Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

1990-05-01

This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

2011-01-01

Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: → Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. → EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. → EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. → EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. → EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration

Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine; Angulo, Fred; Bin Hamzah, Wan Mansor

2016-01-01

We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so...... it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps...

A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

2003-08-01

This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

Expert Opinion Elicitation Using Fuzzy Set Theory and Distempers-Shaker's Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Donghan

1993-01-01

This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation. The need to work with rare events and limited data is severe accident have led analysts to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approaches using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited data and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining fuzzy probabilities in a manner consistent with the Distempers-Shaper's Theory (DDT). The propagation of fuzzy probabilities through a system is also introduced

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

2017-01-01

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.

2017-08-02

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.

2016-01-01

. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five...... languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values...

Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

2016-01-01

There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V Hampson

Full Text Available Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa.A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.

Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

1996-11-01

Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE's license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE's experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC's geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs

Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

2006-05-10

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

Science.gov (United States)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Catenacci, Michela; Fiorese, Giulia; Verdolini, Elena

2012-01-01

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD and D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models. - Highlights: ► With constant public support at least one solar technology will become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. ► Demonstration should become a key area of funding. ► Without climate policy (carbon price), by 2030 solar technologies will not be cost-competitive. ► The EU will first achieve a breakthrough in production costs. ► The share of electricity production from solar will never exceed 30%.

Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Henrion, Max; Aleluia Reis, Lara

2015-01-01

In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology experts, performed over a period of five years using a range of different methodologies, but all aiming at eliciting expert judgment on the future cost of five key energy technologies and how future costs might be influenced by public R&D investments. To enable researchers and policy makers to use the wealth of collective knowledge obtained through these expert elicitations we develop and present a set of assumptions to harmonize them. We also aggregate expert estimates within each study and across studies to facilitate the comparison. The analysis showed that, as expected, technology costs are expected to go down by 2030 with increasing levels of R&D investments, but that there is not a high level of agreement between individual experts or between studies regarding the technology areas that would benefit the most from R&D investments. This indicates that further study of prospective cost data may be useful to further inform R&D investments. We also found that the contributions of additional studies to the variance of costs in one technology area differed by technology area, suggesting that (barring new information about the downsides of particular forms of elicitations) there may be value in not only including a diverse and relatively large group of experts, but also in using different methods to collect estimates. - Highlights: • Harmonization of unique dataset on probabilistic evolution of key energy technologies. • Expectations about the impact of public R&D investments on future costs. • Highlighting the key uncertainties and a lack of consensus on cost evolution

Structured expert elicitation about Listeria monocytogenes cross-contamination in the environment of retail deli operations in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoelzer, Karin; Oliver, Haley F; Kohl, Larry R; Hollingsworth, Jill; Wells, Martin T; Wiedmann, Martin

2012-07-01

Listeria monocytogenes is among the foodborne pathogens with the highest death toll in the United States. Ready-to-eat foods contaminated at retail are an important source of infection. Environmental sites in retail deli operations can be contaminated. However, commonly contaminated sites are unlikely to come into direct contact with food and the public health relevance of environmental contamination has remained unclear. To identify environmental sites that may pose a considerable cross-contamination risk, to elucidate potential transmission pathways, and to identify knowledge gaps, we performed a structured expert elicitation of 41 experts from state regulatory agencies and the food retail industry with practical experience in retail deli operations. Following the "Delphi" method, the elicitation was performed in three consecutive steps: questionnaire, review and discussion of results, second questionnaire. Hands and gloves were identified as important potential contamination sources. However, bacterial transfers to and from hands or gloves represented a major data gap. Experts agreed about transfer probabilities from cutting boards, scales, deli cases, and deli preparation sinks to product, and about transfer probabilities from floor drains, walk-in cooler floors, and knife racks to food contact surfaces. Comparison of experts' opinions to observational data revealed a tendency among experts with certain demographic characteristics and professional opinions to overestimate prevalence. Experts' votes clearly clustered into separate groups not defined by place of employment, even though industry experts may have been somewhat overrepresented in one cluster. Overall, our study demonstrates the value and caveats of expert elicitation to identify data gaps and prioritize research efforts. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brunekreef Bert

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from coarser fractions, this could affect health impact assessment of air pollution, which would possibly lead to alternative policy options to be considered to reduce the disease burden of PM. Therefore, we organized an expert elicitation workshop to assess the evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to UFP and health endpoints. Methods An expert elicitation on the health effects of ambient ultrafine particle exposure was carried out, focusing on: 1 the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2 the likelihood of potential causal pathways for cardiac events. Based on a systematic peer-nomination procedure, fourteen European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians were selected, of whom twelve attended. They were provided with a briefing book containing key literature. After a group discussion, individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results The likelihood of an independent causal relationship between increased short-term UFP exposure and increased all-cause mortality, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, aggravation of asthma symptoms and lung function decrements was rated medium to high by most experts. The likelihood for long-term UFP exposure to be causally related to all cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and lung cancer was rated slightly lower, mostly medium. The experts rated the likelihood of each of the six identified possible causal pathways separately. Out of these

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

Examining recent expert elicitation, judgment guidelines: Value assumptions and the prospects for rationality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, P.A. [Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE (United States). Dept. of Philosophy

1999-12-01

Any examination of the role of values in decisions on risk must take into consideration the increasing reliance on the expert judgment method. Today, reliance on expert judgment is conspicuously present in the documents and work associated with site characterization of Yucca Mountain as a host for the United States' first high level nuclear waste repository. The NRC encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment's state of the art technology as a complement to deterministic approaches to nuclear regulatory activities. It considers expert judgment as one of those technologies. At the last International Conference on High-Level Nuclear Waste Development several presentations report on the use of expert elicitation sessions held during 1997 at Yucca Mountain. Over a decade ago, few guidelines existed for Department of Energy work in expert judgment. In an analysis of these guidelines, I described the author-advocate's view of the role of values in this method of risk assessment. I suggested that the guidelines assume naive positivism. I noted that the creators of these guidelines also tend toward scientific realism in their apologetic tone that expert judgment falls short of representing the way nature is. I also pointed to a tendency toward what I call a heightened or super-realism. Normal science represents the way the world is and for expert judgment this is only likely so. Expert judgment method, however, is capable of truly capturing expertise in a representative sense. The purpose of this paper is to examine new guidelines from the Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with a view to eliciting the epistemological assumptions about the role of values and the status of objectivity claimed for this method. Do these new guidelines also adopt naive positivism? Does the inability to encounter raw, pure, value-neutral expert judgment, reveal itself in these guidelines? Or do these guidelines adopt the belief that values are not

Examining recent expert elicitation, judgment guidelines: Value assumptions and the prospects for rationality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, P.A.

1999-01-01

Any examination of the role of values in decisions on risk must take into consideration the increasing reliance on the expert judgment method. Today, reliance on expert judgment is conspicuously present in the documents and work associated with site characterization of Yucca Mountain as a host for the United States' first high level nuclear waste repository. The NRC encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment's state of the art technology as a complement to deterministic approaches to nuclear regulatory activities. It considers expert judgment as one of those technologies. At the last International Conference on High-Level Nuclear Waste Development several presentations report on the use of expert elicitation sessions held during 1997 at Yucca Mountain. Over a decade ago, few guidelines existed for Department of Energy work in expert judgment. In an analysis of these guidelines, I described the author-advocate's view of the role of values in this method of risk assessment. I suggested that the guidelines assume naive positivism. I noted that the creators of these guidelines also tend toward scientific realism in their apologetic tone that expert judgment falls short of representing the way nature is. I also pointed to a tendency toward what I call a heightened or super-realism. Normal science represents the way the world is and for expert judgment this is only likely so. Expert judgment method, however, is capable of truly capturing expertise in a representative sense. The purpose of this paper is to examine new guidelines from the Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with a view to eliciting the epistemological assumptions about the role of values and the status of objectivity claimed for this method. Do these new guidelines also adopt naive positivism? Does the inability to encounter raw, pure, value-neutral expert judgment, reveal itself in these guidelines? Or do these guidelines adopt the belief that values are not (and should

Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

2018-06-01

Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

Science.gov (United States)

Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

2017-12-15

The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

2017-01-01

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bratzel, D.R.

1998-04-17

This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bratzel, D.R.

1998-01-01

This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop number-sign 2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goto, Junichi [NUMO, Tokyo (Japan); Kawamura, Hideki [Obayashi Corporation, Tokyo (Japan); Chapman, Neil [MCM Consulting, Baden (Switzerland)

2013-07-01

This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goto, Junichi; Kawamura, Hideki; Chapman, Neil

2013-01-01

This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lamb

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Scour (localised erosion during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

A formal process for elicitation and validation of expert judgments for safety case in the context of spent nuclear fuel management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hukki, K.

2008-09-01

The report introduces a proposal for a formal expert judgment elicitation and validation process for Posiva in the construction of the safety case of the spent fuel disposal facility at Olkiluoto. The procedure has been developed by adopting a systemic, interaction-based approach to elicitation and validation. By taking this view the approach differs from other approaches to formal expert judgment. The concept for the formal procedure has been developed by taking the support for collaboration as the primary requirement for the development. The procedure provides systematic practices and a forum for joint assessment and makes it possible for the domain experts to participate in the discussions and decisions on the validity of the input data. In addition to the experts, also the safety analysts are elicited, in a way. The two-way elicitation enhances mutual understanding between the participants and assures collaboration of equal parties. The procedure provides also conceptual tools that support decision making in validation by enhancing transparency of reasoning. The predefined forms and descriptions serve as shared frames of references and enhance the comprehension of, e.g., the nature and impact of the uncertainties of the input data, the ways of thinking underlying the different disciplines and the significance of one's role as part of the construction of the safety case. Enhanced motivation and transparency of reasoning contribute to improved transfer and integration of knowledge across the disciplinary boundaries and, as a consequence, makes it easier to reach a consensus between the participants. (orig.)

Expert-Opinion Elicitation for the Risk Analysis of Design-Improvement Alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ayyub, Bilal M

2002-01-01

This report documents the expert-opinion elicitation performed to meet risk analysis needs of the lower lock approach sediment management improvement alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam...

Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

1987-08-01

The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

2010-05-23

Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

China has emerged as the global manufacturing center for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. Chinese firms have entered all stages of the supply chain, producing most of the installed solar modules around the world. Meanwhile, production costs are at record lows. The decisions that Chinese solar producers make today will influence the path for the solar industry and its role towards de-carbonization of global energy systems in the years to come. However, to date, there have been no assessments of the future costs and efficiency of solar PV systems produced by the Chinese PV industry. We perform an expert elicitation to assess the technological and non-technological factors that led to the success of China’s silicon PV industry as well as likely future costs and performance. Experts evaluated key metrics such as efficiency, costs, and commercial viability of 17 silicon and non-silicon solar PV technologies by 2030. Silicon-based technologies will continue to be the mainstream product for large-scale electricity generation application in the near future, with module efficiency reaching as high as 23% and production cost as low as 0.24/W. The levelized cost of electricity for solar will be around 34/MWh, allowing solar PV to be competitive with traditional energy resources like coal. The industry’s future developments may be affected by overinvestment, overcapacity, and singular short-term focus.

Expert knowledge elicitation using computer simulation: the organization of frail elderly case management as an illustration.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiêm, Jean-Christophe; Van Durme, Thérèse; Vandendorpe, Florence; Schmitz, Olivier; Speybroeck, Niko; Cès, Sophie; Macq, Jean

2014-08-01

Various elderly case management projects have been implemented in Belgium. This type of long-term health care intervention involves contextual factors and human interactions. These underlying complex mechanisms can be usefully informed with field experts' knowledge, which are hard to make explicit. However, computer simulation has been suggested as one possible method of overcoming the difficulty of articulating such elicited qualitative views. A simulation model of case management was designed using an agent-based methodology, based on the initial qualitative research material. Variables and rules of interaction were formulated into a simple conceptual framework. This model has been implemented and was used as a support for a structured discussion with experts in case management. The rigorous formulation provided by the agent-based methodology clarified the descriptions of the interventions and the problems encountered regarding: the diverse network topologies of health care actors in the project; the adaptation time required by the intervention; the communication between the health care actors; the institutional context; the organization of the care; and the role of the case manager and his or hers personal ability to interpret the informal demands of the frail older person. The simulation model should be seen primarily as a tool for thinking and learning. A number of insights were gained as part of a valuable cognitive process. Computer simulation supporting field experts' elicitation can lead to better-informed decisions in the organization of complex health care interventions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Hoffmann

Full Text Available Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions.We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates.We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

2017-01-01

Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance

Classification of Listeria monocytogenes persistence in retail delicatessen environments using expert elicitation and machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Vangay, P; Steingrimsson, J; Wiedmann, M; Stasiewicz, M J

2014-10-01

Increasing evidence suggests that persistence of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants has been the underlying cause of a number of human listeriosis outbreaks. This study extracts criteria used by food safety experts in determining bacterial persistence in the environment, using retail delicatessen operations as a model. Using the Delphi method, we conducted an expert elicitation with 10 food safety experts from academia, industry, and government to classify L. monocytogenes persistence based on environmental sampling results collected over six months for 30 retail delicatessen stores. The results were modeled using variations of random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, and linear regression; variable importance values of random forest and support vector machine models were consolidated to rank important variables in the experts' classifications. The duration of subtype isolation ranked most important across all expert categories. Sampling site category also ranked high in importance and validation errors doubled when this covariate was removed. Support vector machine and random forest models successfully classified the data with average validation errors of 3.1% and 2.2% (n = 144), respectively. Our findings indicate that (i) the frequency of isolations over time and sampling site information are critical factors for experts determining subtype persistence, (ii) food safety experts from different sectors may not use the same criteria in determining persistence, and (iii) machine learning models have potential for future use in environmental surveillance and risk management programs. Future work is necessary to validate the accuracy of expert and machine classification against biological measurement of L. monocytogenes persistence. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Identification of component performance degradations caused by ageing using expert panels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitoi, Mirela; Cristea, Dumitru; Pavelescu, Margarit

2008-01-01

Since the component ageing can be considered as one of the important causes of operating events reported, the identification of ageing effects and implementation of appropriate methods for mitigation of these effects represent an important preoccupation of many organizations and research activities. In the process of identification of ageing manifestation we can use either analysis of operational data or expert opinions, each of the methods having specific advantages and disadvantages. A reasonable combination of statistical, structural reliability and expert panel methods would be an appropriate approach in the failure probability assessments. In case when there are not enough operational data, the expert judgments represent the only viable alternative in the effort dedicated to identification of components and systems vulnerability to ageing. The panel use judgments to analyse the degradation produced by ageing, to score the components based on specific criteria and to rank them relative to one another. The paper presents the approach developed, including evaluation criteria and assigning indices for assessment of particular types of ageing degradation (the case of secondary system of TRIGA reactor). (authors)

Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.

1992-01-01

In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author)

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of the long-term effects of radioactive waste repositories: an annotated bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.

1993-01-01

This annotated bibliography describes the key literature relevant to the elicitation of expert judgements in radioactive waste management. The bibliography is divided into seven sections; section 2 lists the literature exploring the proper interpretation of probabilities used in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). Section 3 lists literature describing other calculi for handling uncertainty in a numerical fashion. In section 4 comments are given on how to elicit probabilities from individuals as a measure of subjective degrees of belief and section 5 lists the literature concerning how expert judgements can be combined. Sections 6 and 7 list literature giving an overview of the issues involved in PRA for radioactive waste repositories. (author)

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy

2017-01-01

as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model...... was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food...

A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schlag, K.H.; van der Weele, J.J.

2015-01-01

We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a "most likely interval", a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how well the

Land Degradation Monitoring in the Ordos Plateau of China Using an Expert Knowledge and BP-ANN-Based Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaojie Yue

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Land degradation monitoring is of vital importance to provide scientific information for promoting sustainable land utilization. This paper presents an expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach to detect and monitor land degradation in an effort to overcome the deficiencies of image classification and vegetation index-based approaches. The proposed approach consists of three generic steps: (1 extraction of knowledge on the relationship between land degradation degree and predisposing factors, which are NDVI and albedo, from domain experts; (2 establishment of a land degradation detecting model based on the BP-ANN algorithm; and (3 land degradation dynamic analysis. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the development of land degradation in the Ordos Plateau of China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The results indicate that the proposed approach is reliable for monitoring land degradation, with an overall accuracy of 91.2%. From 1990–2010, a reverse trend of land degradation is observed in Ordos Plateau. Regions with relatively high land degradation dynamic were mostly located in the northeast of Ordos Plateau. Additionally, most of the regions have transferred from a hot spot of land degradation to a less changed area. It is suggested that land utilization optimization plays a key role for effective land degradation control. However, it should be highlighted that the goals of such strategies should aim at the main negative factors causing land degradation, and the land use type and its quantity must meet the demand of population and be reconciled with natural conditions. Results from this case study suggest that the expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach is effective in mapping land degradation.

Expert judgement in performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

2000-01-01

This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

Expert judgement in performance assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2000-01-01

This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

1996-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community

A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Marc W.

2013-01-01

Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Landsberg, Jan H.

2017-11-20

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results.Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in

The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

1991-01-01

Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1987-04-01

Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

Using Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Impacts of Plastic Pollution on Marine Wildlife

Science.gov (United States)

Mallos, N. J.; Wilcox, C.; Leonard, G. H.; Rodriquez, A. G.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

With the rapid increase in global plastics production and the resulting large volume of litter that enters the marine environment, determining the consequences of this debris on marine fauna and ocean health has now become a critical environmental priority, particularly for threatened and endangered species. However, there are limited data about the impacts on debris on marine species from which to draw conclusions about the population consequences of anthropogenic debris. To address this knowledge gap, information was elicited from experts on the ecological threat of entanglement, ingestion and chemical contamination for three major marine taxa: seabirds, sea turtles and marine mammals. The threat assessment focused on the most common types of litter that are found along the world's coastlines, based on data gathered during three decades of international coastal clean-up efforts. Fishing related gear, balloons and plastic bags were estimated to pose the greatest entanglement risk to marine fauna. In contrast, experts identified a broader suite of items of concern for ingestion, with plastic bags and plastic utensils ranked as the greatest threats. Entanglement and ingestion affected a similar range of taxa, although entanglement was slightly worse as it is more likely to be lethal. Contamination was scored the lowest in terms of its impact, affecting a smaller portion of the taxa and being rated as having solely non-lethal impacts. Research designed to better understand and quantify the impacts of chemical contamination on marine fauna at individual, population and species levels should be a priority for conservation biologists. This work points towards a number of opportunities for both policy-based and consumer-driven changes in plastics use that could have demonstrable affects for a range of taxa that are ecologically important and serve as indicators of marine ecosystem health. Based on threat rankings, entanglement and ingestion should be a similar priority

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

2016-01-01

The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tine Hald

Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food.We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead. Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

Delphi Fuzzy Elicitation Technique in the Determination of Third ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Delphi technique via the expert elicitation method becomes extremely handy particularly in view of limited availability of data in determining failure probabilities of onshore transmission pipelines in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria occasioned by third party activity. Using, ten (10) experts opinion elucidated individually ...

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

Attribution of Foodborne Pathogens Using Structured Expert Elicitation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Havelaar, A.H.; Vargas Galindo, A.; Kurowicka, D.; Cooke, R.M.

2008-01-01

Objectives: To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human–human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. Methods: Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates

Solving black box computation problems using expert knowledge theory and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booker, Jane M.; McNamara, Laura A.

2004-01-01

The challenge problems for the Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop at Sandia National Laboratories provide common ground for comparing different mathematical theories of uncertainty, referred to as General Information Theories (GITs). These problems also present the opportunity to discuss the use of expert knowledge as an important constituent of uncertainty quantification. More specifically, how do the principles and methods of eliciting and analyzing expert knowledge apply to these problems and similar ones encountered in complex technical problem solving and decision making? We will address this question, demonstrating how the elicitation issues and the knowledge that experts provide can be used to assess the uncertainty in outputs that emerge from a black box model or computational code represented by the challenge problems. In our experience, the rich collection of GITs provides an opportunity to capture the experts' knowledge and associated uncertainties consistent with their thinking, problem solving, and problem representation. The elicitation process is rightly treated as part of an overall analytical approach, and the information elicited is not simply a source of data. In this paper, we detail how the elicitation process itself impacts the analyst's ability to represent, aggregate, and propagate uncertainty, as well as how to interpret uncertainties in outputs. While this approach does not advocate a specific GIT, answers under uncertainty do result from the elicitation

A method for using expert judgement in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

1997-03-01

The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Boobis, Alan; Flari, Villie; Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Craig, Peter; Rushton, Lesley; Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi

2013-07-01

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

2005-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10 -8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

A framework for characterizing usability requirements elicitation and analysis methodologies (UREAM)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trienekens, J.J.M.; Kusters, R.J.; Mannaert, H.

2012-01-01

Dedicated methodologies for the elicitation and analysis of usability requirements have been proposed in literature, usually developed by usability experts. The usability of these approaches by non-expert software engineers is not obvious. In this paper, the objective is to support developers and

Elicitation support requirements of multi-expertise teams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bitter-Rijpkema, M.; Martens, R.L.; Jochems, W.M.G.

2005-01-01

Tools to support knowledge elicitation are more and more used in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that there exist differences between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach

On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, E.

1996-01-01

Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

Current debates on end-of-life sedation: an international expert elicitation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Papavasiliou, Evangelia Evie; Payne, Sheila; Brearley, Sarah

2014-08-01

End-of-life sedation, though increasingly prevalent and widespread internationally, remains one of the most highly debated medical practices in the context of palliative medicine. This qualitative study aims to elicit and record the perspectives of leading international palliative care experts on current debates. Twenty-one professionals from diverse backgrounds, sharing field-specific knowledge/expertise defined by significant scholarly contribution on end-of-life sedation, were recruited. Open-ended, semi-structured interviews, following a topic-oriented structure reflecting on current debates, were conducted. Results were analysed using thematic content analysis. Three main aspects of sedation were identified and discussed as potentially problematic: (a) continuous deep sedation as an extreme facet of end-of-life sedation, (b) psycho-existential suffering as an ambivalent indication for sedation and (c) withdrawal or withholding of artificial nutrition and hydration as potentially life-shortening. On these grounds, concerns were reported over end-of-life sedation being morally equivalent to euthanasia. Considerable emphasis was placed on intentions as the distinguishing factor between end-of-life acts, and protective safeguards were introduced to distance sedation from euthanasia. This study shows that, despite the safeguards introduced, certain aspects of sedation, including the intentions associated with the practice, are still under question, parallels being drawn between end-of-life sedation and euthanasia. This reaffirms the existence of a grey area surrounding the two practices, already evidenced in countries where euthanasia is legalized. More clarity over the issues that generate this grey area, with their causes being uncovered and eliminated, is imperative to resolve current debates and effectively inform research, policy and practice of end-of-life sedation.

Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

2000-09-01

Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

2000-09-01

Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerr, R.A.

1996-01-01

The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - 'expert elicitation.' This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal

MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Funk

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

Science.gov (United States)

Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

2005-01-01

Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

1998-01-01

Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

A risk-informed approach of quantification of epistemic uncertainty for the long-term radioactive waste disposal. Improving reliability of expert judgements with an advanced elicitation procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Daisuke; Chida, Taiji; Fujita, Tomonari; Tsukamoto, Masaki

2011-01-01

A quantification methodology of epistemic uncertainty by expert judgement based on the risk-informed approach is developed to assess inevitable uncertainty for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The proposed method in this study employs techniques of logic tree, by which options of models and/or scenarios are identified, and Evidential Support Logic (ESL), by which possibility of each option is quantified. In this report, the effect of a feedback process of discussion between experts and input of state-of-the-art knowledge in the proposed method is discussed to estimate alteration of the distribution of expert judgements which is one of the factors causing uncertainty. In a preliminary quantification experiment of uncertainty of degradation of the engineering barrier materials in a tentative sub-surface disposal using the proposed methodology, experts themselves modified questions appropriately to facilitate sound judgements and to correlate those with scientific evidences clearly. The result suggests that the method effectively improves confidence of expert judgement. Also, the degree of consensus of expert judgement was sort of improved in some cases, since scientific knowledge and information of expert judgement in other fields became common understanding. It is suggested that the proposed method could facilitate consensus on uncertainty between interested persons. (author)

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Wald, D.J.; Perkins, D.; Aspinall, W.P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.; Deodatis, George; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Frangopol, Dan M.

2014-01-01

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

2016-01-01

External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

Expert judgment for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

2000-01-01

Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

Component aging evaluation with expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiesemann, J.S.; Maguire, H.T. Jr.

1988-01-01

The age degradation of components involves a complex relationship between a variety of variables. These relationships are typically modeled using probabilistic and deterministic analyses. These methods depend upon a formal understanding of the underlying degradation mechanisms and a database of experience which allows statistical analyses to extract numerical trends. At present, not all age degradation mechanisms are adequately modeled and available data for age degradation is in most cases insufficient. In addition, these methods tend to focus upon answers to isolated questions (e.g., What is the component failure rate?) rather than the more pertinent questions concerning operations and maintenance (e.g., should the component be replaced at the next outage). Fortunately, knowledge in the form of personal experience does exist which allows plant personnel to make decisions concerning operations and maintenance. This knowledge can be modeled using expert systems. This paper discusses CAGES (Component Aging Expert System). It combines expert rules (heuristics), probabilistic models, and deterministic models to make evaluations of component aging; predict the implications for component life extension, operational readiness, maintenance effectiveness, and safety, and make recommendations for maintenance and operation

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

2010-02-01

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2010-09-30

Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

García-Alonso Carlos

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M Granger; Frame, David J; Keith, David W

2010-07-13

There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked "cloud radiative feedbacks" as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm(-2) in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a "basic state change" as > or =0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8-1.8 degrees C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 degrees C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the "likely" range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

2017-09-01

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.

