WorldWideScience

Sample records for degree day model

  1. Estimating degree day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. H. He

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Degree-day factors are widely used to estimate snowmelt runoff in operational hydrological models. Usually, they are calibrated on observed runoff, and sometimes on satellite snow cover data. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the snowmelt degree-day factor (DDFS directly from MODIS snow covered area (SCA and ground based snow depth data without calibration. Subcatchment snow volume is estimated by combining SCA and snow depths. Snow density is estimated as the ratio of observed precipitation and changes in the snow volume for days with snow accumulation. Finally, DDFS values are estimated as the ratio of changes in the snow water equivalent and degree-day temperatures for days with snow melt. We compare simulations of basin runoff and snow cover patterns using spatially variable DDFS estimated from snow data with those using spatially uniform DDFS calibrated on runoff. The runoff performances using estimated DDFS are slightly improved, and the simulated snow cover patterns are significantly more plausible. The new method may help reduce some of the runoff model parameter uncertainty by reducing the total number of calibration parameters.

  2. On the interest of positive degree day models for mass balance modeling in the inner tropics

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    L. Maisincho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A positive degree-day (PDD model was tested on Antizana Glacier 15α (0.28 km2; 0°28' S, 78°09' W to assess to what extent this approach is suitable for studying glacier mass balance in the inner tropics. Cumulative positive temperatures were compared with field measurements of melting amount and with surface energy balance computations. A significant link was revealed when a distinction was made between the snow and ice comprising the glacier surface. Significant correlations allowed degree-day factors to be retrieved for snow, and clean and dirty ice. The relationship between melt amount and temperature was mainly explained by the role of net shortwave radiation in both melting and in the variations in the temperature of the surface layer. However, this relationship disappeared from June to October (Period 1, because high wind speeds and low humidity cause highly negative turbulent latent heat fluxes. However, this had little impact on the computed total amount of melting at the annual time scale because temperatures are low and melting is generally limited during Period 1. At the daily time scale, melting starts when daily temperature means are still negative, because around noon incoming shortwave radiation is very high, and compensates for energy losses when the air is cold. The PDD model was applied to the 2000–2008 period using meteorological inputs measured on the glacier foreland. Results were compared to the glacier-wide mass balances measured in the field and were good, even though the melting factor should be adapted to the glacier surface state and may vary with time. Finally, the model was forced with precipitation and temperature data from the remote Izobamba station and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, also giving good results and showing that temperature variations are homogenous at the regional scale, meaning glacier mass balances can be modelled over large areas.

  3. Improving the degree-day model for forecasting Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen (Orthoptera: Acridoidea.

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    Xiongbing Tu

    Full Text Available The degree-day (DD model is an important tool for forecasting pest phenology and voltinism. Unfortunately, the DD model is inaccurate, as is the case for the Oriental migratory locust. To improve the existing DD model for this pest, we first studied locust development in seven growth chambers, each of which simulated the complete growing-season climate of a specific region in China (Baiquan, Chengde, Tumotezuoqi, Wenan, Rongan, Qiongzhong, or Qiongshan. In these seven treatments, locusts completed 0.95, 1, 1.1, 2.2, 2.95, 3.95, and 4.95 generations, respectively. Hence, in the Baiquan (700, Rongan (2400, Qiongzhong (3200, and Qiongshan (2400 treatments, the final generation were unable to lay eggs. In a second experiment, we reared locusts for a full generation in growth chambers, at different constant temperatures. This experiment provided two important findings. First, temperatures between 32 and 42°C did not influence locust development rate. Hence, the additional heat provided by temperatures above 32°C did not add to the total heat units acquired by the insects, according to the traditional DD model. Instead, temperatures above 32°C represent overflow heat, and can not be included when calculating total heat acquired during development. We also noted that females raised at constant 21°C failed to oviposit. Hence, temperatures lower than 21°C should be deducted when calculating total heat acquired during adult development. Using our experimental findings, we next micmiked 24-h temperature curve and constructed a new DD model based on a 24-h temperature integral calculation. We then compared our new model with the traditional DD model, results showed the DD deviation was 166 heat units in Langfang during 2011. At last we recalculated the heat by our new DD model, which better predicted the results from our first growth chamber experiment.

  4. Temperature thresholds for degree-day modelling of Greenland ice sheet melt rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broeke, M.R.; Bus, C.; Ettema, J.; Smeets, P.

    2010-01-01

    [1] Degree‐day factors (DDFs) are calculated for the ice sheet ablation zone in southwest Greenland, using measurements of automatic weather stations and a regional atmospheric climate model. The rapid increase of DDFs for snow and ice towards higher elevations is caused by the increasing dominance

  5. A degree-day model initiated by pheromone trap captures for managing pecan nut casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in pecans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Allen E; Muegge, Mark A

    2010-06-01

    Field observations from pecan, Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) Koch, orchards in Texas were used to develop and validate a degree-day model of cumulative proportional adult flight and oviposition and date of first observed nut entry by larvae of the first summer generation of the pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Nuenzig (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). The model was initiated on the date of first sustained capture of adults in pheromone traps. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to determine the sum of degree-days from onset to 99% moth flight and oviposition and the date on which first summer generation larvae were first observed penetrating pecan nuts. Cumulative proportional oviposition (y) was described by a modified Gompertz equation, y = 106.05 x exp(-(exp(3.11 - 0.00669 x (x - 1), with x = cumulative degree-days at a base temperature of 3.33 degrees C. Cumulative proportional moth flight (y) was modeled as y = 102.62 x exp(- (exp(1.49 - 0.00571 x (x - 1). Model prediction error for dates of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90% cumulative oviposition was 1.3 d and 83% of the predicted dates were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. Prediction error for date of first observed nut entry was 2.2 d and 77% of model predictions were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. The model provides ample lead time for producers to implement orchard scouting to assess pecan nut casebearer infestations and to apply an insecticide if needed to prevent economic loss.

  6. The development of the asparagus miner (Ophiomyia simplex Loew; Diptera: Agromyzidae) in temperate zones: a degree-day model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, William R; Andresen, Jeffrey; Szendrei, Zsofia

    2014-07-01

    The asparagus miner is a putative vector of Fusarium spp., which have been implicated in globally declining asparagus production. Growers currently apply broad-spectrum insecticides for the asparagus miner, but lack management guidelines for adequately controlling the pest. Our aims were (1) to determine the lower developmental threshold of the asparagus miner, (2) develop and validate a degree-day model describing its phenology, and (3) create a developmental time budget for the asparagus miner to help guide growers' management decisions. We found that the lower developmental threshold for the asparagus miner was 12.1 °C, and that the phenology of the asparagus miner could be reliably predicted over the course of a two-year study. Predictions from the model match well with previously published information on the bionomics of the asparagus miner, but fit better for sampling data collected from the midwestern and eastern United States than for the United Kingdom. The life cycle of the asparagus miner likely requires between 1500 and 2000 degree-days to complete; the longest developmental time requirement was for the pupal stagen This study provides tools for the targeted management of the asparagus miner by offering a degree-day model that may be used to predict its life stages in the north-eastern United States. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  7. Application of predictive degree day model for field development of sandfly vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in northwest of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Oshaghi

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Temperature plays a significant role in insect’s development where arise in temperature, accelerates the insect’s metabolic rates, increases egg production and makesblood feeding more frequent. It also shortens the time period required for the development ofpathogens within insects. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is one of the most important vector-bornediseases transmitted by different sandfly species. In this study, a phenological model was used toestimate the number of generations, peak activity and temporal variability of sandflies in the mainVL foci in northwest Iran.Methods: Development requirements of different life stages of a Phlebotomus papatasi laboratorycolony were measured and were subjected to the formula for calculation of accumulated degree day(ADD for field sandflies using the online soft (UC IPM, using horizontal cut-off method andsingle triangle model. Sandflies population dynamics was monitored in the field during the seasonalactivity in the region and its association with the ADD was tested using SAS software.Results: Populations of sandflies accommodated well with the amount of accumulated degree days(ADD in the region. During the seasonal activity, a total of 639 ADD were produced which wasenough to support one complete life cycle and growth of the next generation up to late larvalinstar. Larvae of the second generation hibernate through winter and the first adult populationappears in the mid to late June of the next year when they receive at least 182 ADD from thebeginning of the spring. The highest population density of sandflies was observed in early August,followed by a rapid decrease in early September, with the adult population disappearing completelyin late September. This is the first degree day model related to sandflies in the most important VLfoci of Iran.Interpretation & conclusion: Further studies in various regions with variable climate arerecommended in order to better estimate and

  8. Degree-Day Prediction Models for the Flight Phenology of Western Bean Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Assessed with the Concordance Correlation Coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, A A; Moon, R D; Wright, R J; Hunt, T E; Hutchison, W D

    2015-08-01

    Western bean cutworm, Striacosta albicosta (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a native, univoltine pest of corn and dry beans in North America. The current degree-day model for predicting a specified percentage of yearly moth flight involves heat unit accumulation above 10°C after 1 May. However, because the moth's observed range has expanded into the northern and eastern United States, there is concern that suitable temperatures before May could allow for significant S. albicosta development. Daily blacklight moth catch and temperature data from four Nebraska locations were used to construct degree-day models using simple or sine-wave methods, starting dates between 1 January and 1 May, and lower (-5 to 15°C) and upper (20 to 43.3°C) developmental thresholds. Predicted dates of flight from these models were compared with observed flight dates using independent datasets to assess model performance. Model performance was assessed with the concordance correlation coefficient to concurrently evaluate precision and accuracy. The best model for predicting timing of S. albicosta flight used simple degree-day calculations beginning on 1 March, a 3.3°C (38°F) lower threshold, and a 23.9°C (75°F) upper threshold. The revised cumulative flight model indicated field scouting to estimate moth egg density at the time of 25% flight should begin when 1,432 degree-days (2,577 degree-days °F) have accumulated. These results underscore the importance of assessing multiple parameters in phenological models and utilizing appropriate assessment methods, which in this case may allow for improved timing of field scouting for S. albicosta.

  9. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

    2016-09-15

    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (prisk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (pchanges in F. hepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming

  10. Application of predictive degree day model for field development of sandfly vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in northwest of Iran

    OpenAIRE

    M.A. Oshaghi; N. Maleki Ravasan; E Javadian; Y Rassi

    2009-01-01

    Background & objectives: Temperature plays a significant role in insect’s development where arise in temperature, accelerates the insect’s metabolic rates, increases egg production and makesblood feeding more frequent. It also shortens the time period required for the development ofpathogens within insects. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is one of the most important vector-bornediseases transmitted by different sandfly species. In this study, a phenological model was used toestimate the number o...

  11. Automatic Calibration of a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model, Using the Degree-Day Formulation for Snow Melting, Within DMIP2 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frances, F.; Orozco, I.

    2010-12-01

    This work presents the assessment of the TETIS distributed hydrological model in mountain basins of the American and Carson rivers in Sierra Nevada (USA) at hourly time discretization, as part of the DMIP2 Project. In TETIS each cell of the spatial grid conceptualizes the water cycle using six tanks connected among them. The relationship between tanks depends on the case, although at the end in most situations, simple linear reservoirs and flow thresholds schemes are used with exceptional results (Vélez et al., 1999; Francés et al., 2002). In particular, within the snow tank, snow melting is based in this work on the simple degree-day method with spatial constant parameters. The TETIS model includes an automatic calibration module, based on the SCE-UA algorithm (Duan et al., 1992; Duan et al., 1994) and the model effective parameters are organized following a split structure, as presented by Francés and Benito (1995) and Francés et al. (2007). In this way, the calibration involves in TETIS up to 9 correction factors (CFs), which correct globally the different parameter maps instead of each parameter cell value, thus reducing drastically the number of variables to be calibrated. This strategy allows for a fast and agile modification in different hydrological processes preserving the spatial structure of each parameter map. With the snowmelt submodel, automatic model calibration was carried out in three steps, separating the calibration of rainfall-runoff and snowmelt parameters. In the first step, the automatic calibration of the CFs during the period 05/20/1990 to 07/31/1990 in the American River (without snow influence), gave a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) index of 0.92. The calibration of the three degree-day parameters was done using all the SNOTEL stations in the American and Carson rivers. Finally, using previous calibrations as initial values, the complete calibration done in the Carson River for the period 10/01/1992 to 07/31/1993 gave a NSE index of

  12. Climate Prediction Center Weekly Corn Growing Degree Days

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A corn growing degree day (GDD) is an index used to express crop maturity. The index is computed by subtracting a base temperature of 50?F from the average of the...

  13. Accumulated Growing Degree Days, Contiguous United States, 1981 - Current Year

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USA National Phenology Network has available a series of gridded products enabling researchers to analyze current year Accumulated Growing Degree Days (AGDD)...

  14. Change in Annual Heating and Cooling Degree Days by State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This service show changes in heating and cooling degree days by state in the US. Both layers in this service were created by comparing the first 60 years of...

  15. Application of a degree-day model of West Nile virus transmission risk to the East Coast of the United States of America

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    Sarah K. Konrad

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A geographical information systems model that identifies regions of the United States of America (USA susceptible to West Nile virus (WNV transmission risk is presented. This system has previously been calibrated and tested in the western USA; in this paper we use datasets of WNV-killed birds from South Carolina and Connecticut to test the model in the eastern USA. Because their response to WNV infection is highly predictable, American crows were chosen as the primary source for model calibration and testing. Where crow data are absent, other birds are shown to be an effective substitute. Model results show that the same calibrated model demonstrated to work in the western USA has the same predictive ability in the eastern USA, allowing for a continental-scale evaluation of the transmission risk of WNV at a daily time step. The calibrated model is independent of mosquito species and requires inputs of only local maximum and minimum temperatures. Of benefit to the general public and vector control districts, the model predicts the onset of seasonal transmission risk, although it is less effective at identifying the end of the transmission risk season.

  16. Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia – Part 2: A dataset of LGM climates derived from degree-day modelling of palaeo glaciers

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    A. J. Payne

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The study of European and Russian Quaternary glacial-geological evidence during the last 15 years has generated sufficient to data to use former glacial extent as a proxy for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM climate at a continental scale. Utilisation of such data is relevant for two reasons. First, continental to global scale proxy reconstructions of past climate are an important tool in the assessment of retrospective general circulation model (GCM simulations. Second, the development of a multi-proxy approach will result in a more robust proxy based climate signal. A new and independent dataset of 36 LGM climate estimates derived from European and Russian mountain regions is presented in this paper. A simple glacier-climate model was used to establish the optimum LGM climate conditions for each region from a suite of over 4000 model climates using the principle of zero cumulative mass balance. Clear regional trends are present in the reconstructed LGM climates; temperature anomalies north of the Alps are 2°C and 5°C larger than those in the western and eastern Mediterranean, respectively. In Russia the model results suggest that both the Arctic Urals and Puterana Plateau were probably glaciated by small mountain glaciers during the LGM.

  17. Quantitative modeling of degree-degree correlation in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Niño, Alfonso

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to the modeling of degree-degree correlation in complex networks. Thus, a simple function, \\Delta(k', k), describing specific degree-to- degree correlations is considered. The function is well suited to graphically depict assortative and disassortative variations within networks. To quantify degree correlation variations, the joint probability distribution between nodes with arbitrary degrees, P(k', k), is used. Introduction of the end-degree probability function as a basic variable allows using group theory to derive mathematical models for P(k', k). In this form, an expression, representing a family of seven models, is constructed with the needed normalization conditions. Applied to \\Delta(k', k), this expression predicts a nonuniform distribution of degree correlation in networks, organized in two assortative and two disassortative zones. This structure is actually observed in a set of four modeled, technological, social, and biological networks. A regression study performed...

  18. Using degree-days to maximize your pest management tool box

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    Insecticide control is limited by many factors: insecticide coverage, insecticide half-life, insect life stage, and plant growth. Using degree-day models to time insecticide applications accurately is a powerful tactic that increases the efficacy of each insecticide application. Mating disruption op...

  19. Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

  20. An analysis of yearly trends in growing degree days and the relationship between growing degree day values and reference evapotranspiration in Turpan area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Lijun; Wang, Quanjiu; Bai, Yungang

    2013-08-01

    The growth and development of crops is commonly regarded as a function of time alone. However, this approach can be inadequate due to temperatures which vary from year to year caused by global climate change. This prompted the development of the growing degree day concept, which incorporates information on both the passage of time and the temperature experienced by the crop plant during that time. Crop water requirements, which are estimated by multiplying reference evapotranspiration values by a crop-specific coefficient, play a crucial role in the management of hydrologic cycles on arable land. Consequently, it would be useful to identify the relationships between cumulative growing degree days and reference evapotranspiration, in order to develop new methods for predicting crop growth and development periods and calculating reference evapotranspiration. This paper describes annual trends in cumulative growing degree days values and their impact on grape growth. Three different methods for calculating cumulative growing degree days values were evaluated as well. Several key findings were achieved. First, for the period between 1952 and 1995, the cumulative growing degree days values for specific days of the year were normally distributed. Second, the relationship between the relative cumulative growing degree days value and the passage of time can be accurately described by using a cubic polynomial function. Third, the day-to-day change in the average relative cumulative reference evapotranspiration can be described using an exponential function of time, which can be used to calculate the relative cumulative reference evapotranspiration value for any given day of the year. Fourth, there was a significant correlation between the relative cumulative growing degree days and cumulative reference evapotranspiration values during the period between grape budding and maturity, which can be described using a cubic polynomial function. Finally, a new method for

  1. Degree-day accumulation influences annual variability in growth of age-0 walleye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uphoff, Christopher S.; Schoenebeck, Casey W.; Hoback, W. Wyatt; Koupal, Keith D.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2013-01-01

    The growth of age-0 fishes influences survival, especially in temperate regions where size-dependent over-winter mortality can be substantial. Additional benefits of earlier maturation and greater fecundity may exist for faster growing individuals. This study correlated prey densities, growing-degree days, water-surface elevation, turbidity, and chlorophyll a with age-0 walleye Sander vitreus growth in a south-central Nebraska irrigation reservoir. Growth of age-0 walleye was variable between 2003 and 2011, with mean lengths ranging from 128 to 231 mm by fall (September 30th–October 15th). A set of a priori candidate models were used to assess the relative support of explanatory variables using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). A temperature model using the growing degree-days metric was the best supported model, describing 65% of the variability in annual mean lengths of age-0 walleye. The second and third best supported models included the variables chlorophyll a (r2 = 0.49) and larval freshwater drum density (r2 = 0.45), respectively. There have been mixed results concerning the importance of temperature effects on growth of age-0 walleye. This study supports the hypothesis that temperature is the most important predictor of age-0 walleye growth near the southwestern limits of its natural range.

  2. Analysis of variable-base heating and cooling degree-days for Turkey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buyukalaca, Orhan; Bulut, Husamettin; Yilmaz, Tuncay [Cukurova Univ., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Adana (Turkey)

    2001-08-01

    The degree-day method is one of the well-known and the simplest methods used in the Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning industry to estimate heating and cooling energy requirements. In this study, the heating and cooling degree-days for Turkey are determined by using long-term recent measured data. Five different base temperatures ranging from 14 to 22 deg C are chosen in the calculation of heating degree-days. In the case of cooling degree-days, 6 different base temperatures in the range of 18 to 28 deg C are used. Yearly heating and cooling degree-days are given both in tabular form and as counter-maps for all the provinces of Turkey (78 weather stations). (Author)

  3. Infinite-degree-corrected stochastic block model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    In stochastic block models, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman [Karrer and Newman......, Phys. Rev. E 83, 016107 (2011)] incorporates a node degree correction to model degree heterogeneity within each group. Although this demonstrably leads to better performance on several networks, it is not obvious whether modeling node degree is always appropriate or necessary. We formulate the degree...... corrected stochastic block model as a nonparametric Bayesian model, incorporating a parameter to control the amount of degree correction that can then be inferred from data. Additionally, our formulation yields principled ways of inferring the number of groups as well as predicting missing links...

  4. Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-08-04

    Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

  5. Zoning for Day Care (from Models for Day Care Licensing).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day Care and Child Development Council of America, Inc., Washington, DC.

    Recommendations and regulations regarding the zoning of child development day care programs are discussed. Zoning in general is discussed, as is the treatment of child development day care in zoning ordinance, the background of program planning, modular housing, the impelmentation of zoning, and model provisions regarding characteristics of…

  6. Photoperiod and growing degree days effect on dry matter partitioning in Jerusalem artichoke

    Science.gov (United States)

    The effect of photoperiod and growing degree days (GDD) on dry matter and dry partitioning in Jerusalem artichoke was investigated during 2008-09 and 2009-10. Three Jerusalem artichoke genotypes (CN-52867, JA-89 and HEL-65) were planted in 15 day-intervals between with thirteen different dates (Sep...

  7. Citizen science: Plant and insect phenology with regards to degree-days

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daily minimum and maximum temperatures collected from grower-collaborators were used to calculate site specific degree-days. Using our new understanding of Sparganothis phenology, plant phenology were examined relative to moth phenology, allowing us to predict moth development in parallel with plant...

  8. Spatial-altitudinal and temporal variation of Degree Day Factors (DDFs) in the Upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Asif; Attaullah, Haleema; Masud, Tabinda; Khan, Mujahid

    2017-04-01

    Melt contribution from snow and ice in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) region could account for more than 80% of annual river flows in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Increase or decrease in precipitation, energy input and glacier reserves can significantly affect water resources of this region. Therefore improved hydrological modelling and accurate future water resources prediction are vital for food production and hydro-power generation for millions of people living downstream, and are intensively needed. In mountain regions Degree Day Factors (DDFs) significantly vary on spatial and altitudinal basis, and are primary inputs of temperature-based hydrological modelling. However previous studies have used different DDFs as calibration parameters without due attention to the physical meaning of the values employed, and these estimates possess significant variability and uncertainty. This study provides estimates of DDFs for various altitudinal zones in the UIB at sub-basin level. Snow, clean ice and ice with debris cover bear different melt rates (or DDFs), therefore areally-averaged DDFs based on snow, clean and debris-covered ice classes in various altitudinal zones have been estimated for all sub-basins of the UIB. Zonal estimates of DDFs in the current study are significantly different from earlier adopted DDFs, hence suggest a revisit of previous hydrological modelling studies. DDFs presented in current study have been validated by using Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in various sub-basins with good Nash Sutcliffe coefficients (R2 > 0.85) and low volumetric errors (Dv<10%). DDFs and methods provided in the current study can be used in future improved hydrological modelling and to provide accurate predictions of future river flows changes. The methodology used for estimation of DDFs is robust, and can be adopted to produce such estimates in other regions of the, particularly in the nearby other HKH basins.

  9. Comparison of eight degree-days estimation methods in four agroecological regions in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Rodríguez Caicedo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Eight methods were used to estimate degree-days in four Colombian localities. Four methods have been previously proposed in literature: Simple Sine, Double Sine, Simple Triangle, and Double Triangle methods. The other four methods are proposed in this research: Simple Logistic, Double Logistic, Simple Normal, and Double Normal. The estimation of the degree-days through hourly temperature values was used as the reference standard method, and the four localities from where the temperature values were taken were the municipalities of Cajicá (Cundinamarca, Santa Elena (Antioquia, Carepa (Urabá Antioqueño, and Ciudad Bolivar (Zona cafetera Antioqueña. Degree-days obtained by all methods under study were compared through linear regression to those obtained by the reference standard method. There were differences in the correlation of each method to the reference when compared within each region and among regions. The Simple Logistic and Double Logistic methods showed the best performance with acceptable R² values and considerably lower bias than the other methods. The poorest fit was found in Cajicá, where the average R² was 0.571. For the regions of Santa Elena and Carepa, the average R² was 0.756 and 0.733. The best fit was found in Ciudad Bolivar, with an average R² of 0.826.

  10. Distribution of Snow and Maximum Snow Water Equivalent Obtained by LANDSAT Data and Degree Day Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, K.; Ochiai, H.; Takeuchi, S.

    1985-01-01

    Maximum snow water equivalence and snowcover distribution are estimated using several LANDSAT data taken in snowmelting season over a four year period. The test site is Okutadami-gawa Basin located in the central position of Tohoku-Kanto-Chubu District. The year to year normalization for snowmelt volume computation on the snow line is conducted by year to year correction of degree days using the snowcover percentage within the test basin obtained from LANDSAT data. The maximum snow water equivalent map in the test basin is generated based on the normalized snowmelt volume on the snow line extracted from four LANDSAT data taken in a different year. The snowcover distribution on an arbitrary day in snowmelting of 1982 is estimated from the maximum snow water equivalent map. The estimated snowcover is compared with the snowcover area extracted from NOAA-AVHRR data taken on the same day. The applicability of the snow estimation using LANDSAT data is discussed.

  11. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  12. Postmortem Interval Estimation Using Accumulated Degree Days According to the Body’s Decomposition Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özgür Bulut

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Postmortem interval arises one of the most important research topics in worldwide modern forensic science applications. In spite of utilizing morphological, biochemical, flow-cytometric, microbiological, entomological, anthropological, spectroscopic and main postmortem changes in postmortem interval estimation, it does not seem possible to get certain results by only one test or method. Because, there are many physical, chemical and biological processes affecting the parameters. Therefore, postmortem interval estimation needs development of previous methods and implementation of novel methods. In this regard, taphonomic methods need to be improved in postmortem interval estimation and regional factors and climate impact need to be determined by experimental studies. In particular, we are of the opinion that that more accurate estimation of postmortem interval will be achieved by determining regional factor involving postmortem period. This paper aims to evaluate the relationship between postmortem interval and accumulated degree days in respect of decomposition stages. Key Words: Forensic Taphonomy, Postmortem Interval, Forensic Anthropology

  13. Changes In The Heating Degree-days In Norway Due Toglobal Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugen, T. E.; Tveito, O. E.; Hanssen-Bauer, I.

    A continuous spatial representation of temperature improves the possibility topro- duce maps of temperature-dependent variables. A temperature scenario for the period 2021-2050 is obtained for Norway from the Max-Planck-Institute? AOGCM, GSDIO ECHAM4/OPEC 3. This is done by an ?empirical downscaling method? which in- volves the use of empirical links between large-scale fields and local variables to de- duce estimates of the local variables. The analysis is obtained at forty-six sites in Norway. Spatial representation of the anomalies of temperature in the scenario period compared to the normal period (1961-1990) is obtained with the use of spatial interpo- lation in a GIS. The temperature scenario indicates that we will have a warmer climate in Norway in the future, especially during the winter season. The heating degree-days (HDD) is defined as the accumulated Celsius degrees be- tween the daily mean temperature and a threshold temperature. For Scandinavian countries, this threshold temperature is 17 Celsius degrees. The HDD is found to be a good estimate of accumulated cold. It is therefore a useful index for heating energy consumption within the heating season, and thus to power production planning. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures, the length of the heating season and the HDD within this season will decrease in Norway in the future. The calculations of the heating season and the HDD is estimated at grid level with the use of a GIS. The spatial representation of the heating season and the HDD can then easily be plotted. Local information of the variables being analysed can be withdrawn from the spatial grid in a GIS. The variable is prepared for further spatial analysis. It may also be used as an input to decision making systems.

  14. Modification of the degree-day formula for diurnal meltwater generation and refreezing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Howard, Ken W. F.; Ćatović, Zlatko

    2017-01-01

    The standard degree-day, temperature-index approach to calculating snowmelt generation and refreezing (the SDD method) is convenient and popularly used but seriously miscalculates the volumes of water that change phase on days when temperatures fluctuate either side of the freezing point. Additionally, the SDD method does not provide any estimate of the duration of daily melting and refreezing events. A modified version of the standard formula is introduced (the MDD method) that overcomes such problems by removing dependence on a single temperature index (the average daily temperature estimated over a 24-h period beginning at midnight) and instead transfers reliance onto daily air temperature extremes (maximum and minimum temperatures) at known times of occurrence. In this way, the modified formula retains the simplicity of the standard approach while targeting those segments of the diurnal air temperature curve that directly relate to periods of melting and freezing. Newly introduced temperature and time degree-day parameters allow the duration of melting and refreezing events to be estimated. The MDD method was evaluated for two sites in the snow-belt region of Canada where the availability of hourly records of daily temperature allowed the required MDD input parameters to be calculated reliably and thus used for comparative purposes. During testing, the MDD input parameters were obtained from daily temperature extremes and their times of occurrence, using two alternative approaches to synthetic air temperature curve generation, one linear, the other trigonometric. Very good agreement was obtained in both cases and confirms the value of the MDD approach. However, there is no significant benefit to be gained by using air temperature approximating functions more complicated than the linear method for supplementing the missing continuous air temperature measurements. Finally, the MDD approach is not seen as a replacement for the regular SDD method, so much as tool

  15. Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wypych, Agnieszka; Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Ustrnul, Zbigniew; Czekierda, Danuta

    2017-01-01

    An observed increase in air temperature can lead to significant changes in the phenology of plants and, consequently, changes in agricultural production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial differentiation of thermal resources in Poland and their variability during a period of changing thermal conditions in Europe. Since the variability of thermal conditions is of paramount importance for perennial crops, the study focused on apple, plum, and cherry orchard regions in Poland. The analysis was conducted for the period of 1951-2010 using air temperature daily data. Thermal resources have been defined using the growing degree days (GDD) index calculated independently for the whole year and during in frost-free season for three air temperature thresholds: 0, 5, and 10 °C, which determine the non-winter period, growing season, and the period of full plant growth, respectively. In addition, due to the high significance for perennials in particular, the incidence and intensity of frost during flowering were calculated. In this study, a detailed analysis of the spatial differentiation of thermal resources was first performed, followed by an evaluation of long-term variability and associated change patterns. The obtained results confirmed an increase in thermal resources in Poland as a consequence of the lengthening of the growing season. However, the frequency and intensity of spring frost, especially during flowering or even during ripening of plants, remain a threat to harvests in both the eastern and western parts of the country.

  16. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van M.A.; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, J.D.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Berkum, van E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a compleme

  17. Growing degree-days for the `Niagara Rosada' grapevine pruned in different seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarpare, Fábio Vale; Scarpare Filho, João Alexio; Rodrigues, Alessandro; Reichardt, Klaus; Angelocci, Luiz Roberto

    2012-09-01

    Plant growth and development are proportional to biological time, or the thermal time of the species, which can be defined as the integral of the temperature over time between the lower and upper temperature developmental thresholds. The objective of this study was to investigate the efficiency of the growing degree-day (GDD) approach for vines of the `Niagara Rosada' cultivar pruned in winter and summer seasons, and physiological phases (mobilisation and reserve accumulation) in a humid subtropical region. The experiment was carried out on 13-year-old plants in Piracicaba, São Paulo State-Brazil, evaluating 24 production cycles, 12 from the winter pruning, and 12 from the summer pruning. The statistical design was comprised of randomised blocks, using the pruning dates as treatment: 20 July, 4 August, 19 August, and 3 September (winter); 1 February, 15 February, 2 March, and 16 March (summer). Comparison of the mean values of GDD among pruning dates was evaluated by the Tukey test, and comparison between pruning seasons was made by the F test for orthogonal contrasts, both at the 5% probability level. The results showed good agreement between the values of GDD required to complete the cycle from the winter pruning until harvest when compared with other studies performed with the same cultivar grown in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil. However, there was a consistent statistical difference between GDD computed for winter and summer pruning, which allowed us to conclude that this bio-meteorological index is not sufficient to distinguish vines pruned in different seasons and physiological phases applied in humid subtropical climates.

  18. Present and future responses of growing degree days for Crete Island in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-02-01

    Climate affects practically all the physiological processes that determine plant life (IPCC, 2014). A major challenge and objective of the agricultural science is to predict the occurrences of specific physical or biological events. For this reason, flower phenology has been widely used to study the flowering in plant species of economic interest, and in this concept, temperature and heat units have been widely accepted as the most important factors affecting processes leading to flowering. The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). Determination of GDD is useful for achieving a better understanding of the flowering season development in several plant species, and for forecasting when flowering will occur (Paparrizos and Matzarakis, 2017). Temperature and GDD represent two important spatially-dynamic climatic variables, as they both play vital roles in influencing forest development by directly affecting plant functions such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and plant transpiration. Understanding the spatial distribution of GDD is crucial to the practice of sustainable agricultural and forest management, as GDD relates to the integration of growth and provides precise point estimates (Hasan et al., 2007; Matzarakis et al., 2007). The aim of the current study was to estimate and map through downscaling spatial interpolation and multi-linear regression techniques, the future variation of GDD for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, under the A1B and B1 IPCC emission scenarios in relation with the reference periods for Crete Island in Greece. Future temperature data were obtained, validated and analysed from the ENSEMBLES European project. A combination of dynamical and statistical approach was conducted in order to downscale and perform the spatial interpolation of GDD through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that in the future, GDD will be increased and the existing

  19. Combination of remote sensing data products to derive spatial climatologies of "degree days" and downscale meteorological reanalyses: application to the Upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, N. D.; Rutter, N.; Brock, B. W.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2014-12-01

    Lack of observations for the full range of required variables is a critical reason why many cryosphere-dominated hydrological modelling studies adopt a temperature index (degree day) approach to meltwater simulation rather than resolving the full surface energy balance. Thus spatial observations of "degree days" would be extremely useful in constraining model parameterisations. Even for models implementing a full energy balance, "degree day" observations provide a characterisation of the spatial distribution of climate inputs to the cryosphere-hydrological system. This study derives "degree days" for the Upper Indus Basin by merging remote sensing data products: snow cover duration (SCD), from MOD10A1 and land surface temperature (LST), from MOD11A1 and MYD11A1. Pixel-wise "degree days" are calculated, at imagery-dependent spatial resolution, by multiplying SCD by (above-freezing) daily LST. This is coherent with the snowpack-energy-to-runoff conversion used in temperature index algorithms. This allows assessment of the spatial variability of mass inputs (accumulated snowpack) because in nival regime areas - where complete ablation is regularly achieved - mass is the limiting constraint. The GLIMS Randolph Glacier Inventory is used to compare annual totals and seasonal timings of "degree days" over glaciated and nival zones. Terrain-classified statistics (by elevation and aspect) for the MODIS "degree-day" hybrid product are calculated to characterise of spatial precipitation distribution. While MODIS data products provide detailed spatial resolution relative to tributary catchment areas, the limited instrument record length is inadequate for assessing climatic trends and greatly limits use for hydrological model calibration and validation. While multi-decadal MODIS equivalent data products may be developed in the coming years, at present alternative methods are required for "degree day" trend analysis. This study thus investigates the use of the hybrid MODIS

  20. Winter wheat production forecast in United States of America using AVHRR historical data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claverie, M.; Franch, B.; Vermote, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.

    2015-12-01

    Wheat is one of the key cereals crop grown worldwide. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production using combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. Recently, Franch et al. (2015) included Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts between a month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (i.e. 1-2.5 months prior to harvest), while conserving the accuracy of the original model. In this study, we apply these methods to historical data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). We apply both the original and the modified model to United States of America from 1990 to 2014 and inter-compare the AVHRR results to MODIS from 2000 to 2014.

  1. The U2U Corn Growing Degree Day tool: Tracking corn growth across the US Corn Belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Angel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Corn Growing Degree Day (Corn GDD tool is a web-based product that can provide decision support on a variety of issues throughout the entire growing season by integrating current conditions, historical climate data, and projections of Corn GDD through the end of the growing season based on both National Weather Service computer model forecasts and climatology. The Corn GDD tool can help agricultural producers make a variety of important decisions before and during the growing season. This support can include: assessing the risk of early and late frosts and freezes that can cause crop damage; comparing corn hybrid maturity requirements and Corn GDD projections to select seed varieties and plan activities such as spraying; guiding marketing decisions based on historical and projected Corn GDDs when considering forward crop pricing (i.e., futures market. The Corn GDD tool provides decision support for corn producers in the central U.S. corn-producing states. Survey results, web statistics, and user feedback indicate that this tool is being actively used by decision makers.

  2. Fuzzy Association Degree with Delayed Time in Temporal Data Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘惟一; 郭陵芝; 宋宁

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an expression of the semantic proximity. Based on the temporal data model, a method of the temporal approximation is given. Using these concepts, this paper provides an evaluated method of fuzzy and dynamic association degree with delayed time and a superposition method of association degrees. Particularly, by means of the fuzzy and dynamic association degree, the connection between the weather data of two regions can be discovered.

  3. Degree distribution of a new model for evolving networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Xuan Zhang; Qinggui Zhao

    2010-03-01

    We propose and study an evolving network model with both preferential and random attachments of new links, incorporating the addition of new nodes, new links, and the removal of links. We first show that the degree evolution of a node follows a nonhomogeneous Markov chain. Based on the concept of Markov chain, we provide the exact solution of the degree distribution of this model and show that the model can generate scale-free evolving network.

  4. Comparison of surface mass balance of ice sheets simulated by positive-degree-day method and energy balance approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bauer

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Glacial cycles of the late Quaternary are controlled by the asymmetrically varying mass balance of continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Surface mass balance is governed by processes of ablation and accumulation. Here two ablation schemes, the positive-degree-day (PDD method and the surface energy balance (SEB approach, are compared in transient simulations of the last glacial cycle with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. The standard version of the CLIMBER-2 model incorporates the SEB approach and simulates ice volume variations in reasonable agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions during the entire last glacial cycle. Using results from the standard CLIMBER-2 model version, we simulated ablation with the PDD method in offline mode by applying different combinations of three empirical parameters of the PDD scheme. We found that none of the parameter combinations allow us to simulate a surface mass balance of the American and European ice sheets that is similar to that obtained with the standard SEB method. The use of constant values for the empirical PDD parameters led either to too much ablation during the first phase of the last glacial cycle or too little ablation during the final phase. We then substituted the standard SEB scheme in CLIMBER-2 with the PDD scheme and performed a suite of fully interactive (online simulations of the last glacial cycle with different combinations of PDD parameters. The results of these simulations confirmed the results of the offline simulations: no combination of PDD parameters realistically simulates the evolution of the ice sheets during the entire glacial cycle. The use of constant parameter values in the online simulations leads either to a buildup of too much ice volume at the end of glacial cycle or too little ice volume at the beginning. Even when the model correctly simulates global ice volume at the last glacial maximum (21 ka, it is unable to simulate

  5. Changes in the timing, length and heating degree days of the heating season in central heating zone of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangjin; Liu, Binhui

    2016-09-01

    Climate change affects the demand for energy consumption, especially for heating and cooling buildings. Using daily mean temperature (Tmean) data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of the starting date for heating (HS), ending date for heating (HE), length (HL) and heating degree day (HDD) of the heating season in central heating zone of China. Over China’s central heating zone, regional average HS has become later by 0.97 day per decade and HE has become earlier by 1.49 days per decade during 1960–2011, resulting in a decline of HL (‑2.47 days/decade). Regional averaged HDD decreased significantly by 63.22 °C/decade, which implies a decreasing energy demand for heating over the central heating zone of China. Spatially, there are generally larger energy-saving rate in the south, due to low average HDD during the heating season. Over China’s central heating zone, Tmean had a greater effect on HL in warm localities and a greater effect on HDD in cold localities. We project that the sensitivity of HL (HDD) to temperature change will increase (decrease) in a warmer climate. These opposite sensitivities should be considered when we want to predict the effects of climate change on heating energy consumption in China in the future.

  6. Configuring Random Graph Models with Fixed Degree Sequences

    CERN Document Server

    Fosdick, Bailey K; Nishimura, Joel; Ugander, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Random graph null models have found widespread application in diverse research communities analyzing network datasets. The most popular family of random graph null models, called configuration models, are defined as uniform distributions over a space of graphs with a fixed degree sequence. Commonly, properties of an empirical network are compared to properties of an ensemble of graphs from a configuration model in order to quantify whether empirical network properties are meaningful or whether they are instead a common consequence of the particular degree sequence. In this work we study the subtle but important decisions underlying the specification of a configuration model, and investigate the role these choices play in graph sampling procedures and a suite of applications. We place particular emphasis on the importance of specifying the appropriate graph labeling---stub-labeled or vertex-labeled---under which to consider a null model, a choice that closely connects the study of random graphs to the study of...

  7. Gender differences in endocrine responses to posture and 7 days of -6 degrees head-down bed rest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernikos, J.; Dallman, M. F.; Keil, L. C.; O'Hara, D.; Convertino, V. A.

    1993-01-01

    Endocrine regulation of fluids and electrolytes during 7 days of -6 degrees head-down bed rest (HDBR) was compared in male (n = 8) and, for the first time, female (n = 8) volunteers. The subjects' responses to quiet standing for 2 h before and after HDBR were also tested. In both sexes, diuresis and natriuresis were evident during the first 2-3 days of HDBR, resulting in a marked increase in the urinary Na(+)-to-K+ ratio and significant Na+ retention on re-ambulation. After the 1st day of HDBR, plasma renin activity (PRA) was increased relative to aldosterone (Aldo), plasma volume was decreased, and the renal response to Aldo appeared to be appropriate. Circulating levels of arginine vasopressin, cortisol, and ACTH were unchanged during HDBR. Plasma testosterone decreased slightly on day 2 of HDBR in males. The ratio of early morning ACTH to cortisol was lower in females than in males because ACTH was lower in females. Urinary cortisol increased and remained elevated throughout the HDBR in males only. There were no gender differences in the responses to 7 days of HDBR, except those in the pituitary-adrenal system; those differences appeared unrelated to the postural change. The provocative cardiovascular test of quiet standing before and after HDBR revealed both sex differences and effects of HDBR. There were significant sex differences in cardiovascular responses to standing before and after HDBR. Females had greater PRA and Aldo responses to standing before HDBR and larger Aldo responses to standing after HDBR than males.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

  8. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  9. Estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) using accumulated degree-days (ADD) in a temperate region of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myburgh, Jolandie; L'Abbé, Ericka N; Steyn, Maryna; Becker, Piet J

    2013-06-10

    The validity of the method in which total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree-days (ADD) are used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) is examined. TBS and ADD were recorded for 232 days in northern South Africa, which has temperatures between 17 and 28 °C in summer and 6 and 20 °C in winter. Winter temperatures rarely go below 0°C. Thirty pig carcasses, which weighed between 38 and 91 kg, were used. TBS was scored using the modified method of Megyesi et al. [1]. Temperature was acquired from an on site data logger and the weather station bureau; differences between these two sources were not statistically significant. Using loglinear random-effects maximum likelihood regression, an r(2) value for ADD (0.6227) was produced and linear regression formulae to estimate PMI from ADD with a 95% prediction interval were developed. The data of 16 additional pigs that were placed a year later were then used to validate the accuracy of this method. The actual PMI and ADD were compared to the estimated PMI and ADD produced by the developed formulae as well as the estimated PMIs within the 95% prediction interval. A validation of the study produced poor results as only one pig of 16 fell within the 95% interval when using the formulae, showing that ADD has limited use in the prediction of PMI in a South African setting. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Model Checking Degrees of Belief in a System of Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raimondi, Franco; Primero, Giuseppe; Rungta, Neha

    2014-01-01

    Reasoning about degrees of belief has been investigated in the past by a number of authors and has a number of practical applications in real life. In this paper we present a unified framework to model and verify degrees of belief in a system of agents. In particular, we describe an extension of the temporal-epistemic logic CTLK and we introduce a semantics based on interpreted systems for this extension. In this way, degrees of beliefs do not need to be provided externally, but can be derived automatically from the possible executions of the system, thereby providing a computationally grounded formalism. We leverage the semantics to (a) construct a model checking algorithm, (b) investigate its complexity, (c) provide a Java implementation of the model checking algorithm, and (d) evaluate our approach using the standard benchmark of the dining cryptographers. Finally, we provide a detailed case study: using our framework and our implementation, we assess and verify the situational awareness of the pilot of Air France 447 flying in off-nominal conditions.

  11. High-degree Gravity Models from GRAIL Primary Mission Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Frank G.; Goossens, Sander J.; Sabaka, Terence J.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Mazarico, Erwan; Rowlands, David D.; Loomis, Bryant D.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Caprette, Douglas S.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.

    2013-01-01

    We have analyzed Ka?band range rate (KBRR) and Deep Space Network (DSN) data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) primary mission (1 March to 29 May 2012) to derive gravity models of the Moon to degree 420, 540, and 660 in spherical harmonics. For these models, GRGM420A, GRGM540A, and GRGM660PRIM, a Kaula constraint was applied only beyond degree 330. Variance?component estimation (VCE) was used to adjust the a priori weights and obtain a calibrated error covariance. The global root?mean?square error in the gravity anomalies computed from the error covariance to 320×320 is 0.77 mGal, compared to 29.0 mGal with the pre?GRAIL model derived with the SELENE mission data, SGM150J, only to 140×140. The global correlations with the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter?derived topography are larger than 0.985 between l = 120 and 330. The free?air gravity anomalies, especially over the lunar farside, display a dramatic increase in detail compared to the pre?GRAIL models (SGM150J and LP150Q) and, through degree 320, are free of the orbit?track?related artifacts present in the earlier models. For GRAIL, we obtain an a posteriori fit to the S?band DSN data of 0.13 mm/s. The a posteriori fits to the KBRR data range from 0.08 to 1.5 micrometers/s for GRGM420A and from 0.03 to 0.06 micrometers/s for GRGM660PRIM. Using the GRAIL data, we obtain solutions for the degree 2 Love numbers, k20=0.024615+/-0.0000914, k21=0.023915+/-0.0000132, and k22=0.024852+/-0.0000167, and a preliminary solution for the k30 Love number of k30=0.00734+/-0.0015, where the Love number error sigmas are those obtained with VCE.

  12. Development of Animal Model for Studying Deep Second-Degree Thermal Burns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle dos Santos Tavares Pereira

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermal lesions were produced in 12 male Wistar rats, positioning a massive aluminum bar 10 mm in diameter (51 g, preheated to 99°C ± 2°C/10 min. on the back of each animal for 15 sec. After 7, 14, 21, and 28 days, animals were euthanized. The edema intensity was mild, with no bubble and formation of a thick and dry crust from the 3rd day. The percentage of tissue shrinkage at 28 days was 66.67 ± 1.66%. There was no sign of infection, bleeding, or secretion. Within 28 days reepithelialization was incomplete, with fibroblastic proliferation and moderate fibrosis and presence of modeled dense collagen fibers. It is concluded that the model established is applicable in obtaining deep second-degree thermal burns in order to evaluate the healing action of therapeutic agents of topical use.

  13. Bayesian Degree-Corrected Stochastic Block Models for Community Detection

    CERN Document Server

    Peng, Lijun

    2013-01-01

    Community detection in networks has drawn much attention in diverse fields, especially social sciences. Given its significance, there has been a large body of literature among which many are not statistically based. In this paper, we propose a novel stochastic blockmodel based on a logistic regression setup with node correction terms to better address this problem. We follow a Bayesian approach that explicitly captures the community behavior via prior specification. We then adopt a data augmentation strategy with latent Polya-Gamma variables to obtain posterior samples. We conduct inference based on a canonically mapped centroid estimator that formally addresses label non-identifiability. We demonstrate the novel proposed model and estimation on real-world as well as simulated benchmark networks and show that the proposed model and estimator are more flexible, representative, and yield smaller error rates when compared to the MAP estimator from classical degree-corrected stochastic blockmodels.

  14. Acumulación de Grados-Día en un Cultivo de Pepino (Cucumis sativus L. en un Modelo de Producción Aeropónico Growing Degree Days Accumulation in a Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L. Crop Grown in an Aeroponic Production Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dubián Hoyos García

    2012-06-01

    harvest time and production. The Growing Degree Days (GDD or Heat Units (HU are indexes commonly used for growth and harvest time estimation. In cucumber crops (Cucumis sativus L., the number of days from sowing until harvest significantly changes according to genotype and temperature. In this work we studied some variables which may affect the efficiency and crop production under an aeroponic system. We determined that 726 and 660 GGD corresponding to 73 and 64 days were requires for the commercial matherials Dasher II and Poinsset 76 respectively. The effect of two aspersion time periods of 30 and 60 seconds followed by a four minutes interval during the day, were evaluated over leaf area and stem and leaves dry weight, using the hybrid Dasher. No statistical significant differences were found suggesting that the 30 s time period is the best choice since it reduces electric energy costs. The effect of three different nutrient solutions: Hoagland and Arnon, Aeroponicos 100% and Aeroponicos 50%, was tested for leaf area, dry weight, fruit weight and number. We found a significant reduction in the variables leaf area, leaf and stem dry weight, average fruit weight (up to 43.3% and fruit number, using the solution named Aeroponicos at 50% of the commercial concentration. Together our results allowed implementing variables to increase efficiency on a cucumber aeroponic crop system, some of which may improve the economic and environmental performance of cucumber crop using this technology.

  15. Day/Night Cycle: Mental Models of Primary School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiras, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    The study investigated the mental models of primary school children related to the day/night cycle. Semi-structure interviews were conducted with 40 fourth-grade and 40 sixth-grade children. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data indicated that the majority of the children were classified as having geocentric models. The results also…

  16. The CARN/ARNA Inaugural Study Day Inquiry: What Happens to Action Research after the Master's Degree?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shosh, Joseph M.; McAteer, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The Collaborative Action Research Network (CARN) held its first American study day on the east coast of the United States in conjunction with the Action Research Network of the Americas (ARNA) 2014 conference in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, USA. Study day participants visited three American secondary schools, one each in Pennsylvania, New York, and…

  17. Successful production of Nile and blue tilapia fry - findings based on degree days and demonstrated for earthen ponds in subtropical climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-days can be used to adjust for seasonal variation in water temperature when planning tilapia fingerling production strategies and are calculated by subtracting a threshold temperature ("biological zero") from the mean daily water temperature; the threshold temperature is the temperature below...

  18. Effects of different simplified milk recording methods on genetic evaluation with Test-Day animal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cacioppo

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the present study were to compare estimated breeding values (EBV for milk yield using different testing schemes with a test-day animal model and to evaluate the effect of different testing schemes on the ranking of top sheep. Alternative recording schemes that use less information than that currently obtained with a monthly test-day schedule were employed to estimate breeding values. A random regression animal mixed model that used a spline function of days in milk was fitted. EBVs obtained with alternative recording schemes showed different degrees of Spearman correlation with EBVs obtained using the monthly recording scheme. These correlations ranged from 0.77 to 0.92. A reduction in accuracy and intensity of selection could be anticipated if these alternative schemes are used; more research in this area is needed to reduce the costs of test-day recording.

  19. Effect of leg exercise training on vascular volumes during 30 days of 6 degrees head-down bed rest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenleaf, J. E.; Vernikos, J.; Wade, C. E.; Barnes, P. R.

    1992-01-01

    Plasma and red cell volumes, body density, and water balance were measured in 19 men (32-42 yr) confined to bed rest (BR). One group (n = 5) had no exercise training (NOE), another near-maximal variable-intensity isotonic exercise for 60 min/day (ITE; n = 7), and the third near-maximal intermittent isokinetic exercise for 60 min/day (IKE; n = 7). Caloric intake was 2,678-2,840 kcal/day; mean body weight (n = 19) decreased by 0.58 +/- 0.35 (SE) kg during BR due to a negative fluid balance (diuresis) on day 1. Mean energy costs for the NOE, and IKE, and ITE regimens were 83 (3.6 +/- 0.2 ml O2.min-1.kg-1), 214 (8.9 +/- 0.5 ml.min-1.kg-1), and 446 kcal/h (18.8 +/- 1.6 ml.min-1.kg-1), respectively. Body densities within groups and mean urine volumes (1,752-1,846 ml/day) between groups were unchanged during BR. Resting changes in plasma volume (ml/kg) after BR were -1.5 +/- 2.3% (NS) in ITE, -14.7 +/- 2.8% (P less than 0.05) in NOE, and -16.8 +/- 2.9% (P less than 0.05) in IKE, and mean water balances during BR were +295, -106, and +169 ml/24 h, respectively. Changes in red cell volume followed changes in plasma volume. The significant chronic decreases in plasma volume in the IKE and NOE groups and its maintenance in the ITE group could not be accounted for by water balance or by responses of the plasma osmotic, protein, vasopressin, or aldosterone concentrations or plasma renin activity. There was close coupling between resting plasma volume and plasma protein and osmotic content.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

  20. Modelling suction instabilities in soils at varying degrees of saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buscarnera Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wetting paths imparted by the natural environment and/or human activities affect the state of soils in the near-surface, promoting transitions across different regimes of saturation. This paper discusses a set of techniques aimed at quantifying the role of hydrologic processes on the hydro-mechanical stability of soil specimens subjected to saturation events. Emphasis is given to the mechanical conditions leading to coupled flow/deformation instabilities. For this purpose, energy balance arguments for three-phase systems are used to derive second-order work expressions applicable to various regimes of saturation. Controllability analyses are then performed to relate such work input with constitutive singularities that reflect the loss of strength under coupled and/or uncoupled hydro-mechanical forcing. A suction-dependent plastic model is finally used to track the evolution of stability conditions in samples subjected to wetting, thus quantifying the growth of the potential for coupled failure modes upon increasing degree of saturation. These findings are eventually linked with the properties of the field equations that govern pore pressure transients, thus disclosing a conceptual link between the onset of coupled hydro-mechanical failures and the evolution of suction with time. Such results point out that mathematical instabilities caused by a non-linear suction dependent behaviour play an important role in the advanced constitutive and/or numerical tools that are commonly used for the analysis of geomechanical problems in the unsaturated zone, and further stress that the relation between suction transients and soil deformations is a key factor for the interpretation of runaway failures caused by intense saturation events.

  1. DayCent modelling of Swiss cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Büchi, Lucie; Mäder, Paul; Mayer, Jochen; Charles, Raphael; van der Heijden, Marcel; Six, Johan

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing need to identify and evaluate sustainable greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options, their bio-economic feasibility in the agricultural sector, and support implementation of agricultural GHG mitigation activities that are an integral part of climate change strategies. In recent years, several ecosystem biogeochemical process-based models and comprehensive decision making tools integrated with these models have been developed. The DayCent model simulates all major ecosystem processes that affect soil C and N dynamics, including plant production, water flow, heat transport, SOC decomposition, N mineralization and immobilization, nitrification, denitrification, and methane oxidation. However, if the model is to be reliably used for identification of GHG mitigation options and climate change strategies across the EU agricultural regions, it requires site- and region-specific calibration and evaluation. Here, we calibrated and validated the model to Swiss climate and soil conditions and management options using available long-term experimental data. Data on crop productivity, soil organic carbon and N2O emissions were derived from four field sites located in Thervil (1977-2013), Frick (2003-2013), Changins (1971-2013), and Reckenholz (2009-2013) that have evaluated the effects of agricultural input systems (specifically, organic, biodynamic, and conventional with and without manure additions) and soil management options (various tillage practices and cover cropping). The preliminary results show that the DayCent model was able to reproduce 76% of variability in the crop productivity (n = 1 316) and 75% variability in measured soil organic carbon (n = 402) across all long-term trials. Model calibration was evaluated against independent proportions of the data. The uncertainty in model predictions induced by model structure and uncertainty in the measured data still needs to be further evaluated using the Monte Carlo approach. The calibrated model will be

  2. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of the John Day Dam Tailrace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.; Serkowski, John A.

    2010-07-08

    US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District required that a two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged and a three-dimensional (3D) free-surface numerical models to be developed and validated for the John Day tailrace. These models were used to assess potential impact of a select group of structural and operational alternatives to tailrace flows aimed at improving fish survival at John Day Dam. The 2D model was used for the initial assessment of the alternatives in conjunction with a reduced-scale physical model of the John Day Project. A finer resolution 3D model was used to more accurately model the details of flow in the stilling basin and near-project tailrace hydraulics. Three-dimensional model results were used as input to the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory particle tracking software, and particle paths and times to pass a downstream cross section were used to assess the relative differences in travel times resulting from project operations and structural scenarios for multiple total river flows. Streamlines and neutrally-buoyant particles were seeded in all turbine and spill bays with flows. For a Total River of 250 kcfs running with the Fish Passage Plan spill pattern and a spillwall, the mean residence times for all particles were little changed; however the tails of the distribution were truncated for both spillway and powerhouse release points, and, for the powerhouse releases, reduced the residence time for 75% of the particles to pass a downstream cross section from 45.5 minutes to 41.3 minutes. For a total river of 125 kcfs configured with the operations from the Fish Passage Plan for the temporary spillway weirs and for a proposed spillwall, the neutrally-buoyant particle tracking data showed that the river with a spillwall in place had the overall mean residence time increase; however, the residence time for 75% of the powerhouse-released particles to pass a downstream cross section was reduced from 102.4 min to 89 minutes.

