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Sample records for demand results show

  1. Children with dyslexia show cortical hyperactivation in response to increasing literacy processing demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frøydis eMorken

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This fMRI study aimed to examine how differences in literacy processing demands may affect cortical activation patterns in 11- to 12-year-old children with dyslexia as compared to children with typical reading skills. 11 children with and 18 without dyslexia were assessed using a reading paradigm based on different stages of literacy development. In the analyses, six regions showed an interaction effect between group and condition in a factorial ANOVA. These regions were selected as regions of interest for further analyses. Overall, the dyslexia group showed cortical hyperactivation compared to the typical group. The difference between the groups tended to increase with increasing processing demands. Differences in cortical activation were not reflected in in-scanner reading performance. The six regions further grouped into three patterns, which are discussed in terms of processing demands, compensatory mechanisms, orthography and contextual facilitation. We conclude that the observed hyperactivation is chiefly a result of compensatory activity, modulated by other factors.

  2. Energy demand and supply prompts record results for Canadian companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    The Canadian energy industry has shown consistent growth in recent years. This trend is expected to continue due high energy prices resulting from concerns regarding energy supply and increased demand for energy. The 2005 annual survey by Pricewaterhouse Coopers states that Canadian energy sectors have seen average revenues grow by 12.4 per cent from $934 million to $1.05 billion for conventional companies and by 30.5 per cent from $285 million to $372 million for income trusts. The survey provides a summary of Canada's energy industry, including crude oil, natural gas, oil and gas services, oil sands and electricity. The financial and operating information of the top 100 Canadian public oil and gas companies is also summarized, along with 31 oil and gas income trusts. The survey found that crude oil prices were influenced by price volatility and record highs in 2004. Price volatility was due to global political tensions, increased demand from China, India and the United States and lower crude supplies in the United States. Production of Canadian crude, including conventional, synthetic crude, heavy crude, natural gas and natural gas from liquids continued to increase in 2004. A strong pricing environment will likely continue, according to industry expectations, due to political instability in the Middle East and OPEC's tight crude supply strategy. Strong pricing is expected to enhance natural gas economics and promote increased capital investment and production. In 2004, the oil and gas service industry drilled a record 21,593 wells in Western Canada and a record 28,630 drilling permits will be issued. In 2004, there was also a strong demand for field services and improvements in many manufacturing firms. Production from Canadian oil sands in 2004 was over 1 million barrels per day. An estimated 174 billion barrels of oil lie within the oil sands, making Canada the second largest country in terms of global proven crude oil reserves. Several oil sands projects have

  3. Demand and willingness-to-pay for bed nets in Tanzania: results from a choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingrich, Chris D; Ricotta, Emily; Kahwa, Amos; Kahabuka, Catherine; Koenker, Hannah

    2017-07-14

    Universal coverage campaigns for long-lasting insecticide-treated nets do not always reach the goal of one net for every two household members, and even when ownership of at least one net per household is high, many households may not own enough nets. The retail market provides these households options for replacing or increasing the number of nets they own with products that best fit their needs since a variety of net shapes, sizes, and colours are available. Hence, it is important to understand the factors affecting private net demand. This study explores private demand for nets in Tanzania using a discrete choice experiment. The experiment provides participants the option to buy nets with their own money, and thus should prove more accurate than a hypothetical survey of net preferences. Nearly 800 participants sampled in two regions showed an overall strong demand for nets, with 40% choosing to buy a net across all seven combinations of net prices and characteristics such as size, shape, and insecticide treatment. Only 8% of all participants chose not to buy a single net. A key factor influencing demand was whether a participant's household currently owned sufficient nets for all members, with rural participants showing lower net coverage and greater demand than urban participants. Both poor and less poor households showed strong evidence of making purchase decisions based on more than price alone. Mean willingness-to-pay values for a net started at US$1.10 and grew by US$0.50-1.40 for various attributes such as rectangular shape, large size, and insecticide treatment. The impact of price on demand was negative but small, with elasticity values between -0.25 and -0.45. The results suggest that private demand for nets in Tanzania could potentially supplement future coverage campaigns. Net manufacturers and retailers should advertise and promote consumers' preferred net attributes to improve sales and further expand net access and coverage. To overcome household

  4. Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

    2006-01-01

    This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

  5. MODELING OF THE PROCESS OF FORMATION OF INDIVIDUAL MARKETING DEMAND: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND GENERALIZATION OF THE PRECEDING CORRESPONDING RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly V. Korotkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the modeling of series-STI formation of individual market demand. The analysis, and then sum-of three well-known inmarketing models, which exhaust the currentlyknown approaches is revised. The article shows that all three models have a signifi cant difference in the number of stages and terminology. The obtained results are the basis for the developmentof the author’s model of gradual development of demand - «need - desire - requirement -demand» or abbreviated as «model NDRD» and can be considered as a contribution to the methodology of study a demand.

  6. Cognitive and collaborative demands of freight conductor activities: results and implications of a cognitive task analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-31

    This report presents the results of a cognitive task analysis (CTA) that examined the cognitive and collaborative demands placed on conductors, as well as the knowledge and skills that experienced conductors have developed that enable them to operate...

  7. The demand factors for cesareans in Portugal – some preliminary results

    OpenAIRE

    Tavares, Aida Isabel; Rocha, Tania

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this work is to determine the demand factors for cesareans in Portugal. This work is exploratory and preliminary. Data is aggregated in NUTSII , for the period 2002-10. The number of cesareans performed is count data which requires the estimation of this panel data by a negative binomial with fixed effects. The main result is the evidence that there may be induced demand for cesareans in Portugal. Further research is needed.

  8. Results of a massive experiment on virtual currency endowments and money demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Živić

    Full Text Available We use a 575,000-subject, 28-day experiment to investigate monetary policy in a virtual setting. The experiment tests the effect of virtual currency endowments on player retention and virtual currency demand. An increase in endowments of a virtual currency should lower the demand for the currency in the short run. However, in the long run, we would expect money demand to rise in response to inflation in the virtual world. We test for this behavior in a virtual field experiment in the football management game Top11. 575,000 players were selected at random and allocated to different "shards" or versions of the world. The shards differed only in terms of the initial money endowment offered to new players. Money demand was observed for 28 days as players used real money to purchase additional virtual currency. The results indicate that player money purchases were significantly higher in the shards where higher endowments were given. This suggests that a positive change in the money supply in a virtual context leads to inflation and increased money demand, and does so much more quickly than in real-world economies. Differences between virtual and real currency behavior will become more interesting as virtual currency becomes a bigger part of the real economy.

  9. Results of a massive experiment on virtual currency endowments and money demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Živić, Nenad; Andjelković, Igor; Özden, Tolga; Dekić, Milovan; Castronova, Edward

    2017-01-01

    We use a 575,000-subject, 28-day experiment to investigate monetary policy in a virtual setting. The experiment tests the effect of virtual currency endowments on player retention and virtual currency demand. An increase in endowments of a virtual currency should lower the demand for the currency in the short run. However, in the long run, we would expect money demand to rise in response to inflation in the virtual world. We test for this behavior in a virtual field experiment in the football management game Top11. 575,000 players were selected at random and allocated to different "shards" or versions of the world. The shards differed only in terms of the initial money endowment offered to new players. Money demand was observed for 28 days as players used real money to purchase additional virtual currency. The results indicate that player money purchases were significantly higher in the shards where higher endowments were given. This suggests that a positive change in the money supply in a virtual context leads to inflation and increased money demand, and does so much more quickly than in real-world economies. Differences between virtual and real currency behavior will become more interesting as virtual currency becomes a bigger part of the real economy.

  10. The effect of perceived risks on the demand for vaccination: results from a discrete choice experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Z Sadique

    Full Text Available The demand for vaccination against infectious diseases involves a choice between vaccinating and not vaccinating, in which there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of each option. The aim of this paper is to investigate these trade-offs and to estimate how the perceived prevalence and severity of both the disease against which the vaccine is given and any vaccine associated adverse events (VAAE might affect demand. A discrete choice experiment (DCE was used to elicit stated preferences from a representative sample of 369 U.K. mothers of children below 5 years of age, for three hypothetical vaccines. Cost was included as an attribute, which enabled estimation of the willingness to pay for different vaccines having differing levels of the probability of occurrence and severity of both the infection and VAAE. The results suggest that the severity of the health effects associated with both the diseases and VAAEs exert an important influence on the demand for vaccination, whereas the probability of these events occurring was not a significant predictor. This has important implications for public health policy, which has tended to focus on the probability of these health effects as the main influence on decision making. Our results also suggest that anticipated regrets about the consequences of making the wrong decision also exert an influence on demand.

  11. 2015 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Interim Report on Phase 1 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann; Schwartz, Peter; Berger, Michael A.; Dunn, Laurel N.; Smith, Sarah J.; Sohn, Michael D.; Aghajanzadeh, Arian; Stensson, Sofia; Szinai, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Demand response (DR) is an important resource for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient; deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and providing other customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of the available DR resource for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance the role of DR in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. As the state forges a clean energy future, the contributions of wind and solar electricity from centralized and distributed generation will fundamentally change the power grid’s operational dynamics. This transition requires careful planning to ensure sufficient capacity is available with the right characteristics – flexibility and fast response – to meet reliability needs. Illustrated is a snapshot of how net load (the difference between demand and intermittent renewables) is expected to shift. Increasing contributions from renewable generation introduces steeper ramps and a shift, into the evening, of the hours that drive capacity needs. These hours of peak capacity need are indicated by the black dots on the plots. Ultimately this study quantifies the ability and the cost of using DR resources to help meet the capacity need at these forecasted critical hours in the state.

  12. Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemenway, David; Webster, Daniel; Pierce, Glenn; Braga, Anthony A.

    2010-01-01

    A widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence is being cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. We believe the study is fatally flawed. A working paper entitled “The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas” outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. We believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by 1 of its own authors’ prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy. PMID:20724672

  13. 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berger, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dunn, Laurel N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Aruab [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stensson, Sofia [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Szinai, Julie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walter, Travis [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKenzie, Lucy [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Lavin, Luke [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Schneiderman, Brendan [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Mileva, Ana [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Cutter, Eric [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Olson, Arne [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Bode, Josh [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Ciccone, Adriana [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Jain, Ankit [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States)

    2017-03-01

    California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, to defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?

  14. Testing Delays Resulting in Increased Identification Accuracy in Line-Ups and Show-Ups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekle, Dawn J.

    1997-01-01

    Investigated time delays (immediate, two-three days, one week) between viewing a staged theft and attempting an eyewitness identification. Compared lineups to one-person showups in a laboratory analogue involving 412 subjects. Results show that across all time delays, participants maintained a higher identification accuracy with the showup…

  15. The Demand Side Response to Multi-zone Tariffs. Consumer Test Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Olszewski

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI is a technologically advanced solution currently implemented by the most innovative distribution system operators. ENERGA-OPERATOR SA set about preparing for smart metering implementation in 2010. So far the company has installed over 400,000 meters in its area, and plans to install a further 450,000 in 2015. Kalisz, the first fully AMI-covered city in Poland, was chosen for an in-depth analysis of the system. In particular, a consumer test was conducted there with the intention of answering the question about the strength of the demand side response to multi-zone tariffs and power reduction. Conclusions from the year-long test show the demand side response to multi-zone tariffs – i.e. the maximum temporary percentage reduction of energy consumption in the time zone with the tariff raised by a min. of 80% – stays within the 5–15% range. In the case of power reduction (the maximum temporary reduction of energy consumption in the time zone when the power available to a household is limited to 1 kW – the demand side response stays within the 10–30% range. An additional effect of tariff diversification and smart metering is a reduction in electricity consumption by 1–4% on working days (i.e. this is the effect of either the consumption reduction or shifting it to weekends. During the test energy consumers were subjected to both price incentives and education. Due to the fact that it is difficult to separate the effects of education and tariff structures, the company plans to continue the research related to verifying the effectiveness of individual activation tools in reducing electricity consumption by households.

  16. Energy supply and demand result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. Report submitted by the energy supply and demand trend investigation committee; 1995 nendo energy jukyu jisseki to tanki tenbo. Energy jukyu doko chosa iinkai hokoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes the energy demand and supply result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. The business condition in Japan is regaining some brightness. While the net GDP growth has stayed at 0.9%, the domestic primary energy supply has increased by 2.9% and the final energy consumption by 3.2% over the previous year, respectively. The energy consumption has increased by 3.7% with the background of increase in production levels in the industrial department in material industries induced by external demand. The consumer department showed as high growth as 5.1% centering on household room heating due to cold winter. The business and transportation departments presented an increase of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Sharp growth of 3.0% was shown in the net GDP during January through March, 1996, having the net GDP growth rate for fiscal 1995 escaped from zero growth that has lasted three years. The recovery of the domestic business condition is moving gradually centering on the consumer demand, wherein the point to be focused from now on is how much the recovery can compensate for decline in the public demand and reduction in the external demand. Attention is given on path of the business condition recovery and future trends in energy demand under the situation of risen consumption tax and deregulated oil business. 42 figs., 73 tabs.

  17. Dynamic Demand-Capacity Balancing for Air Traffic Management Using Constraint-Based Local Search: First Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshid Hassani Bijarbooneh

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Using constraint-based local search, we effectively model and efficiently solve the problem of balancing the traffic demands on portions of the European airspace while ensuring that their capacity constraints are satisfied. The traffic demand of a portion of airspace is the hourly number of flights planned to enter it, and its capacity is the upper bound on this number under which air-traffic controllers can work. Currently, the only form of demand-capacity balancing we allow is ground holding, that is the changing of the take-off times of not yet airborne flights. Experiments with projected European flight plans of the year 2030 show that already this first form of demand-capacity balancing is feasible without incurring too much total delay and that it can lead to a significantly better demand-capacity balance.

  18. Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030. Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Joode, J.; Oezdemir, Oe.

    2010-01-01

    The fact that depletion of indigenous gas production increases gas import dependency is widely known and accepted. However, there is considerable less attention for the implications of indigenous resource depletion for the provision of seasonal flexibility. The traditionally largest source of seasonal flexibility in Europe is indigenous gas production, mainly based in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. With the depletion of indigenous sources the market increasingly needs to rely on other sources for seasonal flexibility, such as gas storage facilities. We investigate the future need for gas storage as a source for seasonal flexibility provision using a dynamic gas market model (GASTALE) in which different potential sources for seasonal flexibility - gas production, imports via pipeline, LNG imports and storage facilities - compete with each other in a market-based environment. The inclusion of seasonal flexibility properties in a gas market model allows a more complex analysis of seasonal flexibility issues than previously documented in literature. This is demonstrated in an analysis of the future demand for gas storage in northwestern Europe until 2030. Our results indicate that there is substantial need for additional gas storage facilities and thus supports current project proposals for new investment in gas storage facilities. (author)

  19. Demand-driven care and hospital choice. Dutch health policy toward demand-driven care: results from a survey into hospital choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lako, Christiaan J; Rosenau, Pauline

    2009-03-01

    In the Netherlands, current policy opinion emphasizes demand-driven health care. Central to this model is the view, advocated by some Dutch health policy makers, that patients should be encouraged to be aware of and make use of health quality and health outcomes information in making personal health care provider choices. The success of the new health care system in the Netherlands is premised on this being the case. After a literature review and description of the new Dutch health care system, the adequacy of this demand-driven health policy is tested. The data from a July 2005, self-administered questionnaire survey of 409 patients (response rate of 94%) as to how they choose a hospital are presented. Results indicate that most patients did not choose by actively employing available quality and outcome information. They were, rather, referred by their general practitioner. Hospital choice is highly related to the importance a patient attaches to his or her physician's opinion about a hospital. Some patients indicated that their hospital choice was affected by the reputation of the hospital, by the distance they lived from the hospital, etc. but physician's advice was, by far, the most important factor. Policy consequences are important; the assumptions underlying the demand-driven model of patient health provider choice are inadequate to explain the pattern of observed responses. An alternative, more adequate model is required, one that takes into account the patient's confidence in physician referral and advice.

  20. Costs to Automate Demand Response - Taxonomy and Results from Field Studies and Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schetrit, Oren [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Cheung, Iris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Li, Becky Z [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-07-31

    During the past decade, the technology to automate demand response (DR) in buildings and industrial facilities has advanced significantly. Automation allows rapid, repeatable, reliable operation. This study focuses on costs for DR automation in commercial buildings with some discussion on residential buildings and industrial facilities. DR automation technology relies on numerous components, including communication systems, hardware and software gateways, standards-based messaging protocols, controls and integration platforms, and measurement and telemetry systems. This report compares cost data from several DR automation programs and pilot projects, evaluates trends in the cost per unit of DR and kilowatts (kW) available from automated systems, and applies a standard naming convention and classification or taxonomy for system elements. Median costs for the 56 installed automated DR systems studied here are about $200/kW. The deviation around this median is large with costs in some cases being an order of magnitude great or less than the median. This wide range is a result of variations in system age, size of load reduction, sophistication, and type of equipment included in cost analysis. The costs to automate fast DR systems for ancillary services are not fully analyzed in this report because additional research is needed to determine the total cost to install, operate, and maintain these systems. However, recent research suggests that they could be developed at costs similar to those of existing hot-summer DR automation systems. This report considers installation and configuration costs and does include the costs of owning and operating DR automation systems. Future analysis of the latter costs should include the costs to the building or facility manager costs as well as utility or third party program manager cost.

  1. Comb-push ultrasound shear elastography of breast masses: initial results show promise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Max; Mehrmohammadi, Mohammad; Song, Pengfei; Meixner, Duane D; Fazzio, Robert T; Pruthi, Sandhya; Whaley, Dana H; Chen, Shigao; Fatemi, Mostafa; Alizad, Azra

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the performance of Comb-push Ultrasound Shear Elastography (CUSE) for classification of breast masses. CUSE is an ultrasound-based quantitative two-dimensional shear wave elasticity imaging technique, which utilizes multiple laterally distributed acoustic radiation force (ARF) beams to simultaneously excite the tissue and induce shear waves. Female patients who were categorized as having suspicious breast masses underwent CUSE evaluations prior to biopsy. An elasticity estimate within the breast mass was obtained from the CUSE shear wave speed map. Elasticity estimates of various types of benign and malignant masses were compared with biopsy results. Fifty-four female patients with suspicious breast masses from our ongoing study are presented. Our cohort included 31 malignant and 23 benign breast masses. Our results indicate that the mean shear wave speed was significantly higher in malignant masses (6 ± 1.58 m/s) in comparison to benign masses (3.65 ± 1.36 m/s). Therefore, the stiffness of the mass quantified by the Young's modulus is significantly higher in malignant masses. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the optimal cut-off value of 83 kPa yields 87.10% sensitivity, 82.61% specificity, and 0.88 for the area under the curve (AUC). CUSE has the potential for clinical utility as a quantitative diagnostic imaging tool adjunct to B-mode ultrasound for differentiation of malignant and benign breast masses.

  2. Comb-push ultrasound shear elastography of breast masses: initial results show promise.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Denis

    Full Text Available To evaluate the performance of Comb-push Ultrasound Shear Elastography (CUSE for classification of breast masses.CUSE is an ultrasound-based quantitative two-dimensional shear wave elasticity imaging technique, which utilizes multiple laterally distributed acoustic radiation force (ARF beams to simultaneously excite the tissue and induce shear waves. Female patients who were categorized as having suspicious breast masses underwent CUSE evaluations prior to biopsy. An elasticity estimate within the breast mass was obtained from the CUSE shear wave speed map. Elasticity estimates of various types of benign and malignant masses were compared with biopsy results.Fifty-four female patients with suspicious breast masses from our ongoing study are presented. Our cohort included 31 malignant and 23 benign breast masses. Our results indicate that the mean shear wave speed was significantly higher in malignant masses (6 ± 1.58 m/s in comparison to benign masses (3.65 ± 1.36 m/s. Therefore, the stiffness of the mass quantified by the Young's modulus is significantly higher in malignant masses. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC, the optimal cut-off value of 83 kPa yields 87.10% sensitivity, 82.61% specificity, and 0.88 for the area under the curve (AUC.CUSE has the potential for clinical utility as a quantitative diagnostic imaging tool adjunct to B-mode ultrasound for differentiation of malignant and benign breast masses.

  3. AREVA: Operating performance shows distinct improvement; Results heavily impacted by the cost of remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 results illustrate the progress AREVA made in 2015 and open up favorable prospects for 2016 and the following years in view of its fundamentals. The group's competitiveness plan had a very positive impact on its costs and cash, despite the heavy net loss situation which continues and in a market environment that remained difficult in 2015. Half of this loss of 2 billion Euro is due to additional provisions for OL3 and half to provisions for restructuring and impairment related to market conditions. Concerning the group's liquidity, 2016 is funded and the capital increase which will be launched in the coming months will enable AREVA to gradually regain the group's positive profile. A new phase awaits the Group in 2016 with clarity and confidence in the implementation of the restructuring announced in 2015 and in particular the autonomy of AREVA NP and the creation of New AREVA

  4. Possible Demands for Eastern Hardwoods Resulting from Harvest Restrictions in the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Philip A. Araman

    1993-01-01

    Efforts to conserve the habitat of the northern spotted owl in the Pacific Northwest have placed softwood timber supplies under a great deal of pressure and driven up the price of softwood lumber. Hardwoods could meet some of the demand for products that have previously been manufactured from softwood species. Hardwood structural lumber may soon become an economically...

  5. Stability and Change in the Exposure to Demands and Control: Results of the Longitudinal SMASH Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lange, A. de; Taris, T.; Kompier, M.; Houtman, I.L.D.; Bongers, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    In 1979 Robert Karasek introduced the job demand-contol (DC model). Through its simplicity and applicability this model has gained “substantial face value” in the theory and practice of occupational health psychology and epidemiology. According to the DC model a psychosocial work environment can be

  6. Better Water Demand and Pipe Description Improve the Distribution Network Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Distribution system modeling simplifies pipe network in skeletonization and simulates the flow and water quality by using generalized water demand patterns. While widely used, the approach has not been examined fully on how it impacts the modeling fidelity. This study intends to ...

  7. Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodarzi, Mustafa; Abedi-Koupai, Jahangir; Heidarpour, Manouchehr

    2018-04-15

    In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m 3 /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  8. Supply and Demand for Improved Sanitation: Results from Randomized Pricing Experiments in Rural Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peletz, Rachel; Cock-Esteb, Alicea; Ysenburg, Dorothea; Haji, Salim; Khush, Ranjiv; Dupas, Pascaline

    2017-06-20

    Improving access to sanitation is a global public health priority. Sufficient consumer demand is required for sanitation coverage to expand through private provision. To measure consumer demand for hygienic latrine platform products in rural Tanzania, we conducted a randomized, voucher-based real-money sales trial with 1638 households with unimproved latrines. We also evaluated multiple supply chain options to determine the costs of supplying latrine platform products to rural households. For concrete latrine SanPlats, 60% of households were willing to pay US$0.48 and 10% of households were willing to pay US$4.05, yet the average cost of supplying the SanPlat to households was US$7.51. Similarly, for plastic sanitary platforms, willingness-to-pay (WTP) dropped from almost 60% at a price of US$1.43 to 5% at a price of US$12.29, compared to an average supply cost of US$23.28. WTP was not significantly different between villages that had participated in the National Sanitation Campaign and those that had not. Randomized informational interventions, including hygiene data-sharing and peer-based exposure to latrine platform products, had minimal effects on WTP. In conclusion, current household demand for latrine platform products is too low to achieve national goals for improved sanitation coverage through fully commercial distribution.

  9. Proceedings of the CERI North American natural gas conference and Calgary energy show 2005 : walking the tightrope : supply and demand in delicate balance. CD ROM ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This conference addressed issues concerning current and immediate supplies of natural gas in the North American marketplace, with particular reference to supply and demand growth. Alberta's resource potential as well as its position in the North American market were reviewed, along with the decline of onshore resources in the United States. Exogenous future supplies were reviewed, as well as supplies in Arctic Canada and Alaska. Gas hydrates were discussed as a possible fuel for the future. North American demand issues were examined, including the Alaska Gas Pipeline and Mexico's natural gas potential. Pricing issues were also reviewed along with issues concerning natural gas end-users such as wholesalers and offshore manufacturers of petro-chemical feedstocks. The volatility of the natural gas market was discussed with reference to future gas prices. The conference featured 24 presentations, of which 5 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  10. The Job Demands-Job Control Model and absence behaviour : results of a 3-year longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.G.W.; Nijhuis, F.J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical results of earlier studies only marginally supported the relevance of Karasek's Job Demands-Job Control Model for absence behaviour. Since longitudinal studies with respect to these relations were largely lacking, a four-wave panel study was carried out using data from 1755 male employees

  11. Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

  12. Maintained benefits and improved survival of dynamic cardiomyoplasty by activity-rest stimulation: 5-year results of the Italian trial on "demand" dynamic cardiomyoplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatelli, Gianluca; Barbiero, Mario; Rigatelli, Giorgio; Riccardi, Roberto; Cobelli, Franco; Cotogni, Angelo; Bandello, Attilio; Carraro, Ugo

    2003-01-01

    Latissimus dorsi (LD) muscular degeneration caused by continuous electrical stimulation has been the main cause of the poor results of dynamic cardiomyoplasty (DCMP) and its exclusion from the recent international guidelines on heart failure. To avoid full transformation of the LD and to improve results, a new stimulation protocol was developed; fewer impulses per day are delivered, providing the LD wrap with daily periods of rest ("demand" stimulation), based on a heart rate cut-off. The aim of this work is to report the results at 5 years of follow-up of the Italian Trial of Demand Dynamic Cardiomyoplasty and to discuss their impact on the destiny of this type of cardiac assistance. Twelve patients with dilated myocardiopathy (M/F=11/1, mean age 58.2+/-5.8 years, sinus rhythm/atrial fibrillation=11/1) were submitted during the period 1993-1996 to DCMP and at different intervals to demand protocol. Clinical, echocardiographic, mechanographic and cardiac invasive assessments were scheduled before initiating the demand protocol and during the follow-up at 0, 6 and every 12 months. The mean duration of follow-up was 40.2+/-13.8 months (range 18-64). There were no perioperative deaths. The demand stimulation protocol showed a decrease in 5 years in New York Health Association (NYHA) class (3.17+/-0.38-1.67+/-0.77, P=0.0001), an improvement of left ventricular ejection fraction (22.6+/-4.38-32.0+/-7.0, Pactuarial survival of 83.3% (one patient was switched to heart transplantation programme due to clinical worsening and another one died of massive pulmonary embolism). Demand DCMP maintains over time LD muscular properties, enhances clinical benefits and improves survival of DCMP, thus reopening the debate whether this type of treatment should be considered in patients with end-stage heart failure.

  13. Test Results for Caustic Demand Measurements on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doll, Stephanie R.; Bolling, Stacie D.

    2016-01-01

    Caustic demand testing is used to determine the necessary amount of caustic required to neutralize species present in the Hanford tank waste and obtain a target molarity of free hydroxide for tank corrosion control. The presence and quantity of hydroxide-consuming analytes are just as important in determining the caustic demand as is the amount of free hydroxide present. No single data point can accurately predict whether a satisfactory hydroxide level is being met, as it is dependent on multiple factors (e.g., free hydroxide, buffers, amphoteric metal hydroxides, bicarbonate, etc.). This enclosure contains the caustic demand, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), polarized light microscopy (PLM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis for the tank 241-AX-101 (AX-101) and 241-AX-103 (AX-103) samples. The work was completed to fulfill a customer request outlined in the test plan, WRPS-1505529, ''Test Plan and Procedure for Caustic Demand Testing on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples.'' The work results will provide a baseline to support planned retrieval of AX-101 and AX-103.

  14. Test Results for Caustic Demand Measurements on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, Stephanie R. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA (United States); Bolling, Stacie D. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-07-14

    Caustic demand testing is used to determine the necessary amount of caustic required to neutralize species present in the Hanford tank waste and obtain a target molarity of free hydroxide for tank corrosion control. The presence and quantity of hydroxide-consuming analytes are just as important in determining the caustic demand as is the amount of free hydroxide present. No single data point can accurately predict whether a satisfactory hydroxide level is being met, as it is dependent on multiple factors (e.g., free hydroxide, buffers, amphoteric metal hydroxides, bicarbonate, etc.). This enclosure contains the caustic demand, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), polarized light microscopy (PLM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis for the tank 241-AX-101 (AX-101) and 241-AX-103 (AX-103) samples. The work was completed to fulfill a customer request outlined in the test plan, WRPS-1505529, “Test Plan and Procedure for Caustic Demand Testing on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples.” The work results will provide a baseline to support planned retrieval of AX-101 and AX-103.

  15. Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, C.J.; Johnston, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of plausible errors in population, employment, fuel price, and income projections is conducted using the travel demand and emissions models of the Sacramento, CA, USA, region for their transportation plan. The results of the analyses indicate that plausible error ranges for household income and fuel prices are not a significant source of uncertainty with respect to the region's travel demand and emissions projections. However, plausible errors in population and employment projections (within approximately one standard deviation) may result in the region's transportation plan not meeting the conformity test for nitrogens of oxides (NO x ) in the year 2005 (i.e., an approximately 16% probability). This outcome is also possible in the year 2015 but less likely (within approximately two standard deviations or a 2.5% probability). Errors in socioeconomic projections are only one of many sources of error in travel demand and emissions models. These results have several policy implications. First, regions like Sacramento that meet their conformity tests by a very small margin should rethink new highway investment and consider contingency transportation plans that incorporate more aggressive emissions reduction policies. Second, regional transportation planning agencies should conduct sensitivity analyses as part of their conformity analysis to make explicit significant uncertainties in the methods and to identify the probability of their transportation plan not conforming. Third, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should clarify the interpretation of ''demonstrate'' conformity of transportation plans; that is, specify the level of certainty that it considers a sufficient demonstration of conformity. (author)

  16. Demands placed on waste package performance testing and modeling by some general results on reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chesnut, D.A.

    1991-09-01

    Waste packages for a US nuclear waste repository are required to provide reasonable assurance of maintaining substantially complete containment of radionuclides for 300 to 1000 years after closure. The waiting time to failure for complex failure processes affecting engineered or manufactured systems is often found to be an exponentially-distributed random variable. Assuming that this simple distribution can be used to describe the behavior of a hypothetical single barrier waste package, calculations presented in this paper show that the mean time to failure (the only parameter needed to completely specify an exponential distribution) would have to be more than 10 7 years in order to provide reasonable assurance of meeting this requirement. With two independent barriers, each would need to have a mean time to failure of only 10 5 years to provide the same reliability. Other examples illustrate how multiple barriers can provide a strategy for not only achieving but demonstrating regulatory compliance

  17. Operating results and experience and operating regimes in changing demands of energy world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobza, L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, there are stated some operating results and experience obtained from trial operation of Temelin NPP. In Europe, Temelin NPP is presently one of the latest implemented projects of the series of VVER 1000 nuclear units with proven V-320 pressurized water reactor. The distinction between Temelin NPP and original project lays mainly in supply of nuclear fuel and in I and C systems delivered by Westinghouse Company. Temelin NPP has passed through commissioning period and trial operation. The main goal of the trial operation was to meet the requirements of section 2, par. 4, point b) of Decree No. 106/98 Sb. and verification of project parameters and stability of operation, and the situation leading to violation of safety functions fulfilment according to Pre-operational Safety Report should not occur. The integral part of trial operation assessment was also successful performing of determined monitoring programmes, first refuelling and performing of prescribed tests and operational inspections. Simultaneously, first experience was obtained with nuclear fuel; providing of ancillary services; reliability of important components; operation of turbine-generator 1000 MW; chemical regime; influence to environment; and quality of contractors. As safety is the most important indicator, it can be stated that: no facts which would lead to decreasing of safety systems operability have been detected; no facts which would lead to negative affecting of barriers against fading the radioactivity into both working areas and environment, have been detected; good condition of fire safety has been continuously documented; requirements of limits for releasing waste water into environment have been continuously complied with; requirements of limits for releasing radioactive substances (in gaseous and/or liquid state) into environment have been continuously complied with. From the operation regimes point of view is clear, that it would be suitable for the power plant if the

  18. Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; Xie, Yulong; Kraucunas, Ian

    2018-01-01

    Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

  19. When Age and Culture Interact in an Easy and Yet Cognitively Demanding Task: Older Adults, But Not Younger Adults, Showed the Expected Cultural Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Jinkyung; Huang, Chih-Mao; Park, Denise C

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between age and culture can have various implications for cognition as age represents the effect of biological processes whereas culture represents the effect of sustaining experiences. Nevertheless, their interaction has rarely been examined. Thus, based on the fact that Asians are more intuitive in reasoning than Americans, we examined how this cultural difference might interact with age. Young and old participants from the US and Singapore performed a categorization task (living vs. non-living). To measure their reliance on intuition, we manipulated the typicality of targets (animate vs. inanimate). We showed that (1) RTs for inanimate organisms were slower than RTs for animate organisms (atypicality cost), (2) the cost was particularly large for older adults and (3) an age × culture interaction was observed such that cultural differences in the cost (Singaporeans > Americans) was found only among older participants. Further, we demonstrated that the age effect was associated with cognitive function and the culture effect among older adults was associated with cultural values. Finally, a moderated mediation analysis suggests that cognitive function and cultural values interact with each other in order to jointly influence one's cognition.

  20. When Age and Culture Interact in an Easy and Yet Cognitively Demanding Task: Older Adults, But Not Younger Adults, Showed the Expected Cultural Differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Jinkyung; Huang, Chih-Mao; Park, Denise C.

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between age and culture can have various implications for cognition as age represents the effect of biological processes whereas culture represents the effect of sustaining experiences. Nevertheless, their interaction has rarely been examined. Thus, based on the fact that Asians are more intuitive in reasoning than Americans, we examined how this cultural difference might interact with age. Young and old participants from the US and Singapore performed a categorization task (living vs. non-living). To measure their reliance on intuition, we manipulated the typicality of targets (animate vs. inanimate). We showed that (1) RTs for inanimate organisms were slower than RTs for animate organisms (atypicality cost), (2) the cost was particularly large for older adults and (3) an age × culture interaction was observed such that cultural differences in the cost (Singaporeans > Americans) was found only among older participants. Further, we demonstrated that the age effect was associated with cognitive function and the culture effect among older adults was associated with cultural values. Finally, a moderated mediation analysis suggests that cognitive function and cultural values interact with each other in order to jointly influence one’s cognition. PMID:28396649

  1. Increasing access to institutional deliveries using demand and supply side incentives: early results from a quasi-experimental study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serwadda David

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Geographical inaccessibility, lack of transport, and financial burdens are some of the demand side constraints to maternal health services in Uganda, while supply side problems include poor quality services related to unmotivated health workers and inadequate supplies. Most public health interventions in Uganda have addressed only selected supply side issues, and universities have focused their efforts on providing maternal services at tertiary hospitals. To demonstrate how reforms at Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS can lead to making systemic changes that can improve maternal health services, a demand and supply side strategy was developed by working with local communities and national stakeholders. Methods This quasi-experimental trial is conducted in two districts in Eastern Uganda. The supply side component includes health worker refresher training and additions of minimal drugs and supplies, whereas the demand side component involves vouchers given to pregnant women for motorcycle transport and the payment to service providers for antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care. The trial is ongoing, but early analysis from routine health information systems on the number of services used is presented. Results Motorcyclists in the community organized themselves to accept vouchers in exchange for transport for antenatal care, deliveries and postnatal care, and have become actively involved in ensuring that women obtain care. Increases in antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care were demonstrated, with the number of safe deliveries in the intervention area immediately jumping from Conclusions Transport and service vouchers appear to be a viable strategy for rapidly increasing maternal care. MakCHS can design strategies together with stakeholders using a learning-by-doing approach to take advantage of community resources.

  2. Experimental results showing the internal three-component velocity field and outlet temperature contours for a model gas turbine combustor

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyers, BC

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc. All rights reserved ISABE-2011-1129 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS SHOWING THE INTERNAL THREE-COMPONENT VELOCITY FIELD AND OUTLET TEMPERATURE CONTOURS FOR A MODEL GAS TURBINE COMBUSTOR BC Meyers*, GC... identifier c Position identifier F Fuel i Index L (Combustor) Liner OP Orifice plate Introduction There are often inconsistencies when comparing experimental and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations for gas turbine combustors [1...

  3. High quantitative job demands and low coworker support as risk factors for neck pain: Results of a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariëns, G.A.M.; Bongers, P.M.; Hoogendoorn, W.E.; Houtman, I.L.D.; Wal, G. van der; Mechelen, W. van

    2001-01-01

    Study Design. A 3-year prospective cohort study among 1334 workers was conducted. Objective. To determine whether the work-related psychosocial factors of quantitative job demands, conflicting job demands, skill discretion, decision authority, supervisor support, coworker support, and job security

  4. Oilsands for the USA : while environmental groups ask for a shutdown, new study shows significant resulting economic benefits in America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, D.L.

    2010-01-01

    The United States is beginning to appreciate the value of having massive oil sands resources located in relatively close proximity to their northern border. This article discussed a recent study conducted by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) to assess the impact of Canada's oil sands development on the economy of the United States. The study forecasted that the demand for oil sands-related goods and services from American companies will continue to increase as the industry expands. The top national-level goods and services impacts will be derived from increases in manufacturing; finance; insurance; real estate; and professional, scientific, and technical services. Accommodation and food services in the United States will also benefit from the growth of the oil sands industry. The United States may not risk pushing ahead with strict carbon-cutting legislation targeting the oil sands when policy-makers consider the potential impacts of Canada selling its resources to China. 1 fig.

  5. The composition of demand for newly launched vaccines: results from the pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccine introductions in Ethiopia and Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B Adam; Kidane, Teklay; Chirwa, Geoffrey; Tesfaye, Neghist; Prescott, Marta R; Scotney, Soleine T; Valle, Moussa; Abebe, Sintayehu; Tambuli, Adija; Malewezi, Bridget; Mohammed, Tahir; Kobayashi, Emily; Wootton, Emily; Wong, Renee; Dosani, Rahima; Subramaniam, Hamsa; Joseph, Jessica; Yavuz, Elif; Apple, Aliza; Le Tallec, Yann; Kang'ethe, Alice

    2016-06-01

    Understanding post-launch demand for new vaccines can help countries maximize the benefits of immunization programmes. In particular, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) should ensure adequate resource planning with regards to stock consumption and service delivery for new vaccines, whereas global suppliers must produce enough vaccines to meet demand. If a country underestimates the number of children seeking vaccination, a stock-out of commodities will create missed opportunities for saving lives. We describe the post-launch demand for the first dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV1) in Ethiopia and Malawi and the first dose of rotavirus vaccine (Rota1) in Malawi, with focus on the new birth cohort and the 'backlog cohort', comprised of older children who are still eligible for vaccination at the time of launch. PCV1 and Rota1 uptake were compared with the demand for the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1), a routine immunization that targets the same age group and immunization schedule. In the first year, the total demand for PCV1 was 37% greater than that of Penta1 in Ethiopia and 59% greater in Malawi. In the first 6 months, the demand of Rota1 was only 5.9% greater than Penta1 demand in Malawi. Over the first three post-introduction months, 70.7% of PCV1 demand in Ethiopia and 71.5% of demand in Malawi came from children in the backlog cohort, whereas only 28.0% of Rota1 demand in Malawi was from the backlog cohort. The composition of demand was impacted by time elapsed since vaccine introduction and age restrictions. Evidence suggests that countries' plans should account for the impact of backlog demand, especially in the first 3 months post-introduction. LMICs should request for higher stock volumes when compared with routine needs, plan social mobilization activities to reach the backlog cohort and allocate human resources and cold chain capacity to accommodate high demand following vaccine introduction. © The Author 2016. Published by

  6. ISO New England: Results of Ancillary Service Pilot Programs, Alternative Technology Regulation Pilot Program and Demand Response Reserves Pilot Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowell, Jon [ISO New England, Holyoke, MA (United States); Yoshimura, Henry [ISO New England, Holyoke, MA (United States)

    2011-10-26

    This PowerPoint presentation compares performance of pilot program assets and generation resources in alternative technology regulation and demand response reserves for flywheels and residential electric thermal storage.

