WorldWideScience

Sample records for degree day model

  1. Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic model to estimate the energy performance of buildings is presented. • The model is validated against leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. • Modified degree days are introduced to account for solar irradiation effects. - Abstract: Degree days represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in building energy performance analysis. In this context, the present paper proposes a simple dynamic model to simulate heating/cooling energy consumption in buildings. The model consists of several transient energy balance equations for external walls and internal air according to a lumped-capacitance approach and it has been implemented utilizing the Matlab/Simulink® platform. Results are validated by comparison to the outcomes of leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. By using the above mentioned model, energy consumption for heating/cooling is analyzed in different locations, showing that for low degree days the inertia effect assumes a paramount importance, affecting the common linear behavior of the building consumption against the standard degree days, especially for cooling energy demand. Cooling energy demand at low cooling degree days (CDDs) is deeply analyzed, highlighting that in this situation other factors, such as solar irradiation, have an important role. To take into account these effects, a correction to CDD is proposed, demonstrating that by considering all the contributions the linear relationship between energy consumption and degree days is maintained

  2. Optimizing biocontrol using phenological day degree models: the European earwig in pipfruit orchards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moerkens, R.; Gobin, B.; Peusens, G.; Helsen, H.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    1 Phenological day degree models are often used as warning systems for the emergence of arthropod pests in agricultural crops or the occurrence of natural enemies of the pest species. In the present study, we report on a case study of the European earwig Forficula auricularia L., which is an

  3. Logistic growth models of China pinks, cultivated on seven substrates, as a function of degree days

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Milani

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to characterize the height (H and leaf number (LN of China pinks, grown in seven substrates, as a function of degree days, using the logistic growth model. H and LN were measured from 56 plants per substrate, for 392 plants in total. Plants that were grown on substrates formed of 50% soil with 50% rice husk ash (50% S + 50% RH and 80% rice husk ash with 20% worm castings (80% RH + 20% W had the longest vegetative growth period (74d, corresponding to 1317.9ºCd. The logistic growth model, adjusted for H, showed differences in the estimation of maximum expected height (α between the substrates, with values between 10.47cm for 50% S + 50% RH and 35.75cm for Mecplant(r. When α was estimated as LN, variation was also observed between the different substrates, from approximately 30 leaves on plants growing on 50% S + 50% RH to 34 leaves on the plants growing on the substrate formed of 80% RH + 20% W. Growth of China pinks can be characterized using H or LN in the logistic growth model as a function of degree days, being the provided plants adequately fertilized. The best substrates in terms of maximum height and leaf number were 80% soil + 20% worm castings and Mecplant(r. However, users must recalibrate the model with the estimated parameters before applying it to different growing conditions.

  4. Improving the degree-day model for forecasting Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen (Orthoptera: Acridoidea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiongbing Tu

    Full Text Available The degree-day (DD model is an important tool for forecasting pest phenology and voltinism. Unfortunately, the DD model is inaccurate, as is the case for the Oriental migratory locust. To improve the existing DD model for this pest, we first studied locust development in seven growth chambers, each of which simulated the complete growing-season climate of a specific region in China (Baiquan, Chengde, Tumotezuoqi, Wenan, Rongan, Qiongzhong, or Qiongshan. In these seven treatments, locusts completed 0.95, 1, 1.1, 2.2, 2.95, 3.95, and 4.95 generations, respectively. Hence, in the Baiquan (700, Rongan (2400, Qiongzhong (3200, and Qiongshan (2400 treatments, the final generation were unable to lay eggs. In a second experiment, we reared locusts for a full generation in growth chambers, at different constant temperatures. This experiment provided two important findings. First, temperatures between 32 and 42°C did not influence locust development rate. Hence, the additional heat provided by temperatures above 32°C did not add to the total heat units acquired by the insects, according to the traditional DD model. Instead, temperatures above 32°C represent overflow heat, and can not be included when calculating total heat acquired during development. We also noted that females raised at constant 21°C failed to oviposit. Hence, temperatures lower than 21°C should be deducted when calculating total heat acquired during adult development. Using our experimental findings, we next micmiked 24-h temperature curve and constructed a new DD model based on a 24-h temperature integral calculation. We then compared our new model with the traditional DD model, results showed the DD deviation was 166 heat units in Langfang during 2011. At last we recalculated the heat by our new DD model, which better predicted the results from our first growth chamber experiment.

  5. Modeling of gas demand using degree-day concept: case study for Ankara

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumrah, F.; Katircioglu, D.; Aykan, Y.; Okumus, S.; Kilincer, N.

    2001-01-01

    The demand for natural gas is rapidly increasing in Turkey, as it is in the rest of the world. However, natural gas reserves and production are rather limited in Turkey.The bulk of the Turkish gas demand is met by imports. Russia currently accounts for 69% of Turkey's gas supplies. Physical shortages might occur; supplies for industrial production and household consumption could temporarily run short. Also, fluctuations in consumption might occur due to climatic reasons or peak daily industrial energy demand. Underground gas storage is a necessity in order to regulate these seasonal, daily, and hourly fluctuations. In order to effectively design and utilize underground gas storage, it is necessary to identify the market requirements. In this study, Ankara was chosen as a pilot region due to its strategical importance of being the capital city of Turkey, and a wide range of marketing surveys for the last seven years was performed. All of the factors influencing the gas consumption and the relationships between these factors were analyzed. How does gas demand behave in extremely cold weather? How does the industrial part of the city act in the consumption behavior? What are the plans of the Municipality of Ankara, responsible for the execution of the natural gas distribution project in Ankara? A model was developed based on degree-day (DD) concept, including the annual number of customers, average DDs, and the usage per customer. A history matching study was performed to verify the results of the model with the measured consumption data for the last seven years. Comparisons showed that the calculated consumption by DD model and measured daily consumption were in good agreement. Finally, by using the developed approach, the gas demand was forecasted for Ankara up to 2005. The results of this study can be used to design underground gas storage facility near Ankara. (author)

  6. Degree-day model for timing insecticide applications to control Dioryctria amatella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in loblolly pine seed orchards

    Science.gov (United States)

    James L. Hanula; Gary L. DeBarr; Julie C. Weatherby; Larry R. Barber; C. Wayne Berisford

    2002-01-01

    Because Dioryctria amatella (Hulst) is a key pest in loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L. (Pinaceac), seed orchards in the southeastern United States, improved timing of insecticide applications would be valuable for its control. To time two fenvalerate (Pydrin® 2.4 EC) applications we tested four variations of a degree day model that...

  7. A degree-day model initiated by pheromone trap captures for managing pecan nut casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in pecans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Allen E; Muegge, Mark A

    2010-06-01

    Field observations from pecan, Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) Koch, orchards in Texas were used to develop and validate a degree-day model of cumulative proportional adult flight and oviposition and date of first observed nut entry by larvae of the first summer generation of the pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Nuenzig (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). The model was initiated on the date of first sustained capture of adults in pheromone traps. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to determine the sum of degree-days from onset to 99% moth flight and oviposition and the date on which first summer generation larvae were first observed penetrating pecan nuts. Cumulative proportional oviposition (y) was described by a modified Gompertz equation, y = 106.05 x exp(-(exp(3.11 - 0.00669 x (x - 1), with x = cumulative degree-days at a base temperature of 3.33 degrees C. Cumulative proportional moth flight (y) was modeled as y = 102.62 x exp(- (exp(1.49 - 0.00571 x (x - 1). Model prediction error for dates of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90% cumulative oviposition was 1.3 d and 83% of the predicted dates were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. Prediction error for date of first observed nut entry was 2.2 d and 77% of model predictions were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. The model provides ample lead time for producers to implement orchard scouting to assess pecan nut casebearer infestations and to apply an insecticide if needed to prevent economic loss.

  8. The development of the asparagus miner (Ophiomyia simplex Loew; Diptera: Agromyzidae) in temperate zones: a degree-day model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, William R; Andresen, Jeffrey; Szendrei, Zsofia

    2014-07-01

    The asparagus miner is a putative vector of Fusarium spp., which have been implicated in globally declining asparagus production. Growers currently apply broad-spectrum insecticides for the asparagus miner, but lack management guidelines for adequately controlling the pest. Our aims were (1) to determine the lower developmental threshold of the asparagus miner, (2) develop and validate a degree-day model describing its phenology, and (3) create a developmental time budget for the asparagus miner to help guide growers' management decisions. We found that the lower developmental threshold for the asparagus miner was 12.1 °C, and that the phenology of the asparagus miner could be reliably predicted over the course of a two-year study. Predictions from the model match well with previously published information on the bionomics of the asparagus miner, but fit better for sampling data collected from the midwestern and eastern United States than for the United Kingdom. The life cycle of the asparagus miner likely requires between 1500 and 2000 degree-days to complete; the longest developmental time requirement was for the pupal stagen This study provides tools for the targeted management of the asparagus miner by offering a degree-day model that may be used to predict its life stages in the north-eastern United States. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

    2017-12-01

    Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

  10. Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

    2015-12-01

    The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

  11. Degree-Day Prediction Models for the Flight Phenology of Western Bean Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Assessed with the Concordance Correlation Coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, A A; Moon, R D; Wright, R J; Hunt, T E; Hutchison, W D

    2015-08-01

    Western bean cutworm, Striacosta albicosta (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a native, univoltine pest of corn and dry beans in North America. The current degree-day model for predicting a specified percentage of yearly moth flight involves heat unit accumulation above 10°C after 1 May. However, because the moth's observed range has expanded into the northern and eastern United States, there is concern that suitable temperatures before May could allow for significant S. albicosta development. Daily blacklight moth catch and temperature data from four Nebraska locations were used to construct degree-day models using simple or sine-wave methods, starting dates between 1 January and 1 May, and lower (-5 to 15°C) and upper (20 to 43.3°C) developmental thresholds. Predicted dates of flight from these models were compared with observed flight dates using independent datasets to assess model performance. Model performance was assessed with the concordance correlation coefficient to concurrently evaluate precision and accuracy. The best model for predicting timing of S. albicosta flight used simple degree-day calculations beginning on 1 March, a 3.3°C (38°F) lower threshold, and a 23.9°C (75°F) upper threshold. The revised cumulative flight model indicated field scouting to estimate moth egg density at the time of 25% flight should begin when 1,432 degree-days (2,577 degree-days °F) have accumulated. These results underscore the importance of assessing multiple parameters in phenological models and utilizing appropriate assessment methods, which in this case may allow for improved timing of field scouting for S. albicosta. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Evaluation of predicted Medfly (Ceratitis capitata quarantine length in the United States utilizing degree-day and agent-based models [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Travis Collier

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Invasions by pest insects pose a significant threat to agriculture worldwide. In the case of Ceratitis capitata incursions on the US mainland, where it is not officially established, repeated detections are followed by quarantines and treatments to eliminate the invading population. However, it is difficult to accurately set quarantine duration because non-detection may not mean the pest is eliminated. Most programs extend quarantine lengths past the last fly detection by calculating the amount of time required for 3 generations to elapse under a thermal unit accumulation development model (“degree day”. A newer approach is to use an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS to explicitly simulate population demographics and elimination. Here, predicted quarantine lengths for 11 sites in the continental United States are evaluated using both approaches. Results indicate a strong seasonality in quarantine length, with longer predictions in the second half of the year compared with the first; this pattern is more extreme in degree day predictions compared with ABS. Geographically, quarantine lengths increased with latitude, though this was less pronounced under the ABS. Variation in quarantine lengths for particular times and places was dramatically larger for degree day than ABS, generally spiking in the middle of the year for degree day and peaking in second half of the year for ABS. Analysis of 34 C. capitata quarantines from 1975 to 2017 in California shows that, for all but two, quarantines were started in the second half of the year, when degree day quarantine lengths are longest and have the highest uncertainty. For a set of hypothetical outbreaks based on these historical quarantines, the ABS produced significantly shorter quarantines than degree day calculations. Overall, ABS quarantine lengths were more consistent than degree day predictions, avoided unrealistically long values, and captured effects of rare events such as cold snaps.

  13. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

    2016-09-15

    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (prisk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (prisk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright

  14. Model Development to Predict Phenological scale of Table Grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe using Growing Degree Days

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Verdugo-Vásquez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Phenological models have been made mainly for winegrape cultivars, despite the economic importance of table grapes. The aim of this work was to develop and validate models for predicting phenological scales of table grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe grown under semi-arid conditions. Measurements of phenology were carried out weekly from budburst to harvest during four growing seasons (2009-2013. Phenology models were developed using the Mitscherlich monomolecular equation where the dependent and independent variables were the Eichhorn and Lorenz phenological (ELP scale modified by Coombe and the growing degree days (GDD, respectively. Results indicated that there were strong non-linear correlations between the ELP scale and GDD for the four cultivars with coefficient of determinations (R2 ranging between 0.97-0.99. Also, validation indicated that the models were able to predict ELP scale with a root mean square (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE ranging between 2.1-2.4 and 1.35-1.69, respectively. The prediction variability (expressed in days was between 4.4-19.4 days, obtaining the best results for the flowering period. This study suggested that the phenological models based on GDD could be useful planning tools for farming, especially from budburst to veraison of table grape cultivars.

  15. Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prixia Nieto

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

  16. Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, Sergii; Franch, Belen; Vermote, Eric; Roger, Jean-Claude; Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Justice, Christopher; Kussul, Nataliia

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

  17. Climate Prediction Center Weekly Corn Growing Degree Days

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A corn growing degree day (GDD) is an index used to express crop maturity. The index is computed by subtracting a base temperature of 50?F from the average of the...

  18. Change in Annual Heating and Cooling Degree Days by State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This service show changes in heating and cooling degree days by state in the US. Both layers in this service were created by comparing the first 60 years of...

  19. Can Growing Degree Days and Photoperiod Predict Spring Wheat Phenology?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad A. Aslam

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Wheat (Triticum aestivum production in the rainfed area of Pothwar Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to high temperature. The expected increase in temperature due to global warming should result in shorter crop life cycles, and thus lower biomass and grain yield. Two major factors control wheat phenological development: temperature and photoperiod. To evaluate wheat development in response to these factors, we conducted experiments that created diverse temperature and daylength conditions by adjusting the crop sowing time. The study was conducted during 2013–14 and 2014–15 using five spring wheat genotypes, four sowing times, at three sites under rainfed management in Pothwar, Pakistan. Wheat crops experienced more cold days with early sowing, but later sowing dates resulted in higher temperatures, especially from anthesis to maturity. These treatments produced large differences in phenology, biomass production, and yield. To investigate whether growing degree days (GDD and photoperiod algorithms could predict wheat phenology under these changing conditions, GDD was calculated based on the method proposed by Wang and Engel while photoperiod followed the approach introduced in the APSIM crop growth model. GDD was calculated separately and in combination with photoperiod from germination to anthesis. For the grain filling period, only GDD was calculated. The observed and predicted number of days to anthesis and maturity were in good agreement, showing that the combination of GDD and photoperiod algorithms provided good estimations of spring wheat phenology under variable temperature and daylength conditions.

  20. Evaluation of predicted Medfly (Ceratitis capitata quarantine length in the United States utilizing degree-day and agent-based models [version 2; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Travis Collier

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Invasions by pest insects pose a significant threat to agriculture worldwide. In the case of Ceratitis capitata incursions on the US mainland, where it is not officially established, repeated detections are followed by quarantines and treatments to eliminate the invading population. However, it is difficult to accurately set quarantine duration because non-detection may not mean the pest is eliminated. Most programs extend quarantine lengths past the last fly detection by calculating the amount of time required for 3 generations to elapse under a thermal unit accumulation development model (“degree day”. A newer approach is to use an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS to explicitly simulate population demographics and elimination. Here, predicted quarantine lengths for 11 sites in the continental United States are evaluated using both approaches. Results indicate a strong seasonality in quarantine length, with longer predictions in the second half of the year compared with the first; this pattern is more extreme in degree day predictions compared with ABS. Geographically, quarantine lengths increased with latitude, though this was less pronounced under the ABS. Variation in quarantine lengths for particular times and places was dramatically larger for degree day than ABS, generally spiking in the middle of the year for degree day and peaking in second half of the year for ABS. Analysis of 34 C. capitata quarantines from 1975 to 2017 in California shows that, for all but two, quarantines were started in the second half of the year, when degree day quarantine lengths are longest and have the highest uncertainty. For a set of hypothetical outbreaks based on these historical quarantines, the ABS produced significantly shorter quarantines than degree day calculations. Overall, ABS quarantine lengths were more consistent than degree day predictions, avoided unrealistically long values, and captured effects of rare events such as cold snaps.

  1. Effect of growing degree days on autumn planted sunflower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) having high degree of adaptability under wide range of climatic conditions, allow the crop to be productive in broad range of environments. Field experiments in autumn were laid out at Pir Mehr Ali Shah, Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Pakistan for two years (2007 and 2008), ...

  2. Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

  3. Degree Day Requirements for Kudzu Bug (Hemiptera: Plataspidae), a Pest of Soybeans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Jessica I; Lamp, William O

    2018-04-02

    Understanding the phenology of a new potential pest is fundamental for the development of a management program. Megacopta cribraria Fabricius (Hemiptera: Plataspidae), kudzu bug, is a pest of soybeans first detected in the United States in 2009 and in Maryland in 2013. We observed the phenology of kudzu bug life stages in Maryland, created a Celsius degree-day (CDD) model for development, and characterized the difference between microhabitat and ambient temperatures of both kudzu, Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr. (Fabales: Fabaceae) and soybeans, Glycine max (L.) Merrill (Fabales: Fabaceae). In 2014, low population numbers yielded limited resolution from field phenology observations. We observed kudzu bug populations persisting within Maryland; but between 2013 and 2016, populations were low compared to populations in the southeastern United States. Based on the degree-day model, kudzu bug eggs require 80 CDD at a minimum temperature of 14°C to hatch. Nymphs require 545 CDD with a minimum temperature of 16°C for development. The CDD model matches field observations when factoring a biofix date of April 1 and a minimum preoviposition period of 17 d. The model suggests two full generations per year in Maryland. Standard air temperature monitors do not affect model predictions for pest management, as microhabitat temperature differences did not show a clear trend between kudzu and soybeans. Ultimately, producers can predict the timing of kudzu bug life stages with the CDD model for the use of timing management plans in soybean fields.

  4. Heating- and growing-degree days at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, 1976-1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jay, P.C.; Wildsmith, D.P.

    1981-05-01

    An update of the report, Heating- and Growing-Degree-Days at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories (AECL-5547) is presented along with various other meteorological variables which were not included in the previous publication. Also included, and shown in graph form, are the monthly degree-day frequencies. (author)

  5. Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-08-04

    Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

  6. Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

  7. Photoperiod and growing degree days effect on dry matter partitioning in Jerusalem artichoke

    Science.gov (United States)

    The effect of photoperiod and growing degree days (GDD) on dry matter and dry partitioning in Jerusalem artichoke was investigated during 2008-09 and 2009-10. Three Jerusalem artichoke genotypes (CN-52867, JA-89 and HEL-65) were planted in 15 day-intervals between with thirteen different dates (Sep...

  8. Use of belowground growing degree days to predict rooting of dormant hardwood cuttings of Populus

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.S., Jr. Zalesny; E.O. Bauer; D.E. Riemenschneider

    2004-01-01

    Planting Populus cuttings based on calendar days neglects soil temperature extremes and does not promote rooting based on specific genotypes. Our objectives were to: 1) test the biological efficacy of a thermal index based on belowground growing degree days (GDD) across the growing period, 2) test for interactions between belowground GDD and clones,...

  9. Effectiveness of short-term numerical weather prediction in predicting growing degree days and meteorological conditions for apple scab appearance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lalic, B.; Francia, M.; Eitzinger, Josef; Podrascanin, Z.; Arsenic, I.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2016), s. 50-56 ISSN 1350-4827 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : venturia-inaequalis * temperature * equation * schemes * model * numerical weather prediction * disease prediction * verification * apple scab * growing degree days Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.411, year: 2016

  10. Response of stored potato seed tubers from contrasting cultivars to accumulated day-degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struik, P.C.; Putten, van der P.E.L.; Caldiz, D.O.; Scholte, K.

    2006-01-01

    In potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), the accumulated day-degrees (temperature sum, calculated by accumulating the daily temperatures) from dormancy break until seed tuber use has been suggested as an indicator of the physiological status of the seed. We tested whether similar temperature sums differing

  11. Infinite-degree-corrected stochastic block model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    In stochastic block models, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman [Karrer and Newman...... corrected stochastic block model as a nonparametric Bayesian model, incorporating a parameter to control the amount of degree correction that can then be inferred from data. Additionally, our formulation yields principled ways of inferring the number of groups as well as predicting missing links...

  12. Historical trends and current state of heating and cooling degree days in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A comparison among methods for calculating heating degree-days (HDD) is provided. • ASHRAE method is used for analyze the historical trends of HDD and CDD in Italy. • The HDD historical profile for Rome is decomposed in its characterizing components. - Abstract: Degree days (DD) represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in the analysis of building energy performance, as e.g. (i) to perform energetic assessment of existent and new buildings, (ii) to analyze the territory energy consumption, (iii) to develop scenario analyses in terms of energy consumption forecasting, and so on. Different methods can be used for determining the DD values, depending on the available climatic data of each location. In the present paper, the simplified methods based on reduced climatic data set have been compared assuming the mean daily degree-hours method (MDDH) as reference. Hourly temperature profiles recorded by the meteorological station located at the University of Genoa have been used for these analyses. In the second part of the present work, the ASHRAE method has been selected to calculate heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree days for several Italian cities. In particular, daily meteorological data of several Italian cities (covering the whole climatic conditions which occur in Italy) have been used to calculate heating and cooling degree days in the period 1978–2013, in order to analyze their trends in the last years. Finally, the historical profiles of Rome and Milan have been treated as time-series and analyzed in the frequency domain, performing a decomposition of the original data set into different characterizing components. This simplified approach permits to deeply analyze the historical profile of DD and represents a simple starting point method for future analyses with forecasting perspectives

  13. Comparison of eight degree-days estimation methods in four agroecological regions in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Rodríguez Caicedo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Eight methods were used to estimate degree-days in four Colombian localities. Four methods have been previously proposed in literature: Simple Sine, Double Sine, Simple Triangle, and Double Triangle methods. The other four methods are proposed in this research: Simple Logistic, Double Logistic, Simple Normal, and Double Normal. The estimation of the degree-days through hourly temperature values was used as the reference standard method, and the four localities from where the temperature values were taken were the municipalities of Cajicá (Cundinamarca, Santa Elena (Antioquia, Carepa (Urabá Antioqueño, and Ciudad Bolivar (Zona cafetera Antioqueña. Degree-days obtained by all methods under study were compared through linear regression to those obtained by the reference standard method. There were differences in the correlation of each method to the reference when compared within each region and among regions. The Simple Logistic and Double Logistic methods showed the best performance with acceptable R² values and considerably lower bias than the other methods. The poorest fit was found in Cajicá, where the average R² was 0.571. For the regions of Santa Elena and Carepa, the average R² was 0.756 and 0.733. The best fit was found in Ciudad Bolivar, with an average R² of 0.826.

  14. Distribution of Snow and Maximum Snow Water Equivalent Obtained by LANDSAT Data and Degree Day Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, K.; Ochiai, H.; Takeuchi, S.

    1985-01-01

    Maximum snow water equivalence and snowcover distribution are estimated using several LANDSAT data taken in snowmelting season over a four year period. The test site is Okutadami-gawa Basin located in the central position of Tohoku-Kanto-Chubu District. The year to year normalization for snowmelt volume computation on the snow line is conducted by year to year correction of degree days using the snowcover percentage within the test basin obtained from LANDSAT data. The maximum snow water equivalent map in the test basin is generated based on the normalized snowmelt volume on the snow line extracted from four LANDSAT data taken in a different year. The snowcover distribution on an arbitrary day in snowmelting of 1982 is estimated from the maximum snow water equivalent map. The estimated snowcover is compared with the snowcover area extracted from NOAA-AVHRR data taken on the same day. The applicability of the snow estimation using LANDSAT data is discussed.

  15. Spatial distributions of heating, cooling, and industrial degree-days in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, I.; Sosaoglu, B.

    2007-11-01

    The degree-day method is commonly used to estimate energy consumption for heating and cooling in residential, commercial and industrial buildings, as well as in greenhouses, livestock facilities, storage facilities and warehouses. This article presents monthly and yearly averages and spatial distributions of heating, cooling, and industrial degree-days at the base temperatures of 18 °C and 20 °C, 18 °C and 24 °C, and 7 °C and 13 °C, respectively; as well as the corresponding number of days in Turkey. The findings presented here will facilitate the estimation of heating and cooling energy consumption for any residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Turkey, for any period of time (monthly, seasonal, etc.). From this analysis it will also be possible to compare and design alternative building systems in terms of energy efficiencies. If one prefers to use set point temperatures to indicate the resumption of the heating season would also be possible using the provided information in this article. In addition, utility companies and manufacturing/marketing companies of HVAC systems would be able to easily determine the demand, marketing strategies and policies based on the findings in this study.

  16. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  17. Changes In The Heating Degree-days In Norway Due Toglobal Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugen, T. E.; Tveito, O. E.; Hanssen-Bauer, I.

    A continuous spatial representation of temperature improves the possibility topro- duce maps of temperature-dependent variables. A temperature scenario for the period 2021-2050 is obtained for Norway from the Max-Planck-Institute? AOGCM, GSDIO ECHAM4/OPEC 3. This is done by an ?empirical downscaling method? which in- volves the use of empirical links between large-scale fields and local variables to de- duce estimates of the local variables. The analysis is obtained at forty-six sites in Norway. Spatial representation of the anomalies of temperature in the scenario period compared to the normal period (1961-1990) is obtained with the use of spatial interpo- lation in a GIS. The temperature scenario indicates that we will have a warmer climate in Norway in the future, especially during the winter season. The heating degree-days (HDD) is defined as the accumulated Celsius degrees be- tween the daily mean temperature and a threshold temperature. For Scandinavian countries, this threshold temperature is 17 Celsius degrees. The HDD is found to be a good estimate of accumulated cold. It is therefore a useful index for heating energy consumption within the heating season, and thus to power production planning. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures, the length of the heating season and the HDD within this season will decrease in Norway in the future. The calculations of the heating season and the HDD is estimated at grid level with the use of a GIS. The spatial representation of the heating season and the HDD can then easily be plotted. Local information of the variables being analysed can be withdrawn from the spatial grid in a GIS. The variable is prepared for further spatial analysis. It may also be used as an input to decision making systems.

  18. Present and future responses of growing degree days for Crete Island in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-02-01

    Climate affects practically all the physiological processes that determine plant life (IPCC, 2014). A major challenge and objective of the agricultural science is to predict the occurrences of specific physical or biological events. For this reason, flower phenology has been widely used to study the flowering in plant species of economic interest, and in this concept, temperature and heat units have been widely accepted as the most important factors affecting processes leading to flowering. The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). Determination of GDD is useful for achieving a better understanding of the flowering season development in several plant species, and for forecasting when flowering will occur (Paparrizos and Matzarakis, 2017). Temperature and GDD represent two important spatially-dynamic climatic variables, as they both play vital roles in influencing forest development by directly affecting plant functions such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and plant transpiration. Understanding the spatial distribution of GDD is crucial to the practice of sustainable agricultural and forest management, as GDD relates to the integration of growth and provides precise point estimates (Hasan et al., 2007; Matzarakis et al., 2007). The aim of the current study was to estimate and map through downscaling spatial interpolation and multi-linear regression techniques, the future variation of GDD for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, under the A1B and B1 IPCC emission scenarios in relation with the reference periods for Crete Island in Greece. Future temperature data were obtained, validated and analysed from the ENSEMBLES European project. A combination of dynamical and statistical approach was conducted in order to downscale and perform the spatial interpolation of GDD through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that in the future, GDD will be increased and the existing

  19. Characteristics of sperm motility in boar semen diluted in different extenders and stored for seven days at 18 degrees C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estienne, Mark J; Harper, Allen F; Day, Jennifer L

    2007-11-01

    Although numerous extenders exist for diluting boar semen, little research has been conducted comparing commercial extenders with regard to maintaining sperm motility during storage. The objective was to use a computer- assisted sperm analysis system to assess motility of boar spermatozoa diluted in Beltsville Thawing Solution, Merck-III, Androhep-lite, Sperm Aid, MR-A, Modena, X-Cell, VSP, and Vital. Ejaculates from boars (n=10) were collected and sub-samples were diluted (35x10(6) spermatozoa/ml) in the different extenders and stored for seven days at 18 degrees. Extender by day interactions were detected (pextenders. For example, on day 7, the percentages of motile and progressively motile spermatozoa were highest (pextender utilized, but with the exception of Sperm Aid, all extenders maintained a high degree of sperm motility through 7 days of storage.

  20. Modelling the day to day wind variability offshore central Chile at about 30 deg. south

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutllant, J.

    1994-07-01

    Cycles of strengthening and relaxation of the winds offshore 30 degrees S at central Chile, are related to the propagation of coastal-lows, a year-round phenomenon occurring with periodicities of about one in five days. Simple physical modelling of the day to day variability of the alongshore wind component at a coastal strip extending offshore up to the Rossby deformation radius of these wave perturbations, is presented in terms of the relevant horizontal pressure gradients and the ageostrophic components arising from the coastal-low propagation. The results of 5-day composites of 8 wind-events each, at the winter and summer halves of the annual cycle, respectively; lead to a good agreement between the observed phase-lag of the winds with respect to the pressure forcing field, stressing the importance of the ageostrophic wind components at the extremes of the pressure wave perturbation associated with the passage of coastal-lows over the Point Lengua de Vaca (30 15 S) area. A possible contribution of the upwelling-favorable wind enhancement at the time of the pressure rise and subsequent fall, ahead of the coastal-low, is postulated through an upwelling-front low-level jet, that would be carried onshore and closer to the surface by the combination of the enhanced coastal upwelling, the coastal depression of the subsidence inversion base and the coastal ageostrophic wind components during the passage of the leading edge of the coastal lows. (author). 26 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  1. Nitrogen stimulates phenological traits, growth and growing degree days of maize

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammad, H.M.; Ahmad, A.; Farhad, W.; Abbas, F.

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted during 2009 and 2010 to evaluate the effects of nitrogen (N) application timings and rates on phenology of autumn sown maize under semi-arid climatic conditions of Faisalabad, Pakistan. Plant development, growth and yield components were optimized by the N application in three splits; 1/3rd N at V2, 1/3rd N at V16 and 1/3rd N at R1 stages at the rate of 250 kg ha-1. At this rate, the crop achieved more calendar days and thermal time in each growth stage. The treatments T2 (1/3rd N at V2 stage, 1/3rd N at V16 stage and 1/3rd N at R1 stage) and N4 (250 kg N ha-1) accumulated the maximum days to silking and maturity (51 and 102 days, respectively), which resulted in the maximum crop growth rate and grain yield (8.38 t ha/sup -1/). The highest net benefit and marginal rate of return ($1857 and 22%, respectively) were achieved by N/sub 4/ treatment. Therefore, 250 kg N ha-1 with three above mentioned splits of N application may produce optimum grain yield of maize under semi-arid environmental and agricultural conditions similar to those of the reported experiments. (author)

  2. Dual degree partnership in nursing: an innovative undergraduate educational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastable, Susan B; Markowitz, Marianne

    2012-10-01

    We report the success of a unique articulation Dual Degree Partnership in Nursing (DDPN) model. The process used to establish and implement this approach is described. Unlike typical 2+2 agreements between associate degree (AD) and bachelor degree (BS) nursing education programs, the DDPN is designed with a 1+2+1 sequence. Intended to attract high school students, this model provides the opportunity to earn two degrees (AD and BS) while experiencing a 4-year campus living and learning environment. This configuration was accomplished without compromising the integrity of either of the established programs. After collecting data over the past 6 years, this model demonstrates popularity with the traditional-aged student, as well as success from an academic perspective. Statistics on retention, graduation, and NCLEX® pass rates indicate the feasibility and success of the model. Based on the findings, the potential for replication is promising for other colleges interested in a similar collaboration. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

  3. The U2U Corn Growing Degree Day tool: Tracking corn growth across the US Corn Belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Angel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Corn Growing Degree Day (Corn GDD tool is a web-based product that can provide decision support on a variety of issues throughout the entire growing season by integrating current conditions, historical climate data, and projections of Corn GDD through the end of the growing season based on both National Weather Service computer model forecasts and climatology. The Corn GDD tool can help agricultural producers make a variety of important decisions before and during the growing season. This support can include: assessing the risk of early and late frosts and freezes that can cause crop damage; comparing corn hybrid maturity requirements and Corn GDD projections to select seed varieties and plan activities such as spraying; guiding marketing decisions based on historical and projected Corn GDDs when considering forward crop pricing (i.e., futures market. The Corn GDD tool provides decision support for corn producers in the central U.S. corn-producing states. Survey results, web statistics, and user feedback indicate that this tool is being actively used by decision makers.

  4. Venus gravity and topography: 60th degree and order model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopliv, A. S.; Borderies, N. J.; Chodas, P. W.; Christensen, E. J.; Sjogren, W. L.; Williams, B. G.; Balmino, G.; Barriot, J. P.

    1993-01-01

    We have combined the most recent Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) and Magellan (MGN) data with the earlier 1978-1982 PVO data set to obtain a new 60th degree and order spherical harmonic gravity model and a 120th degree and order spherical harmonic topography model. Free-air gravity maps are shown over regions where the most marked improvement has been obtained (Ishtar-Terra, Alpha, Bell and Artemis). Gravity versus topography relationships are presented as correlations per degree and axes orientation.

  5. The role of environmental parameter (degree day of snowmelt runoff simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Nabi*, Muhammad Latif, Habib-ur-Rehman and Aftab Hussain Azhar

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The upper Indus basin comprises the high mountains covered with snow and glaciers. So the major portion of flowfrom Indus basin is due to snow and glacier melt runoff. The terrain is difficult to measure the hydrological andhydraulics data. Most of the data is available at catchments outlets. Due to the data constraints Snowmelt RunoffModel (SRM was used to estimate the snow melt runoff in Astor basin during, year 2000. The input data includeddaily temperature, precipitation and division of catchment in to different zones on the basis of elevation difference.The elevation zones were made from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM of the area. The snow depletion curveswere made by Landsat TM satellite data analysis on the monthly basis. The model output was dischargehydrograph. The model performance was tested by calculating the statistical parameters such as coefficient ofefficiency (COE and volume difference in percentage. The COE for simulation was 0.91 which illustrates a goodrelationship between simulated and measured values of runoff. The volume difference (Dv for simulation was 9.01.The statistical test showed that model performance was good. The results of SRM model encouraged to usetemperature index approach for snowmelt runoff estimation in Indus basin.

  6. Degree distribution of a new model for evolving networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    on intuitive but realistic consideration that nodes are added to the network with both preferential and random attachments. The degree distribution of the model is between a power-law and an exponential decay. Motivated by the features of network evolution, we introduce a new model of evolving networks, incorporating the ...

  7. Comparison of surface mass balance of ice sheets simulated by positive-degree-day method and energy balance approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bauer

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Glacial cycles of the late Quaternary are controlled by the asymmetrically varying mass balance of continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Surface mass balance is governed by processes of ablation and accumulation. Here two ablation schemes, the positive-degree-day (PDD method and the surface energy balance (SEB approach, are compared in transient simulations of the last glacial cycle with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. The standard version of the CLIMBER-2 model incorporates the SEB approach and simulates ice volume variations in reasonable agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions during the entire last glacial cycle. Using results from the standard CLIMBER-2 model version, we simulated ablation with the PDD method in offline mode by applying different combinations of three empirical parameters of the PDD scheme. We found that none of the parameter combinations allow us to simulate a surface mass balance of the American and European ice sheets that is similar to that obtained with the standard SEB method. The use of constant values for the empirical PDD parameters led either to too much ablation during the first phase of the last glacial cycle or too little ablation during the final phase. We then substituted the standard SEB scheme in CLIMBER-2 with the PDD scheme and performed a suite of fully interactive (online simulations of the last glacial cycle with different combinations of PDD parameters. The results of these simulations confirmed the results of the offline simulations: no combination of PDD parameters realistically simulates the evolution of the ice sheets during the entire glacial cycle. The use of constant parameter values in the online simulations leads either to a buildup of too much ice volume at the end of glacial cycle or too little ice volume at the beginning. Even when the model correctly simulates global ice volume at the last glacial maximum (21 ka, it is unable to simulate

  8. Orthostatic Intolerance Is Independent of the Degree of Autonomic Cardiovascular Adaptation after 60 Days of Head-Down Bed Rest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubert, André E.

    2015-01-01

    Spaceflight and head-down bed rest (HDBR) can induce the orthostatic intolerance (OI); the mechanisms remain to be clarified. The aim of this study was to determine whether or not OI after HDBR relates to the degree of autonomic cardiovascular adaptation. Fourteen volunteers were enrolled for 60 days of HDBR. A head-up tilt test (HUTT) was performed before and after HDBR. Our data revealed that, in all nonfainters, there was a progressive increase in heart rate over the course of HDBR, which remained higher until 12 days of recovery. The mean arterial pressure gradually increased until day 56 of HDBR and returned to baseline after 12 days of recovery. Respiratory sinus arrhythmia and baroreflex sensitivity decreased during HDBR and remained suppressed until 12 days of recovery. Low-frequency power of systolic arterial pressure increased during HDBR and remained elevated during recovery. Three subjects fainted during the HUTT after HDBR, in which systemic vascular resistance did not increase and remained lower until syncope. None of the circulatory patterns significantly differed between the fainters and the nonfainters at any time point. In conclusion, our data indicate that the impaired orthostatic tolerance after HDBR could not be distinguished by estimation of normal hemodynamic and/or neurocardiac data. PMID:26425559

  9. Orthostatic Intolerance Is Independent of the Degree of Autonomic Cardiovascular Adaptation after 60 Days of Head-Down Bed Rest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiexin Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Spaceflight and head-down bed rest (HDBR can induce the orthostatic intolerance (OI; the mechanisms remain to be clarified. The aim of this study was to determine whether or not OI after HDBR relates to the degree of autonomic cardiovascular adaptation. Fourteen volunteers were enrolled for 60 days of HDBR. A head-up tilt test (HUTT was performed before and after HDBR. Our data revealed that, in all nonfainters, there was a progressive increase in heart rate over the course of HDBR, which remained higher until 12 days of recovery. The mean arterial pressure gradually increased until day 56 of HDBR and returned to baseline after 12 days of recovery. Respiratory sinus arrhythmia and baroreflex sensitivity decreased during HDBR and remained suppressed until 12 days of recovery. Low-frequency power of systolic arterial pressure increased during HDBR and remained elevated during recovery. Three subjects fainted during the HUTT after HDBR, in which systemic vascular resistance did not increase and remained lower until syncope. None of the circulatory patterns significantly differed between the fainters and the nonfainters at any time point. In conclusion, our data indicate that the impaired orthostatic tolerance after HDBR could not be distinguished by estimation of normal hemodynamic and/or neurocardiac data.

  10. Changes in the timing, length and heating degree days of the heating season in central heating zone of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangjin; Liu, Binhui

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects the demand for energy consumption, especially for heating and cooling buildings. Using daily mean temperature (Tmean) data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of the starting date for heating (HS), ending date for heating (HE), length (HL) and heating degree day (HDD) of the heating season in central heating zone of China. Over China’s central heating zone, regional average HS has become later by 0.97 day per decade and HE has become earlier by 1.49 days per decade during 1960–2011, resulting in a decline of HL (−2.47 days/decade). Regional averaged HDD decreased significantly by 63.22 °C/decade, which implies a decreasing energy demand for heating over the central heating zone of China. Spatially, there are generally larger energy-saving rate in the south, due to low average HDD during the heating season. Over China’s central heating zone, Tmean had a greater effect on HL in warm localities and a greater effect on HDD in cold localities. We project that the sensitivity of HL (HDD) to temperature change will increase (decrease) in a warmer climate. These opposite sensitivities should be considered when we want to predict the effects of climate change on heating energy consumption in China in the future. PMID:27651063

  11. k-Degree Anonymity Model for Social Network Data Publishing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MACWAN, K. R.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Publicly accessible platform for social networking has gained special attraction because of its easy data sharing. Data generated on such social network is analyzed for various activities like marketing, social psychology, etc. This requires preservation of sensitive attributes before it becomes easily accessible. Simply removing the personal identities of the users before publishing data is not enough to maintain the privacy of the individuals. The structure of the social network data itself reveals much information regarding its users and their connections. To resolve this problem, k-degree anonymous method is adopted. It emphasizes on the modification of the graph to provide at least k number of nodes that contain the same degree. However, this approach is not efficient on a huge amount of social data and the modification of the original data fails to maintain data usefulness. In addition to this, the current anonymization approaches focus on a degree sequence-based graph model which leads to major modification of the graph topological properties. In this paper, we have proposed an improved k-degree anonymity model that retain the social network structural properties and also to provide privacy to the individuals. Utility measurement approach for community based graph model is used to verify the performance of the proposed technique.

  12. Copula-based modeling of degree-correlated networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raschke, Mathias; Schläpfer, Markus; Trantopoulos, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    Dynamical processes on complex networks such as information exchange, innovation diffusion, cascades in financial networks or epidemic spreading are highly affected by their underlying topologies as characterized by, for instance, degree–degree correlations. Here, we introduce the concept of copulas in order to generate random networks with an arbitrary degree distribution and a rich a priori degree–degree correlation (or ‘association’) structure. The accuracy of the proposed formalism and corresponding algorithm is numerically confirmed, while the method is tested on a real-world network of yeast protein–protein interactions. The derived network ensembles can be systematically deployed as proper null models, in order to unfold the complex interplay between the topology of real-world networks and the dynamics on top of them. (paper)

  13. Full amplitude models of 15 day Cepheids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cogan, B.C.; Cox, A.N.; King, D.S.

    1980-01-01

    Numerical models of Cepheids have been computed with a range of effective temperatures and compositions. The amplitudes increase if the helium abundance increases or if the effective temperature decreases. The latter effect is contrary to observational data. The models also exhibit velocity amplitudes which are much lower than those observed

  14. Estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) using accumulated degree-days (ADD) in a temperate region of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myburgh, Jolandie; L'Abbé, Ericka N; Steyn, Maryna; Becker, Piet J

    2013-06-10

    The validity of the method in which total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree-days (ADD) are used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) is examined. TBS and ADD were recorded for 232 days in northern South Africa, which has temperatures between 17 and 28 °C in summer and 6 and 20 °C in winter. Winter temperatures rarely go below 0°C. Thirty pig carcasses, which weighed between 38 and 91 kg, were used. TBS was scored using the modified method of Megyesi et al. [1]. Temperature was acquired from an on site data logger and the weather station bureau; differences between these two sources were not statistically significant. Using loglinear random-effects maximum likelihood regression, an r(2) value for ADD (0.6227) was produced and linear regression formulae to estimate PMI from ADD with a 95% prediction interval were developed. The data of 16 additional pigs that were placed a year later were then used to validate the accuracy of this method. The actual PMI and ADD were compared to the estimated PMI and ADD produced by the developed formulae as well as the estimated PMIs within the 95% prediction interval. A validation of the study produced poor results as only one pig of 16 fell within the 95% interval when using the formulae, showing that ADD has limited use in the prediction of PMI in a South African setting. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation and limitations of 34-35 degree 3 day cooling hypothermia in patients with severe traumatic brain injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masaoka, Hiroyuki; Takasato, Yoshio; Hayakawa, Takanori

    2008-01-01

    Since 2000, we adopted mild hypothermia of the present cooling protocol for 3 days at 34-35 degrees to improve outcomes of patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). In the present study, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of this protocol retrospectively. Between 2000 and 2008, a total of 35 patients with severe TBI, 16 to 69 years of age, were enrolled. The initial Glasgow Coma Scale scores (GCS) of all patients ranged from 3 to 13, but many patients' GCS fell down immediately to under 5. All patients had intracranial mass lesions and brain swelling with significant midline shift and underwent hematoma removal operations and craniectomies (subdural hematoma (SDH) 22 cases, contusion 6 and bilateral brain swelling 7). Mild hypothermia was induced by surface cooling and continued 3 days at 34-35degC. Then, the patients were rewarmed at a rate 0.5degC/day. The Glasgow Outcome Scale at discharge indicated that 20 cases had a favorable outcome (57%) and the mortality rate was 20% in all patients. No patient had severe septic complication during the therapy. We found that this protocol did not improve the prognoses of patients aged 51 years and above, those with higher intracranial pressure (ICP) than 30 mmHg immediately after surgery and those with large contusion and diffuse axonal injury (DAI) findings on CT. Also subdural hematomas thicker than 18 mm and midline shift of greater than 16 mm on CT were predictive of a poor outcome. The GCS on admission, the presence of pupillary abnormalities were not predictable factors of outcome. Cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO 2 ) values measured immediately after operations by Xenon-CT, predicted accurately unfavorable outcome. Based on these findings, hypothermia therapy of the present protocol are safe and effective and the age, initial ICP, findings of initial damage and thickness of subdural hematomas or midline shift on CT are predictive factors of outcomes. (author)

  16. High-degree Gravity Models from GRAIL Primary Mission Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Frank G.; Goossens, Sander J.; Sabaka, Terence J.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Mazarico, Erwan; Rowlands, David D.; Loomis, Bryant D.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Caprette, Douglas S.; Neumann, Gregory A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We have analyzed Ka?band range rate (KBRR) and Deep Space Network (DSN) data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) primary mission (1 March to 29 May 2012) to derive gravity models of the Moon to degree 420, 540, and 660 in spherical harmonics. For these models, GRGM420A, GRGM540A, and GRGM660PRIM, a Kaula constraint was applied only beyond degree 330. Variance?component estimation (VCE) was used to adjust the a priori weights and obtain a calibrated error covariance. The global root?mean?square error in the gravity anomalies computed from the error covariance to 320×320 is 0.77 mGal, compared to 29.0 mGal with the pre?GRAIL model derived with the SELENE mission data, SGM150J, only to 140×140. The global correlations with the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter?derived topography are larger than 0.985 between l = 120 and 330. The free?air gravity anomalies, especially over the lunar farside, display a dramatic increase in detail compared to the pre?GRAIL models (SGM150J and LP150Q) and, through degree 320, are free of the orbit?track?related artifacts present in the earlier models. For GRAIL, we obtain an a posteriori fit to the S?band DSN data of 0.13 mm/s. The a posteriori fits to the KBRR data range from 0.08 to 1.5 micrometers/s for GRGM420A and from 0.03 to 0.06 micrometers/s for GRGM660PRIM. Using the GRAIL data, we obtain solutions for the degree 2 Love numbers, k20=0.024615+/-0.0000914, k21=0.023915+/-0.0000132, and k22=0.024852+/-0.0000167, and a preliminary solution for the k30 Love number of k30=0.00734+/-0.0015, where the Love number error sigmas are those obtained with VCE.

  17. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  18. Benchmarking energy performance of residential buildings using two-stage multifactor data envelopment analysis with degree-day based simple-normalization approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Endong; Shen, Zhigang; Alp, Neslihan; Barry, Nate

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Two-stage DEA model is developed to benchmark building energy efficiency. • Degree-day based simple normalization is used to neutralize the climatic noise. • Results of a real case study validated the benefits of this new model. - Abstract: Being able to identify detailed meta factors of energy performance is essential for creating effective residential energy-retrofitting strategies. Compared to other benchmarking methods, nonparametric multifactor DEA (data envelopment analysis) is capable of discriminating scale factors from management factors to reveal more details to better guide retrofitting practices. A two-stage DEA energy benchmarking method is proposed in this paper. This method includes (1) first-stage meta DEA which integrates the common degree day metrics for neutralizing noise energy effects of exogenous climatic variables; and (2) second-stage Tobit regression for further detailed efficiency analysis. A case study involving 3-year longitudinal panel data of 189 residential buildings indicated the proposed method has advantages over existing methods in terms of its efficiency in data processing and results interpretation. The results of the case study also demonstrated high consistency with existing linear regression based DEA.

  19. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  20. Determination of optimum insulation thicknesses of the external walls and roof (ceiling) for Turkey's different degree-day regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sisman, Nuri; Kahya, Emin; Aras, Nil; Aras, Haydar

    2007-01-01

    The external walls and roof of a building are the interface between its interior and the outdoor environment. Insulation of the external walls and roof is the most cost-effective way of controlling the outside elements to make homes more comfortable. Although insulation is generally accepted as a factor increasing the building costs, with the calculations we have shown that this is not the case. Fuel consumption and operational costs are reduced by increasing the thickness of the external walls and roof (ceiling), despite an increase in the investment costs. According to Turkish Standard Number 825 (TS 825), there are four different degree-day (DD) regions, and the required heat loads for the buildings in these regions exhibit large differences. Therefore, a method based on costs is needed for the determination of optimum insulation thicknesses of different DD regions. In this study, optimum insulation thicknesses for different DD regions of Turkey, namely, Izmir (DD: 1450), Bursa (DD: 2203), Eskisehir (DD: 3215) and Erzurum (DD: 4856), have been determined for a lifetime of N years, maximizing the present worth value of annual energy savings for insulated external walls

  1. Venus spherical harmonic gravity model to degree and order 60

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopliv, Alex S.; Sjogren, William L.

    1994-01-01

    The Magellan and Pioneer Venus Orbiter radiometric tracking data sets have been combined to produce a 60th degree and order spherical harmonic gravity field. The Magellan data include the high-precision X-band gravity tracking from September 1992 to May 1993 and post-aerobraking data up to January 5, 1994. Gravity models are presented from the application of Kaula's power rule for Venus and an alternative a priori method using surface accelerations. Results are given as vertical gravity acceleration at the reference surface, geoid, vertical Bouguer, and vertical isostatic maps with errors for the vertical gravity and geoid maps included. Correlation of the gravity with topography for the different models is also discussed.

  2. Dynamic Model of Platform Manipulator with Six Degrees of Freedom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Lapikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers a solution of the relevant tasks related to deriving dynamic equations for the platform manipulators with 6 degrees of freedom. It presents a detailed analysis of the subject area, describes key problems arising in the course of research, and suggests their solution methods. The equations describing dynamics of the mechanical system under discussion were derived using Lagrange equation of the second kind. For this purpose Cartesian coordinates and three Euler angles (angles of precession, nutation and intrinsic rotation describing the orientation of moving frame of reference connected with the platform towards the base were chosen as generalized coordinates of the model. Such choice allowed us to simplify the derivation of the model considerably, because it was possible to represent a dependence of kinetic energy of the mechanical system on the generalized coordinates in an explicit form. In addition, formulation of kinetic energy was supplemented with correlations describing kinetic energy of the mechanism legs. During the derivation of equations for the legs velocities the part of the component defining a rotation movement of the leg against the joint of the base was ignored because of it was small in comparison with the component of linear separation. Besides, during the derivation of equations for kinetic energy of the legs, modified correlations for kinematics of platform manipulators with 6 degrees of freedom suggested in the previous papers of the authors were used.he paper examines a numerical example to solve a reverse dynamic problem in the case of equal harmonic changes of controlling forces. It was found out that under controlling forces described above the platform carries out harmonic advancing movements along the vertical axis.Further planning research concerns the extended capabilities of the model to consider the influence of the working load and to create algorithms for deriving dynamic models of a

  3. Modelling a duopoly market of the day-to-day goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yuriy V.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Management of competitiveness of a production enterprise is directly connected with issues of formation of competitive strategies, which requires a thorough analysis of those components of the enterprise activity, which could become the basis of formation and strengthening of stable competitive advantages. The existing models do not take into account the market infrastructure and, that is why, not quite suitable for being used in the practical activity of a firm in a competitive market. The article develops dynamic models of quantitative and pricing duopolies, which describe activity of firms, which deal with production, storing and selling day-to-day goods. The models allow taking into account interdependence of the current state of the market and current production facilities of enterprises. The proposed models give a possibility of a purposeful selection of strategic behaviour of duopolists. The conducted analysis of strategies of competitive firms revealed significant influence of market characteristics upon results of economic activity of firms.