  3. Present-day heat flow model of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parro, Laura M.; Jiménez-Díaz, Alberto; Mansilla, Federico; Ruiz, Javier

    2017-04-01

    Until the acquisition of in-situ measurements, the study of the present-day heat flow of Mars must rely on indirect methods, mainly based on the relation between the thermal state of the lithosphere and its mechanical strength, or on theoretical models of internal evolution. Here, we present a first-order global model for the present-day surface heat flow for Mars, based on the radiogenic heat production of the crust and mantle, on scaling of heat flow variations arising from crustal thickness and topography variations, and on the heat flow derived from the effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere beneath the North Polar Region. Our preferred model finds heat flows varying between 14 and 25 mW m-2, with an average value of 19 mW m-2. Similar results (although about ten percent higher) are obtained if we use heat flow based on the lithospheric strength of the South Polar Region. Moreover, expressing our results in terms of the Urey ratio (the ratio between total internal heat production and total heat loss through the surface), we estimate values close to 0.7-0.75, which indicates a moderate contribution of secular cooling to the heat flow of Mars (consistent with the low heat flow values deduced from lithosphere strength), unless heat-producing elements abundances for Mars are subchondritic.

  4. Present-day heat flow model of Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parro, Laura M; Jiménez-Díaz, Alberto; Mansilla, Federico; Ruiz, Javier

    2017-04-03

    Until the acquisition of in-situ measurements, the study of the present-day heat flow of Mars must rely on indirect methods, mainly based on the relation between the thermal state of the lithosphere and its mechanical strength, or on theoretical models of internal evolution. Here, we present a first-order global model for the present-day surface heat flow for Mars, based on the radiogenic heat production of the crust and mantle, on scaling of heat flow variations arising from crustal thickness and topography variations, and on the heat flow derived from the effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere beneath the North Polar Region. Our preferred model finds heat flows varying between 14 and 25 mW m(-2), with an average value of 19 mW m(-2). Similar results (although about ten percent higher) are obtained if we use heat flow based on the lithospheric strength of the South Polar Region. Moreover, expressing our results in terms of the Urey ratio (the ratio between total internal heat production and total heat loss through the surface), we estimate values close to 0.7-0.75, which indicates a moderate contribution of secular cooling to the heat flow of Mars (consistent with the low heat flow values deduced from lithosphere strength), unless heat-producing elements abundances for Mars are subchondritic.

  5. NEW DOCTORAL DEGREE Parameter estimation problem in the Weibull model

    OpenAIRE

    Marković, Darija

    2009-01-01

    In this dissertation we consider the problem of the existence of best parameters in the Weibull model, one of the most widely used statistical models in reliability theory and life data theory. Particular attention is given to a 3-parameter Weibull model. We have listed some of the many applications of this model. We have described some of the classical methods for estimating parameters of the Weibull model, two graphical methods (Weibull probability plot and hazard plot), and two analyt...

  6. The value of the 4-day headdown bedrest model for screening countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernikos, J.; Keil, L.; Ertl, A. C.; Wade, C. E.; Greenleaf, J. E.; Ohara, D.; Ludwig, D.

    1992-01-01

    In order to evaluate the benefits of periodic exposure to the +G(z) vector as a countermeasure to the physiological responses to minus 6 degree head down bedrest (HDT), we considered a two-tiered approach: (a) to use 4 days HDT as a quick and inexpensive means of screening countermeasures, (b) to use a 60 day HDT to validate the most promising candidates. The approach and results of a 4 day study are described here. Methods: Nine males were admitted to our Human Research Facility for one ambulatory control day followed by 4 days HDT and were released on the next day after completion of a peak oxygen consumption test (VO(sub 2 peak)). A battery of tests was selected and standardized to evaluate the known early effects of HDT on plasma volume, early bone markers, orthostatic tolerance, physical performance, and fluid and electrolytes and their hormone regulation. Fluid sodium (Na) and potassium (K) intake and output in the urine were monitored throughout. Plasma volume was determined with a modified Evans Blue method and orthostatic tolerance with a 60 degree head-up tilt test for 30 minutes - both of which were determined on the ambulatory control day and on day 4 of HDT. Immediately after completion of the tilt test subjects were returned to the minus 6 degree position until the next morning when a VO(sub 2 peak) (horizontal ergometer) was done. This was compared to a similar control test determined on 2 separate occasions before subject admission. Results: Four hours after going HDT produced significant decreases (p less than 0.05) in the circulating concentration of fluid and electrolyte regulating hormones. Plasma volume, orthostatic tolerance and VO(sub 2 peak) changed significantly after 4 days HDT. There was also the expected natriuresis on day 1 of HDT but no significant diuresis. The consistency of the pre-bedrest VO(sub 2 peak) tilt tests and plasma volumes was remarkable. Conclusions: The 4 day HDT model seems highly promising for screening a variety of

  7. Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model

    OpenAIRE

    J. Marotzke; Botzet, M.

    2007-01-01

    We show that in a comprehensive climate model both the current climate and a completely ice-covered Earth are stable states under today's total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 level. We employ the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, at relatively high resolution (horizontally T63 in the atmosphere and 1.5 degrees in the ocean). Setting TSI to near-zero causes a transition from realistic present-day climate to a completely ice-c...

  8. Insolation data manual: long-term monthly averages of solar radiation, temperature, degree-days and global anti K/sub T/ for 248 national weather service stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knapp, C L; Stoffel, T L; Whitaker, S D

    1980-10-01

    Monthly averaged data is presented which describes the availability of solar radiation at 248 National Weather Service stations. Monthly and annual average daily insolation and temperature values have been computed from a base of 24 to 25 years of data. Average daily maximum, minimum, and monthly temperatures are provided for most locations in both Celsius and Fahrenheit. Heating and cooling degree-days were computed relative to a base of 18.3/sup 0/C (65/sup 0/F). For each station, global anti K/sub T/ (cloudiness index) were calculated on a monthly and annual basis. (MHR)

  9. A TRANSFERABLE MODEL FOR INNOVATIVE JOINT POSTGRADUATE DEGREE PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maclachlan, Ross; Ion, William; Kochanowska, Rowena;

    2009-01-01

    aim of the programme is to produce graduates with an expanded perspective of innovation management to meet the needs of global industry. In particular this is to be achieved through a curriculum that integrates design based modules with progressive innovation and technology management education...... be overcome. This paper reflects on specific challenges met during development of the GIM programme and presents a programme model addressing these. The model is presented as transferable to other consortia and as basis for a set of tentative principles for joint programme development with particular...

  10. Vouchers for Day Care of Children: Evaluating a Program Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Michael D.

    1989-01-01

    Examined effects of a pilot voucher program on the price, supply, and quality of day care. Findings offered no conclusive evidence concerning expected benefits. Discusses vouchers' potential for easing the day care crisis. (RJC)

  11. An algorithmic calibration approach to identify globally optimal parameters for constraining the DayCent model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rafique, Rashid; Kumar, Sandeep; Luo, Yiqi; Kiely, Gerard; Asrar, Ghassem R.

    2015-02-01

    he accurate calibration of complex biogeochemical models is essential for the robust estimation of soil greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as other environmental conditions and parameters that are used in research and policy decisions. DayCent is a popular biogeochemical model used both nationally and internationally for this purpose. Despite DayCent’s popularity, its complex parameter estimation is often based on experts’ knowledge which is somewhat subjective. In this study we used the inverse modelling parameter estimation software (PEST), to calibrate the DayCent model based on sensitivity and identifi- ability analysis. Using previously published N2 O and crop yield data as a basis of our calibration approach, we found that half of the 140 parameters used in this study were the primary drivers of calibration dif- ferences (i.e. the most sensitive) and the remaining parameters could not be identified given the data set and parameter ranges we used in this study. The post calibration results showed improvement over the pre-calibration parameter set based on, a decrease in residual differences 79% for N2O fluxes and 84% for crop yield, and an increase in coefficient of determination 63% for N2O fluxes and 72% for corn yield. The results of our study suggest that future studies need to better characterize germination tem- perature, number of degree-days and temperature dependency of plant growth; these processes were highly sensitive and could not be adequately constrained by the data used in our study. Furthermore, the sensitivity and identifiability analysis was helpful in providing deeper insight for important processes and associated parameters that can lead to further improvement in calibration of DayCent model.

  12. High degree gravitational sensitivity from Mars orbiters for the GMM-1 gravity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerch, F. J.; Smith, D. E.; Chan, J. C.; Patel, G. B.; Chinn, D. S.

    1994-01-01

    Orbital sensitivity of the gravity field for high degree terms (greater than 30) is analyzed on satellites employed in a Goddard Mars Model GMM-1, complete in spherical harmonics through degree and order 50. The model is obtained from S-band Doppler data on Mariner 9 (M9), Viking Orbiter 1 (VO1), and Viking Orbiter 2 (VO2) spacecraft, which were tracked by the NASA Deep Space Network on seven different highly eccentric orbits. The main sensitivity of the high degree terms is obtained from the VO1 and VO2 low orbits (300 km periapsis altitude), where significant spectral sensitivity is seen for all degrees out through degree 50. The velocity perturbations show a dominant effect at periapsis and significant effects out beyond the semi-latus rectum covering over 180 degrees of the orbital groundtrack for the low altitude orbits. Because of the wideband of periapsis motion covering nearly 180 degrees in w and +39 degrees in latitude coverage, the VO1 300 km periapsis altitude orbit with inclination of 39 degrees gave the dominant sensitivity in the GMM-1 solution for the high degree terms. Although the VO2 low periapsis orbit has a smaller band of periapsis mapping coverage, it strongly complements the VO1 orbit sensitivity for the GMM-1 solution with Doppler tracking coverage over a different inclination of 80 degrees.

  13. Improvement of Markov Chain Model for Occurrence Degree Prediction of Myzus persicae (Sulzer) and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Guangwei; WANG Xiufang; WANG Xinwei; ZHOU Xiansheng; DONG Xiaowei

    2008-01-01

    For long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid Myzus persicae (Sulzer), Markov chain method was used to establish prediction model for occurrence degree of tobacco aphid. With 4 levels of occurrence degree, Markov chain model was established based on the data in 1987-2004. The results indicated that the accuracy for total prediction in 2005-2007 and the back prediction in 1987-2004 reached 88.89% and 85.12%, respectively. The method is simple and feasible for long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid.

  14. Method to determine in rough set model based on connection degree

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Huaxiong; Zhou Xianzhong; Huang Bing

    2009-01-01

    An improvement of tolerance relation is proposed in regard to rough set model based on connection degree by which reflexivity of relation can be assured without loss of information. Then, a method to determine optimal identity degree based on relative positive region is proposed so that the identity degree can be computed in an objective method without any preliminary or additional information about data, which is consistent with the notion of objectivity in rough set theory and data mining theory. Subsequently, an algorithm is proposed, and in two examples, the global optimum identity degree is found out. Finally, in regard to optimum connection degree, the method of rules extraction for connection degree rough set model baaed on generalization function is presented by which the rules extracted from a decision table are enumerated.

  15. A novel configuration model for random graphs with given degree sequence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Xin-Ping; Liu Feng

    2007-01-01

    Recently, random graphs in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices have attracted much attention. This paper presents a specific realization of a class of random network models in which the connection probability between two vertices (i, j) is a specific function of degrees ki and kj. In the framework of the configuration model of random graphs, we find the analytical expressions for the degree correlation and clustering as a function of the variance of the desired degree distribution. The obtained expressions are checked by means of numerical simulations. Possible applications of our model are discussed.

  16. Active controlled muscles in numerical model of human arm for movement in two degrees of freedom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Budziszewski, P.; Nunen, E. van; Mordaka, J.K.; Kȩdzior, K.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the development of numerical model of human upper extremity able to perform movements and stabilization tasks in two degrees of freedom as a result of muscle activation controlled by a PID-based controller. These tasks are defined by functions of specified angle for every degree

  17. On 4-degree-of-freedom biodynamic models of seated occupants: Lumped-parameter modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xian-Xu; Xu, Shi-Xu; Cheng, Wei; Qian, Li-Jun

    2017-08-01

    It is useful to develop an effective biodynamic model of seated human occupants to help understand the human vibration exposure to transportation vehicle vibrations and to help design and improve the anti-vibration devices and/or test dummies. This study proposed and demonstrated a methodology for systematically identifying the best configuration or structure of a 4-degree-of-freedom (4DOF) human vibration model and for its parameter identification. First, an equivalent simplification expression for the models was made. Second, all of the possible 23 structural configurations of the models were identified. Third, each of them was calibrated using the frequency response functions recommended in a biodynamic standard. An improved version of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) based on Pareto optimization principle was used to determine the model parameters. Finally, a model evaluation criterion proposed in this study was used to assess the models and to identify the best one, which was based on both the goodness of curve fits and comprehensive goodness of the fits. The identified top configurations were better than those reported in the literature. This methodology may also be extended and used to develop the models with other DOFs.

  18. Relação entre coeficientes de cultura e graus-dia de desenvolvimento da alface Relationship between lettuce crop coeficient and growing degree days

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elio L. da Silva

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo foi conduzido na Fazenda Campbell da Universidade do Arizona , no período de junho de 1994 a fevereiro de 1995, com objetivo de determinar a equação do coeficiente de cultura (Kc como função de graus-dia de desenvolvimento (GDD usando a série de senos Fourier, para alface (Lactuca sativa, L., do tipo folhosa. Foram usadas dez parcelas casualizadas, irrigadas de maneira a manter o potencial matricial da água no solo acima ou igual a -20kPa, que constituiram as repetições na determinação dos valores de evapotranspiração máxima da cultura (ETm. Cada parcela foi constituida por seis canteiros de 1,0 m x 7,3 m, com duas linhas de plantas (cultivar Waldmann's Green em cada, com população, após desbaste, de 48 plantas por canteiro. A época de desbaste ocorreu com GDD de 228ºC e Kc médio de 0,4 e a colheita com GDD igual a 742ºC e Kc médio de 1,2. Os valores de Kc como função de GDD, em diferentes estádios do ciclo da cultura, permitiram gerar uma equação que pode ser inserida em programa de computador para manejo de irrigação, considerando um GDD final (GDD de ajuste de 900ºC.This research was carried out at the Campbell Farm of The University of Arizona, from June 1994 to February 1995, with the aim of determining a growing-degree-days-based crop coefficient (Kc equation for leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L., using the Fourier sine series model. Ten randomized experimental plots were irrigated, in order to maintain a soil matric potential greater or equal to -20 kPa, as replications for the determination of crop maximum evapotranspiration (ETm. Each plot consisted of six raised beds, 7.3 m long and 1.0 m wide, with two rows of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L., cv. Waldmann's Green thinned to a final population of 48 plants per bed. The thinning time occurred with a GDD of 228ºC and average Kc of 0.4. The harvest time occurred with GDD of 742ºC and average Kc of 1.2. The values of Kc as function of GDD, during the

  19. Analysis of disc brake squeal using a ten-degree-of-freedom model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of disc brake squeal using a ten-degree-of-freedom model. ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology ... It is a significant problem in passenger vehicles that has not been solved satisfactorily until recently.

  20. Ultra-high degree spectral modelling of Earth and planetary topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rexer, Moritz; Hirt, Christian

    2016-04-01

    New methods for ultra-high degree spherical harmonic analyses and syntheses have been developed and studied over the past years. The focus group "High-resolution Gravity Modelling", established in 2013 at TU Munich, has implemented ultra-high degree spectral modelling techniques and used successfully to transform high-resolution topography grids of Earth, Moon and Mars into spherical harmonics. For Earth, a new set of 1 arc-min topography models, developed by our group and released under the name Earth2014, was expanded into a spherical harmonic series to degree 10,800. For the 15 arc-sec resolution SRTM15_plus topography and bathymetry, a spectral resolution of degree 43,200 was achieved. For Moon and Mars, topography grids from laser altimetry were harmonically analysed up to degree ~46,000. The spectral representations of the topography grids presented in this contribution are required in the context of spectral gravity forward modelling with ultra-high degree, where the topographic potential is computed as a function of the spherical harmonic series of the topography and its integer powers. References: Hirt, C., and M. Rexer (2015) Earth2014: 1 arc-min shape, topography, bedrock and ice-sheet models - available as gridded data and degree-10,800 spherical harmonics, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 39, 103-112, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2015.03.001. Rexer, M. and C. Hirt (2015), Ultra-high degree surface spherical harmonic analysis using the Gauss-Legendre and the Driscoll/Healy quadrature theorem and application to planetary topography models of Earth, Moon and Mars. Surveys in Geophysics 36(6), 803-830, doi: 10.1007/s10712-015-9345-z.

  1. Classification and estimation in the Stochastic Block Model based on the empirical degrees

    CERN Document Server

    Channarond, Antoine; Robin, Stéphane

    2011-01-01

    The Stochastic Block Model (Holland et al., 1983) is a mixture model for heterogeneous network data. Unlike the usual statistical framework, new nodes give additional information about the previous ones in this model. Thereby the distribution of the degrees concentrates in points conditionally on the node class. We show under a mild assumption that classification, estimation and model selection can actually be achieved with no more than the empirical degree data. We provide an algorithm able to process very large networks and consistent estimators based on it. In particular, we prove a bound of the probability of misclassification of at least one node, including when the number of classes grows.

  2. Topical Application Effect of the Isolectin Hydrogel (Cramoll 1,4 on Second-Degree Burns: Experimental Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle dos Santos Tavares Pereira

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at evaluating the use of hydrogel isolectin in the treatment of second-degree burns. Twenty male rats were randomly divided into two groups (G1 = treatment with hydrogel containing 100 μg/mL Cramoll 1,4 and G2 = Control, hydrogel. After 7, 14, 21, 28, and 35 days, animals were euthanized. On the 7th day, G1 showed intense exudates, necrosis and edema. On the 14th day, G1 showed tissue reepithelialization and moderate autolysis. On the 21st day, G1 showed intense fibroblastic proliferation, presence of dense collagen, and moderate fibrosis. On the 28th day, G1 showed complete tissue epithelialization. On the 35th day, G1 showed modeled dense collagen. The significant wound contraction was initiated from day, 14 in the G1. There were no significant differences in biochemical and hematological parameters analyzed. These results extend the potential of therapeutic applications for Cramoll 1,4 in the treatment of thermal burns.

  3. On the Nonlinear Structural Analysis of Wind Turbine Blades using Reduced Degree-of-Freedom Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm-Jørgensen, Kristian; Larsen, Jesper Winther; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2008-01-01

    , modelling geometrical and inertial nonlinear couplings in the fundamental flap and edge direction. The purpose of this article is to examine the applicability of such a reduced-degree-of-freedom model in predicting the nonlinear response and stability of a blade by comparison to a full model based...... on a nonlinear co-rotating FE formulation. By use of the reduced-degree-of-freedom model it is shown that under strong resonance excitation of the fundamental flap or edge modes, significant energy is transferred to higher modes due to parametric or nonlinear coupling terms, which influence the response...... representing the case of infinitely many included modes, is shown to predict stable and ordered response for all considered parameters. Further, the analysis shows that the reduced-degree-of-freedom model of relatively low order overestimates the response near resonance peaks, which is a consequence...

  4. Preferential Attachment Model with Degree Bound and its Application to Key Predistribution in WSN

    CERN Document Server

    Ruj, Sushmita

    2016-01-01

    Preferential attachment models have been widely studied in complex networks, because they can explain the formation of many networks like social networks, citation networks, power grids, and biological networks, to name a few. Motivated by the application of key predistribution in wireless sensor networks (WSN), we initiate the study of preferential attachment with degree bound. Our paper has two important contributions to two different areas. The first is a contribution in the study of complex networks. We propose preferential attachment model with degree bound for the first time. In the normal preferential attachment model, the degree distribution follows a power law, with many nodes of low degree and a few nodes of high degree. In our scheme, the nodes can have a maximum degree $d_{\\max}$, where $d_{\\max}$ is an integer chosen according to the application. The second is in the security of wireless sensor networks. We propose a new key predistribution scheme based on the above model. The important features ...

  5. Modeling and estimating change in temporal networks via a dynamic degree corrected stochastic block model

    CERN Document Server

    Wilson, James D; Woodall, William H

    2016-01-01

    In many applications it is of interest to identify anomalous behavior within a dynamic interacting system. Such anomalous interactions are reflected by structural changes in the network representation of the system. We propose and investigate the use of a dynamic version of the degree corrected stochastic block model (DCSBM) as a means to model and monitor dynamic networks that undergo a significant structural change. Our model provides a means to simulate a variety of local and global changes in a time-varying network. Furthermore, one can efficiently detect such changes using the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters that characterize the DCSBM. We assess the utility of the dynamic DCSBM on both simulated and real networks. Using a simple monitoring strategy on the DCSBM, we are able to detect significant changes in the U.S. Senate co-voting network that reflects both times of cohesion and times of polarization among Republican and Democratic members. Our analysis suggests that the dynamic DCSBM pr...

  6. Modeling a Day in the Life of a Diabetic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brod, Ryan; Gomber, John; Mendoza, Jurelle; Roginski, Jonathan; Smith, Tyler

    2010-01-01

    The material presented here was used for a semester-long capstone project for a first semester freshman course entitled Mathematical Modeling and Introduction to Calculus. The goals for the students in this work were twofold: first, enable the students to gain insight into an actual problem that affects millions of people in the United States and…

  7. Modelling critical degrees of saturation of porous building materials subjected to freezing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1996-01-01

    Frost resistance of porous materials can be characterized by the critical degree of saturation, SCR, and the actual degree of saturation, SACT. An experimental determination of SCR is very laborious and therefore only seldom used when testing frost resistance. A theoretical model for prediction...... the pore structure and its effect on strength, modulus of elasticity and volumetric expansion. Also the amount of freezable water and thermal expansion coefficients are involved. For the present, the model assumes non air-entrained homogeneous materials subjected to freeze-thaw without de-icing salts.......The model has been tested on various concretes without air-entrainment and on brick tiles with different porosities. Results agree qualitatively with values of the critical degree of saturation determined by measuring resonance frequencies and length change of sealed specimens during freezing...

  8. Modeling interacting dynamic networks: I. Preferred degree networks and their characteristics

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, Beate; Zia, R K P

    2013-01-01

    We study a simple model of dynamic networks, characterized by a set preferred degree, $\\kappa$. Each node with degree $k$ attempts to maintain its $\\kappa$ and will add (cut) a link with probability $w(k;\\kappa)$ ($1-w(k;\\kappa)$). As a starting point, we consider a homogeneous population, where each node has the same $\\kappa$, and examine several forms of $w(k;\\kappa)$, inspired by Fermi-Dirac functions. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find the degree distribution in steady state. In contrast to the well-known Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'{e}nyi network, our degree distribution is not a Poisson distribution; yet its behavior can be understood by an approximate theory. Next, we introduce a second preferred degree network and couple it to the first by establishing a controllable fraction of inter-group links. For this model, we find both understandable and puzzling features. Generalizing the prediction for the homogeneous population, we are able to explain the total degree distributions well, but not the intra- or inter-gro...

  9. Model-Based Degree Estimation of Unbalance and Misalignment in Flexible Coupling-rotor System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Changyou; XU Minqiang; GUO Song; WANG Yuewu; WANG Rixin

    2009-01-01

    The condition of rotor system must be assessed in order to develop condition-based maintenance for rotating machinery. It is determined by multiple variables such as unbalance degree, misalignment degree, the amount of bending deformation of the shaft, occurrence of shaft crack of rotor system and so on. The estimation of the degrees of unbalance and misalignment in flexible coupling-rotor system is discussed. The model-based approach is employed to solve this problem. The models of the equivalent external loads for unbalance and misalignment are derived and analyzed. Then, the degrees of unbalance and misalignment are estimated by analyzing the components of the equivalent external loads of which the frequencies are equal to the 1 and 2 times running frequency respectively. The equivalent external loads are calculated according to the dynamic equation of the original rotor system and the differences between the dynamical responses in normal case and the vibrations when the degree of unbalance or misalignment or both changes. The denoise method based on bandpass filter is used to decrease the effect of noise on the estimation accuracy. The numerical examples are given to show that the proposed approach can estimate the degrees of unbalance and misalignment of the flexible coupling-rotor system accurately.

  10. Benchmarking binary classification models on data sets with different degrees of imbalance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ligang ZHOU; Kin Keung LAI

    2009-01-01

    In practice, there are many binary classification problems, such as credit risk assessment, medical testing for determining if a patient has a certain disease or not, etc.However, different problems have different characteristics that may lead to different difficulties of the problem. One important characteristic is the degree of imbalance of two classes in data sets. For data sets with different degrees of imbalance, fire the commonly used binary classification methods still feasible? In this study, various binary classifi-cation models, including traditional statistical methods andnewly emerged methods from artificial intelligence, such as linear regression, discriminant analysis, decision tree, neural network, support vector machines, etc., are reviewed, and their performance in terms of the measure of classification accuracy and area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve are tested and compared on fourteen data sets with different imbalance degrees. The results help to select the appropriate methods for problems with different degrees of imbalance.

  11. Random walk in degree space and the time-dependent Watts-Strogatz model

    CERN Document Server

    Grande, H L Casa; Hase, M O

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we propose a scheme that provides an analytical estimate for the time-dependent degree distribution of some networks. This scheme maps the problem into a random walk in degree space, and then we choose the paths that are responsible for the dominant contributions. The method is illustrated on the dynamical versions of the Erd\\"os-R\\'enyi and Watts-Strogatz graphs, which were introduced as static models in the original formulation. We have succeeded in obtaining an analytical form for the dynamics Watts-Strogatz model, which is asymptotically exact for some regimes.

  12. a Version-Similarity Based Trust Degree Computation Model for Crowdsourcing Geographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoguang; Zhao, Yijiang

    2016-06-01

    Quality evaluation and control has become the main concern of VGI. In this paper, trust is used as a proxy of VGI quality, a version-similarity based trust degree computation model for crowdsourcing geographic data is presented. This model is based on the assumption that the quality of VGI objects mainly determined by the professional skill and integrity (called reputation in this paper), and the reputation of the contributor is movable. The contributor's reputation is calculated using the similarity degree among the multi-versions for the same entity state. The trust degree of VGI object is determined by the trust degree of its previous version, the reputation of the last contributor and the modification proportion. In order to verify this presented model, a prototype system for computing the trust degree of VGI objects is developed by programming with Visual C# 2010. The historical data of Berlin of OpenStreetMap (OSM) are employed for experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that the quality of crowdsourcing geographic data is highly positive correlation with its trustworthiness. As the evaluation is based on version-similarity, not based on the direct subjective evaluation among users, the evaluation result is objective. Furthermore, as the movability property of the contributors' reputation is used in this presented method, our method has a higher assessment coverage than the existing methods.

  13. Evaluating the degree of oxygenation of organic aerosol during foggy and hazy days in Hong Kong using high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometry (HR-ToF-AMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. J. Li

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The chemical characteristics of organic aerosol (OA are still poorly constrained. Here we present observation results of the degree of oxygenation of OA based on high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometry (HR-ToF-AMS measurements made at a coastal site in Hong Kong from late April to the end of May in 2011. Two foggy periods and one hazy period were chosen for detailed analysis to compare the changes in the degree of oxygenation of OA due to different processes. The Extended Aerosol Inorganic Model (E-AIM predicted a fine particle liquid water content (LWCfp up to 85 μg m−3 during the foggy days. Particle concentration as measured by HR-ToF-AMS was up to 60 μg m−3 during the hazy days and up to 30 μg m−3 during the foggy days. The degree of oxygenation of OA, as indicated by several parameters including the fraction of m/z 44 in organic mass spectra (f44, the elemental ratio of oxygen to carbon (O : C, and the carbon oxidation state (OSc, was evaluated against the odd oxygen (Ox concentration, LWCfp, ionic strength (IS, and in-situ pH (pHis. Results suggest that the high concentration of OA (on average 11 μg m−3 and the high degree of oxygenation (f44 = 0.15, O : C = 0.51, and OSc = −0.31 during the hazy period were mainly due to gas-phase oxidation. During the foggy periods with low photochemical activities, the degree of oxygenation of OA was almost as high as that on the hazy days and significantly higher than that during non-foggy/non-hazy days. However, the OA evolved quite differently in the two foggy periods. The first foggy period in late April saw a larger LWCfp and a lower Ox concentration and the OA was made up of ~ 20% semi

  14. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y W [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Zhang, L F [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Huang, J P [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

    2007-07-20

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property.

  15. On the mishandling of probabilities in Lamotte & Wells' commentary on J.P. Michaud, G. Moreau, Predicting the visitation of carcasses by carrion-related insects under different rates of degree-day accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, Gaétan; Michaud, J-P

    2017-01-01

    LaMotte and Wells re-analyzed and criticized one of our articles in which we proposed a novel statistical test for predicting postmortem interval from insect succession data. Using simple mathematical examples, we demonstrate that LaMotte and Wells erred because their analyses are based on an erroneous interpretation of the nature of probabilities that disregards more than 300 years of scientific literature on probability combination. We also argue that the methods presented in our article, more specifically the use of degree-day-based logistic regression analysis to model succession, was a positive contribution to the fields of forensic entomology and carrion ecology, which LaMotte and Wells forgot to mention by instead focusing on issues that were either trivial or did not exist.

  16. Modeling of a three degrees of freedom piezo-actuated mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Rui, Xiao Ting

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling and experimentation of a three degrees of freedom (3-DOF) piezo-actuated mechanism. The displacements of the piezoelectric stack actuators are amplified with lever mechanisms to achieve large displacement output. In order to accurately model the mechanism, a comprehensive model, which uses the transfer matrix method to describe the dynamics characteristics and the modified Bouc-Wen hysteresis operator to represent the hysteresis, is presented. Ultimately, the proposed comprehensive model of the mechanism is experimentally investigated for its performance. Experimental results show that the proposed comprehensive model can accurately portray the hysteresis and dynamics characteristics of the 3-DOF piezo-actuated mechanism.

  17. A prognostic model for the thirty-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tjang, Y.S.; Suarthana, E.; Körfer, R.; Tenderich, G.; Grobbee, D.E.; van der Heijden, G.J.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To develop a prognostic model for the thirty-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation. Methods: In this report we developed a prediction model for the 30-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model in 1,262

  18. Low Energy Tests of the Standard Model with Spin Degrees of Freedom

    CERN Document Server

    Erler, J

    2007-01-01

    After briefly reviewing the status of the standard model, I will focus mainly on polarized electron scattering and other tests of the weak neutral current. I will also address other low energy tests in which polarization degrees of freedom play a crucial role, including precision muon physics and searches for electric dipole moments.

  19. A Reduced-Order Model for Structural Wave Control and the Concept of Degree of Controllability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王泉; 王大钧; 苏先樾

    1994-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept and criteria of controllability and degree of controllability for structural wave control, and advances a new approach to structural reduced-order model, which is similar to the constrained substructural method in dynamics, and is also the extension of the method of aggregation raised by Aoki. It has physical meaning and is easy to realize.

  20. Comparison of 7.5-minute and 1-degree digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaacson, Dennis L.; Ripple, William J.

    1995-01-01

    We compared two digital elevation models (DEM's) for the Echo Mountain SE quadrangle in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Comparisons were made between 7.5-minute (1:24,000-scale) and 1-degree (1:250,000-scale) images using the variables of elevation, slope aspect, and slope gradient. Both visual and statistical differences are presented.

  1. Innovation in Doctoral Degrees Designed for Adult Learners: A Hybrid Model in Personal Financial Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grable, John E.

    2011-01-01

    Innovation in doctoral degree program development and delivery provides an effective counterpoint to the expert-apprentice model established in the Middle Ages. The author outlines the importance of innovation in reaching adult learners and describes an innovative hybrid PhD program designed to allow aspiring doctoral adult-age students to pursue…

  2. Innovation in Doctoral Degrees Designed for Adult Learners: A Hybrid Model in Personal Financial Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grable, John E.

    2011-01-01

    Innovation in doctoral degree program development and delivery provides an effective counterpoint to the expert-apprentice model established in the Middle Ages. The author outlines the importance of innovation in reaching adult learners and describes an innovative hybrid PhD program designed to allow aspiring doctoral adult-age students to pursue…

  3. Implementing Outcome Measures Within an Enhanced Palliative Care Day Care Model.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kilonzo, Isae

    2015-04-23

    Specialist palliative care day care (SPDC) units provide an array of services to patients and their families and can increase continuity of care between inpatient and homecare settings. A multidisciplinary teamwork approach is emphasized, and different models of day care exist. Depending on the emphasis of care, the models can be social, medical, therapeutic, or mixed. We describe our experience of introducing an enhanced therapeutic specialist day care model and using both patient- and carer-rated tools to monitor patient outcomes.

  4. Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Botzet, Michael

    2007-08-01

    We show that in a comprehensive climate model both the current climate and a completely ice-covered Earth are stable states under today's total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 level. We employ the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, at relatively high resolution (horizontally T63 in the atmosphere and 1.5 degrees in the ocean). Setting TSI to near-zero causes a transition from realistic present-day climate to a completely ice-covered state within 15 years; this state persists even when TSI re-assumes today's value. A break-up of the complete ice cover occurs with today's TSI and 100 times - but not with 10 times - today's atmospheric CO2 level. While TSI is near-zero, extremely strong meridional overturning ensues in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Our results imply that a snowball Earth is possible, in principle, with inception possibly triggered by a brief dark spell.

  5. Rejection-free Monte Carlo algorithms for models with continuous degrees of freedom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, J D; Novotny, M A; Mitchell, S J

    2003-02-01

    We construct a rejection-free Monte Carlo algorithm for a system with continuous degrees of freedom. We illustrate the algorithm by applying it to the classical three-dimensional Heisenberg model with canonical Metropolis dynamics. We obtain the lifetime of the metastable state following a reversal of the external magnetic field. Our rejection-free algorithm obtains results in agreement with a direct implementation of the Metropolis dynamic and requires orders of magnitude less computational time at low temperatures. The treatment is general and can be extended to other dynamics and other systems with continuous degrees of freedom.

  6. Persuasion Model and Its Evaluation Based on Positive Change Degree of Agent Emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinghua, Wu; Wenguang, Lu; Hailiang, Meng

    For it can meet needs of negotiation among organizations take place in different time and place, and for it can make its course more rationality and result more ideal, persuasion based on agent can improve cooperation among organizations well. Integrated emotion change in agent persuasion can further bring agent advantage of artificial intelligence into play. Emotion of agent persuasion is classified, and the concept of positive change degree is given. Based on this, persuasion model based on positive change degree of agent emotion is constructed, which is explained clearly through an example. Finally, the method of relative evaluation is given, which is also verified through a calculation example.

  7. Modeling, Simulation and Position Control of 3 Degree of Freedom Articulated Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Sadegh Lafmejani

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the modeling, simulation and control of 3 degree of freedom articulated robotic manipulator have been studied. First, we extracted kinematics and dynamics equations of the mentioned manipulator by using the Lagrange method. In order to validate the analytical model of the manipulator we compared the model simulated in the simulation environment of Matlab with the model was simulated with the SimMechanics toolbox. A sample path has been designed for analyzing the tracking subject. The system has been linearized with feedback linearization and then a PID controller was applied to track a reference trajectory. Finally, the control results have been compared with a nonlinear PID controller.

  8. Testing a model for the critical degree of saturation at freezing of porous building materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1996-01-01

    during freezing. The reliability and usefulness of the model are discussed, e.g. in relation to air-entrained materials and in relation to the description of the pore structure.Keywords: Brick tile, concrete, critical degree of saturation, eigenstrain, fracture mechanics, frost resistance, pore structure......Frost resistance of porous materials can be characterized by the critical degree of saturation, SCR. An experimental determination of SCR is very laborious and therefore only seldom used when testing frost resistance. A theoretical model for prediction of SCR based on fracture mechanics and phase...... of elasticity, tensile strength, amount of freezable water, thermal expansion coefficients and parameters characterizing the pore structure and its effect on strength, modulus of elasticity and volumetric expansion. For the present, the model assumes non air-entrained homogeneous materials subjected to freeze...

  9. Cocoa procyanidins with different degrees of polymerization possess distinct activities in models of colonic inflammation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Zachary T; Glisan, Shannon L; Dorenkott, Melanie R; Goodrich, Katheryn M; Ye, Liyun; O'Keefe, Sean F; Lambert, Joshua D; Neilson, Andrew P

    2015-08-01

    Procyanidins are available in the diet from sources such as cocoa and grapes. Procyanidins are unique in that they are comprised of repeating monomeric units and can exist in various degrees of polymerization. The degree of polymerization plays a role in determining the biological activities of procyanidins. However, generalizations cannot be made regarding the correlation between procyanidin structure and bioactivity because the size-activity relationship appears to be system dependent. Our aim was to screen fractions of procyanidins with differing degrees of polymerization in vitro for anti-inflammatory activities in models of colonic inflammation. Monomeric, oligomeric and polymeric cocoa procyanidin fractions were screened using cell models of disrupted membrane integrity and inflammation in human colon cells. High-molecular-weight polymeric procyanidins were the most effective at preserving membrane integrity and reducing secretion of interleukin-8 in response to inflammatory stimuli. Conversely, oligomeric procyanidins appeared to be the least effective. These results suggest that polymeric cocoa procyanidins may be the most effective for preventing loss of gut barrier function and epithelial inflammation, which are critical steps in the pathogenesis of metabolic endotoxemia, inflammatory bowel disease and colon cancer. Therefore, further investigations of the potential health-protective benefits of cocoa procyanidins with distinct degrees of polymerization, particularly high-molecular-weight procyanidins, are warranted.

  10. To connect or not to connect? Modelling the optimal degree of centralisation for wastewater infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggimann, Sven; Truffer, Bernhard; Maurer, Max

    2015-11-01

    The strong reliance of most utility services on centralised network infrastructures is becoming increasingly challenged by new technological advances in decentralised alternatives. However, not enough effort has been made to develop planning tools designed to address the implications of these new opportunities and to determine the optimal degree of centralisation of these infrastructures. We introduce a planning tool for sustainable network infrastructure planning (SNIP), a two-step techno-economic heuristic modelling approach based on shortest path-finding and hierarchical-agglomerative clustering algorithms to determine the optimal degree of centralisation in the field of wastewater management. This SNIP model optimises the distribution of wastewater treatment plants and the sewer network outlay relative to several cost and sewer-design parameters. Moreover, it allows us to construct alternative optimal wastewater system designs taking into account topography, economies of scale as well as the full size range of wastewater treatment plants. We quantify and confirm that the optimal degree of centralisation decreases with increasing terrain complexity and settlement dispersion while showing that the effect of the latter exceeds that of topography. Case study results for a Swiss community indicate that the calculated optimal degree of centralisation is substantially lower than the current level.

  11. Teacher Evaluation System through the 360 Degree Model and the Electronic Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Obando Freire

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Models for teacher evaluation should be in line with advances in science and technology, and constitute the most effective means for professional development of university teachers. This paper aims to analyze the 360 degree model, emphasizing the use of management platforms. A literature review on the subject of study was conducted. The model allows evaluating teachers according to four dimensions: self-assessment, assessment by students, peer assessment and teacher’s electronic portfolios. It is concluded that a systematic and comprehensive evaluation results in teacher’s development, which benefits higher education students.

  12. Evaluation of low degree polynomial kernel support vector machines for modelling Pore-water pressure responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babangida Nuraddeen Muhammad

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pore-water pressure (PWP is influenced by climatic changes, especially rainfall. These changes may affect the stability of, particularly unsaturated slopes. Thus monitoring the changes in PWP resulting from climatic factors has become an important part of effective slope management. However, this monitoring requires field instrumentation program, which is resource and labour expensive. Recently, soft computing modelling has become an alternative. Low degree polynomial kernel support vector machine (SVM was evaluated in modelling the PWP changes. The developed model used pore-water pressure and rainfall data collected from an instrumented slope. Wrapper technique was used to select input features and k-fold cross validation was used to calibrate the model parameters. The developed model showed great promise in modelling the pore-water pressure changes. High correlation, with coefficient of determination of 0.9694 between the predicted and observed changes was obtained. The one degree polynomial SVM model yielded competitive result, and can be used to provide lead time records of PWP which can aid in better slope management.

  13. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for First Lactation Monthly Test-day Milk Yields using Random Regression Test Day Model in Karan Fries Cattle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ajay; Singh, Avtar; Singh, Manvendra; Prakash, Ved; Ambhore, G. S.; Sahoo, S. K.; Dash, Soumya

    2016-01-01

    A single trait linear mixed random regression test-day model was applied for the first time for analyzing the first lactation monthly test-day milk yield records in Karan Fries cattle. The test-day milk yield data was modeled using a random regression model (RRM) considering different order of Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect (4th order) and the permanent environmental effect (5th order). Data pertaining to 1,583 lactation records spread over a period of 30 years were recorded and analyzed in the study. The variance component, heritability and genetic correlations among test-day milk yields were estimated using RRM. RRM heritability estimates of test-day milk yield varied from 0.11 to 0.22 in different test-day records. The estimates of genetic correlations between different test-day milk yields ranged 0.01 (test-day 1 [TD-1] and TD-11) to 0.99 (TD-4 and TD-5). The magnitudes of genetic correlations between test-day milk yields decreased as the interval between test-days increased and adjacent test-day had higher correlations. Additive genetic and permanent environment variances were higher for test-day milk yields at both ends of lactation. The residual variance was observed to be lower than the permanent environment variance for all the test-day milk yields. PMID:26954137

  14. A Support Vector Machine-based Evaluation Model of Customer Satisfaction Degree in Logistics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Hua-li; XIE Jian-ying

    2007-01-01

    This paper pressnts a novel evaluation model of the customer satisfaction degree (CSD) in logistics based on support vector machine (SVM). Firstly, the relation between the suppliers and the customers is analyzed. Secondly, the evaluation index system and fuzzy quantitative methods are provided. Thirdly, the CSD evaluation system including eight indexes and three ranks rinsed on one-against-one mode of SVM is built. Last simulation experiment is presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  15. Box –Jenkins Models For Forecasting The Daily Degrees Of Temperature In Sulaimani City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Muhammad Salh

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Auto-regressive model in the time series is regarded one of the statistical articles which is more used because it gives us a simple method to limit the relation between variables time series. More over it is one of Box –Jenkins models to limit the time series in the forecasting the value of phenomenon in the future so that study aims for the practical analysis studying for the auto-regressive models in the time series, through one of Box –Jenkins models for forecasting the daily degrees of temperature in Sulaimani city for the year (2012- Sept.2013 and then for building a sample in the way of special data in the degrees of temperature and its using in the calculating the future forecasting . the style which is used is the descriptive and analyzing by the help of data that is dealt with statistically and which is collected from the official resources To reach his mentioned aim , the discussion of the following items has been done by the theoretical part which includes the idea of time series and its quality and the autocorrelation and Box –Jenkins and then the practical part which includes the statistical analysis for the data and the discussion of the theoretical part, so they reached to a lot of conclusions as it had come in the practical study for building autoregressive models of time series as the mode was very suitable is the auto-regressive model and model moving average by the degree (1,1,1.

  16. QCD Equation of State From a Chiral Hadronic Model Including Quark Degrees of Freedom

    CERN Document Server

    Rau, Philip; Schramm, Stefan; Stöcker, Horst

    2013-01-01

    This work presents an effective model for strongly interacting matter and the QCD equation of state (EoS). The model includes both hadron and quark degrees of freedom and takes into account the transition of chiral symmetry restoration as well as the deconfinement phase transition. At low temperatures $T$ and baryonic densities $\\rho_B$ a hadron resonance gas is described using a SU(3)-flavor sigma-omega model and a quark phase is introduced in analogy to PNJL models for higher $T$ and $\\rho_B$. In this way, the correct asymptotic degrees of freedom are used in a wide range of $T$ and $\\rho_B$. Here, results of this model concerning the chiral and deconfinement phase transitions and thermodynamic model properties are presented. Large hadron resonance multiplicities in the transition region emphasize the importance of heavy-mass resonance states in this region and their impact on the chiral transition behavior. The resulting phase diagram of QCD matter at small chemical potentials is in line with latest lattic...

  17. Modelling QTL effect on BTA06 using random regression test day models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchocki, T; Szyda, J; Zhang, Q

    2013-02-01

    In statistical models, a quantitative trait locus (QTL) effect has been incorporated either as a fixed or as a random term, but, up to now, it has been mainly considered as a time-independent variable. However, for traits recorded repeatedly, it is very interesting to investigate the variation of QTL over time. The major goal of this study was to estimate the position and effect of QTL for milk, fat, protein yields and for somatic cell score based on test day records, while testing whether the effects are constant or variable throughout lactation. The analysed data consisted of 23 paternal half-sib families (716 daughters of 23 sires) of Chinese Holstein-Friesian cattle genotyped at 14 microsatellites located in the area of the casein loci on BTA6. A sequence of three models was used: (i) a lactation model, (ii) a random regression model with a QTL constant in time and (iii) a random regression model with a QTL variable in time. The results showed that, for each production trait, at least one significant QTL exists. For milk and protein yields, the QTL effect was variable in time, while for fat yield, each of the three models resulted in a significant QTL effect. When a QTL is incorporated into a model as a constant over time, its effect is averaged over lactation stages and may, thereby, be difficult or even impossible to be detected. Our results showed that, in such a situation, only a longitudinal model is able to identify loci significantly influencing trait variation.

  18. Two Degrees of Freedom Non-linear Model to Study the Automobile’s Vibrations

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolae–Doru Stănescu

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present a non-linear model for the study of an automobile's vibrations. The model has two degrees of freedom and it is highly non-linear. The forces in the springs are considered to be given by a polynomial potential. The equations of motion are obtained using the Lagrange second order equations. We determined the equilibrium positions. We proved the conditions for the uniqueness of the equilibrium. In our paper we studied the stability of the equilibrium and the stability of...

  19. Two Degrees of Freedom Non-linear Model to Study the Automobile’s Vibrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae–Doru Stănescu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a non-linear model for the study of an automobile's vibrations. The model has two degrees of freedom and it is highly non-linear. The forces in the springs are considered to be given by a polynomial potential. The equations of motion are obtained using the Lagrange second order equations. We determined the equilibrium positions. We proved the conditions for the uniqueness of the equilibrium. In our paper we studied the stability of the equilibrium and the stability of the motion. Finally a numerical application is presented.

  20. Annual variation characteristics of degree-days and the trend analysis in Tianjin%天津地区冷暖度日数年变化特征及趋势分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭炳刚; 田喆; 刘魁星; 李明才; 郭军; 熊明明

    2012-01-01

    度日数是重要的建筑节能气象参数之一,在一定程度上反映着建筑采暖空调系统能耗水平.城市气候变化直接导致了建筑冷暖度日数的改变.文章利用天津市1951~2010年历史气象资料进行统计分析,发现天津地区冷暖度日数均发生了显著的变化:1995~2004年的平均采暖度日数最小,比1963~1972年平均采暖度日数减少了20.9%;冷度日数却呈逐年上升的趋势,10a平均冷度日数最大值是最小值的2倍多.K-M检验结果表明:α=0.05水平下,采暖度日数从1990年开始显著降低,冷度日数自2005年起显著增加.%Degree-days, to some extent, indicates the building energy consumption of heating and air conditioning systems and it's one of important meteorological parameters used by the building. Climate change led directly to the change of cooling and heating degree-days. Using 60 years of statistical data from 1951 to 2010, it was discovered that a significant change has occurred in both heating and cooling degree-days: the average of heating degree-days from 1995 to 2004 has reduced 20.9% than the average from 1963 to 1972, however, cooling degree-days has a increasing trend, and the maximum value of 10-year-average was more than 1 time than the minimum value and the results of M-K test indicate that when the significant level was 0.05, significant lower heating degree-days have taken place since 1990 and cooling degree-days has a significant increase after 2005.

  1. A multiple degree of freedom modeling approach of piezoelectret foam in a multilayer stack configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tefft, Edward C.; Anton, Steven R.

    2016-04-01

    As electronic devices become both ubiquitous and more energy efficient, powering them with energy harvested from, for example, piezoelectric materials has become a subject of much interest. The field does indeed show promise, as harvesting energy from smart materials has the potential to replace batteries completely in some low-power applications. This paper presents modeling of piezo-electret foam assembled in a multilayer stack configuration, with the required adhesives and conductors, as a multiple degree of freedom (MDOF) system. The benefits of using the foam over some piezo-ceramics include its high flexibility, its light weight, and its lead-free composition. This model predicts the mechanical and electromechanical response to base excitation for any number of layers of piezo-electret foam. Building upon previous work which modeled the piezo-electret stack as a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system, the MDOF model provides information concerning the response of internal stack layers. The MDOF model is validated against the experimentally determined mechanical and electrical responses of a 20-layer piezo-electret foam stack. Also, the internal stack dynamics at higher order vibration modes suggest that charge cancellation is a serious outcome of vibration at these modes that designers need to consider.

  2. Solving large test-day models by iteration on data and preconditioned conjugate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lidauer, M; Strandén, I; Mäntysaari, E A; Pösö, J; Kettunen, A

    1999-12-01

    A preconditioned conjugate gradient method was implemented into an iteration on a program for data estimation of breeding values, and its convergence characteristics were studied. An algorithm was used as a reference in which one fixed effect was solved by Gauss-Seidel method, and other effects were solved by a second-order Jacobi method. Implementation of the preconditioned conjugate gradient required storing four vectors (size equal to number of unknowns in the mixed model equations) in random access memory and reading the data at each round of iteration. The preconditioner comprised diagonal blocks of the coefficient matrix. Comparison of algorithms was based on solutions of mixed model equations obtained by a single-trait animal model and a single-trait, random regression test-day model. Data sets for both models used milk yield records of primiparous Finnish dairy cows. Animal model data comprised 665,629 lactation milk yields and random regression test-day model data of 6,732,765 test-day milk yields. Both models included pedigree information of 1,099,622 animals. The animal model ¿random regression test-day model¿ required 122 ¿305¿ rounds of iteration to converge with the reference algorithm, but only 88 ¿149¿ were required with the preconditioned conjugate gradient. To solve the random regression test-day model with the preconditioned conjugate gradient required 237 megabytes of random access memory and took 14% of the computation time needed by the reference algorithm.

  3. Very high resolution modelling of the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Present day conditions and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottram, Ruth; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Boberg, Fredrik; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Langen, Peter; Rodehacke, Christian; Stendel, Martin; Yang, Shuting

    2014-05-01

    Recent experiments with the Regional Climate Model (RCM) HIRHAM5 have produced new surface mass balance (SMB) estimates at the unprecedented high horizontal resolution of 0.05 degrees (~5.5km). These simulations indicate a present day SMB of 347 ± 98 Gt/year over the whole ice sheet averaged over the period 1989 - 2012 driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. We validate accumulation rates over the ice sheet using estimates from shallow firn cores to confirm the importance of resolution to accurate estimates of accumulation. Comparison with PROMICE and GC-Net automatic weather station observations shows the model represents present day climate and climate variability well when driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Comparison with a simulation at 0.25 degrees (~27km) resolution from the same model shows a significantly different calculated SMB over the whole ice sheet, largely due to changes in precipitation distribution over Greenland. The very high resolution requires a more sophisticated treatment of sub-grid scale processes in the snow pack including meltwater retention and refreezing and an enhanced albedo scheme. Our results indicate retention processes account for a significant proportion of the total surface budget based on a new parameterization scheme in the model. SMB projections, driven by the EC-Earth Global Climate Model (GCM) at the boundaries for the RCP 4.5 scenario indicate a declining surface mass balance over the 21st century with some compensation for warmer summer temperatures and enhanced melt in the form of increased precipitation. A cold bias in the driving GCM for present day conditions suggests that this simulation likely underestimates the change in SMB. However, the downscaled precipitation fields compare well with those in the reanalysis driven simulations. A soon-to-be complete simulation uses driving fields from the GCM running the RCP8.5 scenario.

  4. Technical Review of the CENWP Computational Fluid Dynamics Model of the John Day Dam Forebay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Serkowski, John A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2010-12-01

    The US Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP) has developed a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the John Day forebay on the Columbia River to aid in the development and design of alternatives to improve juvenile salmon passage at the John Day Project. At the request of CENWP, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Hydrology Group has conducted a technical review of CENWP's CFD model run in CFD solver software, STAR-CD. PNNL has extensive experience developing and applying 3D CFD models run in STAR-CD for Columbia River hydroelectric projects. The John Day forebay model developed by CENWP is adequately configured and validated. The model is ready for use simulating forebay hydraulics for structural and operational alternatives. The approach and method are sound, however CENWP has identified some improvements that need to be made for future models and for modifications to this existing model.

  5. A two-stage model for a day-ahead paratransit planning problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, Maria L. A. G.; Klein Haneveld, Willem K.; van der Vlerk, Maarten H.

    We consider a dynamic planning problem for paratransit transportation. The focus is on a decision to take one day ahead: which requests to serve with own vehicles, and which requests to subcontract to taxis? We call this problem the day-ahead paratransit planning problem. The developed model is a

  6. A two-stage model for a day-ahead paratransit planning problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, Maria L. A. G.; Klein Haneveld, Willem K.; van der Vlerk, Maarten H.

    2009-01-01

    We consider a dynamic planning problem for paratransit transportation. The focus is on a decision to take one day ahead: which requests to serve with own vehicles, and which requests to subcontract to taxis? We call this problem the day-ahead paratransit planning problem. The developed model is a no

  7. Modeling the time-periodicity of in-degree distributions in scientific citation networks

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Qi; Xie, Zonglin; Dong, Enming; Li, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    In a range of citation networks, the in-degree distributions boast time-periodicity---the distributions of citations per article published each year present similar scale-free tails. This phenomenon can be regarded as a consequence of the emergence of hot topics and the existence of the "burst" phenomenon. With this inference considered, a geometric model based on our previous study is established, in which the sizes of the influence zones of nodes follow the same power-law distribution and decrease with their ages. The model successfully reproduces the time-periodicity of the in-degree distributions of the empirical data, and accounts for the presence of citation burst as well. Moreover, a reasonable explanation for the emergence of the scale-free tails by regarding the citation behavior between articles as a "yes/no" experiment is presented. The model can also predict the time-periodicity of the local clustering coefficients, which indicates that the model is a good tool in researches on the evolutionary me...

  8. Effects of essential oil from mint (Mentha piperita) on Salmonella enteritidis and Listeria monocytogenes in model food systems at 4 degrees and 10 degrees C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassou, C C; Drosinos, E H; Nychas, G J

    1995-06-01

    The effect of mint (Mentha piperita) essential oil (0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0%, v/w) on Salmonella enteritidis and Listeria monocytogenes in a culture medium and three model foods; tzatziki (pH 4.5), taramosalata (pH 5.0) and pâté (pH 6.8), inoculated at 10(7) cfu g-1, at 4 degrees and 10 degrees C for ca 1 week was studied. In the culture medium supplemented with the essential oil, no growth was observed over 2 d at 30 degrees C determined by a conductance method with a Malthus 2000 growth analyser. Salmonella enteritidis died in tzatziki in all treatments and declined in the other foods except for pâté at 10 degrees C as judged with viable counts. Listeria monocytogenes populations showed a declining trend towards the end of the storage period but was increased in pâté. Mint essential oil antibacterial action depended mainly on its concentration, food pH, composition, storage temperature and the nature of the micro-organism.

  9. Test-day models for South African dairy cattle for participation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Test-day models for South African dairy cattle for participation in international ... Multitrait evaluations were done for the production traits (milk, butterfat and protein) ... Genetic correlations between South Africa and other participating countries, ...

  10. Testing a model for the critical degree of saturation at freezing of porous building materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1996-01-01

    Frost resistance of porous materials can be characterized by the critical degree of saturation, SCR. An experimental determination of SCR is very laborious and therefore only seldom used when testing frost resistance. A theoretical model for prediction of SCR based on fracture mechanics and phase...... geometry of two-phase materials has been developed. The degradation is modelled as being caused by different eigenstrains of the pore phase and the solid phase when freezing, leading to stress concentrations and crack propagation. Calculations are based on porosity, pore size distribution, modulus...... of elasticity, tensile strength, amount of freezable water, thermal expansion coefficients and parameters characterizing the pore structure and its effect on strength, modulus of elasticity and volumetric expansion. For the present, the model assumes non air-entrained homogeneous materials subjected to freeze...

  11. Modelling critical degrees of saturation of porous building materials subjected to freezing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1996-01-01

    the pore structure and its effect on strength, modulus of elasticity and volumetric expansion. Also the amount of freezable water and thermal expansion coefficients are involved. For the present, the model assumes non air-entrained homogeneous materials subjected to freeze-thaw without de-icing salts...... to describe the development of stresses and the pore structure, because a mathematical description of the physical theories explaining the process of freezing of water in porous materials is lacking.Calculations are based on porosity, modulus of elasticity and tensile strength, and parameters characterizing...... involved will be unnecessary, making the model more useful in practice.Keywords: Brick tile, concrete, critical degree of saturation, eigenstrain, fracture mechanics, frost resistance, pore size distribution, pore structure, stress development, theoretical model....

  12. A NEW FRACTIONAL MODEL OF SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM SYSTEM, BY USING GENERALIZED DIFFERENTIAL TRANSFORM METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HASHEM SABERI NAJAFI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalized differential transform method (GDTM is a powerful method to solve the fractional differential equations. In this paper, a new fractional model for systems with single degree of freedom (SDOF is presented, by using the GDTM. The advantage of this method compared with some other numerical methods has been shown. The analysis of new approximations, damping and acceleration of systems are also described. Finally, by reducing damping and analysis of the errors, in one of the fractional cases, we have shown that in addition to having a suitable solution for the displacement close to the exact one, the system enjoys acceleration once crossing the equilibrium point.

