WorldWideScience

Sample records for degradation expert elicitation

  1. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  2. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

  3. Expert elicitation and the problem of detecting undeclared activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Sylvester, Kori Budlong; Stanbro, William D.

    2002-01-01

    Measures applicable to the detection of undeclared activities are not well established, and their effectiveness is uncertain. To detect clandestine paths, the IAEA is still developing processes and procedures. As the Agency gains experience with new measures and with integrated safeguards, dealing with such problems may become more experience-based and perhaps more closely parallel the process with current safeguards where detection probabilities for the measures to be utilized on declared paths are well characterized. Whether or not this point will be reached for undeclared and mixed paths, the only tool that appears suitable at present for the purpose of generating a reasonable detection probability that can over time be tested against reality and, if necessary, adjusted is formal expert judgment, or expert elicitation. Formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. To provide a 'proof of principle' of this methodology for presentation to the Agency, experts in nuclear technology, nonproliferation, safeguards and open source information, as well as in formal expert elicitation processes, engaged in three illustrative expert elicitations on assessing information analysis as a means to detect undeclared activities. These elicitations were successful. This paper will discuss the process of and issues raised by the elicitations.

  4. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

    2007-01-01

    Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

  5. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  6. Expert Panel Elicitation of Seismicity Following Glaciation in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hora, Stephen; Jensen, Mikael

    2005-12-01

    The Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company have jointly carried out a project on expert panel elicitation on the issue of glacial induced Swedish earthquakes. Following a broad nomination procedure, 5 experts were chosen by a selection committee of 4 professors within Earth sciences disciplines. The 5 experts presented judgments about the frequency of earthquakes greater the magnitude 6 within 10 km for two Swedish sites, Oskarshamn and Forsmark, in connection with a glaciation cycle. The experts' median value vas 0,1 earthquakes for one glaciation cycle

  7. Expert Panel Elicitation of Seismicity Following Glaciation in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hora, Stephen; Jensen, Mikael (eds.)

    2005-12-15

    The Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company have jointly carried out a project on expert panel elicitation on the issue of glacial induced Swedish earthquakes. Following a broad nomination procedure, 5 experts were chosen by a selection committee of 4 professors within Earth sciences disciplines. The 5 experts presented judgments about the frequency of earthquakes greater the magnitude 6 within 10 km for two Swedish sites, Oskarshamn and Forsmark, in connection with a glaciation cycle. The experts' median value vas 0,1 earthquakes for one glaciation cycle.

  8. Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

  9. Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

    2013-09-01

    The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Perman, Roseanne C.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents results of the Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation (SZEE) project for Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (referred to as the YMP) is intended to evaluate the suitability of the site for construction of a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The SZEE project is one of several that involve the elicitation of experts to characterize the knowledge and uncertainties regarding key inputs to the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The objective of the current project was to characterize the uncertainties associated with certain key issues related to the saturated zone system in the Yucca Mountain area and downgradient region. An understanding of saturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the saturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent the physical processes controlling saturated zone flow and transport, and the parameter values used in the models. So that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and

  11. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-01

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To validate the developed method

  12. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-01-01

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: → Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. → EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. → EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. → EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. → EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration

  13. A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    China has emerged as the global manufacturing center for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. Chinese firms have entered all stages of the supply chain, producing most of the installed solar modules around the world. Meanwhile, production costs are at record lows. The decisions that Chinese solar producers make today will influence the path for the solar industry and its role towards de-carbonization of global energy systems in the years to come. However, to date, there have been no assessments of the future costs and efficiency of solar PV systems produced by the Chinese PV industry. We perform an expert elicitation to assess the technological and non-technological factors that led to the success of China’s silicon PV industry as well as likely future costs and performance. Experts evaluated key metrics such as efficiency, costs, and commercial viability of 17 silicon and non-silicon solar PV technologies by 2030. Silicon-based technologies will continue to be the mainstream product for large-scale electricity generation application in the near future, with module efficiency reaching as high as 23% and production cost as low as 0.24/W. The levelized cost of electricity for solar will be around 34/MWh, allowing solar PV to be competitive with traditional energy resources like coal. The industry’s future developments may be affected by overinvestment, overcapacity, and singular short-term focus.

  14. Eliciting and communicating expert judgments: Methodology and application to nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1989-01-01

    The most ambitious and certainly the most extensive formal expert judgment process was the elicitation of numerous events and uncertain quantities for safety issues in five nuclear power plants in the U.S. The general methodology for formal expert elicitations are described. An overview of the expert elicitation process of NUREG 1150 is provided and the elicitation of probabilities for the interfacing systems loss of coolant accident LOCA (ISL) in PWRs is given as an example of this elicitation process. Some lessons learned from this study are presented. (DG)

  15. Eliciting and communicating expert judgments: methodology and application to nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von; Commission of the European Communities, Ispra

    1989-01-01

    Expert judgment has always been used informally in the analysis of complex engineering problems. Increasingly, however, the use of expert judgment has been formalized by eliciting judgments in an explicit, documented and often quantitative way. In nuclear safety studies the need for formal elicitation of expert judgments arises because of the lack of data and experiences, the need to adapt model results to the specific circumstances of a plant, and the large uncertainties surrounding the events and quantities that characterize an accident sequence. The recognition of the need for a formal elicitation of expert judgments has led to one of the most extensive expert elicitation processes to date in the context of the NUREG 1150 study. About 30 safety issues were quantified using expert judgments about probabilities of various uncertain events and quantities, ranging from the failure of a check valve in the cooling system to the pressure built up due to hydrogen production to release fractions of various radionuclides. In total, some 1000 probability distributions were elicited from some 50 experts. This paper first motivates the use of formal expert elicitation in complex engineering studies and describes the methodology of formal expert elicitation. Subsequently, it describes the overall approach of NUREG 1150 and provides an example of the elicitation of the probability of a bypass failure in a pressurized water reactor. The paper ends by discussing some lessons learned, problems encountered and by providing some recommendations

  16. Application and Evaluation of an Expert Judgment Elicitation Procedure for Correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van de Schoot-Hubeek, Wenneke; Lek, Kimberley; Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to apply and evaluate a procedure to elicit expert judgments about correlations, and to update this information with empirical data. The result is a face-to-face group elicitation procedure with as its central element a trial roulette question that elicits experts' judgments expressed as distributions. During the elicitation procedure, a concordance probability question was used to provide feedback to the experts on their judgments. We evaluated the elicitation procedure in terms of validity and reliability by means of an application with a small sample of experts. Validity means that the elicited distributions accurately represent the experts' judgments. Reliability concerns the consistency of the elicited judgments over time. Four behavioral scientists provided their judgments with respect to the correlation between cognitive potential and academic performance for two separate populations enrolled at a specific school in the Netherlands that provides special education to youth with severe behavioral problems: youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and youth with diagnoses other than ASD. Measures of face-validity, feasibility, convergent validity, coherence, and intra-rater reliability showed promising results. Furthermore, the current study illustrates the use of the elicitation procedure and elicited distributions in a social science application. The elicited distributions were used as a prior for the correlation, and updated with data for both populations collected at the school of interest. The current study shows that the newly developed elicitation procedure combining the trial roulette method with the elicitation of correlations is a promising tool, and that the results of the procedure are useful as prior information in a Bayesian analysis.

  17. Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

    1990-05-01

    This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

  18. Attribution of Foodborne Pathogens Using Structured Expert Elicitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Havelaar, A.H.; Vargas Galindo, A.; Kurowicka, D.; Cooke, R.M.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human–human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. Methods: Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates

  19. Proposal for a Five-Step Method to Elicit Expert Judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duco Veen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Elicitation is a commonly used tool to extract viable information from experts. The information that is held by the expert is extracted and a probabilistic representation of this knowledge is constructed. A promising avenue in psychological research is to incorporated experts’ prior knowledge in the statistical analysis. Systematic reviews on elicitation literature however suggest that it might be inappropriate to directly obtain distributional representations from experts. The literature qualifies experts’ performance on estimating elements of a distribution as unsatisfactory, thus reliably specifying the essential elements of the parameters of interest in one elicitation step seems implausible. Providing feedback within the elicitation process can enhance the quality of the elicitation and interactive software can be used to facilitate the feedback. Therefore, we propose to decompose the elicitation procedure into smaller steps with adjustable outcomes. We represent the tacit knowledge of experts as a location parameter and their uncertainty concerning this knowledge by a scale and shape parameter. Using a feedback procedure, experts can accept the representation of their beliefs or adjust their input. We propose a Five-Step Method which consists of (1 Eliciting the location parameter using the trial roulette method. (2 Provide feedback on the location parameter and ask for confirmation or adjustment. (3 Elicit the scale and shape parameter. (4 Provide feedback on the scale and shape parameter and ask for confirmation or adjustment. (5 Use the elicited and calibrated probability distribution in a statistical analysis and update it with data or to compute a prior-data conflict within a Bayesian framework. User feasibility and internal validity for the Five-Step Method are investigated using three elicitation studies.

  20. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  1. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.

    2016-01-01

    . This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five...... languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values...

  2. Expert Opinion Elicitation Using Fuzzy Set Theory and Distempers-Shaker's Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Donghan

    1993-01-01

    This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation. The need to work with rare events and limited data is severe accident have led analysts to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approaches using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited data and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining fuzzy probabilities in a manner consistent with the Distempers-Shaper's Theory (DDT). The propagation of fuzzy probabilities through a system is also introduced

  3. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of

  4. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of

  5. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Angulo, Fred; Bin Hamzah, Wan Mansor

    2016-01-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so...... it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps...

  6. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  7. Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

  8. Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V Hampson

    Full Text Available Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa.A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.

  9. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  10. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

    2017-01-01

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  11. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-08-02

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  12. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  13. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-01-01

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop number-sign 2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages

  14. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-15

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To

  15. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  16. Examining recent expert elicitation, judgment guidelines: Value assumptions and the prospects for rationality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, P.A. [Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE (United States). Dept. of Philosophy

    1999-12-01

    Any examination of the role of values in decisions on risk must take into consideration the increasing reliance on the expert judgment method. Today, reliance on expert judgment is conspicuously present in the documents and work associated with site characterization of Yucca Mountain as a host for the United States' first high level nuclear waste repository. The NRC encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment's state of the art technology as a complement to deterministic approaches to nuclear regulatory activities. It considers expert judgment as one of those technologies. At the last International Conference on High-Level Nuclear Waste Development several presentations report on the use of expert elicitation sessions held during 1997 at Yucca Mountain. Over a decade ago, few guidelines existed for Department of Energy work in expert judgment. In an analysis of these guidelines, I described the author-advocate's view of the role of values in this method of risk assessment. I suggested that the guidelines assume naive positivism. I noted that the creators of these guidelines also tend toward scientific realism in their apologetic tone that expert judgment falls short of representing the way nature is. I also pointed to a tendency toward what I call a heightened or super-realism. Normal science represents the way the world is and for expert judgment this is only likely so. Expert judgment method, however, is capable of truly capturing expertise in a representative sense. The purpose of this paper is to examine new guidelines from the Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with a view to eliciting the epistemological assumptions about the role of values and the status of objectivity claimed for this method. Do these new guidelines also adopt naive positivism? Does the inability to encounter raw, pure, value-neutral expert judgment, reveal itself in these guidelines? Or do these guidelines adopt the belief that values are not

  17. Examining recent expert elicitation, judgment guidelines: Value assumptions and the prospects for rationality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Any examination of the role of values in decisions on risk must take into consideration the increasing reliance on the expert judgment method. Today, reliance on expert judgment is conspicuously present in the documents and work associated with site characterization of Yucca Mountain as a host for the United States' first high level nuclear waste repository. The NRC encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment's state of the art technology as a complement to deterministic approaches to nuclear regulatory activities. It considers expert judgment as one of those technologies. At the last International Conference on High-Level Nuclear Waste Development several presentations report on the use of expert elicitation sessions held during 1997 at Yucca Mountain. Over a decade ago, few guidelines existed for Department of Energy work in expert judgment. In an analysis of these guidelines, I described the author-advocate's view of the role of values in this method of risk assessment. I suggested that the guidelines assume naive positivism. I noted that the creators of these guidelines also tend toward scientific realism in their apologetic tone that expert judgment falls short of representing the way nature is. I also pointed to a tendency toward what I call a heightened or super-realism. Normal science represents the way the world is and for expert judgment this is only likely so. Expert judgment method, however, is capable of truly capturing expertise in a representative sense. The purpose of this paper is to examine new guidelines from the Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with a view to eliciting the epistemological assumptions about the role of values and the status of objectivity claimed for this method. Do these new guidelines also adopt naive positivism? Does the inability to encounter raw, pure, value-neutral expert judgment, reveal itself in these guidelines? Or do these guidelines adopt the belief that values are not (and should

  18. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

  19. Classification of Listeria monocytogenes persistence in retail delicatessen environments using expert elicitation and machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangay, P; Steingrimsson, J; Wiedmann, M; Stasiewicz, M J

    2014-10-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that persistence of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants has been the underlying cause of a number of human listeriosis outbreaks. This study extracts criteria used by food safety experts in determining bacterial persistence in the environment, using retail delicatessen operations as a model. Using the Delphi method, we conducted an expert elicitation with 10 food safety experts from academia, industry, and government to classify L. monocytogenes persistence based on environmental sampling results collected over six months for 30 retail delicatessen stores. The results were modeled using variations of random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, and linear regression; variable importance values of random forest and support vector machine models were consolidated to rank important variables in the experts' classifications. The duration of subtype isolation ranked most important across all expert categories. Sampling site category also ranked high in importance and validation errors doubled when this covariate was removed. Support vector machine and random forest models successfully classified the data with average validation errors of 3.1% and 2.2% (n = 144), respectively. Our findings indicate that (i) the frequency of isolations over time and sampling site information are critical factors for experts determining subtype persistence, (ii) food safety experts from different sectors may not use the same criteria in determining persistence, and (iii) machine learning models have potential for future use in environmental surveillance and risk management programs. Future work is necessary to validate the accuracy of expert and machine classification against biological measurement of L. monocytogenes persistence. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

    2003-08-01

    This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

  1. Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

    2017-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

  2. Expert knowledge elicitation using computer simulation: the organization of frail elderly case management as an illustration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiêm, Jean-Christophe; Van Durme, Thérèse; Vandendorpe, Florence; Schmitz, Olivier; Speybroeck, Niko; Cès, Sophie; Macq, Jean

    2014-08-01

    Various elderly case management projects have been implemented in Belgium. This type of long-term health care intervention involves contextual factors and human interactions. These underlying complex mechanisms can be usefully informed with field experts' knowledge, which are hard to make explicit. However, computer simulation has been suggested as one possible method of overcoming the difficulty of articulating such elicited qualitative views. A simulation model of case management was designed using an agent-based methodology, based on the initial qualitative research material. Variables and rules of interaction were formulated into a simple conceptual framework. This model has been implemented and was used as a support for a structured discussion with experts in case management. The rigorous formulation provided by the agent-based methodology clarified the descriptions of the interventions and the problems encountered regarding: the diverse network topologies of health care actors in the project; the adaptation time required by the intervention; the communication between the health care actors; the institutional context; the organization of the care; and the role of the case manager and his or hers personal ability to interpret the informal demands of the frail older person. The simulation model should be seen primarily as a tool for thinking and learning. A number of insights were gained as part of a valuable cognitive process. Computer simulation supporting field experts' elicitation can lead to better-informed decisions in the organization of complex health care interventions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Catenacci, Michela; Fiorese, Giulia; Verdolini, Elena

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD and D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models. - Highlights: ► With constant public support at least one solar technology will become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. ► Demonstration should become a key area of funding. ► Without climate policy (carbon price), by 2030 solar technologies will not be cost-competitive. ► The EU will first achieve a breakthrough in production costs. ► The share of electricity production from solar will never exceed 30%.

  4. Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, Junichi [NUMO, Tokyo (Japan); Kawamura, Hideki [Obayashi Corporation, Tokyo (Japan); Chapman, Neil [MCM Consulting, Baden (Switzerland)

    2013-07-01

    This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

  5. Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goto, Junichi; Kawamura, Hideki; Chapman, Neil

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

  6. Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events: Expert judgment elicitation. Part 1: Expert panel results. Part 2: Project staff results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, T A; Cramond, W R [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S C [University of Hawii at Hilo (United States); Unwin, S D [Brookhaven National Laboratory (United States)

    1989-04-01

    Quantitative modeling techniques have limitations as to the resolution of important issues in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Not all issues can be resolved via the existing set of methods such as fault trees, event trees, statistical analyses, data collection, and computer simulation. Therefore, an expert judgment process was developed to address issues perceived as important to risk in the NUREG-1150 analysis but which could not be resolved with existing techniques. This process was applied to several issues that could significantly affect the internal event core damage frequencies of the PRAs performed on six light water reactors. Detailed descriptions of these issues and the results of the expert judgment elicitation are reported here, as well as an explanation of the methodology used and the procedure followed in performing the overall elicitation task. The process is time-consuming and expensive. However, the results are very useful, and represent an improvement over the draft NUREG-1150 analysis in the areas of expert selection, elicitation training, issue selection and presentation, elicitation of judgment and aggregation of results. The results are presented in two parts. Part documents the expert panel elicitations, where the most important issues were presented to a panel of experts convened from throughout the nuclear power risk assessment community. Part 2 documents the process by which the project staff performed expert judgment on other important issues, using the project staff as panel members. (author)

  7. Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Lamb

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Scour (localised erosion during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

  8. Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-08-01

    Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

  9. Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunekreef Bert

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from coarser fractions, this could affect health impact assessment of air pollution, which would possibly lead to alternative policy options to be considered to reduce the disease burden of PM. Therefore, we organized an expert elicitation workshop to assess the evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to UFP and health endpoints. Methods An expert elicitation on the health effects of ambient ultrafine particle exposure was carried out, focusing on: 1 the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2 the likelihood of potential causal pathways for cardiac events. Based on a systematic peer-nomination procedure, fourteen European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians were selected, of whom twelve attended. They were provided with a briefing book containing key literature. After a group discussion, individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results The likelihood of an independent causal relationship between increased short-term UFP exposure and increased all-cause mortality, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, aggravation of asthma symptoms and lung function decrements was rated medium to high by most experts. The likelihood for long-term UFP exposure to be causally related to all cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and lung cancer was rated slightly lower, mostly medium. The experts rated the likelihood of each of the six identified possible causal pathways separately. Out of these

  10. Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

    2017-12-15

    The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  12. Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flandoli, F. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Giorgi, E. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Aspinall, W.P. [Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, and Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury (United Kingdom); Neri, A., E-mail: neri@pi.ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy)

    2011-10-15

    The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy. - Highlights: > A new expert elicitation model, named Expected Relative Frequency (ERF), is presented. > A cross-validation approach to evaluate the performance of different elicitation models is applied. > The new ERF model shows the best performance with respect to the point-wise estimates.

  13. Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

    1996-11-01

    Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE's license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE's experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC's geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs

  14. Using Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Impacts of Plastic Pollution on Marine Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallos, N. J.; Wilcox, C.; Leonard, G. H.; Rodriquez, A. G.; Hardesty, B. D.

    2016-02-01

    With the rapid increase in global plastics production and the resulting large volume of litter that enters the marine environment, determining the consequences of this debris on marine fauna and ocean health has now become a critical environmental priority, particularly for threatened and endangered species. However, there are limited data about the impacts on debris on marine species from which to draw conclusions about the population consequences of anthropogenic debris. To address this knowledge gap, information was elicited from experts on the ecological threat of entanglement, ingestion and chemical contamination for three major marine taxa: seabirds, sea turtles and marine mammals. The threat assessment focused on the most common types of litter that are found along the world's coastlines, based on data gathered during three decades of international coastal clean-up efforts. Fishing related gear, balloons and plastic bags were estimated to pose the greatest entanglement risk to marine fauna. In contrast, experts identified a broader suite of items of concern for ingestion, with plastic bags and plastic utensils ranked as the greatest threats. Entanglement and ingestion affected a similar range of taxa, although entanglement was slightly worse as it is more likely to be lethal. Contamination was scored the lowest in terms of its impact, affecting a smaller portion of the taxa and being rated as having solely non-lethal impacts. Research designed to better understand and quantify the impacts of chemical contamination on marine fauna at individual, population and species levels should be a priority for conservation biologists. This work points towards a number of opportunities for both policy-based and consumer-driven changes in plastics use that could have demonstrable affects for a range of taxa that are ecologically important and serve as indicators of marine ecosystem health. Based on threat rankings, entanglement and ingestion should be a similar priority

  15. Structured expert elicitation about Listeria monocytogenes cross-contamination in the environment of retail deli operations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoelzer, Karin; Oliver, Haley F; Kohl, Larry R; Hollingsworth, Jill; Wells, Martin T; Wiedmann, Martin

    2012-07-01

    Listeria monocytogenes is among the foodborne pathogens with the highest death toll in the United States. Ready-to-eat foods contaminated at retail are an important source of infection. Environmental sites in retail deli operations can be contaminated. However, commonly contaminated sites are unlikely to come into direct contact with food and the public health relevance of environmental contamination has remained unclear. To identify environmental sites that may pose a considerable cross-contamination risk, to elucidate potential transmission pathways, and to identify knowledge gaps, we performed a structured expert elicitation of 41 experts from state regulatory agencies and the food retail industry with practical experience in retail deli operations. Following the "Delphi" method, the elicitation was performed in three consecutive steps: questionnaire, review and discussion of results, second questionnaire. Hands and gloves were identified as important potential contamination sources. However, bacterial transfers to and from hands or gloves represented a major data gap. Experts agreed about transfer probabilities from cutting boards, scales, deli cases, and deli preparation sinks to product, and about transfer probabilities from floor drains, walk-in cooler floors, and knife racks to food contact surfaces. Comparison of experts' opinions to observational data revealed a tendency among experts with certain demographic characteristics and professional opinions to overestimate prevalence. Experts' votes clearly clustered into separate groups not defined by place of employment, even though industry experts may have been somewhat overrepresented in one cluster. Overall, our study demonstrates the value and caveats of expert elicitation to identify data gaps and prioritize research efforts. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-05-23

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits — fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity—addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for

  17. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

    2017-09-01

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

  18. Current debates on end-of-life sedation: an international expert elicitation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papavasiliou, Evangelia Evie; Payne, Sheila; Brearley, Sarah

    2014-08-01

    End-of-life sedation, though increasingly prevalent and widespread internationally, remains one of the most highly debated medical practices in the context of palliative medicine. This qualitative study aims to elicit and record the perspectives of leading international palliative care experts on current debates. Twenty-one professionals from diverse backgrounds, sharing field-specific knowledge/expertise defined by significant scholarly contribution on end-of-life sedation, were recruited. Open-ended, semi-structured interviews, following a topic-oriented structure reflecting on current debates, were conducted. Results were analysed using thematic content analysis. Three main aspects of sedation were identified and discussed as potentially problematic: (a) continuous deep sedation as an extreme facet of end-of-life sedation, (b) psycho-existential suffering as an ambivalent indication for sedation and (c) withdrawal or withholding of artificial nutrition and hydration as potentially life-shortening. On these grounds, concerns were reported over end-of-life sedation being morally equivalent to euthanasia. Considerable emphasis was placed on intentions as the distinguishing factor between end-of-life acts, and protective safeguards were introduced to distance sedation from euthanasia. This study shows that, despite the safeguards introduced, certain aspects of sedation, including the intentions associated with the practice, are still under question, parallels being drawn between end-of-life sedation and euthanasia. This reaffirms the existence of a grey area surrounding the two practices, already evidenced in countries where euthanasia is legalized. More clarity over the issues that generate this grey area, with their causes being uncovered and eliminated, is imperative to resolve current debates and effectively inform research, policy and practice of end-of-life sedation.

