Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-01-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

PCA and vTEC climatology at midnight over mid-latitude regions

Science.gov (United States)

Natali, M. P.; Meza, A.

2017-12-01

The effect of the thermospheric vertical neutral wind on vertical total electron content (vTEC) variations including longitudinal anomaly, remaining winter anomaly, mid-latitude summer night anomaly, and semiannual anomaly is studied at mid-latitude regions around zero magnetic declination at midnight during high solar activity. By using the principal component analysis (PCA) numerical technique, this work studies the spatial and temporal variations of the ionosphere at midnight over mid-latitude regions during 2000-2002. PCA is applied to a time series of global vTEC maps produced by the International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service. Four regions were studied in particular, each located at mid-latitude and approximately centered at zero magnetic declination, with two in the northern hemisphere and two in southern hemisphere, and all are located near and far from geomagnetic poles in each case. This technique provides an effective method to analyze the main ionospheric variabilities at mid-latitudes. PCA is also applied to the vTEC computed using the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2012 model, to analyze the capability of this model to represent ionospheric variabilities at mid-latitude. Also, the Horizontal Wind Model 2007 (HWM07) is used to improve our climatology interpretation, by analyzing the relationship between vTEC and thermospheric wind, both quantitatively and qualitatively. At midnight, the behavior of mean vTEC values strongly responds to vertical wind variation, experiencing a decrease of about 10-15% with the action of the positive vertical component of the field-aligned neutral wind lasting for 2 h in all regions except for Oceania. Notable results include: a significant increase toward higher latitudes during summer in the South America and Asia regions, associated with the mid-latitude summer night anomaly, and an increase toward higher latitudes in winter in the North America and Oceania regions, highlighting the

Ulysses radio and plasma wave observations at high southern heliographic latitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, R G; Macdowall, R J; Fainberg, J; Kaiser, M L; Desch, M D; Goldstein, M L; Hoang, S; Bougeret, J L; Harvey, C C; Manning, R; Steinberg, J L; Kellogg, P J; Lin, N; Goetz, K; Osherovich, V A; Reiner, M J; Canu, P; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N; Lengyel-Frey, D; Thejappa, G

1995-05-19

Ulysses spacecraft radio and plasma wave observations indicate that some variations in the intensity and occurrence rate of electric and magnetic wave events are functions of heliographic latitude, distance from the sun, and phase of the solar cycle. At high heliographic latitudes, solartype Ill radio emissions did not descend to the local plasma frequency, in contrast to the emission frequencies of some bursts observed in the ecliptic. Short-duration bursts of electrostatic and electromagnetic waves were often found in association with depressions in magnetic field amplitude, known as magnetic holes. Extensive wave activity observed in magnetic clouds may exist because of unusually large electron-ion temperature ratios. The lower number of intense in situ wave events at high latitudes was likely due to the decreased variability of the high- latitude solar wind.

Demand, Energy, and Power Factor

Science.gov (United States)

1994-08-01

POWER FACTOR DEFINITION I Basically , power factor (pf) is a measure of how effectively the plant uses the electricity it purchases from the utility. It...not be made available by the plant. U 24 This video is relatively short, less than fifteen-minutes, and covers the basics on demand, block extenders... ratemaking methodology and test period as used in determining the NC-RS rates. Pending final decision by the FERC, the Federal Government would pay a rate as

Association between Upper Extremity Musculoskeletal Disorders and Psychosocial Factors at Work: A Review on the Job DCS Model's Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jung-Keun; Jang, Seung-Hee

2010-09-01

Over years it has been increasingly concerned with how upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs) are attributed to psychosocial job stressors. A review study was conducted to examine associations between UEMSDs and psychosocial work factors, and to recommend what to consider for the associations. For studies in which the job demand-control-support (DCS) model or its variables were specifically employed, published papers were selected and reviewed. A number of studies have reported relationships between UEMSDs symptoms and psychosocial exposure variables. For example, the findings are: higher numbness in the upper extremity was significantly attributed to by less decision latitude at work; work demands were significantly associated with neck and shoulder symptoms while control over time was associated with neck symptoms; and the combination of high psychosocial demands and low decision latitude was a significant predictor for shoulder and neck pain in a female working population. Sources of bias, such as interaction or study design, were discussed. UEMSDs were shown to be associated with psychosocial work factors in various studies where the job DCS model was addressed. Nonetheless, this review suggests that further studies should be conducted to much more clarify the association between UEMSDs and psychosocial factors.

Contribution of the psychosocial work environment to psychological distress among health care professionals before and during a major organizational change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavoie-Tremblay, Melanie; Bonin, Jean-Pierre; Lesage, Alain D; Bonneville-Roussy, Arielle; Lavigne, Geneviève L; Laroche, Dominique

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between 4 dimensions of the psychosocial work environment (psychological demands, decision latitude, social support, and effort-reward) among health care professionals as well as their psychological distress during a reorganization process. A correlational descriptive design was used for this quantitative study. A total of 159 health care professionals completed the questionnaire at T1, and 141 at T2. First, before the work reorganization, effort-reward imbalance was the sole variable of the psychological work environment that significantly predicted psychological distress. Second, the high overall level of psychological distress increased during the process of organizational change (from T1 to T2). Finally, effort-reward imbalance, high psychological demands, and low decision latitude were all significant predictors of psychological distress at T2, during the organizational change. In conclusion, to reduce the expected negative outcomes of restructuring on health care practitioners, managers could increase the number of opportunities for rewards, carefully explain the demands, and clarify the tasks to be performed by each of the employees to reduce their psychological burden and increase their perceptions of autonomy.

Agent assisted interactive algorithm for computationally demanding multiobjective optimization problems

OpenAIRE

Ojalehto, Vesa; Podkopaev, Dmitry; Miettinen, Kaisa

2015-01-01

We generalize the applicability of interactive methods for solving computationally demanding, that is, time-consuming, multiobjective optimization problems. For this purpose we propose a new agent assisted interactive algorithm. It employs a computationally inexpensive surrogate problem and four different agents that intelligently update the surrogate based on the preferences specified by a decision maker. In this way, we decrease the waiting times imposed on the decision maker du...

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Telfah, Dua'a. B.; Minciardi, Riccardo; Roth, Giorgio

2018-06-01

Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. B. Telfah

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in

Energetic Particles at High Latitudes of the Heliosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ming

2004-01-01

Ulysses has by now made two complete out-of-ecliptic orbits around the sun. The first encounter of the solar poles occurred in 1994-1995, when the sun was near the minimum of its activity cycle, while the second one was in 2000-2001, when the sun was at solar maximum. To our surprise, energetic particles of all origins at high latitude are not much different from those we observe near the ecliptic for at least these two phases of solar cycle. The latitude gradients of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays are positive but small at the 1994-1995 solar minimum and almost zero at the 2000-2001 solar maximum, while temporal solar cycle variation dominates their flux variation at all latitudes. Solar energetic particles from all large gradual events can be seen at both Ulysses and Earth no matter how large their spatial separations from the solar event are, and the particle flux often reaches a uniform level in the entire inner heliosphere within a few days after event onset and remains so throughout the decay phase that can sometimes last over a month. Energetic particles accelerated by low-latitude CIRs can appear at high latitudes, far beyond the latitudinal range of CIRs. All these observations suggest that latitudinal transport of energetic particles is quite easy. In addition, because the average magnetic field is radial at the pole, The Ulysses observations indicate that parallel diffusion and drift in the radial direction need to be reduced at the poles relative to their equatorial values. To achieve such behaviors of particle transport, the heliospheric magnetic field needs a significant latitudinal component at the poles. A non-zero latitudinal magnetic field component can be produced by latitudinal motion of the magnetic field line in solar corona, which can be in form of either random walk suggested by Jokipii or large scale systematic motion suggested by Fisk

Higher latitude and lower solar radiation influence on anaphylaxis in Chilean children.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyos-Bachiloglu, Rodrigo; Morales, Pamela S; Cerda, Jaime; Talesnik, Eduardo; González, Gilberto; Camargo, Carlos A; Borzutzky, Arturo

2014-06-01

Recent studies suggest an association between higher latitude, a proxy of vitamin D (VD) status, and allergic diseases. Chile provides an ideal setting to study this association due to its latitude span and high rates of VD deficiency in southern regions. The aim of this study is to explore the associations of latitude and solar radiation with anaphylaxis admission rates. We reviewed anaphylaxis admissions in Chile's hospital discharge database between 2001 and 2010 and investigated associations with latitude and solar radiation. 2316 anaphylaxis admissions were registered. Median age of patients was 41 yr; 53% were female. National anaphylaxis admission rate was 1.41 per 100,000 persons per year. We observed a strong north-south increasing gradient of anaphylaxis admissions (β 0.04, p = 0.01), with increasing rates south of latitude 34°S. A significant association was also observed between solar radiation and anaphylaxis admissions (β -0.11, p = 0.009). Latitude was associated with food-induced (β 0.05, p = 0.02), but not drug-induced (β -0.002, p = 0.27), anaphylaxis. The association between latitude and food-induced anaphylaxis was significant in children (β 0.01, p = 0.006), but not adults (β 0.003, p = 0.16). Anaphylaxis admissions were not associated with regional sociodemographic factors like poverty, rurality, educational level, ethnicity, or physician density. Anaphylaxis admission rates in Chile are highest at higher latitudes and lower solar radiation, used as proxies of VD status. The associations appear driven by food-induced anaphylaxis. Our data support a possible role of VD deficiency as an etiological factor in the high anaphylaxis admission rates found in southern Chile. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The International Study of Leadership in Education: Monitoring Decision Making by School Leaders

Science.gov (United States)

Wildy, Helen; Forster, Pat; Louden, William; Wallace, John

2004-01-01

School principals have difficulty embracing the competing demands of school restructuring. These demands include being accountable for the outcomes of other decision-making groups within, or external to, the school community; having strong views while making decisions collaboratively; and using group processes without wasting the time, commitment,…

Simultaneous high- and low-latitude reconnection: ESR and DMSP observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Pitout

2002-09-01

Full Text Available We present EISCAT Svalbard Radar and DMSP observations of a double cusp during an interval of predominantly northward IMF on 26 November 2000. In the cusp region, the ESR dish, pointing northward, recorded sun-ward ionospheric flow at high latitudes (above 82° GL, indicating reconnection occuring in the magnetospheric lobe. Meanwhile, the same dish also recorded bursts of poleward flow, indicative of bursty reconnection at the subsolar magnetopause. Within this time interval, the DMSP F13 satellite passed in the close vicinity of the Svalbard archipelago. The particle measurement on board exhibited a double cusp structure in which two oppositely oriented ion dispersions are recorded. We interpret this set of data in terms of simultaneous merging at low- and high-latitude magnetopause. We discuss the conditions for which such simultaneous high-latitude and low-latitude reconnection can be anticipated. We also discuss the consequences of the presence of two X-lines in the dayside polar ionosphere.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (solar wind-magnetosphere interactions – Ionosphere (polar ionosphere; plasma convection

Psychosocial work environment and health in U.S. metropolitan areas: a test of the demand-control and demand-control-support models.

Science.gov (United States)

Muntaner, C; Schoenbach, C

1994-01-01

The authors use confirmatory factor analysis to investigate the psychosocial dimensions of work environments relevant to health outcomes, in a representative sample of five U.S. metropolitan areas. Through an aggregated inference system, scales from Schwartz and associates' job scoring system and from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) were employed to examine two alternative models: the demand-control model of Karasek and Theorell and Johnson's demand-control-support model. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the two models. The two multidimensional models yielded better fits than an unstructured model. After allowing for the measurement error variance due to the method of assessment (Schwartz and associates' system or DOT), both models yielded acceptable goodness-of-fit indices, but the fit of the demand-control-support model was significantly better. Overall these results indicate that the dimensions of Control (substantive complexity of work, skill discretion, decision authority), Demands (physical exertion, physical demands and hazards), and Social Support (coworker and supervisor social supports) provide an acceptable account of the psychosocial dimensions of work associated with health outcomes.

Latitudes: new Indian transnational cinema.

Science.gov (United States)

Villarejo, Amy

2014-01-01

This article examines films and video art that speak to conditions of exile and displacement, including the work of Mona Hatoum, Sonali Gulati, and Onir. It proposes the term "latitude" to interrogate the aesthetic and formal properties of these artworks, seeking to understand how lesbian and same-sex eroticism and identities are central to their efficacy.

Towards decision support for waiting lists: an operations management view.

Science.gov (United States)

Vissers, J M; Van Der Bij, J D; Kusters, R J

2001-06-01

This paper considers the phenomenon of waiting lists in a healthcare setting, which is characterised by limitations on the national expenditure, to explore the potentials of an operations management perspective. A reference framework for waiting list management is described, distinguishing different levels of planning in healthcare--national, regional, hospital and process--that each contributes to the existence of waiting lists through managerial decision making. In addition, different underlying mechanisms in demand and supply are distinguished, which together explain the development of waiting lists. It is our contention that within this framework a series of situation specific models should be designed to support communication and decision making. This is illustrated by the modelling of the demand for cataract treatment in a regional setting in the south-eastern part of the Netherlands. An input-output model was developed to support decisions regarding waiting lists. The model projects the demand for treatment at a regional level and makes it possible to evaluate waiting list impacts for different scenarios to meet this demand.

Effective Heuristics for Capacitated Production Planning with Multiperiod Production and Demand with Forecast Band Refinement

OpenAIRE

Philip Kaminsky; Jayashankar M. Swaminathan

2004-01-01

In this paper we extend forecast band evolution and capacitated production modelling to the multiperiod demand case. In this model, forecasts of discrete demand for any period are modelled as bands and defined by lower and upper bounds on demand, such that future forecasts lie within the current band. We develop heuristics that utilize knowledge of demand forecast evolution to make production decisions in capacitated production planning environments. In our computational study we explore the ...

Return to work from long-term sick leave: a six-year prospective study of the importance of adjustment latitudes at work and home.

Science.gov (United States)

Dellve, Lotta; Fallman, Sara L; Ahlstrom, Linda

2016-01-01

The aim was to investigate the long-term importance of adjustment latitude for increased work ability and return to work among female human service workers on long-term sick leave. A cohort of female human service workers on long-term sick leave (>60 days) was given a questionnaire four times (0, 6, 12, 60 months). Linear mixed models were used for longitudinal analysis of the repeated measurements of work ability and return to work. Having a higher level of adjustment latitude was associated with both increased work ability and return to work. Adjustments related to work pace were strongly associated with increased work ability, as were adjustments to the work place. Having individual opportunities for taking short breaks and a general acceptance of taking short breaks were associated with increased work ability. At home, a higher level of responsibility for household work was related to increased work ability and return to work. Individuals with possibilities for adjustment latitude, especially pace and place at work, and an acceptance of taking breaks had greater increased work ability over time and a greater work ability compared with individuals who did not have such opportunities. This study highlights the importance of opportunities for adjustment latitude at work to increase work ability and return to work among female human service workers who have been on long-term sick leave. The results support push and pull theories for individual decision-making on return to work.

Real-life decision making in college students. I: Consistency across specific decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Galotti, Kathleen M; Wiener, Hillary J D; Tandler, Jane M

2014-01-01

First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for an upcoming term (3 different terms), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. Participants showed moderate levels of consistency in the options they considered and in the criteria they used to decide between options, with about half of the options or criteria being used at 2 different points on the decision repeatedly studied. Participants varied somewhat in structural consistency, the tendency to consider the same number of options or criteria across decisions. They also varied in the way they integrated information across decision-making tasks. We suggest that people attempt to keep the information demands of the task within workable limits, sometimes sacrificing consistency as a result.

Behavioral aspects of regulation: A discussion on switching and demand response in Turkish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sirin, Selahattin Murat; Gonul, Mustafa Sinan

2016-01-01

Electricity sector has been transformed from state-owned monopolistic utilities to competitive markets with an aim to promote incentives for improving efficiency, reducing costs and increasing service quality to customers. One of the cardinal assumptions of the liberalized and competitive electricity markets is the rational actor, and decision-makers are assumed to make the best decisions that maximize their utility. However, a vast literature on behavioral economics has shown the weakness of economic theory in explaining and predicting individuals’ decision-making behavior. This issue is quite important for competition in electricity markets in which consumers’ preferences have a significant role. Despite its importance, this issue has almost been neglected in Turkey, which has taken major steps in electricity sector restructuring. Therefore, this paper aims to examine switching and demand response behavior in Turkish electricity market by using multiple correspondence and panel data analysis, and findings are discussed in light of the neoclassical and behavioral economics literature. Analyses’ results show that consumers’ switching and demand response behavior is consistent with the neoclassical literature to some extent; however, behavioral factors are also affecting consumers’ decisions. Furthermore, there are systemic problems that hinder effective functioning of the electricity market and restrict competition. - Highlights: • Behavioral economics can provide insights for consumer’ decisions. • Switching and demand response behavior is examined by econometric methods. • Results is consistent with the neoclassical literature to some extent • However, behavioral factors are also affecting consumers’ decisions.

The Abnormal Quiet Days in SQ(H) in Mid and Low Latitudes Regions

African Journals Online (AJOL)

From the analysis and study of abnormal quiet days (AQDs) at mid and low latitudes locations, it was found that there is difference between the characteristics of phase variability Sq (H) of the low latitude locations. This suggests that the origin and cause of AQDs are of different sources in the two latitude regions. The AQDs ...

Modeling storage and demand management in power distribution grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroeder, Andreas

2011-01-01

Grahical abstract: The model informs an optimal investment sizing decision as regards specific 'smart grid' applications such as storage facilities and meters enabling load control. Results indicate that central storage facilities are a more promising option for generation cost reductions as compared to demand management. Highlights: → Stochastic versus deterministic model increases investment efficiency up to 5%. → Deterministic model under-estimates value of load control and storage. → Battery storage is beneficial at investment cost below 850 EUR/MW h. → Demand management equipment is not beneficial at cost beyond 200 EUR. → The stylized 10 kV grid constitutes no shortage factor. -- Abstract: Storage devices and demand control may constitute beneficial tools to optimize electricity generation with a large share of intermittent resources through inter-temporal substitution of load. This paper quantifies the related cost reductions in a simulation model of a simplified stylized medium-voltage grid (10 kV) under uncertain demand and wind output. Benders Decomposition Method is applied to create a two-stage stochastic optimization program. The model informs an optimal investment sizing decision as regards specific 'smart' applications such as storage facilities and meters enabling load control. Model results indicate that central storage facilities are a more promising option for generation cost reductions as compared to demand management. Grid extensions are not appropriate in any of the scenarios. A sensitivity analysis is applied with respect to the market penetration of uncoordinated Plug-In Electric Vehicles which are found to strongly encourage investment into load control equipment for 'smart' charging and slightly improve the case for central storage devices.

Distributed MPC applied to power demand side control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Larsen, G.K.H.; Pons, J.; Achterop, S.; Scherpen, J.M.A.

2013-01-01

In the future, global energy balance of a smart grid system can be achieved by its agents deciding on their own power demand locally and the exchange of these decisions. In this paper, we model a network of households with washing machine programs that can be shifted in time so that the overall

An empirical examination of consumer effects across twenty degrees of latitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavender, James T; Dafforn, Katherine A; Bishop, Melanie J; Johnston, Emma L

2017-09-01

The strength and importance of consumer effects are predicted to increase toward low latitudes, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested using a spatially consistent methodology. In a consumer-exclusion experiment spanning twenty degrees of latitude along the east Australian coast, the magnitude of consumer effects on sub-tidal sessile assemblage composition was not greater at low than high latitudes. Across caged and control assemblages, Shannon's diversity, Pielou's evenness, and richness of functional groups decreased with increasing latitude, but the magnitude of consumer effects on these metrics did not display consistent latitudinal gradients. Instead, latitudinal gradients in consumer effects were apparent for individual functional groups. Solitary ascidians displayed the pattern consistent with predictions of greater direct effects of predators at low than high latitude. As consumers reduced the biomass of this and other competitive dominants, groups less prone to predation (e.g., hydroids, various groups of bryozoans) were able to take advantage of freed space in the presence of consumers and show increased abundances there. This large-scale empirical study demonstrates the complexity of species interactions, and the failure of assemblage-level metrics to adequately capture consumer effects over large spatial gradients. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashkan Hafezalkotob

2011-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set of risk-averse retailers. The strategic decisions are frequently taking precedence over tactical ones. Therefore, we first find equilibrium of tactical decisions for each possible scenario of supply chain network. Afterwards, we find optimal distribution network of the new supply chain by the scenario evaluation method. Numerical example, including sensitivity analysis will illustrate how the conservative behaviors of chains' members affect expected demand, profit, and utility of each distribution scenario.

Quebec residential electricity demand: a microeconometric approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.T.; Bolduc, D.; Belanger, D.

1996-01-01

An economic analysis of Quebec residential electricity demand was studied by micro-simulation models. These structural models describe all components which lead to decisions upon durable holdings and electric appliance usage. The demand for space and water heating systems was evaluated. Recent price change in favour of energy sources other than electricity were taken into account. Price and income elasticity ratios were found to be low, as expected when estimating short term use. The role played by socio-economic variables on the choice of space-water heating systems and electricity use was also examined. Recent conversions have indicated a trend toward preference by households in favour of natural gas or oil over electricity. 18 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

East-west ion drifts at mid-latitudes observed by Dynamics Explorer 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heelis, R.A.; Coley, W.R.

1992-01-01

Zonal ion drifts measured from the polar orbiting DE 2 spacecraft are examined to determine the effects of dynamo electric fields and penetration of high latitude electric fields at middle latitudes. Construction of a local time distribution from satellite data results in a mixture of local time and season as well as a range of magnetic activity encompassing Kp ≤ 2 and Kp ≥ 3. Thus some combination of magnetospheric effects, expected to dominate during disturbed times, are seen during both quiet and disturbed times and solar tidal influences are most easily observed during quiet times. During quiet times, at invariant latitudes near 25 degrees, the solar diurnal tide dominates the local time distribution of the ion drift. At latitudes above 50 degrees a diurnal component of comparable magnitude is also present, but its magnetospheric origin produces a shift in phase of almost 180 degrees from the lower latitude diurnal tide. In the intervening region, between 20 degrees and 50 degrees invariant latitude, semidurnal and terdiurnal components in the local time distribution of the drift velocity are also seen. These components are generally larger than those seen by ground based radars during quiet times and may be attributable in part to a difference in solar activity and in part to a combination of the solar tides and magnetospheric penetration fields

Forecasting Demand for Automotive Aftermarket Inventories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ovidiu-Alin DOBRICAN

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Management decisions regarding the resource allocation in the automotive aftermarket in-volves a good understanding of it. This includes a better understanding of the participants in this market, the supply chains, specificities products and demand for these products. A useful instrument to anticipate the latter is the use of simulation methods, one of them being the Monte Carlo method, which, in this paper, is used to create various scenarios of supply.

Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

2013-04-01

Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

Public participation: Increased demands in the 1990s

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brocke, L.K.

1991-01-01

The environmental wave of the 1980s will continue through the year 2000 and beyond. The public is demanding more and more involvement in development decisions. The issue not only for industry, but for regulators as well, is how to accomodate these public demands. In Alberta, the opportunity for the public to participate in the decision-making process regarding major energy projects has always been available. Any proponent is required to involve the public during the preparation of their environmental impact assessment and a quasi-judicial public hearing is provided for. This process, although efficient, tends to be confrontational and often does not result in a resolution of issues. As a result, community advisory committees often evolve out of the hearing to enable the affected community to become more actively involved in the project development and operation. In the oil sands region, this confrontational dilemma has been evident with the native community of Fort McKay since development began. In an effort to address this dilemma, The Alberta government initiated the community committee concept as a standing committee to deal with any new development proposals. The result has been open consultation with the community and resolution of issues before any confrontation could develop. Regional land use and reclamation decisions are being made with input of all stakeholders. 3 refs

Local endemicity and high diversity characterise high-latitude coral- Symbiodinium partnerships

Science.gov (United States)

Wicks, L. C.; Sampayo, E.; Gardner, J. P. A.; Davy, S. K.

2010-12-01

Obligate symbiotic dinoflagellates ( Symbiodinium) residing within the tissues of most reef invertebrates are important in determining the tolerance range of their host. Coral communities living at high latitudes experience wide fluctuations in environmental conditions and thus provide an ideal system to gain insights into the range within which the symbiotic relationship can be sustained. Further, understanding whether and how symbiont communities associated with high-latitude coral reefs are different from their tropical counterparts will provide clues to the potential of corals to cope with marginal or changing conditions. However, little is known of the host and symbiont partnerships at high latitudes. Symbiodinium diversity and specificity of high-latitude coral communities were explored using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) analysis of the internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS1 and ITS2) of the ribosomal DNA at Lord Howe Island (31°S; Australia), and the Kermadec Islands (29°S; New Zealand). All but one host associated with clade C Symbiodinium, the exception being a soft coral ( Capnella sp.) that contained Symbiodinium B1. Besides ‘host-generalist’ Symbiodinium types C1 and C3, approximately 72% of the Symbiodinium identified were novel C types, and zonation of symbionts in relation to environmental parameters such as depth and turbidity was evident in certain host species. The high-latitude Symbiodinium communities showed little overlap and relatively high diversity compared with communities sampled on the tropical Great Barrier Reef. Although host specificity was maintained in certain species, others shared symbionts and this potential reduction of fidelity at high-latitude locations may be the result of locally challenging and highly variable environmental conditions.

ROTATION RATE DIFFERENCES OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS BETWEEN ±60° LATITUDES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shi, X. J.; Xie, J. L., E-mail: shixiangjun@ynao.ac.cn [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China)

2015-04-15

Based on a cross-correlation analysis of the Carrington synoptic maps of solar photospheric magnetic fields from Carrington Rotations Nos. 1625 to 2135 (from 1975 February to 2013 March), the sidereal rotation rates of the positive and negative magnetic fields in the latitude range of ±60° are obtained, and the rotation rate differences between them are investigated. The time–latitude distribution of the rate differences is shown, which looks like a butterfly diagram at the low and middle latitudes. For comparison, the time–latitude distribution of the longitudinally averaged photospheric magnetic fields is shown. We conclude that the magnetic fields having the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere rotate faster than those exhibiting the opposite polarity at low and middle latitudes. However, at higher latitudes, the magnetic fields having the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere do not always rotate faster than those with the opposite polarity. Furthermore, the relationship between the rotation rate differences and solar magnetic fields is studied through a correlation analysis. Our result shows that the correlation coefficients between them reach maximum values at 13° (14°) latitude in the northern (southern) hemisphere, and change sign at 28° latitude in both hemispheres, then reach their minimum values at 58° (53°) latitude in the northern (southern) hemisphere.

[Cost-conscious medical decisions. Normative guidance within the conflicting demands of ethics and economics].

Science.gov (United States)

Marckmann, G; In der Schmitten, J

2014-05-01

Under the current conditions in the health care system, physicians inevitably have to take responsibility for the cost dimension of their decisions on the level of single cases. This article, therefore, discusses the question how physicians can integrate cost considerations into their clinical decisions at the microlevel in a medically rational and ethically justified way. We propose a four-step model for "ethical cost-consciousness": (1) forego ineffective interventions as required by good evidence-based medicine, (2) respect individual patient preferences, (3) minimize the diagnostic and therapeutic effort to achieve a certain treatment goal, and (4) forego expensive interventions that have only a small or unlikely (net) benefit for the patient. Steps 1-3 are ethically justified by the principles of beneficence, nonmaleficence, and respect for autonomy, step 4 by the principles of justice. For decisions on step 4, explicit cost-conscious guidelines should be developed locally or regionally. Following the four-step model can contribute to ethically defensible, cost-conscious decision-making at the microlevel. In addition, physicians' rationing decisions should meet basic standards of procedural fairness. Regular cost-case discussions and clinical ethics consultation should be available as decision support. Implementing step 4, however, requires first of all a clear political legitimation with the corresponding legal framework.