  13. Effects of stage of pregnancy on variance components, daily milk yields and 305-day milk yield in Holstein cows, as estimated by using a test-day model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, T; Hagiya, K; Takeda, H; Osawa, T; Yamaguchi, S; Nagamine, Y

    2016-08-01

    Pregnancy and calving are elements indispensable for dairy production, but the daily milk yield of cows decline as pregnancy progresses, especially during the late stages. Therefore, the effect of stage of pregnancy on daily milk yield must be clarified to accurately estimate the breeding values and lifetime productivity of cows. To improve the genetic evaluation model for daily milk yield and determine the effect of the timing of pregnancy on productivity, we used a test-day model to assess the effects of stage of pregnancy on variance component estimates, daily milk yields and 305-day milk yield during the first three lactations of Holstein cows. Data were 10 646 333 test-day records for the first lactation; 8 222 661 records for the second; and 5 513 039 records for the third. The data were analyzed within each lactation by using three single-trait random regression animal models: one model that did not account for the stage of pregnancy effect and two models that did. The effect of stage of pregnancy on test-day milk yield was included in the model by applying a regression on days pregnant or fitting a separate lactation curve for each days open (days from calving to pregnancy) class (eight levels). Stage of pregnancy did not affect the heritability estimates of daily milk yield, although the additive genetic and permanent environmental variances in late lactation were decreased by accounting for the stage of pregnancy effect. The effects of days pregnant on daily milk yield during late lactation were larger in the second and third lactations than in the first lactation. The rates of reduction of the 305-day milk yield of cows that conceived fewer than 90 days after the second or third calving were significantly (Ppregnancy in the first, compared with later, lactations should be included when determining the optimal number of days open to maximize lifetime productivity in dairy cows.

  14. Business model for Indian retail sector: The Café Coffee Day case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashis Mishra

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Given the distinctiveness of the Indian retail sector, and the lack of reliable data on the sector, developing an appropriate business model for the Indian retail sector is a challenge. In this exploratory study of the Café Coffee Day (CCD chain of cafes, we use corporate presentations of the organisation and interview its Chairman, Mr. V.G. Siddhartha, to develop a business model along the parameters of customer value proposition, profit formula, key processes, and key resources to develop a retail model for Coffee Day Company. We generalise the model to the Indian retail sector to improve its sustainability and scalability.

  15. Spherical harmonic modelling to ultra-high degree of Bouguer and isostatic anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmino, G.; Vales, N.; Bonvalot, S.; Briais, A.

    2012-07-01

    The availability of high-resolution global digital elevation data sets has raised a growing interest in the feasibility of obtaining their spherical harmonic representation at matching resolution, and from there in the modelling of induced gravity perturbations. We have therefore estimated spherical Bouguer and Airy isostatic anomalies whose spherical harmonic models are derived from the Earth's topography harmonic expansion. These spherical anomalies differ from the classical planar ones and may be used in the context of new applications. We succeeded in meeting a number of challenges to build spherical harmonic models with no theoretical limitation on the resolution. A specific algorithm was developed to enable the computation of associated Legendre functions to any degree and order. It was successfully tested up to degree 32,400. All analyses and syntheses were performed, in 64 bits arithmetic and with semi-empirical control of the significant terms to prevent from calculus underflows and overflows, according to IEEE limitations, also in preserving the speed of a specific regular grid processing scheme. Finally, the continuation from the reference ellipsoid's surface to the Earth's surface was performed by high-order Taylor expansion with all grids of required partial derivatives being computed in parallel. The main application was the production of a 1' × 1' equiangular global Bouguer anomaly grid which was computed by spherical harmonic analysis of the Earth's topography-bathymetry ETOPO1 data set up to degree and order 10,800, taking into account the precise boundaries and densities of major lakes and inner seas, with their own altitude, polar caps with bedrock information, and land areas below sea level. The harmonic coefficients for each entity were derived by analyzing the corresponding ETOPO1 part, and free surface data when required, at one arc minute resolution. The following approximations were made: the land, ocean and ice cap gravity spherical

  16. MARSpline model for lead seven-day maximum and minimum air temperature prediction in Chennai, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K Ramesh; R Anitha

    2014-06-01

    In this study, a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) based lead seven days minimum and maximum surface air temperature prediction system is modelled for station Chennai, India. To emphasize the effectiveness of the proposed system, comparison is made with the models created using statistical learning technique Support Vector Machine Regression (SVMr). The analysis highlights that prediction accuracy of MARS models for minimum temperature forecast are promising for short-term forecast (lead days 1 to 3) with mean absolute error (MAE) less than 1°C and the prediction efficiency and skill degrades in medium term forecast (lead days 4 to 7) with slightly above 1°C. The MAE of maximum temperature is little higher than minimum temperature forecast varying from 0.87°C for day-one to 1.27°C for lag day-seven with MARS approach. The statistical error analysis emphasizes that MARS models perform well with an average 0.2°C of reduction in MAE over SVMr models for all ahead seven days and provide significant guidance for the prediction of temperature event. The study also suggests that the correlation between the atmospheric parameters used as predictors and the temperature event decreases as the lag increases with both approaches.

  17. ASYMPTOTICS FOR CHANGE-POINT MODELS UNDER VARYING DEGREES OF MIS-SPECIFICATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Rui; Banerjee, Moulinath; Kosorok, Michael R

    2016-02-01

    Change-point models are widely used by statisticians to model drastic changes in the pattern of observed data. Least squares/maximum likelihood based estimation of change-points leads to curious asymptotic phenomena. When the change-point model is correctly specified, such estimates generally converge at a fast rate (n) and are asymptotically described by minimizers of a jump process. Under complete mis-specification by a smooth curve, i.e. when a change-point model is fitted to data described by a smooth curve, the rate of convergence slows down to n(1/3) and the limit distribution changes to that of the minimizer of a continuous Gaussian process. In this paper we provide a bridge between these two extreme scenarios by studying the limit behavior of change-point estimates under varying degrees of model mis-specification by smooth curves, which can be viewed as local alternatives. We find that the limiting regime depends on how quickly the alternatives approach a change-point model. We unravel a family of 'intermediate' limits that can transition, at least qualitatively, to the limits in the two extreme scenarios. The theoretical results are illustrated via a set of carefully designed simulations. We also demonstrate how inference for the change-point parameter can be performed in absence of knowledge of the underlying scenario by resorting to subsampling techniques that involve estimation of the convergence rate.

  18. Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Petrini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567, yearling weight (n=58,124, and scrotal circumference (n=20,371 of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

  19. The Development of a Degree 360 Expansion of the Dynamic Ocean Topography of the POCM_4B Global Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    This paper documents the development of a degree 360 expansion of the dynamic ocean topography (DOT) of the POCM_4B ocean circulation model. The principles and software used that led to the final model are described. A key principle was the development of interpolated DOT values into land areas to avoid discontinuities at or near the land/ocean interface. The power spectrum of the POCM_4B is also presented with comparisons made between orthonormal (ON) and spherical harmonic magnitudes to degree 24. A merged file of ON and SH computed degree variances is proposed for applications where the DOT power spectrum from low to high (360) degrees is needed.

  20. Genetic analysis of days from calving to first insemination and days open in Danish Holsteins using different models and censoring scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Y; Madsen, P; Labouriau, R;

    2009-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to estimate genetic parameters and evaluate models for genetic evaluation of days from calving to first insemination (ICF) and days open (DO). Data including 509,512 first-parity records of Danish Holstein cows were analyzed using 5 alternative sire models...... without any penalty on censored records; 3) a right-censored linear model (CLM); 4) a Weibull proportional hazard model (SMW); and 5) a Cox proportional hazard model (SMC) constructed with piecewise constant baseline hazard function. The variance components for ICF and DO estimated from LM and TLM were...

  1. Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Martin I.; Shadomy, Sean; Bower, William A.; Hupert, Nathaniel

    2017-01-01

    Health officials lack field-implementable tools for forecasting the effects that a large-scale release of Bacillus anthracis spores would have on public health and hospitals. We created a modeling tool (combining inhalational anthrax caseload projections based on initial case reports, effects of variable postexposure prophylaxis campaigns, and healthcare facility surge capacity requirements) to project hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event, and we examined the consequences of intervention choices. With only 3 days of case counts, the model can predict final attack sizes for simulated Sverdlovsk-like events (1979 USSR) with sufficient accuracy for decision making and confirms the value of early postexposure prophylaxis initiation. According to a baseline scenario, hospital treatment volume peaks 15 days after exposure, deaths peak earlier (day 5), and recovery peaks later (day 23). This tool gives public health, hospital, and emergency planners scenario-specific information for developing quantitative response plans for this threat. PMID:27983505

  2. 基于优化生长假设利用极端温度计算日积温的方法%Methods of calculating growing degree-day based on OR assumption and daily extreme temperatures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜会飞; 温德永

    2013-01-01

    Growing degree-day (GDD) is an important indicator for assessing regional heat resources and timing phenol-stage process,and correct GDD calculation is the basis of water and fertilizer management in agricultural production and accurate simulation and prediction of crop growth and development in crop models. In this paper, two daily average temperature methods of calculating GDD based on assumption of optimized response of growth and development to temperature (OR assumption) and daily extreme temperatures was reviewed, and a growing degree-hour (GDH) method of calculating growing degree-days was introduced. Hourly temperature was estimated by diurnal temperature curve simulated by sine wave based on extreme temperatures. Theoretical argument showed that daily average temperature method may result in an over- or under-estimated GDD,and daily extreme temperatures method may result in an over-estimated GDD;Case study showed the GDH method had the smallest error comparing with the true GDD in three methods. To calculate accurately GDD,GDH method is recommended strongly when GDD is calculated by extreme temperatures based on OR assumption.%积温是评估区域热量资源和测算作物生长发育进程的重要指标,准确计算日积温是作物模型中有效模拟和预测作物生长发育进程和科学调控田间水肥管理的基础.本研究以作物生长发育对温度反应的优化假设为前提,对比分析基于日极端温度通过日均温估算日积温的2种方法、温度日变化正弦模拟得到小时温度并以时积温改进日积温模型的方法,与温度日变化曲线和三基点温度围成的真实有效的日积温的差异.首先从理论上论述了日均温法可能导致真正的日积温被高估或低估和日极值法可能高估日积温,然后以实例分析和论证了3种日积温模型与真实有效的日积温间的差异,得出时积温方法计算日积温误差相对最小的结论.为准确估算日积温,建

  3. Methods of calculating growing degree-day based on LR assumption and daily extreme temperatures%基于线性生长假设利用极端温度计算日积温的方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜会飞; 温德永

    2013-01-01

    Growing degree-day (GDD) is an important indicator for assessing regional heat resources and timing phenol-stage process, and correct GDD calculation is the basis of water and fertilizer management in agricultural production and accurate simulation and prediction of crop growth and development in crop models. In this paper,two popular methods of calculating GDD based on assumption of linear response of growth and development to temperature (LR assumption) and daily extreme temperatures were reviewed, and a growing degree-hour (GDH) method of calculating growing degree-days was introduced. Hourly temperature was estimated by diurnal temperature curve simulated by sine wave based on extreme temperatures. Theoretical argument showed that daily average temperature method may result in an over- or under-estimated GDD, and daily extreme temperatures method may result in an over-estimated GDD; Case study showed the GDH method had the smallest error comparing with the true GDD in three methods. To calculate accurately GDD,GDH method is recommended strongly when GDD is calculated by extreme temperatures based on LR assumption.%积温是评估区域热量资源和测算生长发育进程的重要指标,准确计算日积温是作物模型中有效模拟和预测作物生长发育进程和科学调控田间水肥管理的基础.本研究基于生物生长发育速率对温度的线性假设和日极端温度论述了目前流行的2种日积温模型的利弊,并在正弦模拟温度日变化计算小时温度的前提下,引进以时积温改进日积温模型的方法.首先从理论上论述了日均温法可能导致真正的日积温被高估或低估和日极值法可能高估日积温,然后以实例分析和论证了3种日积温模型与真正的日积温间的差异,得出时积温方法计算日积温误差相对最小的结论.为准确估算日积温,建议基于线性假设和日极端温度计算日积温时采用这种时积温方法.

  4. Nitrous oxide emissions from cropland: a procedure for calibrating the DayCent biogeochemical model using inverse modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafique, Rashad; Fienen, Michael N.; Parkin, Timothy B.; Anex, Robert P.

    2013-01-01

    DayCent is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity widely used to simulate greenhouse gases (GHG), soil organic carbon and nutrients in crop, grassland, forest and savannah ecosystems. Although this model has been applied to a wide range of ecosystems, it is still typically parameterized through a traditional “trial and error” approach and has not been calibrated using statistical inverse modelling (i.e. algorithmic parameter estimation). The aim of this study is to establish and demonstrate a procedure for calibration of DayCent to improve estimation of GHG emissions. We coupled DayCent with the parameter estimation (PEST) software for inverse modelling. The PEST software can be used for calibration through regularized inversion as well as model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The DayCent model was analysed and calibrated using N2O flux data collected over 2 years at the Iowa State University Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering Research Farms, Boone, IA. Crop year 2003 data were used for model calibration and 2004 data were used for validation. The optimization of DayCent model parameters using PEST significantly reduced model residuals relative to the default DayCent parameter values. Parameter estimation improved the model performance by reducing the sum of weighted squared residual difference between measured and modelled outputs by up to 67 %. For the calibration period, simulation with the default model parameter values underestimated mean daily N2O flux by 98 %. After parameter estimation, the model underestimated the mean daily fluxes by 35 %. During the validation period, the calibrated model reduced sum of weighted squared residuals by 20 % relative to the default simulation. Sensitivity analysis performed provides important insights into the model structure providing guidance for model improvement.

  5. Dynamic Model and Control of a New Underwater Three-Degree-of-Freedom Tidal Energy Converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José A. Somolinos

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is currently a growing interest in developing devices that can be used to exploit energy from oceans. In the recent past, the search for oil and gas at ever-greater depths has led to the evolution of devices with which these resources are extracted. These devices range from those that simply rest on the seabed to those that are fully floating and anchored to it. This trend can be considered as the basis needed to understand the future evolution of devices for harnessing depth renewable resources. This paper presents a simple dynamic modeling and a nonlinear multivariable control model-based system for a new three-degree-of-freedom underwater generator with which energy from depth marine currents is harnessed when reference trajectory tracking for the emersion maneuvers needed to carry out maintenance tasks is performed. The goodness of both the model and the proposed controller has been demonstrated through the development of various simulations in the MATLAB-Simulink environment. Additionally, the validation of the control algorithms was carried out by using the dynamic model offered by the simulation environment Orcina OrcaFlex (software for the dynamic analysis for offshore marine systems through the MATLAB-OrcaFlex interface.

  6. Modeling and computation of flow in a passage with 360-degree turning and multiple airfoils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shyy, W. (Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Aerospace Engineering); Vu, T.C. (GE Canada, Lanchine, Quebec, (Canada). Hydro Business)

    1993-03-01

    The spiral casing of a hydraulic turbine is a complex flow device which contains a passage of 360-degree turning and multiple elements of airfoils (the so-called distributor). A three-dimensional flow analysis has been made to predict the flow behavior inside the casing and distributor. The physical model employs a two-level approach, comprising of (1) a global model that adequately accounts for the geometry of the spiral casing but smears out the details of the distributor, and represents the multiple airfoils by a porous medium treatment, and (2) a local model that performs detailed analysis of flow in the distributor region. The global analysis supplies the inlet flow condition for the individual cascade of distributor airfoils, while the distributor analysis yields the information needed for modeling the characteristics of the porous medium. Comparisons of pressure and velocity profiles between measurement and prediction have been made to assess the validity of the present approach. Flow characteristics in the spiral casing are also discussed.

  7. A comparative study of two food model systems to test the survival of Campylobacter jejuni at -18 degrees C

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Tina; Rosenquist, Hanne; Brondsted, L.;

    2006-01-01

    , cells were suspended in chicken juice or brain heart infusion broth (BHIB) and added to 4-cm(2) skin pieces, which were subsequently stored at -18 degrees C. In the liquid model, cells were suspended in chicken juice or BHIB and stored at -18 degrees C. The decrease in the number of viable C. jejuni...

  8. Collective dynamics in atomistic models with coupled translational and spin degrees of freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Dilina; Nicholson, Don M.; Eisenbach, Markus; Stocks, G. Malcolm; Landau, David P.

    2017-01-01

    Using an atomistic model that simultaneously treats the dynamics of translational and spin degrees of freedom, we perform combined molecular and spin dynamics simulations to investigate the mutual influence of the phonons and magnons on their respective frequency spectra and lifetimes in ferromagnetic bcc iron. By calculating the Fourier transforms of the space- and time-displaced correlation functions, the characteristic frequencies and the linewidths of the vibrational and magnetic excitation modes were determined. Comparison of the results with that of the stand-alone molecular dynamics and spin dynamics simulations reveals that the dynamic interplay between the phonons and magnons leads to a shift in the respective frequency spectra and a decrease in the lifetimes. Moreover, in the presence of lattice vibrations, additional longitudinal magnetic excitations were observed with the same frequencies as the longitudinal phonons.

  9. Analysis and Development of Walking Algorithm Kinematic Model for 5-Degree of Freedom Bipedal Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Wahyudi Setiono

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A design of walking diagram and the calculation of a bipedal robot have been developed. The bipedal robot was designed and constructed with several kinds of servo bracket for the legs, two feet and a hip. Each of the bipedal robot leg was 5-degrees of freedom, three pitches (hip joint, knee joint and ankle joint and two rolls (hip joint and ankle joint. The walking algorithm of this bipedal robot was based on the triangle formulation of cosine law to get the angle value at each joint. The hip height, height of the swinging leg and the step distance are derived based on linear equation. This paper discussed the kinematic model analysis and the development of the walking diagram of the bipedal robot. Kinematics equations were derived, the joint angles were simulated and coded into Arduino board to be executed to the robot.

  10. ‘Rethinking collections: approaches, business models, experiences’: the UKSG One-Day Conference, November 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The comfortable setting of the Institute of Physics in London played host to a gathering of around 140 librarians, publishers, aggregators and intermediaries for UKSG's annual One-Day Conference in November 2012. Under the title ‘Rethinking collections: approaches, business models, experiences’, the day's presentations aimed to go beyond conventional notions of a library collection to look at how libraries are adapting their collection development policies to meet the changing needs of customers and publishers, and the changing business models available.

  11. A New Tuning Method for Two-Degree-of-Freedom Internal Model Control under Parametric Uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Juwari Purwo sutikno; Badhrulhisham Abdul aziz; Chin Sim yee; Rosbi Mamat

    2013-01-01

    Internal model control (IMC) yields very good performance for set point tracking, but gives sluggish response for disturbance rejection problem. A two-degree-of-freedom IMC (2DOF-IMC) has been developed to overcome the weakness. However, the setting of parameter becomes a complicated matter if there is an uncertainty model. The present study proposes a new tuning method for the controller. The proposed tuning method consists of three steps. Firstly, the worst case of the model uncertainty is determined. Secondly, the parameter of set point con-troller using maximum peak (Mp) criteria is specified, and finally, the parameter of the disturbance rejection con-troller using gain margin (GM) criteria is obtained. The proposed method is denoted as Mp-GM tuning method. The effectiveness of Mp-GM tuning method has evaluated and compared with IMC-controller tuning program (IMCTUNE) as bench mark. The evaluation and comparison have been done through the simulation on a number of first order plus dead time (FOPDT) and higher order processes. The FOPDT process tested includes processes with controllability ratio in the range 0.7 to 2.5. The higher processes include second order with underdamped and third order with nonminimum phase processes. Although the two of higher order processes are considered as difficult processes, the proposed Mp-GM tuning method are able to obtain the good controller parameter even under process uncertainties.

  12. Influence of the model's degree of freedom on human body dynamics identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maita, Daichi; Venture, Gentiane

    2013-01-01

    In fields of sports and rehabilitation, opportunities of using motion analysis of the human body have dramatically increased. To analyze the motion dynamics, a number of subject specific parameters and measurements are required. For example the contact forces measurement and the inertial parameters of each segment of the human body are necessary to compute the joint torques. In this study, in order to perform accurate dynamic analysis we propose to identify the inertial parameters of the human body and to evaluate the influence of the model's number of degrees of freedom (DoF) on the results. We use a method to estimate the inertial parameters without torque sensor, using generalized coordinates of the base link, joint angles and external forces information. We consider a 34DoF model, a 58DoF model, as well as the case when the human is manipulating a tool (here a tennis racket). We compare the obtained in results in terms of contact force estimation.

  13. Modeling Day-to-Day Variability of Glucose-Insulin Regulation Over 12-Week Home Use of Closed-Loop Insulin Delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue Ruan; Wilinska, Malgorzata E; Thabit, Hood; Hovorka, Roman

    2017-06-01

    Parameters of physiological models of glucose-insulin regulation in type 1 diabetes have previously been estimated using data collected over short periods of time and lack the quantification of day-to-day variability. We developed a new hierarchical model to relate subcutaneous insulin delivery and carbohydrate intake to continuous glucose monitoring over 12 weeks while describing day-to-day variability. Sensor glucose data sampled every 10-min, insulin aspart delivery and meal intake were analyzed from eight adults with type 1 diabetes (male/female 5/3, age 39.9 ± 9.5 years, BMI 25.4 ± 4.4kg/m(2), HbA1c 8.4 ± 0.6% ) who underwent a 12-week home study of closed-loop insulin delivery. A compartment model comprised of five linear differential equations; model parameters were estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach within a hierarchical Bayesian model framework. Physiologically, plausible a posteriori distributions of model parameters including insulin sensitivity, time-to-peak insulin action, time-to-peak gut absorption, and carbohydrate bioavailability, and good model fit were observed. Day-to-day variability of model parameters was estimated in the range of 38-79% for insulin sensitivity and 27-48% for time-to-peak of insulin action. In conclusion, a linear Bayesian hierarchical approach is feasible to describe a 12-week glucose-insulin relationship using conventional clinical data. The model may facilitate in silico testing to aid the development of closed-loop insulin delivery systems.

  14. A data-driven model of present-day glacial isostatic adjustment in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Karen; Riva, Riccardo

    2016-04-01

    Geodetic measurements of gravity change and vertical land motion are incorporated into an a priori model of present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) via least-squares inversion. The result is an updated model of present-day GIA wherein the final predicted signal is informed by both observational data with realistic errors, and prior knowledge of GIA inferred from forward models. This method and other similar techniques have been implemented within a limited but growing number of GIA studies (e.g., Hill et al. 2010). The combination method allows calculation of the uncertainties of predicted GIA fields, and thus offers a significant advantage over predictions from purely forward GIA models. Here, we show the results of using the combination approach to predict present-day rates of GIA in North America through the incorporation of both GPS-measured vertical land motion rates and GRACE-measured gravity observations into the prior model. In order to assess the influence of each dataset on the final GIA prediction, the vertical motion and gravimetry datasets are incorporated into the model first independently (i.e., one dataset only), then simultaneously. Because the a priori GIA model and its associated covariance are developed by averaging predictions from a suite of forward models that varies aspects of the Earth rheology and ice sheet history, the final GIA model is not independent of forward model predictions. However, we determine the sensitivity of the final model result to the prior GIA model information by using different representations of the input model covariance. We show that when both datasets are incorporated into the inversion, the final model adequately predicts available observational constraints, minimizes the uncertainty associated with the forward modelled GIA inputs, and includes a realistic estimation of the formal error associated with the GIA process. Along parts of the North American coastline, improved predictions of the long-term (kyr

  15. [Plastic surgery in day hospital conditions: comparison between two hospital models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faga, A; Carminati, M; Falconi, D; Gatti, S; Rottino, A

    2003-12-01

    Personal experience of plastic surgery carried out in Day Hospital conditions is reported. The experience took place within the hospital structure through two different organisational models called here transversal and divisional organisation models: characteristic of the former is that it uses a dedicated interdivisional structure within the hospital involving the centralization of all day-surgery activities, whereas the latter organizes Day Surgery activities within the operating unit whose structures it shares. On the basis of a comparison between the two models we were able to note advantages and disadvantages. We can review our experience in brief by stating that our own preference went to the transversal model which presents the indubitable advantage of being a logistic structure which is hinged on daytime activity and is ready therefore to satisfy on the one hand the needs of this type of patient and, on the other, the needs of the structure itself in efficiency terms. We propose to correct the disadvantages of the transversal model which can be outlined in its lack of homogeneity in the pathology treated and in the subtraction of the criterion of clinical priority in waiting lists through the attainment of a critical dimensional threshold such as to permit programmable sessions with patients with homogeneous pathology (i.e. belonging to the same hospital unit) and through the maintenance of a certain number of Day Hospital beds (around 25%) reserved for new emergency clinical cases.

  16. Nonlinear relative-proportion-based route adjustment process for day-to-day traffic dynamics: modeling, equilibrium and stability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenlong; Ma, Shoufeng; Tian, Junfang; Li, Geng

    2016-11-01

    Travelers' route adjustment behaviors in a congested road traffic network are acknowledged as a dynamic game process between them. Existing Proportional-Switch Adjustment Process (PSAP) models have been extensively investigated to characterize travelers' route choice behaviors; PSAP has concise structure and intuitive behavior rule. Unfortunately most of which have some limitations, i.e., the flow over adjustment problem for the discrete PSAP model, the absolute cost differences route adjustment problem, etc. This paper proposes a relative-Proportion-based Route Adjustment Process (rePRAP) maintains the advantages of PSAP and overcomes these limitations. The rePRAP describes the situation that travelers on higher cost route switch to those with lower cost at the rate that is unilaterally depended on the relative cost differences between higher cost route and its alternatives. It is verified to be consistent with the principle of the rational behavior adjustment process. The equivalence among user equilibrium, stationary path flow pattern and stationary link flow pattern is established, which can be applied to judge whether a given network traffic flow has reached UE or not by detecting the stationary or non-stationary state of link flow pattern. The stability theorem is proved by the Lyapunov function approach. A simple example is tested to demonstrate the effectiveness of the rePRAP model.

  17. Estimation of IT energy budget during the St. Patrick's Day storm 2015: observations, modeling and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Tsurutani, B.

    2015-12-01

    We present estimates for the energy budget of the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm. Empirical models and coupling functions are used as proxies for energy input due to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Fluxes of thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emissions are estimated in several latitude ranges. Solar wind data and the Weimer 2005 model for high-latitude electrodynamics are used to drive GITM modeling for the storm. Model estimations for energy partitioning, Joule heating, NO cooling are compared with observations and empirical proxies. We outline challenges in the estimation of the IT energy budget (Joule heating, Poynting flux, particle precipitation) during geomagnetic storms.

  18. Effects of different simplified milk recording methods on genetic evaluation with test-day animal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Portolano, B.; Maizon, D.O.; Riggio, V.; Tolone, M.; Cacioppo, D.

    2007-01-01

    The aims of the present study were to compare estimated breeding values (EBV) for milk yield using different testing schemes with a test-day animal model and to evaluate the effect of different testing schemes on the ranking of top sheep. Alternative recording schemes that use less information than

  19. Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate

    OpenAIRE

    Hagg, Wilfried; Braun, L. N.; Weber, M.; Becht, M.

    2006-01-01

    A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier ...

  20. A Frequency-Based Assignment Model under Day-to-Day Information Evolution of Oversaturated Conditions on a Feeder Bus Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silin Zhang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day information is increasingly being implemented in transit networks worldwide. Feeder bus service (FBS plays a vital role in a public transit network by providing feeder access to hubs and rails. As a feeder service, a space-time path for frequent passengers is decided by its dynamic strategy procedure, in which a day-to-day information self-learning mechanism is identified and analyzed from our survey data. We formulate a frequency-based assignment model considering day-to-day evolution under oversaturated conditions, which takes into account the residual capacity of bus and the comfort feelings of sitting or standing. The core of our proposed model is to allocate the passengers on each segment belonging to their own paths according to multi-utilities transformed from the time values and parametric demands, such as frequency, bus capacity, seat comfort, and stop layout. The assignment method, albeit general, allows us to formulate an equivalent optimization problem in terms of interaction between the FBS’ operation and frequent passengers’ rational behaviors. Finally, a real application case is generated to test the ability of the modeling framework capturing the theoretical consequents, serving the passengers’ dynamic externalities.

  1. Comparison of impression techniques for a two-implant 15-degree divergent model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, A B

    1992-01-01

    To consistently provide passively fitting implant superstructures, an understanding of the accuracy and precision of all phases of fabrication and connection is required. The initial phase of fabrication, ie, impression making and cast forming, was investigated in an earlier report for a mandibular five-implant model. The current study evaluates the accuracy of working casts produced from impressions using two different transfer copings in a 15-degree divergent two-implant posterior mandibular model. While the indirect method is less cumbersome to use, it was found to be less accurate in the prior study. The purpose of this study was to see if the direct method is more precise for this clinical situation. A transfer was deemed effective in producing experimental casts if distances between specified points on the cast agreed with the corresponding distances on the master cast. The absolute value of the difference in distances between experimental and master casts was compared for the two techniques (two-sample t tests). No significant differences were noted (P > .05), and the power of the tests ranged from 0.70 to 0.96 against the one-sided hypothesis that the direct method had a smaller mean absolute difference in distance than the indirect method. This suggests no clear advantage in using the direct method in similar clinical situations. Comparison of these findings to other impression accuracy studies is made.

  2. Modeling and Optimal Design of 3 Degrees of Freedom Helmholtz Resonator in Hydraulic System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUAN Changbin; JIAO Zongxia

    2012-01-01

    Three degrees of freedom (3-DOF) Helmholtz resonator which consists of three cylindrical necks and cavities connected in series (neck-cavity-ncck-cavity-neck-cavity) is suitable to reduce flow pulsation in hydraulic system.A novel lumped parameter model (LPM) of 3-DOF Helmholtz resonator in hydraulic system is developed which considers the viscous friction loss of hydraulic fluid in the necks.Applying the Newton's second law of motion to the equivalent mechanical model of the resonator,closed-form expression of transmission loss and resonance frequency is presented.Based on the LPM,an optimal design method which employs rotate vector optimization method (RVOM) is proposed.The purpose of the optimal design is to search the resonator's unknown parameters so that its resonance frequencies can coincide with the pump-induced flow pulsation harmonics respectively.The optimal design method is realized to design 3-DOF Helmholtz resonator for a certain type of aviation piston pump hydraulic system.The optimization result shows the feasibility of this method,and the simulation under optimum parameters reveals that the LPM can get the same precision as transfer matrix method (TMM).

  3. SU-E-J-151: Day-To-Day Variations in Fraction-Specific Motion Modeling Using Patient 4DCBCT Images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dhou, S; Cai, W; Hurwitz, M; Williams, C; Cifter, F; Myronakis, M; Lewis, J [Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Ionascu, D [William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The goal of this study is to quantify the interfraction reproducibility of patient-specific motion models derived from 4DCBCT acquired on the day of treatment of lung cancer stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) patients. Methods: Motion models are derived from patient 4DCBCT images acquired daily over 3–5 fractions of treatment by 1) applying deformable image registration between each 4DCBCT image and a reference phase from that day, resulting in a set of displacement vector fields (DVFs), and 2) performing principal component analysis (PCA) on the DVFs to derive a motion model. The motion model from the first day of treatment is compared to motion models from each successive day of treatment to quantify variability in motion models generated from different days. Four SBRT patient datasets have been acquired thus far in this IRB approved study. Results: Fraction-specific motion models for each fraction and patient were derived and PCA eigenvectors and their associated eigenvalues are compared for each fraction. For the first patient dataset, the average root mean square error between the first two eigenvectors associated with the highest two eigenvalues, in four fractions was 0.1, while it was 0.25 between the last three PCA eigenvectors associated with the lowest three eigenvalues. It was found that the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of PCA motion models for each treatment fraction have variations and the first few eigenvectors are shown to be more stable across treatment fractions than others. Conclusion: Analysis of this dataset showed that the first two eigenvectors of the PCA patient-specific motion models derived from 4DCBCT were stable over the course of several treatment fractions. The third, fourth, and fifth eigenvectors had larger variations.

  4. Research on the effect of noise at different times of day: Models, methods and findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, J. M.

    1985-01-01

    Social surveys of residents' responses to noise at different times of day are reviewed. Some of the discrepancies in published reports about the importance of noise at different times of day are reduced when the research findings are classified according to the type of time of day reaction model, the type of time of day weight calculated and the method which is used to estimate the weight. When the estimates of nighttime weights from 12 studies are normalized, it is found that they still disagree, but do not support stronger nighttime weights than those used in existing noise indices. Challenges to common assumptions in nighttime response models are evaluated. Two of these challenges receive enough support to warrant further investigation: the impact of changes in numbers of noise events may be less at night than in the day and nighttime annoyance may be affected by noise levels in other periods. All existing social survey results in which averages of nighttime responses were plotted by nighttime noise levels are reproduced.

  5. Efficacy of essential oil mouthwash with and without alcohol: a 3-Day plaque accumulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchetti Enrico

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to evaluate the antiplaque effect of a new alcohol free essential oil mouthwash with respect to a control of an essential oil with alcohol mouthwash, using an in vivo plaque regrowth model of 3-days. Methods The study was designed as a double-masked, randomized, crossover clinical trial, involving 30 volunteers to compare two different essential oil containing mouthwashes, during a 3-day plaque accumulation model. After receiving a thorough professional prophylaxis at the baseline, over the next 3-days each volunteer refrained from all oral hygiene measures and had two daily rinses with 20 ml of the test mouthwash (alcohol free essential oil or the control mouthwash (essential oil with alcohol. At the end of the each experimental period, plaque was assessed and the panelists filled out a questionnaire. Each subject underwent a 14 days washout period and there was a second allocation. Results The essential oil mouthwash with ethanol shows a better inhibitory effect of plaque regrowth in 3-days than the mouthwash test with only essential oil in the whole mouth (plaque index = 2.18 against 2.46, respectively, p Conclusion The essential oil containing mouthwash without alcohol seems to have a less inhibiting effect on the plaque regrowth than the traditional alcoholic solution. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01411618

  6. Derivation and validation of a 30-day heart failure readmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Lisa M; Gavin, Michael; Piatkowski, Gail; Chang, James D; Mukamal, Kenneth J

    2014-11-01

    In 2006, there were >1 million hospital admissions for heart failure (HF), and the estimated cost to the United States in 2009 was >$37.2 billion. Better models to target aggressive therapy to patients at the highest risk for readmission are clearly needed. We studied 3,413 consecutive admissions for HF based on discharge diagnosis codes from October 2007 to August 2011 from a single academic center. We randomly generated derivation and validation sets in a 3:1 ratio. We used generalized estimating equations to develop our models, accounting for repeated hospitalizations and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to examine model calibration. The 30-day readmission rate was 24.2% in the derivation set. Of 25 candidate variables, the best fitting model included creatinine, troponin, hematocrit, and hyponatremia at discharge; race; zip code of residence; discharge hour; and number of hospitalizations in the previous year. Insignificant variables included intravenous diuretic use on day of discharge, discharge service, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, age, and gender. The risk of 30-day readmission increased with increasing decile of predicted risk in both the validation and derivation cohorts. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.69 in the derivation set and 0.66 in the validation set. In conclusion, we derived and validated a simple model relating discharge-specific characteristics at risk of 30-day readmission. Application of this approach may facilitate targeted intervention to reduce the burden of rehospitalization in patients with HF, but our results suggest that the best readmission models may require incorporation of both clinical and local system factors for optimal prediction.

  7. Reproducibility of scratch assays is affected by the initial degree of confluence: Experiments, modelling and model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Wang; Shah, Esha T; Penington, Catherine J; McCue, Scott W; Chopin, Lisa K; Simpson, Matthew J

    2016-02-01

    Scratch assays are difficult to reproduce. Here we identify a previously overlooked source of variability which could partially explain this difficulty. We analyse a suite of scratch assays in which we vary the initial degree of confluence (initial cell density). Our results indicate that the rate of re-colonisation is very sensitive to the initial density. To quantify the relative roles of cell migration and proliferation, we calibrate the solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model to cell density profiles to provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ. This procedure indicates that the estimates of D and λ are very sensitive to the initial density. This dependence suggests that the Fisher-Kolmogorov model does not accurately represent the details of the collective cell spreading process, since this model assumes that D and λ are constants that ought to be independent of the initial density. Since higher initial cell density leads to enhanced spreading, we also calibrate the solution of the Porous-Fisher model to the data as this model assumes that the cell flux is an increasing function of the cell density. Estimates of D and λ associated with the Porous-Fisher model are less sensitive to the initial density, suggesting that the Porous-Fisher model provides a better description of the experiments.

  8. One-day offset in daily hydrologic modeling: An exploration of the issue in automatic model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    The literature of daily hydrologic modelling illustrates that daily simulation models are incapable of accurately representing hydrograph timing due to relationships between precipitation and watershed hydrologic response. For watersheds with a time of concentration less than 24 hrs and a late day p...

  9. Modelling day-time concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds in a boreal forest canopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. K. Lappalainen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Three different models for day-time atmospheric methanol, acetaldehyde, acetone, isoprene and monoterpene concentrations were developed using measurements above a boreal forest stand in Southern Finland in 2006–2007 and tested against an independent dataset from the same forest measured in summer 2008. The models were based on the exponential relationship between air temperature and the concentration of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC. Our first model for BVOC concentrations was a simple exponential function of air temperature (T-model. The T-model could explain 27–66% of the variation of all the compounds, but it failed to catch the extremely high concentration peaks observed in summer. To improve the temperature model we developed two other models. The second model, a Temperature-State of Development- model (T-S model, included two explaining variables: air temperature and the seasonal photosynthetic efficiency. This model performed slightly better compared to the T-model for both datasets and increased the fraction of variation explained to 29–69%, but it still could not explain the high concentration peaks. To explain those we modified the T-S model to include environmental triggers that could increase the concentrations momentarily. The triggers that improved the model most were high photosynthetically active photon flux density (PPDF compared to the seasonally available radiation and high ozone concentration. The Trigger model described the peak concentrations somewhat better than T or T-S model, thus the level of explanation was improved and was 30–71%. This study shows the importance to include seasonal variations in photosynthetic efficiency when modeling BVOC concentrations and presents the idea of a trigger model for explaining high peak concentrations of BVOCs. Our study suggests that when developing a trigger type modelfurther the model and the triggers should be more compounds-specific.

  10. Coupling dynamic modeling and simulation of three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator based on piezoelectric ceramic of fuzzy PID

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dongjie; Fu, Yu; Yang, Liu

    2017-08-01

    For further research on the microparticles trajectory in the process of micromanipulation, the paper modeled on the coupling dynamic of three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator which is based on piezoelectric ceramic. In the micromanipulation, the transformation of certain movement direction can generate a corresponding change in the coupling in three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator movement, the fuzzy PID method was adopted by the control system of this study, and the modeling analysis was performed on the control system. After completing the above modeling, the simulation model is built by the MATLAB Simulink software. The simulation output results are basically in accordance with the actual trajectory, which achieve the successful research purposes of coupling dynamics model for three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator and application of fuzzy PID method.

  11. Assessment of the Conditions for Introducing the All-Day Model in Basic Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreja Tinta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of the PISA 2000 prompted the German school authorities to extend the network of all-day schools and already the results of the PISA 2012 research showed good students results justify the actions in the direction of designing a quality educational system in Germany. So, we wondered, whether Slovenian basic schools meet the conditions for the introduction of the full-day model. We carried out a non-experimental survey on a sample of headteachers who were asked to assess the spatial and personnel conditions for the implementation of the all-day basic school. In doing so, we paid attention to the differences in terms of the stratum and the number of students. The survey showed that, regardless of the stratum and the number of pupils, most of the schools met the relevant conditions. The schools in which these have not been met yet, could assure them with minimum financial investment.

  12. Identifying influential nodes in dynamic social networks based on degree-corrected stochastic block model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tingting; Dai, Weidi; Jiao, Pengfei; Wang, Wenjun

    2016-05-01

    Many real-world data can be represented as dynamic networks which are the evolutionary networks with timestamps. Analyzing dynamic attributes is important to understanding the structures and functions of these complex networks. Especially, studying the influential nodes is significant to exploring and analyzing networks. In this paper, we propose a method to identify influential nodes in dynamic social networks based on identifying such nodes in the temporal communities which make up the dynamic networks. Firstly, we detect the community structures of all the snapshot networks based on the degree-corrected stochastic block model (DCBM). After getting the community structures, we capture the evolution of every community in the dynamic network by the extended Jaccard’s coefficient which is defined to map communities among all the snapshot networks. Then we obtain the initial influential nodes of the dynamic network and aggregate them based on three widely used centrality metrics. Experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our method can identify influential nodes in dynamic networks accurately, at the same time, we also find some interesting phenomena and conclusions for those that have been validated in complex network or social science.

  13. A MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH TO ONE-DAY CRICKET BATTING ORDERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthews Ovens1

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players

  14. Implications of the 90-day episode definition used for the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellimoottil, Chad; Ryan, Andrew M.; Hou, Hechuan; Dupree, James M.; Hallstrom, Brian; Miller, David C.

    2017-01-01

    Importance Under the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model, hospitals are held accountable for nearly all Medicare payments that occur during the initial hospitalization through 90-days post-discharge (i.e., episode of care). It is unknown whether unrelated expenditures resulting from this “broad” episode definition will impact participating hospital’s average 90-day episode payments. Objective To compare the CJR program’s broad episode definition to a clinically-narrow episode definition Design We identified Medicare claims for patients in Michigan who underwent joint replacement from 2011 through 2013. Using specifications from the CJR model and the clinically-narrow Hospital Compare payment measure, we constructed episodes of care and calculated 90-day episode payments. We then compared hospitals’ average 90-day episode payments using the two episode definitions and fit linear regression models to understand whether payment differences were associated with specific hospital characteristics (average CMS-HCC risk score, rural hospital status, joint replacement volume, percentage of Medicaid discharges, teaching hospital status, number of beds, percentage of joint replacements performed on African American patients and median income of the hospital’s county). Setting All Michigan hospitals located in metropolitan statistical areas Participants Medicare beneficiaries Main Outcome and Measure(s) The correlation and difference between average 90-day episode payments using the broad CJR model episode definition and the clinically-narrow Hospital Compare episode definition. Results We identified 23,251 joint replacement episodes. 90-day episode payments using the broad CJR episode definition ranged from $17,349 to $29,465 (mean: $22,122, standard deviation: $2,600). Episode payments were slightly lower (mean: $21,670) when the Hospital Compare episode definition was used. Both methods were strongly correlated (r=0.99, p<0.001). The average

  15. Six-Degree-of-Freedom Sensor Fish Design: Governing Equations and Motion Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Richmond, Marshall C.; Simmons, Carver S.; Carlson, Thomas J.

    2004-08-19

    The Sensor Fish device is being used at Northwest hydropower projects to better understand the conditions fish experience during passage through hydroturbines and other dam bypass alternatives. Since its initial development in 1997, the Sensor Fish has undergone numerous design changes to improve its function and extend the range of its use. The most recent Sensor Fish design, the three degree of freedom (3DOF) device, has been used successfully to characterize the environment fish experience when passing through turbines, in spill, or in engineered fish bypass facilities at dams. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is in the process of redesigning the current 3DOF Sensor Fish device package to improve its field performance. Rate gyros will be added to the new six degree of freedom (6DOF) device so that it will be possible to observe the six linear and angular accelerations of the Sensor Fish as it passes the dam. Before the 6DOF Sensor Fish device can be developed and deployed, governing equations of motion must be developed in order to understand the design implications of instrument selection and placement within the body of the device. In this report, we describe a fairly general formulation for the coordinate systems, equations of motion, force and moment relationships necessary to simulate the 6DOF movement of an underwater body. Some simplifications are made by considering the Sensor Fish device to be a rigid, axisymmetric body. The equations of motion are written in the body-fixed frame of reference. Transformations between the body-fixed and interial reference frames are performed using a formulation based on quaternions. Force and moment relationships specific to the Sensor Fish body are currently not available. However, examples of the trajectory simulations using the 6DOF equations are presented using existing low and high-Reynolds number force and moment correlations. Animation files for the test cases are provided in an attached CD. The next

  16. Study on the Degree of Rural Empty Nesters’ Satisfaction with Life Quality Based on Ordered Logit-ISM Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huanan; ZHANG; Jin; FANG; Hongxia; BI

    2015-01-01

    It is an ultimate objective to solve the rural supporting problems to improve life satisfaction of empty nesters in rural areas. Based on data of 546 empty nesters in rural areas,the factors influencing life quality satisfaction of empty nesters in rural areas are firstly analyzed using ordered logit model,and then the relationship between various influencing factors is analyzed using ISM. Study shows that health condition,degree of participation in cultural and sports activities,spouse status,family harmony degree,annual family income,degree of worry about life,degree of government and social care and pension mode,have a significant impact on the life quality satisfaction of empty nesters in rural areas.The degree of worry about life,degree of government and social care are surface direct factors; degree of participation in cultural and sports activities,family harmony degree,pension mode are intermediate indirect factors; health condition,spouse status and annual family income are deep root factors.

  17. Modelling a Nurse Shift Schedule with Multiple Preference Ranks for Shifts and Days-Off

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Cheng Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available When it comes to nurse shift schedules, it is found that the nursing staff have diverse preferences about shift rotations and days-off. The previous studies only focused on the most preferred work shift and the number of satisfactory days-off of the schedule at the current schedule period but had few discussions on the previous schedule periods and other preference levels for shifts and days-off, which may affect fairness of shift schedules. As a result, this paper proposes a nurse scheduling model based upon integer programming that takes into account constraints of the schedule, different preference ranks towards each shift, and the historical data of previous schedule periods to maximize the satisfaction of all the nursing staff's preferences about the shift schedule. The main contribution of the proposed model is that we consider that the nursing staff’s satisfaction level is affected by multiple preference ranks and their priority ordering to be scheduled, so that the quality of the generated shift schedule is more reasonable. Numerical results show that the planned shifts and days-off are fair and successfully meet the preferences of all the nursing staff.

  18. Learning Survival Models with On-Line Simulation Activities in the Actuarial Science Degree

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antonio Fernandez-Morales

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe an on-line survival laboratory designed to enhance teaching and learning in the Statistics courses of the Actuarial Science Degree of the Uni-versity of Málaga...

  19. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Geochemical modelling of present-day groundwaters. Final Report - Volume 12

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, D. A. [The John Hopkins Univ, Dept of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore (United States)

    1992-12-31

    The main purpose of this report is to summarize geochemical modeling studies of the present-day Koongarra groundwaters. Information on the present-day geochemistry and geochemical processes at Koongarra forms a basis for a present-day analogue for nuclear waste migration. The present-day analogue is built on studies of the mineralogy and petrology of the Koongarra deposit, and chemical analyses of present-day groundwaters from the deposit. The overall approach taken in the present study has been to carry out a series of aqueous speciation and state of saturation calculations, including chemical mass transfer calculations, to address the possible control over the chemistry of the present-day for the groundwaters at Koongarra. The most important implication of the present study for the migration of radionuclides is the strong role played by the water-rock interactions, both above and below the water table, influencing the overall chemical evolution of the groundwaters. Thus, the results show that the chemical evolution of waters is strongly controlled by the initial availability of CO{sub 2} and the mineral assemblage encountered, which together determine the major element evolution of the waters by controlling the pH. The relative rates of evolution of the pH and the oxidation state of the groundwaters are also critical to the mobility of uranium. The shallow Koongarra waters are sufficiently oxidising that they can dissolve and transport uranium even under acidic conditions. Under the more reducing condition of the deep groundwaters, is the pH level that permits uranium transport as carbonate complexes. However, if the oxidation state decreases to much lower levels, it would be expected that uranium become immobile. All the speciation and state of saturation calculations carried out in the present study are available from the author, on request 22 refs., 7 tabs., 18 figs.

  20. A predictive model that describes the effect of prolonged heating at 70 to 90 degrees C and subsequent incubation at refrigeration temperatures on growth from spores and toxigenesis by nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum in the presence of lysozyme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, P S; Peck, M W

    1999-08-01

    Refrigerated processed foods of extended durability such as cook-chill and sous-vide foods rely on a minimal heat treatment at 70 to 95 degrees C and then storage at a refrigeration temperature for safety and preservation. These foods are not sterile and are intended to have an extended shelf life, often up to 42 days. The principal microbiological hazard in foods of this type is growth of and toxin production by nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum. Lysozyme has been shown to increase the measured heat resistance of nonproteolytic C. botulinum spores. However, the heat treatment guidelines for prevention of risk of botulism in these products have not taken into consideration the effect of lysozyme, which can be present in many foods. In order to assess the botulism hazard, the effect of heat treatments at 70, 75, 80, 85, and 90 degrees C combined with refrigerated storage for up to 90 days on growth from 10(6) spores of nonproteolytic C. botulinum (types B, E, and F) in an anaerobic meat medium containing 2,400 U of lysozyme per ml (50 microg per ml) was studied. Provided that the storage temperature was no higher than 8 degrees C, the following heat treatments each prevented growth and toxin production during 90 days; 70 degrees C for >/=2,545 min, 75 degrees C for >/=463 min, 80 degrees C for >/=230 min, 85 degrees C for >/=84 min, and 90 degrees C for >/=33.5 min. A factorial experimental design allowed development of a predictive model that described the incubation time required before the first sample showed growth, as a function of heating temperature (70 to 90 degrees C), period of heat treatment (up to 2,545 min), and incubation temperature (5 to 25 degrees C). Predictions from the model provided a valid description of the data used to generate the model and agreed with observations made previously.

  1. Modeling and experiment of bistable two-degree-of-freedom energy harvester with magnetic coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongyan; Tang, Lihua

    2017-03-01

    The operating bandwidth of energy harvesters is one main concern in vibration energy harvesting due to the random and time-varying nature of most vibration sources. Recent research efforts have been made to address this issue including exploiting multimodal structures and nonlinear dynamics. These ideas have yielded some exciting results to leverage the broadband performance. Hybrid configurations combining these ideas are expected to provide an even better operating bandwidth and yet to be studied. In this paper, a bistable two-degree-of-freedom (2-DOF) piezoelectric energy harvester (PEH) with magnetic coupling is proposed, in which a linear parasitic oscillator attached to the main energy harvesting beam is used to generate two resonant peaks and the magnetic coupling is used to generate nonlinear dynamics, thus to achieve broadband electrical outputs. A nonlinear electromechanical model of the proposed harvester is established and the parametric study is conducted for various parasitic oscillator configurations. Experiment is subsequently performed to validate the theoretical analysis. The results indicate that nonlinear responses can appear at any of the two peaks or at both. One strong nonlinear peak in addition to a quasi-linear peak can be achieved by adequate adjustment of the parasitic oscillator. This is advantageous over the optimal linear 2-DOF PEH in terms of wider bandwidth thanks to the involved nonlinear dynamics. In addition, the load resistance has significant influence around the peak with strong nonlinear responses, resulting in evident peak shift. The best power output is accompanied with a shrunk bandwidth due to the peak shift.

  2. Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy; van Kampenhout, Leo; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2016-09-01

    We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of {˜ }1° in the past, present and future (1850-2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 {Gt year^{-1}}, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 {Gt year^{-1}} per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet's edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.

  3. Evaluation of the DayCent model to predict carbon fluxes in French crop sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Kenji; Martin, Manuel P.; Zhang, Yao; Bernoux, Martial; Chapuis-Lardy, Lydie

    2017-04-01

    Croplands in temperate regions are an important component of the carbon balance and can act as a sink or a source of carbon, depending on pedoclimatic conditions and management practices. Therefore the evaluation of carbon fluxes in croplands by modelling approach is relevant in the context of global change. This study was part of the Comete-Global project funded by the multi-Partner call FACCE JPI. Carbon fluxes, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), leaf area index (LAI), biomass, and grain production were simulated at the site level in three French crop experiments from the CarboEurope project. Several crops were studied, like winter wheat, rapeseed, barley, maize, and sunflower. Daily NEE was measured with eddy covariance and could be partitioned between gross primary production (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER). Measurements were compared to DayCent simulations, a process-based model predicting plant production and soil organic matter turnover at daily time step. We compared two versions of the model: the original one with a simplified plant module and a newer version that simulates LAI. Input data for modelling were soil properties, climate, and management practices. Simulations of grain yields and biomass production were acceptable when using optimized crop parameters. Simulation of NEE was also acceptable. GPP predictions were improved with the newer version of the model, eliminating temporal shifts that could be observed with the original model. TER was underestimated by the model. Predicted NEE was more sensitive to soil tillage and nitrogen applications than measured NEE. DayCent was therefore a relevant tool to predict carbon fluxes in French crops at the site level. The introduction of LAI in the model improved its performance.

  4. Genetic analysis of somatic cell score in Norwegian cattle using random regression test-day models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odegård, J; Jensen, J; Klemetsdal, G; Madsen, P; Heringstad, B

    2003-12-01

    The dataset used in this analysis contained a total of 341,736 test-day observations of somatic cell scores from 77,110 primiparous daughters of 1965 Norwegian Cattle sires. Initial analyses, using simple random regression models without genetic effects, indicated that use of homogeneous residual variance was appropriate. Further analyses were carried out by use of a repeatability model and 12 random regression sire models. Legendre polynomials of varying order were used to model both permanent environmental and sire effects, as did the Wilmink function, the Lidauer-Mäntysaari function, and the Ali-Schaeffer function. For all these models, heritability estimates were lowest at the beginning (0.05 to 0.07) and higher at the end (0.09 to 0.12) of lactation. Genetic correlations between somatic cell scores early and late in lactation were moderate to high (0.38 to 0.71), whereas genetic correlations for adjacent DIM were near unity. Models were compared based on likelihood ratio tests, Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, residual variance, and predictive ability. Based on prediction of randomly excluded observations, models with 4 coefficients for permanent environmental effect were preferred over simpler models. More highly parameterized models did not substantially increase predictive ability. Evaluation of the different model selection criteria indicated that a reduced order of fit for sire effects was desireable. Models with zeroth- or first-order of fit for sire effects and higher order of fit for permanent environmental effects probably underestimated sire variance. The chosen model had Legendre polynomials with 3 coefficients for sire, and 4 coefficients for permanent environmental effects. For this model, trajectories of sire variance and heritability were similar assuming either homogeneous or heterogeneous residual variance structure.

  5. Overcoming the spin-multiplicity limit of entropy by means of lattice degrees of freedom: A minimal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, T.; Michalski, S.; Skomski, R.; Sellmyer, D. J.; Binek, Ch.

    2011-06-01

    The discovery of the giant magnetocaloric effect with isothermal field-induced entropy change beyond the spin-multiplicity limit gave rise to some indistinctness in the literature regarding the applicability of fundamental thermodynamics in data analysis. Those misleading interpretations concerning, for instance, the rigorousness of phenomenological thermodynamics are clarified here. Specifically, it is shown that the Maxwell relation incorporates contributions from the spin degrees of freedom and potential lattice degrees of freedom into the isothermal entropy change. A minimalist model involving pairs of exchange-coupled, mobile Ising spins is investigated. It is explicitly shown that lattice degrees of freedom can be activated via applied magnetic fields and the integrated Maxwell relation contains this lattice contribution. A simple and intuitive analytic expression for the isothermal entropy change in the presence of field-activated lattice degrees of freedom is provided.

  6. Effects of vegetation feedback in modeling the present-day climate over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Yu, M.

    2016-12-01

    Abstract: Proper representation of climate-vegetation interactions is important for realistic simulations of the present climate and reliable projections of the future, and dynamic vegetation is being incorporated into more and more climate models. However, coupled vegetation-climate modeling at the regional scale is still at a very early stage. Specifically, very few studies on climate over Asia have accounted for the role of dynamic vegetation feedback. In this study, the regional climate model RegCM version 4.3.4 (RCM) coupled with the Community Land Model version 4/4.5 (CLM) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV) is used to simulate the present day climate over China, and the role of vegetation feedback at different time scales is investigated based on a set of simulations with different treatments of vegetation. Three simulations are conducted, each using RCM-CLM, RCM-CLM-CN, and RCM-CLM-CN-DV respectively, and all simulations are driven with reanalysis data during the period of 1989 to 2009. This presentation will document the model performance in simulating vegetation and climate, and examine the role of vegetation dynamics in climate variability at different time scales. Preliminary results indicate that, when the carbon-nitrogen dynamics and dynamic vegetation feedback are included, the spatial pattern of biases remains similar, but the magnitude of the biases become larger. Model performance in simulating other aspects of the present-day climate will be examined, and the implication of this effect will be studied.

