneously for all longitude or local time sectors. The operational Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites and the ground-based global GPS receiver network of the International GPS Service are used in the experiment as the data assimilation source. 'The optimization of the ionospheric state (electron density) modeling is performed through a nonlinear least-squares minimization process that adjusts the dynamical forces to reduce the difference between the modeled and observed slant total electron content in the entire modeled region. The present experiment for multiple force estimations reinforces our previous assessment made through single driver estimations conducted for the ExB drift only.

  17. 网购环境下基于随机合格率与收益最大化的物料需求决策%Study on Material Demand Decision in Online Shopping Environment Based on Stochastic Quality Pass Rate and Benefit Maximization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王玲玲; 张毕西; 胡盛强; 李芳

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, under the circumstances where there existed a stochastic quality pass rate, we built the decision-making model for maximum returns of single-stage material demand volume based on rework pass rate, then through a numerical example demonstrated the validity of the model, and at the end, analyzed the sensitivity of the rework pass rate, average pass rate value and its standard deviation, and the various cost and returns parameters.%考虑存在随机质量合格率条件下,建立了基于返工成功率的单阶段物料需求量收益最大化决策模型,通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性,且对返工成功率、合格率均值及标准差、各类成本及收益参数进行了敏感度分析,可为中小制造企业物料需求决策及成本控制策略提供参考。

  18. Demand and routing models for urban goods movement simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Polimeni, Antonio; Russo, Francesco; Vitetta, Antonino

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a macro-architecture for simulating goods movements in an urban area. Urban goods supply is analysed when the retailer is the decision-maker and chooses to supply his/her shop. Two components are considered: demand in terms of goods supply and vehicle routing with constraints to simulate goods movements. To analyse demand we consider a multi-step model, while to analyse goods movements a Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (VRPTW) is formalized. We exa...

  19. CHIRALITY OF HIGH-LATITUDE FILAMENTS OVER SOLAR CYCLE 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeates, A. R. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Mackay, D. H., E-mail: anthony.yeates@durham.ac.uk, E-mail: duncan@mcs.st-and.ac.uk [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9SS (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-10

    A non-potential quasi-static evolution model coupling the Sun's photospheric and coronal magnetic fields is applied to the problem of filament chirality at high latitudes. For the first time, we run a continuous 15 year simulation, using bipolar active regions determined from US National Solar Observatory, Kitt Peak magnetograms between 1996 and 2011. Using this simulation, we are able to address the outstanding question of whether magnetic helicity transport from active latitudes can overcome the effect of differential rotation at higher latitudes. Acting alone, differential rotation would produce high-latitude filaments with opposite chirality to the majority type in each hemisphere. We find that differential rotation can indeed lead to opposite chirality at high latitudes, but only for around 5 years of the solar cycle following the polar field reversal. At other times, including the rising phase, transport of magnetic helicity from lower latitudes overcomes the effect of in situ differential rotation, producing the majority chirality even on the polar crowns at polar field reversal. These simulation predictions will allow for future testing of the non-potential coronal model. The results indicate the importance of long-term memory and helicity transport from active latitudes when modeling the structure and topology of the coronal magnetic field at higher latitudes.

  20. Geographic latitude and prevalence of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grivas, Theodoros B; Vasiliadis, Elias; Savvidou, Olga; Mouzakis, Vasilios; Koufopoulos, Georgios

    2006-01-01

    Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) prevalence has been reported to be different in various geographic latitudes and demonstrates higher values in northern countries. A study on epidemiological reports from the literature was conducted to record the prevalence of AIS among the general population of boys and girls, aged 10-16 years old, in different geographic latitudes, in order to test the hypothesis that the prevalence of AIS among boys and girls is different in various geographic latitudes and to examine if there is a possible association between them. Seventeen peer-reviewed published papers reporting AIS prevalence in the general population of boys and girls from most geographic areas of the northern hemisphere were retrieved from the literature. The geographic latitude of each centre where a particular study was originated was documented. The statistical analysis included a linear regression forward modeling procedure of the AIS prevalence by latitude, weighted by sample size. According to the modelling of the data, a significant positive association between prevalence of AIS and latitude was found for girls (p<0.001), following a rather curvilinear trend, but not a significant positive association was found for boys (p<0.111). A positive association between prevalence of AIS and geographic latitude is reported only for girls in the present study. Prevalence of AIS in boys is not associated significantly with geographic latitude. This differing significant association implicates the possible role of environmental factors in the pathogenesis of AIS that may act in a different way between boys and girls.

  1. Wood anatomical variation in relation to latitude anf altitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaff, van der N.A.; Baas, P.

    1974-01-01

    The wood anatomical variation within 17 eurytherm hardwood genera in relation to altitude and latitude has been studied using wood samples from 52 species. With increasing latitude a miniaturization of secondary xylem elements (shorter vessel members, narrower vessels, shorter and sometimes narrower

  2. Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Camilo Paz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

  3. CONSUMER DEMAND FOR FOOD DIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Jonq-Ying; Mark G. Brown

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, consumer demand for food diversity is measured by the entropy and Simpson indices for budget shares. Results show that consumer demand for food diversity is related to total food expenditures and household size and composition.

  4. Bioeconomic Analysis of Pesticide Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Moffitt, L. Joe; Farnsworth, Richard L.

    1981-01-01

    The ability of insects to develop resistance to specific pesticides affects pesticide demand. However, the affect of resistance on demand cannot be observed or measured. This analysis substitutes an expression for the unobserved resistance variable in a pesticide demand model and then illustrates the model's potential by estimating demand for DDT. To arrive at the expression characterizing the unobserved resistance variable a biological resistance model is constructed then incorporated into t...

  5. Backcasting in freight transport demand modelling – chances and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Lange, Peter; Huber, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Freight transport demand models are important tools to support policy decision-making by enabling decision makers to evaluate transport policies and correlated effects. This significance puts high pressure on freight models regarding their accuracy. In order to ensure model accuracy there are different methods within the wide area of quality assurance that can be applied. Although backcasting is such a method it is, however, often neglected or implemented insufficiently. The paper presents ma...

  6. Rewarding yet demanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørkedal, S T B; Torsting, A M B; Møller, T

    2016-01-01

    AIM: The purpose of this study, by exploring client perspectives, was to achieve a better understanding of how people with schizophrenia experience an occupational therapy intervention designed to enable them to carry out meaningful occupations in the early phases of recovery. METHOD: A qualitative......, as demanding. Participants valued engaging in real-life occupations while anchoring new strategies but also the occupational therapist's role in dealing with failure. Participants felt the intervention assisted in their recovery process and enabled them to engage in meaningful occupations. CONCLUSION......: The study provided unique insight into how participants experienced a client-centred partnership with an occupational therapist in the early phases of recovery. The intervention was feasible and supported the participants' recovery process....

  7. Physical demands in worklife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrand, I

    1988-01-01

    Industrial occupations which are physically strenuous in the traditional sense of the word have decreased in number. They have partly been replaced by "light," repetitive, monotonous work tasks performed in a sitting position. The number of heavy work tasks within the service sector has increased. Specialization has been intensified. The individual's capacity for strenuous work is still of importance to successful work performance. Many studies show that an optional choice of work pace in physically demanding occupational work results in an adaptation of pace or intensity until the worker is utilizing 40-50% of her or his capacity. When the work rate is constrained, the relative strain of the individual varies inversely with the physical work capacity. The frequency of musculoskeletal disorders has concurrently increased with the implementation of industrial mechanization. New, wise, ergonomic moves are needed to stop this development.

  8. Turbulence in high latitude molecular clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, S. N.; Larosa, T. N.; Magnani, L.; Chastain, R. J.; Costagliola, F.

    We summarize a continuing investigation of turbulence in high-latitude translucent molecular clouds. These low mass (~ 50 M(solar), nearby (~ 100 pc), non-star forming clouds appear to be condensing out of the atomic cirrus and must be forced by external dynamical processes, since they lack internal sources, for which we can distinguish the injection scale for the turbulence. We have now mapped three clouds -- MBM 3, MBM 16, and MBM 40 -- with high spatial (0.03 pc) and velocity resolution (<0.08 km/s) in 12CO(1-0) 13CO(1-0) (NRAO 12m and FCRAO). All three clouds show evidence for large-shear flows and we propose that the turbulent motions are powered by shear-flow instability. The densest gas is structured into filaments but the velocity profiles do not change in going across a filament indicating that shocks are not compressing the gas. The density field is more likely the result of thermal instability. The velocity-size relationship, a commonly used diagnostic of ISM turbulence, does not hold in these clouds: the linewidth does not increase with region size. The centroid velocity probability distribution function (PDF) is a more precise measure of turbulence. In these clouds the PDFs exhibit broad wings, consistent with a Lorentzian distribution and showing evidence non-Gaussian correlated processes. This is a clear signature of intermittency. We have also begun a mapping survey of CS (1-0), CS (2-1), H2CO, and HCO+ at Arecibo and OSO and willdiscuss results for the Polaris flare and L1512. We will also discusssome implications of these studies for the turbulent dissipation in these systems.

  9. Participatory Demand-supply Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaee, S.A.; Oey, M.A.; Nevejan, C.I.M.; Brazier, F.M.

    2015-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Participatory Demand-Supply (PDS) systems as socio-technical systems, this paper focuses on a new approach to coordinating demand and supply in dynamic environments. A participatory approach to demand and supply provides a new frame of reference for system design, for which

  10. Participatory Demand-supply Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaee, S.A.; Oey, M.A.; Nevejan, C.I.M.; Brazier, F.M.

    2015-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Participatory Demand-Supply (PDS) systems as socio-technical systems, this paper focuses on a new approach to coordinating demand and supply in dynamic environments. A participatory approach to demand and supply provides a new frame of reference for system design, for which

  11. Future Capacity Procurements Under Unknown Demand and Increasing Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Apostolos Burnetas; Stephen Gilbert

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we study a situation in which a broker must manage the procurement of a short-life-cycle product. As the broker observes demand for the item, she learns about the demand process. However, as is often the case in practice, it becomes either more difficult or more expensive to procure the item as the selling season advances. Thus, the broker must trade off higher procurement costs against the benefit of making ordering decisions with better information about demand. Problems of th...

  12. Neural correlates of a postponed decision report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemus, Luis; Hernández, Adrián; Luna, Rogelio; Zainos, Antonio; Nácher, Verónica; Romo, Ranulfo

    2007-01-01

    Depending on environmental demands, a decision based on a sensory evaluation may be either immediately reported or postponed for later report. If postponed, the decision must be held in memory. But what exactly is stored by the underlying memory circuits, the final decision itself or the sensory information that led to it? Here, we report that, during a postponed decision report period, the activity of medial premotor cortex neurons encodes both the result of the sensory evaluation that corresponds to the monkey's possible choices and past sensory information on which the decision is based. These responses could switch back and forth with remarkable flexibility across the postponed decision report period. Moreover, these responses covaried with the animal's decision report. We propose that maintaining in working memory the original stimulus information on which the decision is based could serve to continuously update the postponed decision report in this task. PMID:17940014

  13. 新型农村合作医疗制度对农户高科技医疗服务利用的影响--基于供给者需求角度%The impact of new rural cooperative medical system on farmer’s decision of high-tech medical utilization:Evidence from supplier-induced demand

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑旭辉; 刘进; 宁满秀

    2015-01-01

    Based on farmers’ field survey in Fujian province, this study, by applying Probit model from the perspective of supplier-induced demand, examines the effects of the new rural cooperative medical system on farmers’ utilization decisions of high-tech diagnosis medical services (such as CT and MRI). The findings show that, after the control of some factors related to NRCMS’ reimbursement program, the density of beds or physicians could bring about the behavior of supplier-induced demand of physician services and hence an significant increase in the probability of medical high-technology services utilization, and that the NRCMS’ payment approach, such as global budgeting or case payment, would cut down significantly the probability of high-tech medical services utilization to some extent. So, this suggests that the key of the next step is to reasonably guide and control the utilization of medical high-tech services in order to keep NRCMS’ sustainable development which is eventually beneficial to farmers.%以福建地区农户为研究对象,基于供给者诱导需求角度,采用Probit型实证分析方法,分析新型农村合作医疗制度对农户高科技医疗(如CT、MRI)服务利用行为的影响。结果表明:控制新型农村合作医疗制度给付结构因素之后,病床密度与医生密度会引发医疗服务供给者的诱导需求行为,使患病农户高科技医疗服务利用的概率显著增加;按病种付费或总额预算制的医疗支付方式改革则显著降低患病农户的高科技医疗利用概率。因此,新农合制度的下一步工作重点必须是合理引导和有效控制高科技医疗服务利用,从而使新农合制度真正发挥其应有的政策功能。

  14. Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dilaver, Zafer, E-mail: Z.dilaver@surrey.ac.uk [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom (United Kingdom); The Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry, PK 06573, Ankara (Turkey); Hunt, Lester C [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2011-06-15

    This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research Highlights: > Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. > Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. > Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. > Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

  15. Quiet geomagnetic field representation for all days and latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, W.H.; Schiffmacher, E.R.; Arora, B.R.

    1992-01-01

    Describes a technique for obtaining the quiet-time geomagnetic field variation expected for all days of the year and distribution of latitudes from a limited set of selected quiet days within a year at a discrete set of locations. A data set of observatories near 75??E longitude was used as illustration. The method relies upon spatial smoothing of the decomposed spectral components. An evaluation of the fidelity of the resulting model shows correlation coefficients usually above 0.9 at the lower latitudes and near 0.7 at the higher latitudes with variations identified as dependent upon season and field element. -from Authors

  16. Failing Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    as a controlled cost for achieving organizational goals. Decisions must fail so the organization can succeed. This chapter uses two cases to elaborate on these ideas. By way of introduction, I will reflect on the notion of ‘failing decisions’ within organization and decision theory. This chapter is also propelled...... deals not with traffic delays, but with failing decisions in organizations. The assumption of this chapter is that failing decisions today are as normal as delayed trains. Instead of being the exception, failure is part of the everyday reproduction of organizations – as an uncontrolled effect but also...... by an interest in failure as one way of improving understanding of present-day decision making in organizations....

  17. Educator Supply and Demand in Washington State. 2004 Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashway, Larry; Maloney, Rick; Hathaway, Randy; Bryant, B. J.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the findings of the third Educator Supply and Demand Research study in the State of Washington. The intent of these Washington studies is to provide data to inform and shape decisions and activities in the following ways: (1) Provide useful information for educational policymakers, including the legislature, the State Board…

  18. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  19. Distributed MPC applied to power demand side control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larsen, G.K.H.; Pons, J.; Achterop, S.; Scherpen, J.M.A.

    2013-01-01

    In the future, global energy balance of a smart grid system can be achieved by its agents deciding on their own power demand locally and the exchange of these decisions. In this paper, we model a network of households with washing machine programs that can be shifted in time so that the overall powe

  20. Alignment analysis of urban railways based on passenger travel demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex

    2010-01-01

    Planning of urban railways like Metro and especially Light Rail Transit often result in multiple alignment alternatives from where it can be difficult to select the best one. Travel demand is a good foundation for evaluating a railway alignment for its ability to attract passengers. Therefore...... and can be applied as decision support in different stages of the urban railway alignment planning....

  1. Management decisions for cogeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, R. R.; Tabors, R. D.

    1982-07-01

    Two interdependent studies which explore the underlying factors in the decision by private, private non-profit, and public sector facility owners to invest in cogeneration technology are summarized. The employ factor analysis techniques to explain the decision to invest and discriminant analysis to group the survey respondents into non-cogenerators and potential cogenerators. Data for both studies come from a survey of commercial, industrial, and institutional electric energy consumers who used more than 750 kW demand in any one month of 1981 for a selected electric utility in the Boston area. There were 129 usable responses to the survey of 32.2% of the population. The studies confirm that a number of factors other than purely economic considerations may prevent use of cogeneration technology at the present time. These factors include: uncertainty caused by regulatory action; desire for energy self sufficiency by the organization; financial flexibility; experience with electricity cogeneration or self generation; and capital budget planning methods.

  2. Cosmology with the WFIRST High Latitude Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dore, Olivier

    Cosmic acceleration is the most surprising cosmological discovery in many decades. Testing and distinguishing among possible explanations requires cosmological measurements of extremely high precision that probe the full history of cosmic expansion and structure growth. The WFIRST-AFTA mission, as described in the Science Definition Team (SDT) reports (Spergel 2013, 2015), has the ability to improve these measurements by 1-2 orders of magnitude compared to the current state of the art, while simultaneously extending their redshift grasp, greatly improving control of systematic effects, and taking a unified approach to multiple probes that provide complementary physical information and cross-checks of cosmological results. We have assembled a team with the expertise and commitment needed to address the stringent challenges of the WFIRST dark energy program through the Project's formulation phase. After careful consideration, we have elected to address investigations A (Galaxy Redshift Survey) and C (Weak Lensing and Cluster Growth) of the WFIRST SIT NRA with a unified team, because the two investigations are tightly linked at both the technical level and the theoretical modeling level. The imaging and spectroscopic elements of the High Latitude Survey (HLS) will be realized as an integrated observing program, and they jointly impose requirements on instrument and telescope performance, operations, and data transfer. The methods for simulating and interpreting weak lensing and galaxy clustering observations largely overlap, and many members of our team have expertise in both areas. The team PI, Olivier Dore, is a cosmologist with a broad expertise in cosmic microwave background and large scale structures. Yun Wang and Chris Hirata will serve as Lead Co-Investigators for topics A and C, respectively. Many members of our team have been involved with the design and requirements of a dark energy space mission for a decade or more, including the Co-Chair and three

  3. Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes

    OpenAIRE

    M. C. MacCracken; H.-J. Shin; Caldeira, K; G. A. Ban-Weiss

    2012-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are the primary contributor to the 0.8 °C increase in the global average temperature since the late 19th century, shortening cold seasons and lengthening warm seasons. The warming is amplified in polar regions, causing retreat of sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, mountain glaciers, and ice sheets, while also modifying mid-latitude weather, amplifying global sea level rise, and initiating high-latitude carbon feedbacks. Model simulations in which we...

  4. THE PRICE OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUAL DEMAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz Golpek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The rise in the living standards in most of the world, the rise in population and schooling rates have increased the demand for higher education. The attribution of semi public property becomes determinant to decide whom will provide the supply and the production in semi public properties is realized by means of a supply and demand mechanism. The supply of higher education is mostly secured in accordance with the public demand as well as the resources available.  In addition, the fact that higher education services have produced significant benefits has led to over demand. This situation relates to a simple economic rule that a commodity or service which costs almost nothing or little will increase until the mariginal benefit of its demand equals to 0 or almost 0. However, the educational supply and demand is difficult to identify in accordance to the supply and demand and balance of price as observed in the economic theory. The high profits that would be attracted in the future are significant factors influencing individual’s decisions for investment. The decision for investment depends on the possible return in the future, the cost of investment, and the current interest rates. Higher education with investment purposes is influenced by these three factors and higher education is demanded more and more by individuals on the expectation that they will gain high profits In theory, it is accepted that the basic factors identifying the demand for higher education are in harmony with empirical research results in several countries including Turkey.

  5. North American oil demand outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, M.B. [National Economic Research Associates, White Plains, NY (United States)

    1995-11-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC`s pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  6. An integrated communications demand model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubleday, C. F.

    1980-11-01

    A computer model of communications demand is being developed to permit dynamic simulations of the long-term evolution of demand for communications media in the U.K. to be made under alternative assumptions about social, economic and technological trends in British Telecom's business environment. The context and objectives of the project and the potential uses of the model are reviewed, and four key concepts in the demand for communications media, around which the model is being structured are discussed: (1) the generation of communications demand; (2) substitution between media; (3) technological convergence; and (4) competition. Two outline perspectives on the model itself are given.

  7. Mining residential water and electricity demand data in Southern California to inform demand management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cominola, A.; Spang, E. S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Loge, F. J.; Lund, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    Demand side management strategies are key to meet future water and energy demands in urban contexts, promote water and energy efficiency in the residential sector, provide customized services and communications to consumers, and reduce utilities' costs. Smart metering technologies allow gathering high temporal and spatial resolution water and energy consumption data and support the development of data-driven models of consumers' behavior. Modelling and predicting resource consumption behavior is essential to inform demand management. Yet, analyzing big, smart metered, databases requires proper data mining and modelling techniques, in order to extract useful information supporting decision makers to spot end uses towards which water and energy efficiency or conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this study, we consider the following research questions: (i) how is it possible to extract representative consumers' personalities out of big smart metered water and energy data? (ii) are residential water and energy consumption profiles interconnected? (iii) Can we design customized water and energy demand management strategies based on the knowledge of water- energy demand profiles and other user-specific psychographic information? To address the above research questions, we contribute a data-driven approach to identify and model routines in water and energy consumers' behavior. We propose a novel customer segmentation procedure based on data-mining techniques. Our procedure consists of three steps: (i) extraction of typical water-energy consumption profiles for each household, (ii) profiles clustering based on their similarity, and (iii) evaluation of the influence of candidate explanatory variables on the identified clusters. The approach is tested onto a dataset of smart metered water and energy consumption data from over 1000 households in South California. Our methodology allows identifying heterogeneous groups of consumers from the studied sample, as well as

  8. Demand Response in Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.

    2014-01-01

    In recent decades, moves toward higher integration of Renewable Energy Resources have called for fundamental changes in both the planning and operation of the overall power grid. One such change is the incorporation of Demand Response (DR), the process by which consumers can adjust their demand i...

  9. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &

  10. Technical Workers in Great Demand

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The Labor and Social Security Ministry conducted a survey on 81 labor markets across China in the second quarter of this year, the results of which showed that the demand for technical workers, especially those of middle and senior titles, far outnumbers the supply.The survey shows that the demand/supply

  11. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerout

  12. CAREER GUIDE FOR DEMAND OCCUPATIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, E.R.; WELCH, JOHN L.

    THIS PUBLICATION UPDATES THE "CAREER GUIDE FOR DEMAND OCCUPATIONS" PUBLISHED IN 1959 AND PROVIDES COUNSELORS WITH INFORMATION ABOUT OCCUPATIONS IN DEMAND IN MANY AREAS WHICH REQUIRE PREEMPLOYMENT TRAINING. IT PRESENTS, IN COLUMN FORM, THE EDUCATION AND OTHER TRAINING USUALLY REQUIRED BY EMPLOYERS, HIGH SCHOOL SUBJECTS OF PARTICULAR PERTINENCE TO…

  13. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerout

  14. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Koberstein, Achim; Lukas, Elmar; Naumann, Marc

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands...

  15. Space weather and myocardial infarction diseases at subauroral latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsonov, Sergey; Kleimenova, Natalia; Petrova, Palmira

    The relationship of the number of calls for the emergency medical care in Yakutsk (subauroral latitudes) in connection with myocardial infarction diseases during years near the maximum (1992) and minimum (1998) of the 11-year geomagnetic disturbance cycle to space weather parameters has been studied. It is found that at subauroral latitudes, the increase of geomagnetic activity, namely, the occurrence of night magnetospheric substorms, plays the important role in the exacerbation of myocardial infarctions. Substorms are accompanied by Pi1 irregular geomagnetic pulsations with periods of (0.5-3.0) Hz, coinciding with heart rhythms of a human being, thus, these waves can be a biotropic factor negatively influencing on the occurrence of myocardial infarctions. The comparison of seasonal change of the number of calls for emergency medical care to patients at subauroral latitudes with a simultaneous seasonal change of fatal endings because of an infarction at low latitudes (Bulgaria) has shown their essential difference. Thus, in Bulgaria the maximum of infarctions have been marked in winter, and minimum - in summer, and in Yakutsk a few maxima coinciding with the sharp and considerable increases of the level of the planetary geomagnetic disturbances have been observed. In this case, in Bulgaria the infarctions could be connected with availability of the Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations. Thus, the stable quasi-sinusoidal Pc1 pulsations can be a biotropic factor influencing on the development of myocardial infarctions at middle latitudes and the Pi1 irregular geomagnetic pulsations, which do not propagate to the lower latitudes, could be a biotropic factor at subauroral latitudes.

  16. Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. MacCracken

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are the primary contributor to the 0.8 °C increase in the global average temperature since the late 19th century, shortening cold seasons and lengthening warm seasons. The warming is amplified in polar regions, causing retreat of sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, mountain glaciers, and ice sheets, while also modifying mid-latitude weather, amplifying global sea level rise, and initiating high-latitude carbon feedbacks. Model simulations in which we reduced solar insolation over high latitudes not only cooled those regions, but also drew energy from lower latitudes, exerting a cooling influence over much of the hemisphere in which the reduction was imposed. Our simulations, which used the National Center for Atmospheric Research's CAM3.1 atmospheric model coupled to a slab ocean, indicated that, on a normalized basis, high-latitude reductions in absorbed solar radiation have a significantly larger cooling influence than equivalent solar reductions spread evenly over the Earth. This amplified influence occurred because high-latitude surface cooling preferentially increased sea ice fraction and, therefore, surface albedo, leading to a larger deficit in the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere than from an equivalent global reduction in solar radiation. Reductions in incoming solar radiation in one polar region (either north or south resulted in increased poleward energy transport during that hemisphere's cold season and shifted the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ away from that pole, whereas equivalent reductions in both polar regions tended to leave the ITCZ approximately in place. Together, these results suggest that, until emissions reductions are sufficient to limit the warming influence of greenhouse gas concentrations, polar reductions in solar radiation, if they can be efficiently and effectively implemented, might, because of fewer undesirable side effects than for global solar

  17. Automated Demand Response and Commissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, David S.; Motegi, Naoya; Bourassa, Norman

    2005-04-01

    This paper describes the results from the second season of research to develop and evaluate the performance of new Automated Demand Response (Auto-DR) hardware and software technology in large facilities. Demand Response (DR) is a set of activities to reduce or shift electricity use to improve the electric grid reliability and manage electricity costs. Fully-Automated Demand Response does not involve human intervention, but is initiated at a home, building, or facility through receipt of an external communications signal. We refer to this as Auto-DR. The evaluation of the control and communications must be properly configured and pass through a set of test stages: Readiness, Approval, Price Client/Price Server Communication, Internet Gateway/Internet Relay Communication, Control of Equipment, and DR Shed Effectiveness. New commissioning tests are needed for such systems to improve connecting demand responsive building systems to the electric grid demand response systems.

  18. Owning, letting and demanding second homes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bloze, Gintautas; Skak, Morten

    An increasing number of households consume housing beyond the primary home as owners of a second home. Economic studies of non-speculative demand for second homeownership are still scarce, and the present empirical study fills this gap to some extent. It is based on Danish survey data combined...... with administrative register data and presents estimations of the probability of owning a second home, the decision to let the second home and the number of let weeks per year. Also income elasticities for primary and second housing demand are estimated. We find a conventional monotonic increase in demand...... elasticities for primary housing demand for non-owners of second homes; however, owners of second homes have the highest income elasticity in the middle income group....

  19. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  20. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    M S Sridhar

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  1. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  2. The importance of organizational level decision latitude for wellbeing and organizational commitment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhondt, S.; Pot, F.D.; Kraan, K.O.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to focus on participation in the workplace and examines the relative importance of different dimensions of job control in relation to subjective well-being and organizational commitment. These dimensions are job autonomy (within a given job), functional support (from

  3. The Importance of Organizational Level Decision Latitude for Well-being and Organizational Commitment:

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhondt, S.; Pot, F.D.; Kraan, K.O.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose This paper focusses on participation in the workplace and examines the relative importance of different dimensions of job control in relation to subjective well-being and organizational commitment. These dimensions are (1) job autonomy (within a given job), (2) functional support (from

  4. The Importance of Organizational Level Decision Latitude for Well-being and Organizational Commitment:

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhondt, S.; Pot, F.D.; Kraan, K.O.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose This paper focusses on participation in the workplace and examines the relative importance of different dimensions of job control in relation to subjective well-being and organizational commitment. These dimensions are (1) job autonomy (within a given job), (2) functional support (from super

  5. The importance of organizational level decision latitude for wellbeing and organizational commitment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dhondt, S.; Pot, F.D.; Kraan, K.O.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to focus on participation in the workplace and examines the relative importance of different dimensions of job control in relation to subjective well-being and organizational commitment. These dimensions are job autonomy (within a given job), functional support (from superv

  6. AN ABSENCE OF FAST RADIO BURSTS AT INTERMEDIATE GALACTIC LATITUDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petroff, E.; Van Straten, W.; Bailes, M.; Barr, E. D.; Coster, P.; Flynn, C.; Keane, E. F. [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Johnston, S. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, Australia Telescope National Facility, P.O. Box 76, Epping, NSW 1710 (Australia); Bates, S. D.; Keith, M. J.; Kramer, M.; Stappers, B. W. [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, University of Manchester, Alan Turing Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Bhat, N. D. R. [ARC Centre of Excellence for All-sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO), 44 Rosehill Street, Redfern, NSW 2016 (Australia); Burgay, M.; Possenti, A.; Tiburzi, C. [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Via della Scienza, I-09047 Selargius (Italy); Burke-Spolaor, S. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91104 (United States); Champion, D.; Ng, C. [Max Planck Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Levin, L., E-mail: epetroff@astro.swin.edu.au [Department of Physics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); and others

    2014-07-10

    Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are an emerging class of bright, highly dispersed radio pulses. Recent work by Thornton et al. has revealed a population of FRBs in the High Time Resolution Universe (HTRU) survey at high Galactic latitudes. A variety of progenitors have been proposed, including cataclysmic events at cosmological distances, Galactic flare stars, and terrestrial radio frequency interference. Here we report on a search for FRBs at intermediate Galactic latitudes (–15° latitudes. A revised rate estimate or another strong and heretofore unknown selection effect in Galactic latitude would provide closer agreement between the surveys' detection rates. The dearth of detections at low Galactic latitude disfavors a Galactic origin for these bursts.