2017-05-23

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits — fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity—addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for

Impact of Requirements Elicitation Processes on Success of Information System Development Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bormane Līga

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Requirements articulating user needs and corresponding to enterprise business processes are a key to successful implementation of information system development projects. However, the parties involved in projects frequently are not able to agree on a common development vision and have difficulties expressing their needs. Several industry experts have acknowledged that requirements elicitation is one of the most difficult tasks in development projects. This study investigates the impact of requirements elicitation processes on project outcomes depending on the applied project development methodology.

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

2012-01-01

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Elicitation of expert knowledge on controlling Salmonella in the pork chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gaag, v.d. M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2002-01-01

Salmonella is one of the most important risks for food safety, and pork is one of the sources of human salmonellosis. A chain approach is essential to reduce Salmonella in pork products. A survey was carried out among Dutch and Danish experts in the field of Salmonella to evaluate the entire pork

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Science.gov (United States)

Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

2014-01-01

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Oraby, Tamer; Tyshenko, Michael G; Westphal, Margit; Darshan, Shalu; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Cashman, Neil; Krewski, Daniel

2016-01-01

ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context.

Knowledge acquisition in ecological poduct design: the effects of computer-mediated communication and elicitation method

OpenAIRE

Sauer, J.; Schramme, S.; Rüttinger, B.

2000-01-01

This article presents a study that examines multiple effects of using different means of computer-mediated communication and knowledge elicitation methods during a product design process. The experimental task involved a typical scenario in product design, in which a knowledge engineer consults two experts to generate knowledge about a design issue. Employing a 3x2 between-subjects design, three conference types (face-to-face, computer, multivedia) and two knowledge elicitation methods (struc...

Patient Health Goals Elicited During Home Care Admission: A Categorization.

Science.gov (United States)

Sockolow, Paulina; Radhakrishnan, Kavita; Chou, Edgar Y; Wojciechowicz, Christine

2017-11-01

Home care agencies are initiating "patient health goal elicitation" activities as part of home care admission planning. We categorized elicited goals and identified "clinically informative" goals at a home care agency. We examined patient goals that admitting clinicians documented in the point-of-care electronic health record; conducted content analysis on patient goal data to develop a coding scheme; grouped goal themes into codes; assigned codes to each goal; and identified goals that were in the patient voice. Of the 1,763 patient records, 16% lacked a goal; only 15 goals were in a patient's voice. Nurse and physician experts identified 12 of the 20 codes as clinically important accounting for 82% of goal occurrences. The most frequent goal documented was safety/falls (23%). Training and consistent communication of the intent and operationalization of patient goal elicitation may address the absence of patient voice and the less than universal recording of home care patients' goals.

Long-term degradation of organic polymers under conditions found in deep repositories for low and intermediate-level wastes; Langzeit-Degradation von organischen Polymeren unter SMA-Tiefenlagerbedingungen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warthmann, R.; Mosberger, L.; Baier, U.

2013-06-15

On behalf of Nagra, the Environmental Biotechnology Section of the Zürich University of Applied Sciences in Wädenswil investigated the potential for microbiological degradation of organic polymers under the conditions found in a deep geological repository for low- and intermediate-level waste (L/ILW). The existing scientific literature on the topic was analysed, some thermodynamic calculations carried out and input was elicited from internationally recognised experts in the field. The study was restricted to a few substances which, in terms of mass, are most significant in the Swiss L/ILW inventory; these are polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), other plastics and bitumen. There were no clear indications in the literature that the polymer structure of synthetic polymers is biodegraded under anoxic conditions. However, functional groups of ion exchangers and plasticizers in plastics are considered to be readily available and biodegradable. The greatest obstacle to biological degradation of synthetic polymers is depolymerisation to produce labile monomers. As energy is generally required for such breakdown, the chances of this process taking place outside the cells are very low. In so far as they are present, monomers are, in principle, anaerobically biodegradable. Thermodynamic considerations indicate that degradation of synthetic polymers under repository conditions is theoretically possible. However, the degradation of polystyrene is very close to thermodynamic equilibrium and the usable energy for microorganisms would barely be sufficient. Under high H2 partial pressures, it is predicted that there will be a thermodynamic inhibition of anaerobic degradation, as certain interim steps in degradation are endergonic. The starting conditions for microbial growth in a deep repository are unfavourable in terms of availability of water and prevailing pH values. Practically no known microorganisms can tolerate the combination of these conditions; most known

Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

Science.gov (United States)

Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

2012-11-06

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

Flammable gas project expert elicitation results for Hanford Site double-shell tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bratzel, D.R.

1998-01-01

This report documents the results of the second phase of parameter quantification by the flammable gas expert panel. This second phase is focused on the analysis of flammable gas accidents in the Hanford Site double-shell tanks. The first phase of parameter quantification, performed in 1997 was focused on the analysis of Hanford single-shell tanks

How should an electric vehicle sound? User and expert perception

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petiot, Jean-François; Kristensen, Bjørn G.; Maier, Anja

2013-01-01

for electric vehicles were investigated in an experimental setting with a total of 40 participants, 34 novice users and six sound experts. Word association was used to elicit emotional reactions to the different sounds. Novice users employ more characterrelated terms to describe the sounds, while experts use...... more composition-based words. Analysis of variance and conjoint analysis was used to analyze participants’ assessments of sounds according to two semantic scales (pleasantness and appropriateness). Considerable inter-individual differences in the ratings of pleasantness and appropriateness indicate...

Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

Science.gov (United States)

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

Oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism: Expert opinion versus current practice: Combined results of a systematic review, expert panel opinion and an international survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klok, F. A.; Schreiber, K.; Stach, K.; Ageno, W.; Middeldorp, S.; Eichinger, S.; Delluc, A.; Blondon, M.; Ay, C.

2017-01-01

The optimal management of oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is largely unknown. We aimed to elicit expert opinion and compare that to current practice as assessed by a world-wide international web-based survey among physicians. 10

On the balanced blending of formally structured and simplified approaches for utilizing judgments of experts in the assessment of uncertain issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon; Ha, Jae Joo

2003-01-01

Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues

Elicitation of hypersensitive responses in Nicotiana glutinosa by the suppressor of RNA silencing protein P0 from poleroviruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ken-Der; Empleo, Roman; Nguyen, Tan Tri V; Moffett, Peter; Sacco, Melanie Ann

2015-06-01

Plant disease resistance (R) proteins that confer resistance to viruses recognize viral gene products with diverse functions, including viral suppressors of RNA silencing (VSRs). The P0 protein from poleroviruses is a VSR that targets the ARGONAUTE1 (AGO1) protein for degradation, thereby disrupting RNA silencing and antiviral defences. Here, we report resistance against poleroviruses in Nicotiana glutinosa directed against Turnip yellows virus (TuYV) and Potato leafroll virus (PLRV). The P0 proteins from TuYV (P0(T) (u) ), PLRV (P0(PL) ) and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (P0(CA) ) were found to elicit a hypersensitive response (HR) in N. glutinosa accession TW59, whereas other accessions recognized P0(PL) only. Genetic analysis showed that recognition of P0(T) (u) by a resistance gene designated RPO1 (Resistance to POleroviruses 1) is inherited as a dominant allele. Expression of P0 from a Potato virus X (PVX) expression vector transferred recognition to the recombinant virus on plants expressing RPO1, supporting P0 as the unique Polerovirus factor eliciting resistance. The induction of HR required a functional P0 protein, as P0(T) (u) mutants with substitutions in the F-box motif that abolished VSR activity were unable to elicit HR. We surmised that the broad P0 recognition seen in TW59 and the requirement for the F-box protein motif could indicate detection of P0-induced AGO1 degradation and disruption of RNA silencing; however, other viral silencing suppressors, including the PVX P25 that also causes AGO1 degradation, failed to elicit HR in N. glutinosa. Investigation of P0 elicitation of RPO1 could provide insight into P0 activities within the cell that trigger resistance. © 2014 BSPP AND JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD.

Statistical modeling for degradation data

CERN Document Server

Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru

2017-01-01

This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.

The unconvincing product - Consumer versus expert hazard identification: A mental models study of novel foods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagemann, Kit; Scholderer, Joachim

and experts understanding of benefits and risks associated with three Novel foods (a potato, rice and functional food ingredients) using a relatively new methodology for the study of risk perception called Mental models. Mental models focus on the way people conceptualise hazardous processes and allows...... researchers to pit a normative analysis (expert mental models) against a descriptive analysis (consumer mental models). Expert models were elicited by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure from altogether 24 international experts and consumers models from in-dept interviews with Danish consumers. The results...... revealed that consumers´ and experts' mental models differed in connection to scope. Experts focused on the types of hazards for which risk assessments can be conducted under current legal frameworks whereas consumers were concerned about issues that lay outside the scope of current legislation. Experts...

Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

2007-01-01

consensus and/or disagreement between experts on different parts of the exposure-response paradigm. This can be done by eliciting judgments from a wide range of experts on different parts of the risk causal chain. We also use examples to illustrate how studying expert consensus/disagreement helps in research prioritization and budget allocation exercises. The expert elicitation can be repeated over the course of several years, over which time, the state of scientific knowledge will also improve and uncertainties may possibly reduce. Results from expert the elicitation exercise can be used by risk managers or managers of funding agencies as a tool for research prioritization

Patient participation in patient safety still missing: Patient safety experts' views.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahlström, Merja; Partanen, Pirjo; Rathert, Cheryl; Turunen, Hannele

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to elicit patient safety experts' views of patient participation in promoting patient safety. Data were collected between September and December in 2014 via an electronic semi-structured questionnaire and interviews with Finnish patient safety experts (n = 21), then analysed using inductive content analysis. Patient safety experts regarded patients as having a crucial role in promoting patient safety. They generally deemed the level of patient safety as 'acceptable' in their organizations, but reported that patient participation in their own safety varied, and did not always meet national standards. Management of patient safety incidents differed between organizations. Experts also suggested that patient safety training should be increased in both basic and continuing education programmes for healthcare professionals. Patient participation in patient safety is still lacking in clinical practice and systematic actions are needed to create a safety culture in which patients are seen as equal partners in the promotion of high-quality and safe care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Teacher Knowledge for Active-Learning Instruction: Expert-Novice Comparison Reveals Differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Auerbach, A J; Higgins, M; Brickman, P; Andrews, T C

2018-01-01

Active-learning strategies can improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) undergraduates' abilities to learn fundamental concepts and skills. However, the results instructors achieve vary substantially. One explanation for this is that instructors commonly implement active learning differently than intended. An important factor affecting how instructors implement active learning is knowledge of teaching and learning. We aimed to discover knowledge that is important to effective active learning in large undergraduate courses. We developed a lesson-analysis instrument to elicit teacher knowledge, drawing on the theoretical construct of teacher noticing. We compared the knowledge used by expert ( n = 14) and novice ( n = 29) active-learning instructors as they analyzed lessons. Experts and novices differed in what they noticed, with experts more commonly considering how instructors hold students accountable, topic-specific student difficulties, whether the instructor elicited and responded to student thinking, and opportunities students had to generate their own ideas and work. Experts were also better able to support their lesson analyses with reasoning. This work provides foundational knowledge for the future design of preparation and support for instructors adopting active learning. Improving teacher knowledge will improve the implementation of active learning, which will be necessary to widely realize the potential benefits of active learning in undergraduate STEM. © 2018 A. J. Auerbach et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2018 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

2000-01-01

The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

Expert assessment of advanced power sources. Contract report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gardner, C.L.

2007-07-01

Although DRDC published an exhaustive technical report (in August 2001) on technology trends in advanced power sources projected out to the year 2020, the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 (and the consequent, augmented and more broadly-based defence and national security posture adopted by the CF/DND), together with rapid developments in power source technologies over the past five years, internationally, prompted DRDC to update the 2001 report, on a selected number of power source technologies or applications and to provide further guidance to DRDC's Advanced Power Source R and D program. Eight wide-ranging, power source technologies or applications were investigated, using the technique of 'expert elicitation' (that is, using independent experts in the various and diverse technological fields), based on a standardized questionnaire, augmented by the contractor's own expertise (and his overall analysis of the experts' responses) in these diverse areas. In addition, each expert was asked about his/her view on the likely role of nanotechnology in each technological area or application. Following collection and analysis of all the data, the contractor made recommendations on the ability of each power source to meet the future requirements of the CF/DND, taking into account the Technology Readiness Level, for each technology or application

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zickfeld, K.; Levermann, A.; Kuhlbrodt, T.; Rahmstorf, S.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W.

2007-01-01

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

Expert system and knowledge acquisition technology in ENEA program on nuclear and conventional energy production processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balducelli, C.; Federico, A.; Sapia, R.Di.

1990-01-01

On the basis of some experiences performed in ENEA (Thermal Reactor Department) revelant to the project and development of experts systems to support the operator activities in nuclear and conventional energy production processes, the paper tries to point out the outline of a 'generic' plant operator cognitive structure. For this type of expert systems an implementation strategy and a knowledge elicitation methodology are proposed with the intention of giving a support to the knowledge engineer work

Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogerson, Ellen C.; Lambert, James H.

2012-01-01

Factor hierarchies have been widely used in the literature to represent the view of an expert of what factors most contribute to reliability or safety. The methods for rating and aggregating the influences across a set of expert-elicited factors to risk or reliability are well known as multiple criteria decision analysis. This paper describes a method for distinguishing levels of risk across a set of locations via the use of multiple factor hierarchies. The method avoids averaging across experts and is thus useful for situations where experts disagree and where an absence of expert consensus on the causative or contributing factors is important information for risk management. A case study demonstrates using seven expert perspectives on the airport-specific factors that can contribute to runway incursions. The results are described for eighty towered airports in the US. The expert perspectives include differing relative emphases across the following set of factors: airport geometry, operations, weather, geography, and days since last safety review. Future work is suggested to include human factors issues as pilot-and-controller communications styles at airports. - Highlights: ► We examine influential factors in seven expert perspectives on the problem domain. ► We assess eighty US airports with qualitative measurement scales for each risk factor. ► Results show robustness and sensitivity of the risk index to expert perspective. ► We examine factors of several types including runway geometry, operations, weather, and geography.

Long-term degradation of organic polymers under conditions found in deep repositories for low and intermediate-level wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warthmann, R.; Mosberger, L.; Baier, U.

2013-06-01

On behalf of Nagra, the Environmental Biotechnology Section of the Zürich University of Applied Sciences in Wädenswil investigated the potential for microbiological degradation of organic polymers under the conditions found in a deep geological repository for low- and intermediate-level waste (L/ILW). The existing scientific literature on the topic was analysed, some thermodynamic calculations carried out and input was elicited from internationally recognised experts in the field. The study was restricted to a few substances which, in terms of mass, are most significant in the Swiss L/ILW inventory; these are polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), other plastics and bitumen. There were no clear indications in the literature that the polymer structure of synthetic polymers is biodegraded under anoxic conditions. However, functional groups of ion exchangers and plasticizers in plastics are considered to be readily available and biodegradable. The greatest obstacle to biological degradation of synthetic polymers is depolymerisation to produce labile monomers. As energy is generally required for such breakdown, the chances of this process taking place outside the cells are very low. In so far as they are present, monomers are, in principle, anaerobically biodegradable. Thermodynamic considerations indicate that degradation of synthetic polymers under repository conditions is theoretically possible. However, the degradation of polystyrene is very close to thermodynamic equilibrium and the usable energy for microorganisms would barely be sufficient. Under high H2 partial pressures, it is predicted that there will be a thermodynamic inhibition of anaerobic degradation, as certain interim steps in degradation are endergonic. The starting conditions for microbial growth in a deep repository are unfavourable in terms of availability of water and prevailing pH values. Practically no known microorganisms can tolerate the combination of these conditions; most known

Lessons Learnt from Experts in Design Rationale Knowledge Capture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hall, Mark; Bermell-Garcia, Pablo; Ravindranath, Ranjitun

2017-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the use of argumentation models and software tools to support knowledge capture in the design of long-life engineering products. The results of semi-structured interviews with a number of experts in the field are presented, exploring their collective experience...... of knowledge capture and eliciting guidelines for successful implementation of such models and tools. The results of this research may be used as the basis for the design of future tools and techniques for knowledge capture....

Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

1998-03-30

The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

A study on development of a rule based expert system for steam generator life extension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jin Kyun

1994-02-01

The need of predicting the integrity of the steam generator(SG) tubes and environmental conditions that affect their integrity is growing to secure nuclear power plant(NPP) safety and enhance plant availability. To achieve their objectives it is important to diagnose the integrity of the SG tubes. An expert system called FEMODES(failure mode diagnosis expert system) has been developed for diagnosis of such tube degradation phenomena as denting, intergranular attack(IGA) and stress corrosion cracking(SCC) in the secondary side of the SG. It is possible with use of FEMODES to estimate possibilities of SG tube degradation and diagnosis environmental conditions that influence such tube degradation. The method of certainty factor theory(CFT) and the rule based backward reasoning inference strategy are used to develop FEMODES. The information required for diagnosis is acquired from SG tube degradation experiences of two local reference plants, some limited oversea plants and technical reports/research papers about such tube degradation. Overall results estimated with use of FEMODES are in reasonable agreement with actual SG tube degradation. Some discrepancy observed in several estimated values of SG tube degradation appears to be due to insufficient heuristic knowledge for knowledge data base of FEMODES

Effects of competitive pressure on expert performance: underlying psychological, physiological, and kinematic mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooke, Andrew; Kavussanu, Maria; McIntyre, David; Boardley, Ian D; Ring, Christopher

2011-08-01

Although it is well established that performance is influenced by competitive pressure, our understanding of the mechanisms which underlie the pressure-performance relationship is limited. The current experiment examined mediators of the relationship between competitive pressure and motor skill performance of experts. Psychological, physiological, and kinematic responses to three levels of competitive pressure were measured in 50 expert golfers, during a golf putting task. Elevated competitive pressure increased putting accuracy, anxiety, effort, and heart rate, but decreased grip force. Quadratic effects of pressure were noted for self-reported conscious processing and impact velocity. Mediation analyses revealed that effort and heart rate partially mediated improved performance. The findings indicate that competitive pressure elicits effects on expert performance through both psychological and physiological pathways. Copyright © 2011 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

1994-09-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Business Administration & Economics Div.

1994-09-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

1993-01-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

2007-03-01

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge.

Reviewing fluid systems for age-related degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Stan

1991-01-01

Yankee Atomic Electric Company has developed the component degradation assessment tool (CoDAT), an expert system, that aids in handling and evaluating the large amounts of data required to support the license renewal process for nuclear power station fluid systems. In 1990, CoDAT evaluated the Yankee Nuclear Power Station fluid systems for age-related degradation. Its results are now being used to help focus the plant's maintenance programs and manage the expected degradation. CoDAT uses 'If-Then' rules, developed from industry codes, standards and publications, to determine the potential for 19 age-related degradation mechanisms. Other nuclear utilities pursuing the license renewal option also could use CoDAT. (author)

Eliciting conditional and unconditional rank correlations from conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, O.; Kurowicka, D.; Roelen, A.

2008-01-01

Causes of uncertainties may be interrelated and may introduce dependencies. Ignoring these dependencies may lead to large errors. A number of graphical models in probability theory such as dependence trees, vines and (continuous) Bayesian belief nets [Cooke RM. Markov and entropy properties of tree and vine-dependent variables. In: Proceedings of the ASA section on Bayesian statistical science, 1997; Kurowicka D, Cooke RM. Distribution-free continuous Bayesian belief nets. In: Proceedings of mathematical methods in reliability conference, 2004; Bedford TJ, Cooke RM. Vines-a new graphical model for dependent random variables. Ann Stat 2002; 30(4):1031-68; Kurowicka D, Cooke RM. Uncertainty analysis with high dimensional dependence modelling. New York: Wiley; 2006; Hanea AM, et al. Hybrid methods for quantifying and analyzing Bayesian belief nets. In: Proceedings of the 2005 ENBIS5 conference, 2005; Shachter RD, Kenley CR. Gaussian influence diagrams. Manage Sci 1998; 35(5) .] have been developed to capture dependencies between random variables. The input for these models are various marginal distributions and dependence information, usually in the form of conditional rank correlations. Often expert elicitation is required. This paper focuses on dependence representation, and dependence elicitation. The techniques presented are illustrated with an application from aviation safety

At-risk adolescents as experts in a new requirements elicitation procedure for the development of a smart phone psychoeducational trauma-informed care application.

Science.gov (United States)

Sockolow, Paulina; Schug, Seran; Zhu, Jichen; Smith, T J; Senathirajah, Yalini; Bloom, Sandra

2017-01-01

Adolescents from urban, socioeconomically disadvantaged communities of color encounter high rates of adverse childhood experiences. To address the resulting multidimensional problems, we developed an innovative approach, Experiential Participatory and Interactive Knowledge Elicitation (EPIKE), using remote experiential needs elicitation methods to generate design and content requirements for a mobile health (mHealth) psychoeducational intervention. At a community-based organization in a northeastern city, the research team developed EPIKE by incorporating elicitation of input on the graphics and conducting remotely recorded experiential meetings and iterative reviews of the design to produce an mHealth smartphone story application (app) prototype for the participants to critique. The 22 participants were 13- to 17-year-olds, predominantly African American and female, from underresourced communities. The four goals of the design process were attained: 1) story development from participant input; 2) needs-elicitation that reflected the patient-centered care approach; 3) interactive story game creation that accommodates the participants' emotional and cognitive developmental needs; 4) development of a game that adolescents can relate to and that which matches their comfort levels of emotional intensity. The EPIKE approach can be used successfully to identify the needs of adolescents across the digital divide to inform the design and development of mHealth apps.

Expert surgical consensus for prenatal counseling using the Delphi method.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Loren; Jackson, Jordan; Miller, Kristen; Kowalski, Rebecca; Kolm, Paul; Luks, Francois I

2017-11-28

Pediatric surgeons frequently offer prenatal consultation for congenital pulmonary airway malformation (CPAM) and congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH); however, there is no evidence-based consensus to guide prenatal decision making and counseling for these conditions. Eliciting feedback from experts is integral to defining best practice regarding prenatal counseling and intervention. A Delphi consensus process was undertaken using a panel of pediatric surgeons identified as experts in fetal therapy to address current limitations. Areas of discrepancy in the literature on CPAM and CDH were identified and used to generate a list of content and intervention questions. Experts were invited to participate in an online Delphi survey. Items that did not reach first-round consensus were broken down into additional questions, and consensus was achieved in the second round. Fifty-four surgeons (69%) responded to at least one of the two survey rounds. During round one, consensus was reached on 54 of 89 survey questions (61%), and 45 new questions were developed. During round two, consensus was reached on 53 of 60 survey questions (88%). We determined expert consensus to establish guidelines regarding perinatal management of CPAM and CDH. Our results can help educate pediatric surgeons participating in perinatal care of these patients. V. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electrophysiological correlates of aesthetic processing of webpages: a comparison of experts and laypersons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jens Bölte

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether design experts or laypersons evaluate webpages differently. Twenty participants, 10 experts and 10 laypersons, judged the aesthetic value of a webpage in an EEG-experiment. Screenshots of 150 webpages, judged as aesthetic or as unaesthetic by another 136 participants, served as stimulus material. Behaviorally, experts and laypersons evaluated unaesthetic webpages similarly, but they differed in their evaluation of aesthetic ones: experts evaluated aesthetic webpages as unaesthetic more often than laypersons did. The ERP-data show main effects of level of expertise and of aesthetic value only. There was no interaction of expertise and aesthetics. In a time-window of 110–130 ms after stimulus onset, aesthetic webpages elicited a more negative EEG-amplitude than unaesthetic webpages. In the same time window, experts had more negative EEG-amplitudes than laypersons. This patterning of results continued until a time window of 600–800 ms in which group and aesthetic differences diminished. An interaction of perceiver characteristics and object properties that several interactionist theories postulate was absent in the EEG-data. Experts seem to process the stimuli in a more thorough manner than laypersons. The early activation differences between aesthetic and unaesthetic webpages is in contrast with some theories of aesthetic processing and has not been reported before.

Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

Science.gov (United States)

Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

2015-01-01

It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

Polyploid tumour cells elicit paradiploid progeny through depolyploidizing divisions and regulated autophagic degradation.

Science.gov (United States)

Erenpreisa, Jekaterina; Salmina, Kristine; Huna, Anda; Kosmacek, Elizabeth A; Cragg, Mark S; Ianzini, Fiorenza; Anisimov, Alim P

2011-07-01

'Neosis' describes the process whereby p53 function-deficient tumour cells undergo self-renewal after genotoxic damage apparently via senescing ETCs (endopolyploid tumour cells). We previously reported that autophagic digestion and extrusion of DNA occurs in ETC and subsequently revealed that self-renewal transcription factors are also activated under these conditions. Here, we further studied this phenomenon in a range of cell lines after genotoxic damage induced by gamma irradiation, ETO (etoposide) or PXT (paclitaxel) treatment. These experiments revealed that chromatin degradation by autophagy was compatible with continuing mitotic activity in ETC. While the actively polyploidizing primary ETC produced early after genotoxic insult activated self-renewal factors throughout the polygenome, the secondary ETC restored after failed multipolar mitosis underwent subnuclei differentiation. As such, only a subset of subnuclei continued to express OCT4 and NANOG, while those lacking these factors stopped DNA replication and underwent degradation and elimination through autophagy. The surviving subnuclei sequestered nascent cytoplasm to form subcells, while being retained within the confines of the old ETC. Finally, the preformed paradiploid subcells became released from their linking chromosome bridges through autophagy and subsequently began cell divisions. These data show that 'neotic' ETC resulting from genotoxically damaged p53 function-deficient tumour cells develop through a heteronuclear system differentiating the polyploid genome into rejuvenated 'viable' subcells (which provide mitotically propagating paradiploid descendents) and subnuclei, which become degraded and eliminated by autophagy. The whole process reduces aneuploidy in descendants of ETC.

Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

2013-04-01

This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments.

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

Science.gov (United States)

Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

2014-10-01

Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouzaiene-Marle, L

2005-04-15

This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farmer, J. C., LLNL

1998-02-26

The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

Ecosystem degradation in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinha, B.N.

1990-01-01

Environmental and ecosystem studies have assumed greater relevance in the last decade of the twentieth century than even before. The urban settlements are becoming over-crowded and industries are increasingly polluting the air, water and sound in our larger metropolises. Degradation of different types of ecosystem are discussed in this book, Ecosystem Degradation in India. The book has been divided into seven chapters: Introduction, Coastal and Delta Ecosystem, River Basin Ecosystem, Mountain Ecosystem, Forest Ecosystem, Urban Ecosystem and the last chapter deals with the Environmental Problems and Planning. In the introduction the environmental and ecosystem degradation problems in India is highlighted as a whole while in other chapters mostly case studies by experts who know their respective terrain very intimately are included. The case study papers cover most part of India and deal with local problems, stretching from east coast to west coast and from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. (author)

AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouzaiene-Marle, L

2005-04-15

This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouzaiene-Marle, L.

2005-04-01

This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

A comparison of five elicitation techniques for elicitation of attributes of low involvement products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bech-Larsen, Tino; Nielsen, Niels Asger

1999-01-01

of dimensions directed from theories of consumer buying behaviour. Although a number of differences between the techniques are identified in the study, the main findings are that the robustness of the different techniques for attribute elicitation is considerable Udgivelsesdato: JUN......The critical first step for most instruments used in analysing consumer choice and motivation is the identification of product attributes which are important to the consumer and for which there are differences among the available product alternatives. A number of techniques, ranging from...... the complex elicitation of idiosyncratic attributes or simpler picking procedures, has been developed to elicitate such attributes. The purpose of the study presented here is to com-pare attributes of a low involvement product, viz. vegetable oil, elicited by five different techniques on a number...

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho compared with other supposed causal factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maxim, L [Institut des Sciences de la Communication, CNRS UPS 3088, 27 Rue Damesme, 75013 Paris (France); Van der Sluijs, J P, E-mail: laura.maxim@iscc.cnrs.f, E-mail: J.P.vanderSluijs@uu.n [Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Department of Science, Technology and Society, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht (Netherlands)

2010-01-15

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho compared with other supposed causal factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxim, L; Van der Sluijs, J P

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

2012-12-01

To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

2003-03-01

During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites

Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

2003-01-01

During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1

Knowledge management: an analysis of the tools of expert knowledge capture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez Larcher, A.

2009-01-01

This work proposes the revision of the strategies and tools used to elicit and capture expert knowledge, particularly those suggested by the EPRI and the IAEA. The main objective of this paper consists of examining the effectiveness and scope of the methodologies proposed, in order to apply them and make them suitable according to our institutional context. This article emphasizes the value and usefulness of the interview's methods with the aim of implementing some of them to the activities created and organized by CNEA Nuclear Knowledge Management Group, especially to the ConRRad Project. (author)

Requirements Elicitation Problems: A Literature Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bill Davey

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Requirements elicitation is the process through which analysts determine the software requirements of stakeholders. Requirements elicitation is seldom well done, and an inaccurate or incomplete understanding of user requirements has led to the downfall of many software projects. This paper proposes a classification of problem types that occur in requirements elicitation. The classification has been derived from a literature analysis. Papers reporting on techniques for improving requirements elicitation practice were examined for the problem the technique was designed to address. In each classification the most recent or prominent techniques for ameliorating the problems are presented. The classification allows the requirements engineer to be sensitive to problems as they arise and the educator to structure delivery of requirements elicitation training.

Belief Elicitation in Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander

Belief elicitation in economics experiments usually relies on paying subjects according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. Such incentives, however, allow risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of other decisions......-belief elicitation treatment using a financial investment frame, where hedging arguably would be most natural....

Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fine, T.L.

1980-04-01

This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

The use of expert judgement in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

The use of expert judgement in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

The use of expert judgement in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

A study on the development of a expert system for diagnosing fossil power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baik, Young Min; Jeong, Hee Don; Shin, Eun Ju

2009-01-01

In order to analyze the causes of fossil power plant facilities due to a degradation and corrosion, artificial degraded materials composed of the facilities were manufactured. Various experiment were performed based on mechanical test, microstructure observation, hardness test, Electrochemical Potentiokinetic Reactivation test (EPR) and corrosion scale thickness measurement test. The master curves were write out using Larson-Miller parameter to evaluate the degree of degradation with the above diagnosis methods. These data were applied to materials database of fossil power plant diagnosis. Finally expert system on the fossil power plant diagnosis was developed using the master curves and diagnosis algorithms.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

1984-11-01

The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts

Continental mapping of groundwater dependent ecosystems: A methodological framework to integrate diverse data and expert opinion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanya M. Doody

2017-04-01

New hydrological insights: It was identified that 34% of Australia’s landscape potentially contains GDEs of which 5% are classified with a high GDE potential. In addition, new continental scale insights into landscape processes where provided by the derivation and integration of remote sensing products using MODIS and Landsat. These products identify landscapes which are ‘wetter’ or ‘greener’ than surrounding areas, indicating these landscapes are accessing additional water, such as groundwater, supplementary to rainfall. The method reported also demonstrates the importance of expert knowledge, obtained through literature and expert elicitation, in order to provide a conceptual understanding of regional ecohydrological processes to develop rules of GDE dependency that would guide the extrapolation of known GDEs.

Eliciting Sound Memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Anna

2015-11-01

Sensory experiences are often considered triggers of memory, most famously a little French cake dipped in lime blossom tea. Sense memory can also be evoked in public history research through techniques of elicitation. In this article I reflect on different social science methods for eliciting sound memories such as the use of sonic prompts, emplaced interviewing, and sound walks. I include examples from my research on medical listening. The article considers the relevance of this work for the conduct of oral histories, arguing that such methods "break the frame," allowing room for collaborative research connections and insights into the otherwise unarticulatable.

The Different Inhibition of Return (IOR Effects of Emergency Managerial Experts and Novices: An Event-Related Potentials Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rong Cao

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Inhibition of return (IOR is an important effect of attention. However, the IOR of emergency managerial experts is unknown. By employing emergency and natural scene pictures in expert-novice paradigm, the present study explored the neural activity underlying the IOR effects for emergency managerial experts and novices. In behavioral results, there were no differences of IOR effects between novices and emergency managerial experts, while the event-related potentials (ERPs results were different between novices and experts. In Experiment 1 (novice group, ERPs results showed no any IOR was robust at both stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA of 200 ms and 400 ms. In Experiment 2 (expert group, ERPs results showed an enhanced N2 at SOA of 200 ms and attenuated P3 at cued location in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions than uncued location at SOA of 200 ms. The findings of the two experiments showed that, relative to the novices, IOR for the emergency managerial experts was robust, and dominated in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions, suggesting more flexible attentional processing and higher visual search efficiency of the emergency managerial experts. The findings indicate that the P3, possible N2, over the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions are the biological indicators for IOR elicited by post-cued emergency pictures for emergency managerial experts.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

Science.gov (United States)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Construction of a case for expert judgement of uncertainty in early health effects models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grupa, J.

1997-11-01

The contribution of ECN to a joint study of the European Commission (EC) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in which the uncertainty in risks and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are evaluated, is described. The procedure used to obtain these uncertainties is called expert judgement. In a formal expert judgement procedure a panel of experts has provided quantitative information about the uncertainty in given observables: a quantity that describes an observation concerning the phenomenon of interest, in this paper the relation between dose and health effects, without information or assumptions about any model describing this phenomenon. The observables are defined in a case structure, a questionnaire provided to all experts. ECN has contributed to the selection of the experts for the early health effects panel, and provided assistance for drafting the case structure for this panel. This paper describes the radiological information provided by ECN and the analyses necessary for constructing the case structure. The deliverables of the expert elicitation are uncertainty distributions of the observables requested in the case structure. The results are intended to be unbiased, i.e. it should be applicable to any model describing the relation between dose and health effects. They will be published by the project team in a joint publication of the NRC and the EC. In this way the resulting uncertainty distributions are available for further work in the joint project and available to a more general public. 2 figs., 4 refs

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

2016-01-01

transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives......., seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge...

Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: an example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation.

Science.gov (United States)

Garabed, R B; Perez, A M; Johnson, W O; Thurmond, M C

2009-11-01

When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts' opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for "diagnosing" country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts' responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

Elicitation of ostomy pouch preferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonnichsen, Ole

2011-01-01

Background: Previous studies about patients who have undergone ostomy surgery commonly address the issues of the surgery, complications, preoperative counseling, quality of life, and psychosocial changes following surgery. Only a limited number of studies deal with how technical improvements...... in stoma care would affect patients and, to the author's knowledge, the present study is the first to elicit preferences for potential improvements in ostomy pouches in the form of monetary values. Objective: This article examines and measures Swedish patients' preferences for potential improvements...... in ostomy pouch attributes. The theory, study design, elicitation procedure, and resulting preference structure of the sample is described. Methods: A discrete-choice experiment (DCE) was used to elicit preferences. Respondents were asked to choose between alternatives in choice sets, in which each...

A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW ABOUT SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS ELICITATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LENIS R. WONG

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Requirements Elicitation is recognized as one of the most important activity in software development process as it has direct impact on its success. Although there are many proposals for improving this task, still there are issues which have to be solved. This paper aims to identify the current status of the latest researches related to software requirements elicitation through general framework for literature review, in order to answer the following research questions: Q1 What aspects have been covered by different proposal of requirements elicitation? Q2 What activities of the requirements elicitation process have been covered? And Q3 What factors influence on requirements elicitation and how? A cross-analysis of the outcome was performed. One of the results showed that requirements elicitation process needs improvements.

Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

Science.gov (United States)

Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

2015-06-01

It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

2017-06-01

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Design Features in Games for Health: Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary Expert Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Christina; Wilcox, Lauren; Ng, Wendy; Schiffer, Jade; Hammer, Jessica

2017-06-01

Games for health (G4H) aim to improve health outcomes and encourage behavior change. While existing theoretical frameworks describe features of both games and health interventions, there has been limited systematic investigation into how disciplinary and interdisciplinary stakeholders understand design features in G4H. We recruited 18 experts from the fields of game design, behavioral health, and games for health, and prompted them with 16 sample games. Applying methods including open card sorting and triading, we elicited themes and features (e.g., real-world interaction, game mechanics) around G4H. We found evidence of conceptual differences suggesting that a G4H perspective is not simply the sum of game and health perspectives. At the same time, we found evidence of convergence in stakeholder views, including areas where game experts provided insights about health and vice versa. We discuss how this work can be applied to provide conceptual tools, improve the G4H design process, and guide approaches to encoding G4H-related data for large-scale empirical analysis.

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

Application of expert system to evaluating reactor water cleanup system performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, Katsuji; Nakamura, Masahiro; Nagasawa, Katsumi; Fushiki, Sumiyuki.

1991-01-01

Expert systems employing artificial intelligence (AI) have been developed for finding and elucidating causes of anomalies and malfunctions, presenting pertinent recommendation for countermeasures and for making precautionary diagnosis. On the other hand, further improvements in reliabilities for chemical control are required to promote BWR plant reliability and advancement. Especially, it is necessary to maintain the reactor water purity in high quality to minimize stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in primary cooling system, fuel performance degradation and radiation buildup. The reactor water quality is controlled by the reactor water cleanup (RWCU) system. So, it is very important to maintain the RWCU performance, in order to keep good reactor water quality. This paper describes an expert system used for evaluating RWCU system performance in BWR plants. (author)

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Adherence to best practice guidelines in dyspepsia: a survey comparing dyspepsia experts, community gastroenterologists and primary-care providers.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiegel, B M R; Farid, M; van Oijen, M G H; Laine, L; Howden, C W; Esrailian, E

2009-04-15

Although 'best practice' guidelines for dyspepsia management have been disseminated, it remains unclear whether providers adhere to these guidelines. To compare adherence to 'best practice' guidelines among dyspepsia experts, community gastroenterologists and primary-care providers (PCPs). We administered a vignette survey to elicit knowledge and beliefs about dyspepsia including a set of 16 best practices, to three groups: (i) dyspepsia experts; (ii) community gastroenterologists and (iii) PCPs. The expert, community gastroenterologist and PCP groups endorsed 75%, 73% and 57% of best practices respectively. Gastroenterologists were more likely to adhere with guidelines than PCPs (P guideline adherence (P = 0.04). Gastroenterologists are more likely than PCPs to comply with best practices in dyspepsia, although compliance remains incomplete in both groups. PCPs harbour more concerns regarding long-term PPI use and these concerns may affect therapeutic decision making. This suggests that best practices have not been uniformly adopted and persistent guideline-practice disconnects should be addressed.

Comparación de efectividad de las técnicas de educción de requisitos software: visión novel y experta Comparison on effectiveness of the software requirements elicitation techniques: novice and expert vision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dante Carrizo Moreno

2012-12-01

Full Text Available La Ingeniería de Requisitos puede hacer uso de una gran cantidad de técnicas para educir las necesidades de los usuarios. No obstante, apenas existen guías y criterios prácticos para realizar la selección de técnicas en un proyecto de desarrollo de software. Este artículo intenta conocer la visión que tienen los ingenieros de requisitos noveles acerca de la efectividad de las técnicas de educción y compararlas con la visión de expertos en requisitos. Para efectuar la comparación se utiliza la técnica de emparrillado que permite conocer indirectamente la opinión de los sujetos respecto de las técnicas. Los resultados muestran una sustancial diferencia entre ambas visiones respecto a la efectividad de las técnicas y contexto de la educción. Esto implica que una más amplia formación, y principalmente práctica, es necesaria para que los ingenieros noveles puedan reconocer diferencias de efectividad de las técnicas y poder decidir con mayor certeza sobre las técnicas más adecuadas a utilizar en las sesiones de educción de requisitos.Requirements engineering can use a lot of techniques to gather the users' needs. However, currently there are few practical guidelines and criteria for selecting techniques in a software development project. This paper tries to know the vision that novice requirements engineers have about the effectiveness of requirements elicitation techniques and compare it with the requirements experts' vision. To carry out the comparison, repertory grid technique was used. This technique allows knowing indirectly the subject's opinion on the techniques. The results show a substantial difference between both visions with regard to the techniques and elicitation context. This implies that a more extensive training, and primarily practice, is necessary in order for novice engineers to recognize differences in techniques effectiveness and decide with greater certainty about the most appropriate techniques to use in

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

McDaniels, Timothy; Mills, Tamsin; Gregory, Robin; Ohlson, Dan

2012-12-01

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

1984-11-01

The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables

The chooz a expert survey program and its main conclusions for plant life management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barthelet, B.; Heuze, A.; Hennart, J.C.; Havard, P.

2001-01-01

Because of the importance of PWR components life management represents for Electricity Companies, significant R and D programs are dedicated to identifying and analysing mechanisms and damage rates of the different degradation modes of these components, systems and structures. To assess R and D assumptions and to validate non destructive test results through reviews, expert survey programs on in-situ equipment may enhance the knowledge about most of the various phenomena involved. In this regard, an extensive program was launched after the Chooz A NPP was decommissioned in 1991, after 24 years in operation. This program gathered EDF, IPSN, FRAMATOME, ELECTRABEL and TRACTEBEL into partnership. The expert survey program was performed in various laboratories between 1995 and 1999 and includes: - on-site non destructive testing before sampling, - and metallurgical and mechanical tests performed on samples taken from the nuclear and non nuclear part of the unit. The expert survey program performed by Utilities in various laboratories involved the following equipment: - reactor vessel and internal equipment, - reactor coolant system (dissimilar metal welds, SS welds, cast austenitic ferritic steels), - feedwater plant piping (erosion-corrosion), - electric cables susceptible of temperature and irradiation induced ageing, - anchoring in civil engineering structures, - main primary circuit concerning activation measurement. In conclusion, the extensive Chooz A expert survey program yields numerous significant results. The main outcomes will contribute to validate non destructive tests and enhance our knowledge of some degradation mechanisms of often quite similar components present in units in operation. It is worthy to note that this program is of prime importance for operation feedback; the cost of the whole study amounts to approximately 10 Million Euros. (author)

Assessing Residents' Readiness for OR Autonomy: A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Expert Surgical Teachers' Best Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaodong Phoenix; Sullivan, Amy M; Alseidi, Adnan; Kwakye, Gifty; Smink, Douglas S

Providing resident autonomy in the operating room (OR) is one of the major challenges for surgical educators today. The purpose of this study was to explore what approaches expert surgical teachers use to assess residents' readiness for autonomy in the OR. We particularly focused on the assessments that experts make prior to conducting the surgical time-out. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with expert surgical teachers from March 2016 to September 2016. Purposeful sampling and snowball sampling were applied to identify and recruit expert surgical teachers from general surgery residency programs across the United States to represent a range of clinical subspecialties. All interviews were audio-recorded, deidentified, and transcribed. We applied the Framework Method of content analysis, discussed and reached final consensus on the themes. We interviewed 15 expert teachers from 9 institutions. The majority (13/15) were Program or Associate Program Directors; 47% (7/15) primarily performed complex surgical operations (e.g., endocrine surgery). Five themes regarding how expert surgical teachers determine residents' readiness for OR autonomy before the surgical time-out emerged. These included 3 domains of evidence elicited about the resident (resident characteristics, medical knowledge, and beyond the current OR case), 1 variable relating to attending characteristics, and 1 variable composed of contextual factors. Experts obtained one or more examples of evidence, and adjusted residents' initial autonomy using factors from the attending variable and the context variable. Expert surgical teachers' assessments of residents' readiness for OR autonomy included 5 key components. Better understanding these inputs can contribute to both faculty and resident development, enabling increased resident autonomy and preparation for independent practice. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farmer, J.C.

1998-03-14

The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farmer, J.C.

1998-02-26

The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

Chemically Induced Degradation of the Oncogenic Transcription Factor BCL6

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Kerres

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The transcription factor BCL6 is a known driver of oncogenesis in lymphoid malignancies, including diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL. Disruption of its interaction with transcriptional repressors interferes with the oncogenic effects of BCL6. We used a structure-based drug design to develop highly potent compounds that block this interaction. A subset of these inhibitors also causes rapid ubiquitylation and degradation of BCL6 in cells. These compounds display significantly stronger induction of expression of BCL6-repressed genes and anti-proliferative effects than compounds that merely inhibit co-repressor interactions. This work establishes the BTB domain as a highly druggable structure, paving the way for the use of other members of this protein family as drug targets. The magnitude of effects elicited by this class of BCL6-degrading compounds exceeds that of our equipotent non-degrading inhibitors, suggesting opportunities for the development of BCL6-based lymphoma therapeutics.

Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

Science.gov (United States)

Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

2011-01-01

Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level. Copyright © 2011 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

Perceiving land-degrading activities from the lay perspective in northern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Harry F; Zhang, David D

2005-11-01

Investigation into local peoples' perceptions can produce useful information that could be incorporated into the decision-making process to help resolve environmental problems. Within the arena of land degradation, a number of studies have also been conducted to explore local peoples' views of the problem. However, the perceptions of land-degrading practices of the general public have so far not been actively solicited. This study aimed to contribute to this area of research by adopting the psychometric scaling technique to empirically explore the lay public's ecological risk perceptions of land-degrading activities in Minqin County in Gansu Province, northern China. The primary data were collected via a questionnaire survey (n=1,138) administered between 14 and 31 December 2002. The major findings of the survey were: (1) Respondents perceived the ecological risks posed by different land-degrading activities to be different. (2) There was a considerable incongruence in the way in which mining of groundwater was conceived by experts and laymen, respectively. (3) Respondents were pretty unsure of expert knowledge. (4) Respondents' ecological risk perceptions were significantly affected by their personal attributes. As far as the policy implications of these findings are concerned, this study accentuates that we must be aware of, and involved in, the environmental perceptions of the lay public in order to succeed in guiding any human-environment tensions along more sustainable trajectories and navigating the transition to sustainability.

Expert ease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-04-01

Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

Expert System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

2016-01-01

An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

The Interview as an Approach to Elicit Requirements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luz Marina Iriarte

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In many software projects requirements elicitation is incomplete or inconsistent. One issue that works for this is presented has to be with the requirements engineers use a single method to do it, which can cause a deficiency in the expected results. Among the factors contributing to the success of this stage of the life cycle is an adequate selection of the elicitation technique and other approaches needed. This article describes an experimental study to elicit requirements, in which was applied a combination of methods and techniques, and discusses the advantages of doing it this way. The results obtained allow concluding that to achieve adequate elicitation is necessary to combine several techniques and methods.

Transient and sustained cortical activity elicited by connected speech of varying intelligibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiitinen Hannu

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The robustness of speech perception in the face of acoustic variation is founded on the ability of the auditory system to integrate the acoustic features of speech and to segregate them from background noise. This auditory scene analysis process is facilitated by top-down mechanisms, such as recognition memory for speech content. However, the cortical processes underlying these facilitatory mechanisms remain unclear. The present magnetoencephalography (MEG study examined how the activity of auditory cortical areas is modulated by acoustic degradation and intelligibility of connected speech. The experimental design allowed for the comparison of cortical activity patterns elicited by acoustically identical stimuli which were perceived as either intelligible or unintelligible. Results In the experiment, a set of sentences was presented to the subject in distorted, undistorted, and again in distorted form. The intervening exposure to undistorted versions of sentences rendered the initially unintelligible, distorted sentences intelligible, as evidenced by an increase from 30% to 80% in the proportion of sentences reported as intelligible. These perceptual changes were reflected in the activity of the auditory cortex, with the auditory N1m response (~100 ms being more prominent for the distorted stimuli than for the intact ones. In the time range of auditory P2m response (>200 ms, auditory cortex as well as regions anterior and posterior to this area generated a stronger response to sentences which were intelligible than unintelligible. During the sustained field (>300 ms, stronger activity was elicited by degraded stimuli in auditory cortex and by intelligible sentences in areas posterior to auditory cortex. Conclusions The current findings suggest that the auditory system comprises bottom-up and top-down processes which are reflected in transient and sustained brain activity. It appears that analysis of acoustic features occurs

Green Software Engineering Adaption In Requirement Elicitation Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Umma Khatuna Jannat

2015-08-01

Full Text Available A recent technology investigates the role of concern in the environment software that is green software system. Now it is widely accepted that the green software can fit all process of software development. It is also suitable for the requirement elicitation process. Now a days software companies have used requirements elicitation techniques in an enormous majority. Because this process plays more and more important roles in software development. At the present time most of the requirements elicitation process is improved by using some techniques and tools. So that the intention of this research suggests to adapt green software engineering for the intention of existing elicitation technique and recommend suitable actions for improvement. This research being involved qualitative data. I used few keywords in my searching procedure then searched IEEE ACM Springer Elsevier Google scholar Scopus and Wiley. Find out articles which published in 2010 until 2016. Finding from the literature review Identify 15 traditional requirement elicitations factors and 23 improvement techniques to convert green engineering. Lastly The paper includes a squat review of the literature a description of the grounded theory and some of the identity issues related finding of the necessity for requirements elicitation improvement techniques.

Expert searcher, teacher, content manager, and patient advocate: an exploratory study of clinical librarian roles.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Maria C; Maggio, Lauren A

2013-01-01

The research explored the roles of practicing clinical librarians embedded in a patient care team. Six clinical librarians from Canada and one from the United States were interviewed to elicit detailed descriptions of their clinical roles and responsibilities and the context in which these were performed. Participants were embedded in a wide range of clinical service areas, working with a diverse complement of health professionals. As clinical librarians, participants wore many hats, including expert searcher, teacher, content manager, and patient advocate. Unique aspects of how these roles played out included a sense of urgency surrounding searching activities, the broad dissemination of responses to clinical questions, and leverage of the roles of expert searcher, teacher, and content manager to advocate for patients. Detailed role descriptions of clinical librarians embedded in patient care teams suggest possible new practices for existing clinical librarians, provide direction for training new librarians working in patient care environments, and raise awareness of the clinical librarian specialty among current and budding health information professionals.

EXPERT SYSTEMS

OpenAIRE

Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

2011-01-01

In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

An expert system for steam generator maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remond, A.

1988-01-01

The tube bundles in PWR steam generators are, by far, the major source of problems whether they are due to primary and secondary side corrosion mechanisms or to tube vibration-induced wear at tube support locations. Because of differences in SG operating, materials, and fabrication processes, the damage may differ from steam generator to steam generator. MPGV, an expert system for steam generator maintenance uses all steam generator data containing data on materials, fabrication processes, inservice inspection, and water chemistry. It has access to operational data for individual steam generators and contains models of possible degradation mechanisms. The objectives of the system are: · Diagnosing the most probable degradation mechanism or mechanisms by reviewing the entire steam generator history. · Identifying the tubes most exposed to future damage and evaluating the urgency of repair by simulating the probable development of the problem in time. · Establishing the appropriate preventive actions such as repair, inspection or other measures and establishing an action schedule. The system is intended for utilities either for individual plants before each inspection outage or any time an incident occurs or for a set of plants through a central MPGV center. (author)

Needs Elicitation for Novel Pervasive Healthcare Technology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorpe, Julia Rosemary; Forchhammer, B. H.; Maier, Anja

2016-01-01

for pervasive healthcare technology, in which established methods for engaging users to elicit their needs can be difficult or even impossible to apply. In this paper we document our needs elicitation process in a relevant example as a method story, and present our findings and reflections on this as the key...