  7. Plasma iron levels appraised 15 days after spinal cord injury in a limb movement animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, F M; Esteves, A M; Tufik, S; de Mello, M T

    2011-03-01

    Experimental, controlled trial. The purpose of this study was to evaluate plasma iron and transferrin levels in a limb movement animal model with spinal cord injury (SCI). Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Departamento de Psicobiologia. In all, 72 male Wistar rats aged 90 days were divided into four groups: (1) acute SCI (1 day, SCI1), (2) 3 days post-SCI (SCI3), (3) 7 days post-SCI (SCI7) and (4) 15 days post-SCI (SCI15). Each of these groups had corresponding control (CTRL) and SHAM groups. Plasma iron and transferrin levels of the different groups were analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's test. We found a significant reduction in iron plasma levels after SCI compared with the CTRL group: SCI1 (CTRL: 175±10.58 μg dl(-1); SCI: 108.28±11.7 μg dl(-1)), SCI3 (CTRL: 195.5±11.00 μg dl(-1); SCI: 127.88±12.63 μg dl(-1)), SCI7 (CTRL: 186±2.97 μg dl(-1); SCI: 89.2±15.39 μg dl(-1)) and SCI15 (CTRL: 163±5.48 μg dl(-1); SCI: 124.44±10.30 μg dl(-1)) (P<0.05; ANOVA). The SHAM1 group demonstrated a reduction in iron plasma after acute SCI (CTRL: 175±10.58 μg dl(-1); SHAM: 114.60±7.81 μg dl(-1)) (P<0.05; ANOVA). Reduced iron metabolism after SCI may be one of the mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of sleep-related movement disorders.

  8. Quantitative assessments of burn degree by high-frequency ultrasonic backscattering and statistical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Yi-Hsun; Wang, Shyh-Hau [Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, and Institute of Medical Informatics, National Cheng Kung University, No 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan (China); Huang, Chih-Chung, E-mail: shyhhau@mail.ncku.edu.tw [Department of Electrical Engineering, Fu Jen Catholic University, 510, Chung Cheng Rd, Hsin Chuang, Taipei County 24205, Taiwan (China)

    2011-02-07

    An accurate and quantitative modality to assess the burn degree is crucial for determining further treatments to be properly applied to burn injury patients. Ultrasounds with frequencies higher than 20 MHz have been applied to dermatological diagnosis due to its high resolution and noninvasive capability. Yet, it is still lacking a substantial means to sensitively correlate the burn degree and ultrasonic measurements quantitatively. Thus, a 50 MHz ultrasound system was developed and implemented to measure ultrasonic signals backscattered from the burned skin tissues. Various burn degrees were achieved by placing a 100 deg. C brass plate onto the dorsal skins of anesthetized rats for various durations ranged from 5 to 20 s. The burn degrees were correlated with ultrasonic parameters, including integrated backscatter (IB) and Nakagami parameter (m) calculated from ultrasonic signals acquired from the burned tissues of a 5 x 1.4 mm (width x depth) area. Results demonstrated that both IB and m decreased exponentially with the increase of burn degree. Specifically, an IB of -79.0 {+-} 2.4 (mean {+-} standard deviation) dB for normal skin tissues tended to decrease to -94.0 {+-} 1.3 dB for those burned for 20 s, while the corresponding Nakagami parameters tended to decrease from 0.76 {+-} 0.08 to 0.45 {+-} 0.04. The variation of both IB and m was partially associated with the change of properties of collagen fibers from the burned tissues verified by samples of tissue histological sections. Particularly, the m parameter may be more sensitive to differentiate burned skin due to the fact that it has a greater rate of change with respect to different burn durations. These ultrasonic parameters in conjunction with high-frequency B-mode and Nakagami images could have the potential to assess the burn degree quantitatively.

  9. Numerical model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Jeffrey S.; Uccellini, Louis W.; Brill, Keith F.

    1988-01-01

    A mesoscale model simulation of the Presidents' Day cyclone at 1200 GMT 18 February 1979 is presented which captures the upper-tropospheric intrusion of stratospheric air upstream of the East Coast and subsequent development of the surface cyclone. The model simulation is then used to examine the descent of the stratospheric air mass and the interaction of this air mass with a lower-tropospheric potential vorticity maximum associated with an inverted trough and coastal front along the East Coast. The model is also used to examine the processes that contribute to the rapid decrease of sea-level pressure and increase in lower-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity during the explosive development phase of the cyclone.

  10. Modeling DNA affinity landscape through two-round support vector regression with weighted degree kernels

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Xiaolei

    2014-12-12

    Background: A quantitative understanding of interactions between transcription factors (TFs) and their DNA binding sites is key to the rational design of gene regulatory networks. Recent advances in high-throughput technologies have enabled high-resolution measurements of protein-DNA binding affinity. Importantly, such experiments revealed the complex nature of TF-DNA interactions, whereby the effects of nucleotide changes on the binding affinity were observed to be context dependent. A systematic method to give high-quality estimates of such complex affinity landscapes is, thus, essential to the control of gene expression and the advance of synthetic biology. Results: Here, we propose a two-round prediction method that is based on support vector regression (SVR) with weighted degree (WD) kernels. In the first round, a WD kernel with shifts and mismatches is used with SVR to detect the importance of subsequences with different lengths at different positions. The subsequences identified as important in the first round are then fed into a second WD kernel to fit the experimentally measured affinities. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to increase the accuracy of the affinity prediction by applying two rounds of string kernels and by identifying a small number of crucial k-mers. The proposed method was tested by predicting the binding affinity landscape of Gcn4p in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using datasets from HiTS-FLIP. Our method explicitly identified important subsequences and showed significant performance improvements when compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Based on the identified important subsequences, we discovered two surprisingly stable 10-mers and one sensitive 10-mer which were not reported before. Further test on four other TFs in S. cerevisiae demonstrated the generality of our method. Conclusion: We proposed in this paper a two-round method to quantitatively model the DNA binding affinity landscape. Since the ability to modify

  11. Euler-Lagrange modeling for a seven degree of freedom Manipulator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muñoz Arias, Mauricio; Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The Philips experimental robot arm is a kinematically redundant manipulator which is mainly aimed at increasing dexterity. The robot manipulator, developed by Philips Applied Technologies for domotic applications, has seven degrees of freedom and includes humanoid characteristics of a upper limb mot

  12. 3D instantaneous dynamics modeling of present-day Aegean subduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glerum, Anne; Spakman, Wim; van Hinsbergen, Douwe; Pranger, Casper

    2017-04-01

    To study the sensitivity of surface observables to subduction and mantle flow, i.e. the coupling of crustal tectonics and the underlying mantle dynamics, we have developed 3D numerical models of the instantaneous crust-mantle dynamics of the eastern Mediterranean. These models comprise both a realistic crust-lithosphere system and the underlying mantle. The focus for this presentation lies on the regional crustal flow response to the present-day Aegean subduction system. Our curved model domain measures 40°x40°x2900km with the Aegean subduction system taken as the geographic center. Model set-ups are based on geological and geophysical data of the eastern Mediterranean. We first create a 3D synthetic geometry of the crust-lithosphere system in a stand-alone program, including the present-day configuration of the plates in the region and crust and lithosphere thickness variations abstracted from Moho and LAB maps (Faccenna et al., 2014, Carafa et al., 2015). In addition we construct the geometry of the Aegean slab from a seismic tomography model (UU-P07; Amaru, 2007) and earthquake hypocenters (NCEDC, 2014). Geometries are then imported into the finite element code ASPECT (Kronbichler et al., 2012) using specially designed plugins. The mantle initial temperature conditions can include deviations from an adiabatic profile obtained from conversion of the UU-P07 seismic velocity anomalies to temperature anomalies using a depth-dependent scaling (Karato, 2008). We model compressible mantle flow for which material properties are obtained from thermodynamics P-T lookup-tables (Perple_X, Connolly, 2009) in combination with nonlinear viscoplastic rheology laws. Sublithospheric flow through the lateral model boundaries is left free via open boundary conditions (Chertova et al., 2012), while plate motion is prescribed at the model sides in terms of relative as well as absolute plate motion velocities (e.g. Doubrovine et al., 2012). So far, we used a free-slip surface, but

  13. Students' learning as the focus for shared involvement between universities and clinical practice: a didactic model for postgraduate degree projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öhlén, J; Berg, L; Björk Brämberg, E; Engström, Å; German Millberg, L; Höglund, I; Jacobsson, C; Lepp, M; Lidén, E; Lindström, I; Petzäll, K; Söderberg, S; Wijk, H

    2012-10-01

    In an academic programme, completion of a postgraduate degree project could be a significant means of promoting student learning in evidence- and experience-based practice. In specialist nursing education, which through the European Bologna process would be raised to the master's level, there is no tradition of including a postgraduate degree project. The aim was to develop a didactic model for specialist nursing students' postgraduate degree projects within the second cycle of higher education (master's level) and with a specific focus on nurturing shared involvement between universities and healthcare settings. This study embodies a participatory action research and theory-generating design founded on empirically practical try-outs. The 3-year project included five Swedish universities and related healthcare settings. A series of activities was performed and a number of data sources secured. Constant comparative analysis was applied. A didactic model is proposed for postgraduate degree projects in specialist nursing education aimed at nurturing shared involvement between universities and healthcare settings. The focus of the model is student learning in order to prepare the students for participation as specialist nurses in clinical knowledge development. The model is developed for the specialist nursing education, but it is general and could be applicable to various education programmes.

  14. A model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Jeffrey S.; Uccellini, Louis W.; Brill, Keith F.

    1988-01-01

    A model simulation of the rapid development phaser of the Presidents' Day cyclone on February 19, 1979, is studied. Model trajectories and Eulerian analyses show that, during this phase, three airstreams converge into the cyclogenetic region. The evolution of the PJ-trough system and its associated tropopause fold is described, including the simulated surface low and the vertical profile of mass divergence which contributes to the decreasing sea-level pressure. The various terms of the vorticity equation are evaluated to identify the processes contributing to the increase in absolute vorticity. The nature and origin of airstreams entering the low-level circulation associated with rapid cyclogenesis are examined from a Lagrangian perspective.

  15. Io's Magnetospheric Interaction: An MHD Model with Day-Night Asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabin, K.; Combi, M. R.; Gombosi, T. I.; DeZeeuw, D. L.; Hansen, K. C.; Powell, K. G.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we present the results of all improved three-dimensional MHD model for Io's interaction with Jupiter's magnetosphere. We have included the day-night asymmetry into the spatial distribution of our mass-loading, which allowed us to reproduce several smaller features or the Galileo December 1995 data set. The calculation is performed using our newly modified description of the pick-up processes that accounts for the effects of the corotational electric field existing in the Jovian magnetosphere. This change in the formulation of the source terms for the MHD equations resulted in significant improvements in the comparison with the Galileo measurements. We briefly discuss the limitations of our model and possible future improvements.

  16. One day prediction of nighttime VLF amplitudes using nonlinear autoregression and neural network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, H.; Hobara, Y.

    2017-01-01

    The electric field amplitude of very low frequency (VLF) transmitter from Hawaii (NPM) has been continuously recorded at Chofu (CHF), Tokyo, Japan. The VLF amplitude variability indicates lower ionospheric perturbation in the D region (60-90 km altitude range) around the NPM-CHF propagation path. We carried out the prediction of daily nighttime mean VLF amplitude by using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Neural Network (NARX NN). The NARX NN model, which was built based on the daily input variables of various physical parameters such as stratospheric temperature, total column ozone, cosmic rays, Dst, and Kp indices possess good accuracy during the model building. The fitted model was constructed within the training period from 1 January 2011 to 4 February 2013 by using three algorithms, namely, Bayesian Neural Network (BRANN), Levenberg Marquardt Neural Network (LMANN), and Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG). The LMANN has the largest Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.94 and smallest root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.19 dB. The constructed models by using LMANN were applied to predict the VLF amplitude from 5 February 2013 to 31 December 2013. As a result the one step (1 day) ahead predicted nighttime VLF amplitude has the r of 0.93 and RMSE of 2.25 dB. We conclude that the model built according to the proposed methodology provides good predictions of the electric field amplitude of VLF waves for NPM-CHF (midlatitude) propagation path.

  17. Ionosphere data assimilation modeling of 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. H.; Lin, C. H.; Matsuo, T.; Chen, W. H.

    2016-11-01

    The ionospheric plasma disturbances during a severe storm can affect human activities and systems, such as navigation and HF communication systems. Therefore, the forecast of ionospheric electron density is becoming an important topic recently. This study is conducted with the ionospheric assimilation model by assimilating the total electron content observations into the thermosphere-ionosphere coupling model with different high-latitude ionospheric convection models, Heelis and Weimer, and further to forecast the variations of ionospheric electron density during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm. The forecast capabilities of these two assimilation models are evaluated by the root-mean-square error values in different regions to discuss its latitudinal effects. Results show the better forecast in the electron density at the low-latitude region during the storm main phase and the recovery phase. The well reproduced eastward electric field at the low-latitude region by the assimilation model reveals that the electric fields may be an important factor to have the contributions on the accuracy of ionospheric forecast.

  18. Genetic parameters for tunisian holsteins using a test-day random regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammami, H; Rekik, B; Soyeurt, H; Ben Gara, A; Gengler, N

    2008-05-01

    Genetic parameters of milk, fat, and protein yields were estimated in the first 3 lactations for registered Tunisian Holsteins. Data included 140,187; 97,404; and 62,221 test-day production records collected on 22,538; 15,257; and 9,722 first-, second-, and third-parity cows, respectively. Records were of cows calving from 1992 to 2004 in 96 herds. (Co)variance components were estimated by Bayesian methods and a 3-trait-3-lactation random regression model. Gibbs sampling was used to obtain posterior distributions. The model included herd x test date, age x season of calving x stage of lactation [classes of 25 days in milk (DIM)], production sector x stage of lactation (classes of 5 DIM) as fixed effects, and random regression coefficients for additive genetic, permanent environmental, and herd-year of calving effects, which were defined as modified constant, linear, and quadratic Legendre coefficients. Heritability estimates for 305-d milk, fat and protein yields were moderate (0.12 to 0.18) and in the same range of parameters estimated in management systems with low to medium production levels. Heritabilities of test-day milk and protein yields for selected DIM were higher in the middle than at the beginning or the end of lactation. Inversely, heritabilities of fat yield were high at the peripheries of lactation. Genetic correlations among 305-d yield traits ranged from 0.50 to 0.86. The largest genetic correlation was observed between the first and second lactation, potentially due to the limited expression of genetic potential of superior cows in later lactations. Results suggested a lack of adaptation under the local management and climatic conditions. Results should be useful to implement a BLUP evaluation for the Tunisian cow population; however, results also indicated that further research focused on data quality might be needed.

  19. Superintegrable models on Riemannian surfaces of revolution with integrals of any integer degree (I)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Galliano

    2017-07-01

    We present a family of superintegrable (SI) systems which live on a Riemannian surface of revolution and which exhibit one linear integral and two integrals of any integer degree larger or equal to 2 in the momenta. When this degree is 2, one recovers a metric due to Koenigs. The local structure of these systems is under control of a linear ordinary differential equation of order n which is homogeneous for even integrals and weakly inhomogeneous for odd integrals. The form of the integrals is explicitly given in the so-called "simple" case (see Definition 2). Some globally defined examples are worked out which live either in H2 or in R2.

  20. Governance: Blending Bureaucratic Rules with Day to Day Operational Realities Comment on "Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinitz, David P

    2016-05-31

    Richard Saltman and Antonio Duran take up the challenging issue of governance in their article "Governance, Government and the Search for New Provider Models," and use two case studies of health policy changes in Sweden and Spain to shed light on the subject. In this commentary, I seek to link their conceptualization of governance, especially its interrelated roles at the macro, meso, and micro levels of health systems, with the case studies on which they report. While the case studies focus on the shifts in governance between the macro and meso levels and their impacts on achievement of desired policy outcomes, they also highlight the need to better integrate the dynamics of day to day operations within micro organizations into the overall governance picture.

  1. Simulation of the present-day climate with the climate model INMCM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volodin, E. M.; Mortikov, E. V.; Kostrykin, S. V.; Galin, V. Ya.; Lykossov, V. N.; Gritsun, A. S.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Iakovlev, N. G.

    2017-02-01

    In this paper we present the fifth generation of the INMCM climate model that is being developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INMCM5). The most important changes with respect to the previous version (INMCM4) were made in the atmospheric component of the model. Its vertical resolution was increased to resolve the upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere. A more sophisticated parameterization of condensation and cloudiness formation was introduced as well. An aerosol module was incorporated into the model. The upgraded oceanic component has a modified dynamical core optimized for better implementation on parallel computers and has two times higher resolution in both horizontal directions. Analysis of the present-day climatology of the INMCM5 (based on the data of historical run for 1979-2005) shows moderate improvements in reproduction of basic circulation characteristics with respect to the previous version. Biases in the near-surface temperature and precipitation are slightly reduced compared with INMCM4 as well as biases in oceanic temperature, salinity and sea surface height. The most notable improvement over INMCM4 is the capability of the new model to reproduce the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biannual oscillation and statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings.

  2. Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

  3. Present-day constraint for tropical Pacific precipitation changes due to global warming in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2016-11-01

    The sensitivity of the precipitation responses to greenhouse warming can depend on the present-day climate. In this study, a robust linkage between the present-day precipitation climatology and precipitation change owing to global warming is examined in inter-model space. A model with drier climatology in the present-day simulation tends to simulate an increase in climatological precipitation owing to global warming. Moreover, the horizontal gradient of the present-day precipitation climatology plays an important role in determining the precipitation changes. On the basis of these robust relationships, future precipitation changes are calibrated by removing the impact of the present-day precipitation bias in the climate models. To validate this result, the perfect model approach is adapted, which treats a particular model's precipitation change as an observed change. The results suggest that the precipitation change pattern can be generally improved by applying the present statistical approach.

  4. The start of the Sagittarius spiral arm (Sagittarius origin) and the start of the Norma spiral arm (Norma origin) - model-computed and observed arm tangents at galactic longitudes -20 degrees < l < +23 degrees

    CERN Document Server

    Vallee, Jacques P

    2016-01-01

    Here we fitted a 4-arm spiral structure to the more accurate data on global arm pitch angle and arm longitude tangents, to get the start of each spiral arm near the Galactic nucleus. We find that the tangent to the 'start of the Sagittarius' spiral arm (arm middle) is at l= -17 degrees +/- 0.5 degree, while the tangent to the 'start of the Norma' spiral arm (arm middle) is at l= +20 degrees +/- 0.5 degree. Earlier, we published a compilation of observations and analysis of the tangent to each spiral arm tracer, from longitudes +23 degrees to +340 degrees; here we cover the arm tracers in the remaining longitudes +340 degrees (=- 20 degrees) to +23 degrees. Our model arm tangents are confirmed through the recent observed masers data (at the arm's inner edge). Observed arm tracers in the inner Galaxy show an offset from the mid-arm; this was also found elsewhere in the Milky Way disk (Vallee 2014c). In addition, we collated the observed tangents to the so-called '3-kpc-arm' features; here they are found statist...

  5. Six-degree-of-freedom Sensor Fish design - Governing equations and motion modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richmond, M. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Simmons, C. S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, T. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The Sensor Fish device is being used at Northwest hydropower projects to better understand the conditions fish experience during passage through hydro turbines and other dam bypass alternatives. Since its initial development in 1997, the Sensor Fish has undergone numerous design changes to improve its function and extend the range of its use. The most recent Sensor Fish design, the three degree of freedom (3DOF) device, has been used successfully to characterize the environment fish experience when passing through turbines, in spill, or in engineered fish bypass facilities at dams. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is in the process of redesigning the current 3DOF Sensor Fish device package to improve its field performance. Rate gyros will be added to the new six degree of freedom (6DOF) device so that it will be possible to observe the six linear and angular accelerations of the Sensor Fish as it passes the dam. Before the 6DOF Sensor Fish device can be developed and deployed, governing equations of motion must be developed in order to understand the design implications of instrument selection and placement within the body of the device. The report describes a fairly general formulation for the coordinate systems, equations of motion, force and moment relationships necessary to simulate the 6DOF movement of an underwater body.

  6. Maturation curves and degree-days accumulation for fruits of 'Folha Murcha' orange trees Curvas de maturação e graus-dia acumulados para frutos de plantas de laranjeira 'Folha Murcha'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neusa Maria Colauto Stenzel

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The effect of thermal summation on orange fruit growth on different rootstocks has not been studied for the State of Paraná, Brazil. This research evaluated the growth of fruits by means of maturation curves, and quantified the growing degree-days (GDD accumulation required for fruit maturation in 'Folha Murcha' orange trees budded on 'Rangpur' lime, 'Volkamer' lemon, 'Sunki' mandarin, and 'Cleopatra' mandarin, in Paranavaí and Londrina, PR. In both locations and all rootstocks, the fruits showed evolution in total soluble solids (TSS content in relation to GDD accumulation, with a quadratic tendency of curve fitting; total titratable acidity (TTA had an inverse quadratic fitting, and the (TSS/TTA ratio showed a positive linear regression. Fruits in Paranavaí presented a higher development rate towards maturity than those in Londrina, for all rootstocks. The advancing of the initial maturation stage of fruits in Paranavaí in relation to those in Londrina occurred in the following descending order: 'Volkamer' lemon (92 days, 'Cleopatra' mandarin (81 days, 'Sunki' mandarin (79 days, 'Rangpur' lime (77 days. In Londrina, trees on 'Rangpur' lime and 'Volkamer' lemon were ready for harvest 8 and 15 days before those on the 'Cleopatra' and 'Sunki' mandarins, respectively. In Paranavaí, the beginning of fruit maturation in trees on 'Volkamer' lemon occurred 15, 19, and 28 days earlier than on 'Rangpur' lime, 'Cleopatra' mandarin, and 'Sunki' mandarin, respectively. Considering 12.8ºC as the lower base temperature, the thermal sum for fruit growth and maturation of 'Folha Murcha' orange ranged from 4,462 to 5,090 GDD.O efeito da soma térmica no crescimento do fruto de laranja em diferentes porta-enxertos não tem sido estudado no Estado do Paraná, Brasil. Esta pesquisa avaliou o crescimento dos frutos por meio de curvas de maturação e quantificou os graus-dia acumulados (GDA necessários para a maturação dos frutos em laranjeiras 'Folha

  7. Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Welker

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the wind gusts and associated economic loss patterns of high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland between 1871 and 2011. A novel approach for simulating windstorm-related gusts and losses at regional to local scales is applied to a sample of 84 windstorms. The approach involves the dynamical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR ensemble mean to 3-km horizontal grid size using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. Economic losses are simulated at municipal level for present-day asset distribution based on the downscaled (parameterised wind gusts at high spatiotemporal resolution using the open-source impact model climada. A comparison with insurance loss data for two recent windstorms (“Lothar” in 1999, “Joachim” in 2011 indicates that the loss simulation allows to realistically simulate the spatial patterns of windstorm losses. The loss amplitude is strongly underestimated for ‘Lothar’, while it is in reasonable agreement for ‘Joachim’. Possible reasons are discussed. Uncertainties concerning the loss simulation arise from the wind gust estimation method applied; estimates can differ considerably among the different methods, in particular over high orography. Furthermore, the quality of the loss simulation is affected by the underlying simplified assumptions regarding the distribution of assets and their susceptibilities to damage. For the whole windstorm sample, composite averages of simulated wind gust speed and loss are computed. Both composites reveal high values for the densely populated Swiss Plateau and lower values for south-eastern Switzerland; metropolitan areas stand out in the loss composite. Eight of the top 10 events concerning the losses simulated for present-day asset distribution and summed over all Swiss municipalities occurred after 1950. It remains uncertain whether this is due to decadal-scale changes of winter windstorms in Switzerland or merely due to a

  8. Comparison of predictive modeling approaches for 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Tong

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper explores the importance of electronic medical records (EMR for predicting 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk of patients and presents a comparison of prediction performance of commonly used methods. Methods The data are extracted from eight Advocate Health Care hospitals. Index admissions are excluded from the cohort if they are observation, inpatient admissions for psychiatry, skilled nursing, hospice, rehabilitation, maternal and newborn visits, or if the patient expires during the index admission. Data are randomly and repeatedly divided into fitting and validating sets for cross validations. Approaches including LACE, STEPWISE logistic, LASSO logistic, and AdaBoost, are compared with sample sizes varying from 2,500 to 80,000. Results Our results confirm that LACE has moderate discrimination power with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC around 0.65-0.66, which can be improved to 0.73-0.74 when additional variables from EMR are considered. These variables include Inpatient in the last six months, Number of emergency room visits or inpatients in the last year, Braden score, Polypharmacy, Employment status, Discharge disposition, Albumin level, and medical condition variables such as Leukemia, Malignancy, Renal failure with hemodialysis, History of alcohol substance abuse, Dementia and Trauma. When sample size is small (≤5000, LASSO is the best; when sample size is large (≥20,000, the predictive performance is similar. The STEPWISE method has a slightly lower AUC (0.734 comparing to LASSO (0.737 and AdaBoost (0.737. More than one half of the selected predictors can be false positives when using a single method and a single division of fitting/validating data. Conclusions True predictors can be identified by repeatedly dividing data into fitting/validating subsets and referring the final model based on summarizing results. LASSO is a better alternative to the STEPWISE

  9. Beyond the growth rate of cosmic structure: Testing modified gravity models with an extra degree of freedom

    CERN Document Server

    Burrage, Clare; Seery, David

    2015-01-01

    In 'modified' gravity the observed acceleration of the universe is explained by changing the gravitational force law or the number of degrees of freedom in the gravitational sector. Both possibilities can be tested by measurements of cosmological structure formation. In this paper we elaborate the details of such tests using the Galileon model as a case study. We pay attention to the possibility that each new degree of freedom may have stochastically independent initial conditions, generating different types of potential well in the early universe and breaking complete correlation between density and velocity power spectra. This 'stochastic bias' can confuse schemes to parametrize the predictions of modified gravity models, such as the use of the growth parameter f alone. Using data from the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey we show that it will be possible to obtain constraints using information about the cosmological-scale force law embedded in the multipole power spectra of redshift-space distortions. As an examp...

  10. PROBE OF CONVOY LORRY’S ROADABILITY ON MODEL WITH FOUR FREEDOM DEGREES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dyachuk

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of curvilinear movement of the lorry convoy is considered. The mathematical model of movement of two links flat system is developed; the software in the language of technical computing MATLAB is created; results of movement modeling on an example of jointed structure MAZ-643008 + NEFAZ-96931 taking into account distribution of steered wheels rotation angles and elastic properties of tires of wheels are analyzed.

  11. Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Cheng-Chang

    2012-01-01

    The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

  12. Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Cheng-Chang

    2012-01-01

    The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

  13. Analysis of isometric cervical strength with a nonlinear musculoskeletal model with 48 degrees of freedom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Bruijn, E.; Van der Helm, F.C.T.; Happee, R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Musculoskeletal models served to analyze head–neck motion and injury during automotive impact. Although muscle activation is known to affect the kinematic response, a model with properly validated muscle contributions does not exist to date. The goal of this study was to enhance a muscul

  14. Analysis of isometric cervical strength with a nonlinear musculoskeletal model with 48 degrees of freedom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Bruijn, E.; Van der Helm, F.C.T.; Happee, R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Musculoskeletal models served to analyze head–neck motion and injury during automotive impact. Although muscle activation is known to affect the kinematic response, a model with properly validated muscle contributions does not exist to date. The goal of this study was to enhance a muscul

  15. Modeling of wastewater quality in an urban area during festival and rainy days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obaid, H A; Shahid, S; Basim, K N; Chelliapan, S

    2015-01-01

    Water pollution during festival periods is a major problem in all festival cities across the world. Reliable prediction of water pollution is essential in festival cities for sewer and wastewater management in order to ensure public health and a clean environment. This article aims to model the biological oxygen demand (BOD(5)), and total suspended solids (TSS) parameters in wastewater in the sewer networks of Karbala city center during festival and rainy days using structural equation modeling and multiple linear regression analysis methods. For this purpose, 34 years (1980-2014) of rainfall, temperature and sewer flow data during festival periods in the study area were collected, processed, and employed. The results show that the TSS concentration increases by 26-46 mg/l while BOD(5) concentration rises by 9-19 mg/l for an increase of rainfall by 1 mm during festival periods. It was also found that BOD(5) concentration rises by 4-17 mg/l for each increase of 10,000 population.

  16. Day to day with COPD

    Science.gov (United States)

    COPD - day to day; Chronic obstructive airways disease - day to day; Chronic obstructive lung disease - day to ... Having COPD can sap your energy. These simple changes can make your days easier and preserve your strength. Ask ...

  17. Topographic gravity modeling for global Bouguer maps to degree 2160: Validation of spectral and spatial domain forward modeling techniques at the 10 microGal level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirt, Christian; Reußner, Elisabeth; Rexer, Moritz; Kuhn, Michael

    2016-09-01

    Over the past years, spectral techniques have become a standard to model Earth's global gravity field to 10 km scales, with the EGM2008 geopotential model being a prominent example. For some geophysical applications of EGM2008, particularly Bouguer gravity computation with spectral techniques, a topographic potential model of adequate resolution is required. However, current topographic potential models have not yet been successfully validated to degree 2160, and notable discrepancies between spectral modeling and Newtonian (numerical) integration well beyond the 10 mGal level have been reported. Here we accurately compute and validate gravity implied by a degree 2160 model of Earth's topographic masses. Our experiments are based on two key strategies, both of which require advanced computational resources. First, we construct a spectrally complete model of the gravity field which is generated by the degree 2160 Earth topography model. This involves expansion of the topographic potential to the 15th integer power of the topography and modeling of short-scale gravity signals to ultrahigh degree of 21,600, translating into unprecedented fine scales of 1 km. Second, we apply Newtonian integration in the space domain with high spatial resolution to reduce discretization errors. Our numerical study demonstrates excellent agreement (8 μGgal RMS) between gravity from both forward modeling techniques and provides insight into the convergence process associated with spectral modeling of gravity signals at very short scales (few km). As key conclusion, our work successfully validates the spectral domain forward modeling technique for degree 2160 topography and increases the confidence in new high-resolution global Bouguer gravity maps.

  18. TPACK MODEL IN DEGREE STUDIES FOR INITIAL TEACHER TRAINING IN ICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISABEL Mª GÓMEZ TRIGUEROS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available  Under the abbreviation TPACK we mention the acronym of “Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge” (TPCK or TPACK is made. It is a model of teaching and learning (E-A that identifies the types of knowledge that a teacher needs to master to integrate the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT in an effective way in imparting education. It is included among the cognitive models in cooperative environments, where, in addition, the technology is used. The pioneers in implementing this model are teachers Punya Mishra and Matthew J. Koehler, of Michigan State University (between 2006 and 2009. 

  19. Gravity field models derived from the second degree radial derivatives of the GOCE mission: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander N. Marchenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The GOCE satellite mission is one of the main achievements of the satellite geodesy for the Earth’s gravitational field recovery. Three different approaches have been developed for the estimation of harmonic coefficients from gradiometry data measured on board of GOCE-satellite. In this paper a special version of the space-wise method based on the second method of Neumann for fast determination of the harmonic coefficients Cnm, Snm of the Earth’s gravitational potential is given based on the radial gravity gradients of the EGG_TRF_2 product, except of two polar gaps filled by radial gradients from the EGM2008 gravity model. In the pre-processing stage GOCE-based second degree radial derivatives were averaged to the regular grid through Kalman static filter with additional Gaussean smoothing of residual radial derivatives. All computations are made by iterations. As the first step the determination of the preliminary NULP-01S model up to degree/order 220 derived from the Gaussean grid of the GOCE radial derivatives with respect to the WGS-84 reference field was developed based only one of the radial gradients EGG_TRF_2 in the EFRF-frame. In the second iteration the same algorithm is applied to build the NULP-02S gravity field model up to degree/order 250 using the same Gaussean grid with respect to the NULP-01S reference field. The NULP-02S model was verified by means of applying various approaches for the construction of the gridded gravity anomalies and geoid heights in the Black sea area using processing of datasets from six altimetry satellite missions. Comparison of different models with GNSS-levelling data in the USA area demonstrates the independent verification of achieved accuracy of the constructed NULP-02S Earth’s gravity field model.

  20. Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

    2017-08-01

    Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.

  1. Extending the Newns-Anderson model to molecules with floppy degrees of freedom. Validation by electronic structure calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Baldea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    In cases where reorganization is important, present theoretical studies of molecular transport have inherently to resort to models. The Newns-Anderson model is ubiquitous for this purpose but, to author's knowledge, attempts to validate/challenge this model by microscopic calculations are missing in the literature. In this work, results of electronic structure calculations are presented, which demonstrate that the conventional Newns-Anderson model fails to describe redox-active tunneling junctions of recent experimental interest. For the case considered, the ($4, 4^\\prime$)-bipyridine molecule, the failure traces back to the floppy degree of freedom represented by the relative rotation of the two pyridine rings. Expressions that generalize the Newns-Anderson model are deduced, which include significant anharmonicities. These expressions can be straightforwardly utilized as input information in calculations of the partially coherent transport.

  2. Dynamics model of underwater robot motion control in 6 degrees of freedom

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Ye; LIU Jian-cheng; SHEN Ming-xue

    2005-01-01

    In order to analyze underwater robot control system dynamics features, a system 6-DOF dynamics model was founded. Underwater robot linear and nonlinear hydrodynamics were analyzed by Taylor series,based on general motion equation. Special control system motion equation was deduced by cluster of inertial items and non-inertial items. For program convenience, motion equation matrix format was presented. Experimental principles of screw propellers, rudders and wings were discussed. Experimental data least-square curve fitting, interpolation and their corresponding traditional equation helped us to obtain the whole system dynamic response procedure. A series of simulation experiments show that the dynamics model is correct and reliable.The model can provide theory proof for analyzing underwater robot motion control system physics characters and provide a mathematic model for traditional control method.

  3. Fuzzy inferencing to identify degree of interaction in the development of fault prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rinkaj Goyal

    2017-01-01

    One related objective is the identification of influential metrics in the development of fault prediction models. A fuzzy rule intrinsically represents a form of interaction between fuzzified inputs. Analysis of these rules establishes that Low and NOT (High level of inheritance based metrics significantly contributes to the F-measure estimate of the model. Further, the Lack of Cohesion of Methods (LCOM metric was found insignificant in this empirical study.

  4. Infliximab's influence on anastomotic strength and degree of inflammation in intestinal surgery in a rabbit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frostberg, Erik; Ström, Petter; Gerke, Oke;

    2014-01-01

    and conclusions. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a single dose infliximab has an adverse effect on the anastomotic healing process, observed as reduced anastomotic breaking strength and histopathologically verified lower grade of inflammatory response, in the small intestine of a rabbit....... METHODS: Thirty New Zealand rabbits (median weight 2.5 kg) were allocated to treatment with an intravenous bolus of either 10 mg/kg infliximab (n = 15) or placebo (n = 15). One week later all rabbits underwent two separate end-to-end anastomoses in the jejunum under general anesthesia. At postoperative...... day three, the anastomotic breaking strength was determined and histopathological changes were examined. RESULTS: The mean value of anastomotic breaking strength in the placebo group was 1.89 +/- 0.36 N and the corresponding value was 1.81 +/- 0.33 N in the infliximab treated rabbits...

  5. Exact and Direct Modeling Technique for Rotor-Bearing Systems with Arbitrary Selected Degrees-of-Freedom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilin Chen

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available An exact and direct modeling technique is proposed for modeling of rotor-bearing systems with arbitrary selected degrees-of-freedom. This technique is based on the combination of the transfer and dynamic stiffness matrices. The technique differs from the usual combination methods in that the global dynamic stiffness matrix for the system or the subsystem is obtained directly by rearranging the corresponding global transfer matrix. Therefore, the dimension of the global dynamic stiffness matrix is independent of the number of the elements or the substructures. In order to show the simplicity and efficiency of the method, two numerical examples are given.

  6. On a New Six Degree of Freedom Modelling Method for Homing Missiles and its Application for Design/Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. N. Bhattacherjee

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available Development of an accurate six-degree-of-freedom (6-DOF simulation model for homing missiles incorporating seeker servosystem detailed modelling is reported. A new modelling concept for seeker servosystem simulation, the Newtonian equivalent model (NEM has been evolved, where body motion coupling is modelled through forces and moments transformed to the seeker. The NEM-based modelling of seeker head and its integration in 6-DOF has been discussed. In the presence of body coupling, the simulation model for seeker tracking or pointing error, gimbal angles and inertial line of sight (LOS rates as measured by the seeker mounted rate gyros have been obtained through the new modelling method. A novel method of obtaining optimum pitch and yaw LOS rates for proportional navigation (PN guidance mechanisation is formulated based on synthesised sight line rates measured in the seeker inner gimbal axis. This new method has been validated through simulation studies using the 6-DOF model developed and by comparing the results with those obtained by the conventional method of generating LOS rates for PN guidance. Other important applications of the 6-DOF model discussed are guidance and control design validation/tuning seeker feedforward compensation design tuning of switchover point from open-loop to closed-loop PN guidance. Importance of the detailed 6-DOF simulation model as the ultimate performance evaluation tool for the weapon system in terms of both terminal performance and adequacy of seeker field of view, gimbal angle freedom, etc. has been brought out.

  7. 360-degree video and X-ray modeling of the Galactic center's inner parsec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post Russell, Christopher Michael; Wang, Daniel; Cuadra, Jorge

    2017-08-01

    360-degree videos, which render an image over all 4pi steradian, provide a unique and immersive way to visualize astrophysical simulations. Video sharing sites such as YouTube allow these videos to be shared with the masses; they can be viewed in their 360° nature on computer screens, with smartphones, or, best of all, in virtual-reality (VR) goggles. We present the first such 360° video of an astrophysical simulation: a hydrodynamics calculation of the Wolf-Rayet stars and their ejected winds in the inner parsec of the Galactic center. Viewed from the perspective of the super-massive black hole (SMBH), the most striking aspect of the video, which renders column density, is the inspiraling and stretching of clumps of WR-wind material as they makes their way towards the SMBH. We will brielfy describe how to make 360° videos and how to publish them online in their desired 360° format.Additionally we discuss computing the thermal X-ray emission from a suite of Galactic-center hydrodynamic simulations that have various SMBH feedback mechanisms, which are compared to Chandra X-ray Visionary Program observations of the region. Over a 2-5” ring centered on Sgr A*, the spectral shape is well matched, indicating that the WR winds are the dominant source of the thermal X-ray emission. Furthermore, the X-ray flux depends on the SMBH feedback due to the feedback's ability to clear out material from the central parsec. A moderate outburst is necessary to explain the current thermal X-ray flux, even though the outburst ended ˜100 yr ago.

  8. On the two-day oscillations and the day-to-day variability in global 3-D-modeling of the chemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. Sonnemann

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The integration of the photochemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region brought evidence that the system is able to respond in a nonlinear manner under certain conditions. Under the action of the diurnally-periodic insolation, the system creates subharmonic oscillations or chaos if disregarding strong diffusion, and under special conditions it possesses multiple solutions. The models used in the past were simplified and idealized in view of the number of dimensions and the consideration of the full dynamics. On the basis of our global 3-D-model of the dynamics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere (COMMA-IAP, we also found a nonlinear response in the photochemistry under realistic conditions. The model under consideration is not yet self-consistent, but the chemical model uses the dynamical fields calculated by the dynamic model. From our calculations we got period-2 oscillations of the photochemical system within confined latitudinal regions around the solstices but not during the equinoxes. The consequence of the period-2 oscillation of the chemical active minor constituents is that a marked two-day variation of the chemical heating rates is an important thermal pumping mechanism. We discuss these findings particularly in terms of the influence of realistic dynamics on the creation of nonlinear effects.

  9. Sea Ice Sensitivities in the 0.72 degrees and 0.08 degrees Arctic Cap Coupled HYCOM/CICE Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory ( LANL ) CICE model. OBJECTIVES The objectives of the project are to optimize...together with NRL implement and test new versions of CICE in these coupled model set-ups as they become available from the LANL developers. APPROACH...fields will be compared with independent ice Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of

  10. Effects of Degree of Surgical Correction for Flatfoot Deformity in Patient-Specific Computational Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spratley, E M; Matheis, E A; Hayes, C W; Adelaar, R S; Wayne, J S

    2015-08-01

    A cohort of adult acquired flatfoot deformity rigid-body models was developed to investigate the effects of isolated tendon transfer with successive levels of medializing calcaneal osteotomy (MCO). Following IRB approval, six diagnosed flatfoot sufferers were subjected to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and their scans used to derive patient-specific models. Single-leg stance was modeled, constrained solely through physiologic joint contact, passive soft-tissue tension, extrinsic muscle force, body weight, and without assumptions of idealized mechanical joints. Surgical effect was quantified using simulated mediolateral (ML) and anteroposterior (AP) X-rays, pedobarography, soft-tissue strains, and joint contact force. Radiographic changes varied across states with the largest average improvements for the tendon transfer (TT) + 10 mm MCO state evidenced through ML and AP talo-1st metatarsal angles. Interestingly, 12 of 14 measures showed increased deformity following TT-only, though all increases disappeared with inclusion of MCO. Plantar force distributions showed medial forefoot offloading concomitant with increases laterally such that the most corrected state had 9.0% greater lateral load. Predicted alterations in spring, deltoid, and plantar fascia soft-tissue strain agreed with prior cadaveric and computational works suggesting decreased strain medially with successive surgical repair. Finally, joint contact force demonstrated consistent medial offloading concomitant with variable increases laterally. Rigid-body modeling thus offers novel advantages for the investigation of foot/ankle biomechanics not easily measured in vivo.

  11. Permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia with 0.5 degree spatial resolution for model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Beer

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991, rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5 degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001 degree spatial resolution. The gridded datasets can be accessed at the PANGAEA repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.808240. Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the isolated permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.

  12. Theory and simulations for hard-disk models of binary mixtures of molecules with internal degrees of freedom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fraser, Diane P.; Zuckermann, Martin J.; Mouritsen, Ole G.

    1991-01-01

    A two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method based on the NpT ensemble and the Voronoi tesselation, which was previously developed for single-species hard-disk systems, is extended, along with a version of scaled-particle theory, to many-component mixtures. These systems are unusual in the sense...... that their composition is not fixed, but rather determined by a set of internal degeneracies assigned to the differently sized hard disks, where the larger disks have the higher degeneracies. Such systems are models of monolayers of molecules with internal degrees of freedom. The combined set of translational...... and internal degrees of freedom leads to a rich phase structure that includes solid-liquid transitions (governed by the translational variables) as well as transitions involving changes in average disk size (governed by the internal variables). The relationship between these two types of transitions is studied...

  13. Permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia with 0.5-degree spatial resolution for model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, C.; Fedorov, A. N.; Torgovkin, Y.

    2013-09-01

    Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991), rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5-degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001-degree spatial resolution. The gridded datasets can be accessed at the PANGAEA repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.808240). Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the sporadic permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.

  14. A Modeling Study of Diurnal Rainfall Variations during the 21-Day Period of TOGA COARE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Shouting; CUI Xiaopeng; Xiaofan LI

    2009-01-01

    The surface rainfall processes and diurnal variations associated with tropical oceanic convection are examined by analyzing a surface rainfall equation and thermal budget based on hourly zonal-mean data from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations.The model is integrated for 21 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity,zonal wind,and horizontal advection obtained from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the control experiment.Diurnal analysis shows that the infrared radiative cooling after sunset,as well as the advective cooling associated with imposed large-scale ascending motion,destabilize the atmosphere and release convective available potential energy to energize nocturnal convective development.Substantial local atmospheric drying is associated with the nocturnal rainfall peak in early morning,which is a result of the large condensation and deposition rates in the vapor budget.Sensitivity experiments show that diurnal variations of radiation and large-scale forcing can produce a nocturnal rainfall peak through infrared and advective cooling,respectively.

  15. PRECIPITATION, A PRESENT-DAY MODELLING FACTOR IN THE ORĂŞTIE CORRIDOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CĂTĂLINA MĂRCULEŢ

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This Corridor, which extends between the confluence of the Mureş River and its tributaries Sebeş and the Strei, is subjected to vast modelling processes (rain-induced weathering, surface erosion, gullying, torrential activity and landsliding, triggered largely by precipitation. Annual mean values are over 500 mm; however, maximum precipitation/24 hrs of up to 75 mm have the greatest impact. Slope processes are enhanced with precipitation of over 10 mm / day, more frequently occurring from June through to September. The analysis of the Fournier Index (an indicator of rain-induced erosion has revealed that maximum values were recorded by the Sebeş and Deva weather station in June and July. Large quantities of torrential and lasting precipitation are a frequent occurrence also during transitional seasons, having the same detrimental effects, mostly in spring when harvested soils are already moist from snowmelt. Whenever heavy rains fall after long periods of dryness, the soil is severely impaired by raininduced denudation, especially on slopes cultivated with hoeing plants.

  16. Physiological modeling for detecting degree of perception of a color-deficient person.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajalakshmi, T; Prince, Shanthi

    2017-04-01

    Physiological modeling of retina plays a vital role in the development of high-performance image processing methods to produce better visual perception. People with normal vision have an ability to discern different colors. The situation is different in the case of people with color blindness. The aim of this work is to develop a human visual system model for detecting the level of perception of people with red, green and blue deficiency by considering properties like luminance, spatial and temporal frequencies. Simulation results show that in the photoreceptor, outer plexiform and inner plexiform layers, the energy and intensity level of the red, green and blue component for a normal person is proved to be significantly higher than for dichromats. The proposed method explains with appropriate results that red and blue color blindness people could not perceive red and blue color completely.

  17. Environmental stress level evaluation approach based on physical model and interval grey association degree

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Deng Guanqian; Qiu Jing; Liu Guanjun; Lv Kehong

    2013-01-01

    Associating environmental stresses (ESs) with built-in test (BIT) output is an important means to help diagnose intermittent faults (IFs).Aiming at low efficiency in association of traditional time stress measurement device (TSMD),an association model is built.Thereafter,a novel approach is given to evaluate the integrated environmental stress (IES) level.Firstly,the selection principle and approach of main environmental stresses (MESs) and key characteristic parameters (KCPs) are presented based on fault mode,mechanism,and ESs analysis (FMMEA).Secondly,reference stress events (RSEs) are constructed by dividing IES into three stress levels according to its impact on faults; and then the association model between integrated environmental stress event (IESE) and BIT output is built.Thirdly,an interval grey association approach to evaluate IES level is proposed due to the interval number of IES value.Consequently,the association output can be obtained as well.Finally,a case study is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.Results show the proposed model and approach are effective and feasible.This approach can be used to guide ESs measure,record,and association.It is well suited for on-line assistant diagnosis of faults,especially IFs.

  18. System identification modeling of ship manoeuvring motion in 4 degrees of freedom based on support vector machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xue-gang; Zou, Zao-jian; Yu, Long; Cai, Wei

    2015-06-01

    Based on support vector machines, three modeling methods, i.e., white-box modeling, grey-box modeling and black-box modeling of ship manoeuvring motion in 4 degrees of freedom are investigated. With the whole-ship mathematical model for ship manoeuvring motion, in which the hydrodynamic coefficients are obtained from roll planar motion mechanism test, some zigzag tests and turning circle manoeuvres are simulated. In the white-box modeling and grey-box modeling, the training data taken every 5 s from the simulated 20°/20° zigzag test are used, while in the black-box modeling, the training data taken every 5 s from the simulated 15°/15°, 20°/20° zigzag tests and 15°, 25° turning manoeuvres are used; and the trained support vector machines are used to predict the whole 20°/20° zigzag test. Comparisons between the simulated and predicted 20?/20° zigzag tests show good predictive ability of the proposed methods. Besides, all mathematical models obtained by the proposed modeling methods are used to predict the 10°/10° zigzag test and 35° turning circle manoeuvre, and the predicted results are compared with those of simulation tests to demonstrate the good generalization performance of the mathematical models. Finally, the proposed modeling methods are analyzed and compared with each other in aspects of application conditions, prediction accuracy and computation speed. The appropriate modeling method can be chosen according to the intended use of the mathematical models and the available data needed for system identification.

  19. System Identification Modeling of Ship Manoeuvring Motion in 4 Degrees of Freedom Based on Support Vector Machines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪刚; 邹早建; 余龙; 蔡韡

    2015-01-01

    Based on support vector machines, three modeling methods, i.e., white-box modeling, grey-box modeling and black-box modeling of ship manoeuvring motion in 4 degrees of freedom are investigated. With the whole-ship mathematical model for ship manoeuvring motion, in which the hydrodynamic coefficients are obtained from roll planar motion mechanism test, some zigzag tests and turning circle manoeuvres are simulated. In the white-box modeling and grey-box modeling, the training data taken every 5 s from the simulated 20°/20° zigzag test are used, while in the black-box modeling, the training data taken every 5 s from the simulated 15°/15°, 20°/20° zigzag tests and 15°, 25° turning manoeuvres are used; and the trained support vector machines are used to predict the whole 20°/20° zigzag test. Comparisons between the simulated and predicted 20°/20° zigzag tests show good predictive ability of the proposed methods. Besides, all mathematical models obtained by the proposed modeling methods are used to predict the 10°/10° zigzag test and 35° turning circle manoeuvre, and the predicted results are compared with those of simulation tests to demonstrate the good generalization performance of the mathematical models. Finally, the proposed modeling methods are analyzed and compared with each other in aspects of application conditions, prediction accuracy and computation speed. The appropriate modeling method can be chosen according to the intended use of the mathematical models and the available data needed for system identification.

  20. Computation of Fifth Degree of Spline Function Model by Using C++ Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faraidun K. HamaSalh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new quintic spline method developed for computing approximate solution of differential equations. It is shown that the present method is of the order three and four derivatives and gives approximations which are better. The numerical result obtained by the present method has been compared with the exact solution using C++ programming and also illustrate graphically the applicability of the new method. By getting the advantages of the mathematical building functions like pow (for power, exp (for exponential, etc. are provided in C++ programming library, all processing steps are done efficiently and illustrated as Pseudocode model.

  1. Infection models for Salmonella typhimurium DT110 in day-old and 14-day-old broiler chickens kept in isolators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Holm, Lotte Bjerrum; Engberg, R.M.; Pedersen, Karl

    2003-01-01

    A series of experiments was undertaken to investigate the infection dynamics of various doses of S. typhimurium in day-old and 14-day-old broiler chickens kept in isolators. The infections were followed quantitatively in ceca and ileum by enumerating the colony forming units (cfu) of the challenge...... strain. It was found that the inoculation of 10(7) cfu of S. typhimurium to day-old chickens established stable cecal infection in all the animals for 35 days. For 14-day-old chickens, stable and lasting infections were seen with inoculation of 10(9) cfu. Lower doses yielded more variable results...

  2. Adaptation and failure of pancreatic beta cells in murine models with different degrees of metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina-Gomez, Gema; Yetukuri, Laxman; Velagapudi, Vidya; Campbell, Mark; Blount, Margaret; Jimenez-Linan, Mercedes; Ros, Manuel; Oresic, Matej; Vidal-Puig, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    The events that contribute to the expansion of beta-cell mass and enhanced beta-cell function in insulin-resistant states have not been elucidated fully. Recently, we showed that beta-cell adaptation failed dramatically in adult, insulin-resistant POKO mice, which contrasts with the appropriate expansion of beta cells in their ob/ob littermates. Thus, we hypothesised that characterisation of the islets in these mouse models at an early age should provide a unique opportunity to: (1) identify mechanisms involved in sensing insulin resistance at the level of the beta cells, (2) identify molecular effectors that contribute to increasing beta-cell mass and function, and (3) distinguish primary events from secondary events that are more likely to be present at more advanced stages of diabetes. Our results define the POKO mouse as a model of early lipotoxicity. At 4 weeks of age, it manifests with inappropriate beta-cell function and defects in proliferation markers. Other well-recognised pathogenic effectors that were observed previously in 16-week-old mice, such as increased reactive oxygen species (ROS), macrophage infiltration and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, are also present in both young POKO and young ob/ob mice, indicating the lack of predictive power with regards to the severity of beta-cell failure. Of interest, the relatively preserved lipidomic profile in islets from young POKO mice contrasted with the large changes in lipid composition and the differences in the chain length of triacylglycerols in the serum, liver, muscle and adipose tissue in adult POKO mice. Later lipotoxic insults in adult beta cells contribute to the failure of the POKO beta cell. Our results indicate that the rapid development of insulin resistance and beta-cell failure in POKO mice makes this model a useful tool to study early molecular events leading to insulin resistance and beta-cell failure. Furthermore, comparisons with ob/ob mice might reveal important adaptive mechanisms

  3. [Implementation of the new clinical practice training model in Andalusia: a qualitative evaluation of the Nursing and Physiotherapy degrees].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Sola, Cayetano; Granero-Molina, José; Márquez-Membrive, Josefa; Aguilera-Manrique, Gabriel; Castro-Sánchez, Adelaida M

    2014-01-01

    The design of new Bachelor degree courses, together with the agreement reached between the Regional Government of Andalusia and Andalusian universities shape the new clinical training model for Health Science students. The aim of this project is to present a qualitative evaluation of the implementation of the new model in Nursing and Physiotherapy degrees at the University of Almeria and the Andalusian Public Health System. An exploratory qualitative study using document content analysis techniques, by analyzing 12 reports from teachers and those responsible for Practicum in Nursing and Physiotherapy degrees at the University of Almeria. The reports included opinions and proposals from university and clinical placement teachers, healthcare professionals or clinical placement tutors, students, and those in positions of responsibility as regards clinical placements. Three categories emerged in the data analysis: Health system organization, with sub-categories of disparity between shifts, difficulties with supervisor coordination, feelings of a lack of control, disparities in evaluation criteria and geographic distribution; academic organization, with sub-categories of short rotations, a lack of information received by the clinical placement tutor, and carrying out placements without studying the theory; and management of the work agreement, with sub-categories of being discouraged by what is received in return, extra work for those in charge, and delays in evaluations. The study suggests a need to support and guide clinical tutors, to increase coordination between the university and health services, to organize the students' theoretical and practical training and to provide the management of the model with flexibility and transparency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  4. Modified Two-Degrees-of-Freedom Internal Model Control for Non-Square Systems with Multiple Time Delays

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian-Chang Liu; Nan Chen; Xia Yu

    2014-01-01

    A modified two-degrees-of-freedom ( M-TDOF) internal model control ( IMC) method is proposed for non-square systems with multiple time delays and right-half-plane (RHP) zeros. In this method, pseudo-inverse is introduced to design the internal model controller, and a desired closed-loop transfer function is designed to eliminate the unrealizable factors of the derived controller. In addition, set-point tracking and load-disturbance rejection of each process are separately controlled by two controllers. The simulation results show that in addition to high decoupling performance and robustness, the proposed control method also effectively improves load-disturbance rejection and simultaneously optimizes the input tracking performance and disturbance rejection performance by selecting the parameters of controllers. Furthermore, the higher tolerance of model mismatch is achieved in this paper.

  5. A new degree-2190 (10 km resolution) gravity field model for Antarctica developed from GRACE, GOCE and Bedmap2 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirt, Christian; Rexer, Moritz; Scheinert, Mirko; Pail, Roland; Claessens, Sten; Holmes, Simon

    2016-02-01

    The current high-degree global geopotential models EGM2008 and EIGEN-6C4 resolve gravity field structures to ˜ 10 km spatial scales over most parts of the of Earth's surface. However, a notable exception is continental Antarctica, where the gravity information in these and other recent models is based on satellite gravimetry observations only, and thus limited to about ˜ 80-120 km spatial scales. Here, we present a new degree-2190 global gravity model (GGM) that for the first time improves the spatial resolution of the gravity field over the whole of continental Antarctica to ˜ 10 km spatial scales. The new model called SatGravRET2014 is a combination of recent Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite gravimetry with gravitational signals derived from the 2013 Bedmap2 topography/ice thickness/bedrock model with gravity forward modelling in ellipsoidal approximation. Bedmap2 is a significantly improved description of the topographic mass distribution over the Antarctic region based on a multitude of topographic surveys, and a well-suited source for modelling short-scale gravity signals as we show in our study. We describe the development of SatGravRET2014 which entirely relies on spherical harmonic modelling techniques. Details are provided on the least-squares combination procedures and on the conversion of topography to implied gravitational potential. The main outcome of our work is the SatGravRET2014 spherical harmonic series expansion to degree 2190, and derived high-resolution grids of 3D-synthesized gravity and quasigeoid effects over the whole of Antarctica. For validation, six data sets from the IAG Subcommission 2.4f "Gravity and Geoid in Antarctica" (AntGG) database were used comprising a total of 1,092,981 airborne gravimetric observations. All subsets consistently show that the Bedmap2-based short-scale gravity modelling improves the agreement over satellite

  6. Measurement of competitiveness degree in Tunisian deposit banks: An application of the Panzar and Rosse model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mensi Sami

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the use of the Panzar-Rosse statistic as a basis for empirical assessment of competitive conditions among Tunisian deposit banks. The elaborated model has been tested with an interest revenues equation and a total revenues equation. Proceeding by means of an Ordinary Least Square analysis, the H-statistics is respectively estimated at 0.87 and 0.91. The computations undertaken using bank fixed effects and bank random effects General Least Square methods yield similar results. With reference to the reviewed literature, we are inclined to believe that Tunisian banks implement neither a joint monopoly nor a collusive competition context, and that they evolve within an oligopolistic competition context in a contestable market. Thus, it confirms the presence of a competitive environment.