  7. Update on Canadian energy supply and demand report, 1998-2025 : summary of results from Round One

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-10-05

    The National Energy Board is required to periodically review the outlook of Canadian energy supply and demand for major energy commodities including oil, natural gas and electricity. The National Energy Board undertook a first round of consultations between April 15 and May 1, to seek input regarding Canadian energy supply and demand to 2025. The topics discussed at Round One of these consultations were: (1) oil prices, (2) macroeconomics, (3) energy demand, (4) electricity, (5) coal, (6) crude oil and bitumen resources, (7) natural gas and natural gas liquids, (8) alternative and renewable fuels, (9) emissions, and (10) cases and sensitivities. The comments received on each topic and the Board`s recommendations were presented. A second round of consultation will be held early in 1999.

  8. Reception of Talent Shows in Denmark: First Results from a Trans-National Audience Study of a Global Format Genre

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pia Majbritt

    This paper will discuss the methodology and present the preliminary findings of the Danish part of a trans-national, comparative audience study of the musical talent show genre undertaken in Denmark, Finland, Germany and Great Britain in Spring 2013. Within the international business model...... of format adaptation, the musical talent show genre has been particularly successful in crossing cultural borders. Formats such as Idols, X Factor and Voice have sold to a large variety of countries, covering all continents. Such global reach inevitably raises the question of the genre’s audience appeal......; to what degree its reach has to do with a universal appeal inherent in the genre and/or the innovative character of individual formats, and to what degree its global success is due to local broadcasters’ ability to successfully adapt the formats to local audience tastes. A consensus has developed...

  9. Demand response evaluation and forecasting — Methods and results from the EcoGrid EU experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Emil Mahler; Pinson, Pierre; Leimgruber, Fabian

    2017-01-01

    Understanding electricity consumers participating in new demand response schemes is important for investment decisions and the design and operation of electricity markets. Important metrics include peak response, time to peak response, energy delivered, ramping, and how the response changes...... with respect to external conditions. Such characteristics dictate the services DR is capable of offering, like primary frequency reserves, peak load shaving, and system balancing. In this paper, we develop methods to characterise price-responsive demand from the EcoGrid EU demonstration in a way that was bid...... into a real-time market. EcoGrid EU is a smart grid experiment with 1900 residential customers who are equipped with smart meters and automated devices reacting to five-minute electricity pricing. Customers are grouped and analysed according to the manufacturer that controlled devices. A number of advanced...

  10. Predicted coal production trends in Kentucky: The results of available coal resources, coal quality demands, and regulatory factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, W.D.

    1993-01-01

    Many factors affect the viability of regional coal production markets including (1) coal quality and recoverable tonnage, (2) coal mining cost, (3) the regional and time varying patterns of coal demand growth, (4) regulations and other institutional constraints that affect coal demand and utilization, and (5) the regional array of coal transport modes and rates. This analysis integrates these factors into an assessment of coal production prospects (separately) for eastern and western Kentucky coal producing counties for the decade of the 90's. The integration indicates that eastern Kentucky coal production will peak and begin to decline by the end of the decade whereas western Kentucky coal production will continue to grow. No single factor explains these trends. There is plenty of available minable coal. The combination of changes in environmental regulations, some increase in coal mining costs, and the mining-out of low sulfur reserves are the main factors that account for the production trends

  11. Bilateral femoral neck fractures resulting from pregnancy-associated osteoporosis showed bone marrow edema on magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasahara, Kyoko; Kita, Nobuyuki; Kawasaki, Taku; Morisaki, Shinsuke; Yomo, Hiroko; Murakami, Takashi

    2017-06-01

    Femoral neck fractures resulting from pregnancy-associated osteoporosis is a rare condition. Herein, we report an undoubted case of pregnancy-associated osteoporosis in a 38-year-old primiparous patient with pre-existing anorexia nervosa who suffered bilateral femoral neck fractures in the third trimester and early post-partum period. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed femoral neck fractures as well as diffuse marrow edema involving both femoral heads, which are considered under ordinary circumstances as characteristic imaging findings of transient osteoporosis of the hip. Based on our experience, we propose that pregnancy-associated osteoporosis might be present in femoral neck fractures attributed to transient osteoporosis of the hip in pregnancy. Conversely, bone status should be carefully and accurately estimated in cases of potential transient osteoporosis of the hip in pregnancy to reduce future fracture risk. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  12. The Demand for Disaster Microinsurance for Small Businesses in Urban Slums: The Results of Surveys in Three Indian Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ronak; Walker, Garrett; Bhatt, Mihir; Pathak, Vishal

    2017-03-01

    Small informal businesses make up the core markets for many poor urban communities, providing essential goods, services, and livelihoods. Many of these communities and businesses exist in hazardous locations. In most cases, these business owners do not have access to proper coping mechanisms including risk transfer and lack resilience to shocks. Access to risk-transfer in the form of insurance for these small businesses is extremely limited. This demand survey is the first phase of an intervention to test disaster microinsurance for these businesses. Previous research has examined the demand for and value of microinsurance to protect poor households but not micro- and medium-sized informal urban businesses. This study investigates knowledge about and demand for microinsurance among small informal business owners in three different cities of India. Survey of all informal business owners (n=4919) identified through purposive sampling of the most vulnerable in three proposed study sites: Guwahati in Assam (n=1622), Puri in Odisha (n=1551) and Cuddalore in Tamil Nadu (n=1746). Our findings reflect that while small business owners largely did not know about disaster microinsurance, after describing it, a vast majority wanted to subscribe to such a program. Without it, they often rely on personal savings, forgo basic necessities, or take out costly loans that trap them in debt to cope with disasters. This research supports the need for more experiments on actual adoption patterns, feasibility studies, and innovative trial programs by governments, non-governmental organizations, and insurance providers.

  13. Mars Methane at Gale Crater Shows Strong Seasonal Cycle: Updated Results from TLS-SAM on Curiosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, C. R.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Atreya, S. K.; Flesch, G.; Malespin, C.; McKay, C.; Martinez, G.; Moores, J.; Smith, C. L.; Martin-Torres, F. J.; Gomez-Elvira, J.; Zorzano, M. P.; Wong, M. H.; Trainer, M. G.; Eigenbrode, J. L.; Glavin, D. P.; Steele, A.; Archer, D., Jr.; Sutter, B.; Coll, P. J.; Freissinet, C.; Meslin, P. Y.; Pavlov, A.; Keymeulen, D.; Christensen, L. E.; Gough, R. V.; Schwenzer, S. P.; Navarro-Gonzalez, R.; Pla-García, J.; Rafkin, S. C.; Vicente-Retortillo, Á.; Kahanpää, H.; Viudez-Moreiras, D.; Smith, M. D.; Harri, A. M.; Genzer, M.; Hassler, D.; Lemmon, M. T.; Crisp, J. A.; Zurek, R. W.; Vasavada, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    In situ measurements of atmospheric methane have been made over a 5-year period at Gale Crater on Mars using the Tunable Laser Spectrometer (TLS) instrument in the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) suite on the Curiosity rover. We report two important observations: (i) a background level of mean value of 0.41 ±0.11 (2sem) that is about 5 times lower than some model predictions based on generation from UV degradation of micro-meteorites or interplanetary dust delivered to the martian surface; (ii) "spikes" of elevated levels of 7 ppbv attributed to episodic releases from small local sources, probably to the north of Gale crater1. Reports of plumes, patches or episodic releases of methane in the Martian atmosphere have to date eluded explanation in part because of their lack of repeatability in time or location. Our in situ measurements of the background methane levels exhibit a strong, repeatable seasonal variability. The amplitude of the observed seasonal cycle is 3 times greater than both that expected from the annual sublimation and freezing of polar carbon dioxide and that expected from methane production from ultraviolet (UV) degradation of exogenously-delivered surface material. The observed large seasonal variation in the background, and sporadic observations of higher pulses of 7 ppbv appear consistent with localized small sources of methane release from Martian surface reservoirs that may be occurring throughout the planet. We will present our updated data set, correlations of Mars methane with various other measurements from SAM, REMS, RAD and ChemCam instruments on Curiosity, as well as empirical models of UV surface insolation, and provide preliminary interpretation of results. 1 "Mars Methane Detection and Variability at Gale Crater", C. R. Webster et al., Science, 347, 415-417 (2015) and references therein. The research described here was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the

  14. Comprehensive monitoring system - essential tool to show the results of the energy audit and voluntary agreement programmes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Without visible results political support to an energy efficiency programme will dissolve in a few years. Therefore high-quality monitoring and reporting systems are essential to maintain a long-term commitment. Both in Finnish Energy Audit Programme (EAP), began in 1992, and in Voluntary Agreement Scheme (VA), began in 1997, bottom-up monitoring systems have been in place almost since the beginning. These policy measures and their monitoring systems are integrated. For the EAP monitoring system data is collected in three phases: subsidies granted; the energy auditing volumes in different sectors submitted EA reports; proposed measures and saving potentials. VA annual reporting; status of implementation of the proposed measures in EA reports and implementing rate for saving potentials. In VA scheme the companies and communities report annually on their energy consumption and on energy efficiency measures they have implemented or have decided to implement. Information on energy savings in energy units and energy costs as well as the required investment is reported in connection to the presented measures. The collected data is based on engineering calculations by the energy auditors. Since the companies have no incentives to submit exaggerated savings, the reported savings are equal to those figures the companies have used as criteria when deciding on the implementation of the measures. By 2005 these two policy measures have generated about 7 TWh annual savings, representing over 2 % of Finland's total energy end-use. In relation to the magnitude of savings brought in daylight, the investment on monitoring has really paid back.

  15. Increasing access to institutional deliveries using demand and supply side incentives: early results from a quasi-experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekirapa-Kiracho, Elizabeth; Waiswa, Peter; Rahman, M Hafizur; Makumbi, Fred; Kiwanuka, Noah; Okui, Olico; Rutebemberwa, Elizeus; Bua, John; Mutebi, Aloysius; Nalwadda, Gorette; Serwadda, David; Pariyo, George W; Peters, David H

    2011-03-09

    Geographical inaccessibility, lack of transport, and financial burdens are some of the demand side constraints to maternal health services in Uganda, while supply side problems include poor quality services related to unmotivated health workers and inadequate supplies. Most public health interventions in Uganda have addressed only selected supply side issues, and universities have focused their efforts on providing maternal services at tertiary hospitals. To demonstrate how reforms at Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS) can lead to making systemic changes that can improve maternal health services, a demand and supply side strategy was developed by working with local communities and national stakeholders. This quasi-experimental trial is conducted in two districts in Eastern Uganda. The supply side component includes health worker refresher training and additions of minimal drugs and supplies, whereas the demand side component involves vouchers given to pregnant women for motorcycle transport and the payment to service providers for antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care. The trial is ongoing, but early analysis from routine health information systems on the number of services used is presented. Motorcyclists in the community organized themselves to accept vouchers in exchange for transport for antenatal care, deliveries and postnatal care, and have become actively involved in ensuring that women obtain care. Increases in antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care were demonstrated, with the number of safe deliveries in the intervention area immediately jumping from Voucher revenues have been used to obtain needed supplies to improve quality and to pay health workers, ensuring their availability at a time when workloads are increasing. Transport and service vouchers appear to be a viable strategy for rapidly increasing maternal care. MakCHS can design strategies together with stakeholders using a learning-by-doing approach to take advantage of

  16. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  17. Migration and Tourism Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This study considers the relationship between immigration and Portuguese tourism demand for the period 1995-2008, using a dynamic panel data approach. The findings indicate that Portuguese tourism increased significantly during the period in accordance with the values expected for a developed country. The regression results show that income, shock of immigration, population, and geographical distance between Portugal and countries of origin are the main determinants of Portuguese tourism.

  18. Television Advertising and Soda Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Liu, Yizao; Zhu, Chen

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the effects of television advertising on consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks using a random coefficients logit model (BLP) with household and advertising data from seven U.S. cities over a three year period. We find that advertising decreases the price elasticity of demand, indicating that advertising plays predominantly a persuasive, therefore anti-competitive role in this market. Further results show that brand spillover effects are significant and that measuring ...

  19. Crucial market demands and company competencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjarne; Stacey, Julia

    1999-01-01

    More and more, it is acknowledged that a company's success depends on it being capable of complying with the market's demands and wishes. It is, however, not always obvious, how the individual company will be able to meet the market's demands. A recent MAPP study has investigated this topic...... and identified a number of central market demands, which Danish food companies are faced with. Moreover, the study has identified which competencies are required to meet these demands and have also looked at howsuccessful companies structure some of these competencies. The study takes its point of departure...... in a literature review of MAPP's research. Results show that there are 27 central market demands, retail and consumer demands that Danish companies ought to be able to live up to. The study has also identified which competencies food companies must possess to be able to meet market's demands. Results from three...

  20. Store-directed price promotions and communications strategies improve healthier food supply and demand: impact results from a randomized controlled, Baltimore City store-intervention trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budd, Nadine; Jeffries, Jayne K; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Kharmats, Anna; McDermott, Ann Yelmokas; Gittelsohn, Joel

    2017-12-01

    Small food store interventions show promise to increase healthy food access in under-resourced areas. However, none have tested the impact of price discounts on healthy food supply and demand. We tested the impact of store-directed price discounts and communications strategies, separately and combined, on the stocking, sales and prices of healthier foods and on storeowner psychosocial factors. Factorial design randomized controlled trial. Twenty-four corner stores in low-income neighbourhoods of Baltimore City, MD, USA. Stores were randomized to pricing intervention, communications intervention, combined pricing and communications intervention, or control. Stores that received the pricing intervention were given a 10-30 % price discount by wholesalers on selected healthier food items during the 6-month trial. Communications stores received visual and interactive materials to promote healthy items, including signage, taste tests and refrigerators. All interventions showed significantly increased stock of promoted foods v. There was a significant treatment effect for daily unit sales of healthy snacks (β=6·4, 95 % CI 0·9, 11·9) and prices of healthy staple foods (β=-0·49, 95 % CI -0·90, -0·03) for the combined group v. control, but not for other intervention groups. There were no significant intervention effects on storeowner psychosocial factors. All interventions led to increased stock of healthier foods. The combined intervention was effective in increasing sales of healthier snacks, even though discounts on snacks were not passed to the consumer. Experimental research in small stores is needed to understand the mechanisms by which store-directed price promotions can increase healthy food supply and demand.

  1. Dynamic Analysis of Money Demand Function: Case of Turkey*

    OpenAIRE

    doğru, bülent

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the dynamic determinants of money demand function and the long-run and short-run relationships between money demand, income and nominal interest rates are examined in Turkey for the time period 1980-2012. In particular we estimate a dynamic specification of a log money demand function based on Keynesian liquidity preference theory to ascertain the relevant elasticity of money demand. The empirical results of the study show that in Turkey inflation, exchange rate and money deman...

  2. Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

  3. On energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.

    1977-01-01

    Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

  4. In demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, B. [Bridgestone Ltd. (United Kingdom)

    2005-11-01

    The paper explains how good relationships can help alleviate potential tyre shortages. Demand for large dump truck tyres (largely for China) has increased by 50% within 12 months. Bridgestone's manufacturing plants are operating at maximum capacity. The company supplies tyres to all vehicles at Scottish Coal's opencast coal mines. Its Tyre Management System (TMS) supplied free of charge to customers helps maximise tyre life and minimise downtime from data on pressure, tread and general conditions fed into the hand-held TMS computer. 3 photos.

  5. A demanding market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, M.

    1997-01-01

    The article relates to the oil and natural gas market, and it gives a survey of proved reserves at the end of 1996 worldwide. The long term trend of increasing world energy demand has seen a major rise during 1996 when global consumption grew by 3%. But worldwide demand, excluding the Former Soviet Union, shows this figure increasing further to 3.7% for the whole of last year according to statistics. 3 figs

  6. Maximum power demand cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biondi, L.

    1998-01-01

    The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it

  7. Transgene silencing of the Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome mutation results in a reversible bone phenotype, whereas resveratrol treatment does not show overall beneficial effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandgren, Charlotte; Nasser, Hasina Abdul; McKenna, Tomás

    2015-01-01

    model to study the possibility of recovering from HGPS bone disease upon silencing of the HGPS mutation, and the potential benefits from treatment with resveratrol. We show that complete silencing of the transgenic expression of progerin normalized bone morphology and mineralization already after 7...... weeks. The improvements included lower frequencies of rib fractures and callus formation, an increased number of osteocytes in remodeled bone, and normalized dentinogenesis. The beneficial effects from resveratrol treatment were less significant and to a large extent similar to mice treated with sucrose...... alone. However, the reversal of the dental phenotype of overgrown and laterally displaced lower incisors in HGPS mice could be attributed to resveratrol. Our results indicate that the HGPS bone defects were reversible upon suppressed transgenic expression and suggest that treatments targeting aberrant...

  8. Could High Mental Demands at Work Offset the Adverse Association Between Social Isolation and Cognitive Functioning? Results of the Population-Based LIFE-Adult-Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Francisca S; Schroeter, Matthias L; Witte, A Veronica; Engel, Christoph; Löffler, Markus; Thiery, Joachim; Villringer, Arno; Luck, Tobias; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

    2017-11-01

    The study investigated whether high mental demands at work, which have shown to promote a good cognitive functioning in old age, could offset the adverse association between social isolation and cognitive functioning. Based on data from the population-based LIFE-Adult-Study, the association between cognitive functioning (Verbal Fluency Test, Trail Making Test B) and social isolation (Lubben Social Network Scale) as well as mental demands at work (O*NET database) was analyzed via linear regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, and sampling weights. Cognitive functioning was significantly lower in socially isolated individuals and in individuals working in low mental demands jobs-even in old age after retirement and even after taking into account the educational level. An interaction effect suggested stronger effects of mental demands at work in socially isolated than nonisolated individuals. The findings suggest that working in high mental-demand jobs could offset the adverse association between social isolation and cognitive functioning. Further research should evaluate how interventions that target social isolation and enhance mentally demanding activities promote a good cognitive functioning in old age. Copyright © 2017 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Sizewell: UK power demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Sizewell Inquiry was about whether the next power stations to be built in the UK should be nuclear or coal and, if nuclear, PWRs or AGRs. During the period of the Inquiry forecasts of demand for electricity were low. Now, however, it seems that the forecast demand is much increased. This uncertainty in demand and the wide regional variations are examined in some detail. Facts and figures on electricity sales (area by area) are presented. Also the minutes of supply lost per consumer per year. These show that security of supply is also a problem. It is also shown that the way electricity is used has changed. Whilst electricity generation has been changing to large-scale, centralised power stations the demand patterns may make smaller scale, quickly-constructed units more sensible. The questions considered at the Sizewell Inquiry may, indeed, no longer be the right ones. (UK)

  10. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  11. Prospects of an alternative treatment against Trypanosoma cruzi based on abietic acid derivatives show promising results in Balb/c mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmo, F; Guardia, J J; Marin, C; Messouri, I; Rosales, M J; Urbanová, K; Chayboun, I; Chahboun, R; Alvarez-Manzaneda, E J; Sánchez-Moreno, M

    2015-01-07

    Chagas disease, caused by the protozoa parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is an example of extended parasitaemia with unmet medical needs. Current treatments based on old-featured benznidazole (Bz) and nifurtimox are expensive and do not fulfil the criteria of effectiveness, and a lack of toxicity devoid to modern drugs. In this work, a group of abietic acid derivatives that are chemically stable and well characterised were introduced as candidates for the treatment of Chagas disease. In vitro and in vivo assays were performed in order to test the effectiveness of these compounds. Finally, those which showed the best activity underwent additional studies in order to elucidate the possible mechanism of action. In vitro results indicated that some compounds have low toxicity (i.e. >150 μM, against Vero cell) combined with high efficacy (i.e. <20 μM) against some forms of T. cruzi. Further in vivo studies on mice models confirmed the expectations of improvements in infected mice. In vivo tests on the acute phase gave parasitaemia inhibition values higher those of Bz, and a remarkable decrease in the reactivation of parasitaemia was found in the chronic phase after immunosuppression of the mice treated with one of the compounds. The morphological alterations found in treated parasites with our derivatives confirmed extensive damage; energetic metabolism disturbances were also registered by (1)H NMR. The demonstrated in vivo activity and low toxicity, together with the use of affordable starting products and the lack of synthetic complexity, put these abietic acid derivatives in a remarkable position toward the development of an anti-Chagasic agent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. Rapamycin and chloroquine: the in vitro and in vivo effects of autophagy-modifying drugs show promising results in valosin containing protein multisystem proteinopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angèle Nalbandian

    Full Text Available Mutations in the valosin containing protein (VCP gene cause hereditary Inclusion body myopathy (hIBM associated with Paget disease of bone (PDB, frontotemporal dementia (FTD, more recently termed multisystem proteinopathy (MSP. Affected individuals exhibit scapular winging and die from progressive muscle weakness, and cardiac and respiratory failure, typically in their 40s to 50s. Histologically, patients show the presence of rimmed vacuoles and TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43-positive large ubiquitinated inclusion bodies in the muscles. We have generated a VCPR155H/+ mouse model which recapitulates the disease phenotype and impaired autophagy typically observed in patients with VCP disease. Autophagy-modifying agents, such as rapamycin and chloroquine, at pharmacological doses have previously shown to alter the autophagic flux. Herein, we report results of administration of rapamycin, a specific inhibitor of the mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR signaling pathway, and chloroquine, a lysosomal inhibitor which reverses autophagy by accumulating in lysosomes, responsible for blocking autophagy in 20-month old VCPR155H/+ mice. Rapamycin-treated mice demonstrated significant improvement in muscle performance, quadriceps histological analysis, and rescue of ubiquitin, and TDP-43 pathology and defective autophagy as indicated by decreased protein expression levels of LC3-I/II, p62/SQSTM1, optineurin and inhibiting the mTORC1 substrates. Conversely, chloroquine-treated VCPR155H/+ mice revealed progressive muscle weakness, cytoplasmic accumulation of TDP-43, ubiquitin-positive inclusion bodies and increased LC3-I/II, p62/SQSTM1, and optineurin expression levels. Our in vitro patient myoblasts studies treated with rapamycin demonstrated an overall improvement in the autophagy markers. Targeting the mTOR pathway ameliorates an increasing list of disorders, and these findings suggest that VCP disease and related neurodegenerative multisystem

  13. Measuring Money Demand Function in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan, Shahid; Ali, Umbreen; Dawood, Mamoon

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the factors such as interest rate, GDP per capita, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, urban and rural population to determine money demand function for Pakistan over the period from 1972-2013. We use ARDL Bound Testing approach in order to test long run relation between money demand and its factors whereas both long and short run coefficients will be found using similar approach. The results show that real interest rate exerts significant and negative effect upon money dem...

  14. Characteristics and trends of China's oil demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Haibo

    2010-09-15

    Based on historical analysis of Chinese oil consumption from 1980 to 2008, the author develops an econometric modeling - Medium and Long-term Chinese Oil Demand Forecast Model. Results shows that, Chinese oil demand will be 632 MT in 2020 without consideration of substitutions, and the annual growth rate will be 4.2%, much slower than before. The demand ratio of diesel to gasoline will decline, while kerosene demand will grow faster. If new energy vehicles (NGV and electric vehicles, etc.) develop rapidly and industrial fuel-oil demand is substituted effectively, about 23 million tons of oil could be saved.

  15. Assessing predictors of contraceptive use and demand for family planning services in underserved areas of Punjab province in Pakistan: results of a cross-sectional baseline survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmat, Syed Khurram; Ali, Moazzam; Ishaque, Muhammad; Mustafa, Ghulam; Hameed, Waqas; Khan, Omar Farooq; Abbas, Ghazunfer; Temmerman, Marleen; Munroe, Erik

    2015-03-28

    Although Pakistan was one of the first countries in Asia to launch national family planning programs, current modern contraceptive use stands at only 26% with a method mix skewed toward short-acting and permanent methods. As part of a multiyear operational research study, a baseline survey was conducted to understand the predictors of contraceptive use and demand for family planning services in underserved areas of Punjab province in Pakistan. This paper presents the baseline survey results; the outcomes of the intervention will be presented in a separate paper after the study has been completed. A cross-sectional baseline household survey was conducted with randomly selected 3,998 married women of reproductive age (MWRA) in the Chakwal, Mianwali, and Bhakkar districts of Punjab. The data were analyzed on SPSS 17.0 using simple descriptive and logistic regression. Most of the women had low socio-economic status and were younger than 30 years of age. Four-fifths of the women consulted private sector health facilities for reproductive health services; proximity, availability of services, and good reputation of the provider were the main predicators for choosing the facilities. Husbands were reported as the key decision maker regarding health-seeking and family planning uptake. Overall, the current contraceptive use ranged from 17% to 21% across the districts: condoms and female sterilization were widely used methods. Woman's age, husband's education, wealth quintiles, spousal communication, location of last delivery, and favorable attitude toward contraception have an association with current contraceptive use. Unmet need for contraception was 40.6%, 36.6%, and 31.9% in Chakwal, Mianwali, and Bhakkar, respectively. Notably, more than one fifth of the women across the districts expressed willingness to use quality, affordable long-term family planning services in the future. The baseline results highlight the need for quality, affordable long-term family planning

  16. Storytelling Slide Shows to Improve Diabetes and High Blood Pressure Knowledge and Self-Efficacy: Three-Year Results among Community Dwelling Older African Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertera, Elizabeth M.

    2014-01-01

    This study combined the African American tradition of oral storytelling with the Hispanic medium of "Fotonovelas." A staggered pretest posttest control group design was used to evaluate four Storytelling Slide Shows on health that featured community members. A total of 212 participants were recruited for the intervention and 217 for the…

  17. The skeletal trauma resulting from a fatal B.A.S.E jump: A case study showing the impact of landing feet-first under extreme vertical deceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowbotham, Samantha K; Blau, Soren; Hislop-Jambrich, Jacqueline

    2018-05-01

    The term 'B.A.S.E jump' refers to jumping from a building, antenna, span (i.e., bridge) or earth (i.e., cliff) structure, and parachuting to the ground. There are numerous hazards associated with B.A.S.E jumps which often result in injury and, occasionally, fatality. This case report details the skeletal trauma resulting from a fatal B.A.S.E jump in Australia. In this case, the jumper impacted the ground from a fall of 439m in a feet-first landing position, as a result of a partially deployed parachute, under extreme vertical deceleration. Skeletal trauma was analyzed using full-body post mortem computed tomography (PMCT) and contextual information related to the circumstances of the jump as reported by the Coroner. Trauma to 61 skeletal elements indicates the primary impact was to the feet (i.e., feet-first landing), followed by an anterior impact to the body (i.e., fall forwards). Details of the individual fracture morphologies indicate the various forces and biomechanics involved in this fall event. This case presents the types of fractures that result from a B.A.S.E jump, and highlights the value of using PMCT and coronial data as tools to augment skeletal trauma interpretations. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Showing results? An analysis of the perceptions of internal and external stakeholders of the public performance communication by the Belgian and Dutch Railways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gelders, Dave; Galetzka, Mirjam; Verckens, Jan Pieter; Seydel, E.R.

    2008-01-01

    Information Quarterly, 15: 153–156). In Belgium and the Netherlands, one Performance measurement and communicating about it with the broader public is not self-evident if one looks at public services organizations (Hernon, 1998 P. Hernon, The government performance and results act. Government

  19. Cells exposed to a huntingtin fragment containing an expanded polyglutamine tract show no sign of ion channel formation: results arguing against the ion channel hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørremølle, Anne; Grunnet, Morten; Hasholt, Lis

    2003-01-01

    Ion channels formed by expanded polyglutamine tracts have been proposed to play an important role in the pathological processes leading to neurodegeneration in Huntington's disease and other CAG repeat diseases. We tested the capacity of a huntingtin fragment containing an expanded polyglutamine...... in the currents recorded in any of the two expression systems, indicating no changes in ion channel activity. The results therefore argue against the proposed hypothesis of expanded polyglutamines forming ion channels....

  20. How often do German children and adolescents show signs of common mental health problems? Results from different methodological approaches – a cross-sectional study

    OpenAIRE

    Sauer, Kristin; Barkmann, Claus; Klasen, Fionna; Bullinger, Monika; Glaeske, Gerd; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike

    2014-01-01

    Background Child and adolescent mental health problems are ubiquitous and burdensome. Their impact on functional disability, the high rates of accompanying medical illnesses and the potential to last until adulthood make them a major public health issue. While methodological factors cause variability of the results from epidemiological studies, there is a lack of prevalence rates of mental health problems in children and adolescents according to ICD-10 criteria from nationally representative ...

  1. Empty polyetheretherketone (PEEK) cages in anterior cervical diskectomy and fusion (ACDF) show slow radiographic fusion that reduces clinical improvement: results from the prospective multicenter "PIERCE-PEEK" study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suess, Olaf; Schomaker, Martin; Cabraja, Mario; Danne, Marco; Kombos, Theodoros; Hanna, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Anterior cervical diskectomy and fusion (ACDF) is a well-established surgical treatment for radiculopathy and myelopathy. Previous studies showed that empty PEEK cages have lower radiographic fusion rates, but the clinical relevance remains unclear. This paper's aim is to provide high-quality evidence on the outcomes of ACDF with empty PEEK cages and on the relevance of radiographic fusion for clinical outcomes. This large prospective multicenter clinical trial performed single-level ACDF with empty PEEK cages on patients with cervical radiculopathy or myelopathy. The main clinical outcomes were VAS (0-10) for pain and NDI (0-100) for functioning. Radiographic fusion was evaluated by two investigators for three different aspects. The median (range) improvement of the VAS pain score was: 3 (1-6) at 6 months, 3 (2-8) at 12 months, and 4 (2-8) at 18 months. The median (range) improvement of the NDI score was: 12 (2-34) at 6 months, 18 (4-46) at 12 months, and 22 (2-44) at 18 months. Complete radiographic fusion was reached by 126 patients (43%) at 6 months, 214 patients (73%) at 12 months, and 241 patients (83%) at 18 months. Radiographic fusion was a highly significant ( p  PEEK cages is slow and insufficient. Lack of complete radiographic fusion leads to less improvement of pain and disability. We recommend against using empty uncoated pure PEEK cages in ACDF. ISRCTN42774128. Retrospectively registered 14 April 2009.

  2. [First results of a German second opinion program show high patient satisfaction and large discrepancies between initial therapy recommendations and second opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyerstraß, Jan; Prediger, Barbara; Neugebauer, Edmund; Pieper, Dawid

    2018-02-23

    Although legally anchored, there are no empirical results from German second opinion programs. In this study, various aspects within a population of a second opinion program are examined. In this study patients were analyzed who sought a second opinion in the period from August 2011 to December 2016. Differences in patient characteristics, differentiated by agreement of first and second opinion, were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Patients' satisfaction and quality of life were examined one, three and six months after obtaining the second opinion. In total, 1,414 patients sought a second opinion. Most frequent medical indications were the knee (38.7 %), the back (26.8 %), the hip (11.7 %), and the shoulder (10.2 %). Except for the indication (p=0.035), no patient characteristic had influence on the conformation of the second opinion. Approximately two out of three initial recommendations were not confirmed by the specialists. 89 % of the patients were satisfied or very satisfied with the second opinion and the service offered. The second opinion offers patients the opportunity to seek an additional independent medical opinion and thus provide support for decision making. Further research is needed to examine the reasons for the high discrepancies between the first and second opinions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  3. Advertising media and cigarette demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Rajeev K

    2011-01-01

    Using state-level panel data for the USA spanning three decades, this research estimates the demand for cigarettes. The main contribution lies in studying the effects of cigarette advertising disaggregated across five qualitatively different groups. Results show cigarette demand to be near unit elastic, the income effects to be generally insignificant and border price effects and habit effects to be significant. Regarding advertising effects, aggregate cigarette advertising has a negative effect on smoking. Important differences across advertising media emerge when cigarette advertising is disaggregated. The effects of public entertainment and Internet cigarette advertising are stronger than those of other media. Anti-smoking messages accompanying print cigarette advertising seem relatively more effective. Implications for smoking control policy are discussed.

  4. Dissolved Organic In Natural and Polluted Waters: Methodology and Results of Running Control of Chemical Oxygen Demand (cod) For The Inland and Marine Aquatic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melentyev, K. V.; Worontsov, A. M.

    Current control of dissolved organic matter in natural and waste waters is the definition traditionally of chemical oxygen demand (COD) -- one of the basic parameters of quality of water. According to the International Standard (ISO 6060), it requires not less than one hour, while in many cases the operative information about amount of dissolved organic matter in aquatic environments have importance for prevention of an emergency. The standard method is applicable to waters with meaning of COD above 30 mg O2/l and, as the chloride ion prevents, it could be difficult for assessment of organic matter in sea water. Besides it is based on dichromate oxidation of the sum of organic substances in strong acid conditions at the presence of silver and mercury, that resulted in formation toxic pollutants. Till now attempts of automation of the COD definition in aquatic system were limited, basically, to duplication of the technology submitted the above standard (automatic COD analyzers "SERES Co."-- France, or "Tsvet Co." - Russia). The system of ozone-chemiluminescence automatic control of organic matter in water (CS COD) is offered and designed. Its based on the ozone oxidation of these substances in flowing water system and measurement arising from luminescent effects. CS COD works in real time. An instrument uses for reaction the atmospheric air, doesn't require fill of reagents and doesn't make new toxic pollutants. The system was tested in laboratory, and biochemical control of organic matter in water samples gathered from the river Neva and other polluted inland water areas and basins in St. Petersburg region was fulfilled (distilled water was used as "zero" media). The results of systematization of these measurements are presented. The new special ozone generator and flowing reactor for real-time running control of different waters in natural conditions were developed, and several series of large - scale field experiments onboard research ship were provided

  5. Demand Modelling in Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chvalina

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models. 

  6. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2006-07-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  7. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2006-01-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  8. Demand forecasting and information platform in tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yue

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Information asymmetry and the bullwhip effect have been serious problems in the tourism supply chain. Based on platform theory, this paper established a mathematical model to explore the inner mechanism of a platform’s influence on stakeholders’ ability to forecast demand in tourism. Results showed that the variance of stakeholders’ demand predictions with a platform was smaller than the variance without a platform, which meant that a platform would improve predictions of demand for stakeholders. The higher information-processing ability of the platform also had other effects on demand forecasting. Research on the inner logic of the platform’s influence on stakeholders has important theoretical and realistic value. This area is worthy of further study.

  9. 2005 Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. Update of results up to 2010 - June 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    As part of the missions assigned to it by law, RTE has completed a partial update, looking ahead to 2010, of the Generation Adequacy Report on the balance between the supply and demand for electricity, originally published in October 2005. This update takes account of known developments in generation supply during the course of 2005, in particular the growth of wind farms and combined cycle projects. The basic hypotheses used to predict possible consumption levels remain the same as those employed in the previous report. The weak growth in electricity consumption observed in 2005 can be attributed to a depressed economic climate - GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2005 - mainly affecting energy intensive industries; Residential and Commercial sectors consumption went on a continuous upwards trend. A longer period of observation is required to confirm or refute any eventual change in the longer term. Whilst awaiting further information that can be used as confirmation, this update has been carried out based on scenarios R1-R2-R3 produced for the 2005 Generation Adequacy Report. On the generation side, an initial scenario referred to as 'base case supply' is designed to identify future changes in requirements compared with existing generating facilities. It only takes account of projects that are currently in the process of being built. These include mainly wind farms begun in 2005, and the re-entry into service of four fuel-oil plants. A second scenario, referred to as 'committed projects', is based on a plausible projection for the development of wind generating facilities, with 4 GW installed by 2010, and the entry into service of three combined cycle gas turbine plants by the same year, without specifying precisely which ones will be built from among the range of projects announced. Under the 'base case supply' scenario along with the 'median demand' scenario, the risk of a shortfall or loss of load occurring exceeds the acceptable

  10. Monetary Policy and Credit Demand in India and Some EMEs

    OpenAIRE

    B L Pandit; Pankaj Vashisht

    2012-01-01

    Impact of changes in policy rate of interest on demand for bank credit is examined for seven emerging market economies including India for the period 2002 to 2010. Panel data techniques are used after ruling out the presence of unit roots. The results show that when other determinants, like domestic demand pressure, export demand and impact of stock market signals are controlled for, change in policy rate of interest is an important determinant of firms’ demand for bank credit. The results ...

  11. Consumer Demand for Major Foods in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Basem Fayaad; Stanley R. Johnson; Mohamed El-Khishin

    1995-01-01

    This study provides information on the structure of the consumer demand for major foods in Egypt. The information is in the form of key parameters for consumer demand systems. The modern theory of consumer behavior is the basis for estimating systems of demand equations. These systems yield estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities. The Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LAIDS) model is applied in estimating a system of demand equations for food commodities. A full demand matrix results ...

  12. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  13. Econometric Modeling: An Application to the Demand for Electricity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical results show an inverse relationship between real appliance purchase price, the real per capita income and the demand for electricity. Also the rate of population growth rate as a proxy for electricity consumers appears to be insignificant. This reveals the clear fact that the demand for electricity is greater than ...

  14. Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Carl R.

    2009-01-01

    Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.

    2008-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse

  16. Demand side management using profile steering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerards, Marco Egbertus Theodorus; Toersche, Hermen; Hoogsteen, Gerwin; van der Klauw, Thijs; Hurink, Johann L.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    2015-01-01

    Many Demand Side Management (DSM) approaches use energy prices as steering signals. This paper shows that such steering signals may result in power quality problems and high losses. As an alternative, this paper proposes to use desired (e.g., flat) power profiles as steering signals and presents an

  17. Electricity demand in Tunisia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gam, Imen; Ben Rejeb, Jaleleddine

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the global electricity demand in Tunisia as a function of gross domestic product in constant price, the degree of urbanization, the average annual temperature, and the real electricity price per Kwh. This demand will be examined employing annual data over a period spanning almost thirty one years from 1976 to 2006. A long run relationship between the variables under consideration is determined using the Vector Autoregressive Regression. The empirical results suggest that the electricity demand in Tunisia is sensitive to its past value, any changes in gross domestic product and electricity price. The electricity price effects have a negative impact on long-run electricity consumption. However, the gross domestic product and the past value of electricity consumption have a positive effect. Moreover, the causality test reveals a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption. Our empirical findings are effective to policy makers to maintain the electricity consumption in Tunisia by using the appropriate strategy. - Highlights: ► This paper examined the electricity demand in Tunisia in the long-run. ► The empirical analysis revealed that in the long-run the electricity demand is affected by changes in its past value, GDP in constant price and real electricity price. ► There is a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption, that is to say, that the electricity price causes the consumption. ► Those results suggest that a pricing policy can be an effective instrument to rationalize the electricity consumption in Tunisia in the long-run.