Effect of Health Insurance on Demand for Outpatient Medical Care in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ahavugimana

objective of this paper is to examine factors influencing outpatient care demand in ..... Endogeneity of health insurance arises because the decision to purchase health ... insurance plan, or by purchasing privately a generous coverage. Existing ...

CORAL REEFS. Genomic determinants of coral heat tolerance across latitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, Groves B; Davies, Sarah W; Aglyamova, Galina A; Meyer, Eli; Bay, Line K; Matz, Mikhail V

2015-06-26

As global warming continues, reef-building corals could avoid local population declines through "genetic rescue" involving exchange of heat-tolerant genotypes across latitudes, but only if latitudinal variation in thermal tolerance is heritable. Here, we show an up-to-10-fold increase in odds of survival of coral larvae under heat stress when their parents come from a warmer lower-latitude location. Elevated thermal tolerance was associated with heritable differences in expression of oxidative, extracellular, transport, and mitochondrial functions that indicated a lack of prior stress. Moreover, two genomic regions strongly responded to selection for thermal tolerance in interlatitudinal crosses. These results demonstrate that variation in coral thermal tolerance across latitudes has a strong genetic basis and could serve as raw material for natural selection. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A Big Data Decision-making Mechanism for Food Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji Guojun

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Many companies have captured and analyzed huge volumes of data to improve the decision mechanism of supply chain, this paper presents a big data harvest model that uses big data as inputs to make more informed decisions in the food supply chain. By introducing a method of Bayesian network, this paper integrates sample data and finds a cause-and-effect between data to predict market demand. Then the deduction graph model that translates foods demand into processes and divides processes into tasks and assets is presented, and an example of how big data in the food supply chain can be combined with Bayesian network and deduction graph model to guide production decision. Our conclusions indicate that the decision-making mechanism has vast potential by extracting value from big data.

Schizophrenia and vitamin D related genes could have been subject to latitude-driven adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, Roberto; Pinelli, Michele; Monticelli, Antonella; Miele, Gennaro; Cocozza, Sergio

2010-11-11

Many natural phenomena are directly or indirectly related to latitude. Living at different latitudes, indeed, has its consequences with being exposed to different climates, diets, light/dark cycles, etc. In humans, one of the best known examples of genetic traits following a latitudinal gradient is skin pigmentation. Nevertheless, also several diseases show latitudinal clinals such as hypertension, cancer, dismetabolic conditions, schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease and many more. We investigated, for the first time on a wide genomic scale, the latitude-driven adaptation phenomena. In particular, we selected a set of genes showing signs of latitude-dependent population differentiation. The biological characterization of these genes showed enrichment for neural-related processes. In light of this, we investigated whether genes associated to neuropsychiatric diseases were enriched by Latitude-Related Genes (LRGs). We found a strong enrichment of LRGs in the set of genes associated to schizophrenia. In an attempt to try to explain this possible link between latitude and schizophrenia, we investigated their associations with vitamin D. We found in a set of vitamin D related genes a significant enrichment of both LRGs and of genes involved in schizophrenia. Our results suggest a latitude-driven adaptation for both schizophrenia and vitamin D related genes. In addition we confirm, at a molecular level, the link between schizophrenia and vitamin D. Finally, we discuss a model in which schizophrenia is, at least partly, a maladaptive by-product of latitude dependent adaptive changes in vitamin D metabolism.

Demand for electrical energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.

1983-01-01

The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr

A two-level discount model for coordinating a decentralized supply chain considering stochastic price-sensitive demand

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Jafar; Norouzinasab, Yousef

2015-12-01

In this paper, a discount model is proposed to coordinate pricing and ordering decisions in a two-echelon supply chain (SC). Demand is stochastic and price sensitive while lead times are fixed. Decentralized decision making where downstream decides on selling price and order size is investigated. Then, joint pricing and ordering decisions are extracted where both members act as a single entity aim to maximize whole SC profit. Finally, a coordination mechanism based on quantity discount is proposed to coordinate both pricing and ordering decisions simultaneously. The proposed two-level discount policy can be characterized from two aspects: (1) marketing viewpoint: a retail price discount to increase the demand, and (2) operations management viewpoint: a wholesale price discount to induce the retailer to adjust its order quantity and selling price jointly. Results of numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed policy is suitable to coordinate SC and improve the profitability of SC as well as all SC members in comparison with decentralized decision making.

A Big Data Decision-making Mechanism for Food Supply Chain

OpenAIRE

Ji Guojun; Tan KimHua

2017-01-01

Many companies have captured and analyzed huge volumes of data to improve the decision mechanism of supply chain, this paper presents a big data harvest model that uses big data as inputs to make more informed decisions in the food supply chain. By introducing a method of Bayesian network, this paper integrates sample data and finds a cause-and-effect between data to predict market demand. Then the deduction graph model that translates foods demand into processes and divides processes into ta...

Demands on attention and the role of response priming in visual discrimination of feature conjunctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Lisa R; Herbert, Rhonda J; Farris, Carrie

2004-10-01

This study examined how response mapping of features within single- and multiple-feature targets affects decision-based processing and attentional capacity demands. Observers judged the presence or absence of 1 or 2 target features within an object either presented alone or with distractors. Judging the presence of 2 features relative to the less discriminable of these features alone was faster (conjunction benefits) when the task-relevant features differed in discriminability and were consistently mapped to responses. Conjunction benefits were attributed to asynchronous decision priming across attended, task-relevant dimensions. A failure to find conjunction benefits for disjunctive conjunctions was attributed to increased memory demands and variable feature-response mapping for 2- versus single-feature targets. Further, attentional demands were similar between single- and 2-feature targets when response mapping, memory demands, and discriminability of the task-relevant features were equated between targets. Implications of the findings for recent attention models are discussed. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

Capacity, pressure, demand, and flow: A conceptual framework for analyzing ecosystem service provision and delivery

Science.gov (United States)

Villamagna, Amy M.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Bennett, Elena M.

2013-01-01

Ecosystem services provide an instinctive way to understand the trade-offs associated with natural resource management. However, despite their apparent usefulness, several hurdles have prevented ecosystem services from becoming deeply embedded in environmental decision-making. Ecosystem service studies vary widely in focal services, geographic extent, and in methods for defining and measuring services. Dissent among scientists on basic terminology and approaches to evaluating ecosystem services create difficulties for those trying to incorporate ecosystem services into decision-making. To facilitate clearer comparison among recent studies, we provide a synthesis of common terminology and explain a rationale and framework for distinguishing among the components of ecosystem service delivery, including: an ecosystem's capacity to produce services; ecological pressures that interfere with an ecosystem's ability to provide the service; societal demand for the service; and flow of the service to people. We discuss how interpretation and measurement of these four components can differ among provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Our flexible framework treats service capacity, ecological pressure, demand, and flow as separate but interactive entities to improve our ability to evaluate the sustainability of service provision and to help guide management decisions. We consider ecosystem service provision to be sustainable when demand is met without decreasing capacity for future provision of that service or causing undesirable declines in other services. When ecosystem service demand exceeds ecosystem capacity to provide services, society can choose to enhance natural capacity, decrease demand and/or ecological pressure, or invest in a technological substitute. Because regulating services are frequently overlooked in environmental assessments, we provide a more detailed examination of regulating services and propose a novel method for quantifying the flow of

Association between Work Related Stress and Health Related Quality of Life: The Impact of Socio-Demographic Variables. A Cross Sectional Study in a Region of Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe La Torre

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this work is investigate relationship between health-related quality of life and work-related stress and the impact of gender, education level, and age on this relationship. A cross-sectional study was conducted among workers of various setting in Rome and Frosinone. Work-related stress was measured with a demand–control questionnaire and health-related functioning by SF (short form-12 health survey. There were 611 participants. Men reported high mental composite summary (MCS and physical composite summary (PCS. In multivariate analysis age, gender (p < 0.001 and job demand (0.045 predicted low PCS. Low MCS predicted poor PCS. Job demand and educational level resulted negatively associated with MCS. In an analysis stratified for age, gender, and educational level, gender and age resulted effect modifier for MCS, gender and education level for PCS. In women increase of decision latitude predict (p = 0.001 an increase in MCS; a low job demand predict high MCS in male (p ≤ 0.001. In younger workers, a lower level of job demand predicted high MCS (<0.001. For PCS, gender and education level resulted effect modifier. In women, high decision latitude predicted higher PCS (p = 0.001 and lower level of job demand results in higher PCS (p ≤ 0.001. Higher educational level resulted predictor of low PCS. Management of risk about work-related stress should consider socio-demographic factors.

Electrodynamic coupling of high and low latitudes: Observations on May 27, 1993

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kobea, A.T.; Richmond, A.D.; Emery, B.A.

2000-01-01

The penetration of disturbance electric fields from the polar region to the magnetic equator on the dayside of the Earth is examined with geomagnetic data on May 27, 1993. First, we examine a dayside equatorial disturbance that followed the rapid recovery of magnetic activity from a storm...... than 1 min for fluctuations having periods like those examined here. A synoptic inversion analysis of the high-latitude magnetic data to estimate the time-varying high-latitude electric potential patterns shows that fluctuations of the high-latitude east-west potential gradient tended...

Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cvijanovic, Ivana

of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical......High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yuanyuan; Wang Jianzhou; Zhao Ge; Dong Yao

2012-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting could prove to be a useful policy tool for decision-makers; thus, accurate forecasting of electricity demand is valuable in allowing both power generators and consumers to make their plans. Although a seasonal ARIMA model is widely used in electricity demand analysis and is a high-precision approach for seasonal data forecasting, errors are unavoidable in the forecasting process. Consequently, a significant research goal is to further improve forecasting precision. To help people in the electricity sectors make more sensible decisions, this study proposes residual modification models to improve the precision of seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting. In this study, PSO optimal Fourier method, seasonal ARIMA model and combined models of PSO optimal Fourier method with seasonal ARIMA are applied in the Northwest electricity grid of China to correct the forecasting results of seasonal ARIMA. The modification models forecasting of the electricity demand appears to be more workable than that of the single seasonal ARIMA. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the three residual modification models is higher than the single seasonal ARIMA model and that the combined model is the most satisfactory of the three models. - Highlights: ► Three residual modification models are proposed to improve the precision of seasonal ARIMA. ► Accurate electricity demand forecast is helpful for a power production sector to come to a correct and reasonable decision. ► The results conclude that the residual modification approaches could enhance the prediction accuracy of seasonal ARIMA. ► The modification models could be applied to forecast electricity demand.

Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ieva Kekytė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

An Economic Customer-Oriented Demand Response Model in Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

2018-01-01

Consumer choice theory is a branch of microeconomics. This theory relates to adjusting consumption expenditures and consumer demand curve. Consumer choice science is trying to realize the buyer's decision-making process. This science studies customer characteristics, such as behavioral criteria......, to understand the consumer’s need. The concept of price elasticity of demand (PED) has also been derived from this theory. In fact, the PED is the percentage of changes in the amount of demand relative to the price changes. In consumer choice theory, for each consumer according to behavioral criteria, a unique...... demand response (DR) models have been developed based on this concept, this will also be deemed as a disadvantage for them. In this paper, we propose an economic DR model based on economic theories and mathematical methods. In addition to abate the defects of price-elasticity based DR models...

Electric utilities and the demand for natural gas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uri, N D; Atkinson, S

1976-03-01

The scarcity of natural gas has given rise to a series of priorities of deliveries based on end use and drafted by the Federal Power Commission. The U.S. Supreme Court, on June 7, 1972, held that the Commission has jurisdiction over curtailments in the service of gas in interstate commerce to both resale and direct industrial customers. This decision reversed a Fifth Circuit Court ruling that protected direct industrial customers from curtailments. The FPC priority curtailments are classed from 1 to 9, for which electric utilities are concentrated in classes 4 to 9. As weather conditions become more severe, not only do the residential and commercial consumers demand more electrical energy, they also demand more natural gas. The result is that there is less natural gas available for electric utilities to use for generation so they change to an alternative fuel. A demand model for the short term for natural gas for electric utilities is given; primary factors involve the price of natural gas, the prices of substitute fuels, and the demand for electrical energy by the various consumer classes. (MCW)

Projected beam irradiation at low latitudes using Meteonorm database

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hatwaambo, Sylvester; Perers, Bengt; Karlsson, Björn

2009-01-01

by a collector provided the projection angle lies within the acceptance angle. The Meteonorm method of calculating solar radiation on any arbitrary oriented surface uses the globally simulated meteorological databases. Meteonorm has become a valuable too for estimating solar radiation where measured solar...... radiation data is missing or irregular. In this paper we present the projected beam solar radiation at low latitudes based on the standard Meteonorm calculations. The conclusion is that there is potential in using solar concentrators at these latitudes since the projected beam radiation is more during...

Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

2016-11-01

Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

Ocean-driven heating of Europa's icy shell at low latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Soderlund, K. M.; Schmidt, B. E.; Wicht, J.; Blankenship, D. D.

2014-01-01

The ice shell of Jupiter's moon Europa is marked by regions of disrupted ice known as chaos terrains that cover up to 40% of the satellite's surface, most commonly occurring within 40° of the equator. Concurrence with salt deposits implies a coupling between the geologically active ice shell and the underlying liquid water ocean at lower latitudes. Europa's ocean dynamics have been assumed to adopt a two-dimensional pattern, which channels the moon's internal heat to higher latitudes. Here we present a numerical model of thermal convection in a thin, rotating spherical shell where small-scale convection instead adopts a three-dimensional structure and is more vigorous at lower latitudes. Global-scale currents are organized into three zonal jets and two equatorial Hadley-like circulation cells. We find that these convective motions transmit Europa's internal heat towards the surface most effectively in equatorial regions, where they can directly influence the thermo-compositional state and structure of the ice shell. We suggest that such heterogeneous heating promotes the formation of chaos features through increased melting of the ice shell and subsequent deposition of marine ice at low latitudes. We conclude that Europa's ocean dynamics can modulate the exchange of heat and materials between the surface and interior and explain the observed distribution of chaos terrains.

Schizophrenia and vitamin D related genes could have been subject to latitude-driven adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monticelli Antonella

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many natural phenomena are directly or indirectly related to latitude. Living at different latitudes, indeed, has its consequences with being exposed to different climates, diets, light/dark cycles, etc. In humans, one of the best known examples of genetic traits following a latitudinal gradient is skin pigmentation. Nevertheless, also several diseases show latitudinal clinals such as hypertension, cancer, dismetabolic conditions, schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease and many more. Results We investigated, for the first time on a wide genomic scale, the latitude-driven adaptation phenomena. In particular, we selected a set of genes showing signs of latitude-dependent population differentiation. The biological characterization of these genes showed enrichment for neural-related processes. In light of this, we investigated whether genes associated to neuropsychiatric diseases were enriched by Latitude-Related Genes (LRGs. We found a strong enrichment of LRGs in the set of genes associated to schizophrenia. In an attempt to try to explain this possible link between latitude and schizophrenia, we investigated their associations with vitamin D. We found in a set of vitamin D related genes a significant enrichment of both LRGs and of genes involved in schizophrenia. Conclusions Our results suggest a latitude-driven adaptation for both schizophrenia and vitamin D related genes. In addition we confirm, at a molecular level, the link between schizophrenia and vitamin D. Finally, we discuss a model in which schizophrenia is, at least partly, a maladaptive by-product of latitude dependent adaptive changes in vitamin D metabolism.

A multi-stage stochastic program for supply chain network redesign problem with price-dependent uncertain demands

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan; Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil

2018-01-01

In this paper, we address a multi-period supply chain network redesign problem in which customer zones have price-dependent stochastic demand for multiple products. A novel multi-stage stochastic program is proposed to simultaneously make tactical decisions including products' prices and strategic...... redesign decisions. Existing uncertainty in potential demands of customer zones is modeled through a finite set of scenarios, described in the form of a scenario tree. The scenarios are generated using a Latin Hypercube Sampling method and then a forward scenario construction technique is employed...

U.S. electric utility demand-side management 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management report is prepared by the Coal and Electric Data and Renewables Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternative Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. The report presents comprehensive information on electric power industry demand-side management (DSM) activities in the US at the national, regional, and utility levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decision makers, government policy makers, analysts, and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding DSM as it relates to the US electric power industry. The first chapter, ''Profile: US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management'', presents a general discussion of DSM, its history, current issues, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent chapters present discussions and more detailed data on energy savings, peak load reductions and costs attributable to DSM. 9 figs., 24 tabs

Seed demand and supply in eastern and northern Uganda ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mo

Increased farmer demand for a new variety (as opposed to the desire of ... The study highlighted the need for decisions making on seed interventions to be based ... and a field study of farmers' current practices and constraints ... A total of 10 households evenly .... For seed interventions to succeed, an understanding of the.

Educator Supply and Demand in Washington State. 2004 Report

Science.gov (United States)

Lashway, Larry; Maloney, Rick; Hathaway, Randy; Bryant, B. J.

2005-01-01

This report describes the findings of the third Educator Supply and Demand Research study in the State of Washington. The intent of these Washington studies is to provide data to inform and shape decisions and activities in the following ways: (1) Provide useful information for educational policymakers, including the legislature, the State Board…

Association between Upper Extremity Musculoskeletal Disorders and Psychosocial Factors at Work: A Review on the Job DCS Model’s Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jung-Keun Park

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Over years it has been increasingly concerned with how upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs are attributed to psychosocial job stressors. A review study was conducted to examine associations between UEMSDs and psychosocial work factors, and to recommend what to consider for the associations. For studies in which the job demand-control-support (DCS model or its variables were specifically employed, published papers were selected and reviewed. A number of studies have reported relationships between UEMSDs symptoms and psychosocial exposure variables. For example, the findings are: higher numbness in the upper extremity was significantly attributed to by less decision latitude at work; work demands were significantly associated with neck and shoulder symptoms while control over time was associated with neck symptoms; and the combination of high psychosocial demands and low decision latitude was a significant predictor for shoulder and neck pain in a female working population. Sources of bias, such as interaction or study design, were discussed. UEMSDs were shown to be associated with psychosocial work factors in various studies where the job DCS model was addressed. Nonetheless, this review suggests that further studies should be conducted to much more clarify the association between UEMSDs and psychosocial factors.

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Grosse, Guido; Harden, Jennifer W.; Turetsky, Merritt; McGuire, A. David; Camill, Philip; Tarnocai, Charles; Frolking, Steve; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Jorgenson, Torre; Marchenko, Sergei; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Wickland, Kimberly P.; French, Nancy; Waldrop, Mark P.; Bourgeau-Chavez, Laura L.; Striegl, Robert G.

2011-01-01

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Response of surface air temperature to small-scale land clearing across latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Mi; Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Yu, Guirui; Wang, Huimin; Han, Shijie; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Yiping; Li, Yide; Ohta, Takeshi; Hirano, Takashi; Kim, Joon; Yoshifuji, Natsuko

2014-01-01

Climate models simulating continental scale deforestation suggest a warming effect of land clearing on the surface air temperature in the tropical zone and a cooling effect in the boreal zone due to different control of biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Ongoing land-use/cover changes mostly occur at local scales (hectares), and it is not clear whether the local-scale deforestation will generate temperature patterns consistent with the climate model results. Here we paired 40 and 12 flux sites with nearby weather stations in North and South America and in Eastern Asia, respectively, and quantified the temperature difference between these paired sites. Our goal was to investigate the response of the surface air temperature to local-scale (hectares) land clearing across latitudes using the surface weather stations as proxies for localized land clearing. The results show that north of 10°N, the annual mean temperature difference (open land minus forest) decreases with increasing latitude, but the temperature difference shrinks with latitude at a faster rate in the Americas [−0.079 (±0.010) °C per degree] than in Asia [−0.046 (±0.011) °C per degree]. Regression of the combined data suggests a transitional latitude of about 35.5°N that demarks deforestation warming to the south and cooling to the north. The warming in latitudes south of 35°N is associated with increase in the daily maximum temperature, with little change in the daily minimum temperature while the reverse is true in the boreal latitudes. (paper)

Geosynchronous inclined orbits for high-latitude communications

Science.gov (United States)

Fantino, E.; Flores, R. M.; Di Carlo, M.; Di Salvo, A.; Cabot, E.

2017-11-01

We present and discuss a solution to the growing demand for satellite telecommunication coverage in the high-latitude geographical regions (beyond 55°N), where the signal from geostationary satellites is limited or unavailable. We focus on the dynamical issues associated to the design, the coverage, the maintenance and the disposal of a set of orbits selected for the purpose. Specifically, we identify a group of highly inclined, moderately eccentric geosynchronous orbits derived from the Tundra orbit (geosynchronous, eccentric and critically inclined). Continuous coverage can be guaranteed by a constellation of three satellites in equally spaced planes and suitably phased. By means of a high-precision model of the terrestrial gravity field and the relevant environmental perturbations, we study the evolution of these orbits. The effects of the different perturbations on the ground track (which is more important for coverage than the orbital elements themselves) are isolated and analyzed. The physical model and the numerical setup are optimized with respect to computing time and accuracy. We show that, in order to maintain the ground track unchanged, the key parameters are the orbital period and the argument of perigee. Furthermore, corrections to the right ascension of the ascending node are needed in order to preserve the relative orientation of the orbital planes. A station-keeping strategy that minimizes propellant consumption is then devised, and comparisons are made between the cost of a solution based on impulsive maneuvers and one with continuous thrust. Finally, the issue of end-of-life disposal is discussed.

Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

2016-01-01

Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

Job characteristics in relation to the prevalence of myocardial infarction in the US Health Examination Survey (HES) and the Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HANES).

Science.gov (United States)

Karasek, R A; Theorell, T; Schwartz, J E; Schnall, P L; Pieper, C F; Michela, J L

1988-08-01

Associations between psychosocial job characteristics and past myocardial infarction (MI) prevalence for employed males were tested with the Health Examination Survey (HES) 1960-61, N = 2,409, and the Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HANES) 1971-75, N = 2,424. A new estimation method is used which imputes to census occupation codes, job characteristic information from national surveys of job characteristics (US Department of Labor, Quality of Employment Surveys). Controlling for age, we find that employed males with jobs which are simultaneously low in decision latitude and high in psychological work load (a multiplicative product term isolating 20 per cent of the population) have a higher prevalence of myocardial infarction in both data bases. In a logistic regression analysis, using job measures adjusted for demographic factors and controlling for age, race, education, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking (HANES only), and physical exertion, we find a low decision latitude/high psychological demand multiplicative product term associated with MI in both data bases. Additional multiple logistic regressions show that low decision latitude is associated with increased prevalence of MI in both the HES and the HANES. Psychological workload and physical exertion are significant only in the HANES.

Characterization of SEP events at high heliographic latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalla, S.; Balogh, A.; Krucker, S.; Posner, A.; Mueller-Mellin, R.; Anglin, J.D.; Hofer, M.Y.; Marsden, R.G.; Sanderson, T.R.; Heber, B.; Zhang, M.; McKibben, R.B.

2003-01-01

Between February 2000 and May 2002, the Ulysses spacecraft made the first ever measurements of solar energetic particles (SEPs) at high heliographic latitudes. Nine large gradual SEP events were detected at latitudes greater than 45 deg., their signatures being clearest at high particle energies, i.e. protons >30 MeV and electrons >0.1 MeV. In this paper we measure the onset times of Ulysses high latitude events in several energy channels, and plot them versus inverse particle speed. We repeat the procedure for near Earth observations by Wind and SOHO. Velocity dispersion is observed in all the events near Earth and in most of them at Ulysses. The plots of onset times versus inverse speed allow to derive an experimental path length and time of release from the solar atmosphere. We find that the derived path lengths at Ulysses are longer than the length of a Parker spiral magnetic field line connecting it to the Sun, by a factor between 1.2-2.7. The time of particle release from the Sun is typically between 100 and 200 mins later than the release time derived from in-ecliptic measurements. Unlike near Earth observations, Ulysses measurements are therefore not compatible with scatter-free propagation from the Sun to the spacecraft

Supplier-induced demand as strategic framing

OpenAIRE

De Jaegher, K.J.M.

2010-01-01

This paper develops a model of supplier-induced demand as strategic framing where the patient has reference-dependent references, and the physician can persuade the patient to buy a treatment by affecting the patient’s reference point. In the main result, the patient is assumed to have a constant rate of risk aversion (lovingness) in the gain (loss) region. Two scenarios are treated. In the cure scenario, the physician wants to frame the patient’s decision problem such that he prefers to buy ...

Rare observation of daytime whistlers at very low latitude (L = 1.08)

Science.gov (United States)

Gokani, Sneha A.; Singh, Rajesh; Tulasi Ram, S.; Venkatesham, K.; Veenadhari, B.; Kumar, Sandeep; Selvakumaran, R.

2018-04-01

The source region and propagation mechanism of low latitude whistlers (Geomag. lat. point. But the plausible conditions of ionospheric medium through which they travel are still uncertain. In addition to that, the whistlers in daytime are never observed at geomagnetic latitudes less than 20°. Here, for the first time, we present a rare observations of whistlers during sunlit hours from a very low-latitude station Allahabad (Geomag. Lat: 16.79°N, L = 1.08) in India on 04 February 2011. More than 90 whistlers are recorded during 1200-1300 UT during which the whole propagation path from lightning source region to whistler observation site is under sunlit. The favorable factors that facilitated the whistlers prior to the sunset are investigated in terms of source lightning characteristics, geomagnetic and background ionospheric medium conditions. The whistler activity period was found to be geomagnetically quiet. However, a significant suppression in ionospheric total electron content (TEC) compared to its quiet day average is found. This shows that background ionospheric conditions may play a key role in low latitude whistler propagation. This study reveals that whistlers can occur under sunlit hours at latitudes as low as L = 1.08 when the source lightning and ionospheric medium characteristics are optimally favorable.

Ionospheric hot spot at high latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schunk, R.W.; Sojka, J.J.

1982-01-01

A hot spot (or spots) can occur in the high-latitude ionosphere depending on the plasma convection pattern. The hot spot corresponds to a small magnetic local time-magnetic latitude region of elevated ion temperatures located near the dusk and/or dawn meridians. For asymmetric convection electric field patterns, with enhanced flow in either the dusk or dawn sector of the polar cap, a single hot spot should occur in association with the strong convection cell. However, on geomagnetically disturbed days, two strong convection cells can occur, and hence, two hot spots should exist. The hot spot should be detectable when the electric field in the strong convection cell exceeds about 40 mV m -1 . For electric fields of the order of 100 mV m -1 in the convection cell, the ion temperature in the hot spot is greatest at low altitudes, reaching 4000 0 K at 160 km, and decreases with altitude in the F-region. An ionospheric hot spot (or spots) can be expected at all seasons and for a wide range of solar cycle conditions

THE CONCEPT OF REFLEXIVE MANAGEMENT OF CONSUMER DEMAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryna Mavrina

2017-11-01

research, gives rise to the construction of a hypothesis. Practical implications and originality of the results obtained are the development of the concept of reflexive management of consumer demand, which will allow taking into account personal preferences of potential customers in the activity of a commercial enterprise. The concept envisages the use in the practice of targeted impacts on consumer information channels and promotes competitive advantage. The model of the process of consumer acceptance of the purchase decision is improved, taking into account the personal preferences of the target consumer. The model of the process of consumer acceptance of the purchase decision is improved. All this allows us to determine the key steps in the decision-making process by the consumer with the aim of developing a complex of reflexive influences.