  7. 二次型CSTR模型和SG模型的恒稳定解的degree%Degree of Steady-state Solutions of Quadratic CSTR Model and SG Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    廉进国; 孙炯

    2006-01-01

    Two systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations are studied,which are quadratic CSTR model and SG model.Strictly positive invariant regions are found for these models.It is shown that for each model,there exists only one steady-state solution in invariant region and its degree equals 1.These establish a foundation for studying the patterns of the extended quadratic CSTR model and SG model.%研究了两个非线性常微分方程系统二次型CSTR模型和SG模型.证明了这两个模型分别存在一个严格的正不变区域且它们在各自的正不变区域内只有一个恒稳定解,这个恒稳定解的Degree是1.这为研究推广的二次型CSTR模型和SG模型解的存在性奠定了基础.

  8. Linear degrees of freedom in speech production: analysis of cineradio- and labio-film data and articulatory-acoustic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beautemps, D; Badin, P; Bailly, G

    2001-05-01

    The following contribution addresses several issues concerning speech degrees of freedom in French oral vowels, stop, and fricative consonants based on an analysis of tongue and lip shapes extracted from cineradio- and labio-films. The midsagittal tongue shapes have been submitted to a linear decomposition where some of the loading factors were selected such as jaw and larynx position while four other components were derived from principal component analysis (PCA). For the lips, in addition to the more traditional protrusion and opening components, a supplementary component was extracted to explain the upward movement of both the upper and lower lips in [v] production. A linear articulatory model was developed; the six tongue degrees of freedom were used as the articulatory control parameters of the midsagittal tongue contours and explained 96% of the tongue data variance. These control parameters were also used to specify the frontal lip width dimension derived from the labio-film front views. Finally, this model was complemented by a conversion model going from the midsagittal to the area function, based on a fitting of the midsagittal distances and the formant frequencies for both vowels and consonants.

  9. Beyond the growth rate of cosmic structure: Testing modified gravity models with an extra degree of freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrage, Clare; Parkinson, David; Seery, David

    2017-08-01

    In "modified" gravity the observed acceleration of the universe is explained by changing the gravitational force law or the number of degrees of freedom in the gravitational sector. Both possibilities can be tested by measurements of cosmological structure formation. In this paper we elaborate the details of such tests using the Galileon model as a case study. We pay attention to the possibility that each new degree of freedom may have stochastically independent initial conditions, generating different types of potential well in the early universe and breaking complete correlation between density and velocity power spectra. This "stochastic bias" can confuse schemes to parametrize the predictions of modified gravity models, such as the use of the growth parameter f alone. Using data from the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey we show that it will be possible to obtain constraints using information about the cosmological-scale force law embedded in the multipole power spectra of redshift-space distortions. As an example, we obtain an upper limit on the strength of the conformal coupling to matter in the cubic Galileon model, giving |1 /M |≲200 /MP . This allows the fifth-force to be stronger than gravity, but is consistent with zero coupling.

  10. An Influence of Gas Explosions on Dynamic Responses of a Single Degree of Freedom Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki-Yeob Kang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosion risk analysis (ERA is widely used to derive the dimensioning of accidental loads for design purposes. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulations contribute a key part of an ERA and predict possible blast consequences in a hazardous area. Explosion pressures can vary based on the model geometry, the explosion intensity, and explosion scenarios. Dynamic responses of structures under these explosion loads are dependent on a blast wave profile with respect to the magnitude of pressure, duration, and impulse in both positive and negative phases. Understanding the relationship between explosion load profiles and dynamic responses of the target area is important to mitigate the risk of explosion and perform structural design optimization. In the present study, the results of more than 3,000 CFD simulations were considered, and 1.6 million output files were analyzed using a visual basic for applications (VBA tool developed to characterize representative loading shapes. Dynamic response of a structure was investigated in both time and frequency domains using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT algorithm. In addition, the effects of the residual wave and loading velocity were studied in this paper.

  11. A Risk Model to Predict 90-Day Mortality among Patients Undergoing Hepatic Resection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Omar; Pulitano, Carlo; Firoozmand, Amin; Dodson, Rebecca; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Choti, Michael A; Aldrighetti, Luca; Pawlik, Timothy M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Reliable criteria to predict mortality after hepatectomy remain poorly defined. We sought to identify factors associated with 90-day mortality, as well as validate the “50-50” and peak bilirubin of >7 mg/dL prediction rules for mortality after liver resection. In addition, we propose a novel integer-based score for 90-day mortality using a large cohort of patients. STUDY DESIGN Data from 2,056 patients who underwent liver resection at 2 major hepatobiliary centers between 1990 and 2011 were identified. Perioperative laboratory data, as well as surgical and postoperative details, were analyzed to identify factors associated with liver-related 90-day death. RESULTS Indications for liver resection included colorectal metastasis (39%), hepatocellular carcinoma (19%), benign mass (17%), or noncolorectal metastasis (14%). Most patients had normal underlying liver parenchyma (71%) and resection involved ≥3 segments (36%). Overall morbidity and mortality were 19% and 2%, respectively. Only 1 patient fulfilled the 50-50 criteria; this patient survived and was discharged on day 8. Twenty patients had a peak bilirubin concentration >7 mg/dL and 5 died within 90 days; the sensitivity and spec-ificity of the >7-mg/dL rule were 25% and 99.3%, respectively, but overall accuracy was poor (area under the curve 0.574). Factors associated with 90-day mortality included international normalized ratio (odds ratio = 11.87), bilirubin (odds ratio = 1.16), and serum creatinine (odds ratio = 1.87) on postoperative day 3, as well as grade of postoperative complications (odds ratio = 5.08; all p sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The 50-50 and bilirubin >7-mg/dL rules were not accurate in predicting 90-day mortality. Rather, a composite integer-based risk score based on postoperative day 3 international normalized ratio, bilirubin, creatinine, and complication grade more accurately predicted 90-day mortality after hepatectomy. PMID

  12. Convergence in spectral forward modelling: Binominal series solutions vs. direct integral solutions at high degrees - spherical and ellipsoidal case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rexer, Moritz; Claessens, Sten; Hirt, Christian

    2016-04-01

    The number of relevant terms of binominal series expansions used in spectral forward modelling of the gravitational potential is known to rise substantially as the resolution of the models increases. Here, we investigate and compare the binominal series expansions in forward modelling w.r.t. a sphere and w.r.t. an ellipsoid (Claessens and Hirt, 2013) in view of high degree forward modelling (d/o 10800). The series in each case depend on different parameters - such as elevation of the topographic function or ellipsoidal radius/co-latitude - and reveal different maximum orders of truncation for a 1% convergence level (=relative error). The results are verified in a real data scenario up to d/o 5400 by spot-checks using direct integral solutions that do not depend on binomial series expansions. As a conclusion, our study demonstrates that for d/o 10800 modelling up to 30 terms of the binominal series accounting for the radial integral are needed within the spherical and the ellipsoidal case, while up to 60 terms are needed for the binominal series accounting for the oblateness of Earth in the ellipsoidal case for a convergence at the 1% level. References: Claessens, S.J.; Hirt, C.: Ellipsoidal topographic potential - new solutions for spectral forward gravity modelling of topography with respect to a reference ellipsoid; Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) - Solid Earth, Vol. 118, DOI: 10.1002/2013JB010457, 2013.

  13. Development of a nursing practice based competency model for the Flemish master of nursing and obstetrics degree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Clercq, Gerlinde; Goelen, Guido; Danschutter, Dirk; Vermeulen, Joeri; Huyghens, Luc

    2011-01-01

    The aim was to identify a set of competences for the Flemish academic Master of Nursing and Obstetrics degree that answer perceived needs in health care. The competency model was to demonstrate a degree of consensus among key nurses. The study was conducted in all Flemish hospitals registered to have 400 beds or more. Head nurses of surgery, geriatrics and intensive care units were eligible to participate, as well as one nurse from administration per hospital. A two round Delphi process allowed participants to comment on items identified in an analysis of existing international competency profiles of master level nurses and adapted to the Flemish context. Competences agreed to by 90% of the respondents were considered to have consensus. Fifteen out of 19 eligible hospitals were recruited in the study, 45 nurses participated in the Delphi panel. Consensus was reached on 31 competences that can be assigned to 5 nurse's roles: nursing expert, innovator, researcher, educator and manager. The resulting competency profile is in accordance with published profiles for similar programs. The reported study demonstrates a practical method to develop a consensus competency model for an academic master program based on the input of key individuals in mainstream nursing.

  14. An exponential chemorheological model for viscosity dependence on degree-of-cure of a polyfurfuryl alcohol resin during the post-gel curing stage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominguez, J.C.; Oliet, M.; Alonso, María Virginia

    2016-01-01

    of modeling the evolution of the complex viscosity using a widely used chemorheological model such as the Arrhenius model for each tested temperature, the change of the complex viscosity as a function of the degree-of-cure was predicted using a new exponential type model. In this model, the logarithm...

  15. New bimaxillary orthognathic surgery planning and model surgery based on the concept of six degrees of freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jaeho; Kim, Yongdeok; Kim, Jongryoul; Kang, Heejea; Ji, Hyunjin

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to propose a new method of bimaxillary orthognathic surgery planning and model surgery based on the concept of 6 degrees of freedom (DOF). A 22-year-old man with Class III malocclusion was referred to our clinic with complaints of facial deformity and chewing difficulty. To correct a prognathic mandible, facial asymmetry, flat occlusal plane angle, labioversion of the maxillary central incisors, and concavity of the facial profile, bimaxillary orthognathic surgery was planned. After preoperative orthodontic treatment, surgical planning based on the concept of 6 DOF was performed on a surgical treatment objective drawing, and a Jeon's model surgery chart (JMSC) was prepared. Model surgery was performed with Jeon's orthognathic surgery simulator (JOSS) using the JMSC, and an interim wafer was fabricated. Le Fort I osteotomy, bilateral sagittal split ramus osteotomy, and malar augmentation were performed. The patient received lateral cephalometric and posteroanterior cephalometric analysis in postretention for 1 year. The follow-up results were determined to be satisfactory, and skeletal relapse did not occur after 1.5 years of surgery. When maxillary and mandibular models are considered as rigid bodies, and their state of motion is described in a quantitative manner based on 6 DOF, sharing of exact information on locational movement in 3-dimensional space is possible. The use of JMSC and JOSS will actualize accurate communication and performance of model surgery among clinicians based on objective measurements. PMID:23503161

  16. Interaction of the human N-Ras protein with lipid raft model membranes of varying degrees of complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Alexander; Nikolaus, Jörg; Weise, Katrin; Triola, Gemma; Waldmann, Herbert; Winter, Roland; Herrmann, Andreas; Huster, Daniel

    2014-07-01

    Ternary lipid mixtures composed of cholesterol, saturated (frequently with sphingosine backbone), and unsaturated phospholipids show stable phase separation and are often used as model systems of lipid rafts. Yet, their ability to reproduce raft properties and function is still debated. We investigated the properties and functional aspects of three lipid raft model systems of varying degrees of biological relevance--PSM/POPC/Chol, DPPC/POPC/Chol, and DPPC/DOPC/Chol--using 2H solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and atomic force microscopy. While some minor differences were observed, the general behavior and properties of all three model mixtures were similar to previously investigated influenza envelope lipid membranes, which closely mimic the lipid composition of biological membranes. For the investigation of the functional aspects, we employed the human N-Ras protein, which is posttranslationally modified by two lipid modifications that anchor the protein to the membrane. It was previously shown that N-Ras preferentially resides in liquid-disordered domains and exhibits a time-dependent accumulation in the domain boundaries of influenza envelope lipid membranes. For all three model mixtures, we observed the same membrane partitioning behavior for N-Ras. Therefore, we conclude that even relatively simple models of raft membranes are able to reproduce many of their specific properties and functions.

  17. Same-Day Surgery Preparation: Reduction of Pediatric Patient Arousal and Distress through Participant Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, Jan; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Children (n=26) were exposed to one of three surgery preparatory conditions: participant modeling alone, participant modeling with mother, and standard procedure control. Children exposed to modeling alone had significant reductions in physiological arousal after treatment compared to other groups. Both modeling groups exhibited significantly…

  18. Chlorine dioxide and chlorhexidine mouthrinses compared in a 3-day plaque accumulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paraskevas, S.; Rosema, N.A.M.; Versteeg, P.; van der Velden, U.; van der Weijden, G.A.

    2008-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the inhibiting effect of a chlorine dioxide mouthrinse as opposed to a mouthrinse containing chlorhexidine (0.20%) during 3 days of plaque accumulation. Methods: At baseline, all participants (N = 77) received a professional prophylaxis and were r

  19. The present-day climate of Greenland : a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, J.

    2010-01-01

    Present-day climate of Greenland Over the past 20 years, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has warmed. This temperature increase can be explained by an increase in downwelling longwave radiation due to a warmer overlying atmosphere. These temperature changes are strongly correlated to changes in the la

  20. Chlorine dioxide and chlorhexidine mouthrinses compared in a 3-day plaque accumulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paraskevas, S.; Rosema, N.A.M.; Versteeg, P.; van der Velden, U.; van der Weijden, G.A.

    2008-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the inhibiting effect of a chlorine dioxide mouthrinse as opposed to a mouthrinse containing chlorhexidine (0.20%) during 3 days of plaque accumulation. Methods: At baseline, all participants (N = 77) received a professional prophylaxis and were

  1. Operant conditioning of a multiple degree-of-freedom brain-machine interface in a primate model of amputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramanian, Karthikeyan; Southerland, Joshua; Vaidya, Mukta; Qian, Kai; Eleryan, Ahmed; Fagg, Andrew H; Sluzky, Marc; Oweiss, Karim; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas

    2013-01-01

    Operant conditioning with biofeedback has been shown to be an effective method to modify neural activity to generate goal-directed actions in a brain-machine interface. It is particularly useful when neural activity cannot be mathematically mapped to motor actions of the actual body such as in the case of amputation. Here, we implement an operant conditioning approach with visual feedback in which an amputated monkey is trained to control a multiple degree-of-freedom robot to perform a reach-to-grasp behavior. A key innovation is that each controlled dimension represents a behaviorally relevant synergy among a set of joint degrees-of-freedom. We present a number of behavioral metrics by which to assess improvements in BMI control with exposure to the system. The use of non-human primates with chronic amputation is arguably the most clinically-relevant model of human amputation that could have direct implications for developing a neural prosthesis to treat humans with missing upper limbs.

  2. Measurements and Modeling of III-V Solar Cells at High Temperatures up to 400 degrees C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perl, Emmett E.; Simon, John; Geisz, John F.; Lee, Minjoo Larry; Friedman, Daniel J.; Steiner, Myles A.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we study the performance of 2.0 eV Al0.12Ga0.39In0.49P and 1.4 eV GaAs solar cells over a temperature range of 25-400 degrees C. The temperature-dependent J01 and J02 dark currents are extracted by fitting current-voltage measurements to a two-diode model. We find that the intrinsic carrier concentration ni dominates the temperature dependence of the dark currents, open-circuit voltage, and cell efficiency. To study the impact of temperature on the photocurrent and bandgap of the solar cells, we measure the quantum efficiency and illuminated current-voltage characteristics of the devices up to 400 degrees C. As the temperature is increased, we observe no degradation to the internal quantum efficiency and a decrease in the bandgap. These two factors drive an increase in the short-circuit current density at high temperatures. Finally, we measure the devices at concentrations ranging from ~30 to 1500 suns and observe n = 1 recombination characteristics across the entire temperature range. These findings should be a valuable guide to the design of any system that requires high-temperature solar cell operation.

  3. Extended ARMA models for estimating price developments on day-ahead electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swider, Derk J. [Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Hessbruehlstr. 49a, 70565 Stuttgart (Germany); Weber, Christoph [University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitaetsstr. 12, 45117 Essen (Germany)

    2007-04-15

    In this paper extended models for estimating price developments on electricity markets are presented. The models consider deviations from the normality hypothesis of the prices. Based on an ARMA model combination with GARCH, Gaussian-mixture and switching-regime approaches are comparatively discussed. The comparison is based on historic electricity prices of the spot and two reserve markets in Germany. It is shown that the proposed extended models lead to significantly improved representations of the considered stochastic price processes. It is inferred that these models may be preferred for estimating price developments on electricity markets. (author)

  4. Oligodendrogenesis and neurogenesis in remyelination in the cuprizone model of multiple sclerosis: correlation with the degree of lesion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pishchelko, A.; Khodanovich, M.; Pan, E.; Glazacheva, V.; Akulov, A.; Yarnykh, V.

    2017-08-01

    In this research, a cuprizone model of multiple sclerosis (MS) was used to study oligodendrogenesis and neurogenesis in remyelination. It has been shown that, with the administration of cuprizone, the amount of myelin in a number of structures of white and gray matter and the level of neurogenesis decrease, while the level of oligodendrogenesis increases. The withdrawal of cuprizone leads to the restoration of myelin content, the reduction of the excessive production of oligodendrocytes and to the restoration of the number of neurons to control values. The negative correlation between the number of oligodendrocyte precursors (OPCs) and the degree of demyelination of the corpus callosum indicates migration of OLG precursors from the subventricular zone (SVZ) to the structure during demyelination.

  5. Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

    2016-11-01

    Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

  6. The interactive effect of personality, time of day, and caffeine: a test of the arousal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revelle, W; Humphreys, M S; Simon, L; Gilliland, K

    1980-03-01

    The personality dimension of introversion/extraversion is one of the few personality dimensions that can be reliably identified from study to study and investigator to investigator. The importance of this demension within personality theory is due both to the stability of the trait and the influential theory of H. J. Eysenck. The basic assumption in Eysenck's theory of introversion/extraversion is that the personality differences between introverts and extraverts reflect some basic difference in the resting level of cortical arousal or activation. Assuming that there is a curvilinear relationship (an inverted U) between levels of stress and performance leads to a test of this arousal theory. That is, moderate increases in stress should hinder the performance of introverts who are presumably already highly aroused. However, the same moderate increase in stress might help the performance of the presumably underaroused extraverts. Revelle, Amaral, and Turriff reported that the administration of moderate doses of caffeine hindered the performance of introverts and helped the performance of extraverts on a cognitive task similar to the verbal test of the Graduate Record Examination. Assuming that caffeine increases arousal, this interaction between introversion/extraversion and drug condition supports Eysenck's theory. This interaction was explored in a series of experiments designed to replicate, extend, and test the generality of the original finding. The interaction between personality and drug condition was replicated and extended to additional cognitive performance tasks. However, these interactions were affected by time of day and stage of practice, and the subscales of introversion/extraversion, impulsivity, and sociability, were differentially affected. In the morning of the first day, low impulsives were hindered and high impulsives helped by caffeine. This pattern reversed in the evening of the first day, and it reversed again in the evening of Day 2. We

  7. GLGM-3: A Degree-ISO Lunar Gravity Model from the Historical Tracking Data of NASA Moon Orbiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazarico, E.; Lemoine, F. G.; Han, Shin-Chan; Smith, D. E.

    2010-01-01

    In preparation for the radio science experiment of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) mission, we analyzed the available radio tracking data of previous NASA lunar orbiters. Our goal was to use these historical observations in combination with the new low-altitude data to be obtained by LRO. We performed Precision Orbit Determination on trajectory arcs from Lunar Orbiter 1 in 1966 to Lunar Prospector in 1998, using the GEODYN II program developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. We then created a set of normal equations and solved for the coefficients of a spherical harmonics expansion of the lunar gravity potential up to degree and order 150. The GLGM-3 solution obtained with a global Kaula constraint (2.5 x 10(exp -4)/sq l) shows good agreement with model LP150Q from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, especially over the nearside. The levels of data fit with both gravity models are very similar (Doppler RMS of approx.0.2 and approx. 1-2 mm/s in the nominal and extended phases, respectiVely). Orbit overlaps and uncertainties estimated from the covariance matrix also agree well. GLGM-3 shows better correlation with lunar topography and admittance over the nearside at high degrees of expansion (l > 100), particularly near the poles. We also present three companion solutions, obtained with the same data set but using alternate inversion strategies that modify the power law constraint and expectation of the individual spherical harmonics coefficients. We give a detailed discussion of the performance of this family of gravity field solutions in terms of observation fit, orbit quality, and geophysical consistency.

  8. GLGM-3: A Degree-ISO Lunar Gravity Model from the Historical Tracking Data of NASA Moon Orbiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazarico, E.; Lemoine, F. G.; Han, Shin-Chan; Smith, D. E.

    2010-01-01

    In preparation for the radio science experiment of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) mission, we analyzed the available radio tracking data of previous NASA lunar orbiters. Our goal was to use these historical observations in combination with the new low-altitude data to be obtained by LRO. We performed Precision Orbit Determination on trajectory arcs from Lunar Orbiter 1 in 1966 to Lunar Prospector in 1998, using the GEODYN II program developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. We then created a set of normal equations and solved for the coefficients of a spherical harmonics expansion of the lunar gravity potential up to degree and order 150. The GLGM-3 solution obtained with a global Kaula constraint (2.5 x 10(exp -4)/sq l) shows good agreement with model LP150Q from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, especially over the nearside. The levels of data fit with both gravity models are very similar (Doppler RMS of approx.0.2 and approx. 1-2 mm/s in the nominal and extended phases, respectiVely). Orbit overlaps and uncertainties estimated from the covariance matrix also agree well. GLGM-3 shows better correlation with lunar topography and admittance over the nearside at high degrees of expansion (l > 100), particularly near the poles. We also present three companion solutions, obtained with the same data set but using alternate inversion strategies that modify the power law constraint and expectation of the individual spherical harmonics coefficients. We give a detailed discussion of the performance of this family of gravity field solutions in terms of observation fit, orbit quality, and geophysical consistency.

  9. May Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王芳

    2009-01-01

    For Teacher: May Day occurs in May 1 and refers to any of several public holidays.In many countries, May Day is synonymous(同义词的)with International Workers' Day, or Labor Day, which celebrates the social and economic achievements(成就)of the labor movement.

  10. Degree of cure-dependent modelling for polymer curing processes at small-strain. Part I: consistent reformulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, M.; Steinmann, P.

    2014-04-01

    A physically-based small strain curing model has been developed and discussed in our previous contribution (Hossain et al. in Comput Mech 43:769-779, 2009a) which was extended later for finite strain elasticity and viscoelasticity including shrinkage in Hossain et al. (Comput Mech 44(5):621-630, 2009b) and in Hossain et al. (Comput Mech 46(3):363-375, 2010), respectively. The previously proposed constitutive models for curing processes are based on the temporal evolution of the material parameters, namely the shear modulus and the relaxation time (in the case of viscoelasticity). In the current paper, a thermodynamically consistent small strain constitutive model is formulated that is directly based on the degree of cure, a key parameter in the curing (reaction) kinetics. The new formulation is also in line with the earlier proposed hypoelastic approach. The curing process of polymers is a complex phenomenon involving a series of chemical reactions which transform a viscoelastic fluid into a viscoelastic solid during which the temperature, the chemistry and the mechanics are coupled. Part I of this work will deal with an isothermal viscoelastic formulation including shrinkage effects whereas the following Part II will give emphasis on the thermomechanical coupled approach. Some representative numerical examples conclude the paper and show the capability of the newly proposed constitutive formulation to capture major phenomena observed during the curing processes of polymers.

  11. May Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王芳

    2009-01-01

    For Teachers: May Day occurs on May 1 and refers to any of several public holidays. In many coun- tries, May Day is synonymous (同义词的) with International Workers' Day, or Labor Day, which celebrates the social and economic achievements (成就) of the labor movement. As a day of celebration, the holiday has an- cient origins (起源), and it can relate to many customs that have survived into modem times.

  12. The plaque inhibitory effect of a CPC mouthrinse in a 3-day plaque accumulation model - a cross-over study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Versteeg, P.A.; Rosema, N.A.M.; Hoenderdos, N.L.; Slot, D.E.; van der Weijden, G.A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective:  To test the plaque inhibitory effect of an experimental 0.07% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) mouthrinse in a 3-day plaque accumulation model in a cross-over design. Material and Methods:  A total of 30 subjects (non-dental students), ≥18 years of age, were randomly assigned to use one of

  13. Rosalie Wolf Memorial Lecture: A logic model to measure the impacts of World Elder Abuse Awareness Day.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Karen

    2016-01-01

    This commentary discusses the need to evaluate the impact of World Elder Abuse Awareness Day activities, the elder abuse field's most sustained public awareness initiative. A logic model is proposed with measures for short-term, medium-term, and long-term outcomes for community-based programs.

  14. The Relationship among Health Education Systems, Inc. Progression and Exit Examination Scores, Day or Evening Enrollment, Final Grade Point Average and NCLEX-RN® Success in Associate Degree Nursing Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnwell-Sanders, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Graduates of associate degree (AD) nursing programs form the largest segment of first-time National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN®) test takers, yet also experience the highest rate of NCLEX-RN® failures. NCLEX-RN® failure delays entry into the profession, adding an emotional and financial toll to the unsuccessful…

  15. Present-day 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin, Northern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turrini, C.; Lacombe, O.; Roure, F.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin (Northern Italy) was built by integrating the dataset available from the public domain (DEM, wells, isobath-maps, cross-sections, outcrop-trends).The model shows the complex foredeep-foreland architecture across the basin, from the Moho level to the topog

  16. Present-day 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin, Northern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turrini, C.; Lacombe, O.; Roure, F.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin (Northern Italy) was built by integrating the dataset available from the public domain (DEM, wells, isobath-maps, cross-sections, outcrop-trends).The model shows the complex foredeep-foreland architecture across the basin, from the Moho level to the

  17. Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Modeling for 3-15 Day Numerical Prediction: A Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-06-01

    averaging tends to smooth temporal variability, the spatially averaged MLD still shallows fairly abruptly, indicating that the transition occurs almost...least two polar orbiting satellites to give adequate temporal as well as spatial resolution. Horizontal resolution of the SST fields needs only be...atmospheric model a long term simulation should be run to define the model’s clima - tology. Climatological SST values should be used in these tests

  18. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Zhongfu; Zhang, Jinliang; Xu, Jun [North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Wang, Jianhui [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

    2010-11-15

    This paper proposes a novel price forecasting method based on wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models. By wavelet transform, the historical price series is decomposed and reconstructed into one approximation series and some detail series. Then each subseries can be separately predicted by a suitable time series model. The final forecast is obtained by composing the forecasted results of each subseries. This proposed method is examined on Spanish and PJM electricity markets and compared with some other forecasting methods. (author)

  19. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2017-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  20. Application of a Gradient Descent Continuous Actor-Critic Algorithm for Double-Side Day-Ahead Electricity Market Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available An important goal of China’s electric power system reform is to create a double-side day-ahead wholesale electricity market in the future, where the suppliers (represented by GenCOs and demanders (represented by DisCOs compete simultaneously with each other in one market. Therefore, modeling and simulating the dynamic bidding process and the equilibrium in the double-side day-ahead electricity market scientifically is not only important to some developed countries, but also to China to provide a bidding decision-making tool to help GenCOs and DisCOs obtain more profits in market competition. Meanwhile, it can also provide an economic analysis tool to help government officials design the proper market mechanisms and policies. The traditional dynamic game model and table-based reinforcement learning algorithm have already been employed in the day-ahead electricity market modeling. However, those models are based on some assumptions, such as taking the probability distribution function of market clearing price (MCP and each rival’s bidding strategy as common knowledge (in dynamic game market models, and assuming the discrete state and action sets of every agent (in table-based reinforcement learning market models, which are no longer applicable in a realistic situation. In this paper, a modified reinforcement learning method, called gradient descent continuous Actor-Critic (GDCAC algorithm was employed in the double-side day-ahead electricity market modeling and simulation. This algorithm can not only get rid of the abovementioned unrealistic assumptions, but also cope with the Markov decision-making process with continuous state and action sets just like the real electricity market. Meanwhile, the time complexity of our proposed model is only O(n. The simulation result of employing the proposed model in the double-side day-ahead electricity market shows the superiority of our approach in terms of participant’s profit or social welfare

  1. A damage model of Zr {alpha} under cyclic loading at 200 degree Celsius; Modelisation de l`endommagement du Zr {alpha} sous chargement cyclique a 200 deg C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogel, C.; Drubay, B. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Dept. de Mecanique et de Technologie; Cailletaud, G. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 75 - Paris (France); Mottot, M. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Direction des Technologies Avancees

    1994-12-31

    A damage model for anticipating zirconium {alpha} test-piece rupture under cyclic solicitations at 200 degree Celsius is presented. The article is divided into three parts : an experimental approach, the damage model presentation and the application of this model. (O.L.). 10 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. Predicting 30-day Hospital Readmission with Publicly Available Administrative Database. A Conditional Logistic Regression Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, K; Lou, Z; Zhou, J; Ballester, N; Kong, N; Parikh, P

    2015-01-01

    This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Hospital readmissions raise healthcare costs and cause significant distress to providers and patients. It is, therefore, of great interest to healthcare organizations to predict what patients are at risk to be readmitted to their hospitals. However, current logistic regression based risk prediction models have limited prediction power when applied to hospital administrative data. Meanwhile, although decision trees and random forests have been applied, they tend to be too complex to understand among the hospital practitioners. Explore the use of conditional logistic regression to increase the prediction accuracy. We analyzed an HCUP statewide inpatient discharge record dataset, which includes patient demographics, clinical and care utilization data from California. We extracted records of heart failure Medicare beneficiaries who had inpatient experience during an 11-month period. We corrected the data imbalance issue with under-sampling. In our study, we first applied standard logistic regression and decision tree to obtain influential variables and derive practically meaning decision rules. We then stratified the original data set accordingly and applied logistic regression on each data stratum. We further explored the effect of interacting variables in the logistic regression modeling. We conducted cross validation to assess the overall prediction performance of conditional logistic regression (CLR) and compared it with standard classification models. The developed CLR models outperformed several standard classification models (e.g., straightforward logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine). For example, the best CLR model improved the classification accuracy by nearly 20% over the straightforward logistic regression model. Furthermore, the developed CLR models tend to achieve better sensitivity of

  3. Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qing; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-01-01

    As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations. PMID:25061614

  4. Day-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a novel morphological component analysis based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qing; He, Kaijian; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-01-01

    As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

  5. Modelling the nebular emission from primeval to present-day star-forming galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Gutkin, Julia; Bruzual, Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    We present a new model of the nebular emission from star-forming galaxies in a wide range of chemical compositions, appropriate to interpret observations of galaxies at all cosmic epochs. The model relies on the combination of state-of-the-art stellar population synthesis and photoionization codes to describe the ensemble of HII regions and the diffuse gas ionized by young stars in a galaxy. A main feature of this model is the self-consistent yet versatile treatment of element abundances and depletion onto dust grains, which allows one to relate the observed nebular emission from a galaxy to both gas-phase and dust-phase metal enrichment. We show that this model can account for the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical emission-line properties of galaxies at different redshifts and find that ultraviolet emission lines are more sensitive than optical ones to parameters such as C/O abundance ratio, hydrogen gas density, dust-to-metal mass ratio and upper cutoff of the stellar initial mass function. We also find th...

  6. Isolated galaxies in hierarchical galaxy formation models - present-day properties and environmental histories

    CERN Document Server

    Hirschmann, Michaela; Iovino, Angela; Cucciati, Olga

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we have carried out a detailed, statistical analysis of isolated model galaxies, taking advantage of publicly available hierarchical galaxy formation models. To select isolated galaxies, we employ 2D methods widely used in the observational literature, as well as a more stringent 3D isolation criterion that uses the full 3D-real space information. In qualitative agreement with observational results, isolated model galaxies have larger fractions of late-type, star forming galaxies with respect to randomly selected samples of galaxies with the same mass distribution. We also find that the samples of isolated model galaxies typically contain a fraction of less than 15 per cent of satellite galaxies, that reside at the outskirts of their parent haloes where the galaxy number density is low. Projection effects cause a contamination of 2D samples of about 18 per cent, while we estimate a typical completeness of 65 per cent. Irrespectively of the isolation criteria, roughly 45 per cent of isolated gal...

  7. An improved OpenSim gait model with multiple degrees of freedom knee joint and knee ligaments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hang; Bloswick, Donald; Merryweather, Andrew

    2015-08-01

    Musculoskeletal models are widely used to investigate joint kinematics and predict muscle force during gait. However, the knee is usually simplified as a one degree of freedom joint and knee ligaments are neglected. The aim of this study was to develop an OpenSim gait model with enhanced knee structures. The knee joint in this study included three rotations and three translations. The three knee rotations and mediolateral translation were independent, with proximodistal and anteroposterior translations occurring as a function of knee flexion/extension. Ten elastic elements described the geometrical and mechanical properties of the anterior and posterior cruciate ligaments (ACL and PCL), and the medial and lateral collateral ligaments (MCL and LCL). The three independent knee rotations were evaluated using OpenSim to observe ligament function. The results showed that the anterior and posterior bundles of ACL and PCL (aACL, pACL and aPCL, pPCL) intersected during knee flexion. The aACL and pACL mainly provided force during knee flexion and adduction, respectively. The aPCL was slack throughout the range of three knee rotations; however, the pPCL was utilised for knee abduction and internal rotation. The LCL was employed for knee adduction and rotation, but was slack beyond 20° of knee flexion. The MCL bundles were mainly used during knee adduction and external rotation. All these results suggest that the functions of knee ligaments in this model approximated the behaviour of the physical knee and the enhanced knee structures can improve the ability to investigate knee joint biomechanics during various gait activities.

  8. A day in the life of fish larvae: modeling foraging and growth using quirks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus B Huebert

    Full Text Available This article introduces "Quirks," a generic, individual-based model synthesizing over 40 years of empirical and theoretical insights into the foraging behavior and growth physiology of marine fish larvae. In Quirks, different types of larvae are defined by a short list of their biological traits, and all foraging and growth processes (including the effects of key environmental factors are modeled following one unified set of mechanistic rules. This approach facilitates ecologically meaningful comparisons between different species and environments. We applied Quirks to model young exogenously feeding larvae of four species: 5.5-mm European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, 7-mm Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, 13-mm Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus, and 7-mm European sprat (Sprattus sprattus. Modeled growth estimates explained the majority of variability among 53 published empirical growth estimates, and displayed very little bias: 0.65% ± 1.2% d(-1 (mean ± standard error. Prey organisms of ∼ 67% the maximum ingestible prey length were optimal for all larval types, in terms of the expected ingestion per encounter. Nevertheless, the foraging rate integrated over all favorable prey sizes was highest when smaller organisms made up >95% of the prey biomass under the assumption of constant normalized size spectrum slopes. The overall effect of turbulence was consistently negative, because its detrimental influence on prey pursuit success exceeded its beneficial influence on prey encounter rate. Model sensitivity to endogenous traits and exogenous environmental factors was measured and is discussed in depth. Quirks is free software and open source code is provided.

  9. Modelling of hybrid scenario: from present-day experiments towards ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litaudon, X.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Artaud, J. F.; Belo, P.; Bizarro, João P. S.; Casper, T.; Citrin, J.; Fable, E.; Ferreira, J.; Garcia, J.; Garzotti, L.; Giruzzi, G.; Hobirk, J.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Imbeaux, F.; Joffrin, E.; Koechl, F.; Liu, F.; Lönnroth, J.; Moreau, D.; Parail, V.; Schneider, M.; Snyder, P. B.; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET-EFDA; the EU-ITM ITER Scenario Modelling Group

    2013-07-01

    The ‘hybrid’ scenario is an attractive operating scenario for ITER since it combines long plasma duration with the reliability of the reference H-mode regime. We review the recent European modelling effort carried out within the Integrated Scenario Modelling group which aims at (i) understanding the underlying physics of the hybrid regime in ASDEX-Upgrade and JET and (ii) extrapolating them towards ITER. JET and ASDEX-Upgrade hybrid scenarios performed under different experimental conditions have been simulated in an interpretative and predictive way in order to address the current profile dynamics and its link with core confinement, the relative importance of magnetic shear, s, and E × B flow shear on the core turbulence, pedestal stability and H-L transition. The correlation of the improved confinement with an increased s/q at outer radii observed in JET and ASDEX-Upgrade discharges is consistent with the predictions based on the GLF23 model applied in the simulations of the ion and electron kinetic profiles. Projections to ITER hybrid scenarios have been carried out focusing on optimization of the heating/current drive schemes to reach and ultimately control the desired plasma equilibrium using ITER actuators. Firstly, access condition to the hybrid-like q-profiles during the current ramp-up phase has been investigated. Secondly, from the interpreted role of the s/q ratio, ITER hybrid scenario flat-top performance has been optimized through tailoring the q-profile shape and pedestal conditions. EPED predictions of pedestal pressure and width have been used as constraints in the interpretative modelling while the core heat transport is predicted by GLF23. Finally, model-based approach for real-time control of advanced tokamak scenarios has been applied to ITER hybrid regime for simultaneous magnetic and kinetic profile control.

  10. Modelling the nebular emission from primeval to present-day star-forming galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutkin, Julia; Charlot, Stéphane; Bruzual, Gustavo

    2016-10-01

    We present a new model of the nebular emission from star-forming galaxies in a wide range of chemical compositions, appropriate to interpret observations of galaxies at all cosmic epochs. The model relies on the combination of state-of-the-art stellar population synthesis and photoionization codes to describe the ensemble of H II regions and the diffuse gas ionized by young stars in a galaxy. A main feature of this model is the self-consistent yet versatile treatment of element abundances and depletion on to dust grains, which allows one to relate the observed nebular emission from a galaxy to both gas-phase and dust-phase metal enrichment. We show that this model can account for the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical emission-line properties of galaxies at different redshifts and find that ultraviolet emission lines are more sensitive than optical ones to parameters such as C/O abundance ratio, hydrogen gas density, dust-to-metal mass ratio and upper cut-off of the stellar initial mass function. We also find that, for gas-phase metallicities around solar to slightly subsolar, widely used formulae to constrain oxygen ionic fractions and the C/O ratio from ultraviolet and optical emission-line luminosities are reasonable faithful. However, the recipes break down at non-solar metallicities, making them inappropriate to study chemically young galaxies. In such cases, a fully self-consistent model of the kind presented in this paper is required to interpret the observed nebular emission.

  11. Possible damping model of the 6 year oscillation signal in length of day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Pengshuo; Liu, Genyou; Hu, Xiaogang; Sun, Yafei; Li, Honglei

    2017-04-01

    A significant 6 year oscillation signal exists in the observed length-of-day (LOD) series. We recently used normal Morlet wavelet transform method to recover this oscillation signal. The result indicates that the amplitude of this oscillation has been decreasing for the over past 50 years. Using the simulation analysis, this study further demonstrates that the above result is reliable. However, the geophysical mechanism responsible for this decrease is less clear. Here, we develop a temporal-decaying function to characterize the secular attenuation of the oscillation signal. Using the least squared method, we obtain the corresponding quality factor Q value (51.6 ± 0.4) and the damping relaxation time τ (99.2 ± 0.8 years). We find the attenuation of the 6 year oscillation signal and its Q value can be explained by previous theoretical prediction, providing constraints on the related physical parameters of the lowermost mantle. The dissipative effect of electromagnetic coupling at the core-mantle boundary is likely to be a primary factor to cause the decaying of the 6 year oscillation signal.

  12. Simulating modern-day cropland and pasture burning in an Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena; Magi, Brian; Pacala, Steve

    2015-04-01

    Throughout the Holocene, humans have extended our influence across a larger and larger fraction of ecosystems, even creating some new ones in the process. Herds of livestock grazing either native vegetation (rangeland) or specially planted species (pasture) have modified huge areas of land. We have even developed new plant species and cultivated them as crops. The extent of our ecosystem modification intensified dramatically with the advent of industrialized agriculture, to the point where cropland and pasture (which will henceforth encompass rangeland as well) now cover over a third of the Earth's land area. One way we have altered the terrestrial biosphere is by intentionally and unintentionally altering fire's frequency, intensity, and seasonal timing. This is especially true for agricultural ecosystems. Because their maintenance and use require a level of human control, cropland and pasture often experience fire regimes substantially different from those of the ecosystems they replaced or what would occur in the absence of active fire management. For example, farmers might burn to prepare land for planting or to dispose of crop residues, and pastoralists often use fire to prevent encroachment of unpalatable woody plants. Due to the vast global extent of agriculture, and considering the myriad ways fire affects the Earth system, it is critical that we understand (a) the ways people manage fire on cropland and pasture and (b) the effects of this management on the Earth system. Earth system models are an ideal tool for examining this kind of question. By simulating the processes within and interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, land, and terrestrial ecosystems, Earth system models allow phenomena such as fire to be examined in their global context. However, while the past fifteen years have seen great progress in the simulation of vegetation fire within Earth system models, the direct human influence via cropland and pasture management burning has been mostly

  13. Body wave travel times and amplitudes for present-day seismic model of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raevskiy, Sergey; Gudkova, Tamara

    At the moment Martian interior structure models are constrained by the satellite observational data (the mass, the moment of inertia factor, the Love number k _{2}) (Konopliv et al., 2011) and high pressure experimental data (Bertka and Fei, 1997). Seismological observations could provide unparalleled capability for studying Martian interiors. Future missions include seismic experiments on Mars (Lognonné et al., 2012). The main instrument for these seismic experiments is a broadband seismometer (Robert et al., 2012). When seismic measurements are not yet available, physically consistent interior models, characterized by properties of relevant minerals, make possible to study of the seismic response of the planet. \\To estimate travel times for direct P, S, core reflected PcP, ScS and core refracted PKP body waves as a function of epicentral distance and hypocentral depth, as well as their amplitudes at the surface for a given marsquake, software product was developed in MatLab, as it encompasses many plotting routines that plot resulting travel times and ray paths. The computational results have been compared with the program TTBox (Knapmeyer, 2004). The code computes seismic ray paths and travel times for a one-dimentional spherical interior model (density and seismic velocities are functions of a radius only). Calculations of travel times tables for direct P, S, core reflected PcP, ScS and core refracted PKP waves and their amplitudes are carried out for a trial seismic model of Mars M14_3 from (Zharkov et al., 2009): the core radius is 1800 km, the thickness of the crust is 50 km. Direct and core reflected P and S waves are recorded to a maximum epicentral distance equal to about 100(°) , and PKP arrivals can be detected for epicental distances larger than 150(°) . The shadow zone is getting wider in comparison with previous results (Knapmeyer, 2010), as the liquid core radius of the seismic model under consideration is larger. Based on the estimates of

  14. FE modeling of present day tectonic stress along the San Andreas Fault zone

    OpenAIRE

    Koirala, Matrika Prasad; Hauashi, Daigoro; 林, 大五郎

    2009-01-01

    F E modeling under plane stress condition is used to analyze the state of stress in and around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) System taking whole area of California. In this study we mainly focus on the state of stress at the general seismogenic depth of 12 km, imposing elastic rheology. The purpose of the present study is to simulate the regional stress field, displacement vectors and failures. Stress perturbation due to major fault, its geometry and major branches are analyzed. Depthwise varia...

  15. A model study of present-day Hall-effect circulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placke, B. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Bosco, S. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); DiVincenzo, D.P. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); Peter Gruenberg Institute, Theoretical Nanoelectronics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, Juelich (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    Stimulated by the recent implementation of a three-port Hall-effect microwave circulator of Mahoney et al. (MEA), we present model studies of the performance of this device. Our calculations are based on the capacitive-coupling model of Viola and DiVincenzo (VD). Based on conductance data from a typical Hall-bar device obtained from a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) in a magnetic field, we numerically solve the coupled field-circuit equations to calculate the expected performance of the circulator, as determined by the S parameters of the device when coupled to 50Ω ports, as a function of frequency and magnetic field. Above magnetic fields of 1.5 T, for which a typical 2DEG enters the quantum Hall regime (corresponding to a Landau-level filling fraction ν of 20), the Hall angle θ{sub H} = tan{sup -1} σ{sub xy}/σ{sub xx} always remains close to 90 , and the S parameters are close to the analytic predictions of VD for θ{sub H} = π/2. As anticipated by VD, MEA find the device to have rather high (kΩ) impedance, and thus to be extremely mismatched to 50Ω, requiring the use of impedance matching. We incorporate the lumped matching circuits of MEA in our modeling and confirm that they can produce excellent circulation, although confined to a very small bandwidth. We predict that this bandwidth is significantly improved by working at lower magnetic field when the Landau index is high, e.g. ν = 20, and the impedance mismatch is correspondingly less extreme. Our modeling also confirms the observation of MEA that parasitic port-to-port capacitance can produce very interesting countercirculation effects. (orig.)

  16. Human placentation from nidation to 5 weeks of gestation. Part II: Tools to model the crucial first days

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    James, J L; Carter, Anthony Michael; Chamley, L W

    2012-01-01

    stages of human implantation and placentation from nidation to 5 weeks of gestation. The field has expanded rapidly in recent years due to the generation of human embryonic stem cell lines and the ability of some scientists to culture human blastocysts. These models have enabled researchers to begin...... trophoblast stem cell, will significantly enhance our ability to define the molecular and structural events occurring during human implantation and early placental development.......Human pregnancy is unusual with respect to monthly spontaneous decidualisation as well as the degree of placental invasion and interaction with the decidualised endometrial stroma. This review covers in vivo animal models and in vitro cell culture models that have been used to study the earliest...

  17. Modeling Greenland ice sheet present-day and near-future runoff contribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peano, Daniele; Colleoni, Florence; Masina, Simona

    2014-05-01

    The last IPCC report [AR5, IPCC] has shown an increasing contribution from Greenland melting to global sea-level over the last decade, increasing from 0.09 mm/year (period 1992-2001) to 0.59 mm/year (period 2002-2011). Given its strategic location, i.e. close to the main North Atlantic ocean convection sites, it is therefore of importance to better assess ice sheet melting and its impact on regional ocean processes. So far, runoff estimate from ice sheet has been poorly constrained (e.g. [Hanna et al., 2005], [Hanna et al., 2008]) and most of the time the few estimates comes from regional atmospheric models or general circulation models (e.g. [Edwards et al., 2013], [Fettweis et al., 2013]). Here, we present the results from the implementation of a routing scheme into the thermo-mechanical ice sheet-ice shelves model GRISLI [Ritz et al, 2001], applied to the Greenland ice sheet mass evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries. The routing scheme is based on the "multiple flow direction" developed by [Quinn et al., 1991]. We further improved this scheme by considering topographic depressions as possible "lakes" to be filled by meltwater. In this way, when a depression is filled, only the extra water is routed towards the Greenland coasts. This allow us to obtain an estimate of the total amount of freshwater reaching the ocean at each time step of the model integration, as well as a time-varying spatial distribution of the runoff along the coasts of Greenland. This routing scheme is applied in routing both surface and basal meltwater. Surface meltwater is computed by means of a PDD method [Fausto et al., 2007] on which only a fraction is considered for routing while the basal melting rate is part of the heat balance at the ice-bed interface. Runoff is simulated on a 5km x 5km horizontal grid and validation is performed over the 20th century using mean annual total precipitation and air temperature at 2 meters from Era-Interim reanalysis [Dee et al., 2011]. Near future

  18. On Turing Degrees of Walrasian Models and a General Impossibility Result in the Theory of Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-05-01

    Strategies," in Contributions to the Theory of Games, III, Annals of Mathematics Studies No. 39, Princeton, pp. 147-157. Rice, H.G. [1954], "Recursive...Shoenfield, J. [1971], Degrees of Unsolvability, North-Holland, Elsevier, New York. Shoefield, J. [1959], "On Degrees of Unsolvability," Annals of Mathematics 69

  19. Phase transitions in a frustrated biquadratic Heisenberg model with coupled orbital degrees of freedom for iron-based superconductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, W. Z.; Qin, M. H.; Dong, S.; Li, X. G.; Liu, J.-M.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we study a biquadratic Heisenberg model with coupled orbital degrees of freedom by using a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the phase transitions in iron-based superconductors. The antiferroquadrupolar state, which may be related to the magnetism of FeSe [R. Yu and Q. Si, Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 116401 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.115.116401], is stabilized by the anisotropic biquadratic interaction induced by a ferro-orbital-ordered state. It is revealed that the orbital and nematic transitions occur at the same temperature for all the cases, supporting the mechanism of the orbital-driven nematicity as revealed in most recent experiments [S. H. Baek, D. V. Efremov, J. M. Ok, J. S. Kim, J. van den Brink, and B. Büchner, Nat. Mater. 14, 210 (2015), 10.1038/nmat4138]. In addition, it is suggested that the orbital interaction may lead to the separation of the structural and magnetic phase transitions, as observed in many families of iron pnictides.

  20. Dynamic modeling of a 6-degree-of-freedom Stewart platform driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiang MENG; Tao ZHANG; Jing-feng HE; Jing-yan SONG; Jun-wei HAN

    2010-01-01

    For an electrical six-degree-of-freedom Stewart platform,it is difficult to compute the equivalent inertia of each motor in real time,as the inertia is time-varying.In this study,an analysis using Kane's equation is undertaken of the driven torque of the movements of motor systems(including motor friction,movements of motor systems along with the actuators,rotation around axis of rotors and snails),as well as driven torque of the platform and actuators.The electromagnetic torque was calculated according to vector-controlled permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM)dynamics.By equalizing the driven torque and electromagnetic torque,a model was established.This method,taking into consideration the influence of counter electromotive force(EMF)and motor friction,could be applied to the real-time dynamic control of the platform,through which the calculation of the time-varying equivalent inertia is avoided.Finally,simulations with typically desired trajectory inputs are presented and the performance of the Stewart platform is determined,With this approach,the multi-body dynamics of the electrical Stewart platform is better understood.

  1. A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashfaq Ahmad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the operation of a smart grid (SG, day-ahead load forecasting (DLF is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately predict the load of the next day with a fair enough execution time. Our proposed model consists of three modules; the data preparation module, feature selection and the forecast module. The first module makes the historical load curve compatible with the feature selection module. The second module removes redundant and irrelevant features from the input data. The third module, which consists of an artificial neural network (ANN, predicts future load on the basis of selected features. Moreover, the forecast module uses a sigmoid function for activation and a multi-variate auto-regressive model for weight updating during the training process. Simulations are conducted in MATLAB to validate the performance of our newly-proposed DLF model in terms of accuracy and execution time. Results show that our proposed modified feature selection and modified ANN (m(FS + ANN-based model for SGs is able to capture the non-linearity(ies in the history load curve with 97 . 11 % accuracy. Moreover, this accuracy is achieved at the cost of a fair enough execution time, i.e., we have decreased the average execution time of the existing FS + ANN-based model by 38 . 50 % .

  2. Religious Engagement in a Risky Family Model Predicting Health in Older Black and White Seventh-day Adventists

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, Kelly R; Lee, Jerry W.; Haviland, Mark G.; Fraser, Gary E

    2012-01-01

    In a structural equation model, associations among latent variables – Child Poverty, Risky Family exposure, Religious Engagement, Negative Social Interactions, Negative Emotionality, and Perceived Physical Health – were evaluated in 6,753 Black and White adults aged 35–106 years (M = 60.5, SD = 13.0). All participants were members of the Seventh-day Adventist church surveyed in the Biopsychosocial Religion and Health Study (BRHS). Child Poverty was positively associated with both Risky Family...

  3. Evaluating some indicators for identifying mountain waves situations in snow days by means of numerical modeling and continuous data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Jose Luis; Posada, Rafael; Hierro, Rodrigo; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Lopez, Laura; Gascón, Estibaliz

    2013-04-01

    Madrid - Barajas airport is placed at 70 km away from the Central System and snow days and mountains waves are considered as risks days for landing operations. This motivated the study of mesoscale factors affecting this type of situations. The availability of observational data gathered during three consecutives winter campaigns in the Central System along with data from high-resolution numerical models, have allowed the evaluation of the environmental conditions necessary for mountain waves formations in snow days and were characterized from observational data and numerical simulations. By means of Meteosat Second Generation satellite images, lee clouds were observed in 25 days corresponding to the 2008-2011 winter seasons. Six of them, which also presented NW low level flow over the mountain range, were analyzed. Necessary conditions for oscillations as well as vertical wave propagation were studied from radiometer data and MM5 model simulations. From radiometer data the presence of stable environment in the six selected events is confirmed. From MM5 model, dynamic conditions allowing the flow to cross the mountain range were evaluated in three different locations around the mountain range. Simulations of vertical velocity show that MM5 model is able to detect mountain waves. The waves present in the six selected events are examined. Tropospheric were able to forecast energy release associated with the mountain waves. The vertical wavelength presented a high variability due to intense background winds at high tropospheric levels. The average values estimated for λz were between 3 and 12 km. The intrinsic period estimated was around 30 and 12 km. The simulations were able to forecast energy release associated with mountain waves. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the Plan Nacional de I+D of Spain, through the grants CGL2010-15930, Micrometeo IPT-310000-2010-022 and the Junta de Castilla y León through the grant LE220A11-2.

  4. Parametric Modeling of Urban Landscape: Decoding the Brasilia of Lucio Costa from Modernism to Present Days

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Clara Moura

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the case study of the Pilot-Plan of Brasilia, important example of modernist urban design protected as human heritage. Discusses a methodological process to promote visualization of maximum envelops of urban volumes, organized in a set of rules and scripts which structures urban parameters in a logic of volume constructions. Applies City Engine - ESRI facilities to construct and visualize the urban rules. It has the goal to promote characterization, analysis, proposals and simulation of urban parameters in order to support decision making in land use transformation. The research deals with the difficulties of management urban pressure of transformation and the maintenance of urban cultural heritage. The methodology defends the change from authorial urban design to the decoding of collective values and goals. The 3D modeling and dynamic visualization promotes the composition of the whole, which means to work in a relative mode, and not in an absolute sense. Although it had been developed for a particular case study, the protected historical area of Brasilia, it presents methodological processes of how to structure rules of three-dimensional modeling to simulate the maximum constructive authorized by planning legislation (maximum envelopes, so that it can be reapplied in any other situation of definition of parameters in urban master plans and in laws for land use and occupation.

  5. Pre-industrial to Present Day Chemistry Model Simulations: The Role of Different Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. J.; Lamarque, J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Vitt, F.

    2011-12-01

    We will present the results from several CAM-Chem simulations that span 1850-2010. Simulations where one forcing is fixed at 1850 (or 1930) levels are compared against a "base" simulation, where all the forcings evolve through time. The "fixed" simulations respectively hold (1) methane, (2) all surface/aloft emissions, (3) only aerosol emissions, (4) sea surface temperatures/CO2 (i.e. climate) at their 1850 level, and (5) CFCs at their 1930 level. We will examine the sensitivity of the ozone budget and methane lifetime results under these various scenarios. In particular, we will discuss the potential role of complex interactions in defining the tropospheric ozone burden change. We will make use of those results as a basis for the understanding of the spread in fields from the ongoing Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP).

  6. CEMI Days

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-07-01

    CEMI Days are an important channel of engagement between DOE and the manufacturing industry to identify challenges and opportunities for increasing U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. CEMI Days that are held at manufacturing companies’ facilities can include tours of R&D operations or other points of interest determined by the host company.

  7. Dinosaur Day!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Sandra; Baptiste, H. Prentice

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe how they capitalized on their first-grade students' love of dinosaurs by hosting a fun-filled Dinosaur Day in their classroom. On Dinosaur Day, students rotated through four dinosaur-related learning stations that integrated science content with art, language arts, math, and history in a fun and time-efficient…

  8. Exact solutions for social and biological contagion models on mixed directed and undirected, degree-correlated random networks

    CERN Document Server

    Payne, Joshua L; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2011-01-01

    We derive analytic expressions for the probability and expected size of global spreading events starting from a single infected seed for a broad collection of contagion processes acting on random networks with both directed and undirected edges and arbitrary degree-degree correlations. Our work extends previous theoretical developments for the undirected case, and we provide numerical support for our findings by investigating an example class of networks for which we are able to obtain closed-form expressions.

  9. Evaluation of Present-day Aerosols over China Simulated from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, H.; Chang, W.

    2014-12-01

    High concentrations of aerosols over China lead to strong radiative forcing that is important for both regional and global climate. To understand the representation of aerosols in China in current global climate models, we evaluate extensively the simulated present-day aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China from the 12 models that participated in Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), by using ground-based measurements and satellite remote sensing. Ground-based measurements of aerosol concentrations used in this work include those from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Atmosphere Watch Network (CAWNET) and the observed fine-mode aerosol concentrations collected from the literature. The ground-based measurements of AOD in China are taken from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET), the sites with CIMEL sun photometer operated by Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and from Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network (CSHNET). We find that the ACCMIP models generally underestimate concentrations of all major aerosol species in China. On an annual mean basis, the multi-model mean concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon are underestimated by 63%, 73%, 54%, 53%, and 59%, respectively. The multi-model mean AOD values show low biases of 20-40% at studied sites in China. The ACCMIP models can reproduce seasonal variation of nitrate but cannot capture well the seasonal variations of other aerosol species. Our analyses indicate that current global models generally underestimate the role of aerosols in China in climate simulations.