  4. Modeling Day-to-day Flow Dynamics on Degradable Transport Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Bo; Zhang, Ronghui; Lou, Xiaoming

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic link capacity degradations are common phenomena in transport network which can cause travel time variations and further can affect travelers’ daily route choice behaviors. This paper formulates a deterministic dynamic model, to capture the day-to-day (DTD) flow evolution process in the presence of degraded link capacity degradations. The aggregated network flow dynamics are driven by travelers’ study of uncertain travel time and their choice of risky routes. This paper applies the exponential-smoothing filter to describe travelers’ study of travel time variations, and meanwhile formulates risk attitude parameter updating equation to reflect travelers’ endogenous risk attitude evolution schema. In addition, this paper conducts theoretical analyses to investigate several significant mathematical characteristics implied in the proposed DTD model, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, stability and irreversibility. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTD model and verify some important dynamic system properties. PMID:27959903

  5. Acumulación de Grados-Día en un Cultivo de Pepino (Cucumis sativus L. en un Modelo de Producción Aeropónico Growing Degree Days Accumulation in a Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L. Crop Grown in an Aeroponic Production Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dubián Hoyos García

    2012-06-01

    harvest time and production. The Growing Degree Days (GDD or Heat Units (HU are indexes commonly used for growth and harvest time estimation. In cucumber crops (Cucumis sativus L., the number of days from sowing until harvest significantly changes according to genotype and temperature. In this work we studied some variables which may affect the efficiency and crop production under an aeroponic system. We determined that 726 and 660 GGD corresponding to 73 and 64 days were requires for the commercial matherials Dasher II and Poinsset 76 respectively. The effect of two aspersion time periods of 30 and 60 seconds followed by a four minutes interval during the day, were evaluated over leaf area and stem and leaves dry weight, using the hybrid Dasher. No statistical significant differences were found suggesting that the 30 s time period is the best choice since it reduces electric energy costs. The effect of three different nutrient solutions: Hoagland and Arnon, Aeroponicos 100% and Aeroponicos 50%, was tested for leaf area, dry weight, fruit weight and number. We found a significant reduction in the variables leaf area, leaf and stem dry weight, average fruit weight (up to 43.3% and fruit number, using the solution named Aeroponicos at 50% of the commercial concentration. Together our results allowed implementing variables to increase efficiency on a cucumber aeroponic crop system, some of which may improve the economic and environmental performance of cucumber crop using this technology.

  6. Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

  7. Modelling suction instabilities in soils at varying degrees of saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buscarnera Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wetting paths imparted by the natural environment and/or human activities affect the state of soils in the near-surface, promoting transitions across different regimes of saturation. This paper discusses a set of techniques aimed at quantifying the role of hydrologic processes on the hydro-mechanical stability of soil specimens subjected to saturation events. Emphasis is given to the mechanical conditions leading to coupled flow/deformation instabilities. For this purpose, energy balance arguments for three-phase systems are used to derive second-order work expressions applicable to various regimes of saturation. Controllability analyses are then performed to relate such work input with constitutive singularities that reflect the loss of strength under coupled and/or uncoupled hydro-mechanical forcing. A suction-dependent plastic model is finally used to track the evolution of stability conditions in samples subjected to wetting, thus quantifying the growth of the potential for coupled failure modes upon increasing degree of saturation. These findings are eventually linked with the properties of the field equations that govern pore pressure transients, thus disclosing a conceptual link between the onset of coupled hydro-mechanical failures and the evolution of suction with time. Such results point out that mathematical instabilities caused by a non-linear suction dependent behaviour play an important role in the advanced constitutive and/or numerical tools that are commonly used for the analysis of geomechanical problems in the unsaturated zone, and further stress that the relation between suction transients and soil deformations is a key factor for the interpretation of runaway failures caused by intense saturation events.

  8. Day/Night Cycle: Mental Models of Primary School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiras, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    The study investigated the mental models of primary school children related to the day/night cycle. Semi-structure interviews were conducted with 40 fourth-grade and 40 sixth-grade children. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data indicated that the majority of the children were classified as having geocentric models. The results also…

  9. Nontraditional Degree Options for Nurses: A Model Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walston, Sydney C.

    1978-01-01

    The Institute for Personal and Career Development of Central Michigan University offers external degree programs for adult learners using nontraditional study. The competency-based programs described include credit given for the educational background and relevant career-life experiences of registered nurses in Michigan. (Author/LBH)

  10. Observed and Projected Changes in Thermal Growing Degree-Days and Growing Season and Their Divergent Responses to Warming over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, H.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS). By choosing 0°C, 5°C and 10°C, three key based temperatures (Tb) for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during the observed period (1960-2011) were developed using homogenized daily mean temperatures (Td) in 536 meteorological stations. In addition, the GDD10 and GS10 in China were projected under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs) during 1961-2099, using the Td (0.5°×0.5°) derived from five general circulation models (GCMs), after model evaluation. Advance in the start of the growing season (SOS; 4.86-6.71 days; SOS0 > SOS5 > SOS10) and delay in the end of the growing season (EOS; 4.32-6.19 days; EOS0 GDD5 > GDD10), in China as a whole. Each observed variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Increases in the GDD10 and GS10 would continue in the 21st century, causing northward shifts in the temperature zones. Finally in the long-term (2071-2099), the nationally average GDD10 and GS10 would be 279.1°C·d higher and 16.5 d longer for RCP 2.6, and 964.4°C·d higher and 50.3 d longer for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Regionally, the GDD enhancement were stronger in the tropics, east, northeast and northwest China during the observed period, and tend to be in southern China in the future. The largest GS extensions are consistently in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Alpine zone, particularly in the future. During the observed period, advance in SOS and delay in EOS drove the GS extensions in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone respectively. In the future, an advanced SOS drives the GS extension in the northern (> ca. 33°N) Tibetan Alpine zone, the mountainous areas in northeast China, and south of the Tropic of Cancer. The GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the temperature (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10

  11. Bipolar electrocautery: A rodent model of Sunderland third-degree nerve injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradzadeh, Arash; Brenner, Michael J; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Tong, Alice Y; Luciano, Janina P; Hunter, Daniel A; Myckatyn, Terence M; Mackinnon, Susan E

    2010-01-01

    To determine the Sunderland classification of a bipolar electrocautery injury. Twenty-two rats received crush (a reproducible Sunderland second-degree injury) or bipolar electrocautery injury and were evaluated for functional, histomorphometric, and immunohistochemical recovery at 21 or 42 days. Animal experiments were performed between July 3 and December 12, 2007. Axonal regeneration and end plate reinnervation were evaluated in double transgenic cyan fluorescent protein-conjugated Thy1 and green fluorescent protein-conjugated S100 mice. Compared with crush injury, bipolar electrocautery injury caused greater disruption of myelin and neurofilament architecture at the injury site and decreased nerve fiber counts and percentage of neural tissue distal to the injury (P =.007). Complete functional recovery was seen after crush but not bipolar electrocautery injury. Serial live imaging demonstrated axonal regeneration at week 1 after crush and at week 3 after bipolar electrocautery injury. Qualitative assessment of motor end plate reinnervation at 42 days demonstrated complete neuromuscular end plate reinnervation in the crush group and only limited reinnervation in the bipolar electrocautery group. Bipolar electrocautery injury in a rodent model resulted in a Sunderland third-degree injury, characterized by gradual, incomplete recovery without intervention.

  12. Simple model of string with colour degrees of freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadasz, Leszek

    1994-03-01

    We consider a simple model of string with colour charges on its ends. The model is constructed by rewriting the action describing classical spinless as well as spinning particles with colour charge in terms of fields living on the “string worldsheet” bounded by trajectories of the particles.

  13. A TRANSFERABLE MODEL FOR INNOVATIVE JOINT POSTGRADUATE DEGREE PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maclachlan, Ross; Ion, William; Kochanowska, Rowena

    2009-01-01

    aim of the programme is to produce graduates with an expanded perspective of innovation management to meet the needs of global industry. In particular this is to be achieved through a curriculum that integrates design based modules with progressive innovation and technology management education....... The collaboration brings depth and breadth to the innovation curriculum, and the student experience, through student mobility and the complementary expertise of partners. However, for higher education institutions to effectively collaborate at both administrative and academic levels, a number of new challenges must...... be overcome. This paper reflects on specific challenges met during development of the GIM programme and presents a programme model addressing these. The model is presented as transferable to other consortia and as basis for a set of tentative principles for joint programme development with particular...

  14. A Swarm lithospheric magnetic field model to SH degree 80

    OpenAIRE

    Thébault, Erwan; Vigneron, Pierre; Langlais, Benoit; Hulot, Gauthier

    2016-01-01

    International audience; The Swarm constellation of satellites was launched in November 2013 and since then has delivered high-quality scalar and vector magnetic field measurements. A consortium of several research institutions was selected by the European Space Agency to provide a number of scientific products to be made available to the scientific community on a regular basis. In this study, we present the dedicated lithospheric field inversion model. It uses carefully selected magnetic fiel...

  15. High degree gravitational sensitivity from Mars orbiters for the GMM-1 gravity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerch, F. J.; Smith, D. E.; Chan, J. C.; Patel, G. B.; Chinn, D. S.

    1994-01-01

    Orbital sensitivity of the gravity field for high degree terms (greater than 30) is analyzed on satellites employed in a Goddard Mars Model GMM-1, complete in spherical harmonics through degree and order 50. The model is obtained from S-band Doppler data on Mariner 9 (M9), Viking Orbiter 1 (VO1), and Viking Orbiter 2 (VO2) spacecraft, which were tracked by the NASA Deep Space Network on seven different highly eccentric orbits. The main sensitivity of the high degree terms is obtained from the VO1 and VO2 low orbits (300 km periapsis altitude), where significant spectral sensitivity is seen for all degrees out through degree 50. The velocity perturbations show a dominant effect at periapsis and significant effects out beyond the semi-latus rectum covering over 180 degrees of the orbital groundtrack for the low altitude orbits. Because of the wideband of periapsis motion covering nearly 180 degrees in w and +39 degrees in latitude coverage, the VO1 300 km periapsis altitude orbit with inclination of 39 degrees gave the dominant sensitivity in the GMM-1 solution for the high degree terms. Although the VO2 low periapsis orbit has a smaller band of periapsis mapping coverage, it strongly complements the VO1 orbit sensitivity for the GMM-1 solution with Doppler tracking coverage over a different inclination of 80 degrees.

  16. A simulation model of Rosa hybrida growth response to constant irradiance and day and night temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, D.A.; Hammer, P.A.; Wilson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper details the development and verification of ROSESIM, a computer simulation model of the growth of ‘Royalty’ roses (Rosa hybrida L.) based on experimentally observed growth responses from pinch until flowering under 15 combinations of constant photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), day temperature (DT), and night temperature (NT). Selected according to a rotatable central composite design, these treatment combinations represent commercial greenhouse conditions during the winter and spring in the midwestern United States; each selected condition was maintained in an environmental growth chamber having 12-hour photoperiods. ROSESIM incorporates regression models of four flower development characteristics (days from pinch to visible bud, first color, sepal reflex, and flowering) that are full quadratic polynomials in PPF, DT, and NT. ROSESIM also incorporates mathematical models of nine plant growth characteristics (stem length and the following fresh and dry weights: stem, leaf, flower, and total) based on data recorded every 10 days and at flowering. At each design point, a cubic regression in time (days from pinch) estimated the plant growth characteristics on intermediate days; then difference equations were developed to predict the resulting daily growth increments as third-degree polynomial functions of days from pinch, PPF, DT, and NT. ROSESIM was verified by plotting against time each simulated plant growth characteristic and the associated experimental observations for the eight factorial design points defining the region of interest. Moreover, one-way analysis of variance procedures were applied to the differences between ROSESIM predictions and the corresponding observed means for all 15 treatment combinations. At 20 days from pinch, significant differences (P < 0.05) were observed for all nine plant growth characteristics. At 30 and 40 days from pinch, only flower fresh and dry weights yielded significant differences; at flowering, none of the 13

  17. A simulation model of Rosa hybrida growth response to constant irradiance and day and night temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hopper, D. A. [Colorado State University, Fort Collin, CO. (United States); Hammer, P. A.; Wilson, J. R.

    1994-09-15

    This paper details the development and verification of ROSESIM, a computer simulation model of the growth of ‘Royalty’ roses (Rosa hybrida L.) based on experimentally observed growth responses from pinch until flowering under 15 combinations of constant photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), day temperature (DT), and night temperature (NT). Selected according to a rotatable central composite design, these treatment combinations represent commercial greenhouse conditions during the winter and spring in the midwestern United States; each selected condition was maintained in an environmental growth chamber having 12-hour photoperiods. ROSESIM incorporates regression models of four flower development characteristics (days from pinch to visible bud, first color, sepal reflex, and flowering) that are full quadratic polynomials in PPF, DT, and NT. ROSESIM also incorporates mathematical models of nine plant growth characteristics (stem length and the following fresh and dry weights: stem, leaf, flower, and total) based on data recorded every 10 days and at flowering. At each design point, a cubic regression in time (days from pinch) estimated the plant growth characteristics on intermediate days; then difference equations were developed to predict the resulting daily growth increments as third-degree polynomial functions of days from pinch, PPF, DT, and NT. ROSESIM was verified by plotting against time each simulated plant growth characteristic and the associated experimental observations for the eight factorial design points defining the region of interest. Moreover, one-way analysis of variance procedures were applied to the differences between ROSESIM predictions and the corresponding observed means for all 15 treatment combinations. At 20 days from pinch, significant differences (P < 0.05) were observed for all nine plant growth characteristics. At 30 and 40 days from pinch, only flower fresh and dry weights yielded significant differences; at flowering, none of the 13

  18. A model to simulate day-to-day variations in rectum shape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeman, Mischa S.; van Herk, Marcel; Yan, Di; Boersma, Liesbeth J.; Koper, Peter C. M.; Lebesque, Joos V.

    2002-01-01

    PURPOSE: To develop a model that predicts possible rectum configurations that can occur during radiotherapy of prostate cancer on the basis of a planning CT scan and patient group data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used a stochastic shape description model with a limited number of parameters (area,

  19. On 4-degree-of-freedom biodynamic models of seated occupants: Lumped-parameter modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xian-Xu; Xu, Shi-Xu; Cheng, Wei; Qian, Li-Jun

    2017-08-01

    It is useful to develop an effective biodynamic model of seated human occupants to help understand the human vibration exposure to transportation vehicle vibrations and to help design and improve the anti-vibration devices and/or test dummies. This study proposed and demonstrated a methodology for systematically identifying the best configuration or structure of a 4-degree-of-freedom (4DOF) human vibration model and for its parameter identification. First, an equivalent simplification expression for the models was made. Second, all of the possible 23 structural configurations of the models were identified. Third, each of them was calibrated using the frequency response functions recommended in a biodynamic standard. An improved version of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) based on Pareto optimization principle was used to determine the model parameters. Finally, a model evaluation criterion proposed in this study was used to assess the models and to identify the best one, which was based on both the goodness of curve fits and comprehensive goodness of the fits. The identified top configurations were better than those reported in the literature. This methodology may also be extended and used to develop the models with other DOFs.

  20. A FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF COMPUTER-ORIENTED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT OF A POST-DEGREE PEDAGOGICAL EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kateryna R. Kolos

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The study substantiates the need for a systematic study of the functioning of computer-oriented learning environment of a post-degree pedagogical education; it is determined the definition of “functional model of computer-oriented learning environment of a post-degree pedagogical education”; it is built a functional model of computer-oriented learning environment of a post-degree pedagogical education in accordance with the functions of business, information and communication technology, academic, administrative staff and peculiarities of training courses teachers.

  1. Application of improved degree of grey incidence analysis model in fault diagnosis of steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Xinwen; Ren Xin

    2014-01-01

    In order to further reduce the misoperation after the faults occurring of nuclear-powered system in marine, the model based on weighted degree of grey incidence of optimized entropy and fault diagnosis system are proposed, and some simulation experiments about the typical faults of steam generator of nuclear-powered system in marine are conducted. And the results show that the diagnosis system based on improved degree of grey incidence model is more stable and its conclusion is right, and can satisfy diagnosis in real time, and higher faults subjection degrees resolving power can be achieved. (authors)

  2. On the Nonlinear Structural Analysis of Wind Turbine Blades using Reduced Degree-of-Freedom Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm-Jørgensen, Kristian; Larsen, Jesper Winther; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2008-01-01

    , modelling geometrical and inertial nonlinear couplings in the fundamental flap and edge direction. The purpose of this article is to examine the applicability of such a reduced-degree-of-freedom model in predicting the nonlinear response and stability of a blade by comparison to a full model based...... on a nonlinear co-rotating FE formulation. By use of the reduced-degree-of-freedom model it is shown that under strong resonance excitation of the fundamental flap or edge modes, significant energy is transferred to higher modes due to parametric or nonlinear coupling terms, which influence the response...... of the small number of included modes. The qualitative erratic response and stability prediction of the reduced order models take place at frequencies slightly above normal operation. However, for normal operation of the wind turbine without resonance excitation 4 modes in the reduced-degree-of-freedom model...

  3. Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Effects Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivitsky, Pavel N; Handcock, Mark S; Raftery, Adrian E; Hoff, Peter D

    2009-07-01

    Social network data often involve transitivity, homophily on observed attributes, clustering, and heterogeneity of actor degrees. We propose a latent cluster random effects model to represent all of these features, and we describe a Bayesian estimation method for it. The model is applicable to both binary and non-binary network data. We illustrate the model using two real datasets. We also apply it to two simulated network datasets with the same, highly skewed, degree distribution, but very different network behavior: one unstructured and the other with transitivity and clustering. Models based on degree distributions, such as scale-free, preferential attachment and power-law models, cannot distinguish between these very different situations, but our model does.

  4. Relação entre coeficientes de cultura e graus-dia de desenvolvimento da alface Relationship between lettuce crop coeficient and growing degree days

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elio L. da Silva

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo foi conduzido na Fazenda Campbell da Universidade do Arizona , no período de junho de 1994 a fevereiro de 1995, com objetivo de determinar a equação do coeficiente de cultura (Kc como função de graus-dia de desenvolvimento (GDD usando a série de senos Fourier, para alface (Lactuca sativa, L., do tipo folhosa. Foram usadas dez parcelas casualizadas, irrigadas de maneira a manter o potencial matricial da água no solo acima ou igual a -20kPa, que constituiram as repetições na determinação dos valores de evapotranspiração máxima da cultura (ETm. Cada parcela foi constituida por seis canteiros de 1,0 m x 7,3 m, com duas linhas de plantas (cultivar Waldmann's Green em cada, com população, após desbaste, de 48 plantas por canteiro. A época de desbaste ocorreu com GDD de 228ºC e Kc médio de 0,4 e a colheita com GDD igual a 742ºC e Kc médio de 1,2. Os valores de Kc como função de GDD, em diferentes estádios do ciclo da cultura, permitiram gerar uma equação que pode ser inserida em programa de computador para manejo de irrigação, considerando um GDD final (GDD de ajuste de 900ºC.This research was carried out at the Campbell Farm of The University of Arizona, from June 1994 to February 1995, with the aim of determining a growing-degree-days-based crop coefficient (Kc equation for leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L., using the Fourier sine series model. Ten randomized experimental plots were irrigated, in order to maintain a soil matric potential greater or equal to -20 kPa, as replications for the determination of crop maximum evapotranspiration (ETm. Each plot consisted of six raised beds, 7.3 m long and 1.0 m wide, with two rows of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L., cv. Waldmann's Green thinned to a final population of 48 plants per bed. The thinning time occurred with a GDD of 228ºC and average Kc of 0.4. The harvest time occurred with GDD of 742ºC and average Kc of 1.2. The values of Kc as function of GDD, during the

  5. Topical Application Effect of the Isolectin Hydrogel (Cramoll 1,4 on Second-Degree Burns: Experimental Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle dos Santos Tavares Pereira

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at evaluating the use of hydrogel isolectin in the treatment of second-degree burns. Twenty male rats were randomly divided into two groups (G1 = treatment with hydrogel containing 100 μg/mL Cramoll 1,4 and G2 = Control, hydrogel. After 7, 14, 21, 28, and 35 days, animals were euthanized. On the 7th day, G1 showed intense exudates, necrosis and edema. On the 14th day, G1 showed tissue reepithelialization and moderate autolysis. On the 21st day, G1 showed intense fibroblastic proliferation, presence of dense collagen, and moderate fibrosis. On the 28th day, G1 showed complete tissue epithelialization. On the 35th day, G1 showed modeled dense collagen. The significant wound contraction was initiated from day, 14 in the G1. There were no significant differences in biochemical and hematological parameters analyzed. These results extend the potential of therapeutic applications for Cramoll 1,4 in the treatment of thermal burns.

  6. Modeling interacting dynamic networks: I. Preferred degree networks and their characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, Beate; Zia, R K P; Jolad, Shivakumar

    2013-01-01

    We study a simple model of dynamic networks, characterized by a set preferred degree, κ. Each node with degree k attempts to maintain its κ and will add (cut) a link with probability w(k;κ) (1 − w(k;κ)). As a starting point, we consider a homogeneous population, where each node has the same κ, and examine several forms of w(k;κ), inspired by Fermi–Dirac functions. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find the degree distribution in the steady state. In contrast to the well known Erdős–Rényi network, our degree distribution is not a Poisson distribution; yet its behavior can be understood by an approximate theory. Next, we introduce a second preferred degree network and couple it to the first by establishing a controllable fraction of inter-group links. For this model, we find both understandable and puzzling features. Generalizing the prediction for the homogeneous population, we are able to explain the total degree distributions well, but not the intra- or inter-group degree distributions. When monitoring the total number of inter-group links, X, we find very surprising behavior. X explores almost the full range between its maximum and minimum allowed values, resulting in a flat steady-state distribution, reminiscent of a simple random walk confined between two walls. Both simulation results and analytic approaches will be discussed. (paper)

  7. Simulations of ferrofluid dynamics: Rigid dipoles model versus particles with internal degrees of freedom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkov, D.V.; Gorn, N.L.; Stock, D.

    2007-01-01

    For numerical studies of a ferrofluid dynamics we have developed a model which includes internal magnetic degrees of freedom of ferrofluid particles. Contrary to standard models, we take into account that the magnetocrystalline anisotropy of a ferrofluid particle material is finite, so that the particle moment is allowed to rotate with respect to the particle itself. Simulating magnetization relaxation of a ferrofluid after switching off the external field and comparing results with those obtained for rigid dipoles model, we demonstrate that for anisotropy typical for commonly used ferrofluid materials inclusion of 'magnetic' degrees of freedom is essential for a correct description of ferrofluid dynamics

  8. Random walk in degree space and the time-dependent Watts-Strogatz model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casa Grande, H. L.; Cotacallapa, M.; Hase, M. O.

    2017-01-01

    In this work, we propose a scheme that provides an analytical estimate for the time-dependent degree distribution of some networks. This scheme maps the problem into a random walk in degree space, and then we choose the paths that are responsible for the dominant contributions. The method is illustrated on the dynamical versions of the Erdős-Rényi and Watts-Strogatz graphs, which were introduced as static models in the original formulation. We have succeeded in obtaining an analytical form for the dynamics Watts-Strogatz model, which is asymptotically exact for some regimes.

  9. Comparison between the Lactation Model and the Test-Day Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ARC-IRENE

    National Genetic Evaluation, using a Fixed Regression Test-day Model (TDM). This comparison is made for. Ayrshire, Guernsey, Holstein and Jersey cows participating in the South African Dairy Animal Improvement. Scheme. Specific differences between the two models were documented, with differences in statistical.

  10. GRGM900C: A Degree 900 Lunar Gravity Model from GRAIL Primary and Extended Mission Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Frank G.; Goossens, Sander; Sabaka, Terence J.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Mazarico, Erwan; Rowlands, David D.; Bryant, D. Loomis; Chinn, Douglas S.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Smith, David E.; hide

    2014-01-01

    We have derived a gravity field solution in spherical harmonics to degree and order 900, GRGM900C, from the tracking data of the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) Primary (1 March to 29 May 2012) and Extended Missions (30 August to 14 December 2012). A power law constraint of 3.6 × 10(exp -4)/l(exp 2) was applied only for degree l greater than 600. The model produces global correlations of gravity, and gravity predicted from lunar topography of greater than or equal to 0.98 through degree 638. The model's degree strength varies from a minimum of 575-675 over the central nearside and farside to 900 over the polar regions. The model fits the Extended Mission Ka-Band Range Rate data through 17 November 2012 at 0.13 micrometers/s RMS, whereas the last month of Ka-Band Range-Rate data obtained from altitudes of 2-10 km fit at 0.98 micrometers/s RMS, indicating that there is still signal inherent in the tracking data beyond degree 900.

  11. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y W [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Zhang, L F [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Huang, J P [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

    2007-07-20

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property.

  12. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y W; Zhang, L F; Huang, J P

    2007-01-01

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property

  13. Fractional order creep model for dam concrete considering degree of hydration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yaoying; Xiao, Lei; Bao, Tengfei; Liu, Yu

    2018-05-01

    Concrete is a material that is an intermediate between an ideal solid and an ideal fluid. The creep of concrete is related not only to the loading age and duration, but also to its temperature and temperature history. Fractional order calculus is a powerful tool for solving physical mechanics modeling problems. Using a software element based on the generalized Kelvin model, a fractional order creep model of concrete considering the loading age and duration is established. Then, the hydration rate of cement is considered in terms of the degree of hydration, and the fractional order creep model of concrete considering the degree of hydration is established. Moreover, uniaxial tensile creep tests of dam concrete under different curing temperatures were conducted, and the results were combined with the creep test data and complex optimization method to optimize the parameters of a new creep model. The results show that the fractional tensile creep model based on hydration degree can better describe the tensile creep properties of concrete, and this model involves fewer parameters than the 8-parameter model.

  14. Cogenerating a Competency-based HRM Degree: A Model and Some Lessons from Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wooten, Kevin C.; Elden, Max

    2001-01-01

    A competency-based degree program in human resource management was co-generated by six groups of stakeholders who synthesized competency models using group decision support software. The program focuses on core human resource processes, general business management, strategic decision making and problem solving, change management, and personal…

  15. Large Deviations for the Annealed Ising Model on Inhomogeneous Random Graphs: Spins and Degrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommers, Sander; Giardinà, Cristian; Giberti, Claudio; Hofstad, Remco van der

    2018-04-01

    We prove a large deviations principle for the total spin and the number of edges under the annealed Ising measure on generalized random graphs. We also give detailed results on how the annealing over the Ising model changes the degrees of the vertices in the graph and show how it gives rise to interesting correlated random graphs.

  16. Innovation in Doctoral Degrees Designed for Adult Learners: A Hybrid Model in Personal Financial Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grable, John E.

    2011-01-01

    Innovation in doctoral degree program development and delivery provides an effective counterpoint to the expert-apprentice model established in the Middle Ages. The author outlines the importance of innovation in reaching adult learners and describes an innovative hybrid PhD program designed to allow aspiring doctoral adult-age students to pursue…

  17. Random walk in degree space and the time-dependent Watts-Strogatz model

    OpenAIRE

    Grande, H. L. Casa; Cotacallapa, M.; Hase, M. O.

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we propose a scheme that provides an analytical estimate for the time-dependent degree distribution of some networks. This scheme maps the problem into a random walk in degree space, and then we choose the paths that are responsible for the dominant contributions. The method is illustrated on the dynamical versions of the Erd\\"os-R\\'enyi and Watts-Strogatz graphs, which were introduced as static models in the original formulation. We have succeeded in obtaining an analytical for...

  18. Modeling returns to education and labour market outcomes of doctoral degree holders in Bulgaria

    OpenAIRE

    Simeonova-Ganeva, Ralitsa; Panayotova, Nataliya; Ganev, Kaloyan

    2013-01-01

    In this study we present the theoretical framework of the so called Mincerian equations used for modelling returns to education. Then, we construct a conceptual framework which allows us to answer the question “What happens to doctoral degree holders in the labour market?”. We analyse data for about 45,000 PhD graduates in Bulgaria from the NSI survey Career development of PhD degree holders run in 2007, 2009, and 2010. An attempt is made to measure pay gaps in terms of gender and major of st...

  19. Persuasion Model and Its Evaluation Based on Positive Change Degree of Agent Emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinghua, Wu; Wenguang, Lu; Hailiang, Meng

    For it can meet needs of negotiation among organizations take place in different time and place, and for it can make its course more rationality and result more ideal, persuasion based on agent can improve cooperation among organizations well. Integrated emotion change in agent persuasion can further bring agent advantage of artificial intelligence into play. Emotion of agent persuasion is classified, and the concept of positive change degree is given. Based on this, persuasion model based on positive change degree of agent emotion is constructed, which is explained clearly through an example. Finally, the method of relative evaluation is given, which is also verified through a calculation example.

  20. Development of Building Thermal Load and Discomfort Degree Hour Prediction Models Using Data Mining Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaolin Lin

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Thermal load and indoor comfort level are two important building performance indicators, rapid predictions of which can help significantly reduce the computation time during design optimization. In this paper, a three-step approach is used to develop and evaluate prediction models. Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Sampling Method (LHSM is used to generate a representative 19-dimensional design database and DesignBuilder is then used to obtain the thermal load and discomfort degree hours through simulation. Secondly, samples from the database are used to develop and validate seven prediction models, using data mining approaches including multilinear regression (MLR, chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID, exhaustive CHAID (ECHAID, back-propagation neural network (BPNN, radial basis function network (RBFN, classification and regression trees (CART, and support vector machines (SVM. It is found that the MLR and BPNN models outperform the others in the prediction of thermal load with average absolute error of less than 1.19%, and the BPNN model is the best at predicting discomfort degree hour with 0.62% average absolute error. Finally, two hybrid models—MLR (MLR + BPNN and MLR-BPNN—are developed. The MLR-BPNN models are found to be the best prediction models, with average absolute error of 0.82% in thermal load and 0.59% in discomfort degree hour.

  1. Modeling a Day in the Life of a Diabetic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brod, Ryan; Gomber, John; Mendoza, Jurelle; Roginski, Jonathan; Smith, Tyler

    2010-01-01

    The material presented here was used for a semester-long capstone project for a first semester freshman course entitled Mathematical Modeling and Introduction to Calculus. The goals for the students in this work were twofold: first, enable the students to gain insight into an actual problem that affects millions of people in the United States and…

  2. Modeling, Simulation and Position Control of 3 Degree of Freedom Articulated Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Sadegh Lafmejani

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the modeling, simulation and control of 3 degree of freedom articulated robotic manipulator have been studied. First, we extracted kinematics and dynamics equations of the mentioned manipulator by using the Lagrange method. In order to validate the analytical model of the manipulator we compared the model simulated in the simulation environment of Matlab with the model was simulated with the SimMechanics toolbox. A sample path has been designed for analyzing the tracking subject. The system has been linearized with feedback linearization and then a PID controller was applied to track a reference trajectory. Finally, the control results have been compared with a nonlinear PID controller.

  3. A comparative study of two food model systems to test the survival of Campylobacter jejuni at -18 degrees C

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Tina; Rosenquist, Hanne; Brondsted, L.

    2006-01-01

    The survival of Campylobacter jejuni NCTC 11168 was tested at freezing conditions (-18 degrees C) over a period of 32 days in two food models that simulated either (i) the chicken skin surface (skin model) or (ii) the chicken juice in and around a broiler carcass (liquid model). In the skin model...... NCTC 11168 cells was slower when suspended in chicken juice than in BHIB. After freezing for 32 days, the reductions in the cell counts were 1.5 log CFU/ml in chicken juice and 3.5 log CFU/ml in BHIB. After the same time of freezing but when inoculated onto chicken skin, C. jejuni NCTC 11168...... was reduced by 2.2 log units when inoculated in chicken juice and 3.2 log units when inoculated into BHIB. For both models, the major decrease occurred within the first 24 h of freezing. The results obtained in the liquid model with chicken juice were comparable to the reductions of Campylobacter observed...

  4. Day and night models of the Venus thermosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, S. T.; Hunten, D. M.; Sowell, D. R.

    1983-01-01

    A model atmosphere of Venus for altitudes between 100 and 178 km is presented for the dayside and nightside. Densities of CO2, CO, O, N2, He, and O2 on the dayside, for 0800 and 1600 hours local time, are obtained by simultaneous solution of continuity equations. These equations couple ionospheric and neutral chemistry and the transport processes of molecular and eddy diffusion. Photodissociation and photoionization J coefficients are presented to facilitate the incorporation of chemistry into circulation models of the Venus atmosphere. Midnight densities of CO2 CO, O, N2, He, and N are derived from integration of the continuity equations, subject to specified fluxes. The nightside densities and fluxes are consistent with the observed airglow of NO and O2(1 Delta). The homopause of Venus is located near 133 km on both the dayside and nightside.

  5. Low degree Earth's gravity coefficients determined from different space geodetic observations and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta

    2017-04-01

    Large scale mass redistribution and its transport within the Earth system causes changes in the Earth's rotation in space, gravity field and Earth's ellipsoid shape. These changes are observed in the ΔC21, ΔS21, and ΔC20 spherical harmonics gravity coefficients, which are proportional to the mass load-induced Earth rotational excitations. In this study, linear trend, decadal, inter-annual, and seasonal variations of low degree spherical harmonics coefficients of Earth's gravity field, determined from different space geodetic techniques, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), satellite laser ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Earth rotation, and climate models, are examined. In this way, the contribution of each measurement technique to interpreting the low degree surface mass density of the Earth is shown. Especially, we evaluate an usefulness of several climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the low degree Earth's gravity coefficients using GRACE satellite observations. To do that, Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes from several CMIP5 climate models are determined and then these simulated data are compared with the GRACE observations. Spherical harmonics ΔC21, ΔS21, and ΔC20 changes are calculated as the sum of atmosphere and ocean mass effect (GAC values) taken from GRACE and a land surface hydrological estimate from the selected CMIP5 climate models. Low degree Stokes coefficients of the surface mass density determined from GRACE, SLR, GNSS, Earth rotation measurements and climate models are compared to each other in order to assess their consistency. The comparison is done by using different types of statistical and signal processing methods.

  6. One-degree-of-freedom spherical model for the passive motion of the human ankle joint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancisi, Nicola; Baldisserri, Benedetta; Parenti-Castelli, Vincenzo; Belvedere, Claudio; Leardini, Alberto

    2014-04-01

    Mathematical modelling of mobility at the human ankle joint is essential for prosthetics and orthotic design. The scope of this study is to show that the ankle joint passive motion can be represented by a one-degree-of-freedom spherical motion. Moreover, this motion is modelled by a one-degree-of-freedom spherical parallel mechanism model, and the optimal pivot-point position is determined. Passive motion and anatomical data were taken from in vitro experiments in nine lower limb specimens. For each of these, a spherical mechanism, including the tibiofibular and talocalcaneal segments connected by a spherical pair and by the calcaneofibular and tibiocalcaneal ligament links, was defined from the corresponding experimental kinematics and geometry. An iterative procedure was used to optimize the geometry of the model, able to predict original experimental motion. The results of the simulations showed a good replication of the original natural motion, despite the numerous model assumptions and simplifications, with mean differences between experiments and predictions smaller than 1.3 mm (average 0.33 mm) for the three joint position components and smaller than 0.7° (average 0.32°) for the two out-of-sagittal plane rotations, once plotted versus the full flexion arc. The relevant pivot-point position after model optimization was found within the tibial mortise, but not exactly in a central location. The present combined experimental and modelling analysis of passive motion at the human ankle joint shows that a one degree-of-freedom spherical mechanism predicts well what is observed in real joints, although its computational complexity is comparable to the standard hinge joint model.

  7. Modelling critical degrees of saturation of porous building materials subjected to freezing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1996-01-01

    of SCR based on fracture mechanics and phase geometry of two-phase materials has been developed.The degradation is modelled as being caused by different eigenstrains of the pore phase and the solid phase when freezing, leading to stress concentrations and crack propagation. Simplifications are made......Frost resistance of porous materials can be characterized by the critical degree of saturation, SCR, and the actual degree of saturation, SACT. An experimental determination of SCR is very laborious and therefore only seldom used when testing frost resistance. A theoretical model for prediction...... to describe the development of stresses and the pore structure, because a mathematical description of the physical theories explaining the process of freezing of water in porous materials is lacking.Calculations are based on porosity, modulus of elasticity and tensile strength, and parameters characterizing...

  8. Characterizing the degree of convective clustering using radar reflectivity and its application to evaluating model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, W. Y.; Kim, D.; Rowe, A.; Park, S.

    2017-12-01

    Despite the impact of mesoscale convective organization on the properties of convection (e.g., mixing between updrafts and environment), parameterizing the degree of convective organization has only recently been attempted in cumulus parameterization schemes (e.g., Unified Convection Scheme UNICON). Additionally, challenges remain in determining the degree of convective organization from observations and in comparing directly with the organization metrics in model simulations. This study addresses the need to objectively quantify the degree of mesoscale convective organization using high quality S-PolKa radar data from the DYNAMO field campaign. One of the most noticeable aspects of mesoscale convective organization in radar data is the degree of convective clustering, which can be characterized by the number and size distribution of convective echoes and the distance between them. We propose a method of defining contiguous convective echoes (CCEs) using precipitating convective echoes identified by a rain type classification algorithm. Two classification algorithms, Steiner et al. (1995) and Powell et al. (2016), are tested and evaluated against high-resolution WRF simulations to determine which method better represents the degree of convective clustering. Our results suggest that the CCEs based on Powell et al.'s algorithm better represent the dynamical properties of the convective updrafts and thus provide the basis of a metric for convective organization. Furthermore, through a comparison with the observational data, the WRF simulations driven by the DYNAMO large-scale forcing, similarly applied to UNICON Single Column Model simulations, will allow us to evaluate the ability of both WRF and UNICON to simulate convective clustering. This evaluation is based on the physical processes that are explicitly represented in WRF and UNICON, including the mechanisms leading to convective clustering, and the feedback to the convective properties.

  9. Macroscopic damping model for zero degree energy distribution in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Chongshou; Wang Chengshing

    1993-01-01

    A macroscopic damping model is proposed to calculate the zero degree energy distribution in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions. The main features of the measured distributions are reproduced, good agreement is obtained in the middle energy region while overestimation results on the high energy side. The average energy loss coefficient of incident nucleons, varying in the reasonable region 0.2-0.6, depends on beam energy and target size

  10. A 70th Degree Lunar Gravity Model (GLGM-2) from Clementine and other tracking data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemonie, Frank G. R.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.; Neumann, Gregory A.

    1997-01-01

    A spherical harmonic model of the lunar gravity field complete to degree and order 70 has been developed from S band Doppler tracking data from the Clementine mission, as well as historical tracking data from Lunar Orbiters 1-5 and the Apollo 15 and 16 subsatellites. The model combines 361,000 Doppler observations from Clementine with 347,000 historical observations. The historical data consist of mostly 60-s Doppler with a noise of 0.25 to several mm/s. The Clementine data consist of mostly 10-s Doppler data, with a data noise of 0.25 mm/s for the observations from the Deep Space Network, and 2.5 mm/s for the data from a naval tracking station at Pomonkey, Maryland. Observations provided Clementine, provide the strongest satellite constraint on the Moon's low-degree field. In contrast the historical data, collected by spacecraft that had lower periapsis altitudes, provide distributed regions of high-resolution coverage within +/- 29 deg of the nearside lunar equator. To obtain the solution for a high-degree field in the absence of a uniform distribution of observations, we applied an a priori power law constraint of the form 15 x 10(exp -5)/sq l which had the effect of limiting the gravitational power and noise at short wavelengths. Coefficients through degree and order 18 are not significantly affected by the constraint, and so the model permits geophysical analysis of effects of the major basins at degrees 10-12. The GLGM-2 model confirms major features of the lunar gravity field shown in previous gravitational field models but also reveals significantly more detail, particularly at intermediate wavelengths (10(exp 3) km). Free-air gravity anomaly maps derived from the new model show the nearside and farside highlands to be gravitationally smooth, reflecting a state of isostatic compensation. Mascon basins (including Imbrium, Serenitatis, Crisium, Smythii, and Humorum) are denoted by gravity highs first recognized from Lunar Orbiter tracking. All of the major

  11. [Models, methods, clinical contents in the specialized degree in nursing sciences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zannini, Lucia

    2003-01-01

    The document presented is the result of a consensus conference where nurses involved in teaching, direct care and management discussed with professionals and experts of other disciplines on the role of the clinical teaching at specialistic level. Nursing education in fact recently underwent a re-organization therefore after the degree (first level) there is a second level (Specialistic degree and PhD) first and second level master courses. The main question of the consensus conference was if there is a role and what are the contents of clinical nursing to be taught at specialistic level. A consensus was reached on the importance of not separating the teaching of the methods from the contents of care, to allow the production of new knowledge relevant for patients' care. A nurse with a specialistic degree should be able to plan and implement innovative models of care based on scientific knowledge; to recognise unexpected and rapidly evolving problems; to plan and implement, in collaboration with other professionals, complex educational interventions; study and explore principles and theories of helping relationship. The differences in contents and methods of clinical teaching between master and specialistic degree need to be further discussed and explored.

  12. Understanding the Day Cent model: Calibration, sensitivity, and identifiability through inverse modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necpálová, Magdalena; Anex, Robert P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Sawyer, John E.; Iqbal, Javed; Pantoja, Jose L.; Barker, Daniel W.

    2015-01-01

    The ability of biogeochemical ecosystem models to represent agro-ecosystems depends on their correct integration with field observations. We report simultaneous calibration of 67 DayCent model parameters using multiple observation types through inverse modeling using the PEST parameter estimation software. Parameter estimation reduced the total sum of weighted squared residuals by 56% and improved model fit to crop productivity, soil carbon, volumetric soil water content, soil temperature, N2O, and soil3NO− compared to the default simulation. Inverse modeling substantially reduced predictive model error relative to the default model for all model predictions, except for soil 3NO− and 4NH+. Post-processing analyses provided insights into parameter–observation relationships based on parameter correlations, sensitivity and identifiability. Inverse modeling tools are shown to be a powerful way to systematize and accelerate the process of biogeochemical model interrogation, improving our understanding of model function and the underlying ecosystem biogeochemical processes that they represent.

  13. Development and analysis of a twelfth degree and order gravity model for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, E. J.; Balmino, G.

    1979-01-01

    Satellite geodesy techniques previously applied to artificial earth satellites have been extended to obtain a high-resolution gravity field for Mars. Two-way Doppler data collected by 10 Deep Space Network (DSN) stations during Mariner 9 and Viking 1 and 2 missions have been processed to obtain a twelfth degree and order spherical harmonic model for the martian gravitational potential. The quality of this model was evaluated by examining the rms residuals within the fit and the ability of the model to predict the spacecraft state beyond the fit. Both indicators show that more data and higher degree and order harmonics will be required to further refine our knowledge of the martian gravity field. The model presented shows much promise, since it resolves local gravity features which correlate highly with the martian topography. An isostatic analysis based on this model, as well as an error analysis, shows rather complete compensation on a global (long wavelength) scale. Though further model refinements are necessary to be certain, local (short wavelength) features such as the shield volcanos in Tharsis appear to be uncompensated. These are interpreted to place some bounds on the internal structure of Mars.

  14. A mixed SIR-SIS model to contain a virus spreading through networks with two degrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essouifi, Mohamed; Achahbar, Abdelfattah

    Due to the fact that the “nodes” and “links” of real networks are heterogeneous, to model computer viruses prevalence throughout the Internet, we borrow the idea of the reduced scale free network which was introduced recently. The purpose of this paper is to extend the previous deterministic two subchains of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model into a mixed Susceptible-Infected-Recovered and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIR-SIS) model to contain the computer virus spreading over networks with two degrees. Moreover, we develop its stochastic counterpart. Due to the high protection and security taken for hubs class, we suggest to treat it by using SIR epidemic model rather than the SIS one. The analytical study reveals that the proposed model admits a stable viral equilibrium. Thus, it is shown numerically that the mean dynamic behavior of the stochastic model is in agreement with the deterministic one. Unlike the infection densities i2 and i which both tend to a viral equilibrium for both approaches as in the previous study, i1 tends to the virus-free equilibrium. Furthermore, since a proportion of infectives are recovered, the global infection density i is minimized. Therefore, the permanent presence of viruses in the network due to the lower-degree nodes class. Many suggestions are put forward for containing viruses propagation and minimizing their damages.

  15. Implementing Outcome Measures Within an Enhanced Palliative Care Day Care Model.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kilonzo, Isae

    2015-04-23

    Specialist palliative care day care (SPDC) units provide an array of services to patients and their families and can increase continuity of care between inpatient and homecare settings. A multidisciplinary teamwork approach is emphasized, and different models of day care exist. Depending on the emphasis of care, the models can be social, medical, therapeutic, or mixed. We describe our experience of introducing an enhanced therapeutic specialist day care model and using both patient- and carer-rated tools to monitor patient outcomes.

  16. Kinematic modeling of a 7-degree of freedom spatial hybrid manipulator for medical surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Amanpreet; Singla, Ekta; Soni, Sanjeev; Singla, Ashish

    2018-01-01

    The prime objective of this work is to deal with the kinematics of spatial hybrid manipulators. In this direction, in 1955, Denavit and Hartenberg proposed a consistent and concise method, known as D-H parameters method, to deal with kinematics of open serial chains. From literature review, it is found that D-H parameter method is widely used to model manipulators consisting of lower pairs. However, the method leads to ambiguities when applied to closed-loop, tree-like and hybrid manipulators. Furthermore, in the dearth of any direct method to model closed-loop, tree-like and hybrid manipulators, revisions of this method have been proposed from time-to-time by different researchers. One such kind of revision using the concept of dummy frames has successfully been proposed and implemented by the authors on spatial hybrid manipulators. In that work, authors have addressed the orientational inconsistency of the D-H parameter method, restricted to body-attached frames only. In the current work, the condition of body-attached frames is relaxed and spatial frame attachment is considered to derive the kinematic model of a 7-degree of freedom spatial hybrid robotic arm, along with the development of closed-loop constraints. The validation of the new kinematic model has been performed with the help of a prototype of this 7-degree of freedom arm, which is being developed at Council of Scientific & Industrial Research-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation Chandigarh to aid the surgeon during a medical surgical task. Furthermore, the developed kinematic model is used to develop the first column of the Jacobian matrix, which helps in providing the estimate of the tip velocity of the 7-degree of freedom manipulator when the first joint velocity is known.

  17. A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Katherine S L; Ludman, Peter F; Hulme, William; de Belder, Mark A; Stables, Rodney; Chowdhary, Saqib; Mamas, Mamas A; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E

    2016-05-01

    The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried out between 2007 and 2011 in England and Wales, with 30 day mortality provided by record linkage. Candidate variables were selected on the basis of clinical consensus and data quality. Procedures in 2012 were used to perform temporal validation of the model. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were: cardiogenic shock; dialysis; and the indication for PCI and the degree of urgency with which it was performed. The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.85 on the training data and 0.86 on validation. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit on development which was maintained on validation. We have created a contemporary model for PCI that encompasses a range of clinical risk, from stable elective PCI to emergency primary PCI and cardiogenic shock. The model is easy to apply and based on data reported in national registries. It has a high degree of discrimination and is well calibrated across the risk spectrum. The examination of key outcomes in PCI audit can be improved with this risk-adjusted model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Spiral blood flows in an idealized 180-degree curved artery model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulusu, Kartik V.; Kulkarni, Varun; Plesniak, Michael W.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding of cardiovascular flows has been greatly advanced by the Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry (MRV) technique and its potential for three-dimensional velocity encoding in regions of anatomic interest. The MRV experiments were performed on a 180-degree curved artery model using a Newtonian blood analog fluid at the Richard M. Lucas Center at Stanford University employing a 3 Tesla General Electric (Discovery 750 MRI system) whole body scanner with an eight-channel cardiac coil. Analysis in two regions of the model-artery was performed for flow with Womersley number=4.2. In the entrance region (or straight-inlet pipe) the unsteady pressure drop per unit length, in-plane vorticity and wall shear stress for the pulsatile, carotid artery-based flow rate waveform were calculated. Along the 180-degree curved pipe (curvature ratio =1/7) the near-wall vorticity and the stretching of the particle paths in the vorticity field are visualized. The resultant flow behavior in the idealized curved artery model is associated with parameters such as Dean number and Womersley number. Additionally, using length scales corresponding to the axial and secondary flow we attempt to understand the mechanisms leading to the formation of various structures observed during the pulsatile flow cycle. Supported by GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE), MRV measurements in collaboration with Prof. John K. Eaton and, Dr. Chris Elkins at Stanford University.

  19. A NEW FRACTIONAL MODEL OF SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM SYSTEM, BY USING GENERALIZED DIFFERENTIAL TRANSFORM METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HASHEM SABERI NAJAFI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalized differential transform method (GDTM is a powerful method to solve the fractional differential equations. In this paper, a new fractional model for systems with single degree of freedom (SDOF is presented, by using the GDTM. The advantage of this method compared with some other numerical methods has been shown. The analysis of new approximations, damping and acceleration of systems are also described. Finally, by reducing damping and analysis of the errors, in one of the fractional cases, we have shown that in addition to having a suitable solution for the displacement close to the exact one, the system enjoys acceleration once crossing the equilibrium point.

  20. 1/N expansion in the interacting boson model. II. The neutron-proton degree of freedon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuyucak, S.; Morrison, I.

    1989-01-01

    The 1/N expansion method is used to study the neutron-proton degree of freedom in a general boson model. Employing a standard IBM-2 hamiltonian, analytic expressions for energies and electromagnetic transition rates are derived both for the symmetric and mixed-symmetry states. A formalism for F-spin analysis is developed. Effects of the g-boson and F-spin breaking in various quantities are discussed. The method is not restricted to dynamic symmetries and allows for explicit breaking of the F-spin symmetry. Thus, the formulae derived here should be useful for systematic analysis of deformed nuclei in realistic situations. 42 refs., 13 figs

  1. Expression of the degree of polarization based on the geometrical optics pBRDF model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kai; Zhu, Jingping; Liu, Hong; Du, Bingzheng

    2017-02-01

    An expression of the degree of polarization (DOP) based on the geometrical optics polarimetric bidirectional reflectance distribution function model is presented. In this expression, the DOP is related to the surface roughness and decreases at different reflection angles because diffuse reflection is taken into consideration. A shadowing/masking function introduced into the specular reflection expression makes the DOP values decrease as the angle of incidence or observation approaches grazing. Different kinds of materials were measured to validate the accuracy of this DOP expression. The measured results suggest that the errors of the DOP are reduced significantly, and the polarized reflection characteristics can be described more reasonably and accurately.

  2. An Adaptive Model for Calculating the Correlation Degree of Multiple Adjacent Signalized Intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linhong Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As an important component of the urban adaptive traffic control system, subarea partition algorithm divides the road network into some small subareas and then determines the optimal signal control mode for each signalized intersection. Correlation model is the core of subarea partition algorithm because it can quantify the correlation degree of adjacent signalized intersections and decides whether these intersections can be grouped into one subarea. In most cases, there are more than two intersections in one subarea. However, current researches only focus on the correlation model for two adjacent intersections. The objective of this study is to develop a model which can calculate the correlation degree of multiple intersections adaptively. The cycle lengths, link lengths, number of intersections, and path flow between upstream and downstream coordinated phases were selected as the contributing factors of the correlation model. Their jointly impacts on the performance of the coordinated control mode relative to the isolated control mode were further studied using numerical experiments. The paper then proposed a correlation index (CI as an alternative to relative performance. The relationship between CI and the four contributing factors was established in order to predict the correlation, which determined whether adjacent intersections could be partitioned into one subarea. A value of 0 was set as the threshold of CI. If CI was larger than 0, multiple intersections could be partitioned into one subarea; otherwise, they should be separated. Finally, case studies were conducted in a real-life signalized network to evaluate the performance of the model. The results show that the CI simulates the relative performance well and could be a reliable index for subarea partition.

  3. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for First Lactation Monthly Test-day Milk Yields using Random Regression Test Day Model in Karan Fries Cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Singh

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A single trait linear mixed random regression test-day model was applied for the first time for analyzing the first lactation monthly test-day milk yield records in Karan Fries cattle. The test-day milk yield data was modeled using a random regression model (RRM considering different order of Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect (4th order and the permanent environmental effect (5th order. Data pertaining to 1,583 lactation records spread over a period of 30 years were recorded and analyzed in the study. The variance component, heritability and genetic correlations among test-day milk yields were estimated using RRM. RRM heritability estimates of test-day milk yield varied from 0.11 to 0.22 in different test-day records. The estimates of genetic correlations between different test-day milk yields ranged 0.01 (test-day 1 [TD-1] and TD-11 to 0.99 (TD-4 and TD-5. The magnitudes of genetic correlations between test-day milk yields decreased as the interval between test-days increased and adjacent test-day had higher correlations. Additive genetic and permanent environment variances were higher for test-day milk yields at both ends of lactation. The residual variance was observed to be lower than the permanent environment variance for all the test-day milk yields.

