WorldWideScience

Sample records for demand results show

  1. Smart Demand for Frequency Regulation: Experimental Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Douglass, Philip James; Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; Nyeng, Preben

    2013-01-01

    As renewable energy sources increase their penetration, the traditional providers of frequency regulation service, fossil fueled thermal power plants, will be displaced, motivating the search for novel providers such as demandside resources. This paper presents the results of field experiments......, industrial pump loads and relay-controlled loads were tested as DFCR. The tests show that a population of refrigerators was able to deliver frequency reserves approximately equal to their average power consumption. Electric space heaters were able to provide frequency reserves of over 90% their maximum power...

  2. Children with dyslexia show cortical hyperactivation in response to increasing literacy processing demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frøydis eMorken

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This fMRI study aimed to examine how differences in literacy processing demands may affect cortical activation patterns in 11- to 12-year-old children with dyslexia as compared to children with typical reading skills. 11 children with and 18 without dyslexia were assessed using a reading paradigm based on different stages of literacy development. In the analyses, six regions showed an interaction effect between group and condition in a factorial ANOVA. These regions were selected as regions of interest for further analyses. Overall, the dyslexia group showed cortical hyperactivation compared to the typical group. The difference between the groups tended to increase with increasing processing demands. Differences in cortical activation were not reflected in in-scanner reading performance. The six regions further grouped into three patterns, which are discussed in terms of processing demands, compensatory mechanisms, orthography and contextual facilitation. We conclude that the observed hyperactivation is chiefly a result of compensatory activity, modulated by other factors.

  3. Results and commissioning issues from an automated demand responsepilot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, Dave; Sezgen, Osman; Motegi, Naoya

    2004-08-05

    This paper describes a research project to develop and test Automated Demand Response hardware and software technology in large facilities. We describe the overall project and some of the commissioning and system design problems that took place. Demand Response (DR) is a set of activities to reduce or shift electricity use to improve the electric grid reliability purposes, manage electricity costs, and ensure that customers receive signals that encourage load reduction during times when the electric grid is near its capacity. There were a number of specific commissioning challenges in conducting this test including software compatibility, incorrect time zones, IT and EMCS failures, and hardware issues. The knowledge needed for this type of system commissioning combines knowledge of building controls with network management and knowledge of emerging information technologies.

  4. Results and commissioning issues from an automated demand responsepilot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, Dave; Sezgen, Osman; Motegi, Naoya

    2004-08-05

    This paper describes a research project to develop and test Automated Demand Response hardware and software technology in large facilities. We describe the overall project and some of the commissioning and system design problems that took place. Demand Response (DR) is a set of activities to reduce or shift electricity use to improve the electric grid reliability purposes, manage electricity costs, and ensure that customers receive signals that encourage load reduction during times when the electric grid is near its capacity. There were a number of specific commissioning challenges in conducting this test including software compatibility, incorrect time zones, IT and EMCS failures, and hardware issues. The knowledge needed for this type of system commissioning combines knowledge of building controls with network management and knowledge of emerging information technologies.

  5. Demand and willingness-to-pay for bed nets in Tanzania: results from a choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingrich, Chris D; Ricotta, Emily; Kahwa, Amos; Kahabuka, Catherine; Koenker, Hannah

    2017-07-14

    Universal coverage campaigns for long-lasting insecticide-treated nets do not always reach the goal of one net for every two household members, and even when ownership of at least one net per household is high, many households may not own enough nets. The retail market provides these households options for replacing or increasing the number of nets they own with products that best fit their needs since a variety of net shapes, sizes, and colours are available. Hence, it is important to understand the factors affecting private net demand. This study explores private demand for nets in Tanzania using a discrete choice experiment. The experiment provides participants the option to buy nets with their own money, and thus should prove more accurate than a hypothetical survey of net preferences. Nearly 800 participants sampled in two regions showed an overall strong demand for nets, with 40% choosing to buy a net across all seven combinations of net prices and characteristics such as size, shape, and insecticide treatment. Only 8% of all participants chose not to buy a single net. A key factor influencing demand was whether a participant's household currently owned sufficient nets for all members, with rural participants showing lower net coverage and greater demand than urban participants. Both poor and less poor households showed strong evidence of making purchase decisions based on more than price alone. Mean willingness-to-pay values for a net started at US$1.10 and grew by US$0.50-1.40 for various attributes such as rectangular shape, large size, and insecticide treatment. The impact of price on demand was negative but small, with elasticity values between -0.25 and -0.45. The results suggest that private demand for nets in Tanzania could potentially supplement future coverage campaigns. Net manufacturers and retailers should advertise and promote consumers' preferred net attributes to improve sales and further expand net access and coverage. To overcome household

  6. MODELING OF THE PROCESS OF FORMATION OF INDIVIDUAL MARKETING DEMAND: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND GENERALIZATION OF THE PRECEDING CORRESPONDING RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly V. Korotkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the modeling of series-STI formation of individual market demand. The analysis, and then sum-of three well-known inmarketing models, which exhaust the currentlyknown approaches is revised. The article shows that all three models have a signifi cant difference in the number of stages and terminology. The obtained results are the basis for the developmentof the author’s model of gradual development of demand - «need - desire - requirement -demand» or abbreviated as «model NDRD» and can be considered as a contribution to the methodology of study a demand.

  7. Modeling the Capacity and Emissions Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand. Part 1. Methodology and Preliminary Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Shen, Hongxia [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Chan, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; McDevitt, Brian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Sturges, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division

    2013-02-07

    Policies aimed at energy conservation and efficiency have broad environmental and economic impacts. Even if these impacts are relatively small, they may be significant compared to the cost of implementing the policy. Methodologies that quantify the marginal impacts of reduced demand for energy have an important role to play in developing accurate measures of both the benefits and costs of a given policy choice. This report presents a methodology for estimating the impacts of reduced demand for electricity on the electric power sector as a whole. The approach uses the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a mid-range energy forecast model developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)(DOE EIA 2013). The report is organized as follows: In the rest of this section the traditional NEMS-BT approach is reviewed and an outline of the new reduced form NEMS methodology is presented. Section 2 provides an overview of how the NEMS model works, and describes the set of NEMS-BT runs that are used as input to the reduced form approach. Section 3 presents our NEMS-BT simulation results and post-processing methods. In Section 4 we show how the NEMS-BT output can be generalized to apply to a broader set of end-uses. In Section 5 we disuss the application of this approach to policy analysis, and summarize some of the issues that will be further investigated in Part 2 of this study.

  8. The effect of perceived risks on the demand for vaccination: results from a discrete choice experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Z Sadique

    Full Text Available The demand for vaccination against infectious diseases involves a choice between vaccinating and not vaccinating, in which there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of each option. The aim of this paper is to investigate these trade-offs and to estimate how the perceived prevalence and severity of both the disease against which the vaccine is given and any vaccine associated adverse events (VAAE might affect demand. A discrete choice experiment (DCE was used to elicit stated preferences from a representative sample of 369 U.K. mothers of children below 5 years of age, for three hypothetical vaccines. Cost was included as an attribute, which enabled estimation of the willingness to pay for different vaccines having differing levels of the probability of occurrence and severity of both the infection and VAAE. The results suggest that the severity of the health effects associated with both the diseases and VAAEs exert an important influence on the demand for vaccination, whereas the probability of these events occurring was not a significant predictor. This has important implications for public health policy, which has tended to focus on the probability of these health effects as the main influence on decision making. Our results also suggest that anticipated regrets about the consequences of making the wrong decision also exert an influence on demand.

  9. Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conzelmann, G. [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States); Quintanilla, J. [Nacional de Autonoma de Mexico Univ., Mexico City (Mexico). Direccion General de Servicios de Computo Academico; Aguilar, V. [Secretaria de Energia, Mexico City (Mexico); Conde, L.A. [Inst. Nacional de Ecologia, Mexico City (Mexico); Fernandez, J. [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Mexico City (Mexico); Mar, E. [Inst. Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico City (Mexico); Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R. [Nacional de Autonoma de Mexico Univ., Mexico City (Mexico). Facultad de Ingenieria

    2006-04-15

    This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas

  10. Result checking concerning on-demand ventilation and residential comfort; Erfolgskontrolle Bedarfslueftung und Wohnkomfort - Schlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerber, D.; Amsler, S.

    2000-07-01

    This report takes a look at the results of a study made on end-user behaviour, acceptance and room-air quality in housing fitted with on-demand ventilation. A total of 274 various apartments at five locations in Switzerland were analysed over a period of six years. The varying factors at the different locations are discussed. The results obtained are commented on. Conclusions and recommendations are made for future installations. The methods used for the survey are discussed, as are questioning methods and the questionnaires used. The results include information on household structures and occupation, airing habits, room temperature and quality, humidity, unpleasant odours, noise and traffic noise as well as health and social aspects. Knowledge gained and questions still to be answered are noted.

  11. Residential demand for energy: A review of the empirical literature and some new results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, S. N.

    1983-01-01

    Demand for energy is derived from the demand for particular end-use service (e.g., warmth, cooling, clothes drying, etc.). This derivative nature of energy demand gives rise to two major, although interrelated, issues: first, a complete model must consider both the demand for services and the demand for energy-using equipment; second, the essentially dynamic nature of the demand requires a clear delineation between short-run and long-run responses. Because of their durability, appliance stocks will be adjusted only over a period of time. In contrast, the intensity of utilization of a given appliance portfolio can be adjusted fairly rapidly. In the short run, defined as the period of time during which appliance stocks are fixed, households are essentially limited in their ability to respond to changes in fuel prices and income. In the long run, households may alter their stock of energy using equipment to reflect more accurately their desired capital stock. As such, longer run responses will be much larger in magnitude than short run responses.

  12. Astronomy Diagnostic Test Results Reflect Course Goals and Show Room for Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoPresto, Michael C.

    2007-01-01

    The results of administering the Astronomy Diagnostic Test (ADT) to introductory astronomy students at Henry Ford Community College over three years have shown gains comparable with national averages. Results have also accurately corresponded to course goals, showing greater gains in topics covered in more detail, and lower gains in topics covered…

  13. Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemenway, David; Webster, Daniel; Pierce, Glenn; Braga, Anthony A.

    2010-01-01

    A widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence is being cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. We believe the study is fatally flawed. A working paper entitled “The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas” outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. We believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by 1 of its own authors’ prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy. PMID:20724672

  14. Gun shows and gun violence: fatally flawed study yields misleading results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintemute, Garen J; Hemenway, David; Webster, Daniel; Pierce, Glenn; Braga, Anthony A

    2010-10-01

    A widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence is being cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. We believe the study is fatally flawed. A working paper entitled "The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas" outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. We believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by 1 of its own authors' prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy.

  15. Costs to Automate Demand Response - Taxonomy and Results from Field Studies and Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schetrit, Oren [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Cheung, Iris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Li, Becky Z [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-07-31

    During the past decade, the technology to automate demand response (DR) in buildings and industrial facilities has advanced significantly. Automation allows rapid, repeatable, reliable operation. This study focuses on costs for DR automation in commercial buildings with some discussion on residential buildings and industrial facilities. DR automation technology relies on numerous components, including communication systems, hardware and software gateways, standards-based messaging protocols, controls and integration platforms, and measurement and telemetry systems. This report compares cost data from several DR automation programs and pilot projects, evaluates trends in the cost per unit of DR and kilowatts (kW) available from automated systems, and applies a standard naming convention and classification or taxonomy for system elements. Median costs for the 56 installed automated DR systems studied here are about $200/kW. The deviation around this median is large with costs in some cases being an order of magnitude great or less than the median. This wide range is a result of variations in system age, size of load reduction, sophistication, and type of equipment included in cost analysis. The costs to automate fast DR systems for ancillary services are not fully analyzed in this report because additional research is needed to determine the total cost to install, operate, and maintain these systems. However, recent research suggests that they could be developed at costs similar to those of existing hot-summer DR automation systems. This report considers installation and configuration costs and does include the costs of owning and operating DR automation systems. Future analysis of the latter costs should include the costs to the building or facility manager costs as well as utility or third party program manager cost.

  16. Supply and Demand for Improved Sanitation: Results from Randomized Pricing Experiments in Rural Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peletz, Rachel; Cock-Esteb, Alicea; Ysenburg, Dorothea; Haji, Salim; Khush, Ranjiv; Dupas, Pascaline

    2017-06-20

    Improving access to sanitation is a global public health priority. Sufficient consumer demand is required for sanitation coverage to expand through private provision. To measure consumer demand for hygienic latrine platform products in rural Tanzania, we conducted a randomized, voucher-based real-money sales trial with 1638 households with unimproved latrines. We also evaluated multiple supply chain options to determine the costs of supplying latrine platform products to rural households. For concrete latrine SanPlats, 60% of households were willing to pay US$0.48 and 10% of households were willing to pay US$4.05, yet the average cost of supplying the SanPlat to households was US$7.51. Similarly, for plastic sanitary platforms, willingness-to-pay (WTP) dropped from almost 60% at a price of US$1.43 to 5% at a price of US$12.29, compared to an average supply cost of US$23.28. WTP was not significantly different between villages that had participated in the National Sanitation Campaign and those that had not. Randomized informational interventions, including hygiene data-sharing and peer-based exposure to latrine platform products, had minimal effects on WTP. In conclusion, current household demand for latrine platform products is too low to achieve national goals for improved sanitation coverage through fully commercial distribution.

  17. The demand for sports and exercise: results from an illustrative survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anokye, Nana Kwame; Pokhrel, Subhash; Buxton, Martin; Fox-Rushby, Julia

    2012-06-01

    There is a paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which price and perceived benefits affect the level of participation in sports and exercise. Using an illustrative sample of 60 adults at Brunel University, West London, we investigate the determinants of demand for sports and exercise. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews that covered indicators of sports and exercise behaviour; money/time price and perceived benefits of participation; and socio-economic/demographic details. Count, linear and probit regression models were fitted as appropriate. Seventy eight per cent of the sample participated in sports and exercise and spent an average of £27 per month and an average of 20 min travelling per occasion of sports and exercise. The demand for sport and exercise was negatively associated with time (travel or access time) and 'variable' price and positively correlated with 'fixed' price. Demand was price inelastic, except in the case of meeting the UK government's recommended level of participation, which is time price elastic (elasticity = -2.2). The implications of data from a larger nationally representative sample as well as the role of economic incentives in influencing uptake of sports and exercise are discussed.

  18. CONSUMER DEMAND FOR FOOD DIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Jonq-Ying; Mark G. Brown

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, consumer demand for food diversity is measured by the entropy and Simpson indices for budget shares. Results show that consumer demand for food diversity is related to total food expenditures and household size and composition.

  19. [Pediatric intermediate care demand, results of a survey in 3 French regions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiriez, G; Lefebvre, A

    2010-08-01

    In France, recent legislation for pediatric critical care organization endorsed the creation of a new level of pediatric care, the intermediate care units. These units treat children who require close monitoring and/or continuous monitoring due to potential failure of 1 or more organs, yet not to the degree of intensity of pediatric critical care. These rules do not provide precise admission and discharge guidelines for the pediatric patients requiring intermediate care. We conducted a questionnaire survey in all pediatric units in 3 French regions: Franche-Comté, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, and Rhône-Alpes. We obtained a response rate of 62.2% from the pediatric units. We estimated the pediatric intermediate care demand, with a unit occupancy rate of 80%, at 1.2 beds per 10 pediatric medical beds, 2.6 beds per 10 surgical beds, and 4 beds per 10 critical care unit beds or hemato-oncology beds. The intermediate care demand was higher in university-affiliated hospitals. One-third of the children referred to these units were less than 1 year old, 1/4 were less than 6 months old. We also described the diseases and potential organ failures of the patients who were referred to these intermediate care units. This study provides an estimate of the demand for pediatric intermediate care as defined in the French legislation and therefore helps implement projects to create such units. More specific criteria are still needed to oversee the implementation of these projects. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. The Job Demands-Job Control Model and absence behaviour : results of a 3-year longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.G.W.; Nijhuis, F.J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical results of earlier studies only marginally supported the relevance of Karasek's Job Demands-Job Control Model for absence behaviour. Since longitudinal studies with respect to these relations were largely lacking, a four-wave panel study was carried out using data from 1755 male employees

  1. Long-Term Trial Results Show No Mortality Benefit from Annual Prostate Cancer Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirteen year follow-up data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial show higher incidence but similar mortality among men screened annually with the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test and digital rectal examination

  2. Test Results for Caustic Demand Measurements on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, Stephanie R. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA (United States); Bolling, Stacie D. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-07-14

    Caustic demand testing is used to determine the necessary amount of caustic required to neutralize species present in the Hanford tank waste and obtain a target molarity of free hydroxide for tank corrosion control. The presence and quantity of hydroxide-consuming analytes are just as important in determining the caustic demand as is the amount of free hydroxide present. No single data point can accurately predict whether a satisfactory hydroxide level is being met, as it is dependent on multiple factors (e.g., free hydroxide, buffers, amphoteric metal hydroxides, bicarbonate, etc.). This enclosure contains the caustic demand, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), polarized light microscopy (PLM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis for the tank 241-AX-101 (AX-101) and 241-AX-103 (AX-103) samples. The work was completed to fulfill a customer request outlined in the test plan, WRPS-1505529, “Test Plan and Procedure for Caustic Demand Testing on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples.” The work results will provide a baseline to support planned retrieval of AX-101 and AX-103.

  3. Test Results for Caustic Demand Measurements on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, Stephanie R. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA (United States); Bolling, Stacie D. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-07-14

    Caustic demand testing is used to determine the necessary amount of caustic required to neutralize species present in the Hanford tank waste and obtain a target molarity of free hydroxide for tank corrosion control. The presence and quantity of hydroxide-consuming analytes are just as important in determining the caustic demand as is the amount of free hydroxide present. No single data point can accurately predict whether a satisfactory hydroxide level is being met as it is dependent on multiple factors (e.g., free hydroxide, buffers, amphoteric metal hydroxides, bicarbonate, etc.). This enclosure contains the caustic demand, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), polarized light microscopy (PLM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis for the tank 241-AX-101 (AX-101) and 241-AX-103 (AX-103) samples. The work was completed to fulfill a customer request outlined in the test plan, WRPS-1505529, “Test Plan and Procedure for Caustic Demand Testing on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples.” The work results will provide a baseline to support planned retrieval of AX-101 and AX-103.

  4. Comparison of some results of program SHOW with other solar hot water computer programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, M. F.; Baughn, J. W.

    Subroutines and the driver program for the simulation code SHOW (solar hot water) for solar thermosyphon systems are discussed, and simulations are compared with predictions by the F-CHART and TRNSYS codes. SHOW has the driver program MAIN, which defines the system control logic for choosing the appropriate system subroutine for analysis. Ten subroutines are described, which account for the solar system physical parameters, the weather data, the manufacturer-supplied system specifications, mass flow rates, pumped systems, total transformed radiation, load use profiles, stratification in storage, an electric water heater, and economic analyses. The three programs are employed to analyze a thermosiphon installation in Sacramento with two storage tanks. TRNSYS and SHOW were in agreement and lower than F-CHARt for annual predictions, although significantly more computer time was necessary to make TRNSYS converge.

  5. Results From Mars Show Electrostatic Charging of the Mars Pathfinder Sojourner Rover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolecki, Joseph C.; Siebert, Mark W.

    1998-01-01

    Indirect evidence (dust accumulation) has been obtained indicating that the Mars Pathfinder rover, Sojourner, experienced electrostatic charging on Mars. Lander camera images of the Sojourner rover provide distinctive evidence of dust accumulation on rover wheels during traverses, turns, and crabbing maneuvers. The sol 22 (22nd Martian "day" after Pathfinder landed) end-of-day image clearly shows fine red dust concentrated around the wheel edges with additional accumulation in the wheel hubs. A sol 41 image of the rover near the rock "Wedge" (see the next image) shows a more uniform coating of dust on the wheel drive surfaces with accumulation in the hubs similar to that in the previous image. In the sol 41 image, note particularly the loss of black-white contrast on the Wheel Abrasion Experiment strips (center wheel). This loss of contrast was also seen when dust accumulated on test wheels in the laboratory. We believe that this accumulation occurred because the Martian surface dust consists of clay-sized particles, similar to those detected by Viking, which have become electrically charged. By adhering to the wheels, the charged dust carries a net nonzero charge to the rover, raising its electrical potential relative to its surroundings. Similar charging behavior was routinely observed in an experimental facility at the NASA Lewis Research Center, where a Sojourner wheel was driven in a simulated Martian surface environment. There, as the wheel moved and accumulated dust (see the following image), electrical potentials in excess of 100 V (relative to the chamber ground) were detected by a capacitively coupled electrostatic probe located 4 mm from the wheel surface. The measured wheel capacitance was approximately 80 picofarads (pF), and the calculated charge, 8 x 10(exp -9) coulombs (C). Voltage differences of 100 V and greater are believed sufficient to produce Paschen electrical discharge in the Martian atmosphere. With an accumulated net charge of 8 x 10(exp

  6. Data for behavioral results and brain regions showing a time effect during pair-association retrieval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koji Jimura

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The current data article provides behavioral and neuroimaging data for the research article "Relatedness-dependent rapid development of brain activity in anterior temporal cortex during pair-association retrieval” (Jimura et al., 2016 [1]. Behavioral performance is provided in a table. Fig. 2 of the article is based on this table. Brain regions showing time effect are provided in a table. A statistical activation map for the time effect is shown in Fig. 3C of the article.

  7. Animation shows promise in initiating timely cardiopulmonary resuscitation: results of a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attin, Mina; Winslow, Katheryn; Smith, Tyler

    2014-04-01

    Delayed responses during cardiac arrest are common. Timely interventions during cardiac arrest have a direct impact on patient survival. Integration of technology in nursing education is crucial to enhance teaching effectiveness. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of animation on nursing students' response time to cardiac arrest, including initiation of timely chest compression. Nursing students were randomized into experimental and control groups prior to practicing in a high-fidelity simulation laboratory. The experimental group was educated, by discussion and animation, about the importance of starting cardiopulmonary resuscitation upon recognizing an unresponsive patient. Afterward, a discussion session allowed students in the experimental group to gain more in-depth knowledge about the most recent changes in the cardiac resuscitation guidelines from the American Heart Association. A linear mixed model was run to investigate differences in time of response between the experimental and control groups while controlling for differences in those with additional degrees, prior code experience, and basic life support certification. The experimental group had a faster response time compared with the control group and initiated timely cardiopulmonary resuscitation upon recognition of deteriorating conditions (P < .0001). The results demonstrated the efficacy of combined teaching modalities for timely cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Providing opportunities for repetitious practice when a patient's condition is deteriorating is crucial for teaching safe practice.

  8. FES Training in Aging: interim results show statistically significant improvements in mobility and muscle fiber size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmut Kern

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Aging is a multifactorial process that is characterized by decline in muscle mass and performance. Several factors, including reduced exercise, poor nutrition and modified hormonal metabolism, are responsible for changes in the rates of protein synthesis and degradation that drive skeletal muscle mass reduction with a consequent decline of force generation and mobility functional performances. Seniors with normal life style were enrolled: two groups in Vienna (n=32 and two groups in Bratislava: (n=19. All subjects were healthy and declared not to have any specific physical/disease problems. The two Vienna groups of seniors exercised for 10 weeks with two different types of training (leg press at the hospital or home-based functional electrical stimulation, h-b FES. Demografic data (age, height and weight were recorded before and after the training period and before and after the training period the patients were submitted to mobility functional analyses and muscle biopsies. The mobility functional analyses were: 1. gait speed (10m test fastest speed, in m/s; 2. time which the subject needed to rise from a chair for five times (5x Chair-Rise, in s; 3. Timed –Up-Go- Test, in s; 4. Stair-Test, in s; 5. isometric measurement of quadriceps force (Torque/kg, in Nm/kg; and 6. Dynamic Balance in mm. Preliminary analyses of muscle biopsies from quadriceps in some of the Vienna and Bratislava patients present morphometric results consistent with their functional behaviors. The statistically significant improvements in functional testings here reported demonstrates the effectiveness of h-b FES, and strongly support h-b FES, as a safe home-based method to improve contractility and performances of ageing muscles.

  9. Demands placed on waste package performance testing and modeling by some general results on reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chesnut, D.A.

    1991-09-01

    Waste packages for a US nuclear waste repository are required to provide reasonable assurance of maintaining substantially complete containment of radionuclides for 300 to 1000 years after closure. The waiting time to failure for complex failure processes affecting engineered or manufactured systems is often found to be an exponentially-distributed random variable. Assuming that this simple distribution can be used to describe the behavior of a hypothetical single barrier waste package, calculations presented in this paper show that the mean time to failure (the only parameter needed to completely specify an exponential distribution) would have to be more than 10{sub 7} years in order to provide reasonable assurance of meeting this requirement. With two independent barriers, each would need to have a mean time to failure of only 10{sup 5} years to provide the same reliability. Other examples illustrate how multiple barriers can provide a strategy for not only achieving but demonstrating regulatory compliance.

  10. The Demand for Disaster Microinsurance for Small Businesses in Urban Slums: The Results of Surveys in Three Indian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ronak; Walker, Garrett; Bhatt, Mihir; Pathak, Vishal

    2017-01-01

    Background: Small informal businesses make up the core markets for many poor urban communities, providing essential goods, services, and livelihoods. Many of these communities and businesses exist in hazardous locations. In most cases, these business owners do not have access to proper coping mechanisms including risk transfer and lack resilience to shocks. Access to risk-transfer in the form of insurance for these small businesses is extremely limited. This demand survey is the first phase of an intervention to test disaster microinsurance for these businesses. Previous research has examined the demand for and value of microinsurance to protect poor households but not micro- and medium-sized informal urban businesses. Objective: This study investigates knowledge about and demand for microinsurance among small informal business owners in three different cities of India. Methods: Survey of all informal business owners (n=4919) identified through purposive sampling of the most vulnerable in three proposed study sites: Guwahati in Assam (n=1622), Puri in Odisha (n=1551) and Cuddalore in Tamil Nadu (n=1746). Results: Our findings reflect that while small business owners largely did not know about disaster microinsurance, after describing it, a vast majority wanted to subscribe to such a program. Without it, they often rely on personal savings, forgo basic necessities, or take out costly loans that trap them in debt to cope with disasters. Discussion: This research supports the need for more experiments on actual adoption patterns, feasibility studies, and innovative trial programs by governments, non-governmental organizations, and insurance providers. PMID:28357153

  11. [Domestic violence against women and health care demands. Results of a female emergency department patient survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzank, P; Hellbernd, H; Maschewsky-Schneider, U; Kallischnigg, G

    2005-03-01

    Domestic violence (DV) is a serious risk for women's health. So far, little attention has been paid to this area in research and medical care in Germany. Acknowledging this deficit, the S.I.G.N.A.L.-Intervention Project has started to develop a program to improve the medical care for victimized women. For the first time in Germany, data on the health care needs of victimized women have been collected within the S.I.G.N.A.L.-Evaluation Research Project. This article presents the results of a female patient survey (n=806) on DV conducted in the emergency department (ED) of a university hospital in Berlin. The results demonstrate that 36.6% of women reported at least one episode of DV after the age of 16. A total of 4.6% were victims of DV over the past year, and 1.5% of women came to the ED for treatment of injuries caused by violence. A total of 57% of the victims of at least one episode of DV in their lifetime after the age of 16 described a negative impact on their health. The most frequently reported sequelae were head injuries, haematomas and fractures, gastrointestinal disorders, headache/migraine and heart disease. The psychological symptoms were anxiety, depression and suicide/self-mutilation attempts. Some 52% of the victims who reported health consequences had received medical care. In case of DV occurring, 67% of all women said that they would discuss it with their physicians. Approximately 80% of all respondents favoured a routine inquiry for DV as part of the medical history protocol of the ED.

  12. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  13. Increasing access to institutional deliveries using demand and supply side incentives: early results from a quasi-experimental study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serwadda David

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Geographical inaccessibility, lack of transport, and financial burdens are some of the demand side constraints to maternal health services in Uganda, while supply side problems include poor quality services related to unmotivated health workers and inadequate supplies. Most public health interventions in Uganda have addressed only selected supply side issues, and universities have focused their efforts on providing maternal services at tertiary hospitals. To demonstrate how reforms at Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS can lead to making systemic changes that can improve maternal health services, a demand and supply side strategy was developed by working with local communities and national stakeholders. Methods This quasi-experimental trial is conducted in two districts in Eastern Uganda. The supply side component includes health worker refresher training and additions of minimal drugs and supplies, whereas the demand side component involves vouchers given to pregnant women for motorcycle transport and the payment to service providers for antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care. The trial is ongoing, but early analysis from routine health information systems on the number of services used is presented. Results Motorcyclists in the community organized themselves to accept vouchers in exchange for transport for antenatal care, deliveries and postnatal care, and have become actively involved in ensuring that women obtain care. Increases in antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care were demonstrated, with the number of safe deliveries in the intervention area immediately jumping from Conclusions Transport and service vouchers appear to be a viable strategy for rapidly increasing maternal care. MakCHS can design strategies together with stakeholders using a learning-by-doing approach to take advantage of community resources.

  14. Technical Workers in Great Demand

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The Labor and Social Security Ministry conducted a survey on 81 labor markets across China in the second quarter of this year, the results of which showed that the demand for technical workers, especially those of middle and senior titles, far outnumbers the supply.The survey shows that the demand/supply

  15. The composition of demand for newly launched vaccines: results from the pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccine introductions in Ethiopia and Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidane, Teklay; Chirwa, Geoffrey; Tesfaye, Neghist; Prescott, Marta R; Scotney, Soleine T; Valle, Moussa; Abebe, Sintayehu; Tambuli, Adija; Malewezi, Bridget; Mohammed, Tahir; Kobayashi, Emily; Wootton, Emily; Wong, Renee; Dosani, Rahima; Subramaniam, Hamsa; Joseph, Jessica; Yavuz, Elif; Apple, Aliza; Le Tallec, Yann; Kang’ethe, Alice

    2016-01-01

    Understanding post-launch demand for new vaccines can help countries maximize the benefits of immunization programmes. In particular, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) should ensure adequate resource planning with regards to stock consumption and service delivery for new vaccines, whereas global suppliers must produce enough vaccines to meet demand. If a country underestimates the number of children seeking vaccination, a stock-out of commodities will create missed opportunities for saving lives. We describe the post-launch demand for the first dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV1) in Ethiopia and Malawi and the first dose of rotavirus vaccine (Rota1) in Malawi, with focus on the new birth cohort and the ‘backlog cohort’, comprised of older children who are still eligible for vaccination at the time of launch. PCV1 and Rota1 uptake were compared with the demand for the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1), a routine immunization that targets the same age group and immunization schedule. In the first year, the total demand for PCV1 was 37% greater than that of Penta1 in Ethiopia and 59% greater in Malawi. In the first 6 months, the demand of Rota1 was only 5.9% greater than Penta1 demand in Malawi. Over the first three post-introduction months, 70.7% of PCV1 demand in Ethiopia and 71.5% of demand in Malawi came from children in the backlog cohort, whereas only 28.0% of Rota1 demand in Malawi was from the backlog cohort. The composition of demand was impacted by time elapsed since vaccine introduction and age restrictions. Evidence suggests that countries’ plans should account for the impact of backlog demand, especially in the first 3 months post-introduction. LMICs should request for higher stock volumes when compared with routine needs, plan social mobilization activities to reach the backlog cohort and allocate human resources and cold chain capacity to accommodate high demand following vaccine introduction. PMID:26856361

  16. ISO New England: Results of Ancillary Service Pilot Programs, Alternative Technology Regulation Pilot Program and Demand Response Reserves Pilot Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowell, Jon [ISO New England, Holyoke, MA (United States); Yoshimura, Henry [ISO New England, Holyoke, MA (United States)

    2011-10-26

    This PowerPoint presentation compares performance of pilot program assets and generation resources in alternative technology regulation and demand response reserves for flywheels and residential electric thermal storage.

  17. Is the effect of job strain on myocardial infarction risk due to interaction between high psychological demands and low decision latitude? Results from Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program (SHEEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallqvist, J; Diderichsen, F; Theorell, T; Reuterwall, C; Ahlbom, A

    1998-06-01

    The objectives are to examine if the excess risk of myocardial infarction from exposure to job strain is due to interaction between high demands and low control and to analyse what role such an interaction has regarding socioeconomic differences in risk of myocardial infarction. The material is a population-based case-referent study having incident first events of myocardial infarction as outcome (SHEEP: Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program). The analysis is restricted to males 45-64 yr of age with a more detailed analysis confined to those still working at inclusion. In total, 1047 cases and 1450 referents were included in the analysis. Exposure categories of job strain were formed from self reported questionnaire information. The results show that high demands and low decision latitude interact with a synergy index of 7.5 (95% C.I.: 1.8-30.6) providing empirical support for the core mechanism of the job strain model. Manual workers are more susceptible when exposed to job strain and its components and this increased susceptibility explains about 25-50% of the relative excess risk among manual workers. Low decision latitude may also, as a causal link, explain about 30% of the socioeconomic difference in risk of myocardial infarction. The distinction between the interaction and the causal link mechanisms identifies new etiologic questions and intervention alternatives. The specific causes of the increased susceptibility among manual workers to job strain and its components seem to be an interesting and important research question.

  18. Constellations of New Demands Concerning Careers and Jobs: Results from a Two-Country Study on Social and Economic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obschonka, Martin; Silbereisen, Rainer K.; Wasilewski, Jacek

    2012-01-01

    Focusing on new demands posed by social and economic change, and applying a pattern-based approach, this study examined constellations of increasing labor market uncertainties (understood as threat) and increasing job-related learning tasks (understood as positive challenge). We investigated whether and how the groups of working individuals behind…

  19. Information Demand Pattern for Teams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Stamer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Modern organizations face the challenge of having to manage an increasing amount of information. The resulting information overload leads more and more to problems in decision making with potentially negative economic consequences. Decision-makers and knowledge intensive workers are especially affected. To address this problem, information demand patterns were proposed which capture organizational knowledge about the information demand of single roles. This work extends the concept of information demand patterns from single roles to teams. Using the knowledge intensive field of project management, the paper shows how to apply the concept of information demand patterns for a whole team. The contributions of this work are (1 the methodical approach to develop information demand patterns for teams, (2 an actual information demand pattern for a steering committee in the context of project management, (3 reflections on the differences between role patterns and team patterns.

  20. Oilsands for the USA : while environmental groups ask for a shutdown, new study shows significant resulting economic benefits in America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, D.L.

    2010-02-15

    The United States is beginning to appreciate the value of having massive oil sands resources located in relatively close proximity to their northern border. This article discussed a recent study conducted by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) to assess the impact of Canada's oil sands development on the economy of the United States. The study forecasted that the demand for oil sands-related goods and services from American companies will continue to increase as the industry expands. The top national-level goods and services impacts will be derived from increases in manufacturing; finance; insurance; real estate; and professional, scientific, and technical services. Accommodation and food services in the United States will also benefit from the growth of the oil sands industry. The United States may not risk pushing ahead with strict carbon-cutting legislation targeting the oil sands when policy-makers consider the potential impacts of Canada selling its resources to China. 1 fig.

  1. Demand, Energy, and Power Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-08-01

    demand, but first, let’s talk some more about why electrical demand charges occur. Electric Load Leveling: 5 ** show flip chart of daily utility load (see...and cost savings for energy are available as a result of lowering demand. 3 ’~ show flip chart of block structure (see copy at end of script) Shown... flip chart (see copy at end of script) This is a graphical representation of real, apparent and reactive power in3 an AC circuit. Real power is the power

  2. Energy Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E. et al.

    2014-01-01

    Key policy issues – How will energy demand evolve particularly in emerging and medium- and low- income economies? – What is the mix of end-use energy carriers to meet future energy demand? – How can energy efficiency contribute to reducing the growth rate of energy demand and mitigate pressures on t

  3. Integrated analysis of the demand for and supply of geospatial education and training : Results of the GI-N2K Surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rip, F.I.; Wallentin, G.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.

    2014-01-01

    This report describes the situation in 2014 with regard to the demand for and the supply of education and training in the domain of geographic information (“GI”). It is the outcome of an analysis of the results of two simultaneous internet surveys, directed at two target groups in 25 European countr

  4. Operating costs and energy demand of wastewater treatment plants in Austria: benchmarking results of the last 10 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslinger, J; Lindtner, S; Krampe, J

    2016-12-01

    This work presents operating costs and energy consumption of Austrian municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) (≥10,000 PE-design capacity) that have been classified into different size groups. Different processes as well as cost elements are investigated and processes with high relevance regarding operating costs and energy consumption are identified. Furthermore, the work shows the cost-relevance of six investigated cost elements. The analysis demonstrates the size-dependency of operating costs and energy consumption. For the examination of the energy consumption the investigated WWTPs were further classified into WWTPs with aerobic sludge stabilisation and WWTPs with mesophilic sludge digestion. The work proves that energy consumption depends mainly on the type of sludge stabilisation. The results of the investigation can help to determine reduction potential in operating costs and energy consumption of WWTPs and form a basis for more detailed analysis which helps to identify cost and energy saving potential.

  5. Is the supply of continuing education in the anatomical sciences keeping up with the demand? Results of a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Adam B; Barger, J Bradley; Perez, Patricia; Brooks, William S

    2017-09-14

    Continuing education (CE) is an essential element in the life-long learning of health care providers and educators. Despite the importance of the anatomical sciences in the training and practice of clinicians, no studies have examined the need/state of anatomy-related CE nationally. This study assessed the current landscape of CE in the anatomical sciences to contextualize preferences for CE, identify factors that influence the perceived need for CE, and examine the association between supply and demand. Surveys were distributed to educators in the anatomical sciences, practicing physical therapists (PTs), and anatomy training programs across the United States. Twenty-five percent (9 of 36) of training programs surveyed offered CE, certificates, or summer series programs related to anatomy. The majority of PTs (92%) and anatomy educators (81%) felt they had a potential or actual need for anatomy related CE with the most popular formats being online videos/learning modules and intensive, hands-on workshops. The most commonly perceived barriers to participating in CE for both groups were program location, cost, and duration, while educators also perceived time of year as a significant factor. Logistic regression analyses revealed that no investigated factor influenced the need or desire for PTs to engage in anatomy related CE (P ≤ 0.124), while teaching experience and the highest level of learner taught significantly influenced the perceived need among anatomy educators (P Anat Sci Educ. © 2017 American Association of Anatomists. © 2017 American Association of Anatomists.

  6. Migration and Tourism Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This study considers the relationship between immigration and Portuguese tourism demand for the period 1995-2008, using a dynamic panel data approach. The findings indicate that Portuguese tourism increased significantly during the period in accordance with the values expected for a developed country. The regression results show that income, shock of immigration, population, and geographical distance between Portugal and countries of origin are the main determinants of Portuguese tourism.

  7. Reception of Talent Shows in Denmark: First Results from a Trans-National Audience Study of a Global Format Genre

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pia Majbritt

    This paper will discuss the methodology and present the preliminary findings of the Danish part of a trans-national, comparative audience study of the musical talent show genre undertaken in Denmark, Finland, Germany and Great Britain in Spring 2013. Within the international business model...... of format adaptation, the musical talent show genre has been particularly successful in crossing cultural borders. Formats such as Idols, X Factor and Voice have sold to a large variety of countries, covering all continents. Such global reach inevitably raises the question of the genre’s audience appeal...... that television formats to a considerable degree are adapted according to national audiences and, hence, national cultural tastes. And in our research approach, we do recognize that musical talent shows appear to contribute to ‘imagining the nation’ (Anderson 1983), often even mentioning the nation in the title...

  8. Reception of Talent Shows in Denmark: First Results from a Trans-National Audience Study of a Global Format Genre

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pia Majbritt

    of format adaptation, the musical talent show genre has been particularly successful in crossing cultural borders. Formats such as Idols, X Factor and Voice have sold to a large variety of countries, covering all continents. Such global reach inevitably raises the question of the genre’s audience appeal......This paper will discuss the methodology and present the preliminary findings of the Danish part of a trans-national, comparative audience study of the musical talent show genre undertaken in Denmark, Finland, Germany and Great Britain in Spring 2013. Within the international business model...... that television formats to a considerable degree are adapted according to national audiences and, hence, national cultural tastes. And in our research approach, we do recognize that musical talent shows appear to contribute to ‘imagining the nation’ (Anderson 1983), often even mentioning the nation in the title...

  9. Transgenic plants expressing HC-Pro show enhanced virus sensitivity while silencing of the transgene results in resistance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mlotshwa, S.; Verver, J.; Sithole-Niang, I.; Prins, M.; Kammen, van A.; Wellink, J.

    2002-01-01

    Nicotiana benthamiana plants were engineered to express sequences of the helper component-proteinase (HC-Pro) of Cowpea aphid-borne mosaic potyvirus (CABMV). The sensitivity of the transgenic plants to infection with parental and heterologous viruses was studied. The lines expressing HC-Pro showed

  10. Assessing the utility of a demand assessment for functional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roscoe, Eileen M; Rooker, Griffin W; Pence, Sacha T; Longworth, Lynlea J

    2009-01-01

    We evaluated the utility of an assessment for identifying tasks for the functional analysis demand condition with 4 individuals who had been diagnosed with autism. During the demand assessment, a therapist presented a variety of tasks, and observers measured problem behavior and compliance to identify demands associated with low levels of compliance or high levels of problem behavior (low-probability demands) and demands associated with high levels of compliance or low levels of problem behavior (high-probability demands). Results showed that clearer functional analysis outcomes were obtained for 3 of the 4 participants when low-probability rather than high-probability demands were used.

  11. Early Results Show Reduced Infection Rate Using No-touch Technique for Expander/ADM Breast Reconstruction

    OpenAIRE

    Henry B. Wilson, MD, FACS

    2015-01-01

    Summary: Infection is a common complication of immediate breast reconstruction that often leads to device removal, a result emotionally devastating to the patient and frustrating for her surgeon. “No-touch” techniques have been used in other surgical disciplines and plastic surgery, but they have not been reported for breast reconstruction with tissue expanders or implants and acellular dermis. We report a novel technique of tissue expander and acellular dermis placement using no-touch princi...

  12. Early Results Show Reduced Infection Rate Using No-touch Technique for Expander/ADM Breast Reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry B. Wilson, MD, FACS

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Infection is a common complication of immediate breast reconstruction that often leads to device removal, a result emotionally devastating to the patient and frustrating for her surgeon. “No-touch” techniques have been used in other surgical disciplines and plastic surgery, but they have not been reported for breast reconstruction with tissue expanders or implants and acellular dermis. We report a novel technique of tissue expander and acellular dermis placement using no-touch principles with a self-retaining retractor system that holds promise to decrease infectious complications of breast reconstruction.

  13. Demands of immigration among Chinese immigrant nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Amy X; Griffin, Mary T Quinn; Capitulo, Katie L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify the demands of immigration among Chinese nurses that have immigrated to the USA. The relationship between the demands of immigration and length of stay in the USA was investigated also. A descriptive correlational study design was used. A convenience sample of 128 nurses was recruited. A self-administered survey was conducted using the demands of immigration scale developed by Aroian, along with a demographic questionnaire. The results showed Chinese immigrant nurses have high demands of immigration. There were significant negative relationships between the demands of immigration and length of stay in the USA. Immigration demands decreased as length of stay increased but remained high even for those who had been in the USA for > 5 years. This information is vital to health-care agencies designing and implementing adaptation programmes targeting these demands to facilitate Chinese nurses' adaptation process.

  14. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  15. Selection Indices and Multivariate Analysis Show Similar Results in the Evaluation of Growth and Carcass Traits in Beef Cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito Lopes, Fernando; da Silva, Marcelo Corrêa; Magnabosco, Cláudio Ulhôa; Goncalves Narciso, Marcelo; Sainz, Roberto Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This research evaluated a multivariate approach as an alternative tool for the purpose of selection regarding expected progeny differences (EPDs). Data were fitted using a multi-trait model and consisted of growth traits (birth weight and weights at 120, 210, 365 and 450 days of age) and carcass traits (longissimus muscle area (LMA), back-fat thickness (BF), and rump fat thickness (RF)), registered over 21 years in extensive breeding systems of Polled Nellore cattle in Brazil. Multivariate analyses were performed using standardized (zero mean and unit variance) EPDs. The k mean method revealed that the best fit of data occurred using three clusters (k = 3) (P multivariate index (LD1) were moderate to high, ranging from 0.48 to 0.97. This reveals that both types of indices give similar results and that the multivariate approach is reliable for the purpose of selection. The alternative tool seems very handy when economic weights are not available or in cases where more rapid identification of the best animals is desired. Interestingly, multivariate analysis allowed forecasting information based on the relationships among breeding values (EPDs). Also, it enabled fine discrimination, rapid data summarization after genetic evaluation, and permitted accounting for maternal ability and the genetic direct potential of the animals. In addition, we recommend the use of longissimus muscle area and subcutaneous fat thickness as selection criteria, to allow estimation of breeding values before the first mating season in order to accelerate the response to individual selection.