  7. High-latitude controls of thermocline nutrients and low latitude biological productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmiento, J L; Gruber, N; Brzezinski, M A; Dunne, J P

    2004-01-01

    The ocean's biological pump strips nutrients out of the surface waters and exports them into the thermocline and deep waters. If there were no return path of nutrients from deep waters, the biological pump would eventually deplete the surface waters and thermocline of nutrients; surface biological productivity would plummet. Here we make use of the combined distributions of silicic acid and nitrate to trace the main nutrient return path from deep waters by upwelling in the Southern Ocean and subsequent entrainment into subantarctic mode water. We show that the subantarctic mode water, which spreads throughout the entire Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic Ocean, is the main source of nutrients for the thermocline. We also find that an additional return path exists in the northwest corner of the Pacific Ocean, where enhanced vertical mixing, perhaps driven by tides, brings abyssal nutrients to the surface and supplies them to the thermocline of the North Pacific. Our analysis has important implications for our understanding of large-scale controls on the nature and magnitude of low-latitude biological productivity and its sensitivity to climate change.

  8. Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

  9. Consumer demand and quality assurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...... an inventory of pork chain governance and quality management systems, also resulting from a pan-European study, and attempt to match types of chains to consumer segments, arguing that the type of quality demanded by the consumers has implications especially for the quality management system governing the chain...

  10. Demand, Energy, and Power Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-08-01

    demand, but first, let’s talk some more about why electrical demand charges occur. Electric Load Leveling: 5 ** show flip chart of daily utility load (see...and cost savings for energy are available as a result of lowering demand. 3 ’~ show flip chart of block structure (see copy at end of script) Shown... flip chart (see copy at end of script) This is a graphical representation of real, apparent and reactive power in3 an AC circuit. Real power is the power

  11. Operational high latitude surface irradiance products from polar orbiting satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godøy, Øystein

    2016-12-01

    It remains a challenge to find an adequate approach for operational estimation of surface incoming short- and longwave irradiance at high latitudes using polar orbiting meteorological satellite data. In this presentation validation results at a number of North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean high latitude stations are presented and discussed. The validation results have revealed that although the method works well and normally fulfil the operational requirements, there is room for improvement. A number of issues that can improve the estimates at high latitudes have been identified. These improvements are partly related to improved cloud classification using satellite data and partly related to improved handling of multiple reflections over bright surfaces (snow and sea ice), especially in broken cloud conditions. Furthermore, the availability of validation sites over open ocean and sea ice is a challenge.

  12. Multiflash whistlers in ELF-band observed at low latitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashutosh K. Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiflash whistler-like event in the ELF-band, observed during March 1998 at low latitude station Jammu, is reported. The most prominent feature of these events is the multiflash nature along with the decrease in frequency within a very short span of time resembling similar to terrestrial whistlers. The events have a significantly smaller time duration (0.5–3.5 s than those reported earlier from high, mid and low latitudes and also display a diurnal maximum occurring around 09:30 h (IST. There have been similar reportings from other latitudes, but whistlers in the ELF-band with a multiflash nature along with a precursor emission have never been reported. Lightning seems to be the dominant source for the ELF whistlers reported here.

  13. Letter to the Editor: Geomagnetic storm effects at low latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. G. Rastogi

    Full Text Available The geomagnetic horizontal (H field from the chain of nine observatories in India are used to study the storm-time and disturbance daily variations. The peak decrease in storm-time variation in H showed significant enhancements at the equatorial electrojet stations over and above the normally expected decrease due to the ring current effects corrected for geomagnetic latitudes. The disturbance daily variation of H at equatorial stations showed a large decrease around midday hours over and above the usual dawn-maximum and dusk-minimum seen at any mid-latitude stations around the world. These slow and persistent additional decreases of H of disturbance daily variation at equatorial latitudes could be the effect of a westward electric field due to the Disturbance Ionospheric dynamo coupled with abnormally large electrical conductivities in the E region over the equator.Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents · Magnetospheric physics (electric fields; storms and substorms

  14. Simulation studies of high-latitude magnetospheric boundary dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PU; Zuyin; SHI; Quanqi; XIAO; Chijie; FU; Suiyan; ZHANG; Hu

    2004-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection at the high-latitude magnetopause is studied using 2.5-dimensional Hail-MHD simulation. Concentric flow vortices and magnetic islands appear when both Hall effect and sheared flow are considered. Plasma mixing across the magnetopause occurs in the presence of the flow vortices. Reconnected structure generated in the vicinity of the subsolar point changes its geometry with increasing flow shear while moving to high latitudes. In the presence of flow shear, with the Hail-MHD reconnection a higher reconnection rate than with the traditional MHD is obtained. The out-of-plane components of flow and magnetic field produced by the Hall current are redistributed under the action of the flow shear, which makes the plasma transport across the boundaries more complicated. The simulation results provide some help in understanding the dynamic processes at the high latitude magnetopause.

  15. CORAL REEFS. Genomic determinants of coral heat tolerance across latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Groves B; Davies, Sarah W; Aglyamova, Galina A; Meyer, Eli; Bay, Line K; Matz, Mikhail V

    2015-06-26

    As global warming continues, reef-building corals could avoid local population declines through "genetic rescue" involving exchange of heat-tolerant genotypes across latitudes, but only if latitudinal variation in thermal tolerance is heritable. Here, we show an up-to-10-fold increase in odds of survival of coral larvae under heat stress when their parents come from a warmer lower-latitude location. Elevated thermal tolerance was associated with heritable differences in expression of oxidative, extracellular, transport, and mitochondrial functions that indicated a lack of prior stress. Moreover, two genomic regions strongly responded to selection for thermal tolerance in interlatitudinal crosses. These results demonstrate that variation in coral thermal tolerance across latitudes has a strong genetic basis and could serve as raw material for natural selection. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yong

    In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic

  17. Spare part demand forecasting for consumer goods using installed base information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.Y. Kim (Thai Young); R. Dekker (Rommert); C. Heij (Christiaan)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWhen stopping production, the manufacturer has to decide on the lot size in the final production run to cover spare part demand during the end-of-life phase. This decision can be supported by forecasting how much demand is expected in the future. Forecasts can be obtained from the

  18. Data Science in Supply Chain Management: Data-Related Influences on Demand Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yao

    2013-01-01

    Data-driven decisions have become an important aspect of supply chain management. Demand planners are tasked with analyzing volumes of data that are being collected at a torrential pace from myriad sources in order to translate them into actionable business intelligence. In particular, demand volatilities and planning are vital for effective and…

  19. Data Science in Supply Chain Management: Data-Related Influences on Demand Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yao

    2013-01-01

    Data-driven decisions have become an important aspect of supply chain management. Demand planners are tasked with analyzing volumes of data that are being collected at a torrential pace from myriad sources in order to translate them into actionable business intelligence. In particular, demand volatilities and planning are vital for effective and…

  20. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    hypothesis of the existence of phenomenon change trends, the next step in the methodology of forecasting is the determination of a specific growth curve that describes the regularity of the development in time. These curves of growth are obtained by the analytical representation (expression of dynamic lines. There are two basic stages in the process of expression and they are: - The choice of the type of curve the shape of which corresponds to the character of the dynamic order variation - the determination of the number of values (evaluation of the curve parameters. The most widespread method of forecasting is the trend extrapolation. The basis of the trend extrapolation is the continuing of past trends in the future. The simplicity of the trend extrapolation process, on the one hand, and the absence of other information on the other hand, are the main reasons why the trend extrapolation is used for forecasting. The trend extrapolation is founded on the following assumptions: - The phenomenon development can be presented as an evolutionary trajectory or trend, - General conditions that influenced the trend development in the past will not undergo substantial changes in the future. Spare parts demand forecasting is constantly being done in all warehouses, workshops, and at all levels. Without demand forecasting, neither planning nor decision making can be done. Demand forecasting is the input for determining the level of reserve, size of the order, ordering cycles, etc. The question that arises is the one of the reliability and accuracy of a forecast and its effects. Forecasting 'by feeling' is not to be dismissed if there is nothing better, but in this case, one must be prepared for forecasting failures that cause unnecessary accumulation of certain spare parts, and also a chronic shortage of other spare parts. All this significantly increases costs and does not provide a satisfactory supply of spare parts. The main problem of the application of this model is that each

  1. DEMAND CATEGORISATION, FORECASTING, AND INVENTORY CONTROL FOR INTERMITTENT DEMAND ITEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Babiloni

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is commonly assumed that intermittent demand appears randomly, with many periods without demand; but that when it does appear, it tends to be higher than unit size. Basic and well-known forecasting techniques and stock policies perform very poorly with intermittent demand, making new approaches necessary. To select the appropriate inventory management policy, it is important to understand the demand pattern for the items, especially when demand is intermittent. The use of a forecasting method designed for an intermittent demand pattern, such as Croston’s method, is required instead of a simpler and more common approach such as exponential smoothing. The starting point is to establish taxonomic rules to select efficiently the most appropriate forecasting and stock control policy to cope with thousands of items found in real environments. This paper contributes to the state of the art in: (i categorisation of the demand pattern; (ii methods to forecast intermittent demand; and (iii stock control methods for items with intermittent demand patterns. The paper first presents a structured literature review to introduce managers to the theoretical research about how to deal with intermittent demand items in both forecasting and stock control methods, and then it points out some research gaps for future development for the three topics.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar word algemeen aanvaar dat intermitterende vraag op toevalswyse voorkom, met verskeie periodes waar daar geen vraag is nie. Wanneer die vraag dan wel materialiseer, oorskry dit dikwels die eenheidsgrootte. Die bekende vooruitskattingstegnieke en voorraadbeleidstellings het min sukses waar intermitterende vraag voorkom, sodat nuwe benaderings nodig is om die problem aan te spreek. Om ‘n geskikte voorraadbestuur-beleid te selekteer, is dit noodsaaklik om die vraagpatroon van die items te verstaan, juis in gevalle van intermitterende patrone. Die gebruik van

  2. Organizational Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    in architectural competitions and claim that they reflect necessity more than vice. They are ways around the fundamental incommensurability of the alternative design proposals. The garbage can model is used as a framework for making sense of the observed counterintuitive ways of decision making. Its attempt...

  3. Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Consumer demand and quality assurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present an......, and that these implications are different for fresh meat and processed meat. The paper closes with a call for more collaboration between chain researchers and consumer researchers.......Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...

  5. Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F.; Dunn, Robert Roberdeau

    2017-01-01

    Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature...... and an organism's fitness. Here we ask whether these documented latitudinal patterns can be generalized to predict arthropod responses to warming across mid and high temperate latitudes, for taxa whose thermal physiology has not been measured. To address this question, we used a novel natural experiment...

  6. Pulmonary nodule detection with digital projection radiography: an ex-vivo study on increased latitude post-processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biederer, Juergen; Gottwald, Tobias; Bolte, Hendrik; Riedel, Christian; Freitag, Sandra; Van Metter, Richard; Heller, Martin

    2007-04-01

    To evaluate increased image latitude post-processing of digital projection radiograms for the detection of pulmonary nodules. 20 porcine lungs were inflated inside a chest phantom, prepared with 280 solid nodules of 4-8 mm in diameter and examined with direct radiography (3.0x2.5 k detector, 125 kVp, 4 mAs). Nodule position and size were documented by CT controls and dissection. Four intact lungs served as negative controls. Image post-processing included standard tone scales and increased latitude with detail contrast enhancement (log-factors 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0). 1280 sub-images (512x512 pixel) were centred on nodules or controls, behind the diaphragm and over free parenchyma, randomized and presented to six readers. Confidence in the decision was recorded with a scale of 0-100%. Sensitivity and specificity for nodules behind the diaphragm were 0.87/0.97 at standard tone scale and 0.92/0.92 with increased latitude (log factor 2.0). The fraction of "not diagnostic" readings was reduced (from 208/1920 to 52/1920). As an indicator of increased detection confidence, the median of the ratings behind the diaphragm approached 100 and 0, respectively, and the inter-quartile width decreased (controls: pimage latitude. Above the diaphragm, accuracy and detection confidence remained unchanged. Here, the sensitivity for nodules was 0.94 with a specificity from 0.96 to 0.97 (all p>0.05). Increased latitude post-processing has minimal effects on the overall accuracy, but improves the detection confidence for sub-centimeter nodules in the posterior recesses of the lung.

  7. US electric utility demand-side management, 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-26

    The report presents comprehensive information on electric power industry demand-side management (DSM) activities in US at the national, regional, and utility levels. Objective is provide industry decision makers, government policy makers, analysts, and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding DSM as it relates to the US electric power industry. The first chapter, ``Profile: US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management,`` presents a general discussion of DSM, its history, current issues, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent chapters present discussions and more detailed data on energy savings, peak load reductions, and costs attributable to DSM.

  8. Integrated resource strategic planning and power demand-side management

    CERN Document Server

    Hu, Zhaoguang; Wen, Quan

    2013-01-01

    Integrated Resource Strategic Planning and Power Demand-Side Management elaborates two important methods - Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (IRSP) and Demand Side Management (DSM) - in terms of methodology modeling, case studies and lessons learned. This book introduces a prospective and realistic theory of the IRSP method and includes typical best practices of DSM for energy conservation and emission reduction in different countries. It can help energy providers and governmental decision-makers formulate policies and make plans for energy conservation and emission reduction, and can hel

  9. Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

    2007-05-01

    The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

  10. Towards more behaviourally robust travel demand forecasts: Catering to utility maximisers and regret minimisers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, T.; Van Cranenburgh, S.; Chorus, C.G.

    2013-01-01

    Choice probabilities and related outputs of discrete choice models form a critical input to many travel demand forecasting and transport project evaluation studies. The decision rule underlying a discrete choice model describes how individuals make their decisions and thereby co-determines the

  11. Latitud sur y control económico del hogar por la mujer peruana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico R. León

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available South latitude and household economic control by Peruvian women Southern women’s greater autonomy versus northern women’s more traditional submission to the husband were hypothesized in 1984 to explain variations in Peruvian women’s fertility desires. An analysis of data from Peru 2004-2008 Continuous Demographic and Family Health Survey supports this hypothesis by showing a significant north-to-south growth of women’s control upon husband’s income and, less consistently, household purchasing decisions. These relationships are not explained by variables also correlated with meridionality, such as aboriginal ethnicity, women’s material/informational power, age difference with the husband’s, or working for cash. Findings suggest new hypotheses, concerning the distribution of assertiveness and warmth in the Peruvian territory.

  12. NHS direct: managing demand for primary care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Annabelle L; Shepherd, Ifan D H

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers how NHS Direct is affecting demand for primary care in particular out-of-hours services from GPs. This is reviewed through a 3-year study of NHS Direct and HARMONI, the integrated telephone health helpline based in West London. It describes the policy background and development of the services on the site, and some of the outcomes of the HARMONI commissioned research to answer the question 'Has NHS Direct increased the workload for HARMONI doctors?'. The research adopted both a qualitative and quantitative approach using cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of the data collected. The analysis of the data reveals the issues as both complex and dynamic in nature. The research shows that while there has been no significant change to the total volume of activity, changes within patient groups notably the elderly and children, and in individual GP practices may be significant. In addition, the changes in organizational arrangements may influence significant changes in referral patterns such as GP out-of-hours visits. This was confirmed in the interview data indicating a link between the change in nurses' role from gatekeeper to patient advocate, which happened when they ceased to be employees of the part-time co-op and began to work instead for the 24 hours, 7 days a week NHS Direct service. The conclusions drawn are that behavioural and organizational changes are at least as significant as the evidence-based computerized decision support software in changing the demand for primary care. Further evidence cited is that a different demand pattern of calls was experienced by those local GPs not integrated into out-of-hours provision at NHS Direct West London at the time of the study.

  13. The psychological effects of empowerment strategies on consumers' product demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuchs, Christoph; Prandelli, Emanuela; Schreier, Martin

    2010-01-01

    of psychological ownership of the products selected. The studies also identify two boundary conditions for this "empowerment - product demand" effect: It diminishes if the outcome of the joint decision-making process does not reflect consumers' preferences and if consumers do not feel that they have the relevant...... competence to make sound decisions.......Companies have recently begun to use the Internet in order to integrate their customers more actively into various phases of the new product development (NPD) process. One such strategy involves empowering customers to cooperate in selecting the product concepts to be marketed by the firm...

  14. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  15. Molecular substitution rate increases with latitude in butterflies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schär, Sämi; Vila, Roger; Petrović, Andjeljko

    2017-01-01

    of five lycaenid butterfly species with varied ecological adaptations, sampled across a latitudinal gradient in the Holarctic region. We found a positive correlation between latitude and substitution rate of mitochondrial DNA sequences in all species investigated. We propose that this result is the signal...

  16. Multifractal analysis of low-latitude geomagnetic fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. A. Bolzan

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The technique of large deviation multifractal spectrum has shown that the high-latitude (77.5° N, 69.2° W geomagnetic fluctuations can be described from direct dissipation process or loading-unloading regimes of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. In this paper, we analyze the H-component of low-latitude (22.4° S, 43.6° W geomagnetic field variability observed during the month of July 2000 at the Geomagnetic Observatory, Vassouras, RJ, Brazil. The variability pattern during this period is a mixture of quiet and disturbed days including the Bastille Day intense geomagnetic storm on 15 July. Due to the complexity of this data, we pursue a detailed analysis of the geomagnetic fluctuations in different time scales including a multifractal approach using the singular power spectrum deviations obtained from the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM. The results suggest, as observed from high-latitude data, the occurrence of low-latitude multifractal processes driving the intermittent coupling between the solar wind-magnetosphere and geomagnetic field variations. On finer scales possible physical mechanisms in the context of nonlinear magnetosphere response are discussed.

  17. Insolation-sunshine relation with site elevation and latitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raja, I.A. (Univ. of Balochistan, Quetta (Pakistan))

    1994-07-01

    Data from six meteorological stations dispersed widely over Pakistan have been used to produce a correlation between the monthly means of easily measured sunshine duration and the less frequently recorded global solar radiation, taking into account the site elevation above sea level and the latitude. The relation is shown to be valuable for other regions too.

  18. Beryllium-10 concentrations in water samples of high northern latitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strobl, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Schulz, V.; Baumann, S.; Mangini, A. [Heidelberger Akademie der Wissenschaften, Heildelberg (Germany); Kubik, P.W. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-09-01

    {sup 10}Be concentrations in the water column of high northern latitudes were not available so far. We present different {sup 10}Be profiles from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea, the Arctic Ocean, and the Laptev Sea. (author) 3 fig., 3 refs.

  19. Seasonal affective disorder and latitude : a review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mersch, PPA; Middendorp, HM; Bouhuys, AL; Beersma, DGM; van den Hoofdakker, RH; Middendorp, Hermine M.

    1999-01-01

    Background: The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between the prevalence of SAD and latitude. Methods: An overview of the epidemiological literature on the prevalence of SAD is given and studies relevant for the latitudinal dependency of prevalence will be analyzed and discussed. R

  20. Seasonal affective disorder and latitude : a review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mersch, PPA; Middendorp, HM; Bouhuys, AL; Beersma, DGM; van den Hoofdakker, RH; Middendorp, Hermine M.

    Background: The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between the prevalence of SAD and latitude. Methods: An overview of the epidemiological literature on the prevalence of SAD is given and studies relevant for the latitudinal dependency of prevalence will be analyzed and discussed.

  1. The domination of Saturn's low latitude ionosphere by ring `rain'

    CERN Document Server

    O'Donoghue, J; Melin, H; Jones, G H; Cowley, S W H; Miller, S; Baines, K H; Blake, J S D

    2013-01-01

    Saturn's ionosphere is produced when the otherwise neutral atmosphere is exposed to a flow of energetic charged particles or solar radiation. At low latitudes the latter should result in a weak planet-wide glow in infrared (IR), corresponding to the planet's uniform illumination by the Sun. The observed low-latitude ionospheric electron density is lower and the temperature higher than predicted by models. A planet-ring magnetic connection has been previously suggested in which an influx of water from the rings could explain the lower than expected electron densities in Saturn's atmosphere. Here we report the detection of a pattern of features, extending across a broad latitude band from ~25 to 60 degrees, that is superposed on the lower latitude background glow, with peaks in emission that map along the planet's magnetic field lines to gaps in Saturn's rings. This pattern implies the transfer of charged water products from the ring-plane to the ionosphere, revealing the influx on a global scale, flooding betw...

  2. Star Formation and Molecular Clouds at High Galactic Latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGehee, P. M.

    2008-12-01

    In this chapter we review the young stars and molecular clouds found at high Galactic latitudes (|b| ≥ 30°). These are mostly associated with two large-scale structures on the sky, the Gould Belt and the Taurus star formation region, and a handful of molecular clouds including MBM 12 and MBM 20 which, as a population, consist of the nearest star formation sites to our Sun. There are also a few young stars that are found in apparent isolation far from any molecular cloud. The high latitude clouds are primarily translucent molecular clouds and diffuse Galactic cirrus with the majority of them seen at high latitude simply due to their proximity to the Sun. The rare exceptions are those, like the Draco and other intermediate or high velocity clouds, found significantly above or below the Galactic plane. We review the processes that result in star formation within these low density and extraplanar environments as well as the mechanisms for production of isolated T Tauri stars. We present and discuss the known high-latitude stellar nurseries and young stellar objects.

  3. Organizational Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    the customer is the Federal Government subjective bases for decisions were mentioned over three times as frequently as sophisticated methods of... satisfcations ? Much of the answer will depend on organizational antecedents and consequences (Bass, 1981). The Cascade. Based on dissatisfaction with his current...transactions (such as discounts to customers during off-seasons), by anticipating needed changes requiring technical adaptation (e.g. maintaining

  4. Demand-responsive public transportation re-scheduling for adjusting to the joint leisure activity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Fixed daily trips such as trips to work/school have fixed departure/arrival times and destination points. The recurrent nature of fixed activities facilitates individuals on making more well-informed decisions about the transport mode selection. On the contrary, selecting a transportation mode for non-recurrent leisure trips, which can account for up to 60% of trips in some cities (Transport for London, 2014, is a more complex task due to the fact that individuals have little knowledge about the alternative modal options. In this paper, we try to improve the operations of demand-responsive public transportation systems by increasing their service quality and their ridership related to joint-leisure-trips via timetable rescheduling. First, we model the public transport service re-scheduling problem considering operational regulations and the quality of service. Then, a sequential heuristic method is introduced for re-scheduling the timetables of demand-responsive public transport modes in near-real time and accommodating the joint leisure activity demand without deteriorating the quality of service. The public transport re-scheduling for increasing the joint leisure activity ridership was tested in a case study using user-generated data from social media in Stockholm and the General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS data from Sweden focusing especially on central bus lines 1 and 4.

  5. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Achim Koberstein; Elmar Lukas; Marc Naumann

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands. This model considers the expenses of production plants and the revenues of markets in different currency areas. Financial portfolio planning decisions for two types of financial instruments, forward contracts and options, are represented explicitly by multi-period decision variabl...

  6. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  7. Globalization and the demand for skill: An Export Based Channel

    OpenAIRE

    Maurin, Eric; Thesmar, David; Thoenig, Mathias

    2002-01-01

    This Paper shows that international trade affects the demand for skill through an export-based channel. Our working hypothesis is that the very act of exporting requires an effort of skill upgrading, in particular among occupations related to marketing and development. Using firm level data, we estimate a model that breaks down production into two stages: product development and marketing, and actual production. Once we correct for biases arising from the endogeneity of export decision, we fi...

  8. On the Development of an Ethical Demand Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Amanor-Boadu, Vincent

    2008-01-01

    As an increasing number of consumers shift to demand products on the basis on production practices, animal welfare protocols, human rights initiatives, it is becoming important that we develop new tools for evaluating the decision-making frameworks in the ethical products market place. This paper draws on the behavioral economics and the principal-agent literature to provide a framework for conducting such analyses.

  9. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  10. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  11. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  12. Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

    2016-11-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

  13. Credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byiers, Bruce; Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    manager education and business association membership are associated with whether a firm is credit constrained or not. Using our preferred measure of credit constraint suggests that around 43 per cent of the firms surveyed are constrained, and these enterprises would almost triple their debt burden......This paper uses two industrial firm surveys to identify the key determinants of credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing. We construct five different measures of being credit constrained and estimate desired debt demand. Besides firm size and ownership structure, we find evidence that general...

  14. Demand inducement as cheap talk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calcott, P

    1999-12-01

    The doctor-patient interaction is analysed in a game of cheap talk. Causes and consequences of imperfect agency are examined. One form of imperfect agency, supplier-induced demand, is a feature of neologism proof equilibria with some parameter values but not with others. The model is used to evaluate two tests that have been used to test for the existence of supplier-induced demand. The analysis suggests that the two tests, which compare the medical utilization of informed and uninformed consumers, are not valid.

  15. U.S. electric utility demand-side management 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-01

    The US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management report presents comprehensive information on electric power industry demand-side management (DSM) activities in the US at the national, regional, and utility levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decision makers, government policy makers, analysts, and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding DSM as it related to the US electric power industry. The first chapter, ``Profile: U.S. Electric Utility Demand-Side Management,`` presents a general discussion of DSM, its history, current issues, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent chapters present discussions and more detailed data on energy savings, peak load reductions and costs attributable to DSM. 9 figs., 24 tabs.

  16. U.S. electric utility demand-side management 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    The US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management report is prepared by the Coal and Electric Data and Renewables Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternative Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. The report presents comprehensive information on electric power industry demand-side management (DSM) activities in the US at the national, regional, and utility levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decision makers, government policy makers, analysts, and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding DSM as it relates to the US electric power industry. The first chapter, ``Profile: US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management``, presents a general discussion of DSM, its history, current issues, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent chapters present discussions and more detailed data on energy savings, peak load reductions and costs attributable to DSM. 9 figs., 24 tabs.

  17. 46 CFR 169.689 - Demand loads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Electrical Electrical Installations on Vessels of 100 Gross Tons and Over § 169.689 Demand loads. Demand loads must meet § 111.60-7 of this chapter except that smaller demand loads for motor feeders...

  18. A demand chain design for Chinese oatmeal companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Wen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a demand chain design framework for Chinese small and medium enterprises in the oatmeal industry, to help them blaze a new trail in China's oatmeal market. Design/methodology/approach: The approach using in the demand chain design is extended Quality Function Development (QFD, which provides a communication tool so that designers can find a way to integrate customers’ needs into design chain. Findings: This paper illustrates an investigation of oatmeal consumed in China, and the result shows 9 factors influencing consumer’s purchasing decisions mostly. Then use these factors to design the demand chain, and the most important processes and tasks for the enterprises are come out from the fist and the second House of Quality (HOQ, which are the main part of the design. Finally, a demand chain design is completed. Research limitations/implications: It is an application of a demand chain design framework in real Chinese oatmeal market, but the data sample is limited. Consumption surveys should have more data sources with more detailed consumer groups. And the design model needs more real-life examples to verify Practical implications: Since oatmeal products industry develops rapidly in China, oatmeal market is becoming a vast bright market. And due to the low customer satisfaction of Chinese oatmeal market, it is crucial that companies can find a way to design their demand chain, so they can completely meet the needs. Originality/value: A demand chain design framework is presented with being specific to Chinese oatmeal market. It shows a real-life example of demand chain design, and provides the domestic oatmeal companies with an approach to compete in the market.

  19. A Growing Demand for Monitoring and Evaluation in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Porter

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available When decision-makers want to use evidence from monitoring and evaluation (M&E systems to assist them in making choices, there is a demand for M&E. When there is great capacity to supply M&E information, but low capacity to demand quality evidence, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. In this context, as Picciotto (2009 observed, ‘monitoring masquerades as evaluation’. This article applies this observation, using six case studies of African M&E systems, by asking: What evidence is there that African governments are developing stronger endogenous demand for evidence generated from M&E systems?The argument presented here is that demand for evidence is increasing, leading to further development of M&E systems, with monitoring being dominant. As part of this dominance there are attempts to align monitoring systems to emerging local demand, whilst donor demands are still important in several countries. There is also evidence of increasing demand through government-led evaluation systems in South Africa, Uganda and Benin. One of the main issues that this article notes is that the M&E systems are not yet conceptualised within a reform effort to introduce a comprehensive results-based orientation to the public services of these countries. Results concepts are not yet consistently applied throughout the M&E systems in the case countries. In addition, the results-based notions that are applied appear to be generating perverse incentives that reinforce upward compliance and contrôle to the detriment of more developmental uses of M&E evidence.