  4. Nisin, rosemary, and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid affect the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on ready-to-eat turkey ham stored at four degrees Celsius for sixty-three days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, A; Williams, S K; Djeri, N; Hinton, A; Rodrick, G E

    2009-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the anti-Listeria and general antimicrobial properties of nisin, rosemary, and EDTA alone and in combination on Listeria monocytogenes inoculated on ready-to-eat vacuum-packaged diced turkey ham and to ascertain the effects of the treatments on pH and objective color. The turkey hams were cut into 0.5-cm pieces, inoculated with a L. monocytogenes cocktail containing 5 strains of the bacterium, and treated with either no treatment and no inoculum (negative control), inoculum only (positive control), 0.5% nisin, 20 mM EDTA, 1% rosemary, 0.5% nisin + 20 mM EDTA, 0.5% nisin + 1% rosemary, 0.5% nisin + 20 mM EDTA + 1% rosemary, or 20 mM EDTA + 1% rosemary. All samples were vacuum-packaged, stored for 63 d at 4 degrees C +/- 1 degrees C, and analyzed at 1-wk intervals for total aerobes, L. monocytogenes, lactic acid organisms, pH, and objective color. Nisin, nisin with rosemary, nisin with EDTA, and nisin with rosemary and EDTA treatments reduced (P hams treated with nisin. The EDTA and rosemary treatments alone and in combination were ineffective in inhibiting growth of L. monocytogenes. Although none of the treatments completely eliminated L. monocytogenes, the results indicated that ready-to-eat turkey ham can have significantly decreased L. monocytogenes when treated with nisin alone or in combination with rosemary or EDTA, or both.

  5. Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Petrini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567, yearling weight (n=58,124, and scrotal circumference (n=20,371 of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

  6. Multiple degree of freedom inverted pendulum dynamics: Modeling, computation, and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng-Yuan Jerry

    A pendulum is statically unstable in its upright inverted state due to the Earth's gravitational attraction which points downward. However, with proper forcing, the pendulum can be stabilized in its upright inverted state. Special interest is on periodic vertical forcing applied to the pendulum's base to stabilize it around the upright inverted equilibrium. Many researchers have studied how to stabilize the system by varying various parameters, in particular its amplitude and frequency. Most have focused on the single degree of freedom inverted pendulum case, which with linear assumption can be described via Mathieu's equation. The system stability can then be characterized by Floquet theory. Our focus is on searching for the periodic solutions inside the linearly stable region of the pendulum's inverted state when the pendulum is under proper periodic forcing. Our research shows that under appropriate excitation by controlling the forcing amplitude and frequency, the pendulum can maintain certain periodic orbits around its inverted state which we characterize in a systematic way. In this thesis, we applied four different kinds of geometric realizations of the system response: system time traces, system phase portraits, three dimensional views of the system phase portrait as a function of input forcing, and the system's power spectral density diagram. By analyzing these four diagrams simultaneously, we characterize different kinds of multi-frequency periodic behavior around the pendulum's inverted state. To further discuss the effect of the nonlinearity, we applied perturbation techniques using the normalized forcing amplitude as a perturbation parameter to carry out the approximate periodic solutions on a single degree of freedom inverted pendulum nonlinear model. We also discuss the multiple degree of freedom inverted pendulum system. Both numerical simulation and experiments were performed and detailed comparisons are discussed. Our numerical simulations show

  7. Solving large test-day models by iteration on data and preconditioned conjugate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lidauer, M; Strandén, I; Mäntysaari, E A; Pösö, J; Kettunen, A

    1999-12-01

    A preconditioned conjugate gradient method was implemented into an iteration on a program for data estimation of breeding values, and its convergence characteristics were studied. An algorithm was used as a reference in which one fixed effect was solved by Gauss-Seidel method, and other effects were solved by a second-order Jacobi method. Implementation of the preconditioned conjugate gradient required storing four vectors (size equal to number of unknowns in the mixed model equations) in random access memory and reading the data at each round of iteration. The preconditioner comprised diagonal blocks of the coefficient matrix. Comparison of algorithms was based on solutions of mixed model equations obtained by a single-trait animal model and a single-trait, random regression test-day model. Data sets for both models used milk yield records of primiparous Finnish dairy cows. Animal model data comprised 665,629 lactation milk yields and random regression test-day model data of 6,732,765 test-day milk yields. Both models included pedigree information of 1,099,622 animals. The animal model ¿random regression test-day model¿ required 122 ¿305¿ rounds of iteration to converge with the reference algorithm, but only 88 ¿149¿ were required with the preconditioned conjugate gradient. To solve the random regression test-day model with the preconditioned conjugate gradient required 237 megabytes of random access memory and took 14% of the computation time needed by the reference algorithm.

  8. Cerebellar supervised learning revisited: biophysical modeling and degrees-of-freedom control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawato, Mitsuo; Kuroda, Shinya; Schweighofer, Nicolas

    2011-10-01

    The biophysical models of spike-timing-dependent plasticity have explored dynamics with molecular basis for such computational concepts as coincidence detection, synaptic eligibility trace, and Hebbian learning. They overall support different learning algorithms in different brain areas, especially supervised learning in the cerebellum. Because a single spine is physically very small, chemical reactions at it are essentially stochastic, and thus sensitivity-longevity dilemma exists in the synaptic memory. Here, the cascade of excitable and bistable dynamics is proposed to overcome this difficulty. All kinds of learning algorithms in different brain regions confront with difficult generalization problems. For resolution of this issue, the control of the degrees-of-freedom can be realized by changing synchronicity of neural firing. Especially, for cerebellar supervised learning, the triangle closed-loop circuit consisting of Purkinje cells, the inferior olive nucleus, and the cerebellar nucleus is proposed as a circuit to optimally control synchronous firing and degrees-of-freedom in learning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling and estimation of a low degree geopotential model from terrestrial gravity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlis, Nikolaos K.

    1988-01-01

    The development of appropriate modeling and adjustment procedures for the estimation of harmonic coefficients of the geopotential, from surface gravity data was studied, in order to provide an optimum way of utilizing the terrestrial gravity information in combination solutions currently developed at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, for use in the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission. The mathematical modeling was based on the fundamental boundary condition of the linearized Molodensky boundary value problem. Atmospheric and ellipsoidal corrections were applied to the surface anomalies. Terrestrial gravity solutions were found to be in good agreement with the satellite ones over areas which are well surveyed (gravimetrically), such as North America or Australia. However, systematic differences between the terrestrial only models and GEMT1, over extended regions in Africa, the Soviet Union, and China were found. In Africa, gravity anomaly differences on the order of 20 mgals and undulation differences on the order of 15 meters, over regions extending 2000 km in diameter, occur. Comparisons of the GEMT1 implied undulations with 32 well distributed Doppler derived undulations gave an RMS difference of 2.6 m, while corresponding comparison with undulations implied by the terrestrial solution gave RMS difference on the order of 15 m, which implies that the terrestrial data in that region are substantially in error.

  10. A Model for Quantifying Sources of Variation in Test-day Milk Yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A cow's test-day milk yield is influenced by several systematic environmental effects, which have to be removed when estimating the genetic potential of an animal. The present study quantified the variation due to test date and month of test in test-day lactation yield records using full and reduced models. The data consisted ...

  11. Learning Survival Models with On-Line Simulation Activities in the Actuarial Science Degree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Fernandez-Morales

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to describe an on-line survival laboratory designed to enhance teaching and learning in the Statistics courses of the Actuarial Science Degree of the Uni-versity of Málaga. The objective of the on-line survival lab is to help students through a guided program of simulation activities with the understanding of the most important statistical concepts of the stochastic modeling of human survival, from an Actuarial point of view. The graphical interactive simulator is implemented as Java applets for the web version, and as a Javascript animation for a lite iPhone/iPod touch version. Finally, the results of a survey carried out at the end of the course are discussed to have a preliminary assessment of the students’ satisfaction with the resources, and their perception about the usefulness for their learning process.

  12. Analysis and Development of Walking Algorithm Kinematic Model for 5-Degree of Freedom Bipedal Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Wahyudi Setiono

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A design of walking diagram and the calculation of a bipedal robot have been developed. The bipedal robot was designed and constructed with several kinds of servo bracket for the legs, two feet and a hip. Each of the bipedal robot leg was 5-degrees of freedom, three pitches (hip joint, knee joint and ankle joint and two rolls (hip joint and ankle joint. The walking algorithm of this bipedal robot was based on the triangle formulation of cosine law to get the angle value at each joint. The hip height, height of the swinging leg and the step distance are derived based on linear equation. This paper discussed the kinematic model analysis and the development of the walking diagram of the bipedal robot. Kinematics equations were derived, the joint angles were simulated and coded into Arduino board to be executed to the robot.

  13. Mathematical modelling of the destruction degree of cancer under the influence of a RF hyperthermia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paruch, Marek; Turchan, Łukasz

    2018-01-01

    The article presents the mathematical modeling of the phenomenon of artificial hyperthermia which is caused by the interaction of an electric field. The electric field is induced by the applicator positioned within the biological tissue with cancer. In addition, in order to estimate the degree of tumor destruction under the influence of high temperature an Arrhenius integral has been used. The distribution of electric potential in the domain considered is described by the Laplace system of equations, while the temperature field is described by the Pennes system of equations. These problems are coupled by source function being the additional component in the Pennes equation and resulting from the electric field action. The boundary element method is applied to solve the coupled problem connected with the heating of biological tissues.

  14. Improved degree of conversion of model self-etching adhesives through their interaction with dentin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Wang, Yong

    2011-01-01

    Objective To investigate the correlation of the chemical interaction between model self-etching adhesives and dentin with the degree of conversion (DC) of the adhesives. Methods The model self-etching adhesives contained bis[2-methacryloyloxy)ethyl] phosphate (2MP) and 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) with a mass ratio of 1/1, and 0-40% water contents, respectively. The adhesives were applied either onto the prepared dentin surface or unreactive substrates (such as glass slides), agitated for 15s, then light-cured for 40s. The DCs of the adhesives were determined using micro-Raman spectral and mapping analysis. Results The DCs of the adhesives cured on the dentin substrate were found to be significantly higher than those on the unreactive glass substrate. Moreover, the DCs of the adhesives displayed a decreasing trend as the distance from the dentin surface became greater. The chemical interaction of the acidic 2MP/HEMA adhesives with the mineral apatite in dentin was proposed to play a significant role for the observations. The chemical interaction could be validated by the spectral comparison in the phosphate regions of 1100 cm−1 and 960 cm−1 in the Raman spectra. The results also revealed a notable influence of water content on the DC of adhesives. The DCs of the adhesive at 10% water content exhibited the highest DC level for both substrates. Conclusions Interaction with dentin dramatically improved the degree of conversion of self-etching adhesives. Our ability to chemically characterize the a/d interface including in situ detection of the DC distribution is very important in understanding self-etching adhesive bonding under in vivo conditions. PMID:22024375

  15. Improved degree of conversion of model self-etching adhesives through their interaction with dentine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Wang, Yong

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the correlation of the chemical interaction between model self-etching adhesives and dentine with the degree of conversion (DC) of the adhesives. The model self-etching adhesives contained bis[2-methacryloyloxy)ethyl] phosphate (2MP) and 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) with a mass ratio of 1/1, and 0-40% water contents, respectively. The adhesives were applied either onto the prepared dentine surface or unreactive substrates (such as glass slides), agitated for 15s, then light-cured for 40s. The DCs of the adhesives were determined using micro-Raman spectral and mapping analysis. The DCs of the adhesives cured on the dentine substrate were found to be significantly higher than those on the unreactive glass substrate. Moreover, the DCs of the adhesives displayed a decreasing trend as the distance from the dentine surface became greater. The chemical interaction of the acidic 2MP/HEMA adhesives with the mineral apatite in dentine was proposed to play a significant role for the observations. The chemical interaction could be validated by the spectral comparison in the phosphate regions of 1100 cm(-1) and 960 cm(-1) in the Raman spectra. The results also revealed a notable influence of water content on the DC of adhesives. The DCs of the adhesive at 10% water content exhibited the highest DC level for both substrates. Interaction with dentine dramatically improved the degree of conversion of self-etching adhesives. Our ability to chemically characterise the a/d interface including in situ detection of the DC distribution is very important in understanding self-etching adhesive bonding under in vivo conditions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Prediction of bird-day carrying capacity on a staging site: a test of depletion models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, B.A.; Gyimesi, A.; Klaassen, R.H.G.

    2006-01-01

    1. The carrying capacity of a site for migratory water birds, expressed in bird-days, can be of particular conservation value. Several attempts have been made to model this carrying capacity using ideal free distribution models such as, for instance, depletion models, in which the distribution is

  17. Influence of the model's degree of freedom on human body dynamics identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maita, Daichi; Venture, Gentiane

    2013-01-01

    In fields of sports and rehabilitation, opportunities of using motion analysis of the human body have dramatically increased. To analyze the motion dynamics, a number of subject specific parameters and measurements are required. For example the contact forces measurement and the inertial parameters of each segment of the human body are necessary to compute the joint torques. In this study, in order to perform accurate dynamic analysis we propose to identify the inertial parameters of the human body and to evaluate the influence of the model's number of degrees of freedom (DoF) on the results. We use a method to estimate the inertial parameters without torque sensor, using generalized coordinates of the base link, joint angles and external forces information. We consider a 34DoF model, a 58DoF model, as well as the case when the human is manipulating a tool (here a tennis racket). We compare the obtained in results in terms of contact force estimation.

  18. A model for assessing the degree of importance of ergonomics criteria to human machine interface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Cesar Ribeiro de; Domech More, Jesus [Universidade Estacio de Sa do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Empresarial - MADE]. E-mail: cesararaujobr@yahoo.com.br; jesus.more@estacio.br; Silva, Aretha Felix Thomaz da [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Civil. Sistemas Computacionais Orientados a Industria do Petroleo]. E-mail: aretha@coc.ufrj.br

    2007-07-01

    This paper intends to show a model to help us to incorporate ergonomics criteria into the usability of the human computer interface (HCI). The techniques based on fuzzy set theory are appropriate tools for the treatment of subjective and vague concepts that are inherent to usability for the HCI. The application consists of analysis concepts. This approach allows the use of natural language expressions of importance in ergonomics criteria estimation. The above-mentioned model shows the degree of importance of the ergonomics criteria present in the software interface used in the medical area. In this work, as entry data, the system developer opinions are used and as a result we had the hierarchy of 18 ergonomic criteria. The ergonomic criteria are those already validated by the market, which are linked to the ErgoList checklists. The fuzzy model created will allow knowing the most important criteria to health governmental companies. Its Information Technology (IT) professionals will concentrate efforts when treating the usability of the software interface and its systems. (author)

  19. A model for assessing the degree of importance of ergonomics criteria to human machine interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Cesar Ribeiro de; Domech More, Jesus; Silva, Aretha Felix Thomaz da

    2007-01-01

    This paper intends to show a model to help us to incorporate ergonomics criteria into the usability of the human computer interface (HCI). The techniques based on fuzzy set theory are appropriate tools for the treatment of subjective and vague concepts that are inherent to usability for the HCI. The application consists of analysis concepts. This approach allows the use of natural language expressions of importance in ergonomics criteria estimation. The above-mentioned model shows the degree of importance of the ergonomics criteria present in the software interface used in the medical area. In this work, as entry data, the system developer opinions are used and as a result we had the hierarchy of 18 ergonomic criteria. The ergonomic criteria are those already validated by the market, which are linked to the ErgoList checklists. The fuzzy model created will allow knowing the most important criteria to health governmental companies. Its Information Technology (IT) professionals will concentrate efforts when treating the usability of the software interface and its systems. (author)

  20. Δ degrees of freedom in trinuclei. III. The Argonne Δ model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picklesimer, A.; Rice, R.A.; Brandenburg, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Argonne Δ model is used to study the effect of one-Δ and ΔΔ degrees of freedom on the triton binding energy (E T ). Exploratory calculations decompose the J≤4 system of interest into restricted (JL2) calculations, with J≤2 and L(NΔ), L(ΔΔ)≤2, and a 130 keV attractive correction. A JL2 dispersive calculation yields E T =6.50 MeV, while a full JL2 calculation gives 7.16 MeV, revealing an attractive Δ three-body-force (3BF) contribution of 660 keV. Comparing to the nucleons-only value, E T =7.58 MeV, the size of the repulsive Δ dispersive effect is 1080 keV. The one-Δ and ΔΔ 3BF contributions are found to be 440 and 220 keV, respectively, while the corresponding full J≤4 values are 450 and 290 keV, respectively. The net J≤4 result is E T =7.29 MeV versus a nucleons-only value of 7.67 MeV: the attractive Δ 3BF contribution is not quite sufficient to cancel the 1120 keV repulsive Δ dispersive effect. The cancellation between dispersive and 3BF effects is similar to that found for the Hannover Δ model, although the residual Δ repulsive effect found for the Argonne model is non-negligible: Δ effects are found not to resolve the triton binding energy defect. It is also evident from these results that Δ dispersive effects are not adequately represented in nucleons-only models simply by force of fitting the NN data. Thus, the present results confirm the qualitative implications of our previous studies using the Hannover Δ model, including the fact that ΔΔ effects are appreciable

  1. The C4 Model Grass Setaria Is a Short Day Plant with Secondary Long Day Genetic Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doust, Andrew N; Mauro-Herrera, Margarita; Hodge, John G; Stromski, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    The effect of photoperiod (day:night ratio) on flowering time was investigated in the wild species, Setaria viridis , and in a set of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from a cross between foxtail millet ( S. italica ) and its wild ancestor green foxtail ( S. viridis ). Photoperiods totaled 24 h, with three trials of 8:16, 12:12 and 16:8 light:dark hour regimes for the RIL population, and these plus 10:14 and 14:10 for the experiments with S. viridis alone. The response of S. viridis to light intensity as well as photoperiod was assessed by duplicating photoperiods at two light intensities (300 and 600 μmol.m -2 .s -1 ). In general, day lengths longer than 12 h delayed flowering time, although flowering time was also delayed in shorter day-lengths relative to the 12 h trial, even when daily flux in high intensity conditions exceeded that of the low intensity 12 h trial. Cluster analysis showed that the effect of photoperiod on flowering time differed between sets of RILs, with some being almost photoperiod insensitive and others being delayed with respect to the population as a whole in either short (8 or 12 h light) or long (16 h light) photoperiods. QTL results reveal a similar picture, with several major QTL colocalizing between the 8 and 12 h light trials, but with a partially different set of QTL identified in the 16 h trial. Major candidate genes for these QTL include several members of the PEBP protein family that includes Flowering Locus T (FT) homologs such as OsHd3a, OsRFT1, and ZCN8/12. Thus, Setaria is a short day plant (flowering quickest in short day conditions) whose flowering is delayed by long day lengths in a manner consistent with the responses of most other members of the grass family. However, the QTL results suggest that flowering time under long day conditions uses additional genetic pathways to those used under short day conditions.

  2. The C4 Model Grass Setaria Is a Short Day Plant with Secondary Long Day Genetic Regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew N. Doust

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The effect of photoperiod (day:night ratio on flowering time was investigated in the wild species, Setaria viridis, and in a set of recombinant inbred lines (RILs derived from a cross between foxtail millet (S. italica and its wild ancestor green foxtail (S. viridis. Photoperiods totaled 24 h, with three trials of 8:16, 12:12 and 16:8 light:dark hour regimes for the RIL population, and these plus 10:14 and 14:10 for the experiments with S. viridis alone. The response of S. viridis to light intensity as well as photoperiod was assessed by duplicating photoperiods at two light intensities (300 and 600 μmol.m-2.s-1. In general, day lengths longer than 12 h delayed flowering time, although flowering time was also delayed in shorter day-lengths relative to the 12 h trial, even when daily flux in high intensity conditions exceeded that of the low intensity 12 h trial. Cluster analysis showed that the effect of photoperiod on flowering time differed between sets of RILs, with some being almost photoperiod insensitive and others being delayed with respect to the population as a whole in either short (8 or 12 h light or long (16 h light photoperiods. QTL results reveal a similar picture, with several major QTL colocalizing between the 8 and 12 h light trials, but with a partially different set of QTL identified in the 16 h trial. Major candidate genes for these QTL include several members of the PEBP protein family that includes Flowering Locus T (FT homologs such as OsHd3a, OsRFT1, and ZCN8/12. Thus, Setaria is a short day plant (flowering quickest in short day conditions whose flowering is delayed by long day lengths in a manner consistent with the responses of most other members of the grass family. However, the QTL results suggest that flowering time under long day conditions uses additional genetic pathways to those used under short day conditions.

  3. Comparison of reconstructed rapid prototyping models produced by 3-dimensional printing and conventional stone models with different degrees of crowding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Hassan, Wan Nurazreena; Yusoff, Yusnilawati; Mardi, Noor Azizi

    2017-01-01

    Rapid prototyping models can be reconstructed from stereolithographic digital study model data to produce hard-copy casts. In this study, we aimed to compare agreement and accuracy of measurements made with rapid prototyping and stone models for different degrees of crowding. The Z Printer 450 (3D Systems, Rock Hill, SC) reprinted 10 sets of models for each category of crowding (mild, moderate, and severe) scanned using a structured-light scanner (Maestro 3D, AGE Solutions, Pisa, Italy). Stone and RP models were measured using digital calipers for tooth sizes in the mesiodistal, buccolingual, and crown height planes and for arch dimension measurements. Bland-Altman and paired t test analyses were used to assess agreement and accuracy. Clinical significance was set at ±0.50 mm. Bland-Altman analysis showed the mean bias of measurements between the models to be within ±0.15 mm (SD, ±0.40 mm), but the 95% limits of agreement exceeded the cutoff point of ±0.50 mm (lower range, -0.81 to -0.41 mm; upper range, 0.34 to 0.76 mm). Paired t tests showed statistically significant differences for all planes in all categories of crowding except for crown height in the moderate crowding group and arch dimensions in the mild and moderate crowding groups. The rapid prototyping models were not clinically comparable with conventional stone models regardless of the degree of crowding. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Business model for Indian retail sector: The Café Coffee Day case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashis Mishra

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Given the distinctiveness of the Indian retail sector, and the lack of reliable data on the sector, developing an appropriate business model for the Indian retail sector is a challenge. In this exploratory study of the Café Coffee Day (CCD chain of cafes, we use corporate presentations of the organisation and interview its Chairman, Mr. V.G. Siddhartha, to develop a business model along the parameters of customer value proposition, profit formula, key processes, and key resources to develop a retail model for Coffee Day Company. We generalise the model to the Indian retail sector to improve its sustainability and scalability.

  5. Snow accumulation and ablation in different canopy structures at a plot scale: using degree-day approach and measured shortwave radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Jeníček

    2017-02-01

    The measured SWE in the plot with healthy forest was on average by 41% lower than in open area during snow accumulation period. The disturbed forest caused the SWE reduction by 22% compared to open area indicating increasing snow storage after forest defoliation. The snow ablation in healthy forest was by 32% slower compared to open area. On the contrary, the snow ablation in disturbed forest (due to the bark beetle was on average only by 7% slower than in open area. The relative decrease in incoming solar radiation in the forest compared to open area was much bigger compared to the relative decrease in snowmelt rates. This indicated that the decrease in snowmelt rates cannot be explained only by the decrease in incoming solar radiation. The model simulated best in open area and slightly worse in healthy forest. The model showed faster snowmelt after forest defoliation which also resulted in earlier snow melt-out in the disturbed forest.

  6. Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavasseri, Rajesh G.; Seetharaman, Krithika

    2009-01-01

    With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate wind speed/power forecasts. Accurate wind speed forecasts are necessary to schedule dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market. This paper examines the use of fractional-ARIMA or f-ARIMA models to model, and forecast wind speeds on the day-ahead (24 h) and two-day-ahead (48 h) horizons. The models are applied to wind speed records obtained from four potential wind generation sites in North Dakota. The forecasted wind speeds are used in conjunction with the power curve of an operational (NEG MICON, 750 kW) turbine to obtain corresponding forecasts of wind power production. The forecast errors in wind speed/power are analyzed and compared with the persistence model. Results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the persistence method. (author)

  7. Degree of anisotropy as an automated indicator of rip channels in high resolution bathymetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimble, S. M.; Houser, C.; Bishop, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    A rip current is a concentrated seaward flow of water that forms in the surf zone of a beach as a result of alongshore variations in wave breaking. Rips can carry swimmers swiftly into deep water, and they are responsible for hundreds of fatal drownings and thousands of rescues worldwide each year. These currents form regularly alongside hard structures like piers and jetties, and can also form along sandy coasts when there is a three dimensional bar morphology. This latter rip type tends to be variable in strength and location, making them arguably the most dangerous to swimmers and most difficult to identify. These currents form in characteristic rip channels in surf zone bathymetry, in which the primary axis of self-similarity is oriented shore-normal. This paper demonstrates a new method for automating identification of such rip channels in bathymetric digital surface models (DSMs) using bathymetric data collected by various remote sensing methods. Degree of anisotropy is used to detect rip channels and distinguishes between sandbars, rip channels, and other beach features. This has implications for coastal geomorphology theory and safety practices. As technological advances increase access and accuracy of topobathy mapping methods in the surf zone, frequent nearshore bathymetric DSMs could be more easily captured and processed, then analyzed with this method to result in localized, automated, and frequent detection of rip channels. This could ultimately reduce rip-related fatalities worldwide (i) in present mitigation, by identifying the present location of rip channels, (ii) in forecasting, by tracking the channel's evolution through multiple DSMs, and (iii) in rip education by improving local lifeguard knowledge of the rip hazard. Although this paper on applies analysis of degree of anisotropy to the identification of rip channels, this parameter can be applied to multiple facets of barrier island morphological analysis.

  8. A unified degree day model describes survivorship of Copitarsia corruda Pogue & Simmons (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) at different constant temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    N.N. G& #243; mez; R.C. Venette; J.R. Gould; D.F. Winograd

    2009-01-01

    Predictions of survivorship are critical to quantify the probability of establishment by an alien invasive species, but survival curves rarely distinguish between the effects of temperature on development versus senescence. We report chronological and physiological age-based survival curves for a potentially invasive noctuid, recently described as Copitarsia...

  9. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  11. Prediction modelling for trauma using comorbidity and 'true' 30-day outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouamra, Omar; Jacques, Richard; Edwards, Antoinette; Yates, David W; Lawrence, Thomas; Jenks, Tom; Woodford, Maralyn; Lecky, Fiona

    2015-12-01

    Prediction models for trauma outcome routinely control for age but there is uncertainty about the need to control for comorbidity and whether the two interact. This paper describes recent revisions to the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) risk adjustment model designed to take account of age and comorbidities. In addition linkage between TARN and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) database allows patient's outcome to be accurately identified up to 30 days after injury. Outcome at discharge within 30 days was previously used. Prospectively collected data between 2010 and 2013 from the TARN database were analysed. The data for modelling consisted of 129 786 hospital trauma admissions. Three models were compared using the area under the receiver operating curve (AuROC) for assessing the ability of the models to predict outcome, the Akaike information criteria to measure the quality between models and test for goodness-of-fit and calibration. Model 1 is the current TARN model, Model 2 is Model 1 augmented by a modified Charlson comorbidity index and Model 3 is Model 2 with ONS data on 30 day outcome. The values of the AuROC curve for Model 1 were 0.896 (95% CI 0.893 to 0.899), for Model 2 were 0.904 (0.900 to 0.907) and for Model 3 0.897 (0.896 to 0.902). No significant interaction was found between age and comorbidity in Model 2 or in Model 3. The new model includes comorbidity and this has improved outcome prediction. There was no interaction between age and comorbidity, suggesting that both independently increase vulnerability to mortality after injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. A statin a day keeps the doctor away: comparative proverb assessment modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizdrak, Anja; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objective To model the effect on UK vascular mortality of all adults over 50 years old being prescribed either a statin or an apple a day. Design Comparative proverb assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged over 50 years. Intervention Either a statin a day for people not already taking a statin or an apple a day for everyone, assuming 70% compliance and no change in calorie consumption. The modelling used routinely available UK population datasets; parameters describing the relations between statins, apples, and health were derived from meta-analyses. Main outcome measure Mortality due to vascular disease. Results The estimated annual reduction in deaths from vascular disease of a statin a day, assuming 70% compliance and a reduction in vascular mortality of 12% (95% confidence interval 9% to 16%) per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in low density lipoprotein cholesterol, is 9400 (7000 to 12 500). The equivalent reduction from an apple a day, modelled using the PRIME model (assuming an apple weighs 100 g and that overall calorie consumption remains constant) is 8500 (95% credible interval 6200 to 10 800). Conclusions Both nutritional and pharmaceutical approaches to the prevention of vascular disease may have the potential to reduce UK mortality significantly. With similar reductions in mortality, a 150 year old health promotion message is able to match modern medicine and is likely to have fewer side effects.

  13. Nitrous oxide emissions from cropland: a procedure for calibrating the DayCent biogeochemical model using inverse modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafique, Rashad; Fienen, Michael N.; Parkin, Timothy B.; Anex, Robert P.

    2013-01-01

    DayCent is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity widely used to simulate greenhouse gases (GHG), soil organic carbon and nutrients in crop, grassland, forest and savannah ecosystems. Although this model has been applied to a wide range of ecosystems, it is still typically parameterized through a traditional “trial and error” approach and has not been calibrated using statistical inverse modelling (i.e. algorithmic parameter estimation). The aim of this study is to establish and demonstrate a procedure for calibration of DayCent to improve estimation of GHG emissions. We coupled DayCent with the parameter estimation (PEST) software for inverse modelling. The PEST software can be used for calibration through regularized inversion as well as model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The DayCent model was analysed and calibrated using N2O flux data collected over 2 years at the Iowa State University Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering Research Farms, Boone, IA. Crop year 2003 data were used for model calibration and 2004 data were used for validation. The optimization of DayCent model parameters using PEST significantly reduced model residuals relative to the default DayCent parameter values. Parameter estimation improved the model performance by reducing the sum of weighted squared residual difference between measured and modelled outputs by up to 67 %. For the calibration period, simulation with the default model parameter values underestimated mean daily N2O flux by 98 %. After parameter estimation, the model underestimated the mean daily fluxes by 35 %. During the validation period, the calibrated model reduced sum of weighted squared residuals by 20 % relative to the default simulation. Sensitivity analysis performed provides important insights into the model structure providing guidance for model improvement.

  14. Coupling dynamic modeling and simulation of three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator based on piezoelectric ceramic of fuzzy PID

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dongjie; Fu, Yu; Yang, Liu

    2017-08-01

    For further research on the microparticles trajectory in the process of micromanipulation, the paper modeled on the coupling dynamic of three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator which is based on piezoelectric ceramic. In the micromanipulation, the transformation of certain movement direction can generate a corresponding change in the coupling in three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator movement, the fuzzy PID method was adopted by the control system of this study, and the modeling analysis was performed on the control system. After completing the above modeling, the simulation model is built by the MATLAB Simulink software. The simulation output results are basically in accordance with the actual trajectory, which achieve the successful research purposes of coupling dynamics model for three-degree-of-freedom micromanipulator and application of fuzzy PID method.

  15. Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) Fifth-Degree Spherical Simplex-Radial Cubature Kalman Filter for Maneuvering Target Tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hua; Wu, Wen

    2017-06-13

    For improving the tracking accuracy and model switching speed of maneuvering target tracking in nonlinear systems, a new algorithm named the interacting multiple model fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (IMM5thSSRCKF) is proposed in this paper. The new algorithm is a combination of the interacting multiple model (IMM) filter and the fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (5thSSRCKF). The proposed algorithm makes use of Markov process to describe the switching probability among the models, and uses 5thSSRCKF to deal with the state estimation of each model. The 5thSSRCKF is an improved filter algorithm, which utilizes the fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial rule to improve the filtering accuracy. Finally, the tracking performance of the IMM5thSSRCKF is evaluated by simulation in a typical maneuvering target tracking scenario. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has better tracking performance and quicker model switching speed when disposing maneuver models compared with the interacting multiple model unscented Kalman filter (IMMUKF), the interacting multiple model cubature Kalman filter (IMMCKF) and the interacting multiple model fifth-degree cubature Kalman filter (IMM5thCKF).

  16. Interacting Multiple Model (IMM Fifth-Degree Spherical Simplex-Radial Cubature Kalman Filter for Maneuvering Target Tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Liu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For improving the tracking accuracy and model switching speed of maneuvering target tracking in nonlinear systems, a new algorithm named the interacting multiple model fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (IMM5thSSRCKF is proposed in this paper. The new algorithm is a combination of the interacting multiple model (IMM filter and the fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (5thSSRCKF. The proposed algorithm makes use of Markov process to describe the switching probability among the models, and uses 5thSSRCKF to deal with the state estimation of each model. The 5thSSRCKF is an improved filter algorithm, which utilizes the fifth-degree spherical simplex-radial rule to improve the filtering accuracy. Finally, the tracking performance of the IMM5thSSRCKF is evaluated by simulation in a typical maneuvering target tracking scenario. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has better tracking performance and quicker model switching speed when disposing maneuver models compared with the interacting multiple model unscented Kalman filter (IMMUKF, the interacting multiple model cubature Kalman filter (IMMCKF and the interacting multiple model fifth-degree cubature Kalman filter (IMM5thCKF.

  17. The Ethical Imperative to Move to a Seven-Day Care Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Anthony; McDonald, Fiona; Hobson, Tania

    2016-06-01

    Whilst the nature of human illness is not determined by time of day or day of week, we currently structure health service delivery around a five-day delivery model. At least one country is endeavouring to develop a systems-based approach to planning a transition from five- to seven-day healthcare delivery models, and some services are independently instituting program reorganization to achieve these ends as research, amongst other things, highlights increased mortality and morbidity for weekend and after-hours admissions to hospitals. In this article, we argue that this issue does not merely raise instrumental concerns but also opens up a normative ethical dimension, recognizing that clinical ethical dilemmas are impacted on and created by systems of care. Using health policy ethics, we critically examine whether our health services, as currently structured, are at odds with ethical obligations for patient care and broader collective goals associated with the provision of publicly funded health services. We conclude by arguing that a critical health policy ethics perspective applying relevant ethical values and principles needs to be included when considering whether and how to transition from five-day to seven-day models for health delivery.

  18. Six-Degree-of-Freedom Sensor Fish Design: Governing Equations and Motion Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Richmond, Marshall C.; Simmons, Carver S.; Carlson, Thomas J.

    2004-08-19

    The Sensor Fish device is being used at Northwest hydropower projects to better understand the conditions fish experience during passage through hydroturbines and other dam bypass alternatives. Since its initial development in 1997, the Sensor Fish has undergone numerous design changes to improve its function and extend the range of its use. The most recent Sensor Fish design, the three degree of freedom (3DOF) device, has been used successfully to characterize the environment fish experience when passing through turbines, in spill, or in engineered fish bypass facilities at dams. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is in the process of redesigning the current 3DOF Sensor Fish device package to improve its field performance. Rate gyros will be added to the new six degree of freedom (6DOF) device so that it will be possible to observe the six linear and angular accelerations of the Sensor Fish as it passes the dam. Before the 6DOF Sensor Fish device can be developed and deployed, governing equations of motion must be developed in order to understand the design implications of instrument selection and placement within the body of the device. In this report, we describe a fairly general formulation for the coordinate systems, equations of motion, force and moment relationships necessary to simulate the 6DOF movement of an underwater body. Some simplifications are made by considering the Sensor Fish device to be a rigid, axisymmetric body. The equations of motion are written in the body-fixed frame of reference. Transformations between the body-fixed and interial reference frames are performed using a formulation based on quaternions. Force and moment relationships specific to the Sensor Fish body are currently not available. However, examples of the trajectory simulations using the 6DOF equations are presented using existing low and high-Reynolds number force and moment correlations. Animation files for the test cases are provided in an attached CD. The next

  19. Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristiansen, Tarjei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a model to forecast Nord Pool hourly day-ahead prices. The model is based on but reduced in terms of estimation parameters (from 24 sets to 1) and modified to include Nordic demand and Danish wind power as exogenous variables. We model prices across all hours in the analysis period rather than across each single hour of 24 hours. By applying three model variants on Nord Pool data, we achieve a weekly mean absolute percentage error (WMAE) of around 6–7% and an hourly mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) ranging from 8% to 11%. Out of sample results yields a WMAE and an hourly MAPE of around 5%. The models enable analysts and traders to forecast hourly day-ahead prices accurately. Moreover, the models are relatively straightforward and user-friendly to implement. They can be set up in any trading organization. - Highlights: ► Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model. ► The model is based on but with the set of parameters reduced from 24 to 1. ► The model includes Nordic demand and Danish wind power as exogenous variables. ► Hourly mean absolute percentage error ranges from 8% to 11%. ► Out of sample results yields a WMAE and an hourly MAPE of around 5%.

  20. A Constitutive Model for Unsaturated soils based on a Compressibility Framework dependent on Suction and Degree of Saturation

    OpenAIRE

    Sitarenios Panagiotis; Kavvadas Michael

    2016-01-01

    The Modified Cam Clay model is extended to account for the behaviour of unsaturated soils using Bishop’s stress. To describe the Loading – Collapse behaviour, the model incorporates a compressibility framework with suction and degree of saturation dependent compression lines. For simplicity, the present paper describes the model in the triaxial stress space with characteristic simulations of constant suction compression and triaxial tests, as well as wetting tests. The model reproduces an evo...

  1. A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pircalabu, Anca; Benth, Fred Espen

    2017-01-01

    significant evidence of tail dependence in all pairs of interconnected areas we consider. As a first application of the proposed model, we consider the pricing of financial transmission rights, and highlight how the choice of marginal distributions and copula impacts prices. As a second application we......The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR–GARCH copula...... to model pairs of day-ahead electricity prices in coupled European markets. While capturing key stylized facts empirically substantiated in the literature, this model easily allows us to 1) deviate from the assumption of normal margins and 2) include a more detailed description of the dependence between...

  2. Reduction of the number of parameters needed for a polynomial random regression test-day model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pool, M.H.; Meuwissen, T.H.E.

    2000-01-01

    Legendre polynomials were used to describe the (co)variance matrix within a random regression test day model. The goodness of fit depended on the polynomial order of fit, i.e., number of parameters to be estimated per animal but is limited by computing capacity. Two aspects: incomplete lactation

  3. Test-day models for South African dairy cattle for participation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Variance components and breeding values of production traits and somatic cell score of South African Guernsey, Ayrshire, Holstein and Jersey breeds have been estimated using a multi-lactation repeatability test-day model, including tests of the first three lactations as repeated measures and fitting the permanent ...

  4. Global energy supply the day before yesterday, the day after tomorrow, today, tomorrow - a qualitative modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, D.

    2004-01-01

    Current developments, and peak world market price levels, of oil, which add to the prices also of natural gas and other energy resources, give rise to the question whether there is any reason to expect fundamental changes and trend reversals in energy prices and on energy markets on a medium to long term basis. Attempts to find answers to such questions about the future can be helped by looking back into the more than three hundred years of global history of the development of modern industrial-sale power supply. Over that period of time, there have always been changes of boundary conditions and reversals of trends, respectively; step by step, by trial and error, a structural change has evolved from the use mainly of renewable energy resources to the primary use of fossil fuels supplemented by nuclear power. A model is presented which is able not only to describe and explain in a consistent and plausible way the global qualitative development of industrial-scale energy supply over the three different development periods, as far as contents go, between 1700 and 2100, but also allows higher resolution to be achieved in terms both of contents and time. The modeling approach is applied to the entire era of energy supply on an industrial scale, and should be seen as a representation of the specific perspective in this approach for further discussion. (orig.)

  5. A Frequency-Based Assignment Model under Day-to-Day Information Evolution of Oversaturated Conditions on a Feeder Bus Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silin Zhang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day information is increasingly being implemented in transit networks worldwide. Feeder bus service (FBS plays a vital role in a public transit network by providing feeder access to hubs and rails. As a feeder service, a space-time path for frequent passengers is decided by its dynamic strategy procedure, in which a day-to-day information self-learning mechanism is identified and analyzed from our survey data. We formulate a frequency-based assignment model considering day-to-day evolution under oversaturated conditions, which takes into account the residual capacity of bus and the comfort feelings of sitting or standing. The core of our proposed model is to allocate the passengers on each segment belonging to their own paths according to multi-utilities transformed from the time values and parametric demands, such as frequency, bus capacity, seat comfort, and stop layout. The assignment method, albeit general, allows us to formulate an equivalent optimization problem in terms of interaction between the FBS’ operation and frequent passengers’ rational behaviors. Finally, a real application case is generated to test the ability of the modeling framework capturing the theoretical consequents, serving the passengers’ dynamic externalities.

  6. Modeling DNA affinity landscape through two-round support vector regression with weighted degree kernels

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Xiaolei

    2014-12-12

    Background: A quantitative understanding of interactions between transcription factors (TFs) and their DNA binding sites is key to the rational design of gene regulatory networks. Recent advances in high-throughput technologies have enabled high-resolution measurements of protein-DNA binding affinity. Importantly, such experiments revealed the complex nature of TF-DNA interactions, whereby the effects of nucleotide changes on the binding affinity were observed to be context dependent. A systematic method to give high-quality estimates of such complex affinity landscapes is, thus, essential to the control of gene expression and the advance of synthetic biology. Results: Here, we propose a two-round prediction method that is based on support vector regression (SVR) with weighted degree (WD) kernels. In the first round, a WD kernel with shifts and mismatches is used with SVR to detect the importance of subsequences with different lengths at different positions. The subsequences identified as important in the first round are then fed into a second WD kernel to fit the experimentally measured affinities. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to increase the accuracy of the affinity prediction by applying two rounds of string kernels and by identifying a small number of crucial k-mers. The proposed method was tested by predicting the binding affinity landscape of Gcn4p in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using datasets from HiTS-FLIP. Our method explicitly identified important subsequences and showed significant performance improvements when compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Based on the identified important subsequences, we discovered two surprisingly stable 10-mers and one sensitive 10-mer which were not reported before. Further test on four other TFs in S. cerevisiae demonstrated the generality of our method. Conclusion: We proposed in this paper a two-round method to quantitatively model the DNA binding affinity landscape. Since the ability to modify

  7. Study The role of latent variables in lost working days by Structural Equation Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Heydari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Based on estimations, each year about 250 million work-related injuries and many temporary or permanent disabilities occur which most are preventable. Oil and Gas industries are among industries with high incidence of injuries in the world. The aim of this study has investigated  the role and effect of different risk management variables on lost working days (LWD in the seismic projects. Methods: This study was a retrospective, cross-sectional and systematic analysis, which was carried out on occupational accidents between 2008-2015(an 8 years period in different seismic projects for oilfield exploration at Dana Energy (Iranian Seismic Company. The preliminary sample size of the study were 487accidents. A systems analysis approach were applied by using root case analysis (RCA and structural equation modeling (SEM. Tools for the data analysis were included, SPSS23 and AMOS23  software. Results: The mean of lost working days (LWD, was calculated 49.57, the final model of structural equation modeling showed that latent variables of, safety and health training factor(-0.33, risk assessment factor(-0.55 and risk control factor (-0.61 as direct causes significantly affected of lost working days (LWD in the seismic industries (p< 0.05. Conclusion: The finding of present study revealed that combination of variables affected in lost working days (LWD. Therefore,the role of these variables in accidents should be investigated and suitable programs should be considered for them.

  8. A Mathematical Modelling Approach to One-Day Cricket Batting Orders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukiet, Bruce; Ovens, Matthews

    2006-01-01

    While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution) of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players. Key Points Batting order does effect the expected runs distribution in one-day cricket. One-day cricket has fewer data points than baseball, thus extreme values have greater effect on estimated probabilities. Dismissals rare and probabilities very small by comparison to baseball. Probability distribution for lower order batsmen is potentially skewed due to increased risk taking. Full enumeration of all possible line-ups is impractical using a single average computer. PMID:24357943

  9. Euler-Lagrange modeling for a seven degree of freedom Manipulator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muñoz Arias, Mauricio; Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The Philips experimental robot arm is a kinematically redundant manipulator which is mainly aimed at increasing dexterity. The robot manipulator, developed by Philips Applied Technologies for domotic applications, has seven degrees of freedom and includes humanoid characteristics of a upper limb

  10. Relations between CT perfusion parameters and degree of hepatic ischemia reperfusion injury in a rabbit model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Chengwei; Shen Sandi; Yi Xianlin; Zhang Zhonglin; Liu Zaiyi; Liang Changhong

    2011-01-01

    group [(24.1±7.5)%] (F=43.664, P<0.01). But, the perfusion parameters in the relatively normal area of IRI groups showed decline compared with sham group. The levels of AST, ALT and ALP in IRI groups were significantly higher than those in the sham group (P<0.05). In poorly enhancing tissues, TLP and HPP of IRI groups were inversely correlated with AST and ALP respectively (P<0.01), and HPI was closely related to the increase of AST (r=0.751, P<0.01). Conclusion: These results demonstrate CT perfusion is sensitive to detect the hemodynamic changes. Perfusion parameters are closely correlated to the degree of liver injury in the rabbit IRI model. (authors)

  11. A MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH TO ONE-DAY CRICKET BATTING ORDERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthews Ovens1

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players

  12. Predictive value and modeling analysis of MSCT signs in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) to pathological risk degree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J-K

    2017-03-01

    By analyzing MSCT (multi-slice computed tomography) signs with different risks in gastrointestinal stromal tumors, this paper aimed to discuss the predictive value and modeling analysis of MSCT signs in GISTs (gastrointestinal stromal tumor) to pathological risk degree. 100 cases of primary GISTs with abdominal and pelvic MSCT scan were involved in this study. All MSCT scan findings and enhanced findings were analyzed and compared among cases with different risk degree of pathology. Then GISTs diagnostic model was established by using support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, and its diagnostic value was evaluated as well. All lesions were solitary, among which there were 46 low-risk cases, 24 medium-risk cases and 30 high-risk cases. For all high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk GISTs, there were statistical differences in tumor growth pattern, size, shape, fat space, with or without calcification, ulcer, enhancement method and peritumoral and intratumoral vessels (pvalue at each period (plain scan, arterial phase, venous phase) (p>0.05). The apparent difference lied in plain scan, arterial phase and venous phase for each risk degree. The diagnostic accuracy of SVM diagnostic model established with 10 imaging features as indexes was 70.0%, and it was especially reliable when diagnosing GISTs of high or low risk. Preoperative analysis of MSCT features is clinically significant for its diagnosis of risk degree and prognosis; GISTs diagnostic model established on the basis of SVM possesses high diagnostic value.

  13. Modelling a Nurse Shift Schedule with Multiple Preference Ranks for Shifts and Days-Off

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Cheng Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available When it comes to nurse shift schedules, it is found that the nursing staff have diverse preferences about shift rotations and days-off. The previous studies only focused on the most preferred work shift and the number of satisfactory days-off of the schedule at the current schedule period but had few discussions on the previous schedule periods and other preference levels for shifts and days-off, which may affect fairness of shift schedules. As a result, this paper proposes a nurse scheduling model based upon integer programming that takes into account constraints of the schedule, different preference ranks towards each shift, and the historical data of previous schedule periods to maximize the satisfaction of all the nursing staff's preferences about the shift schedule. The main contribution of the proposed model is that we consider that the nursing staff’s satisfaction level is affected by multiple preference ranks and their priority ordering to be scheduled, so that the quality of the generated shift schedule is more reasonable. Numerical results show that the planned shifts and days-off are fair and successfully meet the preferences of all the nursing staff.

  14. Modeling the transient security constraints of natural gas network in day-ahead power system scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Jingwei; Zhang, Ning; Kang, Chongqing

    2017-01-01

    The rapid deployment of gas-fired generating units makes the power system more vulnerable to failures in the natural gas system. To reduce the risk of gas system failure and to guarantee the security of power system operation, it is necessary to take the security constraints of natural gas...... accurately, they are hard to be embedded into the power system scheduling model, which consists of algebraic equations and inequations. This paper addresses this dilemma by proposing an algebraic transient model of natural gas network which is similar to the branch-node model of power network. Based...... pipelines into account in the day-ahead power generation scheduling model. However, the minute- and hour-level dynamic characteristics of gas systems prevents an accurate decision-making simply with the steady-state gas flow model. Although the partial differential equations depict the dynamics of gas flow...

  15. [Day-care mother--a successful model of child rearing?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schetelig, H

    1977-02-17

    The scientific reports published so far on the project "day care mothering" do not allow to draw scientific conclusions, whether this educational model can achieve nearly equal results as family education. The author critisises, that such a clame is made. It seems necessary, to pay more importance to the function of the mother for her children, to give the children a sound emotional basis for their future development.

  16. Two degree of freedom internal model control-PID design for LFC of power systems via logarithmic approximations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay; Chattterjee, Kalyan; Vishwakarma, C B

    2018-01-01

    Load frequency controller has been designed for reduced order model of single area and two-area reheat hydro-thermal power system through internal model control - proportional integral derivative (IMC-PID) control techniques. The controller design method is based on two degree of freedom (2DOF) internal model control which combines with model order reduction technique. Here, in spite of taking full order system model a reduced order model has been considered for 2DOF-IMC-PID design and the designed controller is directly applied to full order system model. The Logarithmic based model order reduction technique is proposed to reduce the single and two-area high order power systems for the application of controller design.The proposed IMC-PID design of reduced order model achieves good dynamic response and robustness against load disturbance with the original high order system. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Location choice in the context of multi-day activity-travel patterns : model development and empirical results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arentze, T.A.; Ettema, D.F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    Multi-day activity-based models of travel demand are receiving increasing interest recently as successors of existing single-day activity-based models. In this article, we argue that predicting activity location choice-sets can no longer be ignored when multi-day time frames are adopted in these

  18. CONCEPT MODEL OF CREATION AND EVALUATION OF THE DEGREE OF FOCUS-ON-CLIENTS OF THE ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladygina Ekaterina Evgen'evna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the problem of ensuring competitive capacity of an enterprise, and identifies the reserves for increasing it. The focus-on-clients of an enterprise was identified to be the main direction for increasing the competitive capacity. This article features the parameters for assessment of the degree of focus-on-clients of an enterprise, as well as formulae for the said assessment. It also presents methods to evaluate the priority of the criteria. The article contains the model created for evaluating the development of focus-on-clients of the enterprise. This model allows to assess the parameters that influence the degree of focus-on-clients, priority of such parameters, and identify the reserves for improving them. In particular, method for calculating quantitative parameters by converting qualitative parameters into quantitative was introduced. In addition, plan of activities aimed at improving the degree of focus-on-clients and, therefore, competitive capacity of the enterprise, is presented. The article features formulae, functional relations, and calculation of all parameters as well. The model for assessment and development of focus-on-customers presented in the work defines the degree of conformance between the selected strategy and accounting for consumers' preferences when the plan of activities aimed at ensuring competitive capacity of the enterprise is implemented.

  19. A Constitutive Model for Unsaturated soils based on a Compressibility Framework dependent on Suction and Degree of Saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitarenios Panagiotis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Modified Cam Clay model is extended to account for the behaviour of unsaturated soils using Bishop’s stress. To describe the Loading – Collapse behaviour, the model incorporates a compressibility framework with suction and degree of saturation dependent compression lines. For simplicity, the present paper describes the model in the triaxial stress space with characteristic simulations of constant suction compression and triaxial tests, as well as wetting tests. The model reproduces an evolving post yield compressibility under constant suction compression, and thus, can adequately describe a maximum of collapse.

  20. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Geochemical modelling of present-day groundwaters. Final Report - Volume 12

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, D A [The John Hopkins Univ, Dept of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The main purpose of this report is to summarize geochemical modeling studies of the present-day Koongarra groundwaters. Information on the present-day geochemistry and geochemical processes at Koongarra forms a basis for a present-day analogue for nuclear waste migration. The present-day analogue is built on studies of the mineralogy and petrology of the Koongarra deposit, and chemical analyses of present-day groundwaters from the deposit. The overall approach taken in the present study has been to carry out a series of aqueous speciation and state of saturation calculations, including chemical mass transfer calculations, to address the possible control over the chemistry of the present-day for the groundwaters at Koongarra. The most important implication of the present study for the migration of radionuclides is the strong role played by the water-rock interactions, both above and below the water table, influencing the overall chemical evolution of the groundwaters. Thus, the results show that the chemical evolution of waters is strongly controlled by the initial availability of CO{sub 2} and the mineral assemblage encountered, which together determine the major element evolution of the waters by controlling the pH. The relative rates of evolution of the pH and the oxidation state of the groundwaters are also critical to the mobility of uranium. The shallow Koongarra waters are sufficiently oxidising that they can dissolve and transport uranium even under acidic conditions. Under the more reducing condition of the deep groundwaters, is the pH level that permits uranium transport as carbonate complexes. However, if the oxidation state decreases to much lower levels, it would be expected that uranium become immobile. All the speciation and state of saturation calculations carried out in the present study are available from the author, on request 22 refs., 7 tabs., 18 figs.