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

A web-based delphi study for eliciting helpful criteria in the positive diagnosis of hemophagocytic syndrome in adult patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Hejblum, Gilles; Lambotte, Olivier; Galicier, Lionel; Coppo, Paul; Marzac, Christophe; Aumont, Cédric; Fardet, Laurence

2014-01-01

The diagnosis of the reactive form of hemophagocytic syndrome in adults remains particularly difficult since none of the clinical or laboratory manifestations are specific. We undertook a study in order to elicit which features constitute helpful criteria for a positive diagnosis. In this Delphi study, the features investigated in the questionnaire and the experts invited to participate in the survey were issued from a bibliographic search. The questionnaire was iteratively proposed to experts via a web-based application with a feedback of the results observed at the preceding Delphi round. Experts were asked to label each investigated criterion in one of the following categories: absolutely required, important, of minor interest, or not assessable in the routine practice environment. A positive consensus was a priori defined as at least 75% answers observed in the categories absolutely required and important. The questionnaire investigated 26 criteria and 24 experts originating from 13 countries participated in the second and final Delphi round. A positive consensus was reached for the nine following criteria: unilineage cytopenia, bicytopenia, pancytopenia, presence of hemophagocytosis pictures on a bone marrow aspirate or on a tissue biopsy, high ferritin level, fever, organomegaly, presence of a predisposing underlying disease, and high level of lactate dehydrogenase. A negative consensus was reached for 13 criteria, and an absence of consensus was observed for 4 criteria. The study constitutes the first initiative to date for defining international guidelines devoted to the positive diagnosis of the reactive form of hemophagocytic syndrome.

Expression of three topologically distinct membrane proteins elicits unique stress response pathways in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Science.gov (United States)

Buck, Teresa M; Jordan, Rick; Lyons-Weiler, James; Adelman, Joshua L; Needham, Patrick G; Kleyman, Thomas R; Brodsky, Jeffrey L

2015-06-01

Misfolded membrane proteins are retained in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and are subject to ER-associated degradation, which clears the secretory pathway of potentially toxic species. While the transcriptional response to environmental stressors has been extensively studied, limited data exist describing the cellular response to misfolded membrane proteins. To this end, we expressed and then compared the transcriptional profiles elicited by the synthesis of three ER retained, misfolded ion channels: The α-subunit of the epithelial sodium channel, ENaC, the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator, CFTR, and an inwardly rectifying potassium channel, Kir2.1, which vary in their mass, membrane topologies, and quaternary structures. To examine transcriptional profiles in a null background, the proteins were expressed in yeast, which was previously used to examine the degradation requirements for each substrate. Surprisingly, the proteins failed to induce a canonical unfolded protein response or heat shock response, although messages encoding several cytosolic and ER lumenal protein folding factors rose when αENaC or CFTR was expressed. In contrast, the levels of these genes were unaltered by Kir2.1 expression; instead, the yeast iron regulon was activated. Nevertheless, a significant number of genes that respond to various environmental stressors were upregulated by all three substrates, and compared with previous microarray data we deduced the existence of a group of genes that reflect a novel misfolded membrane protein response. These data indicate that aberrant proteins in the ER elicit profound yet unique cellular responses. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

2014-12-01

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity to Flg22 Is Modulated by Ligand-Induced Degradation and de Novo Synthesis of the Endogenous Flagellin-Receptor FLAGELLIN-SENSING2[W][OPEN

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, John M.; Salamango, Daniel J.; Leslie, Michelle E.; Collins, Carina A.; Heese, Antje

2014-01-01

FLAGELLIN-SENSING2 (FLS2) is the plant cell surface receptor that perceives bacterial flagellin or flg22 peptide, initiates flg22-signaling responses, and contributes to bacterial growth restriction. Flg22 elicitation also leads to ligand-induced endocytosis and degradation of FLS2 within 1 h. Why plant cells remove this receptor precisely at the time during which its function is required remains mainly unknown. Here, we assessed in planta flg22-signaling competency in the context of ligand-induced degradation of endogenous FLS2 and chemical interference known to impede flg22-dependent internalization of FLS2 into endocytic vesicles. Within 1 h after an initial flg22 treatment, Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) leaf tissue was unable to reelicit flg22 signaling in a ligand-, time-, and dose-dependent manner. These results indicate that flg22-induced degradation of endogenous FLS2 may serve to desensitize cells to the same stimulus (homologous desensitization), likely to prevent continuous signal output upon repetitive flg22 stimulation. In addition to impeding ligand-induced FLS2 degradation, pretreatment with the vesicular trafficking inhibitors Wortmannin or Tyrphostin A23 impaired flg22-elicited reactive oxygen species production that was partially independent of BRASSINOSTEROID INSENSITIVE1-ASSOCIATED KINASE1. Interestingly, these inhibitors did not affect flg22-induced mitogen-activated protein kinase phosphorylation, indicating the ability to utilize vesicular trafficking inhibitors to target different flg22-signaling responses. For Tyrphostin A23, reduced flg22-induced reactive oxygen species could be separated from the defect in FLS2 degradation. At later times (>2 h) after the initial flg22 elicitation, recovery of FLS2 protein levels positively correlated with resensitization to flg22, indicating that flg22-induced new synthesis of FLS2 may prepare cells for a new round of monitoring the environment for flg22. PMID:24220680

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Decision support systems and expert systems for risk and safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baybutt, P.

1986-01-01

During the last 1-2 years, rapid developments have occurred in the development of decision support systems and expert systems to aid in decision making related to risk and safety of industrial plants. These activities are most noteworthy in the nuclear industry where numerous systems are under development with implementation often being made on personal computers. An overview of some of these developments is provided, and an example of one recently developed decision support system is given. This example deals with CADET, a system developed to aid the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in making decisions related to the topical issue of source terms resulting from degraded core accidents in light water reactors. The paper concludes with some comments on the likely directions of future developments in decision support systems and expert systems to aid in the management of risk and safety in industrial plants. (author)

Combining Lead Exposure Measurements and Experts' Judgment Through a Bayesian Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Dong-Hee; Park, Ju-Hyun; Lee, Sang-Gil; Kim, Hwan-Cheol; Choi, Sangjun; Jung, Hyejung; Park, Dong-Uk

2017-11-10

CARcinogen EXposure (CAREX) is a carcinogen-surveillance system employed in many countries. To develop Korean CAREX, the intensity of exposure to lead, as an example, was estimated across industries. Airborne-lead measurement records were extracted from the work-environment measurement database (WEMD), which is a nationwide workplace-monitoring database. Lead measurements were log-transformed; then, the log-transformed geometric means (LGMs) and log-transformed geometric standard deviations (LGSDs) were calculated for each industry. However, the data of many industries was limited. To address this shortcoming, experts' judgments of the lead exposure levels across industries were elicited. Experts provided their estimates of lead exposure levels as the boundary of the 5th and 95th percentiles, and it is assumed that these estimates are based on the log-normal distributions of exposure levels. Estimates of LGM and LGSD were extracted from each expert's response and then combined to quantify the experts' prior distribution. Then, the experts' prior distributions for each industry were updated with the corresponding LGMs and LGSDs calculated from the WEMD data through a Bayesian framework, yielding posterior distributions of the LGM and LGSD. The WEMD contains 83035 airborne-lead measurements that were collected between 2002 and 2007. A total of 17 occupational-hygiene professionals with >20 years of experience provided lead exposure estimates. In industries where measurement data were abundant, the measurement data dominated the posterior exposure estimates. For example, for one industry, 'Manufacture of Accumulator, Primary Cells, and Primary Batteries,' 1152 lead measurements [with a geometric mean (GM) of 14.42 µg m-3 and a geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 3.31] were available and 15 experts' responses (with a GM of 7.06 µg m-3 and a GSD of 4.15) were collected, resulting in a posterior exposure estimate of 14.41µg m-3 as the GM with a GSD of 3.31. For

The physics of degradation in engineered materials and devices fundamentals and principles

CERN Document Server

Swingler, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Degradation is apparent in all things and is fundamental to both manufactured and natural objects. It is often described by the second law of thermodynamics, where entropy, a measure of disorder, tends to increase with time in a closed system. Things age! This concise reference work brings together experts and key players engaged in the physics of degradation to present the background science, current thinking and developments in understanding, and gives a detailed account of emerging issues across a selection of engineering applications. The work has been put together to equip the upper level undergraduate student, postgraduate student, as well as the professional engineer and scientist, in the importance of physics of degradation. The aim of The Physics of Degradation in Engineered Materials and Devices is to bridge the gap between published textbooks on the fundamental science of degradation phenomena and published research on the engineering science of actual fabricated materials and devices. A history o...

Merging expert and empirical data for rare event frequency estimation: Pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quigley, John; Hardman, Gavin; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

2011-01-01

Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical Bayes estimator will be more accurate. We propose and evaluate a new method using homogenisation factors under the assumption that events are generated from a Homogeneous Poisson Process. The homogenisation factors are scaling constants, which can be elicited through structured expert judgement and used to align the frequencies of different events, hence homogenising the pool. The estimation error relative to the homogeneity of the pool is examined theoretically indicating that reduced error is associated with larger pool homogeneity. The effects of misspecified expert assessments of the homogenisation factors are examined theoretically and through simulation experiments. Our results show that the proposed Empirical Bayes method using homogenisation factors is robust under different degrees of misspecification.

Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

1989-01-01

In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

Expert status and performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A Burgman

Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

Science.gov (United States)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Medical Expert Systems Survey

OpenAIRE

Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

2017-01-01

International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

Deep sequencing reveals transcriptome re-programming of Taxus × media cells to the elicitation with methyl jasmonate.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Guiling; Yang, Yanfang; Xie, Fuliang; Wen, Jian-Fan; Wu, Jianqiang; Wilson, Iain W; Tang, Qi; Liu, Hongwei; Qiu, Deyou

2013-01-01

Plant cell culture represents an alternative source for producing high-value secondary metabolites including paclitaxel (Taxol®), which is mainly produced in Taxus and has been widely used in cancer chemotherapy. The phytohormone methyl jasmonate (MeJA) can significantly increase the production of paclitaxel, which is induced in plants as a secondary metabolite possibly in defense against herbivores and pathogens. In cell culture, MeJA also elicits the accumulation of paclitaxel; however, the mechanism is still largely unknown. To obtain insight into the global regulation mechanism of MeJA in the steady state of paclitaxel production (7 days after MeJA addition), especially on paclitaxel biosynthesis, we sequenced the transcriptomes of MeJA-treated and untreated Taxus × media cells and obtained ∼ 32.5 M high quality reads, from which 40,348 unique sequences were obtained by de novo assembly. Expression level analysis indicated that a large number of genes were associated with transcriptional regulation, DNA and histone modification, and MeJA signaling network. All the 29 known genes involved in the biosynthesis of terpenoid backbone and paclitaxel were found with 18 genes showing increased transcript abundance following elicitation of MeJA. The significantly up-regulated changes of 9 genes in paclitaxel biosynthesis were validated by qRT-PCR assays. According to the expression changes and the previously proposed enzyme functions, multiple candidates for the unknown steps in paclitaxel biosynthesis were identified. We also found some genes putatively involved in the transport and degradation of paclitaxel. Potential target prediction of miRNAs indicated that miRNAs may play an important role in the gene expression regulation following the elicitation of MeJA. Our results shed new light on the global regulation mechanism by which MeJA regulates the physiology of Taxus cells and is helpful to understand how MeJA elicits other plant species besides Taxus.

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

Science.gov (United States)

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

Materials ageing degradation programme in japan and proactive ageing management in NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, T.

2013-01-01

Predictive and preventive maintenance technologies are increasingly of importance for the long term operation (LTO) of Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants. In order for the realization LTO to be successful, it is essential that aging degradation phenomena should be properly managed by using adequate maintenance programs based on foreseeing the aging phenomena and evaluating their rates of development, where Nuclear Power Plants can be continued to operate beyond the original design life depending upon the regulatory authority rules. In combination with Periodic Safety Review (PSR) and adequate maintenance program, a plant life can be extended to 60 years or more. Plant Life Management (PLiM) is based upon various maintenance program as well as systematic safety review updated based upon the state of the art of science and technology. One of the potential life time limiting issue would be materials ageing degradation and therefore an extensive efforts have been paid world-widely. In 2007, NISA launched a national program on Enhanced Ageing Management Program and 4 nationwide clusters were formed to carry out the national program where materials ageing degradation was one of the major topics. In addition to these degradation modes, one important activities in this program is proactive materials degradation management directed by the author which is a kind of the extension program of NRC PMDA program based upon more fundamental approach by a systematic elicitation by the experts nominated from all over the world. NISA program can be divided into two phases, one is from fiscal years (FY) 2006 - 2010 and the other FY 2011. Later phase is focusing more on System Safety due to Fukushima NPP accident. The main objectives of the Phase I is to evaluate potential and complex degradation phenomena and their mechanisms in order to identify future risks of component aging in nuclear power plants. The following items are of particular concern in this phase: (a) investigation of

Time course of brain activation elicited by basic emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hot, Pascal; Sequeira, Henrique

2013-11-13

Whereas facial emotion recognition protocols have shown that each discrete emotion has a specific time course of brain activation, there is no electrophysiological evidence to support these findings for emotional induction by complex pictures. Our objective was to specify the differences between the time courses of brain activation elicited by feelings of happiness and, with unpleasant pictures, by feelings of disgust and sadness. We compared event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by the watching of high-arousing pictures from the International Affective Picture System, selected to induce specific emotions. In addition to a classical arousal effect on late positive components, we found specific ERP patterns for each emotion in early temporal windows (emotion to be associated with different brain processing after 140 ms, whereas happiness and sadness differed in ERPs elicited at the frontal and central sites after 160 ms. Our findings highlight the limits of the classical averaging of ERPs elicited by different emotions inside the same valence and suggest that each emotion could elicit a specific temporal pattern of brain activation, similar to those observed with emotional face recognition.

Elicited vs. voluntary promises

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ismayilov, H.; Potters, Jan

2017-01-01

We set up an experiment with pre-play communication to study the impact of promise elicitation by trustors from trustees on trust and trustworthiness. When given the opportunity a majority of trustors solicits a promise from the trustee. This drives up the promise making rate by trustees to almost

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Being an expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

2014-01-01

This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

National forest cover change in Congo Basin: deforestation, reforestation, degradation and regeneration for the years 1990, 2000 and 2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Céline, Ernst; Philippe, Mayaux; Astrid, Verhegghen; Catherine, Bodart; Musampa, Christophe; Pierre, Defourny

2013-04-01

This research refers to an object-based automatic method combined with a national expert validation to produce regional and national forest cover change statistics over Congo Basin. A total of 547 sampling sites systematically distributed over the whole humid forest domain are required to cover the six Central African countries containing tropical moist forest. High resolution imagery is used to accurately estimate not only deforestation and reforestation but also degradation and regeneration. The overall method consists of four steps: (i) image automatic preprocessing and preinterpretation, (ii) interpretation by national expert, (iii) statistic computation and (iv) accuracy assessment. The annual rate of net deforestation in Congo Basin is estimated to 0.09% between 1990 and 2000 and of net degradation to 0.05%. Between 2000 and 2005, this unique exercise estimates annual net deforestation to 0.17% and annual net degradation to 0.09%. An accuracy assessment reveals that 92.7% of tree cover (TC) classes agree with independent expert interpretation. In the discussion, we underline the direct causes and the drivers of deforestation. Population density, small-scale agriculture, fuelwood collection and forest's accessibility are closely linked to deforestation, whereas timber extraction has no major impact on the reduction in the canopy cover. The analysis also shows the efficiency of protected areas to reduce deforestation. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on the reduction in CO2 emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and serve as reference for the period. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mieg, Harald A.

2006-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

Comparative histological evaluation of new tyrosine-derived polymers and poly (L-lactic acid) as a function of polymer degradation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooper, K A; Macon, N D; Kohn, J

1998-09-05

Previous studies demonstrated that poly(DTE carbonate) and poly (DTE adipate), two tyrosine-derived polymers, have suitable properties for use in biomedical applications. This study reports the evaluation of the in vivo tissue response to these polymers in comparison to poly(L-lactic acid) (PLLA). Typically, the biocompatibility of a material is determined through histological evaluations as a function of implantation time in a suitable animal model. However, due to changes that can occur in the tissue response at different stages of the degradation process, a fixed set of time points is not ideal for comparative evaluations of materials having different rates of degradation. Therefore the tissue response elicited by poly(DTE carbonate), poly(DTE adipate), and PLLA was evaluated as a function of molecular weight. This allowed the tissue response to be compared at corresponding stages of degradation. Poly(DTE adipate) consistently elicited the mildest tissue response, as judged by the width and lack of cellularity of the fibrous capsule formed around the implant. The tissue response to poly(DTE carbonate) was mild throughout the 570 day study. However, the response to PLLA fluctuated as a function of the degree of degradation, exhibiting an increase in the intensity of inflammation as the implant began to lose mass. At the completion of the study, tissue ingrowth into the degrading and disintegrating poly(DTE adipate) implant was evident while no comparative ingrowth of tissue was seen for PLLA. The similarity of the in vivo and in vitro degradation rates of each polymer confirmed the absence of enzymatic involvement in the degradation process. A comparison of molecular weight retention, water uptake, and mass loss in vivo with two commonly used in vitro systems [phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) and simulated body fluid (SBF)] demonstrated that for the two tyrosine-derived polymers the in vivo results were equally well simulated in vitro with PBS and SBF. However

Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

Expert auditors’ services classification

OpenAIRE

Jolanta Wisniewska

2013-01-01

The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

Video elicitation interviews: a qualitative research method for investigating physician-patient interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Stephen G; Fetters, Michael D

2012-01-01

We describe the concept and method of video elicitation interviews and provide practical guidance for primary care researchers who want to use this qualitative method to investigate physician-patient interactions. During video elicitation interviews, researchers interview patients or physicians about a recent clinical interaction using a video recording of that interaction as an elicitation tool. Video elicitation is useful because it allows researchers to integrate data about the content of physician-patient interactions gained from video recordings with data about participants' associated thoughts, beliefs, and emotions gained from elicitation interviews. This method also facilitates investigation of specific events or moments during interactions. Video elicitation interviews are logistically demanding and time consuming, and they should be reserved for research questions that cannot be fully addressed using either standard interviews or video recordings in isolation. As many components of primary care fall into this category, high-quality video elicitation interviews can be an important method for understanding and improving physician-patient interactions in primary care.

Video Elicitation Interviews: A Qualitative Research Method for Investigating Physician-Patient Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Stephen G.; Fetters, Michael D.

2012-01-01

We describe the concept and method of video elicitation interviews and provide practical guidance for primary care researchers who want to use this qualitative method to investigate physician-patient interactions. During video elicitation interviews, researchers interview patients or physicians about a recent clinical interaction using a video recording of that interaction as an elicitation tool. Video elicitation is useful because it allows researchers to integrate data about the content of physician-patient interactions gained from video recordings with data about participants’ associated thoughts, beliefs, and emotions gained from elicitation interviews. This method also facilitates investigation of specific events or moments during interactions. Video elicitation interviews are logistically demanding and time consuming, and they should be reserved for research questions that cannot be fully addressed using either standard interviews or video recordings in isolation. As many components of primary care fall into this category, high-quality video elicitation interviews can be an important method for understanding and improving physician-patient interactions in primary care. PMID:22412003

LIRA - License Renewal Assistant an expert system advisor for system and component screening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, R.M.; DeLuke, R.J.; Lu, Yi; Catron, S.R.

1992-01-01

In developing a license renewal application for a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to identify those systems and components for which age-related degradation must be evaluated and addressed in detail. One approach, used in the Monticello Lead Plant project, is to screen all plant systems and components, based on criteria developed by the Nuclear Utility Management and Resources Council (NUMARC). This paper describes an expert system developed as an assistant in the application of the screening methodology. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Smith

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators, fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1 the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2 the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making.

The potential for using visual elicitation in understanding preschool ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We explore the use of video and photo elicitation in a research study undertaken to understand the way in which preschool teachers perceive and construct their provision of children's educational experiences. We explore the value of visually elicited interviews based on video footage and photographs captured during ...

Explaining choice option attractiveness by beliefs elicited by the laddering method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.; Bech-Larsen, Tino

2005-01-01

option. The laddering method is used to elicit beliefs of all three types for a choice between conventional and organic pork. As a benchmark, beliefs were also elicited in the traditional way advocated by Ajzen and Fishbein. Using both sets of beliefs in a subsequent survey, it was shown that the beliefs...... elicited by the laddering method increase explanatory power with regard to choice option attractiveness beyond the beliefs elicited by the Ajzen and Fishbein method, and that this additional explanatory power was due to those beliefs which relate the choice option to concepts with a higher level...

Responsibilities in the Usability Requirements Elicitation Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marianella Aveledo

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Like any other software system quality attribute, usability places requirements on software components. In particular, it has been demonstrated that certain usability features have a direct impact throughout the software process. This paper details an approach that looks at how to deal with certain usability features in the early software development stages. In particular, we consider usability features as functional usability requirements using patterns that have been termed usability patterns to elicit requirements. Additionally, we clearly establish the responsibilities of all the players at the usability requirements elicitation stage.

Inositol Polyphosphate Multikinase Inhibits Angiogenesis via Inositol Pentakisphosphate-Induced HIF-1α Degradation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Chenglai; Tyagi, Richa; Chin, Alfred C; Rojas, Tomas; Li, Ruo-Jing; Guha, Prasun; Bernstein, Isaac A; Rao, Feng; Xu, Risheng; Cha, Jiyoung Y; Xu, Jing; Snowman, Adele M; Semenza, Gregg L; Snyder, Solomon H

2018-02-02

Inositol polyphosphate multikinase (IPMK) and its major product inositol pentakisphosphate (IP5) regulate a variety of cellular functions, but their role in vascular biology remains unexplored. We have investigated the role of IPMK in regulating angiogenesis. Deletion of IPMK in fibroblasts induces angiogenesis in both in vitro and in vivo models. IPMK deletion elicits a substantial increase of VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor), which mediates the regulation of angiogenesis by IPMK. The regulation of VEGF by IPMK requires its catalytic activity. IPMK is predominantly nuclear and regulates gene transcription. However, IPMK does not apparently serve as a transcription factor for VEGF. HIF (hypoxia-inducible factor)-1α is a major determinant of angiogenesis and induces VEGF transcription. IPMK deletion elicits a major enrichment of HIF-1α protein and thus VEGF. HIF-1α is constitutively ubiquitinated by pVHL (von Hippel-Lindau protein) followed by proteasomal degradation under normal conditions. However, HIF-1α is not recognized and ubiquitinated by pVHL in IPMK KO (knockout) cells. IP5 reinstates the interaction of HIF-1α and pVHL. HIF-1α prolyl hydroxylation, which is prerequisite for pVHL recognition, is interrupted in IPMK-deleted cells. IP5 promotes HIF-1α prolyl hydroxylation and thus pVHL-dependent degradation of HIF-1α. Deletion of IPMK in mouse brain increases HIF-1α/VEGF levels and vascularization. The increased VEGF in IPMK KO disrupts blood-brain barrier and enhances brain blood vessel permeability. IPMK, via its product IP5, negatively regulates angiogenesis by inhibiting VEGF expression. IP5 acts by enhancing HIF-1α hydroxylation and thus pVHL-dependent degradation of HIF-1α. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Extinction and renewal of cue-elicited reward-seeking.

Science.gov (United States)

Bezzina, Louise; Lee, Jessica C; Lovibond, Peter F; Colagiuri, Ben

2016-12-01

Reward cues can contribute to overconsumption of food and drugs and can relapse. The failure of exposure therapies to reduce overconsumption and relapse is generally attributed to the context-specificity of extinction. However, no previous study has examined whether cue-elicited reward-seeking (as opposed to cue-reactivity) is sensitive to context renewal. We tested this possibility in 160 healthy volunteers using a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) design involving voluntary responding for a high value natural reward (chocolate). One reward cue underwent Pavlovian extinction in the same (Group AAA) or different context (Group ABA) to all other phases. This cue was compared with a second non-extinguished reward cue and an unpaired control cue. There was a significant overall PIT effect with both reward cues eliciting reward-seeking on test relative to the unpaired cue. Pavlovian extinction substantially reduced this effect, with the extinguished reward cue eliciting less reward-seeking than the non-extinguished reward cue. Most interestingly, extinction of cue-elicited reward-seeking was sensitive to renewal, with extinction less effective for reducing PIT when conducted in a different context. These findings have important implications for extinction-based interventions for reducing maladaptive reward-seeking in practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minocycline inhibits D-amphetamine-elicited action potential bursts in a central snail neuron.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y-H; Lin, P-L; Wong, R-W; Wu, Y-T; Hsu, H-Y; Tsai, M-C; Lin, M-J; Hsu, Y-C; Lin, C-H

2012-10-25

Minocycline is a second-generation tetracycline that has been reported to have powerful neuroprotective properties. In our previous studies, we found that d-amphetamine (AMPH) elicited action potential bursts in an identifiable RP4 neuron of the African snail, Achatina fulica Ferussac. This study sought to determine the effects of minocycline on the AMPH-elicited action potential pattern changes in the central snail neuron, using the two-electrode voltage clamping method. Extracellular application of AMPH at 300 μM elicited action potential bursts in the RP4 neuron. Minocycline dose-dependently (300-900 μM) inhibited the action potential bursts elicited by AMPH. The inhibitory effects of minocycline on AMPH-elicited action potential bursts were restored by forskolin (50 μM), an adenylate cyclase activator, and by dibutyryl cAMP (N(6),2'-O-Dibutyryladenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate; 1mM), a membrane-permeable cAMP analog. Co-administration of forskolin (50 μM) plus tetraethylammonium chloride (TEA; 5mM) or co-administration of TEA (5mM) plus dibutyryl cAMP (1mM) also elicited action potential bursts, which were prevented and inhibited by minocycline. In addition, minocycline prevented and inhibited forskolin (100 μM)-elicited action potential bursts. Notably, TEA (50mM)-elicited action potential bursts in the RP4 neuron were not affected by minocycline. Minocycline did not affect steady-state outward currents of the RP4 neuron. However, minocycline did decrease the AMPH-elicited steady-state current changes. Similarly, minocycline decreased the effects of forskolin-elicited steady-state current changes. Pretreatment with H89 (N-[2-(p-Bromocinnamylamino)ethyl]-5-isoquinolinesulfonamide dihydrochloride; 10 μM), a protein kinase A inhibitor, inhibited AMPH-elicited action potential bursts and decreased AMPH-elicited steady-state current changes. These results suggest that the cAMP-protein kinase A signaling pathway and the steady-state current are involved in

Wound healing and degradation of the fibrin sealant Beriplast P following partial liver resection in rabbits.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroez, Monika; Lang, Wiegand; Dickneite, Gerhard

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the degradation kinetics of the fibrin sealant (FS) Beriplast P in an experimental liver surgery model in rabbits. A partial liver resection was performed in 21 rabbits, and the wound area covered with Beriplast P to ensure hemostasis. Wound healing of the resection sites was evaluated morphologically over 11 weeks. Degradation of the FS was evaluated by measuring the thickness of the remaining fibrin layer. Plasma samples were analyzed for antibodies against fibrinogen, albumin, thrombin, fibrin, and factor XIII. No postoperative hemorrhage was observed, indicating successful hemostasis throughout. The FS was degraded with a half-life of about 25 days postapplication and was completely replaced by granulation tissue within 9 weeks. The FS degradation and tissue development followed the general stages of wound healing: inflammation and resorption, proliferation, organization and production of collagen, maturation, and scarring. An immune reaction was elicited against the main four human proteins of the FS. The antibody titers peaked on day 14, with a gradual decrease thereafter. We conclude that the FS accomplished hemostasis, facilitated healing in accordance with natural processes, and was completely degraded over time. In humans, the reduced immunogenicity of the FS would potentially increase its degradation half-life.