  20. Demand Controlled Ventilation and Classroom Ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davies, Molly [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eliseeva, Ekaterina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faulkner, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hong, Tienzen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sullivan, Douglas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    This document summarizes a research effort on demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation. The research on demand controlled ventilation included field studies and building energy modeling.

  1. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    . An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  2. The moral demands of affluence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderholm, Jørn

    2015-01-01

    In 2004, Garrett Cullity made a significant contribution to the literature on what the world’s relatively affluent owe to the world’s relatively poor through the publishing of The Moral Demands of Affluence. In this discussion note, I draw attention to a logical problem in Cullity’s master argument...

  3. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

  4. Demand-Side Energy Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molderink, Albert; Iniewski, K.

    2012-01-01

    Concerns about climate change, increasing energy prices and dependability of energy supply ask for drastic changes in the energy supply chain, but also in the current demand-supply philosophy. Current trends in energy consumptions result in an increasing and more fluctuating electricity usage, causi

  5. Faculty Demand in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Danielle

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study is to identify the factors that shift the demand curve for faculty at not-for-profit private institutions. It is unique in that to the author's knowledge no other study has directly addressed the question of how the positive correlation between average faculty salaries and faculty-student ratios can be reconciled with…

  6. Physical Demands Study - Focus Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-26

    and the rounds in the boxes weigh 35 lb, which is lighter than equipment handled in the other physically demanding job tasks already identified...and standards. Ergonomics . 53: 858-871. 40 Appendix A: Questionnaires Completed by Volunteers prior to each Focus Group Interview 1 2 3 4a 4b 5

  7. The Cognitive Demands of Writing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrance, Mark; Jeffery, Gaynor

    1999-01-01

    Writing is a complex activity that places demands on cognitive resources. This volume presents original theory and research exploring the ways in which the sub-components of the writing process (generating and organizing content, producing grammatical sentences, etc.) differ in their cognitive deman

  8. Market demands to Danish pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone

    2001-01-01

    . The study focuses on the development on the most important markets for Danish pork. The countries are Denmark, Japan, UK, Germany, Italy, France, USA, Russia and South Korea. The primary purpose is to identify market demands of importance to the Danish pork sector in order to maintain and strengthen its...

  9. Cotton Demand Dropping in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    The ICAC claimed, global cotton market outlook is bleak in the 2012/2013 annual. Global cotton production is estimated at 25.9 million tons and cotton usage is estimated at 23.4 million tons. Cotton supply will exceed demand; the excess volume will reach 2.4 million tons.

  10. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...

  11. Employer Demands from Business Graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMurray, Stephen; Dutton, Matthew; McQuaid, Ronald; Richard, Alec

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report on research carried out with employers to determine demand for business and management skills in the Scottish workforce. Design/methodology/approach: The research used a questionnaire in which employers were interviewed (either telephone or face to face), completed themselves and returned by e-mail,…

  12. Effects of disturbed electric fields in the low-latitude and equatorial ionosphere during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuai, Jiawei; Liu, Libo; Liu, Jing; Sripathi, S.; Zhao, Biqiang; Chen, Yiding; Le, Huijun; Hu, Lianhuan

    2016-09-01

    The 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm with SYM-H value of -233 nT is an extreme space weather event in the current 24th solar cycle. In this work, we investigated the main mechanisms of the profound ionospheric disturbances over equatorial and low latitudes in the Asian-Australian sector and the American sector during this super storm event. The results reveal that the disturbed electric fields, which comprise penetration electric fields (PEFs) and disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs), play a decisive role in the ionospheric storm effects in low latitude and equatorial regions. PEFs occur on 17 March in both the American sector and the Asian-Australian sector. The effects of DDEFs are also remarkable in the two longitudinal sectors. Both the DDEFs and PEFs show the notable local time dependence, which causes the sector differences in the characteristics of the disturbed electric fields. This differences would further lead to the sector differences in the low-latitude ionospheric response during this storm. The negative storm effects caused by the long-duration DDEFs are intense over the Asian-Australian sector, while the repeated elevations of hmF2 and the equatorial ionization anomaly intensifications caused by the multiple strong PEFs are more distinctive over the American sector. Especially, the storm time F3 layer features are caught on 17 March in the American equatorial region, proving the effects of the multiple strong eastward PEFs.

  13. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  14. Group Decision Process Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  15. Determination and analysis of local seasonal terms of latitude variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soloducha, Barbara

    1991-03-01

    Local seasonal terms of latitude variations were determined on the basis of phi data of 17 BIH/IMPS stations and x, y, z data of the BIH global solution during the years 1967-1978. Some models for local corrections R to the latitude introduced by the BIH are created. The corrections R obtained from the least squares adjustment from one year data appear to be the best. The present study shows that it is necessary to determine these more frequently than once a year or to compute them for all stations simultaneously with the ERP. This will be particularly important in view of the future re-reduction of past astrometric data.

  16. High-Latitude Ionospheric Dynamics During Conditions of Northward IMF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharber, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In order to better understand the physical processes operating during conditions of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), in situ measurements from the Dynamics Explorer-2 (low altitude) polar satellite and simultaneous observations from the auroral imager on the Dynamics Explorer-1 (high altitude) satellite were used to investigate the relationships between optical emissions, particle precipitation, and convective flows in the high-latitude ionosphere. Field aligned current and convective flow patterns during IMF north include polar cap arcs, the theta aurora or transpolar arc, and the 'horse-collar' aurora. The initial part of the study concentrated on the electrodynamics of auroral features in the horse-collar aurora, a contracted but thickened emission region in which the dawn and dusk portions can spread to very high latitudes, while the latter part focused on the evolution of one type of IMF north auroral pattern to another, specifically the quiet-time horse-collar pattern to a theta aurora.

  17. Assessment of Plasma Transport and Convection at High Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    The high-latitude ionosphere is strongly coupled to the thermosphere and magnetosphere. The magnetospheric coupling occurs via electric fields, field-aligned currents, and particle precipitation. Owing to the interaction of the shocked solar wind with the geomagnetic field, an electric potential difference is generated across the tail of the magnetosphere, with the resulting electric field pointing from dawn to dusk. Energetic particle precipitation from the magnetosphere in the auroral region leads to the creation of ionization and to electron, ion, and neutral gas heating. In order to assess the current understanding of plasma transport and convection at high latitudes, it is necessary to take account of the strong coupling between the ionosphere, thermosphere, and magnetosphere.

  18. An absence of fast radio bursts at intermediate galactic latitudes

    CERN Document Server

    Petroff, E; Johnston, S; Bailes, M; Barr, E D; Bates, S D; Bhat, N D R; Burgay, M; Burke-Spolaor, S; Champion, D; Coster, P; Flynn, C; Keane, E F; Keith, M J; Kramer, M; Levin, L; Ng, C; Possenti, A; Stappers, B W; Tiburzi, C; Thornton, D

    2014-01-01

    Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are an emerging class of bright, highly dispersed radio pulses. Recent work by Thornton et al. (2013) has revealed a population of FRBs in the High Time Resolution Universe (HTRU) survey at high Galactic latitudes. A variety of progenitors have been proposed including cataclysmic events at cosmological distances, Galactic flare stars, and terrestrial radio frequency interference. Here we report on a search for FRBs at intermediate Galactic latitudes ($-15^{\\circ}$ $< b <$ 15$^{\\circ}$) in data taken as part of the HTRU survey. No FRBs were discovered in this region. Several effects such as dispersion, scattering, sky temperature and scintillation decrease the sensitivity by more than 3$\\sigma$ in $\\sim$20\\% of survey pointings. Including all of these effects, we exclude the hypothesis that FRBs are uniformly distributed on the sky with 99\\% confidence. This low probability implies that additional factors -- not accounted for by standard Galactic models -- must be included to eas...

  19. A latitude-dependent wind model for Mira's cometary head

    CERN Document Server

    Raga, A C; De Colle, F; Esquivel, A; Kajdic, P; Rodríguez-González, A; Velázquez, P F

    2008-01-01

    We present a 3D numerical simulation of the recently discovered cometary structure produced as Mira travels through the galactic ISM. In our simulation, we consider that Mira ejects a steady, latitude-dependent wind, which interacts with a homogeneous, streaming environment. The axisymmetry of the problem is broken by the lack of alignment between the direction of the relative motion of the environment and the polar axis of the latitude-dependent wind. With this model, we are able to produce a cometary head with a ``double bow shock'' which agrees well with the structure of the head of Mira's comet. We therefore conclude that a time-dependence in the ejected wind is not required for reproducing the observed double bow shock.

  20. Orbital control of low-latitude seasonality during the Eemian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, A.; Paul, A.; Nyberg, J.; Oba, T.; Lundberg, J.; Schrag, D.; Taggart, B.

    2003-01-01

    We used Sr/Ca and stable isotope data from well dated and preserved corals from the northeastern Caribbean to determine the seasonal environmental conditions for four continuous years during the Eemian, the last time the Earth was in a prolonged warm phase. We determined that the seasonal range in SST during the Eemian was 25??-30?? C. This is ???1-2?? larger than at present and caused primarily by winter cooling and, only to a small degree, by summer warming. As climate modeling studies indicate, the bias towards colder winters can be explained by changes in low latitude insolation induced by altered orbital parameters, modulated by atmospheric CO2 levels that were lower than today. Milankovitch forcing at higher latitudes was probably less important.

  1. Cutoff latitude variation during solar proton events: Causes and consequences

    CERN Document Server

    Tyssøy, H Nesse

    2016-01-01

    To accurately quantify the effect of solar proton events (SPEs) on the atmosphere requires a good estimate of the particle energy deposition in the middle atmosphere (60- 100 km) and how the energy is distributed globally. Protons in the energy range 1-20MeV, depositing their energy in the middle atmosphere, are subject to more complex dynamics with strong day-night asymmetries compared to higher-energy particles. Our study targets six SPEs from 2003 to 2012. By using measurements from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector on all available Polar Orbit Environment Satellites (POES), we show that in the main phase of geomagnetic storms the dayside cutoff latitudes are pushed poleward, while the nightside cutoff latitudes have the opposite response, resulting in strong day-night asymmetries in the energy deposition. These features cannot bemeasured by the frequently used Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Assuming that the protons impact the polar atmosphere homogeneously above a...

  2. Physiological and behavioral adaptations in bats living at high latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Justin G; McGuire, Liam P; Boyles, Esmarie; Reimer, Jesika P; Brooks, Christopher A C; Rutherford, Robert W; Rutherford, Teresa A; Whitaker, John O; McCracken, Gary F

    2016-10-15

    Widespread animals at the extremes of the species' distribution experience ecological constraints different than individuals in the core of the distribution. For example, small endotherms at very high latitudes face short summers with cool temperatures and a lack of true darkness. In particular, insectivorous bats at high latitudes may experience constraints because of their unique life history traits, and may have different energy requirements than bats at lower latitudes. To evaluate the extent of these differences, we estimated an energy budget and refueling rates for reproductively active female little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) roosting in buildings in eastern Alaska (~63°N). Physiological parameters (torpor use and metabolic rates) and daily energy expenditures (25.7±5.3kJd(-1)) were similar to, or slightly lower than, conspecifics at lower latitudes. Northern little brown bats foraged for less time than southerly conspecifics, but measurements of plasma β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations suggest that northern bats refuel at a rate considerably higher than those to the south. It appears that high refueling rates (and therefore foraging intensity) involve a dietary shift to orb-weaver spiders, which are abundant and likely offer higher energetic benefit than the small, flying insects consumed by individuals in other parts of the distribution. Environmental factors may limit species' distributions, but our results provide an example of a population at the limit of their geographic range that has compensated for environmental challenges by adopting unique behavioral strategies while the underlying physiology (including daily energy expenditure) remains similar to populations at the core of the species' range. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Specialization of mutualistic interaction networks decreases toward tropical latitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleuning, M.; Fründ, J.; Klein, A.-M.

    2012-01-01

    ] or differences in plant diversity [10, 11]. Thus, the direction of the latitudinal specialization gradient remains contentious. With an unprecedented global data set, we investigated how biotic specialization between plants and animal pollinators or seed dispersers is associated with latitude, past...... to low plant diversity. This could explain why the latitudinal specialization gradient is reversed relative to the latitudinal diversity gradient. Low mutualistic network specialization in the tropics suggests higher tolerance against extinctions in tropical than in temperate communities....

  4. Energy-Efficient Office Buildings at High Latitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerum, V.

    1996-12-31

    This doctoral thesis describes a method for energy efficient office building design at high latitudes and cold climates. The method combines daylighting, passive solar heating, solar protection, and ventilative cooling. The thesis focuses on optimal design of an equatorial-facing fenestration system. A spreadsheet framework linking existing simplified methods is used. The daylight analysis uses location specific data on frequency distribution of diffuse daylight on vertical surfaces to estimate energy savings from optimal window and room configurations in combination with a daylight-responsive electric lighting system. The passive solar heating analysis is a generalization of a solar load ratio method adapted to cold climates by combining it with the Norwegian standard NS3031 for winter months when the solar savings fraction is negative. The emphasis is on very high computational efficiency to permit rapid and comprehensive examination of a large number of options early in design. The procedure is illustrated for a location in Trondheim, Norway, testing the relative significance of various design improvement options relative to a base case. The method is also tested for two other locations in Norway, at latitudes 58 and 70 degrees North. The band of latitudes between these limits covers cities in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia, Finland, Russia, and Northern Japan. A comprehensive study of the ``whole building approach`` shows the impact of integrated daylighting and low-energy design strategies. In general, consumption of lighting electricity may be reduced by 50-80%, even at extremely high latitudes. The reduced internal heat from electric lights is replaced by passive solar heating. 113 refs., 85 figs., 25 tabs.

  5. Summertime total ozone variations over middle and polar latitudes

    OpenAIRE

    Fioletov, Vitali E.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2005-01-01

    The statistical relationship between springtime and summertime ozone over middle and polar latitudes is analyzed using zonally averaged total ozone data. Shortterm variations in springtime midlatitude ozone demonstrate only a modest correlation with springtime polar ozone variations. However by early summer, ozone variations throughout the extratropics are highly correlated. Analysis of correlation functions indicates that springtime midlatitude ozone, not polar ozone, is the best predictor f...

  6. Specialization of mutualistic interaction networks decreases toward tropical latitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleuning, Matthias; Fründ, Jochen; Klein, Alexandra-Maria

    2012-01-01

    ] or differences in plant diversity [10, 11]. Thus, the direction of the latitudinal specialization gradient remains contentious. With an unprecedented global data set, we investigated how biotic specialization between plants and animal pollinators or seed dispersers is associated with latitude, past...... that current conditions have a stronger effect on biotic specialization than historical community stability. Biotic specialization decreased with increasing local and regional plant diversity. This suggests that high specialization of mutualistic interactions is a response of pollinators and seed dispersers...

  7. The High Latitude D Region During Electron Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargreaves, J. K.; Collis, P. N.; Korth, A.

    1984-01-01

    The fluxes of energetic electrons entering the high-latitude atmosphere during auroral radio absorption events and their effect on the electron density in the auroral D region are discussed. An attempt was made to calculate the radio absorption during precipitation events from the fluxes of energetic electrons measured at geosynchronous orbit, and then to consider the use of absorption measurements to indicate the magnetospheric particle fluxes, the production rates, and electron densities in the D region.

  8. High latitude D region during electron precipitation events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hargreaves, J.K.; Collis, P.N.; Korth, A.

    1984-05-01

    The fluxes of energetic electrons entering the high-latitude atmosphere during auroral radio absorption events and their effect on the electron density in the auroral D region are discussed. An attempt was made to calculate the radio absorption during precipitation events from the fluxes of energetic electrons measured at geosynchronous orbit, and then to consider the use of absorption measurements to indicate the magnetospheric particle fluxes, the production rates, and electron densities in the D region.

  9. Boundary Current and Mixing Processes in The High Latitude Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Boundary Current and Mixing Processes in The High Latitude Oceans Robin D. Muench Earth & Space Research 1910 Fairview Ave E., Ste 210 Seattle...Thorpe and Ozmidov length scales. Journal of Geophysical Research , 87, 9601-9613. Galbraith, P.S., and D.E. Kelley, 1996: Identifying overturns in...and near Marguerite Bay during winter 2003: A SO GLOBEC study. Deep-Sea Research 2, 54. Padman, L., S.L. Howard, and R.D. Muench, 2006a: Internal

  10. Decision theory and decision behaviour

    CERN Document Server

    Rapoport, Anatol

    1998-01-01

    The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.

  11. Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

    2012-06-01

    Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

  12. Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    2016-08-01

    The latitude of landfall for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is examined in the fully coupled half-degree version of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for warm future climate simulations. Two regions are examined: U.S. West Coast/North Pacific ARs and United Kingdom/North Atlantic ARs. Changes in AR landfall-latitude reflect changes in the atmospheric steering flow. West Coast U.S. ARs are projected to push equatorward in response to the subtropical jet climate change. UK AR response is dominated by eddy-driven jets and is seasonally dependent. UK simulated AR response is modest in the winter with the largest relative changes occurring in the seasonal transition months. Precipitation associated with ARs is also projected to increase in intensity under global warming. CCSM4 projects a marked shift to higher rainfall rates for Southern California. Small to modest rainfall rates may increase for all UK latitudes, for the Pacific Northwest, and central and northern California.

  13. Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Huey, Raymond B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Haak, David C; Martin, Paul R

    2008-05-06

    The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.

  14. Mountain biodiversity patterns at low and high latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molau, Ulf

    2004-11-01

    This paper presents an overview of mountain biodiversity at a multitude of scales in space, time, and function. Even though species richness is usually the focal component in nature conservation, genetic diversity within species is equally important. The small-scale distribution of species in the tropical Andes, as exemplified by the plant genera Calceolaria and Bartsia, contrasts against the situation in high-latitude mountains, e.g., the Scandes, where species have wide ranges and many are circumpolar. Recent studies on alpine plants based on molecular methods show that the intraspecific genetic diversity tends to increase with latitude, a situation brought about by the glaciation history with repeated contraction-expansion episodes of species' distributions. In tropical mountains, species distributions are geographically much narrower, often as a result of relatively recent, local speciation. Thus, whereas species richness in mountains decreases from the Equator towards the poles, genetic diversity shows the opposite trend. Finally, a comparison of ecosystem diversity in low- and high-latitude mountain ranges (tropical Andes vs. Scandes) shows that the landscapes differ profoundly with regard to timberline ecotones, snow distribution, and climate variables, and are subject to widely different impacts of global change

  15. Ionosphere Scintillation at Low and High Latitudes (Modelling vs Measurement)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béniguel, Yannick

    2016-04-01

    This paper will address the problem of scintillations characteristics, focusing on the parameters of interest for a navigation system. Those parameters are the probabilities of occurrence of simultaneous fading, the bubbles surface at IPP level, the cycle slips and the fades duration statistics. The scintillation characteristics obtained at low and high latitudes will be compared. These results correspond to the data analysis performed after the ESA Monitor ionosphere measurement campaign [1], [2]. A second aspect of the presentation will be the modelling aspect. It has been observed that the phase scintillation dominates at high latitudes while the intensity scintillation dominates at low latitudes. The way it can be reproduced and implemented in a propagation model (e.g. GISM model [3]) will be presented. Comparisons of measurements with results obtained by modelling will be presented on some typical scenarios. References [1] R. Prieto Cerdeira, Y. Beniguel, "The MONITOR project: architecture, data and products", Ionospheric Effects Symposium, Alexandria (Va), May 2011 [2] Y. Béniguel, R Orus-Perez , R. Prieto-Cerdeira , S. Schlueter , S. Scortan, A. Grosu "MONITOR 2: ionospheric monitoring network in support to SBAS and other GNSS and scientific purposes", IES Conference, Alexandria (Va), May 2015-05-22 [3] Y. Béniguel, P. Hamel, "A Global Ionosphere Scintillation Propagation Model for Equatorial Regions", Journal of Space Weather Space Climate, 1, (2011), doi: 10.1051/swsc/2011004

  16. Star Formation and Molecular Clouds at High Galactic Latitude

    CERN Document Server

    McGehee, Peregrine M

    2008-01-01

    In this chapter we review the young stars and molecular clouds found at high Galactic latitudes $(|b| \\ge 30^\\circ)$. These are mostly associated with two large-scale structures on the sky, the Gould Belt and the Taurus star formation region, and a handful of molecular clouds including MBM 12 and MBM 20 which, as a population, consist of the nearest star formation sites to our Sun. There are also a few young stars that are found in apparent isolation far from any molecular cloud. The high latitude clouds are primarily translucent molecular clouds and diffuse Galactic cirrus with the majority of them seen at high latitude simply due to their proximity to the Sun. The rare exceptions are those, like the Draco and other intermediate or high velocity clouds, found significantly above or below the Galactic plane. We review the processes that result in star formation within these low density and extraplanar environments as well as the mechanisms for production of isolated T Tauri stars. We present and discuss the k...

  17. Demand chain management - The evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Ericsson

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM and Demand Chain Management (DCM are among the new and debated topics concerning logistics in the literature. The question considered in this paper is: “Are these concepts needed or will they just add to the confusion?” Lasting business concepts have always evolved in close interaction between business and academia. Different approaches start out in business and they are then, more or less si- multaneously, aligned, integrated, systemised and structured in academia. In this way a terminology (or language is provided that helps in further diffusion of the concepts. There is a lack of consensus on the definition of the concept of SCM. This may be one of the major reasons for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business. Relationships in SCM span from rather loose coalitions to highly structured virtual network integrations. DCM is a highly organised chain in which the key is mutual interdependence and partnership. The purpose is to create a distinctive competence for the chain as a whole that helps to identify and satisfy customer needs and wishes. The classical research concerning vertical marketing systems is very helpful in systemising the rather unstructured discussions in current SCM research. The trend lies in increasing competition between channels rather than between companies, which in turn leads to the creation of channels with a high degree of partnership and mutual interdependence between members. These types of channels are known as organised vertical marketing systems in the classic marketing channel research. The behaviour in these types of channels, as well as the formal and informal structures, roles in the network, power and dependence relations, etc. are well covered topics in the literature. The concept of vertical marketing systems lies behind the definition of demand chains and demand chain management proposed in this paper. A

  18. 14 CFR 1263.107 - Procedure to be followed when response to a demand is required before the General Counsel or...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... demand is required before the General Counsel or designate has reached a final decision. If a response to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Procedure to be followed when response to a demand is required before the General Counsel or designate has reached a final decision. 1263.107...

  19. Demand Side Management Performance Evaluation for Commercial Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Dong

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Demand Side Management in power systems plays an important role in ensuring a reliable power supply and protecting the environment. Demand Side Management in the commercial sector is vital for sustainable development during China’s industrial restructuring. A hybrid multi-criteria decision making framework for evaluating Demand Side Management performance of commercial enterprises is proposed from a sustainability perspective. A fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is employed to determine the weights of the criteria and a fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is applied to rank Demand Side Management performance. An evaluation index system is built, containing economic, social, environmental and technical criteria associated with 15 sub-criteria. Four groups of expert panels from government departments, research institutions, electricity utilities and commercial enterprises gave judgments on criteria weights and criteria performances for alternatives. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid framework was demonstrated through a case study in Beijing, in which Demand Side Management performances of four alternatives were ranked. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that the hybrid framework is robust.

  20. Microphysical Ice Crystal Properties in Mid-Latitude Frontal Cirrus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlage, Romy; Jurkat, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Minikin, Andreas; Weigel, Ralf; Molleker, Sergej; Klingebiel, Marcus; Borrmann, Stephan; Luebke, Anna; Krämer, Martina; Kaufmann, Stefan; Schäfler, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Cirrus clouds modulate the climate by reflection of shortwave solar radiation and trapping of longwave terrestrial radiation. Their net radiative effect can be positive or negative depending on atmospheric and cloud parameters including ice crystal number density, size and shape. Latter microphysical ice crystal properties have been measured during the mid-latitude cirrus mission ML-CIRRUS with a set of cloud instruments on the new research aircraft HALO. The mission took place in March/April 2014 with 16 flights in cirrus formed above Europe and the Atlantic. The ice clouds were encountered at altitudes from 7 to 14 km in the typical mid-latitude temperature range. A focus of the mission was the detection of frontal cirrus linked to warm conveyor belts (WCBs). Within WCBs, water vapor is transported in the warm sector of an extra-tropical cyclone from the humid boundary layer to the upper troposphere. Cirrus cloud formation can be triggered in the WCB outflow region at moderate updraft velocities and additionally at low updrafts within the high pressure system linked to the WCB. Due to their frequent occurrence, WCBs represent a major source for regions of ice supersaturation and cirrus formation in the mid-latitudes. Here, we use data from the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer with detection for POLarization (CAS-POL) and the Cloud Combination Probe (CCP), combining a Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP) and a greyscale Cloud Imaging Probe (CIPgs) to investigate the ice crystal distribution in the size range from 0.5 µm to 1 mm. We derive microphysical cirrus properties in mid-latitude warm front cirrus. Further, we investigate their variability and their dependence on temperature and relative humidity. Finally, we compare the microphysical properties of these frontal cirrus to cirrus clouds that formed at low updrafts within high pressure systems or at high updraft velocities in lee waves. We quantify statistically significant differences in cirrus properties formed in these

  1. Use of radio occultation to probe the high latitude ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Mannucci

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available We have explored the use of COSMIC data to provide valuable scientific information on the ionospheric impacts of energetic particle precipitation during geomagnetic storms. Ionospheric electron density in the E region, and hence ionospheric conductivity, is significantly altered by precipitating particles from the magnetosphere. This has global impacts on the thermosphere-ionosphere because of the important role of conductivity on high latitude Joule heating. Two high-speed stream (HSS and two coronal mass ejection (CME storms are examined with the COSMIC data. We find clear correlation between geomagnetic activity and electron density retrievals from COSMIC. At nighttime local times, the number of profiles with maximum electron densities in the E layer (below 200 km altitude is well correlated with geomagnetic activity. We interpret this to mean that electron density increases due to precipitation are captured by the COSMIC profiles. These "E layer dominant ionosphere" (ELDI profiles have geomagnetic latitudes that are consistent with climatological models of the auroral location. For the two HSS storms, that occurred in May of 2011 and 2012, a strong hemispheric asymmetry is observed, with nearly all the ELDI profiles found in the southern, less sunlit, hemisphere. Stronger aurora and precipitation have been observed before in winter hemispheres, but the degree of asymmetry deserves further study. For the two CME storms, occurring in July and November of 2012, large increases in the number of ELDI profiles are found starting in the storm's main phase but continuing for several days into the recovery phase. Analysis of the COSMIC profiles was extended to all local times for the July 2012 CME storm by relaxing the ELDI criterion and instead visually inspecting all profiles above 50° magnetic latitude for signatures of precipitation in the E region. For nine days during the July 2012 period, we find a signature of precipitation occurs nearly

  2. Ultraviolet light exposure influences skin cancer in association with latitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, Miguel; Araya, María C; Caba, Fresia; Rojas, Elisa; Calaf, Gloria M

    2011-04-01

    The increase in the amount of solar ultraviolet (UV) light that reaches the earth is considered to be responsible for the worldwide increase in skin cancer. It has been reported that excessive levels of UVA and UVB light have multiple effects, which can be harmful to humans. Experimental measurements were obtained using wide-band solar light YES biometers from 2006 to 2009 in Arica, Chile and from 2003 to 2006 in Valdivia, Chile, both instruments having been calibrated according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and integrated into the Chilean Meteorological Organization network. To explain the possible effect of radiation on skin cancer, revised pathological reports in Arica and Valdivia were analyzed. In Arica, data on men and women were collected between 1997 and 1998-2002, and in Valdivia, between 1997-2000 and 2001-2007. In this study, comparative values of ultraviolet index (UVI) from the above datasets, were analyzed. Arica is a city located in the subtropical zone of northern Chile, 25 meters above sea level, with a latitude of 18˚49'S and a longitude of 70˚19'W. It has a microclimate characterized by stable meteorological conditions throughout the year, including low precipitation (<5 mm per decade), predictable winds, a high percentage of clear sky days and high ground reflectivity due to the presence of light sand. Due to its location near sea level, the population performs a great number of outdoor activities. Valdivia is a city located in the southern part of Chile, 19 meters above sea level with a latitude of 39˚38'S and a longitude of 73˚5'W. The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between latitude and the risk of skin cancer in two cities with different latitudes. The incidence of skin cancer per 100,000 persons significantly (P<0.05) increased in both genders between the periods 1997-2000 and 2001-2007 in Arica. However, it decreased in men between the periods 1993-1997 and 1998-2002 in Valdivia. The results

  3. DataBase on demand

    CERN Document Server

    Aparicio, Ruben Gaspar; Coterillo Coz, I

    2012-01-01

    At CERN a number of key database applications are running on user-managed MySQL database services. The database on demand project was born out of an idea to provide the CERN user community with an environment to develop and run database services outside of the actual centralised Oracle based database services. The Database on Demand (DBoD) empowers the user to perform certain actions that had been traditionally done by database administrators, DBA's, providing an enterprise platform for database applications. It also allows the CERN user community to run different database engines, e.g. presently open community version of MySQL and single instance Oracle database server. This article describes a technology approach to face this challenge, a service level agreement, the SLA that the project provides, and an evolution of possible scenarios.