  19. Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Henrion, Max; Aleluia Reis, Lara

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology experts, performed over a period of five years using a range of different methodologies, but all aiming at eliciting expert judgment on the future cost of five key energy technologies and how future costs might be influenced by public R&D investments. To enable researchers and policy makers to use the wealth of collective knowledge obtained through these expert elicitations we develop and present a set of assumptions to harmonize them. We also aggregate expert estimates within each study and across studies to facilitate the comparison. The analysis showed that, as expected, technology costs are expected to go down by 2030 with increasing levels of R&D investments, but that there is not a high level of agreement between individual experts or between studies regarding the technology areas that would benefit the most from R&D investments. This indicates that further study of prospective cost data may be useful to further inform R&D investments. We also found that the contributions of additional studies to the variance of costs in one technology area differed by technology area, suggesting that (barring new information about the downsides of particular forms of elicitations) there may be value in not only including a diverse and relatively large group of experts, but also in using different methods to collect estimates. - Highlights: • Harmonization of unique dataset on probabilistic evolution of key energy technologies. • Expectations about the impact of public R&D investments on future costs. • Highlighting the key uncertainties and a lack of consensus on cost evolution

  20. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1992-01-01

    In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author)

  1. Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Hoffmann

    Full Text Available Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions.We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates.We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world

  2. Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

    2017-01-01

    Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance

  3. Expert-Opinion Elicitation for the Risk Analysis of Design-Improvement Alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ayyub, Bilal M

    2002-01-01

    This report documents the expert-opinion elicitation performed to meet risk analysis needs of the lower lock approach sediment management improvement alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam...

  4. Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy

    2017-01-01

    as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model...... was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food...

  5. Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

    2018-01-01

    The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

  6. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  7. Elicitation of expert knowledge on controlling Salmonella in the pork chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaag, v.d. M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2002-01-01

    Salmonella is one of the most important risks for food safety, and pork is one of the sources of human salmonellosis. A chain approach is essential to reduce Salmonella in pork products. A survey was carried out among Dutch and Danish experts in the field of Salmonella to evaluate the entire pork

  8. Flammable gas project expert elicitation results for Hanford Site double-shell tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the results of the second phase of parameter quantification by the flammable gas expert panel. This second phase is focused on the analysis of flammable gas accidents in the Hanford Site double-shell tanks. The first phase of parameter quantification, performed in 1997 was focused on the analysis of Hanford single-shell tanks

  9. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community

  10. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of the long-term effects of radioactive waste repositories: an annotated bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1993-01-01

    This annotated bibliography describes the key literature relevant to the elicitation of expert judgements in radioactive waste management. The bibliography is divided into seven sections; section 2 lists the literature exploring the proper interpretation of probabilities used in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). Section 3 lists literature describing other calculi for handling uncertainty in a numerical fashion. In section 4 comments are given on how to elicit probabilities from individuals as a measure of subjective degrees of belief and section 5 lists the literature concerning how expert judgements can be combined. Sections 6 and 7 list literature giving an overview of the issues involved in PRA for radioactive waste repositories. (author)

  11. MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Funk

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

  12. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J. C., LLNL

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  13. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  14. A formal process for elicitation and validation of expert judgments for safety case in the context of spent nuclear fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hukki, K.

    2008-09-01

    The report introduces a proposal for a formal expert judgment elicitation and validation process for Posiva in the construction of the safety case of the spent fuel disposal facility at Olkiluoto. The procedure has been developed by adopting a systemic, interaction-based approach to elicitation and validation. By taking this view the approach differs from other approaches to formal expert judgment. The concept for the formal procedure has been developed by taking the support for collaboration as the primary requirement for the development. The procedure provides systematic practices and a forum for joint assessment and makes it possible for the domain experts to participate in the discussions and decisions on the validity of the input data. In addition to the experts, also the safety analysts are elicited, in a way. The two-way elicitation enhances mutual understanding between the participants and assures collaboration of equal parties. The procedure provides also conceptual tools that support decision making in validation by enhancing transparency of reasoning. The predefined forms and descriptions serve as shared frames of references and enhance the comprehension of, e.g., the nature and impact of the uncertainties of the input data, the ways of thinking underlying the different disciplines and the significance of one's role as part of the construction of the safety case. Enhanced motivation and transparency of reasoning contribute to improved transfer and integration of knowledge across the disciplinary boundaries and, as a consequence, makes it easier to reach a consensus between the participants. (orig.)

  15. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  16. Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

    2018-06-01

    Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  18. Identification of component performance degradations caused by ageing using expert panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitoi, Mirela; Cristea, Dumitru; Pavelescu, Margarit

    2008-01-01

    Since the component ageing can be considered as one of the important causes of operating events reported, the identification of ageing effects and implementation of appropriate methods for mitigation of these effects represent an important preoccupation of many organizations and research activities. In the process of identification of ageing manifestation we can use either analysis of operational data or expert opinions, each of the methods having specific advantages and disadvantages. A reasonable combination of statistical, structural reliability and expert panel methods would be an appropriate approach in the failure probability assessments. In case when there are not enough operational data, the expert judgments represent the only viable alternative in the effort dedicated to identification of components and systems vulnerability to ageing. The panel use judgments to analyse the degradation produced by ageing, to score the components based on specific criteria and to rank them relative to one another. The paper presents the approach developed, including evaluation criteria and assigning indices for assessment of particular types of ageing degradation (the case of secondary system of TRIGA reactor). (authors)

  19. Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

  20. A risk-informed approach of quantification of epistemic uncertainty for the long-term radioactive waste disposal. Improving reliability of expert judgements with an advanced elicitation procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Chida, Taiji; Fujita, Tomonari; Tsukamoto, Masaki

    2011-01-01

    A quantification methodology of epistemic uncertainty by expert judgement based on the risk-informed approach is developed to assess inevitable uncertainty for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The proposed method in this study employs techniques of logic tree, by which options of models and/or scenarios are identified, and Evidential Support Logic (ESL), by which possibility of each option is quantified. In this report, the effect of a feedback process of discussion between experts and input of state-of-the-art knowledge in the proposed method is discussed to estimate alteration of the distribution of expert judgements which is one of the factors causing uncertainty. In a preliminary quantification experiment of uncertainty of degradation of the engineering barrier materials in a tentative sub-surface disposal using the proposed methodology, experts themselves modified questions appropriately to facilitate sound judgements and to correlate those with scientific evidences clearly. The result suggests that the method effectively improves confidence of expert judgement. Also, the degree of consensus of expert judgement was sort of improved in some cases, since scientific knowledge and information of expert judgement in other fields became common understanding. It is suggested that the proposed method could facilitate consensus on uncertainty between interested persons. (author)

  1. Polyploid tumour cells elicit paradiploid progeny through depolyploidizing divisions and regulated autophagic degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erenpreisa, Jekaterina; Salmina, Kristine; Huna, Anda; Kosmacek, Elizabeth A; Cragg, Mark S; Ianzini, Fiorenza; Anisimov, Alim P

    2011-07-01

    'Neosis' describes the process whereby p53 function-deficient tumour cells undergo self-renewal after genotoxic damage apparently via senescing ETCs (endopolyploid tumour cells). We previously reported that autophagic digestion and extrusion of DNA occurs in ETC and subsequently revealed that self-renewal transcription factors are also activated under these conditions. Here, we further studied this phenomenon in a range of cell lines after genotoxic damage induced by gamma irradiation, ETO (etoposide) or PXT (paclitaxel) treatment. These experiments revealed that chromatin degradation by autophagy was compatible with continuing mitotic activity in ETC. While the actively polyploidizing primary ETC produced early after genotoxic insult activated self-renewal factors throughout the polygenome, the secondary ETC restored after failed multipolar mitosis underwent subnuclei differentiation. As such, only a subset of subnuclei continued to express OCT4 and NANOG, while those lacking these factors stopped DNA replication and underwent degradation and elimination through autophagy. The surviving subnuclei sequestered nascent cytoplasm to form subcells, while being retained within the confines of the old ETC. Finally, the preformed paradiploid subcells became released from their linking chromosome bridges through autophagy and subsequently began cell divisions. These data show that 'neotic' ETC resulting from genotoxically damaged p53 function-deficient tumour cells develop through a heteronuclear system differentiating the polyploid genome into rejuvenated 'viable' subcells (which provide mitotically propagating paradiploid descendents) and subnuclei, which become degraded and eliminated by autophagy. The whole process reduces aneuploidy in descendants of ETC.

  2. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions

  3. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tine Hald

    Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food.We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead. Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more

  4. Land Degradation Monitoring in the Ordos Plateau of China Using an Expert Knowledge and BP-ANN-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation monitoring is of vital importance to provide scientific information for promoting sustainable land utilization. This paper presents an expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach to detect and monitor land degradation in an effort to overcome the deficiencies of image classification and vegetation index-based approaches. The proposed approach consists of three generic steps: (1 extraction of knowledge on the relationship between land degradation degree and predisposing factors, which are NDVI and albedo, from domain experts; (2 establishment of a land degradation detecting model based on the BP-ANN algorithm; and (3 land degradation dynamic analysis. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the development of land degradation in the Ordos Plateau of China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The results indicate that the proposed approach is reliable for monitoring land degradation, with an overall accuracy of 91.2%. From 1990–2010, a reverse trend of land degradation is observed in Ordos Plateau. Regions with relatively high land degradation dynamic were mostly located in the northeast of Ordos Plateau. Additionally, most of the regions have transferred from a hot spot of land degradation to a less changed area. It is suggested that land utilization optimization plays a key role for effective land degradation control. However, it should be highlighted that the goals of such strategies should aim at the main negative factors causing land degradation, and the land use type and its quantity must meet the demand of population and be reconciled with natural conditions. Results from this case study suggest that the expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach is effective in mapping land degradation.

  5. Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boobis, Alan; Flari, Villie; Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Craig, Peter; Rushton, Lesley; Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi

    2013-07-01

    The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

  7. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  8. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables

  9. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt: Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    The Columbia River Basalts Underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett flow interior. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. 210 refs., 12 figs., 5 tabs

  10. An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Landsberg, Jan H.

    2017-11-20

    Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results.Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in

  11. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  12. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  13. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

    2016-01-01

    transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives......., seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge...

  14. At-risk adolescents as experts in a new requirements elicitation procedure for the development of a smart phone psychoeducational trauma-informed care application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sockolow, Paulina; Schug, Seran; Zhu, Jichen; Smith, T J; Senathirajah, Yalini; Bloom, Sandra

    2017-01-01

    Adolescents from urban, socioeconomically disadvantaged communities of color encounter high rates of adverse childhood experiences. To address the resulting multidimensional problems, we developed an innovative approach, Experiential Participatory and Interactive Knowledge Elicitation (EPIKE), using remote experiential needs elicitation methods to generate design and content requirements for a mobile health (mHealth) psychoeducational intervention. At a community-based organization in a northeastern city, the research team developed EPIKE by incorporating elicitation of input on the graphics and conducting remotely recorded experiential meetings and iterative reviews of the design to produce an mHealth smartphone story application (app) prototype for the participants to critique. The 22 participants were 13- to 17-year-olds, predominantly African American and female, from underresourced communities. The four goals of the design process were attained: 1) story development from participant input; 2) needs-elicitation that reflected the patient-centered care approach; 3) interactive story game creation that accommodates the participants' emotional and cognitive developmental needs; 4) development of a game that adolescents can relate to and that which matches their comfort levels of emotional intensity. The EPIKE approach can be used successfully to identify the needs of adolescents across the digital divide to inform the design and development of mHealth apps.

  15. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10 -8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  16. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts

  17. Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2013-01-01

    resilient decisionmaking and problem-solving is incorporation of a wide range of perspectives (Carpenter and others, 2009). To ensure that a wide range of scientists had an opportunity to weigh in on the strategic science questions, the GCMRC elicited additional perspectives through written questionnaires. Independently soliciting responses from scientists through questionnaires had the added advantage of allowing all scientists to freely and openly share their views on complex and controversial topics—something which may not have occurred in the group setting of the June 2011 Knowledge Assessment Workshop because of dominance by one or more scientists. The purpose of this report is to document and interpret the questionnaire responses.

  18. Comparación de efectividad de las técnicas de educción de requisitos software: visión novel y experta Comparison on effectiveness of the software requirements elicitation techniques: novice and expert vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dante Carrizo Moreno

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available La Ingeniería de Requisitos puede hacer uso de una gran cantidad de técnicas para educir las necesidades de los usuarios. No obstante, apenas existen guías y criterios prácticos para realizar la selección de técnicas en un proyecto de desarrollo de software. Este artículo intenta conocer la visión que tienen los ingenieros de requisitos noveles acerca de la efectividad de las técnicas de educción y compararlas con la visión de expertos en requisitos. Para efectuar la comparación se utiliza la técnica de emparrillado que permite conocer indirectamente la opinión de los sujetos respecto de las técnicas. Los resultados muestran una sustancial diferencia entre ambas visiones respecto a la efectividad de las técnicas y contexto de la educción. Esto implica que una más amplia formación, y principalmente práctica, es necesaria para que los ingenieros noveles puedan reconocer diferencias de efectividad de las técnicas y poder decidir con mayor certeza sobre las técnicas más adecuadas a utilizar en las sesiones de educción de requisitos.Requirements engineering can use a lot of techniques to gather the users' needs. However, currently there are few practical guidelines and criteria for selecting techniques in a software development project. This paper tries to know the vision that novice requirements engineers have about the effectiveness of requirements elicitation techniques and compare it with the requirements experts' vision. To carry out the comparison, repertory grid technique was used. This technique allows knowing indirectly the subject's opinion on the techniques. The results show a substantial difference between both visions with regard to the techniques and elicitation context. This implies that a more extensive training, and primarily practice, is necessary in order for novice engineers to recognize differences in techniques effectiveness and decide with greater certainty about the most appropriate techniques to use in

  19. A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schlag, K.H.; van der Weele, J.J.

    2015-01-01

    We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a "most likely interval", a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how well the

  20. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

  1. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  2. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  3. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  4. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  5. Belief Elicitation in Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander

    Belief elicitation in economics experiments usually relies on paying subjects according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. Such incentives, however, allow risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of other decisions......-belief elicitation treatment using a financial investment frame, where hedging arguably would be most natural....

  6. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  7. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  8. Delphi Fuzzy Elicitation Technique in the Determination of Third ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Delphi technique via the expert elicitation method becomes extremely handy particularly in view of limited availability of data in determining failure probabilities of onshore transmission pipelines in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria occasioned by third party activity. Using, ten (10) experts opinion elucidated individually ...

  9. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  10. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  11. In-vessel core degradation code validation matrix update 1996-1999. Report by an OECD/NEA group of experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-02-01

    In 1991 the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) issued a State-of-the-Art Report (SOAR) on In-Vessel Core Degradation in Light Water Reactor (LWR) Severe Accidents. Based on the recommendations of this report a Validation Matrix for severe accident modelling codes was produced. Experiments performed up to the end of 1993 were considered for this validation matrix. To include recent experiments and to enlarge the scope, an update was formally inaugurated in January 1999 by the Task Group on Degraded Core Cooling, a sub-group of Principal Working Group 2 (PWG-2) on Coolant System Behaviour, and a selection of writing group members was commissioned. The present report documents the results of this study. The objective of the Validation Matrix is to define a basic set of experiments, for which comparison of the measured and calculated parameters forms a basis for establishing the accuracy of test predictions, covering the full range of in-vessel core degradation phenomena expected in light water reactor severe accident transients. The emphasis is on integral experiments, where interactions amongst key phenomena as well as the phenomena themselves are explored; however separate-effects experiments are also considered especially where these extend the parameter ranges to cover those expected in postulated LWR severe accident transients. As well as covering PWR and BWR designs of Western origin, the scope of the review has been extended to Eastern European (VVER) types. Similarly, the coverage of phenomena has been extended, starting as before from the initial heat-up but now proceeding through the in-core stage to include introduction of melt into the lower plenum and further to core coolability and retention to the lower plenum, with possible external cooling. Items of a purely thermal hydraulic nature involving no core degradation are excluded, having been covered in other validation matrix studies. Concerning fission product behaviour, the effect

  12. Eliciting Sound Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Anna

    2015-11-01

    Sensory experiences are often considered triggers of memory, most famously a little French cake dipped in lime blossom tea. Sense memory can also be evoked in public history research through techniques of elicitation. In this article I reflect on different social science methods for eliciting sound memories such as the use of sonic prompts, emplaced interviewing, and sound walks. I include examples from my research on medical listening. The article considers the relevance of this work for the conduct of oral histories, arguing that such methods "break the frame," allowing room for collaborative research connections and insights into the otherwise unarticulatable.

  13. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  14. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  15. Elicited vs. voluntary promises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ismayilov, H.; Potters, Jan

    2017-01-01

    We set up an experiment with pre-play communication to study the impact of promise elicitation by trustors from trustees on trust and trustworthiness. When given the opportunity a majority of trustors solicits a promise from the trustee. This drives up the promise making rate by trustees to almost

  16. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  17. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  18. Elicitation support requirements of multi-expertise teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bitter-Rijpkema, M.; Martens, R.L.; Jochems, W.M.G.

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are more and more used in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that there exist differences between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach

  19. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  20. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

  1. Constructive Preference Elicitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Dragone

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available When faced with large or complex decision problems, human decision makers (DM can make costly mistakes, due to inherent limitations of their memory, attention, and knowledge. Preference elicitation tools assist the decision maker in overcoming these limitations. They do so by interactively learning the DM’s preferences through appropriately chosen queries and suggesting high-quality outcomes based on the preference estimates. Most state-of-the-art techniques, however, fail in constructive settings, where the goal is to synthesize a custom or entirely novel configuration rather than choosing the best option among a given set of candidates. Many wide-spread problems are constructive in nature: customizing composite goods such as cars and computers, bundling products, recommending touristic travel plans, designing apartments, buildings, or urban layouts, etc. In these settings, the full set of outcomes is humongous and can not be explicitly enumerated, and the solution must be synthesized via constrained optimization. In this article, we describe recent approaches especially designed for constructive problems, outlining the underlying ideas and their differences as well as their limitations. In presenting them, we especially focus on novel issues that the constructive setting brings forth, such as how to deal with sparsity of the DM’s preferences, how to properly frame the interaction, and how to achieve efficient synthesis of custom instances.

  2. A framework for characterizing usability requirements elicitation and analysis methodologies (UREAM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trienekens, J.J.M.; Kusters, R.J.; Mannaert, H.

    2012-01-01

    Dedicated methodologies for the elicitation and analysis of usability requirements have been proposed in literature, usually developed by usability experts. The usability of these approaches by non-expert software engineers is not obvious. In this paper, the objective is to support developers and

  3. Patient Health Goals Elicited During Home Care Admission: A Categorization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sockolow, Paulina; Radhakrishnan, Kavita; Chou, Edgar Y; Wojciechowicz, Christine

    2017-11-01

    Home care agencies are initiating "patient health goal elicitation" activities as part of home care admission planning. We categorized elicited goals and identified "clinically informative" goals at a home care agency. We examined patient goals that admitting clinicians documented in the point-of-care electronic health record; conducted content analysis on patient goal data to develop a coding scheme; grouped goal themes into codes; assigned codes to each goal; and identified goals that were in the patient voice. Of the 1,763 patient records, 16% lacked a goal; only 15 goals were in a patient's voice. Nurse and physician experts identified 12 of the 20 codes as clinically important accounting for 82% of goal occurrences. The most frequent goal documented was safety/falls (23%). Training and consistent communication of the intent and operationalization of patient goal elicitation may address the absence of patient voice and the less than universal recording of home care patients' goals.

  4. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

  5. Elicitation of ostomy pouch preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnichsen, Ole

    2011-01-01

    Background: Previous studies about patients who have undergone ostomy surgery commonly address the issues of the surgery, complications, preoperative counseling, quality of life, and psychosocial changes following surgery. Only a limited number of studies deal with how technical improvements...... in stoma care would affect patients and, to the author's knowledge, the present study is the first to elicit preferences for potential improvements in ostomy pouches in the form of monetary values. Objective: This article examines and measures Swedish patients' preferences for potential improvements...... in ostomy pouch attributes. The theory, study design, elicitation procedure, and resulting preference structure of the sample is described. Methods: A discrete-choice experiment (DCE) was used to elicit preferences. Respondents were asked to choose between alternatives in choice sets, in which each...

  6. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  7. USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

  8. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  9. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  10. Elicitation threshold of cobalt chloride

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Louise A; Johansen, Jeanne D; Voelund, Aage

    2016-01-01

    : On the basis of five included studies, the ED10 values of aqueous cobalt chloride ranged between 0.0663 and 1.95 µg cobalt/cm(2), corresponding to 30.8-259 ppm. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis provides an overview of the doses of cobalt that are required to elicit allergic cobalt contactdermatitis in sensitized...

  11. Knowledge acquisition in ecological poduct design: the effects of computer-mediated communication and elicitation method

    OpenAIRE

    Sauer, J.; Schramme, S.; Rüttinger, B.

    2000-01-01

    This article presents a study that examines multiple effects of using different means of computer-mediated communication and knowledge elicitation methods during a product design process. The experimental task involved a typical scenario in product design, in which a knowledge engineer consults two experts to generate knowledge about a design issue. Employing a 3x2 between-subjects design, three conference types (face-to-face, computer, multivedia) and two knowledge elicitation methods (struc...

  12. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  13. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  14. Statistical modeling for degradation data

    CERN Document Server

    Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.

  15. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  16. Emotion Eliciting in Affective Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lai, Yoke Chin

    2014-01-01

    A successful product needs the designer’s conceptual model congruent with the user’s mental model. The fundamental affective design principle also applies to assistive product design. Eliciting effectively the user’s mental model has been a big challenge for most novice designers. This paper outl...... with 3D digital prototype as emotion stimulus. To form a closed loop reflective model, the emotion response from the user is assessed with an emotion assessment tool. Emotion ontology is established to form the backbone of the emotion assessment tool....