Research in Brief: Shared Decision Making Enhances Instructional Leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindle, Joan Clark

1992-01-01

A study of three middle school principals about their instructional leadership activities before and after the establishment of shared decision making revealed an enhancement of leadership. The nature of the middle school teacher's role demands participative leadership and communication and decision making revolved around instructional issues.…

Development of a short-term model to predict natural gas demand, March 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lihn, M.L.

1989-03-01

Project management decisions for the Gas Research Institute (GRI) R and D program require an appreciation of the short-term outlook for gas consumption. This paper provides a detailed discussion of the methodology used to develop short-term models for the residential, commercial, industrial, and electric utility sectors. The relative success of the models in projecting gas demand, compared with actual gas demand, is reviewed for each major gas-consuming sector. The comparison of actual to projected gas demand has pointed out several problems with the model, and possible solutions to these problems are discussed

Glacier-influenced sedimentation on high-latitude continental margins

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dowdeswell, J. A; Cofaigh, C. Ó

2002-01-01

This book examines the process and patterns of glacier-influenced sedimentation on high-latitude continental margins and the geophysical and geological signatures of the resulting sediments and landform...

Low-latitude particle precipitation and associated local magnetic disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rassoul, H.K.; Rohrbaugh, R.P.; Tinsley, B.A.

1992-01-01

The time variations of optical emissions during low-latitude auroral events have been shown to correlate well with those of magnetograms in the region where the aurorae are observed. Two events not previously reported are analyzed and are shown to confirm the nature of the correlations found for two earlier events. The maximum optical emissions at mid-latitudes occur in concert with the maximum positive (northward) excursions in the H trace and with rapid fluctuations in the D trace of nearby magnetograms. The fluctuation in ΔD is usually from the east (positive) to the west (negative) in the vicinity of the ΔH perturbation. The positive excursions in H at low-latitude observatories at the time of the maximum optical emissions are associated with negative H excursions at high latitude observatories in the same longitude sector. The source of the particles has been inferred to be the ring current, with precipitation occurring when the |Dst| index is large at the time of the large short term excursions in the local magnetic field. This result is consistent with the funding of Voss and Smith (1979), derived from a series of rocket measurements of precipitating heavy particles, that the flux correlates better with the product of |Dst| and the exponential of K p than with either alone. In the present case it is shown that the product of |Dst| and the amplitude of the short term excursions in the horizontal component in local magnetograms has better time resolution and better correlation with the observed emission rates than the index using K p

Association between adolescent idiopathic scoliosis prevalence and age at menarche in different geographic latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihas Constantinos

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Age at menarche is considered a reliable prognostic factor for idiopathic scoliosis and varies in different geographic latitudes. Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis prevalence has also been reported to be different in various latitudes and demonstrates higher values in northern countries. A study on epidemiological reports from the literature was conducted to investigate a possible association between prevalence of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis and age at menarche among normal girls in various geographic latitudes. An attempt is also made to implicate a possible role of melatonin in the above association. Material-methods 20 peer-reviewed published papers reporting adolescent idiopathic scoliosis prevalence and 33 peer-reviewed papers reporting age at menarche in normal girls from most geographic areas of the northern hemisphere were retrieved from the literature. The geographic latitude of each centre where a particular study was originated was documented. The statistical analysis included regression of the adolescent idiopathic scoliosis prevalence and age at menarche by latitude. Results The regression of prevalence of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis and age at menarche by latitude is statistically significant (p Conclusion Late age at menarche is parallel with higher prevalence of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Pubarche appears later in girls that live in northern latitudes and thus prolongs the period of spine vulnerability while other pre-existing or aetiological factors are contributing to the development of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. A possible role of geography in the pathogenesis of idiopathic scoliosis is discussed, as it appears that latitude which differentiates the sunlight influences melatonin secretion and modifies age at menarche, which is associated to the prevalence of idiopathic scoliosis.

Arctic-Mid-Latitude Linkages in a Nonlinear Quasi-Geostrophic Atmospheric Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dörthe Handorf

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A quasi-geostrophic three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been applied to investigate the impact of Arctic amplification (increase in surface air temperatures and loss of Arctic sea ice during the last 15 years on the mid-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation. The model demonstrates a mid-latitude response to an Arctic diabatic heating anomaly. A clear shift towards a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO− during low sea-ice-cover conditions occurs, connected with weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the Atlantic and colder winters over Northern Eurasia. Compared to reanalysis data, there is no clear model response with respect to the Pacific Ocean and North America.

Statistical study of high-latitude plasma flow during magnetospheric substorms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Provan

2004-11-01

Full Text Available We have utilised the near-global imaging capabilities of the Northern Hemisphere SuperDARN radars, to perform a statistical superposed epoch analysis of high-latitude plasma flows during magnetospheric substorms. The study involved 67 substorms, identified using the IMAGE FUV space-borne auroral imager. A substorm co-ordinate system was developed, centred on the magnetic local time and magnetic latitude of substorm onset determined from the auroral images. The plasma flow vectors from all 67 intervals were combined, creating global statistical plasma flow patterns and backscatter occurrence statistics during the substorm growth and expansion phases. The commencement of the substorm growth phase was clearly observed in the radar data 18-20min before substorm onset, with an increase in the anti-sunward component of the plasma velocity flowing across dawn sector of the polar cap and a peak in the dawn-to-dusk transpolar voltage. Nightside backscatter moved to lower latitudes as the growth phase progressed. At substorm onset a flow suppression region was observed on the nightside, with fast flows surrounding the suppressed flow region. The dawn-to-dusk transpolar voltage increased from ~40kV just before substorm onset to ~75kV 12min after onset. The low-latitude return flow started to increase at substorm onset and continued to increase until 8min after onset. The velocity flowing across the polar-cap peaked 12-14min after onset. This increase in the flux of the polar cap and the excitation of large-scale plasma flow occurred even though the IMF Bz component was increasing (becoming less negative during most of this time. This study is the first to statistically prove that nightside reconnection creates magnetic flux and excites high-latitude plasma flow in a similar way to dayside reconnection and that dayside and nightside reconnection, are two separate time-dependent processes.

Decision or no decision: how do patient-physician interactions end and what matters?

Science.gov (United States)

Tai-Seale, Ming; Bramson, Rachel; Bao, Xiaoming

2007-03-01

A clearly stated clinical decision can induce a cognitive closure in patients and is an important investment in the end of patient-physician communications. Little is known about how often explicit decisions are made in primary care visits. To use an innovative videotape analysis approach to assess physicians' propensity to state decisions explicitly, and to examine the factors influencing decision patterns. We coded topics discussed in 395 videotapes of primary care visits, noting the number of instances and the length of discussions on each topic, and how discussions ended. A regression analysis tested the relationship between explicit decisions and visit factors such as the nature of topics under discussion, instances of discussion, the amount of time the patient spoke, and competing demands from other topics. About 77% of topics ended with explicit decisions. Patients spoke for an average of 58 seconds total per topic. Patients spoke more during topics that ended with an explicit decision, (67 seconds), compared with 36 seconds otherwise. The number of instances of a topic was associated with higher odds of having an explicit decision (OR = 1.73, p decisions. Although discussions often ended with explicit decisions, there were variations related to the content and dynamics of interactions. We recommend strengthening patients' voice and developing clinical tools, e.g., an "exit prescription," to improving decision making.

Demand planning approaches employed by clothing industry stakeholders in Gauteng, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ntombizodwa J. Matsoma

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: The decline in the productivity of the South African clothing industry was attributed to changing trends in the number of clothing production organisations, which together with a decline in manufacturing output and a fluctuation in employment had all contributed to complexities in demand planning. Purpose: This article investigates demand planning approaches in the clothing industry in Gauteng. Method: A descriptive study was conducted based on a structured questionnaire. Findings: The results revealed that both hierarchical and optimal approaches should be considered in clothing manufacturing. Managerial implications: In order to improve demand planning practices in the clothing industry, managers are recommended to apply hierarchical and optimal demand planning approaches, which might bring about improvements to demand planning in the Gauteng clothing industry. Conclusion: It is recommended that clothing manufacturers consider the types of product offering before making decisions about adopting the hierarchical or optimal demand planning approaches. When planning for basic clothes, manufacturers should consider a hierarchical demand planning approach, whereas the optimal demand planning approach is recommended for fashion clothes.

SuperDARN Hokkaido radar observation of westward flow enhancement in subauroral latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Kataoka

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Westward flow enhancement in subauroral latitudes is investigated based on the first one and a half year observation of the SuperDARN Hokkaido radar. A total of 15 events are identified with the criteria of westward flow speed of >1.0 km/s in magnetic latitude from 45 to 65 deg during geomagnetically disturbed period of Kp>3+ at 20 magnetic local time. It is found that especially during the storm recovery phase, the flow enhancement occurs in broad range of Dst amplitude, and the occurrence latitude depends on the amplitude of Dst. It is also found that the disturbed Kp condition is not sufficient for the appearance of the subauroral flow enhancement as seen by Hokkaido radar while storm-like Dst condition is necessary, supporting the idea that ring current particles play an essential role to enhance the westward flow in subauroral latitudes via magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling through the field-aligned current.

Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.

2015-01-01

This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

The north-south asymmetry of solar filaments separately at low and high latitudes in solar cycle 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kong De-Fang; Qu Zhi-Ning; Guo Qiao-Ling

2015-01-01

We present the results of a study on the north-south asymmetry of solar filaments at low (<50°) and high (>60°) latitudes using daily filament numbers from January 1998 to November 2008 (solar cycle 23). It is found that the northern hemisphere is dominant at low latitudes for cycle 23. However, a similar asymmetry does not occur for solar filaments at high latitudes. The present study indicates that the hemispheric asymmetry of solar filaments at high latitudes in a cycle appears to have little connection with that at low latitudes. Our results support that the observed magnetic fields at high latitudes include two components: one comes from the emergence of the magnetic fields from the solar interior and the other comes from the drift of the magnetic activity at low latitudes. (research papers)

Analytical performance, reference values and decision limits. A need to differentiate between reference intervals and decision limits and to define analytical quality specifications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Per Hyltoft; Jensen, Esther A; Brandslund, Ivan

2012-01-01

of the values of analytical components measured on reference samples from reference individuals. Decision limits are based on guidelines from national and international expert groups defining specific concentrations of certain components as limits for decision about diagnosis or well-defined specific actions....... Analytical quality specifications for reference intervals have been defined for bias since the 1990s, but in the recommendations specified in the clinical guidelines analytical quality specifications are only scarcely defined. The demands for negligible biases are, however, even more essential for decision...... limits, as the choice is no longer left to the clinician, but emerge directly from the concentration. Even a small bias will change the number of diseased individuals, so the demands for negligible biases are obvious. A view over the analytical quality as published gives a variable picture of bias...

Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

OpenAIRE

Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Makui, Ahmad; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar

2011-01-01

An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set...

Probabilistic prediction of aggregate traffic demand using uncertainty in individual flight predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-08-01

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic flow management (TFM) : decision-making is based primarily on a comparison of deterministic predictions of demand : and capacity at National Airspace System (NAS) elements such as airports, fixes and ...

Novel Solar Sail Mission Concepts for High-Latitude Earth and Lunar Observation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heiligers, M.J.; Parker, Jeffrey S.; Macdonald, Malcolm

2016-01-01

This paper proposes the use of solar sail periodic orbits in the Earth-Moon system for ob-servation of the high-latitudes of the Earth and Moon. At the Earth, the high-latitudes will be crucial in answering questions concerning global climate change, monitoring space weather events and ensuring

CO observations of southern high-latitude clouds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keto, E.R.; Myers, P.C.

1986-01-01

Results from a survey of 2.6 mm emission in the J = 1 to 0 transition of CO of clouds are reported for 15 high Galactic latitude clouds and three clouds located on the fringe of a large molecular cloud in the Chameleon dark cloud complex. The line widths, excitation temperatures, sizes, and n(CO)/N(H2) ratio of these clouds are similar to those seen in dark clouds. The densities, extinctions, and masses of the high-latitude clouds are one order of magnitude less than those found in dark clouds. For its size and velocity dispersion, the typical cloud has a mass of at least 10 times less than that needed to bind the cloud by self-gravity alone. External pressures are needed to maintain the typical cloud in equilibrium, and these values are consistent with several estimates of the intercloud pressure. 32 references

Joint Ordering and Pricing Decisions for New Repeat-Purchase Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Wu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies ordering and pricing problems for new repeat-purchase products. We incorporate the repeat-purchase rate and price effects into the Bass model to characterize the demand pattern. We consider two decision models: (1 two-stage decision model, in which the sales division chooses a price to maximize the gross profit and the purchasing division determines an optimal ordering decision to minimize the total cost under a given demand subsequently, and (2 joint decision model, in which the firm makes ordering and pricing decisions simultaneously to maximize the profit. We combine the generalized Bass model with dynamic lot sizing model to formulate the joint decision model. We apply both models to a specific imported food provided by an online fresh produce retailer in Central China, solve them by Gaussian Random-Walk and Wagner-Whitin based algorithms, and observe three results. First, joint pricing and ordering decisions bring more significant profits than making pricing and ordering decisions sequentially. Second, a great initiative in adoption significantly increases price premium and profit. Finally, the optimal price shows a U-shape (i.e., decreases first and increases later relationship and the profit increases gradually with the repeat-purchase rate when it is still not very high.

Mining residential water and electricity demand data in Southern California to inform demand management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Cominola, A.; Spang, E. S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Loge, F. J.; Lund, J. R.

2016-12-01

Demand side management strategies are key to meet future water and energy demands in urban contexts, promote water and energy efficiency in the residential sector, provide customized services and communications to consumers, and reduce utilities' costs. Smart metering technologies allow gathering high temporal and spatial resolution water and energy consumption data and support the development of data-driven models of consumers' behavior. Modelling and predicting resource consumption behavior is essential to inform demand management. Yet, analyzing big, smart metered, databases requires proper data mining and modelling techniques, in order to extract useful information supporting decision makers to spot end uses towards which water and energy efficiency or conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this study, we consider the following research questions: (i) how is it possible to extract representative consumers' personalities out of big smart metered water and energy data? (ii) are residential water and energy consumption profiles interconnected? (iii) Can we design customized water and energy demand management strategies based on the knowledge of water- energy demand profiles and other user-specific psychographic information? To address the above research questions, we contribute a data-driven approach to identify and model routines in water and energy consumers' behavior. We propose a novel customer segmentation procedure based on data-mining techniques. Our procedure consists of three steps: (i) extraction of typical water-energy consumption profiles for each household, (ii) profiles clustering based on their similarity, and (iii) evaluation of the influence of candidate explanatory variables on the identified clusters. The approach is tested onto a dataset of smart metered water and energy consumption data from over 1000 households in South California. Our methodology allows identifying heterogeneous groups of consumers from the studied sample, as well as

Market demands to Danish pork

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bredahl, Lone

2001-01-01

position on its markets. It is expected that results of the analysis will be part of superior strategic decisions for the Danish pork sector as regards future Danish pork export markets. The market demands to be identified will therefore be evaluated in relation to resources and competences within the line...... of business. The study takes its starting point in a value chain perspective. The value chain covers the product- and distribution stages a product passes through before reaching the consumers. The value chain perspective presumes that added value is accumulated when a product passes through the stages...

Letter to the Editor: Geomagnetic storm effects at low latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. G. Rastogi

Full Text Available The geomagnetic horizontal (H field from the chain of nine observatories in India are used to study the storm-time and disturbance daily variations. The peak decrease in storm-time variation in H showed significant enhancements at the equatorial electrojet stations over and above the normally expected decrease due to the ring current effects corrected for geomagnetic latitudes. The disturbance daily variation of H at equatorial stations showed a large decrease around midday hours over and above the usual dawn-maximum and dusk-minimum seen at any mid-latitude stations around the world. These slow and persistent additional decreases of H of disturbance daily variation at equatorial latitudes could be the effect of a westward electric field due to the Disturbance Ionospheric dynamo coupled with abnormally large electrical conductivities in the E region over the equator.Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents · Magnetospheric physics (electric fields; storms and substorms

Letter to the Editor: Geomagnetic storm effects at low latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. G. Rastogi

1999-03-01

Full Text Available The geomagnetic horizontal (H field from the chain of nine observatories in India are used to study the storm-time and disturbance daily variations. The peak decrease in storm-time variation in H showed significant enhancements at the equatorial electrojet stations over and above the normally expected decrease due to the ring current effects corrected for geomagnetic latitudes. The disturbance daily variation of H at equatorial stations showed a large decrease around midday hours over and above the usual dawn-maximum and dusk-minimum seen at any mid-latitude stations around the world. These slow and persistent additional decreases of H of disturbance daily variation at equatorial latitudes could be the effect of a westward electric field due to the Disturbance Ionospheric dynamo coupled with abnormally large electrical conductivities in the E region over the equator.Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents · Magnetospheric physics (electric fields; storms and substorms

High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Naveira Garabato, Alberto C; MacGilchrist, Graeme A; Brown, Peter J; Evans, D Gwyn; Meijers, Andrew J S; Zika, Jan D

2017-09-13

The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earth's climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the ocean's role in the climate system are offered.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Authors.

Task demands modulate decision and eye movement responses in the chimeric face test: examining the right hemisphere processing account

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason eCoronel

2014-03-01

Full Text Available A large and growing body of work, conducted in both brain-intact and brain-damaged populations, has used the free viewing chimeric face test as a measure of hemispheric dominance for the extraction of emotional information from faces. These studies generally show that normal right-handed individuals tend to perceive chimeric faces as more emotional if the emotional expression is presented on the half of the face to the viewer’s left (left hemiface. However, the mechanisms underlying this lateralized bias remain unclear. Here, we examine the extent to which this bias is driven by right hemisphere processing advantages versus default scanning biases in a unique way -- by changing task demands. In particular, we compare the original task with one in which right-hemisphere-biased processing cannot provide a decision advantage. Our behavioral and eye-movement data are inconsistent with the predictions of a default scanning bias account and support the idea that the left hemiface bias found in the chimeric face test is largely due to strategic use of right hemisphere processing mechanisms.

A linear allocation of spending-power system : consumer demand and portfolio model

OpenAIRE

Clements, Ken

2017-01-01

In the applied literature the household's consumption and portfolio decisions have tended to be viewed separately. This thesis is an initial attempt to remedy this. The household's demand for both commodities and assets, at a reasonably low level of aggregation, is integrated by using a tightly specified utility maximizing model. Utility is a function of both the flow of commodities consumed and the stock of assets held. The consumer demand literature is used as a starting point. The solutio...

[Latitude variation mechanism of leaf traits of Metasequoia glyptostroboides in eastern coastal China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Wei Hong; Wang, Hua; Yu, Mu Kui; Wu, Tong Gui; Han, You Zhi

2017-03-18

We analyzed the rules of Metasequoia glyptostroboides along with latitude, including leaf length, leaf width, leaf perimeter, leaf area, ratio of leaf length to width, specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf dry mass based on eight stands growing at different latitudes in the coastal area of eastern China, as well as their relationships with climatic and soil factors. The results showed that the leaf length, leaf width and leaf perimeter increased with increasing latitude, while the leaf area and SLA firstly increased and then decreased. The mean annual temperature and annual precipitation were the major environmental factors affecting the leaf traits along latitude gradient. With the increase of soil N content, the SLA decreased firstly and then increased, while the leaf mass decreased significantly. With the increase of soil P content, the SLA increased, and the leaf mass decreased significantly.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

2016-09-01

Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary

Dynamic Vehicle Scheduling for Working Service Network with Dual Demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bing Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to develop some models to aid in making decisions on the combined fleet size and vehicle assignment in working service network where the demands include two types (minimum demands and maximum demands, and vehicles themselves can act like a facility to provide services when they are stationary at one location. This type of problem is named as the dynamic working vehicle scheduling with dual demands (DWVS-DD and formulated as a mixed integer programming (MIP. Instead of a large integer program, the problem is decomposed into small local problems that are guided by preset control parameters. The approach for preset control parameters is given. By introducing them into the MIP formulation, the model is reformulated as a piecewise form. Further, a piecewise method by updating preset control parameters is proposed for solving the reformulated model. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method produces better solution within reasonable computing time.

Utility systems operation: Optimisation-based decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velasco-Garcia, Patricia; Varbanov, Petar Sabev; Arellano-Garcia, Harvey; Wozny, Guenter

2011-01-01

Utility systems provide heat and power to industrial sites. The importance of operating these systems in an optimal way has increased significantly due to the unstable and in the long term rising prices of fossil fuels as well as the need for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents an analysis of the problem for supporting operator decision making under conditions of variable steam demands from the production processes on an industrial site. An optimisation model has been developed, where besides for running the utility system, also the costs associated with starting-up the operating units have been modelled. The illustrative case study shows that accounting for the shut-downs and start-ups of utility operating units can bring significant cost savings. - Highlights: → Optimisation methodology for decision making on running utility systems. → Accounting for varying steam demands. → Optimal operating specifications when a demand change occurs. → Operating costs include start-up costs of boilers and other units. → Validated on a real-life case study. Up to 20% cost savings are possible.

The causes of international labor migrations--a demand-determined approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Straubhaar, T

1986-01-01

The author first studies the reasons why people migrate using a neoclassical approach concerning income differentials. He tests this approach empirically and demonstrates its limits. A demand-determination approach based on human capital theory is then outlined to overcome these limits and to take into account restrictive immigration controls. Migration from Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Turkey to the European Community destination countries is examined. It is concluded that "the demand for immigrants in the destination country is the decisive condition for the phenomenon of international labor migration, and the supply of migration-willing workers is only a necessary condition." excerpt

Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC.

Science.gov (United States)

Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S

2015-11-10

Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Dependence of the duration of geomagnetic polarity reversals on site latitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Clement, Bradford M

2004-04-08

An important constraint on the processes governing the geodynamo--the flow in the outer core responsible for generating Earth's magnetic field--is the duration of geomagnetic polarity reversals; that is, how long it takes for Earth's magnetic field to reverse. It is generally accepted that Earth's magnetic field strength drops to low levels during polarity reversals, and the field direction progresses through a 180 degrees change while the field is weak. The time it takes for this process to happen, however, remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from a few thousand up to 28,000 years. Here I present an analysis of the available sediment records of the four most recent polarity reversals. These records yield an average estimate of about 7,000 years for the time it takes for the directional change to occur. The variation about this mean duration is not random, but instead varies with site latitude, with shorter durations observed at low-latitude sites, and longer durations observed at mid- to high-latitude sites. Such variation of duration with site latitude is predicted by simple geometrical reversal models, in which non-dipole fields are allowed to persist while the axial dipole decays through zero and then builds in the opposite direction, and provides a constraint on numerical dynamo models.

Assessing the comparative productivity advantage of bioenergy feedstocks at different latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runge, Carlisle Ford; Sheehan, John J; Senauer, Benjamin; Foley, Jonathan; Gerber, James; Johnson, Justin Andrew; Polasky, Stephen; Runge, Carlisle Piehl

2012-01-01

We evaluate the comparative productivity of maize and sugarcane biofuel feedstocks as a function of latitude. Solar radiation for photosynthesis varies by latitude and contributes to differential productivity of tropical and temperate zones. We calculate comparative productivity in two ways—the amount of net sugar energy produced per unit area, and the amount produced per unit of net primary productivity (NPP). NPP measures the accumulation of energy in an ecosystem and can be used as a proxy for the capacity of an ecosystem to support biodiversity and a broader array of ecosystem services. On average sugarcane produces three times more energy per unit area than does maize. The comparative productivity advantage of sugarcane decreases with increases in latitude. Latitudes closer to the equator have higher NPP, so there is a greater trade-off between biofuel production and ecosystem productivity in the equatorial zones. The comparative productivity of sugarcane relative to maize is reduced when comparing biofuel energy per unit of NPP. Sugarcane is still twice as productive on average compared to maize in the amount of biofuel energy produced per unit of NPP. Regions near the equator have lower biofuel energy per unit NPP, making them less attractive for biofuels production. (letter)

A Danish Heat Atlas for Supply Strategies and Demand Side Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Bernd

The expansion of district heating, the assessment of the impact of heat supply strategies, as well as the analysis of significant heat demand savings require sound decision support at high detail. Data is needed to continuously quantify potentials and costs of measures in the end-use and supply...... heat demand and possible savings. The location of each building relative to heat supply technologies is mapped and used for the assessment of supply strategies by potentials, costs and environmental impact. Both elements can furthermore be used to balance investments in supply with investments...

Proposed UK high-latitude rocket campaign in late 1976/early 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, G.R.; Bryant, D.A.

1975-01-01

The second major UK high-latitude rocket campaign is scheduled for late 1976/early 19777 at Andoya. The proposed experiments provide a comprehensive set of measurements of high-latitude phenomena and include studies of the sources and acceleration of auroral particles, the stability of plasma flow, wave-particle interactions, and the response of the atmosphere and ionosphere to enhanced geomagnetic activity. These experiments require co-ordinated launching of high-latitude (740-950 km) and small, medium-altitude (320-370km) rockets. The provisional campaign plan includes four Skylark 12's (with Skylark 11 as a possible substitute), one Skylark 7 (with Skylark 6 as a possible substitute), and five Fulmars (with Skylark 10A as a possible substitute). Some of the experiments require simultaneous measurements by GEOS in the European sector (early 1977), but the remainder could be carried out in late 1976

Latitude SSTmax = 0 SSTmax = 10 SSTmax = 20

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

. −10. −5. 0. 5. 10. V (m/s). −30. −20. −10. 0. 10. 20. 30. −10. −5. 0. 5. 10. Latitude. V (m/s). V Non−linear model. Non−linear advection term. Pressure gradient term. SSTmax = 0. SSTmax = 10. SSTmax = 20.

A Nondominated Genetic Algorithm Procedure for Multiobjective Discrete Network Design under Demand Uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Changzhi, Bian

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the multiobjective discrete network design problem under demand uncertainty. The OD travel demands are supposed to be random variables with the given probability distribution. The problem is formulated as a bilevel stochastic optimization model where the decision maker’s objective is to minimize the construction cost, the expectation, and the standard deviation of total travel time simultaneously and the user’s route choice is described using user equilibrium model on the...

Ethical decision making in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, M D

1989-12-01

Contemporary nursing ethics education focuses on the use of an analytical model of ethical decision making for both its process and its content. Perhaps this is the case because it bears some resemblance to the nursing process, which is taught in a similar fashion. Thus, a deductivist method of ethical decision making fits within the same general schema of the hypotheticodeductive method of decision making that is taught for nursing diagnosis. Ethics requires that nurses respect persons, inform patients and secure their consent, not inflict harm, preserve the patient's quality of life, prevent harm and remove harmful conditions, do good for patients, and minimize risk to themselves. These are among the norms of obligation that guide ethical analysis and judgment in nursing practice and are the substance of the analytical model of ethical decision making. Nursing's ethics has established high ideals and strong demands for nurses. These are demands which nurses have met and ideals which have often been realized. Whatever the strength of our science, nursing is an inherently moral endeavor and is only as strong as its commitment to its ethical obligations and values. Between the grinding edges of the forces that affect it, nursing must establish its priorities among the aspects of its environment that it attempts to control. Ethics must be chief among those priorities.

Balancing needs. Global trends in uranium production and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolet, J.P.; Underhill, D.