  10. A three-degree-of-freedom parallel manipulator for concentrated solar power towers: Modeling, simulation and design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosal, Ashitava; Shyam, R. B. Ashith

    2016-05-01

    There is an increased thrust to harvest solar energy in India to meet increasing energy requirements and to minimize imported fossil fuels. In a solar power tower system, an array of tracking mirrors or heliostats are used to concentrate the incident solar energy on an elevated stationary receiver and then the thermal energy converted to electricity using a heat engine. The conventional method of tracking are the Azimuth-Elevation (Az-El) or Target-Aligned (T-A) mount. In both the cases, the mirror is rotated about two mutually perpendicular axes and is supported at the center using a pedestal which is fixed to the ground. In this paper, a three degree-of-freedom parallel manipulator, namely the 3-RPS, is proposed for tracking the sun in a solar power tower system. We present modeling, simulation and design of the 3-RPS parallel manipulator and show its advantages over conventional Az-El and T-A mounts. The 3-RPS manipulator consists of three rotary (R), three prismatic (P) and three spherical (S) joints and the mirror assembly is mounted at three points in contrast to the Az-El and T-A mounts. The kinematic equations for sun tracking are derived for the 3-RPS manipulator and from the simulations, we obtain the range of motion of the rotary, prismatic and spherical joints. Since the mirror assembly is mounted at three points, the wind load and self-weight are distributed and as a consequence, the deflections due to loading are smaller than in conventional mounts. It is shown that the weight of the supporting structure is between 15% and 65% less than that of conventional systems. Hence, even though one additional actuator is used, the larger area mirrors can be used and costs can be reduced.

  11. A High-resolution 3D Geodynamical Model of the Present-day India-Asia Collision System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaus, B.; Baumann, T.

    2015-12-01

    We present a high-resolution, 3D geodynamic model of the present-day India-Asia collision system. The model is separated into multiple tectonic blocks, for which we estimate the first order rheological properties and the impact on the dynamics of the collision system. This is done by performing systematic simulations with different rheologies to minimize the misfit to observational constraints such as the GPS-velocity field. The simulations are performed with the parallel staggered grid FD code LaMEM using a numerical resolution of at least 512x512x256 cells to resolve dynamically important shear zones reasonably well. A fundamental part of this study is the reconstruction of the 3D present-day geometry of Tibet and the adjacent regions. Our interpretations of crust and mantle lithosphere geometry are jointly based on a globally available shear wave tomography (Schaeffer and Lebedev, 2013) and the Crust 1.0 model (Laske et al. http://igppweb.ucsd.edu/~gabi/crust1.html). We regionally refined and modified our interpretations based on seismicity distributions and focal mechanisms and incorporated regional receiver function studies to improve the accuracy of the Moho in particular. Results suggest that we can identify at least one "best-fit" solution in terms of rheological model properties that reproduces the observed velocity field reasonably well, including the strong rotation of the GPS velocity around the eastern syntax of the Himalaya. We also present model co-variances to illustrate the trade-offs between the rheological model parameters, their respective uncertainties, and the model fit. Schaeffer, A.J., Lebedev, S., 2013. Global shear speed structure of the upper mantle and transition zone. Geophysical Journal International 194, 417-449. doi:10.1093/gji/ggt095

  12. Prognostic Abilities and Quality Assessment of Models for the Prediction of 90-Day Mortality in Liver Transplant Waiting List Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthold, Marc; Kaltenborn, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Background Model of end-stage liver disease (MELD)-score and diverse variants are widely used for prognosis on liver transplant waiting-lists. Methods 818 consecutive patients on the liver transplant waiting-list included to calculate the MELD, MESO Index, MELD-Na, UKELD, iMELD, refitMELD, refitMELD-Na, upMELD and PELD-scores. Prognostic abilities for 90-day mortality were investigated applying Receiver-operating-characteristic-curve analysis. Independent risk factors for 90-day mortality were identified with multivariable binary logistic regression modelling. Methodological quality of the underlying development studies was assessed with a systematic assessment tool. Results 74 patients (9%) died on the liver transplant waiting list within 90 days after listing. All but one scores, refitMELD-Na, had acceptable prognostic performance with areas under the ROC-curves (AUROCs)>0.700. The iMELD performed best (AUROC = 0.798). In pediatric cases, the PELD-score just failed to reach the acceptable threshold with an AUROC = 0.699. All scores reached a mean quality score of 72.3%. Highest quality scores could be achieved by the UKELD and PELD-scores. Studies specifically lack statistical validity and model evaluation. Conclusions Inferior quality assessment of prognostic models does not necessarily imply inferior prognostic abilities. The iMELD might be a more reliable tool representing urgency of transplantation than the MELD-score. PELD-score is assumedly not accurate enough to allow graft allocation decision in pediatric liver transplantation. PMID:28129338

  13. Validation of CRASH Model in Prediction of 14-day Mortality and 6-month Unfavorable Outcome of Head Trauma Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Behrooz; Amanat, Mahnaz; Baratloo, Alireza; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Rahmati, Farhad; Motamedi, Maryam; Safari, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: To date, many prognostic models have been proposed to predict the outcome of patients with traumatic brain injuries. External validation of these models in different populations is of great importance for their generalization. The present study was designed, aiming to determine the value of CRASH prognostic model in prediction of 14-day mortality (14-DM) and 6-month unfavorable outcome (6-MUO) of patients with traumatic brain injury. Methods: In the present prospective diagnostic test study, calibration and discrimination of CRASH model were evaluated in head trauma patients referred to the emergency department. Variables required for calculating CRASH expected risks (ER), and observed 14-DM and 6-MUO were gathered. Then ER of 14-DM and 6-MUO were calculated. The patients were followed for 6 months and their 14-DM and 6-MUO were recorded. Finally, the correlation of CRASH ER and the observed outcome of the patients was evaluated. The data were analyzed using STATA version 11.0. Results: In this study, 323 patients with the mean age of 34.0 ± 19.4 years were evaluated (87.3% male). Calibration of the basic and CT models in prediction of 14-day and 6-month outcome were in the desirable range (P < 0.05). Area under the curve in the basic model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.96) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95), respectively. In addition, area under the curve in the CT model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.96), respectively. There was no significant difference between the discriminations of the two models in prediction of 14-DM (p = 0.11) and 6-MUO (p = 0.1). Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that CRASH prediction model has proper discrimination and calibration in predicting 14-DM and 6-MUO of head trauma patients. Since there was no difference between the values of the basic and CT models, using the basic model is recommended to simplify the risk

  14. Modeling of Present-Day Atmosphere and Ocean Non-Tidal De-Aliasing Errors for Future Gravity Mission Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmann-Wolf, I.; Dobslaw, H.; Mayer-Gürr, T.

    2015-12-01

    A realistically perturbed synthetic de-aliasing model consistent with the updated Earth System Model of the European Space Agency (Dobslaw et al., 2015) is now available for the years 1995 -- 2006. The data-set contains realizations of (i) errors at large spatial scales assessed individually for periods between 10 -- 30, 3 -- 10, and 1 -- 3 days, the S1 atmospheric tide, and sub-diurnal periods; (ii) errors at small spatial scales typically not covered by global models of atmosphere and ocean variability; and (iii) errors due to physical processes not represented in currently available de-aliasing products. The error magnitudes for each of the different frequency bands are derived from a small ensemble of four atmospheric and oceanic models. In order to demonstrate the plausibility of the error magnitudes chosen, we perform a variance component estimation based on daily GRACE normal equations from the ITSG-Grace2014 global gravity field series recently published by the University of Graz. All 12 years of the error model are used to calculate empirical error variance-covariance matrices describing the systematic dependencies of the errors both in time and in space individually for five continental and four oceanic regions, and daily GRACE normal equations are subsequently employed to obtain pre-factors for each of those matrices. For the largest spatial scales up to d/o = 40 and periods longer than 24 h, errors prepared for the updated ESM are found to be largely consistent with noise of a similar stochastic character contained in present-day GRACE solutions. Differences and similarities identified for all of the nine regions considered will be discussed in detail during the presentation.Dobslaw, H., I. Bergmann-Wolf, R. Dill, E. Forootan, V. Klemann, J. Kusche, and I. Sasgen (2015), The updated ESA Earth System Model for future gravity mission simulation studies, J. Geod., doi:10.1007/s00190-014-0787-8.

  15. Validation of CRASH Model in Prediction of 14-day Mortality and 6-month Unfavorable Outcome of Head Trauma Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrooz Hashemi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To date, many prognostic models have been proposed to predict the outcome of patients withtraumatic brain injuries. External validation of these models in different populations is of great importancefor their generalization. The present study was designed, aiming to determine the value of CRASH prognosticmodel in prediction of 14-day mortality (14-DM and 6-month unfavorable outcome (6-MUO of patients withtraumatic brain injury. Methods: In the present prospective diagnostic test study, calibration and discriminationof CRASH model were evaluated in head trauma patients referred to the emergency department. Variablesrequired for calculating CRASH expected risks (ER, and observed 14-DM and 6-MUO were gathered. Then ERof 14-DM and 6-MUO were calculated. The patients were followed for 6 months and their 14-DM and 6-MUOwere recorded. Finally, the correlation of CRASH ER and the observed outcome of the patients was evaluated.The data were analyzed using STATA version 11.0. Results: In this study, 323 patients with the mean age of 34.0´s 19.4 years were evaluated (87.3% male. Calibration of the basic and CT models in prediction of 14-day and6-month outcome were in the desirable range (P Ç 0.05. Area under the curve in the basic model for predictionof 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89–0.96 and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90–0.95, respectively. In addition,area under the curve in the CT model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91–0.97 and0.93 (95% CI: 0.91–0.96, respectively. There was no significant difference between the discriminations of thetwo models in prediction of 14-DM (p Æ 0.11 and 6-MUO (p Æ 0.1. Conclusion: The results of the presentstudy showed that CRASH prediction model has proper discrimination and calibration in predicting 14-DMand6-MUO of head trauma patients. Since there was no difference between the values of the basic and CT models,using the basic model is recommended to simplify the risk

  16. One-Day Prediction of Biometeorological Conditions in a Mediterranean Urban Environment Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Moustris

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study, deals with the 24-hour prognosis of the outdoor biometeorological conditions in an urban monitoring site within the Greater Athens area, Greece. For this purpose, artificial neural networks (ANNs modelling techniques are applied in order to predict the maximum and the minimum value of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET one day ahead as well as the persistence of the hours with extreme human biometeorological conditions. The findings of the analysis showed that extreme heat stress appears to be 10.0% of the examined hours within the warm period of the year, against extreme cold stress for 22.8% of the hours during the cold period of the year. Finally, human thermal comfort sensation accounts for 81.8% of the hours during the year. Concerning the PET prognosis, ANNs have a remarkable forecasting ability to predict the extreme daily PET values one day ahead, as well as the persistence of extreme conditions during the day, at a significant statistical level of .

  17. A data-driven model for constraint of present-day glacial isostatic adjustment in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, K. M.; Riva, R. E. M.; Kleinherenbrink, M.; Tangdamrongsub, N.

    2017-09-01

    Geodetic measurements of vertical land motion and gravity change are incorporated into an a priori model of present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North America via least-squares adjustment. The result is an updated GIA model wherein the final predicted signal is informed by both observational data, and prior knowledge (or intuition) of GIA inferred from models. The data-driven method allows calculation of the uncertainties of predicted GIA fields, and thus offers a significant advantage over predictions from purely forward GIA models. In order to assess the influence each dataset has on the final GIA prediction, the vertical land motion and GRACE-measured gravity data are incorporated into the model first independently (i.e., one dataset only), then simultaneously. The relative weighting of the datasets and the prior input is iteratively determined by variance component estimation in order to achieve the most statistically appropriate fit to the data. The best-fit model is obtained when both datasets are inverted and gives respective RMS misfits to the GPS and GRACE data of 1.3 mm/yr and 0.8 mm/yr equivalent water layer change. Non-GIA signals (e.g., hydrology) are removed from the datasets prior to inversion. The post-fit residuals between the model predictions and the vertical motion and gravity datasets, however, suggest particular regions where significant non-GIA signals may still be present in the data, including unmodeled hydrological changes in the central Prairies west of Lake Winnipeg. Outside of these regions of misfit, the posterior uncertainty of the predicted model provides a measure of the formal uncertainty associated with the GIA process; results indicate that this quantity is sensitive to the uncertainty and spatial distribution of the input data as well as that of the prior model information. In the study area, the predicted uncertainty of the present-day GIA signal ranges from ∼0.2-1.2 mm/yr for rates of vertical land motion, and

  18. MAY DAY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李佳

    2009-01-01

    @@ May 1 is Intemational Labour Day.It is a great holiday for the working class.On this day working people all over the world demonstrate(显示)their power and solidarity(团结).It has its origins(起因,起源)in the struggle for shorter working hours.In 1884,eight Labour Unions of the United States and Canada held a convention(集会)in Chicago(芝加哥).Here it was decided to wage(开展)a united struggle to win the eight-hour day.A resolution(决议) was adopted (通过)fixing May1,1886,for a great nationwide(全国性的)demonstration(示威).

  19. Statistically optimal estimation of degree-1 and C20 coefficients based on GRACE data and an ocean bottom pressure model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yu; Ditmar, Pavel; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-09-01

    In this study, we develop a methodology to estimate monthly variations in degree-1 and C20 coefficients by combing Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with oceanic mass anomalies (combination approach). With respect to the method by Swenson et al., the proposed approach exploits noise covariance information of both input data sets and thus produces stochastically optimal solutions supplied with realistic error information. Numerical simulations show that the quality of degree-1 and -2 coefficients may be increased in this way by about 30 per cent in terms of RMS error. We also proved that the proposed approach can be reduced to the approach of Sun et al. provided that the GRACE data are noise-free and noise in oceanic data is white. Subsequently, we evaluate the quality of the resulting degree-1 and C20 coefficients by estimating mass anomaly time-series within carefully selected validation areas, where mass transport is small. Our validation shows that, compared to selected Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and joint inversion degree-1 solutions, the proposed combination approach better complements GRACE solutions. The annual amplitude of the SLR-based C10 is probably overestimated by about 1 mm. The performance of the C20 coefficients, on the other hand, is similar to that of traditionally used solution from the SLR technique.

  20. A Descriptive Study of the Performance Appraisal of Supervisors of Spicer Higher Secondary School, Using "360 Degree Feedback" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemati, Hamidreza

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of the research was to study the performance of the supervisors in the aspects leadership, communication, and task managing by the "360 degree feedback" method. A qualitative research was used to carry out the research study. The researcher formulated three questions that guided the study. An opinionnaire which included 23…

  1. Students' Learning as the Focus for Shared Involvement between Universities and Clinical Practice: A Didactic Model for Postgraduate Degree Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlen, J.; Berg, L.; Bramberg, E. Bjork; Engstrom, A.; Millberg, L. German; Hoglund, I.; Jacobsson, C.; Lepp, M.; Liden, E.; Lindstrom, I.; Petzall, K.; Soderberg, S.; Wijk, H.

    2012-01-01

    In an academic programme, completion of a postgraduate degree project could be a significant means of promoting student learning in evidence- and experience-based practice. In specialist nursing education, which through the European Bologna process would be raised to the master's level, there is no tradition of including a postgraduate degree…

  2. Heterogeneity of mast cells and expression of Annexin A1 protein in a second degree burn model with silver sulfadiazine treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Helena Ribeiro; de Azevedo, Lucas Ribeiro; Possebon, Lucas; Costa, Sara de Souza; Iyomasa-Pilon, Melina Mizusaki; Oliani, Sonia Maria; Girol, Ana Paula

    2017-01-01

    Mast cells (MCs) participate in all stages of skin healing and one of their mediators is the Annexin A1 protein (AnxA1), linked to inflammation, proliferation, migration and apoptosis processes, but not studied in thermal burns yet. Therefore, our objectives were to evaluate the behavior of MCs and AnxA1 in a second degree burn model, treated or not with silver sulfadiazine 1% (SDP 1%) and associated to macrophages quantification and cytokines dosages. MCs counts showed few cells in the early stages of repair but increased MCs in the final phases in the untreated group. The normal skin presented numerous tryptase-positive MCs that were reduced after burning in all analyzed periods. Differently, few chymase-positive MCs were observed in the early stages of healing, however, increased chymase-positive MCs were found at the final phase in the untreated group. MCs also showed high immunoreactivity for AnxA1 on day 3 in both groups. In the tissue there was a strong protein expression in the early stages of healing, but in the final phases only in the SDP treated animals. TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10 and MCP-1 levels and macrophages quantification were increased in inflammation and reepithelialization phases. Reduced IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 levels and numerous macrophages occurred in the treated animals during tissue repair. Our results indicate modulation in the profile of MCs and AnxA1expression during healing by the treatment with SDP 1%, pointing them as targets for therapeutic interventions on skin burns. PMID:28278234

  3. Evaluation of CLINDE as potent translocator protein (18 kDa) SPECT radiotracer reflecting the degree of neuroinflammation in a rat model of microglial activation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arlicot, Nicolas; Duval, Stephanie; Guilloteau, Denis; Chalon, Sylvie [Inserm, U930, Tours (France); Universite Francois Rabelais, Tours (France); CHRU de Tours, Tours (France); Katsifis, Andrew; Mattner, Filomena [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Radiopharmaceuticals Research Institute, Sydney (Australia); Garreau, Lucette; Vergote, Jackie; Bodard, Sylvie [Inserm, U930, Tours (France); Universite Francois Rabelais, Tours (France)

    2008-12-15

    The translocator protein (TSPO; 18 kDa), the new name of the peripheral-type benzodiazepine receptor, is localised in mitochondria of glial cells and expressed in very low concentrations in normal brain. Their expression rises after microglial activation following brain injury. Accordingly, TSPO are potential targets to evaluate neuroinflammatory changes in a variety of CNS disorders. To date, only a few effective tools are available to explore TSPO by SPECT. We characterised here 6-chloro-2-(4'iodophenyl)-3-(N,N-diethyl)-imidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-acetamide or CLINDE in a rat model with different stages of excitotoxic lesion. Excitotoxicity was induced in male Wistar rats by unilateral intrastriatal injection of different amounts of quinolinic acid (75, 150 or 300 nmol). Six days later, two groups of rats (n = 5-6/group) were i.v. injected with [{sup 125}I]-CLINDE (0.4 MBq); one group being pre-injected with PK11195 (5 mg/kg). Brains were removed 30 min after tracer injection and the radioactivity of cerebral areas measured. Complementary ex vivo autoradiography, in vitro autoradiography ([{sup 3}H]-PK11195) and immunohistochemical studies (OX-42) were performed on brain sections. In the control group, [{sup 125}I]-CLINDE binding was significantly higher (p < 0.001) in lesioned than that in intact side. This binding disappeared in rats pre-treated with PK11195 (p<0.001), showing specific binding of CLINDE to TSPO. Ex vivo and in vitro autoradiographic studies and immunohistochemistry were consistent with this, revealing a spatial correspondence between radioactivity signal and activated microglia. Regression analysis yielded a positive relation between the ligand binding and the degree of neuroinflammation. These results demonstrate that CLINDE is suitable for TSPO in vivo SPECT imaging to explore their involvement in neurodegenerative disorders associated with microglial activation. (orig.)

  4. Physical Modeling and Parametric Study on Two-Degree-of-Freedom VIV of A Cylinder near Rigid Wall

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Bing; GAO Fu-ping; LI Dong-hui; WU Ying-xiang

    2009-01-01

    Unlike most previous studies on the transverse vortex-induced vibration(VIV) of a cylinder mainly under the wallfree condition (Williamson & Govardhan,2004),this paper experimentally investigates the vortex-induced vibration of a cylinder with two degrees of freedom near a rigid wall exposed to steady flow.The amplitude and frequency responses of the cylinder are discussed.The lee wake flow patterns of the cylinder undergoing VIV were visualized by employing the hydrogen bubble technique.The effects of the gap-to-diameter ratio (e0/D) and the mass ratio on the vibration amplitude and frequency are analyzed.Comparisons of VIV response of the cylinder are made between one degree (only transverse) and two degrees of freedom (streamwise and transverse) and those between the present study and previous ones.The experimental observation indicates that there are two types of streamwise vibration,i.e.the first streamwise vibration (FSV) with small amplitude and the second streamwise vibration (SSV) which coexists with transverse vibration.The vortex shedding pattem for the FSV is approximately symmetric and that for the SSV is alternate.The first streamwise vibration tends to disappear with the decrease of e0/D.For the case of large gap-to-diameter ratios (e.g.e0/D = 0.54~1.58),the maximum amplitudes of the second streamwise vibration and transverse one increase with the increasing gapto-diameter ratio.But for the case of small gap-to-diameter ratios (e.g.e0/D = 0.16,0.23),the vibration amplitude of the cylinder increases slowly at the initial stage (i.e.at small reduced velocity V,),and across the maximum amplitude it decreases quickly at the last stage (i.e.at large Vr).Within the range ofthe examined small mass ratio (m<4),both streamwise and transverse vibration amplitude of the cylinder decrease with the increase of mass ratio for the fixed value of V,.The vibration range (in terms of Vr ) tends to widen with the decrease of the mass ratio.In the second streamwise

  5. Day of the year-based prediction of horizontal global solar radiation by a neural network auto-regressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gani, Abdullah; Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Khorasanizadeh, Hossein; Seyed Danesh, Amir; Piri, Jamshid; Ismail, Zuraini; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-08-01

    The availability of accurate solar radiation data is essential for designing as well as simulating the solar energy systems. In this study, by employing the long-term daily measured solar data, a neural network auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NN-ARX) is applied to predict daily horizontal global solar radiation using day of the year as the sole input. The prime aim is to provide a convenient and precise way for rapid daily global solar radiation prediction, for the stations and their immediate surroundings with such an observation, without utilizing any meteorological-based inputs. To fulfill this, seven Iranian cities with different geographical locations and solar radiation characteristics are considered as case studies. The performance of NN-ARX is compared against the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results prove that day of the year-based prediction of daily global solar radiation by both NN-ARX and ANFIS models would be highly feasible owing to the accurate predictions attained. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis indicates the superiority of NN-ARX over ANFIS. In fact, the NN-ARX model represents high potential to follow the measured data favorably for all cities. For the considered cities, the attained statistical indicators of mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination for the NN-ARX models are in the ranges of 0.44-0.61 kWh/m2, 0.50-0.71 kWh/m2, and 0.78-0.91, respectively.

  6. Computation of Turbulent Heat Transfer on the Walls of a 180 Degree Turn Channel With a Low Reynolds Number Reynolds Stress Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameri, A. A.; Rigby, D. L.; Steinthorsson, E.; Gaugler, Raymond (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Low Reynolds number version of the Stress-omega model and the two equation k-omega model of Wilcox were used for the calculation of turbulent heat transfer in a 180 degree turn simulating an internal coolant passage. The Stress-omega model was chosen for its robustness. The turbulent thermal fluxes were calculated by modifying and using the Generalized Gradient Diffusion Hypothesis. The results showed that using this Reynolds Stress model allowed better prediction of heat transfer compared to the k-omega two equation model. This improvement however required a finer grid and commensurately more CPU time.

  7. Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2016-12-01

    The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

  8. INFLUENCE OF SOFT: SQUEEZING ON THE AXIAL CHEMICAL HETEROGENEITY DEGREE AT PRODUCTION OF CONTINUOUSLY-CASTED INGOTS. Message 2. Mathematical modeling and analysis of the results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju. A. Samojlovich

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical model and results of calculation analysis on determination of influence of ‘'soft squeezing” on degree of axial chemical heterogeneity(distribution of carbon, sulfur and manganese in billets, produced by means of continuous casting, are given.

  9. Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

    2017-06-01

    Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

  10. Hydrological Cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Kriegerova, Ida; Speranza, Antonio; 10.1029/2007JD009167

    2011-01-01

    We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961-2000 and for the 2161-2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature severa...

  11. Thanksgiving Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙刚

    2004-01-01

    Fourth Thursday in November almost every culture in the world has held celebrations of thanks for a plentiful harvest.The American thanksgiving in the early days of the American colonies almost four hundred years ago.On that date in 1621,the European settlers in Plymouth,Massachusetts,gave their thanks to god for letting them survive their first year in the new world.They celebrated by having a large feast or dinner.

  12. J/$\\psi$ suppression as a function of the energy of the zero degree calorimeter can it discriminate between deconfining and comovers interaction models?

    CERN Document Server

    Capella, A

    2001-01-01

    The ratio of $J/\\psi$ over Drell-Yan events as a function of the energy of the zero degree calorimeter in $Pb$ $Pb$ collisions has been computed in a comovers interaction model and compared with the results of a deconfining model. The predictions of the two models are different both for peripheral events and for very central ones. These differences are analyzed and the results of the models confronted with available data -- not only for $Pb$ $Pb$ but also for $pA$ and $SU$ collisions.

  13. Dusty wind of W Hya. Multi-wavelength modelling of the present-day and recent mass-loss

    CERN Document Server

    Khouri, T; de Koter, A; Decin, L; Min, M; de Vries, B L; Lombaert, R; Cox, N L J

    2015-01-01

    Low- and intermediate-mass stars go through a period of intense mass-loss at the end of their lives in a phase known as the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). During the AGB a significant fraction of their initial mass is expelled in a stellar wind. This process controls the final stages of their evolution and contributes to the chemical evolution of galaxies. However, the wind-driving mechanism of AGB stars is not yet well understood, especially so for oxygen-rich sources. Characterizing both the present-day mass-loss and wind structure and the evolution of the mass-loss rate of such stars is paramount to advancing our understanding of this processes. We modelled the dust envelope of W Hya using an advanced radiative transfer code. The dust model was analysed in the light of a previously calculated gas-phase wind model and compared to measurements available in the literature, such as infrared spectra, infrared images, and optical scattered light fractions. We find that the dust spectrum of W Hya can partly be ex...

  14. May Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙继山

    2005-01-01

    May Day is of course the traditional worldwide holiday for workers. Be sure, even though the market economy is by now the prevalent economic modus operandi in sodalist as well as capitalist countries, the workers movement has not lost a bit of its importance. The workers are those who keep the economy on track. And the workers are also the consumers, Without consumers, as every first term economy student at any university knows by now, there is no national economic growth. Therefore, the second long holiday of the year will certainly- be conducive to the economy.

  15. The relation between degree-2160 spectral models of Earth's gravitational and topographic potential: a guide on global correlation measures and their dependency on approximation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirt, Christian; Rexer, Moritz; Claessens, Sten; Rummel, Reiner

    2017-10-01

    Comparisons between high-degree models of the Earth's topographic and gravitational potential may give insight into the quality and resolution of the source data sets, provide feedback on the modelling techniques and help to better understand the gravity field composition. Degree correlations (cross-correlation coefficients) or reduction rates (quantifying the amount of topographic signal contained in the gravitational potential) are indicators used in a number of contemporary studies. However, depending on the modelling techniques and underlying levels of approximation, the correlation at high degrees may vary significantly, as do the conclusions drawn. The present paper addresses this problem by attempting to provide a guide on global correlation measures with particular emphasis on approximation effects and variants of topographic potential modelling. We investigate and discuss the impact of different effects (e.g., truncation of series expansions of the topographic potential, mass compression, ellipsoidal versus spherical approximation, ellipsoidal harmonic coefficient versus spherical harmonic coefficient (SHC) representation) on correlation measures. Our study demonstrates that the correlation coefficients are realistic only when the model's harmonic coefficients of a given degree are largely independent of the coefficients of other degrees, permitting degree-wise evaluations. This is the case, e.g., when both models are represented in terms of SHCs and spherical approximation (i.e. spherical arrangement of field-generating masses). Alternatively, a representation in ellipsoidal harmonics can be combined with ellipsoidal approximation. The usual ellipsoidal approximation level (i.e. ellipsoidal mass arrangement) is shown to bias correlation coefficients when SHCs are used. Importantly, gravity models from the International Centre for Global Earth Models (ICGEM) are inherently based on this approximation level. A transformation is presented that enables a

  16. The Robust Learning Model with a Spiral Curriculum: Implications for the Educational Effectiveness of Online Master Degree Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Yoram; Neumann, Edith; Lewis, Shelia

    2017-01-01

    This study integrated the Spiral Curriculum approach into the Robust Learning Model as part of a continuous improvement process that was designed to improve educational effectiveness and then assessed the differences between the initial and integrated models as well as the predictability of the first course in the integrated learning model on a…

  17. An exponential chemorheological model for viscosity dependence on degree-of-cure of a polyfurfuryl alcohol resin during the post-gel curing stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez, JC; Oliet, M.; Alonso, M. V.; Rodriguez, F.; Madsen, B.

    2016-07-01

    In the present study, the chemorheological behavior of a bio-based polyfurfuryl alcohol (PFA) resin has been determined by rheological isothermal tests at different curing temperatures for the post-gel curing stage of the resin, using three different amounts of catalyst (2, 4 and 6 wt %). Instead of modeling the evolution of the complex viscosity using a widely used chemorheological model such as the Arrhenius model for each tested temperature, the change of the complex viscosity as a function of the degree-of-cure was predicted using a new exponential type model. In this model, the logarithm of the normalized degree-of-cure is used to predict the behavior of the logarithm of the normalized complex viscosity. The model shows good quality of fitting with the experimental data for 4 and 6 wt % amounts of catalyst. For the 2 wt % amount of catalyst, scattered data leads to a slightly lower quality of fitting. Altogether, it is demonstrated that the new exponential model is a good alternative to conventional chemorheological models due to its simplicity and suitability.

  18. Update on SPLAT and cranberry fruitworm degree-days

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk reviews the mating disruption mechanism and work that we have done in the Steffan lab summers 2012-2014. In 2016 we mechanized the deployment of mating disruption with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. We are not continuing this form of mechanization at this time due to challenges with ...

  19. Differentially expressed proteins on postoperative 3 days healing in rabbit Achilles tendon rupture model after early kinesitherapy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ainuer Jialili; Haxiaobieke Kasimu; Jiasharete Jielile; Shajidan Abudoureyimu; Gulnur Sabirhazi; Darebai Redati; Bai Jingping; Bin Liang; Sailike Duisabai; Jiangaguli Aishan

    2011-01-01

    , peroxiredoxin 1, alpha-1-antiproteinase E a-1and MAD2L1 binding protein, etc. And some with the molecular chaperone, oxidative stress, energy metabolism,signal transduction, coupled with the tendon cell expression and protein synthesis, proliferate, differentiate and are closely related to the AT healing. The GAPDH protein was further validated through Western blotting. It was indicated that some differentially expressed proteins were involved in various metabolism pathways and may play an important role in initial healing of AT rupture.Conclusion: Differentially expressed proteins in rabbit healing AT model may contribute to 3 days healing of AT rupture through a new mechanobiological mechanism due to the application of postoperative early kinesitherapy.

  20. Mura days

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Symon, K.R. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States)

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the technical developments in which the MURA group participated, as recalled at this time by the author. Andrew Sessler contributed to many of these developments. Early work at MURA included the development of fixed-field alternating-gradient (FFAG) accelerators, the radial sector FFAG model, the spiral sector model, the development of the theory of rf acceleration in circular accelerators including beam stacking, and the development of colliding beams as a practical experimental goal. Theoretical studies also included nonlinear orbit computations, space charge limits, and analysis of the negative mass and other instabilities. Experimental studies of many of these phenomena used the FFAG models. The cascade synchrotron, developed during the 1959 MURA Summer Study, was the basis for most modern accelerators.{copyright}{ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}

  1. Science Challenge Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Science fairs can be good motivators, but as extracurricular activities, they leave some students behind. However, by staging a Science Challenge Day at school, educators can involve all students in doing everything from choosing activities to judging projects. This article presents a model for running a successful Science Challenge Day. The…

  2. Intra-Day Trading System Design Based on the Integrated Model of Wavelet De-Noise and Genetic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongguang Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis has been proved to be capable of exploiting short-term fluctuations in financial markets. Recent results indicate that the market timing approach beats many traditional buy-and-hold approaches in most of the short-term trading periods. Genetic programming (GP was used to generate short-term trade rules on the stock markets during the last few decades. However, few of the related studies on the analysis of financial time series with genetic programming considered the non-stationary and noisy characteristics of the time series. In this paper, to de-noise the original financial time series and to search profitable trading rules, an integrated method is proposed based on the Wavelet Threshold (WT method and GP. Since relevant information that affects the movement of the time series is assumed to be fully digested during the market closed periods, to avoid the jumping points of the daily or monthly data, in this paper, intra-day high-frequency time series are used to fully exploit the short-term forecasting advantage of technical analysis. To validate the proposed integrated approach, an empirical study is conducted based on the China Securities Index (CSI 300 futures in the emerging China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX market. The analysis outcomes show that the wavelet de-noise approach outperforms many comparative models.

  3. Investigating the 90-day oscillations using ground-based, satellite and TIME-GCM model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.; Taylor, M.; Hagan, M. E.; Pautet, P. D.; Pugmire, J. R.; Pendleton, W. R., Jr.; Russell, J. M., III

    2016-12-01

    The Andes Lidar Observatory (ALO) is an upper atmospheric observatory located high in the Andes mountain range at Cerro Pachón, Chile (30.3°S, 70.7°W, 2530 m). The Utah State University (USU) Mesospheric Temperature Mapper (MTM) was deployed in August, 2009 collocated with a Na wind/temperature lidar and a meteor wind radar from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) as well as other optical instrumentation. In this presentation, we focus on the characteristics of a unique 90-day oscillation identified in the first 18 months in both the mesospheric wind and temperature data from ALO. This event appeared to be long-lived but transient, with similar amplitude to the AO and SAO at this location. Additional mesospheric temperature data from nearby El Leoncito Observatory (31.8°S, 69.3°W), Argentina also showed the same oscillation. The existence and extent of this oscillation are being further examined using SABER/TIMED temperature. The National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulation of 2009/10 results are utilized to investigate the possible source of this event and the spatial structures are compared with the results from the SABER temperature data.

  4. Model for the high-temperature oxygen-ordering thermodynamics in YBa2Cu3O6+x - inclusion of electron spin and charge degrees of freedom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleger, P.; Hardy, W.N.; Casalta, H.

    1994-01-01

    A lattice-gas model for the high temperature oxygen-ordering thermodynamics in YBa2Cu3O6+x is presented, which assumes constant effective pair interactions between oxygen atoms and includes in a simple fashion the effect of the electron spin and charge degrees of freedom. This is done using...... a commonly utilized picture relating the creation of mobile electron holes and unpaired spins to the insertion of oxygen into the basal plane. The model is solved using the nearest-neighbor square approximation of the cluster-variation method. In addition, preliminary Monte Carlo results using next...

  5. A quasi-steady 3 degree-of-freedom model for the determination of the onset of bluff body galloping instability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjelstrup, H.; Georgakis, Christos

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a quasi-steady three degree-of-freedom (3-dof) flow-induced galloping instability model for bluff-bodies is proposed. The proposed model can be applied generally for the prediction of onset of galloping instability due to negative aerodynamic damping of any prismatic compact bluff...... of galloping instability due changes in drag, lift and moment, assuming that the bluff body is subject to uniform flow and motion. The changes may be a function of wind angle of attack (a) perpendicular to bluff body’s length axis, Reynolds number and a skew wind angle (f) in relation to the length axis...

  6. Simulation Modeling of the Motion Control of a Two Degree of Freedom, Tendon Based, Parallel Manipulator in Operational Space Using MATLAB

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jiu; HILLER Manfred; FANG Shi-qing

    2007-01-01

    In this paper a dynamical model of a two degree of freedom, tendon based, parallel manipulator (TBPM) system is proposed. The motion control methods of the TBPM system were designed. Using MATLAB, the motion control simulation of this model TBPM system was implemented in preparation for actual experiments. The results of the simulation demonstrated that the response time of the system was in a reasonable range, the motion behavior of the platform was stable and the tension forces acting on the tendons were in a safe range and acceptable. Furthermore, the parameters of the controllers were optimized using MATLAB and better results for the time response were obtained.

  7. Discrimination model of account sale decision-making risk degrees on the basis of different information acquisition degrees%基于不同信息获取量的赊销决策风险度判别模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙庆文; 张琼琼; 仇静莉; 王晓军

    2012-01-01

    面对随时可能灭失的商机,如何在既定的时间内选用最佳的调研方法,从而做出相对正确的赊销决策并有效控制赊销风险,对企业意义重大.将不完全信息状态下企业赊销客户的赊销决策问题视为一个时间离散、状态连续的随机过程.在充分考虑有限调研时间内调研方法选择对赊销客户信用等级判别精确度影响的基础上,结合空间分析方法构建了基于不同信息获取完备程度的客户信用评估模型,引用判别分析思想判别不完全信息下的客户信用评估精确度,并借鉴风险性决策思想计算不同赊销风险程度下的赊销期望收益.最后以一则算例展示模型的实用性.%Market economy presented a kind of phenomenon that the opportunities may be lost at any time. Enterprises need to choose the best investigation method in limited time, in order to acquire more information to make credit decisions more accurately. It is of great significance for enterprise in the situation. This article regards the problem of account sale decision-making in incomplete information state as a discrete time, continuous state stochastic process. The article establishes a model of customer credit evaluation on the basis of different information acquisition degrees. The model borrows some ideas from the method of spatial analysis. Then the article references the thought of discriminatory analysis to discriminate the accuracy of the customer credit evaluation in incomplete information state. At last, the article works out the expected profit of account sale by borrowing the thought of risk decision. The whole process is based on taking full account of the effect of different investigation methods on discrimination accuracy of customer credit rating within the limited time. At the end of the article, an example is given to show the practicality of the model.

  8. A Hybrid Multi-Step Model for Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Price Based on Optimization, Fuzzy Logic and Model Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Jiang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The day-ahead electricity market is closely related to other commodity markets such as the fuel and emission markets and is increasingly playing a significant role in human life. Thus, in the electricity markets, accurate electricity price forecasting plays significant role for power producers and consumers. Although many studies developing and proposing highly accurate forecasting models exist in the literature, there have been few investigations on improving the forecasting effectiveness of electricity price from the perspective of reducing the volatility of data with satisfactory accuracy. Based on reducing the volatility of the electricity price and the forecasting nature of the radial basis function network (RBFN, this paper successfully develops a two-stage model to forecast the day-ahead electricity price, of which the first stage is particle swarm optimization (PSO-core mapping (CM with self-organizing-map and fuzzy set (PCMwSF, and the second stage is selection rule (SR. The PCMwSF stage applies CM, fuzzy set and optimized weights to obtain the future price, and the SR stage is inspired by the forecasting nature of RBFN and effectively selects the best forecast during the test period. The proposed model, i.e., CM-PCMwSF-SR, not only overcomes the difficulty of reducing the high volatility of the electricity price but also leads to a superior forecasting effectiveness than benchmarks.

  9. Association of the Nonalcoholic Hepatic Steatosis and Its Degrees With the Values of Liver Enzymes and Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Mario Augusto Ferreira; Cruz, Josilda Ferreira; Macena, Larissa Baracho; de Santana, Demetrius Silva; Oliveira, Cristiane Costa da Cunha; Lima, Sonia Oliveira; Franca, Alex Vianey Callado

    2015-01-01

    Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is among the most common chronic diseases of the modern world with a wide variety of factors including genetic, environmental and metabolic. The aim of this study was to verify the association between the degrees of hepatic steatosis at the abdominal ultrasound and the values of aminotransferases (aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine transferase (ALT)), gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) index. Methods A prospective, descriptive survey study, using a quantitative analytical examination, was conducted from July 2013 to July 2014. In the statistical analysis, values were expressed as median, first and third quartiles. We used the nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test to compare the medians between the degrees of steatosis, adopted a statistical significance of 5% (P ≤ 0.05) and used the statistical program SPSS 22.0. Results We diagnosed 233/800 (29.1%) patients with hepatic steatosis on routine ultrasound, and 65.7% were female. Regarding degrees, 119 had grade 1 (51.0%), 94 grade 2 (40.4%) and 20 grade 3 (8.6%). The median age of the patients with grade 1, 2 or 3 did not vary significantly (P > 0.05). The median body mass index (BMI), although clinically important because of its elevation, did not differ significantly (P > 0.05). ALT levels increased as the degree of hepatic steatosis has advanced as well as the levels of AST, GGT and HOMA-IR. AST values showed a greater association with the severity of fatty liver (P = 0.0001) than the ALT (P = 0.001). Conclusions ALT, AST, GGT and HOMA-IR are associated to the degrees of hepatic steatosis on ultrasound and can help in the selection of patients for the liver histological evaluation. PMID:27785306

  10. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  11. 基于隶属度限幅特征VSM的文本分类模型%Modeling text classification based on membership degree limiting characteristic VSM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周菁; 戴冠中; 周婷婷

    2009-01-01

    Through the expression of text characteristic based on fuzzy qualifier and then definition of fuzzy feature using the fuzzy function, represented the text as the imposed membership degree limiting text feature vector. Constructuring membership degree limiting class feature matrix, and mapping each group of texts belong to the same class to its class expectation vector. All of class expectation vectors constructed the membership degree limiting characteristic VSM. Based on that, presented a new text-classification model and the experiment shows that the model is efficient.%通过文档基于模糊限定词的特征表达,定义特征的模糊函数,将文档表示为隶属度限幅的特征向量,构造文本集隶属度限幅的类特征矩阵,将每一类文本集映射为类期望向量,所有类期望向量便构成了隶属度限幅的特征VSM.在此基础上设计了一种新的文本分类模型.实验结果证明,该分类模型能有效实现文本分类.

  12. Extensive Loss of Islet Mass Beyond the First Day After Intraportal Human Islet Transplantation in a Mouse Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljebäck, Hanna; Grapensparr, Liza; Olerud, Johan; Carlsson, Per-Ola

    2016-01-01

    Clinical islet transplantation is characterized by a progressive deterioration of islet graft function, which renders many patients once again dependent on exogenous insulin administration within a couple of years. In this study, we aimed to investigate possible engraftment factors limiting the survival and viability of experimentally transplanted human islets beyond the first day after their transplantation to the liver. Human islets were transplanted into the liver of nude mice and characterized 1 or 30 days after transplantation by immunohistochemistry. The factors assessed were endocrine mass, cellular death, hypoxia, vascular density and amyloid formation in the transplanted islets. One day posttransplantation, necrotic cells, as well as apoptotic cells, were commonly observed. In contrast to necrotic death, apoptosis rates remained high 1 month posttransplantation, and the total islet mass was reduced by more than 50% between 1 and 30 days posttransplantation. Islet mass at 30 days posttransplantation correlated negatively to apoptotic death. Vascular density within the transplanted islets remained less than 30% of that in native human islets up to 30 days posttransplantation and was associated with prevailing hypoxia. Amyloid formation was rarely observed in the 1-day-old transplants, but was commonly observed in the 30-day-old islet transplants. We conclude that substantial islet cell death occurs beyond the immediate posttransplantation phase, particularly through apoptotic events. Concomitant low vascularization with prevailing hypoxia and progressive amyloid development was observed in the human islet grafts. Strategies to improve engraftment at the intraportal site or change of implantation site in the clinical setting are needed.

  13. Empowering Staff and Clients: Comparing Preferences for Management Models by the Professional Degrees Held by Organization Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardina, Donna; Montana, Salvador

    2011-01-01

    In this article, findings from a national survey of social service managers are described. Respondents were asked to identify theories and models of management that influenced their administrative activities. The results indicate that many of the respondents used an empowerment-oriented approach to management. Respondents were more likely to…

  14. Empowering Staff and Clients: Comparing Preferences for Management Models by the Professional Degrees Held by Organization Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardina, Donna; Montana, Salvador

    2011-01-01

    In this article, findings from a national survey of social service managers are described. Respondents were asked to identify theories and models of management that influenced their administrative activities. The results indicate that many of the respondents used an empowerment-oriented approach to management. Respondents were more likely to…

  15. 全日制专业学位硕士培养模式探析%Discussion of full-time professional degree master's training model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐焱; 侯原亮

    2012-01-01

      通过分析全日制专业学位硕士应具备的专业知识构成及现行培养体系普遍存在的问题,借鉴发达国家同类教育的成功经验,阐明了构建和完善适合地区发展的全日制专业学位硕士培养模式的根本途径。%  Through the analysis of a widespread existed problem that full-time professional degree master should possess the professional knowledge and the training system, mirrored the successful experience of similar education of the developed countries, the full-time professional degree master's training model basic way which constructed and perfected suitable regional development was expounded.

  16. Application of higher-order KdV-mKdV model with higher-degree nonlinear terms to gravity waves in atmosphere

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Zi-Liang

    2009-01-01

    Higher-order Korteweg-de Vries (KdV)-modified KdV (mKdV) equations with a higher-degree of nonlinear terms are derived from a simple incompressible non-hydrostatic Boussinesq equation set in atmosphere and are used to investigate gravity waves in atmosphere. By taking advantage of the auxiliary nonlinear ordinary differential equation, periodic wave and solitary wave solutions of the fifth-order KdV-mKdV models with higher-degree nonlinear terms are obtained under some constraint conditions. The analysis shows that the propagation and the periodic structures of gravity waves depend on the properties of the slope of line of constant phase and atmospheric stability. The Jacobi elliptic function wave and solitary wave solutions with slowly varying amplitude are transformed into triangular waves with the abruptly varying amplitude and breaking gravity waves under the effect of atmospheric instability.

  17. Hydrologic characterization of desert soils with varying degrees of pedogenesis: 2. Inverse modeling for eff ective properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, B.B.; Perkins, K.S.; Nimmo, J.R.; Singha, K.

    2009-01-01

    To understand their relation to pedogenic development, soil hydraulic properties in the Mojave Desert were investi- gated for three deposit types: (i) recently deposited sediments in an active wash, (ii) a soil of early Holocene age, and (iii) a highly developed soil of late Pleistocene age. Eff ective parameter values were estimated for a simplifi ed model based on Richards' equation using a fl ow simulator (VS2D), an inverse algorithm (UCODE-2005), and matric pressure and water content data from three ponded infi ltration experiments. The inverse problem framework was designed to account for the eff ects of subsurface lateral spreading of infi ltrated water. Although none of the inverse problems converged on a unique, best-fi t parameter set, a minimum standard error of regression was reached for each deposit type. Parameter sets from the numerous inversions that reached the minimum error were used to develop probability distribu tions for each parameter and deposit type. Electrical resistance imaging obtained for two of the three infi ltration experiments was used to independently test fl ow model performance. Simulations for the active wash and Holocene soil successfully depicted the lateral and vertical fl uxes. Simulations of the more pedogenically developed Pleistocene soil did not adequately replicate the observed fl ow processes, which would require a more complex conceptual model to include smaller scale heterogeneities. The inverse-modeling results, however, indicate that with increasing age, the steep slope of the soil water retention curve shitis toward more negative matric pressures. Assigning eff ective soil hydraulic properties based on soil age provides a promising framework for future development of regional-scale models of soil moisture dynamics in arid environments for land-management applications. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

  18. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  19. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  20. The impact of the Melbourne Model : Why did the world-class research university expand its graduate coursework degrees programs?

    OpenAIRE

    中世古, 貴彦; 木村, 拓也; 丸野, 俊一

    2016-01-01

    This paper is a case study to examine how a research university can become more “world-class” without expansion of Ph.D. programs and with curriculum reform pursuing late specialization. The balance between undergraduate level and graduate level is one of the most important issues for higher education institutions, especially for highly-specialized research universities. In 2008 the University of Melbourne undertook an education reform called “the Melbourne Model.” The reform introduced the g...

  1. A new model to predict remission status in AML patients based on day 14 bone marrow biopsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norkin, Maxim; Chang, Myron; An, Qi; Leather, Helen; Katragadda, Lakshmikanth; Li, Ying; Moreb, Jan S; May, W Stratford; Brown, Randy A; Hsu, Jack W; Hiemenz, John W; Wingard, John R; Cogle, Christopher R

    2016-07-01

    Although bone marrow evaluation on day 14 after initiation of induction chemotherapy (D14 BM) is a widely accepted practice in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), it has suboptimal predictive value for predicting complete remission. We retrospectively analyzed pretreatment characteristics and post-induction response in a cohort of AML patients to determine if adding clinical and laboratory characteristics can improve the predictive value of the D14 BM evaluation. Among 297 patients treated for AML at the single institution 183 patients (61%) had leukemia-positive D14 BM. Of those, 94 were given reinduction chemotherapy and 89 were not. Of the 89 patients who did not receive reinduction, 32 (36%) subsequently achieved complete remission (CR) or complete remission with incomplete count recovery (CRi), and 57 (64%) had persistent disease. Persistent disease after positive D14 BM was more likely associated with higher percentage of D14 myeloblasts, a history of relapsed disease before induction, and higher risk disease compared to patients who subsequently achieved CR. Age, diagnostic white blood cell count, and the D14 BM cellularity did not influence the subsequent likelihood of achieving remission in patients with a positive D14 BM. A new mathematical equation was created and resulted in a positive predictive value of 83%, negative predictive value 90% and accuracy 88% for correctly identifying remission status after positive D14 BM in AML. The accuracy of predicting response using these additional parameters was significantly higher than without (0.88 vs. 0.80, P=0.002). Our new model provides better accuracy for predicting the likelihood of achieving remission and if validated in future studies may be useful for managing AML patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Differentiated risk models in portfolio optimization: a comparative analysis of the degree of diversification and performance in the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ricardo Gartner

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Faced with so many risk modeling alternatives in portfolio optimization, several questions arise regarding their legitimacy, utility and applicability. In particular, a question arises involving the adherence of the alternative models with regard to the basic presupposition of Markowitz's classical model, with regard to the concept of diversification as a means of controlling the relationship between risk and return within a process of optimization. In this context, the aim of this article is to explore the risk-differentiated configurations that entropy can provide, from the point of view of the repercussions that these have on the degree of diversification and on portfolios performance. The reach of this objective requires that a comparative analysis is made between models that include entropy in their formulation and the classic Markowitz model. In order to contribute to this debate, this article proposes that adaptations are made to the models of relative minimum entropy and of maximum entropy, so that these can be applied to investment portfolio optimizations. The comparative analysis was based on performance indicators and on a ratio of the degree of portfolio diversification. The portfolios were formed by considering a sample of fourteen assets that compose the IBOVESPA, which were projected during the period from January 2007 to December 2009, and took into account the matrices of covariance that were formed as from January 1999. When comparing the Markowitz model with two models that were constructed to represent new risk configurations based on entropy optimization, the present study concluded that the first model was far superior to the others. Not only did the Markowitz model present better accumulated nominal yields, it also presented a far greater predictive efficiency and better effective performance, when considering the trade-off between risk and return. However, with regards to diversification, the Markowitz model concentrated

  3. Thermal decay rate of a metastable state with two degrees of freedom: Dynamical modelling versus approximate analytical formula

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    I I GONTCHAR; M V CHUSHNYAKOVA

    2017-06-01

    Accuracy of the Kramers approximate formula for the thermal decay rate of the metastable state is studied for the two-dimensional potential pocket. This is done by comparing with the quasistationary rate resulting from the dynamical modelling. It is shown that the Kramers rate is in agreement with the quasistationary rate within the statistical errors provided the absorptive border is far enough from the potential ridge restricting the metastable state. As the absorptive border (or its part) gets closer to the ridge, the Kramers formula underestimates the quasistationary rate. The difference reaches approximately the factor of 2 when the absorptive border coincides with the ridge.

  4. Thermal decay rate of a metastable state with two degrees of freedom: dynamical modeling versus approximate analytical formula

    CERN Document Server

    Gontchar, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Accuracy of the Kramers approximate formula for the thermal decay rate of the metastable state is studied for the two-dimensional potential pocket. This is done by the comparison with the quasistationary rate resulting from the dynamical modeling. It is shown that the Kramers rate is in agreement with the quasistationary rate within the statistical errors provided the absorptive border is far enough from the potential ridge restricting the metastable state. As the absorptive border (or its part) gets closer to the ridge the Kramers formula underestimate the quasistationary rate. The difference reaches approximately the factor of 2 when the absorptive border coincides with the ridge.

  5. The External Degree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, Cyril O.

    This book examines the external degree in relation to the extremes of attitudes, myths, and data. Emphasis is placed on the emergence of the American external degree, foreign external-degree programs, the purpose of the external degree, the current scene, institutional issues, and problems of general policy. (MJM)

  6. The creation of cooling degree (CDD) and heating degree day (HDD) climatic maps for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available of cooling and heating energy that would be required within a particular climatic region. To address this, the application of Standard Effective Temperature (SET) was assessed during the course of 2014 in an attempt to provide a rational and more accurate...

  7. The creation of cooling degree (CDD) and heating degree day (HDD) climatic maps for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available these standards the team concluded that Standard Effective Temperature (SET), as proposed by Gagge, might be the best index as it considers the effect of humidity in the experience of thermal comfort. SET maps were produced using the same data as had been used...

  8. A comparison of autonomic responses in humans induced by two simulation models of weightlessness: lower body positive pressure and 6 degrees head-down tilt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Q; Sugiyama, Y; Kamiya, A; Mano, T

    2000-04-12

    Six-degree head-down tilt (HDT) is well accepted as an effective weightlessness model in humans. However, some researchers utilized lower body positive pressure (LBPP) to simulate the cardiovascular and renal effects of a decreased gravitational stress. In order to determine whether LBPP was a suitable model for simulated weightlessness, we compared the differences between these two methods. Ten healthy males, aged 21-41 years, were subjected to graded LBPP at 10, 20 and 30 mmHg, as well as 6 degrees HDT. Muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) was microneurographically recorded from the tibial nerve along with cardiovascular variables. We found that MSNA decreased by 27% to a similar extent both at low levels of LBPP (10 and 20 mmHg) and HDT. However, at a high level of LBPP (30 mmHg), MSNA tended to increase. Mean arterial pressure was elevated significantly by 11% (10 mmHg) at 30 mmHg LBPP, but remained unchanged at low levels of LBPP and HDT. Heart rate did not change during the entire LBPP and HDT procedures. Total peripheral resistance markedly increased by 36% at 30 mmHg LBPP, but decreased by 9% at HDT. Both stroke volume and cardiac output tended to decrease at 30 mmHg LBPP, but increased at HDT. These results suggest that although both LBPP and HDT induce fluid shifts from the lower body toward the thoracic compartment, autonomic responses are different, especially at LBPP greater than 20 mmHg. We note that high levels of LBPP (>20 mmHg) activate not only cardiopulmonary and arterial baroreflexes, but also intramuscular mechanoreflexes, while 6 degrees HDT only activates cardiopulmonary baroreflexes. We conclude that LBPP is not a suitable model for simulated weightlessness in humans.

  9. Super-resolution reconstruction and higher-degree function deformation model based matching for Chang’E-1 lunar images

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    This article intends to solve the matching problem of 2C level lunar images by Chang’E-1(CE-1)lunar probe satellite.A line-scanner image matching method is proposed which represents deformation by the quadric function along the camera motion direction and bases on the deformation model for a relief terrain’s imaging on sensors of the satellite borne three-line scanner camera.A precise matching is carried out for the normal view,the frontward view,and the backward view images of the CE-1 by combining the proposed method with the standard correlation method.A super-resolution(SR)reconstruction algorithm based on the wavelet interpolation of non-uniformly sampled data is also adopted to realize SR reconstruction of CE-1 lunar images,which adds the recognizable targets and explores CE-1 lunar images to the full.

  10. Super-resolution reconstruction and higher-degree function deformation model based matching for Chang'E-1 lunar images

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI LiChun; YU QiFeng; YUAN Yun; SHANG Yang; LU HongWei; SUN XiangYi

    2009-01-01

    This article intends to solve the matching problem of 2C level lunar images by Chang'E-1(CE-1)lunar probe satellite.A line-scanner image matching method is proposed which represents deformation by the quadric function along the camera motion direction and bases on the deformation model for a relief terrain's imaging on sensors of the satellite borne three-line scanner camera.A precise matching is carried out for the normal view,the frontward view,and the backward view images of the CE-1 by combining the proposed method with the standard correlation method.A super-resolution(SR)reconatruction algorithm based on the wavelet interpolation of non-uniformly sampled data is also adopted to realize SR reconstruction of CE-1 lunar images,which adds the recognizable targets and explores CE-1 lunar images to the full.

  11. Transcriptome Profiling Reveals Degree of Variability in Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell Lines: Impact for Human Disease Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Jens; Halvardson, Jonatan; Pilar Lorenzo, Laureanne; Ameur, Adam; Sobol, Maria; Raykova, Doroteya; Annerén, Göran; Feuk, Lars; Dahl, Niklas

    2015-10-01

    Induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) technology has become an important tool for disease modeling. Insufficient data on the variability among iPSC lines derived from a single somatic parental cell line have in practice led to generation and analysis of several, usually three, iPSC sister lines from each parental cell line. We established iPSC lines from a human fibroblast line (HDF-K1) and used transcriptome sequencing to investigate the variation among three sister lines (iPSC-K1A, B, and C). For comparison, we analyzed the transcriptome of an iPSC line (iPSC-K5B) derived from a different fibroblast line (HDF-K5), a human embryonic stem cell (ESC) line (ESC-HS181), as well as the two parental fibroblast lines. All iPSC lines fulfilled stringent criteria for pluripotency. In an unbiased cluster analysis, all stem cell lines (four iPSCs and one ESC) clustered together as opposed to the parental fibroblasts. The transcriptome profiles of the three iPSC sister lines were indistinguishable from each other, and functional pathway analysis did not reveal any significant hits. In contrast, the expression profiles of the ESC line and the iPSC-K5B line were distinct from that of the sister lines iPSC-K1A, B, and C. Differentiation to embryoid bodies and subsequent analysis of germ layer markers in the five stem cell clones confirmed that the distribution of their expression profiles was retained. Taken together, our observations stress the importance of using iPSCs of different parental origin rather than several sister iPSC lines to distinguish disease-associated mechanisms from genetic background effects in disease modeling.