Delegating Decisions to Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

2004-01-01

We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

Implications of a New Global Picture of Land Degradation (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, L.; Dent, D.

2009-12-01

Effective responses to desertification have always been hampered by a lack of a scientific understanding and reliable data on the extent and severity of land degradation. We also argue that the poor scientific understanding of desertification is partly a consequence of the lack of reliable data. Policy development has to a large extent relied upon data from the 1990 GLASOD assessment that was compiled from expert judgements. This is a map of perceptions, not measurements, that doesn't stand scrutiny and lent itself to selective interpretations. Based on the GLASOD assessment, land degradation in arid and semi-arid regions have been emphasised over other regions as hotspots of land degradation. A recent analysis of consistent, remotely-sensed data and climatic observations, using clearly-defined methods, makes allowance for droughts and global warming. It indicates that 24 per cent of land has suffered declining net primary productivity over the last 25 years; this area is home to a quarter of the world's people. When adjusted for climatic variations, the loss of primary productivity is interpreted as land degradation. In contrast to received wisdom, dry lands don't feature strongly. Forests and croplands are most affected by land degradation and protected areas fare no better than anywhere else. Unprecedented land use change is being driven not only by local processes but also by external pressures related to burgeoning population, economic & technology developments and globalisation; and unsustainable land use is causing land degradation. This suggests a need for a policy shift from desertification in dry lands to land degradation globally, and from environmental protection to developmental initiatives. The paper will discuss potential responses to land degradation that are informed by the new insights into the extent and severity of land degradation globally.

Application of expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basden, A

1983-11-01

This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt: Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.D.

1984-01-01

The Columbia River Basalts Underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett flow interior. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. 210 refs., 12 figs., 5 tabs

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

2018-01-01

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection

Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

2014-01-01

to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

Surgical experts: born or made?

Science.gov (United States)

Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

2013-01-01

The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Law for nuclear experts only

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

1980-02-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

2017-09-19

Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

An expert system for microbiologically influenced corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carney, C.E.; Licina, G.J.

1991-01-01

Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a damage mechanism that can cause serious degradation of service water system components. MIC can be particularly insidious since damage can occur very quickly, even in environments otherwise resistant to corrosion. Plant operations or maintenance personnel or system engineers typically do not have sufficient expertise to predict when and where MIC may occur or what methods of treatment are effective. An expert system (MICPro) has been devised which provides a tool for utilities to predict where MIC will occur, which systems or components are most susceptible, how operating parameters may affect vulnerability, and how to implement corrective and preventative measures. The system is designed to be simple to use: required inputs are common system parameters and results are presented as numbers from 1 to 10 indicating the likelihood of damage due to the given input. In this paper the structure and operation of the system is described, and future refinements are discussed

Do community and autonomy moral violations elicit different emotions?

Science.gov (United States)

Kollareth, Dolichan; Kikutani, Mariko; Shirai, Mariko; Russell, James A

2018-06-11

According to one important set of theories, different domains of immorality are linked to different discrete emotions-panculturally. Violations against the community elicit contempt, whereas violations against an individual elicit anger. To test this theory, American, Indian and Japanese participants (N = 480) indicated contempt and anger reactions (with verbal rating and face selection) to both the types of immorality. To remedy method problems in previous research, community and autonomy violations were created for the same story-frame, by varying the target to be either the community or an individual. Community and autonomy violations did not differ significantly in the emotion elicited: overall, both types of violations elicited more anger than contempt (and more negative emotion of any kind than positive emotion). By verbal rating, Americans and Indians reported more anger than contempt for both types of violation, whereas Japanese reported more contempt than anger for both types. By face selection, the three cultural groups selected anger more than contempt for both types of violation. The results speak against defining distinct domains of morality by their association with distinct emotions. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

Mapping Deforestation and Forest Degradation Patterns in Western Himalaya, Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faisal Mueen Qamer

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The Himalayan mountain forest ecosystem has been degrading since the British ruled the area in the 1850s. Local understanding of the patterns and processes of degradation is desperately required to devise management strategies to halt this degradation and provide long-term sustainability. This work comprises a satellite image based study in combination with national expert validation to generate sub-district level statistics for forest cover over the Western Himalaya, Pakistan, which accounts for approximately 67% of the total forest cover of the country. The time series of forest cover maps (1990, 2000, 2010 reveal extensive deforestation in the area. Indeed, approximately 170,684 ha of forest has been lost, which amounts to 0.38% per year clear cut or severely degraded during the last 20 years. A significant increase in the rate of deforestation is observed in the second half of the study period, where much of the loss occurs at the western borders along with Afghanistan. The current study is the first systematic and comprehensive effort to map changes to forest cover in Northern Pakistan. Deforestation hotspots identified at the sub-district level provide important insight into deforestation patterns, which may facilitate the development of appropriate forest conservation and management strategies in the country.

Elicitation threshold of cobalt chloride

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fischer, Louise A; Johansen, Jeanne D; Voelund, Aage

2016-01-01

: On the basis of five included studies, the ED10 values of aqueous cobalt chloride ranged between 0.0663 and 1.95 µg cobalt/cm(2), corresponding to 30.8-259 ppm. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis provides an overview of the doses of cobalt that are required to elicit allergic cobalt contactdermatitis in sensitized...

Film clips and narrative text as subjective emotion elicitation techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Zupan, Barbra; Babbage, Duncan R

2017-01-01

Film clips and narrative text are useful techniques in eliciting emotion in a laboratory setting but have not been examined side-by-side using the same methodology. This study examined the self-identification of emotions elicited by film clip and narrative text stimuli to confirm that selected stimuli appropriately target the intended emotions. Seventy participants viewed 30 film clips, and 40 additional participants read 30 narrative texts. Participants identified the emotion experienced (happy, sad, angry, fearful, neutral-six stimuli each). Eighty-five percent of participants self-identified the target emotion for at least two stimuli for all emotion categories of film clips, except angry (only one) and for all categories of narrative text, except fearful (only one). The most effective angry text was correctly identified 74% of the time. Film clips were more effective in eliciting all target emotions in participants for eliciting the correct emotion (angry), intensity rating (happy, sad), or both (fearful).

Experts in science and society

CERN Document Server

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2004-01-01

In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

Expert system in PNC, 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

1990-01-01

The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

Experts on public trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2007-01-01

a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eggermont, G.

2000-01-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

PSG-EXPERT. An expert system for the diagnosis of sleep disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Fred, A; Filipe, J; Partinen, M; Paiva, T

2000-01-01

This paper describes PSG-EXPERT, an expert system in the domain of sleep disorders exploring polysomnographic data. The developed software tool is addressed from two points of view: (1)--as an integrated environment for the development of diagnosis-oriented expert systems; (2)--as an auxiliary diagnosis tool in the particular domain of sleep disorders. Developed over a Windows platform, this software tool extends one of the most popular shells--CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) with the following features: backward chaining engine; graph-based explanation facilities; knowledge editor including a fuzzy fact editor and a rules editor, with facts-rules integrity checking; belief revision mechanism; built-in case generator and validation module. It therefore provides graphical support for knowledge acquisition, edition, explanation and validation. From an application domain point of view, PSG-Expert is an auxiliary diagnosis system for sleep disorders based on polysomnographic data, that aims at assisting the medical expert in his diagnosis task by providing automatic analysis of polysomnographic data, summarising the results of this analysis in terms of a report of major findings and possible diagnosis consistent with the polysomnographic data. Sleep disorders classification follows the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. Major features of the system include: browsing on patients data records; structured navigation on Sleep Disorders descriptions according to ASDA definitions; internet links to related pages; diagnosis consistent with polysomnographic data; graphical user-interface including graph-based explanatory facilities; uncertainty modelling and belief revision; production of reports; connection to remote databases.

Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

1992-01-01

Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development.

Science.gov (United States)

1993-01-01

As part of the preparation for the up-coming International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met at UN headquarters on January 20-24, 1992. The group noted that the momentum of population growth was expected to add 3 billion people to the global population between 1985 and 2025, with more than 90% of the growth occurring in the developing countries which are least able to respond to the attendant resource and environmental demands. The expert group discussed the interaction of population and resources, specifically the impact of population growth on the environment and carrying capacity. The meeting then focused on environmental discontinuities and uncertainties and on environmental degradation, specifically the loss of agricultural land, the destruction of tropical forests, fresh-water resource, the loss of biological diversify, and climate change. Following their deliberations, the expert group drafted 18 recommendations addressed to governments, social institutions, and international organizations. The group urged that governments establish or strengthen the integration of environmental and population concerns into development policy-making and planning and support technologies to achieve sustained economic growth and development while striving to replace the use of fossil fuels with renewable resources. Areas of the environment subject to acute population pressure should be identified and policies devised to reduce that pressure. Ecologically helpful labor-intensive projects should be implemented for their dual benefits. Women should be included in these activities, and their status in society, therefore, should be improved through improved education and participatory opportunities. The uses of water should be optimized to acknowledge its scarcity. The delivery of service to alleviate poverty should proceed in a manner that invites community participation, which, along with education, will be vital to institute these changes. Adequate

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: m.m.leeuwenburgh@amc.uva.nl [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2014-01-15

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap

2014-01-01

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher

Improvement of Requirement Elicitation Process through Cognitive Psychology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sana Fatima

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Proper requirement elicitation is necessary for client satisfaction along with the overall project success, but requirement engineers face problems in understanding user requirements and the users of the required system fail to make requirement engineering team understand what they actually want. It is then responsibility of requirement engineers to extract proper requirements. This paper discusses how to use cognitive psychology and learning style models (LSM to understand the psychology of clients. Moreover, it also discusses usage of proper elicitation technique according to one’s learning style and gather the right requirements.

Expert monitoring and verbal feedback as sources of performance pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, John J; Park, Inchon; Chen, Jing; Mehta, Ranjana K; McCulloch, Austin; Rhee, Joohyun; Wright, David L

2018-05-01

The influence of monitoring-pressure and verbal feedback on the performance of the intrinsically stable bimanual coordination patterns of in-phase and anti-phase was examined. The two bimanual patterns were produced under three conditions: 1) no-monitoring, 2) monitoring-pressure (viewed by experts), and 3) monitoring-pressure (viewed by experts) combined with verbal feedback emphasizing poor performance. The bimanual patterns were produced at self-paced movement frequencies. Anti-phase coordination was always less stable than in-phase coordination across all three conditions. When performed under conditions 2 and 3, both bimanual patterns were performed with less variability in relative phase across a wide range of self-paced movement frequencies compared to the no-monitoring condition. Thus, monitoring-pressure resulted in performance stabilization rather than degradation and the presence of verbal feedback had no impact on the influence of monitoring pressure. The current findings are inconsistent with the predictions of explicit monitoring theory; however, the findings are consistent with studies that have revealed increased stability for the system's intrinsic dynamics as a result of attentional focus and intentional control. The results are discussed within the contexts of the dynamic pattern theory of coordination, explicit monitoring theory, and action-focused theories as explanations for choking under pressure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Intelligent programs-expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gledhill, V X

1982-01-01

In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

TRAC-Monterey FY16 Work Program Development and Report of Research Elicitation

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

any changes to priorities or additional projects that require immediate research. Work Program; Research Elicitation Unclassified UU UU UU UU 35 MAJ...conduct analysis for the Army. 1 Marks, Chris, Nesbitt, Peter. TRAC FY14 Research Requirements Elicitation . Technical Report TRAC-M-TM-13-059. 700 Dyer... Requirements Elicitation Interviews Interview Guide: 1. Describe a research requirement in the areas of topics, techniques, and methodologies. 2

Expert Opinion to Identify High-Risk Entry Routes of Canine Rabies into Papua New Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Brookes, V J; Ward, M P

2017-03-01

The proximity of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to canine rabies-endemic countries in South-East Asia presents a risk of incursion of this disease into PNG and the rest of the Oceanic region. The objective of this study was to identify the highest risk routes for entry of dogs - associated with movement of people - into PNG from canine rabies-endemic countries. A structured, in-country expert-elicitation workshop was used, and 20 entry routes were identified. The highest risk routes were three land routes from Papua, Indonesia (hunters, traditional border crossers and unregulated, unchecked 'shopper-crossers') and two sea routes (fishing and logging). These results will be used to direct more detailed risk assessments to develop surveillance strategies and incursion response plans. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Pattern visual evoked potentials elicited by organic electroluminescence screen.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Celso Soiti; Shinoda, Kei; Matsumoto, Harue; Funada, Hideaki; Sasaki, Kakeru; Minoda, Haruka; Iwata, Takeshi; Mizota, Atsushi

2014-01-01

To determine whether organic electroluminescence (OLED) screens can be used as visual stimulators to elicit pattern-reversal visual evoked potentials (p-VEPs). Checkerboard patterns were generated on a conventional cathode-ray tube (S710, Compaq Computer Co., USA) screen and on an OLED (17 inches, 320 × 230 mm, PVM-1741, Sony, Tokyo, Japan) screen. The time course of the luminance changes of each monitor was measured with a photodiode. The p-VEPs elicited by these two screens were recorded from 15 eyes of 9 healthy volunteers (22.0 ± 0.8 years). The OLED screen had a constant time delay from the onset of the trigger signal to the start of the luminescence change. The delay during the reversal phase from black to white for the pattern was 1.0 msec on the cathode-ray tube (CRT) screen and 0.5 msec on the OLED screen. No significant differences in the amplitudes of P100 and the implicit times of N75 and P100 were observed in the p-VEPs elicited by the CRT and the OLED screens. The OLED screen can be used as a visual stimulator to elicit p-VEPs; however the time delay and the specific properties in the luminance change must be taken into account.

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-01-01

Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

TU Delft expert judgment data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

2008-01-01

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

Expert system technology for the military

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

1988-01-01

This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

1996-01-01

This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

Waste Handling Shaft concrete liner degradation conclusions and recommendations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

The primary function of the Waste Handling Shaft (WHS) at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is to permit the transfer of radioactive waste from the surface waste handling building to the underground storage area. It also serves as an intake shaft for small volumes of air during normal storage operations and as an emergency escape route. Part of the construction was the placement of a concrete liner and steel reinforced key in 1984. During a routine shaft inspection in May 1990, some degradation of the WHS concrete liner was observed between the depths of 800 and 900 feet below the ground surface. Detailed investigations of the liner had been carried out by Sandia National Laboratories and by Westinghouse Electric Corporation Waste Isolation Division (WID) through Lankard Materials Laboratory. Observations, reports, and data support the conclusion that the concrete degradation, resulting from attack by chemically aggressive brine, is a localized phenomena. It is the opinion of the WID that the degradation is not considered an immediate or near term concern; this is supported by technical experts. WID recommendations have been made which, when implemented, will ensure an extended liner life. Based on the current assessment of available data and the proposed shaft liner monitoring program described in this report, it is reasonable to assume that the operational life of the concrete shaft liner can safely support the 25-year life of the WIPP. Analysis of data indicates that degradation of the shaft's concrete liner is attributed to chemically aggressive brine seeping through construction joints and shrinkage cracks from behind the liner in and around the 834-foot depth. Chemical and mechanical components of concrete degradation have been identified. Chemical attack is comprised of several stages of concrete alteration. The other component, mechanical degradation, results from the expansive forces of crystals forming in the concrete pore space

Computer Based Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

1985-01-01

Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

Will the Oxygen-Phosphorus Paradigm Persist? - Expert Views of the Future of Management and Restoration of Eutrophic Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Nygrén, Nina A.; Tapio, Petri; Horppila, Jukka

2017-11-01

In the age of climate change, the demand and lack of pure water challenges many communities. Substantial amount of effort is put in every year to manage and restore degraded lakes while the long-term effects of those efforts are only poorly known or monitored. Oxygenation, or aeration, is used extensively for the restoration of eutrophic lakes, although many studies question whether this process improves the status of the lakes in the long-term. The desired effect of oxygenation is based on paradigmatic theories that, in the light of recent literature, might not be adequate when long-term improvements are sought. This article canvasses expert views on the feasibility of the `oxygen-phosphorus paradigm' as well as the future of the management and restoration of eutrophic lakes, based on an international, two-rounded, expert panel survey (Delphi study), employing 200 freshwater experts from 33 nationalities, contacted at three conferences on the topic. The conclusion is that the oxygen-phosphorus paradigm seems to be rather persistent. The experts considered oxygenation to be a valid short-term lake restoration method, but not without harmful side-effects. In addition, experts' low level of trust in the adequacy of the scientific knowledge on the effects of restorations and in the use of the scientific knowledge as a basis of choice of restoration methods, could be signs of a paradigm shift towards an outlook emphasizing more effective catchment management over short-term restorations. The expert panel also anticipated that reducing external nutrient loads from both point and diffuse sources will succeed in the future.

Entropy-optimal weight constraint elicitation with additive multi-attribute utility models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Valkenhoef , van Gert; Tervonen, Tommi

2016-01-01

We consider the elicitation of incomplete preference information for the additive utility model in terms of linear constraints on the weights. Eliciting incomplete preferences using holistic pair-wise judgments is convenient for the decision maker, but selecting the best pair-wise comparison is

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

[Deontology of the medical expert].

Science.gov (United States)

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

Sample Size for Measuring Grammaticality in Preschool Children from Picture-Elicited Language Samples

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenberg, Sarita L.; Guo, Ling-Yu

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a shorter language sample elicited with fewer pictures (i.e., 7) would yield a percent grammatical utterances (PGU) score similar to that computed from a longer language sample elicited with 15 pictures for 3-year-old children. Method: Language samples were elicited by asking forty…

Expert systems: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdejo, F.

1985-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

Eliciting Information on Sensitive Matters Without Inviting ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Eliciting Information on Sensitive Matters. Without Inviting Respondents' ... methods based on Randomized Response tech- niques. ... while collecting data on some sensitive issues are well ..... Suppose there is an association of professionals.

Aging of nuclear station diesel generators: Evaluation of operating and expert experience: Phase 1, Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoopingarner, K.R.; Vause, J.W.; Dingee, D.A.; Nesbitt, J.F.

1987-08-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory evaluated operational and expert experience pertaining to the aging degradation of diesel generators in nuclear service. The research, sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), identified and characterized the contribution of aging to emergency diesel generator failures. This report, Volume I, reviews diesel-generator experience to identify the systems and components most subject to aging degradation and isolates the major causes of failure that may affect future operational readiness. Evaluations show that as plants age, the percent of aging-related failures increases and failure modes change. A compilation is presented of recommended corrective actions for the failures identified. This study also includes a review of current, relevant industry programs, research, and standards. Volume II reports the results of an industry-wide workshop held on May 28 and 29, 1986 to discuss the technical issues associated with aging of nuclear service emergency diesel generators

Preserving experience through expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

1989-01-01

Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

Operational expert system applications in Canada

CERN Document Server

Suen, Ching Y

1992-01-01

This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

Pattern Visual Evoked Potentials Elicited by Organic Electroluminescence Screen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Celso Soiti Matsumoto

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. To determine whether organic electroluminescence (OLED screens can be used as visual stimulators to elicit pattern-reversal visual evoked potentials (p-VEPs. Method. Checkerboard patterns were generated on a conventional cathode-ray tube (S710, Compaq Computer Co., USA screen and on an OLED (17 inches, 320 × 230 mm, PVM-1741, Sony, Tokyo, Japan screen. The time course of the luminance changes of each monitor was measured with a photodiode. The p-VEPs elicited by these two screens were recorded from 15 eyes of 9 healthy volunteers (22.0 ± 0.8 years. Results. The OLED screen had a constant time delay from the onset of the trigger signal to the start of the luminescence change. The delay during the reversal phase from black to white for the pattern was 1.0 msec on the cathode-ray tube (CRT screen and 0.5 msec on the OLED screen. No significant differences in the amplitudes of P100 and the implicit times of N75 and P100 were observed in the p-VEPs elicited by the CRT and the OLED screens. Conclusion. The OLED screen can be used as a visual stimulator to elicit p-VEPs; however the time delay and the specific properties in the luminance change must be taken into account.

Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Grider, Daryl A.

1994-01-01

Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

Expert knowledge as a foundation for the management of secretive species and their habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, C. Ashton; Collazo, Jaime

2012-01-01

In this chapter, we share lessons learned during the elicitation and application of expert knowledge in the form of a belief network model for the habitat of a waterbird, the King Rail (Rallus elegans). A belief network is a statistical framework used to graphically represent and evaluate hypothesized cause and effect relationships among variables. Our model was a pilot project to explore the value of such a model as a tool to help the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) conserve species that lack sufficient empirical data to guide management decisions. Many factors limit the availability of empirical data that can support landscape-scale conservation planning. Globally, most species simply have not yet been subject to empirical study (Wilson 2000). Even for well-studied species, data are often restricted to specific geographic extents, to particular seasons, or to specific segments of a species’ life history. The USFWS mandates that the agency’s conservation actions (1) be coordinated across regional landscapes, (2) be founded on the best available science (with testable assumptions), and (3) support adaptive management through monitoring and assessment of action outcomes. Given limits on the available data, the concept of “best available science” in the context of conservation planning generally includes a mix of empirical data and expert knowledge (Sullivan et al. 2006).

The Sport Expert's Attention Superiority on Skill-related Scene Dynamic by the Activation of left Medial Frontal Gyrus: An ERP and LORETA Study.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Mengyang; Qi, Changzhu; Lu, Yang; Song, Amanda; Hayat, Saba Z; Xu, Xia

2018-05-21

Extensive studies have shown that a sports expert is superior to a sports novice in visually perceptual-cognitive processes of sports scene information, however the attentional and neural basis of it has not been thoroughly explored. The present study examined whether a sport expert has the attentional superiority on scene information relevant to his/her sport skill, and explored what factor drives this superiority. To address this problem, EEGs were recorded as participants passively viewed sport scenes (tennis vs. non-tennis) and negative emotional faces in the context of a visual attention task, where the pictures of sport scenes or of negative emotional faces randomly followed the pictures with overlapping sport scenes and negative emotional faces. ERP results showed that for experts, the evoked potential of attentional competition elicited by the overlap of tennis scene was significantly larger than that evoked by the overlap of non-tennis scene, while this effect was absent for novices. The LORETA showed that the experts' left medial frontal gyrus (MFG) cortex was significantly more active as compared to the right MFG when processing the overlap of tennis scene, but the lateralization effect was not significant in novices. Those results indicate that experts have attentional superiority on skill-related scene information, despite intruding the scene through negative emotional faces that are prone to cause negativity bias toward their visual field as a strong distractor. This superiority is actuated by the activation of left MFG cortex and probably due to self-reference. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An expert system for uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

1989-01-01

Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

Expert software for accident identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

2003-01-01

Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

PABRE-Proj: applying patterns in requirements elicitation

OpenAIRE

Palomares Bonache, Cristina; Quer Bosor, Maria Carme; Franch Gutiérrez, Javier

2013-01-01

Software requirement patterns have been proposed as a type of artifact for fostering requirements reuse. In this paper, we present PABRE-Proj, a tool aimed at supporting requirements elicitation and specification. Peer Reviewed

BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

2004-01-01

At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

2010-01-01

Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

Aging of nuclear station diesel generators: Evaluation of operating and expert experience: Workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoopingarner, K.R.; Vause, J.W.