1998-01-01

In many countries, uranium is a major energy resource, fueling nuclear power plants that collectively generate about 17% of the world's electricity. With global demand for energy especially electricity projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the price and availability of all energy sources, including uranium, are key components in the process of energy planning and decision-making. Particularly affecting the uranium market were changing projections about nuclear power's growth and the consequent demand for nuclear fuel; the emergence of a more integrated free market system including former centrally planned economies; and the emergence into the civilian market of uranium released from dismantled nuclear weapons. All these factors contributed to uncertainties in the commercial uranium market that raised questions about future fuel supplies for nuclear power plants. Signs today indicate that the situation is changing. The world uranium market is moving towards a more balanced relationship between supply and demand

Co-Planning of Demand Response and Distributed Generators in an Active Distribution Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Yu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The integration of renewables is fast-growing, in light of smart grid technology development. As a result, the uncertain nature of renewables and load demand poses significant technical challenges to distribution network (DN daily operation. To alleviate such issues, price-sensitive demand response and distributed generators can be coordinated to accommodate the renewable energy. However, the investment cost for demand response facilities, i.e., load control switch and advanced metering infrastructure, cannot be ignored, especially when the responsive demand is large. In this paper, an optimal coordinated investment for distributed generator and demand response facilities is proposed, based on a linearized, price-elastic demand response model. To hedge against the uncertainties of renewables and load demand, a two-stage robust investment scheme is proposed, where the investment decisions are optimized in the first stage, and the demand response participation with the coordination of distributed generators is adjusted in the second stage. Simulations on the modified IEEE 33-node and 123-node DN demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

A Growing Demand for Monitoring and Evaluation in Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Porter

2013-09-01

Full Text Available When decision-makers want to use evidence from monitoring and evaluation (M&E systems to assist them in making choices, there is a demand for M&E. When there is great capacity to supply M&E information, but low capacity to demand quality evidence, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. In this context, as Picciotto (2009 observed, ‘monitoring masquerades as evaluation’. This article applies this observation, using six case studies of African M&E systems, by asking: What evidence is there that African governments are developing stronger endogenous demand for evidence generated from M&E systems? The argument presented here is that demand for evidence is increasing, leading to further development of M&E systems, with monitoring being dominant. As part of this dominance there are attempts to align monitoring systems to emerging local demand, whilst donor demands are still important in several countries. There is also evidence of increasing demand through government-led evaluation systems in South Africa, Uganda and Benin. One of the main issues that this article notes is that the M&E systems are not yet conceptualised within a reform effort to introduce a comprehensive results-based orientation to the public services of these countries. Results concepts are not yet consistently applied throughout the M&E systems in the case countries. In addition, the results-based notions that are applied appear to be generating perverse incentives that reinforce upward compliance and contrôle to the detriment of more developmental uses of M&E evidence.

The factors associated to psychosocial stress among general practitioners in Lithuania. Cross-sectional study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanagas Giedrius

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There are number of studies showing that general practice is one of the most stressful workplace among health care workers. Since Baltic States regained independence in 1990, the reform of the health care system took place in which new role and more responsibilities were allocated to general practitioners' in Lithuania. This study aimed to explore the psychosocial stress level among Lithuanian general practitioner's and examine the relationship between psychosocial stress and work characteristics. Methods The cross-sectional study of 300 Lithuanian General practitioners. Psychosocial stress was investigated with a questionnaire based on the Reeder scale. Job demands were investigated with the R. Karasek scale. The analysis included descriptive statistics; interrelationship analysis between characteristics and multivariate logistic regression to estimate odds ratios for each of the independent variables in the model. Results Response rate 66% (N = 197. Our study highlighted highest prevalence of psychosocial stress among widowed, single and female general practitioners. Lowest prevalence of psychosocial stress was among males and older age general practitioners. Psychosocial stress occurs when job demands are high and job decision latitude is low (χ2 = 18,9; p Conclusion One half of respondents suffering from work related psychosocial stress. High psychological workload demands combined with low decision latitude has the greatest impact to stress caseness among GP's. High job demands, high patient load and young age of GP's can be assigned as significant predictors of psychosocial stress among GP's.

Demand-driven land evaluation; with case studies in Santa Catarina-Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bacic, I.L.Z.

2003-01-01

The main objective of this thesis is to improve use and usefulness of information for rural land use decisions based on an operational demand-driven approach for land evaluation with case studies in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. To achieve this objective, the following research questions were

Uranium 2003: resources, production and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. This edition, the 20., presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1 January 2003 based on official information received from 43 countries. Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand paints a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe and North America and for the first time, a report for Turkmenistan. Also included are international expert analyses and projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2020. The long lead times required to bring resources into production underscore the importance of making timely decisions to pursue production capability well in advance of any supply shortfall. (author)

Supply Chain Contracts with Multiple Retailers in a Fuzzy Demand Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengju Sang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates supply chain contracts with a supplier and multiple competing retailers in a fuzzy demand environment. The market demand is considered as a positive triangular fuzzy number. The models of centralized decision, return contract, and revenue-sharing contract are built by the method of fuzzy cut sets theory, and their optimal policies are also proposed. Finally, an example is given to illustrate and validate the models and conclusions. It is shown that the optimal total order quantity of the retailers fluctuates at the center of the fuzzy demand. With the rise of the number of retailers, the optimal order quantity and the fuzzy expected profit for each retailer will decrease, and the fuzzy expected profit for supplier will increase.

Heliographic latitude dependence of the IMF dominant polarity in 1972--1973 using Pioneer 10 data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenberg, R.L.

1975-01-01

The heliographic latitude dependence of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was studied by using Pioneer 10 data taken from March 1972 through June 1973 over Bartels solar rotation (SR) periods 1896--1913. The daily IMF sector polarities were plotted for each of these SR periods. Then the number of days of positive polarity (''away'' directed fields) per SR was plotted versus the average heliographic latitude. The dominant polarity behaved in accordance with the latitude effects found by Rosenberg and Coleman in 1969. The phase of the cycle has reversed from what it was prior to the sunspot maximum in 1968. The polarity is now predominantly positive at northern heliographic latitudes. (auth)

Seasonal variations of the high-latitude F region for

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sojka, J.J.; Schunk, R.W.; Raitt, W.J.

1982-01-01

We combined a plasma convection model with an inosphere-atmospheric composition model in order to study the seasonal variations of the high-latitude F region for strong convection. Our numerical study produced time-dependent, three-dimensional, ion density distributions for the ions NO + , O 2 + , N 2 + , O + , N + , and He + . We covered the high-latitude ionosphere above 42 0 N magnetic latitude and at altitudes between 160 and 800 km for a time period of one complete day. From our study we found the following: (1) For strong convection, the high-altitude ionosphere exhibits a significant UT variation both during winter and summer. (2) In general, the electron density is lower in winter than in summer. However, at certain universal times the electron density in the dayside polar cap is larger in winter than in summer owing to the effect of the mid-latitude 'winter anomaly' in combination with strong antisunward convection. (3) In both summer and winter, the major region of low electron density is associated with the main or mid-latitudde trough. The trough is deeper and its local time extend is much greater in winter than in summer. (4) Typically, the electron density exhibits a much larger variation with altitude in winter than in summer. (5) The ion composition and molecular/atomic ion transition altitude are highly UT dependent in both summer and winter. (6) The ion composition also displays a significant seasonal variation. However, at a given location the seasonal variation can be opposite at different universal times. (7) High-speed convection cells should display a marked seasonal variation, with a much larger concentration of molecular ions near the F region peak in summer than in winter

Development of the Supported Decision Making Inventory System.

Science.gov (United States)

Shogren, Karrie A; Wehmeyer, Michael L; Uyanik, Hatice; Heidrich, Megan

2017-12-01

Supported decision making has received increased attention as an alternative to guardianship and a means to enable people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to exercise their right to legal capacity. Assessments are needed that can used by people with disabilities and their systems of supports to identify and plan for needed supports to enable decision making. This article describes the steps taken to develop such an assessment tool, the Supported Decision Making Inventory System (SDMIS), and initial feedback received from self-advocates with intellectual disability. The three sections of the SDMIS (Supported Decision Making Personal Factors Inventory, Supported Decision Making Environmental Demands Inventory, and Decision Making Autonomy Inventory) are described and implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.

A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces ...

Variation in testosterone and corticosterone in amphibians and reptiles: relationships with latitude, elevation, and breeding season length.

Science.gov (United States)

Eikenaar, Cas; Husak, Jerry; Escallón, Camilo; Moore, Ignacio T

2012-11-01

Latitudinal variation in life-history traits has been the focus of numerous investigations, but underlying hormonal mechanisms have received much less attention. Steroid hormones play a central role in vertebrate reproduction and may be associated with life-history trade-offs. Consequently, circulating concentrations of these hormones vary tremendously across vertebrates, yet interspecific geographic variation in male hormone concentrations has been studied in detail only in birds. We here report on such variation in amphibians and reptiles, confirming patterns observed in birds. Using phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that in amphibians, but not in reptiles, testosterone and baseline corticosterone were positively related to latitude. Baseline corticosterone was negatively related to elevation in amphibians but not in reptiles. For both groups, testosterone concentrations were negatively related to breeding-season length. In addition, testosterone concentrations were positively correlated with baseline corticosterone in both groups. Our findings may best be explained by the hypothesis that shorter breeding seasons increase male-male competition, which may favor increased testosterone concentrations that modulate secondary sexual traits. Elevated energetic demands resulting from greater reproductive intensity may require higher baseline corticosterone. Thus, the positive relationship between testosterone and corticosterone in both groups suggests an energetic demand for testosterone-regulated behavior that is met with increased baseline glucocorticoid concentrations.

Correlation between 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and latitude in Brazilian postmenopausal women: from the Arzoxifene Generations Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Arantes, H P; Kulak, C A M; Fernandes, C E; Zerbini, C; Bandeira, F; Barbosa, I C; Brenol, J C T; Russo, L A; Borba, V C; Chiang, A Y; Bilezikian, J P; Lazaretti-Castro, M

2013-10-01

We investigated vitamin D status in Brazilian cities located at different latitudes. Insufficiency (sunlight at some latitudes. National data from a country that spans a wide range of latitudes would help to determine to what extent latitude or other factors are responsible for vitamin D deficiency. We investigated vitamin D status in cities located at different latitudes in Brazil, a large continental country. The source is the Brazilian database from the Generations Trial (1,933 osteopenic or osteoporotic postmenopausal women (60 to 85 years old) with 25(OH)D measurements). 25(OH)D below 25 nmol/L (10 ng/mL) was an exclusion criterion. Baseline values were between fall and winter. The sites included Recife, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre. Mean and standard deviation of 25(OH)D, age, spine and femoral neck T-score, calcium, creatinine, and alkaline phosphatase were calculated for each city. Pearson correlation was used for 25(OH)D and latitude. Insufficiency (cities near the equator, and this percentage progressively increases with more southern latitudes.

The Vertical-Tube Solar Collector: A Low-Cost Design Suitable for Temperate High-Latitude Locations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Juanicó

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A new low-cost solar collector based on thick (4.5′′ vertical tubes related to the previous design based on long 1.5′′ plastic hoses connected directly between water-grid supply and consumption is presented. This novel design could noticeably improve its performance for temperate locations mid and high latitudes, as was demonstrated by dynamic thermal modeling. This tool has been useful for understanding the particular characteristics of this kind of water-pond collector and besides, for noticeably improving its performance by optimizing its parameters, like tube diameter and number of glazing layers. By this way, the optimized design could fully satisfy the household demand up to midnight along the whole year for Buenos Aires (35°S and during summers (remaining as a useful preheater for the whole year for Ushuaia (55°S. Besides, its high simplicity makes it available for user’s own construction, costing down 50 dollars for a single-family unit.

Competitive closed-loop supply chain network design with price-dependent demands

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rezapour, Shabnam; Farahani, Reza Zanjirani; Fahimnia, Behnam

2015-01-01

Abstract This paper presents a bi-level model for the strategic reverse network design (upper level) and tactical/operational planning (lower level) of a closed-loop single-period supply chain operating in a competitive environment with price-dependent market demand. An existing supply chain (SC...... for the supply of new and remanufactured products. The performance behaviors of both SCs are evaluated with specific focus placed on investigating the impacts of the strategic facility location decisions of the new SC on the tactical/operational transport and inventory decisions of the overall network. The bi...

Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C

2011-01-01

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

Characteristics and sources of the electron density irregularities in the mid latitude E and Fregions

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-10

and has since been monitoring the occurrence of field-aligned irregularities ( FAIs ) in the northern middle latitudes. We investigated the...characteristics and occurrence climatology of the FAIs in the middle latitude E- and F-region ionosphere using the Daejeon VHF radar data. Depending on the...sunset and post-sunrise periods. The F-region FAIs in the mid-latitude are bounded to occur during the nighttime between local sunset and sunrise [J

Some ideas on the energy demand in the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frot, J.

2007-01-01

The author reviews different scenarios to quench the worldwide demand for energy. 4 scenarios have been studied for the 2000-2100 period. The scenarios differ on the importance given to concepts like: -) the behaviour towards future generations, -) the solidarity between rich and poor countries, -) the acknowledgement of the climate change, -) the risk of energy dearth, -) the improvement of energy efficiency, -) the necessity of gross national product growth, -) the public acceptance of nuclear power, and -) CO 2 sequestration. One of the scenarios is extremely courageous: politicians and population are aware of the great problems that are looming and take the right decisions quite early. This scenario leads to a demand of 18 Gtep/year in 2100. In the worst scenario people are reluctant to any change in their way to use energy, this scenario leads to a demand of 49 Gtep/year

The application of a selection of decision-making techniques by employees in a transport work environment in conjunction with their perceived decision-making success and practice

OpenAIRE

Theuns F.J. Oosthuizen

2014-01-01

A lack of optimum selection and application of decision-making techniques, in conjunction with suitable decision-making practice and perception of employees in a transport work environment demands attention to improve overall performance. Although multiple decision-making techniques exist, five prevalent techniques were considered in this article, namely the Kepner-Tregoe, Delphi, stepladder, nominal group and brainstorming techniques. A descriptive research design was followed, using an empi...

Comparison of a low and a middle latitude GPS-TEC in Africa during ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, we compared TEC values at Libreville (a low latitude station) with Sutherland (a middle latitude station) over Africa using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers during high solar activity (HSA), moderate solar activity (MSA) and low solar activity (LSA). Apart from our confirmation that high, moderate and low ...

The cycle of intellingence production as support organizacional decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ismael Cristofer Baierle

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Many authors claim that to cope with rapid changes in social and productive environments, and especially for responding quickly to customer demands and / or users in an organization, information is needed and its management. Decision-making processes also take into account only the past experiences, and this model no longer meets the precepts of today's corporate world, considering the speed with which the market and competition are in search of improvement. Centered on the concepts of Competitive Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence, this article aims to show the importance of information processing, focusing on the processes of decision making and provide a model for their organization and storage. The findings point to the use of intelligent systems, contributing to improved decision-making process and seeking to obtain answers with high quality standards relating to market demand.

Effect of geomagnetic storms on the daytime low-latitude thermospheric wave dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Karan, Deepak K.; Pallamraju, Duggirala

2018-05-01

The equatorial- and low-latitude thermospheric dynamics is affected by both equatorial electrodynamics and neutral wave dynamics, the relative variation of which is dependent on the prevalent background conditions, which in turn has a seasonal dependence. Depending on the ambient thermospheric conditions, varying effects of the geomagnetic disturbances on the equatorial- and low-latitude thermosphere are observed. To investigate the effect of these disturbances on the equatorial- and low-latitude neutral wave dynamics, daytime airglow emission intensities at OI 557.7 nm, OI 630.0 nm, and OI 777.4 nm are used. These emissions from over a large field-of-view (FOV∼1000) have been obtained using a high resolution slit spectrograph, MISE (Multiwavelength Imaging Spectrograph using Echelle grating), from a low-latitude location, Hyderabad (17.50N, 78.40E; 8.90N MLAT), in India. Variations of the dayglow emission intensities are investigated during three geomagnetic disturbance events that occurred in different seasons. It is seen that the neutral dayglow emission intensities at all the three wavelengths showed different type of variations with the disturbance storm time (Dst) index in different seasons. Even though the dayglow emission intensities over low-latitude regions are sensitive to the variation in the equatorial electric fields, during periods of geomagnetic disturbances, especially in solstices, these are dependent on thermospheric O/N2 values. This shows the dominance of neutral dynamics over electrodynamics in the low-latitude upper atmosphere during geomagnetic disturbances. Further, spectral analyses have been carried out to obtain the zonal scale sizes in the gravity wave regime and their diurnal distributions are compared for geomagnetic quiet and disturbed days. Broadly, the zonal scales seem to be breaking into various scale sizes on days of geomagnetic disturbances when compared to those on quiet days. This contrast in the diurnal distribution of the

The benefit of using additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data on water allocation decisions in irrigation districts

Science.gov (United States)

Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2017-04-01

Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.

Specialization of mutualistic interaction networks decreases toward tropical latitudes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schleuning, M.; Fründ, J.; Klein, A.-M.

2012-01-01

that current conditions have a stronger effect on biotic specialization than historical community stability. Biotic specialization decreased with increasing local and regional plant diversity. This suggests that high specialization of mutualistic interactions is a response of pollinators and seed dispersers......] or differences in plant diversity [10, 11]. Thus, the direction of the latitudinal specialization gradient remains contentious. With an unprecedented global data set, we investigated how biotic specialization between plants and animal pollinators or seed dispersers is associated with latitude, past...... and contemporary climate, and plant diversity. We show that in contrast to expectation, biotic specialization of mutualistic networks is significantly lower at tropical than at temperate latitudes. Specialization was more closely related to contemporary climate than to past climate stability, suggesting...

The impact of task demand on visual word recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J; Zevin, J

2014-07-11

The left occipitotemporal cortex has been found sensitive to the hierarchy of increasingly complex features in visually presented words, from individual letters to bigrams and morphemes. However, whether this sensitivity is a stable property of the brain regions engaged by word recognition is still unclear. To address the issue, the current study investigated whether different task demands modify this sensitivity. Participants viewed real English words and stimuli with hierarchical word-likeness while performing a lexical decision task (i.e., to decide whether each presented stimulus is a real word) and a symbol detection task. General linear model and independent component analysis indicated strong activation in the fronto-parietal and temporal regions during the two tasks. Furthermore, the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula showed significant interaction effects between task demand and stimulus type in the pseudoword condition. The occipitotemporal cortex showed strong main effects for task demand and stimulus type, but no sensitivity to the hierarchical word-likeness was found. These results suggest that different task demands on semantic, phonological and orthographic processes can influence the involvement of the relevant regions during visual word recognition. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding Money Demand in the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market Economy

OpenAIRE

Delatte, Anne-Laure; Fouquau, Julien; Holz, Carsten

2013-01-01

Fundamental changes in institutions during the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy present a formidable challenge to monetary policy decision makers. For the case of China, we examine the institutional changes in the monetary system during the process of transition and develop money demand functions that reflect these institutional changes. We consider seasonal unit roots and estimate long run, equilibrium money demand functions, explicitly taking into consideration the ch...

Temperature effects on future energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Shivakumar, Abhishek

2016-04-01

Climate change is projected to adversely impact different parts of the world to varying extents. Preliminary studies show that Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including changes to precipitation levels and temperatures. This work will analyse the effect of changes in temperature on critical systems such as energy supply and demand. Factors that determine energy demand include income, population, temperature (represented by cooling and heating degree days), and household structures. With many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to experience rapid growth in both income and population levels, this study aims to quantify the amplified effects of these factors - coupled with temperature changes - on energy demand. The temperature effects will be studied across a range of scenarios for each of the factors mentioned above, and identify which of the factors is likely to have the most significant impact on energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results of this study can help set priorities for decision-makers to enhance the climate resilience of critical infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa.

What is the impact of altitude on energy demand? A step towards developing specialized energy policy for mountainous areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katsoulakos, Nikolas M.; Kaliampakos, Dimitris C.

2014-01-01

Specific strategies for the energy sector should be a central part of a sustainable mountain policy. However, there is a lack of research on the energy issues of mountainous areas and specialized energy policy measures cannot be effectively supported. The determination of the energy demand in mountainous areas, which is an essential step in the direction of developing mountain energy policy, is analyzed in this paper. Greece has been selected as a case study. The results show that altitude is the decisive factor affecting degree-days and energy needs, within the geographical range of Greece. It is proved that the thermal, as well as the total energy demand are significantly increased in mountain settlements. The annual energy expenditure of a typical residence lying at an altitude of 1000 m proved to be 85% higher than the corresponding cost at sea level. This makes mountainous populations vulnerable to energy poverty. It is also proved that the subsidy policy for heating oil, in Greece, cannot alleviate energy poverty. The results of the present study can be utilized in the direction of re-designing the present policy and this is a completely necessary step for creating a sustainable policy for mountainous areas, in general. - Highlights: • The altitude’s influence on degree-days and energy needs in Greece was quantified. • Altitude affects heating degree-days 3.5 times more intensely than latitude in Greece. • A typical home has two times more thermal needs at 800 m than at sea-level in Greece. • The subsidy policy for heating oil is inadequate for Greek mountainous territories. • More than 85% of the households located over 800 m are energy poor in Greece

What State Supply and Demand Studies Tell Us about Special Education Personnel Needs. Practice Brief. Spring 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Muller, Eve

2011-01-01

Critical to any comprehensive plan for addressing personnel shortages in the field of special education is the gathering of data on supply and demand at the state and local education agency (LEA) levels. Many states now conduct regular supply and demand studies in order to inform decisions regarding the recruitment, preparation and retention of…

Enhanced antisunward convection and F region scintillations at mid-latitudes during storm onset

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, J.C.; Aarons, J.

1988-01-01

Millstone Hill radar observations over a wide span of latitudes detail the onset of 300 m/s antisunward (westward) convection at mid and low latitudes in the morning sector as a region of storm-enhanced sunward convection retreats poleward. Ring current observations reported by Lui et al. (1987) suggest that the magnetospheric shielding layer was coincident with the observed reversal between sunward and antisunward convection. A strong southward component of the F region neutral wind is observed at latitudes equatorward of the convection reversal. These observations are in agreement with the model of Spiro et al. (1988), who find that storm-enhanced neutrral winds at latitudes equatorward of the shielding layer can generate a long-lived perturbation electric field in the inner magnetosphere. The observations show the growth of the subauroral electric field as the shielding boundary moves poleward. They observe 136-MHz scintillations in both the auroral sunwarrd convection region and the region of subauroral antisunward convection when the convection electric fields exceed 5 mV/m

Clinical evaluation of wide-latitude HR-C film for chest radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Young Sung; Hwang, Nam Sun; Yeo, Young Bok; Lee, In Ja; Huh, Joon

1990-01-01

In application of wide latitude HR-C film to chest x-ray examination, former x-ray diagnosis area is larger and diagnostic information has great deal of promotion. HR-C film is compare to former x-ray film is larger latitude and density level is small, reading is very easily. Especially, high estimate that is in characteristic curve linearity of toe part is good, contrast of low density made good shape and not good describe to overlap is diagnostic information increase mediastinum portion etc

Pricing and lot sizing optimization in a two-echelon supply chain with a constrained Logit demand function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeison Díaz-Mateus

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Decision making in supply chains is influenced by demand variations, and hence sales, purchase orders and inventory levels are therefore concerned. This paper presents a non-linear optimization model for a two-echelon supply chain, for a unique product. In addition, the model includes the consumers’ maximum willingness to pay, taking socioeconomic differences into account. To do so, the constrained multinomial logit for discrete choices is used to estimate demand levels. Then, a metaheuristic approach based on particle swarm optimization is proposed to determine the optimal product sales price and inventory coordination variables. To validate the proposed model, a supply chain of a technological product was chosen and three scenarios are analyzed: discounts, demand segmentation and demand overestimation. Results are analyzed on the basis of profits, lotsizing and inventory turnover and market share. It can be concluded that the maximum willingness to pay must be taken into consideration, otherwise fictitious profits may mislead decision making, and although the market share would seem to improve, overall profits are not in fact necessarily better.

High quantitative job demands and low coworker support as risk factors for neck pain: Results of a prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ariëns, G.A.M.; Bongers, P.M.; Hoogendoorn, W.E.; Houtman, I.L.D.; Wal, G. van der; Mechelen, W. van

2001-01-01

Study Design. A 3-year prospective cohort study among 1334 workers was conducted. Objective. To determine whether the work-related psychosocial factors of quantitative job demands, conflicting job demands, skill discretion, decision authority, supervisor support, coworker support, and job security

LION: A dynamic computer model for the low-latitude ionosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Bittencourt

2007-11-01

Full Text Available A realistic fully time-dependent computer model, denominated LION (Low-latitude Ionospheric model, that simulates the dynamic behavior of the low-latitude ionosphere is presented. The time evolution and spatial distribution of the ionospheric particle densities and velocities are computed by numerically solving the time-dependent, coupled, nonlinear system of continuity and momentum equations for the ions O⁺, O₂⁺, NO⁺, N₂⁺ and N⁺, taking into account photoionization of the atmospheric species by the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation, chemical and ionic production and loss reactions, and plasma transport processes, including the ionospheric effects of thermospheric neutral winds, plasma diffusion and electromagnetic E×B plasma drifts. The Earth's magnetic field is represented by a tilted centered magnetic dipole. This set of coupled nonlinear equations is solved along a given magnetic field line in a Lagrangian frame of reference moving vertically, in the magnetic meridian plane, with the electromagnetic E×B plasma drift velocity. The spatial and time distribution of the thermospheric neutral wind velocities and the pattern of the electromagnetic drifts are taken as known quantities, given through specified analytical or empirical models. The model simulation results are presented in the form of computer-generated color maps and reproduce the typical ionization distribution and time evolution normally observed in the low-latitude ionosphere, including details of the equatorial Appleton anomaly dynamics. The specific effects on the ionosphere due to changes in the thermospheric neutral winds and the electromagnetic plasma drifts can be investigated using different wind and drift models, including the important longitudinal effects associated with magnetic declination dependence and latitudinal separation between geographic and

LION: A dynamic computer model for the low-latitude ionosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Bittencourt

2007-11-01

Full Text Available A realistic fully time-dependent computer model, denominated LION (Low-latitude Ionospheric model, that simulates the dynamic behavior of the low-latitude ionosphere is presented. The time evolution and spatial distribution of the ionospheric particle densities and velocities are computed by numerically solving the time-dependent, coupled, nonlinear system of continuity and momentum equations for the ions O+, O2+, NO+, N2+ and N+, taking into account photoionization of the atmospheric species by the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation, chemical and ionic production and loss reactions, and plasma transport processes, including the ionospheric effects of thermospheric neutral winds, plasma diffusion and electromagnetic E×B plasma drifts. The Earth's magnetic field is represented by a tilted centered magnetic dipole. This set of coupled nonlinear equations is solved along a given magnetic field line in a Lagrangian frame of reference moving vertically, in the magnetic meridian plane, with the electromagnetic E×B plasma drift velocity. The spatial and time distribution of the thermospheric neutral wind velocities and the pattern of the electromagnetic drifts are taken as known quantities, given through specified analytical or empirical models. The model simulation results are presented in the form of computer-generated color maps and reproduce the typical ionization distribution and time evolution normally observed in the low-latitude ionosphere, including details of the equatorial Appleton anomaly dynamics. The specific effects on the ionosphere due to changes in the thermospheric neutral winds and the electromagnetic plasma drifts can be investigated using different wind and drift models, including the important longitudinal effects associated with magnetic declination dependence and latitudinal separation between geographic and geomagnetic equators. The model runs in a normal personal computer (PC and generates color maps illustrating the

Titan's Stratospheric Condensibles at High Northern Latitudes During Northern Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, R.; Achterberg, R.