  12. Multi-Day Activity Scheduling Reactions to Planned Activities and Future Events in a Dynamic Model of Activity-Travel Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.; Timmermans, H.

    2014-01-01

    Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individual

  13. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pappenberger

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system consisting of three different model components (weather forecast, rainfall-runoff forecast and flood inundation forecast which are all liable to considerable uncertainty in the input, output and model parameters. Thus, an understanding of cascaded uncertainties is a necessary requirement to provide robust predictions. In this paper, 10-day ahead rainfall forecasts, consisting of one deterministic, one control and 50 ensemble forecasts, are fed into a rainfall-runoff model (LisFlood for which parameter uncertainty is represented by six different parameter sets identified through a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE analysis and functional hydrograph classification. The runoff of these 52 * 6 realisations form the input to a flood inundation model (LisFlood-FP which acknowledges uncertainty by utilising ten different sets of roughness coefficients identified using the same GLUE methodology. Likelihood measures for each parameter set computed on historical data are used to give uncertain predictions of flow hydrographs as well as spatial inundation extent. This analysis demonstrates that a full uncertainty analysis of such an integrated system is limited mainly by computer power as well as by how well the rainfall predictions represent potential future conditions. However, these restrictions may be overcome or lessened in the future and this paper establishes a computationally feasible methodological approach to the uncertainty cascade problem.

  14. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... swarm algorithm (QPSO). Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm....

  15. A new expansion method of first order nonlinear ordinary differential equation with at most a sixth-degree nonlinear term and its application to mBBM model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pan Jun-Ting; Gong Lun-Xun

    2008-01-01

    Based on a first order nonlinear ordinary differential equation with at most a sixth-degree nonlinear term which is extended from a type of elliptic equation,and by converting it into a new expansion form,this paper proposes a new algebraic method to construct exact solutions for nonlinear evolution equations.Being concise and straightforward,themethod is applied to modified Benjamin-Bona-Mahony (mBBM) model,and some new exact solutions to the system are obtained.The algorithm is of important significance in exploring exact solutions for other nonlinear evolution equations.

  16. Calculation Model of Satisfaction Degree Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set%直觉模糊满意度计算模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    鱼先锋; 张洁

    2014-01-01

    满意度理论广泛应用于优化、控制、管理、决策、资源分配、任务调度等领域,但大多是针对具体时间段定义和计算满意度,缺乏一种体现满意度在时间上变化的计算模型。笔者基于直觉模糊集理论建立了一个普适的多级直觉模糊满意度计算模型;利用直觉模糊集算子有效地诱导出直觉模糊满意度。给出直觉模糊满意态模型,计算满意度在时间上的变化态势,用发展的视角评价对象,将定性与定量的方法结合起来进行满意态计算,使计算结果信息量更大、更加科学合理且自动化程度高。分析了该模型的计算复杂度,并结合实例计算了商洛学院计算机科学系网络方向教师教学满意态,结果显示该模型高效实用。%Satisfaction degree theory is widely used in optimization, system control , management, decision-making, resource allocation, task scheduling, and other fields. But most of them based on specific times to define and calculate satisfaction degree, which lack of a calculation model can incarnate satisfaction degree’s change on time. Based on intuition fuzzy set theory established an universal multilevel intuitionistic fuzzy satisfaction degree calculation model. Effectively lead intuitionistic fuzzy filter operator to intuitionistic fuzzy satisfaction degree. Given a satisfaction situation model based on intuitionistic fuzzy set. Calculate the change trend of satisfaction over time. Based on development vision evaluate object. combine qualitative and quantitative methods to calculate satisfaction situation, make the results more informative, scientific , reasonable and have a high automated situation . Analyzes the model’s calculation complexity, and combined with a practical example compute the intuitionistic fuzzy satisfaction situation of department of computer science of Shangluo university’s teaching satisfaction situation of it’s Network direction teacher

  17. Comparison of the energy demand for comfort in houses of social interest in the municipality of Jiutepec, using the methodologies: degrees-day and TRNSYS; Comparacion de la demanda energetica para el confort de viviendas de interes social en el municipio de Jiutepec, utilizando las metodologias de grados-dia y de TRNSYS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gijon, Miguel; Alvarez, Gabriela; Aguilar, Jorge; Xaman, Jesus; Sima, Efrain; Flores, Jason (Mexico)

    2009-07-15

    In this article a thermal-environmental study is presented in order to evaluate the energy demand in the Morelos state. From collected climatologic data in seven automatic weather stations a comparative diagnosis by the application of two methodologies is realized, such as the one of the Degrees-day and the transitory thermal simulation of TRNSYS to determine the energy demand in traditional dwellings of social interest located in different regions of the State. In the methodology of the degrees-day the ambient temperature for two seasons of the year is used (rainy and dry) and the energy demand for the comfort in the Morelos State is evaluated. For the thermal simulation with the TRNSYS the climatic data obtained in monthly averages is used to determine the thermal loads of the house and the energy requirements in the different regions of the State. The results of the energy demand obtained by both methodologies for the municipality of Jiutepec and a statistic analysis of the existing relation between the degrees-day of cooling and the energy demand for cooling that the dynamic simulations deliver are presented. [Spanish] En este articulo se presenta un estudio termico-ambiental a fin de evaluar la demanda de energia en el Estado de Morelos. A partir de datos climatologicos recolectados en siete estaciones meteorologicas automaticas se realiza un diagnostico comparativo por la aplicacion de dos metodologias, como son la de los Grados-dia y la simulacion termica transitoria de TRNSYS para determinar la demanda energetica en viviendas tradicionales de interes social ubicadas en diferentes regiones del Estado. En la metodologia de los grados-dia se utiliza la temperatura ambiental para dos temporadas del ano (lluvias y secas) y se evalua la demanda energetica del Estado de Morelos para el confort. Para la simulacion termica con el TRNSYS se utiliza la informacion climatica obtenida en promedios mensuales para determinar las cargas termicas de la vivienda y los

  18. Influence of complexation between amylose and a flavored model sponge cake on the degree of aroma compound release.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo-Bayon, María-Angeles; Biais, Benoît; Rampon, Vincent; Cayot, Nathalie; Le Bail, Patricia

    2008-08-13

    Flavoring is used in the food industry to reinforce the aroma profile of baked cereal goods. During the processing of such products, interactions between starch and aroma compounds can occur, and this may have an impact on aroma release and perception. In the present study, 20 aroma compounds were tested to establish whether they formed complexes with amylose. The structure of the complexes was determined by wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS). A cocomplexation study proved that several complexing compounds could be present in the same crystalline aggregate. WAXS and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) experiments were performed in a flavored model sponge cake at different steps of processing and showed that aroma compounds might form complexes with amylose in a sponge cake as they can do in simple system containing only amylose. Some of the aroma compounds trapped in the sponge cake were quantified, and their release behavior was followed by headspace analysis. The V-type structure could partly explain aroma retention in the product and the rate of aroma release.

  19. The mappings of degree 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The maps of the form f( x = ∑ i=1 n a i ⋅x⋅ b i , called 1-degree maps, are introduced and investigated. For noncommutative algebras and modules over them 1-degree maps give an analogy of linear maps and differentials. Under some conditions on the algebra 𝒜 , contractibility of the group of 1-degree isomorphisms is proved for the module l 2 ( 𝒜 . It is shown that these conditions are fulfilled for the algebra of linear maps of a finite-dimensional linear space. The notion of 1-degree map gives a possibility to define a nonlinear Fredholm map of l 2 ( 𝒜 and a Fredholm manifold modelled by l 2 ( 𝒜 . 1-degree maps are also applied to some problems of Markov chains.

  20. Strategic Factors in the Choice of a Model of Public Relations. Case Study: Seventh-day Adventist Church World Headquarters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, Holly M.

    A study tested a model of organizational variables that earlier research had identified as important in influencing what model(s) of public relations an organization selects. Models of public relations (as outlined by J. Grunig and Hunt in 1984) are defined as either press agentry, public information, two-way asymmetrical, or two-way symmetrical.…

  1. Strategic Factors in the Choice of a Model of Public Relations. Case Study: Seventh-day Adventist Church World Headquarters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, Holly M.

    A study tested a model of organizational variables that earlier research had identified as important in influencing what model(s) of public relations an organization selects. Models of public relations (as outlined by J. Grunig and Hunt in 1984) are defined as either press agentry, public information, two-way asymmetrical, or two-way symmetrical.…

  2. Correlation of HIFs/PPAR signaling pathway activation degree and lipid metabolism in liver tissue of alcoholic fatty liver rat model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-Ying Guo; Ya-Min Li; Qing-Chun Li

    2015-01-01

    Objective:To study the correlation of HIFs/PPAR signaling pathway activation degree and lipid metabolism in liver tissue of alcoholic fatty liver rat model.Methods:Adult SD rats were selected and alcoholic fatty liver rat models were established by alcohol administration and high-fat diet feeding. Liver tissue was collected and contents of HIF-1α, PPARγ and lipid metabolism-related enzymes were detected; serum was collected and contents of lipid metabolism indexes and liver cell damage indexes were detected.Results:(1) one week, two weeks, three weeks and four weeks after models were established, HIF-1αα in livers of the model group showed an increasing trend and PPARγ showed a decreasing trend; HIF-1α content was higher than that of the control group and PPARγ content was lower than that of the control group; (2) contents of apoCII, apoCIII,α-GST and GLDH in serum as well as levels of FAT, FABP1, FAS, ACC and ACAT-2 in liver tissue of the model group all significantly increased, and were positively correlated with HIF-1α and negatively correlated with PPARγ.Conclusion:Transcription factor HIF-1α content abnormally increases and PPARγ content abnormally decreases in liver tissue of alcoholic fatty liver rat models; it results in abnormal lipid metabolism and liver cell damage through increasing the expression of lipid metabolism-related enzymes in the liver.

  3. Networks with superfat-tailed degree distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Timár, Gábor; Mendes, José Fernando F

    2016-01-01

    A majority of studied models for scale-free networks have degree distributions with exponents greater than $2$. Real networks, however, can demonstrate essentially more heavy-tailed degree distributions. We explore two models of scale-free equilibrium networks that have the degree distribution exponent $\\gamma = 1$, $P(q) \\sim q^{-\\gamma}$. Such "superfat-tailed" degree distributions can be identified in empirical data only if the mean degree of a network is sufficiently high. Our models exploit a rewiring mechanism. They are local in the sense that no knowledge of the network structure, apart from the immediate neighbourhood of the vertices, is required. These models generate uncorrelated networks in the infinite size limit, where they are solved explicitly. We investigate finite size effects by the use of simulations. We find that both models exhibit disassortative degree-degree correlations for finite network sizes. In addition, we observe a markedly degree-dependent clustering in the finite networks. We i...

  4. Model Child Care Standards Act--Guidance to States to Prevent Child Abuse in Day Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC.

    The document offers guidelines to states regarding review and revision of child care statutes, standards, and policies to address the prevention of child sexual abuse in day care facilities. General information is also provided on changes in state standards in recent years. Each of six sections examines findings of the 1981 Comparative Licensing…

  5. Genetic evaluation using random regression models with different covariance functions for test-day milk yield in an admixture population of Thailand goats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thepparat, Mongkol; Boonkum, Wuttigrai; Duangjinda, Monchai; Tumwasorn, Sornthep; Nakavisut, Sansak; Thongchumroon, Thumrong

    2015-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to compare covariance functions (CF) and estimate the heritability of milk yield from test-day records among exotic (Saanen, Anglo-Nubian, Toggenburg and Alpine) and crossbred goats (Thai native and exotic breed), using a random regression model. A total of 1472 records of test-day milk yield were used, collected from 112 does between 2003 and 2006. CF of the study were Wilmink function, second- and third-order Legendre polynomials, and linear splines 4 knots located at 5, 25, 90 and 155 days in milk (SP25-90) and 5, 35, 95 and 155 of days in milk (SP35-95). Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method (REML). Goodness of fit, Akaike information criterion (AIC), percentage of squared bias (PSB), mean square error (MSE), and empirical correlation (RHO) between the observed and predicted values were used to compare models. The results showed that CF had an impact on (co)variance estimation in random regression models (RRM). The RRM with splines 4 knots located at 5, 25, 90 and 155 of days in milk had the lowest AIC, PSB and MSE, and the highest RHO. The heritability estimated throughout lactation obtained with this model ranged from 0.13 to 0.23. © 2014 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  6. A time-to-event pharmacodynamic model describing treatment response in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis using days to positivity in automated liquid mycobacterial culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigutsa, Emmanuel; Patel, Kashyap; Denti, Paolo; Visser, Marianne; Maartens, Gary; Kirkpatrick, Carl M J; McIlleron, Helen; Karlsson, Mats O

    2013-02-01

    Days to positivity in automated liquid mycobacterial culture have been shown to correlate with mycobacterial load and have been proposed as a useful biomarker for treatment responses in tuberculosis. However, there is currently no quantitative method or model to analyze the change in days to positivity with time on treatment. The objectives of this study were to describe the decline in numbers of mycobacteria in sputum collected once weekly for 8 weeks from patients on treatment for tuberculosis using days to positivity in liquid culture. One hundred forty-four patients with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis were recruited from a tuberculosis clinic in Cape Town, South Africa. A nonlinear mixed-effects repeated-time-to-event modeling approach was used to analyze the time-to-positivity data. A biexponential model described the decline in the estimated number of bacteria in patients' sputum samples, while a logistic model with a lag time described the growth of the bacteria in liquid culture. At baseline, the estimated number of rapidly killed bacteria is typically 41 times higher than that of those that are killed slowly. The time to kill half of the rapidly killed bacteria was about 1.8 days, while it was 39 days for slowly killed bacteria. Patients with lung cavitation had higher bacterial loads than patients without lung cavitation. The model successfully described the increase in days to positivity as treatment progressed, differentiating between bacteria that are killed rapidly and those that are killed slowly. Our model can be used to analyze similar data from studies testing new drug regimens.

  7. Predicting 14-day mortality after severe traumatic brain injury: application of the IMPACT models in the brain trauma foundation TBI-trac® New York State database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roozenbeek, Bob; Chiu, Ya-Lin; Lingsma, Hester F; Gerber, Linda M; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ghajar, Jamshid; Maas, Andrew I R

    2012-05-01

    Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are important instruments in both clinical practice and research. To remain current a continuous process of model validation is necessary. We aimed to investigate the performance of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) prognostic models in predicting mortality in a contemporary New York State TBI registry developed and maintained by the Brain Trauma Foundation. The Brain Trauma Foundation (BTF) TBI-trac® database contains data on 3125 patients who sustained severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤ 8) in New York State between 2000 and 2009. The outcome measure was 14-day mortality. To predict 14-day mortality with admission data, we adapted the IMPACT Core and Extended models. Performance of the models was assessed by determining calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), and discrimination (separation of those patients who die from those who survive). Calibration was explored graphically with calibration plots. Discrimination was expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). A total of 2513 out of 3125 patients in the BTF database met the inclusion criteria. The 14-day mortality rate was 23%. The models showed excellent calibration. Mean predicted probabilities were 20% for the Core model and 24% for the Extended model. Both models showed good discrimination with AUCs of 0.79 (Core) and 0.83 (Extended). We conclude that the IMPACT models validly predict 14-day mortality in the BTF database, confirming generalizability of these models for outcome prediction in TBI patients.

  8. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  9. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Ausloos, Marcel; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  10. Study of helicopter autorotation landing following engine failure based on a six-degree-of-freedom rigid-body dynamic model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meng Wanli; Chen Renliang

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the prediction of the safe autorotation landing operations of a helicopter following engine failure. The autorotation landing procedure is formulated as a nonlinear optimal control problem based on an augmented six-degree-of-freedom rigid-body flight dynamic model. First, the cost function and constraints are properly selected. The direct transcription approach is then employed to solve the optimal control problem. For a UH-60 helicopter, the opti-mal solutions with the rigid-body model are compared with those obtained using a two-dimensional point-mass model. It is found that the optimal solutions using the two different models show rea-sonably good agreement, and furthermore the optimal solutions using the rigid-body model involve the time histories of angular rates and attitudes, lateral velocity and position, as well as pitch con-trols. Finally the optimal control formulations with different cost functions are proposed for taking account of 1-s time delay and minimum touchdown speed. The calculated control strategies and trajectories are realistic.

  11. On determination of the degree of dissociation of hydrogen in non-equilibrium plasmas by means of emission spectroscopy: I. The collision-radiative model and numerical experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrov, B P [Faculty of Physics, St Petersburg State University, St Petersburg 198504 (Russian Federation); Pipa, A V [Faculty of Physics, St Petersburg State University, St Petersburg 198504 (Russian Federation); Roepcke, J [INP-Greifswald, Friedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Str. 19, 17489 Greifswald (Germany)

    2006-02-15

    A new spectroscopic method of determination of the degree of dissociation of hydrogen is proposed. The method is based on measurements of the relative intensities of two atomic lines of the Balmer series, H{sub {alpha}} and H{sub {beta}}, and of one molecular line, the (2-2)Q1 line of the Fulcher-{alpha} system. These intensities are related to two plasma parameters: (i) the ratio of atomic and molecular hydrogen densities [H]/[H{sub 2}], connected with the degree of dissociation of hydrogen and (ii) the artificial parameter T{sub e}{sup eff}, characterizing a tail of an electron energy distribution function (EEDF) in the threshold region of electron impact excitation cross sections. The link between measured relative line intensities and plasma parameters was found in the framework of a most simple collision-radiative model taking into account only the direct and dissociative electron impact excitation and spontaneous decay of excited states. Numerical simulations made it possible to analyse main peculiarities and to estimate the range of the applicability of the method concerning numerical values of [H]/[H{sub 2}] and T{sub e}{sup eff}. For the first time, the fine structure of Balmer lines was taken into account in the spectroscopic determination of the degree of dissociation of hydrogen in non-equilibrium plasmas. The rate coefficients for electron impact excitation of the d{sup 3}{pi}{sub v}{sup -}, v = 2, N = 1 rovibronic level of the hydrogen molecule were calculated with a Maxwellian EEDF for electron temperatures T{sub e} 0.5-100 eV. Earlier calculated values of the emission rate coefficients for direct and dissociative electron impact excitation of H{sub {alpha}} and H{sub {beta}} lines were extended for electron temperatures up to 100 eV.

  12. 国产CPU自主生产程度评估模型%Evaluation Model for Initiative Degree of Domestic CPU Production

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱帅; 吴玲达; 郭静

    2016-01-01

    随着国内CPU设计加工技术的不断提高,国产 CPU 已进入批量生产阶段并在军队和政府部门得到初步应用.为鉴别国产 CPU 是否实现独立自主生产,杜绝由植入后门引起的安全隐患,在分析 CPU 设计生产一般流程的基础上,建立CPU自主生产程度指标体系;基于AHP法、Delphi法设计国产 CPU 自主生产程度评估模型,明确指标权重的确定策略与评分依据,得出待评估国产 CPU 自主生产程度值.%With continuous development of China-made central processing unit (CPU)design and manufacturing technology,domestic CPU has been in mass production and primary application in the military and governmental authorities.To identify whether China-made CPU is produced independ-ently and can avoid the security risk caused by implantation,based on the analysis on general process of CPU design and production,the paper establishes an indicator system of degree of independent CPU production;Based on AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)method and Delphi method,the paper designs a model of degree of independent production of China-made CPU,makes clear the determina-tion strategy and evaluation basis for the indicator weight and thus obtain the degree of independent production of China-made CPU to be evaluated.

  13. Influence of Atmospheric Variations on Photovoltaic Performance and Modeling Their Effects for Days with Clear Skies: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marion, B.

    2012-06-01

    Although variation in photovoltaic (PV) performance is predominantly influenced by clouds, performance variations also exist for days with clear skies with different amounts of atmospheric constituents that absorb and reflect different amounts of radiation as it passes through the earth's atmosphere. The extent of the attenuation is determined by the mass of air and the amounts of water vapor, aerosols, and ozone that constitute the atmosphere for a particular day and location. Because these constituents selectively absorb radiation of particular wavelengths, their impact on PV performance is sensitive to the spectral response of the PV device. The impact may be assessed by calculating the spectral mismatch correction. This approach was validated using PV module performance data at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for summer, fall, and winter days with clear skies. The standard deviation of daily efficiencies for single-crystal Si, a-Si/a-Si/a-Si:Ge, CdTe, and CIGS PV modules were reduced to 0.4% to 1.0% (relative) by correcting for spectral mismatch, temperature, and angle-of-incidence effects.

  14. Preliminary antiplaque efficacy of aloe vera mouthwash on 4 day plaque re-growth model: randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rajendra Kumar; Gupta, Devanand; Bhaskar, Dara John; Yadav, Ankit; Obaid, Khursheed; Mishra, Sumit

    2014-04-01

    Due to increasing resistance to antibiotics and rising incidence of oral diseases, there is a need for alternative treatment modalities to combat oral diseases. The aim of the present study was to access the effect of Aloe vera mouthwash on the dental plaque in the experimental period of 4 days and to compare it with the bench mark control chlorhexidine and placebo (saline water). A total of 300 systemically healthy subjects were randomly allocated into 3 groups: Aloe vera mouthwash group (n=100), control group (=100)-chlorhexidene group and saline water-Placebo (n=100). To begin with, Gingival index (GI) and plaque index (PI) were recorded. Then, baseline plaque scores were brought to zero by professionally cleaning the teeth with scaling and polishing. After randomization of the participants into three groups they were refrained from regular mechanical oral hygiene measures. Subjects were asked to swish with respective mouthwash (Aloe vera mouthwash, 0.2%chlorhexidine gluconate mouthwash, or normal saline) as per therapeutic dose for 4 days. The results showed that Aloe vera mouthrinse is equally effective in reducing plaque as Chlorhexidine compared to placebo over a period of 4 days. There was a significant reduction on plaque in Aloe vera and chlorhexidine groups and no statistically significant difference was observed among them (p>0.05). Aloe vera mouthwash showed no side effects. The results of the present study indicated that Aloe vera may prove an effective mouthwash due to its ability in reducing dental plaque.

  15. Impact of Indocyanine Green Concentration, Exposure Time, and Degree of Dissolution in Creating Toxic Anterior Segment Syndrome: Evaluation in a Rabbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamer Tandogan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To investigate the role of indocyanine green (ICG dye as a causative material of toxic anterior segment syndrome (TASS in an experimental rabbit model. Method. Eight eyes of four rabbits were allocated to this study. Capsular staining was performed using ICG dye, after which the anterior chamber was irrigated with a balanced salt solution. The effects of different concentrations (control, 0.25, 0.5, and 1.0%, exposure times (10 and 60 seconds, and the degree of dissolution (differently vortexed were investigated. The analysis involved anterior segment photography, ultrasound pachymetry, prostaglandin assay (PGE2 Parameter Assay, R&D systems, Inc., and scanning electron microscopy of each iris. Result. There was no reaction in the control eye. A higher aqueous level of PGE2 and more severe inflammatory reaction were observed in cases of eyes with higher concentration, longer exposure time, and poorly dissolved dye. Additionally, scanning electron microscopy revealed larger and coarser ICG particles. Conclusion. TASS occurrence may be associated with the concentration, exposure time, and degree of dissolution of ICG dye during cataract surgery.

  16. Feasibility of a Day-Camp Model of Modified Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy with and without Botulinum Toxin A Injection for Children with Hemiplegia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Ann-Christin; Shaw, Karin; Ponten, Eva; Boyd, Roslyn; Krumlinde-Sundholm, Lena

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the study was to investigate the feasibility of modified constraint-induced (CI) therapy provided in a 2-week day-camp model with and without intramuscular botulinum toxin type A (BoNT-A) injections for children with congenital cerebral palsy. Sixteen children with congenital hemiplegia, Manual Ability Classification System (MACS)…

  17. Comparison of random regression and repeatability models to predict breeding values from test-day records of Norwegian goats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andonov, S; Ødegård, J; Svendsen, M; Ådnøy, T; Vegara, M; Klemetsdal, G

    2013-03-01

    One aim of the research was to challenge a previously selected repeatability model with 2 other repeatability models. The main aim, however, was to evaluate random regression models based on the repeatability model with lowest mean-squared error of prediction, using Legendre polynomials up to third order for both animal additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. The random regression and repeatability models were compared for model fit (using likelihood-ratio testing, Akaike information criterion, and the Bayesian information criterion) and the models' mean-squared errors of prediction, and by cross-validation. Cross-validation was carried out by correlating excluded observations in one data set with the animals' breeding values as predicted from the pedigree only in the remaining data, and vice versa (splitting proportion: 0.492). The data was from primiparous goats in 2 closely tied buck circles (17 flocks) in Norway, with 11,438 records for daily milk yield and 5,686 to 5,896 records for content traits (fat, protein, and lactose percentages). A simple pattern was revealed; for daily milk yield with about 5 records per animal in first lactation, a second-order random regression model should be chosen, whereas for content traits that had only about 3 observations per goat, a first-order polynomial was preferred. The likelihood-ratio test, Akaike information criterion, and mean-squared error of prediction favored more complex models, although the results from the latter and the Bayesian information criterion were in the direction of those obtained with cross-validation. As the correlation from cross-validation was largest with random regression, genetic merit was predicted more accurate with random regression models than with the repeatability model.

  18. Genetic analysis of somatic cell score in Danish dairy cattle using ramdom regression test-day model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsaid, Reda; Sabry, Ayman; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2011-01-01

    over first lactation, genetic correlations are near unity between any time points in first lactation, and including a Wilmink term will improve the likelihood of more than an extra order Legendre polynomial. Ten data sets, consisting of 1,190,584 test day somatic cell count (SCC) records from 149...... with fifth order LP for PE effect and genetic effect were adequate to fit the data. The average heritability differed over the lactation and was lowest at the beginning (0.098) and higher at the end of lactation (0.138 to 0.151). Genetic correlations between daily SCS were high for adjacent tests (nearly 1...

  19. Arctic climate changes in the 21st century: Ensemble model estimates accounting for realism in present-day climate simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Semenov, V. A.

    2016-11-01

    In the course of forecasting future climate changes in the Arctic Region based on calculations and an ensemble of the state-of-the-art global climate models, the results depend on the method of construction the statistics from the models.

  20. Scheduling: Seven Period Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    Driven by stable or declining financial resources many school districts are considering the costs and benefits of a seven-period day. While there is limited evidence that any particular scheduling model has a greater impact on student learning than any other, it is clear that the school schedule is a tool that can significantly impact teacher…

  1. Modeling shade tree use by beef cattle as a function of black globe temperature and time of day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foust, Amanda M.; Headlee, William L.

    2017-08-01

    Increasing temperatures associated with global climate change threaten to disrupt agricultural systems such as beef production, yet relatively little is known about the use of natural tree shade to mitigate the negative effects of heat stress on beef cattle. In this study, we evaluated how temperature and time of day influenced the utilization of tree shade in relation to coloration, orientation, and behavior of beef cattle in a pasture system. Temperatures in shade and direct sunlight were measured using black globe temperature (BGT) data loggers. Time-lapse images from game cameras were used to obtain counts of shade usage, coloration, orientation, and behavior of cattle throughout the daytime hours. In general, we found that shade utilization and most of the predominating orientations and behaviors differed significantly (P effects (Hour × BGTsun) were often nonsignificant. The mean percentage of the herd using shade was highest in mid-morning (87-96%) and early afternoon (97%), but also increased with BGTsun regardless of the time of day; these trends were similar for both dark- and light-colored cattle. Lying down was the dominant behavior exhibited in the shade, while foraging was the most prevalent behavior in the sun. When herd shade usage was lowest in mid- to late-afternoon (<1%) we also observed an increase in the use of heat-mitigating orientations in the sun (37-47%). We discuss some practical implications of these results, including the potential use of temperature thresholds to interpret cattle behaviors and shade usage.

  2. Numerical modeling of historical change of volcanic heat sources: Numerical modeling of heat and mass transport up to 1000 degree C; Kazansei netsugen no keiji henka no shumyureshon kaiseki: 1000 degree C madeno netsu{center{underscore}dot}ryutai shumyureshon kaiseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanano, Mineyuki [JMC Geothermal Engineering Corp., Iwate (Japan)

    1998-12-01

    Temperature structure and its historical change around volcanos has been of interest for volcanology, geothermal development, etc. Magmatic intrusives have temperatures ranging from 700 to 850 degree C. Thus, there exists super-critical fluid around them. Numerical modeling of temperature changes around young volcanos and their heat sources thus requires treatment of the super-critical fluid. We describe one method for effective treatment of the super-critical fluid in the numerical modeling of porous media for the purpose of solving large-scale high-temperature problems of such phenomena. (author)

  3. Multistable slip of a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model in the presence of thermal-pressurized slip-weakening friction and viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeen-Hwa

    2017-08-01

    This study is focused on multistable slip of earthquakes based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model in the presence of thermal-pressurized slip-weakening friction and viscosity by using the normalized equation of motion of the model. The major model parameters are the normalized characteristic displacement, Uc, of the friction law and the normalized viscosity coefficient, η, between the slider and background plate. Analytic results at small slip suggest that there is a solution regime for η and γ ( = 1/Uc) to make the slider slip steadily. Numerical simulations exhibit that the time variation in normalized velocity, V/Vmax (Vmax is the maximum velocity), obviously depends on Uc and η. The effect on the amplitude is stronger due to η than due to Uc. In the phase portrait of V/Vmax versus the normalized displacement, U/Umax (Umax is the maximum displacement), there are two fixed points. The one at large V/Vmax and large U/Umax is not an attractor, while that at small V/Vmax and small U/Umax can be an attractor for some values of η and Uc. When Uc1, the related Fourier spectra show only one peak, thus suggesting linear behavior of the system.

  4. A novel model of interaction between high frequency electromagnetic non-ionizing fields and microtubules viewed as coupled two-degrees of freedom harmonic oscillators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caligiuri, Luigi Maxmilian

    2015-01-01

    The question regarding the potential biological and adverse health effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic fields on living organisms is of primary importance in biophysics and medicine. Despite the several experimental evidences showing such occurrence in a wide frequency range from extremely low frequency to microwaves, a definitive theoretical model able to explain a possible mechanism of interaction between electromagnetic fields and living matter, especially in the case of weak and very weak intensities, is still missing. In this paper it has been suggested a possible mechanism of interaction involving the resonant absorption of electromagnetic radiation by microtubules. To this aim these have been modeled as non-dissipative forced harmonic oscillators characterized by two coupled "macroscopic" degrees of freedom, respectively describing longitudinal and transversal vibrations induced by the electromagnetic field. We have shown that the proposed model, although at a preliminary stage, is able to explain the ability of even weak electromagnetic radiating electromagnetic fields to transfer high quantities of energy to living systems by means of a resonant mechanism, so capable to easily damage microtubules structure.

  5. A Convex Model of Risk-Based Unit Commitment for Day-Ahead Market Clearing Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Ning; Kang, Chongqing; Xia, Qing

    2015-01-01

    The integration of wind power requires the power system to be sufficiently flexible to accommodate its forecast errors. In the market clearing process, the scheduling of flexibility relies on the manner in which the wind power uncertainty is addressed in the unit commitment (UC) model. This paper...... and are considered in both the objective functions and the constraints. The RUC model is shown to be convex and is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem using relaxation and piecewise linearization. The proposed RUC model is tested using a three-bus system and an IEEE RTS79 system...... that the risk modeling facilitates a strategic market clearing procedure with a reasonable computational expense....

  6. MODIS/COMBINED MCD43B1 BRDF-Albedo Model 16-Day L3 Global 1km

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters product (MCD43A1) contains three-dimensional (3D) data sets providing users...

  7. MODIS/COMBINED MCD43A1 BRDF-Albedo Model Parameters 16-Day L3 Global 500m

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters product (MCD43A1) contains three-dimensional (3D) data sets providing users...

  8. A day in the life: a case series of acute care palliative medicine--the Cleveland model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagman, Ruth; Walsh, Declan; Heintz, Jessica; Legrand, Susan B; Davis, Mellar P

    2008-01-01

    Palliative care in advanced disease is complex. Knowledge and experience of symptom control and management of multiple complications are essential. An interdisciplinary team is also required to meet the medical and psychosocial needs in life-limiting illness. Acute care palliative medicine is a new concept in the spectrum of palliative care services. Acute care palliative medicine, integrated into a tertiary academic medical center, provides expert medical management and specialized care as part of the spectrum of acute medical care services to this challenging patient population. The authors describe a case series to provide a snapshot of a typical day in an acute care inpatient palliative medicine unit. The cases illustrate the sophisticated medical care involved for each individual and the important skill sets of the palliative medicine specialist required to provide high-quality acute medical care for the very ill.

  9. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuewen Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

  10. Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Naik

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, to explore changes in present-day (2000 hydroxyl radical (OH concentration and methane (CH4 lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850 and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42, in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%. Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone, compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC emissions. The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6% indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  11. Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  12. Principles of establishing material cycling with a high degree of closure in the experimental model of a BTLSS intended for a rated "fraction of a human"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikhomirov, Alexander A.; Ushakova, Sofya; Velichko, Vladimir; Tikhomirova, Natalia; Shikhov, Valentin; Trifonov, Sergey V.

    2016-07-01

    A promising way to develop future biotechnical life support systems (BTLSS) is to construct experimental models and establish the cycling intended for a fraction of a human. Being of relatively low cost, such models provide an opportunity to test effectively closed process that could be further transferred to the real BTLSS with humans. Researchers of the IBP SB RAS are developing an adequate BTLSS model with the loops closed to a high degree. To attain high closure of mass exchange processes, plants in the phototrophic compartment are cultivated under intensive lighting conditions, created by using modern LED irradiators of enhanced power, equipped with lens optics. The higher plant compartment has been renewed and broadened by including soybean plants, which improve the vegetable part of the human diet and make it more diverse. It is very important that the operation of the physicochemical installation for waste mineralization fully matches the composition of the atmosphere of plant growth chambers: the purified gaseous components of this installation enter the common atmosphere of the system, without causing any deviations from the norm in the gaseous composition. This proves the eco-friendliness of the developed physicochemical method of waste mineralization and shows that the gaseous components resulting from waste mineralization can be included in the system mass exchange. A system for including human respiration into the gas exchange of the BTLSS has been developed and tested; the associated gas exchange and water exchange dynamics have been analyzed. Results of the functioning of the experimental model of the BTLSS for several months are proposed for discussion in order to get insight into the formation of dynamic characteristics of cycling processes and factors determining them. The study was supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation (Project 14-14-00599) and carried out at the IBP SB RAS.

  13. Flicker cone function in normal and day blind sheep: a large animal model for human achromatopsia caused by CNGA3 mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezra-Elia, Raaya; Banin, Eyal; Honig, Hen; Rosov, Alexander; Obolensky, Alexey; Averbukh, Edward; Hauswirth, William W; Gootwine, Elisha; Ofri, Ron

    2014-12-01

    Recently we reported on day blindness in sheep caused by a mutation in the CNGA3 gene, thus making affected sheep a naturally occurring large animal model for therapeutic intervention in CNGA3 achromatopsia patients. The purpose of this study was to characterize flicker cone function in normal and day blind sheep, with the aim of generating a normative data base for ongoing gene therapy studies. Electoretinographic (ERG) cone responses were evoked with full-field conditions in 10 normal, 6 heterozygous carriers and 36 day blind sheep. Following light adaptation (10 min, 30 cd/m(2)), responses were recorded at four increasing light intensities (1, 2.5, 5 and 10 cd s/m(2)). At each of these intensities, a single photopic flash response followed by 8 cone flicker responses (10-80 Hz) was recorded. Results were used to generate a normative data base for the three groups. Differences between day blind and normal control animals were tested in two age-matched groups (n = 10 per group). The normal sheep cone ERG wave is bipartite in nature, with critical flicker fusion frequency (CFF) >80 Hz. In all four flash intensities, the single photopic flash a-wave and b-wave amplitudes were significantly lower (p < 0.005), and implicit times significantly delayed (p < 0.0001), in day blind animals. In all four flash intensities, CFF values were significantly lower (p < 0.0001) in day blind sheep. Cone function is severely depressed in day blind sheep. Our results will provide a normative data base for ongoing gene therapy studies.

  14. Real Analytic Machines and Degrees

    CERN Document Server

    Gärtner, Tobias; 10.4204/EPTCS.24.12

    2010-01-01

    We study and compare in two degree-theoretic ways (iterated Halting oracles analogous to Kleene's arithmetical hierarchy and the Borel hierarchy of descriptive set theory) the capabilities and limitations of three models of analytic computation: BSS machines (aka real-RAM) and strongly/weakly analytic machines as introduced by Hotz et. al. (1995).

  15. Preindustrial to present day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Naik

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We have analysed results from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, to explore trends in hydroxyl radical concentration (OH and methane (CH4 lifetime since preindustrial times (1850 and gain a better understanding of their key drivers. For the present day (2000, the models tend to simulate higher OH abundances in the Northern Hemisphere versus Southern Hemisphere. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against observations suggests low biases in the Northern Hemisphere that may contribute to the high north-south OH asymmetry in the models. A comparison of modelled and observed methyl chloroform lifetime suggests that the present day global multi-model mean OH concentration is slightly overestimated. Despite large regional changes, the modelled global mean OH concentration is roughly constant over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in OH sources (humidity, tropospheric ozone, and NOx emissions, together with decreases in stratospheric ozone and increase in tropospheric temperature, compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC emissions. The large intermodel diversity in the sign and magnitude of OH and methane lifetime changes over this period reflects differences in the relative importance of chemical and physical drivers of OH within each model. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about 4 months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, using a subset of the models, we find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to

  16. The Social Work Role in Reducing 30-Day Readmissions: The Effectiveness of the Bridge Model of Transitional Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Renae; Ginsburg, Jacob; Grabowski, Jessica; Post, Sharon; Rosenberg, Walter

    2016-04-01

    The hospital experience is taxing and confusing for patients and their families, particularly those with limited economic and social resources. This complexity often leads to disengagement, poor adherence to the plan of care, and high readmission rates. Novel approaches to addressing the complexities of transitional care are emerging as possible solutions. The Bridge Model is a person-centered, social work-led, interdisciplinary transitional care intervention that helps older adults safely transition from the hospital back to their homes and communities. The Bridge Model combines 3 key components-care coordination, case management, and patient engagement-which provide a seamless transition during this stressful time and improve the overall quality of transitional care for older adults, including reducing hospital readmissions. The post Affordable Care Act (ACA) and managed care environment's emphasis on value and quality support further development and expansion of transitional care strategies, such as the Bridge Model, which offer promising avenues to fulfil the triple aim by improving the quality of individual patient care while also impacting population health and controlling per capita costs.

  17. Restless led syndrome model Drosophila melanogaster show successful olfactory learning and 1-day retention of the acquired memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mika F. Asaba

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS is a prevalent but poorly understood disorder that ischaracterized by uncontrollable movements during sleep, resulting in sleep disturbance.Olfactory memory in Drosophila melanogaster has proven to be a useful tool for the study ofcognitive deficits caused by sleep disturbances, such as those seen in RLS. A recently generatedDrosophila model of RLS exhibited disturbed sleep patterns similar to those seen in humans withRLS. This research seeks to improve understanding of the relationship between cognitivefunctioning and sleep disturbances in a new model for RLS. Here, we tested learning andmemory in wild type and dBTBD9 mutant flies by Pavlovian olfactory conditioning, duringwhich a shock was paired with one of two odors. Flies were then placed in a T-maze with oneodor on either side, and successful associative learning was recorded when the flies chose theside with the unpaired odor. We hypothesized that due to disrupted sleep patterns, dBTBD9mutant flies would be unable to learn the shock-odor association. However, the current studyreports that the recently generated Drosophila model of RLS shows successful olfactorylearning, despite disturbed sleep patterns, with learning performance levels matching or betterthan wild type flies.

  18. Global distribution and variability of quasi 2 day waves based on the NOGAPS-ALPHA reanalysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancheva, Dora; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Siskind, David E.; Smith, Anne K.

    2016-11-01

    This study presents the analysis of 14 months (January 2009 to February 2010) of continuous hourly Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude reanalysis data used for examining the quasi 2 day wave (QTDW). The global structure and seasonal variability of the eastward and westward traveling QTDWs in all meteorological fields (geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind, and temperature) have been studied. The use of hourly reanalysis data allows a comprehensive understanding of the global spatial-temporal QTDW distribution by simultaneous separations of all tides and planetary waves. The wave characteristics (amplitudes and phases) are presented in latitude range ±80° and altitudes from 15 to 95 km. Two different types of eastward traveling waves are identified: (i) waves at middle and high latitudes with zonal wave numbers 2 and 3, which are observed in the local winters, and (ii) waves observed predominantly over the equator with zonal wave number 2, which do not have a well-defined seasonal variability but show some enhancement between June and August. While the first type waves are seen in all meteorological fields, the second ones are not seen in the meridional wind and belong to the ultrafast Kelvin waves. Two different types of westward traveling waves have been identified as well: (i) waves at middle and high latitudes with zonal wave numbers 2, 3, and 4, which are observed mainly in summer hemisphere, and (ii) waves observed predominantly over the equator with zonal wave numbers 1, 2, and 3, enhanced predominantly at both solstices but are seen in other seasons as well. While the first type waves are seen in all meteorological fields, the second ones are observed in the meridional wind and are Rossby-gravity normal modes.

  19. A New Model of Present-day Deformation of the Philippine Mobile Belt based on GPS and Seismological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacolcol, T. C.; Galgana, G. A.; Hamburger, M. W.; Nowicki, M. A.; McCaffrey, R.; Johnson, K. M.; Solidum, R.; Pelicano, A.; Luis, A.; Jorgio, R.; Rau, R.

    2013-12-01

    We present a comprehensive crustal deformation model for the Philippine Mobile Belt, based on a newly available suite of geodetic data from a dense nationwide network of newly observed and previously published continuous and campaign GPS sites in the Philippines, collected by PHIVOLCS and Indiana University. We use elastic block models constrained by known fault geometries, observed GPS observations and focal mechanism solutions to invert for an estimate of block rotations, fault coupling, and intra-block deformation. In our preferred model, the Philippine Mobile Belt can be represented by at least 12 independently moving rigid tectonic blocks, separated by active faults and subduction zones. We observe rapid convergence along the Manila Trench, which decreases progressively southwards, from > 100 mm/yr at around 20°N, to less than 20 mm/yr near its southern termination at Mindoro Island reflecting the ongoing collision between Mindoro and the Palawan block. Along the Philippine Trench, we observe ~50 mm/yr of oblique convergence, with the convergence changing from nearly westward in the south to NW near its northern termination. Slip rates along the Philippine fault vary from ~10 - 40 mm/yr, trending subparallel to the fault trace. In northern Luzon, Philippine Fault splays accommodate transpressional strain. The Central Visayas block experiences convergence with the Sundaland block along the Sulu Trench and the Mindoro-Palawan collision zone. Mindanao Island in the southern Philippines is dominated by east-verging subduction along the Cotabato Trench, and strain partitioning in eastern Mindanao along the southern Philippine Fault and Philippine Trench. We examine the spatial variation of subduction zone coupling along the Manila and Philippine trenches and examine their contribution to earthquake potential, through dynamic modeling of subduction-zone creeping and locked segments. Tests utilizing synthetic models of locking and creeping segments of the Manila

  20. Uncertainty in photochemical modeling results from using seasonal estimates vs day-specific emissions inputs for utility sources in an urban airshed in the northeast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arunachalam, S.; Georgopoulos, P.G. [Rutgers, the State Univ. of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Design and development of robust ozone control strategies through photochemical modeling studies are dependent to a large extent on the quality of the emissions inputs that are used. A key issue here in the quality of the emissions inventory is the choice between using day-specific information versus seasonal estimates for emissions from major utilities in the modeling domain of interest. Emissions of NO{sub x} from electric utilities constitute more than a third of the total NO{sub x} emissions from all sources ill a typical urban modeling domain, and hence it is important that the emissions from these sources are characterized as accurately as possible in the photochemical model. Since a considerable amount of resources are required to develop regional or urban-level emissions inventories for modeling purposes, one has to accept the level of detail that can be incorporated in a given modeling inventory and try to develop optimal control strategies based on the inputs. The sensitivity of the model to the differences in emissions inputs as mentioned above are examined in the New Jersey-Philadelphia-Delaware Valley Urban Airshed Model State Implementation Plan (SIP) application for two ozone episodes that occurred in the Northeastern US - the July 6-8, 1988 and the July 18-20, 1991. Day-specific emissions information are collected for a major portion of the elevated point sources within tile domain for these two episodes and various metrics besides the daily maximum one-hour averaged ozone predictions, are compared from model predictions for the two cases. Such comparative studies will bring into focus the presence of a weekend effect, if any, and differences between weekday and weekend emissions can also be tested with the model, using the same meteorology. Understanding the impact of this difference will lead to a better design sensitivity-uncertainty simulations and call lead to the development of robust emission control strategies as well.

  1. Inverse Degree and Connectivity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Xiao-ling; TIAN Ying-zhi

    2013-01-01

    Let G be a connected graph with vertex set V(G),order n =丨V(G)丨,minimum degree δ(G) and connectivity κ(G).The graph G is called maximally connected if κ(G) =δ(G).Define the inverse degree of G with no isolated vertices as R(G) =Σv∈V(G)1/d(v),where d(v) denotes the degree of the vertex v.We show that G is maximally connected if R(G) < 1 + 2/δ + n-2δ+1/(n-1)(n-3).

  2. Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Alder

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a new, non-flux corrected AOGCM, GENMOM, that combines the GENESIS version 3 atmospheric GCM (Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems and MOM2 (Modular Ocean Model version 2 nominally at T31 resolution. We evaluate GENMOM by comparison with reanalysis products (e.g., NCEP2 and three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semi-permanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures reasonably well the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM simulations include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-than-observed overturning circulation.

  3. Using a thermal-based two source energy balance model with time-differencing to estimate surface energy fluxes with day-night MODIS observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, Radoslaw; Anderson, M.C.; Kustas, W.P.

    2013-01-01

    model that enable applications using thermal observations from polar orbiting satellites, such as Terra and Aqua, with day and night overpass times over the area of interest. This allows the application of the DTD model in high latitude regions where large viewing angles preclude the use...... agreement with field measurements is obtained for a number of ecosystems in Denmark and the United States. Finally, regional maps of energy fluxes are produced for the Danish Hydrological ObsErvatory (HOBE) in western Denmark, indicating realistic patterns based on land use....

  4. Microbial successions are associated with changes in chemical profiles of a model refrigerated fresh pork sausage during an 80-day shelf life study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Andrew K; David, Jairus R D; Gilbreth, Stefanie Evans; Smith, Gordon; Nietfeldt, Joseph; Legge, Ryan; Kim, Jaehyoung; Sinha, Rohita; Duncan, Christopher E; Ma, Junjie; Singh, Indarpal

    2014-09-01

    Fresh pork sausage is produced without a microbial kill step and therefore chilled or frozen to control microbial growth. In this report, the microbiota in a chilled fresh pork sausage model produced with or without an antimicrobial combination of sodium lactate and sodium diacetate was studied using a combination of traditional microbiological methods and deep pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons. In the untreated system, microbial populations rose from 10(2) to 10(6) CFU/g within 15 days of storage at 4°C, peaking at nearly 10(8) CFU/g by day 30. Pyrosequencing revealed a complex community at day 0, with taxa belonging to the Bacilli, Gammaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Clostridia. During storage at 4°C, the untreated system displayed a complex succession, with species of Weissella and Leuconostoc that dominate the product at day 0 being displaced by species of Pseudomonas (P. lini and P. psychrophila) within 15 days. By day 30, a second wave of taxa (Lactobacillus graminis, Carnobacterium divergens, Buttiauxella brennerae, Yersinia mollaretti, and a taxon of Serratia) dominated the population, and this succession coincided with significant chemical changes in the matrix. Treatment with lactate-diacetate altered the dynamics dramatically, yielding a monophasic growth curve of a single species of Lactobacillus (L. graminis), followed by a uniform selective die-off of the majority of species in the population. Of the six species of Lactobacillus that were routinely detected, L. graminis became the dominant member in all samples, and its origins were traced to the spice blend used in the formulation.

  5. Using degrees of rate control to improve selective n-butane oxidation over model MOF-encapsulated catalysts: sterically-constrained Ag 3 Pd(111)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dix, Sean T. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering; Clemson University; Clemson, USA; Scott, Joseph K. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering; Clemson University; Clemson, USA; Getman, Rachel B. [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering; Clemson University; Clemson, USA; Campbell, Charles T. [Department of Chemistry; University of Washington; Seattle, USA

    2016-01-01

    Metal nanoparticles encapsulated within metal organic frameworks (MOFs) offer steric restrictions near the catalytic metal that can improve selectivity, much like in enzymes. A microkinetic model is developed for the regio-selective oxidation ofn-butane to 1-butanol with O2over a model for MOF-encapsulated bimetallic nanoparticles. The model consists of a Ag3Pd(111) surface decorated with a 2-atom-thick ring of (immobile) helium atoms which creates an artificial pore of similar size to that in common MOFs, which sterically constrains the adsorbed reaction intermediates. The kinetic parameters are based on energies calculated using density functional theory (DFT). The microkinetic model was analysed at 423 K to determine the dominant pathways and which species (adsorbed intermediates and transition states in the reaction mechanism) have energies that most sensitively affect the reaction rates to the different products, using degree-of-rate-control (DRC) analysis. This analysis revealed that activation of the C–H bond is assisted by adsorbed oxygen atoms, O*. Unfortunately, O* also abstracts H from adsorbed 1-butanol and butoxy as well, leading to butanal as the only significant product. This suggested to (1) add water to produce more OH*, thus inhibiting these undesired steps which produce OH*, and (2) eliminate most of the O2pressure to reduce the O* coverage, thus also inhibiting these steps. Combined with increasing butane pressure, this dramatically improved the 1-butanol selectivity (from 0 to 95%) and the rate (to 2 molecules per site per s). Moreover, 40% less O2was consumed per oxygen atom in the products. Under these conditions, a terminal H in butane is directly eliminated to the Pd site, and the resulting adsorbed butyl combines with OH* to give the desired 1-butanol. These results demonstrate that DRC analysis provides a powerful approach for optimizing catalytic process conditions, and

  6. Actinide Sorption in a Brine/Dolomite Rock System: Evaluating the Degree of Conservatism in Kd Ranges used in Performance Assessment Modeling for the WIPP Nuclear Waste Repository

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittrich, T. M.; Reed, D. T.

    2015-12-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, NM is the only operating nuclear waste repository in the US and has been accepting transuranic (TRU) waste since 1999. The WIPP is located in a salt deposit approximately 650 m below the surface and performance assessment (PA) modeling for a 10,000 year period is required to recertify the operating license with the US EPA every five years. The main pathway of concern for environmental release of radioactivity is a human intrusion caused by drilling into a pressurized brine reservoir below the repository. This could result in the flooding of the repository and subsequent transport in the high transmissivity layer (dolomite-rich Culebra formation) above the waste disposal rooms. We evaluate the degree of conservatism in the estimated sorption partition coefficients (Kds) ranges used in the PA based on an approach developed with granite rock and actinides (Dittrich and Reimus, 2015; Dittrich et al., 2015). Sorption onto the waste storage material (Fe drums) may also play a role in mobile actinide concentrations. We will present (1) a conceptual overview of how Kds are used in the PA model, (2) technical background of the evolution of the ranges and (3) results from batch and column experiments and model predictions for Kds with WIPP dolomite and clays, brine with various actinides, and ligands (e.g., acetate, citrate, EDTA) that could promote transport. The current Kd ranges used in performance models are based on oxidation state and are 5-400, 0.5-10,000, 0.03-200, and 0.03-20 mL g-1 for elements with oxidation states of III, IV, V, and VI, respectively. Based on redox conditions predicted in the brines, possible actinide species include Pu(III), Pu(IV), U(IV), U(VI), Np(IV), Np(V), Am(III), and Th(IV). We will also discuss the challenges of upscaling from lab experiments to field scale predictions, the role of colloids, and the effect of engineered barrier materials (e.g., MgO) on transport conditions. Dittrich

  7. Closed-form inverse kinematics for interventional C-arm X-ray imaging with six degrees of freedom: modeling and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lejing; Fallavollita, Pascal; Zou, Rui; Chen, Xin; Weidert, Simon; Navab, Nassir

    2012-05-01

    For trauma and orthopedic surgery, maneuvering a mobile C-arm fluoroscope into a desired position to acquire an X-ray is a routine surgical task. The precision and ease of use of the C-arm becomes even more important for advanced interventional imaging techniques such as parallax-free X-ray image stitching. Today's standard mobile C-arms have been modeled with only five degrees of freedom (DOF), which definitely restricts their motions in 3-D Cartesian space. In this paper, we present a method to model both the mobile C-arm and patient's table as an integrated kinematic chain having six DOF without constraining table position. The closed-form solutions for the inverse kinematics problem are derived in order to obtain the required values for all C-arm joint and table movements to position the fluoroscope at a desired pose. The modeling method and the closed-form solutions can be applied to general isocentric or nonisocentric mobile C-arms. By achieving this we develop an efficient and intuitive inverse kinematics-based method for parallax-free panoramic X-ray imaging. In addition, we implement a 6-DOF C-arm system from a low-cost mobile fluoroscope to optimally acquire X-ray images based solely on the computation of the required movement for each joint by solving the inverse kinematics on a continuous basis. Through simulation experimentation, we demonstrate that the 6-DOF C-arm model has a larger working space than the 5-DOF model. C-arm repositioning experiments show the practicality and accuracy of our 6-DOF C-arm system. We also evaluate the novel parallax-free X-ray stitching method on phantom and dry bones. Using five trials, results show that parallax-free panoramas generated by our method are of high visual quality and within clinical tolerances for accurate evaluation of long bone geometry (i.e., image and metric measurement errors are less than 1% compared to ground-truth).

  8. Degree by Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtis, Barbara

    1974-01-01

    Discusses a student's experience with a research project on the synthesis and reactions of an organo-platinum complex with an organo-Group IV linkage, including the advantages and disadvantages of such a degree by thesis course. (CC)

  9. Honorary Degree Congregation in Cambridge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    One day in mid-June 2006 when I was on a visit to the Countryside Restoration Trust at Barton near Cambridge, Mr. Christopher Stevenson, the director of Program of Events for Newcomers & Academic Visitors, gave me a letter enclosing a notice and a ticket I booked nearly two months earlier. He told me that I was very lucky because a strictly limited number of tickets had been allocated to academic visitors. It was a ticket to admit me to the Honorary Degree Congregation and to the reception afterwards on Tuesday 27 June.

  10. Development of the negative gravity anomaly of the 85 degrees E Ridge, northeastern Indian Ocean – A process oriented modelling approach

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sreejith, K.M.; Radhakrishna, M.; Krishna, K.S.; Majumdar, T.J.

    The 85 degrees E Ridge is associated with two contrasting gravity anomalies: negative anomaly over the north part (up to 5 degrees N latitude), where the ridge structure is buried under thick Bengal Fan sediments and positive anomaly over the south...

  11. Interplay of charge, spin, and lattice degrees of freedom in the spectral properties of the one-dimensional Hubbard-Holstein model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocera, A.; Soltanieh-ha, M.; Perroni, C. A.; Cataudella, V.; Feiguin, A. E.

    2014-11-01

    We calculate the spectral function of the one-dimensional Hubbard-Holstein model using the time-dependent density matrix renormalization group, focusing on the regime of large local Coulomb repulsion, and away from electronic half-filling. We argue that, from weak to intermediate electron-phonon coupling, phonons interact only with the electronic charge, and not with the spin degrees of freedom. For strong electron-phonon interaction, spinon and holon bands are not discernible anymore and the system is well described by a spinless polaronic liquid. In this regime, we observe multiple peaks in the spectrum with an energy separation corresponding to the energy of the lattice vibrations (i.e., phonons). We support the numerical results by introducing a well controlled analytical approach based on Ogata-Shiba's factorized wave function, showing that the spectrum can be understood as a convolution of three contributions, originating from charge, spin, and lattice sectors. We recognize and interpret these signatures in the spectral properties and discuss the experimental implications.