  17. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  18. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  19. Eliciting Spill: A methodological note

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvita Nathaniel, Ph.D.

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Classic grounded theory is an inductive process that focuses on the experiences and perceptions of research participants (Glaser, 1978, 1998. Although grounded theorists may utilize other types of data, most are likely to gather information through qualitative interviews. The theorist seeks to understand what is going on as people resolve their main concern in a given substantive area. People know what is important to them and most want to tell their stories. They feel encouraged to talk when they recognize that their stories are valued. Once the informant realizes that he or she is being heard, the story flows. This is what Glaser refers to as “spill.” When this occurs, the theorist becomes a vessel to receive the story. As Glaser describes it, “The researcher will become a ‘big ear’ to pour into incessantly” (1998, p. 124. But, as easy as this seems, the researcher must overcome certain positivist tendencies to allow this to happen. Rather than asking a list of pre-planned questions, the grounded theorist will try to develop one question that will trigger the telling of a story. Eliciting spill requires a deliberate process that employs a deep understanding of the fundamentals of classic grounded theory. Derived from Glaser’s writings, the following are suggestions intended to help the novice grounded theorist to elicit spill.

  20. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  1. Component aging evaluation with expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiesemann, J.S.; Maguire, H.T. Jr.

    1988-01-01

    The age degradation of components involves a complex relationship between a variety of variables. These relationships are typically modeled using probabilistic and deterministic analyses. These methods depend upon a formal understanding of the underlying degradation mechanisms and a database of experience which allows statistical analyses to extract numerical trends. At present, not all age degradation mechanisms are adequately modeled and available data for age degradation is in most cases insufficient. In addition, these methods tend to focus upon answers to isolated questions (e.g., What is the component failure rate?) rather than the more pertinent questions concerning operations and maintenance (e.g., should the component be replaced at the next outage). Fortunately, knowledge in the form of personal experience does exist which allows plant personnel to make decisions concerning operations and maintenance. This knowledge can be modeled using expert systems. This paper discusses CAGES (Component Aging Expert System). It combines expert rules (heuristics), probabilistic models, and deterministic models to make evaluations of component aging; predict the implications for component life extension, operational readiness, maintenance effectiveness, and safety, and make recommendations for maintenance and operation

  2. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  3. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  4. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  5. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  6. A method for using expert judgement in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

    1997-03-01

    The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

  7. Elicited Imitation for Brazilian Portuguese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lonsdale, Deryle W.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Elicited imitation (EI is an approach to measuring oral proficiency that consists of having test takers hear a sentence and repeat the sentence exactly as they heard it. Though indirect in nature, EI has successfully shown to correlate with previously established oral proficiency examinations, such as the Oral Proficiency Interview (OPI (Lonsdale and Christensen 2014, Matsushita and Lonsdale 2014, Millard 2011, Thompson 2013. This paper discusses the development, administration, and evaluation of an EI test for the Brazilian Portuguese language. We first discuss the relevant background of oral proficiency examination and EI. After presenting the pertinent research questions, we explain the methodology used to develop the EI test, recruit participants, and administer the test. We present the results and analysis and then summarize the findings, limitations, and possible future work

  8. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  9. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-08

    ... GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION [Docket 2010-0005; Sequence 14] Draft Concept for Government-Wide... from the public on a draft concept for next-generation citizen consultation, namely a government- wide..., 2011. Respondents are invited to provide comments about or edits directly to the draft of the concept...

  10. Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

  11. Ecosystem degradation in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, B.N.

    1990-01-01

    Environmental and ecosystem studies have assumed greater relevance in the last decade of the twentieth century than even before. The urban settlements are becoming over-crowded and industries are increasingly polluting the air, water and sound in our larger metropolises. Degradation of different types of ecosystem are discussed in this book, Ecosystem Degradation in India. The book has been divided into seven chapters: Introduction, Coastal and Delta Ecosystem, River Basin Ecosystem, Mountain Ecosystem, Forest Ecosystem, Urban Ecosystem and the last chapter deals with the Environmental Problems and Planning. In the introduction the environmental and ecosystem degradation problems in India is highlighted as a whole while in other chapters mostly case studies by experts who know their respective terrain very intimately are included. The case study papers cover most part of India and deal with local problems, stretching from east coast to west coast and from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. (author)

  12. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - 'expert elicitation.' This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal

  13. Needs Elicitation for Novel Pervasive Healthcare Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorpe, Julia Rosemary; Forchhammer, B. H.; Maier, Anja

    2016-01-01

    for pervasive healthcare technology, in which established methods for engaging users to elicit their needs can be difficult or even impossible to apply. In this paper we document our needs elicitation process in a relevant example as a method story, and present our findings and reflections on this as the key...

  14. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  15. Requirements Elicitation Problems: A Literature Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bill Davey

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Requirements elicitation is the process through which analysts determine the software requirements of stakeholders. Requirements elicitation is seldom well done, and an inaccurate or incomplete understanding of user requirements has led to the downfall of many software projects. This paper proposes a classification of problem types that occur in requirements elicitation. The classification has been derived from a literature analysis. Papers reporting on techniques for improving requirements elicitation practice were examined for the problem the technique was designed to address. In each classification the most recent or prominent techniques for ameliorating the problems are presented. The classification allows the requirements engineer to be sensitive to problems as they arise and the educator to structure delivery of requirements elicitation training.

  16. Waste disposal experts meet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1959-01-15

    Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

  17. Impact of Requirements Elicitation Processes on Success of Information System Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bormane Līga

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Requirements articulating user needs and corresponding to enterprise business processes are a key to successful implementation of information system development projects. However, the parties involved in projects frequently are not able to agree on a common development vision and have difficulties expressing their needs. Several industry experts have acknowledged that requirements elicitation is one of the most difficult tasks in development projects. This study investigates the impact of requirements elicitation processes on project outcomes depending on the applied project development methodology.

  18. Solving black box computation problems using expert knowledge theory and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, Jane M.; McNamara, Laura A.

    2004-01-01

    The challenge problems for the Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop at Sandia National Laboratories provide common ground for comparing different mathematical theories of uncertainty, referred to as General Information Theories (GITs). These problems also present the opportunity to discuss the use of expert knowledge as an important constituent of uncertainty quantification. More specifically, how do the principles and methods of eliciting and analyzing expert knowledge apply to these problems and similar ones encountered in complex technical problem solving and decision making? We will address this question, demonstrating how the elicitation issues and the knowledge that experts provide can be used to assess the uncertainty in outputs that emerge from a black box model or computational code represented by the challenge problems. In our experience, the rich collection of GITs provides an opportunity to capture the experts' knowledge and associated uncertainties consistent with their thinking, problem solving, and problem representation. The elicitation process is rightly treated as part of an overall analytical approach, and the information elicited is not simply a source of data. In this paper, we detail how the elicitation process itself impacts the analyst's ability to represent, aggregate, and propagate uncertainty, as well as how to interpret uncertainties in outputs. While this approach does not advocate a specific GIT, answers under uncertainty do result from the elicitation

  19. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  20. Expert Systems Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

  1. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  2. Expert Cold Structure Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  3. How should an electric vehicle sound? User and expert perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petiot, Jean-François; Kristensen, Bjørn G.; Maier, Anja

    2013-01-01

    for electric vehicles were investigated in an experimental setting with a total of 40 participants, 34 novice users and six sound experts. Word association was used to elicit emotional reactions to the different sounds. Novice users employ more characterrelated terms to describe the sounds, while experts use...... more composition-based words. Analysis of variance and conjoint analysis was used to analyze participants’ assessments of sounds according to two semantic scales (pleasantness and appropriateness). Considerable inter-individual differences in the ratings of pleasantness and appropriateness indicate...

  4. Eliciting Information on Sensitive Matters Without Inviting ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Eliciting Information on Sensitive Matters. Without Inviting Respondents' ... methods based on Randomized Response tech- niques. ... while collecting data on some sensitive issues are well ..... Suppose there is an association of professionals.

  5. Vulnerability of bridges to scour:Insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

    OpenAIRE

    Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-01-01

    Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the predi...

  6. Policy relevant results from an expert elicitation on the health risks of phthalates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zimmer, K.E.; Gutleb, A.C.; Ravnum, S.; Krayer von Krauss, M.; Murk, A.J.; Ropstad, E.; Skaare, J.U.; Eriksen, G.S.; Lyche, J.L.; Koppe, J.G.; Magnanti, B.; Yang, A.; Keune, H.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The EU 6th Framework Program (FP)-funded Health and Environment Network (HENVINET) aimed to support informed policy making by facilitating the availability of relevant knowledge on different environmental health issues. An approach was developed by which scientific agreement,

  7. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services

  8. Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knol, A.B.; de Hartog, J.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/288354850; Boogaard, H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314406522; Slottje, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/299345351; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489; Lebret, E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/071318917; Cassee, F.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/143038990; Wardekker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644398; Ayres, J.G.; Borm, P.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Donaldson, K.; Forastiere, F.; Holgate, S.T.; Kreyling, W.; Nemery, B.; Pekkanen, J.; Stone, V.; Wichmann, H.E.; Hoek, G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069553475

    2009-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM) has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from

  9. Eliciting conditional and unconditional rank correlations from conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, O.; Kurowicka, D.; Roelen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Causes of uncertainties may be interrelated and may introduce dependencies. Ignoring these dependencies may lead to large errors. A number of graphical models in probability theory such as dependence trees, vines and (continuous) Bayesian belief nets [Cooke RM. Markov and entropy properties of tree and vine-dependent variables. In: Proceedings of the ASA section on Bayesian statistical science, 1997; Kurowicka D, Cooke RM. Distribution-free continuous Bayesian belief nets. In: Proceedings of mathematical methods in reliability conference, 2004; Bedford TJ, Cooke RM. Vines-a new graphical model for dependent random variables. Ann Stat 2002; 30(4):1031-68; Kurowicka D, Cooke RM. Uncertainty analysis with high dimensional dependence modelling. New York: Wiley; 2006; Hanea AM, et al. Hybrid methods for quantifying and analyzing Bayesian belief nets. In: Proceedings of the 2005 ENBIS5 conference, 2005; Shachter RD, Kenley CR. Gaussian influence diagrams. Manage Sci 1998; 35(5) .] have been developed to capture dependencies between random variables. The input for these models are various marginal distributions and dependence information, usually in the form of conditional rank correlations. Often expert elicitation is required. This paper focuses on dependence representation, and dependence elicitation. The techniques presented are illustrated with an application from aviation safety

  10. Expert PLSQL Practices

    CERN Document Server

    Beresniewicz, John

    2011-01-01

    Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

  11. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  12. Expert tool use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

  13. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  14. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  15. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  16. The unconvincing product - Consumer versus expert hazard identification: A mental models study of novel foods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit; Scholderer, Joachim

    and experts understanding of benefits and risks associated with three Novel foods (a potato, rice and functional food ingredients) using a relatively new methodology for the study of risk perception called Mental models. Mental models focus on the way people conceptualise hazardous processes and allows...... researchers to pit a normative analysis (expert mental models) against a descriptive analysis (consumer mental models). Expert models were elicited by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure from altogether 24 international experts and consumers models from in-dept interviews with Danish consumers. The results...... revealed that consumers´ and experts' mental models differed in connection to scope. Experts focused on the types of hazards for which risk assessments can be conducted under current legal frameworks whereas consumers were concerned about issues that lay outside the scope of current legislation. Experts...

  17. Expert Oracle Exadata

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua

  18. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  19. Oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism: Expert opinion versus current practice: Combined results of a systematic review, expert panel opinion and an international survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, F. A.; Schreiber, K.; Stach, K.; Ageno, W.; Middeldorp, S.; Eichinger, S.; Delluc, A.; Blondon, M.; Ay, C.

    2017-01-01

    The optimal management of oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is largely unknown. We aimed to elicit expert opinion and compare that to current practice as assessed by a world-wide international web-based survey among physicians. 10

  20. [Deontology of the medical expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raszeja, S

    1995-09-01

    The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

  1. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  2. Responsibilities in the Usability Requirements Elicitation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianella Aveledo

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Like any other software system quality attribute, usability places requirements on software components. In particular, it has been demonstrated that certain usability features have a direct impact throughout the software process. This paper details an approach that looks at how to deal with certain usability features in the early software development stages. In particular, we consider usability features as functional usability requirements using patterns that have been termed usability patterns to elicit requirements. Additionally, we clearly establish the responsibilities of all the players at the usability requirements elicitation stage.

  3. Expert system and knowledge acquisition technology in ENEA program on nuclear and conventional energy production processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balducelli, C.; Federico, A.; Sapia, R.Di.

    1990-01-01

    On the basis of some experiences performed in ENEA (Thermal Reactor Department) revelant to the project and development of experts systems to support the operator activities in nuclear and conventional energy production processes, the paper tries to point out the outline of a 'generic' plant operator cognitive structure. For this type of expert systems an implementation strategy and a knowledge elicitation methodology are proposed with the intention of giving a support to the knowledge engineer work

  4. Eliciting illegal migration rates through list randomization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McKenzie, D.; Siegel, M.

    2013-01-01

    Most migration surveys do not ask about the legal status of migrants due to concerns about the sensitivity of this question. List randomization is a technique that has been used in a number of other social science applications to elicit sensitive information. We trial this technique by adding it to

  5. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  6. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

  7. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  8. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  9. A comparison of five elicitation techniques for elicitation of attributes of low involvement products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino; Nielsen, Niels Asger

    1999-01-01

    of dimensions directed from theories of consumer buying behaviour. Although a number of differences between the techniques are identified in the study, the main findings are that the robustness of the different techniques for attribute elicitation is considerable Udgivelsesdato: JUN......The critical first step for most instruments used in analysing consumer choice and motivation is the identification of product attributes which are important to the consumer and for which there are differences among the available product alternatives. A number of techniques, ranging from...... the complex elicitation of idiosyncratic attributes or simpler picking procedures, has been developed to elicitate such attributes. The purpose of the study presented here is to com-pare attributes of a low involvement product, viz. vegetable oil, elicited by five different techniques on a number...

  10. The First Expert CAI System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    1984-01-01

    The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

  11. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  13. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  14. Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

    2018-04-01

    We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

  15. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  16. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  17. Eliciting nicotine craving with virtual smoking cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamito, Pedro; Oliveira, Jorge; Baptista, André; Morais, Diogo; Lopes, Paulo; Rosa, Pedro; Santos, Nuno; Brito, Rodrigo

    2014-08-01

    Craving is a strong desire to consume that emerges in every case of substance addiction. Previous studies have shown that eliciting craving with an exposure cues protocol can be a useful option for the treatment of nicotine dependence. Thus, the main goal of this study was to develop a virtual platform in order to induce craving in smokers. Fifty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to two different virtual environments: high arousal contextual cues and low arousal contextual cues scenarios (17 smokers with low nicotine dependency were excluded). An eye-tracker system was used to evaluate attention toward these cues. Eye fixation on smoking-related cues differed between smokers and nonsmokers, indicating that smokers focused more often on smoking-related cues than nonsmokers. Self-reports of craving are in agreement with these results and suggest a significant increase in craving after exposure to smoking cues. In sum, these data support the use of virtual environments for eliciting craving.

  18. Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

    1989-01-01

    In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

  19. Law for nuclear experts only

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

    1980-02-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

  20. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  1. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  2. Long-term degradation of organic polymers under conditions found in deep repositories for low and intermediate-level wastes; Langzeit-Degradation von organischen Polymeren unter SMA-Tiefenlagerbedingungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warthmann, R.; Mosberger, L.; Baier, U.

    2013-06-15

    On behalf of Nagra, the Environmental Biotechnology Section of the Zürich University of Applied Sciences in Wädenswil investigated the potential for microbiological degradation of organic polymers under the conditions found in a deep geological repository for low- and intermediate-level waste (L/ILW). The existing scientific literature on the topic was analysed, some thermodynamic calculations carried out and input was elicited from internationally recognised experts in the field. The study was restricted to a few substances which, in terms of mass, are most significant in the Swiss L/ILW inventory; these are polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), other plastics and bitumen. There were no clear indications in the literature that the polymer structure of synthetic polymers is biodegraded under anoxic conditions. However, functional groups of ion exchangers and plasticizers in plastics are considered to be readily available and biodegradable. The greatest obstacle to biological degradation of synthetic polymers is depolymerisation to produce labile monomers. As energy is generally required for such breakdown, the chances of this process taking place outside the cells are very low. In so far as they are present, monomers are, in principle, anaerobically biodegradable. Thermodynamic considerations indicate that degradation of synthetic polymers under repository conditions is theoretically possible. However, the degradation of polystyrene is very close to thermodynamic equilibrium and the usable energy for microorganisms would barely be sufficient. Under high H2 partial pressures, it is predicted that there will be a thermodynamic inhibition of anaerobic degradation, as certain interim steps in degradation are endergonic. The starting conditions for microbial growth in a deep repository are unfavourable in terms of availability of water and prevailing pH values. Practically no known microorganisms can tolerate the combination of these conditions; most known

  3. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  4. Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggermont, G.

    2000-01-01

    As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

  5. Preserving experience through expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

  6. Long-term degradation of organic polymers under conditions found in deep repositories for low and intermediate-level wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warthmann, R.; Mosberger, L.; Baier, U.

    2013-06-01

    On behalf of Nagra, the Environmental Biotechnology Section of the Zürich University of Applied Sciences in Wädenswil investigated the potential for microbiological degradation of organic polymers under the conditions found in a deep geological repository for low- and intermediate-level waste (L/ILW). The existing scientific literature on the topic was analysed, some thermodynamic calculations carried out and input was elicited from internationally recognised experts in the field. The study was restricted to a few substances which, in terms of mass, are most significant in the Swiss L/ILW inventory; these are polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), other plastics and bitumen. There were no clear indications in the literature that the polymer structure of synthetic polymers is biodegraded under anoxic conditions. However, functional groups of ion exchangers and plasticizers in plastics are considered to be readily available and biodegradable. The greatest obstacle to biological degradation of synthetic polymers is depolymerisation to produce labile monomers. As energy is generally required for such breakdown, the chances of this process taking place outside the cells are very low. In so far as they are present, monomers are, in principle, anaerobically biodegradable. Thermodynamic considerations indicate that degradation of synthetic polymers under repository conditions is theoretically possible. However, the degradation of polystyrene is very close to thermodynamic equilibrium and the usable energy for microorganisms would barely be sufficient. Under high H2 partial pressures, it is predicted that there will be a thermodynamic inhibition of anaerobic degradation, as certain interim steps in degradation are endergonic. The starting conditions for microbial growth in a deep repository are unfavourable in terms of availability of water and prevailing pH values. Practically no known microorganisms can tolerate the combination of these conditions; most known

  7. Lessons Learnt from Experts in Design Rationale Knowledge Capture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hall, Mark; Bermell-Garcia, Pablo; Ravindranath, Ranjitun

    2017-01-01

    The focus of this paper is on the use of argumentation models and software tools to support knowledge capture in the design of long-life engineering products. The results of semi-structured interviews with a number of experts in the field are presented, exploring their collective experience...... of knowledge capture and eliciting guidelines for successful implementation of such models and tools. The results of this research may be used as the basis for the design of future tools and techniques for knowledge capture....

  8. Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oraby, Tamer; Tyshenko, Michael G; Westphal, Margit; Darshan, Shalu; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Cashman, Neil; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context.

  9. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  10. Eliciting Perceptual Ground Truth for Image Segmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Hodge, Victoria Jane; Eakins, John; Austin, Jim

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate human visual perception and establish a body of ground truth data elicited from human visual studies. We aim to build on the formative work of Ren, Eakins and Briggs who produced an initial ground truth database. Human subjects were asked to draw and rank their perceptions of the parts of a series of figurative images. These rankings were then used to score the perceptions, identify the preferred human breakdowns and thus allow us to induce perceptual rules for h...

  11. An expert system for microbiologically influenced corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, C.E.; Licina, G.J.

    1991-01-01

    Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a damage mechanism that can cause serious degradation of service water system components. MIC can be particularly insidious since damage can occur very quickly, even in environments otherwise resistant to corrosion. Plant operations or maintenance personnel or system engineers typically do not have sufficient expertise to predict when and where MIC may occur or what methods of treatment are effective. An expert system (MICPro) has been devised which provides a tool for utilities to predict where MIC will occur, which systems or components are most susceptible, how operating parameters may affect vulnerability, and how to implement corrective and preventative measures. The system is designed to be simple to use: required inputs are common system parameters and results are presented as numbers from 1 to 10 indicating the likelihood of damage due to the given input. In this paper the structure and operation of the system is described, and future refinements are discussed

  12. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  13. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  14. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

  15. Introducing Managers to Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Paul N.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Describes a short course to expose managers to expert systems, consisting of (1) introductory lecture; (2) supervised computer tutorial; (3) lecture and discussion about knowledge structuring and modeling; and (4) small group work on a case study using computers. (SK)

  16. Expert system in PNC, 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubota, Koji

    1990-01-01

    The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

  17. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  18. Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dahlman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

  19. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  20. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  1. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  2. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  3. Expert surgical consensus for prenatal counseling using the Delphi method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Loren; Jackson, Jordan; Miller, Kristen; Kowalski, Rebecca; Kolm, Paul; Luks, Francois I

    2017-11-28

    Pediatric surgeons frequently offer prenatal consultation for congenital pulmonary airway malformation (CPAM) and congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH); however, there is no evidence-based consensus to guide prenatal decision making and counseling for these conditions. Eliciting feedback from experts is integral to defining best practice regarding prenatal counseling and intervention. A Delphi consensus process was undertaken using a panel of pediatric surgeons identified as experts in fetal therapy to address current limitations. Areas of discrepancy in the literature on CPAM and CDH were identified and used to generate a list of content and intervention questions. Experts were invited to participate in an online Delphi survey. Items that did not reach first-round consensus were broken down into additional questions, and consensus was achieved in the second round. Fifty-four surgeons (69%) responded to at least one of the two survey rounds. During round one, consensus was reached on 54 of 89 survey questions (61%), and 45 new questions were developed. During round two, consensus was reached on 53 of 60 survey questions (88%). We determined expert consensus to establish guidelines regarding perinatal management of CPAM and CDH. Our results can help educate pediatric surgeons participating in perinatal care of these patients. V. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Expert assessment of advanced power sources. Contract report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, C.L.