  4. DataBase on Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar Aparicio, R.; Gomez, D.; Coterillo Coz, I.; Wojcik, D.

    2012-12-01

    At CERN a number of key database applications are running on user-managed MySQL database services. The database on demand project was born out of an idea to provide the CERN user community with an environment to develop and run database services outside of the actual centralised Oracle based database services. The Database on Demand (DBoD) empowers the user to perform certain actions that had been traditionally done by database administrators, DBA's, providing an enterprise platform for database applications. It also allows the CERN user community to run different database engines, e.g. presently open community version of MySQL and single instance Oracle database server. This article describes a technology approach to face this challenge, a service level agreement, the SLA that the project provides, and an evolution of possible scenarios.

  5. Energy demand modeling for Uzbekistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bobur Khodjaev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to energy demand forecasting in Uzbekistan. Studies show that in spite of the abundant reserves of hydrocarbons, low energy efficiency can have an adverse impact on energy security in Uzbekistan in the future. Oil and gas are the main primary energy source and they ensure energy security of Uzbekistan. Energy demand forecasting is essential in order to develop an effective energy policy. Such forecast can be useful to plan oil and gas production volumes, to identify priorities for the industrial modernization and to create favorable conditions for sustainable economic development in the future. Author proposes model based on translog function for developing medium-and long-term development programs in energy sector and the modernization and technological re-equipment of industry.

  6. Disruptive innovation: the demand side.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havighurst, Clark C

    2008-01-01

    The notion of disruptive innovation provides a welcome framework for considering the prospects for low-cost alternatives in American medicine. Such innovations as have been seen, however, are largely the result of demand by patients paying their own bills because they have high-deductible coverage or are uninsured. Many other cost-saving innovations are discouraged by financing systems that are themselves largely immune to competition from disruptive innovators.

  7. Demand controlled ventilation; Behovsstyrt ventilasjon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Henning Holm

    2006-07-01

    The terms CAV and VAV have been known terms for many years in the ventilation business. The terms are also included in building regulations, but the time is now right to focus on demand controlled ventilation (DCV). The new building regulations and the accompanying energy framework underline the need for a more nuanced thinking when it comes to controlling ventilation systems. Descriptions and further details of the ventilation systems are provided (ml)

  8. Fish demand and supply projections

    OpenAIRE

    Sverdrup-Jensen, S.

    1997-01-01

    It has been predicted that the global demand for fish for human consumption will increase by more than 50% over the next 15 years. The FAO has projected that the increase in supply will originate primarily from marine fisheries, aquaculture and to a lesser extent from inland fisheries, but with a commensurate price increase. However, there are constraints to increased production in both marine and inland fisheries, such as overfishing, overexploitation limited potential increase and environme...

  9. Investigating Comparative Advantages of Advance Demand Information in Presence of Heterogeneous Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Bisheng; Larsen, Christian

    The paper studies aspects of advance demand information and heterogeneous demand in a mathematical model of an inventory system. The concept advance demand information is that customers ahead in time of actual demand place their orders. The concept heterogeneous demand refers to that there are di......The paper studies aspects of advance demand information and heterogeneous demand in a mathematical model of an inventory system. The concept advance demand information is that customers ahead in time of actual demand place their orders. The concept heterogeneous demand refers...

  10. Energy demand and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

    1981-09-01

    During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

  11. The impact of principles-based versus rules-based accounting standards on auditors' motivations and evidence demands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peytcheva, M.; Majoor, G.C.M. (Barbara); Wright, A.M.

    2014-01-01

    Auditing research has investigated the effects of different accounting standards on auditors' decisions to constrain aggressive reporting by clients. Missing from this literature is evidence on how the type of accounting standard influences auditors' cognitive motivations and demand for audit

  12. Study on Customer Demands for Product Innovation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Zhiyong; YANG Mingzhong; LI Yibing; LI Jun

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the satisfaction degree of customers' individual demands for products and reduce the risk of the product innovation, the characteristics of customer demands for product innovation are analyzed, and the type and content of customer demands are discussed. Then the framework of customer demands acquisition for product innovation is established. Finally, the prototype system of customer demands information acquisition and product customization for product innovation which takes mobile phone as the example is developed successfully.

  13. Design of ecoregional monitoring in conservation areas of high-latitude ecosystems under contemporary climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Land ownership in Alaska includes a mosaic of federally managed units. Within its agency’s context, each unit has its own management strategy, authority, and resources of conservation concern, many of which are migratory animals. Though some units are geographically isolated, many are nevertheless linked by paths of abiotic and biotic flows, such as rivers, air masses, flyways, and terrestrial and aquatic migration routes. Furthermore, individual land units exist within the context of a larger landscape pattern of shifting conditions, requiring managers to understand at larger spatial scales the status and trends in the synchrony and spatial concurrence of species and associated suitable habitats. Results of these changes will determine the ability of Alaska lands to continue to: provide habitat for local and migratory species; absorb species whose ranges are shifting northward; and experience mitigation or exacerbation of climate change through positive and negative atmospheric feedbacks. We discuss the geographic and statutory contexts that influence development of ecological monitoring; argue for the inclusion of significant amounts of broad-scale monitoring; discuss the importance of defining clear programmatic and monitoring objectives; and draw from lessons learned from existing long-term, broad-scale monitoring programs to apply to the specific contexts relevant to high-latitude protected areas such as those in Alaska. Such areas are distinguished by their: marked seasonality; relatively large magnitudes of contemporary change in climatic parameters; and relative inaccessibility due to broad spatial extent, very low (or zero) road density, and steep and glaciated areas. For ecological monitoring to effectively support management decisions in high-latitude areas such as Alaska, a monitoring program ideally would be structured to address the actual spatial and temporal scales of relevant processes, rather than the artificial boundaries of individual land

  14. Decision on Bt-Brinjal: Issues of Legal Certainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chowdhury, Nupur; Srivastava, Nidhi

    2010-01-01

    The recent decision of the government of India to impose a moratorium on the release of Bt-Brinjal has been hailed by civil society and scientists alike as a victory for transparency and has demonstrated that the government is responsive to societal demands. This decision is also important since it

  15. A Study of Methods of Telecommunication Tariff Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An in-depth exploration has been made of telecommunication tariffand its decision support system. It is the first attempt to conduct such a study by the integrated use of econometrics, system emulation and system dynamics. A practically-demanded cost model of the telecommunication tariff decision is proposed. The system has been verified with real data.

  16. Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükrü Ada

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

  17. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  18. Magnetospheric effects in atmospheric electricity at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumilov, O. I.; Kasatkina, E. A.; Frank-Kamenetsky, A. V.; Raspopov, O. M.; Vasiljev, A. N.; Struev, A. G.

    2003-04-01

    Measurements of the vertical atmospheric electric field (Ez) made at auroral station Apatity (geomagnetic latitude: 63.8) and polar cap station Vostok, Antarctica (geomagnetic latitude: -89.3) in 2001-2002 have been analyzed. The measurements were made by a high-latitude computer-aided complex installed at Apatity in 2001. It consists of three spatially placed microbarographs for measurements of atmospheric waves, a device for air conductivity measurement and a device for measurement of vertical component of the atmospheric electric field. The computer-aided system permits to get information with a frequency of five times per second. The ground level atmospheric electric field was found to have systematic local diurnal and seasonal variations. Diurnal variations of atmospheric potential gradient were found to have a departure from the Carnegie curve. A distinct difference in the diurnal variation of atmospheric electric field has been observed also between disturbed (Kp>30) and extremely quiet (Kplatitude electric field variations appear to be the result of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Besides, we have found the similarity between the diurnal course of the atmospheric electric field under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and the diurnal variation of galactic cosmic rays. These results have been explained in terms of calculated effective Bz component of the interpalnetary magnetic field arising due to variation of the geomagnetic dipole axis inclination during the Earth's rotation. The results of analysis of the influence of extreme weather conditions (rain, snow, snowstorm, stormclouds, thunderstorms, lightning) on atmospheric electricity (electric field and conductivity) are also discussed. This work was supported by EC (grant INTAS 97-31008) and RFBR (grant 01-05-64850).

  19. Physical demands during folk dancing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigaeus, E; Kilbom, A

    1980-01-01

    This investigation was undertaken to evaluate the aerobic demands during one of the most popular and demanding Swedish folk dances the "hambo". Six men and six women, ranging in age from 22 to 32, participated. Their physical work capacity was investigated on a bicycle ergometer and a treadmill, using two to three submaximal and one maximal loads. All subjects were moderately well-trained and their average maximal oxygen uptake on the treadmill were 2.5 and 3.7 l/min (42.8 and 53.2 ml/kg . min-1) for women and men, respectively. When dancing the "hambo" the heart rate was telemetered, and the Douglas bag technique was used for measurements of pulmonary ventilation and oxygen uptake. The physical demand during "hambo" dancing was high in all subjects. Oxygen uptake was 38.5 and 37.3 ml/kg . min-1 and heart rate 179 and 172 in women and men, respectively. Women used 90% and men 70% of their maximal aerobic power obtained on the treadmill. The pulmonary ventilation and respiratory quotient of the female subjects were lower when dancing as compared to running, possibly because of voluntary restriction of the movements of the thoracic cage. Some popular Scandinavian folk dances are performed at a speed and with an activity pattern resembling the "hambo", while others are performed at a slower pace. The exercise intensity used in "hambo" is more than sufficient to induce training effects in the average individual provided that the dancing is performed at the frequency and for length of time usually recommended for physical training. For older or less fit people dances with a slow pace can be used for training purposes.

  20. Gamma-ray Source Stacking Analysis at Low Galactic Latitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cillis, Analia N.; /NASA, Goddard; Reimer, Olaf; /Stanford U., HEPL; Torres, Diego F.; /ICREA, Barcelona /Barcelona, IEEC

    2007-04-25

    We studied the problematic of uncertainties in the diffuse gamma radiation apparent in stacking analysis of EGRET data at low Galactic latitudes. Subsequently, we co-added maps of counts, exposure and diffuse background, and residuals, in varying numbers for different sub-categories of putatively and known source populations (like PSRs). Finally we tested for gamma-ray excess emission in those maps and attempt to quantify the systematic biases in such approach. Such kind of an analysis will help the classification processes of sources and source populations in the GLAST era.

  1. Earth's magnetosphere formed by the low-latitude boundary layer

    CERN Document Server

    Heikkila, W J

    2011-01-01

    The author argues that, after five decades of debate about the interactive of solar wind with the magnetosphere, it is time to get back to basics. Starting with Newton's law, this book also examines Maxwell's equations and subsidiary equations such as continuity, constitutive relations and the Lorentz transformation; Helmholtz' theorem, and Poynting's theorem, among other methods for understanding this interaction. Includes chapters on prompt particle acceleration to high energies, plasma transfer event, and the low latitude boundary layer More than 200 figures illustrate the text Includes a color insert.

  2. Production of secondary Deuterium in the atmosphere at various latitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papini, P. [Florence Univ. (Italy)]|[INFN, Florence (Italy); Grimani, C. [Perugia Univ. (Italy)]|[INFN, Perugia (Italy); Stephens, S.A. [Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bombay (International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements)

    1995-09-01

    Secondary deuterium in the atmosphere are produced in interactions by primary cosmic rays. The shape of their energy spectrum depends on the primary cosmic ray spectrum incident at the top of the atmosphere. At high energies, the spectral shape depends on the primary spectrum of helium and heavy nuclei. However, at very low energies, specially below the geomagnetic cut-off, the spectral shape depends on the evaporation and recoil processes and hence almost independent of the spectral shape of the primary radiation. It is undertaken a calculation of the secondary deuterium spectrum at small atmospheric depths at various latitudes and the results will be presented.

  3. Latitude distribution of nonradial pulsations in rapidly rotating B stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankov, S.; Mathias, P.; Domiciano de Souza, A., Jr.; Uytterhoeven, K.; Aerts, C.

    2004-05-01

    We present a method for the analysis of latitude distribution associated with temperature and/or velocity perturbations of the stellar surface due to non-radial pulsation (NRP) modes in rapidly rotating B stars. The technique is applied together with Fourier Doppler Imaging (FDI) to high resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio spectroscopic observations of ɛ Per. The main advantage of this approach is that it decomposed complex multi-periodic line profile variations into single components, allowing the detailed analysis of each mode seperately. We study the 10.6-d-1 frequency that is particularly important for modal analysis of non-radial pulsations in the star.

  4. How Altitude and Latitude Control Dune Morphometry on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Gall, A.; Hayes, A.; Ewing, R.; Janssen, M. A.; Radebaugh, J.; Savage, C.; Encrenaz, P.

    2011-01-01

    Dune fields are one of the dominant landforms and represent the largest known organic reservoir on Titan. SAR-derived topography show that Titan's dune terrains tend to occupy the lowest altitude areas in equatorial regions occurring at mean elevations between approx.-400 and 0 m. In elevated dune terrains, there is a definite trend towards a smaller dune to interdune ratio, interpreted as due to limited sediment availability. A similar linear correlation is observed with latitude, suggesting that the quantity of windblown sand in the dune fields tends to decrease as one moves farther north. These findings place important constraints on Titan's geology and climate.

  5. Emotional labor demands and compensating wage differentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glomb, Theresa M; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Rotundo, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The concept of emotional labor demands and their effects on workers has received considerable attention in recent years, with most studies concentrating on stress, burnout, satisfaction, or other affective outcomes. This study extends the literature by examining the relationship between emotional labor demands and wages at the occupational level. Theories describing the expected effects of job demands and working conditions on wages are described. Results suggest that higher levels of emotional labor demands are associated with lower wage rates for jobs low in cognitive demands and with higher wage rates for jobs high in cognitive demands. Implications of these findings are discussed. (c) 2004 APA

  6. What State Supply and Demand Studies Tell Us about Special Education Personnel Needs. Practice Brief. Spring 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Eve

    2011-01-01

    Critical to any comprehensive plan for addressing personnel shortages in the field of special education is the gathering of data on supply and demand at the state and local education agency (LEA) levels. Many states now conduct regular supply and demand studies in order to inform decisions regarding the recruitment, preparation and retention of…

  7. What State Supply and Demand Studies Tell Us about Special Education Personnel Needs. Practice Brief. Spring 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Eve

    2011-01-01

    Critical to any comprehensive plan for addressing personnel shortages in the field of special education is the gathering of data on supply and demand at the state and local education agency (LEA) levels. Many states now conduct regular supply and demand studies in order to inform decisions regarding the recruitment, preparation and retention of…

  8. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  9. Optimal Ordering and Pricing Policies for Seasonal Products: Impacts of Demand Uncertainty and Capital Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinzhao Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With a stochastic price-dependent market demand, this paper investigates how demand uncertainty and capital constraint affect retailer’s integrated ordering and pricing policies towards seasonal products. The retailer with capital constraint is normalized to be with zero capital endowment while it can be financed by an external bank. The problems are studied under a low and high demand uncertainty scenario, respectively. Results show that when demand uncertainty level is relatively low, the retailer faced with demand uncertainty always sets a lower price than the riskless one, while its order quantity may be smaller or larger than the riskless retailer’s which depends on the level of market size. When adding a capital constraint, the retailer will strictly prefer a higher price but smaller quantity policy. However, in a high demand uncertainty scenario, the impacts are more intricate. The retailer faced with demand uncertainty will always order a larger quantity than the riskless one if demand uncertainty level is high enough (above a critical value, while the capital-constrained retailer is likely to set a lower price than the well-funded one when demand uncertainty level falls within a specific interval. Therefore, it can be further concluded that the impact of capital constraint on the retailer’s pricing decision can be influenced by different demand uncertainty levels.

  10. Demand Response Valuation Frameworks Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heffner, Grayson

    2009-02-01

    While there is general agreement that demand response (DR) is a valued component in a utility resource plan, there is a lack of consensus regarding how to value DR. Establishing the value of DR is a prerequisite to determining how much and what types of DR should be implemented, to which customers DR should be targeted, and a key determinant that drives the development of economically viable DR consumer technology. Most approaches for quantifying the value of DR focus on changes in utility system revenue requirements based on resource plans with and without DR. This ''utility centric'' approach does not assign any value to DR impacts that lower energy and capacity prices, improve reliability, lower system and network operating costs, produce better air quality, and provide improved customer choice and control. Proper valuation of these benefits requires a different basis for monetization. The review concludes that no single methodology today adequately captures the wide range of benefits and value potentially attributed to DR. To provide a more comprehensive valuation approach, current methods such as the Standard Practice Method (SPM) will most likely have to be supplemented with one or more alternative benefit-valuation approaches. This report provides an updated perspective on the DR valuation framework. It includes an introduction and four chapters that address the key elements of demand response valuation, a comprehensive literature review, and specific research recommendations.

  11. Living with the extreme demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teppo Eskelinen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most of the ethical literature on extreme poverty suggests, that some, if not most, of the incomes of the residents of rich countries ought to be donated to the global poor. Yet complying with this ethical demand becomes increasingly more difficult as the changes in lifestyle in the (postindustrial north demand ever more consumption in order to obtain the necessities for survival in such societies. In this article, I will discuss Peter Singer's famous arguments for the ethical duty to donate one's possessions, and elaborate the conception of needs prevalent in both Singer's theory and the theories of many of his critics. My argument is that we have to recognise a category of needs called 'social necessities' that are neither luxuries nor basic needs. This leads to two main conclusions: first, the space for ethical deliberation on whether to donate to life-saving purposes is socially conditioned; and second, ethical strategies of redistribution ought to be accompanied with institutional changes, which also concern the conditions in wealthy countries.http://dx.doi.org/10.5324/eip.v7i1.1791

  12. Demand Side Bidding. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spahn, Andrew

    2003-12-31

    This document sets forth the final report for a financial assistance award for the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) to enhance coordination between the building operators and power system operators in terms of demand-side responses to Location Based Marginal Pricing (LBMP). Potential benefits of this project include improved power system reliability, enhanced environmental quality, mitigation of high locational prices within congested areas, and the reduction of market barriers for demand-side market participants. NARUC, led by its Committee on Energy Resources and the Environment (ERE), actively works to promote the development and use of energy efficiency and clean distributive energy policies within the framework of a dynamic regulatory environment. Electric industry restructuring, energy shortages in California, and energy market transformation intensifies the need for reliable information and strategies regarding electric reliability policy and practice. NARUC promotes clean distributive generation and increased energy efficiency in the context of the energy sector restructuring process. NARUC, through ERE's Subcommittee on Energy Efficiency, strives to improve energy efficiency by creating working markets. Market transformation seeks opportunities where small amounts of investment can create sustainable markets for more efficient products, services, and design practices.

  13. Positional demands of professional rugby.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Angus; Draper, Nick; Lewis, John; Gieseg, Steven P; Gill, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Rugby union is a physically intense intermittent sport coupled with high force collisions. Each position within a team has specific requirements which are typically based on speed, size and skill. The aim of this study was to investigate the contemporary demands of each position and whether they can explain changes in psychophysiological stress. Urine and saliva samples were collected before and after five selected Super 15 rugby games from 37 players. Total neopterin (NP), cortisol and immunoglobulin A were analysed by SCX-high performance liquid chromatography and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Global positioning system software provided distance data, while live video analysis provided impact data. All contemporary demands were analysed as events per minute of game time. Forwards were involved in more total impacts, tackles and rucks compared to backs (p cortisol and sIgA. The results indicate distance covered and number of impacts per minute of game time is position-dependent whereas changes in psychophysiological stress are independent. This information can be used to adapt training and recovery interventions to better prepare each position based on the physical requirements of the game.

  14. Timing Successive Product Introductions with Demand Diffusion and Stochastic Technology Improvement

    OpenAIRE

    R. Mark Krankel; Izak Duenyas; Roman Kapuscinski

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers a firm's decisions on the introduction timing for successive product generations. We examine the case where a firm introduces multiple generations of a durable product for which demand is characterized by a demand diffusion process. Under fixed introduction costs, we consider the case where available product technology improves stochastically. As such, delaying introduction to a later date may lead to the capture of further technology improvements, potentially at the cost...

  15. Millennial-scale interhemispheric asymmetry of low-latitude precipitation: Speleothem evidence and possible high-latitude forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianfeng; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Auler, Augusto S.; Cheng, Hai; Ito, Emi

    During the last glacial period, global climate was characterized by numerous millennial-scale abrupt changes. Mechanisms of these events, however, are not yet resolved. Here, we use phasing information between climate records from different localities to distinguish between mechanisms. We establish a 90,000 year-long oxygen isotopic record of cave calcite, with our previously reported and newly obtained data from Caverna Botuverá, southern Brazil. The record was precisely dated with uranium-series methods. Using independent absolute-dated chronologies, we compare the southern Brazil record with contemporaneous oxygen isotopic records of cave calcite from eastern China and the record of speleothem growth periods from northeastern Brazil. Our record anti-correlates remarkably with the eastern China profile, while it correlates positively with the northeastern Brazil one, on both millennial and orbital scales. Thus, rainfall patterns are antiphased between southern Brazil and eastern China but in-phase between the two Brazilian regions. The in-phase Brazilian relationship argues against a Super El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Super-ENSO) mechanism as modern rainfall at these sites is out of phase during ENSO years. Rather, the relationship among the three records is likely related to displacement in the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and associated asymmetry in Hadley circulation, which leads to an interhemispheric anti-phasing of rainfall between the southern and northern low latitudes. The abrupt climate events during the last glacial-interglacial cycle are probably triggered by meridional overturning circulation changes initiated in the high latitudes and then amplified through air-sea dynamics, resulting in the observed pattern of low-latitude precipitation.

  16. Response of thermosphere density to high-latitude forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Y.; Kosch, M. J.; Vickers, H.; Sutton, E. K.; Ogawa, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Solar wind-magnetospheric disturbances cause enhancements in the energy input to the high-latitude upper atmosphere through particle precipitation and Joule heating. As the upper atmosphere is heated and expanded during geomagnetically disturbed periods, the neutral density in the thermosphere increases at a fixed altitude. Conversely, the thermosphere contracts during the recovery phase of the disturbance, resulting in a decrease of the density. The main objectives of this study are (1) to determine the morphology of the global thermospheric density response to high-latitude forcing, and (2) to determine the recovery speed of the thermosphere density after geomagnetic disturbances. For (1), we use thermospheric density data measured by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite during 2000-2010. It is demonstrated that the density enhancement during disturbed periods occurs first in the dayside cusp region, and the density at other regions slowly follows it. The reverse process is observed when geomagnetic activity ceases; the density enhancement in the cusp region fades away first, then the global density slowly goes back to the quiet level. For (2), we analyze EISCAT Svalbard radar and Tromso UHF radar data to estimate thermospheric densities during the recovery phase of geomagnetic disturbances. We attempt to determine the time constant for the density recovery both inside and outside the cusp region.

  17. Solar Transients disturbing the Terrestrial Magnetic Environment at Higher Latitudes

    CERN Document Server

    Khan, Parvaiz A; Troshichev, O A; Waheed, Malik A; M., Aslam A; Gwal, A K

    2013-01-01

    Geomagnetic field variations during five major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 have been investigated in the present study. The SEP events of 01 oct 2001, 04 Nov 2001, 21 Apr 2002 and 14 May 2005 have been selected to study the geomagnetic field variations at two high-latitude stations, Thule and Resolute Bay of the northern polar cap. We have used the GOES protn flux in seven different energy channels. All the proton events were associated with geoeffective or Earth directed CMEs that caused intense geomagnetic storms in response to geospace. We have taken high-latitude indices, AE and PC, under consideration and found fairly good correlation of thees with the ground magnetic field records during the five proton events. The departure of H component during the events were calculated from the quietest day of the month for each event. The correspondence of spectral index, inferred from event integrated spectra, with ground magnetic signatures along with Dst and PC indices have been broug...

  18. Statistical characteristics of low-latitude ionospheric scintillation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kangkang; Li, Guozhu; Ning, Baiqi; Hu, Lianhuan; Li, Hongke

    2015-03-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) L-band ionospheric scintillation produced by electron density irregularities in the ionospheric E- and F-regions, is mainly a low- and high-latitude phenomenon. In this study, the statistical behavior of GPS ionospheric scintillation over a Chinese low-latitude station Sanya (18.3°N, 109.6°E; dip lat: 12.8°N) has been investigated. A detailed study on the seasonal and solar activity dependence of scintillation occurrence during July 2004-December 2012 show that the amplitude scintillation pattern, with a maximum occurrence during equinox of solar maximum, agrees with plasma bubble observations by in situ satellites in this longitude. A few daytime periodic scintillation events are found during June solstice months of solar minimum. Interestingly, a significant equinoctial asymmetry of scintillation onset time is found in 2011-2012. The initiation of scintillation during September-October is on average earlier than that of March-April about 25 min. Meanwhile, the zonal drifts of irregularities estimated using two spatially separated GPS receivers over Sanya show a similar behavior during the two equinoxes, slowly decreasing from 150 m/s at post-sunset to 50 m/s near midnight. The possible mechanisms responsible for the occurrence characteristics of GPS scintillation over Sanya, and relevant aspects of the zonal drifts of the irregularities are discussed.

  19. Postmidnight ionospheric troughs in summer at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voiculescu, M.; Nygrén, T.; Aikio, A. T.; Vanhamäki, H.; Pierrard, V.

    2016-12-01

    In this article we identify possible mechanisms for the formation of postmidnight ionospheric troughs during summer, in sunlit plasma. Four events were identified in measurements of European Incoherent Scatter and ESR radars during CP3 experiments, when the ionosphere was scanned in a meridional plan. The spatial and temporal variation of plasma density, ion, and electron temperatures were analyzed for each of the four events. Super Dual Auroral Radar Network plasma velocity measurements were added, when these were available. For all high-latitude troughs the ion temperatures are high at density minima (within the trough), at places where the convection plasma velocity is eastward and high. There is no significant change in electron temperature inside the trough, regardless of its temporal evolution. We find that troughs in sunlit plasma form in two steps: the trough starts to form when energetic electron precipitation leads to faster recombination in the F region, and it deepens when entering a region with high eastward flow, producing frictional heating and further depleting the plasma. The high-latitude plasma convection plays an important role in formation and evolution of troughs in the postmidnight sector in sunlit plasma. During one event a second trough is identified at midlatitudes, with different characteristics, which is most likely produced by a rapid subauroral ion drift in the premidnight sector.

  20. Small-scale characteristics of extremely high latitude aurora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Cumnock

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We examine 14 cases of an interesting type of extremely high latitude aurora as identified in the precipitating particles measured by the DMSP F13 satellite. In particular we investigate structures within large-scale arcs for which the particle signatures are made up of a group of multiple distinct thin arcs. These cases are chosen without regard to IMF orientation and are part of a group of 87 events where DMSP F13 SSJ/4 measures emissions which occur near the noon-midnight meridian and are spatially separated from both the dawnside and duskside auroral ovals by wide regions with precipitating particles typical of the polar cap. For 73 of these events the high-latitude aurora consists of a continuous region of precipitating particles. We focus on the remaining 14 of these events where the particle signatures show multiple distinct thin arcs. These events occur during northward or weakly southward IMF conditions and follow a change in IMF By. Correlations are seen between the field-aligned currents and plasma flows associated with the arcs, implying local closure of the FACs. Strong correlations are seen only in the sunlit hemisphere. The convection associated with the multiple thin arcs is localized and has little influence on the large-scale convection. This also implies that the sunward flow along the arcs is unrelated to the overall ionospheric convection.

  1. Geomagnetic response to IMF and solar wind over different latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, A. M.; Tripathi, Sharad Chandra; Mansoori, Azad Ahmad; Waheed, Malik Abdul

    2016-07-01

    In this paper a study on the response of geomagnetic field characteristics to the solar wind variation during three solar cycles (SC 21, SC 22, SC 23) have been conducted in a long term scale. The difference in the response of two different latitudinal characteristic indices has been investigated. For the purpose we have considered the high latitude index AE and the mid-latitude aa index and both gives the knowledge about the perturbations in the geomagnetic field conditions. Eventually we can infer the idea about the ionospheric current system changes in response to the solar wind conditions. The variation found in the AE and aa indices have been found to follow a 11 year cycle as similar to the sunspot variation. Also the correlation between the annual means of the solar wind parameters velocity V, magnetic filed B and the composite parameters BV and BV ^{2 } have been calculated . A difference was found between the correlations obtained for the AE and aa indices. We could also see that the difference in correlation follows a cyclic pattern i.e. the large difference is found during the solar maxima while a small difference is observed during the minima.

  2. Magnetic field draping at the low-latitude magnetopause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, R. L.; Lotko, W.