  1. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Geochemical modelling of present-day groundwaters. Final Report - Volume 12

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, D. A. [The John Hopkins Univ, Dept of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore (United States)

    1992-12-31

    The main purpose of this report is to summarize geochemical modeling studies of the present-day Koongarra groundwaters. Information on the present-day geochemistry and geochemical processes at Koongarra forms a basis for a present-day analogue for nuclear waste migration. The present-day analogue is built on studies of the mineralogy and petrology of the Koongarra deposit, and chemical analyses of present-day groundwaters from the deposit. The overall approach taken in the present study has been to carry out a series of aqueous speciation and state of saturation calculations, including chemical mass transfer calculations, to address the possible control over the chemistry of the present-day for the groundwaters at Koongarra. The most important implication of the present study for the migration of radionuclides is the strong role played by the water-rock interactions, both above and below the water table, influencing the overall chemical evolution of the groundwaters. Thus, the results show that the chemical evolution of waters is strongly controlled by the initial availability of CO{sub 2} and the mineral assemblage encountered, which together determine the major element evolution of the waters by controlling the pH. The relative rates of evolution of the pH and the oxidation state of the groundwaters are also critical to the mobility of uranium. The shallow Koongarra waters are sufficiently oxidising that they can dissolve and transport uranium even under acidic conditions. Under the more reducing condition of the deep groundwaters, is the pH level that permits uranium transport as carbonate complexes. However, if the oxidation state decreases to much lower levels, it would be expected that uranium become immobile. All the speciation and state of saturation calculations carried out in the present study are available from the author, on request 22 refs., 7 tabs., 18 figs.

  2. Associate Degree Nursing: Model Prerequisites Validation Study. California Community College Associate Degree Programs by The Center for Student Success, A Health Care Initiative Sponsored Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Brad C.; Spurling, Steven; Armstrong, William A.

    California faces a severe nursing shortage, with the number of registered nurses far below what is required to avert a potential state health care crisis. The Associate Degree Nursing (ADN) Project is a joint project involving scholars, educational researchers, and analysts from the Center for Student Success (CSS) housed at City College of San…

  3. HRD Degrees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geber, Beverly

    1987-01-01

    The author describes the growing movement toward accreditation for human resources development professionals. She covers the issue of diversity, undergraduate versus graduate degrees, and future trends. (CH)

  4. Evaluation of the DayCent model to predict carbon fluxes in French crop sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Kenji; Martin, Manuel P.; Zhang, Yao; Bernoux, Martial; Chapuis-Lardy, Lydie

    2017-04-01

    Croplands in temperate regions are an important component of the carbon balance and can act as a sink or a source of carbon, depending on pedoclimatic conditions and management practices. Therefore the evaluation of carbon fluxes in croplands by modelling approach is relevant in the context of global change. This study was part of the Comete-Global project funded by the multi-Partner call FACCE JPI. Carbon fluxes, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), leaf area index (LAI), biomass, and grain production were simulated at the site level in three French crop experiments from the CarboEurope project. Several crops were studied, like winter wheat, rapeseed, barley, maize, and sunflower. Daily NEE was measured with eddy covariance and could be partitioned between gross primary production (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER). Measurements were compared to DayCent simulations, a process-based model predicting plant production and soil organic matter turnover at daily time step. We compared two versions of the model: the original one with a simplified plant module and a newer version that simulates LAI. Input data for modelling were soil properties, climate, and management practices. Simulations of grain yields and biomass production were acceptable when using optimized crop parameters. Simulation of NEE was also acceptable. GPP predictions were improved with the newer version of the model, eliminating temporal shifts that could be observed with the original model. TER was underestimated by the model. Predicted NEE was more sensitive to soil tillage and nitrogen applications than measured NEE. DayCent was therefore a relevant tool to predict carbon fluxes in French crops at the site level. The introduction of LAI in the model improved its performance.

  5. Estimativa de graus-dia em função de altitude e latitude para o estado de São Paulo Degree-day estimation in respect to altitude and latitude for São Paulo State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário J. Pedro Júnior

    1977-01-01

    Full Text Available O grau-dia é uma unidade térmica utilizada, principalmente, na determinação de épocas de plantio e colheita dos vegetais, contribuindo para uma agricultura racional. Pode ser estimado através de dados termométricos, ou seja, de médias mensais de temperaturas máximas e mínimas, obtidas em abrigos meteorológicos padrões, para regiões climaticamente homogêneas. No presente trabalho foi utilizada a temperatura base de 10° C, abaixo da qual grande parte das plantas anuais não têm bom desenvolvimento. Devido à pequena quantidade de estações meteorológicas no Estado, determinaram-se equações de regressão múltipla, pelo método dos quadrados mínimos, para a estimativa do total mensal de graus-dia em função da altitude e latitude da localidade. Os resultados obtidos mostram que tal metodologia pode ser empregada no Estado de São Paulo, com razoável probabilidade de acerto, na estimativa dos graus-dia, podendo ser usados na determinação de épocas de plantio e colheita.Multiple regression equations were developed to determine the total monthly degree-days in function of altitude (meters and latitude (minutes, in order to estimate the amount of heat unit for annual crops in localities where meteorological data are not available. The degree-day was determined through thermometric data, using monthly mean values of maximum and minimum temperatures obtained in several meteorological stations of São Paulo State. The base temperature of 10° C, below which great part of the crops does not nave a good development was used to determine the heat-units.

  6. Is there value in retrospective 90-day bundle payment models for shoulder arthroplasty procedures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odum, Susan M; Hamid, Nady; Van Doren, Bryce A; Spector, Leo R

    2018-05-01

    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative was implemented as part of the Affordable Care Act. We implemented a retrospective payment model 2 for a 90-day total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) episode to assess the value of TSA BPCI at our private practice. Expenditures and postacute event rates of 132 fee-for-service (FFS) patients who underwent a TSA operation between 2009 and 2012 were compared with 333 BPCI patients who had a TSA operation in 2015. The 90-day postacute events included an inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF), skilled nursing facility (SNF), and home health (HH) admissions and readmissions. Expenditures were converted to 2016 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. Wilcoxon tests and multivariate generalized estimating equation were used to assess independent cost-drivers. The median FFS expenditure was $21,157 (interquartile range, $16,894-$30,748) compared with $17,894 (interquartile range, $15,796-$20,894) for BPCI (P model, we found BPCI had a 4% decrease in expenditures (P = .08). All postacute events were independently associated with higher expenditures. Our private practice implemented cost-containment practices, including clinical guidelines, patient navigators, and a BPCI management team. IRF and SNF utilization and the 90-day readmission rate significantly decreased. As a result, we were able to control the postacute spending, which resulted in decreased costs of performing TSA surgery. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Six-degree-of-freedom Sensor Fish design - Governing equations and motion modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richmond, M. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Simmons, C. S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, T. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The Sensor Fish device is being used at Northwest hydropower projects to better understand the conditions fish experience during passage through hydro turbines and other dam bypass alternatives. Since its initial development in 1997, the Sensor Fish has undergone numerous design changes to improve its function and extend the range of its use. The most recent Sensor Fish design, the three degree of freedom (3DOF) device, has been used successfully to characterize the environment fish experience when passing through turbines, in spill, or in engineered fish bypass facilities at dams. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is in the process of redesigning the current 3DOF Sensor Fish device package to improve its field performance. Rate gyros will be added to the new six degree of freedom (6DOF) device so that it will be possible to observe the six linear and angular accelerations of the Sensor Fish as it passes the dam. Before the 6DOF Sensor Fish device can be developed and deployed, governing equations of motion must be developed in order to understand the design implications of instrument selection and placement within the body of the device. The report describes a fairly general formulation for the coordinate systems, equations of motion, force and moment relationships necessary to simulate the 6DOF movement of an underwater body.

  8. Plasma iron levels appraised 15 days after spinal cord injury in a limb movement animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, F M; Esteves, A M; Tufik, S; de Mello, M T

    2011-03-01

    Experimental, controlled trial. The purpose of this study was to evaluate plasma iron and transferrin levels in a limb movement animal model with spinal cord injury (SCI). Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Departamento de Psicobiologia. In all, 72 male Wistar rats aged 90 days were divided into four groups: (1) acute SCI (1 day, SCI1), (2) 3 days post-SCI (SCI3), (3) 7 days post-SCI (SCI7) and (4) 15 days post-SCI (SCI15). Each of these groups had corresponding control (CTRL) and SHAM groups. Plasma iron and transferrin levels of the different groups were analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's test. We found a significant reduction in iron plasma levels after SCI compared with the CTRL group: SCI1 (CTRL: 175±10.58 μg dl(-1); SCI: 108.28±11.7 μg dl(-1)), SCI3 (CTRL: 195.5±11.00 μg dl(-1); SCI: 127.88±12.63 μg dl(-1)), SCI7 (CTRL: 186±2.97 μg dl(-1); SCI: 89.2±15.39 μg dl(-1)) and SCI15 (CTRL: 163±5.48 μg dl(-1); SCI: 124.44±10.30 μg dl(-1)) (P<0.05; ANOVA). The SHAM1 group demonstrated a reduction in iron plasma after acute SCI (CTRL: 175±10.58 μg dl(-1); SHAM: 114.60±7.81 μg dl(-1)) (P<0.05; ANOVA). Reduced iron metabolism after SCI may be one of the mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of sleep-related movement disorders.

  9. Genotype by environment interaction for 450-day weight of Nelore cattle analyzed by reaction norm models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newton T. Pégolo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Genotype by environment interactions (GEI have attracted increasing attention in tropical breeding programs because of the variety of production systems involved. In this work, we assessed GEI in 450-day adjusted weight (W450 Nelore cattle from 366 Brazilian herds by comparing traditional univariate single-environment model analysis (UM and random regression first order reaction norm models for six environmental variables: standard deviations of herd-year (RRMw and herd-year-season-management (RRMw-m groups for mean W450, standard deviations of herd-year (RRMg and herd-year-season-management (RRMg-m groups adjusted for 365-450 days weight gain (G450 averages, and two iterative algorithms using herd-year-season-management group solution estimates from a first RRMw-m and RRMg-m analysis (RRMITw-m and RRMITg-m, respectively. The RRM results showed similar tendencies in the variance components and heritability estimates along environmental gradient. Some of the variation among RRM estimates may have been related to the precision of the predictor and to correlations between environmental variables and the likely components of the weight trait. GEI, which was assessed by estimating the genetic correlation surfaces, had values < 0.5 between extreme environments in all models. Regression analyses showed that the correlation between the expected progeny differences for UM and the corresponding differences estimated by RRM was higher in intermediate and favorable environments than in unfavorable environments (p < 0.0001.

  10. PROBE OF CONVOY LORRY’S ROADABILITY ON MODEL WITH FOUR FREEDOM DEGREES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dyachuk

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of curvilinear movement of the lorry convoy is considered. The mathematical model of movement of two links flat system is developed; the software in the language of technical computing MATLAB is created; results of movement modeling on an example of jointed structure MAZ-643008 + NEFAZ-96931 taking into account distribution of steered wheels rotation angles and elastic properties of tires of wheels are analyzed.

  11. 3D instantaneous dynamics modeling of present-day Aegean subduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glerum, Anne; Spakman, Wim; van Hinsbergen, Douwe; Pranger, Casper

    2017-04-01

    To study the sensitivity of surface observables to subduction and mantle flow, i.e. the coupling of crustal tectonics and the underlying mantle dynamics, we have developed 3D numerical models of the instantaneous crust-mantle dynamics of the eastern Mediterranean. These models comprise both a realistic crust-lithosphere system and the underlying mantle. The focus for this presentation lies on the regional crustal flow response to the present-day Aegean subduction system. Our curved model domain measures 40°x40°x2900km with the Aegean subduction system taken as the geographic center. Model set-ups are based on geological and geophysical data of the eastern Mediterranean. We first create a 3D synthetic geometry of the crust-lithosphere system in a stand-alone program, including the present-day configuration of the plates in the region and crust and lithosphere thickness variations abstracted from Moho and LAB maps (Faccenna et al., 2014, Carafa et al., 2015). In addition we construct the geometry of the Aegean slab from a seismic tomography model (UU-P07; Amaru, 2007) and earthquake hypocenters (NCEDC, 2014). Geometries are then imported into the finite element code ASPECT (Kronbichler et al., 2012) using specially designed plugins. The mantle initial temperature conditions can include deviations from an adiabatic profile obtained from conversion of the UU-P07 seismic velocity anomalies to temperature anomalies using a depth-dependent scaling (Karato, 2008). We model compressible mantle flow for which material properties are obtained from thermodynamics P-T lookup-tables (Perple_X, Connolly, 2009) in combination with nonlinear viscoplastic rheology laws. Sublithospheric flow through the lateral model boundaries is left free via open boundary conditions (Chertova et al., 2012), while plate motion is prescribed at the model sides in terms of relative as well as absolute plate motion velocities (e.g. Doubrovine et al., 2012). So far, we used a free-slip surface, but

  12. Predicting psychiatric readmission: sex-specific models to predict 30-day readmission following acute psychiatric hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, Lucy Church; Gruneir, Andrea; Fung, Kinwah; Herrmann, Nathan; Kurdyak, Paul; Lin, Elizabeth; Rochon, Paula A; Seitz, Dallas; Taylor, Valerie H; Vigod, Simone N

    2018-02-01

    Psychiatric readmission is a common negative outcome. Predictors of readmission may differ by sex. This study aimed to derive and internally validate sex-specific models to predict 30-day psychiatric readmission. We used population-level health administrative data to identify predictors of 30-day psychiatric readmission among women (n = 33,353) and men (n = 32,436) discharged from all psychiatric units in Ontario, Canada (2008-2011). Predictor variables included sociodemographics, health service utilization, and clinical characteristics. Using derivation data sets, multivariable logistic regression models were fit to determine optimal predictive models for each sex separately. Results were presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The multivariable models were then applied in the internal validation data sets. The 30-day readmission rates were 9.3% (women) and 9.1% (men). Many predictors were consistent between women and men. For women only, personality disorder (aOR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03-1.42) and positive symptom score (aOR 1.41, 95% CI 1.09-1.82 for score of 1 vs. 0; aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.26-1.64 for ≥ 2 vs. 0) increased odds of readmission. For men only, self-care problems at admission (aOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.06-1.36) and discharge (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.26-1.64 for score of 1 vs. 0; aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.17-2.74 for 2 vs. 0), and mild anxiety rating (score of 1 vs. 0: aOR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.64, derivation model only) increased odds of readmission. Models had moderate discriminative ability in derivation and internal validation samples for both sexes (c-statistics 0.64-0.65). Certain key predictors of psychiatric readmission differ by sex. This knowledge may help to reduce psychiatric hospital readmission rates by focusing interventions.

  13. Degrees of Cooperation in Household Consumption Models : A Revealed Preference Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cherchye, L.J.H.; Demuynck, T.; de Rock, B.

    2009-01-01

    We develop a revealed preference approach to analyze non-unitary con- sumption models with intrahousehold allocations deviating from the cooper- ative (or Pareto e¢ cient) solution. At a theoretical level, we establish re- vealed preference conditions of household consumption models with varying

  14. Analysis of isometric cervical strength with a nonlinear musculoskeletal model with 48 degrees of freedom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Bruijn, E.; Van der Helm, F.C.T.; Happee, R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Musculoskeletal models served to analyze head–neck motion and injury during automotive impact. Although muscle activation is known to affect the kinematic response, a model with properly validated muscle contributions does not exist to date. The goal of this study was to enhance a

  15. Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Cheng-Chang

    2012-01-01

    The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

  16. A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corro Ramos, Isaac; van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Feenstra, Talitha L; Al, Maiwenn J

    2017-09-01

    The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of graphs and point estimates. To discuss the applicability of existing validation techniques and to present a new method for quantifying the degrees of validity statistically, which is useful for decision makers. A new Bayesian method is proposed to determine how well HE model outcomes compare with empirical data. Validity is based on a pre-established accuracy interval in which the model outcomes should fall. The method uses the outcomes of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and results in a posterior distribution around the probability that HE model outcomes can be regarded as valid. We use a published diabetes model (Modelling Integrated Care for Diabetes based on Observational data) to validate the outcome "number of patients who are on dialysis or with end-stage renal disease." Results indicate that a high probability of a valid outcome is associated with relatively wide accuracy intervals. In particular, 25% deviation from the observed outcome implied approximately 60% expected validity. Current practice in HE model validation can be improved by using an alternative method based on assessing whether the model outcomes fit to empirical data at a predefined level of accuracy. This method has the advantage of assessing both model bias and parameter uncertainty and resulting in a quantitative measure of the degree of validity that penalizes models predicting the mean of an outcome correctly but with overly wide credible intervals. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Can we Use Low-Cost 360 Degree Cameras to Create Accurate 3d Models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Previtali, M.; Roncoroni, F.

    2018-05-01

    360 degree cameras capture the whole scene around a photographer in a single shot. Cheap 360 cameras are a new paradigm in photogrammetry. The camera can be pointed to any direction, and the large field of view reduces the number of photographs. This paper aims to show that accurate metric reconstructions can be achieved with affordable sensors (less than 300 euro). The camera used in this work is the Xiaomi Mijia Mi Sphere 360, which has a cost of about 300 USD (January 2018). Experiments demonstrate that millimeter-level accuracy can be obtained during the image orientation and surface reconstruction steps, in which the solution from 360° images was compared to check points measured with a total station and laser scanning point clouds. The paper will summarize some practical rules for image acquisition as well as the importance of ground control points to remove possible deformations of the network during bundle adjustment, especially for long sequences with unfavorable geometry. The generation of orthophotos from images having a 360° field of view (that captures the entire scene around the camera) is discussed. Finally, the paper illustrates some case studies where the use of a 360° camera could be a better choice than a project based on central perspective cameras. Basically, 360° cameras become very useful in the survey of long and narrow spaces, as well as interior areas like small rooms.

  18. Io's Magnetospheric Interaction: An MHD Model with Day-Night Asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabin, K.; Combi, M. R.; Gombosi, T. I.; DeZeeuw, D. L.; Hansen, K. C.; Powell, K. G.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we present the results of all improved three-dimensional MHD model for Io's interaction with Jupiter's magnetosphere. We have included the day-night asymmetry into the spatial distribution of our mass-loading, which allowed us to reproduce several smaller features or the Galileo December 1995 data set. The calculation is performed using our newly modified description of the pick-up processes that accounts for the effects of the corotational electric field existing in the Jovian magnetosphere. This change in the formulation of the source terms for the MHD equations resulted in significant improvements in the comparison with the Galileo measurements. We briefly discuss the limitations of our model and possible future improvements.

  19. Optimal Day-ahead Charging Scheduling of Electric Vehicles through an Aggregative Game Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Huang, Shaojun

    2017-01-01

    The electric vehicle (EV) market has been growing rapidly around the world. With large scale deployment of EVs in power systems, both the grid and EV owners will benefit if the flexible demand of EV charging is properly managed through the electricity market. When EV charging demand is considerable...... in a grid, it will impact spot prices in the electricity market and consequently influence the charging scheduling itself. The interaction between the spot prices and the EV demand needs to be considered in the EV charging scheduling, otherwise it will lead to a higher charging cost. A day-ahead EV charging...... scheduling based on an aggregative game model is proposed in this paper. The impacts of the EV demand on the electricity prices are formulated with the game model in the scheduling considering possible actions of other EVs. The existence and uniqueness of the pure strategy Nash equilibrium are proved...

  20. Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

    2017-08-01

    Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.

  1. Regression models describing Rosa hybrida response to day/night temperature and photosynthetic photon flux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, D.A.; Hammer, P.A.

    1991-01-01

    A central composite rotatable design was used to estimate quadratic equations describing the relationship of irradiance, as measured by photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), and day (DT) and night (NT) temperatures to the growth and development of Rosa hybrida L. in controlled environments. Plants were subjected to 15 treatment combinations of the PPF, DT, and NT according to the coding of the design matrix. Day and night length were each 12 hours. Environmental factor ranges were chosen to include conditions representative of winter and spring commercial greenhouse production environments in the midwestern United States. After an initial hard pinch, 11 plant growth characteristics were measured every 10 days and at flowering. Four plant characteristics were recorded to describe flower bud development. Response surface equations were displayed as three-dimensional plots, with DT and NT as the base axes and the plant character on the z-axis while PPF was held constant. Response surfaces illustrated the plant response to interactions of DT and NT, while comparisons between plots at different PPF showed the overall effect of PPF. Canonical analysis of all regression models revealed the stationary point and general shape of the response surface. All stationary points of the significant models were located outside the original design space, and all but one surface was a saddle shape. Both the plots and analysis showed greater stem diameter, as well as higher fresh and dry weights of stems, leaves, and flower buds to occur at flowering under combinations of low DT (less than or equal to 17C) and low NT (less than or equal to 14C). However, low DT and NT delayed both visible bud formation and development to flowering. Increased PPF increased overall flower stem quality by increasing stem diameter and the fresh and dry weights of all plant parts at flowering, as well as decreased time until visible bud formation and flowering. These results summarize measured development at

  2. Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. Andrade

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

  3. Stochastic optimal control of non-stationary response of a single-degree-of-freedom vehicle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, S.; Raju, G. V.

    1990-09-01

    An active suspension system to control the non-stationary response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) vehicle model with variable velocity traverse over a rough road is investigated. The suspension is optimized with respect to ride comfort and road holding, using stochastic optimal control theory. The ground excitation is modelled as a spatial homogeneous random process, being the output of a linear shaping filter to white noise. The effect of the rolling contact of the tyre is considered by an additional filter in cascade. The non-stationary response with active suspension is compared with that of a passive system.

  4. Exact and Direct Modeling Technique for Rotor-Bearing Systems with Arbitrary Selected Degrees-of-Freedom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilin Chen

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available An exact and direct modeling technique is proposed for modeling of rotor-bearing systems with arbitrary selected degrees-of-freedom. This technique is based on the combination of the transfer and dynamic stiffness matrices. The technique differs from the usual combination methods in that the global dynamic stiffness matrix for the system or the subsystem is obtained directly by rearranging the corresponding global transfer matrix. Therefore, the dimension of the global dynamic stiffness matrix is independent of the number of the elements or the substructures. In order to show the simplicity and efficiency of the method, two numerical examples are given.

  5. Infliximab's influence on anastomotic strength and degree of inflammation in intestinal surgery in a rabbit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frostberg, Erik; Ström, Petter; Gerke, Oke

    2014-01-01

    and conclusions. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a single dose infliximab has an adverse effect on the anastomotic healing process, observed as reduced anastomotic breaking strength and histopathologically verified lower grade of inflammatory response, in the small intestine of a rabbit......BACKGROUND: Infliximab, a TNF-alpha inhibitor, is a potent anti-inflammatory drug in the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases. Recent studies have investigated the effect of infliximab treatment on postoperative complications such as anastomotic leakage, however, with conflicting results...... of infliximab, given one week prior to surgery, does not have an impact on the anastomotic breaking strength on the third postoperative day in the small intestine of rabbits....

  6. Infliximab's influence on anastomotic strength and degree of inflammation in intestinal surgery in a rabbit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frostberg, Erik; Ström, Petter; Gerke, Oke

    2014-01-01

    and conclusions. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a single dose infliximab has an adverse effect on the anastomotic healing process, observed as reduced anastomotic breaking strength and histopathologically verified lower grade of inflammatory response, in the small intestine of a rabbit....... METHODS: Thirty New Zealand rabbits (median weight 2.5 kg) were allocated to treatment with an intravenous bolus of either 10 mg/kg infliximab (n = 15) or placebo (n = 15). One week later all rabbits underwent two separate end-to-end anastomoses in the jejunum under general anesthesia. At postoperative...... day three, the anastomotic breaking strength was determined and histopathological changes were examined. RESULTS: The mean value of anastomotic breaking strength in the placebo group was 1.89 +/- 0.36 N and the corresponding value was 1.81 +/- 0.33 N in the infliximab treated rabbits...

  7. Maturation curves and degree-days accumulation for fruits of 'Folha Murcha' orange trees Curvas de maturação e graus-dia acumulados para frutos de plantas de laranjeira 'Folha Murcha'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neusa Maria Colauto Stenzel

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The effect of thermal summation on orange fruit growth on different rootstocks has not been studied for the State of Paraná, Brazil. This research evaluated the growth of fruits by means of maturation curves, and quantified the growing degree-days (GDD accumulation required for fruit maturation in 'Folha Murcha' orange trees budded on 'Rangpur' lime, 'Volkamer' lemon, 'Sunki' mandarin, and 'Cleopatra' mandarin, in Paranavaí and Londrina, PR. In both locations and all rootstocks, the fruits showed evolution in total soluble solids (TSS content in relation to GDD accumulation, with a quadratic tendency of curve fitting; total titratable acidity (TTA had an inverse quadratic fitting, and the (TSS/TTA ratio showed a positive linear regression. Fruits in Paranavaí presented a higher development rate towards maturity than those in Londrina, for all rootstocks. The advancing of the initial maturation stage of fruits in Paranavaí in relation to those in Londrina occurred in the following descending order: 'Volkamer' lemon (92 days, 'Cleopatra' mandarin (81 days, 'Sunki' mandarin (79 days, 'Rangpur' lime (77 days. In Londrina, trees on 'Rangpur' lime and 'Volkamer' lemon were ready for harvest 8 and 15 days before those on the 'Cleopatra' and 'Sunki' mandarins, respectively. In Paranavaí, the beginning of fruit maturation in trees on 'Volkamer' lemon occurred 15, 19, and 28 days earlier than on 'Rangpur' lime, 'Cleopatra' mandarin, and 'Sunki' mandarin, respectively. Considering 12.8ºC as the lower base temperature, the thermal sum for fruit growth and maturation of 'Folha Murcha' orange ranged from 4,462 to 5,090 GDD.O efeito da soma térmica no crescimento do fruto de laranja em diferentes porta-enxertos não tem sido estudado no Estado do Paraná, Brasil. Esta pesquisa avaliou o crescimento dos frutos por meio de curvas de maturação e quantificou os graus-dia acumulados (GDA necessários para a maturação dos frutos em laranjeiras 'Folha

  8. 360-degree video and X-ray modeling of the Galactic center's inner parsec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Christopher Michael Post; Wang, Daniel; Cuadra, Jorge

    2017-08-01

    360-degree videos, which render an image over all 4pi steradian, provide a unique and immersive way to visualize astrophysical simulations. Video sharing sites such as YouTube allow these videos to be shared with the masses; they can be viewed in their 360° nature on computer screens, with smartphones, or, best of all, in virtual-reality (VR) goggles. We present the first such 360° video of an astrophysical simulation: a hydrodynamics calculation of the Wolf-Rayet stars and their ejected winds in the inner parsec of the Galactic center. Viewed from the perspective of the super-massive black hole (SMBH), the most striking aspect of the video, which renders column density, is the inspiraling and stretching of clumps of WR-wind material as they makes their way towards the SMBH. We will brielfy describe how to make 360° videos and how to publish them online in their desired 360° format. Additionally we discuss computing the thermal X-ray emission from a suite of Galactic-center hydrodynamic simulations that have various SMBH feedback mechanisms, which are compared to Chandra X-ray Visionary Program observations of the region. Over a 2-5” ring centered on Sgr A*, the spectral shape is well matched, indicating that the WR winds are the dominant source of the thermal X-ray emission. Furthermore, the X-ray flux depends on the SMBH feedback due to the feedback's ability to clear out material from the central parsec. A moderate outburst is necessary to explain the current thermal X-ray flux, even though the outburst ended ˜100 yr ago.

  9. Classical model with pionic degrees of freedom for the description of high energetic heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunz, J.

    1982-01-01

    In this thesis the classical model is extended in order to regard the inelastic processes important in the heavy ion collisions of the considered energy range. For this a classical pion field was coupled to the nucleons via the pseudo-scalar #betta# 5 -interactions. Nucleon and pion fields were treated in a completely relativistic way. The equations of motion were analytically studied for the one-nucleon system. From the statical solution the bare mass of the nucleon was determined, and its dependence on both parameters of this modell, the coupling constant and the cut-off momentum of the form factor, was considered. (orig./HSI) [de

  10. Governance: Blending Bureaucratic Rules with Day to Day Operational Realities Comment on "Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinitz, David P

    2016-05-31

    Richard Saltman and Antonio Duran take up the challenging issue of governance in their article "Governance, Government and the Search for New Provider Models," and use two case studies of health policy changes in Sweden and Spain to shed light on the subject. In this commentary, I seek to link their conceptualization of governance, especially its interrelated roles at the macro, meso, and micro levels of health systems, with the case studies on which they report. While the case studies focus on the shifts in governance between the macro and meso levels and their impacts on achievement of desired policy outcomes, they also highlight the need to better integrate the dynamics of day to day operations within micro organizations into the overall governance picture. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  11. Simulation of the present-day climate with the climate model INMCM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volodin, E. M.; Mortikov, E. V.; Kostrykin, S. V.; Galin, V. Ya.; Lykossov, V. N.; Gritsun, A. S.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Iakovlev, N. G.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we present the fifth generation of the INMCM climate model that is being developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INMCM5). The most important changes with respect to the previous version (INMCM4) were made in the atmospheric component of the model. Its vertical resolution was increased to resolve the upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere. A more sophisticated parameterization of condensation and cloudiness formation was introduced as well. An aerosol module was incorporated into the model. The upgraded oceanic component has a modified dynamical core optimized for better implementation on parallel computers and has two times higher resolution in both horizontal directions. Analysis of the present-day climatology of the INMCM5 (based on the data of historical run for 1979-2005) shows moderate improvements in reproduction of basic circulation characteristics with respect to the previous version. Biases in the near-surface temperature and precipitation are slightly reduced compared with INMCM4 as well as biases in oceanic temperature, salinity and sea surface height. The most notable improvement over INMCM4 is the capability of the new model to reproduce the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biannual oscillation and statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings.

  12. Testing a model for the critical degree of saturation at freezing of porous building materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan De Place

    1996-01-01

    of elasticity, tensile strength, amount of freezable water, thermal expansion coefficients and parameters characterizing the pore structure and its effect on strength, modulus of elasticity and volumetric expansion. For the present, the model assumes non air-entrained homogeneous materials subjected to freeze-thaw...

  13. Development and Evaluation of a Dynamic, 3-Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) Wind Tunnel Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    position and the interference component engages the model by gripping between the fins identical to Fig. 12. Then the locking bar is pushed upward...eliminates any gimbal-induced flow disturbances. All 3 axes can be locked independently and are instrumented with high-resolution feedback. Experiments...6 Fig. 5 Gimbal assembly with axis locking mechanisms ..................................7 Fig. 6 Cross

  14. The cost of clinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation: An economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollin, E; Dhuyvetter, K C; Overton, M W

    2015-12-01

    Clinical mastitis results in considerable economic losses for dairy producers and is most commonly diagnosed in early lactation. The objective of this research was to estimate the economic impact of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation for a representative US dairy. A deterministic partial budget model was created to estimate direct and indirect costs per case of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation. Model inputs were selected from the available literature, or when none were available, from herd data. The average case of clinical mastitis resulted in a total economic cost of $444, including $128 in direct costs and $316 in indirect costs. Direct costs included diagnostics ($10), therapeutics ($36), non-saleable milk ($25), veterinary service ($4), labor ($21), and death loss ($32). Indirect costs included future milk production loss ($125), premature culling and replacement loss ($182), and future reproductive loss ($9). Accurate decision making regarding mastitis control relies on understanding the economic impacts of clinical mastitis, especially the longer term indirect costs that represent 71% of the total cost per case of mastitis. Future milk production loss represents 28% of total cost, and future culling and replacement loss represents 41% of the total cost of a case of clinical mastitis. In contrast to older estimates, these values represent the current dairy economic climate, including milk price ($0.461/kg), feed price ($0.279/kg DM (dry matter)), and replacement costs ($2,094/head), along with the latest published estimates on the production and culling effects of clinical mastitis. This economic model is designed to be customized for specific dairy producers and their herd characteristics to better aid them in developing mastitis control strategies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Science Majors and Degrees among Asian-American Students: Influences of Race and Sex in "model Minority" Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Yu; Hanson, Sandra L.

    Both race and sex continue to be factors that stratify entry into science education and occupations in the United States. Asian-Americans (men and women) have experienced considerable success in the sciences and have earned the label of "model minority." The complexities and patterns involved in this success remain elusive. We use several concepts coming out of the status attainment framework and a multicultural gender perspective to explore the way in which race and sex come together to influence choices of science major and degree. Our sample consists of Asian-American and white students in the National Educational Longitudinal Study. Findings suggest that being male and being Asian-American are both associated with higher chances of pursuing majors and degrees in science. The male advantage is greater than the Asian-American advantage. Findings also suggest that race and sex interact in the science decision. For example, race differences (with an Asian-American advantage) in choice of science major are significant for women but not men. Sex differences (with a male advantage) in choice of science major are significant in the white, but not the Asian-American sample. A different set of race and sex patterns is revealed in the science degree models. Processes associated with family socioeconomic status and student characteristics help to explain race and sex patterns. Findings suggest that when Asian-American youths have closer ties to the Asian culture, they are more likely to choose science majors and degrees. Implications for policy, practice, and research in science education are discussed.

  16. The 360-degree evaluation model: A method for assessing competency in graduate nursing students. A pilot research study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Carrie L; Jensen, Elizabeth; Durham, Catherine O; Smith, Gigi; Dumas, Bonnie

    2018-05-01

    The 360 Degree Evaluation Model is one means to provide a comprehensive view of clinical competency and readiness for progression in an online nursing program. This pilot project aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of implementing a 360 Degree Evaluation of clinical competency of graduate advanced practice nursing students. The 360 Degree Evaluation, adapted from corporate industry, encompasses assessment of student knowledge, skills, behaviors and attitudes and validates student's progression from novice to competent. Cohort of advanced practice nursing students in four progressive clinical semesters. Graduate advanced practice nursing students (N = 54). Descriptive statistics and Jonckheere's Trend Test were used to evaluate OSCE's scores from graded rubric, standardized patient survey scores, student reflection and preceptor evaluation. We identified all students passed the four OSCEs during a first attempt or second attempt. Scaffolding OSCE's over time allowed faculty to identify cohort weakness and create subsequent learning opportunities. Standardized patients' evaluation of the students' performance in the domains of knowledge, skills and attitudes, showed high scores of 96% in all OSCEs. Students' self-reflection comments were a mix of strengths and weaknesses in their self-evaluation, demonstrating themes as students progressed. Preceptor evaluation scores revealed the largest increase in knowledge and learning skills (NONPF domain 1), from an aggregate average of 90% in the first clinical course, to an average of 95%. The 360 Degree Evaluation Model provided a comprehensive evaluation of the student and critical information for the faculty ensuring individual student and cohort data and ability to analyze cohort themes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

  18. Physiological modeling for detecting degree of perception of a color-deficient person.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajalakshmi, T; Prince, Shanthi

    2017-04-01

    Physiological modeling of retina plays a vital role in the development of high-performance image processing methods to produce better visual perception. People with normal vision have an ability to discern different colors. The situation is different in the case of people with color blindness. The aim of this work is to develop a human visual system model for detecting the level of perception of people with red, green and blue deficiency by considering properties like luminance, spatial and temporal frequencies. Simulation results show that in the photoreceptor, outer plexiform and inner plexiform layers, the energy and intensity level of the red, green and blue component for a normal person is proved to be significantly higher than for dichromats. The proposed method explains with appropriate results that red and blue color blindness people could not perceive red and blue color completely.

  19. Classical model for nuclear collisions including the meson degree of freedom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babinet, R.; Kunz, J.; Mosel, U.; Wilets, L.

    1980-01-01

    Many different approaches have been taken to describe high energy heavy ion collisions. L. Wilets et al proposed a classical treatment of the problem. In his model non-relativistic nucleons move on classical trajectories. However, the Pauli-principle is simulated by a momentum dependent potential acting between the nucleons. This model is extended in two ways. The nucleons are coupled to a pionfield, which enables us to describe inelastic processes. Nucleons and pionfiled are treated completely relativistically, this also assures Lorentz invariance. We aim at a set of classical equations of motion describing the interacting system of nucleons and pionfield. These classical equations should have a quantum mechanical basis. Further, they should contain such fundamental properties of the pion-nucleon system as the Δ(3,3)-resonance, at least in a qualitative manner. (orig./FKS)

  20. Water models based on a single potential energy surface and different molecular degrees of freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint-Martin, Humberto; Hernández-Cobos, Jorge; Ortega-Blake, Iván

    2005-06-01

    Up to now it has not been possible to neatly assess whether a deficient performance of a model is due to poor parametrization of the force field or the lack of inclusion of enough molecular properties. This work compares several molecular models in the framework of the same force field, which was designed to include many-body nonadditive effects: (a) a polarizable and flexible molecule with constraints that account for the quantal nature of the vibration [B. Hess, H. Saint-Martin, and H. J. C. Berendsen, J. Chem. Phys. 116, 9602 (2002), H. Saint-Martin, B. Hess, and H. J. C. Berendsen, J. Chem. Phys. 120, 11133 (2004)], (b) a polarizable and classically flexible molecule [H. Saint-Martin, J. Hernández-Cobos, M. I. Bernal-Uruchurtu, I. Ortega-Blake, and H. J. C. Berendsen, J. Chem. Phys. 113, 10899 (2000)], (c) a polarizable and rigid molecule, and finally (d) a nonpolarizable and rigid molecule. The goal is to determine how significant the different molecular properties are. The results indicate that all factors—nonadditivity, polarizability, and intramolecular flexibility—are important. Still, approximations can be made in order to diminish the computational cost of the simulations with a small decrease in the accuracy of the predictions, provided that those approximations are counterbalanced by the proper inclusion of an effective molecular property, that is, an average molecular geometry or an average dipole. Hence instead of building an effective force field by parametrizing it in order to reproduce the properties of a specific phase, a building approach is proposed that is based on adequately restricting the molecular flexibility and/or polarizability of a model potential fitted to unimolecular properties, pair interactions, and many-body nonadditive contributions. In this manner, the same parental model can be used to simulate the same substance under a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. An additional advantage of this approach is that, as the force

  1. Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

    2017-12-01

    With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

  2. The challenge of modelling nitrogen management at the field scale: simulation and sensitivity analysis of N2O fluxes across nine experimental sites using DailyDayCent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitton, N; Datta, A; Hastings, A; Kuhnert, M; Smith, P; Topp, C F E; Cloy, J M; Rees, R M; Cardenas, L M; Williams, J R; Smith, K; Chadwick, D

    2014-01-01

    The United Kingdom currently reports nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture using the IPCC default Tier 1 methodology. However Tier 1 estimates have a large degree of uncertainty as they do not account for spatial variations in emissions. Therefore biogeochemical models such as DailyDayCent (DDC) are increasingly being used to provide a spatially disaggregated assessment of annual emissions. Prior to use, an assessment of the ability of the model to predict annual emissions should be undertaken, coupled with an analysis of how model inputs influence model outputs, and whether the modelled estimates are more robust that those derived from the Tier 1 methodology. The aims of the study were (a) to evaluate if the DailyDayCent model can accurately estimate annual N 2 O emissions across nine different experimental sites, (b) to examine its sensitivity to different soil and climate inputs across a number of experimental sites and (c) to examine the influence of uncertainty in the measured inputs on modelled N 2 O emissions. DailyDayCent performed well across the range of cropland and grassland sites, particularly for fertilized fields indicating that it is robust for UK conditions. The sensitivity of the model varied across the sites and also between fertilizer/manure treatments. Overall our results showed that there was a stronger correlation between the sensitivity of N 2 O emissions to changes in soil pH and clay content than the remaining input parameters used in this study. The lower the initial site values for soil pH and clay content, the more sensitive DDC was to changes from their initial value. When we compared modelled estimates with Tier 1 estimates for each site, we found that DailyDayCent provided a more accurate representation of the rate of annual emissions. (paper)

  3. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES THE DEGREE OF MEANINGFUL MODEL COMPLEXITY DEPEND ON OBSERVATION DATA?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunner, Philip; Doherty, John; Christensen, Steen

    reduction of predictive uncertainty. This gives raise to interesting questions concerning the level of complexity required. The capacity of a recharge model to reduce the uncertainty of future groundwater level predictions does not rely on accurate estimation of all hydraulic properties affecting......We systematically quantify to what extent vadose zone parameters can be constrained by including different types of observation data in the calibration process. Observation data considered are hydraulic heads, soil saturation, evaporation and transpiration. Besides assessing parameter uncertainty....... The results show that observations of the hydraulic head allow a significant reduction of predictive uncertainty. However, this it is not because any parameter is well estimated. Rather, this reduction is acquired knowledge that is applicable to combinations of parameters that contribute to a significant...

  4. Simulating the Pineapple Express in the half degree Community Climate System Model, CCSM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric rivers are recognized as major contributors to the poleward transport of water vapor. Upon reaching land, these phenomena also play a critical role in extreme precipitation and flooding events. The Pineapple Express (PE) is defined as an atmospheric river extending out of the deep tropics and reaching the west coast of North America. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) high-resolution ensemble simulations for the twentieth and 21st centuries are diagnosed to identify the PE. Analysis of the twentieth century simulations indicated that the CCSM4 accurately captures the spatial and temporal climatology of the PE. Analysis of the end 21st century simulations indicates a significant increase in storm duration and intensity of precipitation associated with landfall of the PE. Only a modest increase in the number of atmospheric rivers of a few percent is projected for the end of 21st century.

  5. Measurement of competitiveness degree in Tunisian deposit banks: An application of the Panzar and Rosse model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mensi Sami

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the use of the Panzar-Rosse statistic as a basis for empirical assessment of competitive conditions among Tunisian deposit banks. The elaborated model has been tested with an interest revenues equation and a total revenues equation. Proceeding by means of an Ordinary Least Square analysis, the H-statistics is respectively estimated at 0.87 and 0.91. The computations undertaken using bank fixed effects and bank random effects General Least Square methods yield similar results. With reference to the reviewed literature, we are inclined to believe that Tunisian banks implement neither a joint monopoly nor a collusive competition context, and that they evolve within an oligopolistic competition context in a contestable market. Thus, it confirms the presence of a competitive environment.

  6. Linear degrees of freedom in speech production: analysis of cineradio- and labio-film data and articulatory-acoustic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beautemps, D; Badin, P; Bailly, G

    2001-05-01

    The following contribution addresses several issues concerning speech degrees of freedom in French oral vowels, stop, and fricative consonants based on an analysis of tongue and lip shapes extracted from cineradio- and labio-films. The midsagittal tongue shapes have been submitted to a linear decomposition where some of the loading factors were selected such as jaw and larynx position while four other components were derived from principal component analysis (PCA). For the lips, in addition to the more traditional protrusion and opening components, a supplementary component was extracted to explain the upward movement of both the upper and lower lips in [v] production. A linear articulatory model was developed; the six tongue degrees of freedom were used as the articulatory control parameters of the midsagittal tongue contours and explained 96% of the tongue data variance. These control parameters were also used to specify the frontal lip width dimension derived from the labio-film front views. Finally, this model was complemented by a conversion model going from the midsagittal to the area function, based on a fitting of the midsagittal distances and the formant frequencies for both vowels and consonants.

  7. Empowering staff and clients: comparing preferences for management models by the professional degrees held by organization administrators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardina, Donna; Montana, Salvador

    2011-07-01

    In this article, findings from a national survey of social service managers are described. Respondents were asked to identify theories and models of management that influenced their administrative activities. The results indicate that many of the respondents used an empowerment-oriented approach to management. Respondents were more likely to engage in management activities that focused on empowering staffthan in activities intended to increase client involvement in the political process or organizational decision making. However, when the responses of participants with MSW degrees were compared with those of non-social workers, findings indicate that social workers are more likely to engage in workplace activities that facilitate the political empowerment of clients.

  8. Degree distribution in discrete case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Li-Na; Chen, Bin; Yan, Zai-Zai

    2011-01-01

    Vertex degree of many network models and real-life networks is limited to non-negative integer. By means of measure and integral, the relation of the degree distribution and the cumulative degree distribution in discrete case is analyzed. The degree distribution, obtained by the differential of its cumulative, is only suitable for continuous case or discrete case with constant degree change. When degree change is not a constant but proportional to degree itself, power-law degree distribution and its cumulative have the same exponent and the mean value is finite for power-law exponent greater than 1. -- Highlights: → Degree change is the crux for using the cumulative degree distribution method. → It suits for discrete case with constant degree change. → If degree change is proportional to degree, power-law degree distribution and its cumulative have the same exponent. → In addition, the mean value is finite for power-law exponent greater than 1.

  9. Living Day by Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Rachel L.; Khoury, Cynthia El; Field, Emily R. S.; Mokhbat, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    We examined the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in Lebanon. Ten women living with HIV/AIDS (WLWHA) described their experiences via semistructured in-depth interviews. They navigated a process of HIV diagnosis acceptance that incorporated six overlapping elements: receiving the news, accessing care, starting treatment, navigating disclosure decisions, negotiating stigma, and maintaining stability. Through these elements, we provide a framework for understanding three major themes that were constructed during data analysis: Stand by my side: Decisions of disclosure; Being “sick” and feeling “normal”: Interacting with self, others, and society; and Living day by day: focusing on the present. We contribute to the existing literature by providing a theoretical framework for understanding the process of diagnosis and sero-status acceptance among WLWHA. This was the first study of its kind to examine the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in a Middle Eastern country. PMID:28462340

  10. Living Day by Day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel L. Kaplan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We examined the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in Lebanon. Ten women living with HIV/AIDS (WLWHA described their experiences via semistructured in-depth interviews. They navigated a process of HIV diagnosis acceptance that incorporated six overlapping elements: receiving the news, accessing care, starting treatment, navigating disclosure decisions, negotiating stigma, and maintaining stability. Through these elements, we provide a framework for understanding three major themes that were constructed during data analysis: Stand by my side: Decisions of disclosure; Being “sick” and feeling “normal”: Interacting with self, others, and society; and Living day by day: focusing on the present. We contribute to the existing literature by providing a theoretical framework for understanding the process of diagnosis and sero-status acceptance among WLWHA. This was the first study of its kind to examine the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in a Middle Eastern country.

  11. An Influence of Gas Explosions on Dynamic Responses of a Single Degree of Freedom Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki-Yeob Kang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosion risk analysis (ERA is widely used to derive the dimensioning of accidental loads for design purposes. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulations contribute a key part of an ERA and predict possible blast consequences in a hazardous area. Explosion pressures can vary based on the model geometry, the explosion intensity, and explosion scenarios. Dynamic responses of structures under these explosion loads are dependent on a blast wave profile with respect to the magnitude of pressure, duration, and impulse in both positive and negative phases. Understanding the relationship between explosion load profiles and dynamic responses of the target area is important to mitigate the risk of explosion and perform structural design optimization. In the present study, the results of more than 3,000 CFD simulations were considered, and 1.6 million output files were analyzed using a visual basic for applications (VBA tool developed to characterize representative loading shapes. Dynamic response of a structure was investigated in both time and frequency domains using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT algorithm. In addition, the effects of the residual wave and loading velocity were studied in this paper.

  12. Modeling of wastewater quality in an urban area during festival and rainy days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obaid, H A; Shahid, S; Basim, K N; Chelliapan, S

    2015-01-01

    Water pollution during festival periods is a major problem in all festival cities across the world. Reliable prediction of water pollution is essential in festival cities for sewer and wastewater management in order to ensure public health and a clean environment. This article aims to model the biological oxygen demand (BOD(5)), and total suspended solids (TSS) parameters in wastewater in the sewer networks of Karbala city center during festival and rainy days using structural equation modeling and multiple linear regression analysis methods. For this purpose, 34 years (1980-2014) of rainfall, temperature and sewer flow data during festival periods in the study area were collected, processed, and employed. The results show that the TSS concentration increases by 26-46 mg/l while BOD(5) concentration rises by 9-19 mg/l for an increase of rainfall by 1 mm during festival periods. It was also found that BOD(5) concentration rises by 4-17 mg/l for each increase of 10,000 population.

  13. Present-Day Mars' Seismicity Predicted From 3-D Thermal Evolution Models of Interior Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plesa, A.-C.; Knapmeyer, M.; Golombek, M. P.; Breuer, D.; Grott, M.; Kawamura, T.; Lognonné, P.; Tosi, N.; Weber, R. C.

    2018-03-01

    The Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport mission, to be launched in 2018, will perform a comprehensive geophysical investigation of Mars in situ. The Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure package aims to detect global and regional seismic events and in turn offer constraints on core size, crustal thickness, and core, mantle, and crustal composition. In this study, we estimate the present-day amount and distribution of seismicity using 3-D numerical thermal evolution models of Mars, taking into account contributions from convective stresses as well as from stresses associated with cooling and planetary contraction. Defining the seismogenic lithosphere by an isotherm and assuming two end-member cases of 573 K and the 1073 K, we determine the seismogenic lithosphere thickness. Assuming a seismic efficiency between 0.025 and 1, this thickness is used to estimate the total annual seismic moment budget, and our models show values between 5.7 × 1016 and 3.9 × 1019 Nm.

  14. New prediction model for diagnosis of bacterial infection in febrile infants younger than 90 days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vujevic, Matea; Benzon, Benjamin; Markic, Josko

    2017-01-01

    Vujevic M, Benzon B, Markic J. New prediction model for diagnosis of bacterial infection in febrile infants younger than 90 days. Turk J Pediatr 2017; 59: 261-268. Due to non-specific clinical presentation in febrile infants, extensive laboratory testing is often carried out to distinguish simple viral disease from serious bacterial infection (SBI). Objective of this study was to compare efficacy of different biomarkers in early diagnosis of SBI in infants Pediatrics, University Hospital Centre Split with suspicion of having SBI were included in this study. Retrospective cohort analysis of data acquired from medical records was performed. Out of 181 enrolled patients, SBI was confirmed in 70. Most common diagnosis was urinary tract infection (68.6%), followed by pneumonia (12.9%), sepsis (11.4%), gastroenterocolitis (5.7%) and meningitis (1.4%). Male gender was shown to be a risk factor for SBI in this population (p=0.008). White blood cell count (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were confirmed as the independent predictors of SBI, with CRP as the best one. Two prediction models built by combining biomarkers and clinical variables were selected as optimal with sensitivities of 74.3% and 75.7%, and specificities of 88.3% and 86%. Evidently, CRP is a more superior biomarker in diagnostics of SBI comparing to WBC and ANC. Prediction models were shown to be better in predicting SBI than independent biomarkers. Although both showed high sensitivity and specificity, their true strength should be determined using validation cohort.

  15. Development of a nursing practice based competency model for the Flemish master of nursing and obstetrics degree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Clercq, Gerlinde; Goelen, Guido; Danschutter, Dirk; Vermeulen, Joeri; Huyghens, Luc

    2011-01-01

    The aim was to identify a set of competences for the Flemish academic Master of Nursing and Obstetrics degree that answer perceived needs in health care. The competency model was to demonstrate a degree of consensus among key nurses. The study was conducted in all Flemish hospitals registered to have 400 beds or more. Head nurses of surgery, geriatrics and intensive care units were eligible to participate, as well as one nurse from administration per hospital. A two round Delphi process allowed participants to comment on items identified in an analysis of existing international competency profiles of master level nurses and adapted to the Flemish context. Competences agreed to by 90% of the respondents were considered to have consensus. Fifteen out of 19 eligible hospitals were recruited in the study, 45 nurses participated in the Delphi panel. Consensus was reached on 31 competences that can be assigned to 5 nurse's roles: nursing expert, innovator, researcher, educator and manager. The resulting competency profile is in accordance with published profiles for similar programs. The reported study demonstrates a practical method to develop a consensus competency model for an academic master program based on the input of key individuals in mainstream nursing. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Day/night difference in extradural cortical stimulation for motor relearning in a subacute stroke rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Sun, Woong; Park, Eunhee; Lee, Jiyeong; Kim, Hyun; Shin, Yong-Il; Kim, Yun-Hee; Chang, Won Hyuk

    2016-02-24

    The aim of this study was to assess the proper timing of extradural cortical stimulation (ECS) on the motor relearning in a rat model of subacute photothrombotic stroke. Photothrombotic infarction was induced on the dominant sensorimotor cortex in male Sprague-Dawley rats after training in a single-pellet reaching task (SPRT). Rats were randomly divided into three groups after stroke: ECS during the inactive period (Day-ECS group), ECS during the active period (Night-ECS group) and no ECS (Non-stimulated group). Six sham-operated rats were assigned to the control group. The Day- and Night-ECS group received continuous ECS for 12 hours during the day or night for 2 weeks from day 4 after the stroke. Behavioral assessment with SPRT was performed daily. SPRT showed a significantly faster and greater improvement in the Day and Night-ECS groups than in the Non-stimulated group. In the Day- and Night-ECS groups, the success rate of SPRT differed significantly from Non-stimulated group on day 11 and day 8, respectively. In addition, the Night-ECS group showed a significantly higher SPRT success rate than the Day-ECS group from days 10 to 13. ECS during the active period might be more effective for motor relearning in the subacute stroke rat model.