  18. PREDICTING DEMAND FOR COTTON YARNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SALAS-MOLINA Francisco

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Predicting demand for fashion products is crucial for textile manufacturers. In an attempt to both avoid out-of-stocks and minimize holding costs, different forecasting techniques are used by production managers. Both linear and non-linear time-series analysis techniques are suitable options for forecasting purposes. However, demand for fashion products presents a number of particular characteristics such as short life-cycles, short selling seasons, high impulse purchasing, high volatility, low predictability, tremendous product variety and a high number of stock-keeping-units. In this paper, we focus on predicting demand for cotton yarns using a non-linear forecasting technique that has been fruitfully used in many areas, namely, random forests. To this end, we first identify a number of explanatory variables to be used as a key input to forecasting using random forests. We consider explanatory variables usually labeled either as causal variables, when some correlation is expected between them and the forecasted variable, or as time-series features, when extracted from time-related attributes such as seasonality. Next, we evaluate the predictive power of each variable by means of out-of-sample accuracy measurement. We experiment on a real data set from a textile company in Spain. The numerical results show that simple time-series features present more predictive ability than other more sophisticated explanatory variables.

  19. Demand forecasting of electricity in Indonesia with limited historical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwi Kartikasari, Mujiati; Rohmad Prayogi, Arif

    2018-03-01

    Demand forecasting of electricity is an important activity for electrical agents to know the description of electricity demand in future. Prediction of demand electricity can be done using time series models. In this paper, double moving average model, Holt’s exponential smoothing model, and grey model GM(1,1) are used to predict electricity demand in Indonesia under the condition of limited historical data. The result shows that grey model GM(1,1) has the smallest value of MAE (mean absolute error), MSE (mean squared error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error).

  20. [Psychosocial stress and disease risks in occupational life. Results of international studies on the demand-control and the effort-reward imbalance models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, J; Dragano, N

    2008-03-01

    Given the far-reaching changes of modern working life, psychosocial stress at work has received increased attention. Its influence on stress-related disease risks is analysed with the help of standardised measurements based on theoretical models. Two such models have gained special prominence in recent years, the demand-control model and the effort-reward imbalance model. The former model places its emphasis on a distinct combination of job characteristics, whereas the latter model's focus is on the imbalance between efforts spent and rewards received in turn. The predictive power of these models with respect to coronary or cardiovascular disease and depression was tested in a number of prospective epidemiological investigations. In summary, twofold elevated disease risks are observed. Effects on cardiovascular disease are particularly pronounced among men, whereas no gender differences are observed for depression. Additional evidence derived from experimental and ambulatory monitoring studies supplements this body of findings. Current scientific evidence justifies an increased awareness and assessment of these newly discovered occupational risks, in particular by occupational health professionals. Moreover, structural and interpersonal measures of stress prevention and health promotion at work are warranted, with special emphasis on gender differences.

  1. Interaction effects among multiple job demands: an examination of healthcare workers across different contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimmieson, Nerina L; Tucker, Michelle K; Walsh, Alexandra J

    2017-05-01

    Simultaneous exposure to time, cognitive, and emotional demands is a feature of the work environment for healthcare workers, yet effects of these common stressors in combination are not well established. Survey data were collected from 125 hospital employees (Sample 1, Study 1), 93 ambulance service employees (Sample 2, Study 1), and 380 aged care/disability workers (Study 2). Hierarchical multiple regressions were conducted. In Sample 1, high cognitive demand exacerbated high emotional demand on psychological strain and job burnout, whereas the negative effect of high emotional demand was not present at low cognitive demand. In Sample 2, a similar pattern between emotional demand and time demand on stress-remedial intentions was observed. In Study 2, emotional demand × time demand and time demand × cognitive demand interactions again revealed that high levels of two demands were stress-exacerbating and low levels of one demand neutralized the other. A three-way interaction on job satisfaction showed the negative impact of emotional demand was exacerbated when both time and cognitive demands were high, creating a "triple disadvantage" of job demands. The results demonstrate that reducing some job demands helps attenuate the stressful effects of other job demands on different employee outcomes.

  2. Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan

    2012-01-01

    China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.

  3. Real-Time Demand Side Management Algorithm Using Stochastic Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moses Amoasi Acquah

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A demand side management technique is deployed along with battery energy-storage systems (BESS to lower the electricity cost by mitigating the peak load of a building. Most of the existing methods rely on manual operation of the BESS, or even an elaborate building energy-management system resorting to a deterministic method that is susceptible to unforeseen growth in demand. In this study, we propose a real-time optimal operating strategy for BESS based on density demand forecast and stochastic optimization. This method takes into consideration uncertainties in demand when accounting for an optimal BESS schedule, making it robust compared to the deterministic case. The proposed method is verified and tested against existing algorithms. Data obtained from a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The results show that the proposed method is effective, even for the cases where the forecasted demand deviates from the observed demand.

  4. Uranium resources, demand and production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stipanicic, P.N.

    1985-05-01

    Estimations of the demand and production of principal uranium resource categories are presented. The estimations based on data analysis made by a joint 'NEA/IAEA Working Party on Uranium Resources' and the corresponding results are published by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in the 'Uranium Resources, Production and Demand' Known as 'Red Book'. (M.C.K.) [pt

  5. Energy demand patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y

    1984-05-01

    This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.

  6. Introducing a demand-based electricity distribution tariff in the residential sector: Demand response and customer perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartusch, Cajsa; Wallin, Fredrik; Odlare, Monica; Vassileva, Iana; Wester, Lars

    2011-01-01

    Increased demand response is essential to fully exploit the Swedish power system, which in turn is an absolute prerequisite for meeting political goals related to energy efficiency and climate change. Demand response programs are, nonetheless, still exceptional in the residential sector of the Swedish electricity market, one contributory factor being lack of knowledge about the extent of the potential gains. In light of these circumstances, this empirical study set out with the intention of estimating the scope of households' response to, and assessing customers' perception of, a demand-based time-of-use electricity distribution tariff. The results show that households as a whole have a fairly high opinion of the demand-based tariff and act on its intrinsic price signals by decreasing peak demand in peak periods and shifting electricity use from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Households are sympathetic to demand-based tariffs, seeing as they relate to environmental issues. → Households adjust their electricity use to the price signals of demand-based tariffs. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a shift in electricity use from peak to off-peak hours. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a decrease in maximum demand in peak periods. → Magnitude of these effects increases over time.

  7. Crude oil prices: Robust demands strengthens outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper briefly summarizes the growth in the global demand for oil products by showing the historical trends in production and demand in developing countries. It shows world incremental production growth from 1985 to 1995 and developing countries's demands from 1971 to 1989. The paper goes on to make predictions as to whether the demand growth rate can be sustained. It provides information on the status of the world offshore drilling and production facilities to determine the capacity of this resource

  8. Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, Alvon, E-mail: armoore@centralbank.org.bb [Economist, Central Bank of Barbados, Toms Adams Financial Centre, Bridgetown (Barbados)

    2011-06-15

    The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: > Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). > The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. > As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. > Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. > Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.

  9. Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, Alvon

    2011-01-01

    The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: → Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). → The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. → As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. → Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. → Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.

  10. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  11. A Study of Job Demands and Curriculum Development in Agricultural Training Related to the Muskegon County Wastewater Management System. Final Report. Volume II. Task Analysis Results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Harold S.; And Others

    This is the second volume of a four-volume report of a research project designed to (1) identify job needs for agricultural occupations which will result from the Muskegon County Wastewater Management System and perform a task analysis on each occupation, (2) develop instructional modules and determine their place in either high school or 2-year…

  12. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 3 -- Residential and commercial sector DSM analyses: Detailed results from the DBEDT DSM assessment model; Part 1, Technical potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    The Hawaii Demand-Side Management Resource Assessment was the fourth of seven projects in the Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) program. HES was designed by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) to produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. The purpose of Project 4 was to develop a comprehensive assessment of Hawaii`s demand-side management (DSM) resources. To meet this objective, the project was divided into two phases. The first phase included development of a DSM technology database and the identification of Hawaii commercial building characteristics through on-site audits. These Phase 1 products were then used in Phase 2 to identify expected energy impacts from DSM measures in typical residential and commercial buildings in Hawaii. The building energy simulation model DOE-2.1E was utilized to identify the DSM energy impacts. More detailed information on the typical buildings and the DOE-2.1E modeling effort is available in Reference Volume 1, ``Building Prototype Analysis``. In addition to the DOE-2.1E analysis, estimates of residential and commercial sector gas and electric DSM potential for the four counties of Honolulu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai through 2014 were forecasted by the new DBEDT DSM Assessment Model. Results from DBEDTs energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, were linked with results from DOE-2.1E building energy simulation runs and estimates of DSM measure impacts, costs, lifetime, and anticipated market penetration rates in the DBEDT DSM Model. Through its algorithms, estimates of DSM potential for each forecast year were developed. Using the load shape information from the DOE-2.1E simulation runs, estimates of electric peak demand impacts were developed. Numerous tables and figures illustrating the technical potential for demand-side management are included.

  13. Psychopathology and tobacco demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Abrantes, Ana M; Metrik, Jane

    2017-08-01

    Behavioral economic measurement of the relative value of tobacco (Cigarette Purchase Task; CPT) is used to examine individual differences in motivation for tobacco under certain contexts. Smokers with psychopathology, relative to those without, may demonstrate stronger demand for tobacco following a period of smoking deprivation, which could account for disparate rates of smoking and cessation among this subgroup. Participants (n=111) were community-recruited adult daily smokers who completed the CPT after a deprivation period of approximately 60min. Presence of psychopathology was assessed via clinical interview; 40.5% (n=45) of the sample met criteria for past-year psychological diagnosis. Specifically, 31.5% (n=35) had an emotional disorder (anxiety/depressive disorder), 17.1% (n=19) had a substance use disorder, and 19.1% of the sample had more than one disorder. Smokers with any psychopathology showed significantly higher intensity (demand at unrestricted cost; $0) and O max (peak expenditure for a drug) relative to smokers with no psychopathology. Intensity was significantly higher among smokers with an emotional disorder compared to those without. Smokers with a substance use disorder showed significantly higher intensity and O max , and lower elasticity, reflecting greater insensitivity to price increases. Having≥2 disorders was associated with higher intensity relative to having 1 or no disorders. Findings suggest that presence of psychopathology may be associated with greater and more persistent motivation to smoke. Future work is needed to explore the mechanism linking psychopathology to tobacco demand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Bank Credit and Aggregate Import Demand in Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Chimobi Omoke

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study reformulated the aggregate import demand for Nigeria by including a financial variable (bank credit into the traditional import demand function for the period 1970-2009. The Johansen Multivariate cointegration analysis was used to estimate the function. The result obtained from the study shows no evidence of the existence of cointegrating relations between bank credit and import demand. This shows that bank credit is found to be insufficient as a policy instrument for long term import demand in Nigeria. Thus, the financial variable should not be included in modelling the aggregate import demand for Nigeria.

  15. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  16. ANALISIS PERMINTAAN (DEMAND ANALYSIS PELAYANAN KESEHATAN PUSKESMAS DI KABUPATEN MOJOKERTO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasis Budiarto

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A study on demand for health centre was carried out at Mojokerto Regency, East Java. The study convered 300 respondents (15 years old and over which were collected from two areas, urban (Kecamatan Bangsal and rural (Kecamatan Puri. The objectives of this study were to measure the demand for health centre services and to determine the influencing factors. A household survey was conducted in this study, using household and individual as unit of analysis and a multiple linier regression technique was used as analysis. In general, the result showed that needs were the most important factor affecting demand. In the urban health centres positive factor affecting individual demand were distance, family size and need, however in the rural health centre were cost, time and need were factors affecting demand. Factors affecting family demand for health services is different from individual demand. In urban and rural areas, family demand for health center was substitute alternative of the demand for the phycisian services.

  17. Oil prices: demand and supply. Lesson plan

    OpenAIRE

    anonymous

    2005-01-01

    Upon completion of this lesson, students will be able to list the determinants of demand and supply, recognize which factors will cause demand curves or supply curves to shift, determine equilibrium using a demand/supply graph, and show the effects on price and quantity when equilibrium changes.

  18. On-Demand Telemetry

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — AFRC has previously investigated the use of Network Based Telemetry. We will be building on that research to enable On-Demand Telemetry. On-Demand Telemetry is a way...

  19. Money Demand in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Ivars Tillers

    2004-01-01

    The econometric analysis of the demand for broad money in Latvia suggests a stable relationship of money demand. The analysis of parameter exogeneity indicates that the equilibrium adjustment is driven solely by the changes in the amount of money. The demand for money in Latvia is characterised by relatively high income elasticity typical for the economy in a monetary expansion phase. Due to stability, close fit of the money demand function and rapid equilibrium adjustment, broad money aggreg...

  20. Price elasticity of demand: An overlooked concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An all-too-common mistake in analyzing the uranium market is to assume that demand for uranium is driven only by the design and operational parameters of nuclear power plants. Because it is generally accepted that demand for uranium is inelastic, not much attention has been given to how prices can indirectly affect demand. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the factors that are most sensitive to uranium prices, and to show how they alter uranium demand

  1. The Relationship between Farm-Gate and Consumer Demand for Meat Products in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    fatemeh fathi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Demand for farm output is theoretically consistent with consumer demand and marketing performance. Many studies have focused on demand interrelationships at the retail level, but not on the demand for farm output. In this study, derived demand elasticities of sheep, beef and chicken were estimated in a complete system of demand functions by seemingly unrelated regression estimator (SURE for the years 1984-2012. Sheep, beef and chicken are considered as inputs for food processing and marketing and so their corresponding derived demands are related to consumer demand and marketing performance. Based on findings of this study, the elasticities of substitution are estimated to be 0.26 for sheep, 0.38 for cattle and 0.32 for poultry. The results showed that derived demand elasticity is more sensitive than the one measured by the traditional method. The price elasticities of the derived demands for the three types of meat were calculated-0.922, -0.775 and -0.716 for sheep, beef and chicken, respectively. This presents that demands at the farm level are less elastic than the associated demands at the retail level. Therefore, policies that change meat price at farm or retail level affect marginal markets of other meat products. According to the results of this study, it is necessary for policy makers to have information on the derived demand elasticity.

  2. Meeting increased demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Andrew

    2004-07-01

    New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number

  3. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  4. An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

    2012-01-01

    Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

  5. Exact Fill Rates for the (R, S Inventory Control with Discrete Distributed Demands for the Backordering Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia BABILONI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The fill rate is usually computed by using the traditional approach, which calculates it as the complement of the quotient between the expected unfulfilled demand and the expected demand per replenishment cycle, instead of directly the expected fraction of fulfilled demand. Furthermore the available methods to estimate the fill rate apply only under specific demand conditions. This paper shows the research gap regarding the estimation procedures to compute the fill rate and suggests: (i a new exact procedure to compute the traditional approximation for any discrete demand distribution; and (ii a new method to compute the fill rate directly as the fraction of fulfilled demand for any discrete demand distribution. Simulation results show that the latter methods outperform the traditional approach, which underestimates the simulated fill rate, over different demand patterns. This paper focuses on the traditional periodic review, base stock system when backlogged demands are allowed.

  6. Analysis of food demand among rural households in Kwara State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of food demand among rural households in Kwara State, North Central ... Nigerian Journal of Technological Research ... Contrary to the law of demand, this study shows that the demand for animal products and fats/oil increased with ...

  7. Simulation of annual electric lighting demand using various occupancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Anne; Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Svendsen, Svend

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation of the effect on electric lighting demand of applying occupancy models of various resolution to climate-based daylight modelling. The lighting demand was evaluated for a building zone with the occupant always present, with occupancy corresponding to absence...... factors, based on an estimated annual mean occupancy, based on estimated 1-hour mean occupancy, and based on 2-min occupancy intervals. The results showed little difference in the annual electric lighting demand when the same occupancy profile was used every day, as opposed to when profiles were used...... where occupancy varied every day. Furthermore, the results showed that annual electric lighting demand was evaluated slightly conservatively when a mean absence factor was applied as opposed to using dynamic occupancy profiles....

  8. results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salabura Piotr

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available HADES experiment at GSI is the only high precision experiment probing nuclear matter in the beam energy range of a few AGeV. Pion, proton and ion beams are used to study rare dielectron and strangeness probes to diagnose properties of strongly interacting matter in this energy regime. Selected results from p + A and A + A collisions are presented and discussed.

  9. An econometrics method to estimate demand of sugar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negar Seyed Soleimany

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sugar is one of the strategic goods in the basket of households in each country and it plays an important role in supplying the required energy. On the other hand, it is one of the goods, which Iranian government is about to change its subsidy strategies. To design useful sugar subsidy strategies, it is necessary to know sugar position in the basket of households and be familiar with households' sugar demand or consumption behavior. This research estimates sugar demand for Iranian households by using time series of 1984-2008, which is taken from central bank of Iran. In this paper, first independent and dependent variables of household sugar demand model are chosen based on the literature review and theory of demand. Then, sugar demand is estimated by OLS technique and linear regression. The preliminary statistical observations such as Durbin-Watson, F statistic and R2 indicate that the regression is admissible. The results seem plausible and consistent with theory and show that sugar demand in Iranian households is associated with household expenditure, relative sugar price, family size and indicate that demand of sugar is affected during the war time. The results also show the income elasticity is 0.8 and price elasticity is -0.2 which means sugar is essential good for Iranian households and is inelastic to price.

  10. Gas demand forecasting by a new artificial intelligent algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi. B, Vahid; Khatibi, Elham

    2012-01-01

    Energy demand forecasting is a key issue for consumers and generators in all energy markets in the world. This paper presents a new forecasting algorithm for daily gas demand prediction. This algorithm combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression or GARCH. The proposed method is applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the proposed method.

  11. Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Woon Gyu Choi; Seonghwan Oh

    2000-01-01

    This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is subs...

  12. Estimation of electricity demand of Iran using two heuristic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjadi, M.H.; Nezamabadi-pour, H.; Farsangi, M.M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with estimation of electricity demand of Iran based on economic indicators using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithm. The estimation is based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, number of customers and average price electricity by developing two different estimation models: a linear model and a non-linear model. The proposed models are obtained based upon available actual data of 21 years; since 1980-2000. Then the models obtained are used to estimate the electricity demand of the target years; for a period of time e.g. 2001-2006 and the results obtained are compared with the actual demand during this period. Furthermore, to validate the results obtained by PSO, genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to solve the problem. The results show that the PSO is a useful optimization tool for solving the problem using two developed models and can be used as an alternative solution to estimate the future electricity demand.

  13. Innovation and Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2007-01-01

    the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

  14. Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Blake, Andon [CEPMLP, Dundee University, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom)

    2009-04-15

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the domestic demand for petroleum products in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries employing a recent data series (1982-2005). Understanding the domestic demand of oil producing countries is important due to the existence of subsidised supply, loss of foreign exchange income and the environmental effects of oil use. The paper analyses the evolution of petroleum product demand in MENA and presents an econometric analysis of demand using a simple log-linear specification for four petroleum products, namely gasoline, diesel, kerosene and fuel oil. The study covers seven MENA countries, namely Algeria, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. The results show that demand has grown quite fast in these countries probably because the fuel price has been kept very low while income has risen fast and thus demand has grown fast. The gasoline demand model has performed better than other models in terms of producing expected signs for the parameters. The results for the kerosene model was the least satisfactory as most of the coefficients were found to be statistically insignificant. However, in terms of numerical results, this study compares well with other similar studies of the past. (author)

  15. Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Blake, Andon

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the domestic demand for petroleum products in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries employing a recent data series (1982-2005). Understanding the domestic demand of oil producing countries is important due to the existence of subsidised supply, loss of foreign exchange income and the environmental effects of oil use. The paper analyses the evolution of petroleum product demand in MENA and presents an econometric analysis of demand using a simple log-linear specification for four petroleum products, namely gasoline, diesel, kerosene and fuel oil. The study covers seven MENA countries, namely Algeria, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. The results show that demand has grown quite fast in these countries probably because the fuel price has been kept very low while income has risen fast and thus demand has grown fast. The gasoline demand model has performed better than other models in terms of producing expected signs for the parameters. The results for the kerosene model was the least satisfactory as most of the coefficients were found to be statistically insignificant. However, in terms of numerical results, this study compares well with other similar studies of the past. (author)

  16. Rewarding yet demanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørkedal, S T B; Torsting, A M B; Møller, T

    2016-01-01

    in a logbook. The Canadian Occupational Performance Measure was used to initiate and guide the intervention and the Canadian Model of Client-Centred Enablement for the client-therapist relationship. RESULTS: Participants described the intervention, which presupposed a certain level of patient readiness...... design comprising an eight-week client-centred occupational therapy intervention with semi-structured interviews with five of the six clients out of 10 who completed the intervention. Braun and Clark's thematic analysis was applied to the transcripts. Adherence rate and dropouts were recorded......, as demanding. Participants valued engaging in real-life occupations while anchoring new strategies but also the occupational therapist's role in dealing with failure. Participants felt the intervention assisted in their recovery process and enabled them to engage in meaningful occupations. CONCLUSION...

  17. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  18. Divers of Passenger Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Wittmer, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    -Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

  19. Electricity demand for South Korean residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sa'ad, Suleiman

    2009-01-01

    This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment.

  20. Electricity demand for South Korean residential sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sa' ad, Suleiman [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

    2009-12-15

    This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment. (author)

  1. Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adeyemi, Olutomi I.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling OECD industrial energy demand. The industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies. Consequently, given the derived demand nature of energy, it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured. However, the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved; one strand suggests that technical progress is ‘endogenous’ via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is ‘exogenous’. More recently, it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both ‘endogenous’ technical progress and ‘exogenous’ technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly. This paper therefore attempts to model OECD industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962–2010 for 15 OECD countries. Using the Structural Time Series Model framework, the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses (for technical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying energy demand trend (for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). The results show that almost all of the preferred models for OECD industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses. This gives estimated long-run income elasticities in the range of 0.34 to 0.96; estimated long-run price-maximum elasticities in the range of − 0.06 to − 1.22; estimated long-run price-recovery elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.27; and estimated long-run price-cut elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.18. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for

  2. Uranium supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spriggs, M J

    1976-01-01

    Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)

  3. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  4. OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1993-01-01

    Econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand with in the developed countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989-2010 period in a recent model comparison study. The response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses. It enables one to estimate long-run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20-year cross-scenario results. It also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions (in 1988) on future oil demand growth. Due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response, past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demands in some models, but little or even negative effect in other models. On the basis of this finding, we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model's starting oil demand conditions. (author)

  5. Impacts of Demand-Side Resources on Electric Transmission Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sanstad, Alan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Will demand resources such as energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and distributed generation (DG) have an impact on electricity transmission requirements? Five drivers for transmission expansion are discussed: interconnection, reliability, economics, replacement, and policy. With that background, we review the results of a set of transmission studies that were conducted between 2010 and 2013 by electricity regulators, industry representatives, and other stakeholders in the three physical interconnections within the United States. These broad-based studies were funded by the US Department of Energy and included scenarios of reduced load growth due to EE, DR, and DG. While the studies were independent and used different modeling tools and interconnect-specific assumptions, all provided valuable results and insights. However, some caveats exist. Demand resources were evaluated in conjunction with other factors, and limitations on transmission additions between scenarios made understanding the role of demand resources difficult. One study, the western study, included analyses over both 10- and 20-year planning horizons; the 10-year analysis did not show near-term reductions in transmission, but the 20-year indicated fewer transmission additions, yielding a 36percent capital cost reduction. In the eastern study the reductions in demand largely led to reductions in local generation capacity and an increased opportunity for low-cost and renewable generation to export to other regions. The Texas study evaluated generation changes due to demand, and is in the process of examining demand resource impacts on transmission.

  6. Show-Bix &

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The anti-reenactment 'Show-Bix &' consists of 5 dias projectors, a dial phone, quintophonic sound, and interactive elements. A responsive interface will enable the Dias projectors to show copies of original dias slides from the Show-Bix piece ”March på Stedet”, 265 images in total. The copies are...

  7. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  8. CERN on show

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Last week I was in Ankara to discuss Turkish accession to CERN, and to take part in the opening of CERN’s main travelling exhibition at the Middle East Technical University. I was astonished at the crowds of people the exhibition drew in, and I’m told that it’s a similar story wherever it goes. Our smaller exhibition stands are also much in demand across our Member States.   You don’t have to travel to Ankara, however, to experience the same phenomenon – just go to Building 33 any time from Monday to Saturday and you’ll get the idea. But although we’ve worked hard over recent years to increase our capacity for visits to a level approaching 80,000 per year, there’s still a long waiting list. And that’s a problem. The success of the Visits Service rests on the goodwill of all the CERNois who volunteer to be guides, as well as those who graciously allow increasing numbers of visitors into their workplaces...

  9. The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Lind, Arne; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2013-01-01

    Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export. - Highlights: • Projections to 2050 of Norwegian energy demand services, carriers and technologies. • Energy demand services calculated based on intensities and activities. • Energy carriers and technologies analysed by TIMES-Norway. • High renewable target results in more wind power production and electricity export. • Increased energy efficiency is important for a high renewable fraction

  10. A semiparametric model of household gasoline demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia [Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country. It is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio-economic groups. At the same time, parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income. This paper models US gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques, accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households. The econometric model employs a non-parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables. Possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables. Results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income, multiple vehicle holding, presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations. Households' responses to a price change decrease with higher income. Multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change. Households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price. Comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model, however, reveals no significant differences between results, and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability. (author)

  11. Showing Value (Editorial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Koufogiannakis

    2009-06-01

    librarians on student achievement. Todd notes, “If we do not show value, we will not have a future. Evidence-based practice is not about the survival of school librarians, it’s about the survival of our students” (40. In this issue we feature school libraries and their connection to evidence based practice. Former Editor-in-Chief, Lindsay Glynn, began putting the wheels in motion for this feature almost a year ago. She invited Carol Gordon and Ross Todd to act as guest editors of the section, drawing upon their contacts and previous work in this field. The result is an issue with five feature articles exploring different aspects of the connection between school libraries and evidence based practice, from the theoretical to the practical. In addition, there is a thought-provoking Commentary by David Loertscher, asking whether we need the evolutionary model of evidence based practice, or something more revolutionary!In addition to the Feature section, we have a well-rounded issue with articles on the topics of library human resources, and the development of a scholars’ portal. As well, there are a record 10 evidence summaries and our educational EBL101 column. I hope there is something for everyone in this issue of EBLIP – enjoy, and see you soon in Stockholm!

  12. Exhaustion and Emotional Demands in China:A Large-Scale Investigation across Occupations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kelly Z.Peng

    2017-01-01

    As the Chinese economy moves toward a market-based model,employees are likely to face more emotional demands and exhaustion at work.However,there are some unique aspects to the emotional demands of work in the Chinese cultural context.We investigate emotional demands and exhaustion in China with a large-scale sample across the six major occupations identified by the Holland classification system.Results show that incumbents of social and enterprising jobs face higher emotional demands.Unexpectedly,exhaustion differs significantly between conventional and other types of jobs.Building on the Job Demand-Resources (JD-R) model,job crafting and the cultural context,we propose that the nonlinear relationship of emotional demands and exhaustion exists only when emotional intelligence is low.Our study may inform practitioners and policy makers in Chinese enterprises about emotional demands and exhaustion for various occupations and the importance of selection and training programs in emotional intelligence.

  13. Asian oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

  14. Demand response in Indian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

  15. A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, M. E.; Nurul, A. I. M.; Rusiman, M. S.

    2018-04-01

    Tourism has become one of the important industries that contributes to the country’s economy. Tourism demand forecasting gives valuable information to policy makers, decision makers and organizations related to tourism industry in order to make crucial decision and planning. However, it is challenging to produce an accurate forecast since economic data such as the tourism data is affected by social, economic and environmental factors. In this study, an equally-weighted hybrid method, which is a combination of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks, was applied to forecast Malaysia’s tourism demand. The forecasting performance was assessed by taking the each individual method as a benchmark. The results showed that this hybrid approach outperformed the other two models

  16. Uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

  17. Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo; Pachauri, Shonali

    2004-01-01

    In the past, several electricity demand studies have been published for India based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub-national/state level. Since the underlying theory of consumer demand is based on the behaviour of individual agents, the use of micro data, which reflects individual and household behaviour, more closely, can shed greater light on the nature of consumer responses. In this paper, seasonal price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of India are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for about 30,000 households. Three electricity demand functions have been econometrically estimated using monthly data for the winter, monsoon and summer season in order to understand the extent to which factors like income, prices, household size and other household specific characteristics, influence variations observed in individual households' electricity demand. The results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons, and that household, demographic and geographical variables are significant in determining electricity demand

  18. Ad Hoc on-Demand Distance Vector (AODV Routing Protocol Performance Evaluation on Hybrid Ad Hoc Network: Comparison of Result of Ns-2 Simulation and Implementation on Testbed using PDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riri Sari

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In Mobile Ad hoc NETwork (MANET, node supplemented with wireless equipment has the capacity to manage and organise autonomously, without the presence of network infrastructures. Hybrid ad hoc network, enable several nodes to move freely (mobile to create instant communication. Independent from infrastructure. They could access the Local Area Network (LAN or the Internet. Functionalities of ad hoc network very much dependent on the routing protocol that determines the routing around node. Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV is one of routing protocols in ad hoc network which has a reactive characteristic. This protocol is the most common protocol being researched and used. In this Research, AODV protocol investigation was conducted by developing a testbed using Personal Computer, several Laptops (the Linux Red Hat operation system 9.0 and Fedora Core 2, and Personal Digital Assistant (PDA. This research also made a complete package by mean of cross compilation for PDA iPAQ. In general, results obtained from the simulation of AODV protocol using Network Simulator NS-2 are packet delivery ratio 99.89%, end-to-end delay of 0.14 seconds and routing overhead of 1,756.61 byte per second. Afterwards results from simulation were compared to results from testbed. Results obtained from testbed are as follows: the packet delivery ratio is 99.57%, the end-to-end delay is 1.004 seconds and the routing overhead is 1,360.36 byte per second.

  19. Consumer Demand for Healthy Diet: New Evidence from the Healthy Eating Index

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Zhifeng; Yu, Xiaohua; Lee, Jonq-Ying

    2011-01-01

    A large volume of literature has been focusing on the measure of diet quality and consumer demand for food. However, little has estimated consumer demand for diet quality. In this article, we systematically estimate consumer demand for diet quality using the healthy eating index (HEI) developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Results show that consumers have insufficient consumption of the food containing dark green, orange vegetable, legumes and total grain. Age and education have...

  20. Gasoline demand in Europe. New insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pock, Markus

    2010-01-01

    This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set. (author)

  1. Gasoline demand in Europe. New insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pock, Markus [Department of Economics and Finance, HealthEcon IHS - Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna (Austria)

    2010-01-15

    This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set. (author)

  2. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  3. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  4. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  5. Consumer demand and quality assurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...... an inventory of pork chain governance and quality management systems, also resulting from a pan-European study, and attempt to match types of chains to consumer segments, arguing that the type of quality demanded by the consumers has implications especially for the quality management system governing the chain......, and that these implications are different for fresh meat and processed meat. The paper closes with a call for more collaboration between chain researchers and consumer researchers....

  6. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  7. Household consumption, associated fossil fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions: The case of Greece between 1990 and 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papathanasopoulou, Eleni

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores how Greece's household consumption has changed between 1990 and 2006 and its environmental implications in terms of fossil fuel demand and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The results show that the 44% increase in Greece's household expenditure between 1990 and 2006 was accompanied by a 67% increase in fossil fuel demand. Of this total, indirect demand accounted for approximately 60% throughout the 16-year period, increasing by 56% overall, whereas direct fossil fuel demand grew by 80%. The results also show that associated CO 2 emissions increased by 60%, resulting in a 'relative decoupling' from energy demand. This relative decoupling is shown to be due to fossil fuel mix changes from the supply side rather than action from consumers. These insights highlight the opportunities for demand-side policies to further reduce fossil fuel demand and CO 2 emissions, allowing Greece to set more proactive and ambitious post-Kyoto targets.

  8. Consumer surplus and CES demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Raa, Thijs

    2015-01-01

    This article presents the consumer surplus formula for constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demands. The formula is used to compare the monopoly and optimum provisions of product variety. It is shown that a monopolist under-provides variety. This result is contrasted with Lambertini’s analysis

  9. Demand controlled ventilation for multi-family dwellings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Dorthe Kragsig

    for centrally balanced DCV systems with heat recovery. A design expected to fulfill this requirement was investigated in detail with regard to its electricity consumption by evaluating a control strategy that resets the static pressure set point at part load. The results showed that this control strategy can......The present thesis “Demand controlled ventilation for multi-family dwellings” constitutes the summary of a three year project period during which demand specification and system design of demand controlled ventilation for residential buildings were studied. Most standards and buildings codes...... can be reduced compared to a system with constant air flow. A literature study on indoor pollutants in homes, their sources and their impact on humans formed the basis for the demand specification. Emission of pollutants in residential buildings roughly fall into constantly emitted background sources...

  10. Population ageing and healthcare demand: The case of Slovenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrhovec, Jure; Tajnikar, Maks

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore the consequences of demographic ageing on healthcare demand in Slovenia for primary care, secondary care, hospital day-care treatments, and hospitalisations. In the paper, we develop a model for making projections of the total number of treatments using the age-group projection method with the scenario approach. The model allows the number of treatments to be observed with respect to medical services, age groups and main disease groups. The results are presented for the cross-section years 2015, 2025 and 2035. The smallest increase in the number of treatments occurs in primary care, a larger one for secondary care, and the largest for hospital day-care services and hospitalisations (up to 29.9%). The structure of demand will also change. Demand for healthcare services for children and infants will decrease while demand for diseases associated with older age groups will increase, particularly for diseases of the circulatory system, eye and adnexa, and diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs. The results presented in this paper can help improve understanding of similar processes in other countries for total healthcare demand and for changes in the structure of demand. The results show that the healthcare system in Slovenia will face a major additional burden in the next 20 years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Environment-quality demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delfini, M.G.; Leenhouts, H.P.

    1988-12-01

    In the framework of the Environment Quality Requirements (MKE) project a model has been designed in which environment-quality demands have been defined and quantified, and a measuring strategy has been developed. In the model it is required for the quality of the environment that the radionuclide concentration in the various environment compartiments remains limited in order to keep the effective dose equivalence for the 'reference man' under a certain reference level. In order to be able to determine the maximum nuclide concentration it is necessary to quantify the relation between the concentration in the environment and the dose for the people. The quantitative relation between concentration and dose has been established on the base of parameters (Derived Activity Limits (DAL's) which have to be calculated for each environment compartiment, each nuclide and each exposure pathway. This model has been described and, as example, the DAL's have been calculated for the compartiment air (for which the two exposure pathways inhalation and direct radiation were considered). For the other environment compartiments a similar elaboration is needed. The feasibility of application of the MKE-model in the actual practice of measurements in the environment and examination of dose for the population depends upon the possibility for performing nuclide specific measurements in all environment compartiments, the level of the dose resulting from the contamination of the environment and the related accurateness of the measurements

  12. Talking with TV shows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandvik, Kjetil; Laursen, Ditte

    2014-01-01

    User interaction with radio and television programmes is not a new thing. However, with new cross-media production concepts such as X Factor and Voice, this is changing dramatically. The second-screen logic of these productions encourages viewers, along with TV’s traditional one-way communication...... mode, to communicate on interactive (dialogue-enabling) devices such as laptops, smartphones and tablets. Using the TV show Voice as our example, this article shows how the technological and situational set-up of the production invites viewers to engage in new ways of interaction and communication...

  13. Ultrasonography-guided core needle biopsy for the thyroid nodule: does the procedure hold any benefit for the diagnosis when fine-needle aspiration cytology analysis shows inconclusive results?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, S Y; Han, B-K; Ko, E Y; Ko, E S

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the diagnostic role of ultrasonography-guided core needle biopsy (CNB) according to ultrasonography features of thyroid nodules that had inconclusive ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration (FNA) results. Methods: A total of 88 thyroid nodules in 88 patients who underwent ultrasonography-guided CNB because of previous inconclusive FNA results were evaluated. The patients were classified into three groups based on ultrasonography findings: Group A, which was suspicious for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC); Group B, which was suspicious for follicular (Hurthle cell) neoplasm; and Group C, which was suspicious for lymphoma. The final diagnoses of the thyroid nodules were determined by surgical confirmation or follow-up after ultrasonography-guided CNB. Results: Of the 88 nodules, the malignant rate was 49.1% in Group A, 12.0% in Group B and 90.0% in Group C. The rates of conclusive ultrasonography-guided CNB results after previous incomplete ultrasonography-guided FNA results were 96.2% in Group A, 64.0% in Group B and 90.0% in Group C (p=0.001). 12 cases with inconclusive ultrasonography-guided CNB results were finally diagnosed as 8 benign lesions, 3 PTCs and 1 lymphoma. The number of previous ultrasonography-guided FNA biopsies was not significantly different between the conclusive and the inconclusive result groups of ultrasonography-guided CNB (p=0.205). Conclusion: Ultrasonography-guided CNB has benefit for the diagnosis of thyroid nodules with inconclusive ultrasonography-guided FNA results. However, it is still not helpful for the differential diagnosis in 36% of nodules that are suspicious for follicular neoplasm seen on ultrasonography. Advances in knowledge: This study shows the diagnostic contribution of ultrasonography-guided CNB as an alternative to repeat ultrasonography-guided FNA or surgery. PMID:23564885

  14. Mining residential water and electricity demand data in Southern California to inform demand management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cominola, A.; Spang, E. S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Loge, F. J.; Lund, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    characterizing them with respect to consumption profiles features and socio- demographic information. Results show how such better understanding of the considered users' community allows spotting potentially interesting areas for water and energy demand management interventions.