2012-01-01

The Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) instrument on board Voyager 1 caught the first glimpse of an unidentified particulate feature in Titan's stratosphere that spectrally peaks at 221 per centimeter. Until recently, this feature that we have termed 'the haystack,' has been seen persistently at high northern latitudes with the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument onboard Cassini, The strength of the haystack emission feature diminishes rapidly with season, becoming drastically reduced at high northern latitudes, as Titan transitions from northern winter into spring, In contrast to IRIS whose shortest wavenumber was 200 per centimeter, CIRS extends down to 10 per centimeter, thus revealing an entirely unexplored spectral region in which nitrile ices have numerous broad lattice vibration features, Unlike the haystack, which is only found at high northern latitudes during northern winter/early northern spring, this geometrically thin nitrile cloud pervades Titan's lower stratosphere, spectrally peaking at 160 per centimeter, and is almost global in extent spanning latitudes 85 N to 600 S, The inference of nitrile ices are consistent with the highly restricted altitude ranges over which these features are observed, and appear to be dominated by a mixture of HCN and HC3N, The narrow range in altitude over which the nitrile ices extend is unlike the haystack, whose vertical distribution is significantly broader, spanning roughly 70 kilometers in altitude in Titan's lower stratosphere, The nitrile clouds that CIRS observes are located in a dynamically stable region of Titan's atmosphere, whereas CH4 clouds, which ordinarily form in the troposphere, form in a more dynamically unstable region, where convective cloud systems tend to occur. In the unusual situation where Titan's tropopause cools significantly from the HASI 70.5K temperature minimum, CH4 should condense in Titan's lower stratosphere, just like the aforementioned nitrile clouds, although

How Strong is the Case for Proterozoic Low-Latitude Glaciation?

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, D. A.

2004-05-01

The most recent global compilations of paleomagnetic depositional latitudes for Proterozoic glaciogenic formations indicate a dominant mode near the paleo-equator (Evans 2000 AJS; Evans 2003 Tectonophysics). This result would therefore support either the snowball Earth or the large-obliquity hypotheses for Precambrian ice ages, but would reject the uniformitarian comparison to polar-temperate-restricted Phanerozoic glaciogenic deposits. The most reliable low-latitude results come from the Australian Marinoan succession, but a recent summary of these units has suggested that a glaciogenic origin is not yet demonstrated (Eyles and Januszczak 2004 Earth-Sci Reviews). It becomes useful, then, to review the global evidence for Proterozoic low-latitude glaciation. Eyles and Januszczak (ibid.) identified 13 Neoproterozoic deposits with "demonstrated" glacial influence. Among these, poor age constraints and lack of paleomagnetic data prohibit estimation of depositional paleolatitudes for the Fiq, Sturtian, Vreeland, Taoudeni, East Greenland, Port Askaig, and Zhengmuguan units. Moderate paleolatitudes are reasonably well supported for the South China, Gaskiers, Smalfjord, and Moelv units. Among the three remaining units, the Rapitan Group can be assigned a near-equatorial paleolatitude indirectly through use of the Galeros and Franklin-Natkusiak paleomagnetic results, as long as the Rapitan age lies within 750-720 Ma as generally expected. The Moonlight Valley Formation in northern Australia may be assigned a tropical paleolatitude according to high-quality paleomagnetic results from compellingly correlated Marinoan strata in southern Australia. Those strata, including the famous Elatina Formation, have yielded a robust paleomagnetic signature that is commonly interpreted to imply frigid climate (manifest in part by frost-wedge polygons) at near-equatorial latitudes. Concerns that the Neoproterozoic geomagnetic field was either nonaxial or nondipolar are valid in principle

Too easy? The influence of task demands conveyed tacitly on prospective memory

Science.gov (United States)

Lourenço, Joana S.; Hill, Johnathan H.; Maylor, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Previous research suggests that when intentions are encoded, participants establish an attention allocation policy based on their metacognitive beliefs about how demanding it will be to fulfill the prospective memory (PM) task. We investigated whether tacit PM demands can influence judgments about the cognitive effort required for success, and, as a result, affect ongoing task interference and PM performance. Participants performed a lexical decision task in which a PM task of responding to animal words was embedded. PM demands were tacitly manipulated by presenting participants with either typical or atypical animal exemplars at both instructions and practice (low vs. high tacit demands, respectively). Crucially, objective PM task demands were the same for all participants as PM targets were always atypical animals. Tacit demands affected participants’ attention allocation policies such that task interference was greater for the high than low demands condition. Also, PM performance was reduced in the low relative to the high demands condition. Participants in the low demands condition who succeeded to the first target showed a subsequent increase in task interference, suggesting adjustment to the higher than expected demands. This study demonstrates that tacit information regarding the PM task can affect ongoing task processing as well as harm PM performance when actual demands are higher than expected. Furthermore, in line with the proposal that attention allocation is a dynamic and flexible process, we found evidence that PM task experience can trigger changes in ongoing task interference. PMID:25983687

Intensity fluctuations of mid-latitude background VLF-noises and the interplanetary magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorshkov, Yu.N.; Klejmenova, N.G.

1986-01-01

Influence of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector structure polarity and also variations of solar wind velocity and density on the intensity of mid-latitude VLF background noises are studied. For analysis continuous observations of VLF radiations in Magadan Observatory (phi=53.7 deg, L=2.7) from November, 1972 to June, 1973 were used. It is shown that IMF sector sign has no sufficient effect on the level of mid-latitude VLF background noises at the frequences f < 4-5 kHz. In magnetoperturbed periods when IMF Bsub(z)-component was directed to the South and the Earth was in the region of high-speed plasma flux, in mid-latitudes abatement of intensity of VLF background noises was seen

Lidar measurements of mesospheric temperature inversion at a low latitude

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siva Kumar, V.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, P.B. [National MST Radar Facility, Tirupati (India); Krishnaiah, M. [Sri Venkateswara Univ., Tirupati (India). Dept. of Physics; Mizutani, K.; Aoki, T.; Yasui, M.; Itabe, T. [Communication Research Lab., Tokyo (Japan)

2001-08-01

The Rayleigh lidar data collected on 119 nights from March 1998 to February 2000 were used to study the statistical characteristics of the low latitude mesospheric temperature inversion observed over Gadanki (13.5 N, 79.2 E), India. The occurrence frequency of the inversion showed semiannual variation with maxima in the equinoxes and minima in the summer and winter, which was quite different from that reported for the mid-latitudes. The peak of the inversion layer was found to be confined to the height range of 73 to 79 km with the maximum occurrence centered around 76 km, with a weak seasonal dependence that fits well to an annual cycle with a maximum in June and a minimum in December. The magnitude of the temperature deviation associated with the inversion was found to be as high as 32 K, with the most probable value occurring at about 20 K. Its seasonal dependence seems to follow an annual cycle with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. The observed characteristics of the inversion layer are compared with that of the mid-latitudes and discussed in light of the current understanding of the source mechanisms. (orig.)

Characteristics of high-latitude precursor flows ahead of dipolarization fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jia-Zheng; Zhou, Xu-Zhi; Runov, Andrei; Angelopoulos, Vassilis; Liu, Jiang; Pan, Dong-Xiao; Zong, Qiu-Gang

2017-05-01

Dipolarization fronts (DFs), earthward propagating structures in the magnetotail current sheet characterized by sharp enhancements of northward magnetic field, are capable of converting electromagnetic energy into particle kinetic energy. The ions previously accelerated and reflected at the DFs can contribute to plasma flows ahead of the fronts, which have been identified as DF precursor flows in both the near-equatorial plasma sheet and far from it, near the plasma sheet boundary. Using observations from the THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) spacecraft, we show that the earthward particle and energy flux enhancements ahead of DFs are statistically larger farther away from the neutral sheet (at high latitudes) than in the near-equatorial region. High-latitude particle and energy fluxes on the DF dawnside are found to be significantly greater than those on the duskside, which is opposite to the dawn-dusk asymmetries previously found near the equatorial region. Using forward and backward tracing test-particle simulations, we then explain and reproduce the observed latitude-dependent characteristics of DF precursor flows, providing a better understanding of ion dynamics associated with dipolarization fronts.

The Social Demand for Education in Peru: Students' Choices and State Autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Post, David

1990-01-01

Asked 3,200 Peruvian graduating secondary students to explain their choice concerning whether to attend college. Reveals human capital theory's limited applicability, showing only wealthier urban boys used cost effectiveness in their decision. Relates the heterogeneity of higher education demand factors to inherent limits in Latin American…

Licensing Surrogate Decision-Makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosoff, Philip M

2017-06-01

As medical technology continues to improve, more people will live longer lives with multiple chronic illnesses with increasing cumulative debilitation, including cognitive dysfunction. Combined with the aging of society in most developed countries, an ever-growing number of patients will require surrogate decision-makers. While advance care planning by patients still capable of expressing their preferences about medical interventions and end-of-life care can improve the quality and accuracy of surrogate decisions, this is often not the case, not infrequently leading to demands for ineffective, inappropriate and prolonged interventions. In 1980 LaFollette called for the licensing of prospective parents, basing his argument on the harm they can do to vulnerable people (children). In this paper, I apply his arguments to surrogate decision-makers for cognitively incapacitated patients, rhetorically suggesting that we require potential surrogates to qualify for this position by demonstrating their ability to make reasonable and rational decisions for others. I employ this theoretical approach to argue that the loose criteria by which we authorize surrogates' generally unchallenged power should be reconsidered.

The demand for ambulatory mental health services from specialty providers.

Science.gov (United States)

Horgan, C M

1986-01-01

A two-part model is used to examine the demand for ambulatory mental health services in the specialty sector. In the first equation, the probability of having a mental health visit is estimated. In the second part of the model, variations in levels of use expressed in terms of visits and expenditures are examined in turn, with each of these equations conditional on positive utilization of mental health services. In the second part of the model, users are additionally grouped into those with and without out-of-pocket payment for services. This specification accounts for special characteristics regarding the utilization of ambulatory mental health services: (1) a large part of the population does not use these services; (2) of those who use services, the distribution of use is highly skewed; and (3) a large number of users have zero out-of-pocket expenditures. Cost-sharing does indeed matter in the demand for ambulatory mental health services from specialty providers; however, the decision to use mental health services is affected by the level of cost-sharing to a lesser degree than is the decision regarding the level of use of services. The results also show that price is only one of several important factors in determining the demand for services. The lack of significance of family income and of being female is notable. Evidence is presented for the existence of bandwagon effects. The importance of Medicaid in the probability of use equations is noted. PMID:3721874

Molecular substitution rate increases with latitude in butterflies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schär, Sämi; Vila, Roger; Petrović, Andjeljko

2017-01-01

of five lycaenid butterfly species with varied ecological adaptations, sampled across a latitudinal gradient in the Holarctic region. We found a positive correlation between latitude and substitution rate of mitochondrial DNA sequences in all species investigated. We propose that this result is the signal...

Strategy selection in cue-based decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryant, David J

2014-06-01

People can make use of a range of heuristic and rational, compensatory strategies to perform a multiple-cue judgment task. It has been proposed that people are sensitive to the amount of cognitive effort required to employ decision strategies. Experiment 1 employed a dual-task methodology to investigate whether participants' preference for heuristic versus compensatory decision strategies can be altered by increasing the cognitive demands of the task. As indicated by participants' decision times, a secondary task interfered more with the performance of a heuristic than compensatory decision strategy but did not affect the proportions of participants using either type of strategy. A stimulus set effect suggested that the conjunction of cue salience and cue validity might play a determining role in strategy selection. The results of Experiment 2 indicated that when a perceptually salient cue was also the most valid, the majority of participants preferred a single-cue heuristic strategy. Overall, the results contradict the view that heuristics are more likely to be adopted when a task is made more cognitively demanding. It is argued that people employ 2 learning processes during training, one an associative learning process in which cue-outcome associations are developed by sampling multiple cues, and another that involves the sequential examination of single cues to serve as a basis for a single-cue heuristic.

Alignment analysis of urban railways based on passenger travel demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex

2010-01-01

Planning of urban railways like Metro and especially Light Rail Transit often result in multiple alignment alternatives from where it can be difficult to select the best one. Travel demand is a good foundation for evaluating a railway alignment for its ability to attract passengers. Therefore...... and can be applied as decision support in different stages of the urban railway alignment planning....

An Intelligent Fleet Condition-Based Maintenance Decision Making Method Based on Multi-Agent

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Sun

2012-01-01

Full Text Available According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negotiation and independent negotiation is established, and the heuristic rules applied to global and local maintenance decision making is proposed. Based on Contract Net Protocol and the heuristic rules, the maintenance decision making algorithm is put forward. Finally, a fleet consisting of 10 aircrafts on a 3-wave continuous mission is illustrated to verify this method. Simulation results indicate that this method can improve the availability of the fleet, meet mission demands, rationalize the utilization of support resources and provide support for online maintenance decision making among a mission oriented fleet.

Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

Decision making as a window on cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Shadlen, Michael N; Kiani, Roozbeh

2013-10-30

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on information and values associated with the possible outcomes. The process operates in a flexible timeframe that is free from the immediacy of evidence acquisition and the real time demands of action itself. Thus, it involves deliberation, planning, and strategizing. This Perspective focuses on perceptual decision making in nonhuman primates and the discovery of neural mechanisms that support accuracy, speed, and confidence in a decision. We suggest that these mechanisms expose principles of cognitive function in general, and we speculate about the challenges and directions before the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Active Learning of Markov Decision Processes for System Verification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yingke; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2012-01-01

deterministic Markov decision processes from data by actively guiding the selection of input actions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed by learning system models of slot machines, and it is demonstrated that the proposed active learning procedure can significantly reduce the amount of data required...... demanding process, and this shortcoming has motivated the development of algorithms for automatically learning system models from observed system behaviors. Recently, algorithms have been proposed for learning Markov decision process representations of reactive systems based on alternating sequences...... of input/output observations. While alleviating the problem of manually constructing a system model, the collection/generation of observed system behaviors can also prove demanding. Consequently we seek to minimize the amount of data required. In this paper we propose an algorithm for learning...

Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

2018-02-01

Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

Contracting Fashion Products Supply Chains When Demand Is Dependent on Price and Sales Effort

OpenAIRE

Wei, Ying; Xiong, Liyang

2015-01-01

This paper investigates optimal decisions in a two-stage fashion product supply chain under two specified contracts: revenue-sharing contract and wholesale price contract, where demand is dependent on retailing price and sales effort level. Optimal decisions and related profits are analyzed and further compared among the cases where the effort investment fee is determined and undertaken either by the retailer or the manufacturer. Results reveal that if the retailer determines the effort inves...

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruth, Matthias; Lin, A.-C.

2006-01-01

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, Matthias [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)]. E-mail: mruth1@umd.edu; Lin, A.-C. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)

2006-11-15

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.

Can genetically based clines in plant defence explain greater herbivory at higher latitudes?

Science.gov (United States)

Anstett, Daniel N; Ahern, Jeffrey R; Glinos, Julia; Nawar, Nabanita; Salminen, Juha-Pekka; Johnson, Marc T J

2015-12-01

Greater plant defence is predicted to evolve at lower latitudes in response to increased herbivore pressure. However, recent studies question the generality of this pattern. In this study, we tested for genetically based latitudinal clines in resistance to herbivores and underlying defence traits of Oenothera biennis. We grew plants from 137 populations from across the entire native range of O. biennis. Populations from lower latitudes showed greater resistance to multiple specialist and generalist herbivores. These patterns were associated with an increase in total phenolics at lower latitudes. A significant proportion of the phenolics were driven by the concentrations of two major ellagitannins, which exhibited opposing latitudinal clines. Our analyses suggest that these findings are unlikely to be explained by local adaptation of herbivore populations or genetic variation in phenology. Rather greater herbivory at high latitudes can be explained by latitudinal clines in the evolution of plant defences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Low-latitude scintillation occurrences around the equatorial anomaly crest over Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Abadi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We investigated low-latitude ionospheric scintillation in Indonesia using two GPS receivers installed at Bandung (107.6° E, 6.9° S; magnetic latitude 17.5° S and Pontianak (109.3° E, 0.02° S; magnetic latitude 8.9° S. This study aimed to characterise climatological and directional ionospheric scintillation occurrences, which are useful not only for the physics of ionospheric irregularities but also for practical use in GNSS (global navigation satellite system-based navigation. We used the deployed instrument's amplitude scintillation (S4 index data from 2009, 2010, and 2011; the yearly SSN (sunspot-smoothed numbers were 3.1, 16.5, and 55.9, respectively. In summary, (1 scintillation occurrences in the post-sunset period (18:00–01:00 LT during equinox months (plasma bubble season at the two sites can be ascribed to the plasma bubble; (2 using directional analyses of the two sites, we found that the distribution of scintillation occurrences is generally concentrated between the two sites, indicating the average location of the EIA (equatorial ionisation anomaly crest; (3 scintillation occurrence enhancements for the two sites in field-aligned directions are herein reported for the first time by ground-based observation in a low-latitude region; (4 distribution of scintillation occurrences at Pontianak are concentrated in the southern sky, especially in the southwest direction, which is very likely associated with the plasma bubble tilted westward with increasing latitude; and (5 scintillation occurrence in the post-midnight period in the non-plasma-bubble season is the most intriguing variable occurring between the two sites (i.e. post-midnight scintillations are observed more at Bandung than Pontianak. Most of the post-midnight scintillations observed at Bandung are concentrated in the northern sky, with low elevation angles. This might be due to the amplitude of irregularities in certain directions, which may be effectively enhanced by

A low-latitude southern atlas of galactic hydrogen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poeppel, W G.L. [Instituto Argentino de Radioastronomia, Villa Elisa, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Olano, C A [Rio Grande do Sul, Universidade Federal, Porto Alegre, Brazil

1979-01-01

An atlas of 21 cm line profiles is described, which was made using a 30 m radio telescope with angular resolution of 0.5 deg, to study the properties of the low latitude H I gas excluding the complexity of the galactic plane. The results of the atlas itself are presented in two sets of diagrams: average profiles for each point, and contour maps. Analyses of the data have centered on an anomalous velocity cloud near galactic longitude (1) equals 349 deg, and latitude (b) equals plus 3 deg, strong kinematic asymmetries of the interstellar gas in the region of 1 between 348 and 12 deg and b between plus 3 and plus 17 deg, with positive radial velocities predominant, caused by a very intense source seemingly identical to Lindblad's (1967) feature A, and a comparative study of optical and radioastronomical data of the section of Gould's belt from 1 equals 300 to 12 deg.

Trapped waves on the mid-latitude β-plane

Science.gov (United States)

Paldor, Nathan; Sigalov, Andrey

2008-08-01

A new type of approximate solutions of the Linearized Shallow Water Equations (LSWE) on the mid-latitude β-plane, zonally propagating trapped waves with Airy-like latitude-dependent amplitude, is constructed in this work, for sufficiently small radius of deformation. In contrast to harmonic Poincare and Rossby waves, these newly found trapped waves vanish fast in the positive half-axis, and their zonal phase speed is larger than that of the corresponding harmonic waves for sufficiently large meridional domains. Our analysis implies that due to the smaller radius of deformation in the ocean compared with that in the atmosphere, the trapped waves are relevant to observations in the ocean whereas harmonic waves typify atmospheric observations. The increase in the zonal phase speed of trapped Rossby waves compared with that of harmonic ones is consistent with recent observations that showed that Sea Surface Height features propagated westwards faster than the phase speed of harmonic Rossby waves.

Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2016-12-01

Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zulkepli, Jafri; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

2015-01-01

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zulkepli, Jafri, E-mail: zhjafri@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia); Fong, Chan Hwa, E-mail: hfchan7623@yahoo.com [SWM Environment Sdn. Bhd.Level 17, Menara LGB, Taman Tun Dr. Ismail Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2015-12-11

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

Further evidence of close correspondence for alcohol demand decision making for hypothetical and incentivized rewards.

Science.gov (United States)

Amlung, Michael; MacKillop, James

2015-04-01

Alcohol purchase tasks (APTs) are increasingly being used to assess behavioral economic demand for alcohol. Prior studies utilizing APTs have typically assessed demand for hypothetical outcomes, making the extent to which these hypothetical measures reflect preferences when actual rewards are at stake an important empirical question. This study examined alcohol demand across hypothetical and incentivized APTs. Nineteen male heavy drinkers completed two APTs - one for hypothetical alcohol and another in which one randomly-selected outcome was provided. Participants were given an opportunity to consume the alcohol associated with their choice on the incentivized APT during a self-administration period in a simulated bar environment. Results indicated generally close correspondence between APT versions, though participants were more sensitive to increases in price and tended to consume more at low prices on the incentivized version. Estimated consumption on the incentivized APT was highly correlated with the amount of alcohol consumed in the laboratory (r=.87, pdecision-making when rewards are hypothetical vs. actually available. Implications for behavioral economic approaches to addictive behavior and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demand management of city gas per season and study of estimating proper size of LNG storage facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Y.H.; Kim, S.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1997-09-01

LNG storage facilities are indispensable to satisfy demand throughout the year by saturating the time difference of supply and demand that appears due to seasonal factors. The necessity of storage facilities is more important in a country like Korea where LNG is not produced at all and imports are relied upon. The problem of deciding how much storage facilities to keep and in what pattern to import LNG is a question to solve in order to minimize the costs related to the construction of LNG storage facilities while not causing any problem in the supply and demand of LNG. This study analyzes how the import of LNG and the consumption pattern of LNG for power generation affect the decision on the size of storage facilities. How the shipping control, and how LNG demand for power generation affect the decision of requirement of storage facilities, and why the possibility of shipping control should be investigated in the aspect of costs is investigated. As a result of this study, I presented necessary basic data for drafting a policy by assessing the minimum requirements of storage facilities needed for balancing the supply and demand with the various shipping control and LNG consumption patterns through simulation up to the year 2010. 10 refs., 33 figs., 66 tabs.

Nightside High Latitude Magnetic Impulse Events

Science.gov (United States)

Engebretson, M. J.; Connors, M. G.; Braun, D.; Posch, J. L.; Kaur, M.; Guillon, S.; Hartinger, M.; Kim, H.; Behlke, R.; Reiter, K.; Jackel, B. J.; Russell, C. T.

2017-12-01

High latitude Magnetic Impulse Events (MIEs), isolated pulses with periods 5-10 min, were first noted in ground-based magnetometer data near local noon, and are now understood to be signatures of transient pressure increases in the solar wind (sudden impulses - SIs) and/or in the ion foreshock (traveling convection vortex events - TCVs). However, solitary pulses with considerably larger amplitude (ΔB up to 1500 nT) have often been observed in the night sector at these same latitudes. These events are not directly associated with transient external pressure increases, and are often large enough to produce significant ground induced currents. Although many night sector MIEs occur in association with substorm signatures, others appear to be very isolated. We present here a survey of intense MIE events identified in magnetometer data from the AUTUMNX and MACCS arrays in eastern Arctic Canada at all local times between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2017. We also show maps of horizontal and vertical perturbations and maximum dB/dt values, as well as sample magnetograms, for several example events using data from these and other arrays in Arctic Canada, as well as in West Greenland and Antarctica, the latter to show the conjugate nature of these events. A basic relation to GIC data in the Hydro-Québec electrical transmission network in eastern Canada has been determined and will be discussed.

Simultaneous measurement of aurora-related, irregular magnetic pulsations at northern and southern high latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnoldy, R.L.; Rajashekar, R.; Cahill, L.J. Jr.; Engebretson, M.J.; Rosenberg, T.J.; Mende, S.B.

1987-01-01

A dominant feature of high-latitude magnetic pulsations is large-amplitude irregular pulsations (Pi) which are closely correlated with the movement of the observing station under particle precipitation, producing the dayside auroral and the high-latitude expansion of nightside aurora. The dayside Pi-1 pulsation maximum centered about local magnetic noon has no strong seasonal dependence, indicating that the dayside aurora illuminates both hemispheres independent of the latitude of the subsolar point. The summer noon pulsation maximum has, however, a greater longitudinal extent than the winter noon maximum, as measured at 74 degree-75 degree invariant latitude. The nightside magnetic pulsations are bursts of Pi (PiB) having an average duration of 15 min. From Defense Meteorological Satellite Program photos the auroral forms related to the high-latitude PiB can be identified as the poleward discrete arc generally having a large longitudinal extent. If the auroral forms are very similar in both hemispheres, then the large longitudinal extent coupled with movement of the auroral could explain why 85% of the PiB events have onsets within 10 min at opposite hemisphere sites (South Pole, Antarctica, and Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland) separated in local magnetic time by about 1.5 hours. There is no seasonal dependence in the statistical occurrence of PiB, nor in its simultaneity in opposite hemispheres. Apparently, the seasonal distortion of the tail plasma sheet has little effect on the acceleration of high-latitude auroral beams. The actual several minute time difference in opposite hemisphere onsets of PiB is probably due to the westward/poleward motion of the longitudinally extended aurora

An Empirical Analysis of Latitude of Price Acceptance in Consumer Package Goods.

OpenAIRE

Kalyanaram, Gurumurthy; Little, John D C

1994-01-01

Scanner panel data analyses for sweetened and unsweetened drink categories (with four brands in each) support the presence of a region of price insensitivity around a reference price. The analyses also suggest that consumers with higher average reference price have a wider latitude of price acceptance. Consumers with a higher frequency of purchase (i.e., shorter average interpurchase time interval) are found to have a narrower latitude of price acceptance, because they are more aware of the r...

Space Weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions

Science.gov (United States)

Honary, Farideh

2014-05-01

Efficient air traffic management depends on reliable communications between aircraft and the air traffic control centres at all times. At high latitudes, and especially on polar routing, VHF ground infrastructure does not exist and the aircraft have to rely on HF radio for communications. HF relies on reflections from the ionosphere to achieve long distance communications. Unfortunately the high latitude ionosphere is affected by space weather events. During such events HF radio communication can be severely disrupted and aircraft are forced to use longer low latitude routes with consequent increased flight time, fuel consumption and cost. This presentation describes a new research programme at the University of Lancaster in collaboration with the University of Leicester, Solar Metrics Ltd and Natural Resources Canada for the development of a nowcasting and forecasting HF communications tool designed for the particular needs of civilian airlines. This project funded by EPSRC will access a wide variety of solar and interplanetary measurements to derive a complete picture of space weather disturbances affecting radio absorption and reflection

Biomarkers of a Low-Latitude Neoproterozoic Glaciation

Science.gov (United States)

Olcott, A. N.; Sessions, A. L.; Corsetti, F. A.; Kaufman, A. J.

2005-12-01

Neoproterozoic low-latitude glaciations are often considered times of great biologic limitation because of the hypothesized presence of thick, global sea ice. Alternatively, climate models have suggested that tropical oceans could have remained ice-free, or covered by only thin sea ice, allowing life to continue unimpeded throughout the glaciations. The analysis of organic remains from synglacial sediments provides an approach to address the debate. Here we describe molecular, isotopic, and petrographic analyses of organic rich strata (up to 3.0 percent TOC) deposited in southeastern Brazil during Neoproterozoic low-latitude glaciation ca. 700 Ma. These strata contain extractable biomarkers, including 2-α-methyl hopanes, 2,3,6-trimethylarylisoprenoids, C29-C31 hopanes, and C27-C29 steranes. The preserved biomarkers reflect the presence of a complex and productive ecosystem comprised of both aerobic and anaerobic phototrophs, heterotrophs, and eukaryotes. The biomarker data indicate euxinia extending into the photic zone, providing evidence that the oceans were strongly stratified. Significantly, the occurrence of photosynthetic cyanobacteria and green sulfur bacteria at this time indicates that sea-ice cover at this location was thin to nonexistent, and is incompatible with models for snowball Earth that envision kilometers of ice thickness.