  17. New bimaxillary orthognathic surgery planning and model surgery based on the concept of six degrees of freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jaeho; Kim, Yongdeok; Kim, Jongryoul; Kang, Heejea; Ji, Hyunjin

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to propose a new method of bimaxillary orthognathic surgery planning and model surgery based on the concept of 6 degrees of freedom (DOF). A 22-year-old man with Class III malocclusion was referred to our clinic with complaints of facial deformity and chewing difficulty. To correct a prognathic mandible, facial asymmetry, flat occlusal plane angle, labioversion of the maxillary central incisors, and concavity of the facial profile, bimaxillary orthognathic surgery was planned. After preoperative orthodontic treatment, surgical planning based on the concept of 6 DOF was performed on a surgical treatment objective drawing, and a Jeon's model surgery chart (JMSC) was prepared. Model surgery was performed with Jeon's orthognathic surgery simulator (JOSS) using the JMSC, and an interim wafer was fabricated. Le Fort I osteotomy, bilateral sagittal split ramus osteotomy, and malar augmentation were performed. The patient received lateral cephalometric and posteroanterior cephalometric analysis in postretention for 1 year. The follow-up results were determined to be satisfactory, and skeletal relapse did not occur after 1.5 years of surgery. When maxillary and mandibular models are considered as rigid bodies, and their state of motion is described in a quantitative manner based on 6 DOF, sharing of exact information on locational movement in 3-dimensional space is possible. The use of JMSC and JOSS will actualize accurate communication and performance of model surgery among clinicians based on objective measurements. PMID:23503161

  18. Operant conditioning of a multiple degree-of-freedom brain-machine interface in a primate model of amputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramanian, Karthikeyan; Southerland, Joshua; Vaidya, Mukta; Qian, Kai; Eleryan, Ahmed; Fagg, Andrew H; Sluzky, Marc; Oweiss, Karim; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas

    2013-01-01

    Operant conditioning with biofeedback has been shown to be an effective method to modify neural activity to generate goal-directed actions in a brain-machine interface. It is particularly useful when neural activity cannot be mathematically mapped to motor actions of the actual body such as in the case of amputation. Here, we implement an operant conditioning approach with visual feedback in which an amputated monkey is trained to control a multiple degree-of-freedom robot to perform a reach-to-grasp behavior. A key innovation is that each controlled dimension represents a behaviorally relevant synergy among a set of joint degrees-of-freedom. We present a number of behavioral metrics by which to assess improvements in BMI control with exposure to the system. The use of non-human primates with chronic amputation is arguably the most clinically-relevant model of human amputation that could have direct implications for developing a neural prosthesis to treat humans with missing upper limbs.

  19. Genetic analysis of somatic cell score in Danish dairy cattle using ramdom regression test-day model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsaid, Reda; Sabry, Ayman; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2011-01-01

    ,233 Danish Holstein cows, were extracted from the national milk recording database. Each data set was analyzed with random regression models using AI-REML. Fixed effects in all models were age at first calving, herd test day, days carrying calf, effects of germ plasm importation (e.g. additive breed effects......) and low between the beginning and the end of lactation. The estimated environmental correlations were lower than the genetic correlations, but the trends were similar. Based on test-day records, the accuracy of genetic evaluations for SCC should be improved when the variation in heritabilities...

  20. An assessment of the thermodynamic behaviour of neptunium in water and model groundwaters from 25 to 150 degrees C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemire, R.J.

    1984-03-01

    Standard molal Gibbs energy of formation and entropy data for simple neptunium solids and aqueous neptunium complexes with OH - , Cl - , F - , CO 3 2- , PO 4 3- , SO-4 2- and Na + have been critically reviewed. Selected values are used with estimated heat capacity values to derive self-consistent analytical expressions for the temperature dependence of the standard molal Gibbs energies of formation of the species from 25 to 150 degrees C. The Gibbs energies have been used to evaluate the effect of different concentrations of ligands on the solubility of neptunium solids as a function of temperature. Potential-pH diagrams are given for neptunium in pure water and in two model groundwaters. Important deficiencies in the available thermodynamic data for neptunium species are discussed

  1. Theory and simulations for hard-disk models of binary mixtures of molecules with internal degrees of freedom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fraser, Diane P.; Zuckermann, Martin J.; Mouritsen, Ole G.

    1991-01-01

    A two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method based on the NpT ensemble and the Voronoi tesselation, which was previously developed for single-species hard-disk systems, is extended, along with a version of scaled-particle theory, to many-component mixtures. These systems are unusual in the sense...... and internal degrees of freedom leads to a rich phase structure that includes solid-liquid transitions (governed by the translational variables) as well as transitions involving changes in average disk size (governed by the internal variables). The relationship between these two types of transitions is studied...... by the method in the case of a binary mixture, and results are presented for varying disk-size ratios and degeneracies. The results are also compared with the predictions of the extended scaled-particle theory. Applications of the model are discussed in relation to lipid monolayers spread on air...

  2. Oligodendrogenesis and neurogenesis in remyelination in the cuprizone model of multiple sclerosis: correlation with the degree of lesion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pishchelko, A.; Khodanovich, M.; Pan, E.; Glazacheva, V.; Akulov, A.; Yarnykh, V.

    2017-08-01

    In this research, a cuprizone model of multiple sclerosis (MS) was used to study oligodendrogenesis and neurogenesis in remyelination. It has been shown that, with the administration of cuprizone, the amount of myelin in a number of structures of white and gray matter and the level of neurogenesis decrease, while the level of oligodendrogenesis increases. The withdrawal of cuprizone leads to the restoration of myelin content, the reduction of the excessive production of oligodendrocytes and to the restoration of the number of neurons to control values. The negative correlation between the number of oligodendrocyte precursors (OPCs) and the degree of demyelination of the corpus callosum indicates migration of OLG precursors from the subventricular zone (SVZ) to the structure during demyelination.

  3. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

    2017-09-01

    Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

  4. GLGM-3: A Degree-ISO Lunar Gravity Model from the Historical Tracking Data of NASA Moon Orbiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazarico, E.; Lemoine, F. G.; Han, Shin-Chan; Smith, D. E.

    2010-01-01

    In preparation for the radio science experiment of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) mission, we analyzed the available radio tracking data of previous NASA lunar orbiters. Our goal was to use these historical observations in combination with the new low-altitude data to be obtained by LRO. We performed Precision Orbit Determination on trajectory arcs from Lunar Orbiter 1 in 1966 to Lunar Prospector in 1998, using the GEODYN II program developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. We then created a set of normal equations and solved for the coefficients of a spherical harmonics expansion of the lunar gravity potential up to degree and order 150. The GLGM-3 solution obtained with a global Kaula constraint (2.5 x 10(exp -4)/sq l) shows good agreement with model LP150Q from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, especially over the nearside. The levels of data fit with both gravity models are very similar (Doppler RMS of approx.0.2 and approx. 1-2 mm/s in the nominal and extended phases, respectiVely). Orbit overlaps and uncertainties estimated from the covariance matrix also agree well. GLGM-3 shows better correlation with lunar topography and admittance over the nearside at high degrees of expansion (l > 100), particularly near the poles. We also present three companion solutions, obtained with the same data set but using alternate inversion strategies that modify the power law constraint and expectation of the individual spherical harmonics coefficients. We give a detailed discussion of the performance of this family of gravity field solutions in terms of observation fit, orbit quality, and geophysical consistency.

  5. An exponential chemorheological model for viscosity dependence on degree-of-cure of a polyfurfuryl alcohol resin during the post-gel curing stage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominguez, J.C.; Oliet, M.; Alonso, María Virginia

    2016-01-01

    of modeling the evolution of the complex viscosity using a widely used chemorheological model such as the Arrhenius model for each tested temperature, the change of the complex viscosity as a function of the degree-of-cure was predicted using a new exponential type model. In this model, the logarithm...... of the normalized degree-of-cure is used to predict the behavior of the logarithm of the normalized complex viscosity. The model shows good quality of fitting with the experimental data for 4 and 6 wt % amounts of catalyst. For the 2 wt % amount of catalyst, scattered data leads to a slightly lower quality...

  6. Prediction of soil urea conversion and quantification of the importance degrees of influencing factors through a new combinatorial model based on cluster method and artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Tao; Guo, Xianghong; Sun, Xihuan; Ma, Juanjuan; Zhang, Shaowen; Zhang, Yong

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative prediction of soil urea conversion is crucial in determining the mechanism of nitrogen transformation and understanding the dynamics of soil nutrients. This study aimed to establish a combinatorial prediction model (MCA-F-ANN) for soil urea conversion and quantify the relative importance degrees (RIDs) of influencing factors with the MCA-F-ANN method. Data samples were obtained from laboratory culture experiments, and soil nitrogen content and physicochemical properties were measured every other day. Results showed that when MCA-F-ANN was used, the mean-absolute-percent error values of NH 4 + -N, NO 3 - -N, and NH 3 contents were 3.180%, 2.756%, and 3.656%, respectively. MCA-F-ANN predicted urea transformation under multi-factor coupling conditions more accurately than traditional models did. The RIDs of reaction time (RT), electrical conductivity (EC), temperature (T), pH, nitrogen application rate (F), and moisture content (W) were 32.2%-36.5%, 24.0%-28.9%, 12.8%-15.2%, 9.8%-12.5%, 7.8%-11.0%, and 3.5%-6.0%, respectively. The RIDs of the influencing factors in a descending order showed the pattern RT > EC > T > pH > F > W. RT and EC were the key factors in the urea conversion process. The prediction accuracy of urea transformation process was improved, and the RIDs of the influencing factors were quantified. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of

  8. A damage model of Zr {alpha} under cyclic loading at 200 degree Celsius; Modelisation de l`endommagement du Zr {alpha} sous chargement cyclique a 200 deg C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogel, C.; Drubay, B. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Dept. de Mecanique et de Technologie; Cailletaud, G. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 75 - Paris (France); Mottot, M. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Direction des Technologies Avancees

    1994-12-31

    A damage model for anticipating zirconium {alpha} test-piece rupture under cyclic solicitations at 200 degree Celsius is presented. The article is divided into three parts : an experimental approach, the damage model presentation and the application of this model. (O.L.). 10 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. An Innovative Marketing Model: Promoting Technical Programs by Conducting One-Day Conferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrosian, Anahid

    This document examines an innovative marketing strategy developed by South Texas Community College (STCC) to promote its technical programs. In 2000, STCC organized the "Business Conference Institute" to develop 1-day conferences with the Division of Business, Math & Sciences (DBMS). The creation of this Institute linked the College with the local…

  10. Chlorine dioxide and chlorhexidine mouthrinses compared in a 3-day plaque accumulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paraskevas, S.; Rosema, N.A.M.; Versteeg, P.; van der Velden, U.; van der Weijden, G.A.

    2008-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the inhibiting effect of a chlorine dioxide mouthrinse as opposed to a mouthrinse containing chlorhexidine (0.20%) during 3 days of plaque accumulation. Methods: At baseline, all participants (N = 77) received a professional prophylaxis and were

  11. A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad, Ashfaq; Javaid, Nadeem; Alrajeh, Nabil; Khan, Zahoor; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Abid

    2015-01-01

    In the operation of a smart grid (SG), day-ahead load forecasting (DLF) is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately ...

  12. The Relationship among Health Education Systems, Inc. Progression and Exit Examination Scores, Day or Evening Enrollment, Final Grade Point Average and NCLEX-RN® Success in Associate Degree Nursing Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnwell-Sanders, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Graduates of associate degree (AD) nursing programs form the largest segment of first-time National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN®) test takers, yet also experience the highest rate of NCLEX-RN® failures. NCLEX-RN® failure delays entry into the profession, adding an emotional and financial toll to the unsuccessful…

  13. Pulse wave analysis in a 180-degree curved artery model: Implications under physiological and non-physiological inflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulusu, Kartik V.; Plesniak, Michael W.

    2013-11-01

    Systolic and diastolic blood pressures, pulse pressures, and left ventricular hypertrophy contribute to cardiovascular risks. Increase of arterial stiffness due to aging and hypertension is an important factor in cardiovascular, chronic kidney and end-stage-renal-diseases. Pulse wave analysis (PWA) based on arterial pressure wave characteristics, is well established in clinical practice for evaluation of arterial distensibility and hypertension. The objective of our exploratory study in a rigid 180-degree curved artery model was to evaluate arterial pressure waveforms. Bend upstream conditions were measured using a two-component, two-dimensional, particle image velocimeter (2C-2D PIV). An ultrasonic transit-time flow meter and a catheter with a MEMS-based solid state pressure sensor, capable of measuring up to 20 harmonics of the observed pressure waveform, monitored flow conditions downstream of the bend. Our novel continuous wavelet transform algorithm (PIVlet 1.2), in addition to detecting coherent secondary flow structures is used to evaluate arterial pulse wave characteristics subjected to physiological and non-physiological inflows. Results of this study will elucidate the utility of wavelet transforms in arterial function evaluation and pulse wave speed. Supported by NSF Grant No. CBET- 0828903 and GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering.

  14. Estimation of Dusty Days Using the Model of Time Series: A Case Study of Hormozgan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Farahi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dust storm is one of the climatic hazards in the arid and semi-arid regions. Southern Iran with its hot and dry climate is more likely affected by the adverse consequences of dust storms due to the proximity to the dusty deserts of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, on one hand, and the synoptic situation for the occurrence of the dust storms in the Persian Gulf, on the other hand. In this study, the frequency of dusty days in Hormozgan Province was investigated and predicted. To this end, data were collected from the three synoptic stations in Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh and Bandar-e Jask from the Iran Meteorological Organization during the statistical period of 1968-2008. Then, using the non-seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q, were analyzed in 16Minitab and the frequency of the dusty days in the region were predicted. Results of the study show that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1noc was the most appropriate pattern for predicting the frequency of dusty days in Hormozgan Province. The results showed that the predictions for Bandar-e Jask, compared to those of Bandar Abbas and Bandar Lengeh are more accurate in terms of continuous increasing trend and the interval stability of the time series prediction and the smaller difference between the observed values with the predicted values.

  15. Random-lattice models and simulation algorithms for the phase equilibria in two-dimensional condensed systems of particles with coupled internal and translational degrees of freedom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Miao, Ling; Ipsen, John Hjorth

    1996-01-01

    In this work we concentrate on phase equilibria in two-dimensional condensed systems of particles where both translational and internal degrees of freedom are present and coupled through microscopic interactions, with a focus on the manner of the macroscopic coupling between the two types...... where the spin degrees of freedom are slaved by the translational degrees of freedom and develop a first-order singularity in the order-disorder transition that accompanies the lattice-melting transition. The internal degeneracy of the spin states in model III implies that the spin order...

  16. Phenology and thermal summation (degree days for ‘Isabel’ grape (Vitis labrusca produced in the Northwest of Parana State/ Fenologia e soma térmica (graus-dia para a videira ‘Isabel’ (Vitis labrusca cultivada no Noroeste do Paraná

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werner Genta

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available The objetive of this research was to characterize the phenological performance of ‘Isabel’ grape (Vitis labrusca produced in the northwest of Parana state, as well to characterize its thermal demand in degree-days. The experimental area was established in a commercial vineyard of Vinícola Intervin®, Maringá, PR. The vineyard was planted in August of 2000 and the trees were trained in a pergola system, in a 4.0 x 1.0 m spacing. The evaluations started from the winter pruning of 2003. The random design was used as the statistical model with 20 replications and each plot was composed by one tree. The phenology of grapes was evaluated considering the duration in days of each one of the following subperiods: pruning to bud swell, pruning to beggining of shoot growth, pruning to visible cluster, pruning to flowering, pruning to early ripening and pruning to harvest. The thermal demand of ‘Isabel’ grape was determined using the degree-days summation from the pruning to harvest, as well for each of the subperiods, considering two base-temperatures (10oC and 12oC. It was possible to conclude that: the duration of the ‘Isabel’ grape (pruning to harvest in the northwest of Parana is 127 days, and its thermal demand is 1,238.20 degree-days. The most suitable base-temperature to calculate this demand was 10oC.O trabalho teve como objetivo caracterizar o comportamento fenológico da videira ‘Isabel’ (Vitis labrusca cultivada no norte do Estado do Paraná, bem como caracterizar sua exigência térmica em graus-dia. A área experimental foi instalada em uma propriedade comercial pertencente à Vinícola Intervin®, localizada no município de Maringá, PR. O vinhedo foi estabelecido em agosto de 2000 e as plantas foram conduzidas no sistema latada no espaçamento de 4,0 m x 1,0 m. As avaliações tiveram início a partir da poda de frutificação realizada no fim do inverno de 2003. O delineamento experimental foi o inteiramente casualizado

  17. An Analysis of Collaborative Problem-Solving Mechanisms in Sponsored Projects: Applying the 5-Day Sprint Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raubenolt, Amy

    2016-01-01

    In May 2016, the office of Finance and Sponsored Projects at The Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital conducted a 5-day design sprint session to re-evaluate and redesign a flawed final reporting process within the department. The department sprint was modeled after the design sprint sessions that occur routinely in software…

  18. Kindergartners' Mental Models of the Day and Night Cycle: Implications for Instructional Practices in Early Childhood Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saçkes, Mesut

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to examine kindergarten children's mental models of the day and night cycle and provide implications for pedagogical practices targeting space science concepts in early childhood classrooms. A total of 46 kindergartners participated in the study, their age ranging from 60 to 75 months, including 22 boys and 24 girls.…

  19. Rosalie Wolf Memorial Lecture: A logic model to measure the impacts of World Elder Abuse Awareness Day.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Karen

    2016-01-01

    This commentary discusses the need to evaluate the impact of World Elder Abuse Awareness Day activities, the elder abuse field's most sustained public awareness initiative. A logic model is proposed with measures for short-term, medium-term, and long-term outcomes for community-based programs.

  20. Inferring genetic parameters of lactation in Tropical Milking Criollo cattle with random regression test-day models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santellano-Estrada, E; Becerril-Pérez, C M; de Alba, J; Chang, Y M; Gianola, D; Torres-Hernández, G; Ramírez-Valverde, R

    2008-11-01

    This study inferred genetic and permanent environmental variation of milk yield in Tropical Milking Criollo cattle and compared 5 random regression test-day models using Wilmink's function and Legendre polynomials. Data consisted of 15,377 test-day records from 467 Tropical Milking Criollo cows that calved between 1974 and 2006 in the tropical lowlands of the Gulf Coast of Mexico and in southern Nicaragua. Estimated heritabilities of test-day milk yields ranged from 0.18 to 0.45, and repeatabilities ranged from 0.35 to 0.68 for the period spanning from 6 to 400 d in milk. Genetic correlation between days in milk 10 and 400 was around 0.50 but greater than 0.90 for most pairs of test days. The model that used first-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic effects and second-order Legendre polynomials for permanent environmental effects gave the smallest residual variance and was also favored by the Akaike information criterion and likelihood ratio tests.

  1. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Zhongfu; Zhang, Jinliang; Xu, Jun; Wang, Jianhui

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel price forecasting method based on wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models. By wavelet transform, the historical price series is decomposed and reconstructed into one approximation series and some detail series. Then each subseries can be separately predicted by a suitable time series model. The final forecast is obtained by composing the forecasted results of each subseries. This proposed method is examined on Spanish and PJM electricity markets and compared with some other forecasting methods. (author)

  2. Modeling soluble salt assemblages on Mars: past aqueous history and present-day habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toner, J. D.; Catling, D. C.; Light, B.

    2014-12-01

    Soluble salt assemblages formed through aqueous processes are widespread on Mars. These minerals are important for understanding the past aqueous history of Mars and indicate critical habitability parameters such as pH, temperature, water activity, and salinity. Equilibrium models have been used to determine solution chemistry and salt precipitation sequences from aqueous chemical data; however, current models are limited by a lack of experimental data for low-temperature perchlorates, and some model predictions are clearly anomalous. To address the need for accurate equilibrium models, we have developed a comprehensive model for low-temperature perchlorate-rich brines using (1) previously neglected literature data, (2) experimental solubilities determined in low-temperature perchlorate solutions, and (3) solubility and heat capacity results determined using Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Our resulting model is a significant improvement over existing models, such as FREZCHEM, particularly for perchlorate mixtures. We have applied our model to evaporation and freezing of a nominal Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) solution measured at the Phoenix site. For a freezing WCL solution, our model indicates that ice, KClO4, hydromagnesite (3MgCO3·Mg(OH)2·3H2O), calcite (CaCO3), meridianiite (MgSO4·11H2O), MgCl2·12H2O, NaClO4·2H2O, and Mg(ClO4)2·6H2O form at the eutectic (209 K); whereas, KClO4, hydromagnesite, kieserite (MgSO4·H2O), anhydrite (CaSO4), halite (NaCl), NaClO4·H2O, and Mg(ClO4)2·6H2O form upon complete evaporation at 298 K. In general, evaporation yields more dehydrated mineral assemblages than salts produced by freezing. Hydrated phases that form during evaporation contain 0.3 wt. % water, which compares with 1.2 wt. % during freezing. Given independent evidence for the presence of calcite and minimum water contents in Martian soils of ~1.5 wt. %, salts at the Phoenix site, and possibly elsewhere, appear more likely to have formed during

  3. The effect of hydroxyapatite presence on the degree of conversion and polymerization rate in a model self-etching adhesive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Wang, Yong

    2011-01-01

    Objective The effect of hydroxyapatite (HAp) content on photopolymerization of a model self-etching adhesive was studied by using attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR/FT-IR) spectroscopy. Materials and methods The model adhesive contained two monomers: bis[2-(methacryloyloxy)ethyl] phosphate (2MP) and 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) using a 1:1 mass ratio, representing an acidic formulation. Camphorquinone and ethyl 4-dimethylaminobenzoate were added to enable visible light photopolymerization in a constant concentration of 0.022 mmol per gram monomer. HAp [Ca10(OH)2(PO4)6] powder were added to the test solutions to obtain mass fraction of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 wt%. The degree of conversion (DC) and the polymerization rate (PR) with/without HAp were determined using ATR/FT-IR with a time-based spectrum analysis. Results Monomer DC and PR were significantly enhanced by addition of HAp. Incorporation of 4 wt% of HAp increased DC from 20.8 (±0.3) % to 93.4 (±1.1) %, and PR from 0.42 (±0.01) %/s to 3.21 (±0.07) %/s. The pH of adhesive solutions was measured and correlated with DC and PR. The pH of test solutions was also controlled using a base (sodium hydroxide, NaOH) to similar values as when using HAp. Results indicated that both the DC and PR increased with increasing pH, regardless of additive, confirming the role of pH on polymerization. From the IR spectral comparison, changes in molecular structures of the self-etching adhesive after the addition of HAp were observed, which were correlated with the specific interaction between 2MP and HAp. The effect of viscosity was also proposed to be another possible reason for the improved polymerization. Significance The photopolymerization of a self-etching adhesive was enhanced / accelerated in the presence of HAp. The results provide the critical information for understanding the interactions/bonding between self-etching adhesives and tooth substrates. PMID:22032933

  4. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2018-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  5. Application of a Gradient Descent Continuous Actor-Critic Algorithm for Double-Side Day-Ahead Electricity Market Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available An important goal of China’s electric power system reform is to create a double-side day-ahead wholesale electricity market in the future, where the suppliers (represented by GenCOs and demanders (represented by DisCOs compete simultaneously with each other in one market. Therefore, modeling and simulating the dynamic bidding process and the equilibrium in the double-side day-ahead electricity market scientifically is not only important to some developed countries, but also to China to provide a bidding decision-making tool to help GenCOs and DisCOs obtain more profits in market competition. Meanwhile, it can also provide an economic analysis tool to help government officials design the proper market mechanisms and policies. The traditional dynamic game model and table-based reinforcement learning algorithm have already been employed in the day-ahead electricity market modeling. However, those models are based on some assumptions, such as taking the probability distribution function of market clearing price (MCP and each rival’s bidding strategy as common knowledge (in dynamic game market models, and assuming the discrete state and action sets of every agent (in table-based reinforcement learning market models, which are no longer applicable in a realistic situation. In this paper, a modified reinforcement learning method, called gradient descent continuous Actor-Critic (GDCAC algorithm was employed in the double-side day-ahead electricity market modeling and simulation. This algorithm can not only get rid of the abovementioned unrealistic assumptions, but also cope with the Markov decision-making process with continuous state and action sets just like the real electricity market. Meanwhile, the time complexity of our proposed model is only O(n. The simulation result of employing the proposed model in the double-side day-ahead electricity market shows the superiority of our approach in terms of participant’s profit or social welfare

  6. Predicting 30-day Hospital Readmission with Publicly Available Administrative Database. A Conditional Logistic Regression Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, K; Lou, Z; Zhou, J; Ballester, N; Kong, N; Parikh, P

    2015-01-01

    This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Hospital readmissions raise healthcare costs and cause significant distress to providers and patients. It is, therefore, of great interest to healthcare organizations to predict what patients are at risk to be readmitted to their hospitals. However, current logistic regression based risk prediction models have limited prediction power when applied to hospital administrative data. Meanwhile, although decision trees and random forests have been applied, they tend to be too complex to understand among the hospital practitioners. Explore the use of conditional logistic regression to increase the prediction accuracy. We analyzed an HCUP statewide inpatient discharge record dataset, which includes patient demographics, clinical and care utilization data from California. We extracted records of heart failure Medicare beneficiaries who had inpatient experience during an 11-month period. We corrected the data imbalance issue with under-sampling. In our study, we first applied standard logistic regression and decision tree to obtain influential variables and derive practically meaning decision rules. We then stratified the original data set accordingly and applied logistic regression on each data stratum. We further explored the effect of interacting variables in the logistic regression modeling. We conducted cross validation to assess the overall prediction performance of conditional logistic regression (CLR) and compared it with standard classification models. The developed CLR models outperformed several standard classification models (e.g., straightforward logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine). For example, the best CLR model improved the classification accuracy by nearly 20% over the straightforward logistic regression model. Furthermore, the developed CLR models tend to achieve better sensitivity of

  7. Modeling real shim fields for very high degree (and order) B0 shimming of the human brain at 9.4 T.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Paul; Nassirpour, Sahar; Henning, Anke

    2018-01-01

    To describe the process of calibrating a B 0 shim system using high-degree (or high order) spherical harmonic models of the measured shim fields, to provide a method that considers amplitude dependency of these models, and to show the advantage of very high-degree B 0 shimming for whole-brain and single-slice applications at 9.4 Tesla (T). An insert shim with up to fourth and partial fifth/sixth degree (order) spherical harmonics was used with a Siemens 9.4T scanner. Each shim field was measured and modeled as input for the shimming algorithm. Optimal shim currents can therefore be calculated in a single iteration. A range of shim currents was used in the modeling to account for possible amplitude nonlinearities. The modeled shim fields were used to compare different degrees of whole-brain B 0 shimming on healthy subjects. The ideal shim fields did not correctly shim the subject brains. However, using the modeled shim fields improved the B 0 homogeneity from 55.1 (second degree) to 44.68 Hz (partial fifth/sixth degree) on the whole brains of 9 healthy volunteers, with a total applied current of 0.77 and 6.8 A, respectively. The necessity of calibrating the shim system was shown. Better B 0 homogeneity drastically reduces signal dropout and distortions for echo-planar imaging, and significantly improves the linewidths of MR spectroscopy imaging. Magn Reson Med 79:529-540, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  8. Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict Heat-Related Electric grid stress days

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the conditions associated with stress on the electricity grid is important in the development of contingency plans for maintaining reliability during periods when the grid is stressed. In this paper, heat-related grid stress and the relationship with weather conditions is examined using data from the eastern United States. Penalized logistic regression models were developed and applied to predict stress on the electric grid using weather data. The inclusion of other weather variables, such as precipitation, in addition to temperature improved model performance. Several candidate models and datasets were examined. A penalized logistic regression model fit at the operation-zone level was found to provide predictive value and interpretability. Additionally, the importance of different weather variables observed at different time scales were examined. Maximum temperature and precipitation were identified as important across all zones while the importance of other weather variables was zone specific. The methods presented in this work are extensible to other regions and can be used to aid in planning and development of the electrical grid.

  9. Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

  10. Measuring Discrimination- and Reversal Learning in Mouse Models within 4 Days and without Prior Food Deprivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remmelink, Esther; Smit, August B.; Verhage, Matthijs; Loos, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Many neurological and psychiatric disorders are characterized by deficits in cognitive flexibility. Modeling cognitive flexibility in mice enables the investigation of mechanisms underlying these deficits. The majority of currently available behavioral tests targeting this cognitive domain are reversal learning tasks that require scheduled food…

  11. A day in the life of fish larvae: modeling foraging and growth using quirks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus B Huebert

    Full Text Available This article introduces "Quirks," a generic, individual-based model synthesizing over 40 years of empirical and theoretical insights into the foraging behavior and growth physiology of marine fish larvae. In Quirks, different types of larvae are defined by a short list of their biological traits, and all foraging and growth processes (including the effects of key environmental factors are modeled following one unified set of mechanistic rules. This approach facilitates ecologically meaningful comparisons between different species and environments. We applied Quirks to model young exogenously feeding larvae of four species: 5.5-mm European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, 7-mm Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, 13-mm Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus, and 7-mm European sprat (Sprattus sprattus. Modeled growth estimates explained the majority of variability among 53 published empirical growth estimates, and displayed very little bias: 0.65% ± 1.2% d(-1 (mean ± standard error. Prey organisms of ∼ 67% the maximum ingestible prey length were optimal for all larval types, in terms of the expected ingestion per encounter. Nevertheless, the foraging rate integrated over all favorable prey sizes was highest when smaller organisms made up >95% of the prey biomass under the assumption of constant normalized size spectrum slopes. The overall effect of turbulence was consistently negative, because its detrimental influence on prey pursuit success exceeded its beneficial influence on prey encounter rate. Model sensitivity to endogenous traits and exogenous environmental factors was measured and is discussed in depth. Quirks is free software and open source code is provided.

  12. Genetic Analysis of Milk Yield Using Random Regression Test Day Model in Tehran Province Holstein Dairy Cow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Seyeddokht

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this research a random regression test day model was used to estimate heritability values and calculation genetic correlations between test day milk records. a total of 140357 monthly test day milk records belonging to 28292 first lactation Holstein cattle(trice time a day milking distributed in 165 herd and calved from 2001 to 2010 belonging to the herds of Tehran province were used. The fixed effects of herd-year-month of calving as contemporary group and age at calving and Holstein gene percentage as covariate were fitted. Orthogonal legendre polynomial with a 4th-order was implemented to take account of genetic and environmental aspects of milk production over the course of lactation. RRM using Legendre polynomials as base functions appears to be the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. The results showed that the average of heritability for the second half of lactation period was higher than that of the first half. The heritability value for the first month was lowest (0.117 and for the eighth month of the lactation was highest (0.230 compared to the other months of lactation. Because of genetic variation was increased gradually, and residual variance was high in the first months of lactation, heritabilities were different over the course of lactation. The RRMs with a higher number of parameters were more useful to describe the genetic variation of test-day milk yield throughout the lactation. In this research estimation of genetic parameters, and calculation genetic correlations were implemented by random regression test day model, therefore using this method is the exact way to take account of parameters rather than the other ways.

  13. The chlorine budget of the present-day atmosphere - A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, Nien-Dak

    1992-01-01

    The contribution of source gases to the total amount of inorganic chlorine (ClY) is examined analytically with a time-dependent model employing 11 source gases. The source-gas emission data are described, and the modeling methodology is set forth with attention given to the data interpretation. The abundances and distributions are obtained for all 11 source gases with corresponding ClY production rates and mixing ratios. It is shown that the ClY production rate and the ClY mixing ratio for each source gas are spatially dependent, and the change in the relative contributions from 1950 to 1990 is given. Ozone changes in the past decade are characterized by losses in the polar and midlatitude lower stratosphere. The values for CFC-11, CCl4, and CH3CCl3 suggest that they are more evident in the lower stratosphere than is suggested by steady-state estimates based on surface concentrations.

  14. A model study of present-day Hall-effect circulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placke, B. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Bosco, S. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); DiVincenzo, D.P. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); Peter Gruenberg Institute, Theoretical Nanoelectronics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, Juelich (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    Stimulated by the recent implementation of a three-port Hall-effect microwave circulator of Mahoney et al. (MEA), we present model studies of the performance of this device. Our calculations are based on the capacitive-coupling model of Viola and DiVincenzo (VD). Based on conductance data from a typical Hall-bar device obtained from a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) in a magnetic field, we numerically solve the coupled field-circuit equations to calculate the expected performance of the circulator, as determined by the S parameters of the device when coupled to 50Ω ports, as a function of frequency and magnetic field. Above magnetic fields of 1.5 T, for which a typical 2DEG enters the quantum Hall regime (corresponding to a Landau-level filling fraction ν of 20), the Hall angle θ{sub H} = tan{sup -1} σ{sub xy}/σ{sub xx} always remains close to 90 , and the S parameters are close to the analytic predictions of VD for θ{sub H} = π/2. As anticipated by VD, MEA find the device to have rather high (kΩ) impedance, and thus to be extremely mismatched to 50Ω, requiring the use of impedance matching. We incorporate the lumped matching circuits of MEA in our modeling and confirm that they can produce excellent circulation, although confined to a very small bandwidth. We predict that this bandwidth is significantly improved by working at lower magnetic field when the Landau index is high, e.g. ν = 20, and the impedance mismatch is correspondingly less extreme. Our modeling also confirms the observation of MEA that parasitic port-to-port capacitance can produce very interesting countercirculation effects. (orig.)

  15. A model study of present-day Hall-effect circulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Placke, B.; Bosco, S.; DiVincenzo, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    Stimulated by the recent implementation of a three-port Hall-effect microwave circulator of Mahoney et al. (MEA), we present model studies of the performance of this device. Our calculations are based on the capacitive-coupling model of Viola and DiVincenzo (VD). Based on conductance data from a typical Hall-bar device obtained from a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) in a magnetic field, we numerically solve the coupled field-circuit equations to calculate the expected performance of the circulator, as determined by the S parameters of the device when coupled to 50Ω ports, as a function of frequency and magnetic field. Above magnetic fields of 1.5 T, for which a typical 2DEG enters the quantum Hall regime (corresponding to a Landau-level filling fraction ν of 20), the Hall angle θ_H = tan"-"1 σ_x_y/σ_x_x always remains close to 90 , and the S parameters are close to the analytic predictions of VD for θ_H = π/2. As anticipated by VD, MEA find the device to have rather high (kΩ) impedance, and thus to be extremely mismatched to 50Ω, requiring the use of impedance matching. We incorporate the lumped matching circuits of MEA in our modeling and confirm that they can produce excellent circulation, although confined to a very small bandwidth. We predict that this bandwidth is significantly improved by working at lower magnetic field when the Landau index is high, e.g. ν = 20, and the impedance mismatch is correspondingly less extreme. Our modeling also confirms the observation of MEA that parasitic port-to-port capacitance can produce very interesting countercirculation effects. (orig.)

  16. Utilization of ICU Data to Improve 30 and 60 Day Mortality Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-06

    complicated geriatric syndromes or complications related to chronic diseases. The sample size of the Akilli et al., 2014 study is also relatively small. The...total- and partial-body irradiation in a baboon model: preliminary results of a kinetic study including clinical, physical , and biological parameters...pp. 177–182. Kiang, JG et al. (2014). “Ghrelin therapy improves survival after whole-body ionizing ir- radiation or combined with burn or wound

  17. Genetic analysis of days from calving to first insemination and days open in Danish Holsteins using different models and censoring scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Y; Madsen, P; Labouriau, R

    2009-01-01

    that dealt with censored records in different ways: 1) a conventional linear model (LM) in which a penalty of 21 d was added to censored records; 2) a bivariate threshold-linear model (TLM), which included a threshold model for censoring status (0, 1) of the observations, and a linear model for ICF or DO...... without any penalty on censored records; 3) a right-censored linear model (CLM); 4) a Weibull proportional hazard model (SMW); and 5) a Cox proportional hazard model (SMC) constructed with piecewise constant baseline hazard function. The variance components for ICF and DO estimated from LM and TLM were...... similar, whereas CLM gave higher estimates of both additive genetic and residual components. Estimates of heritability from models LM, TLM, and CLM were very similar (0.102 to 0.108 for ICF, and 0.066 to 0.069 for DO). Heritabilities estimated using model SMW were 0.213 for ICF and 0.121 for DO...

  18. A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashfaq Ahmad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the operation of a smart grid (SG, day-ahead load forecasting (DLF is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately predict the load of the next day with a fair enough execution time. Our proposed model consists of three modules; the data preparation module, feature selection and the forecast module. The first module makes the historical load curve compatible with the feature selection module. The second module removes redundant and irrelevant features from the input data. The third module, which consists of an artificial neural network (ANN, predicts future load on the basis of selected features. Moreover, the forecast module uses a sigmoid function for activation and a multi-variate auto-regressive model for weight updating during the training process. Simulations are conducted in MATLAB to validate the performance of our newly-proposed DLF model in terms of accuracy and execution time. Results show that our proposed modified feature selection and modified ANN (m(FS + ANN-based model for SGs is able to capture the non-linearity(ies in the history load curve with 97 . 11 % accuracy. Moreover, this accuracy is achieved at the cost of a fair enough execution time, i.e., we have decreased the average execution time of the existing FS + ANN-based model by 38 . 50 % .

  19. Predicting 30-Day Readmissions in an Asian Population: Building a Predictive Model by Incorporating Markers of Hospitalization Severity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lian Leng Low

    Full Text Available To reduce readmissions, it may be cost-effective to consider risk stratification, with targeting intervention programs to patients at high risk of readmissions. In this study, we aimed to derive and validate a prediction model including several novel markers of hospitalization severity, and compare the model with the LACE index (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, Emergency department visits in past 6 months, an established risk stratification tool.This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients ≥ 21 years of age, who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore from January 1, 2013 through May 31, 2015. Data were extracted from the hospital's electronic health records. The outcome was defined as unplanned readmissions within 30 days of discharge from the index hospitalization. Candidate predictive variables were broadly grouped into five categories: Patient demographics, social determinants of health, past healthcare utilization, medical comorbidities, and markers of hospitalization severity. Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict the outcome, and receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to compare our model with the LACE index.74,102 cases were enrolled for analysis. Of these, 11,492 patient cases (15.5% were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. A total of fifteen predictive variables were strongly associated with the risk of 30-day readmissions, including number of emergency department visits in the past 6 months, Charlson Comorbidity Index, markers of hospitalization severity such as 'requiring inpatient dialysis during index admission, and 'treatment with intravenous furosemide 40 milligrams or more' during index admission. Our predictive model outperformed the LACE index by achieving larger area under the curve values: 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.79 versus 0.70 (95% CI: 0.69-0.71.Several factors are important for the risk of 30-day readmissions

  20. Development of a diagnosis- and procedure-based risk model for 30-day outcome after pediatric cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Brown, Kate L; Pagel, Christina; Muthialu, Nagarajan; Cunningham, David; Gibbs, John; Bull, Catherine; Franklin, Rodney; Utley, Martin; Tsang, Victor T

    2013-05-01

    The study objective was to develop a risk model incorporating diagnostic information to adjust for case-mix severity during routine monitoring of outcomes for pediatric cardiac surgery. Data from the Central Cardiac Audit Database for all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures performed in the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2010 were included: 70% for model development and 30% for validation. Units of analysis were 30-day episodes after the first surgical procedure. We used logistic regression for 30-day mortality. Risk factors considered included procedural information based on Central Cardiac Audit Database "specific procedures," diagnostic information defined by 24 "primary" cardiac diagnoses and "univentricular" status, and other patient characteristics. Of the 27,140 30-day episodes in the development set, 25,613 were survivals, 834 were deaths, and 693 were of unknown status (mortality, 3.2%). The risk model includes procedure, cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age band (neonate, infant, child), continuous age, continuous weight, presence of non-Down syndrome comorbidity, bypass, and year of operation 2007 or later (because of decreasing mortality). A risk score was calculated for 95% of cases in the validation set (weight missing in 5%). The model discriminated well; the C-index for validation set was 0.77 (0.81 for post-2007 data). Removal of all but procedural information gave a reduced C-index of 0.72. The model performed well across the spectrum of predicted risk, but there was evidence of underestimation of mortality risk in neonates undergoing operation from 2007. The risk model performs well. Diagnostic information added useful discriminatory power. A future application is risk adjustment during routine monitoring of outcomes in the United Kingdom to assist quality assurance. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Jupiter Night and Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    Day and night side narrow angle images taken on January 1, 2001 illustrating storms visible on the day side which are the sources of visible lightning when viewed on the night side. The images have been enhanced in contrast. Note the two day-side occurrences of high clouds, in the upper and lower parts of the image, are coincident with lightning storms seen on the darkside. The storms occur at 34.5 degrees and 23.5 degrees North latitude, within one degree of the latitudes at which similar lightning features were detected by the Galileo spacecraft. The images were taken at different times. The storms' longitudinal separation changes from one image to the next because the winds carrying them blow at different speeds at the two latitudes.

  2. Systems with Many Degrees of Freedom: from Mean - Theories of Non-Fermi Liquid Behavior in Impurity Models to Implied Binomial Trees for Modeling Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barle, Stanko

    In this dissertation, two dynamical systems with many degrees of freedom are analyzed. One is the system of highly correlated electrons in the two-impurity Kondo problem. The other deals with building a realistic model of diffusion underlying financial markets. The simplest mean-field theory capable of mimicking the non-Fermi liquid behavior of the critical point in the two-impurity Kondo problem is presented. In this approach Landau's adiabaticity assumption--of a one-to-one correspondence between the low-energy excitations of the interacting and noninteracting systems--is violated through the presence of decoupled local degrees of freedom. These do not couple directly to external fields but appear indirectly in the physical properties leading, for example, to the log(T, omega) behavior of the staggered magnetic susceptibility. Also, as observed previously, the correlation function = -1/4 is a consequence of the equal weights of the singlet and triplet impurity configurations at the critical point. In the second problem, a numerical model is developed to describe the diffusion of prices in the market. Implied binomial (or multinomial) trees are constructed to enable practical pricing of derivative securities in consistency with the existing market. The method developed here is capable of accounting for both the strike price and term structure of the implied volatility. It includes the correct treatment of interest rate and dividends which proves robust even if these quantities are unusually large. The method is explained both as a set of individual innovations and, from a different prospective, as a consequence of a single plausible transformation from the tree of spot prices to the tree of futures prices.

  3. Evolution of a 90-day model of care for bundled episodic payments for congestive heart failure in home care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feld, April; Madden-Baer, Rose; McCorkle, Ruth

    2016-01-01

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Innovation Center's Episode-Based Payment initiatives propose a large opportunity to reduce cost from waste and variation and stand to align hospitals, physicians, and postacute providers in the redesign of care that achieves savings and improve quality. Community-based organizations are at the forefront of this care redesign through innovative models of care aimed at bridging gaps in care coordination and reducing hospital readmissions. This article describes a community-based provider's approach to participation under the Bundled Payments for Care Improvement initiative and a 90-day model of care for congestive heart failure in home care.

  4. GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Del Castillo, Juan; Escobar-Curbelo, Luis; Martínez-Ortíz de Zárate, Mikel; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; García-Lamberechts, Jorge; Moreno-Cuervo, Álvaro; Fernández, Cristina; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier

    2017-06-01

    To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and Pcapacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

  5. A predictive model of days from infection to discharge in patients with healthcare-associated urinary tract infections: a structural equation modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, B G; Anderson, M; Ferguson, J K

    2017-11-01

    Length of stay (LOS) in hospital is an important component of describing how costs change in relation to healthcare-associated infection and this variable underpins models used to evaluate cost. It this therefore imperative that estimations of LOS associated with infections are performed accurately. To test the relationships between the size of hospital, age, and patient comorbidity on days from admission to infection and days from infection to discharge in patients with a healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HAUTI), using structural equation modelling (SEM). A non-current cohort study in eight hospitals in New South Wales, Australia. All patients admitted to the hospital for >48 h and who acquired a HAUTI were included. From the 162,503 eligible patient admissions, 2821 (1.73%) acquired a HAUTI. SEM showed that the proposed model had acceptable fit indices for the combined sample (GFI = 1.00; AGFI = 1.00; NFI = 1.00; CFI = 1.00; RMSEA = 0.000). The main findings showed that age of patient had a direct association with days from admission to infection and with days from infection to discharge. Patient comorbidity had direct links to the variables days from admission to infection and days from infection to discharge. Multi-group analysis indicated that the age of male patients was more influential on the factor days from admission to infection when compared to female patients. Furthermore, the number of comorbidities was significantly more influential on days from admission to infection in male patients than in female patients. As the first published study to use SEM to explore a healthcare-associated infection and the predictors of days from infection to discharge in hospital, we can confirm that accounting for the timing of infection during hospitalization is important and that patient comorbidity influences the timing of infection. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Day ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a mixed data model and hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2008-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, forecast of energy prices is a key information for the market participants. However, price signal usually has a complex behavior due to its nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In spite of all performed researches on this area in the recent years, there is still an essential need for more accurate and robust price forecast methods. In this paper, a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and a hybrid forecast method is proposed for this purpose. The hybrid method is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster consists of a neural network (NN) and an evolutionary algorithms (EA). Both time domain and wavelet domain features are considered in a mixed data model for price forecast, in which the candidate input variables are refined by a feature selection technique. The adjustable parameters of the whole method are fine-tuned by a cross-validation technique. The proposed method is examined on PJM electricity market and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (author)

  7. Agent-Based Modeling of Day-Ahead Real Time Pricing in a Pool-Based Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. Yousefi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an agent-based structure of the electricity retail market is presented based on which day-ahead (DA energy procurement for customers is modeled. Here, we focus on operation of only one Retail Energy Provider (REP agent who purchases energy from DA pool-based wholesale market and offers DA real time tariffs to a group of its customers. As a model of customer response to the offered real time prices, an hourly acceptance function is proposed in order to represent the hourly changes in the customer’s effective demand according to the prices. Here, Q-learning (QL approach is applied in day-ahead real time pricing for the customers enabling the REP agent to discover which price yields the most benefit through a trial-and-error search. Numerical studies are presented based on New England day-ahead market data which include comparing the results of RTP based on QL approach with that of genetic-based pricing.

  8. Design of a day tank glass furnace using a transient model and steady-state computation fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz-Ibarra, Oscar; Abad, Pablo; Molina, Alejandro

    2013-01-01

    To design day tanks with energy efficiency and good operation standards, a detailed transient model that considers the melting, refining, cooling and working stages of the glass production process was developed. With the model, the required power input was determined, with glass coverage with batch (β) as parameter, for a furnace with a daily production of 1130 kg of soda-lime glass and 14 h for melting/refining. A detailed analysis of the energy balance with the model showed that during the daily cycle about 70% of the energy input is released with the flue gas. During the working stage most of the energy escapes through the doors. As the peak of energy consumption is during the refining process, the power requirement for this stage defines the global power requirement. Calculated energy efficiencies vary between 13% and 16% for β = 70% and 30% respectively. A steady state CFD simulation of the combustion chamber and glass tank shows that a side-fired burner configuration allows for lower gas velocities and temperatures close to the glass and the furnace walls while guaranteeing the same heat transfer characteristics to the glass than the more traditional end-fired (U-type) furnaces. -- Highlights: ► A transient model of a day tank glass furnace captures main process characteristics. ► Heat loss through doors during working stage impacts thermal efficiency. ► A side-fired burner configuration should be preferred to an end-fired approach

  9. Kinematic Analysis of a Six-Degrees-of-Freedom Model Based on ISB Recommendation: A Repeatability Analysis and Comparison with Conventional Gait Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Żuk, Magdalena; Pezowicz, Celina

    2015-01-01

    Objective. The purpose of the present work was to assess the validity of a six-degrees-of-freedom gait analysis model based on the ISB recommendation on definitions of joint coordinate systems (ISB 6DOF) through a quantitative comparison with the Helen Hays model (HH) and repeatability assessment. Methods. Four healthy subjects were analysed with both marker sets: an HH marker set and four marker clusters in ISB 6DOF. A navigated pointer was used to indicate the anatomical landmark position in the cluster reference system according to the ISB recommendation. Three gait cycles were selected from the data collected simultaneously for the two marker sets. Results. Two protocols showed good intertrial repeatability, which apart from pelvic rotation did not exceed 2°. The greatest differences between protocols were observed in the transverse plane as well as for knee angles. Knee internal/external rotation revealed the lowest subject-to-subject and interprotocol repeatability and inconsistent patterns for both protocols. Knee range of movement in transverse plane was overestimated for the HH set (the mean is 34°), which could indicate the cross-talk effect. Conclusions. The ISB 6DOF anatomically based protocol enabled full 3D kinematic description of joints according to the current standard with clinically acceptable intertrial repeatability and minimal equipment requirements.

  10. Dinosaur Day!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Sandra; Baptiste, H. Prentice

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe how they capitalized on their first-grade students' love of dinosaurs by hosting a fun-filled Dinosaur Day in their classroom. On Dinosaur Day, students rotated through four dinosaur-related learning stations that integrated science content with art, language arts, math, and history in a fun and time-efficient…

  11. Derivation and external validation of a case mix model for the standardized reporting of 30-day stroke mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, Benjamin D; Campbell, James; Cloud, Geoffrey C; Hoffman, Alex; James, Martin; Tyrrell, Pippa J; Wolfe, Charles D A; Rudd, Anthony G

    2014-11-01

    Case mix adjustment is required to allow valid comparison of outcomes across care providers. However, there is a lack of externally validated models suitable for use in unselected stroke admissions. We therefore aimed to develop and externally validate prediction models to enable comparison of 30-day post-stroke mortality outcomes using routine clinical data. Models were derived (n=9000 patients) and internally validated (n=18 169 patients) using data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program, the national register of acute stroke in England and Wales. External validation (n=1470 patients) was performed in the South London Stroke Register, a population-based longitudinal study. Models were fitted using general estimating equations. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and correlation plots. Two final models were derived. Model A included age (<60, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, and ≥90 years), National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Score (NIHSS) on admission, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, and stroke type (ischemic versus primary intracerebral hemorrhage). Model B was similar but included only the consciousness component of the NIHSS in place of the full NIHSS. Both models showed excellent discrimination and calibration in internal and external validation. The c-statistics in external validation were 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.89) and 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.89) for models A and B, respectively. We have derived and externally validated 2 models to predict mortality in unselected patients with acute stroke using commonly collected clinical variables. In settings where the ability to record the full NIHSS on admission is limited, the level of consciousness component of the NIHSS provides a good approximation of the full NIHSS for mortality prediction. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  12. Subjective health complaints, functional ability, fear avoidance beliefs, and days on sickness benefits after work rehabilitation - a mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Øyeflaten, Irene; Opsahl, Jon; Eriksen, Hege R; Braathen, Tore Norendal; Lie, Stein Atle; Brage, Søren; Ihlebæk, Camilla M; Breivik, Kyrre

    2016-05-23

    Long-term sick leave and withdrawal from working life is a concern in western countries. In Norway, comprehensive inpatient work rehabilitation may be offered to sick listed individuals at risk of long-term absence from work. Knowledge about prognostic factors for work outcomes after long-term sick leave and work rehabilitation is still limited. The aim of this study was to test a mediation model for various hypothesized biopsychosocial predictors of continued sick leave after inpatient work rehabilitation. One thousand one hundred fifty-five participants on long-term sick leave from eight different work rehabilitation clinics answered comprehensive questionnaires at arrival to the clinic, and were followed with official register data on sickness benefits for 3 years. Structural equation models were conducted, with days on sickness benefits after work rehabilitation as the outcome. Fear avoidance beliefs for work mediated the relation between both musculoskeletal complaints and education on days on sickness benefits after work rehabilitation. The relation between musculoskeletal complaints and fear avoidance beliefs for work was furthermore fully mediated by poor physical function. Previous sick leave had a strong independent effect on continued sick leave after work rehabilitation. Fear avoidance beliefs for work did not mediate the small effect of pseudoneurological complaints on continued sick leave. Poor coping/interaction ability was neither related to continued sick leave nor fear avoidance beliefs for work. The mediation model was partly supported by the data, and provides some possible new insight into how fear avoidance beliefs for work and functional ability may intervene with subjective health complaints and days on sickness benefits after work rehabilitation.