  15. Dynamic inventory rationing strategies for inventory systems with two demand classes, Poisson demand and backordering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Haneveld, Willem K. Klein

    2008-01-01

    We study inventory systems with two demand classes (critical and non-critical), Poisson demand and backordering. We analyze dynamic rationing strategies where the number of items reserved for critical demand depends on the remaining time until the next order arrives. Different from results in the

  16. Talk Show Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Mitzi Ruth

    1992-01-01

    Proposes having students perform skits in which they play the roles of the science concepts they are trying to understand. Provides the dialog for a skit in which hot and cold gas molecules are interviewed on a talk show to study how these properties affect wind, rain, and other weather phenomena. (MDH)

  17. Obesity in show cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbee, R J

    2014-12-01

    Obesity is an important disease with a high prevalence in cats. Because obesity is related to several other diseases, it is important to identify the population at risk. Several risk factors for obesity have been described in the literature. A higher incidence of obesity in certain cat breeds has been suggested. The aim of this study was to determine whether obesity occurs more often in certain breeds. The second aim was to relate the increased prevalence of obesity in certain breeds to the official standards of that breed. To this end, 268 cats of 22 different breeds investigated by determining their body condition score (BCS) on a nine-point scale by inspection and palpation, at two different cat shows. Overall, 45.5% of the show cats had a BCS > 5, and 4.5% of the show cats had a BCS > 7. There were significant differences between breeds, which could be related to the breed standards. Most overweight and obese cats were in the neutered group. It warrants firm discussions with breeders and cat show judges to come to different interpretations of the standards in order to prevent overweight conditions in certain breeds from being the standard of beauty. Neutering predisposes for obesity and requires early nutritional intervention to prevent obese conditions. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. Honored Teacher Shows Commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratte, Kathy

    1987-01-01

    Part of the acceptance speech of the 1985 National Council for the Social Studies Teacher of the Year, this article describes the censorship experience of this honored social studies teacher. The incident involved the showing of a videotape version of the feature film entitled "The Seduction of Joe Tynan." (JDH)

  19. Stochastic–multiobjective market equilibrium analysis of a demand response program in energy market under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

  20. Demand for abortion and post abortion care in Ibadan, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background While induced abortion is considered to be illegal and socially unacceptable in Nigeria, it is still practiced by many women in the country. Poor family planning and unsafe abortion practices have daunting effects on maternal health. For instance, Nigeria is on the verge of not meeting the Millennium development goals on maternal health due to high maternal mortality ratio, estimated to be about 630 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Recent evidences have shown that a major factor in this trend is the high incidence of abortion in the country. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the factors determining the demand for abortion and post-abortion care in Ibadan city of Nigeria. Methods The study employed data from a hospital-based/exploratory survey carried out between March to September 2010. Closed ended questionnaires were administered to a sample of 384 women of reproductive age from three hospitals within the Ibadan metropolis in South West Nigeria. However, only 308 valid responses were received and analysed. A probit model was fitted to determine the socioeconomic factors that influence demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Results The results showed that 62% of respondents demanded for abortion while 52.3% of those that demanded for abortion received post-abortion care. The findings again showed that income was a significant determinant of abortion and post-abortion care demand. Women with higher income were more likely to demand abortion and post-abortion care. Married women were found to be less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Older women were significantly less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Mothers’ education was only statistically significant in determining abortion demand but not post-abortion care demand. Conclusion The findings suggest that while abortion is illegal in Nigeria, some women in the Ibadan city do abort unwanted pregnancies. The consequence of this

  1. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  2. Too easy? The influence of task demands conveyed tacitly on prospective memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, Joana S.; Hill, Johnathan H.; Maylor, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Previous research suggests that when intentions are encoded, participants establish an attention allocation policy based on their metacognitive beliefs about how demanding it will be to fulfill the prospective memory (PM) task. We investigated whether tacit PM demands can influence judgments about the cognitive effort required for success, and, as a result, affect ongoing task interference and PM performance. Participants performed a lexical decision task in which a PM task of responding to animal words was embedded. PM demands were tacitly manipulated by presenting participants with either typical or atypical animal exemplars at both instructions and practice (low vs. high tacit demands, respectively). Crucially, objective PM task demands were the same for all participants as PM targets were always atypical animals. Tacit demands affected participants’ attention allocation policies such that task interference was greater for the high than low demands condition. Also, PM performance was reduced in the low relative to the high demands condition. Participants in the low demands condition who succeeded to the first target showed a subsequent increase in task interference, suggesting adjustment to the higher than expected demands. This study demonstrates that tacit information regarding the PM task can affect ongoing task processing as well as harm PM performance when actual demands are higher than expected. Furthermore, in line with the proposal that attention allocation is a dynamic and flexible process, we found evidence that PM task experience can trigger changes in ongoing task interference. PMID:25983687

  3. The energy show

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The Energy Show is a new look at the problems of world energy, where our supplies come from, now and in the future. The programme looks at how we need energy to maintain our standards of living. Energy supply is shown as the complicated set of problems it is - that Fossil Fuels are both raw materials and energy sources, that some 'alternatives' so readily suggested as practical options are in reality a long way from being effective. (author)

  4. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  5. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  6. Pattern of demand for children in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, T

    1992-01-01

    The study aim was to determine the pattern of demand for children and to suggest ways to introduce the idea of a small-family norm and reduce the unmet need for contraception in Pakistan. The concept of demand for children included the wantedness of the last birth and the timing of the next birth and changed with stage in reproductive life cycle. Data were obtained from the Pakistan Contraception Prevalence Survey of 1984/85. Pakistan's strong patriarchal system emphasized rapid achievement of first pregnancy in order to assure the perpetuation of the lineage. Female status, even with advanced education, emphasized fecundity and producing a male heir. The birthing pattern among rural and urban lower-class women is to bear 3-4 children early in marriage. Evidence from prior surveys showed that educated women plan for a delay in second birth. Of the 6655 ever pregnant and nonsterilized women, about 48% of currently married women desired discontinuation of childbearing. 18% desired a delay of childbearing by 2 years and 10% desired no more children after a last undesired pregnancy. Unmet need was estimated at 17% of all women in the sample. Women desiring no more children were primarily older with 6-8 prior births. Indirect fertility estimates were generated by using Arriaga's techniques for stages of family formation. The resulting estimates showed that higher-parity women desiring no more children still had 2 more children, which was evidence of unmet need. Those desiring more children had higher fertility than those not desiring more children. These women also showed different patterns in their total demand for children, ideal family size, currently living children, and desire for their next birth. Ideal size tended to rise over the length of a marriage, which may mean that women with growing families may justify unwanted fertility. Duration of marriage was viewed as a reasonable indicator of need for fertility control and the concomitant need for outreach

  7. Task demand, task management, and teamwork

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braarud, Per Oeivind; Brendryen, Haavar

    2001-03-15

    The current approach to mental workload assessment in process control was evaluated in 3 previous HAMMLAB studies, by analysing the relationship between workload related measures and performance. The results showed that subjective task complexity rating was related to team's control room performance, that mental effort (NASA-TLX) was weakly related to performance, and that overall activity level was unrelated to performance. The results support the argument that general cognitive measures, i.e., mental workload, are weakly related to performance in the process control domain. This implies that other workload concepts than general mental workload are needed for valid assessment of human reliability and for valid assessment of control room configurations. An assessment of task load in process control suggested that how effort is used to handle task demand is more important then the level of effort invested to solve the task. The report suggests two main workload related concepts with a potential as performance predictors in process control: task requirements, and the work style describing how effort is invested to solve the task. The task requirements are seen as composed of individual task demand and team demand. In a similar way work style are seen as composed of individual task management and teamwork style. A framework for the development of the concepts is suggested based on a literature review and experiences from HAMMLAB research. It is suggested that operational definitions of workload concepts should be based on observable control room behaviour, to assure a potential for developing performance-shaping factors. Finally an explorative analysis of teamwork measures and performance in one study indicated that teamwork concepts are related to performance. This lends support to the suggested development of team demand and teamwork style as elements of a framework for the analysis of workload in process control. (Author)

  8. Open Automated Demand Response for Small Commerical Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, June Han; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan

    2009-05-01

    This report characterizes small commercial buildings by market segments, systems and end-uses; develops a framework for identifying demand response (DR) enabling technologies and communication means; and reports on the design and development of a low-cost OpenADR enabling technology that delivers demand reductions as a percentage of the total predicted building peak electric demand. The results show that small offices, restaurants and retail buildings are the major contributors making up over one third of the small commercial peak demand. The majority of the small commercial buildings in California are located in southern inland areas and the central valley. Single-zone packaged units with manual and programmable thermostat controls make up the majority of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems for small commercial buildings with less than 200 kW peak electric demand. Fluorescent tubes with magnetic ballast and manual controls dominate this customer group's lighting systems. There are various ways, each with its pros and cons for a particular application, to communicate with these systems and three methods to enable automated DR in small commercial buildings using the Open Automated Demand Response (or OpenADR) communications infrastructure. Development of DR strategies must consider building characteristics, such as weather sensitivity and load variability, as well as system design (i.e. under-sizing, under-lighting, over-sizing, etc). Finally, field tests show that requesting demand reductions as a percentage of the total building predicted peak electric demand is feasible using the OpenADR infrastructure.

  9. Demand for abortion and post abortion care in Ibadan, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoyemi, Bosede O; Novignon, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    While induced abortion is considered to be illegal and socially unacceptable in Nigeria, it is still practiced by many women in the country. Poor family planning and unsafe abortion practices have daunting effects on maternal health. For instance, Nigeria is on the verge of not meeting the Millennium development goals on maternal health due to high maternal mortality ratio, estimated to be about 630 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Recent evidences have shown that a major factor in this trend is the high incidence of abortion in the country. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the factors determining the demand for abortion and post-abortion care in Ibadan city of Nigeria. The study employed data from a hospital-based/exploratory survey carried out between March to September 2010. Closed ended questionnaires were administered to a sample of 384 women of reproductive age from three hospitals within the Ibadan metropolis in South West Nigeria. However, only 308 valid responses were received and analysed. A probit model was fitted to determine the socioeconomic factors that influence demand for abortion and post-abortion care. The results showed that 62% of respondents demanded for abortion while 52.3% of those that demanded for abortion received post-abortion care. The findings again showed that income was a significant determinant of abortion and post-abortion care demand. Women with higher income were more likely to demand abortion and post-abortion care. Married women were found to be less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Older women were significantly less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Mothers' education was only statistically significant in determining abortion demand but not post-abortion care demand. The findings suggest that while abortion is illegal in Nigeria, some women in the Ibadan city do abort unwanted pregnancies. The consequence of this in the absence of proper post

  10. The demand for consumer health information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, T H; Hu, T W; Hibbard, J H

    2001-11-01

    Using data from an evaluation of a community-wide informational intervention, we modeled the demand for medical reference books, telephone advice nurses, and computers for health information. Data were gathered from random household surveys in Boise, ID (experimental site), Billings, MT, and Eugene, OR (control sites). Conditional difference-in-differences show that the intervention increased the use of medical reference books, advice nurses, and computers for health information by approximately 15, 6, and 4%. respectively. The results also suggest that the intervention was associated with a decreased reliance on health professionals for information.

  11. UK Nuclear Workforce Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, John

    2017-01-01

    UK Nuclear Sites: DECOMMISSIONING - 26 Magnox Reactors, 2 Fast Reactors; OPERATIONAL - 14 AGRs, 1 PWR; 9.6 GWe Total Capacity. Nuclear Workforce Demand • Total workforce demand is expected to grow from ~88,000 in 2017 to ~101,000 in 2021 • Average “inflow” is ~7,000 FTEs per annum • 22% of the workforce is female (28% in civil, 12% in defence) • 81% generic skills, 18% nuclear skills, 1% subject matter experts • 3300 trainees total in SLCs and Defence Enterprise (16% graduate trainees) • At peak demand on Civils Construction, over 4,000 workers will be required on each nuclear new build site • Manufacturing workforce is expected to rise from around 4,000 in 2014 to 8,500 at the peak of onsite activity in 2025

  12. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  13. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  14. HEDONIC DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR BEEF IN BENIN METROPOLIS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BIUAGRIC2

    2013-02-11

    Feb 11, 2013 ... implicit demand for beef within the framework of a hedonic analysis, and the implicit or shadow price of beef were examined. Primary data ... results of the Hedonic analysis showed that, with an average unit price of N836.57 for beef, a consumer is strongly willing to pay ... method and strategies. Lancaster ...

  15. India Edible Oil Consumption: A Censored Incomplete Demand Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Suwen; Mohanty, Samarendu; Welch, Mark

    2008-01-01

    A Censored Incomplete Demand System is applied to household expenditures for edible oil in India. The results show that edible peanut oil is still a luxury good in India, whereas expenditure elasticities for other edible oils are relatively low. The food habit, location, education of household heads, and other demographic variables have significant effects on the choice of edible oils.

  16. DemandStat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    DemandStat is an accurate and up-to-date international statistics database dedicated to energy demand, with an unrivaled level of details for powerful market analysis. It provides detailed consumption statistics (30 sectors) on all energies, detailed 2003 data and historical annual data since 1970, frequent data revision and update (2 updates options), 150 data sources gathered and expertized, all data on a single database Consistent and homogeneous statistics, in line with all major data providers (IEA, Eurostat, ADB, OLADE, etc), no ruptures in time-series with easy request building and data analysis and reactive support from data experts. (A.L.B.)

  17. Education on Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Lis; Hende, Merete

    2015-01-01

    Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de to temat......Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de...

  18. Electricity demand profile with high penetration of heat pumps in Nordic area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the heat pump (HP) demand profile with high HP penetration in the Nordic area in order to achieve the carbon neutrality power system. The calculation method in the European Standard EN14825 was used to estimate the HP electricity demand profile. The study results show...... there will be high power demand from HPs and the selection of supplemental heating for heat pumps has a big impact on the peak electrical power load of heating. The study in this paper gives an estimate of the scale of the electricity demand with high penetration of heat pumps in the Nordic area....

  19. DESY: Technology transfer on show

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    As well as exploring the unknown, fundamental physics research, with its continual demands for special conditions and precision measurements, makes special demands on frontier technology. One of the most prolific areas of this technology transfer, superconductivity and cryogenics, was highlighted by a recent exhibition at DESY organized by the International Cryogenic Engineering Committee

  20. DESY: Technology transfer on show

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1991-12-15

    As well as exploring the unknown, fundamental physics research, with its continual demands for special conditions and precision measurements, makes special demands on frontier technology. One of the most prolific areas of this technology transfer, superconductivity and cryogenics, was highlighted by a recent exhibition at DESY organized by the International Cryogenic Engineering Committee.

  1. Electricity demand of manufacturing sector in Turkey. A translog cost approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeluek, Guelden; Koc, A. Ali

    2010-01-01

    This paper models factor demand for manufacturing sector in Turkey. We estimated a translog cost function with four factor consist of capital, labor, intermediate input and electricity over the 1980-2001. Our objective, taking in the consideration electricity as production input, was twofold: on the one hand, to estimate the price elasticity of electricity demand in manufacturing sector, and on the other hand to use cross-price and Morishima Elasticities of Substitution results for structural analysis regarding effects of electricity liberalization which initiated in 2001. Empirical result shows that electricity demand is relatively price sensitive (- 0.85). Our result in terms of electricity price is consistent with the previous studies. While electricity-labor and electricity-capital inputs are complementary, results indicate the existence of substitution possibilities between electricity and intermediate input. This means that changes in electricity prices have impact on labor demand and investment demand. These results have important implications for public policy. (author)

  2. Electricity demand of manufacturing sector in Turkey. A translog cost approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boeluek, Guelden; Koc, A. Ali [Akdeniz University, Department of Economics, Antalya, 07058 (Turkey)

    2010-05-15

    This paper models factor demand for manufacturing sector in Turkey. We estimated a translog cost function with four factor consist of capital, labor, intermediate input and electricity over the 1980-2001. Our objective, taking in the consideration electricity as production input, was twofold: on the one hand, to estimate the price elasticity of electricity demand in manufacturing sector, and on the other hand to use cross-price and Morishima Elasticities of Substitution results for structural analysis regarding effects of electricity liberalization which initiated in 2001. Empirical result shows that electricity demand is relatively price sensitive (- 0.85). Our result in terms of electricity price is consistent with the previous studies. While electricity-labor and electricity-capital inputs are complementary, results indicate the existence of substitution possibilities between electricity and intermediate input. This means that changes in electricity prices have impact on labor demand and investment demand. These results have important implications for public policy. (author)

  3. Money Demand Features in CEE Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina-Ioana MERA

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The existence of a stable relationship between money demand and its determinants is important for the efficiency of monetary policy. In this paper we carried a preliminary analysis on the variables that can influence money demand in five Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania in order to determine which characteristics define the evolution of money demand and its determinants, and how volatile they are. The results indicate a number of similarities in terms of monetary development and also suggest that some additional variables that may influence money demand in this specific sample.

  4. A literature review of demand studies in world oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkins, F.; Tayyebi Jazayeri, S.M.

    2004-04-01

    The literature on world oil market demands was reviewed, summarized and organized into seven major groupings. The objective was to model economic behaviour before and after price shocks. In particular, the paper demonstrated how the price elasticity of demand in world oil markets is estimated. It also showed how the relationship between energy and oil consumption and income are estimated. The income elasticity of demand was also estimated, and empirical estimates of the elasticity of aggregate output regarding crude oil and energy prices were presented. The paper also referred to the transportation sector and estimates of the changing nature of seasonal factors. The review showed that there is much heterogeneity of econometric results. The literature showed that demand increased considerably in response to the price shocks of the 1970s, but these shocks were reversed in the 1980s when the increase in demand did not correspond with the decrease in price. Some of the literature is driven by the belief that there must be a stable, non-linear model that fits the data both before and after price shocks. The authors question whether this could be true and propose an alternative hypothesis that there is a different model that pertains to economic behaviour after price shocks. 15 refs., 7 tabs., 1 fig

  5. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari

    2011-01-01

    to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...

  6. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babusiaux, D

    2004-07-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  7. The demand for euros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the demand for euros using panel data for 10 euro area countries covering the period from 1999 to 2008. Monetary aggregates are constructed to ensure that money is a national concept by excluding deposits owned by non-residents and including external deposits owned by

  8. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  9. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  10. Textbook Factor Demand Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Joe C.

    1994-01-01

    Maintains that teachers and textbook graphics follow the same basic pattern in illustrating changes in demand curves when product prices increase. Asserts that the use of computer graphics will enable teachers to be more precise in their graphic presentation of price elasticity. (CFR)

  11. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  12. Service Demand Discovery Mechanism for Mobile Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dapeng; Yan, Junjie; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Ruyan

    2016-11-23

    In the last few years, the service demand for wireless data over mobile networks has continually been soaring at a rapid pace. Thereinto, in Mobile Social Networks (MSNs), users can discover adjacent users for establishing temporary local connection and thus sharing already downloaded contents with each other to offload the service demand. Due to the partitioned topology, intermittent connection and social feature in such a network, the service demand discovery is challenging. In particular, the service demand discovery is exploited to identify the best relay user through the service registration, service selection and service activation. In order to maximize the utilization of limited network resources, a hybrid service demand discovery architecture, such as a Virtual Dictionary User (VDU) is proposed in this paper. Based on the historical data of movement, users can discover their relationships with others. Subsequently, according to the users activity, VDU is selected to facilitate the service registration procedure. Further, the service information outside of a home community can be obtained through the Global Active User (GAU) to support the service selection. To provide the Quality of Service (QoS), the Service Providing User (SPU) is chosen among multiple candidates. Numerical results show that, when compared with other classical service algorithms, the proposed scheme can improve the successful service demand discovery ratio by 25% under reduced overheads.

  13. Willingness to pay and price elasticities of demand for energy-efficient appliances: Combining the hedonic approach and demand systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galarraga, Ibon, E-mail: ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, E-mail: mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org; Markandya, Anil, E-mail: anil.markandya@bc3research.org

    2011-12-15

    This article proposes a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for the attributes represented by energy efficiency labels and providing reliable price elasticities of demand (own and cross) for close substitutes (e.g. those with low energy efficiency and those with higher energy efficiency). This is done by using the results of the hedonic approach together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. The elasticity results obtained with the latter are then compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain: it is found that 15.6% of the final price is actually paid for the energy efficiency attribute. This accounts for about Euro 80 of the average market price. The elasticity results confirm that energy efficient appliances are more price elastic than regular ones. - Highlights: > The article shows a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for energy efficiency labels and price elasticities. > The results of the hedonic approach is used together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. > The elasticity results are compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). > The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain.

  14. A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Yalçıntaş

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

  15. Enhancing perceptual and attentional skills requires common demands between the action video games and transfer tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, Adam C.; Patterson, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Despite increasing evidence that shows action video game play improves perceptual and cognitive skills, the mechanisms of transfer are not well-understood. In line with previous work, we suggest that transfer is dependent upon common demands between the game and transfer task. In the current study, participants played one of four action games with varying speed, visual, and attentional demands for 20 h. We examined whether training enhanced performance for attentional blink, selective attention, attending to multiple items, visual search and auditory detection. Non-gamers who played the game (Modern Combat) with the highest demands showed transfer to tasks of attentional blink and attending to multiple items. The game (MGS Touch) with fewer attentional demands also decreased attentional blink, but to a lesser degree. Other games failed to show transfer, despite having many action game characteristics but at a reduced intensity. The results support the common demands hypothesis. PMID:25713551

  16. Enhancing perceptual and attentional skills requires common demands between the action video games and transfer tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, Adam C; Patterson, Michael D

    2015-01-01

    Despite increasing evidence that shows action video game play improves perceptual and cognitive skills, the mechanisms of transfer are not well-understood. In line with previous work, we suggest that transfer is dependent upon common demands between the game and transfer task. In the current study, participants played one of four action games with varying speed, visual, and attentional demands for 20 h. We examined whether training enhanced performance for attentional blink, selective attention, attending to multiple items, visual search and auditory detection. Non-gamers who played the game (Modern Combat) with the highest demands showed transfer to tasks of attentional blink and attending to multiple items. The game (MGS Touch) with fewer attentional demands also decreased attentional blink, but to a lesser degree. Other games failed to show transfer, despite having many action game characteristics but at a reduced intensity. The results support the common demands hypothesis.

  17. Enhancing perceptual and attentional skills requires common demands between the action video games and transfer tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Oei

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing evidence that shows action video game play improves perceptual and cognitive skills, the mechanisms of transfer are not well understood. In line with previous work, we suggest that transfer is dependent upon common demands between the game and transfer task. In the current study, participants played one of four action games with varying speed, visual, and attentional demands for twenty hours. We examined whether training enhanced performance for attentional blink, selective attention, attending to multiple items, visual search and auditory detection. Non-gamers who played the game (Modern Combat with the highest demands showed transfer to tasks of attentional blink and attending to multiple items. The game (MGS Touch with fewer attentional demands also decreased attentional blink, but to a lesser degree. Other games failed to show transfer, despite having many action game characteristics but at a reduced intensity. The results support the common demands hypothesis

  18. Prophylaxis vs. on-demand treatment with BAY 81-8973, a full-length plasma protein-free recombinant factor VIII product: results from a randomized trial (LEOPOLD II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavakli, K; Yang, R; Rusen, L; Beckmann, H; Tseneklidou-Stoeter, D; Maas Enriquez, M

    2015-03-01

    BAY 81-8973 is a new full-length human recombinant factor VIII product manufactured with technologies to improve consistency in glycosylation and expression to optimize clinical performance. To demonstrate superiority of prophylaxis vs. on demand therapy with BAY 81-8973 in patients with severe hemophilia A. In this multinational,randomized, open-label crossover study (LEOPOLD II;ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01233258), males aged 12–65 years with severe hemophilia A were randomized to twice-weekly prophylaxis (20-30 IU kg(-1)), 3-times-weekly prophylaxis (30-40 IU kg(-1)), or on-demand treatment with BAY 81-8973. Potency labeling for BAY 81-8973 was based on the chromogenic substrate assay or adjusted to the one-stage assay. Primary efficacy endpoint was annualized number of all bleeds (ABR). Adverse events (AEs)and immunogenicity were also assessed. Eighty patients (on demand, n = 21; twice-weekly prophylaxis, n = 28; 3-times-weekly prophylaxis, n = 31) were treated and analyzed. Mean ± SD ABR was significantly lower with prophylaxis (twice-weekly, 5.7 ± 7.2; 3-times-weekly, 4.3 ± 6.5; combined, 4.9 ± 6.8) vs. on-demand treatment (57.7 ± 24.6; P demand treatment (60.0). Median ABR was higher with twice-weekly vs. 3-times-weekly prophylaxis during the first 6-month treatment period (4.1 vs. 2.0) but was comparable in the second 6-month period (1.1 vs. 2.0). Few patients reported treatment-related AEs (4%); no treatment-related serious AEs or inhibitors were reported. Twice weekly or 3-times-weekly prophylaxis with BAY 81-8973 reduced median ABR by 97% compared with on-demand therapy, confirming the superiority of prophylaxis. Treatment with BAY 81-8973 was well tolerated.

  19. Application of Job Demands-Resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands

    OpenAIRE

    Adrianna Potocka; Małgorzata Waszkowska

    2013-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. Materials and Methods: The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. Results: The results showed that job satisfaction increased with...

  20. Centrifuges help match supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crossley, P.S.

    1980-01-01

    Since the early 1970's the enrichment market situation has changed dramatically. Falling demands and increasing production capacity has resulted in over-capacity and stockpiles of enriched uranium. New trends in the industry are considered by analysing the following issues: supply and demand; technical development; build-up plans; contracting policies; enrichment economics; and nuclear safeguards. (U.K.)

  1. Dietary fiber showed no preventive effect against colon and rectal cancers in Japanese with low fat intake: an analysis from the results of nutrition surveys from 23 Japanese prefectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugawara Kazuo

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since Fuchs' report in 1999, the reported protective effect of dietary fiber from colorectal carcinogenesis has led many researchers to question its real benefit. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between diet, especially dietary fiber and fat and colorectal cancer in Japan. Methods A multiple regression analysis (using the stepwise variable selection method was performed using the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs of colon and rectal cancer in 23 Japanese prefectures as objective variables and dietary fiber, nutrients and food groups as explanatory variables. Results As for colon cancer, the standardized partial correlation coefficients were positively significant for fat (1,13, P = 0.000, seaweeds (0.41, P = 0.026 and beans (0.45, P = 0.017 and were negatively significant for vitamin A (-0.63, P = 0.003, vitamin C (-0.42, P = 0.019 and yellow-green vegetables (-0.37, P = 0.046. For rectal cancer, the standardized partial correlation coefficient in fat (0.60, P = 0.002 was positively significant. Dietary fiber was not found to have a significant relationship with either colon or rectal cancers. Conclusions This study failed to show any protective effect of dietary fiber in subjects with a low fat intake (Japanese in this analysis, which supports Fuchs' findings in subjects with a high fat intake (US Americans.

  2. Acceleration in the care of older adults: new demands as predictors of employee burnout and engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubicek, Bettina; Korunka, Christian; Ulferts, Heike

    2013-07-01

    This paper introduces the concept of acceleration-related demands in the care of older adults. It examines these new demands and their relation to cognitive, emotional, and physical job demands and to employee well-being. Various changes in the healthcare systems of Western societies pose new demands for healthcare professionals' careers and jobs. In particular today's societal changes give rise to acceleration-related demands, which manifest themselves in work intensification and in increasing requirements to handle new technical equipment and to update one's job-related knowledge. It is, therefore, of interest to investigate the effects of these new demands on the well-being of employees. Survey. Between March-June 2010 the survey was conducted among healthcare professionals involved in care of older adults in Austria. A total of 1498 employees provided data on cognitive, emotional, and physical job demands and on acceleration-related demands. The outcome variables were the core dimensions of burnout (emotional exhaustion and depersonalization) and engagement (vigour and dedication). Hierarchical regression analyses show that acceleration-related demands explain additional variance for exhaustion, depersonalization, vigour, and dedication when controlling for cognitive, emotional, and physical demands. Furthermore, acceleration-related demands associated with increasing requirements to update one's knowledge are related to positive outcomes (vigour and dedication). Acceleration-related demands associated with an increasing work pace are related to negative outcomes such as emotional exhaustion. Results illustrate that new demands resulting from social acceleration generate potential challenges for on-the-job learning and potential risks to employees' health and well-being. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Optimal Ordering and Pricing Policies for Seasonal Products: Impacts of Demand Uncertainty and Capital Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinzhao Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With a stochastic price-dependent market demand, this paper investigates how demand uncertainty and capital constraint affect retailer’s integrated ordering and pricing policies towards seasonal products. The retailer with capital constraint is normalized to be with zero capital endowment while it can be financed by an external bank. The problems are studied under a low and high demand uncertainty scenario, respectively. Results show that when demand uncertainty level is relatively low, the retailer faced with demand uncertainty always sets a lower price than the riskless one, while its order quantity may be smaller or larger than the riskless retailer’s which depends on the level of market size. When adding a capital constraint, the retailer will strictly prefer a higher price but smaller quantity policy. However, in a high demand uncertainty scenario, the impacts are more intricate. The retailer faced with demand uncertainty will always order a larger quantity than the riskless one if demand uncertainty level is high enough (above a critical value, while the capital-constrained retailer is likely to set a lower price than the well-funded one when demand uncertainty level falls within a specific interval. Therefore, it can be further concluded that the impact of capital constraint on the retailer’s pricing decision can be influenced by different demand uncertainty levels.

  4. Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

    2008-01-01

    With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

  5. Estimating elasticity for residential electricity demand in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, G; Zheng, X; Song, F

    2012-01-01

    Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff.

  6. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  7. Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

    2018-02-01

    Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

  8. Sulphur demand growing. [Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-01-20

    Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.

  9. Enrichment demand boosts SWU prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The enrichment market is picking up significantly on very brisk demand. US utilities, which normally purchase material nine months to a year ahead of time, are already hitting the market to fill their 1996 requirements. In June, two non-US utilities, one European entity and a US utility bought SWUs, the entity in an off-market deal. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Three other US utilities entered the market during the month. Meanwhile, we count 13 more utilities getting ready to hit the market for more than 4 million SWUs. Why the surge in demand? Utilities, uncertain of the role to be played by the new US Enrichment Corp. and seeking to take advantage of low interest rates, are implementing buy and hold strategies. As a result, the upper end of NUKEM's SWU price range inched up to $78. The lower end dipped to $67 based on the European deal

  10. Effect of Physician Gender on Demand for Pap Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Tsui-Fang; Chen, Jennjou

    2014-01-01

    People’s demand for preventive medical care is one type of investment in health. The aim of this paper is to examine women’s demand for secondary prevention in Taiwan, focusing on the role a physician’s gender plays in women’s inclination to undergo Pap tests. Our estimation results show that regional ratio of female doctors has a positive and significant effect on utilization of Pap tests for the full sample and for women aged below 30. In addition, doctor’s gender matters only in utilizatio...

  11. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  12. Household electricity demand profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marszal, Anna Joanna; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Larsen, Olena Kalyanova

    2016-01-01

    Highlights •A 1-min resolution household electricity load model is presented. •Model adapts a bottom-up approach with single appliance as the main building block. •Load profiles are used to analyse the flexibility potential of household appliances. •Load profiles can be applied in other domains, .......g. building energy simulations. •The demand level of houses with different number of occupants is well captured....

  13. Demands from the school inclusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selma Norberto Matos

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available From the implementation of public policies on school inclusion, mainly those directed to the target audience of special education, the number of students with special educational needs in common classes has increased. This fact has helped to compose the picture in schools where the limitations and contradictions of the Brazilian educational system have appeared. Educational actors and authors are challenged to build knowledge able of responding to demands of daily school, concerning living and learning in diversity. Whereas this inclusive process is new in the schools, the study aimed to analyze the demands of teachers from the school inclusion. The research was qualitative and exploratory, and six teachers, their students with special educational needs and three professionals in the Nucleus of Inclusive Education from the Municipal Department of Education took in it. Technique of participant observation, field diary, semi-structured interview and questionnaire were used for data collection, while analysis of content was used for discussion of the data. The results indicate that there are achievements and contradictions in the reality of schools that themselves propose inclusive; advances and limitations resulting from the municipal politics; that the model of performance of the group of special education, in the context analyzed, may be revised or expanded; and that the teachers has demands with regard to public policy, training, and the psychologist.

  14. Supply and demand perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trienekens, Pieter

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

  15. Ethanol demand in Brazil: Regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freitas, Luciano Charlita de; Kaneko, Shinji

    2011-01-01

    Successive studies attempting to clarify national aspects of ethanol demand have assisted policy makers and producers in defining strategies, but little information is available on the dynamic of regional ethanol markets. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ethanol demand at the regional level taking into account the peculiarities of the developed center-south and the developing north-northeast regions. Regional ethanol demand is evaluated based on a set of market variables that include ethanol price, consumer's income, vehicle stock and prices of substitute fuels; i.e., gasoline and natural gas. A panel cointegration analysis with monthly observations from January 2003 to April 2010 is employed to estimate the long-run demand elasticity. The results reveal that the demand for ethanol in Brazil differs between regions. While in the center-south region the price elasticity for both ethanol and alternative fuels is high, consumption in the north-northeast is more sensitive to changes in the stock of the ethanol-powered fleet and income. These, among other evidences, suggest that the pattern of ethanol demand in the center-south region most closely resembles that in developed nations, while the pattern of demand in the north-northeast most closely resembles that in developing nations. - Research highlights: → Article consists of a first insight on regional demand for ethanol in Brazil. → It proposes a model with multiple fuels, i.e., hydrous ethanol, gasohol and natural gas. → Results evidence that figures for regional demand for ethanol differ amongst regions and with values reported for national demand. → Elasticities for the center-south keep similarities to patterns for fuel demand in developed nations while coefficients for the north-northeast are aligned to patterns on developing countries.

  16. Ethanol demand in Brazil: Regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freitas, Luciano Charlita de, E-mail: lucianofreitas@hiroshima-u.ac.j [Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Development Policy, Hiroshima University 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529 (Japan); Kaneko, Shinji [Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Development Policy, Hiroshima University 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529 (Japan)

    2011-05-15

    Successive studies attempting to clarify national aspects of ethanol demand have assisted policy makers and producers in defining strategies, but little information is available on the dynamic of regional ethanol markets. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ethanol demand at the regional level taking into account the peculiarities of the developed center-south and the developing north-northeast regions. Regional ethanol demand is evaluated based on a set of market variables that include ethanol price, consumer's income, vehicle stock and prices of substitute fuels; i.e., gasoline and natural gas. A panel cointegration analysis with monthly observations from January 2003 to April 2010 is employed to estimate the long-run demand elasticity. The results reveal that the demand for ethanol in Brazil differs between regions. While in the center-south region the price elasticity for both ethanol and alternative fuels is high, consumption in the north-northeast is more sensitive to changes in the stock of the ethanol-powered fleet and income. These, among other evidences, suggest that the pattern of ethanol demand in the center-south region most closely resembles that in developed nations, while the pattern of demand in the north-northeast most closely resembles that in developing nations. - Research highlights: {yields} Article consists of a first insight on regional demand for ethanol in Brazil. {yields} It proposes a model with multiple fuels, i.e., hydrous ethanol, gasohol and natural gas. {yields} Results evidence that figures for regional demand for ethanol differ amongst regions and with values reported for national demand. {yields} Elasticities for the center-south keep similarities to patterns for fuel demand in developed nations while coefficients for the north-northeast are aligned to patterns on developing countries.

  17. Demand for healthcare in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh C. Purohit

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In a developing country like India, allocation of scarce fiscal resources has to be based on a clear understanding of how investments in the heath sector are going to affect demand. Three aspects like overall healthcare demand, consumer decisions to use public and/or private care and role of price/quality influencing poor/rich consumer’s decisions are critical to assessing the equity implications of alternative policies. Our paper addresses these aspects through examining the pattern of healthcare demand in India. Data from the National Family Health Survey are used to model the healthcare choices that individuals make. We consider what these behavioral characteristics imply for public policy. This analysis aims to study disparities between rural and urban areas from all throughout India to five Indian states representing three levels of per capita incomes (all-India average, rich and poor. Results evidence that healthcare demand both in rural and urban areas is a commodity emerging as an essential need. Choices between public or private provider are guided by income and quality variables mainly with regard to public healthcare denoting thus a situation of very limited alternatives in terms of availing private providers. These results emphasize that existing public healthcare facilities do not serve the objective of providing care to the poor in a satisfactory manner in rural areas. Thus, any financing strategy to improve health system and reduce disparities across rich-poor states and rural-urban areas should also take into account not only overcoming inadequacy but also inefficiency in allocation and utilization of healthcare inputs.

  18. Price, environment and security: Exploring multi-modal motivation in voluntary residential peak demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyamfi, Samuel; Krumdieck, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers' network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. - Highlights: → Multiple-factor behaviour intervention is necessarily for effective residential demand response. → Security signals can achieve result comparable to price. → The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. → New Zealand's energy policy should include innovation and development of VDR programmes and technologies.

  19. Demand chain management - The evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Ericsson

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM and Demand Chain Management (DCM are among the new and debated topics concerning logistics in the literature. The question considered in this paper is: “Are these concepts needed or will they just add to the confusion?” Lasting business concepts have always evolved in close interaction between business and academia. Different approaches start out in business and they are then, more or less si- multaneously, aligned, integrated, systemised and structured in academia. In this way a terminology (or language is provided that helps in further diffusion of the concepts. There is a lack of consensus on the definition of the concept of SCM. This may be one of the major reasons for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business. Relationships in SCM span from rather loose coalitions to highly structured virtual network integrations. DCM is a highly organised chain in which the key is mutual interdependence and partnership. The purpose is to create a distinctive competence for the chain as a whole that helps to identify and satisfy customer needs and wishes. The classical research concerning vertical marketing systems is very helpful in systemising the rather unstructured discussions in current SCM research. The trend lies in increasing competition between channels rather than between companies, which in turn leads to the creation of channels with a high degree of partnership and mutual interdependence between members. These types of channels are known as organised vertical marketing systems in the classic marketing channel research. The behaviour in these types of channels, as well as the formal and informal structures, roles in the network, power and dependence relations, etc. are well covered topics in the literature. The concept of vertical marketing systems lies behind the definition of demand chains and demand chain management proposed in this paper. A

  20. Evaluation of a fast power demand response strategy using active and passive building cold storages for smart grid applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Borui; Wang, Shengwei; Yan, Chengchu; Xue, Xue

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A fast power demand response strategy is developed for smart grid applications. • The developed strategy can provide immediate and stepped power demand reduction. • The demand reduction and building indoor temperature can be predicted accurately. • The demand reduction during the DR event is stable. - Abstract: Smart grid is considered as a promising solution in improving the power reliability and sustainability where demand response is one important ingredient. Demand response (DR) is a set of demand-side activities to reduce or shift electricity use to improve the electric grid efficiency and reliability. This paper presents the investigations on the power demand alternation potential for buildings involving both active and passive cold storages to support the demand response of buildings connected to smart grids. A control strategy is developed to provide immediate and stepped power demand reduction through shutting chiller(s) down when requested. The primary control objective of the developed control strategy is to restrain the building indoor temperature rise as to maintain indoor thermal comfort within certain level during the DR event. The chiller power reduction is also controlled under certain power reduction set-point. The results show that stepped and significant power reduction can be achieved through shutting chiller(s) down when requested. The power demand reduction and indoor temperature during the DR event can be also predicted accurately. The power demand reduction is stable which is predictable for the system operators

  1. Avoiding the conflict: Metacognitive awareness drives the selection of low-demand contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desender, Kobe; Buc Calderon, Cristian; Van Opstal, Filip; Van den Bussche, Eva

    2017-07-01

    Previous research attempted to explain how humans strategically adapt behavior in order to achieve successful task performance. Recently, it has been suggested that 1 potential strategy is to avoid tasks that are too demanding. Here, we report 3 experiments that investigate the empirically neglected role of metacognitive awareness in this process. In these experiments, participants could freely choose between performing a task in either a high-demand or a low-demand context. Using subliminal priming, we ensured that participants were not aware of the visual stimuli creating these different demand contexts. Our results showed that participants who noticed a difference in task difficulty (i.e., metacognitive aware participants) developed a clear preference for the low-demand context. In contrast, participants who experienced no difference in task difficulty (i.e., metacognitive unaware participants) based their choices on variables unrelated to cognitive demand (e.g., the color or location associated with a context), and did not develop a preference for the low-demand context. Crucially, this pattern was found despite identical task performance in both metacognitive awareness groups. A multiple regression approach confirmed that metacognitive awareness was the main factor driving the preference for low-demand contexts. These results argue for an important role of metacognitive awareness in the strategic avoidance of demanding tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Power systems balancing with high penetration renewables: The potential of demand response in Hawaii

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critz, D. Karl; Busche, Sarah; Connors, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Demand response for Oahu results in system cost savings. • Demand response improves thermal power plant operations. • Increased use of wind generation possible with demand response. • WILMAR model used to simulate various levels and prices of demand response. - Abstract: The State of Hawaii’s Clean Energy policies call for 40% of the state’s electricity to be supplied by renewable sources by 2030. A recent study focusing on the island of Oahu showed that meeting large amounts of the island’s electricity needs with wind and solar introduced significant operational challenges, especially when renewable generation varies from forecasts. This paper focuses on the potential of demand response in balancing supply and demand on an hourly basis. Using the WILMAR model, various levels and prices of demand response were simulated. Results indicate that demand response has the potential to smooth overall power system operation, with production cost savings arising from both improved thermal power plant operations and increased wind production. Demand response program design and cost structure is then discussed drawing from industry experience in direct load control programs

  3. Scheduling Non-Preemptible Jobs to Minimize Peak Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Yaw

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines an important problem in smart grid energy scheduling; peaks in power demand are proportionally more expensive to generate and provision for. The issue is exacerbated in local microgrids that do not benefit from the aggregate smoothing experienced by large grids. Demand-side scheduling can reduce these peaks by taking advantage of the fact that there is often flexibility in job start times. We focus attention on the case where the jobs are non-preemptible, meaning once started, they run to completion. The associated optimization problem is called the peak demand minimization problem, and has been previously shown to be NP-hard. Our results include an optimal fixed-parameter tractable algorithm, a polynomial-time approximation algorithm, as well as an effective heuristic that can also be used in an online setting of the problem. Simulation results show that these methods can reduce peak demand by up to 50% versus on-demand scheduling for household power jobs.