Deterministic and heuristic models of forecasting spare parts demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan S. Milojević

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Knowing the demand of spare parts is the basis for successful spare parts inventory management. Inventory management has two aspects. The first one is operational management: acting according to certain models and making decisions in specific situations which could not have been foreseen or have not been encompassed by models. The second aspect is optimization of the model parameters by means of inventory management. Supply items demand (asset demand is the expression of customers' needs in units in the desired time and it is one of the most important parameters in the inventory management. The basic task of the supply system is demand fulfillment. In practice, demand is expressed through requisition or request. Given the conditions in which inventory management is considered, demand can be: - deterministic or stochastic, - stationary or nonstationary, - continuous or discrete, - satisfied or unsatisfied. The application of the maintenance concept is determined by the technological level of development of the assets being maintained. For example, it is hard to imagine that the concept of self-maintenance can be applied to assets developed and put into use 50 or 60 years ago. Even less complex concepts cannot be applied to those vehicles that only have indicators of engine temperature - those that react only when the engine is overheated. This means that the maintenance concepts that can be applied are the traditional preventive maintenance and the corrective maintenance. In order to be applied in a real system, modeling and simulation methods require a completely regulated system and that is not the case with this spare parts supply system. Therefore, this method, which also enables the model development, cannot be applied. Deterministic models of forecasting are almost exclusively related to the concept of preventive maintenance. Maintenance procedures are planned in advance, in accordance with exploitation and time resources. Since the timing

Spectral classification of medium-scale high-latitude F region plasma density irregularities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, M.; Rodriguez, P.; Szuszczewicz, E.P.; Sachs Freeman Associates, Bowie, MD)

1985-01-01

The high-latitude ionosphere represents a highly structured plasma. Rodriguez and Szuszczewicz (1984) reported a wide range of plasma density irregularities (150 km to 75 m) at high latitudes near 200 km. They have shown that the small-scale irregularities (7.5 km to 75 m) populated the dayside oval more often than the other phenomenological regions. It was suggested that in the lower F region the chemical recombination is fast enough to remove small-scale irregularities before convection can transport them large distances, leaving structured particle precipitation as the dominant source term for irregularities. The present paper provides the results of spectral analyses of pulsed plasma probe data collected in situ aboard the STP/S3-4 satellite during the period March-September 1978. A quantitative description of irregularity spectra in the high-latitude lower F region plasma density is given. 22 references

Using GPS TEC measurements to probe ionospheric spatial spectra at mid-latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, E. H.; Parker, P. A.; Light, M. E.; Carrano, C. S.; Debchoudhury, S.; Haaser, R. A.

2017-12-01

The physics of how random ionospheric structure causes signal degradation is well understood as weak forward scattering through an effective diffraction grating created by plasma irregularities in the ionosphere. However, the spatial scale spectrum of those irregularities required for input into scintillation models and models of traveling ionospheric disturbances is poorly characterized, particularly at the kilometer to tens of kilometer scale lengths important for very-high-frequency (VHF) scintillation prediction. Furthermore, the majority of characterization studies have been performed in low-latitude or high-latitude regions where geomagnetic activity dominates the physical processes. At mid-latitudes, tropospheric and geomagnetic phenomena compete in disturbing the ionosphere, and it is not well understood how these multiple sources affect the drivers that influence the spatial spectrum. In this study, we are interested in mid-latitude electron density irregularities on the order of 10s of kilometers that would affect VHF signals. Data from the GPS networks Japan GEONET and the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO, UNAVCO) in the western United States were analyzed for this study. Japan GEONET is a dense network of GPS receivers (station spacing of tens of km), with fairly evenly spaced positions over all of Japan. The PBO, on the other hand, has several pockets of extremely dense coverage (station spacing within a few km), but is less dense on average. We analyze a day with a large solar storm (2015/03/17, St. Patrick's Day Storm) to allow high scintillation potential at mid-latitudes, a day with low geomagnetic activity and low thunderstorm activity (2016/01/31), and a day with low geomagnetic activity and high thunderstorm activity (2015/08/02). We then perform two-dimensional spatial analyses on the TEC data from these two networks on scale lengths of 20 to 200 km to infer the spatial scale spectra.

Simultaneous observations of Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes at two different latitudes in Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Nilsson

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Simultaneous observations of Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE at Wasa and Davis in Antarctica have been compared. Data with simultaneous observations were obtained for 16 days between 18 January and 5 February 2007. Wasa is at a higher geographic latitude than Davis, but at lower geomagnetic latitude. PMSE strength and occurrence frequency were significantly higher at Wasa. The variation of daily PMSE occurrence over the measurement period was in agreement with temperature and frost-point estimates from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura spacecraft for both Wasa and Davis. The diurnal variation of PMSE strength and occurrence frequency as well as the shape of the altitude profiles of average PMSE strength and occurrence frequency were similar for the two sites. The deepest part of the evening minimum in PMSE occurrence frequency occurred for the same magnetic local time at the two sites rather than for the same local solar time. The study indicates that PMSE strength and occurrence increase between 68.6° and 73° geographic latitude, consistent with observed differences in mesospheric temperatures and water vapor content. The average altitude distribution of PMSE varies relatively little with latitude in the same hemisphere.

Vendor-buyer ordering policy when demand is trapezoidal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Digeshkumar B. Shah

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A joint vendor-buyer strategy is analyzed which is beneficial to both the players in the supply chain. The demand is assumed to be trapezoidal. It is established numerically that the joint venture decreases the total cost of the supply chain when compared with the independent decision of the buyer. To entice the buyer to order more units, a permissible credit period is offered by the vendor to the buyer. A negotiation factor is incorporated to share the cost savings.

High-latitude plasma convection during Northward IMF as derived from in-situ magnetospheric Cluster EDI measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Förster

2008-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigate statistical, systematic variations of the high-latitude convection cell structure during northward IMF. Using 1-min-averages of Cluster/EDI electron drift observations above the Northern and Southern polar cap areas for six and a half years (February 2001 till July 2007, and mapping the spatially distributed measurements to a common reference plane at ionospheric level in a magnetic latitude/MLT grid, we obtained regular drift patterns according to the various IMF conditions. We focus on the particular conditions during northward IMF, where lobe cells at magnetic latitudes >80° with opposite (sunward convection over the central polar cap are a permanent feature in addition to the main convection cells at lower latitudes. They are due to reconnection processes at the magnetopause boundary poleward of the cusp regions. Mapped EDI data have a particular good coverage within the central part of the polar cap, so that these patterns and their dependence on various solar wind conditions are well verified in a statistical sense. On average, 4-cell convection pattern are shown as regular structures during periods of nearly northward IMF with the tendency of a small shift toward negative clock angles. The positions of these high-latitude convection foci are within 79° to 85° magnetic latitude and 09:00–15:00 MLT. The MLT positions are approximately symmetric ±2 h about 11:30 MLT, i.e. slightly offset from midday toward prenoon hours, while the maximum (minimum potential of the high-latitude cells is at higher magnetic latitudes near their maximum potential difference at ≈−10° to −15° clock angle for the North (South Hemisphere. With increasing clock angle distances from ≈IMFB_z+, a gradual transition occurs from the 4-cell pattern via a 3-cell to the common 2-cell convection pattern, in the course of which one of the medium-scale high-latitude dayside cells diminishes and disappears while the

Validity of the Dictionary of Occupational Titles for Assessing Upper Extremity Work Demands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Opsteegh, L.; Soer, R.; Reinders-Messelink, H.A.; Reneman, M.F.; van der Sluis, C.K.

2010-01-01

Objectives: The Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) is used in vocational rehabilitation to guide decisions about the ability of a person with activity limitations to perform activities at work. The DOT has categorized physical work demands in five categories. The validity of this categorization

Mid-Latitude versus Polar-Latitude Transitional Impact Craters: Geometric Properties from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Observations and Viking Images

Science.gov (United States)

Matias, A.; Garvin, J. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.

1998-01-01

One intriguing aspect of martian impact crater morphology is the change of crater cavity and ejecta characteristics from the mid-latitudes to the polar regions. This is thought to reflect differences in target properties such as an increasing presence of ice in the polar regions. Previous image-based efforts concerning martian crater morphology has documented some aspects of this, but has been hampered by the lack of adequate topography data. Recent Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) topographic profiles provide a quantitative perspective for interpreting the detailed morphologies of martian crater cavities and ejecta morphology. This study is a preliminary effort to quantify the latitude-dependent differences in morphology with the goal of identifying target-dependent and crater modification effects from the combined of images and MOLA topography. We combine the available MOLA profiles and the corresponding Viking Mars Digital Image Mosaics (MDIMS), and high resolution Viking Orbiter images to focus on two transitional craters; one on the mid-latitudes, and one in the North Polar region. One MOLA pass (MGS Orbit 34) traverses the center of a 15.9 km diameter fresh complex crater located at 12.8degN 83.8degE on the Hesperian ridge plains unit (Hvr). Viking images, as well as MOLA data, show that this crater has well developed wall terraces and a central peak with 429 m of relative relief. Three MOLA passes have been acquired for a second impact crater, which is located at 69.5degN 41degE on the Vastitas Borealis Formation. This fresh rampart crater lacks terraces and central peak structures and it has a depth af 579 m. Correlation between images and MOLA topographic profiles allows us to construct basic facies maps of the craters. Eight main units were identified, four of which are common on both craters.

Changes in psychosocial work factors in the French working population between 2006 and 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Malard, Lucile; Chastang, Jean-François; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2015-02-01

The aim of the study was to assess the changes in psychosocial work factors in the French working population between 2006 and 2010 and to examine potential differential changes according to age, occupation, public/private sector, work contract and self-employed/employee status. The study sample included 5,600 workers followed up from 2006 to 2010 from the national representative Santé et Itinéraire Professionnel (SIP) survey. Psychosocial work factors included decision latitude, psychological demands, social support, reward, overcommitment, long working hours, predictability, night- and shift work, emotional demands, role conflict, ethical conflict, tensions with the public, job insecurity and work-life imbalance, and were measured using scores. Linear regressions were used to analyse the change in the scores of these factors adjusted for age and initial score. All analyses were stratified by gender. Psychosocial work factors worsened between 2006 and 2010: decision latitude, social support, reward, role conflict and work-life imbalance for both genders, and psychological demands, emotional demands, ethical conflict and tensions with the public for women. Differential changes according to age, occupation, public/private sector, work contract and self-employed/employee status were observed suggesting that some groups may be more likely to be exposed to negative changes especially the younger, low- and high-skilled and public sector workers. Monitoring exposure to psychosocial work factors over time may be crucial, and prevention policies should take into account that deterioration of psychosocial work factors may be sharper among subgroups such as younger, low- and high-skilled and public sector workers.

Inverse Optimization and Forecasting Techniques Applied to Decision-making in Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saez Gallego, Javier

patterns that the load traditionally exhibited. On the other hand, this thesis is motivated by the decision-making processes of market players. In response to these challenges, this thesis provides mathematical models for decision-making under uncertainty in electricity markets. Demand-side bidding refers......This thesis deals with the development of new mathematical models that support the decision-making processes of market players. It addresses the problems of demand-side bidding, price-responsive load forecasting and reserve determination. From a methodological point of view, we investigate a novel...... approach to model the response of aggregate price-responsive load as a constrained optimization model, whose parameters are estimated from data by using inverse optimization techniques. The problems tackled in this dissertation are motivated, on one hand, by the increasing penetration of renewable energy...

Scotland's forgotten carbon: a national assessment of mid-latitude fjord sedimentary carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Smeaton, Craig; Austin, William E. N.; Davies, Althea L.; Baltzer, Agnes; Howe, John A.; Baxter, John M.

2017-12-01

Fjords are recognised as hotspots for the burial and long-term storage of carbon (C) and potentially provide a significant climate regulation service over multiple timescales. Understanding the magnitude of marine sedimentary C stores and the processes which govern their development is fundamental to understanding the role of the coastal ocean in the global C cycle. In this study, we use the mid-latitude fjords of Scotland as a natural laboratory to further develop methods to quantify these marine sedimentary C stores on both the individual fjord and national scale. Targeted geophysical and geochemical analysis has allowed the quantification of sedimentary C stocks for a number of mid-latitude fjords and, coupled with upscaling techniques based on fjord classification, has generated the first full national sedimentary C inventory for a fjordic system. The sediments within these mid-latitude fjords hold 640.7 ± 46 Mt of C split between 295.6 ± 52 and 345.1 ± 39 Mt of organic and inorganic C, respectively. When compared, these marine mid-latitude sedimentary C stores are of similar magnitude to their terrestrial equivalents, with the exception of the Scottish peatlands, which hold significantly more C. However, when area-normalised comparisons are made, these mid-latitude fjords are significantly more effective as C stores than their terrestrial counterparts, including Scottish peatlands. The C held within Scotland's coastal marine sediments has been largely overlooked as a significant component of the nation's natural capital; such coastal C stores are likely to be key to understanding and constraining improved global C budgets.

The climatology of low-latitude ionospheric densities and zonal drifts from IMAGE-FUV.

Science.gov (United States)

Immel, T. J.; Sagawa, E.; Frey, H. U.; Mende, S. B.; Patel, J.

2004-12-01

The IMAGE satellite was the first dedicated to magnetospheric imaging, but has also provided numerous images of the nightside ionosphere with its Far-Ultraviolet (FUV) spectrographic imager. Nightside emissions of O I at 135.6-nm originating away from the aurora are due to recombination of ionospheric O+, and vary in intensity with (O+)2. IMAGE-FUV, operating in a highly elliptical orbit with apogee at middle latitudes and >7 Re altitude, measures this emission globally with 100-km resolution. During each 14.5 hour orbit, IMAGE-FUV is able to monitor nightside ionospheric densities for up to 6-7 hours. Hundreds of low-latitude ionospheric bubbles, their development and drift speed, and a variety of other dynamical variations in brightness and morphology of the equatorial anomalies have been observed during this mission. Furthermore, the average global distribution of low-latitude ionospheric plasma densities can be determined in 3 days. Imaging data collected from February through June of 2002 are used to compile a dataset containing a variety of parameters (e.g., latitude and brightness of peak plasma density, zonal bubble drift speed) which can be drawn from for climatological studies. Recent results indicate that the average ground speed of low-latitude zonal plasma drifts vary with longitude by up to 50%, and that a periodic variation in ionospheric densities with longitude suggests the influence of a lower-thermospheric non-migrating tide with wave number = 4 on ionospheric densities. An excellent correlation between zonal drift speed and the magnetic storm index Dst is also found.

Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, Peter M J; Affek, Hagit P; Ivany, Linda C; Houben, Alexander J P; Sijp, Willem P; Sluijs, Appy; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark

2014-05-06

Paleoclimate studies suggest that increased global warmth during the Eocene epoch was greatly amplified at high latitudes, a state that climate models cannot fully reproduce. However, proxy estimates of Eocene near-Antarctic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have produced widely divergent results at similar latitudes, with SSTs above 20 °C in the southwest Pacific contrasting with SSTs between 5 and 15 °C in the South Atlantic. Validation of this zonal temperature difference has been impeded by uncertainties inherent to the individual paleotemperature proxies applied at these sites. Here, we present multiproxy data from Seymour Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, that provides well-constrained evidence for annual SSTs of 10-17 °C (1σ SD) during the middle and late Eocene. Comparison of the same paleotemperature proxy at Seymour Island and at the East Tasman Plateau indicate the presence of a large and consistent middle-to-late Eocene SST gradient of ∼7 °C between these two sites located at similar paleolatitudes. Intermediate-complexity climate model simulations suggest that enhanced oceanic heat transport in the South Pacific, driven by deep-water formation in the Ross Sea, was largely responsible for the observed SST gradient. These results indicate that very warm SSTs, in excess of 18 °C, did not extend uniformly across the Eocene southern high latitudes, and suggest that thermohaline circulation may partially control the distribution of high-latitude ocean temperatures in greenhouse climates. The pronounced zonal SST heterogeneity evident in the Eocene cautions against inferring past meridional temperature gradients using spatially limited data within given latitudinal bands.

Demand Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio Parrinello

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate demand. It suggests a notion of normal capacity utilization as a range of distributions of normal utilization, related to the cost minimizing choice of techniques and to the persistence of the long term expectations of normal prices underlying the investment decisions. In such a context a long-period analysis with normal prices should avoid a dual steady growth where constant relative prices of capital goods correspond to constant proportions among the stocks of fixed capital.

Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

2007-01-01

In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey carried out among 500 households in Harare in 2003. Using a multi-stage budgeting approach, the model estimates the share of energy in total household expenditure and the shares of firewood, electricity and kerosene in total energy expenditure. Using the model results simulations show that the main policy handles to reduce the demand for firewood and to mitigate environmental degradation such as deforestation include decreasing prices of alternative fuels, notably kerosene. Moreover, in the long run sound economic policy will positively impact on the energy budget whereas education and the degree of electrification will contribute to a reduction of the use of firewood

Lidar measurements of mesospheric temperature inversion at a low latitude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Siva Kumar

2001-08-01

Full Text Available The Rayleigh lidar data collected on 119 nights from March 1998 to February 2000 were used to study the statistical characteristics of the low latitude mesospheric temperature inversion observed over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, India. The occurrence frequency of the inversion showed semiannual variation with maxima in the equinoxes and minima in the summer and winter, which was quite different from that reported for the mid-latitudes. The peak of the inversion layer was found to be confined to the height range of 73 to 79 km with the maximum occurrence centered around 76 km, with a weak seasonal dependence that fits well to an annual cycle with a maximum in June and a minimum in December. The magnitude of the temperature deviation associated with the inversion was found to be as high as 32 K, with the most probable value occurring at about 20 K. Its seasonal dependence seems to follow an annual cycle with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. The observed characteristics of the inversion layer are compared with that of the mid-latitudes and discussed in light of the current understanding of the source mechanisms.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (pressure, density and temperature. Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology

Seasonal dependence of high-latitude electric fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

de la Beaujardiere, O.; Leger, C.; Alcayde, D.; Fontanari, J.

1991-01-01

The seasonal dependence of the high-latitude electric field was investigated using Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar data. Average ExB drifts were derived from 5 years of measurements centered around solar minimum. The electrostatic potentials that best fit the observed average electric field were calculated. It was found that the large-scale convection pattern significantly changes with season. This change involves the overall shape of the convection pattern, as well as the electric field intensity, and thus the total dawn-dusk potential across the polar cap. The cross polar cap potential drop is largest in fall, followed by winter, spring and summer. The small difference found between the summer and winter cross polar cap potential can be attributed to differing field-aligned potential drops. In view of the well-known relationship between field-aligned currents and parallel potential drop, this is consistent with the observations that Birkeland currents are larger in the summer than in winter. Changes in the overall shape of the convection pattern are consistent with the simple notion that the whole pattern is shifted toward the nightside as well as, to a lesser extent, toward the dawnside in summer as compared to winter. This assumption is based on the following observed effects: (1) The rotation of the overall convection pattern toward earlier local times with respect to the noon-midnight direction is maximum for summer on the dayside. (2) On the nightside, the Harang discontinuity is typically located within the radar field of view (Λ=67 to 82) in the winter averaged patterns, but it is equatorward of the field of view in summer. (3) The line that joins the dawn and dusk potential maxima is shifted toward the midnight sector in summer as compared to winter by about 5 degree. (4) In the dawn cell, the latitude of the convection reversal is the lowest during summer; in the dusk cell the latitude of the reversal is the lowest during winter

Investigating risk and robustness measures for supply chain network design under demand uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Govindan, Kannan; Fattahi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

to obtain risk-averse and robust solutions, respectively. Computational results are presented on a real-life case study to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approaches. To compare these different decision-making situations, a simulation approach is used. Furthermore, by several test problems......-variable demands. To deal with the stochastic demands, a Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate a fan of scenarios and then, a backward scenario reduction technique reduces the number of scenarios. Weighted mean-risk objectives by using different risk measures and minimax objective are examined...

Hook whistlers observed at low latitude ground station Varanasi

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khosa, P.N.; Lalmani; Ahmed, M.M.; Singh, B.D.

1983-01-01

Employing the Haselgrove ray tracing equations and a diffusive equilibrium model of the ionosphere, the propagation characteristics of hook whistlers recorded at low-latitude ground station Varanasi (geomag. lat., 16 0 6'N) are discussed. It is shown that the two traces of the hook whistlers are caused by the VLF waves radiated from the return stroke of a lightning discharge which after penetrating the ionosphere at two different entry points, propagated to the opposite hemisphere in the whistler mode and were received at 16 geomagnetic latitude. Further the crossing of ray paths for the same frequency leads to the explanation of the hook whistler. The lower and higher cut-off frequencies are explained in terms of their deviating away from the bunch of the recorded whistler waves and crossing of ray paths for the same frequency. (Auth.)

High latitude ionospheric structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-06-01

The Earth's ionosphere is an important element in solar-terrestrial energy transfer processes. As a major terrestrial sink for many solar and magnetospheric events, the ionosphere has characteristic features that are traced to such seemingly remote phenomena as solar flares, radiation belt wave-particle interactions and magnetospheric substorms. In considering the multiple of solar-terrestrial plasma interactions, it is important to recognize that the high-latitude ionosphere is not altogether a simple receptor of various energy deposition processes. The high-altitude ionosphere plays an active feedback role by controlling the conductivity at the base of far-reaching magnetic field lines and by providing a plasma source for the magnetosphere. Indeed, the role of the ionosphere during magnetospheric substorms is emerging as a topic for meaningful study in the overall picture of magnetospheric-ionospheric coupling

Willingness-to-pay for steelhead trout fishing: Implications of two-step consumer decisions with short-run endowments

Science.gov (United States)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2010-09-01

Choice of the appropriate model of economic behavior is important for the measurement of nonmarket demand and benefits. Several travel cost demand model specifications are currently in use. Uncertainty exists over the efficacy of these approaches, and more theoretical and empirical study is warranted. Thus travel cost models with differing assumptions about labor markets and consumer behavior were applied to estimate the demand for steelhead trout sportfishing on an unimpounded reach of the Snake River near Lewiston, Idaho. We introduce a modified two-step decision model that incorporates endogenous time value using a latent index variable approach. The focus is on the importance of distinguishing between short-run and long-run consumer decision variables in a consistent manner. A modified Barnett two-step decision model was found superior to other models tested.

Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C.

2011-01-01

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and - 0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020. -- Research Highlights: → Estimated output and price elasticities of 0.15 and -0.16 respectively. → Estimated upward sloping UEDT (i.e. energy using) but at a decreasing rate. → Predicted Turkish industrial electricity demand between 97 and 148 TWh in 2020.

Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F.; Dunn, Robert Roberdeau

2017-01-01

Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature...

Scrutinizing individuals’ leisure-shopping travel decisions to appraise activity-based models of travel demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Kusamastuti (Diana); E. Hannes (Els); D. Janssens (Davy); G. Wets (Geert); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict)

2010-01-01

textabstractActivity-based models for modeling individuals’ travel demand have come to a new era in addressing individuals’ and households’ travel behavior on a disaggregate level. Quantitative data are mainly used in this domain to enable a realistic representation of individual choices and a true

Health Cost Risk and Optimal Retirement Provision : A Simple Rule for Annuity Demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peijnenburg, J.M.J.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

We analyze the effect of health cost risk on optimal annuity demand and consumption/savings decisions. Many retirees are exposed to sizeable out-of-pocket medical expenses, while annuities potentially impair the ability to get liquidity to cover these costs and smooth consumption. We find that if

Observations of the interplanetary sector structure up to heliographic latitudes of 160: Pioneer 11

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, E.J.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Rosenberg, R.L.

1978-01-01

A study of the interplanetary sector structure at heliographic latitudes up to 16 0 N is reported. The study is based on magnetic field measurements made on board Pioneer 11 as the spacecraft traveled along the post-Jupiter-encounter trajectory. Preliminary measurements are used to determine the dominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field during 43 successive solar rotations including Pioneer's ascent to its maximum latitude and motion inward from 5 to 3.7 AU. As the latitude of Pioneer increased, the dominant polarity became continually more positive, corresponding to an outward-directed solar interplanetary field. When the spacecraft reached the highest latitude, the usual sector structure had essentially disappeared. A histogram of the field longitude angle, based on data acquired during 1 month at 16 0 latitude, shows an almost total absence of inward-directed fields. A comparison with interplanetary field polarities in the ecliptic, as inferred from geomagnetic field variations, rules out the possibility that a time variation rather than a latitude dependence is responsible. The Pioneer 11 observations imply that the boundary between adjacent sectors corresponds physically to a current sheet surrounding the sun and lying near parallel to the solar equatorial plane. Above this current sheet, in the northern hemisphere, the field polarity at this phase of the solar cycle is outward, and below the current sheet, in the southern hemisphere, it is inward. The Pioneer observations confirm earlier theoretical suggestions regarding the existence and equatorial orientation of this current sheet. The properties of the current sheet and some major implications and questions associated with it are discussed. It is shown that the radial component of the sheet current is compensated by the distributed currents in the northern and southern hemispheres associated with the spiraled interplanetary field

THE IMPACT OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS ON THE BALANCE PERFECT MARKET. AN INTERACTIVE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaharia Marian

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Given that the market equilibrium at a given time t is the result of ratio of product demand, at the same moment of time t, and the supply launched at an earlier time t − Δt , and given that the product remains on the market until the sale was full, rationality of supply decision, by future sizing anticipating of demand, has a fundamental influence on the stability and equilibrium of product market. This paper provides an interactive version for study of sizing impact on offer, based from three dynamic models of perfect markets, derived from Kaldor's cobweb model. Using the same values of marginal demand, marginal supply and incompressible demand and supply are presented interactively the influences of the producer decision on the stability of the product market. IT produs, dezvoltat pentru acest scop poate fi utilizat, de asemenea, în cereri şi cursuri practice în microeconomie, dinamica economică, luarea deciziilor şi altele.

Error Analysis Of Clock Time (T), Declination (*) And Latitude ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

), latitude (Φ), longitude (λ) and azimuth (A); which are aimed at establishing fixed positions and orientations of survey points and lines on the earth surface. The paper attempts the analysis of the individual and combined effects of error in time ...

The effect of latitude on the performance of different solar trackers in Europe and Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bahrami, Arian; Okoye, Chiemeka Onyeka; Atikol, Ugur

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The effect of latitude on the performance of seven solar trackers is analyzed in Europe and Africa. • The performance of the trackers is ranked according to the area location latitude. • The results showed five ranking patterns. • Based on the five patterns and the site latitude, designers can select the best available tracker. - Abstract: In this paper, the effect of latitude on the performance of different solar trackers is examined. The hourly solar radiation data of different locations around Europe and Africa measured on a horizontal surface is collected and utilized. Widely validated Perez anisotropic model is used to predict the diffuse component of the solar radiation on an inclined surface. Different solar trackers namely, Full/dual-axis, East–West (EW), North–South (NS), Inclined East–West (IEW), and Vertical-axis (V) trackers are considered in calculating the available solar potential of the locations. The performance of the solar trackers in terms of the energy gain is ranked according to the area location latitudes. The results show that the tracking performance is highly dependent on the locations, thus changes with the latitude. The percentage variation among the implemented one-axis tracking options relative to dual-axis trackers ranges from 0.42% to 23.4%. Overall, the increase in the energy gain of dual-axis trackers compared to the optimal fixed panel for the locations varies from 17.72% to 31.23%, thus emphasizes the importance of solar trackers. Finally, the study is expected to aid designers in the selection and installation of appropriate solar trackers in the regions.

Decentralized Channel Decisions of Green Supply Chain in a Fuzzy Decision Making Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengju Sang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the greening policies in a decentralized channel between one manufacturer and one retailer in a fuzzy decision making environment. We consider the manufacturing cost and the parameters of demand function as the fuzzy variables. Based on the different market structures, we develop three different fuzzy decentralized decision models. For each case, the expected value, optimistic value and pessimistic value models are formulated, and their optimal solutions are also derived through the fuzzy set theory. Finally, three numerical examples are solved to examine the effectiveness of fuzzy models. The effects of the confidence level of the supply chain memberrs profits and the fuzziness of parameters on optimal prices, level of green innovation, and fuzzy expected profits of actors are also analyzed.