  13. The relation between degree-2160 spectral models of Earth's gravitational and topographic potential: a guide on global correlation measures and their dependency on approximation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirt, Christian; Rexer, Moritz; Claessens, Sten; Rummel, Reiner

    2017-10-01

    Comparisons between high-degree models of the Earth's topographic and gravitational potential may give insight into the quality and resolution of the source data sets, provide feedback on the modelling techniques and help to better understand the gravity field composition. Degree correlations (cross-correlation coefficients) or reduction rates (quantifying the amount of topographic signal contained in the gravitational potential) are indicators used in a number of contemporary studies. However, depending on the modelling techniques and underlying levels of approximation, the correlation at high degrees may vary significantly, as do the conclusions drawn. The present paper addresses this problem by attempting to provide a guide on global correlation measures with particular emphasis on approximation effects and variants of topographic potential modelling. We investigate and discuss the impact of different effects (e.g., truncation of series expansions of the topographic potential, mass compression, ellipsoidal versus spherical approximation, ellipsoidal harmonic coefficient versus spherical harmonic coefficient (SHC) representation) on correlation measures. Our study demonstrates that the correlation coefficients are realistic only when the model's harmonic coefficients of a given degree are largely independent of the coefficients of other degrees, permitting degree-wise evaluations. This is the case, e.g., when both models are represented in terms of SHCs and spherical approximation (i.e. spherical arrangement of field-generating masses). Alternatively, a representation in ellipsoidal harmonics can be combined with ellipsoidal approximation. The usual ellipsoidal approximation level (i.e. ellipsoidal mass arrangement) is shown to bias correlation coefficients when SHCs are used. Importantly, gravity models from the International Centre for Global Earth Models (ICGEM) are inherently based on this approximation level. A transformation is presented that enables a

  14. One-Day Prediction of Biometeorological Conditions in a Mediterranean Urban Environment Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Moustris

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study, deals with the 24-hour prognosis of the outdoor biometeorological conditions in an urban monitoring site within the Greater Athens area, Greece. For this purpose, artificial neural networks (ANNs modelling techniques are applied in order to predict the maximum and the minimum value of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET one day ahead as well as the persistence of the hours with extreme human biometeorological conditions. The findings of the analysis showed that extreme heat stress appears to be 10.0% of the examined hours within the warm period of the year, against extreme cold stress for 22.8% of the hours during the cold period of the year. Finally, human thermal comfort sensation accounts for 81.8% of the hours during the year. Concerning the PET prognosis, ANNs have a remarkable forecasting ability to predict the extreme daily PET values one day ahead, as well as the persistence of extreme conditions during the day, at a significant statistical level of .

  15. Limits on same-day billing in Medicaid hinders integration of behavioral health into the medical home model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roby, Dylan H; Jones, Erynne E

    2016-02-01

    The potential expansion of insurance coverage through the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 can facilitate the reduction of access barriers and improved quality for behavioral health care. More than 5 million of the newly insured are expected to have mental health and substance use disorders. In addition, state and federal efforts to integrate behavioral and medical health needs through patient-centered medical home models and innovations in payment strategies provide an unprecedented opportunity to use federal financial support to improve not only access to care, but also improve quality through active care coordination, use of interdisciplinary teams, colocating services, and engaging in warm hand-offs between providers in the same setting. These potential advances are hindered in 24 different states because of Medicaid payment policy, with 7 explicitly limiting the ability to reimburse for physical health and behavioral health services on the same day for all providers. Without the ability for providers to be reimbursed for different services on the same day to improve behavioral and medical health care coordination, these states could be limited in their ability to improve care via patient-centered approaches and interdisciplinary team-based care that would involve physicians, clinical psychologists, psychiatrists, and other mental health professionals. Limits on same-day billing in Medicaid programs could impact up to 36.7 million people in 24 states, which is approximately 52.6% of all Medicaid enrollees. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Identifying models of delivery, care domains and quality indicators relevant to palliative day services: a scoping review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Seán R; Dempster, Martin; McCorry, Noleen K

    2017-05-16

    With an ageing population and increasing numbers of people with life-limiting illness, there is a growing demand for palliative day services. There is a need to measure and demonstrate the quality of these services, but there is currently little agreement on which aspects of care should be used to do this. The aim of the scoping review will be to map the extent, range and nature of the evidence around models of delivery, care domains and existing quality indicators used to evaluate palliative day services. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) will be searched for evidence using consensus development methods; randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials; mixed methods; and prospective, longitudinal or retrospective case-control studies to develop or test quality indicators for evaluating palliative care within non-residential settings, including day hospices and community or primary care settings. At least two researchers will independently conduct all searches, study selection and data abstraction procedures. Meta-analyses and statistical methods of synthesis are not planned as part of the review. Results will be reported using numerical counts, including number of indicators in each care domain and by using qualitative approach to describe important indicator characteristics. A conceptual model will also be developed to summarise the impact of different aspects of quality in a palliative day service context. Methodological quality relating to indicator development will be assessed using the Appraisal of Indicators through Research and Evaluation (AIRE) tool. Overall strength of evidence will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. Final decisions on quality assessment will be made via consensus between review authors. Identifying, developing and implementing evidence-based quality indicators is critical to the evaluation and

  17. Mathematical modeling of growth of Salmonella in raw ground beef under isothermal conditions from 10 to 45 Degree C

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this study was to develop primary and secondary models to describe the growth of Salmonella in raw ground beef. Primary and secondary models can be integrated into a dynamic model that can predict the microbial growth under varying environmental conditions. Growth data of Salmonel...

  18. The Robust Learning Model with a Spiral Curriculum: Implications for the Educational Effectiveness of Online Master Degree Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Yoram; Neumann, Edith; Lewis, Shelia

    2017-01-01

    This study integrated the Spiral Curriculum approach into the Robust Learning Model as part of a continuous improvement process that was designed to improve educational effectiveness and then assessed the differences between the initial and integrated models as well as the predictability of the first course in the integrated learning model on a…

  19. Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2016-12-01

    The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

  20. Model Kassel - more than waste disposal. Kassel days of raw materials; Kasseler Modell - mehr als Abfallentsorgung. Kasseler Wertstofftage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urban, Arnd I.; Halm, Gerhard (eds.)

    2009-07-01

    Within the meeting at 13th and 14th May, 2009 in Moevenpick Hotel Kassel (Federal Republic of Germany), the following lectures were held: (1) Future waste management between hygienic of housing projects and production of secondary raw materials (Henning Friege); (2) Waste management in Hessen (Edgar Freund); (3) Legal evaluation of model experiments - Regulation of packaging and agreement of coordination (Hartmut Gassner); (4) Model experiments according to alternative recording systems - an actual review (Gabriele Becker); (5) Experiences with the system Yellow Tun Plus in Leipzig and Berlin (Ruediger Oetjen-Dehne); (6) Green Tin Plus - An alternative recording system for recyclable materials (Alfred Ehrhard); (7) ''Sack in a container'' - the trend-setting system of disposal (Michael Wieczorek); (8) Municipal motives and targets (Thomas-Erik Junge); (9) Project ''Wet and dry tun'' Kassel (Gerhard Halm); (10) Process engineering investigation and economic-ecological evaluation of the Kassel model (Arnd I. Urban, Ramona Schroeer); (11) Implementation and experiences in te area of collection with the system ''Wet and dry tun'' (Stefan Stremme, Katja Weiss); (12) First experiences with the utilization of wet and dry material flows from the test area Kassel (Ramona Schroeer, Niklas Schiel); (13) Possibilities and boundary conditions of a recycling of raw materials from waste blends (Joachim Christiani); (14) Possibilities of a waste incinerator as a central component in the waste management of the center of disposal Pohlsche Heide at Minden Luebbecke (Thomas Kropp); (15) The other tuns (Helmut Rechberger).

  1. Nuclear mass formula with a neutron skin degree of freedom and finite-range model for the surface energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Myers, W.D.

    1984-01-01

    The possibility of extending the model used by Moeller and Nix in 1980 to calculate nuclear masses and fission barriers for nuclei throughout the periodic system to include provision for the existence of a neutron skin is studied. The model gives excellent fit to masses and fission barriers and improves predictions of isotopic trends in charge radii

  2. A constituent quark model with colour degrees of freedom confronts the data on hadron-nucleus interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozanska, M.; Jezabek, M.

    1991-04-01

    Three version of a model with colour excitations of constituent quarks are examined using inclusive leading proton and antiproton spectra in nuclear interactions at high energies. The comparison with experimental data excludes the models in which fragmentation into leading final hadrons depends only on the colour charge of constituents in an intermediate system. (author)

  3. A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corro Ramos, Isaac; van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Feenstra, Talitha L; Al, Maiwenn J

    2017-01-01

    The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of

  4. Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

    2017-06-01

    Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

  5. Intraperitoneal administration of docosahexaenoic acid for 14days increases serum unesterified DHA and seizure latency in the maximal pentylenetetrazol model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trépanier, Marc-Olivier; Lim, Joonbum; Lai, Terence K Y; Cho, Hye Jin; Domenichiello, Anthony F; Chen, Chuck T; Taha, Ameer Y; Bazinet, Richard P; Burnham, W M

    2014-04-01

    Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) which has been shown to raise seizure thresholds following acute administration in rats. The aims of the present experiment were the following: 1) to test whether subchronic DHA administration raises seizure threshold in the maximal pentylenetetrazol (PTZ) model 24h following the last injection and 2) to determine whether the increase in seizure threshold is correlated with an increase in serum and/or brain DHA. Animals received daily intraperitoneal (i.p.) injections of 50mg/kg of DHA, DHA ethyl ester (DHA EE), or volume-matched vehicle (albumin/saline) for 14days. On day 15, one subset of animals was seizure tested in the maximal PTZ model (Experiment 1). In a separate (non-seizure tested) subset of animals, blood was collected, and brains were excised following high-energy, head-focused microwave fixation. Lipid analysis was performed on serum and brain (Experiment 2). For data analysis, the DHA and DHA EE groups were combined since they did not differ significantly from each other. In the maximal PTZ model, DHA significantly increased seizure latency by approximately 3-fold as compared to vehicle-injected animals. This increase in seizure latency was associated with an increase in serum unesterified DHA. Total brain DHA and brain unesterified DHA concentrations, however, did not differ significantly in the treatment and control groups. An increase in serum unesterified DHA concentration reflecting increased flux of DHA to the brain appears to explain changes in seizure threshold, independent of changes in brain DHA concentrations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Hourly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  7. SiB3 Modeled Global 1-degree Hourly Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Flux, 1998-2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Simple Biosphere Model, Version 3 (SiB3) was used to produce a global data set of hourly carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere for...

  8. GLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 3 Hourly 1.0 x 1.0 degree Subsetted V001

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah 2.7.1 model in the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The data are in...

  9. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Monthly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  10. Radiochemistry days

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-09-01

    This document provides the 44 papers (transparencies used during the presentations and posters) presented at the Radiochemistry Days, held September 3-4, 1998 in Nantes, France. The main studied topics were problematic questions concerning the nuclear fuel cycle and in particular the management, storage of radioactive wastes and the environmental impact. (O.M.)

  11. Circadian activity rhythms during the last days of Nothobranchius rachovii's life: a descriptive model of circadian system breakdown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas-Sánchez, Alejandro; Martínez-Nicolás, Antonio; Madrid, Juan Antonio; Almaida-Pagán, Pedro Francisco; Mendiola, Pilar; de Costa, Jorge

    2015-04-01

    Several studies have been performed to identify age-related changes in the circadian system (CS) but the impairment of the CS and its chronodisruption at the end of an organism life have not been studied in depth. Aging commonly affects the input pathways into the biological clock or restraints their processing, therefore simplifying the system output, the overt rhythms. The purpose of this work was to do a complete characterization of changes that occurs in the CS in the last stage of a vertebrate organism life and to develop tools able to detect in which moment of the last days of life is the animal, using an overt rhythm, the rest-activity rhythm (RAR). For that, a fish species proposed as model for aging studies, Nothobranchius rachovii, has been used. A progressive and sequential CS breakdown has been described for the last 22 d of life of N. rachovii (∼7% of total life), suffering a general RAR impairment mainly reflected by changes in phase regularity, complexity, amplitude and the ability to stay synchronized to the LD cycle. Also, an equation of days remaining of life, based on the RAR description, has been calculated and proposed as a tool to identify close-to-death individuals which could be subjected to an adequate restoring treatment to enhance the CS function and improve their well-being.

  12. Bayesian mixture modeling of significant p values: A meta-analytic method to estimate the degree of contamination from H₀.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronau, Quentin Frederik; Duizer, Monique; Bakker, Marjan; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2017-09-01

    Publication bias and questionable research practices have long been known to corrupt the published record. One method to assess the extent of this corruption is to examine the meta-analytic collection of significant p values, the so-called p -curve (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014a). Inspired by statistical research on false-discovery rates, we propose a Bayesian mixture model analysis of the p -curve. Our mixture model assumes that significant p values arise either from the null-hypothesis H ₀ (when their distribution is uniform) or from the alternative hypothesis H1 (when their distribution is accounted for by a simple parametric model). The mixture model estimates the proportion of significant results that originate from H ₀, but it also estimates the probability that each specific p value originates from H ₀. We apply our model to 2 examples. The first concerns the set of 587 significant p values for all t tests published in the 2007 volumes of Psychonomic Bulletin & Review and the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition; the mixture model reveals that p values higher than about .005 are more likely to stem from H ₀ than from H ₁. The second example concerns 159 significant p values from studies on social priming and 130 from yoked control studies. The results from the yoked controls confirm the findings from the first example, whereas the results from the social priming studies are difficult to interpret because they are sensitive to the prior specification. To maximize accessibility, we provide a web application that allows researchers to apply the mixture model to any set of significant p values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Day jobs/nightwork: Academic staff studying towards higher degrees ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    They need teaching relief, research assistance and financial support for their research activities as well as access to resources and equipment and the support of experienced and knowledgeable supervisors and mentors. Academic staff members' perceptions and reflections on the experience of studying towards Masters ...

  14. IMF B(y) and day-night conductivity effects in the expanding polar cap convection model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, J. J.; Gorney, D. J.; Siscoe, G. L.; Crooker, N. U.

    1987-01-01

    During southward B(z) periods the open field line region in the ionosphere (polar cap) expands due to increased dayside merging. Ionospheric plasma flow patterns result which can be classified by the sign of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(y) component. In this paper, a time-dependent ionospheric convection model is constructed to simulate these flows. The model consists of a spiral boundary with a gap in it. The sign of the IMF B(y) component determines the geometry of the gap. A potential is applied across the gap and distributed around the boundary. A flow results which enters the polar cap through the gap and uniformly pushes the boundary outward. Results of the model show that B(y) effects are greatest near the gap and virtually unnoticeable on the nightside of the polar cap. Adding a day-night ionospheric conductivity gradient concentrates the polar cap electric field toward dawn. The resulting flow curvature gives a sunward component that is independent of B(y). These patterns are shown to be consistent with published observations.

  15. Model Specifications for Estimating Labor Market Returns to Associate Degrees: How Robust Are Fixed Effects Estimates? A CAPSEE Working Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belfield, Clive; Bailey, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Recently, studies have adopted fixed effects modeling to identify the returns to college. This method has the advantage over ordinary least squares estimates in that unobservable, individual-level characteristics that may bias the estimated returns are differenced out. But the method requires extensive longitudinal data and involves complex…

  16. Nuclear mass formula with a neutron skin degree of freedom and finite-range model for the surface energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Myers, W.D.

    1984-03-01

    We study the possibility of extending the model used by Moeller and Nix in 1980 to calculate nuclear masses and fission barriers for nuclei throughout the periodic system, to describe compressibility effects and the existence of a neutron skin. 9 references

  17. Nuclear mass formula with a neutron skin degree of freedom and finite-range model for the surface energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, P.; Myers, W.D.

    1984-03-01

    We study the possibility of extending the model used by Moeller and Nix in 1980 to calculate nuclear masses and fission barriers for nuclei throughout the periodic system, to describe compressibility effects and the existence of a neutron skin. 9 references. (WHK)

  18. Empowering Staff and Clients: Comparing Preferences for Management Models by the Professional Degrees Held by Organization Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardina, Donna; Montana, Salvador

    2011-01-01

    In this article, findings from a national survey of social service managers are described. Respondents were asked to identify theories and models of management that influenced their administrative activities. The results indicate that many of the respondents used an empowerment-oriented approach to management. Respondents were more likely to…

  19. Pamphlet day

    OpenAIRE

    Eastwood, Phil; Dunne, Chris; Fowler, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Pamphlet Day: A Political Protest Pamphlet and Zine Event focused around the occupation of Loughborough Public Library, Granby Street, Loughborough, LE11 3DZ, UK. ABSTRACT “Throughout the 20th Century artists have engaged provocatively with text, images and performance, publishing writings, pamphlets, and manifestos that challenge the status quo.” (1) Loughborough Echo, May 2017 https://www.loughboroughecho.net/whats-on/arts-culture-news/pamphlet-art-feature-events-13038989 A s...

  20. Compartmental modeling with nitrogen-15 to determine effects of degree of fat saturation on intraruminal N recycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldick, B S; Firkins, J L; Kohn, R A

    2000-09-01

    Two- and three-compartment models were developed to describe N kinetics within the rumen using three Holstein heifers and one nonlactating Holstein cow fitted with ruminal and duodenal cannulas. A 4 x 4 Latin square design included a control diet containing no supplemental fat and diets containing 4.85% of diet dry matter as partially hydrogenated tallow (iodine value = 13), tallow (iodine value = 51), or animal-vegetable fat (iodine value = 110). Effects of fat on intraruminal N recycling and relationships between intraruminal N recycling and ruminal protozoa concentration or the efficiency of microbial protein synthesis were determined. A pulse dose of 15(NH4)2SO4 was introduced into the ruminal NH3 N pool, and samples were taken over time from the ruminal NH3 N and nonammonia N pools. For the three-compartment model, precipitates of nonammonia N after trichloroacetic acid and ethanol extraction were defined as slowly turning over nonammonia N; rapidly turning over nonammonia N was determined by difference. Curves of 15N enrichment were fit to models with two (NH3 N and nonammonia N) or three (NH3 N, rapidly turning over nonammonia N, and slowly turning over nonammonia N) compartments using the software SAAM II. Because the three-compartment model did not remove a small systematic bias or improve the fit of the data, the two-compartment model was used to provide measurements of intraruminal N recycling. Intraruminal NH3 N recycling (45% for control) decreased linearly as fat unsaturation increased (50.2, 43.0, and 41.7% for partially hydrogenated tallow, tallow, and animal-vegetable fat, respectively). Intraruminal nitrogen recycling was not correlated with efficiency of microbial protein synthesis or ruminal protozoa counts.

  1. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  2. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  3. Model for the high-temperature oxygen-ordering thermodynamics in YBa2Cu3O6+x - inclusion of electron spin and charge degrees of freedom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleger, P.; Hardy, W.N.; Casalta, H.

    1994-01-01

    A lattice-gas model for the high temperature oxygen-ordering thermodynamics in YBa2Cu3O6+x is presented, which assumes constant effective pair interactions between oxygen atoms and includes in a simple fashion the effect of the electron spin and charge degrees of freedom. This is done using...... a commonly utilized picture relating the creation of mobile electron holes and unpaired spins to the insertion of oxygen into the basal plane. The model is solved using the nearest-neighbor square approximation of the cluster-variation method. In addition, preliminary Monte Carlo results using next......-nearest-neighbor interactions are presented. The model is compared to experimental results for the thermodynamic response function, kT (partial derivative x/partial derivative mu)T (mu is the chemical potential), the number of monovalent copper atoms, and the fractional site occupancies. The model drastically improves...

  4. Modern day addictions: The role of temptations in a reflective-impulsive-interoceptive awareness model of information system use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ofir eTurel

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examines a behavioral tripartite model developed in the field of addiction, and applied here to understanding general and impulsive information technology use. It suggests that technology use is driven by two information-processing brain systems: reflective and impulsive, and that their effects on use are modulated by interoceptive awareness processes. The resultant reflective-impulsive-interoceptive awareness model is tested in two behavioral studies. Both studies employ SEM techniques to time-lagged self-report data from n1=300 and n2=369 social networking site users. Study 1 demonstrated that temptations augment the effect of habit on technology use, and reduce the effect of satisfaction on use. Study 2 showed that temptations strengthen the effect of habit on impulsive technology use, and weaken the effect of behavioral expectations on impulsive technology use. Hence, the results consistently support the notion that information technology users’ behaviors are influenced by reflective and impulsive information processing systems; and that the equilibrium of these systems is determined, at least in part, by one’s temptations. These results can serve as a basis for understanding the etiology of modern day addictions.

  5. Differentiated risk models in portfolio optimization: a comparative analysis of the degree of diversification and performance in the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ricardo Gartner

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Faced with so many risk modeling alternatives in portfolio optimization, several questions arise regarding their legitimacy, utility and applicability. In particular, a question arises involving the adherence of the alternative models with regard to the basic presupposition of Markowitz's classical model, with regard to the concept of diversification as a means of controlling the relationship between risk and return within a process of optimization. In this context, the aim of this article is to explore the risk-differentiated configurations that entropy can provide, from the point of view of the repercussions that these have on the degree of diversification and on portfolios performance. The reach of this objective requires that a comparative analysis is made between models that include entropy in their formulation and the classic Markowitz model. In order to contribute to this debate, this article proposes that adaptations are made to the models of relative minimum entropy and of maximum entropy, so that these can be applied to investment portfolio optimizations. The comparative analysis was based on performance indicators and on a ratio of the degree of portfolio diversification. The portfolios were formed by considering a sample of fourteen assets that compose the IBOVESPA, which were projected during the period from January 2007 to December 2009, and took into account the matrices of covariance that were formed as from January 1999. When comparing the Markowitz model with two models that were constructed to represent new risk configurations based on entropy optimization, the present study concluded that the first model was far superior to the others. Not only did the Markowitz model present better accumulated nominal yields, it also presented a far greater predictive efficiency and better effective performance, when considering the trade-off between risk and return. However, with regards to diversification, the Markowitz model concentrated

  6. Differentially expressed proteins on postoperative 3 days healing in rabbit Achilles tendon rupture model after early kinesitherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jialili, Ainuer; Jielile, Jiasharete; Abudoureyimu, Shajidan; Sabirhazi, Gulnur; Redati, Darebai; Bai, Jing-Ping; Bin, Liang; Duisabai, Sailike; Aishan, Jiangaguli; Kasimu, Haxiaobieke

    2011-04-01

    , peroxiredoxin 1, alpha-1-antiproteinase E a-1 and MAD2L1 binding protein, etc. And some with the molecular chaperone, oxidative stress, energy metabolism, signal transduction, coupled with the tendon cell expression and protein synthesis, proliferate, differentiate and are closely related to the AT healing. The GAPDH protein was further validated through Western blotting. It was indicated that some differentially expressed proteins were involved in various metabolism pathways and may play an important role in initial healing of AT rupture. Differentially expressed proteins in rabbit healing AT model may contribute to 3 days healing of AT rupture through a new mechanobiological mechanism due to the application of postoperative early kinesitherapy.

  7. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2018-01-01

    Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

  8. Inexact stochastic risk-aversion optimal day-ahead dispatch model for electricity system management with wind power under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Ling; Huang, Guo-He; Huang, Lu-Cheng; Xie, Yu-Lei; Niu, Dong-Xiao

    2016-01-01

    High penetration of wind power generation and deregulated electricity market brings a great challenge to the electricity system operators. It is crucial to make optimal strategy among various generation units and spinning reserve for supporting the system safety operation. By integrating interval two-stage programming and stochastic robust programming, this paper proposes a novel robust model for day-ahead dispatch and risk-aversion management under uncertainties. In the proposed model, the uncertainties are expressed as interval values with different scenario probability. The proposed method requires low computation, and still retains the complete information. A case study is to validate the effectiveness of this approach. Facing the uncertainties of future demand and electricity price, the system operators need to make optimal dispatch strategy for thermal power units and wind turbine, and arrange proper spinning reserve and flexible demand response program to mitigate wind power forecasting error. The optimal strategies provide the system operators with better trade-off between the maximum benefits and the minimum system risk. In additional, two different market rules are compared. The results show that extra financial penalty for the wind power dispatch deviation is another efficient way to enhance the risk consciousness of decision makers and lead to more conservative strategy. - Highlights: • An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming model for electricity system with wind power penetration. • Uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability distributions. • Demand response program was introduced to adjust the deviation in real-time market. • Financial penalty for imbalance risk from wind power generation was evaluated.

  9. A simple model for quantifying the degree of layer-by-layer growth in low energy ion deposition of thin films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huhtamaeki, T.; Jahma, M.O.; Koponen, I.T.

    2007-01-01

    Layer-by-layer growth of thin films can be promoted by using low energy ion deposition (LEID) techniques. The basic process affecting the growth are often quite diverse, but often the ion impact induced inter layer mass transfer processes due to adatom insertion to lower step edges or pile-ups to step edges above dominate. In this paper we propose a simple phenomenological model which describes the growth of thin films in LEID under these conditions. The model makes possible to distinguish the dominant growth, the detection of the transition from the 3D growth to 2D growth, and it can be used to quantify the degree of layer-by-layer growth. The model contains only two parameters, which can be phenomenologically related to the properties of the bombarding ion beam

  10. Review evaluation indicators of health information technology course of master's degree in medical sciences universities' based on CIPP Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarmohammadian, Mohammad Hossein; Mohebbi, Nooshin

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity of teaching and learning processes in universities emphasizes the necessity of assessment of the quality of education which improves the efficiency and effectiveness of the country. This study was conducted with an aim to review and develop the evaluation criteria of health information technology course at Master of Science level in Tehran, Shahid Beheshti, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Kashan medical universities in 2012 by using CIPP model. This was an applied and descriptive research with statistical population of faculty members (23), students (97), directorates (5), and library staff (5), with a total of 130 people, and sampling was done as a census. In order to collect data, four questionnaires were used based on Likert scale with scores ranging from 1 to 5. Questionnaires' validity was confirmed by consulting with health information technology and educational evaluation experts, and questionnaires' reliability of directorates, faculty, students, and library staff was tested using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient formula, which gave r = 0.74, r = 0.93, r = 0.98, and r = 0.80, respectively. SPSS software for data analysis and both descriptive and inferential statistics containing mean, frequency percentage, standard deviation, Pearson correlation, and Spearman correlation were used. With studies from various sources, commentary of experts, and based on the CIPP evaluation model, 139 indicators were determined and then evaluated, which were associated with this course based on the three factors of context, input, and process in the areas of human resources professional, academic services, students, directors, faculty, curriculum, budget, facilities, teaching-learning activities, and scientific research activities of students and faculty, and the activities of the library staff. This study showed that in total, the health information technology course at the Master of Science level is relatively good, but trying to improve and correct it in some areas and

  11. Intra-Day Trading System Design Based on the Integrated Model of Wavelet De-Noise and Genetic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongguang Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis has been proved to be capable of exploiting short-term fluctuations in financial markets. Recent results indicate that the market timing approach beats many traditional buy-and-hold approaches in most of the short-term trading periods. Genetic programming (GP was used to generate short-term trade rules on the stock markets during the last few decades. However, few of the related studies on the analysis of financial time series with genetic programming considered the non-stationary and noisy characteristics of the time series. In this paper, to de-noise the original financial time series and to search profitable trading rules, an integrated method is proposed based on the Wavelet Threshold (WT method and GP. Since relevant information that affects the movement of the time series is assumed to be fully digested during the market closed periods, to avoid the jumping points of the daily or monthly data, in this paper, intra-day high-frequency time series are used to fully exploit the short-term forecasting advantage of technical analysis. To validate the proposed integrated approach, an empirical study is conducted based on the China Securities Index (CSI 300 futures in the emerging China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX market. The analysis outcomes show that the wavelet de-noise approach outperforms many comparative models.

  12. Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day Ahead Short Term Solar PV Power Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV power forecasting is an essential tool for mitigating the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of PV output power in systems with high penetration levels of solar PV generation. Weather classification based modeling is an effective way to increase the accuracy of day-ahead short-term (DAST solar PV power forecasting because PV output power is strongly dependent on the specific weather conditions in a given time period. However, the accuracy of daily weather classification relies on both the applied classifiers and the training data. This paper aims to reveal how these two factors impact the classification performance and to delineate the relation between classification accuracy and sample dataset scale. Two commonly used classification methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNN and support vector machines (SVM are applied to classify the daily local weather types for DAST solar PV power forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China. We assessed the performance of SVM and KNN approaches, and then investigated the influences of sample scale, the number of categories, and the data distribution in different categories on the daily weather classification results. The simulation results illustrate that SVM performs well with small sample scale, while KNN is more sensitive to the length of the training dataset and can achieve higher accuracy than SVM with sufficient samples.

  13. Religious Engagement in a Risky Family Model Predicting Health in Older Black and White Seventh-day Adventists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Kelly R; Lee, Jerry W; Haviland, Mark G; Fraser, Gary E

    2012-11-01

    In a structural equation model, associations among latent variables - Child Poverty, Risky Family exposure, Religious Engagement, Negative Social Interactions, Negative Emotionality, and Perceived Physical Health - were evaluated in 6,753 Black and White adults aged 35-106 years (M = 60.5, SD = 13.0). All participants were members of the Seventh-day Adventist church surveyed in the Biopsychosocial Religion and Health Study (BRHS). Child Poverty was positively associated with both Risky Family exposure (conflict, neglect, abuse) and Religious Engagement (intrinsic religiosity, religious coping, religiousness). Risky Family was negatively associated with Religious Engagement and positively associated with both Negative Social Interactions (intrusive, failed to help, insensitive, rejecting) and Negative Emotionality (depression, negative affect, neuroticism). Religious Engagement was negatively associated with Negative Emotionality and Negative Social Interactions at a given level of risky family. Negative Social Interactions was positively associated with Negative Emotionality, which had a direct, negative effect on Perceived Physical Health. All constructs had indirect effects on Perceived Physical Health through Negative Emotionality. The effects of a risky family environment appear to be enduring, negatively affecting one's adult religious life, emotionality, social interactions, and perceived health. Religious engagement, however, may counteract the damaging effects of early life stress.

  14. Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic agent-based model of activity-travel behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijland, E.W.L.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention today in activity-based transport demand modeling. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that

  15. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wehner

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

  16. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-03-01

    The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

  17. The creation of cooling degree (CDD) and heating degree day (HDD) climatic maps for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The current six climatic regions map used in the SANS 204 (2011) South African National Building Standards does not optimally support quantified design decisions within the built environment. It also does not give an indication of the amount...

  18. The creation of cooling degree (CDD) and heating degree day (HDD) climatic maps for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available that could better support adaptive building design decisions in creating comfortable thermal environments. Over the last 100 years, many different heat strain indices have been proposed to indicate comparative thermal comfort levels. After reviewing...

  19. Extensive Loss of Islet Mass Beyond the First Day After Intraportal Human Islet Transplantation in a Mouse Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljebäck, Hanna; Grapensparr, Liza; Olerud, Johan; Carlsson, Per-Ola

    2016-01-01

    Clinical islet transplantation is characterized by a progressive deterioration of islet graft function, which renders many patients once again dependent on exogenous insulin administration within a couple of years. In this study, we aimed to investigate possible engraftment factors limiting the survival and viability of experimentally transplanted human islets beyond the first day after their transplantation to the liver. Human islets were transplanted into the liver of nude mice and characterized 1 or 30 days after transplantation by immunohistochemistry. The factors assessed were endocrine mass, cellular death, hypoxia, vascular density and amyloid formation in the transplanted islets. One day posttransplantation, necrotic cells, as well as apoptotic cells, were commonly observed. In contrast to necrotic death, apoptosis rates remained high 1 month posttransplantation, and the total islet mass was reduced by more than 50% between 1 and 30 days posttransplantation. Islet mass at 30 days posttransplantation correlated negatively to apoptotic death. Vascular density within the transplanted islets remained less than 30% of that in native human islets up to 30 days posttransplantation and was associated with prevailing hypoxia. Amyloid formation was rarely observed in the 1-day-old transplants, but was commonly observed in the 30-day-old islet transplants. We conclude that substantial islet cell death occurs beyond the immediate posttransplantation phase, particularly through apoptotic events. Concomitant low vascularization with prevailing hypoxia and progressive amyloid development was observed in the human islet grafts. Strategies to improve engraftment at the intraportal site or change of implantation site in the clinical setting are needed.

  20. The Degree Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wood, Johanna

    2016-01-01

    , empirical data relevant to the development of the degree adverb function is presented and possible relevant constructions identified. It is argued that the degree adverb function of that possibly occurs later than the historical dictionaries indicate. The degree adverb function of this is challenging...

  1. Comparison of the energy demand for comfort in houses of social interest in the municipality of Jiutepec, using the methodologies: degrees-day and TRNSYS; Comparacion de la demanda energetica para el confort de viviendas de interes social en el municipio de Jiutepec, utilizando las metodologias de grados-dia y de TRNSYS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gijon, Miguel; Alvarez, Gabriela; Aguilar, Jorge; Xaman, Jesus; Sima, Efrain; Flores, Jason (Mexico)

    2009-07-15

    In this article a thermal-environmental study is presented in order to evaluate the energy demand in the Morelos state. From collected climatologic data in seven automatic weather stations a comparative diagnosis by the application of two methodologies is realized, such as the one of the Degrees-day and the transitory thermal simulation of TRNSYS to determine the energy demand in traditional dwellings of social interest located in different regions of the State. In the methodology of the degrees-day the ambient temperature for two seasons of the year is used (rainy and dry) and the energy demand for the comfort in the Morelos State is evaluated. For the thermal simulation with the TRNSYS the climatic data obtained in monthly averages is used to determine the thermal loads of the house and the energy requirements in the different regions of the State. The results of the energy demand obtained by both methodologies for the municipality of Jiutepec and a statistic analysis of the existing relation between the degrees-day of cooling and the energy demand for cooling that the dynamic simulations deliver are presented. [Spanish] En este articulo se presenta un estudio termico-ambiental a fin de evaluar la demanda de energia en el Estado de Morelos. A partir de datos climatologicos recolectados en siete estaciones meteorologicas automaticas se realiza un diagnostico comparativo por la aplicacion de dos metodologias, como son la de los Grados-dia y la simulacion termica transitoria de TRNSYS para determinar la demanda energetica en viviendas tradicionales de interes social ubicadas en diferentes regiones del Estado. En la metodologia de los grados-dia se utiliza la temperatura ambiental para dos temporadas del ano (lluvias y secas) y se evalua la demanda energetica del Estado de Morelos para el confort. Para la simulacion termica con el TRNSYS se utiliza la informacion climatica obtenida en promedios mensuales para determinar las cargas termicas de la vivienda y los

  2. The classification of lung cancers and their degree of malignancy by FTIR, PCA-LDA analysis, and a physics-based computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaznowska, E; Depciuch, J; Łach, K; Kołodziej, M; Koziorowska, A; Vongsvivut, J; Zawlik, I; Cholewa, M; Cebulski, J

    2018-08-15

    Lung cancer has the highest mortality rate of all malignant tumours. The current effects of cancer treatment, as well as its diagnostics, are unsatisfactory. Therefore it is very important to introduce modern diagnostic tools, which will allow for rapid classification of lung cancers and their degree of malignancy. For this purpose, the authors propose the use of Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectroscopy combined with Principal Component Analysis-Linear Discriminant Analysis (PCA-LDA) and a physics-based computational model. The results obtained for lung cancer tissues, adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma FTIR spectra, show a shift in wavenumbers compared to control tissue FTIR spectra. Furthermore, in the FTIR spectra of adenocarcinoma there are no peaks corresponding to glutamate or phospholipid functional groups. Moreover, in the case of G2 and G3 malignancy of adenocarcinoma lung cancer, the absence of an OH groups peak was noticed. Thus, it seems that FTIR spectroscopy is a valuable tool to classify lung cancer and to determine the degree of its malignancy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of Indocyanine Green Concentration, Exposure Time, and Degree of Dissolution in Creating Toxic Anterior Segment Syndrome: Evaluation in a Rabbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamer Tandogan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To investigate the role of indocyanine green (ICG dye as a causative material of toxic anterior segment syndrome (TASS in an experimental rabbit model. Method. Eight eyes of four rabbits were allocated to this study. Capsular staining was performed using ICG dye, after which the anterior chamber was irrigated with a balanced salt solution. The effects of different concentrations (control, 0.25, 0.5, and 1.0%, exposure times (10 and 60 seconds, and the degree of dissolution (differently vortexed were investigated. The analysis involved anterior segment photography, ultrasound pachymetry, prostaglandin assay (PGE2 Parameter Assay, R&D systems, Inc., and scanning electron microscopy of each iris. Result. There was no reaction in the control eye. A higher aqueous level of PGE2 and more severe inflammatory reaction were observed in cases of eyes with higher concentration, longer exposure time, and poorly dissolved dye. Additionally, scanning electron microscopy revealed larger and coarser ICG particles. Conclusion. TASS occurrence may be associated with the concentration, exposure time, and degree of dissolution of ICG dye during cataract surgery.

  4. Diffusion-weighted MR imaging allows monitoring the effect of combretastatin A4 phosphate on rabbit implanted VX2 tumor model: 12-Day dynamic results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao Haibo; Ni Yicheng; Dai Xu; Zhang Jian; Chen Feng; Fan, Guoguang; Sun Ziping; Li Yaming; Zhou Hongxu; Xu Ke

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the 12-day dynamic characteristics of tumor response to intravenous administration of CA4P in rabbit VX2 tumor models. Methods: Study protocol was approved by local ethical committee for animal care and use. Sixteen rabbits with 32 tumors on bilateral legs were randomly divided into treated and control groups. Conventional and DWI images were acquired before and 24 h, 4 days, 8 days and 12 days after treatment. The dynamic changes of tumor on images were correlated with histological results. ADCs were compared among and between groups at different time points. Results: The tumors in treated group grew slower than those in control group. In treaded group, the mean ADC decreased slightly at 24 h point due to cell edema caused by ischemia. Then, it increased significantly at 4 days and 8 days because of progressive central necrosis. Finally, peripheral tumor proliferation caused a second decrease of ADC at 12 days. The significant difference of ΔADC% between the two groups at 24 h, 4 days and 8 days indicated that the change of ADC in treated group was really caused by CA4P. Conclusion: The dynamic histological changes of tumor caused by CA4P as reflected exactly by diffusion-weighted MR imaging indicate a noninvasive measure for monitoring tumor vascular targeting treatment.

  5. Increase of the Integration Degree of Wind Power Plants into the Energy System Using Wind Forecasting and Power Consumption Predictor Models by Transmission System Operator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manusov V.Z.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Wind power plants’ (WPPs high penetration into the power system leads to various inconveniences in the work of system operators. This fact is associated with the unpredictable nature of wind speed and generated power, respectively. Due to these factors, such source of electricity must be connected to the power system to avoid detrimental effects on the stability and quality of electricity. The power generated by the WPPs is not regulated by the system operator. Accurate forecasting of wind speed and power, as well as power load can solve this problem, thereby making a significant contribution to improving the power supply systems reliability. The article presents a mathematical model for the wind speed prediction, which is based on autoregression and fuzzy logic derivation of Takagi-Sugeno. The new model of wavelet transform has been developed, which makes it possible to include unnecessary noise from the model, as well as to reveal the cycling of the processes and their trend. It has been proved, that the proposed combination of methods can be used simultaneously to predict the power consumption and the wind power plant potential power at any time interval, depending on the planning horizon. The proposed models support a new scientific concept for the predictive control system of wind power stations and increase their degree integration into the electric power system.

  6. Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of

  7. Multi-Day Activity Scheduling Reactions to Planned Activities and Future Events in a Dynamic Model of Activity-Travel Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.; Timmermans, H.

    2014-01-01

    Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of

  8. Pressure and temperature dependence of laser-induced fluorescence of Sm:YAG to 100 kbar and 700 degree C and an empirical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, N.J.; Schiferl, D.

    1990-01-01

    The inability to measure pressure with accuracy at high temperature has been a hindrance to the development of simultaneous high-temperature, high-pressure experimental techniques. The results of recent laser-induced fluorescence studies at high temperature and high pressure indicate that Sm:YAG is a promising pressure calibrant with very low-temperature sensitivity. The most intense feature in the fluorescence spectrum is a doublet at 16186.5 cm -1 . The Sm:YAG doublet exhibits a pressure-induced peak shift comparable to the R 1 shift of ruby. However, the temperature-induced shift of the doublet is almost two orders of magnitude less than that observed for the R 1 peak. Simultaneous high-pressure-temperature experiments indicate that the pressure and temperature effects on the frequency and line shape can be added linearly. An empirical model based on the linear combination of pressure dependent frequency shift and temperature dependent linewidth and intensity ratio successfully predicts the doublet line shape at simultaneous pressure and temperature. Use of the model facilitates measurement of peak position at high temperature resulting in improved accuracy and repeatability of the pressure determination. Pressure measurements at 400 degree C and 40 kbar based on the Sm:YAG doublet peak position agree with the temperature-corrected ruby R 1 pressure measurement to within 3 kbar. At 15 kbar and 900 degree C the uncertainty in the Sm:YAG fluorescence peak wavelength is 5 cm -1 due to temperature-induced line broadening; this corresponds to an uncertainty in the pressure determination of ±2.5 kbar. The high thermal and chemical stability of YAG materials make Sm:YAG an ideal pressure calibrant for high-temperature applications

  9. Kazakh therapy on differential protein expression of Achilles tendon healing in a 7-day postoperative rabbit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuerai, Shawutali; Ainuer, Jialili; Jiasharete, Jielile; Darebai, Redati; Kayrat, Aldyarhan; Tang, Bin; Jiangannur, Zheyiken; Bai, Jingping; Makabel, Bolat

    2011-12-01

    To compare the effect of cast immobilization with that of early Kiymil arkili emdew (Kazakh exercise therapy) on the post-operative healing of Achilles tendon rupture in rabbits, and to observe the influence of early Kiymil arkili emdew on the differentially expressed proteins in the healing tendon. Forty-five New Zealand white rabbits were randomly divided into three groups (Arm A: control group; Arm B: postoperative immobilization group; and Arm C: postoperative early Kiymil arkili emdew group). After tenotomy, the rabbits of the two experimental groups received microsurgery to repair the ruptured tendons, and then received either cast immobilization or early Kiymil arkili emdew treatment. Achilles tendon tissue samples were collected 7 days after the surgery, and two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and MALDI-TOF-MS technique were used to analyze differentially expressed proteins in the tendon tissue of the three Arms. A total of 462.67 +/- 11.59, 532.33 +/- 27.79, and 515.33 +/- 6.56 protein spots were detected by the two-dimensional polyacrylamide gels in the Achilles tendon samples of the rabbits in Arms A, B, and C, respectively. Nineteen differentially expressed protein spots were randomly selected from Arm C. Among them, 7 were unique, and 15 had five times higher abundance than those in Arm B. These included annexin A2, gelsolin isoforms and alpha-1 Type III collagen. It was confirmed by western blot that gelsolin isoform b, annexin A2, etc. had specific and incremental expression in Arm C. The self-protective instincts of humans were overlooked in the classical postoperative treatment for Achilles tendon rupture with cast immobilization. Kiymil arkili emdew induced the specific and incremental expression of proteins in the repaired Achilles tendon in the early healing stage in a rabbit model, compared with those treated with postoperative cast immobilization. These differentially expressed proteins may contribute to the healing of the Achilles tendon via

  10. Numerical modeling of historical change of volcanic heat sources: Numerical modeling of heat and mass transport up to 1000 degree C; Kazansei netsugen no keiji henka no shumyureshon kaiseki: 1000 degree C madeno netsu{center{underscore}dot}ryutai shumyureshon kaiseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanano, Mineyuki [JMC Geothermal Engineering Corp., Iwate (Japan)

    1998-12-01

    Temperature structure and its historical change around volcanos has been of interest for volcanology, geothermal development, etc. Magmatic intrusives have temperatures ranging from 700 to 850 degree C. Thus, there exists super-critical fluid around them. Numerical modeling of temperature changes around young volcanos and their heat sources thus requires treatment of the super-critical fluid. We describe one method for effective treatment of the super-critical fluid in the numerical modeling of porous media for the purpose of solving large-scale high-temperature problems of such phenomena. (author)

  11. External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Yu

    Full Text Available A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke.The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient.The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82, and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84. Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008.The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

  12. The Future Days

    OpenAIRE

    Cerezo Rodríguez, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    In this memorandum it will be read all the documentation related to the Final Project Degree of Carlos Cerezo Rodríguez, The Future Days. The objective of this project has been to realise a mini-game (in form of interactive animation in Flash). So that, it will rest prepared for his posterior upload to websites that offer these services. As it will be appreciated in the writing, the process of construction of the project has been made through a phase of planning and preproduction, a phase of ...

  13. Strategic Factors in the Choice of a Model of Public Relations. Case Study: Seventh-day Adventist Church World Headquarters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, Holly M.

    A study tested a model of organizational variables that earlier research had identified as important in influencing what model(s) of public relations an organization selects. Models of public relations (as outlined by J. Grunig and Hunt in 1984) are defined as either press agentry, public information, two-way asymmetrical, or two-way symmetrical.…

  14. Function Modelling Of The Market And Assessing The Degree Of Similarity Between Real Properties - Dependent Or Independent Procedures In The Process Of Office Property Valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barańska Anna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Referring to the developed and presented in previous publications (e.g. Barańska 2011 two-stage algorithm for real estate valuation, this article addresses the problem of the relationship between the two stages of the algorithm. An essential part of the first stage is the multi-dimensional function modelling of the real estate market. As a result of selecting the model best fitted to the market data, in which the dependent variable is always the price of a real property, a set of market attributes is obtained, which in this model are considered to be price-determining. In the second stage, from the collection of real estate which served as a database in the process of estimating model parameters, the selected objects are those which are most similar to the one subject to valuation and form the basis for predicting the final value of the property being valued. Assessing the degree of similarity between real properties can be carried out based on the full spectrum of real estate attributes that potentially affect their value and which it is possible to gather information about, or only on the basis of those attributes which were considered to be price-determining in function modelling. It can also be performed by various methods. This article has examined the effect of various approaches on the final value of the property obtained using the two-stage prediction. In order fulfill the study aim precisely as possible, the results of each calculation step of the algorithm have been investigated in detail. Each of them points to the independence of the two procedures.

  15. Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

    2016-09-06

    Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

  16. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle...

  17. External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

    2016-01-01

    A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, pcase-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

  18. Production loss due to new subclinical mastitis in Dutch dairy cows estimated iwth a test-day model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halasa, T.; Nielen, M.; Roos, de S.; Hoorne, van R.; Jong, de G.; Lam, T.J.G.M.; Werven, van T.; Hogeveen, H.

    2009-01-01

    Milk, fat, and protein loss due to a new subclinical mastitis case may be economically important, and the objective of this study was to estimate this loss. The loss was estimated based on test-day (TD) cow records collected over a 1-yr period from 400 randomly selected Dutch dairy herds. After

  19. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  20. Influence of molecular weight and degree of substitution of various carboxymethyl celluloses on unheated and heated emulsion-type sausage models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibis, Monika; Schuh, Valerie; Allard, Karin; Weiss, Jochen

    2017-03-01

    Four carboxymethyl celluloses (CMCs) differing in molecular weight (M W ) and degree of substitution (°DS) were initially characterized in NaCl solution (0.1 M) and on properties of emulsion-type sausage models. The impact of the different CMCs (0-2 wt%) on the rheological behavior and firmness of an emulsion-type sausage models containing 1.8wt% NaCl was studied. Rheology (unheated/heated) and firmness (heated) showed an increasing effect with increasing CMC concentrations. Addition of>1wt% CMC led to a decrease in storage modulus of the unheated/heated batter and to a decrease in firmness of heated independent of the CMC-type used. CLSM revealed that high amounts of CMCs prevented formation of a coherent protein matrix. Water-binding capacity indicated that CMC contributed to the water-retention capability of sausage batters. Small differences between the CMCs were observed using various °DS and similar M W. Results indicate that the addition of low CMC concentrations (≤0.5wt%) may help to reduce fat content. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A day in the city : using conjoint choice experiments to model urban tourists' choice of activity packages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1995-01-01

    This paper introduces and tests a conjoint choice experiment approach to modeling urban tourists' choice of activity packages. The joint logit model is introduced as a tool to model choices between combinations of activities and an experimental design approach is proposed that includes attributes

  2. Preliminary antiplaque efficacy of aloe vera mouthwash on 4 day plaque re-growth model: randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rajendra Kumar; Gupta, Devanand; Bhaskar, Dara John; Yadav, Ankit; Obaid, Khursheed; Mishra, Sumit

    2014-04-01

    Due to increasing resistance to antibiotics and rising incidence of oral diseases, there is a need for alternative treatment modalities to combat oral diseases. The aim of the present study was to access the effect of Aloe vera mouthwash on the dental plaque in the experimental period of 4 days and to compare it with the bench mark control chlorhexidine and placebo (saline water). A total of 300 systemically healthy subjects were randomly allocated into 3 groups: Aloe vera mouthwash group (n=100), control group (=100)-chlorhexidene group and saline water-Placebo (n=100). To begin with, Gingival index (GI) and plaque index (PI) were recorded. Then, baseline plaque scores were brought to zero by professionally cleaning the teeth with scaling and polishing. After randomization of the participants into three groups they were refrained from regular mechanical oral hygiene measures. Subjects were asked to swish with respective mouthwash (Aloe vera mouthwash, 0.2%chlorhexidine gluconate mouthwash, or normal saline) as per therapeutic dose for 4 days. The results showed that Aloe vera mouthrinse is equally effective in reducing plaque as Chlorhexidine compared to placebo over a period of 4 days. There was a significant reduction on plaque in Aloe vera and chlorhexidine groups and no statistically significant difference was observed among them (p>0.05). Aloe vera mouthwash showed no side effects. The results of the present study indicated that Aloe vera may prove an effective mouthwash due to its ability in reducing dental plaque.

  3. The Effect of Discharge Ratio and Confluence Angle on Local Scouring at 60 Degree Erodible Open Channel with SSIIM1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ghobadian

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Flow and sediment transport has an important role in entrance deformation of open channel junctions. As water moved through a drainage network, it forced to converge at confluence. Due to increasing of water discharge and collision of converging flows, a complex three-dimensional and most highly turbulent location were occurred in the vicinity of the junction. Therefore a deep scour hole and point bar has developed in this area that caused the change in rivers morphology. Despite the large amount of research carried out on flow patterns in river confluences, only a few researches have focused on sediment transport. Materials and methods: In this research three dimensional model (SSIIM1 was used to study of flow pattern and sediment and erosion pattern at 60 degree Junction .the Navier-Stockes equation of turbulent flow in a general three-dimensional geometry are solved to obtain the water velocity: , (1 Where U is average velocity, ρ is density of water, is pressure, the Kronecker delta, which is 1 if i is equal to j and 0 otherwise and general space dimension. The last term is Reynolds stress, often modeled with the following equation: (2 Where and k are eddy viscosity and turbulent kinetic energy respectively. Van Rijn's relations were used to calculate sediment suspended and bed load transport. Dirichlet and zero gradients boundary conditions were used at inflow and outflow boundary respectively. fixed-lid approach was used to computed free surface by using zero gradient for all variables. The wall law for rough boundaries was also used as a boundary condition for bed and wall. In equilibrium situation, The sediment concentration for the cell closet to the bed was specified as the bed boundary condition. Specified value was used for sediment concentration of other boundary conditions at upstream boundary and zero gradients for the water surface, outlet, and the sides. the only simulation of local scouring and sedimentation at

  4. APPLICATION OF MODELLING SYSTEMS IN THE DISCIPLINE «MODERN THEORY OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CONTROL» OF BACHELOR DEGREE FOR THE «COMPUTER SCIENCES» SPECIALTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ERSHOVA N. M.