1987-08-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) evaluated operational and expert experience pertaining to the aging degradation of diesel generators in nuclear service. The research, sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), identified and characterized the contribution of aging to emergency diesel generator failures. This report, Volume II, reports the results of an industry-wide workshop held on May 28 and 29, 1986, to discuss the technical issues associated with aging of nuclear service emergency diesel generators. The technical issues discussed most extensively were: man/machine interfaces, component interfaces, thermal gradients of startup and cooldown and the need for an accurate industry database for trend analysis of the diesel generator system

State-of-the-Art Prescriptive Criteria Weight Elicitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mona Riabacke

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Comparatively few of the vast amounts of decision analytical methods suggested have been widely spread in actual practice. Some approaches have nevertheless been more successful in this respect than others. Quantitative decision making has moved from the study of decision theory founded on a single criterion towards decision support for more realistic decision-making situations with multiple, often conflicting, criteria. Furthermore, the identified gap between normative and descriptive theories seems to suggest a shift to more prescriptive approaches. However, when decision analysis applications are used to aid prescriptive decision-making processes, additional demands are put on these applications to adapt to the users and the context. In particular, the issue of weight elicitation is crucial. There are several techniques for deriving criteria weights from preference statements. This is a cognitively demanding task, subject to different biases, and the elicited values can be heavily dependent on the method of assessment. There have been a number of methods suggested for assessing criteria weights, but these methods have properties which impact their applicability in practice. This paper provides a survey of state-of-the-art weight elicitation methods in a prescriptive setting.

Trendwatch combining expert opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

2006-01-01

In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

2018-04-01

We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICHERSU Iulian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

URBAN FRESHWATER USERS WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR UPLAND DEGRADED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF DECHATU IN DIRE DAWA ADMINISTRATION, ETHIOPIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alem MEZGEBO

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The study assesses urban freshwater users’ perception of watershed degradation and users' willingness to pay for upland degraded watershed management. Cross sectional data was collected from 282 urban freshwater users. A number of causes and effects of watershed degradation and water supply problems are identified. Economic instruments and mechanisms are also identified as the basis of charging and collecting the fee for watershed management, respectively. Besides, contingent valuation result shows that about 82 percent of the respondents were willing to pay for upland degraded watershed management. The mean willingness to pay from the spike model was computed to be 97 Ethiopian birr (ETB per annum for five years whereas the mean willingness to pay from the open-ended elicitation method was computed 70 ETB per year. Urban freshwater user willingness to pay is affected by total income, initial bids, marital status, ownership of house and educational levels. The study recommends that any watershed management activities need to consider the socio-economic variables of the affected respondents. Besides, it is worthy to consider the demand of the urban dweller (downstream users for any upland degraded watershed management.

A law for nuclear experts only

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, H.

1980-01-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

Effects of penicillin on procaine-elicited bursts of potential in central neuron of snail, Achatina fulica.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-Hung; Lu, Kuan-Ling; Hsiao, Ru-Wan; Lee, Ya-Ling; Tsai, Hong-Chieh; Lin, Chia Hsien; Tsai, Ming-Cheng

2008-08-01

Effects of penicillin on changes in procaine-elicited bursts of potential (BoP) were studied in a central neuron (RP4) of snail, Achatina fulica Ferussac. Procaine elicited BoP in the RP4 neuron while penicillin elicited depolarization of the neuron. Penicillin decreased the BoP elicited by procaine in a concentration-dependent manner. The effect of penicillin on the procaine-elicited BoP was not altered in the preparations treated with ascorbate or L-NAME (N-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester). However, the inhibitory effect of penicillin on the procaine-elicited BoP was enhanced with a decrease in extracellular sodium ion. Sodium ion was one of the important ions contributing to the action potential of the neuron. Two-electrode voltage-clamp studies revealed that penicillin decreased the fast sodium inward current of the neuron. It is concluded that penicillin inhibited the BoP elicited by procaine and sodium ion altered the effect of penicillin on procaine-elicited BoP.

Operational expert system applications in Europe

CERN Document Server

Zarri, Gian Piero

1992-01-01

Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

Salient Beliefs in Majoring in Management Information Systems: An Elicitation Study

Science.gov (United States)

Chipidza, Wallace; Green, Gina; Riemenschneider, Cindy

2016-01-01

Research utilizing the Theory of Planned Behavior to understand behavior should first elicit beliefs about the phenomenon from the target population. In order to understand the reasons why students choose to major or not major in Management Information Systems (MIS), we elicited beliefs from 136 students attending university in the United States…

An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

2013-02-01

Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

Expert system application education project

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

1988-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

Belief elicitation in experiments: Is there a hedging problem?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander

2010-01-01

Belief-elicitation experiments usually reward accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. But this allows risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of the other decisions. So can we trust the existing belief-elicitation results...... opportunities are very prominent. If hedging opportunities are transparent, and incentives to hedge are strong, many subjects do spot hedging opportunities and respond to them. The bias can go beyond players actually hedging themselves, because some expect others to hedge and best respond to this....

A cell wall-degrading esterase of Xanthomonas oryzae requires a unique substrate recognition module for pathogenesis on rice.

Science.gov (United States)

Aparna, Gudlur; Chatterjee, Avradip; Sonti, Ramesh V; Sankaranarayanan, Rajan

2009-06-01

Xanthomonas oryzae pv oryzae (Xoo) causes bacterial blight, a serious disease of rice (Oryza sativa). LipA is a secretory virulence factor of Xoo, implicated in degradation of rice cell walls and the concomitant elicitation of innate immune responses, such as callose deposition and programmed cell death. Here, we present the high-resolution structural characterization of LipA that reveals an all-helical ligand binding module as a distinct functional attachment to the canonical hydrolase catalytic domain. We demonstrate that the enzyme binds to a glycoside ligand through a rigid pocket comprising distinct carbohydrate-specific and acyl chain recognition sites where the catalytic triad is situated 15 A from the anchored carbohydrate. Point mutations disrupting the carbohydrate anchor site or blocking the pocket, even at a considerable distance from the enzyme active site, can abrogate in planta LipA function, exemplified by loss of both virulence and the ability to elicit host defense responses. A high conservation of the module across genus Xanthomonas emphasizes the significance of this unique plant cell wall-degrading function for this important group of plant pathogenic bacteria. A comparison with the related structural families illustrates how a typical lipase is recruited to act on plant cell walls to promote virulence, thus providing a remarkable example of the emergence of novel functions around existing scaffolds for increased proficiency of pathogenesis during pathogen-plant coevolution.

Added value of experts' knowledge to improve a quantitative microbial exposure assessment model--Application to aseptic-UHT food products.

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol, Laure; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Magras, Catherine; Albert, Isabelle; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2015-10-15

In a previous study, a quantitative microbial exposure assessment (QMEA) model applied to an aseptic-UHT food process was developed [Pujol, L., Albert, I., Magras, C., Johnson, N. B., Membré, J. M. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic UHT product failure rate. 2015 International Journal of Food Microbiology. 192, 124-141]. It quantified Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) associated with Bacillus cereus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus per process module (nine modules in total from raw material reception to end-product storage). Previously, the probabilistic model inputs were set by experts (using knowledge and in-house data). However, only the variability dimension was taken into account. The model was then improved using expert elicitation knowledge in two ways. First, the model was refined by adding the uncertainty dimension to the probabilistic inputs, enabling to set a second order Monte Carlo analysis. The eight following inputs, and their impact on SFR, are presented in detail in this present study: D-value for each bacteria of interest (B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus) associated with the inactivation model for the UHT treatment step, i.e., two inputs; log reduction (decimal reduction) number associated with the inactivation model for the packaging sterilization step for each bacterium and each part of the packaging (product container and sealing component), i.e., four inputs; and bacterial spore air load of the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet rooms, i.e., two inputs. Second, the model was improved by leveraging expert knowledge to develop further the existing model. The proportion of bacteria in the product which settled on surface of pipes (between the UHT treatment and the aseptic tank on one hand, and between the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet on the other hand) leading to a possible biofilm formation for each bacterium, was better characterized. It was modeled as a function of the hygienic design level of the aseptic

The First Expert CAI System

Science.gov (United States)

Feurzeig, Wallace

1984-01-01

The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert database system for quality control

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

1993-09-01

There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

Expert systems in process control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wittig, T.

1987-01-01

To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

Evaluation of Antioxidant and Antibacterial Potentials of Nigella sativa L. Suspension Cultures under Elicitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hera Chaudhry

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Nigella sativa L. (family Ranunculaceae is an annual herb of immense medicinal properties because of its major active components (i.e., thymoquinone (TQ, thymohydroquinone (THQ, and thymol (THY. Plant tissue culture techniques like elicitation, Agrobacterium mediated transformation, hairy root culture, and so on, are applied for substantial metabolite production. This study enumerates the antibacterial and antioxidant potentials of N. sativa epicotyl suspension cultures under biotic and abiotic elicitation along with concentration optimization of the elicitors for enhanced TQ and THY production. Cultures under different concentrations of pectin and manganese chloride (MnCl2 elicitation (i.e., 5 mg/L, 10 mg/L, and 15 mg/L showed that the control, MnCl2 10 mg/L, and pectin 15 mg/L suspension extracts greatly inhibited the growth of E. coli, S. typhimurium, and S. aureus (MIC against E. coli, i.e., 2.35±0.8, 2.4±0.2, and 2.46±0.5, resp.. Elicitation decreased SOD enzyme activity whereas CAT enzyme activity increased remarkably under MnCl2 elicitation. MnCl2 10 mg/L and pectin 15 mg/L elicitation enhanced the DPPH radical inhibition ability, but ferric scavenging activity was comparable to the control. TQ and THY were quantified by LC-MS/MS in the cultures with high bioactive properties revealing maximum content under MnCl2 10 mg/L elicitation. Therefore, MnCl2 elicitation can be undertaken on large scale for sustainable metabolite production.

Evaluation of Antioxidant and Antibacterial Potentials of Nigella sativa L. Suspension Cultures under Elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhry, Hera; Fatima, Nida; Ahmad, Iffat Zareen

2015-01-01

Nigella sativa L. (family Ranunculaceae) is an annual herb of immense medicinal properties because of its major active components (i.e., thymoquinone (TQ), thymohydroquinone (THQ), and thymol (THY)). Plant tissue culture techniques like elicitation, Agrobacterium mediated transformation, hairy root culture, and so on, are applied for substantial metabolite production. This study enumerates the antibacterial and antioxidant potentials of N. sativa epicotyl suspension cultures under biotic and abiotic elicitation along with concentration optimization of the elicitors for enhanced TQ and THY production. Cultures under different concentrations of pectin and manganese chloride (MnCl2) elicitation (i.e., 5 mg/L, 10 mg/L, and 15 mg/L) showed that the control, MnCl2 10 mg/L, and pectin 15 mg/L suspension extracts greatly inhibited the growth of E. coli, S. typhimurium, and S. aureus (MIC against E. coli, i.e., 2.35 ± 0.8, 2.4 ± 0.2, and 2.46 ± 0.5, resp.). Elicitation decreased SOD enzyme activity whereas CAT enzyme activity increased remarkably under MnCl2 elicitation. MnCl2 10 mg/L and pectin 15 mg/L elicitation enhanced the DPPH radical inhibition ability, but ferric scavenging activity was comparable to the control. TQ and THY were quantified by LC-MS/MS in the cultures with high bioactive properties revealing maximum content under MnCl2 10 mg/L elicitation. Therefore, MnCl2 elicitation can be undertaken on large scale for sustainable metabolite production.

Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appazov, Artur

The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

Quantifying characteristics of information-technology applications based on expert knowledge for detection of oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows.

Science.gov (United States)

van Asseldonk, M A; Huirne, R B; Dijkhuizen, A A

1998-10-09

Expert opinions were elicited about the characteristics at the commercial-farm level of on-line information technology (IT) applications that are able to detect oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows. Since actual data of these characteristics are not available, judgmental data provided an alternative means to interpret the implications of research results for commercial farms. Applications included were activity measurement, milk-production measurement, electrical conductivity of quarter milk, automated concentrate feeders and milk-temperature measurement. Sensitivity and specificity of detection of oestrus (OD), clinical-mastitis (CMD) and subclinical-mastitis (SCMD) were ascertained. Conjoint-analysis was used to assess the effect of each application indirectly by decomposing the evaluated overall detection characteristics of a predefined number of IT combinations. The individual experts were consistent in evaluating the alternatives, but there was variation in estimates among experts. Estimations of the main effects of the applications and important first-order interactions were incorporated into the detection models. Implementation of all applications under study resulted in overall sensitivities and specificities of 82% and 90%, 73% and 87%, 58% and 82% for OD, CMD and SCMD, respectively. Further research is necessary that should take into account costs and benefits of the different detection systems based on the current status of farm performance (e.g. OD and mastitis incidence) and farm structure (e.g. farm size, years in operation of the milking parlour and parlour layout). Research to do this is currently in progress.

What monitor can replace the cathode-ray tube for visual stimulation to elicit multifocal electroretinograms?

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Celso Soiti; Shinoda, Kei; Matsumoto, Harue; Seki, Keisuke; Nagasaka, Eiichiro; Iwata, Takeshi; Mizota, Atsushi

2014-08-05

To compare a conventional cathode-ray tube (CRT) screen to organic light-emitting diode (OLED) and liquid crystal display (LCD) screens as visual stimulators to elicit multifocal electroretinograms (mfERGs), mfERGs were recorded from seven eyes of seven healthy volunteers (21 ± 2 years). The mfERGs elicited by a conventional CRT screen (S710, Compaq Computer Co.) were compared to those elicited by a studio-grade master OLED monitor (PVM-1741, Sony, Japan) and a conventional LCD (S1721, Flexscan, Eizo Nanao Corp., Japan). The luminance changes of each monitor were measured with a photodiode. CRT, OLED, and LCD screens with a frame frequency of 60 Hz were studied. A hexagonal stimulus array with 61 stimulus elements was created on each monitor. The serial white stimuli of the OLED screen at 60 Hz did not fuse, and that of the LCD screens fused. The amplitudes of P1 and P2 of the first-order kernels of the mfERGs were not significantly different from those elicited by the CRT and OLED screens, and the P1 amplitude of the first-order kernel elicited by the LCD stimuli was significantly smaller than that elicited by the CRT in all the groups of the averaged hexagonal elements. The implicit times were approximately 10 ms longer in almost all components elicited by the LCD screen compared to those elicited by the CRT screen. The mfERGs elicited by monitors other than the CRT should be carefully interpreted, especially those elicited by LCD screens. The OLED had good performance, and we conclude that it can replace the CRT as a stimulator for mfERGs; however, a collection of normative data is recommended. © 2014 ARVO.

Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggleton, S.H.

1986-01-01

Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

ALICE Expert System

CERN Document Server

Ionita, C

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

Expert system in PNC, 6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubota, Koji

1990-01-01

The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

The capsaicin cough reflex in eczema patients with respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elberling, Jesper; Dirksen, Asger; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

2006-01-01

Respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume are common in the population but have unclear pathophysiology. Increased capsaicin cough responsiveness has been associated with the symptoms, but it is unknown whether the site of the symptoms in the airways influences this association. The aim of this st......Respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume are common in the population but have unclear pathophysiology. Increased capsaicin cough responsiveness has been associated with the symptoms, but it is unknown whether the site of the symptoms in the airways influences this association. The aim...... of this study was to investigate the association between the site of airway symptoms elicited by perfume and cough responsiveness to bronchial challenge with capsaicin. 21 eczema patients with respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume were compared with 21 healthy volunteers in a sex- and age-matched case...... control study. The participants completed a symptom questionnaire and underwent a bronchial challenge with capsaicin. Lower, but not upper, respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume were associated with increased capsaicin cough responsiveness. Having severe symptoms to perfume (n=11) did not relate...

Computer-aided diagnosis based on enhancement of degraded fundus photographs.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Kai; Zhou, Mei; Wang, Shaoze; Lou, Lixia; Xu, Yufeng; Ye, Juan; Qian, Dahong

2018-05-01

Retinal imaging is an important and effective tool for detecting retinal diseases. However, degraded images caused by the aberrations of the eye can disguise lesions, so that a diseased eye can be mistakenly diagnosed as normal. In this work, we propose a new image enhancement method to improve the quality of degraded images. A new method is used to enhance degraded-quality fundus images. In this method, the image is converted from the input RGB colour space to LAB colour space and then each normalized component is enhanced using contrast-limited adaptive histogram equalization. Human visual system (HVS)-based fundus image quality assessment, combined with diagnosis by experts, is used to evaluate the enhancement. The study included 191 degraded-quality fundus photographs of 143 subjects with optic media opacity. Objective quality assessment of image enhancement (range: 0-1) indicated that our method improved colour retinal image quality from an average of 0.0773 (variance 0.0801) to an average of 0.3973 (variance 0.0756). Following enhancement, area under curves (AUC) were 0.996 for the glaucoma classifier, 0.989 for the diabetic retinopathy (DR) classifier, 0.975 for the age-related macular degeneration (AMD) classifier and 0.979 for the other retinal diseases classifier. The relatively simple method for enhancing degraded-quality fundus images achieves superior image enhancement, as demonstrated in a qualitative HVS-based image quality assessment. This retinal image enhancement may, therefore, be employed to assist ophthalmologists in more efficient screening of retinal diseases and the development of computer-aided diagnosis. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daud, A.H.

1996-01-01

This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

2010-01-01

-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

Expert system aids transport regulation users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

1990-01-01

During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

1991-12-01

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

An alternative approach for eliciting willingness-to-pay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura J. Damschroder

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Open-ended methods that elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP in terms of absolute dollars often result in high rates of questionable and highly skewed responses, insensitivity to changes in health state, and raise an ethical issue related to its association with personal income. We conducted a 2x2 randomized trial over the Internet to test 4 WTP formats: 1 WTP in dollars; 2 WTP as a percentage of financial resources; 3 WTP in terms of monthly payments; and 4 WTP as a single lump-sum amount. WTP as a percentage of financial resources generated fewer questionable values, had better distribution properties, greater sensitivity to severity of health states, and was not associated with income. WTP elicited on a monthly basis also showed promise.

Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

OpenAIRE

Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

2016-01-01

Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

2017-11-01

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

2002-01-01

When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Dahlman

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

2011-07-01

This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

Eliciting Spill: A methodological note

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alvita Nathaniel, Ph.D.

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Classic grounded theory is an inductive process that focuses on the experiences and perceptions of research participants (Glaser, 1978, 1998. Although grounded theorists may utilize other types of data, most are likely to gather information through qualitative interviews. The theorist seeks to understand what is going on as people resolve their main concern in a given substantive area. People know what is important to them and most want to tell their stories. They feel encouraged to talk when they recognize that their stories are valued. Once the informant realizes that he or she is being heard, the story flows. This is what Glaser refers to as “spill.” When this occurs, the theorist becomes a vessel to receive the story. As Glaser describes it, “The researcher will become a ‘big ear’ to pour into incessantly” (1998, p. 124. But, as easy as this seems, the researcher must overcome certain positivist tendencies to allow this to happen. Rather than asking a list of pre-planned questions, the grounded theorist will try to develop one question that will trigger the telling of a story. Eliciting spill requires a deliberate process that employs a deep understanding of the fundamentals of classic grounded theory. Derived from Glaser’s writings, the following are suggestions intended to help the novice grounded theorist to elicit spill.

Real-time elicitation of moral emotions using a prejudice paradigm.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melike Marethe Fourie

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Moral emotions are critically important in guiding appropriate social conduct. Empirical investigation of these emotions remains a challenge, however, because of the difficulty in eliciting them reliably in controlled settings. Here we describe a novel prejudice paradigm that aimed to elicit both negatively- and positively-valenced moral emotions in real-time. Low-prejudice females (N = 46 who met highly specific demographic and personality-based screening criteria completed a series of Implicit Association Tests (IATs. Feedback following these IATs was pre-programmed to either endorse participants’ nonprejudiced self-standards (positive condition, or to contradict their self-standards (negative condition, in response to sensitive social topics. Neutral condition IATs reflected participants’ attitudes toward non-sensitive social topics. Results demonstrated that the IATs were successful in eliciting moral-positive emotions (satisfaction and pride, and moral-negative emotions (primarily guilt. In addition, participants high in self-reported punishment sensitivity, as assessed by the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS scale, reported greater guilt.

Real-time elicitation of moral emotions using a prejudice paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Fourie, Melike M; Kilchenmann, Nadine; Malcolm-Smith, Susan; Thomas, Kevin G F

2012-01-01

Moral emotions are critically important in guiding appropriate social conduct. Empirical investigation of these emotions remains a challenge, however, because of the difficulty in eliciting them reliably in controlled settings. Here we describe a novel prejudice paradigm that aimed to elicit both negatively and positively valenced moral emotions in real-time. Low-prejudice females (N = 46) who met highly specific demographic and personality-based screening criteria completed a series of Implicit Association Tests (IATs). Feedback following these IATs was pre-programmed to either endorse participants' non-prejudiced self-standards (positive condition), or to contradict their self-standards (negative condition), in response to sensitive social topics. Neutral condition IATs reflected participants' attitudes toward non-sensitive social topics. Results demonstrated that the IATs were successful in eliciting moral-positive emotions (satisfaction and pride) and moral-negative emotions (primarily guilt). In addition, participants high in self-reported punishment sensitivity, as assessed by the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) scale, reported greater guilt.

Real-Time Elicitation of Moral Emotions Using a Prejudice Paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

Fourie, Melike M.; Kilchenmann, Nadine; Malcolm-Smith, Susan; Thomas, Kevin G. F. 

2012-01-01

Moral emotions are critically important in guiding appropriate social conduct. Empirical investigation of these emotions remains a challenge, however, because of the difficulty in eliciting them reliably in controlled settings. Here we describe a novel prejudice paradigm that aimed to elicit both negatively and positively valenced moral emotions in real-time. Low-prejudice females (N = 46) who met highly specific demographic and personality-based screening criteria completed a series of Implicit Association Tests (IATs). Feedback following these IATs was pre-programmed to either endorse participants’ non-prejudiced self-standards (positive condition), or to contradict their self-standards (negative condition), in response to sensitive social topics. Neutral condition IATs reflected participants’ attitudes toward non-sensitive social topics. Results demonstrated that the IATs were successful in eliciting moral-positive emotions (satisfaction and pride) and moral-negative emotions (primarily guilt). In addition, participants high in self-reported punishment sensitivity, as assessed by the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) scale, reported greater guilt. PMID:22888322

Expert systems in clinical practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud-Salis, J.L.

1987-01-01

The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

Expert Witness

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adele

formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1988-01-01

An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

Eliciting nicotine craving with virtual smoking cues.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamito, Pedro; Oliveira, Jorge; Baptista, André; Morais, Diogo; Lopes, Paulo; Rosa, Pedro; Santos, Nuno; Brito, Rodrigo

2014-08-01

Craving is a strong desire to consume that emerges in every case of substance addiction. Previous studies have shown that eliciting craving with an exposure cues protocol can be a useful option for the treatment of nicotine dependence. Thus, the main goal of this study was to develop a virtual platform in order to induce craving in smokers. Fifty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to two different virtual environments: high arousal contextual cues and low arousal contextual cues scenarios (17 smokers with low nicotine dependency were excluded). An eye-tracker system was used to evaluate attention toward these cues. Eye fixation on smoking-related cues differed between smokers and nonsmokers, indicating that smokers focused more often on smoking-related cues than nonsmokers. Self-reports of craving are in agreement with these results and suggest a significant increase in craving after exposure to smoking cues. In sum, these data support the use of virtual environments for eliciting craving.

Expert Systems in Reference Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

1989-01-01

Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

The capsaicin cough reflex in eczema patients with respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume.

Science.gov (United States)

Elberling, Jesper; Dirksen, Asger; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Mosbech, Holger

2006-03-01

Respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume are common in the population but have unclear pathophysiology. Increased capsaicin cough responsiveness has been associated with the symptoms, but it is unknown whether the site of the symptoms in the airways influences this association. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the site of airway symptoms elicited by perfume and cough responsiveness to bronchial challenge with capsaicin. 21 eczema patients with respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume were compared with 21 healthy volunteers in a sex- and age-matched case control study. The participants completed a symptom questionnaire and underwent a bronchial challenge with capsaicin. Lower, but not upper, respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume were associated with increased capsaicin cough responsiveness. Having severe symptoms to perfume (n=11) did not relate to the site of the symptoms in the airways and was not associated with increased capsaicin cough responsiveness. In conclusion, respiratory symptoms elicited by perfume may reflect local hyperreactivity related to defensive reflexes in the airways, and measurements of the capsaicin cough reflex are relevant when patients with lower respiratory symptoms related to environmental perfume exposures are investigated.

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

Setting priorities for non-regulatory animal health in Ireland: results from an expert Policy Delphi study and a farmer priority identification survey.