    2007-07-01

    Although DRDC published an exhaustive technical report (in August 2001) on technology trends in advanced power sources projected out to the year 2020, the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 (and the consequent, augmented and more broadly-based defence and national security posture adopted by the CF/DND), together with rapid developments in power source technologies over the past five years, internationally, prompted DRDC to update the 2001 report, on a selected number of power source technologies or applications and to provide further guidance to DRDC's Advanced Power Source R and D program. Eight wide-ranging, power source technologies or applications were investigated, using the technique of 'expert elicitation' (that is, using independent experts in the various and diverse technological fields), based on a standardized questionnaire, augmented by the contractor's own expertise (and his overall analysis of the experts' responses) in these diverse areas. In addition, each expert was asked about his/her view on the likely role of nanotechnology in each technological area or application. Following collection and analysis of all the data, the contractor made recommendations on the ability of each power source to meet the future requirements of the CF/DND, taking into account the Technology Readiness Level, for each technology or application

  5. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  6. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  7. Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogerson, Ellen C.; Lambert, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Factor hierarchies have been widely used in the literature to represent the view of an expert of what factors most contribute to reliability or safety. The methods for rating and aggregating the influences across a set of expert-elicited factors to risk or reliability are well known as multiple criteria decision analysis. This paper describes a method for distinguishing levels of risk across a set of locations via the use of multiple factor hierarchies. The method avoids averaging across experts and is thus useful for situations where experts disagree and where an absence of expert consensus on the causative or contributing factors is important information for risk management. A case study demonstrates using seven expert perspectives on the airport-specific factors that can contribute to runway incursions. The results are described for eighty towered airports in the US. The expert perspectives include differing relative emphases across the following set of factors: airport geometry, operations, weather, geography, and days since last safety review. Future work is suggested to include human factors issues as pilot-and-controller communications styles at airports. - Highlights: ► We examine influential factors in seven expert perspectives on the problem domain. ► We assess eighty US airports with qualitative measurement scales for each risk factor. ► Results show robustness and sensitivity of the risk index to expert perspective. ► We examine factors of several types including runway geometry, operations, weather, and geography.

  8. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Wald, D.J.; Perkins, D.; Aspinall, W.P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.; Deodatis, George; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  9. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  10. Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

  11. An expert system for steam generator maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remond, A.

    1988-01-01

    The tube bundles in PWR steam generators are, by far, the major source of problems whether they are due to primary and secondary side corrosion mechanisms or to tube vibration-induced wear at tube support locations. Because of differences in SG operating, materials, and fabrication processes, the damage may differ from steam generator to steam generator. MPGV, an expert system for steam generator maintenance uses all steam generator data containing data on materials, fabrication processes, inservice inspection, and water chemistry. It has access to operational data for individual steam generators and contains models of possible degradation mechanisms. The objectives of the system are: · Diagnosing the most probable degradation mechanism or mechanisms by reviewing the entire steam generator history. · Identifying the tubes most exposed to future damage and evaluating the urgency of repair by simulating the probable development of the problem in time. · Establishing the appropriate preventive actions such as repair, inspection or other measures and establishing an action schedule. The system is intended for utilities either for individual plants before each inspection outage or any time an incident occurs or for a set of plants through a central MPGV center. (author)

  12. Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M Granger; Frame, David J; Keith, David W

    2010-07-13

    There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked "cloud radiative feedbacks" as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm(-2) in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a "basic state change" as > or =0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8-1.8 degrees C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 degrees C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the "likely" range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.

  13. Cellular requirements for cutaneous sensitivity elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, I

    1985-01-01

    The role of glass-adherent cells in cutaneous sensitivity (CS) elicitation has been analyzed in this study. CS responses have been revealed to be mediated by at least two distinct subsets of genetically restricted T cells: I-restricted 'DTH-like' T cells and K/D-restricted 'CTL-like' T cells. Both T-cell responses require I-A-positive glass-adherent cell populations, which lack T-cell markers, to manifest their activities. The role of the adherent cells is different in the 'DTH-like' responses and the 'CTL-like' responses. The disparities between the present results and previous contentions are discussed in this paper.

  14. Eliciting promises from children reduces cheating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyman, Gail D; Fu, Genyue; Lin, Jianyan; Qian, Miao K; Lee, Kang

    2015-11-01

    Widespread cheating can undermine rules that are necessary for maintaining social order. Preventing cheating can be a challenge, especially with regard to children, who as a result of their limited executive function skills may have particular difficulty with resisting temptation to cheat. We examined one approach designed to help children resist this temptation: eliciting a verbal commitment to not cheat. We tested 4- to 7-year-olds (total N = 330) and found that starting at 5 years of age, a verbal commitment to not cheat led to a substantial reduction in cheating. The results suggest that verbal commitments can be used to help children overcome temptations and comply with rules. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Eliciting consumer preferences for health plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booske, B C; Sainfort, F; Hundt, A S

    1999-10-01

    To examine (1) what people say is important to them in choosing a health plan; (2) the effect, if any, that giving health plan information has on what people say is important to them; and (3) the effect of preference elicitation methods on what people say is important. A random sample of 201 Wisconsin state employees who participated in a health plan choice experiment during the 1995 open enrollment period. We designed a computer system to guide subjects through the review of information about health plan options. The system began by eliciting the stated preferences of the subjects before they viewed the information, at time 0. Subjects were given an opportunity to revise their preference structures first after viewing summary information about four health plans (time 1) and then after viewing more extensive, detailed information about the same options (time 2). At time 2, these individuals were also asked to rate the relative importance of a predefined list of health plan features presented to them. Data were collected on the number of attributes listed at each point in time and the importance weightings assigned to each attribute. In addition, each item on the attribute list was content analyzed. The provision of information changes the preference structures of individuals. Costs (price) and coverage dominated the attributes cited both before and after looking at health plan information. When presented with information on costs, quality, and how plans work, many of these relatively well educated consumers revised their preference structures; yet coverage and costs remained the primary cited attributes. Although efforts to provide health plan information should continue, decisions on the information to provide and on making it available are not enough. Individuals need help in understanding, processing, and using the information to construct their preferences and make better decisions.

  16. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

  17. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

  18. Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muggleton, S.H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

  19. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  20. Expert system application education project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  1. Expert systems in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud-Salis, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

  2. Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

    1984-01-01

    There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

  3. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  4. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  5. Expert systems as decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

  6. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  7. A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW ABOUT SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS ELICITATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LENIS R. WONG

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Requirements Elicitation is recognized as one of the most important activity in software development process as it has direct impact on its success. Although there are many proposals for improving this task, still there are issues which have to be solved. This paper aims to identify the current status of the latest researches related to software requirements elicitation through general framework for literature review, in order to answer the following research questions: Q1 What aspects have been covered by different proposal of requirements elicitation? Q2 What activities of the requirements elicitation process have been covered? And Q3 What factors influence on requirements elicitation and how? A cross-analysis of the outcome was performed. One of the results showed that requirements elicitation process needs improvements.

  8. Elicitation of hypersensitive responses in Nicotiana glutinosa by the suppressor of RNA silencing protein P0 from poleroviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ken-Der; Empleo, Roman; Nguyen, Tan Tri V; Moffett, Peter; Sacco, Melanie Ann

    2015-06-01

    Plant disease resistance (R) proteins that confer resistance to viruses recognize viral gene products with diverse functions, including viral suppressors of RNA silencing (VSRs). The P0 protein from poleroviruses is a VSR that targets the ARGONAUTE1 (AGO1) protein for degradation, thereby disrupting RNA silencing and antiviral defences. Here, we report resistance against poleroviruses in Nicotiana glutinosa directed against Turnip yellows virus (TuYV) and Potato leafroll virus (PLRV). The P0 proteins from TuYV (P0(T) (u) ), PLRV (P0(PL) ) and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (P0(CA) ) were found to elicit a hypersensitive response (HR) in N. glutinosa accession TW59, whereas other accessions recognized P0(PL) only. Genetic analysis showed that recognition of P0(T) (u) by a resistance gene designated RPO1 (Resistance to POleroviruses 1) is inherited as a dominant allele. Expression of P0 from a Potato virus X (PVX) expression vector transferred recognition to the recombinant virus on plants expressing RPO1, supporting P0 as the unique Polerovirus factor eliciting resistance. The induction of HR required a functional P0 protein, as P0(T) (u) mutants with substitutions in the F-box motif that abolished VSR activity were unable to elicit HR. We surmised that the broad P0 recognition seen in TW59 and the requirement for the F-box protein motif could indicate detection of P0-induced AGO1 degradation and disruption of RNA silencing; however, other viral silencing suppressors, including the PVX P25 that also causes AGO1 degradation, failed to elicit HR in N. glutinosa. Investigation of P0 elicitation of RPO1 could provide insight into P0 activities within the cell that trigger resistance. © 2014 BSPP AND JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD.

  9. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-01-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1

  10. Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

  11. QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perre, M.

    1991-01-01

    TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong

  12. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C++, and Microsoft C/C++ compilers. The personal edition is licensed for educational, research, and hobby use. Applications created with RT -Expert personal edition are not licensed for commercial purposes. Professional editions are available for commercial applications using DOS, Windows, and. Unix environments.

  13. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  14. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  15. Expert incentives: cure versus prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jaegher, K.

    This paper distinguishes between two scenarios for the expert-client encounter. In the cure scenario, the client does not know whether a loss can be recovered. In the prevention scenario, the client faces a threat but does not know whether this threat is real enough to justify preventive action. The

  16. The role of the expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeesters, P.

    1998-01-01

    The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)

  17. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  18. Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daud, A.H.

    1996-01-01

    This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

  19. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  20. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

    2010-09-30

    Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

  1. The potential for using visual elicitation in understanding preschool ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We explore the use of video and photo elicitation in a research study undertaken to understand the way in which preschool teachers perceive and construct their provision of children's educational experiences. We explore the value of visually elicited interviews based on video footage and photographs captured during ...

  2. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  3. Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

    2007-03-01

    Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge.

  4. Expert Systems in Government Administration

    OpenAIRE

    Weintraub, Joseph

    1989-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence is solving more and more real world problems, but penetration into the complexities of government administration has been minimal. The author suggests that combining expert system technology with conventional procedural computer systems can lead to substantial efficiencies. Business rules can be removed from business-oriented computer systems and stored in a separate but integrated knowledge base, where maintenance will be centralized. Fourteen specific practical appli...

  5. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  6. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  8. Acquisition of Expert/Non-Expert Vocabulary from Reformulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.

  9. A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

  10. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  11. On the balanced blending of formally structured and simplified approaches for utilizing judgments of experts in the assessment of uncertain issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon; Ha, Jae Joo

    2003-01-01

    Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues

  12. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  13. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  14. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-06

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

  15. Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Levermann, A.; Kuhlbrodt, T.; Rahmstorf, S.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

  16. Expert Oracle RAC 12c

    CERN Document Server

    Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo

  17. Expert Oracle GoldenGate

    CERN Document Server

    Prusinski, Ben; Chung, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Expert Oracle GoldenGate is a hands-on guide to creating and managing complex data replication environments using the latest in database replication technology from Oracle. GoldenGate is the future in replication technology from Oracle, and aims to be best-of-breed. GoldenGate supports homogeneous replication between Oracle databases. It supports heterogeneous replication involving other brands such as Microsoft SQL Server and IBM DB2 Universal Server. GoldenGate is high-speed, bidirectional, highly-parallelized, and makes only a light impact on the performance of databases involved in replica

  18. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  19. Expert opinion on climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

  20. Consumer versus expert hazard identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

  1. Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

    2012-12-01

    To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

  2. An expert system for uranium exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

    1989-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

  3. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  4. The Different Inhibition of Return (IOR Effects of Emergency Managerial Experts and Novices: An Event-Related Potentials Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Cao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Inhibition of return (IOR is an important effect of attention. However, the IOR of emergency managerial experts is unknown. By employing emergency and natural scene pictures in expert-novice paradigm, the present study explored the neural activity underlying the IOR effects for emergency managerial experts and novices. In behavioral results, there were no differences of IOR effects between novices and emergency managerial experts, while the event-related potentials (ERPs results were different between novices and experts. In Experiment 1 (novice group, ERPs results showed no any IOR was robust at both stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA of 200 ms and 400 ms. In Experiment 2 (expert group, ERPs results showed an enhanced N2 at SOA of 200 ms and attenuated P3 at cued location in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions than uncued location at SOA of 200 ms. The findings of the two experiments showed that, relative to the novices, IOR for the emergency managerial experts was robust, and dominated in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions, suggesting more flexible attentional processing and higher visual search efficiency of the emergency managerial experts. The findings indicate that the P3, possible N2, over the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions are the biological indicators for IOR elicited by post-cued emergency pictures for emergency managerial experts.

  5. Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

  6. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  7. Expert systems in process control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittig, T.

    1987-01-01

    To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

  8. Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheroghe Popescu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

  9. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

  10. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Business Administration & Economics Div.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  11. Effects of competitive pressure on expert performance: underlying psychological, physiological, and kinematic mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Andrew; Kavussanu, Maria; McIntyre, David; Boardley, Ian D; Ring, Christopher

    2011-08-01

    Although it is well established that performance is influenced by competitive pressure, our understanding of the mechanisms which underlie the pressure-performance relationship is limited. The current experiment examined mediators of the relationship between competitive pressure and motor skill performance of experts. Psychological, physiological, and kinematic responses to three levels of competitive pressure were measured in 50 expert golfers, during a golf putting task. Elevated competitive pressure increased putting accuracy, anxiety, effort, and heart rate, but decreased grip force. Quadratic effects of pressure were noted for self-reported conscious processing and impact velocity. Mediation analyses revealed that effort and heart rate partially mediated improved performance. The findings indicate that competitive pressure elicits effects on expert performance through both psychological and physiological pathways. Copyright © 2011 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  12. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

  13. Expert system validation in prolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  14. PABRE-Proj: applying patterns in requirements elicitation

    OpenAIRE

    Palomares Bonache, Cristina; Quer Bosor, Maria Carme; Franch Gutiérrez, Javier

    2013-01-01

    Software requirement patterns have been proposed as a type of artifact for fostering requirements reuse. In this paper, we present PABRE-Proj, a tool aimed at supporting requirements elicitation and specification. Peer Reviewed

  15. The Interview as an Approach to Elicit Requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Marina Iriarte

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In many software projects requirements elicitation is incomplete or inconsistent. One issue that works for this is presented has to be with the requirements engineers use a single method to do it, which can cause a deficiency in the expected results. Among the factors contributing to the success of this stage of the life cycle is an adequate selection of the elicitation technique and other approaches needed. This article describes an experimental study to elicit requirements, in which was applied a combination of methods and techniques, and discusses the advantages of doing it this way. The results obtained allow concluding that to achieve adequate elicitation is necessary to combine several techniques and methods.

  16. Distributed and Collaborative Requirements Elicitation Based on Social Intelligence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wen, Bin; Luo, Z.; Liang, P.

    2012-01-01

    Requirements is the formal expression of user's needs. Also, requirements elicitation is the process of activity focusing on requirements collection. Traditional acquisition methods, such as interview, observation and prototype, are unsuited for the service-oriented software development featuring in

  17. Film clips and narrative text as subjective emotion elicitation techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zupan, Barbra; Babbage, Duncan R

    2017-01-01

    Film clips and narrative text are useful techniques in eliciting emotion in a laboratory setting but have not been examined side-by-side using the same methodology. This study examined the self-identification of emotions elicited by film clip and narrative text stimuli to confirm that selected stimuli appropriately target the intended emotions. Seventy participants viewed 30 film clips, and 40 additional participants read 30 narrative texts. Participants identified the emotion experienced (happy, sad, angry, fearful, neutral-six stimuli each). Eighty-five percent of participants self-identified the target emotion for at least two stimuli for all emotion categories of film clips, except angry (only one) and for all categories of narrative text, except fearful (only one). The most effective angry text was correctly identified 74% of the time. Film clips were more effective in eliciting all target emotions in participants for eliciting the correct emotion (angry), intensity rating (happy, sad), or both (fearful).

  18. The potential for using visual elicitation in understanding preschool ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We explore the use of video and photo elicitation in a research study undertaken to ... system, in the District Centres for Early Childhood Education (DICECE), in Kenya. In this paper ..... photographs and even direct to a hand-held computer”.

  19. A study on the development of a expert system for diagnosing fossil power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baik, Young Min; Jeong, Hee Don; Shin, Eun Ju

    2009-01-01

    In order to analyze the causes of fossil power plant facilities due to a degradation and corrosion, artificial degraded materials composed of the facilities were manufactured. Various experiment were performed based on mechanical test, microstructure observation, hardness test, Electrochemical Potentiokinetic Reactivation test (EPR) and corrosion scale thickness measurement test. The master curves were write out using Larson-Miller parameter to evaluate the degree of degradation with the above diagnosis methods. These data were applied to materials database of fossil power plant diagnosis. Finally expert system on the fossil power plant diagnosis was developed using the master curves and diagnosis algorithms.

  20. Construction of a case for expert judgement of uncertainty in early health effects models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.

    1997-11-01

    The contribution of ECN to a joint study of the European Commission (EC) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in which the uncertainty in risks and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are evaluated, is described. The procedure used to obtain these uncertainties is called expert judgement. In a formal expert judgement procedure a panel of experts has provided quantitative information about the uncertainty in given observables: a quantity that describes an observation concerning the phenomenon of interest, in this paper the relation between dose and health effects, without information or assumptions about any model describing this phenomenon. The observables are defined in a case structure, a questionnaire provided to all experts. ECN has contributed to the selection of the experts for the early health effects panel, and provided assistance for drafting the case structure for this panel. This paper describes the radiological information provided by ECN and the analyses necessary for constructing the case structure. The deliverables of the expert elicitation are uncertainty distributions of the observables requested in the case structure. The results are intended to be unbiased, i.e. it should be applicable to any model describing the relation between dose and health effects. They will be published by the project team in a joint publication of the NRC and the EC. In this way the resulting uncertainty distributions are available for further work in the joint project and available to a more general public. 2 figs., 4 refs

  1. Electrophysiological correlates of aesthetic processing of webpages: a comparison of experts and laypersons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens Bölte

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether design experts or laypersons evaluate webpages differently. Twenty participants, 10 experts and 10 laypersons, judged the aesthetic value of a webpage in an EEG-experiment. Screenshots of 150 webpages, judged as aesthetic or as unaesthetic by another 136 participants, served as stimulus material. Behaviorally, experts and laypersons evaluated unaesthetic webpages similarly, but they differed in their evaluation of aesthetic ones: experts evaluated aesthetic webpages as unaesthetic more often than laypersons did. The ERP-data show main effects of level of expertise and of aesthetic value only. There was no interaction of expertise and aesthetics. In a time-window of 110–130 ms after stimulus onset, aesthetic webpages elicited a more negative EEG-amplitude than unaesthetic webpages. In the same time window, experts had more negative EEG-amplitudes than laypersons. This patterning of results continued until a time window of 600–800 ms in which group and aesthetic differences diminished. An interaction of perceiver characteristics and object properties that several interactionist theories postulate was absent in the EEG-data. Experts seem to process the stimuli in a more thorough manner than laypersons. The early activation differences between aesthetic and unaesthetic webpages is in contrast with some theories of aesthetic processing and has not been reported before.

  2. Green Software Engineering Adaption In Requirement Elicitation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umma Khatuna Jannat

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A recent technology investigates the role of concern in the environment software that is green software system. Now it is widely accepted that the green software can fit all process of software development. It is also suitable for the requirement elicitation process. Now a days software companies have used requirements elicitation techniques in an enormous majority. Because this process plays more and more important roles in software development. At the present time most of the requirements elicitation process is improved by using some techniques and tools. So that the intention of this research suggests to adapt green software engineering for the intention of existing elicitation technique and recommend suitable actions for improvement. This research being involved qualitative data. I used few keywords in my searching procedure then searched IEEE ACM Springer Elsevier Google scholar Scopus and Wiley. Find out articles which published in 2010 until 2016. Finding from the literature review Identify 15 traditional requirement elicitations factors and 23 improvement techniques to convert green engineering. Lastly The paper includes a squat review of the literature a description of the grounded theory and some of the identity issues related finding of the necessity for requirements elicitation improvement techniques.

  3. Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

  4. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  5. Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments.

  6. A study on development of a rule based expert system for steam generator life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jin Kyun

    1994-02-01

    The need of predicting the integrity of the steam generator(SG) tubes and environmental conditions that affect their integrity is growing to secure nuclear power plant(NPP) safety and enhance plant availability. To achieve their objectives it is important to diagnose the integrity of the SG tubes. An expert system called FEMODES(failure mode diagnosis expert system) has been developed for diagnosis of such tube degradation phenomena as denting, intergranular attack(IGA) and stress corrosion cracking(SCC) in the secondary side of the SG. It is possible with use of FEMODES to estimate possibilities of SG tube degradation and diagnosis environmental conditions that influence such tube degradation. The method of certainty factor theory(CFT) and the rule based backward reasoning inference strategy are used to develop FEMODES. The information required for diagnosis is acquired from SG tube degradation experiences of two local reference plants, some limited oversea plants and technical reports/research papers about such tube degradation. Overall results estimated with use of FEMODES are in reasonable agreement with actual SG tube degradation. Some discrepancy observed in several estimated values of SG tube degradation appears to be due to insufficient heuristic knowledge for knowledge data base of FEMODES

  7. Database, expert systems, information retrieval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedele, P.; Grandoni, G.; Mammarella, M.C.

    1989-12-01

    The great debate concerning the Italian high-school reform has induced a ferment of activity among the most interested and sensible of people. This was clearly demonstrated by the course 'Innovazione metodologico-didattica e tecnologie informatiche' organized for the staff of the 'lstituto Professionale L. Einaudi' of Lamezia Terme. The course was an interesting opportunity for discussions and interaction between the world of School and computer technology used in the Research field. This three day course included theoretical and practical lessons, showing computer facilities that could be useful for teaching. During the practical lessons some computer tools were presented from the very simple Electronic Sheets to the more complicated information Retrieval on CD-ROM interactive realizations. The main topics will be discussed later. They are: Modelling, Data Base, Integrated Information Systems, Expert Systems, Information Retrieval. (author)

  8. The useability of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    This talk presents the case that it is the user of an Expert System (ES), and the user alone, who must decide on the acceptability of such a system. Further, the useability of an ES is principally a function of the user interface: if a system takes a long time to learn, it will not be used effectively. Some ES are implemented on computers with command line interfaces. It is shown (via a live demonstration using a computer) that such systems restrict the AI professiona's ability to deliver a system which is satisfactory from the use's viewpoint: the limitations of the computer system will dictate the user interface, independently of the user requirements. Only a computer system with a graphical interface can supply the versatility and functionality required by the user. Examples of graphical interface facilities are given

  9. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  10. Degradation of microbial polyesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokiwa, Yutaka; Calabia, Buenaventurada P

    2004-08-01

    Microbial polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs), one of the largest groups of thermoplastic polyesters are receiving much attention as biodegradable substitutes for non-degradable plastics. Poly(D-3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) is the most ubiquitous and most intensively studied PHA. Microorganisms degrading these polyesters are widely distributed in various environments. Although various PHB-degrading microorganisms and PHB depolymerases have been studied and characterized, there are still many groups of microorganisms and enzymes with varying properties awaiting various applications. Distributions of PHB-degrading microorganisms, factors affecting the biodegradability of PHB, and microbial and enzymatic degradation of PHB are discussed in this review. We also propose an application of a new isolated, thermophilic PHB-degrading microorganism, Streptomyces strain MG, for producing pure monomers of PHA and useful chemicals, including D-3-hydroxycarboxylic acids such as D-3-hydroxybutyric acid, by enzymatic degradation of PHB.