    1991-01-01

    Magnetohydrodynamic simulations are used to investigate the structure of the low-latitude magnetopause for interplanetary magnetic field conditions with a dominant southward component. The structure is self-consistently calculated as an initial-value problem in which the system is allowed to evolve into a quasi-steady state. All components of the 3D velocity and magnetic field as well as compressibility, resistivity, and viscosity are included in the 2D calculation. The simulation model shows that magnetic field draping can occur at the magnetopause boundary when magnetic merging takes place in the presence of a tangential shear flow. For 'normal' (positive Bx) draping, the higher-latitude portion of the field lines are curved toward the sun on the magnetospheric side of the magnetopause and away from the sun on the magnetosheath side. The thickness of the normal draping structure scales with the viscosity. The field-aligned current system that accompanies normal magnetic draping is consistent with the sense of the region 1 currents that flow into the dayside ionosphere.

  3. Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanben, Han; Lihua, Ma; Hui, Hu; Rui, Wang; Youjin, Su

    2007-04-01

    After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.

  4. Silicon-carbon interactions in high latitude watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humborg, C.; Morth, C.; Struyf, E.; Conley, D. J.

    2008-12-01

    Changes in climate and hydrology in high latitude regions could liberate large amounts of previously inactive organic carbon (OC) during a prolonging thawing period, and new studies have shown that a great deal of this organic C is remineralized as CO2 during its transport to the sea. However, OC (with its origin in atmospheric carbon) and dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations in taiga and tundra rivers are intimately linked, and higher concentrations of weathering products are found in taiga and tundra rivers with a higher percentage of peat in their watersheds. It appears that the weathering regime of taiga and tundra watersheds is tightly linked to carbon-silicon interactions, in which carbon acts both as a weathering agent (soil CO2 from degradation of OC) and as a weathering product (DSi and bicarbonate). Whereas respiration of OC can be regarded as a positive feedback to global warming, weathering can be regarded as a negative feedback to global warming since atmospheric CO2 is converted to bicarbonate and thereby locked into the aquatic phase for geological time scales. Thus, bicarbonate export may compensate for significant amounts of exported OC thereby reducing the positive feedback to atmospheric CO2. However, the silicon-carbon interactions are not straight forward as suggested by classical inverse modelling,using the stochiometry of rock forming minerals as base, since high latitude wetlands contain a massive stock of amorphous silica (diatoms and phytoliths) buffering the actual DSi export, suggesting that the Si cycle is to a large extent biologically controlled.

  5. A polarized fast radio burst at low Galactic latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroff, E.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Keane, E. F.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Miller, R.; Andreoni, I.; Bailes, M.; Barr, E. D.; Bernard, S. R.; Bhandari, S.; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burgay, M.; Caleb, M.; Champion, D.; Chandra, P.; Cooke, J.; Dhillon, V. S.; Farnes, J. S.; Hardy, L. K.; Jaroenjittichai, P.; Johnston, S.; Kasliwal, M.; Kramer, M.; Littlefair, S. P.; Macquart, J. P.; Mickaliger, M.; Possenti, A.; Pritchard, T.; Ravi, V.; Rest, A.; Rowlinson, A.; Sawangwit, U.; Stappers, B.; Sullivan, M.; Tiburzi, C.; van Straten, W.; ANTARES Collaboration; Albert, A.; André, M.; Anghinolfi, M.; Anton, G.; Ardid, M.; Aubert, J.-J.; Avgitas, T.; Baret, B.; Barrios-Martí, J.; Basa, S.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bormuth, R.; Bourret, S.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Bruijn, R.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Capone, A.; Caramete, L.; Carr, J.; Celli, S.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coelho, J. A. B.; Coleiro, A.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Coyle, P.; Creusot, A.; Deschamps, A.; de Bonis, G.; Distefano, C.; di Palma, I.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Drouhin, D.; Eberl, T.; El Bojaddaini, I.; Elsässer, D.; Enzenhöfer, A.; Felis, I.; Fusco, L. A.; Galatà, S.; Gay, P.; Geißelsöder, S.; Geyer, K.; Giordano, V.; Gleixner, A.; Glotin, H.; Grégoire, T.; Gracia-Ruiz, R.; Graf, K.; Hallmann, S.; van Haren, H.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Hößl, J.; Hofestädt, J.; Hugon, C.; Illuminati, G.; James, C. W.; de Jong, M.; Jongen, M.; Kadler, M.; Kalekin, O.; Katz, U.; Kießling, D.; Kouchner, A.; Kreter, M.; Kreykenbohm, I.; Kulikovskiy, V.; Lachaud, C.; Lahmann, R.; Lefèvre, D.; Leonora, E.; Lotze, M.; Loucatos, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Marinelli, A.; Martínez-Mora, J. A.; Mathieu, A.; Mele, R.; Melis, K.; Michael, T.; Migliozzi, P.; Moussa, A.; Mueller, C.; Nezri, E.; Pǎvǎlaş, G. E.; Pellegrino, C.; Perrina, C.; Piattelli, P.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Quinn, L.; Racca, C.; Riccobene, G.; Roensch, K.; Sánchez-Losa, A.; Saldaña, M.; Salvadori, I.; Samtleben, D. F. E.; Sanguineti, M.; Sapienza, P.; Schnabel, J.; Seitz, T.; Sieger, C.; Spurio, M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Taiuti, M.; Tayalati, Y.; Trovato, A.; Tselengidou, M.; Turpin, D.; Tönnis, C.; Vallage, B.; Vallée, C.; van Elewyck, V.; Vivolo, D.; Vizzoca, A.; Wagner, S.; Wilms, J.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.; H.E.S.S. Collaboration; Abdalla, H.; Abramowski, A.; Aharonian, F.; Ait Benkhali, F.; Akhperjanian, A. G.; Andersson, T.; Angüner, E. O.; Arrieta, M.; Aubert, P.; Backes, M.; Balzer, A.; Barnard, M.; Becherini, Y.; Tjus, J. Becker; Berge, D.; Bernhard, S.; Bernlöhr, K.; Blackwell, R.; Böttcher, M.; Boisson, C.; Bolmont, J.; Bordas, P.; Bregeon, J.; Brun, F.; Brun, P.; Bryan, M.; Bulik, T.; Capasso, M.; Casanova, S.; Cerruti, M.; Chakraborty, N.; Chalme-Calvet, R.; Chaves, R. C. G.; Chen, A.; Chevalier, J.; Chrétien, M.; Colafrancesco, S.; Cologna, G.; Condon, B.; Conrad, J.; Cui, Y.; Davids, I. D.; Decock, J.; Degrange, B.; Deil, C.; Devin, J.; Dewilt, P.; Dirson, L.; Djannati-Ataï, A.; Domainko, W.; Donath, A.; Drury, L. O'c.; Dubus, G.; Dutson, K.; Dyks, J.; Edwards, T.; Egberts, K.; Eger, P.; Ernenwein, J.-P.; Eschbach, S.; Farnier, C.; Fegan, S.; Fernandes, M. V.; Fiasson, A.; Fontaine, G.; Förster, A.; Funk, S.; Füßling, M.; Gabici, S.; Gajdus, M.; Gallant, Y. A.; Garrigoux, T.; Giavitto, G.; Giebels, B.; Glicenstein, J. F.; Gottschall, D.; Goyal, A.; Grondin, M.-H.; Hadasch, D.; Hahn, J.; Haupt, M.; Hawkes, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henri, G.; Hermann, G.; Hervet, O.; Hinton, J. A.; Hofmann, W.; Hoischen, C.; Holler, M.; Horns, D.; Ivascenko, A.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jamrozy, M.; Janiak, M.; Jankowsky, D.; Jankowsky, F.; Jingo, M.; Jogler, T.; Jouvin, L.; Jung-Richardt, I.; Kastendieck, M. A.; Katarzyński, K.; Kerszberg, D.; Khélifi, B.; Kieffer, M.; King, J.; Klepser, S.; Klochkov, D.; Kluźniak, W.; Kolitzus, D.; Komin, Nu.; Kosack, K.; Krakau, S.; Kraus, M.; Krayzel, F.; Krüger, P. P.; Laffon, H.; Lamanna, G.; Lau, J.; Lees, J.-P.; Lefaucheur, J.; Lefranc, V.; Lemière, A.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Lenain, J.-P.; Leser, E.; Lohse, T.; Lorentz, M.; Liu, R.; López-Coto, R.; Lypova, I.; Marandon, V.; Marcowith, A.; Mariaud, C.; Marx, R.; Maurin, G.; Maxted, N.; Mayer, M.; Meintjes, P. J.; Meyer, M.; Mitchell, A. M. W.; Moderski, R.; Mohamed, M.; Mohrmann, L.; Morâ, K.; Moulin, E.; Murach, T.; de Naurois, M.; Niederwanger, F.; Niemiec, J.; Oakes, L.; O'Brien, P.; Odaka, H.; Öttl, S.; Ohm, S.; Ostrowski, M.; Oya, I.; Padovani, M.; Panter, M.; Parsons, R. D.; Pekeur, N. W.; Pelletier, G.; Perennes, C.; Petrucci, P.-O.; Peyaud, B.; Piel, Q.; Pita, S.; Poon, H.; Prokhorov, D.; Prokoph, H.; Pühlhofer, G.; Punch, M.; Quirrenbach, A.; Raab, S.; Reimer, A.; Reimer, O.; Renaud, M.; Reyes, R. De Los; Rieger, F.; Romoli, C.; Rosier-Lees, S.; Rowell, G.; Rudak, B.; Rulten, C. B.; Sahakian, V.; Salek, D.; Sanchez, D. A.; Santangelo, A.; Sasaki, M.; Schlickeiser, R.; Schulz, A.; Schüssler, F.; Schwanke, U.; Schwemmer, S.; Settimo, M.; Seyffert, A. S.; Shafi, N.; Shilon, I.; Simoni, R.; Sol, H.; Spanier, F.; Spengler, G.; Spies, F.; Stawarz, Ł.; Steenkamp, R.; Stegmann, C.; Stinzing, F.; Stycz, K.; Sushch, I.; Tavernet, J.-P.; Tavernier, T.; Taylor, A. M.; Terrier, R.; Tibaldo, L.; Tiziani, D.; Tluczykont, M.; Trichard, C.; Tuffs, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; Walt, D. J. Van Der; van Eldik, C.; van Rensburg, C.; van Soelen, B.; Vasileiadis, G.; Veh, J.; Venter, C.; Viana, A.; Vincent, P.; Vink, J.; Voisin, F.; Völk, H. J.; Vuillaume, T.; Wadiasingh, Z.; Wagner, S. J.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, R. M.; White, R.; Wierzcholska, A.; Willmann, P.; Wörnlein, A.; Wouters, D.; Yang, R.; Zabalza, V.; Zaborov, D.; Zacharias, M.; Zanin, R.; Zdziarski, A. A.; Zech, A.; Zefi, F.; Ziegler, A.; Żywucka, N.

    2017-08-01

    We report on the discovery of a new fast radio burst (FRB), FRB 150215, with the Parkes radio telescope on 2015 February 15. The burst was detected in real time with a dispersion measure (DM) of 1105.6 ± 0.8 pc cm-3, a pulse duration of 2.8^{+1.2}_{-0.5} ms, and a measured peak flux density assuming that the burst was at beam centre of 0.7^{+0.2}_{-0.1} Jy. The FRB originated at a Galactic longitude and latitude of 24.66°, 5.28° and 25° away from the Galactic Center. The burst was found to be 43 ± 5 per cent linearly polarized with a rotation measure (RM) in the range -9 magnetic field reversals along the line of sight, a decreased total electron column density from the Milky Way, or some combination of these effects. A lower Galactic DM contribution might explain why this burst was detectable whereas previous searches at low latitude have had lower detection rates than those out of the plane.

  6. Association of Job Demands with Work Engagement of Japanese Employees: Comparison of Challenges with Hindrances (J-HOPE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Akiomi; Kawakami, Norito; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Shimazu, Akihito; Miyaki, Koichi; Takahashi, Masaya; Kurioka, Sumiko; Eguchi, Hisashi; Tsuchiya, Masao; Enta, Kazuhiko; Kosugi, Yuki; Sakata, Tomoko; Totsuzaki, Takafumi

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Recent epidemiological research in Europe has reported that two groups of job demands, i.e., challenges and hindrances, are differently associated with work engagement. The purpose of the present study was to replicate the cross-sectional association of workload and time pressure (as a challenge) and role ambiguity (as a hindrance) with work engagement among Japanese employees. Methods Between October 2010 and December 2011, a total of 9,134 employees (7,101 men and 1,673 women) from 12 companies in Japan were surveyed using a self-administered questionnaire comprising the Job Content Questionnaire, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Generic Job Stress Questionnaire, short 10-item version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, short nine-item version of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, and demographic characteristics. Multilevel regression analyses with a random intercept model were conducted. Results After adjusting for demographic characteristics, workload and time pressure showed a positive association with work engagement with a small effect size (standardized coefficient [β] = 0.102, Cohen’s d [d] = 0.240) while role ambiguity showed a negative association with a large effect size (β = −0.429, d = 1.011). After additionally adjusting for job resources (i.e., decision latitude, supervisor support, co-worker support, and extrinsic reward), the effect size of workload and time pressure was not attenuated (β = 0.093, d = 0.234) while that of role ambiguity was attenuated but still medium (β = −0.242, d = 0.609). Conclusions Among Japanese employees, challenges such as having higher levels of workload and time pressure may enhance work engagement but hindrances, such as role ambiguity, may reduce it. PMID:24614682

  7. Association of job demands with work engagement of Japanese employees: comparison of challenges with hindrances (J-HOPE.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiomi Inoue

    Full Text Available Recent epidemiological research in Europe has reported that two groups of job demands, i.e., challenges and hindrances, are differently associated with work engagement. The purpose of the present study was to replicate the cross-sectional association of workload and time pressure (as a challenge and role ambiguity (as a hindrance with work engagement among Japanese employees.Between October 2010 and December 2011, a total of 9,134 employees (7,101 men and 1,673 women from 12 companies in Japan were surveyed using a self-administered questionnaire comprising the Job Content Questionnaire, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Generic Job Stress Questionnaire, short 10-item version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, short nine-item version of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, and demographic characteristics. Multilevel regression analyses with a random intercept model were conducted.After adjusting for demographic characteristics, workload and time pressure showed a positive association with work engagement with a small effect size (standardized coefficient [β] = 0.102, Cohen's d [d] = 0.240 while role ambiguity showed a negative association with a large effect size (β = -0.429, d = 1.011. After additionally adjusting for job resources (i.e., decision latitude, supervisor support, co-worker support, and extrinsic reward, the effect size of workload and time pressure was not attenuated (β = 0.093, d = 0.234 while that of role ambiguity was attenuated but still medium (β = -0.242, d = 0.609.Among Japanese employees, challenges such as having higher levels of workload and time pressure may enhance work engagement but hindrances, such as role ambiguity, may reduce it.

  8. The impact of task demand on visual word recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J; Zevin, J

    2014-07-11

    The left occipitotemporal cortex has been found sensitive to the hierarchy of increasingly complex features in visually presented words, from individual letters to bigrams and morphemes. However, whether this sensitivity is a stable property of the brain regions engaged by word recognition is still unclear. To address the issue, the current study investigated whether different task demands modify this sensitivity. Participants viewed real English words and stimuli with hierarchical word-likeness while performing a lexical decision task (i.e., to decide whether each presented stimulus is a real word) and a symbol detection task. General linear model and independent component analysis indicated strong activation in the fronto-parietal and temporal regions during the two tasks. Furthermore, the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula showed significant interaction effects between task demand and stimulus type in the pseudoword condition. The occipitotemporal cortex showed strong main effects for task demand and stimulus type, but no sensitivity to the hierarchical word-likeness was found. These results suggest that different task demands on semantic, phonological and orthographic processes can influence the involvement of the relevant regions during visual word recognition. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The psychological effects of empowerment strategies on consumers' product demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuchs, Christoph; Prandelli, Emanuela; Schreier, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Companies have recently begun to use the Internet in order to integrate their customers more actively into various phases of the new product development (NPD) process. One such strategy involves empowering customers to cooperate in selecting the product concepts to be marketed by the firm...... to select the products to be marketed will show stronger demand for the underlying products even though they are of identical quality in objective terms (and their subjective product evaluations are similar). This seemingly irrational finding can be observed because consumers develop a stronger feeling...... of psychological ownership of the products selected. The studies also identify two boundary conditions for this "empowerment - product demand" effect: It diminishes if the outcome of the joint decision-making process does not reflect consumers' preferences and if consumers do not feel that they have the relevant...

  10. The demand for children as a factor in fertility trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, A C

    1989-01-01

    Research studies conducted in the Philippines in 1987 indicate that various factors influence family size preferences and decisions. For instance, surveys found that child mortality, child sex preferences, and parental desire for security in old-age were positively correlated with fertility. On the other hand, maternal education, and the desire for financial and occupational status were inversely related to fertility. As the demand for children is a major determinant in fertility trends, it is important to understand the factors involved in the demand for children. Many of these factors can be subject to policy management, namely, improved education, health, nutrition, and greater participation of women in the labor force. Smaller families may become more desirable if favorable political, economic, and social climates are instituted.

  11. Prospects for European labour demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindley, R M

    1988-07-01

    The impact of economic and technological trends upon the level and structure of labor demand is examined, exploring the methods used to model the labor market and making special reference to demography and technology. Evidence on recent and prospective changes in labor demand is reviewed for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. The models used to explore future employment scenarios usually fail to incorporate the linkages required to fully analyze the various demographic-economic interactions. Further, this is not generally viewed as a limitation, given the time frame of most employment projections and their preoccupation with changes in the structure of labor demand. Medium-term multisectoral models tend to pay more attention to both demographic and technical change, but the treatment of both aspects is limited. The projections provide a framework for considering how both socioeconomic behavior and policy might change to achieve different outcomes. The greater a model's behavioral content, as expressed in its relationships between different variables, the greater the insight obtainable from simulation exercises. The 1st half of the 1970s was characterized by a reduction in German employment, representing the severest of European reactions to the oil crisis. The 2nd half of the decade recorded rapid growth in Italy and the Netherlands. The 1980s started with marked declines in Germany and the UK. Overall, the net gains of the 1970s were lost in the recession following the 2nd oil crisis. In none of the 5 countries studied does any realistic prospect emerge of achieving full employment before 2000. The most optimistic outcome is that unemployment will decline only slowly, it at all. The growth of both new forms and areas of employment will not compensate sufficiently for the loss of jobs elsewhere and the growth of labor supply. The industrial sector will continue to experience change in favor of the service sector but at a slower rate than during

  12. Driving demand for broadband networks and services

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, Raul L

    2014-01-01

    This book examines the reasons why various groups around the world choose not to adopt broadband services and evaluates strategies to stimulate the demand that will lead to increased broadband use. It introduces readers to the benefits of higher adoption rates while examining the progress that developed and emerging countries have made in stimulating broadband demand. By relying on concepts such as a supply and demand gap, broadband price elasticity, and demand promotion, this book explains differences between the fixed and mobile broadband demand gap, introducing the notions of substitution and complementarity between both platforms. Building on these concepts, ‘Driving Demand for Broadband Networks and Services’ offers a set of best practices and recommendations aimed at promoting broadband demand.  The broadband demand gap is defined as individuals and households that could buy a broadband subscription because they live in areas served by telecommunications carriers but do not do so because of either ...

  13. Global nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand outlook

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michel; Prud'homme

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of the world nitrogen fertilizer demand, high-lights trends in the global and regional developments of production capacity and provides a medium-term perspective of the global nitrogen supply/demand balance.

  14. Demands Set Upon Modern Cartographic Visualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Frangeš

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Scientific cartography has the task to develop and research new methods of cartographic visualization. General demands are set upon modern cartographic visualization, which encompasses digital cartography and computer graphics: legibility, clearness, accuracy, plainness and aesthetics. In this paper, it is explained in detail what demands should be met in order to satisfy the general demands set. In order to satisfy the demand of legibility, one should respect conditions of minimal sizes, appropriate graphical density and better differentiation of known features. Demand of clearness needs to be met by fulfilling conditions of simplicity, contrasting quality and layer arrangement of cartographic representation. Accuracy, as the demand on cartographic visualization, can be divided into positioning accuracy and accuracy signs. For fulfilling the demand of plainness, the conditions of symbolism, traditionalism and hierarchic organization should be met. Demand of aesthetics will be met if the conditions of beauty and harmony are fulfilled.

  15. THE ACCOUNTANT INFORMATION. DEMAND AND OFFER

    OpenAIRE

    Irina CHIRITA; Ioana ZAHEU

    2008-01-01

    The present paper is trying to correlate what Demand and Offer mean, from the economical point of view, which in the end tends towards the demand and offer of the accountant information. The objective of the demand and offer of accountant information is to promo te an efficient financial communication, objective that might be reached through the confrontation of the informational offer with the user’s demand. The information given by the enterprises are the basis of numerous economical and po...

  16. Cache County Water Demand/Supply Model

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, Trevor C.; Norby, Gregory J.; Thyagarajan, Laxman

    1996-01-01

    This report descibes a municipal water demand forecasting model for use in areas of mixed rural and urban housing types. A series of residential demand functions were derived which forecast water demand based on the ype and density of housing and season. Micro sampling techniques were used to correlate water use data and explanatory variable data for low, medium, and high density housing. The demand functions were...

  17. Study on Customer Demands for Product Innovation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Zhiyong; YANG Mingzhong; LI Yibing; LI Jun

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the satisfaction degree of customers' individual demands on products and reduce the risk of the product innovation, the characteristics of customer demands for product innovation are analyzed, and their type and content are discussed. Then the framework of customer demands acquisition for product innovation is established. Finally, the prototype system of customer demands information acquisition and product customization for product innovation which takes mobile phone as the example is developed successfully.

  18. Analysis of demand for vegetable in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Mohamed, Zainalabidin; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Radam, Alias

    2008-01-01

    The market information is important in facilitating marketing system from production to the downstream. The purpose of this study is to estimate the Malaysian consumers’ demand for vegetables. By using Household Expenditure Survey 2004/05 data, demands for 6 vegetables are analyzed via a multi-stage budgeting system. The estimated demand elasticities show that the demands for all vegetables are found to increase when per capita income rises. Most of the vegetables are found to respond substa...

  19. Chahla Chafiq, Demande au Miroir

    OpenAIRE

    Guilyardi, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Le regard est omniprésent dans le premier roman en français de Chahla Chafiq, écrivain et sociologue iranienne exilée en France depuis 1983, reconnue pour ses travaux sur l’islamisme. Le personnage central de Demande au miroir, Guita Salim, regarde la vie de sa fenêtre. « Entre la fenêtre et le voir, il y a toujours un écart », écrit Forough Farrokhzâd, poétesse persane qui illumina les années 1950-1960, dont la poésie traverse ce roman. Adolescente, dans une ruelle de Téhéran, la jeune héroï...

  20. Managing Demands for Social Engagement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glerup, Cecilie

    pressure on the biotech research organizations that find themselves in a jumble of demands to engage themselves with society. Mccarthy and Kelty, for instance, quote a nano-technologist for saying that he is afraid of “too much responsibility” (2010: 407). Based on a laboratory ethnography, this paper...... general public’ or ‘the troops’. The other lab has many diffuse ‘side-activities’ with bio-hackers, government and policy groups, but partly seems to engage in order to stay ahead of policy-makers and protect their core activity, which they find to be ‘basic research’. The paper finally argues...... that the way society’s expectations are managed have severe implications on how research projects are organized and prioritized among the organizations’ employees....

  1. Vendor-buyer ordering policy when demand is trapezoidal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Digeshkumar B. Shah

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A joint vendor-buyer strategy is analyzed which is beneficial to both the players in the supply chain. The demand is assumed to be trapezoidal. It is established numerically that the joint venture decreases the total cost of the supply chain when compared with the independent decision of the buyer. To entice the buyer to order more units, a permissible credit period is offered by the vendor to the buyer. A negotiation factor is incorporated to share the cost savings.

  2. 7 CFR 987.11 - Trade demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Trade demand. 987.11 Section 987.11 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA Order Regulating Handling Definitions § 987.11 Trade demand. Trade demand means...

  3. 7 CFR 3560.709 - Demand letter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demand letter. 3560.709 Section 3560.709 Agriculture... DIRECT MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Unauthorized Assistance § 3560.709 Demand letter. (a) If a... repayment schedule, the Agency will send the borrower a demand letter specifying: (1) The amount of...

  4. 7 CFR 981.21 - Trade demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Trade demand. 981.21 Section 981.21 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Definitions § 981.21 Trade demand. Trade demand means the quantity of almonds...

  5. 31 CFR 29.511 - Demand letters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Demand letters. 29.511 Section 29.511... Overpayments § 29.511 Demand letters. Except as provided in § 29.516(e), before starting collection action to recover an overpayment, the Benefits Administrator must send a demand letter that informs the debtor in...

  6. Genetic algorithms in seasonal demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Chodak, Grzegorz; Kwaśnicki, Witold

    2000-01-01

    The method of forecasting seasonal demand applying genetic algorithm is presented. Specific form of used demand function is shown in the first section of the article. Next the method of identification of the function parameters using genetic algorithms is discussed. In the final section an example of applying proposed method to forecast real demand process is shown.

  7. The Optimal Replenishment Policy under Trade Credit Financing with Ramp Type Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Qin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the optimal replenishment policy for the retailer with the ramp type demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing, which is not reported in the literatures. First, the two inventory models are developed under the above situation. Second, the algorithms are given to optimize the replenishment cycle time and the order quantity for the retailer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the optimal solutions and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The results show that if the value of production rate is small, the retailer will lower the frequency of putting the orders to cut down the order cost; if the production rate is high, the demand dependent production rate has no effect on the optimal decisions. When the trade credit is less than the growth stage time, the retailer will shorten the replenishment cycle; when it is larger than the breakpoint of the demand, within the maturity stage of the products, the trade credit has no effect on the optimal order cycle and the optimal order quantity.

  8. Millennial-scale interhemispheric asymmetry of low-latitude precipitation: speleothem evidences and possible high-latitude forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Auler, A.; Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.; Ito, E.

    2006-12-01

    A high resolution oxygen isotopic record of cave calcite, spanning the last 90,000 years, was obtained from Caverna Botuverá, southern Brazil. The record broadly follows local insolation changes and shows significant millennial-scale variation with amplitudes as large as 3 per mil. Tests for equilibrium conditions show that oxygen isotopic variations are a direct reflection of changes in rainwater values and temperatures at this low- latitude location. Established with independent absolute-dated uranium series chronologies, our record anti- correlates remarkably with the contemporaneous oxygen isotopic records of cave calcite from eastern China (anti-phase precipitation changes), but positively correlates with the record of speleothem growth periods from northeastern Brazil (in-phase precipitation changes) on millennial time scales. These observations suggest that a rainfall seesaw may have existed between the southern and northern low latitudes on millennial time scales in the past. This interhemipheric anti-phasing of rainfall is probably caused by feedbacks between North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and the intertropical convergence. The interplays affect not only North Atlantic climate but also result in the displacement of the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and associated asymmetry of the Hadley cell. The Brazilian speleothem records further indicate that millennial-scale abrupt climate change is largely tied to meridional shifts rather than zonal shifts, and are therefore unlikely to have been triggered by tropical Walker circulation changes.

  9. Modelling Demand Side Kelas Menengah Pemuda Kota Surabaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achmadi Achmadi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Middle class is an interesting topic in social studies to do a research. Based on Mckenzie, there are currently 45 million people in Indonesia can be categorized as middle class, and in 2030 will reach 135 million people. The middle class is the biggest support of drive economic growth from the demand side. This study aims to perform a simple modeling of middle-class’s cuncumption behavior, which study middle-class subculture in the city of Surabaya. This study uses an econometric tool called the logistic regression with two purchases decision, impulse buying and planned buying, as dependent variables in the model. Results of this study also show that the income effect variables, motivational variables and variable materialistic values ??consume has a significant and positive effect on impulse buying purchasing decisions. While product involvement variable have positive influence on planned purchases buying behavior.

  10. Break-even Analyses for Random Production and Demand Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marcus Schweitzer

    2002-01-01

    Break-even analyses are often used as controlling instruments. Typically, they are applied to support decision processes or to gain information for the control of profits and sales. Firstly, the study gives an overview of the basic accounting systems. Secondly, the study shows possible ways of performing break-even analyses for a single-stage, make-to-order production in the case of random production and demand structures. To model these structures, queueing systems are employed. As a general result, we see that break-even analyses must always be performed taking into account an existing planning system. Under practical aspects, GI/G/1 systems turn out to map complex real situations realistically. From the examples given it can be concluded that one achieves different results compared with using a deterministic model even in the case of a simple, random effects approach. In particular, it is shown that stochastic modelling in general is helpful in avoiding incorrect decisions.