Satisficing in split-second decision making is characterized by strategic cue discounting.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias

2016-12-01

Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through satisficing, fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of information (cues) while ignoring others. However, the decision-making strategies we adopt under uncertainty and time pressure, for example during emergencies that demand split-second choices, are presently unknown. To characterize these decision strategies quantitatively, the present study examined how people solve a novel multicue probabilistic classification task under varying time pressure, by tracking shifts in decision strategies using variational Bayesian inference. We found that under low time pressure, participants correctly weighted and integrated all available cues to arrive at near-optimal decisions. With increasingly demanding, subsecond time pressures, however, participants systematically discounted a subset of the cue information by dropping the least informative cue(s) from their decision making process. Thus, the human cognitive apparatus copes with uncertainty and severe time pressure by adopting a "drop-the-worst" cue decision making strategy that minimizes cognitive time and effort investment while preserving the consideration of the most diagnostic cue information, thus maintaining "good-enough" accuracy. This advance in our understanding of satisficing strategies could form the basis of predicting human choices in high time pressure scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Cognitive Demands Influence Lower Extremity Mechanics During a Drop Vertical Jump Task in Female Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Almonroeder, Thomas Gus; Kernozek, Thomas; Cobb, Stephen; Slavens, Brooke; Wang, Jinsung; Huddleston, Wendy

2018-05-01

Study Design Cross-sectional study. Background The drop vertical jump task is commonly used to screen for anterior cruciate ligament injury risk; however, its predictive validity is limited. The limited predictive validity of the drop vertical jump task may be due to not imposing the cognitive demands that reflect sports participation. Objectives To investigate the influence of additional cognitive demands on lower extremity mechanics during execution of the drop vertical jump task. Methods Twenty uninjured women (age range, 18-25 years) were required to perform the standard drop vertical jump task, as well as drop vertical jumps that included additional cognitive demands. The additional cognitive demands were related to attending to an overhead goal (ball suspended overhead) and/or temporal constraints on movement selection (decision making). Three-dimensional ground reaction forces and lower extremity mechanics were compared between conditions. Results The inclusion of the overhead goal resulted in higher peak vertical ground reaction forces and lower peak knee flexion angles in comparison to the standard drop vertical jump task. In addition, participants demonstrated greater peak knee abduction angles when trials incorporated temporal constraints on decision making and/or required participants to attend to an overhead goal, in comparison to the standard drop vertical jump task. Conclusion Imposing additional cognitive demands during execution of the drop vertical jump task influenced lower extremity mechanics in a manner that suggested increased loading of the anterior cruciate ligament. Tasks utilized in anterior cruciate ligament injury risk screening may benefit from more closely reflecting the cognitive demands of the sports environment. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2018;48(5):381-387. Epub 10 Jan 2018. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.7739.

Constructing multi-labelled decision trees for junction design using the predicted probabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bezembinder, Erwin M.; Wismans, Luc J. J.; Van Berkum, Eric C.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we evaluate the use of traditional decision tree algorithms CRT, CHAID and QUEST to determine a decision tree which can be used to predict a set of (Pareto optimal) junction design alternatives (e.g. signal or roundabout) for a given traffic demand pattern and available space. This is

Splash albedo protons between 4 and 315 MeV at high and low geomagnetic latitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wenzel, K.; Stone, E.C.; Vogt, R.E.

1975-01-01

The differential energy spectrum of splash albedo protons has been measured at high geomagnetic latitude near Fort Churchill, Manitoba, at three periods of the solar cycle in 1966, and 1969 and at low latitude near Palestine, Texas, in 1967 by using a balloon-borne solid state detector telescope. We observed splash albedo proton fluxes between 4 and 315 MeV of 81plus-or-minus11, 70plus-or-minus11, and 48plus-or-minus8 protons/(m 2 s sr) at high latitude in 1966, 1967, and 1969 and of 37plus-or-minus9 protons/(m 2 s sr) at low latitude in 1967. The decreases from 1966 to 1969 are due to solar modulation of the cosmic ray parent nuclei. The albedo spectrum shows a similar shape for both latitudes. The difference in intensity can be explained by different local geomagnetic cutoffs; i.e., a significant contribution to the splash albedo flux arises from primary particles with rigidity below 4.5 GV. The splash albedo flux near Fort Churchill is consistent with corresponding fluxes previously reported near 53degree--55degreeN. The flux below 100 MeV near Palestine is significantly lower than that reported by Verma (1967)

Providing frequency regulation reserve services using demand response scheduling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motalleb, Mahdi; Thornton, Matsu; Reihani, Ehsan; Ghorbani, Reza

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Proposing a market model for contingency reserve services using demand response. • Considering transient limitations of grid frequency for inverter-based generations. • Price-sensitive scheduling of residential batteries and water heaters using dynamic programming. • Calculating the profits of both generation companies and demand response aggregators. - Abstract: During power grid contingencies, frequency regulation is a primary concern. Historically, frequency regulation during contingency events has been the sole responsibility of the power utility. We present a practical method of using distributed demand response scheduling to provide frequency regulation during contingency events. This paper discusses the implementation of a control system model for the use of distributed energy storage systems such as battery banks and electric water heaters as a source of ancillary services. We present an algorithm which handles the optimization of demand response scheduling for normal operation and during contingency events. We use dynamic programming as an optimization tool. A price signal is developed using optimal power flow calculations to determine the locational marginal price of electricity, while sensor data for water usage is also collected. Using these inputs to dynamic programming, the optimal control signals are given as output. We assume a market model in which distributed demand response resources are sold as a commodity on the open market and profits from demand response aggregators as brokers of distributed demand response resources can be calculated. In considering control decisions for regulation of transient changes in frequency, we focus on IEEE standard 1547 in order to prevent the safety shut-off of inverter-based generation and further exacerbation of frequency droop. This method is applied to IEEE case 118 as a demonstration of the method in practice.

Industrial energy efficiency: the need for investment decision support from a manager perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandberg, Peter; Soederstroem, Mats

2003-01-01

Global competition, commitment to the Kyoto Protocol and a deregulated, integrated European electricity market will in all probability increase the demand for energy efficiency on the part of companies in Sweden. Investment decisions are an important part of meeting the new demands, because they decide the future efficiency of industrial energy systems. The objective of this study is to investigate, from a managerial perspective, the need to improve decision support in some industries, which can help to facilitate and improve investment decisions concerning energy efficiency. This work has been conducted through in-depth interviews with representatives for a number of energy-intensive companies and non-energy-intensive companies from different sectors. One need that was identified was the improvement of working methods in order to support the decision-making process. Here, external players seem to be playing an increasingly important role. Access to correct information, better follow-up activities, and transparent, understandable calculations are also considered to be important. The study will form the foundation for subsequent work on decision support and energy efficiency in industry

Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chin, L. (Bentley College, Waltham, MA (United States)); Vollmann, T.E. (International Inst. for Management Development, Lausanne (Switzerland))

A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply.

Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chin, L.; Vollmann, T.E.

1992-01-01

A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply

Scotland's forgotten carbon: a national assessment of mid-latitude fjord sedimentary carbon stocks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Smeaton

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Fjords are recognised as hotspots for the burial and long-term storage of carbon (C and potentially provide a significant climate regulation service over multiple timescales. Understanding the magnitude of marine sedimentary C stores and the processes which govern their development is fundamental to understanding the role of the coastal ocean in the global C cycle. In this study, we use the mid-latitude fjords of Scotland as a natural laboratory to further develop methods to quantify these marine sedimentary C stores on both the individual fjord and national scale. Targeted geophysical and geochemical analysis has allowed the quantification of sedimentary C stocks for a number of mid-latitude fjords and, coupled with upscaling techniques based on fjord classification, has generated the first full national sedimentary C inventory for a fjordic system. The sediments within these mid-latitude fjords hold 640.7 ± 46 Mt of C split between 295.6 ± 52 and 345.1 ± 39 Mt of organic and inorganic C, respectively. When compared, these marine mid-latitude sedimentary C stores are of similar magnitude to their terrestrial equivalents, with the exception of the Scottish peatlands, which hold significantly more C. However, when area-normalised comparisons are made, these mid-latitude fjords are significantly more effective as C stores than their terrestrial counterparts, including Scottish peatlands. The C held within Scotland's coastal marine sediments has been largely overlooked as a significant component of the nation's natural capital; such coastal C stores are likely to be key to understanding and constraining improved global C budgets.

Boundary layer plasmas as a source for high-latitude, early afternoon, auroral arcs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundin, R.; Evans, D.S.

1985-02-01

Simultaneous measurements of hot boundary layer plasma from PROGNOZ-7 and particle precipitation from the TIROS/NOAA satellite in nearly magnetically conjugate regions have been used to study the dynamo process responsible for the formation of high latitude, early afternoon, auroral arcs. Characteristic for the PROGNOZ-7 observations in the dayside boundary layer at high latitudes is the frequent occurrence of regions with injected magnetosheath plasma embedded in a 'halo' of antisunward flowing magnetosphere plasma. The injected magnetosheath plasma have several features which indicate that it also acts as a local source of EMF in the boundary layer. The process resembles that of a local MHD dynamo driven by the excess drift velocity of the injected magnetosheath plasma relative to the background magnetospheric plasma. The dynamo region is capable of driving fielc-aligned currents that couple to the ionosphere, where the upward current is associated with the high latitude auroral arcs. We demonstrate that the large-scale morphology as well as the detailed data intercomparison between PROGNOZ-7 and TIROS-N both agree well with a local injection of magnetosheath plasma into the dayside boundary layer as the main dynamo process powering the high-latitude, early afternoon auroral arcs. (Author)

Strategies to increase demand for maternal health services in resource-limited settings: challenges to be addressed.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmusharaf, Khalifa; Byrne, Elaine; O'Donovan, Diarmuid

2015-09-08

Universal health access will not be achieved unless women are cared for in their own communities and are empowered to take decisions about their own health in a supportive environment. This will only be achieved by community-based demand side interventions for maternal health access. In this review article, we highlight three common strategies to increase demand-side barriers to maternal healthcare access and identify the main challenges that still need to be addressed for these strategies to be effective. Common demand side strategies can be grouped into three categories:(i) Financial incentives/subsidies; (ii) Enhancing patient transfer, and; (iii) Community involvement. The main challenges in assessing the effectiveness or efficacy of these interventions or strategies are the lack of quality evidence on their outcome and impact and interventions not integrated into existing health or community systems. However, what is highlighted in this review and overlooked in most of the published literature on this topic is the lack of knowledge about the context in which these strategies are to be implemented. We suggest three challenges that need to be addressed to create a supportive environment in which these demand-side strategies can effectively improve access to maternal health services. These include: addressing decision-making norms, engaging in intergenerational dialogue, and designing contextually appropriate communication strategies.

Movie-maps of low-latitude magnetic storm disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Gannon, Jennifer L.

2010-06-01

We present 29 movie-maps of low-latitude horizontal-intensity magnetic disturbance for the years 1999-2006: 28 recording magnetic storms and 1 magnetically quiescent period. The movie-maps are derived from magnetic vector time series data collected at up to 25 ground-based observatories. Using a technique similar to that used in the calculation of Dst, a quiet time baseline is subtracted from the time series from each observatory. The remaining disturbance time series are shown in a polar coordinate system that accommodates both Earth rotation and the universal time dependence of magnetospheric disturbance. Each magnetic storm recorded in the movie-maps is different. While some standard interpretations about the storm time equatorial ring current appear to apply to certain moments and certain phases of some storms, the movie-maps also show substantial variety in the local time distribution of low-latitude magnetic disturbance, especially during storm commencements and storm main phases. All movie-maps are available at the U.S. Geological Survey Geomagnetism Program Web site (http://geomag.usgs.gov).

Warming increases plant biomass and reduces diversity across continents, latitudes, and species migration scenarios in experimental wetland communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Andrew H; Jensen, Kai; Schönfeldt, Marisa

2014-03-01

Atmospheric warming may influence plant productivity and diversity and induce poleward migration of species, altering communities across latitudes. Complicating the picture is that communities from different continents deviate in evolutionary histories, which may modify responses to warming and migration. We used experimental wetland plant communities grown from seed banks as model systems to determine whether effects of warming on biomass production and species richness are consistent across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios. We collected soil samples from each of three tidal freshwater marshes in estuaries at three latitudes (north, middle, south) on the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. In one experiment, we exposed soil seed bank communities from each latitude and continent to ambient and elevated (+2.8 °C) temperatures in the greenhouse. In a second experiment, soil samples were mixed either within each estuary (limited migration) or among estuaries from different latitudes in each continent (complete migration). Seed bank communities of these migration scenarios were also exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures and contrasted with a no-migration treatment. In the first experiment, warming overall increased biomass (+16%) and decreased species richness (-14%) across latitudes in Europe and North America. Species richness and evenness of south-latitude communities were less affected by warming than those of middle and north latitudes. In the second experiment, warming also stimulated biomass and lowered species richness. In addition, complete migration led to increased species richness (+60% in North America, + 100% in Europe), but this higher diversity did not translate into increased biomass. Species responded idiosyncratically to warming, but Lythrum salicaria and Bidens sp. increased significantly in response to warming in both continents. These results reveal for the first time consistent impacts of warming on biomass and

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Urata, Junji; Pel, A.J.

2017-01-01

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami

A Composite Contract for Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Effort Dependent Stochastic Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Shuang Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available As the demand is more sensitive to price and sales effort, this paper investigates the issue of channel coordination for a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer facing price and effort dependent stochastic demand. A composite contract based on the quantity-restricted returns and target sales rebate can achieve coordination in this setting. Two main problems are addressed: (1 how to coordinate the decentralized supply chain; (2 how to determine the optimal sales effort level, pricing, and inventory decisions under the additive demand case. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of combined contract in supply chain coordination and highlight model sensitivities to parametric changes.

Heating and dehumidification in production greenhouses at northern latitudes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kempkes, F.; Zwart, De H.F.; Munoz, P.; Montero, J.I.; Baptista, F.J.; Giuffrida, F.; Gilli, Celine; Stepowska, Agnieszka; Stanghellini, C.

2017-01-01

The majority of greenhouses in northern latitudes are heated, in the winter mainly for temperature control and year round to control humidity. Heating is accepted by most organic regulations in different countries; if heating efficiently and the energy source is predominantly renewable energy,

Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

2012-01-01

Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

Introduction to Modeling of Buying Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Gruenwald

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Buying decision models of customers to adjust the competitiveness of organizations have been a challenge for marketing disciplines for several generations. This topic has been explored by researchers and academics in past years, and quite an extensive theoretical base exists with a number of approaches for dealing with this challenge.This paper presents some approaches for creating a customer decision model, and provides experimental results from an electronic investigation intended to build the Kano Model; to prove an ability to understand the modeling principle; and to find out the interpretation of the examined demand in a specific market segment involving students of a technical university. The last section of the paper contains a brief introduction to Choice-Based Modeling with Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (CBC, which was tailored for modeling purchasing decisions.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Utility-maximizing model of household time use for independent, shared, and allocated activities incorporating group decision mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.

2002-01-01

Existing activity-based models of transport demand typically assume an individual decision-making process. The focus on theories of individual decision making may be partially due to the lack of behaviorally oriented modeling methodologies for group decision making. Therefore, an attempt has been

A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yulei Song

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities.

Newsvendor Models for Innovative Products with One-Shot Decision Theory

OpenAIRE

Guo, Peijun; Ma, Xiuyan

2014-01-01

In this paper, newsvendor problems for innovative products are analyzed. Becausethe product is new, no relevant historical data is available for statistical demand analysis. Insteadof using the probability distribution, the possibility distribution is utilized to characterize theuncertainty of the demand. We consider products whose life cycles are expected to be smallerthan the procurement lead times. Determining optimal order quantities of such products is atypical one-shot decision problem ...

Better Demand Signal, Better Decisions? Evaluation of Big Data in a Licensed Remanufacturing Supply Chain with Environmental Risk Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Baozhuang; Zou, Zongbao

2017-08-01

Big data ability helps obtain more accurate demand signal. However, is better demand signal always beneficial for the supply chain parties? To answer this question, we investigate a remanufacturing supply chain (RSC), where demand uncertainty is significant, and the value to reduce environmental risk is large. Specifically, we focus on a licensed RSC comprising an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a third-party remanufacturer (3PR). The latter pays a unit license fee to the former, and can be risk averse to the demand of remanufactured products. We show that the OEM and the risk-neutral 3PR always have incentives to improve their big data abilities to increase their profits. However, when the 3PR is risk averse, big data might hurt its profit: the value of big data is positive if its demand signal accuracy is sufficiently low. Interestingly, we find that while information sharing hurts the 3PR, it benefits the OEM as well as the supply chain. Thus, if costly information sharing is allowed, a win-win situation can be achieved. We also find that information sharing generates more valuation when the 3PR is risk averse than that when the 3PR is risk neutral. More importantly, we find that the 3PR's risk attitude and demand signal accuracy can significantly mitigate the negative environmental impact (measured by the amount of the waste): (1) the more risk neutral the 3PR is, the better the environment is; (2) the more accurate demand signal is, the better the environment is. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The effect of vibrationally excited nitrogen on the low-latitude ionosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Jenkins

1997-11-01

Full Text Available The first five vibrationally excited states of molecular nitrogen have been included in the Sheffield University plasmasphere ionosphere model. Vibrationally excited molecular nitrogen reacts much more strongly with atomic oxygen ions than ground-state nitrogen; this means that more O+ ions are converted to NO+ ions, which in turn combine with the electrons to give reduced electron densities. Model calculations have been carried out to investigate the effect of including vibrationally excited molecular nitrogen on the low-latitude ionosphere. In contrast to mid-latitudes, a reduction in electron density is seen in all seasons during solar maximum, the greatest effect being at the location of the equatorial trough.

High Latitude Corals Tolerate Severe Cold Spell

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chenae A. Tuckett

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climatically extreme weather events often drive long-term ecological responses of ecosystems. By disrupting the important symbiosis with zooxanthellae, Marine Cold Spells (MCS can cause bleaching and mortality in tropical and subtropical scleractinian corals. Here we report on the effects of a severe MCS on high latitude corals, where we expected to find bleaching and mortality. The MCS took place off the coast of Perth (32°S, Western Australia in 2016. Bleaching was assessed before (2014 and after (2017 the MCS from surveys of permanent plots, and with timed bleaching searches. Temperature data was recorded with in situ loggers. During the MCS temperatures dipped to the coldest recorded in ten years (15.3°C and periods of <17°C lasted for up to 19 days. Only 4.3% of the surveyed coral colonies showed signs of bleaching. Bleaching was observed in 8 species where those most affected were Plesiastrea versipora and Montipora mollis. These findings suggest that high latitude corals in this area are tolerant of cold stress and are not persisting near a lethal temperature minimum. It has not been established whether other environmental conditions are limiting these species, and if so, what the implications are for coral performance on these reefs in a warmer future.

Knowledge acquisition and interface design for learning on demand systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Wayne A.

1993-01-01

The rapid changes in our world precipitated by technology have created new problems and new challenges for education and training. A knowledge 'explosion' is occurring as our society moves toward a service oriented economy that relies on information as the major resource. Complex computer systems are beginning to dominate the workplace, causing alarming growth and change in many fields. The rapidly changing nature of the workplace, especially in fields related to information technology, requires that our knowledge be updated constantly. This characteristic of modern society poses seemingly unsolvable instructional problems involving coverage and obsolescence. The sheer amount of information to be learned is rapidly increasing, while at the same time some information becomes obsolete in light of new information. Education, therefore, must become a lifelong process that features learning of new material and skills as needed in relation to the job to be done. Because of the problems cited above, the current model of learning in advance may no longer be feasible in our high-technology world. In many cases, learning in advance is impossible because there are simply too many things to learn. In addition, learning in advance can be time consuming, and often results in decontextualized knowledge that does not readily transfer to the work environment. The large and growing discrepancy between the amount of potentially relevant knowledge available and the amount a person can know and remember makes learning on demand an important alternative to current instructional practices. Learning on demand takes place whenever an individual must learn something new in order to perform a task or make a decision. Learning on demand is a promising approach for addressing the problems of coverage and obsolescence because learning is contextualized and integrated into the task environment rather than being relegated to a separate phase that precedes work. Learning on demand allows learners

Decision Making in Action

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS IN U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATORY DECISIONS

OpenAIRE

Easter, K. William; Archibald, Sandra O.

1998-01-01

As the number and cost of environmental regulations have increased over the last thirty years, the regulated community, taxpayers, and policy makers have begun to demand that the benefits of regulations justify their costs. The use of benefit-cost analysis as an integral part of developing new regulations is increasing and the demands and expectations being placed on the method have expanded. Although benefit-cost analysis is expected to play an even greater role in environmental decision mak...

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

Lidar measurements of mesospheric temperature inversion at a low latitude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Siva Kumar

Full Text Available The Rayleigh lidar data collected on 119 nights from March 1998 to February 2000 were used to study the statistical characteristics of the low latitude mesospheric temperature inversion observed over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, India. The occurrence frequency of the inversion showed semiannual variation with maxima in the equinoxes and minima in the summer and winter, which was quite different from that reported for the mid-latitudes. The peak of the inversion layer was found to be confined to the height range of 73 to 79 km with the maximum occurrence centered around 76 km, with a weak seasonal dependence that fits well to an annual cycle with a maximum in June and a minimum in December. The magnitude of the temperature deviation associated with the inversion was found to be as high as 32 K, with the most probable value occurring at about 20 K. Its seasonal dependence seems to follow an annual cycle with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. The observed characteristics of the inversion layer are compared with that of the mid-latitudes and discussed in light of the current understanding of the source mechanisms.

Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (pressure, density and temperature. Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology

Ionosphere Scintillation at Low and High Latitudes (Modelling vs Measurement)

Science.gov (United States)

Béniguel, Yannick

2016-04-01

This paper will address the problem of scintillations characteristics, focusing on the parameters of interest for a navigation system. Those parameters are the probabilities of occurrence of simultaneous fading, the bubbles surface at IPP level, the cycle slips and the fades duration statistics. The scintillation characteristics obtained at low and high latitudes will be compared. These results correspond to the data analysis performed after the ESA Monitor ionosphere measurement campaign [1], [2]. A second aspect of the presentation will be the modelling aspect. It has been observed that the phase scintillation dominates at high latitudes while the intensity scintillation dominates at low latitudes. The way it can be reproduced and implemented in a propagation model (e.g. GISM model [3]) will be presented. Comparisons of measurements with results obtained by modelling will be presented on some typical scenarios. References [1] R. Prieto Cerdeira, Y. Beniguel, "The MONITOR project: architecture, data and products", Ionospheric Effects Symposium, Alexandria (Va), May 2011 [2] Y. Béniguel, R Orus-Perez , R. Prieto-Cerdeira , S. Schlueter , S. Scortan, A. Grosu "MONITOR 2: ionospheric monitoring network in support to SBAS and other GNSS and scientific purposes", IES Conference, Alexandria (Va), May 2015-05-22 [3] Y. Béniguel, P. Hamel, "A Global Ionosphere Scintillation Propagation Model for Equatorial Regions", Journal of Space Weather Space Climate, 1, (2011), doi: 10.1051/swsc/2011004

Delay in solar energetic particle onsets at high heliographic latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Dalla

2003-06-01

Full Text Available Ulysses observations have shown that solar energetic particles (SEPs can easily reach high heliographic latitudes. To obtain information on the release and propagation of SEPs prior to their arrival at Ulysses, we analyse the onsets of nine large high-latitude particle events. We measure the onset times in several energy channels, and plot them versus inverse particle speed. This allows us to derive an experimental path length and time of release from the solar atmosphere. We repeat the procedure for near-Earth observations by Wind and SOHO. We find that the derived path lengths at Ulysses are 1.06 to 2.45 times the length of a Parker spiral magnetic field line connecting the spacecraft to the Sun. The time of particle release from the Sun is between 100 and 350 min later than the release time derived from in-ecliptic measurements. We find no evidence of correlation between the delay in release and the inverse of the speed of the CME associated with the event, or the inverse of the speed of the corresponding interplanetary shock. The main parameter determining the magnitude of the delay appears to be the difference in latitude between the flare and the footpoint of the spacecraft.Key words. Interplanetary physics (energetic particles – Solar physics, astrophysics and astronomy (energetic particles, flares and mass ejections

Turnover intention and emotional exhaustion "at the top": adapting the job demands-resources model to leaders of addiction treatment organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Knudsen, Hannah K; Ducharme, Lori J; Roman, Paul M

2009-01-01

Compared with the large literature on subordinate employees, there are few studies of emotional exhaustion and turnover intention for organizational leaders. There is little research that has extended the job demands-resources (JD-R) model of emotional exhaustion to leaders. In this study, the authors adapted the JD-R framework to analyze data collected from a sample of 410 leaders of addiction treatment organizations. The authors considered whether two job demands (performance demands and centralization) and two job resources (innovation in decision making and long-range strategic planning) were associated with emotional exhaustion and turnover intention. The authors also examined whether emotional exhaustion fully or partially mediated the associations between the job-related measures and turnover intention. The results supported the partially mediated model. Both job demands were positively associated with emotional exhaustion, and the association for long-range strategic planning was negative. Emotional exhaustion was positively associated with turnover intention. Centralization and innovation in decision making were also directly associated with turnover intention. Future research should continue to examine this theoretical framework among leaders of other types of organizations using more refined measures of demands and resources.

Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2010-01-04

Jan 4, 2010 ... reliable information about the river basin in terms of physical, hydrological ... decision making (MCDM) methods to cope with water-related problems in .... tial tool to account for water availability and demand scenar- ios, and ...

An Economic Order Quantity Model with Completely Backordering and Nondecreasing Demand under Two-Level Trade Credit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zohreh Molamohamadi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the traditional inventory system, it was implicitly assumed that the buyer pays to the seller as soon as he receives the items. In today’s competitive industry, however, the seller usually offers the buyer a delay period to settle the account of the goods. Not only the seller but also the buyer may apply trade credit as a strategic tool to stimulate his customers’ demands. This paper investigates the effects of the latter policy, two-level trade credit, on a retailer’s optimal ordering decisions within the economic order quantity framework and allowable shortages. Unlike most of the previous studies, the demand function of the customers is considered to increase with time. The objective of the retailer’s inventory model is to maximize the profit. The replenishment decisions optimally are obtained using genetic algorithm. Two special cases of the proposed model are discussed and the impacts of parameters on the decision variables are finally investigated. Numerical examples demonstrate the profitability of the developed two-level supply chain with backorder.

Linkage of management decision to shareholder's value: EVA concept

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shrikant Krupasindhu Panigrahi

2014-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the author investigated the influence of management decisions like capital structure, dividend policies, remunerations, credit policy decisions and investment decisions on shareholder wealth maximization. To achieve the objective, portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model and modern financial theory providing evidence on the linkage between management decisions to shareholder’s value. Shareholders are only concerned about the value of shares of the company and the amount of return in the form of dividend paid. Thus in order to meet the demands of the shareholders of the company, managers needs to increase their abilities and skills to overcome the organizational goals. Thus the main goal of this paper is to discuss on the role of management decisions towards increasing shareholder’s wealth and meet organizational goals.

The Largs high-latitude oxygen isotope anomaly (New Zealand) and climatic controls of oxygen isotopes in magma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blattner, P.; Williams, J.G.