  16. Low-frequency ac electroporation shows strong frequency dependence and yields comparable transfection results to dc electroporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yihong; Cao, Zhenning; Bao, Ning; Li, Jianbo; Wang, Jun; Geng, Tao; Lin, Hao; Lu, Chang

    2012-06-28

    Conventional electroporation has been conducted by employing short direct current (dc) pulses for delivery of macromolecules such as DNA into cells. The use of alternating current (ac) field for electroporation has mostly been explored in the frequency range of 10kHz-1MHz. Based on Schwan equation, it was thought that with low ac frequencies (10Hz-10kHz), the transmembrane potential does not vary with the frequency. In this report, we utilized a flow-through electroporation technique that employed continuous 10Hz-10kHz ac field (based on either sine waves or square waves) for electroporation of cells with defined duration and intensity. Our results reveal that electropermeabilization becomes weaker with increased frequency in this range. In contrast, transfection efficiency with DNA reaches its maximum at medium frequencies (100-1000Hz) in the range. We postulate that the relationship between the transfection efficiency and the ac frequency is determined by combined effects from electrophoretic movement of DNA in the ac field, dependence of the DNA/membrane interaction on the ac frequency, and variation of transfection under different electropermeabilization intensities. The fact that ac electroporation in this frequency range yields high efficiency for transfection (up to ~71% for Chinese hamster ovary cells) and permeabilization suggests its potential for gene delivery.

  17. Selection Indices and Multivariate Analysis Show Similar Results in the Evaluation of Growth and Carcass Traits in Beef Cattle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Brito Lopes

    Full Text Available This research evaluated a multivariate approach as an alternative tool for the purpose of selection regarding expected progeny differences (EPDs. Data were fitted using a multi-trait model and consisted of growth traits (birth weight and weights at 120, 210, 365 and 450 days of age and carcass traits (longissimus muscle area (LMA, back-fat thickness (BF, and rump fat thickness (RF, registered over 21 years in extensive breeding systems of Polled Nellore cattle in Brazil. Multivariate analyses were performed using standardized (zero mean and unit variance EPDs. The k mean method revealed that the best fit of data occurred using three clusters (k = 3 (P < 0.001. Estimates of genetic correlation among growth and carcass traits and the estimates of heritability were moderate to high, suggesting that a correlated response approach is suitable for practical decision making. Estimates of correlation between selection indices and the multivariate index (LD1 were moderate to high, ranging from 0.48 to 0.97. This reveals that both types of indices give similar results and that the multivariate approach is reliable for the purpose of selection. The alternative tool seems very handy when economic weights are not available or in cases where more rapid identification of the best animals is desired. Interestingly, multivariate analysis allowed forecasting information based on the relationships among breeding values (EPDs. Also, it enabled fine discrimination, rapid data summarization after genetic evaluation, and permitted accounting for maternal ability and the genetic direct potential of the animals. In addition, we recommend the use of longissimus muscle area and subcutaneous fat thickness as selection criteria, to allow estimation of breeding values before the first mating season in order to accelerate the response to individual selection.

  18. Climate Change and Increased Irrigation Demands: What Is Left for Hydropower Generation? Results from Two Semi-Arid Basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor Haakon Bakken

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we have modelled the effect of climate change and increased irrigation withdrawals on the available water for hydropower production in two semi-arid river basins, i.e., Kizilirmak (Turkey and Devoll (Albania, and the role of the reservoirs. The combined effect of climate change and extended irrigation withdrawals will overall lead to reduced runoff in the rivers, according to our simulations. The changes will be most dramatic at Kizilirmak, reducing the water available for hydropower production. The presence of the reservoirs will lead to extended water use/losses due to the provision of regulated flow, enabling larger irrigation withdrawals and increasing the evaporative losses from the reservoir surfaces. Comparing the water consumption losses at Kizilirmak, the irrigation losses are in the range of 2–4 times larger than the gross evaporation losses from reservoir surfaces. The reservoirs at Devoll will improve water availability for hydropower production during low flow periods, and the upstream irrigation represents presently a low risk to the downstream power producers. As the results are sensitive to specific river basin characteristics and the assumptions made, the results cannot be generalized to other river basins without taking these specifics into consideration.

  19. Getting carried away: a note showing baseline observation carried forward (BOCF) results can be calculated from published complete-cases results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, K A; Affuso, O; Beasley, T M; Allison, D B

    2012-06-01

    Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in obesity are plagued by missing data due to participant dropouts. Most methodologists and regulatory bodies agree that the primary analysis of such RCTs should be based on the intent-to-treat (ITT) principle, such that all randomized subjects are included in the analysis, even those who dropped out. Unfortunately, some authors do not include an ITT analysis in their published reports. Here we show that one form of ITT analysis, baseline observation carried forward (BOCF), can be performed utilizing only information available in a published complete-case (CC) analysis, permitting readers, editors, meta-analysts and regulators to easily conduct their own ITT analyses when the original authors do not report one. We mathematically derive a simple method for estimating and testing treatment effects using the BOCF to allow a more conservative comparison of treatment effects when there are dropouts in a clinical trial. We provide two examples of this method using available CC analysis data from reported obesity trials to illustrate the application for readers who wish to determine a range of treatment effects based on published summary statistics. Commonly used CC analyses may lead to inflated type I error rates and/or treatment effect estimates. The method described herein can be useful for researchers who wish to estimate a conservative range of plausible treatment effects based on limited reported data. Limitations of this method are discussed.

  20. Demanding Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguntoyinbo, Lekan

    2010-01-01

    It was the kind of crisis most universities dread. In November 2006, a group of minority student leaders at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) threatened to sue the university if administrators did not heed demands that included providing more funding for multicultural student groups. This article discusses how this threat…

  1. Paramedic Physical Demands Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    medical bags, cardiac monitor, stretcher, stair chair, etc.) were not standardized across services. As a result the total amount of equipment weight ...report describes the pushing/pulling, walking, and stair climbing demands as observed during the observation periods. Walking demands varied between the...standard deviation about the mean. .................................................................. 25 Figure 7 - The maximum weight (heaviest patient

  2. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari;

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on causality in demand. A methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co-integrated demand model, not prespecified, is suggested. The methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system. The methodology is applied...... to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...... implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information. The results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large European whitefish market, where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market. Redfish is a substitute on both markets...

  3. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... the high rate of exit seen in the first years of exporting. Finally, when faced with multiple countries in which to export, some firms will choose to sequentially export in order to slowly learn more about its chances for success in untested markets....

  4. Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

  5. Household fuel demand analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohn, S.; Hirst, E.; Jackson, J.

    1976-01-01

    This study develops econometric models of residential demands for electricity, natural gas, and petroleum products. Fuel demands per household are estimated as functions of fuel prices, per capita income, heating degree days, and mean July temperature. Cross-sectional models are developed using a large data base containing observations for each state and year from 1951 through 1974. Long-run own-price elasticities for all three fuels are greater than unity with natural gas showing the greatest sensitivity to own-price changes. Cross-price elasticities are all less than unity except for the elasticity of demand for oil with respect to the price of gas (which is even larger than the own-price elasticity of demand for oil). The models show considerable stabiity with respect to own-price elasticities but much instability with respect to the cross-price and income elasticities.

  6. Physical demands in worklife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrand, I

    1988-01-01

    Industrial occupations which are physically strenuous in the traditional sense of the word have decreased in number. They have partly been replaced by "light," repetitive, monotonous work tasks performed in a sitting position. The number of heavy work tasks within the service sector has increased. Specialization has been intensified. The individual's capacity for strenuous work is still of importance to successful work performance. Many studies show that an optional choice of work pace in physically demanding occupational work results in an adaptation of pace or intensity until the worker is utilizing 40-50% of her or his capacity. When the work rate is constrained, the relative strain of the individual varies inversely with the physical work capacity. The frequency of musculoskeletal disorders has concurrently increased with the implementation of industrial mechanization. New, wise, ergonomic moves are needed to stop this development.

  7. Show Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    <正> Story: Show Time!The whole class presents the story"Under the Sea".Everyone is so excited and happy.Both Leo and Kathy show their parentsthe characters of the play."Who’s he?"asks Kathy’s mom."He’s the prince."Kathy replies."Who’s she?"asks Leo’s dad."She’s the queen."Leo replieswith a smile.

  8. Snobbish Show

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN PUMIN

    2010-01-01

    @@ The State Administration of Radio,Film and Television (SARFT),China's media watchdog,issued a new set of mles on June 9 that strictly regulate TV match-making shows,which have been sweeping the country's primetime programming. "Improper social and love values such as money worship should not be presented in these shows.Humiliation,verbal attacks and sex-implied vulgar content are not allowed" the new roles said.

  9. Characteristics and trends of China's oil demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Haibo

    2010-09-15

    Based on historical analysis of Chinese oil consumption from 1980 to 2008, the author develops an econometric modeling - Medium and Long-term Chinese Oil Demand Forecast Model. Results shows that, Chinese oil demand will be 632 MT in 2020 without consideration of substitutions, and the annual growth rate will be 4.2%, much slower than before. The demand ratio of diesel to gasoline will decline, while kerosene demand will grow faster. If new energy vehicles (NGV and electric vehicles, etc.) develop rapidly and industrial fuel-oil demand is substituted effectively, about 23 million tons of oil could be saved.

  10. The demand for dairy products in Malawi

    OpenAIRE

    Akaichi, Faiçal; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a multi-stage almost ideal demand system with censoring was estimated to assess Malawians’ demand for six dairy products (viz. fresh milk, powdered milk, margarine and butter, chambiko, yogurt and cheese). We found that the consumption of dairy products depended on whether the household was rural or urban, the region of the country (viz. North, Centre, South) and the household poverty status. The results also show that the demand for fresh and powdered milk, butter and margari...

  11. EROBATIC SHOW

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2016-01-01

    Visitors look at plane models of the Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China, developer of the count,s first homegrown large passenger jet C919, during the Singapore Airshow on February 16. The biennial event is the largest airshow in Asia and one of the most important aviation and defense shows worldwide. A number of Chinese companies took part in the event during which Okay Airways, the first privately owned aidine in China, signed a deal to acquire 12 Boeing 737 jets.

  12. Minimum Energy Demand Locomotion on Space Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wing Kwong Chung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The energy of a space station is a precious resource, and the minimization of energy consumption of a space manipulator is crucial to maintain its normal functionalities. This paper first presents novel gaits for space manipulators by equipping a new gripping mechanism. With the use of wheels locomotion, lower energy demand gaits can be achieved. With the use of the proposed gaits, we further develop a global path planning algorithm for space manipulators which can plan a moving path on a space station with a minimum total energy demand. Different from existing approaches, we emphasize both the use of the proposed low energy demand gaits and the gaits composition during the path planning process. To evaluate the performance of the proposed gaits and path planning algorithm, numerous simulations are performed. Results show that the energy demand of both the proposed gaits and the resultant moving path is also minimum.

  13. ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTRUAL INFORMATION DEMAND --Case of Jilin Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hui-min; JIANG Hui-ming

    2005-01-01

    With the rapid development of agricultural informalization in the world, the demand of agricultural information has been a focus in the international agriculture and information fields. Based on the investigation, this paper presented the four characteristics of the demand of agricultural information in China, including regionality, seasonality, great potential demand and variation in kind and level. The factors influencing the demand of agricultural information were analyzed by the Optimized Less Square (OLS) method. The result shows that, of all factors influcing agricultural information demand, the most important one is economy, the second is facility of information pass,and knowledge and education of user, credit of agricultural information service system and production situation follow. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this article also elaborated the agricultural information demand status, and deduced the regression model of agricultural information demand and verified it by the survey in rural Jilin.

  14. Demand Modelling in Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chvalina

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models. 

  15. Demand forecasting and information platform in tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Jiang, Qi-Jie

    2017-05-01

    Information asymmetry and the bullwhip effect have been serious problems in the tourism supply chain. Based on platform theory, this paper established a mathematical model to explore the inner mechanism of a platform's influence on stakeholders' ability to forecast demand in tourism. Results showed that the variance of stakeholders' demand predictions with a platform was smaller than the variance without a platform, which meant that a platform would improve predictions of demand for stakeholders. The higher information-processing ability of the platform also had other effects on demand forecasting. Research on the inner logic of the platform's influence on stakeholders has important theoretical and realistic value. This area is worthy of further study.

  16. Analysis of conservative tracer measurement results using the Frechet distribution at planted horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands filled with coarse gravel and showing the effect of clogging processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittrich, Ernő; Klincsik, Mihály

    2015-11-01

    A mathematical process, developed in Maple environment, has been successful in decreasing the error of measurement results and in the precise calculation of the moments of corrected tracer functions. It was proved that with this process, the measured tracer results of horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands filled with coarse gravel (HSFCW-C) can be fitted more accurately than with the conventionally used distribution functions (Gaussian, Lognormal, Fick (Inverse Gaussian) and Gamma). This statement is true only for the planted HSFCW-Cs. The analysis of unplanted HSFCW-Cs needs more research. The result of the analysis shows that the conventional solutions (completely stirred series tank reactor (CSTR) model and convection-dispersion transport (CDT) model) cannot describe these types of transport processes with sufficient accuracy. These outcomes can help in developing better process descriptions of very difficult transport processes in HSFCW-Cs. Furthermore, a new mathematical process can be developed for the calculation of real hydraulic residence time (HRT) and dispersion coefficient values. The presented method can be generalized to other kinds of hydraulic environments.

  17. Transgene silencing of the Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome mutation results in a reversible bone phenotype, whereas resveratrol treatment does not show overall beneficial effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandgren, Charlotte; Nasser, Hasina Abdul; McKenna, Tomás

    2015-01-01

    Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS) is a rare premature aging disorder that is most commonly caused by a de novo point mutation in exon 11 of the LMNA gene, c.1824C>T, which results in an increased production of a truncated form of lamin A known as progerin. In this study, we used a mouse...... model to study the possibility of recovering from HGPS bone disease upon silencing of the HGPS mutation, and the potential benefits from treatment with resveratrol. We show that complete silencing of the transgenic expression of progerin normalized bone morphology and mineralization already after 7...... weeks. The improvements included lower frequencies of rib fractures and callus formation, an increased number of osteocytes in remodeled bone, and normalized dentinogenesis. The beneficial effects from resveratrol treatment were less significant and to a large extent similar to mice treated with sucrose...

  18. Simple instruments used in monitoring ionospheric perturbations and some observational results showing the ionospheric responses to the perturbations mainly from the lower atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Zuo; Hao, Yongqiang; Zhang, Donghe; Xiao, Sai-Guan; Huang, Weiquan

    Ionospheric disturbances such as SID and acoustic gravity waves in different scales are well known and commonly discussed topics. Some simple ground equipment was designed and used for monitoring continuously the effects of these disturbances, especially, SWF, SFD. Besides SIDs, They also reflect clearly the acoustic gravity waves in different scale and Spread-F and these data are important supplementary to the traditional ionosonde records. It is of signifi-cance in understanding physical essentials of the ionospheric disturbances and applications in SID warning. In this paper, the designing of the instruments is given and results are discussed in detail. Some case studies were introduced as example which showed very clearly not only immediate effects of solar flare, but also the phenomena of ionospheric responses to large scale gravity waves from lower atmosphere such as typhoon, great earthquake and volcano erup-tion. Particularlyresults showed that acoustic gravity waves play significant role in seeding ionospheric Spread-F. These examples give evidence that lower atmospheric activities strongly influence the ionosphere.

  19. Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Carl R.

    2009-01-01

    Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

  20. Transgene silencing of the Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome mutation results in a reversible bone phenotype, whereas resveratrol treatment does not show overall beneficial effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandgren, Charlotte; Nasser, Hasina Abdul; McKenna, Tomás; Koskela, Antti; Tuukkanen, Juha; Ohlsson, Claes; Rozell, Björn; Eriksson, Maria

    2015-08-01

    Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS) is a rare premature aging disorder that is most commonly caused by a de novo point mutation in exon 11 of the LMNA gene, c.1824C>T, which results in an increased production of a truncated form of lamin A known as progerin. In this study, we used a mouse model to study the possibility of recovering from HGPS bone disease upon silencing of the HGPS mutation, and the potential benefits from treatment with resveratrol. We show that complete silencing of the transgenic expression of progerin normalized bone morphology and mineralization already after 7 weeks. The improvements included lower frequencies of rib fractures and callus formation, an increased number of osteocytes in remodeled bone, and normalized dentinogenesis. The beneficial effects from resveratrol treatment were less significant and to a large extent similar to mice treated with sucrose alone. However, the reversal of the dental phenotype of overgrown and laterally displaced lower incisors in HGPS mice could be attributed to resveratrol. Our results indicate that the HGPS bone defects were reversible upon suppressed transgenic expression and suggest that treatments targeting aberrant progerin splicing give hope to patients who are affected by HGPS.

  1. Estimating the Demand for Wine Using Instrumental Variable Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Cuellar, Steven; Huffman, Ryan

    2008-01-01

    The demand for wine is generally estimated on an aggregate level as a single commodity. However, as recent history shows us, the demand for wine not only varies considerably by varietal, but also by price point within each varietal. As a result, although estimates of the demand for wine may be beneficial to the wine industry as a whole, they provide little benefit to individual wine producers. This paper seeks to overcome the limitations of prior research on the demand for wine by providing e...

  2. Monopoly price discrimination with constant elasticity demand

    OpenAIRE

    Aguirre Pérez, Iñaki; Cowan, Simon George

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new results on the welfare e¤ects of third-degree price discrimination under constant elasticity demand. We show that when both the share of the strong market under uniform pricing and the elasticity di¤erence between markets are high enough,then price discrimination not only can increase social welfare but also consumer surplus.

  3. Monopoly price discrimination with constant elasticity demand

    OpenAIRE

    Aguirre Pérez, Iñaki; Cowan, Simon George

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new results on the welfare e¤ects of third-degree price discrimination under constant elasticity demand. We show that when both the share of the strong market under uniform pricing and the elasticity di¤erence between markets are high enough,then price discrimination not only can increase social welfare but also consumer surplus.

  4. Demand surge following earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anna H.

    2012-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

  5. Rapamycin and chloroquine: the in vitro and in vivo effects of autophagy-modifying drugs show promising results in valosin containing protein multisystem proteinopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angèle Nalbandian

    Full Text Available Mutations in the valosin containing protein (VCP gene cause hereditary Inclusion body myopathy (hIBM associated with Paget disease of bone (PDB, frontotemporal dementia (FTD, more recently termed multisystem proteinopathy (MSP. Affected individuals exhibit scapular winging and die from progressive muscle weakness, and cardiac and respiratory failure, typically in their 40s to 50s. Histologically, patients show the presence of rimmed vacuoles and TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43-positive large ubiquitinated inclusion bodies in the muscles. We have generated a VCPR155H/+ mouse model which recapitulates the disease phenotype and impaired autophagy typically observed in patients with VCP disease. Autophagy-modifying agents, such as rapamycin and chloroquine, at pharmacological doses have previously shown to alter the autophagic flux. Herein, we report results of administration of rapamycin, a specific inhibitor of the mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR signaling pathway, and chloroquine, a lysosomal inhibitor which reverses autophagy by accumulating in lysosomes, responsible for blocking autophagy in 20-month old VCPR155H/+ mice. Rapamycin-treated mice demonstrated significant improvement in muscle performance, quadriceps histological analysis, and rescue of ubiquitin, and TDP-43 pathology and defective autophagy as indicated by decreased protein expression levels of LC3-I/II, p62/SQSTM1, optineurin and inhibiting the mTORC1 substrates. Conversely, chloroquine-treated VCPR155H/+ mice revealed progressive muscle weakness, cytoplasmic accumulation of TDP-43, ubiquitin-positive inclusion bodies and increased LC3-I/II, p62/SQSTM1, and optineurin expression levels. Our in vitro patient myoblasts studies treated with rapamycin demonstrated an overall improvement in the autophagy markers. Targeting the mTOR pathway ameliorates an increasing list of disorders, and these findings suggest that VCP disease and related neurodegenerative multisystem

  6. Demand Forecasting Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James

    2005-01-01

    Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand fore...

  7. A Successfully Treated Case of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor Causing Severe Anemia and Localized Peritonitis Showing Angina Pectoris Resulting in Watershed Cerebral Infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshihide Sehara

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ischemic stroke following acute myocardial infarction is a rare but a serious complication. Because the pathophysiology of stroke is dynamic, it is often hard to identify the cause of stroke. Here, we present the case of a 75-year-old man with ischemic stroke following angina pectoris caused by severe anemia and localized peritonitis due to gastrointestinal stromal tumor of small intestine. On admission, he showed consciousness disturbance, fever, and left hemiplegia. The electrocardiogram on admission showed ST-segment depression in V2 to V6 which was normalized 4 hours later. The ultrasound cardiogram showed the mild hypokinesis in the apical portion of left ventricle which was also normalized later. The magnetic resonance imaging and angiography showed ischemic stroke in watershed area between right anterior and middle cerebral arteries area and stenosis of distal portion of right middle cerebral artery. The computed tomography of abdomen showed a mass of small intestine. We decided to perform curative surgery after transfusion and successfully resected the mass of the small intestine, which was revealed to be a gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST. This is a successfully treated case of GIST in which the complicated pathophysiology of watershed cerebral infarction following angina pectoris might be clearly revealed.

  8. Supply Chain Coordination with Demand Disruptions under Convex Production Cost Function

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ming-hui; GAO Cheng-xiu

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the problem of how to handling demand disruptions in a one-supplier-one-retailer supply chain, where production cost is a convex function of production quantity andprice-demand relationship is linear. Our results show that, if demand is disrupted, under the new price-demand relationship, all-unit wholesale quantity discount policies combining capacitated linear pricingpolicies can also fully coordinate the supply chain.

  9. Storytelling Slide Shows to Improve Diabetes and High Blood Pressure Knowledge and Self-Efficacy: Three-Year Results among Community Dwelling Older African Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertera, Elizabeth M.

    2014-01-01

    This study combined the African American tradition of oral storytelling with the Hispanic medium of "Fotonovelas." A staggered pretest posttest control group design was used to evaluate four Storytelling Slide Shows on health that featured community members. A total of 212 participants were recruited for the intervention and 217 for the…

  10. Storytelling Slide Shows to Improve Diabetes and High Blood Pressure Knowledge and Self-Efficacy: Three-Year Results among Community Dwelling Older African Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertera, Elizabeth M.

    2014-01-01

    This study combined the African American tradition of oral storytelling with the Hispanic medium of "Fotonovelas." A staggered pretest posttest control group design was used to evaluate four Storytelling Slide Shows on health that featured community members. A total of 212 participants were recruited for the intervention and 217 for the…

  11. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  12. Automated Demand Response and Commissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, David S.; Motegi, Naoya; Bourassa, Norman

    2005-04-01

    This paper describes the results from the second season of research to develop and evaluate the performance of new Automated Demand Response (Auto-DR) hardware and software technology in large facilities. Demand Response (DR) is a set of activities to reduce or shift electricity use to improve the electric grid reliability and manage electricity costs. Fully-Automated Demand Response does not involve human intervention, but is initiated at a home, building, or facility through receipt of an external communications signal. We refer to this as Auto-DR. The evaluation of the control and communications must be properly configured and pass through a set of test stages: Readiness, Approval, Price Client/Price Server Communication, Internet Gateway/Internet Relay Communication, Control of Equipment, and DR Shed Effectiveness. New commissioning tests are needed for such systems to improve connecting demand responsive building systems to the electric grid demand response systems.

  13. Results of field testing with the multisensor DEMAND and BIOSENS technologies in Croatia and Bosnia developed in the European Union's 5th framework program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, Stephen; Sachs, Juergen; Peyerl, Peter; Alli, Giovanni; Eng, Lars; Khalili, Mehrdad; Busto, Javier; Berg, Anders

    2004-09-01

    This paper presents the development results for three sensor technologies: metal detector (MD) array, ultrawideband (UWB) ground penetrating radar (GPR) array and biosensor sample collection and analysis system. It provides results on explosives findings for demining and demonstrates how the false alarm rate (FAR) of the MD may be reduced while maintaining high probability of detection (PD) through a data fusion (DF) system. The relevance of the results to demining and homeland security is also provided.

  14. Randomised control trial showed that delayed cord clamping and milking resulted in no significant differences in iron stores and physical growth parameters at one year of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Shivam; Jaiswal, Vijay; Singh, Dharamveer; Jaiswal, Prateek; Garg, Amit; Upadhyay, Amit

    2016-11-01

    Placental redistribution has been shown to improve haematological outcomes in the immediate neonatal period and early infancy. This study compared the effects of delayed cord clamping (DCC) and umbilical cord milking (UCM) on haematological and growth parameters at 12 months of age. This was a follow-up study of a randomised control trial, conducted in a tertiary care paediatric centre from August 2013 to August 2014. We studied 200 apparently healthy Indian infants randomised at birth to receive DCC for 60-90 seconds or UCM. The outcome measures were iron status and physical growth parameters at 12 months. Of the 200 babies, 161 completed the follow-up and baseline characteristics were comparable in both groups. The mean haemoglobin in the DCC group (102.2 (17.2) g/L and serum ferritin 16.44 (2.77) μg/L) showed no significant differences to the UCM group (98.6 (17.1) g/L and 18.2 (2.8) μg/L) at one year. In addition, there were no significant differences in weight, height and mid-upper arm circumference in the two groups. Term-born Indian infants who had DCC at 60-90 seconds or UCM showed no significant differences in ferritin and haemoglobin levels and growth parameters at 12 months of age. ©2016 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Probabilistic Quantification of Potentially Flexible Residential Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2014-01-01

    of residential consumers. The procedure is based on non-flexible consumer clustering and subsequent statistical analysis. Consequently, the power consumption pattern of a flexible consumer is compared to a 3D probability distribution created by the previously referred methodology. The results show a strong......The balancing of power systems with high penetration of renewable energy is a serious challenge to be faced in the near future. One of the possible solutions, recently capturing a lot of attention, is demand response. Demand response can only be achieved by power consumers holding loads which allow...... them to modify their normal power consumption pattern, namely flexible consumers. However flexibility, despite being constantly mentioned, is usually not properly defined and even rarer quantified. This manuscript introduces a methodology to identify and quantify potentially flexible demand...

  16. Demand for general practitioner and internist services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzick, D S

    1978-01-01

    Demand equations for general-practitioner and internist visits were estimated from 1970 CHAS-NORC survey data on health-service utilization and expenditure. Because a large proportion of respondents reported zero visits, observations were grouped according to cross-classified independent variables and regression analyses were performed using group means as data. The results showed significant differences between demand equations for general-practitioner visits and those for internist visits. Of potential importance was an apparent substitution of internists for general practitioners as ability to pay (income or insurance coverage) increased. Own-price elasticities were low for both general practitioners and internists but were even lower for the latter (0.1 to 0.02) than the former (0.2 to 0.3). The demand for services of the two specialties also differed with respect to disability days, age, sex, residence, and race. PMID:738894

  17. Wireless Demand Response Controls for HVAC Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Federspiel, Clifford

    2009-06-30

    The objectives of this scoping study were to develop and test control software and wireless hardware that could enable closed-loop, zone-temperature-based demand response in buildings that have either pneumatic controls or legacy digital controls that cannot be used as part of a demand response automation system. We designed a SOAP client that is compatible with the Demand Response Automation Server (DRAS) being used by the IOUs in California for their CPP program, design the DR control software, investigated the use of cellular routers for connecting to the DRAS, and tested the wireless DR system with an emulator running a calibrated model of a working building. The results show that the wireless DR system can shed approximately 1.5 Watts per design CFM on the design day in a hot, inland climate in California while keeping temperatures within the limits of ASHRAE Standard 55: Thermal Environmental Conditions for Human Occupancy.

  18. Showing results? An analysis of the perceptions of internal and external stakeholders of the public performance communication by the Belgian and Dutch Railways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gelders, Dave; Galetzka, Mirjam; Verckens, Jan Pieter; Seydel, E.R.

    2008-01-01

    Information Quarterly, 15: 153–156). In Belgium and the Netherlands, one Performance measurement and communicating about it with the broader public is not self-evident if one looks at public services organizations (Hernon, 1998 P. Hernon, The government performance and results act. Government

  19. Showing results? An analysis of the perceptions of internal and external stakeholders of the public performance communication by the Belgian and Dutch Railways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gelders, Dave; Galetzka, Mirjam; Verckens, Jan Pieter; Seydel, Erwin

    2008-01-01

    Information Quarterly, 15: 153–156). In Belgium and the Netherlands, one Performance measurement and communicating about it with the broader public is not self-evident if one looks at public services organizations (Hernon, 1998 P. Hernon, The government performance and results act. Government Inform

  20. The relevance of external quality assessment for molecular testing for ALK positive non-small cell lung cancer: results from two pilot rounds show room for optimization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien Tembuyser

    Full Text Available Molecular profiling should be performed on all advanced non-small cell lung cancer with non-squamous histology to allow treatment selection. Currently, this should include EGFR mutation testing and testing for ALK rearrangements. ROS1 is another emerging target. ALK rearrangement status is a critical biomarker to predict response to tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as crizotinib. To promote high quality testing in non-small cell lung cancer, the European Society of Pathology has introduced an external quality assessment scheme. This article summarizes the results of the first two pilot rounds organized in 2012-2013.Tissue microarray slides consisting of cell-lines and resection specimens were distributed with the request for routine ALK testing using IHC or FISH. Participation in ALK FISH testing included the interpretation of four digital FISH images.Data from 173 different laboratories was obtained. Results demonstrate decreased error rates in the second round for both ALK FISH and ALK IHC, although the error rates were still high and the need for external quality assessment in laboratories performing ALK testing is evident. Error rates obtained by FISH were lower than by IHC. The lowest error rates were observed for the interpretation of digital FISH images.There was a large variety in FISH enumeration practices. Based on the results from this study, recommendations for the methodology, analysis, interpretation and result reporting were issued. External quality assessment is a crucial element to improve the quality of molecular testing.

  1. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  2. Wireless Mesh Network Routing Under Uncertain Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellons, Jonathan; Dai, Liang; Chang, Bin; Xue, Yuan

    Traffic routing plays a critical role in determining the performance of a wireless mesh network. Recent research results usually fall into two ends of the spectrum. On one end are the heuristic routing algorithms, which are highly adaptive to the dynamic environments of wireless networks yet lack the analytical properties of how well the network performs globally. On the other end are the optimal routing algorithms that are derived from the optimization problem formulation of mesh network routing. They can usually claim analytical properties such as resource use optimality and throughput fairness. However, traffic demand is usually implicitly assumed as static and known a priori in these problem formulations. In contrast, recent studies of wireless network traces show that the traffic demand, even being aggregated at access points, is highly dynamic and hard to estimate. Thus, to apply the optimization-based routing solution in practice, one must take into account the dynamic and uncertain nature of wireless traffic demand. There are two basic approaches to address the traffic uncertainty in optimal mesh network routing (1) predictive routing that infers the traffic demand with maximum possibility based in its history and optimizes the routing strategy based on the predicted traffic demand and (2) oblivious routing that considers all the possible traffic demands and selects the routing strategy where the worst-case network performance could be optimized. This chapter provides an overview of the optimal routing strategies for wireless mesh networks with a focus on the above two strategies that explicitly consider the traffic uncertainty. It also identifies the key factors that affect the performance of each routing strategy and provides guidelines towards the strategy selection in mesh network routing under uncertain traffic demands.

  3. Bank Credit and Aggregate Import Demand in Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Chimobi Omoke

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study reformulated the aggregate import demand for Nigeria by including a financial variable (bank credit into the traditional import demand function for the period 1970-2009. The Johansen Multivariate cointegration analysis was used to estimate the function. The result obtained from the study shows no evidence of the existence of cointegrating relations between bank credit and import demand. This shows that bank credit is found to be insufficient as a policy instrument for long term import demand in Nigeria. Thus, the financial variable should not be included in modelling the aggregate import demand for Nigeria.

  4. Mathematical modelling in Matlab of the experimental results shows the electrochemical potential difference - temperature of the WC coatings immersed in a NaCl solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benea, M. L.; Benea, O. D.

    2016-02-01

    The method used for purchasing the corrosion behaviour the WC coatings deposited by plasma spraying, on a martensitic stainless steel substrate consists in measuring the electrochemical potential of the coating, respectively that of the substrate, immersed in a NaCl solution as corrosive agent. The mathematical processing of the obtained experimental results in Matlab allowed us to make some correlations between the electrochemical potential of the coating and the solution temperature is very well described by some curves having equations obtained by interpolation order 4.

  5. Transitioning from preclinical to clinical chemopreventive assessments of lyophilized black raspberries: interim results show berries modulate markers of oxidative stress in Barrett's esophagus patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kresty, Laura A; Frankel, Wendy L; Hammond, Cynthia D; Baird, Maureen E; Mele, Jennifer M; Stoner, Gary D; Fromkes, John J

    2006-01-01

    Increased fruit and vegetable consumption is associated with decreased risk of a number of cancers of epithelial origin, including esophageal cancer. Dietary administration of lyophilized black raspberries (LBRs) has significantly inhibited chemically induced oral, esophageal, and colon carcinogenesis in animal models. Likewise, berry extracts added to cell cultures significantly inhibited cancer-associated processes. Positive results in preclinical studies have supported further investigation of berries and berry extracts in high-risk human cohorts, including patients with existing premalignancy or patients at risk for cancer recurrence. We are currently conducting a 6-mo chemopreventive pilot study administering 32 or 45 g (female and male, respectively) of LBRs to patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE), a premalignant esophageal condition in which the normal stratified squamous epithelium changes to a metaplastic columnar-lined epithelium. BE's importance lies in the fact that it confers a 30- to 40-fold increased risk for the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma, a rapidly increasing and extremely deadly malignancy. This is a report on interim findings from 10 patients. To date, the results support that daily consumption of LBRs promotes reductions in the urinary excretion of two markers of oxidative stress, 8-epi-prostaglandin F2alpha (8-Iso-PGF2) and, to a lesser more-variable extent, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), among patients with BE.

  6. The Use of Online Pre-Lab Assessments Compared with Written Pre-Lab Assignments Requiring Experimental Result Prediction Shows No Difference in Student Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica L. Suchman

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Exam performance was compared for students who hand wrote questions designed to prepare them for daily lab activities in a senior level virology laboratory course versus those who answered questions created to mirror the written questions on-line.  No significant difference was noted in exam scores on any of the three midterms, written final exam, nor the practical exam.  Neither was there a significant difference in the quality of the laboratory reports turned in as evidenced by similar average scores over four years.  These results indicate that using online pre-labs to prepare students for the laboratory sessions leads to equivalent learning as answering handwritten pre-lab assignments.  Online pre-labs significantly reduced the amount of grading without reducing student learning, allowing a reduction in the number of teaching assistants required per section.

  7. Cells exposed to a huntingtin fragment containing an expanded polyglutamine tract show no sign of ion channel formation: results arguing against the ion channel hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørremølle, Anne; Grunnet, Morten; Hasholt, Lis

    2003-01-01

    tract to form ion channels in two cell types. Whole cell current from Xenopus oocytes was recorded using two-electrode voltage-clamp technique, and whole cell current from CHO-K1 cells was recorded by patch-clamp technique. The fragment with an expanded polyglutamine sequence induced no change......Ion channels formed by expanded polyglutamine tracts have been proposed to play an important role in the pathological processes leading to neurodegeneration in Huntington's disease and other CAG repeat diseases. We tested the capacity of a huntingtin fragment containing an expanded polyglutamine...... in the currents recorded in any of the two expression systems, indicating no changes in ion channel activity. The results therefore argue against the proposed hypothesis of expanded polyglutamines forming ion channels....

  8. The costs of a big brain: extreme encephalization results in higher energetic demand and reduced hypoxia tolerance in weakly electric African fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhum, Kimberley V; Freiler, Megan K; Wang, Robert; Carlson, Bruce A

    2016-12-28

    A large brain can offer several cognitive advantages. However, brain tissue has an especially high metabolic rate. Thus, evolving an enlarged brain requires either a decrease in other energetic requirements, or an increase in overall energy consumption. Previous studies have found conflicting evidence for these hypotheses, leaving the metabolic costs and constraints in the evolution of increased encephalization unclear. Mormyrid electric fishes have extreme encephalization comparable to that of primates. Here, we show that brain size varies widely among mormyrid species, and that there is little evidence for a trade-off with organ size, but instead a correlation between brain size and resting oxygen consumption rate. Additionally, we show that increased brain size correlates with decreased hypoxia tolerance. Our data thus provide a non-mammalian example of extreme encephalization that is accommodated by an increase in overall energy consumption. Previous studies have found energetic trade-offs with variation in brain size in taxa that have not experienced extreme encephalization comparable with that of primates and mormyrids. Therefore, we suggest that energetic trade-offs can only explain the evolution of moderate increases in brain size, and that the energetic requirements of extreme encephalization may necessitate increased overall energy investment.

  9. Consumer demand and quality assurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...... an inventory of pork chain governance and quality management systems, also resulting from a pan-European study, and attempt to match types of chains to consumer segments, arguing that the type of quality demanded by the consumers has implications especially for the quality management system governing the chain...

  10. Value of Fused 18F-Choline-PET/MRI to Evaluate Prostate Cancer Relapse in Patients Showing Biochemical Recurrence after EBRT: Preliminary Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnoldo Piccardo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. We compared the accuracy of 18F-Choline-PET/MRI with that of multiparametric MRI (mMRI, 18F-Choline-PET/CT, 18F-Fluoride-PET/CT, and contrast-enhanced CT (CeCT in detecting relapse in patients with suspected relapse of prostate cancer (PC after external beam radiotherapy (EBRT. We assessed the association between standard uptake value (SUV and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC. Methods. We evaluated 21 patients with biochemical relapse after EBRT. Patients underwent 18F-Choline-PET/contrast-enhanced (CeCT, 18F-Fluoride-PET/CT, and mMRI. Imaging coregistration of PET and mMRI was performed. Results. 18F-Choline-PET/MRI was positive in 18/21 patients, with a detection rate (DR of 86%. DRs of 18F-Choline-PET/CT, CeCT, and mMRI were 76%, 43%, and 81%, respectively. In terms of DR the only significant difference was between 18F-Choline-PET/MRI and CeCT. On lesion-based analysis, the accuracy of 18F-Choline-PET/MRI, 18F-Choline-PET/CT, CeCT, and mMRI was 99%, 95%, 70%, and 85%, respectively. Accuracy, sensitivity, and NPV of 18F-Choline-PET/MRI were significantly higher than those of both mMRI and CeCT. On whole-body assessment of bone metastases, the sensitivity of 18F-Choline-PET/CT and 18F-Fluoride-PET/CT was significantly higher than that of CeCT. Regarding local and lymph node relapse, we found a significant inverse correlation between ADC and SUV-max. Conclusion. 18F-Choline-PET/MRI is a promising technique in detecting PC relapse.

  11. [Demands on professional nursing staff in institutions for dialysis from the view of male and female patients--the results of a survey by means of Critical Incident Technique].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuschenbach, Bernd; Mohr, Tina

    2005-04-01

    Contemporary models of competence in nursing are usually based on the questioning of nursing staff and therefore reflect their professional self-image. Our research focuses on the views of male and female patients on the relevant competencies of professional nursing staff. The "Critical Incident Techniqu" (CIT) (Flanagan, 1954) was applied to reveal relevant demands according to the patients' point of view. This technique has proven to be a suitable method for the reflection of nursing practice in this field of research and has provided realistic descriptions of staff behaviour. Nursing in the field of dialysis was chosen because of the specialized qualifications on staff needed and the high expectations assumed in this care. The CIT-interviews of one female and five male patients were transcribed and the content was analysed. Two main fields of demands were identified: "soft skills" and "hard skills". The patients especially stressed the demands on communicative and empathic competence ("soft skills"). Further research may be useful to validate the results with a larger sample.

  12. Analysis of demand for vegetable in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Mohamed, Zainalabidin; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Radam, Alias

    2008-01-01

    The market information is important in facilitating marketing system from production to the downstream. The purpose of this study is to estimate the Malaysian consumers’ demand for vegetables. By using Household Expenditure Survey 2004/05 data, demands for 6 vegetables are analyzed via a multi-stage budgeting system. The estimated demand elasticities show that the demands for all vegetables are found to increase when per capita income rises. Most of the vegetables are found to respond substa...

  13. Emotional labor demands and compensating wage differentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glomb, Theresa M; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Rotundo, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The concept of emotional labor demands and their effects on workers has received considerable attention in recent years, with most studies concentrating on stress, burnout, satisfaction, or other affective outcomes. This study extends the literature by examining the relationship between emotional labor demands and wages at the occupational level. Theories describing the expected effects of job demands and working conditions on wages are described. Results suggest that higher levels of emotional labor demands are associated with lower wage rates for jobs low in cognitive demands and with higher wage rates for jobs high in cognitive demands. Implications of these findings are discussed. (c) 2004 APA

  14. Meeting increased demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Andrew

    2004-07-01

    New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number

  15. Improving the Model for Energy Consumption Load Demand Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

    This paper proposes an application of a filter method in preprocessing stage for mid-term load demand forecasting to improve electricity load forecasting and to guarantee satisfactory forecasting accuracy. Case study employs the historical electricity consumption demand data in Thailand which were recorded in the 12 years of 1997 through to 2007. The load demand forecasted value is used for unit commitment and fuel reserve planning in the power system. This method consists of a trend component and a cyclical component decomposed from the original load demand using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter in the preprocessing stage and the forecasting of each component using Double Neural Networks (DNNs) in the forecasting stage. Experimental results show that with preprocessing before forecasting can predict the load demand better than that without preprocessing.

  16. Information Demand Pattern for Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Dirk Stamer; Kurt Sandkuhl; Veronika Zeiner

    2016-01-01

    Modern organizations face the challenge of having to manage an increasing amount of information. The resulting information overload leads more and more to problems in decision making with potentially negative economic consequences. Decision-makers and knowledge intensive workers are especially affected. To address this problem, information demand patterns were proposed which capture organizational knowledge about the information demand of single roles. This work extends the concept of informa...

  17. How much demand for New HIV prevention technologies can we really expect? Results from a discrete choice experiment in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fern Terris-Prestholt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For the first time in the history of HIV, new bio-medical interventions have been shown to be effective in preventing HIV transmission. For these new HIV prevention technologies (NPTs to have an impact on the epidemic, they must be widely used. This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE to: understand the relative strength of women's preferences for product characteristics, understand the implications for substitution away from male condoms, and inform realistic modelling of their potential impact and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A DCE was conducted among 1017 women in urban South Africa. Women were presented with choices between potential women's NPTs (microbicides, diaphragm, female condom and 'what I did last time' (use or not use a condom with different HIV and pregnancy prevention effectiveness' and prices. Choice probabilities are estimated using the nested logit model and used to predict uptake. RESULTS: In this high HIV prevalence setting, HIV prevention effectiveness is the main driver of uptake followed by pregnancy prevention effectiveness. For example a microbicide with poor effectiveness would have niche appeal at just 11% predicted uptake, while a highly effective microbicide (95% effective against HIV and pregnancy would have far wider appeal (56% predicted uptake. Though women who reported not using condoms were more likely to choose the NPTs, at current very high rates of male condom use in South Africa (60%, about half of microbicide uptake is projected to be among those currently not using condoms. CONCLUSIONS: Women are very interested in NPTs, especially if highly effective in preventing HIV and pregnancy. Women in greatest need were also most likely to switch to the new products. Where products are not yet available for distribution, proxy data, such as that generated by DCEs, can bring realism to overly optimistic uptake scenarios found in many current impact models.

  18. Exact Fill Rates for the (R, S Inventory Control with Discrete Distributed Demands for the Backordering Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia BABILONI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The fill rate is usually computed by using the traditional approach, which calculates it as the complement of the quotient between the expected unfulfilled demand and the expected demand per replenishment cycle, instead of directly the expected fraction of fulfilled demand. Furthermore the available methods to estimate the fill rate apply only under specific demand conditions. This paper shows the research gap regarding the estimation procedures to compute the fill rate and suggests: (i a new exact procedure to compute the traditional approximation for any discrete demand distribution; and (ii a new method to compute the fill rate directly as the fraction of fulfilled demand for any discrete demand distribution. Simulation results show that the latter methods outperform the traditional approach, which underestimates the simulated fill rate, over different demand patterns. This paper focuses on the traditional periodic review, base stock system when backlogged demands are allowed.

  19. Is the demand-control model still a usefull tool to assess work-related psychosocial risk for ischemic heart disease? Results from 14 year follow up in the Copenhagen City Heart study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Netterstrøm, Bo; Kristensen, Tage S; Jensen, Gorm;

    2010-01-01

    To test the usefulness of the Demand-Control Model as predictor for ischemic heart disease (IHD).......To test the usefulness of the Demand-Control Model as predictor for ischemic heart disease (IHD)....