  11. Assessing Residents' Readiness for OR Autonomy: A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Expert Surgical Teachers' Best Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaodong Phoenix; Sullivan, Amy M; Alseidi, Adnan; Kwakye, Gifty; Smink, Douglas S

    Providing resident autonomy in the operating room (OR) is one of the major challenges for surgical educators today. The purpose of this study was to explore what approaches expert surgical teachers use to assess residents' readiness for autonomy in the OR. We particularly focused on the assessments that experts make prior to conducting the surgical time-out. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with expert surgical teachers from March 2016 to September 2016. Purposeful sampling and snowball sampling were applied to identify and recruit expert surgical teachers from general surgery residency programs across the United States to represent a range of clinical subspecialties. All interviews were audio-recorded, deidentified, and transcribed. We applied the Framework Method of content analysis, discussed and reached final consensus on the themes. We interviewed 15 expert teachers from 9 institutions. The majority (13/15) were Program or Associate Program Directors; 47% (7/15) primarily performed complex surgical operations (e.g., endocrine surgery). Five themes regarding how expert surgical teachers determine residents' readiness for OR autonomy before the surgical time-out emerged. These included 3 domains of evidence elicited about the resident (resident characteristics, medical knowledge, and beyond the current OR case), 1 variable relating to attending characteristics, and 1 variable composed of contextual factors. Experts obtained one or more examples of evidence, and adjusted residents' initial autonomy using factors from the attending variable and the context variable. Expert surgical teachers' assessments of residents' readiness for OR autonomy included 5 key components. Better understanding these inputs can contribute to both faculty and resident development, enabling increased resident autonomy and preparation for independent practice. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Time course of brain activation elicited by basic emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hot, Pascal; Sequeira, Henrique

    2013-11-13

    Whereas facial emotion recognition protocols have shown that each discrete emotion has a specific time course of brain activation, there is no electrophysiological evidence to support these findings for emotional induction by complex pictures. Our objective was to specify the differences between the time courses of brain activation elicited by feelings of happiness and, with unpleasant pictures, by feelings of disgust and sadness. We compared event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by the watching of high-arousing pictures from the International Affective Picture System, selected to induce specific emotions. In addition to a classical arousal effect on late positive components, we found specific ERP patterns for each emotion in early temporal windows (emotion to be associated with different brain processing after 140 ms, whereas happiness and sadness differed in ERPs elicited at the frontal and central sites after 160 ms. Our findings highlight the limits of the classical averaging of ERPs elicited by different emotions inside the same valence and suggest that each emotion could elicit a specific temporal pattern of brain activation, similar to those observed with emotional face recognition.

  13. An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2000-01-01

    The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

  14. A web-based delphi study for eliciting helpful criteria in the positive diagnosis of hemophagocytic syndrome in adult patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejblum, Gilles; Lambotte, Olivier; Galicier, Lionel; Coppo, Paul; Marzac, Christophe; Aumont, Cédric; Fardet, Laurence

    2014-01-01

    The diagnosis of the reactive form of hemophagocytic syndrome in adults remains particularly difficult since none of the clinical or laboratory manifestations are specific. We undertook a study in order to elicit which features constitute helpful criteria for a positive diagnosis. In this Delphi study, the features investigated in the questionnaire and the experts invited to participate in the survey were issued from a bibliographic search. The questionnaire was iteratively proposed to experts via a web-based application with a feedback of the results observed at the preceding Delphi round. Experts were asked to label each investigated criterion in one of the following categories: absolutely required, important, of minor interest, or not assessable in the routine practice environment. A positive consensus was a priori defined as at least 75% answers observed in the categories absolutely required and important. The questionnaire investigated 26 criteria and 24 experts originating from 13 countries participated in the second and final Delphi round. A positive consensus was reached for the nine following criteria: unilineage cytopenia, bicytopenia, pancytopenia, presence of hemophagocytosis pictures on a bone marrow aspirate or on a tissue biopsy, high ferritin level, fever, organomegaly, presence of a predisposing underlying disease, and high level of lactate dehydrogenase. A negative consensus was reached for 13 criteria, and an absence of consensus was observed for 4 criteria. The study constitutes the first initiative to date for defining international guidelines devoted to the positive diagnosis of the reactive form of hemophagocytic syndrome.

  15. Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

    2017-11-01

    The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

  16. A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Smith

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators, fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1 the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2 the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making.

  17. Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parcy, J.P.

    1982-09-01

    A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

  18. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  19. WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinuca Elena Claudia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

  20. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites

  1. Succession planning for technical experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue; Cain, Ronald A.; Dewji, Shaheen A.; Agreda, Carla L.

    2017-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  2. Succession planning for technical experts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dewji, Shaheen A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-07-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  3. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance. PMID:29662261

  4. Expert system development (ESD) shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmini, S.; Diwakar, M.P.; Rathode, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.

    1991-01-01

    An Expert System Development (ESD) Shell design implementation is desribed in detail. The shell provides high-level generic facilities for Knowledge Representation (KR) and inferencing and tools for developing user interfaces. Powerful set of tools in the shell relieves much of the programming burden in the ES development. The shell is written in PROLOG under IBM PC/AT. KR facilities are based on two very powerful formalisms namely, frames and rules. Inference Engine (IE) draws most of its power from unification and backward reasoning strategy in PROLOG. This basic mechanism is enhanced further by incorporating both forward and backward chaining of rules and frame-based inferencing. Overall programming style integrates multiple paradigms including logic, object oriented, access-oriented and imperative programming. This permits ES designer a lot of flexibility in organizing inference control. Creation and maintainance of knowledge base is a major activity. The shell, therefore, provides number of facilities to simplify these tasks. Shell design also takes note of the fact that final success of any system depends on end-user satisfaction and hence provides features to build use-friendly interfaces. The shell also provides a set of interfacing predicates so that it can be embedded within any PROLOG program to incorporate functionalilty of the shell in the user program. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs

  5. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Jaramillo, Patricio; Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-12-30

    The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance.

  6. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

  7. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  8. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  9. Operational expert system applications in Europe

    CERN Document Server

    Zarri, Gian Piero

    1992-01-01

    Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

  10. Expert database system for quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

    1993-09-01

    There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

  11. BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

  12. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

  13. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

  14. Improvement of Requirement Elicitation Process through Cognitive Psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sana Fatima

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Proper requirement elicitation is necessary for client satisfaction along with the overall project success, but requirement engineers face problems in understanding user requirements and the users of the required system fail to make requirement engineering team understand what they actually want. It is then responsibility of requirement engineers to extract proper requirements. This paper discusses how to use cognitive psychology and learning style models (LSM to understand the psychology of clients. Moreover, it also discusses usage of proper elicitation technique according to one’s learning style and gather the right requirements.

  15. Belief elicitation in experiments: Is there a hedging problem?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Belief-elicitation experiments usually reward accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. But this allows risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of the other decisions. So can we trust the existing belief-elicitation results...... opportunities are very prominent. If hedging opportunities are transparent, and incentives to hedge are strong, many subjects do spot hedging opportunities and respond to them. The bias can go beyond players actually hedging themselves, because some expect others to hedge and best respond to this....

  16. Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: an example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garabed, R B; Perez, A M; Johnson, W O; Thurmond, M C

    2009-11-01

    When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts' opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for "diagnosing" country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts' responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

  17. Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

    2017-06-01

    There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

    2007-01-01

    consensus and/or disagreement between experts on different parts of the exposure-response paradigm. This can be done by eliciting judgments from a wide range of experts on different parts of the risk causal chain. We also use examples to illustrate how studying expert consensus/disagreement helps in research prioritization and budget allocation exercises. The expert elicitation can be repeated over the course of several years, over which time, the state of scientific knowledge will also improve and uncertainties may possibly reduce. Results from expert the elicitation exercise can be used by risk managers or managers of funding agencies as a tool for research prioritization

  19. Hilar cholangiocarcinoma: expert consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, John C; Aloia, Thomas A; Crane, Christopher H; Heimbach, Julie K; Nagino, Masato; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas

    2015-08-01

    An American Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association (AHPBA)-sponsored consensus meeting of expert panellists met on 15 January 2014 to review current evidence on the management of hilar cholangiocarcinoma in order to establish practice guidelines and to agree consensus statements. It was established that the treatment of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma requires a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to optimize the chances for both durable survival and effective palliation. An adequate diagnostic and staging work-up includes high-quality cross-sectional imaging; however, pathologic confirmation is not required prior to resection or initiation of a liver transplant trimodal treatment protocol. The ideal treatment for suitable patients with resectable hilar malignancy is resection of the intra- and extrahepatic bile ducts, as well as resection of the involved ipsilateral liver. Preoperative biliary drainage is best achieved with percutaneous transhepatic approaches and may be indicated for patients with cholangitis, malnutrition or hepatic insufficiency. Portal vein embolization is a safe and effective strategy for increasing the future liver remnant (FLR) and is particularly useful for patients with an FLR of hilar cholangiocarcinoma should be evaluated for a standard trimodal protocol incorporating external beam and endoluminal radiation therapy, systemic chemotherapy and liver transplantation. Post-resection chemoradiation should be offered to patients who show high-risk features on surgical pathology. Chemoradiation is also recommended for patients with locally advanced, unresectable hilar cancers. For patients with locally recurrent or metastatic hilar cholangiocarcinoma, first-line chemotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin is recommended based on multiple Phase II trials and a large randomized controlled trial including a heterogeneous population of patients with biliary cancers. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  20. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  1. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

  2. A law for nuclear experts only

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.

    1980-01-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

  3. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elstner, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

  4. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  5. TU Delft expert judgment data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

  6. An Expert System for Designing Fire Prescriptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Reinhardt

    1987-01-01

    Managers use prescribed fire to accomplish a variety of resource objectives. The knowledge needed to design successful prescriptions is both quantitative and qualitative. Some of it is available through publications and computer programs, but much of the knowledge of expert practitioners has never been collected or published. An expert system being developed at the,...

  7. Expert group formation using facility location analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neshati, M.; Beigy, H.; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

  8. Expert group formation using facility location analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neshati, Mahmood; Beigy, Hamid; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

  9. Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illovsky, Michael E.

    1994-01-01

    Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

  10. Safety Tips from the Expert Witness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Gary R.

    1995-01-01

    Many physical educators and coaches use the potential for liability to guide their decisions about conducting activities. By understanding expert witnesses' roles in negligence actions, surer planning, teaching, and coaching are possible. The paper describes issues that expert witnesses examine in negligence actions against physical educators,…

  11. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  12. Expert system technology for the military

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

  13. Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blanco, M.; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, A. K.; Normann, H.-T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 4 (2010), s. 412-438 ISSN 1386-4157 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : belief elicitation * hedging * experimental methodology Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.868, year: 2010

  14. Requirements Elicitation in a Telemedicine Pain-treatment Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Sandsjö, L.; Schaake, L.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Jones, Valerie M.; Hermens, Hermanus J.; Ryan, K.; Robinson, W.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the early phase requirements elicitation for a work-related neck-shoulder pain teletreatment trial and the assessment of those requirements in respect of their importance to the trial and the feasibility of the needed software adaptations of the telemedicine system within the

  15. Experimental elicitation with hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde-containing deodorants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Pia Haslund; Jensen, Charlotte Devantier; Rastogi, Suresh

    2007-01-01

    Hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) known as Lyral is a frequent allergen. It is used in more than 50% of marketed deodorants. The aim of the present study was to determine elicitation thresholds for HICC under simulated conditions of deodorant use. 15 patients with previously...

  16. Do community and autonomy moral violations elicit different emotions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollareth, Dolichan; Kikutani, Mariko; Shirai, Mariko; Russell, James A

    2018-06-11

    According to one important set of theories, different domains of immorality are linked to different discrete emotions-panculturally. Violations against the community elicit contempt, whereas violations against an individual elicit anger. To test this theory, American, Indian and Japanese participants (N = 480) indicated contempt and anger reactions (with verbal rating and face selection) to both the types of immorality. To remedy method problems in previous research, community and autonomy violations were created for the same story-frame, by varying the target to be either the community or an individual. Community and autonomy violations did not differ significantly in the emotion elicited: overall, both types of violations elicited more anger than contempt (and more negative emotion of any kind than positive emotion). By verbal rating, Americans and Indians reported more anger than contempt for both types of violation, whereas Japanese reported more contempt than anger for both types. By face selection, the three cultural groups selected anger more than contempt for both types of violation. The results speak against defining distinct domains of morality by their association with distinct emotions. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

  17. Effect of elicitation on picrotin and picrotoxinin production from in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Picrorhiza kurrooa Royel ex. Benth. is an important medicinal plant of Himalayan region and a good source of iridoid glycosides. Picrotin and picrotoxinin are compounds produced by P. kurrooa which are widely used in treatment of hepatic diseases. Elicitation is one of the best effective methods which enhance secondary ...

  18. The Role of Elicited Verbal Imitation in Toddlers' Word Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Rosemary; Munro, Natalie; Baker, Elise; McGregor, Karla; Docking, Kimberley; Arciuli, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    This study is about the role of elicited verbal imitation in toddler word learning. Forty-eight toddlers were taught eight nonwords linked to referents. During training, they were asked to imitate the nonwords. Naming of the referents was tested at three intervals (one minute later [uncued], five minutes, and 1-7 days later [cued]) and recognition…

  19. Eliciting the Dutch loan phoneme /g/ with the Menu Task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamann, S.; de Jonge, A.

    2015-01-01

    This article introduces the menu task, which can be used to elicit infrequent sounds such as loan phonemes that only occur in a restricted set of words. The menu task is similar to the well-known map task and involves the interaction of two participants to create a menu on the basis of a list of

  20. Elicited Production of Relative Clauses in Children with Williams Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zukowski, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    Relative clauses have been implicated alternately as a strength and a weakness in the language of people with Williams Syndrome (WS). To clarify the facts, an elicited production test was administered to 10 people with WS (age 10-16 years), 10 typically developing children (age 4-7 years), and 12 typically developing adults. Nearly every WS…

  1. Pattern Visual Evoked Potentials Elicited by Organic Electroluminescence Screen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso Soiti Matsumoto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To determine whether organic electroluminescence (OLED screens can be used as visual stimulators to elicit pattern-reversal visual evoked potentials (p-VEPs. Method. Checkerboard patterns were generated on a conventional cathode-ray tube (S710, Compaq Computer Co., USA screen and on an OLED (17 inches, 320 × 230 mm, PVM-1741, Sony, Tokyo, Japan screen. The time course of the luminance changes of each monitor was measured with a photodiode. The p-VEPs elicited by these two screens were recorded from 15 eyes of 9 healthy volunteers (22.0 ± 0.8 years. Results. The OLED screen had a constant time delay from the onset of the trigger signal to the start of the luminescence change. The delay during the reversal phase from black to white for the pattern was 1.0 msec on the cathode-ray tube (CRT screen and 0.5 msec on the OLED screen. No significant differences in the amplitudes of P100 and the implicit times of N75 and P100 were observed in the p-VEPs elicited by the CRT and the OLED screens. Conclusion. The OLED screen can be used as a visual stimulator to elicit p-VEPs; however the time delay and the specific properties in the luminance change must be taken into account.

  2. Engaging Young Children in Research through Photo Elicitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Embracing the new sociology of childhood, this paper describes a participatory research method built on a belief in the competency of young children. The paper begins with a critical review of the photo elicitation literature exploring the varied levels of children's participation. Drawing on the strengths of the previous research, a multi-step…

  3. Pattern visual evoked potentials elicited by organic electroluminescence screen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Celso Soiti; Shinoda, Kei; Matsumoto, Harue; Funada, Hideaki; Sasaki, Kakeru; Minoda, Haruka; Iwata, Takeshi; Mizota, Atsushi

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether organic electroluminescence (OLED) screens can be used as visual stimulators to elicit pattern-reversal visual evoked potentials (p-VEPs). Checkerboard patterns were generated on a conventional cathode-ray tube (S710, Compaq Computer Co., USA) screen and on an OLED (17 inches, 320 × 230 mm, PVM-1741, Sony, Tokyo, Japan) screen. The time course of the luminance changes of each monitor was measured with a photodiode. The p-VEPs elicited by these two screens were recorded from 15 eyes of 9 healthy volunteers (22.0 ± 0.8 years). The OLED screen had a constant time delay from the onset of the trigger signal to the start of the luminescence change. The delay during the reversal phase from black to white for the pattern was 1.0 msec on the cathode-ray tube (CRT) screen and 0.5 msec on the OLED screen. No significant differences in the amplitudes of P100 and the implicit times of N75 and P100 were observed in the p-VEPs elicited by the CRT and the OLED screens. The OLED screen can be used as a visual stimulator to elicit p-VEPs; however the time delay and the specific properties in the luminance change must be taken into account.

  4. Conditioned craving cues elicit an automatic approach tendency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gucht, D.; Vansteenwegen, D.; Van den Bergh, O.; Beckers, T.

    2008-01-01

    In two experiments, we used a Pavlovian differential conditioning procedure to induce craving for chocolate. As a result of repeated pairing with chocolate intake, initially neutral cues came to elicit an automatic approach tendency in a speeded stimulus-response compatibility reaction time task.

  5. Eliciting and Applying Local Research Knowledge for Peacebuilding ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    gs

    Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) are pleased to announce a jointly-funded research initiative Eliciting and Applying Local Research. Knowledge for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding. The research initiative seeks to increase the level of recognition and ...

  6. Elicitation of Pharmacologically Active Substances in Intact Medical Plant

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kužel, S.; Vydra, J.; Tříska, Jan; Vrchotová, Naděžda; Hrubý, Martin; Cígler, P.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 17 (2009), s. 7907-7911 ISSN 0021-8561 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z40500505 Keywords : elicitation * medical plant * Echinacea purpurea * secondary metabolite * foliar application * phenolics Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 2.469, year: 2009

  7. Extinction and renewal of cue-elicited reward-seeking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezzina, Louise; Lee, Jessica C; Lovibond, Peter F; Colagiuri, Ben

    2016-12-01

    Reward cues can contribute to overconsumption of food and drugs and can relapse. The failure of exposure therapies to reduce overconsumption and relapse is generally attributed to the context-specificity of extinction. However, no previous study has examined whether cue-elicited reward-seeking (as opposed to cue-reactivity) is sensitive to context renewal. We tested this possibility in 160 healthy volunteers using a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) design involving voluntary responding for a high value natural reward (chocolate). One reward cue underwent Pavlovian extinction in the same (Group AAA) or different context (Group ABA) to all other phases. This cue was compared with a second non-extinguished reward cue and an unpaired control cue. There was a significant overall PIT effect with both reward cues eliciting reward-seeking on test relative to the unpaired cue. Pavlovian extinction substantially reduced this effect, with the extinguished reward cue eliciting less reward-seeking than the non-extinguished reward cue. Most interestingly, extinction of cue-elicited reward-seeking was sensitive to renewal, with extinction less effective for reducing PIT when conducted in a different context. These findings have important implications for extinction-based interventions for reducing maladaptive reward-seeking in practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  9. Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

  10. Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appazov, Artur

    The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

  11. Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

    2010-01-01

    -seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

  12. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  13. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  14. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  15. Knowledge management: an analysis of the tools of expert knowledge capture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez Larcher, A.

    2009-01-01

    This work proposes the revision of the strategies and tools used to elicit and capture expert knowledge, particularly those suggested by the EPRI and the IAEA. The main objective of this paper consists of examining the effectiveness and scope of the methodologies proposed, in order to apply them and make them suitable according to our institutional context. This article emphasizes the value and usefulness of the interview's methods with the aim of implementing some of them to the activities created and organized by CNEA Nuclear Knowledge Management Group, especially to the ConRRad Project. (author)

  16. Degradations and Rearrangement Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianbo

    This section deals with recent reports concerning degradation and rearrangement reactions of free sugars as well as some glycosides. The transformations are classified in chemical and enzymatic ways. In addition, the Maillard reaction will be discussed as an example of degradation and rearrangement transformation and its application in current research in the fields of chemistry and biology.

  17. Improving the public health sector in South Africa: eliciting public preferences using a discrete choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Ayako; Ryan, Mandy; van Niekerk, Robert; McIntyre, Diane

    2015-06-01

    The introduction of national health insurance (NHI), aimed at achieving universal coverage, is the most important issue currently on the South African health policy agenda. Improvement in public sector health-care provision is crucial for the successful implementation of NHI as, regardless of whether health-care services become more affordable and available, if the quality of the services provided is not acceptable, people will not use the services. Although there has been criticism of the quality of public sector health services, limited research is available to identify what communities regard as the greatest problems with the services. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was undertaken to elicit public preferences on key dimensions of quality of care when selecting public health facilities in South Africa. Qualitative methods were applied to establish attributes and levels for the DCE. To elicit preferences, interviews with community members were held in two South African provinces: 491 in Western Cape and 499 in Eastern Cape. The availability of necessary medicine at health facilities has the greatest impact on the probability of attending public health facilities. Other clinical quality attributes (i.e. provision of expert advice and provision of a thorough examination) are more valued than non-clinical quality of care attributes (i.e. staff attitude, treatment by doctors or nurses, and waiting time). Treatment by a doctor was less valued than all other attributes. Communities are prepared to tolerate public sector health service characteristics such as a long waiting time, poor staff attitudes and lack of direct access to doctors if they receive the medicine they need, a thorough examination and a clear explanation of the diagnosis and prescribed treatment from health professionals. These findings prioritize issues that the South African government must address in order to meet their commitment to improve public sector health-care service provision. Published

  18. Continental mapping of groundwater dependent ecosystems: A methodological framework to integrate diverse data and expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanya M. Doody

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights: It was identified that 34% of Australia’s landscape potentially contains GDEs of which 5% are classified with a high GDE potential. In addition, new continental scale insights into landscape processes where provided by the derivation and integration of remote sensing products using MODIS and Landsat. These products identify landscapes which are ‘wetter’ or ‘greener’ than surrounding areas, indicating these landscapes are accessing additional water, such as groundwater, supplementary to rainfall. The method reported also demonstrates the importance of expert knowledge, obtained through literature and expert elicitation, in order to provide a conceptual understanding of regional ecohydrological processes to develop rules of GDE dependency that would guide the extrapolation of known GDEs.