  11. Bayesian Decision Theory Guiding Educational Decision-Making: Theories, Models and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yilin

    2016-01-01

    Given the importance of education and the growing public demand for improving education quality under tight budget constraints, there has been an emerging movement to call for research-informed decisions in educational resource allocation. Despite the abundance of rigorous studies on the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of educational…

  12. A multi-phase algorithm for a joint lot-sizing and pricing problem with stochastic demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jenny Li, Hongyan; Thorstenson, Anders

    2014-01-01

    item over a finite multi-period planning horizon. Thece-dependent demands. The stochastic demand is captured by the scenario analysis approach, and this leads to a multiple-stage stochastic programming problem. Given the complexity of the stochastic programming problem, it is hard to determine optimal...... prices and lot sizes simultaneously. Therefore, we decompose the joint lot-sizing and pricing problem with stochastic demands and capacity constraints into a multi-phase decision process. In each phase, we solve the associated sub-problem to optimality. The decomposed decision process corresponds...... that the multi-phase heuristic algorithm solves the example problems effectively....

  13. Medium- and long-term electric power demand forecasting based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zhanmeng; Li, Xiyuan; Li, Xizhong; Hu, Qinghe; Zhang, Haiyang; Cui, Pengjie

    2017-08-01

    Based on the smart city, this paper proposed a new electric power demand forecasting model, which integrates external data such as meteorological information, geographic information, population information, enterprise information and economic information into the big database, and uses an improved algorithm to analyse the electric power demand and provide decision support for decision makers. The data mining technology is used to synthesize kinds of information, and the information of electric power customers is analysed optimally. The scientific forecasting is made based on the trend of electricity demand, and a smart city in north-eastern China is taken as a sample.

  14. Modeling the high-latitude ground response to the excitation of the ionospheric MHD modes by atmospheric electric discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorov, E.; Mazur, N.; Pilipenko, V.; Baddeley, L.

    2016-11-01

    The ionospheric Alfvén resonator (IAR) and fast magnetosonic (FMS) waveguide, which can trap the electromagnetic wave energy in the range from fractions of Hz to several Hz, are characteristic features of the upper ionosphere. Their role in the electromagnetic impulsive coupling between atmospheric discharge processes and the ionosphere can be elucidated with a proper model. The presented model is based on numerical solution of coupled wave equations for electromagnetic modes in the ionosphere and atmosphere in a realistic ionosphere modeled with the use of IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) vertical profiles. The geomagnetic field is supposed to be nearly vertical, so the model can be formally applied to high latitudes, though the main features of ground ULF structure will be qualitatively similar at middle latitudes as well. The modeling shows that during the lightning discharge a coupled wave system comprising IAR and MHD waveguide is excited. Using the model, the spatial structure, frequency spectra, and polarization parameters have been calculated at various distances from a vertical dipole. In the lightning proximity (about several hundred kilometer) only the lowest IAR harmonics are revealed in the radial magnetic component spectra. At distances >800 km the multiband spectral structure is formed predominantly by harmonics of FMS waveguide modes. The model predictions do not contradict the results of search coil magnetometer observations on Svalbard; however, the model validation demands more dedicated experimental studies.

  15. Remote Sensing of Open Water in Northern High Latitudes for use in Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podest, E.; McDonald, K. C.; Kimball, J.; Maumenee, N.; Bohn, T.; Lettenmaier, D.; Bowling, L.

    2007-12-01

    In the northern high latitudes open water bodies are common landscape features, having a large influence on hydrologic processes as well as surface-atmosphere carbon exchange and associated impacts on global climate. It is therefore of great importance to assess their spatial extent and temporal character in order to improve hydrologic and ecosystem process modeling. Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an effective tool for this purpose since it is particularly sensitive to surface water and it can monitor large inaccessible areas on a temporal basis regardless of atmospheric conditions or solar illumination. We employ multi-temporal L-band SAR data from the Japanese Earth Remote Sensing Satellite (JERS-1) and ALOS PALSAR to map open water bodies across Alaska and Eurasia. A supervised decision tree-based classification approach was used to generate open water maps. For Alaska, we assembled regional-scale monthly JERS-1 SAR mosaics from data acquired during 1998. Digital elevation model (DEM) terrain and slope information were also employed in the decision tree classifier. These supplementary data aided significantly in improving classification performance in topographically complex regions where radar shadowing was prevalent. For study regions in Eurasia, PALSAR data was used in conjunction with JERS-1 imagery to map spatial patterns and seasonal variability in open water characteristics over selected study basins. These results were examined in relation to regional topographic and land cover characteristics. Classification results were also evaluated relative to other open water and land cover classification maps derived from Landsat, AVHRR, MODIS and SRTM. This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; at the University of Montana; at the University of Washington; and at Purdue University under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  16. Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achim Koberstein

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a multi-stage stochastic programming model that integrates financial hedging decisions into the planning of strategic production networks under uncertain exchange rates and product demands. This model considers the expenses of production plants and the revenues of markets in different currency areas. Financial portfolio planning decisions for two types of financial instruments, forward contracts and options, are represented explicitly by multi-period decision variables and a multi-stage scenario tree. Using an illustrative example, we analyze the impact of exchange-rate and demand volatility, the level of investment expenses and interest rate spreads on capacity location and dimensioning decisions. In particular, we show that, in the illustrative example, the exchange-rate uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated by financial hedging in the presence of demand uncertainty. In this situation, we find that the integrated model can result in better strategic planning decisions for a risk-averse decision maker compared to traditional modeling approaches.

  17. EDITORIAL: Photonic materials on demand Photonic materials on demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheludev, Nikolay; Padilla, Willie J.; Brener, Igal

    2012-11-01

    As David Payne famously said, 'we never have a photonic material that we want...'. This has changed with the proliferation of nanotechnology. Metamaterials—artificial media structured on a sub-wavelength scale—offer a radical paradigm for the engineering of optical properties. Some remarkable advances have been possible with metamaterials. These include, for instance, negative-index media that refract light in the opposite direction from that of conventional materials, chiral materials that rotate the polarization state of light hundreds of thousands of times more strongly than natural optical crystals, and structured thin films with remarkably strong dispersion that can slow light in much the same way as resonant atomic systems with electromagnetically induced transparency. The research agenda is now shifting towards achieving tunable and switchable functionalities with metamaterials [1] where the goal is, paraphrasing Dave Payne, 'to have on demand the photonic material that we want'. The papers in this Journal of Optics special issue explore and review the different approaches to both switching and tuning of metamaterial properties through exploiting effects such as phase conjugation, intense photo-excitation and photoconductivity, the use of electro-optical effects in conductive oxides, the exploitation global quantum coherency and resonantly coupled classical resonator and quantum structures, hybridization with gain media and the manipulation with shapes and constitution of the complex metamolecules and metamaterial reliefs by design, or using MEMS actuation. References [1] Zheludev N I and Kivshar Y 2012 From metamaterials to metadevices Nature Mater.11 917

  18. The Supply-Demand Analysis and Mechanism Innovation of Chinese Rural Public Goods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public goods is characterized by non-excludability,non-competitiveness and indispensability of other general public goods.The supply situation of Chinese government to rural public goods is analyzed,as well as the demand situation of rural public goods,which includes farmers’ demand on training,the assistance demand of rural weak groups,farmers’ demand on comfortable living conditions and farmers’ demand on "soft" public goods.The paths for innovating the supply mechanism of rural public goods are put forward,which cover perfecting the decision mechanism of public goods supply;scientifically distributing the supply responsibility of rural public goods;facilitating the reform of each supporting equipment and exploring the multiple capital collecting channels of rural public goods.

  19. Analysis on the Demand of Spatial Arrangement Decision Supporting System for Medical Facilities in Chaoyang District of Beijing%北京朝阳区卫生设施空间布局决策支持系统需求分析研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐向东; 胡红濮; 陈荃; 翟冰菲

    2013-01-01

    This paper analysed and evaluated the present situation of medical facility in Beijing Chaoyang district, and raised the exsisting problems including unbalanced configuration,resource scarcity and so on.And then we assessed the health informatization construction in Chaoyang district and studied the medical facilitiy allocation standards as well as the theory of Decision Support System function classification.According to the above we analyzed the needs and application of the Spatial Decision Support System of health facilities' spatial arrangement.%  在对北京市朝阳区医疗卫生设施布局现状、存在有关问题以及已有卫生信息化基础进行系统分析的基础上,结合卫生设施相关配置标准及区域卫生资源规划设计的有关理论,提出了一套切实可行的基于GIS的朝阳区卫生设施空间布局决策支持系统功能需求分析,为北京朝阳区建设卫生设施空间布局决策支持系统提供科学依据与参考。

  20. Altitude and latitude dependence of the equatorial electrojet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Cole, K. D.

    1988-07-01

    A self-consistent and high-resolution dynamo model is used to investigate the effects of day-to-day or seasonal variation of altitude and latitude profiles of the E-plasma density in the equatorial ionosphere on equatorial electrojet (EEJ) structure. Variations in the E-layer peak altitude and amplitude are shown to significantly affect EEJ structure. The results indicate that, for any shape, the EEJ peak appears at or below the E-layer peak altitude. Distinct double peaks occur in the EEJ structure if the E-layer peak is above 105 km or if the gradient is large. The effect of the latitudinal variation of the integrated conductivities of ionospheric field lines upon the amplitude and altitude of the EEJ peak is discussed.

  1. High-latitude geomagnetic studies (22-23 millihertz)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, A. (AT T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, NJ (USA) City Univ. of New York, Brooklyn (USA)); Lanzerotti, L.J.; Maclennan, C.C.; Medford, L.V. (AT T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, NJ (USA))

    1988-01-01

    Geomagnetic field measurements were initiated at Iqaluit (formerly Frobisher Bay) in the Northwest Territories of Canada during July 1985 (Wolfe et al. 1986). This site was selected because it was calculated to be in the conjugate area to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station where extensive geomagnetic research has been conducted. The principal scientific objectives are to study the conjugacy of high-latitude magnetic fluctuations observed at Iqaluit and South Pole (L{approximately}13). In this report, the authors extend the previous report of Wolfe et al. (1987) and comment upon the conjugacy of the stations for magnetic field fluctuations in the Pc3 (22-33 millihertz) hydromagnetic regime and upon the penetration of hydromagnetic energy deeper into the magnetosphere on the local dayside.

  2. DHIGLS: DRAO H I Intermediate Galactic Latitude Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Blagrave, K; Joncas, G; Kothes, R; Stil, J; Miville-Deschenes, M -A; Lockman, Felix J; Taylor, A R

    2016-01-01

    Observations of Galactic H I gas for seven intermediate Galactic latitude fields are presented at 1' angular resolution using data from the DRAO Synthesis Telescope (ST) and the Green Bank Telescope (GBT). The DHIGLS data are the most extensive arcminute resolution measurements of the diffuse atomic interstellar medium beyond those in the Galactic plane. The acquisition, reduction, calibration, and mosaicking of the DRAO ST data and the cross calibration and incorporation of the short-spacing information from the GBT are described. The high quality of the DHIGLS data enables a variety of new studies in directions of low Galactic column density. We find evidence for dramatic changes in the structures in channel maps over even small changes in velocity. This narrow line emission has counterparts in absorption spectra against bright background radio sources, quantifying that the gas is cold and dense and can be identified as the cold neutral medium phase. We analyze the angular power spectra of maps of the integ...

  3. The CH fraction of Carbon stars at high Galactic latitudes

    CERN Document Server

    Goswami, Aruna; Shantikumar, N S

    2009-01-01

    CH stars form a distinct class of objects with characteristic properties like iron deficiency, enrichment of carbon and overabundance in heavy elements. These properties can provide strong observational constraints for theoretical computation of nucleosynthesis at low-metallicity. An important question is the relative surface density of CH stars which can provide valuable inputs to our understanding on the role of low to intermediate-mass stars in the early Galactic chemical evolution. Spectroscopic characterization provides an effective way of identifying CH stars. The present analysis is aimed at a quantitative assessment of the fraction of CH stars in a sample of stars using a set of spectral classification criteria. The sample consists of 92 objects selected from a collection of candidate Faint High Latitude Carbon stars from the Hamburg/ESO survey. Medium resolution (R ~ 1300) spectra for these objects were obtained using OMR at VBO, Kavalur and HFOSC at HCT, IAO, Hanle, during 2007 - 2009 spanning a wav...

  4. Computing rare transitions between zonal mid-latitude jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonnet, Eric; Bouchet, Freddy

    2016-04-01

    Zonal jets are known to naturally emerge from beta-plane turbulence due to the arrest of inverse energy cascade by Rossby waves.Transitions between jets of different wavenumber are indeed observed in particular regimes showing a striking example of bimodality in the context of 2-D turbulence. As the Rayleigh dissipation and stochastic forcing are decreased these transitions become more and more rare. The aim of this talk is to show that it is possible to compute large ensembles of reactive trajectories connecting the different metastable states even at very low probability regimes when direct numerical simulations are not possible. We use an adaptive version of multilevel splitting algorithms on a barotropic quasi geostrophic model of mid-latitude atmosphere. We are able to obtain a detailed statistical description of the high-dimensional phase space as well as the typical transitions. A large-deviation result is also obtained.

  5. The structure of convective rain cells at mid-latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Rebora

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Rain cells are structures which represent an important component of convective precipitation and a study of their properties represents a necessary step both towards improved stochastic models of small-scale precipitation and for the verification of deterministic high resolution local-area models. The case of intense convective precipitation in the tropics has been analysed in a recent study (von Hardenberg et al., 2003. Here we extend the analysis to mid-latitudes and we present results on the structure of convective rain cells observed by radar measurements in Italy. In particular we consider the average shape of precipitation cells and its dependence on radar resolution and the distributions of ellipticities.

  6. Informatics Perspectives on Decision Taking

    CERN Document Server

    Bergstra, J A

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for instance: plan, command, assertion, or boolean reply to a question. A decision effect is any consequence of putting a decision outcome into effect. Decision outcomes must be expected by the decider to lead to certain decision effects, by way of their being put into effect. The availability of a model or of a theory of the causal chain leading from a decision outcome to one or more decision effects is assumed for the decision taker, otherwise the decision outcome is merely an utterance. Decision effectiveness measures the decision effects against objectives meant to be served with the decision. Decision taking is positioned amidst many similar notions including: decision making, decision process, decision making proce...

  7. Speciation, Ecological Opportunity, and Latitude (American Society of Naturalists Address).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schluter, Dolph

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary hypotheses to explain the greater numbers of species in the tropics than the temperate zone include greater age and area, higher temperature and metabolic rates, and greater ecological opportunity. These ideas make contrasting predictions about the relationship between speciation processes and latitude, which I elaborate and evaluate. Available data suggest that per capita speciation rates are currently highest in the temperate zone and that diversification rates (speciation minus extinction) are similar between latitudes. In contrast, clades whose oldest analyzed dates precede the Eocene thermal maximum, when the extent of the tropics was much greater than today, tend to show highest speciation and diversification rates in the tropics. These findings are consistent with age and area, which is alone among hypotheses in predicting a time trend. Higher recent speciation rates in the temperate zone than the tropics suggest an additional response to high ecological opportunity associated with low species diversity. These broad patterns are compelling but provide limited insights into underlying mechanisms, arguing that studies of speciation processes along the latitudinal gradient will be vital. Using threespine stickleback in depauperate northern lakes as an example, I show how high ecological opportunity can lead to rapid speciation. The results support a role for ecological opportunity in speciation, but its importance in the evolution of the latitudinal gradient remains uncertain. I conclude that per capita evolutionary rates are no longer higher in the tropics than the temperate zone. Nevertheless, the vast numbers of species that have already accumulated in the tropics ensure that total rate of species production remains highest there. Thus, tropical evolutionary momentum helps to perpetuate the steep latitudinal biodiversity gradient.

  8. Turbulent oceanic western-boundary layers at low latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quam Cyrille Akuetevi, Cataria; Wirth, Achim

    2013-04-01

    Low latitude oceanic western-boundary layers range within the most turbulent regions in the worlds ocean. The Somali current system with the Great Whirl and the Brazilian current system with its eddy shedding are the most prominent examples. Results from analytical calculations and integration of a one layer reduced-gravity fine resolution shallow water model is used to entangle this turbulent dynamics. Two types of wind-forcing are applied: a remote Trade wind forcing with maximum shear along the equator and a local Monsoon wind forcing with maximum shear in the vicinity of the boundary. For high values of the viscosity (> 1000m2s-1) the stationary solutions compare well to analytical predictions using Munk and inertial layer theory. When lowering the friction parameter time dependence results. The onset of instability is strongly influenced by inertial effects. The unstable boundary current proceeds as a succession of anti-cyclonic coherent eddies performing a chaotic dynamics in a turbulent flow. The dynamics is governed by the turbulent fluxes of mass and momentum. We determine these fluxes by analyzing the (potential) vorticity dynamics. We demonstrate that the boundary-layer can be separated in four sub-layers, which are (starting from the boundary): (1) the viscous sub-layer (2) the turbulent buffer-layer (3) the layer containing the coherent structures and (4) the extended boundary layer. The characteristics of each sub-layer and the corresponding turbulent fluxes are determined, as are the dependence on latitude and the type of forcing. A new pragmatic method of determining the eddy viscosity, based on Munk-layer theory, is proposed. Results are compared to observations and solutions of the multi-level primitive equation model (DRAKKAR).

  9. Comparing High-latitude Ionospheric and Thermospheric Lagrangian Coherent Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, N.; Ramirez, U.; Flores, F.; Okic, D.; Datta-Barua, S.

    2015-12-01

    Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) are invisible boundaries in time varying flow fields that may be subject to mixing and turbulence. The LCS is defined by the local maxima of the finite time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE), a scalar field quantifying the degree of stretching of fluid elements over the flow domain. Although the thermosphere is dominated by neutral wind processes and the ionosphere is governed by plasma electrodynamics, we can compare the LCS in the two modeled flow fields to yield insight into transport and interaction processes in the high-latitude IT system. For obtaining thermospheric LCS, we use the Horizontal Wind Model 2014 (HWM14) [1] at a single altitude to generate the two-dimensional velocity field. The FTLE computation is applied to study the flow field of the neutral wind, and to visualize the forward-time Lagrangian Coherent Structures in the flow domain. The time-varying structures indicate a possible thermospheric LCS ridge in the auroral oval area. The results of a two-day run during a geomagnetically quiet period show that the structures are diurnally quasi-periodic, thus that solar radiation influences the neutral wind flow field. To find the LCS in the high-latitude ionospheric drifts, the Weimer 2001 [2] polar electric potential model and the International Geomagnetic Reference Field 11 [3] are used to compute the ExB drift flow field in ionosphere. As with the neutral winds, the Lagrangian Coherent Structures are obtained by applying the FTLE computation. The relationship between the thermospheric and ionospheric LCS is analyzed by comparing overlapping FTLE maps. Both a publicly available FTLE solver [4] and a custom-built FTLE computation are used and compared for validation [5]. Comparing the modeled IT LCSs on a quiet day with the modeled IT LCSs on a storm day indicates important factors on the structure and time evolution of the LCS.

  10. Daylighting in linear atrium buildings at high latitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matusiak, Barbara

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes new criteria for visual comfort based on knowledge of visual perception and a method for estimating the modelling ability of light by using inter-reflection calculations. Simplified calculations are presented for the daylight factor in linear building structures, using the projected solid angle principle, for uniform sky and for CIE overcast sky conditions. The calculations are compared with experimental results. Simple diagrams are created based on calculations of the mean daylight factor in rooms adjacent to a narrow street. These diagrams and presented formulas and tables can be used as a simple design tool. Daylighting strategies for linear atrium buildings at high latitudes are developed and examined. These strategies are divided into three groups: (1) the atrium space and facades as light conductor/reflector, (2) the glass roof as a light conductor, and (3) light reflectors on the neighbouring roof. The atrium space and facade strategies are subdivided into passive and active. The strategies connected to the glazed roof includes different configurations of glazing: horizontal, single pitched, double pitched, and the use of laser cut panels and prismatic panels in the glazed roof. The shapes of reflectors on the neighbouring roof are a flat reflector, a parabolic reflector and a parabolic concentrator. Strategies from all three groups are examined on a physical model of scale 1:20 in the artificial sky of mirror box type. Simulations with artificial sun have also been done. The results from model studies are compared with computer simulations. All the active daylighting systems designed for use in the atrium space or on the atrium facades have a huge potential for use in atrium buildings. From the strategies connected with the glazed roof the negatively sloped glass is found to be the best alternative for glazed roofs at high latitudes. Among the roof reflectors, the flat one performs best. 82 refs., 122 figs., 27 tabs.

  11. Exploring Demand Charge Savings from Commercial Solar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darghouth, Naim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Gagnon, Pieter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-07-31

    Commercial retail electricity rates commonly include a demand charge component, based on some measure of the customer’s peak demand. Customer-sited solar PV can potentially reduce demand charges, but the magnitude of these savings can be difficult to predict, given variations in demand charge designs, customer loads, and PV generation profiles. Moreover, depending on the circumstances, demand charges from solar may or may not align well with associated utility cost savings. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are collaborating in a series of studies to understand how solar PV can reduce demand charge levels for a variety of customer types and demand charges designs. Previous work focused on residential customs with solar. This study, instead, focuses on commercial customers and seeks to understand the extent and conditions under which rooftop can solar reduce commercial demand charges. To answer these questions, we simulate demand charge savings for a broad range of commercial customer types, demand charge designs, locations, and PV system characteristics. This particular analysis does not include storage, but a subsequent analysis in this series will evaluate demand charge savings for commercial customers with solar and storage.

  12. Stability of Money Demand Function in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haroon Sarwar

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The role, which money demand function plays in monetary policy formulation has attracted a lot of research studies to analyze this macroeconomic phenomenon. In the wake of current global and local economic and political upheavals, it is imperative to revisit the stability of money demand function. The study used the time series data and applied latest econometric techniques to find out the long run and short run money demand relationship. Moreover, all the three official monetary aggregates were used for finding out the most stable monetary demand relationship, which could provide correct signals for monetary policy formulation. The study found that broader monetary aggregate (M2 was the proper aggregate, which provided stable money demand function for Pakistan. The real GDP was positively related to the demand for real balances, while opportunity cost of money was negatively related. The study found that the role of financial innovation, in explaining the demand for money warrants attention in formulating monetary policy.

  13. Demands of immigration among Chinese immigrant nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Amy X; Griffin, Mary T Quinn; Capitulo, Katie L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify the demands of immigration among Chinese nurses that have immigrated to the USA. The relationship between the demands of immigration and length of stay in the USA was investigated also. A descriptive correlational study design was used. A convenience sample of 128 nurses was recruited. A self-administered survey was conducted using the demands of immigration scale developed by Aroian, along with a demographic questionnaire. The results showed Chinese immigrant nurses have high demands of immigration. There were significant negative relationships between the demands of immigration and length of stay in the USA. Immigration demands decreased as length of stay increased but remained high even for those who had been in the USA for > 5 years. This information is vital to health-care agencies designing and implementing adaptation programmes targeting these demands to facilitate Chinese nurses' adaptation process.

  14. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level, par

  15. Derived operating rules for a reservoir operation system: Comparison of decision trees, neural decision trees and fuzzy decision trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Chih-Chiang; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

    2008-02-01

    This article compares the decision-tree algorithm (C5.0), neural decision-tree algorithm (NDT) and fuzzy decision-tree algorithm (FIDs) for addressing reservoir operations regarding water supply during normal periods. The conventional decision-tree algorithm, such as ID3 and C5.0, executes rapidly and can easily be translated into if-then-else rules. However, the C5.0 algorithm cannot discover dependencies among attributes and cannot treat the non-axis-parallel class boundaries of data. The basic concepts of the two algorithms presented are: (1) NDT algorithm combines the neural network technologies and conventional decision-tree algorithm capabilities, and (2) FIDs algorithm extends to apply fuzzy sets for all attributes with membership function grades and generates a fuzzy decision tree. In order to obtain higher classification rates in FIDs, the flexible trapezoid fuzzy sets are employed to define membership functions. Furthermore, an intelligent genetic algorithm is utilized to optimize the large number of variables in fuzzy decision-tree design. The applicability of the presented algorithms is demonstrated through a case study of the Shihmen Reservoir system. A network flow optimization model for analyzing long-term supply demand is employed to generate the input-output patterns. Findings show superior performance of the FIDs model in contrast with C5.0, NDT and current reservoir operating rules.

  16. Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashkan Hafezalkotob

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set of risk-averse retailers. The strategic decisions are frequently taking precedence over tactical ones. Therefore, we first find equilibrium of tactical decisions for each possible scenario of supply chain network. Afterwards, we find optimal distribution network of the new supply chain by the scenario evaluation method. Numerical example, including sensitivity analysis will illustrate how the conservative behaviors of chains' members affect expected demand, profit, and utility of each distribution scenario.

  17. BATMAN: MOS Spectroscopy on Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, E.; Zamkotsian, F.; Moschetti, M.; Spano, P.; Boschin, W.; Cosentino, R.; Ghedina, A.; González, M.; Pérez, H.; Lanzoni, P.; Ramarijaona, H.; Riva, M.; Zerbi, F.; Nicastro, L.; Valenziano, L.; Di Marcantonio, P.; Coretti, I.; Cirami, R.

    2016-10-01

    Multi-Object Spectrographs (MOS) are the major instruments for studying primary galaxies and remote and faint objects. Current object selection systems are limited and/or difficult to implement in next generation MOS for space and ground-based telescopes. A promising solution is the use of MOEMS devices such as micromirror arrays, which allow the remote control of the multi-slit configuration in real time. TNG is hosting a novelty project for real-time, on-demand MOS masks based on MOEMS programmable slits. We are developing a 2048×1080 Digital-Micromirror-Device-based (DMD) MOS instrument to be mounted on the Galileo telescope, called BATMAN. It is a two-arm instrument designed for providing in parallel imaging and spectroscopic capabilities. With a field of view of 6.8×3.6 arcmin and a plate scale of 0.2 arcsec per micromirror, this astronomical setup can be used to investigate the formation and evolution of galaxies. The wavelength range is in the visible and the spectral resolution is R=560 for a 1 arcsec object, and the two arms will have 2k × 4k CCD detectors. ROBIN, a BATMAN demonstrator, has been designed, realized and integrated. We plan to have BATMAN first light by mid-2016.

  18. Physiological demands of competitive basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narazaki, K; Berg, K; Stergiou, N; Chen, B

    2009-06-01

    The aim of this study was to assess physiological demands of competitive basketball by measuring oxygen consumption (VO2) and other variables during practice games. Each of 12 players (20.4 +/- 1.1 years) was monitored in a 20-min practice game, which was conducted in the same way as actual games with the presence of referees and coaches. VO2 was measured by a portable system during the game and blood lactate concentration (LA) was measured in brief breaks. Subjects were also videotaped for time-motion analysis. Female and male players demonstrated respective VO2 of 33.4 +/- 4.0 and 36.9 +/- 2.6 mL/kg/min and LA of 3.2 +/- 0.9 and 4.2 +/- 1.3 mmol/L in the practice games (P>0.05). They spent 34.1% of play time running and jumping, 56.8% walking, and 9.0% standing. Pre-obtained VO(2max) was correlated to VO(2) during play (r=0.673) and to percent of duration for running and jumping (r=0.935 and 0.962 for females and males, respectively). This study demonstrated a greater oxygen uptake for competitive basketball than that estimated based on a previous compendium. The correlation between aerobic capacity and activity level suggests the potential benefit of aerobic conditioning in basketball.

  19. Soft Computing Based Procurement Planning of Time-variable Demand in Manufacturing Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kai Leung Yung; Wai Hung Ip; Ding-Wei Wang

    2007-01-01

    Procurement planning with discrete time varying demand is an important problem in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). It can be described using the non-analytic mathematical programming model proposed in this paper. To solve the model we propose to use a fuzzy decision embedded genetic algorithm. The algorithm adopts an order strategy selection to simplify the original real optimization problem into binary ones. Then, a fuzzy decision quantification method is used to quantify experience from planning experts. Thus, decision rules can easily be embedded in the computation of genetic operations. This approach is applied to purchase planning problem in a practical machine tool works, where satisfactory results have been achieved.

  20. ROTATION RATE DIFFERENCES OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS BETWEEN ±60° LATITUDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, X. J.; Xie, J. L., E-mail: shixiangjun@ynao.ac.cn [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China)

    2015-04-15

    Based on a cross-correlation analysis of the Carrington synoptic maps of solar photospheric magnetic fields from Carrington Rotations Nos. 1625 to 2135 (from 1975 February to 2013 March), the sidereal rotation rates of the positive and negative magnetic fields in the latitude range of ±60° are obtained, and the rotation rate differences between them are investigated. The time–latitude distribution of the rate differences is shown, which looks like a butterfly diagram at the low and middle latitudes. For comparison, the time–latitude distribution of the longitudinally averaged photospheric magnetic fields is shown. We conclude that the magnetic fields having the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere rotate faster than those exhibiting the opposite polarity at low and middle latitudes. However, at higher latitudes, the magnetic fields having the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere do not always rotate faster than those with the opposite polarity. Furthermore, the relationship between the rotation rate differences and solar magnetic fields is studied through a correlation analysis. Our result shows that the correlation coefficients between them reach maximum values at 13° (14°) latitude in the northern (southern) hemisphere, and change sign at 28° latitude in both hemispheres, then reach their minimum values at 58° (53°) latitude in the northern (southern) hemisphere.