  4. DEMAND FOR TURKEY MEAT: PRICE EFFECT OR SPENDING EFFECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Angel Martinez Damian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Turkey meat is a white meat demand in Mexico, however, its consumption is still low. In order to explore the convenience of expanding the market and foresee if the industry should compete in price or expenditure, the aim of this work is to study the demand for turkey meat as part of a protein basket; that consists of beef, chicken, pork and egg. Methodologically an almost ideal demand model was used, in an economic sense, this model allows an optimal assignment representation through budget share equations as a function of prices and real expenditure within the bundle. With statistical information from secondary sources, the results showed that the demand for turkey meat responds inelastically to price, and that the response on spending is almost one. With the estimates of price and expenditure growth rates, in terms of an expansion policy in the turkey market, results conclude that spending is the most relevant factor in demand, followed to a lesser extent by price.

  5. Alcohol demand and risk preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

    2008-12-01

    Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

  6. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  7. Tourist Demand Reactions: Symmetric or Asymmetric across the Business Cycle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronner, Fred; de Hoog, Robert

    2017-09-01

    Economizing and spending priorities on different types of vacations are investigated during two periods: an economic downturn and returning prosperity. Two nation-wide samples of vacationers are used: one during a downturn, the other one at the start of the recovery period. Through comparing the results, conclusions can be drawn about symmetric or asymmetric tourist demand across the business cycle. The main summer holiday has an asymmetric profile: being fairly crisis-resistant during a recession and showing considerable growth during an expansion. This does not apply to short vacations and day trips, each having a symmetric profile: during a recession they experience substantial reductions and during expansion comparable growth. So when talking about tourist demand in general , one cannot say that it is symmetric or asymmetric across the business cycle: it depends on the type of vacation. Differences in tourist demand are best explained by the role of Quality-of-Life for vacationers.

  8. Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

    2007-01-01

    In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey carried out among 500 households in Harare in 2003. Using a multi-stage budgeting approach, the model estimates the share of energy in total household expenditure and the shares of firewood, electricity and kerosene in total energy expenditure. Using the model results simulations show that the main policy handles to reduce the demand for firewood and to mitigate environmental degradation such as deforestation include decreasing prices of alternative fuels, notably kerosene. Moreover, in the long run sound economic policy will positively impact on the energy budget whereas education and the degree of electrification will contribute to a reduction of the use of firewood

  9. Coal demand prediction based on a support vector machine model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia, Cun-liang; Wu, Hai-shan; Gong, Dun-wei [China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electronic Engineering

    2007-01-15

    A forecasting model for coal demand of China using a support vector regression was constructed. With the selected embedding dimension, the output vectors and input vectors were constructed based on the coal demand of China from 1980 to 2002. After compared with lineal kernel and Sigmoid kernel, a radial basis function(RBF) was adopted as the kernel function. By analyzing the relationship between the error margin of prediction and the model parameters, the proper parameters were chosen. The support vector machines (SVM) model with multi-input and single output was proposed. Compared the predictor based on RBF neural networks with test datasets, the results show that the SVM predictor has higher precision and greater generalization ability. In the end, the coal demand from 2003 to 2006 is accurately forecasted. l0 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

  10. Demand for natural gas: residential and commercial markets in Ontario and British Columbia. [Econometric-model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, E R [Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver; Watkins, G C

    1977-02-01

    An econometric model is used to project natural gas demand in the residential and commercial market sectors. The model specification is a generalization of one developed by Balestra and Nerlove (Econometrica, 34: 585-612(1966)). Demand that is potentially variable because it is not committed to past investments (flexibe demand) is distinguished from demand that is inflexible because it is tied to existing equipment stocks (captive demand). Attention is focused on the effect of temperature variations on gas demand. The nonlinear equation system is estimated by a maximum-likelihood method, using annual data for British Columbia and Ontario during the period of 1959 to 1974. Results show that only in the long run does price have a significant impact on demand. The model is applicable for medium-term policy simulation, but is limited to natural gas fuel. 15 references.

  11. Ethane supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamerson, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    Estimates are given for ethane production, chiefly from the Gulf Coast area. Increase in interregional transfers are predicted. Comparisons from 1992 through 1995 are made. The author concludes the following: ethane will be supply limited over the decade of the 90's; values will be over competing feedstocks; minimum practical demands will be close to available supply; regional relationships will reflect pipeline tariffs; purity ethane/EP spreads may narrow with new Mt. Belvieu fractionation capacity; new domestic supplies will back out imports; and Ethane's share of ethylene production may drop over the period

  12. Road infrastructure and demand induction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder; Lahrmann, Harry

    2006-01-01

    a long screenline is used to measure the development in aggregate demand in selected corridors. The paper analyses demand induction by establishing time series of aggregate demand that is compared with the national traffic index. Significant trend breaks in the association between aggregate demand...... in the corridors and the national index, following the opening of motorways or bridges, indicates demand induction by infrastructure expansion in a number of instances. Lack of significant trend breaks following opening year is found in peripheral areas where major population centres are missing. This indicates...... the necessity of some latent demand within suitable travel range for new infrastructure elements to produce significant amounts of induced demand. Estimates of demand induction as a percentage of the realised demand five years after opening are between 10% and 67% for new motorway sections depending...

  13. Climate change and peak demand for electricity: Evaluating policies for reducing peak demand under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Abigail Walker

    problems, pricing approaches are not well suited to ensure system reliability. This research shows that direct quantity controls are better suited for avoiding catastrophic failure that results when demand exceeds supply capacity.

  14. Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahouli, Sondes

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular , the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

  15. Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahouli, Sondes, E-mail: sondes.kahouli@univ-nantes.f [Universite de Nantes, Laboratoire d' Economie et de Management de Nantes Atlantique (LEMNA), Institut d' Economie et de Management de Nantes-I.A.E., Chemin de la Censive du Tertre-B.P. 52231, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3 (France)

    2011-01-15

    In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular , the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

  16. Re-examining uranium supply and demand. New insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahouli, Sondes [Universite de Nantes, Laboratoire d' Economie et de Management de Nantes Atlantique (LEMNA), Institut d' Economie et de Management de Nantes - I.A.E., Chemin de la Censive du Tertre - B.P. 52231, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3 (France)

    2011-01-15

    In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular, the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

  17. Does responsive pricing smooth demand shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Pascal, Courty; Mario, Pagliero

    2011-01-01

    Using data from a unique pricing experiment, we investigate Vickrey’s conjecture that responsive pricing can be used to smooth both predictable and unpredictable demand shocks. Our evidence shows that increasing the responsiveness of price to demand conditions reduces the magnitude of deviations in capacity utilization rates from a pre-determined target level. A 10 percent increase in price variability leads to a decrease in the variability of capacity utilization rates between...

  18. Demand for electrical energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.

    1983-01-01

    The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr

  19. Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor

    2008-07-15

    Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

  20. Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolaji Adesola Adesoye

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the macroeconomic effects of aggregate export demand in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1970 and 2013. The paper made use of the ordinary least square method to analyse the long-run relationship for the period under study. The empirical results confirm that there exists a unique and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among export volume, world income, crude oil price, domestic output, exchange rate and cost of doing business. The estimated results show that domestic income has the highest elasticity, followed by world’s output and cost of doing business, which all report positive relations. Other macroeconomic factors reported negative relationship with aggregate export volume. Thus, an important policy implication of our findings is that stabilizing Nigeria’s export earnings potential by counteracting the external factors that influence adversely the Nigerian exports such as crude oil price and cost of doing business.

  1. Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

  2. Study of forecasting maximum demand of electric power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, B.C.; Hwang, Y.J. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    As far as the past performances of power supply and demand in Korea is concerned, one of the striking phenomena is that there have been repeated periodic surpluses and shortages of power generation facilities. Precise assumption and prediction of power demands is the basic work in establishing a supply plan and carrying out the right policy since facilities investment of the power generation industry requires a tremendous amount of capital and a long construction period. The purpose of this study is to study a model for the inference and prediction of a more precise maximum demand under these backgrounds. The non-parametric model considered in this study, paying attention to meteorological factors such as temperature and humidity, does not have a simple proportionate relationship with the maximum power demand, but affects it through mutual complicated nonlinear interaction. I used the non-parametric inference technique by introducing meteorological effects without importing any literal assumption on the interaction of temperature and humidity preliminarily. According to the analysis result, it is found that the non-parametric model that introduces the number of tropical nights which shows the continuity of the meteorological effect has better prediction power than the linear model. The non- parametric model that considers both the number of tropical nights and the number of cooling days at the same time is a model for predicting maximum demand. 7 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.

  3. Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Camilo Paz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

  4. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  5. Effects of visually demanding near work on trapezius muscle activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zetterberg, C; Forsman, M; Richter, H O

    2013-10-01

    Poor visual ergonomics is associated with visual and neck/shoulder discomfort, but the relation between visual demands and neck/shoulder muscle activity is unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate whether trapezius muscle activity was affected by: (i) eye-lens accommodation; (ii) incongruence between accommodation and convergence; and (iii) presence of neck/shoulder discomfort. Sixty-six participants (33 controls and 33 with neck pain) performed visually demanding near work under four different trial-lens conditions. Results showed that eye-lens accommodation per se did not affect trapezius muscle activity significantly. However, when incongruence between accommodation and convergence was present, a significant positive relationship between eye-lens accommodation and trapezius muscle activity was found. There were no significant group-differences. It was concluded that incongruence between accommodation and convergence is an important factor in the relation between visually demanding near work and trapezius muscle activity. The relatively low demands on accommodation and convergence in the present study imply that visually demanding near work may contribute to increased muscle activity, and over time to the development of near work related neck/shoulder discomfort. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Future Parking Demand at Rail Stations in Klang Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Phooi Wai

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Klang Valley, Malaysia is currently undergoing a massive development of rail transportation system expansion where the current integrated rail transit system will see new extensions of two MRT lines and an LRT line by year 2020. By year 2017, the first MRT line will be ready to run with 31 new rail stations connected to the current passenger rail network. The existing Park and Ride facilities in Klang Valley are commonly known as being unable to sufficiently cater for the current parking space demand. Therefore, with the expansion of many additional rail stations which are rapidly under construction, there are doubts that the future parking space at rail stations will be able to accommodate the sudden rise of rail passengers. Although the authorities are increasing parking bays at various locations, will the future parking demand at rail stations be sufficient? This paper studies the factors influencing parking demand in terms of population, car ownership, new car registrations and passenger rail ridership and estimating the future parking demand using Linear Regression method. Result shows that the forecasted parking demand at rail stations after the implementation of the first new MRT system in 2017 is 2.7 times more than in 2014.

  7. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  8. Spanish version of Bus Drivers' Job Demands Scale (BDJD-24).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boada-Grau, Joan; Prizmic-Kuzmica, Aldo-Javier; González-Fernández, Marcos-David; Vigil-Colet, Andreu

    2013-01-01

    Karasek and Theorell's Job Demands-Control Model argues that adverse health-related outcomes, both psychological and physiological, arise from a combination of high job demand and a low level of job control. The objective was to adapt Meijman and Kompier's Bus Drivers' Job Demands Scale (BDJD-24), which enables us to assess the job demands of bus drivers, to Spanish. The final version of the Spanish adaptation was applied to a sample made up of 287 bus drivers living in Spain (80.1% men and 19.9% women), whose average age was 40.44 (SD= 11.78). The results yielded a three-factor structure for the scale used: Time Pressure, Safety, and Passengers. These findings confirm that the Spanish version replicates the factor structure of the original English scale. The reliability of the three subscales was acceptable, ranging from .75 to .84. Furthermore, the subscales were also related to different external correlates and to other scales and showed good convergent and criterion validity. The present instrument can be used to evaluate job demands of bus drivers, as its psychometrics are substantially sound.

  9. Bayesian Analysis of Demand Elasticity in the Italian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Chiara D'Errico

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The liberalization of the Italian electricity market is a decade old. Within these last ten years, the supply side has been extensively analyzed, but not the demand side. The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for estimation of the demand elasticity, based on Bayesian methods applied to the Italian electricity market. We used individual demand bids data in the day-ahead market in the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX, for 2011, in order to construct an aggregate demand function at the hourly level. We took into account the existence of both elastic and inelastic bidders on the demand side. The empirical results show that elasticity varies significantly during the day and across periods of the year. In addition, the elasticity hourly distribution is clearly skewed and more so in the daily hours. The Bayesian method is a useful tool for policy-making, insofar as the regulator can start with a priori historical information on market behavior and estimate actual market outcomes in response to new policy actions.

  10. Market demands to Danish pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone

    2001-01-01

    position on its markets. It is expected that results of the analysis will be part of superior strategic decisions for the Danish pork sector as regards future Danish pork export markets. The market demands to be identified will therefore be evaluated in relation to resources and competences within the line...... of business. The study takes its starting point in a value chain perspective. The value chain covers the product- and distribution stages a product passes through before reaching the consumers. The value chain perspective presumes that added value is accumulated when a product passes through the stages...

  11. Uranium, resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The thirteenth edition of the report looks at recent developments and their impact on the short term (i.e. to the year 2005) and presents a longer term (to 2030) analysis of supply possibilities in the context of a range of requirement scenarios. It presents results of a 1989 review of uranium supply and demand in the World Outside Centrally Planned Economies Areas. It contains updated information on uranium exploration activities, resources and production for over 40 countries including a few CPEs, covering the period 1987 and 1988

  12. Province gets serious about demand management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2003-01-01

    Directives from the Minister to the Ontario Energy Board to review options for demand-side management and demand reduction activities, and discussion papers describing the policy framework needed to implement demand management, are indications of renewed interest by the provincial government in demand-side management of Ontario's electric power supply. This renewed interest comes on the hills of a 5.5 per cent increase in electricity use, a 33 per cent increase in imports, and consumption records broken in 10 of the last 12 months. A 117-page study was released in April by Navigant Consulting, entitled 'Demand response blueprint for Ontario' which estimates that if the Ontario market had 250 MW of additional demand response, customers providing the demand response would have saved $20 million by reducing their demand when HOEP was greater than $120/MWh, while other customers would have saved $170 million due to lower HOEP, and would have enjoyed greater reliability as a result of the increase in reserve margins. Other than price signals to induce customers to save, the Navigant report suggest paying customers not to consume during peak periods. The report estimates that such a policy could generate a total demand response of 350 MW and a $235 million reduction in revenue to generators. The Navigan report also includes a large number of detailed analysis and recommendations. One among them is for the extensive use of interval meters for customers with loads over 200 kW. The report tends to be critical of the recent price freeze ordered by the Ontario government, claiming that the freeze could increase consumption, making prices more volatile and increasing the cost to the government even more. Successful demand response programs from California, New York and the New England states are cited as examples for Ontario to emulate

  13. Strategies for Demand Response in Commercial Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, David S.; Kiliccote, Sila; Motegi, Naoya; Piette, Mary Ann

    2006-06-20

    This paper describes strategies that can be used in commercial buildings to temporarily reduce electric load in response to electric grid emergencies in which supplies are limited or in response to high prices that would be incurred if these strategies were not employed. The demand response strategies discussed herein are based on the results of three years of automated demand response field tests in which 28 commercial facilities with an occupied area totaling over 11 million ft{sup 2} were tested. Although the demand response events in the field tests were initiated remotely and performed automatically, the strategies used could also be initiated by on-site building operators and performed manually, if desired. While energy efficiency measures can be used during normal building operations, demand response measures are transient; they are employed to produce a temporary reduction in demand. Demand response strategies achieve reductions in electric demand by temporarily reducing the level of service in facilities. Heating ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting are the systems most commonly adjusted for demand response in commercial buildings. The goal of demand response strategies is to meet the electric shed savings targets while minimizing any negative impacts on the occupants of the buildings or the processes that they perform. Occupant complaints were minimal in the field tests. In some cases, ''reductions'' in service level actually improved occupant comfort or productivity. In other cases, permanent improvements in efficiency were discovered through the planning and implementation of ''temporary'' demand response strategies. The DR strategies that are available to a given facility are based on factors such as the type of HVAC, lighting and energy management and control systems (EMCS) installed at the site.

  14. Mechanical demands of kettlebell swing exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Jason P; Lauder, Mike A

    2012-12-01

    The aims of this study were to establish mechanical demands of kettlebell swing exercise and provide context by comparing them to mechanical demands of back squat and jump squat exercise. Sixteen men performed 2 sets of 10 swings with 16, 24, and 32 kg, 2 back squats with 20, 40, 60, and 80% 1-repetition maximum (1RM), and 2 jump squats with 0, 20, 40, and 60% 1RM. Sagittal plane motion and ground reaction forces (GRFs) were recorded during swing performance, and GRFs were recorded during back and jump squat performances. Net impulse, and peak and mean propulsion phase force and power applied to the center of mass (CM) were obtained from GRF data and kettlebell displacement and velocity from motion data. The results of repeated measures analysis of variance showed that all swing CM measures were maximized during the 32-kg condition but that velocity of the kettlebell was maximized during the 16-kg condition; displacement was consistent across different loads. Peak and mean force tended to be greater during back and jump squat performances, but swing peak and mean power were greater than back squat power and largely comparable with jump squat power. However, the highest net impulse was recorded during swing exercise with 32 kg (276.1 ± 45.3 N·s vs. 60% 1RM back squat: 182.8 ± 43.1 N·s, and 40% jump squat: 231.3 ± 47.1 N·s). These findings indicate a large mechanical demand during swing exercise that could make swing exercise a useful addition to strength and conditioning programs that aim to develop the ability to rapidly apply force.

  15. Matching energy sources to demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendry, A.

    1979-01-01

    Diagrams show the current pattern of energy usage in Scotland; primary energy inputs; the various classes of user; the disposition of input energy in terms of useful and waste energy; an energy flow diagram showing the proportions of primary fuels taken by the various user groups and the proportions of useful energy derived by each. Within the S.S.E.B. area, installed capacity and maximum demand are shown for the present and projected future to the year 2000. A possible energy flow diagram for Scotland in 1996 is shown. The more efficient use of energy is discussed, with particular reference to the use of electricity. The primary energy inputs considered are oil, coal, nuclear, hydro and gas. (U.K.)

  16. Demand for male contraception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, Emily; Bishai, David

    2012-10-01

    The biological basis for male contraception was established decades ago, but despite promising breakthroughs and the financial burden men increasingly bear due to better enforcement of child support policies, no viable alternative to the condom has been brought to market. Men who wish to control their fertility must rely on female compliance with contraceptives, barrier methods, vasectomy or abstinence. Over the last 10 years, the pharmaceutical industry has abandoned most of its investment in the field, leaving only nonprofit organisations and public entities pursuing male contraception. Leading explanations are uncertain forecasts of market demand pitted against the need for critical investments to demonstrate the safety of existing candidate products. This paper explores the developments and challenges in male contraception research. We produce preliminary estimates of potential market size for a safe and effective male contraceptive based on available data to estimate the potential market for a novel male method.

  17. Animating the Ethical Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vistisen, Peter; Jensen, Thessa; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the challenge of attaining ethical user stances during the design process of products and services and proposes animation-based sketching as a design method, which supports elaborating and examining different ethical stances towards the user. The discussion is qualified...... by an empirical study of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) in a Triple Helix constellation. Using a three-week long innovation workshop, U- CrAc, involving 16 Danish companies and organisations and 142 students as empirical data, we discuss how animation-based sketching can explore not yet existing user...... dispositions, as well as create an incentive for ethical conduct in development and innovation processes. The ethical fulcrum evolves around Løgstrup’s Ethical Demand and his notion of spontaneous life manifestations. From this, three ethical stances are developed; apathy, sympathy and empathy. By exploring...

  18. PROOF on Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malzacher, Peter; Manafov, Anar

    2010-01-01

    PROOF on Demand (PoD) is a set of utilities, which allows starting a PROOF cluster at user request, on any resource management system. It provides a plug-in based system, which allows to use different job submission frontends, such as LSF or gLite WMS. Main components of PoD are the PROOFAgent and the PAConsole. PROOFAgent provides the communication layer between the PROOF master on the local machine and the PROOF workers on the remote resources, possibly behind a firewall. PAConsole provides a user-friendly GUI, which is used to setup, manage, and shutdown the dynamic PROOF cluster. Installation is simple and doesn't require administrator privileges, and all the processes run in user space. PoD gives users, who don't have a centrally-administrated static PROOF cluster at their institute, the possibility to enjoy the full power of interactive analysis with PROOF.

  19. SELECTED MACROECONOMIC FACTORS OBSERVATION IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE OBSERVATION PERIOD 2000-2012, SHOWING RESULTS FROM 2008 TO 2012.

    OpenAIRE

    BOGDAN LABAN; ŽELJKO GRUBLJEŠIĆ; VERA POPOVIĆ; VLADIMIR MALETIĆ; VESNA PETROVIĆ

    2017-01-01

    The application of the neoliberal concept in the Western Balkans has had effects on the economies of those countries that can say das resulted in unsustainable economic growth and macroeconomic instability. Besides the application of the same given the developments that had features of weakness especially since 2008., from the onset of the global economic crisis. The consequences of the liberalization of international economic developments have enabled the countries of the West...

  20. Household energy demand. Empirical studies concerning Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dargay, J; Lundin, A

    1978-06-01

    This paper investigates the effects of energy policy on households in Sweden and provides the material necessary for evaluation of current and proposed energy-conservation measures. Emphasis is placed on the impact of enery taxation or price changes on household demand for electricity, heating oil, and gasoline and the consequences of such measures for income distribution. The results of the Swedish studies of household demand for heating oil and gasoline indicate that price changes can have a considerable long run impact on fuel utilization. In the short run, price responsiveness is notably reduced, but it is nevertheless of consequence for energy demand.

  1. [Application of job demands-resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potocka, Adrianna; Waszkowska, Małgorzata

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p job resources and job demands [F(1.474) = 4.004; F(1.474) = 4.166; p job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474) = 2.748; p job demands and personal resources [F(3.474) = 3.021; p job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1) in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001) or low (p = 0.0157); 2) when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001). The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees.

  2. Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Telfah

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in

  3. Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telfah, Dua'a. B.; Minciardi, Riccardo; Roth, Giorgio

    2018-06-01

    Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to

  4. Water stress as a trigger of demand change: exploring the implications for drought planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.

    2015-12-01

    Drought in the Anthropocene is a function of both supply and demand. Despite its importance, demand is typically incorporated into planning models exogenously using a single scenario of demand change over time. Alternatively, demand is incorporated endogenously in hydro-economic models based on the assumption of rationality. However, actors are constrained by limited information and information processing capabilities, casting doubt on the rationality assumption. Though the risk of water shortage changes incrementally with demand growth and hydrologic change, significant shifts in management are punctuated and often linked to periods of stress. The observation of lasting decreases in per capita demands in a number of cities during periods of water stress prompts an alternate hypothesis: the occurrence of water stress increases the tendency of cities to promote and enforce efficient technologies and behaviors and the tendency of users to adopt them. We show the relevance of this hypothesis by building a model of a hypothetical surface water system to answer the following question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? The model links the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). Under SOP, demand is fulfilled unless available supply drops below demand; under HP, water releases are reduced in anticipation of a deficit to decrease the risk of a large shortfall. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decrease during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies.

  5. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  6. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  7. Demand for food products in Finland: A demand system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilkka P. Laurila

    1994-07-01

    Full Text Available The study was concerned with the estimation of food-demand parameters in a system context. The patterns of food consumption in Finland were presented over the period 1950-1991, and a complete demand system of food expenditures was estimated. Price and expenditure elasticities of demand were derived, and the results were used to obtain projections on future consumption. While the real expenditure on food has increased, the budget share of food has decreased. In the early 19505, combined Food-at-Home and Food-away-from-Home corresponded to about 40% of consumers’ total expenditure. In 1991 the share was 28%. There was a shift to meals eaten outside the home. While the budget share of Food-away-from-Home increased from 3% to 7% over the observation period, Food-at-Home fell from 37% to 21%, and Food-at-Home excluding Alcoholic Drinks fell from 34% to 16%. Within Food-at-Home, the budget shares of the broad aggregate groups, Animalia (food from animal sources, Beverages, and Vegetablia (food from vegetable sources, remained about the same over the four decades, while structural change took place within the aggregates. Within Animalia, consumption shifted from Dairy Products (other than Fresh Milk to Meat and Fish. Within Beverages, consumption shifted from Fresh Milk and Hot Drinks to Alcoholic Drinks and Soft Drinks. Within Vegetablia, consumption shifted from Flour to Fruits, while the shares of Bread and Cake and Vegetables remained about the same. As the complete demand system, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS was employed. The conventional AIDS was extended by developing a dynamic generalisation of the model and allowing for systematic shifts in structural relationships over time. A four-stage budgeting system was specified, consisting of seven sub-systems (groups, and covering 18 food categories. Tests on parameter restrictions and misspecification tests were used to choose the most preferred model specification for each group. Generally

  8. The energy demand in the Narino Department

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

    2000-01-01

    In the object of making a first approach of regional energy requirements analysis and the good way of satisfying them, the UPME undertook a global energy study for the Narino Department. In this study (UPME 1999) was carried out an analysis of the energy demand and of the socioeconomic factors that determine it; they were also studied the consumptions and the current energy offer and the alternatives of future evolution, with the purpose of having the basic tools of a departmental energy plan. The present article refers specifically to the analysis of the demand and it seeks to show the readers the complexity and the volume of necessary information to carry out the demand studies. They are multiple factors that determine the energy demand in the Narino Department. The size, growth populations, geographical distribution and cultural characteristic, the border condition, the faulty infrastructure of communications, the agricultural economic structure and the low entrance per capita

  9. Microeconomics and the demand for space heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1977-12-01

    The techniques of economic utility theory are combined with the technical equations for heat loss from a dwelling to give insight into the variation of consumer demand for space heating. A theoretical relationship is established between the performance of the occupied dwelling as the external temperature falls and the short-run income elasticity of energy demand. The analysis is applied to studies of UK heating practice in the 1950s and the implied indifference map for thermal comfort deduced. This indifference map is found to show a considerable economic propensity to absorb some of the potential savings from energy conservation measurements in higher internal temperatures. The effect found is sufficiently large to have consequences for future energy planning if it were still present in the UK domestic sector. The analysis highlights a number of points that should aid the interpretation of field experiments on domestic energy consumption. In particular, it is shown that unless great care is taken to separate out the technical and economic origins of internal temperature variation, the results of field studies on the effectiveness of conservation techniques may only be of shortlived value.

  10. One patient with schizophrenia showed reduced drug-induced extrapyramidal symptoms as a result of an alternative regimen of treatment with paliperidone 3 and 6 mg every other day.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Hidenobu; Hibino, Hiroyuki; Inoue, Yuichi; Matsumoto, Hideo; Mikami, Katsunaka

    2017-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a chronic disease that requires long-term management with antipsychotics. Antipsychotic drugs are given by tapering their dose, extending the dosing interval, and so on, as part of a treatment strategy to minimize the adverse effects while at the same time maintaining efficacy. We report the case of one patient with schizophrenia in whom the clinical symptoms were alleviated after treatment with 6 mg paliperidone. However, the patient developed extrapyramidal syndrome, for which 3 and 6 mg paliperidone were administered alternately every other day. Extrapyramidal syndrome was assessed using the Drug-Induced Extrapyramidal Symptoms Scale, Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale, or Barnes Akathisia Scale. There was improvement in Drug-Induced Extrapyramidal Symptoms Scale score and Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale score. However, there was almost no change in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale total score, positive score, negative score, or general score. The results indicate the possibility of lessened adverse effects as a result of an alternative regimen of treatment with paliperidone 3 and 6 mg every other day in the maintenance phase.

  11. Dramatic Demand Reduction In The Desert Southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehm, Robert [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hsieh, Sean [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Lee, Joon [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Baghzouz, Yahia [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Cross, Andrew [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Chatterjee, Sarah [NV Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2015-07-06

    adjusting settings. In a sense the customer can choose between greater comfort and greater money savings during demand response circumstances. Finally a battery application was to be considered. Initially it was thought that a large battery (probably a sodium-sulfur type) would be installed. However, after the contract was awarded, it was determined that a single, centrally-located battery system would not be appropriate for many reasons, including that with the build out plan there would not be any location to put it. The price had risen substantially since the budget for the project was put together. Also, that type of battery has to be kept hot all the time, but its use was only sought for summer operation. Hence, individual house batteries would be used, and these are discussed at the end of this report. Many aspects of the energy use for climate control in selected houses were monitored before residents moved in. This was done both to understand the magnitude of the energy flows but also to have data that could be compared to the computer simulations. The latter would be used to evaluate various aspects of our plan. It was found that good agreement existed between actual energy use and computed energy use. Hence, various studies were performed via simulations. Performance simulations showed the impact on peak energy usage between a code built house of same size and shape compared to the Villa Trieste homes with and without the PV arrays on the latter. Computations were also used to understand the effect of varying orientations of the houses in this typical housing development, including the effect of PV electrical generation. Energy conservation features of the Villa Trieste homes decreased the energy use during peak times (as well as all others), but the resulting decreased peak occurred at about the same time as the code-built houses. Consideration of the PV generation decreases the grid energy use further during daylight hours, but did not extend long enough many

  12. SELECTED MACROECONOMIC FACTORS OBSERVATION IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE OBSERVATION PERIOD 2000-2012, SHOWING RESULTS FROM 2008 TO 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGDAN LABAN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of the neoliberal concept in the Western Balkans has had effects on the economies of those countries that can say das resulted in unsustainable economic growth and macroeconomic instability. Besides the application of the same given the developments that had features of weakness especially since 2008., from the onset of the global economic crisis. The consequences of the liberalization of international economic developments have enabled the countries of the Western Balkans obtain foreign investment in the form of foreign direct investment, but their economies have done even more dependent on foreign capital, which is increasingly going in economic activities that have a faster way could fertilize the invested capital.

  13. Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yong

    optimization problem when the objective is to minimize the expected total cost and discomfort, then since the decision maker is likely to be risk-averse, and she wants to protect herself from price spikes, we study the robust optimization problem to address the risk-aversion of the decision maker. We conduct numerical studies to evaluate the price of robustness. Next, we present a detailed model that manages multiple types of flexible demand in the absence of knowledge regarding the distributions of related stochastic processes. Specifically, we consider the case in which time-varying prices with general structures are offered to users, and an energy management system for each household makes optimal energy usage, storage, and trading decisions according to the preferences of users. Because of the uncertainties associated with electricity prices, local generation, and the arrival processes of demand, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model, and outline a novel and tractable ADP approach to overcome the curses of dimensionality. Then, we perform numerical studies, whose results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ADP approach. At last, we propose another approximation approach based on Q-learning. In addition, we also develop another decentralization-based heuristic. Both the Q-learning approach and the heuristic make necessary assumptions on the knowledge of information, and each of them has unique advantages. We conduct numerical studies on a testing problem. The simulation results show that both the Q-learning and the decentralization based heuristic approaches work well. Lastly, we conclude the paper with some discussions on future extension directions.

  14. The analysis of indiference and the price elasticity of demand between different categories of agricultural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukadinović Predrag

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the analysis of the price elasticity of demand of four different categories of agricultural products in the Republic of Serbia was described. Differentiating the price and demand of these products by sales points, and using the least squares approximation method, the elasticity for all different agricultural categories was expressed in the functional form. According to this, the coefficients of elasticity of the price and demand were computed and between different agricultural categories were analyzed. The results we obtained show that the market of agricultural products in Serbia is mostly inelastic because the coefficients of inelasticity and indifference of demand to change of prices, are dominant. The influence of factors on the elasticity of demand that are not of price character, proved to be very pronounced. The relationship of the two segments of agricultural market (markets and shops was also analysed and it was demonstrated that these two segments have a slight correlation.

  15. Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Victor, David G.

    2009-01-01

    Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from...... the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas...... competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand...

  16. Effects of Nurses' Perceptions of Actual and Demanded Competence on Turnover Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, Miyuki; Yamamoto, Masako; Sato, Yoko; Imai, Takiko; Kawamoto, Mitsuko

    2017-10-01

    With the growing focus on continuous professional development, demands placed on nurses to uphold nursing competence have been increasing. This study examined how nurses with different lengths of clinical experience perceived the relationship between their actual competence and the competence they felt was demanded of them, and how this relationship was related to their turnover intentions. Survey questionnaires were distributed to 1,377 nurses, of whom 765 returned usable completed forms. The results showed that across all the groups of clinical experience, nurses perceived the demanded competence levels to be higher than their actual competence levels. However, turnover intentions were not related to nurses' perceptions of demanded competence and were negatively related to perceptions of actual competence. The levels of competence demanded should not be considered as threats for nurses. Improving nurses' competence may reduce their turnover intentions.

  17. Evaluation of real-time data obtained from gravimetric preparation of antineoplastic agents shows medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact: Results of a large-scale, multicentre, multinational, retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terkola, R; Czejka, M; Bérubé, J

    2017-08-01

    Medication errors are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality especially with antineoplastic drugs, owing to their narrow therapeutic index. Gravimetric workflow software systems have the potential to reduce volumetric errors during intravenous antineoplastic drug preparation which may occur when verification is reliant on visual inspection. Our aim was to detect medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact as determined by the rate of prevented medication errors in chemotherapy compounding after implementation of gravimetric measurement. A large-scale, retrospective analysis of data was carried out, related to medication errors identified during preparation of antineoplastic drugs in 10 pharmacy services ("centres") in five European countries following the introduction of an intravenous workflow software gravimetric system. Errors were defined as errors in dose volumes outside tolerance levels, identified during weighing stages of preparation of chemotherapy solutions which would not otherwise have been detected by conventional visual inspection. The gravimetric system detected that 7.89% of the 759 060 doses of antineoplastic drugs prepared at participating centres between July 2011 and October 2015 had error levels outside the accepted tolerance range set by individual centres, and prevented these doses from reaching patients. The proportion of antineoplastic preparations with deviations >10% ranged from 0.49% to 5.04% across sites, with a mean of 2.25%. The proportion of preparations with deviations >20% ranged from 0.21% to 1.27% across sites, with a mean of 0.71%. There was considerable variation in error levels for different antineoplastic agents. Introduction of a gravimetric preparation system for antineoplastic agents detected and prevented dosing errors which would not have been recognized with traditional methods and could have resulted in toxicity or suboptimal therapeutic outcomes for patients undergoing anticancer treatment.

  18. Estimating demand schedules in hedonic analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panduro, Toke Emil; Jensen, Cathrine Ulla; Lundhede, Thomas

    The hedonic pricing method has been used extensively to obtain implicit prices for availability of urban green space, but few hedonic studies have obtained households’ preference parameters. We estimate willingness to pay functions for park availability in Copenhagen using an approach that places...... identifying restrictions on the utility function. We do this for two different measures of park availability. We apply our results to a policy scenario and show how estimates of aggregate welfare changes are highly sensitive to the measure of park availability applied. Thus, the approach in this study applies...... an alternative path for estimation of demand schedules for public goods using hedonic data. The findings also stress the importance of paying attention to how public goods are defined when undertaking welfare economic policy analyses....

  19. Novel recurrent chromosomal aberrations detected in clonal plasma cells of light chain amyloidosis patients show potential adverse prognostic effect: first results from a genome-wide copy number array analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granzow, Martin; Hegenbart, Ute; Hinderhofer, Katrin; Hose, Dirk; Seckinger, Anja; Bochtler, Tilmann; Hemminki, Kari; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Schönland, Stefan O; Jauch, Anna

    2017-07-01

    Immunoglobulin light chain (AL) amyloidosis is a rare plasma cell dyscrasia characterized by the deposition of abnormal amyloid fibrils in multiple organs, thus impairing their function. In the largest cohort studied up to now of 118 CD138-purified plasma cell samples from previously untreated immunoglobulin light chain amyloidosis patients, we assessed in parallel copy number alterations using high-density copy number arrays and interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (iFISH). We used fluorescence in situ hybridization probes for the IgH translocations t(11;14), t(4;14), and t(14;16) or any other IgH rearrangement as well as numerical aberrations of the chromosome loci 1q21, 8p21, 5p15/5q35, 11q22.3 or 11q23, 13q14, 15q22, 17p13, and 19q13. Recurrent gains included chromosomes 1q (36%), 9 (24%), 11q (24%), as well as 19 (15%). Recurrent losses affected chromosome 13 (29% monosomy) and partial losses of 14q (19%), 16q (14%) and 13q (12%), respectively. In 88% of patients with translocation t(11;14), the hallmark chromosomal aberration in AL amyloidosis, a concomitant gain of 11q22.3/11q23 detected by iFISH was part of the unbalanced translocation der(14)t(11;14)(q13;q32) with the breakpoint in the CCND1/MYEOV gene region. Partial loss of chromosome regions 14q and 16q were significantly associated to gain 1q. Gain 1q21 detected by iFISH almost always resulted from a gain of the long arm of chromosome 1 and not from trisomy 1, whereas deletions on chromosome 1p were rarely found. Overall and event-free survival analysis found a potential adverse prognostic effect of concomitant gain 1q and deletion 14q as well as of deletion 1p. In conclusion, in the first whole genome report of clonal plasma cells in AL amyloidosis, novel aberrations and hitherto unknown potential adverse prognostic effects were uncovered. Copyright© 2017 Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  20. LPG world supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Ch.