  19. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

  20. Expert system aids transport regulation users

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

  1. Expert systems and computer based industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunand, R.

    1989-01-01

    Framentec is the artificial intelligence subsidiary of FRAMATOME. It is involved in expert-system activities of Shells, developments, methodology and software for maintenance (Maintex) and consulting and methodology. Specific applications in the nuclear field are presented. The first is an expert system to assist in the piping support design prototype, the second is an expert system that assists an ultrasonic testing operator in determining the nature of a welding defect and the third is a welding machine diagnosis advisor. Maintex is a software tool to provide assistance in the repair of complex industrial equipment. (author)

  2. Expert systems for assisting in design reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brtis, J.S.; Johnson, W.J.; Weber, N.; Naser, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses Sargent and Lundy's (S and L's) use of expert system technologies to computerize the procedures used for engineering design reviews. This paper discusses expert systems and the advantages that result from using them to computerize the decision-making process. This paper also discusses the design review expert systems that S and L has developed to perform fire protection and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) design reviews, and is currently developing for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to perform 10 CFR 50.59 safety reviews

  3. Risks, doubt, scientific and technical expert appraisement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decrop, G.

    1993-01-01

    In complex systems which compose modern societies, expert report is going to take an increasing place. In its usual definition, expert is justified by a superior authority, his knowledge comes from experience, he is present as a third party where he has to work. It is often forgotten two other important points, connected with the situation: it is a tangling of technical or natural systems with a social system and above all there is a risk of uncertainty. Then, the job of expert is different from scientific work done in laboratories and different from operational work done by engineers

  4. An expert system for dispersion model interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.

    1988-10-01

    A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  5. Computers start to think with expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-03-21

    A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

  6. Teacher Knowledge for Active-Learning Instruction: Expert-Novice Comparison Reveals Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auerbach, A J; Higgins, M; Brickman, P; Andrews, T C

    2018-01-01

    Active-learning strategies can improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) undergraduates' abilities to learn fundamental concepts and skills. However, the results instructors achieve vary substantially. One explanation for this is that instructors commonly implement active learning differently than intended. An important factor affecting how instructors implement active learning is knowledge of teaching and learning. We aimed to discover knowledge that is important to effective active learning in large undergraduate courses. We developed a lesson-analysis instrument to elicit teacher knowledge, drawing on the theoretical construct of teacher noticing. We compared the knowledge used by expert ( n = 14) and novice ( n = 29) active-learning instructors as they analyzed lessons. Experts and novices differed in what they noticed, with experts more commonly considering how instructors hold students accountable, topic-specific student difficulties, whether the instructor elicited and responded to student thinking, and opportunities students had to generate their own ideas and work. Experts were also better able to support their lesson analyses with reasoning. This work provides foundational knowledge for the future design of preparation and support for instructors adopting active learning. Improving teacher knowledge will improve the implementation of active learning, which will be necessary to widely realize the potential benefits of active learning in undergraduate STEM. © 2018 A. J. Auerbach et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2018 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  7. Intermittent degradation and schizotypy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W. Roché

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Intermittent degradation refers to transient detrimental disruptions in task performance. This phenomenon has been repeatedly observed in the performance data of patients with schizophrenia. Whether intermittent degradation is a feature of the liability for schizophrenia (i.e., schizotypy is an open question. Further, the specificity of intermittent degradation to schizotypy has yet to be investigated. To address these questions, 92 undergraduate participants completed a battery of self-report questionnaires assessing schizotypy and psychological state variables (e.g., anxiety, depression, and their reaction times were recorded as they did so. Intermittent degradation was defined as the number of times a subject’s reaction time for questionnaire items met or exceeded three standard deviations from his or her mean reaction time after controlling for each item’s information processing load. Intermittent degradation scores were correlated with questionnaire scores. Our results indicate that intermittent degradation is associated with total scores on measures of positive and disorganized schizotypy, but unrelated to total scores on measures of negative schizotypy and psychological state variables. Intermittent degradation is interpreted as potentially derivative of schizotypy and a candidate endophenotypic marker worthy of continued research.

  8. Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho compared with other supposed causal factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxim, L [Institut des Sciences de la Communication, CNRS UPS 3088, 27 Rue Damesme, 75013 Paris (France); Van der Sluijs, J P, E-mail: laura.maxim@iscc.cnrs.f, E-mail: J.P.vanderSluijs@uu.n [Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Department of Science, Technology and Society, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2010-01-15

    Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

  10. Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho compared with other supposed causal factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxim, L; Van der Sluijs, J P

    2010-01-01

    Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

  11. Expert monitoring and verbal feedback as sources of performance pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, John J; Park, Inchon; Chen, Jing; Mehta, Ranjana K; McCulloch, Austin; Rhee, Joohyun; Wright, David L

    2018-05-01

    The influence of monitoring-pressure and verbal feedback on the performance of the intrinsically stable bimanual coordination patterns of in-phase and anti-phase was examined. The two bimanual patterns were produced under three conditions: 1) no-monitoring, 2) monitoring-pressure (viewed by experts), and 3) monitoring-pressure (viewed by experts) combined with verbal feedback emphasizing poor performance. The bimanual patterns were produced at self-paced movement frequencies. Anti-phase coordination was always less stable than in-phase coordination across all three conditions. When performed under conditions 2 and 3, both bimanual patterns were performed with less variability in relative phase across a wide range of self-paced movement frequencies compared to the no-monitoring condition. Thus, monitoring-pressure resulted in performance stabilization rather than degradation and the presence of verbal feedback had no impact on the influence of monitoring pressure. The current findings are inconsistent with the predictions of explicit monitoring theory; however, the findings are consistent with studies that have revealed increased stability for the system's intrinsic dynamics as a result of attentional focus and intentional control. The results are discussed within the contexts of the dynamic pattern theory of coordination, explicit monitoring theory, and action-focused theories as explanations for choking under pressure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Chemically Induced Degradation of the Oncogenic Transcription Factor BCL6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Kerres

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The transcription factor BCL6 is a known driver of oncogenesis in lymphoid malignancies, including diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL. Disruption of its interaction with transcriptional repressors interferes with the oncogenic effects of BCL6. We used a structure-based drug design to develop highly potent compounds that block this interaction. A subset of these inhibitors also causes rapid ubiquitylation and degradation of BCL6 in cells. These compounds display significantly stronger induction of expression of BCL6-repressed genes and anti-proliferative effects than compounds that merely inhibit co-repressor interactions. This work establishes the BTB domain as a highly druggable structure, paving the way for the use of other members of this protein family as drug targets. The magnitude of effects elicited by this class of BCL6-degrading compounds exceeds that of our equipotent non-degrading inhibitors, suggesting opportunities for the development of BCL6-based lymphoma therapeutics.

  13. An alternative approach for eliciting willingness-to-pay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura J. Damschroder

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Open-ended methods that elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP in terms of absolute dollars often result in high rates of questionable and highly skewed responses, insensitivity to changes in health state, and raise an ethical issue related to its association with personal income. We conducted a 2x2 randomized trial over the Internet to test 4 WTP formats: 1 WTP in dollars; 2 WTP as a percentage of financial resources; 3 WTP in terms of monthly payments; and 4 WTP as a single lump-sum amount. WTP as a percentage of financial resources generated fewer questionable values, had better distribution properties, greater sensitivity to severity of health states, and was not associated with income. WTP elicited on a monthly basis also showed promise.

  14. Elicitation of preferences for improvements in ostomy pouches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnichsen, Ole

    This paper attempts to examine and measure ostomates’ preferences for improvements in ostomy pouches. Described are the study design, elicitation procedure and resulting preference structure of the Swedish ostomate sample. The method used to elicit the preferences is a Discrete Choice Experiment...... (DCE), where respondents are asked to choose between alternatives in choice sets. Each alternative is comprised of a number of attributes relating to the adhesive, filter and flexibility of ostomy pouches. The choice between alternatives made by the respondent implies an implicit trade-off between...... the attributes and allows for the estimation of individuals’ Willingness to Pay (WTP) for the attributes of ostomy pouches when cost is included as an attribute. The data consists of 254 ostomates responding to the survey. The respondents have positive WTP for all improvement attributes presented to them...

  15. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  16. National Cyber Expert Addresses ELP Class

    OpenAIRE

    Center for Homeland Defense and Security

    2012-01-01

    Center for Homeland Defense and Security, PRESS RELEASES Governments, businesses and educational institutions should be making cybersecurity a top priority, a leading expert told a class of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Executive Leaders Program. Brian...

  17. A fuzzy expert system based on relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

    1986-01-01

    The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

  18. Implicit Communication in Novice and Expert Teams

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Swain, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    ... (military, sporting or business teams). This suggests that expert teams may be utilising shared mental models of both the roles of their teammates and how they should be working together in a group situation...

  19. Preference Elicitation and Negotiation in a Group Recommender System

    OpenAIRE

    Álvarez Márquez , Jesús ,; Ziegler , Jurgen

    2015-01-01

    International audience; We present a novel approach to group recommender systems that better takes into account the social interaction in a group when formulating, discussing and negotiating the features of the item to be jointly selected. Our approach provides discussion support in a collaborative preference elicitation and negotiation process. Individual preferences are continuously aggregated and immediate feedback of the resulting recommendations is provided. We also support the last stag...

  20. Graph and Network for Model Elicitation (GNOME Phase 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    GRAPH AND NETWORK FOR MODEL ELICITATION (GNOME PHASE II) CUBRC FEBRUARY 2013 FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT APPROVED FOR...NUMBER 00 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 01 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) CUBRC 4455 Genesee St. Buffalo, NY 14225 8. PERFORMING...Explorer Since the previous version of GNOME was developed as an Eclipse RCP plug-in, it allowed CUBRC to develop the Model Explorer separately without

  1. Anticipating requirements changes-using futurology in requirements elicitation

    OpenAIRE

    Pimentel, João Henrique; Santos, Emanuel; Castro, Jaelson; Franch Gutiérrez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that requirements changes in a later phase of software developments is a major source of software defects and costs. Thus, the need of techniques to control or reduce the amount of changes during software development projects. The authors advocate the use of foresight methods as a valuable input to requirements elicitation, with the potential to decrease the number of changes that would be required after deployment, by anticipating them. In this paper, the authors define a pr...

  2. Neutrosophic Logic for Mental Model Elicitation and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Pérez-Teruel

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Mental models are personal, internal representations of external reality that people use to interact with the world around them. They are useful in multiple situations such as muticriteria decision making, knowledge management, complex system learning and analysis. In this paper a framework for mental models elicitation and analysis based on neutrosophic Logic is presented. An illustrative example is provided to show the applicability of the proposal. The paper ends with conclusion future research directions.

  3. Autobiographical memories of young adults elicited by positive musical stimuli

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Ana Margarida Silva

    2015-01-01

    Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia Studies on autobiographical memories have shown the presence of three main components: childhood amnesia, recency effect and reminiscence bump (Rubin, 1986). Previous research suggests that autobiographical memories elicited by positive stimuli are associated with highly, specific and generally pleasant episodes (Krumhansl & Zupnick, 2013). Music has an important and highly emotional and social role in individual’s lives. The p...

  4. Incentives for Truthful Information Elicitation of Continuous Signals

    OpenAIRE

    Radanovic, Goran; Faltings, Boi

    2014-01-01

    We consider settings where a collective intelligence is formed by aggregating information contributed from many independent agents, such as product reviews, community sensing, or opinion polls. We propose a novel mechanism that elicits both private signals and beliefs. The mechanism extends the previous versions of the Bayesian Truth Serum (the original BTS, the RBTS, and the multi-valued BTS), by allowing small populations and non-binary private signals, while not requiring additional assump...

  5. Interviewing strategically to elicit admissions from guilty suspects

    OpenAIRE

    Tekin, Serra; Granhag, Pär Anders; Strömwall, Leif; Giolla, Erik Mac; Vrij, Aldert; Hartwig, Maria

    2015-01-01

    In this article we introduce a novel interviewing tactic to elicit admissions from guilty suspects. By influencing the suspects’ perception of the amount of evidence the interviewer holds against them, we aimed to shift the suspects’ counterinterrogation strategies from less to more forthcoming. The proposed tactic (SUE-Confrontation) is a development of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) framework and aims to affect the suspects’ perception by confronting them with statement-evidence incons...

  6. The Lookahead Principle for Preference Elicitation: Experimental Results

    OpenAIRE

    Viappiani, Paolo; Faltings, Boi; Pu, Pearl

    2006-01-01

    Preference-based search is the problem of finding an item that matches best with a user's preferences. User studies show that example-based tools for preference-based search can achieve significantly higher accuracy when they are complemented with suggestions chosen to inform users about the available choices. We discuss the problem of eliciting preferences in example-based tools and present the lookahead principle for generating suggestions. We compare two different implementations of this p...

  7. Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation and Incorporation into Class Diagrams

    OpenAIRE

    Song , Xiaoyu; Duan , Zhenhua; Tian , Cong

    2010-01-01

    International audience; Top-quality software architecture should consider both functional and non-functional aspects of systems and their association. In the the existing literature, considerable efforts have been directed at functional requirement analysis and design, regardless of the non-functional aspects. This disassociation makes architecture comprehension and evolution hard. This paper proposes a strategy on how to elicit non-functional requirements and incorporate them into the design...

  8. Patient participation in patient safety still missing: Patient safety experts' views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlström, Merja; Partanen, Pirjo; Rathert, Cheryl; Turunen, Hannele

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this study was to elicit patient safety experts' views of patient participation in promoting patient safety. Data were collected between September and December in 2014 via an electronic semi-structured questionnaire and interviews with Finnish patient safety experts (n = 21), then analysed using inductive content analysis. Patient safety experts regarded patients as having a crucial role in promoting patient safety. They generally deemed the level of patient safety as 'acceptable' in their organizations, but reported that patient participation in their own safety varied, and did not always meet national standards. Management of patient safety incidents differed between organizations. Experts also suggested that patient safety training should be increased in both basic and continuing education programmes for healthcare professionals. Patient participation in patient safety is still lacking in clinical practice and systematic actions are needed to create a safety culture in which patients are seen as equal partners in the promotion of high-quality and safe care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  9. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

  10. Deep sequencing reveals transcriptome re-programming of Taxus × media cells to the elicitation with methyl jasmonate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guiling; Yang, Yanfang; Xie, Fuliang; Wen, Jian-Fan; Wu, Jianqiang; Wilson, Iain W; Tang, Qi; Liu, Hongwei; Qiu, Deyou

    2013-01-01

    Plant cell culture represents an alternative source for producing high-value secondary metabolites including paclitaxel (Taxol®), which is mainly produced in Taxus and has been widely used in cancer chemotherapy. The phytohormone methyl jasmonate (MeJA) can significantly increase the production of paclitaxel, which is induced in plants as a secondary metabolite possibly in defense against herbivores and pathogens. In cell culture, MeJA also elicits the accumulation of paclitaxel; however, the mechanism is still largely unknown. To obtain insight into the global regulation mechanism of MeJA in the steady state of paclitaxel production (7 days after MeJA addition), especially on paclitaxel biosynthesis, we sequenced the transcriptomes of MeJA-treated and untreated Taxus × media cells and obtained ∼ 32.5 M high quality reads, from which 40,348 unique sequences were obtained by de novo assembly. Expression level analysis indicated that a large number of genes were associated with transcriptional regulation, DNA and histone modification, and MeJA signaling network. All the 29 known genes involved in the biosynthesis of terpenoid backbone and paclitaxel were found with 18 genes showing increased transcript abundance following elicitation of MeJA. The significantly up-regulated changes of 9 genes in paclitaxel biosynthesis were validated by qRT-PCR assays. According to the expression changes and the previously proposed enzyme functions, multiple candidates for the unknown steps in paclitaxel biosynthesis were identified. We also found some genes putatively involved in the transport and degradation of paclitaxel. Potential target prediction of miRNAs indicated that miRNAs may play an important role in the gene expression regulation following the elicitation of MeJA. Our results shed new light on the global regulation mechanism by which MeJA regulates the physiology of Taxus cells and is helpful to understand how MeJA elicits other plant species besides Taxus.

  11. Expert systems to assist plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Yoshihiro; Mori, Nobuyuki; Wada, Norio

    1985-01-01

    Large-scale real-time process control systems, such as those for electric power dispatching, large thermal and nuclear power stations, steel mill plants and manufacturing automation systems, need expert systems to assist operator's decision. The expert systems newly developed to fulfill the requirement are founded on OKBS (object oriented knowledge based system). OKBS provides various object types: fuzzy logic type, production rule type, frame type, state transition type, abstract data type and input/output transformation type. (author)

  12. Jess, the Java expert system shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman-Hill, E.J.

    1997-11-01

    This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

  13. An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

    1992-01-01

    In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

  14. Elicitation of andrographolide in the suspension cultures of Andrographis paniculata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandi, Suryakala; Rao, Kiranmayee; Chodisetti, Bhuvaneswari; Giri, Archana

    2012-12-01

    Andrographis paniculata belonging to the family Acanthaceae produces a group of diterpene lactones, one of which is the pharmaceutically important-andrographolide. It is known to possess various important biological properties like anticancer, anti-HIV, anti-inflammatory, etc. This is the first report on the production of andrographolide in the cell suspension cultures of Andrographis paniculata by 'elicitation'. Elicitation was attempted to enhance the andrographolide content in the suspension cultures of Andrographis paniculata and also to ascertain its stimulation under stress conditions or in response to pathogen attack. The maximum andrographolide production was found to be 1.53 mg/g dry cell weight (DCW) at the end of stationary phase during the growth curve. The biotic elicitors (yeast, Escherichia coli, Bacillus subtilis, Agrobacterium rhizogenes 532 and Agrobacterium tumefaciens C 58) were more effective in eliciting the response when compared to the abiotic elicitors (CdCl(2), AgNO(3), CuCl(2) and HgCl(2)). Yeast has shown to stimulate maximum accumulation of 13.5 mg/g DCW andrographolide, which was found to be 8.82-fold higher than the untreated cultures.

  15. Role of local neurons in cerebrocortical vasodilation elicited from cerebellum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iadecola, C.; Arneric, S.P.; Baker, H.D.; Tucker, L.W.; Reis, D.J.

    1987-01-01

    The vasodilation elicited in cerebral cortex by stimulation of the cerebellar fastigial nucleus (FN) is mediated by input pathways coming from the basal forebrain. The authors studied whether these pathways mediate the cortical vasodilation via a direct action on local blood vessels or via interposed local neurons. Neurons were destroyed in the primary sensory cortex by local microinjection of the excitotoxin ibotenic acid (IBO). Five days later rats were anesthetized, paralyzed, and ventilated. Arterial pressure and blood gases were controlled, and FN was stimulated electrically. Local cerebral blood flow (LCBF) was measured using the [ 14 C]iodoantipyrine technique with autoradiography. Five days after IBO, neurons were destroyed in a restricted cortical area, and afferent fibers and terminals were preserved. The selectivity of the neuronal loss was established by histological and biochemical criteria and by transport of horseradish, peroxidase from or into the lesion. Within the lesion, resting LCBF was unaffected, but the increase in LCBF evoked from the FN was abolished. In contrast the vasodilation elicited by hypercapnia was preserved. In the rest of the brain the vasodilation elicited from FN was largely unaffected. The authors conclude that the vasodilation evoked from FN in cerebral cortex depends on the integrity of a restricted population of local neurons that interact with the local microvasculature

  16. State-of-the-Art Prescriptive Criteria Weight Elicitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona Riabacke

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparatively few of the vast amounts of decision analytical methods suggested have been widely spread in actual practice. Some approaches have nevertheless been more successful in this respect than others. Quantitative decision making has moved from the study of decision theory founded on a single criterion towards decision support for more realistic decision-making situations with multiple, often conflicting, criteria. Furthermore, the identified gap between normative and descriptive theories seems to suggest a shift to more prescriptive approaches. However, when decision analysis applications are used to aid prescriptive decision-making processes, additional demands are put on these applications to adapt to the users and the context. In particular, the issue of weight elicitation is crucial. There are several techniques for deriving criteria weights from preference statements. This is a cognitively demanding task, subject to different biases, and the elicited values can be heavily dependent on the method of assessment. There have been a number of methods suggested for assessing criteria weights, but these methods have properties which impact their applicability in practice. This paper provides a survey of state-of-the-art weight elicitation methods in a prescriptive setting.

  17. Conditioned responses elicited by experimentally produced cues for smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucha, R F; Pauli, P; Angrilli, A

    1998-03-01

    Several theories of drug-craving postulate that a signal for drug elicits conditioned responses. However, depending on the theory, a drug cue is said to elicit drug similar, drug compensatory, positive motivational, and negative motivational effects. Since animal data alone cannot tease apart the relative importance of different cue-related processes in the addict, we developed and examined a model of drug cues in the human based on a two-sound, differential conditioning procedure using smoking as the reinforcer. After multiple pairings of a sound with smoking, there was a preference for the smoking cue on a conditioned preference test. The acute effects of smoking (increased heart rate, respiration rate, skin conductance level, skin conductance fluctuations, EEG beta power and trapezius EMG, decreased alpha power) were not affected by the smoking cue, although subjects drew more on their cigarette in the presence of the smoking cue than in the presence of a control cue. Moreover, the cue did not change baseline behaviour except for a possible increase in EEG beta power and an increase in trapezius EMG at about the time when smoking should have occurred. The findings confirm the value of experimental models of drug cues in the human for comparing different cue phenomena in the dependent individual. They indicate that an acquired signal for drug in the human may elicit incentive motivational effects and associated preparatory motor responses in addition to possible conditioned tolerance.

  18. How do polymers degrade?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Suping

    2011-03-01

    Materials derived from agricultural products such as cellulose, starch, polylactide, etc. are more sustainable and environmentally benign than those derived from petroleum. However, applications of these polymers are limited by their processing properties, chemical and thermal stabilities. For example, polyethylene terephthalate fabrics last for many years under normal use conditions, but polylactide fabrics cannot due to chemical degradation. There are two primary mechanisms through which these polymers degrade: via hydrolysis and via oxidation. Both of these two mechanisms are related to combined factors such as monomer chemistry, chain configuration, chain mobility, crystallinity, and permeation to water and oxygen, and product geometry. In this talk, we will discuss how these materials degrade and how the degradation depends on these factors under application conditions. Both experimental studies and mathematical modeling will be presented.