  20. Simulation of annual electric lighting demand using various occupancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Anne; Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Svendsen, Svend

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation of the effect on electric lighting demand of applying occupancy models of various resolution to climate-based daylight modelling. The lighting demand was evaluated for a building zone with the occupant always present, with occupancy corresponding to absence...... factors, based on an estimated annual mean occupancy, based on estimated 1-hour mean occupancy, and based on 2-min occupancy intervals. The results showed little difference in the annual electric lighting demand when the same occupancy profile was used every day, as opposed to when profiles were used...... where occupancy varied every day. Furthermore, the results showed that annual electric lighting demand was evaluated slightly conservatively when a mean absence factor was applied as opposed to using dynamic occupancy profiles....

  1. An econometrics method to estimate demand of sugar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negar Seyed Soleimany

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sugar is one of the strategic goods in the basket of households in each country and it plays an important role in supplying the required energy. On the other hand, it is one of the goods, which Iranian government is about to change its subsidy strategies. To design useful sugar subsidy strategies, it is necessary to know sugar position in the basket of households and be familiar with households' sugar demand or consumption behavior. This research estimates sugar demand for Iranian households by using time series of 1984-2008, which is taken from central bank of Iran. In this paper, first independent and dependent variables of household sugar demand model are chosen based on the literature review and theory of demand. Then, sugar demand is estimated by OLS technique and linear regression. The preliminary statistical observations such as Durbin-Watson, F statistic and R2 indicate that the regression is admissible. The results seem plausible and consistent with theory and show that sugar demand in Iranian households is associated with household expenditure, relative sugar price, family size and indicate that demand of sugar is affected during the war time. The results also show the income elasticity is 0.8 and price elasticity is -0.2 which means sugar is essential good for Iranian households and is inelastic to price.

  2. Understanding crude oil import demand behaviour in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Marbuah, George

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil importation is a major drain on the economy of Ghana, yet no study has attempted to analyse the determinants of crude oil imports. This paper brings to the fore an understanding of the key drivers of crude oil import demand. Using the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework (ARDL), we estimate variant short-run and long-run import demand models for crude oil using time series data over the period 1980-2012. The results show that demand for crude oil is price inelastic in ...

  3. Single-Family Houses That Meet The Future Energy Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

    2002-01-01

    to examine these consequences thoroughly. The department is presently contributing to this end by participating in quite a few investigative projects, where single-family houses are designed to meet the proposed future energy demands. This paper describes the results obtained from one such project where...... the department, in co-operation with a major building entrepreneur, has developed a single-family house that shows that there are no evident problems in meeting the future energy demands....

  4. Gas demand forecasting by a new artificial intelligent algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi. B, Vahid; Khatibi, Elham

    2012-01-01

    Energy demand forecasting is a key issue for consumers and generators in all energy markets in the world. This paper presents a new forecasting algorithm for daily gas demand prediction. This algorithm combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression or GARCH. The proposed method is applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the proposed method.

  5. Innovation and Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2007-01-01

    the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

  6. On-demand treatment in persons with severe haemophilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saulyte Trakymiene, Sonata; Steen Carlsson, Katarina

    2014-08-01

    There are two main modes of replacement therapy for haemophilia patients: either to stop bleeding (on-demand) or regular infusions of clotting factor to prevent bleeds (prophylaxis). Fifty yr of clinical experience have provided evidence of the superiority of prophylaxis by showing a reduction in bleeds and development of arthropathy. Prophylaxis has been described extensively in terms of efficacy and health-economic aspects; however, on-demand treatment has received less attention. The aim of this study was to critically review the published literature on PubMed and discuss potential gaps of knowledge in on-demand treatment in persons with severe haemophilia without inhibitors by focusing on two key aspects: how on-demand treatment is provided and what outcome measures have been reported. We identified 134 papers of which 112 were excluded. Of the remaining 22 papers, 16 were comparative studies between prophylaxis and on-demand treatment and six were descriptions of on-demand treatment. The results showed limited reporting on data related to the key aspects of treatment on-demand. Early studies looked at degrees of joint bleeds and different treatment regimens in finding the optimal dose. However, from the late 1980s, there was almost no research into on-demand therapy except efficacy and safety studies of new rFVIII products and studies to prove superiority of prophylaxis over treatment on-demand. The success of on-demand therapy may depend on several factors, for example time to initial dose after a bleed and duration of treatment. Data on these key factors are limited and highlight the necessity of research to optimise replacement therapy. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  8. Divers of Passenger Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Wittmer, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    -Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

  9. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  10. Impacts of Demand-Side Resources on Electric Transmission Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sanstad, Alan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Will demand resources such as energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and distributed generation (DG) have an impact on electricity transmission requirements? Five drivers for transmission expansion are discussed: interconnection, reliability, economics, replacement, and policy. With that background, we review the results of a set of transmission studies that were conducted between 2010 and 2013 by electricity regulators, industry representatives, and other stakeholders in the three physical interconnections within the United States. These broad-based studies were funded by the US Department of Energy and included scenarios of reduced load growth due to EE, DR, and DG. While the studies were independent and used different modeling tools and interconnect-specific assumptions, all provided valuable results and insights. However, some caveats exist. Demand resources were evaluated in conjunction with other factors, and limitations on transmission additions between scenarios made understanding the role of demand resources difficult. One study, the western study, included analyses over both 10- and 20-year planning horizons; the 10-year analysis did not show near-term reductions in transmission, but the 20-year indicated fewer transmission additions, yielding a 36percent capital cost reduction. In the eastern study the reductions in demand largely led to reductions in local generation capacity and an increased opportunity for low-cost and renewable generation to export to other regions. The Texas study evaluated generation changes due to demand, and is in the process of examining demand resource impacts on transmission.

  11. Electricity demand for South Korean residential sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sa' ad, Suleiman, E-mail: suleimansaad@gmail.co [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

    2009-12-15

    This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment.

  12. Electricity demand for South Korean residential sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sa' ad, Suleiman [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

    2009-12-15

    This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment. (author)

  13. Investigating the Stability of Money Demand in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Nchor

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the demand for broad money and its stability in Ghana. Johansen’s cointegration approach reveals that the variables were non stationary and cointegrated, therefore, an error correction model, ECM was used to determine the factors that influence real money aggregate in Ghana from 1990 to 2014. The study estimated the results using two set of variables for real demand for money: M1 and M2+. This was done given the assumption that the demand for money was equal to the supply of money. The results show that, GDP affects the level of demand for money in the long run while the interest rate affects it in the short run. The error correction term in each of the cases shows that, 18 % of deviations in the real demand for money is corrected annually. The CUSUM tests of parameter stability showed that, the money demand function was stable over the period and the Chow test indicated that there were no structural breaks.

  14. Electricity demand profile with high penetration of heat pumps in Nordic area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the heat pump (HP) demand profile with high HP penetration in the Nordic area in order to achieve the carbon neutrality power system. The calculation method in the European Standard EN14825 was used to estimate the HP electricity demand profile. The study results show there wi......This paper presents the heat pump (HP) demand profile with high HP penetration in the Nordic area in order to achieve the carbon neutrality power system. The calculation method in the European Standard EN14825 was used to estimate the HP electricity demand profile. The study results show...... there will be high power demand from HPs and the selection of supplemental heating for heat pumps has a big impact on the peak electrical power load of heating. The study in this paper gives an estimate of the scale of the electricity demand with high penetration of heat pumps in the Nordic area....

  15. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  16. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  17. Domestic Demand Will Work

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    China can invigorate its economy by expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption chinese bankers are preparing to set up finance companies that provide consumer loans in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

  18. Intelligent energy demand forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Wei-Chiang

    2013-01-01

    This book offers approaches and methods to calculate optimal electric energy allocation, using evolutionary algorithms and intelligent analytical tools to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. Focuses on improving the drawbacks of existing algorithms.

  19. Impact of Energy Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambel, Ali B.

    1970-01-01

    The types of pollutants associated with the process of power production are identified. A nine-point proposal is presented on the ways the increase in power demands might be achieved with the minimum threat to the environment. (PR)

  20. Demand-Side Energy Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molderink, Albert; Iniewski, K.

    2012-01-01

    Concerns about climate change, increasing energy prices and dependability of energy supply ask for drastic changes in the energy supply chain, but also in the current demand-supply philosophy. Current trends in energy consumptions result in an increasing and more fluctuating electricity usage, causi

  1. Regional Differences in the Demand for Agricultural Socialized Service

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lu; LI

    2015-01-01

    With the gradual deepening of China’s agricultural modernization,establishing a sound agricultural socialized service system is of great significance to improving the efficiency of resource use and achieving sustainable agricultural development. On the basis of the micro survey data on China’s 12 provinces,we analyze the intensity of demand for agricultural socialized service in different regions as well as the main factors influencing farmers’ demand willingness. The results show that there are regional differences in farmers’ demand for agricultural socialized service,and among multiple factors affecting the demand willingness of agricultural socialized service,farmers’ individual characteristics,household economic characteristics and farmers’ social communication behavior have varying degrees of impact on farmers’ choice of service.

  2. Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuming LIU; Wenjun LIU; Jinduan CHEN; Qi WANG

    2012-01-01

    A flaw of demand coverage method in solving optimal monitoring stations problem under multiple demand patterns was identified in this paper. In the demand coverage method, the demand coverage of each set of monitoring stations is calculated by accumulating their demand coverage under each demand pattern, and the impact of temporal distribution between different time periods or demand patterns is ignored. This could lead to miscalculation of the optimal locations of the monitoring stations. To overcome this flaw, this paper presents a Demand Coverage Index (DCI) based method. The optimization considers extended period unsteady hydrau- lics due to the change of nodal demands with time. The method is cast in a genetic algorithm framework for integration with Environmental Protection Agency Net (EPANET) and is demonstrated through example applica- tions. Results show that the set of optimal locations of monitoring stations obtained using the DCI method can represent the water quality of water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns better than the one obtained using previous methods.

  3. Ad Hoc on-Demand Distance Vector (AODV Routing Protocol Performance Evaluation on Hybrid Ad Hoc Network: Comparison of Result of Ns-2 Simulation and Implementation on Testbed using PDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riri Sari

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In Mobile Ad hoc NETwork (MANET, node supplemented with wireless equipment has the capacity to manage and organise autonomously, without the presence of network infrastructures. Hybrid ad hoc network, enable several nodes to move freely (mobile to create instant communication. Independent from infrastructure. They could access the Local Area Network (LAN or the Internet. Functionalities of ad hoc network very much dependent on the routing protocol that determines the routing around node. Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV is one of routing protocols in ad hoc network which has a reactive characteristic. This protocol is the most common protocol being researched and used. In this Research, AODV protocol investigation was conducted by developing a testbed using Personal Computer, several Laptops (the Linux Red Hat operation system 9.0 and Fedora Core 2, and Personal Digital Assistant (PDA. This research also made a complete package by mean of cross compilation for PDA iPAQ. In general, results obtained from the simulation of AODV protocol using Network Simulator NS-2 are packet delivery ratio 99.89%, end-to-end delay of 0.14 seconds and routing overhead of 1,756.61 byte per second. Afterwards results from simulation were compared to results from testbed. Results obtained from testbed are as follows: the packet delivery ratio is 99.57%, the end-to-end delay is 1.004 seconds and the routing overhead is 1,360.36 byte per second.

  4. Mining residential water and electricity demand data in Southern California to inform demand management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cominola, A.; Spang, E. S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Loge, F. J.; Lund, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    characterizing them with respect to consumption profiles features and socio- demographic information. Results show how such better understanding of the considered users' community allows spotting potentially interesting areas for water and energy demand management interventions.

  5. Demand for abortion and post abortion care in Ibadan, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background While induced abortion is considered to be illegal and socially unacceptable in Nigeria, it is still practiced by many women in the country. Poor family planning and unsafe abortion practices have daunting effects on maternal health. For instance, Nigeria is on the verge of not meeting the Millennium development goals on maternal health due to high maternal mortality ratio, estimated to be about 630 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Recent evidences have shown that a major factor in this trend is the high incidence of abortion in the country. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the factors determining the demand for abortion and post-abortion care in Ibadan city of Nigeria. Methods The study employed data from a hospital-based/exploratory survey carried out between March to September 2010. Closed ended questionnaires were administered to a sample of 384 women of reproductive age from three hospitals within the Ibadan metropolis in South West Nigeria. However, only 308 valid responses were received and analysed. A probit model was fitted to determine the socioeconomic factors that influence demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Results The results showed that 62% of respondents demanded for abortion while 52.3% of those that demanded for abortion received post-abortion care. The findings again showed that income was a significant determinant of abortion and post-abortion care demand. Women with higher income were more likely to demand abortion and post-abortion care. Married women were found to be less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Older women were significantly less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Mothers’ education was only statistically significant in determining abortion demand but not post-abortion care demand. Conclusion The findings suggest that while abortion is illegal in Nigeria, some women in the Ibadan city do abort unwanted pregnancies. The consequence of this

  6. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  7. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  8. The Market Demand for Air Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taneja, N.

    1972-01-01

    Although the presentation will touch upon the areas of market for air transportation, the theoretical foundations of the demand function, the demand models, and model selection and evaluation, the emphasis of the presentation will be on a qualitative description of the factors affecting the demand for air transportation. The presentation will rely heavily on the results of market surveys carried out by the Port of New York Authority, the University of Michigan, and Census of Transportation.

  9. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  10. Survey of perceived stress and work demands of consultant doctors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agius, R M; Blenkin, H; Deary, I J; Zealley, H E; Wood, R A

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to assess the work demands as potential stressors of health service consultants, and to describe the development of tools for measuring stress experiences of consultants. METHODS: A stratified random sample of 500 NHS consultants in Scotland was targeted by a postal questionnaire and 375 (75%) returned a valid response. They completed questionnaires, including information on demographic factors, work demands, occupational stressors, and burnout. RESULTS: Principal components analysis showed that professional work demands of consultants fell into three categories: clinical, academic, and administrative. Their perceived stressors separated into four main factors: clinical responsibility, demands on time, organisational constraints, and personal confidence. These were assessed by 25 questions in the specialist doctors' stress inventory. Specific questions about perceived stressors which resulted in a high positive response included questions about demands on time, and organisational change in the NHS. CONCLUSION: These self reported data characterise and measure the consultants' work demands and their role as potential stressors. These measurements could form the basis for strategies to reduce occupational stress in these workers. PMID:8664957

  11. A demand chain design for Chinese oatmeal companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Wen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a demand chain design framework for Chinese small and medium enterprises in the oatmeal industry, to help them blaze a new trail in China's oatmeal market. Design/methodology/approach: The approach using in the demand chain design is extended Quality Function Development (QFD, which provides a communication tool so that designers can find a way to integrate customers’ needs into design chain. Findings: This paper illustrates an investigation of oatmeal consumed in China, and the result shows 9 factors influencing consumer’s purchasing decisions mostly. Then use these factors to design the demand chain, and the most important processes and tasks for the enterprises are come out from the fist and the second House of Quality (HOQ, which are the main part of the design. Finally, a demand chain design is completed. Research limitations/implications: It is an application of a demand chain design framework in real Chinese oatmeal market, but the data sample is limited. Consumption surveys should have more data sources with more detailed consumer groups. And the design model needs more real-life examples to verify Practical implications: Since oatmeal products industry develops rapidly in China, oatmeal market is becoming a vast bright market. And due to the low customer satisfaction of Chinese oatmeal market, it is crucial that companies can find a way to design their demand chain, so they can completely meet the needs. Originality/value: A demand chain design framework is presented with being specific to Chinese oatmeal market. It shows a real-life example of demand chain design, and provides the domestic oatmeal companies with an approach to compete in the market.

  12. Open Automated Demand Response for Small Commerical Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, June Han; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan

    2009-05-01

    This report characterizes small commercial buildings by market segments, systems and end-uses; develops a framework for identifying demand response (DR) enabling technologies and communication means; and reports on the design and development of a low-cost OpenADR enabling technology that delivers demand reductions as a percentage of the total predicted building peak electric demand. The results show that small offices, restaurants and retail buildings are the major contributors making up over one third of the small commercial peak demand. The majority of the small commercial buildings in California are located in southern inland areas and the central valley. Single-zone packaged units with manual and programmable thermostat controls make up the majority of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems for small commercial buildings with less than 200 kW peak electric demand. Fluorescent tubes with magnetic ballast and manual controls dominate this customer group's lighting systems. There are various ways, each with its pros and cons for a particular application, to communicate with these systems and three methods to enable automated DR in small commercial buildings using the Open Automated Demand Response (or OpenADR) communications infrastructure. Development of DR strategies must consider building characteristics, such as weather sensitivity and load variability, as well as system design (i.e. under-sizing, under-lighting, over-sizing, etc). Finally, field tests show that requesting demand reductions as a percentage of the total building predicted peak electric demand is feasible using the OpenADR infrastructure.

  13. Demand for abortion and post abortion care in Ibadan, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoyemi, Bosede O; Novignon, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    While induced abortion is considered to be illegal and socially unacceptable in Nigeria, it is still practiced by many women in the country. Poor family planning and unsafe abortion practices have daunting effects on maternal health. For instance, Nigeria is on the verge of not meeting the Millennium development goals on maternal health due to high maternal mortality ratio, estimated to be about 630 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Recent evidences have shown that a major factor in this trend is the high incidence of abortion in the country. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the factors determining the demand for abortion and post-abortion care in Ibadan city of Nigeria. The study employed data from a hospital-based/exploratory survey carried out between March to September 2010. Closed ended questionnaires were administered to a sample of 384 women of reproductive age from three hospitals within the Ibadan metropolis in South West Nigeria. However, only 308 valid responses were received and analysed. A probit model was fitted to determine the socioeconomic factors that influence demand for abortion and post-abortion care. The results showed that 62% of respondents demanded for abortion while 52.3% of those that demanded for abortion received post-abortion care. The findings again showed that income was a significant determinant of abortion and post-abortion care demand. Women with higher income were more likely to demand abortion and post-abortion care. Married women were found to be less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Older women were significantly less likely to demand for abortion and post-abortion care. Mothers' education was only statistically significant in determining abortion demand but not post-abortion care demand. The findings suggest that while abortion is illegal in Nigeria, some women in the Ibadan city do abort unwanted pregnancies. The consequence of this in the absence of proper post

  14. Travel Demand Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, Frank [ORNL; Garrow, Dr. Laurie [Georgia Institute of Technology

    2011-01-01

    This chapter describes the principal types of both passenger and freight demand models in use today, providing a brief history of model development supported by references to a number of popular texts on the subject, and directing the reader to papers covering some of the more recent technical developments in the area. Over the past half century a variety of methods have been used to estimate and forecast travel demands, drawing concepts from economic/utility maximization theory, transportation system optimization and spatial interaction theory, using and often combining solution techniques as varied as Box-Jenkins methods, non-linear multivariate regression, non-linear mathematical programming, and agent-based microsimulation.

  15. Education on Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boysen, Lis; Hende, Merete

    2015-01-01

    Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de to temat......Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de...

  16. Cognitive demands of lower paleolithic toolmaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, Dietrich; Hecht, Erin; Khreisheh, Nada; Bradley, Bruce; Chaminade, Thierry

    2015-01-01

    Stone tools provide some of the most abundant, continuous, and high resolution evidence of behavioral change over human evolution, but their implications for cognitive evolution have remained unclear. We investigated the neurophysiological demands of stone toolmaking by training modern subjects in known Paleolithic methods ("Oldowan", "Acheulean") and collecting structural and functional brain imaging data as they made technical judgments (outcome prediction, strategic appropriateness) about planned actions on partially completed tools. Results show that this task affected neural activity and functional connectivity in dorsal prefrontal cortex, that effect magnitude correlated with the frequency of correct strategic judgments, and that the frequency of correct strategic judgments was predictive of success in Acheulean, but not Oldowan, toolmaking. This corroborates hypothesized cognitive control demands of Acheulean toolmaking, specifically including information monitoring and manipulation functions attributed to the "central executive" of working memory. More broadly, it develops empirical methods for assessing the differential cognitive demands of Paleolithic technologies, and expands the scope of evolutionary hypotheses that can be tested using the available archaeological record.

  17. Managing electricity demand through dynamic pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peddie, Robert A.; Bulleit, Douglas A.

    1985-11-01

    As electrical energy cannot be stored in large quantities with current technology, the energy balance of the electricity supply system has to be maintained continually by adjustments in supply to meet an unrestricted customer demand. Electricity over the projected peak tends to be very expensive, so utilities have sought to restrict demand during such periods to improve internal economic efficiency. The techniques used can be shown to be inefficient and disruptive if widely applied. Due to the way the utility and the regulators have homogenized costs, rate structures provide the customer no useful cost message as motivation to economically control utilization. Advances in microelectronics and communications remove these restrictions by allowing the customer to be informed continually of the cost of a kiloWatt hour (kWh) at the time of use. For the first time, the ensuing control of demand by the customer enables efficient utilization and simplifies the dynamic control of the electric system. This paper describes the method of formulating dynamic prices, the main elements and examples of the system, and how it can be introduced. The enumerated benefits show that greater customer satisfaction and improved economic management of the nation's resources and the utility's assets would result.

  18. Violence and TV Shows

    OpenAIRE

    ÖZTÜRK, Yrd. Doç. Dr. Şinasi

    2008-01-01

    This study aims to discuss theories on theviolent effects of TV shows on viewers, especiallyon children. Therefore, this study includes a briefdiscussion of definitions of violence, discussionof violence theories, main results of researcheson televised violence, measuring TV violence,perception of televised violence, individualdifferences and reactions to TV violence,aggressiveness and preferences for TV violence.

  19. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  20. The demand for euros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the demand for euros using panel data for 10 euro area countries covering the period from 1999 to 2008. Monetary aggregates are constructed to ensure that money is a national concept by excluding deposits owned by non-residents and including external deposits owned by

  1. DEMAND AND PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA MARIA

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Studying the consumer’s behavior by the ordinal approach of utility with the help of indifference curves allows us to deduce the two “movement laws of demand” in this chapter: the demand for a “normal” good is decreasing function of its price and an increasing function of income. We will use the elasticity concept to measure the intensity of the relation that is established between the demand, on the one hand, and prices or income, on the other hand: elasticity – price, direct and crossed, and elasticity – income. We can classify the goods in many categories, depending on the values that this elasticity takes. The demand elasticity can be determined depending on price and income. It reflects the proportion in which the demand for different products changes with the modification of the consumers’ income, the other factors remaining constant. The elasticity compared to the income is a demonstration of legality from the consumer’s sphere, which determines a certain hierarchy of the needs of each population category in a certain level of income. The movement of prices orients both the options and decisions of producers, namely the most useful productions and the most efficient investments, as well as the consumers’ options and decisions on the most advantageous buying of goods and services that they need. The prices appear as a “signal system” coordinating and making coherence the economic agents’ decisions – producers, consumers and population.

  2. Service Demand Discovery Mechanism for Mobile Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dapeng; Yan, Junjie; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Ruyan

    2016-11-23

    In the last few years, the service demand for wireless data over mobile networks has continually been soaring at a rapid pace. Thereinto, in Mobile Social Networks (MSNs), users can discover adjacent users for establishing temporary local connection and thus sharing already downloaded contents with each other to offload the service demand. Due to the partitioned topology, intermittent connection and social feature in such a network, the service demand discovery is challenging. In particular, the service demand discovery is exploited to identify the best relay user through the service registration, service selection and service activation. In order to maximize the utilization of limited network resources, a hybrid service demand discovery architecture, such as a Virtual Dictionary User (VDU) is proposed in this paper. Based on the historical data of movement, users can discover their relationships with others. Subsequently, according to the users activity, VDU is selected to facilitate the service registration procedure. Further, the service information outside of a home community can be obtained through the Global Active User (GAU) to support the service selection. To provide the Quality of Service (QoS), the Service Providing User (SPU) is chosen among multiple candidates. Numerical results show that, when compared with other classical service algorithms, the proposed scheme can improve the successful service demand discovery ratio by 25% under reduced overheads.

  3. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  4. The Response of Abortion Demand to Changes in Abortion Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medoff, Marshall H.

    2008-01-01

    This study uses pooled cross-section time-series data, over the years 1982, 1992 and 2000, to estimate the impact of various restrictive abortion laws on the demand for abortion. This study complements and extends prior research by explicitly including the price of obtaining an abortion in the estimation. The empirical results show that the real…

  5. The Response of Abortion Demand to Changes in Abortion Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medoff, Marshall H.

    2008-01-01

    This study uses pooled cross-section time-series data, over the years 1982, 1992 and 2000, to estimate the impact of various restrictive abortion laws on the demand for abortion. This study complements and extends prior research by explicitly including the price of obtaining an abortion in the estimation. The empirical results show that the real…

  6. Energy demand modeling for Uzbekistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bobur Khodjaev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to energy demand forecasting in Uzbekistan. Studies show that in spite of the abundant reserves of hydrocarbons, low energy efficiency can have an adverse impact on energy security in Uzbekistan in the future. Oil and gas are the main primary energy source and they ensure energy security of Uzbekistan. Energy demand forecasting is essential in order to develop an effective energy policy. Such forecast can be useful to plan oil and gas production volumes, to identify priorities for the industrial modernization and to create favorable conditions for sustainable economic development in the future. Author proposes model based on translog function for developing medium-and long-term development programs in energy sector and the modernization and technological re-equipment of industry.

  7. A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Yalçıntaş

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

  8. Disaggregation of the demand for hospital care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.K.A. van Doorslaer (Eddy); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1988-01-01

    textabstractIn this article we want to confront some of the results of the theoretical literature on aggregation with the empirical consequences of aggregation in the context of the analysis of demand for hospital care. There has been an evolution in the estimation of hospital demand functions from

  9. Disaggregation of the demand for hospital care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.K.A. van Doorslaer (Eddy); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1988-01-01

    textabstractIn this article we want to confront some of the results of the theoretical literature on aggregation with the empirical consequences of aggregation in the context of the analysis of demand for hospital care. There has been an evolution in the estimation of hospital demand functions from

  10. The Demand for Rental Homes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skak, Morten

    2007-01-01

    development, and gives some indications of the future demand for rental housing in Denmark. The results indicate a future stagnant rental demand kept up by an increasing share of persons of old age and young persons undergoing education, and thus a rising homeownership rate. It is believed that the structural...

  11. Disruptive innovation: the demand side.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havighurst, Clark C

    2008-01-01

    The notion of disruptive innovation provides a welcome framework for considering the prospects for low-cost alternatives in American medicine. Such innovations as have been seen, however, are largely the result of demand by patients paying their own bills because they have high-deductible coverage or are uninsured. Many other cost-saving innovations are discouraged by financing systems that are themselves largely immune to competition from disruptive innovators.

  12. Income distribution trends and future food demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirera, Xavier; Masset, Edoardo

    2010-09-27

    This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively.

  13. Income distribution trends and future food demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirera, Xavier; Masset, Edoardo

    2010-01-01

    This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively. PMID:20713387

  14. Acceleration in the care of older adults: new demands as predictors of employee burnout and engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubicek, Bettina; Korunka, Christian; Ulferts, Heike

    2013-07-01

    This paper introduces the concept of acceleration-related demands in the care of older adults. It examines these new demands and their relation to cognitive, emotional, and physical job demands and to employee well-being. Various changes in the healthcare systems of Western societies pose new demands for healthcare professionals' careers and jobs. In particular today's societal changes give rise to acceleration-related demands, which manifest themselves in work intensification and in increasing requirements to handle new technical equipment and to update one's job-related knowledge. It is, therefore, of interest to investigate the effects of these new demands on the well-being of employees. Survey. Between March-June 2010 the survey was conducted among healthcare professionals involved in care of older adults in Austria. A total of 1498 employees provided data on cognitive, emotional, and physical job demands and on acceleration-related demands. The outcome variables were the core dimensions of burnout (emotional exhaustion and depersonalization) and engagement (vigour and dedication). Hierarchical regression analyses show that acceleration-related demands explain additional variance for exhaustion, depersonalization, vigour, and dedication when controlling for cognitive, emotional, and physical demands. Furthermore, acceleration-related demands associated with increasing requirements to update one's knowledge are related to positive outcomes (vigour and dedication). Acceleration-related demands associated with an increasing work pace are related to negative outcomes such as emotional exhaustion. Results illustrate that new demands resulting from social acceleration generate potential challenges for on-the-job learning and potential risks to employees' health and well-being. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. Optimal Ordering and Pricing Policies for Seasonal Products: Impacts of Demand Uncertainty and Capital Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinzhao Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With a stochastic price-dependent market demand, this paper investigates how demand uncertainty and capital constraint affect retailer’s integrated ordering and pricing policies towards seasonal products. The retailer with capital constraint is normalized to be with zero capital endowment while it can be financed by an external bank. The problems are studied under a low and high demand uncertainty scenario, respectively. Results show that when demand uncertainty level is relatively low, the retailer faced with demand uncertainty always sets a lower price than the riskless one, while its order quantity may be smaller or larger than the riskless retailer’s which depends on the level of market size. When adding a capital constraint, the retailer will strictly prefer a higher price but smaller quantity policy. However, in a high demand uncertainty scenario, the impacts are more intricate. The retailer faced with demand uncertainty will always order a larger quantity than the riskless one if demand uncertainty level is high enough (above a critical value, while the capital-constrained retailer is likely to set a lower price than the well-funded one when demand uncertainty level falls within a specific interval. Therefore, it can be further concluded that the impact of capital constraint on the retailer’s pricing decision can be influenced by different demand uncertainty levels.

  16. Visualisation turns down energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Ole Michael [Danish Building and Urban Research, Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2003-07-01

    After many energy saving campaigns, Danish families give the impression that they are conscious of energy consumption. Children have learned to turn off the light and adults to buy low-energy bulbs and household appliances. Questioned about their energy consumption and its fluctuations, the same people nevertheless confess to not really knowing. You pay your energy bill but pay no attention to the current consumption, or its level. Unlike other types of consumption, energy consumption is an almost invisible type of consumption. Nevertheless, as a secondary consumption it is much affected by primary consumption in the form of white goods, appliances, cars, food etc., the main purpose of which usually is visibility. This paper presents the result of an experiment to make the energy consumption visible. Meters in the flats showing actual electricity, heat and water consumption confront tenants with the consequences of their own behaviour. The experiment also investigates different set-ups concerning information and communication about energy consumption. Monthly consumption and levels of consumption compared within the neighbourhood are elements of this information. Also quarterly eco-accounting, with key-figures of consumption and environmental considerations like CO{sub 2} emission, are part of the information set-up. Within the first year of visualisation one case shows a 9% reduction of heat and a 22% reduction of electricity. The other cases seem to follow the same tendency. The philosophy of the experiment is that you must know your position in order to change it. You must know about the level of your own energy consumption in order to turn down energy demand. The visible meters are elements in 'Urban Ecological Renewal of a Housing Block' (Hedebygade Block) in a central district of Copenhagen.

  17. Enhancing perceptual and attentional skills requires common demands between the action video games and transfer tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oei, Adam C; Patterson, Michael D

    2015-01-01

    Despite increasing evidence that shows action video game play improves perceptual and cognitive skills, the mechanisms of transfer are not well-understood. In line with previous work, we suggest that transfer is dependent upon common demands between the game and transfer task. In the current study, participants played one of four action games with varying speed, visual, and attentional demands for 20 h. We examined whether training enhanced performance for attentional blink, selective attention, attending to multiple items, visual search and auditory detection. Non-gamers who played the game (Modern Combat) with the highest demands showed transfer to tasks of attentional blink and attending to multiple items. The game (MGS Touch) with fewer attentional demands also decreased attentional blink, but to a lesser degree. Other games failed to show transfer, despite having many action game characteristics but at a reduced intensity. The results support the common demands hypothesis.

  18. Demand Flexibility Time Intervals for Aggregate Residential Load Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Sajjad, Intisar A.; CHICCO Gianfranco; Napoli, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the definition of demand flexibility time intervals. These intervals are extracted from the binomial probability model of load variation patterns with the two possible categories of increase and non-increase in demand. These intervals along with the information on the coefficient of variation of the aggregate demand are used to assess the potential of demand flexibility exhibited by the aggregate residential demand in different periods of the day. The results of the prop...

  19. Market Expects Demand Increase

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In the recent releasing Textile Industry Invigorating Plan,"givingattention to both domestlc and overseas markets"is put into a keyposition.Under a series policies,such as increasing the tax rebaterate for textile and garment exports,and granting loan for SME,thefurther development of this industry is expectative.Otherwise,weshould know that it costs time for demand driving.This need ourpatients.The only questionis how much time we have to wait.

  20. Single-Family Houses That Meet The Future Energy Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

    2002-01-01

    In 1990 the Danish Government decided to make an effort to reduce the heat demand of new buildings by 50% before the year 2000. In 1995 a new Building Code (Boligministeriet 1995) was introduced, which resulted in a 25% reduction compared to the previous Building Code (Boligministeriet 1988). Bef...... the department, in co-operation with a major building entrepreneur, has developed a single-family house that shows that there are no evident problems in meeting the future energy demands....... to examine these consequences thoroughly. The department is presently contributing to this end by participating in quite a few investigative projects, where single-family houses are designed to meet the proposed future energy demands. This paper describes the results obtained from one such project where...

  1. Estimating elasticity for residential electricity demand in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, G; Zheng, X; Song, F

    2012-01-01

    Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff.

  2. THE ESTIMATION OF THE AUTOMOTIVE FUEL DEMAND IN IRAN: ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeedeh Ahmadi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the demand for fuels in Iran automotive sector, using the Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate price and income elasticities for all the available fuels in the automotive sector: gasoline, automotive gas oil and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG. These estimates can be very useful in predicting the overall impacts of price policies designed to reduce fuel consumption and to address concerns of carbon emissions or energy security. Empirical results indicate all own-price elasticities are negative and significant at 5% level. The own-price elasticity for gas oil, gasoline and LPG were estimated by about -0.22, -1.01 and -3.58, respectively. The findings also show that gasoline and gas oil are normal goods and LPG being an inferior good.

  3. Demand chain management - The evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Ericsson

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM and Demand Chain Management (DCM are among the new and debated topics concerning logistics in the literature. The question considered in this paper is: “Are these concepts needed or will they just add to the confusion?” Lasting business concepts have always evolved in close interaction between business and academia. Different approaches start out in business and they are then, more or less si- multaneously, aligned, integrated, systemised and structured in academia. In this way a terminology (or language is provided that helps in further diffusion of the concepts. There is a lack of consensus on the definition of the concept of SCM. This may be one of the major reasons for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business. Relationships in SCM span from rather loose coalitions to highly structured virtual network integrations. DCM is a highly organised chain in which the key is mutual interdependence and partnership. The purpose is to create a distinctive competence for the chain as a whole that helps to identify and satisfy customer needs and wishes. The classical research concerning vertical marketing systems is very helpful in systemising the rather unstructured discussions in current SCM research. The trend lies in increasing competition between channels rather than between companies, which in turn leads to the creation of channels with a high degree of partnership and mutual interdependence between members. These types of channels are known as organised vertical marketing systems in the classic marketing channel research. The behaviour in these types of channels, as well as the formal and informal structures, roles in the network, power and dependence relations, etc. are well covered topics in the literature. The concept of vertical marketing systems lies behind the definition of demand chains and demand chain management proposed in this paper. A

  4. 需求侧响应对降低发电成本的效益估计%Estimation of Generating Costs Reduction as a Result of Demand Response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    翟桥柱; 王凌云

    2014-01-01

    实施分时电价的重要目的之一是鼓励用户调整其用电模式,即做出负荷响应。由此希望诱导出更为合理的系统总负荷曲线,即使得电力生产中的总发电成本、煤耗及排放量更小。在实施分时电价前对这种潜在效益做出某种估计,找到最满意的总负荷曲线,对于制定合理的电价至关重要。为此,对负荷响应导致的发电成本降低效益提出了一种估计方法。该方法基于求解一种特殊形式的安全约束机组组合问题而实现,同时也得到了使总发电成本最低的最优系统总负荷曲线。有关数值试验结果验证了方法的有效性。由于电价曲线与负荷曲线之间的密切联系,所以该方法可以为制定合理的电力定价策略提供参考。%One of the most important aims of time-of-use electricity pricing is to encourage the customers to adjust their load profiles. As a result, the aggregate system load profile of a grid may be more preferable, i.e., the corresponding generating costs, fuel consumption and emission in electricity generation will be reduced. Estimating the potential benefits before the implementation of time-of-use pricing and finding the most satisfactory system load profile are very important in determining the suitable level of electricity prices. In this paper, the potential benefits resulted from demand response were estimated by solving a special kind of security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem and the optimal system load profile was also obtained. Numerical testing was performed for two example systems and the results were also analyzed. The proposed method may provide reference for finding suitable pricing strategies.

  5. Avoiding the conflict: Metacognitive awareness drives the selection of low-demand contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desender, Kobe; Buc Calderon, Cristian; Van Opstal, Filip; Van den Bussche, Eva

    2017-07-01

    Previous research attempted to explain how humans strategically adapt behavior in order to achieve successful task performance. Recently, it has been suggested that 1 potential strategy is to avoid tasks that are too demanding. Here, we report 3 experiments that investigate the empirically neglected role of metacognitive awareness in this process. In these experiments, participants could freely choose between performing a task in either a high-demand or a low-demand context. Using subliminal priming, we ensured that participants were not aware of the visual stimuli creating these different demand contexts. Our results showed that participants who noticed a difference in task difficulty (i.e., metacognitive aware participants) developed a clear preference for the low-demand context. In contrast, participants who experienced no difference in task difficulty (i.e., metacognitive unaware participants) based their choices on variables unrelated to cognitive demand (e.g., the color or location associated with a context), and did not develop a preference for the low-demand context. Crucially, this pattern was found despite identical task performance in both metacognitive awareness groups. A multiple regression approach confirmed that metacognitive awareness was the main factor driving the preference for low-demand contexts. These results argue for an important role of metacognitive awareness in the strategic avoidance of demanding tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Application of short-term water demand prediction model to Seoul.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, C N; Koo, J Y; Yu, M J

    2002-01-01

    To predict daily water demand for Seoul, Korea, the artificial neural network (ANN) was used. For the cross correlation, the factors affecting water demand such as maximum temperature, humidity, and wind speed as natural factors, holidays as a social factor and daily demand 1 day before were used. From the results of learning using various hidden layers and units in order to establish the structure of optimal ANN, the case of 3 hidden layers and numbers of unit with the same number of input factors showed the best result and, therefore, it was applied to seasonal water demand prediction. The performance of ANN was compared with a multiple regression method. We discuss the representation ability of the model building process and the applicability of the ANN approach for the daily water demand prediction. ANN provided reasonable results for time series prediction.

  7. Ductility demands on buckling-restrained braced frames under earthquake loading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Larry A. Fahnestock; Richard Sause; James M. Ricles; Le-Wu Lu

    2003-01-01

    Accurate estimates of ductility demands on buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs) are crucial to performance-based design of BRBFs. An analytical study on the seismic behavior of BRBFs has been conducted at the ATLSS Center, Lehigh University to prepare for an upcoming experimental program. The analysis program DRAIN-2DX was used to model a one-bay, four-story prototype BRBF including material and geometric nonlinearities. The bucklingrestrained brace (BRB) model incorporates both isotropic and kinematic hardening. Nonlinear static pushover and timehistory analyses were performed on the prototype BRBF. Performance objectives for the BRBs were defined and uscd to evaluate thc time-history analysis results. Particular emphasis was placed on global ductility demands and ductility demands oa the BRBs. These demands were compared with anticipated ductility capacities. The analysis results, along with results from similar previous studics, are used to evaluate the BRBF design provisions that have been recommended for codification in the United States. Thc results show that BRB maximum ductility demands can be as high as 20 to 25. These demands significantly exceed those anticipated by the BRBF recommended provisions. Results from the static pushover and timehistory analyses are used to demonstrate why the ductility demands exceed those anticipated by the recommended provisions.The BRB qualification testing protocol contained in the BRBF recommended provisions is shown to be inadequate because it requires only a maximum ductility demand of at most 7.5. Modifications to the testing protocol are recommended.

  8. Ductility demands on buckling-restrained braced frames under earthquake loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahnestock, Larry A.; Sause, Richard; Ricles, James M.; Lu, Le-Wu

    2003-12-01

    Accurate estimates of ductility demands on buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs) are crucial to performance-based design of BRBFs. An analytical study on the seismic behavior of BRBFs has been conducted at the ATLSS Center, Lehigh University to prepare for an upcoming experimental program. The analysis program DRAIN-2DX was used to model a one-bay, four-story prototype BRBF including material and geometric nonlinearities. The buckling-restrained brace (BRB) model incorporates both isotropic and kinematic hardening. Nonlinear static pushover and time-history analyses were performed on the prototype BRBF. Performance objectives for the BRBs were defined and used to evaluate the time-history analysis results. Particular emphasis was placed on global ductility demands and ductility demands on the BRBs. These demands were compared with anticipated ductility capacities. The analysis results, along with results from similar previous studies, are used to evaluate the BRBF design provisions that have been recommended for codification in the United States. The results show that BRB maximum ductility demands can be as high as 20 to 25. These demands significantly exceed those anticipated by the BRBF recommended provisions. Results from the static pushover and time-history analyses are used to demonstrate why the ductility demands exceed those anticipated by the recommended provisions. The BRB qualification testing protocol contained in the BRBF recommended provisions is shown to be inadequate because it requires only a maximum ductility demand of at most 7.5. Modifications to the testing protocol are recommended.

  9. Measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand: economic shape restrictions and nonparametric demand estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Blundell, Richard; Horowitz, Joel L.; Parey, Matthias

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a new method for estimating a demand function and the welfare consequences of price changes. The method is applied to gasoline demand in the U.S. and is applicable to other goods. The method uses shape restrictions derived from economic theory to improve the precision of a nonparametric estimate of the demand function. Using data from the U.S. National Household Travel Survey, we show that the restrictions are consistent with the data on gasoline demand and remove the anom...

  10. THE DEMAND DISRUPTION MANAGEMENT PROBLEM FOR A SUPPLY CHAIN SYSTEM WITH NONLINEAR DEMAND FUNCTIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Minghui XU; Xiangtong QI; Gang YU; Hanqin ZHANG; Chengxiu GAO

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of handling the uncertainty of demand in aone-supplier-one-retailer supply chain system. Demand variation often makes the real productiondifferent from what is originally planned, causing a deviation cost from the production plan. Assumethe market demand is sensitive to the retail price in a nonlinear form, we show how to effectivelyhandle the demand uncertainty in a supply chain, both for the case of centralized-decision-makingsystem and the case of decentralized-decision-making system with perfect coordination.

  11. Use of a latency-based demand assessment to identify potential demands for functional analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Call, Nathan A; Miller, Sarah J; Mintz, Joslyn Cynkus; Mevers, Joanna Lomas; Scheithauer, Mindy C; Eshelman, Julie E; Beavers, Gracie A

    2016-12-01

    Unlike potential tangible positive reinforcers, which are typically identified for inclusion in functional analyses empirically using preference assessments, demands are most often selected arbitrarily or based on caregiver report. The present study evaluated the use of a demand assessment with 12 participants who exhibited escape-maintained problem behavior. Participants were exposed to 10 demands, with aversiveness measured by average latency to the first instance of problem behavior. In subsequent functional analyses, results of a demand condition that included the demand with the shortest latency to problem behavior resulted in identification of an escape function for 11 of the participants. In contrast, a demand condition that included the demand with the longest latency resulted in identification of an escape function for only 5 participants. The implication of these findings is that for the remaining 7 participants, selection of the demand for the functional analysis without using the results of the demand assessment could have produced a false-negative finding. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  12. Climate change and peak demand for electricity: Evaluating policies for reducing peak demand under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Abigail Walker

    problems, pricing approaches are not well suited to ensure system reliability. This research shows that direct quantity controls are better suited for avoiding catastrophic failure that results when demand exceeds supply capacity.

  13. The experience of demanding work environments in younger workers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winding, Trine Nøhr; Labriola, Merete; Nohr, Ellen Aagaard

    2015-01-01

    , vulnerability, health and parental socioeconomic status from registers and a questionnaire completed in 2004. A questionnaire concerning eight measures of subjects' psychosocial and physical work environment in 2010 was used to determine the outcomes of interest. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 679......: To describe the work environment of Danish 20- to 21-year olds and to investigate the influence of family socioeconomic background and individual characteristics at age 14-15 on later experience of physical and psychosocial work environments. METHODS: We obtained information on subjects' school performance......-esteem at age 14-15 was associated with experiencing high demands and lack of trust and fairness at work, whereas low parental socioeconomic status was associated with a demanding physical work environment. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a social gradient in experiencing a demanding physical work environment...

  14. Demand power with EV charging schemes considering actual data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Hyeok Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Eco-friendly energies have recently become a popular topic. Given this trend, we predict that a large number of electric vehicles (EVs will be widely used. However, EVs need to be connected to a power system for charging, thereby causing severe risks, such as rapid increase of demand power. Therefore, in this study, we analyze the effects of EV charging on demand power, which depend on different charging schemes, namely, dumb charging, off-peak charging, time-of-use (ToU price-based charging. For practical analysis, we conduct simulations by considering the actual power system and driving patterns in South Korea. Simulation results show that the ToU price-based charging scheme exhibits better performance in terms of demand power over the other charging schemes.