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

  1. The impact of task demand on visual word recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J; Zevin, J

    2014-07-11

    The left occipitotemporal cortex has been found sensitive to the hierarchy of increasingly complex features in visually presented words, from individual letters to bigrams and morphemes. However, whether this sensitivity is a stable property of the brain regions engaged by word recognition is still unclear. To address the issue, the current study investigated whether different task demands modify this sensitivity. Participants viewed real English words and stimuli with hierarchical word-likeness while performing a lexical decision task (i.e., to decide whether each presented stimulus is a real word) and a symbol detection task. General linear model and independent component analysis indicated strong activation in the fronto-parietal and temporal regions during the two tasks. Furthermore, the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula showed significant interaction effects between task demand and stimulus type in the pseudoword condition. The occipitotemporal cortex showed strong main effects for task demand and stimulus type, but no sensitivity to the hierarchical word-likeness was found. These results suggest that different task demands on semantic, phonological and orthographic processes can influence the involvement of the relevant regions during visual word recognition. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Econophysics of a ranked demand and supply resource allocation problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priel, Avner; Tamir, Boaz

    2018-01-01

    We present a two sided resource allocation problem, between demands and supplies, where both parties are ranked. For example, in Big Data problems where a set of different computational tasks is divided between a set of computers each with its own resources, or between employees and employers where both parties are ranked, the employees by their fitness and the employers by their package benefits. The allocation process can be viewed as a repeated game where in each iteration the strategy is decided by a meta-rule, based on the ranks of both parties and the results of the previous games. We show the existence of a phase transition between an absorbing state, where all demands are satisfied, and an active one where part of the demands are always left unsatisfied. The phase transition is governed by the ratio between supplies and demand. In a job allocation problem we find positive correlation between the rank of the workers and the rank of the factories; higher rank workers are usually allocated to higher ranked factories. These all suggest global emergent properties stemming from local variables. To demonstrate the global versus local relations, we introduce a local inertial force that increases the rank of employees in proportion to their persistence time in the same factory. We show that such a local force induces non trivial global effects, mostly to benefit the lower ranked employees.

  3. Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-04-01

    Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. Residential electricity demand in Singapore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.

    1992-01-01

    Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)

  5. Energy demand projection of China using a path-coefficient analysis and PSO–GA approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Zhu Kejun; Zhang Xian

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The effect mechanism of China’s energy demand is investigated detailedly. ► A hybrid algorithm PSO–GA optimal energy demands estimating model for China. ► China’s energy demand will reach 4.48 billion tce in 2015. ► The proposed method forecast shows its superiority compared with others. - Abstract: Energy demand projection is fundamental to rational energy planning formulation. The present study investigates the direct and indirect effects of five factors, namely GDP, population, proportion of industrial, proportion of urban population and coal percentage of total energy consumption on China’s energy demand, implementing a path-coefficient analysis. On this basis, a hybrid algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimal Energy Demand Estimating (PSO–GA EDE) model, is proposed for China. The coefficients of the three forms of the model (linear, exponential and quadratic model) are optimized by proposed PSO–GA. To obtain a combinational prediction of three forms, a departure coefficient method is applied to get the combinational weights. The results show that the China’s energy demand will be 4.48 billion tce in 2015. Furthermore; the proposed method forecast shows its superiority compared with other single optimization method such as GA, PSO or ACO and multiple linear regressions.

  6. Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2014-01-01

    Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...... it is the third most energy intensive sector in Croatia after transport and households. Implementing mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point...... for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model. IED model produces results which can be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy. One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant...

  7. Measuring the security of energy exports demand in OPEC economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dike, Jude Chukwudi

    2013-01-01

    One of the objectives of OPEC is the security of demand for the crude oil exports of its members. Achieving this objective is imperative with the projected decline in OECD countries' crude oil demand among other crude oil demand shocks. This paper focuses on determining the external crude oil demand security risks of OPEC member states. In assessing these risks, this study introduces two indexes. The first index, Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED), indicates the level of energy export demand security risks for OPEC members. It combines measures of export dependence, economic dependence, monopsony risk and transportation risk. The second index, Contribution to OPEC Risk Exposure (CORE), indicates the individual contribution of the OPEC members to OPEC's risk exposure. This study utilises the disaggregated index approach in measuring energy demand security risks for crude oil and natural gas and involves a country level analysis. With the disaggregated approach, the study shows that OPEC's energy export demand security risks differ across countries and energy types. - Highlights: • REED and CORE indexes are suitable measures for energy exports demand security risk. • The indexes show that energy demand security risk is different for each OPEC country. • The countries contribution to OPEC's energy demand security risk is also different. • The outcome is necessary for OPEC's common energy and climate change policies. • The outcome makes a case for oil demand security as a topical issue in the literature

  8. PENGARUH JOB DEMANDS, JOB RESOURCES DAN PERSONAL RESOURCES TERHADAP WORK ENGAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Diah Restu Ayu; M. Syamsul Maarif; Anggraini Sukmawati

    2015-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to identify the influence of job demands, job resources and personal resources toward work engagement, define the best predictors of work engagement and the influence of work engagement towards turnover intention. Structural equation modeling was used in this research to estimate the influence of variables simultaneously. This research was conducted to 116 samples of manufacturing employees. The results showed that job demands have direct effect to work engagem...

  9. Stem cells show promising results for lymphoedema treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toyserkani, Navid Mohamadpour; Quaade, Marlene Louise; Sheikh, Søren Paludan

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Lymphoedema is a debilitating condition, manifesting in excess lymphatic fluid and swelling of subcutaneous tissues. Lymphoedema is as of yet still an incurable condition and current treatment modalities are not satisfactory. The capacity of mesenchymal stem cells to promote angiogenesis......, secrete growth factors, regulate the inflammatory process, and differentiate into multiple cell types make them a potential ideal therapy for lymphoedema. Adipose tissue is the richest and most accessible source of mesenchymal stem cells and they can be harvested, isolated, and used for therapy...... in a single stage procedure as an autologous treatment. The aim of this paper was to review all studies using mesenchymal stem cells for lymphoedema treatment with a special focus on the potential use of adipose-derived stem cells. A systematic search was performed and five preclinical and two clinical...

  10. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  11. The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    Gotts, Nicholas Mark

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

  12. Employer Demand for Welfare Recipients by Race. Discussion Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Harry J.; Stoll, Michael A.

    This paper uses new survey data on employers in four large metropolitan areas to examine the determinants of employer demand for welfare recipients. Data come from a telephone survey of approximately 750 establishments. Results suggest a high level of demand for welfare recipients, although such demand appears fairly sensitive to business cycle…

  13. Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Szozda

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand planning process accuracy. Later, an overview of some recent developments in the analyzed research area is provided. Results: Based on the literature review, there is described the defined factors impact on the accuracy of demand plan in each echelon for case companies. There are considered three cases. The examples illustrate supply chains of different manufacturing companies. The focus is placed on demand planning across the supply chains. The issue of determining the accuracy of future sales plans in each echelon of supply chains and factors affecting it are raised. Taking into account the case companies demand planning process analyses, there are defined possible quality measures, that are possible to be used when forecasting the customer demand. Conclusions: One of the most important and difficult planning area in the companies is becoming planning demand. Errors in planning are reflected not just in the business resource planning but also in the entire supply chain. Presented cases show that many factors affect the proper demand planning process in the supply chain, like e.g.  information technologies, lead-time, or number of supplied materials. As it can be seen from the case studies, the model of collecting information from the market plays an important role in the demand planning process.

  14. Fuel demand in Brazil in a dynamic panel data approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Gervásio F.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of fuel consumers regarding price and income, taking recent changes in the Brazilian fuel market into account. In this market, new market rules, energy policy towards fuel diversification and introduction of flex-fuel engines have determined fuel competition among gasoline, ethanol and compressed natural gas. Using a dynamic panel data model, demand equations for these three fuels are econometrically estimated to obtain consumer adjustment coefficients, price, cross-price and income elasticities in the short and long-run. In addition, the effect of the introduction of flex-fuel engines in the market and the rationality of consumers towards efficiency constraints of the engines were tested. Apart from considerable competition, results show that the dynamics of the Brazilian fuel market revolves around ethanol instead of gasoline. While demands for gasoline and natural gas are inelastic to price, demand for ethanol is elastic in Brazil. Furthermore, after the introduction of the flex-fuel technology the sensitivity of consumers to fuel prices changed, and ethanol consumers take efficiency constrains into account when ethanol prices reach the threshold of 70% of gasoline prices. - Highlights: ► Fuel demand in Brazil is evaluated, considering the changes in the fuel market. ► A dynamic panel data model is used to fit demand equations for fuels. ► Adjustment coefficients, price, cross-price and income elasticities are estimated. ► The impact of flex-fuel technology on the consumer behavior is tested. ► The results showed that the dynamic of the fuel market revolves around ethanol. ► The flex-fuel technology increased the competition among fuels

  15. Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Demand elasticity for fast-acting demand response load under real-time pricing. • Validated first-principles logistic demand curve matches random utility model. • Logistic demand curve suitable for diversified aggregate loads market-based transactive control systems. - Abstract: This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.

  16. Addictive behavior in cinema demand: evidence from Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Sangho KIM; Donghyun PARK

    2010-01-01

    It is intuitively plausible that the demand for cinema services may be partly driven by addiction or habit. Yet there is almost no empirical literature which tests for whether cinema demand is addictive. We estimate addiction models for cinema demand using Korean time series data from 1963 to 2004. Our estimation results indicate that (i) addictive behavior characterizes the demand for cinema services, (ii) this behavior is rational, and (iii) habit is one of most important determinants of ci...

  17. Estimating the residential demand function for natural gas in Seoul with correction for sample selection bias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Lim, Hea-Jin; Kwak, Seung-Jun

    2009-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, the consumption of natural gas in Korea has increased dramatically. This increase has mainly resulted from the rise of consumption in the residential sector. The main objective of the study is to estimate households' demand function for natural gas by applying a sample selection model using data from a survey of households in Seoul. The results show that there exists a selection bias in the sample and that failure to correct for sample selection bias distorts the mean estimate, of the demand for natural gas, downward by 48.1%. In addition, according to the estimation results, the size of the house, the dummy variable for dwelling in an apartment, the dummy variable for having a bed in an inner room, and the household's income all have positive relationships with the demand for natural gas. On the other hand, the size of the family and the price of gas negatively contribute to the demand for natural gas. (author)

  18. Do Job Demands of Chinese Manufacturing Employees Predict Positive or Negative Outcomes? A Test of Competing Hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Janelle H; Sinclair, Robert R; Shi, Junqi; Wang, Mo

    2015-12-01

    Karasek's job demands-control (JDC) model posits that job control can buffer against the harmful effects of demands experienced by employees. A large volume of JDC research has obtained support for the main effects of demands and control, but not the interactive effects. Recent research on the challenge-hindrance stressors framework, however, found that work stressors may not always be deleterious, suggesting alternative hypotheses about the effects of demands and control. The present study therefore examined competing hypotheses concerning the effects of job demands on occupational health outcomes. Using a sample of 316 employees in a Chinese manufacturing company, we found that, consistent with the challenge-hindrance framework, production demands were challenge stressors associated with favourable outcomes (i.e. job satisfaction and psychological well-being). In addition, results showed that the interactive role of job control depended on the nature of outcome variables. Future recommendations and implications of findings are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Global energy demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatcher, S.R.

    1999-01-01

    Perhaps the most compelling issue the world will face in the next century is the quality of life of the increasing populations of the poorer regions of the world. Energy is the key to generating wealth and protecting the environment. Today, most of the energy generated comes from fossil fuels and there should be enough for an increase in consumption over the next half century. However, this is likely to be impacted by the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions. Various authoritative studies lead to a global energy demand projection of between 850 to 1070 EJ per year in the mid-21 st century, which is nearly three times as much as the world uses today. The studies further indicate that, unless there is a major thrust by governments to create incentives and/or to levy heavy taxes, the use of fossil fuels will continue to increase and there will be a major increase in carbon dioxide emissions globally. Most of the increase will come from the newly industrializing countries which do not have the technology or financial resources to install non-carbon energy sources such as nuclear power, and the new renewable energy technologies. The real issue for the nuclear industry is investment cost. Developing countries, in particular will have difficulty in raising capital for energy projects with a high installed cost and will have difficulties in raising large blocks of capital. A reduction in investment costs of the order of 50% with a short construction schedule is in order if nuclear power is to compete and contribute significantly to energy supply and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Current nuclear power plants and methods are simply not suited to the production of plants that will compete in this situation. Mass production designs are needed to get the benefits of cost reduction. Water cooled reactors are well demonstrated and positioned to achieve the cost reduction necessary but only via some radical thinking on the part of the designers. The reactors of

  20. Promotion and Fast Food Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy J. Richards; Luis Padilla

    2009-01-01

    Many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in North America. Industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand. We study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete / continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand. Estimates are obtained using a unique...

  1. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...

  2. Job demands-resources model

    OpenAIRE

    Bakker, Arnold; Demerouti, Eva

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerouti, 2007; Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner, & Schaufeli, 2001) and is inspired by job design and job stress theories. JD-R theory explains how job demands and resources have unique and multiplicative e...

  3. Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2018-05-01

    We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

  4. Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1969-01-01

    This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

  5. North American oil demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  6. The optimization model for multi-type customers assisting wind power consumptive considering uncertainty and demand response based on robust stochastic theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Zhongfu; Ju, Liwei; Reed, Brent; Rao, Rao; Peng, Daoxin; Li, Huanhuan; Pan, Ge

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Our research focuses on demand response behaviors of multi-type customers. • A wind power simulation method is proposed based on the Brownian motion theory. • Demand response revenue functions are proposed for multi-type customers. • A robust stochastic optimization model is proposed for wind power consumptive. • Models are built to measure the impacts of demand response on wind power consumptive. - Abstract: In order to relieve the influence of wind power uncertainty on power system operation, demand response and robust stochastic theory are introduced to build a stochastic scheduling optimization model. Firstly, this paper presents a simulation method for wind power considering external environment based on Brownian motion theory. Secondly, price-based demand response and incentive-based demand response are introduced to build demand response model. Thirdly, the paper constructs the demand response revenue functions for electric vehicle customers, business customers, industry customers and residential customers. Furthermore, robust stochastic optimization theory is introduced to build a wind power consumption stochastic optimization model. Finally, simulation analysis is taken in the IEEE 36 nodes 10 units system connected with 650 MW wind farms. The results show the robust stochastic optimization theory is better to overcome wind power uncertainty. Demand response can improve system wind power consumption capability. Besides, price-based demand response could transform customers’ load demand distribution, but its load curtailment capacity is not as obvious as incentive-based demand response. Since price-based demand response cannot transfer customer’s load demand as the same as incentive-based demand response, the comprehensive optimization effect will reach best when incentive-based demand response and price-based demand response are both introduced.

  7. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  8. Solar + Storage Synergies for Managing Commercial-Customer Demand Charges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gagnon, Pieter J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Govindarajan, Anand [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Darghouth, Naim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-10-24

    We study the synergies between behind-the-meter solar and storage in reducing commercial-customer demand charges. This follows two previous studies that examined demand charge savings for stand-alone solar in both the residential and commercial sectors. In this study we show that solar and storage show consistent synergies for demand charge management, that the magnitude of reductions are highly customer-specific, and that the magnitude of savings is influenced by the design of the electricity tariff.

  9. Daily job demands and employee work engagement: The role of daily transformational leadership behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breevaart, Kimberley; Bakker, Arnold B

    2018-07-01

    Using job demands-resources (JD-R) theory, the present study integrates the challenge stressor-hindrance stressor framework and leadership theory to investigate the relationship between daily transformational leadership behavior and employee work engagement. We hypothesized that daily transformational leadership behavior (a) sustains employee work engagement on days characterized by high challenge job demands, and (b) protects work engagement on days characterized by high hindrance job demands. Teachers filled out a short online questionnaire at the end of each workday during a 2-week period (N = 271 × 5.68 days = 1539). Results of latent moderated structural equation modeling showed that teachers' daily challenge demands (workload and cognitive demands) had a positive relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was high (vs. low). In addition, teachers' daily hindrance demands (role-conflict, but not family to work conflict) had a negative relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was low (vs. high). These findings show that the function of transformational leadership behavior changes from day to day, and depends on the type of job demand. We discuss the practical and theoretical implications of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. The power to choose. Demand response in liberalized electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Highly volatile electricity prices are becoming a more frequent and unwanted characteristic of modern electricity wholesale markets. But low demand elasticity, mainly the result of a lack of incentives and consumers' inability to control demand, means that consumer behaviour is not reflected in the cost of energy. This study analyses the impact of price-responsive demand and shows how pricing, policy and technology can be used to inform consumer behaviour and choice. Informed choice and market-based valuation of electricity supply will ensure liberalized markets are competitive, efficient, less volatile and able to provide long term security of supply. Significant benefits will occur even if only 5% of customers become responsive to price-incentives and information. And customers will respond to well designed programs, thereby developing a role in ensuring efficient price formulation for electricity. This study analyses the economic, efficiency and security benefits and identifies the changes in electricity tariffs and the network infrastructure needed to achieve greater demand response

  11. Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, Yu; Shi, Xunpeng; Zhang, Dandan

    2014-01-01

    Using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008, we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy demand/production and the related policies in China. The empirical results show that forming a cross-province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production, through cross-regional energy transfer (including both energy trade and cross-regional reallocation). In particular, reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration. The findings support the argument for a more competitive cross-province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within China. These policy implications may also be extended to the East Asia Summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted. - Highlights: • Development driving energy demand has different impacts on energy prices than others. • EMI will reduce the response of equilibrium energy prices to local demand and production. • Reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level enhance the role of EMI. • More market competition and better physical and institutional connectivity are better. • Policy implications to China may be extended to the East Asia Summit region

  12. Designing container shipping network under changing demand and freight rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Chen

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the optimization of container shipping network and its operations under changing cargo demand and freight rates. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem (MINP with an objective of maximizing the average unit ship-slot profit at three stages using analytical methodology. The issues such as empty container repositioning, ship-slot allocating, ship sizing, and container configuration are simultaneously considered based on a series of the matrices of demand for a year. To solve the model, a bi-level genetic algorithm based method is proposed. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and algorithms. The obtained results show that the suggested model can provide a more realistic solution to the issues on the basis of changing demand and freight rates and arrange a more effective approach to the optimization of container shipping network structures and operations than does the model based on the average demand.

  13. Further examination of the temporal stability of alcohol demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Murphy, James G

    2017-08-01

    Demand, or the amount of a substance consumed as a function of price, is a central dependent measure in behavioral economic research and represents the relative valuation of a substance. Although demand is often utilized as an index of substance use severity and is assumed to be relatively stable, recent experimental and clinical research has identified conditions in which demand can be manipulated, such as through craving and stress inductions, and treatment. Our study examines the 1-month reliability of the alcohol purchase task in a sample of heavy drinking college students. We also analyzed reliability in subgroup of individuals whose consumption decreased, increased, or stayed the same over the 1-month period, and in individuals with moderate/severe Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) vs. those with no/mild AUD. Reliability was moderate in the full sample, high in the group with stable consumption, and did not differ appreciably between AUD groups. Observed indices and indices derived from an exponentiated equation (Koffarnus et al., 2015) were generally comparable, although P max observed had very low reliability. Area under the curve, O max derived, and essential value showed the greatest reliability in the full sample (rs=0.75-0.77). These results provide evidence for the relative stability over time of demand and across AUD groups, particularly in those whose consumption remains stable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The Sensitivity of Residential Electricity Demand in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stranti Nastiti Kusumaningrum

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Since 2013, the residential electricity price for High VA (Volt-Ampere households has changed due to changes in pricing policies. This paper analyzes the responsiveness of residential electricity demand to the change in electricity prices and income among two different household groups (Low VA and High VA in 2011 and 2014. Using an electricity consumption model and the Quantile Regression method, the results show that residential electricity demand is price and income inelastic. Income elasticity is lower than price elasticity. Furthermore, the effects on price elasticity also found in the Low VA group, whose rate remained stable. At the same time, evidence proves the impact of the change in pricing policy on income elasticity remains unclear. This result implies that the government has to be more careful in regulating electricity prices for the low VA group, while maintaining economic stability.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6048

  15. Demand for labour 2011

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edith Josten; Jan Dirk Vlasblom; Marian de Voogd-Hamelink

    2012-01-01

    Original title: Vraag naar arbeid In order to obtain a clear picture of the position of employees on the labour market, it is important to know something about the personnel policy pursued by their employers. This publication shows how that policy has changed in the Netherlands over the last

  16. Assessment of end-use electricity consumption and peak demand by Townsville's housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Zhengen; Paevere, Phillip; Grozev, George; Egan, Stephen; Anticev, Julia

    2013-01-01

    We have developed a comprehensive model to estimate annual end-use electricity consumption and peak demand of housing stock, considering occupants' use of air conditioning systems and major appliances. The model was applied to analyse private dwellings in Townsville, Australia's largest tropical city. For the financial year (FY) 2010–11 the predicted results agreed with the actual electricity consumption with an error less than 10% for cooling thermostat settings at the standard setting temperature of 26.5 °C and at 1.0 °C higher than the standard setting. The greatest difference in monthly electricity consumption in the summer season between the model and the actual data decreased from 21% to 2% when the thermostat setting was changed from 26.5 °C to 27.5 °C. Our findings also showed that installation of solar panels in Townville houses could reduce electricity demand from the grid and would have a minor impact on the yearly peak demand. A key new feature of the model is that it can be used to predict probability distribution of energy demand considering (a) that appliances may be used randomly and (b) the way people use thermostats. The peak demand for the FY estimated from the probability distribution tracked the actual peak demand at 97% confidence level. - Highlights: • We developed a model to estimate housing stock energy consumption and peak demand. • Appliances used randomly and thermostat settings for space cooling were considered. • On-site installation of solar panels was also considered. • Its' results agree well with the actual electricity consumption and peak demand. • It shows the model could provide the probability distribution of electricity demand

  17. Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O Broin, Eoin

    2012-11-01

    In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and

  18. Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soloninko K.S.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services. Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling. The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building. Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic

  19. Demand, capacity, and access of the outpatient clinic: A framework for analysis and improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bussel, Erik Martijn; van der Voort, Marc Boudewijn Victor Rouppe; Wessel, Ronald N; van Merode, Godefridus G

    2018-06-01

    While theoretical frameworks for optimization of the outpatient processes are abundant, practical step-by-step analyses to give leads for improvement, to forecast capacity, and to support decision making are sparse. This article demonstrates how to evaluate and optimize the triad of demand, (future) capacity, and access time of the outpatient clinic using a structured six-step method. All individual logistical patient data of an orthopaedic outpatient clinic of one complete year were analysed using a 6-step method to evaluate demand, supply, and access time. Trends in the data were retrospectively analysed and evaluated for potential improvements. A model for decision making was tested. Both the analysis of the method and actual results were considered as main outcomes. More than 25 000 appointments were analysed. The 6-step method showed to be sufficient to result in valuable insights and leads for improvement. While the overall match between demand and capacity was considered adequate, the variability in capacity was much higher than in demand, thereby leading to delays in access time. Holidays and subsequent weeks showed to be of great influence for demand, capacity, and access time. Using the six-step method, several unfavourable characteristics of the outpatient clinic were revealed and a better match between demand, supply, and access time could have been reached with only minor adjustments. Last, a clinic specific prediction and decision model for demand and capacity was made using the 6-step method. The 6-step analysis can successfully be applied to redesign and improve the outpatient health care process. The results of the analysis showed that national holidays and variability in demand and capacity have a big influence on the outpatient clinic. Using the 6-step method, practical improvements in outpatient logistics were easily found and leads for future decision making were contrived. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice

  20. Harnessing the power of demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheffrin, Anjali; Yoshimura, Henry; LaPlante, David; Neenan, Bernard

    2008-03-15

    Demand response can provide a series of economic services to the market and also provide ''insurance value'' under low-likelihood, but high-impact circumstances in which grid reliablity is enhanced. Here is how ISOs and RTOs are fostering demand response within wholesale electricity markets. (author)

  1. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  2. Coal background paper. Coal demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Statistical data are presented on coal demands in IEA and OECD member countries and in other countries. Coal coaking and coaking coal consumption data are tabulated, and IEA secretariat's coal demand projections are summarized. Coal supply and production data by countries are given. Finally, coal trade data are presented, broken down for hard coal, steam coal, coking coal (imports and export). (R.P.)

  3. Demand differentiation in inventory systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn, M.J.

    1998-01-01

    This book deals with inventory systems where customer demand is categorised into different classes. Most inventory systems do not take into account individual customer preferences for a given product, and therefore handle all demand in a similar way. Nowadays, market segmentation has become a

  4. Demand Response in Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.

    2014-01-01

    In recent decades, moves toward higher integration of Renewable Energy Resources have called for fundamental changes in both the planning and operation of the overall power grid. One such change is the incorporation of Demand Response (DR), the process by which consumers can adjust their demand...

  5. Credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byiers, Bruce; Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses two industrial firm surveys to identify the key determinants of credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing. We construct five different measures of being credit constrained and estimate desired debt demand. Besides firm size and ownership structure, we find evidence that general...

  6. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &

  7. Residential energy demand in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arouca, M.; Gomes, F.M.; Rosa, L.P.

    1981-01-01

    The energy demand in Brazilian residential sector is studied, discussing the methodology for analyzing this demand from some ideas suggested, for developing an adequate method to brazilian characteristics. The residential energy consumption of several fuels in Brazil is also presented, including a comparative evaluation with the United States and France. (author)

  8. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Togeby, Mikael; Østergaard, Jacob

    This report summaries the research outcomes of the project ‘Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve (DFR)’, which has received the support from Energinet.dk’s PSO program, Grant no. 2005-2-6380. The objective of this project is to investigate the technology of using electricity demands for providing...

  9. Main Determinants of Supplementary Health Insurance Demand: (Case of Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motlagh, Soraya Nouraei; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Mahdavi, Ghadir; Ghaderi, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In the majority of developing countries, the volume of medical insurance services, provided by social insurance organizations is inadequate. Thus, supplementary medical insurance is proposed as a means to address inadequacy of medical insurance. Accordingly, in this article, we attempted to provide the context for expansion of this important branch of insurance through identification of essential factors affecting demand for supplementary medical insurance. Method: In this study, two methods were used to identify essential factors affecting choice of supplementary medical insurance including Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Bayesian logit. To this end, Excel® software was used to refine data and R® software for estimation. The present study was conducted during 2012, covering all provinces in Iran. Sample size included 18,541 urban households, selected by Statistical Center of Iran using 3-stage cluster sampling approach. In this study, all data required were collected from the Statistical Center of Iran. Results: In 2012, an overall 8.04% of the Iranian population benefited from supplementary medical insurance. Demand for supplementary insurance is a concave function of age of the household head, and peaks in middle-age when savings and income are highest. The present study results showed greater likelihood of demand for supplementary medical insurance in households with better economic status, higher educated heads, female heads, and smaller households with greater expected medical expenses, and household income is the most important factor affecting demand for supplementary medical insurance. Conclusion: Since demand for supplementary medical insurance is hugely influenced by households’ economic status, policy-makers in the health sector should devise measures to improve households’ economic or financial access to supplementary insurance services, by identifying households in the lower economic deciles, and increasing their

  10. The Optimal Replenishment Policy under Trade Credit Financing with Ramp Type Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Qin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the optimal replenishment policy for the retailer with the ramp type demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing, which is not reported in the literatures. First, the two inventory models are developed under the above situation. Second, the algorithms are given to optimize the replenishment cycle time and the order quantity for the retailer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the optimal solutions and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The results show that if the value of production rate is small, the retailer will lower the frequency of putting the orders to cut down the order cost; if the production rate is high, the demand dependent production rate has no effect on the optimal decisions. When the trade credit is less than the growth stage time, the retailer will shorten the replenishment cycle; when it is larger than the breakpoint of the demand, within the maturity stage of the products, the trade credit has no effect on the optimal order cycle and the optimal order quantity.

  11. The impact of job crafting on job demands, job resources, and well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tims, Maria; Bakker, Arnold B; Derks, Daantje

    2013-04-01

    This longitudinal study examined whether employees can impact their own well-being by crafting their job demands and resources. Based on the job demands-resources model, we hypothesized that employee job crafting would have an impact on work engagement, job satisfaction, and burnout through changes in job demands and job resources. Data was collected in a chemical plant at three time points with one month in between the measurement waves (N = 288). The results of structural equation modeling showed that employees who crafted their job resources in the first month of the study showed an increase in their structural and social resources over the course of the study (2 months). This increase in job resources was positively related to employee well-being (increased engagement and job satisfaction, and decreased burnout). Crafting job demands did not result in a change in job demands, but results revealed direct effects of crafting challenging demands on increases in well-being. We conclude that employee job crafting has a positive impact on well-being and that employees therefore should be offered opportunities to craft their own jobs.

  12. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  13. Uranium resources and supply - demand to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, R.

    2010-01-01

    Recent fluctuations in the market price for uranium have resulted in more activity in this sector over the past few years than in the preceding 20 years. Amidst this background, uranium demand is increasing. Construction of nuclear reactors is proceeding in some countries, ambitious expansion plans have been announced in others and the development of nuclear power programs to meet electricity demand and minimize greenhouse emissions in a cost effective manner is under consideration in many others. This paper reviews projections of nuclear growth and uranium demand and assesses the challenges faced by the uranium mining sector in meeting rising demand. Since the mid-1960 s, an international expert committee (the 'Uranium Group') formed by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has published biennially comprehensive updates on global uranium resources, production and demand (the 'Red Book'). The most recent in this series, based on 2007 data and published in June 2008, includes a supply/demand projection to 2030. However, much has changed since the data were collected for this projection and an assessment of these changes and their impact on uranium production is included in this presentation. It is concluded that world identified uranium resources (5.45 million t U recoverable at costs up to US$130/kg U, or US$50/lb U 3 O 8 ) are adequate to meet projected future high case nuclear power requirements. However, recent financial market turmoil and lower uranium prices, the opaque nature of the uranium market itself, increased regulatory requirements, a scarcity of the required specialized labour and the fluctuating costs of raw materials makes the process of turning uranium resources in the ground into yellowcake in the can increasingly more challenging, particularly for new entrants. Considerable investment and expertise will be required to bring about the substantial increase in mine production required to meet future demand

  14. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  15. Refrigerated Warehouse Demand Response Strategy Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Doug [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Castillo, Rafael [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Larson, Kyle [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Dobbs, Brian [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This guide summarizes demand response measures that can be implemented in refrigerated warehouses. In an appendix, it also addresses related energy efficiency opportunities. Reducing overall grid demand during peak periods and energy consumption has benefits for facility operators, grid operators, utility companies, and society. State wide demand response potential for the refrigerated warehouse sector in California is estimated to be over 22.1 Megawatts. Two categories of demand response strategies are described in this guide: load shifting and load shedding. Load shifting can be accomplished via pre-cooling, capacity limiting, and battery charger load management. Load shedding can be achieved by lighting reduction, demand defrost and defrost termination, infiltration reduction, and shutting down miscellaneous equipment. Estimation of the costs and benefits of demand response participation yields simple payback periods of 2-4 years. To improve demand response performance, it’s suggested to install air curtains and another form of infiltration barrier, such as a rollup door, for the passageways. Further modifications to increase efficiency of the refrigeration unit are also analyzed. A larger condenser can maintain the minimum saturated condensing temperature (SCT) for more hours of the day. Lowering the SCT reduces the compressor lift, which results in an overall increase in refrigeration system capacity and energy efficiency. Another way of saving energy in refrigerated warehouses is eliminating the use of under-floor resistance heaters. A more energy efficient alternative to resistance heaters is to utilize the heat that is being rejected from the condenser through a heat exchanger. These energy efficiency measures improve efficiency either by reducing the required electric energy input for the refrigeration system, by helping to curtail the refrigeration load on the system, or by reducing both the load and required energy input.

  16. Demand modelling for central heating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heller, A.

    2000-07-01

    Most researchers in the field of heat demand estimation have focussed on explaning the load for a given plant based on rather few measurements. This approach is simply the only one adaptable with the very limited data material and limited computer power. This way of dealing with the subject is here called the top-down approach, due to the fact that one tries to explain the load from the overall data. The results of such efforts are discussed in the report, leading to inspiration for own work. Also the significance of the findings to the causes for given heat loads are discussed and summarised. Contrary to the top-down approach applied in literature, a here-called bottom-up approach is applied in this work, describing the causes of a given partial load in detail and combining them to explain the total load for the system. Three partial load 'components' are discussed: 1) Space heating. 2) Hot-Water Consumption. 3) Heat losses in pipe networks. The report is aimed at giving an introduction to these subjects, but at the same time at collecting the previous work done by the author. Space heating is shortly discussed and loads are generated by an advanced simulation model. A hot water consumption model is presented and heat loads, generated by this model, utilised in the overall work. Heat loads due to heat losses in district heating a given a high priority in the current work. Hence a detailed presentation and overview of the subject is given to solar heating experts normally not dealing with district heating. Based on the 'partial' loads generated by the above-mentioned method, an overall load model is built in the computer simulation environment TRNSYS. The final tool is then employed for the generation of time series for heat demand, representing a district heating area. The results are compared to alternative methods for the generation of heat demand profiles. Results form this comparison will be presented. Computerised modelling of systems

  17. Demand elasticity increase for reducing social welfare losses due to transfer capacity restriction: A test case on Italian cross-border imports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruno, Sergio; De Benedictis, Michele; La Scala, Massimo; Wangensteen, Ivar

    2006-01-01

    The paper is aimed at showing how demand-side policies for increasing inner demand elasticity could help in reducing market inefficiencies generated by transfer limits on interconnections, with a special regard to energy imports dependent countries. In order to develop the studies in a realistic environment, a model for the Italian electricity market has been developed. Test results show effects of variations in demand elasticity on the national social surplus and congestion costs. It will be shown how an increase of demand elasticity can counterbalance the need of additional transfer capacity in reducing cross-border congestions. (author)

  18. Demand for power in Calcutta Electricity Supply Corporation area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, N

    1980-07-01

    Since the early 1970's there has been a continuous crisis of power supply to the Calcutta industrial region. Historical records show that only the peak demand has grown and has a potential for growth, which, with an unchanging base demand, results in a low load factor and consequently inefficient power system operation. Attempts to shift industrial loads by operating industrial plants during non-peak hours are described. Adverse economic conditions eliminated the need for extra working shifts. It is concluded that the power system supplying the Calcutta region has an insufficient peak load generating capacity and an uneconomic load curve and that stricter hourly schedules for power use by industries should be adhered to in order to minimize these problems. (LCL)

  19. Analysis of reactor strategies to meet world nuclear energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ligon, D.M.; Brogli, R.H.

    1979-07-01

    A number of reactor deployment strategies for long-term nuclear system development are analyzed from a global perspective in terms of resource utilization and economic benefits. Two time frames are chosen: 1975 - 2025 and 1975 - 2050. Uranium demand for various strategies is compared with uranium supply assuming different production capabilities and resource base. The analysis shows that a given reactor deployment strategy could strongly influence the extent of uranium exploration and production. Power systems cost comparisons are made to identify clearly competitive or non-competitive reactors. The sensitivity of power cost to different uranium price projections and nuclear demands is also examined. The results indicate that breeders are necessary to support a long-term nuclear power system. Advanced converter-breeder symbiotic systems, particularly those operating on the Th/U-233 cycle, have clear advantages in terms of resources and economics

  20. Selection of spatial reference frames depends on task's demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greeshma Sharma

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial reference frames (SRF are the means of representing spatial relations or locations either in an egocentric coordinate system (centred on navigator or in an allocentric coordinate system (Centred on object. It is necessary to understand when and how spatial representation switches between allocentric and egocentric reference frames in context to spatial tasks. The objective of this study was to explore if the elementary spatial representation does exist, whether it would remain consistent or change under the influence of a task's demand. Also, we explored how the SRF would assist if the environment is enriched with landmarks, having multiple routes for wayfinding. The results showed that the switching of SRF depends not only on the default representation but also on a task's demand. They also demonstrated that participants who were using allocentric representation performed better in the presence of landmarks.

  1. Demand grows in N. America as gas supply sources shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1996-01-01

    Growing demand for gas as a power-generation fuel is combining with changing patterns of gas transportation to present North American producers and pipelines with a series of new challenges. Results of a recent Enron study show how natural gas supplies available to US markets continue to shift their center of gravity toward Canadian and western sources. These changes--demand growth paced by electricity generation and supply source relocation--plus extraordinary gas basin price differentials this winter, point to (a) the opportunities for and risks of adding pipeline capacity in the US and Canada, on the one hand, and (b) tough decisions that may need to be made by Gulf of Mexico and Midcontinent area producers, on the other, to compete in an environment of changing economics and infrastructure

  2. Optimization of Occupancy Based Demand Controlled Ventilation in Residences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Dorthe Kragsig; Walker, Iain; Sherman, Max

    2011-01-01

    Although it has been used for many years in commercial buildings, the application of demand controlled ventilation in residences is limited. In this study we used occupant exposure to pollutants integrated over time (referred to as "dose") as the metric to evaluate the effectiveness and air quality...... implications of demand controlled ventilation in residences. We looked at air quality for two situations. The first is that typically used in ventilation standards: the exposure over a long term. The second is to look at peak exposures that are associated with time variations in ventilation rates and pollutant...... when occupied. We used analytical solutions to the continuity equation to determine the ventilation effectiveness and the long-term chronic dose and peak acute exposure for a representative range of occupancy periods, pollutant generation rates and airflow rates. The results of the study showed that we...

  3. Single-Family Houses That Meet The Future Energy Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

    2002-01-01

    ). Before any further tightening of the regulations are introduced, however, it is necessary to illustrate the consequences of such actions with regard to finance, building technology, indoor climate and comfort. Therefore a series of investigations and experimental projects are being launched, in order...... to examine these consequences thoroughly. The department is presently contributing to this end by participating in quite a few investigative projects, where single-family houses are designed to meet the proposed future energy demands. This paper describes the results obtained from one such project where...... the department, in co-operation with a major building entrepreneur, has developed a single-family house that shows that there are no evident problems in meeting the future energy demands....

  4. Air pollution impacts from demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, D.C.; Sandii Win, M.; Hall, J.V.

    1995-01-01

    Air-polluting emission rates and energy-efficiency ratings vary widely among power plants, depending on location, age and whether the power plant is repowered. Traditional regulations require installation of specified emission control equipment that varies among power plants. These regulations do not specify that utilities first dispatch the cleanest power plants as demand varies from peak to off-peak periods. This empirical analysis shows, for 2 years out of 20, that demand-side management (DSM) programs increase air pollution. One reason for this result is that regulations require installation of specific emission-control technology but do not provide the incentive to take actual emissions or their air quality impacts into account when operating the system. For certain types of air pollutants and in some regions, regulatory programs now include markets for tradable emission credits. Such programs may alter this incentive. (author)

  5. [Cigarette taxes and demand in Colombia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, Norman; Llorente, Blanca; Deaza, Javier

    2016-10-01

    Estimate price and income elasticities of aggregate demand for cigarettes in Colombia, by controlling for structural market changes since the late 1990s, to identify policy opportunities for taxes that could improve public health and increase tax revenues. Measurement of aggregate demand for cigarettes using gross income reported on value-added tax returns submitted to Colombia's National Tax and Customs Office (DIAN is the acronym in Spanish) by the tobacco product manufacturing industry, subtracting exports. A quarterly time series was obtained for the period 1994-2014. The econometric estimation using two-stage least squares controls for price endogeneity and uses a set of dummy variables to control for structural changes in the market and in its regulation. Demand is, from a statistical standpoint, sensitive to price and to income. Price elasticity of demand is -0.78 and income elasticity is 0.61. Inelastic demand implies that it is possible, through cigarette excise taxes, to meet public health targets and increase revenues simultaneously. The results also suggest that the considerable increase in household income in Colombia in the first decade of the 21st century increased purchasing power, which, lacking an accompanying tax increase, promoted cigarette consumption, with negative effects on public health, and wasted an opportunity to increase tax revenues.