  19. Purex diluent degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tallent, O.K.; Mailen, J.C.; Pannell, K.D.

    1984-02-01

    The chemical degradation of normal paraffin hydrocarbon (NPH) diluents both in the pure state and mixed with 30% tributyl phosphate (TBP) was investigated in a series of experiments. The results show that degradation of NPH in the TBP-NPH-HNO 3 system is consistent with the active chemical agent being a radical-like nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) molecule, not HNO 3 as such. Spectrophotometric, gas chromatographic, mass spectrographic, and titrimetric methods were used to identify the degradation products, which included alkane nitro and nitrate compounds, alcohols, unsaturated alcohols, nitro alcohols, nitro alkenes, ketones, and carboxylic acids. The degradation rate was found to increase with increases in the HNO 3 concentration and the temperature. The rate was decreased by argon sparging to remove NO 2 and by the addition of butanol, which probably acts as a NO 2 scavenger. 13 references, 11 figures

  20. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  1. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  2. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  3. Measuring the Effectiveness of Gamesourcing Expert Oil Painting Annotations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the

  4. Adherence to best practice guidelines in dyspepsia: a survey comparing dyspepsia experts, community gastroenterologists and primary-care providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegel, B M R; Farid, M; van Oijen, M G H; Laine, L; Howden, C W; Esrailian, E

    2009-04-15

    Although 'best practice' guidelines for dyspepsia management have been disseminated, it remains unclear whether providers adhere to these guidelines. To compare adherence to 'best practice' guidelines among dyspepsia experts, community gastroenterologists and primary-care providers (PCPs). We administered a vignette survey to elicit knowledge and beliefs about dyspepsia including a set of 16 best practices, to three groups: (i) dyspepsia experts; (ii) community gastroenterologists and (iii) PCPs. The expert, community gastroenterologist and PCP groups endorsed 75%, 73% and 57% of best practices respectively. Gastroenterologists were more likely to adhere with guidelines than PCPs (P guideline adherence (P = 0.04). Gastroenterologists are more likely than PCPs to comply with best practices in dyspepsia, although compliance remains incomplete in both groups. PCPs harbour more concerns regarding long-term PPI use and these concerns may affect therapeutic decision making. This suggests that best practices have not been uniformly adopted and persistent guideline-practice disconnects should be addressed.

  5. Bacteria and lignin degradation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing LI; Hongli YUAN; Jinshui YANG

    2009-01-01

    Lignin is both the most abundant aromatic (phenolic) polymer and the second most abundant raw material.It is degraded and modified by bacteria in the natural world,and bacteria seem to play a leading role in decomposing lignin in aquatic ecosystems.Lignin-degrading bacteria approach the polymer by mechanisms such as tunneling,erosion,and cavitation.With the advantages of immense environmental adaptability and biochemical versatility,bacteria deserve to be studied for their ligninolytic potential.

  6. Reviewing fluid systems for age-related degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Stan

    1991-01-01

    Yankee Atomic Electric Company has developed the component degradation assessment tool (CoDAT), an expert system, that aids in handling and evaluating the large amounts of data required to support the license renewal process for nuclear power station fluid systems. In 1990, CoDAT evaluated the Yankee Nuclear Power Station fluid systems for age-related degradation. Its results are now being used to help focus the plant's maintenance programs and manage the expected degradation. CoDAT uses 'If-Then' rules, developed from industry codes, standards and publications, to determine the potential for 19 age-related degradation mechanisms. Other nuclear utilities pursuing the license renewal option also could use CoDAT. (author)

  7. Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    As part of the preparation for the up-coming International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met at UN headquarters on January 20-24, 1992. The group noted that the momentum of population growth was expected to add 3 billion people to the global population between 1985 and 2025, with more than 90% of the growth occurring in the developing countries which are least able to respond to the attendant resource and environmental demands. The expert group discussed the interaction of population and resources, specifically the impact of population growth on the environment and carrying capacity. The meeting then focused on environmental discontinuities and uncertainties and on environmental degradation, specifically the loss of agricultural land, the destruction of tropical forests, fresh-water resource, the loss of biological diversify, and climate change. Following their deliberations, the expert group drafted 18 recommendations addressed to governments, social institutions, and international organizations. The group urged that governments establish or strengthen the integration of environmental and population concerns into development policy-making and planning and support technologies to achieve sustained economic growth and development while striving to replace the use of fossil fuels with renewable resources. Areas of the environment subject to acute population pressure should be identified and policies devised to reduce that pressure. Ecologically helpful labor-intensive projects should be implemented for their dual benefits. Women should be included in these activities, and their status in society, therefore, should be improved through improved education and participatory opportunities. The uses of water should be optimized to acknowledge its scarcity. The delivery of service to alleviate poverty should proceed in a manner that invites community participation, which, along with education, will be vital to institute these changes. Adequate

  8. Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

    2003-01-01

    Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual

  9. Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level. Copyright © 2011 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

  11. Transient and sustained cortical activity elicited by connected speech of varying intelligibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiitinen Hannu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The robustness of speech perception in the face of acoustic variation is founded on the ability of the auditory system to integrate the acoustic features of speech and to segregate them from background noise. This auditory scene analysis process is facilitated by top-down mechanisms, such as recognition memory for speech content. However, the cortical processes underlying these facilitatory mechanisms remain unclear. The present magnetoencephalography (MEG study examined how the activity of auditory cortical areas is modulated by acoustic degradation and intelligibility of connected speech. The experimental design allowed for the comparison of cortical activity patterns elicited by acoustically identical stimuli which were perceived as either intelligible or unintelligible. Results In the experiment, a set of sentences was presented to the subject in distorted, undistorted, and again in distorted form. The intervening exposure to undistorted versions of sentences rendered the initially unintelligible, distorted sentences intelligible, as evidenced by an increase from 30% to 80% in the proportion of sentences reported as intelligible. These perceptual changes were reflected in the activity of the auditory cortex, with the auditory N1m response (~100 ms being more prominent for the distorted stimuli than for the intact ones. In the time range of auditory P2m response (>200 ms, auditory cortex as well as regions anterior and posterior to this area generated a stronger response to sentences which were intelligible than unintelligible. During the sustained field (>300 ms, stronger activity was elicited by degraded stimuli in auditory cortex and by intelligible sentences in areas posterior to auditory cortex. Conclusions The current findings suggest that the auditory system comprises bottom-up and top-down processes which are reflected in transient and sustained brain activity. It appears that analysis of acoustic features occurs

  12. Drift Degradation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. Kicker

    2004-01-01

    Degradation of underground openings as a function of time is a natural and expected occurrence for any subsurface excavation. Over time, changes occur to both the stress condition and the strength of the rock mass due to several interacting factors. Once the factors contributing to degradation are characterized, the effects of drift degradation can typically be mitigated through appropriate design and maintenance of the ground support system. However, for the emplacement drifts of the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, it is necessary to characterize drift degradation over a 10,000-year period, which is well beyond the functional period of the ground support system. This document provides an analysis of the amount of drift degradation anticipated in repository emplacement drifts for discrete events and time increments extending throughout the 10,000-year regulatory period for postclosure performance. This revision of the drift degradation analysis was developed to support the license application and fulfill specific agreement items between the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The earlier versions of ''Drift Degradation Analysis'' (BSC 2001 [DIRS 156304]) relied primarily on the DRKBA numerical code, which provides for a probabilistic key-block assessment based on realistic fracture patterns determined from field mapping in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) at Yucca Mountain. A key block is defined as a critical block in the surrounding rock mass of an excavation, which is removable and oriented in an unsafe manner such that it is likely to move into an opening unless support is provided. However, the use of the DRKBA code to determine potential rockfall data at the repository horizon during the postclosure period has several limitations: (1) The DRKBA code cannot explicitly apply dynamic loads due to seismic ground motion. (2) The DRKBA code cannot explicitly apply loads due to thermal stress. (3) The DRKBA

  13. Drift Degradation Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Kicker

    2004-09-16

    Degradation of underground openings as a function of time is a natural and expected occurrence for any subsurface excavation. Over time, changes occur to both the stress condition and the strength of the rock mass due to several interacting factors. Once the factors contributing to degradation are characterized, the effects of drift degradation can typically be mitigated through appropriate design and maintenance of the ground support system. However, for the emplacement drifts of the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, it is necessary to characterize drift degradation over a 10,000-year period, which is well beyond the functional period of the ground support system. This document provides an analysis of the amount of drift degradation anticipated in repository emplacement drifts for discrete events and time increments extending throughout the 10,000-year regulatory period for postclosure performance. This revision of the drift degradation analysis was developed to support the license application and fulfill specific agreement items between the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The earlier versions of ''Drift Degradation Analysis'' (BSC 2001 [DIRS 156304]) relied primarily on the DRKBA numerical code, which provides for a probabilistic key-block assessment based on realistic fracture patterns determined from field mapping in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) at Yucca Mountain. A key block is defined as a critical block in the surrounding rock mass of an excavation, which is removable and oriented in an unsafe manner such that it is likely to move into an opening unless support is provided. However, the use of the DRKBA code to determine potential rockfall data at the repository horizon during the postclosure period has several limitations: (1) The DRKBA code cannot explicitly apply dynamic loads due to seismic ground motion. (2) The DRKBA code cannot explicitly apply loads due to thermal

  14. Auditory memory function in expert chess players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

    2015-01-01

    Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time.

  15. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  16. System and method for creating expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Peter M. (Inventor); Luczak, Edward C. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

  17. Methodology toward second generation expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dormoy, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

  18. Structured tradeoffs preference elicitation: Evaluating CRWMS design and operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, H.

    1994-01-01

    Preliminary studies over the past few years have yielded multiple design and operations alternatives for the planned Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Waste isolation, pre-closure health and safety, and life cycle cost are among the many factors considered in developing these alternatives. The task of CRWMS designers is complicated by substantial heat and nuclear radiation energy output of the spent nuclear fuel and high level waste intended for disposal in an underground repository. Not only must the usual effectiveness, operability and cost objectives be balanced, but done so in the context of a constantly changing environment. Particular alternatives sometimes are favored by virtue of their outstanding performance relative to one of these factors. The Ultimate success of the potential repository, however, depends on reaching a defensible and traceable final decision through simultaneous and systematic weighing of all relevant factors. This paper documents the outcome of Structured Tradeoffs Preference (STP) elicitation as a method for the simultaneous and systematic weighing of factors relevant to repository thermal loading, waste package (WP) design, and emplacement mode decisions. The study provided a low-cost early indication of directions of further research on CRWMS design and operations likely to be most fruitful. The method of STP elicitation was utilized to avoid potential biases documented in other efforts which use only unstructured decision making, or open-quotes well-considered judgmentclose quotes. The STP elicitation procedure presented here complements the use of a parameter network-model pyramid suggested elsewhere in this proceedings to provide a framework for precisely articulating technical questions needing answers. It also forms an independent crosscheck of systems engineering study results and performance assessment modeling

  19. Developments in polymer degradation - 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grassie, N.

    1987-01-01

    A selection of topics which are representative of the continually expanding area of polymer degradation is presented. The aspects emphasised include the products of degradation of specific polymers, degradation by high energy radiation and mechanical forces, fire retardant studies and the special role of small radicals in degradation processes. (author)

  20. Sample Size for Measuring Grammaticality in Preschool Children from Picture-Elicited Language Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Sarita L.; Guo, Ling-Yu

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a shorter language sample elicited with fewer pictures (i.e., 7) would yield a percent grammatical utterances (PGU) score similar to that computed from a longer language sample elicited with 15 pictures for 3-year-old children. Method: Language samples were elicited by asking forty…

  1. Graphical User Interfaces Reverse Engineering for Requirements Elicitation - Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol Jaimes

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper exhibits a synthesis of the use of legacy systems GUI reverse engineering as a tool to software requirements elicitation. It presents a literature review describing the approaches related to the topic. This work primary goal is to determine the major investigations in this area, and if there are techniques focused exclusively on the observation of the legacy applications GUI to obtain software requirements in a standard format, without the use of source code, data structures, documentation or sophisticated algorithms for the application analysis.

  2. Electronic health records: eliciting behavioral health providers' beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shank, Nancy; Willborn, Elizabeth; Pytlikzillig, Lisa; Noel, Harmonijoie

    2012-04-01

    Interviews with 32 community behavioral health providers elicited perceived benefits and barriers of using electronic health records. Themes identified were (a) quality of care, (b) privacy and security, and (c) delivery of services. Benefits to quality of care were mentioned by 100% of the providers, and barriers by 59% of providers. Barriers involving privacy and security concerns were mentioned by 100% of providers, and benefits by 22%. Barriers to delivery of services were mentioned by 97% of providers, and benefits by 66%. Most providers (81%) expressed overall positive support for electronic behavioral health records.

  3. Prior Elicitation, Assessment and Inference with a Dirichlet Prior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Evans

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Methods are developed for eliciting a Dirichlet prior based upon stating bounds on the individual probabilities that hold with high prior probability. This approach to selecting a prior is applied to a contingency table problem where it is demonstrated how to assess the prior with respect to the bias it induces as well as how to check for prior-data conflict. It is shown that the assessment of a hypothesis via relative belief can easily take into account what it means for the falsity of the hypothesis to correspond to a difference of practical importance and provide evidence in favor of a hypothesis.

  4. Eliciting Audience's Experience to Improve Interactive Art Installation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baharin, Hanif; Morrison, Ann

    2006-01-01

    Designing with the users in mind is one of the widely accepted design practices in the Interaction Design field. On the other hand, it can be said that audience's experience is the heart of an interactive art. Since Interaction Design has shown that user's involvement in the design process can...... be beneficial, it is speculated that involving the audiences in the creative process of developing an interactive art piece can make the artist improve the art in general and the audience's experience in particular. In this paper, the experience of eliciting the experience of the audiences of an interactive art...

  5. Defining DSL design principles for enhancing the requirements elicitation process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Arroyo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available La Elicitación de Requisitos propicia el entendimiento de las necesidades de los usuarios con respecto a un desarrollo de software. Los métodos que se emplean provienen de las ciencias sociales por lo que se carece de una retroalimentación ejecutable. Consecuentemente, la primera versión del software podría no cumplir con las expectativas. El uso de DSLs como herramientas para el descubrimiento de requisitos es una idea aceptada, desafortunadamente, muy pocos trabajos en la literatura se enfocan en la definición de principios de diseño de DSLs. En este trabajo planteamos principios de diseño de DSLs orientados a la elicitación de requisitos, enseguida, generamos casos de prueba en ANTLR, Ruby y Curry. También, enunciamos el perfil que debe tener el nuevo analista de software. Con ello, se incrementa la retroalimentación entre los involucrados en el desarrollo de software y se mejora el producto.Requirements elicitation is concerned with learning and understanding the needs of users w.r.t. a new software development. Frequently the methods employed for requirements elicitation are adapted from areas like social sciences that do not include executable (prototype based on feedback. As a consequence, it is relatively common to discover that the first release does not fit the requirements defined at the beginning of the project. Using domain-specific languages (DSLs as an auxiliary tool for requirements elicitation is a commonly well accepted idea. Unfortunately, there are few works in the literature devoted to the definition of design principles for DSLs to be experienced in the frameworks for DSL developing such as ANTLR, Ruby, and Curry. We propose design principles for the DSL development (regardless of paradigm which are sufficient to model the domain in a requirements phase. Further more we enunciate a new profile for the requirements analyst and a set of elicitation steps. The use of DSLs not only giveus an immediate feedback with

  6. Integrating Effectiveness, Transparency and Fairness into a Value Elicitation Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortier, Michael; Sheng, Grant

    2001-01-01

    As part of the evaluation of Canada's proposed nuclear fuel waste disposal concept, the Federal Environmental Assessment and Review Panel (FEARP) undertook an extensive, nation-wide public hearing process. The hearing process itself was contentious and has been criticized on numerous grounds. It is our contention that the fundamental weakness of the FEARP process was that it was designed as an information-based forum, as opposed to a value-based forum.' Our observations and analyses of these hearings indicate that the FEARP envisioned a different purpose and a different outcome of this process than the public in general. As a result, public acceptability for the Concept or even the assessment process itself was not garnered due to a failure in the process to identify, address and incorporate values. To address this, we proposed a seven-step value elicitation process specifically designed to assess public acceptability of the disposal concept. An unfortunate consequence of the flawed public consultation process employed by the FEARP is that it is unclear exactly what it is the public finds unacceptable. Both from discussions and observations, it is difficult to ascertain whether the unacceptability lies with the Concept itself and/or the process by which the Concept was to be assessed. As a result, there is uncertainty as to what questions should be asked and how should the 'unacceptability' be addressed. In other words, does Canada need a new concept? Does Canada need to develop a mechanism for assessing the public acceptability of the Concept? Or both? The inability of the current process to answer such fundamental questions demonstrates the importance of developing an effective public acceptability and consultation process. We submit that, to create an acceptable Public Participation mechanism, it is necessary to found the construction of such a mechanism on the principles of effectiveness, transparency and fairness. Moreover, we believe that the larger decision

  7. Unattractive infant faces elicit negative affect from adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schein, Stevie S; Langlois, Judith H

    2015-02-01

    We examined the relationship between infant attractiveness and adult affect by investigating whether differing levels of infant facial attractiveness elicit facial muscle movement correlated with positive and negative affect from adults (N=87) using electromyography. Unattractive infant faces evoked significantly more corrugator supercilii and levator labii superioris movement (physiological correlates of negative affect) than attractive infant faces. These results suggest that unattractive infants may be at risk for negative affective responses from adults, though the relationship between those responses and caregiving behavior remains elusive. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Integrating Effectiveness, Transparency and Fairness into a Value Elicitation Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortier, Michael; Sheng, Grant [York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Faculty of Environmental Studies; Collins, Alison [York Centre for Applied Sustainability, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    As part of the evaluation of Canada's proposed nuclear fuel waste disposal concept, the Federal Environmental Assessment and Review Panel (FEARP) undertook an extensive, nation-wide public hearing process. The hearing process itself was contentious and has been criticized on numerous grounds. It is our contention that the fundamental weakness of the FEARP process was that it was designed as an information-based forum, as opposed to a value-based forum.' Our observations and analyses of these hearings indicate that the FEARP envisioned a different purpose and a different outcome of this process than the public in general. As a result, public acceptability for the Concept or even the assessment process itself was not garnered due to a failure in the process to identify, address and incorporate values. To address this, we proposed a seven-step value elicitation process specifically designed to assess public acceptability of the disposal concept. An unfortunate consequence of the flawed public consultation process employed by the FEARP is that it is unclear exactly what it is the public finds unacceptable. Both from discussions and observations, it is difficult to ascertain whether the unacceptability lies with the Concept itself and/or the process by which the Concept was to be assessed. As a result, there is uncertainty as to what questions should be asked and how should the 'unacceptability' be addressed. In other words, does Canada need a new concept? Does Canada need to develop a mechanism for assessing the public acceptability of the Concept? Or both? The inability of the current process to answer such fundamental questions demonstrates the importance of developing an effective public acceptability and consultation process. We submit that, to create an acceptable Public Participation mechanism, it is necessary to found the construction of such a mechanism on the principles of effectiveness, transparency and fairness. Moreover, we believe that

  9. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  10. Endocytic collagen degradation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Daniel H.; Jürgensen, Henrik J.; Ingvarsen, Signe Ziir

    2012-01-01

    it crucially important to understand both the collagen synthesis and turnover mechanisms in this condition. Here we show that the endocytic collagen receptor, uPARAP/Endo180, is a major determinant in governing the balance between collagen deposition and degradation. Cirrhotic human livers displayed a marked...... up-regulation of uPARAP/Endo180 in activated fibroblasts and hepatic stellate cells located close to the collagen deposits. In a hepatic stellate cell line, uPARAP/Endo180 was shown to be active in, and required for, the uptake and intracellular degradation of collagen. To evaluate the functional...... groups of mice clearly revealed a fibrosis protective role of uPARAP/Endo180. This effect appeared to directly reflect the activity of the collagen receptor, since no compensatory events were noted when comparing the mRNA expression profiles of the two groups of mice in an array system focused on matrix-degrading...

  11. Degradation of fluorotelomer alcohols

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellis, David A; Martin, Jonathan W; De Silva, Amila O

    2004-01-01

    Human and animal tissues collected in urban and remote global locations contain persistent and bioaccumulative perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs). The source of PFCAs was previously unknown. Here we present smog chamber studies that indicate fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) can degrade...... in the atmosphere to yield a homologous series of PFCAs. Atmospheric degradation of FTOHs is likely to contribute to the widespread dissemination of PFCAs. After their bioaccumulation potential is accounted for, the pattern of PFCAs yielded from FTOHs could account for the distinct contamination profile of PFCAs....... The significance of the gas-phase peroxy radical cross reactions that produce PFCAs has not been recognized previously. Such reactions are expected to occur during the atmospheric degradation of all polyfluorinated materials, necessitating a reexamination of the environmental fate and impact of this important...

  12. Motor degradation prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor's duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures

  13. PWR degraded core analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1982-04-01

    A review is presented of the various phenomena involved in degraded core accidents and the ensuing transport of fission products from the fuel to the primary circuit and the containment. The dominant accident sequences found in the PWR risk studies published to date are briefly described. Then chapters deal with the following topics: the condition and behaviour of water reactor fuel during normal operation and at the commencement of degraded core accidents; the generation of hydrogen from the Zircaloy-steam and the steel-steam reactions; the way in which the core deforms and finally melts following loss of coolant; debris relocation analysis; containment integrity; fission product behaviour during a degraded core accident. (U.K.)

  14. Materials ageing degradation programme in japan and proactive ageing management in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, T.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive and preventive maintenance technologies are increasingly of importance for the long term operation (LTO) of Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants. In order for the realization LTO to be successful, it is essential that aging degradation phenomena should be properly managed by using adequate maintenance programs based on foreseeing the aging phenomena and evaluating their rates of development, where Nuclear Power Plants can be continued to operate beyond the original design life depending upon the regulatory authority rules. In combination with Periodic Safety Review (PSR) and adequate maintenance program, a plant life can be extended to 60 years or more. Plant Life Management (PLiM) is based upon various maintenance program as well as systematic safety review updated based upon the state of the art of science and technology. One of the potential life time limiting issue would be materials ageing degradation and therefore an extensive efforts have been paid world-widely. In 2007, NISA launched a national program on Enhanced Ageing Management Program and 4 nationwide clusters were formed to carry out the national program where materials ageing degradation was one of the major topics. In addition to these degradation modes, one important activities in this program is proactive materials degradation management directed by the author which is a kind of the extension program of NRC PMDA program based upon more fundamental approach by a systematic elicitation by the experts nominated from all over the world. NISA program can be divided into two phases, one is from fiscal years (FY) 2006 - 2010 and the other FY 2011. Later phase is focusing more on System Safety due to Fukushima NPP accident. The main objectives of the Phase I is to evaluate potential and complex degradation phenomena and their mechanisms in order to identify future risks of component aging in nuclear power plants. The following items are of particular concern in this phase: (a) investigation of

  15. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2017-06-01

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  16. Recruiting experts for technical assistance rogramme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1974-01-01

    One of the objectives of the IAEA is the provision of technical assistance to its Member States to carry out their peaceful nuclear activities more efficiently and safely. This involves looking for and supplying experts, equipment and fellowships. Since 1958 the Agency has provided the services of more than 1800 experts valued at $11.5 million, 4300 fellowships valued at $14.3 million, and equipment worth $10.8 million. The efficiency of the programme can only be increased by a more prompt consideration of proposals forwarded by the Agency, and the continuing co-operation from national Governments and private institutions. The IAEA recruits an average of 200 experts a year to implement its Regular Technical Assistance Programme. These projects are financed by voluntary contributions from Member States, and by the United Nations Development Programme for those projects for which the IAEA is the executing agency

  17. Meanings & motives. Experts debating tobacco addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mars, Sarah G; Ling, Pamela M

    2008-10-01

    Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a "habituation" in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately.