Science.gov (United States)

More, Simon J; McKenzie, Ken; O'Flaherty, Joe; Doherty, Michael L; Cromie, Andrew R; Magan, Mike J

2010-07-01

Agriculture is a very important contributor to the Irish economy. In Ireland, national animal health services have been a government, rather than an industry, responsibility. In 2009, Animal Health Ireland (AHI) was established to provide a partnership approach to national leadership of non-regulatory animal health issues (those not subject to national and/or EU regulation). The objectives of this study were to elicit opinion from experts and farmers about non-regulatory animal health issues facing Irish livestock industries, including prioritisation of animal health issues and identification of opportunities to maximise the effective use of AHI resources. The study was conducted with experts using Policy Delphi methodology over three rounds, and with farmers using a priority identification survey. Non-regulatory bovine diseases/conditions were prioritised by both experts and farmers based on impact and international competitiveness. For each high-priority disease/condition, experts were asked to provide an assessment based on cost, impact, international perception, impediment to international market access and current resource usage effectiveness. Further information was also sought from experts about resource allocation preferences, methods to improve education and coordination, and innovative measures to improve prevention and management. There was close agreement between responses from experts and dairy farmers: each gave highest priority to 3 diseases with a biosecurity risk (subsequently termed 'biosecure diseases') (bovine viral diarrhoea [BVD], infectious bovine rhinotracheitis [IBR], paratuberculosis) and 4 diseases/conditions generally without a biosecurity risk ('non-biosecure diseases/conditions') (fertility, udder health/milk quality, lameness, calf health). Beef farmers also prioritised parasitic conditions and weanling pneumonia. The adverse impact of biosecure diseases is currently considered relatively minor by experts, but would increase

ALICE Expert System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionita, C; Carena, F

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

Poor Agreement Among Expert Witnesses in Bile Duct Injury Malpractice Litigation An Expert Panel Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

Poor agreement among expert witnesses in bile duct injury malpractice litigation: an expert panel survey.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

1992-01-01

In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

Elicitation of preferences for improvements in ostomy pouches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonnichsen, Ole

This paper attempts to examine and measure ostomates’ preferences for improvements in ostomy pouches. Described are the study design, elicitation procedure and resulting preference structure of the Swedish ostomate sample. The method used to elicit the preferences is a Discrete Choice Experiment...... (DCE), where respondents are asked to choose between alternatives in choice sets. Each alternative is comprised of a number of attributes relating to the adhesive, filter and flexibility of ostomy pouches. The choice between alternatives made by the respondent implies an implicit trade-off between...... the attributes and allows for the estimation of individuals’ Willingness to Pay (WTP) for the attributes of ostomy pouches when cost is included as an attribute. The data consists of 254 ostomates responding to the survey. The respondents have positive WTP for all improvement attributes presented to them...

Degradable polyphosphazene/poly(alpha-hydroxyester) blends: degradation studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ambrosio, Archel M A; Allcock, Harry R; Katti, Dhirendra S; Laurencin, Cato T

2002-04-01

Biomaterials based on the polymers of lactic acid and glycolic acid and their copolymers are used or studied extensively as implantable devices for drug delivery, tissue engineering and other biomedical applications. Although these polymers have shown good biocompatibility, concerns have been raised regarding their acidic degradation products, which have important implications for long-term implantable systems. Therefore, we have designed a novel biodegradable polyphosphazene/poly(alpha-hydroxyester) blend whose degradation products are less acidic than those of the poly(alpha-hydroxyester) alone. In this study, the degradation characteristics of a blend of poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (50:50 PLAGA) and poly[(50% ethyl glycinato)(50% p-methylphenoxy) phosphazene] (PPHOS-EG50) were qualitatively and quantitatively determined with comparisons made to the parent polymers. Circular matrices (14mm diameter) of the PLAGA, PPHOS-EG50 and PLAGA-PPHOS-EG50 blend were degraded in non-buffered solutions (pH 7.4). The degraded polymers were characterized for percentage mass loss and molecular weight and the degradation medium was characterized for acid released in non-buffered solutions. The amounts of neutralizing base necessary to bring about neutral pH were measured for each polymer or polymer blend during degradation. The poly(phosphazene)/poly(lactide-co-glycolide) blend required significantly less neutralizing base in order to bring about neutral solution pH during the degradation period studied. The results indicated that the blend degraded at a rate intermediate to that of the parent polymers and that the degradation products of the polyphosphazene neutralized the acidic degradation products of PLAGA. Thus, results from these in vitro degradation studies suggest that the PLAGA-PPHOS-EG50 blend may provide a viable improvement to biomaterials based on acid-releasing organic polymers.

Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitter, Gary G.

1989-01-01

Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

Mind the Gaps: Expert and Non-Expert Differences in Conceptualising the Geological Subsurface.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, H.; Stewart, I. S.; Stokes, A.; Pahl, S.

2017-12-01

In communicating geoscience topics, emphasis is often given to approaches such as the use of narrative to make a message engaging and reducing the use of jargon to ensure that it is understood by as wide a group of people as possible. Whilst these are undeniably important techniques to promote effective communication, an aspect of geoscience communication that is often overlooked is the publics' conceptual frameworks about core geoscience concepts. The consideration of different conceptual frameworks fits with the need to ensure that the framing is appropriate for the message, but it extends beyond simple framing into more complicated issues of addressing and incorporating pre- and mis-conceptions in geoscience. In a study examining expert and non-expert cognitive (mental) models of the geological subsurface in south-west England, several gaps were found between the fundamental ways that experts and non-experts conceptualise this invisible realm. Of these, three gaps were considered to be particularly important and common to many participants: the use of spatial reasoning; the application of surface experiences to subsurface processes; and the connection between the surface and subsurface. This paper will examine the evidence for these three important conceptual gaps between specialists and non-specialists and will address how this type of cognitive study can help improve effective geoscience communication.

Belief Elicitation to Populate Health Economic Models of Medical Diagnostic Devices in Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haakma, Wieke; Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; Bojke, Laura; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

2014-01-01

Background and Objective Bayesian methods can be used to elicit experts’ beliefs about the clinical value of healthcare technologies. This study investigates a belief–elicitation method for estimating diagnostic performance in an early stage of development of photoacoustic mammography (PAM) imaging

In-vessel core degradation code validation matrix update 1996-1999. Report by an OECD/NEA group of experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-02-01

In 1991 the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) issued a State-of-the-Art Report (SOAR) on In-Vessel Core Degradation in Light Water Reactor (LWR) Severe Accidents. Based on the recommendations of this report a Validation Matrix for severe accident modelling codes was produced. Experiments performed up to the end of 1993 were considered for this validation matrix. To include recent experiments and to enlarge the scope, an update was formally inaugurated in January 1999 by the Task Group on Degraded Core Cooling, a sub-group of Principal Working Group 2 (PWG-2) on Coolant System Behaviour, and a selection of writing group members was commissioned. The present report documents the results of this study. The objective of the Validation Matrix is to define a basic set of experiments, for which comparison of the measured and calculated parameters forms a basis for establishing the accuracy of test predictions, covering the full range of in-vessel core degradation phenomena expected in light water reactor severe accident transients. The emphasis is on integral experiments, where interactions amongst key phenomena as well as the phenomena themselves are explored; however separate-effects experiments are also considered especially where these extend the parameter ranges to cover those expected in postulated LWR severe accident transients. As well as covering PWR and BWR designs of Western origin, the scope of the review has been extended to Eastern European (VVER) types. Similarly, the coverage of phenomena has been extended, starting as before from the initial heat-up but now proceeding through the in-core stage to include introduction of melt into the lower plenum and further to core coolability and retention to the lower plenum, with possible external cooling. Items of a purely thermal hydraulic nature involving no core degradation are excluded, having been covered in other validation matrix studies. Concerning fission product behaviour, the effect

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

Emotion Eliciting in Affective Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lai, Yoke Chin

2014-01-01

A successful product needs the designer’s conceptual model congruent with the user’s mental model. The fundamental affective design principle also applies to assistive product design. Eliciting effectively the user’s mental model has been a big challenge for most novice designers. This paper outl...... with 3D digital prototype as emotion stimulus. To form a closed loop reflective model, the emotion response from the user is assessed with an emotion assessment tool. Emotion ontology is established to form the backbone of the emotion assessment tool....

Expert systems and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

1984-01-01

There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

Paradigms and building tools for real-time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, U.; Flasinski, M.; Hagge, L.; Ohrenberg, K.

1994-01-01

An expert system is a software which can simulate the problem solving behavior of a human expert. The rule-based paradigm is chosen to describe the different aspects involved in expert system development. Differences between expert systems and common procedural or object-oriented programs are investigated. Expert system shells are introduced as a building tool for expert systems, together with some guidelines on the evaluation of such shells. A discussion of special needs for real-time expert system development concludes the paper

Eliciting illegal migration rates through list randomization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McKenzie, D.; Siegel, M.

2013-01-01

Most migration surveys do not ask about the legal status of migrants due to concerns about the sensitivity of this question. List randomization is a technique that has been used in a number of other social science applications to elicit sensitive information. We trial this technique by adding it to

Inhibition of autophagy overcomes the nanotoxicity elicited by cadmium-based quantum dots.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jiajun; Sun, Yun; Wang, Shaofei; Li, Yubin; Zeng, Xian; Cao, Zhonglian; Yang, Ping; Song, Ping; Wang, Ziyu; Xian, Zongshu; Gao, Hongjian; Chen, Qicheng; Cui, Daxiang; Ju, Dianwen

2016-02-01

Cadmium-based quantum dots (QDs) have shown their values in disease diagnosis, cellular and molecular tracking, small-animal imaging, and therapeutic drug delivery. However, the potential safety problems of QDs, mainly due to their nanotoxicities by unclear mechanisms, have greatly limited its applications. To reverse this situation, we investigated the underlying biological mechanisms of the toxicity of Quantum Dots CdTe/CdS 655 (QDs 655) in this work. QDs 655 was found to elicit nanotoxicity in vitro and in vivo. During the process, autophagy was activated, which was characterized by three main stages of autophagic flux including formation of autophagosomes, lysosomes fused with autophagosomes, and degradation of autophagosomes by lysosomes. Furthermore, the autophagic cell death was demonstrated in vitro under QDs 655 treatment while inhibition of autophagy by pharmacological inhibitors or genetic approaches could attenuate the toxicity induced by QDs 655 in vitro and in vivo. These results indicated that autophagic flux and autophagic cell death were triggered by QDs 655, which elucidated the critical role of autophagy in QDs 655 induced toxicity. Our data may suggest the approach to overcome the toxicity of QDs and other nanoparticles by autophagy inhibition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new method for eliciting three speaking styles in the laboratory

OpenAIRE

Harnsberger, James D.; Wright, Richard; Pisoni, David B.

2008-01-01

In this study, a method was developed to elicit three different speaking styles, reduced, citation, and hyperarticulated, using controlled sentence materials in a laboratory setting. In the first set of experiments, the reduced style was elicited by having twelve talkers read a sentence while carrying out a distractor task that involved recalling from short-term memory an individually-calibrated number of digits. The citation style corresponded to read speech in the laboratory. The hyperartic...

Assessment of degradation and aging of nuclear power plants concrete structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busby, J.; Naus, D.; Graves, H.; Sheikh, A.; Le Pape, Y.; Rashid, J.; Saouma, V.; Wall, J.

2015-01-01

This paper summarizes the results of an expert-panel assessment of ageing degradation modes and mechanisms of concrete structures in NPPs, where, based on specific operating environments, degradation is likely to occur, or may have occurred; to define relevant aging and degradation modes and mechanisms; and to perform systematic assessment of the effects of these age-related degradation mechanisms on the future life of those materials and structures. The following 7 degradation modes and mechanisms have been identified as having the greatest potential impact on the ability of concrete structures to fulfill their safety related functions during long-term NPP operation. 1) Corrosion of conventional reinforcement is difficult to assess because of inaccessibility to inspection; 2) Creep of pre-stressed concrete containments continuously affects the internal stress state and adds to tendon relaxation and gradual loss of prestress; 3) Irradiation of concrete lacks sufficient data to for a clear evaluation of its effects on long-term operations; 4) Alkali-silica reaction potential consequences on the structural integrity of the containment; 5) Fracture/cracking, which is a well understood behavior characteristic of concrete structures and is accounted for in structural design, plays a unique role in post-tensioned containments during de-tensioning and re-tensioning operations which may be undertaken as part of life extension retrofit work, resulting in delamination, and may evolve with time as a creep-cracking interaction mechanism; 6) Boric acid attack of concrete in the spent fuel pool involves knowledge gaps related to the kinetics and the extent of the attack (role of the concrete mix design); 7) Corrosion of the inaccessible side of the spent fuel pool and containment liners and the stress corrosion cracking of the tendons are important degradation modes due to the absence of in-service inspection. The potential impact of these mechanisms may be mitigated by

ART-Ada: An Ada-based expert system tool

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

1991-01-01

The Department of Defense mandate to standardize on Ada as the language for software systems development has resulted in increased interest in making expert systems technology readily available in Ada environments. NASA's Space Station Freedom is an example of the large Ada software development projects that will require expert systems in the 1990's. Another large scale application that can benefit from Ada based expert system tool technology is the Pilot's Associate (PA) expert system project for military combat aircraft. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) Ada, an Ada Expert system tool is described. ART-Ada allow applications of a C-based expert system tool called ART-IM to be deployed in various Ada environments. ART-Ada is being used to implement several prototype expert systems for NASA's Space Station Freedom Program and the U.S. Air Force.

Methodology toward second generation expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.

1989-01-01

So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Expert PLSQL Practices

CERN Document Server

Beresniewicz, John

2011-01-01

Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

Expert systems for superalloy studies

Science.gov (United States)

Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

1990-01-01

There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

Elicitation of andrographolide in the suspension cultures of Andrographis paniculata.

Science.gov (United States)

Gandi, Suryakala; Rao, Kiranmayee; Chodisetti, Bhuvaneswari; Giri, Archana

2012-12-01

Andrographis paniculata belonging to the family Acanthaceae produces a group of diterpene lactones, one of which is the pharmaceutically important-andrographolide. It is known to possess various important biological properties like anticancer, anti-HIV, anti-inflammatory, etc. This is the first report on the production of andrographolide in the cell suspension cultures of Andrographis paniculata by 'elicitation'. Elicitation was attempted to enhance the andrographolide content in the suspension cultures of Andrographis paniculata and also to ascertain its stimulation under stress conditions or in response to pathogen attack. The maximum andrographolide production was found to be 1.53 mg/g dry cell weight (DCW) at the end of stationary phase during the growth curve. The biotic elicitors (yeast, Escherichia coli, Bacillus subtilis, Agrobacterium rhizogenes 532 and Agrobacterium tumefaciens C 58) were more effective in eliciting the response when compared to the abiotic elicitors (CdCl(2), AgNO(3), CuCl(2) and HgCl(2)). Yeast has shown to stimulate maximum accumulation of 13.5 mg/g DCW andrographolide, which was found to be 8.82-fold higher than the untreated cultures.

Expert systems as decision tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, C.K.

1989-01-01

The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendelson, Danuta

2012-12-01

In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parcy, J.P.

1982-09-01

A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

Science.gov (United States)

André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

2008-02-01

In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... choose members for the qualified expert panel in accordance with selection criteria listed in paragraph... whether the proposed qualified expert panel meets the selection criteria prior to the panel beginning its... Committee Act, as amended, 5 U.S.C. App. (b) Criteria for the selection of a qualified expert panel. (1) A...

Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

Science.gov (United States)

Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

Measuring the Effectiveness of Gamesourcing Expert Oil Painting Annotations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky

2014-01-01

htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the

[Telemedicine correlation in retinopathy of prematurity between experts and non-expert observers].

Science.gov (United States)

Ossandón, D; Zanolli, M; López, J P; Stevenson, R; Agurto, R; Cartes, C

2015-01-01

To study the correlation between expert and non-expert observers in the reporting images for the diagnosis of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in a telemedicine setting. A cross-sectional, multicenter study, consisting of 25 sets of images of patients screened for ROP. They were evaluated by two experts in ROP and 1 non-expert and classified according to telemedicine classification, zone, stage, plus disease and Ells referral criteria. The telemedicine classification was: no ROP, mild ROP, type 2 ROP, or ROP that requires treatment. Ells referral criteria is defined as the presence at least one of the following: ROP in zone I, Stage 3 in zone I or II, or plus+ For statistical analysis, SPSS 16.0 was used. For correlation, Kappa value was performed. There was a high correlation between observers for the assessment of ROP stage (0.75; 0.54-0.88) plus disease (0.85; 0.71-0.92), and Ells criteria (0.89; 0.83-1.0). However, inter-observer values were low for zone (0.41; 0.27-0.54) and telemedicine classification (0.43; 0.33-0.6). When evaluating telemedicine images by examiners with different levels of expertise in ROP, the Ells criteria gave the best correlation. In addition, stage of disease and plus disease have good correlation among observers. In contrast, the correlation between observers was low for zone and telemedicine classification. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Expert system for liquid low-level waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.

1992-01-01

An expert system prototype has been developed to support system analysis activities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for waste management tasks. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. The concept under which the expert system has been designed is integration of knowledge. There are many sources of knowledge (data bases, text files, simulation programs, etc.) that an expert would regularly consult in order to solve a problem of liquid waste management. The expert would normally know how to extract the information from these different sources of knowledge. The general scope of this project would be to include as much pertinent information as possible within the boundaries of the expert system. As a result, the user, who may not be an expert in every aspect of liquid waste management, may be able to apply the content of the information to a specific waste problem. This paper gives the methodological steps to develop the expert system under this general framework

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eggermont, G

2000-07-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised.

Characterizing novice-expert differences in macrocognition: an exploratory study of cognitive work in the emergency department.

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Christiane C; Denmark, T Kent; Crandall, Beth; Grome, Anna; Pappas, James

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study are to elicit and document descriptions of emergency physician expertise, to characterize cognitive differences between novice and expert physicians, and to identify areas in which novices' skill and knowledge gaps are most pronounced. The nature of the differences between novices and experts needs to be explored to develop effective instructional modalities that accelerate the learning curve of inexperienced physicians who work in high-complexity environments. We interviewed novice emergency physicians (first-year residents) and attending physicians with significant expertise, working in an academic Level I trauma center in Southern California. With cognitive task analysis, we used task diagrams to capture nonroutine critical incidents that required the use of complex cognitive skills. Timelines were constructed to develop a detailed understanding of challenging incidents and the decisions involved as the incident unfolded, followed by progressive deepening to tease out situation-specific cues, knowledge, and information that experts and novices used. A thematic analysis of the interview transcripts was conducted to identify key categories. Using classification techniques for data reduction, we identified a smaller set of key themes, which composed the core findings of the study. Five interns and 6 attending physicians participated in the interviews. Novice physicians reported having difficulties representing the patient's story to attending physicians and other health care providers. Overrelying on objective data, novice physicians use linear thinking to move to diagnosis quickly and are likely to discount and explain away data that do not "fit" the frame. Experienced physicians draw on expertise to recognize cues and patterns while leaving room for altering or even changing their initial diagnosis. Whereas experts maintain high levels of spatial, temporal, and organizational systems awareness when overseeing treatment modalities of

Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheroghe Popescu

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

Stone Soup: Photo-Elicitation as a Learning Tool in the Food Geography Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, Hilda E.; Wood, Jason

2014-01-01

This paper showcases self-reflective and inclusive pedagogy using photo-elicitation in a food geography course assignment. The Stone Soup project positions students as both researchers and participant-subjects in a participant-driven photo-elicitation (PDPE) study of students' foodways. Student papers for this assignment demonstrate rich…

Identifying and Responding to Personal Stressors: Utilizing Photo Elicitation in Health Education Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Theresa

2014-01-01

The "Photo Elicitation Project" teaching idea applies the techniques of photo elicitation to stress prevention and management. This activity is designed to help students identify their personal stressors and to determine which stress prevention strategies are most useful for them. Objectives: students will be able to (a) identify current…

Expert Cold Structure Development

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

2011-05-01

The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

Conditioned craving cues elicit an automatic approach tendency

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Gucht, D.; Vansteenwegen, D.; Van den Bergh, O.; Beckers, T.

2008-01-01

In two experiments, we used a Pavlovian differential conditioning procedure to induce craving for chocolate. As a result of repeated pairing with chocolate intake, initially neutral cues came to elicit an automatic approach tendency in a speeded stimulus-response compatibility reaction time task.

Waste disposal experts meet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1959-01-15

Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

2003-01-01

Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual

Classification of health webpages as expert and non expert with a reduced set of cross-language features.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabar, Natalia; Krivine, Sonia; Jaulent, Marie-Christine

2007-10-11

Making the distinction between expert and non expert health documents can help users to select the information which is more suitable for them, according to whether they are familiar or not with medical terminology. This issue is particularly important for the information retrieval area. In our work we address this purpose through stylistic corpus analysis and the application of machine learning algorithms. Our hypothesis is that this distinction can be performed on the basis of a small number of features and that such features can be language and domain independent. The used features were acquired in source corpus (Russian language, diabetes topic) and then tested on target (French language, pneumology topic) and source corpora. These cross-language features show 90% precision and 93% recall with non expert documents in source language; and 85% precision and 74% recall with expert documents in target language.

Requirements Elicitation in a Telemedicine Pain-treatment Trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Sandsjö, L.; Schaake, L.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Jones, Valerie M.; Hermens, Hermanus J.; Ryan, K.; Robinson, W.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the early phase requirements elicitation for a work-related neck-shoulder pain teletreatment trial and the assessment of those requirements in respect of their importance to the trial and the feasibility of the needed software adaptations of the telemedicine system within the

Eliciting and Applying Local Research Knowledge for Peacebuilding ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

gs

Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) are pleased to announce a jointly-funded research initiative Eliciting and Applying Local Research. Knowledge for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding. The research initiative seeks to increase the level of recognition and ...

Ethics, Risk and Benefits Associated with Different Applications of Nanotechnology: a Comparison of Expert and Consumer Perceptions of Drivers of Societal Acceptance.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, N; Fischer, A R H; Frewer, L J

Examining those risk and benefit perceptions utilised in the formation of attitudes and opinions about emerging technologies such as nanotechnology can be useful for both industry and policy makers involved in their development, implementation and regulation. A broad range of different socio-psychological and affective factors may influence consumer responses to different applications of nanotechnology, including ethical concerns. A useful approach to identifying relevant consumer concerns and innovation priorities is to develop predictive constructs which can be used to differentiate applications of nanotechnology in a way which is meaningful to consumers. This requires elicitation of attitudinal constructs from consumers, rather than measuring attitudes assumed to be important by the researcher. Psychological factors influencing societal responses to 15 applications of nanotechnology drawn from different application areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, food, military, sports, and cosmetics) were identified using repertory grid method in conjunction with generalised Procrustes analysis. The results suggested that people differentiate nanotechnology applications based on the extent to which they perceive them to be beneficial, useful, necessary and important. The benefits may be offset by perceived risks focusing on fear and ethical concerns. Compared to an earlier expert study on societal acceptance of nanotechnology, consumers emphasised ethical issues compared to experts but had less concern regarding potential physical contact with the product and time to market introduction. Consumers envisaged fewer issues with several applications compared to experts, in particular food applications.

Liquid low level waste management expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

1991-01-01

An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

Comparison of two multi-criteria decision techniques for eliciting treatment preferences in people with neurological disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Ijzerman, Maarten J; van Til, Janine A; Snoek, Govert J

2008-12-01

To present and compare two multi-criteria decision techniques (analytic hierarchy process [AHP] and conjoint analysis [CA]) for eliciting preferences in patients with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) who are eligible for surgical augmentation of hand function, either with or without implantation of a neuroprosthesis. The methods were compared in respect to attribute weights, overall preference, and practical experiences. Two previously designed and administered multi-criteria decision surveys in patients with SCI were compared and further analysed. Attributes and their weights in the AHP experiment were determined by an expert panel, followed by determination of the weights in the patient group. Attributes for the CA were selected and validated using an expert panel, piloted in six patients with SCI and subsequently administered to the same group of patients as participated in the AHP experiment. Both experiments showed the importance of non-outcome-related factors such as inpatient stay and number of surgical procedures. In particular, patients were less concerned with clinical outcomes in actual decision making. Overall preference in both the AHP and CA was in favor of tendon reconstruction (0.6 vs 0.4 for neuroprosthetic implantation). Both methods were easy to apply, but AHP was less easily explained and understood. Both the AHP and CA methods produced similar outcomes, which may have been caused by the obvious preferences of patients. CA may be preferred because of the holistic approach of considering all treatment attributes simultaneously and, hence, its power in simulating real market decisions. On the other hand, the AHP method is preferred as a hands-on, easy-to-implement task with immediate feedback to the respondent. This flexibility allows AHP to be used in shared decision making. However, the way the technique is composed results in many inconsistencies. Patients preferred CA but complained about the number of choice tasks.

The recourse to experts. Political reasons and uses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumoulin, L.; La Branche, St.; Robert, C.; Warin, Ph.

2005-01-01

The need of reliable knowledge is necessary to draw adequate public policies. The role of experts is more and more important in any field, the expert brings his own specialized knowledge to the political world, he can define looming threads, can predict catastrophes, can highlight the long-term responsibility of particular choices but he can also contribute to the drawing of adequate solutions. The limit of expert's power lays in his ability to make a synthesis of plural knowledge. This book presents the role and weight of experts in our society from justice to economics via natural risks. A lot of examples of public policies based on expert valuation is given, in particular the recourse to experts of the European Union when it was to deal with the upgrading of nuclear safety standard in eastern countries. (A.C.)

Expert system characteristics and potential applications in safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, L.D.

1986-01-01

The general growth of expert, knowledge-based (KB) or rule based systems will significantly increase in the next three to five years. Improvements in computer hardware (speed, reduced size, power) and software (rule based, data based, user interfaces) in recent years are providing the foundations for the growth of expert systems. A byproduct of this growth will undoubtedly be the application of expert systems to various safeguards problems. Characteristics of these expert systems will involve 1) multiple rules governing an outcome, 2) confidence factors on individual variables and rule sets, 3) priority, cost, and risk based rule sets, and 4) the reasoning behind the advice or decision given by the expert system. This paper presents characteristics, structures, and examples of simple rule based systems. Potential application areas for these expert systems may include training, operations, management, designs, evaluations, and specific hardware operation

A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høffding, Simon

This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

EPRI expert system activities for nuclear utility industry application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, J.A.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on expert systems which have reached a level of maturity where they offer considerable benefits for the nuclear utility industry. The ability of expert systems to enhance expertise makes them an important tool for the nuclear utility industry in the areas of engineering, operations and maintenance. Benefits of expert system applications include comprehensive and consistent reasoning, reduction of time required for activities, retention of human expertise and ability to utilize multiple experts knowledge for an activity. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has been performing four basic activities to help the nuclear industry take advantage of this expert system technology. The first is the development of expert system building tools which are tailored to nuclear utility industry applications. The second is the development of expert system applications. The third is work in developing a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems. The last is technology transfer activities to help the nuclear utility industry benefit from expert systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe the EPRI activities

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

2016-04-01

Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Induction of phenolic compounds in Hypericum perforatum L. cells by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Conceição, Luis F R; Ferreres, Federico; Tavares, Rui M; Dias, Alberto C P

2006-01-01

Changes in phenolic metabolism after elicitation with Colletotrichum gloeosporioides (CG) has been studied in Hypericum perforatum L. (HP) cell suspension cultures. Soluble phenolics were analysed by HPLC-DAD and HPLC-DAD-MS/MS. HP cultures elicited with the CG elicitor showed a significant increase in xanthone accumulation. Xanthone accumulation increased twelve fold when the cells were primed with methyl-jasmonate (MeJ) or salicylic acid (SA), before elicitation. HP cultures exposed only to MeJ produced a set of flavonoids, the flavones which represent a substantial part (approx. 40%) of the total flavonoids accumulated in these cells. The possible importance of xanthones as a component of defence mechanism of HP against biotic stress is discussed.

Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Illovsky, Michael E.

1994-01-01

Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

Medical Physics expert and competence in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vano, E.; Lamn, I. N.; Guerra, A. del; Van Kleffens, H. J.

2003-01-01

The Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM on health protection of individuals against the dangers of ionizing radiation in relation to medical exposure, defines the Medical Physical Expert as an expert in radiation physics or radiation technology applied to exposure, within the scope of the Directive, whose training and competence to act is recognized by the competent authorities; and who, as appropriate, acts or gives advice on patient dosimetry, on the development and use of complex techniques and equipment, on optimization, on quality assurance, including quality control, and on other matters relating to radiation protection, concerning exposure within the scope of this Directive. As a consequence, it might be implied that his competence in radiation protection should also cover the staff and the public. In fact, the training programmes of medical physics experts include all the aspects concerning these topics. Some confusion could arise in the medical area when the Qualified Expert defined in the Council Directive 96/29/Euratom laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionizing radiation is considered. The Qualified Expert is defined as a person having the knowledge and training needed to carry out physical, technical or radiochemical tests enabling doses to be assessed, and to give advice in order to ensure effective protection of individuals and the correct operation of protective equipment, whose capacity to act a qualified expert is recognized by the competent authorities. A qualified expert may be assigned the technical responsibility for the tasks of radiation protection of workers and members of the public. In Europe, the Qualified Expert is acting at present in the Medical Area in countries where there are not enough Medical Physics Experts or in countries where this role was established before the publication of the Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM. Now, the coherent

Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

1992-01-01

The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

Comparison of elicitation potential of chloroatranol and atranol - 2 allergens in oak moss absolute

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, J.D.; Bernard, G.; Gimenez-Arnau, E.

2006-01-01

of chloroatranol relative to atranol based on testing with equimolar concentrations was 217% (95% confidence interval 116-409%). Both substances elicited reactions at very low levels of exposure. It is concluded that the differences in elicitation capacity between the 2 substances are counterbalanced by exposure...

Eliciting Help Without Pity: The Effect of Changing Media Images on Perceptions of Disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamenetsky, Stuart B; Dimakos, Christina; Aslemand, Asal; Saleh, Amani; Ali-Mohammed, Saamiyah

2016-01-01

This study investigated whether newer, more positive disability charity images can elicit helping behavior without producing pity. One hundred sixty-one university undergraduate students were presented with 35 older (1960-1990) and newer (1991-2010) disability charity images and completed a questionnaire about each image. Results indicate that overall, identification with depicted individuals was low; positive attitudes and perceptions of capabilities were moderate to high. Newer images led to more positive responses, but no significant difference in willingness to help. Eliciting pity through negative depictions of disability appears not to be a necessary precondition for eliciting helping behavior toward people with disabilities.

Using process elicitation and validation to understand and improve chemotherapy ordering and delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Wilson C; Christov, Stefan C; Avrunin, George S; Clarke, Lori A; Osterweil, Leon J; Cassells, Lucinda J; Marquard, Jenna L

2012-11-01

Chemotherapy ordering and administration, in which errors have potentially severe consequences, was quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated by employing process formalism (or formal process definition), a technique derived from software engineering, to elicit and rigorously describe the process, after which validation techniques were applied to confirm the accuracy of the described process. The chemotherapy ordering and administration process, including exceptional situations and individuals' recognition of and responses to those situations, was elicited through informal, unstructured interviews with members of an interdisciplinary team. The process description (or process definition), written in a notation developed for software quality assessment purposes, guided process validation (which consisted of direct observations and semistructured interviews to confirm the elicited details for the treatment plan portion of the process). The overall process definition yielded 467 steps; 207 steps (44%) were dedicated to handling 59 exceptional situations. Validation yielded 82 unique process events (35 new expected but not yet described steps, 16 new exceptional situations, and 31 new steps in response to exceptional situations). Process participants actively altered the process as ambiguities and conflicts were discovered by the elicitation and validation components of the study. Chemotherapy error rates declined significantly during and after the project, which was conducted from October 2007 through August 2008. Each elicitation method and the subsequent validation discussions contributed uniquely to understanding the chemotherapy treatment plan review process, supporting rapid adoption of changes, improved communication regarding the process, and ensuing error reduction.

Safety Tips from the Expert Witness.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Gary R.

1995-01-01

Many physical educators and coaches use the potential for liability to guide their decisions about conducting activities. By understanding expert witnesses' roles in negligence actions, surer planning, teaching, and coaching are possible. The paper describes issues that expert witnesses examine in negligence actions against physical educators,…

Eliciting and Defining Requirements Based on Metaevaluation: the Case of the CRAS 2008 Census

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edilson Ferneda

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The Brazilian Ministry of Social Development and Fight against Hunger (MDS regularly promotes the evaluation of its social programs, such as those developed in the Reference Centers for Social Assistance (CRAS. Such evaluations make use of a web system that supports the collection and processing of information as well as the dissemination of its results to local, regional and central government officials through the so-called CRAS Census. A meta-evaluation of the CRAS 2008 Census was carried out based on criteria specified by the Joint Committee (1994, from which we elicited requirements that enabled improvements of the web system. The article reports new requirements elicited from the meta-evaluation of the CRAS 2008 Census, held in the period 2009-2010. The approach of meta-evaluation as an alternative source of requirements elicitation took into consideration results from evaluations of social programs in order to identify system problems without the usual need of intense interaction with users. This approach revealed opportunities for improvements in the evaluation process that led to the elicitation of requirements for the computerized system. Some of the elicited features were incorporated into the Census 2010 and others may be incorporated in future censuses.

Neuronal Activation in the Medulla Oblongata during Selective Elicitation of the Laryngeal Adductor Response

Science.gov (United States)

Ambalavanar, Ranjinidevi; Tanaka, Yasumasa; Selbie, W. Scott; Ludlow, Christy L.

2008-01-01

Swallow and cough are complex motor patterns elicited by rapid and intense electrical stimulation of the internal branch of the superior laryngeal nerve (ISLN). The laryngeal adductor response (LAR) includes only a laryngeal response, is elicited by single stimuli to the ISLN, and is thought to represent the brain stem pathway involved in laryngospasm. To identify which regions in the medulla are activated during elicitation of the LAR alone, single electrical stimuli were presented once every 2 s to the ISLN. Two groups of 5 cats each were studied; an experimental group with unilateral ISLN stimulation at 0.5 Hz and a surgical control group. Three additional cats were studied to evaluate whether other oral, pharyngeal or respiratory muscles were activated during ISLN stimulation eliciting LAR. We quantified up to 22 sections for each of 14 structures in the medulla to determine if regions had increased Fos-like immunoreactive neurons in the experimental group. Significant increases (p medulla. PMID:15212423

Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Blanco, M.; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, A. K.; Normann, H.-T.

2010-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 4 (2010), s. 412-438 ISSN 1386-4157 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : belief elicitation * hedging * experimental methodology Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.868, year: 2010

Influence of Professional Affiliation on Expert's View on Welfare Measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dam Otten, Nina; Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn

2017-01-01

are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different...... between expert groups among swine experts. Inter-expert differences were more pronounced for both species. The results highlight the challenges of using expert weightings in aggregated welfare assessment models, as the choice of expert affiliation may play a confounding role in the final aggregation due...

Expert tool use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

2017-01-01

on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

Information Retrieval Diary of an Expert Technical Translator.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremmins, Edward T.

1984-01-01

Recommends use of entries from the information retrieval diary of Ted Crump, expert technical translator at the National Institute of Health, in the construction of computer models showing how expert translators solve problems of ambiguity in language. Expert and inexpert translation systems, eponyms, abbreviations, and alphabetic solutions are…

Memory-based pre-attentive auditory N1 elicited by sound movement.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohoyama, Keiko; Motomura, Eishi; Inui, Koji; Nishihara, Makoto; Otsuru, Naofumi; Oi, Motoyasu; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Okada, Motohiro

2012-07-01

Quickly detecting changes in the surrounding environment is one of the most important functions of sensory processing. Comparison of a new event with preceding sensory conditions is necessary for the change-detection process. A sudden change in a continuous sound elicits auditory evoked potentials that peak approximately 100 ms after the onset of the change (Change-N1). In the present study, we recorded Change-N1 under an oddball paradigm in 19 healthy subjects using an abruptly moving sound (SM-stimulus) as a deviant stimulus and investigated effects of the probability of the SM-stimulus to reveal whether Change-N1 is a memory-based response. We compared the amplitude and latency of Change-N1 elicited by the SM-stimulus among three probability conditions (33, 50 and 100%). As the probability of the SM-stimulus decreased, the amplitude of Change-N1 increased and its latency decreased. The present results indicate that the preceding sensory history affects Change-N1 elicited by the SM-stimulus. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic immunogenicity of rapidly-degradable polymers evolves during degradation.

Science.gov (United States)

Andorko, James I; Hess, Krystina L; Pineault, Kevin G; Jewell, Christopher M

2016-03-01

Recent studies reveal many biomaterial vaccine carriers are able to activate immunostimulatory pathways, even in the absence of other immune signals. How the changing properties of polymers during biodegradation impact this intrinsic immunogenicity is not well studied, yet this information could contribute to rational design of degradable vaccine carriers that help direct immune response. We use degradable poly(beta-amino esters) (PBAEs) to explore intrinsic immunogenicity as a function of the degree of polymer degradation and polymer form (e.g., soluble, particles). PBAE particles condensed by electrostatic interaction to mimic a common vaccine approach strongly activate dendritic cells, drive antigen presentation, and enhance T cell proliferation in the presence of antigen. Polymer molecular weight strongly influences these effects, with maximum stimulation at short degradation times--corresponding to high molecular weight--and waning levels as degradation continues. In contrast, free polymer is immunologically inert. In mice, PBAE particles increase the numbers and activation state of cells in lymph nodes. Mechanistic studies reveal that this evolving immunogenicity occurs as the physicochemical properties and concentration of particles change during polymer degradation. This work confirms the immunological profile of degradable, synthetic polymers can evolve over time and creates an opportunity to leverage this feature in new vaccines. Degradable polymers are increasingly important in vaccination, but how the inherent immunogenicity of polymers changes during degradation is poorly understood. Using common rapidly-degradable vaccine carriers, we show that the activation of immune cells--even in the absence of other adjuvants--depends on polymer form (e.g., free, particulate) and the extent of degradation. These changing characteristics alter the physicochemical properties (e.g., charge, size, molecular weight) of polymer particles, driving changes in

Action potential bursts in central snail neurons elicited by paeonol: roles of ionic currents

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-hung; Lin, Pei-lin; Hsu, Hui-yu; Wu, Ya-ting; Yang, Han-yin; Lu, Dah-yuu; Huang, Shiang-suo; Hsieh, Ching-liang; Lin, Jaung-geng

2010-01-01

Aim: To investigate the effects of 2′-hydroxy-4′-methoxyacetophenone (paeonol) on the electrophysiological behavior of a central neuron (right parietal 4; RP4) of the giant African snail (Achatina fulica Ferussac). Methods: Intracellular recordings and the two-electrode voltage clamp method were used to study the effects of paeonol on the RP4 neuron. Results: The RP4 neuron generated spontaneous action potentials. Bath application of paeonol at a concentration of ≥500 μmol/L reversibly elicited action potential bursts in a concentration-dependent manner. Immersing the neurons in Co2+-substituted Ca2+-free solution did not block paeonol-elicited bursting. Pretreatment with the protein kinase A (PKA) inhibitor KT-5720 or the protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor Ro 31-8220 did not affect the action potential bursts. Voltage-clamp studies revealed that paeonol at a concentration of 500 μmol/L had no remarkable effects on the total inward currents, whereas paeonol decreased the delayed rectifying K+ current (IKD) and the fast-inactivating K+ current (IA). Application of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP 5 mmol/L), an inhibitor of IA, or charybdotoxin 250 nmol/L, an inhibitor of the Ca2+-activated K+ current (IK(Ca)), failed to elicit action potential bursts, whereas tetraethylammonium chloride (TEA 50 mmol/L), an IKD blocker, successfully elicited action potential bursts. At a lower concentration of 5 mmol/L, TEA facilitated the induction of action potential bursts elicited by paeonol. Conclusion: Paeonol elicited a bursting firing pattern of action potentials in the RP4 neuron and this activity relates closely to the inhibitory effects of paeonol on the IKD. PMID:21042287

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume III, evaluation of the prototype expert system TRANZ.

Science.gov (United States)

1990-01-01

The validation and evaluation of an expert system for traffic control in highway work zones (TRANZ) is described. The stages in the evaluation process consisted of the following: revisit the experts, selectively distribute copies of TRANZ with docume...

Conditioned responses elicited by experimentally produced cues for smoking.

Science.gov (United States)

Mucha, R F; Pauli, P; Angrilli, A

1998-03-01

Several theories of drug-craving postulate that a signal for drug elicits conditioned responses. However, depending on the theory, a drug cue is said to elicit drug similar, drug compensatory, positive motivational, and negative motivational effects. Since animal data alone cannot tease apart the relative importance of different cue-related processes in the addict, we developed and examined a model of drug cues in the human based on a two-sound, differential conditioning procedure using smoking as the reinforcer. After multiple pairings of a sound with smoking, there was a preference for the smoking cue on a conditioned preference test. The acute effects of smoking (increased heart rate, respiration rate, skin conductance level, skin conductance fluctuations, EEG beta power and trapezius EMG, decreased alpha power) were not affected by the smoking cue, although subjects drew more on their cigarette in the presence of the smoking cue than in the presence of a control cue. Moreover, the cue did not change baseline behaviour except for a possible increase in EEG beta power and an increase in trapezius EMG at about the time when smoking should have occurred. The findings confirm the value of experimental models of drug cues in the human for comparing different cue phenomena in the dependent individual. They indicate that an acquired signal for drug in the human may elicit incentive motivational effects and associated preparatory motor responses in addition to possible conditioned tolerance.

A brief history and technical review of the expert system research

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Haocheng

2017-09-01

The expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert, which aims to solve complex problems by reasoning knowledge. It is an important branch of artificial intelligence. In this paper, firstly, we briefly introduce the development and basic structure of the expert system. Then, from the perspective of the enabling technology, we classify the current expert systems and elaborate four expert systems: The Rule-Based Expert System, the Framework-Based Expert System, the Fuzzy Logic-Based Expert System and the Expert System Based on Neural Network.

Stimulus-Elicited Connectivity Influences Resting-State Connectivity Years Later in Human Development: A Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabard-Durnam, Laurel Joy; Gee, Dylan Grace; Goff, Bonnie; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva; Humphreys, Kathryn Leigh; Lumian, Daniel Stephen; Fareri, Dominic Stephen; Caldera, Christina; Tottenham, Nim

2016-04-27

Although the functional architecture of the brain is indexed by resting-state connectivity networks, little is currently known about the mechanisms through which these networks assemble into stable mature patterns. The current study posits and tests the long-term phasic molding hypothesis that resting-state networks are gradually shaped by recurring stimulus-elicited connectivity across development by examining how both stimulus-elicited and resting-state functional connections of the human brain emerge over development at the systems level. Using a sequential design following 4- to 18-year-olds over a 2 year period, we examined the predictive associations between stimulus-elicited and resting-state connectivity in amygdala-cortical circuitry as an exemplar case (given this network's protracted development across these ages). Age-related changes in amygdala functional connectivity converged on the same regions of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and inferior frontal gyrus when elicited by emotional stimuli and when measured at rest. Consistent with the long-term phasic molding hypothesis, prospective analyses for both connections showed that the magnitude of an individual's stimulus-elicited connectivity unidirectionally predicted resting-state functional connectivity 2 years later. For the amygdala-mPFC connection, only stimulus-elicited connectivity during childhood and the transition to adolescence shaped future resting-state connectivity, consistent with a sensitive period ending with adolescence for the amygdala-mPFC circuit. Together, these findings suggest that resting-state functional architecture may arise from phasic patterns of functional connectivity elicited by environmental stimuli over the course of development on the order of years. A fundamental issue in understanding the ontogeny of brain function is how resting-state (intrinsic) functional networks emerge and relate to stimulus-elicited functional connectivity. Here, we posit and test the long

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

OpenAIRE

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

System and method for creating expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Peter M. (Inventor); Luczak, Edward C. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

Role of local neurons in cerebrocortical vasodilation elicited from cerebellum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iadecola, C.; Arneric, S.P.; Baker, H.D.; Tucker, L.W.; Reis, D.J.

1987-01-01

The vasodilation elicited in cerebral cortex by stimulation of the cerebellar fastigial nucleus (FN) is mediated by input pathways coming from the basal forebrain. The authors studied whether these pathways mediate the cortical vasodilation via a direct action on local blood vessels or via interposed local neurons. Neurons were destroyed in the primary sensory cortex by local microinjection of the excitotoxin ibotenic acid (IBO). Five days later rats were anesthetized, paralyzed, and ventilated. Arterial pressure and blood gases were controlled, and FN was stimulated electrically. Local cerebral blood flow (LCBF) was measured using the [ 14 C]iodoantipyrine technique with autoradiography. Five days after IBO, neurons were destroyed in a restricted cortical area, and afferent fibers and terminals were preserved. The selectivity of the neuronal loss was established by histological and biochemical criteria and by transport of horseradish, peroxidase from or into the lesion. Within the lesion, resting LCBF was unaffected, but the increase in LCBF evoked from the FN was abolished. In contrast the vasodilation elicited by hypercapnia was preserved. In the rest of the brain the vasodilation elicited from FN was largely unaffected. The authors conclude that the vasodilation evoked from FN in cerebral cortex depends on the integrity of a restricted population of local neurons that interact with the local microvasculature

Expert systems for plant operations training and assistance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pack, R.W.; Lazar, P.M.; Schmidt, R.V.; Gaddy, C.D.

1988-01-01

The project described in this paper explored the use of expert systems for plant operations training and assistance. Three computer technologies were reviewed: computer-aided instruction, expert systems, and expert training systems (ETS). The technology of CAI has been developed since the early 1960s, and a wide range of applications are available commercially today. Expert systems have been developed primarily as job performance aids, and the number of commercial applications is increasing. A fully developed ETS has models of the trainer and trainee, in addition to a knowledge base

Handbook of VLSI chip design and expert systems

CERN Document Server

Schwarz, A F

1993-01-01

Handbook of VLSI Chip Design and Expert Systems provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of expert systems, which provides a knowledge-based approach to problem solving. This book discusses the use of expert systems in every possible subtask of VLSI chip design as well as in the interrelations between the subtasks.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of design automation, which can be identified as Computer-Aided Design of Circuits and Systems (CADCAS). This text then presents the progress in artificial intelligence, with emphasis on expert systems.

Distributed and Collaborative Requirements Elicitation Based on Social Intelligence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wen, Bin; Luo, Z.; Liang, P.

2012-01-01

Requirements is the formal expression of user's needs. Also, requirements elicitation is the process of activity focusing on requirements collection. Traditional acquisition methods, such as interview, observation and prototype, are unsuited for the service-oriented software development featuring in

The potential for using visual elicitation in understanding preschool ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We explore the use of video and photo elicitation in a research study undertaken to ... system, in the District Centres for Early Childhood Education (DICECE), in Kenya. In this paper ..... photographs and even direct to a hand-held computer”.

Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-02-01

One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

Stochastic simulation of pitting degradation of multi-barrier waste container in the potential repository at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, J.H.; Atkins, J.E.; Andrews, R.W.

1995-01-01

A detailed stochastic waste package degradation simulation model was developed incorporating the humid-air and aqueous general and pitting corrosion models for the carbon steel corrosion-allowance outer barrier and aqueous pitting corrosion model for the Alloy 825 corrosion-resistant inner barrier. The uncertainties in the individual corrosion models were also incorporated to capture the variability in the corrosion degradation among waste packages and among pits in the same waste package. Within the scope of assumptions employed in the simulations, the corrosion modes considered, and the near-field conditions from the drift-scale thermohydrologic model, the results of the waste package performance analyses show that the current waste package design appears to meet the 'controlled design assumption' requirement of waste package performance, which is currently defined as having less than 1% of waste packages breached at 1,000 years. It was shown that, except for the waste packages that fail early, pitting corrosion of the corrosion-resistant inner barrier has a greater control on the failure of waste packages and their subsequent degradation than the outer barrier. Further improvement and substantiation of the inner barrier pitting model (currently based on an elicitation) is necessary in future waste package performance simulation model

Engaging Young Children in Research through Photo Elicitation

Science.gov (United States)

Pyle, Angela

2013-01-01

Embracing the new sociology of childhood, this paper describes a participatory research method built on a belief in the competency of young children. The paper begins with a critical review of the photo elicitation literature exploring the varied levels of children's participation. Drawing on the strengths of the previous research, a multi-step…

N400 elicited by incongruent ending words of Chinese idioms in healthy adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing-shi; Tang, Yun-xiang; Xiao, Ze-ping; Wang, Ji-jun; Zhang, Ming-dao; Zhang, Zai-fu; Hu, Zhen-yu; Lou, Fei-ying; Chen, Chong; Zhang, Tian-hong

2010-03-20

Prior research about N400 has been mainly based on English stimuli, while the cognitive processing of Chinese characters is still unclear. The aim of the present study was to further investigate the semantic processing of Chinese idioms. Event related potentials (ERP) component N400 was elicited by 38 pairs of matching (congruent) and mismatching (incongruent) ended Chinese idioms: ending words with same phoneme but different shape and meaning (sPdSdM), with similar shape but different phoneme and meaning (sSdPdM), with same meaning but different phoneme and shape (sMdPdS), and words with different phoneme, shape and meaning (dPdSdM) and recorded by Guangzhou Runjie WJ-1 ERP instruments. In 62 right-handed healthy adults (age 19 - 50 years), N400 amplitudes and latencies were compared between matching and mismatching conditions at Fz, Cz and Pz. N400 showed a midline distribution and could be elicited in electrodes Fz, Cz and Pz. The mean values of N400 latencies and amplitudes were obtained for matching and mismatching ending words in healthy adults. Significant differences were found in N400 latencies and amplitudes in matching and mismatching ending-words idioms in healthy adults (P idioms, N400 latencies were prolonged and the amplitudes were increased in mismatching ones. N400s elicited by different types of stimuli showed different latencies and amplitudes, and longest N400 latency and largest N400 amplitude were elicited by ending-words with dPdSdM. No gender difference was found of N400 latency and amplitude in this study (P > 0.05). Compared with English stimuli, Chinese ideographic words could provide more flexible stimuli for N400 research in that the words have 3-dimension changes - phoneme, shape and meaning. Features of N400 elicited by matching and mismatching ending words in Chinese idioms are mainly determined by the meaning of the word. Some issues of N400 elicited by Chinese characters deserve further research.

WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinuca Elena Claudia

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

Industrial disasters - the expert systems solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sachs, P.

1986-01-01

Six mistakes by the operators led to the accident at the Cherobyl nuclear reactor. These have been studied. It is suggested that an expert systems approach could prevent similar accidents. The expert system is a new approach to software programming where programs are required to perform intelligent analyses of complex situations. It separates the knowledge of a problem from the procedural code that performs the decision. An expert system will evaluate data and indicate a priority on alarms in real time. Now software systems can detect the cause of a problem in a process plant and present their findings to the operators in the control room. This should enable operators to make the correct decisions as they will know which underlying process faults are causing the alarms to operate. The Chernobyl post-mortem meeting made 13 proposals for improving safety. Two in particular are noted as relevant to expert advice systems; international collaboration on man-reactor relationships and a conference to explore the balance of automation and human action to minimise operating errors. (U.K.)

Expert Systems: A Challenge for the Reading Profession.

Science.gov (United States)

Balajthy, Ernest

The expert systems are designed to imitate the reasoning of a human expert in a content area field. Designed to be advisors, these software systems combine the content area knowledge and decision-making ability of an expert with the user's understanding and knowledge of particular circumstances. The reading diagnosis system, the RD2P System…

Innovation on Energy Power Technology (22)Challenge to Development of Expert System stored Knowledge of Expert Power Network Operators

Science.gov (United States)

Sakaguchi, Hideharu

Do you remember an expert system? I think there are various impressions about the system. For example, some might say “It reminds me of old days”. On the other hand, some might say “It was really troublesome”. About 25 years ago, from late 1980s to the middle of 1990s, when the Showa era was about to change into the Heisei Era, artificial intelligence boomed. Research and development for an expert system which was equipped with expertise and worked as smart as expert, was advanced in various fields. Our company also picked up the system as the new system which covered weak point of conventional computer technology. We started research and development in 1984, and installed an expert system in a SCADA system, which started operating in March 1990 in the Fukuoka Integrated Control Center. In this essay, as an electric power engineer who involved in development at that time, I introduce the situation and travail story about developing an expert system which support restorative actions from the outage and overload condition of power networks.

Expert Systems Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.