  6. Demand-controlling marketing of electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raffee, H; Fritz, W

    1980-01-01

    In situations like the shortage of energy resources the particular autonomy of the users concerning energy demand raises more and more aggravating problems for the electric utilities (EU) and, last not least, for society (i.e. the peak-load problem, threatening bottlenecks in the supply situation). Thus the requirement for a demand-controlling marketing strategy of the EU with the help of which the individual demand should be influenced in the following manner is legitimate. The article discusses the targets, strategies, and instruments of marketing performed by the EU under the aspect of their efficiency concerning demand control. The discussion leads to e.g. the following results: that a marketing strategy for the sensible, responsible, and efficent use of energy, in the long-term, serves both the interests of the users and the interests of the EU; that such a marketing programme can have the required controlling effects especially with the help of strategies like market segmentation and cooperation. The discussion makes also clear that a demand-controlling marketing strategy of the EU can hardly be realized without a considerable change within the organization of the EU on one hand and, on the other, without expanding the marketing programme toward a marketing strategy of balance.

  7. Cognitive Resource Demands of Redirected Walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruder, Gerd; Lubas, Paul; Steinicke, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Redirected walking allows users to walk through a large-scale immersive virtual environment (IVE) while physically remaining in a reasonably small workspace. Therefore, manipulations are applied to virtual camera motions so that the user's self-motion in the virtual world differs from movements in the real world. Previous work found that the human perceptual system tolerates a certain amount of inconsistency between proprioceptive, vestibular and visual sensation in IVEs, and even compensates for slight discrepancies with recalibrated motor commands. Experiments showed that users are not able to detect an inconsistency if their physical path is bent with a radius of at least 22 meters during virtual straightforward movements. If redirected walking is applied in a smaller workspace, manipulations become noticeable, but users are still able to move through a potentially infinitely large virtual world by walking. For this semi-natural form of locomotion, the question arises if such manipulations impose cognitive demands on the user, which may compete with other tasks in IVEs for finite cognitive resources. In this article we present an experiment in which we analyze the mutual influence between redirected walking and verbal as well as spatial working memory tasks using a dual-tasking method. The results show an influence of redirected walking on verbal as well as spatial working memory tasks, and we also found an effect of cognitive tasks on walking behavior. We discuss the implications and provide guidelines for using redirected walking in virtual reality laboratories.

  8. Geospatial Analysis of the Building Heat Demand and Distribution Losses in a District Heating Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Törnros

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The district heating (DH demand of various systems has been simulated in several studies. Most studies focus on the temporal aspects rather than the spatial component. In this study, the DH demand for a medium-sized DH network in a city in southern Germany is simulated and analyzed in a spatially explicit approach. Initially, buildings are geo-located and attributes obtained from various sources including building type, ground area, and number of stories are merged. Thereafter, the annual primary energy demand for heating and domestic hot water is calculated for individual buildings. Subsequently, the energy demand is aggregated on the segment level of an existing DH network and the water flow is routed through the system. The simulation results show that the distribution losses are overall the highest at the end segments (given in percentage terms. However, centrally located pipes with a low throughflow are also simulated to have high losses. The spatial analyses are not only useful when addressing the current demand. Based on a scenario taking into account the refurbishment of buildings and a decentralization of energy production, the future demand was also addressed. Due to lower demand, the distribution losses given in percentage increase under such conditions.

  9. Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and Automated Demand Response in Industrial Refrigerated Warehouses in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lekov, Alex; Thompson, Lisa; McKane, Aimee; Rockoff, Alexandra; Piette, Mary Ann

    2009-05-11

    This report summarizes the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's research to date in characterizing energy efficiency and open automated demand response opportunities for industrial refrigerated warehouses in California. The report describes refrigerated warehouses characteristics, energy use and demand, and control systems. It also discusses energy efficiency and open automated demand response opportunities and provides analysis results from three demand response studies. In addition, several energy efficiency, load management, and demand response case studies are provided for refrigerated warehouses. This study shows that refrigerated warehouses can be excellent candidates for open automated demand response and that facilities which have implemented energy efficiency measures and have centralized control systems are well-suited to shift or shed electrical loads in response to financial incentives, utility bill savings, and/or opportunities to enhance reliability of service. Control technologies installed for energy efficiency and load management purposes can often be adapted for open automated demand response (OpenADR) at little additional cost. These improved controls may prepare facilities to be more receptive to OpenADR due to both increased confidence in the opportunities for controlling energy cost/use and access to the real-time data.

  10. Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X.-J. Wang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22  ×  108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25  ×  108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

  11. Analysis and design of a Taguchi-Grey based electricity demand predictor for energy management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Albert W.L.; Chi, S.C.

    2004-01-01

    In order to use electricity efficiently, a demand control management system is one of the effective ways to reduce energy consumption and electric bills. An electricity demand control system is used as a means to monitor and manage the usage of electricity effectively. Moreover, it is a useful tool for avoiding penalties beyond the contracted demand value of electricity with the electric power company. In this project, we developed a Taguchi-Grey based predictor to forecast the demand value of electricity on line. In a Grey prediction, the parameter settings are highly relevant to the accuracy of forecasting. A Taguchi method was employed to optimize the parameter settings for the Grey based electricity demand value predictor. Our experimental results show that the optimal parameter settings of the Grey prediction are α=0.4, five point modeling and three minute sampling time of the data acquisition system. The improved Taguchi-Grey based electricity demand predictor in conjunction with the PC based electricity demand control system is a cost effective and efficient means to manage the usage of electricity

  12. Model for Assembly Line Re-Balancing Considering Additional Capacity and Outsourcing to Face Demand Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadhi, TMAA; Sumihartati, Atin

    2016-02-01

    The most critical stage in a garment industry is sewing process, because generally, it consists of a number of operations and a large number of sewing machines for each operation. Therefore, it requires a balancing method that can assign task to work station with balance workloads. Many studies on assembly line balancing assume a new assembly line, but in reality, due to demand fluctuation and demand increased a re-balancing is needed. To cope with those fluctuating demand changes, additional capacity can be carried out by investing in spare sewing machine and paying for sewing service through outsourcing. This study develops an assembly line balancing (ALB) model on existing line to cope with fluctuating demand change. Capacity redesign is decided if the fluctuation demand exceeds the available capacity through a combination of making investment on new machines and outsourcing while considering for minimizing the cost of idle capacity in the future. The objective of the model is to minimize the total cost of the line assembly that consists of operating costs, machine cost, adding capacity cost, losses cost due to idle capacity and outsourcing costs. The model develop is based on an integer programming model. The model is tested for a set of data of one year demand with the existing number of sewing machines of 41 units. The result shows that additional maximum capacity up to 76 units of machine required when there is an increase of 60% of the average demand, at the equal cost parameters..

  13. China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

    2016-07-01

    As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

  14. Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

    2018-02-01

    A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

  15. Interactive associations of parental support, demands, and psychological control, over adolescents' beliefs about the legitimacy of parental authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellado, Carlos; Cumsille, Patricio; Martínez, M Loreto

    2018-04-01

    The present study examined the relationship between parental support, demand, psychological control and adolescents' beliefs about the legitimacy of parental authority for personal and multifaceted issues in a sample of 1342 Chilean adolescents (M = 16.38, SD = 1.24, age range 14-20). Results from multiple regression analyses separated by age indicated that demand was positively associated with adolescents' beliefs about the legitimacy of parental authority for personal and multifaceted issues and that psychological control was negatively associated with adolescents' legitimacy beliefs concerning personal issues. Furthermore, parental support moderated the relationship between parental demand and adolescents' beliefs about parental legitimacy for personal and multifaceted issues: those who display high levels of demand showed stronger beliefs about parental legitimacy at high level of support. These results support the interactive effect of parental support and demand on adolescent development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. An economic approach to abortion demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, D S

    1992-01-01

    "This paper uses econometric multiple regression techniques in order to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting the demand for abortion for the year 1985. A cross-section of the 50 [U.S.] states and Washington D.C. is examined and a household choice theoretical framework is utilized. The results suggest that average price of abortion, disposable personal per capita income, percentage of single women, whether abortions are state funded, unemployment rate, divorce rate, and if the state is located in the far West, are statistically significant factors in the determination of the demand for abortion." excerpt

  17. Teacher Supply and Demand: Surprises from Primary Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Wayne

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available An investigation of primary research studies on public school teacher supply and demand revealed four surprises. Projections show that enrollments are leveling off. Relatedly, annual hiring increases should be only about two or three percent over the next few years. Results from studies of teacher attrition also yield unexpected results. Excluding retirements, only about one in 20 teachers leaves each year, and the novice teachers who quit mainly cite personal and family reasons, not job dissatisfaction. Each of these findings broadens policy makers' options for teacher supply.

  18. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  19. Uranium 2007 resources, production and demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

    2008-01-01

    Based on official information received from 40 countries, Uranium 2007 provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1st January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. It finds that with rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of underinvestment.

  20. Uranium 2005 Resources, Production and Demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris. Nuclear Energy Agency

    2006-01-01

    Published every other year, Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, or the "Red Book" as it is commonly known, is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. This 21st edition presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1st January 2005 and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2025 are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. This edition focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major c...

  1. Uranium 2014 resources, production and demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

    2014-01-01

    Published every other year, Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, or the "Red Book" as it is commonly known, is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. It presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Long-term projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. This edition focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major changes in the industry.

  2. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  3. Coping with unexpected oil demand movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2004-01-01

    Continuous upward revisions to world oil demand projections for 2003 and 2004 are compared with the downward revisions that took place in 1998 and 1999, following the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Demand leads supply, in the current case, resulting in a time-lag in the whole supply chain, while supply led demand half a decade ago, with the OECD's commercial stocks reaching record highs. Recent months have seen a reversal of the longstanding inverse relationship between the United States of America's commercial crude oil stock levels and crude prices, and they are now moving in parallel. The fact that the US market is now adequately or even well supplied means that factors other than inventory levels are causing the present high prices. These factors are briefly outlined. OPEC is doing everything it can to maintain market stability, with prices at levels acceptable to producers and consumers. The agreement reached in Beirut on 3 June is the latest example of this. (Author)

  4. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  5. Supply-demand controls the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

  6. The impact of predicted demand on energy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.

    2018-05-01

    Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.

  7. Supplier-induced demand as strategic framing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Jaegher, K.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a model of supplier-induced demand as strategic framing where the patient has reference-dependent references, and the physician can persuade the patient to buy a treatment by affecting the patient’s reference point. In the main result, the patient is assumed to have a constant

  8. Design of hardware accelerators for demanding applications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jozwiak, L.; Jan, Y.

    2010-01-01

    This paper focuses on mastering the architecture development of hardware accelerators. It presents the results of our analysis of the main issues that have to be addressed when designing accelerators for modern demanding applications, when using as an example the accelerator design for LDPC decoding

  9. Demand and Supply in Information Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Lizzie; Cronin, Blaise

    1988-01-01

    Describes the reduced employment opportunities for library and information science professionals in the United Kingdom as a result of financial constraints and restructuring in the public and private sectors. The need to train students in skills required by employers to meet employment demands is discussed. (40 references) (CLB)

  10. Product demand forecasts using wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization in manufacture system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qi

    2010-03-01

    Demand forecasts play a crucial role in supply chain management. The future demand for a certain product is the basis for the respective replenishment systems. Aiming at demand series with small samples, seasonal character, nonlinearity, randomicity and fuzziness, the existing support vector kernel does not approach the random curve of the sales time series in the space (quadratic continuous integral space). In this paper, we present a hybrid intelligent system combining the wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization for demand forecasting. The results of application in car sale series forecasting show that the forecasting approach based on the hybrid PSOWv-SVM model is effective and feasible, the comparison between the method proposed in this paper and other ones is also given, which proves that this method is, for the discussed example, better than hybrid PSOv-SVM and other traditional methods.

  11. Projection of regional demand for labour force under the terms of industry modernization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Aleksandrovich Bayev

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The article represents the results of research devoted to the problem of demand for labour force projection. The two main priorities of Russian economic development — modernization and innovation — are declared as the factors influencing labour market in a rather intrinsic and specific way. The research of dependence between GDP growth rate per occupied in the most developed countries is conducted and shows the positive influence the innovation process imposes on the demand for labour force. The particular problem is proved to be semi-structured. The selforganisation approach to this problem is proposed and helps to detect that the main shaping process of labour market dynamics is industry modernization. The trend of modernization influence on demand for labour force is revealed and taken under consideration while developing the mathematical model, enabling to predict the demand for labour force with not more than 2% mean absolute percentage error.

  12. Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

  13. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  14. Energy demand: Facts and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chateau, B; Lapillonne, B

    1982-01-01

    The relationship between economic development and energy demand is investigated in this book. It gives a detailed analysis of the energy demand dynamics in industrialized countries and compares the past evolution of the driving factors behind energy demand by sector and by end-uses for the main OECD countries: residential sector (space heating, water heating, cooking...), tertiary sector, passenger and goods transport by mode, and industry (with particular emphasis on the steel and cement industry). This analysis leads to a more precise understanding of the long-term trends of energy demand; highlighting the influence on these trends of energy prices, especially after the oil price shocks, and of the type of economic development pattern.

  15. Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Application of Job Demands-Resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrianna Potocka

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R model in the explanation of these phenomena. Materials and Methods: The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. Results: The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p < 0.05. The analysis of variance (ANOVA indicated that job resources and job demands [F(1.474 = 4.004; F(1.474 = 4.166; p < 0.05] were statistically significant sources of variation in job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474 = 2.748; p < 0.05], as well as between job demands and personal resources [F(3.474 = 3.021; p < 0.05] had a significant impact on job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1 in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001 or low (p = 0.0157; 2 when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001. Conclusion: The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees. Med Pr 2013;64(2:217–225

  17. Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

    2007-05-01

    The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

  18. Balancing supply and demand resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, J.; Saleeby, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    This article deals with using demand-side management (DSM) resources as an effective means of balancing supply and demand as a part of least-cost planning. The authors present a more sophisticated application of the load forecast adjustment method that reduces the number of DSM programs that need to be evaluated and provides blocks large enough to eliminate resolution problems in production costing models

  19. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. PMID:29533657

  20. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Pauliuk, Stefan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; van der Voet, Ester; Tukker, Arnold

    2018-04-17

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.

  1. Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

    2016-01-01

    Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

  2. Radiological consequences of floods in december 2003 in small Camargue at the place known as the Claire Farine. Results of the assessment realised at the demand of the C.L.I. of the Gard; Consequences radiologiques des inondations de decembre 2003 en petite Camargue au lieu dit Claire Farine. Resultats de l'expertise realisee a la demande de la CLI du Gard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyrolle, F.; Duffa, C.; Leprieur, F.; Rolland, B.; Antonelli, C.; Marquet, J.; Saleun, G.; Renaud, Ph

    2004-05-15

    The levels of activities measured in the market gardening are not significantly different from these ones measured in the similar samples that did not received the floods in december 2003. The results of chemical analysis do not show contamination of soils and market gardening. In conclusion, the results of assessment show that the floods of december 2003 in small Camargue at the place called 'Claire Farine) had no significant radiological and chemical consequences. (N.C.)

  3. Evaluation of Demand Functions for foodstuffs in Russian Economy in 1999–2004

    OpenAIRE

    Bondarev, Anton

    2008-01-01

    This research deals with evaluation of customer demand of Russian household on the basis of income and expenditure data. The publication provides comparative review of customer demand theoretical models, and also provides justification for economic models from the customer demand point of view. Obtained results according to elasticity of demand can be used in medium term forecasts of customer demand. The final outcome of the paper is calculation between and within demand component based on th...

  4. The Integron: Adaptation On Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, José Antonio; Loot, Céline; Nivina, Aleksandra; Mazel, Didier

    2015-04-01

    The integron is a powerful system which, by capturing, stockpiling, and rearranging new functions carried by gene encoding cassettes, confers upon bacteria a rapid adaptation capability in changing environments. Chromosomally located integrons (CI) have been identified in a large number of environmental Gram-negative bacteria. Integron evolutionary history suggests that these sedentary CIs acquired mobility among bacterial species through their association with transposable elements and conjugative plasmids. As a result of massive antibiotic use, these so-called mobile integrons are now widespread in clinically relevant bacteria and are considered to be the principal agent in the emergence and rise of antibiotic multiresistance in Gram-negative bacteria. Cassette rearrangements are catalyzed by the integron integrase, a site-specific tyrosine recombinase. Central to these reactions is the single-stranded DNA nature of one of the recombination partners, the attC site. This makes the integron a unique recombination system. This review describes the current knowledge on this atypical recombination mechanism, its implications in the reactions involving the different types of sites, attC and attI, and focuses on the tight regulation exerted by the host on integron activity through the control of attC site folding. Furthermore, cassette and integrase expression are also highly controlled by host regulatory networks and the bacterial stress (SOS) response. These intimate connections to the host make the integron a genetically stable and efficient system, granting the bacteria a low cost, highly adaptive evolution potential "on demand".

  5. Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

    2006-12-01

    Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are

  6. Separation of metabolic supply and demand: aerobic glycolysis as a normal physiological response to fluctuating energetic demands in the membrane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Tamir; Xu, Liping; Gillies, Robert J; Gatenby, Robert A

    2014-01-01

    Cancer cells, and a variety of normal cells, exhibit aerobic glycolysis, high rates of glucose fermentation in the presence of normal oxygen concentrations, also known as the Warburg effect. This metabolism is considered abnormal because it violates the standard model of cellular energy production that assumes glucose metabolism is predominantly governed by oxygen concentrations and, therefore, fermentative glycolysis is an emergency back-up for periods of hypoxia. Though several hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of aerobic glycolysis, its biological basis in cancer and normal cells is still not well understood. We examined changes in glucose metabolism following perturbations in membrane activity in different normal and tumor cell lines and found that inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. Computational simulations demonstrated that these findings are consistent with a new model of normal physiological cellular metabolism in which efficient mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation supplies chronic energy demand primarily for macromolecule synthesis and glycolysis is necessary to supply rapid energy demands primarily to support membrane pumps. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. The predictions were confirmed experimentally. Our results show that glycolytic metabolism serves a critical physiological function under normoxic conditions by responding to rapid energetic demand, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This supports a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Cells use efficient but slow-responding aerobic metabolism

  7. Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Zhang, Yu; Samaan, Nader A.

    2012-07-22

    Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency support following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid

  8. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić

    2012-01-01

    If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...

  9. Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

  10. Demand relationships in orange exports to Russia: a differential demand system approach focusing on Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assem Abu Hatab

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent years have witnessed closer diplomatic relations between Egypt and Russia, which have led to significant growth in the countries’ bilateral agricultural trade. As a world-leading producer and exporter of oranges, these developments represent an opportunity for Egypt to promote its orange exports to Russia. Another emerging opportunity for Egypt to increase its share in the Russian market for imported oranges has been provided by import embargos imposed by Russia in recent years on agricultural and food commodities from several countries, creating a supply gap of around 25 % in the Russian orange market. To assess the competitiveness of Egyptian oranges and explore the potential export opportunities presented by the Russian market, this paper uses a Rotterdam import allocation model to analyse demand relationships among major orange suppliers to Russia during the period 1996–2014. The results show that in comparison with other orange suppliers, Egypt enjoys a strong comparative advantage in the export of oranges to Russia. The econometric results suggest that both Morocco and Egypt would benefit the most if Russia were to allocate a larger budget to the import of oranges. The expenditure elasticity estimates indicate that an increase in Russia’s demand for imported oranges would lead to increases in the quantity of Egypt’s orange exports, as well as in its share of the Russian orange market. Furthermore, cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that Egyptian oranges are substitutes for Turkish and South African oranges, implying that Russia has a tendency to switch to these two suppliers when Egyptian oranges become relatively expensive. In light of these results, the adoption of strategies to produce oranges sustainably and cost-effectively, upgrade the orange value chain, acquire processing technologies and enhance the technical and organisational capacity of farmers and exporters could be useful means for promoting

  11. The impact of demand side management strategies in the penetration of renewable electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pina, André; Silva, Carlos; Ferrão, Paulo

    2012-01-01

    High fuel costs, increasing energy security and concerns with reducing emissions have pushed governments to invest in the use of renewable energies for electricity generation. However, the intermittence of most renewable resources when renewable energy provides a significant share of the energy mix can create problems to electricity grids, which can be minimized by energy storage systems that are usually not available or expensive. An alternative solution consists on the use of demand side management strategies, which can have the double effect of reducing electricity consumption and allowing greater efficiency and flexibility in the grid management, namely by enabling a better match between supply and demand. This work analyzes the impact of demand side management strategies in the evolution of the electricity mix of Flores Island in the Azores archipelago which is characterized by high shares of renewable energy and therefore the introduction of more renewable energy sources makes it an interesting case study for testing innovative solutions. The electricity generation system is modeled in TIMES, a software which optimizes the investment and operation of wind and hydro plants until 2020 based on scenarios for demand growth, deployment of demand response technologies in the domestic sector and promotion of behavioral changes to eliminate standby power. The results show that demand side management strategies can lead to a significant delay in the investment on new generation capacity from renewable resources and improve the operation of the existing installed capacity. -- Highlights: ► Energy efficiency can help reduce the need for investment in more renewable energy. ► Dynamic demand helps increase the use of renewable energy in low demand periods. ► Around 40% of total consumption by domestic appliances is used as dynamic demand. ► The load of domestic appliances is mainly shifted to the 5:00 to 9:00 period.

  12. Risk Aversion in Game Shows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2008-01-01

    We review the use of behavior from television game shows to infer risk attitudes. These shows provide evidence when contestants are making decisions over very large stakes, and in a replicated, structured way. Inferences are generally confounded by the subjective assessment of skill in some games......, and the dynamic nature of the task in most games. We consider the game shows Card Sharks, Jeopardy!, Lingo, and finally Deal Or No Deal. We provide a detailed case study of the analyses of Deal Or No Deal, since it is suitable for inference about risk attitudes and has attracted considerable attention....

  13. Measuring performance at trade shows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kåre

    2004-01-01

    Trade shows is an increasingly important marketing activity to many companies, but current measures of trade show performance do not adequately capture dimensions important to exhibitors. Based on the marketing literature's outcome and behavior-based control system taxonomy, a model is built...... that captures a outcome-based sales dimension and four behavior-based dimensions (i.e. information-gathering, relationship building, image building, and motivation activities). A 16-item instrument is developed for assessing exhibitors perceptions of their trade show performance. The paper presents evidence...

  14. PULP DEMAND IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmilson Santos Cruz

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at analyzing the international pulp market, taking into account themain exporting countries and importing regions, with the objective of estimating, for each market, theown-price and cross-price elasticity in relation to the demand of the pulp, differentiated for country oforigin. The model considers that imports are differentiated by origin; therefore they are not perfect substitutes. The demand from Europe, North America and the Rest of the World for the pulp from theUnited States,Canada, Sweden, Finland, Portugal and Brazil was inelastic. The Asian demand for thissome pulp was elastic. Europe and the Rest of the World showed negative cross-price elasticity, i. e.,and the imported pulp from other countries are complementary products. North America and Asiashowed positive crow-price elasticity, i. e., they consider the pulp produced in other countries assubstitute products. The net effect of the variation on the price of pulp in a country h, over the amountof pulp that goes to the region i depends on the matching of values related to the elasticity ofsubstitution and the price elasticity of the total demand.

  15. Optimal transport on supply-demand networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Han; Wang, Bing-Hong; Zhao, Li-Chao; Zhou, Changsong; Zhou, Tao

    2010-06-01

    In the literature, transport networks are usually treated as homogeneous networks, that is, every node has the same function, simultaneously providing and requiring resources. However, some real networks, such as power grids and supply chain networks, show a far different scenario in which nodes are classified into two categories: supply nodes provide some kinds of services, while demand nodes require them. In this paper, we propose a general transport model for these supply-demand networks, associated with a criterion to quantify their transport capacities. In a supply-demand network with heterogeneous degree distribution, its transport capacity strongly depends on the locations of supply nodes. We therefore design a simulated annealing algorithm to find the near optimal configuration of supply nodes, which remarkably enhances the transport capacity compared with a random configuration and outperforms the degree target algorithm, the betweenness target algorithm, and the greedy method. This work provides a start point for systematically analyzing and optimizing transport dynamics on supply-demand networks.

  16. Aviation Frontiers: On-Demand Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Mark D.

    2010-01-01

    Throughout the 20th Century, NASA has defined the forefront of aeronautical technology, and the aviation industry owes much of its prosperity to this knowledge and technology. In recent decades, centralized aeronautics has become a mature discipline, which raises questions concerning the future aviation innovation frontiers. Three transformational aviation capabilities, bounded together by the development of a Free Flight airspace management system, have the potential to transform 21st Century society as profoundly as civil aviation transformed the 20th Century. These mobility breakthroughs will re-establish environmental sustainable centralized aviation, while opening up latent markets for civil distributed sensing and on-demand rural and regional transportation. Of these three transformations, on-demand aviation has the potential to have the largest market and productivity improvement to society. The information system revolution over the past 20 years shows that vehicles lead, and the interconnecting infrastructure to make them more effective follows; that is, unless on-demand aircraft are pioneered, a distributed Air Traffic Control system will likely never be established. There is no single technology long-pole that will enable on-demand vehicle solutions. However, fully digital aircraft that include electric propulsion has the potential to be a multi-disciplinary initiator of solid state technologies that can provide order of magnitude improvements in the ease of use, safety/reliability, community and environmental friendliness, and affordability.

  17. Supplementing energy demand of rural households in Bangladesh through appropriate biogas technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashekuzzaman, S.M.; Badruzzaman, A.B.M.; Rafiqul Hoque, A.T.M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper has sought to show the potential of energy recovery from rurally available agro and household organic wastes and thus, the possible impact on supplementing energy demand, reducing deforestation, and replacing fossil fuel as well as avoided greenhouse gases. Results show that co......-digestion of a wide range of manure, crop residues and household wastes with cow manure was successful to produce increased gas yield than what would be if cow dung is digested separately and the energy value from this can supplement 57–79% of the rural energy demand, depending on the methane yield from organic waste...

  18. Why Should We Demand Equality of Educational Opportunity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    This paper reveals how equal educational opportunities, equal job opportunities and equality of opportunity for welfare are related to each other, and how they are related to other demands for justice. There are several important objections to the emphasis on equal educational opportunities. Nevertheless, this paper shows that demanding equal…

  19. The demand for military spending in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Qarn, A. S.; Dunne, J. P.; Abdelfattah, Y.; Zaher, S.

    2013-01-01

    Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last forty years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategi...

  20. Supply and demand law under limited information

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2005-01-01

    We present a model for the supply-demand law with quality and limited information capability. We postulate that imperfect information permeates in almost all economic transactions to varying degrees. Through a simple model we outline a research agenda that re-examines many standard issues in economics. Our analysis shows that whereas imperfect information can be improved, it leads to new uncertainties so that the perfect information limit can never be reached. As a corollary neoclassical perf...

  1. Analysis of Facebook content demand patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Kihl, Maria; Larsson, Robin; Unnervik, Niclas; Haberkamm, Jolina; Arvidsson, Åke; Aurelius, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Data volumes in communication networks increase rapidly. Further, usage of social network applications is very wide spread among users, and among these applications, Facebook is the most popular. In this paper, we analyse user demands patterns and content popularity of Facebook generated traffic. The data comes from residential users in two metropolitan access networks in Sweden, and we analyse more than 17 million images downloaded by almost 16,000 Facebook users. We show that the distributi...

  2. Identifying rural-urban differences in the predictors of emergency ambulance service demand and misuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ho Ting; Lin, Teng-Kang; Lin, Jen-Jia

    2018-06-13

    This study aims to assess rural-urban differences in the predictors of emergency ambulance service (EAS) demand and misuse in New Taipei City. Identifying the predictors of EAS demand will help the EAS service managing authority in formulating focused policies to maintain service quality. Over 160,000 electronic EAS usage records were used with a negative binomial regression model to assess rural-urban differences in the predictors of EAS demand and misuse. The factors of 1) ln-transformed population density, 2) percentage of residents who completed up to junior high school education, 3) accessibility of hospitals without an emergency room, and 4) accessibility of EAS were found to be predictors of EAS demand in rural areas, whereas only the factor of percentage of people aged above 65 was found to predict EAS demand in urban areas. For EAS misuse, only the factor of percentage of low-income households was found to be a predictor in rural areas, whereas no predictor was found in the urban areas. Results showed that the factors predicting EAS demand and misuse in rural areas were more complicated compared to urban areas and, therefore, formulating EAS policies for rural areas based on the results of urban studies may not be appropriate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Competence-based demands made of senior physicians: an empirical study to evaluate leadership competencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehr, Bosco; Ostermann, Herwig; Schubert, Harald

    2011-01-01

    As a result of more economising in German hospitals, changes evolve in organising the deployment of senior medical staff. New demands are made of senior hospital management. Leadership competencies in the training and development of physicians are of prime importance to the successful perception of managerial responsibilities. The present study investigates the actual and targeted demands of leadership made of senior medical staff in terms of how these demands are perceived. To this end, the demands of leadership were surveyed using a competence-based questionnaire and investigated with a view to potentials in professional development by way of example of the senior management of psychiatric hospitals in Germany. In all, the results show high ratings in personal performance, the greatest significance being attributed to value-oriented competence in the actual assessment of demands on leadership. Besides gender-specific differences in the actual assessments of single fields of competence, the greatest differences between the targeted and the actual demands are, in all, shown to be in the competencies of self-management and communication. Competence-based core areas in leadership can be demonstrated for the professional development of physicians and an adaptive mode of procedure deduced. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  4. Pattern of Demand For Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Berlian

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the activity of the modern economy, the availability of money as a means of transaction is very important, because with the money as a means to pay consumers can easily to get the basic material needs are required, the manufacturer can provide the raw materials of labor for production, and distributors can obtain a variety of merchandise to be delivered at the end consumer. The pattern of use of money is influenced by the attitude of the public in the transaction. Researchers assume, that there are differences among communities, either by group differences in income, educational differences, ethnic differences, differences in profession, and perhaps even religious differences embraced. So as to provide information to the monetary authorities, to enrich the theory of demand for money based economic agents in Indonesia, and for the application of the theory of demand for money, the researchers felt the need to study patterns of use of money. Qualitative research, in addition to knowing whether the variables that affect the demand for money as the above theory is still relevant for economic actors in Indonesia at this time, or even are new variables, as well as the motive of money demand. Keywords: Demand for money, Keynes Theory, qualitative method

  5. Driving monotonous routes in a train simulator: the effect of task demand on driving performance and subjective experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Naomi; Williamson, Ann

    2012-01-01

    Although monotony is widely recognised as being detrimental to performance, its occurrence and effects are not yet well understood. This is despite the fact that task-related characteristics, such as monotony and low task demand, have been shown to contribute to performance decrements over time. Participants completed one of two simulated train-driving scenarios. Both were highly monotonous and differed only in terms of the level of cognitive demand required (i.e. low demand or high demand). These results highlight the seriously detrimental effects of the combination of monotony and low task demands and clearly show that even a relatively minor increase in cognitive demand can mitigate adverse monotony-related effects on performance for extended periods of time. Monotony is an inherent characteristic of transport industries, including rail, aviation and road transport, which can have adverse impact on safety, reliability and efficiency. This study highlights possible strategies for mitigating these adverse effects. Practitioner Summary: This study provides evidence for the importance of cognitive demand in mitigating monotony-related effects on performance. The results have clear implications for the rapid onset of performance deterioration in low demand monotonous tasks and demonstrate that these detrimental performance effects can be overcome with simple solutions, such as making the task more cognitively engaging.

  6. Assessment of acute physiological demand for soccer

    OpenAIRE

    Coelho, Daniel Barbosa; Pimenta, Eduardo Mendonça; Veneroso, Christiano Eduardo; Morandi, Rodrigo Figueiredo; Pacheco, Diogo Antônio Soares; Pereira, Emerson Rodrigues; Coelho, Leonardo Gomes Martins; Silami-Garcia, Emerson

    2013-01-01

    Soccer is a sport practiced worldwide, on all continents. It is considered an intermittent activity of high intensity and long duration, in which movements that require great strength and speed, such as jumps and sprints, result in high levels of muscle microtrauma, hampering athletes' training and recovery. The present study aimed to evaluate the magnitude of changes in different markers of physiological demand resulting from a soccer match in healthy individuals. Ten healthy male physical e...

  7. Disaggregated export demand of Malaysia: evidence from the electronics industry

    OpenAIRE

    Koi Nyen Wong

    2008-01-01

    This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's top five electronics exports by SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups from 1990 to 2001. Cointegration results indicate a unique long-run relationship between export demand for electronic products and relative prices and foreign income. Both the estimated long-run income and price elasticities of export demand are greater than 1, conforming to a pattern found in most fast-growing economies and i...

  8. DEMAND FOR MALAYSIA'S EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Koi Nyen Wong

    2006-01-01

    This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's top five electronics exports by SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups from 1990 to 2001. Cointegration results indicate a unique long-run relationship between export demand for electronic products and relative prices and foreign income. Both the estimated long-run income and price elasticities of export demand are greater than 1, conforming to a pattern found in most fast-growing economies and i...

  9. Demand-Withdraw Patterns in Marital Conflict in the Home

    OpenAIRE

    Papp, Lauren M.; Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Cummings, E. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The present study extended laboratory-based findings of demand-withdraw communication into marital conflict in the home and further explored its linkages with spousal depression. U.S. couples (N = 116) provided diary reports of marital conflict and rated depressive symptoms. Hierarchical linear modeling results indicated that husband demand-wife withdraw and wife demand-husband withdraw occurred in the home at equal frequency, and both were more likely to occur when discussing topics that con...

  10. Analysis Of Factors Affecting Demand Red Chili Pepper Capsicum Annum L In Solok And Effort Fulfillment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulfitriyana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Research on the analysis of the factors that influence the demand for red chilli Capsicum annuum L in Solok and compliance efforts implemented in March s.d April 2016. The purpose of this study consisted of 1 analyze the factors affecting the demand for red chili in Solok 2 analyze the elasticity of demand for red chili in Solok 3 know the effort that can be done to meet the demand of red chilli in Solok. To achieve the objectives of the first and second use secondary data for 15 fifteen years and to achieve the objectives the third used primary data. The method used is descriptive analytical method a method that is used to describe phenomena that exist which takes place in the present or past. The variables were observed in this study is the X1 price of red chilli X2 the price of green chili X3 onion prices X4 population X5 income and Y the number of requests red chili which is then analyzed by multiple linear regression elasticity of demand and SWOT. The results of that research addressing the factors that influence the demand for red chili in Solok is the price of red chilli itself the price of green chili as a substitute goods the number of population and income while onion prices affect the amount of red chili demand in Solok. But simultaneously variable X1 red chili prices X2 the price of green chili X3 onion prices X4 population and X5 income strongly influence demand red chili in Solok where the F test results show that F count F table 212.262 3600 with a significance level 0.000 0.010 and the most influential variable is the variable X4 population with the greatest value of beta Coefficients is 1100. Based on analysis of the elasticity of demand is known that red chili pepper is a normal good is inelastic to price elasticity coefficient value amp603p of -0.120. Green chili is substituting goods and shallots are complements of red chili with cross elasticity coefficient amp603px1 and amp603px2 respectively by 0293 and -0.635. While the

  11. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  12. 1993 US petroleum engineering manpower supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wattenbarger, R.A.; Morriss, S.

    1994-01-01

    Each year, the SPE Manpower Committee reports on the results of petroleum engineering manpower supply and demand surveys to inform SPE members about hiring patterns of engineers in the petroleum industry and the supply of graduates from US petroleum engineering schools. The SPE Manpower Committee's US surveys show that large companies will decrease their hiring while small companies and service companies will increase their hiring of engineers. During 1992--93, only about 65% of graduating petroleum engineering students were known to have jobs. Another finding is that, overall, new US SPE membership is decreasing while non-US membership is increasing

  13. Optimisation of key performance measures in air cargo demand management

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander May; Adrian Anslow; Udechukwu Ojiako; Yue Wu; Alasdair Marshall; Maxwell Chipulu

    2014-01-01

    This article sought to facilitate the optimisation of key performance measures utilised for demand management in air cargo operations. The focus was on the Revenue Management team at Virgin Atlantic Cargo and a fuzzy group decision-making method was used. Utilising intelligent fuzzy multi-criteria methods, the authors generated a ranking order of ten key outcome-based performance indicators for Virgin Atlantic air cargo Revenue Management. The result of this industry-driven study showed that ...

  14. Tokyo Motor Show 2003; Tokyo Motor Show 2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joly, E.

    2004-01-01

    The text which follows present the different techniques exposed during the 37. Tokyo Motor Show. The report points out the great tendencies of developments of the Japanese automobile industry. The hybrid electric-powered vehicles or those equipped with fuel cells have been highlighted by the Japanese manufacturers which allow considerable budgets in the research of less polluting vehicles. The exposed models, although being all different according to the manufacturer, use always a hybrid system: fuel cell/battery. The manufacturers have stressed too on the intelligent systems for navigation and safety as well as on the design and comfort. (O.M.)

  15. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  16. North American supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pocino, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The projected supply and demand for natural gas in five major regions of North America for the year 2000 was presented. In most regions, supply is expected to be greater than demand. A summary of how California dealt with an increase in natural gas demand in 1990 was presented. The California strategy included a readjustment of pipeline capacity, storage capacity and transportation. Whereas in the 1980s, when capacity was inadequate, the focus was on competition with alternate fuels, maximized capacity use, primary concern about reliability and only secondary concern about price, in the the 1990s, with excess capacity, the emphasis is on 'gas on gas' competition, efforts to satisfy the customer, primary concern about price, and only marginal concern about reliability. tabs., figs

  17. Supplies should match growing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmusen, H.J.

    1997-01-01

    The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

  18. Pay for load demand - electricity pricing with load demand component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyrko, Jurek; Sernhed, Kerstin; Abaravicius, Juozas

    2003-01-01

    This publication is part of a project called Direct and Indirect Load Control in Buildings. Peak load problems have attracted considerable attention in Sweden during last three winters, caused by a significant decrease in available reserve power, which is a consequence of political decisions and liberalisation of the electricity market. A possible way to lower peak loads, avoiding electricity shortages and reducing electricity costs both for users and utilities, is to make customers experience the price difference during peak load periods and, in this way, become more aware of their energy consumption pattern and load demand. As of January 1st 2001, one of the Swedish energy utilities - Sollentuna Energi - operating in the Stockholm area, introduced a new electricity tariff with differentiated grid fees based on a mean value of the peak load every month. This tariff was introduced for all residential customers in the service area. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which a Load Demand Component, included in electricity pricing, can influence energy use and load demand in residential buildings. What are the benefits and disadvantages for customers and utilities? This paper investigates the impact of the new tariff on the utility and different types of typical residential customers, making comparisons with previous tariff. Keywords Load demand, electricity pricing, tariff, residential customers, energy behaviour

  19. Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California Agricultural Irrigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Pumping water for agricultural irrigation represents a significant share of California’s annual electricity use and peak demand. It also represents a large source of potential flexibility, as farms possess a form of storage in their wetted soil. By carefully modifying their irrigation schedules, growers can participate in demand response without adverse effects on their crops. This report describes the potential for participation in demand response and automated demand response by agricultural irrigators in California, as well as barriers to widespread participation. The report first describes the magnitude, timing, location, purpose, and manner of energy use in California. Typical on-­farm controls are discussed, as well as common impediments to participation in demand response and automated demand response programs. Case studies of demand response programs in California and across the country are reviewed, and their results along with overall California demand estimates are used to estimate statewide demand response potential. Finally, recommendations are made for future research that can enhance the understanding of demand response potential in this industry.