  18. Expert system aided operator's mental activities training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.; Gese, A.

    1994-01-01

    The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author). 6 refs, 6 figs

  19. An expert system in medical diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raboanary, R.; Raoelina Andriambololona; Soffer, J.; Raboanary, J.

    2001-01-01

    Health problem is still a crucial one in some countries. It is so important that it becomes a major handicap in economic and social development. In order to solve this problem, we have conceived an expert system that we called MITSABO, which means TO HEAL, to help the physicians to diagnose tropical diseases. It is clear that by extending the data base and the knowledge base, we can extend the application of the software to more general areas. In our expert system, we used the concept of 'self organization' of neural network based on the determination of the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors associated to the correlation matrix XX t . The projection of the data on the two first eigenvectors gives a classification of the diseases which is used to get a first approach in the diagnosis of the patient. This diagnosis is improved by using an expert system which is built from the knowledge base.

  20. An expert system approach for safety diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Sun, B.K.H.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system was developed with the intent to provide real-time information about an accident to an operator who is in the process of diagnosing and bringing that accident under control. Explicit use was made of probabilistic risk analysis techniques and plant accident response information in constructing this system. The expert system developed contains 70 logic rules and provides contextual messages during simulated accident sequences and logic sequence information on the entire sequence in graphical form for accident diagnosis. The present analysis focuses on integrated control system-related transients with Babcock and Wilcox-type reactors. While the system developed here is limited in extent and was built for a composite reactor, it demonstrates that an expert system may enhance the operator's capability in the control room

  1. Advisory expert system for test rig operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zielczynski, P.

    1994-01-01

    The advisory expert system MAESTRO (Modular Advisory Expert System for Test Rig Operator) has been designed to guide the operator of large experimental installation during start-up, steady state and shut down. The installation is located in the research reactor MARIA in the Institute of Atomic Energy in Swierk, Poland. The system acquires and analyses on line signals from installation and performs two tasks in real time: leading the operator and monitoring of the installation (including signal validation). Systems tasks, architecture and knowledge representation concepts are described. The system is based on expert systems techniques what makes in phases of continuous change of process parameters and it has been achieved by special knowledge representation allowing its dynamical modification. (author). 147 refs, 42 figs, 5 tab

  2. An expert system for diesel generator diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bley, D.C.; Read, J.W.; Kaplan, S.; Liming, J.K.; Brosee, N.M.; Hanley, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    The idea of developing artificial intelligence (AI) systems to capture the knowledge of human experts is receiving much attention these days. The idea is even more attractive when important expertise resides within a single individual, especially one who is nearing retirement and who has not otherwise recorded or passed along his important knowledge and thought processes. The diesel generators at Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station have performed exceptionally well, primarily due to the care and attention of one man. Therefore, the authors are constructing an expert system for the diagnosis of diesel generator problems at Pilgrim. This paper includes a description of the expert system design and operation, examples from the knowledge base, and sample diagnoses, so the reader can observe the process in action

  3. Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

    2006-11-01

    An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

  4. Poor Agreement Among Expert Witnesses in Bile Duct Injury Malpractice Litigation An Expert Panel Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

  5. Poor agreement among expert witnesses in bile duct injury malpractice litigation: an expert panel survey.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

  6. Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniels, Timothy; Mills, Tamsin; Gregory, Robin; Ohlson, Dan

    2012-12-01

    We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Antifoam degradation testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, D. P. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL); Zamecnik, J. R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL); Newell, D. D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL); Williams, M. S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL)

    2015-08-20

    This report describes the results of testing to quantify the degradation products resulting from the dilution and storage of Antifoam 747. Antifoam degradation is of concern to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) due to flammable decomposition products in the vapor phase of the Chemical Process Cell vessels, as well as the collection of flammable and organic species in the offgas condensate. The discovery that hexamethyldisiloxane is formed from the antifoam decomposition was the basis for a Potential Inadequacy in the Safety Analysis declaration by the DWPF.

  8. Detection of pump degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casada, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    There are a variety of stressors that can affect the operation of centrifugal pumps. These can generally be classified as: Mechanical; Hydraulic; Tribological; Chemical; and Other (including those associated with the pump driver). Although these general stressors are active in essentially all centrifugal pumps, the stressor level and the extent of wear and degradation can vary greatly. Parameters that affect the extent of stressor activity are manifold. In order to assure the long-term operational readiness of a pump, it is important to both understand the nature and magnitude of the specific degradation mechanisms and to monitor the performance of the pump

  9. Temporal logics and real time expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, J A

    1996-10-01

    This paper introduces temporal logics. Due to the eternal compromise between expressive adequacy and reasoning efficiency that must decided upon in any application, full (first order logic or modal logic based) temporal logics are frequently not suitable. This is especially true in real time expert systems, where a fixed (and usually small) response time must be guaranteed. One such expert system, Fagan's VM, is reviewed, and a delineation is given of how to formally describe and reason with time in medical protocols. It is shown that Petri net theory is a useful tool to check the correctness of formalised protocols.

  10. Distributed expert systems for nuclear reactor control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otaduy, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    A network of distributed expert systems is the heart of a prototype supervisory control architecture developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for an advanced multimodular reactor. Eight expert systems encode knowledge on signal acquisition, diagnostics, safeguards, and control strategies in a hybrid rule-based, multiprocessing and object-oriented distributed computing environment. An interactive simulation of a power block consisting of three reactors and one turbine provides a realistic, testbed for performance analysis of the integrated control system in real-time. Implementation details and representative reactor transients are discussed

  11. Expert System Software Assistant for Payload Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Mark N.

    1997-01-01

    The broad objective of this expert system software based application was to demonstrate the enhancements and cost savings that can be achieved through expert system software utilization in a spacecraft ground control center. Spacelab provided a valuable proving ground for this advanced software technology; a technology that will be exploited and expanded for future ISS operations. Our specific focus was on demonstrating payload cadre command and control efficiency improvements through the use of "smart" software which monitors flight telemetry, provides enhanced schematic-based data visualization, and performs advanced engineering data analysis.

  12. An expert system for USNRC emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRO's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

  13. Expert system for USNRC emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRC's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

  14. Oracle Hyperion Interactive Reporting 11 Expert Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Edward J

    2011-01-01

    This book is written in a simple, easy to understand format with screenshots, code samples, and step-by-step explanations that will guide you through the advanced techniques used by the experts. If you are an Oracle Hyperion Interactive reporting user or developer looking to become an expert in the product, then this book is for you. You will require a basic knowledge of Interactive Reporting, as this book starts with a brief overview and then dives into advanced techniques, functions, and best practices. Beginner users should consult The Business Analyst's Guide to Oracle Hyperion Interactive

  15. AN EXPERT SYSTEM USED IN DESIGN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüdayim BAŞAK

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, an expert system used in computer aided design has been developed. In the developed program, the features which are used in the models prepared by a feature based design program are evaluated by the expert system module and are used in part modeling after determining of their compatibilty according to the rules. This program, particulary for those who do not know or know very little manufacturing stages, accomplishes the duty of informing and directing them. The program developed warns the user for design mistakes made during modeling.

  16. EXPERT SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NAN Anca-Petruţa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an

  17. A computerized expert system for mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, V.P.; Dines, K.A.; Bassett, L.W.

    1988-01-01

    The authors have developed a computer-based expert system to aid in the interpretation of mammograms, breast sonograms, and clinical findings. The radiologist enters clinical and image data into the artificial intelligence system and receives a prediction of the etiology of lesions seen on breast imaging studies. This prototype interactive system has undergone preliminary clinical testing and evaluation. Ultimately, a more refined and complex system will be of value in mammography education, for general radiologists without ready access to mammography experts, for paramedical personnel, and for all mammographers in need of a breast imaging database and reporting systems

  18. The Management and Security Expert (MASE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark D.; Barr, Stanley J.; Gryphon, Coranth D.; Keegan, Jeff; Kniker, Catherine A.; Krolak, Patrick D.

    1991-01-01

    The Management and Security Expert (MASE) is a distributed expert system that monitors the operating systems and applications of a network. It is capable of gleaning the information provided by the different operating systems in order to optimize hardware and software performance; recognize potential hardware and/or software failure, and either repair the problem before it becomes an emergency, or notify the systems manager of the problem; and monitor applications and known security holes for indications of an intruder or virus. MASE can eradicate much of the guess work of system management.

  19. Subject Matter Expert Workshop to Identify Cybersecurity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report In recognition of the growing need to better address cyber risk and cyber management, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) held a Subject Matter Expert Workshop to Identify Cybersecurity Research Gaps and Needs of the Nation’s Water and Wastewater Systems Sector on March 30th and 31st, 2016, at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, D.C. The workshop was designed to create a forum for subject matter experts (SMEs) to exchange ideas and address important cybersecurity challenges facing the water sector.

  20. Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

  1. Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

    2014-01-01

    to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

  2. Emotion elicitation: A comparison of pictures and films

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike Katrin Uhrig

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available AbstractPictures and film clips are widely used and accepted stimuli to elicit emotions. Based on theoretical arguments it is often assumed that the emotional effects of films exceed those of pictures, but to date this assumption has not been investigated directly. The aim of the present study was to compare pictures and films in terms of their capacity to induce emotions verified by means of explicit measures. Stimuli were (a single pictures presented for 6 s, (b a set of three consecutive pictures with emotionally congruent contents presented for 2 s each, (c short film clips with a duration of 6 s. A total of 144 participants rated their emotion and arousal states following stimulus presentation. Repeated-measures ANOVAs revealed that the film clips and 3-picture version were as effective as the classical 1-picture method to elicit positive emotions, however, modulation towards positive valence was little. Modulation toward negative valence was more effective in general. Film clips were less effective than pictorial stimuli in producing the corresponding emotion states (all p < .001 and were less arousing (all p ≤ .02. Possible reasons for these unexpected results are discussed.

  3. Emotion Elicitation: A Comparison of Pictures and Films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhrig, Meike K; Trautmann, Nadine; Baumgärtner, Ulf; Treede, Rolf-Detlef; Henrich, Florian; Hiller, Wolfgang; Marschall, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Pictures and film clips are widely used and accepted stimuli to elicit emotions. Based on theoretical arguments it is often assumed that the emotional effects of films exceed those of pictures, but to date this assumption has not been investigated directly. The aim of the present study was to compare pictures and films in terms of their capacity to induce emotions verified by means of explicit measures. Stimuli were (a) single pictures presented for 6 s, (b) a set of three consecutive pictures with emotionally congruent contents presented for 2 s each, (c) short film clips with a duration of 6 s. A total of 144 participants rated their emotion and arousal states following stimulus presentation. Repeated-measures ANOVAs revealed that the film clips and 3-picture version were as effective as the classical 1-picture method to elicit positive emotions, however, modulation toward positive valence was little. Modulation toward negative valence was more effective in general. Film clips were less effective than pictorial stimuli in producing the corresponding emotion states (all p < 0.001) and were less arousing (all p ≤ 0.02). Possible reasons for these unexpected results are discussed.

  4. Experimental elicitation with hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde-containing deodorants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Pia Haslund; Jensen, Charlotte Devantier; Rastogi, Suresh; Andersen, Klaus Ejner; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2007-03-01

    Hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) known as Lyral is a frequent allergen. It is used in more than 50% of marketed deodorants. The aim of the present study was to determine elicitation thresholds for HICC under simulated conditions of deodorant use. 15 patients with previously diagnosed contact allergy to HICC were patch tested with 5 solutions of HICC-scented and HICC-unscented deodorants. Patients and 10 healthy controls performed a use test in the axillae using deodorants scented with HICC in increasing concentrations and unscented deodorants as control. The concentration of HICC was increased every second week (200, 600, and 1800 p.p.m.) until either a reaction developed or for 6 weeks. 14 patients completed the study, and all developed unilateral eczema from the HICC-containing deodorant, while controls were all negative (P= 0.004). In 9/14 patients, a positive use test developed during the first 2 weeks to the deodorant containing 200 p.p.m. HICC. Positive correlations were found between the day of positive use and patch test threshold concentration of the HICC solutions (r= 0.71, P= 0.01) as well as the patch test thresholds of the HICC-scented deodorants (r= 0.74, P= 0.007). In conclusion, HICC elicits allergic contact dermatitis in a high proportion of sensitized individuals at common usage concentrations in deodorants.

  5. Vibrio elicits targeted transcriptional responses from copepod hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almada, Amalia A; Tarrant, Ann M

    2016-06-01

    Copepods are abundant crustaceans that harbor diverse bacterial communities, yet the nature of their interactions with microbiota are poorly understood. Here, we report that Vibrio elicits targeted transcriptional responses in the estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis We pre-treated E. affinis with an antibiotic cocktail and exposed them to either a zooplankton specialist (Vibrio sp. F10 9ZB36) or a free-living species (Vibrio ordalii 12B09) for 24 h. We then identified via RNA-Seq a total of 78 genes that were differentially expressed following Vibrio exposure, including homologs of C-type lectins, chitin-binding proteins and saposins. The response differed between the two Vibrio treatments, with the greatest changes elicited upon inoculation with V. sp. F10 We suggest that these differentially regulated genes play important roles in cuticle integrity, the innate immune response, and general stress response, and that their expression may enable E. affinis to recognize and regulate symbiotic vibrios. We further report that V. sp. F10 culturability is specifically altered upon colonization of E. affinis These findings suggest that rather than acting as passive environmental vectors, copepods discriminately interact with vibrios, which may ultimately impact the abundance and activity of copepod-associated bacteria. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Interviewing strategically to elicit admissions from guilty suspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekin, Serra; Granhag, Pär Anders; Strömwall, Leif; Giolla, Erik Mac; Vrij, Aldert; Hartwig, Maria

    2015-06-01

    In this article we introduce a novel interviewing tactic to elicit admissions from guilty suspects. By influencing the suspects' perception of the amount of evidence the interviewer holds against them, we aimed to shift the suspects' counterinterrogation strategies from less to more forthcoming. The proposed tactic (SUE-Confrontation) is a development of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) framework and aims to affect the suspects' perception by confronting them with statement-evidence inconsistencies. Participants (N = 90) were asked to perform several mock criminal tasks before being interviewed using 1 of 3 interview techniques: (a) SUE-Confrontation, (b) Early Disclosure of Evidence, or (c) No Disclosure of Evidence. As predicted, the SUE-Confrontation interview generated more statement-evidence inconsistencies from suspects than the Early Disclosure interview. Importantly, suspects in the SUE-Confrontation condition (vs. Early and No disclosure conditions) admitted more self-incriminating information and also perceived the interviewer to have had more information about the critical phase of the crime (the phase where the interviewer lacked evidence). The findings show the adaptability of the SUE-technique and how it may be used as a tool for eliciting admissions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Inhibition of autophagy overcomes the nanotoxicity elicited by cadmium-based quantum dots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jiajun; Sun, Yun; Wang, Shaofei; Li, Yubin; Zeng, Xian; Cao, Zhonglian; Yang, Ping; Song, Ping; Wang, Ziyu; Xian, Zongshu; Gao, Hongjian; Chen, Qicheng; Cui, Daxiang; Ju, Dianwen

    2016-02-01

    Cadmium-based quantum dots (QDs) have shown their values in disease diagnosis, cellular and molecular tracking, small-animal imaging, and therapeutic drug delivery. However, the potential safety problems of QDs, mainly due to their nanotoxicities by unclear mechanisms, have greatly limited its applications. To reverse this situation, we investigated the underlying biological mechanisms of the toxicity of Quantum Dots CdTe/CdS 655 (QDs 655) in this work. QDs 655 was found to elicit nanotoxicity in vitro and in vivo. During the process, autophagy was activated, which was characterized by three main stages of autophagic flux including formation of autophagosomes, lysosomes fused with autophagosomes, and degradation of autophagosomes by lysosomes. Furthermore, the autophagic cell death was demonstrated in vitro under QDs 655 treatment while inhibition of autophagy by pharmacological inhibitors or genetic approaches could attenuate the toxicity induced by QDs 655 in vitro and in vivo. These results indicated that autophagic flux and autophagic cell death were triggered by QDs 655, which elucidated the critical role of autophagy in QDs 655 induced toxicity. Our data may suggest the approach to overcome the toxicity of QDs and other nanoparticles by autophagy inhibition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Drift Degradation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.H. Nieder-Westermann

    2005-01-01

    The outputs from the drift degradation analysis support scientific analyses, models, and design calculations, including the following: (1) Abstraction of Drift Seepage; (2) Seismic Consequence Abstraction; (3) Structural Stability of a Drip Shield Under Quasi-Static Pressure; and (4) Drip Shield Structural Response to Rock Fall. This report has been developed in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The drift degradation analysis includes the development and validation of rockfall models that approximate phenomenon associated with various components of rock mass behavior anticipated within the repository horizon. Two drift degradation rockfall models have been developed: the rockfall model for nonlithophysal rock and the rockfall model for lithophysal rock. These models reflect the two distinct types of tuffaceous rock at Yucca Mountain. The output of this modeling and analysis activity documents the expected drift deterioration for drifts constructed in accordance with the repository layout configuration (BSC 2004 [DIRS 172801])

  9. Bacterial Degradation of Pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Berith Elkær

    could potentially improve bioremediation of BAM. An important prerequisite for bioaugmentation is the potential to produce the degrader strain at large quantities within reasonable time. The aim of manuscript II, was to optimize the growth medium for Aminobacter MSH1 and to elucidate optimal growth...

  10. Radiation degradation of silk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishida, Kazushige; Kamiishi, Youichi [Textile Research Institute of Gunma, Kiryu, Gunma (Japan); Takeshita, Hidefumi; Yoshii, Fumio; Kume, Tamikazu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Takasaki, Gunma (Japan). Takasaki Radiation Chemistry Research Establishment

    2001-03-01

    Silk fibroin powder was prepared from irradiated silk fibroin fiber by means of only physical treatment. Silk fibroin fiber irradiated with an accelerated electron beam in the dose range of 250 - 1000 kGy was pulverized by using a ball mill. Unirradiated silk fibroin fiber was not pulverized at all. But the more irradiation was increased, the more the conversion efficiency from fiber to powder was increased. The conversion efficiency of silk fibroin fiber irradiated 1000 kGy in oxygen was 94%. Silk fibroin powder shows remarkable solubility, which dissolved 57% into water of ambient temperature. It is a very interesting phenomenon that silk fibroin which did not treat with chemicals gets solubility only being pulverized. In order to study mechanism of solubilization of silk fibroin powder, amino acid component of soluble part of silk fibroin powder was analyzed. The more irradiation dose up, the more glycine or alanine degraded, but degradation fraction reached bounds about 50%. Other amino acids were degraded only 20% even at the maximum. To consider crystal construction of silk fibroin, it is suggested that irradiation on silk fibroin fiber selectively degrades glycine and alanine in amorphous region, which makes it possible to pulverize and to dissolve silk fibroin powder. (author)

  11. Applying Subject Matter Expertise (SME) Elicitation Techniques to TRAC Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing ”. English. In: Annals of Operations... electronically . Typically, in responding to survey items, experts are not expected to elaborate beyond providing responses in the format requested in the...between them, however irrelevant to probability Kynn and Ayyub.84 For example, an electronic jamming device might disrupt a cell phone signal at certain

  12. Experts and consensus in social science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martini, C.; Boumans, M.

    2014-01-01

    This book brings together the research of philosophers and social scientists. It examines those areas of scientific practice where reliance on the subjective judgment of experts and practitioners is the main source of useful knowledge to address, and, possibly, bring solutions to social problems. A

  13. Expert advisory services to other countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orstein, Roberto M.

    1998-01-01

    Argentina has provided expert services in the nuclear field to almost all the countries of Latin America and to many countries of other continents, in the framework of bilateral and multilateral cooperation agreements. A short history of these services is outlined and some statistical data are presented

  14. EXPERT SYSTEMS SHOW PROMISE FOR CUSTOMER INQUIRIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This article describes results of an agreement between the North Penn Water Authority in Lansdale, Pa., and the US Environmental Protection Agency, Drinking Water Research Division, Cincinnati, Ohio, to study use of expert systems technology in a water utility. The threeyear stud...

  15. Decisions, Decisions: A Schema for Expert Decisionmaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stape, Christopher J.

    1999-01-01

    Presents a schema for expert decisionmaking that can be used as a performance support tool. The ringshaped schema can be used in two ways: (1) beginning at the center with problemsetting and working outward to other supporting factors, or (2) skimming over the factors located in the outer ring to find a topic related to information about the…

  16. Expert finder systems – design and use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykke, Marianne; Weidel, Eva

    2011-01-01

    The survey aimed at investigating how companies deal with the challenge of sharing of employees’ expert knowledge. We wanted to find out which tools are being used to register, communicate and search employees as a knowledge resource. Specifically, we wanted to know how service organizations use ...

  17. The responsibility of the radiation protection expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varescon, M.

    2008-01-01

    After having recalled the two main different types of responsibility in the French law system (civil liability and criminal responsibility), and how criminal law has been gradually introduced in companies, the author analyzes and describes how the radiation protection expert's responsibility is tightly related to that of his employer, and how both can be committed on a disciplinary and criminal level

  18. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  19. Fuzzy Expert System to Characterize Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hecke, T.

    2011-01-01

    Students wanting to succeed in higher education are required to adopt an adequate learning approach. By analyzing individual learning characteristics, teachers can give personal advice to help students identify their learning success factors. An expert system based on fuzzy logic can provide economically viable solutions to help students identify…

  20. Laserjet Printer Troubleshooting Expert System | Adesola | West ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper model an expert system called LAPTEX for troubleshooting LaserJet printers' faults. Today, with the innumerable advances in information technologies, computerizing printer's fault troubleshooting and identifying faults is far becoming so vital. Also, printers' fault detection is a complicated process that requires a ...