  12. Estimation of the effect of the degree of sewage treatment on the status of pollution along the coastline of the Mediterranean Sea using broad scale modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamou, Anastasios I; Kamizoulis, George

    2009-02-01

    A preliminary investigation was performed to estimate the effect of the degree of treatment in Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) on the status of pollution along the coastlines of the Mediterranean Sea. Data from questionnaires and the literature were collected and processed (a) to identify 18 approximate 1D surface coastal currents, (b) to estimate their prevailing direction and average flow velocity and (c) to estimate the water pollution loads and identify their locations of discharge. Then, a simplified 1D water quality model was formulated and applied for the existing conditions and two hypothetical scenarios: (1) all coastal cities have STPs with secondary treatment and (2) all coastal cities have STPs with tertiary treatment to determine BOD(5), TN and TP concentrations in the 18 surface coastal currents. Calculated concentrations were compared and discussed. A main conclusion is that, to reduce pollution in the Mediterranean Sea measures should be adopted for upgrading the water quality of the rivers discharging into the Mediterranean Sea, along with the construction of STPs for all the coastal cities.

  13. Electromagnetic induction in the oceans and the anomalous behaviour of coastal C-responses for periods up to 20 days

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, A.V.; Olsen, Nils; Avdeev, D.B.

    2002-01-01

    [1] Electromagnetic transfer functions at coastal sites are known to be strongly distorted by the conductivity of the seawater. This ocean effect is generally considered to be small for periods greater than a few days. We revise this statement by detailed and systematic model studies in the period....../bathymetry and map of sediment thicknesses. The simulations were performed for spatial resolutions of the surface shell of 5degrees x 5degrees,2degrees x 2degrees and 1degrees x 1degrees, respectively, and for two, continental and oceanic, underlying 1-D conductivity models. The inducing source is described...... that peculiarities in the observed coastal responses in the period range from 1 to 20 days can be explained to a large amount by induction in the oceans. We show that correction for the ocean effect results in responses that are much better interpretable by 1-D conductivity models compared to the uncorrected...

  14. Variations of oceanic oxygen isotopes at the present day and the LGM: equilibrium simulations with an oceanic general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The isotope-enabled oceanic general circulation model, MPI-OM, is used to simulate the oxygen isotope compositions of sea waters in the oceans under preindustrial and last glacial maximum climate conditions. Simulated oceanic isotope distributions at the last glacial maximum (21 000 yr ago show features similar to the preindustrial in most basins but the Northern North Atlantic. With the exception of the ice sheet impact, the oxygen-18 content variations at sea surface during the last glacial maximum are mainly controlled by the changes in boundary isotopic fluxes in most regions, while the changes from subsurface to bottom waters are mostly due to the differences in the water mass circulations. The changes in topography at the northern high latitudes have a remarkable influence on the isotopic composition in the Arctic Ocean. The pre-industrial and the last glacial maximum calcite oxygen isotope compositions in the surface water and their difference are also calculated. These results are compared with the observed values from different foraminifera species and are in agreement with the observations in most regions.

  15. Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Matthew J. R.; Milne, Glenn A.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Long, Antony J.

    2009-08-01

    We constrain a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) to the present-day using, primarily, observations of relative sea level (RSL) as well as field data on past ice extent. Our new model (Huy2) fits a majority of the observations and is characterised by a number of key features: (i) the ice sheet had an excess volume (relative to present) of 4.1 m ice-equivalent sea level at the LGM, which increased to reach a maximum value of 4.6 m at 16.5 ka BP; (ii) retreat from the continental shelf was not continuous around the entire margin, as there was a Younger Dryas readvance in some areas. The final episode of marine retreat was rapid and relatively late (c. 12 ka BP), leaving the ice sheet land based by 10 ka BP; (iii) in response to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) the ice margin retreated behind its present-day position by up to 80 km in the southwest, 20 km in the south and 80 km in a small area of the northeast. As a result of this retreat the modelled ice sheet reaches a minimum extent between 5 and 4 ka BP, which corresponds to a deficit volume (relative to present) of 0.17 m ice-equivalent sea level. Our results suggest that remaining discrepancies between the model and the observations are likely associated with non-Greenland ice load, differences between modelled and observed present-day ice elevation around the margin, lateral variations in Earth structure and/or the pattern of ice margin retreat.

  16. Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.; Ducharne, A.; Sultan, B.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

    2015-08-01

    The increased exposure of human populations to heat stress is one of the likely consequences of global warming, and it has detrimental effects on health and labor capacity. Here, we consider the evolution of heat stress under climate change using 21 general circulation models (GCMs). Three heat stress indicators, based on both temperature and humidity conditions, are used to investigate present-day model biases and spreads in future climate projections. Present day estimates of heat stress indicators from observational data shows that humid tropical areas tend to experience more frequent heat stress than other regions do, with a total frequency of heat stress 250-300 d yr-1. The most severe heat stress is found in the Sahel and south India. Present-day GCM simulations tend to underestimate heat stress over the tropics due to dry and cold model biases. The model based estimates are in better agreement with observation in mid to high latitudes, but this is due to compensating errors in humidity and temperature. The severity of heat stress is projected to increase by the end of the century under climate change scenario RCP8.5, reaching unprecedented levels in some regions compared with observations. An analysis of the different factors contributing to the total spread of projected heat stress shows that spread is primarily driven by the choice of GCMs rather than the choice of indicators, even when the simulated indicators are bias-corrected. This supports the utility of the multi-model ensemble approach to assess the impacts of climate change on heat stress.

  17. A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.

    2014-11-01

    Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

  18. Spectral, electrochemical, and catalytic properties of a homologous series of manganese porphyrins as cytochrome P450 model: the effect of the degree of beta-bromination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Dayse Carvalho; DeFreitas-Silva, Gilson; do Nascimento, Eliane; Rebouças, Júlio Santos; Barbeira, Paulo Jorge Sanches; de Carvalho, Maria Eliza Moreira Dai; Idemori, Ynara Marina

    2008-10-01

    A homologous series of beta-brominated porphyrins derived from meso-tetrakis(4-carbomethoxyphenyl)porphyrinatomanganese(III) chloride, i.e., Mn(III)(Br(x)TCMPP)Cl (x=0,2,4,6, and 8), was prepared and investigated as cytochrome P450 models. Hydroxylations of cyclohexane by iodosylbenzene (PhIO) and iodobenzene diacetate (PhI(OAc)(2)) in the presence or absence of water were carried out as P450 model reactions. The influence of the degree of beta-bromination of the macrocycle on the UV-vis spectra, the Mn(III)/Mn(II) reduction potential, and the catalytic properties of the Mn(III)(Br(x)TCMPP)Cl (x=0,2,4,6, and 8) series were examined. The catalytic efficiency does not correlate with the Mn(III)/Mn(II) reduction potential and shows a bell-shaped behavior, where the best results are achieved with the hexabrominated complex. Better hydroxylation yields were achieved by using PhI(OAc)(2) as oxygen donor, but at expenses of catalyst recovery; addition of water to this system resulted in a increase in the reaction rate. Recycling of the more oxidatively robust complexes Mn(III)(Br(6)TCMPP)Cl and Mn(III)(Br(8)TCMPP)Cl is feasible when using PhIO as oxygen donor. Selectivity and UV-vis data suggested that hydroxylation by both PhIO and PhI(OAc)(2) share closely related active species and mechanism. We also show that the Mn(III)/Mn(II) reduction potentials are inappropriate predictors of P450-type activity of Mn porphyrin-catalyzed oxidations.

  19. Application of single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction with a multiple-lactation random regression test-day model for Japanese Holsteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Toshimi; Gotoh, Yusaku; Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Satoshi; Abe, Hayato; Masuda, Yutaka; Kawahara, Takayoshi

    2017-08-01

    This study aimed to evaluate a validation reliability of single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) with a multiple-lactation random regression test-day model and investigate an effect of adding genotyped cows on the reliability. Two data sets for test-day records from the first three lactations were used: full data from February 1975 to December 2015 (60 850 534 records from 2 853 810 cows) and reduced data cut off in 2011 (53 091 066 records from 2 502 307 cows). We used marker genotypes of 4480 bulls and 608 cows. Genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBV) of 305-day milk yield in all the lactations were estimated for at least 535 young bulls using two marker data sets: bull genotypes only and both bulls and cows genotypes. The realized reliability (R(2) ) from linear regression analysis was used as an indicator of validation reliability. Using only genotyped bulls, R(2) was ranged from 0.41 to 0.46 and it was always higher than parent averages. The very similar R(2) were observed when genotyped cows were added. An application of ssGBLUP to a multiple-lactation random regression model is feasible and adding a limited number of genotyped cows has no significant effect on reliability of GEBV for genotyped bulls. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  20. ALICE Zero Degree Calorimeter

    CERN Multimedia

    De Marco, N

    2013-01-01

    Two identical sets of calorimeters are located on both sides with respect to the beam Interaction Point (IP), 112.5 m away from it. Each set of detectors consists of a neutron (ZN) and a proton (ZP) Zero Degree Calorimeter (ZDC), positioned on remotely controlled platforms. The ZN is placed at zero degree with respect to the LHC beam axis, between the two beam pipes, while the ZP is positioned externally to the outgoing beam pipe. The spectator protons are separated from the ion beams by means of the dipole magnet D1.

  1. Physics to a degree

    CERN Document Server

    Thomas, EG

    2014-01-01

    Physics to a Degree provides an extensive collection of problems suitable for self-study or tutorial and group work at the level of an undergraduate physics course. This novel set of exercises draws together the core elements of an undergraduate physics degree and provides students with the problem solving skills needed for general physics' examinations and for real-life situations encountered by the professional physicist. Topics include force, momentum, gravitation, Bernoulli's Theorem, magnetic fields, blackbody radiation, relativistic travel, mechanics near the speed of light, radioactive

  2. Revisiting 154-day periodicity in the occurrence of hard flares. A planetary influence?

    CERN Document Server

    Edmonds, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Rieger et al (1984) reported observations of a 154 day periodicity in flares during solar cycle 21. This paper discusses the observations in the light of a simple empirical planetary model of sunspot emergence. The planetary model predicts sunspot emergence when Mercury and Earth approach conjunction and Mercury approaches the Sun. We show that the reported times of flare activity are coherent with the planetary model. While the base period of the model is 170 days, the average model period, over the interval of flare recordings, is 157 days due to a 180 degree phase change in the planetary forcing near the middle of the record interval. We conclude that the periodicity at 154 days arises when the phase change in planetary forcing and the resulting progressive phase change in total sunspot area emergence and flare occurrence shifts the major peak in the flare spectrum from the planetary forcing period, 170 days, to 154 days.

  3. Preliminary Estimates of Loss of Juvenile Anadromous Salmonids to Predators in John Day Reservoir and Development of a Predation Model : Interim Report, 1986.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rieman, Bruce E.

    1986-03-01

    We made preliminary estimates of the loss of juvenile salmonids to predation by walleye, Stizostedion v. vitreum, and northern squawfish, Ptychocheilus oregonensis, in John Day Reservoir in 1984 and 1985 using estimates of predator abundance and daily prey consumption rates. Preliminary estimates may be biased and may be adjusted as much as 30%, but indications are that predation could account for the majority of unexplained loss of juvenile salmonids in John Day Reservoir. Total loss was estimated at 4.1 million in 1984 and 3.3 million in 1985. Northern squawfish consumed 76% and 92% of these totals, respectively. The majority of loss occurred in mid reservoir areas, but loss in a small area, the boat-restricted zone immediately below McNary Dam, was disproportionately large. Peaks in loss in May and July corresponded with peaks in availability of salmonids. Estimated mortality from predation for April through June in 1984 and 1985 was 9% and 7% respectively, for chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and 10% and 15% for steelhead, Salmogairdneri. Mortality was variable with time but tended to increase over the period of migration. Mortality of chinook was estimated at 26% to 55% during July and August. A model of predation in John Day Reservoir is outlined. The model includes a predation submodel that can calculate loss from predator number and consumption rate; a population submodel that can relate predator abundance and population structure to recruitment, exploitation, natural mortality and growth; and a distribution submodel that can apportion predators among areas of the reservoir over time. Applications of the model are discussed for projecting expected changes in predation over time and identifying management alternatives that might limit the impact of predation.

  4. Toward an Understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: With a Mesoscale-Convection-Resolving Model of 0.2 Degree Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masanori Yamasaki

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes results from numerical experiments which have been performed as the author's first step toward a better understanding of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO. This study uses the author's mesoscale-convection-resolving model that was developed in the 1980s to improve parametrization schemes of moist convection. Results from numerical experiments by changing the SST anomaly in the warm pool area indicate that the period of the MJO does not monotonously change with increasing SST anomaly. Between the two extreme cases (no anomaly and strong anomaly, there is a regime in which the period varies in a wide range from 20 to 60 days. In the case of no warm pool, eastward-propagating Kelvin waves are dominant, whereas in the case of a strong warm pool, it produces a quasi-stationary convective system (with pronounced time variation. In a certain regime between the two extreme cases, convective activities with two different properties are strongly interacted, and the period of oscillations becomes complicated. The properties and behaviors of large-scale convective system (LCS, synoptic-scale convective system (SCS, mesoscale convective system (MCS, and mesoscale convection (MC, which constitute the hierarchical structure of the MJO, are also examined. It is also shown that cloud clusters, which constitute the SCS (such as super cloud cluster SCC, consist of a few MCS, and a new MCS forms to the west of the existing MCS. The northwesterly and southwesterly low-level flows contribute to this feature. In view of recent emphasis of the importance of the relative humidity above the boundary layer, it is shown that the model can simulate convective processes that moisten the atmosphere, and the importance of latent instability (positive CAPE, which is a necessary condition for the wave-CISK, is emphasized.

  5. The accuracy of seven mathematical functions in modeling dairy cattle lactation curves based on test-day records from varying sample schemes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, A M; Petim-Batista, F; Colaço, J

    2006-05-01

    Daily milk yield over the course of the lactation follows a curvilinear pattern, so a suitable function is required to model this curve. In this study, 7 functions (Wood, Wilmink, Ali and Schaeffer, cubic splines, and 3 Legendre polynomials) were used to model the lactation curve at the phenotypic level, using both daily observations and data from commonly used recording schemes. The number of observations per lactation varied from 4 to 11. Several criteria based on the analysis of the real error were used to compare models. The performance of models showed few discrepancies in the comparison criteria when daily or 4-weekly (with first test at days in milk 8) data by lactation were used. The performance of the Wood, Wilmink, and Ali and Schaeffer models were highly affected by the reduction of the sample dimension. The results of this work support the idea that the performance of these models depends on the sample properties but also shows considerable variation within the sampling groups.

  6. Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

    2014-01-01

    Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

  7. Registered Nurse (Associate Degree).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This document, which is designed for use in developing a tech prep competency profile for the occupation of registered nurse (with an associate degree), lists technical competencies and competency builders for 19 units pertinent to the health technologies cluster in general and 5 units specific to the occupation of registered nurse. The following…

  8. One Degree of Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jean

    2012-01-01

    A 2011 survey of young adults conducted by Public Agenda found that a cluster of obstacles have prevented many of them from competing college. The author describes the opportunity, college awareness, and funding gaps that put a postsecondary degree out of the reach of so many young people. For example, just 3 in 10 non-college-completers are aware…

  9. Hard-hat day

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    CERN will be organizing a special information day on Friday, 27th June, designed to promote the wearing of hard hats and ensure that they are worn correctly. A new prevention campaign will also be launched.The event will take place in the hall of the Main Building from 11.30 a.m. to 2.00 p.m., when you will be able to come and try on various models of hard hat, including some of the very latest innovative designs, ask questions and pass on any comments and suggestions.

  10. AAS 228: Day 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    began the session by explaining his new models which trace the diffusive cooling of an initial supernova shock. His team has created an open source code, the SuperNova Explosion Code or SNEC, to allow others to explore a variety of explosion properties.Janie De La Rosa then spoke about her work on observing Type IIn supernovae (those with narrow emission lines in their spectra) at ultraviolet and optical wavelengths. These wavelengths are sensitive to progenitor models and the geometry of the surrounding material.Composite image of the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A, using data from the Chandra X-ray telescope, NASAs Spitzer Space Telescope, and ground-based facilities. [NASA/CXC/SAO]Following the exploration of progenitor geometry, Douglas C. Leonard spoke about his work in hunting for polarization in type IIP supernovae (those with long, plateaued light curves). A high degree of polarization implies asymmetry in the explosion itself, and he has been able to find such asymmetry in a number of type IIP supernovae. He pointed out that bubble-like structure (like what we see in the beautiful supernova remnant Cassiopeia A) might explain the polarization as well. Switching gears, Karri Kolijonen spoke about an interesting X-ray binary (a binary consistent of a compact object and star that emits strongly in X-rays) known as GS 1354-64. This pair has an extremely short orbital period of just two and a half days! He explained how an instability in the black holes accretion disk might explain a recent outburst in the system.Thomas Pannuti explained the basic morphologies of supernova remnants: shell, composite, and mixed. He has taken extensive, multiwavelength images of a mixed remnant known as W28 from radio through X-ray wavelengths. He notes that the radio masers in the remnant are offset from the X-ray light, although the significance of this is still an open question.Finally, Maria Dainotti wrapped up the session with a discussion of long duration GRBs as standard

  11. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements.

    Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfraujoch and Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean.

    For the ice core evaluation, models tend to capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes well at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice-core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct

  12. A multicenter study of 30 days complications after deceased donor liver transplantation in the model for end-stage liver disease score era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Anup; Washburn, Kenneth W; Matsuoka, Lea; Pandit, Urvashi; Kim, Jennifer E; Almeda, Jose; Mora-Esteves, Cesar; Halff, Glenn; Genyk, Yuri; Holland, Bart; Wilson, Dorian J; Sher, Linda; Koneru, Baburao

    2015-09-01

    Knowledge of risk factors for posttransplant complications is likely to improve patient outcomes. Few large studies of all early postoperative complications after deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) exist. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective, cohort study of 30-day complications, their risk factors, and the impact on outcomes after DDLT. Three centers contributed data for 450 DDLTs performed from January 2005 through December 2009. Data included donor, recipient, transplant, and outcome variables. All 30-day postoperative complications were graded by the Clavien-Dindo system. Complications per patient and severe (≥ grade III) complications were primary outcomes. Death within 30 days, complication occurrence, length of stay (LOS), and graft and patient survival were secondary outcomes. Multivariate associations of risk factors with complications and complications with LOS, graft survival, and patient survival were examined. Mean number of complications/patient was 3.3 ± 3.9. At least 1 complication occurred in 79.3%, and severe complications occurred in 62.8% of recipients. Mean LOS was 16.2 ± 22.9 days. Graft and patient survival rates were 84% and 86%, respectively, at 1 year and 74% and 76%, respectively, at 3 years. Hospitalization, critical care, ventilatory support, and renal replacement therapy before transplant and transfusions during transplant were the significant predictors of complications (not the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score). Both number and severity of complications had a significant impact on LOS and graft and patient survival. Structured reporting of risk-adjusted complications rates after DDLT is likely to improve patient care and transplant center benchmarking. Despite the accomplished reductions in transfusions during DDLT, opportunities exist for further reductions. With increasing transplantation of sicker patients, reduction in complications would require multidisciplinary efforts and institutional commitment

  13. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L. W.; McConnell, J. R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, J.-H.

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores

  14. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan

  15. Uso de esteroides sistémicos en quemaduras de segundo grado en modelo animal Systemic steroid use in second degree burns in an animal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ramos-Gallardo

    2012-06-01

    rats were sacrificed at 14th day. We evaluated the presence of clinical signs of infection and the percentage of new epithelium. In the microscope we evaluated the following parameters: fibrosis, inflammatory process, presence of fibroblast and vascular proliferation. We compared both groups using Chi² test (SPSS program version 10. A p =/<. 05 was considered as statistical significant. We found no difference between each group in fibrosis (p .47, inflammatory process (p .27, or fibroblast presence (p.16. But there was a difference in vascular proliferation (p .05 against the first group (steroid group. There were no signs of infection and all of them were epithelised at the 14th day. In conclusion, the use of steroids in burns in an animal model could have a final effect in wound healing. In humans it is important to say that they can be helpful in those cases with clear evidence of benefit, as for example failure to vassopresor response in septic shock. We are not sure about the final effect in wound healing in the steroid group as for example wound contracture in long term.

  16. Modeling interacting dynamic networks: II. Systematic study of the statistical properties of cross-links between two networks with preferred degrees

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Wenjia; Zia, R K P

    2014-01-01

    In a recent work \\cite{LiuJoladSchZia13}, we introduced dynamic networks with preferred degrees and presented simulation and analytic studies of a single, homogeneous system as well as two interacting networks. Here, we extend these studies to a wider range of parameter space, in a more systematic fashion. Though the interaction we introduced seems simple and intuitive, it produced dramatically different behavior in the single- and two-network systems. Specifically, partitioning the single network into two identical sectors, we find the cross-link distribution to be a sharply peaked Gaussian. In stark contrast, we find a very broad and flat plateau in the case of two interacting identical networks. A sound understanding of this phenomenon remains elusive. Exploring more asymmetric interacting networks, we discover a kind of `universal behavior' for systems in which the `introverts' (nodes with smaller preferred degree) are far outnumbered. Remarkably, an approximation scheme for their degree distribution can ...

  17. Interactive 3D forward modeling of total field surface and three-component borehole magnetic data for the Daye iron-ore deposit (Central China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yushan; Li, Yuanyuan; Liu, Tianyou; Zhan, Yinglin; Feng, Jie

    2011-10-01

    The ground magnetic response of deep ore bodies in the Daye iron-ore deposit is relatively weak, and sometimes concealed by the strong magnetic background of shallower sources. Apart from the low-quality ground magnetic data, another critical problem for reconstructing the deep skarn-type ore bodies is developing a versatile inversion scheme that can simultaneously resolve 3D sources with arbitrary shapes. In this case, we resort to interactive 3D forward modeling solution with the joint use of two data sets-total field surface and three-component borehole magnetic data. Joint inversion of the two data sets is expected to help resolve the ambiguity associated with either data set and greatly reduces the nonuniqueness of the magnetic inversion. Such nonuniqueness is especially severe when a 3-D distribution of magnetic susceptibility, instead of a simple body, is sought from the inversion. In this paper, we calculate the magnetic field on the surface and in the borehole caused by 3D arbitrarily-shaped bodies with the triple integral method. The complex 3D magnetic sources having arbitrary shapes are constructed with cross-sections, termination points and facets in our visualization technology. We specify, interactively and in a user-friendly environment, the outline of the sources in terms of geometric elements and their magnetic parameters. The method automatically fits the observations within a prescribed precision. If dissatisfied, the user can redefine the model parameters and proceed to a new inversion. The method's ability to interpret a complicated 3D geologic environment is demonstrated on synthetic models and real data profiles in the Daye iron-ore deposit in central China. The interactive forward modeling results in all tests demonstrate a good correlation of estimated magnetic sources with corresponding known geologic features.

  18. A Day For Love

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Young couples drive Valentine’s Day booms in China It is not clear when Chinese couplesstarted celebrating Valentine’s Day,but it has now firmly established itself as an important day around the Spring Festival,

  19. Assessment on Customer Satisfaction Degree of Weather Service for the 60th Anniversary of National Day of the People's Republic of China%国庆60周年庆祝活动气象服务满意度评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘进军; 段欲晓; 马晓青; 李如清; 许国宇

    2011-01-01

    It is very significant to provide high-level weather service for large-scale events such as the 60th anniversary of National Day of the People's Republic of China.In order to continuously improve the quality of large-scale event weather service,it is necessary to assess the customer satisfaction degree of weather service from the users' point of view.In this paper,the decision-making weather service for the 60th anniversary of National Day of the People's Republic of China,was generally assessed using a weather service customer satisfaction degree index(WSCSI).The perception of users' needs,weather service quality, ways of weather service,the ability of on-site service,weather early warning,emergency weather service and the overall benefits of weather services were analyzed deeply.Analysis results have shown that the average WSCSI reaches 97%,and the WSCSI for high impact weather reaches only 93%,thus the gap between satisfaction and expectation for it is relatively wider(6.7%).Further analyses have indicated that weather services satisfied customers' needs in high level,and the ability of forecast and service for high impact weather still needs to be improved.Through the impact assessment on weather service,meteorological department could thoroughly learn the service social and economic effects and find where need to improve,and thus strive to take measures to fill the gap between customers' satisfaction and expectation. It is helpful for meteorological department to gather experiences for the decision-making weather service of large-scale event.%中华人民共和国成立60周年庆祝活动是一项重要的大型活动,做好该活动的气象服务保障具有重要意义。为了不断地提高气象服务水平,有必要通过开展气象服务满意度评估等工作,深入了解重大活动气象服务用户的需求和满意度情况,从用户角度对重大活动气象服务进行评价并提出改进措施。该研究采用国际

  20. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS)

    OpenAIRE

    Pappenberger, F.; K. J. Beven; N. M. Hunter; Bates, P. D.; B. T. Gouweleeuw; Thielen, J.; A. P. J. De De Roo

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system consisting of three different model components (weather forecast, rainfall-runoff forecast and flood inundation forecast) which are all liable to considerable uncertainty in the input, output and model parameters. Thus, an understanding of cascaded uncertainties is a necessa...

  1. Random-lattice models and simulation algorithms for the phase equilibria in two-dimensional condensed systems of particles with coupled internal and translational degrees of freedom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Miao, Ling; Ipsen, John Hjorth;

    1996-01-01

    In this work we concentrate on phase equilibria in two-dimensional condensed systems of particles where both translational and internal degrees of freedom are present and coupled through microscopic interactions, with a focus on the manner of the macroscopic coupling between the two types...

  2. Data assimilation of a ten-day period during June 1993 over the Southern Great Plains Site using a nested mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, J.; Guo, Y.R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been to obtain a complete representation of physical processes on the scale of a general circulation model (GCM) grid box in order to better parameterize radiative processes in these models. Since an observational network of practical size cannot be used alone to characterize the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site`s 3D structure and time development, data assimilation using the enhanced observations together with a mesoscale model is used to give a full 4D analysis at high resolution. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been applied over a ten-day continuous period in a triple-nested mode with grid sizes of 60, 20 and 6.67 in. The outer domain covers the United States` 48 contiguous states; the innermost is a 480-km square centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. A simulation has been run with data assimilation using the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) 60-km analyses from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The nested domains take boundary conditions from and feed back continually to their parent meshes (i.e., they are two-way interactive). As reported last year, this provided a simulation of the basic features of mesoscale events over the CART site during the period 16-26 June 1993 when an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) was under way.

  3. Simultaneous stability and sensitivity in model cortical networks is achieved through anti-correlations between the in- and out-degree of connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Vasquez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Neuronal networks in rodent barrel cortex are characterized by stable low baseline firing rates. However, they are sensitive to the action potentials of single neurons as suggested by recent single-cell stimulation experiments that report quantifiable behavioral responses in response to short spike trains elicited in single neurons. Hence, these networks are stable against internally generated fluctuations in firing rate but at the same time remain sensitive to similarly-sized externally induced perturbations. We investigated stability and sensitivity in a simple recurrent network of stochastic binary neurons and determined numerically the effects of correlation between the number of afferent (‘in-degree’ and efferent (‘out-degree’ connections in neurons. The key advance reported in this work is that anti-correlation between in-/out-degree distributions increased the stability of the network in comparison to networks with no correlation or positive correlations, while being able to achieve the same level of sensitivity. The experimental characterization of degree distributions is difficult because all presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons have to be identified and counted. We explored whether the statistics of network motifs, which requires the characterization of connections between small subsets of neurons, could be used to detect evidence for degree anti-correlations. We find that the sample frequency of the 3-neuron ‘ring’ motif (1→2→3→1, can be used to detect degree anti-correlation for sub-networks of size 30 using about 50 samples, which is of significance because the necessary measurements are achievable experimentally in the near future.Taken together, we hypothesize that barrel cortex networks exhibit degree anti-correlations and specific network motif statistics.

  4. Mother’s Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张萍

    2009-01-01

    Mother’s Day is a day for each family to honor (尊敬,给……以光荣) its mother ,celebrated (庆祝)on various days in many places around the world.It complements (补足,补充) Father’s Day,the celebration

  5. Evaluation and adjustment of description of denitrification in the DailyDayCent and COUP models based on N2 and N2O laboratory incubation system measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosz, Balázs; Well, Reinhard; Dannenmann, Michael; Dechow, René; Kitzler, Barbara; Michel, Kerstin; Reent Köster, Jan

    2017-04-01

    data-sets are needed in view of the extreme spatio-temporal heterogeneity of denitrification. DASIM will provide such data based on laboratory incubations including measurement of N2O and N2 fluxes and determination of the relevant drivers. Here, we present how we will use these data to evaluate common biogeochemical process models (DailyDayCent, Coup) with respect to modeled NO, N2O and N2 fluxes from denitrification. The models are used with different settings. The first approximation is the basic "factory" setting of the models. The next step would show the precision in the results of the modeling after adjusting the appropriate parameters from the result of the measurement values and the "factory" results. The better adjustment and the well-controlled input and output measured parameters could provide a better understanding of the probable scantiness of the tested models which will be a basis for future model improvement.

  6. A network with tunable clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution, and an epidemic thereon

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, Frank; Sirl, David

    2012-01-01

    A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form a network. Clustering is obtained by forming small completely connected subgroups, and positive (negative) degree correlation is obtained by connecting a fraction of the stubs with stubs of similar (dissimilar) degree. An SIR (Susceptible -> Infective -> Recovered) epidemic model is defined on this network. Asymptotic properties of both the network and the epidemic, as the population size tends to infinity, are derived: the degree distribution, degree correlation and clustering coefficient, as well as a reproduction number $R_*$, the probability of a major outbreak and the relative size of such an outbreak. The theory is illustrated by Monte Carlo simulations and numerical examples. The main findings are that clustering tends to decrease the spread of disease, the effect of...

  7. The drug efficacy and adverse reactions in a mouse model of oral squamous cell carcinoma treated with oxaliplatin at different time points during a day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang K

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Kai Yang,1,2 Ningbo Zhao,1 Dan Zhao,1,2 Dan Chen,1 Yadong Li1 1Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 2Chongqing Key Laboratory for Oral Diseases and Biomedical Sciences, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China Background: Recent studies have shown that the growth and proliferation of cancer cells in vivo exhibit circadian rhythm, and the efficacy and adverse reactions of platinum-based anticancer drugs administered at different times of the day vary significantly on colon cancer. However, since the circadian rhythms of growth and proliferation of various cancer cells often differ, the question of whether the administration of platinum anticancer drugs at different times of the day exerts significantly different efficacy and adverse effects on oral cancers remains to be elucidated. This study has compared the efficacy and adverse effects of oxaliplatin (L-OHP administration at different times during a day on oral squamous cell carcinoma in mice and has analyzed cellular circadian rhythms. Methods: The mouse model for oral squamous cell carcinoma was established in 75 nude mice, housed in a 12 hour light/12 hour dark cycle environment. The mice were randomly divided into five groups; four experimental groups were intravenously injected with L-OHP at four time points within a 24-hour period (4, 10, 16, and 22 hours after lights on [HALO]. The control group was intravenously injected with the same volume of saline. Treatment efficacy and adverse reactions were compared on the seventh day after the injection, at 22 HALO. The existence of circadian rhythms was determined by cosine analysis. Results: Only injections of L-OHP at 16 and 22 HALO significantly prolonged animal survival time. The adverse reactions in mice injected with L-OHP at 16 and 22 HALO were significantly less than those observed in mice administered L-OHP at 4 and 10 HALO

  8. Coupled Model Simulations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal (30-50 day) Variability, Part 1: Systematic Errors and Caution on Use of Metrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Annamalai, H

    2007-05-30

    Boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability (BSISV) over the Asian monsoon region is more complex than its boreal winter counterpart, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), since it also exhibits northward and northwestward propagating convective components near India and over the west Pacific. Here we analyze the BSISV in the CMIP3 and two CMIP2+ coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Though most models exhibit eastward propagation of convective anomalies over the Indian Ocean, difficulty remains in simulating the life cycle of the BSISV, as few represent its eastward extension into the western/central Pacific. As such, few models produce statistically significant anomalies that comprise the northwest to southeast tilted convection which results from the forced Rossby waves that are excited by the near-equatorial convective anomalies. Our results indicate that it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, that the locations the time-mean monsoon heat sources and the easterly wind shear be simulated correctly in order for the life cycle of the BSISV to be represented realistically. Extreme caution is needed when using metrics, such as the pattern correlation, for assessing the fidelity of model performance, as models with the most physically realistic BSISV do not necessarily exhibit the highest pattern correlations with observations. Furthermore, diagnostic latitude-time plots to evaluate the northward propagation of convection from the equator to India and the Bay of Bengal also need to be used with caution. Here, incorrectly representing extratropical-tropical interactions can give rise to 'apparent' northward propagation when none exists in association with the eastward propagating equatorial convection. It is necessary to use multiple cross-checking diagnostics to demonstrate the fidelity of the simulation of the BSISV.

  9. Climatological features of blocking anticyclones: a study of Northern Hemisphere CCM1 model blocking events in present-day and double CO{sub 2} concentration atmospheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lupo, A.R. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Oglesby, R.J. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Mokhov, I.I. [Russian Acad. of Sci., Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Phys.

    1997-03-01

    Using output made with the national center for atmospheric research (NCAR) community climate model version 1 (CCM1), the characteristics of blocking events over the Northern Hemisphere in a ten-year present day control simulation with a CO{sub 2} concentration of 330 ppm were compared to those in a previously analyzed observational three-year climatology. The characteristics of blocking events in a double present-day CO{sub 2} concentration simulation were then compared to those in the control simulation in order to evaluate how these characteristics might change in an increased CO{sub 2} atmosphere. The results demonstrated that in the Northern Hemisphere the CCM1 correctly simulated many characteristics of blocking events such as average annual number of occurrences, annual variations is size and intensity, and preferred formation regions. A more detailed analysis (i.e., by region and season) revealed some differences between the CCM1 and observed blocking events for characteristics such as mean frequency of occurrence, intensity, size and duration. In addition, the model failed to capture adequately the occurrence of blocking events over the western Asian continent. A comparison of the double CO{sub 2} concentration run to the control showed that, in general, blocking events were more persistent and weaker, but of similar size in the increased CO{sub 2} atmosphere. Also, some statistically significant regional and seasonally dependent changes were found in the frequency of occurrence, duration, and intensity. Finally, a correlation between block size and intensity, significant at the 99% confidence level, was found in each climatology. This result is similar to a correlation found in the analysis of observations. (orig.). With 9 figs., 5 tabs.

  10. Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckland, Steeves; Cole, Nik C; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Gallagher, Laura E; Henshaw, Sion M; Besnard, Aurélien; Tucker, Rachel M; Bachraz, Vishnu; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Harris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

  11. Modeling interacting dynamic networks: II. Systematic study of the statistical properties of cross-links between two networks with preferred degrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

    2014-05-01

    In a recent work (Liu et al, 2013 J. Stat. Mech. P08001), we introduced dynamic networks with preferred degrees and presented simulation and analytic studies of a single, homogeneous system as well as two interacting networks. Here, we extend these studies to a wider range of parameter space, in a more systematic fashion. Though the interaction we introduced seems simple and intuitive, it produced dramatically different behavior in the single- and two-network systems. Specifically, partitioning the single network into two identical sectors, we find the cross-link distribution to be a sharply peaked Gaussian. In stark contrast, we find a very broad and flat plateau in the case of two interacting identical networks. A sound understanding of this phenomenon remains elusive. Exploring more asymmetric interacting networks, we discover a kind of ‘universal behavior’ for systems in which the ‘introverts’ (nodes with smaller preferred degree) are far outnumbered. Remarkably, an approximation scheme for their degree distribution can be formulated, leading to very successful predictions.

  12. When Graduate Degrees Prostitute the Educational Process: Degrees Gone Wild

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumadue, Richard T.

    2006-01-01

    Graduate degrees prostitute the educational process when they are sold to consumers by unaccredited degree/diploma mills as being equivalent to legitimate, bona-fide degrees awarded by accredited graduate schools. This article carefully analyzes the serious problems of bogus degrees and their association with the religious higher education…

  13. Risk model of thoracic aortic surgery in 4707 cases from a nationwide single-race population through a web-based data entry system: the first report of 30-day and 30-day operative outcome risk models for thoracic aortic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motomura, Noboru; Miyata, Hiroaki; Tsukihara, Hiroyuki; Takamoto, Shinichi

    2008-09-30

    The objective of this study was to collect integrated data from nationwide hospitals using a web-based national database system to build up our own risk model for the outcome from thoracic aortic surgery. The Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database was used; this involved approximately 180 hospitals throughout Japan through a web-based data entry system. Variables and definitions are almost identical to the STS National Database. After data cleanup, 4707 records were analyzed from 97 hospitals (between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2005). Mean age was 66.5 years. Preoperatively, the incidence of chronic lung disease was 11%, renal failure was 9%, and rupture or malperfusion was 10%. The incidence of the location along the aorta requiring replacement surgery (including overlapping areas) was: aortic root, 10%; ascending aorta, 47%; aortic arch, 44%; distal arch, 21%; descending aorta, 27%; and thoracoabdominal aorta, 8%. Raw 30-day and 30-day operative mortality rates were 6.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Postoperative incidence of permanent stroke was 6.1%, and renal failure requiring dialysis was 6.7%. OR for 30-day operative mortality was as follows: emergency or salvage, 3.7; creatinine >3.0 mg/dL, 3.0; and unexpected coronary artery bypass graft, 2.6. As a performance metric of the risk model, C-index of 30-day and 30-day operative mortality was 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. This is the first report of risk stratification on thoracic aortic surgery using a nationwide surgical database. Although condition of these patients undergoing thoracic aortic surgery was much more serious than other procedures, the result of this series was excellent.

  14. Valentine’s Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    <正>February 14 is a day for people who have fallen in love.On this day, these men and women give gifts(presents) and cards to each other for Valentine’s Day(情人节). This day has been popular with people in love for a long time.At first,this holiday was called Lupercalia. Then the name of the day was changed to Saint Valentine’s Day.The man named Saint Valentine was killed on February 14,270 AD,because he was a Christian(基督教徒).

  15. Day Care Centers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This database contains locations of day care centers for 50 states and Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. The dataset only includes center based day care locations...

  16. Genetic analysis of the twenty-one-day pregnancy rate in US Holsteins using an ordinal censored threshold model with unknown voluntary waiting period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Y M; González-Recio, O; Weigel, K A; Fricke, P M

    2007-04-01

    Genetic variation in the number of 21-d opportunity periods required to achieve pregnancy after the voluntary waiting period (VWP) had passed was examined using 44,901 lactation records of 29,422 lactating Holstein cows on 61 large commercial dairy farms in the United States. Cows were allowed a maximum of 8 opportunity periods, and the cumulative percentages of cows that became pregnant by the end of the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth opportunity periods were 19, 29, 37, 43, and 47%, respectively. In addition, 38% of records were censored because of culling or failure to achieve pregnancy after 8 opportunity periods. Mean days open was 128 d for complete records, whereas mean days to last service was 148 d for censored records. An ordinal censored threshold model was developed, in which duration of the VWP was estimated simultaneously with prediction of sire breeding values. The posterior mean of intraherd-year heritability for the number of 21-d opportunity periods required to achieve pregnancy was 0.06, with a posterior standard deviation of 0.01. Posterior means for duration of the VWP ranged from 28 to 74 d postpartum among the 116 herd-parity classes represented in the study, whereas farmer-reported survey values for duration of the VWP ranged from 30 to 78 d postpartum. Sires' predicted transmitting abilities were computed, assuming an unknown VWP (i.e., estimated from the data), a VWP fixed at 60 d postpartum, or a VWP fixed at farmer survey values. Correlations among sire predicted transmitting abilities from different models were > or = 0.98, although some reranking occurred among top sires. In summary, the proposed model for genetic evaluation of female fertility can accommodate heterogeneity in duration of the VWP between herds, as well as heterogeneity that may arise within herds owing to management practices such as intentional delay of first insemination in high-producing cows or cows with poor body condition, and it can also accommodate

  17. The Day Nursery Association of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio: A Long History of Care for Children, Involvement of Parents, and Service to the Community. Model Programs--Childhood Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    American Institutes for Research in the Behavioral Sciences, Palo Alto, CA.

    The multi-faceted program of the Day Nursery Association of Cleveland is described in this booklet. Specific topics included are: a therapeutic nursery school, day nurseries for low-income neighborhoods, neighborhood day care homes and group centers, summer camp, and consultation services. Sources of more detailed information are provided for this…

  18. A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhilong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO, the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN, and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

  19. Is day surgery safe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majholm, Birgitte; Engbæk, J; Bartholdy, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Day surgery is expanding in several countries, and it is important to collect information about quality. The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and unanticipated hospital visits 0-30 days post-operatively in a large cohort.......Day surgery is expanding in several countries, and it is important to collect information about quality. The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and unanticipated hospital visits 0-30 days post-operatively in a large cohort....

  20. Tehnical day: solar energy

    OpenAIRE

    Carli, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation presents an example of planning and carrying out a technical activity day in the field of solar energy in primary school grades 7 and 9. Firstly, we briefly present technical activity days, the goals and criteria for the planning of technical days, and the topics and devices connected to the technical day in question and were needed in the execution of the experiments. We have selected four simple experiments in the field of solar energy and prepared the needed worksheets fo...

  1. Eddy viscosity of core flow inferred from comparison between time evolutions of the length-of-day and a core surface flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsushima, M.

    2016-12-01

    Diffusive processes of large scales in the Earth's core are dominated not by the molecular diffusion but by the eddy diffusion. To carry out numerical simulations of realistic geodynamo models, it is important to adopt appropriate parameters. However, the eddy viscous diffusion, or the eddy viscosity, is not a property of the core fluid but of the core flow. Hence it is significant to estimate the eddy viscosity from core flow models. In fact, fluid motion near the Earth's core surface provides useful information on core dynamics, features of the core-mantle boundary (CMB), and core-mantle coupling, for example. Such core fluid motion can be estimated from spatial and temporal distributions of the geomagnetic field. Most of core surface flow models rely on the frozen-flux approximation (Roberts and Scott, 1965), in which the magnetic diffusion is neglected. It should be noted, however, that there exists a viscous boundary layer at the CMB, where the magnetic diffusion may play an important role in secular variations of geomagnetic field. Therefore, a new approach to estimation of core surface flow has been devised by Matsushima (2015). That is, the magnetic diffusion is explicitly incorporated within the viscous boundary layer, while it is neglected below the boundary layer at the CMB which is assumed to be a spherical surface. A core surface flow model between 1840 and 2015 has been derived from a geomagnetic field model, COV-OBS.x1 (Gillet et al., 2015). Temporal variations of core flows contain information on phenomena in relation with core-mantle coupling, such as the LOD (length-of-day), and spin-up/spin-down of core flows. In particular, core surface flows inside the viscous boundary layer at the CMB may reveal an interesting feature in relation with Earth's rotation. We have examined time series of the LOD and vorticity derived from the core surface flow model. We have found a possible correlation between the LOD and the axial component of global vorticity

  2. April Fools’ Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Abby

    2009-01-01

    April Fools’ Day,the day when mischief-makers(恶作剧的人)are ever so indulged(纵容),falls on April 1 every year.On that day,various pranks(恶作剧)are played on one another,and everybody has to be

  3. A Day to Celebrate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Participating countries at the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai can choose a day as their National Pavilion Day.The day is usually celebrated with ceremonies and performances,which bring the nation’s culture and its character to life.

  4. Valentine’s Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾晓玲

    2009-01-01

    Valentine’s Day, which falls on February 14, is one of the most popular festivals of western society and even the whole world. It is a day for lovers, a day when people present chocolates, cards and candies to their beloved (心爱的人).

  5. Degree-layer theory of network topology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Bin; Zhe, He

    2014-01-01

    The network topology can be described by the number of nodes and the interconnections among them. The degree of a node in a network is the number of connections it has to other nodes and the degree distribution is the probability distribution of these degrees over the whole network. Therefore, the degree is very important structural parameter of network topology. However, given the number of nodes and the degree of each node in a network, the topology of the network cannot be determined. Therefore, we propose the degree-layer theory of network topology to describe deeply the network topology. First, we propose the concept of degree-tree with the breadth-first search tree. The degrees of all nodes are layered and have a hierarchical structure. Second,the degree-layer theory is described in detail. Two new concepts are defined in the theory. An index is proposed to quantitatively distinguish the two network topologies. It also can quantitatively measure the stability of network topology built by a model mechani...

  6. A modelling study of air quality impact of odd-even day traffic restriction scheme before, during and after the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, H.; Xie, S. D.

    2010-02-01

    Systematic air pollution control measures were designed and implemented to improve air quality for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. This study focuses on the evaluation of the air quality impacts of a short-term odd-even day traffic restriction scheme (TRS) implemented before, during and after the Games, based on modelling simulation by a well validated urban-scale air quality model. Concentration levels of CO, PM10, NO2 and O3 were predicted for the pre- (10-19 July), during- (20 July-20 September) and post-TRS (21-30 September) periods, based on the on-line monitored traffic flows on a total of 334 road segments constituting the 2nd, 3rd, 4th Ring Roads (RR) and the major Linkage Roads (LRs) that were subject to the TRS policy and distributed around the main urban area of Beijing, and on the hourly sequential meteorological data from a representative Observatory. Subsequently, we used the predictions and observations at a roadside air quality monitoring site to evaluate the model, based on a widely used statistical framework for model evaluation, as well as on the dependence of model performance on time-of-the-day and on wind direction, and the model predictions turned out satisfactory. Results showed that daily average concentrations on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th RR and LRs during the TRS period decreased significantly, by about 35.8%, 38.5%, 34.9% and 35.6% for CO, about 38.7%, 31.8%, 44.0% and 34.7% for PM10, about 30.3%, 31.9%, 32.3% and 33.9% for NO2, and about 36.7%, 33.0%, 33.4% and 34.7% for O3, respectively, compared with the pre-TRS period. Besides, hourly average concentrations were also reduced significantly, particularly for the morning and evening peaks for CO and PM10, for the evening peak for NO2, and for the afternoon peak for O3. Consequently, both the daily and hourly concentration level of CO, PM10, NO2 and O3 conformed to the CNAAQS (China National Ambient Air Quality Standards) Grade II during the Games. Besides, a notable ozone weekend effect was revealed

  7. A modelling study of air quality impact of odd-even day traffic restriction scheme before, during and after the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Systematic air pollution control measures were designed and implemented to improve air quality for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. This study focuses on the evaluation of the air quality impacts of a short-term odd-even day traffic restriction scheme (TRS implemented before, during and after the Games, based on modelling simulation by a well validated urban-scale air quality model. Concentration levels of CO, PM10, NO2 and O3 were predicted for the pre- (10–19 July, during- (20 July–20 September and post-TRS (21–30 September periods, based on the on-line monitored traffic flows on a total of 334 road segments constituting the 2nd, 3rd, 4th Ring Roads (RR and the major Linkage Roads (LRs that were subject to the TRS policy and distributed around the main urban area of Beijing, and on the hourly sequential meteorological data from a representative Observatory. Subsequently, we used the predictions and observations at a roadside air quality monitoring site to evaluate the model, based on a widely used statistical framework for model evaluation, as well as on the dependence of model performance on time-of-the-day and on wind direction, and the model predictions turned out satisfactory. Results showed that daily average concentrations on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th RR and LRs during the TRS period decreased significantly, by about 35.8%, 38.5%, 34.9% and 35.6% for CO, about 38.7%, 31.8%, 44.0% and 34.7% for PM10, about 30.3%, 31.9%, 32.3% and 33.9% for NO2, and about 36.7%, 33.0%, 33.4% and 34.7% for O3, respectively, compared with the pre-TRS period. Besides, hourly average concentrations were also reduced significantly, particularly for the morning and evening peaks for CO and PM10, for the evening peak for NO2, and for the afternoon peak for O3. Consequently, both the daily and hourly concentration level of CO, PM10, NO2 and O3

  8. Slimmed May Day Holiday

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Xinwen

    2008-01-01

    @@ Last November the State Council of China decided to renew its holiday system by reducing the seven-day Mav Dav holiday to three days and introducing three new one-day public holidays,namely the Qingming Festival,Dragon Boat Festival and Moon Festival.BY doing so,the three golden-week holidays that were introduced in 1999,namely the Spring Festival,Mav Dav and National Day,could be better distributed.The New Year's Eve holiday would remain one day.The new holiday plan was supposed to take effect in 2008.

  9. Present-day cosmic abundances. A comprehensive study of nearby early B-type stars and implications for stellar and Galactic evolution and interstellar dust models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieva, M.-F.; Przybilla, N.

    2012-03-01

    Context. Early B-type stars are ideal indicators for present-day cosmic abundances since they preserve their pristine abundances and typically do not migrate far beyond their birth environments over their short lifetimes, in contrast to older stars like the Sun. They are also unaffected by depletion onto dust grains, unlike the cold/warm interstellar medium (ISM) or H ii regions. Aims: A carefully selected sample of early B-type stars in OB associations and the field within the solar neighbourhood is studied comprehensively. Quantitative spectroscopy is used to characterise their atmospheric properties in a self-consistent way. Present-day abundances for the astrophysically most interesting chemical elements are derived in order to investigate whether a present-day cosmic abundance standard can be established. Methods: High-resolution and high-S/N FOCES, FEROS and ELODIE spectra of well-studied sharp-lined early B-type stars are analysed in non-LTE. Line-profile fits based on extensive model grids and an iterative analysis methodology are used to constrain stellar parameters and elemental abundances at high accuracy and precision. Atmospheric parameters are derived from the simultaneous establishment of independent indicators, from multiple ionization equilibria and the Stark-broadened hydrogen Balmer lines, and they are confirmed by reproduction of the stars' global spectral energy distributions. Results: Effective temperatures are constrained to 1-2% and surface gravities to less than 15% uncertainty, along with accurate rotational, micro- and macroturbulence velocities. Good agreement of the resulting spectroscopic parallaxes with those from the new reduction of the Hipparcos catalogue is obtained. Absolute values for abundances of He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si and Fe are determined to better than 25% uncertainty. The synthetic spectra match the observations reliably over almost the entire visual spectral range. Three sample stars, γ Ori, o Per and θ1 Ori D, are

  10. Degree-degree dependencies in random graphs with heavy-tailed degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstad, van der Remco; Litvak, Nelly

    2014-01-01

    Mixing patterns in large self-organizing networks, such as the Internet, the World Wide Web, social, and biological networks are often characterized by degree-degree dependencies between neighboring nodes. In assortative networks, the degree-degree dependencies are positive (nodes with similar degre

  11. Degree-Degree Dependencies in Random Graphs with Heavy-Tailed Degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hofstad, Remco; Litvak, Nelli

    2014-01-01

    Mixing patterns in large self-organizing networks, such as the Internet, the World Wide Web, social, and biological networks are often characterized by degree-degree dependencies between neighboring nodes. In assortative networks, the degree-degree dependencies are positive (nodes with similar

  12. 将数学建模思想融入大学本科数学基础课程%Applying the Idea of Mathematical Modeling into the Basic Maths Courses of Bachelor's Degree

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜文彪

    2013-01-01

    Combined with teaching practice and through three concrete examples, this paper discusses how to apply the idea of mathematical modeling in the teaching of mathematics courses of the bachelor's degree.%  文章结合教学实践,通过三个具体的实例,探讨了如何在大学本科数学基础课教学中融入数学建模思想。

  13. General Rushes Open Days Day II

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    General Footage during the Open Days 2013 (Day 2 -29/09/2013) Images: Antoine Nouel, Clément Sbaffe, Victor Prunier, David Guerazzi, Basile Manent, Réemi Richarme, Noemi Caraban 00:00:00 00:08:56 Interviews 00:08:56 00:20:47 ALICE 00:20:47 00:26:52 ATLAS 00:26:52 00:28:07 Workshops 00:28:07 00:33:13 Crystal Lab 00:33:13 00:44:19 Superconductivity 00:44:19 01:04:42 Cryogenics 01:04:42 01:12:39 Transports 01:12:39 01:16:30 LEIR 01:16:30 01:18:28 LMF 01:18:28 01:19:50 Vacuum 01:19:50 01:36:39 Superconducting magnets (F1) 01:36:39 01:46:06 The idea filled world of vacuum (F2) 01:46:06 01:49:55 CCC 01:49:55 01:52:41 Safety Training Center 01:52:41 01:55:00 COMPASS 01:55:00 02:09:19 Robotics 02:09:19 02:18:36 LHC Point 6 (with DG) 02:18:36 02:25:16 LHC Point 4 02:25:16 02:29:29 LHCb 02:29:29 02:33:12 Control Center 02:33:12 02:39:57 Streets

  14. Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model and Its Properties Based on Exponential Supporting Degree%基于指数支撑度的最优组合预测模型及其性质研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁宏俊; 陈华友; 胡凌云

    2012-01-01

    Based on the definition of supporting degree, we put forward the definitions of average index-supporting degree and average dispersion, and we build an optimal combination forecasting model based on exponential supporting degree. We also give its equivalent average dispersion optimal combination forecasting model. We propose the conception of superior combination forecasting, we obtain the results, including the sufficient conditions for the existing non-inferior and superior combination forecasting, redundant forecasting and the redundant information determination. Finally, we give the example to show that the model is effective.%在支撑度定义的基础上,提出平均指数支撑度、平均离散度等概念,构建了平均指数支撑度最优组合预测模型,并考虑其等价的平均离散度最优组合预测模型.针对该模型,提出优性组合预测等概念,给出了非劣性组合预测和优性组合预测存在的充分条件、冗余预测方法的存在性和冗余信息的判定等结果,最后的实例说明了该模型的有效性.

  15. Open Day at SHMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarosova, M.

    2010-09-01

    During the World Meteorological Day there has been preparing "Open Day" at Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. This event has more than 10 years traditions. "Open Day" is one of a lot of possibilities to give more information about meteorology, climatology, hydrology too to public. This "Day" is executed in whole Slovakia. People can visit the laboratories, the forecasting room....and meteo and clima measuring points. The most popular is visiting forecasting room. Visitors are interested in e.g. climatologic change in Slovakia territory, preparing weather forecasting, dangerous phenomena.... Every year we have more than 500 visitors.

  16. Rethinking the Bachelor Degree Course

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Anne Elisabeth; Gammelgaard Nielsen, Anders

    2011-01-01

    The text contains reflections on the background for rethinking the bachelor degree course at the Aarhus School of Architecture.......The text contains reflections on the background for rethinking the bachelor degree course at the Aarhus School of Architecture....

  17. Beyond the Syllabus: Using the First Day of Class in Physical Chemistry as an Introduction to the Development of Macroscopic, Molecular-Level, and Mathematical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Chrystal D.

    2013-01-01

    The initial interaction among student, instructor, and content on the first day of class is critical in setting the stage for the remainder of the semester. While many students would like to ease into the semester, experienced faculty realize that the first day of class provides a one-time opportunity to shape the students' first impression…

  18. Beyond the Syllabus: Using the First Day of Class in Physical Chemistry as an Introduction to the Development of Macroscopic, Molecular-Level, and Mathematical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Chrystal D.

    2013-01-01

    The initial interaction among student, instructor, and content on the first day of class is critical in setting the stage for the remainder of the semester. While many students would like to ease into the semester, experienced faculty realize that the first day of class provides a one-time opportunity to shape the students' first impression…

  19. Ecological Effects of the Invasive Giant Madagascar Day Gecko on Endemic Mauritian Geckos: Applications of Binomial-Mixture and Species Distribution Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buckland, S.; Cole, N.C.; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Gallagher, L.E.; Henshaw, S.M.; Besnard, A.; Tucker, R.M.; Bachraz, V.; Ruhomaun, K.; Harris, S.

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos

  20. General Rushes Open Days Day I

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    General Footage during Open Days 2013 (Day 1 -28/09/2013) Images: Cameramen: Antoine Nouel, Clément Sbaffe, Victor Prunier, David Guerazzi, Basile Manent, Réemi Richarme, Noemi Caraban 00:00:00 00:03:40 Interviews 00:03:40 00:06:54 Beam Instrumentation 00:06:54 00:07:16 Globe 00:07:16 00:10:28 Microcosme 00:10:28 00:12:59 Lectures 00:12:59 00:27:52 Fun with physics 00:27:52 00:28:19 International Village 00:28:19 00:34:18 Fun Zone 00:34:18 00:47:50 ATLAS Surface 00:47:50 00:56:57 ATLAS underground 00:56:57 00:58:53 Detector technologies 00:58:53 01:04:39 CLIC 01:04:39 01:05:56 CMS surface 01:05:56 01:09:32 LINAC 2-3 01:09:32 01:15:29 LINAC 4 01:15:29 01:20:41 Computer Center 01:20:41 01:25:53 Clubs 01:25:53 01:31:49 Beam Instrumentation 01:31:49 01:35:27 Music Festival 01:35:27 01:37:31 SPS 01:37:31 01:46:13 CCC 01:46:13 01:48:24 Safety Trainig Center 01:48:24 01:52:38 COMPASS 01:52:38 01:56:09 EHN1 01:56:09 02:01:42 AMS 02:01:42 02:10:52 Robotics 02:10:52 02:22:48 LHC Point 4 02:22:48 02:23:48 Control Cent...