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Annotation. Purpose of the article. To present the capabilities of the MVTU 3.7 simulation system while the transient processes studying of complex dynamic systems and the appropriateness of its using in the learning process. Methodology of the research. Computer technology and information technologies are the main tools of the modern IT specialist, therefore, the qualitative preparation of students in this field has a great importance in the general system of specialists training and largely determines the material mastering degree at the senior courses. The absence of standard programs libraries for solving the most frequently encountered engineering problems in modern algorithmic programming languages makes the creating software products process for research of complex dynamic systems very difficult. For help come systems of modeling, mathematical base of which is the theory of automatic control. There are unified principles for their creation, which are based on the description of structural schemes, that is the graphical representation of a mathematical model. The MVTU 3.7 simulation system allows you to model transient processes, investigate stability and perform the synthesis of the parameters of the oscillatory processes of various technical devices: mechanical, hydraulic, heat engineering, electrotechnical, etc., including means and automation systems. The restricted version is applicable to technical devices with 15 degrees of freedom. In the MVTU 3.7 simulation system, the main role is assigned to the graphic editor, with its help a simulation scheme is created on the display screen according to the structural scheme of the research system. Block structures are selected from the graphics database using the mouse. The graphical database is located on the display screen next to the working field. After the simulation scheme creating the function block parameters are assigned, the integration method is selected and the integration

  5. Feasibility of a Day-Camp Model of Modified Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy with and without Botulinum Toxin A Injection for Children with Hemiplegia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Ann-Christin; Shaw, Karin; Ponten, Eva; Boyd, Roslyn; Krumlinde-Sundholm, Lena

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the study was to investigate the feasibility of modified constraint-induced (CI) therapy provided in a 2-week day-camp model with and without intramuscular botulinum toxin type A (BoNT-A) injections for children with congenital cerebral palsy. Sixteen children with congenital hemiplegia, Manual Ability Classification System (MACS)…

  6. A single-column model intercomparison on the stratocumulus representation in present-day and future climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dal Gesso, S.; Van der Dussen, J.J.; Siebesma, A.P.; De Roode, S.R.; Boutle, I.A.; Kamae, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Vial, J.

    2015-01-01

    Six Single-Column Model (SCM) versions of climate models are evaluated on the basis of their representation of the dependence of the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer regime on the free tropospheric thermodynamic conditions. The study includes two idealized experiments corresponding to the

  7. Modeling shade tree use by beef cattle as a function of black globe temperature and time of day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foust, Amanda M.; Headlee, William L.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing temperatures associated with global climate change threaten to disrupt agricultural systems such as beef production, yet relatively little is known about the use of natural tree shade to mitigate the negative effects of heat stress on beef cattle. In this study, we evaluated how temperature and time of day influenced the utilization of tree shade in relation to coloration, orientation, and behavior of beef cattle in a pasture system. Temperatures in shade and direct sunlight were measured using black globe temperature (BGT) data loggers. Time-lapse images from game cameras were used to obtain counts of shade usage, coloration, orientation, and behavior of cattle throughout the daytime hours. In general, we found that shade utilization and most of the predominating orientations and behaviors differed significantly ( P effects (Hour × BGTsun) were often nonsignificant. The mean percentage of the herd using shade was highest in mid-morning (87-96%) and early afternoon (97%), but also increased with BGTsun regardless of the time of day; these trends were similar for both dark- and light-colored cattle. Lying down was the dominant behavior exhibited in the shade, while foraging was the most prevalent behavior in the sun. When herd shade usage was lowest in mid- to late-afternoon (<1%) we also observed an increase in the use of heat-mitigating orientations in the sun (37-47%). We discuss some practical implications of these results, including the potential use of temperature thresholds to interpret cattle behaviors and shade usage.

  8. Rotary balance data for a typical single-engine general aviation design for an angle-of-attack range of 8 degrees to 35 degrees, 3. Effect of wing leading-edge modifications, model A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bihrle, W., Jr.; Mulcay, W.

    1979-01-01

    Aerodynamic characteristics obtained in a rotational flow environment utilizing a rotary balance located in the Langley spin tunnel are presented in plotted form for a 1/5 scale, single-engine, low-wing, general aviation airplane model. The configurations tested included the basic airplane, sixteen wing leading-edge modifications and lateral-directional control settings. Data are presented for all configurations without analysis for an angle of attack range of 8 deg to 35 deg and clockwise and counter-clockwise rotations covering an Omega b/2v range from 0 to 0.85. Also, data are presented above 35 deg of attack for some configurations.

  9. MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters 16-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V005

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters product (MCD43B1) contains three-dimensional (3D) data sets providing users...

  10. A Convex Model of Risk-Based Unit Commitment for Day-Ahead Market Clearing Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Ning; Kang, Chongqing; Xia, Qing

    2015-01-01

    The integration of wind power requires the power system to be sufficiently flexible to accommodate its forecast errors. In the market clearing process, the scheduling of flexibility relies on the manner in which the wind power uncertainty is addressed in the unit commitment (UC) model. This paper...... and are considered in both the objective functions and the constraints. The RUC model is shown to be convex and is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem using relaxation and piecewise linearization. The proposed RUC model is tested using a three-bus system and an IEEE RTS79 system...... that the risk modeling facilitates a strategic market clearing procedure with a reasonable computational expense....

  11. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuewen Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

  12. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  13. Return-on-Investment (ROI) Analyses of an Inpatient Lay Health Worker Model on 30-Day Readmission Rates in a Rural Community Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardarelli, Roberto; Bausch, Gregory; Murdock, Joan; Chyatte, Michelle Renee

    2017-07-07

    The purpose of the study was to assess the return-on-investment (ROI) of an inpatient lay health worker (LHW) model in a rural Appalachian community hospital impacting 30-day readmission rates. The Bridges to Home (BTH) study completed an evaluation in 2015 of an inpatient LHW model in a rural Kentucky hospital that demonstrated a reduction in 30-day readmission rates by 47.7% compared to a baseline period. Using the hospital's utilization and financial data, a validated ROI calculator specific to care transition programs was used to assess the ROI of the BTH model comparing 3 types of payment models including Diagnosis Related Group (DRG)-only payments, pay-for-performance (P4P) contracts, and accountable care organizations (ACOs). The BTH program had a -$0.67 ROI if the hospital had only a DRG-based payment model. If the hospital had P4P contracts with payers and 0.1% of its annual operating revenue was at risk, the ROI increased to $7.03 for every $1 spent on the BTH program. However, if the hospital was an ACO as was the case for this study's community hospital, the ROI significantly increased to $38.48 for every $1 spent on the BTH program. The BTH model showed a viable ROI to be considered by community hospitals that are part of an ACO or P4P program. A LHW care transition model may be a cost-effective alternative for impacting excess 30-day readmissions and avoiding associated penalties for hospital systems with a value-based payment model. © 2017 National Rural Health Association.

  14. [Risk Prediction Using Routine Data: Development and Validation of Multivariable Models Predicting 30- and 90-day Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispin, Alexander; Strahwald, Brigitte; Cheney, Catherine; Mansmann, Ulrich

    2018-06-04

    Quality control, benchmarking, and pay for performance (P4P) require valid indicators and statistical models allowing adjustment for differences in risk profiles of the patient populations of the respective institutions. Using hospital remuneration data for measuring quality and modelling patient risks has been criticized by clinicians. Here we explore the potential of prediction models for 30- and 90-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery based on routine data. Full census of a major statutory health insurer. Surgical departments throughout the Federal Republic of Germany. 4283 and 4124 insurants with major surgery for treatment of colorectal cancer during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses as well as tumor locations as recorded in the hospital remuneration data according to §301 SGB V. 30- and 90-day mortality. Elixhauser comorbidities, Charlson conditions, and Charlson scores were generated from the ICD-10 diagnoses. Multivariable prediction models were developed using a penalized logistic regression approach (logistic ridge regression) in a derivation set (patients treated in 2013). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed in an internal validation sample (patients treated in 2014) using calibration curves, Brier scores, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and the areas under the ROC curves (AUC). 30- and 90-day mortality rates in the learning-sample were 5.7 and 8.4%, respectively. The corresponding values in the validation sample were 5.9% and once more 8.4%. Models based on Elixhauser comorbidities exhibited the highest discriminatory power with AUC values of 0.804 (95% CI: 0.776 -0.832) and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.782-0.828) for 30- and 90-day mortality. The Brier scores for these models were 0.050 (95% CI: 0.044-0.056) and 0.067 (95% CI: 0.060-0.074) and similar to the models based on Charlson conditions. Regardless of the model, low predicted probabilities were well calibrated, while

  15. Growth of Listeria monocytogenes and Yersinia enterocolitica colonies under modified atmospheres at 4 and 8 degrees C using a model food system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, W A; Peters, A C; Fielding, L M

    2000-01-01

    The growth of Listeria monocytogenes and Yersinia enterocolitica colonies was studied on solid media at 4 and 8 degrees C under modified atmospheres (MAs) of 5% O2: 10% CO2: 85% N2 (MA1), 30% CO2: 70% N2 (MA2) and air (control). Colony radius, determined using computer image analysis, allowed specific growth rates (mu) and the time taken to detect bacterial colonies to be estimated, after colonies became visible. At 4 degrees C both MAs decreased the growth rates of L. monocytogenes by 1.5- and 3.0-fold under MA1 (mu = 0.02 h(-1)) and MA2 (mu = 0.01 h(-1)), respectively, as compared with the control (mu = 0.03 h(-1)). The time to detection of bacterial colonies was increased from 15 d (control) to 24 (MA1) and 29 d (MA2). At 8 degrees C MA2 decreased the growth rate by 1.5-fold (mu = 0.04 h(-1)) as compared with the control (mu = 0.06 h(-1)) and detection of colonies increased from 7 (control) to 9 d (MA2). At 4 degrees C both MAs decreased the growth rates of Y. enterocolitica by 1.5- and 2.5-fold under MA1 (mu = 0.03 h(-1)) and MA2 (mu = 0.02 h(-1)), respectively, as compared with the control (mu = 0.05 h(-1)). At 8 degrees C identical growth rates were obtained under MA1 and the control (mu = 0.07 h(-1)) whilst a decrease in the growth rate was obtained under MA2 (mu = 0.04 h(-1)). The detection of colonies varied from 6 (8 degrees C, aerobic) to 19 d (4 degrees C, MA2). Refrigerated modified atmosphere packaged foods should be maintained at 4 degrees C and below to ensure product safety.

  16. ALICE Zero Degree Calorimeter

    CERN Multimedia

    De Marco, N

    2013-01-01

    Two identical sets of calorimeters are located on both sides with respect to the beam Interaction Point (IP), 112.5 m away from it. Each set of detectors consists of a neutron (ZN) and a proton (ZP) Zero Degree Calorimeter (ZDC), positioned on remotely controlled platforms. The ZN is placed at zero degree with respect to the LHC beam axis, between the two beam pipes, while the ZP is positioned externally to the outgoing beam pipe. The spectator protons are separated from the ion beams by means of the dipole magnet D1.

  17. Physics to a degree

    CERN Document Server

    Thomas, EG

    2014-01-01

    Physics to a Degree provides an extensive collection of problems suitable for self-study or tutorial and group work at the level of an undergraduate physics course. This novel set of exercises draws together the core elements of an undergraduate physics degree and provides students with the problem solving skills needed for general physics' examinations and for real-life situations encountered by the professional physicist. Topics include force, momentum, gravitation, Bernoulli's Theorem, magnetic fields, blackbody radiation, relativistic travel, mechanics near the speed of light, radioactive

  18. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from mown-grass and grain-cropping systems: Testing and sensitivity analysis of DailyDayCent using high frequency measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senapati, Nimai; Chabbi, Abad; Giostri, André Faé; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B; Smith, Pete

    2016-12-01

    The DailyDayCent biogeochemical model was used to simulate nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from two contrasting agro-ecosystems viz. a mown-grassland and a grain-cropping system in France. Model performance was tested using high frequency measurements over three years; additionally a local sensitivity analysis was performed. Annual N 2 O emissions of 1.97 and 1.24kgNha -1 year -1 were simulated from mown-grassland and grain-cropland, respectively. Measured and simulated water filled pore space (r=0.86, ME=-2.5%) and soil temperature (r=0.96, ME=-0.63°C) at 10cm soil depth matched well in mown-grassland. The model predicted cumulative hay and crop production effectively. The model simulated soil mineral nitrogen (N) concentrations, particularly ammonium (NH 4 + ), reasonably, but the model significantly underestimated soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentration under both systems. In general, the model effectively simulated the dynamics and the magnitude of daily N 2 O flux over the whole experimental period in grain-cropland (r=0.16, ME=-0.81gNha -1 day -1 ), with reasonable agreement between measured and modelled N 2 O fluxes for the mown-grassland (r=0.63, ME=-0.65gNha -1 day -1 ). Our results indicate that DailyDayCent has potential for use as a tool for predicting overall N 2 O emissions in the study region. However, in-depth analysis shows some systematic discrepancies between measured and simulated N 2 O fluxes on a daily basis. The current exercise suggests that the DailyDayCent may need improvement, particularly the sub-module responsible for N transformations, for better simulating soil mineral N, especially soil NO 3 - concentration, and N 2 O flux on a daily basis. The sensitivity analysis shows that many factors such as climate change, N-fertilizer use, input uncertainty and parameter value could influence the simulation of N 2 O emissions. Sensitivity estimation also helped to identify critical parameters, which need careful estimation or site

  19. String description of quarks degrees of freedom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hadasz, L.

    1994-01-01

    This work presents a simple way of incorporating quark degrees of freedom (spin, charge and colour) into the classical string model. We introduce the model and derive from it the classical equations of motion. (author)

  20. String description of quarks degrees of freedom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadasz, L. [Jagiellonian Univ., Inst. of Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1994-10-01

    This work presents a simple way of incorporating quark degrees of freedom (spin, charge and colour) into the classical string model. We introduce the model and derive from it the classical equations of motion. (author). 7 refs.

  1. The women day storm

    OpenAIRE

    Parnowski, Aleksei; Polonska, Anna; Semeniv, Oleg

    2012-01-01

    On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.

  2. Epilogue: degrees of transparency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengeveld, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this epilogue the results of the analyses of four different languages in the preceding papers are compared. It is shown that the degrees of transparency of these languages can be represented on an implicational scale, and that the features themselves can be ranked on a transparency scale as well.

  3. Registered Nurse (Associate Degree).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This document, which is designed for use in developing a tech prep competency profile for the occupation of registered nurse (with an associate degree), lists technical competencies and competency builders for 19 units pertinent to the health technologies cluster in general and 5 units specific to the occupation of registered nurse. The following…

  4. Application of a coupled ecosystem-chemical equilibrium model, DayCent-Chem, to stream and soil chemistry in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, M.D.; Baron, Jill S.; Ojima, D.S.

    2007-01-01

    Atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species have the potential to acidify terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, but nitrate and ammonium are also critical nutrients for plant and microbial productivity. Both the ecological response and the hydrochemical response to atmospheric deposition are of interest to regulatory and land management agencies. We developed a non-spatial biogeochemical model to simulate soil and surface water chemistry by linking the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DayCent) with a low temperature aqueous geochemical model, PHREEQC. The coupled model, DayCent-Chem, simulates the daily dynamics of plant production, soil organic matter, cation exchange, mineral weathering, elution, stream discharge, and solute concentrations in soil water and stream flow. By aerially weighting the contributions of separate bedrock/talus and tundra simulations, the model was able to replicate the measured seasonal and annual stream chemistry for most solutes for Andrews Creek in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park. Simulated soil chemistry, net primary production, live biomass, and soil organic matter for forest and tundra matched well with measurements. This model is appropriate for accurately describing ecosystem and surface water chemical response to atmospheric deposition and climate change. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Present Day and Future Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2017-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. An energy balance container model termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM) solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available meteorological data. Output from WHATCH'EM is used to estimate development parameters for the immature life stages of the Ae. aegypti mosquito, allowing for assessment of habitat suitability across varying natural environments. Variability amongst different artificial containers (e.g., size, color, material, shape), shading scenarios, and water availability scenarios is also addressed. WHATCH'EM is also coupled with an Ae. aegypti life cycle model to include the effects of the aforementioned factors on survival. Projections of future climate scenarios that take into account changes not only in temperature but also precipitation, humidity, and radiative effects are used in WHATCH'EM to estimate how Ae. aegypti population dynamics may change.

  6. Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Alder

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a new, non-flux corrected AOGCM, GENMOM, that combines the GENESIS version 3 atmospheric GCM (Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems and MOM2 (Modular Ocean Model version 2 nominally at T31 resolution. We evaluate GENMOM by comparison with reanalysis products (e.g., NCEP2 and three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semi-permanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures reasonably well the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM simulations include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-than-observed overturning circulation.

  7. Soil mapping and modelling for evaluation of the effects of historical and present-day soil erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetanova, Anna; Szwarczewski, Piotr

    2016-04-01

    The loess hilly lands in Danube Lowland are characterized by patchy soil-scape. The soil erosion processes uncover the subsurface, bright loess horizon, while non-eroded and colluvial soils are of the dark colour, in the chernozem area. With the modernisation of agriculture since the 1950's and in the process of collectivization, when small fields were merged into bigger, the soil degradation progressed. However, the analysis of historical sources and sediment archives showed the proofs of historical soil erosion. The objective of this study is to map the soil erosion patterns in connection of both pre- and post-collectivization landscape and to understand the accordingly developed soil erosion patterns. The combined methods of soil mapping and soil erosion modelling were applied in the part of the Trnavska pahorkatina Hilly Land in Danube Lowland. The detailed soil mapping in a zero-order catchment (0.28 km²) uncovered the removal of surface soil horizon of 0.6m or more, while the colluvial soils were about 1.1m deep. The soil properties and dating helped to describe the original soil profile in the valley bottom, and reconstruct the history of soil erosion in the catchment. The soil erosion model was applied using the reconstructed land use patterns in order to understand the effect of recent and historical soil erosion in the lowland landscape. This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract ESF-EC-0006-07 and APVV-0625-11; Anna Smetanová has received the support of the AgreenSkills fellowship (under grant agreement n°267196).

  8. Uso de esteroides sistémicos en quemaduras de segundo grado en modelo animal Systemic steroid use in second degree burns in an animal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ramos-Gallardo

    2012-06-01

    rats were sacrificed at 14th day. We evaluated the presence of clinical signs of infection and the percentage of new epithelium. In the microscope we evaluated the following parameters: fibrosis, inflammatory process, presence of fibroblast and vascular proliferation. We compared both groups using Chi² test (SPSS program version 10. A p =/<. 05 was considered as statistical significant. We found no difference between each group in fibrosis (p .47, inflammatory process (p .27, or fibroblast presence (p.16. But there was a difference in vascular proliferation (p .05 against the first group (steroid group. There were no signs of infection and all of them were epithelised at the 14th day. In conclusion, the use of steroids in burns in an animal model could have a final effect in wound healing. In humans it is important to say that they can be helpful in those cases with clear evidence of benefit, as for example failure to vassopresor response in septic shock. We are not sure about the final effect in wound healing in the steroid group as for example wound contracture in long term.

  9. A reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model as a software sensor for rapid estimation of five-day biochemical oxygen demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin

    2013-07-01

    The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.

  10. Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H.-Y.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Bazile, E.; Berg, L. K.; Cheng, A.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Lee, W.-S.; Liu, Y.; Mellul, L.; Merryfield, W. J.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.; Xie, S.; Xu, K.-M.; Zhang, C.; Klein, S.; Petch, J.

    2018-03-01

    We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

  11. Application of single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction with a multiple-lactation random regression test-day model for Japanese Holsteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Toshimi; Gotoh, Yusaku; Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Satoshi; Abe, Hayato; Masuda, Yutaka; Kawahara, Takayoshi

    2017-08-01

    This study aimed to evaluate a validation reliability of single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) with a multiple-lactation random regression test-day model and investigate an effect of adding genotyped cows on the reliability. Two data sets for test-day records from the first three lactations were used: full data from February 1975 to December 2015 (60 850 534 records from 2 853 810 cows) and reduced data cut off in 2011 (53 091 066 records from 2 502 307 cows). We used marker genotypes of 4480 bulls and 608 cows. Genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBV) of 305-day milk yield in all the lactations were estimated for at least 535 young bulls using two marker data sets: bull genotypes only and both bulls and cows genotypes. The realized reliability (R 2 ) from linear regression analysis was used as an indicator of validation reliability. Using only genotyped bulls, R 2 was ranged from 0.41 to 0.46 and it was always higher than parent averages. The very similar R 2 were observed when genotyped cows were added. An application of ssGBLUP to a multiple-lactation random regression model is feasible and adding a limited number of genotyped cows has no significant effect on reliability of GEBV for genotyped bulls. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  12. Simultaneous stability and sensitivity in model cortical networks is achieved through anti-correlations between the in- and out-degree of connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Vasquez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Neuronal networks in rodent barrel cortex are characterized by stable low baseline firing rates. However, they are sensitive to the action potentials of single neurons as suggested by recent single-cell stimulation experiments that report quantifiable behavioral responses in response to short spike trains elicited in single neurons. Hence, these networks are stable against internally generated fluctuations in firing rate but at the same time remain sensitive to similarly-sized externally induced perturbations. We investigated stability and sensitivity in a simple recurrent network of stochastic binary neurons and determined numerically the effects of correlation between the number of afferent (‘in-degree’ and efferent (‘out-degree’ connections in neurons. The key advance reported in this work is that anti-correlation between in-/out-degree distributions increased the stability of the network in comparison to networks with no correlation or positive correlations, while being able to achieve the same level of sensitivity. The experimental characterization of degree distributions is difficult because all presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons have to be identified and counted. We explored whether the statistics of network motifs, which requires the characterization of connections between small subsets of neurons, could be used to detect evidence for degree anti-correlations. We find that the sample frequency of the 3-neuron ‘ring’ motif (1→2→3→1, can be used to detect degree anti-correlation for sub-networks of size 30 using about 50 samples, which is of significance because the necessary measurements are achievable experimentally in the near future.Taken together, we hypothesize that barrel cortex networks exhibit degree anti-correlations and specific network motif statistics.

  13. When Every Day Is Professional Development Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tienken, Christopher H.; Stonaker, Lew

    2007-01-01

    In the Monroe Township (New Jersey) Public Schools, teachers' learning occurs daily, not just on one day in October and February. Central office and school-level administrators foster job-embedded teacher growth. Every day is a professional development day in the district, but that has not always been so. How did the district become a system with…

  14. Risk Factors and Predictive Model Development of Thirty-Day Post-Operative Surgical Site Infection in the Veterans Administration Surgical Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinli; Nylander, William; Smith, Tracy; Han, Soonhee; Gunnar, William

    2018-04-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) complicates approximately 2% of surgeries in the Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. Surgical site infections are responsible for increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, cost, and mortality. Surgical site infection can be minimized by modifying risk factors. In this study, we identified risk factors and developed accurate predictive surgical specialty-specific SSI risk prediction models for the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) surgery population. In a retrospective observation study, surgical patients who underwent surgery from October 2013 to September 2016 from 136 VA hospitals were included. The Veteran Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database was used for the pre-operative demographic and clinical characteristics, intra-operative characteristics, and 30-day post-operative outcomes. The study population represents 11 surgical specialties: neurosurgery, urology, podiatry, otolaryngology, general, orthopedic, plastic, thoracic, vascular, cardiac coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and cardiac valve/other surgery. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for the 30-day post-operative SSIs. Among 354,528 surgical procedures, 6,538 (1.8%) had SSIs within 30 days. Surgical site infection rates varied among surgical specialty (0.7%-3.0%). Surgical site infection rates were higher in emergency procedures, procedures with long operative duration, greater complexity, and higher relative value units. Other factors associated with increased SSI risk were high level of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (level 4 and 5), dyspnea, open wound/infection, wound classification, ascites, bleeding disorder, chemotherapy, smoking, history of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), radiotherapy, steroid use for chronic conditions, and weight loss. Each surgical specialty had a distinct combination of risk factors. Accurate SSI risk-predictive surgery specialty

  15. Transitioning from a noon conference to an academic half-day curriculum model: effect on medical knowledge acquisition and learning satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Duc; Faulx, Michael; Isada, Carlos; Kattan, Michael; Yu, Changhong; Olender, Jeff; Nielsen, Craig; Brateanu, Andrei

    2014-03-01

    The academic half-day (AHD) curriculum is an alternative to the traditional noon conference in graduate medical education, yet little is known regarding its effect on knowledge acquisition and resident satisfaction. We investigated the association between the 2 approaches for delivering the curriculum and knowledge acquisition, as reflected by the Internal Medicine In-Training Examination (IM-ITE) scores and assessed resident learning satisfaction under both curricula. The Cleveland Clinic Internal Medicine Residency Program transitioned from the noon conference to the AHD curriculum in 2011. Covariates for residents enrolled from 2004 to 2011 were age; sex; type of medical degree; United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1, 2 Clinical Knowledge; and IM-ITE-1 scores. We performed univariable and multivariable linear regressions to investigate the association between covariates and IM-ITE-2 and IM-ITE-3 scores. Residents also were surveyed about their learning satisfaction in both curricula. Of 364 residents, 112 (31%) and 252 (69%) were exposed to the AHD and the noon conference curriculum, respectively. In multivariable analyses, the AHD curriculum was associated with higher IM-ITE-3 (regression coefficient, 4.8; 95% confidence interval 2.9-6.6) scores, and residents in the AHD curriculum had greater learning satisfaction compared with the noon conference cohort (Likert, 3.4 versus 3.0; P  =  .003). The AHD curriculum was associated with improvement in resident medical knowledge acquisition and increased learner satisfaction.

  16. Degree-based graph construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyunju; Toroczkai, Zoltan; Erdos, Peter L; Miklos, Istvan; Szekely, Laszlo A

    2009-01-01

    Degree-based graph construction is a ubiquitous problem in network modelling (Newman et al 2006 The Structure and Dynamics of Networks (Princeton Studies in Complexity) (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press), Boccaletti et al 2006 Phys. Rep. 424 175), ranging from social sciences to chemical compounds and biochemical reaction networks in the cell. This problem includes existence, enumeration, exhaustive construction and sampling questions with aspects that are still open today. Here we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a sequence of nonnegative integers to be realized as a simple graph's degree sequence, such that a given (but otherwise arbitrary) set of connections from an arbitrarily given node is avoided. We then use this result to present a swap-free algorithm that builds all simple graphs realizing a given degree sequence. In a wider context, we show that our result provides a greedy construction method to build all the f-factor subgraphs (Tutte 1952 Can. J. Math. 4 314) embedded within K n setmn S k , where K n is the complete graph and S k is a star graph centred on one of the nodes. (fast track communication)

  17. Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, Drew; Berntsen, T.; Bisiauxs, M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; McConnell, J.R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-03-05

    As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

  18. Modeling interacting dynamic networks: II. Systematic study of the statistical properties of cross-links between two networks with preferred degrees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2014-01-01

    In a recent work (Liu et al, 2013 J. Stat. Mech. P08001), we introduced dynamic networks with preferred degrees and presented simulation and analytic studies of a single, homogeneous system as well as two interacting networks. Here, we extend these studies to a wider range of parameter space, in a more systematic fashion. Though the interaction we introduced seems simple and intuitive, it produced dramatically different behavior in the single- and two-network systems. Specifically, partitioning the single network into two identical sectors, we find the cross-link distribution to be a sharply peaked Gaussian. In stark contrast, we find a very broad and flat plateau in the case of two interacting identical networks. A sound understanding of this phenomenon remains elusive. Exploring more asymmetric interacting networks, we discover a kind of ‘universal behavior’ for systems in which the ‘introverts’ (nodes with smaller preferred degree) are far outnumbered. Remarkably, an approximation scheme for their degree distribution can be formulated, leading to very successful predictions. (paper)

  19. When Graduate Degrees Prostitute the Educational Process: Degrees Gone Wild

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumadue, Richard T.

    2006-01-01

    Graduate degrees prostitute the educational process when they are sold to consumers by unaccredited degree/diploma mills as being equivalent to legitimate, bona-fide degrees awarded by accredited graduate schools. This article carefully analyzes the serious problems of bogus degrees and their association with the religious higher education…

  20. Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

    2014-01-01

    Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

  1. Degrees of democraticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Bergström

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available People have tended to load their different conceptions of democracy with their own political ideals; in this paper it is argued that normative and definitional questions should rather be separated, so that political philosophers and political scientists may adopt the same concept of democracy, even if they disagree normatively or politically. Moreover, it is argued that we should replace an absolute notion of democracy by a relativized notion, which allows for different degrees of democraticity. This facilitates the separation of normative and conceptual issues and it is convenient in contexts in which “democratic deficits” are discussed – as e.g. when democracy is to be implemented on a supranational level. Moreover, it has the consequence that democratic deficits are not necessarily bad. DOWNLOAD THIS PAPER FROM SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1837342

  2. Subnucleon freedom degrees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frois, B.

    1985-03-01

    The nucleon is nothing but the fundamental state of a complex object, the Baryon. It has a great number of excited states which are significative of its quark structure. The aim of nuclear physics today is to understand the interaction dynamics in nuclei of particles whose existence is known by high energy physics. This lecture aims at defining the frontier of current comprehension in this field by some examples. First quarks and gluons are presented. Proofs of existence of pinpoint particles inside the nucleus are given. Then a direct proof of the concept validity of the nucleon orbit in the nucleus is given. Mesonic freedom degrees are also studied. Some experience examples in which meson exchange exist clearly are shown. At last, the role of subnucleonic effects in the nuclear reactions is shown [fr

  3. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan

  4. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; hide

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores

  5. D:L-Amino Acid Modeling Reveals Fast Microbial Turnover of Days to Months in the Subsurface Hydrothermal Sediment of Guaymas Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Mikkel H; Glombitza, Clemens; Lever, Mark A; Deng, Longhui; Morono, Yuki; Inagaki, Fumio; Doll, Mechthild; Su, Chin-Chia; Lomstein, Bente A

    2018-01-01

    We investigated the impact of temperature on the microbial turnover of organic matter (OM) in a hydrothermal vent system in Guaymas Basin, by calculating microbial bio- and necromass turnover times based on the culture-independent D:L-amino acid model. Sediments were recovered from two stations near hydrothermal mounds (community of microorganisms in the hydrothermal sediment demonstrated short turnover times. The modeled turnover times of microbial bio- and necromass in the hydrothermal sediments were notably faster (biomass: days to months; necromass: up to a few hundred years) than in the cold sediments (biomass: tens of years; necromass: thousands of years), suggesting that temperature has a significant influence on the microbial turnover rates. We suggest that short biomass turnover times are necessary for maintance of essential cell funtions and to overcome potential damage caused by the increased temperature.The reduced OM quality at the hyrothemal sites might thus only allow for a small population size of microorganisms.

  6. Key Brainstem Structures Activated during Hypoxic Exposure in One-day-old Mice Highlight Characteristics for Modeling Breathing Network in Premature Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joubert, Fanny; Loiseau, Camille; Perrin-Terrin, Anne-Sophie; Cayetanot, Florence; Frugière, Alain; Voituron, Nicolas; Bodineau, Laurence

    2016-01-01

    We mapped and characterized changes in the activity of brainstem cell groups under hypoxia in one-day-old newborn mice, an animal model in which the central nervous system at birth is particularly immature. The classical biphasic respiratory response characterized by transient hyperventilation, followed by severe ventilation decline, was associated with increased c-FOS immunoreactivity in brainstem cell groups: the nucleus of the solitary tract, ventral reticular nucleus of the medulla, retrotrapezoid/parafacial region, parapyramidal group, raphe magnus nucleus, lateral, and medial parabrachial nucleus, and dorsal subcoeruleus nucleus. In contrast, the hypoglossal nucleus displayed decreased c-FOS immunoreactivity. There were fewer or no activated catecholaminergic cells activated in the medulla oblongata, whereas ~45% of the c-FOS-positive cells in the dorsal subcoeruleus were co-labeled. Approximately 30% of the c-FOS-positive cells in the parapyramidal group were serotoninergic, whereas only a small portion were labeled for serotonin in the raphe magnus nucleus. None of the c-FOS-positive cells in the retrotrapezoid/parafacial region were co-labeled for PHOX2B. Thus, the hypoxia-activated brainstem neuronal network of one-day-old mice is characterized by (i) the activation of catecholaminergic cells of the dorsal subcoeruleus nucleus, a structure implicated in the strong depressive pontine influence previously reported in the fetus but not in newborns, (ii) the weak activation of catecholaminergic cells of the ventral reticular nucleus of the medulla, an area involved in hypoxic hyperventilation, and (iii) the absence of PHOX2B-positive cells activated in the retrotrapezoid/parafacial region. Based on these results, one-day-old mice could highlight characteristics for modeling the breathing network of premature infants. PMID:28018238

  7. Key brainstem structures activated during hypoxic exposure in one-day-old mice highlight characteristics for modelling breathing network in premature infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanny JOUBERT

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We mapped and characterized changes in the activity of brainstem cell groups under hypoxia in one-day-old newborn mice, an animal model in which the central nervous system at birth is particularly immature. The classical biphasic respiratory response characterized by transient hyperventilation, followed by severe ventilation decline, was associated with increased c-FOS immunoreactivity in brainstem cell groups: the nucleus of the solitary tract, ventral reticular nucleus of the medulla, retrotrapezoid/parafacial region, parapyramidal group, raphe magnus nucleus, lateral and medial parabrachial nucleus, and dorsal subcoeruleus nucleus. In contrast, the hypoglossal nucleus displayed decreased c-FOS immunoreactivity. There were fewer or no activated catecholaminergic cells activated in the medulla oblongata, whereas approximately 45% of the c-FOS-positive cells in the dorsal subcoeruleus were co-labelled. Approximately 30% of the c-FOS-positive cells in the parapyramidal group were serotoninergic, whereas only a small portion were labelled for serotonin in the raphe magnus nucleus. None of the c-FOS-positive cells in the retrotrapezoid/parafacial region were co-labelled for PHOX2B. Thus, the hypoxia-activated brainstem neuronal network of one-day-old mice is characterized by i the activation of catecholaminergic cells of the dorsal subcoeruleus nucleus, a structure implicated in the strong depressive pontine influence previously reported in the fetus but not in newborns, ii the weak activation of catecholaminergic cells of the ventral reticular nucleus of the medulla, an area involved in hypoxic hyperventilation, and iii the absence of PHOX2B-positive cells activated in the retrotrapezoid/parafacial region. Based on these results, one-day-old mice could highlight characteristics for modelling the breathing network of premature infants.

  8. AAS 228: Day 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    began the session by explaining his new models which trace the diffusive cooling of an initial supernova shock. His team has created an open source code, the SuperNova Explosion Code or SNEC, to allow others to explore a variety of explosion properties.Janie De La Rosa then spoke about her work on observing Type IIn supernovae (those with narrow emission lines in their spectra) at ultraviolet and optical wavelengths. These wavelengths are sensitive to progenitor models and the geometry of the surrounding material.Composite image of the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A, using data from the Chandra X-ray telescope, NASAs Spitzer Space Telescope, and ground-based facilities. [NASA/CXC/SAO]Following the exploration of progenitor geometry, Douglas C. Leonard spoke about his work in hunting for polarization in type IIP supernovae (those with long, plateaued light curves). A high degree of polarization implies asymmetry in the explosion itself, and he has been able to find such asymmetry in a number of type IIP supernovae. He pointed out that bubble-like structure (like what we see in the beautiful supernova remnant Cassiopeia A) might explain the polarization as well. Switching gears, Karri Kolijonen spoke about an interesting X-ray binary (a binary consistent of a compact object and star that emits strongly in X-rays) known as GS 1354-64. This pair has an extremely short orbital period of just two and a half days! He explained how an instability in the black holes accretion disk might explain a recent outburst in the system.Thomas Pannuti explained the basic morphologies of supernova remnants: shell, composite, and mixed. He has taken extensive, multiwavelength images of a mixed remnant known as W28 from radio through X-ray wavelengths. He notes that the radio masers in the remnant are offset from the X-ray light, although the significance of this is still an open question.Finally, Maria Dainotti wrapped up the session with a discussion of long duration GRBs as standard

  9. Hard-hat day

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    CERN will be organizing a special information day on Friday, 27th June, designed to promote the wearing of hard hats and ensure that they are worn correctly. A new prevention campaign will also be launched.The event will take place in the hall of the Main Building from 11.30 a.m. to 2.00 p.m., when you will be able to come and try on various models of hard hat, including some of the very latest innovative designs, ask questions and pass on any comments and suggestions.

  10. Using a thermal-based two source energy balance model with time-differencing to estimate surface energy fluxes with day-night MODIS observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzinski, R.; Anderson, M. C.; Kustas, W. P.; Nieto, H.; Sandholt, I.

    2013-07-01

    The Dual Temperature Difference (DTD) model, introduced by Norman et al. (2000), uses a two source energy balance modelling scheme driven by remotely sensed observations of diurnal changes in land surface temperature (LST) to estimate surface energy fluxes. By using a time-differential temperature measurement as input, the approach reduces model sensitivity to errors in absolute temperature retrieval. The original formulation of the DTD required an early morning LST observation (approximately 1 h after sunrise) when surface fluxes are minimal, limiting application to data provided by geostationary satellites at sub-hourly temporal resolution. The DTD model has been applied primarily during the active growth phase of agricultural crops and rangeland vegetation grasses, and has not been rigorously evaluated during senescence or in forested ecosystems. In this paper we present modifications to the DTD model that enable applications using thermal observations from polar orbiting satellites, such as Terra and Aqua, with day and night overpass times over the area of interest. This allows the application of the DTD model in high latitude regions where large viewing angles preclude the use of geostationary satellites, and also exploits the higher spatial resolution provided by polar orbiting satellites. A method for estimating nocturnal surface fluxes and a scheme for estimating the fraction of green vegetation are developed and evaluated. Modification for green vegetation fraction leads to significantly improved estimation of the heat fluxes from the vegetation canopy during senescence and in forests. When the modified DTD model is run with LST measurements acquired with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, generally satisfactory agreement with field measurements is obtained for a number of ecosystems in Denmark and the United States. Finally, regional maps of energy fluxes are produced for the Danish

  11. Comparison of two-stage thermophilic (68 degrees C/55 degrees C) anaerobic digestion with one-stage thermophilic (55 degrees C) digestion of cattle manure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, H B; Mladenovska, Z; Westermann, P; Ahring, B K

    2004-05-05

    A two-stage 68 degrees C/55 degrees C anaerobic degradation process for treatment of cattle manure was studied. In batch experiments, an increase of the specific methane yield, ranging from 24% to 56%, was obtained when cattle manure and its fractions (fibers and liquid) were pretreated at 68 degrees C for periods of 36, 108, and 168 h, and subsequently digested at 55 degrees C. In a lab-scale experiment, the performance of a two-stage reactor system, consisting of a digester operating at 68 degrees C with a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 3 days, connected to a 55 degrees C reactor with 12-day HRT, was compared with a conventional single-stage reactor running at 55 degrees C with 15-days HRT. When an organic loading of 3 g volatile solids (VS) per liter per day was applied, the two-stage setup had a 6% to 8% higher specific methane yield and a 9% more effective VS-removal than the conventional single-stage reactor. The 68 degrees C reactor generated 7% to 9% of the total amount of methane of the two-stage system and maintained a volatile fatty acids (VFA) concentration of 4.0 to 4.4 g acetate per liter. Population size and activity of aceticlastic methanogens, syntrophic bacteria, and hydrolytic/fermentative bacteria were significantly lower in the 68 degrees C reactor than in the 55 degrees C reactors. The density levels of methanogens utilizing H2/CO2 or formate were, however, in the same range for all reactors, although the degradation of these substrates was significantly lower in the 68 degrees C reactor than in the 55 degrees C reactors. Temporal temperature gradient electrophoresis profiles (TTGE) of the 68 degrees C reactor demonstrated a stable bacterial community along with a less divergent community of archaeal species. Copyright 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Data assimilation of a ten-day period during June 1993 over the Southern Great Plains Site using a nested mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, J.; Guo, Y.R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been to obtain a complete representation of physical processes on the scale of a general circulation model (GCM) grid box in order to better parameterize radiative processes in these models. Since an observational network of practical size cannot be used alone to characterize the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site`s 3D structure and time development, data assimilation using the enhanced observations together with a mesoscale model is used to give a full 4D analysis at high resolution. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been applied over a ten-day continuous period in a triple-nested mode with grid sizes of 60, 20 and 6.67 in. The outer domain covers the United States` 48 contiguous states; the innermost is a 480-km square centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. A simulation has been run with data assimilation using the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) 60-km analyses from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The nested domains take boundary conditions from and feed back continually to their parent meshes (i.e., they are two-way interactive). As reported last year, this provided a simulation of the basic features of mesoscale events over the CART site during the period 16-26 June 1993 when an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) was under way.

  13. Degree-degree correlations in random graphs with heavy-tailed degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstad, van der R.W.; Litvak, N.

    2014-01-01

    Mixing patterns in large self-organizing networks, such as the Internet, the World Wide Web, social, and biological networks are often characterized by degree-degree dependencies between neighboring nodes. In assortative networks, the degree-degree dependencies are positive (nodes with similar

  14. Degree-Degree Dependencies in Random Graphs with Heavy-Tailed Degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hofstad, Remco; Litvak, Nelly

    2014-01-01

    Mixing patterns in large self-organizing networks, such as the Internet, the World Wide Web, social, and biological networks are often characterized by degree-degree dependencies between neighboring nodes. In assortative networks, the degree-degree dependencies are positive (nodes with similar

  15. Between Anzac Day and Waitangi Day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Czerwińska Anna

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the historical background and significance of the two most important national holidays in New Zealand: Waitangi Day and Anzac Day. Waitangi Day is celebrated on the 6th February and it commemorates the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi between British representatives and a number of Māori chiefs in 1840. Following the signing of the treaty New Zealand became effectively a British colony. Anzac Day is celebrated on 25th April, i.e., on the anniversary of the landing of soldiers of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC on the Gallipoli peninsula in Turkey in 1915, during World War One. There are three major differences between these two holidays: the process of those days becoming national holidays, the level of contestation, and the changing messages they have carried. The present study analyzes the national discourse around Anzac Day and Waitangi Day in New Zealand, and attempts to reveal how the official New Zealand government rhetoric about national unity becomes deconstructed. The following analysis is based on a selection of online articles from the New Zealand Herald and Stuff published in Auckland and Wellington, respectively. Both cities are populated by multi-ethnic groups, with Auckland featuring the largest Māori population.

  16. Analysis of variability in multi-day GPS imputed activity-travel diaries using multi-dimensional sequence alignment and panel effects regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xianyu, J.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    The use of GPS devices and smartphones has made feasible the collection of multi-day activity-travel diaries. In turn, the availability of multi-day travel diary data opens up new avenues for analyzing dynamics of individual travel behavior. This paper addresses the issue of day-to-day variability

  17. A real case simulation of the air-borne effluent dispersion on a typical summer day under CDA scenario for PFBR using an advanced meteorological and dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, C.V; Venkatesan, R.; Bagavath Singh, A.; Somayaji, K.M.

    2003-11-01

    Environmental concentrations and radioactive doses within and beyond the site boundary for the CDA situation of PFBR have been estimated using an Advanced Radiological Impact Prediction system for a real atmospheric situation on a typical summer day in the month of May 2003. The system consists of a meso-scale atmospheric prognostic model MM5 coupled with a random walk Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART for the simulation of transport, diffusion and deposition of radio nuclides. The details of the modeling system, its capabilities and various features are presented. The model has been validated for the simulated coastal atmospheric features of land-sea breeze, development of TIBL etc., with site and regional meteorological observations from IMD. Analysis of the dose distribution in a situation that corresponds to the atmospheric conditions on the chosen day shows that the doses for CDA through different pathways are 8 times less than the earlier estimations made according to regulatory requirements using the Gaussian Plume Model (GPM) approach. However for stack releases a higher dose than was reported earlier occurred beyond the site boundary at 2-4 km range under stable and fumigation conditions. The doses due to stack releases under these conditions maintained almost the same value in 3 to 10 km range and decreased there after. Deposition velocities computed from radionuclide species, wind speed, surface properties were 2 orders lower than the values used earlier and hence gave more realistic estimates of ground deposited activity. The study has enabled to simulate the more complex meteorological situation that actually is present at the site of interest and the associated spatial distribution of radiological impact around Kalpakkam. In order to draw meaningful conclusion that can be compared with regulatory estimates future study would be undertaken to simulate the dispersion under extreme meteorological situations which could possibly be worse than

  18. Evaluation and adjustment of description of denitrification in the DailyDayCent and COUP models based on N2 and N2O laboratory incubation system measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosz, Balázs; Well, Reinhard; Dannenmann, Michael; Dechow, René; Kitzler, Barbara; Michel, Kerstin; Reent Köster, Jan

    2017-04-01

    data-sets are needed in view of the extreme spatio-temporal heterogeneity of denitrification. DASIM will provide such data based on laboratory incubations including measurement of N2O and N2 fluxes and determination of the relevant drivers. Here, we present how we will use these data to evaluate common biogeochemical process models (DailyDayCent, Coup) with respect to modeled NO, N2O and N2 fluxes from denitrification. The models are used with different settings. The first approximation is the basic "factory" setting of the models. The next step would show the precision in the results of the modeling after adjusting the appropriate parameters from the result of the measurement values and the "factory" results. The better adjustment and the well-controlled input and output measured parameters could provide a better understanding of the probable scantiness of the tested models which will be a basis for future model improvement.

  19. CGH Supports World Cancer Day Every Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    We celebrate World Cancer Day every year on February 4th. This year the theme “We can. I can.” invites us to think not only about how we can work with one another to reduce the global burden of cancer, but how we as individuals can make a difference. Every day the staff at CGH work to establish and build upon programs that are aimed at improving the lives of people affected by cancer.

  20. The drug efficacy and adverse reactions in a mouse model of oral squamous cell carcinoma treated with oxaliplatin at different time points during a day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang K

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Kai Yang,1,2 Ningbo Zhao,1 Dan Zhao,1,2 Dan Chen,1 Yadong Li1 1Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 2Chongqing Key Laboratory for Oral Diseases and Biomedical Sciences, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China Background: Recent studies have shown that the growth and proliferation of cancer cells in vivo exhibit circadian rhythm, and the efficacy and adverse reactions of platinum-based anticancer drugs administered at different times of the day vary significantly on colon cancer. However, since the circadian rhythms of growth and proliferation of various cancer cells often differ, the question of whether the administration of platinum anticancer drugs at different times of the day exerts significantly different efficacy and adverse effects on oral cancers remains to be elucidated. This study has compared the efficacy and adverse effects of oxaliplatin (L-OHP administration at different times during a day on oral squamous cell carcinoma in mice and has analyzed cellular circadian rhythms. Methods: The mouse model for oral squamous cell carcinoma was established in 75 nude mice, housed in a 12 hour light/12 hour dark cycle environment. The mice were randomly divided into five groups; four experimental groups were intravenously injected with L-OHP at four time points within a 24-hour period (4, 10, 16, and 22 hours after lights on [HALO]. The control group was intravenously injected with the same volume of saline. Treatment efficacy and adverse reactions were compared on the seventh day after the injection, at 22 HALO. The existence of circadian rhythms was determined by cosine analysis. Results: Only injections of L-OHP at 16 and 22 HALO significantly prolonged animal survival time. The adverse reactions in mice injected with L-OHP at 16 and 22 HALO were significantly less than those observed in mice administered L-OHP at 4 and 10 HALO

  1. Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckland, Steeves; Cole, Nik C; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Gallagher, Laura E; Henshaw, Sion M; Besnard, Aurélien; Tucker, Rachel M; Bachraz, Vishnu; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Harris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

  2. Calculating the 30-day survival rate in acute myocardial infarction: should we use the treatment chain or the hospital catchment model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Norum

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI is a potentially deadly disease and significant efforts have been concentrated on improving hospital performance. A 30-day survival rate has become a key quality of care indicator. In Northern Norway, some patients undergoing AMI are directly transferred to the Regional Cardiac Intervention Center at the University Hospital of North Norway in Tromsø. Here, coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention is performed. Consequently, local hospitals may be bypassed in the treatment chain, generating differences in case mix, and making the treatment chain model difficult to interpret. We aimed to compare the treatment chain model with an alternative based on patients’ place of living. Methods: Between 2013 and 2015, a total of 3,155 patients were registered in the Norwegian Patient Registry database. All patients were categorized according to their local hospital’s catchment area. The method of Guo-Romano, with an indifference interval of 0.02, was used to test whether a hospital was an outlier or not. We adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, and number of prior hospitalizations. Conclusions: We revealed the 30-day AMI survival figure ranging between 88.0% and 93.5% (absolute difference 5.5% using the hospital catchment method. The treatment chain rate ranged between 86.0% and 94.0% (absolute difference 8.0%. The latter figure is the one published as the National Quality of Care Measure in Norway. Local hospitals may get negative attention even though their catchment area is well served. We recommend the hospital catchment method as the first choice when measuring equality of care.

  3. Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steeves Buckland

    Full Text Available The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp. that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levin's niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

  4. Risk model of thoracic aortic surgery in 4707 cases from a nationwide single-race population through a web-based data entry system: the first report of 30-day and 30-day operative outcome risk models for thoracic aortic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motomura, Noboru; Miyata, Hiroaki; Tsukihara, Hiroyuki; Takamoto, Shinichi

    2008-09-30

    The objective of this study was to collect integrated data from nationwide hospitals using a web-based national database system to build up our own risk model for the outcome from thoracic aortic surgery. The Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database was used; this involved approximately 180 hospitals throughout Japan through a web-based data entry system. Variables and definitions are almost identical to the STS National Database. After data cleanup, 4707 records were analyzed from 97 hospitals (between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2005). Mean age was 66.5 years. Preoperatively, the incidence of chronic lung disease was 11%, renal failure was 9%, and rupture or malperfusion was 10%. The incidence of the location along the aorta requiring replacement surgery (including overlapping areas) was: aortic root, 10%; ascending aorta, 47%; aortic arch, 44%; distal arch, 21%; descending aorta, 27%; and thoracoabdominal aorta, 8%. Raw 30-day and 30-day operative mortality rates were 6.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Postoperative incidence of permanent stroke was 6.1%, and renal failure requiring dialysis was 6.7%. OR for 30-day operative mortality was as follows: emergency or salvage, 3.7; creatinine >3.0 mg/dL, 3.0; and unexpected coronary artery bypass graft, 2.6. As a performance metric of the risk model, C-index of 30-day and 30-day operative mortality was 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. This is the first report of risk stratification on thoracic aortic surgery using a nationwide surgical database. Although condition of these patients undergoing thoracic aortic surgery was much more serious than other procedures, the result of this series was excellent.

  5. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Hourly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002 (NLDAS_NOAH0125_H) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  6. A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhilong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO, the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN, and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

  7. Microglia acquire distinct activation profiles depending on the degree of alpha-synuclein neuropathology in a rAAV based model of Parkinson's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanesa Sanchez-Guajardo

    Full Text Available Post-mortem analysis of brains from Parkinson's disease (PD patients strongly supports microglia activation and adaptive immunity as factors contributing to disease progression. Such responses may be triggered by alpha-synuclein (alpha-syn, which is known to be the main constituent of the aggregated proteins found in Lewy bodies in the brains of PD patients. To investigate this we used a recombinant viral vector to express human alpha-syn in rat midbrain at levels that induced neuronal pathology either in the absence or the presence of dopaminergic cell death, thereby mimicking early or late stages of the disease. Microglia activation was assessed by stereological quantification of Mac1+ cells, as well as the expression patterns of CD68 and MCH II. In our study, when alpha-syn induced neuronal pathology but not cell death, a fast transient increase in microglia cell numbers resulted in the long-term induction of MHC II+ microglia, denoting antigen-presenting ability. On the other hand, when alpha-syn induced both neuronal pathology and cell death, there was a delayed increase in microglia cell numbers, which correlated with long-lasting CD68 expression and a morphology reminiscent of peripheral macrophages. In addition T-lymphocyte infiltration, as judged by the presence of CD4+ and CD8+ cells, showed distinct kinetics depending on the degree of neurodegeneration, and was significantly higher when cell death occurred. We have thus for the first time shown that the microglial response differs depending on whether alpha-syn expression results on cell death or not, suggesting that microglia may play different roles during disease progression. Furthermore, our data suggest that the microglial response is modulated by early events related to alpha-syn expression in substantia nigra and persists at the long term.