  1. Playing dice with criminal sentences: the influence of irrelevant anchors on experts' judicial decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englich, Birte; Mussweiler, Thomas; Strack, Fritz

    2006-02-01

    Judicial sentencing decisions should be guided by facts, not by chance. The present research however demonstrates that the sentencing decisions of experienced legal professionals are influenced by irrelevant sentencing demands even if they are blatantly determined at random. Participating legal experts anchored their sentencing decisions on a given sentencing demand and assimilated toward it even if this demand came from an irrelevant source (Study 1), they were informed that this demand was randomly determined (Study 2), or they randomly determined this demand themselves by throwing dice (Study 3). Expertise and experience did not reduce this effect. This sentencing bias appears to be produced by a selective increase in the accessibility of arguments that are consistent with the random sentencing demand: The accessibility of incriminating arguments was higher if participants were confronted with a high rather than a low anchor (Study 4). Practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed.

  2. Determination of Customers' Demand and Expectations in the Auction Sales of Artvin Regional Directorate of Forestry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atakan Öztürk

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, sales of auctions were evaluated according to customers' demand and expectations in Artvin Regional Directorate of Forestry. For this purpose, face-to-face survey was conducted with 50 participating in auction sales. As a result, some of the findings and recommendations were made to increase the effectiveness of marketing activities for decision makers.

  3. Demand-driven land evaluation; with case studies in Santa Catarina-Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.

    2003-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to improve use and usefulness of information for rural land use decisions based on an operational demand-driven approach for land evaluation with case studies in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. To achieve this objective, the following research questions were

  4. Demand-driven land evaluation; with case studies in Santa Catarina-Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.

    2003-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to improve use and usefulness of information for rural land use decisions based on an operational demand-driven approach for land evaluation with case studies in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. To achieve this objective, the following research questions were formul

  5. Demands on Attention and the Role of Response Priming in Visual Discrimination of Feature Conjunctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Lisa R.; Herbert, Rhonda J.; Farris, Carrie

    2004-01-01

    This study examined how response mapping of features within single- and multiple-feature targets affects decision-based processing and attentional capacity demands. Observers judged the presence or absence of 1 or 2 target features within an object either presented alone or with distractors. Judging the presence of 2 features relative to the less…

  6. A simulated annealing methodology to multiproduct capacitated facility location with stochastic demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Jin; Xiang, Hui; Ye, Yong; Ni, Linglin

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic multiproduct capacitated facility location problem involving a single supplier and multiple customers is investigated. Due to the stochastic demands, a reasonable amount of safety stock must be kept in the facilities to achieve suitable service levels, which results in increased inventory cost. Based on the assumption of normal distributed for all the stochastic demands, a nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is proposed, whose objective is to minimize the total cost, including transportation cost, inventory cost, operation cost, and setup cost. A combined simulated annealing (CSA) algorithm is presented to solve the model, in which the outer layer subalgorithm optimizes the facility location decision and the inner layer subalgorithm optimizes the demand allocation based on the determined facility location decision. The results obtained with this approach shown that the CSA is a robust and practical approach for solving a multiple product problem, which generates the suboptimal facility location decision and inventory policies. Meanwhile, we also found that the transportation cost and the demand deviation have the strongest influence on the optimal decision compared to the others.

  7. Visualisation turns down energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Ole Michael [Danish Building and Urban Research, Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2003-07-01

    After many energy saving campaigns, Danish families give the impression that they are conscious of energy consumption. Children have learned to turn off the light and adults to buy low-energy bulbs and household appliances. Questioned about their energy consumption and its fluctuations, the same people nevertheless confess to not really knowing. You pay your energy bill but pay no attention to the current consumption, or its level. Unlike other types of consumption, energy consumption is an almost invisible type of consumption. Nevertheless, as a secondary consumption it is much affected by primary consumption in the form of white goods, appliances, cars, food etc., the main purpose of which usually is visibility. This paper presents the result of an experiment to make the energy consumption visible. Meters in the flats showing actual electricity, heat and water consumption confront tenants with the consequences of their own behaviour. The experiment also investigates different set-ups concerning information and communication about energy consumption. Monthly consumption and levels of consumption compared within the neighbourhood are elements of this information. Also quarterly eco-accounting, with key-figures of consumption and environmental considerations like CO{sub 2} emission, are part of the information set-up. Within the first year of visualisation one case shows a 9% reduction of heat and a 22% reduction of electricity. The other cases seem to follow the same tendency. The philosophy of the experiment is that you must know your position in order to change it. You must know about the level of your own energy consumption in order to turn down energy demand. The visible meters are elements in 'Urban Ecological Renewal of a Housing Block' (Hedebygade Block) in a central district of Copenhagen.

  8. Research on coordination decision model with fuzzy demand and fuzzy lead-time for perishable product supply chain%模糊需求与模糊提前期易逝品供应链渠道协调的数量折扣契约研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阮家港; 扶秀红

    2011-01-01

    Based on credibility theory,we give the expectation formula of LR fuzzy number.Facing to fuzzy market demand and fuzzy lead-time,this paper considers a perishable product two-echelon supply chain system with one distributor and one manufacturer.We present%对LR型模糊变量,基于可信性理论,给出了其期望值计算式。针对模糊市场需求及模糊生产提前期,考虑了由一个制造商和一个分销商组成的易逝品两级供应链系统,分别建立了无数量折扣分散决策与集中决策模型。构建了一类新的数量折扣形式,并研究了其在分散决策下如何制定数量折扣,改善供应链服务水平。

  9. Food safety information and food demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2005-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations....../implications – The study has focused on the demand for raw eggs. Responses to food safety news may differ across foods. Furthermore, the study abstracts from possible cross-effects of safety news concerning other foods. Practical implications – The findings may be utilized for optimization of the timing and targeting...

  10. Electricity Demand and Energy Consumption Management System

    CERN Document Server

    Sarmiento, Juan Ojeda

    2008-01-01

    This project describes the electricity demand and energy consumption management system and its application to the Smelter Plant of Southern Peru. It is composted of an hourly demand-forecasting module and of a simulation component for a plant electrical system. The first module was done using dynamic neural networks, with backpropagation training algorithm; it is used to predict the electric power demanded every hour, with an error percentage below of 1%. This information allows management the peak demand before this happen, distributing the raise of electric load to other hours or improving those equipments that increase the demand. The simulation module is based in advanced estimation techniques, such as: parametric estimation, neural network modeling, statistic regression and previously developed models, which simulates the electric behavior of the smelter plant. These modules allow the proper planning because it allows knowing the behavior of the hourly demand and the consumption patterns of the plant, in...

  11. Food safety information and food demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2005-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations....../implications – The study has focused on the demand for raw eggs. Responses to food safety news may differ across foods. Furthermore, the study abstracts from possible cross-effects of safety news concerning other foods. Practical implications – The findings may be utilized for optimization of the timing and targeting...

  12. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  13. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  14. Simulation for the KlBS Employee Behavior Decision-making in Demand-driven---Based on the Perspective of Risk Appetite%KIBS员工需求驱动下行为决策的模拟--基于风险偏好视角

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜凤珍; 胡斌

    2015-01-01

    With the development of economic globalization , more and more academics are focused on knowledge-intensive service ( KIBS) .In order to provide support management decisions for the KIBS ,this paper studies the evolutionary law of KIBS employees ’ cooperation and conflict behavior when effected by the risk preference .We develop a behavior decision model of KIBS employees ’ cooperation and conflict and employee incentive model , design utility function considering the risk neutral and risk aversion of employee .Organization should give differ-ent appropriate incentives for different risk preference employees , which can improve the staff ’ s cooperation . Then MATLAB2010 and EXCEL are used to implement this simulation analysis .The simulation results show that:1)Different degrees of risk preference have different impacts on the decision-making behavior of employees;2)In order to improve the staff’s cooperation, organization should give appropriate incentives for employees;3)When the task of the work load reaches a certain degree , organization should increase the staff ’ s fixed income rather than the degree of motivation .%随着经济全球化的发展,知识密集型服务业( KIBS)越来越受到学术界的关注。本文研究员工的风险偏好对KIBS员工合作与冲突行为的影响演化规律,目的在于为KIBS的管理决策提供支持。为了发现风险偏好对员工合作与冲突行为的影响,设计效用函数,并建立了风险规避和风险中性下KIBS员工合作与冲突行为决策模型,给出了KIBS员工在不同风险假定下的最优行为决策,对风险规避员工组织应当给予适度的激励,这样能够提高员工的合作程度。之后使用MATLAB2010进行模拟,并使用EXCEL对数据进行分析,发现:(1)风险偏好程度不同对员工的决策行为的影响程度不同;(2)对于员工应该给予适当的激励措施,以便提高员工的合作程度;(3)

  15. Exploring the oxygen supply and demand framework as a learning tool in undergraduate nursing education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Mary; Shackell, Eileen

    2017-09-06

    In nursing education, physiological concepts are typically presented within a body 'systems' framework yet learners are often challenged to apply this knowledge in the holistic and functional manner needed for effective clinical decision-making and safe patient care. A nursing faculty addressed this learning challenge by developing an advanced organizer as a conceptual and integrative learning tool to support learners in diverse learning environments and practice settings. A mixed methods research study was conducted that explored the effectiveness of the Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework as a learning tool in undergraduate nursing education. A pretest/post-test assessment and reflective journal were used to gather data. Findings indicated the Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework guided the development of pattern recognition and thinking processes and supported knowledge development, knowledge application and clinical decision-making. The Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework supports undergraduate students learning to provide safe and effective nursing care. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Autonomous, continuously recording broadband seismic stations at high-latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, B.; Parker, T.; Bonnett, B.; Tytgat, G.; Anderson, K.; Fowler, J.

    2009-04-01

    IRIS PASSCAL is in the third year of an NSF funded development and acquisition effort to establish a pool of cold-hardened seismic stations specifically for high-latitude broadband deployments. We have two complete years of field trials and have successfully recorded continuous seismic data during both years with data recovery rates of ~90%. Our design is premised on a 2W autonomous system recording to local media, capable of lasting two years without service. The system is composed of four new design elements: a heavily insulated station enclosure; a state-of-health (SOH) Iridium modem; a light weight, easily deployed solar panel mount; and a power system that includes power switching between primary (Lithium Thionyl Chloride) and secondary batteries. The station enclosures have proved most critical in keeping our data acquisition systems operating within manufacturer specifications and primary batteries within a 50-70% efficiency range. Enclosures with 2.5cm-thick vacuum panels and 5cm of foam insulation have kept interior enclosure temperatures 25-30°C above background (typically below -50°C). This austral summer we are deploying version three of our enclosures. Significant changes in the design include thicker vacuum panels (5cm), more robust construction, and simplified cable routing. An important aspect of our station design is easy installation and minimal weight. To simplify installation our station enclosures are packed with datalogger, SOH communications and batteries in the lab or base camp, so that access to the internal components is not necessary at the remote site. Bulkhead connectors allow a user to fully interact with the system without ever having to open the enclosure. Solar panel mounts are also fully constructed prior to deployment. Once on site, digging two large holes (one for the enclosure and one for the broadband seismometer) and constructing the site takes roughly 2 hours. A station designed to record continuously for 12-14 months is

  17. The spectral nature of Titan's mid-latitude region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomonidou, Anezina; Coustenis, Athena; Lopes, Rosaly; Malaska, Michael; Rodriguez, Sebastien; Drossart, Pierre; Schmitt, Bernard; Philippe, Sylvain; Janssen, Michael; Le Gall, Alice; Lawrence, Kenneth; Hirtzig, Mathieu; Sohl, Frank; Stephan, Katrin; Jaumann, Ralf; Brown, Robert; Villanueva, Edward; Bratsolis, Emmanuel; Matsoukas, Christos; Schoenfeld, Ashley

    2017-04-01

    We infer surface properties, such as surface albedo and atmospheric contributions in the form of haze content, of the mid-latitude region of Titan. In previous studies [1;2] we reported results on two areas presenting indications for possible changes in surface albedo with time [2]. We also investigate the endogenic or exogenic processes linked to the formation of the various mid-latitude geomorphological units. These could be aeolian, fluvial, sedimentary, cryovolcanic, lacustrine, and more. Furthermore, deposition of organics through the atmosphere seems to be predominantly present [1]. We now focus on constraining the chemical composition of the various geomorphological units [5;6] by investigating the lower atmosphere of Titan from Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) spectro-imaging data by use of a recently updated radiative transfer code in the near-IR range. For the distinction of geomorphological units we use RADAR/SAR data [4]. We study the units of interest identified in [1;3] and [4]: mountains, plains, labyrinths, dune fields, and possible cryovolcanic and/or evaporitic features (the latter two are albedo features, [4;5]). Our findings indicate that many of the regions from the same geomorphological unit show compositional variations depending on location, while units of significant geomorphological differences seem to consist of very similar material mixtures. Preliminary results on the chemical composition of the regions that have shown temporal changes (i.e. Tui Regio and Sotra Patera; [6]) are also presented. The albedo differences and similarities among the various geomorphological terrains set constraints on the possible geological processes that govern Titan's surface. References: [1] Lopes, R.M.C., et al.: Icarus, 270, 162-182, 2016; [2] Solomonidou, A., et al.: Icarus, 270, 85-99, 2016; [3] Lopes, R.M.C., et al.: Icarus, 205, 540-558, 2010; [4] Malaska, M., et al.: Icarus, 270, 130-161, 2016; [4] Barnes, J., et al.: Pl. Scie., 2

  18. Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O Broin, Eoin

    2012-11-01

    fuel mixes are applied in three scenarios. The rates for expansion of floor area and increases in living standards are the same for all the scenarios. The model outputs predict that if energy efficiency remains at the current level, then expansion of the building floor area and other increases in living standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70 % by 2050. The other two scenarios reveal the levels of improvements in efficiency that are needed to maintain energy demand at current rates or reduce it by 20 %. The results of the modelling provide a conceptual framework for the development of fiscal and regulatory policy decisions in relation to energy prices and various categories of energy efficiency measures, with the overall objective of meeting future demand for energy services of the building sector within the EU in a sustainable manner.

  19. Chloramine demand estimation using surrogate chemical and microbiological parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Sina; Liu, Sanly; Chow, Christopher W K; van Leeuwen, John; Cook, David; Drikas, Mary; Amal, Rose

    2017-07-01

    A model is developed to enable estimation of chloramine demand in full scale drinking water supplies based on chemical and microbiological factors that affect chloramine decay rate via nonlinear regression analysis method. The model is based on organic character (specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA)) of the water samples and a laboratory measure of the microbiological (Fm) decay of chloramine. The applicability of the model for estimation of chloramine residual (and hence chloramine demand) was tested on several waters from different water treatment plants in Australia through statistical test analysis between the experimental and predicted data. Results showed that the model was able to simulate and estimate chloramine demand at various times in real drinking water systems. To elucidate the loss of chloramine over the wide variation of water quality used in this study, the model incorporates both the fast and slow chloramine decay pathways. The significance of estimated fast and slow decay rate constants as the kinetic parameters of the model for three water sources in Australia was discussed. It was found that with the same water source, the kinetic parameters remain the same. This modelling approach has the potential to be used by water treatment operators as a decision support tool in order to manage chloramine disinfection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

    2017-01-01

    Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

  1. Governing Competing Demands for Forest Resources in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Sandström

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Changing and competing land use, where we make use of a growing share of resources, potentially undermines the capacity of forests to provide multiple functions such as timber, biodiversity, recreation and pasture lands. The governance challenge is thus to manage trade-offs between human needs and, at the same time, maintain the capacities of forests to provide us with these needs. Sweden provides a clear example of this kind of challenge. Traditionally, timber has been the most apparent contribution of the forest to Swedish national interests. However, due to competing land use, the identification of the wider role of forests in terms of multifunctionality has been recognized. Today, a number of functions, such as water quality and biodiversity together with cultural and social activities related to forests, are increasingly included as potential demands on forests in competition with traditional functions such as timber production. The challenge is thus related to trade-offs between different functions. How to balance the relationship and guide trade-offs between different functions of forests is, to a large extent, a matter of policy choice and the design of appropriate governance institutions and pro-active management activities. Based on perceptions among stakeholders on future competing demands and a literature review, the paper explore the multifunctionality of the Swedish forests and how it is affected by competing demands for land use; how multifunctionality is currently governed; and concludes by suggesting promising decision support methods to manage trade-offs between different functions.

  2. Knowledge acquisition and interface design for learning on demand systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Wayne A.

    1993-01-01

    The rapid changes in our world precipitated by technology have created new problems and new challenges for education and training. A knowledge 'explosion' is occurring as our society moves toward a service oriented economy that relies on information as the major resource. Complex computer systems are beginning to dominate the workplace, causing alarming growth and change in many fields. The rapidly changing nature of the workplace, especially in fields related to information technology, requires that our knowledge be updated constantly. This characteristic of modern society poses seemingly unsolvable instructional problems involving coverage and obsolescence. The sheer amount of information to be learned is rapidly increasing, while at the same time some information becomes obsolete in light of new information. Education, therefore, must become a lifelong process that features learning of new material and skills as needed in relation to the job to be done. Because of the problems cited above, the current model of learning in advance may no longer be feasible in our high-technology world. In many cases, learning in advance is impossible because there are simply too many things to learn. In addition, learning in advance can be time consuming, and often results in decontextualized knowledge that does not readily transfer to the work environment. The large and growing discrepancy between the amount of potentially relevant knowledge available and the amount a person can know and remember makes learning on demand an important alternative to current instructional practices. Learning on demand takes place whenever an individual must learn something new in order to perform a task or make a decision. Learning on demand is a promising approach for addressing the problems of coverage and obsolescence because learning is contextualized and integrated into the task environment rather than being relegated to a separate phase that precedes work. Learning on demand allows learners

  3. Demand analyses of rice in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Mohamed, Zainalabidin; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Radam, Alias

    2008-01-01

    As a typical developing Asian county, the growth in per capita income generally brings to diversification in Malaysians food basket. The most significant observation is the falling in per capita consumption of rice with continuous growth of demand for wheat based products. The objective of this study is to estimate the demand elasticities of rice in Malaysia, focusing whether rice is an inferior good. By using data from Household Expenditure Survey 2004/2005, this study obtains demand elastic...

  4. Determining Demand for Help-Wanted Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Sherrer, Mary T.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the price of advertising space affects the demand for help-wanted advertising. To do so, this thesis develops and estimates an econometric model to explain and predict the demand for help-wanted advertising placed in a newspaper. For the most part, economic theory and the literature suggest that basic economic and demographic factors explain the demand for help-wanted advertising. The literature and empirical studies confirm an inverse relatio...

  5. The Market Demand for Air Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taneja, N.

    1972-01-01

    Although the presentation will touch upon the areas of market for air transportation, the theoretical foundations of the demand function, the demand models, and model selection and evaluation, the emphasis of the presentation will be on a qualitative description of the factors affecting the demand for air transportation. The presentation will rely heavily on the results of market surveys carried out by the Port of New York Authority, the University of Michigan, and Census of Transportation.

  6. Deterministic and heuristic models of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Knowing the demand of spare parts is the basis for successful spare parts inventory management. Inventory management has two aspects. The first one is operational management: acting according to certain models and making decisions in specific situations which could not have been foreseen or have not been encompassed by models. The second aspect is optimization of the model parameters by means of inventory management. Supply items demand (asset demand is the expression of customers' needs in units in the desired time and it is one of the most important parameters in the inventory management. The basic task of the supply system is demand fulfillment. In practice, demand is expressed through requisition or request. Given the conditions in which inventory management is considered, demand can be: - deterministic or stochastic, - stationary or nonstationary, - continuous or discrete, - satisfied or unsatisfied. The application of the maintenance concept is determined by the technological level of development of the assets being maintained. For example, it is hard to imagine that the concept of self-maintenance can be applied to assets developed and put into use 50 or 60 years ago. Even less complex concepts cannot be applied to those vehicles that only have indicators of engine temperature - those that react only when the engine is overheated. This means that the maintenance concepts that can be applied are the traditional preventive maintenance and the corrective maintenance. In order to be applied in a real system, modeling and simulation methods require a completely regulated system and that is not the case with this spare parts supply system. Therefore, this method, which also enables the model development, cannot be applied. Deterministic models of forecasting are almost exclusively related to the concept of preventive maintenance. Maintenance procedures are planned in advance, in accordance with exploitation and time resources. Since the timing

  7. Automation: Decision Aid or Decision Maker?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skitka, Linda J.

    1998-01-01

    This study clarified that automation bias is something unique to automated decision making contexts, and is not the result of a general tendency toward complacency. By comparing performance on exactly the same events on the same tasks with and without an automated decision aid, we were able to determine that at least the omission error part of automation bias is due to the unique context created by having an automated decision aid, and is not a phenomena that would occur even if people were not in an automated context. However, this study also revealed that having an automated decision aid did lead to modestly improved performance across all non-error events. Participants in the non- automated condition responded with 83.68% accuracy, whereas participants in the automated condition responded with 88.67% accuracy, across all events. Automated decision aids clearly led to better overall performance when they were accurate. People performed almost exactly at the level of reliability as the automation (which across events was 88% reliable). However, also clear, is that the presence of less than 100% accurate automated decision aids creates a context in which new kinds of errors in decision making can occur. Participants in the non-automated condition responded with 97% accuracy on the six "error" events, whereas participants in the automated condition had only a 65% accuracy rate when confronted with those same six events. In short, the presence of an AMA can lead to vigilance decrements that can lead to errors in decision making.

  8. Decision-Making Procedure and Decision Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleson, Brant R.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Strongly confirmed the hypothesis that groups employing an interacting decision procedure would produce better decisions than groups employing procedures that are either nominal (Delphi) or "staticized" (individual judgments statistically pooled). Provides clear and consistent support for the value of social interaction in small group decision…

  9. A Visual Analytics Based Decision Support Methodology For Evaluating Low Energy Building Design Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Ranojoy

    The ability to design high performance buildings has acquired great importance in recent years due to numerous federal, societal and environmental initiatives. However, this endeavor is much more demanding in terms of designer expertise and time. It requires a whole new level of synergy between automated performance prediction with the human capabilities to perceive, evaluate and ultimately select a suitable solution. While performance prediction can be highly automated through the use of computers, performance evaluation cannot, unless it is with respect to a single criterion. The need to address multi-criteria requirements makes it more valuable for a designer to know the "latitude" or "degrees of freedom" he has in changing certain design variables while achieving preset criteria such as energy performance, life cycle cost, environmental impacts etc. This requirement can be met by a decision support framework based on near-optimal "satisficing" as opposed to purely optimal decision making techniques. Currently, such a comprehensive design framework is lacking, which is the basis for undertaking this research. The primary objective of this research is to facilitate a complementary relationship between designers and computers for Multi-Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) during high performance building design. It is based on the application of Monte Carlo approaches to create a database of solutions using deterministic whole building energy simulations, along with data mining methods to rank variable importance and reduce the multi-dimensionality of the problem. A novel interactive visualization approach is then proposed which uses regression based models to create dynamic interplays of how varying these important variables affect the multiple criteria, while providing a visual range or band of variation of the different design parameters. The MCDM process has been incorporated into an alternative methodology for high performance building design referred to as

  10. Income distribution trends and future food demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirera, Xavier; Masset, Edoardo

    2010-09-27

    This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively.

  11. Modelling Demand for Broad Money in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Abbas Valadkhani

    2002-01-01

    The existence of a stable demand for money is very important for the conduct of monetary policy. It is argued that previous work on the demand for money in Australia has not been very satisfactory in a number of ways. This paper examines the long- and short-run determinants of the demand for broad money employing the Johansen cointegration technique and a short-run dynamic model. Using quarterly data for the period 1976:3-2002:2, this paper finds, inter alia, that the demand for broad money i...

  12. Income distribution trends and future food demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirera, Xavier; Masset, Edoardo

    2010-01-01

    This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively. PMID:20713387

  13. Medical decisions under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, A

    1993-01-01

    The court applies the criteria of the reasonable doctor and common practice in order to consider the behaviour of a defendant physician. The meaning of our demand that the doctor expects that his or her acts or omissions will bring about certain implications is that, according to the present circumstances and subject to the limited knowledge of the common practice, the course of certain events or situations in the future may be assumed in spite of the fog of uncertainty which surrounds us. The miracles and wonders of creation are concealed from us, and we are not aware of the way and the nature of our bodily functioning. Therefore, there seems to be no way to avoid mistakes, because in several cases the correct diagnosis cannot be determined even with the most advanced application of all information available. Doctors find it difficult to admit that they grope in the dark. They wish to form clear and accurate diagnoses for their patients. The fact that their profession is faced with innumerable and unavoidable risks and mistakes is hard to swallow, and many of them claim that in their everyday work this does not happen. They should not content themselves by changing their style. A radical metamorphosis is needed. They should not be tempted to formulate their diagnoses in 'neutral' statements in order to be on the safe side. Uncertainty should be accepted and acknowledged by the profession and by the public at large as a human phenomenon, as an integral part of any human decision, and as a clear characteristic of any legal or medical diagnosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  14. Arctic East Siberia had a lower latitude in the Pleistocene

    CERN Document Server

    Wölfli, W

    2006-01-01

    In Arctic East Siberia many remains of mammoths have been found. In this region there is not sufficient sunlight over the year to allow for the growth of the plants on which these animals feed. Consequently the latitude of these regions must have been lower before the end of the Pleistocene than at present. It is a challenge to reconstruct this geographic shift of the poles in a manner compa- tible with known facts. A possible sequence of events is described here. It as- sumes an additional planet, which must since have disappeared. This is possible, if it moved in an extremely eccentric orbit and was hot as a result of tidal work and solar radiation. During a few million years evaporation of this planet led to a disk-shaped cloud of ions moving around the Sun. This cloud partially shielded the Earth from the solar radiation, producing the alteration of cold and warm periods characterizing the Pleistocene. The degree of shielding is sensitive to the inclination of Earth's orbit, which has a period of 100000 y...

  15. Sun position calculator (SPC) for Landsat imagery with geodetic latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Jeong C.

    2015-12-01

    Landsat imagery comes with sun position information such as azimuth and sun elevation, but they are available only at the center of a scene. To aid in the use of Landsat imagery for various solar radiation applications such as topographic correction, solar power, urban heat island, agriculture, climate and vegetation, it is necessary to calculate the sun position information at every pixel. This research developed a PC application that creates sun position data layers in ArcGIS at every pixel in a Landsat scene. The SPC program is composed of two major routines - converting universal transverse Mercator (UTM) projection coordinates to geographic longitudes and latitudes, and calculating sun position information based on the Meeus' routine. For the latter, an innovative method was also implemented to account for the Earth's flattening on an ellipsoid. The Meeus routine implemented in this research showed about 0.2‧ of mean absolute difference from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) routine when solar zenith and azimuth angles were tested with every 30 min data at four city locations (Fairbanks, Atlanta, Sydney and Rio Grande) on June 30, 2014. The Meeus routine was about ten times faster than the SPA routine. Professionals who need the Sun's position information for Landsat imagery will benefit from the SPC application.

  16. Analysis of the atmospheric upward radiation in low latitude area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haiying; Wu, Zhensen; Lin, Leke; Lu, Changsheng

    2016-10-01

    Remote sensing using THz wave has irreplaceable advantage comparing to the microwave and the infrared waves, and study on the THz remote sensing become more and more popular in recent years. The major applications of the remote sensing in THz wavelengths are the retrieval of the atmospheric parameters and the microphysical information of the ice cloud. The remote sensing of the atmosphere is based on the radiation of THz wave along the earth-space path of which the most significant part is the upward radiation of the atmosphere. The upward radiation of the atmosphere in sunny day in the low latitude area is computed and analyzed in this paper. The absorption of THz wave by the atmosphere is calculated using the formulations illustrated in the Recommendation ITU-R P.676 to save machine hour, the frequency range is then restricted below 1THz. The frequencies used for the retrieval of atmospheric parameters such as temperature and water content are usually a few hundred GHz, at the lower end of THz wavelengths, so this frequency range is sufficient. The radiation contribution of every atmospheric layer for typical frequencies such as absorption window frequencies and peak frequencies are analyzed. Results show that at frequencies which absorption is severe, information about lower atmosphere cannot reach the receiver onboard a satellite or other high platforms due to the strong absorption along the path.

  17. Cluster observations of mid-latitude hiss near the plasmapause

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Masson

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available In the vicinity of the plasmapause, around the geomagnetic equator, the four Cluster satellites often observe banded hiss-like electromagnetic emissions (BHE; below the electron gyrofrequency but above the lower hybrid resonance, from 2kHz to 10kHz. We show that below 4kHz, these waves propagate in the whistler mode. Using the first year of scientific operations of WHISPER, STAFF and WBD wave experiments on Cluster, we have identified the following properties of the BHE waves: (i their location is strongly correlated with the position of the plasmapause, (ii no MLT dependence has been found, (iii their spectral width is generally 1 to 2kHz, and (iv the central frequency of their emission band varies from 2kHz to 10kHz. All these features suggest that BHE are in fact mid-latitude hiss emissions (MLH. Moreover, the central frequency was found to be correlated with the Kp index. This suggests either that these banded emissions are generated in a given f/fce range, or that there is a Kp dependent Doppler shift between the satellites and a possible moving source of the MLH.