  20. Information Literacy Skills Training: A Factor in Student Satisfaction with Access to High Demand Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrett, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    In a survey of Business and Government, Law and Information Sciences students carried out at the University of Canberra, results showed that in-curricula information literacy skills training had a greater impact on students' satisfaction with access to high demand material than the purchase of additional copies of books. This paper will discuss…

  1. Electricity demand savings from distributed solar photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glassmire, John; Komor, Paul; Lilienthal, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Due largely to recent dramatic cost reductions, photovoltaics (PVs) are poised to make a significant contribution to electricity supply. In particular, distributed applications of PV on rooftops, brownfields, and other similar applications – hold great technical potential. In order for this potential to be realized, however, PV must be “cost-effective”—that is, it must be sufficiently financially appealing to attract large amounts of investment capital. Electricity costs for most commercial and industrial end-users come in two forms: consumption (kWh) and demand (kW). Although rates vary, for a typical larger commercial or industrial user, demand charges account for about ∼40% of total electricity costs. This paper uses a case study of PV on a large university campus to reveal that even very large PV installations will often provide very small demand reductions. As a result, it will be very difficult for PV to demonstrate cost-effectiveness for large commercial customers, even if PV costs continue to drop. If policymakers would like PV to play a significant role in electricity generation – for economic development, carbon reduction, or other reasons – then rate structures will need significant adjustment, or improved distributed storage technologies will be needed. - Highlights: ► Demand charges typically account for ∼40% of total electricity costs for larger electricity users. ► Distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems provide minimal demand charge reductions. ► As a result, PVs are not a financially viable alternative to centralized electricity. ► Electricity rate structures will need changes for PV to be a major electricity source.

  2. An Analysis on change of household electricity demand pattern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, In Gang [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-01-01

    The object of this study is to analyze the behavioral pattern change of household electricity demand. Through the cross section analysis using materials from the energy total research report, the change in income elasticity of household electricity demand was studied. In this study, two methodologies were used. Firstly, it was shown that the effect of an income variable was very significant with a positive value in simultaneous equations model using exponential equations of electrical appliances holding. Cross section income effect showed a various distribution according to the season or income level. Overall, it was calculated at 0.111 when the appliances are fixed and 0.432 when even appliances are changed. Secondly, using a choice convenient correction model, it is resulted that lambda, the choice convenient correction factor, has a positive value and is statistically significant. In 1996, income elasticity of electricity demand for households with air-conditioning was 0.305 and for households without air-conditioning was 0.172. Income elasticity of households with air-conditioning is increasing as time goes by while income elasticity of households without air-conditioning is decreasing. (author). 32 refs., 35 tabs.

  3. Negative autoregulation matches production and demand in synthetic transcriptional networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Elisa; Giordano, Giulia; Forsberg, Per-Ola; Murray, Richard M

    2014-08-15

    We propose a negative feedback architecture that regulates activity of artificial genes, or "genelets", to meet their output downstream demand, achieving robustness with respect to uncertain open-loop output production rates. In particular, we consider the case where the outputs of two genelets interact to form a single assembled product. We show with analysis and experiments that negative autoregulation matches the production and demand of the outputs: the magnitude of the regulatory signal is proportional to the "error" between the circuit output concentration and its actual demand. This two-device system is experimentally implemented using in vitro transcriptional networks, where reactions are systematically designed by optimizing nucleic acid sequences with publicly available software packages. We build a predictive ordinary differential equation (ODE) model that captures the dynamics of the system and can be used to numerically assess the scalability of this architecture to larger sets of interconnected genes. Finally, with numerical simulations we contrast our negative autoregulation scheme with a cross-activation architecture, which is less scalable and results in slower response times.

  4. The demand for ambulatory mental health services from specialty providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horgan, C M

    1986-01-01

    A two-part model is used to examine the demand for ambulatory mental health services in the specialty sector. In the first equation, the probability of having a mental health visit is estimated. In the second part of the model, variations in levels of use expressed in terms of visits and expenditures are examined in turn, with each of these equations conditional on positive utilization of mental health services. In the second part of the model, users are additionally grouped into those with and without out-of-pocket payment for services. This specification accounts for special characteristics regarding the utilization of ambulatory mental health services: (1) a large part of the population does not use these services; (2) of those who use services, the distribution of use is highly skewed; and (3) a large number of users have zero out-of-pocket expenditures. Cost-sharing does indeed matter in the demand for ambulatory mental health services from specialty providers; however, the decision to use mental health services is affected by the level of cost-sharing to a lesser degree than is the decision regarding the level of use of services. The results also show that price is only one of several important factors in determining the demand for services. The lack of significance of family income and of being female is notable. Evidence is presented for the existence of bandwagon effects. The importance of Medicaid in the probability of use equations is noted. PMID:3721874

  5. Chloramine demand estimation using surrogate chemical and microbiological parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Sina; Liu, Sanly; Chow, Christopher W K; van Leeuwen, John; Cook, David; Drikas, Mary; Amal, Rose

    2017-07-01

    A model is developed to enable estimation of chloramine demand in full scale drinking water supplies based on chemical and microbiological factors that affect chloramine decay rate via nonlinear regression analysis method. The model is based on organic character (specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA)) of the water samples and a laboratory measure of the microbiological (F m ) decay of chloramine. The applicability of the model for estimation of chloramine residual (and hence chloramine demand) was tested on several waters from different water treatment plants in Australia through statistical test analysis between the experimental and predicted data. Results showed that the model was able to simulate and estimate chloramine demand at various times in real drinking water systems. To elucidate the loss of chloramine over the wide variation of water quality used in this study, the model incorporates both the fast and slow chloramine decay pathways. The significance of estimated fast and slow decay rate constants as the kinetic parameters of the model for three water sources in Australia was discussed. It was found that with the same water source, the kinetic parameters remain the same. This modelling approach has the potential to be used by water treatment operators as a decision support tool in order to manage chloramine disinfection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

  7. Oil demand asymmetry in the OECD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shealy, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Oil demand asymmetry exists, is significant, and can be captured with a simple demand equation using a Pmax term. The unstable parameters of the original symmetric equations suggest misspecification. Addition of a Pmax term to represent asymmetry yields stable parameters from 1982 through 1989 and so suggests proper specification. Asymmetry is significant because the short-run (and long-run) price elasticity is less than half as large when oil price falls as when price rises beyond the past peak. The lower elasticity applies both to price decreases and also to price increases for which price remains below the past peak. As long as the real oil price remains well below the 1981 peak, asymmetry implies that OECD oil demand should be less sensitive to oil price variations than in 1981. More specifically, the results shown suggest that today's oil demand elasticity should be less than half as large as the elasticity for a price increase in 1981. Forecasts from the asymmetric equations are significantly higher than the DOE base-case forecast. DOE's lower forecast is due to greater price asymmetry through 1995 and to higher long-run price elasticity beyond 1995. One reason for the higher long-run price elasticity might be greater assumed improvements in energy-efficiency than implied by the historical data

  8. Uranium 2007: resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    With several countries building nuclear power plants and many more considering the use of nuclear power to produce electricity in order to meet rising demand, the uranium industry has become the focus of considerable attention. In response to rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of under investment. The ''Red Book'', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on official information received from 40 countries. This 22. edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1. January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. (author)

  9. Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chelmis, Charalampos [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Aman, Saima [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-01-30

    Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

  10. Decomposing energy demand across BRIIC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adetutu, Morakinyo O.; Glass, Anthony J.; Weyman-Jones, Thomas G.

    2016-01-01

    Energy plays an important role within the production technology of fast emerging economies, such that firms' reaction to changes in energy prices provides useful information on factor productivity and factor intensity, as well as the likely outcome of energy policy initiatives, among other things. Drawing on duality theory, this paper decomposes changes in energy demand into substitution and output effects using annual sector-level production data for Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China (BRIIC) for the period 1995–2009. Unlike previous studies, this study analyzed the economic properties of the underlying production technology. Results indicate that changes in energy demand are strongly dominated by substitution effects. More importantly, an intriguing finding that emerges from our analysis is the role of economies of scale and factor accumulation, as opposed to technical progress, in giving rise to the growth performance of sampled economies. - Highlights: • The analysis examines the structure and channels of changes in energy demand across productive sectors in BRIIC countries during 1995–2009. • We evaluate substitution and output effects as well as the nature of firm productivity across these countries. • Changes in energy demand arising from changes in (relative) price of energy is strongly dominated by substitution effects. • The main drivers of economic performance and energy use over the sample period are economies of scale and factor accumulation.

  11. Uranium 2007: resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    With several countries building nuclear power plants and many more considering the use of nuclear power to produce electricity in order to meet rising demand, the uranium industry has become the focus of considerable attention. In response to rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of under investment. The ''Red Book'', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on official information received from 40 countries. This second edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of first January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. (author)

  12. The Demand for Rental Homes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skak, Morten

    2007-01-01

    For a number of years, homeownership rates have been increasing along with increasing GDP per capita in most European countries, but not in Denmark after 2000. Why have increased real incomes kept the demand for rental housing up in Denmark? The present paper takes a closer look at the Danish dev...... traits found on the Danish housing market and the technique employed for prediction are of interest to housing researchers in other countries.......For a number of years, homeownership rates have been increasing along with increasing GDP per capita in most European countries, but not in Denmark after 2000. Why have increased real incomes kept the demand for rental housing up in Denmark? The present paper takes a closer look at the Danish...... development, and gives some indications of the future demand for rental housing in Denmark. The results indicate a future stagnant rental demand kept up by an increasing share of persons of old age and young persons undergoing education, and thus a rising homeownership rate. It is believed that the structural...

  13. Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Santosh

    2017-05-01

    Using a household survey conducted in 2014, this study estimates price elasticity of demand (PED) for beer, country liquor and spirits in India. Ordinary least-square models were used to estimate the responsiveness in alcohol demand due to price change. A large number of control variables were included to adjust for potential confounding in the model. Inter-district variation in alcohol consumption is adjusted for by including district fixed effects. Alcohol prices are negatively associated with demand for alcoholic beverages. The PED ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.46 for country liquor. Low level of education was positively associated with spirits consumption. The magnitude of elasticity varied by rural-urban, education and gender. Results indicate that a policy mix of price controls and awareness campaigns would be most effective in tackling the adverse effects of harmful drinking in India. The demand for beer, country liquor and spirits is negatively associated with its own price. The elasticity estimates ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.44 for country liquor. The elasticity estimates varied by rural-urban, gender and by education levels of the drinkers. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

  14. Analyzing the impacts of final demand changes on total output using input-output approach: The case of Japanese ICT sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Ubaidillah

    2014-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of final demand changes on total output of Japanese Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sectors in future time. This study employs one of analysis tool in Input-Output (IO) analysis, demand-pull IO quantity model, in achieving the purpose. There are three final demand changes used in this study, namely (1) export, (2) import, and (3) outside households consumption changes. This study focuses on "pure change" condition, the condition that final demand changes only appear in analyzed sectors. The results show that export and outside households consumption modifications give positive impact while opposite impact could be seen in import change.

  15. Analysis of Japanese energy demand structure based on the interindustry-relations table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanai, Akira; Kashihara, Toshinori

    1990-01-01

    Matching of energy-supply system and demand system is very important in dealing with the energy problem. Especially the energy-demand system is important for determing the quantity and quality of the energy demand. The energy demand is created by activities of industry and human life. The best materials which describe these activity conditions is the interindustry-relations table. Authors rely on this table as the basic data for assuming the energy demand analysis of energy system. The defect of this table is that an industrial classification differs in publishing years. So the table is lacking in the time sequential consistency. Therefore we discuss the method to improve the defect in consistency. In addition, this report analyses the energy demand structure in Japan according to the improved method. The research is done by the following procedure, 1. The unified common sector data is made so that an industrial classification in the interindustry-relations tables become common. 2. The quantity of input energy in each section is extracted from the tables. 3. The input energy is converted into the characteristic indicator and the calorific indicator. 4. The section is united using the common sector data. 5. The result is shown in table or graph. 6. The energy demand structure is analyzed based on the tables and the graphs. This interindustry-relations table is offered by request in the form of the magnetic tape. All the data is processed by computer due to the abundant amount of data. This report shows the idea how to process the fable instead of displaying the details. In addition, the problem in the analysis of the table is pointed out as results of the analysis. This report describes the feature of 23-sections classification in analysis of the energy demand structure. This report offers a basic data to make energy scenario to the energy system analysists. (J.P.N.)

  16. Reality show: um paradoxo nietzschiano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilana Feldman

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available

    O fenômeno dos reality shows - e a subseqüente relação entre imagem e verdade - assenta-se sobre uma série de paradoxos. Tais paradoxos podem ser compreendidos à luz do pensamento do filósofo alemão Friedrich Nietzsche, que, através dos usos de formulações paradoxais, concebia a realidade como um mundo de pura aparência e a verdade como um acréscimo ficcional, como um efeito. A ficção é então tomada, na filosofia de Nietzsche, não em seu aspecto falsificante e desrealizador - como sempre pleiteou nossa tradição metafísica -, mas como condição necessária para que certa espécie de invenção possa operar como verdade. Sendo assim, a própria expressão reality show, através de sua formulação paradoxal, engendra explicitamente um mundo de pura aparência, em que a verdade, a parte reality da proposição, é da ordem do suplemento, daquilo que se acrescenta ficcionalmente - como um adjetivo - a show. O ornamento, nesse caso, passa a ocupar o lugar central, apontando para o efeito produzido: o efeito-de-verdade. Seguindo, então, o pensamento nietzschiano e sua atualização na contemporaneidade, investigaremos de que forma os televisivos “shows de realidade” operam paradoxalmente, em consonância com nossas paradoxais práticas culturais.

  17. Energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing: a two-stage model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, A.M.; Pereira, A.M.

    1992-01-01

    We use a two-stage model of factor demand to estimate the parameters determining energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing. In the first stage, a capital-labor-energy-materials framework is used to analyze the substitutability between energy as a whole and other factors of production. In the second stage, total energy demand is decomposed into oil, coal and electricity demands. The two stages are fully integrated since the energy composite used in the first stage and its price are obtained from the second stage energy sub-model. The estimates obtained indicate that energy demand in manufacturing responds significantly to price changes. In addition, estimation results suggest that there are important substitution possibilities among energy forms and between energy and other factors of production. The role of price changes in energy-demand forecasting, as well as in energy policy in general, is clearly established. (author)

  18. Demand-Withdraw Patterns in Marital Conflict in the Home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, Lauren M; Kouros, Chrystyna D; Cummings, E Mark

    2009-06-01

    The present study extended laboratory-based findings of demand-withdraw communication into marital conflict in the home and further explored its linkages with spousal depression. U.S. couples (N = 116) provided diary reports of marital conflict and rated depressive symptoms. Hierarchical linear modeling results indicated that husband demand-wife withdraw and wife demand-husband withdraw occurred in the home at equal frequency, and both were more likely to occur when discussing topics that concerned the marital relationship. For both patterns, conflict initiator was positively linked to the demander role. Accounting for marital satisfaction, both demand-withdraw patterns predicted negative emotions and tactics during marital interactions and lower levels of conflict resolution. Spousal depression was linked to increased likelihood of husband demand-wife withdraw.

  19. Does Knowledge Contribute to the Acceptance of Demand Response?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salla Annala

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available More flexible demand side would benefit the electricity markets, networks and sustainable power generation in many ways. The success of demand response programs, however, relies on consumer acceptance. This paper reviews previous studies about acceptability of different kinds of residential demand response programs. Furthermore, it discusses whether consumers who are more aware of the principles and benefits of demand response have more positive attitudes towards demand response programs. The results of the literature review and two survey studies suggest that price and security of supply are currently bigger motives to change consumption behaviour than environmental issues and that the savings expected to trigger any action (and to lead to lasting change in behaviour may be relatively high. Therefore, the framing of demand response programs goals may affect the acceptance. Additionally, consumers seem to prefer simple price structures that remain constant for a long time to more dynamic options.

  20. Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

    2017-12-01

    Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

  1. Collusion and the elasticity of demand

    OpenAIRE

    David Collie

    2004-01-01

    The analysis of collusion in infinitely repeated Cournot oligopoly games has generally assumed that demand is linear, but this note uses constant-elasticity demand functions to investigate how the elasticity of demand affects the sustainability of collusion.

  2. EIA projections of coal supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, D.E.

    1989-01-01

    Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion

  3. Maximum spectral demands in the near-fault region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yin-Nan; Whittaker, Andrew S.; Luco, Nicolas

    2008-01-01

    The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relationships for shallow crustal earthquakes in the western United States predict a rotated geometric mean of horizontal spectral demand, termed GMRotI50, and not maximum spectral demand. Differences between strike-normal, strike-parallel, geometric-mean, and maximum spectral demands in the near-fault region are investigated using 147 pairs of records selected from the NGA strong motion database. The selected records are for earthquakes with moment magnitude greater than 6.5 and for closest site-to-fault distance less than 15 km. Ratios of maximum spectral demand to NGA-predicted GMRotI50 for each pair of ground motions are presented. The ratio shows a clear dependence on period and the Somerville directivity parameters. Maximum demands can substantially exceed NGA-predicted GMRotI50 demands in the near-fault region, which has significant implications for seismic design, seismic performance assessment, and the next-generation seismic design maps. Strike-normal spectral demands are a significantly unconservative surrogate for maximum spectral demands for closest distance greater than 3 to 5 km. Scale factors that transform NGA-predicted GMRotI50 to a maximum spectral demand in the near-fault region are proposed.

  4. Hourly price elasticity pattern of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market

    OpenAIRE

    Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon

    2016-01-01

    System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is...

  5. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information, then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicted due to a number of factors influencing the process and causing random demand changes. In this case, a supply system must function according to the complete information and with a certain degree of uncertainty. In cases when demand may be defined by some of the laws of the probability theory, we are talking about stochastic demand and a stochastic supply system. Demand can be described by mathematical expectation, mathematical expectation and standard deviation, probability distribution or as a random process. However, there is usually a need for the most complex description, i.e. the complex random process because both intensity of demand and the probability distribution change during the observed intervals. The level of temporal (dynamic series is traditionally considered as a complex phenomenon consisting of four components: - basic tendency of phenomenon development - cyclical impact (long-term, 'ancient' - seasonal effects - random fluctuations. The basic tendency of phenomenon development means a long-term evolution of phenomena. A function that expresses the trajectory of changes of the basic tendency of a phenomenon development in the form of the equation is called a trend. Often, the trend involves time regression; i.e. the coefficients of the proposed functions are often determined by the least squares method. To roughly determine the coefficients of the proposed function, the sum of three and three-point methods are also used. After checking the

  6. Uranium. Resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The events characterising the world uranium market in the last several years illustrate the persistent uncertainly faced by uranium producers and consumers worldwide. With world nuclear capacity expanding and uranium production satisfying only about 60 per cent of demand, uranium stockpiles continue to be depleted at a high rate. The uncertainty related to the remaining levels of world uranium stockpiles and to the amount of surplus defence material that will be entering the market makes it difficult to determine when a closer balance between uranium supply and demand will be reached. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand until well into the next century. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost reference on uranium. This world report is based on official information from 59 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration, production and demand as of 1 January 1997. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States, including the first-ever official reports on uranium production in Estonia, Mongolia, the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan. It also contains an international expert analysis of industry statistics and worldwide projections of nuclear energy growth, uranium requirements and uranium supply

  7. Criteria for demand response systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.

    2013-01-01

    The topic of demand side management is currently becoming more important than ever, in parallel with the further deregulation of the electricity sector, and the increasing integration of renewable energy sources. A historical review of automation integration in power system control assists in

  8. The moral demands of affluence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderholm, Jørn

    2015-01-01

    In 2004, Garrett Cullity made a significant contribution to the literature on what the world’s relatively affluent owe to the world’s relatively poor through the publishing of The Moral Demands of Affluence. In this discussion note, I draw attention to a logical problem in Cullity’s master argument...

  9. Future butanes supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitley, S.C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper graphically depicts, through in-depth supply/demand analysis, how environmental regulations can be both bad and good for an industry. In the case of n-butane, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) summertime gasoline volatility regulations are a culprit - threatening to ultimately destroy refinery demand for the product as a gasoline blendstock. Waiting in the wings are environmental regulations that should eventually prove to be n-butane's savior. The regulations referred to here are the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1990's mandate for motor fuel oxygenates. The negative impact of gasoline volatility regulations on U.S. n-butane demand and the positive impact that should come from the use of n-butane as a MTBE precursor are covered. Many variables exist which make studying the effects of these environmental regulations very difficult. Over the past three years RPC Group has conducted numerous studies on n-butane supply/demand, as impacted by both EPA gasoline volatility and fuel oxygenate regulations

  10. Smart Buildings and Demand Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Ghatikar, Girish

    2011-11-01

    Advances in communications and control technology, the strengthening of the Internet, and the growing appreciation of the urgency to reduce demand side energy use are motivating the development of improvements in both energy efficiency and demand response (DR) systems in buildings. This paper provides a framework linking continuous energy management and continuous communications for automated demand response (Auto-DR) in various times scales. We provide a set of concepts for monitoring and controls linked to standards and procedures such as Open Automation Demand Response Communication Standards (OpenADR). Basic building energy science and control issues in this approach begin with key building components, systems, end-uses and whole building energy performance metrics. The paper presents a framework about when energy is used, levels of services by energy using systems, granularity of control, and speed of telemetry. DR, when defined as a discrete event, requires a different set of building service levels than daily operations. We provide examples of lessons from DR case studies and links to energy efficiency.

  11. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

  12. The Cognitive Demands of Writing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrance, Mark; Jeffery, Gaynor

    1999-01-01

    Writing is a complex activity that places demands on cognitive resources. This volume presents original theory and research exploring the ways in which the sub-components of the writing process (generating and organizing content, producing grammatical sentences, etc.) differ in their cognitive

  13. Forecasting the Demand for Information Security Personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy Alexandrovich Malyuk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the formation of information society the problem of determining the demand for IS personnel (DfISP, consisting of IS specialists and IS practitioners, is of particular relevance at present. The goal of the paper is to calculate the demand for IS specialists (DfISS. To achieve it we used the informal heuristic methods and introduced some important indicators for DfISP forecast. As a validation of the conceptual approach proposed we show how to apply it on the regional level of one country on one real-world example. All the reasoning and calculations can be narrowed down to the DfISS forecasting within one corporation or IS professionals of a specific profile.

  14. Spatial dimensions of the demand for homeownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jens Fyhn Lykke

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of "spatial location satisfaction" and examines its relation to the individual demand for homeownership. Based on a Danish questionnaire survey carried out in a rural study area (N=1000) and in an urban study area (N=1015), a tenure choice model was estimated...... relating spatial location satisfaction to homeownership, while adjusting for control variables. The spatial location satisfaction variable was constructed from two questionnaire items asking respondents to state their actual and preferred place of settlement given five location type options: large city......, medium-sized city, small town, village, and "in the countryside". As hypothesised, the study shows a strong association between spatial location satisfaction and the individual demand for homeownership. This association is robust across study areas. Spatial location satisfaction is highest in the rural...

  15. Demand curves for hypothetical cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Matthew W

    2014-03-01

    Drug purchasing tasks have been successfully used to examine demand for hypothetical consumption of abused drugs including heroin, nicotine, and alcohol. In these tasks, drug users make hypothetical choices whether to buy drugs, and if so, at what quantity, at various potential prices. These tasks allow for behavioral economic assessment of that drug's intensity of demand (preferred level of consumption at extremely low prices) and demand elasticity (sensitivity of consumption to price), among other metrics. However, a purchasing task for cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals has not been investigated. This study examined a novel Cocaine Purchasing Task and the relation between resulting demand metrics and self-reported cocaine use data. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing hypothetical purchases of cocaine units at prices ranging from $0.01 to $1,000. Demand curves were generated from responses on the Cocaine Purchasing Task. Correlations compared metrics from the demand curve to measures of real-world cocaine use. Group and individual data were well modeled by a demand curve function. The validity of the Cocaine Purchasing Task was supported by a significant correlation between the demand curve metrics of demand intensity and O max (determined from Cocaine Purchasing Task data) and self-reported measures of cocaine use. Partial correlations revealed that after controlling for demand intensity, demand elasticity and the related measure, P max, were significantly correlated with real-world cocaine use. Results indicate that the Cocaine Purchasing Task produces orderly demand curve data, and that these data relate to real-world measures of cocaine use.

  16. Blockchain Based Decentralized Management of Demand Response Programs in Smart Energy Grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pop, Claudia; Cioara, Tudor; Antal, Marcel; Anghel, Ionut; Salomie, Ioan; Bertoncini, Massimo

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the use of decentralized blockchain mechanisms for delivering transparent, secure, reliable, and timely energy flexibility, under the form of adaptation of energy demand profiles of Distributed Energy Prosumers, to all the stakeholders involved in the flexibility markets (Distribution System Operators primarily, retailers, aggregators, etc.). In our approach, a blockchain based distributed ledger stores in a tamper proof manner the energy prosumption information collected from Internet of Things smart metering devices, while self-enforcing smart contracts programmatically define the expected energy flexibility at the level of each prosumer, the associated rewards or penalties, and the rules for balancing the energy demand with the energy production at grid level. Consensus based validation will be used for demand response programs validation and to activate the appropriate financial settlement for the flexibility providers. The approach was validated using a prototype implemented in an Ethereum platform using energy consumption and production traces of several buildings from literature data sets. The results show that our blockchain based distributed demand side management can be used for matching energy demand and production at smart grid level, the demand response signal being followed with high accuracy, while the amount of energy flexibility needed for convergence is reduced. PMID:29315250

  17. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Youngho

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.

  18. Short- and long-run time-of-use price elasticities in Swiss residential electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical analysis on the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day. This analysis has been performed using aggregate data at the city level for 22 Swiss cities for the period 2000-2006. For this purpose, we estimated two log-log demand equations for peak and off-peak electricity consumption using static and dynamic partial adjustment approaches. These demand functions were estimated using several econometric approaches for panel data, for example LSDV and RE for static models, and LSDV and corrected LSDV estimators for dynamic models. The attempt of this empirical analysis has been to highlight some of the characteristics of the Swiss residential electricity demand. The estimated short-run own price elasticities are lower than 1, whereas in the long-run these values are higher than 1. The estimated short-run and long-run cross-price elasticities are positive. This result shows that peak and off-peak electricity are substitutes. In this context, time differentiated prices should provide an economic incentive to customers so that they can modify consumption patterns by reducing peak demand and shifting electricity consumption from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Empirical analysis on the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day. → Estimators for dynamic panel data. → Peak and off-peak residential electricity are substitutes.

  19. PREDICTION OF DEMAND FOR PRIMARY BOND OFFERINGS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Tkac

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Primary bond markets represent an interesting investment opportunity not only for banks, insurance companies, and other institutional investors, but also for individuals looking for capital gains. Since offered securities vary in terms of their rating, industrial classification, coupon, or maturity, demand of buyers for particular offerings often overcomes issued volume and price of given bond on secondary market consequently rises. Investors might be regarded as consumers purchasing required service according to their specific preferences at desired price. This paper aims at analysis of demand for bonds on primary market using artificial neural networks.Design/methodology: We design a multilayered feedforward neural network trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to estimate demand for individual bonds based on parameters of particular offerings. Outcomes obtained by artificial neural network are compared with conventional econometric methods.Findings: Our results indicate that artificial neural network significantly outperformed standard econometric techniques and on examined sample of primary bond offerings achieved considerably better performance in terms of prediction accuracy and mean squared error.Originality: We show that proposed neural network is able to successfully predict demand for primary obligation offerings based on their specifications. Moreover, we identify relevant parameters of issues which are able to considerably affect total demand for given security.  Our findings might not only help investors to detect marketable securities, but also enable issuing entities to increase demand for their bonds in order to decrease their offering price. 

  20. Blockchain Based Decentralized Management of Demand Response Programs in Smart Energy Grids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pop, Claudia; Cioara, Tudor; Antal, Marcel; Anghel, Ionut; Salomie, Ioan; Bertoncini, Massimo

    2018-01-09

    In this paper, we investigate the use of decentralized blockchain mechanisms for delivering transparent, secure, reliable, and timely energy flexibility, under the form of adaptation of energy demand profiles of Distributed Energy Prosumers, to all the stakeholders involved in the flexibility markets (Distribution System Operators primarily, retailers, aggregators, etc.). In our approach, a blockchain based distributed ledger stores in a tamper proof manner the energy prosumption information collected from Internet of Things smart metering devices, while self-enforcing smart contracts programmatically define the expected energy flexibility at the level of each prosumer, the associated rewards or penalties, and the rules for balancing the energy demand with the energy production at grid level. Consensus based validation will be used for demand response programs validation and to activate the appropriate financial settlement for the flexibility providers. The approach was validated using a prototype implemented in an Ethereum platform using energy consumption and production traces of several buildings from literature data sets. The results show that our blockchain based distributed demand side management can be used for matching energy demand and production at smart grid level, the demand response signal being followed with high accuracy, while the amount of energy flexibility needed for convergence is reduced.

  1. Blockchain Based Decentralized Management of Demand Response Programs in Smart Energy Grids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Pop

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the use of decentralized blockchain mechanisms for delivering transparent, secure, reliable, and timely energy flexibility, under the form of adaptation of energy demand profiles of Distributed Energy Prosumers, to all the stakeholders involved in the flexibility markets (Distribution System Operators primarily, retailers, aggregators, etc.. In our approach, a blockchain based distributed ledger stores in a tamper proof manner the energy prosumption information collected from Internet of Things smart metering devices, while self-enforcing smart contracts programmatically define the expected energy flexibility at the level of each prosumer, the associated rewards or penalties, and the rules for balancing the energy demand with the energy production at grid level. Consensus based validation will be used for demand response programs validation and to activate the appropriate financial settlement for the flexibility providers. The approach was validated using a prototype implemented in an Ethereum platform using energy consumption and production traces of several buildings from literature data sets. The results show that our blockchain based distributed demand side management can be used for matching energy demand and production at smart grid level, the demand response signal being followed with high accuracy, while the amount of energy flexibility needed for convergence is reduced.

  2. Energy demand analysis of Port-Harcourt refinery, Nigeria and its policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jesuleye, O.A.; Siyanbola, W.O.; Sanni, S.A.; Ilori, M.O.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyses energy demand of Port-Harcourt refinery, Nigeria, based on information obtained from its annual publications, backed-up by spot interviews. The analytical approach adopted for the study involves the calculation of energy intensities to determine the refinery's annual energy demand for various energy types considered from 1989 to 2004. The results showed that the actual energy demand per year for processing crude oil into refined products, exceeded, in varying degrees the stipulated refinery standard of 4 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per 100 BOE. It varied from 4.28-8.58 BOE per 100 BOE. In terms of energy demand efficiency, this implies very poor performance of the refinery during the 16-year period under investigation. The excess demand which translates to an average daily wastage of about 2005 BOE is estimated to be $56,196 (US Dollars) based on the 2003 OPEC basket price of $28.0213 per barrel. Lack of optimal fuel utilization-mix and non-compliance with the Turn-Around-Maintenance schedules were attributed to the refinery's inefficient energy demand pattern

  3. Stochastic optimization of energy hub operation with consideration of thermal energy market and demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahid-Pakdel, M.J.; Nojavan, Sayyad; Mohammadi-ivatloo, B.; Zare, Kazem

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Studying heating market impact on energy hub operation considering price uncertainty. • Investigating impact of implementation of heat demand response on hub operation. • Presenting stochastic method to consider wind generation and prices uncertainties. - Abstract: Multi carrier energy systems or energy hubs has provided more flexibility for energy management systems. On the other hand, due to mutual impact of different energy carriers in energy hubs, energy management studies become more challengeable. The initial patterns of energy demands from grids point of view can be modified by optimal scheduling of energy hubs. In this work, optimal operation of multi carrier energy system has been studied in the presence of wind farm, electrical and thermal storage systems, electrical and thermal demand response programs, electricity market and thermal energy market. Stochastic programming is implemented for modeling the system uncertainties such as demands, market prices and wind speed. It is shown that adding new source of heat energy for providing demand of consumers with market mechanism changes the optimal operation point of multi carrier energy system. Presented mixed integer linear formulation for the problem has been solved by executing CPLEX solver of GAMS optimization software. Simulation results shows that hub’s operation cost reduces up to 4.8% by enabling the option of using thermal energy market for meeting heat demand.

  4. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inglesi, Roula [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Main Campus, Pretoria 0002 (South Africa)

    2010-01-15

    In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

  5. Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.; Kannan, Rajgopal; Chelmis, Charalampos; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2016-11-16

    In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D2R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D2R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D2R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

  6. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inglesi, Roula

    2010-01-01

    In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

  7. Physical Demand but Not Dexterity Is Associated with Motor Flexibility during Rapid Reaching in Healthy Young Adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Greve

    Full Text Available Healthy humans are able to place light and heavy objects in small and large target locations with remarkable accuracy. Here we examine how dexterity demand and physical demand affect flexibility in joint coordination and end-effector kinematics when healthy young adults perform an upper extremity reaching task. We manipulated dexterity demand by changing target size and physical demand by increasing external resistance to reaching. Uncontrolled manifold analysis was used to decompose variability in joint coordination patterns into variability stabilizing the end-effector and variability de-stabilizing the end-effector during reaching. Our results demonstrate a proportional increase in stabilizing and de-stabilizing variability without a change in the ratio of the two variability components as physical demands increase. We interpret this finding in the context of previous studies showing that sensorimotor noise increases with increasing physical demands. We propose that the larger de-stabilizing variability as a function of physical demand originated from larger sensorimotor noise in the neuromuscular system. The larger stabilizing variability with larger physical demands is a strategy employed by the neuromuscular system to counter the de-stabilizing variability so that performance stability is maintained. Our findings have practical implications for improving the effectiveness of movement therapy in a wide range of patient groups, maintaining upper extremity function in old adults, and for maximizing athletic performance.

  8. Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor A Johnsen

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

  9. Australia's long-term electricity demand forecasting using deep neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Joorabloo, Nima; Jalili, Mahdi

    2018-01-01

    Accurate prediction of long-term electricity demand has a significant role in demand side management and electricity network planning and operation. Demand over-estimation results in over-investment in network assets, driving up the electricity prices, while demand under-estimation may lead to under-investment resulting in unreliable and insecure electricity. In this manuscript, we apply deep neural networks to predict Australia's long-term electricity demand. A stacked autoencoder is used in...

  10. Balancing the Demands of Education and Training

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Mette Krogh; Sørensen, Jan Kahr

    Balancing the Demands of Education and Training – A Qualitative Study on Young Male Football Talents’ Dual Careers. M. K. Christensena and J. K. Sørensenb a Institute of Sports Science and Clinical Biomechanics, University of Southern Denmark b Department of Public Health – Sport Science, Aarhus...... University Workshop: Negotiating Athlete Identity in Career Transitions Abstract: Today’s young semi-professional football players are expected to continue their education while honing their talents as footballers. This means they must balance the contradictory demands that come from coming from the fields...... of education and of elite sport. At the same time elite sportspeople in the top international sports are being placed under increasing pressure as a result of the performance optimization approaches that are now a fundamental part of competing at the national elite level, and which have resulted...

  11. Demand Controlled Ventilation and Classroom Ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davies, Molly [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eliseeva, Ekaterina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faulkner, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hong, Tienzen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sullivan, Douglas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    This document summarizes a research effort on demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation. The research on demand controlled ventilation included field studies and building energy modeling.

  12. Demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davies, Molly [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eliseeva, Ekaterina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faulkner, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hong, Tienzen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sullivan, Douglas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-01-06

    This document summarizes a research effort on demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation. The research on demand controlled ventilation included field studies and building energy modeling.

  13. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  14. Revenue Improvement Through Demand-Dependent Pricing of Network Services

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sanders, David

    2000-01-01

    ... of the expectation of rewards based upon variable demands. This work shows that revenue improvement can occur in this network environment when a dynamic pricing policy is applied as opposed to optimal static pricing...

  15. Support Resources Demand Parameters - Aircraft. Revision A

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-15

    Maintenance Squadron A- ST Advance Medium STOL Transport APU Auxillary Power Unit ASSY Assembly ATC Air Training Command AVG Average BAC Boeing Aerospace...entire study that will result in an organized and prioritized body of decision criteria and parameters that may be used by logistics managers, supervisors...technicians, and other decision makers in the process of predicting resource demand rates for operational and new emerging aircraft weapon systems

  16. Price Sensitivity of Demand for Prescription Drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne; Skipper, Lars; Skipper, Niels

    2016-01-01

    We investigate price sensitivity of demand for prescription drugs, using drug purchase records for the entire Danish population. We identify price responsiveness by exploiting variation in prices caused by kinked reimbursement schemes and implement a regression kink design. The results suggest some...... price responsiveness with corresponding price elasticities ranging from −0.2 to −0.7. Individuals with chronic disease and especially individuals above the age of 65 respond less to the price of drugs....

  17. Panorama 2009 - oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The year 2008 will probably go down in the annals of the oil industry along with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, the counter-shock of 1986 and the demand surge of 2004. The price spikes observed until the month of July were unusually high, followed by an unusually abrupt, steep decrease. This is the result of the short-sightedness shown by all market players, most of whom failed to anticipate the economic downturn

  18. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    theory. Both results would not necessarily be achieved using standard econometric methods. The final chapter "Daylight Time and Energy" uses a quasi-experiment to evaluate a popular energy conservation policy: we challenge the conventional wisdom that extending Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces energy demand. Using detailed panel data on half-hourly electricity consumption, prices, and weather conditions from four Australian states we employ a novel 'triple-difference' technique to test the electricity-saving hypothesis. We show that the extension failed to reduce electricity demand and instead increased electricity prices. We also apply the most sophisticated electricity simulation model available in the literature to the Australian data. We find that prior simulation models significantly overstate electricity savings. Our results suggest that extending DST will fail as an instrument to save energy resources.

  19. Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

    2012-06-01

    Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

  20. Demand response driven load pattern elasticity analysis for smart households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paterakis, N.G.; Catalao, J.P.S.; Tascikaraoglu, A.; Bakirtzis, A.G.; Erdinc, O.

    2015-01-01

    The recent interest in smart grid vision enables several smart applications in different parts of the power grid structure, where specific importance should be given to the demand side. As a result, changes in load patterns due to demand response (DR) activities at end-user premises, such as smart