  15. Do labour supply and demand curves exist?

    OpenAIRE

    Fleetwood, S.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to show that circumstantial and empirical evidence for the existence of labour supply and demand curves is at best inconclusive and at worst casts doubt on their existence. Because virtually all orthodox models of labour markets, simple and complex, are built upon the foundation stones of labour supply and demand curves, these models lack empirically supported foundations. Orthodox labour economists must, therefore, either provide stronger evidence or stop using...

  16. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  17. Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Camilo Paz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

  18. Effect of continuous versus on-demand treatment of ankylosing spondylitis with diclofenac over 2 years on radiographic progression of the spine: results from a randomised multicentre trial (ENRADAS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieper, Joachim; Listing, Joachim; Poddubnyy, Denis; Song, In-Ho; Hermann, Kay-Geert; Callhoff, Johanna; Syrbe, Uta; Braun, Jürgen; Rudwaleit, Martin

    2016-08-01

    To date, only a single controlled trial provided evidence that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) given continuously reduce radiographic progression compared with an on-demand therapy over 2 years in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). In the current study, we tested whether such an effect of NSAIDs could be confirmed in another randomised trial. Patients with AS were randomised for treatment with either continuous (150 mg/day) or on-demand diclofenac for 2 years. Tumour necrosis factor-blocker treatment was not allowed during the entire study period. The primary outcome was the difference in radiographic progression in the spine as measured by the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS) scored by two readers blinded to treatment arm and time point. 62 of 85 patients enrolled in the continuous arm and 60 of 82 enrolled in the on-demand arm completed the study. The mSASSS progression was numerically higher in the continuous group (1.28 (0.7 to 1.9) vs 0.79 (0.2 to 1.4)) (p=0.39). If only patients were analysed who were either C reactive protein positive or had syndesmophytes at baseline, there was again a higher radiographic progression in the continuous versus the on-demand group: 1.68 (0.7 to 2.6) vs 0.96 (0.0 to 1.9) and 2.11 (1.1 to 3.1) vs 0.95 (0.0 to 1.9), respectively. There was no difference between the two treatment groups regarding adverse events. In our study, continuous treatment with diclofenac over 2 years did not reduce radiographic progression compared with on-demand treatment in AS. EudraCt-no 2007-007637-39; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00715091. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  19. Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor

    2008-07-15

    Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

  20. Cycle-preserving extension of demand functions to new commodities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J.M. Peters (Hans); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractA method is given to extend demand functions to new commodities under preservation of the cycle number, i.e. the minimal length of a preference cycle revealed by the demand function. Thus, Gale's (Economica, N.S., 1960, 27, 348–354) demand function that shows that the weak axiom of revea

  1. Cycle-Preserving Extension of Demand Functions to New Commodities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, H.J.M.; Wakker, P.P.

    1996-01-01

    A method is given to extend demand functions to new commodities under preservation of the cycle number, i.e., the minimal length of a preference cycle revealed by the demand function. Thus Gale's (Economica, N.S., 1960, 27, 348-354) demand function that shows that the weak axiom of revealed preferen

  2. Public medical shows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walusinski, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    In the second half of the 19th century, Jean-Martin Charcot (1825-1893) became famous for the quality of his teaching and his innovative neurological discoveries, bringing many French and foreign students to Paris. A hunger for recognition, together with progressive and anticlerical ideals, led Charcot to invite writers, journalists, and politicians to his lessons, during which he presented the results of his work on hysteria. These events became public performances, for which physicians and patients were transformed into actors. Major newspapers ran accounts of these consultations, more like theatrical shows in some respects. The resultant enthusiasm prompted other physicians in Paris and throughout France to try and imitate them. We will compare the form and substance of Charcot's lessons with those given by Jules-Bernard Luys (1828-1897), Victor Dumontpallier (1826-1899), Ambroise-Auguste Liébault (1823-1904), Hippolyte Bernheim (1840-1919), Joseph Grasset (1849-1918), and Albert Pitres (1848-1928). We will also note their impact on contemporary cinema and theatre.

  3. Bioeconomic Analysis of Pesticide Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Moffitt, L. Joe; Farnsworth, Richard L.

    1981-01-01

    The ability of insects to develop resistance to specific pesticides affects pesticide demand. However, the affect of resistance on demand cannot be observed or measured. This analysis substitutes an expression for the unobserved resistance variable in a pesticide demand model and then illustrates the model's potential by estimating demand for DDT. To arrive at the expression characterizing the unobserved resistance variable a biological resistance model is constructed then incorporated into t...

  4. Rewarding yet demanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørkedal, S T B; Torsting, A M B; Møller, T

    2016-01-01

    AIM: The purpose of this study, by exploring client perspectives, was to achieve a better understanding of how people with schizophrenia experience an occupational therapy intervention designed to enable them to carry out meaningful occupations in the early phases of recovery. METHOD: A qualitative......, as demanding. Participants valued engaging in real-life occupations while anchoring new strategies but also the occupational therapist's role in dealing with failure. Participants felt the intervention assisted in their recovery process and enabled them to engage in meaningful occupations. CONCLUSION......: The study provided unique insight into how participants experienced a client-centred partnership with an occupational therapist in the early phases of recovery. The intervention was feasible and supported the participants' recovery process....

  5. CERN on show

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Last week I was in Ankara to discuss Turkish accession to CERN, and to take part in the opening of CERN’s main travelling exhibition at the Middle East Technical University. I was astonished at the crowds of people the exhibition drew in, and I’m told that it’s a similar story wherever it goes. Our smaller exhibition stands are also much in demand across our Member States.   You don’t have to travel to Ankara, however, to experience the same phenomenon – just go to Building 33 any time from Monday to Saturday and you’ll get the idea. But although we’ve worked hard over recent years to increase our capacity for visits to a level approaching 80,000 per year, there’s still a long waiting list. And that’s a problem. The success of the Visits Service rests on the goodwill of all the CERNois who volunteer to be guides, as well as those who graciously allow increasing numbers of visitors into their workplaces...

  6. Participatory Demand-supply Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaee, S.A.; Oey, M.A.; Nevejan, C.I.M.; Brazier, F.M.

    2015-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Participatory Demand-Supply (PDS) systems as socio-technical systems, this paper focuses on a new approach to coordinating demand and supply in dynamic environments. A participatory approach to demand and supply provides a new frame of reference for system design, for which

  7. Participatory Demand-supply Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaee, S.A.; Oey, M.A.; Nevejan, C.I.M.; Brazier, F.M.

    2015-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Participatory Demand-Supply (PDS) systems as socio-technical systems, this paper focuses on a new approach to coordinating demand and supply in dynamic environments. A participatory approach to demand and supply provides a new frame of reference for system design, for which

  8. Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Using cointegraion and vector error correction approach, we estimate India’s demand for foreign exchange reserves over the period 1983:1-2005:1. Our results establish that the ratio imports to GDP, the ratio of broad money to GDP,exchange rate flexibility and interest rate differential determine India’s long-run reserves demand function. Our empirical results show that reserve accumulation in India is highly sensitive to capital account vulnerability and less sensitive to its opportunity c...

  9. Water stress as a trigger of demand change: exploring the implications for drought planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.

    2015-12-01

    Drought in the Anthropocene is a function of both supply and demand. Despite its importance, demand is typically incorporated into planning models exogenously using a single scenario of demand change over time. Alternatively, demand is incorporated endogenously in hydro-economic models based on the assumption of rationality. However, actors are constrained by limited information and information processing capabilities, casting doubt on the rationality assumption. Though the risk of water shortage changes incrementally with demand growth and hydrologic change, significant shifts in management are punctuated and often linked to periods of stress. The observation of lasting decreases in per capita demands in a number of cities during periods of water stress prompts an alternate hypothesis: the occurrence of water stress increases the tendency of cities to promote and enforce efficient technologies and behaviors and the tendency of users to adopt them. We show the relevance of this hypothesis by building a model of a hypothetical surface water system to answer the following question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? The model links the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). Under SOP, demand is fulfilled unless available supply drops below demand; under HP, water releases are reduced in anticipation of a deficit to decrease the risk of a large shortfall. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decrease during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies.

  10. [Application of job demands-resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potocka, Adrianna; Waszkowska, Małgorzata

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model in the explanation of these phenomena. The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p job resources and job demands [F(1.474) = 4.004; F(1.474) = 4.166; p job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474) = 2.748; p job demands and personal resources [F(3.474) = 3.021; p job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1) in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001) or low (p = 0.0157); 2) when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001). The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees.

  11. System Dynamics Approach to Urban Water Demand Forecasting A Case Study of Tianjin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hongwei; ZHANG Xuehua; ZHANG Baoan

    2009-01-01

    A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system.which was characterized by multi.feedback and nonlinear interactions among system elements.As an example,Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years.The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 1O%.Furthermore,through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes presented in this paper.the forecasting results ofthe water resources demand ofTianiin was achieved based on sustainable utilization strategy of water resources.

  12. Demand for human allograft tissue in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakey, Jonathan R T; Mirbolooki, Mohammadreza; Rogers, Christina; Mohr, Jim

    2007-01-01

    There is relatively little known about the demand for allograft tissues in Canada. The Canadian Council for Donation and Transplantation (CCDT) is a national advisory body that undertook a comprehensive "market survey" to estimate surgical demand for human allograft tissues in Canada. The report "Demand for Human Allograft Tissue in Canada" reflects survey results sent to 5 prominent User Groups. User Groups were identified as orthopaedic surgeons; neurosurgeons; corneal transplant surgeons; plastic surgeons, specifically those at Canadian Burn Units; and cardiac surgeons (adult and paediatric surgery). The demand for allograft grafts was determined and then extrapolated across the total User Group and then increases in allograft tissue use over the next 1-2 years across User Groups were predicted. The overall response rate for the survey was 21.4%. It varied from a low of 19.6% for the orthopaedic survey to a high of 40.5% for the corneal survey. The estimated current demand for allograft tissue in Canada ranges from a low of 34,442 grafts per year to a high of 62,098 grafts per year. The predicted increase in use of allograft tissue over the next 1-2 year period would suggest that annual demand could rise to somewhere in the range of 42,589-72,210 grafts. The highest rated preferences (98% and 94%) were for accredited and Canadian tissue banks, respectively. This study represents a key step in addressing the paucity of information concerning the demand for allograft tissue in Canada.

  13. Dramatic Demand Reduction In The Desert Southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehm, Robert [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hsieh, Sean [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Lee, Joon [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Baghzouz, Yahia [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Cross, Andrew [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Chatterjee, Sarah [NV Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2015-07-06

    adjusting settings. In a sense the customer can choose between greater comfort and greater money savings during demand response circumstances. Finally a battery application was to be considered. Initially it was thought that a large battery (probably a sodium-sulfur type) would be installed. However, after the contract was awarded, it was determined that a single, centrally-located battery system would not be appropriate for many reasons, including that with the build out plan there would not be any location to put it. The price had risen substantially since the budget for the project was put together. Also, that type of battery has to be kept hot all the time, but its use was only sought for summer operation. Hence, individual house batteries would be used, and these are discussed at the end of this report. Many aspects of the energy use for climate control in selected houses were monitored before residents moved in. This was done both to understand the magnitude of the energy flows but also to have data that could be compared to the computer simulations. The latter would be used to evaluate various aspects of our plan. It was found that good agreement existed between actual energy use and computed energy use. Hence, various studies were performed via simulations. Performance simulations showed the impact on peak energy usage between a code built house of same size and shape compared to the Villa Trieste homes with and without the PV arrays on the latter. Computations were also used to understand the effect of varying orientations of the houses in this typical housing development, including the effect of PV electrical generation. Energy conservation features of the Villa Trieste homes decreased the energy use during peak times (as well as all others), but the resulting decreased peak occurred at about the same time as the code-built houses. Consideration of the PV generation decreases the grid energy use further during daylight hours, but did not extend long enough many

  14. Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yong

    optimization problem when the objective is to minimize the expected total cost and discomfort, then since the decision maker is likely to be risk-averse, and she wants to protect herself from price spikes, we study the robust optimization problem to address the risk-aversion of the decision maker. We conduct numerical studies to evaluate the price of robustness. Next, we present a detailed model that manages multiple types of flexible demand in the absence of knowledge regarding the distributions of related stochastic processes. Specifically, we consider the case in which time-varying prices with general structures are offered to users, and an energy management system for each household makes optimal energy usage, storage, and trading decisions according to the preferences of users. Because of the uncertainties associated with electricity prices, local generation, and the arrival processes of demand, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model, and outline a novel and tractable ADP approach to overcome the curses of dimensionality. Then, we perform numerical studies, whose results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ADP approach. At last, we propose another approximation approach based on Q-learning. In addition, we also develop another decentralization-based heuristic. Both the Q-learning approach and the heuristic make necessary assumptions on the knowledge of information, and each of them has unique advantages. We conduct numerical studies on a testing problem. The simulation results show that both the Q-learning and the decentralization based heuristic approaches work well. Lastly, we conclude the paper with some discussions on future extension directions.

  15. The Great Cometary Show

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    The ESO Very Large Telescope Interferometer, which allows astronomers to scrutinise objects with a precision equivalent to that of a 130-m telescope, is proving itself an unequalled success every day. One of the latest instruments installed, AMBER, has led to a flurry of scientific results, an anthology of which is being published this week as special features in the research journal Astronomy & Astrophysics. ESO PR Photo 06a/07 ESO PR Photo 06a/07 The AMBER Instrument "With its unique capabilities, the VLT Interferometer (VLTI) has created itself a niche in which it provide answers to many astronomical questions, from the shape of stars, to discs around stars, to the surroundings of the supermassive black holes in active galaxies," says Jorge Melnick (ESO), the VLT Project Scientist. The VLTI has led to 55 scientific papers already and is in fact producing more than half of the interferometric results worldwide. "With the capability of AMBER to combine up to three of the 8.2-m VLT Unit Telescopes, we can really achieve what nobody else can do," added Fabien Malbet, from the LAOG (France) and the AMBER Project Scientist. Eleven articles will appear this week in Astronomy & Astrophysics' special AMBER section. Three of them describe the unique instrument, while the other eight reveal completely new results about the early and late stages in the life of stars. ESO PR Photo 06b/07 ESO PR Photo 06b/07 The Inner Winds of Eta Carinae The first results presented in this issue cover various fields of stellar and circumstellar physics. Two papers deal with very young solar-like stars, offering new information about the geometry of the surrounding discs and associated outflowing winds. Other articles are devoted to the study of hot active stars of particular interest: Alpha Arae, Kappa Canis Majoris, and CPD -57o2874. They provide new, precise information about their rotating gas envelopes. An important new result concerns the enigmatic object Eta Carinae. Using AMBER with

  16. The Moderating Effect of Success Importance on the Relationship Between Listening Demand and Listening Effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Michael

    2016-01-01

    A common element of the psychophysiological research on listening effort is the focus on listening demand as determinant of effort. The article discusses preceding studies and theorizing on effort to show that the link between listening demand and listening effort is moderated by various variables. Moreover, I will present a recent study that examined the joint effect of listening demand and success importance on effort-related cardiovascular reactivity in an auditory discrimination task. Results for pre-ejection period reactivity-an indicator of sympathetic activity-supported the hypothesis that the relationship between listening demand and listening effort is moderated by other variables: Pre-ejection period reactivity was higher in the high-demand-high-success-importance condition than in the other three conditions. This new finding as well as the findings of previous research on effort suggest that a broader perspective on the determinants of listening effort is warranted.

  17. Manufacturer-supplier cooperative inventory model for deteriorating item with trapezoidal type demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Narayan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a Supply Chain System for deteriorating items in which a supplier supplies a manufacturer with raw material, and the manufacturer produces the finished goods. Demand rate is assumed to be time-sensitive in nature (Trapezoidal type, which allows three-phase variation in demand, and production rate is demand dependent. Our adoption of trapezoidal type demand reflects a real market demand for newly launched product. We show that the total cost function is convex. With the convexity, a simple solution algorithm is presented to determine the optimal order quantity and optimal cycle time of the total cost function. Numerical examples are given and the results are discussed.

  18. Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

    OpenAIRE

    Freitas, Miguel Lebre de; Veiga, Francisco José

    2006-01-01

    We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimising model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case Currency Substitution decisions and Asset Substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency subst...

  19. Functional Outcomes in High-function-demand patients after total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano Calderón, Santiago A; Shen, Jianhua; Doumato, Diana F; Zelicof, Steven

    2012-05-01

    Total knee arthroplasty is a safe last-resort treatment for osteoarthritis that has excellent results in low-function-demand elderly patients. Current implants offer the same results in high-function-demand patients. However, supportive data do not exist.One-year Krackow Activity Scores (KAS) of 552 patients from 2 prospective studies were used to retrospectively determine low- and high-function-demand populations. Low function demand was defined as a KAS between 1 and 9 points, and high function demand was defined as a KAS between 10 and 18 points. Patients were assessed preoperatively and at 6 weeks, 3 months, and 1 and 2 years postoperatively per the Knee Society Score-function domain, KAS, SF-36, range of motion, and pain. Comparability between groups was tested for demographics and comorbidities.Both groups showed significant improvement in function, range of motion, and pain 2 years postoperatively. High-function-demand patients had comparable improvement in function compared with low-function-demand patients. Excellent function can be achieved in high-function-demand patients.

  20. Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Medium and Long Term Total Demand of Grain and Economic Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Yang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available With the advance of China’s urbanization, industrialization accelerated and extensions of agricultural, our grain demand changes, then it has a important sense for the forecast of total food demanded during 2014 to 2030 involves China’s food security, social stability and rapid development. In this study, we use time series model to forecast the rural and urban residents’ per capita food consumption in China during 2020 to 2030, then we combines it with population growth and urbanization-related data of the total food demanded to forecast Chinese total demands in 2030. The results showed that the total demand of food has an increasing trend, as it in 2030, the total grain demands was 627.5 million t, food consumption will be reduced and fodder grain consumption will continue to increase. According to this study, we have analyzed the factors affecting changes in demand for food and it came the result that the food demand is influenced interaction with China’s economic structure.

  1. Prediction of Low Cost Housing Demand in Malaysia Using ARIMA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainun N. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Among the key challenges in construction industry sector faces are matching supply of and demand for affordable housing. It is very crucial to predict low-cost housing demand to match the demand and supply so that the government can plan the allocation of low cost housing based on the demand. In Johor, housing provision is very crucial due to urbanization. The supply of houses seems to be swamping the demand for luxury condos and houses especially in Johor Bharu. Thus the aim of this study is to predict low-cost housing demand in Johor, Malaysia using ARIMA model. Time series data on low-cost housing demand have been converted to Ln before develop the model. The actual data and forecasted data will be compared and validate using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE. After that, the results using ARIMA method will be compared with ANN method. The results show that MAPE analysis for ARIMA is 15.39% while ANN is 18.27%. It can be conclude that ARIMA model can forecast low cost housing demand in Johor quite good.

  2. Showing Value (Editorial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Koufogiannakis

    2009-06-01

    librarians on student achievement. Todd notes, “If we do not show value, we will not have a future. Evidence-based practice is not about the survival of school librarians, it’s about the survival of our students” (40. In this issue we feature school libraries and their connection to evidence based practice. Former Editor-in-Chief, Lindsay Glynn, began putting the wheels in motion for this feature almost a year ago. She invited Carol Gordon and Ross Todd to act as guest editors of the section, drawing upon their contacts and previous work in this field. The result is an issue with five feature articles exploring different aspects of the connection between school libraries and evidence based practice, from the theoretical to the practical. In addition, there is a thought-provoking Commentary by David Loertscher, asking whether we need the evolutionary model of evidence based practice, or something more revolutionary!In addition to the Feature section, we have a well-rounded issue with articles on the topics of library human resources, and the development of a scholars’ portal. As well, there are a record 10 evidence summaries and our educational EBL101 column. I hope there is something for everyone in this issue of EBLIP – enjoy, and see you soon in Stockholm!

  3. Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-04-01

    Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2005-01-01

    Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... as the basis for measurement. This paper presents the case against both objections. First, if one is interested in learning whether decisions about building transport infrastructure are based on reliable information, then it is exactly the traffic forecasted at the time of making the decision to build...... in travel demand forecasts are likely to be conservatively biased, i.e., accuracy in travel demand forecasts estimated from such samples would likely be higher than accuracy in travel demand forecasts in the project population. This bias must be taken into account when interpreting the results from...

  5. The impact of task demand on visual word recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J; Zevin, J

    2014-07-11

    The left occipitotemporal cortex has been found sensitive to the hierarchy of increasingly complex features in visually presented words, from individual letters to bigrams and morphemes. However, whether this sensitivity is a stable property of the brain regions engaged by word recognition is still unclear. To address the issue, the current study investigated whether different task demands modify this sensitivity. Participants viewed real English words and stimuli with hierarchical word-likeness while performing a lexical decision task (i.e., to decide whether each presented stimulus is a real word) and a symbol detection task. General linear model and independent component analysis indicated strong activation in the fronto-parietal and temporal regions during the two tasks. Furthermore, the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula showed significant interaction effects between task demand and stimulus type in the pseudoword condition. The occipitotemporal cortex showed strong main effects for task demand and stimulus type, but no sensitivity to the hierarchical word-likeness was found. These results suggest that different task demands on semantic, phonological and orthographic processes can influence the involvement of the relevant regions during visual word recognition. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Economic Analysis of Water Demand in Greenhouses of Khash Township

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Shahraki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study was to investigate the way of affecting of water in production of cucumber. From aspect of econometrics, mutual relationships of production function and expenses have been analysed in which Translog cost function has been used. This function has been estimated using the conditional input demand functions, the shefard theorem, chemical fertilizer, animal fertilizer, labour force, seed, and pesticide in the framework of a system of equations by taking advantage of the irrelevant regression method. Applied inputs is for 151 cucumber Beneficiaries in Khash in farming year of 2011-12 that insider and crossing tendency of input demand for this product has been investigated through collecting questionnaires and using obtained coefficients. The results show that the translog cost model is a good fit compared to the data of research. According to the reviews, demand for water has a minor Insidersuccession tendency more than one which shows possible stretch of demand function rather than the price of the inputs. Hence, appropriate pricing policies can be used to take a positive step in preventing the extreme usage of this input and directing beneficiaries for optimum use of these inputs.

  7. Positional demands of professional rugby.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Angus; Draper, Nick; Lewis, John; Gieseg, Steven P; Gill, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Rugby union is a physically intense intermittent sport coupled with high force collisions. Each position within a team has specific requirements which are typically based on speed, size and skill. The aim of this study was to investigate the contemporary demands of each position and whether they can explain changes in psychophysiological stress. Urine and saliva samples were collected before and after five selected Super 15 rugby games from 37 players. Total neopterin (NP), cortisol and immunoglobulin A were analysed by SCX-high performance liquid chromatography and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Global positioning system software provided distance data, while live video analysis provided impact data. All contemporary demands were analysed as events per minute of game time. Forwards were involved in more total impacts, tackles and rucks compared to backs (p cortisol and sIgA. The results indicate distance covered and number of impacts per minute of game time is position-dependent whereas changes in psychophysiological stress are independent. This information can be used to adapt training and recovery interventions to better prepare each position based on the physical requirements of the game.

  8. Study of forecasting technique of power demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, T.Y. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-04-01

    Long-term forecast of power and energy demand become an important base of investment plan of the energy supply sector, and a study based on value data is indispensable since the expansion of energy supply requires a long construction period and a lot of investment capital. Total estimated power and energy demand of the whole economy is known to have considerable relationship with macroeconomics factors. This study reviews the Kalman filter technique and abnormal time series analysis technique which is useful in analyzing energy and macroeconomics data taking the form of pre-tallied time series data. Based on these, power demand and energy demand are estimated using real data and the most reliable technique, and long-term forecast of power and energy demand is tried up to year 2015 based on the forecasted values. It should be noted that power and energy demand of Korea shows the structurally-changing behavior based on the present while the forecast based on past data involves an assumption naturally that the trend continues from the past to the present. 15 refs., 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  9. Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Szozda

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand planning process accuracy. Later, an overview of some recent developments in the analyzed research area is provided. Results: Based on the literature review, there is described the defined factors impact on the accuracy of demand plan in each echelon for case companies. There are considered three cases. The examples illustrate supply chains of different manufacturing companies. The focus is placed on demand planning across the supply chains. The issue of determining the accuracy of future sales plans in each echelon of supply chains and factors affecting it are raised. Taking into account the case companies demand planning process analyses, there are defined possible quality measures, that are possible to be used when forecasting the customer demand. Conclusions: One of the most important and difficult planning area in the companies is becoming planning demand. Errors in planning are reflected not just in the business resource planning but also in the entire supply chain. Presented cases show that many factors affect the proper demand planning process in the supply chain, like e.g.  information technologies, lead-time, or number of supplied materials. As it can be seen from the case studies, the model of collecting information from the market plays an important role in the demand planning process.

  10. Energy demand for elimination of organic micropollutants in municipal wastewater treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousel, Danièle; Palmowski, Laurence; Pinnekamp, Johannes

    2017-01-01

    Organic micropollutants (OMP), e.g. pharmaceuticals and household/industrial chemicals, are not fully eliminated in state-of-the-art municipal wastewater treatment plants and can potentially harm the aquatic environment. Therefore, several pilot and large-scale investigations on the elimination of organic micropollutants have taken place in recent years. Based on the present findings, the most efficient treatment steps to eliminate organic micropollutants have proven to be ozonation, adsorption on powdered activated carbon (PAC), or filtration through granular activated carbon (GAC). Yet a further treatment step implies an increase in energy demand of the wastewater treatment plant, which has to be considered along with OMP elimination. To this aim, data on energy demand of ten large-scale municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) with processes for OMP elimination was collected and analyzed. Moreover, calculations on energy demand beyond the WWTP for production and transport of ancillary materials were performed to assess the cumulative energy demand of the processes. An assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions of the processes was achieved, which shall facilitate future life cycle analyses. The results show that energy demand of ozonation at the wastewater treatment plant is dependent upon the ozone dosage and is significantly higher than energy demand of PAC addition or GAC filtration (2 to 4 times higher without consideration of delivery heads). Despite uncertainties regarding the energy demand for production of activated carbon, it could be shown that the cumulative energy demand of adsorption steps is significantly higher than the energy demand at the WWTP. Using reactivated GAC can lead to energy and greenhouse gas emissions savings compared to using fresh GAC/PAC. Moreover, energy demand is always plant-specific and depends on different factors (delivery heads, existing filtration or post-treatment etc.). Since processes for elimination of organic

  11. Time of Day and Day of Week Trends in EMS Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantwell, Kate; Morgans, Amee; Smith, Karen; Livingston, Michael; Spelman, Tim; Dietze, Paul

    2015-01-01

    We examined temporal variations in overall Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand, as well as medical and trauma cases separately. We analyzed cases according to time of day and day of week to determine whether population level demand demonstrates temporal patterns that will increase baseline knowledge for EMS planning. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Ambulance Victoria data warehouse covering the period 2008-2011. We included all cases of EMS attendance which resulted in 1,203,803 cases for review. Data elements comprised age, gender, date and time of call to the EMS emergency number along with the clinical condition of the patient. We employed Poisson regression to analyze case numbers and trigonometric regression to quantify distribution patterns. EMS demand exhibited a bimodal distribution with the highest peak at 10:00 and a second smaller peak at 19:00. The highest number of cases occurred on Fridays, and the lowest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. However, the distribution of cases throughout the day differed by day of week. Distribution patterns on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays differed significantly from the rest of the week (p demand distribution patterns reveal differences that can be masked in aggregate data. Day of week EMS demand distribution patterns showed not only which days have differences in demand but the times of day at which the demand changes. Patterns differed by case type as well. These differences in distribution are important for EMS demand planning. Increased understanding of EMS demand patterns is imperative in a climate of ever-increasing demand and fiscal constraints. Further research is needed into the effect of age and case type on EMS demand.

  12. Estimating mobile traffic demand using Twitter

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, B.; Guo, W.; Chen, B.; Yang, G.; Zhang, J

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the authors show that structured social\\ud media data can act as an accurate predictor for wireless data\\ud demand patterns at a high spatial-temporal resolution. A casestudy\\ud is performed on Greater London covering a 5000km2\\ud area.\\ud The data used includes over 0.6 million geo-tagged Twitter data,\\ud over 1 million mobile phone data demand records, and UK census\\ud data. The analysis shows that social media activity (Tweets/s n)\\ud can accurately predict the long-term tra...

  13. Heterogeneous Consumers, Demand Regimes, Monetary Policy and Equilibrium Determinacy

    OpenAIRE

    Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Rossi, Lorenza

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy in presence of heterogeneous consumers. We study the effectiveness (quantitative effects) of monetary policy and equilibrium determinacy properties of a New Keynesian DSGE model where a fraction of households cannot smooth consumption. We show that two-demand regimes can emerge (according to the “slope” of IS curve) and that the main unconventional results, stressed by recent literature, only hold in the unconventional case of an IS curve...

  14. Pension Demand and Utility: The Life Annuity Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Tomáš Cipra

    2014-01-01

    This paper shows by means of the concept of utility that annuitization through life annui-ties or a pension can be an efficient instrument for the economic assurance of seniors. Various quantitative arguments are presented supporting this statement (e.g. annuity equivalent wealth [AEW] is calculated using Czech data). In conclusion, some practical arguments are mentioned regarding why the real demand on life annuities contradicts this result so that a so-called annuity puzzle arises in pensio...

  15. The Health Show

    OpenAIRE

    Swann, David

    2011-01-01

    Dr David Swann interviewed on The Health Show, Series 1, Episode 5, 2011 for BBC World about the award-winning 21st Century Nursing Bag. BBC World News reaches 241million people every week, available in 296 million homes, 1.8 million hotel rooms and has the highest average viewership on a weekday of any international news channel. The Health Show is a new 26-part series for BBC World News covering the most important news stories from around the world.

  16. Research on Rural Consumer Demand in Hebei Province Based on Principal Component Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    By selecting the time sequence data concerning influencing factors of rural consumer demand in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2010,this paper uses the principal component analysis method in multiplex econometric statistical analysis,constructs the principal component of consumer demand in Hebei Province,conducts regression on the dependent variable of consumer spending per capita in Hebei Province and the principal component of consumer demand so as to get principal component regression,and then conducts quantitative and qualitative analysis on the principal component.The results show that total output value per capita (yuan),employment rate,and income gap,are correlative with rural residents’ consumer demand in Hebei Province positively;consumer price index,upbringing ratio of children,and one-year interest rate are correlative with rural residents’ consumer demand in Hebei Province negatively;the ratio of supporting the elderly and medical care spending per capita are correlative with rural residents’ consumer demand in Hebei Province positively.The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote residents’ consumer demand in Hebei Province as follows:develop county economy in Hebei Province and increase rural residents’ consumer demand;use industry to support agriculture and coordinate urban-rural development;improve rural medical care and health system and resolve actual difficulties of the masses.

  17. Advanced Controls and Communications for Demand Response andEnergy Efficiency in Commercial Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Hansen, David

    2006-01-17

    Commercial buildings account for a large portion of summer peak demand. Research results show that there is significant potential to reduce peak demand in commercial buildings through advanced control technologies and strategies. However, a better understanding of commercial building's contribution to peak demand and the use of energy management and control systems is required to develop this demand response resource to its full potential. This paper discusses recent research results and new opportunities for advanced building control systems to provide demand response (DR) to improve electricity markets and reduce electric grid problems. The main focus of this paper is the role of new and existing control systems for HVAC and lighting in commercial buildings. A demand-side management framework from building operations perspective with three main features: daily energy efficiency, daily peak load management and event driven, dynamic demand response is presented. A general description of DR, its benefits, and nationwide potential in commercial buildings is outlined. Case studies involving energy management and control systems and DR savings opportunities are presented. The paper also describes results from three years of research in California to automate DR in buildings. Case study results and research on advanced buildings systems in New York are also presented.

  18. Impact of NAFTA on the Preference for Meat Consumption in USA: An Inverse Demand System Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sooriyakumar Krishnapillai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impacts of NAFTA on meat demand and develops an inverse demand system model for meat to analyze price and scale flexibility. The inverse demand system model for meat products suggests that, in average, NAFTA had negative impact on the preference for beef consumption. The availability of low quality beef and the concern over infectious disease through the imported beef might be the reasons for this decline on the preference for beef consumption. Results show that all meats are substitutes to each other and proportionate increase in all meats reduce the price for meats.

  19. [Demand-Control model and occupational stress among nursing professionals: integrative review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Denise Rodrigues Costa

    2013-01-01

    The Demand Control model aims to evaluate the occupational stress. This study aimed to know, through an integrative review of the literature, the scientific production about the Demand Control Model to investigation occupational stress among nursing professionals from 2000 to 2011.Of the 16 selected studies, five were published in 2009. Of these studies, 56.25% assessed the Demand and Control dimensions and their correlations with workers' health problems; 37.5% of these studies were related with mental health. The results showed a lack of national publications. We recommend that authors conduct experimental studies to reduce the occupational stress for better conditions of workers' mental health.

  20. Attentional Demands in the Execution Phase of Curling in Novices and Experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Véronique Shank

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the attentional demands of a curling delivery using a dual-task procedure. Skilled and novice curlers were asked to perform take outs and draws while attentional demands were measured using reaction time (RT in the different phases of the throw. Results showed attentional demands for the draw and take out were highest at the beginning of the delivery. Compared to the draw, a significant rise of RT was shown at the end of the take out shot. Shot success was significantly higher for the take out condition in expert compared to novice curlers.

  1. Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Yang, Sheng; Chang, Dongfeng

    2017-01-01

    Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-price elasticities for different vehicle categories range from −1.215 to −0.459 (by AIDS) and from −1.399 to −0.369 (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions (CO, NOx and PM2.5) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the first attempt to address how oil price changes influence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses. PMID:28257076

  2. The Relationship between Gender Stereotypes, Sense of Power, and Demographic Variables with the Cycle of Demand-Withdrawal Marital Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    somayeh shahmoradi

    2014-04-01

    The regression results showed that gender stereotypes, sense of power and number of children were all significant predictors for demand/withdraw pattern. The correlation results showed that increasing in stereotypical thinking and the number of children can lead to an increase in the probability of demand/withdraw cycle. Also, more sense of power has a positive correlation with the “withdrawal pattern” and less sense of power has a positive correlation with the “demand pattern”. The results demonstrate that the variables which were considered in the analysis of the cycle in this research are important and can help relevant agents to provide opportunities for improving couple relationships.

  3. Estimating International Tourism Demand to Spain Separately by the Major Source Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Marcos Alvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; Mª Soledad Otero-Giraldez

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to estimate international tourism demand to Spain separately by major source markets (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and The Netherlands) that represent 67% of the international tourism to Spain. In order to investigate how the tourism demand reacts to price and income changes, we apply the bounds testing approach to cointegration and construct confidence intervals using the bootstrap technique. The results show differences in tourism behavior depending ...

  4. THE IMPACT OF HACCP ON FACTOR DEMAND AND OUTPUT SUPPLY ELASTICITIES OF RED MEAT

    OpenAIRE

    Nganje, William E.; Mazzocco, Michael A.

    2003-01-01

    This study uses firm-level data during the hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) implementation period (1997 - 2000) to analyze the impact of HACCP on input demand and output supply elasticities of firms in the red meat industry and derive implications for efficiency and moral hazard issues associated with the implementation of HACCP systems. The results show that HACCP causes factor demand for labor, material, and capital to be less inelastic while the elasticity of output supply di...

  5. Investigating the Effects of Assembly Order on the Performance in Relation to Cognitive and Physical Demands Under Takt Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakeel Ahmed Shaikh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Assembly line operations generally involve physical and cognitive demanding tasks. Simultaneous performance under physical and cognitive demanding tasks may create physical and mental stresses. A within subjects study was carried out to determine the effects of assembly levels (variable assembly and consistent assembly on working conditions. Nine participants participated in a study and performed 8 conditions. The objective of the study was to determine the relation between physical and cognitive demands in a simulated task involving simultaneous performance of physical (fastening nuts and bolts and cognitive (code matching with secondary task of memorizing the code demanding task. Results showed the significant effects of assembly order (consisted of the concurrent performance of physically and cognitively demanding task on the working conditions. Quality of performance was affected by variable assembly order, high mental demand and above shoulder height

  6. Do Job Demands of Chinese Manufacturing Employees Predict Positive or Negative Outcomes? A Test of Competing Hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Janelle H; Sinclair, Robert R; Shi, Junqi; Wang, Mo

    2015-12-01

    Karasek's job demands-control (JDC) model posits that job control can buffer against the harmful effects of demands experienced by employees. A large volume of JDC research has obtained support for the main effects of demands and control, but not the interactive effects. Recent research on the challenge-hindrance stressors framework, however, found that work stressors may not always be deleterious, suggesting alternative hypotheses about the effects of demands and control. The present study therefore examined competing hypotheses concerning the effects of job demands on occupational health outcomes. Using a sample of 316 employees in a Chinese manufacturing company, we found that, consistent with the challenge-hindrance framework, production demands were challenge stressors associated with favourable outcomes (i.e. job satisfaction and psychological well-being). In addition, results showed that the interactive role of job control depended on the nature of outcome variables. Future recommendations and implications of findings are discussed.

  7. A Fashion Show

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    <正>Story: The yearly fashion show day.The children take turns to walk on the stage and show the class their favorite clothes.Now it’s Joe’s and Phoebe’s turn.Joe walks on the stage and says,“My shorts are blue.Do you like my blue shorts?”On the other side of the stage, Phoebe is wearing her favorite pink skirt.“My skirt is pink.Do you like my pink skirt?”asks

  8. North American oil demand outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, M.B. [National Economic Research Associates, White Plains, NY (United States)

    1995-11-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC`s pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  9. An integrated communications demand model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubleday, C. F.

    1980-11-01

    A computer model of communications demand is being developed to permit dynamic simulations of the long-term evolution of demand for communications media in the U.K. to be made under alternative assumptions about social, economic and technological trends in British Telecom's business environment. The context and objectives of the project and the potential uses of the model are reviewed, and four key concepts in the demand for communications media, around which the model is being structured are discussed: (1) the generation of communications demand; (2) substitution between media; (3) technological convergence; and (4) competition. Two outline perspectives on the model itself are given.

  10. On not showing scalps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marselis, Randi Lorenz

    2016-01-01

    proposed by Janet Marstine, the editor of the Routledge Companion to Museum Ethics, I show how the museum succeeded in engaging users in questions of museum ethics. However, this specific debate on human remains in museums developed into an encounter between a global, museological discourse...

  11. Honored Teacher Shows Commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratte, Kathy

    1987-01-01

    Part of the acceptance speech of the 1985 National Council for the Social Studies Teacher of the Year, this article describes the censorship experience of this honored social studies teacher. The incident involved the showing of a videotape version of the feature film entitled "The Seduction of Joe Tynan." (JDH)

  12. A Visionary Show

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Seduction. Distinction. Relax. Pulsation. These are the "style universes" on display at Première Vision, heralded as "The World’s Premiere Fabric Show." Started more than 35 years ago by 15 French weavers, Première Vision has expanded beyond its

  13. Honored Teacher Shows Commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratte, Kathy

    1987-01-01

    Part of the acceptance speech of the 1985 National Council for the Social Studies Teacher of the Year, this article describes the censorship experience of this honored social studies teacher. The incident involved the showing of a videotape version of the feature film entitled "The Seduction of Joe Tynan." (JDH)

  14. Modeling the effects of demand response on generation expansion planning in restructured power systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mahdi SAMADI; Mohammad Hossein JAVIDI; Mohammad Sadegh GHAZIZADEH

    2013-01-01

    Demand response is becoming a promising field of study in operation and planning of restructured power systems. More attention has recently been paid to demand response programs. Customers can contribute to the operation of power sys-tems by deployment demand response. The growth of customers’ participation in such programs may affect the planning of power systems. Therefore, it seems necessary to consider the effects of demand response in planning approaches. In this paper, the impact of demand responsiveness on decision making in generation expansion planning is modeled. Avoidance or deferment in installation of new generating units is comprehensively investigated and evaluated by introducing a new simple index. The effects of demand responsiveness are studied from the points of view of both customers and generation companies. The pro-posed model has been applied to a modified IEEE 30-bus system and the results of the study are discussed. Simulation results show that reducing just 3%of the customers’ demand (due to price elasticity) may result in a benefit of about 10%for customers in the long term.

  15. Utilizing simulation to evaluate production line performance under varying demand conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas McDonald

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Determining how a new production cell will function is problematic and can lead to disastrous results if done incorrectly. Discrete-event simulation can provide information on how a line will function before, during, and after the line is in operation. A simulation model can also provide a visual animation of the line to see how product will flow through the line. This paper discusses the development and analysis of a simulation model of a new manufacturing line. The manufacturing cell is a new motor assembly cell. An analysis of the capability of the line for varying demand levels was conducted for the two main motor types produced on the line. An ARENA® simulation model was developed, verified, and validated to determine the daily production and potential problem areas for the various demand levels. The results show that at all but one demand level, the line is capable of producing to within one unit of customer demand if the required number of workers is present. At the highest demand level, the simulation results suggest that the line is not capable of meeting demand. Additional analysis indicates that multiple workstations could prove problematic with minor fluctuations in demand. Problematic workstations were identified for each assembly area and for the line as a whole.

  16. Intermittent Demand Forecasting in a Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chen-Yang; Chiang, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Meng-Yin

    2016-10-01

    Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions.

  17. Dramatic Demand Reduction In The Desert Southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehm, Robert [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hsieh, Sean [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Lee, Joon [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Baghzouz, Yahia [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Cross, Andrew [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Chatterjee, Sarah [NV Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2015-07-06

    adjusting settings. In a sense the customer can choose between greater comfort and greater money savings during demand response circumstances. Finally a battery application was to be considered. Initially it was thought that a large battery (probably a sodium-sulfur type) would be installed. However, after the contract was awarded, it was determined that a single, centrally-located battery system would not be appropriate for many reasons, including that with the build out plan there would not be any location to put it. The price had risen substantially since the budget for the project was put together. Also, that type of battery has to be kept hot all the time, but its use was only sought for summer operation. Hence, individual house batteries would be used, and these are discussed at the end of this report. Many aspects of the energy use for climate control in selected houses were monitored before residents moved in. This was done both to understand the magnitude of the energy flows but also to have data that could be compared to the computer simulations. The latter would be used to evaluate various aspects of our plan. It was found that good agreement existed between actual energy use and computed energy use. Hence, various studies were performed via simulations. Performance simulations showed the impact on peak energy usage between a code built house of same size and shape compared to the Villa Trieste homes with and without the PV arrays on the latter. Computations were also used to understand the effect of varying orientations of the houses in this typical housing development, including the effect of PV electrical generation. Energy conservation features of the Villa Trieste homes decreased the energy use during peak times (as well as all others), but the resulting decreased peak occurred at about the same time as the code-built houses. Consideration of the PV generation decreases the grid energy use further during daylight hours, but did not extend long enough many

  18. Shanghai Shows Its Heart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The city known as China’s economic powerhouse showed a more caring face as host of the Special Olympic Games Between October 2 and 11,the Special Olympics Summer Games were hosted in Shanghai,the first time the 40-year-old athletic com- petition for people with intellectual disabilities came to a developing country. This Special Olympics was also larger than all previous games in temps of the number of athletes.

  19. Dietary fiber showed no preventive effect against colon and rectal cancers in Japanese with low fat intake: an analysis from the results of nutrition surveys from 23 Japanese prefectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugawara Kazuo

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since Fuchs' report in 1999, the reported protective effect of dietary fiber from colorectal carcinogenesis has led many researchers to question its real benefit. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between diet, especially dietary fiber and fat and colorectal cancer in Japan. Methods A multiple regression analysis (using the stepwise variable selection method was performed using the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs of colon and rectal cancer in 23 Japanese prefectures as objective variables and dietary fiber, nutrients and food groups as explanatory variables. Results As for colon cancer, the standardized partial correlation coefficients were positively significant for fat (1,13, P = 0.000, seaweeds (0.41, P = 0.026 and beans (0.45, P = 0.017 and were negatively significant for vitamin A (-0.63, P = 0.003, vitamin C (-0.42, P = 0.019 and yellow-green vegetables (-0.37, P = 0.046. For rectal cancer, the standardized partial correlation coefficient in fat (0.60, P = 0.002 was positively significant. Dietary fiber was not found to have a significant relationship with either colon or rectal cancers. Conclusions This study failed to show any protective effect of dietary fiber in subjects with a low fat intake (Japanese in this analysis, which supports Fuchs' findings in subjects with a high fat intake (US Americans.

  20. Residential water demand with endogenous pricing: The Canadian Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynaud, Arnaud; Renzetti, Steven; Villeneuve, Michel

    2005-11-01

    In this paper, we show that the rate structure endogeneity may result in a misspecification of the residential water demand function. We propose to solve this endogeneity problem by estimating a probabilistic model describing how water rates are chosen by local communities. This model is estimated on a sample of Canadian local communities. We first show that the pricing structure choice reflects efficiency considerations, equity concerns, and, in some cases, a strategy of price discrimination across consumers by Canadian communities. Hence estimating the residential water demand without taking into account the pricing structures' endogeneity leads to a biased estimation of price and income elasticities. We also demonstrate that the pricing structure per se plays a significant role in influencing price responsiveness of Canadian residential consumers.