  8. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

    2018-01-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  9. Analyzing the non-stationary space relationship of a city's degree of vegetation and social economic conditions in Shanghai, China using OLS and GWR models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kejing; Zhang, Yuan; An, Youzhi; Jing, Zhuoxin; Wang, Chao

    2013-09-01

    With the fast urbanization process, how does the vegetation environment change in one of the most economically developed metropolis, Shanghai in East China? To answer this question, there is a pressing demand to explore the non-stationary relationship between socio-economic conditions and vegetation across Shanghai. In this study, environmental data on vegetation cover, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS imagery in 2003 were integrated with socio-economic data to reflect the city's vegetative conditions at the census block group level. To explore regional variations in the relationship of vegetation and socio-economic conditions, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to characterize mean NDVI against three independent socio-economic variables, an urban land use ratio, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population density. The study results show that a considerable distinctive spatial variation exists in the relationship for each model. The GWR model has superior effects and higher precision than the OLS model at the census block group scale. So, it is more suitable to account for local effects and geographical variations. This study also indicates that unreasonable excessive urbanization, together with non-sustainable economic development, has a negative influence of vegetation vigor for some neighborhoods in Shanghai.

  10. Influence of the degree of simplification of the two-phase hydrodynamic model on the simulated behaviour dynamics of a steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupont, J.F.

    1979-03-01

    The principal simplifications of a mathematical model for the simulation of behaviour dynamics of a two-phase flow with heat exchange are examined, as it appears in a steam generator. The theoretical considerations and numerical solutions permit the evaluation of the validity limits and the influence of these simplifications on the results. (G.T.H.)

  11. Astrophysics days and MHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falgarone, Edith; Rieutord, Michel; Richard, Denis; Zahn, Jean-Paul; Dauchot, Olivier; Daviaud, Francois; Dubrulle, Berengere; Laval, Jean-Philippe; Noullez, Alain; Bourgoin, Mickael; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-Francois; Leveque, Emmanuel; Chainais, Pierre; Abry, Patrice; Mordant, Nicolas; Michel, Olivier; Marie, Louis; Chiffaudel, Arnaud; Daviaud, Francois; Petrelis, Francois; Fauve, Stephan; Nore, C.; Brachet, M.-E.; Politano, H.; Pouquet, A.; Leorat, Jacques; Grapin, Roland; Brun, Sacha; Delour, Jean; Arneodo, Alain; Muzy, Jean-Francois; Magnaudet, Jacques; Braza, Marianna; Boree, Jacques; Maurel, S.; Ben, L.; Moreau, J.; Bazile, R.; Charnay, G.; Lewandowski, Roger; Laveder, Dimitri; Bouchet, Freddy; Sommeria, Joel; Le Gal, P.; Eloy, C.; Le Dizes, S.; Schneider, Kai; Farge, Marie; Bottausci, Frederic; Petitjeans, Philippe; Maurel, Agnes; Carlier, Johan; Anselmet, Fabien

    2001-05-01

    This publication gathers extended summaries of presentations proposed during two days on astrophysics and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The first session addressed astrophysics and MHD: The cold interstellar medium, a low ionized turbulent plasma; Turbulent convection in stars; Turbulence in differential rotation; Protoplanetary disks and washing machines; gravitational instability and large structures; MHD turbulence in the sodium von Karman flow; Numerical study of the dynamo effect in the Taylor-Green eddy geometry; Solar turbulent convection under the influence of rotation and of the magnetic field. The second session addressed the description of turbulence: Should we give up cascade models to describe the spatial complexity of the velocity field in a developed turbulence?; What do we learn with RDT about the turbulence at the vicinity of a plane surface?; Qualitative explanation of intermittency; Reduced model of Navier-Stokes equations: quickly extinguished energy cascade; Some mathematical properties of turbulent closure models. The third session addressed turbulence and coherent structures: Alfven wave filamentation and formation of coherent structures in dispersive MHD; Statistical mechanics for quasi-geo-strophic turbulence: applications to Jupiter's coherent structures; Elliptic instabilities; Physics and modelling of turbulent detached unsteady flows in aerodynamics and fluid-structure interaction; Intermittency and coherent structures in a washing machine: a wavelet analysis of joint pressure/velocity measurements; CVS filtering of 3D turbulent mixing layer using orthogonal wavelets. The last session addressed experimental methods: Lagrangian velocity measurements; Energy dissipation and instabilities within a locally stretched vortex; Study by laser imagery of the generation and breakage of a compressed eddy flow; Study of coherent structures of turbulent boundary layer at high Reynolds number

  12. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

    2017-12-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  13. A novel rat model of blast-induced traumatic brain injury simulating different damage degree: implications for morphological, neurological, and biomarker changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengdong eLiu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In current military conflicts and civilian terrorism, blast-induced traumatic brain injury (bTBI is the primary cause of neurotrauma. However, the effects and mechanisms of bTBI are poorly understood. Although previous researchers have made significant contributions to establishing animal models for the simulation of bTBI, the precision and controllability of blast-induced injury in animal models must be improved. Therefore, we established a novel rat model to simulate blast-wave injury to the brain. To simulate different extents of bTBI injury, the animals were divided into moderate and severe injury groups. The miniature spherical explosives (PETN used in each group were of different sizes (2.5 mm diameter in the moderate injury group and 3.0 mm diameter in the severe injury group. A specially designed apparatus was able to precisely adjust the positions of the miniature explosives and create eight rats with bTBI simultaneously, using a single electric detonator. Neurological functions, gross pathologies, histopathological changes and the expression levels of various biomarkers were examined after the explosion. Compared with the moderate injury group, there were significantly more neurological dysfunctions, cortical contusions, intraparenchymal hemorrhages, cortical expression of S-100β, MBP, NSE, IL-8, IL-10, iNOS and HIF-1α in the severe injury group. These results demonstrate that we have created a reliable and reproducible bTBI model in rats. This model will be helpful for studying the mechanisms of bTBI and developing strategies for clinical bTBI treatment.

  14. Geometrical (Degree 0 Modelling of a FP3+3×RTR+MP3 Type Parallel Topology Robotic Guiding Device, Using the „Pair of Frames” (PF Concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calin Miclosina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The geometrical (degree 0 model of a parallel topology robotic guiding device represents the position-orientation matrix of the mobile platform (MP versus the fixed one (FP; this model refers to generalized displacements. The kinematical scheme of a FP3+3×RTR+MP3 type mechanism is presented, as well as the manner of choice of the attached pair of frames (PF to the links. In the case of direct geometrical modelling, for certain displacements of the actuated translational joints, the position-orientation matrix of the mobile platform versus the fixed one is determined. For inverse geometrical modelling, the position-orientation matrix of MP versus FP is known and the displacements of the actuated translational joints are determined.

  15. Day Care Centers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This database contains locations of day care centers for 50 states and Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. The dataset only includes center based day care locations...

  16. Is day surgery safe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majholm, Birgitte; Engbæk, J; Bartholdy, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Day surgery is expanding in several countries, and it is important to collect information about quality. The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and unanticipated hospital visits 0-30 days post-operatively in a large cohort.......Day surgery is expanding in several countries, and it is important to collect information about quality. The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and unanticipated hospital visits 0-30 days post-operatively in a large cohort....

  17. Day Care: Other Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjartarson, Freida; And Others

    This collection of 5 bilingual papers on day care programs in foreign countries (China, the Soviet Union, and 3 Scandinavian countries) is part of a series of papers on various aspects of day care published by the Canadian Department of Health and Welfare. Each paper is presented in both English and French. Paper I considers day care services in…

  18. Every Day Is Mathematical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barger, Rita H.; Jarrah, Adeeb M.

    2012-01-01

    March 14 is special because it is Pi Day. Mathematics is celebrated on that day because the date, 3-14, replicates the first three digits of pi. Pi-related songs, websites, trivia facts, and more are at the fingertips of interested teachers and students. Less celebrated, but still fairly well known, is National Metric Day, which falls on October…

  19. Development of the negative gravity anomaly of the 85 degrees E Ridge, northeastern Indian Ocean – A process oriented modelling approach

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sreejith, K.M.; Radhakrishna, M.; Krishna, K.S.; Majumdar, T.J.

    Te value. Entire process is repeated for different Te values ranging from 0 to 25 km, until a good fit is obtained between the observed and calculated gravity anomalies considering RMS error as well as amplitude and wavelength of the anomalies... as the goodness of fit. The model parameters used in the computations are given in table 1. 5. Crustal structure and elastic plate thickness (Te) beneath the ridge Following the approach described above, we have computed individual gravity anomalies contributed...

  20. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) file of topographic elevations for the Death Valley region of southern Nevada and southeastern California processed from US Geological Survey 1-degree Digital Elevation Model data files

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, A.K.; D'Agnese, F.A.; Faunt, C.C.

    1996-01-01

    Elevation data have been compiled into a digital data base for an ∼100,000-km 2 area of the southern Great Basin, the Death Valley region of southern Nevada, and SE Calif., located between lat 35 degree N, long 115 degree W, and lat 38 degree N, long 118 degree W. This region includes the Nevada Test Site, Yucca Mountain, and adjacent parts of southern Nevada and eastern California and encompasses the Death Valley regional ground-water system. Because digital maps are often useful for applications other than that for which they were originally intended, and because the area corresponds to a region under continuing investigation by several groups, these digital files are being released by USGS

  1. Slimmed May Day Holiday

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Xinwen

    2008-01-01

    @@ Last November the State Council of China decided to renew its holiday system by reducing the seven-day Mav Dav holiday to three days and introducing three new one-day public holidays,namely the Qingming Festival,Dragon Boat Festival and Moon Festival.BY doing so,the three golden-week holidays that were introduced in 1999,namely the Spring Festival,Mav Dav and National Day,could be better distributed.The New Year's Eve holiday would remain one day.The new holiday plan was supposed to take effect in 2008.

  2. Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

  3. Recent photometric monitoring of KIC 8462852, the detection of a potential repeat of the Kepler day 1540 dip and a plausible model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, R.; Gary, B. L.; Plakhov, A.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents V- and g΄-band observations of the F2V star KIC 8462852, which exhibited enigmatic fade patterns in Kepler mission data. We introduce a transit simulation model for interpretation of these fades, and use it to interpret a 2017 August dip as a repeat of the Kepler day 1540 dip (D1540). We suggest the 2017 August and D1540 dips may be caused by a brown dwarf and an associated ring system in a 1601-d elliptical orbit. Transiting icy moons of the proposed brown dwarf, sublimating near periapsis like comets, could provide an explanation for the significant dips observed by Kepler, as well as the recent 2017 May to October dips and the long-term variation in flux detected by Simon et al. Whereas the presence of such a ring structure is attractive for its ability to explain short-term fade events, we do not address how such a ring system can be created and maintained. This speculation predicted a brightening of ˜1 per cent that occurred during October 2017. In addition, this scenario predicts that a set of dimming events, similar to those in 2013 (Kepler) and in 2017 (reported here), can be expected to repeat during 2021 October to 2022 January and a repeat of D1540 should occur on 2021 December 27.

  4. The Effect of Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) on Ionosphere and Thermosphere during 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm: Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, J.; Deng, Y.; Zhang, D.; Lu, Y.; Sheng, C.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) are incorporated into the non-hydrostatic Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), revealing the complex effects on neutral dynamics and ion-neutral coupling processes. The intense westward ion stream could enhance the neutral zonal wind within the SAPS channel. Through neutral dynamics the neutrals then divide into two streams, one turns poleward and the other turns equatorward, forming a two-cell pattern in the SAPS-changed wind. The significant Joule heating induced by SAPS also leads to traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD) accompanied by traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID), increasing the total electron content (TEC) by 2-8 TECu in the mid-latitude ionosphere. We investigate the potential causes of the reported poleward wind surge during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. It is confirmed that Coriolis force on the westward zonal wind can contribute the poleward wind during post-SAPS interval. In addition, the simulations imply that the sudden decrease of heating rate within auroral oval could result in a TAD propagating equatorward, which could also be responsible for the sudden poleward wind surge. This study highlights the complicated effects of SAPS on ion-neutral coupling and neutral dynamics.

  5. D:L-Amino Acid Modeling Reveals Fast Microbial Turnover of Days to Months in the Subsurface Hydrothermal Sediment of Guaymas Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikkel H. Møller

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the impact of temperature on the microbial turnover of organic matter (OM in a hydrothermal vent system in Guaymas Basin, by calculating microbial bio- and necromass turnover times based on the culture-independent D:L-amino acid model. Sediments were recovered from two stations near hydrothermal mounds (<74°C and from one cold station (<9°C. Cell abundance at the two hydrothermal stations dropped from 108 to 106 cells cm-3 within ∼5 m of sediment depth resulting in a 100-fold lower cell number at this depth than at the cold site where numbers remained constant at 108 cells cm-3 throughout the recovered sediment. There were strong indications that the drop in cell abundance was controlled by decreasing OM quality. The quality of the sedimentary OM was determined by the diagenetic indicators %TAAC (percentage of total organic carbon present as amino acid carbon, %TAAN (percentage of total nitrogen present as amino acid nitrogen, aspartic acid:β-alanine ratios, and glutamic acid:γ-amino butyric acid ratios. All parameters indicated that the OM became progressively degraded with increasing sediment depth, and the OM in the hydrothermal sediment was more degraded than in the uniformly cold sediment. Nonetheless, the small community of microorganisms in the hydrothermal sediment demonstrated short turnover times. The modeled turnover times of microbial bio- and necromass in the hydrothermal sediments were notably faster (biomass: days to months; necromass: up to a few hundred years than in the cold sediments (biomass: tens of years; necromass: thousands of years, suggesting that temperature has a significant influence on the microbial turnover rates. We suggest that short biomass turnover times are necessary for maintance of essential cell funtions and to overcome potential damage caused by the increased temperature.The reduced OM quality at the hyrothemal sites might thus only allow for a small population size of microorganisms.

  6. The Geriatric Day Hospital: Preliminary Data on an Innovative Model of Care in Brazil for Older Adults at Risk of Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliberti, Márlon J R; Suemoto, Claudia K; Fortes-Filho, Sileno Q; Melo, Juliana A; Trindade, Carolina B; Kasai, Juliana Y T; Altona, Marcelo; Apolinario, Daniel; Jacob-Filho, Wilson

    2016-10-01

    Older adults have a greater risk of experiencing functional decline and iatrogenic complications during hospitalization than younger individuals. Geriatric day hospitals (GDHs) have been implemented mainly for rehabilitation. The goal of the current study was to expand the GDH spectrum of care to prevent hospital admissions in this population. This study details an innovative model of GDH care that offers short-term, nonrehabilitative treatment to older adults who have experienced an acute event, those with a decompensated chronic disease, or those in need of a minor procedure that would be unattainable in a regular outpatient setting. During the 6-hour visits made weekly for up to 2 months, participants receive integrated evaluations of their various health domains, education, and rapid access to examinations and procedures based on a multidisciplinary approach. In the first 6 years, 2,322 individuals attended the GDH. The analysis of a representative sample (n = 645) revealed that 81% were treated in the GDH without the need for another type of hospital care. This percentage was high for the different reasons for referral (infection, 71%; delirium, 73%; decompensated chronic disease, 81%). Between baseline and discharge, participants maintained their functional status, and their self-reported health improved. This study represents the first step in describing the role of the GDH as a possible alternative to emergency department use or hospitalization for older adults. Future studies are needed to determine the optimal individual for this model of care and to ensure its cost-effectiveness. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  7. Classification of different degrees of adiposity in sedentary rats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leopoldo, A.S.; Lima-Leopoldo, A.P. [Departamento de Desportos, Centro de Educação Física e Esportes, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES (Brazil); Nascimento, A.F.; Luvizotto, R.A.M.; Sugizaki, M.M. [Instituto de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso, Sinop, MT (Brazil); Campos, D.H.S.; Silva, D.C.T. da [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, SP (Brazil); Padovani, C.R. [Departamento de Bioestatística, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, SP (Brazil); Cicogna, A.C. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, SP (Brazil)

    2016-02-23

    In experimental studies, several parameters, such as body weight, body mass index, adiposity index, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, have commonly been used to demonstrate increased adiposity and investigate the mechanisms underlying obesity and sedentary lifestyles. However, these investigations have not classified the degree of adiposity nor defined adiposity categories for rats, such as normal, overweight, and obese. The aim of the study was to characterize the degree of adiposity in rats fed a high-fat diet using cluster analysis and to create adiposity intervals in an experimental model of obesity. Thirty-day-old male Wistar rats were fed a normal (n=41) or a high-fat (n=43) diet for 15 weeks. Obesity was defined based on the adiposity index; and the degree of adiposity was evaluated using cluster analysis. Cluster analysis allowed the rats to be classified into two groups (overweight and obese). The obese group displayed significantly higher total body fat and a higher adiposity index compared with those of the overweight group. No differences in systolic blood pressure or nonesterified fatty acid, glucose, total cholesterol, or triglyceride levels were observed between the obese and overweight groups. The adiposity index of the obese group was positively correlated with final body weight, total body fat, and leptin levels. Despite the classification of sedentary rats into overweight and obese groups, it was not possible to identify differences in the comorbidities between the two groups.

  8. Classification of different degrees of adiposity in sedentary rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leopoldo, A.S.; Lima-Leopoldo, A.P.; Nascimento, A.F.; Luvizotto, R.A.M.; Sugizaki, M.M.; Campos, D.H.S.; Silva, D.C.T. da; Padovani, C.R.; Cicogna, A.C.

    2016-01-01

    In experimental studies, several parameters, such as body weight, body mass index, adiposity index, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, have commonly been used to demonstrate increased adiposity and investigate the mechanisms underlying obesity and sedentary lifestyles. However, these investigations have not classified the degree of adiposity nor defined adiposity categories for rats, such as normal, overweight, and obese. The aim of the study was to characterize the degree of adiposity in rats fed a high-fat diet using cluster analysis and to create adiposity intervals in an experimental model of obesity. Thirty-day-old male Wistar rats were fed a normal (n=41) or a high-fat (n=43) diet for 15 weeks. Obesity was defined based on the adiposity index; and the degree of adiposity was evaluated using cluster analysis. Cluster analysis allowed the rats to be classified into two groups (overweight and obese). The obese group displayed significantly higher total body fat and a higher adiposity index compared with those of the overweight group. No differences in systolic blood pressure or nonesterified fatty acid, glucose, total cholesterol, or triglyceride levels were observed between the obese and overweight groups. The adiposity index of the obese group was positively correlated with final body weight, total body fat, and leptin levels. Despite the classification of sedentary rats into overweight and obese groups, it was not possible to identify differences in the comorbidities between the two groups

  9. Autologous nerve graft repair of different degrees of sciatic nerve defect:stress and displacement at the anastomosis in a three-dimensional finite element simulation model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cheng-dong Piao; Kun Yang; Peng Li; Min Luo

    2015-01-01

    In the repair of peripheral nerve injury using autologous or synthetic nerve grafting, the mag-nitude of tensile forces at the anastomosis affects its response to physiological stress and the ultimate success of the treatment. One-dimensional stretching is commonly used to measure changes in tensile stress and strain; however, the accuracy of this simple method is limited. There-fore, in the present study, we established three-dimensional ifnite element models of sciatic nerve defects repaired by autologous nerve grafts. Using PRO E 5.0 ifnite element simulation software, we calculated the maximum stress and displacement of an anastomosis under a 5 N load in 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-mm long autologous nerve grafts. We found that maximum displacement increased with graft length, consistent with specimen force. These ifndings indicate that three-dimensional ifnite element simulation is a feasible method for analyzing stress and displacement at the anas-tomosis after autologous nerve grafting.

  10. Autologous nerve graft repair of different degrees of sciatic nerve defect: stress and displacement at the anastomosis in a three-dimensional fnite element simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-dong Piao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the repair of peripheral nerve injury using autologous or synthetic nerve grafting, the magnitude of tensile forces at the anastomosis affects its response to physiological stress and the ultimate success of the treatment. One-dimensional stretching is commonly used to measure changes in tensile stress and strain however, the accuracy of this simple method is limited. Therefore, in the present study, we established three-dimensional finite element models of sciatic nerve defects repaired by autologous nerve grafts. Using PRO E 5.0 finite element simulation software, we calculated the maximum stress and displacement of an anastomosis under a 5 N load in 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-mm long autologous nerve grafts. We found that maximum displacement increased with graft length, consistent with specimen force. These findings indicate that three-dimensional finite element simulation is a feasible method for analyzing stress and displacement at the anastomosis after autologous nerve grafting.

  11. Ecological Effects of the Invasive Giant Madagascar Day Gecko on Endemic Mauritian Geckos: Applications of Binomial-Mixture and Species Distribution Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buckland, S.; Cole, N.C.; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Gallagher, L.E.; Henshaw, S.M.; Besnard, A.; Tucker, R.M.; Bachraz, V.; Ruhomaun, K.; Harris, S.

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos

  12. A Lakatosian Conceptual Change Teaching Strategy Based on Student Ability to Build Models with Varying Degrees of Conceptual Understanding of Chemical Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niaz, M.

    The main objective of this study is to construct a Lakatosian teaching strategy that can facilitate conceptual change in students'' understanding of chemical equilibrium. The strategy is based on the premise that cognitive conflicts must have been engendered by the students themselves in trying to cope with different problem solving strategies. Results obtained (based on Venezuelan freshman students) show that the performance of the experimental group of students was generally better (especially on the immediate post tests) than that of the control group. It is concluded that a conceptual change teaching strategy must take into consideration the following aspects: a) core beliefs of the students in the topic (cf. ''hard core'', Lakatos 1970); b) exploration of the relationship between core beliefs and student alternative conceptions (misconceptions); c) cognitive complexity of the core belief can be broken down into a series of related and probing questions; d) students resist changes in their core beliefs by postulating ''auxiliary hypotheses'' in order to resolve their contradictions; e) students'' responses based on their alternative conceptions must be considered not as wrong, but rather as models, perhaps in the same sense as used by scientists to break the complexity of a problem; and f) students'' misconceptions be considered as alternative conceptions (theories) that compete with the present scientific theories and at times recapitulate theories scientists held in the past.

  13. The Kilo-Degree Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, J. T. A.; Kuijken, K.; Applegate, D.; Begeman, K.; Belikov, A.; Blake, C.; Bout, J.; Boxhoorn, D.; Buddelmeijer, H.; Buddendiek, A.; Cacciato, M.; Capaccioli, M.; Choi, A.; Cordes, O.; Covone, G.; Dall'Ora, M.; Edge, A.; Erben, T.; Franse, J.; Getman, F.; Grado, A.; Harnois-Deraps, J.; Helmich, E.; Herbonnet, R.; Heymans, C.; Hildebrandt, H.; Hoekstra, H.; Huang, Z.; Irisarri, N.; Joachimi, B.; Köhlinger, F.; Kitching, T.; La Barbera, F.; Lacerda, P.; McFarland, J.; Miller, L.; Nakajima, R.; Napolitano, N. R.; Paolillo, M.; Peacock, J.; Pila-Diez, B.; Puddu, E.; Radovich, M.; Rifatto, A.; Schneider, P.; Schrabback, T.; Sifon, C.; Sikkema, G.; Simon, P.; Sutherland, W.; Tudorica, A.; Valentijn, E.; van der Burg, R.; van Uitert, E.; van Waerbeke, L.; Velander, M.; Kleijn, G. V.; Viola, M.; Vriend, W.-J.

    2013-01-01

    The Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), a 1500-square-degree optical imaging survey with the recently commissioned OmegaCAM wide-field imager on the VLT Survey Telescope (VST), is described. KiDS will image two fields in u-,g-,r- and i-bands and, together with the VIKING survey, produce nine-band (u- to

  14. Research Degrees as Professional Education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnacle, Robyn; Dall'Alba, Gloria

    2011-01-01

    There is an increasing trend within higher education and, more specifically, in higher degrees by research, to treat a professional skills set as a desirable graduate outcome. The increasing value that is being placed on a professional skills set in large part reflects growing interest around the world in the role of research degrees in labour…

  15. Open Day at SHMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarosova, M.

    2010-09-01

    During the World Meteorological Day there has been preparing "Open Day" at Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. This event has more than 10 years traditions. "Open Day" is one of a lot of possibilities to give more information about meteorology, climatology, hydrology too to public. This "Day" is executed in whole Slovakia. People can visit the laboratories, the forecasting room....and meteo and clima measuring points. The most popular is visiting forecasting room. Visitors are interested in e.g. climatologic change in Slovakia territory, preparing weather forecasting, dangerous phenomena.... Every year we have more than 500 visitors.

  16. Set our Master's degrees free

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padman, Rachael

    2010-04-01

    Making UK undergraduate physics degrees longer must have seemed like a good idea at the time. Back in the early 1990s the standard three-year Bachelor's physics degree (four years in Scotland) was under pressure at both ends. The A-level curriculum - one of the requirements for entry onto a degree course - was being increasingly modularized, and dumbed down. Physics students were arriving at university less well prepared than in the past and there was an increasing awareness that graduates of five-year continental degree courses were better equipped for a professional scientific career than those in the UK. At the same time, local education authorities in the UK were required to provide full funding for a first degree, whether for three or four years.

  17. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gaudel

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available 'The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report' (TOAR is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB between 60°N–60°S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited

  18. INFORMATION-ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR THE SELECTION OF MANAGEMENT METHODS ACCORDING TO THE DEGREE OF THEIR INFLUENCE ON EFFICIENCY OF PRODUCTION ACTIVITY OF CONSTRUCTION ORGANISATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. T. Ismailova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Relevant problems related to the adoption of unprogrammed solutions in the process of managing the production  activity of a construction enterprise in unstable, a priori  underdetermined economic environments are addressed.The aim of  the study is todevelop tools and methods for assessing the  effectiveness of the current state of construction production and on  this basis to identify the most effective management of a  construction organisation under unstable market conditions.Methods. The methodology of the conducted research is based on the application of the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy sets for the  processing of expert data and the formation on this basis of linguistic functions that determine the analytical relationship between various  indicators of the production activity of the construction organisation.Results. A method is developed for processing expert data using  fuzzy logic, making it possible to form an analytical relationship  between the performance indicators of the production activity of the  construction organisation and the management parameters that  determine its current state. An alternative means for selecting the  most effective management approach, accounting for its influence on the efficiency of the production activity of the construction organisation, is developed.Conclusion. An information-economic model of situational management of the development of a construction organisation is  developed. The proposed tools and methods allow the effective  management of the production activity of the construction  organisation to be organised, and on this basis to increase the  efficiency of production under different economic conditions in the presence of spontaneously arising perturbative factors. The methodical approach to the organisation of management of the  production activity efficiency of the construction organisation allows the effective subsystems of management

  19. Degree and connectivity of the Internet's scale-free topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Lian-Ming; Wu Xiang-Sheng; Deng Xiao-Heng; Yu Jian-Ping

    2011-01-01

    This paper theoretically and empirically studies the degree and connectivity of the Internet's scale-free topology at an autonomous system (AS) level. The basic features of scale-free networks influence the normalization constant of degree distribution p(k). It develops a new mathematic model for describing the power-law relationships of Internet topology. From this model we theoretically obtain formulas to calculate the average degree, the ratios of the k min -degree (minimum degree) nodes and the k max -degree (maximum degree) nodes, and the fraction of the degrees (or links) in the hands of the richer (top best-connected) nodes. It finds that the average degree is larger for a smaller power-law exponent λ and a larger minimum or maximum degree. The ratio of the k min -degree nodes is larger for larger λ and smaller k min or k max . The ratio of the k max -degree ones is larger for smaller λ and k max or larger k min . The richer nodes hold most of the total degrees of Internet AS-level topology. In addition, it is revealed that the increased rate of the average degree or the ratio of the k min -degree nodes has power-law decay with the increase of k min . The ratio of the k max -degree nodes has a power-law decay with the increase of k max , and the fraction of the degrees in the hands of the richer 27% nodes is about 73% (the ‘73/27 rule’). Finally, empirically calculations are made, based on the empirical data extracted from the Border Gateway Protocol, of the average degree, ratio and fraction using this method and other methods, and find that this method is rigorous and effective for Internet AS-level topology. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  20. Quark degrees of freedom in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovas, I.

    1986-03-01

    Experimental facts which can not be interpreted in terms of nucleonic degrees of freedom are reviewed. Attempts to explain these observations by the help of the notions of quark physics are indicated. Some predicted exotic states are enumerated. The most promising models of the nucleon-nucleon interactions in terms of quarks are briefly discussed. (author)

  1. Toward the Ideal Professional Master's Degree Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Maria P.

    1999-01-01

    Outlines work accomplished at the 1998 National Communication Association Summer Conference, presenting a model for a professional master's-degree program in public relations that integrates outcomes, assessment, curriculum, and pedagogy. Outlines program outcomes, curriculum, essential curriculum-content areas, pedagogical approaches, and…

  2. HadISST (1-degree)/HadISST (1-degree)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly version of HadISST sea surface temperature component (1-degree). See Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell,...

  3. Orthopaedics in day surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    processing of day cases is separate, more efficient and cases of ... anaesthetists, patient records, costing of procedures, drugs to be ... Methods: Patients treated at two day surgical units study with the aid of careful record, as to the selection, ... treatment only. .... Trauma, especially road traffic .... children with cerebral palsy.

  4. NO TOBACCO DAY

    CERN Multimedia

    Medical Service

    2002-01-01

    The CERN Medical Service is joining in with the world no tobacco day, which takes place on 31 May 2002. We encourage you to take this opportunity to stop smoking for good. Nurses and Doctors will be present on that day to give out information on methods to stop smoking and to assist you in your efforts.

  5. The Graduation Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛竹晨

    2004-01-01

    It is one of the hottest summer days that Cambridge has ever had.We wereclad(clothe的过去式和过去分词)in the black gown once more.However thiswill probably be my last time to wear it.I had not been wearing it that much af-ter all.After this day,it will be shipped back to my home and lie in my closet,just to be dug out many years later and the sight of it will bring me back to thisvery day.It is our graduation day,the day wher we can add a hood(头巾;兜帽)

  6. Degree-degree correlations in directed networks with heavy-tailed degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoorn, W.L.F.; Litvak, Nelli

    2013-01-01

    In network theory, Pearson's correlation coefficients are most commonly used to measure the degree assortativity of a network. We investigate the behavior of these coefficients in the setting of directed networks with heavy-tailed degree sequences. We prove that for graphs where the in- and

  7. Degree-degree dependencies in directed networks with heavy-tailed degrees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoorn, W.L.F.; Litvak, Nelly

    2015-01-01

    In network theory, Pearson’s correlation coefficients are most commonly used to measure the degree assortativity of a network. We investigate the behavior of these coefficients in the setting of directed networks with heavy-tailed degree sequences. We prove that for graphs where the in- and

  8. AAS 227: Day 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    Editors Note:This week were at the 227th AAS Meeting in Kissimmee, FL. Along with several fellow authors from astrobites.com, I will bewritingupdates on selectedevents at themeeting and posting at the end of each day. Follow along here or atastrobites.com, or catch ourlive-tweeted updates from the@astrobites Twitter account. The usual posting schedule for AAS Nova will resumenext week.Welcome to Day 4 of the winter American Astronomical Society (AAS) meeting in Kissimmee! Several of us are attending the conference this year, and we will report highlights from each day here on astrobites. If youd like to see more timely updates during the day, we encourage you to follow @astrobites on twitter or search the #aas227 hashtag.Helen B. Warner Prize: Origins of Structure in Planetary Systems (by Erika Nesvold)Another excellent prize lecture started off todays sessions. The Helen B. Warner Prize is awarded for achievement in observational or theoretical astrophysics by a young researcher (no more than eight years after their Ph.D.). This years Warner Prize was presented to Ruth Murray-Clay of UC Santa Barbara. For her award lecture, Murray-Clay told us all about planetary system architecture: the number, masses, and orbits of planets in a given system.Ruth Murray-Clay [photo from http://web.physics.ucsb.edu/ ~murray/biocv.html]The underlying question motivating this type of research is: How rare is the Solar System? In other words, how likely is it that a given planetary system will have rocky planets close to their star, gas giants farther out, and ice giants at the outer reaches of the system? Answering this question will help us solve the physics problem of how and where planets form, and will also help us on our search for other planets like Earth.The data on exoplanet population from transit and radial velocity observations and from direct imaging tell us that our Solar System is not common (many systems we observe have much more eccentric gas giants), but that doesnt

  9. The system Cu-Rh-S at 900 degrees, 700 degrees, 540 degrees and 500 degrees C

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karup-Møller, Sven; Makovicky, E.

    2007-01-01

    Phase relations in the dry condensed system Cu-Rh-S were determined at 900, 700, 540 and 500 degrees C. At 900 degrees C, the system contains digenite, four rhodium sulfides (Rh17S15, Rh3S4, Rh2S3 and RhS similar to 3), three ternary sulfides (CuRh2S4, CuxRhS3+x and a fibrous sulfide in the range...

  10. High degree modes and instrumental effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korzennik, S G [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Rabello-Soares, M C; Schou, J [Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States)], E-mail: skorzennik@cfa.harvard.edu

    2008-10-15

    Full-disk observations taken with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft, or the upgraded Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) instruments, have enough spatial resolution to resolve modes up to {iota} = 1000 if not {iota} = 1500. The inclusion of such high-degree modes (i.e., {iota} {<=} 1000) improves dramatically inferences near the surface. Unfortunately, observational and instrumental effects cause the characterization of high degree modes to be quite complicated. Indeed, the characteristics of the solar acoustic spectrum are such that, for a given order, mode lifetimes get shorter and spatial leaks get closer in frequency as the degree of a mode increases. A direct consequence of this property is that individual modes are resolved only at low and intermediate degrees. At high degrees the individual modes blend into ridges and the power distribution of the ridge defines the ridge central frequency, masking the underlying mode frequency. An accurate model of the amplitude of the peaks that contribute to the ridge power distribution is needed to recover the underlying mode frequency from fitting the ridge. We present a detailed discussion of the modeling of the ridge power distribution, and the contribution of the various observational and instrumental effects on the spatial leakage, in the context of the MDI instrument. We have constructed a physically motivated model (rather than an ad hoc correction scheme) that results in a methodology that can produce unbiased estimates of high-degree modes. This requires that the instrumental characteristics are well understood, a task that has turned out to pose a major challenge. We also present our latest results, where most of the known instrumental and observational effects that affect specifically high-degree modes were removed. These new results allow us to focus our attention on changes with solar activity. Finally, we present variations of mode

  11. Adult Day Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home Health Aide Semi Private Private $25,000 Adult Day Servi Acesssisted Living Home Care Nursing Homes $0 1. General information based on industry views of various members of the National Adult ...

  12. Adult Day Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Finding a Center Not all states license and regulate adult day care centers. There may be a ... is not usually covered by Medicare insurance, some financial assistance may be available through a federal or ...

  13. Open Day: General Information

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    http://www.cern.ch/cern50/ With 50 visit points, including theatre performances, debates and visits to installations that have never before been opened to the public, CERN's 50th anniversary Open Day is set to be a day to remember. Seven hundred volunteers have signed up to help for the day. The Open Day team truly appreciates this wonderful show of support! The Open Day would not be possible without their help. Car parking and Access Cars with a CERN sticker can access all CERN sites as normal. However, to avoid congestion on Meyrin site, we ask you to park in areas that will not be open to the public (see below) and to use the shuttle services wherever possible for your transport during the day. Private cars on the French side of the border without a CERN sticker will be diverted to a car park area in the Prévessin site. There is a shuttle service connecting the Meyrin and Prévessin sites via SM18 every 20 minutes. Private cars on the Swiss side of the border without a CERN sticker will be diverte...

  14. Preoperative selective desensitization of live donor liver transplant recipients considering the degree of T lymphocyte cross-match titer, model for end-stage liver disease score, and graft liver volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Geun; Yi, Nam-Joon; Suh, Suk-won; Yoo, Tae; Kim, Hyeyoung; Park, Min-Su; Choi, YoungRok; Lee, Kyungbun; Lee, Kwang-Woong; Park, Myoung Hee; Suh, Kyung-Suk

    2014-05-01

    Several studies have suggested that a positive lymphocyte cross-matching (XM) is associated with low graft survival rates and a high prevalence of acute rejection after adult living donor liver transplantations (ALDLTs) using a small-for-size graft. However, there is still no consensus on preoperative desensitization. We adopted the desensitization protocol from ABO-incompatible LDLT. We performed desensitization for the selected patients according to the degree of T lymphocyte cross-match titer, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and graft liver volume. We retrospectively evaluated 230 consecutive ALDLT recipients for 5 yr. Eleven recipients (4.8%) showed a positive XM. Among them, five patients with the high titer (> 1:16) by antihuman globulin-augmented method (T-AHG) and one with a low titer but a high MELD score of 36 were selected for desensitization: rituximab injection and plasmapheresis before the transplantation. There were no major side effects of desensitization. Four of the patients showed successful depletion of the T-AHG titer. There was no mortality and hyperacute rejection in lymphocyte XM-positive patients, showing no significant difference in survival outcome between two groups (P=1.000). In conclusion, this desensitization protocol for the selected recipients considering the degree of T lymphocyte cross-match titer, MELD score, and graft liver volume is feasible and safe.

  15. Ecological Effects of the Invasive Giant Madagascar Day Gecko on Endemic Mauritian Geckos: Applications of Binomial-Mixture and Species Distribution Models

    OpenAIRE

    Buckland, S.; Cole, N.C.; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Gallagher, L.E.; Henshaw, S.M.; Besnard, A.; Tucker, R.M.; Bachraz, V.; Ruhomaun, K.; Harris, S.

    2014-01-01

    The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to...

  16. [Morpho-functional characteristic of the lumbar area of the human vertebral column in the individuals with various degrees of lumbar lordosis (on the basis of three-dimensional computer modeling)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koveshnikov, V G; Mavrich, V V; Bolgova, E S

    2008-01-01

    This investigation was aimed at the evaluation of the borders of individual variability of the human lumbar spine lordosis. 224 nuclear magnetic tomograms of persons of mature age were analyzed using morphometric, statistical methods, method of three-dimensional (3D) computer modeling and finite-element analysis. During the investigation, a hardware-software complex for morphometric research was created together with the new method of development of 3D computer models of the lumbar spine. The application of 3D modeling allowed to extend the knowledge of human spine biomechanics. Tensions and deformations were calculated in all lumbar vertebrae and intervertebral disks on the basis of spine 3D models developed. Finite-element analysis proved that a normal angle of lumbar lordosis was optimal for the transmission of the adequate compression loads, while the extreme forms of individual variability (high degrees of hyper- and hypolordosis), by changing the geometry of the vertebral column, result in the decrease of the functionality of this system.

  17. A 90 day safety assessment of genetically modified rice expressing Cry1Ab/1Ac protein using an aquatic animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hao-Jun; Chen, Yi; Li, Yun-He; Wang, Jia-Mei; Ding, Jia-Tong; Chen, Xiu-Ping; Peng, Yu-Fa

    2015-04-15

    In fields of transgenic Bt rice, frogs are exposed to Bt proteins through consumption of both target and nontarget insects. In the present study, we assessed the risk posed by transgenic rice expressing a Cry1Ab/1Ac fusion protein (Huahui 1, HH1) on the development of Xenopus laevis. For 90 days, froglets were fed a diet with 30% HH1 rice, 30% parental rice (Minghui 63, MH63), or no rice as a control. Body weight and length were measured every 15 days. After sacrificing the froglets, we performed a range of biological, clinical, and pathological assessments. No significant differences were found in body weight (on day 90: 27.7 ± 2.17, 27.4 ± 2.40, and 27.9 ± 1.67 g for HH1, MH63, and control, respectively), body length (on day 90: 60.2 ± 1.55, 59.3 ± 2.33, and 59.7 ± 1.64 mm for HH1, MH63, and control, respectively), animal behavior, organ weight, liver and kidney function, or the microstructure of some tissues between the froglets fed on the HH1-containing diet and those fed on the MH63-containing or control diets. This indicates that frog development was not adversely affected by dietary intake of Cry1Ab/1Ac protein.

  18. Associations of breed and feeding management with milk production curves at herd level using a random regression test-day model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caccamo, M.; Veerkamp, R.F.; Ferguson, J.D.; Petriglieri, R.; Terra, La F.; Licitra, G.

    2010-01-01

    Earlier studies identified large between-herd variation in estimated lactation curve parameters from test-day milk yield and milk composition records collected in Ragusa province, Italy. The objective of this study was to identify sources of variation able to explain these between-herd differences

  19. 4th Optimization Day

    CERN Document Server

    Eberhard, Andrew; Ralph, Daniel; Glover, Barney M

    1999-01-01

    Although the monograph Progress in Optimization I: Contributions from Aus­ tralasia grew from the idea of publishing a proceedings of the Fourth Optimiza­ tion Day, held in July 1997 at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, the focus soon changed to a refereed volume in optimization. The intention is to publish a similar book annually, following each Optimization Day. The idea of having an annual Optimization Day was conceived by Barney Glover; the first of these Optimization Days was held in 1994 at the University of Ballarat. Barney hoped that such a yearly event would bring together the many, but widely dispersed, researchers in Australia who were publishing in optimization and related areas such as control. The first Optimization Day event was followed by similar conferences at The University of New South Wales (1995), The University of Melbourne (1996), the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (1997), and The University of Western Australia (1998). The 1999 conference will return to Ballarat ...

  20. Probabilistic relation between In-Degree and PageRank

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litvak, Nelli; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.; Volkovich, Y.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a novel stochastic model that explains the relation between power laws of In-Degree and PageRank. PageRank is a popularity measure designed by Google to rank Web pages. We model the relation between PageRank and In-Degree through a stochastic equation, which is inspired by the

  1. The degree distribution of fixed act-size collaboration networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we investigate a special evolving model of collaboration net-works, where the act-size is fixed. Based on the first-passage probability of Markov chain theory, this paper provides a rigorous proof for the existence of a limiting degree distribution of this model and proves that the degree distribution obeys the ...

  2. Night work, light exposure and melatonin on work days and days off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugaard, Stine; Garde, Anne Helene; Bonde, Jens Peter Ellekilde

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to examine the effects of night work on salivary melatonin concentration during and subsequent to night work and the mediating role of light. We included 254 day workers and 87 night workers who were followed during 322 work days and 301 days off work. Each day was defined as the 24 hour...... period starting from the beginning of a night shift or from waking in the mornings with day work and days off. Light levels were recorded and synchronized with diary information (start and end of sleep and work). On average, participants provided four saliva samples per day, and these were analyzed...... for melatonin concentration by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Differences between day and night workers on work days and days off were assessed with multilevel regression models with melatonin concentration as the primary outcome. All models were stratified or adjusted by time of day...

  3. Day of Remembrance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uri, John

    2018-01-01

    Every year in late January, NASA holds a Day of Remembrance, honoring the astronauts lost in three major space flight accidents: Apollo 1, Challenger and Columbia. In an odd tragic coincidence, all three of the accidents happened in late January or early February, although many years apart: Apollo 1 on January 27, 1967; Challenger on January 28, 1986; and Columbia on February 1, 2003. While the day is a solemn one to commemorate the astronauts who lost their lives, it is also a day to reflect on the errors that led to the accidents and to remind all NASA workers and managers to be ever vigilant so that preventable accidents don't happen again.

  4. High-Degree Neurons Feed Cortical Computations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas M Timme

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent work has shown that functional connectivity among cortical neurons is highly varied, with a small percentage of neurons having many more connections than others. Also, recent theoretical developments now make it possible to quantify how neurons modify information from the connections they receive. Therefore, it is now possible to investigate how information modification, or computation, depends on the number of connections a neuron receives (in-degree or sends out (out-degree. To do this, we recorded the simultaneous spiking activity of hundreds of neurons in cortico-hippocampal slice cultures using a high-density 512-electrode array. This preparation and recording method combination produced large numbers of neurons recorded at temporal and spatial resolutions that are not currently available in any in vivo recording system. We utilized transfer entropy (a well-established method for detecting linear and nonlinear interactions in time series and the partial information decomposition (a powerful, recently developed tool for dissecting multivariate information processing into distinct parts to quantify computation between neurons where information flows converged. We found that computations did not occur equally in all neurons throughout the networks. Surprisingly, neurons that computed large amounts of information tended to receive connections from high out-degree neurons. However, the in-degree of a neuron was not related to the amount of information it computed. To gain insight into these findings, we developed a simple feedforward network model. We found that a degree-modified Hebbian wiring rule best reproduced the pattern of computation and degree correlation results seen in the real data. Interestingly, this rule also maximized signal propagation in the presence of network-wide correlations, suggesting a mechanism by which cortex could deal with common random background input. These are the first results to show that the extent to

  5. Melas Chasma, Day and Night.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    This image is a mosaic of day and night infrared images of Melas Chasma taken by the camera system on NASA's Mars Odyssey spacecraft. The daytime temperature images are shown in black and white, superimposed on the martian topography. A single nighttime temperature image is superimposed in color. The daytime temperatures range from approximately -35 degrees Celsius (-31 degrees Fahrenheit) in black to -5 degrees Celsius (23 degrees Fahrenheit) in white. Overlapping landslides and individual layers in the walls of Melas Chasma can be seen in this image. The landslides flowed over 100 kilometers (62 miles) across the floor of Melas Chasma, producing deposits with ridges and grooves of alternating warm and cold materials that can still be seen. The temperature differences in the daytime images are due primarily to lighting effects, where sunlit slopes are warm (bright) and shadowed slopes are cool (dark). The nighttime temperature differences are due to differences in the abundance of rocky materials that retain their heat at night and stay relatively warm (red). Fine grained dust and sand (blue) cools off more rapidly at night. These images were acquired using the thermal infrared imaging system infrared Band 9, centered at 12.6 micrometers.Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science in Washington, D.C. Investigators at Arizona State University in Tempe, the University of Arizona in Tucson and NASA's Johnson Space Center, Houston, operate the science instruments. Additional science partners are located at the Russian Aviation and Space Agency and at Los Alamos National Laboratories, New Mexico. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL. Aviation and Space Agency and at Los Alamos National Laboratories

  6. Depth and degree of melting of komatiites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzberg, Claude

    1992-04-01

    High pressure melting experiments have permitted new constraints to be placed on the depth and degree of partial melting of komatiites. Komatiites from Gorgona Island were formed by relatively low degrees of pseudoinvariant melting involving L + Ol + Opx + Cpx + Gt on the solidus at 40 kbar, about 130 km depth. Munro-type komatiites were separated from a harzburgite residue (L + Ol + Opx) at pressures that were poorly constrained, but were probably around 50 kbar, about 165 km depth; the degree of partial melting was less than 40 percent. Secular variations in the geochemistry of komatiites could have formed in response to a reduction in the temperature and pressure of melting with time. The 3.5 Ga Barberton komatiites and the 2.7 Ga Munro-type komatiities could have formed in plumes that were hotter than the present-day mantle by 500 deg and 300 deg, respectively. When excess temperatures are this size, melting is deeper and volcanism changes from basaltic to momatiitic. The komatiities from Gorgona Island, which are Mesozoic in age, may be representative of komatiities that are predicted to occur in oceanic plateaus of Cretaceous age throughout the Pacific (Storey et al., 1991).

  7. AAS 227: Day 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    % atoms, 23% dark matter, and 73% dark energy.Spergel and Kamionkowski then pointed towards the future, predicting even more spectacular results to come over the next decade or so. Our current model of the universe predicts gravitational waves, which we havent observed so far, but the search is heating up. Kamionkowski called this potentially the most important new physics result of this century! He also explained that we can now do neutrino physics using the cosmic microwave background, which already provides the strongest constraint on the sum of neutrinon masses. In the next decade, we should be able to further determine the neutrino mass hierarchy. The coming years in cosmology could be even more exciting than the past twenty!HEAD Rossi Prize talk: A New View of the High Energy Universe with NuSTAR (by Susanna Kohler)This years Rossi Prize winner Fiona Harrison capped off the main part of the day with a plenary talk about some of the highlights from the first two years of the NuSTAR mission, NASAs space-based, high-energy X-ray telescope.Additional science results from the past two years with NuSTAR.Harrison began by telling us about NuSTARs launch in 2012, in which a Pegasus rocket with NuSTAR as its payload was launched from a L-1011 Stargazer aircraft. She claims to have been unconcerned about this part: The payload would go up or it would go down, there wasnt anything I could do about it. The real terror for the NuSTAR team came 9 days later when the telescope slowly unfolded itself over the span of 24 minutes, snapping components into place. All went well, however, and NuSTAR has since been forging exciting new territory in the high-energy X-ray regime!Harrison discussed science highlights from the last two years of NuSTAR, like the discovery of a population of dead stars in the inner parsecs of the galaxy, the identification of the mechanism that most likely re-energizes stalled shocks in supernovae and launches the explosion (in case youre keeping track, its

  8. Jamming in complex networks with degree correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastore y Piontti, Ana L.; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Macri, Pablo A.

    2010-01-01

    We study the effects of the degree-degree correlations on the pressure congestion J when we apply a dynamical process on scale free complex networks using the gradient network approach. We find that the pressure congestion for disassortative (assortative) networks is lower (bigger) than the one for uncorrelated networks which allow us to affirm that disassortative networks enhance transport through them. This result agree with the fact that many real world transportation networks naturally evolve to this kind of correlation. We explain our results showing that for the disassortative case the clusters in the gradient network turn out to be as much elongated as possible, reducing the pressure congestion J and observing the opposite behavior for the assortative case. Finally we apply our model to real world networks, and the results agree with our theoretical model.

  9. Marketing Your Day Camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, George

    1997-01-01

    Marketing strategies for day camps include encouraging camp staff to get involved in organizations involving children, families, and communities; holding camp fairs; offering the use of camp facilities to outside groups; hosting sport leagues and local youth outings; planning community fairs; and otherwise involving the camp in the community. (LP)

  10. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  11. Every Child, Every Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allington, Richard L.; Gabriel, Rachael E.

    2012-01-01

    We know more now than we ever did before about how to make every child a successful reader, write Allington and Gabriel in this research review. Yet, few students regularly receive the best reading instruction we know how to give. The authors present research supporting their recommendation that every child, every day, should (1) read something he…

  12. NATIONAL HEARING DAY

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    The 12th of June 2003 Is the French National Hearing Day. The Medical Service invites everyone working at CERN to come and have an ear test at the infirmary. Bld. 57, ground floor, between 9h00 and 16h00 Tel. 73802

  13. National hearing day

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    The 12th of June 2003 Is the French National Hearing Day. The Medical Service invites everyone working at CERN to come and have an ear test at the infirmary. Bld. 57, ground floor, between 9h00 and 16h00 Tel. 73802

  14. CERN openlab Open Day

    CERN Multimedia

    Purcell, Andrew Robert

    2015-01-01

    The CERN openlab Open Day took place on 10 June, 2015. This was the first in a series of annual events at which research and industrial teams from CERN openlab can present their projects, share achievements, and collect feedback from their user communities.

  15. Ten-day rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knox, E.G.; Stewart, A.M.; Kneale, G.W.; Gilman, E.A.

    1987-01-01

    The authors argue against R.H. Mole's paper (Lancet, Dec. 12 1987), supporting the relaxation of ICRP recommendations and the DHSS decision to withdraw the 10 day rule in relation to diagnostic radiography for menstruating women, and draw attention to the recent refinement of estimates of the enhanced risk of childhood cancers, following diagnostic radiography during pregnancy. (U.K.)

  16. National HIV Testing Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses National HIV Testing Day, an annual observance which raises awareness of the importance of knowing one's HIV status and encourages at-risk individuals to get an HIV test.

  17. 90-Day Cycle Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sandra; Takahashi, Sola

    2013-01-01

    90-Day Cycles are a disciplined and structured form of inquiry designed to produce and test knowledge syntheses, prototyped processes, or products in support of improvement work. With any type of activity, organizations inevitably encounter roadblocks to improving performance and outcomes. These barriers might include intractable problems at…

  18. World Heart Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-09-01

    For World Heart Day, learn more about what heart-healthy steps you can take in the workplace.  Created: 9/1/2009 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 9/9/2009.

  19. Radiochemistry days; Journees radiochimie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    This document provides the 44 papers (transparencies used during the presentations and posters) presented at the Radiochemistry Days, held September 3-4, 1998 in Nantes, France. The main studied topics were problematic questions concerning the nuclear fuel cycle and in particular the management, storage of radioactive wastes and the environmental impact. (O.M.)

  20. Life after a Humanities Degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masola, Athambile

    2016-01-01

    This article explores the experiences of a humanities graduate after leaving the academy. The author considers her own education in light of the historical changes in South Africa's education system. The article is a personal account of the questions and challenges encountered in choosing a humanities degree in a context where a tertiary education…