1991-01-01

In northern Fiordland the Brook Street terrane of New Zealand consists of two units - the predominantly basaltic Plato and the predominantly andesitic Largs terrane. The Permian Plato terrane has normal to slightly enriched δ 18 O values, whereas the Largs terrane, which is of similar pre-early Triassic age, has not yielded a single normal δ 18 O SMOW result, with all of 17 total rocks showing less than 3.2per mille, seven less than -4per mille, and two less than -9per mille. These strongly anomalous data confirm an earlier suggested terrestrial character of Largs deposition, and demand the presence of Permo-Triassic geothermal systems running on subAntarctic to Antarctic meteoric water. The skewed data spectrum suggests a relatively immature flow system and likely values for the recharge water are -20per mille δ 18 O or less. For a climate distribution similar to the present one, inlcuding polar ice caps, this would indicate over 70deg of southern latitude. Rafts and xenoliths of Largs rocks have been entrained within Mackay Intrusives in the early Triassic. On field evidence the Mackay magmas have also intruded an early Darran Complex, but this complex has been substantially reactivated in the Cretaceous. It has δ 18 O values near 5.0per mille, which is distinctly low for island arc magmas. Since the complex is isotopically homogenous, its δ 18 O is unlikely to be a direct effect of the relatively shallow Largs terrane. More probable is a climate related slight depression of the δ 18 O of magma sources, in which other high-latitude, low-δ 18 O sediments and geothermal systems have been involved. (orig.)

Key Variables for Decision-Making on Urban Renewal in China: A Case Study of Chongqing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Zhou

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Currently, the Chinese government leads urban renewal via a top-down management style with the government playing the role of decision-maker. The decision-making opinions held by groups of stakeholders are divided, which creates many social problems, project technical issues and even civil disorder. This paper uses factor analysis to extract the key variables for decision-making on urban renewal and the entropy weight method to sort these key variables by importance. Based on this order, the differing opinions of stakeholders regarding urban renewal decision-making are explored. First, contradictory opinions exist concerning the importance of the ecological environment, housing and facilities, social welfare and commercial activities, which are the main driving forces behind urban renewal, due to the groups of stakeholders having different interest demands. Second, these varying interest demands of the stakeholders affect the urban renewal decision-making results. Finally, compensation to people for the demolition of their homes, infrastructure supplements and the investment behaviour of developers display the greatest lack of consensus of all the variables tested in urban renewal decision-making between different stakeholders.

Variation of saturation effect in the ionospheric F2 critical frequency at low latitude

Science.gov (United States)

Ikubanni, S. O.; Adeniyi, J. O.

2013-08-01

Saturation in the dependence of foF2 on solar flux is a phenomenon more pronounced in the equatorial ionization anomaly region. The phenomenon was observed in the relationship between the F2 critical frequency (foF2) and any solar indices. Using a two-segmented regression fit on data from an African low latitude station (Geographical Latitude 12.4°N; Geomagnetic latitude 3.5°N), saturation features from the dependence of foF2 on solar radio flux (F10.7) was studied. Diurnal and seasonal variation were studied for the first time in this low latitude region of the African sector. Significant variations were observed, especially in the solstices. It was observed that saturation effect is closely related to the hourly F2 critical frequency and these results were compared with those from Asian, Australian and the American sectors. The diurnal and seasonal variations find their explanations in the photo-ionization process, the fountain effect, and the pre-reversal enhancement while the seasonal variation was attributed to both the ion drift and thermospheric circulation. Future work with larger volume of data is expected to validate the observations from this study.

A Nondominated Genetic Algorithm Procedure for Multiobjective Discrete Network Design under Demand Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bian Changzhi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the multiobjective discrete network design problem under demand uncertainty. The OD travel demands are supposed to be random variables with the given probability distribution. The problem is formulated as a bilevel stochastic optimization model where the decision maker’s objective is to minimize the construction cost, the expectation, and the standard deviation of total travel time simultaneously and the user’s route choice is described using user equilibrium model on the improved network under all scenarios of uncertain demand. The proposed model generates globally near-optimal Pareto solutions for network configurations based on the Monte Carlo simulation and nondominated sorting genetic algorithms II. Numerical experiments implemented on Nguyen-Dupuis test network show trade-offs among construction cost, the expectation, and standard deviation of total travel time under uncertainty are obvious. Investment on transportation facilities is an efficient method to improve the network performance and reduce risk under demand uncertainty, but it has an obvious marginal decreasing effect.

Response of the convecting high-latitude F layer to a powerful HF wave

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. I. Mingaleva

1997-10-01

Full Text Available A numerical model of the high-latitude ionosphere, which takes into account the convection of the ionospheric plasma, has been developed and utilized to simulate the F-layer response at auroral latitudes to high-power radio waves. The model produces the time variations of the electron density, positive ion velocity, and ion and electron temperature profiles within a magnetic field tube carried over an ionospheric heater by the convection electric field. The simulations have been performed for the point with the geographic coordinates of the ionospheric HF heating facility near Tromso, Norway, when it is located near the midnight magnetic meridian. The calculations have been made for equinox, at high-solar-activity, and low-geomagnetic-activity conditions. The results indicate that significant variations of the electron temperature, positive ion velocity, and electron density profiles can be produced by HF heating in the convecting high-latitude F layer.

Response of the convecting high-latitude F layer to a powerful HF wave

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. I. Mingaleva

Full Text Available A numerical model of the high-latitude ionosphere, which takes into account the convection of the ionospheric plasma, has been developed and utilized to simulate the F-layer response at auroral latitudes to high-power radio waves. The model produces the time variations of the electron density, positive ion velocity, and ion and electron temperature profiles within a magnetic field tube carried over an ionospheric heater by the convection electric field. The simulations have been performed for the point with the geographic coordinates of the ionospheric HF heating facility near Tromso, Norway, when it is located near the midnight magnetic meridian. The calculations have been made for equinox, at high-solar-activity, and low-geomagnetic-activity conditions. The results indicate that significant variations of the electron temperature, positive ion velocity, and electron density profiles can be produced by HF heating in the convecting high-latitude F layer.

Decision Making in the Airplane

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

Circum-Arctic petroleum systems identified using decision-tree chemometrics

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, K.E.; Ramos, L.S.; Zumberge, J.E.; Valin, Z.C.; Scotese, C.R.; Gautier, D.L.

2007-01-01

Source- and age-related biomarker and isotopic data were measured for more than 1000 crude oil samples from wells and seeps collected above approximately 55??N latitude. A unique, multitiered chemometric (multivariate statistical) decision tree was created that allowed automated classification of 31 genetically distinct circumArctic oil families based on a training set of 622 oil samples. The method, which we call decision-tree chemometrics, uses principal components analysis and multiple tiers of K-nearest neighbor and SIMCA (soft independent modeling of class analogy) models to classify and assign confidence limits for newly acquired oil samples and source rock extracts. Geochemical data for each oil sample were also used to infer the age, lithology, organic matter input, depositional environment, and identity of its source rock. These results demonstrate the value of large petroleum databases where all samples were analyzed using the same procedures and instrumentation. Copyright ?? 2007. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Family Structure, Psychosocial Factors, and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the NHLBI CARDIA Study

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-21

depression syndromes (48). The Karasek Job Strain scale is a 15 item self report measure which asks about the demandingness of participants’ work...Heart failure patients’ perceptions on nutrition and dietary adherence. Eur. J. of Card. Nurs. 8: 323-28 27. Karasek R, Baker D, Marxer F, Ahlbom A... Theorell T. 1981. Job decision latitude, job demands, and cardiovascular disease: A prospective study of Swedish men. Am. J. of Pub. Heal. 71: 694

Ionosonde observations of daytime spread F at low latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Chunhua; Yang, Guobin; Liu, Jing; Yokoyama, Tatsuhiro; Komolmis, Tharadol; Song, Huan; Lan, Ting; Zhou, Chen; Zhang, Yuannong; Zhao, Zhengyu

2016-12-01

Spread F on ionograms has been considered to be a phenomenon mainly occurred at nighttime. This study presented a case study of daytime spread F observed by the ionosonde installed at Puer (PUR; 22.7°N, 101.05°E; dip latitude 12.9°N), where daytime spread F that lasted for more than 2 h (about 08:30 LT 10:45 LT) was observed on 14 November 2015. To investigate the possible mechanism, ionograms recorded at PUR and Chiang Mai (18.76°N, 98.93°E; dip latitude 9.04°N) were used in this study. We found that traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed before the occurrence of daytime spread F. Meanwhile, the movement of the peak height of the ionosphere was downward. We suggested that downward vertical neutral winds excited by traveling atmospheric disturbances/atmospheric gravity waves might play a significant role in forming daytime spread F over PUR during geomagnetic storms.

High-Latitude Ionospheric Dynamics During Conditions of Northward IMF

Science.gov (United States)

Sharber, J. R.

1996-01-01

In order to better understand the physical processes operating during conditions of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), in situ measurements from the Dynamics Explorer-2 (low altitude) polar satellite and simultaneous observations from the auroral imager on the Dynamics Explorer-1 (high altitude) satellite were used to investigate the relationships between optical emissions, particle precipitation, and convective flows in the high-latitude ionosphere. Field aligned current and convective flow patterns during IMF north include polar cap arcs, the theta aurora or transpolar arc, and the 'horse-collar' aurora. The initial part of the study concentrated on the electrodynamics of auroral features in the horse-collar aurora, a contracted but thickened emission region in which the dawn and dusk portions can spread to very high latitudes, while the latter part focused on the evolution of one type of IMF north auroral pattern to another, specifically the quiet-time horse-collar pattern to a theta aurora.

An analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

Tidal and near-inertial peak variations around the diurnal critical latitude

Science.gov (United States)

van Haren, Hans

2005-12-01

Spectra from historic long-term open-ocean moored current meter data between latitudes 0° shift of the peak frequency to 0.97 +/- 0.01f, or a poleward spreading of enhanced energy. This contrasts with more common blue-shift. The enhancement may be the result of sub-harmonic instability, as supported by sparse significant bicoherence at half-D2, although i) systematic enhancement of diurnal tidal frequencies, notably M1, was not observed, ii) the latitudes of low D2-energy and high f-energy do not coincide. This may be due to a mix of coupled and independent waves, whilst the poleward trapping of sub-f energy suggests non-traditional effects.

Degenerate Quadtree Latitude/Longitude Grid Based on WGS-84 Ellipsoidal Facet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HU Bailin

2016-12-01

Full Text Available For the needs of digital earth development and solving many global problems, a new discrete global grid system-DQLLG (degenerate quadtree latitude/longitude grid was put forward, which was based on WGS-84 ellipsoidal facet. The hierarchical subdivision method, characteristics and grid column/row coordinate system were detailed. The Latitude/Longitude coordinate, area and side length of multi-resolution meshes on different subdivision levels were calculated. Then the changes of mesh areas and side lengths were analyzed and compared that with spherical DQLLG. The research indicates that the DQLLG had many excellent features:uniformity, hierarchy, consistency of direction, extensive data compatibility and so on. It has certain practicality for Global GIS in the future.

Demand grows in N. America as gas supply sources shift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.

1996-01-01

Growing demand for gas as a power-generation fuel is combining with changing patterns of gas transportation to present North American producers and pipelines with a series of new challenges. Results of a recent Enron study show how natural gas supplies available to US markets continue to shift their center of gravity toward Canadian and western sources. These changes--demand growth paced by electricity generation and supply source relocation--plus extraordinary gas basin price differentials this winter, point to (a) the opportunities for and risks of adding pipeline capacity in the US and Canada, on the one hand, and (b) tough decisions that may need to be made by Gulf of Mexico and Midcontinent area producers, on the other, to compete in an environment of changing economics and infrastructure

Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

2014-01-01

It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

SuperDARN HOP radars observation of ionospheric convection associated with low-latitude aurora observed at Hokkaido, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Nishitani, N.; Hori, T.; Kataoka, R.; Ebihara, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Suzuki, H.; Yoshikawa, A.

2016-12-01

The SuperDARN HOkkaido Pair of (HOP) radars, consisting of the Hokkaido East (2006-) and West (2014-) radars, are the SuperDARN radars located at the lowest geomagnetic latitude (36.5 degrees), and have been continuously measuring ionospheric convection at high to subauroral and middle latitudes with high temporal resolutions (Japan from 15 to 19 UT on March 17, 2015 and from 1900 to 2030 UT on December 20, 2015, identified using optical instruments such as all-sky CCD camera, wide field of view digital camera and meridian scanning photometer. Both events occurred during the main phase of the relatively large geomagnetic storms with minimum Dst of -223 nT and -170 nT respectively. The ionospheric convection at mid-latitude regions associated with the low-latitude auroral emission is characterized by (1) transient equatorward flows up to about 500 m/s in the initial phase of the emission (the geomagnetic field data at Paratunka, Far East Russia show corresponding negative excursions), and (2) sheared flow structure consisting of westward flow (about 500 m/s) equatorward of eastward flow (1000 m/s), with the equatorward boundary of auroral emission embedded in the westward flow region which expanded up to below 50 deg geomagnetic latitude. These observations imply that the electric field / convection distribution plays important roles in continuously generating the low latitude auroral emission. In particular the observation of the equatorward flow (dawn-dusk electric field) up to as low as about 50 deg geomagnetic latitude is the direct evidence for the presence of electric field to drive ring current particles into the plasmaspheric regions.

Low-latitude active longitudes on the Sun and in interplanetary space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bumba, V.; Hejna, L.

1991-01-01

Following a short review of the history of the development of the active longitude concept, several graphs are given of the longitudinal distribution of various low-latitude phenomena of solar activity published by various authors. The inclinations of the active longitudes found were calculated. A summary picture of all these inclinations demonstrates the concentration of such active longitudes into two main directions. Two values of synodic rotation: 26.77 days and 27.16 days, correspond to these two types of low-latitude active longitudes, rotating faster than Carrington's rotation. The summary graph of all active longitudes belonging to these two types shows that active longitudes of different activity phenomena and from different authors overlap to a relatively high degree and that they run at least through three eleven-year cycles. The first of these active longitudes moves around the whole Sun in about 45-55 rotations and the second one in about 200 Carrington's rotations. It is believed that both these low-latitude active longitudes have their reflections in the two main inclinations of the interplanetary magnetic field sector boundaries demonstrated by Svalgaard and Wilcox (1975), their synodic rotations being 26.84 days and 27.14 days. (author). 9 figs., 25 refs

Turnover intention and emotional exhaustion “at the top”: Adapting the job demands-resources model to leaders of addiction treatment organizations

Science.gov (United States)

Knudsen, Hannah K.; Ducharme, Lori J.; Roman, Paul M.

2009-01-01

Compared to the large literature on subordinate employees, there are few studies of emotional exhaustion and turnover intention for organizational leaders. There is little research that has extended the job demands-resources (JD-R) model of emotional exhaustion to leaders. In this study, we adapted the JD-R framework in order to analyze data collected from a sample of 410 leaders of addiction treatment organizations. We considered whether two job demands (performance demands and centralization) and two job resources (innovation in decision-making and long-range strategic planning) were associated with emotional exhaustion and turnover intention. We also examined whether emotional exhaustion fully or partially mediated the associations between the job-related measures and turnover intention. The results supported the partially mediated model. Both job demands were positively associated with emotional exhaustion, while the association for long-range strategic planning was negative. Emotional exhaustion was positively associated with turnover intention. Centralization and innovation in decision-making were also directly associated with turnover intention. Future research should continue to examine this theoretical framework among leaders of other types of organizations using more refined measures of demands and resources. PMID:19210050

Astronomy in the Middle of the World: a physical analysis of the astronomic phenomena at Latitude Zero

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, J. N.; Voelzke, M. R.; Araújo, M. S. T.

2018-03-01

Although Astronomy is part of everyday life of the people, peculiarities are little-known for an observer on the equator, as residents in Macapá-AP, located at Latitude Zero. So, this work aims to support physics teaching focusing on the correct diffusion of some physical phenomena which have an intrinsic relationship with Astronomy from the sight of an observer at latitude zero, highlighting the celestial sphere visualization and emphasizing which constellations are visible during an earth year, being proposed the elaboration of a planisphere to this latitude. It's also discussed about the Solstices and, more specifically, about the Equinoxes and their particularities for an observer in latitude zero. The offered approach can help teachers of Physics and Science who work in regular education schools to explore these important astronomical phenomena.

Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

2011-01-01

The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

High-latitude molecular clouds and infrared cirrus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, H.W. de.

1988-01-01

The high-latitude infrared cirrus detected by IRAS is identified with atomic and molecular clouds. These clouds are small (usually less than 1 sq. deg.) and show weak CO emission. On the basis of a distance of 100 pc they are characterized by a mass of a few solar masses and a radius of about 1 pc. Thermal radiation by dust as a results of heating by the diffuse interstellar radiation field is the most-plausible origin of the cirrus emission at far-infrared wavelengths. On the basis of plausible assumptions regarding the uniformity of both the gas-to-dust ratio and the heating and cooling of the dust, the flux density at 100 μm from regions with low visual extinction should be a good tracer of the gas column density. Indeed, the data show an approximately linear proportionality between N(HI), obtained from 21-cm observations, and I 100 (HI), the flux density from dust associated with HI. If the ratio of column density to flux density in high-latitude molecular clouds is equal to the corresponding relation in atomic ones, a value for the ratio of H 2 column density to CO velocity-integrated radiation temperature may be obtained. Although low-mass clouds may be large in number, the fraction of the Galactic molecular mass in the form of these clouds is probably no more than 1%

Decision-Based Design Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design

CERN Document Server

Chen, Wei; Wassenaar, Henk Jan

2013-01-01

Building upon the fundamental principles of decision theory, Decision-Based Design: Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design presents an analytical approach to enterprise-driven Decision-Based Design (DBD) as a rigorous framework for decision making in engineering design.  Once the related fundamentals of decision theory, economic analysis, and econometrics modelling are established, the remaining chapters describe the entire process, the associated analytical techniques, and the design case studies for integrating consumer preference modeling into the enterprise-driven DBD framework. Methods for identifying key attributes, optimal design of human appraisal experiments, data collection, data analysis, and demand model estimation are presented and illustrated using engineering design case studies. The scope of the chapters also provides: •A rigorous framework of integrating the interests from both producer and consumers in engineering design, •Analytical techniques of consumer choice model...

The effect of perceived risks on the demand for vaccination: results from a discrete choice experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md Z Sadique

Full Text Available The demand for vaccination against infectious diseases involves a choice between vaccinating and not vaccinating, in which there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of each option. The aim of this paper is to investigate these trade-offs and to estimate how the perceived prevalence and severity of both the disease against which the vaccine is given and any vaccine associated adverse events (VAAE might affect demand. A discrete choice experiment (DCE was used to elicit stated preferences from a representative sample of 369 U.K. mothers of children below 5 years of age, for three hypothetical vaccines. Cost was included as an attribute, which enabled estimation of the willingness to pay for different vaccines having differing levels of the probability of occurrence and severity of both the infection and VAAE. The results suggest that the severity of the health effects associated with both the diseases and VAAEs exert an important influence on the demand for vaccination, whereas the probability of these events occurring was not a significant predictor. This has important implications for public health policy, which has tended to focus on the probability of these health effects as the main influence on decision making. Our results also suggest that anticipated regrets about the consequences of making the wrong decision also exert an influence on demand.

Effects of psychosocial work factors on lifestyle changes: a cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Allard, Karin Olofsson; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Mikkelsen, Sigurd; Rugulies, Reiner; Mors, Ole; Kærgaard, Anette; Kolstad, Henrik A; Kaerlev, Linda; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Hansen, Ase Marie; Bonde, Jens Peter

2011-12-01

To evaluate the effect of the demand-control-support model, the effort-reward imbalance model, and emotional demands on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index. This is a 2-year prospective cohort study of 3224 public sector employees. Measures were assessed with questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict changes in lifestyle factors. Low reward predicted smoking, low-decision latitude predicted being inactive, and high demands predicted high-alcohol consumption but only for men at follow-up even after controlling for potential confounders. There were no other significant findings in the expected direction except for some of the confounders. We found only limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that a poor psychosocial work environment is associated with an adverse lifestyle.

Demand and Signing of General Practitioner Contract Service among the Urban Elderly: A Population-Based Analysis in Zhejiang Province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanrong Zhao

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study aims to examine whether the urban elderly in the Zhejiang Province of China signed contracts with their general practitioner (GP based on their health service needs, and to further identify the determinants of their demand and signing decisions. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in 16 community health service (CHS institutions in Zhejiang Province, China. The urban elderly over 60 years of age were enrolled when visiting the sampled CHS. Baseline characteristics were compared between participants using Chi-Square tests for categorical variables. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify determinants of the GP contract service demand and signing decisions, respectively. Among the 1440 urban elderly, 56.67% had signed contracts with their GP, and 55.35% had a demand of the GP contract service. The influencing factors of demand were a history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease (OR = 1.33, 95% CI, 1.05–1.68; urban resident basic medical insurance (URBMI vs. urban employee basic medical insurance (UEBMI (OR = 1.96, 95% CI, 1.46–2.61; and middle-income vs. low-income (OR = 0.67, 95% CI, 0.50–0.90 for RMB 1001–3000; OR = 0.59, 95% CI, 0.39–0.90 for RMB 3001–5000. Having a demand for the GP contract service was the strongest determinant of signing decisions (OR = 13.20, 95% CI, 10.09–17.27. Other factors also contributed to these decisions, including gender, caregiver, and income. The urban elderly who had signed contracts with GPs were mainly based on their health care needs. Elderly people with a history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease, as well as those with URBMI, were found to have stronger needs of a GP contract service. It is believed that the high-income elderly should be given equal priority to those of low-income.

Optimal Ordering and Pricing Policies for Seasonal Products: Impacts of Demand Uncertainty and Capital Constraint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinzhao Shi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available With a stochastic price-dependent market demand, this paper investigates how demand uncertainty and capital constraint affect retailer’s integrated ordering and pricing policies towards seasonal products. The retailer with capital constraint is normalized to be with zero capital endowment while it can be financed by an external bank. The problems are studied under a low and high demand uncertainty scenario, respectively. Results show that when demand uncertainty level is relatively low, the retailer faced with demand uncertainty always sets a lower price than the riskless one, while its order quantity may be smaller or larger than the riskless retailer’s which depends on the level of market size. When adding a capital constraint, the retailer will strictly prefer a higher price but smaller quantity policy. However, in a high demand uncertainty scenario, the impacts are more intricate. The retailer faced with demand uncertainty will always order a larger quantity than the riskless one if demand uncertainty level is high enough (above a critical value, while the capital-constrained retailer is likely to set a lower price than the well-funded one when demand uncertainty level falls within a specific interval. Therefore, it can be further concluded that the impact of capital constraint on the retailer’s pricing decision can be influenced by different demand uncertainty levels.

Comments on two American justice decisions founded on ALARA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehler, M.C.

1996-01-01

The role of the ALARA principle in the American justice is considered as a very important part of the law in evolution. The first decision called 'James decision' was the case of a worker who received a dose under the dose limit and was agreed in his demand. The second one,'Three Miles Island decision', was to refuse the ALARA principle as a norm because it would consider that the justice is more able to pilot a nuclear power plant than competent authorities. These two examples show that the ALARA principle must stay an operational guide and not a legal norm of precautions susceptible to impose sanctions by justice. (N.C.)

Hydrological indications of aeolian salts in mid-latitude deserts of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

soils in low-latitude deserts, but is less common in the aeolian sediments from the ... indicating the chemistry of aeolian salts and the associated parent brines may ... erosion, deposition and other processes on sediment properties will bias the ...

Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

OpenAIRE

Browning, Martin

1999-01-01

In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

What are the decision criteria of an energy policy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daures, Pierre

2014-04-01

The author analyses and comments the determining factors of an energy policy. The first issue is to match supply and demand. He outlines why demand is difficult to control. As far as supply is concerned, several scales must be taken into account, notably a time scale (differences between base energies and intermittent energies) and a geographical scale (mass production and local production). Other determining factors are security of energy supply, preservation of the local environment, impact on climate, costs and prices, competitiveness of national companies, and the management of risks. The author then discusses how to take a decision, how to arbitrate between these factors as decisions are important and have long-lasting effects, as calculations on the long term raise the issue of future actualisation, as externalities must be integrated and valorised, and as an energy policy must set clear objectives and be aimed at the common good

Integrating Dynamic Pricing and Replenishment Decisions Under Supply Capacity Uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Qi Feng

2010-01-01

This paper examines an integrated decision-making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply, which are often studied separately in the literature. Our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand. Instead, the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values: a reorder point and a target safety stock. Under this policy, a positive order is issued if and...

Strategies to increase demand for maternal health services in resource-limited settings: challenges to be addressed.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Elmusharaf, Khalifa

2015-09-01

Universal health access will not be achieved unless women are cared for in their own communities and are empowered to take decisions about their own health in a supportive environment. This will only be achieved by community-based demand side interventions for maternal health access. In this review article, we highlight three common strategies to increase demand-side barriers to maternal healthcare access and identify the main challenges that still need to be addressed for these strategies to be effective.

Beryllium-10 concentrations in water samples of high northern latitudes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strobl, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Schulz, V.; Baumann, S.; Mangini, A. [Heidelberger Akademie der Wissenschaften, Heildelberg (Germany); Kubik, P.W. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1997-09-01

{sup 10}Be concentrations in the water column of high northern latitudes were not available so far. We present different {sup 10}Be profiles from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea, the Arctic Ocean, and the Laptev Sea. (author) 3 fig., 3 refs.

The impact of principles-based versus rules-based accounting standards on auditors' motivations and evidence demands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peytcheva, M.; Majoor, G.C.M. (Barbara); Wright, A.M.

2014-01-01

Auditing research has investigated the effects of different accounting standards on auditors' decisions to constrain aggressive reporting by clients. Missing from this literature is evidence on how the type of accounting standard influences auditors' cognitive motivations and demand for audit

Assessing long-term effects of demand response policies in wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepeda, Mauricio; Saguan, Marcelo

2014-05-01

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term issues in electricity markets in the presence of demand response development. Different policies have been implemented around the world aiming to develop demand response potential. Externalities, in particular the CO_2 externality, have been one of the key elements in the debate on the effectiveness of different policies regarding demand response development. Policy makers have several options to deal with this externality. The most direct one is to correct the externality by setting a CO_2 price at a level that corresponds to the cost to society of the corresponding CO_2 emissions. One alternative solution could be to subsidize carbon-free technologies as demand response. In this paper we examine potential long-term impacts of these two policies. We rely on a long-term market simulation model that characterizes expansion decisions in a competitive regime. We test for each policy two different scenarios regarding the possibility of internalization of the CO_2 externality. The results show that differences in development policies affect both investments and social costs in the wholesale electricity market and confirm previous findings that a market-driven development of demand response with the internalization of the CO_2 externality is the most efficient approach. (authors)

The Occurrence of Small-scale Irregularities in the Mid-latitude Ionosphere from SuperDARN HF Radar Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Baker, J. B.; Maimaiti, M.; Oksavik, K.; Erickson, P. J.; Scales, W.; Eltrass, A.

2017-12-01

The mid-latitude radars of the SuperDARN network routinely observe backscatter from nighttime decameter-scale F region irregularities at latitudes well equatorward of the auroral boundary. This Sub-Auroral Ionospheric Scatter (SAIS) is strongly distinguished from auroral and SAPS backscatter by low Doppler velocities ( tens m/s) and stable, long-lived ( hours) occurrence in discrete events that are extended in both latitude and longitude. Statistical and event studies of SAIS with the SuperDARN radars indicate that the subauroral F region ionosphere is replete with irregularities during events, at least poleward of the 50° Λ horizon of the North American mid-latitude radars, and that radar observation of SAIS backscatter is then primarily limited by the magnetic aspect condition. Joint experiments with incoherent scatter radar have furnished sets of plasma measurements suitable for testing theories of plasma instability. Modeling work stimulated by the observations has explored the temperature-gradient instability (TGI) and the gradient drift instability (GDI) as possible sources of the irregularities. In this talk we review the findings on the occurrence of the SAIS category of mid-latitude F region irregularities, summarize the results of the modeling work, and discuss future research directions.