  1. Daily Job Demands and Employee Work Engagement: The Role of Daily Transformational Leadership Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breevaart, Kimberley; Bakker, Arnold B

    2017-03-30

    Using job demands-resources (JD-R) theory, the present study integrates the challenge stressor-hindrance stressor framework and leadership theory to investigate the relationship between daily transformational leadership behavior and employee work engagement. We hypothesized that daily transformational leadership behavior (a) sustains employee work engagement on days characterized by high challenge job demands, and (b) protects work engagement on days characterized by high hindrance job demands. Teachers filled out a short online questionnaire at the end of each workday during a 2-week period (N = 271 × 5.68 days = 1539). Results of latent moderated structural equation modeling showed that teachers' daily challenge demands (workload and cognitive demands) had a positive relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was high (vs. low). In addition, teachers' daily hindrance demands (role-conflict, but not family to work conflict) had a negative relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was low (vs. high). These findings show that the function of transformational leadership behavior changes from day to day, and depends on the type of job demand. We discuss the practical and theoretical implications of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  3. Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O Broin, Eoin

    2012-11-01

    In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and

  4. Demand Response in Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.

    2014-01-01

    In recent decades, moves toward higher integration of Renewable Energy Resources have called for fundamental changes in both the planning and operation of the overall power grid. One such change is the incorporation of Demand Response (DR), the process by which consumers can adjust their demand i...

  5. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &

  6. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerout

  7. CAREER GUIDE FOR DEMAND OCCUPATIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, E.R.; WELCH, JOHN L.

    THIS PUBLICATION UPDATES THE "CAREER GUIDE FOR DEMAND OCCUPATIONS" PUBLISHED IN 1959 AND PROVIDES COUNSELORS WITH INFORMATION ABOUT OCCUPATIONS IN DEMAND IN MANY AREAS WHICH REQUIRE PREEMPLOYMENT TRAINING. IT PRESENTS, IN COLUMN FORM, THE EDUCATION AND OTHER TRAINING USUALLY REQUIRED BY EMPLOYERS, HIGH SCHOOL SUBJECTS OF PARTICULAR PERTINENCE TO…

  8. Job demands-resources model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerout

  9. Strategic Disclosure of Demand Information by Duopolists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, Jos; Pollak, Andreas

    We study the strategic disclosure of demand information and product-market strategies of duopolists. In a setting where firms may fail to receive information, we show that firms selectively disclose information in equilibrium in order to influence their competitor's product-market strategy...

  10. The World Demand for Catfish Pangasius

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thong Tien; Roth, Eva; Nielsen, Max

    2014-01-01

    . Direct elasticity including own- and cross- price elasticity and income elasticity are calculated to show how consumers from different markets of the world prefer for the Pangasius catfish. We found that catfish products have big room of market demand, indicated by absolute values of own price...

  11. Not a "reality" show.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrong, Terence; Baumgart, Erica

    2013-01-01

    The authors of the preceding articles raise legitimate questions about patient and staff rights and the unintended consequences of allowing ABC News to film inside teaching hospitals. We explain why we regard their fears as baseless and not supported by what we heard from individuals portrayed in the filming, our decade-long experience making medical documentaries, and the full un-aired context of the scenes shown in the broadcast. The authors don't and can't know what conversations we had, what documents we reviewed, and what protections we put in place in each televised scene. Finally, we hope to correct several misleading examples cited by the authors as well as their offhand mischaracterization of our program as a "reality" show.

  12. Demands, control, and support: a meta-analytic review of work characteristics interrelationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchman, Joseph N; González-Morales, M Gloria

    2013-01-01

    The job demands-control-support model (DCS; Karasek, 1979) is an influential theory for understanding how work characteristics relate to employee well-being, health, and performance. However, previous research has largely neglected theory-building regarding the interrelationships between job demands, control, and support. We remedy such theoretical underdevelopment by reviewing and integrating theory on the relationships between demands, control, and support to develop five hypotheses. We test our hypotheses within a meta-analytic framework using a set of 106 studies. Our results show negative demands-supervisor support and demands-coworker support relationships, but no significant demand-control relationship. Our findings also indicate positive control-supervisor support and control-coworker support relationships. Using the meta-analytic effect sizes, we also estimate two competing structural equation models intended to discern which theoretical model using DCS work characteristics to predict occupational strain and well-being is more consistent with our data. Our results suggest that job control and both sources of social support should be treated independently, as opposed to indicators of a shared latent factor, in terms of their prediction of well-being and job demands. Our study offers support for the usefulness of the DCS and more modern conceptualizations of the working environment in understanding the employee work experience and for predicting important work outcomes. (

  13. Climate change and irrigation demand: Uncertainty and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean A. Woznicki

    2015-03-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Uncertainty in irrigation demand was found to increase moving from 2020–2039 to 2060–2079, with demand generally decreasing moving further into the future for corn and soybean. A shift in timing of peak irrigation demand and increases in temperature lead to corn yield reductions. However, soybean yield increased under these conditions. Finally, the adaptation strategy of planting earlier increased irrigation demand and water available for transpiration, while delaying planting resulted in demand decreases for both crops.

  14. Main Determinants of Supplementary Health Insurance Demand: (Case of Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motlagh, Soraya Nouraei; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Mahdavi, Ghadir; Ghaderi, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In the majority of developing countries, the volume of medical insurance services, provided by social insurance organizations is inadequate. Thus, supplementary medical insurance is proposed as a means to address inadequacy of medical insurance. Accordingly, in this article, we attempted to provide the context for expansion of this important branch of insurance through identification of essential factors affecting demand for supplementary medical insurance. Method: In this study, two methods were used to identify essential factors affecting choice of supplementary medical insurance including Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Bayesian logit. To this end, Excel® software was used to refine data and R® software for estimation. The present study was conducted during 2012, covering all provinces in Iran. Sample size included 18,541 urban households, selected by Statistical Center of Iran using 3-stage cluster sampling approach. In this study, all data required were collected from the Statistical Center of Iran. Results: In 2012, an overall 8.04% of the Iranian population benefited from supplementary medical insurance. Demand for supplementary insurance is a concave function of age of the household head, and peaks in middle-age when savings and income are highest. The present study results showed greater likelihood of demand for supplementary medical insurance in households with better economic status, higher educated heads, female heads, and smaller households with greater expected medical expenses, and household income is the most important factor affecting demand for supplementary medical insurance. Conclusion: Since demand for supplementary medical insurance is hugely influenced by households’ economic status, policy-makers in the health sector should devise measures to improve households’ economic or financial access to supplementary insurance services, by identifying households in the lower economic deciles, and increasing their

  15. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  16. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    M S Sridhar

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  17. The Optimal Replenishment Policy under Trade Credit Financing with Ramp Type Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Qin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the optimal replenishment policy for the retailer with the ramp type demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing, which is not reported in the literatures. First, the two inventory models are developed under the above situation. Second, the algorithms are given to optimize the replenishment cycle time and the order quantity for the retailer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the optimal solutions and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The results show that if the value of production rate is small, the retailer will lower the frequency of putting the orders to cut down the order cost; if the production rate is high, the demand dependent production rate has no effect on the optimal decisions. When the trade credit is less than the growth stage time, the retailer will shorten the replenishment cycle; when it is larger than the breakpoint of the demand, within the maturity stage of the products, the trade credit has no effect on the optimal order cycle and the optimal order quantity.

  18. Rainwater harvesting systems for low demanding applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanches Fernandes, Luís F; Terêncio, Daniela P S; Pacheco, Fernando A L

    2015-10-01

    A rainwater harvesting system (RHS) was designed for a waste treatment facility located near the town of Mirandela (northern Portugal), to be used in the washing of vehicles and other equipment, the cleaning of outside concrete or asphalt floors, and the watering of green areas. Water tank volumes representing 100% efficiency (Vr) were calculated by the Ripple method with different results depending on two consumption scenarios adopted for irrigation. The RHS design was based on a precipitation record spanning a rather long period (3 decades). The calculated storage capacities fulfilled the water demand even when prolonged droughts occurred during that timeframe. However, because the drought events have been rather scarce the Vr values were considered oversized and replaced by optimal volumes. Notwithstanding the new volumes were solely half of the original Vr values, the projected RHS efficiency remained very high (around 90%) while the probability of system failure (efficiencyrainwater harvesting, where water availability (Vw) largely exceeds water demand (Cw), that is to say where demand fractions (Cw/Vw) are very low. Based on the results of a literature review covering an ample geographic distribution and describing a very large number of demand fraction scenarios, a Cw/Vw=0.8 was defined as the threshold to generally distinguish the low from the high demanding RHS applications.

  19. Refrigerated Warehouse Demand Response Strategy Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Doug [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Castillo, Rafael [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Larson, Kyle [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Dobbs, Brian [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This guide summarizes demand response measures that can be implemented in refrigerated warehouses. In an appendix, it also addresses related energy efficiency opportunities. Reducing overall grid demand during peak periods and energy consumption has benefits for facility operators, grid operators, utility companies, and society. State wide demand response potential for the refrigerated warehouse sector in California is estimated to be over 22.1 Megawatts. Two categories of demand response strategies are described in this guide: load shifting and load shedding. Load shifting can be accomplished via pre-cooling, capacity limiting, and battery charger load management. Load shedding can be achieved by lighting reduction, demand defrost and defrost termination, infiltration reduction, and shutting down miscellaneous equipment. Estimation of the costs and benefits of demand response participation yields simple payback periods of 2-4 years. To improve demand response performance, it’s suggested to install air curtains and another form of infiltration barrier, such as a rollup door, for the passageways. Further modifications to increase efficiency of the refrigeration unit are also analyzed. A larger condenser can maintain the minimum saturated condensing temperature (SCT) for more hours of the day. Lowering the SCT reduces the compressor lift, which results in an overall increase in refrigeration system capacity and energy efficiency. Another way of saving energy in refrigerated warehouses is eliminating the use of under-floor resistance heaters. A more energy efficient alternative to resistance heaters is to utilize the heat that is being rejected from the condenser through a heat exchanger. These energy efficiency measures improve efficiency either by reducing the required electric energy input for the refrigeration system, by helping to curtail the refrigeration load on the system, or by reducing both the load and required energy input.

  20. The impact of job crafting on job demands, job resources, and well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tims, Maria; Bakker, Arnold B; Derks, Daantje

    2013-04-01

    This longitudinal study examined whether employees can impact their own well-being by crafting their job demands and resources. Based on the job demands-resources model, we hypothesized that employee job crafting would have an impact on work engagement, job satisfaction, and burnout through changes in job demands and job resources. Data was collected in a chemical plant at three time points with one month in between the measurement waves (N = 288). The results of structural equation modeling showed that employees who crafted their job resources in the first month of the study showed an increase in their structural and social resources over the course of the study (2 months). This increase in job resources was positively related to employee well-being (increased engagement and job satisfaction, and decreased burnout). Crafting job demands did not result in a change in job demands, but results revealed direct effects of crafting challenging demands on increases in well-being. We conclude that employee job crafting has a positive impact on well-being and that employees therefore should be offered opportunities to craft their own jobs.

  1. Demanded competences in the agricultural engineering sector in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; Benavente, R. M.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    An engineering education should prepare students, i.e., emerging engineers, to use problem-solving processes that combine creativity and imagination with rigour and discipline. The emphasis on training engineers may be best placed on answering the needs of industry; indeed, many proposals are now being made to try to reduce the gap between the educational and industrial communities. Training in the use of certain skills or competences may be one way of better preparing engineering undergraduates for eventual employment in industry. However, industry's needs in this respect must first be known. The aim of this work was to determine which skills are used by practising agricultural engineers with the aim of incorporating training in their use into our department's teaching curriculum. Three surveys were undertaken to determine which skills are demanded by agricultural engineers in their professional activities in Spain. Surveys were carried out by the Department of Rural Engineering, Technical University of Madrid (Spain), analysing two related degrees (agricultural engineer with a duration of the study plan of three and five years, respectively) during the courses 2006/07 and 2007/08. The first survey determined the competences acquired by the students along their academic studies (371 students interviewed). The second survey determined the skills demanded by the enterprises of the agricultural sector (50 enterprises interviewed). The third survey determined the skills demanded by the agricultural engineers working in the sector (70 engineers interviewed), specifically asking about the computer programs used by practising agricultural engineers. Surveys showed important differences between the competences demanded by the enterprises and the competences acquired by the students at the university. Enterprises mainly demanded general competences (team working, time organizing, and skills with computer programs) and were less interested in specific technical skills

  2. Demand modelling for central heating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heller, A.

    2000-07-01

    Most researchers in the field of heat demand estimation have focussed on explaning the load for a given plant based on rather few measurements. This approach is simply the only one adaptable with the very limited data material and limited computer power. This way of dealing with the subject is here called the top-down approach, due to the fact that one tries to explain the load from the overall data. The results of such efforts are discussed in the report, leading to inspiration for own work. Also the significance of the findings to the causes for given heat loads are discussed and summarised. Contrary to the top-down approach applied in literature, a here-called bottom-up approach is applied in this work, describing the causes of a given partial load in detail and combining them to explain the total load for the system. Three partial load 'components' are discussed: 1) Space heating. 2) Hot-Water Consumption. 3) Heat losses in pipe networks. The report is aimed at giving an introduction to these subjects, but at the same time at collecting the previous work done by the author. Space heating is shortly discussed and loads are generated by an advanced simulation model. A hot water consumption model is presented and heat loads, generated by this model, utilised in the overall work. Heat loads due to heat losses in district heating a given a high priority in the current work. Hence a detailed presentation and overview of the subject is given to solar heating experts normally not dealing with district heating. Based on the 'partial' loads generated by the above-mentioned method, an overall load model is built in the computer simulation environment TRNSYS. The final tool is then employed for the generation of time series for heat demand, representing a district heating area. The results are compared to alternative methods for the generation of heat demand profiles. Results form this comparison will be presented. Computerised modelling of systems

  3. Global Grazing Systems: Their Continuing Importance in Meeting Global Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, K. F.; D'Odorico, P.

    2014-12-01

    Animal production exerts significant demand on land, water and food resources and is an extensive means by which humans modify natural systems. Demand for animal source foods has more than tripled over the past 50 years due to population growth and dietary change. To meet this demand, livestock intensification (e.g. concentrated animal feeding operations) has increased and with it the water, nitrogen and carbon footprints of animal production. However, grass-fed systems continue to contribute significantly to overall animal production. To date, little is known about the contributions of grass- and grain-fed systems to animal calorie production, how this has changed through time and to what extent these two systems are sensitive to climate. Using a calorie-based approach we hypothesize that grain-fed systems are increasing in importance (with serious implications for water and nutrient demand) and that rangeland productivity is correlated with rainfall. Our findings show that grass-fed systems made up the majority of animal calorie production since 1960 years but that the relative contribution of grain-fed system has increased (from 27% to 49%). This rapid transition towards grain-fed animal production is largely a result of changing diets demand, as we found the growth of grass-fed production only kept pace with population growth. On a regional scale, we find that Asia has been the major contributor to the increase in grass-fed animal calorie production and that Africa has undergone the most drastic transition from grass-fed to grain-fed dependence. Finally, as expected we see a positive relationship between rangeland productivity and precipitation and a shift from dairy- to meat-dominated production going from drier to wetter climates. This study represents a new means of analyzing the food security of animal products and an important step in understanding the historic trends of animal production, their relation to climate, their prospects for the future and their

  4. China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

    2016-07-01

    As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

  5. Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and Automated Demand Response in Industrial Refrigerated Warehouses in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lekov, Alex; Thompson, Lisa; McKane, Aimee; Rockoff, Alexandra; Piette, Mary Ann

    2009-05-11

    This report summarizes the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's research to date in characterizing energy efficiency and open automated demand response opportunities for industrial refrigerated warehouses in California. The report describes refrigerated warehouses characteristics, energy use and demand, and control systems. It also discusses energy efficiency and open automated demand response opportunities and provides analysis results from three demand response studies. In addition, several energy efficiency, load management, and demand response case studies are provided for refrigerated warehouses. This study shows that refrigerated warehouses can be excellent candidates for open automated demand response and that facilities which have implemented energy efficiency measures and have centralized control systems are well-suited to shift or shed electrical loads in response to financial incentives, utility bill savings, and/or opportunities to enhance reliability of service. Control technologies installed for energy efficiency and load management purposes can often be adapted for open automated demand response (OpenADR) at little additional cost. These improved controls may prepare facilities to be more receptive to OpenADR due to both increased confidence in the opportunities for controlling energy cost/use and access to the real-time data.

  6. Model for Assembly Line Re-Balancing Considering Additional Capacity and Outsourcing to Face Demand Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadhi, TMAA; Sumihartati, Atin

    2016-02-01

    The most critical stage in a garment industry is sewing process, because generally, it consists of a number of operations and a large number of sewing machines for each operation. Therefore, it requires a balancing method that can assign task to work station with balance workloads. Many studies on assembly line balancing assume a new assembly line, but in reality, due to demand fluctuation and demand increased a re-balancing is needed. To cope with those fluctuating demand changes, additional capacity can be carried out by investing in spare sewing machine and paying for sewing service through outsourcing. This study develops an assembly line balancing (ALB) model on existing line to cope with fluctuating demand change. Capacity redesign is decided if the fluctuation demand exceeds the available capacity through a combination of making investment on new machines and outsourcing while considering for minimizing the cost of idle capacity in the future. The objective of the model is to minimize the total cost of the line assembly that consists of operating costs, machine cost, adding capacity cost, losses cost due to idle capacity and outsourcing costs. The model develop is based on an integer programming model. The model is tested for a set of data of one year demand with the existing number of sewing machines of 41 units. The result shows that additional maximum capacity up to 76 units of machine required when there is an increase of 60% of the average demand, at the equal cost parameters..

  7. Children’s School-Breakfast Reports and School-Lunch Reports (in 24-hour Dietary Recalls): Conventional and Reporting-Error-Sensitive Measures Show Inconsistent Accuracy Results for Retention Interval and for Breakfast Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Suzanne Domel; Guinn, Caroline H.; Smith, Albert F.; Hitchcock, David B.; Royer, Julie A.; Puryear, Megan P.; Collins, Kathleen L.; Smith, Alyssa L.

    2017-01-01

    Validation-study data were analyzed to investigate retention interval (RI) and prompt effects on accuracy of fourth-grade children’s reports of school-breakfast and school-lunch (in 24-hour recalls), and accuracy of school-breakfast reports by breakfast location (classroom; cafeteria). Randomly-selected fourth-grade children at 10 schools in four districts were observed eating school-provided breakfast and lunch, and interviewed under one of eight conditions (two RIs [short (prior-24-hour recall obtained in afternoon); long (previous-day recall obtained in morning)] crossed with four prompts [forward (distant-to-recent), meal-name (breakfast, etc.), open (no instructions), reverse (recent-to-distant)]). Each condition had 60 children (half girls). Of 480 children, 355 and 409 reported meals satisfying criteria for reports of school-breakfast and school-lunch, respectively. For breakfast and lunch separately, a conventional measure—report rate—and reporting-error-sensitive measures—correspondence rate and inflation ratio—were calculated for energy per meal-reporting child. Correspondence rate and inflation ratio—but not report rate—showed better accuracy for school-breakfast and school-lunch reports with the short than long RI; this pattern was not found for some prompts for each sex. Correspondence rate and inflation ratio showed better school-breakfast report accuracy for the classroom than cafeteria location for each prompt, but report rate showed the opposite. For each RI, correspondence rate and inflation ratio showed better accuracy for lunch than breakfast, but report rate showed the opposite. When choosing RI and prompts for recalls, researchers and practitioners should select short RIs to maximize accuracy. Recommendations for prompt selections are less clear. As report rates distort validation-study accuracy conclusions, reporting-error-sensitive measures are recommended. PMID:26865356

  8. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  9. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  10. Uranium 2014 resources, production and demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

    2014-01-01

    Published every other year, Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, or the "Red Book" as it is commonly known, is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. It presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Long-term projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. This edition focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major changes in the industry.

  11. Uranium 2007 resources, production and demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

    2008-01-01

    Based on official information received from 40 countries, Uranium 2007 provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1st January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. It finds that with rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of underinvestment.

  12. Uranium 2005 Resources, Production and Demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris. Nuclear Energy Agency

    2006-01-01

    Published every other year, Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, or the "Red Book" as it is commonly known, is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. This 21st edition presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1st January 2005 and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2025 are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. This edition focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major c...

  13. The interpersonal process model of demand/withdraw behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R; Dickenson, Janna A; Atkins, David C; Baucom, Donald H; Fischer, Melanie S; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Zimmermann, Tanja

    2015-02-01

    The demand/withdraw interaction pattern is a destructive cycle of relationship communication behavior that is associated with negative individual and relationship outcomes. Demand/withdraw behavior is thought to be strongly linked to partners' emotional reactions, but current theories are inconsistent with empirical findings. The current study proposes the interpersonal process model of demand/withdraw behavior, which includes linkages between each partners' emotional reactions and the interpersonal behavior of demanding and withdrawing. Data come from problem solving discussions of 55 German couples with observationally coded demand/withdraw behavior and fundamental frequency (f₀) to measure vocally encoded emotional arousal. Actor-partner interdependence models (Kenny, Kashy, & Cook, 2006) were used to examine associations among demand/withdraw behavior and f₀ in the overall discussion and 5-min segments. Significant cross-partner associations emerged for demanding and withdrawing behavior across the whole conversation as well as within 5-min segments, and these associations are partially accounted for by each individual's f₀. When behaviorally coded demanders expressed more vocal arousal, they demanded more and withdrew less while their partners withdrew more. In contrast, when behaviorally coded withdrawers expressed more vocal arousal, their partners demanded less and withdrew more. Findings demonstrate that demand/withdraw behavior varies between couples (i.e., some couples engage in a stronger demand/withdraw cycle than others) and between segments (i.e., when 1 partner increases demanding, the other increases withdrawing). Findings support key elements of the interpersonal process model, showing intra- and interpersonal pathways linking demand/withdraw behavior and emotion and demonstrate the importance of partners' behavioral roles in these linkages.

  14. Job demand and cardiovascular disease risk factor in white-collar workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Young Kyu; Lee, Kang Koo; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Koo, Jung-Wan

    2010-01-01

    This study was conducted to determine whether job demand played a role as a risk factor of cardiovascular diseases by comparing changes of blood pressure, heart rate and rate pressure product (RPP) showing myocardial oxygen consumption (MVO2) according to levels of job demand. This cross-sectional study divided 177 male white-collar workers without a cardiovascular or metabolic disease according to their job demand and analyzed their body composition and results of graded exercise testing. There was no significant difference in height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR) and body fat percentage according to job demand. Maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) and anaerobic threshold (AT) also did not show a significant difference. However, systolic blood pressures at the seventh and eighth stages over AT during exercise were significantly different and RPP was found to have a significant difference overall according to the job demand (ppressure in physical activities or at exercise intensity over AT and reduced energy efficiency of myocardium during physical activities. The results suggest that high job demand may be a risk factor of cardiovascular diseases.

  15. DEMAND CATEGORISATION, FORECASTING, AND INVENTORY CONTROL FOR INTERMITTENT DEMAND ITEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Babiloni

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is commonly assumed that intermittent demand appears randomly, with many periods without demand; but that when it does appear, it tends to be higher than unit size. Basic and well-known forecasting techniques and stock policies perform very poorly with intermittent demand, making new approaches necessary. To select the appropriate inventory management policy, it is important to understand the demand pattern for the items, especially when demand is intermittent. The use of a forecasting method designed for an intermittent demand pattern, such as Croston’s method, is required instead of a simpler and more common approach such as exponential smoothing. The starting point is to establish taxonomic rules to select efficiently the most appropriate forecasting and stock control policy to cope with thousands of items found in real environments. This paper contributes to the state of the art in: (i categorisation of the demand pattern; (ii methods to forecast intermittent demand; and (iii stock control methods for items with intermittent demand patterns. The paper first presents a structured literature review to introduce managers to the theoretical research about how to deal with intermittent demand items in both forecasting and stock control methods, and then it points out some research gaps for future development for the three topics.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar word algemeen aanvaar dat intermitterende vraag op toevalswyse voorkom, met verskeie periodes waar daar geen vraag is nie. Wanneer die vraag dan wel materialiseer, oorskry dit dikwels die eenheidsgrootte. Die bekende vooruitskattingstegnieke en voorraadbeleidstellings het min sukses waar intermitterende vraag voorkom, sodat nuwe benaderings nodig is om die problem aan te spreek. Om ‘n geskikte voorraadbestuur-beleid te selekteer, is dit noodsaaklik om die vraagpatroon van die items te verstaan, juis in gevalle van intermitterende patrone. Die gebruik van

  16. Automated Demand Response Opportunities in Wastewater Treatment Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, Lisa; Song, Katherine; Lekov, Alex; McKane, Aimee

    2008-11-19

    Wastewater treatment is an energy intensive process which, together with water treatment, comprises about three percent of U.S. annual energy use. Yet, since wastewater treatment facilities are often peripheral to major electricity-using industries, they are frequently an overlooked area for automated demand response opportunities. Demand response is a set of actions taken to reduce electric loads when contingencies, such as emergencies or congestion, occur that threaten supply-demand balance, and/or market conditions occur that raise electric supply costs. Demand response programs are designed to improve the reliability of the electric grid and to lower the use of electricity during peak times to reduce the total system costs. Open automated demand response is a set of continuous, open communication signals and systems provided over the Internet to allow facilities to automate their demand response activities without the need for manual actions. Automated demand response strategies can be implemented as an enhanced use of upgraded equipment and facility control strategies installed as energy efficiency measures. Conversely, installation of controls to support automated demand response may result in improved energy efficiency through real-time access to operational data. This paper argues that the implementation of energy efficiency opportunities in wastewater treatment facilities creates a base for achieving successful demand reductions. This paper characterizes energy use and the state of demand response readiness in wastewater treatment facilities and outlines automated demand response opportunities.

  17. User Demand Aware Grid Scheduling Model with Hierarchical Load Balancing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Suresh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Grid computing is a collection of computational and data resources, providing the means to support both computational intensive applications and data intensive applications. In order to improve the overall performance and efficient utilization of the resources, an efficient load balanced scheduling algorithm has to be implemented. The scheduling approach also needs to consider user demand to improve user satisfaction. This paper proposes a dynamic hierarchical load balancing approach which considers load of each resource and performs load balancing. It minimizes the response time of the jobs and improves the utilization of the resources in grid environment. By considering the user demand of the jobs, the scheduling algorithm also improves the user satisfaction. The experimental results show the improvement of the proposed load balancing method.

  18. Grain Emergency Vehicle Scheduling Problem with Time and Demand Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang DongQing

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Grain transportation plays an important role in many relief and emergency supply chains. In this paper, we take the grain emergency vehicle scheduling model between multiwarehouses as the research object. Under the emergency environment, the aim of the problem is to maximize the utilization of vehicles and minimize the delay time. The randomness of the key parameters in grain emergency vehicle scheduling, such as time and demand, is determined through statistical analysis and the model is solved through robust optimization method. Besides, we apply the numerical examples for experimental analysis. We compare the robust optimization model with classic model to illustrate the differences and similarities between them. The results show that the uncertainty of both time and demand has great influence on the efficiency of grain emergency vehicle scheduling problem.

  19. Households’ hourly electricity consumption and peak demand in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Baldini, Mattia; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    2017-01-01

    to a considerable introduction of electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, household consumption is expected to increase considerably, especially peak hour consumption is expected to increase. Next the paper presents results from a new experiment where household customers are given economic and/or environmental......The electrification of residential energy demand for heating and transportation is expected to increase peak load and require additional generation and transmission capacities. Electrification also provides an opportunity to increase demand response. With a focus on household electricity...... incentives to shift consumption to or away from specified hours. The experiment focuses on the present classic consumption and shows that household customers do react to incentives, but today the flexibility of the classic consumption is limited. Considering electric vehicles and individual heat pumps...

  20. Selection of spatial reference frames depends on task's demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greeshma Sharma

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial reference frames (SRF are the means of representing spatial relations or locations either in an egocentric coordinate system (centred on navigator or in an allocentric coordinate system (Centred on object. It is necessary to understand when and how spatial representation switches between allocentric and egocentric reference frames in context to spatial tasks. The objective of this study was to explore if the elementary spatial representation does exist, whether it would remain consistent or change under the influence of a task's demand. Also, we explored how the SRF would assist if the environment is enriched with landmarks, having multiple routes for wayfinding. The results showed that the switching of SRF depends not only on the default representation but also on a task's demand. They also demonstrated that participants who were using allocentric representation performed better in the presence of landmarks.

  1. The Cobweb Effect in Balancing Markets with Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Emil Mahler; Pinson, Pierre; Wang, Jianhui

    2015-01-01

    structure and measurements from the EcoGrid EU demonstration, where five minute electricity pricing is sent to 1900 houses. A new tool for quantifying volatility is presented, and the causes for volatility are investigated. A key outcome of this study shows that increases in social welfare due to DR appear......Integration of renewable energy sources (RES) like wind into the power system is a high priority in many countries, but it becomes increasingly difficult as renewables reach a significant share of generation. Demand response (DR) can potentially mitigate some of these difficulties, but the best way...... to control and integrate DR into the power system remains an open question. Integration into existing electricity markets is one option, but dynamic pricing with DR has been observed to be unstable, resulting in oscillations in supply and demand. This socalled Cobweb effect is presented here using the market...

  2. Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Consumer demand and quality assurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

    2011-01-01

    Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present an......, and that these implications are different for fresh meat and processed meat. The paper closes with a call for more collaboration between chain researchers and consumer researchers.......Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...

  4. Saving Electricity and Demand Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki

    A lot of people lost their lives in the tremendous earthquake in Tohoku region on March 11. A large capacity of electric power plants in TEPCO area was also damaged and large scale power shortage in this summer is predicted. In this situation, electricity customers are making great effort to save electricity to avoid planned outage. Customers take actions not only by their selves but also by some customers' cooperative movements. All actions taken actually are based on responses to request form the government or voluntary decision. On the other hand, demand response based on a financial stimulus is not observed as an actual behavior. Saving electricity by this demand response only discussed in the newspapers. In this commentary, the events regarding electricity-saving measure after this disaster are described and the discussions on demand response, especially a raise in power rate, are put into shapes in the context of this electricity supply-demand gap.

  5. Supply and Demand for Graduates in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabsheibani, Gholamreza

    1991-01-01

    Data from a sample of university graduates in Egypt are used to test the effect of a mismatch in higher education policy and labor demand on future employment patterns. The results are delayed employment or underemployment and consequent lowering of lifetime earnings of college graduates. (MSE)

  6. Job Demand in the Cosmetology Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudner, Lawrence M.; Deutermann, William V., Jr.

    In order to determine job demand in the cosmetology industry, a survey was made of a nationally representative stratified random sample of 1,454 beauty salons, barber shops, and unisex salons in July 1991. Salon owners were asked about 1990 and their plans for the future. Survey results were supplemented with information about the industry…

  7. Market design for rapid demand response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kurt; Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale

    the nature of the demand response system and reveals that a simple markup contract between the Aggregator and the TSO is sufficiently flexible and little distorting. The simulation also provide a the less intuitive result, that the auction motivates the TSO to o er a high markup contract to the Aggregator...

  8. Market design for rapid demand response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kurt; Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale

    the nature of the demand response system and reveals that a simple markup contract between the Aggregator and the TSO is sufficiently flexible and little distorting. The simulation also provide a the less intuitive result, that the auction motivates the TSO to o er a high markup contract to the Aggregator...

  9. In favour of the definition "adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis": juvenile and adolescent idiopathic scoliosis braced after ten years of age, do not show different end results. SOSORT award winner 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Donzelli, Sabrina; Zaina, Fabio; Lusini, Monia; Minnella, Salvatore; Negrini, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background The most important factor discriminating juvenile (JIS) from adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is the risk of deformity progression. Brace treatment can change natural history, even when risk of progression is high. The aim of this study was to compare the end of growth results of JIS subjects, treated after 10 years of age, with final results of AIS. Methods Design: prospective observational controlled cohort study nested in a prospective database. Setting: outpatient tertiary...

  10. Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

    2007-05-01

    The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

  11. Research on Demand Prediction of Fresh Food Supply Chain Based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    He Wang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Demand prediction of supply chain is an important content and the first premise in supply management of different enterprises and has become one of the difficulties and hot research fields for the researchers related. The paper takes fresh food demand prediction for example and presents a new algorithm for predicting demand of fresh food supply chain. First, the working principle and the root causes of the defects of particle swarm optimization algorithm are analyzed in the study; Second, the study designs a new cloud particle swarm optimization algorithm to guarantee the effectiveness of particles in later searching phase and redesigns its cloud global optimization searching method and crossover operation; Finally, a certain fresh food supply chain is taken for example to illustrate the validity and feasibility of the improved algorithm and the experimental results show that the improved algorithm can improve prediction accuracy and calculation efficiency when used for demand prediction of fresh food supply chain.

  12. Product demand forecasts using wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization in manufacture system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qi

    2010-03-01

    Demand forecasts play a crucial role in supply chain management. The future demand for a certain product is the basis for the respective replenishment systems. Aiming at demand series with small samples, seasonal character, nonlinearity, randomicity and fuzziness, the existing support vector kernel does not approach the random curve of the sales time series in the space (quadratic continuous integral space). In this paper, we present a hybrid intelligent system combining the wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization for demand forecasting. The results of application in car sale series forecasting show that the forecasting approach based on the hybrid PSOWv-SVM model is effective and feasible, the comparison between the method proposed in this paper and other ones is also given, which proves that this method is, for the discussed example, better than hybrid PSOv-SVM and other traditional methods.

  13. Forecasting Monthly Electricity Demands: An Application of Neural Networks Trained by Heuristic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Fung Chen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in capacity planning, scheduling, and the operation of power systems. Reliable and accurate prediction of electricity demands is therefore vital. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs trained by different heuristic algorithms, including Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA and Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA, are utilized to estimate monthly electricity demands. The empirical data used in this study are the historical data affecting electricity demand, including rainy time, temperature, humidity, wind speed, etc. The proposed models are applied to Hanoi, Vietnam. Based on the performance indices calculated, the constructed models show high forecasting performances. The obtained results also compare with those of several well-known methods. Our study indicates that the ANN-COA model outperforms the others and provides more accurate forecasting than traditional methods.

  14. Projection of regional demand for labour force under the terms of industry modernization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Aleksandrovich Bayev

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The article represents the results of research devoted to the problem of demand for labour force projection. The two main priorities of Russian economic development — modernization and innovation — are declared as the factors influencing labour market in a rather intrinsic and specific way. The research of dependence between GDP growth rate per occupied in the most developed countries is conducted and shows the positive influence the innovation process imposes on the demand for labour force. The particular problem is proved to be semi-structured. The selforganisation approach to this problem is proposed and helps to detect that the main shaping process of labour market dynamics is industry modernization. The trend of modernization influence on demand for labour force is revealed and taken under consideration while developing the mathematical model, enabling to predict the demand for labour force with not more than 2% mean absolute percentage error.

  15. Application of Job Demands-Resources model in research on relationships between job satisfaction, job resources, individual resources and job demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrianna Potocka

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between job demands, job resourses, personal resourses and job satisfaction and to assess the usefulness of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R model in the explanation of these phenomena. Materials and Methods: The research was based on a sample of 500 social workers. The "Psychosocial Factors" and "Job satisfaction" questionnaires were used to test the hypothesis. Results: The results showed that job satisfaction increased with increasing job accessibility and personal resources (r = 0.44; r = 0.31; p < 0.05. The analysis of variance (ANOVA indicated that job resources and job demands [F(1.474 = 4.004; F(1.474 = 4.166; p < 0.05] were statistically significant sources of variation in job satisfaction. Moreover, interactions between job demands and job resources [F(3,474 = 2.748; p < 0.05], as well as between job demands and personal resources [F(3.474 = 3.021; p < 0.05] had a significant impact on job satisfaction. The post hoc tests showed that 1 in low job demands, but high job resources employees declared higher job satisfaction, than those who perceived them as medium (p = 0.0001 or low (p = 0.0157; 2 when the level of job demands was perceived as medium, employees with high personal resources declared significantly higher job satisfaction than those with low personal resources (p = 0.0001. Conclusion: The JD-R model can be used to investigate job satisfaction. Taking into account fundamental factors of this model, in organizational management there are possibilities of shaping job satisfaction among employees. Med Pr 2013;64(2:217–225

  16. Crop demand of manganese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marton, Laszlo

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate some of the popular rotation crops grown in Hungary for tolerance to low external Mn(2+) levels and to determine the critical tissue concentration of Mn(2+) deficiency during early stages of growth. The minimum Mn(2+) concentration required in soil nutrient contents was 42.5 mg kg(-1) for sunflower, 24.3 mg kg(-1) for tobacco and 10.2 mg kg(-1) for triticale. Sunflower, tobacco and triticale achieved optimum growth at 48.0-65.0 mg Mn(2+) kg(-1), 24.9-32.1 mg Mn( n+) kg(-1) and 28.7 to 29.6 mg Mn(2+) kg(-1), respectively. Critical shoot Mn(2+) concentration at early stages of growth was 53.6 mg kg(-1) in sunflower, 458.0 mg kg(-1) in tobacco and 193.8 mg kg(-1) in triticale. Our results demonstrate that the tolerance to low external Mn(2+) (triticale: crop species tested.

  17. Theoretical investigation on the Schelling's critical neighborhood demand

    CERN Document Server

    Shin, Jae Kyun

    2014-01-01

    We derived the critical neighborhood demand in the Schelling's segregation model by studying the conditions for which a chain reaction of migrations of unsatisfied agents occurs. The essence of Schelling dynamics was approximated in two simplified models: (1) a random walk model for the initial stage of the migrations to illustrate the power-law behavior of chain reaction lengths under critical conditions, and (2) a two-room model for the whole process to represent a non-spatial version of segregation dynamics in the Schelling model. Our theoretical results showed good agreements with numerical results obtained from agent-based simulations.

  18. Theoretical investigation on the Schelling's critical neighborhood demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jae Kyun; Sayama, Hiroki

    2014-05-01

    We derived the critical neighborhood demand in the Schelling's segregation model by studying the conditions for which a chain reaction of migrations of unsatisfied agents occurs. The essence of Schelling dynamics was approximated in two simplified models: (1) a random walk model for the initial stage of the migrations to illustrate the power-law behavior of chain reaction lengths under critical conditions, and (2) a two-room model for the whole process to represent a non-spatial version of segregation dynamics in the Schelling model. Our theoretical results showed good agreements with numerical results obtained from agent-based simulations.

  19. Separation of metabolic supply and demand: aerobic glycolysis as a normal physiological response to fluctuating energetic demands in the membrane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Tamir; Xu, Liping; Gillies, Robert J; Gatenby, Robert A

    2014-01-01

    Cancer cells, and a variety of normal cells, exhibit aerobic glycolysis, high rates of glucose fermentation in the presence of normal oxygen concentrations, also known as the Warburg effect. This metabolism is considered abnormal because it violates the standard model of cellular energy production that assumes glucose metabolism is predominantly governed by oxygen concentrations and, therefore, fermentative glycolysis is an emergency back-up for periods of hypoxia. Though several hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of aerobic glycolysis, its biological basis in cancer and normal cells is still not well understood. We examined changes in glucose metabolism following perturbations in membrane activity in different normal and tumor cell lines and found that inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. Computational simulations demonstrated that these findings are consistent with a new model of normal physiological cellular metabolism in which efficient mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation supplies chronic energy demand primarily for macromolecule synthesis and glycolysis is necessary to supply rapid energy demands primarily to support membrane pumps. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. The predictions were confirmed experimentally. Our results show that glycolytic metabolism serves a critical physiological function under normoxic conditions by responding to rapid energetic demand, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This supports a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Cells use efficient but slow-responding aerobic metabolism

  20. A Comparison of Optimal Operation of a Residential Fuel Cell Co-Generation System Using Clustered Demand Patterns Based on Kullback-Leibler Divergence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takumi Hasizume

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available When evaluating residential energy systems like co-generation systems, hot water and electricity demand profiles are critical. In this paper, the authors aim to extract basic time-series demand patterns from two kinds of measured demand (electricity and domestic hot water, and also aim to reveal effective demand patterns for primary energy saving. Time-series demand data are categorized with a hierarchical clustering method using a statistical pseudo-distance, which is represented by the generalized Kullback-Leibler divergence of two Gaussian mixture distributions. The classified demand patterns are built using hierarchical clustering and then a comparison is made between the optimal operation of a polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell co-generation system and the operation of a reference system (a conventional combination of a condensing gas boiler and electricity purchased from the grid using the appropriately built demand profiles. Our results show that basic demand patterns are extracted by the proposed method, and the heat-to-power ratio of demand, the amount of daily demand, and demand patterns affect the primary energy saving of the co-generation system.

  1. The relationship between irrigation water demand and drought in the Yellow River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu; Wang, Weihao; Peng, Shaoming; Jiang, Guiqin; Wu, Jian

    2016-10-01

    In order to organize water for drought resistance reasonably, we need to study the relationship between irrigation water demand and meteorological drought in quantitative way. We chose five typical irrigation districts including the Qingtongxia irrigation district, Yellow River irrigation districts of Inner Mongolia in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Fen river irrigation district and the Wei river irrigation district in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the irrigation districts in the lower reaches of the Yellow River as research area. Based on the hydrology, meteorology, groundwater and crop parameters materials from 1956 to 2010 in the Yellow River basin, we selected reconnaissance drought index (RDI) to analyze occurrence and evolution regularity of drought in the five typical irrigation districts, and calculated the corresponding irrigation water demand by using crop water balance equation. The relationship of drought and irrigation water demand in each typical irrigation district was studied by using grey correlation analysis and relevant analysis method, and the quantitative relationship between irrigation water demand and RDI was established in each typical irrigation district. The results showed that the RDI can be applied to evaluate the meteorological drought in the typical irrigation districts of the Yellow River basin. There is significant correlation between the irrigation water demand and RDI, and the grey correlation degree and correlation coefficient increased with increasing crops available effective rainfall. The irrigation water demand of irrigation districts in the upstream, middle and downstream of the Yellow River basin presented different response degrees to drought. The irrigation water demand increased 105 million m3 with the drought increasing one grade (RDI decreasing 0.5) in the Qingtongxia irrigation district and Yellow River irrigation districts of Inner Mongolia. The irrigation water demand increased 219 million m3

  2. The effect of increased consumer demand on fees for aesthetic surgery: an economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

    1999-12-01

    Economic theory dictates that changes in consumer demand have predictable effects on prices. Demographics represents an important component of demand for aesthetic surgery. Between the years of 1997 and 2010, the U.S. population is projected to increase by 12 percent. The population increase will be skewed such that those groups undergoing the most aesthetic surgery will see the largest increase. Accounting for the age-specific frequencies of aesthetic surgery and the population increase yields an estimate that the overall market for aesthetic surgery will increase by 19 percent. Barring unforeseen changes in general economic conditions or consumer tastes, demand should increase by an analogous amount. An economic demonstration shows the effects of increasing demand for aesthetic surgery on its fees. Between the years of 1992 and 1997, there was an increase in demand for breast augmentation as fears of associated autoimmune disorders subsided. Similarly, there was increased male acceptance of aesthetic surgery. The number of breast augmentations and procedures to treat male pattern baldness, plastic surgeons, and fees for the procedures were tracked. During the study period, the supply of surgeons and consumer demand increased for both of these procedures. Volume of breast augmentation increased by 275 percent, whereas real fees remained stable. Volume of treatment for male pattern baldness increased by 107 percent, and the fees increased by 29 percent. Ordinarily, an increase in supply leads to a decrease in prices. This did not occur during the study period. Economic analysis demonstrates that the increased supply of surgeons performing breast augmentation was offset by increased consumer demand for the procedure. For this reason, fees were not lowered. Similarly, increased demand for treatment of male pattern baldness more than offset the increased supply of surgeons performing it. The result was higher fees. Emphasis should be placed on using these economic

  3. The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Kimberly A.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Stoy, Paul C.; Williams, Christopher A.; Bohrer, Gil; Oishi, A. Christopher; Papuga, Shirley A.; Blanken, Peter D.; Noormets, Asko; Sulman, Benjamin N.; Scott, Russell L.; Wang, Lixin; Phillips, Richard P.