  18. A Study of Steady Magnetospheric Convection Using High Latitude Magnetometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Silva, J. T.; Erickson, K. N.; Engebretson, M. J.; Murr, D. L.; Hughes, W. J.

    2001-05-01

    Magnetometer data from the MACCS and CANOPUS arrays in northern North America have been analyzed during two of the intervals of steady magnetospheric convection identified by the GEM community, January 29-30 and February 3-4, 1998. These intervals were characterized by extended periods of southward interplanetary magnetic field (negative IMF Bz), and by the absence of substorms. The patterns of ionospheric current flow on the dayside were found to be in general agreement with the disturbance current system, SD, originally described by Silsbee and Vestine [1942]. This indicates that during extended periods of southward IMF the convection on the dayside is the same whether or not there are substorms. When plasma flow patterns measured by the SuperDARN auroral radar network were available for comparison, these patterns agreed with the patterns inferred from magnetometers. Further study will investigate convection patterns on the nightside, and a similar study of convection for the southern high latitude region will be conducted using data from Antarctic stations.

  19. Discovery of an Apparent High Latitude Galactic Supernova Remnant

    CERN Document Server

    Fesen, Robert; Black, Christine; Koeppel, Ari

    2015-01-01

    Deep H$\\alpha$ images of a faint emission complex 4.0 x 5.5 degrees in angular extent and located far off the Galactic plane at l = 70.0 degrees, b=-21.5 degrees reveal numerous thin filaments suggestive of a supernova remnant's shock emission. Low dispersion optical spectra covering the wavelength range 4500 - 7500 A show only Balmer line emissions for one filament while three others show a Balmer dominated spectrum along with weak [N I] 5198, 5200 A, [O I] 6300, 6364 A, [N II] 6583 A, [S II] 6716, 6731 A and in one case [O III] 5007 A line emission. Many of the brighter H$\\alpha$ filaments are visible in near UV GALEX images presumably due to C III] 1909 A line emission. ROSAT All Sky Survey images of this region show a faint crescent shaped X-ray emission nebula coincident with the portion of the H$\\alpha$ nebulosity closest to the Galactic plane. The presence of long, thin Balmer dominated emission filaments with associated UV emission and coincident X-ray emission suggests this nebula is a high latitude ...

  20. A review of recent MLT studies at low latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. R. Clemesha

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have shown a continuing interest in studies of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere region at low latitudes, with more than 50 papers dealing specifically with this area published over the past 5 years. Experimental ground-based work has been carried out mainly in South America and the Caribbean, India and the Pacific areas. Subjects of interest include gravity waves, tides and planetary waves, the temperature structure of the mesopause region, with special reference to temperature inversions and the two-level mesopause, sporadic neutral layers and their relationship with ionized layers, the possible effects of the micrometeoroid influx, and long-term trends in the MLT region. Experimental techniques in use include MF, MST and meteor radar, lidar, airglow (including satellite-borne limb-scanning measurements and rocket-borne instruments. Airglow imaging has shown itself to be a particularly useful technique, mainly for studying gravity wave propagation in the MLT region. This paper will present highlights of recent work and will discuss some of the problems which remain to be resolved.

  1. A polarised fast radio burst at low Galactic latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroff, Emily; SUPERB Collaboration; HESS Collaboration; ANTARES Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are a growing population of transients detected with radio telescopes which are thought to originate outside the Milky Way. Fewer than 20 sources exist in the literature and the majority of bursts have been found away from the plane of the Galaxy or where the Galactic contribution to the total electron column density is low. Here we report on the discovery of a new burst, FRB 150215, discovered with the Parkes radio telescope in real-time in February 2015. The burst was found to be 43±5% linearly polarised with an imprecisely determined rotation measure (RM) consistent with zero. The burst was followed-up with 9 telescopes to search for radio, optical, X-ray, γ-ray and neutrino emission from the location of the burst. No transient or variable emission was found to be associated with the burst and no repeat pulses have been observed in nine hours of Parkes observations. Radio images of the field were obtained following the FRB but would not have been sensitive enough to pick up a signal like the one emanating from WISE J071634.59-190039.2 following FRB150418 if it had been present. The sightline to the burst is close to the Galactic plane and the Galactic RM foreground may approach a null along this sightline, corresponding to a decreased total electron column density from the Milky Way. This might explain why this burst was detectable at low latitude whereas previous searches have been relatively unsuccessful.

  2. Latitude, elevational climatic zonation and speciation in New World vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Kozak, Kenneth H; Gómez, Juan Pablo; Parra, Juan Luis; McCain, Christy M; Bowie, Rauri C K; Carnaval, Ana C; Moritz, Craig; Rahbek, Carsten; Roberts, Trina E; Sanders, Nathan J; Schneider, Christopher J; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Zamudio, Kelly R; Graham, Catherine H

    2012-01-07

    Many biodiversity hotspots are located in montane regions, especially in the tropics. A possible explanation for this pattern is that the narrow thermal tolerances of tropical species and greater climatic stratification of tropical mountains create more opportunities for climate-associated parapatric or allopatric speciation in the tropics relative to the temperate zone. However, it is unclear whether a general relationship exists among latitude, climatic zonation and the ecology of speciation. Recent taxon-specific studies obtained different results regarding the role of climate in speciation in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and temperate-zone species do not differ from one another, yet the temperature range experienced by species in the temperate zone is greater than for those in the tropics. Moreover, tropical sister species tend to exhibit greater similarity in their climatic distributions than temperate sister species. This pattern suggests that evolutionary conservatism in the thermal niches of tropical taxa, coupled with the greater thermal zonation of tropical mountains, may result in increased opportunities for allopatric isolation, speciation and the accumulation of species in tropical montane regions. Our study exemplifies the power of combining phylogenetic and spatial datasets of global climatic variation to explore evolutionary (rather than purely ecological) explanations for the high biodiversity of tropical montane regions.

  3. Distance to the northern high-latitude HI shells

    CERN Document Server

    Puspitarini, Lucky

    2012-01-01

    A detailed 3D distribution of interstellar matter in the solar neighborhood is increasingly necessary. As part of a 3D mapping program, we aim at assigning a precise distance to the high-latitude HI gas in particular the northern part (b \\geq 55^{circ}) of the shell associated with the conspicuous radio continuum Loop I. This shell is thought to be the expanding boundary of an interstellar bubble inflated and recently reheated by the strong stellar winds of the nearby Scorpius-Centaurus OB. We recorded high-resolution spectra of 30 A-type target stars located at various distances in the direction of the northern part of Loop I. Interstellar NaI 5889-5895 and CaII K-H 3934-3968 {\\AA} are modeled and compared with the HI emission spectra from the LAB Survey. About two-thirds of our stellar spectra possess narrow interstellar lines. Narrow lines are located at the velocity of the main, low-velocity Loop 1 HI shell ([-6,+1] km/s in the LSR). Using Hipparcos distances to the target stars, we show that the closest ...

  4. Surface changes in mid-latitude regions on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomonidou, A.; Coustenis, A.; Lopes, R. M. C.; Hirtzig, M.; Rodriguez, S.; Stephan, K.; Sotin, C.; Drossart, P.; Lawrence, K.; Le Mouélic, S.; Bratsolis, E.; Jaumann, R.; Brown, R. H.; Malaska, M.

    2014-04-01

    We present a study focused on the mid-latitude and close to the equator surface regions on Titan that present an interest on their spectral behavior and/or morphology. These are regions where spectroscopic anomalies have been reported in the evolution of the brightness and several interpretations have been proposed (cryovolcanic candidates, evaporates, lacustrine, etc [1;2;5]). Also in our work here we have included analysis of some undifferentiated plains (also referred to as 'blandlands'), which are vast expanses of terrains that appear bland in the radar data [3]. By applying a Radiative transfer code [4;2] we have analyzed these regions to look for evolution with time through their spectral behavior. We use as reference point and calibration tool the surface albedo retrieval of the Huygens Landing site (Titan's ground truth) and we also check the variability of the surface albedo of these regions against areas that are not expected to change with time (e.g. dune fields), by retrieving their albedo differences at all wavelengths [2]. We report here surface albedo changes with time for some of these regions of interest that imply connection to exogenic and/or endogenic processes.

  5. Preface: The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) at equatorial latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinisch, Bodo; Bilitza, Dieter

    2017-07-01

    This issue of Advances in Space Research includes papers that report and discuss improvements of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). IRI is the international standard for the representation of the plasma in Earth's ionosphere and recognized as such by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR), the International Union of Radio Science (URSI), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the International Standardization Organization (ISO). As requested, particularly by COSPAR and URSI, IRI is an empirical model relying on most of the available and reliable ground and space observations of the ionosphere. As new data become available and as older data sources are fully exploited the IRI model undergoes improvement cycles to stay as close to the existing data record as possible. The latest episode of this process is documented in the papers included in this issue using data from the worldwide network of ionosondes, from a few of the incoherent scatter radars, from the Alouette and ISIS topside sounders, and from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The focus of this issue is on the equatorial and low latitude region that is of special importance for ionospheric physics because it includes the largest densities and steep density gradients in the double hump latitudinal structure, the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), which is characteristic for this region.

  6. Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Laken

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR flux on Earth's climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between the rate of GCR flux and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the cloud anomalies were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying a link between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79%/day (relative to the peak-to-peak amplitude of 11-yr solar cycle, decreases in cloud cover (~1.9%/day and increases in SLAT (~0.05 K/day. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. These results provide the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude: (i a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both the rate of GCR flux and internal precursor conditions; and (ii it is likely that this natural forcing has not contributed significantly to recent anthropogenic temperature rises.

  7. The single event upset environment for avionics at high latitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sims, A.J.; Dyer, C.S.; Peerless, C.L. (Defence Research Agency, Farnborough (United Kingdom). Space and Communications Dept.); Johansson, K.; Pettersson, H. (SAAB Military Aircraft, Linkoeping (Sweden)); Farren, J. (AEA Technology, Oxfordshire (United Kingdom). Harwell Lab.)

    1994-12-01

    Modern avionic systems for civil and military applications are becoming increasingly reliant upon embedded microprocessors and associated memory devices. The phenomenon of single event upset (SEU) is well known in space systems and designers have generally been careful to use SEU tolerant devices or to implement error detection and correction (EDAC) techniques where appropriate. In the past, avionics designers have had no reason to consider SEU effects but is clear that the more prevalent use of memory devices combined with increasing levels of IC integration will make SEU mitigation an important design consideration for future avionic systems. To this end, it is necessary to work towards producing models of the avionics SEU environment which will permit system designers to choose components and EDAC techniques which are based on predictions of SEU rates correct to much better than an order of magnitude. Measurements of the high latitude SEU environment at avionics altitude have been made on board a commercial airliner. Results are compared with models of primary and secondary cosmic rays and atmospheric neutrons. Ground based SEU tests of static RAMs are used to predict rates in flight.

  8. Birkeland current effects on high-latitude groundmagnetic field perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Laundal, K M; Lehtinen, N; Gjerloev, J W; Østgaard, N; Tenfjord, P; Reistad, J P; Snekvik, K; Milan, S E; Ohtani, S; Anderson, B J

    2016-01-01

    Magnetic perturbations on ground at high latitudes are directly associated only with the divergence-free component of the height-integrated horizontal ionospheric current, $\\textbf{J}_{\\perp,df}$. Here we show how $\\textbf{J}_{\\perp,df}$ can be expressed as the total horizontal current $\\textbf{J}_\\perp$ minus its curl-free component, the latter being completely determined by the global Birkeland current pattern. Thus in regions where $\\textbf{J}_\\perp = 0$, the global Birkeland current distribution alone determines the local magnetic perturbation. We show with observations from ground and space that in the polar cap, the ground magnetic field perturbations tend to align with the Birkeland current contribution in darkness but not in sunlight. We also show that in sunlight, the magnetic perturbations are typically such that the equivalent overhead current is anti-parallel to the convection, indicating that the Hall current system dominates. Thus the ground magnetic field in the polar cap relates to different c...

  9. UBVR polarimetry of high-galactic latitude carbon stars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. López

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Presentamos polarimetría y fotometría en las bandas UBVR, en el periodo de un año, de ocho estrellas de carbón de alta latitud galáctica: V Hya, CZ Hya, R For, R Lep, Y Cvn, T Dra, RV Aqr y RT Cap. La polarización observada alcanza su máximo valor en la banda U y es muy variable en el tiempo. Similarmente, la polarización en la banda B es muy variable pero sus valores son siempre inferiores a los obtenidos en la banda U. El origen y la variabilidad de la polarización en estas bandas puede explicarse como el resultado de la dispersión de la radiación de la estrella central en las regiones interiores de la envolvente circunestelar donde los granos de polvo y las moléculas son creados, destruidos y mezclados por ondas de choque.

  10. MBM 12: young protoplanetary discs at high galactic latitude

    CERN Document Server

    Meeus, G; Henning, T; Bouwman, J; Chen, C; Lawson, W; Apai, D; Pascucci, I; Sicilia-Aguilar, A

    2009-01-01

    (abridged) We present Spitzer infrared observations to constrain disc and dust evolution in young T Tauri stars in MBM 12, a star-forming cloud at high latitude with an age of 2 Myr and a distance of 275 pc. The region contains 12 T Tauri systems, with primary spectral types between K3 and M6; 5 are weak-line and the rest classical T Tauri stars. We first use MIPS and literature photometry to compile spectral energy distributions for each of the 12 members in MBM 12, and derive their IR excesses. The IRS spectra are analysed with the newly developed two-layer temperature distribution (TLTD) spectral decomposition method. For the 7 T Tauri stars with a detected IR excess, we analyse their solid-state features to derive dust properties such as mass-averaged grain size, composition and crystallinity. We find a spatial gradient in the forsterite to enstatite range, with more enstatite present in the warmer regions. The fact that we see a radial dependence of the dust properties indicates that radial mixing is not...

  11. Molecular cores of the high-latitude cloud MBM 40

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chol Minh, Y. C. Young; Kim, Hyun-Goo; Lee, Youngung; Park, Hyeran; Kim, Kwang-Tae; Park, Yong-Sun; Joon Kim, Sang

    2003-11-01

    Towards the high-latitude cloud MBM 40, we identify 3 dense molecular cores of M˜0.2-0.5 M ⊙, and sizes of ˜0.2 pc in diameter embedded in the H I cloud of ˜8 M ⊙ which is observed to be extended along the northeast-southwest direction. The molecular cloud is located almost perpendicularly to the H I emission. We confirm the previous result of Magnani et al. that MBM 40 is not a site for new star formations. We found a very poor correlation between the H I and the IRAS 100 μm emissions, but the CO (1-0) and 100 μm emissions show a better correlation of WCO/ I100=1±0.2 K km s -1 (MJy sr -1) -1. This ratio is larger by a factor of ≥5 than in dense dark clouds, which may indicate that the CO is less depleted in MBM 40 than in dense dark clouds.

  12. Variation in testosterone and corticosterone in amphibians and reptiles: relationships with latitude, elevation, and breeding season length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eikenaar, Cas; Husak, Jerry; Escallón, Camilo; Moore, Ignacio T

    2012-11-01

    Latitudinal variation in life-history traits has been the focus of numerous investigations, but underlying hormonal mechanisms have received much less attention. Steroid hormones play a central role in vertebrate reproduction and may be associated with life-history trade-offs. Consequently, circulating concentrations of these hormones vary tremendously across vertebrates, yet interspecific geographic variation in male hormone concentrations has been studied in detail only in birds. We here report on such variation in amphibians and reptiles, confirming patterns observed in birds. Using phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that in amphibians, but not in reptiles, testosterone and baseline corticosterone were positively related to latitude. Baseline corticosterone was negatively related to elevation in amphibians but not in reptiles. For both groups, testosterone concentrations were negatively related to breeding-season length. In addition, testosterone concentrations were positively correlated with baseline corticosterone in both groups. Our findings may best be explained by the hypothesis that shorter breeding seasons increase male-male competition, which may favor increased testosterone concentrations that modulate secondary sexual traits. Elevated energetic demands resulting from greater reproductive intensity may require higher baseline corticosterone. Thus, the positive relationship between testosterone and corticosterone in both groups suggests an energetic demand for testosterone-regulated behavior that is met with increased baseline glucocorticoid concentrations.

  13. Alcohol-approach inclinations and drinking identity as predictors of behavioral economic demand for alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Jason J; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Baldwin, Scott A; Murphy, James G; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2016-10-01

    Behavioral economic demand curve indices of alcohol consumption reflect decisions to consume alcohol at varying costs. Although these indices predict alcohol-related problems beyond established predictors, little is known about the determinants of elevated demand. Two cognitive constructs that may underlie alcohol demand are alcohol-approach inclinations and drinking identity. The aim of this study was to evaluate implicit and explicit measures of these constructs as predictors of alcohol demand curve indices. College student drinkers (N = 223, 59% female) completed implicit and explicit measures of drinking identity and alcohol-approach inclinations at 3 time points separated by 3-month intervals, and completed the Alcohol Purchase Task to assess demand at Time 3. Given no change in our alcohol-approach inclinations and drinking identity measures over time, random intercept-only models were used to predict 2 demand indices: Amplitude, which represents maximum hypothetical alcohol consumption and expenditures, and Persistence, which represents sensitivity to increasing prices. When modeled separately, implicit and explicit measures of drinking identity and alcohol-approach inclinations positively predicted demand indices. When implicit and explicit measures were included in the same model, both measures of drinking identity predicted Amplitude, but only explicit drinking identity predicted Persistence. In contrast, explicit measures of alcohol-approach inclinations, but not implicit measures, predicted both demand indices. Therefore, there was more support for explicit, versus implicit, measures as unique predictors of alcohol demand. Overall, drinking identity and alcohol-approach inclinations both exhibit positive associations with alcohol demand and represent potentially modifiable cognitive constructs that may underlie elevated demand in college student drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Drivers of U.S. mineral demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznopek, John L.

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: The word 'demand' has different meanings for different people. To some, it means their 'wants and needs,' to others it is what they consume. Yet, when considering economics, demand refers to the specific amounts of goods or services that individuals will purchase at various prices. Demand is measured over a given time period. It is determined by a number of factors including income, tastes, and the price of complementary and substitute goods. In this paper, the term consumption is used fairly synonymously with the term demand. Most mineral commodities, like iron ore, copper, zinc, and gravel, are intermediate goods, which means that they are used in the production of other goods, called final goods. Demand for intermediate goods is called derived demand because such demand is derived from the demand for final goods. When demand increases for a commodity, generally the price rises. With everything else held constant, this increases the profits for those who provide this commodity. Normally, this would increase profits of existing producers and attract new producers to the market. When demand for a commodity decreases, generally the price falls. Normally, this would cause profits to fall and, as a consequence, the least efficient firms may be forced from the industry. Demand changes for specific materials as final goods or production techniques are reengineered while maintaining or improving product performance, for example, the use of aluminum in the place of copper in long distance electrical transmission lines or plastic replacing steel in automobile bumpers. Substitution contributes to efficient material usage by utilizing cheaper or technically superior materials. In this way, it may also alleviate materials scarcity. If a material becomes relatively scarce (and thus more expensive), a more abundant (and less expensive) material generally replaces it (Wagner and others, 2003, p. 91).

  15. Stability of the unlinked Latitude total elbow prosthesis: A biomechanical in vitro analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagener, Marc L.; Vos, de Maarten J.; Hendriks, Jan C.M.; Eygendaal, Denise; Verdonschot, Nico

    2013-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study is to assess the valgus and varus laxity of the unlinked version of the Latitude total elbow prosthesis and the effects of radial head preservation or replacement. Methods Biomechanical analysis of the valgus and varus laxity of the unlinked Latitude was perform

  16. Stability of the unlinked Latitude total elbow prosthesis: A biomechanical in vitro analysis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagener, M.L.; Vos, M.J. de; Hendriks, J.C.M.; Eygendaal, D.; Verdonschot, N.J.J.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to assess the valgus and varus laxity of the unlinked version of the Latitude total elbow prosthesis and the effects of radial head preservation or replacement. METHODS: Biomechanical analysis of the valgus and varus laxity of the unlinked Latitude was perfor

  17. Circadian Rhythms of Locomotor Activity in Captive Birds and Mammals : Their Variations with Season and Latitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daan, Serge; Aschoff, Jürgen

    1975-01-01

    1. The seasonal variations in time of daily onset and end of locomotor activity are described for 3 species of mammals and 5 species of birds kept in captivity at the arctic circle and at lower latitude. These variations are most pronounced at high latitude. 2. The duration of daily activity plotted

  18. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low l...

  19. Schizophrenia and vitamin D related genes could have been subject to latitude-driven adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monticelli Antonella

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many natural phenomena are directly or indirectly related to latitude. Living at different latitudes, indeed, has its consequences with being exposed to different climates, diets, light/dark cycles, etc. In humans, one of the best known examples of genetic traits following a latitudinal gradient is skin pigmentation. Nevertheless, also several diseases show latitudinal clinals such as hypertension, cancer, dismetabolic conditions, schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease and many more. Results We investigated, for the first time on a wide genomic scale, the latitude-driven adaptation phenomena. In particular, we selected a set of genes showing signs of latitude-dependent population differentiation. The biological characterization of these genes showed enrichment for neural-related processes. In light of this, we investigated whether genes associated to neuropsychiatric diseases were enriched by Latitude-Related Genes (LRGs. We found a strong enrichment of LRGs in the set of genes associated to schizophrenia. In an attempt to try to explain this possible link between latitude and schizophrenia, we investigated their associations with vitamin D. We found in a set of vitamin D related genes a significant enrichment of both LRGs and of genes involved in schizophrenia. Conclusions Our results suggest a latitude-driven adaptation for both schizophrenia and vitamin D related genes. In addition we confirm, at a molecular level, the link between schizophrenia and vitamin D. Finally, we discuss a model in which schizophrenia is, at least partly, a maladaptive by-product of latitude dependent adaptive changes in vitamin D metabolism.

  20. Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guido Grosse; Jennifer Harden; Merritt Turetsky; A. David McGuire; Philip Camill; Charles Tarnocai; Steve Frolking; Edward Schuur; Torre Jorgenson; Sergei Marchenko; Vladimir Romanovsky; Kimberly P. Wickland; Nancy French; Mark Waldrop; Laura Bourgeau-Chavez; Robert G. Streigl

    2011-01-01

    This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools...

  1. Investigation of High-Latitude Phenomena Using Polar Data and Global Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Christopher T.; Hoffman, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this one-year project was to use data from the Polar satellite in conjunction with global simulations of Earth's magnetosphere to investigate phenomena in the high-latitude magnetosphere. Specifically, we addressed reconnection at the cusp during periods of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the effects of substorms on the high-latitude magnetosphere.

  2. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the rest of your life Having major surgery Getting genetic or cancer screening tests Talking together about your options helps your provider know how you feel and what you value. How Shared Decision Making Works When facing a decision, your ...

  3. On the cause of IMF By related mid- and low latitude magnetic disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Christiansen, Freddy; Olsen, Nils

    2007-01-01

    An analysis of the effect of the IMF By on near-Earth low and mid-latitude magnetic disturbances is presented. In particular the contribution from field-aligned currents ( FACs) connected to the polar regions is investigated. Based on statistically determined high-latitude FAC patterns for various...... Interplanetary Magnetic Field ( IMF) directions, we estimate the FAC contribution to the mid-and low latitude magnetic disturbance and its dependence on the IMF. The estimated perturbations are compared with observations from the ground and from the low-altitude polar orbiting satellite Oersted. It is found...... that the long-distance effect of the high-latitude FACs constitute the major source to IMF By and B-z related magnetic east-west disturbances at mid-and low latitudes....

  4. MAJOR AGRICULTURAL MIGRANT LABOR DEMAND AREAS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Department of Labor, Washington, DC.

    DEPICTED ARE 12 CHARTS OF MAJOR CROP PRODUCTION CENTERS IN THE UNITED STATES WHICH DEMAND THE LABOR OF MIGRATORY FARM WORKERS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. EACH CHART ILLUSTRATES THE AREAS OF AGRICULTURAL MIGRANT LABOR DEMAND FOR ONE MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE PURPOSE IS TO ACQUAINT THE PUBLIC WITH THE COMPLEXITY OF PLACING AND SCHEDULING MIGRATORY WORKERS…

  5. Disaggregation of the demand for hospital care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.K.A. van Doorslaer (Eddy); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1988-01-01

    textabstractIn this article we want to confront some of the results of the theoretical literature on aggregation with the empirical consequences of aggregation in the context of the analysis of demand for hospital care. There has been an evolution in the estimation of hospital demand functions from

  6. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  7. Job demands, health perception and sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.; Koopmans, P.C.; de Graaf, J.H.; van Zandbergen, J.W.; Groothoff, J.W.

    2007-01-01

    Background Investigation of the relations between job demands, health and sickness absence is required to design a strategy for the prevention of absence and disability. Aim To study the relationships between (physical and psychological) job demands, health perception and sickness absence. Methods

  8. Simple utility functions with Giffen demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2007-01-01

    Simple utility functions with the Giffen property are presented: locally, the demand curve for a good is upward sloping. The utility functions represent continuous, monotone, convex preferences......Simple utility functions with the Giffen property are presented: locally, the demand curve for a good is upward sloping. The utility functions represent continuous, monotone, convex preferences...

  9. Information management - Assessing the demand for information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, William H.

    1991-01-01

    Information demand is defined in terms of both information content (what information) and form (when, how, and where it is needed). Providing the information richness required for flight crews to be informed without overwhelming their information processing capabilities will require a great deal of automated intelligence. It is seen that the essence of this intelligence is comprehending and capturing the demand for information.

  10. Lighting Systems Control for Demand Response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Husen, S.A.; Pandharipande, A.; Tolhuizen, L.M.G.; Wang, Y.; Zhao, M.

    2012-01-01

    Lighting is a major part of energy consumption in buildings. Lighting systems will thus be one of the important component systems of a smart grid for dynamic load management services like demand response.In the scenario considered in this paper, under a demand response request, lighting systems in a

  11. A Novel Technique to Enhance Demand Responsiveness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a new pricing approach is proposed to increase demand responsiveness. The proposed approach considers two well-known demand side management techniques, namely peak shaving and valley filling. This is done by incentivising consumers by magnifying price difference between peak and off...

  12. Energy infrastructure: Mapping future electricity demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, Anthony C.

    2016-08-01

    Electricity distribution system planners rely on estimations of future energy demand to build adequate supply, but these are complicated to achieve. An approach that combines spatially resolved projections of population movement and climate change offers a method for building better demand maps to mid-century.

  13. Job demands, health perception and sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.; Koopmans, P.C.; de Graaf, J.H.; van Zandbergen, J.W.; Groothoff, J.W.

    2007-01-01

    Background Investigation of the relations between job demands, health and sickness absence is required to design a strategy for the prevention of absence and disability. Aim To study the relationships between (physical and psychological) job demands, health perception and sickness absence. Methods P

  14. Disaggregation of the demand for hospital care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.K.A. van Doorslaer (Eddy); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1988-01-01

    textabstractIn this article we want to confront some of the results of the theoretical literature on aggregation with the empirical consequences of aggregation in the context of the analysis of demand for hospital care. There has been an evolution in the estimation of hospital demand functions from

  15. The Demand for Rental Homes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skak, Morten

    2007-01-01

    development, and gives some indications of the future demand for rental housing in Denmark. The results indicate a future stagnant rental demand kept up by an increasing share of persons of old age and young persons undergoing education, and thus a rising homeownership rate. It is believed that the structural...

  16. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  17. Intermittent demand : Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.; Babai, M. Zied

    2011-01-01

    The standard method to forecast intermittent demand is that by Croston. This method is available in ERP-type solutions such as SAP and specialised forecasting software packages (e.g. Forecast Pro), and often applied in practice. It uses exponential smoothing to separately update the estimated demand

  18. Cost and Demand Characteristics of Telecom Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falch, Morten

    1997-01-01

    The Chapter presents the general characteristics of the cost and demand profiles for telecommunication services and identifies the barriers towards a free competitive market for telecommunication services related to these characteristics.......The Chapter presents the general characteristics of the cost and demand profiles for telecommunication services and identifies the barriers towards a free competitive market for telecommunication services related to these characteristics....

  19. Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2014-01-01

    Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...

  20. Demand flexibility from residential heat pump

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2014-01-01

    with high thermal time constant, heat pumps (HP) can offer a great deal of flexibility in the future intelligent grids especially to compensate fluctuating generation. However, the HP flexibility is highly dependent on thermal demand profile, namely hot water and space heating demand. This paper proposes...