    2016-11-01

    Soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water independently limit--and profoundly affect--vegetation productivity and water use during periods of hydrologic stress. Disentangling the impact of these two drivers on ecosystem carbon and water cycling is difficult because they are often correlated, and experimental tools for manipulating atmospheric demand in the field are lacking. Consequently, the role of atmospheric demand is often not adequately factored into experiments or represented in models. Here we show that atmospheric demand limits surface conductance and evapotranspiration to a greater extent than soil moisture in many biomes, including mesic forests that are of particular importance to the terrestrial carbon sink. Further, using projections from ten general circulation models, we show that climate change will increase the importance of atmospheric constraints to carbon and water fluxes in all ecosystems. Consequently, atmospheric demand will become increasingly important for vegetation function, accounting for >70% of growing season limitation to surface conductance in mesic temperate forests. Our results suggest that failure to consider the limiting role of atmospheric demand in experimental designs, simulation models and land management strategies will lead to incorrect projections of ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.

  4. Optimal transport on supply-demand networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Han; Wang, Bing-Hong; Zhao, Li-Chao; Zhou, Changsong; Zhou, Tao

    2010-06-01

    In the literature, transport networks are usually treated as homogeneous networks, that is, every node has the same function, simultaneously providing and requiring resources. However, some real networks, such as power grids and supply chain networks, show a far different scenario in which nodes are classified into two categories: supply nodes provide some kinds of services, while demand nodes require them. In this paper, we propose a general transport model for these supply-demand networks, associated with a criterion to quantify their transport capacities. In a supply-demand network with heterogeneous degree distribution, its transport capacity strongly depends on the locations of supply nodes. We therefore design a simulated annealing algorithm to find the near optimal configuration of supply nodes, which remarkably enhances the transport capacity compared with a random configuration and outperforms the degree target algorithm, the betweenness target algorithm, and the greedy method. This work provides a start point for systematically analyzing and optimizing transport dynamics on supply-demand networks.

  5. PULP DEMAND IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmilson Santos Cruz

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at analyzing the international pulp market, taking into account themain exporting countries and importing regions, with the objective of estimating, for each market, theown-price and cross-price elasticity in relation to the demand of the pulp, differentiated for country oforigin. The model considers that imports are differentiated by origin; therefore they are not perfect substitutes. The demand from Europe, North America and the Rest of the World for the pulp from theUnited States,Canada, Sweden, Finland, Portugal and Brazil was inelastic. The Asian demand for thissome pulp was elastic. Europe and the Rest of the World showed negative cross-price elasticity, i. e.,and the imported pulp from other countries are complementary products. North America and Asiashowed positive crow-price elasticity, i. e., they consider the pulp produced in other countries assubstitute products. The net effect of the variation on the price of pulp in a country h, over the amountof pulp that goes to the region i depends on the matching of values related to the elasticity ofsubstitution and the price elasticity of the total demand.

  6. Exploring Demand and Provision in English Child Protection Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Rick; Goldacre, Allie; Grant, Robert; Jones, Ray

    2016-06-01

    This paper presents the results of an exploratory study linking the national data-sets for all children in need and child protection services in England. The study was informed by an emerging literature on systems thinking in public services, and aimed to examine variations and patterns of response in local authorities to demand for child welfare services in their area. One hundred and fifty-two local authority census returns and other statistical indicators covering up to a thirteen-year period were combined into a single data-set. Statistical analysis was undertaken to explore the characteristics of demand, workload and workforce, trends over time and variations between local authorities. The results showed that the overall system has become increasingly geared towards protective interventions, especially since the Baby P scandal of 2008. Deprivation levels continue to be the key driver of referrals and other categories of demand, and are strongly associated with variations in service response, particularly in the initial stages of referral and assessment. Implications are considered for the current organisation of child welfare services in light of recent reviews and reforms.

  7. The "Life Potential": a new complex algorithm to assess "Heart Rate Variability" from Holter records for cognitive and diagnostic aims. Preliminary experimental results showing its dependence on age, gender and health conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Barra, Orazio A

    2013-01-01

    Although HRV (Heart Rate Variability) analyses have been carried out for several decades, several limiting factors still make these analyses useless from a clinical point of view. The present paper aims at overcoming some of these limits by introducing the "Life Potential" (BMP), a new mathematical algorithm which seems to exhibit surprising cognitive and predictive capabilities. BMP is defined as a linear combination of five HRV Non-Linear Variables, in turn derived from the thermodynamic formalism of chaotic dynamic systems. The paper presents experimental measurements of BMP (Average Values and Standard Deviations) derived from 1048 Holter tests, matched in age and gender, including a control group of 356 healthy subjects. The main results are: (a) BMP always decreases when the age increases, and its dependence on age and gender is well established; (b) the shape of the age dependence within "healthy people" is different from that found in the general group: this behavior provides evidence of possible illn...

  8. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  9. Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California Agricultural Irrigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Pumping water for agricultural irrigation represents a significant share of California’s annual electricity use and peak demand. It also represents a large source of potential flexibility, as farms possess a form of storage in their wetted soil. By carefully modifying their irrigation schedules, growers can participate in demand response without adverse effects on their crops. This report describes the potential for participation in demand response and automated demand response by agricultural irrigators in California, as well as barriers to widespread participation. The report first describes the magnitude, timing, location, purpose, and manner of energy use in California. Typical on-­farm controls are discussed, as well as common impediments to participation in demand response and automated demand response programs. Case studies of demand response programs in California and across the country are reviewed, and their results along with overall California demand estimates are used to estimate statewide demand response potential. Finally, recommendations are made for future research that can enhance the understanding of demand response potential in this industry.

  10. Role of Demand Awareness in the Communicator Credibility Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Monte M.

    1970-01-01

    The results of this communicator credibility and opinion change experiment suggest that demand characteristics and persuasion are confounded in laboratory opinion experiments; however, the results of manipulations like communicator credibility may be entirely due to the demand characteristics of the situation. (DB)

  11. The determinants and stability of money demand in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan Kjosevski

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to examine the long and short-run determinants, and stability of money demand (M1 in the Republic of Macedonia using monthly data from January 2005 to October 2012. The Johansen cointegration technique and VECM model were used to fi nd the long-run and short-term dynamic relationships in money demand model. Empirical results provide the evidence that exchange rate and interest rate payable on denar time deposits up to one month explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is signifi cant only in short-run. Long-run money demand function is estimated to indicate slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Our fi nding shows that real money demand M1 in the Republic of Macedonia is stable in the analyzed period. The results obtained in this study suggest that the National Bank should carefully monitor the exchange rate and infl ation as two most important indicators of monetary policy, because these two determinants are the main drivers of demand for money in the short and long term.

  12. Competence-based demands made of senior physicians: an empirical study to evaluate leadership competencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehr, Bosco; Ostermann, Herwig; Schubert, Harald

    2011-01-01

    As a result of more economising in German hospitals, changes evolve in organising the deployment of senior medical staff. New demands are made of senior hospital management. Leadership competencies in the training and development of physicians are of prime importance to the successful perception of managerial responsibilities. The present study investigates the actual and targeted demands of leadership made of senior medical staff in terms of how these demands are perceived. To this end, the demands of leadership were surveyed using a competence-based questionnaire and investigated with a view to potentials in professional development by way of example of the senior management of psychiatric hospitals in Germany. In all, the results show high ratings in personal performance, the greatest significance being attributed to value-oriented competence in the actual assessment of demands on leadership. Besides gender-specific differences in the actual assessments of single fields of competence, the greatest differences between the targeted and the actual demands are, in all, shown to be in the competencies of self-management and communication. Competence-based core areas in leadership can be demonstrated for the professional development of physicians and an adaptive mode of procedure deduced.

  13. Perception, demand and user contribution to ecosystem services in the Bilbao Metropolitan Greenbelt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casado-Arzuaga, Izaskun; Madariaga, Iosu; Onaindia, Miren

    2013-11-15

    Peri-urban ecosystems are often managed as recreation areas or to enhance aesthetic value on the urban fringe. Scholars and land-use practitioners lack a current understanding of the supply of and the demands for these peri-urban ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we analysed the perceptions of 500 users and interest groups regarding the ES provided by the Bilbao Metropolitan Greenbelt (BMG) ecosystems in northern Spain, and we compared these perceptions to the demands for ES. The objective of this study is to understand user preferences and to thereby better orient land use planning. The results show that the demand for ES in the BMG did not correspond to what users perceived these ecosystems to provide. The respondents' perceptions appeared to be related to the management practices in the area, whereas their demand was related to the benefits they would like to obtain from the BMG. The interviewees were in favour of improvements to peri-urban rural areas, and the results suggested that the authorities should highlight the role of the BMG ecosystems with respect to regulating services and historic and cultural values to improve people's awareness of the ecosystems' capacity to provide benefits to society. Application of this framework also highlighted that there were differences in the perception of and demand for ES among different user groups. This holistic method of matching user demand with policy could be a useful tool to reorient ES-based land planning.

  14. Show Me the Money, Honey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerson, Noelle

    2012-01-01

    Squeezed by four consecutive years of budget cuts as the nation's greatest recession wears on, the country's public schools have found themselves operating under increasingly tighter fiscal constraints while facing ever-changing demands and enrollments. Reductions in financial support to schools at the federal level have compounded cutbacks at the…

  15. Reserve capacity of public and private hospitals in response to demand uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Alvarez, Ana; Roibás, David; Wall, Alan

    2012-07-01

    A feature of hospitals is that they face uncertain demand for the services they offer. To cover fluctuations in demand, they need to maintain reserve service capacity in the form of beds, equipment, personnel, etc. to minimize the probability of excess queuing or turning away patients, creating a trade-off between reserve service capacity and economic costs. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show how the reserve capacity established depends on institutional characteristics that can affect the objective of the hospital. In particular, we show that private and public hospitals may provide different levels of reserve capacity. In an empirical application using a panel data set of Spanish hospitals over the period 1996-2006, we model reserve service capacity using a distance frontier approach. Our results show that private hospitals generally react to a lesser extent to demand uncertainty than public hospitals.

  16. Evaluation of real-time data obtained from gravimetric preparation of antineoplastic agents shows medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact: Results of a large-scale, multicentre, multinational, retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terkola, R; Czejka, M; Bérubé, J

    2017-08-01

    Medication errors are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality especially with antineoplastic drugs, owing to their narrow therapeutic index. Gravimetric workflow software systems have the potential to reduce volumetric errors during intravenous antineoplastic drug preparation which may occur when verification is reliant on visual inspection. Our aim was to detect medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact as determined by the rate of prevented medication errors in chemotherapy compounding after implementation of gravimetric measurement. A large-scale, retrospective analysis of data was carried out, related to medication errors identified during preparation of antineoplastic drugs in 10 pharmacy services ("centres") in five European countries following the introduction of an intravenous workflow software gravimetric system. Errors were defined as errors in dose volumes outside tolerance levels, identified during weighing stages of preparation of chemotherapy solutions which would not otherwise have been detected by conventional visual inspection. The gravimetric system detected that 7.89% of the 759 060 doses of antineoplastic drugs prepared at participating centres between July 2011 and October 2015 had error levels outside the accepted tolerance range set by individual centres, and prevented these doses from reaching patients. The proportion of antineoplastic preparations with deviations >10% ranged from 0.49% to 5.04% across sites, with a mean of 2.25%. The proportion of preparations with deviations >20% ranged from 0.21% to 1.27% across sites, with a mean of 0.71%. There was considerable variation in error levels for different antineoplastic agents. Introduction of a gravimetric preparation system for antineoplastic agents detected and prevented dosing errors which would not have been recognized with traditional methods and could have resulted in toxicity or suboptimal therapeutic outcomes for patients undergoing anticancer treatment.

  17. Short term results of complete (D3) vs. standard (D2) mesenteric excision in colon cancer shows improved outcome of complete mesenteric excision in patients with TNM stages I-II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storli, K E; Søndenaa, K; Furnes, B; Nesvik, I; Gudlaugsson, E; Bukholm, I; Eide, G E

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the new method of complete mesocolic excision (CME) with a high (apical) vascular tie (D3 resection) had an immediate effect compared with a conventional (standard) approach even in those patients without lymph node metastases. A cohort of 189 consecutive patients with tumour-nodal-metastasis (TNM) stages I-II and a mean age of 73 years were operated on in the period from January 2007 to December 2008 in three community teaching hospitals. The CME approach (n = 89), used in hospital A, was compared to the standard technique used (n = 105) in two other hospitals, B and C. Lymph node yields from the specimens were used as a surrogate measure of radical resections. Outcome was analysed after a median follow-up of 50.2 months. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.8 % in the CME group and 8.6 % in the standard group. The 3-year overall survival (OS) in the CME group was 88.1 versus 79.0 % (p = 0.003) in the standard group, and the corresponding disease-free survival (DFS) was 82.1 versus 74.3 % (p = 0.026). Cancer-specific survival was 95.2 % in the CME group versus 90.5 % in the standard group (p = 0.067). Age, operative technique, and T category were significant in multiple Cox regressions of OS and DFS. Compared with the standard (D2) approach, introduction of CME surgical management of colon cancer resulted in a significant immediate improvement of 3-year survival for patients with TNM stage I-II tumours as assessed by OS and DFS.

  18. Novel recurrent chromosomal aberrations detected in clonal plasma cells of light chain amyloidosis patients show potential adverse prognostic effect: first results from a genome-wide copy number array analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granzow, Martin; Hegenbart, Ute; Hinderhofer, Katrin; Hose, Dirk; Seckinger, Anja; Bochtler, Tilmann; Hemminki, Kari; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Schönland, Stefan O; Jauch, Anna

    2017-07-01

    Immunoglobulin light chain (AL) amyloidosis is a rare plasma cell dyscrasia characterized by the deposition of abnormal amyloid fibrils in multiple organs, thus impairing their function. In the largest cohort studied up to now of 118 CD138-purified plasma cell samples from previously untreated immunoglobulin light chain amyloidosis patients, we assessed in parallel copy number alterations using high-density copy number arrays and interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (iFISH). We used fluorescence in situ hybridization probes for the IgH translocations t(11;14), t(4;14), and t(14;16) or any other IgH rearrangement as well as numerical aberrations of the chromosome loci 1q21, 8p21, 5p15/5q35, 11q22.3 or 11q23, 13q14, 15q22, 17p13, and 19q13. Recurrent gains included chromosomes 1q (36%), 9 (24%), 11q (24%), as well as 19 (15%). Recurrent losses affected chromosome 13 (29% monosomy) and partial losses of 14q (19%), 16q (14%) and 13q (12%), respectively. In 88% of patients with translocation t(11;14), the hallmark chromosomal aberration in AL amyloidosis, a concomitant gain of 11q22.3/11q23 detected by iFISH was part of the unbalanced translocation der(14)t(11;14)(q13;q32) with the breakpoint in the CCND1/MYEOV gene region. Partial loss of chromosome regions 14q and 16q were significantly associated to gain 1q. Gain 1q21 detected by iFISH almost always resulted from a gain of the long arm of chromosome 1 and not from trisomy 1, whereas deletions on chromosome 1p were rarely found. Overall and event-free survival analysis found a potential adverse prognostic effect of concomitant gain 1q and deletion 14q as well as of deletion 1p. In conclusion, in the first whole genome report of clonal plasma cells in AL amyloidosis, novel aberrations and hitherto unknown potential adverse prognostic effects were uncovered. Copyright© 2017 Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  19. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  20. Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers , Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambou, D.; Weihrauch, D.; Hellwing, V.; Diekkrüger, B.; Höllermann, B.; Gaye, A. T.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers, SenegalWater resources are critical to economic growth and social development. In most African countries, supply of drinking water to satisfy population needs is a key issue because of population growth and climate and land use change. During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand, and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurize Senegal's freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned, to the exploitation of the Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir which can be used extensively as a stable freshwater. Its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery and as a drinking water resource for urban centres, including Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, as well as for the local population and animal herds. To ensure sustainability, a greater understanding of Lake Guiers's water resources and effective management of its use will be required. In this study we developed and quantified future water situation (water availability and demand) in Lake Guiers under scenarios of climate change and population growth until 2050, using the water management model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). The results show that the pressure on Lake Guiers's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition between agriculture and municipal demand site. Decreasing inflows due to climate change will aggravate this situation. WEAP results offer basis to assister lake Guiers water resources manager for an efficient long-term planning and management. Keywords: climate change, population growth , IWRM, Lake Guiers, Senegal

  1. Demand Curves for Hypothetical Cocaine in Cocaine-Dependent Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruner, Natalie R.; Johnson, Matthew W.

    2013-01-01

    Rationale Drug purchasing tasks have been successfully used to examine demand for hypothetical consumption of abused drugs including heroin, nicotine, and alcohol. In these tasks drug users make hypothetical choices whether to buy drugs, and if so, at what quantity, at various potential prices. These tasks allow for behavioral economic assessment of that drug's intensity of demand (preferred level of consumption at extremely low prices) and demand elasticity (sensitivity of consumption to price), among other metrics. However, a purchasing task for cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals has not been investigated. Objectives This study examined a novel Cocaine Purchasing Task and the relation between resulting demand metrics and self-reported cocaine use data. Methods Participants completed a questionnaire assessing hypothetical purchases of cocaine units at prices ranging from $0.01 to $1,000. Demand curves were generated from responses on the Cocaine Purchasing Task. Correlations compared metrics from the demand curve to measures of real-world cocaine use. Results Group and individual data were well modeled by a demand curve function. The validity of the Cocaine Purchasing Task was supported by a significant correlation between the demand curve metrics of demand intensity and Omax (determined from Cocaine Purchasing Task data) and self-reported measures of cocaine use. Partial correlations revealed that after controlling for demand intensity, demand elasticity and the related measure, Pmax, were significantly correlated with real-world cocaine use. Conclusions Results indicate that the Cocaine Purchasing Task produces orderly demand curve data, and that these data relate to real-world measures of cocaine use. PMID:24217899

  2. Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chelmis, Charalampos [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Aman, Saima [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-01-30

    Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

  3. Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Santosh

    2017-05-01

    Using a household survey conducted in 2014, this study estimates price elasticity of demand (PED) for beer, country liquor and spirits in India. Ordinary least-square models were used to estimate the responsiveness in alcohol demand due to price change. A large number of control variables were included to adjust for potential confounding in the model. Inter-district variation in alcohol consumption is adjusted for by including district fixed effects. Alcohol prices are negatively associated with demand for alcoholic beverages. The PED ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.46 for country liquor. Low level of education was positively associated with spirits consumption. The magnitude of elasticity varied by rural-urban, education and gender. Results indicate that a policy mix of price controls and awareness campaigns would be most effective in tackling the adverse effects of harmful drinking in India. The demand for beer, country liquor and spirits is negatively associated with its own price. The elasticity estimates ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.44 for country liquor. The elasticity estimates varied by rural-urban, gender and by education levels of the drinkers.

  4. Credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byiers, Bruce; Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    manager education and business association membership are associated with whether a firm is credit constrained or not. Using our preferred measure of credit constraint suggests that around 43 per cent of the firms surveyed are constrained, and these enterprises would almost triple their debt burden......This paper uses two industrial firm surveys to identify the key determinants of credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing. We construct five different measures of being credit constrained and estimate desired debt demand. Besides firm size and ownership structure, we find evidence that general...

  5. Demand inducement as cheap talk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calcott, P

    1999-12-01

    The doctor-patient interaction is analysed in a game of cheap talk. Causes and consequences of imperfect agency are examined. One form of imperfect agency, supplier-induced demand, is a feature of neologism proof equilibria with some parameter values but not with others. The model is used to evaluate two tests that have been used to test for the existence of supplier-induced demand. The analysis suggests that the two tests, which compare the medical utilization of informed and uninformed consumers, are not valid.

  6. Not all job demands are equal: differentiating job hindrances and job challenges in the job demands-resources model

    OpenAIRE

    Van den Broeck, Anja; De Cuyper, Nele; De Witte, Hans; Vansteenkiste, Maarten

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to integrate the differentiation between two types of job demands, as made in previous studies, in the Job-Demands Resources (JD-R) model. Specifically, this study aimed to examine empirically whether the differentiation between job hindrances and job challenges, next to the category of job resources, accounts for the unexpected positive relationships between particular types of job demands (e.g., workload) and employees' work engagement. Results of confirmatory factor analys...

  7. Does Knowledge Contribute to the Acceptance of Demand Response?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salla Annala

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available More flexible demand side would benefit the electricity markets, networks and sustainable power generation in many ways. The success of demand response programs, however, relies on consumer acceptance. This paper reviews previous studies about acceptability of different kinds of residential demand response programs. Furthermore, it discusses whether consumers who are more aware of the principles and benefits of demand response have more positive attitudes towards demand response programs. The results of the literature review and two survey studies suggest that price and security of supply are currently bigger motives to change consumption behaviour than environmental issues and that the savings expected to trigger any action (and to lead to lasting change in behaviour may be relatively high. Therefore, the framing of demand response programs goals may affect the acceptance. Additionally, consumers seem to prefer simple price structures that remain constant for a long time to more dynamic options.

  8. 46 CFR 169.689 - Demand loads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Electrical Electrical Installations on Vessels of 100 Gross Tons and Over § 169.689 Demand loads. Demand loads must meet § 111.60-7 of this chapter except that smaller demand loads for motor feeders...

  9. Demand Responsive and Energy Efficient Control Technologies andStrategies in Commercial Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Kiliccote, Sila

    2006-09-01

    Commercial buildings account for a large portion of summer peak electric demand. Research results show that there is significant potential to reduce peak demand in commercial buildings through advanced control technologies and strategies. However, a better understanding of commercial buildings contribution to peak demand and the use of energy management and control systems is required to develop this demand response resource to its full potential. The main objectives of the study were: (1) To evaluate the size of contributions of peak demand commercial buildings in the U.S.; (2) To understand how commercial building control systems support energy efficiency and DR; and (3) To disseminate the results to the building owners, facility managers and building controls industry. In order to estimate the commercial buildings contribution to peak demand, two sources of data are used: (1) Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) and (2) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). These two sources indicate that commercial buildings noncoincidental peak demand is about 330GW. The project then focused on technologies and strategies that deliver energy efficiency and also target 5-10% of this peak. Based on a building operations perspective, a demand-side management framework with three main features: (1) daily energy efficiency, (2) daily peak load management and (3) dynamic, event-driven DR are outlined. A general description of DR, its benefits, and nationwide DR potential in commercial buildings are presented. Case studies involving these technologies and strategies are described. The findings of this project are shared with building owners, building controls industry, researchers and government entities through a webcast and their input is requested. Their input is presented in the appendix section of this report.

  10. Radiological consequences of floods in december 2003 in small Camargue at the place known as the Claire Farine. Results of the assessment realised at the demand of the C.L.I. of the Gard; Consequences radiologiques des inondations de decembre 2003 en petite Camargue au lieu dit Claire Farine. Resultats de l'expertise realisee a la demande de la CLI du Gard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyrolle, F.; Duffa, C.; Leprieur, F.; Rolland, B.; Antonelli, C.; Marquet, J.; Saleun, G.; Renaud, Ph

    2004-05-15

    The levels of activities measured in the market gardening are not significantly different from these ones measured in the similar samples that did not received the floods in december 2003. The results of chemical analysis do not show contamination of soils and market gardening. In conclusion, the results of assessment show that the floods of december 2003 in small Camargue at the place called 'Claire Farine) had no significant radiological and chemical consequences. (N.C.)

  11. DISRUPTION MANAGEMENT FOR SUPPLY CHAIN COORDINATION WITH EXPONENTIAL DEMAND FUNCTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The coordination problem of a supply chain comprising one supplier and one retailer under market demand disruption is studied in this article. A novel exponential demand function is adopted, and the penalty cost is introduced explicitly to capture the deviation production cost caused by the market demand disruption. The optimal strategies are obtained for different disruption scale under the centralized mode. For the decentralized mode, it is proved that the supply chain can be fully coordinated by adjusting the price discount policy appropriately when disruption occurs. Furthermore, the authors point out that similar results can be established for more general demand functions that represent different market circumstances if certain assumptions are satisfied.

  12. Chloramine demand estimation using surrogate chemical and microbiological parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Sina; Liu, Sanly; Chow, Christopher W K; van Leeuwen, John; Cook, David; Drikas, Mary; Amal, Rose

    2017-07-01

    A model is developed to enable estimation of chloramine demand in full scale drinking water supplies based on chemical and microbiological factors that affect chloramine decay rate via nonlinear regression analysis method. The model is based on organic character (specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA)) of the water samples and a laboratory measure of the microbiological (Fm) decay of chloramine. The applicability of the model for estimation of chloramine residual (and hence chloramine demand) was tested on several waters from different water treatment plants in Australia through statistical test analysis between the experimental and predicted data. Results showed that the model was able to simulate and estimate chloramine demand at various times in real drinking water systems. To elucidate the loss of chloramine over the wide variation of water quality used in this study, the model incorporates both the fast and slow chloramine decay pathways. The significance of estimated fast and slow decay rate constants as the kinetic parameters of the model for three water sources in Australia was discussed. It was found that with the same water source, the kinetic parameters remain the same. This modelling approach has the potential to be used by water treatment operators as a decision support tool in order to manage chloramine disinfection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Eco-environmental water demands for the Baiyangdian Wetland

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping ZHONG; Zhifeng YANG; Baoshan CUI; Jingling LIU

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the hydrological characters of Baiyangdian Wetland have changed greatly, which, in turn, influence the biotic component, the structure and function of the wetland ecosystem. In order to determine the demands for water resources of ecological wetland system, a method of ecological water level coefficient was suggested to calculate the water resources demands for wetland environment use. This research showed that the minimum coefficient is 0.94 and the optimal coefficient is more than 1.10. According to these two coefficients, the ecological water level and water quantity can be estimated. The results indicate that the amount of the minimal and optimal eco-environmental water require-ments are 0.87×108 and 2.78×108 m3 in average monthly, respectively, with the maximum eco-environmental water requirement in summer and the minimum in winter. The annual change ofeco-environment water demand is in accord-ing with the climate change and hydrological characters. The method of ecological water level emphasizes that wetland ecosystem adapts to the hydrological conditions, so it can be used in practice well.

  14. Socio-Technological Influences on Future Water Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M. Zadeh

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional water supply management approach focuses on (perceived community requirements that must be met, but not on community demands, which are variable. Therefore a paradigm-shift is required to the way water is considered. In this paper two fundamental management measures to influence daily water demand and therefore conservation are considered: (1 Technological efficiency measures (i.e., via adopting water-saving devices; and (2 User behaviour (i.e., how users interact with and use the technologies. Through a newly developed futures framework, the individual and combined impact of these approaches within residential and office buildings are examined. Results show each in isolation has similar impacts (i.e., 55% reduction on domestic water consumption per capita, although the ranges over which user behaviour can operate appears to be far more diverse. Most strikingly, when these measures are considered in combination, greater impact (i.e., 80% reduction could be achieved. Conclusions are drawn as to how far water demand management, through a dual track approach, can go in terms of reducing indoor water consumption of both residential and office users within the UK. The paper provides philosophical arguments for what else is needed in order to secure sufficient, sustainable water supplies within a “liveable” future.

  15. NEW CAR DEMAND MODELING AND FORECASTING USING BASS DIFFUSION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhaimy Ismail

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. The building of Bass diffusion model for forecasting new product within the Malaysian society is presented in this study. The proposed model represents the spread level of new Proton car among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new car. With the limited amount of data available for the new car, a robust Bass model was developed to forecast the sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation shows that the proposed diffusion model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of new Proton car. The proposed diffusion model is shown to forecast more effectively and accurately even with insufficient previous data on the new product.

  16. Negative autoregulation matches production and demand in synthetic transcriptional networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Elisa; Giordano, Giulia; Forsberg, Per-Ola; Murray, Richard M

    2014-08-15

    We propose a negative feedback architecture that regulates activity of artificial genes, or "genelets", to meet their output downstream demand, achieving robustness with respect to uncertain open-loop output production rates. In particular, we consider the case where the outputs of two genelets interact to form a single assembled product. We show with analysis and experiments that negative autoregulation matches the production and demand of the outputs: the magnitude of the regulatory signal is proportional to the "error" between the circuit output concentration and its actual demand. This two-device system is experimentally implemented using in vitro transcriptional networks, where reactions are systematically designed by optimizing nucleic acid sequences with publicly available software packages. We build a predictive ordinary differential equation (ODE) model that captures the dynamics of the system and can be used to numerically assess the scalability of this architecture to larger sets of interconnected genes. Finally, with numerical simulations we contrast our negative autoregulation scheme with a cross-activation architecture, which is less scalable and results in slower response times.

  17. Demand Side Management in Pellet Production: Internal and External Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vigants Haralds

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates a demand side management case study: how to save energy and how research and data analysis help to create an energy management system in a pellet production facility; and shows ways to implement the EU energy efficiency directive in production facilities. The study carried out in this research serves as a far-reaching step that can be taken to improve energy efficiency during the operation mode of technological equipment. The benchmarking methodology is used for analysis of results.

  18. Aggregate Demand and Its Pattern in the Contemporary Russian Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SVETLANA K. DEMCHENKO

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of a correlation analysis of the aggregate demand pattern in the Russian economy. The analysis findings showed maximal dependence of dynamic pattern of the gross domestic product (GDP on consumer spending and the dynamics of government expenditure. The authors revealed a segmented reduction in the growth rate of economic indicators, considered factors that influenced the change in the GDP breakdown as well as suggested and proved the development trends of Russian economy based on the data obtained.

  19. Demand curves for hypothetical cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Matthew W

    2014-03-01

    Drug purchasing tasks have been successfully used to examine demand for hypothetical consumption of abused drugs including heroin, nicotine, and alcohol. In these tasks, drug users make hypothetical choices whether to buy drugs, and if so, at what quantity, at various potential prices. These tasks allow for behavioral economic assessment of that drug's intensity of demand (preferred level of consumption at extremely low prices) and demand elasticity (sensitivity of consumption to price), among other metrics. However, a purchasing task for cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals has not been investigated. This study examined a novel Cocaine Purchasing Task and the relation between resulting demand metrics and self-reported cocaine use data. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing hypothetical purchases of cocaine units at prices ranging from $0.01 to $1,000. Demand curves were generated from responses on the Cocaine Purchasing Task. Correlations compared metrics from the demand curve to measures of real-world cocaine use. Group and individual data were well modeled by a demand curve function. The validity of the Cocaine Purchasing Task was supported by a significant correlation between the demand curve metrics of demand intensity and O max (determined from Cocaine Purchasing Task data) and self-reported measures of cocaine use. Partial correlations revealed that after controlling for demand intensity, demand elasticity and the related measure, P max, were significantly correlated with real-world cocaine use. Results indicate that the Cocaine Purchasing Task produces orderly demand curve data, and that these data relate to real-world measures of cocaine use.

  20. Stem cells show promising results for lymphoedema treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toyserkani, Navid Mohamadpour; Quaade, Marlene Louise; Sheikh, Søren Paludan

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Lymphoedema is a debilitating condition, manifesting in excess lymphatic fluid and swelling of subcutaneous tissues. Lymphoedema is as of yet still an incurable condition and current treatment modalities are not satisfactory. The capacity of mesenchymal stem cells to promote angiogenesis......, secrete growth factors, regulate the inflammatory process, and differentiate into multiple cell types make them a potential ideal therapy for lymphoedema. Adipose tissue is the richest and most accessible source of mesenchymal stem cells and they can be harvested, isolated, and used for therapy...... in a single stage procedure as an autologous treatment. The aim of this paper was to review all studies using mesenchymal stem cells for lymphoedema treatment with a special focus on the potential use of adipose-derived stem cells. A systematic search was performed and five preclinical and two clinical...

  1. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information, then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicted due to a number of factors influencing the process and causing random demand changes. In this case, a supply system must function according to the complete information and with a certain degree of uncertainty. In cases when demand may be defined by some of the laws of the probability theory, we are talking about stochastic demand and a stochastic supply system. Demand can be described by mathematical expectation, mathematical expectation and standard deviation, probability distribution or as a random process. However, there is usually a need for the most complex description, i.e. the complex random process because both intensity of demand and the probability distribution change during the observed intervals. The level of temporal (dynamic series is traditionally considered as a complex phenomenon consisting of four components: - basic tendency of phenomenon development - cyclical impact (long-term, 'ancient' - seasonal effects - random fluctuations. The basic tendency of phenomenon development means a long-term evolution of phenomena. A function that expresses the trajectory of changes of the basic tendency of a phenomenon development in the form of the equation is called a trend. Often, the trend involves time regression; i.e. the coefficients of the proposed functions are often determined by the least squares method. To roughly determine the coefficients of the proposed function, the sum of three and three-point methods are also used. After checking the

  2. Demand Controlled Ventilation and Classroom Ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davies, Molly [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eliseeva, Ekaterina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faulkner, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hong, Tienzen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sullivan, Douglas P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    This document summarizes a research effort on demand controlled ventilation and classroom ventilation. The research on demand controlled ventilation included field studies and building energy modeling.

  3. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    . An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  4. The moral demands of affluence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderholm, Jørn

    2015-01-01

    In 2004, Garrett Cullity made a significant contribution to the literature on what the world’s relatively affluent owe to the world’s relatively poor through the publishing of The Moral Demands of Affluence. In this discussion note, I draw attention to a logical problem in Cullity’s master argument...

  5. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

  6. Faculty Demand in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Danielle

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study is to identify the factors that shift the demand curve for faculty at not-for-profit private institutions. It is unique in that to the author's knowledge no other study has directly addressed the question of how the positive correlation between average faculty salaries and faculty-student ratios can be reconciled with…

  7. Physical Demands Study - Focus Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-26

    and the rounds in the boxes weigh 35 lb, which is lighter than equipment handled in the other physically demanding job tasks already identified...and standards. Ergonomics . 53: 858-871. 40 Appendix A: Questionnaires Completed by Volunteers prior to each Focus Group Interview 1 2 3 4a 4b 5

  8. The Cognitive Demands of Writing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrance, Mark; Jeffery, Gaynor

    1999-01-01

    Writing is a complex activity that places demands on cognitive resources. This volume presents original theory and research exploring the ways in which the sub-components of the writing process (generating and organizing content, producing grammatical sentences, etc.) differ in their cognitive deman

  9. Market demands to Danish pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone

    2001-01-01

    . The study focuses on the development on the most important markets for Danish pork. The countries are Denmark, Japan, UK, Germany, Italy, France, USA, Russia and South Korea. The primary purpose is to identify market demands of importance to the Danish pork sector in order to maintain and strengthen its...

  10. Cotton Demand Dropping in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    The ICAC claimed, global cotton market outlook is bleak in the 2012/2013 annual. Global cotton production is estimated at 25.9 million tons and cotton usage is estimated at 23.4 million tons. Cotton supply will exceed demand; the excess volume will reach 2.4 million tons.

  11. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...

  12. Employer Demands from Business Graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMurray, Stephen; Dutton, Matthew; McQuaid, Ronald; Richard, Alec

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report on research carried out with employers to determine demand for business and management skills in the Scottish workforce. Design/methodology/approach: The research used a questionnaire in which employers were interviewed (either telephone or face to face), completed themselves and returned by e-mail,…

  13. Physical Demand but Not Dexterity Is Associated with Motor Flexibility during Rapid Reaching in Healthy Young Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Christian; Hortobàgyi, Tibor; Bongers, Raoul M.

    2015-01-01

    Healthy humans are able to place light and heavy objects in small and large target locations with remarkable accuracy. Here we examine how dexterity demand and physical demand affect flexibility in joint coordination and end-effector kinematics when healthy young adults perform an upper extremity reaching task. We manipulated dexterity demand by changing target size and physical demand by increasing external resistance to reaching. Uncontrolled manifold analysis was used to decompose variability in joint coordination patterns into variability stabilizing the end-effector and variability de-stabilizing the end-effector during reaching. Our results demonstrate a proportional increase in stabilizing and de-stabilizing variability without a change in the ratio of the two variability components as physical demands increase. We interpret this finding in the context of previous studies showing that sensorimotor noise increases with increasing physical demands. We propose that the larger de-stabilizing variability as a function of physical demand originated from larger sensorimotor noise in the neuromuscular system. The larger stabilizing variability with larger physical demands is a strategy employed by the neuromuscular system to counter the de-stabilizing variability so that performance stability is maintained. Our findings have practical implications for improving the effectiveness of movement therapy in a wide range of patient groups, maintaining upper extremity function in old adults, and for maximizing athletic performance. PMID:25970465

  14. RELATIONSHIP QUALITY AND EXHIBITOR'S PERFORMANCE IN LEISURE TRADE SHOWS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ainhoa Rodríguez; María Dolores Reina; Ramón Rufín

    2015-01-01

    .... Specifically, in the case of leisure trade shows the main purpose is to stimulate the rising leisure market and meet the needs of an increasingly demanding society that calls for new forms of entertainment...

  15. PREDICTION OF DEMAND FOR PRIMARY BOND OFFERINGS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Tkac

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Primary bond markets represent an interesting investment opportunity not only for banks, insurance companies, and other institutional investors, but also for individuals looking for capital gains. Since offered securities vary in terms of their rating, industrial classification, coupon, or maturity, demand of buyers for particular offerings often overcomes issued volume and price of given bond on secondary market consequently rises. Investors might be regarded as consumers purchasing required service according to their specific preferences at desired price. This paper aims at analysis of demand for bonds on primary market using artificial neural networks.Design/methodology: We design a multilayered feedforward neural network trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to estimate demand for individual bonds based on parameters of particular offerings. Outcomes obtained by artificial neural network are compared with conventional econometric methods.Findings: Our results indicate that artificial neural network significantly outperformed standard econometric techniques and on examined sample of primary bond offerings achieved considerably better performance in terms of prediction accuracy and mean squared error.Originality: We show that proposed neural network is able to successfully predict demand for primary obligation offerings based on their specifications. Moreover, we identify relevant parameters of issues which are able to considerably affect total demand for given security.  Our findings might not only help investors to detect marketable securities, but also enable issuing entities to increase demand for their bonds in order to decrease their offering price. 

  16. Demand and Congestion in Multiplex Transportation Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    al-Awwad, Zeyad; Jiang, Shan; González, Marta C.

    2016-01-01

    Urban transportation systems are multimodal, sociotechnical systems; however, while their multimodal aspect has received extensive attention in recent literature on multiplex networks, their sociotechnical aspect has been largely neglected. We present the first study of an urban transportation system using multiplex network analysis and validated Origin-Destination travel demand, with Riyadh’s planned metro as a case study. We develop methods for analyzing the impact of additional transportation layers on existing dynamics, and show that demand structure plays key quantitative and qualitative roles. There exist fundamental geometrical limits to the metro’s impact on traffic dynamics, and the bulk of environmental accrue at metro speeds only slightly faster than those planned. We develop a simple model for informing the use of additional, “feeder” layers to maximize reductions in global congestion. Our techniques are computationally practical, easily extensible to arbitrary transportation layers with complex transfer logic, and implementable in open-source software. PMID:27657738

  17. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  18. Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.; Kannan, Rajgopal; Chelmis, Charalampos; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2016-11-16

    In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D2R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D2R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D2R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

  19. Price Sensitivity of Demand for Prescription Drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne; Skipper, Lars; Skipper, Niels

    2016-01-01

    We investigate price sensitivity of demand for prescription drugs, using drug purchase records for the entire Danish population. We identify price responsiveness by exploiting variation in prices caused by kinked reimbursement schemes and implement a regression kink design. The results suggest so...... price responsiveness with corresponding price elasticities ranging from −0.2 to −0.7. Individuals with chronic disease and especially individuals above the age of 65 respond less to the price of drugs.......We investigate price sensitivity of demand for prescription drugs, using drug purchase records for the entire Danish population. We identify price responsiveness by exploiting variation in prices caused by kinked reimbursement schemes and implement a regression kink design. The results suggest some...

  20. Disaggregating residential water demand for improved forecasts and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, G.; Brookshire, D.; Chermak, J.; Krause, K.; Roach, J.; Stewart, S.; Tidwell, V.

    2003-04-01

    Residential water demand is the product of population and per capita demand. Estimates of per capita demand often are based on econometric models of demand, usually based on time series data of demand aggregated at the water provider level. Various studies have examined the impact of such factors as water pricing, weather, and income, with many other factors and details of water demand remaining unclear. Impacts of water conservation programs often are estimated using simplistic engineering calculations. Partly as a result of this, policy discussions regarding water demand management often focus on water pricing, water conservation, and growth control. Projecting water demand is often a straight-forward, if fairly uncertain process of forecasting population and per capita demand rates. SAHRA researchers are developing improved forecasts of residential water demand by disaggregating demand to the level of individuals, households, and specific water uses. Research results based on high-resolution water meter loggers, household-level surveys, economic experiments and recent census data suggest that changes in wealth, household composition, and individual behavior may affect demand more than changes in population or the stock of landscape plants, water-using appliances and fixtures, generally considered the primary determinants of demand. Aging populations and lower fertility rates are dramatically reducing household size, thereby increasing the number of households and residences for a given population. Recent prosperity and low interest rates have raised home ownership rates to unprecented levels. These two trends are leading to increased per capita outdoor water demand. Conservation programs have succeeded in certain areas, such as promoting drought-tolerant native landscaping, but have failed in other areas, such as increasing irrigation efficiency or curbing swimming pool water usage. Individual behavior often is more important than the household's stock of water

  1. Demand of elderly people for residential care: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, P.; Hamers, J.; Groot, W.; Spreeuwenberg, C.

    2006-01-01

    Background: Because of the rapid aging population, the demand for residential care exceeds availability. This paper presents the results of a study that focuses on the demand of elderly people for residential care and determinants (elderly people's personal characteristics, needs and resources) that

  2. Integrated supply and demand management in operations

    OpenAIRE

    Transchel, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    The goal matching supply with demand, which is the fundament of supply chain management, has changed the role of operations management from pure cost control to value creation. The recent developments of integrating revenue management with supply chain management activities and the resulting successes have indicated the tremendous potential to improve the supply chain performance in the same way that revenue management has revolutionized the airline industry. This thesis investigates how an i...

  3. Battelle estimate of launch service demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, R. J.; Day, J. B.

    1987-01-01

    The annual non-NASA non-DOD demand for launches by non-Soviet services is estimated for the period 1986-2001 on the basis of currently available data. The assumptions and methods employed in generating the bottom-up Outside Users Payload Model, the data sources, and the use of equivalent Space Shuttle flights as a payload measure are explained in detail. The numerical results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and briefly characterized.

  4. Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor A Johnsen

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

  5. Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

    2012-06-01

    Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

  6. Decision Making and the Avoidance of Cognitive Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kool, Wouter; McGuire, Joseph T.; Rosen, Zev B.; Botvinick, Matthew M.

    2010-01-01

    Behavioral and economic theories have long maintained that actions are chosen so as to minimize demands for exertion or work, a principle sometimes referred to as the “law of less work.” The data supporting this idea pertain almost entirely to demands for physical effort. However, the same minimization principle has often been assumed also to apply to cognitive demand. We set out to evaluate the validity of this assumption. In six behavioral experiments, participants chose freely between courses of action associated with different levels of demand for controlled information processing. Together, the results of these experiments revealed a bias in favor of the less demanding course of action. The bias was obtained across a range of choice settings and demand manipulations, and was not wholly attributable to strategic avoidance of errors, minimization of time on task, or maximization of the rate of goal achievement. Remarkably, the effect also did not depend on awareness of the demand manipulation. Consistent with a motivational account, avoidance of demand displayed sensitivity to task incentives and co-varied with individual differences in the efficacy of executive control. The findings reported, together with convergent neuroscientific evidence, lend support to the idea that anticipated cognitive demand plays a significant role in behavioral decision-making. PMID:20853993

  7. Optimal Node Grouping for Water Distribution System Demand Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghwi Jung

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Real-time state estimation is defined as the process of calculating the state variable of interest in real time not being directly measured. In a water distribution system (WDS, nodal demands are often considered as the state variable (i.e., unknown variable and can be estimated using nodal pressures and pipe flow rates measured at sensors installed throughout the system. Nodes are often grouped for aggregation to decrease the number of unknowns (demands in the WDS demand estimation problem. This study proposes an optimal node grouping model to maximize the real-time WDS demand estimation accuracy. This Kalman filter-based demand estimation method is linked with a genetic algorithm for node group optimization. The modified Austin network demand is estimated to demonstrate the proposed model. True demands and field measurements are synthetically generated using a hydraulic model of the study network. Accordingly, the optimal node groups identified by the proposed model reduce the total root-mean-square error of the estimated node group demand by 24% compared to that determined by engineering knowledge. Based on the results, more pipe flow sensors should be installed to measure small flows and to further enhance the demand estimation accuracy.

  8. Supplier-induced demand: re-examining identification and misspecification in cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Stuart J; Richardson, Jeffrey R J

    2007-09-01

    This paper re-examines criticisms of cross-sectional methods used to test for supplier-induced demand (SID) and re-evaluates the empirical evidence using data from Australian medical services. Cross-sectional studies of SID have been criticised on two grounds. First, and most important, the inclusion of the doctor supply in the demand equation leads to an identification problem. This criticism is shown to be invalid, as the doctor supply variable is stochastic and depends upon a variety of other variables including the desirability of the location. Second, cross-sectional studies of SID fail diagnostic tests and produce artefactual findings due to model misspecification. Contrary to this, the re-evaluation of cross-sectional Australian data indicate that demand equations that do not include the doctor supply are misspecified. Empirical evidence from the re-evaluation of Australian medical services data supports the notion of SID. Demand and supply equations are well specified and have very good explanatory power. The demand equation is identified and the desirability of a location is an important predictor of the doctor supply. Results show an average price elasticity of demand of 0.22 and an average elasticity of demand with respect to the doctor supply of 0.46, with the impact of SID becoming stronger as the doctor supply rises. The conclusion we draw from this paper is that two of the main criticisms of the empirical evidence supporting the SID hypothesis have been inappropriately levelled at the methods used. More importantly, SID provides a satisfactory, and robust, explanation of the empirical data on the demand for medical services in Australia.

  9. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    theory. Both results would not necessarily be achieved using standard econometric methods. The final chapter "Daylight Time and Energy" uses a quasi-experiment to evaluate a popular energy conservation policy: we challenge the conventional wisdom that extending Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces energy demand. Using detailed panel data on half-hourly electricity consumption, prices, and weather conditions from four Australian states we employ a novel 'triple-difference' technique to test the electricity-saving hypothesis. We show that the extension failed to reduce electricity demand and instead increased electricity prices. We also apply the most sophisticated electricity simulation model available in the literature to the Australian data. We find that prior simulation models significantly overstate electricity savings. Our results suggest that extending DST will fail as an instrument to save energy resources.

  10. On the demand for prescription drugs: heterogeneity in price responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skipper, Niels

    2013-07-01

    This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for prescription drugs using an exogenous shift in consumer co-payment caused by a reform in the Danish subsidy scheme for the general public. Using purchasing records for the entire Danish population, I show that the average price response for the most commonly used drug yields demand elasticities in the range of -0.36 to -0.5. The reform is shown to affect women, the elderly, and immigrants the most. Furthermore, this paper shows significant heterogeneity in the price response over different types of antibiotics, suggesting that the price elasticity of demand varies considerably even across relatively similar drugs.

  11. Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

    2012-03-01

    The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

  12. Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California Wastewater Treatment Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wray, Craig [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-30

    Previous research over a period of six years has identified wastewater treatment facilities as good candidates for demand response (DR), automated demand response (Auto-­DR), and Energy Efficiency (EE) measures. This report summarizes that work, including the characteristics of wastewater treatment facilities, the nature of the wastewater stream, energy used and demand, as well as details of the wastewater treatment process. It also discusses control systems and automated demand response opportunities. Furthermore, this report summarizes the DR potential of three wastewater treatment facilities. In particular, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has collected data at these facilities from control systems, submetered process equipment, utility electricity demand records, and governmental weather stations. The collected data were then used to generate a summary of wastewater power demand, factors affecting that demand, and demand response capabilities. These case studies show that facilities that have implemented energy efficiency measures and that have centralized control systems are well suited to shed or shift electrical loads in response to financial incentives, utility bill savings, and/or opportunities to enhance reliability of service. In summary, municipal wastewater treatment energy demand in California is large, and energy-­intensive equipment offers significant potential for automated demand response. In particular, large load reductions were achieved by targeting effluent pumps and centrifuges. One of the limiting factors to implementing demand response is the reaction of effluent turbidity to reduced aeration at an earlier stage of the process. Another limiting factor is that cogeneration capabilities of municipal facilities, including existing power purchase agreements and utility receptiveness to purchasing electricity from cogeneration facilities, limit a facility’s potential to participate in other DR activities.

  13. A Bound Test Approach to Cointegration of Tourism Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fateh Habibi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Given the high contribution of tourism industry in the Malaysian economy, Malaysia has a vast view to increase its market share of the international tourist arrivals in the Asia Pacific region. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the long run and short run demand for tourism from top ten markets (country. Approach: To accomplish this objective the ARDL bound test approach to cointegration was carried out for quarterly time series data from 1998:Q1 to 2007: Q3. A three-stage procedure followed to test the direction of causality. In the first stage the order of integration was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips Perron (PP unit root tests. The second stage involved testing for the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between arrivals, income, tourism price, tourism substitute price and travel cost. The third stage involved constructing standard Granger-type causality tests augmented with a lagged error-correction term where the series were cointegrated. Results: The result of ADF and PP unit root tests confirmed that all variables were stationary at first difference. In addition the results indicated that a long run relationship and between variables. Conclusion: The results indicated that tourists from these ten countries seem to be highly sensitive to the price and the alternative destinations are complementary to Malaysia. In addition the results showed that the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS, 2003 had a negative affects significantly affected Malaysia’s tourism demand.

  14. Stochastic optimization model for order acceptance with multiple demand classes and uncertain demand/supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wen; Fung, Richard Y. K.

    2014-06-01

    This article considers an order acceptance problem in a make-to-stock manufacturing system with multiple demand classes in a finite time horizon. Demands in different periods are random variables and are independent of one another, and replenishments of inventory deviate from the scheduled quantities. The objective of this work is to maximize the expected net profit over the planning horizon by deciding the fraction of the demand that is going to be fulfilled. This article presents a stochastic order acceptance optimization model and analyses the existence of the optimal promising policies. An example of a discrete problem is used to illustrate the policies by applying the dynamic programming method. In order to solve the continuous problems, a heuristic algorithm based on stochastic approximation (HASA) is developed. Finally, the computational results of a case example illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the HASA approach, and make the application of the proposed model readily acceptable.

  15. Demand study for advanced dental hygiene educational degrees: part 2: assessing educational demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Annelise Ydstebo; Fottler, Myron; Liberman, Aaron; Pitts, Louise; Wan, Thomas T H

    2011-01-01

    Currently, the debate over the addition of the midlevel provider position for dental hygienists rages on. The midlevel provider (similar to the physician's assistant) in dentistry exists in a handful of states in various forms, but is hotly contested in many other states. This is the second half of a 2-part study undertaken to add to the current body of knowledge by addressing the clinical needs changing in our population and the associated demand study for additional educational degrees for dental hygienists to address these changing needs. Part 1 addressed a literature update on oral health and systemic correlations contributing to our populations' declining health conditions, whereas part 2 illustrates the results of the demand study. It attempts to benchmark "adequate demand" and applies the stakeholder theory as its theoretical framework.

  16. DataBase on demand

    CERN Document Server

    Aparicio, Ruben Gaspar; Coterillo Coz, I

    2012-01-01

    At CERN a number of key database applications are running on user-managed MySQL database services. The database on demand project was born out of an idea to provide the CERN user community with an environment to develop and run database services outside of the actual centralised Oracle based database services. The Database on Demand (DBoD) empowers the user to perform certain actions that had been traditionally done by database administrators, DBA's, providing an enterprise platform for database applications. It also allows the CERN user community to run different database engines, e.g. presently open community version of MySQL and single instance Oracle database server. This article describes a technology approach to face this challenge, a service level agreement, the SLA that the project provides, and an evolution of possible scenarios.

  17. DataBase on Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar Aparicio, R.; Gomez, D.; Coterillo Coz, I.; Wojcik, D.

    2012-12-01

    At CERN a number of key database applications are running on user-managed MySQL database services. The database on demand project was born out of an idea to provide the CERN user community with an environment to develop and run database services outside of the actual centralised Oracle based database services. The Database on Demand (DBoD) empowers the user to perform certain actions that had been traditionally done by database administrators, DBA's, providing an enterprise platform for database applications. It also allows the CERN user community to run different database engines, e.g. presently open community version of MySQL and single instance Oracle database server. This article describes a technology approach to face this challenge, a service level agreement, the SLA that the project provides, and an evolution of possible scenarios.

  18. A methodology for the assessment of potential demand and optimal supply of entrepreneurial microcredit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayi Gavriel Ayayi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a methodology for the assessment of potential demand and optimal supply for microcredit. We show that the total demand is a combination of the demand that stems from the active poor plus the demand generated by a motivator agent among the entrepreneurial non-motivated poor. We use French data to provide an illustration of the assessment of potential demand for microcredit. We also show that the proportion of the potential demand satisfied by a microfinance institution depends on its objective i.e. either it is socially oriented or a profit maximizer.

  19. Efficiency Loss in a Cournot Oligopoly with Convex Market Demand

    CERN Document Server

    Tsitsiklis, John N

    2012-01-01

    We consider a Cournot oligopoly model where multiple suppliers (oligopolists) compete by choosing quantities. We compare the social welfare achieved at a Cournot equilibrium to the maximum possible, for the case where the inverse market demand function is convex. We establish a lower bound on the efficiency of Cournot equilibria in terms of a scalar parameter derived from the inverse demand function, namely, the ratio of the slope of the inverse demand function at the Cournot equilibrium to the average slope of the inverse demand function between the Cournot equilibrium and a social optimum. Also, for the case of a single, monopolistic, profit maximizing supplier, or of multiple suppliers who collude to maximize their total profit, we establish a similar but tighter lower bound on the efficiency of the resulting output. Our results provide nontrivial quantitative bounds on the loss of social welfare for several convex inverse demand functions that appear in the economics literature.

  20. Demand for International Reserves in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yimaz Sinem

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Having an important place in the international monetary system, international reserves held by central bank usually reflect country’s economic strength in terms of international finance and trade. There are many reasons for holding international reserves by central banks such as financing the deficit in the balance of payment, managing the monetary and exchange rate policies, minimizing the negative effects of external shocks and reducing the cost of borrowing. Continuously changing and diversifying characteristics of these reasons affect the demand for reserves depending to the economic conditions of the country. Over the last ten years, there has been a tremendous increase in international reserves held by Turkish Central Bank. From 2002 to 2012, the reserves of the bank have risen from 20 billion dollars to 96 billion dollars, showing an increase more than four times. This sudden and huge increase in the foreign reserves drove us to determine and investigate the factors which induce the Turkish Central Bank to hold high level of reserves. Thus, the purpose of this study is to estimate and analyze the demand for international reserves held by central banks using the buffer stock model in the case of Turkey. The data used in the study is monthly and cover the period of 1990:03-2012:10. The buffer stock model was econometrically estimated by using the OLS method for three different models. Our findings indicate that the opportunity cost affected reserve demand much stronger than the reserve volatility in Turkish case.

  1. Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hua; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Yixuan; Hao, Yu; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Kan

    2017-03-01

    In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.

  2. Demand controlled ventilation; Behovsstyrt ventilasjon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Henning Holm

    2006-07-01

    The terms CAV and VAV have been known terms for many years in the ventilation business. The terms are also included in building regulations, but the time is now right to focus on demand controlled ventilation (DCV). The new building regulations and the accompanying energy framework underline the need for a more nuanced thinking when it comes to controlling ventilation systems. Descriptions and further details of the ventilation systems are provided (ml)

  3. Fish demand and supply projections

    OpenAIRE

    Sverdrup-Jensen, S.

    1997-01-01

    It has been predicted that the global demand for fish for human consumption will increase by more than 50% over the next 15 years. The FAO has projected that the increase in supply will originate primarily from marine fisheries, aquaculture and to a lesser extent from inland fisheries, but with a commensurate price increase. However, there are constraints to increased production in both marine and inland fisheries, such as overfishing, overexploitation limited potential increase and environme...

  4. Genetic Algorithm for Multiuser Discrete Network Design Problem under Demand Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Juan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Discrete network design is an important part of urban transportation planning. The purpose of this paper is to present a bilevel model for discrete network design. The upper-level model aims to minimize the total travel time under a stochastic demand to design a discrete network. In the lower-level model, demands are assigned to the network through a multiuser traffic equilibrium assignment. Generally, discrete network could affect path selections of demands, while the results of the multiuser traffic equilibrium assignment need to reconstruct a new discrete network. An iterative approach including an improved genetic algorithm and Frank-Wolfe algorithm is used to solve the bi-level model. The numerical results on Nguyen Dupuis network show that the model and the related algorithms were effective for discrete network design.

  5. On-Demand Multicasting in Ad-hoc Networks: Performance Evaluation of AODV, ODMRP and FSR

    CERN Document Server

    Rajendiran, M

    2011-01-01

    Adhoc networks are characterized by connectivity through a collection of wireless nodes and fast changing network topology. Wireless nodes are free to move independent of each other which makes routing much difficult. This calls for the need of an efficient dynamic routing protocol. Mesh-based multicast routing technique establishes communications between mobile nodes of wireless adhoc networks in a faster and efficient way. In this article the performance of prominent on-demand routing protocols for mobile adhoc networks such as ODMRP (On Demand Multicast Routing Protocol), AODV (Adhoc on Demand Distance Vector) and FSR (Fisheye State Routing protocol) was studied. The parameters viz., average throughput, packet delivery ration and end-to-end delay were evaluated. From the simulation results and analysis, a suitable routing protocol can be chosen for a specified network. The results show that the ODMRP protocol performance is remarkably superior as compared with AODV and FSR routing protocols. Keywords: MANE...

  6. Technical Demand of Commercial Paddy Farmers in the Context of Labor Transfer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    On the basis of document research,we summed up factors of technical demand of commercial paddy farmers to four aspects:individual characteristics of farmers,natural endowment of resources,factors related to risks,and information factor.Then,we put forward relevant hypotheses.From survey results of 241 farmer households in 4 southwestern provinces(regions),by the binary logistic regression analysis method,we empirically studied influences of the above four factors on technical demand of commercial paddy farmers.Results show that commercial paddy farmers like simple and high yield cultivation technique best,while individual characteristics of farmers,natural endowment of resources,factors related to risks,and information factors are major factors influencing different agricultural technical demand of commercial paddy farmers.

  7. Is the demand for alcoholic beverages in developing countries sensitive to price? Evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Guoqiang; Liu, Feng

    2011-06-01

    Economic literature in developed countries suggests that demand for alcoholic beverages is sensitive to price, with an estimated price elasticity ranging from -0.38 for beer and -0.7 for liquor. However, few studies have been conducted in developing countries. We employ a large individual-level dataset in China to estimate the effects of price on alcohol demand. Using the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey for the years 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006, we estimate two-part models of alcohol demand. Results show the price elasticity is virtually zero for beer and only -0.12 for liquor, which is far smaller than those derived from developed countries. Separate regressions by gender reveals the results are mainly driven by men. The central implication of this study is, while alcohol tax increases can raise government revenue, it alone is not an effective policy to reduce alcohol related problems in China.

  8. Is the Demand for Alcoholic Beverages in Developing Countries Sensitive to Price? Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Liu

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Economic literature in developed countries suggests that demand for alcoholic beverages is sensitive to price, with an estimated price elasticity ranging from −0.38 for beer and −0.7 for liquor. However, few studies have been conducted in developing countries. We employ a large individual-level dataset in China to estimate the effects of price on alcohol demand. Using the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey for the years 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006, we estimate two-part models of alcohol demand. Results show the price elasticity is virtually zero for beer and only −0.12 for liquor, which is far smaller than those derived from developed countries. Separate regressions by gender reveals the results are mainly driven by men. The central implication of this study is, while alcohol tax increases can raise government revenue, it alone is not an effective policy to reduce alcohol related problems in China.

  9. Investigating Comparative Advantages of Advance Demand Information in Presence of Heterogeneous Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Bisheng; Larsen, Christian

    The paper studies aspects of advance demand information and heterogeneous demand in a mathematical model of an inventory system. The concept advance demand information is that customers ahead in time of actual demand place their orders. The concept heterogeneous demand refers to that there are di......The paper studies aspects of advance demand information and heterogeneous demand in a mathematical model of an inventory system. The concept advance demand information is that customers ahead in time of actual demand place their orders. The concept heterogeneous demand refers...

  10. Energy demand and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

    1981-09-01

    During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

  11. Sets in Excess Demand in Ascending Auctions with Unit-Demand Bidders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andersson, T.D.; Andersson, C.; Talman, A.J.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the problem of selling a number of indivisible items to a set of unitdemand bidders. An ascending auction mechanism called the Excess Demand Ascending Auction (EDAA) is defined. The main results demonstrate that EDAA terminates in a finite number of iterations and that the exact

  12. The relationship among customer demand, competitive strategy and manufacturing system functional objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Xu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To ascertain the relationship between the operation system function goal decision making and customer demand and competition strategy, can better discover and integrate all available resources (including important capital resources to achieve business opportunities, the establishment of sustainable competitive ability. Because, to achieve business development lead policymakers take great uncertainty, which led to the investment behavior required for the operational activities of resources also bear the enormous risks. Design/methodology/approach: Through principal component analysis on the data collected by questionnaires, the manuscript obtains dominant factors for customer demand, competitive strategy and manufacturing system functional objectives respectively. By these factors, it tests its three hypotheses with the data from northeast of China and draws some conclusions. Findings: The results show that customer demand have a significant positive effect on competitive strategy; competitive strategy have positive influence on manufacturing system functional objectives; customer demand affect the functional objectives, by competitive strategy. Research limitations/implications: In this research, competitive strategy and manufacturing system functional objectives are influenced by customer demand. The conclusion of the research can provide theoretical guidance for Chinese enterprises which carry out manufacturing system functional objectives. Originality/value: In this research, a new measure questionnaire of competition strategy, customer satisfaction and operating system function goal was used, analyzed the influence factors of time, quality, cost, efficiency, service and environment, on the operation of the system. The study shows that the effect of competition strategy and customer demand has a direct impact on the operating system functions, customer demand through competitive strategy of indirect effects operating system functions.

  13. Social support moderates the impact of demands on burnout and organizational connectedness: a two-wave study of volunteer firefighters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, Jasmine Y; Xanthopoulou, Despoina; Winefield, Anthony H

    2013-01-01

    This two-wave study of volunteers examined the effect of family and friend support on the relationship between volunteer demands (emotional demands and work-home conflict) on the one hand, and burnout (exhaustion and cynicism) and organizational connectedness on the other hand. It was hypothesized that family and friend support would moderate the relationship between (a) demands at Time 1 (T1) and burnout at Time 2 (T2); and (b) demands at T1 and organizational connectedness at T2. Hypotheses were tested among 126 Australian volunteer firefighters, who were followed up over 1 year. Results showed that support moderated the relationship between work-home conflict and exhaustion, but not between emotional demands and exhaustion. In addition, family and friend support moderated the relationship between both volunteer demands at T1 and cynicism and organizational connectedness at T2. These results suggest that support from family and friends is a critical resource in coping with the demands related to volunteer work and may protect volunteers from burnout, while helping them to stay connected to volunteering. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Study on Customer Demands for Product Innovation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Zhiyong; YANG Mingzhong; LI Yibing; LI Jun

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the satisfaction degree of customers' individual demands for products and reduce the risk of the product innovation, the characteristics of customer demands for product innovation are analyzed, and the type and content of customer demands are discussed. Then the framework of customer demands acquisition for product innovation is established. Finally, the prototype system of customer demands information acquisition and product customization for product innovation which takes mobile phone as the example is developed successfully.

  15. Water relations of the tos1 tomato mutant at contrasting evaporative demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurado, Oliva; Albacete, Alfonso; Martínez-Ballesta, M Carmen; Carvajal, Micaela; Pérez-Alfocea, Francisco; Dodd, Ian C; Romero-Aranda, M Remedios

    2009-09-01

    The tos1 (tomato osmotically sensitive) mutant, isolated from an in vitro screen of root growth during osmotic stress, was less sensitive to exogenous ABA, but accumulated more ABA under osmotic stress than WT plants. We assessed growth and water relations characteristics of hydroponically grown tos1 seedlings (in the absence of osmotic stress) at low and high evaporative demands. Growth of tos1 was severely inhibited at both high and low evaporative demands. Twenty DAS, WT and tos1 genotypes had a similar leaf water and turgor potential, but mature tos1 plants (45 day old) showed a significant diurnal loss of leaf turgor, with recovery overnight. Increased evaporative demand increased turgor loss of tos1 plants. High evaporative demand at the beginning of the day decreased stomatal conductance of tos1, without diurnal recovery, thus whole plant transpiration was decreased. De-topped tos1 seedlings showed decreased root hydraulic conductance and had a 1.4-fold increase in root ABA concentration. Impaired root function of tos1 plants failed to meet transpirational water demand and resulted in shoot turgor loss, stomatal closure and growth inhibition.

  16. Demand Side Management in Pellet Production: Internal and External Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigants, Haralds; Blumberga, Dagnija; Veidenbergs, Ivars

    2014-12-01

    This paper demonstrates a demand side management case study: how to save energy and how research and data analysis help to create an energy management system in a pellet production facility; and shows ways to implement the EU energy efficiency directive in production facilities. The study carried out in this research serves as a far-reaching step that can be taken to improve energy efficiency during the operation mode of technological equipment. The benchmarking methodology is used for analysis of results. Internal and external factors and indicators, which affect energy management potential in pellet production are analysed. Analysis of external factors is based on the state legal framework regulating the development of the energy sector. Methodology on the analysis of energy demand includes the internal energy management of an enterprise. The experimental results discussed in this paper show that particular steps, which are oriented to specific use of technological equipment, could play significant role in energy efficiency improvement in industry which is illustrated by the pre-milling process in the pellet production system using power.

  17. Optimal Load Response to Time-of-Use Power Price for Demand Side Management in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    -of-use power price for demand side management in order to save the energy costs as much as possible. 3 typical different kinds of loads (industrial load, residential load and commercial load) in Denmark are chosen as study cases. The energy costs decrease up to 9.6% with optimal load response to time......-of-use power price for different loads. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to time-of-use power price for demand side management generates different load profiles and reduces the load peaks. This kind of load patterns may also have significant effects on the power system normal operation....

  18. Prediction on the Farmland Demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 Based on Food Security

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    According to the cultivated area and grain yield during 1996-2008 and adopting the prediction method of farmland demand based on food security,five indexes,including the cultivated area,grain sown area,yearly food yield per unit area,total population and per capita grain yield,are selected to analyze and predict the farmland demand in Yunnan Province in 2020.As the prediction results of each index show,the total population of Yunnan Province in 2020 will reach 51 464 000,significantly higher than the upper bound(50 million);the per capita food demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 will be 400 kg below the bottom line of the well-off type;food self-sufficient ratio will be respectively given the value of 100%,95% and 90% in three schemes;the prediction will be conducted with the yearly food yield per unit area at an average annual growth rate of 2.5% and 3.0% in two schemes;the rate of grain sowing in 2010 is determined to be 66%.As the prediction results of farmland demand show,there are totally 6 schemes about farmland demand in Yunnan Province obtained through analysis,among them,scheme Ⅰ is difficult to achieve,the prediction results of scheme Ⅳ,Ⅴ and Ⅵ are relatively low,which do not conform to the state policies and regulations to protect farmland and are also not conductive for ensuring the food security;scheme Ⅱ and Ⅲ are close to each other,but scheme Ⅲ obtains better prediction results and determines the farmland demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 based on food security to be 5.9 million so as to ensure the provincial food security and realize the "red line" of basic provincial food self-sufficiency.

  19. The decision optimization of product development by considering the customer demand saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-song Xing

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of over meeting customer demands on the product development process, which is on the basis of the quantitative model of customer demands, development cost and time. Then propose the corresponding product development optimization decision. Design/methodology/approach: First of all, investigate to obtain the customer demand information, and then quantify customer demands weights by using variation coefficient method. Secondly, analyses the relationship between customer demands and product development time and cost based on the quality function deployment and establish corresponding mathematical model. On this basis, put forward the concept of customer demand saturation and optimization decision method of product development, and then apply it in the notebook development process of a company. Finally, when customer demand is saturated, it also needs to prove the consistency of strengthening satisfies customer demands and high attention degree customer demands, and the stability of customer demand saturation under different parameters. Findings: The development cost and the time will rise sharply when over meeting the customer demand. On the basis of considering the customer demand saturation, the relationship between customer demand and development time cost is quantified and balanced. And also there is basically consistent between the sequence of meeting customer demands and customer demands survey results. Originality/value: The paper proposes a model of customer demand saturation. It proves the correctness and effectiveness on the product development decision method.

  20. Home Network Technologies and Automating Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McParland, Charles

    2009-12-01

    Over the past several years, interest in large-scale control of peak energy demand and total consumption has increased. While motivated by a number of factors, this interest has primarily been spurred on the demand side by the increasing cost of energy and, on the supply side by the limited ability of utilities to build sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet unrestrained future demand. To address peak electricity use Demand Response (DR) systems are being proposed to motivate reductions in electricity use through the use of price incentives. DR systems are also be design to shift or curtail energy demand at critical times when the generation, transmission, and distribution systems (i.e. the 'grid') are threatened with instabilities. To be effectively deployed on a large-scale, these proposed DR systems need to be automated. Automation will require robust and efficient data communications infrastructures across geographically dispersed markets. The present availability of widespread Internet connectivity and inexpensive, reliable computing hardware combined with the growing confidence in the capabilities of distributed, application-level communications protocols suggests that now is the time for designing and deploying practical systems. Centralized computer systems that are capable of providing continuous signals to automate customers reduction of power demand, are known as Demand Response Automation Servers (DRAS). The deployment of prototype DRAS systems has already begun - with most initial deployments targeting large commercial and industrial (C & I) customers. An examination of the current overall energy consumption by economic sector shows that the C & I market is responsible for roughly half of all energy consumption in the US. On a per customer basis, large C & I customers clearly have the most to offer - and to gain - by participating in DR programs to reduce peak demand. And, by concentrating on a small number of relatively

  1. Modeling solute transport in distribution networks with variable demand and time step sizes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peyton, Chad E.; Bilisoly, Roger Lee; Buchberger, Steven G. (University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH); McKenna, Sean Andrew; Yarrington, Lane

    2004-06-01

    The effect of variable demands at short time scales on the transport of a solute through a water distribution network has not previously been studied. We simulate flow and transport in a small water distribution network using EPANET to explore the effect of variable demand on solute transport across a range of hydraulic time step scales from 1 minute to 2 hours. We show that variable demands at short time scales can have the following effects: smoothing of a pulse of tracer injected into a distribution network and increasing the variability of both the transport pathway and transport timing through the network. Variable demands are simulated for these different time step sizes using a previously developed Poisson rectangular pulse (PRP) demand generator that considers demand at a node to be a combination of exponentially distributed arrival times with log-normally distributed intensities and durations. Solute is introduced at a tank and at three different network nodes and concentrations are modeled through the system using the Lagrangian transport scheme within EPANET. The transport equations within EPANET assume perfect mixing of the solute within a parcel of water and therefore physical dispersion cannot occur. However, variation in demands along the solute transport path contribute to both removal and distortion of the injected pulse. The model performance measures examined are the distribution of the Reynolds number, the variation in the center of mass of the solute across time, and the transport path and timing of the solute through the network. Variation in all three performance measures is greatest at the shortest time step sizes. As the scale of the time step increases, the variability in these performance measures decreases. The largest time steps produce results that are inconsistent with the results produced by the smaller time steps.

  2. Dimensional structure of the demand control support questionnaire: a Brazilian context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hökerberg, Yara Hahr Marques; Aguiar, Odaleia Barbosa; Reichenheim, Michael; Faerstein, Eduardo; Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus; Passos, Sonia Regina Lambert

    2010-04-01

    According to Karasek, job strain results from an interaction between high demands and low decision latitude. To reassess the dimensional structure and evaluate the internal consistency of demand control support questionnaire (DCSQ), a shortened version of job content questionnaire that was not sufficiently evaluated in validation studies. The study investigated 825 workers who completed the DCSQ in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; to 399 workers, the questionnaire was self-administered at a hospital (2004-2005), and 426 workers were interviewed at nine restaurants (2006-2007). Confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation models was used to test theoretical structure of dimensionality. Internal consistency was evaluated by composite reliability and convergent validity by average variance extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the instrument in three dimensions: demands, skill discretion and decision authority. The best fit model was achieved by removing social support at work and the item repetitive work (skill discretion). A cross-loading from learning new things on demands and an error measurement correlation between work fast and work intense were confirmed. Composite reliability was acceptable for all dimensions, except for demands (0.58), which also showed inadequate average variance extracted (0.32). This final model was confirmed in separate analyses according to work setting, but the loadings of demands were lower for restaurant workers. Our results indicated that skill discretion and decision authority formed two distinct dimensions. Additionally, the item repetitive work should be removed, as well as one of the items work fast or work intense (demands). Future research is still required to confirm these findings.

  3. Utility Sector Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie

    2014-12-01

    This report presents a new approach to estimating the marginal utility sector impacts associated with electricity demand reductions. The method uses publicly available data and provides results in the form of time series of impact factors. The input data are taken from the Energy Information Agency's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections of how the electric system might evolve in the reference case, and in a number of side cases that incorporate different effciency and other policy assumptions. The data published with the AEO are used to define quantitative relationships between demand-side electricity reductions by end use and supply-side changes to capacity by plant type, generation by fuel type and emissions of CO2, Hg, NOx and SO2. The impact factors define the change in each of these quantities per unit reduction in site electricity demand. We find that the relative variation in these impacts by end use is small, but the time variation can be significant.

  4. Demand analysis of tobacco consumption in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Hana; Al-Sadat, Nabilla A M

    2007-11-01

    We estimated the price and income elasticity of cigarette demand and the impact of cigarette taxes on cigarette demand and cigarette tax revenue in Malaysia. The data on cigarette consumption, cigarette prices, and public policies between 1990 and 2004 were subjected to a time-series regression analysis applying the error-correction model. The preferred cigarette demand model specification resulted in long-run and short-run price elasticities estimates of -0.57 and -0.08, respectively. Income was positively related to cigarette consumption: A 1% increase in real income increased cigarette consumption by 1.46%. The model predicted that an increase in cigarette excise tax from Malaysian ringgit (RM) 1.60 to RM2.00 per pack would reduce cigarette consumption in Malaysia by 3.37%, or by 806,468,873 cigarettes. This reduction would translate to almost 165 fewer tobacco-related lung cancer deaths per year and a 20.8% increase in the government excise tax revenue. We conclude that taxation is an effective method of reducing cigarette consumption and tobacco-related deaths while increasing revenue for the government of Malaysia.

  5. Demand for fisheries products in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Yokoyama Sonoda

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Fish consumption per capita in Brazil is relatively modest when compared to other animal proteins. This study analyses the influence of protein prices, other food prices and population income on the fish demand in Brazil. First, the problem of fish supply in Brazil is characterized. It is followed by reviews of the relevant economic theory and methods of Almost Ideal Demand System - AIDS and their elasticity calculations. A descriptive analysis of fish demand in Brazil using the microdata called "Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar" (Familiar Budget Research - POF 2002-2003 is presented. Finally, demand functions and their elasticities are calculated for two different cases: one considering five groups of animal proteins (Chicken; Milk and Eggs; Fish; Processed Proteins and Red Meat and other with seven groups of food categories (Cereals; Vegetables and Fruits; Milky and Eggs; Oils and Condiments; Fish; Other processed foods; and Meats. The main results are: per capita consumption of fish (4.6 kg per inhabitant per year is low in Brazil because few households consume fish. When only households with fish consumption are considered, the per capita consumption would be higher: 27.2 kg per inhabitant per year. The fish consumption in the North-East Region is concentrated in the low-income class. In the Center-South Region, the fish consumption is lower and concentrated in the intermediate income classes. The main substitutes for fish are the processed proteins and not the traditional types of meat, such as chicken and red meat.

  6. Physiological Demands of Flat Horse Racing Jockeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, SarahJane; OʼLoughlin, Gillian; McGoldrick, Adrian; Smyth, Barry; May, Gregory; Warrington, Giles D

    2015-11-01

    The physiological demands of jockeys during competition remain largely unknown, thereby creating challenges when attempting to prescribe sport-specific nutrition and training guidelines. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the physiological demands and energy requirements of jockeys during flat racing. Oxygen uptake (V[Combining Dot Above]O2) and heart rate (HR) were assessed in 18 male trainee jockeys during a race simulation trial on a mechanical horse racing simulator for the typical time duration to cover a common flat race distance of 1,400 m. In addition, 8 male apprentice jockeys participated in a competitive race, over distances ranging from 1,200 to 1,600 m, during which HR and respiratory rate (RR) were assessed. All participants performed a maximal incremental cycle ergometer test. During the simulated race, peak V[Combining Dot Above]O2 was 42.74 ± 5.6 ml·kg·min (75 ± 11% of V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak) and below the mean ventilatory threshold (81 ± 5% of V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak) reported in the maximal incremental cycle test. Peak HR was 161 ± 16 b·min (86 ± 7% of HRpeak). Energy expenditure was estimated as 92.5 ± 18.8 kJ with an associated value of 9.4 metabolic equivalents. During the competitive race trial, peak HR reached 189 ± 5 b·min (103 ± 4% of HRpeak) and peak RR was 50 ± 7 breaths per minute. Results suggest that horse racing is a physically demanding sport, requiring jockeys to perform close to their physiological limit to be successful. These findings may provide a useful insight when developing sport-specific nutrition and training strategies to optimally equip and prepare jockeys physically for the physiological demands of horse racing.

  7. ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN A NORTHERN MEXICO METROPOLITAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas M. Fullerton

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Using an error correction framework, this study analyzes the long- and short-run dynamics of electricity demand in Ciudad Juarez, a large metropolitan economy on Mexico’s northern border. Demand is decomposed into the total number of electricity accounts and electricity usage per customer, each of which is modeled separately. A two-stage least squares approach is used to estimate the per customer electricity demand equations due to the endogeneity of the average price variable. The results indicate sustained growth in population, employment, and income can be expected to exert substantial upward pressure on regional electric power demand. Furthermore, demand is found to be price-inelastic in this metropolitan area, suggesting that rate increases can help raise the revenues necessary to fund expansion of the electrical grid.

  8. Optimum air-demand ratio for maximum aeration efficiency in high-head gated circular conduits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkan, Fahri; Tuna, M Cihat; Baylar, Ahmet; Ozturk, Mualla

    2014-01-01

    Oxygen is an important component of water quality and its ability to sustain life. Water aeration is the process of introducing air into a body of water to increase its oxygen saturation. Water aeration can be accomplished in a variety of ways, for instance, closed-conduit aeration. High-speed flow in a closed conduit involves air-water mixture flow. The air flow results from the subatmospheric pressure downstream of the gate. The air entrained by the high-speed flow is supplied by the air vent. The air entrained into the flow in the form of a large number of bubbles accelerates oxygen transfer and hence also increases aeration efficiency. In the present work, the optimum air-demand ratio for maximum aeration efficiency in high-head gated circular conduits was studied experimentally. Results showed that aeration efficiency increased with the air-demand ratio to a certain point and then aeration efficiency did not change with a further increase of the air-demand ratio. Thus, there was an optimum value for the air-demand ratio, depending on the Froude number, which provides maximum aeration efficiency. Furthermore, a design formula for aeration efficiency was presented relating aeration efficiency to the air-demand ratio and Froude number.

  9. Mapping Urban Heat Demand with the Use of GIS-Based Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Wyrwa

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a bottom-up approach for calculation of the useful heat demand for space heating and hot water preparation using geo-referenced datasets for buildings at the city level. This geographic information system (GIS based approach was applied in the case study for the city of Krakow, where on the one hand the district heat network is well developed, while on the other hand there are still substantial number of buildings burning solid fuels in individual boilers and stoves, causing air pollution. The calculated heat demand was aggregated in the grid with 100 m × 100 m spatial resolution to deliver the heat map depicting the current situation for 21 buildings types. The results show that the residential buildings, in particular one- and multi-family buildings, have the highest share in overall demand for heat. By combining the results with location of the district heat (DH network, the potential areas in its close vicinity that have sufficient heat demand density for developing the net were pointed out. Future evolution in heat demand for space heating in one-family houses was evaluated with the use of deterministic method employing building stock model. The study lays a foundation for planning the development of the heating system at the city level.

  10. The Effect of Temperature on the Electricity Demand: An Empirical Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Kim, I. G.; Park, K. J.; Yoo, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function in Korea with quarterly data of average temperature, GDP and electricity price over the period 2005-2013. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the electricity demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.569 and 0.631 respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. Moreover, long-run income and price elasticities are estimated to be 1.589 and -1.433 respectively. Both of results reveal that the demand for electricity demand is about 15.2℃. It is shown that power of explanation and goodness-of-fit statistics are improved in the use of the lagged dependent variable model rather than conventional model. Acknowledgements: This research was carried out as a part of "Development and application of technology for weather forecast" supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

  11. DEMAND FOR BEEF IN THE PROVINCE OF YOGYAKARTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulistiya

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available RACT Protein consumption level of society in Yogyakarta Province has yet to meet the target, but the beef is a source of animal protein that is easily obtainable. Therefore, research on the analysis of demand for beef in this province needs to be done. Objective: (1 Determine the factors that affect the demand for beef in Yogyakarta. (2 Determine the own price elasticity and income elasticity of demand for beef in this province, and to know the cross-price elasticity of demand for beef to changes in the price of mutton, chicken, rice, and cooking oil. Metode: descriptive statistics, followed by inductive statistics , and hypothesis testing. The data used are primary and secondary data. Data were analyzed by multiple linear regression with the value of t and F tests, and analysis of the coefficient of determination. Results: Taken together, the factors that affect the demand for beef in the province is the price of beef, mutton, chicken, rice, cooking oil, income, number of inhabitants. Individually, beef demand is influenced by the price of beef and income residents. Beef inelastic demand means that beef is the daily necessities that are affordable and easy to obtain population of Yogyakarta Province. The increase in income population does not add to demand for beef. Substitutes of beef in the province is goat and chicken, while the complementary goods are rice and cooking oil.

  12. Demand of elderly people for residential care: an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Groot W

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of the rapid aging population, the demand for residential care exceeds availability. This paper presents the results of a study that focuses on the demand of elderly people for residential care and determinants (elderly people's personal characteristics, needs and resources that are associated with this demand. Furthermore, the accuracy of the waiting list as a reflection of this demand has been examined. Methods 67 elderly people waiting for admission into a home for the elderly, are subjected to semi-structured interviews. The data are analyzed by using multivariate statistics. Results Elderly people who indicate that they would refuse an offer of admission into a home for the elderly feel healthier (p = 0.02, have greater self-care agency (p = 0.02 and perceive less necessity of admission (p Conclusion The results contribute to the understanding of waiting lists and the demand for residential care. It became apparent that not everybody who asks for admission into a home for the elderly, really needed it. The importance of elderly people's resources like social networks and the ability to manage everyday activities in relation to the demand for care became clear. These findings are important because they indicate that resources also play a role in predicting elderly people's demand and as a result can guide the development and the (redesign of adequate health care services.

  13. R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucke, D.; Schröder, Philipp; D., Schumacher,

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and the R&D intensity of the product. We introduce the concept of R&D intensity into a standard Dixit-Stiglitz/Krugman-type setting. R&D activity is treated as a fixed cost of production. Within this framework, sectors...... with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical investigation of export demand for manufactured goods from major industrialised countries. Consequently, real exchange rate changes have an impact on the commodity structure of exports....

  14. Allocating Freight Empty Cars in Railway Networks with Dynamic Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the freight empty cars allocation problem in railway networks with dynamic demands, in which the storage cost, unit transportation cost, and demand in each stage are taken into consideration. Under the constraints of capacity and demand, a stage-based optimization model for allocating freight empty cars in railway networks is formulated. The objective of this model is to minimize the total cost incurred by transferring and storing empty cars in different stages. Moreover, a genetic algorithm is designed to obtain the optimal empty cars distribution strategies in railway networks. Finally, numerical experiments are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

  15. Physical demands during folk dancing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigaeus, E; Kilbom, A

    1980-01-01

    This investigation was undertaken to evaluate the aerobic demands during one of the most popular and demanding Swedish folk dances the "hambo". Six men and six women, ranging in age from 22 to 32, participated. Their physical work capacity was investigated on a bicycle ergometer and a treadmill, using two to three submaximal and one maximal loads. All subjects were moderately well-trained and their average maximal oxygen uptake on the treadmill were 2.5 and 3.7 l/min (42.8 and 53.2 ml/kg . min-1) for women and men, respectively. When dancing the "hambo" the heart rate was telemetered, and the Douglas bag technique was used for measurements of pulmonary ventilation and oxygen uptake. The physical demand during "hambo" dancing was high in all subjects. Oxygen uptake was 38.5 and 37.3 ml/kg . min-1 and heart rate 179 and 172 in women and men, respectively. Women used 90% and men 70% of their maximal aerobic power obtained on the treadmill. The pulmonary ventilation and respiratory quotient of the female subjects were lower when dancing as compared to running, possibly because of voluntary restriction of the movements of the thoracic cage. Some popular Scandinavian folk dances are performed at a speed and with an activity pattern resembling the "hambo", while others are performed at a slower pace. The exercise intensity used in "hambo" is more than sufficient to induce training effects in the average individual provided that the dancing is performed at the frequency and for length of time usually recommended for physical training. For older or less fit people dances with a slow pace can be used for training purposes.

  16. Seismic Energy Demand of Buckling-Restrained Braced Frames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyunhoon; Kim, Jinkoo

    2008-07-01

    In this study seismic analyses of steel structures were carried out to examine the effect of ground motion characteristics and structural properties on energy demands using 60 earthquake ground motions recorded in different soil conditions, and the results were compared with those of previous works. Analysis results show that ductility ratios and the site conditions have significant influence on input energy. The ratio of hysteretic to input energy is considerably influenced by the ductility ratio and the strong motion duration. It is also observed that as the predominant periods of the input energy spectra are significantly larger than those of acceleration response spectra used in the strength design, the strength demand on a structure designed based on energy should be checked especially in short period structures. For that reason framed structures with buckling-restrained-braces (BRBs) were designed in such a way that all the input energy was dissipated by the hysteretic energy of the BRBs, and the results were compared with those designed by conventional strength-based design procedure.

  17. Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

  18. Cost analysis of concepts for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Henning; Ganagin, Waldemar; Hartmann, Kilian; Wachendorf, Michael

    2014-10-01

    With the share of intermittent renewable energies within the electricity system rising, balancing services from dispatchable power plants are of increasing importance. Highlighting the importance of the need to keeping fuel costs for flexible power generation to a minimum, the study aims to identify favourable biogas plant configurations, supplying biogas on demand. A cost analysis of five configurations based on biogas storing and flexible biogas production concepts has been carried out. Results show that additional flexibility costs for a biogas supply of 8h per day range between 2€ and 11€MWh(-1) and for a 72h period without biogas demand from 9€ to 19€MWh(-1). While biogas storage concepts were identified as favourable short term supply configurations, flexible biogas production concepts profit from reduced storage requirements at plants with large biogas production capacities or for periods of several hours without biogas demand.

  19. Forecasting and Analysis of Agricultural Product Logistics Demand in Tibet Based on Combination Forecasting Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenfeng; YANG

    2015-01-01

    Over the years,the logistics development in Tibet has fallen behind the transport. Since the opening of Qinghai-Tibet Railway in2006,the opportunity for development of modern logistics has been brought to Tibet. The logistics demand analysis and forecasting is a prerequisite for regional logistics planning. By establishing indicator system for logistics demand of agricultural products,agricultural product logistics principal component regression model,gray forecasting model,BP neural network forecasting model are built. Because of the single model’s limitations,quadratic-linear programming model is used to build combination forecasting model to predict the logistics demand scale of agricultural products in Tibet over the next five years. The empirical analysis results show that combination forecasting model is superior to single forecasting model,and it has higher precision,so combination forecasting model will have much wider application foreground and development potential in the field of logistics.

  20. [Job Demands-Resources, exhaustion and work engagement in a long-term care institution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, P M; Neri, L; Campanini, P; Francioli, L; Camerino, D; Punzi, S; Fichera, G P; Costa, G

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we aimed at testing the main hypotheses of the Job Demands-Resources model (JD-R) in a sample of employees (n = 205, mainly healthcare workers) of a long-term care institution located in Northern Italy. Hierarchical linear regression analyses show that almost all job demands considered were significantly associated with higher general psycho-physical exhaustion (beta ranging from 0.14 to 0.29), whereas more unfavourable scores in all job resources were associated with lower work engagement (from -0.27 to -0.51). However, also significant cross-over associations were observed, mainly between job resources and exhaustion, with effect sizes comparable with those found for the relationships between job demands and exhaustion. Hence, our study only partially supports the JD-R model. Implications of results for work-related stress management are finally discussed.

  1. Implications of Energy Return on Energy Invested on Future Total Energy Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinuo Deng

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Human society is now at the beginning of a transition from fossil-fuel based primary energy sources to a mixture of renewable and nuclear based energy sources which have a lower Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI than the older fossil based sources. This paper examines the evolution of total energy demand during this transition for a highly idealized energy economy. A simple model is introduced in which the net useful energy output required to operate an economy is assumed to remain fixed while the lower EROEI source gradually replaces the older higher EROEI primary energy source following a logistics substitution model. The results show that, for fixed net useful energy output, total energy demand increases as the ratio EROEInew/EROEIold decreases; total energy demand diverges as EROEInew approaches unity, indicating that the system must collapse in this limit.

  2. Analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina: the impact of price changes on consumption and government revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    German Rodríguez-Iglesias

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption. Materials and methods. Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues. Results. Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affect the demand for cigarettes in Argentina. The long term price elasticity is 0.279 (a 10% increase in real prices reduces cigarette consumption by 2.79% per quarter and the long term income elasticity is 0.411 (a 10% increase in real income raises consumption by 4.11% per quarter. Even in a conservative scenario, imulations show that increasing the price of cigarettes by 100% using excise taxes would maximize revenues and reduce cigarette consumption. Conclusion. There is sufficient room to increase taxes, reducing cigarette consumption, while still increasing tax revenues.

  3. The Dynamic Response Process to Conflicting Institutional Demands in MNC Subsidiaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Alison E.; Decreton, Benoit; Nell, Phillip Christopher;

    2017-01-01

    How do subsidiary managers react when their headquarters managers make requests that conflict with the local environment in which the subsidiary operates? Using data from a subsidiary based in Sub-Saharan Africa and headquartered in Europe, we show that subsidiary managers need more time than...... usually expected to react to headquarters demands. Subsidiary managers sometimes postpone or test headquarters demands before deciding how to respond to them. In addition, subsidiary managers can implement headquarters demands in ways that do not fit the expectations from the headquarters or local actors...... (e.g. customers, suppliers), thus resulting in additional delays. Headquarters managers must be aware that implementation can take longer than they anticipate, particularly for subsidiaries located in environments that differ substantially from the environment of the headquarters....

  4. College students' dominant demand and its differences%大学生优势需求及差异分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张春楠; 冷艳菊; 张志勇

    2013-01-01

    In order to bring college students’ subjectivity into play, quantitative analyses were made of the demand of college students in Liaoning Technical University. Findings show that the dominant demand of college students is the job-hunting demand, the domi-nant demand of each grade is different, and there exists significant differences in the same demand from grade to grade, learning demand and job-hunting demand of male college stu-dents are different from those of female students. Results will help improve the current sit-uation of teaching management.%为调动大学生的主体性,采用定量分析的方法,对辽宁工程技术大学学生的需求现状进行研究。结果表明:择业需求是该校大学生的优势需求;不同年级的优势需求不同,并且不同年级在同种需求上存在显著性差异;男女大学生在学习需求与择业需求上存在显著性差异。研究结果对改善高校教学管理状况具有借鉴意义。

  5. The Impact of Price on Chemical Fertilizer Demand in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John K.Dagsvik

    2012-01-01

    Since 1998,the national policies on chemical fertilizer in China have been concentrated in limiting price plus subsidizing,abolishing agricultural tax,giving direct subsidies to farmers,and other aspects.In order to analyze the impact of national policies on the consumption of chemical fertilizer,this article selects the consumption of chemical fertilizer per unit,chemical fertilizer price index and farmers’net income in different provinces during the period 1998-2007 as variables,to conduct regression analysis of chemical fertilizer expenditure function,and calculate the price elasticity and income elasticity of chemical fertilizer demand in different provinces over the decade based on the regression results.The results show that at present the basic consumption of chemical fertilizer for agricultural development in China is 0.35 t/hm 2 ,and the consumption of chemical fertilizer is excessive in some provinces;the chemical fertilizer market has not been really established,and the price has little impact on demand.This indicates that the chemical fertilizer is essential for agricultural economic development,and it increases along with the increase of farmers’income; the intervention of the national policy in chemical fertilizer price is a fundamental reason for the rising demand for chemical fertilizer.This also to some extent indicates that the policy effect of merely using environmental taxes to change farmers’consumption of chemical fertilizer is limited;there is a need to transform the existing policies purely promoting agricultural economic development,toward giving different subsidies in accordance with whether the farmers’fertilization pattern is beneficial to the environment.

  6. An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to −0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was −0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. PMID:23760657

  7. Nigerian tourists to South Africa: Challenges, expectations and demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikechukwu O. Ezeuduji

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Identification of tourists’ needs and finding ways of satisfying them is crucial to any tourism destination.Research purpose: This paper investigated the challenges, demands and expectations of Nigerian tourists to South Africa.Motivation for the study: Nigeria, along with other African nations, has been identified as one of the core regional source markets with air links to South Africa. Increasing revenue generated from regional tourism is important to South African Tourism.Research design, approach and method: Descriptive statistics and Chi-square tests were used to analyse the data collected using a questionnaire survey of 320 Nigerian tourists to South Africa.Main findings: Results showed that Nigerian tourists visit South Africa mostly for the purposes of business, holiday, visiting friends and relatives, education and medical care. Challenges perceived by these Nigerian tourists visiting South Africa include long waiting time for the visa process in Nigeria, expensive cost of living in South Africa, safety and security problems, not so many airlines to choose from and expensive flight costs. Nigerian tourists mostly expect South Africans to be friendlier and have expectations of linking up with new business partners or performing transactions. They also have a strong demand for shopping, leisure and quality education.Practical/managerial implications: This study recommends a bilateral tourism relationship agreement between the Nigerian and South African governments to ameliorate the visa process; targeted marketing communications by South African Tourism toward Nigerian tourists based on study results; strong police presence and proper policing in South Africa; air transport liberalisation and low-cost carriers implementation for shared economic growth within the African region.Contribution/value-add: No former research has specifically identified Nigerian tourists’ challenges, expectations and demands whilst visiting

  8. Analysis Of Demand For Informal And Formal Credit Among Small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis Of Demand For Informal And Formal Credit Among Small Scale Cassava ... The result of ordinary least square regression model revealed that farm size ... Thus, formal credit market reform in the form of favourable interest rate to ...

  9. Demand chain management | The evolution | Ericsson | ORiON

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal Home > Vol 27, No 1 (2011) > ... The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Demand Chain Management (DCM) are ... for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business.

  10. The impact of job and family demands on partner’s fatigue: A study of Japanese dual-earner parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimazu, Akihito; Bakker, Arnold B.; Demerouti, Evangelia; Shimada, Kyoko; Kawakami, Norito

    2017-01-01

    Objectives This study of Japanese dual-earner couples examined the impact of family and job demands on one’s own and one’s partner’s fatigue as well as gender differences in these effects. Methods A total of 2,502 parents (1,251 couples) were surveyed using a self-administered questionnaire. A crossover model was tested using structural equation modeling. Results The results of structural equation modeling analyses showed that both job and family demands independently exacerbated fatigue. There was an indirect effect of job and family demands on partner fatigue through one’s own fatigue only from husbands to wives. An indirect effect of job demands on partner fatigue through partner’s family demands was identified only from wives to husbands. Furthermore, there were gender differences in the crossover of fatigue. Conclusions This study shows that job and family demands influence family circumstances. When considering means to reduce employees’ fatigue, gender differences in the mechanism of fatigue need to be taken into account. PMID:28235008

  11. Demand Response Valuation Frameworks Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heffner, Grayson

    2009-02-01

    While there is general agreement that demand response (DR) is a valued component in a utility resource plan, there is a lack of consensus regarding how to value DR. Establishing the value of DR is a prerequisite to determining how much and what types of DR should be implemented, to which customers DR should be targeted, and a key determinant that drives the development of economically viable DR consumer technology. Most approaches for quantifying the value of DR focus on changes in utility system revenue requirements based on resource plans with and without DR. This ''utility centric'' approach does not assign any value to DR impacts that lower energy and capacity prices, improve reliability, lower system and network operating costs, produce better air quality, and provide improved customer choice and control. Proper valuation of these benefits requires a different basis for monetization. The review concludes that no single methodology today adequately captures the wide range of benefits and value potentially attributed to DR. To provide a more comprehensive valuation approach, current methods such as the Standard Practice Method (SPM) will most likely have to be supplemented with one or more alternative benefit-valuation approaches. This report provides an updated perspective on the DR valuation framework. It includes an introduction and four chapters that address the key elements of demand response valuation, a comprehensive literature review, and specific research recommendations.

  12. Living with the extreme demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teppo Eskelinen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most of the ethical literature on extreme poverty suggests, that some, if not most, of the incomes of the residents of rich countries ought to be donated to the global poor. Yet complying with this ethical demand becomes increasingly more difficult as the changes in lifestyle in the (postindustrial north demand ever more consumption in order to obtain the necessities for survival in such societies. In this article, I will discuss Peter Singer's famous arguments for the ethical duty to donate one's possessions, and elaborate the conception of needs prevalent in both Singer's theory and the theories of many of his critics. My argument is that we have to recognise a category of needs called 'social necessities' that are neither luxuries nor basic needs. This leads to two main conclusions: first, the space for ethical deliberation on whether to donate to life-saving purposes is socially conditioned; and second, ethical strategies of redistribution ought to be accompanied with institutional changes, which also concern the conditions in wealthy countries.http://dx.doi.org/10.5324/eip.v7i1.1791

  13. Demand Side Bidding. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spahn, Andrew

    2003-12-31

    This document sets forth the final report for a financial assistance award for the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) to enhance coordination between the building operators and power system operators in terms of demand-side responses to Location Based Marginal Pricing (LBMP). Potential benefits of this project include improved power system reliability, enhanced environmental quality, mitigation of high locational prices within congested areas, and the reduction of market barriers for demand-side market participants. NARUC, led by its Committee on Energy Resources and the Environment (ERE), actively works to promote the development and use of energy efficiency and clean distributive energy policies within the framework of a dynamic regulatory environment. Electric industry restructuring, energy shortages in California, and energy market transformation intensifies the need for reliable information and strategies regarding electric reliability policy and practice. NARUC promotes clean distributive generation and increased energy efficiency in the context of the energy sector restructuring process. NARUC, through ERE's Subcommittee on Energy Efficiency, strives to improve energy efficiency by creating working markets. Market transformation seeks opportunities where small amounts of investment can create sustainable markets for more efficient products, services, and design practices.

  14. Start point to savings - Better load demand analysis in commercial buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abaravicius, Juozas; Pyrko, Jurek [Lund Univ., Dept of Energy Sciences (Sweden)

    2007-07-01

    Existing installations and energy systems in most commercial buildings could be used in a more efficient way to provide savings - both in terms of energy and load demand. The key for effective operation is a thorough and detailed analysis of energy use patterns that creates essential baseline for energy savings and the development of demand response (DR) strategies. The knowledge of energy demand variations is still very limited and the use of methods to analyse the load demand is rare. Many utilities have recently installed interval (hourly) metering even for smaller commercial users and households. This is a big step forward; however, experience shows that the data is being used only to a limited extent, mostly for billing purposes only. This paper reports about a study conducted with the objective of developing a detailed load demand analysis for commercial buildings. The study results should provide essential information for the formation and evaluation of future DR and energy efficiency strategies. This study was performed in collaboration with IKEA and E.ON and contributes to an ongoing IKEA energy efficiency programme. Two sample department stores in Sweden were selected and analysed within this project. The demand data analysis covers almost 3 years period, 2004-2006.This study contributes to new knowledge of energy use patterns (load demand) in commercial buildings. It proposes solutions of load-related problems, evaluates energy and load savings potential, identifies and analyses the needs, motives and barriers for participation in DR programmes. The study provides recommendations for ongoing and future efficiency and DR strategies and discusses the potential economic benefits from the DR measures.

  15. Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Painter Page R

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4. Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

  16. Accumulative job demands and support for strength use: Fine-tuning the job demands-resources model using conservation of resources theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Woerkom, Marianne; Bakker, Arnold B; Nishii, Lisa H

    2016-01-01

    Absenteeism associated with accumulated job demands is a ubiquitous problem. We build on prior research on the benefits of counteracting job demands with resources by focusing on a still untapped resource for buffering job demands-that of strengths use. We test the idea that employees who are actively encouraged to utilize their personal strengths on the job are better positioned to cope with job demands. Based on conservation of resources (COR) theory, we hypothesized that job demands can accumulate and together have an exacerbating effect on company registered absenteeism. In addition, using job demands-resources theory, we hypothesized that perceived organizational support for strengths use can buffer the impact of separate and combined job demands (workload and emotional demands) on absenteeism. Our sample consisted of 832 employees from 96 departments (response rate = 40.3%) of a Dutch mental health care organization. Results of multilevel analyses indicated that high levels of workload strengthen the positive relationship between emotional demands and absenteeism and that support for strength use interacted with workload and emotional job demands in the predicted way. Moreover, workload, emotional job demands, and strengths use interacted to predict absenteeism. Strengths use support reduced the level of absenteeism of employees who experienced both high workload and high emotional demands. We conclude that providing strengths use support to employees offers organizations a tool to reduce absenteeism, even when it is difficult to redesign job demands.

  17. THE DEMAND FOR MEDICAL COSMETOLOGY: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the demand for medical cosmetology from the perspective of Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao people. We use a questionnaire, and examine the effects of demographic variables on the demand for medical cosmetology. The findings show that demographic variables may lead to significant differences in the most wanted channel, the most wanted surgery, and the acceptable expense. Only monthly income leads to significant differences in the main reason for...

  18. Infrastructure of the information society and its energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souchon, Laetitia; Flipo, Fabrice [INT/ETOS - France Telecom R and D (France); Aebischer, Bernard [ETH Zurich, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE) (Switzerland); Roturier, Jacques (retired from Univ. of Bordeaux, France)

    2007-07-01

    Energy demand of ICT end-use equipment, like personal computers, is considered a potentially important topic for almost 20 years. Policy measures, like the Energy Star Label and worldwide campaigns for low standby consumptions, are now successfully implemented in order that the energy demand of ICT end-use equipment is not growing uncontrolled.But what about energy demand of the infrastructure needed to make use of the ICT end-use equipment? Some previous work will be reported in the field of voice centric telecommunication indicating that energy demand of the infrastructure is growing much faster than energy demand of the phone and reaches for mobile communication up to 90 % of total energy demand. Regarding the infrastructure for internet, a much more complex issue, the energy demand data, as found in the literature, are rather uncertain and partially contradictory. The fraction of energy demand for the infrastructure is probably today of the order of 30 % while mobile communication and other trends being expected to steadily increase then installing the infrastructure as the most important element of future energy demand of ICT. In the present paper, a brief survey of several analyses of the energy demand of the infrastructure for ICT is given in section 1. In section 2, preliminary results of ongoing research presently performed by one of us (LS) in the framework of a France Telecom R and D Programme are presented. Finally, section 3 broadens the problematic to the interaction between ICT and contemporary societal and ecological contexts, as they are interlinked.

  19. Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco, with Potential Adaptation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP has been applied to estimate the current water demands and the increased water demands resulting from climate change. WEAP was calibrated using meteorological and demand observations, then, updated with present-day and future climatic conditions using the Statistical Down-scaling Model with two projections (A2, B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those projections show an increase in temperature of about 2–3 °C and a reduction in precipitation of 40–60% with respect to baseline. The results show that the pressure on Rheraya’s water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water, and that domestic, tourist, livestock and agricultural demands will not be met by the year 2100. The Results also demonstrate that the assessments of adaptation strategies proposed by decision makers are effective but not sustainable for the watershed.

  20. Job stress across gender: the importance of emotional and intellectual demands and social support in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Torres, Pilar; Araque-Padilla, Rafael Angel; Montero-Simó, María José

    2013-01-14

    This study aims to analyse whether any differences exist between the genders with respect to the effect of perceived Job Demands, Control and Support (JDCS model) on how individuals reach high levels of job stress. To do this, the perceived risk of suffering an illness or having an accident in the workplace is used as an outcome measure. The study is based on the First Survey on Working Conditions in Andalusia, which has a sample of 5,496 men and 2,779 women. We carry out a multi-sample analysis with structural equation models, controlling for age and sector. The results show that the generation of job stress has a different pattern in men and women. In the case of men, the results show that only one dimension of the job demands stressor is significant (quantitative demands), whose effect on job stress is weakened slightly by the direct effects of control and support. With women, in contrast, emotional and intellectual aspects (qualitative demands) are also statistically significant. Moreover, social support has a greater weakening effect on the levels of job stress in women than in men. These results suggest that applying the JDCS model in function of the gender will contribute to a greater understanding of how to reduce the levels of job stress in men and women, helping the design of more effective policies in this area.

  1. Job Stress Across Gender: The Importance of Emotional and Intellectual Demands and Social Support in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María José Montero-Simó

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyse whether any differences exist between the genders with respect to the effect of perceived Job Demands, Control and Support (JDCS model on how individuals reach high levels of job stress. To do this, the perceived risk of suffering an illness or having an accident in the workplace is used as an outcome measure. The study is based on the First Survey on Working Conditions in Andalusia, which has a sample of 5,496 men and 2,779 women. We carry out a multi-sample analysis with structural equation models, controlling for age and sector. The results show that the generation of job stress has a different pattern in men and women. In the case of men, the results show that only one dimension of the job demands stressor is significant (quantitative demands, whose effect on job stress is weakened slightly by the direct effects of control and support. With women, in contrast, emotional and intellectual aspects (qualitative demands are also statistically significant. Moreover, social support has a greater weakening effect on the levels of job stress in women than in men. These results suggest that applying the JDCS model in function of the gender will contribute to a greater understanding of how to reduce the levels of job stress in men and women, helping the design of more effective policies in this area.

  2. An EPQ Model with Increasing Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate under Trade Credit Financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan QIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.

  3. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weide Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, seasonal adjustment (S, cross validation (C, general regression neural network (GRNN and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR. The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW and Victorian State (VIC in Australia. Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.

  4. Using Bayesian networks to analyze occupational stress caused by work demands: preventing stress through social support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Herrero, Susana; Mariscal, M A; Gutiérrez, J M; Ritzel, Dale O

    2013-08-01

    Occupational stress is a major health hazard and a serious challenge to the effective operation of any company and represents a major problem for both individuals and organizations. Previous researches have shown that high demands (e.g. workload, emotional) combined with low resources (e.g. support, control, rewards) are associated with adverse health (e.g. psychological, physical) and organizational impacts (e.g. reduced job satisfaction, sickness absence). The objective of the present work is to create a model to analyze how social support reduces the occupational stress caused by work demands. This study used existing Spanish national data on working conditions collected by the Spanish Ministry of Labour and Immigration in 2007, where 11,054 workers were interviewed by questionnaire. A probabilistic model was built using Bayesian networks to explain the relationships between work demands and occupational stress. The model also explains how social support contributes positively to reducing stress levels. The variables studied were intellectually demanding work, overwork, workday, stress, and social support. The results show the importance of social support and of receiving help from supervisors and co-workers in preventing occupational stress. The study provides a new methodology that explains and quantifies the effects of intellectually demanding work, overwork, and workday in occupational stress. Also, the study quantifies the importance of social support to reduce occupational stress.

  5. High visual demand following theta burst stimulation modulates the effect on visual cortex excitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brückner, Sabrina; Kammer, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Modulatory effects of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) depend on the activity of the stimulated cortical area before, during, and even after application. In the present study, we investigated the effects of theta burst stimulation (TBS) on visual cortex excitability using phosphene threshold (PTs). In a between-group design either continuous or intermittent TBS was applied with 100% of individual PT intensity. We varied visual demand following stimulation in form of high demand (acuity task) or low demand (looking at the wall). No change of PTs was observed directly after TBS. We found increased PTs only if subjects had high visual demand following continuous TBS. With low visual demand following stimulation no change of PT was observed. Intermittent TBS had no effect on visual cortex excitability at all. Since other studies showed increased PTs following continuous TBS using subthreshold intensities, our results highlight the importance of stimulation intensity applying TBS to the visual cortex. Furthermore, the state of the neurons in the stimulated cortex area not only before but also following TBS has an important influence on the effects of stimulation, making it necessary to scrupulously control for activity during the whole experimental session in a study.

  6. Permanent demand excess as business strategy: an analysis of the Brazilian higher-education market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Menon Simões Moita

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many Higher Education Institutions (HEIs establish tuition below the equilibrium price to generate permanent demand excess. This paper first adapts Becker’s (1991 theory to understand why the HEIs price in this way. The fact that students are both consumers and inputs on the education production process gives rise to a market equilibrium where some firms have excess demand and charge high prices, and others charge low prices and have empty seats.Second, the paper analyzes this equilibrium empirically. We estimated the demand for undergraduate courses in Business Administration in the State of São Paulo. The results show that tuition, quality of incoming students and percentage of lecturers holding doctorates degrees are the determining factors of students’ choice. Since the student quality determines the demand for a HEI, it is calculated what the value is for a HEI to get better students; that is the total revenue that each HEI gives up to guarantee excess demand. Regarding the “investment” in selectivity, 39 HEIs in São Paulo give up a combined R$ 5 million (or US$ 3.14 million in revenue per year per freshman class, which means 7.6% of the revenue coming from a freshman class.

  7. A Collaborative Strategy for a Three Echelon Supply Chain with Ramp Type Demand, Deterioration and Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Singh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A supply chain system has been investigated in which a single manufacturer procures raw materials from a single supplier, processes them to produce finished products, and then delivers the products to a single retailer. The customer's demand rate is assumed to be time-sensitive in nature (ramp type that allows two-phase variation in the demand and production rate. Our adoption of ramp type demand reflects a real market demand for a newly launched product. Shortages are allowed with partial backlogging of demand (only for the retailer, i.e. the rest represent lost sales. The effects of inflation of the cost parameters and deterioration are also considered separately. We show that the total cost function is convex. Using this convexity, a simple algorithm is presented to determine the optimal order quantity and optimal cycle time for the total cost function. The results are discussed with numerical examples and particular cases of the model discussed briefly. A sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out. (original abstract

  8. A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gagliardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

  9. Analysis Of Factors Affecting Demand Red Chili Pepper Capsicum Annum L In Solok And Effort Fulfillment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulfitriyana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Research on the analysis of the factors that influence the demand for red chilli Capsicum annuum L in Solok and compliance efforts implemented in March s.d April 2016. The purpose of this study consisted of 1 analyze the factors affecting the demand for red chili in Solok 2 analyze the elasticity of demand for red chili in Solok 3 know the effort that can be done to meet the demand of red chilli in Solok. To achieve the objectives of the first and second use secondary data for 15 fifteen years and to achieve the objectives the third used primary data. The method used is descriptive analytical method a method that is used to describe phenomena that exist which takes place in the present or past. The variables were observed in this study is the X1 price of red chilli X2 the price of green chili X3 onion prices X4 population X5 income and Y the number of requests red chili which is then analyzed by multiple linear regression elasticity of demand and SWOT. The results of that research addressing the factors that influence the demand for red chili in Solok is the price of red chilli itself the price of green chili as a substitute goods the number of population and income while onion prices affect the amount of red chili demand in Solok. But simultaneously variable X1 red chili prices X2 the price of green chili X3 onion prices X4 population and X5 income strongly influence demand red chili in Solok where the F test results show that F count F table 212.262 3600 with a significance level 0.000 0.010 and the most influential variable is the variable X4 population with the greatest value of beta Coefficients is 1100. Based on analysis of the elasticity of demand is known that red chili pepper is a normal good is inelastic to price elasticity coefficient value amp603p of -0.120. Green chili is substituting goods and shallots are complements of red chili with cross elasticity coefficient amp603px1 and amp603px2 respectively by 0293 and -0.635. While the

  10. Driving forces behind the Chinese public's demand for improved environmental safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Ting; Wang, Jigan; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

    2017-12-15

    Over the past decades, the public demand for improved environmental safety keeps increasing in China. This study aims to assess the driving forces behind the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety using a provincial and multi-year (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014) panel data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The potential driving forces investigated included population size, income levels, degrees of urbanization, and educational levels. Results show that population size and educational level are positively (Pdemand for improved environmental safety. No significant impact on demand was found due to the degree of urbanization. For the impact due to income level, an inverted U-shaped curve effect with the turning point of ~140,000 CNY GDP per capita is indicated. Since per capita GDP of 2015 in China was approximately 50,000 CNY and far from the turning point, the public demand for improved environmental safety will continue rising in the near future. To meet the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety, proactive and risk prevention based environmental management systems coupled with effective environmental risk communication should be established. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating household water demand using revealed and contingent behaviors: Evidence from Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheesman, Jeremy; Bennett, Jeff; Son, Tran Vo Hung

    2008-11-01

    This article estimates the water demand of households using (1) municipal water exclusively and (2) municipal water and household well water in the capital city of Dak Lak Province in Vietnam. Household water demands are estimated using a panel data set formed by pooling household records of metered municipal water consumption and their stated preferences for water consumption contingent on hypothetical water prices. Estimates show that households using municipal water exclusively have very price inelastic demand. Households using municipal and household well water have more price elastic, but still inelastic, simultaneous water demand and treat municipal water and household well water as substitutes. Household water consumption is influenced by household water storage and supply infrastructure, income, and socioeconomic attributes. The demand estimates are used to forecast municipal water consumption by households in Buon Ma Thuot following an increase to the municipal water tariff to forecast the municipal water supply company's revenue stream following a tariff increase and to estimate the consumer surplus loss resulting from municipal water supply shortages.

  12. Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seunghyoung Ryu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN, a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and relative root mean square error (RRMSE are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

  13. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  14. Evaporative demand, transpiration, and photosynthesis: How are they changing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquhar, G. D.; Roderick, M. L.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon dioxide concentration is increasing. This affects photosynthesis via increases in substrate availability (Farquhar et al. 1980). It reduces the amount of water transpired by plants to fix a given amount of carbon into an organic form; i.e it increases transpiration efficiency (Wong et al. 1979). It also warms the earth's surface. It is commonly supposed that this warming causes an increase in evaporative demand - the rate of water loss from a wet surface. This supposition has then been extended to effects on plant water availability, with the idea that there would be offsets to the gains in productivity associated with increased transpiration efficiency. The assumption that increased temperature means increased evaporative demand has also been applied to global maps of changes in soil water content. However, observations of pan evaporation rate show that this measure of evaporative demand has been decreasing in most areas examined over the last few decades. We reconcile these observations with theory by noting that, on long time scales, warming also involves water bodies, so that the vapour pressure at the earth's surface also increases. Using the physics of pan evaporation (Rotstayn et al. 2006) we show that the reduction in evaporative demand has been associated with two main effects, (1) "dimming", a reduction in sunlight received at the earth's surface because of aerosols and clouds, being the first phenomenon identified (Roderick and Farquhar 2002), and (2) "stilling", a reduction in wind speed, being the second (Roderick et al. 2007). We show that better accounting for changes in evaporative demand is important for estimating soil water changes, particularly in regions where precipitation exceeds evaporative demand (i.e where there are rivers) (Hobbins et al. 2008). We synthesise some of these results with others on vegetation change. References: Farquhar, GD, von Caemmerer, S, and Berry, JA, 1980: A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation

  15. Prospects for European labour demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindley, R M

    1988-07-01

    The impact of economic and technological trends upon the level and structure of labor demand is examined, exploring the methods used to model the labor market and making special reference to demography and technology. Evidence on recent and prospective changes in labor demand is reviewed for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. The models used to explore future employment scenarios usually fail to incorporate the linkages required to fully analyze the various demographic-economic interactions. Further, this is not generally viewed as a limitation, given the time frame of most employment projections and their preoccupation with changes in the structure of labor demand. Medium-term multisectoral models tend to pay more attention to both demographic and technical change, but the treatment of both aspects is limited. The projections provide a framework for considering how both socioeconomic behavior and policy might change to achieve different outcomes. The greater a model's behavioral content, as expressed in its relationships between different variables, the greater the insight obtainable from simulation exercises. The 1st half of the 1970s was characterized by a reduction in German employment, representing the severest of European reactions to the oil crisis. The 2nd half of the decade recorded rapid growth in Italy and the Netherlands. The 1980s started with marked declines in Germany and the UK. Overall, the net gains of the 1970s were lost in the recession following the 2nd oil crisis. In none of the 5 countries studied does any realistic prospect emerge of achieving full employment before 2000. The most optimistic outcome is that unemployment will decline only slowly, it at all. The growth of both new forms and areas of employment will not compensate sufficiently for the loss of jobs elsewhere and the growth of labor supply. The industrial sector will continue to experience change in favor of the service sector but at a slower rate than during

  16. Driving demand for broadband networks and services

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, Raul L

    2014-01-01

    This book examines the reasons why various groups around the world choose not to adopt broadband services and evaluates strategies to stimulate the demand that will lead to increased broadband use. It introduces readers to the benefits of higher adoption rates while examining the progress that developed and emerging countries have made in stimulating broadband demand. By relying on concepts such as a supply and demand gap, broadband price elasticity, and demand promotion, this book explains differences between the fixed and mobile broadband demand gap, introducing the notions of substitution and complementarity between both platforms. Building on these concepts, ‘Driving Demand for Broadband Networks and Services’ offers a set of best practices and recommendations aimed at promoting broadband demand.  The broadband demand gap is defined as individuals and households that could buy a broadband subscription because they live in areas served by telecommunications carriers but do not do so because of either ...

  17. Global nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand outlook

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michel; Prud'homme

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of the world nitrogen fertilizer demand, high-lights trends in the global and regional developments of production capacity and provides a medium-term perspective of the global nitrogen supply/demand balance.

  18. Demands Set Upon Modern Cartographic Visualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Frangeš

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Scientific cartography has the task to develop and research new methods of cartographic visualization. General demands are set upon modern cartographic visualization, which encompasses digital cartography and computer graphics: legibility, clearness, accuracy, plainness and aesthetics. In this paper, it is explained in detail what demands should be met in order to satisfy the general demands set. In order to satisfy the demand of legibility, one should respect conditions of minimal sizes, appropriate graphical density and better differentiation of known features. Demand of clearness needs to be met by fulfilling conditions of simplicity, contrasting quality and layer arrangement of cartographic representation. Accuracy, as the demand on cartographic visualization, can be divided into positioning accuracy and accuracy signs. For fulfilling the demand of plainness, the conditions of symbolism, traditionalism and hierarchic organization should be met. Demand of aesthetics will be met if the conditions of beauty and harmony are fulfilled.

  19. Adaptation of urban roads to changing of transport demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ertman Sergey

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To realize the paradigm of the “Sustainable city” it is necessary well in advance to evaluate the ability of the transport system to meet the raising transport demand to decrease the city network load and reduce the influence on the environment. The index of the network element adaptability can exist as such an evaluation. This article contains general results and conclusions of the investigation, had been carried out on the section of the Tyumen city highway to reveal and predict the transport demand to evaluate the adaptability of the highway elements to meet the demand outlook.

  20. Healthcare Demand in the Presence of Discrete Price Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerfin, Michael; Kaiser, Boris; Schmid, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Deductibles in health insurance generate nonlinear budget sets and dynamic incentives. Using detailed individual health expenditure data from a Swiss health insurer, we estimate the response in healthcare demand to the discrete price increase generated by resetting the deductible at the start of each calendar year. We find that for individuals with high deductibles, healthcare demand drops by 27%. The decrease is most pronounced for inpatient care and prescription drugs. By contrast, for individuals with low deductibles, there is no significant change in healthcare demand (except for prescription drugs). Overall our results suggest that healthy individuals respond much stronger to the price change. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. THE ACCOUNTANT INFORMATION. DEMAND AND OFFER

    OpenAIRE

    Irina CHIRITA; Ioana ZAHEU

    2008-01-01

    The present paper is trying to correlate what Demand and Offer mean, from the economical point of view, which in the end tends towards the demand and offer of the accountant information. The objective of the demand and offer of accountant information is to promo te an efficient financial communication, objective that might be reached through the confrontation of the informational offer with the user’s demand. The information given by the enterprises are the basis of numerous economical and po...

  2. Cache County Water Demand/Supply Model

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, Trevor C.; Norby, Gregory J.; Thyagarajan, Laxman

    1996-01-01

    This report descibes a municipal water demand forecasting model for use in areas of mixed rural and urban housing types. A series of residential demand functions were derived which forecast water demand based on the ype and density of housing and season. Micro sampling techniques were used to correlate water use data and explanatory variable data for low, medium, and high density housing. The demand functions were...

  3. Study on Customer Demands for Product Innovation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Zhiyong; YANG Mingzhong; LI Yibing; LI Jun

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the satisfaction degree of customers' individual demands on products and reduce the risk of the product innovation, the characteristics of customer demands for product innovation are analyzed, and their type and content are discussed. Then the framework of customer demands acquisition for product innovation is established. Finally, the prototype system of customer demands information acquisition and product customization for product innovation which takes mobile phone as the example is developed successfully.

  4. NHS direct: managing demand for primary care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Annabelle L; Shepherd, Ifan D H

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers how NHS Direct is affecting demand for primary care in particular out-of-hours services from GPs. This is reviewed through a 3-year study of NHS Direct and HARMONI, the integrated telephone health helpline based in West London. It describes the policy background and development of the services on the site, and some of the outcomes of the HARMONI commissioned research to answer the question 'Has NHS Direct increased the workload for HARMONI doctors?'. The research adopted both a qualitative and quantitative approach using cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of the data collected. The analysis of the data reveals the issues as both complex and dynamic in nature. The research shows that while there has been no significant change to the total volume of activity, changes within patient groups notably the elderly and children, and in individual GP practices may be significant. In addition, the changes in organizational arrangements may influence significant changes in referral patterns such as GP out-of-hours visits. This was confirmed in the interview data indicating a link between the change in nurses' role from gatekeeper to patient advocate, which happened when they ceased to be employees of the part-time co-op and began to work instead for the 24 hours, 7 days a week NHS Direct service. The conclusions drawn are that behavioural and organizational changes are at least as significant as the evidence-based computerized decision support software in changing the demand for primary care. Further evidence cited is that a different demand pattern of calls was experienced by those local GPs not integrated into out-of-hours provision at NHS Direct West London at the time of the study.

  5. Chahla Chafiq, Demande au Miroir

    OpenAIRE

    Guilyardi, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Le regard est omniprésent dans le premier roman en français de Chahla Chafiq, écrivain et sociologue iranienne exilée en France depuis 1983, reconnue pour ses travaux sur l’islamisme. Le personnage central de Demande au miroir, Guita Salim, regarde la vie de sa fenêtre. « Entre la fenêtre et le voir, il y a toujours un écart », écrit Forough Farrokhzâd, poétesse persane qui illumina les années 1950-1960, dont la poésie traverse ce roman. Adolescente, dans une ruelle de Téhéran, la jeune héroï...

  6. Managing Demands for Social Engagement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glerup, Cecilie

    pressure on the biotech research organizations that find themselves in a jumble of demands to engage themselves with society. Mccarthy and Kelty, for instance, quote a nano-technologist for saying that he is afraid of “too much responsibility” (2010: 407). Based on a laboratory ethnography, this paper...... general public’ or ‘the troops’. The other lab has many diffuse ‘side-activities’ with bio-hackers, government and policy groups, but partly seems to engage in order to stay ahead of policy-makers and protect their core activity, which they find to be ‘basic research’. The paper finally argues...... that the way society’s expectations are managed have severe implications on how research projects are organized and prioritized among the organizations’ employees....

  7. An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to -0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was -0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Break-even Analyses for Random Production and Demand Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marcus Schweitzer

    2002-01-01

    Break-even analyses are often used as controlling instruments. Typically, they are applied to support decision processes or to gain information for the control of profits and sales. Firstly, the study gives an overview of the basic accounting systems. Secondly, the study shows possible ways of performing break-even analyses for a single-stage, make-to-order production in the case of random production and demand structures. To model these structures, queueing systems are employed. As a general result, we see that break-even analyses must always be performed taking into account an existing planning system. Under practical aspects, GI/G/1 systems turn out to map complex real situations realistically. From the examples given it can be concluded that one achieves different results compared with using a deterministic model even in the case of a simple, random effects approach. In particular, it is shown that stochastic modelling in general is helpful in avoiding incorrect decisions.

  9. Enabling Automated Dynamic Demand Response: From Theory to Practice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Aman, Saima; Saeed, Rizwan; Zois, Vasileios; Prasanna, Viktor

    2015-07-14

    Demand response (DR) is a technique used in smart grids to shape customer load during peak hours. Automated DR offers utilities a fine grained control and a high degree of confidence in the outcome. However the impact on the customer's comfort means this technique is more suited for industrial and commercial settings than for residential homes. In this paper we propose a system for achieving automated controlled DR in a heterogeneous environment. We present some of the main issues arising in building such a system, including privacy, customer satisfiability, reliability, and fast decision turnaround, with emphasis on the solutions we proposed. Based on the lessons we learned from empirical results we describe an integrated automated system for controlled DR on the USC microgrid. Results show that while on a per building per event basis the accuracy of our prediction and customer selection techniques varies, it performs well on average when considering several events and buildings.

  10. 7 CFR 987.11 - Trade demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Trade demand. 987.11 Section 987.11 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA Order Regulating Handling Definitions § 987.11 Trade demand. Trade demand means...

  11. 7 CFR 3560.709 - Demand letter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demand letter. 3560.709 Section 3560.709 Agriculture... DIRECT MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Unauthorized Assistance § 3560.709 Demand letter. (a) If a... repayment schedule, the Agency will send the borrower a demand letter specifying: (1) The amount of...

  12. 7 CFR 981.21 - Trade demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Trade demand. 981.21 Section 981.21 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Definitions § 981.21 Trade demand. Trade demand means the quantity of almonds...

  13. 31 CFR 29.511 - Demand letters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Demand letters. 29.511 Section 29.511... Overpayments § 29.511 Demand letters. Except as provided in § 29.516(e), before starting collection action to recover an overpayment, the Benefits Administrator must send a demand letter that informs the debtor in...

  14. Genetic algorithms in seasonal demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Chodak, Grzegorz; Kwaśnicki, Witold

    2000-01-01

    The method of forecasting seasonal demand applying genetic algorithm is presented. Specific form of used demand function is shown in the first section of the article. Next the method of identification of the function parameters using genetic algorithms is discussed. In the final section an example of applying proposed method to forecast real demand process is shown.

  15. Entity’s Irregular Demand Scheduling of the Wholesale Electricity Market based on the Forecast of Hourly Price Ratios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Russkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers a hot issue to forecast electric power demand amounts and prices for the entities of wholesale electricity market (WEM, which are in capacity of a large user with production technology requirements prevailing over hourly energy planning ones. An electric power demand of such entities is on irregular schedule. The article analyses mathematical models, currently applied to forecast demand amounts and prices. It describes limits of time-series models and fundamental ones in case of hourly forecasting an irregular demand schedule of the electricity market entity. The features of electricity trading at WEM are carefully analysed. Factors that influence on irregularity of demand schedule of the metallurgical plant are shown. The article proposes method for the qualitative forecast of market price ratios as a tool to reduce a dependence on the accuracy of forecasting an irregular schedule of demand. It describes the differences between the offered method and the similar ones considered in research studies and scholarly works. The correlation between price ratios and relaxation in the requirements for the forecast accuracy of the electric power consumption is analysed. The efficiency function of forecast method is derived. The article puts an increased focus on description of the mathematical model based on the method of qualitative forecast. It shows main model parameters and restrictions the electricity market imposes on them. The model prototype is described as a programme module. Methods to assess an effectiveness of the proposed forecast model are examined. The positive test results of the model using JSC «Volzhsky Pipe Plant» data are given. A conclusion is drawn concerning the possibility to decrease dependence on the forecast accuracy of irregular schedule of entity’s demand at WEM. The effective trading tool has been found for the entities of irregular demand schedule at WEM. The tool application allows minimizing cost

  16. Risk Assessment of Regional Irrigation Water Demand and Supply in an Arid Inland River Basin of Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Guo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Irrigation water demand accounts for more than 95% of the total water use in the Kaidu-kongqi River Basin. Determination of the spatial and temporal trends in irrigation water demand is important for making sustainable and wise water management strategies in this highly water deficit region. In this study, the spatial and temporal trends in irrigation water demand as well as net crop irrigation water requirements for nine major crops during 1985–2009 were analyzed by combining the Penman-Monteith equation recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO and GIS technology. The regional water stress was also evaluated based on the total irrigation water demand and river discharge at the annual and monthly scales. The results indicated that the annual irrigation water demand in this arid region showed a significant increasing trend during the past 25 years. Total irrigation water demand increased from 14.68 × 108 m3 in 1985 to 34.15 × 108 m3 in 2009. The spatial pattern of total irrigation water demand was significantly affected by the changes in cotton growing area. Due to differences in crop planting structure, the monthly average irrigation water demands in Korla City and Yuli County amounted to the peak in July, while those in other regions reached the maximum in June. Although the annual river runoff was much larger than the irrigation water demand, there was serious water deficit during the critical water use period in May and June in some dry years. The presented study provides important information for managers and planners on sustainable use of water resources in this arid region.

  17. A novel microgrid demand-side management system for manufacturing facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Terance J.

    Thirty-one percent of annual energy consumption in the United States occurs within the industrial sector, where manufacturing processes account for the largest amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions. For this reason, energy efficiency in manufacturing facilities is increasingly important for reducing operating costs and improving profits. Using microgrids to generate local sustainable power should reduce energy consumption from the main utility grid along with energy costs and carbon emissions. Also, microgrids have the potential to serve as reliable energy generators in international locations where the utility grid is often unstable. For this research, a manufacturing process that had approximately 20 kW of peak demand was matched with a solar photovoltaic array that had a peak output of approximately 3 KW. An innovative Demand-Side Management (DSM) strategy was developed to manage the process loads as part of this smart microgrid system. The DSM algorithm managed the intermittent nature of the microgrid and the instantaneous demand of the manufacturing process. The control algorithm required three input signals; one from the microgrid indicating the availability of renewable energy, another from the manufacturing process indicating energy use as a percent of peak production, and historical data for renewable sources and facility demand. Based on these inputs the algorithm had three modes of operation: normal (business as usual), curtailment (shutting off non-critical loads), and energy storage. The results show that a real-time management of a manufacturing process with a microgrid will reduce electrical consumption and peak demand. The renewable energy system for this research was rated to provide up to 13% of the total manufacturing capacity. With actively managing the process loads with the DSM program alone, electrical consumption from the utility grid was reduced by 17% on average. An additional 24% reduction was accomplished when the microgrid

  18. Using Seasonal Forecasts for medium-term Electricity Demand Forecasting on Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Felice, M.; Alessandri, A.; Ruti, P.

    2012-12-01

    Electricity demand forecast is an essential tool for energy management and operation scheduling for electric utilities. In power engineering, medium-term forecasting is defined as the prediction up to 12 months ahead, and commonly is performed considering weather climatology and not actual forecasts. This work aims to analyze the predictability of electricity demand on seasonal time scale, considering seasonal samples, i.e. average on three months. Electricity demand data has been provided by Italian Transmission System Operator for eight different geographical areas, in Fig. 1 for each area is shown the average yearly demand anomaly for each season. This work uses data for each summer during 1990-2010 and all the datasets have been pre-processed to remove trends and reduce the influence of calendar and economic effects. The choice of focusing this research on the summer period is due to the critical peaks of demand that power grid is subject during hot days. Weather data have been included considering observations provided by ECMWF ERA-INTERIM reanalyses. Primitive variables (2-metres temperature, pressure, etc) and derived variables (cooling and heating degree days) have been averaged for summer months. A particular attention has been given to the influence of persistence of positive temperature anomaly and a derived variable which count the number of consecutive days of extreme-days has been used. Electricity demand forecast has been performed using linear and nonlinear regression methods and stepwise model selection procedures have been used to perform a variable selection with respect to performance measures. Significance tests on multiple linear regression showed the importance of cooling degree days during summer in the North-East and South of Italy with an increase of statistical significance after 2003, a result consistent with the diffusion of air condition and ventilation equipment in the last decade. Finally, using seasonal climate forecasts we evaluate

  19. Climate change and its role in forecasting energy demand in buildings: A case study of Douala City, Cameroon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modeste Kameni Nematchoua; Gh R Roshan; René Tchinda; T Nasrabadi; Paola Ricciardi

    2015-02-01

    The foremost role of a building is to assure the comfort of its occupants. The thermal comfort of a building depends on the outdoor climate and requires a demand in energy for heating and cooling. In this paper, demand of energy (heating/cooling) in the buildings is discussed in Douala, Cameroon. Daily data of the last 40 years coming from five weather stations of Cameroon have been studied. Some forecasts have been carried out with 14 GCM models, associated to three future climate scenarios B1, A2, and A1B. However, only INCM3 of General Circulation Model (GCM) and A2 scenario was used. Energy demand in buildings is valued by HDD (heating degree day) and CDD (cooling degree day) indices. Obtained results show that the temperature evolves more quickly in dry season than in rainy season in Douala. Climate rise indicates an increasing demand of energy in the buildings for cooling. Global Douala heating shows a definite effect on outdoor comfort. From 2045 to 2075, the demand of energy for cooling will be superior to 50%. The total demand in energy for heating in the buildings is estimated to be 67.882 kcal from 1970 to 2000 and will be around 67.774 kcal from 2013 to 2043.

  20. Demand of Rural Public Goods in Western Ethnic Minority Areas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    In the context of Development of the West Regions and the construction of new countryside,on the basis of defining the concept of public goods,this article analyzes the status quo and layers of demand of rural public goods in western ethnic minority areas:the demand of rural public goods in ethnic minority areas shows "pyramid" structure,that is,the most basic layer is production-based rural public goods,followed by life-based rural public goods and democratic-management-based rural public goods.Finally the countermeasures for achieving effective demand of rural public goods are put forward as follows:adhere to customers(farmers)-oriented principle;innovate upon the rural residents’ demand expression mechanism of public goods in ethnic minority areas;achieve diversification of supply subject of rural public goods in ethnic minority areas.